This is an 8* on PHOENIX

We’re all out of answers when it comes to the question of “how” the Hornets are in 4th place in the East. Picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, Charlotte has won three straight to get to 23-21. They’ve beaten San Antonio, Houston and Miami during the win streak, but now things get much harder when Phoenix comes to town. The Suns have been great this year. They are second in the West, ahead of the Clippers and Lakers, and have lost only three times in the last month while winning 10. We really like the Suns to “stick it” to the Hornets this afternoon. Even though they didn’t make a basket in the final 3:50 Friday, Phoenix still was able to win vs. Toronto. Remember that Charlotte doesn’t have LaMelo Bell (injured), which is a huge loss. It’s unlikely Malik Monk is going to offer a repeat of his 32-point performance we saw Friday vs. Miami. The Hornets are just 7-13 SU/ATS vs. .500 or better teams. The Suns are 15-4 SU/ATS. Play on PHOENIX

This is an 8* on LA CLIPPERS

The Sixers lead the Eastern Conference with a 32-13 overall record, however both the Nets and Bucks are hot on their heels (within 2.5 games). The Clippers’ 30-16 overall record has them third in the Western Conference and four games back of first place Utah. Both teams come into Saturday having won four in a row. After a furious rally to beat Atlanta to start the week, LA swept two games in San Antonio, first using an awesome offensive display (scored 134 in the first game) then an awesome defensive display (allowed 85 in the second game). That makes it three double digit wins in the last four games. Philly has been fortunate to face Golden State (no Curry) and the Lakers (no LeBron or Anthony Davis) on their current road trip. They are still without Joel Embiid. The Clippers may not have Kawhi Leonard tonight, but we still like them at home. They ended up not having Leonard when we took them Thursday in San Antonio. Paul George showed he can carry the load as he had 24 points and 13 rebounds. The Sixers are a dominant home team, but only 13-9 on the road and that’s with three straight wins. Play on LA CLIPPERS.

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has looked good of late in winning 14 of their last 19 contests. We had them Wednesday as they took out Minnesota 128-108. That was an easy cover as 8.5-point favorites and this should be as well as the Mavs are laying a short number at home to Indiana. The Pacers have struggled recently, losing 9 of 14 and they are an ugly 3-10-1 ATS in those games. They did beat Detroit 116-111 on Wednesday, but that is not something to brag about. They failed to cover the 7.5 point spread in that one. It’s difficult to see the Pacers keeping up with the Mavs tonight. Dallas has scored 260 points in its last two games. They are one blown lead in Portland away from coming into this game on a four-game win streak. Kristaps Porzingis looked dominant vs. the Timberwolves and Luka Doncic had another triple double. Indiana has covered only 3 of the last 14 times it’s been an underdog. Dallas is 5-1 ATS its last six home games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on LAC

The Clippers have strung together three straight victories, the last one coming last night here at the Alamo. They crushed the Spurs 134-101, a game in which they never trailed and were up 12 after the first quarter. It was LA’s 11th win of the season by 20 points or more. With the Lakers reeling right now, there is no excuse for the Clippers to finish any worse than third in the Western Conference and on paper, you’d probably like them over the top two teams (Utah, Phoenix) come playoff time. The Spurs are headed in the opposite direction as last night was their third straight loss. A 24-hour turnaround isn’t going to allow for them to make things much better tonight. Making things even worse is the fact the Clippers are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in the second night of a back to back. They’ve won those seven games this season by an average of 16.4 points per game. Six Clippers scored at least 13 points in last night’s win and the team shot 55% overall. We see no reason why this shouldn’t be another easy win for the road team. Play on LA CLIPPERS

This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has been inconsistent this year, but they have what we consider “a favorable stretch” over the next week or so. A 40-point win in Portland on Sunday showed what the Mavs are capable of doing. They should have won twice in Portland over the weekend, but blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead on Friday and lost 125-119. Had they held on there, they’d be on a three-game win streak coming into this game at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bad. They have the worst straight up record in the league at 10-33. They’ve lost two in a row and 13 of 16. Karl-Anthony Towns being bothered by a wrist injury doesn’t help matters. Nor does facing Dallas, who is 28-14 ATS at Minnesota their previous 42 visits. The Mavericks are 13-5 overall since Feb 6th with Luka Doncic playing very well of late. Already averaging career highs in both points and assists this season, Doncic has gone for 39 points, 7.3 points and 7.3 assists over his last three games. We look for a big win by the road team. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

Chicago is a team desperate to make the playoffs this season. In the Eastern Conference, that shouldn’t be that difficult but here we are on March 24th and the Bulls are four games below .500. That’s still good enough for ninth place, which would mean being involved in the play-in scenario, but the Bulls would certainly like to get themselves on “steadier ground” over the next month. Beating a sorry team like Cleveland is imperative in achieving that. The Cavaliers are actually better, record-wise, than three teams in the East. But they have the worst point differential in the entire league. On the road, the Cavs have been terrible with a 5-15 record (SU and ATS) and they’re getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Bulls have not yet had a chance to play Cleveland this year and hosting them should mean a very easy win. It was a 25-point home loss on Monday, but that was to the Jazz. Cleveland also lost at home Monday, by 14 to Sacramento. This spread should be much higher considering the Bulls are 17-5 ATS when facing losing teams. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

After losing to Orlando Friday night, Brooklyn should bounce back tonight at home vs. Washington. The Nets actually are seeking double revenge in this matchup after losing twice to the Wizards back in January. Both games saw them blow big leads. With Washington off a shocking upset over Utah, all signs point to a “return to normalcy” Sunday evening. No team allows more points per game than the Wiz. No team scores more points per game than Brooklyn. The Nets can probably name their point total here as the Wizards have allowed an average of 125.6 points over their previous five contests. The Nets are still winners of 14 of the last 16 games (12-4 ATS) and the last time they were off a loss, they bounced back with an 11-point win in San Antonio. This matchup is far more favorable. James Harden has missed 31 of his last 36 three-point attempts. Think he might be “due” to go “off?” There’s no better opponent for him to do so than this one. Play on BROOKLYN

This is a 10* on DENVER

Losses like the one the Bulls had Wednesday night are what could ultimately prevent this team from making the playoffs. Not making the postseason would be pretty bad considering how weak the East is this year and that 10 teams now get in because of the play-in scenario. So the bottom line is that the Bulls aren’t really a force to be reckoned with. Getting outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter by the Spurs and losing 106-99 snapped a two-game win streak. Now the Bulls hit the road to face a Denver team that’s arguably playing its best basketball of the season. The Nuggets come in having won seven of eight. They’ve won by a combined 40 points in the last two games, beating both Indiana and Charlotte here at home. Chicago is pretty comparable to those teams, tbh, and while the Nuggets are now being asked to lay a larger spread, that shouldn’t be an issue considering they won by six in the Windy City earlier this month. Nikola Jokic had a monster game (39-14-9) against the Bulls, who are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Denver. Play on DENVER

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans has recorded two consecutive blowout wins. The first saw them beat Cleveland 116-82. Given the Cavs stature in the league, you may not be all that impressed by that one. But what about the Pelicans shooting 65% and blitzing the Clippers 135-115 Sunday night? We had the Over in that game and were loving it as NO was up by 33 at one point. Zion Williamson has scored at least 20 points in 17 consecutive games. By the way, the shooting percentage from the Pelicans on Sunday was a new NBA season-high. We like their chances tonight in Portland as they face a Blazers team that’s trending in a different direction right now. Portland lost in Minnesota the other night, which was also the fourth straight game they did not cover the spread. They are only 4-6 SU the L10 games. While the majority of their recent outings have been closely contested affairs, no team in the league has suffered more 20+ point losses. CJ McCollum is set to return tonight, but after a two-month absence, it’ll take awhile for him to return to his “old self.” The Pelicans are looking for revenge as they lost by two at home to the Blazers last month. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto is a better team than Charlotte. They are a bit short-handed right now due to COVID protocol and that is why they are getting points Saturday. Home court doesn’t mean much this season. The Hornets are just 10-8 in home games this year and that’s after a three-point win over a bad Detroit team Thursday. That same night, the Raptors appeared headed for victory as well. They led the Hawks by 15 in the final six minutes, but ended up losing on a buzzer beater. That was their third straight loss and fifth in the last six games. But we’ll go with them to bounce back here against a team they beat twice earlier in the season. Both wins were by just three points, but we’d take that here. It’s fair to say that the Hornets being in the top eight in the conference standings is a MAJOR surprise. It’s not just that they weren’t expected to do much. They’ve also given up more points in 2020-21 than they’ve scored. There have been three previous times this season when the Raptors have been on a three-game losing streak. They’ve responded by going 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game. They are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in this situation the last three years. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is simply a lot better than Indiana right now. The Pacers only barely scraped by Cleveland last night, winning 114-111 thanks to a fourth quarter comeback. T.J. McConnell set a record with nine first half steals and the Pacers shot 56.6% as a team. Yet they still could only win by three against one of the worst teams in the league. Now, without rest, they are facing a team that just destroyed Milwaukee by 31 points - on the road! The Nuggets now look to make it four straight road wins heading into the All Star Break. They also won in Oklahoma City by 30 and we had them when they snuck by Chicago. There are only four teams in this league that have a better point differential than the Nuggets. Indiana is clearly not one of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS their last tries as an underdog and have failed to cover five straight overall. Their starters played heavy minutes last night. They certainly aren’t likely to shoot as well here as they did last night and that means trouble facing a team that has Nikola Jokic and is shooting almost 55% its L3 games. Play on DENVER

