This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Seattle Mariners.

In my opinion, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return in this matchup. After a slow start to the season the M's are starting to find their stroke both on the mound and at the plate, suffice it to say I am fully expecting this momentum to get carried over here. After a four-game losing streak, Seattle has won back to back games and slugged out 17 hits to win 11-10 vs. the Rangers yesterday, one day after Felix Hernandez struck out 12 in Saturday's 3-1 victory. And that's bad news for Astros starter Asher Wojciechowski who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA to start the year. Wojciechowski struggled in his first outing after getting called up to replace Brad Peacock after he went on the DL and was a bit better in Monday's 8-1 loss to Oakland, giving up two hits over four scoreless frames. Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma can empathize, he's struggled over his first two starts in giving up nine runs and three homers in 11 innings, but note that the M's are 5-3 (+1.3) units vs. right-handed starters this year. I'm giving the Mariners the slight nod on the bump and a slight nod at the plate, all signs point to SEATTLE on the RUN-LINE as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Kansas City Royals.

I believe the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy plus money return. The Royals are rolling, they're off to their best start after 12 games since 2003. Twins' starter Kirk Gibson has had plenty of success vs. the Royals in the past, winning all four starts while posting a 1.38 ERA in the process, but note that he's just 1-1 with a 6.10 ERA so far this year. Minnesota has won four of five and I think is now primed for a letdown here, it would most recently pull off the 7-2 victory over the Tribe on Sunday. The home side counters with Edinson Volquez who is 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA, throwing opposite Gibson in last week's 3-1 setback. Volquez is 0-1 against the Twins in two starts despite posting a very respectable 2.63 ERA. I'm giving Volquez the big nod on the mound and that's more than enough to tip the scales in favor of KANSAS CITY on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the big plus money return today. The home side turns to Alfredo Simon who is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA; note that Simon is a near-perfect 6-1 with a 1.72 ERA and a tiny .187 opponent batting average in seven April starts since the start of last year with Cincinnati. Most recently Simon would scatter two hits over eight innings of Wednesday's 1-0 win in Pittsburgh, striking out just two but walking none. His team comes in with plenty of momentum as well as the Tigers would clobber the White Sox 9-1 on Sunday, the lineup has a big .305 average. And that's bad news for Yanks' starter CC Sabathia who is 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA thus far; note that the veteran gave up four runs and seven hits over seven frames in Tuesday's 4-3 loss in Baltimore. Also note that I feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot for New York, after a sluggish start it's coming off a very satisfying sweep in Tampa Bay over the weekend. Play on DETROIT on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Oakland Athletics.

In a contest in which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no issues whatsoever in laying this price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors send Drew Pomeranz to the hill, he'd post a 2.58 ERA in ten starts last year and would give up two hits over seven frames without a walk and six K's in his season opening 12-0 win over the M's on Friday. The A's have been giving their pitchers plenty of support, the team averages 6.1 runs per game so far this year. In fact, six of the A's nine starters are hitting better than .300 on the year. The home side counters with Collin McHugh, who gave up one run over six innings in his team's 5-1 win over Texas to improve to 8-0 with a 1.75 ERA over his last 11 starts. Unlike the A's though, the Astros are still struggling with consistency at the plate, they're hitting just 5 for 48 with runners in scoring position this year. Play on the ATHLETICS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers are rolling and in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problems at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. After losing 5-4 to Pittsburgh on Monday night, the Tigers bounced back with a 2-0 win on Tuesday. Detroit is batting .328 and averaging 6.6 runs per game so far this year. Alfredo Simon gets the call for the visitors, he has plenty of experience throwing against the Pirates while with the Reds and has gone 2-1 with a 4.23 ERA in his last four vs. them. Simon looked pretty good in his debut for his new club, giving up three runs over 5 1/3's innings in the Tigers' 8-4 win over Cleveland on Friday. The home side counters with Francisco Liriano, who missed his second scheduled start because of the birth of his daughter; Liriano gave up two runs, two hits and three walks over seven innings on April 6th vs. the Reds, leaving without a decision. Liriano would be wise to be wary of Tigers' slugger Victor Martinez though, who is 13 for 28 with a home run and six doubles against him. And note that Pirates' slugger Andrew McCutchen is hitting only .185 this year, but still somehow manages to lead the team with seven RBIs. Play on DETROIT on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

In a contest which I expect to be decided late or in extra innings, I have no problem at all in laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Miami notched its second win of the year in Tuesday's 8-2 win over Atlanta, but I think will have a predictable letdown here. The visitors send Dan Haren to the mound, Haren would give up one run over six frames in his team's 10-9 win over Tampa Bay on Friday, not factoring into the decision. The home side counters with Eric Stults, who gave up five runs in a 5-3 loss to the Mets on Friday. Stults last faced the Marlins while with San Diego back on May 10th and would give up two runs over six innings of a 9-3 victory. Haren had a pretty decent season a year ago, but his one glaring weakness was his play on the road where he finished just 6-7 with a pedestrian 4.75 ERA. Stults on the other hand posted a 4.03 ERA in friendly confines in 2014. I think Haren is clearly the better pitcher, but simply think this is a bad match-up for him and one we can take advantage of; play on the BRAVES on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

I think Mike Leake and the Reds can keep this one close enough to escape with the ATS cover and have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extras. The home side turns to Jon Lester, who was tagged for three runs off eight hits over just 4 1/3's innings in his teams 3-0 opening day loss to St. Louis. The Reds turn to Leake who gave up three runs and five hits and six walks over 5 2/3's innings vs. Pittsburgh on Wednesday, they'd need an extra inning to secure the win. Note that Leake has dominated the Cubs throughout his career though in posting a tiny 1.71 ERA in his last four vs. them. The last time the Reds visited Wrigley, they'd score just one run while getting swept from Sept. 15th-17th. Suffice it to say, I don't see that happening this week. Play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

This is a big game for the Tigers and their ace Max Scherzer, when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I expect the home side to walk away with a convincing victory and feel the value is this contest is in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Detroit wrapped up a playoff spot last night, but is still seeking a fourth consecutive Central title and Scherzer will be looking to make a statement in his final regular-season start: “The goal is to win the division," manager Brad Ausmus said after his team’s 6-1 win over the White Sox. Scherzer (17-5, 3.19 ERA) is in the final year of his contract and could test the free agency market after this season; Scherzer comes in with momentum after giving up one run over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Royals on Saturday. Note that despite owning a 5.00 ERA in two starts vs. Minnesota this year, Scherzer is 2-0 in those contests and is 8-1 with a very respectable 2.97 ERA in his last 11 outings in this divisional series. Minnesota looks to close out a losing season and will do so without the services of slugger Trevor Plouffe who broke his arm in yesterday’s 2-1 win over Arizona on Wednesday. The visitors counter with confirmed gas can Trevor May (3-5, 8.39 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs over 4 2/3’s innings in his team’s 7-3 loss to the Tribe on Saturday. May has been all over the map with his performances this year, I think he’ll be in for a long day and he’d better be careful of Tigers outfielder JD Martinez who is hitting a whopping .429 over his last 10 games vs. the twins and .500 over his last ten overall. A massive pitching mismatch; a massive offensive mismatch; a massive motviational and situational mismatch; all of these factors collide making the TIGERS on the RUN LINE the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers.

