10* OVER Temple/UCF (TOW)

The UCF Knights are 4-1 and the Temple Owls are 2-3. UCF has the 43rd ranked defense, allowing 347.2 yards per game. UCF has been even better offensively though, averaging 481.8 yards per game on offense. Temple is only averaging 282.8 yards per game while on offense the Owls only average 15 PPG. UCF put up 41 points on SMU at home here last week and despite how well the Owls have played defensively to this point, I think they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. That said, look for Temple to open things up offensively here as well as it tries to keep pace. Considering all of the above situational information, I definitely feel that Friday's O/U line is low; the play is the "over!"

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10* Raiders/Chiefs OVER (ASSASSIN).

We've had a lot of low-scoring "PRIME TIME" NFL games to open up the season so far, but I'm expecting that trend to end this evening. The Raiders are 1-3 and another loss here to a division rival would essentially be the nail in the coffin for Derek Carr and company. Las Vegas comes in with momentum though as it pulled away for the 32-23 win over Denver last weekend. Overall the Raiders are averaging 24 PPG. The Chiefs are off the 41-31 win over Tampa and average 32.2 PPG. That's second in the league. Neither team has looked great defensively. Look for Carr and Patrick Mahomes to take center stage here in what I expect will be a wide-open and classic "duel" here between these two gun-slingers. All signs point to this total eclipsing the posted number as the game comes down the stretch; the play is the "over!"

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10* OVER Bengals/Ravens (AFC NORTH TOY)

Neither of these divisional foes has been in many high-scoring games this year, but I say that changes here and now on Sunday night in Baltimore. In fact, the 2-2 Bengals have seen the total go "under" in all four of their games this season, while the 2-2 Ravens have seen the total go "under" two of their four games, including in its 23-20 loss here at home to Buffalo last week. These are two teams in dire need of a win and I expect the sense of urgency that each will be playing with today, to translate into offensive production on the field finally. The Bengals come in with momentum after wins over the Jets and Dolphins. The Ravens are off the heartbreaking loss to Buffalo. This is a great quarterback matchup and I expect Joe Burrow and LaMar Jackson to domiante the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. I know that we've seen a lot of lower-scoring games in the prime-tiome football spots, but this one screams "shootout" in my opinion; the play is the over!

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10* BUCCANEERS (NFC SOUTH GOY)

I had a play on Atlanta last weekend in its upset win over the Browns. So far the Falcons are 4-0 ATS, but I'm expecting a letdown here finally. This is a big time game for Tom Brady and the Bucs. So far Tampa's season has been rocky to start. That's been in part to a few different factors, including key injuries and suspension. Yes the Bucs are coming off the 41-31 loss to the Chiefs, but previous to that the Tampa defense was allowing just nine points per game on the defensive side. Brady and company looked better at the game worn on. I expect Tampa's vaunted defense to return to form here in this important home divisional matchup. Marcus Mariota and the Falcons have exceeded early expectations, but all signs point to a return to mediocrity here. I expect Tampa to lay the hammer down from start to finish in this one and because of that, I'm laying the points; the play is the Buccaneers!

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10* UNDER Lions/Pats (NON-CONF TOY)

These teams I think surprisingly have played to quite a few higher-scoring "overs" to open the season, but I believe everything points to this non-conference matchup being a very defensive affair. Both teams are in dire need of a victory at 1-3. Detroit is averaging 35 PPG, but allowing 35.3. I don't think that the Lions are as good offensively as their early numbers are showing, and I don't think they're nearly as poor defensively either. They've been involved in some wild games to open the season, but I believe they'll have a much more difficult time moving the ball here vs. this talented Patriots defense. And conversely, the Lions' defense catches a break here facing this vanilla New England offense which will likely be without its starting QB again this week due to an ankle injury. Whoever is under cener for the Pats, I'm expecting a lot of running from Damien Harris, who has 246 rushing yards and three TD's for the Pats. Look for this important non-conference matchup to be a very tight, and ulimtately lower-scoring battle; the play is the under!

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10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOM)

Oregon State is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS, while Stanford comes in as the more desperate side at 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Oregon State is the perfect opponent to face to try and get untracked, as the Beavers come in with zero momentum on the heels of two straight losses. Most recently they fell 42-16 to Utah on Saturday. Four turnovers didn't help their cause. Stanford comes in off a 45-27 loss to Oregon. The home side will have its opportunities here facing an Oregon State team allowing 27.2 PPG so far. Stanford is averaging 29.5 PPG, while Oregon State averages 33.4. With a home game against 4-1 Washington State next weekend, I think the visiting side gets caught in a TRAP game here. No outright, but expect it to come down to the wire; the play is the Cardinal!

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10* SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC GOY)

Am I calling for an outright upset here? I'm not. I just think that this is a fantastic spot wager, as I believe Kentucky gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its home game against Mississippi State next weekend. Kentucky is coming off the tight 22-19 loss at Mississippi to fall to 4-1. Ole Miss is now 5-0. After that heart-breaking setback, and with a much more high-profile game to deal with next weekend, this = "TRAP GAME" for the home side. South Carolina is 3-2 SU, and just 2-3 ATS. It's coming off a 50-10 win over South Carolina State. It plays with revenge here after a 16-10 loss to Kentucky as a 4.5 point dog last year. South Carolina can lay it all on the line here as well with its bye week next weekend. The Gamecocks have the offense to keep pace, averaging 35.6 PPG. Kentucky averages 28.8. I say this is a few too many points to be giving up here. No outright, but much closer than expected, the play is South Carolina!

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10* HOUSTON (AAC GOY)

Houston is now 2-3 overall nad 0-1 in the AAC after a tough 27-23 loss to Tulane last Friday. The Cougars gained 383 yards of offense, but they struggled defensively in the second half. Clayton Tune though is a solid QB and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one. He's already passed for 1,201 yards, nine TD's and just three INT's. Keep your eyes on RB Brandon Campbell as well, who has 243 rushing yards and three TD's. Memphis is 4-1 and 2-0 in AAC play after beating Temple 24-3 last weekend. Memphis gained 331 yards of offense, with QB Seth Hennigan passing for 195 yards a TD. He has 1,246 passing yards, nine TD's and two INT's overall. Both teams have struggle defensively. I see this contest being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued and very hungry dog in this case; grab the points, the play is Houston!

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10* COLTS (AFC GOM)

At the start of the season, this would have seemed like an awesome Thursday night matchup. However, fans, experts, handicappers and everyone else has been scratching their heads trying to figure out these two teams. Each was rated in the Top 10 to win the Super Bowl before the season started, but now the Colts come in at 1-2-1 and the Broncos are 2-2. The Colts are off the 24-17 home loss to Tennessee, while Denver is off the 32-23 setback at Las Vegas. Russell Wilson looked a bit better last week, but nothing to make us believe that he'll be able to pull away from Matt Ryan and this desperate Colts team. This is a big week for each team, but the Broncos' defense looked terrible last weekend. I think Ryan is going to be able to take complete advantage and while I do absolutely believe an outright win is possible, in the end let's grab the points; the play is Indianapolis!

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10* SMU (ASSASSIN)

This game was moved to Wednesday due to Hurricane Ian. SMU rolled over its first two opponents, but it's since dropped B2B games to TCU and Maryland. The Mustang's offense is firing on all cylinders led by senior QB Tanner Mordecai, who has thrown for 300 yards in all but one game so far (12:5 TD:INT.) The Knights are 3-1, but their competition has been very weak. The only decent team they faced was Louisville and they lost 20-14. The Knights only managed 3.9 yards per pass against a poor Louisville secondary as well. QB John Rhys Plumlee has averaged just 3.1 yards per pass this season. SMU's offense though has been impressive, even in defeat. Neither team is known for its defense, but I give a big nod to SMU here overall. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points!

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10* OVER (NFC WEST TOY)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games this year, but I expect this important early divisional matchup to have some offensive fireworks. LA is 2-1 and it's seen the total go "under" in two of three so far, including in last week's 20-12 victory at Arizona. San Francisco is 1-2 and it's seen the total go "under" in all three of its games, including in last week's 11-10 loss to the Broncos (note though that SF has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.) The 49ers can't afford another loss here. Especially to the Rams and especially at home. Both teams have struggled to find consistency in the early going, but here's an opportunity to get back on track. Jimmy Garoppolo returned to action in last week's loss and had 211 passing yards, one TD and one INT for the 49ers. I expect him to be given the "green light" here today. Matt Stafford has so far been quiet for his standards for the Rams to open the season. Overall the Rams are averaging 234 yards per game through the air. But I'm expecting a very competitive, wide open battle, and because of that, we can look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* JETS (AFC GOY)

Neither team has looked very good. But I still think the Jets have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are 1-2. The Steelers fell 29-17 at Cleveland last weekend, as QB Mitchell Trubisky has 207 passing yards and two touchdowns. With upcoming games at Buffalo next weekend, fllowed by Tampa, Miami and Philadelphia, the Steelers will have to be super careful to not look past their lowly, but dangerous underdog opponent. The Jets lost 27-12 at home to a desperate Bengals team last week (Cincy was 0-2 at the time, and laid everything on the line to avoid the 0-3 hole.) But previous to that Joe Flacco and the Jets came from behind to beat the Browns by a score of 31-30 as 6.5-point underdogs. These teams are even more evenly matched than that this spread would suggest in my opinion. Grab the points, the play is the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!

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10* COLTS (AFC SOUTH GOM)

They say that divisional matchups are always the most important and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. The Titans are off their first win of the year, a tougher than expected 24-22 win over the Raiders, but I expect a predictable letdown here on the road. Ryan Tannehill had 264 yards, a TD and an INT in the win. The Colts have been playing slightly better, and then come in off their first win of the year in an impressive 20-17 home win over the Chiefs. QB Matt Ryan had his best performance so far for Indianapolis by going 27 of 37 for 222 yards and two TD's. But it's been the Titans' defense which has really struggled, allowing 28 points and 415.7 yards per game. Jonathan Taylor is going to open things up again for Ryan here at home and take advantage of his porous Titans' defensive front. The strength of the Colts is once again on the defensive end, as they're allowing a total of 322.7 yards and only 20.3 points per game. Finally note that Indy is 5-0 ATS in its last five after posting under 90 rushing yards in its previous game, while Tennessee is a disturbingly poor 7-21 ATS in its last 28 vs. teams with losing home records. The Titans' offense is more one-dimensional than ever and I see a complete lop-sided destruction here. Lay the points, the play is the Colts!

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10* LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE (SUN BELT GOY)

I think this is a great spot here for the Cajuns and while I do think "sprinkling" a little on the money line is a good idea, the official call wil be to grab as many points as you can. South Alabama is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. The one loss was a 32-31 setback at UCLA as a 16-point underdog. In Week 2 the Jaguars were 6-point dogs at CMU, but won outright 38-24. They've been great, but with their "bye week" coming up next weekend, I think the Jags get caught a bit complacent here. 2-2 Louisiana Lafayette does not have that same luxury. It won its first two game handily, before then falling 33-21 to Rice and 21-17 to Louisana Monroe as a 9.5-point favorite. Perhaps the Cajuns got caught looking ahead to this one. Lafayette managed the 20-18 win over USA last year, but it did not come close to covering the 12-point spread. the Cajuns have a game at Marhall afrer this, putting extra importance onto this contest. I believe USA takes the foot off the gas in the second half, and that allows the Cajuns to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, the play is Louisiana Lafayette!

