Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -115 | 83 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Patrick Mahomes is the same player, but this isn't the same Chiefs team which we saw last year. The defense was always a weak point and it remains a weak point now as well. But the offense isn't "clicking" like it once was and penalties and poor special teams play have led to back-to-back losses for KC. After starting 0-4, the Broncos have now won two in a row. The revenge angle comes into play here for the home side as well, as it's lost seven straight in this series (it's interesting to note though that Broncos' new QB Joe Flacco is 2-0 vs. the Chiefs for his career.) The pick: KC allows over 400 yards per game on defense, which is 29th in the league overall. Also note that Mahomes is in fact nursing a sprained ankle and he's playing without the services of LT Eric Fisher. The KC run game is also non-existent, averaging only 87 YPG. Denver's defense has been a strength of late and I think the unit is going to have another big night tonight. Finally note that the Broncos are interestingly 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday night games, while KC is only 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Broncos. |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette -5.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 82 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: UL Lafayette's four game win streak was snapped in last week's 17-7 loss to App State. The Rajun Cajuns still average 38.2 PPG though and their rushing attack is ranked sixth with an average of 282.2 YPG. Arkansas State is averaging a whopping 40 PPG in the early going, but the Red Wolves defense has been atrocious. Arkansas State enters off a loss as well to Georgia State. The pick: UL Lafayette QB Levi Lewis is going to have a big day in my estimation and he comes in sporting a strong 9:2 TD:INT. The Red Wolves rank 117th in the nation against the run, so Cajuns' RB Trey Regas also looks primed for a huge night. Red Wolves' QB Layne Hatcher has four TD's and two INT's in each of his last two games, but his defense ranks second to last in D1. Finally onte that Arkansas State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games, while UL Lafayette is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisiana Lafayette. |
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10-16-19 | South Alabama +15 v. Troy | Top | 13-37 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: South Alabama is 1-5 and Troy is slightly better at 2-3. Both teams enter off their respective bye weeks. A closer look at South Alabama's schedule though reveals a very difficult one in the early going (Nebraska, Memphis). Jaguars' second year coach Steve Campbell has his team moving in the right direction despite what the win/loss record says. Note that South Alabama held Nebraska to just 2.2 yards per carry. QB Cephus Johnson averaged 12.9 yards per throw and had two TD's and no INT's in his last game. Additionally note that South Alabama is 4-0 ATS in its last four conference contests. The pick: Troy senior QB Kaleb Barker is under center now after starter Brandon Silvers left before the season started, and in his last start Barker had only 92 yards passing on 26 attempts with two INT's. The Trojans rank 124th out of 130 FBS teams in passing yards allower per attempt at 10.22. Note as well that Troy is a terrible 2-9-1 ATS in its last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. In my opinion, this one has "nail-biter" written all over it. Grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on South Alabama. |
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10-15-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: I had the Cards in Game 3. Clearly I'm surprised at the lack of production from St. Louis right now. Washington is on the verge of moving onto the World Series, but I think the feisty visiting side avoids the sweep and notches at least one victory in this series. At the very least, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Daniel Hudson goes for the visitors, while Patrick Corbin goes for the home side. The pitchers: Hudson (16-7, 3.55 ERA) looked sharp in his only start in the post-season, holding the Braves to one run over five innings. Corbin (14-7, 3.25) took back-to-back losses vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS, before having a pair of short no-decisions. The pick: Now or never. Do or die. Corbin has been volatile and Hudson has been solid. I'm banking on the visitors on keeping this one alive for one more game. 10* U OF U (B OF B) on the Cardinals RUN LINE. |
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10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | Top | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is 2-1-1 and Green Bay is 4-1. The Lions have looked decent on both sides of the ball, with wins over the Chargers and Eagles and nearly getting by the Chiefs last time out. Green Bay smoked the Cowboys in Dallas last weekend, but after the Cowboys lost to the Jets yesterday, I'm taking that victory with a proverbial "grain of salt." Detroit also comes in focussed and healthy after its bye week. The pick: The Lions defense has been impressive, shutting down Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, while also holding Patrick Mahomes without a TD. Green Bay has been terrific defensively as well, so I'll call that department a "wash." I think that Lions' veteran QB Matt Stafford has enough tricks up his sleeve to put the pressure on Aaron Rodgers and company. In a game which I envision being decided by whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm going to grab the points. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Lions. |
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10-14-19 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Capitals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance here as I expect this game to be decided late, or even in extra time or the shootout. Philip Grubauer is 3-0-0 with a 2.34 GAA for the Avs, while Braden Holtby is 1-1-2 with a 3.67 GAA for the Capitals. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is 7-1 in its last nine non-conference road games following a three games or more unbeaten streak. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price and grab the visitors with the spread. 6* play on the Avs PUCK-LINE. |
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10-13-19 | Steelers v. Chargers -5.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers are 1-4 and the Chargers are 2-3. This is a "must win" game for both teams. But I like Philip Rivers and company on their own soil here. Note that this is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 33-30 in Pittsburgh last season. Both teams enter off losses. Pittsburgh' backup QB Mason Rudolph suffered a concussion last weekend and he's listed as doubtful here. While the Pittsburgh defense picked off Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson three times last week, I don't expect that kind of sloppy play from Rivers at home and after last weekend's poor 20-13 loss at home. The pick: The Chargers have actually been quite stingy defensively, allowing only 334.8 total yards of offense per game. Pittsburgh allows 229.8 passing yards per game, but now they'll have to deal with LA RB Melvin Gordon, who has finally returned from his holdout. Too many question marks surrounding Pittsburgh here, while the conditions are unquestionably correct for a big bounce back for LA in my opinion. Lay the points with confidence. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Chargers. |
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10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -4 | 20-7 | Loss | -110 | 150 h 33 m | Show | |
The set-up: LA opened the year 3-0, but it's since 0-2. San Francisco enters are 4-0 after Monday's destruction of the Browns at home. I've been surprised by the 49ers so far, but I have a hard time seeing the team maintaining this level of play, especially vs. this now hungry Rams team, which comes in off a last second controversial loss to another division rival Seattle just last week. The pick: Despite their recent issues, the Rams' offense still ranks sixth in the league. Additionally note that San Fran is a poor 0-2 ATS in its last two after playing on MNF, while LA is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a divisional contest. I think the "hungrier" team finds a way to get the job done in this one. 8* play on the LA Rams. |
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10-12-19 | Nebraska +8 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I like 4-2 Nebraska to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire with the 5-0 Golden Gophers. This is a big opportunity for the Huskers, who have two by weeks, bookended around two games vs. bottom feeders Purdue and Indiana. Nebraska has plenty of talent in RB Wan'Dale Robinson and QB Adrian Martinez. Note that Martinez leads the team in passing and rushing. The pick: Nebraska hammered Minnesota last year and I think the stage is set for an upset here as well. I think the Gophers 5-0 start is due to a weak schedule. Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan has 13 TD's and three INT's, but both RB Mohamed Ibrahim and Cam Wiley are listed as questionable. Note as well that Minnesota is a poor 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 following an ATS victory, while the Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games vs. teams with a winning SU home record. I like Martinez to keep his team in this game. Grab the points. 10* COACH’S CORNER on Nebraska |
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10-12-19 | Kent State -12 v. Akron | 26-3 | Win | 100 | 120 h 10 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think Kent State will bounce back big here after last week's tough 48-0 loss at Wisconsin. And who better to beat up on the lowly 0-5 Akron? The Zips tried their hardest last week, but ultimately succummbed 37-29 to UMass. The pick: The Golden Flashes have plenty of skilled players though, so keep your eyes on RB Jo-El Shaw, who has 300 yards rushing and two TD's. WR Isaiah McCoy has 21 catches and and three TD's. Akron averages only 14 PPG and it concedes over 30. The Zips are alos just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. teams with losing records, while the Zips are 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 40 points or more in their previous outing. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout. 8* SMACK-DOWN on Kent State. |
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10-12-19 | Rutgers +27 v. Indiana | 0-35 | Loss | -109 | 117 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 0-4 and they're down to their third string QB. They won't be lacking for motivation here though. Last week Rutgers lost 48-7 to Maryland. Overall the Knights average only 14.2 PPG, while allowing 36.2. The pick: But I think the well rested Hoosiers get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today to their back to back road games at Maryland and Nebraska respectively. Last year Rugers lost this game 24-17 and I'm expecting a similar final here as well. Lastly not that Rutger is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after playing two straight conference games, while Indiana is a poor 3-7 ATS in its last ten after one or more consecutive victories ATS (lost 40-31 to MSU two weeks ago, but easily covered with the large spread.) The stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this line would suggest. 9* PLAY-BOOK on Rutgers. |