I played the Dodgers on the money line yesterday and while it took them a bit to get going, they’d eventually pull away down the stretch for the comfortable victory. And now with league wins leader Clayton Kershaw about to take the mound, I look for an outright beatdown here and definitely feel the value lies in laying the 1.5 runs in this situation. Kershaw (19-3, 1.70 ERA) gave up two runs over eight frames in a 4-2 win over San Francisco on Sunday. Kershaw leads the league in many catetgories, including strikeouts per nine innings (10.63), opponents batting average (.190) and WHIP (0.83). Kershaw has won five straight behind a minuscule 1.13 ERA and not surprisingly the Dodgers have won 18 of his last 19 outings. Kershaw has dominated the Cubs throughout his career, he’s 3-2 with a 1.60 ERA lifetime against them. And that’s bad news for Cubs scheduled starter Edwin Jackson (6-14, 6.09 ERA) who hasn’t thrown since August 20th when he was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over just 2 2/3’s innings in an 8-3 loss to the Giants. Jackson is a  confirmed gas can, he owns the worst ERA in baseball among 96 pitchers who have started at least 25 games. The Cubs bullpen looked brutal yesterday and is going to be called upon early today with the volatile Jackson on the mound, I think the surging visitors take full advantage; play on LA on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 6* BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the Toronto Blue Jays.

I think this is a great situational play, the visitors will be plenty motivated here, while the home side is primed for a letdown after locking up the AL East title last night. Even if the Orioles run the table (11 games), it may still not be enough to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and as such, I think the the home side will take advantage of this situation and rest some regulars today. The Orioles hand the ball to Bud Norris (13-8, 3.74 ERA) who has been exceptional of late, he’s 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA vs. the Jays this year, but I think will have his hands full vs. this determined visiting side. The visitors counter with JA Happ (9-10, 4.28 ERA) who has lost five of his last six despite posting a respectable 3.93 ERA. Note that Happ was dominant vs. the Rays on Friday, giving up one run and two hits over seven frames while walking one and strking out seven in an unfortunate 1-0 setback. And that’s bad news for Baltimore as Happ has been excellent against it, going 1-2 with a tiny 2.32 ERA in his last five in the series (note that he’s gone 1-1 against it this year, giving up just three runs in 14 innings with 18 K’s and one walk). I think the pitchers are a “wash” and believe they’ll battle each other into the latter frames, so in a game which will be decided late or in extras, I have absolutely no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; play on TORONTO run-line.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* MID-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT on the Cleveland Indians.

I played the Tribe on the run-line yesterday (-1.5 -120) and I think they offer a lot of value on the R.L. again today, this time laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Cleveland comes into this game with some momentum, it swept yesterday’s double-header with the Twins easily; the Indians also come into this game with revenge on the mind (also a possible playoff spot!). "Heading to Detroit, you want to be on a high note. We have three big games ahead of us. You want to make sure you win them all," Cleveland pitcher T.J. House explained last night. "I'm excited with where we're headed. We have a good ballclub and we're (going) in the right direction." Cleveland though has been outscored 32-15 in dropping four of its last five vs. the Tigers. Detroit had been rolling merrily along until Wednesday when it lost for the first time in its last four games in listless 3-0 setback to the Royals. So here’s a huge opportunity for Cleveland to make a move, in fact I would call this a season defining series for the visitors who sit just 3.5 games back of the home side in the playoff race. Detroit turns to David Price (13-11, 3.33 ERA) who has been horrible of late, he’s 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA in seven starts since coming over from Tampa Bay. Price in fact owns a ghastly 7.13 ERA over his last three outings after getting shelled for five runs in his team’s 5-4 loss to San Francisco on Saturday. Note that Price was also lit up for eight runs off 12 hits over just two innings in an 8-4 loss to the Yanks on August 27th. The only time he’s looked any good of late was on September 1st vs. the Indians, giving up one run and stirking out eight over seven innings in a 12-1 win. So which Price is going to show up today? I’m inclined to believe it will be the struggling one, Cleveland comes in focused and I think can really take advantage here. The visitors also have to be feeling pretty good about their chances in sending the red hot Carlos Carrasco to the hill, who is 4-0 over his last six starts, posting a miniscule 0.70 ERA in that span. Most recently Carrasco struck out eight and came within a single out of recoridng his first shutout in his team’s 2-0 win over the White Sox on Sunday. Carrasco comes in having had success vs. Detroit this season, while he allowed a season-worst 10 hits against the Tigers at the beginning of the month, he managed to work around any damage and would yield just one run while striking out a career-high ten over 5 1/3’s innings. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Detroit after it suffered its first loss in over a week; conversely, the Indians come in filled with confidence and vengeance on their minds. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a contest which could be decided late or in extras, I’ll gladly lay the price for the runs; play on DETROIT on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cleveland Indians.

I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Cleveland’s playoff chances are dwindling after a sluggisth stretch, but I think the home side finds a way to win convincingly today. The Tribe would lose 4-3 in Tuesday’s opener, yesterday’s game was postponed due to rain. Note that Cleveland actually outhit the Twins 9-5 in Tuesday’s setback, but was just 1 of 10 with runners in scoring position. The home side now turns to ace Corey Kluber (14-9, 2.47 ERA) who gave up five hits and one unearned run in a 3-1 victory over the White Sox on Saturday; while he was 0-3 over his previous four starts, note that the hard-throwing right-hander had posted a very respectable 3.42 ERA during that stretch, but received just five total runs of support. The visitors counter with Kyle Gibson who is 1-2 with a ballooned 5.45 ERA over his last six starts which included a 7-5 setback to Cleveland on August 19th; he’d give up five runs over 5 1/3’s innings. Gibson comes in with zero momentum as well, he’d give up four runs over seven frames in a 5-4 loss to the Angels on Thursday. A superior starter and a ton of motivational factors equal a RUN LINE play on the INDIANS in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds.

I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on a strategic “run line” selection and believe that the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The struggling home side turns to ace Johnny Cueto (15-7, 2.20 ERA) to get it back on track; Cueto (15-7, 2.20 ERA) will be hungry here, he had his five-start win streak snapped in his team’s 7-3 loss at St. Louis last week, the hard-throwing right-hander was shelled for five runs off a season high-tying seven hits over just five innings of work. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered for Cueto to get untracked though, he’s posted a very respectable 1.74 ERA over a six-start win streak in Cincinnati. And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, note that Cueto has dominated the Cubbies throughout his career in going a perfect 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last seven vs. them. Cueto’s team will be looking to build off its 10 hit peformance in Sunday’s 5-3 win over Atlanta on Sunday, which is bad news for inconsistent Chicago starter Travis Wood (7-11, 4.91 ERA); Wood has been the very definition of a “gas can” of late, in his last 12 starts he’s 0-6 with a ballooned 5.45 ERA. And unforutnatley for Wood, he can’t be looking forward to seeing Cincinnati, he’s 1-5 with a pedestrian 3.68 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Cubs are one of the worst on the road they’re just 26-39 away from friendly confines, while of course the Reds for the most part have been successful in front of the home town crowd in 2014, coming into this contest at 34-31 in Cincinnati. I think Chicago comes in complacent, it’s coming off a very satisfying three game sweep at home over the Orioles, while the Reds are fighting for their playoff lives; play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Seattle Mariners.

