This is a 10* on OVER

It’s a battle of 7-0 teams in the Big 10 Friday. Iowa and Purdue both handled their business in the Big 10/ACC Championship Game earlier this week. Iowa beat Virginia 75-74 while Purdue crushed Florida State 93-65. What may make this a tough matchup for the Hawkeyes is they are just 98th in defensive efficiency. Purdue, who is the home team here, ranks 1st in the country in offensive efficiency. But not far behind them is tonight’s visitor, who is 3rd in the country in offensive efficiency (a measure of how many points a team scores per possession). So expect this to be a high-scoring affair Friday night in West Lafayette. The 75 points that Iowa scored in the last game was a season-low, if you can believe it. With the team they beat (Virginia) playing at the slowest tempo in the country, it makes sense that the Hawkeyes scored a season-low. But they average 94.0 points/game and Purdue plays at a much more reasonable tempo. The Boilermakers also average 92.4 points/game. The oddsmakers can’t make this total high enough, in our eyes. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on UNDER

The Big Ten drew first blood last night against the ACC, taking both games in this annual “Challenge.” The event really kicks into “high gear” on Tuesday with six games, including one featuring the Big Ten’s “best,” that being #2 ranked Purdue. The Boilermakers are 6-0 and host a Florida State team that is 5-1 with a couple of close wins. One of those close wins took place last Wednesday when the Seminoles needed overtime to scrape by Boston U 81-80 as 17.5 point favorites. Purdue has covered the number four straight times, including neutral court wins over North Carolina and Villanova. So this looks to be a challenge for FSU. We don’t like the idea of laying points though. What we do like is the Under. Florida State is going to be without three players, two of them starters - PG Evans and C Ngom. The Boilermakers are holding opponents to 56.5 points on 34.3% shooting here in West Lafayette. But the Seminoles also are holding teams to 38.5% shooting and 63 points/game. That last score (the one vs. Boston U) is misleading because the game went into OT. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on UNDER

This is today’s first tip in the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament, which takes place down in the Bahamas. We’ve got two programs accustomed to success. After going 26-5 last season and making it to the Sweet 16, Loyola Chicago is off to a 4-0 start. The Ramblers have won all four of those games by double digits, but it’s a step up in competition today as they face Michigan State, who has posted three straight double digit wins for Tom Izzo (following a season opening loss to Kansas). While former coach Porter Moser is now in Oklahoma, Loyola has most of its key players back from last year’s run to the Sweet 16 - save for Cameron Krutwig - and remains an elite defensive team. What we are expecting here though is for the Ramblers to cool off from three-point range. So far, they have shot 45.2% from behind the arc. That’s simply not going to continue. Michigan State is a top three defensive team in the country right now, allowing just 35.2% shooting overall. The Spartans' size is likely to cause problems for the Loyola shooters. After four straight Overs to start the year, the Ramblers are going to stay Under in this one in what should be a tight, defensive-minded affair. The Under is 5-1 in MSU’s last six games as a dog. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on OVER

Taking the Over the last time UCLA faced Gonzaga worked out pretty well. Now we obviously remember that game went to overtime. But the Over was already “in the bag” by the end of regulation with the game tied 81-81. Despite losing three starters from a team that went 31-1 (only loss in the National Championship Game), Gonzaga is averaging 93.2 points/game so far this year and just hit triple digits (107) last night against Central Michigan. The fewest points scored by the Bulldogs in any game this season is 84. UCLA is averaging 90.8 points through its first five games. Last night against Bellarmine they scored a season-low 75 as they were 8 of 27 on three-pointers and made just one free throw the entire game. Not only are these the two top teams in the country, both rank in the top ten in scoring nationally (Gonzaga #2, UCLA #8). It should be another high scoring game from these two as the Over is 23-8 when Gonzaga is off a straight up win by more than 20 points (they won by 53 on Monday). Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Robert Morris is still looking for its first win of the season. The Colonials are 0-2 with the losses coming to UCF and Kentucky. It’s definitely not a surprise that they are winless. RMU was getting 16 against UCF (covered) and then 23 against Kentucky. They’ve only scored 59.5 points/game, but did just give up 100 to UK on Thursday. Ohio is 2-0 with wins over Belmont and Cleveland State. The Bobcats put up 92 in the opener before turning in a solid effort at the defensive end vs. CSU, holding the Vikings to 56 points on 38% shooting. Opening the season with three straight road games where you’re a double digit underdog is tough. That’s the situation RMU faces here. We are unsure if they can get the cash like they did vs. UCF, but do expect this to be the Colonials' highest scoring game of the season so far. They’ve shot poorly in each of the first two games, particularly from three-point range where they are at just 24.4 percent. You’ve got to think that number will improve. Ohio shouldn’t have any issues scoring in this game either as they face a team that just gave up 100 points. The Over is 20-8 in RMU’s last 28 games and 10-3 in Ohio’s last 13 home games. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

Georgia State opened its season with a very easy 97-37 victory over a non-DI school (Brewton Parker). Northeastern wasn’t as fortunate on Tuesday as they lost 65-58 to Colgate. The Huskies also just missed out on covering the spread as they were 6.5-point underdogs. It was not a solid night at the offensive end as they made only 40% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 14 from three. Northeastern did earn a share of the CAA regular season title last season. But they lost their top player to the transfer portal. The good news is that on the defensive end, the Huskies held Colgate to 39.3% shooting. It was a game they could have won as they were up by two at half. Georgia State is not going to score 97 again on Friday as they are facing a “real” opponent for the first time. The Panthers will also give up more than the 37 they allowed in the first game. But don’t expect this game to go Over the total. The Under is 11-4 the last 15 times N’eastern has been a road underdog. In the second game of the year, both teams will struggle to make shots. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

There’s nothing quite like opening the College Basketball season at 12:30 local time on a Thursday. But that’s the case here in Vermillion as South Dakota hosts Air Force. Expect a low scoring affair in this afternoon's tilt. Air Force was bottom five in the country last year in scoring as they averaged only 58.7 points/game. The fact that the service academy has a height restriction makes sense for flying planes but not for playing basketball. There was a really “learning curve” for the Falcons last season as new coach Joe Scott brough the “Princeton offense” to Colorado Springs. The team really didn’t have the personnel to run the offense effectively. Don’t expect a ton of improvement this year. South Dakota lost its two top players from last season’s squad, so they’ll be scrambling at the offensive end as well. Key to the Coyotes’ success last year was shooting 38.9% from three-point range. They aren’t likely to be that prolific again in 2021-22, at least in the early portion of the campaign. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Gonzaga looks unstoppable as they go for the 1st National Championship in program history. They are massive favorites against UCLA Saturday as you just don’t see a double digit spread in the Final Four very often. But it’s the total that has our attention in this National Semifinal. While both teams are 3-1 Under their last four games, this has the potential to be a pretty high-scoring affair. We need not remind you that Gonzaga leads the nation in scoring at 91.6 points/game. They have scored at least 83 in all four Tournament games. This number will likely end up closing as the third lowest total for any Gonzaga game this season. UCLA being off such a low-scoring game (they beat Michigan 51-49 in the Elite Eight) is a big reason for that. But the Bruins scored plenty in the first four Tourney games (remember they were in the First Four). Yes, two of those games went to OT. But they still hit 65 in regulation in all of them and twice hit 73. Those kinds of numbers are reasonable for tonight and should they get there, this game will easily go Over. Gonzaga likes to play fast and UCLA is 5-1 Over this season when the total is 140 to 149.5. Gonzaga is shooting almost 55% from the field and only one of their last 11 games saw a fewer number of total points than this total. Their games average 160.1 total points. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Much has been made of USC’s defense in this Tournament. The Trojans have allowed 58.3 points per game and none of the three teams they’ve faced have been able to shoot better than 37.7 percent. But none of those teams were Gonzaga. The Bulldogs lead the country in scoring at 91.8 points per game and have scored 98, 87 and 83 in their three Tournament games. They shot almost 60 percent from the field against Creighton in the Sweet 16 win. The only concern here for Gonzaga is that they better shoot well again because USC has also been scoring at a high rate. The last two games have seen the Trojans make 57% of their shots and that includes 21 of 35 on three-pointers! So this should be quite the high scoring game in the Elite 8 as both teams should score at least 80. The Over is 39-17 in Gonzaga’s last 56 games and they are an astronomical 55% overall this year! USC is 6-3 Over after a game where they scored 80 or more points. Gonzaga likes to play fast and as a result, this one goes Over. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Oregon has gone Over in eight straight games. We like them to make it 10 against USC in the Sweet 16. Now the last time a Ducks’ game stayed Under, it was against USC. That regular season matchup saw them lose 72-58 in LA. Though they made 7 of 17 three-point attempts, the Ducks were an unsightly 16 of 40 on two-point attempts. That percentage will certainly improve in Sunday’s rematch, even though USC has done an excellent job on defense so far in the Tournament and really all season. With the teams combining for 130 in the first meeting, we only a handful more to send this one Over. Considering they combined to go just 13 of 22 from the charity stripe last month, we should get some more points there in this one. You also can’t forget that Oregon just dropped 95 points on Iowa in their last game. USC has scored 72 and 85 in their two games and shot 57.1% against Kansas. Oregon shot 55% vs. Iowa. Both USC opponents have shot worse than 30%. That can’t continue. The Over is 6-1-1 for USC following a SU win. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on the OVER

UCLA had to win three times last weekend. This first one wasn’t easy as they needed overtime to get by Michigan State in the “First Four.” But the Bruins then looked dominant against 6-seed BYU and 14-seed Abilene Christian. Defense was the key against Abilene Christian as only 44 points were allowed. But that was a 14-seed. Now UCLA faces Alabama, who just hung 96 points on Maryland in its Round of 32 game. The Crimson Tide are going for just the second Elite Eight appearance in program history. Nate Oats won’t ever be confused for Nick Saban but the Tide’s second year coach has done a great job at Tuscaloosa. Bama basically averages 80 points per game, a number they have matched or exceeded in four of their last six games. They like to play fast. UCLA does not, but it remains to be seen if they can control the tempo. UCLA does shoot the three well (37%) and Bama allowed Maryland to shoot 53% overall (37% from three). The Terps got to 77 points even though they attempted only seven free throws and made just three. The Over is 8-1 for Alabama following a game where they scored 90 or more points. Play on OVER