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10-12-19 | Maryland v. Purdue +5 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 117 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: Purdue is only 1-4 and it's off a big loss to Penn State. It's now or never for the Boilermakers if they have any shot at a late Bowl push. Maryland's been all over the place with its consistency this year, but it enters at 3-2. The Terps hammered the Orange 63-20, but since then they lost to Temple and then got destroyed 59-0 by Penn State. Maryland then responded with a 48-7 victory over a hurting Rutgers team. UPDATE: a big blow to Maryland today is that starting QB Josh Jackson is out with a high ankle sprain and back up Tyrell Pigrome is in. The pick: Jeff Brohm is a great coach and the Boilermakers were supposed to be better than this this year. But here we are. Jake Plummer suffered seven sacks last week vs. the Nittany Lions, but he definitely catches a break at home this weekend. Note as well that Maryland is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 road games, while Purdue is 5-1 ATS in its last six after two or more conseuctive SU losses. The outright is possible obviously, but let's great the points. 9* SITUATIONAL SMOKE-JOB on Purdue. |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -1 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I think rest leads to rust for 4-1 Virginia, which had its bye week last weekend after its loss to Notre Dame. Miami Florida comes in off a 42-35 shootout loss to Virginia Tech. Note as well that this is a big time revnege game for the Hurricanes after the Hoos beat Miami 16-13 in Charlottesville. Virginia' QB Bryce Perkins was sacked eight times by the Irish and I believe the pivot will have his hands full again here as well. The pick: This has essentially turned into a "must win" game for 2-3 Miami, which his 0-3 vs. Power 5 programs. Yes Miami spotted VT a 28-0 lead, but after that the Hurricanes completely outplayed the Hokies in last week's setback. Despite giving up 42 points to Tech (from five turnovers from the offense), the Hurricanes are STILL only allowing 21.2 PPG. Note as well that Virginia is just 1-3 ATS in its last four vs. teams with losing records, while Miami Florida is 3-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. I think the hungrier/desperate revenge-minded home-side delivers the goods. 10* play on Miami Florida. |
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10-11-19 | Colorado State -4 v. New Mexico | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 101 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a "must win" game for Colorado State if it plans to have any shot at a bowl berth at the end of the season. The Rams come to town off a poor 24-10 home loss to SDSU. New Mexico State enters having lost two straight, most recently a 32-21 setback to San Jose State. The pick: The Rams allow 36.5 PPG, but the Lobos concede 39.6. Colorado State has a decent QB in Patrick O' Brien, while New Mexico's offense is a complete disaster. Lobos' RB Ahmari Davis can't get the job done by himself today and I believe the home side is going to fade down the stretch. Note that the Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six following SU loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss at home. Meanwhile, the putrid Lobos are 0-5 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive victory for CSU. 8* play on Colorado State. |
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10-10-19 | Giants +15 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -105 | 107 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly I'm not calling for the outright victory. New York has several injuries and is a big underdog for a reason. The Patriots and Tom Brady continue to roll and come into this one undefeated. New England's defense is dominating as well. I simply feel though that the Pats are going to get caught "looking past" their lowly opponent today, leaving the backdoor open just enough to allow the hungry visiting side to sneak in down the stretch. The Giants had their two-game win streak snapped in last week's 28-10 home loss to the Vikes, while the Pats enter off a 33-7 road win over the Skins. The pick: Daniel Jones is no Brady, but he's been a lot better than Eli Manning (760 yards, four TD's and three INT's.) Brady had 348 yards, three TD's and an INT last week, but he was also sacked four times. While the Giants offense is banged up, the defense is actually a strenght of the team now (13 sacks and five INT's.) With the Jets up next weekend, I think the Patriots come out and get caught looking ahead to that one as well. As stated off the top, clearly I'm not calling for the outright win, but I do expect a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Giants. |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse +5 v. NC State | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -111 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 3-2. Both are 0-1 in ACC action. Both are also coming out of their respective bye weeks. Syracuse is led by QB Tommy DeVito, who has 1,234 passing yards and 11 TD's (eight in the last two games.) The Orange defense has been decent, having posted 12 forced turnovers. The pick: NC State comes out of its bye week with a new face under center in Bailey Hockman, who is a four star FSU transfer. For his career he's 28 of 50 for 255 yards, one TD and one INT. Also note that the Wolf Pack will be without RB Ricky Person, as well as OT Justin Witt. Take it for what you will as well, but NC State is 0-4 ATS in its last four vs. teams with winning records, while the Orange are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 40 or more points in their previous game. Clearly the outright isn't out of the question, but grab as many points as you can in the end. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Syracuse. |
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10-09-19 | Nationals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 35 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been an entertaining NLCS. Competitive. I believe that the final contest will also prove to be a war until the end. So in a game which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm going to lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. The pitchers: Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) was 8-4 with a 3.39 ERA in 19 starts on the road this year. Note that he's 3-2 with a minuscule 0.64 ERA in five games in the playoffs in his career, which includes going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two games this season. Buehler (14-4, 3.26) was 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA in 14 starts at home this season and he's 1-1 with a 3.03 ERA in five career postseason starts. The pick: I think Washington has stolen the momentum in this series. The Nats have the more experirenced hurler on the mound to start this one as well. While the outright win isn't out of the question obviously, in the end I'm grabbing the red hot Nationals on the run line. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Nationals run-line. |
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10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -126 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: It's do or die for the Twins as they return home down 0-2. Minnesota was great at home this season and while I do think the outright win is obviously not out of the question, in a game which I envistion being decided late or in extra frames, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side counters with Jake Odorizzi. The pitchers: Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) is 0-1 with a 6.50 ERA on the road this year. Note that he's 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in six postseason starts and he's 0-1 with a 4.57 ERA in two career starts vs. Minnesota.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a poor 8-10 (-6.3 units) this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Minnesota is 15-6 (+11 units) this season when playing with double revenge with two straight losses vs. an opponent. 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Twins on the RUN-LINE. |
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10-07-19 | Browns +4.5 v. 49ers | Top | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
TThe set-up: The Browns hit the West Coast looking to pull off the slight upset and in my opinion, they definitely have a legitimate shot at doing just that. The 49ers are 3-0, but they've been off since a win over the Steelers in Week 3. Cleveland is 2-2 and it enters off its best performance of the sason, smashing the Ravens 40-25. It took a few games for the Browns' offense to find its footing, but I have no reason not to believe that it can't continue to progress each week. Cleveland RB Nick Chubb had 165 yards and three TD's, while QB Baker Mayfield had 342 passing yards and a TD.
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10-06-19 | Packers +4 v. Cowboys | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 151 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams enter off their first losses of the year. Green Bay has had some extra time off to prepare for this one though after playing on Thursday night Football. Green Bay had a shot at beating the Eagles, but QB Aaron Rodgers threw an INT on the three-yard line (lost 34-27.) You can’t win them all though, but the good news for Packers fans is that the defense has so far been great, ranked seventh in the league in allowing only 17.2 PPG (last year the defense allowed 25 per contest.) The pick: The Cowboys looked pretty ordinary in their 12-10 loss on the road in New Orleans vs. a Drew Brees-less Saints side. I’ll argue that the Cowboys are 3-1 right now because of a weak schedule. Also note that the Cowboys took a major hit on the injury front by losing their two best offensive lineman in Zack Martin and Tyron Smith (both questionable this weekend.) Green Bay is 3-1 ATS in its last four after playing on a Thursday game, while Dallas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 14 points or less in its previous game. I’m grabbing the points. 9* SITUATIONAL ATS SMOKE-JOB on the Green Bay Packers. |
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10-06-19 | Ravens -3.5 v. Steelers | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 148 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game for both division rivals. The Ravens are 2-2 and the Steelers are 1-3. Baltimore enters off a loss to the Browns, while the Steelers enter off a 27-3 home win over the Bengals. I think that Baltimore is the much more focused side today though after losing two straight, while everything points to an immediate return to mediocrity for the Steelers in my opinion. The pick: Pittsburgh QB Mason Rudolph did enough to earn the win vs. the lowly Bengals last week and RB James Conner also had a big night statistically, but previous to that each had struggled up to that point. And now they face a veteran Ravens defense which is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Note that Pitts is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten Sunday following a MNF contest, while Baltimore is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. Lay the points. 8* EARLY DESTRUCTION on the Baltimore Ravens. |
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10-06-19 | Bears v. Raiders +5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Raiders continue their five week road journey with a “home” game in London England vs. the Bears today. After winning three straight, I think the Bears’ chemistry takes a hit here with the jump across the pond. It’s not going to be easy on the Raiders obviously either, but at 2-2 the team can’t afford to look past the 3-1 Bears today. Also note that two of Chicago’s last three victories have come over the Broncos and Redskins. Last week Chicago held on for a 16-6 win over the Vikings. The pick: A big blow to the Bears as well is the loss of starting QB Mitchell Trubisky to injury, meaning that Chase Daniel will make his fifth start on Saturday. The Raiders looked a lot better in their 31-24 win over the surging Colts on the road last weekend I don’t see any reason not to think that the team can’t build off that performance. Oakland QB Derek Carr was 23 of 31 for 189 yards and two TD’s and I expect the veteran to push the pace early. Everything points to a letdown here for the Bears in my opinion. That said, let’s grab the points. 9* SUPER SHOCKER on the Oakland Raiders. |