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10* UTSA (CONF USA GOY)

UTSA is 2-2, while MTSU is 3-1. MTSU is off a big 45-31 road upset over then No. 25 Miami Florida and I believe a predictable letdown is in the cards here today. UTSA got hammered 41-20 to Texas, but it bounced back in fine fashion last weekend to destroy Texas Southern by a score of 52-24. The Roadrunners were a ridiculous 42-point favorite in that one. UTSA averages 37 PPG, while allowing 35. QB Frank Harris already has 1,310 passing yards, ten TD's and two INT's. MTSU averages 33.8 PPG, while allowing 25. QB Chase Cunningham has 1,000 yards passing, seven TD's and three INT's. Let's not read too much into MTSU's upset win last weekend against a bad Miami team. This UTSA defense has gone up against some tough competition and catches a break this week. Look for the Roadrunners up-tempo offense to prove to be the difference here (also note that UTSA is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 on the road) and lay the points!

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10* BENGALS (GOW)

Miami is 3-0 SU/ATS, while Cincinnati is 1-2 SU/ATS. The Bengals come in off their first win of the year, a 27-12 victory over the Jets, but they're clearly the more desperate team in this fight. A 1-3 record at this point of the season would still be difficult spot to climb out of. The Fish have been playing great, but I expect a classic letdown here on the short week. More than anything though, this is a great "situational" play, as I expect these Miami players to be caught collectively worrying about stuff back at home in Miami with Hurricane Ian bearing down on the coast. It's a perfect situation for this desperate home side. Look for Joe Burrow and the Bengals to continue to progress, as they catch Tua and the Dolphins at the best moment; lay the points, the play is the Bengals!

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10* UTAH STATE (GOW)

I think Utah State sneaks in under the radar and I expect it to post a solid cover here with the large spread that it's been afforded. The Aggies are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS after last week's 34-24 home loss as three-point dogs to UNLV. BYU is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS. It's coming off a 38-24 win over Wyoming. But with a date at Notre Dame up next, not only is this a "look ahead" spot for the home side, but also a "letdown" position as well. Look ahead + letdown = TRAP! Utah State plays with revenge after falling 34-20 as an 8.5-point dog last year as well. I believe BYU goes up big early, but then takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points, the play is Utah State!

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10* GIANTS MONEYLINE FIRST HALF.

Dallas is 1-1 SU/ATS and the Giants are 2-0 SU/ATS. Clearly, this is an important early season divisional matchup here, as the winner will be trying to catch the 3-0 Eagles. Without Dak Prescott for a second straight game though, and now on the road, I think that Cooper Rush will struggle. Ezekiel Elliot only had 53 yards rushing in the win over the toothless Bengals last week. Overall Dallas is averaging just 11.5 PPG, while allowing 18.5. Daniel Jones and the Giants are averaging 20 PPG, and allowing 18. Jones has benefited from the lay of RB Saquon Barkley, who had 72 yards rushing last week. Yes, the Dallas defense has looked good so far, but that was at home. This Giants team is confident and I expect Jones and company to have something up their sleeves in the FIRST HALF (Giants First Half).

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10* BRONCOS (NON-CONF GOY)

The 49ers looked out of sorts in Week 1 in their 19-10 setback to the Bears. That was a difficult game, as the field was under a few inches of water. San Francisco looked better at home against Seattle though, as I had the 49ers as my NFC West Game Of The Year in their 27-7 victory. Trey Lance got injured and Jimmy Garropolo threw for 154 yards and TD. The defense looked OK, but it's still really hard to get a read on the unit. The Bears game was a "weird" one because of all the rain, and Seattle is just a poor team. The Hawks did beat the Broncos in Week 1, but Denver bounced back with a less than convincing 16-9 loss at home here over Houston. The oddsmakers have been WAY off setting their lines for the Broncos so far this year. Anyone that thought Russell Wilson could throw a switch and have instant chemistry with his offense is pretty ridiculous in my estimation. That said, after three games under his belt, and his first win, Wilson will be feeling much more comfortable. And now I think the books have once again mismanaged this line for the Broncos in Week 3. San Francisco is getting much too much respect here in my estimation. Garopolo has plenty of experience, but this will be his first start of the season. And it comes on the road in a difficult venue against a team dying for a break out performance. This is the stage that Wilson has been waiting for, and I'm expecting him to deliver; the play is the Broncos!

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10* STANFORD (PAC 12 GOY)

Washington is 3-0 SU/ATS, but with a date against UCLA next weekend (also 3-0 SU/ATS currently), I think this is a "TRAP" game for the home side. Stanford is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS. It's coming off a 41-28 loss to USC. Tanner McKee had 220 yards passing and a TD. The Cardinal also rushed for 221 yards. So far Stanford is averaging 34.5 PPG, while allowing 25.5. The Huskies upset Michigan State in their last game by a score of 39-23, on the road no less. As I said, with a date against UCLA up next, not only does this set up as a "letdown" spot, but also a "lookahead" position. Add those two things together and you get "trap" game. Washington has so far averaged 45.3 PPG, while allowing 18. Clearly, no outright, but because of all these situational factors working in favor of Stanford here (including in trying to avenge last year's loss), the play in this one is indeed on Stanford!

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10* BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC GOW)

Boston College comes in under the radar here in my opinion after starting the season 1-2. Florida State is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. But this is a classic "trap" game for the home side with a date vs. 3-0 Wake Forest next week. Last week BC crushed Maine by a score of 38-17. Sure it was just an FCS team, but it was a confidence booster. QB Phil Jurkovec went 25 of 37 for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. FSU QB Jordan Travis was 17 of 17 for 157 yards, two TD's and an interception in his team's 35-31 road victory over Louisville last weekend. Both teams have been decent defensively. Listen, I'm not calling for the outright upset here, but this is just WAY too many points to be giving up. Look for BC to comfortably sneak in through the back door and grab the points!

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10* UTEP (ASSASSIN)

Boise State is 2-1 straight up, but 0-2-1 ATS. UTEP is only 1-3 SU, but 0-4 ATS. Neither team has been good for bettors this season, but here's one where I think that the home side is favored. Boise State is on a two-game win skein, but with a divisional matchup with SDSU at home, followed by Fresno State, this sets up as a classic "trap" game for the Broncos. The Boise State offense has some issues, as OL Mason Randolph and TE Riley Smith are both questionable with injuries, while wide receiver Austin Bolt (leg) is out for the year. The Miners admittedly have issues on both sides of the ball, but they forutnately catch the Broncos at an ideal time. I think the home side plays with passion here, and while I'll stop short in calling for an outright, I expect a "rocking chair" cover with all these points; the play is UTEP!

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10* BROWNS (AFC NORTH GOY)

Both teams enter 1-1. The Steelers lost 17-14 at home to the Patriots, while the Browns fell apart in the final moments and allowed Joe Flacco and the Jets to win 31-30. The Browns have been playing well offensively, but their vaunted defense has been poor so far. The Steelers have looked decent defensively, but once again the issue for Mitch Trubisky and Pittsburgh is on the offensive side of the ball. Jacoby Brissett has been decent. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had two rushing TD's last week. Pittsburgh is averaging 18.5 PPG, and allowing 18.5. Cleveland is averaging 28 PPG, and allowing 27.5. But this Cleveland defense catches a big break facing this poor Pittsburgh offense on the short week. I expect Chubb to dominate here again and for Cleveland's dynamic offense to be just too much for Pittsburgh to handle down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Browns!

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10* TITANS (MNF GOY)

Tennessee crumbled down the stretch in Week 1, allowing New York to rally from a 13-point deficit to win 21-20. It's unfortunate for the Titans, as kicker Randy Bullock missed a 47-yard field goal as time wound off the clock. Titans' QB Ryan Tannehill had two TD passes to Dontrell Hilliard. Overall he had 266 yards, while RB Derrick Henry had 82 yards on 21 carries. Buffalo won 31-10 on Opening night over the Rams, but was never really tested. I say let's not overreact to either team's overall performance in Week 1. Bills' QB Josh Allen was once again great, with 297 yards and three TD's, but I expect him to have a much more difficult time moving the ball against Tennessee. Yes the Bills are well-rested, but that doesn't matter here right at the start of the season. If anything, I view it as a detriment to their chemistry. The Titans though have won the last two in this series, with Henry rumbling for 5 TD's. Look for a heavy dose of Henry here today, as the Titans clearly got caught "looking ahead" to this much more high-profile MNF contest last weekend. Tannehill has less weapons to utilize this year, but he's still a Top 10 QB in the league. I expect this one to be much tighter than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; no outright, but a very comfortable cover here for Tennessee!

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10* 49ers (NFC WEST GOY)

I think the 49ers will risk life and limb here to secure the victory. I am not going to read too much into their 19-10 loss at Chicago last weekend. That was a weird "rain" game, where they were playing in several inches of water. Seattle on the other hand looks PRIMED for a classic "letdown" here after its upset home win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Denver may turn out to be a disaster, we just don't know at this point. It was Wilson's first ever game with his new team, and I'm sure he had jitters. The Hawks risked life and limb last weekend to pull off that upset, but I say they return to Earth here on the road against this tough 49ers defense. Look for San Francisco to send a message early and often and lay the points!

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10* UNDER FRESNO STATE/USC (NON-CONF TOY)

USC is 2-0 SU/ATS after smoking Rice 66-14 and Stanford by a score of 41-28. With a date at Oregon State next weekend, followed by the heart of the PAC 12 schedule, I am expect this high-powered Trojans offense to go up early, and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. Fresno State is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS. It fell 35-32 at home to Oregon State last weekend as a 1-point favorite. USC hasn't won at Stanford in almost a decade, so last weekend's victory was an emotional one. Can anyone say letdown spot here?! This season the average total for USC contests is 63.3 points, 7.7 less than the over/under of this particular contest. The over/under for this game is 10.2 points more than the average over/under in Fresno State games this season (60.8 points) as well. I base my selections on many different things, but taking a "situational approach" when it comes to my totals is one of many different tactics that we employ over the course of the season. This one sets up great from a situational stand point, as we believe this O/U line to be a few points too high; the play is the under!

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10* LOUISVILLE (ACC GOM)

Louisville fell to Syracuse by a score of 31-7 in Week 1, but then it bounced back with a 20-14 victory over UCF as a 5.5-point dog in Week 2. I believe that the home side can keep the momentum rolling here in this important early Conference matchup. FSU comes to town at 2-0 SU, beating Duquesne 47-7 in Week 1, then holding on for the 24-23 win over LSU as a 4-point dog last weekend. FSU has so far allowed an average of only 15 PPG, but Louisville has conceded just 22.5. The Seminoles have averaged 35.5 PPG in the early going, but those numbers are skewed. Expect Jordan Travis and Treshaun Ward to have a much more difficult time on the road in this conference matchup. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham had 353 yards passing, no TD's and two INT's. Tiyon Evans has 164 rushing hards and two TD's. I think FSU finally has a letdown here, while I expect Cunningham to finally deliver with a big performance in front of the home town crowd; grab the points, the play is Louisville!

