This is an 8* on UTAH

It was all Utes in the regular season matchup, a 38-7 win by the home team in Salt Lake City. That cost Oregon any chance of playing in the College Football Playoff, so there’s no denying the revenge factor here for the Ducks. But revenge can only carry a team so far. Has that much really changed in the two weeks since these Pac 12 rivals last played? We think not. Utah’s offense converted 8 of 10 on third down in the first half against the Oregon defense and also averaged 6.1 yards per play. But the Utes’ defense was even more dominant in pitching a first half shutout and allowing virtually zero big plays. Will Utah be as dominant on a neutral field? Probably not. But this is a team playing very solid football right now. Don’t be fooled by the final score of last week’s win over Colorado. The Utes had almost 300 more yards and a 23-9 first down edge in the 28-13 game, their fifth straight win. Three of the last four opponents have gotten held to 13 points or less. Last week marked the first time in eight games where the Utes offense failed to score 34 points. They are just bad matchup for Oregon. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on OVER

The first Conference Championship Game of Week 14 goes down in Conference USA where UTSA will host Western Kentucky. UTSA just had its unbeaten season ruined last week by North Texas in a 45-23 loss. But the Roadrunners’ spot in this game was already secure and a Conference USA title would be a big deal for this relatively “unknown” program. They’ll face a Western Kentucky that is on runs of 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread. The Hilltoppers have covered the spread in their last five games. But they did lose 52-46 as three-point home favorites to UTSA back on October 9th. We are anticipating another shootout this Friday night. The fact that the teams already combined for 98 points and 1234 yards of total offense is a nice start. Consider that in the first meeting these teams combined for eight TD drives of 75 or more yards and none went longer than 5:08. WKU averages 43.3 points/game. They’ve scored 52 and 53 points the last two weeks. UTSA averages 36.9 points/game. Them giving up 45 last week doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence in the defense. The Over is 11-4 in the Hilltoppers’ previous 15 games. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on the OVER

Dallas was tremendous over the first two months of the season, going 6-1 straight up and 7-0 against the spread. But they definitely gave some back in November, going 1-3 SU and ATS. The Cowboys were losers on Thanksgiving Day, falling 36-33 in overtime to the Raiders. Now they’’ turn around and face another Thanksgiving Day loser, the Saints, in another Thursday game. New Orleans got blasted by Buffalo 31-6 as a seven-point home underdog last week. It was their fourth consecutive loss. Before this current losing streak, you would have had to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time any Saints team lost three in a row. With both teams struggling, we’re not interested in playing either side here. Instead, the Over looks to be where the value is at. The Dallas defense gave up over 500 yards last week, including 366 through the air. Per sources, New Orleans is making a change at QB to Taysom Hill. We like the move. But what Hill can’t fix is a Saints defense that’s allowed 71 points the last two games and an average of 29.6 its last five. The Cowboys offense is likely to see WR CeeDee Lamb return. The impact of not having coach Mike McCarthy on the sidelines should be minimal for the road team. McCarthy is generally regarded as a bottom tier coach. The Over has hit in the Cowboys' last four Thursday games. Play on OVER

This is a 10* on SEATTLE

It’s not the most attractive matchup on Monday night, but we like the Seahawks to cover against the Washington Football Team. While Seattle is a very disappointing 3-7, this is a game they can certainly win. Last week, the ‘Hawks were favored to beat 9-2 Arizona. We know that game was at home and the Cardinals didn’t have Kyler Murray. But it’s certainly a bit jarring to see them go from being favored to beat the team with the best record in the league to underdogs against a 4-6 Football Team. Now Washington has won two straight. One of those was against Tampa Bay. Then they went on the road to upset Carolina last week. But the Football Team is still a subpar outfit. Seattle might have some injuries, but they have Russell Wilson. They also have the highest win percentage in the history of Monday Night Football, including 11 wins in the past 14 appearances. We see this as a classic buy low spot on the Seahawks, who are the better team. We’re getting a good number as the lookahead line had them favored by 3.5 points. Play on SEATTLE

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This is a 9* on OVER

The Chargers scored 41 points and gained over 500 yards last week. It came down to the final minute, as all Chargers’ games seem to do, but they were a 41-37 winner over Pittsburgh. This just in: QB Justin Herbert is very good. Denver’s defense isn’t as good as you think, which was evident two weeks ago when they gave up 30 points to the Eagles. Meanwhile, look for the Broncos’ offense to move the ball via the running game. The Chargers are last in the league at stopping the run. Denver has two good backs - Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams - who have combined for 4.7 yards per rush and 1,333 scrimmage yards. Each of the Chargers’ last six opponents have scored at least 24 points. Look for this to turn into a pretty high-scoring affair. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on TB

Tampa Bay continued its strong play at home with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Super Bowl Champs are now 5-0 SU at home this year. But on the road, they are only 2-3 SU and 0-5 ATS. An 0-3 ATS record this season against teams that have winning records is even less inspiring. But we will still lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Indianapolis, coming off a 41-15 win over Buffalo, seems a little overvalued. The Colts were +4 in turnover margin against the Bills, which was the difference. They’ve played three straight games of turnover-free football. A fourth straight seems a bit much as would be asking them to cover for a fifth straight time as a dog. We think the big key in this game is the Bucs having the league’s top ranked run defense. So they should be able to slow down Colts RB Jonathan Taylor a bit. You’ve got to figure that first ATS road win is coming. Only having to lay a field goal seems like a solid value. The Colts gained fewer yards per play last week than the Bills, which will be surprising to some given the final score. Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is an 8* on JAX

Jacksonville should be favored in this game. We know they are one of the worst teams in the NFL. But so are the Falcons, who have put up only three points total in the last two games. After being humiliated 43-3 in Dallas, Atlanta was shutout at home by New England, 25-0, last Thursday. The offensive struggles are easy to understand. WR Calvin Ridley remains out and RB Cordarrelle Patterson has been bothered by an ankle injury. Here’s something that is truly unbelievable - the Falcons haven’t had a single run play go for more than 18 yards all season. Now Jacksonville has gone four straight games without topping 17 points. But they did beat the Bills and cover against the Colts. Last week’s 30-10 loss to the 49ers was a step back and their 14th straight loss to NFC opponents. But if they’re ever going to stop that streak, it would be here. In a battle of two of the league’s worst teams, we will side with the home team getting points. Atlanta is 9-17 ATS its last 26 games as a favorite, 3-6 ATS since the start of last season. Play on JACKSONVILLE

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This is an 8* on CAR

Under Matt Rhule, Carolina has simply been a better team on the road. They are 10-3 ATS in his two-year tenure, which includes 3-2 SU/ATS this year. The last time the Panthers went on the road, they beat Arizona 34-10. Unfortunately though, they lost 27-21 to Washington at home last week. But Cam Newton looked good with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. It was a tie game in the fourth quarter. Miami has won and covered three in a row, but two of the wins were against the Texans and Jets. They are 0-3 ATS this year when the spread is three points or less. Carolina’s defense ranks second in the league in total yards allowed and is first against the pass. They do a good job at pressuring the QB (1st in pressure rate L4 weeks) and pass protection has been a problem for this Dolphins’ offensive line all year as they’ve given up the sixth most sacks. On a three-game win streak with the Jets and Giants coming up next, Miami might be feeling good about themselves. But we don’t see them winning a fourth straight game. They’re one of the worst teams in the league. Lay the points. Play on CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA

By the time this game kicks off, we’ll have a pretty clear idea of what the Big 12 Championship Game could look like. We know Oklahoma State will be involved in that game next week. They’ll play either Baylor or Oklahoma, depending on how things unfold Sunday. Any combination other than an Oklahoma loss AND Baylor win would mean these two Bedlam rivals face each other again next week. Oklahoma State comes in as the favorite Saturday. But OU has won the last six Bedlam games, plus 16 out of the last 18. The big story from a betting perspective is that Oklahoma State has covered the spread in nine consecutive games after opening 0-2 ATS. The Cowboys had a number of close wins early in the season, but have been dominant the last month or so. But it would be foolish to write off the Sooners in this game considering that they need to win in order to play for a seventh straight Big 12 Championship. They average 38.9 points/game and almost always find a way to put a healthy number on the board, save for the one loss at Baylor. The Sooners are 7-3 ATS L10 as an underdog. Play on OKLAHOMA

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This is a 10* on LSU

Emotions should be running high Saturday night in Death Valley. Not only is this the final home game for 19 LSU seniors, but it will be the final home game for head coach Ed Orgeron, who is leaving the program just two years after leading it to a National Championship. A win here and the Tigers would become bowl eligible, guaranteeing Orgeron one last game. Several of his players have been vocal about winning the game for their coach. "I'm so excited about this game," Orgeron said. "We're going to be pumped up and we're going to be ready to go." Avoiding what would be the first losing season in Baton Rouge in over 20 years is yet another motivating factor. We believe the team does want to go to a bowl for “Coach O.” Texas A&M has nothing to play for on Saturday night. Bowl position perhaps, but win or lose here the change in bowl game isn’t going to be all that significant. The Aggies are the only team to defeat Alabama this year, but they’ve also lost to three other SEC West teams: Ole Miss, Miss State and Arkansas. Two of the three losses came on the road. No A&M team has won at LSU since 1994 and the Aggies are just 2-7 straight up vs. the Tigers since joining the SEC. Given the circumstances, we think this line is too high. Play on LSU

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This is a 9* on OVER

Hawaii goes for its sixth win Saturday when it pays a visit to the mainland to take on 6-5 Wyoming. These are two teams that put over more than 40 points last week. Hawaii won a wild, 50-45 shootout over Colorado State out in Honolulu. Wyoming went to Utah State and won 44-17. The home team should not have much trouble scoring points in this game. Hawaii is giving up 37 points/game on the road. Wyoming ran for 362 yards last week. Whether it’s on the ground or through the air, moving the ball won’t be an issue. Hawaii’s defense gave up 651 yards to Colorado State.The Over has hit in three of Wyoming’s previous four games. This is a low total for Hawaii, who has had several games with an O/U line of more than 60 points.Their games have averaged 60.8 points this season. The offense had 535 yards last week. The number is just too low here. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on MARYLAND

You’ve got two 5-6 teams facing off in a regular season finale. That means the winner gets to be bowl eligible while the loser is done for the year. Maryland has not covered a single Big 10 game this season. So the fact they have a chance to be bowl eligible seems pretty fortunate. Their two conference wins were by three over Indiana and by three over Illinois. The past six losses have all been by 17 or more points. But we’re taking them against a Rutgers team whose only two Big 10 victories happen to be at the expense of Indiana and Illinois. The Scarlet Knights, who haven’t won a conference game at home since 2017, were shutout 28-0 last week by Penn State. That was the third time in five games that they didn’t score more than seven points. Other than a 38-3 win at Indiana, Rutgers has not scored more than 20 points in any Big 10 game this year. They just don’t have enough offense to be taken seriously. Six of the last eight games have seen the Scarlet Knights score 13 or less. Maryland QB Tagovailoa had three straight 350+ yard games before running into Michigan last Saturday. All the Terps offense needs here is 21 points and that seems pretty attainable. Play on MARYLAND