As a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games that I’m constantly looking to take advantage of, for a number of different reasons I feel that the home side is well worth laying the 1.5 runs for the small return in this particular matchup. Toronto just took two of three from the Tigers at home, including yesterday’s 6-5, 19-inning win, the longest game in franchise history. Immediately following the game the weary club boarded a plane for the West Coast, where it must play a late PST game: game time is at 10:10 PST, which is 1:10 AM EST. This is simply a horrible spot for Toronto and a beautiful one for Felix Hernandez (12-3, 1.97 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners. Hernandez is on fire, he’s gone 15 straight starts of at least seven innings or more with two runs or fewer; note that Hernandez is 8-2 with a 1.42 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and .168 opponents’ batting average in that span. Most recently Hernandez beat the Braves 4-2, giving up a run and four hits while striking out eight over eight frames. While Hernandez has struggled against the Jays in the past, I think that only adds fire and motivation for tonight’s game. It all falls on Toronto starter Drew Hutchinson (8-9, 4.39 ERA) who will have pressure to throw into the latter frames as his bullpen is drained after last night’s marathon. As good as “Hutch” has been, I’m giving Hernandez the big nod on the mound and the M’s the big advantage at the plate, those two deciding factors make the sharp play in this matchup the home side on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers.

While Justin Verlander has endured some highs and lows this year, I believe he holds a significant advantage over his counterpart today and that the talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. After pulling off a major trade to acquire David Price from the Rays, Verlander (9-9, 4.79 ERA) will certainly be motivated today; note that Verlander was decent in a 4-0 loss to the Angels on Saturday, giving up three runs over seven innings of work. However, if history is any precedence, then the home side is indeed loving its chances today as Verlander is a spectacular 24-2 with a very respectable 2.75 ERA in 31 career interleague starts (which includes winning all three that he’s been a part of this year). He’s been even better when throwing at home vs. the Senior Circuit, a perfect 14-0 with a tiny 2.14 ERA in 15 home starts vs. the NL. And that of course is bad news for a Rockies team which has lost six-straight interleague road games and 18 of its last 22 such situations overall. Colorado has in fact lost 15 of its last 17 on the road and 29 of its last 39 overall after yesterday’s lacklustre 3-1 setback to the soft-hitting Cubbies. To add insult to injury, top sluggers Michael Cuddyer and Troy Tulowitzki are both injured right now. The visitors counter with Franklin Morales (5-5, 5.18 ERA) who is 1-1 with a 3.05 ERA in four starts since returning to the rotation; take note though that there is some room to read between the lines as Morales has struggled with his control by walking 14 in 20 2/3’s innings of work, matching a career high with five walks in a 7-5 loss to the Pirates on Sunday. Detroit enters this series with renewed confidence after its big acquisition, I think Verlander answers the call and that the value in this game is clearly the Tigers on the RUN-LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta has looked pretty pedestrian of late, but I look for it to bounce back here with a convincing effort with what I believe to be the clearly superior starter back it tonight. The Braves turn to Julio Teheran (9-6, 2.64 ERA), who has fallen on a bit of hardluck of late by being supported with two runs or fewer in 11 of his 21 starts, going 1-5 despite a very respectable 2.82 ERA in those outings. Most recently Teheran would match a seaon high with 11 K’s and give up just one run over seven innings of work in an unfortunate 3-1, 10 inning loss to Miami on Monday. A little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered for Teheran though where he enters 3-1 with a minuscule 1.23 ERA in 10 starts, including a perfect 3-0 with an almost non-existent 0.80 mark over his last six. The visitors counter with Odrisamer Despaigne (2-1, 1.31 ERA) who has been sharp so far, most recently he’d fall four outs shy of becoming the first Padre to toss a no-hitter in his team’s eventual 3-1 win over the Mets on Sunday. The book is still definitely out on Despainge though in my opinion, the sample size is way too small and I think the youngster is going ot have his hands full with this clearly under-achieving home side. The Friars have been swinging a better bat of late, but I think the writing is on the wall today as this, in my opinion, clearly sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors; all signs point to a blowout, BRAVES on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* RUN-LINE DETRUCTION on the Baltimore Orioles.

While Jered Weaver has been much better over the last couple of months, beleagured Orioles pitcher Chris Tillman has quietly been improving himself, and while I do feel that the outright win is obviouly not out of the question here, I will in the end recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Baltimore is surging, it has a major league-best 122 home runs and has posted back-to-back 4-2 victories over the Angels. Weaver (10-6, 3.43 ERA) has gone 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA over his last six outings, most recently giving up two runs over six frames in Friday’s 3-2, 16-inning home win over the M’s. The visitors counter with Tillman (7-5, 4.03 ERA) who despite owning a 4.96 ERA in 12 road starts this year, is 6-0 in that span; note that he’s been much better of late, giving up just four runs over his last 20 2/3’s innings of work. And note that Tillman is 2-0 with a very respectable 1.84 ERA in two career starts vs. LA. And that’s bad news for an Angels side which has totaled just 12 runs and hit a meager .184 with runners in scoring position while dropping three of thier last four. A big opportunity here for the O’s, play on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Chicago White Sox.

Both teams are coming off losses, but I believe the clear talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the decent return on investment. The Royals have fallen below .500 for the first time since early June as their offense has struggled, scoring just five runs in three losses at Boston over the weekend. The home side will be pleny motivated here as well after the Royals swept them at US Cellular earlier in the season and it has to also be liking its chances in sending ace Chris Sale (8-1, 2.08 ERA) to the hill; Sale is 2-0 with a 1.52 ERA over his last three starts which included allowing one run over 7 2/3’s innings in his team’s 5-4 loss at Boston in his last outing. Note that the hard-throwing southpaw will be pitching on 11 days rest and that he’s 2-0 with a very respectable 2.03 ERA with 18 K’s in 13 1/3’s innings when getting at least six days rest between starts. The visitors counter with Jeremy Guthrie (5-8, 4.56 ERA) who has been shelled in his last two starts, going just four frames in each; most recently he gave up eight runs in a 16-4 loss to Detroit. While Guthrie has enjoyed some success against the White Sox in the past, there’s no question that he’s struggling right now and “recent performance” is always a key factor that I look at when making a wager of this type; I like Chicago to bounce back from last night’s defeat and to cover the spread on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Milwaukee Brewers.

Despite facing one of the best pitchers in the league, I think the Brewers keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak away with the cover on the RUN-LINE. The visitors send Adam Wainwright (11-4, 1.79 ERA) to the hill; Wainwright has been nasty of late, he’s 3-1 with a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts. Note that while he’s 9-6 with a 2.25 ERA in 19 career starts against the Brewers, he’s 0-2 with a pedestrian 4.50 ERA in his last three at Miller Park. The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who has recalled from Triple-A on Thursday to replace Marco Estrada; Nelson went 5 2/3 scoreless innings in a 7-1 victory at Miami on May 25th to earn his first major league win. This is an important game for Milwaukee, it’s in a tight race with the Cardinals and it will be trying desperately to break a six-game slide, it hasn’t lost seven-straight in nearly two years. I believe the focus and determination the home side brings could very well see it win this one straight up, but in a contest which will likely once again be decided late or in extras, I definitely don’t have any problems laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Houston Astros.