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10* CHARGERS (GOW)

These teams split a pair of games last year. The Chiefs rallied to win the second game by a score of 34-28, a pivotal moment which could have given the Chargers the lead in the division at the time. Both teams battle for control of the division again after starting the year 1-0. Kansas City though looks ready for a bit of a letdown here in my estimation after their 44-21 thumping of Arizona on the road in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes was once again a standout with three TD's. Justin Herbert and the Chargers faced a much stiffer test in the Raiders, and they prevailed 24-19. Khalil Mack posted 3 QB sacks. Note that 2 of the Chief's 4 losses at home the last 2 years have come at the hands of the Chargers. Mahomes has a sore left wrist as well. Herbert has 7 TD passes at Arrow Head, and no INTs. Both teams have injury concerns. I think that the Chargers' defense will ultimately keep them in this contest. The outright is possible, but the official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is LA!

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10* ASSASSIN ON SEATTLE

Wilson's not the only player in this game. The Seahawks have a lot of pride and they are a well-coached organization. The Broncos were 7-10 last year, same record as Seattle. Winning on the road isn't easy and this is never an easy place to play. Seattle has a veteran QB in Smith: "The reality is it's just step one," Smith said. "I've got to make sure that I'm ready to go out there, win and play 17 games and more. ... I'm grateful. I'm thankful. I'm forever indebted to the Seattle Seahawks organization. But it's time to get to work." Coach Carroll says: "I'm really excited about this team. I love the makeup. I love the way that they've come together from way back when. I love the leadership. I love the speed. I love our style in all aspects. And now we need to go out and show it and live up to that. My expectations are very high." Since they met in SB, these teams have played two close games. This will be another. Take the points.

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10* NFC TOM ON DALLAS/TB OVER

If you like points, Sunday night should be your kind of game. Both these offenses are going to pile up the points this year. Cowboys don't get the love but they will be among the most explosive teams in the league. They are an elite offense with Prescott. Bucs have finished in top 3 in points in 3 consecutive seasons. Over is 7-1 in Bucs last eight games in September. Over is 4-1 in Cowboys last five in September. Go with the Over!

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10* NFC North GOY ON MINNESOTA

We'll take the points but won't need them. Vikings will win this one outright. Rodgers gets all the hype but Minnesota has the better offense in this matchup. Rodgers is going to miss Adams with the Packers trying to keep up with them. The underdog is 4-1 ATS the past five meetings between these NFC North rivals. The home team won both last year. Grab the points.

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10* Non-Conf GOW on Oregon.

Eastern Washington lost a lot from last year and is in the wrong part of town . Oregon has won 28 consecutive non-conference home games. After his team got destroyed last week, Oregon coach Dan Lanning said this:"Really got to put to bed the Georgia game. Obviously disappointed with the result in the first game. Lot of stuff that we can improve and work on, but really proud of the fact that our guys attacked that in practice. We talk about taking our medicine, going to the doctor, figuring out (how) we can get better. And every one of those guys walked into that room ... and they weren't finger pointers, they were thumb pointers -- what can they improve? ... We've got good players and we can play a lot better than we played." Lanning is a first year coach here and he will be feeling the pressure to deliver a big win. The Ducks scored 61 last time they played this team. Lay the points.

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10* PAC 12 TOY ON USC/STANFORD UNDER

USC flexed its offensive muscles last week. The new coach and QB (Riley and Williams) from Oklahoma lived up to the hype. They will face a different challenge this week. Stanford ran (and passed) the ball very effectively in dismantling Colgate. The balanced offense and quality ground game will help to keep the Trojans on the sidelines. No recent game between these teams has had a total remotely close to being this high. The last four meetings here at Stanford have all finished under the total and so will this one. Defense!

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10* NON-CONF GOM ON THE RAMS

Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. Not on opening night in the champion's own house. The Bills are the favorites to win the title this year but the Rams have actually done it. Did you know that reigning SB champs are 14-2 when playing in season openers since 2004? The Rams are 5-0 last five years under McVay in season openers. It might be a different story if they meet again in the Super Bowl. For now the right move is to grab the points.

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10* Total Of The Week on FSU/LSU Over

The winner of this game is likely going to score more than 30. The loser may even do so. If not, the losing team should still score more than 20. Seminoles are off a huge offensive display in their opening game. They put up 47 points and could have scored more if needed. The over is 5-0 the past 5x that the Seminoles scored 40 or more points in their previous game. The over is also 8-2 the last 10x that the Tigers played in the month of September. Go with the Over.

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10* Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on OSU

Surprised to see the Beavers favored? Don't be. Boise State has had more success than Oregon State. So, it might seem surprising. The Beavers are going to be pretty good this season though and this will not be one of the Broncos' better teams. Not right away, at least. They lost a lot from last year. They aren't a good running team and that will make it hard to keep Oregon State off the field. The Beavers were brilliant here last season. They are balanced on offense and will prove too much for Boise. Lay the small number.

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10* ESPN Top Tier on TCU/Col Under

Big number for two unproven offenses. Colorado wasn't good offensively last year. The Buffaloes were shutout once last season and scored three points on another occasion. They scored 13, 20 and 20 in their final three games. They averaged 18.8 ppg and 257.4 ypg. That ranked 121st and 129th, respectively. They couldn't pass or run the ball. Ugly. TCU was better but still not amazing. The Frogs averaged 28.7 ppg, 65th in the country. They scored 17 or less in four of the final six games and 31 or less in all of those. Again, a very big total for two offenses yet to show they'll be better this year. Too big. Seven of last eight Colorado reg. season home games have finished with less than 60. Go Under.

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10* Big Ten T.O.Y. on Penn State / Purdue Under

Four of the Lions' last five games finished with 45 or fewer points. Six of their past seven games stayed below the posted total. The PSU offense will be committed to running the ball a lot. Offensive line with a lot of new faces though so yards won't come easily. Most recent meeting (2019) had a total of 55.5 and finished with 42. Purdue managed just 104 total yards in that game, Penn State recording 10 sacks. History repeats with another defensive battle.

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10* BENGALS (GOM)

The Bengals have been consistently underestimated by their opponents and the bookmakers throughout the post-season, and I believe that's still the case here in the Super Bowl. Both the Rams and Bengals have played to some tight games throughout the postseason and that trend is going to continue here. LA had to come from behind to knock off the 49ers by a score of 20-17, while Cincinnati also rallied in its conference championship game to beat the Chiefs 27-24 in OT. These teams offensive and defensive numbers are very similar. LA averages 27.1 PPG, while the Bengals average 27.1 as well. Cincinnati allows 22.1 PPG, while LA concedes 21.9. This is going to be a great game, but another one that I expect to come right down to the wire; because of that, let's grab the points with the Bengals!

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10* 49ERS (GOW)

The 49ers continue to get little respect here. They just dismantled the Green Bay Packers on their own field by a score of 13-10. This 49ers defense, especially the secondary and pass rush, are on a whole other level right now. LA lost to San Francisco 27-24 in OT in Week 18, and frankly I see an almost identical outcome here as well. The Rams crushed the Cardinals, but they had a much more difficult time with the Bucs in Tampa last weekend. The 49ers' offensive numbers are comparable over the last month, but San Francisco's vast superiority on the defensive side of the ball makes it the correct call in the NFC Championship game in my opinion; grab the points!

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10* UNDER (ASSASSIN)

This is a very interesting matchup. The first thing that comes to mind when you think of these two teams are their dynamic men under center. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are both coming off big years, but each will need his respective "run game" to be established to find success today. The winner of this contest is going to win the game in the trenches. Ball control is going to be paramount. As will field position. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total go "under" in 7 of its last 8 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it allowed 40 or more points in. The writing is on the wall. This is going to be a nail-biter, but one that falls well "under" the number!

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10* UNDER (DIV TOY)

San Francisco has advanced to this point behind its relentless defensive attack and impressive run. The last thing that Jimmy Garoppolo can do here is to try and match pace with Aaron Rodgers. San Fran's plan while on offense, will be to hold onto that ball as long as possible, to keep Rodgers off the field of play. If Green Bay is going to finally get over the hump and return to the Super Bowl this season, clearly its defense will have to play a key part. The temperatures are expected to be near 0 and there could be winds of up to 20 mile per hour. Look for this cold weather and the rest of the factors listed above to lead to a solid "under" in this one!

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10* UNDER (WC TOTAL TOY)

If you're wagering on this game, then you know the cast of characters for each side. You know the story lines. Even the most casual NFL fan knows the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams. If you want an in-depth analysis on offensive and defensive stats for each team and individual player breakdowns, then I'd suggest just going over to ESPN. That's what they do best. Break down games and give out stats. I'm here to tell you why this game is going "under" the number, and not "over." Both Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford will need their respective run games to be established throughout this contest to have any success themselves. This game is going to be won and lost in the trenches. Field position and ball control will be paramount. Look for this clock to get eaten quickly and for this total to stay well under what I believe to be a sky-high total attached to this one!

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10* EAGLES (A$$A$$IN)

The Bucs beat the Eagles 28-22 in Philadelphia back on October 14th. You've heard that old saying right, that "revenge is a dish best served cold?!" Outright victory?! Anything is possible, but in reality I am expecting this one to be extremely competitive. With a record of 9-8, the Eagles are happy to be here. Jalen Hurts and Jordan Howard are ready to go for the visiting side, but Tampa will be without RB Leonard Fournette and WR Antonio Brown (the former out with injury, the latter released from the team.) Philly won four of its last five games and I expect it to push Tom Brady and the defending champs to the brink today. The Bucs are filled with talent and experience, but I'll argue that the Eagles are the much "hungrier" team in this fight. No outright, but all signs point to this one being decided late; so grab the points!

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10* PATRIOTS (WC GOY)

I feel as if this play is slightly contrarian. The Patriots stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, while the Bills won their final 4 games to claim the AFC East title. These teams split their season series, each winning on the others field. If you're wagering on this contest, then you know the cast of characters on both sides. You know the strengths and the weaknesses of each team. You know the story lines. So why is Mac Jones and Bill Bellichick going to bounce back here and find a way to deliver? The Patriots have the offense (27.2 points) to keep pace with the Bills (28.4.) Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game as well from the visiting side as it looks to duplicate the success it had here in the first game between the clubs this season. I give a big nod to Josh Allen at QB in this matchup, but the Patriots get the nod for their run game. Defenses are equal. This one really is going to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, so because of that gentlemen, let's grab up as many points as we can!

AAA Sports

10* GAME OF MONTH on Georgia.

They say, "revenge is a dish best served cold!" The Georgia Bulldogs do indeed play with revenge here, as they look to atone for the 41-24 loss as 6-point favs to the Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Georgia looked great in its 34-11 win over Michigan last week, as did Alabama in its 27-6 victory over Cincinnati. So what's going to be different this time around for the Bulldogs? Alabama has in fact had a few close calls and scares over its last eight games. Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded 40 or more points in. Expect a bounce-back performance from the Bulldogs defensively as well here. I believe the majority of the public will be grabbing the points today, but while they "Zig," we'll "Zag." Lay the points!