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This is a 10* on UAB

UAB is off a heartbreaking last-second loss to undefeated UTSA. That guarantees the Blazers won’t be returning to the C-USA Title Game. But look for them to take their frustrations out on UTEP Friday afternoon in the home finale in Birmingham. UAB is 7-4 SU and 8-3 ATS this season. In conference play, they are winning by an average of two touchdowns per game. That’s a lot better than UTEP, who is 7-4 SU and ATS, but only winning by an average of three points per game in conference play. The Miners weren’t expected to have a winning record in 2021. But they’ve won all five games where they were favored and pulled a couple upsets. However, UTEP has been blown out twice as a double digit underdog, once by UTSA and once by Boise State. UAB is 27-11-2 ATS its last 40 conference games and still covered in last week’s heartbreaking defeat. The Blazers have beaten UTEP five straight times, the last four wins all coming by at least 15 points. Play on UAB

This is an 8* on TEXAS

It’s been an incredibly disappointing season in Austin as Texas comes into the season finale with a 4-7 SU record. They have lost six straight games, also going 0-6 against the spread during that time. All signs point to the blown lead against Oklahoma, a game the Longhorns led 28-7 after the first quarter, as the tipping point for when things went south. But this has clearly been a case of a team being unlucky rather than bad. Five of the Longhorns’ six straight defeats have been one-score games. Yes, they lost to Kansas. But we are expecting them to “show up” here on Senior Day and beat a Kansas State team that’s got nothing to play for. The Wildcats lost 20-10 at home to Baylor last weekend. They’ve also lost four straight against Texas with last year’s game being decided by 38 points in Manhattan. Texas is a lot better than its record. We expect them to show that Friday afternoon. Lay the short number. Play on TEXAS

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This is an 8* on BUFFALO

At one time, Buffalo looked to be the best team in the NFL. Three losses in the last five games have really tempered enthusiasm though. Yet we still believe in the team from upstate NY. The Bills have the league’s second best point differential at +119. Their top ranked defense was shredded on Sunday by Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, who scored five touchdowns. But that was a very misleading 41-15 final score. What if we told you that the Bills gained more yards per play than the Colts in that game? They did. The problem was they were -4 in the turnover battle. We think they bounce back Thanksgiving Night against the reeling Saints. New Orleans has lost three in a row. They were thoroughly dominated by the Eagles on Sunday in a 40-29 loss. Trevor Siemian, filling in for an injured Jameis Winston, is not getting it done at quarterback. The injuries are starting to pile up in the Big Easy as TE Trautman is out 4-6 weeks and OT Young will have season-ending foot surgery. The Saints are pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. Buffalo, who is 3-0 ATS off a straight up loss this year, is the only team in the league to be top three in both scoring offense and defense. Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on OLE MISS

The Egg Bowl - the rivalry game between Ole Miss and Miss State - is a Thanksgiving Night tradition. This year, both schools come in ranked: Ole Miss is #12 and Miss State is #25. The visiting Rebels are 9-2, their only losses coming at Alabama and at Auburn. They have QB Matt Corral, one of the nation’s top signal callers. He has thrown for 3100 yards in 11 games and accounted for 29 touchdowns with just three interceptions. While it was closer than expected last week against Vanderbilt, the Rebels still won by 14 and the game was never in doubt. They face a hot Miss State team this week, one that has won four of its last five games while going 5-0 ATS. MSU has its own hot QB, Will Rogers, who has thrown for over 4100 yards this season with 34 TD passes. While the Bulldogs essentially had a “tune up” last week vs. Tennessee State, let’s look at what’s happened in their last two SEC games. They lost at Arkansas and were also down 28-3 at Auburn before storming back to score 40 unanswered points. Ole Miss won last year’s Egg Bowl, but only by seven as a 9.5-point favorite. The year before they were robbed on a horrific taunting penalty. Our view is that the Rebels will be looking to hammer their rival here and put an end to an 0-3 ATS skid in Egg Bowls. Ole Miss has been the better team all year and this game being in Starkville isn’t enough to sway us off the visitors. Play on OLE MISS

This is a 10* on OVER

Both the Raiders and Cowboys are reeling coming into Thanksgiving Day. The Raiders lost their third straight game on Sunday and are now just 5-5 SU. They’ve scored just 43 points during this losing skid. The last two losses have been blowouts: 41-14 to the Chiefs and 32-13 in Cincinnati. Both of those were home games. The Raiders now leave Sin City to take on a Dallas team that put up a season-low nine points against the Chiefs on Sunday. However, the Cowboys are in a lot better shape than the Raiders are. Dallas still leads the NFC East with a 7-3 record. Considering they average the third most points/game in the NFL (29.3), we’re willing to “write off” what happened in the last game. The last time the Cowboys played at home, they put up 43 points. That was the third time this year they scored 40 or more at home. The Raiders’ defense isn’t good, so we’re expecting another strong effort from Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense. But look for Derek Carr and Las Vegas to put up some points as well. They substantially outgained the Bengals offense on a per play basis. Not only is the Over 11-4-1 in the Raiders’ last 16 games as an underdog, but it is 7-2 the last nine times following a straight-up loss. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on UNDER

So we do not yet know who will be playing QB for the Lions on Thanksgiving Day. Does that matter though? The team has yet to win a game and will be going with either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. Boyle made his first NFL start last week in a 13-10 loss to the Browns. He threw for 77 yards and had two interceptions. Goff’s last eight starts haven’t been much better. One would have to go back to Week 1 to find the last time that the Lions scored more than 19 points. They are 30th in the league in scoring.  Right ahead of them, in 29th, is this year’s Thanksgiving Day opponent. Chicago averages just 16.3 points/game. They will reportedly be starting Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton replaced an injured Justin Fields on Sunday and the Bears wound up with only 13 points and lost to the Ravens. It was the seventh game this year that the Bears scored 20 points or less. There are rumors that head coach Matt Nagy might be fired after this game. That’s inspiring! So let’s summarize. Chicago is starting Andy Dalton with a potentially lame-duck head coach. They are facing a winless team starting either Jared Goff or Tim Boyle. We will take the Under.  Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on NIU

The MAC West has been turned upside down this year as Northern Illinois has gone from an 0-6 record in 2020 to division champs in 2021! The Huskies are 8-3 SU this season and while a majority of those wins have been close games, they already have their spot booked in next week’s MAC Championship Game. Close wins don’t matter when you’re always an underdog and Tuesday’s game vs. last place Western Michigan marks the 9th time in 12 games that the Huskies are getting points this season. They were favored last week (by two) when they beat Buffalo in overtime. It is insane to us that Western Michigan would be favored on the road here as - again - they are the last place team in the MAC West. Yes, coming into the year, the Broncos were the favorites to win this division. But they have sputtered down the stretch, losing three of their last four games. The only win came against Akron by a score of 45-40. Northern Illinois continues to be disrespected by the linesmakers, even though the offense has averaged 547 yards over the last three games. We will grab the points in this one as NIU is the better team, playing at home. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS

This is a 10* on OVER

The Bucs are thankful to be back home Monday night after losing two in a row on the road. The two losses saw them give up 36 points to the Saints and 29 points to the Washington Football Team. But defense shouldn’t be much of a concern tonight as Brady and the offense are averaging a jaw-dropping 40.0 points/game at home. The last time they played in Tampa, the Bucs scored 35 points in the first half. So we’ll play the Over tonight as the Super Bowl Champs host the 3-6 Giants. New York is off a 23-16 win over Las Vegas and then last week had a bye. So there’s been plenty of time to get the offense ready to put enough points on the board to help send this one Over the total. Giants’ road games have been pretty high scoring this year, averaging 52.1 points/game. They both score and allow more on the road than they do at home. The Over has hit each of the last six times these teams have played. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on LAC

Ben Roethlisberger passed COVID-19 protocols on Saturday and the expectation is that he will start tonight. But the Steelers aren’t a very good team. Without Big Ben, they tied the Lions last week in a very ugly game. While their record is 5-3-1, the Steelers have been outscored. We mentioned last week that none of their five wins this year have come by more than eight points. So they are probably a bit lucky to have a winning record coming into this game with the Chargers, who are looking to bounce back from a loss to Minnesota that leaves them at 5-4. The Chargers also have a slightly negative point differential on the year. But they’ve impressed us more as they’ve played only one bad game (at Baltimore). West coast teams usually have the edge in night games. The Steelers are banged up on the defensive side of the ball (no TJ Watt) while the Chargers may be getting Joey Bosa back. The Steelers average only 18.3 points/game on the road. The Chargers average 27.3 points/game. Justin Herbert is simply a much better QB than Big Ben at this stage of the game. Herbert will take advantage of that banged up Steelers defense. Lay the points. Play on LA CHARGERS

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This is a 10* on SEA

It’s looking like Kyler Murray won’t play for Arizona. That’s bad news for a Cardinals team that lost last week to Carolina, 34-10. If Murray can’t go, then Colt McCoy will again be at the helm. McCoy suffered a pectoral injury in the loss last week, so Arizona is really banged up at QB. They’ve also lost two of their last three games after a 7-0 start. Now Seattle obviously has its own set of problems as they are 3-6 and were shut out by the Packers 17-0 last week. Russell Wilson’s return to the lineup proved to be a real ‘dud’, but at least he’s back. Wilson threw two interceptions in the end zone against the Packers, which really proved to be the difference in the game. We expect Wilson will play a lot better this week in a game the Seahawks really “have to have.” The Seahawks’ offense scored 28 or more points in three of the first four weeks of the season, all with Wilson healthy. Having their starting QB back at the same time Arizona has major injury issues at the position is pretty fortuitous. We will take advantage of the situation here by taking the Seahawks, who are 36-15-4 ATS their last 55 games off a loss. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on DETROIT

The Lions are still winless, but they covered for us last week in Pittsburgh. We had them as nine-point underdogs in a game that ended up being a 16-16 tie. Now that line came down, by a lot, when it was announced Ben Roethlisberger wouldn’t play for the Steelers. But no matter what number you got the Lions at, it was an ATS win. The opponent this week (Cleveland) doesn’t have a backup QB, but they are a mess (lost 45-7 at New England last week) and should not be this large of a favorite against anyone right now. The Browns are 2-4 ATS in their last six games and one of the two games they covered was a three-point win. They did not cover the previous time they were double digit favorites (-13.5 vs. Houston). They have just two wins by more than 10 points this season. Meanwhile, as poor as this season has gone for the Lions, they’ve lost by more than 10 points only three times. They are 5-1 ATS when getting four or more points and have covered three straight road games. Play on DETROIT

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This is a 9* on UNDER

Expect the Jets and Dolphins to play a low-scoring affair on Sunday. The Jets are 26th in the league in scoring at 17.9 points/game. They are starting Joe Flacco at quarterback this week. That sounds dire. If you can believe it, the Dolphins actually rank lower in scoring than the Jets. They are scoring just 17.7 points per game. That ranks 28th. So we’ve got two of the bottom seven scoring offenses here. The reason the last six Jets games have all gone Over the total is because their defense is horrible, giving up a league-worst 32.9 points/game. When they face teams like Buffalo, Indianapolis, Cincinnati or New England (their last four opponents), that’s obviously a problem. Miami is unlikely to take advantage of this porous defense though. The Dolphins have scored only 50 points - total - the last three weeks. All three games went Under. On the bright side, the Miami defense has allowed just 19 points in the last two games, including a really impressive effort last Thursday vs. Baltimore. Play on UNDER

This is an 8* on OVER

Buffalo is #2 in the league in scoring, averaging 31.1 points/game. They put 45 on the board last week against the worst defensive team in the league, the Jets. They won’t need nearly that much here vs. Indianapolis for the game to go Over the total. That’s because the Colts are top eight in points scored at 26.8 per game. We’re really surprised that this number isn’t higher. Indy had scored 30 or more in four straight games going into last week’s 23-17 win against Jacksonville. Given how these two offenses have consistently put up points, how can you NOT go Over? The Over is 10-1 in the Colts' last 11 games vs. teams that have winning records. Play on OVER