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This is an 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is off a loss and Portland is off a win. But the road team (Golden State) opening as the favorite to win tonight should tell you a lot about this matchup. The Warriors had won three in a row (for the first time this season) before losing to the Lakers Sunday night. Meanwhile, Portland was on a four-game losing streak before beating Charlotte Monday. Injuries have certainly impacted both sides in 2020-21 but it feels as if Portland is hurting more right now with Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum all out. Of course, Golden State doesn’t have Klay Thompson, but Draymond Green will play Wednesday. These teams split a couple of games in Oakland last month, each winning in blowout fashion. Why we like the Warriors is that the Blazers simply cannot be trusted to play good defense. They are third to last in the league in number of points allowed per possession. We “smell” a big game coming from Steph Curry tonight as the Warriors are 8-3 ATS their L11 games as a favorite plus 6-2 ATS their L8 following a SU loss.  Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver should probably be higher than seventh in the West as only four teams in the conference have a scoring differential. The Nuggets haven’t done well in games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring, going 0-6 ATS when the total is 230 points or higher. While the total could close that high again tonight in Chicago, the Nuggets are coming off a 30-point win in Oklahoma City and should easily make it back to back wins. The Bulls are improved, but could only score 97 in a home loss to Phoenix on Friday. Most of their recent victories have been against bad teams. In fact, they are just 4-11 straight up when the opponent is .500 or better. The Bulls were supposed to play against Toronto yesterday, but COVID protocol prevented that game from happening. While this is no longer the second night of a back to back, look for Chicago’s rhythm to be disrupted. There’s too much talent to ignore with this Nuggets team as Jamal Murray is averaging 30.1 points his last nine games and Nikola Jokic just put up his eighth triple double of the season. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on CLIPPERS

It's a heavyweight matchup Sunday afternoon on ABC with the Clippers taking on the Bucks. Both teams are currently trying to chase down the top spot in their respective conferences. In the East, Milwaukee only trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games (after the Sixers lost Saturday) and is eventually going to pass them. We’re not as certain about the Clippers catching the insanely hot Jazz, but being only 3.5 (games) back of Utah right now (given how hot the Jazz have been) isn’t a bad place to be. We’re siding with LA in this one as not only are they 4-2 SU/ATS in the six games they’ve been underdogs in, but the Bucks are short-handed with Jrue Holliday and Jaylen Adams both in COVID protocol and DJ Augustin out for personal reasons. Don’t think they can count on Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 24 points again like he did vs. New Orleans on Thursday. It wasn’t too long ago that Milwaukee lost five in a row. The Clippers are basically at full strength (only missing Patrick Patterson) and had seven players finish in double figures last time out. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

You don’t see the Bucks lose five in a row very often, but that’s exactly what they did in an eight-day span (2/10-2/18) earlier this month. They have since “course-corrected” with three consecutive victories at home, all of them coming against what could objectively be called “bad teams” (Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota). Those are probably the three worst teams in the West, for the record. New Orleans is fifth from the bottom in that conference, but we’d say they’re also in a different class from the Bucks’ three previous opponents. A thrilling come from behind win on Sunday against the Celtics showed what the Pelicans are capable of doing. Then they prevailed again last night, beating Detroit 128-118. This team can definitely score as they’ve hit the 120 mark in five of their last eight games. That kind of offensive production makes it awfully difficult to cover against them when the spread is this large. The Pelicans had a season-high 74 points in the paint last night, led by Zion Williamson’s 32. NO is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The Bulls have climbed into the top eight in the East by virtue of two consecutive victories. Now they’re still two games below .500, so this is hardly the halcyon days of the Jordan era. Still, a franchise that has not made the postseason four of the previous five years will “take it.” Chicago is also in a much better place than tonight’s opposition, Minnesota, who has the worst record in the entire NBA and lost five in a row. The Timberwolves played last night and got torched 139-112 at Milwaukee. So the situation here is hardly in their favor. It’s pretty rare that you can get away with laying such a short number like this against the T’wolves. So we’ll jump at the opportunity as the Bulls should have no problems scoring tonight. They’ve put up 120+ points in the last two games and just beat Houston by 20. They’re 11-5 ATS this season if they scored 115 or more in their last game. They’re also 11-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 12-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams. The bottom line is the Bulls are “looking” like a playoff team in 2021 and we think they’ll play like it tonight. Play on CHICAGO

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THIS IS A 10* on PHOENIX

The Suns had a six-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 128-124 loss to Brooklyn. We’re not at all concerned about that. They actually led the Nets, who were without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, by 24. It’s obviously a game they should have won. They can get back on track tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost four of five while giving up an average of 126.8 points/game. Two nights ago, they were beaten here at home by Portland 126-124. They’ve also lost to the likes of Detroit and Chicago recently. Right now, the Pelicans’ record is 12-16 and they just don’t perform well off high-scoring games. They are 4-9 ATS after allowing 115 or more points and 3-9 ATS after scoring 115 or more themselves. The Suns are simply much better defensively as they rank 4th in league in scoring (108 PPG allowed). They’ve recently defeated Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. We’ve got no hesitation with laying a small number with the better team. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami experienced a horrible loss last night as it blew a 19-point lead and lost to Golden State in overtime. It was a game where the Heat never actually trailed in regulation. Needless to say, that’s a game you “can’t lose.” But they did and are now sitting at 11-17 on the season, having lost three in a row. Sacramento is 12-15 and they’ve lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Someone’s going to reverse their recent fortune here and we believe it will be the Heat, even though the Kings are rested. The four straight losses have all been at home. They’ve also all been by eight points or greater. Miami beat Sacramento on January 30th even though the Kings made 17 three-pointers in that game. The Kings defense is just horrendous as they allow more points per game than anyone in the West. At home, they are giving up an average of 121.6 points/game. Miami shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring tonight and we look for them to erase the painful memory of last night’s defeat. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana’s woes continued on Monday as they lost in overtime to Chicago. It was their seventh loss in the last 10 games and the fifth time in those 10 games they lost as a favorite. They were down 11 in the fourth quarter Monday. But tonight it's a welcome reprieve for the Pacers as they face Minnesota, who just played last night. The Timberwolves lost 112-104 to the Lakers (no Anthony Davis) Tuesday. They too have dropped seven of their last 10 games. But while Indiana is still fifth in the Eastern Conference with the same streak, Minnesota is last in the Western Conference. A case can be made that they are the league’s weakest overall team, so we won’t hesitate to lay such a short number tonight as Indiana is on a 13-4-1 ATS run in the road favorite role. Another interesting trend here is that the T’wolves are 3-7 ATS when their five starters collectively played for more than 160 minutes the previous game. They combined for 161 last night. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Two years ago, these teams met in the Eastern Conference Finals. In that series, the Raptors pulled off what was considered an “upset” and went on to win their 1st NBA Championship. Milwaukee has been the top seed in the East each of the last two years, yet hasn’t even advanced to a NBA Finals. They are currently in second place and just ended a six-game road trip with three consecutive losses. Losing to Utah and by one to Phoenix is excusable, however falling as an 11-point favorite to Oklahoma City (which is what Milwaukee did on Sunday) is not. They return home Tuesday, but the first home game following a long road trip always seems to be a tough spot, especially when returning from the West Coast. Toronto is off its own embarrassing loss (to Minnesota), so they’ve got something to play for. The Raptors had won five of six before dropping two straight. They also have revenge tonight for a seven-point loss last month. The initial line movement for this game definitely looks to be of the sharper variety. Take the points in this one. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks desperately need a win tonight. They have lost three straight and six of seven. This losing streak has dropped them into ninth place in the East, even though they can still claim to have scored more points than they’ve allowed this season. The Knicks actually have a better record than the Hawks (two up in the win column) as they are coming off wins over Washington and Houston. They won those games by a combined 40 points! But be wary of a team that still only averages 103.4 points/game. The 121 the Knicks scored against the Rockets were their most since the third game of the season. Center Mitchell Robinson broke his hand Friday, which is a significant injury for this team. Atlanta really collapsed defensively against Indiana Saturday night, but we don’t see that happening again tonight. Plus Trae Young is going to have a better shooting night here than he did vs. the Pacers (he didn’t even attempt a single three-pointer in that game). Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on the LAKERS