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10* LIONS (NFC NORTH GOY).

Green Bay has already wrapped up the NFC No. 1 seed, so QB Aaron Rodgers may or may not see any time under center today. Why would Green Bay risk their top asset in a meaningless game? Or any of its assets, like WR Davante Adams. Jared Goff will likely sit for the Lions as well today, as there's no point risking his contract in this contest. That means that Tim Boyle will get another shot after facing the Seahawks last weekend (he had 262 yards passing, but also three picks.) Dan Campbell's men play hard for him and this will be a rare opportunity for his team to "steal" a win against Green Bay. The Packers could care less about this contest, while it would be a big boost to this Detroit side if it could pull off a SU upset and have something to build on after such a terrible season. Outright? Possibly! But let's grab the points, as the play is indeed on Detroit!

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CHIEFS (10* GAME OF WEEK)

The Chiefs were upset 34-31 to Cincinnati last weekend, but I think they'll bounce back here in this favorable spot. Denver has been eliminated from playoff contention after last weekend's 34-13 loss to the Chargers. KC is now in second spot in the AFC behind Tennessee, so this is a big game for Patrick Mahomes and company. What can the Broncos play spoiler for here? The Chiefs are in the playoffs already. There's zero motivating factors working for Drew Lock and the Broncos today. They're also just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while KC is 14-4 in its last 18 on the road and 10-2 ATS in its last 12 in this series. Look for KC to go up huge early and then coast to a relatively simple win and cover!

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10* Steelers (BLOOD-BATH)

I don't particularly "like" either of these starting quarterbacks (or teams for that matter!) in this matchup. That said, despite his age and the "ups and downs" he's experienced this year, I trust veteran Ben Roethlisberger at home over Browns' starter Baker Mayfield. The Browns have lost two straight, most recently a tough 24-22 loss to Green Bay. The Steelers are off a 36-10 loss to Kansas City. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be loving their chances as they're 6-3-1 the last ten in this series. Each teams averages and concedes roughly the same amount of points. This is Roethlisberger's final game at Heinz Field though, as he's all but announced that he'll be retiring at the end of the year. Both teams are still in the playoff hunt, but look for "home field" to be the difference today. The play is Pittsburgh!

AAA Sports

This is a 10* on OVER

So once again, we’re going with the Over in a Bengals game. Last week was a little scary when it was announced Baltimore was being forced to turn to Josh Johnson, a little-known third stringer. But the Ravens’ QB situation ended up being a non-factor as the Bengals exploded for 31 points before halftime and Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and four touchdowns. Incredibly, the Over was a winner going into halftime with the score 31-14. Now, to expect Cincinnati to repeat last week’s offensive effort seems optimistic. But thankfully, we’ve got Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City on the other sideline. The Chiefs have scored 48, 34 and 36 points the last three weeks and are really humming along with eight straight victories. Their defense has been very impressive during the win streak, holding seven opponents to 17 points or fewer. But outside of the Cowboys and Chargers, the latter of which scored 28 against the Chiefs, none of the offenses faced were as good as Cincinnati’s. The Bengals are 0-2 SU/ATS off their first two 40+ point efforts this season, however, let it be known those two games also both went Over. There were 65 and 63 total points scored. Six of the Bengals’ last nine games have gone Over. Only one of those last nine games, a 32-13 win over Las Vegas, had fewer than 49 total points scored. The Over is 5-0 the last five times the Bengals have been off an ATS win. Play on OVER

AAA

10* AFC GAME OF YEAR Miami Dolphins.

Miami has won seven straight, most recently beatting New Orleans 20-3. The Dolphins current win streak has vaulted them into the final playoff spot in the AFC. Overall Miami averages 20.3 PPG, while allowing 21. On paper, that doesn't sound like a recipie for success, but those numbers are skewed after its terrible start to the season. In last weekend's win, QB Tua Tagovailoa completed 19 of 26 passes for 198 yards, one touchdown. Tennessee is off a 20-17 win over San Francisco. The Titans average 23.8 PPG, while allowing 21.7. QB Ryan Tannehill had 209 yards passing and one TD in last weekend's victory. The Fish don't run the ball particularly well, but Tagovailoa is going to be able to exploit this Titans' secondary. This one is going to come down to the wire. I'm going to grab the points!

AAA Sports

This is an 8* on OVER

Ohio State has had some opt outs, including receiver Chris Olave, but the nation’s #1 scoring offense (45.5 points/game) should still put plenty of points on the board in this year’s Rose Bowl. The Buckeyes were also the nation’s leading team in total offense at 551.4 yards/game. They still have QB C.J. Stroud to throw the ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the most talented receiver in the program. But there are now big questions about this Buckeyes’ defense after it got run over by Michigan in a loss that cost them a spot in the Big 10 Championship Game. It was the third time that the Buckeyes allowed 200+ yards rushing in a game this year. One of the previous two was in a home loss to Oregon, a team Utah crushed twice. The Utes are going to run the ball effectively on New Year’s Day; they are averaging 216 yards rushing per game and 5.6 yards/carry. There were only three games that Utah failed to score at least 30 points. During their current six game win streak, they have averaged nearly 40 points/game. Return man Britain Covey had two punt returns for touchdowns and should consistently give his team good starting field position. Before their last three games all stayed Under, Utah was on an 11-2 Over run. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on KENTUCKY

So this is the big one, our top play of the College season. On New Year’s Day (Jan 1) it’s #13 Iowa facing #22 Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl. It’s Big 10 vs. SEC here. Iowa is reeling off a 42-3 loss to Michigan in the Big 10 Championship Game. Really, the Hawkeyes were never as good as their lofty ranking this season. They were blown out - badly - three times. Their three losses - to Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan - were by a combined score of 93-17. They had four wins by seven points or less. Six of the last seven games saw them lose the total yardage battle. The poor performance in the Big 10 Championship Game, and late season slide, cannot be ignored. It’s certainly why Kentucky now finds itself favored after opening as the dog. The Wildcats also experienced three losses this year, all in a row. It wasn’t the most daunting SEC schedule that they played. But they beat LSU by 21. If you can believe this, Iowa was outgained for the year - per game and per play! Quarterback is a question mark for the Hawkeyes and Kentucky pretty clearly is the better offensive team in this matchup. They average 33.2 PPG, a full TD more than the Iowa offense. UK is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when it scores more than 19 points this year. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 12 non-conference games. This while Iowa is 2-5 ATS off a loss by 20 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY

AAA

This is an 8* on ARKANSAS

Since this matchup was first announced, Arkansas has become the favorite to win the Outback Bowl. Not only is this the Razorbacks’ first New Year’s Day Bowl since 2008, it is the program’s first bowl of any kind since the 2016 Belk Bowl. So they will be motivated to win under second year head coach Sam Pittman. Arkansas played well down the stretch, winning four of its last five games. The only loss was to Alabama, by just seven points. Trending in the opposite direction is Penn State, which has lost five of seven following a 5-0 start. The Nittany Lions have now had two straight disappointing seasons for James Franklin. Both teams are down a key receiver. But the big story is the Penn State defense having five starters opt out of the game, safety Jaquan Brisker being the most notable. They also have an interim defensive coordinator for this game. Looking at the QB position, Arkansas’ KJ Jefferson is a dual threat that will cause problems for an inexperienced defense. Penn State’s Sean Clifford will feel the loss of his top receiver more as the Nittany Lions’ offense has struggled to run the ball all season. Before beating Auburn earlier this year, PSU had failed to cover five straight games vs. SEC opponents. Play on ARKANSAS

AAA

This is a 10* on the OVER

We all think we know who is going to win this CFP semifinal. Since 1978, there has been exactly one previous instance of a team entering its bowl as an underdog of 13.5 or more points despite being 10-0 or better. Cincinnati is now the second. They take on #1 Alabama, who just made an emphatic statement in the SEC Championship Game by scoring 41 points on Georgia’s top-ranked defense. The Crimson Tide average 42.5 points/game for the season. We don’t see them having any difficulty scoring on Cincinnati. But the thing is, this Alabama defense is not as good as it’s been in recent years. They allowed 23.0 points/game away from home. That may not sound bad, but most Nick Saban defenses give up fewer than 20 points/game. The last three games saw Bama give up an average of 27 points. Cincinnati can put points on the board. They average 39.2 per game. They scored 35 in all but four games. Is this an obvious step up in class for them? Of course it is. But the Bearcats will score enough to help send this one Over. The Over has hit in 23 of Alabama’s last 36 neutral site games and that includes three pushes. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on ARIZONA STATE

For the most part, these “larger” favorites simply haven’t been getting the job done during the bowl season. Teams favored by at least points are 5-8 ATS in the bowls thus far with five straight up losses. Wisconsin is a team that finds itself favored by a large amount, in the Las Vegas Bowl vs. Arizona State. A late night start against a West Coast team in Vegas probably isn’t the ideal spot for the Badgers, who really underachieved this year with four losses. It had seemed they’d gotten over a hump late in the year, but then came a 23-13 loss to Minnesota in the final regular season game. The defense slipped by giving up 51 points in the last two games and may struggle again here facing an ASU offense that scored more than 30 in three of its last four games. The Sun Devils, also once considered a Top 25 team, are led by QB Jayden Daniels on offense. He had a disappointing year, but this is his chance to shine. Considering what Wisconsin likes to do offensively, the Sun Devils' defense only allowing 3.6 yards per rush attempt is huge. There have been reports that Wisconsin is dealing with a COVID outbreak and could come in undermanned. Play on ARIZONA STATE

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This is an 8* on SOUTH CAROLINA

Judging by how the odds have moved, bettors seem to think North Carolina is a “sure thing” for the Duke’s Mayo Bowl against South Carolina. But we’re not so certain that the Tar Heels, who started the season ranked in the Top 10 and ended up going 6-6, are going to be all that motivated Thursday afternoon. South Carolina will be motivated. The Gamecocks are also 6-6, but this is their first bowl game since 2018. First year coach Shane Beamer got his team to overachieve and late season wins over Florida and Auburn tell us the underdog won’t be the least bit intimidated coming into this one. Throw in the fact it’s a regional rivalry of sorts (teams last played in 2019) and the Gamecocks almost certainly will not be going quietly into the night. We don’t think they’ll be all that intimidated going against pro prospect Sam Howell, the North Carolina QB that has already declared for the NFL Draft. South Carolina ranks seventh nationally, giving up only 179 yards passing/game. They were 10th in the FBS with 15 interceptions. The North Carolina offensive line isn’t all that sound in pass protection either; it allowed Howell to be sacked 45 times in the regular season. South Carolina’s offense admittedly isn’t all that great, but UNC’s defense gave up 30 or more points eight times. Play on SOUTH CAROLINA