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THis is an 8* on OVER

Emotions should be high for this in-state battle of Top 25 teams. Loyola Chicago probably should have been seeded higher, though they did have trouble ousting undermanned Georgia Tech in the first round. The Ramblers won that game 71-60 (they pulled away late) despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to shoot 57.4%. Now they face top seeded Illinois, who shot 57.1% in its 78-49 dismantling of Drexel on Friday. We know Loyola usually plays great defense, but there’s a big difference between the Missouri Valley and one of the best teams in College Basketball. The Fighting Illini average 81.3 points/game and while this is a high O/U for a Loyola game, it’s relatively low for what they’re used to seeing in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini have had only two games this season close with totals in the 130’s. Both were vs. Wisconsin and both went Over. The Over is 6-0 for Loyola this season following a non-conference game and the only previou two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21, the game also went Over. Both teams shoot better than 50% overall from the field. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

LSU came up one point short in the SEC Tournament Championship, but if there’s one thing we can count on from the Tigers, it’s that they’ll score in bunches. They average 82.1 points/game, the eighth most in all of College Basketball. In their last 10 games, the Tigers have scored a minimum of 75 points. That’s the good news. The bad news is they gave up more than 70 in all but two of those 10 games. So expect St. Bonaventure, champions of the Atlantic 10 Conference, to score plenty on Saturday afternoon as well. The Bonnies scored 75, 71 and 74 in their three-game A-10 Tourney run. We find it very likely that both teams will score at least 70 points in this one. The Over is 6-1 in St. Bonaventure’s last seven neutral site games. The Over is 7-1 the last eight games where LSU was the favorite. Between these teams, there are nine double digit scorers. This is a really low total for an LSU game. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Alabama rallied from 15 down to defeat Tennessee in the semifinals. That was a much more difficult endeavor than the quarterfinals when the Crimson Tide blew past Mississippi State 85-48. Today, it’s a bit of a surprise that they face LSU in the SEC Tournament Final. The Tigers have won a couple close games in this tourney, 76-73 over Ole Miss and 78-71 over Arkansas. In yesterday’s upset, they held the second-seeded Razorbacks to 11 points below their season average and to just 6 of 26 from three-point range. Averaging more than 80 points/game, LSU is one of the top offensive teams in the country, but here they run into a team that happens to be #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Bama really “gave it” to LSU in both regular season games, winning by 30 and 18. In the 30-point rout, they scored 105 points. That won’t happen today. The Under is 5-1 in the Tide’s past six games. The second time these teams played this year, the final score ended up being 78-60 and while it may not wind up as lopsided this time, that’s the number of total points we’re looking for here. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on OVER

The Over worked quite well for us in Michigan’s win yesterday over Maryland as the Wolverines shot 51.7 percent, including 10 of 22 on three-pointers. They put up 79 points, their most in a game since a February 25th win over Iowa. So we’re going back to Over today as the Wolverines face rival Ohio State in the first Big Ten semifinal. The Buckeyes had to go to OT to get by Purdue yesterday as it was the second day in a row they blew a double digit lead in the second half. They wound up with 87 points, their most in a game since a loss to Michigan last month. That game soared past the number as it was a 92-87 final. We don’t see nearly 40 fewer points being scored this time, especially since the Buckeyes really struggle at the defensive end of the floor. They are 76th in the country in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among top 10 teams. That’s why they struggle to protect leads. Earlier, we brought up the 79 (points) Michigan scored on Iowa last month as the Hawkeyes are another team that struggles defensively. Look for a lot of points Saturday. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Ohio State has been an underdog. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

So Maryland and Michigan have each gone Under in their last five games. Maryland won Thursday as they erased an early deficit against Michigan State. The score ended up being 68-57, a comfortable win.They are allowing fewer than a 60-point average the past five games. But that streak will obviously be tested here by top seed Michigan. The Wolverines are an elite team at both ends of the floor. Offensively, production did dip the last three games. But you shouldn’t worry about it. These teams played twice in the regular season. Michigan won both. They scored 84 and 87 points. Both games went Over. What’s interesting here is the total is way lower than it was for either regular season matchup. Value? We think so. The Over is 4-0 for both squads their last four games versus teams that have winning records. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times they have played. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is now down to its semifinals and this event was not without headlines as yesterday Drake got to advance without even playing (its quarter final opponent N Iowa had a positive COVID test). In today’s first semi, top seeded Loyola (ranked #20) will face Indiana State. The Ramblers had no problems in yesterday’s 73-49 beatdown over Southern Illinois. That made it 16 straight games where Loyola has held its opposition below 60 points. The last time they failed to do so was all the way back on January 10th and ironically that was against the team they’ll face here in the semis, Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 76-71, the first of two times the teams played. (Loyola did win the second 58-48.) The Ramblers average more than 70 points/game, so they can take care of the majority of the scoring today. We do see Indiana State getting to 60, which is probably the key here to the game going Over. This total is REALLY low as ISU’s game vs. Evansville featured fewer than 100 total points. But it’s a new day and the Sycamores are 10-4 Over following a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 points. Loyola has gone Over in five straight neutral site games. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

This entire three-game package has almost exclusively featured Big 12 teams and we’ve got two in the top 20 here. Oklahoma, who at one point this season defeated three straight top 10 teams, is limping into the regular season finale. The Sooners have dropped three in a row including two straight to rival Oklahoma State. It was 79-75 in Stillwater Monday as they let the Cowboys shoot 52.9% from the field. Both losses to the Pokes were by four points. Now they face a Texas team that’s off a 14-point win over Iowa State on Tuesday. The Longhorns also beat Kansas last week, which we know is impressive. The first time these teams played, the game went way Over the total (OU won 80-79 in Austin). We look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring though. Both teams allow a pretty low field goal percentage for the year. Texas was held to 59 points by Texas Tech last Saturday. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

With both Missouri and Tennessee faltering in recent weeks, might we be looking at the SEC’s two premier teams here? Alabama certainly is in that discussion as they lead the conference with a 13-1 SU record (18-5 overall). The Crimson Tide are deservedly ranked #6 in the country right now, although two of their last three wins have come by four points or less. Now they head to Arkansas, who has won its last seven SEC games and has revenge on the mind Wednesday night. When these teams played in Tuscaloosa last month, the Tide ripped the Razorbacks 90-59. It was over in the first half as Bama took a 42-19 lead into the break. Things are obviously going to be a lot more competitive tonight in Fayetteville. Arkansas is also well rested as they haven’t played in over a week. The expectation is that these teams are going to put up a lot of points, however the Razorbacks are giving up only 63.1 points/game at home. That’ll not only make this one more competitive than last night, but also lower scoring. The fact that Alabama is #2 in defensive efficiency can’t be discounted either. Play on UNDER

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This is 10* on UNDER

Florida State returned from a two-week break (COVID) to defeat Wake Forest 92-85 in overtime Saturday. That final margin of victory wasn’t nearly enough to cover the 13-point spread, but the Seminoles will take the win considering they trailed by two with five seconds left in regulation. They’d let a double digit lead slip away and nearly lost at home for the first time in over two years. Now it’s a Top 25 showdown with #9 Virginia, a team that has lost only one time in 2021. The last eight FSU games have all gone Over, but considering Virginia just held North Carolina to 48 points on Saturday, this one has a good chance of going “the other way.” Plus, the Under has hit 11 straight times when Virginia has visited Tallahassee! As always, Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. They are allowing just 58.8 points/game. They are 5-1 Under in road games. The 48-hour turnaround for both teams will probably result in below average shooting and FSU could again be without Balsa Koprivica. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Iowa doesn’t have a problem scoring on anybody as they are third in the country with an 87.4 points/game scoring average. They’ve actually failed to hit that average in six straight games, which partly explains why they’re just 2-4 in that stretch. But the Hawkeyes did down Rutgers 79-66 earlier this week and now look to take care of a Michigan State team that is simply not among the elite in the Big 10 anymore, let alone among the elite in the country. The Spartans are a money-burning 4-13 ATS, although they have won two straight games for only the second time in two months. Those wins were against Penn State and Nebraska though, probably the conference’s two worst teams (Nebraska is definitely the worst). They won those games in part because the opponents were terrible shooting from three-point range, but that will almost assuredly not be the case today as Iowa is making 39 percent of its three-point shots. But the Hawkeyes have an issue in that they allow more than 80 points/game on the road. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on OVER

A couple games versus a pretty bad Charlotte team is what Middle Tennessee needed last weekend. The Blue Raiders had lost six in a row before that and five of the losses were by more than 10 points. But they defeated the 49ers 66-65 and 73-60, providing a brief glimmer of positivity in what has been a pretty awful season. At 10-5 on the year, Marshall is doing a lot better than MTSU, though they had some unscheduled breaks in January. They did play last weekend though and could only muster a split with Old Dominion despite being favored to win both games. The loss was by one point and the win was by 20. They should win big tonight. The game should also end up being high scoring. The Thundering Herd have scored more than 80 points in three consecutive games. They are basically averaging 80 per game for the entire season. Middle Tennessee does not score very much, but if they can reach 60 (doable!), then the Over is all but assured in this one. The Over is 4-0 the last four times MTSU has been off an ATS win. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

These teams played two weeks ago with West Virginia winning 88-87 as a 2.5-point favorite. While it was a back and forth game, the O/U was never in doubt as the total for the game was 144.5 and the teams went way Over that. The total is even LOWER for tonight’s second meeting, which may be a surprise to some, but this is a matchup we had circled to play the Under all along. The number of total points scored in Morgantown should be viewed as an aberration. The teams went 21 of 41 on three-point attempts, which is way more production than the 13 of 39 average that they combine for on a per game basis this season. The likely significant decrease in 3-point marksmanship tonight should alone account for this game staying Under. But if you need more convincing, note that Texas Tech allows only 56.5 PPG at home. Five of their last seven games have been on the road, which is why we’ve been seeing some higher scoring games from them recently. But in the last home game, they held Oklahoma to only 52 points and that game had just 109 total points scored. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on the UNDER