The Lakers fell behind 22-2 at the start Friday night. But over the course of the final three quarters, they battled back and ended up winning fairly comfortably against Memphis, 115-105. They even covered the 8.5-point spread! They can ill-afford a similar start tonight in Denver but it’s fair to say we won’t see anything like the start vs. Memphis. The Lakers have won seven in a row, the most convincing of which was a 114-93 game vs. the Nuggets out in LA. Incredibly that was a game the Lakers trailed by 12 at halftime. It may not end up being as big of a blowout tonight, but it doesn’t have to be and again, we stress the fact the Lakers WILL get off to a better start. Denver has won two straight after losing four of five, but those wins were vs. Cleveland and Oklahoma City. Against the Thunder, the Nuggets had their own poor start as they fell behind by 19. The Lakers can’t let the Jazz get too far ahead in the fight for first in the Western Conference. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston has lost four straight games and failed to cover the spread in all of them. The two that were on the road did not go well at all as they were beaten by a combined 54 points at Charlotte and New Orleans. Thursday they lost at home to Miami. But we look for the Rockets to blast off tonight in New York as the Knicks are in the second game of a back to back and off a win. They beat the Wizards 109-91 Friday night, a win which came on the road. Having to now head home without any rest in between games is a tough spot for a team we still don’t think is very good, even though it is 12-15, a more competitive record than expected. The Rockets had a 13-point lead Thursday and could be shorthanded here, but we still like them as they’d won seven of eight before this four-game slide. The Knicks have failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve played a back to back. Play on HOUSTON

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

While Portland upset Philadelphia last night, we do not see them suffering any kind of letdown in the second night of a back to back against Cleveland. The Cavaliers have been really lousy of late, losing seven of the last eight. They were just beaten by THIRTY EIGHT points in Denver on Wednesday. It was the fifth loss by 18 or more points since January 29th. You’re looking at a team that has the worst point differential among Eastern Conference teams, so it’s just a matter of time before the Cavs are at/near last place in the standings. The only team in the league with a worse power rating is Minnesota. Portland is 5th in the Western Conference and has to be feeling good about itself following the result last night. They have won four of the last five games and two straight at home. Cleveland let Denver make 60% of its field goal attempts, so the Blazers should have a big game offensively. The Cavs are also getting outscored by 12.6 points/game on the road, so we have zero hesitation about laying such a short number. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

We say it’s “time” for the Mavericks to actually cover a game! They are just 1-10 ATS L11, but have won the last three straight up, all three wins coming by five points or less. Those three wins were against Golden State, Minnesota and Atlanta. Against Atlanta Wednesday night, they had to rally back from a 13-point deficit. It’s a real small number that the Mavs are being asked to lay tonight as the Pelicans pay a visit to Dallas. The Pelicans just dropped a game in Chicago, 129-116, which snapped a four-game SU and ATS win streak. Neither of these teams are among the top eight in the Western Conference and both are two games below .500. So it would “seem” to be a fairly even matchup. However, Dallas has grossly underachieved to this point and in our estimation is due to improve its record. They are just 2-10 ATS at home. How long can they continue to sport such a poor covering rate? New Orleans is pretty atrocious at defending the 3-point line, giving up an average of 16 threes per game. They just let Chicago make 25! This has been a favorable matchup in the past for the Mavericks, who won all four matchups last season. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on PORTLAND

Philadelphia continues to lead the Eastern Conference with an 18-7 record. Their lead has now grown to two games with Milwaukee losing at Phoenix last night. The Sixers have won six of their last seven games and tonight finds them getting an opportunity to avenge that one loss as they travel to Portland. The Blazers beat them 121-105 last Thursday and that was in Philly. The Blazers were 10-point underdogs in that game and pulled the upset despite not even having Damian Lillard in the lineup! They also didn’t have CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. What they did have is six players score 14 or more points and a third quarter where they outscored the 76ers 40-19. Lillard will be in the lineup tonight and the game is in Portland where the Blazers just won 106-97 over Orlando Tuesday night. Philly had to rally late to win at Sacramento that same night and you’re going to want to take the points here. This spread is pretty similar to that Sixers-Kings game, which seems ridiculous on the surface as Portland is better than Sacramento. The Blazers are 4-1 straight up and against the spread the last five meetings. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana, despite losing four in a row, is still in sixth place in the Eastern Conference. Detroit is at the bottom with a 6-18 record for the season. The Pistons did win Tuesday, over the team that just beat the Pacers last night (Brooklyn). But we’re looking at this as a classic buy low spot on the favorite. While it’s been a rough month so far, the Pacers have played a number of good teams. It’s been awhile since they faced anyone in the same class as Detroit, a team they have actually not faced since the end of 2019! This should be a welcome matchup. Indiana was -24 in free throw attempts compared to Brooklyn last night, a big reason they lost. A big reason why the Pistons beat the Nets is that they were an uncharacteristically hot 56 percent from the floor. This is a team that shoots just 43.3% for the season. Indiana’s starters had only 51 points last night and the team shot 39.1% overall. Again, it’s all about the “buy low” as the Pacers are a better team than the Pistons and should be laying a larger number. Detroit is 0-5 after a win this year. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

The Wizards HAVE to be better than this, right? Their 5-15 record is second worst in the Eastern Conference and yesterday’s 119-97 loss at Charlotte was just plain embarrassing. Tonight they try and dust themselves off in Chicago against a Bulls team they’ve already lost to twice this season, both times at home. Those games took place right before the new year and were relatively close. Washington was also a six and seven point favorite in them. This will actually be the Bulls sixth straight game being favored, which is pretty rare. But all those lines have been three points or less and they’re only 2-3. The Wizards have the NBA’s leading scorer in Bradley Beal (33.3 PPG) and are a lock to improve upon Sunday’s atrocious 9 of 40 shooting from three-point range. The Bulls are only 3-7 at home and 2-5 their last seven games overall. We think the road team is better, so it makes sense to grab them as underdogs. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Utah is unquestionably the hottest team in the league right now as they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. Making the run all the more impressive is the fact all but one of those victories has been by double digits. The one single-digit win happened to be against the team that also beat them last Sunday, Denver. With the best overall record in the Western Conference right now, the Jazz have to be feeling good about themselves. But I view this game as a potential “slip up” as Indiana has got to turn things around. The Pacers have lost two straight and four of five. The last loss was close as they were beaten 114-113 by New Orleans here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Remember that earlier in the week the Pacers did snap Memphis’ seven-game win streak with an emphatic 134-116 win at home. So there’s a precedent for beating a red-hot team.The Pacers are 5-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. They were -1.5 vs. New Orleans. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

The Warriors crushed the Mavs on Thursday, winning 147-116. It was the second night of a back to back for Dallas, but that’s still no excuse to be beaten THAT badly, especially since Golden State had just nine players available for that game. Something is just not right with the Mavs, who have now dropped seven of their last eight. The lone victory during that stretch came in Atlanta, the night before getting destroyed by the Warriors. Golden State has yet to win (or lose) three in a row this season. But they have won back to back games five times. In fact, all 10 wins have “come in pairs.” So by that trend, they “should” win tonight. We’ll grab the points just to “be careful,” but it’s certainly difficult to look past what happened the other night and think this will be anything other than an outright win. Dallas is the worst three-point shooting team in the league. They are also just 1-7 against the spread their last eight games. The Warriors were our 10* Game of the Month last Saturday when they blew out the Pistons. They are our top choice again for this week. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on BOSTON

Boston is playing its third straight game on the West Coast and they hope it goes more like the first one than the second. They started this trip by defeating the Warriors 111-107 as a 2-point favorite. The following night they lost 116-111 at Sacramento (were favored by 1 pt). Tonight they are an underdog at the Clippers, who have won all but two of their previous 13 games. They are tied with the Lakers (17-6) for 2nd in the Western Conference, trailing Utah by one-half game. Boston is 4th in the East. Key here is the Celtics are 5-3 ATS as underdogs with four outright wins. Coming off a long road trip, the Clips may be prone to a letdown in this situation and it’s a decent number they are laying to a good team. They are only 4-5-1 ATS as home favorites and 7-8-1 ATS off a win. They don’t have point guard Patrick Beverely in this contest and we can’t see them shooting as well from three tonight as they did against Cleveland. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on INDIANA

Indiana looked really good last night, beating a Memphis team that had previously won seven in a row. The Grizzlies were playing on the second night of a back to back, but the Pacers made it look easy with a 134-116 victory. They shot nearly 60% for the game and now must avoid the same fate that befell their opponents last night as they play without rest. Milwaukee is the opponent, so it won’t be easy, but the Bucks are just 3-4 SU L7 games. Also no one on the Pacers logged more than 35 minutes last night. Playing on back to back days hasn’t been a problem before. They are actually 3-0 straight up and against the spread in such games this season. They are also 4-2 SU and ATS as an underdog. While the Bucks started this homestand by drubbing Portland 134-106, that may not be a good thing as they are 0-3 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more in their last game. Play on INDIANA