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Both Oklahoma and Oregon have lost their head coaches to other schools and key defensive personnel will be sitting out the Alamo Bowl. So don’t go expecting a ton of defense to be played in this game. Oklahoma will be coached by Bob Stoops on Wednesday night as former protege Lincoln Riley is off to USC while Brent Venables, the former Clemson defensive coordinator and Riley’s permanent replacement, watches on. Oregon’s interim head coach will be Bryan McClendon as they lost Mario Cristobal to Miami FL (his alma mater) and Dan Lanning (Cristobal’s successor) is still coaching the defense at Georgia. Oklahoma will be minus four starters on defense, their top tackler and three sack leaders. That seems significant. Oregon is going to be without its best defensive player, Kayvon Thibodeaux, who could be the #1 pick in the next NFL Draft. The two offenses are in much better shape heading into this game and both averaged more than 30 points/game this year. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on CLEMSON

Without RB Breece Hall, we see Iowa State’s offense having major issues moving the ball against a Clemson defense that was #2 in the country, giving up just 15.0 points/game. Hall isn’t just the Cyclones leading rusher and one of the best backs in the country, he scored 23 touchdowns, most in the country. Him skipping the bowl game is a lot more important than Clemson losing its two coordinators. Dabo Swinney will have his team ready for the Cheez-It Bowl as so far none of his players have announced they’ll be skipping the game. The Tigers’ offense was rightfully ripped in the early part of the season - when the team lost three of its first seven games. But over the final five, Clemson averaged an impressive 36.4 points and scored at least 30 in every game. Even though the Tigers had a disappointing year, by their standard, they should be ranked higher than 19th. There probably aren’t 10 better teams in the country. If there are, Iowa State isn’t one of them. Play on CLEMSON

AAA

This is an 8* on AIR FORCE

Air Force had itself a very good year. The Flyboys went 9-3 and the three losses were by a total of 17 points. Two of the losses were at the hands of Utah State and San Diego State, the teams that played for the Mountain West Conference Championship. The other was an overtime game against Army. Look for the Falcons, who led the nation in rushing offense, to run wild in the First Responder Bowl in Dallas Tuesday afternoon. The Air Force goes for 342 yards/game on the ground. To put that number in perspective, it’s 60.9 more than the next closest team. Louisville isn’t exactly great at stopping the run. Look no further than their last game, when they conceded a ghastly 362 yards rushing to Kentucky, which ended up being a 52-21 loss. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards/rush attempt, which ranks 92nd in the country. They had a very up and down year, finishing 6-6, and most of the success/failure was tied to QB Malik Cunningham, the only player in College Football to both throw and run for 15 touchdowns. What sticks out to us about Louisville is that they only beat one bowl team, Boston College, whose bowl was cancelled. The six losses were all to bowl teams and the defense gave up an average of 37.3 points in those games. This game comes down to which defense can get more stops and we think that will be Air Force. Play on AIR FORCE

AAA

This is a 10* on HOU

Being in the Birmingham Bowl gives Auburn a bit of a “home field edge” (two hours from campus). But how excited is the fanbase going to be about this game? It ended up being a disappointing 6-6 regular season for the Tigers as they lost their last four games. Sure, they turned in a game effort in the Iron Bowl vs. Alabama. But there was also a loss to South Carolina before that. The Tigers gave up 43 points at home to Mississippi State. They scored only three points at Texas A&M. Houston lost just two games this year, their first and last. The first was to Texas Tech and that was almost four months ago, so there’s no use analyzing that. The second was the AAC Championship Game to undefeated Cincinnati. In between, the Cougars won 11 straight games and looked great doing so. A big storyline to watch is the Auburn offense, which lost QB Bo Nix. Head coach Bryan Harsin fired his offensive coordinator and will call the plays in the bowl game. We just don’t think that will have much of an effect. Houston puts up 37.3 points/game. Auburn can’t possibly match that number…and they are favored. Houston should be really motivated to win this game. They played poorly in last year’s bowl game and Coach Holgorsen could use a postseason win. The Cougars’ defense is #1 in the country on third down. Play on HOUSTON

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

New Orleans was kind to us last Sunday night, so we almost feel a bit bad playing against them here. But the situation has gotten bleak for the 7-7 Saints, who placed quarterbacks Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill on the COVID-19 list Thursday. That means fourth string rookie Ian Book will be making his first NFL start Monday night. Keep in mind that the Saints’ offense only scored nine points last week. The defense, which shut out Tom Brady, is also now dealing with multiple COVID-related absences. Now Miami, another 7-7 team, was kind to us last week as well, in that they didn’t cover the spread. But the Dolphins still picked up their sixth straight win, beating the Jets 24-17. It shouldn’t be much trouble for a red-hot team to beat a COVID-depleted opponent, and the Dolphins are 5-1 ATS during their six-game win streak. Shockingly, the Saints defense gives up 402 yards/game at home, most in the NFL. Once a power-house in primetime, the Saints are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight night games, including 1-3 this year. Miami is the call here. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is an 8* on NEVADA

No bowl game has seen more line movement than this one. Based on the news of QB Carson Strong opting out (so that he can prepare for the NFL Draft), Nevada has gone from a 6.5 point favorite to a 7 point underdog. The Wolf Pack are going to be without some other players as well. Furthermore, Jay Norvell left to go be the coach at Mountain West Conference rival Colorado State. So it’s been a tough month in Reno. But this rather unprecedented line move seems like something we want to take advantage of. As we pointed out in our last bowl play, which saw Georgia State drub Ball State 51-14, the MAC is just horrible in bowl games. The conference is 1-5 this bowl season. Western Michigan didn’t even play for the MAC Championship, so the idea of them laying points sounds grim. The Broncos really don’t know what they’re preparing for, with so many unknowns ready to suit up on the other side.WMU is 0-3 in its last three bowl games and 1-8 all-time in them.  Nevada is 4-0 ATS its last four bowl games and 10-1 ATS its last 11 games as an underdog. They should show up to the Quick Lane Bowl very motivated to prove the doubters wrong. We will take the points. Play on NEVADA

AAA

This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

These teams are playing for the second time in three weeks. Dallas won in Week 14, 27-20, just barely covering as 6.5 point favorites thanks to Washington missing an extra point. A second win over the Football Team would clinch the NFC East for the Cowboys, who are already in the playoffs by virtue of a 21-6 win last week over the Giants. Entering this week, Dallas is tied with Green Bay for the best ATS record in the league. Washington, now 6-8, is fighting for its playoff life after a 27-17 loss in Philadelphia on Tuesday. The short week does the Football Team no favors, but they are at home and set to get QB Heinicke back from the COVID list. We also think this number is too big. Dallas scored just two offensive touchdowns last week. Washington is 4-1-1 its past six games as an underdog. The Cowboys have not won back to back games by double digits at any point this season. Washington has not lost a game by more than 10 points since Oct 24 at Green Bay. The Cowboys have been very lucky to force four turnovers in each of the last games. Grab the points here. Play on WASHINGTON

AAA

This is an 8* on KC

Pittsburgh has no business having a winning record as all seven wins this year have been one-score games and they’re -44 in point differential. This is a team that's being outgained by 50 yards/game. In four of their last five games, the Steelers have been down by double digits. They were able to overcome a 13-3 deficit last week to beat Tennessee, but are 0-6 ATS off their previous six ATS wins. Their only other SU win since early November (other than last week) was by one point over Baltimore, who went for two and the win instead of forcing overtime. The Steelers lost by 31 to Cincinnati, trailed the Chargers by 17 in the second half and the Vikings 29-0. Kansas City is not having any such issues at the moment. They have seven in a row and covered the spread five straight times. Before last week’s overtime win over the Chargers, the KC defense had allowed 17 points or less six weeks in a row. The Steelers’ offense isn’t good at all. For the Chiefs’ offense, Tyreke Hill has been activated from the COVID list. Take the far better team. Play on KANSAS CITY

AAA

This is a 10* on OVER

UPDATE: When we made this play, we obviously did not expect Johnson to be the QB for the Ravens. But this is an opportunity of a lifetime for the veteran. He's gotten games in this year and has a great offense around him. Call us crazy but you should still expect Baltimore to put points on the board... 

The Ravens may have failed to convert a potential game-winning two-point try last week. But they definitely didn’t have any issue putting up points. This despite backup Tyler Huntley playing quarterback. Huntley had 215 yards passing and 73 yards rushing in the 31-30 loss against the Packers. So we’re pretty confident that Baltimore is going to score plenty of points on Sunday, no matter if it’s Huntley or Lamar Jackson at QB. Jackson had never missed a game before last week. This is a huge game in the AFC North vs. Cincinnati. The Bengals beat the Ravens 41-17 earlier in the year. The teams enter this rematch tied at 8-6. Cincy won last week in Denver, 15-10. Had they lost, both they and the Ravens would be on a three-game skid. The Bengals average 26.4 points/game, so they should not have problems scoring. We know that they did have problems against the Broncos. However, last week marked only the third game in 2021 that Cincy failed to score at least 22 points. Defensively, the Bengals have allowed 41 points twice in the last four home games. Those last four home games have all seen at least 49 total points scored. Bengals’ home games average 51.9 points/game. Huntley proved himself to us last week, so we’re satisfied no matter if it’s him or Jackson starting this week. The Over is 5-1 the previous six times Baltimore has been off a straight-up loss. The Over has cashed the last four times Cincinnati has been off a win. Play on OVER

AAA

This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis is going to be playing without three of its five starting offensive linemen on Christmas. But considering that they scored 27 points last week with Carson Wentz completing only five passes for 57 yards, we believe the Colts can still score a reasonable number of points in this game. Arizona has given up 30 points in each of its last two games. The Colts come in putting an average of 28 points/game on the board. Though Wentz struggled in the last game (still beat the Patriots) and the offensive line is banged up, handing the ball to RB Jonathan Taylor seems easy enough. Taylor leads the league - by a wide margin - with over 1500 yards rushing. He had 170 last week. Stopping the Cardinals’ offense may prove to be difficult for the Colts, however. Despite playing without WR Hopkins, Kyler Murray still threw for 257 yards last week in what ended up being an embarrassing loss to Detroit. The Indianapolis’ defense is not particularly great against the run or pass, so the Cardinals offense should have success. Each of the last five times the Colts have been underdogs, the game has gone Over. Play on OVER

AAA

This is a 10* on GREEN BAY

No matter if it’s Baker Mayfield, Case Keenum or Bernie Kosar, the Browns don’t stand a chance at Lambeau Field on Christmas Day. The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread in 2021 home games. The six wins have come by an average of 13.7 points. Last week’s win in Baltimore got too close for comfort at the end, but Green Bay was up big in that one and we don’t see them making the same mistake of letting Cleveland hang around here. The Browns are getting their COVID players back this week, but that comes at a bit of a price. With so many players out last week, the game was moved to Monday. That now puts them on a very short week. In the last six games, the Browns are averaging 13.6 points, which would rank 30th in the league ahead of just the Giants and Jaguars. Also, the team’s best defensive player, Myles Garrett, may not play in this game. Green Bay has put up 31 or more points each of the last four weeks. This is no contest. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is an 8* on GEORGIA STATE