LA has taken the first two games of this four-game set, but with what I believe to be the superior starter backing them today, look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; in a contest which I think will be decided late or in extras, I have no issues at all laying what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The home side sends Hector Santiago (0-7, 4.08 ERA) to the hill; Santiago has a 2.30 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Salt Lake, but he’s 0-1 while getting only six total runs of support in those outings. Unfortunately a start vs. the lowly, but hungry Astros is not likely not what the doctor would order for him to get untracked as he’s 0-1 with a ballooned 5.19 ERA in three appearances, including one start vs. them. Houston counters with Scott Feldman (4-5, 3.92 ERA) who is 1-1 with a repsectable 3.47 ERA over his last four starts. Most recently Feldman gave up two runs while scatting seven hits over six frames in a 6-4 win over Detroit on Sunday. While he’s struggled at times vs. the Angels in the past, Feldman still gets the slight nod on the bump in this matchup in my opinion and I think Houston keeps this one competitive; play on Houston on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

I took the Nationals on the RUN-LINE in Game 1 of this series and they’d also dominate in Game 2; I feel Game 3 also sets up as another lop-sided destruction and that the clear talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The Nats are 11-3 with a 2.22 ERA in their last 14 home games and send ace Doug Fister (6-2, 2.83 ERA) to the hill; Fister missed the first five weeks of the season with an injury, but he’s gone on to post a fantastic 4-0, 1.93 ERA record in front of the home town crowd since his return. Fister is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA in his last three outings overall. In his only career start vs. the Rockies, Fister would toss six scoreless frames with six K’s in the 4-1 win while with Detroit in 2012. The visitors counter with Tyler Matzek (1-2. 4.24 ERA), who after winning his debut has been downright awful in going 0-2 with a ballooned 4.96 ERA in three starts since. I have a hard time seeing the Rockies mustering much of an offensive attack and look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas and bury this team early; the value in this game is clearly the home side on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return here. Good news for Nats fans (and us!), is the expected return of slugger Bryce Harper to the Washington lineup. Harper has recovered from a broken left thumb by hitting three home runs in a rehab game at Double-A Harrisburg on Saturday, the all-star sat out Sunday, which is signalling his return to action tonight. The home side sends Jordan Zimmermann (5-4, 2.95 ERA) to the mound; Zimmermann is 2-2 with a minuscule 1.18 ERA in five outings this month, most recently giving up two runs, while striking out nine over six innings in his latest outing on Tuesday in Milwaukee. The Nationals come in with plenty of momentum as well after sweeping a Saturday doubleheader vs. the Cubbies and also come in rested after having Sunday off. Note that Zimmermann is 4-0 with a very respectable 1.42 ERA in six career starts vs. Colorado, including 2-0 with a minute 0.42 record in three matchups in front of the home town crowd. The Rockies come to town having won just twice in their last 13 games, but off a 10-4 victory over Milwaukee last night; suffice it to say, I expect an immediate return to mediocrity this evening. The visitors counter with Yohan Flande (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who will make his second major league start; note that Flande gave up four runs, six hits and a walk over five frames in a 9-6 loss to the Cards on Wednesday. A plehtora of different factors have collided, making the Nationals on the RUN-LINE the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Seattle Mariners.

The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. Seattle will be eager to get untracked after yesterday’s listless 5-0 loss to the Indians in which Kyle Seager managed only a single. Note though that the M’s had totaled 27 runs while hitting .314 with eight home runs over their previous four games. Seattle has to be liking its chances for a bounce back by sending ace Felix Hernandez (9-2, 2.24 ERA) to the hill; Hernandez has gone 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his last eight starts and has set a franchise record over that stretch for consecutive starts of at least seven frames while giving up two earned runs or less. It comes as no surprise to learn that Hernandez ranks among the league’s leaders in several categories, including ERA, strikeouts, and innings. Most recently “The King” gave up two runs and six hits over seven innings in his team’s 12-3 win over Boston on Monday. Note that Hernandez is 6-5 with a respectable 3.25 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Tribe, but he’s 3-0 with a tiny 1.47 ERA in five meetings vs. them at Safeco. The visitors counter with TJ House (0-1, 4.88 ERA) who is filling in for Justin Masterson; this will be House’s first MLB appearance since June 14th when he gave up two runs over 5 1/3’s innings, not factoring into a 3-2 win at Boston. House is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his five starts. The combination of looking to atone for yesterday’s poor overall effort and having Hernandez on the hill makes the value play the Mariners on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -160

The LA Angels have won six-straight at home, but I think will stumble here in the opener of this three-game set in Kansas City; in a contest that I feel will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors send rookie Matt Shoemaker (5-1, 3.42 ERA) to the hill; Shoemaker is 5-0 with a 3.00 ERA in seven starts, giving up one run in 7 2/3’s innings in a 5-2 win over Texas on Sunday. The book is still out on Shoemaker though in my opinion, the sample size is still small and there’s no question that he’s going to have a much tougher time on the road vs. the hard-hitting Royals; note that Shoemaker faced KC on May 24th and would give up three runs over five innings in a 7-4 defeat. After dominating to start June, the Royals have come back down to Earth, they fell for the sixth time in seven games in a 5-4 loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. KC will counter with Jason Vargas (7-3, 3.16 ERA) who faced the Angels on May 25th, receiving a no-decision in giving up one run and three hits while walking five over 6 1/3’s innings of a 4-3 loss. Vargas has now gone 3-1 with a very respectable 2.27 ERA over his last six starts. To say the “revenge factor” comes into play here would be an understatement, LA has won six of seven in this series and five in a row at Kaufmann Stadium. But I think that ends tonight, the Angels are overachieving, the Royals are under-performing, I expect the home side to keep this one close enough to at the very least escape with the RUN LINE cover.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the LA Dodgers.

The Dodgers are rolling and I believe can keep this one competitive enough to at the very least sneak away with the ATS cover. The home side sends James Sheilds (8-3, 3.70 ERA) to the mound; Sheilds is 5-0 since losing to Detroit on May 2nd, but there is some room to read between the lines as he’s posted a pedestrian 5.54 ERA in the process. Also note that he’s given up nine home runs over his last six starts. Most recently Shields gave up five runs and nine hits, including two homers, over seven frames in his team’s 7-5 setback to Seattle on Friday. But as mentioned off the top, LA is rolling and I think will continue that surge tonight as it’s won eight of its last 11. The visitors counter with Dan Haren (7-4, 3.62 ERA) who is 4-0 with a very respectable 2.45 ERA in seven starts at Kauffman Stadium. Haren is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA in his last three starts overall, most recently giving up three runs over 5 2/3’s innings vs. the Friars on Friday. Kansas City has come back down to Earth after its big 10-game win streak and I think will once again have its hands full vs. the highly competent Haren. Lay the price for the Dodgers on the RUN-LINE!

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE PUNISHER” on the Seattle Mariners.

While I do feel the outright win is definitely not out of the question here, in a contest which will likely be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Royals have now lost two straight after yesterday’s 7-5 setback to Seattle, in which slugger Robinson Cano got two hits and two RBIs; note that Cano is batting .419 with 15 RBIs during a 21-game road hitting streak. Kansas City is just 4 for 22 with runners in scoring position over its last three games and sends Jason Vargas (7-2, 3.25 ERA) to the hill today; Vargas has been sharp of late, he’s 3-0 with a respectable 2.31 ERA in his last five starts. The visitors counter with Chris Young (6-4, 3.40 ERA) who bounced back from a couple of tough starts to throw six shutout innings in a 5-1 win over the Padres on Monday. Young has enjoyed success vs. Kansas City; Vargas has enjoyed success vs. his former team as well. I like Young to duel his counterpart into the latter frames and definitely feel that the the value in this one is Seattle on the “run-line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Atlanta Braves.