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10-06-19 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Bengals | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 148 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals are 0-3 and the Bengals are 0-4. Both teams have an ultra slim shot at even making the playoffs after their respective poor starts, but I still think that a healthy Cardinals team has much more in the tank than their reeling opponent. Arizona has played some incredibly difficult teams to open the year and it’s remained/looked competitive. The Bengals have been a train wreck and Cards’ QB Kyler Murray will finally have time to operate this afternoon. The pick: The Bengals lost 27-3 to the Steelers on Monday Night Football, as veteran QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 27 for 171 yards, zero TD’s, one INT and eight sacks. Note that Cincinnati is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games vs. teams with a losing road record, while the Cards a solid 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road contests. Grab the points. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Arizona Cardinals. |
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10-05-19 | Washington v. Stanford +15 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 148 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington is 4-1 and Stanford is 2-3. The Huskies only loss cam to Cal in Week 2. Last week the Huskies beat USC, but QB Jacob Eason was only 16 of 26 for 180 yards and no TD’s. Stanford and head coach David Shaw have an uncharacteristically difficult start to the season, but they come in off a solid 31-28 Pac 12 win over Oregon State and I think the home side carries that momentum over here: “The last three weeks have been tough,” said Shaw recently. “They’ve been really tough. We played against really good teams two of them on the road in very difficult environments.” The pick: Stanford backup QB David Mills replaced KJ Costello, who has a thumb injury, and he went 18 for 25 for 245 yards and three TD’s last week. Look for this steadily improving Cardinal side to keep this one closer than what this spread would suggest. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Stanford. |
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10-05-19 | Purdue +25.5 v. Penn State | 7-35 | Loss | -113 | 124 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But I do think that the 4-0 Penn State Lions get caught “looking past” their lowly 1-3 opponent. The Boilermakers have struggled to this point. While they haven’t played since 2016, I still think its worthy to point out that Purdue has lost eight straight in the series. After smashing Maryland 59-0 last weekend, would anyone fault the Nittany Lions for having a bit of a mental lapse vs. Purdue at home? Purdue won’t be going down without a fight, last week it fell 38-31 to Minnesota. The pick: From an overall “situational” stand point, I think this one sets up great for the hungry Boilermakers. Clearly the Nittany Lions are the “better” team, but I think this is a classic “trap.” Also note that Purdue is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while Penn State is only 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. For all the reasons listed above, grab the points. 8* pick on Purdue. |
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10-05-19 | Tulane v. Army +3 | 42-33 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Obviously the outright upset isn’t out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. Both Tulane and Army are 3-1. Tulane though I think is set up for a letdown here after its emotional come from behind win at home over Houston last weekend (was down 28-7 in the second half and it was decide by a 53 yard TD strike from QB Justin McMillan to WR Jalen McCleskey as time wound off the clock in regulation.) Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Army enters off back-to-back wins, but won’t be taking anything for granted here after demolishing the Morgan State Bears last weekend, behind a career-best day from RB Connor Slomka. The pick: Tulane’s offense is going to be put to the test here vs. Army’s 15th ranked overall defense which concedes 16.3 PPG. Army is a sharp 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following a bye week, while Tulane is a poor 3-8 ATS in its last 11 vs. teams with a winning home record. For all the reasons listed above, I’m on the Golden Knights. 8* pick on Army. |
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10-05-19 | Kent State +36.5 v. Wisconsin | 0-48 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m of course not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. More than anything though, I think the Badgers get caught “looking past” their final non-conference opponent of the season this afternoon. Two weeks ago the Golden Flashes smashed Bowling Green 62-20 and in that contest QB Dustin Crum was 26 of 31 for 310 yards and three TD’s. Wisconsin followed up a statement win over No. 19 Michigan by pulling away for a lacklustre 24-15 victory over Northwestern. The pick: Kent State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog of 21.5 or more points, while Wisconsin is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 21.5 or more points. This spread is just a little large. Grab the points. 8* pick on Kent State. |
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10-05-19 | Iowa +5.5 v. Michigan | 3-10 | Loss | -108 | 124 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: Iowa is 4-0, while Michigan is 3-1. The Hawkeyes demolished MTSU 48-3 last weekend, while Michigan rebounded from its first loss to smash Rutgers 52-0 last Saturday. This is an ultra important game for both teams and as such, I believe it’s going to be decided by whichever of them has their hands on the ball last. Iowa QB Nate Stanley had 965 passing yards and eight TD’s so far this year and his defense is allowing only 78 rushing yards per game. Michigan dominated last weekend because of its run game, but clearly that strategy isn’t going to work this weekend. The pick: The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after playing a home game, while the Wolverines are a terrible 3-6 ATS in their last nine after scoring 37 points or more in their last game. While I do think the outright is possible, in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. 8* pick on Iowa. |
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10-05-19 | South Florida v. Connecticut +11.5 | 48-22 | Loss | -105 | 124 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-3. USF has lost two two top 25 teams in Wisconsin and SMU by a margin of 38 points. The Huskies have lost to Illinois, Indiana and UCF by an average mating of 26 points. Both teams have similar offensive and defensive numbers, which makes the home field advantage that much more important for bettors in my opinion. The pick: USF starting QB Blake Barnett is listed as questionable as well. Additionally note that USF is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 as a favorite, while UConn is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two straight losses by 21 points or more. I’m grabbing all these points. 8* pick on UConn. |
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10-04-19 | New Mexico +7 v. San Jose State | Top | 21-32 | Loss | -100 | 124 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big Mountain West Conference matchup, as both teams come in at 2-2. San Jose State already suffered a conference loss, falling 41-24 to the Air Force Falcons last week, while this will be New Mexico’s conference opener. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Lobos have to be liking their chances at an upset today, as the last time these teams met, New Mexico pulled way for the 48-41 victory. New Mexico comes in hungry as well after last week’s loss to Liberty. San Jose State averages just 25.1 PPG and New Mexico looked a lot better defensively last week, allowing only 17 points in the setback to Liberty. The Lobos have a QB issue, with Tevaka Tuioti and Sheriron Jones splitting time after the starter went down win injury in Week 1. The pick: San Jose State somehow managed a win on the road vs. Arkansas and QB Josh Love is a clear strength of the team. The Spartans though are an absolute disaster defensively, as the unit allows the 11th most yards in all of FBS college football at the moment. Note that New Mexico is 4-1 ATS in its last five after playing two straight non-conference games, while San Jose State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a favorite and only 6-7 ATS in its last 13 at home. Grab the points and expect a battle. 10* ULTIMATE SUPER SHOCKER on New Mexico. |
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10-03-19 | Temple v. East Carolina +13 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 98 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the stage is set for a much closer battle than what this spread would suggest. ECU is coming off a 24-21 upset road victory over ODU and I believe the Pirates carry that momentum over here. Temple comes to town off a 24-2 win at home over Georgia Tech. Previous to that though the Owls were upset 38-22 on the road in Buffalo. The pick: ECU has won two in a row and three of its last four. The Pirates have been getting strong defensive play as well, allowing only 151.4 YPG, and note that ECU has had to face Navy as well this year. The Owls are a terrible 0-6 ATS in their last six as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while ECU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after playing a non-conference game. Grab the points and sit back and relax on this one. 10* NCAAF GAME OF THE WEEK on East Carolina. |
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10-02-19 | Senators +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 51 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Leafs are the heavy favorite here, but on Opening night, anything can happen. I don’t think Ottawa will go down without a fight and in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra time, I think playing the visitors on the PUCK-LINE is the savvy call. The pick: Both teams had “successful” preseasons, with the Sens finishing 3-2-1 and the Leafs going 5-3. I think that veteran goaltenders Craig Anderson and Frederick Anderson are a “wash” here as well. Ottawa is the younger team, but both clubs have plenty of new faces to work in. For all the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the insurance in this one. 8* play on the Sens PUCK-LINE. |
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10-01-19 | Brewers v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m expecting a decisive victory for the home side in this “one and done” Wild Card game. Both teams were hot down the stretch, but I think the Nationals’ Max Scherzer is the difference maker here. The Brewers counter with Brandon Woodruff to start. The pitchers: Woodruff (11-3, 3.62 ERA) comes in off two strong outings vs. the Pirates and Padres. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Woodruff at this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Scherzer (11-7, 2.92) enters off a full weeks rest and he owns a tiny 1.03 WHIP this season. The pick: Brewers’ slugger Christian Yelich is obviously not playing because of an earlier injury. Milwaukee center fielder Lorenzo Cain is also listed as day to day, while slugger Ryan Braun is dealing with a leg issue. The Nationals haven’t won a playoff series in 38 years, so clearly they won’t be lacking for motivation here. Note as well that the Nats are 6-0 in their last six vs. right-handed starters, while the Brewers are only 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Milwaukee comes to town weakened and I believe Washington finally gets the monkey off its back with a resounding victory. Lay the 1.5 runs for the small plus money return. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Nationals RUN LINE. |
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09-29-19 | Browns +5.5 v. Ravens | Top | 40-25 | Win | 100 | 147 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points. 10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns. |