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland played a terrible game last night in Milwaukee, losing 134-106. The Bucks were coming off two straight losses, a rarity for them, but still there’s rarely an excuse for losing by 28 points. Tonight the Blazers face a Washington team that’s off a shocking win as they defeated Brooklyn 149-147 (a game that ended in regulation!) Saturday night. That was the Wizards’ first win since returning from a long COVID-induced layoff. They’d lost four in a row prior and were beaten soundly in all four games. That they were behind by five with just 10 seconds left against Brooklyn means the Wizards are quite lucky not to be on a 5-game losing streak here. We’re a bit surprised that they are the favorites tonight. Yes the game is in D.C. but the Wizards still have one of the worst records in the NBA at 4-12 SU. Portland has taken the last three meetings. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans certainly did right by me on Friday. They were able to defeat Milwaukee, right here at home, by a score of 131-126. That scoring output matched the most points allowed by the Bucks in any game this season. So it was a really impressive victory for the Pelicans. Unfortunately, they had to play the next night and lost 126-112 to Houston. That makes it nine losses in the last 12 games for a team that was expected to make the playoffs this year. Sacramento is not a team anyone expects to make the playoffs, so this is a game the Pelicans “have to have.” They’re laying a surprisingly short number, partly because the Kings are 4-0 ATS their last four games, but we’ll lay it. The Kings are just dreadful defensively despite a low-scoring loss in Miami over the weekend. No team in the league allows more points per possession and it’s not really close. The 119.6 points/game allowed by the Kings are the most in the Western Conference. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

There is an interesting pattern this year with Golden State as they have yet to win or lose three in a row. Thursday marked the fifth time they failed to win a third straight game. They lost by 21 at Phoenix, a shocking failure as it was only a five-point deficit at halftime. The problem was that other than Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins, the rest of the team shot just 32 percent (22 of 68). There have been three times so far that the Warriors have lost back to back games. However, each time the second loss came on the road. And those losses were all to really good teams: Milwaukee, Denver and Utah. Tonight they are facing a bad Detroit team and the game is at home. The Pistons are 1-7 on the road and allow 119.0 points per game. Fresh off an upset of the Lakers at home, we say the Pistons are ripe to get blown out Saturday night. When they beat the Lakers, there was no Anthony Davis. LeBron James went uncharacteristically cold in the second half. Curry won’t be cold in this game considering the Pistons defensive woes on the road. The Warriors already beat the Pistons by 10 in Detroit last month. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Milwaukee is off a fairly big win over Toronto. This is the middle game of a three-game road trip. New Orleans just won, 124-106 against Washington. That was just their second win in 10 games. The Pelicans have only gotten to play six home games though. They are 3-3 in those six, not that great, but the Bucks are only 4-4 on the road. Playing on ESPN, you figure the Pelicans are going to come out highly motivated. The Bucks are just 5-15-1 ATS off a win and 2-6-1 ATS off an ATS win. New Orleans has been a home underdog only one time and they won that game, 120-116 over Toronto. They were actually only a one-point dog in that game. This is likely to be the most points they get in any home game this season (or at least until they play the Lakers). Even though they are just 2-8 the last 10 games, the Pelicans have only been outscored by an average of less than five points per game. Play on NEW ORLEANS

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Both the Warriors and Suns were in action last night. The respective results were quite different. Golden State handled its business at home against Minnesota, winning rather easily by a score of 123-111. Rookie James Wiseman led the way with 25 points after Steph Curry had 36 the previous game vs. the Timberwolves. Off that two-game sweep, Golden State now goes to the desert where they’ll face a wounded Suns team that is playing without leading scorer Devin Booker. Last night marked the third straight loss for Phoenix as they fell 102-97 here at home to Oklahoma City. It also marked the fifth loss in the last six games and seventh in the last 10. Last night was especially frustrating for the Suns as they jumped out to an early 17-point lead. But that didn’t last long. Booker isn’t the only one not playing for the Suns right now. Dario Sakic has been out due to COVID, so this team is pretty short-handed right now. You have to imagine that Curry is going to have a bounce back game tonight after missing his first seven shots last night. That’s bad news for a struggling Suns team that is just 1-5 ATS its last six games as a favorite. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on BOSTON

After a three-game losing streak that saw them lose twice to the 76ers and in embarrassing fashion to the Knicks, Boston has battled back to win its last two games in very convincing fashion. They took care of the Cavs 141-103 and then the Bulls 119-103. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that was supposed to play Monday in New Orleans, but didn’t due to COVID-19 protocols. The Spurs last played Sunday when they blew out a Washington team that was playing its first game in two weeks. Before that, the Spurs had lost two straight. With COVID now impacting them, we don’t see the Spurs playing well tonight. Jayson Tatum is now back for the Celtics, who are 4-1 ATS their last five as favorites. It appears that we don’t need to worry about this game not being played. So we’ll lay the points. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on UTAH 

Utah is the hottest team in the league right now. They are 8-0 straight up and against the spread in their last eight games. Do not expect any kind of letdown this evening as they are up against the last team to defeat them. Surprisingly, that team is New York. It was on January 6th that the Knicks upset the Jazz 112-100. They were eight-point underdogs at home for that matchup, which saw them trail by as much as 18 at one point. The shocking comeback saw the Knicks outscore the Jazz 68-44 in the second half. But that’s clearly not what you should expect here. Utah led by as many as 40 points Saturday vs. Golden State and won by 19. New York ended up only losing by three Sunday in Portland, but was behind by as many as 25 at one point before pulling off the “backdoor cover.” The Knicks have now lost 7 of 10 as they continue to be wildly inconsistent. We do not fear the possibility of a back door cover this time as the Jazz are out for revenge and have won by double digits in seven of the eight games during the active win streak. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland didn’t cover the spread last night, but they certainly should have. They led the Knicks by 20 points at halftime only to let that large lead slip away. They won 116-113 as a 3.5-point favorite after scoring just 19 points in the fourth quarter. Tonight they face another bad team, Oklahoma City, who is also playing the second game of a back to back. The Thunder lost Sunday, 108-100 to the Clippers, to fall to 1-5 SU their last 6 games. The only win was by two points at Chicago. Though playing short-handed (no McCollum, Jurkic), we still give the advantage here to the Blazers. The Thunder aren’t a good team. They trailed by 17 on Sunday before making the game closer than it actually was. The same was true in their previous game vs. the Clippers. So it’s very much the opposite for Portland, who played much better last night than what the final score says. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

The Knicks are 8-9 and holding down 8th place in the Eastern Conference, which is a lot better than where we thought they’d be at this point of the season. Generally regarded as one of the worst teams in the league coming into the season, New York has been an underdog in virtually all of its games thus far. They’d pulled three consecutive upsets prior to losing 103-94 in Sacramento Friday night. But one easy thing to note here is that they are last in the league in points per game. Portland, who is dealing with some injuries right now, is 8-6 and fourth in the Western Conference. They haven’t played since Monday when they were defeated 125-104 by San Antonio. The Blazers were supposed to face Memphis Wednesday and Friday, but those games had to be cancelled due to the Grizzlies’ COVID-19 issues. "Between getting extra rest and extra reps, the practices have been good for us,"Portland head coach Terry Stotts said. "It helped. There is no question that having extra time to work on things on both ends -- we need to adjust. Different guys will have different roles. From that standpoint, missing these two games was good for us." We’ll put our faith in what the coach had to say as it’s unlikely the Knicks can continue winning regularly. They are 2-6 ATS their last eight games in Portland. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Utah is on a 7-0 SU/ATS run here, but actually had to rally from a double digit deficit to win against New Orleans Thursday night. We were glad to see that seeing as we were on the Jazz, but it’s time to reverse course Saturday when Golden State comes to town. As good as Utah has been recently, not sure it’s going to continue over the course of the season. They’ve beaten some bad teams during this win streak. Against opponents that come in at .500 or better, they are just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 against the spread. Golden State hasn’t done well as a favorite so far, but the last time they were an underdog, they upset the Lakers Monday night. That was a Lakers team that, like the Jazz here, were on a big winning streak. The Warriors suffered an embarrassing defeat in their last game, to the Knicks, and you know they’re going to want to bounce back from that. Before that, they’d not only beaten the Lakers, but also the Spurs by 22 points. Take the points in this matchup. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on UTAH

