This is a 9* on DENVER

We think Denver is the right side in this Western Conference NBA matchup. The Nuggets will be looking to wrap up a perfect 5-0 homestand tonight when they host Portland. The Blazers have not been good on the road so far, losing six of seven while being outscored by roughly 8.7 points per game. So laying the points doesn’t bother us. Not with Denver leading the league in scoring defense. Through 12 games, the Nuggets are allowing an average 98.3 points/game. There have been only three times they’ve allowed triple digits and if you take away the one time Utah scored 122 (it was the second night of a back to back for Denver), then the defensive numbers look even more phenomenal. At home, the Nuggets are giving up just 93.4 points/game. Nikola Jokic has recorded a triple double in the last two games he’s played. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on BOS

Cleveland is 8-5 and coming off a 20-point win, but we’re still a bit skeptical. The 20-point win last night was against the Pistons, who are one of the NBA’s worst teams. The Cavs are now 9-3-1 ATS overall, tied with the Warriors for the best mark in the league. But they’ve pulled out quite a few narrow wins so far, including three in a row by three points or less to start the month. We’re about to find out how “for real” Cleveland is as they host Boston tonight. The Celtics also won last night, needing OT to get by Milwaukee 122-113. It was their fourth win in five games. The Cavs do have the better record coming into tonight’s game, but oddsmakers still don’t respect them that much as they are underdogs at home. We’re going to lay the short number with Boston. Though they had to go to overtime to get the win last night, Cleveland is probably in worse shape heading into the second game of the back to back. They’re missing Colllin Sexton (who averaged 23.3 points/game last year), Kevin Love, Lauri Markkanen and possibly Lamar Stevens. Boston is pretty healthy coming into this game, save for the Jaylen Brown injury. Play on BOSTON

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This is a 10* on DAL

Dallas is off a loss while San Antonio is off a win. But with a 7-4 record, the Mavs are having the better overall start to the year. The Mavs went down in Chicago Wednesday night, losing 117-107 as they could not keep up in the second half. But they’d won three in a row prior to that loss with one of the wins coming here in San Antonio. The win was by a single point, 109-108, but Dallas didn’t even shoot the ball well. Expect them to tonight. The Spurs picked up just their fourth win of the year when they beat Sacramento 136-117 Wednesday night. They hit 18 threes in the win, something that you won’t see them do again anytime soon. The Spurs have yet to win two straight games this year and they lost to OKC the most recent time they were coming off a victory. San Antonio is actually 0-2 vs. Dallas this year as they also lost to them by five points back on Oct 28. They did cover the spread in both losses, but that won’t be the case here as the Mavericks have yet to lose two straight games this season. It all adds up to a third win over the Spurs and this time Dallas covers. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on LA LAKERS

It’s been quite the disappointing start to the season for the LA Lakers, who are just 5-5 straight up and 2-8 against the spread. They’ve lost their last two games. Not only did LeBron James not play on Saturday, but teammate Anthony Davis (sprained thumb) was on the court for only seven minutes. The result was a 105-90 loss to Portland. It wasn’t even that close as the Lakers trailed by 31 going into the fourth quarter. We were happy as we were on the Blazers. But here we’re going with the Lakers. Yes, they played a bad game the other night and still won’t have James. But they are facing a Charlotte team that just got blown out last night in this building by the Clippers. Charlotte is 0-4 straight up and against the spread in its last four games and this is their third road game in the last four nights. That’s a bad situation. There have been multiple games this year where the Lakers blew a big lead and lost. We bring that up to illustrate that they should have a better record. Even without James (and maybe Davis?), we’re confident they can down the Hornets. Play on LA LAKERS

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is playing the second night of a back to back on Saturday, but may be catching a huge break in that the Lakers could be without both of its superstars in tonight’s game. We know LeBron James won’t play. James suffered an abdominal strain in Tuesday’s game vs. the Rockets. He missed the Lakers last game, which was a loss to Oklahoma City. That game saw Anthony Davis sprain his thumb. Davis is questionable for tonight. Look for the Blazers, who won by four against Indiana on Friday, to take advantage of their banged up visitors. They are a different team where their record is 4-1. (They are 0-4 on the road). Damian Lillard is having an awful start to the year. But the fact that Portland still won even with him shooting 2 for 13 last night is probably a good thing. There’s just no way Lillard won’t start to shoot the ball better. The Lakers are not a terribly deep team. Without James and Davis, they’re pretty bad. LA’s ATS record is 2-7, worst in the league. Even if Davis plays, we don’t see them covering this number. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on CHARLOTTE

The Hornets and Kings meet tonight in Sacramento with the home team coming in as a slight favorite. The Kings are 4-4 overall and coming off a 112-99 win against New Orleans. Charlotte is 5-4 but has lost its last two games, one by three at home to Cleveland and the other by 22 at Golden State. We like the visitors in this one for a variety of reasons. One is that they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last five times they’ve played Sacramento. Two is that half of the Kings wins this year have come against New Orleans, who is 1-8 and in last place in the West. Their win on Wednesday marked the first time all year that the Kings won a game by more than four points. Third is that Charlotte is 17-5 ATS the last 22 times they’ve been coming off a double digit loss. It was a season low 92 points that they scored in their last game. Expect a much better performance tonight. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is a 10* on MIA

Miami is catching Boston in the second night of a back to back, a situation that clearly benefits the home team. But it’s not as if the Heat need much additional “help” right now. They are 6-1 with the best point differential in the NBA and all six wins have come by 13 points or greater. The Celtics have been somewhat of a mess in recent days due to in-fighting. Reports are that the players hashed it out last night before downing Orlando 92-79, but we’ll see about that. It’s a big jump in class from facing the Magic (arguably the league’s worst team) to the Heat (who have been better than everybody to this point). Miami is holding teams to 98.9 points/game, the fewest in the league. In six of its eight games, Boston has shot worse than 44% overall. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

It’s been a poor start to the season for NBA Champion Milwaukee. Losers of three straight, the Bucks head to Detroit Tuesday night to face the Pistons. The good news here is that few teams are in sorrier shape right now than the one hailing from the Motor City. The Pistons are 1-5 and just lost by 26 to the Nets, who had previously been struggling just as the Bucs have. We’ll gladly lay the short number in this one as this is where Giannis and company should right the ship. The Bucks have dominated the Pistons in recent years, winning 14 straight meetings. We understand that the Bucks are playing short handed right now. But even with “just Giannis,” they’ve got way more in the tank than does Detroit, who has only gotten one game out of top draft pick Cade Cunningham thus far and he went 1 for 8 from the field. The Pistons' one win came against Orlando, who is the only team in the East that might finish with a worse record. All five times that Detroit has been an underdog, they’ve lost by at least six points. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

After an embarrassing effort in the first game of the season, Dallas has put together two straight impressive wins. They beat Houston in the home opener Tuesday, 116-106. But they failed to cover the 10.5 point spot. Here the number is a lot more manageable as they are set to host San Antonio. Coach Jason Kidd remains a somewhat questionable hire for the Mavericks, however the players seem to be working well with him. A decision was made to play EVERYONE (all 15 players) against the Rockets. The Spurs have had a different leading scorer in every game but just one win. That win came in the opener against Orlando. The Spurs have since lost to the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers in a trio of fairly close encounters. We can see why some might think SA will keep this game close, but look for Dallas to shoot the ball much better than they have so far. At barely over 40%, the Mavs have the lowest FG% in the league right now. That is not going to continue with the likes of Luka Doncic on the roster. Lay the points here as the Spurs have allowed 121 and 125 points in their previous two games. We've got them ranked as one of the worst teams in the league. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Save for a disastrous effort last Thursday in Miami, the Bucks have been every bit as good as expected to start the new NBA season. The NBA Champs are 3-1 with wins over the Nets, Spurs and Pacers. The last two wins came on the road. Now they return to Milwaukee to take on the upstart Timberwolves. This is a big step up in class for what is still a young Minnesota team. So far they’ve faced New Orleans (who is without Zion Williamson) twice and Houston. All three games came at home. They lost to the Pelicans on Monday, failing to score 100 points for the second straight game. We cannot see where they get the necessary offense to stay with the Bucks tonight. The Bucks have averaged 122.3 points/game in their three wins. We’ve seen more “small ball” recently with Brook Lopez out of the lineup. The Bucks have covered six straight home games when you go back to last year’s championship run. Minnesota was a poor 10-26 in their 36 road games last season. Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Though this is the second night of a back to back for the Nuggets, we expect them to come out and play hard Tuesday on TNT. It was an embarrassing result for them last night as they finished with just 87 points and lost to the lowly Cavs. Tonight they face a team at the opposite end of the NBA hierarchy, that being Utah, who is off to a 2-0 start. The Jazz have covered the spread in both wins. However, keep in mind that the two teams they’ve faced so far: Oklahoma City and Sacramento. The Jazz are well-rested coming into tonight as they have not played since Friday. But the thing with that is they are 0-6 against the spread the previous six times they’ve played a game on three or more days' rest. No one on the Nuggets, besides Nikola Jokic, scored more than 12 points last night. The team shot 9 of 38 from three-point range and just 40% percent overall. We expect across the board improvement from them tonight and do not believe Utah’s rest advantage will play a significant role. If anything, the Jazz could be a little bit rusty. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on POR

Portland is off an impressive 134-105 win against Phoenix the other night. In case you forgot, the Suns were in the NBA Finals last July. Now the Blazers head to LA hoping to end a six-game losing streak to the Clippers. The Clippers are not what they once were as Kawhi Leonard is out indefinitely and their record is 0-2. They lost to the Warriors in the first game and the Grizzlies in the second. Both games were close (decided by six points or less) but that doesn’t help if you’re the favorite as the Clippers are tonight. Plus while the two games have ended up close, both times the Clippers found themselves down by double digits. They trailed by as many as 16 in both contests. Portland is averaging 127.5 points/game which is just too many for the Clippers to overcome when laying points. In the early going, LA is shooting only 43.8% from the field. Grab the points. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GSW

Golden State is 2-0 after sweeping the two LA teams. They upset the Lakers 121-114 on Opening Night. Then they defeated the Clippers 115-113 on Thursday. Two close wins, but in the Clippers game they did lead by as many as 19 at one juncture. Steph Curry made 10 three pointers in that game and scored 45 points. We’re starting to see “the Warriors of old.” While we aren’t saying they are back to that championship level, they are certainly better than a Sacramento team that hasn’t made the playoffs in 15 years. The Kings did win their first game, 124-121 over Portland, but couldn’t hold off Utah in a 110-101 loss on Friday. This is a situation where we simply believe one team (Golden State) is much better than the other and we’re getting an early season discount. Play on GOLDEN STATE