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09-29-19 | Chargers v. Dolphins +17 | 30-10 | Loss | -115 | 147 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: I simply don’t think the Dolphins are as bad as this spread would suggest (despite being 0-3 and their earlier results.) I also don’t think that the Chargers are nearly as good as what this spread would suggest. Especially on the road, a place where they’ve always had a difficult time. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel that this spread is much too large. The Chargers come in off back-to-back losses of their own. Josh Rosen makes his second start as the starting QB for Miami and I think he’ll benefit from last week’s experience. The pick: LA won’t get RB Melvin Gordon back in the line-up until next week and while Austin Ekeler has been decent in a back-up role, I still think the visitors are stretched thin here. Also note that the Chargers are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite of ten points or more, while the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Fish. 8* SUPER DOG DESTROYER on the Miami Dolphins. |
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09-29-19 | Raiders +7 v. Colts | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Raiders beat the Broncos at home in Week 1, but they’ve since dropped two straight. So far Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has four TD’s and three INT’s. With an upcoming game in London England, the road ahead isn’t going to get any easier for Carr and company, who will clearly be given the green light from start to finish in this one. The Colts have done better than expected with Jacoby Brissett, who currently has 646 passing yards with seven TD’s and one INT. The pick: On paper the Colts are the better team. But the Raiders have talent and they’re definitely the “hungrier” dog in this fight. The Colts come in complacent in my opinion and note that they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive wins vs. the spread. The Raiders have struggled in most ATS categories the last few seasons, but note that they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 30 points or more in their previous outing. I’m banking on a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. 8* UPSET SPECIAL on the Oakland Raiders. |
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09-29-19 | Chiefs v. Lions +7.5 | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 147 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Chiefs’ offense is fantastics, but I’m still uncertain about their defense. The Lions have been much better than expected this season (on both sides of the ball) and I think they will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Chiefs come to town content at 3-0 and off their 33-28 home win over the Ravens last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes now has 1,195 yards, ten TD’s and no INT’s this year. The pick: But I think Mahomes confidence gets the better of him today. The Lions are a dangerous non-conference opponent, especially at home and without question on the defensive side, holding teams to only 269.3 passing yards per game and only four TD’s over the first three contests. The Chiefs allow 395 total yards per game, including 258 through the air. Veteran Lions’ QB Matt Stafford has 831 passing yards with six TD’s and two INT’s. The Chiefs have a terrible run defense, so keep your eyes on Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson as well for the home side. This is a trap game for KC and I think it falls hook, line and sinker right into it. Grab the points. 9* PLAY-BOOK on the Detroit Lions. |
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09-28-19 | UCLA +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 146 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the desperate 1-3 Bruins will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire vs. the 2-1 Wildcats. UCLA managed a one-point victory in last year’s game. Arizona comes in having won straight at home, most recently over the hapless Texas Tech Red Raiders, but note that it’s still lost five of its last eight Pac 12 conference games overall. Arizona’s offense looks decent, but UCLA catches a break here facing suspect Wildcats’ QB Khalil Tate, who’s completed only 63 percent of his passes for six TD’s to four INT’s. The pick: The Bruins enter with momentum and QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had five TD pass and two more on the ground. And that’s bad news for an Arizona secondary which has been torched by the pass this year, allowing 373 yards per game. The Bruins have been poor defensively, but note that they’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven after allowing 31 points or more in two straight games. Arizona on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following its bye week. Grab the points and expect a closer than expected battle. 10* NCAAF GAME OF THE YEAR on UCLA. |
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09-28-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Rice +11 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the 0-4 Rice Owls will fight tooth and nail and at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Rice has fallen to four quality opponents though and I think it finally puts everything together here in front of the home town crowd. Note that these two teams have one mutual non-conference opponent this year, the Texas Longhorns. The pick: And note that each team lost by the approximate same score, with Louisiana Tech falling 45-14 and Rice losing 48-13. The Bulldogs’ defense allowed nearly 400 yards passing to FIU’s QB last week. And that’s good news for Owls’ QB Tom Stewart, who has 414 passing yards, three TD’s and on INT’s. Rice has allowed 31 PPG so far, but again that number is skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition thus far. Additionally note that Louisiana Tech is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Rice is 2-0 ATS in its last two off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog. I’m grabbing the points but wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset. 8* play on Rice. |
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09-28-19 | Indiana +14.5 v. Michigan State | 31-40 | Win | 100 | 126 h 1 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright victory? Most likely not. But I’m expecting a battle until the end here between these Big Ten rivals. Indiana comes in off a blowout victory over UConn, while MSU enters off a victory over Northwestern. The Hoosiers have lost nine of the last ten in this series, including last year’s contest 35-21. But last week Indiana posted 430 yards of offense, while holding the Huskies to just 145. Indiana QB Peyton Ramsey was 23 of 27 for 247 yards, three TD’s and an an INT. Overall Indiana averages 33 PPG, and it concedes 19. The pick: MSU is averaging 29 PPG and it’s conceding 11. The Hoosiers though are 6-2 ATS in their last eight following one or more consecutive SU wins, while MSU is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a row win vs. a conference rival. I think the stage is set for a competitive battle. 8* play on Indiana. |
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09-28-19 | Coastal Carolina +16 v. Appalachian State | 37-56 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 1 m | Show | |
The set-up: Coastal Carolina won’t be lacking for motivation here after winning three straight. Overall the Chanticleers are averaging 27 PPG and 181 passing yards, led by dual-threat QB Bryce Carpenter, who had 102 rushing yards and 104 passing yards in the blowout win over UMass. The pick: And would anyone blame App State for having a tiny bit of a mental letdown this week after its big 34-31 win over UNC at Chapel Hill last weekend?! It was the Tar Heels first victory vs. a Power Five opponent since 2007. App State has averaged 49 PPG this year, but I’m still unconvinced and think this one sets up beautifully for the surging visitors. Coastal Carolina is getting the job done by controlling the clock, averaging 200 rushing yards per game this year. I’m grabbing the points and expecting a competitive battle. 8* play on Coastal Carolina. |
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09-28-19 | Northwestern +23.5 v. Wisconsin | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the visitors. The Badgers enter off a big win over Michigan last week and I think an imminent letdown is inevitable for the home side here. Northwestern’ QB Hunter Johnson doesn’t have anything to lose here after starting the season with four INT’s and just one TD. Keep your eyes on Northwestern WR Bennett Skowronek, who has caught a pass in 30 straight games. The Wildcats will have their hands full with Badgers’ RB Johathan Taylor, who leads the conference in rushing. The pick: However with the home side looking to control the pace and limit mistakes, I think that also plays into the Wildcats’ hands today and the sizeable spread they’ve been afforded. Northwestern hasn’t been very good on either side of the ball, but the defense still leads Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue. I look for the Badgers to go up early and then take the foot off the gas. Grab the points, expect a solid back door cover. 8* play on Northwestern. |
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09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the 2-2 Bulls come to town complacent after their big upset win over Temple last week. This is the first conference game for both teams and I believe the Bulls stumble on the road. The RedHawks won’t be lacking for motivation here as they’re 1-3. A closer look at Miami-Ohio’s win/loss record though sees that it’s played the much tougher competition, including a humbling 76-5 loss to Ohio State last time out. Miami Ohio also plays with revenge here after falling 51-42 at Buffalo last season. The pick: Note though that the home team has covered in four of the last five games in this series. Buffalo’ QB Matt Myers was only 9 of 15 with no TD’s last week and was picked off once. The Bulls got 217 yards rushing and held Temple to only 31. But I like Miami Ohio’ QB Brett Gabbert at home here as he looks to bounce back after last week’s embarrassment. Gabbert still has 529 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s despite last week’s blowout setback. Miami has covered in eight of its last nine MAC games and in four of its last five at home. Look for the “hungrier” team to get the job done this afternoon. 8* play on Miami Ohio. |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State v. California -4.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -103 | 109 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been playing well. Both teams are led by dynamic QB’s. ASU is led by Jayden Daniels, while Cal is led by Chase Garbers. Daniels has looked poised early, but he’s still for the most part untested and that definitely changes tonight. Note that in the game vs. Michigan State, Daniels was only 15 of 26 for 140 yards and no TD’s in the 10-7 win. Cal sits 61st in the country in defense, allowing 366.5 YPG. The Bears’ secondary has given up just two passing TD’s as well through four games. The pick: Garbers has a 7:2 TD:INT thus far. He’s backed up by two competent RB’s in Christopher Brown Jr. and Marcel Dancy, who will keep the Sun Devils honest with Garbers (both have two rushing TD’s so far this season.) I give Cal the slight edge in all three phases and combined with the home field advantage, I’m going to confidently lay the points and expect a solid cover. 10* PAC-12 BEST OF THE BEST on California. |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 34-27 | Loss | -108 | 83 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger. 10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers. |
