This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers.

Desperation breeds motivation, San Francisco has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian at others, but I think has a real shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are at 4-4. New Orleans though comes in a bit complacent I think today, its back to back wins have propelled it into first in the week division. San Francisco on the other hand has dropped two straight and finds itself three games behind West-leading Arizona and a game back of Seattle. The visitors will be especially motivated here after last week’s ugly 13-10 home loss to division rival St. Louis. QB Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times last week after being sacked just six times in the first seven games; Kaepernick definitely catches a break this week though vs. this suspect Saints unit. New Orleans comes in off a 28-10 win over Carolina but the victory came at a cost; already down RB’s Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, FB Austin Johnson was lost due to an injury. San Francisco gets a bit healthier defensively this week though with the expected return of LB Patrick Willis. Note that San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons after two or more consecutive SU losses, while New Orleans is just 5-6 ATS the last two years after two or more consecutive SU victories. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the the UNDER between the Denver Broncos and the New England Patriots.

I jumped on this total the very second it came out and got 56 and it’s since come down from that, but regardless, I still love this pick and believe that these two normally high-scoring teams will play to a more of a “chess match” style of game where field position becomes paramount in deciding the outcome and expect this total to ultimately fall below the posted number. "At the end of the day, it's Broncos versus Patriots," Denver coach John Fox said earlier in the week. This is a big game with many story lines for each side, but the bottom line is that that the best record in the AFC is on the line in this one. When these teams played last year, Denver would lead 24-0 at halftime, but Tom Brady orchestrated a late rally and New England would win 34-31 in OT. Both teams are coming off super high-scoring games as well, Peyton Manning had three TD’s in last week’s 35-21 win over San Diego, while Brady and company would destroy Chicago 51-23 last week. Despite these teams being unquestionable offensive juggernauts, it’s important to note that each has displayed a few strong UNDER tendencies in this position, most notably: Denver has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 14 after a divisional contest, while New England has seen it dip below the number in five of its last eight as an underdog. While the majority of the public jumps on the over, we’re going the other way, I think this game is going to be a scrappy, slower-paced affair and that all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins.

For a number of different reasons, I like the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded. Dallas is 6-1 and is one of the best team’s in the league. Hmm? Even at 6-1, do you feel like the Cowboys are in fact one of the league’s elite? I certainly don’t. RB DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo have been excellent thus far, but I think will finally take a step back here against a determined and hungry Washington team. The league’s top run game has obviously helped the oft-maligned Romo who has an NFL-high 69.2 completion percentage to date. But as I said off the top, I think the Redskins can surprise the home side today, they broke a four-game slide last week with a 19-17 win over Tennesee, backup QB Colt McCoy was inserted in relief of an ineffective Kirk Cousins and was 11 for 13 for 128 yards and a TD. Note, RG III could make an appearance today as well: “I’ve already made the decision. I've said it's going to be Colt," coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "I've said Robert will be the wild card, possibly, if he's ready to go, and that still hasn't been decided yet." This is also a double revenge game after the Cowboys took both divisional contests in 2013. Note that Washington is in fact 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents, while Dallas is 0-2 ATS the last two years on MNF and just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 in front of the home town crowd. It’s true that Washington has dropped eight straight to NFC East foes, but streaks (both good and bad), were made to be broken; while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to the undervalued visiting side; play on WASHINGTON.

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This is a 10* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER between the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints.

We have a couple of extremly proficient offensive teams going head to head on Sunday night, but for a number of different reasons I feel that this total will sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Green Bay has rolled to four straight victories behind the great play of QB Aaron Rodgers, most recently routing the Panthers 38-17 last week. However, the visitors will face a desperate and hungry 2-4 home side; note that a loss would give the Saints their worst seven-game start to a season under Sean Payton. Take note though, the Saints are still completely in the playoff picture as Carolina leads the NFC South as just 3-3-1: “That's a ton of football," Payton said. "Basically we're finished (with), I believe a third of the season, a little bit more than that. But the focus for us will be right on Green Bay." The home side will be especially eager to atone for last week’s 24-23 setback to Detroit in which it allowed the Lions to rally for two TD’s with just 3:38 left to play. So while most of the wagering public will be piling on the OVER (note that this total opened at 54.5 and has since been bet up to 56 at some places), I think the value is in going the other way. I believe Green Bay comes in a bit flat footed and the Saints intensity on the defensive side of the ball catches it off-guard; note the Packers have seen the total go UNDER the number in three of their  last four as a road dog of 3 points or less, while New Orleans has seen it dip below the number in two of its last three as a home fav of 3 points or less. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Carolina Panthers. 

When you think of these two teams, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? For most it would be smash mouth defensive play, but that’s not been the case this year, each comes in having played to numerous OVERS. Suffice it to say, I think that trend ends today and look for this total to sneak below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. Both teams come in hungry, the reigning champs are looking to avoid a three-game slide, something they haven’t had to endure in three years. Seattle lost 30-23 at Dallas at home, followed by a trade of WR Percy Harvin and then concluded with a 28-26 setback at St. Louis on Sunday: “We've got work to do, we've got work to do to get consistent," coach Pete Carroll said. Seattle’s defense ranked first last year but has given up at least 300 yards in four games and ranks just 19th overall this season. The Hawks have won three straight over Carolina, including last season’s 12-7 effort; Panthers’ QB Cam Newton completed only 53.8 percent of his passes for 266 yards and a TD. After throwing for two TD’s and running in another on the ground in a 37-37 tie with the Bengals on October 12th, Newton was held to 246 total yards in last Sunday’s listless 38-17 loss at Green Bay. Carolina was second in defense only to the Hawks last year but ranks 29th this season: "What are we going to do? Quit? Absolutely not," Newton assessed earlier in the week. "We have to keep going, keep fighting and we'll figure out a way to get out of this." Note that the Carolina offense is down a few key pieces because of injury including RB’s Fozzy Whittaker and DeAngelo Williams as well as WR Philly Brown. Note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five off a loss vs. a division rival, while Carolina has seen it dip below the number in five of its last six vs. NFC West division opponents. The situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest.

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This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets.