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This is an 9* on HAWAII

We can’t see a Colorado State team that’s lost four straight games and has no shot at a bowl performing very well out in Hawaii this week. The home team is 2-0-1 ATS as a dog in Honolulu this year. That record could be 3-0 ATS depending on your closing line for the San Diego State game. The Rainbow Warriors are on a three-game losing streak themselves, but unlike CSU, they still have a chance to become bowl eligible if they win the final two games. This is also the final home game of the year, which is always a special atmosphere. Injuries are starting to pile up for the visitors and the defense just gave up over 500 yards last week in a loss to Air Force. Hawaii is the healthier team at this juncture of the season and has a winning record at home.  The only team that Colorado State has beaten on the road is New Mexico, who is the worst team in the Mountain West. Play on HAWAII

This is a 10* on UTAH

Oregon, despite being the #3 team in the College Football Playoff Rankings, is an underdog this week at Utah. We agree with the linesmakers on this one. The Utes are #23 in the country, so they’re obviously a team to be respected. They average (ever so slightly) more points per game than do the Ducks. They give up only slightly more. The number of yards gained per game by the two offenses is nearly identical. The Utes have scored 34 or more points each of their last six games. So, despite what the rankings say, you’ve got two pretty identical teams here. Both offenses will look to establish the run. But Utah has the home field edge. They’ve won 17 of their last 18 games in Salt Lake City. In the last three head to head meetings between Utah and Oregon, whomever has been at home has won. Oregon has lost a game in the month of November each of the previous six seasons. If you’re like us and you don’t think that the Ducks are going to make the Playoff, then it stands to reason that this is the game they are likely to lose. Play on UTAH

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This is a 9* on UNDER

After a disappointing start to their 2021 season, East Carolina has played much better down the stretch. The Pirates have won their last three games on the field and covered their last six at the betting window. That ATS win streak is one of the longest active streaks in the nation right now and ECU puts it on the line this week when they invade Navy. The Midshipmen are NOT having a good year. They are just 2-7 straight up and those two wins were by a combined seven points over UCF and Tulsa. The Navy simply seems to have lost its “firepower” as a 34-6 loss to Notre Dame two weeks ago was the third game this year with seven or fewer points. They’ve scored more than 20 just two times and rank last in the American Conference in both scoring and yards gained. East Carolina’s game last week with Memphis went to overtime, so the 30-29 final is a little misleading. We think the Pirates won’t have much trouble shutting down Navy’s sputtering triple option, but with how much the Midshipmen run the ball, the clock will be running most of the way. That means unless ECU gets a lot of explosive plays, this will probably be a pretty low scoring game. Look for ECU to be limited on the explosive plays and for the Under to hit for the sixth straight time for Navy. The Under has also hit the last four times ECU has been favored. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on WASHINGTON

Washington has had a rough couple of weeks with coach Jimmy Lake being fired. The Huskies are 4-6 and one of the most disappointing teams in the nation. But they can still make a bowl game if they win out for interim coach Bob Gregory, who previously served as defensive coordinator. Such motivation does not exist in Boulder where Colorado is 3-7 following a 44-20 defeat at the hands of UCLA last week. Two key players - LB Gustav and WR Lemonious-Craig - both suffered season-ending injuries in that game. So a bad team just got worse. Since joining the Pac 12, the Buffaloes have beaten UW just one time - back in 2019 as 14-point underdogs. Prior to that, it had been seven consecutive double digit losses by an average of 28.9 points/game. Washington seemingly was on its way to a win over Arizona State last week before giving away the game in the fourth quarter. The defense has allowed the second fewest yards in the Pac 12. We think the Huskies keep their bowl hopes alive with a big win on Saturday. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is an 8* on KENTUCKY

New Mexico State, one of the worst teams in the country, heads to Lexington this week to face a Kentucky team that was once ranked as high as #11. NMSU just got done facing another SEC team, Alabama, and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. The Aggies lost 59-3 and thus didn’t even cover as 50.5 point underdogs. It’s been a long season in Las Cruces as the team is 1-9 and that one win was against South Carolina State, who is not even a FBS program. The nine games versus FBS foes have not only all resulted in defeat, but seven of them have been decided by two touchdowns or more. Kentucky started the year at 7-0 (this is when they were ranked 11th), but then lost to Georgia, Mississippi State and Tennessee. They got back in the win column last week with a 34-17 win over Vanderbilt. That game was 31-3 at halftime. The Wildcats are on a 14-game win streak against non-conference teams and are done with SEC play for the year. Because they are honoring the 22 seniors beforehand, UK will be “up” for this game. A defense that’s quite good could pitch a shutout here. The offense will have no problem scoring 40 or more points. Play on KENTUCKY

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This is a 10* on OVER

Look for Houston and Memphis to trade points Friday night on ESPN2. The Cougars come in averaging 38.9 points/game. They’ve scored 40 or more in four of the last six games. The defense had a strong effort last week, holding Temple to just 8 points. But that is out of the ordinary for Dana Holgorsen’s team, which gave up 37 to SMU and 42 to South Florida the two games prior. Memphis is also no slouch in the scoring department as it averages 31.5 points/game. The Tigers’ offense has averaged 451.4 yards/game for the season, which is more than what Memphis averages. But, like Houston, Memphis has its problems defensively. They give up 35.8 points/game on the road. The last six times these teams have played, there has been at least 57 total points scored. Five times there has been 69 or more total points scored. The Over is 10-4 the last 14 times Memphis has been a road underdog. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times Houston has been off a win that was by 20 or more points. This feels like a game where both teams will score 30+ points. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on La Tech

Our view is that Louisiana Tech should roll in this Friday night Conference USA battle. Their opponent, Southern Miss, is one of the worst teams in the entire country. The Golden Eagles have just one win all year and that was against a FCS school (Grambling) back in September. Eight of their nine losses this year have been by double digits, five of them coming by 24 points or greater. USM did hang tough last week in a surprising showing at UTSA. But they used a “gimmicky” offense to do so and it resulted in their best player (RB Frank Gore Jr) getting injured. The offense still only gained 189 yards vs. UTSA and would have lost by 17 if not for the defense returning an interception for a touchdown. Louisiana Tech at least has some confidence after beating Charlotte 42-32 last week. This is their final home game, so the Bulldogs should be plenty motivated to go out and win big. They are 12-5 ATS following a straight up win. Louisiana Tech had over 500 yards of offense last week and a similar effort is quite possible tonight, which would likely mean a comfortable victory. Play on LOUISIANA TECH

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This is a 10* on NE

It seems safe to say that all signs point to a New England blowout tonight. The Patriots have won their last four games by a combined 100 points. They beat Cleveland 45-7 on Sunday, outgaining the Browns 2:1 and not allowing any points after the opening drive. Going on the road has not been a problem for these Patriots as they are 4-0 SU away from Foxboro with those four wins coming by an average of 10.5 points/game. Atlanta is 0-3 straight up and against the spread at home. They just got beat 43-3 in Dallas. Their top receiver Calvin Ridley is out and running back Cordarrelle Patterson is a game-time decision. Even if Patterson plays, we expect the Falcons offense to be ineffective in this game. They are 25th in scoring and 29th in rush yards. It doesn’t help that the defense is also 29th in points allowed. Though the 4-5 record doesn’t seem bad, Atlanta has been outscored by 85 points this year. This is a top five team against a bottom five team. Lay the points. Play on NEW ENGLAND

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This is a 10* on L'ville

Louisville should not have any problem beating up on a sorry Duke team Thursday night. The Cardinals enter this game off an impressive 41-3 win over Syracuse. That was a Syracuse team that had covered its previous seven games. As impressive as last week’s performance was, the Cardinals are still in need of one more win to become bowl eligible. Next week is the final regular season game and it’s against Kentucky. While at home, that is by no means a guaranteed win. So we look for L’vile to handle it’s business on Thursday against a Duke team that is 0-6 its last six games. Five of the six losses have been by 25 points or more! On Saturday it was a 48-17 loss at Virginia Tech. We see no reason to expect the Blue Devils to keep this one any closer. They are dealing with injuries at quarterback. The win over Syracuse may have been Louisville’s largest over a FBS team in six years. But we see no reason why they can’t repeat the effort tonight against a much worse team. After facing six straight opponents that had winning records, this should be a “walk in the park” for the road team. Play on LOUISVILLE

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This is a 10* on BUFFALO

The won-loss records of these two teams are quite misleading. Northern Illinois is 7-3 but has allowed more points than it has scored. Buffalo is 4-6 but has scored more than it has allowed. Hence the short number for this bit of Wednesday night “MAC-tion.” We’re going to side with the home team here, even though it is coming off back to back losses. Buffalo still has something to play for; if they were to win the next two games, then they become bowl eligible with six wins. The Bulls were MAC East Champs last year and would love to spoil Northern Illinois’ dreams of getting to the Conference Championship Game. The Huskies have won four games this year by a total of five points, which is nothing short of incredible and also very lucky. Last week was their third one-point win of 2021 as they kicked a last season FG to get by Ball State 30-29. But that was at home. The Huskies’ defense ranks ninth in the MAC in yards allowed (448.3 ypg) and seventh in scoring (30.8 points/game). Two weeks ago, they surrendered 52 points and 688 yards to Kent State!  Buffalo’s defense is first in sacks while NIU is last (among MAC teams). Play on BUFFALO

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This is a 10* on OVER

There’s been no shortage of points in these weekday MAC games. So when Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan hook up on Tuesday, don’t be surprised to see another shootout. Western Michigan comes into tonight off a 45-40 win over Akron last week. The Broncos are averaging 33.0 points/game in conference play, but at the same time the defense is giving up 34.8 points/game. They’ve allowed 40 or more in two straight games and three of the last five. Eastern Michigan had scored 50+ in back to back games before getting upset by Ohio last Tuesday. It will be a challenge for the Eagles defense to slow down a WMU offense that went for 533 yards seven days ago. Fortunately for the home team, it has averaged 465.7 yards over the last three games. It’s difficult for us to see either defense getting many stops in this one. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 Over L5 Tuesday games. Western Michigan is 7-1 Over L8 Tuesday games and 17-4 Over L21 November games. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

The big story for tonight is that Odell Beckham will be making his Rams’ debut. Beckham arrives in LA at an opportune time - the Rams lost last week to the Titans, 28-16, and then WR Robert Woods went down in practice with a season-ending knee injury. But Beckham may not be the only high-profile debut for the Rams here. On the defensive side, Von Miller could suit up for the first time since the Rams traded for him. Whether or not the former Bronco plays is dependent on the ankle injury that kept him out last week. The Rams are 4-0 on the road this season while the 49ers are 0-4 at home. But the 49ers have won all four meetings the previous two seasons, three of them as underdogs. We like the total tonight. The Rams being held to only 16 points last week (and that was with a late TD) was odd. They are among the highest scoring teams in the NFL at 29.0 points/game. On the road, the scoring average jumps to 32.3 points/game. Stafford is the only QB in the league to have nine games with 250+ yards passing. Since returning, the Niners’ Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown for 300+ yards in back to back games. With just one win in the last six games, the home team will be desperate here and knows it’s going to take a lot of points to win. The last three 49ers’ games have gone Over the total as either they have scored or allowed 30 points in all of them. San Francisco’s defense is allowing almost 30 PPG at home. Both offenses should bounce back from subpar performances last week. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY

It was ugly but Kansas City got a 13-7 win last week over Green Bay (who was without Aaron Rodgers). The Chiefs could not cover the inflated number though, so they are now 4-16 against the spread in their last 20 games. It may seem risky to lay points with Patrick Mahomes on the road right now, but we’re going to do it Sunday night in Las Vegas. The Raiders were exposed a bit in last week’s 23-16 loss to the Giants. It is true that they had 156 more total yards than their opponent. But this is a team that has now lost to the Giants and Bears, plus needed overtime to get by the lowly Dolphins. Looking at this pair of five-win AFC West teams, we are more confident in the Chiefs making a second half run than we are the Raiders. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is a 10* on SEATTLE

So the Seahawks are set to get Russell Wilson back. We do not yet know if the Packers will have Aaron Rodgers on the field. What we do know is that without Rodgers, the Packers could only score seven points against a Chiefs defense that is terrible. We also know that the Seahawks are a much better team with Wilson under center. Wilson is 24-12-2 ATS in his pro career as an underdog. When getting four or more points, he is 10-1 against the spread with seven outright wins. If Rodgers cannot play Sunday, then this line is a steal. Even if we knew he was playing, we’d still take the points. Why? All things considered, these teams are pretty even. Seattle’s point differential is +12. Green Bay, despite being 7-2, has a point differential of +19. The Packers are not as good as their straight up record and their ATS win streak, currently tied for the longest in the last three NFL seasons, is due to end. It won’t be until late Saturday that Rodgers’ status for this game becomes official. So even if he does play, that’s less than 24 hours to prepare. By the way, the Seahawks are coming off a bye. Play on SEATTLE

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This is a 10* on UNDER

The Browns got a huge win last week, beating Cincinnati by the score of 41-16. They did get a 99-yard INT return for a touchdown early in the game, which was a big swing. The offense for this team has been really “feast or famine” this season. Three times the Browns have topped 40 points. They also have four games where they scored 17 or less. Three of those came in the three weeks preceding the win over the Bengals. But another interesting thing about Cleveland is that the defense has had three games this year where it allowed 37 or more points. But it also has put together five games where it allowed no more than 16 points. The last three weeks have seen the Browns allow an average of 15 points/game. So which Browns offense - and Browns defense - will show up this week in New England? Well, we don’t like the prospects for the offense. Nick Chubb (COVID) may not be able to play. The Patriots allow only 18.6 points/game at home and last week held the Panthers to six points in Carolina. But the good news for Browns fans is that we’re not sold on rookie QB Mac Jones and the New England offense. Yes, Jones and company have put up some nice numbers in recent weeks. But they did so at the expense of some bad defenses. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on DETROIT

Coming out of a bye, is this the time for the Lions to finally win? The league’s only winless team (0-8) visits Pittsburgh this week. If you think the Steelers are as good as their 5-3 SU record, then you’re crazy. They nearly threw the game away Monday night vs. Chicago. By the way, how about the nice little scheduling advantage for the road team? They’re not coming off a bye, but also facing a team on a short week. The Steelers are only averaging 20.1 points, so why would you lay a big number with them? The Bears outgained them 414-280. It was the third game in a row that Pittsburgh won by five points or less. None of their wins this year have come by more than eight points. Going back to the end of last season, the Steelers have failed to cover the last eight times they were favored. Not only is Detroit 8-1 ATS coming off a bye week the last nine seasons, but teams 0-5 or worse coming off a bye are 18-6 ATS all-time. Definitely grab the points in this one. Play on DETROIT

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This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME

People seem to have forgotten about Notre Dame? The Irish have won four straight since losing to Cincinnati. They’ve covered the spread in all four of those wins as well. That Cincinnati game is their only loss and we certainly don’t see them losing Saturday night in Charlottesville to Virginia. The Hoos had their own four-game winning run snapped two weeks ago. They gave up 66 points in a loss to BYU. While they did score 48 or more for a third straight game - and are now coming off a bye - we just don’t see the home team having enough to stay inside the number against a clearly more talented football team. Even with the bye, Virginia may not have QB Brennan Armstrong, who sustained a rib injury against BYU. That would be a crushing blow to the home team’s hopes here. Notre Dame is already 3-0 this season vs. ACC teams need a big win to impress the playoff committee. They get it here. Play on NOTRE DAME

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This is a 10* on OVER

The last five Boston College games have all resulted in a win for Under bettors. The average number of total points scored in those five games is just 32.2! Last week was the lowest scoring game of the Eagles’ season, a 17-3 Friday night win over Virginia Tech. We realize that it’s been a struggle for them to score recently. But QB Phil Jurkovec has returned to the starting lineup and that should provide a spark offensively. BC faces Georgia Tech this week. The Yellow Jackets surrender an average of 31.7 points/game in ACC play and five of their last six have seen a minimum of 58 total points scored. So this has all the makings of the end to BC’s five game Under streak. While GT has lost three in a row, they scored 30 or more in two of the losses. They’ve also scored 30 or more in four of the last six games. When these schools played last year, the final score was 48-27 (BC won). Play on OVER

This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA 

Coastal Carolina starting quarterback Grayson McCall is out with an injury. He missed last week’s game against Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers still won 28-8. We liked them in that game and will take them again here, laying the points as this line is a bargain. Backup QB Bryce Carpenter didn’t have to do much last week. However, he ended up completing 66% of his passes. Were McCall in the lineup, we’d project this spread to be close to three touchdowns. Is McCall really worth almost 10 points? Probably not! Georgia State has the 103rd ranked pass defense in the country as it gives up 257 yards/game through the air. Carpenter will probably play well. Coastal has scored 27 or more points in all nine games this season. Georgia State has topped 28 just once. The Chants have won 12 straight home games and last year they beat GSU on the road by 51 points. 

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This is an 8* on OKLAHOMA

November is when Oklahoma typically starts to roll. The Sooners haven’t lost a November game since 2014, well before current head coach Lincoln Riley first arrived in Norman. They’ve won 23 straight November games, including 21 when favored. OU enters this game against Baylor with an undefeated record in 2021 (9-0) and we think they’ll stay that way. This is the second shortest line for one of their games all year. They were four point favorites for the Texas game, which they came back and won 55-48. At the time, that was the Sooners third straight close victory. Since then, they’ve won by double digits three straight times. It was 52-21 over Texas Tech two weeks ago. Last week they were off. Baylor suffered just its second loss of the year last weekend as they went down 30-28 at the hands of TCU. Coming off a loss and facing a rested OU team is not what we’d call a “good situation” for the Bears. Since the switch at quarterback to Caleb Williams, the Sooners have averaged 48.5 points/game. They are still only 8th in the CFP rankings, so look for them to make a definitive “statement” to the committee here. Lay it! Play on OKLAHOMA

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This is a 10* on BOISE STATE

Boise State is 14-1 all-time vs. Wyoming with the lone loss taking place in Laramie back in 2016. The first 10 meetings, all won by Boise, were decided by an average of 26 points/game. The last five have been closer games with four decided by single digits. The visiting team has covered 11 of the last 15 times. While we do acknowledge that this Boise team isn’t as good as years past, they are coming off their two most impressive wins of the 2021 season. They went to Colorado State and won 28-19 then last Saturday went to Fresno State and won 40-14 as a 4.5 point underdog. Wyoming also won as an underdog (+3) last week. They beat Colorado State 31-17. But the Cowboys’ previous four conference games had all ended in defeat and they went 0-4 ATS as well. This is a team that also struggled to beat UConn. While Boise has the same 5-4 SU record as Wyoming, the Broncos are at least 3-2 in conference play. They’ve lost two games this year where they had a double digit lead. So their record could be better. We like this to be a three touchdown win for the home side. Before last week’s win, Wyoming had not scored more than 21 points in any conference game. Play on BOISE STATE

This is a 10* on MIAMI

The history between the Ravens and Dolphins has been very one-sided. Baltimore has won eight of the last nine meetings and gone 9-0 ATS! The three most recent meetings (2016, ‘17 and ‘19) have seen the Ravens win by a combined score of 137-16! However, lets not forget what happened just three weeks ago. The Ravens played a Cincinnati team they were known for dominating. We said to take the points with the Bengals and sure enough THEY won the game 41-14! Miami probably is not capable of doing the same thing. But we do expect them to keep this Thursday night game within one score. Most Ravens’ wins this year have been close. Like last week when they beat Minnesota in overtime after trailing by two touchdowns. It was the fourth Baltimore win this year by fewer than seven points and second in overtime. Remember the Monday night game vs. Indianapolis where we played against them? That should have been a loss for the Ravens (they won, but did not cover). Miami was also a winner last week, with Jacoby Brissett as the starting QB, so that should give them some confidence heading into Thursday night. The Ravens, 0-5 ATS as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, are not as good as their record. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on PITT

Pittsburgh is having a better season than North Carolina. The Panthers are 7-2 straight up and against the spread while the Tar Heels are just 5-4 straight up and 4-5 against the spread. But UNC is coming off an impressive come from behind win over Wake Forest, who was undefeated. Impressive as the win was, the Tar Heels still gave up 55 points. They’ve allowed an average of 47 points their last three games. That is never good, but going up against a Pitt offense that scores 45 per game means real trouble. There have been four times this year that the Panthers have scored 50 or more points. One of those was last week as they beat Duke 54-29. That game would have ended up as an even bigger blowout had Pitt not allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. It hasn’t been just the last three games where UNC has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing 33.4 points/game for the entire season and that number is second worst in the entire ACC. The Tar Heels haven’t won on the road in 2021 (0-3), are 1-5 ATS their last six games as an underdog and 1-7 ATS their last eight games following an ATS win. Lay it. Play on PITTSBURGH

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This is a 10* on NIU

Northern Illinois suffered its first conference loss of the season last week. It was 52-47 to Kent State. The Huskies sure don’t seem to have the oddsmakers’ respect. They were underdogs at Kent State and they are underdogs here to Ball State, even though they’re at home. Ball State is just 3-6 ATS. The Cardinals did not cover the spread in a 31-25 win over Akron last Tuesday. The week before that saw them lose at home to Miami OH. We remember BSU winning the MAC Championship last season, but this year’s team hasn’t been as good. NIU put up season highs in points and yards last week, despite losing. The Huskies have been in every game besides the loss to Michigan. They’re looking to end a two-year losing streak to Ball State. Before losing the last two meetings, they’d won 10 in a row. This game is going to go a long way in deciding the MAC West. We believe the home team gets the job done as they are 9-2 ATS L11 games after an ATS loss. Play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS

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This is an 8* on OHIO

Home field advantage has not meant much in previous Ohio-Eastern Michigan meetings. Each of the last three times these teams have met, whoever has been the road team has covered the spread. The last two times the road team was an underdog and won straight up. So recent history is on Ohio’s side tonight. Long-term history is as well with the Bobcats owning a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS advantage over EMU going back to 1997. Ohio can’t make a bowl this year, but has covered four of its last five games and pulled an upset last Tuesday against Miami. They were 35-33 winners as seven point home underdogs. The defense shut Miami out in the first half. Eastern Michigan was also an upset winner last Tuesday as they downed Toledo 52-49 as a nine point dog. But their defense yielded a somewhat shocking 672 yards. With four losses by seven points or less, Ohio is better than its 2-7 record. We like them to keep this one close. Play on OHIO