I played the Braves yesterday and unforutnately Julio Teheran was unable to deliver the goods. I think the visitors can bounce back today though and am expecting a convincing effort. Atlanta sends Ervin Santana (5-2, 3.69 ERA) to the hill; Santana started the season strong, fell off for a bit, but is coming off a resurgent outing, giving up one unearned run over seven innings, getting saddled with a no-decision when his team lost 4-3 in 11 innings in Arizona on Saturday. Santana is 2-0 with a 5.59 ERA in three career starts vs. Colorado. The Rockies haven’t won back to back games in over three weeks, they’ve lost 13 of 16 and have been hit hard by the injury bug. And that’s bad news for Jhoulys Chacin (0-4, 5.35 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings in his team’s eventual 5-4 win over the Dodgers in 10 frames in his last start. Note that Chacin has been particularly inept vs. Atlanta in three career starts, he’s 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. I like the Braves to bounce back in this matchup and will lay the 1.5 runs for the healthy return. Play on Atlanta “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Minnesota Twins.

I have no problem laying the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance here. Toronto was shut out for the third time in four games yesterday. The Jays have mustered just a .186 average, going 2 for 22 with runners in scoring position during the slide. The Jays send Marcus Stroman (3-0, 5.40 ERA) to the hill; Stroman has given up two runs with 13 K’s over 12 innings as a starter, but in my opinion the book is still out on the rookie hurler. Stroman would be wise to be wary of the Twins’ Brian Dozier who has homered on both of his hits in this series while driving in three scores; Dozier is 11 for 33 with three dingers, six RBIs and nine runs in his last nine games. The visitors counter with Phil Hughes (6-2, 3.46 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up season highs of five runs and three homers over six innings in Friday’s 5-4 loss to Houston. No need to hit the panic button though if your a Hughes fan, note that the veteran was 6-0 with a 1.99 ERA over his previous eight starts and he’s looked extremely adept on the road this season. Momentum is a funny thing, and I believe the Twins can carry over yesterday’s momentum and while I do feel the outright win isn’t out of the question, in a contest which will likely be decided late or in extras, I’m recommending playing Minnesota on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Miami Marlins.

While the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, in a game which I believe will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The injured home side sends struggling starter Colby Lewis (4-4, 5.77 ERA) to the hill; Lewis is 0-2 with a deplorable 10.43 ERA over his last three starts and is also 0-3 with a disgusting 12.83 ERA in his last three interleague outings. Lewis has given up at least five runs in three of his past four starts overall with an 8.44 ERA over his last two. The Fish counter with Tom Koehler (5-5, 3.33 ERA) who has won two straight on the road, most recently giving up three runs over five innings in a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Many of the Rangers’ sluggers are sitting with injury, this is a prime opportunity for Koehler and the Rangers to take advantage of; play on Miami on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay is in a huge hole in the AL East, but with its ace coming to the mound, I think the struggling Rays are going to win big in this favorable pitching match-up. Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez struck out 15 in yesterday’s 5-0 win. As good as they’ve been, both at the plate and on the mound, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Mariners, especially facing a determined David Price (4-5, 4.03 ERA) who is 1-0 with a very respectable 2.81 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Erasmo Ramirez (1-4, 6.82 ERA) who has been the very definition of a “gas can’ since returning from Triple-A Tacoma, most recently giving up five runs and eight hits over three innings in his team’s eventual 7-5 win in Atlanta (note that Ramirez is allowing opponents a .304 average). The clear talent discrepancy on the mound, coupled with the desperation that Tampa will be playing with, in my opinion abolustely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Atlanta Braves.

I feel the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return in this match-up. Julio Teheran (5-3, 1.83 ERA) has the third lowest ERA in all of baseball, his 83 2/3’s innings and impressive 0.93 WHIP are among the Senior Circuit’s leaders. Teheran has won three straight, giving up just two runs over his last 22 1/3’s frames of work, limiting his opposition to a paltry .185 batting average. Most recently Teheran gave up two runs over 7 1/3’s innings in a  3-2 win at Miami on Saturday; in his most recent start vs. the Diamondbacks back on June 28th he’d strike out 10 over six innings in a 3-0 win. The last place Diamondbacks are coming off a series sweep, but I think will regress here vs. Teheran; Arizona counters with Brandon McCarthy (1-7, 5.20 ERA). McCarthy is 0-4 with a horrible 5.36 ERA in seven home starts and is 0-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA in his last five overall. McCarthy has given up 10 runs and 18 hits over 11 innings spanning his last two starts. All signs point to a convincing Braves victory, lay the 1.5 runs.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Oakland Athletics.

The A’s won 5-2 in yesterday’s series opener and behind what I believe to be the superior starter on the mound, look for it win big once again today. The home side is struggling at the plate, just ten runs in its last five games and sends Vidal Nuno (1-2, 5.48 ERA) to the hill; Nuno gave up four runs over 6 2/3’s innings in Friday’s 6-1 loss to Minnesota. The visitors counter with Jesse Chavez (4-3, 2.78 ERA) who is looking to avoid a third straight start; Chavez has given up seven runs and 16 hits over 11 1/3’s innings over his last two but he’s been great on the road, going 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA away from friendly confines. This is a prime opportunity for Chavez and the A’s to take advantage of and I expect them to do just that; play on Oakland on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

While I do think that the Royals’ James Shields is the superior starter in this match-up and while I do believe the outright straight-up win isn’t out of the question, I feel a lot more comfortable laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest which is likely to be decided late or in extras. Shields (6-3, 3.36 ERA) has struggled a bit over his last two starts but now faces a Cardinals team which has struggled all year with consistency at the plate; I think this is a great bounce back spot for him. Note that Sheild sports a very respeactable 4-1, 3.06 ERA road record this year. Shields will be opposed by Jamie Garcia (1-0, 4.12 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings to the Giants in a no-decision on Thursday; the Cards would go on to lose 6-5. Garcia has looked decent since returning from injury, but the book is still out on him in my opinion, I think the Royals can definitely capitalize tonight. As stated off the top, this is a very winnable game for Shields, but playing in St. Louis is always a tough task. Lay the price for the 1.5 runs.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Chicago White Sox.

No need to overanalyze this one, in my opinion the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The home side turns to ace Chris Sale (4-0, 1.73 ERA) to help salvage the finale of this three game set. Sale is 19-10 with a very respectable 2.62 ERA in 35 career starts in front of the home town crowd and has allowed just one run and two hits in his last 16 innings there. The Friars are among the lowest-scoring teams in the league and I think they’ll return to mediocrity here vs. a pitcher of Sale’s caliber. Sale’s counterpart is Eric Stults (2-5, 4.92 ERA) who gave up three runs over six innings in his team’s 4-3 win over Arizona on Tuesday. A great situational play in my opinion, motivation combined with the superior starter adds up to a “run line” play on the White Sox.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the New York Yankees.