While they continue to lose, the Jets are looking much better on both sides of the ball and I think can put it all together today and take advantage of a Bills team which is now trending in the opposite direction; when the final whistle sounds, I like New York to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Buffalo comes in injured on the offensive side of the ball and I think that will be too much for it overcome. Buffalo actually ranked second with 144.2 rushing YPG last year, but the club has dropped to 19th in 2014 and the situation got a lot worst with co-starters Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both going down in last week’s 17-16 home win over the Vikings on Sunday. This is going to put an inordinate amount of pressure on QB Kyle Orton and I like New York to finally take advantage today. After losing 31-0 at San Diego on October 5th and 31-17 to Denver the following week, the Jets took New England down to the wire last week and racked up 423 yards in the process. RB Chris Ivory had 107 rushing yards and a TD and had 98 yards and a second in the most recent meeting with Buffalo, a 37-14 road loss back on November 17th. QB Geno Smith is coming off his best outing of the season, he was 20 of 34 for 225 yards and a TD with zero INT’s. And now Smith has a new target to throw to in Percy Harvin. Note that Buffalo is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog of 3 points or less, while New York is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 vs. division opponents. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the JETS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ASSASSIN on the UNDER between the Houston Texans and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

I think these teams are going to play to a hard-fought UNDER on Monday night. Both clubs come in at 3-3, the Steelers have actually alternated wins and losses through their first six and will be extremely motivated to atone for a listless 31-10 setback at Cleveland last weekend. Tonight’s the night the Steelers can make their move though as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd (note that Pittsburgh has won six of eight at Heinz): "There's no time to panic," said Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger earlier in the week. "You guys are waiting for us to panic. We're not panicking." Roethlisberger though has been his most inconsistent of his career so far this season, last week he posted a campaign-low 64.4 passer rating, going just 21 of 42 for 228 yards and an INT. “Big Ben” will need to be wary of Texans defensive star JJ Watt, who leads the league with 20 hits on QB’s so far, posting four of his team’s ten total sacks. Also note that Houston is expected to have rookie LB Jadeveon Clowney back in the line-up, out since Week 1 with a knee issue. The Texans has been plagued by slow starts this year and that was once again the case vs. the Colts last week, after falling behind 24-0 after one quarter, the team would storm back, only to come up short in the 33-28 setback; note that it was the fifth time this year that Houston has been shutout in the first quarter, including in four straight with the offense averaging a paltry 40.5 yards in the process. And that doesn’t bode well for the Texans as Pittsburgh has been giving up just 44.7 YPG in the first quarter so far this season. Houston’s main issue is a big one, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is in my opinion, not a long term solution for the team, he’s been particularly slow in the first quarters of games as well, he in fact ranks last in the AFC with a 58.9 passer rating in that frame (and note that that number drops to a miserable 21.8 over the past four games). Both of these defenses catch a break this week, neither team’s offense is playing with much chemistry or consistency right now: note that Houston has seen the total go UNDER the number in 15 of its last 16 when playing the role of underdog and in 12 of its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses. And note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go UNDER the number in 14 of its last 24 as a favorite and in both MNF games it’s played over the last two seasons. I think that the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed clearly point to the UNDER as the savvy wager in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Indianapolis Colts.

These are two teams which can put points on the board at a prodigious rate, but I feel the conditions are right for a slower-paced “chess match” style of contest where field position becomes paramount in the outcome, so in my opinion all signs point to this one falling below the posted number. I think the home side comes in a bit complacent here, and that’s going to be dangerous vs. this hungry Bengals team which will be desperate to turn things around after a sluggish patch. Cincinnati is coming off a couple of high-scoring games, a poor 43-17 setback to New England and then last week’s 37-37 tie with Carolina. However, it’s not all doom and gloom for the Bengals who still lead the AFC North: "I can't look behind. It does no good looking back," coach Marvin Lewis assessed earlier in the week. "There's too much ahead to look back all the time, and there's too much change in the future to look back. You're wasting your time look backwards." After back-to-back losses, the Colts have reeled off four-straight wins led by QB Andrew Luck who leads the NFL with 1,987 passing yards and 17 TD’s. Last week Indianapolis held on for a 33-28 win over the Texans on Thursday night. Note that Cincinnati will once again be without the services of star receiver AJ Green because of a toe injury; expect the team to lean even more on RB Giovanni Benard who had a career high 137 rushing yards on 18 carries last week. If Cincinnati has any shot at pulling off an upset, obviously it needs to tighten up on the defensive end, it’s been a weakness the last two games: "We really have to go back and just do our jobs on defense," Lewis said. "We're trying to do too much, and guys need to relax and do their thing, and keep doing your job consistently play after play after play." Note that the Bengals have seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of their last 14 as an underdog, while Indianapolis has seen it dip below the posted number in four of its last six as a home favorite of 3 points or less. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the savvy wager in this contest.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Carolina Panthers and the Green Bay Packers.

Carolina has seen the total go OVER the number in four of six this year, including the last four straight and last week’s 37-37 tie with Cincinnati. Green Bay has seen the total go OVER the number in five of six, including three straight and last week’s come from behind 27-24 win over Miami. While they haven’t played against each other since 2011, it’s still significant to note that the total has gone OVER the number in the last four in the series. All of these OVER trends collide on Sunday afternoon, making the UNDER the sharp wager in this contest. "Any time you overcome adversity, you have this experience to build off. That's why you play. This is an excellent character win," said Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy after last week’s last second victory. "We knew this would be a tough game coming down in the heat. We said we weren't worried about it and we weren't worried about it, but the fact is we're from Wisconsin." QB Aaron Rodgers numbers are a bit skewed though, note that he is in fact averaging just 236.5 YPG so far. Cam Newton and the Panthers have also been putting up some big numbers, before last week’s high-scoring tie, they beat Chicago 31-24 in Week 5. Note that Newton is going to get some much needed help back this week with the expected returnt of RB Jonathan Stewart who has been out with a knee injury. Green Bay will also be looking to establish its run game, Rodgers has had to carry the load as the Packrs are averaging only 94.8 rushing yards to rank 24th in the league, down significantly from last season’s mark of 133.5; expect the home side to make this a point of emphasis today as the Panthers are giving up a league-worst 5.5 per attempt. While the majority goes one way, we’ll go the other, this total is higher than what it should be in my opinion, all signs point to the UNDER as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints.

The Lions own the league’s best defensive unit, but I think are going to come back down to Earth today vs. a determined Drew Brees and company; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And I think the Saints’ defense comes to play today, Detroit’s offense is stalled right now and I think will once again have its hands full this afternoon. Note that Brees is 4-0 as a starter vs. Detroit, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for an average of 379.3 yards with 14 TDs and one INT for a stellar 133.8 rating. While his 7.2 yards per attempt is his lowest mark in four years this season, note that Brees still ranks second in the NFL in averaging 314.8 YPG, not surprisingly then the Saints come in as the No. 2 offense at 442.8. Detroit amassed just 255 yards of offense last week but would still beat the hapless Vikings 17-3 last Sunday. Situationally, this is also a great play for us as New Orleans is coming off its bye following a momentum and confidence building 37-31 home win over the Bucs on October 5th. While New Orleans will likely be without the services of star TE Jimmy Graham again this week, note that they still put a season high for points and yards with 511 in the win over the Bucs without him as well. So while the Saints defense hasn’t been setting any records this year, there’s no question that it catches a break in facing the anemic Lions unit. Note that Detroit is likely to once again be without the services of star receiver Calvin Johnson because of an ankle injury; also note that RB Reggie Bush is still dealing with ankle injury as well. Note that New Orleans is 2-0 ATS the last two seasons following its bye week, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory over a division rival. I think Brees has one of his most productive games and his defense follows suit; play on the SAINTS.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders.