#2 Baylor puts its unbeaten 16-0 record on the line tonight, in what should be its toughest test to date, against #6 Texas. The Longhorns were supposed to face Kentucky in the Big 12-SEC Challenge last weekend. But that game was cancelled. Baylor didn’t have much problem with its SEC opponent, beating what had been a red hot Auburn team, 84-72. The Bears’ average margin of victory for the season is nearly 25 points/game and only one time (an 8-point win over Kansas on 1/18) have they failed to win by double digits. They are top three in the country at both ends of the floor. They’ve gone Over in four straight games, but had gone Under in four straight previous to that. Texas has gone Over in six of its last seven. But we anticipate a lower-scoring affair Tuesday night. This is a pretty high total for both teams. For Texas, if the current number holds, it will be the highest total for any game in 2020-21. The Under has hit the last two times these sides have met. Those games saw just 97 and 101 points scored. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Oklahoma has ripped off three consecutive wins against Top 10 opponents, beating Kansas, Texas and Alabama. What a run that is! Saturday’s win in Tuscaloosa may have been the most impressive of the bunch considering how hot the Crimson Tide were and the Sooners were without their leading scorer. Another starter (Alondes Williams) was also out. Whether or not Williams and/or Austin Reeves (the leading scorer) will play tonight has yet to be determined. But we still like this game vs. Texas Tech to go Over the total. The Red Raiders are also off an impressive win in the Big 12/SEC Challenge, theirs coming at LSU where they scored the game’s final 12 points to make it a 76-71 final score. Texas Tech will be the 4th straight Top 10 team that OU has faced, a murderous stretch for anybody. You’ve got to question how solid the Sooners will be defensively. They give up 79 points/game away from home. Seven of Texas Tech’s last eight games have gone Over and their defense, which is usually very good, has been shaky of late as well. They’ve allowed 88 and 71 points the last two outings. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Gonzaga keeps rolling as Thursday’s 90-62 victory over San Diego makes it 16 wins without a loss for the #1 ranked team in the country. There are only three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. Them, #2 Baylor and a Drake team whose season was interrupted by COVID. Believe it or not, tonight marks the first time all year the Zags have had to play a second straight game on the road. We certainly don’t have to worry about them scoring though. They lead the country with 94.1 points per game. But the fact they allow 76.4 on the road is notable and leads us to believe this game vs. Pepperdine is going Over. Pepperdine just beat BYU, by the way. That was here in Malibu. In the two home games before that, both of which the Waves won, they scored 80+ points. So you can see why the total has been set high tonight. But in our estimation it is not high enough. Both teams are 6-1 Under their last seven games, which includes a meeting in Spokane that Gonzaga won 95-70. But the total is lower this time. If the teams were to equal the total number of points scored in the first meeting, it would be an Over. We think more points will be scored. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Watch this game get high-scoring in a hurry. Iowa averages 90.7 points per game. That’s second most in the country (Gonzaga is #1). So it sure was shocking to see the Hawkeyes score a season-low 69 in their last game. That loss to Indiana snapped a five-game win streak. They’d also covered the number in all five of those wins. Safe to say you can look for a bounce back game at the offensive end tonight. They are still #1 in the country in offensive efficiency. After making only 21.3 percent of their three-pointers vs. Indiana, you’ve got to expect more prolific shooting tonight. But we are concerned about their defensive play. The Hawkeyes are giving up 83.2 points per game when they are not the home team this season. Illinois averages 82.9 points per game. The Over is 10-5 in Iowa games. Illinois shoots better than 50% from the field - for the season. The Over is 7-2 in the Illini’s last nine home games against teams that have winning road records. Neither side will have an issue scoring here. Play on OVER

This is an 8* on UNDER

BYU has played well of late. The Cougars have won four in a row and eight of their last nine. The lone loss was to Gonzaga. This afternoon they travel to face a Pepperdine team they just beat on Saturday by a score of 65-54. That was the Waves’ fourth loss in their last six games. You’ll note the low-scoring nature of the previous contest as BYU only shot 37.5% that game, but they might as well have “made them all” compared to Pepperdine’s paltry 28.8 FG%. For BYU, it was the second lowest field goal percentage for a game this season. It was Pepperdine’s lowest. Maybe the two teams combined to score more this afternoon, but it still won’t be enough to send this rematch Over the total. The Under is 5-0 in BYU road games as they go from averaging 77.8 points/game at home to 61.3 away from home. The key issue is that they shoot only 28.8% from three-point range on the road. Pepperdine is holding visiting teams to 27.9% from behind the arc this season while at the same time being a poor three-point shooting team. Five of the Waves’ last six games have stayed Under. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on UNDER

Auburn comes into this game having covered four straight, but they’ve won straight up just twice in the last seven tries. It was a disappointing 75-73 loss at Arkansas earlier in the week and now they head to South Carolina to face a Gamecocks team who is in no better shape. South Carolina has been battling COVID issues all season as coach Frank Martin is just now returning from his second absence. The Gamecocks seemingly are finally healthy now, though they’ve lost two in a row, both on the road. Auburn is also as close to full strength as they’ve been all year with Sharife Cooper having rejoined the lineup on January 9th. Cooper has made the Tigers a more explosive team offensively as they’ve scored 90 or more twice since his arrival. But Martin’s South Carolina teams always seem to give Auburn some trouble. Auburn has lost three in a row here in Columbia - by an average of 13.3 points/game. The Gamecocks are great at defending the three-point line (30.7% allowed), getting rebounds (1st in SEC) and forcing turnovers (16.6 per game). So this could very well be a fairly low-scoring affair. Auburn is one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country, which helps when playing the Under. The Tigers are 6-2 Under as underdogs this season. Play on UNDER

AAA

THIS IS A 10* ON UNDER

Though it’s an early start time Friday (Noon local), we expect Wright State to “show up” for this Horizon League tilt. Despite its current second place standing, the Raiders are probably the best team in this conference as they demonstrated last week when they crushed 1st place Cleveland State by 36. WSU allowed just 49 points in that game and shouldn’t have much trouble slowing down an IUPUI team that averages only 60.0 points at home. But the “catch” here is that IUPUI is only allowing 63.3 points/game at home. The Jaguars upset Northern Kentucky twice last week, winning 74-69 and 65-63 as an underdog of eight and seven points respectively. Those wins came on the road too. They’ve played just seven games because of COVID and the last two at home were played three weeks ago, both vs. Cleveland State. They allowed 59 and 65 points those two games. The Under has hit in all three IUPUI games this season. From a field goal percentage standpoint, Wright State’s defense is as good as it gets, limiting foes to 37.6. This should be a low-scoring, early game. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Big game here with unbeaten Baylor (#2 in the country) taking on Kansas (#6). The Jayhawks will almost certainly be LOWER in the rankings by tipoff as they lost their most recent game, which was all the way back on Tuesday, 75-70 at Oklahoma State. Defensively speaking, the Jayhawks were terrible in that game as they gave up 37 fast-break points. They’ll need to be better against Baylor, but will it even matter? The Bears average 91.2 points/game in Waco and coming off two subpar offensive efforts, we see them regaining their touch tonight. The Bears’ defensive numbers are outstanding, but Kansas will be the best offensive team they’ll have faced so far. After playing Texas Tech on Saturday, how much will Baylor have left in the tank defensively? It’s a tough turnaround. The Over has hit in four of Kansas’ previous five games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

FIU is averaging 88.6 points/game so far, but that number will almost assuredly start to come down. The lofty scoring average has more to do with whom the Panthers have faced thus far. They just hung 113 on Carver Bible, a performance that you certainly shouldn’t put much stock in. Two games ago, FIU went to double overtime with Ga Southern, so that point total was artificially inflated. Bottom line: their hot shooting to start this season is due to cool off. Old Dominion hasn’t shot well on the road (39.4%) nor from three point range anywhere (27% overall). This figures to be among the highest totals for any Monarchs game all season. A team that doesn’t shoot it well away from home going against a team due for a downturn in shooting has all the makings of an Under, particularly on New Year’s Day when both teams could be a bit “sleepy.” This is our top total of the month from Conference USA. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Minnesota has had a very impressive last three games as they’ve knocked off St. Louis (who was undefeated at the time), Iowa (a top 10 team) and Michigan State (by 25 points). However, all three of those wins did come at home. Tonight they hit the road to face Wisconsin and the Golden Gophers certainly hope this goes better than their only previous road game did. A 92-65 loss at Illinois is the only blemish on Minnesota’s resume this season and while losing to one of the best teams in the country isn’t a big deal, getting blown out is never a good look. Wisconsin isn’t going to be in a good mood here as they are off a loss to Maryland which snapped a 5-0 SU and ATS run. Both teams have been going Over a lot recently, but we see that changing here as the Badgers allow just 57.9 points/game at home. This will be Minnesota’s fifth consecutive game against a team that entered either unbeaten or ranked in the Top 15. These teams met twice last season and the totals for those games were 129 and 125.5. This one is much higher. Wisconsin plays at a very slow pace and Minnesota, who has been getting to the FT line A LOT lately, won’t get there as much today. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Seton Hall probably won’t be the least bit bothered by being the underdog in this game. The Pirates are a perfect 10-0 ATS the past three seasons as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Furthermore, they are catching Xavier off its first loss of the season. The Musketeers went down at the hands of #11 Creighton, 66-61, but did at least cover as 7-pt underdogs. These teams met twice last season with the road team, an underdog each time, winning both games. But Seton Hall plus the points isn’t the best course of action tonight, rather it’s playing the Over. Xavier has been a bit of a “scoring machine” as it is averaging 81.6 points/game for the year and 85.1 points/game at home. Seton Hall is averaging 76.7 points/game and gives up 77.0 on the road. This is a game where both teams seem destined to score over 70 points. Considering that, the O/U looks to be too low. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Xavier has been off a SU loss. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Fresno State and Colorado State haven’t played all that much this season. In fact, Fresno has played just twice - both games against non-board teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific). So the fact they are 2-0 really doesn’t mean much coming into the MWC opener. Colorado State is 3-1, their only loss coming in a putrid offensive effort vs. St. Mary’s where they scored all of 33 points. Under is our call in this one as neither team is in much of a rhythm right now. Against Fresno Pacific, who is not even a Division I team, Fresno State could only muster 39.1% shooting from the field, which is just terrible. On the bright side, they’ve held both opponents this year below 35% shooting. Colorado State has held its last three opponents all below 37%. That one stinker vs. St. Mary’s is obviously holding the Rams’ offensive numbers down. But this isn’t really a great offensive team by any stretch. Facing a “real” team for the 1st time this year will be a shock for Fresno State and this game stays Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

It’s not been a strong start to the year for Towson, although that was probably to be expected as Tigers’ first three games have come against Virginia, San Francisco and Buffalo. They were the dog in all three games and are a predictable 0-3. It’s been almost a MONTH since we’ve seen them, due to COVID cancellations. Their ATS record is also 0-3. George Mason is also 0-3 ATS, although they did win their last two games SU - beating Howard and VMI. The Patriots’ schedule has obviously been a lot less challenging than Towson’s, however there are several suspensions that GMU is currently dealing with. We like this game to go Over as it’s a low total and the shooting from both sides is due for improvement. Towson has made less than 40% of its field goal attempts thus far, which is insane. They have allowed at least 74 points in every game and unfortunately (for them), we don’t see that changing. George Mason gave up 77 and 70 its first two games. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Belmont is off and running with a 7-1 start to the season. The Bruins are averaging 80 points/game. The only loss was a bit of a head-scratcher as they fell, as 17.5-point home favorites, to Samford. Of course, Samford is a team that scores plenty of points as was very obvious with that game ending up 96-83. Evansville isn’t going to score anywhere in that neighborhood, however. The Purple Aces are putting up an average of just 65.2 points in their five games so far and only one time have they topped 68. Evansville hasn’t shot well so far as they’re below 40% overall from the field. One area where they’ve REALLY struggled is defending the three-point line. Opponents are making 46% of their threes against the Purple Aces and the two previous teams that visited here hit 55% from behind the arc! You really can’t get any worse than that, so even if Evansville’s actual defense doesn’t improve, the opposition’s shooting will cool off regardless. Belmont is not a great three-point shooting team. This one stays Under. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