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09-26-19 | Navy +12 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Push | 0 | 83 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an early key AAC West division battle and as such, I think we’re going to see a very competitive affair. Note that the Midshipmen lead the all time series 3-1, including last year’s 22-21 upset victory over the Tigers. Navy likes to slow the game down when on offense, which works against this fast-paced Memphis offense. Keep your eyes on Navy QB Malcolm Perry, who also leads the team in rushing yards and TD’s this year. Memphis has been fantastic early defensively, but I think that over time that the visitors attack will wear down the home side front. The pick: The Tigers’ numbers are skewed in my opinion due to the level of competition. After a poor offensive showing to open the year vs. Ole Miss, the Tigers put up 55 vs. FCS opponent Southern, while them going on to also beat South Alabama by 42 points. Note that Tigers’ QB Brady White has three TD’s and an three INT’s thus far. Last year it was a one point victory f and the year before that it was a three-point win for the Tigers. I’m grabbing the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Navy. |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today. The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points. 10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns. |
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09-22-19 | Broncos +9 v. Packers | 16-27 | Loss | -125 | 148 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: No outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a “nail-biter” in this one. Denver’s 0-2 and desperate. The stats for teams that start the year 0-3 are downright terrible, so for all intents and purposes, the Bronco’s entire season is on the line this week. Green Bay on the other hand enters on the other end of the spectrum by starting 2-0. The Packers were terrible defensively last year, but so far this season they’ve allowed just 9.5 points per game. The pick: But I think Green Bay’s early defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Joe Flacco isn’t the QB he once was, but his veteran experience in this situation is actually a strength for Denver going in. Denver lost in the final seconds to the Bears last week (16-14), but it was under some suspect calls from the refs, which prompted Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio to remark: “You can’t control the officiating or bad calls.” Note that GB is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS win, while Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. I expect this one to come down to the final moments. 8* play on Denver Broncos. |
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09-22-19 | Lions +9 v. Eagles | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 148 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Eagles have looked terrible so far this year and I think there’s a chance they could lose this one outright as well. Detroit is 1-0-1 after beating LA 13-10 at home last week. Detroit should be 2-0 after it let a late lead slip away in Week 1, as the Lions are looking much better on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. The pick: Detroit kept Philip Rivers out of the end zone last week, so Carson Wentz and this struggling Eagles’ offense will not have an easy time today. Last week Wentz was 25 of 43 for 231 yards, a TD and two INT’s. The Eagles’ run game was non-existent as well, with Jordan Howard picking up 18 yards on eight carries. Also note that Philadelphia suffered major injuries to key players last week (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and DT Tim Jernigan all listed as day to day.) I think the Lions can smell the blood in the water. Grab the points. 8* play on the Detroit Lions. |
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09-22-19 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 148 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: Two undefeated teams collide on Sunday afternoon and only one will leave with the victory. Unless there’s a tie, which isn’t out of the question in my opinion. Regardless, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. KC has won two games on the road, but that was vs. Jacksonville and Oakland. Baltimore has beaten Miami and Arizona. When these teams met in Week 14 last year it was KC that held on for the 27-24 win, making the “revenge scenario” a very real one for Lamar Jackson and the surging Ravens as well. The pick: So far Baltimore has outscored its opposition 82-27 this year. Jackson and RB Mark Ingram are going to prove to be too much for this suspect Chiefs’ defense to handle in my opinion. The Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes have outscored their opposition by a 68-36 margin, but the questions on the defensive side of the ball still remain for me. Not so for Baltimore though and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I’m definitely going to grab the points in what sets up to be a very competitive battle. 8* play on the Baltimore Ravens. |
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09-22-19 | Falcons +2.5 v. Colts | 24-27 | Loss | -111 | 148 h 33 m | Show | |
The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams after each won in Week 2. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett has five TD’s and just one INT so far this year and the run game has looked decent as well for the Colts behind Marlon Mack. The Falcons looked pretty good in their 24-20 win over the Eagles last week, as ATSL gets production across the board from several key players, including Calvin Ridley, who has 169 receiving yards already. The pick: I think it’s interesting to note though that the Falcons lead the league in receiving yards allowed and so far they’ve done a superb job in limiting big plays. The Colts are ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game (147) and I believe their extreme one-dimensionality comes back to bite them here. Grab the points. 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. |
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09-21-19 | Ball State v. NC State -19 | 23-34 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: Ball State is 1-2, most recently coming off a 41-31 loss to FAU. The Cardinals haven’t had any issues putting points on the board, but Ball State is unable to stop anyone. NC State won’t be lacking for motivation here as it comes in off an upset 44-72 loss at WVU. It was a bit of a shock considering how well NC State looked against ECU (34-6 win) and Western Carolina (41-0.) The Cardinals have gotten great production from QB Drew Pitt, with 11 TD’s and just three INT’s, but now Ball State faces its stiffest defensive competition to date. The pick: With the backing of the home crowd and playing with a chip on their shoulder, I definitely think that from a situational stand point, the Wolf Pack are the correct call here today. But note as well that Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as a road dog, while NC State is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after a loss ATS. Lay the points, expect a rout. 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on NC State. |
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09-21-19 | Miami-OH +40 v. Ohio State | Top | 5-76 | Loss | -108 | 120 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset. I just think that Ohio State will take the foot off the gas in the second half as it plays out the final game of the non-conference schedule. Miami Ohio lost to Iowa 38-14, beat Tennessee Tech 48-17 and then fell to Cincinnati 35-13. Who could fault the Buckeyes for looking past their lowly opponent after starting the year 3-0, with a 45-21 win over FAU, a 42-0 victory over Cincinnati and a 51-10 effort over Indiana last week. The pick: Justin Fields clearly has the advantage over Miami’s Brett Gabbert, but as mentioned, this is a situational play more than anything else. The RedHawks have plenty to work on in this game which they know they’re going to lose, while Ohio State can simply “go through the motions” and still get the job done before a difficult upcoming Big Ten schedule. I’m grabbing the points. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Ohio |
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09-21-19 | Temple v. Buffalo +14 | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: Temple comes in content in my opinion after its upset victory over Maryland and a 2-0 start to the year. Temple’ QB Anthony Russo has 686 yards, seven TD’s and two INT’s. Overall the Owl are averaging 561 yards of offense and 38 PPG this year. The Bulls though are a tough defense and I think the unit keeps the team in this game late. Buffalo is looking to bounce back after a 35-17 loss to Liberty last time out. Bulls’ QB Matt Myers has 481 yards, five TD’s and an INT, while Kevin Marks has 247 yards rushing. Overall Buffalo averages 385.3 yards and 22.7 PPG. The pick: Both of Temple’s wins have come at home and I have a hard time laying so many points on its first true road game of the season (despite how good its looked to his point). Conversely, both of Buffalo’s losses have come on the road. I’m banking on a competitive battle and will therefore be grabbing the ample points in this one. 8* PLAYBOOK on Buffalo |
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09-21-19 | Michigan State -8 v. Northwestern | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 116 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: While likely not too high-scoring, I still think that MSU’s offense will have more than enough in the tank to distance itself from its lowly counterpart today. And note that clearly the Spartans won’t be taking anything for granted here as the Wildcats have taken three straight in the series and four of the last five dating to 2012. Michigan State is also out to atone for its inexplicable setback at home to Arizona State. MSU’ QB Brian Lewerke looked out of sorts last week, but he and RB Elijah Collins have dominated this series in the past and I expect that trend to continues here. Collins in particular already has 281 yards rushing and he had a TD last week as well. The pick: Northwestern has been terrible against the run, allowing 175.33 yards per game. Wildcats’ No. 1 QB TJ Green went down with injury in Week 1 and ever since then the Northwestern offense has been stuck in neutral with Hunter Johnson running the show (Wildcats are the only team in the Big Ten average ring fewer than five yards per play.) I expect a lot from the Michigan State defense and I expect nothing from the Wildcats offense. Look for Lewerke to take advantage and lay the points. 8* play on Michigan State. |
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09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -1 | 28-20 | Loss | -125 | 116 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked very impressive. The Golden Bears had a 20-0 lead over UNT, only to hold on for the 23-17 victory, while Ole Miss posted an uninspiring 40-29 victory over FCS Southeastern Louisiana. Cal posted a 129 yards of offense in the first quarter last week, but then only 150 yards over the final three combined. Cal QB Chase Garbers was just nine of 22 and he was running for his life most of the time. The pick: Ole Miss has been aggressive on the defensive side of the ball, posting 27 tackles for a loss through three games, which is most in the SEC. Ole Miss has talent on the offensive side of the ball as well and scheduling is in its favor, as a 9 AM PST contest for a West Coast team which has a 1,700 mile trip before hand is never an easy task. Also note that the Bears finishing last week’s game without LB’s Chinedu Udeogu, Cameron Goode and Tevin Paul because of injury. The Grove is going to be electric in what is essentially a “must win” for the home side. 8* play on Ole Miss. |
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09-21-19 | Southern Miss +39.5 v. Alabama | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: Outright victory? Of course not. But after jumping out to an early insurmountable lead, I think the Crimson Tide takes the foot off the gas in the second half and I look for the lowly Southern Miss Golden Eagles to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Last week Alabama destroyed USC 47-23, with QB Tua Tagovailoa going for a career-high 444 passing yards. Southern Miss won’t be lacking for motivation here as it enters off a 47-42 road win over Troy. The pick: Golden Eagles’ QB Jack Abraham had 463 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s win. Abraham leads the Conference USA in passing and he’ll be given the green light early and often this afternoon. I believe he’s a difference maker. Additionally note that Southern Miss is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non conference road games as an underdog of 35 points or more. Grab the points. 8* play on the Southern Miss |