If you are a long time follower or client of mine, you know that I am primarily a situational handicapper which also likes to take advantage of lop-sided trends and numbers. Yesterday I had a play on North Carolina which was 0-5 ATS vs. Notre Dame which was 4-1 ATS; that was a great cover for me. Here is another such situation, this time on the pro gridiron: San Diego is 5-0 ATS while Oakland is 0-4 SU (just 2-2 ATS). With a week off to prepare for this game, I think the home side comes in focused and catches a complacent Chargers team off-guard, ultimately coming away with at least the ATS cover. San Diego comes in banged up, it’s going to have to start its fourth center after Doug Legursky went down with a knee injury in last Sunday’s 31-0 home win over the Jets. Note that the Bolts also lost backup RB Donald Brown to a concussion (starter Ryan Mathews has been out since Week 2). Slowing down red hot Philip Rivers will be top priority for Raiders’ interim head coach Tony Sporano, the Chargers pivot has thrown for an average of 345.8 yards in his last four road games vs. the Raiders. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game today for the home side to help in trying to limit the time that Rivers is on the field, Sporano has already said he’ll make it a point of emphasis for his team which ranks last in the league. Rookie QB Derek Carr will once again be under center, he was an effecient 16 for 25 for 146 yards, one TD and one INT in the London game. Note that San Diego is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven “October” games, while Oakland is 2-0 ATS the last two season following its bye week. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to OAKLAND as the sharp wager in this contest.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets.

The panic button has officially been “hit” in New York, I think the desperate Jets keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a classic case of “David vs. Goliath” as Peyton Manning faces a New York defense which is tied with Jacksonville for the second-most TD’s through the air allowed. The Jets have also managed just one pick so far. Manning posted 479 yards in last week’s 41-20 win over Arizona. New York though does have some positives on the defensive side of the ball, as it’s tied with Buffalo for the league’s most sacks and has allowed just 320.8 YPG, including only 83 on the ground. Of course, that turns the one dimensional Bronco offense even more so; note that Denver ranks 29th in the league in rushing with an average of just 79.5. And note that starting RB Montee Ball has now been lost for a few weeks because of a groin injury. Jets’ coach Rex Ryan knows his job is on the line: "You're right, if that's the case and we don't get this thing on the right track, I don't think for a minute I'll be here," he said on a radio show this week. "I know I won't, but I believe this team will right itself and we'll find a way." Embattled QB Geno Smith will once again get the start despite his horrid first half vs. the Chargers (backup Mike Vick wasn’t much better). Note that Smith will definitely benefit from the expected return of receiver Eric Decker who missed last week with a hamstring issue. It’s important to note, already 0-1 ATS this year in games played on “turf”, Manning and company are just 2-7 ATS their last nine in the same position. And note that New York is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10.5 points range. I am not calling for an outright upset, but do expect the JETS to sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans.

While the outright win isn’t out of the question in this game, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on what I feel is an undervalued home side. This is a big game for both teams, but obviously Houston will be the hungrier; the Texans are coming off a dreadful 2013/14 season, but with a win tonight can take over sole possession of the AFC South and avoid a fourth consecutive loss in this series. The Texans will once again be leaning heavily on RB Arian Foster who had 157 yards and two TD’s in Sunday’s 20-17 OT loss at Dallas; Foster is second in the league in averaging 101.0 YPG thus far. Note that Foster has been money on the short week of work as well, he’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four TD’s in three “Thursday Night” contests: “It's a huge game for us," Texans’ offensive tackle Duane Brown said last night. "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy." Indianapolis has won seven straight “Thursday night” games, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today against this talented and revenge minded Texans’ defensive unit. If ever the Colts were going to have a letdown, I think this week qualifies, they’ve been playing at an extremely high level, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 105-47; a quick turn around on the road and a nationally televised divisional contest is asking a lot, even for QB Andrew Luck. Note, the Colts offense has taken a hit as well, as starting guards Hugh Thornton and Jack Mewhort will miss the game with injuries. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the home side’s Andre Johnson who has averaged 158.3 yards while totaling 27 receptions and five TD’s in his last three home games against the Colts. I think the situation favors the home side; play on the TEXANS.

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This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the UNDER between the Seattle Seahawks and the Washington Redskins.

For a number of different reasons I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. Seattle returns to the Nation’s capital after a bye-week, it would hold on for a thrilling 26-20 OT win over the Broncos last time out: “I don't think anyone ever doubts Russell. He's just too good," Seattle tight end Zach Miller said of his Super Bowl Champion QB after the victory. Note, Washington will definitely have its hands full here, Seattle knows the importance of this game as it will now play 13 weeks in a row. It’s also important to note that Seattle has won eight straight on Monday nights. The Redskins will surely be hungry as well to atone for last week’s 45-14 home loss to the Giants on Thursday night, QB Kirk Cousins is coming off his worst start in getting picked off a career-high four times. Cousins and the rest of the Skins offense will be leaning heavily on RB Alfred Morris today, he’s fifth in the NFL with 316 yards thus far. Note that Seattle’s offense is not 100% right now, it will be without the services of Miller who underwent ankle surgery last week. And that means we can expect the visitors to also establish the run game today, Marshawn Lynch has 234 yards so far in 2014. Note that Seattle has seen the total go UNDER the number in two of its last three following a bye week, while Washington has seen it dip blelow the posted number in eight of its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses; the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this contest.

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This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Jets.