This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The Nets will look to rebound from a poor Opening Night performance when they travel to Philadelphia on Friday. The Sixers are a mess right now with the ongoing Ben Simmons drama. Of course, Brooklyn has its own share of drama with Kyrie Irving. But they can still call upon both Kevin Durant and James Harden. That may have not been enough when facing Milwaukee Tuesday, but we expect them to play far better here. The 76ers did beat the Pelicans by 20 on Wednesday. But tonight they are unlikely to shoot the ball as well as they did in that first game when they connected on over half their field goal attempts, including 52% from three. Really, this play boils down to two simple things: we think the Nets are better and also can’t see them starting 0-2. They were underdogs Tuesday. Tonight they are favorites. They are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks flew their way into the Eastern Conference Finals last season before eventually bowing out to Milwaukee in six games. After hiring Nate McMillian to be the head coach on March 1st, no team in the East had a better won-loss record than Atlanta’s 27-11. They also won 23 of their final 29 home games. The entire core of that team has been brought back and there have been some minor additions. What made the Hawks’ late season run so impressive is that they had several key players injured. Now fully healthy, we expect them to challenge for a top three spot in the standings. Can’t say the same for Dallas out in the Western Conference. Jason Kidd was a questionable coaching hire in our view. The Mavericks did not get out of the first round last season and are no better on paper for 2021-22. It’s only the first game of the season, but one motivating factor for the Hawks is they lost both games to the Mavs last year. Both losses occurred before McMillian was hired. Atlanta is 18-4 ATS its last 22 games as a home favorite. It’s a small number tonight. Lay it! Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on HOUSTON

The Houston Rockets are not expected to be all that competitive for the 2021-22 season. Most prognostications have them and Oklahoma City as the likely two worst teams in the Western Conference. But should Minnesota, another team that’s not very good, be laying this many points in a season opener? Probably not. The Timberwolves have made the playoffs only once since 2003-04. While they did improve some after a coaching change, they still ranked near the bottom of the league defensively last year. They brought some new pieces to help them on the defensive end, but the problem is those players are liabilities at the offensive end. Other than Karl-Anthony Towns, there just aren’t many good two-way players on this roster. The T’wolves were only favored in 11 games last season and lost five of them. Their scoring differential when favored was only +1.5 per game. So they are not a team you’d want to lay points with. Houston is young and basically playing with “house money” coming into the new season. They had a winning (ATS) record as a road underdog last season and are capable of pulling the upset here. Play on HOUSTON

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This is a 10* on PHX

The NBA Finals have taken a dire turn for Phoenix. Once up 2-0, they are now down 3-2. This would be their first three-game losing skid since January, which is also the only other one (three-game skid) that they’ve been on all season. It’s a must-win in Game 6 at Milwaukee and we will be grabbing the points. For starters, the Suns are 14-5 ATS coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. They were four-point favorites back in Game Five. This is just the second time in the postseason that the Suns have been trailing in the series. The Bucks are 6-17 ATS when on a three-game win streak and 0-3 ATS off a straight up win as an underdog. Phoenix has shot 50% from the field in this series, which is pretty impressive. It also makes the series deficit that more shocking. In the last two games, the Suns have shot 53%. They were 68.4% from three in the last game. Devin Booker, off two straight 40+ point games, should get more help from teammates tonight. For Milwaukee, Middleton and Holiday will probably not combine for 56 points again (that’s what they went for in Game Five). Facing elimination for the first time, you know Phoenix is going to fight to the end. The last two losses were by just 10 total points. The underdog will cover in this one. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

An improbable Game 4 victory saw the Bucks take nearly 20 more shots from the field. That was the key as they were outshot 51.3% to 40.2%, but still won 109-103. Not only did they win, they covered the 4.5-point spread as well. But now it's back to Phoenix. The home team is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in this series and we believe that trend is going to continue in Game 5 Saturday night. The Suns should have won Game 4. Devin Booker was on fire the entire game, but was eventually cooled off by foul trouble. We don’t see a player of Booker’s caliber getting into foul trouble at home. Chris Paul should play better in Game 5. He had just 10 points and five turnovers in Game 4. Kris Middleton went for 40 for the Bucks, but as we’ve seen throughout the playoffs, he’s better at home. The Suns made only 16 of 54 three-point attempts in the two games at Milwaukee. They made 20 threes in Game 2, the last time here. Milwaukee has not won or even covered a game in Phoenix the last three seasons. The Bucks really aren’t a great road team (just 25-22 SU) and they are just 3-7 ATS as underdogs this year. This is only the second time in the entire playoff run that the Suns have lost two in a row. Their one and only three game losing streak this season occurred back in January. We can’t see them losing a third straight game here. Lay the number. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks’ backs are against the wall here as they are down 0-2 in the best of seven series. But they now get to be the home team. This is Milwaukee’s first time hosting an NBA Finals game since 1974! So expect a “rocking atmosphere” with Giannis and company delivering a win. Antetokounmpo did all he could in Game 2 with 42 points. Obviously he’s not bothered by the injury. He needs more help from his teammates and should get it at home. As we’ve been saying throughout the Bucks playoff run, both Middleton and Holiday always seem to shoot better at home. They were a combined 12 for 37 in Game 2, so improvement from them is a virtual guarantee. Phoenix also won’t make 20 three pointers again as they did in the last game. Dario Sarkic has been lost for the remainder of the series and Torrey Craig, a key bench player for the Suns, got injured in the second half of Game 2. Milwaukee obviously cannot afford to lose here as they would be in an 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever gotten out of. Fortunate for them is they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in home playoff games. The Bucks may be 0-5 SU and ATS the last five meetings with the Suns, but four of the games were in Phoenix. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on ATL

The insane injury bug that has seemingly bitten every single team in these playoffs has struck again, this time claiming Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. Milwaukee had been the one team to stay pretty much injury free this postseason, but now things have really gone sideways for them. They were terrible in Game 4, especially after Antetokounmpo went down. They were outscored by 14 after the injury and ended up losing 110-88. With Antetokounmpo doubtful for Game 5 and his entire future status in doubt, there is simply no way we could take the Bucks in this spot. Atlanta has proven they can win without Trae Young, doing so by 22 in the last game. Young is more likely to play tonight than Antetokounmpo and his return would be a real nice luxury to have. The Hawks are 3-0 SU and ATS this season off a game where they allowed 90 or less points. Lou Williams was tremendous starting in place of Young as he scored 21 points and had eight assists in Game 4. The Hawks are also 15-5-1 ATS off their last 21 double digit wins. Getting points against an Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team seems like a steal, even if Young does not play. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on PHX

The Suns have not lost two in a row since the Lakers series. So coming off the loss in Game 5, we’ll take them here in their second attempt to close out the Clippers. Digging themselves into a massive early hole (trailed 20-5 at the outset) did Phoenix no favors Monday night. That poor start basically decided the game. It was the first time in the series that the Suns trailed at the half. The first positive bit of news to report is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season when off a double digit loss. They are 19-7 ATS off a loss of any kind. It is unlikely that Chris Paul and Jae Crowder will combine to go 0 for 10 from behind the three point line again. That’s what they did in Game 5. Similarly, the Clippers probably won’t shoot 54.8% again like they did in Game 5. Paul George went for 41 points, his playoff high. The Clippers are definitely more banged up at this point of the series with Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and now Ivica Zubac all injured. LA is 3-6 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. Our call is that the Suns end the Western Conference Finals tonight. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Atlanta is now 3-0 in Game 1’s during this playoff run. All three wins have come as underdogs. They were +8 for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals here in Milwaukee, a game they came from behind to win 116-113. Trae Young rebounded nicely from a dismal Game 7 against the 76ers. He had 48 points Wednesday night. The Hawks have been underdogs in nine straight games. Tonight will make it 10. They are an impressive 6-3 SU those past nine games, but have never won three straight games, which is what they are looking to do this evening. But we can’t see the Bucks losing both home games to open the series. So we’ll lay the points. Even though the Hawks have won five of their last six on the road, they are still just a .500 team (for the year) away from home. The Bucks are 31-11 SU at home and were 5-0 in the playoffs before dropping Game 1. They were also on a 13-game win streak at home going back to the regular season. Young can’t score 48 in every game and the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic seems significant as he went just 1 for 6 in Game 1. Bogdanovic, not Young, has been the team’s best 3-point shooter this season. Expect the Bucks to shoot way better from three in this game (they were just 8 of 36 in Game 1), especially Kris Middleton (who was 0 for 9). Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS

Both Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested and the Suns are up 2-0 heading back to LA. We are also 2-0 in the series. Phoenix was the play for Game 1 and they covered the spread thanks to a pair of late Devin Booker free throws. We took the Clippers in Game 2 and that probably should have been an outright win, but we’ll take the cover. The finish to Game 2 was wild with the Clippers allowing a game-winning alley-oop in the final second. For the third straight series, they are down 0-2. In the first round, they won Game 3 in Dallas 118-108. In the second round, they won Game 3 at home, 132-106 over Utah. Going back to Game 7 of the first round, they’ve won four straight at home - all by double digits. The season is basically on the line tonight. Chris Paul may be back for the Suns, which is why the line has shifted towards the Suns after initially flipping to the Clippers -1. But Paul will have rust to shake off and bettors are overreacting to the news. Reggie Jackson has stepped up for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard out as he’s averaging 23 points over the last four games. To us, this is a very obvious bounce back situation as the Clippers probably should have won Game 2. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS when trailing in the series during these playoffs. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS its last 10 visits to the Staples Center to face the Clippers. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

So it is the Clippers vs. the Suns in the Western Conference Finals. But no Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul in Game 1. This is the Clippers’ 1st ever Conference Finals appearance. It’s the first for the Suns since 2010 and they haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1993. So we’re guaranteed some “new blood” out of the Western Conference this year. We were shocked that the Clippers beat the Jazz two straight times without Leonard. They trailed by 25 in the third quarter Friday. While LA got just one day off between series, Phoenix hasn’t played in a week. The Suns looked very impressive in sweeping Denver, winning all four games comfortably. They’ve won and covered seven in a row. It’s a shame that Paul is out, but we believe the Suns still get it done at home in Game 1. The Clippers lost the first two games of both prior series. We don’t see them continuing to post the best offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs. That’s because Phoenix allowed only 100.8 points/game in the first two rounds. The Clippers don’t have Serge Ibaka either and are 3-7-1 ATS off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