Georgia State finished its season at 7-5, but they’re a lot better than that record as they won six of the final seven games. The only loss came in a near upset over Sun Belt Champ Louisiana. The Panthers beat Coastal Carolina, who went undefeated last year, 42-40. The defense allowed just one offensive touchdown in five different games and had 84 tackles for loss, a school record. Ball State, which won the MAC in 2020, took a step back to 6-6 this season and didn’t become bowl eligible until winning its final game (over Buffalo). The Cardinals offense averages just 24 points/game and scored more than 30 just three times. In half the games, they scored 20 or less. They were bottom 10 nationally in time of possession. We don’t see where the offense comes from for Ball State in this year’s Camellia Bowl. The Cardinals were first time bowl winners a year ago, but the MAC almost always stinks in bowl games (already 1-4 this year) and we don’t like this group’s chances. Not against a Georgia State team whose only ATS loss in the last seven games was as 15.5-point favorites in a 28-20 win. Play on GEORGIA STATE

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This is a 10* on SF

We really like San Francisco in this Thursday night matchup. They are playing much better than Tennessee at the moment and the Titans’ alarming number of absences only continues to grow. It was announced Wednesday that the entire starting left side of the Titans’ offensive line - tackle Taylor Lewan and guard Rodger Saffold - will miss this game. That seems particularly ill-timed as the 49ers have Nick  Bosa, who has recorded 15 sacks this year and one in each of the last six games. Of course, the Titans were already without Derrick Henry and we’ve seen the effect on their offense as they’ve gone four straight games without scoring more than 20 points. Their only win in those four games was over the hapless Jaguars. The 49ers are 5-1 in their last six games and now control their own destiny in the NFC playoff picture. Go back to the start of the season and you may remember that many were predicting the Niners to be one of this year’s most improved teams. They just rocked Atlanta 31-13 at home last week. On the road, SF has been a covering machine for Kyle Shanahan, going 15-8 ATS including 4-1 when favored by three or less. The Niners have won 17 of their last 23 road games. They are the better team, so we will lay the points. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is a 10* on NORTH TEXAS

North Texas saved its season and maybe coach Seth Littrell’s job by winning its last five games. They are even hotter ATS, having covered six in a row. The win that got them bowl eligible was the most impressive as they defeated previously unbeaten UTSA, 45-23. You can honestly make the case that there aren’t many teams in the country hotter than the Mean Green entering bowl season. Miami may have been the best team in the MAC this year, but didn’t even get a shot at playing for the Conference Championship as they dropped their final regular season game, 49-48 to Kent State. The RedHawks are only 6-6, but they are 6-3 in their last nine games with the three defeats coming by a grand total of five points. Still though, we don’t think they should be the favorite in this one. The Miami offense likes to pass, but that plays into the strength of the North Texas defense, which allows only 230 yards/game through the air. The clear strength of the North Texas offense is the running game, which averages 246 yards/game, third most in the nation behind Army and Air Force (two teams that don’t pass). The Miami defense wasn’t very good against the run this year, so look for that to be the difference in the first ever Frisco Football Classic. Take the points with North Texas. Play on NORTH TEXAS

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This is a 10* on ARMY

It’s only apropos that Army would be involved in the Armed Forces Bowl. The Black Knights are a perfect 3-0 all-time in this particular bowl, last winning it in 2018 when they smashed Houston 70-14. This time they are looking to recover from a disappointing 17-13 loss to Navy in the regular season finale. Prior to losing to their rivals, the Cadets had won four in a row. The opponent on Wednesday is Missouri out of the SEC. The Tigers were, at one point, 0-8 ATS this season before they covered the spread as 40-point underdogs in a 43-6 loss to Georgia. Their leading rusher (Badie) has elected to skip this game to prepare for the NFL Draft. Badie didn’t just lead his team in rushing, he led the entire SEC in rushing! On top of that, the Tigers are trying a new starter at quarterback. Mizzou just isn’t a very good team and on top of everything, a defense that struggles to stop the run (229 YPG allowed) figures to have a LONG day at the office here against Army’s triple option. Play on ARMY

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This is a 10* on OVER 

Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl features two teams that are a combined 23-3 this year. Both appeared in their respective Conference Championship Games. UTSA is 12-1 and won the Conference USA Title Game, beating Western Kentucky by a score of 49-41. San Diego State is 11-2, but lost the Mountain West Title Game, 46-13 to Utah State. The Aztecs usually play better defense than they showed in that last game, but missing several players because of COVID-19 proved too difficult to overcome. Stopping the UTSA offense will also be challenging. The Roadrunners put up 37.8 points/game. While they won’t have RB McCormick and San Diego State is likely the best defense they’ve faced in 2021, look for UTSA to still put up a solid number of points in this game. To this point, we’ve seen little defense played in these early bowls (typical) and the Over is 7-1 entering Monday. The Conference USA Title Game marked the fifth time since the beginning of October that UTSA scored 44 or more points in a game. The San Diego State offense may not pack the same sort of punch, but going against a UTSA defense that will be down a couple of starters is a nice break. UTSA allows 5.6 yards per play and it’s last three opponents averaged 39 points. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on CHI

With Minnesota desperately needing a win tonight, this line has skyrocketed. The Vikings are one of five NFC teams currently with six or seven wins and the Saints shocking upset of the Buccaneers last night puts even more pressure on the road team to win here. While it is true that the Vikings are the only team in the NFL yet to suffer a defeat by more than eight points, they also have just one win by more than eight points and that was back in Week 3 against Seattle. Not sure how you can trust this team laying more than a field goal on the road after watching them blow nearly all of a 29-0 lead last week at home to Pittsburgh. Minnesota is never as good away from home where they are giving up 29.2 points/game as opposed to the 21.2 per game they allow at home. They have just two road wins all year. Plus they are just 5-16 at Soldier Field this century and 1-5 overall in the last six meetings with the Bears. QB Cousins has a terrible 1-9 record on Monday Night Football. The Bears were winning at halftime last week at Green Bay, so don’t be fooled by that final score. Three of the four previous games were decided by three points or less. We’re grabbing the points. How can you trust Minnesota to win big on the road? Play on CHICAGO

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This is an 8* on NEW ORLEANS

So much has changed since the Saints defeated the Buccaneers 36-27 as four point home dogs back in Week 8. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to injury in that win and hasn’t really gotten great quarterback play since. After beating Tampa, the Saints lost their next five games, a streak which finally ended last week by beating the Jets 30-9. The Bucs are 5-0 SU/ATS as double digit favorites this season and have a 6-0 record at home. So it’s not a surprise that they are such big favorites for Sunday Night Football. But we still like this Saints’ defense and think they can keep it close. Trevor Siemian took a lot of the snaps for NO in the first game vs. the Bucs. Now it’s going to be Taysom Hill, who adds a different dimension to the offense. Tampa’s defense showed that it was not very good last week, letting Buffalo come back from a 21-point halftime deficit to force overtime. Alvin Kamara returned to the Saints lineup last week after missing four games. The Saints have won the last six regular season meetings with the Bucs. Do they win here? Probably not. But they will stay within the number. So take the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on CINCINNATI

Last week, the SuperBook had the look-ahead line for this game at Bengals -3. But due to last week’s results, we’re now a long ways away from that look-ahead line. Denver definitely didn’t have any problem winning 38-10 last week, but that was against a 1-win Detroit team that was playing shorthanded. As for Cincinnati, they came all the way back from a 20-6 fourth quarter deficit to force overtime. But after kicking a FG to go up 23-20, the defense gave up a TD to lose 26-23. With both the Bengals and Broncos coming in at 7-6, this is a massive game for both teams’ playoff hopes. The bloom has come off the “Cincinnati rose” a bit in recent weeks as the Bengals have lost two straight at home. But they still have a +61 point differential and are 4-1 on the road. We think the Bengals are better than the Broncos. No team has scored more touchdowns outside the red zone than Cincy. Joe Burrow’s finger injury doesn’t look to be a problem as he threw for over 300 yards last week. We really can’t see the Bengals losing three straight after such a good start to the year. Home favorites of less than a field goal have performed quite poorly this NFL season. They are 6-14 straight up and ATS. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 9* on NY JETS

Miami returns from its bye on a five-game win streak (also 5-0 ATS) and at 6-7 for the year. They are just one game behind the Bills for second place in the AFC East and very much still alive in the playoff hunt. Down at the bottom of the division is the Jets, who are 3-10 and coming off a rather ugly 30-9 home loss to New Orleans. While we can understand the lack of enticement for the Jets in this spot, this is a lot of points for Miami to lay. The Dolphins still only average 19.5 points/game. They were 6.5 point favorites in their last game and did cover, but that’s the only game this season where the ‘Fins were a favorite of more than 3.5 points. During the win streak, Miami’s average of 2.9 yards per carry ranked dead last in the league and they may not have any of their top three running backs on Sunday. Are the Jets bad? In a word, yes. But only three teams in NFL history have gotten back to .500 after falling six or more games below and it’s happened only once since 1984. If this line reaches double digits, it will be only the second time since 2010 that Miami is favored by 10 or more. What we are saying here is that the line is just too high. The Jets will keep this one close. Play on NY JETS

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This is a 8* on OVER

The Cowboys and Giants renew acquaintances in Week 15. The Cowboys lead the NFC East by three games with a 9-4 record. After taking a 24-0 lead into halftime last week vs. Washington, things did get a bit too close for comfort when the Football Team stormed back to get within seven. But Dallas did win the game, 27-20. Another win here would move Dallas very close to wrapping up a division title. In recent years, the Giants have been rather accommodating. Including a 44-20 win on Oct 10, the Cowboys have taken eight of the last nine meetings from the Giants. The incarnation of the G-men that they will face on Sunday has Mike Glennon playing QB. The Giants lost 37-21 last week to the Chargers to fall to 4-9. Despite Glennon playing QB for the Giants and the Cowboys’ being banged up at running back, we like this game to go Over, just as the last meeting did. Dallas is second in the league in scoring at 29.2 points/game. We had the Over in last week’s game vs. Washington and were denied a win by a missed extra point. We look for this game to make it Over, as similar to last week, the Cowboys should race out to a big lead and then start playing lax defense. The Over is 17-8 in the previous 25 Cowboys-Giants matchups, including 4-1 the previous five. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on PITTSBURGH

Tennessee is 9-4, which believe it or not has them tied with the Patriots and Chiefs for the best record in the AFC. We understand that the Titans beat the Chiefs as well as the likes of the Colts, Bills and Rams. But does this really “feel” like the top team in the AFC? We don’t think so. Do not forget they lost to the Texans. With only a +34 point point differential on the year, Tennessee should probably feel lucky to be 9-4. Remember their point differential was only +14 before sending Urban Meyer to an early retirement last week. The Titans have four wins by three points or less. Now Pittsburgh’s also been a bit lucky in close games. But with their record at only 6-6-1, they are in much more dire need of a win Sunday. At home, we think they get the win they need. Lots of injuries on the Titans' side. There’s no Derrick Henry and no AJ Brown. That’s part of the reason the offense could only manage 3.8 yards per play against the Jaguars last week. Key for the Steelers is getting off to a good start. They’ve scored zero first half touchdowns the last three games and found themselves in a 28-0 hole vs. Minnesota last week. But that was a Thursday game, just four days removed from a physical win over the Ravens. Now they’ve had more time to prepare and are at home. As a small favorite, they’ll come up big. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* on ULL