I jumped on this line when it first hit the board and was able to get 7.5. Most everyone would be able to at least get 7 though. Regardless, I beileve the hungry Jets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the backdoor once the final whistle sounds. San Diego is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS so far and I think will come in a little complacent here. If QB Philip Rivers is going to lead his team to a fourth-straight victory, he’ll have to do it by sending the Jets to their longest losing streak in seven years. Note that New York is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS thus far. The Jets lone victory came in Week 1, a 19-14 effort over the Raiders. Obviously New York is going to be the “hungrier” team in this matchup, its season is on the line today, another loss and the Jets will be starting to plan for next year already. The Jets defense has actually been a bright spot and has kept the team in games so far, the unit will have its hands full today with Philip Rivers who owns a league-best 114.5 QB rating; Rivers is coming off his best start of the year in a 33-14 victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Note though, Rivers got the job done against one of the worst units in the league and covered up for an anemic run game which will once again be without the services of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead; I simply can’t see the home side getting away with that this week vs. this capable Jets front line and secondary which allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and which rank third in total defense at 291.2. This is also a “do or die” game for New York QB Geno Smith as the fan base has grown restless and would welcome the shift to backup Michael Vick; Smith was 17 of 33 for 209 yards and one TD and one INT in last week’s 24-17 loss to Detroit. Coach Rex Ryan is sticking with his man: "Because I believe in him," Ryan said of his beleagured pivot. "I believe that we're going to get it done and I believe that he's going to be one of the main reasons we get it done and get it turned. I don't anticipate us as a team continuing to struggle. I think this team needs a win in the worst way, and I think that will help us more than anything. We have guys that believe in each other and I think, to a man, that our team believes in Geno." The schedule ahead is an absolute beast as well for the visitors, with games vs. Denver and New England on the horizon, a step in the “right” direction starting this week is a necessity. Is a date on the road against lowly Oakland a reason to “look ahead” this week for San Diego? Probably not, but with a couple of cream puffs back to back, I can’t see how it won’t be a bit complacent today, in my opinion the savvy move is in grabbing as many points as you can in this one; play on the JETS.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos.

Arizona is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, including having won the last two in a row (both SU and ATS). Denver is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Broncos have had a week off after falling short in a 26-20 OT setback in Seattle two weeks ago. When taking everything into consideration, in my opinion, one of these clubs is over achieving and one is under performing. Suffice it to say, when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Arizona is also coming off its bye week. Arizona has been getting the job done with a stout defense which has held the opposition to an average of just 15 PPG, but I think it will finally be exposed today vs. a confident, rested and hungry Peyton Manning. In fact, it’s hard to believe that the Cards are on the verge of a 4-0 start to the season as they’ve been playing with backup QB Drew Stanton who has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes. Denver doesn’t run the ball much, which is good as that’s a strength of the Cardinals. The home side finally gets a boost on the defensive side of the ball with the expected return of Danny Trevathan; Trevathan was the team’s leading tackler last season and has missed the first three games with injury. Manning has dominated at Mile High, he’s thrown 55 TD’s to just eight INT’s in 18 regular-season home games while going 16-2 in the procees. The thin air has been the Cardinals nemesis, they are 0-4 in Denver while getting outscored 106-32. Rejoice Bronco’s fans, this is the break out game you’ve been waiting for this year, look for the home side to lay the hammer down; play on DENVER.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF THE GAME on the UNDER between Chicago and Carolina.

For a number of different reasons I expect this total to stay below the posted number once the final whistle sounds. What is the first thing you think of when you think about these two clubs? For me it’s “great defensive play.” True, the Bears defensive unit is not what it used to be, but the organization is not that far removed from being one of the most adept on that side of the ball; and certainly Carolina has established itself as one of the top defensive clubs in the NFL over the last couple of years. That’s why it may come as a surprise to learn that Chicago has seen the total go OVER the number in three of its four games so far this season, including three in a row, while Carolina has seen it eclipse the number in its last two. Note that the Panthers have also lost their last two games, both SU and ATS, most recently an embarrassing 38-10 setback in Baltimore last week; in the two games that Carolina has won (both SU and ATS), it’s held its opposition to a combined 21 points. Clearly if the Panthers are going to win this season, it’s going to be on the back of their defensive unit. If Chicago wins this contest, it will have won its first three games away from home for the first time in eight seasons, but of course handing Carolina its third straight loss is easier said than done. Chicago’s defense will once again have to carry the load here, QB Jay Cutler has been as inconsistent as ever this year, trading good games with bad. Cutler will also be leaning on a run game which suddenly found its footing in posting 235 yards last week, Matt Forte had 166 of them. Stopping the run is normally a strength of Carolina, but after the first four weeks it ranks a disappointing 27th in the league in that department: “Stopping the run is simple," Carolina linebacker Luke Kuechly assessed earlier in the week. "If you're not in your gaps, they are going to rush you. If you're in your gaps, they can't run the ball. It's cliche, and as easy as it sounds, that's what it comes down to." Note that the Bears will welcome back end Jared Allen, who was out last week with a bout of pneumonia; Chicago clearly struggled to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers last week after it had recored seven total sacks in its previous two games. And that is going to spell trouble for Carolina QB Cam Newton, who has just three TD’s through the air so far, while also being sacked nine times (note that Newton has also always had his hands full with the Bears whenever he’s faced them as well, he has a single TD to go along with three INT’s in two matchups, both which were losses). Note that Carolina has seen the total go UNDER the posted number in 12 of its last 19 as a favorite and in 12 of its last 19 in front of the home town crowd, while Chicago has seen it dip below the number in six of its last ten following a divisional contest. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the UNDER as the sharp wager in this one.

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This is a 10* TOTAL ART OF WAR on the OVER between Buffalo and Detroit.