We learned our lesson in the previous matchup between these teams, which went down Tuesday and saw the Jazz emerge victorious by a score of 118-102. They covered the spread too, as 6.5-point favorites. It was the sixth straight win and cover for a Utah team that is playing as well as anyone in the league right now. We had the Pelicans Tuesday, but not again here as they can’t seem to buy a victory with just one in the previous seven games. In its last five games, Utah has given up an average of just 94.2 points. New Orleans hasn’t been good offensively, save for the win against Sacramento, who happens to be the worst defensive team in the NBA. The Jazz have become absolutely lethal from behind the three-point line, a fact the Pelicans know all too well as they helplessly watched the Jazz make 21 3PA on Tuesday. It was the fourth time in the last six games Utah made at least 20 threes! This is very much the third best team in the West right now. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks are still looking to regain that early season form. Monday’s 108-97 win against Minnesota was definitely a “step in the right direction” and now they can get back to .500 with a win today over Detroit, which shouldn’t be difficult considering the Pistons are the worst team in the league. The spread isn’t even that high. Atlanta began the year 4-1 but has lost six of eight. Both wins were at home though and the Pistons have just one road win so far and it came against a severely depleted Miami Heat squad. Detroit is just 3-10 SU overall following a loss to the Heat on Monday. Atlanta won 128-120 when these teams played on December 28th and while they failed to cover, that’s because they were laying 11 points. The line is much shorter this time, probably due to recent form, but the Pistons very much remain a terrible team while we believe the Hawks are among the league’s most improved squads this season. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

The Jazz have looked really good of late, not only winning - but also covering - five in a row. The win streak began with an upset in Milwaukee, but since then it’s been four straight as favorites. They are laying points again tonight vs. a New Orleans team that just ended a five-game LOSING streak by defeating Sacramento 128-123 on Sunday. This is the first of two games these teams will play over the next three days. While it won’t be as easy for Pelicans to score here as it was Sunday, we still like them plus the points in this scenario as each of the previous four meetings have been close with two of them decided by just two points each. Just not convinced that Utah is as dominant as they’ve looked recently, plus this is kind of a letdown spot following the win in Denver Sunday, which was a big revenge game stemming from last year’s playoffs. The Jazz are only 2-2 SU at home. They are just 6-14-2 ATS L22 here. Three Pelicans topped 20 points on Sunday. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on BROOKLYN

This might be the last time this season we see Brooklyn as a home underdog. We’ll seize the opportunity. James Harden’s first game with the Nets probably couldn’t have gone much better as he notched a triple double and Kevin Durant scored 42 points. Admittedly, that was against the Magic. But having two players like Harden and Durant make the Nets a top three team in the league. Kyrie Irving, whose status is questionable, becomes more “expendable” with the arrival of Harden. While the Bucks have won seven of eight, three of those wins were versus Detroit. They too beat Orlando, as well as bad teams like Chicago and Cleveland. Really, the only “good” team they’ve beaten recently was Dallas on Friday and that win came by just three points. This is a big statement game for a Brooklyn team that has lost eight straight times at home to the Bucks. That streak ends tonight. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

San Antonio and Portland’s recent form is quite similar as both won Saturday in come from behind fashion. The Spurs have five of their last seven games while the Blazers have won five of six. In both cases, strong play at the defensive end keyed the Saturday victories. The Spurs actually found themselves down double digits in the first half to a very undermanned Houston squad (who had just eight players suit up) before taking control late. Portland trailed Atlanta by seven at the break but allowed just 20 points in the third and fourth quarters. We side with the home team in this MLK Day afternoon game. The Spurs have been strong on the road (5-2) thus far, but did lose at Minnesota as a favorite. We found it curious to see them favored in this one. Maybe that’s because of the injuries, but Damian Lillard is still here and his 36 points led the way vs. Atlanta. The Spurs are just 8-20-1 ATS their last 29 games as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Pistons didn’t play last night because their scheduled opponent (Washington) didn’t have enough players. Tonight they are set to face another team ravaged by COVID, Miami, who has had eight players miss the previous two games. Despite that disadvantage, the Heat hung tough in both games vs. Philadelphia. The first game went to overtime and while the second was a 17-point loss, we think they’re better than that. If there was ever a team the Heat could hope to face here, it would be Detroit, who is NOT better than its 2-9 record. Their only two wins have been by a total of eight points and in one of them, they trailed by 20+ before storming back to win in overtime. To be fair, the Pistons were expected to be the worst team in the East this year. Our view is that Miami takes this game very seriously and their skeleton crew will still be able to defeat the team with the worst record in the league. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Denver was looking at a possible third consecutive win on Tuesday when they faced Brooklyn. Things started off well enough as the Nuggets jumped out to an 18-point lead in that game. But they blew it and ended up losing 122-116, thereby denying them a winning record. They’ve yet to be over .500 at any point this season, a disappointment after finishing 2nd and 3rd in the Western Conference each of the previous two seasons. Tonight, they’ll play host to the Warriors, who are a game over .500 as they look to rebound from a dismal 2019-20 campaign. Golden State also lost Tuesday, 104-95 to Indiana, as they too squandered a halftime lead. But only one of these teams can bounce back tonight in the second game of the TNT doubleheader. We’re siding with the Warriors, mainly due to the fact Denver is just 3-6 ATS as a favorite so far. Defensively, Golden State has been better than Denver this season and we see Steph Curry possibly “going off” here after being held to 20 points or fewer in three of the last four games. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 9* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks have really had the Pistons number the last few seasons. They’ve won 13 in a row over their Central Division rivals with two of those victories coming last week. Most of the games haven’t been close either. The Bucks have gone 11-1-1 ATS in those 13 straight wins and the two last week were by 10 and 15 points. They didn’t cover the first one as they were huge 16-point favorites. The number is a lot more advantageous tonight in Detroit. It’s not like there’s much of a home court advantage for the Pistons. They just lost here on Sunday, 96-86 to the Jazz. Detroit has just two wins, one of which was in overtime after they overcame a 23-point deficit. They are one of the worst teams in the league while the Bucks very much remain the best. No team can touch the Bucks’ league-leading point differential and/or net efficiency rating. They are averaging 121.9 points/game while allowing only 110.3. All seven wins have come by double digits. No reason this shouldn’t be #8. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on OKC

Oklahoma City continues to be a great bet, especially when getting points, as they’ve won and covered each of their last three games - all of them as the underdog. The Thunder held the best ATS record in the league last season and are already off to a strong 6-3 start at the betting window this season. They are on a 48-25 ATS roll as underdogs and once again they’re getting points tonight as they host San Antonio. This isn’t the “Spurs of old” either. They just lost 96-88 in Minnesota Sunday, as a favorite, which was their fifth loss in eight games. They’ve been favored in only two games this season, those being the last two - both of which were vs. the Timberwolves. Not only did they lose outright on Sunday, but they failed to cover in a win Saturday. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip which began exactly seven days ago. So this is likely a tired team, one that is playing without DeMar DeRozan, the team leader in scoring and assists. Oklahoma City hasn’t won at home yet (0-3), but the fact they just went 4-1 SU on a five-game road trip tells us they are ready to. Grab the home team plus the points. Play on OKLAHOMA CITY

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After seeing them lose last night at Golden State, it’s pretty obvious that this Raptors team is a “far cry” from the one that won the NBA Championship just two years ago. It’s not just that they lost to the team they beat in the 2019 Finals, it’s a 2-7 start to this season. Kawhi Leonard is obviously long gone and this just isn’t the same team that lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy. Probably the only positive coming out of last night is that Toronto snapped a streak of four straight games allowing 120 points or more. They did a good job keeping Steph Curry in check. But they still lost and were down 15 going into the fourth quarter! That’s a bad sign as they get ready to face a Portland team that was off Sunday. The Blazers have won two in a row by an average of 22 points/game. They’ve scored 122 or more in four of the last five games. The fact that the Raptors aren’t able to play any games in Toronto is going to continue to catch up with them and this team is 0-4 ATS so far coming off a straight up loss as a favorite (they were -2.5 at GSW). Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on NEW YORK

The Knicks, even though they came up short Friday in OKC, have been a pleasant surprise in the early going with a 5-4 won-loss record. Denver has been a major disappointment as they are just 4-5 straight up and 2-7 against the spread. They are off a win yesterday, but it came at the expense of a severely depleted Philadelphia team that had only seven available players. All four Nuggets wins this year have come with rest. So this second night of a back to back - where they are laying points on the road - does not seem like a good situation to back them. The only other time they played without rest was when they lost by 10 at Sacramento. As underdogs, the Knicks have covered five of six and all five covers were also SU wins. They did lead the Thunder early - by as many as 11 - on Friday. Denver has lost four games that it has been favored in so far. We think its pretty clear the Nuggets aren’t as good as they were a season ago while the Knicks seem to be much improved. Play on NEW YORK