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09-20-19 | Utah v. USC +3.5 | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 106 h 60 m | Show | |
The set-up: USC is coming off a surprising Week 3 loss at BYU and I look for it to risk life and limb today as it tries to score the outright upset. Utah owns one of the best defenses in the country, but it does struggle against “air raid” offenses like Washington State and these very USC Trojans. USC held BYU to just 3.3 YPC, so containing mobile Utah QB Tyler Huntley is definitely possible. The pick: USC QB Kedon Slovis looked great in Week 2 with 377 yards and three TD’s, but last week he had three INT’s. Utah has struggled in this arena in the past and I believe the circumstances are working against it here as well. USC has the offensive firepower to easily hang with the Utes and I think that’ll be more than enough to get the job done here, with a possible outright in the cards as well. That said, grab the points. 10* on USC |
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09-20-19 | Air Force +8 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -105 | 106 h 60 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams come in undefeated. Boise State is the better team and it has the advantage, but the Falcons won’t be going down without a fight today. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do believe that the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The only way to beat these Boise State Broncos is by keeping them off the field! And that’s exactly what Air Force is designed to do as it looks to control the tempo of a contest with its strong run game, behind Tavin Birdow and Kadin Remsberg (note that the Falcons are second in the country in rushing with 353.5 YPG on the ground.) The pick: Boise State will be relentless in its attack as well with QB Hank Bachmeier, but I believe the Falcons’ improved defensive play, combined with their aggressive “run first” offensive attack will indeed keep this contest competitive until the final moments. Additionally note that AF is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 as a dog, while Boise State is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite. I’m grabbing the points. 8* on Air Force. |
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09-20-19 | Florida International +10 v. Louisiana Tech | 31-43 | Loss | -137 | 105 h 0 m | Show | |
The set-up: FIU was projected by many to contend for the Conference USA East Division title, but it’s dropped its first two games, which includes an upset setback to WKU at home to start C-USA play. The Golden Panthers earned their first win last week though vs. FCS New Hampshire last week (30-17), so they do come in with something to build off. Louisiana Tech has looked better than FIU, but not by much. It opened with a 45-14 loss at Texas, and then followed it up with a 20-14 win over FCS Grambling. It then beat Bowling Green 35-7 last week. FIU starting QB James Morgan is likely out for this one with an ankle injury, but back up Kaylan Wiggins looked impressive last week with 187 rushing yards on 14 carries, while also going 12 of 18 passing for 127 yards in the win. The Golden Panthers also have three quality backs in D’Vonte Prie, Napoleon Maxwell and Anthony Jones. The pick: The Bulldogs have a dynamic QB in J’Mar Smith, but FIU has a talented defense as well with LB Sage Lewis leading the way with 22 total tackles this year, while also posting an INT last week. Yes FIU has many question marks, but it has the talent to keep this one close down the stretch in my opinion. Grab the ample points. 8* play on FIU |
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09-16-19 | Browns -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points. 10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns. |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +1 | 20-24 | Win | 102 | 132 h 13 m | Show | |
The set-up: Philadelphia came from behind to knock off the Redskins 33-27 last weekend, I but I think it’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and against this desperate Falcons side looking to bounce back off a poor 28-12 loss to the Vikes in Week 1. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense looked terrible for most of the game, but they finally found a bit of a rythym near the end of the game and I believe the unit will carry that momentum over here. In a division packed with quality teams, this has for all intents and purposes become a “must win” for ATL this weekend. The pick: The Eagles allowed a ghastly 380 yards to Washington’ QB Case Keenum last week and sacked him only once, so if not now for Ryan and the Falcons…when?! Atlanta Falcons 7* play |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points. 10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants. |
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09-14-19 | Arizona State +14.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 54 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona State upset MSU last year and while I’m not calling for a repeat on Saturday afternoon, I do definitely think that the conditions are right for a much more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. ASU admittedly faces a better team this year, but Herm Edwards’ side won’t be lacking for motivation or confidence. ASU QB Jayden Daniels had a 300 yard passing game last weekend. MSU is better against the run than the pass, so that plays into Daniels favor on Saturday. The pick: The Spartans rely heavily on their run game with Elijah Collins leading the charge, but QB Brian Lewerke still has a few question marks surrounding him in my opinion after a poor 2018 showing. With conference play starting next week, this also sets up as a natural “look ahead” spot for MSU. No outright, but closer than expected. 10* play on Arizona State. |
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09-14-19 | Western Kentucky +10.5 v. Louisville | 21-38 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: WKU is just 1-1 this year, but its been competitive in each contest. In Week 1 the Hilltoppers fell to Central Arkansas by a score of 35-28, before then rebounding with a solid 20-14 victory over FIU last weekend. Louisville has a 1-1 mark as well, falling 35-17 to Notre Dame, before then waxing EKU 42-0 last weekend. The pick: The trends DO NOT favor the favorite in this one though, as note that the Cardinals are a terrible 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games and 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral site affairs. WKU on the other hand is 27-17 ATS the last two years after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. Western Kentucky QB Steven Duncan matches Louisville QB Jawon Pass in my opinion and that means that I’m grabbing up the points. 8* play on WKU. |
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09-14-19 | NC State v. West Virginia +7 | 27-44 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: NC State has outscored its first two opponents 75-6, including last week’s opponent Western Carolina 41-0. WVU won’t be lacking for motivation today though. The Mountaineers are 1-1, but they’ve looked terrible in both games. WVU narrowly defeated James Madison in Week 1, before then getting destroyed 38-7 by Missouri last weekend. WVU heads into Big 12 play next weekend, making this contest more crucial than ever. NC State Matt McKay hasn’t been challenged yet this season, but I believe that changes this afternoon. The pick: NC State had plenty of question marks heading into the season and while its first year QB and RB have looked solid to this point, clearly hitting the road to take on this motivated Power 5 opponent is an entirely different “animal.” In what I expect to be a very competitive battle, I’m grabbing the points. 8* play on West Virginia. |
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09-14-19 | Maryland v. Temple +7.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
The set-up: Last weekend the Terps annihilated then No. 21 Syracuse 63-20 as an underdog and I believe it’s in line for a classic “letdown” here. Temple destroyed FCS Bucknell 56-12 in its opener, and then enjoyed last weekend off as its bye. Fresh and focused, I think the home side will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup at College Park, the Owls emerged with a 35-14 victory. The pick: Temple QB Anthony Russo started on the road vs. the Terps last year and was 15 of 25 for 228 yards, one TD and an INT. Maryland has plenty of offensive talent, especially at the QB position with Josh Jackson, but the overall conditions favor the hungry and rested home side in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 8* play on Temple. |
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09-13-19 | Washington State -8 v. Houston | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -115 | 55 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the Washington State Cougars vs. the Houston Cougars and if you like offense, then this game is for you! WSU is ranked No. 20 after starting 2-0 and averaging 58.8 PPG. Houston simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in my opinion. Note that WSU QB Anthony Gordon already has 884 yards and nine TD’s this season. Houston is 1-1, losing to Oklahoma in its opener, before beating Prairie View 37-17. The pick: Nine different players caught a pass for WSU last week. Keep your eyes on WSU RB Max Borghi as well, who is averaging 95 all purpose yards per game. D’Eriq King is a big time talent for the Cougars, but he lacks the talent around him to keep up down the stretch. Look for Gordon to keep up the blistering pace with his biggest game of the season. 10* play on Washington State. |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina +3 v. Wake Forest | 18-24 | Loss | -104 | 51 h 25 m | Show | |
The set-up: UNC comes in quietly confident after starting the year 2-0 and getting past Coastal rival Miami last week. Wake is 2-0 as well after wins over Utah State and Rice. UNC has an extremely dynamic QB in Sam Howell and a competent back in Javonte Williams, who has 178 yards over two games. The pick: The Demon Deacons have been terrible vs. the past as well, currently ranked 123rd nationally. Also note that Wake’s star RB Cade Carney is once again listed as questionable for this game after missing last week as well. Jamie Newman has been great at QB as well for Wake, but his team’s weakness against the pass on the defensive side is the difference maker in my opinion. With FCS Elon up next, I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead” as well. Grab the points. 8* play on UNC. |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points. LA Rams 10* play |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -7 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: SDSU managed a win over FCS opponent Weber State last week, but it was anything but dominant. UCLA comes in off a poor performance vs. Cincinnati, but I think that the Bruins bounce back in friendly confines. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson struggled last week vs. the Bearcats, but I expect him to bounce back in friendly confines. That said, UCLA’s defense was a strength in the 24-14 setback. The pick: And that doesn’t bode well for SDSU QB Ryan Agnew, who last week completed only 16 passes for 108 yards. The Aztecs only managed 130 yards rushing last week as well. The Aztecs have history against them as well, as they’re 0-21-1 vs. the Bruins lifetime, getting outscored 695-241 in the process. I like Chip Kelly to settle down his troops and to deliver the goods at home. Lay the points. UCLA 10* play |
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09-07-19 | Rutgers v. Iowa -19 | Top | 0-30 | Win | 100 | 89 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: No spoilers here, as I look for Iowa to lay the hammer down from start to finish. McClane Carter had 340 passing yards and two TD’s in Rutgers beatdown win over UMass, but clearly now the Scarlet Knights face an entirely different animal in the Hawkeyes. Also note that Carter was in fact picked off three times by the Minutemen. The Scarlet Knights looked good defensively in holding UMass to 14 points, but once again, clearly they’re going to have their hands full with this top tier opponent and in this difficult road venue. The pick: Iowa QB Nate Stanley was 21 of 30 for 252 yards and three TD’s and no picks last week. He was complimented by RB Mekhi Sargent, who also had four catches for 65 yards (overall the Hawkeyes had 213 yards rushing.) I think Rutgers takes a step back after last week’s “cream puff.” Lay the points. Iowa 8* play |