For a number of different reasons I believe these teams will combine to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch and will recommend a play on the OVER. So far Buffalo has seen the total go UNDER the number in all four of its games, while Detroit has seen it dip below the number in three of four, including three straight. While they haven’t played against each other since 2010, it’s still significant to note that the total has gone UNDER the number in five of these teams last five in the series. All of these completely lop-sided UNDER trends collide on Sunday afternoon and suffice it to say, I’m looking for a big time “correction” to occur here. As with most of my totals, this is a situationally trend based pick and it doesn’t matter who is on the field of play today. So that means, if Detroit star WR Calvin Johnson doesn’t play, I still love this selection; I am basing this pick on entirely different criteria than who is playing and who isn’t. For the record, I don’t do this with all of my picks, I use a wide variety of methodoligies and systems and believe that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to succeed in this industry. Detroit sits alone atop the division after its 24-17 victory over the Jets last week: "If anybody should know better than to get caught looking ahead, it's us," Lions’ RB Reggie Bush warned earlier in the week. "Last year is a perfect example of that." The Lions have been pretty stingy on the defensive side of the ball, but despite that and also the fact that the Bills will be starting a new QB today, I believe the conditions are right for a higher-scoring shootout. Buffalo turns to veteran Kyle Orton who takes over the controls for the 2-2 Bills. Orton will be tasked in helping an offense which currently ranks 27th overall, averaging 320.8 YPG; Orton though has plenty of talent surrounding him, RB’s CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are an imposing duo to stop, while WR Sammy Watkins has big play potential as well. I think Orton and company come in focused and put some points on the board today, all signs point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Patriots offense is stagnant and I expect this team to falter on the road in this hostile environment; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the home side. The Pats defense has been uncharacteristically carrying the load so far this year, but it will now have to deal with the Chiefs starting RB Jamaal Charles. What’s up with Tom Brady and company? The Pats offense has failed to go over 300 yards in two of three games. Not surprisingly then, Brady ranks 30th in the league with a 5.54 yards per attempt and his poor 82.9 passer rating is 23rd. And get this…Brady is just 1 of 13 attempts of 21 yards or longer downfield thus far. How can the Pats be 3 to 3.5 point favorites in this spot?! It can’t be blamed entirely on the veteran though, his supporting cast is pretty weak, top receiver Julian Edelman leads the team in receptions, TE Rob Gronkowski has been a shell of his former self; also note that Brady’s patchwork offensive line has been a seive thus far in giving up seven sacks. The run game has also failed Brady, it’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. As mentioned off the top, New England’s offense has definitely picked up the slack, but I think will have its hands full here with a suddently confident and under the radar Chiefs team. QB Alex Smith was 19 for 25 for 186 yards and three TD’s in a 34-15 win at Miami last week. Charles didn’t even play, Knile Davis would go for 132 yards on a career high 32 carries. This game means a lot more to Kansas City as it has to play at San Francisco and then San Diego after this home contest. Note that New England is 7-10 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while KC is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. The situation, the trends and the numbers all point to KANSAS CITY as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Blake Bortles era has arrived in Jacksonville, I think the rookie can do enough to keep this one competitive and look for his team to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. While it won’t be an easy task, I think this does set up as a letdown/look ahead spot for the home side; after a tough 18-17 loss in Arizona to open the season, San Diego would beat Seattle 30-21 in Week 2 and then would hold on for another upset win in Buffalo last Sunday in a 22-10 victory. Dating back to last season the Chargers have now covered five straight. Jacksonville on the other hand has lost six straight, both SU and ATS since last year. Bortles was inserted into last week’s 44-17 loss at Indianapolis at halftime when his team trailed 30-0 and would finish 14 of 24 for 223 yards and two TD’s, as well as 30 yards on two carries. Let’s face it, Jacksonville is a poor team, it had scored one TD in its last 10 quarters before Bortles was forced into action: “It was definitely good to get some game action before you go into the week of practice," Bortles said afterwards. "So I mean kind of taking it one day at a time, try to learn from everything, every experience, situation you get put in and move on." Not surprisingly, this sets up as a revenge game for the visitors who would fall 24-6 at home to San Diego last year. I played the Chargers last week, so far veteran QB Philip Rivers has been pretty good this year, he has five TD’s, no INT’s and a 74.2 completion percentage over his last two games. The visitors catch a break though in facing a depleted Chargers backfield; already without the services of starting RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego lost Danny Woodhead for the year after he suffered a broken leg in the win over Buffalo. That means that Donald Brown, who had 31 carries for just 62 yards last week, and undrafted rookie Branden Oliver will shoulder the load. Also note that Bortles and the offense also catch a break in not having to face LB Manti Te’o, who leads the team in tackles but who fractured his foot last Sunday. Note that Jacksonville is 3-2 ATS in its last five after a loss vs. a division rival and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 10 points or more. And note that San Diego is 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, 0-1 ATS the last two years as a favorite of 10 points or more, just 8-9 ATS its last 17 in front of the home town crowd and a sub-par 6-8 ATS its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to JACKSONVILLE as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* AFC SOUTH ART OF WAR on the Tennessee Titans.

Indianapolis started the year 0-2, but QB Andrew Luck put together arguably the best outing of his career in a 44-17 win over Jacksonville last week, he matched a career-high with four TD’s to go along with 370 yards to help his team avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Luck has been helped with a strong run game, the Colts have totaled 313 yards on the ground thus far. Conversely, Tennessee looked shell shocked in last week’s 33-7 loss in Cincinnati on Sunday, but note that the club had heard about former kicker Rob Bironas’ death just a few hours before hand. That said, after a nice 26-10 win over Kansas City to open the year, the Titans have been outscored 59-17 in back-to-back defeats. Last week though it was clear that the team was collectively thinking about other things, it committed 11 penalties for 99 yards (note that Tennessee has been flagged 28 times in total this year for 239 yards). QB Jake Locker will be a game time decision, he hurt his wrist last week: "It was encouraging that we got to see Jake to a little bit, but that's what we anticipated," coach Whisenhunt said mid week. "Hopefully, it will progress more, and we'll see what we can do tomorrow and that will determine a lot." If Locker can’t go, it’s next man up in Charlie Whitehurst or sixth round pick Zach Mettenberger. The Titans know they are in tough, but if history is any precedence, the defense has to be liking its chances for a bounceback performance here, Luck has topped 240 yards in just one of his four career starts against Tennessee and has four INT’s to two TD’s in those matchups. Note that the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Indianapolis is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a division rival. This is a pivotal division matchup, Tennessee’s season is basically on the line here, I think the visitors come to play and keep it close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on the TITANS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Jets.