I like the Yanks to bounce back in a big way here after yesterday’s 7-1 setback. Note that New York had won four of its previous five coming into that contest; and note that Minnesota had dropped six of seven. An immediate return to mediocrity is imminent with Kevin Correia (2-6, 6.34 ERA) taking the mound for the visitors; Correia has been poor this year but has also been the victim of poor run support, receiving two or fewer in three of his last four trips to the hill. New York looks to get untracked against this confirmed gas can, and sends Masahiro Tanaka (7-1. 2.29 ERA) to the mound to counter; Tanaka is coming off a 7-1 win over the White Sox on Sunday, going 6 2/3’s innings, giving up one run and five hits while striking out six and walking two. Good new for us, the Yanks’ Kelly Johnson is expected back in the lineup and he has five home runs in 28 career at bats vs. Correia along with a .321 slugging percentage. New York also got back the services of first baseman Mark Texeira yesterday; Texeira is hitting .374 with 20 dingers and 58 RBIs in 66 career games vs. the Twins. Behind Tanaka, look for the home side to score early and often; play on New York on the “run line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Pittsburgh Pirates.

No need to overanalyze this one, this is a situation that I keep my eyes open for every season, and that is: I love playing against pitchers who are coming off of perfect games or no hitters and I especially love going against veteran pitchers in this situation. The Dodgers’ Josh Beckett (3-1, 2.43 ERA) is having a resurgent season and it all culminated in his last start, throwing a no-hitter in a 6-0 road win over the Phillies. Note that Beckett hasn’t won four-straight games since 2007. It’s been a whirl-wind for Beckett who will have to talk to the press a lot more over the last week and I expect him to come in distracted. Here’s a perfect opportunity for Pirates’ beleagured starter Francisco Liriano (0-5, 5.06 ERA) to take advantage of; Liriano has been pretty average to horrible this year, but the veteran has all the tools in place to turn things around. The Pirates looked pretty good in Thursday’s 6-3 series opening win; Pittsburgh has in fact won six of its last nine. Simply a great situation and while I do believe the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’m going to lay what I feel is a very reasonable price for an extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -155

I like the Tigers to bounce back after their tough 3-1 loss last night. Detroit has now lost eight of ten after Josh Donaldson hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the ninth yesterday. The visitors turn to Rick Porcello (7-2, 3.88 ERA) who is also coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up eight runs and a career high 12 hits along with two walks over just 5 1/3’s innings in a 12-2 loss to Texas on Saturday. So is it time to hit the panic button if you’re a Porcello fan?! Obviously not, note that Porcello was tied for the major league lead for wins while his 1.01 WHIP was tied for 10th previous to that dud. Detroit looks to break the slump vs. Jesse Chavez (4-2, 2.61 ERA) who gave up four runs over 5 1/3’s innings in a 5-2 loss to Toronto on Saturday. Chavez has been susceptible to giving up the long ball, he’s served up five dingers over his last three outings. That’s good news for us as Tigers’ slugger Miguel Cabrera is 3 for 5 with a home run off Chavez. Detroit is in desperation mode, I think Porcello bounces back with a big effort and in a game which will be decided late or in extras, I have no problem at all laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers sure are struggling, but I think they keep this one close enough to at the very least escape with the “run-line” victory. Detroit lost the opener 10-0 yesterday and has now dropped seven of its last eight, getting outscored 34-6 in the process. The visitors turn to Max Scherzer (6-1, 2.59 ERA) to stop the slide; Scherzer is coming off an outing to forget himself as he’d give up seven runs in the first three innings to go along with 12 hits, going seven innings in his team’s eventual 11-10, 13-inning loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. Here is the perfect venue for Scherzer to get untracked though, he’s 2-0 with a 1.82 ERA in his last four starts at Oakland. The home side counters with Sonny Gray (5-1, 1.99 ERA), who went eight frames in a 5-2, 11-inning loss at Tampa on Thursday. So while it won’t be easy, in a game which the starters should each go deep and where it’s decided late or in extras, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on Detroit on the “run-line”.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

These two teams are moving in opposite directions but I like the struggling visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to escape with a strategic run line victory. The bottom, MLB handicapping comes down to starting pitching and in this case, the oddsmakers have severely underestimated the Nats’ Doug Fister (1-1, 3.93 ERA); Fister will be gunning for a third straight awesome start. Fister gave up one run over seven innings vs. the D-Backs on May 14th and then would yield two runs over seven frames in his team’s eventual 9-4 win over the Reds on Tuesday. "It's a constant battle for me to keep the ball down -- keeping mainly the sinker down and moving," Fister said. "It's always something that I'm working on." Pittsburgh has been on a bit of a run of late, unfortunately, sending Francisco Liriano (0-4, 4.86 ERA) to the bump is not conducive to keeping this stretch of great play going. Liriano has not won in 2014 and is 0-2 with a ballooned 5.79 ERA at PNC park thus far; most recently he was obliterated by giving up a season high six runs on nine hits, including two home runs over five frames in his team’s 9-2 loss to the Orioles on Tuesday. I’m throwing out recent performance and focusing strictly on starting pitching, while the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, I’ll recommend laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals.

I played Washington yesterday and the Nationals would never be able to recover from an early deficit and would ultimately lose 5-2. I think behind the superior starter, the home side will win big this afternoon. New York is struggling and I think will make an immediate return to mediocrity, especially by sending Zack Wheeler (1-3, 4.53 ERA) to the hill; Wheeler is winless in his last five starts and pitched fewer than five innings in two of his last three outings. Most recently Wheeler gave up five runs while walking six over just 4 1/3’s innings of his team’s 12-7 loss to the Yankees on Tuesday. Wheeler has been exceptionally poor on the road this year, just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.26 ERA. Also note that Wheeler is just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.07 ERA in four starts vs. Washington. The Nats had won three of four prior to yesterday’s setback. The home side turns to Jordan Zimmermann (2-1, 3.59 ERA) to get it back on the winning track; Zimmermann is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off ten hits over 5 2/3’s innings in a no-decision vs. Arizona on Monday. Note though that Zimmermann had pitched 10 1/3’s scoreless innings over his previous two starts. While he’s just 2-3 vs. the Metropolitans, note the he owns a very respectable 2.64 ERA in ten starts vs. them. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the healthy return. Play on Washington on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

The Cardinals got destroyed 17-5 in Monday’s series opener vs. the Cubbies and suffice it to say, with what I believe to be one of top hurlers in all of baseball on the mound for it today, expect the home side to return the favor with a convincing wire-to-wire victory. Let’s not crown Chicago quite yet, remember that it had lost seven of eight, scoring three or fewer runs in six of its last seven previous to yesterday’s abnormal offensive outburst. Enter Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.02 ERA) to exact some revenge; Wainwright has had issues vs. the Cubs this year, giving up 10 runs over 12 innings in splitting two match-ups, but has posted an almost non-existent 0.59 ERA in his other six starts. Wainwright comes in with momentum, he held Atlanta to a run and six hits over eight innings in a 7-1 win. The Cardinals line-up will look to bounce back today against the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits over four innings in his team’s eventual 12-5 win over the White Sox on Thursday. No need to overanalyze this pick, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on St. Louis on the RUN LINE.