Considering Texas Tech’s defensive prowess, going Over might seem like a “play at your own risk” type situation. But a) the total is low here and b) Kansas can score. The Jayhawks have faced a lot of top teams already and are averaging 81.6 points/game. They are shooting nearly 40% from three! Last time out they went for 95 points. Yes, that was against a terrible Omaha team. But it was also the 4th game of 90 or more points for Kansas this season. We don’t need nearly that many for an Over tonight. Texas Tech has scored 80 or more in four of its seven games. Again, you’ve got to factor in the competition. But asking both Kansas and Tech to score 65 tonight doesn’t seem like it’s asking for much. Kansas likes to play fast, so it will be interesting if they can push the tempo. We think they will - at least enough to have an effect on the scoring. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Kansas has been an underdog and 7-1 their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record. Texas Tech has that same record against .500 or better foes. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

William & Mary has played just one game so far and it was an 86-78 loss to old Colonial rival Old Dominion. The Tribe will now face the Colonials, although again not a conference rival, in George Washington Monday. GW is just 1-4 with the lone win coming against Coppin State. The other four games, losses to Navy, Hampton, UMBC and Delaware, have seen them give up lots of points. Truthfully, it’s been a terrible start for the Colonials. We would never lay points with them, at least right now, but do think the defense is going to improve. Honestly, they haven’t been that bad at the defensive end of the floor, save for the game where they got blitzed by UMBC. Three of the last four opponents have shot less than 41%. William & Mary won’t shoot 50% again like they did vs. ODU. This game was supposed to be played on December 5th, but got rescheduled because of COVID. It’s the first meeting in 17 years between the two Virginia schools. It’ll end up lower-scoring than expected. W&M is 5-1 Under as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

USC looks to rebound from its first loss of the season here, hosting UC Irvine. The Trojans fell 61-58 to UConn last Thursday, shooting only 35.8% in the process. That wasn’t just a season-low in FG%, it was also the 1st time the Trojans were held below 50% overall shooting in a game this year. Their defense has been dominant in holding three straight opponents below 35% shooting. But it’s hard to keep doing that. UC Irvine is off a win where it scored over 100 points, though the opponent (La Sierra?) had a lot to do with that. Still we expect the Anteaters to score more than they’re expected to tonight. The problem will be that they’ve allowed over 80 PPG to Division I opponents thus far and Southern Cal figures to have a big bounce back game at the offensive end. The Over is 4-0 in UC Irvine’s last four road games and 5-1 their last six as an underdog. Play OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on UNDER

Arkansas will look to make it 3 for 3 to open the year when they host UT Arlington Wednesday night. The Razorbacks opened the season by winning by 80 (!) against Miss Valley State and then by 15 against North Texas. UT Arlington is unbeaten against the spread (3-0), but just 1-2 straight up as they suffered close losses to Oklahoma State and Louisiana Tech before beating Northwestern State on Saturday. The fact that Arkansas has scored 142 points in a game is something that caused the oddsmakers to pay attention. So expect high totals the next few games. But the offense quickly came back down to Earth against North Texas, scoring “only” 69 points. They also did a really solid job defensively in that game. Giving up an average of less than 60 points on 33% shooting is something we like to see. UT Arlington has gone Under eight straight times as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. They are shooting only 29% from three so far. Arkansas is 11-3 Under as a home favorite of more than 12 points. Number is too high here. Play on UNDER

AAA

This is an 8* on the OVER

We get a Top 10 battle Tuesday night with Duke hosting Michigan State. The Blue Devils have definitely had the Spartans number through the years, winning eight of the nine head to head meetings. Both teams struggled to hold onto big leads in their last game and turnovers have been an ongoing issue as well. We expect this to turn into a bit of a shootout. Duke let Coppin State make 10 three-pointers on Saturday. Michigan State obviously possesses a much better shot-making ability than Coppin State. They’ve scored 80 in both games with the Over being 2-0. Duke is no slouch offensively either as Coach K’s charges made 53.1% of its shots in the first game. When these teams played last year, it was all Blue Devils in an 87-75 win that easily surpassed the 142.5 point O/U line. Lots of different names this go around, especially on the Duke side, but the firepower is still there. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Gonzaga and Kansas would have been two of the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament that was never played last March. The Zags were 31-2 and had already won the WCC Tournament when the season was paused. Kansas was 28-3 (Big 12 Tournament never played, on a 16-game win streak, and many thought they were the best team in the country. These two “blue-bloods” open the 2020-21 season against one another in Fort Myers. Gonzaga has won 30 or more games six of the last nine seasons including each of the last four. Some feel this is Mark Few’s best team ever. They are going to average a lot of points. Florida transfer Andrew Nembhard’s transfer was just granted (he can play immediately), so the roster is even more talented. Gonzaga averaged 87.4 points/game last season. Compared to last season, Kansas isn’t going to be as strong defensively as they were a year ago, due to a couple departures. The Jayhawks have gone Over five straight times as a neutral site underdog. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Washington and Arizona were the Pac 12’s biggest underachievers for the 2019-20 season. Washington finished in last place with a 5-13 conference record and while Arizona ended up a more modest 5th in the standings, that was also well below expectations. This first round tournament matchup is a rematch from the last regular season game for each. Washington won 69-63 in Tucson, which was certainly an upset as the Huskies were 10-point underdogs. We expect this rematch to feature a lot more scoring - from both sides. Prior to upsetting Arizona, Washington’s last four games had all gone Over the total. They’d just scored 90 points in an upset of Arizona State two days prior to winning in Tucson. Arizona had scored 83 in its previous game. They also beat Washington 75-72 in Seattle back in January. What’s interesting about the two games vs. the Huskies is that Arizona made only 26 two-point baskets on 72 attempts. That’s 36%! You have to figure they’ll shoot better today. Play OVER Washington-Arizona

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

St. Mary’s and BYU split their two regular season meetings. Each won a close game at home. The rubber match takes place Monday night in Vegas. For two teams that have spent the season battling it out for “who’s #2?” in the West Coast Conference (Gonzaga obviously #1), a win here all but clinches a NCAA Tournament berth. Both teams ended the regular season at 24-7 overall. But BYU got the #2 spot by finishing 13-3 in conference play while St. Mary’s was 11-5. So St. Mary’s had to play an extra game to get to this tournament semifinal matchup. They beat Pepperdine 89-82 on Saturday. The Gaels last four games have all gone Over the total with them averaging more than 80 points/game. Both games vs. BYU also went Over with the final scores being 81-79 and 87-84.  Look for another high scoring game tonight. All four times St. Mary’s has been an underdog this year, the Over has cashed. The Over is also 7-1 when they play on one or zero days rest. Play OVER St. Mary’s/BYU

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Minnesota has basically played its way OUT of NCAA Tournament contention. They’ve lost six of their last seven games including three straight close ones. Losses to Maryland, Wisconsin and Indiana have all been by five or less points. All three games also went Over. It’s good deal then for the Gophers that they are getting Nebraska in the regular season finale. The worst team in the Big 10, the Cornhuskers are 2-17 in conference games and have lost 15 in a row. The Under 7-1 in Minnesota games this season when the total is 140 to 149.5 and they are keeping teams below 65 points per game at home. Therefore, look for a total reversal of fortune for the Gophers today. Besides Nebraska, there’s only one other “bad” team in the Big 10 this year and that’s Northwestern who Minnesota recently kept to 57 points. All three home games where Minnesota was favored by 12.5 or more this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Nebraska-Minnesota

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

A win tonight means Oregon finishes with no worse than a share of the Pac 12 title. At home they are favored to beat Stanford, but look for a low scoring game as the Cardinal are surprisingly one of the better defensive teams in all college basketball. They are 6th in efficiency. They give up 61.9 points per game but Oregon isn’t far behind allowing 64.2 at home. The Ducks lost 70-60 in Palo Alto back in January, a game where they were held to a field goal percentage of only 32.8. Oregon had a huge scoring outburst Thursday vs. Cal (scored 90) but also held the Bears to just 56.  Play UNDER Stanford-Oregon

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is a first round game in the WCC Tournament. Both Portland and Santa Clara face a tall mountain to climb as they’ll have to win five times in six days to capture the championship, including needing to beat Gonzaga. Now that we’ve ditched that fantasy, let’s look at the actual matchup. Portland finished last in the WCC with a 1-15 record. They haven’t won a game since January 4th. They are terrible. Santa Clara is the 7-seed in the Tournament and just beat Portland 73-68 on Saturday. That game just finished Under. Look for this one to do the same as Saturday’s game saw the two teams combine to make 18 three-pointers. That won’t happen at a neutral site. Play UNDER Portland-Santa Clara

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

Creighton was on a real roll before running into St. John’s on Sunday. We took the Johnnies in that one as they put up 91 points in a big-time upset. Creighton won’t be giving up nearly that many points tonight though. They are back in Omaha where they - on average - give up far less points per game. While their scoring also goes up, they happen to be facing a Georgetown team that has failed to crack 70 in three of its past four games. The Hoyas have lost all four as they most certainly won’t be joining the majority of the Big East in the NCAA Tournament, save for them winning the conference tourney. With so many players injured, we don’t look for Georgetown to do much offensively in this game. Creighton won’t have to either, which lends itself to a play on the Under. The Under is already 6-2 in Georgetown’s last eight road games. Play UNDER on Georgetown-Creighton

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

When these teams met in Boulder three weeks ago, the game flew Over with Colorado winning 81-74. Not only did the Buffaloes go 30 of 40 from the free throw line, they were 11 of 21 on three-pointers. In fact, they and Stanford combined to go 23 of 42 from three-point range. That was easily one of Stanford’s worst defensive games this season. While them getting to host the rematch will certainly lead to better play on that end, we look for this matchup to go Over again. It may not be as high-scoring as last time, but it doesn’t need to be. In fact, it doesn’t need to be close. The last one went Over by 25 points. Stanford has scored at least 70 points in its last three games with all of those being wins. Colorado just gave up 76 to a bad Cal team and that was at home. Stanford can really shoot the ball well. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve been a home favorite. Play OVER Colorado-Stanford