From a situational stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, for a number off different reasons/factors I feel that the home side offers tremendous value in this spot. Let’s start off with the Bears: Chicago lost a heart breaker at home to the Bills in its opener, only to rally in the second half last Sunday night to beat the 49ers 28-20 as a 7.5 point underdog (I had Chicago in that one). The Bears would avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole and have to be feeling pretty good about that obviously. It’s tough playing on the road in the NFL, and it’s tough playing back to back contests away from friendly confines, not to mention two Nationally televised games in a row; I simply feel that it’s asking too much for this team to once again gut out a victory in another hostile environment and it will be especially tough I think against what I feel is a vastly under-rated home side. The Jets come into this game at 1-1 as well, they’d hold on for a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, before letting a lead slip away in a hard-fought 31-24 setback to the Packers last weekend. Taking a closer look at tonight’s starting QB’s, Jay Cutler of Chicago has a 61.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs and three INTs in a 6-1 run on Monday nights. Geno Smith of New York was great in his lone Monday Night start as well, passing for 199 yards and three TDs while also compiling a career best 147.7 passer rating in a 30-28 win over Atlanta on October 7th. There is a possibility that Smith will not have the services of WR Eric Decker who will be a game time decision. However, the injury bug is much worse on the other side of the field, the Bears were unsure if top receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery would even play last week (both did, both are still ailing this week). But defensively is where Chicago really got pummeled, it was already playing without center Roberto Garza and LG Matt Slauson before also losing CB Charles Tillman, safety Chris Conte and tackle Jeremiah Ratliff in last week’s win; if any play tonight, don’t expect to see much production. Another weak point for Chicago was the run game, Matt Forte finished with 21 yards on 12 attempts, which is bad news as New York is giving up a league-low 52.5 yards and 2.8 per attempt. When Cutler is forced to pass and unable to rely on a run game to keep defenses honest is when he’s at his worst, I’m predicting a long night for the oft-maligned pivot who has a reputation of looking brilliant one week and absurdly horrible the next. Chicago looked pretty good on defense last week and it will once again have its hands full with a Jets run unit which ranks first in the NFL in averaging 179 YPG; one player you’ll want to keep your eyes on is RB Chris Ivory who has rushed for 145 yards and two major scores on a 6.3 per attempt average (note that the Bears are giving up a poor 5.4 YPC). Note that Chicago is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog, while the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 3 points or less. There are a plethora of factors working against the visitors, all signs point to NEW YORK as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SLUG-FEST on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Carolina is 2-0, it would beat Tampa Bay 20-14 on the road, before then beatting Detroit 24-7 last week. After opening Week 1 with a win, the Steelers will be looking to rebound here after a listless 26-6 loss at Baltimore on Thursday; Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 37 for 217 yards. The Steelers defense will will be looking to take advantage of a Panthers team which is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which is down significantly from last season’s 4.2 mark. So why the drop off you ask? A big reason why is because DeAngelo Williams has been out due to a thigh injury, Jonathan Stewart carried the ball 15 times for just 37 yards last week; note that Williams is likely going to play today, but certainly he won’t be at 100%. It’s a daunting task for any team in facing the stout Panthers defense, but the Steelers will hammer and test that front seven, RB Le’Veon Bell has proved to be a bright spot for the team in averaging 5.3 yards per carry and his 304 yards from scrimmage ranks second in the NFL. From a statistical standpoint, it’s important to note that Pittsburgh is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests. There was a lot of hype surrounding the upgrades to the Steelers offense in the offseason and so far they haven’t performed, but I think this is the perfect stage. I’m expecting a battle down to the end, and as such, will grab as many points as I can get; play on PITTSBURGH.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks.

Here we go. It’s the Super Bowl rematch (Seattle would hammer Denver 43-8 at MetLife Stadium in the most lopsided Super Bowl in over 20 years last season). Both of these teams got caught looking ahead to this contest, Seattle is coming off a straight up loss, while the Broncos would allow the wounded Chiefs to hang around in an eventual 24-17 win. Of course Denver is out for some “revenge” today, but lets not also forget that in a way, the Broncos already did get their revenge when these teams met in the Preseason. Both teams are going to be amped, each feels that it has something to prove. Denver will still be looking for revenge and its defense will certainly be playing with a chip on its shoulder. Seattle wants to prove that it’s still the best and that last year’s result was no fluke. Both team’s will also be looking to bounce back after their sub-par efforts last week: "I'm sure this is a really important game to them again. As it is to us," Seattle coach Pete Carroll confirmed earlier in the week. "I think there was something going on in the preseason. I think it was a big deal for them. I don't blame them one bit." The Seahawks vaunted secondary can’t be happy after Philip Rivers threw for a 124.2 passer rating in last week’s loss in San Diego, the highest against Seattle since 2010. While it’s 2-0, Denver has looked shaky at times this year, it would have to hold on vs. Kansas City last week and it would also barely survive a similar scare in Week 1 vs. Indianapolis, escaping with a 31-24 victory. I think it’s extremely significant to note that Denver is averaging just 343 yards of total offense this year compared to the 457.3 it put up last season. And that is significant, as Seattle is 18-1 at home with QB Russell Wilson as a stater and the Seahawks have held teams to an average of 13.3 points during those games, giving up more than 20 just twice. I think these two offenses come in amped up and that adrenaline works against them, look for the defenses to take center stage early and for this total to sneak UNDER the number once the final whistle sounds.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oakland Raiders.

It’s do or die for the Raiders, an 0-3 start and they’ll be looking ahead to next season. And unfortunately for them, that’s going to be reality, while I don’t foresee the visitors being able to take this game outright, I do think they’ll make it a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for them to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded on Sunday. After losing their opener to Miami, the Patriots would bounce back with a 30-7 win over the Vikings last Sunday. There are things to be concerned about though if you’re a New England fan, the offense is stagnant, Tom Brady and company would finish with a total of 292 yards, the team was fortunate to get a blocked FG for a TD as well as four INT’s to avoid the 0-2 start to the season. Brady finished with a sub-par 149 yards and ranks 28th in the league in QB rating at 78.8, the lowest of his career. New England is in fact 25th or lower in a number of offensive categories, including yards per game. The Patriots have also been uncharacteristically sloppy, they have 24 infractions accepted against them for a league-high 263 yards so far. I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that Oakland is a great team that just hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, that’s definitely not the case. But I do think that it’s better than what it’s shown so far. Certainly the Raiders will look to tighten up with their run defense, they gave up 188 yards to Houston last week and will be leaning heavily upon former Pro Bowlers LaMarr Woodley, Justin Tuck and Antonio Smith. The offense looked inept in its first game as rookie Derek Carr had just 158 yards in the Raiders opening loss to the Jets, but looked much better against Houston’s tough defensive unit, finishing with 364 last week. It’s significant to note that Oakland is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two years as a road underdog of 10 points or more, while New England is 1-5 ATS in the same time frame as a favorite of 10 points or more. Simply too many points to be giving up to this desperate team in my opinion, play on OAKLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins.

The Washington Redskins (1-1) got back on track last week with the insertion of Kirk Cousins and I think they do enough to at least cover the spread in Philadelphia.  The Redskins may have lost Robert Griffin in the 41-10 win over Jacksonville in Week 2 but the offense looked even better with backup Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins completed his first 12 passes and finished 22 of 33 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the woeful Jaguars. Alfred Morris ran for 85 yards, including two scores while Niles Paul had 99 yards to lead the team in receiving. Washington struggled in Week 1 vs. Houston’s dominant defensive play, but had no problems with the inept Jaguars in piling up 485 yards of total offense. The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) are riding high after a come from behind 30-27 win on Monday night football over Indianapolis. Darren Sproles had seven receptions for 152 yards to go along with a touchdown run. The Eagles became the fourth team in 30 years to win consecutive games in which it trailed in the second half by 14 or more points. There is a lot of hype surrounding the Eagles right now, but I think this is a few too many points for them to lay in this situation; this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot in my opinion. I am not the only one who thinks RG3’s injury is a blessing in disguise for Washington as Cousins is a far better fit for head coach Jay Gruden’s offense: "He's handled being a backup like a pro,” Gruden remarked of Cousins earlier in the week. "He's waited patiently, and now his time is going to come to really take this thing and run with it." The Redskins come into this contest with double revenge on their minds as well after losing both tilts to their division rivals last year (both SU and ATS). Keep in mind the Eagles are just 4-13 ATS in home games the last two seasons and only 1-3 ATS as home favorites of more than 3.5 points in the same span. Philadelphia will also be working on a short work week after the Monday Night game on the road. I think Washington has a lot to prove here and will play more desperately than a 2-0 Eagles team that has gotten away with some sloppy defensive play over the first two weeks. All signs point to a comfortable cover for WASHINGTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Bears.