The home team has won all six games in this series. We expect the trend to continue in Game 7. That means Brooklyn advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even having to go without Kyrie Irving, the Nets should put up a lot of points at home. The three games at Milwaukee have seen them average only 89.3 points/game. But at home they’ve averaged 118.0 and one of those was without Irving and also James Harden making just 1 of 10 field goal attempts. We trust Kevin Durant to lead the way Saturday. He is averaging 33.3 points/game in the series. Harden shot a lot better in Game 6 and finished with 16 points. He’s played 40+ minutes in both games since returning and we’re gonna predict a series high in points of Harden here in Game 7. On the flip side, look for Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s numbers to go down. Middleton had a game-high 38 in Game 6. He is averaging almost 31 points in the three games in Milwaukee. But that average goes down to 18.3 in Brooklyn. That’s a big difference. The Bucks crunch time play has not impressed us. They were lucky to get out to a big early lead in the last game. Brooklyn has the best player (Durant) and is at home. The Bucks’ road record is just 22-19 SU and they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season. If you include the regular season, the home team is 9-0 in head to head meetings between these teams in 2020-21. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is a 10* on UTAH

Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

The Bucks seemed to have all the momentum heading into Game 5. They’d won the previous two games, plus James Harden and Kyrie Irving were both hurt for Brooklyn. Harden wound up suiting up Tuesday, but he did not play well (shot 1 of 10) and Milwaukee quickly jumped out to a 29-15 lead after one quarter of play. Their lead was 16 midway through the third, which is when Kevin Durant took over. Durant turned in a game for the ages with 49-17-10. But we don’t see him doing that again in Game 6 at Milwaukee. The Nets have lost all four games in Milwaukee this season, Irving is still out and Harden clearly isn’t 100 percent. So lay the points with the home team facing elimination. The Nets scored only 83 and 96 points in Games 3 and 4 here in Milwaukee. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS

For the second series in a row, the Clippers find themselves down 0-2. There is a difference this time though. In the first round versus Dallas, those first two losses both came at home. The first two losses of the second round were both in Salt Lake City. So now, instead of having to go on the road to even things up, the Clippers can do so at home. They did lose the first three home games to Dallas, but won Game 7 here in Staples Center by a score of 126-111. We expect Kawhi Leonard to play better tonight than he did in Games 1 and 2 when he averaged just 22 points. Game 2 was a bit of a disaster as LA gave up 66 points in the first half and was down by as many as 21. But they actually rallied to take the lead in the fourth quarter. We certainly don’t see them falling behind that big in Game 3. In fact, they figure to come out quite strong given the series deficit that they are facing. Utah isn’t going to come close to matching its shooting from Game 2 (55.3 FG%). The Jazz were 20 of 39 on three-point attempts in that last game as well. The Clippers were the top three point shooting team in the NBA this year, so look for them to turn the tables Saturday. Utah has not covered any of the last four times they’ve been underdogs. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 8* on LAC

The Clippers turned in their highest scoring effort of the first round when they most needed it, winning Game 7 against Dallas 126-111. Most will view this as a disadvantage, having to start a new series basically 48 hours after winning a Game 7. But we like the Clippers as underdogs in Game 1 at Utah. Getting points, LA is 7-4 ATS this season and they’ve taken the game outright six times. We played against Utah in Game 1 of the opening round. That was the only game of the Memphis series they lost. Instead of focusing on how little time the Clippers had off between the two series, maybe we should focus more on how much time the Jazz have had off. They are 2-8 ATS since 2018-19 when having at least three days off between games. They are 0-2 ATS this season in that scenario with Game 1 vs. Memphis being the most recent instance. Mike Conley may be unavailable tonight and that would be a major blow for the home team. The two best players in this series (Leonard, George) will both be wearing road colors tonight. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is an 8* on PHILADELPHIA

Joel Embiid’s Game 1 status is up in the air, but remember that the Sixers won the series clincher against Washington without him. This line feels awfully short for a top seed playing at home. We’d say the line should be -3 before factoring in any kind of home court advantage. When these teams met three times in the regular season, the home team won all three times. Philadelphia hosted twice and won by 44 and 22. Those wins came in April too. The significance of that is that it was post-coaching change for Atlanta, which is when they got a lot better. The Hawks have lost only 11 games since Nate McMillan took over, but two of those were to the Sixers. Philadelphia scored 120 or more points in all four of its first round wins and regardless of whether Embiid plays today or not, they will be much more difficult to defend than the Knicks were (for Atlanta) in Round 1.  Speaking of defending, the Sixers gave up the second fewest number of points per possession in the league during the regular season. Atlanta has traditionally struggled in this round, going 6-17-1 ATS its last 24 games. Play on PHILADELPHIA

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

Look for Brooklyn to win Game 1 comfortably. Milwaukee is an underdog, which is rare, but it hasn’t been a good situation for them - at all. 0-4 this season - straight up and ATS - and 0-8 SU and ATS the last eight times. They’ve yet to face the Nets with Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving all suited up. We think the Bucks stock may be a bit too high after it took the minimum four games to beat the Heat in the first round. It’s not as if the Nets had much difficulty ousting Boston either. They did lose once, but that took a superhuman 50-point effort from Jayson Tatum. All four Nets wins in the first round were by double digits. They are the only team that averaged more points per game than Milwaukee in the regular season. Again, they did so despite the three All Stars not playing much together. Not surprising, Brooklyn’s scoring increased against Boston to 123.4 points/game. And it should be noted the Celtics are a pretty decent defensive team. Milwaukee is 6-16 ATS in 2020-21 following a win streak of three or more. A full week off for the Bucks is not ideal when having to deal with the Nets’ tempo. Play on BROOKLYN

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

We’re now 6-0 over the five games of this series with the Under giving us three of those wins. We also won once with the Over. We’ve played the side twice, winning with Dallas in Game 2 and the Clippers in Game 3. The Mavericks now have a 3-2 series lead after taking Game 5 by a score of 105-100. They got 42-8-14 from Luka Doncic, who has been the best player - on either team - in the series. If you’re a Clippers fan, the scary thing is to hear Doncic say “I could have played way better.” We agree that the Mavs could have shot better as a team. They made only 41.6% from the field in Game 5. The home team has yet to win a game, but we see that as likely to change in Game 6 where we like the short home dog. It’s difficult to see the home team losing six in a row in one series. Play on DALLAS

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

The Lakers appear lost offensively without Anthony Davis. They still have LeBron James and because of that most are going to expect them to force a Game 7. But we don’t. People have underrated this Suns team all season as their 45-30-2 ATS record is second best in the whole league. The Lakers’ ATS record of 33-44-1 is among the five worst in basketball. The Lakers scored a season-low 85 points in Game 5 and trailed by 30 at halftime. While it’s reasonable to assume things will be closer in Game 6, which is in LA, we don’t think the Lakers can make up the entire gap we saw in the last game. That’s even if Davis plays, which is up to the doctors. The Suns defense has been great since the start of the second half of Game 4 as the Lakers are shooting less than 40 percent. Cameron Payne has really stepped up with Chris Paul playing hurt. Devin Booker is handling the scoring. For LA, James has been settling for threes and not getting to the free throw. His supporting cast simply can’t make up for the loss of Davis. You’re seeing why this was a team that had to win a play-in game just to be part of the playoffs. Take the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies are facing elimination in Game 5 as the series moves back to Utah. It’s a tall order facing the underdogs as they’ve now got to defeat the team with the best record in the NBA three straight times, including twice on the road. But considering they did win Game 1 here in Salt Lake City, it would be foolish to write Memphis off at this point. We went with them in what turned out to be 112-109 upset in Game 1 and will do the same tonight.  Even though they’ve lost three straight, the Grizzlies have not played poorly by any means in this series. Game 2 was an obvious bounce back situation for the Jazz, but Memphis was still within six in the fourth quarter. The two games at Memphis were both competitive. Game 3 saw the Grizzlies ahead with just over four minutes to go. Game 4 saw them fight back and get as close as two points in the fourth quarter. Take the points tonight. Utah’s three point shooting in the last three games has been excellent, but will cool off. The three point shooting for Memphis should improve from the 28.6% we saw in the last game. The Grizzlies are 24-17 straight up (and 24-15 ATS) on the road in 2020-21. The Jazz are only 3-8 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA

Look for the 76ers to finish off the Wizards tonight and to do so in decided fashion. This is just a one sided series as Philadelphia is averaging 125.7 points/game and allowing only 105.3. The last two games were basically over by halftime and ended up being wins of 25 and 29 points. The Wizards have not shot well, which is essentially doom for them as they don’t play very good defense. The teams have met six times this year with Philadelphia now 6-0 straight up. They’ve scored at least 120 points in five of the six wins. Washington has been held under its season average in four of the six losses. Russell Westbrook is hobbled, which makes things even worse for the underdog. Going back to last year, the Sixers have beaten the Wizards eight straight times. They are on a 10-3-1 ATS run as road favorites coming into tonight. Washington has given little indication that they can “hang” and they are 2-10 ATS the last 12 games as a playoff dog. Play on PHILADELPHIA

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Portland is looking to avoid dropping back to back home games to Denver, which would put them in a 3-1 hole in the series. The Blazers simply have not defended well over the course of the three games, first allowing the Nuggets to shoot better than 50% overall in the two games in Denver and then 52.6% from three (20 of 38) in Game 3. But we like old “zig zag theory” to come through for Game 4 as Portland should bounce back at home. Damian Lillard, after an incredible individual effort in Game 2, made just 5 of 16 three point attempts on Thursday. He still scored 37 points mind you, but the team ended up 14 of 45 from three point land. It was the second game in this series where we saw a pretty massive discrepancy in three point shooting between the two teams. The discrepancy worked out in Portland’s favor when they won Game 1 and it’s only natural to see a swing in their favor for Game 4. Denver won’t have Will Barton active for tonight and that’s on top of missing Jamal Murray. We don’t think Austin Rivers is capable of duplicating his Game 3 effort and the Blazers should move to 9-4 ATS this season when off a loss as a favorite. Play on PORTLAND

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This is an 8* on NEW YORK

Trailing by double digits at halftime in Game 2, the Knicks appeared to be in grave danger of falling down 0-2 in this series with the Hawks. But they put the clamps down in the second half of that last game, holding Atlanta to just 35 points, and it ended up being a 101-92 New York win. Having lost the first game by only two points, Knicks’ fans probably feel as if they should be up 2-0 in the series. That it was the defense that sparked the second half comeback on Wednesday should not come as any surprise. The Knicks allowed the fewest number of points per game in the league during the regular season. They are also the league’s best ATS team with a cover rate of 65.3%, which is well out in front of everyone else. The fact they’ve covered 9 of their last 11 games as road underdogs comes in handy here as they are taking on a team that’s 11-0 straight up in its last 11 home games. The Knicks have suffered only two losses in their previous seven games and each came by just two points. Therefore, taking the points in Game 3 seems like the best option. Play on NEW YORK