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Brooklyn’s first game without Kevin Durant (in quarantine) could not possibly have gone any better as they thwarted the Jazz 130-96 as a 5-point home underdog. Oddsmakers have apparently NOT learned their lesson as they’ve once again installed the Nets as home dogs tonight vs. Philadelphia. Granted, the Sixers have the best overall record in the Eastern Conference at 7-1. However, look at who they’ve played: Washington twice, New York, Cleveland, Toronto, Orlando and Charlotte twice. All are struggling teams that we don’t think are going to finish anywhere near the top of the standings. This is the second game of a back to back for Philly as they won a wild 141-136 game against the Wizards last night.  We’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly, so it’s a mistake to have Brooklyn as an underdog at home even with Durant out, given the Sixers are playing without rest. Kyrie Irving made his first nine shots against Utah and finished with 29 points. He may not be quite as prolific tonight, but we don’t need him to be. All we are looking for is a win, it doesn’t need to be by 34 points like we saw Monday. There is no way the shots are going to fall for Philly tonight the way they did Wednesday. Play on BROOKLYN

This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks beat the Pistons by 10 points on Monday and should win by a much larger margin tonight. While it’s going to be tough for the Bucks to shoot the ball better than they did Monday, they can help themselves by defending better. Detroit shouldn’t score 115 again as they usually don’t do well in games that have a total of 220 points or more. They are just 19-36 ATS in such games. They are also only 11-24 ATS L35 division games. Milwaukee is 27-8 ATS its last 35 division games. Then you’ve got the head to head. The Bucks are 12-0 SU the L12 meetings, going 10-1-1 ATS. The Pistons have given up an average of 117.6 points/game this season and that’s obviously not going to cut it against the league’s top scoring team. The Bucks can name the score here. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

Before the season started, we identified Atlanta as a possible “sleeper” team in the Eastern Conference. Sure enough, the Hawks got off to a 4-1 start and were “flying high.” But they came crashing down with a surprise home loss to Cleveland Saturday night and that should have them ready to rock when they host another bad team, the Knicks, Monday night. Prior to coming up short vs. the Cavs, the Hawks only loss was by four points at Brooklyn. Their only non-cover came in an eight-point win against the Pistons. They were 11-pt chalk vs. Detroit and that’s what we think the line should be here, so it’s a real bargain on the home side. The Knicks have pulled some shocking upsets already, the latest was them winning as a 10-point dog at Indiana on Saturday. But when they lose, they lose big. All three losses this season have come by double digits. Something to keep in mind with Atlanta is they had a 15-point lead against Cleveland before a sloppy second half led to them giving the game away. This is the Knicks’ 4th straight game on the road and we don’t see them having much left in the tank. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on TORONTO 

Toronto is 0-3, both straight up and against the spread, but here comes the Knicks to rectify that problem. Now the Knicks have won two straight including a shocking upset of Milwaukee. So the Raptors need to take this game seriously. Given their record, you have to think they will. They have beaten the Knicks eight consecutive times. New York is going to be really short-handed for this one due to multiple injuries. A near skeleton crew playing on the road on New Year’s Eve probably isn’t going to bring out the best effort from them. The 130 points they scored against Milwaukee was a fairly “head-scratching” performance while the other win was “only” against lowly Cleveland, who shot 36.4% from the field. The Knicks lost by double digits each of the first two games. We know the Raptors aren’t able to play in Toronto yet (home games are in Tampa, FL for now), but this is one they badly need as they seek to avoid their worst start to a season in a decade and a half. Play on TORONTO

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This is an 8* on HOUSTON

A lot of drama in Houston (COVID, James Harden) has resulted in an 0-2 start, but the Rockets should finally blast off tonight against Sacramento. The Kings are beating the odds thus far with a 3-1 start that has seen them face both the Nuggets and Suns twice. They were underdogs in all four of those games, just as they are here. But three of those four games were at home. Two of the wins came by three points or less. Seems like the Kings are due for a “reality check” on New Year’s Eve as Houston has gone 6-1, both straight up and against the spread, vs. them the previous two seasons. John Wall is set to make his Rockets debut here as he and two other players return from quarantine. The others are Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins. The Rockets were only able to travel with nine players for their two road games because of COVID protocols. This looks to be an obvious spot where they get things going in a positive direction. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on LA LAKERS

We’ve seen how the Lakers perform off a loss before and it was a 138-115 thrashing of Dallas on Christmas night. They are off a loss again tonight as they fell 115-107 to Portland on Monday. Their first road game of the year is tonight in San Antonio where they’ll face a Spurs team that is 3-0 ATS. This is the first of two straight games here in the Alamo as the teams play again on New Year’s Day. Though it was the second night of a back to back, it was a little surprising to see the Lakers falter down the stretch against Portland. It was the first time in more than a year that they lost a game in which they led going into the 4th quarter (59-0 previously). But they didn’t get much production off the bench (only 23 points) and thus couldn’t finish the job. However, we like them to finish here as the Spurs only scored 95 points against New Orleans on Sunday, their first loss of the 2020-21 season. We don’t expect much from San Antonio this year and they lost all three times they played the Lakers in 2019-2020. All three games were decided by at least seven points and two were at home. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs where Miami “stunned” Milwaukee with a 4-1 series win. The Bucks are just 1-2 to start the year with road losses to the Celtics and Knicks. Their only win, Christmas Day vs. Golden State was at home. Losing to the Knicks is embarrassing enough but giving up 130 points was really bad. Considering that loss and the revenge angle, we are anticipating “everyone” to be on the Bucks here, but the spread is too high. Miami hasn’t played since Christmas when they easily handled the Pelicans. That 111-98 win was reminiscent of the team we saw go all the way to the NBA Finals back in October. Probably no Jimmy Butler tonight, but that’s okay as the Heat can still turn to a deep roster that’s led by Bam Adebayo’s team-high 21.0 PPG scoring average. The team is also 10-3 SU/9-3 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. The Bucks aren’t getting much offensive production beyond their top two scorers (Giannis, Middleton) and the defense looked very shaky in both defeats. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

This seems like a lot of points for Houston to be getting? With the James Harden saga and COVID cancelling their first game, the Rockets are seemingly being “written off.” But they did take Portland to overtime in their only game played so far (lost 128-126) and easily covered a spread similar to this one. Harden scored 44 points and didn’t seem the least bit bothered by the drama. Denver is 0-2 right now with home losses to Sacramento and the Clippers. The Sacramento game went to overtime, but they were straight out blitzed X-mas night by LA. The expectation here will be that Denver “can’t” lose a third straight game at home. But that line of thinking has led to an inflated number, which we will gladly grab. The Rockets are 8-3 ATS the L11 meetings with the Nuggets and 25-19 ATS their L44 as underdogs. They flat out seem “mis-priced” in the early going this year. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Phoenix will look to avenge last night’s 106-103 loss in Sacramento, which was their first ATS loss in 10 games going back to last season’s bubble. They’d also won all nine games straight up. Sacramento is 2-0 with those wins coming by two and three points. They opened with an overtime win against Denver, but just as easily could be 0-2 right now. We can’t really see 3-0 happening for the Kings. So we’ll lay a short number with the Suns in this immediate revenge spot. Huge edges in rebounding and free throw attempts were key for the Kings last night. It’s atypical they enjoy such large advantages in those areas. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Both the Mavs and Lakers are coming off season-opening losses. The Lakers fell 116-109 to the Clippers while the Mavs lost 106-102 in Phoenix. Though Luka Doncic was able to score 32 points against the Suns, he was 0 for 6 on three-point attempts. His teammates’ shooting was no better (25 of 59) as the Mavs finished the game at just 42.4% overall and a miserable 9 of 24 from behind the arc. We expect the shooting will improve Christmas night. The turnaround between seasons is short and unprecedented for every team, but especially the Lakers, who were in the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Being a more veteran team, they could start slow. They fell behind the Clippers by 20 early on opening night and had 19 turnovers. The offseason acquisitions make them stronger (than last year) in the long run, but those pieces are going to need time to “gel.” Not only do we see Dallas covering on Christmas night, they may very well end up winning this one outright. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

After making five straight Finals appearances and winning three NBA Championships, the Warriors completely fell apart last season. Injuries were the reason. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green remain “on the mend,” but Steph Curry is back and set to lead the team back to relevance in 2020-21. Opening night certainly didn’t go the way Golden State had hoped as they got blown out in Brooklyn, 125-99. But you can say the same for Milwaukee, who lost their first game, 122-121 in Boston. Even though the Bucks nearly won, they too found themselves down double digits much of the second half. That they shot 51% on the road and lost is a “tough pill” to swallow. With “everyone” expecting Milwaukee to bounce back on Christmas Day, we’ll be siding with the Warriors as this line is far too large for a game taking place this early in the season. It’s only going to get higher due to Golden State’s first game performance. But Curry, who had 20 points vs. the Nets, is going to shoot better than 2 for 10 from 3-point land here (that’s what he shot in Brooklyn). The Warriors’ 3-point defense will also improve after they allowed the Nets to hit 43% from distance. Milwaukee has several new pieces and it’s going to take time to gel after the short offseason. We don’t see them being as dominant right away, compared to the past two seasons. We really believe in the Warriors here. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee has been the best team in the Eastern Conference each of the last two seasons, but has yet to make their way to an NBA Finals. Boston has made it to the Conference Finals in three of the last four seasons. So both of these teams have high hopes for 2020-21. With Giannis Antetokounmpo now signed, the Bucks can focus on the court and do what they do best. This has been the best offensive team in the league, at least in the regular season, two years running. They added Jrue Holiday. The Celtics have more question marks entering the season. Gordon Hayward is now in Charlotte. Kemba Walker is out because of a knee injury. So we think it could be a slow start in Beantown. The Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 8 of the previous 10 matchups and are 5-2 ATS the L7. They handle their business in the opener. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 7* on MIAMI