Chicago comes into this game down a few pieces, but I think in the end can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door once the final whistle sounds. Chicago suffered a bad beat at home in a 23-20 OT loss to the Bills last week and will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season; also note that there will be added incentive for a big effort here today as Chicago begins a stretch with six of its next eight away from friendly confines: “It's hard to win on the road in this league, so you want to start off the season with a win at home," said Bears’ RB Matt Forte afterwards. "It's just as simple as taking care of the ball a little better, and in the red zone scoring more points when we get down there." As mentioned off the top, Chicago may have to deal with the absence of receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. However, both are listed as game time decisions, each got in some minor work in Friday’s practice. Regardless, the Bears are still dangerous on the offensive side of the ball with the likes of receiver Santonio Holmes, TE Martellus Bennett and the ever dangerous Forte. And note, San Francisco comes into this contest with injuries on the defensive side of the ball as CB’s Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver are out indefinitely after ailments suffered in last week’s win. Cutler though will clearly need to be careful with the ball, all he has to do is look at Tony Romo’s three INT’s last week; Culter though looked pretty solid in last Sunday’s loss, while he had two INT’s, he’d finish with 349 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Bears know they have to be better: "You know San Fran is going to come out and run some of that zone-read," Chicago DE Willie Young said earlier in the week. "I wouldn't be surprised if we get that for the rest of the year. That's not just singling us out. It's across the league. Everybody's buying stock in that particular play so we're just going to have to be sound for stopping that zone read." From a situational stand point, could this be a “look ahead” spot for San Francisco? Perhaps, it’s definitely worth noting that the 49ers hit the road for their first divisional contest of the year in Arizona against a 1-0 Cardinals team which is favored in New York today. I won’t call for the outright upset, but do think that all of the strong situational and motivational factors I listed above are definitely working in favor of the visitors today, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on CHICAGO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER between the Houston Texans and the Oakland Raiders.

As with most of my Over/Under plays (in all sports), I feel this is a great situational move, Houston looks to build off a successful opening victory while the Raiders will be pushing the pace in this one to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole; when all is said and done, I look for this total to eclipse the number as the game comes down the stretch. The Texans beat the Redskins 17-6 last week: "It's a long season, but it was a good win," said new Houston head coach Bill O'Brien. "We'll enjoy it but it's (over) quickly that we'll move on to next week." Oakland definitely catches a break here though as defensive specialist Jadeveon Clowney was injured in the win over the Redskins and will be out for 4 to 6 weeks. However, there’s no doubt that Oakland needs to be careful, the Texans looked great defensively last week, JJ Watt blocked an extra point attempt, he had a sack, a fumble recovery and a pair of tackles for a loss as well (note that Houston would recover two fumbles in the red zone). The offense can’t be overlooked either, Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was decent in finishing 14 of 22 for 206 yards and a TD, while RB Arian Foster had 103 yards on 27 carries. The Raiders will be hungry after their 19-14 setback to the Jets in Week 1, QB Derek Carr was 20 of 32 for 151 yards and a pair of TD passes. Houston though will be looking to spoil Carr’s chances, while it did break its 14-game overall losing skid from last year, it still needs to snap its seven-game road slide, a date in Oakland is just what the doctor ordered as the Raiders dropped their final four home games last year by an average of 19.5 points. It’s interesting to note that Houston has seen the total go OVER the number in both games that it’s played over the last two season as a road favorite of 3 points or less, while Oakland has seen it sail above the number in six of its last 11 when the total in the contest is set between 35.5 and 42 points. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the OVER as the sharp wager in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Redskins.

It’s only Week 2, but this has to be considered an almost a do-or-die game for the Redskins. A loss to the lowly Jaguars and an 0-2 record would be devastating and as such, I think it will be all hands on deck in the Nation’s capital and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Jacksonville looked decent in jumping out to an early 17-0 lead in Philadelphia but would then characteristically fall apart and ultimately get crushed 34-17. Washington didn’t look much better, but drew a tough opening game on the road with an equally as determined Houston team which would win win 17-6 in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville comes in with some injury issues as well as top WR’s Marquise Lee and Cecil Shorts III are limited or unable to go with hamstring problems. There were a lot of expectations for the Redskins last year, but QB Robert Griffin III would take a major step back and the team would finish 3-13 SU, including losing its final eight in a row. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Griffin and Co. last week though, the unit would generate 372 total yards; note that Griffin himself went 29 of 37 overall. The run unit looked great too and will look to take advantage of the Jaguars suspect line; note that Alfred Morris and Roy Helu would finish with a respectable 137 yards on 18 carries. I think Griffin can bounce back here, Houston’s front 7 is dangerous, while the Jags showed some life in the first half last week, the unit looked inept in the second. Conversely, I think Jags’ QB Chad Henne will have his hands full today with Washignton’s dynamic pass-rushing duo in Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. Ultimately, I think WASHINGTON can come up with enough big plays like the Eagles did last week and look for the home side to take care of business.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on the Detroit Lions.

I think the home side and new coach Jim Caldwell find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Giants would open 2013/14 by going an NFL-worst 0-6 out of the gates, but then would go 7-3 the rest of the way. It’s a little surprising to me that New York recovered the way it did, especially when you dig a little deeper and take a look at some of the numbers, the Giants finished 28th in the league in scoring and had an NFL-high 44 turnovers. New York would bring in former Green Bay assistant Ben McAdoo at offensive coordinator, his job is to instal the up-tempo West Coast offense, something that veteran QB Eli Manning had difficulties with in the preseason: Don't get me wrong, we're ready for Week 1," Manning explained over the weekend. "But I think as a season goes on, you're always looking to improve, whether you've been in a system for 10 years or whether you have young guys and need guys to step up or you have new players, there's always room for improvement." That certainly doesn’t sound like a person that is 100% confident with what is going on. Detroit’s major issue the last few years has been consistency; both sides of the football are loaded with talent, but something has gone wrong as the group has severely under-performed. That said, Caldwell adopts a team which ranked third in the NFL in passing yards last season; Caldwell has been brought in to properly harness the talents of oft-maligned pivot Matt Stafford: “You can tell he has worked at it even during the summer," Caldwell said of his QB. "In every facet, I can see improvement. Footwork, accuracy, timing, command of the offense, all of those things. So now we get a chance to see if he can put it all together." To me, that sounds like a real assessment, Caldwell isn’t just blowing smoke up the media’s butts for a good soundbite in my opinion. Stafford’s favorite target will once again be star receiver Calvin Johnson, but will also welcome ex Seattle receiver Golden Tate. While New York did make some upgrades along its atrocious offensive line, I think the unit will have its hands full with Detroit’s opportunistic line and secondary; and that’s bad news for the declining Manning who again led the league in turnovers last year (and note that the Giants run game put up the worst numbers for the franchise in almost 70 years). Unfortunately for Manning and his patchwork run unit, they’ll once again be behind a poor offensive line; note that veteran Chris Snee retired in July, while guard Geoff Schwartz went down with a dislocated toe. New York also got hit on the defensive side of the ball when MLB Jon Beason was injured in OTAs. That’s bad news for the visitors, Stafford is coming off his third straight season of more than 4,500 yards passing and can turn to an electric run game which is led by Reggie Bush who had 1,006 yards on the ground in 2013. While the Giants have taken the last three meetings between the teams (2007, 2010 and last year), I think the conditions are finally right for Stafford and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.