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This is an 8* on MIAMI

The Heat find themselves desperately needing to win Game 3, otherwise this series will be just about over. They lost both games in Milwaukee, the first one being close (109-107 in overtime) and the second one being a blowout (132-98). Given that the Heat are down 0-2, we were a bit surprised to see this line “jump the fence” as the Bucks are now favored. It was record-setting shooting for Milwaukee on Monday as they made 22 three-pointers, the most ever by the franchise in a single playoff game. They scored 46 points in the first quarter, 78 in the first half and were ahead at one point by 36. But now the series heads to Miami and the Heat have yet to shoot well. We think they will tonight in Game 3. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are averaging just 26 points/game - combined. In the regular season, the duo averaged just over 40 points/game. The Bucks were just 20-16 straight up on the road in the regular season as opposed to 26-10 at home. They are 5-10 against the spread coming off a game where they scored at least 130 points. Miami can’t afford to go down 0-3 as no one has ever come back from that series deficit in the history of the NBA. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

The Mavs seized home court advantage by “stealing” Game 1 in LA, 113-103 as six-point underdogs. Luka Doncic scored 31 points and the key was the Clippers, the league’s top three point shooting team, making only 27.5% from behind the arc. Dallas led most of the game and shot well. While most will be thinking “zig zag theory” here, the gap between the teams simply isn’t as wide as the spread suggests. The Clippers have not won a game in 10 days and are just 3-9 ATS their previous 12 games. They’ve lost three of the four games to Dallas this year including the infamous 51-point loss two days after Christmas. All three Mavericks wins have been by 10 or more points. The Clippers have a lot of pressure on them heading into this postseason and we’re not convinced they are capable of living up to the hype. Dallas is a good team that has lost just three times in its last 13 games, one of those the inconsequential final regular season game. Grab the points in this one. Play on DALLAS

This is an 8* on MIAMI

Both the Heat and Bucks hope for improved shooting in Game 2. From the Heat point of view, that may sound a little strange seeing as they connected on a franchise record 20 three-pointers in Game 1. But they were just 32.7% from the floor inside the arc and both Bam Adebayo (4 of 15) and Jimmy Butler (4 of 22) were not sharp. Miami was our 10* Game of the Month in Game 1, so we were quite happy with the final result. We’ll take them again here as they never trailed by more than eight points on Saturday and there’s no reason to believe they will again tonight. Remember that they eliminated the Bucks from last year’s playoffs. They seem to know how to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo, who was only 10 of 27 in Game 1. The Heat are 16-5 ATS their previous 21 playoff games including 5-0 ATS in the first round. They’ve won 8 of their last 11 overall and while two of the losses were to Milwaukee, one of them didn’t matter and the other went to overtime. The Bucks are now 1-7 ATS their last eight games. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on MEMPHIS

Not many are giving Memphis a chance in Game 1, let alone the series. But coming off two wins in the first ever play-in tournament, maybe they should. The Grizzlies’ narrow wins over San Antonio and Golden State are a little misleading in the sense they led most of the way in both games. Not saying it’s going to be a wire to wire win here in Salt Lake City, but we do like the Grizzlies to keep it close. It will be interesting to observe the “rest vs. rust” for the Jazz, who have not played in a week. The fact Memphis had to win twice to get here isn’t that big of a disadvantage as teams normally play more than twice in a six day span. Of the three times these teams played in the regular season, two were decided by four points or less. The exception was the second game, which was a back to back on the road. Utah has had three or more days rest for only one game all season and they didn’t cover the spread in it. Memphis is 23-14 ATS in road games and is a top six team defensively in points per possessions allowed. Grab the points. Play on MEMPHIS

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Milwaukee will obviously be motivated based on last year’s playoff exit at the hands of Miami. But the Bucks sure chose a tough potential path to make it to the NBA Finals. They may have to go through the Heat, Nets and Sixers to get there. They’ve infamously flamed out of the playoffs earlier than expected the last two years. There’s a lot of pressure on star player Giannis Antetokounmpo coming into this series. The Heat are once again peaking at the right time. They won 12 of their final 16 regular season games to move up to the six seed. Yes, one of the losses did come to the Bucks. But now it’s the playoffs and that’s what this team (meaning the Heat) are built for. They have a top 10 defense and held Milwaukee to 32.7% shooting on three-point attempts in last year’s series. They also have a blueprint to stop Giannis. Eric Spoelstra really outcoached Mike Budenholzer last year. Miami is 15-5 ATS L20 playoff games. The reason they got off to the slow start this year was likely to do to such a short period of time off between seasons. Jimmy Butler’s numbers ended up being here this year compared to last. He and Bam Adebayo are the keys, but we also think some of the Heat’s perimeter shooters are going to knock down more threes than usual. Tyler Herro has been cold since returning from injury. That can change in a hurry. The Bucks have only covered one of their last seven games. Play on MIAMI

This is an 8* on GOLDEN STATE

This is too many points for Golden State. Not only have they won six in a row, they’ve covered six straight as well. The Lakers have the worst ATS record among playoff teams (31-40-1). They aren’t going to just automatically “gel” now that LeBron and Davis are back. James is still hobbled by his injured ankle. Not hobbled is Steph Curry. He went for 46 in the last game and is #1 in the league in scoring. Over his past 24 games, Curry has scored 30 or more 21 times while averaging 36.9 points. HIs shooting alone can propel the Warriors to victory here. The five-game win streak by the Lakers includes two wins by two points. They are off a 110-98 win at New Orleans on the season’s final day. Bad news: the Lakers are 6-15 ATS off a double digit win this year. They are only 2-12 ATS after their last 14 straight up wins. We’re grabbing the points. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Each has two games left in the regular season, but this may not be the last time the Bucks run into the Heat. There’s a chance these two teams could be first round playoff opponents. Milwaukee will finish in the top three, maybe as high as second depending on what the Nets do this weekend. Miami can finish anywhere from fourth to sixth depending on the next two games. What we do know is the Heat would much rather finish in the top five, and match up with either the Hawks or Knicks, as opposed to finishing sixth and facing either the Bucks or Nets. Miami seems to be peaking at the right time as they’ve won four in a row and seven of eight. Their last win was against the East’s #1 seed, Philadelphia, whom they held to 94 points. Remember that the Heat peaked at the right time last year and made it all the way to the NBA Finals, a run that included them eliminating the Bucks from the postseason. The teams haven’t met since December when Miami was in a lot rougher shape. Milwaukee is off a big 142-133 win at Indiana Thursday. They are 4-10 ATS this season if they scored 130 or more points in their last game. Also, in four of their past five games, the Bucks have surrendered at least 133 points. That’s pretty bad. Grab the points. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on WASHINGTON

There’s still one spot in the Eastern Conference play-in tournament up for grabs. It will likely go to Washington. All the Wizards need to do is beat Cleveland tonight and the spot is theirs. They have a two-game lead over Chicago with two games to play. Beating the Cavaliers should not be difficult. The Cavs are one of the worst teams in the league and are coming off a rare win. Before defeating Boston 102-94 two days ago, Cleveland had lost 11 in a row. Seven of those losses were by double digits and only two were by less than nine. The only teams in the league with a worse point differential (than the Cavs) are Orlando and Oklahoma City. Washington let one slip away in Atlanta Wednesday, so they should come out angry. Even without Bradley Beal, the Wizards averaged 120 points/game in the two losses to the Hawks. Scoring shouldn’t be an issue here either. Washington is 26-12 ATS after scoring 115 or more points in their last game and they finished with 116 on Wednesday. Since April 12th, the Wizards are 13-5 and every loss was by four points or less, three of them by one point. So they are one of the hottest teams in the league over the last month. On the road, Cleveland does not even average 100 points/game and they are 10-24 ATS. Play on WASHINGTON

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This is a 10* on CHARLOTTE

The Clippers, who have gone Under the total in nine consecutive games, are just 5-4 straight up during the same stretch. They did defeat undermanned Toronto 115-96 on Tuesday, but look for the Hornets to be a taller order on Thursday. Playing at home, Charlotte will be looking to cement its status as a top eight team in the Eastern Conference. Finishing in the top eight should be the Hornets goal at this point as they’d only have to win once to escape the play-in round and would also get a mea culpa (second game) if they were to lose their first play-in game. The Clippers are pretty much locked into a top four seed out West and don’t have a ton to play for in the next three games, all of which will be on the road. This is the Hornets’ last regular season home game, so expect there to be some level of motivation, or at least more motivation than the Clippers will have. Charlotte has lost two in a row and three of four - all those games coming at home. Not saying they’re going to win tonight, but taking the points is the correct call. Play on CHARLOTTE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

The Hawks beat the Wizards Monday, 125-124, but did not cover the number (-8). It was an interesting game in that the Wizards led 62-61 at halftime, but then Atlanta came storming out of the break to take a 17 point lead after three quarters. But the fourth belonged to Washington as they outscored the Hawks 45-29. Still, Atlanta won despite shooting only 33.3 percent from three (compared to 50% for Washington). The number is a little bit shorter for tonight’s rematch and we will lay the points in this one as Washington isn’t liable to shoot the ball as well as they did Monday. Bradley Beal, who is the NBA’s second leading scorer, has again been ruled out. That the Wizards scored 124 without him on Monday was a surprise. Atlanta has won four of five and is trying to lock down home court advantage for the first round of the playoffs. They are 22-11 SU at home this season, so home court advantage is important to them. Monday was their eighth straight win here. They are 14-2 ATS L16 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

This is a really important game in the race for the six seed in the Eastern Conference. Miami has a two-game lead over Boston after beating them (the Celtics) on Sunday 130-124 here in Beantown. The six seed, as a reminder, avoids the play-in tournament. So it’s very significant to finish in the top six in your conference. The Heat have been the hotter team of late with wins in 9 of their last 12 games. The Celtics have dropped six of nine and actually trailed by 30 points in one of those three victories. We’re going with Miami to make it two in a row in Boston tonight on TNT. The Heat led by 26 at halftime Sunday after shooting 65 percent. Boston got some really bad news yesterday when it was announced that Jaylen Brown, who is having a career year, is done for the season because of a wrist injury. Before getting beaten by the Heat 48 hours ago, the Celtics lost by 22 at Chicago. They’ve now used 34 different starting lineups this season, fourth most in the league, and there’s just not a lot of positives for this team right now. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

The Pelicans desperately need to win Sunday. They are two back of San Antonio, who lost yesterday, for 10th place and the last play-in spot. They’ll head to a place the fans know well, Charlotte, as that’s the franchise’s former home. Neither Zion Williamson or Brandon Ingram will make the trip though as both are injured at the most inopportune time. But without either, New Orleans almost defeated Philadelphia on Friday. They lost that game by only two. Charlotte doesn’t scare us as they too have an injury-depleted roster. The Hornets have won back to back games only one time since April 10th. They are off a win over Orlando on Friday. New Orleans hasn’t dropped consecutive games since a four-game losing streak in mid-April. They are 4-0 ATS off a loss since then. They are 21-9 ATS vs. the Hornets and won the last two times they’ve come to Charlotte. The Hornets are 5-11 ATS their last 16 games. New Orleans is 5-0 ATS its last five road games and 4-0 ATS its last four as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is an 8* on ORLANDO