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

That UCLA is tied for the Pac 12 lead right now is rather stunning. The Bruins have won six in a row to get to 11-5 in conference play and 18-11 overall. This is a team that was basically “left for dead” coming into February. Unless they end up winning the Pac 12 Tournament, we’re not even sure they wind up making the NCAA Tournament. Arizona is considered a lot safer for the Big Dance right now, although they’ve lost two straight to fall 1.5 games behind UCLA and Oregon in the conference. This is a rematch of a game played on Feb 8, won by UCLA 65-52. That win is what began UCLA’s current roll. They held Arizona to just 25.4% shooting (in Tucson) as the Wildcats made just 9 of 36 two-point attempts. It was a similarly awful shooting night for Arizona in their last game as they lost 57-48 to USC. But they are 2-0 SU/ATS this year when they are off a game in which they got held to 60 points or less. Look for Arizona to regain its “shooting touch” tonight, but also for UCLA to keep its hot shooting going. Play OVER Arizona-UCLA

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Kansas is coming off its biggest win of the season as they won 64-61 at #1 Baylor on Saturday, thus avenging their only conference loss of the season. With #2 Gonzaga having also lost Saturday, expect the Jayhawks (winners of 12 in a row) to be the new #1 when this game vs. Oklahoma State tips off Monday. We played the Under in the Baylor game, which was a winner, and it’s back to playing the total tonight. Only this time we’re looking at the Over due to the opponent being so lax defensively. In our writeup for the Kansas-Baylor game, we went into great detail about just how good both teams are defensively. Well, Oklahoma State is not great defensively. One thing the Cowboys did to impress us though is score 86 points in a win over rival Oklahoma on Saturday. Kansas has scored 87 and 91 points in its last two home games. So all signs point to a high-scoring affair tonight on ESPN. The Jayhawks average 78.7 points/game in Lawrence and the Over has hit the previous three times OSU has been a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Play OVER Oklahoma St-Kansas

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

Temple is off a wild 93-89 win over UConn. Double overtime was needed to get the victory, which was the second time the Owls prevailed in OT in their last four games. Today they’ll head to East Carolina to face a team not making much noise in the American this year. The Pirates 4-10 conference record has them a loss away from being tied for last place with Tulane, a team that they’ve beaten twice. However, ECU has at least been competitive of late. In the last week, they’ve lost by only three to Cincinnati and by four to Memphis. So Temple should consider itself forewarned. What we expect here is a high-scoring affair. While recent Temple scores have been boosted by overtime, they can still pile up the points today. When they hosted East Carolina on Feb 1, they scored 76 points. The Pirates shot very poorly in that game and should improve on their percentages now that they get to play at home. They’ve scored at least 67 in three of the last four contests. Play OVER Temple-East Carolina

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

This is the game Kansas has been waiting for. Back on January 11th, they lost at home to Baylor by a score of 67-55. Since then they’ve 11 straight wins, seven of those coming by double digits. But top-ranked Baylor isn’t going to roll over here either. The Bears have won 23 straight games. They’ve covered 17 of 25 ball games including 10 of 13 in conference play. Key to this game will be defense. These are two of the top three teams in defensive efficiency in the entire country. Kansas gives up 57.5 points/game on the road. Baylor gives up 56.2 points/game at home. The first game stayed Under by 10 points yet this O/U is just three points lower. Oddsmakers haven’t adjusted enough. The Jayhawks’ OU record in Big 12 games is 9-1. With this game being so important, both teams will be playing lockdown defense. Play on UNDER KANSAS/BAYLOR

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Harvard trails Yale and Princeton by one game, so getting to host the latter is a big deal tonight. The Crimson won both games last week - 85-63 over Cornell and 77-63 over Columbia. Both were played right here at Lavietes Pavilion. Princeton also got to play twice at home last week, but they split the pair, losing to Yale while beating Brown. The Tigers did defeat the Crimson earlier this season 70-69 on what was a hot shooting night for them from distance (went 13 of 23 on three-pointers). That was the last Harvard game to stay Under as the last four have all gone Over. But Princeton won’t shoot as well this time around. Harvard defends exceptionally well when they’re at home, giving up just 59.4 points/game. Princeton is 6-0 Under this year in games where they came in with 5 or 6 days rest. That includes the two Friday games since Ivy League play started. Don’t forget Harvard is without top scorer Bryce Aiken as well. A lower scoring game than the first matchup, which we think this will be, makes for an easy call on the Under. Play UNDER Princeton-Harvard

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The SEC as a whole appears to be a bit overrated, but Kentucky still remains the king of this conference in our eyes. The 12th ranked Wildcats enter Saturday at 19-5 overall and 9-2 in SEC play, the latter record landing them in a first place tie with both LSU and Auburn for the time being. UK has won seven of eight with the only loss coming to Auburn and they’ve got a game at LSU on deck. Here they face an Ole Miss team that has covered six in a row. The Rebels are 4-2 in that same stretch, the only SU losses coming to … Auburn and LSU. Both Kentucky and Ole Miss faced double digit deficits in the first half Tuesday before coming back to win handily. We look for this to be somewhat of a low-scoring affair, mainly because Mississippi only averages 61.7 points/game on the road. Kentucky gives up only 62.9 points/game at home. The key then becomes how well the Rebels can defend. Seeing as how they’ve held the last five opponents to below 40% shooting, we think the answer is “well.” Six of the Rebels seven road games this year have stayed Under. Play UNDER Ole Miss/Kentucky

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

Akron just notched a pretty big win, beating MAC-leading Bowling Green 74-59. That the Zips were a 6.5-point favorite for that contest should tell you who oddsmakers think is the best team in this conference. Tonight’s game is against a wounded Central Michigan team that has lost two in a row. Tuesday, the Chippewas lost 73-70 at home to Eastern Michigan. They were outscored 45-35 in the second half. It was a much different showing that what they turned in their own home win over Bowling Green where CMU finished with 92 points. Make no mistake about it - the Chippewas are one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They average 81.3 points/game, which is sixth most in the entire country. The offensive numbers at home are eye-popping. It’s a 90.3 point/game average here. That’s enough to convince us that Over is the correct call here. Akron isn’t going to match the defensive efforts from its last two games. But they should hit their 76.0 point/game average. Play OVER Akron/Central Michigan

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Playing on FS-1 was kind to #19 Butler on Wednesday as they beat #10 Villanova at the buzzer 79-76. They are hoping history repeats itself Sunday when they travel to face a well-rested Marquette team that’s 11-1 at home and been off for eight days. The last time Marquette played, they came from behind to defeat last place DePaul 76-72. They’ll obviously take the win, but it ended a 5-game ATS streak as they were 7.5-point favorites. When these teams met last month at Hinkle Fieldhouse, it was an 89-85 Butler win. Marquette hoisted 38 three-pointers and made 16 of them. But it still wasn’t enough. We look for the rematch to be a lot lower scoring. It must be noted that the first meeting did go to overtime. It was 71-71 at the end of regulation. Both teams are solid defensively as Marquette gives up only 63.8 points/game at home while Butler gives up just 60.6 points/game period. The Under is 4-1 in the five games so far where Butler has been an underdog. Play UNDER Butler-Marquette

AAA

analysis soon

This is a 10* on the OVER

Louisville is ranked #5 in the new polls, the highest ranking for any ACC team. That makes sense as the Cardinals are the first place team in the ACC with a 10-1 record. They’ve won eight straight games and five of those were on the road. Hosting Wake Forest tonight should lead to another win. But the Demon Deacons are getting a lot of points. So let’s instead focus on the fact all but one of WF’s 11 ACC games have gone Over the total. The “one” was the last game they played, a 56-44 win against Clemson, an awful shooting night for both sides. Look for Louisville to put up plenty of points here. Two of Wake’s last three road games have seen them give up 90. Wake should score at least 65 here, making the Over an easy call here. Play OVER Wake Forest-Louisville

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

North Carolina’s season-long struggles are well documented at this point. The Tar Heels, who just lost as 12-point favorites to Boston College on Saturday, are 10-11 overall and it would take a miracle run in the ACC Tournament for them to get into March Madness. But at least Cole Anthony is now back and he scored a team-high 26 in the 71-70 loss to BC. The struggles of UNC and some other ACC squads has resulted in a top-heavy conference in 2020 with three top 10 teams and no one else guaranteed to make the Big Dance. One of those top teams is Florida State, who did lose a game last week (61-56 at Virginia), but then quickly bounced back with a 74-63 win at Va Tech on Saturday. Both games last week were road games for the Seminoles. Back in Tallahassee we are likely to see more scoring from them tonight. They are averaging 82.8 points at home where they have won all 10 times. North Carolina averages a solid 71.5 points/game and now has Anthony back, but defense is their issue. Only two ACC opponents have been unable to hit 71 points on Roy Williams team. FSU has gone Over in four straight and the Over is 10-1 for them at home when the number is 140 to 149.5. Play OVER North Carolina-Florida State

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER 

Austin Peay has been nothing short of incredible since conference play began. The Governors have opened with nine consecutive wins over OVC teams and have covered the spread in all nine games. They are headed for an eventual showdown with Murray State, who also has a 9-0 conference record, but the two unbeatens won’t play until Feb 13. Not only is Austin Peay unbeaten in conference play, they also have a 10-0 record at home, which is where they’ll be Saturday vs. Eastern Illinois. The visiting Panthers are five games off the pace set by Austin Peay and Murray State in the OVC and just lost to Murray State two nights ago, 73-70. They did easily cover the 11-point spread though in a game effort. The loss snapped a four-game win streak. We’re going Under in today’s matchup as Austin Peay just held its last opponent (SIU Edwardsville) to 58 points and Eastern Illinois tends to not do much scoring on the road. EIU is 6-1 Under this season playing with one or zero days rest and their last two games both went Under. Play UNDER Eastern Illinois/Austin Peay

AAA

This is a 10* on UNDER

IUPUI and Cleveland State are at the bottom of the Horizon League. IUPUI’s 89-85 win against Oakland on Saturday required overtime and was just their second conference win of the year. The only Horizon League game the Jaguars were favored to win, they lost, and that was against Cleveland State on December 30th. The Vikings won that game 82-80 on a buzzer beater, but look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring. The Under is 5-0-1 in Cleveland State’s past six games and they just held Milwaukee to 53 points in a win Saturday. The Under is also 6-0 this season for them when the total is 140 to 149.5. This is also an offensively challenged team that averages only 63.4 PPG. In that December 30th meeting, both sides shot north of 50 percent, something we don’t see taking place this time around. Play UNDER IUPUI-Cleveland State