The New Orleans Bowl pits Louisiana (12-1 SU, 6-7 ATS) against Marshall (7-5, 6-6). Louisiana is the champion of the Sun Belt, having beaten Appalachian State 24-16 in the SBC Championship Game. The Ragin Cajuns’ only loss was in the season opener vs. Texas. So they have won 12 straight games coming into the New Orleans Bowl. Marshall wasn’t nearly successful, losing five times. Four of those Thundering Herd losses were by seven points or less. But we’re still shocked that Louisiana isn’t a bigger favorite Saturday night. This is a de facto home game for them in New Orleans. Marshall lost two of its final three regular season games including the last one by 32 points. A big key here is that the Thundering Herd run defense is very bad. It gives up 245 yards/game on the road. The Louisiana offense, led by QB Levi Lewis, is capable of putting up big points in every game. Marshall QB Wells threw 12 interceptions this year. A final note: Louisiana twice beat App State, who did defeat Marshall. Play LOUISIANA

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This is a 10* on NEW ENGLAND

The Colts are actually favored here. While they are a good team and probably better than their 7-6 record, Indy isn’t as good as New England, who is the hottest team in the league. The Patriots opened this season at 2-4. Since then, they have both won and covered seven in a row. Both teams are off byes here. But we like the Patriots defense, which has allowed no more than 13 points in six of those last seven wins. That defense is why the Pats were able to get away with throwing just three passes two Mondays ago in Buffalo. It also helped that they ran for 222 yards. Now it’s not as if the Colts aren’t hot themselves. They’ve won four of five and seven of 10 (two losses in overtime). However, three of their last four wins were over the Jets, Jags and Texans aka the three worst teams in the NFL, New England is on an 8-0 run against Indianapolis. While many of the players have changed, Bill Belichick has been the Patriots’ coach for all of those wins. NE has also won all six of its road games this year. The Colts are only 3-4 here at home. The Patriots should be the favorites in this game. Because they are not, we are definitely “getting down.” Play on NEW ENGLAND

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This is an 8* on BYU

BYU (10-2) will look to cap a successful season on Saturday as they face UAB (8-4) in this year’s Independence Bowl. The Cougars’ only two losses came against Boise State and BYU, back to back, in the middle of the season. They were 5-0 SU vs. Pac 12 teams, including a win over Pac 12 Champion Utah. Having played such a tough schedule and coming in averaging 48.5 points over the last four games, BYU is our call not just to win this game but also to cover the spread. UAB was  0-2 against ranked teams in the regular season and while those two opponents (Georgia, UTSA) lost just twice all year (combined), it’s still worth mentioning because BYU is ranked 13th. The Blazers have not beaten a ranked team since 2011! Also, UAB lost to a bad Rice team and was dominated by Liberty. Other than Georgia, BYU is as good a team as UAB will have faced this year. BYU has faced several teams that are better than UAB and more often than not came out on the winning end. The much stronger resume and the fact that the top unit in this game is the BYU offense have us on the favorite. UAB has just one bowl win EVER while BYU has won three of its last four. UAB is also the most penalized team in the country. Play on BYU.

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This is an 8* on APP STATE (ML)

The first bowl game off the board on Saturday is Western Kentucky (8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS) taking on Appalachian State (10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS). Both teams lost in their respective Conference Championship Games, WKU to UTSA (C-USA) and App State to Louisiana (Sun Belt). While all of Appalachian State’s losses came away from home, we are confident that the Mountaineers will win the Boca Raton Bowl. Two of those three losses were at Louisiana, a very solid football team. The other loss was by two points to Miami, a game that was decided on a field goal in the last two minutes. The key for the Mountaineers is a defense that can slow down prolific QB Bailey Zappe and the Western Kentucky offense. ASU allows only 19.3 points/game. Nine of the 12 teams that they faced did not score more than 25 points. WKU allows 28.7 points/game. That’s key because App State is 10-0 when scoring at least 27 points. At one point this year, Western Kentucky lost four straight games. They then proceeded to beat up on some bad Conference USA teams to make it to the Championship Game. Appalachian State has never lost a bowl game in six tries and the Sun Belt has dominated C-USA in bowls, winning 10 of the last 13 head to head matchups. Take the money line, just to be safe. Play on APPALACHIAN STATE

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Northern Illinois was perhaps as lucky as lucky can be in 2021. The Huskies won seven games by eight (points) or less, four of those wins coming by a total of five points including THREE one-point victories. People who measure this sort of stuff deemed NIU the luckiest team in all of College Football this year. The Huskies’ opponent in the Cure Bowl is 10-2 Coastal Carolina, a team that had an unbeaten regular season last year. A 23-3 SU record over a two-year span deserves to be marveled at and it’s why the Chanticleers are such heavy favorites on Friday. But what we like in the Cure Bowl is the Over. Coastal is averaging over 40 points and almost 500 yards per game, so they are surely capable of doing the “heavy lifting” in this one as far as points are concerned. Especially going against a NIU defense that surrenders 448.3 yards/game. But let’s not discount what the Northern Illinois offense is capable of doing. They’ve scored 30 or more in five of their last six games, including 41 in the MAC Championship vs. Kent State. More often than not, very little defense is played in these “early” bowl games. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on KC

Kansas City has won its last six games and it’s been the defense leading the charge. The Chiefs have allowed just 10.8 points/game during the six-game win streak with no opponent scoring more than 17 on them. The last three weeks have seen KC give up exactly nine points in every game. It’s also on a 4-0 ATS run at the betting window. Tonight’s game shapes up as the biggest of the year. The Chiefs have revenge for a 30-24 loss back in Week 3. If they win tonight, then it’s a two-game lead in the AFC West. But if they lose, they’re tied with the Chargers and would lose the tiebreak. We believe in KC, not just because of the defense, but also Patrick Mahomes. Despite having what is considered a “down year,” Mahomes is still fifth in the league with 3,642 passing yards. The Chiefs put up 48 points last week on the Raiders. They were -4 in turnovers in the first meeting with the Chargers and got outscored 16-7 in the fourth quarter. That turnover margin negated a 437-352 edge in total yards and 33-21 edge in first downs. The Chiefs have won seven straight road games over the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the sport. On the COVID front, LA could be without 2-3 starting offensive linemen. Look for Kansas City to get its revenge tonight and keep rolling. Play on KANSAS CITY

This is a 10* on LA RAMS

After enduring an 0-3 November (SU and ATS), the Rams had what amounted to a “get well game” last week as they throttled the Jaguars 37-7. That leaves them two games back of the Cardinals in the NFC West and tonight is pretty much a “must win” if the Rams have any hope of winning the division. That’s because they lost the first meeting with Arizona, 37-20, back in Week 4 as a 3.5 point home favorite. Here’s why we think tonight will be different for the Rams. For starters, the Cardinals are just 3-2 since a 7-0 start. Also, while Arizona is 7-0 SU on the road, they are just 3-2 at home. Going back further, the Cards are 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 games as a home favorite. Going into Sunday, any home favorite of three points or less was just 6-13 straight up and against the spread this year in the NFL. Sean McVay was 8-0 ATS vs. the Cardinals prior to the Week 4 loss. Don’t be fooled by the fact Arizona won 33-22 last week. They were outgained 329-257 and had 12 fewer first downs than the Bears. The key to the Cardinals winning at Soldier Field was being +4 in the turnover department. Thanks to roster additions like Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr, the Rams are a stronger team now than they were back in Week 4. This game is more important to them, so we are taking the points. Play on LA RAMS

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This is an 8* on GREEN BAY

Back in Week 6, Green Bay (-5.5) defeated Chicago 24-14 at Soldier Field. It was during that game Packers QB Aaron Rodgers quipped about “owning” the Bears. Rodgers has a point. Only Brett Favre has more wins over Chicago during the Super Bowl era. Favre went 23-13 vs. the Bears in his career. Rodgers might have fewer wins than his predecessor, but has been more profitable to bet on with a 19-6 ATS (21-5 SU) head to head record against the “Monsters of the Midway.” The Bears have won just one game since that Week 6 loss. That was on Thanksgiving against the Lions where they needed a last second field goal to win 16-14. Justin Fields is expected to start Sunday night for Chicago. But honestly who cares? The Bears offense is no better with Fields than it is with Andy Dalton. Lame duck coach Matt Nagy is calling the plays either way. Green Bay is playing at home and coming off the bye. The Pack are 5-0 SU and ATS in Lambeau, scoring 27.8 points/game while allowing just 14.4. In the last two games, GB has scored 31 and 36 points. The Bears have yet to score more than 27 in any game all season and have scored 20 or less a total of eight times. Play on GREEN BAY

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This is a 10* on BUFFALO

In blustery conditions, the Bills went down 14-10 at the hands of the Patriots Monday night. It’s a loss that leaves them at 7-5 and two games off the pace in the division. Given how this season started, it’s kind of shocking to see Buffalo with five losses right now. Even more strange is that New England was able to win despite attempting only three passes! You can expect Tom Brady and the Bucs to attempt a lot more than that. But fortunately, the Bills’ pass defense ranks first in the league in yards allowed per game (165.3) and fewest touchdowns allowed (8). The Bills’ offense won’t have to contend with horrible weather conditions here in Tampa Bay, so look for Josh Allen and the passing attack to be revitalized. Even after Monday, Buffalo still averages 28.0 points/game, placing them in the top five in the league. Tampa is undefeated at home, but they’ve previously hosted the Giants, Bears, Dolphins, Falcons and Cowboys. Only the Cowboys have a winning record out of that group and the Bucs beat them by just two points. Buffalo has been an underdog only one other time this season. It was against Kansas City, a game they won 38-20. The perception right now is that the Bucs are a lot better than the Bills. But we don’t agree with that and will take the points. Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on OVER

Washington has gotten back into the NFC East race by winning four straight games. They are also 4-0 ATS during that time as they’ve been the underdog in all four wins. So this is quite the run that the Football Team is on right now. On Sunday, they can further narrow the division lead as first place Dallas comes to town. The Cowboys, coming off back to back Thursday games, are 8-4 and still have a two-game lead over Washington. Last week saw Dallas go to New Orleans and win 27-17 as a 6.5 point favorite. That came on the heels of a shocking overtime loss on Thanksgiving to the Raiders. The final score of that Thanksgiving Day loss was 36-33. We expect this one to be high scoring as well. The Cowboys offense is finally healthy. Pay close attention to the status of RB Pollard, who missed practice on Wednesday, but even if he can’t go the team still has Ezekiel Elliott to hand the ball off to. Washington’s last two games both ended up as 17-15 finals, but they moved the ball more than you might think. The Over has hit 9 of the previous 11 times these teams have met. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on ARMY