AAA Sports

This is a 7* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE SITUATIONAL CHOKE-OUT” on the Boston Red Sox.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -160

Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5 -180

The Rangers looked rattled in losing three of four to Colorado and I expect the Red Sox to give them everything they can handle once again today. Texas’ starting pitching would allow a combined 18 runs off 31 hits over 14 innings to the Rockies. However, the Rangers would also struggle at the plate, leaving 23 base-runners on board while scoring just five times. Yesterday’s 5-0 win was just the thid victory in the last ten games for Texas. Obviously the Rangers are feeling pretty good that things could turn around by sending their ace Yu Darvish (2-1, 2.87 ERA) to the mound. Davish most recently went 6 1/3’s innings, giving up three runs with nine K’s to earn his first victory since the start of the season in his team’s 14-3 beatdown of the Angels on Sunday. Note that Darvish has struggled against the Red Sox in two career starts, 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA. Boston comes in with momentum, it took two of three from the A’s and then swept a two-game series vs. the Reds and with a victory today would move above .500 for the first time since the start of the year. Boston has to be liking its chances as well today by sending Clay Buchholz (2-2, 5.63) to the hill; Buchholz has started to perform better after a brutal start, he’s won two in a row, giving up four runs off nine hits over his last 13 1/3’s innings of work. The last time Buchholz faced the Rangers he held Texas to a run and four hits over seven frames in his team’s 2-1 win in Arlington back on July 24th, 2012. I think these two starters battle into the latter frames and in a game which could easily see extras, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Miami Marlins.

The Fish are dominating at home now and I like for them to build off yesterday’s 4-3 win vs. the Mets’ suspect starter this evening. Miami is hitting .271 to rank third in the league; its 33 dingers and 153 runs scored is also amongst the best in MLB. The Marlins are 15-5 at home and have posted a .305 batting average there while hitting 21 homers and 121 runs overall, good enough for second in the majors. The Marlins’ starting pitching has dominated the Mets this year, posting a very respectable 2.84 ERA while holding New York to a tiny .224 average. The home side sends Henderson Alvarez (1-2, 3.28 ERA) to the mound to try and improve upon his spectacular 2-0 record to go along with his minuscule 1.77 ERA over his last three starts vs. the Mets. And that’s bad news for New York as it’s dropped four of five and will send over the hill Bartolo Colon (2-4, 5.65 ERA) to the bump; Colon has been the very definition of a “gas can” this year, he’s lost three of four outings while posting a ballooned 7.61 ERA in the process (and note that the veteran has given up a National League worst tying seven home runs). I think the writing is on the wall and am expecting Alvarez to dominate his counterpart and for the Fish to feast on Colon’s weak stuff; play on the Marlins on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “SITUATIONAL RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.

AAA Sports Has: -1.5 -130

Worst Case Scenario Line: -1.5 -147

Max Scherzer (3-1, 2.08 ERA) and the Tigers will look to take advantage of this favorable match-up and jump on Jarred Cosart (1-2, 5.52 ERA) and the Astros early and often; when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one I look for the home side to pull away for a convincing victory. Scherzer is looking for a fourth straight win, and Detroit is looking to win a sixth straight after returning home from a 6-1 road trip. Scherzer has been particularly sharp of late, he’s posted a 1.42 ERA while striking out 26 over 19 innings of work during his win streak, most recently giving up four hits over six scoreless frames in his team’s 5-1 win over the White Sox on Sunday (note that Scherzer was 1-0 with a very respectable 3.60 ERA in two match-ups vs. the Astros last season). Cosart has posted a ballooned 6.58 ERA over his five-start winless streak, and while he’s looked decently of late, note that Cosart has a brutal 7.71 ERA on the road. Houston comes in with zero momentum, it lost its fourth in its last five in yesterday’s 8-7 setback to Seattle. And that spells doom for the Astros today as Detroit is now rolling at the plate after a slow start to the season, inparticular slugger Miguel Cabrera who is hitting .386 with a home run and 12 RBIs during a 10-game hitting streak (also note that Cabrera feasted on Astros’ pitching last year going 11 for 29 with three home runs and eight RBIs as the Tigers would take six of seven from them). Underdog bettors have been cleaning up to start the year, but I’m not expecting any upsets in this one. Play on Detroit on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

The Tigers’ Justin Verlander has struggled in Kauffman Stadium throughout his career and I believe this is an opportunity we can exploit with a strategic “run line” wager on an equally capable starter for the home side. The Royals will be eager to atone for yesterday’s 9-2 setback and take advantage of the fact that Verlander (3-1, 2.48 ERA) is 0-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA in four starts in Kansas City. Also note that Verlander didn’t look overly spectacular at home on opening day facing the Royals, giving up three runs ovr six frames, receiving a no-decision in his team’s eventual 4-3 victory. I think this is a golden opportunity for the home side’s starting line-up to get untracked. And as good as Detroit has been seeing the ball of late, it’s about to run into a determined starter in Jason Vargas (2-0, 2.40 ERA), who is actually coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs and ten hits over 6 1/3’s innings while not factoring into his team’s eventual 10-7 win over Toronto on Tuesday; all signs point to Vargas returning to form, he had a 1.54 ERA through five starts previous to that dud (and note that he allowed just one run over seven frames in a 2-1, 10-inning loss to Detroit on April 2nd). A hungry home side with an extra 1.5 runs, I have no problem laying the price for that. Play on Kansas City on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Boston Red Sox.

I think these starting pitchers are a wash as far as execution right now, but give the slight nod to John Lackey (4-2, 3.82 ERA) because of the home field advantage and the hotter line-up backing him. If history is any precedence, then Lackey has to be loving his chances for a third-straight win for the first time in nearly three years as he’s 19-6 with an extremely respectable 2.90 ERA in 34 career starts vs. the A’s. Lackey most recently went eight innings and allowed two runs in his team’s 7-4 win over Tampa Bay on Tuesday. It obviously won’t be a cake walk though, as mentioned off the top runs will likely be at a premium here as the visitors counter with Sonny Gray (4-1, 1.76 ERA) who struck out six in his first complete game in his team’s 4-0 win at Texas on Monday; I’ve always thought that the next game following a performance of that magnitude sets up as a natural let down spot, and certainly Gray will have his hands full with the defending champions who have finally woken up at the plate, using grand slams to help secure each of the first two games of this series. The A’s on the other hand looked pretty anemic yesterday, they managed just a single hit through eight innings while striking out 15 times (Oakland would score three in the ninth). However, the numbers don’t lie, Oakland is hitting just .145 with 24 K’s in this series. More bad new for A’s backers today, Shane Victorino is expected to return to the line-up today for the home side after he was rested yesterday; Victorino is 9 for 31 in seven games since returning from injury. I think both starters go deep and in a game which will be decided late or in extras, I definitely feel that the value in this particular match-up is to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on Boston on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the New York Yankees.

Tampa has won four straight, but I look for it to finally stumble here vs. Yankees’ rookie Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA so far this year, he’s given up a total of nine runs while limiting his opposition to a .205 batting average over his first 35 2/3’s innings in the big leagues (note that Tanaka also has 46 K’s as well). Most recently Tanaka gave up two runs off five hits over 6 1/3’s innings, not factoring into his team’s eventual 3-2 home win over the Angels; he did however finish with a season-best 11 strikeouts. The Yanks come in motivated, they’ve now lost three straight, including yesterday’s 10-5, 14-inning setback to Tampa. A date vs. Jake Odorizzi (1-3, 6.85 ERA) is just what the doctor ordered for the home side to get untracked; Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 9.17 ERA over his last four starts, giving up four runs off eight hits over 4 1/3’s innings in a 7-3 road loss to the White Sox on Monday. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolute justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on New York on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals.