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

Chicago is 1-5 ATS as an underdog this season and 0-3 ATS the last three games overall. But Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS when favored in 2021, losing two of the games straight up. So something is going to have to give on Monday Night Football. This is actually the most points that the Steelers have been favored by in any game all season. It was a wacky Sunday in the NFL and a Bears win here would certainly follow the pattern of results we saw yesterday. We’re not confident enough to predict the underdog winning outright here, but we do like the points. All four of the Steelers’ wins this year have been by one score. Chicago’s 3-5 SU record is not all that surprising when you consider they have faced six teams that have winning records. They didn’t have coach Matt Nagy on the sidelines last week because of COVID. Nagy is the play caller on offense. Rookie QB Fields showed some flashes last week vs. the 49ers when he ran for more than 100 yards. When it comes to number of completed passes, Fields’ last two games have been his best. We think this ends up being a close, albeit low-scoring affair. Play on CHICAGO

This is an 8* on LA RAMS

The Rams don’t need any help right now. They are 7-1 and clearly look to be one of the best teams in the league. But facing Tennessee when the Titans don’t have Derrick Henry is a HUGE break. The Titans have pulled three straight upsets, beating the Chiefs, Bills and Colts. Every game they were an underdog. We had them last week in Indy. But now there’s no Henry, who was the NFL’s leading rusher. Adrian Peterson, who is now 36 years old, is simply not an adequate replacement on that front. The Rams are averaging more than 30 points/game and they were up 38-0 last week. Their defense just got Von Miller, so now they’re even stronger on that side of the ball. History says the Titans are not likely to win this game. Only five teams since 1990 have started a season by winning their first five times as an underdog. Only four teams in HISTORY have won four straight times as an underdog of three or more points. So we will lay the points with a Rams team that was already superior to a Henry-led Titans team. Play on LA RAMS

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This is an 8* on ARIZONA

So both QB Murray and WR Hopkins are officially “game-time decisions” for Arizona. If one - or both - does not play, that obviously changes the game in a dynamic way. But remember what happened last Sunday night? The Cowboys announced they were resting Dak Prescott. The line shot the other way. The Cowboys won anyway. We believe the Cardinals can win this game, with or without Murray and/or Hopkins. The 49ers are a bit of a mess right now. They’d lost four in a row before defeating Chicago last week. And it wasn’t easy beating the Bears either. The Niners are typically terrible when favored (so we love getting Arizona as an underdog with all the uncertainty) and they have won just once in their new stadium since it opened last year. All the uncertainty over who will be the starting QB (Colt McCoy is Arizona’s backup) makes it tough for San Francisco to prepare. Arizona already beat SF once this year and still has the advantage. Play on ARIZONA

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This is an 8* on OVER

Dallas took a chance in resting Dak Prescott last week. It worked out. They went to Minnesota and beat the Vikings 20-16 thanks to a last second TD pass from backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Prescott will play this week against Denver, That means the Cowboys won’t have any problems putting up points against a Denver defense that just had to say goodbye to Von Miller. Dallas is #1 in the league in yards from scrimmage with 454.9 per game. The last eight home games with Prescott as the starter, the Cowboys have scored 35 or more points. Count on them doing most of the scoring here. But Denver will add enough points to ensure we hit this Over. The Cowboys defense is 28th in passing yards allowed, so the Broncos will be able to move the ball if/when they are behind. Play on OVER

This is a 9* on CINCINNATI

Cleveland is a mess right now. Odell Beckham Jr was just waived, Baker Mayfield is both injured and ineffective. If that’s not enough, the Browns have won just one of their last four games and that was a Thursday nighter vs. Denver. Cincinnati is coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets, so they won’t be taking the Browns lightly. Despite what happened last week, the Bengals are an improved team in 2021. They’d won back to back games by a total of 47 points before losing to the Jets. One was a 41-17 win at Baltimore. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is 0-7 ATS in AFC North Games. This year, the Browns are 0-3 ATS vs. teams that have winning records. Cincinnati has covered 10 of the last 12 games in this AFC North rivalry. Joe Burrow is already better than Mayfield. The Browns offensive line has been banged up all year and the defensive front is the strength of this Bengals team. Cleveland has been held to 17 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Lay the points with the favorite. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 10* on NO

New Orleans upset last week, but it was a costly win as Jameis Winston was lost to a season ending injury (ACL). There’s been some debate over who will be the Saints starting quarterback this week. We expect it will be Trevor Siemian, who was in for a good amount of last week’s game. Siemian did a fine job vs. the Bucs. He should do fine against the Falcons, who are one of the league’s worst teams. Atlanta is coming off a 19-13 home loss to Carolina. It was their fifth straight one-score game, but really it wasn’t close as the Falcons trailed the whole way. All three Atlanta wins have been close over bad teams. We just cannot see them going on the road and beating the Saints. New Orleans still has a great defense that is #1 in the red zone. Atlanta’s defense gave up more than 200 yards rushing last week. A run game would really be beneficial to Siemian. The Saints are 26-12 ATS in their last 38 division games. They’ve covered five of six over Atlanta. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on UTSA

There are six undefeated teams left in College Football. Five of them sit among the top nine in the first College Football Playoff rankings. The sixth is little-known UTSA out of Conference USA, who did not even make the Top 25. Now the Roadrunners are in the Top 20 of both the AP and Coaches Polls. They are 8-0 and - for the most part - blown out the teams on their schedule. They’ve played three games decided by seven points or less. The last one was not one of those. In their first game ever as a ranked team, UTSA crushed Louisiana Tech 45-16 two weeks ago. Coming off a bye, the Roadrunners next face UTEP, another surprising team at 6-2. The Miners have covered five in a row, but lost last week 28-25 at Florida Atlantic. UTSA is actually better than UTEP against the spread, holding a 7-1 season mark in that regard. We think the bye week is big for them coming into the Sun Bowl and they’ve already beaten UTEP four years in a row. Three of the wins have been by double digits. The last time they visited, UTSA was also off a bye and they won handily. Play on UTSA

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This is a 10* on FIU

Yes, we’re taking a team that has not won a game all season. Butch Davis’ Florida International Panthers are 0-7 currently. They host a 2-6 Old Dominion team this week. FIU has been on quite the nosedive for some time now. They didn’t win a game last year either. Although that’s somewhat misleading as they played only five games in the pandemic shortened season. It’s been 14 straight losses (including a bowl) for FIU since they pulled a shocking upset over Miami FL (Davis’ former employer) as 20-point underdogs in the second to last game of the 2019 regular season. But Old Dominion has only three wins during that same time frame and two were against FCS programs. The other came last week against Louisiana Tech when they were four point home underdogs. The Monarchs have not won a road game since midway through the 2018 season. (They opted out of 2020). ODU is 1-15 straight up its last 16 road games. Now they are favored on the road. No thank you. Old Dominion has gone 25 straight games without winning by more than a field goal. FIU has won the last two meetings by 7 and 8 points. Play on FIU

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This is a 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA

Coastal Carolina was in a tough spot in their last game. They were coming off a crushing last second loss to Appalachian State, which cost them an unbeaten season. Facing Troy, the Chanticleers overcame a slow start to win 35-28 but did not cover the 17-point spread. It was the first game this season where they did not score on their opening possession. But they still racked up over 500 yards of offense. With a couple extra days to prepare (Troy game was on a Thursday), Coastal should come out and lay it to Georgia Southern this week. At least that’s what we think. Georgia Southern is a program in flux right now. Earlier this week, they announced Clay Helton will take over as coach … next season. So acting coach Kevin Whitley is a bit of lame duck these last four games. The Eagles have won only once in their last seven tries. It was a tough loss last week to Georgia State and Coastal will be arguably the toughest opponent of the year. Earlier in 2021, the Eagles lost 45-10 to Arkansas. It’s probably going to be “one of those kinds of games” for them again here as Coastal Carolina averages 44.4 points/game. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA

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This is an 8* on UNDER

This is the only top 25 matchup on Saturday. The spot isn’t great for Auburn as the Tigers played Ole Miss last week. They won 31-20 but it was a hard fought, competitive game. Texas A&M didn’t have to play at all last week as they were on a bye. The Aggies have won three straight going back to their shocking win over Alabama. But Kyle Field is a place where Auburn has done well in the past. They’ve won all four previous visits to College Station. So we don’t see any value on either side in this Saturday afternoon showdown in the SEC. But we do love the Under, which is 9-2 in Auburn’s last 11 conference games and 9-3 the past 12 times that A&M has been off a bye. The Aggies have the #3 scoring defense in the land, giving up just 16.1 points/game. Only Penn State and Georgia have scored more than 23 on Auburn. So this one promises to be low scoring. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on ARMY

This game takes place in Arlington, Texas. Army marches into this week’s combat with a 4-3 record. But they’ve also lost three in a row. The most recent loss was two weeks ago against Wake Forest. It was a 70-56 game that featured more than 1,200 yards of offense. Typically, the kind of performance that Army turned in would be most teams. Two of the Black Knights’ losses have been to Power 5 teams. The other was to Wisconsin. Air Force is 6-2 and its losses came to Utah State and San Diego State. The San Diego State loss was two weeks ago and that’s the last time the Falcons have taken the field. So both service academies are coming off losses. As always, you’ve got to figure this will be a low scoring game. Underdogs have covered 12 of the previous 15 meetings of service academy teams (Army, Navy, Air Force) and won outright eight times. The last seven Army-Air Force games have averaged only 28 points. So you’ve almost got to take the points. Especially with Army beating Air Force three of the last four times they have played. Army needs two more wins to become bowl eligible, so this one matters more to them. Play on ARMY

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This is a 10* on STANFORD

With a 4-1 record in conference play, Utah essentially controls its own destiny in the Pac 12 South. They just defeated UCLA, in a 44-24 rout, last week. That win put the Utes in sole possession of first place in its division. If they were to win tonight and against Arizona and Colorado, who are the South’s two worst teams, they are guaranteed a spot in the Pac 12 Championship Game, no matter what happens against Oregon on 11/20. That being said, this is a lot of points that the Utes are laying here on Friday night. We understand that Stanford has lost three in a row. But the Cardinal are the one team to defeat Oregon this year and that win came here in Palo Alto. Stanford has NEVER beaten Utah in four previous tries at home (also 0-4 ATS), so you know David Shaw is going to have his team hungry “after dark” tonight. The Cardinal were 21 seconds away from a win last week, but gave up a touchdown and a two-point conversion to lose 20-13 to Washington. They were -3 in turnovers in that game, which cost them dearly. Shaw’s team has stepped up in big spots this season, not just against Oregon, but also beating USC. We think they make this a close game. Play on STANFORD

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This is a 10* on NYJ

The Jets picked up their second win of the year last week and did so in pretty shocking fashion. They trailed the Bengals 31-20 with less than five minutes remaining, but were able to put two touchdowns on the board to pull off an improbable 34-31 upset. While the second touchdown was somewhat of a gift (Bengals QB Joe Burrow threw an interception inside his own 20 yard line), the Jets deserved that win for gaining 511 total yards in the contest. That was nearly 200 more than they allowed to Cincinnati. Mike White, making his first NFL start, seemed to provide a huge spark for the offense that just wasn’t there with rookie Zach Wilson under center. White completed 37 of 45 passes against the Bengals for 405 yards and three touchdowns! He’s probably not going to put up those kinds of numbers again tonight, but we do look for White to lead the Jets to at least a cover against the Colts tonight. It was quite the heartbreaker for Indianapolis last week as they fell to division rival Tennessee in overtime. A short week does not do them any favors and we think the Colts may have trouble “getting up” for this game. Laying double digits in this scenario would be unwise. Other than getting blown out by Denver and twice by New England, the Jets have been in every game. White seems to be a spark. Play on NY JETS