Peyton Manning came up short against his old team last year but I think the prolific pivot will get his revenge tonight and guide the home side to a convincing victory once the final whistle sounds. Since being let go by the Colts, Manning has dominated in Denver, he’s led his team to back-to-back 13 win seasons and last year he’d set an NFL record with 55 TD passes and 5,477 yards. For the most part the Broncos rolled through the 2013 regular season, but their first loss came on Manning’s first visit to Indianapolis as an opponent, a 39-33 setback on October 20th. Both teams comes in with having to deal with some off-field non-sense, Denver will have to overcome the absence of Wes Welker for four games due to violating the league’s drug policy, while the Colts issues’ lie with owner Jim Irsay and his suspension due to a DWI; we’ll call this area a “wash” then. Manning still has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and TD Julius Thomas. The Colts are coming off back-to-back 11 win seasons under the guidance of Andrew Luck who is going to have his hands full I think in this nationally televised contest, the Broncos upgraded their defense significantly in the offseason by acquiring DB’s Aqib Talib and TJ Ward as well as lineman DeMarcus Ware. After the way the Broncos lost in the Super Bowl, do you think the home side has something to prove tonight? You’d better believe it:”"Season opener, it doesn't get much bigger than this except for the postseason," Manning said. "I've always said that opening day is a playoff-type atmosphere." I like Manning to outduel his counterpart tonight; play on DENVER.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins.

Division rivals means that we can take a look back over the last few years to see if we can find any trends to exploit. This one certainly falls into that category as they’ve played to four-straight UNDERS over 2012/13 and 2013/14; suffice it to say, I think this trend finally gets broken as each team comes into the current campaign filled with optimism. The Patriots won both games in 2012, while the teams would split their contests last season, each prevailing on its home field. The Patriots won 27-17 in November, the Fish returned the favor with a 24-20 win in December. There is reason to believe that both teams are going to be able to put some points on the board this year, and situationally we know that each will be feeling the pressure in this opening contest. It’s hard to win on the road, and doubly so against a division opponent in the season opener, the Patriots will be looking to build off what can only be considered a very successful 2013 performance. New England came within a single game of advancing to the Superbowl despite playing without its primary receiving corp. With a healty unit and some significant upgrades on both sides of the ball, it’s hard not to imagine New England being better this year. This is a big game for Miami too obviously, a straight up win against the division heavy-weight would give it a significant leg-up right out of the gate. This could be the ideal spot for Miami to steal one as well as it will be extremely hot in South Florida at the time, the Dolphins will obviously be more accustomed to the adverse conditions. I think the table is finally set for a higher-scoring affair.

Prediction: New England 27, Miami 24

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This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons.

When you think about these two clubs, what’s the first thing that comes to mind? For me, it starts and ends with the two men under center. The Saints’ Drew Brees will once again be a Top 3 QB pick in every Football pool this year, and while he had a rare off-season in 2013, the Falcons’ go as Matt Ryan goes. So it may come as a surprise to learn that three of these teams last four in the series have gone UNDER the posted number. New Orleans won 23-17 at home in September and 17-13 in Atlanta in late November. For a number of different reasons, I feel that this strong trend gets “bucked” in their 2014/15 opener. After going 7-9 SU in 2012, an effort which saw it miss the postseason for the first time in four years, New Orleans would storm out of the gate in 2013 by winning its first five. Brees was the focal point as he will be once again this season; note that the prolific QB would pass for 5,162 yards and a 68 percent completion rate in 2013 (it was his third season in a row with at least 5,000 passing yards). An 11-5 SU record saw the Saints return to the playoffs where they edged past the Eagles 26-24, stumbling finally in the divisional playoffs to the eventual champion Seattle Seahawks. New Orleans comes into the season as the overwhelming favorite to win the NFC South and is +1,800 to win its second Super Bowl in the last six years. It goes without saying that there is going to be pressure on New Orleans to perform out of the gate. Expectations will be a little less in Atlanta though, which doesn’t mean it won’t be hungry to send an early message and to steal one from the division heavy-weight. Atlanta was plagued by injuries in 2013 and fell from going 13-3 in 2012 to a disappointing 4-12 last year. But with a combination of players returning from injury on both sides of the ball, by holes filled via free angency and a high draft pick in each round, Atlanta has every reason to believe that it can steal this game as well.

Prediction: New Orleans 31, Atlanta 24

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This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between the Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

A couple of division rivals with big expectations collide to open the 2014/15 campaign and while these two teams have played to some traditionally lower-scoring affairs, I think their first game sets up as a higher-scoring shootout. Three of these team’s last four in the series have gone UNDER the number including both last season. Pittsburgh won 27-11 in late November, the total staying below the posted total of 40.5 in that one; the Steelers then also won at home 20-7 in late December, the total staying well UNDER the posted number of 44.5 in that one. However, I feel that all signs point to their opener eclipsing this tiny number. The Browns won just four games in 2013 but come in with optimism with a new head coach, a new front office and with what they hope will be their franchise QB for another decade. However, winning in Pittsburgh against an equally determined Steelers team is not going to be easy. As a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of contests I keep my eyes open for, we can expect the visitors to air out it out today as they try to steal one from the division heavy weight. Pittsburgh closed the 2013 season 8-4 and missed the playoffs only because of a tie-breaker. Despite his age, Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger is still the premier pivot in the division and after the way it started last year, we can absolutely expect the home side to step on the gas from start to finish. All signs finally point to a higher-scoring affair.

Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Cleveland 20

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