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

It’s been a pretty disappointing season for Utah State. Like everyone else in the Mountain West, they are left staring up at San Diego State, the only team in the country still undefeated. The MWC had belonged to Utah State the last couple seasons, but they’ve been upset four different times in 2019-20, leaving them with a 15-6 overall record. But at home the Aggies are still pretty lethal. They average 86.4 points/game in Logan where they’ve lost only one time and that was to San Diego State. Scoring on Colorado State shouldn’t prove too difficult tonight, but defending the Rams is a whole different matter. CSU has won five straight games and averaged 86.4 points/game in doing so. They just dropped 86 on Fresno State Wednesday night. The two times these schools met last year, the final scores were 87-72 and 100-96 (both Utah State wins). This is going to be another track meet. Play OVER Colorado State-Utah State

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER 

In case you hadn’t noticed yet, Seton Hall is a really good team. The #18 ranked team in the country just went to Butler and won 78-70. We had the Over in that game, which won by more than 20 points. For the Pirates, it was the seventh consecutive win and cover. They are certainly poised to make a jump in next week’s rankings providing they can take care of business here against St. John’s. It won’t be easy. But again we like the Over. St. John’s has its own seven-game streak coming into this game, only with the Under. Obviously, we look for that to end Saturday. The Johnnie’s are coming off a loss at Providence where they did not shoot well. But at home they average 79.5 points/game, a big reason why they have a 10-2 record here in NYC. Seton Hall averages 75.2 points/game, so this one shouldn’t have much trouble going Over. During their win streak, the Pirates have failed to score at least 74 points just once. Play OVER Seton Hall-St Johns

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Marshall was going Over quite a bit at the start of the year. Through the first 11 games, the Over was 8-3. But since then, scoring has curtailed some with the Under hitting in four of the last five. Speaking of Unders, that’s the way Charlotte’s previous six games have all gone. But we look for a different type game Thursday in Conference USA. There has been some unusually poor shooting in Charlotte games recently. Both they and their opponents have shot below 39%. That’s pretty incredible and something unlikely to continue. Marshall is still scoring 77.3 points/game at home, so look for them to score more than Charlotte’s recent opponents have. The Thundering Herd are coming off a road loss to UAB where they scored 50 points and were held to 33.3%. A return to Huntington will get them going again. The Over is 15-8 for Charlotte in the 49ers previous 23 games with a total of 130 to 139.5. Play OVER Charlotte-Marshall

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Good matchup tonight in the Big East with #5 Butler playing #18 Seton Hall on FS-1. Both squads have been cashing plenty of tickets this year as Butler is 11-4 ATS while Seton Hall is 12-4 ATS. Both have won their last six games straight up with Seton Hall covering all six times and Butler being 4-2 ATS with the two non-covers coming by a combined 2.5 points. Look for this game to go Over the total. While both teams are certainly capable of playing good defense, they don’t have any problems putting the ball in the hoop either. Seton Hall averages 75.1 points/game. Butler averages 68.8 points/game. You can look for Seton Hall to be the fifth team to top 60 points on the Butler defense. Meanwhile, Butler is shooting almost 48% from the floor for the season. The Over is 6-2-1 the last nine times Seton Hall has been the underdog. Play OVER Seton Hall-Butler

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

Marshall hosts Eastern Kentucky Thursday night in a battle of teams on five-game streaks. Marshall has gone Over five straight times while Eastern Kentucky is 0-5 ATS its last five games. Let's concentrate on the former streak tonight. This is now the largest total for any Marshall game this season. Interestingly enough, only two of their 10 games played so far would have gone Over tonight's total. The Thundering Herd can probably count on their opponent not scoring much tonight. Eastern Kentucky has lost all six of its road games while averaging just over 60 points. This is the fourth straight road game for the Colonels. But at least this one isn't against Louisville, who dropped 99 points on them Saturday. Eastern Kentucky doesn't shoot the ball well at all as their FG% is below 40% for the season. It's at 31.9% on the road. Marshall is a poor three-point shooting team at 27.4%.  Add it all up and you shouldn't see that much scoring tonight. Play UNDER Eastern Kentucky-Marshall

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This is a 10* on the OVER 

The Spiders of Richmond are 8-1 and have covered three straight, all as favorites. They've also gone Under in seven consecutive tries. That has led us to the lowest O/U for any Richmond game to date, a great time for us to spring into action. The opponent is College of Charleston, a team that has also seen its fair share of Unders so far, but two of their three Overs have come when the total is 135.5 points or lower. Richmond should not have much trouble scoring in this game. They are averaging 84.8 points/game at home and 79.6 points/game for the year. So we're counting on them holding up their end of the bargain. They've scored 75 in every game vs. a non-power conference foe. Both teams have held opponents to just over 40% shooting so far this year. Don't look for that to continue. Play OVER Charleston-Richmond

AAA

This is a 10* on the UNDER

The last four St. Mary's games have all gone Over. Look for this one to buck that trend. For starters, they'll be matched up with an opponent that can play some defense. Northern Illinois opponents have shot just 38.4% for the season. The spread also suggests that we're in store for an Under. Of the last 28 times St. Mary's has been a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points, the Under has come through 20 times. That includes a 5-1 run the last six times in the situation. Northern Illinois is going to need its defense because it doesn't shoot very well on the road. They're hitting below 40% in their three previous road games.  St. Mary's has allowed more than 66 points in a game just one time and that was to nationally ranked Utah State. NIU has only had one bad defensive effort thus far. It wasn't the last game where they kept Oakland to 50 points. Both games where Northern Illinois has been an underdog, the game has gone Under. They averaged just 53 points in the two losses. Play UNDER Northern Illinois-St. Mary's 

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER

Michigan State started the year at #1 in polls. But they lost their first time out, falling to #2 Kentucky 69-62. It didn't take the Spartans long to bounce back though. Sunday saw them destroy Binghamton by a score of 100-47. Up next on the docket for Tom Izzo's team is a date with Seton Hall. The Pirates are 2-0 having also hit triple digits in a game (beat Wagner 105-71 in the opener). They followed that up by beating Stony Brook 74-57. Needless to say, this is a major step up in terms of the opposition. Seton Hall is no slouch. They are ranked #12 in the country. But they'll likely be playing without their best player Thursday. Myles Powell, who is the preseason Big East Player of the Year, sprained his ankle in the Stony Brook game. Replacing his production will be quite difficult, especially against a strong defensive team like Michigan State. Sparty didn't shoot well against Kentucky (39.4 FG%) and it will be interesting to see how they do in their first true road game. The Under is 17-7 when Izzo's team is a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. Play UNDER Michigan State-Seton Hall

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This is a 10* play UNDER Michigan State-Duke

These two national powers approach their Elite 8 matchup with serious injury concerns. For Duke, Cam Reddish was a late scratch Friday night vs. Va Tech. For a second straight game, the Blue Devils had to hold on as a last second shot by their opponent (that would have been a game-winner) rolled off the rim. Michigan State lost Nick Ward to a hand injury late in their Sweet 16 victory over LSU. But he said he will play here. While the Spartans scored 80 against LSU, they actually shot better the game before against Minnesota. We don't look for them to shoot that well or score as many in this game. Duke, like Michigan State, is a top 10 team in defensive efficiency. Both teams are holding their opponents to a field goal percentage below 40.0 for the season. The Blue Devils are not a great three-point shooting team, but have been better than usual the last two games. Don't look for that trend to continue, however. For the year, they are at just 27.1% from behind the arc away from Cameron. Take Tre Jones going 5 for 7 out of the equation and the rest of the Blue Devils shot just 1 of 13 on three-pointers against Va Tech. The team shot 55% overall, but that won't be repeated here. Good news for Duke is they hold their opponents to under 30% from three-point range. Low-scoring game between the top two seeds in the East Region. Play UNDER Michigan State-Duke

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This is an 8* play on UNDER Auburn-Kentucky

Well, there will be one SEC team in the Final Four. We just don't know if it'll be Auburn or Kentucky. This all-SEC Elite 8 matchup pits the 5th seeded Tigers against the 2nd seeded Wildcats and is the third time they'll have met this season. Kentucky won the first two, 82-80 on the road and 80-53 on the road. Obviously, the major difference between the two games was how much worse Auburn was on offense in Lexington. This game is being played at a neutral site and considering how strong the Tigers have looked offensively in this Tournament, you'd think that this rubber match is inclined to more closely resemble the first regular season meeting. But Kentucky is playing lock down defense. As a result 9 of its last 11 games have stayed Under. And Auburn's offense has suffered a major blow with third leading scorer Chuma Okeke out with a knee injury. Okeke was leading the team with 20 points against North Carolina when the injury was suffered. As for the UK offense, they don't make that many threes and have scored only 62 points each of the last two games. The Under is 13-3 in the Wildcats last 16 NCAA Tournament games plus 12-3 the last 15 times they've taken on Auburn. Play UNDER Auburn-Kentucky

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This is an 8* play on OVER Auburn-North Carolina

This game figures to see plenty of points. Both teams are averaging over 80 points per game in the tournament. Both average either more (North Carolina) or close to (Auburn) 80 PPG over the whole season. North Carolina scores the third most points in the country at 86.0 PPG. They should not have much trouble scoring here. A key advantage they have over Auburn is rebounding. The Tar Heels outrebound their opponents - on average - by about 10.5 per game. Auburn is at -3.5 rebounds per game. We expect lots of second chance points for the Tar Heels in this one. They just put up 81 against a Washington team that was top 20 in the country in defensive efficiency. We had the Under in that one and it stayed Under with North Carolina holding the Huskies to just 59 points. But Washington is fairly inept offensively, a description that clearly does not apply to Auburn. The Tigers have scored at least 78 points seven times during their 10-game win streak. The Over is 5-0 in their last five games vs. teams that have a win percentage north of .600. That includes 2-0 in the Tournament as they have given up 77 and 75 points. Play OVER Auburn-North Carolina 

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This is a 10* play UNDER LSU-Michigan State