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This is a 10* on ULL

Louisiana goes for its eighth straight win Thursday night and we don’t think they’ll have much difficulty getting it. The Ragin’ Cajuns are 4-0 at home this season, winning by an average of almost four touchdowns per game. They have put more than 40 on the board each of the last three times they’ve played at Cajun Field. This run includes a very impressive 41-13 bushwhacking of Appalachian State in another mid-week contest. Georgia State is the opponent tonight. The Panthers have won three straight games, but all were against teams at the bottom of the Sun Belt. It was a pretty lucky 21-14 victory last week at Georgia Southern, who turned the ball over three different times inside the 10 yard line. Clearly, that was the difference in the game. Remember that we said Louisiana has scored more than 40 in three straight home games? Unfortunately for Georgia State, they have scored more than 28 points in only one game this season and that was against a really bad Louisiana Monroe team. Look for this game to develop into a blowout. Play on UL LAFAYETTE

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This is a 10* on UNDER

There was certainly an abundance of scoring in last night’s “MACtion” with the three games totaling 225 points. We had the Over in Miami vs. Ohio, which got wild at the end with four touchdowns scored in the last five minutes. But it’s a whole different set of teams in action on Wednesday and in the case of Central Michigan at Western Michigan, we are taking the Under. To this point, neither team is seeing more than 58 combined points scored per game. Central Michigan averages 29.0 and gives up 28.4. Western Michigan also scores 29.0 points/game while at the same time giving up slightly less than CMU (27.3). We don’t expect this game to be 17-14 by any means, but the over/under line just seems a bit high to us. Central Michigan is 6-1 Under its last seven road games. Western Michigan allows only 19.8 points/game at home. Western has had two huge scoring games, one against Pitt and the other against Kent State, but has not exceeded 28 points in any of the other six. They were held to 15 by Toledo in their last game. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Ohio is 1-7 and looking to snap a three-game losing streak in MAC play. All three of those losses have been by seven points or less. Usually, this is one of the better teams in the conference. But with Frank Solich, the former head coach, retiring not long before the season started, things have gone downhill in a hurry in Athens. Rival Miami will take no pity on the Bobcats. The RedHawks have won two straight and three of four. The one loss in conference play was by one point, at Eastern Michigan. What we expect here is Ohio to end its streak of five consecutive games going Under the total. Their defense is allowing 31.1 points/game, so it isn’t very good. Take away the game vs. Akron, who is the worst team in the MAC, and the Bobcats have given up at least 28 points in every other game. The good news for the home team is that its own scoring average is up to 28.5 points/game in conference play. The Over is 5-1 in Ohio’s last six Tuesday games. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on KC

At 3-4, the Chiefs need to fix things in a hurry. Luckily for them, they’ve got a matchup with the Giants on Monday Night Football. The Giants should be no match for a Kansas City offense that struggled last week, but is known for putting points on the board. The Chiefs have put up 31 or more points in four of their seven games this season. The Giants have never reached that number even one time. Now we do have to worry about a double digit pointspread tonight. Fortunately, a Chiefs defense that has pitched two straight second half shutouts should have a large hand in covering this double digit number. In three of their seven games, New York has not scored more than 14 points. The Giants did pick up a rare win last week, but even in doing so they barely gained 300 yards. They’ve not exceeded 367 total yards in any of their last three games. Their feeble offense - which is still minus RB Barkley and WR Golladay - just won’t score enough this week to stay within the number. We anticipate something in the neighborhood of 30-14 Chiefs tonight. The Giants are 2-7 straight up and 1-8 against the spread vs. the AFC the last three seasons. Play on KANSAS CITY

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This is an 8* on OVER

Cowboys QB Dak Prescott is listed as a game time decision for the Sunday nighter against the Vikings. Whether or not he plays, we like this game to go Over the total. Dallas will have plenty of offensive firepower surrounding the quarterback, no matter who ends up starting. If it’s Prescott, then we need not even sell you on an offense that is putting up 34.2 points/game thus far. The Cowboys have scored more than that average in each of their past four games. We think that even if Cooper Rush is called upon, the offense can score enough to help this one get Over the total. Minnesota gave up 28 points the last time we saw them. The Vikings offense has scored 30 or more in three of the last five games. So they too can score. Kirk Cousins had a season-high 373 yards vs. Carolina. The Dallas secondary allows 13 yards per completion. The Over has hit in each of Dallas’ past four games and we’re getting a good number because of the uncertainty surrounding Prescott. The Over is 5-0 for the Vikings the last five seasons off a bye week. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY

Tampa Bay lost both regular season games against New Orleans in 2020. But they more than got their revenge in the playoffs when they came to the Superdome and won 30-20. As we all know, the Buccaneers ended up winning the Super Bowl. They remain one of the favorites to do so again this year while the Saints simply are not “what they used to be.” Part of that is Jameis Winston “replacing” the retired Drew Brees. This is not a good matchup for the home team on Sunday. They are working on a short week. While the Saints did win Monday night, it was as unimpressive a win as you’ll see. They beat the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks 13-10 with just over 300 yards of offense. Tampa Bay could not have looked much better last week as they scored five first half touchdowns, then coasted to a 38-3 win against Chicago. Both defenses here are excellent at stopping the run. So it comes down to Tom Brady vs. Winston. Who do you want your money on? Seems like a pretty easy answer, no? Play on TAMPA BAY

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This is a 9* on TENNESSEE

We firmly disagree with fellow bettors on this AFC South matchup. The line has moved to where the Colts are now favored. Yes, the game is in Indianapolis. But Tennessee is the better team here. The Titans are not only coming off impressive wins over the Bills and Chiefs, but back in Week 3 they defeated the Colts 25-16. Since losing in Week 1 to Arizona, Tennessee has not lost a game in regulation. They’ve covered four of the last five division games and five of the last seven times they’ve been an underdog. Even more impressive is the Titans’ 4-0 SU/ATS record against teams that made the playoffs last year. The Colts have never been able to stop RB Henry in the past. He has run for 135.5 yards/game in the last four meetings. The three teams that Indy has beaten this year are: Miami, Houston and San Francisco. All of them have losing records. We’ll take the better team getting points. Play on TENNESSEE

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This is an 8* on SF

The 49ers are facing a Bears team that a) isn’t very good and b) won’t have its head coach (primary play caller) on the sidelines. In other words, look for the road team to snap its four game losing streak. Chicago is 3-4, however every loss has been by double digits. They were smoked 38-3 by Tampa Bay last week and that game was 35-3 at halftime. Justin Fields has not provided any kind of upgrade from Andy Dalton at QB. San Francisco was supposed to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. They started 2-0 and things were looking good. But injuries quickly derailed things and they’ve lost a number of close games. This looks to be their most favorable matchup since a 17-11 win at Philadelphia back in Week 2. The Bears are just 1-4 ATS as underdogs. Not only are they without coach Matt Nagy, but top pass rusher Khalil Mack will be M.I.A. today. This should be an easy win and cover for the 49ers. Play on SAN FRANCISCO

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This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO STATE

San Diego State still has an undefeated record. The Aztecs are 7-0. Linesmakers did not believe in them last week. They were three point underdogs at Air Force but won 20-14. It was the second game in a row where the Aztecs won in low-scoring fashion while being outgained. This week they’re back at home to face Fresno State. Fresno State was lucky to beat Nevada 34-32 last week. They had to stop a two-point try on the final play. San Diego State hasn’t allowed more than 24 points in any game. They are seventh in the country with just 15.7 points/game allowed. The Aztecs are also better on special teams so they have distinct edges in two of the three phases of the game. Watch the line as SDSU is 8-1 ATS its last nine games as a home underdog. FSU is 0-6 ATS when coming off a game where they allowed 280 or more pass yards. They allowed 476 last week. Play on SAN DIEGO STATE

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This is a 10* on KENTUCKY

The only game Kentucky hasn’t covered is when they were a 31-point favorite vs. a FCS team. The Wildcats hadn’t lost a game straight up until two weeks ago when they fell 30-13 at Georgia. We took them with the points there. Fresh off a bye week and looking to get back in the win column, we look for UK to get the job done here against Mississippi State. The home team in this one has lost three of five. Two losses were close while the Alabama game wasn’t. Kentucky will badly want to win Saturday night as the last time they came away with a victory in Starkville was 2008. We love this spot for Kentucky, especially if they end up closing as the favorite. That’s because Top 15 teams favored by three or less over an unranked foe are 3-0 ATS this season and 11-4 ATS the past five seasons. The Wildcats have covered six straight SEC games, which is the longest active ATS win streak in the conference. Play on KENTUCKY

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This is a 9* on GEORGIA

Georgia has never been a favorite of 14 or more points against Florida. But this is a special Bulldogs team ranked #1 in the country. The defense is making history, giving up only 6.6 points/game. No defense allows fewer yards/game than this one. It gives up only 208.3 and is also #1 in first downs allowed for the year (just 84). They rank #2 nationally both against the run and the pass. Georgia’s seven wins have been by a combined 220 points and they’ve beaten four ranked teams, the last three all by 17 points or more. This is obviously the best team in the country right now. They have won 11 consecutive games. So we don’t want to bet against them - even if Florida is better than its overall record (4-3). The Gators lost two of three before the bye. Making matters worse for them is that Georgia certainly remembers last year’s 44-28 loss that cost them a fourth straight SEC East Title. Seven of the last eight times these rivals have played, the game has been decided by 14 points or more. This one will be no different. Play on GEORGIA

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This is a 8* on MICHIGAN STATE

This weekend’s only matchup of undefeated teams takes place in the state of Michigan. It’s Michigan State facing Michigan.  Both teams are in the top 10 and love to run the ball. They also share 6-1 ATS records. But the game takes place in East Lansing and the Spartans are coming off a bye. They are no strangers to being underdogs in this rivalry. All seven times they’ve faced a Jim Harbaugh-coached Michigan team, Sparty has been the dog. They’ve won three of the games straight up. We think they can do that again. They’ve really proven to be just as good - on both sides of the ball - as compared to the Wolverines. We think they have an edge at quarterback too. For Michigan, McNamara is averaging just 7.64 yards/attempt, which is 61st in the FBS. Michigan State’s Thorne averages 243 yards/game and has 15 TD passes against just four interceptions. This is usually the kind of game Michigan loses under Harbaugh. Play on MICHIGAN STATE

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This is a 10* on UNDER

There is one team in College Football that has gone Over in all of its FBS games this season. That is Tulsa, who returns to the field on Friday off a bye. The Golden Hurricane face a Navy team whose last five games have all seen a combined point total of 47 points or greater. That’s significant because of where tonight’s O/U line currently sits. But we expect a low-scoring affair in the American Conference tonight. That may seem strange. Going over all the 2021 results for both teams, there has been just one game - Navy’s 23-3 loss to Air Force - that has seen less than 47 combined points scored. But Navy’s offense isn’t getting it done this year. They’ve put up more than 20 points just two times. They do not even average 300 yards/game. Their 279.6 yards/game average is fourth worst in the FBS! While Tulsa has scored 67 points and gained 1,000 yards its last two games, they too are not immune from a poor offensive effort. Four of their seven games have resulted in 23 or less points scored. In this game, the Golden Hurricane will not have the same number of possessions as they are used to having. This is because Navy knows how to control the clock. Tulsa’s defense only gave up two touchdowns in its last game. That one went Over only because their opponent got touchdowns from its defense AND special teams. Don’t look for that to happen again tonight. Play on UNDER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Green Bay has won six in a row, covering the spread every time, with Aaron Rodgers throwing 15 touchdown passes and just one interception. Arizona is 7-0 and the last unbeaten team standing. They have covered the spread each of the last five weeks. So this is poised to be one of the better Thursday night games of the season. However, the Packers do have major concerns at wide receiver due to Adams and Lazard both landing on the IR/COVID-19 list. But Rodgers can still make it work. The defensive side of the ball has also been affected by COVID-19 with coordinator Joe Barry set to miss this game. That could be the bigger problem as Arizona comes in averaging 32.1 points/game, which is fourth most in the league. But the Cardinals’ defense also has concerns. JJ Watt is likely done for the season. Both of these defenses have not exactly been facing some of the elite offenses in this league recently. We look for the two quarterbacks - Rodgers and Kyler Murray - to make sure this game goes Over the total. Green Bay has gone Over each of the last five times it has been an underdog. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