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09-07-19 | Ohio +6.5 v. Pittsburgh | 10-20 | Loss | -120 | 88 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: This sets up as a classic “trap” for the Panthers. Pittsburgh lost to Virginia last weekend and now it faces a tough Ohio team at home, before heading for an in-state rivalry vs. Penn State. I believe the dangerous Bobcats are going to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke had a good showing for Rhode Island last week and overall the Bobcats rushed for 278 yards last week. The Panthers looked decent defensively last week, but it averaged only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt while on offense (note that Pitt QB Kenny Pickett was just 21 of 41 for 185 yards, one TD and two INT’s. The pick: The Panthers are still reeling from last week’s pathetic performance and they’re also already worried and looking ahead to next week. Outright win? Possible, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab as many points as you can. Ohio Bobcats 6* play |
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09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +18 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly I’m not calling for an outright victory, but for a number of different reasons I do indeed feel that this spread is too large for the Demon Deacons to cover under the Friday Night lights. Wake Forest came from behind to knock off Utah State 38-35 last weekend and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent today. Rice lost 14-7 to Army, but the Owls were impressive from start to finish and I think they carry that momentum over here. The pick: Wake Forest had 579 yards last week, but they ran 58 times and threw 47. That translates into only 5.51 yards per play, which ranked 75th in the country. Army ran for 231 yards vs. Rice, but the Owls held the vaunted Black Knights to just 4.1 yards per attempt, the third best in the country of the 26 FBS defensive units which gave up more than 200 yards on the ground last week. The Owls looked bad offensively last week, but Army is stout. Note that Wake Forest allowed 596 total yards of offense to Utah State, including 416 through the air. I’m grabbing the points. Rice 10* play |
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09-05-19 | Packers +4 v. Bears | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 1420 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points. Green Bay Packers 10* play |
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09-04-19 | White Sox v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound tonight, I’m definitely going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Shane Bieber. The pitchers: Nova (9-11, 4.48 ERA) has enjoyed success vs. the Tribe this year (1-1, 2.14 ERA in three outings), but he enters off back-to-back losses and I definitely think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Bieber (12-7, 3.27) enters off a loss despite allowing only three runs over seven inning with nine K’s. Note that Bieber has to be feeling confident here though as he’s 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in four career match ups vs. the White Sox. The pick: Chicago has actually won eight of 14 meetings in the season series this year, so clearly the home side won’t be looking past its opponent today. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Cleveland Indians -1.5 10* play |
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09-02-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Reds | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that laying this reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance is the wise way to go in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Smyly, while the home side counters with Anthony DeSclfani. The pitchers: Smyly (2-6, 6.95 ERA) pitched well for his new team in his first two starts, but over his last five he’s posted a 7.20 ERA. With his team desperate for victories though, I believe that the veteran settles down here and matches pace with his overachieving counterpart. Desclafani (9-7, 4.05) comes in off his best start of the year, going seven shutout vs. the Marlins on Wednesday. While he does have a winning record (3-1) vs. the Phillies, his ERA vs. them sits a poor 5.40 in that span. The pick: Additionally note that Philadelphia is still a sharp 18-11 this season vs. the NL Central, while Cincinnati is just 15-16 vs. southpaws. As mentioned off the top, I like Smyly to match DeSclafani and in a scenario like that, I definitely think that the value swings to the hungry dog. 10* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Big changes occurred for both teams in the off-season. Kyler Murray is gone from Oklahoma, and Ed Oliver has left for Houston. Both teams have new coaching staff as well. It’s interesting to note that when these two teams last battled, it was UH which scored the upset to open the 2016 season. While I’m not calling for the upset here, I do think that the stage is set for a more competitive battle than what this spread would suggest. The Sooners have been terrible defensively for years, but their offense has masked its inefficiencies. Alex Grinch is the new defensive coordinator for Oklahoma, but I still think the Sooners will struggle on that side of the ball this season. The pick: D’Eriq King is back for the Cougars after suffering an early injury last year and he has top RB Patrick Carr back as well (also top WR’s in Courtney Lark, Keith Corbin and Marquez Stevenson.) OU’s defense has been a disaster and while QB Jalen Hurts, a transfer from Alabama should make the offense one of the best in the nation again, the question marks defensively are the difference maker for me in the end. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. 10* COACH’S CORNER on Houston. |
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08-31-19 | Miami-OH +21.5 v. Iowa | 14-38 | Loss | -105 | 123 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: No outright upset, but I think it’ll be much more competitive than what this spread would suggest. Miami Ohio finished 6-6 SU last year, while the Hawkeyes were 9-4. Miami Ohio though finished strong and it’s got a versatile offense which averaged 202 passing yards and 202 rushing yards per game (in eight conference games.) The Hawkeyes averaged 32.7 PPG vs. conference foes, while conceding only 20.6. The pick: Miami Ohio though is a sharp 6-2 ATS in its last eight as an underdog, while Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight non-conference home games as a favorite of 21 points or more. This spread is a little large, grab the points. Miami (OH) 8* play |
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08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -2 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -115 | 1593 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: There’s no “warm ups” for these two teams as their ACC schedule kicks off in Week 1. BC will then face three straight teams which failed to make a bowl berth last year, so the “look ahead” angle definitely comes into play here for the home side in my opinion. The Hokies have ODU and Furman up next and I believe they come to play today. VT’s offense will have some work to do to catch up to its defense. The pick: And that’s bad news for BC’s offensive line, which is the biggest question mark heading into this season. The Eagles defense is also breaking in seven new starters. That doesn’t bode well for a team which had difficulties last year controlling the clock. VT has problems on the offensive side of things, but I believe it’s defense controls this game and I look for it to be the deciding factor in the final outcome. Lay the points. Virginia Tech 10* play |
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08-31-19 | South Carolina v. North Carolina +12 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: North Carolina welcomes back Mack Brown as head coach as he’ll look to re-ignite his former program. UNC turns to QB Sam Howell, while USC goes with Jake Bentley. This is a neutral site game, which levels the playing field somewhat. South Carolina has the advantage at QB, but otherwise I feel that UNC matches up well with the Gamecocks across the board. The pick: The Tar Heels have offensive weapons at RB and at WR and I think Howell can match pace with his veteran counterpart. Note as well that South Carolina is just 4-5 ATS in its last non-conference games, while UNC is interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight vs. the SEC. I’m banking on Brown’s guidance to keep this one closer than expected. Grab the points. UNC 10* play |
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08-31-19 | East Carolina +17 v. NC State | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 28 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset today, but I do think that the writing is on the wall and much more competitive battle is in the cards between these in-state rivals. ECU sports a new coach in Mike Houston and he’ll look to take advantage of an NC State team which has lost several key players from last year’s team, including QB Ryan Finley (it’s interesting to note, that despite winning this game last year, the Pirates have won three of the last four in the series.) ECU hands the ball to Holton Ahlers, who had 1,785 yards and 12 TD’s in ten games for the Pirates last year (also had 592 rushing yards and another six TD’s on the ground.) ECU also has two veteran backs in Hussein Howe and Darius Pinnix. NC State on the other hand is starting a red shirt sophomore at QB today in Matt McKay. Last year he was 7 of 8 for 87 yards in six games (NC State also features all new RB’s.) The pick: The Pirates’ experience in the skill positions, especially at the QB spot make the visitors and the points the correct call in my opinion; grab the points! East Carolina 9* play |
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08-30-19 | Colorado State v. Colorado -12.5 | Top | 31-52 | Win | 100 | 111 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the writing is on the wall and a blowout is in the cards in this one. The Buffs have a new head coach in Mel Tucker and he has 11 returning starters, including senior QB Steven Montez to build a foundation upon. Colorado State only had three victories last year and I look for the home side to take advantage of this favorable season opening matchup. The pick: Last year the Rams had one of the Nation’s worst defensive units, allowing 451.5 YPG and 36.8 PPG. Colorado has won four straight in this series (by an average margin of 21.5 points). Collin Hill is a talented QB, but he’s in over his head here in my opinion vs. the re-worked Buffs defense. I’m expecting a complete rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Colorado 9* play |
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08-29-19 | Kent State v. Arizona State -25 | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -103 | 79 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona State won’t be looking past Kent State here with what is expected to be a “wide open” Pac 12 South. Utah is the fav, but the Sun Devils will be pushing the pace from start to finish after watching Arizona blow its opener in Hawaii last weekend. Arizona actually finished second in the south last year, 7-6 overall and 5-4 in conference action. ASU has a tough matchup at No 18 Michigan State in Week 3, making this non-conference contest vs. the lowly Flashes that much more important. The pick: Kent State has zero bowl wins in its 99 year history. The Flashes were 1-7 in MAC action and 2-10 overall. Over the last six year they haven’t had a better record than 4-8. Ken State is led by Woody Barrett, who is a true dual threat. However, the tandem of QB Jayden Daniels and RB Eno Benjamin is going to prove to be too much for this porous Kent State defense to handle today in my opinion. Lay the points and expect a complete blowout. Arizona St 10* play |