The Heat will open this season where last season ended, that being Orlando, which of course hosted the NBA bubble. It won’t be the same arena where they lost to the Lakers in the NBA Finals in October, but the visit should still evoke memories. We like Miami to win tonight, though the money line appears to be the better option than the spread (which is rising). The Heat should again be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference and while they’ll be restricting Jimmy Butler’s minutes (he averaged 43 MPG in the Finals) early on, there are no such limitations for Miami’s young core. Avery Bradley was an offseason acquisition, coming over from the Lakers. Orlando did not make any real changes in the offseason after finishing 8th in the East. They are probably going to battle with the likes of division rivals Atlanta and Washington for spots in the new ‘play-in’ scenarios this year. Though Miami wasn’t favored all that often during its playoff run, they have covered five straight as chalk. They’ve also beaten the Magic three straight times. Play on MIAMI

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This is an 8* on LAKERS 

Though we’re projecting both LA teams to fare quite well this season, the clear call on Opening Night is to take the Lakers. The consensus view is that the Lakers are now a better team than when they won the NBA Finals a scant two months ago. Looking at the roster, it’s difficult to argue with that assessment. Valuable additions such as Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell and Marc Gasol make the Lakers a deeper team. It’s easy to “fall in love” with what Talen Horton-Tucker did in the preseason. Even though they just won the NBA Championship, LeBron and company will want to remind the league that they are the team to beat. The Clippers are a bit of a mess right now with the Kawhi Leonard situation seeming like a real distraction. They have a new coach in Ty Lue. It’s not like Doc Rivers was a bad coach, so problems with this team may run deeper than coaching. The teams split four regular season meetings last year, one of them in the bubble. The Lakers won the last two. Give me the favorite to win on Opening Night. Play on LA LAKERS 

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This is a 10* on MIA

Miami isn’t going down without a fight -- that is if they go down at all! As we said prior to Game 5 - “if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch.” We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. By pulling the upset in Game 5, the Heat now have a 15-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 14-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. We said to bank on them shooting better in Game 5 than they did in Game 4 (when they finished with a 42.7 FG%) and they did, finishing at 42.9% from three-point range. (They were above 50% overall in both Games 2 and 3). Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He’s had a combined 28 points and 11 rebounds since returning. But of course it has been Jimmy Butler “carrying the load” with those great individual efforts in Games 3 (40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists) and 5 (35-12-11). At one point in Game 5, the Lakers were shooting 56.3% and still losing. Now Anthony Davis is banged up. All the pressure is on the Lakers. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami is down to their “last proverbial out.” It’s win or go home time as they trail the Lakers 3-1 in the series. But if there’s one thing we’ve learned this postseason, it’s that the Heat are a resilient bunch. We saw it in Game 3 when they won outright as a 9-point dog, 115-104. Game 4 was “close” too; or at least Miami covered again thanks to a made 3-pointer from Tyler Herro with 1.1 seconds left. That leaves the Heat with a 14-4-1 ATS playoff record and they are 13-6 straight up as well. They’ve been beaten in back to back games just one time during this run, that being Games 1 and 2 of this series. Bam Adebayo is now back after missing Games 2 and 3. He had 15 points and 7 rebounds in Game 4. Of course, Jimmy Butler had that great individual effort in Game 3 with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Bank on the Heat shooting better than they did in Game 4 when they finished with a 42.7 FG%. (They were above 50% the previous two games). This might very well turn out to be the last game of the NBA bubble/season. But the Heat, who haven’t failed to cover in B2B games the entire playoffs, won’t go down without a fight. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Turns out that people were writing off Miami a little earlier than they should have. As a 9-point underdog, the Heat won Game 3 outright, 115-104. They were led by Jimmy Butler’s triple double of 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. That’s just a tremendous individual effort in the wake of the injuries to both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Neither of those two are guaranteed to return for Game 4 (though Adebayo has said “he hopes to”). Nevertheless, even without Adebayo and Dragic, Miami starters outscored their Lakers brethren 89-51 in Game 3. The Heat have shot better than 50% overall the L2 games, so they’re pretty locked in offensively right now. As we’ve talked about before, there’s a lot of talent on hand for coach Erik Spoelstra, such as Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson and Jae Crowder. All three of those players were in double figures in Game 3. For the Lakers, beyond LeBron James and Anthony Davis, there isn’t exactly a ton of talent depth. Though the Lakers have not dropped two straight in any playoff series so far, it is Miami that owns the better ATS record (13-4-1) this postseason and, while the number is down from Game 3, they are still getting too many points here. LA is just 2-8-1 ATS the L11 times they have been off an ATS loss. We never stopped believing that the Heat could compete in this series and taking the points is the way to go for Game 4! Play on MIAMI

This is a 10* on MIA

Miami got blown out in Game 1. Along the way, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic and Jimmy Butler all got hurt. Butler will play in Game 2 but the other two are officially listed as doubtful. So basically everyone is going to write off the Heat. We will not. While injuries obviously do matter, this number is far off from where it was in Game 1 when a LOT of bettors were taking the points. If Miami does lose Game 2, it will be the first time they’ve lost consecutive games in the playoffs. The Lakers are 7-2-1 ATS L10 games, but several of those wins have come by single digits. This play is classic “zig zag theory” as the previous game loser was blown out and now getting more points to work with in the next game. Given all the hype that existed around Miami less than 48 hours ago, we believe it foolish to simply write them off after one bad loss. Their 2-3 zone can keep them in this one. Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro are a pair of 3-point specialists that can help Jimmy Butler with the offense. The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS off an ATS loss including 3-0 in the playoffs. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami failed in its first try to put away Boston, uncharacteristically blowing a double digit lead. The game swung pretty dramatically in the third quarter when the Celtics outscored the Heat 41-25. Miami’s three-point shooting for the game (19.4%) was dreadful as it’s been now for the last 13 quarters of the series (below 25%!). Expect the Heat to rediscover their touch from downtown Sunday. As we know, the Heat have not lost two in a row since the playoffs began. They’ve only been beaten in regulation twice, both times in this series, in 14 games. Off a double digit loss, they are 9-3 SU this season. While we won’t predict the Heat win straight up here, it’s very likely that they will and thus finish off the series. Take the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DEN

For a third straight series, Denver finds itself down three games to one. Before this year’s playoffs, no team in history had ever come back from multiple 3-1 series deficits to win a series. Only a handful of teams had ever come back from one 3-1 series deficit. Of course, you could say Denver has the Lakers “right where they want them.” Since losing Game 1, the Nuggets have played LA tough with the two losses coming by a total of eight points (six and two). While they’re 0-3 SU in Game 4’s this postseason, they are obviously perfect in Game 5’s and 6-0 SU overall from Game 5 on. They are also 8-1 ATS when down in the series this postseason and that record could be 9-1 if you got the Nuggets at +6.5 on Thursday. Denver has shot the ball very well in this series, including right around 52% the last two games. In Game 4, the Lakers had tremendous advantages in both second chance points and free throw attempts, but those kinds of disparities are not something they should expect again. Take the points. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

With a win tonight, Miami moves on to the NBA Finals and a likely matchup with former teammate LeBron James and the Lakers. Don’t worry about the fact that the Heat are underdogs tonight. People have been underrating this team ever since the season restarted. They’ve gone 11-2 SU in the playoffs with one of those losses coming in overtime. They are also 11-2 ATS. After falling behind early in each of the first three games, Miami largely controlled Game 4 wire to wire. They did so despite shooting just 42.9% and 10 of 37 from three-point range. They’ll shoot better tonight, even as they are unlikely to get 37 points against from rookie Tyler Herro. That they continue to be the underdog is a little ridiculous and we’ll gladly take the points. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on MIA