Minnesota laying seven points on the road seems a bit excessive. They’ve won only eight times on the road all season and have the third worst overall win percentage in the entire NBA. We know the Magic have been struggling recently, but they are still a game better than the Timberwolves. And recent Orlando efforts - except the one vs. Boston - have been competitive. They beat Memphis and Detroit last weekend and were neck and neck with Charlotte most of the way Friday. In January, they rallied from a 16-point halftime deficit to win 97-96 at Minnesota. This will be only the fourth time the T’wolves have been favored to win a road game in 2020-21. They are 2-1 SU/ATS in the other three, but the scoring margin is just +2.0 PPG. Play on ORLANDO

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Both teams won last night. San Antonio got a much needed win in Sacramento, 113-104, ending a five-game losing streak in the process. Portland won for the sixth time in seven games, beating the Lakers 106-101, but did not cover the spread. We think the Blazers will cover Saturday night as they continue their pursuit of a top six spot in the Western Conference. The win over the Lakers did help as it moved them a game ahead. The difference between finishing sixth and seventh is huge because of the new play-in round. The Spurs can only hope for a play-in round appearance as they are 10th, 2.5 games up on New Orleans. (Ten teams make the playoffs, including the play-in round). The best San Antonio can probably hope for is 8th, but that’s still the play-in round and honestly they don’t want to face the Lakers or Blazers in that situation. (Although the winner of the 7th vs. 8th place game is guaranteed a first round playoff series). But the bottom line is Portland is 7-1 ATS its last eight vs. teams with losing records and going to stop an 0-5 ATS skid as home favorites. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

The Knicks have been so successful ATS that they’ve even caught the eye of “mainstream” outlets like ESPN. Coming into tonight’s game with Phoenix, New York has gone 43-23 against the spread this season, a cover rate of 65.1%. Per the ESPN report, only two other teams in the past 30 years have covered 65% of their games in a given season. That’s pretty good for a team that opened the year tied with Cleveland and Detroit as the biggest long-shot to win the NBA Finals (500-1!). But now that they’re getting this kind of recognition, it’s probably a choice time to start fading. Just 48 hours ago, the Knicks got their doors blown off in Denver 113-97, a bad call by us. But we’ve learned our lesson and now are going to fade as the Knicks’ toughest road trip of the season continues tonight in the desert. The Suns have been just as surprising as the Knicks this year, maybe even moreso, as they have the league’s second best overall record. After a shocking 32-point loss to Atlanta on Wednesday, they should be surly. The Suns have won and covered all five matchups with the Knicks the past three seasons including a 118-110 win in Madison Square Garden last month. That ended what was a nine-game Knicks win streak at the time. Phoenix has been great off a loss this year, going 14-4 ATS, so lay the points with confidence. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on the LAKERS

Betting either the Lakers or the Clippers recently has been hazardous to one’s bankroll. The Lakers are just 1-7 ATS their last eight games, though they did just upset Denver - as a 3.5 point underdog - on Monday. They did so without the services of LeBron James. James returned on 4/30 against the Kings and also played on 5/2 vs Toronto, but those were both Lakers’ losses. They are 2-6 SU those last eight games and have fallen into a tie with Dallas for 5th in the West. Seventh place Portland is lurking just a half game back, so there’s a chance the defending NBA champs could end up in the play-in round. James is not playing tonight, but we’ll still take the points with the Lakers as the league’s “other LA team” has not covered in five straight and should not be laying so many points. The Clippers have lost three of the last five games outright and the two wins - both of which were against non-playoff teams - were by just five points each. They trailed much of the way against Toronto in their last game. Remember the Lakers still have Anthony Davis and are #1 in the league in points allowed per possession. Play on LA LAKERS

AAA

This is a 10* on the KNICKS

Two hot teams meet in Denver Wednesday night. The Knicks are the hotter of the two and arguably the hottest team in the league currently. They’ve won 12 of the last 13 games, including three straight by double digits. Equally as impressive is the fact they are on a 15-1 ATS run! That goes back to April 3rd. Nine of the last 10 wins have been by 10 or more points. The only game the Knicks have lost since April 8th was to Phoenix, who has the best record in the NBA. New York will visit Phoenix on Friday. But first they are in Denver. Tonight is the beginning of a tough four-game stretch, all of them on the road. In addition to visits to Denver and Phoenix, the Knicks go to LA to face the Lakers and the Clippers. We’re taking the points here as they just won in Memphis 118-104 as a 3.5-point dog Monday. That same night, Denver lost to the Lakers 93-89 in a game where LeBron James rested. The Nuggets had won five in a row and nine of 10 before suffering that loss, but remember PG Jamal Murray is out for the year and that absence will be felt moving forward. The Knicks have covered two-thirds of their games this season, easily the best ATS record in the league. Denver lost another guard (PJ Dozier) to injury on Monday. Play on NEW YORK

AAA

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Minnesota is on a season-best four game win streak. Two of the wins were against Utah. Look for that streak to end tonight though against a somewhat desperate Pelicans team. New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS run with one SU loss coming by two points. They are 11th in the West, needing to make up a three-game gap to catch Golden State for the final play-in spot. Golden State is who Minnesota just beat, so that helped the Pelicans out. It’s impressive that New Orleans won so comfortably in Oklahoma City as they only shot 5 of 29 from behind the three-point arc. They’ll certainly be better tonight against a T’wolves team that lets opponents hit over 39% from three. Minnesota is still just 2-13 straight up when coming off an upset win as an underdog. The Pelicans have double revenge as they are one of two teams that Minnesota has multiple wins against this season without a loss. New Orleans' last two losses were by two points each, so they could easily be on a five game win streak heading into tonight. This is pretty close to “must win” and they are 27-11 ATS their last 38 road games vs. teams with a home win percentage of .400 or worse. Minnesota is 12-19 at home. Play on NEW ORLEANS

AAA

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Second time in a row we’re going with Portland. They won big for us in their last game, a 130-109 pummeling of Memphis. They were up 33 at one point. It was the Blazers second straight emphatic victory. They also beat Indiana 133-112 earlier in the week. So coming off back-to-back 130+ point efforts, they look to win their third straight game tonight in Brooklyn. The Nets won’t have Durant or Harden and Irving is listed as questionable. They hope to have Irving back, but it’s a gametime decision. The Nets are 4-0 straight up and against the spread their last four games, but Portland comes in more desperate for a win. They are now one game back of Dallas for the six seed and finishing sixth or higher means you avoid the play-in round. Brooklyn is first out East, even though Philadelphia and Milwaukee have better scoring differentials. The Blazers are a good road team (18-12) and can easily beat the Nets when they don’t have two, or maybe all three of their stars. Play on PORTLAND

AAA

This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

For the first time in 2020-21, Minnesota finds itself on a three-game win streak. The only previous time they’d even won two in a row was when they started the season 2-0. Oddly, two of those wins came against the Jazz, the team with the best record in all of basketball. They are 3-0 vs. Utah this season and just 16-44 against everyone else. The third straight win came on Tuesday against a Houston team that is simply playing out the string at this point. We don’t see the Timberwolves extending this improbable win streak tonight though as they face a Golden State team that’s off an incredibly embarrassing 30 point defeat at the hands of Dallas. The Warriors trailed 62-29 at halftime despite the Mavs coming into the game short-handed and it was at HOME. The loss leaves them 31-31 on the year and clinging on to the last available spot for the play-in round. We expect a big time bounce back performance here from Steph Curry as Golden State has already beaten Minnesota by double digits two different times this year. Coach Steve Kerr ripped his team pretty bad after the Dallas loss and said every game from here on out needed to be treated like a playoff game. Lay a really short number in this one. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on PORTLAND

Big-time revenge game for the Blazers tonight. They’ve lost twice at home to Memphis in the last seven days. This time they face the Grizzlies on the road. They do so on the second night of a back to back. Last night probably could not have gone any better as they boat raced Indiana 133-112. They were 50 of 106 from the field and 20 of 35 from three-point range and took control by outscoring the Pacers 40-16 in the third. They were up 35 at that point, which means key players were able to rest. This race for sixth in the West has gotten quite interesting as Portland lost five in a row, four of them at home, before last night’s win. But they are still 1.5 games up on the Grizzlies and 17-12 SU/ATS on the road. Memphis has a losing home record (13-16 SU) and was blown out in Denver two nights ago. This is their first home game in two weeks. A 24-point loss is not the way you want to end a seven-game road trip and look for that to have an effect on the Grizzlies tonight. They shot really well both games in Portland, but were 4 of 32 from behind the arc in Denver. Play on PORTLAND

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE 

Golden State should really “give it” to Sacramento Sunday night. We had the Warriors in a most impressive 118-97 win against Denver on Friday night. That was their sixth win in the last eight games as they continue their push to the playoffs. The two losses were both close games on the road. All six wins have been nine points or greater and this matchup should continue the trend as the Kings won’t have De’Aaron Fox, who is out due to COVID. The Warriors are winning by an average of 9.5 points in the games where they were favored this year. Steph Curry has scored 30 or more in 12 of his last 13 games and should exceed that number again tonight seeing as the Kings are the worst defensive team in the league. The Kings are also 2-10 in their last 12 games with one of the two wins coming earlier this week, by only three points, against last place Minnesota. Seven of those ten losses have been by double digits. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

The Heat’s three-game run (win streak) ended Friday with a 118-113 loss in Atlanta. Now they host Chicago for a couple games. These games will have an effect on the Eastern Conference playoff race as the Heat (31-29) sit in seventh place while the Bulls (25-34) are one game back of 10th, which is where they need to be to make the new play-in round. Although we took them on Thursday and they beat Charlotte 108-91, the Bulls aren’t a very good team. Leading scorer Zach LaVine is still out indefinitely (quarantine). The Bulls last road game resulted in a 16-point loss at Cleveland, who isn’t very good. Miami wasn’t very good defensively on Friday, allowing a shorthanded Hawks team to shoot 53.8% and make 15 threes. They were also outrebounded and -13 in fast break points. They can’t afford to lose a second straight game to a team playing without its leading scorer. Several key players had bad shooting nights in Atlanta and we expect them to bounce back and deliver at home. The Heat won by 11 in Chicago last month. Play on MIAMI