No need to overanalyze this one, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the return in my opinion. Jason Vargas (2-0, 1.54 ERA) gets the call for the home side; Vargas is looking to open 3-0 as a starter for the first time in his career, he’s allowed just two earned runs or fewer in each of his first five outings. So far the southpaw is holding his opposition to a .214 average (note that Vargas has walked just eight in 35 innings). Most recently Vargas gave up three runs over six innings in his teams 5-3 loss at Cleveland. The Jays counter with Dustin McGowan (1-1, 6.88 ERA) who earned his first win since 2008 in a 2-0 win at Baltimore on April 11, but who has since gone on to allow 13 runs over his other three starts spanning just 10 2/3’s innings of work. Most recently McGowan gave up six runs over four-plus innings in Wednesday’s 10-8 loss to the Orioles. Let’s not read too much into the Jays 7-1 win over Boston on Sunday, they’d lost four straight previous to that. The Royals return to Kansas City after taking two of three from the Orioles, Omar Infante had a career high six RBIs in Sunday’s 9-3 win. I like Vargas to go deep and expect McGowan to get chased early. Play the Royals on the RUN LINE for the healthy plus-money return.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN LINE DESTRUCTION” on the San Francisco Giants.

San Francisco was horrible in interleague action last year. This is its first game vs. a team from the American League this season and I expect Tim Hudson and company to take advantage of a favorable match-up on the mound. The Giants are swinging a hot bat and I believe that continues today. Most recently San Francisco is coming off a 12-10, 11-inning victory at Colorado on Wednesday in which it homered a season-high six times. And that’s bad news for the Indians’ Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 7.31 ERA), who is 0-11 with a ghastly 8.25 ERA in 16 starts since he last won in 2011. Hudson (2-1, 2.40 ERA) is having a resurgent start and gave up two runs over seven innings in a 3-1 setback to the Friars on Saturday. San Francisco has won five of nine match-ups vs. the Tribe in interleague action, and with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, who is backed by an incredibly hot offense right now, look for this strong trend to continue here; lay the 1.5 runs for the big return in a game which will prove to be a never in double laugher. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.

The home side sends its ace to the mound to even this series; suffice it to say, when the dust does finally settle at the end of this one, I look for the Tigers to have pulled away for a decisive victory. If history is any precedence, then Max Scherzer and the Tigers are loving their chances as the reigning Cy Young winner has won three straight over Chicago in front of the home town crowd. Detroit will be eager to atone for yesterday’s setback as Chicago would hit a grand slam in the seventh to secure the 6-4 win. I believe the hard-hitting White Sox finally get shut down here though; Scherzer has been dominant in the series, he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.05 ERA in his last seven starts vs. the White Sox at Comerica Park, giving up only six runs over 51 2/3’s innings in that span. Most recently Scherzer allowed one run and three hits over seven innings in his team’s 5-2 win vs. the Angels on Saturday. The visitors counter with Jose Quintana who gave up five runs off nine hits while striking out one over five innings in his team’s 6-3 setback at Texas. No need to overanalyze this one, I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the Tigers run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 9* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Miami Marlins.

After sweeping the Seattle Mariners, I look for Tom Koehler and the Miami Marlins to at give the home side everything it can handle tonight. Miami will have its hands full with the Braves’ Julio Teheran who is coming off a 1-0, three hit victory. Note that it was his first complete game of his 38 career start. Koehler has been just as hot, he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA, most recently giving up one hit while walking five over seven scoreless frames in his team’s 11-2 win over Washington on Tuesday. Koehler last gave up more than two runs back on September 10th. So while the Braves enjoyed considerable success vs. Miami pitching last year, there’s no question that they’ve struggled at the plate at times this year. I feel that Koehler is getting little respect from the oddsmakers and actually believe these starters are a wash; in game that is likely to be decided late or in extras, I’m going to pay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Marlins on the run line.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Chicago White Sox.

AAA Sports Has: +1.5 -125

Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5 -137

Chicago pitcher John Danks has struggled against the Tigers, he lost all three outings in 2013 and has actually dropped his last five in Detroit heading into Monday night’s opener. However, that was then, and this is now. Danks has looked much better of late and I fully expect him and the hard-hitting White Sox to give Anibel Sanchez and the Tigers everything they can handle tonight. Most recently Danks gave up one run over six frames in his team’s 6-4, 14-inning loss to Boston on Wednesday. The Tigers are coming off a 2-1 win over the Angels yesterday; Detroit has struggled at the plate of late, especially its biggest hitters. Miguel Cabrera was 0-3 yesterday and would finish the series 1 for 11 with four K’s; the reigning two-time AL MVP is just 8 for 47 in his last 12 games. Also note that he’s 0 for 9 vs. southpaws this year which plays into our hands here as Danks is a leftie. Sanchez has yet to last past the fifth inning this season, going five and giving up three in a 3-2 loss to Cleveland in his most recent start Wednesday. Sanchez will face a White Sox lineup which is coming off a big 16-2 win at Texas yesterday. A hot starter combined with a hot line-up; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll recommend paying the short price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the LA Dodgers.

AAA Sports Has: -1.5 +115

Worst Case Scenario Line: -1.5 -115

Arizona almost blew a late lead, but would recover to win in extras last night, snapping a six-game losing streak in their 4-2 12-inning victory at Chavez Ravine. The home side can empathize now, it’s lost three of its last four. However, I look for the LA’s sputtering offense to get back on track here vs. Diamondbacks rookie starter Mike Bolsinger. Bolsinger will be in tough here as his team has produced just nine runs and batted a brutal .197 over its last four games. Arizona is also hitting just .190 with runners in scoring position this year. Bolsinger made his first big-league appearance on Monday and gave up two runs off six hits over three innings of relief in his team’s 7-3 loss to the Mets. The Dodgers counter with Dan Haren who is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA; Haren has given up two runs over 12 frames over his first two starts. Note that Haren is 2-1 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona. I feel the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the plus-money return. Play on the Dodgers run line.

AAA Sports

This is a 5* “BIG-CHALK RUN-LINE CHOKE-OUT” on the St. Louis Cardinals.

I’ve played St. Louis on the run-line each of the last two games and have not even needed the extra runs. I think tonight’s contest will be the most competitive of them all though and will once again pay the price for the insurance. St. Louis has been getting the job done with superb starting pitching and with some timely hitting and has to be feeling pretty good about its chances once again today by sending Joe Kelly to the mound. Kelly has been “lights out” to start the year and there’s no reason to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t carry that over here; Kelly gave up one run in 5 1/3’s innings in his team’s 6-1 win over Pittsburgh on April 5th, before allowing just an unearned run over six frames in the Cards 6-3, 11-inning loss to the Cubs on Friday: “I had my two pitches working for me -- fastball, curveball," Kelly said after the unfortunate no-decision. "I kind of got a feel for my change there at the end and didn't have any walks, so that's always a plus." As stated above, this won’t be easy, Milwaukee sends Wily Peralta to the hill to try and get his team untracked; in his last start Peralta gave up two runs and four hits over seven innings in his team’s 4-2 win over the Pirates (note though that Peralta was just 1-3 with a ballooned 7.71 ERA in four starts vs. the Cards last year). All signs point to this one being decided late or in extras, so I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs.

AAA Sports