This was a 44-24 game last year with ECU winning outright as an eight point underdog. That was their first win over USF since 2014. The Pirates came into last year’s meeting having lost each of their first two games by 20 or more points. Unfortunately, the win didn’t lead to any kind of turnaround in Greenville as ECU finished the 2020 season at 3-6. They’ve already matched that win total this season as they come into Thursday’s game at 3-4. USF is 2-5 and last Saturday saw them record their first win against an FBS opponent since 2019 when they beat ECU 45-20. We’re not positive as to who comes out on top this year (although it will likely be ECU), but you can feel safe in expecting another high-scoring battle. USF has scored 31+ in its last two games. But the Bulls have also given up 32 or more five times in 2021. ECU’s defense is also pretty bad, but the Pirates are averaging 33.3 points/game at home. The Over is 9-3-1 in the last 13 USF games and 11-5 in East Carolina’s previous 16 conference games. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on SEATTLE

It used to be that “Saints vs. Seahawks” meant  “Drew Brees vs. Russell Wilson.” But neither of those HOF quarterbacks are starting this game. Brees is retired and under the direction of Jameis Winston, the Saints’ passing attack ranks second to last in the whole league. For Seattle, Geno Smith makes his second start in place of the injured Wilson. While also a downgrade, things may not be as bad as they seem for the Seahawks. Smith has covered the number in six straight starts going back to 2014. He kept his team in the game last Sunday at Pittsburgh. Seattle is 0-2 at home in 2021, something we are not accustomed to seeing. But home teams have had the edge on “Monday Night Football” this year, going 5-1 ATS. This will be the first time since Week 5 of the 2018 season that the Seahawks are underdogs of four or more points. They are 5-0 ATS as home dogs going back to 2011. Facing the possibility of falling to 2-5, this game is more important to the Seahawks. In a battle of two teams that aren’t as good as they used to be, we will take the points. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on OVER

Indianapolis put up 31 points last week in a win over Houston. The week before that they put up 25 against Baltimore. The week before that they scored 27 against Miami. So that’s an average of 27.7 points the last three weeks and the offense is averaging 416.7 yards to boot. Carson Wentz is playing well for them. He has already thrown for more than 1500 yards and nine touchdowns against just one interception. Versus Baltimore, Wentz threw for a career-high 402 yards and then he averaged more than 20 yards per completion last week against Houston. So we expect them to put up a solid number of points this week. The Colts would have even more points scored this year if not for some unfortunate red zone inefficiency. As for San Francisco, Jimmy G is back in the starting lineup. The last time he finished a game was also on a Sunday night (vs. Green Bay) and the 49ers scored 28 points. The team is coming off a bye, so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for facing the Colts' defense. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on CHICAGO

The Bears are playing the Bucs this week, which looks like a mismatch on paper. However, this is a lot of points for the road team to be getting. Three of Tampa Bay’s wins have been by no more than six points. Another saw them return two late interceptions for touchdowns to make a deceiving final score. So we expect the Bears to at least “hang around” Sunday and keep this one respectable. Tampa Bay has a big division game on deck (at New Orleans) and could be looking past this one. There are four starters out due to injuries and all of them are big names (Gronk, Antonio Brown, Lavonte David and Richard Sherman). The Bucs defense has not exactly been very good. They’ve allowed the sixth most passing yards per game. Only one win has come against a Top 10 defense and that was a two-point victory at New England. The Bears’ defense leads the league in sacks. They beat Tampa Bay last season 20-19. Again, we expect this one to be relatively close. Grab the points. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on LV

Philadelphia was very lucky to cover last Thursday against Tampa Bay. They were down 28-7 in the third quarter. After scoring a TD late in the third quarter, they scored another late in the fourth, then added a 2-point conversion to get within the number. Tampa Bay drove the ball down inside the Eagles’ five yard line on the final possession, but ended up kneeling to run the clock out. Total yards in the game were 399-213 in the Buccaneers' favor. While it technically counts as a “close loss” for the Eagles, it was anything but. We don’t like their chances this week as they go into Las Vegas to face a Raiders team that is off a commanding 34-24 win over Denver last week. The Raiders are 4-2 and last week was an amazing performance when you consider all the drama caused by former coach Jon Gruden. The team is obviously willing to play hard for interim coach Rich Bisaccia. The Eagles are not well respected by the oddsmakers. They are one of only four teams that has been an underdog in every game. Their defense is 28th against the run. If not for a late comeback against Carolina two weeks ago, they’d be coming into this game on a five-game losing streak. Led by Derek Carr, look for the Raiders to move to 5-2 on the year and easily cover this short spread. Play on LAS VEGAS

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This is a 9* on CINCY

This is where we find out if the Bengals are “for real” or not. They come in with a 4-2 record. The only two losses have been by three points. They’ve also won two games by a field goal. Last week saw them record their most comfortable victory of the still-young season, winning 34-11 at Detroit. QB Burrow threw three touchdown passes in a game that was never really close. It will be a much tougher test this week in Baltimore. The Ravens are 3-0 at home so far. But two of the three wins came by six points or less. They too are off a dominant win, 34-6 over the Chargers in their case. With Lamar Jackson as the starting quarterback, the Ravens have really had the Bengals number the last couple years. But here’s the thing. The Bengals are now much better. Their defense is up to eighth in yards given up and fifth in points allowed. Because of the expectation that this game may be pretty low scoring, we will take the points. Cincinnati has covered five of its last seven trips into Baltimore. Burrow is 6-2 ATS as an underdog of three or more points. Play on CINCINNATI

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This is a 9* on UNDER

The Patriots are still without a home win this year, but that’s likely to change after today. They host the Jets, a team they’ve already beaten 25-6. But if New England is to pick up that elusive first home victory, expect it to come in low scoring fashion. We are on the Under in this AFC East matchup. The Jets are off a bye and have been an underdog in every game. Rookie QB Wilson threw four picks the first time he faced Belichick’s defense. It was not a pretty sight. Here’s the thing though: the Patriots’ offense gained only 260 yards in that game. In three of the four home games this year, New England has failed to score 20 points. So we’re not counting on them scoring a ton here. Most of those 25 points they scored in the first game with the Jets were off turnovers. For the Jets, QB Wilson hasn’t matured enough where we’d expect him to play that much better in this rematch. But he should limit the turnovers this time. The Jets’ offense hasn’t gained 300 total yards in any game that didn’t go to overtime. That’s pretty sad. The Jets are last in points per game (13.4), 31st in total yards and 31st in rushing. New England only had 14 points with six minutes to go last week and they rank 26th in total yards and 27th in rushing yards. Play on UNDER

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This is an 8* on AIR FORCE

6-0 San Diego State holds two wins over the Pac 12. But the Aztecs face their toughest test to date this week at Air Force. The Falcons also have six wins this year. They did lose once, a 49-45 shootout vs. Utah State where both teams had over 600 total yards of offense. You should not expect that amount of offense in this game. Oddsmakers opened the total at 42.5 and it has DROPPED. Also, that loss to Utah State is looking more curious with each passing week as the AFA defense has not given up more than 17 points in any other game! Boise State, whom the Falcons beat 24-17 last Saturday, is the only other team besides Utah State to even crack 300 yards on this defense (Broncos gained 337). San Diego State has a nice defense too. But the season average is still on par with Air Force despite the Falcons having that one bad game. San Diego State is lucky to still be undefeated as they needed two overtimes last Friday to get by San Jose State. The Aztecs were outgained 345-240 and had just six points (two field goals) at the end of regulation. They just do not have the offense to keep up in Colorado Springs where they will be frothing at the mouth to end an eight-game losing streak to SDSU. At least one unbeaten team goes down on Saturday night. Play on AIR FORCE

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This is an 8* on OVER

Except when they played Georgia (gave up 56 points) and Liberty (gave up 36), the defense of UAB has been pretty stout in 2021. That’s nothing new under Bill Clark. The Blazers had a solid defense last year as well. The Under is 6-1 in their games this season and 5-0 the last five. They are not facing an opponent the caliber of Georgia or Liberty this week. Rice has been shutout twice and scored no more than 17 points four different times. But UAB could put this one Over themselves. Again, taking away those two games vs. Georgia and Liberty, the Blazers offense has scored a minimum of 28 points every game. They’ve scored 31 and 34 the past two games and that was against defenses that aren’t as bad as the one they face this week. Rice gave up 45 last week at UTSA. It was the fifth game this season where the Owls allowed at least 34 points. They’ve allowed 34 or more in half of their games. Give us at least one touchdown Rice and we’ll like our chances with the Over. The Over has hit in all of Rice’s previous five visits to Birmingham. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on ARMY

After consecutive three point victories (over Louisville and Syracuse), undefeated Wake Forest probably needed the week off. The 6-0 Demon Deacons, now ranked 16th in the land, will next put that record to the test against Army. A week off before facing the Cadets is always preferable due to the added preparation for the triple option offense. But in the case of Wake, we just don’t see them having much success stopping Army’s ground game on Saturday. In those last two wins we spoke of (Louisville, Syracuse), Wake allowed 567 yards rushing. Ouch. Army averages nearly 300 rush yards/game. They were held well below that mark last week. But that was because they were facing a Wisconsin defense that is #1 in the country vs. the run and thus uniquely suited to stop them. The same can’t be said for this Demon Deacons’ defense. Army was 4-0 before suffering a shocking loss to Ball State, then losing by three in Madison. Now getting to play host to a Power 5 school will ensure there is no letdown in West Point. Wake is 1-5 ATS its last six tries as a road favorite. Army has covered seven of the last nine times it has been an underdog to a Power 5 team. Play on ARMY

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This is a 9* on OVER

Oh hi Penn State, we’d almost forgotten about you. It’s been two weeks since the Nittany Lions suffered their first loss of the year. They lost 23-20 at Iowa, a game where their four turnovers played a significant role in the outcome. James Franklin’s team got last week off to recoup and now should be ready to hand out a beatdown in State College to visiting Illinois. The Fighting Illini come into this one with a 2-5 straight up record and one of those wins came back in August. That would be when we had them vs. Nebraska in the season opener and they pulled the upset. They too are coming off a bye. Despite that, both teams could be without their starting quarterbacks for this one. We still like the Over. Illinois should be used to playing without Brandon Peters at this point. Backup Artur Sitkowski was in for the first two games where the Illini put up 30 plus points. Illinois can also run the ball as the duo of Brown and McCray have gone for 748 yards. We don’t have much confidence in the Illini’s ability to defend, however. Starter Sean Clifford practiced this week for Penn State. But the Nittany Lions may not even need him. That’s because Illinois’ defense ranks last in the Big 10 in scoring, pass defense, total defense and third down rate. They allowed 493 yards in the last game (to a Wisconsin offense that hasn’t been impressive otherwise). Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on UCF