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This is a 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Denver enters Friday at 38-20 overall and in 4th place in the Western Conference. They’ve won four straight, but the last two have been by a total of three points and they didn’t cover either of those. Golden State is 29-30 SU this season and coming off a heartbreaking 118-114 loss at Washington Wednesday night. The Warriors are 10th in the West, just barely holding on to a spot for the play-in tournament. So this game would seem more important to them and they’ve got to love the fact it’s at home. Steph Curry and the boys haven’t played a home game in 11 days. The last one was against the Nuggets and they won 116-107 as 5.5-point underdogs. They just completed a successful road trip (3-2) and are 6-3 SU the last nine games overall. In that last meeting, Denver lost point guard Jamal Murray for the season to an ACL injury. We’re surprised they’ve done so well without him. Steph Curry had 53 points in that last meeting and after having an 11-game run of 30+ point games snapped Wednesday, look for him to have another big game tonight. The Warriors are 6-1 ATS the last 7 games vs. Denver. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is an 8* on CHICAGO

The race for the four play-in spots in the NBA’s Eastern Conference is intensifying. Washington has gotten hot and there are four teams separated by three games gunning for the last two playoff berths. Charlotte is a little bit ahead of those four teams, in eighth place, but fading rapidly as a rash of injuries have hurt literally and figuratively. Just 1-5 the last six games, the Hornets are without LaMelo Ball, Malik Monk and Gordon Hayward. Without three of their top five scorers, the team has failed to even hit 100 points in five of the past 11 games. Really, we didn’t think this team was all that great BEFORE the injuries and this slide should continue tonight in Chicago. The Bulls are desperate after losing in Cleveland last night 121-105. They are one game back of 10th place as they’ve won just twice in their past eight games. Their leading scorer (Zach LaVine) is also out, but they are still a better offensive team than Charlotte. They also held Cleveland and Boston both to just 96 points in recent wins. We just see Charlotte as a team in a free-fall and it's unlikely to end with so many key players still missing. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on GSW

Thanks to the latest virtuoso effort from Steph Curry (49 points), the Warriors were able to defeat Philadelphia Monday night 107-96. They are now 3-1 on the current road trip with Curry averaging 42.8 points/game on 55 percent shooting. Their next game is tonight in the Nation’s Capital against a Wizards team that has been surging of late with five straight wins. That win streak has them tied with Chicago for 10th place, the last available spot for the play-in round of the postseason. Golden State, who has won five of its last six overall, is 9th in the West. So this one is every bit as important to them. We don’t see how you can fade Curry right now, especially in this matchup against the team that gives up the second highest number of points/game in the league. The Warriors have revenge for a three-point home loss 12 days ago. The Wizards have a losing record at home. Golden State is 16-6 SU and 14-8 ATS when favored this season. Washington did snap Utah’s long home win streak earlier in the month, but their last four wins have all been against non-playoff teams, the last two vs. Detroit and Oklahoma City, who might be the worst teams in each conference. Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on DALLAS

Dallas is not only off a 117-109 loss to the Knicks (were 6.5-point favorites), but has also failed to cover four in a row. They have a golden opportunity to turn things around Sunday when they host the Kings, losers of nine straight. Sacramento was at least competitive in its last game, but they still lost by eight in Phoenix. They hadn’t covered in five straight before that. No Marvin Bagley III for tonight either. Very bad defense has been the Kings problem all season. They give up the most points per game in the league. This feels like it should be a big offensive night for Dallas, who has struggled at home, They badly want to move up into sixth place in the Western Conference and thus avoid the play-in round for the postseason. They are two games back of sixth place Portland right now. Off their last 10 straight up losses, the Mavs are 7-3 against the spread. This is a mismatch and the Kings haven’t stayed within seven points of anybody in their past six games. Play on DALLAS

This is a 10* on PORTLAND

With just one month left in the regular season, Portland and San Antonio are both struggling at an inopportune time. The Trail Blazers have lost four of five, the most recent loss coming by one point to Boston on Tuesday. The Spurs have lost six of eight and were beaten 117-112 by Toronto on Wednesday. In sixth place as opposed to 10th, the Blazers are in a much better spot than San Antonio right now and we like them to be the ones to bounce back tonight. Compared to a lot of the teams Portland has faced recently, the Spurs are a weak opponent. The Blazers’ SU record vs. sub .500 teams this year is 23-7 and that includes 5-0 in the second half. The Blazers also have a winning record on the road. San Antonio is 12-17 SU at home and is coming off a week-long road trip. They have to head back out on the road for two more (starting tomorrow) and thus will have “less in the tank” here compared to the Blazers, who have been off for two days. Play on PORTLAND

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Both the Knicks and Pelicans are on three-game win streaks coming into tonight. Only one of those streaks can obviously continue and we think it will be the Pelicans. They’ve beaten Philadelphia, Cleveland and Sacramento. The Knicks have beaten Memphis, Toronto and the Lakers. New York is 6-0 ATS its last six games, but those last three wins all came at home. The Knicks are 8th in the East, but could move as high as 6th with a win here tonight. New Orleans is more desperate as they are a game behind Golden State for the last play-in spot. We expect them to assert themselves here as they led Sacramento by as much as 23 the other night before letting things get a little too close for comfort at the end. Zion Williamson has averaged 35 points/game during the win streak. But the big key here is the Knicks’ 0-5 record, both straight up and against the spread, when they are on a three-game win streak this season. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

Over their past two games, the Suns have scored a total of 260 points. They had 81 by halftime last night against Houston as they set a new NBA record with 18 threes made in a single half. Don’t be fooled by that final score from last night either. While it ended up being 126-120, Phoenix was up big much of the way. Tonight they play host to Miami and covering a large spread isn’t something they’ll have to concern themselves with. Winners of nine of their last ten games, the Suns can get within one game of Utah for first place in the West. They are 16-6 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. Miami is 6-1 its last seven games, but isn’t in Phoenix’s league. The Heat lost by 10 at home to the Suns last month and also lost by seven to them in last season’s bubble. They are 6-14 straight up and 7-13 against the spread vs. teams that have a winning record. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

Rough situation here for Cleveland, who is playing without rest against a New Orleans team that lambasted them 116-82 last month. Here at home, the Cavs gave up 135 points last night to a Toronto team that was severely short-handed. Gary Trent Jr scored 44 for the Raptors! So Zion Williamson has to be “licking his chops” heading into this Sunday night matchup as the Pelicans look to make it two straight wins. On Friday, they defeated Philadelphia 101-94 as a five-point home underdog. Now they are a road favorite, a big difference, but they also go from facing one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference to one of the worst. New Orleans really needs to win this game as they are 1.5 games behind Golden State (who was victorious last night) for the last playoff spot. There were two times earlier in the season where the Cavs suffered an outright loss when they were favored to win. After both of those losses, they failed to cover the next game. They’re in that situation again here, a situation they are 3-7 ATS L10. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on SACRAMENTO

Back on Thursday, Utah avoided what would have been the first three-game losing streak of the season, defeating Portland 122-103. But they had to rally from a halftime deficit to do so. They used a 40-19 third quarter to seize control of the game and that was “all she wrote” as the Jazz won their 23rd straight home game. They’re at home again tonight and facing a Kings team that has lost five in a row. But predictably the number is large. Too large in our eyes as Sacramento hasn’t gotten this many points in a game all season. What’s strange about the Kings’ five game losing streak is that they were favored on three different occasions. They’d also WON five in a row before losing five straight. They’ve gone off as the favorite in six of their last ten games. The four times they’ve been underdogs, they are 3-1 ATS with two outright wins and one of the losses coming by just one point. We think the team comes in with a positive mindset after a poor effort at home vs. Detroit the other night. Utah is only 2-6 ATS coming off their previous eight wins by 10 or more points. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on MINNESOTA

This is the kind of game where everyone just assumes the Celtics will “roll,” but doing that is often easier said than done. Minnesota may not have a very good record, but they’ve covered five of the last eight games and the last one (which they did NOT cover) was only a four-point loss. Boston is off a two-point win against the Knicks, but has not been scoring a ton recently and failed to cover four of its last six games. They finished with just 101 points against the Knicks after being held to 96 in a loss to the Sixers. That’s just not enough offense to make us think they can cover this large spread. This Celtics team hasn’t been above .500 in almost a month and basically lives off reputation. They were down seven in the fourth quarter to the Knicks. Minnesota will be looking for a win here as it has not prevailed in Beantown since 2005. Nor have they beaten the Celtics anywhere going back to 2016. That’ll be on the minds of players tonight and Karl-Anthony Towns, who had 32-12 against Indiana, should keep them in this one. Grab the points. Play on MINNESOTA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

We rode the Hawks to an easy 123-106 win over New Orleans last night and will stick with them again tonight as they host Memphis in a matchup where both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies were also double digit winners Tuesday, although they had to go on the road to defeat 124-112. Winning back to back nights on the road is pretty tough in this league. The Grizzlies know this all too well as they are 0-3 straight up and against the spread when playing for a second straight night on the road. Those three losses have come by an average of 19 points/game. They’ve lost by 16 at Utah (3/27), 23 at Phoenix (3/15) and, 18 at Indiana (2/2). Twice they were coming in off a win. It doesn’t help them that Atlanta has won and covered seven consecutive home games, a streak that predates the All-Star Break. The Hawks have moved into 4th place in the Eastern Conference with a 4-0 (both SU/ATS) April where they’ve averaged 125 points/game. Memphis is 3-0 SU/ATS in April, but that inability to win back to back road games looms large in handicapping this one. The Hawks took the first meeting 122-112 in Memphis back in December. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

These young Hawks are starting to spread their wings as they’ve won three straight, moving them into a fourth place tie with Miami in the East. Each of the three wins have seen Atlanta cover the spread. Only one of the three was a blowout, but it happened to be against the team they’ll face again tonight. New Orleans was without four starters for that game and both Zion Willamson/Brandon Ingram are listed as questionable for tonight’s rematch. We did take the Pelicans on Sunday, when they got Lonzo Ball and Steven Adams back, but they were also facing a horrible Houston team. The Pelicans don’t defend well (28th in points allowed per possession) and are 0-6 ATS the L6 meetings with Atlanta. The Hawks have injuries too, but showed off their depth in Sunday’s 117-111 win over Golden State where they were +36 in bench scoring. Trae Young didn’t even play in the blowout win over these Pelicans last week. The Hawks are 6-0 ATS their last six home games. Play on ATLANTA

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This is an 8* on CLEVELAND

Cleveland is a bit of a “tough sell” right now with five straight losses coming into tonight. Four of those losses have been by at least 12 points. Not a ton of offense to speak of either as they’ve gone seven games in a row without scoring more than 105. But at least they got into triple digits on Saturday (scored 101) after failing to do so each of the previous four games. The Cavs are in San Antonio tonight and we think this is a game that they can cover. Why? Well, the Spurs have dropped seven of their last nine games. They are coming off back to back losses in overtime, first to Atlanta (a 2OT game) and then to Indiana. Both losses came in San Antonio. This could end up being the most points the Spurs end up laying in any game all season. We think it’s too many. They are 6-10 ATS as home favorites and have been outscored in those games. They were favored in each of the last two games, including by 7 against Indiana, who was missing four key players and still found a way to score 139. That was the fourth time in the last seven games, all at home, that the Spurs gave up 132 points. Cleveland has a chance to win here. Take the points. Play on CLEVELAND