Game 3 of this series marked the first loss in regulation for Miami since the playoffs began. While they’ve had a “nasty habit” of falling behind in games, the Heat still lead this Eastern Conference Finals 2 games to 1 over Boston. We see no way that the Heat don’t improve upon their shooting from the last game as they sank just 12 of 44 three-point attempts and finished with a 38.8 overall FG%. Despite all that, they were still within five points in the final minute. Obviously, having lost just two games since the playoffs started, the Heat have yet to drop two in a row. The last time they suffered back to back losses was right before the playoffs began, in the final two seeding games, neither of which they really put forth much effort in. The extra rest the teams got between Games 3 and 4 is interesting. Miami is 12-3 ATS the L3 seasons when playing with three or more days rest. Boston hasn’t won two straight since opening the last round 2-0 vs. Toronto. We don’t see Miami falling behind by double digits again, so taking the points is the way to go tonight in an obvious bounce back spot. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Given how their last two series have gone, maybe the Nuggets have the Lakers “right where they want them.” No strangers to trailing in these playoffs, Denver got blown out in Game 1 of the WCF, losing 126-114. Of course, they were blown out even worse by the Clippers in Game 1 of the last round (120-97) and still came back to win that series in seven games. They are the first team in league history to win two series in the same postseason in which they trailed 3-1. Not only did Denver bounce back from a Game 1 blowout to win the Clippers series, they took Game 2 outright, 110-101. We’ll definitely grab the points here as the Nuggets are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in the series this postseason. Since falling behind Utah 3 games to 1 in the first round, they’ve covered six straight in the role. The Lakers shot very well from 3-point land in Game 1 (42.3%), which is much higher than their season average. They can’t count on that happening again. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on DENVER

Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON

This is a 10* on HOUSTON

A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER

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This is an 8* on DENVER

The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE

AAA

This is a 10* on DENVER

The Nuggets have quickly gone from favorites to underdogs in this series as they’ve lost the last two games by a combined 56 points. If that sounds bad, well it is. But it's not over yet for Denver as they did win Game 1 (in overtime) and a win here would even the series back up. You have to think the Nuggets are going to shoot better than they did in Game 3. They made just 37.5% of their total attempts including only 12 of 38 three-pointers. The big story was the return of Mike Conley for Utah as he made seven threes on his way to a 27-point game. The Jazz have been somewhat inconsistent on offense during their time in the bubble as they definitely miss 2nd leading scorer Bogdanovic. Now it's Denver hoping for a return (Gary Harris) on Sunday as they look to move to 4-0 ATS the last four times they have been trailing in a playoff series. Utah is just 4-15-2 ATS the last 21 times it has been a favorite and they’re just 2-6 ATS coming off an ATS win. Play on DENVER

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

After upsetting the Lakers in Game 1, Portland got run out of the gym in Game 2. They were down 30 after three quarters and lost 111-88 in what was easily their worst showing in the NBA bubble. Previous to that, the Blazers had lost only twice and those two losses were by a total of nine points. After scoring at least 124 in all but one seeding game, they’ve been held to an average of 94 points/game by the Lakers. We like them to bounce back in Game 3 and at the very least keep it close. Game 2 aside, the Lakers have not played all that well in the bubble as they are just 2-8 against the spread with six outright defeats. Offensive efficiency is way down, especially when LeBron James is off the court. They have just two wins by more than three points since the restart and have failed to hit 100 four different times. A second straight blowout seems unlikely, so grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland shocked a lot of people by beating the Lakers 100-93 in Game 1, but not us. This team came into the bubble needing to win almost every game and that’s exactly what they have done. They’ve gone 8-2 in their 10 games with the only two losses coming by a combined nine points. That the Blazers were able to win Game 1 despite a poor offensive night has to scare the Lakers. Portland shot just 39.2% Tuesday night, a far cry from the multiple 124+ point efforts we’ve seen from them in Orlando. As for the Lakers, they are 1-8 ATS in the bubble and struggling to make shots. They haven’t even hit 100 four different times. Their shooting percentage and offensive efficiency, particularly when LeBron James is off the court, has been woeful. We just don’t see how LA is going to win by more than what the oddsmakers are calling for here, if they even win at all tonight. Besides James and Anthony Davis, the rest of the Lakers combined for just 42 points on 32.1% shooting in Game 1. Since the restart, the top seed has ONE win by more than three points. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is an 8* on HOUSTON

Houston was our Game of the Month on Tuesday and they came through with flying colors, clobbering Oklahoma City by a score of 123-108 and it wasn’t even that close as the Rockets led by 21 going into the fourth. This despite not having the services of Russell Westbrook, but we projected James Harden to have a big game and that’s exactly what happened as “The Beard” delivered a 37-point effort. He’s certainly capable of scoring even more than that and we think he will in Game 2. Even without Westbrook, Houston is the better team here. The Thunder overachieved both before and after the restart, but this could be a quick series if they’re not careful. You’ll notice that OKC is now the underdog after opening as the slightest favorite for Game 1. While priced more appropriately, we still don’t like the Thunder’s chances in this one as Gallinari had a career-high 29 points in Game 1 and that didn’t matter. His chances of matching that number this afternoon are slim at best. The Rockets are simply the better team. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Philadelphia lost Game 1 109-101 and failed to cover as 6.5-point underdogs. All told, it wasn’t that disappointing a performance as the Sixers led going into the 4th quarter. That is when they went cold. The good news is they held Boston to just 42% shooting and it took every bit of Jayson Tatum’s career playoff highs of 32 points and 13 rebounds to get the Celtics the ‘W.’ While the 76ers are without Ben Simmons, they still should compete in this series and we like them plus the points in Game 2. Late in Game 1, Gordon Hayward suffered a severe ankle sprain, meaning Boston will be without him for likely four weeks. That’s a big loss. The Celtics are not a deep team. Including Hayward, they have just six players that rate better than average in terms of RPM.  They are just 1-4 ATS off the last five ATS wins and we’re going “zig zag” here. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

Houston will be without Russell Westbrook for an indefinite period of time, but let’s not forget that Harden fellow and what he’s capable of doing. The Rockets did lose their last three games, but really had nothing to play for and that should be taken into account. Before that, they’d started the bubble 4-1 straight up and against the spread. Oklahoma City went 4-4 in its eight games as well, albeit in much different fashion. They alternated wins and losses the entire way, meaning not one time did they win OR lose back to back games. They are hoping that pattern continues as it would mean a win here. But we feel differently as the Rockets are being undervalued because of the Westbrook absence. Certainly that matters, but Harden has averaged 35.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists in the bubble with a 53.2 FG%. Two other Rockets have had 40+ point games this year, one of the Austin Rivers’ whose career-high 41 point effort came in the bubble. Houston has enough to get the job done and Oklahoma City hasn’t really had all of its pieces together here in Orlando with Schroeder missing time and Adams hurt. Chris Paul has a hand injury worth monitoring as well. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is just 3-5 since the restart while the Clippers have gone 5-3. It’s a tough break that a team as talented as the Mavericks fell to the 7-seed and drew a first round matchup with Los Angeles. But it is also a bit of a “tough draw” for the Clippers. The Mavs are one of the top offensive teams in the league and pose a threat that other potential first round opponents (like Utah or Oklahoma City) would not have. These teams met on August 6th and while LA won 126-111, it was a tie game with just over six minutes remaining. That’s with the Clippers shooting exceptionally well and the Mavs having an “off game” at the offensive end. Luka Doncic is averaging a triple double in the bubble with 32 points/game. The Mavericks have averaged 125 points/game since returning and that makes them a “tough out” as an underdog. The spread was only 3.5 when these teams met 11 days ago. Nothing has really changed significantly for either side since then, so the dog screams VALUE. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

It’s a battle of backups Wednesday but we’re counting on the Sixers showing a little pride in this early evening matchup against the Raptors. It’s not like Philadelphia has played poorly its last two games, where they have been almost entirely without the services of Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid. Simmons’ season is now over while Embiid was hurt early in the 124-121 loss to Portland Sunday night. Yesterday saw Philly compete for 3+ quarters against a highly motivated Suns squad. This is a lot of points to lay with a Raptors team that has nothing to play for as they are locked into the Eastern Conference’s second seed. Coming off an impressive win against Milwaukee on Monday, their level of motivation for this one can certainly be called into question. Their last four victories have come by an average of just 7.5 points/game. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is an 6* on PHOENIX

The Suns have been the hottest team in the league since the restart. They’re 5-0 SU/ATS, which has them on the cusp of the Western Conference’s play-in scenario. Finishing 8th and not 9th has its advantages in that you only have to win once (as opposed to twice) to make the playoffs. But right now the Suns just need to keep winning as they are 10th, a full game behind 9th place Portland (won Sunday) and 1.5 games back of 8th place Memphis (lost yesterday) They’ve already beaten four teams with .500 or better records here in Orlando, the latest being Miami by a score of 119-112 - as a 4-point favorite - on Saturday. They were led by Devin Booker’s 35 points. We have to admit that it was a bit eye-opening to see the Suns open as the favorite here and get bet up. But they’ll have more motivation than the Thunder, who also are at the disadvantage of having played yesterday. Oklahoma City won Sunday, 121-103, but don’t put a ton of stock into that as they played Washington (worst team in the bubble). They also made a season-high 18 three-pointers, shooting that won’t be matched today. Unlike all the other teams competing for the 8-seed, Phoenix can claim to have a positive net efficiency rating for the year. This team has the momentum and you should expect them to win Monday afternoon. Play on PHOENIX

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