UCF has seen its season go in a bad direction ever since QB Dillon Gabriel was injured on the final play of the Louisville game. That play saw Gabriel throw a pick six to cost his team the game and they’ve lost two of three since. One of the losses was to Navy as a 15-point favorite. The other was last week to Cincinnati as a 22-point underdog. We’re obviously not going to penalize a team for losing to Cincinnati. In between the losses, both of which came on the road, the Golden Knights did defeat East Carolina 20-16 here at home. Now they are hosting Memphis on Friday. The Tigers come in having just snapped their own three-game losing streak. They beat Navy 35-17 at the Liberty Bowl. It was the first time this season that Memphis faced a FBS opponent and the game wasn’t decided by six points or less. We can see the home team squeaking out a close one here. Memphis relied on big plays to beat Navy, something they can’t always count on. The Tigers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 3-10 ATS coming off a straight up win. The last 14 meetings between the two schools have seen the home team cover 13 times and the one exception was UCF. Play on UCF

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This is a 10* on OVER

A multitude of injuries on the Cleveland side have seen this spread drop like a rock and with it, the total has come down as well. But be mindful of the fact that Denver just put up over 400 yards last week in a loss to the Raiders. They only scored 24 points because they had four turnovers. The Browns defense isn’t very good; it has given up 84 points the last two games. So we expect the Broncos to score a decent amount of points in this Thursday night road tilt. But their own defense has some issues that may not be properly addressed in a short week. Since a 3-0 start that saw them hold the Giants, Jets and Jaguars to a total of 26 points, Denver’s defense has given up an average of 28 points in three straight losses. The Browns will start Case Keenum at QB. Most will tell you how this is a downgrade from Baker Mayfield and they aren’t wrong. Keenum is not helped by the fact that over half of the Browns’ offensive starters are injured. However, the Broncos’ defense has a ton of injuries as well. Three linebackers are out. The Over is 6-2 the last eight times the Browns have been off a loss. Too many things can happen in an NFL game - like a touchdown by the defense or special teams - for us not to choose Over when the total is this low. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE

Charlotte, despite having a better record than Florida Atlantic, is a touchdown underdog at home on Thursday. The 49ers’ only losses were by 9 pts to Georgia State and by 10 points to Illinois. Both of those losses occurred out on the road. They’ve won all three home games, including an upset of Duke in the opener. Two weeks ago saw them go to Florida International and win 45-33. Florida Atlantic is the road team in this one and they are 0-3 in that role this year. All three losses have been by 17 points or more. Now the teams the Owls have traveled to face - Florida, Air Force and UAB - are all pretty good. But they only scored 35 points in those games. Charlotte has covered the last four times these teams have played. We won’t go so far as to say they’ll win Thursday night, but we like them plus the points. Play on CHARLOTTE

This is a 10* on OVER

Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State meet Wednesday night in a matchup that is very likely to determine who represents the East Division in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Coastal Carolina won the division last year and had a perfect 11-0 SU record going into the bowls. They are perfect again (so far) this year with a 6-0 SU record. Appalachian State has already lost two games in 2021, but only one in conference play and that was last week to Louisiana, which came by a rather shocking score of 41-13. The Mountaineers lost at Coastal Carolina 34-23 last year, a result that decided the SBC East Division. Coastal Carolina is even stronger this year as they have scored at least 49 points five times and averaged 54.7 points their last three games. So considering how many points App State allowed last week to Louisiana, this is an automatic ‘Over’ for us. One would expect the home team is going to score a lot more than it did last week. The Mountaineers averaged 35.2 points/game the first five weeks of the season. They are easily the best team Coastal Carolina has played this season. Both teams will have no problem getting to 30 points. The Over is 6-0 the past six times Appalachian State has been off an ATS defeat. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on OVER

Though they lost Week 1 to the Steelers, this start to the season that the Bills have put together really couldn’t be much more dominant. They’ve scored the most points in the league and also given up the fewest. On Monday they will face the Titans, a team that beat them 42-16 in a rare Tuesday game last season, and we believe that the Buffalo offense will keep humming right along. We warned you about this Tennessee defense back in Week 1 when we played the Cardinals. The Titans gave up 38 points in that game. They have given up at least 27 in three of their five games, one of those times coming against the Jets who are last in the league in scoring. The Bills come in averaging 34.4 points/game and should hit that average tonight. As for the Bills having allowed the fewest points, it obviously helps that they have faced Miami and Houston. The other three games have seen them give up 20 or more points every time. Tennessee remains a strong team offensively with RB Derrick Henry, who has 640 yards and four straight 100-plus yard games. The Over is 25-9-1 in the Titans’ last 35 games overall and 7-1 the last eight times they have been an underdog. Play on OVER

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This is an 8* on SEA

So no Russell Wilson for Seattle. But are people really willing to lay this many points with a Pittsburgh team everyone was writing off two weeks ago? Before beating Denver 27-19 last week, the Steelers had lost three in a row and not scored 17 points in any of the games. They aren’t a good team by any means. In the win over Denver, JuJu Smith-Schuster was lost to a season-ending injury. So that makes the offense even worse. The Seahawks’ offense obviously takes a massive hit without Wilson. But remember that Geno Smith, the first QB other than Wilson to start for Seattle since 2011, did drive the field for a TD when he had to come in last Thursday. Getting the mini-bye is a big assist to Smith, who is 5-0 ATS his L5 games as a starter. The Seahawks are 16-8 ATS under Pete Carroll as an underdog of four or more points. The last five times Pittsburgh has been favored, they have lost the game. Play on SEATTLE

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This is an 8* on OVER

Well, there’s a lot going on with this matchup isn’t there?. Arizona, the only undefeated team left in the NFL, will be without its head coach and QB coach because of COVID-19. This is on top of several on the field absences: Center Rodney Hudson, TE Maxx Williams and LB Chandler Jones. But Cleveland is not unscathed coming into Week 6 either. They will be missing RB Nick Chubb. There were 16 others on the injury report, several of whom will not play. But these teams are still more than capable of sending this one Over the total. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is having an MVP caliber season thus far as he has completed 70% of his passes in four straight games. The offense is fourth in points per game at 31.4. The Browns were just involved in a 47-42 game last week. They lost despite gaining 531 yards. While Chubb is out, Baker Mayfield can still hand the ball to Kareem Hunt, who once led the NFL in rushing.. Arizona being banged up in the secondary should open things up for the Browns in the passing game. When these defense have turned in quality performances this year, it has been because they’ve faced subpar quarterbacks. We believe the total has come down too much for this matchup. Play on OVER

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This is a 10* on LAC

The Chargers look like a good team this year. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS. They are 8-1 ATS L9 games, going back to 2020. They lead the AFC West after coming back to beat Cleveland 47-42 last week. They had a season-high 500+ yards in the game. The Chargers’ only loss was to Dallas on a last second field goal. QB Herbert seems like the real deal. He is fourth in passing yards and third in touchdowns. Now LA faces Baltimore, who is on a short week. The Ravens needed a wild comeback of their own to beat the Colts 31-25 on Monday night. It was their fourth win in a row, but third by six points or less. The other two were by a combined three points. They just as easily could be 1-4 straight up and we’d be having a much different conversation here. The Chargers are 49-22-5 ATS as road underdogs, 5-2 with Herbert as the quarterback. We will go with the better team getting points. Play on LA CHARGERS

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This is a 7* on CINCY MONEY LINE

Poor Detroit can’t seem to buy a break. Twice in the past three weeks they have lost on a last second field goal. Last week they battled back from a 16-6 fourth quarter deficit and took a 17-16 lead with 37 seconds left. But they let Minnesota drive down to kick a game winning field goal on the final play. It was a very similar story and the same 19-17 final three weeks ago vs. Baltimore when Matt Prater got them with a record-setting 66 yard field goal at the gun. We get why people may think the Lions could break through this week when they host Cincinnati. But how can they overcome such continual heartbreak? Cincinnati is 3-2 after losing in overtime to Green Bay last week. Four of their five games have been decided by a field goal. So we won’t lay the points, but we do like the Bengals to win. The Lions haven’t scored more than 17 points in any of the last four weeks and Jared Goff is averaging only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. The team has covered back to back games just twice in its last six tries. Cincy has wins over Minnesota and Pittsburgh and could have beaten Green Bay. The money line means we don’t have to worry about them winning by more than three. Play CINCINNATI on the money line

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This is an 8* on JACKSONVILLE

After going 0-3 with Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback, Miami will welcome Tua Tagovailoa back on Sunday. At least it looks that way. Coach Brian Flores said “if all goes well” in Friday’s practice, Tua will get the start. This next game comes in London against the 0-5 Jaguars. The matchup coupled with a potential Tua return has to have Dolphins fans thinking this is one where they end their losing streak. But they’ve been as bad as anybody this year, getting outscored by 76 points the last four weeks. The ‘Fins do have a worse scoring differential than the Jaguars this year. Speaking of losing streaks, the Jags have dropped 20 in a row going back to Week 1 of last year. They too look at this matchup as the one where they can end the streak. They are desperate and looking at the next couple weeks, we don’t see a game as “winnable” as this one for the Jags. Maybe leaving the country is what they need! Urban Meyer is certainly looking for a “vacation” after his rough last couple of weeks. Though they did lose on the scoreboard 37-19, Jacksonville ended up outgaining Tennessee last week and put up a season-high 454 total yards. Miami should not be favored against anyone, not even the Jags. Play on JACKSONVILLE

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This is a 10* on UTEP

UTEP is 5-1, which is their best record in ages. The Miners lone loss came at Boise State. Since then they have beaten New Mexico, Old Dominion and Southern Miss while covering the spread in every game. They are home underdogs this week to Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs had last week off. A quick note about their season - all five games have been decided by seven points or less. So we wouldn’t want to be caught laying so many points with them on the road. The wins came against SE Louisiana and North Texas. The defense is giving up almost 475 yards/game. UTEP’s defense barely allows more than 300. It’s that defense that will give Dana Dimel’s team the chance to pull the upset this week. At the very least, UTEP stays within the number. They were 3-0 ATS as a double digit dog vs. Conference USA opponents last year. The spread isn’t quite that high here. But this game means a lot to UTEP as they’ve lost eight straight times to La Tech despite outgaining them in half those games. La Tech is only 1-4 ATS the previous five times they have been favored. Play on UTEP

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This is a 9* on OVER

Alabama, coming off its first loss since November 2019, heads to Starkville this week to face Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide were stunned last Saturday night down in College Station, losing to Texas A&M as 15.5 point favorites. They gave up 41 points, too many to overcome, especially after falling into a two touchdown hole at halftime. But the Tide did outgain the Aggies 522-379. They put up 38 points and have now scored 31 or more every game in 2021. They should not have a problem moving the ball or scoring on Miss State, who was off last week after they went on the road and defeated Texas A&M two weekends ago. The Bulldogs’ defense has had only one good game so far. They’ve been pretty consistent on offense, averaging 27.8 points/game. Miss State has not scored many points on the Bama defense through the years, but Mike Leach is now the head coach. Leach’s offense is averaging 429 yards/game, almost all of it coming through the air. Will Rogers is the only SEC quarterback to throw for 400 yards and two or more TDs in the same game and he’s done it twice. Off a loss, Bama will come out firing but MSU can score too. Play on OVER

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