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This is a 10* on NO

We can’t believe this line is so low. Houston has lost 25 of its last 27 games. Now we know New Orleans, coming off back to back losses, has major injury concerns right now. Three starters, one of them Zion Williamson, missed both games of the back to back against Atlanta and Orlando. But no matter who is in the starting five Sunday night, we believe the Pelicans will be able to easily defeat the Rockets. For the record, Williamson is listed as questionable as is Brandon Ingram. Houston has not even been close in most of these losses. The last three have all been by 10 or more, meaning 15 of their last 19 games have resulted in a double digit defeat. The Rockets are 4-19 ATS at home this season. Still in the playoff race, New Orleans can’t afford to lose this game. We think they’ll pull the necessary pieces together to get the comfortable ‘W.’ Lay the points. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE

Milwaukee looked darn impressive last night in their decisive 127-109 win in Portland. Giannis Antetokounmpo, in particular, shined. He shot 85% and scored 47 points. From inside the 3-point arc, Antetokounmpo was 18 for 18, tying a record set by Wilt Chamberlain. The Bucks were up by 24 in the third quarter and thus were able to coast the rest of the way. That’s important when playing the second night of a back to back like they are here. Sacramento should not provide much resistance. The Kings allow the most points per possession in the league, so it should be another big offensive night from “The Greek Freak” and company. The Bucks beat the Kings by 13 in late February, 128-115 and in doing so put up 70 points by halftime. It should be mentioned that Sacramento is also in the second night of a back to back here. Only they lost at home to the Lakers last night by 21! That’s just awful when you consider LA doesn’t have either LeBron James or Anthony Davis right now. The Bucks have the best point differential among Eastern Conference teams and third best overall. We like them to roll to a 10th straight victory over the Kings, who are 0-6 ATS this season coming off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE

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This is a 10* on PHILLY

Philadelphia has dropped two in a row, but they’ve got an ideal matchup here that should allow them to bounce back in a major way. Cleveland is the opposition as the Sixers wrap up a six-game road trip, which they began with three straight wins. The losses were to the Clippers and Nuggets and there is no shame losing to those teams, especially on the road. Cleveland has the worst point differential in the league, so there would be a lot of shame if the Sixers were to lose tonight. Fortunately, we know the Cavaliers are 7-19 against the spread against winning teams. They are also 0-4 ATS after being held to 85 points or less and are coming off a horrible 114-75 loss at Utah. That was the Cavs’ third straight loss and they were held under 100 points in all of them. The clincher here is that Philly is actually 0-2 vs. Cleveland this season, so they are going to be out for revenge. Having fallen behind Brooklyn in the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference, the 76ers will have no mercy for their opponents tonight. They improve to 5-0-1 ATS their last six games as a road favorite. Play on PHILADELPHIA

This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO

These teams just played Monday. We had the Kings, who won “going away,” 132-115 as 2.5-point underdogs. That was their fifth straight win, a season-high. This win streak has also seen the Kings go 4-1 against the spread. We are presented with the same spread tonight and won’t be deviating from the previous script. San Antonio has certainly struggled of late. They’ve lost five of six overall and are just 12-17 vs. the Western Conference this season. (The only win in the last six games was against Chicago). During its five game win streak, Sacramento is averaging 120.4 points/game while giving up only 109.0. They’ve gone over 130 in two of the previous three, their two highest scoring games of the season.. Every starter scored at least 14 on Monday. When the Kings are off an upset win as an underdog (as they are here), there tends to be a no letdown as they’ve gone 8-4 ATS the next game. The Spurs have a losing SU record at home (11-14) this season and going back further, they have covered just 12 of 40 as home favorites. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is a 10* on PHOENIX

The Hawks very well may be tiring as they’re about to play their sixth straight game on the road. After tonight, they’ve got two more before the trip ends. They’ve lost three of last three four and Monday’s 126-102 loss in Denver was the worst showing yet. We don’t like Atlanta’s chances here as they take on a Phoenix team that has been playing as well as any in the league over the last month or so. The Suns have lost only three times this month and are off a 3-1 road trip where the only loss was by one point. Defensively, they’ve been locked in. They just held Charlotte to 97 points in an overtime win on Sunday. Before that, they held Toronto to 100 points. The Suns are better at both ends of the floor, are at home and the Hawks are road-weary. We see no reason why NOT to lay the points. Play on PHOENIX

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This is an 8* on SACRAMENTO

Sacramento looks for a season-high fifth straight win tonight as they invade San Antonio. The Spurs had LOST four in a row before they easily defeated the Bulls on Saturday night. A huge first half (led by 26 at the break) was critical to San Antonio’s success there. We see no such fast start taking place tonight. The Spurs are far too inconsistent to be counted on to play well in back to back games. They actually have a losing record at home. The Kings are 6-1 since St. Patrick’s Day, which has them thinking playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Desperate to end the NBA’s longest postseason drought, we don’t see this team throwing in the towel any time soon. While three of their last six wins have been by two points, we don’t care how many the underdog wins by tonight. Grab the points. Play on SACRAMENTO

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This is an 8* on PHOENIX

We’re all out of answers when it comes to the question of “how” the Hornets are in 4th place in the East. Picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, Charlotte has won three straight to get to 23-21. They’ve beaten San Antonio, Houston and Miami during the win streak, but now things get much harder when Phoenix comes to town. The Suns have been great this year. They are second in the West, ahead of the Clippers and Lakers, and have lost only three times in the last month while winning 10. We really like the Suns to “stick it” to the Hornets this afternoon. Even though they didn’t make a basket in the final 3:50 Friday, Phoenix still was able to win vs. Toronto. Remember that Charlotte doesn’t have LaMelo Bell (injured), which is a huge loss. It’s unlikely Malik Monk is going to offer a repeat of his 32-point performance we saw Friday vs. Miami. The Hornets are just 7-13 SU/ATS vs. .500 or better teams. The Suns are 15-4 SU/ATS. Play on PHOENIX

This is an 8* on LA CLIPPERS

The Sixers lead the Eastern Conference with a 32-13 overall record, however both the Nets and Bucks are hot on their heels (within 2.5 games). The Clippers’ 30-16 overall record has them third in the Western Conference and four games back of first place Utah. Both teams come into Saturday having won four in a row. After a furious rally to beat Atlanta to start the week, LA swept two games in San Antonio, first using an awesome offensive display (scored 134 in the first game) then an awesome defensive display (allowed 85 in the second game). That makes it three double digit wins in the last four games. Philly has been fortunate to face Golden State (no Curry) and the Lakers (no LeBron or Anthony Davis) on their current road trip. They are still without Joel Embiid. The Clippers may not have Kawhi Leonard tonight, but we still like them at home. They ended up not having Leonard when we took them Thursday in San Antonio. Paul George showed he can carry the load as he had 24 points and 13 rebounds. The Sixers are a dominant home team, but only 13-9 on the road and that’s with three straight wins. Play on LA CLIPPERS.

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This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has looked good of late in winning 14 of their last 19 contests. We had them Wednesday as they took out Minnesota 128-108. That was an easy cover as 8.5-point favorites and this should be as well as the Mavs are laying a short number at home to Indiana. The Pacers have struggled recently, losing 9 of 14 and they are an ugly 3-10-1 ATS in those games. They did beat Detroit 116-111 on Wednesday, but that is not something to brag about. They failed to cover the 7.5 point spread in that one. It’s difficult to see the Pacers keeping up with the Mavs tonight. Dallas has scored 260 points in its last two games. They are one blown lead in Portland away from coming into this game on a four-game win streak. Kristaps Porzingis looked dominant vs. the Timberwolves and Luka Doncic had another triple double. Indiana has covered only 3 of the last 14 times it’s been an underdog. Dallas is 5-1 ATS its last six home games. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on LAC

The Clippers have strung together three straight victories, the last one coming last night here at the Alamo. They crushed the Spurs 134-101, a game in which they never trailed and were up 12 after the first quarter. It was LA’s 11th win of the season by 20 points or more. With the Lakers reeling right now, there is no excuse for the Clippers to finish any worse than third in the Western Conference and on paper, you’d probably like them over the top two teams (Utah, Phoenix) come playoff time. The Spurs are headed in the opposite direction as last night was their third straight loss. A 24-hour turnaround isn’t going to allow for them to make things much better tonight. Making things even worse is the fact the Clippers are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in the second night of a back to back. They’ve won those seven games this season by an average of 16.4 points per game. Six Clippers scored at least 13 points in last night’s win and the team shot 55% overall. We see no reason why this shouldn’t be another easy win for the road team. Play on LA CLIPPERS

This is an 8* on DALLAS

Dallas has been inconsistent this year, but they have what we consider “a favorable stretch” over the next week or so. A 40-point win in Portland on Sunday showed what the Mavs are capable of doing. They should have won twice in Portland over the weekend, but blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead on Friday and lost 125-119. Had they held on there, they’d be on a three-game win streak coming into this game at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bad. They have the worst straight up record in the league at 10-33. They’ve lost two in a row and 13 of 16. Karl-Anthony Towns being bothered by a wrist injury doesn’t help matters. Nor does facing Dallas, who is 28-14 ATS at Minnesota their previous 42 visits. The Mavericks are 13-5 overall since Feb 6th with Luka Doncic playing very well of late. Already averaging career highs in both points and assists this season, Doncic has gone for 39 points, 7.3 points and 7.3 assists over his last three games. We look for a big win by the road team. Play on DALLAS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

Chicago is a team desperate to make the playoffs this season. In the Eastern Conference, that shouldn’t be that difficult but here we are on March 24th and the Bulls are four games below .500. That’s still good enough for ninth place, which would mean being involved in the play-in scenario, but the Bulls would certainly like to get themselves on “steadier ground” over the next month. Beating a sorry team like Cleveland is imperative in achieving that. The Cavaliers are actually better, record-wise, than three teams in the East. But they have the worst point differential in the entire league. On the road, the Cavs have been terrible with a 5-15 record (SU and ATS) and they’re getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Bulls have not yet had a chance to play Cleveland this year and hosting them should mean a very easy win. It was a 25-point home loss on Monday, but that was to the Jazz. Cleveland also lost at home Monday, by 14 to Sacramento. This spread should be much higher considering the Bulls are 17-5 ATS when facing losing teams. Play on CHICAGO