This should be a dogfight. LSU has won a couple of close games so far, sticking true to their profile. A 79-74 win over Yale and 69-67 win over Maryland makes it 11 wins this season by five points or less for the Tigers. That doesn't even include a pair of six-point overtime victories in conference play. Michigan State was shaky in Round 1 vs. Bradley (failed to cover), but totally shut down Big 10 rival Minnesota in the round of 32. Sparty won that game 70-50, holding the Golden Gophers to a 30.5% shooting percentage. LSU didn't shoot particularly well in their win over Maryland (36.9%) but was fortunate to hold the Terps to 33.3%. Expect this to be a low-scoring affair. In their last 13 games, MSU has allowed more than 70 points just one time. They are 18-7-1 to the Under when off an ATS victory. The Under is 5-2 in LSU's last seven games overall with both Overs coming against the same team - Florida. The total for both Florida games was lower than it is here. Michigan State won't be shooting 57.1% again here like they did vs. Minnesota. Play UNDER LSU-Michigan State

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This is an 8* play OVER Utah Valley-USF

There should be plenty of points scored in this CBI matchup Monday evening. Utah Valley State just scored 91 in their last game (while giving up 84) and they've been pretty prolfic this entire season. The Wolverines average 77.6 points per game overall and have exceeded that average over the last five games. South Florida just gave up 48 points in a half to its previous opponent, Stony Brook, before coming back to win. That was the most points scored by Stony Brook in any half this season. USF wound up getting the three-point win in overtime, thanks to a strong defensive effort after halftime, but strong defensive efforts have been somewhat few and far between with this group. The Bulls two previous opponents both shot better than 54% from the field and Utah Valley is certainly capable of doing the same as they shoot 38.5% from three-point range. USF's last four games have all gone Over as have the last two for Utah Valley. The Over is 7-0 in USF's last seven home games and 6-0 the last six times Utah Valley has taken on a team with a win percentage above .600. Play OVER Utah Valley State-South Florida

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This is a 10* play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

We're guaranteed to have at least one Sweet Sixteen team seeded 12th or lower thanks to this matchup. While it can and will be said that both Oregon and UC Irvine pulled upsets, really, only the latter truly did. Oregon actually opened as a 1-pt favorite for its first round game vs. Wisconsin and for good reason. The Ducks are as hot right now as any team in the country. The 72-54 win and cover over the Badgers was their ninth in a row. As in they're 9-0 SU and ATS the last nine games. Seven of those nine victims were held to a field goal percentage of 34.0 or lower. Speaking of defense, that's how UC Irvine pulled the biggest upset in terms of seed (13 over 4), beating Kansas State. The Big West Champs are no slouch and we don't expect Oregon to shoot 54.9% from the floor in this game (like they did vs. Wisconsin). No UC Irvine opponent has shot better than 42.0 percent its last 12 games. We get that it's a low total. But the Under is 12-3 in Oregon's past 15 games. UC Irvine has gone Under in 15 of its last 22 when facing a team with a win percentage of .600 or better. Two good defensive teams go Under. Play UNDER UC Irvine-Oregon

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This is an 8* UNDER Washington-North Carolina

We expect North Carolina to roll in this second round matchup with Washington, but don't go expecting them to hit their season average in points per game. Thanks to a big second half, they did hit 88 in the first round. But that was against a bad defensive team in Iona. Washington is actually very good on the defensive end as it holds its foes to an average of 64.3 points per game. The Huskies really kept Utah State in check Friday night, limiting them to 61 points on 35.2% shooting. But the UW offense will be what ultimately costs the team this game. It's been a 63.4 PPG average the last five games, which includes a pair of sub-50 point efforts against Oregon. UNC is even stronger than Oregon on the defensive end. That the Huskies struggled so much on offense in a weak Pac 12 is a very bad sign for this game. They shot much better than usual against Utah State, which we don't see being the case here. Four of North Carolina's last five games have gone Under with none of those opponents scoring 75 points. The Under is now 4-0 in the Tar Heels' previous four Tournament games. Washington is 6-1 Under its last 7 games following an ATS victory. Play UNDER Washington-North Carolina

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This is a 10* play on UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

Kentucky turned in one of the more dominant first round performances, beating Abilene Christian 79-44. It was a first half romp as UK raced out to an 18-3 advantage, led 39-13 at the break and it was over from there. This was without P.J. Washington mind you. Not having Washington hardly mattered against a team like Abilene Christian, but could hurt the Wildcats against Wofford. The Terriers used a second half surge to win their game against Seton Hall Thursday, ending the game on a 22-6 run. Being that Kentucky does not make a lot of threes (only made 4 vs. ACU), but will do a better job defending Wofford than Seton Hall did, this game has all the makings of an Under. Kentucky will not be shooting 62% on two-point attempts again like they did Thursday. Similarly, Wofford will not find the same three point success here as they did vs. Seton Hall. The Under is 22-12 in all UK games this season, including 11-3 the last 14. A second game in three days will also lead to a slower pace. Play UNDER Wofford-Kentucky

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This is an 8* play UNDER Maryland-LSU

The size advantage that both Maryland and LSU enjoyed in their first round victories simply will not be present here. Both teams are big and talented in the frontcourt, so second chance points should be kept to a minimum. LSU is not known as a great defensive team by any means. However, they did just hold Yale to a 37.5 FG%. Maryland isn't going to shoot the lights out here either as when you take them out of College Park, they are hitting at only 42.5% and averaging 65.9 points. But what the Terrapins can do is play outstanding defense. Their opponents are shooting below 40% for the year. Neither team should score as many here as they did in Round 1. The Under is 6-2 in Maryland's previous eight neutral site games. It was an Over vs. Belmont, but that's a team that plays at an ultra-fast pace. LSU doesn't exactly play "slow," but the Under is now 9-1 in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games. Play UNDER Maryland-LSU

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This is an 8* play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo

We took the Under in Arizona State's game Wednesday, which they won handily. But this time won't be facing an offensively inept team like St. John's, whom they limited to 31.9% shooting. Instead it will be Buffalo, one of the highest scoring teams in the country. The MAC Champion Bulls average 84.9 points per game and when you couple that with the fact ASU averages 77.7, you have the recipe for a high-scoring affair. Yes, we definitely cited the Sun Devils strong field goal percentage defense as a reason to expect Wednesday's game to go Under. But Buffalo should prove too difficult to stop. They play at a very fast tempo as is evident by them topping 80 points in five striaght games. ASU isn't too far behind, scoring at least 74 in its last five games. With ASU coach Bobby Hurley having previously coached at Buffalo, there should be no surprises defensively here. Play OVER Arizona State-Buffalo

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This is a 10* play UNDER Gardner-Webb vs. Virginia

This is our top Round 1 total. Certainly, the defense of Virginia needs no introduction. The top seeded Cavaliers lead the country in scoring defense (55.1 PPG allowed), giving up 3.5 PPG fewer than the second best team (Michigan). Yes, we're sure you remember last year's epic flameout in the 1st round as the Cavs became the first 1-seed to ever lose to a 16-seed (you knew it would happen eventually). But this team should be on a mission to atone for that sin. Don't look for Gardner-Webb to be anywhere near as successful as UMBC was last year. The Bulldogs have won eight of nine and upset Radford to win the Big South Tourney. But they're severely outclassed here. Virginia did lose its last game, to Florida State in the ACC Semifinals, which becomes important when you consider UVA is 7-2 Under its last nine times following a SU loss. There's a strong chance Gardner-Webb gets held to a season low in points this afternoon. Virginia plays slow and its opponents average less than 20 made field goals per game. On the bright side for Gardner-Webb is the fact Virginia scored only 59 points its last game. Play UNDER Gardner Webb-Virginia

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This is an 8* play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee

Despite having spent significant time ranked #1 in the country, Tennessee still has a sense of skepticism around them. Now they should have no problem beating 15-seed Colgate Friday. But the second-seeded Vols definitely didn't look good in their SEC Final loss to Auburn on Sunday. They went down there by a score of 84-64. It was the 4th straight game giving up 76 points or more. All four games went Over. But even though the Volunteers are facing a team that has won 11 in a row, we'll call for them to turn in their best defensive effort in a while. Colgate's last three games were all Over, but they should expect to find UT a lot tougher to score on than the standard Patriot League fare. The Raiders played only one NCAA Tournament team all season (Syracuse) and they scored just 54 points. The Under is a powerful 20-4 the last 24 times Colgate has faced an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or greater. The Under is a on 19-9 run in Tennessee games when they are off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Colgate-Tennessee 

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This is a 10* play UNDER St. John's-Arizona State

This total just seems too high to us, even though neither team is going to "wow" you defensively. Arizona State has some issues offensively as well. Both members of its starting backcourt are shooting below 41% overall and 33% from three-point land on the season. As a team, the Sun Devils were near the bottom of the Pac 12 in overall field goal percentage. But they make up for that some by allowing opponents to only shoot 41.3%. Their last game, a 79-74 loss to Oregon, would have been a lot lower scoring were it not for overtime. St. John's only scored 54 points the last time it took the floor, shooting 32.8% in an ugly loss to Marquette. For both teams, we usually don't see a total this high. Arizona State has allowed only one of its previous seven opponents to shoot better than 45% and five were held below 42%. Those expecting a shootout tonight should be prepared to be disappointed. Play UNDER Arizona State-St. Johns

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Belmont-Temple

Belmont can score. The Bruins average 87.4 points per game on nearly 50% shooting. That scoring average is #2 in the entire country, behind only Gonzaga. The shooting percentage is tied for the 4th highest. So expect the OVC's regular season champ to score plenty in this Opening Round matchup vs. Temple. The problem is that the Bruins can't stop anybody. Opponents shot almost 35% from behind the arc in the regular season. They have gone Under in three straight games, but those games all had higher totals than this one. The number here looks a little low for playing a Temple team that has scored at least 70 points in every game since February 13th. Belmont doesn't force many turnovers. Something else to consider - Temple is an outstanding free throw shooting team as is Belmont. Play OVER Belmont-Temple

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This is a 10* play on UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama

We probably shouldn't be expecting very much from either Arkansas State or South Alabama in the Sun Belt Tournament, but one of them is going to advance to tomorrow's quarterfinals. Playing at home, South Alabama is rightfully favored to move on, but this isn't a game where you'd want to play the pointspread. The two regular season meetings were both low scoring games with the home team winning both times - by scores of 66-65 and 70-62. We don't see any reason why more points should be expected in the rubber match, let alone a double digit increase in scoring. While Arkansas State did just give up 90 points to Coastal Carolina on Saturday, that game went to overtime. South Alabama is allowing an average of just 68.7 PPG at home this season. The Under is 7-0 in the Jaguars' previous seven Tuesday games, for whatever that's worth. Play UNDER Arkansas State-South Alabama 

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This is an 8* play on OVER Illinois/Penn State