The annual Army-Navy game goes down in East Rutherford, NJ on Saturday. This rivalry was once owned by Navy, who had 12 straight wins over Army at one point. But the Black Knights have turned the tables, winning four of the last five meetings. It was a 15-0 Army shutout last year. This year, there’s really little doubt as to who the better team has been. Army enters at 8-3. They’ve won their last four games. Two of three losses were to P5 teams Wake Forest and Wisconsin. Navy has played some challenging games as well. The difference is they are 3-8. The Midshipmen did cover four of their last five games, but it’s hard to like them as a single-digit underdog. They’ve been a double digit dog seven times and favored only once. Army is better on both sides of the ball, averaging 15 points/game more on offense and allowing about 7 points/game less on defense. The teams may play similar styles of football. But Army is just better. Play on Army

This is a 10* on PIT

These are two teams desperately needing a win as each tries to remain relevant in their respective conference’s playoff race. There’s no doubt that the Steelers are in better shape right now at 6-5-1 and coming off a surprise 20-19 win over the Ravens. While Pittsburgh now has to hit the road on a short week, they are facing a 5-7 Vikings team that just lost to the Lions and has two key playmakers on offense banged up. WR Thielen will not play for Minnesota tonight. RB Dalvin Cook reportedly will, but we don’t think he’ll be all that effective after suffering a dislocated left shoulder 11 days ago. You’ve got to think this will end up being a close game. The Steelers and Vikings have combined to play 24 games this season. Of those, 19 have been one-score games. That’s one of the reasons we’re taking the points tonight. The other is that the Steelers have a much better defense. They’ve allowed 20 points or less in half of their games. Minnesota has kept only three opponents under 20 points and over the last seven games they’ve allowed 28 or more five times. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* on BUF

Two of the best teams in the NFL face off Monday night as the 7-4 Bills host the 8-4 Patriots. The Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. They’ve won and covered six straight games with five of those victories coming by at least 18 points. But tonight is easily the Patriots’ toughest matchup of the season, let alone since they got hot. Having not played since Thanksgiving, Buffalo has had extra time to prepare for this AFC East showdown. Conversely, New England is yet to have a bye (they are off next week). So that would really seem to favor the home team. We know that the Patriots are 5-0 on the road, but those wins have been against the Jets, Texans, Chargers, Panthers and Falcons. Only one of those five (Chargers) has a winning record. Three of the other four are among the worst teams in the league. With a visit to Tampa Bay scheduled for next week and a future visit to New England also on the docket, tonight is “must win” for the Bills at home. It should be a fired-up crowd and after being embarrassed (41-15 by the Colts) in their last home game, Buffalo is going to look to make a “statement” Monday night. Play on BUFFALO

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This is an 8* on OVER

Flexed into the Sunday night position, the Chiefs host the Broncos this week. Kansas City is coming off a bye. Coach Andy Reid is usually deadly in this situation, going 14-8 ATS, but that includes 1-3 the last four years. The Chiefs were playing well going into the bye, winning four straight with the defense surprisingly leading the way by allowing just 11.75 points/game. They are facing a Denver team that has seen the Under hit in 9 of 11 games this year. The O/U has come down for this game, but we’re going with the Over as KC scored 41 in its last appearance on “Sunday Night Football.” Denver put up 28 last week in a surprising win over the Chargers. That win puts the Broncos one game behind the Chiefs in the AFC West and tied with the Chargers and Raiders. It was the second time in three weeks that Denver scored 28 or more. While it looks like most are expecting a relatively low-scoring affair, we’re going the other way. Play on OVER

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This is a 9* on the UNDER

The 49ers have not only won three straight, but also four of five SU and ATS. In Week 12, they held off the Vikings for a 34-26 win and covered the four-point spot. This run has gotten the Niners back into playoff contention as they are now 6-5 on the season. The Seahawks are headed in the opposite direction. Monday’s 17-15 loss in Washington was Seattle’s third straight setback, leaving them at 3-8 overall. The Under has hit in five straight Seahawks’ games and we think it will be six straight after this NFC West clash. Since Russell Wilson returned, the Seattle offense has scored a total of 26 points in three losses. They had only 10 first downs and five straight three-and-outs on MNF.  But the defense hasn’t been all that bad, giving up an average of only 15.4 points during the five-game Under run. San Francisco has scored 30 or more in three straight games, but the Seahawks haven’t allowed that many since Week 3. The Under is 6-0 in Seattle’s last six conference games and 13-2 in Wilson’s previous 15 starts. When these teams played in Week 4, it was a 28-13 game (Seattle’s favor) until a late TD + 2 pt conversion from the Niners. This game should see SF control the clock by running the ball, leading to fewer possessions (for both teams). The Niners will be without WR Samuel. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on LA RAMS

We know the Rams have lost three in a row. But we can’t see them struggling to beat a 2-9 Jacksonville outfit that has not cleared 17 points in any of its last five games. Despite being only 1.5 point home dogs, the Jaguars lost last week 21-14 to the Falcons. That was their third straight loss since a stunning 9-6 win over the Bills in Week 9. The Rams' last three losses have all been to winning teams (Titans, 49ers, Packers), which doesn’t make it any better, especially because they closed as favorites in all three games. Going back even further, LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five games. But this has all the makings of a “get well” game for the NFC West contingent. The Jags are second to last in offense at 15.7 points/game. The Rams average 27.2 points/game and that’s when facing better competition than they’ll see on Sunday.  Against sub-.500 teams, LA is 5-0 this year with the average win coming by 16.2 points. This is their firs game at home since acquiring Von Miller and Odell Beckham. It should be an inspired effort. Jacksonville has lost 15 straight non-conference games and knows its season is basically “over” at this point. We don’t expect the underdog to put up much resistance in this one. Play on LA RAMS

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This is a 9* on MINNESOTA

Minnesota needs to string a couple wins together or they run the risk of falling out of playoff contention. Fortunately, the Vikings are facing the winless Lions this week. Coming up short in San Francisco last week leaves the Vikes at 5-6 SU overall. All six losses have been one-possession games, four by four points or less and two in overtime. As for Detroit, they just let their best chance at a win slip away on Thanksgiving, losing 16-14 to the Bears. The Lions have also dropped four games by four points or less. One was at Minnesota, 19-17 in Week 5, which came down to a last second FG. We don’t think the rematch will be quite as close as the Vikings should be “out for blood” this Sunday. Look for WR Jefferson to have a big game as not only was he named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November, but he had seven catches for 124 yards in the first meeting. This terrible Lions offense hasn’t scored more than 19 points since Week 1. Neither team will have its starting RB. But Detroit has lost eight straight times to Minnesota, a streak that goes all the way back to 2017. Dan Campbell is not the man for the job nor is Jared Goff. Lay the number is this one. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is an 8* on OVER

Two teams in the AFC playoff hunt will meet in Cincinnati this Sunday as the Bengals host the Chargers. Cincy is now 7-4 after blowing out Pittsburgh 41-10 last week. That was right here at home and came on the heels of a 32-13 road win in Vegas. So the Bengals definitely seem to be humming again after head-scratching losses to the Jets and Browns. The Bengals’ last five games have averaged a total of 55.2 points with all but one clearing 50. So that’s why we’ve got a high total here. Another reason is what the Chargers are capable of doing offensively. Two weeks ago, they put over 500 yards of offense in a 41-37 win over the Steelers. Things weren’t as good last week when the Lightning Bolts lost 28-13 at Denver. But that was only the third game all season that LA did not score 20 or more points. In fact, since Week 3, the Chargers have scored 24 or more points in all but two games. Look for Justin Herbert to have a bounce back game on Sunday and the Bengals will put up their usual number of points as well. The Chargers’ defense, which is second worst in the league at stopping the run, has given up an average of 31.3 points the seven games (2nd most in the league during that span) with all seven opponents scoring at least 24. Cincinnati is averaging the second most points in the league (31.3/game) since Week 6. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on IOWA

Michigan is 10-2 ATS, best in the country, but coming off the biggest win the program has had in many years, we do not see them defeating Iowa by double digits. This is a tricky spot for the Wolverines. They are off the 42-27 win over Ohio State and now expected to make the College Football Playoff. Iowa, 10-2 and once ranked as high as #2 in the country, is basically playing with house money at this point. The Hawkeyes were blown out by both Purdue and Wisconsin in the middle of the season. But coming into 2021 their previous eight losses had all been by seven points or fewer. They’ve got a very good defense in Iowa City, one that should travel well to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Title tilt. Iowa is only giving up 17.3 points per contest, placing them in the top ten nationally. They are also top ten in number of yards per play allowed. Looking at the total, the expectation is that this is going to be a low-scoring game. So why not take the double digit underdog that can afford to play “loose?” Michigan is not going to be able to run the ball as effectively here as they did last week. Favorites are just 2-8 ATS in the history of the Big 10 Championship Game and 0-5 ATS excluding Ohio State. Play on IOWA

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This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO ST

Utah State has been a big surprise this year, reaching the Mountain West Conference Championship Game after going 1-5 in 2020. So they’re a nice story. But we’re going to point to an ugly 44-17 loss to Wyoming two weeks ago as to why this story is unlikely to have a “happy ending.” Utah State’s 15th ranked passing offense really struggled against Wyoming, who came in with the fourth best pass defense in the country. Aggies QB Bonner completed only 19 of 40 passes for 181 yards. We bring this up because San Diego State, the team Utah State faces on Saturday, has the #9 ranked pass defense in the country. The Aztecs are also top nine in the country in both scoring defense and yards per play. They’ve allowed more than 21 points just two times all year. Last week against Boise State, SDSU found themselves down 16-3 early in the second quarter. They shut the Broncos out the rest of the way and took the game 27-16. The Aztecs’ offense should find plenty of success running the ball here vs. a Utah State defense that gives up 164 rush yards per game. Against Wyoming, the Aggies allowed 362 yards rushing! Utah State’s three losses this year were by an average of 22 points. San Diego State not only has perhaps the best defense in the Group of Five, but also the best punter. They are much better in two of the three phases of the game and should roll to an easy ATS win on Saturday. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE

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This is an 8* on OK STATE

#5 Oklahoma State has a legit chance to make the College Football Playoff with a win here. That motivation alone should be enough to carry them to victory in this year’s Big 12 Championship Game. All the Cowboys seemingly need to have happen (besides winning this game) is have Michigan, Alabama or Cincinnati lose this weekend. Doesn’t seem too far-fetched, especially considering ‘Bama is an underdog. Baylor is ranked #7 but their path to the CFP seems a lot more murky considering the fact that no team outside the top six in the rankings on Championship Saturday has ever reached the CFP.  While the Bears have won outright three of the four times they’ve been an underdog, the one time they didn’t was against Oklahoma State. Baylor was +3 in turnovers in that game and not only lost 24-14, but failed to cover the four-point spot. Outside of two big plays, the Bears’ offense really struggled in that game. They punted on their first eight possessions! QB Gerry Bohanon is listed as questionable to play on Saturday because of a hamstring injury. Our view is that with or without Bohanon, the Bears offense will once again struggle to move the ball against a tough OSU defense. If they couldn’t beat the Cowboys while being +3 in turnovers, it’s unlikely that they will beat them here when that differential is unlikely to repeat itself. OSU is 9-2-1 ATS this year, second in the country behind only Michigan. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE

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