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This is a 10* on BROOKLYN

After losing to Orlando Friday night, Brooklyn should bounce back tonight at home vs. Washington. The Nets actually are seeking double revenge in this matchup after losing twice to the Wizards back in January. Both games saw them blow big leads. With Washington off a shocking upset over Utah, all signs point to a “return to normalcy” Sunday evening. No team allows more points per game than the Wiz. No team scores more points per game than Brooklyn. The Nets can probably name their point total here as the Wizards have allowed an average of 125.6 points over their previous five contests. The Nets are still winners of 14 of the last 16 games (12-4 ATS) and the last time they were off a loss, they bounced back with an 11-point win in San Antonio. This matchup is far more favorable. James Harden has missed 31 of his last 36 three-point attempts. Think he might be “due” to go “off?” There’s no better opponent for him to do so than this one. Play on BROOKLYN

This is a 10* on DENVER

Losses like the one the Bulls had Wednesday night are what could ultimately prevent this team from making the playoffs. Not making the postseason would be pretty bad considering how weak the East is this year and that 10 teams now get in because of the play-in scenario. So the bottom line is that the Bulls aren’t really a force to be reckoned with. Getting outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter by the Spurs and losing 106-99 snapped a two-game win streak. Now the Bulls hit the road to face a Denver team that’s arguably playing its best basketball of the season. The Nuggets come in having won seven of eight. They’ve won by a combined 40 points in the last two games, beating both Indiana and Charlotte here at home. Chicago is pretty comparable to those teams, tbh, and while the Nuggets are now being asked to lay a larger spread, that shouldn’t be an issue considering they won by six in the Windy City earlier this month. Nikola Jokic had a monster game (39-14-9) against the Bulls, who are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Denver. Play on DENVER

This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

New Orleans has recorded two consecutive blowout wins. The first saw them beat Cleveland 116-82. Given the Cavs stature in the league, you may not be all that impressed by that one. But what about the Pelicans shooting 65% and blitzing the Clippers 135-115 Sunday night? We had the Over in that game and were loving it as NO was up by 33 at one point. Zion Williamson has scored at least 20 points in 17 consecutive games. By the way, the shooting percentage from the Pelicans on Sunday was a new NBA season-high. We like their chances tonight in Portland as they face a Blazers team that’s trending in a different direction right now. Portland lost in Minnesota the other night, which was also the fourth straight game they did not cover the spread. They are only 4-6 SU the L10 games. While the majority of their recent outings have been closely contested affairs, no team in the league has suffered more 20+ point losses. CJ McCollum is set to return tonight, but after a two-month absence, it’ll take awhile for him to return to his “old self.” The Pelicans are looking for revenge as they lost by two at home to the Blazers last month. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on TORONTO

Toronto is a better team than Charlotte. They are a bit short-handed right now due to COVID protocol and that is why they are getting points Saturday. Home court doesn’t mean much this season. The Hornets are just 10-8 in home games this year and that’s after a three-point win over a bad Detroit team Thursday. That same night, the Raptors appeared headed for victory as well. They led the Hawks by 15 in the final six minutes, but ended up losing on a buzzer beater. That was their third straight loss and fifth in the last six games. But we’ll go with them to bounce back here against a team they beat twice earlier in the season. Both wins were by just three points, but we’d take that here. It’s fair to say that the Hornets being in the top eight in the conference standings is a MAJOR surprise. It’s not just that they weren’t expected to do much. They’ve also given up more points in 2020-21 than they’ve scored. There have been three previous times this season when the Raptors have been on a three-game losing streak. They’ve responded by going 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game. They are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in this situation the last three years. Play on TORONTO

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver is simply a lot better than Indiana right now. The Pacers only barely scraped by Cleveland last night, winning 114-111 thanks to a fourth quarter comeback. T.J. McConnell set a record with nine first half steals and the Pacers shot 56.6% as a team. Yet they still could only win by three against one of the worst teams in the league. Now, without rest, they are facing a team that just destroyed Milwaukee by 31 points - on the road! The Nuggets now look to make it four straight road wins heading into the All Star Break. They also won in Oklahoma City by 30 and we had them when they snuck by Chicago. There are only four teams in this league that have a better point differential than the Nuggets. Indiana is clearly not one of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS their last tries as an underdog and have failed to cover five straight overall. Their starters played heavy minutes last night. They certainly aren’t likely to shoot as well here as they did last night and that means trouble facing a team that has Nikola Jokic and is shooting almost 55% its L3 games. Play on DENVER

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This is an 10* on GOLDEN STATE

Golden State is off a loss and Portland is off a win. But the road team (Golden State) opening as the favorite to win tonight should tell you a lot about this matchup. The Warriors had won three in a row (for the first time this season) before losing to the Lakers Sunday night. Meanwhile, Portland was on a four-game losing streak before beating Charlotte Monday. Injuries have certainly impacted both sides in 2020-21 but it feels as if Portland is hurting more right now with Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum all out. Of course, Golden State doesn’t have Klay Thompson, but Draymond Green will play Wednesday. These teams split a couple of games in Oakland last month, each winning in blowout fashion. Why we like the Warriors is that the Blazers simply cannot be trusted to play good defense. They are third to last in the league in number of points allowed per possession. We “smell” a big game coming from Steph Curry tonight as the Warriors are 8-3 ATS their L11 games as a favorite plus 6-2 ATS their L8 following a SU loss.  Play on GOLDEN STATE

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This is a 10* on ATLANTA

So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA

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This is a 10* on DENVER

Denver should probably be higher than seventh in the West as only four teams in the conference have a scoring differential. The Nuggets haven’t done well in games where the oddsmakers expect a lot of scoring, going 0-6 ATS when the total is 230 points or higher. While the total could close that high again tonight in Chicago, the Nuggets are coming off a 30-point win in Oklahoma City and should easily make it back to back wins. The Bulls are improved, but could only score 97 in a home loss to Phoenix on Friday. Most of their recent victories have been against bad teams. In fact, they are just 4-11 straight up when the opponent is .500 or better. The Bulls were supposed to play against Toronto yesterday, but COVID protocol prevented that game from happening. While this is no longer the second night of a back to back, look for Chicago’s rhythm to be disrupted. There’s too much talent to ignore with this Nuggets team as Jamal Murray is averaging 30.1 points his last nine games and Nikola Jokic just put up his eighth triple double of the season. Play on DENVER

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This is a 10* on CLIPPERS

It's a heavyweight matchup Sunday afternoon on ABC with the Clippers taking on the Bucks. Both teams are currently trying to chase down the top spot in their respective conferences. In the East, Milwaukee only trails Philadelphia by 1.5 games (after the Sixers lost Saturday) and is eventually going to pass them. We’re not as certain about the Clippers catching the insanely hot Jazz, but being only 3.5 (games) back of Utah right now (given how hot the Jazz have been) isn’t a bad place to be. We’re siding with LA in this one as not only are they 4-2 SU/ATS in the six games they’ve been underdogs in, but the Bucks are short-handed with Jrue Holliday and Jaylen Adams both in COVID protocol and DJ Augustin out for personal reasons. Don’t think they can count on Donte DiVincenzo scoring a career-high 24 points again like he did vs. New Orleans on Thursday. It wasn’t too long ago that Milwaukee lost five in a row. The Clippers are basically at full strength (only missing Patrick Patterson) and had seven players finish in double figures last time out. Play on LA CLIPPERS

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This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS

You don’t see the Bucks lose five in a row very often, but that’s exactly what they did in an eight-day span (2/10-2/18) earlier this month. They have since “course-corrected” with three consecutive victories at home, all of them coming against what could objectively be called “bad teams” (Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Minnesota). Those are probably the three worst teams in the West, for the record. New Orleans is fifth from the bottom in that conference, but we’d say they’re also in a different class from the Bucks’ three previous opponents. A thrilling come from behind win on Sunday against the Celtics showed what the Pelicans are capable of doing. Then they prevailed again last night, beating Detroit 128-118. This team can definitely score as they’ve hit the 120 mark in five of their last eight games. That kind of offensive production makes it awfully difficult to cover against them when the spread is this large. The Pelicans had a season-high 74 points in the paint last night, led by Zion Williamson’s 32. NO is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as an underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS

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This is a 10* on CHICAGO

The Bulls have climbed into the top eight in the East by virtue of two consecutive victories. Now they’re still two games below .500, so this is hardly the halcyon days of the Jordan era. Still, a franchise that has not made the postseason four of the previous five years will “take it.” Chicago is also in a much better place than tonight’s opposition, Minnesota, who has the worst record in the entire NBA and lost five in a row. The Timberwolves played last night and got torched 139-112 at Milwaukee. So the situation here is hardly in their favor. It’s pretty rare that you can get away with laying such a short number like this against the T’wolves. So we’ll jump at the opportunity as the Bulls should have no problems scoring tonight. They’ve put up 120+ points in the last two games and just beat Houston by 20. They’re 11-5 ATS this season if they scored 115 or more in their last game. They’re also 11-4 ATS against the Western Conference and 12-5 ATS against sub-.500 teams. The bottom line is the Bulls are “looking” like a playoff team in 2021 and we think they’ll play like it tonight. Play on CHICAGO

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THIS IS A 10* on PHOENIX

The Suns had a six-game win streak snapped Tuesday with a 128-124 loss to Brooklyn. We’re not at all concerned about that. They actually led the Nets, who were without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, by 24. It’s obviously a game they should have won. They can get back on track tonight in New Orleans. The Pelicans have lost four of five while giving up an average of 126.8 points/game. Two nights ago, they were beaten here at home by Portland 126-124. They’ve also lost to the likes of Detroit and Chicago recently. Right now, the Pelicans’ record is 12-16 and they just don’t perform well off high-scoring games. They are 4-9 ATS after allowing 115 or more points and 3-9 ATS after scoring 115 or more themselves. The Suns are simply much better defensively as they rank 4th in league in scoring (108 PPG allowed). They’ve recently defeated Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Boston. We’ve got no hesitation with laying a small number with the better team. Play on PHOENIX

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This is a 10* on MIAMI

Miami experienced a horrible loss last night as it blew a 19-point lead and lost to Golden State in overtime. It was a game where the Heat never actually trailed in regulation. Needless to say, that’s a game you “can’t lose.” But they did and are now sitting at 11-17 on the season, having lost three in a row. Sacramento is 12-15 and they’ve lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Someone’s going to reverse their recent fortune here and we believe it will be the Heat, even though the Kings are rested. The four straight losses have all been at home. They’ve also all been by eight points or greater. Miami beat Sacramento on January 30th even though the Kings made 17 three-pointers in that game. The Kings defense is just horrendous as they allow more points per game than anyone in the West. At home, they are giving up an average of 121.6 points/game. Miami shouldn’t have any difficulty scoring tonight and we look for them to erase the painful memory of last night’s defeat. Play on MIAMI

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