Penn State is a team that lost its first nine conference games, but that was a gross misrepresentation of where the Nittany Lions were really at. They've since won six of nine in the Big 10, also going 8-0-1 ATS. The push came earlier this week in a one-point victory over Rutgers, a game where they led by 18 at halftime. In the final home game of the year, Penn State hosts an Illinois team that's had more lows than highs in 2019. The Illini have dropped four of their last five, having just given up 92 points in a loss to Indiana on Thursday. Expect plenty of points here as well. Over the last four games, the Illini are allowing an average of 81 PPG. Opponents are shooting almost 50% against them for the year, when they're on the road, including 37.5% from three-point range. Penn State actually allows a slightly higher three-point shooting percentage here at home. That's a big reason why the Over is 4-0 the last four games at State College. The Over is also 6-2 in Penn State's last eight Big 10 games. Play OVER Illinois-Penn State

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This is an 8* play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana

You may be surprised to learn that Rutgers is a pretty good team at the defensive end of the floor, ranking 36th nationally in defensive efficiency. Indiana ranks even higher at 27th. Each team's offensive efficiency rating is much lower with Rutgers being at 150. So even though IU just dropped 92 on the road in its last game, our expectations are for a pretty low scoring game today in Bloomington. Outside of a game against Iowa (who is maybe the Big 10's worst defensive team), Rutgers has not gone over 70 points in any of its last six games. Indiana's had some real "stinkers" on offense too, particularly at home where they've scored 63 points or less three times in the last four games. These teams met back in January and the final score was 66-58 Rutgers. I don't think the rematch will be much more high scoring and that means the Under is in play here. The Hoosiers shot better than 55% in their last game, a number they won't match here. Nor will they allow 50% shooting to Rutgers, a number their last two opponents have both reached. Play UNDER Rutgers-Indiana

AAA

This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati

This figures to be a bit of a "rock fight" with the two top teams in the American facing off to determine who gets the regular season title. Houston has been in front most of the year, but did suffer a home loss to UCF last Saturday. They bounced back by beating SMU 90-79. Cincinnati was even with UH at two conference losses going into Thursday, but then they too lost to UCF, 58-55. The Bearcats have two streaks going on heading into today's regular season finale. They have lost seven straight ATS and the Under is 5-0 the L5 games. Of the two streaks, we believe the latter is more likely to continue here. Houston is a top 20 defensive team in the country, just like Cincinnati is. These teams played last month and the final score was 66-58 in favor of UH. The Cougars have gone Under in five of their last seven games, the only exceptions being a couple of 90+ point efforts against conference weaklings. They won't get anywhere close to that many points today in what figures to be another slugfest with so much on the line. Play UNDER Houston-Cincinnati

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana

I don't think that the end of Northern Colorado's 9-game Under streak made many headlines over the weekend, but it did end. The Bears lost an overtime game to Eastern Washington, 88-78. Let it be known though that the game would have gone Over even without OT - by double digits. It's not as if Northern Colorado is a poor offensive team. They average 77.2 points per game. That Under streak was more a byproduct of them playing bad Big Sky teams in games with pretty high totals. Here they face the Big Sky's best offensive - and overall - team in Montana. This is a pretty important game between the conference's 1st and 2nd place teams. Northern Colorado is two games back and was beaten badly - 88-64 - by Montana in the first meeting. That was at home too. Montana averages 80.0 PPG in Missoula and has scored at least 83 points in five out of its last six games (Over is 5-1). The Grizzlies are an excellent shooting team and the last five meetings with Northern Colorado have all gone Over. Tonight's total is actually lower than it was for the first meeting, which seems like a mistake by the oddsmakers. Play OVER Northern Colorado-Montana

AAA

This is a 10* UNDER Niagara-Rider

Back on January 13th, Rider beat Niagara 104-84. That was the game before the Broncs apparenty decided to bankrupt its fanbase. Since that win, which was not surprisingly their best offensive effort of the year, Rider is an unsightly 1-10 at the betting window (ATS) and even more problematic is that they've fallen from 5-0 SU in the conference to just 9-6. But they did win both of their games last week, even covering the spread in one of them. For this rematch with Niagara, I don't see Rider shooting anywhere close to as well as they did in the first meeting (they were 61%). Fortunately for the Broncs, they defend well at home, which will counteract any offensive decline. For the season, they are allowing just 65.2 points per game. That's almost 10 PPG less than their overall season average. So an Under seems to be in order for tonight as Niagara isn't any kind of "great shakes" offensively, plus they're already 10-2 Under in road games. The total is just too high here. Play UNDER Niagara-Rider

AAA

This is an 8* play on the UNDER in UNC-DUKE

The sport's greatest rivalry is renewed tonight at Cameron Indoor Stadium. This is a big line for a battle of top eight teams, but Duke is #1 and the line does look to be about right. The total is also very high, also not surprising considering both teams topped 90 points the last time we saw them. But in a game where they're facing an opponent of roughly the same caliber, I can't see this being that high scoring. Both teams will score plenty. But Duke is holding teams to an average of 62.7 points per game at home and has a top five national defensive efficiency rating. The Under is a surprising 17-7 in all of their games and 17-5 when they are the favorite. They are also 14-3 Under after scoring more than 80 points their last game. UNC is 7-3 Under on the road and 8-4 Under in conference play. They have also gone Under 17 of the last 23 games with a total of 160 to 169.5 points. Play UNDER UNC-DUKE

AAA

This is a 10* play OVER Portland State/Sacramento State

We head to Big Sky country for our top total this week as Sacramento State plays host to Portland State. Neither team is going anywhere this year. Both are near the bottom of the standings, but something else they have in common is a recent string of Unders. Portland State has gone Under five straight times while Sac State is 4-1 Under in its last five games. These rivals played three times last season and the Under was a perfect 3 for 3. Not this time, however. Because of all the Unders, this number comes in low, significantly lower than most of the recent O/U lines for both teams. It'll likely end up being the lowest total for any Portland State game this year and Sac State has only seen a few lower. Portland State is averaging 77 PPG and Sac State averages 78.6 at home. Neither team is great defensively either. Portland State shot just 35% in their last game, but should do much better than that here. The Vikings have let three straight opponents shoot better than 50% as well. Play OVER Portland State-Sacramento State

AAA

This is a 10* play on OVER Akron-Toledo

This is a number that I expect to be bet up throughout the course of the day. That sounds strange given how Akron games have played out of late and really all season. The Zips are 6-0 Under in the last six games and 15-4 Under overall. But because of that, tonight's total opened way too low. Akron will be facing a Toledo team that is averaging 81.2 PPG in its home arena. The Rockets have gone Under in three straight games themselves, but the previous two both took place out on the road. A return home should reignite their offense. For Toledo, this is a really low total as most of their games are 141.5 or above. This would be the lowest total for any Rockets game all season. So the oddsmakers are being far too conservative in their estimate for the amount of scoring in this game. Akron averages over 70 PPG itself. Play OVER Akron-Toledo

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER Michigan-Iowa

A rough couple games for Michigan now seem to be in the rear view mirror. On January 19th, they suffered their first and only loss of the season, 64-54 at Wisconsin. They followed that up by almost losing to Minnesota at home. But the last seven days have gone much better with the Wolverines winning by double digits against both Indiana (69-46) and Ohio State (65-49). Anytime you allow less than 50 points in back to back games, that's obviously impressive. It's certainly more impressive than what Iowa has done on the defensive end in its last two games. The Hawkeyes have given up 82 and 92 points in losses to Michigan State and Minnesota. They've now allowed 80 or more five times in Big 10 action. While Michigan is #1 in the country in defensive efficiency, Iowa is 120th. While its obvious who has the edge defensively in this Friday night matchup, don't be surprised if the game still ends up being higher scoring than expected. Iowa does average 84.2 PPG at home. For them, this is a low total, one that should easily go Over as Michigan should score plenty tonight as well. Play OVER Michigan-Iowa

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Butler-Creighton

Both Butler and Creighton are quickly falling off the pace in the Big East. Creighton was at least able to stop the bleeding some with a 91-87 win over Georgetown Monday. That snapped a four-game losing skid. Butler comes in off a loss to Villanova, which was just their second home defeat this season. The focus here is on the total. Butler has gone Over in all seven conference games so far. One of those came against Creighton. Butler won the game 84-69, thanks to getting out to a big first half lead. They shot better than 50% too. But the Bulldogs offensive numbers do drop pretty significantly on the road. So I would not expect another 80+ effort from them tonight. Similarly, Creighton is better on the defensive end here in Omaha. The Bluejays have really struggled to get stops lately, but tonight will be a different story. The number opened as the highest total for any Butler conference game so far. It's too high. Play UNDER Butler-Creighton

AAA

This is a 10* play on the UNDER ND/UCLA.

We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account numerous different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. One set of criteria which we always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics.

This particular play is based primarily on strong/relevant ATS stats and common sense:

As note that Notre Dame has seen the total go UNDER the number in 12 of its last 19 on the road and in nine of its last 13 as a road underdog or pick, while UCLA has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last nine after two straight ATS covers as a favorite.

This number is a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the UNDER.

Villanova is the highest-scoring team in the nation, averring 87 PPG. The Wolverines clearly can’t turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hand with the Wildcats. Michigan will be doing everything it can to control the pace of this one and we think that’s going to help in pushing this one UNDER once it’s all said and done. Fatigue is definitely a factor at this point of the season as well. This number is just a little high, play the UNDER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* FINAL FOUR TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER between Loyola Chicago and Michigan.

Loyola-Chicago advanced by beating Kansas State in the Elite Eight, while Michigan for the better of FSU in the last round. These two teams are competent at both ends of the floor. With a few extra days off to rest up and prepare, we’re expecting this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Ramblers average 72 PPG and they allow 62.4. The Wolverines average 74.1 PPG and they concede 63.1. Note though that Loyola Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in nine of its last 16 against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Michigan has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of 13 already this season after allowing 60 points or less in its previous outing. This number is a little low, play the OVER.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER between Mississippi State and Penn State. 

Penn State has advanced with road wins over Notre Dame and Marquette, while Mississippi State has beaten Baylor and Louisville, also both on the road. Now these teams collide at Madison Square Garden and we believe that all signs point to a run and gun shootout. And the numbers/trends support that, as note that Mississippi State has seen the total go OVER the number in 11 of 17 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 130 and 139.5, while Penn State has seen the total go OVER in 13 of its last 19 against teams with winning records. Both teams are known for their tough defensive play, but Penn State will need to push the pace of this one to keep the Bulldogs out of their comfort zone. This can still be a defensive affair and go OVER this lower number and that’s exactly what we’re expecting. 

AAA Sports