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08-29-19 | Titans v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 19-15 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team will start any of its starters tonight. So that means that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in my opinion. Tennessee was 0-4 SU/ATS last year and it’s 2-9 SU/ATS in the preseason dating back to 2017. The pick: Chicago comes in off a win over Indianapolis last weekend, erasing a 17-7 deficit by scoring 20 straight points. Keep your eyes on kick Eddy Pineiro, who had three extra points and two FG’s in the victory. I’m banking on Chicago’s backups carrying over that Week 3 momentum. Lay the points. Chicago Bears 10* play |
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08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 825 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? It’s not out of the realm of possibility at all in my opinion. After finishing 4-17 in 2017, the Gators went 10-3 in Dan Mullen’s first year as head coach. That included a win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. While QB Feleipe Franks is back under center for Florida, the big question mark for the Gators (and I think it’s significant in Week 1), is that there are four new starters on the offensive line. The pick: Miami was just 7-6 last year. Manny Diaz is now the head coach for the Hurricanes and he went out and grabbed a top play-caller in Dan Enos. Jarren Williams beat out N’Kosi Perry and Tate Martell for the starting QB position for the home side. Williams had two of the ACC’s top receivers in Coral Gables and buffalo transfer KJ Osborn. The uncertain up front for Florida makes the Hurricanes the correct call in Week 1 in my opinion. Grab the points. Miami Florida 10* play |
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08-19-19 | 49ers +1.5 v. Broncos | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This will be Denver’s third preseason game, as it played in the Hall of Fame Game as well. The Broncos lost four straight to end the regular season last year and they have high hopes with veteran QB Joe Flacco. Denver fell in Seattle last week and Flacco saw limited time in that one. He should see a bit more here, but the veteran will of course be saved for the official Week 3 preseason contest. The pick: San Francisco was just 4-12 in 2018 and it’ll be expecting big things from QB Jimmy Garappolo. But the 49ers’ defense was impressive in its Week 1, 17-9 win over the Cowboys. Backup San Fran QB CJ Beathard had a TD pass in the victory. With Denver’s starting defense seeing limited time, I believe Beathard is a difference maker in this one tonight. Grab as many points as you can. 10* COACH’S CLINIC on the San Francisco 49ers. |
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08-18-19 | Seahawks +3 v. Vikings | Top | 19-25 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes rolled to a big 34-25 road victory in New Orleans, but I believe they’ll have a much more difficult time here vs. the hard-hitting Seahawks. Seattle enters off a 22-14 home win over Denver. Seattle was 10-6 in the regular season last year, but 0-4 in the preseason. That included a 21-20 loss to these very Vikings. Can anyone say “revenge” spot? The pick: The Vikes offense looked great against a terrible Saints secondary, but Seattle used six of its 11 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and it just held Denver to 291 total yards. Outright victory?! Very possible of course, but in the end I’m grabbing the points. Seattle Seahawks 10* play |
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08-17-19 | Montreal v. Calgary -6.5 | Top | 40-34 | Loss | -114 | 92 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: After a slow start, the Stampeders can ill afford to take the foot off the gas for the rest of the season. Calgary is in the playoff mix and I think it’ll pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. A victory today and the Stamps are in a tie for first place in the division, but a loss and they could wind up all the way in fourth. Note that while covering only once in four games at home this year, Calgary is still 3-1 SU. And despite the Als being 9-2 ATS in their last 11, I definitely believe that they’re in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: The Alouettes are getting QB Vernon Adams Jr. and RB William Stanback this week, but one has to wonder how effective they’ll be after each sat out last weekend with injury? The Stamps have finally adjusted to QB Nick Arbuckle running the show, entering this one having gone 4-2 SU in their last six. I’m banking on Montreal finally taking a step back here vs. this determined home side. Lay the points. Calgary Stampeders 10* play |
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08-12-19 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 3 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is the first game of a double-header and I believe that the home side is going to lay the hammer down in the first game after leaving Toronto with a 1-0 victory yesterday afternoon. Baltimore earned an 8-7 win in Houston on Sunday, but previous to that had been outscored 58-16 during a five-game slide. The home side hands the ball to James Paxton, while the visitors go with Gabriel Ynoa. The pitchers: Ynoa (1-6, 5.57) is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA as a starter. Paxton (7-6, 4.40) enters having gone 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA over his last two starts. Paxton is 4-1 with a 3.38 ERA in six career outings vs. Baltimore. The pick: New York is 13-2 in this season series, hitting 52 home runs and scoring 118 runs, while collectively hitting .301 and posting a 1.028 OPS. The Yanks hit 16 homers in sweeping all three games vs. the Orioles in Baltimore last weekend and all signs point to another blowout early on Monday. Lay the 1.5 runs. |
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08-09-19 | Bucs v. Steelers -1.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have gone through significant changes in the off-season. Tampa Bay has a new coach in Bruce Arians. The Steelers move forward without RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. I’ll point out though that the Bucs haven’t finished a preseason above .500 since going 3-1 in 2008, while Pittsburgh hasn’t lost a preseason since going 1-3 in 2016. The pick: The Bucs were just 5-11 last year, while Pittsburgh was a subpar 9-6-1 (for its lofty standards year in and year out.) With both team’s backup’s seeing the majority of time today, I think the advantage falls to the home side, who rides the wave of emotion. The Steelers compete in the preseason and I expect that trend to continue to open 2019. Lay the points. Pittsburgh Steelers 8* play |
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08-01-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 2-8 | Win | 109 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one. The Dodgers return home and hand the ball to their ace Clayton Kershaw and I think he and the hard-hitting home side are worth laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. The scuffling visiting side goes with Joey Lucchesi. The pitchers: Lucchesi (7-5, 4.12 ERA) is 1-0 with a 4.76 ERA vs. the Dodgers this year, after join 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA last season. Kershaw (9-2, 2.85) is 1-0 with a 3.15 ERA in three starts vs. the Padres this year and he’s 19-6 with a 2.00 ERA in 37 career match ups. The pick: San Diego won three in a row in LA in early July, so the home side won’t be taking anything for granted. Despite losing their last two home games, the Dodgers are still an impressive 40-14 at Chavez Ravine. Look for Kershaw to easily get the better of Lucchesi. LA Dodgers -1.5 9* play |
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08-01-19 | Broncos -3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: There’s no more meaningless game of the entire year than the first pre-season game. That said, this is the coaching debut of Broncos’ Vic Fangio and because of that, I believe he’s going to be out to win tonight. Fagio was the defensive coordinator of the Bears’ top-ranked defense in 2018. Joe Flacco likely won’t see much or any time for Denver, meaning that rookie Drew Lock from Missouri will be given the green light. The pick: Atlanta is just 5-11 in the preseason under head coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons still have more questions than answers after a 7-9 season and I think the Falcons are going to get “out-coached” in Week 1 (note that ATL star receiver Julio Jones is out for the preseason with a foot injury.) I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout in Fangio’s debut. Denver Broncos 10* play |
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07-17-19 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -1.5 | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: Eduardo Rodriguez has had issues for Boston this year, but overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid. The Jays’ Aaron Sanchez has been a complete train-wreck though and I think he’ll struggle in this difficult road venue. The pitchers: Sanchez (3-13, 6.22 ERA) has lost each of his last nine starts and 12 straight decisions while posting a deplorable 8.05 ERA in the process. Rodriguez (10-4, 4.43) comes in off his best start of the year, striking out ten and giving up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Dodgers. The pick: After yesterday’s 10-4 victory, I believe the Jays have a predictable letdown here; lay the 1.5 runs for the “pick em” price. BOSTON RL |
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07-17-19 | Tigers v. Indians -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Tribe’s offense is firing on all cylinders right now and Cleveland comes into this one sitting 13 games over .500. Over its last 11 games Cleveland has gone 9-2 and hit 20 homers and plated 66 runs. The lowly visiting side hands the ball to Spencer Turnbull, while the home side goes with Mike Clevinger. The pitchers: Turnbull (3-8, 3.59 ERA) has faced the Indians three times this year and he’s 0-3 with a 7.07 ERA. Clevinger (2-2, 3.99) comes in off back-to-back strong outings, most recently holding the Twins to one run off four hits over five innings on Friday. The pick: Detroit’s offense is last in the league with only 335 runs and 724 hits. Turnbull returned from the IL last Friday and he got shelled for five runs off four hits over three innings in a no-decision vs. the Royals on Friday. This one has “blowout” written all over it, so lay the 1.5 runs and expect a rout. INDIANS RL |
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07-17-19 | Mets +1.5 v. Twins | 14-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: In a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the “pick em” price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. New York held on for a 3-2 win last night and I believe it’ll carry that momentum over here. The visitors go with Jason Vargas on the hill, while the home side goes with Martin Perez. The pitchers: Vargas (3-5, 4.23 ERA) is 8-4 with a 3.80 ERA in 20 career games vs. Minnesota. Perez (8-3, 4.26) most recently gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings in a win over the Rangers in July 5th. The pick: Note that Vargas is in fact 3-0 with a 0.78 ERA in his last four starts vs. the Twins. The Twins are sliding and I believe that regression continues. Grab the 1.5 runs. METS RL |
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07-14-19 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Red Sox | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs. Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the call for the visitors, while the home side counters with David Price. The pitchers: Ryu (10-2, 1.73 ERA): "He's been the epitome of consistency," LA manager Dave Roberts. "He's been the best pitcher in the National League." Price (7-2, 3.24) has been the best pitcher on the team this year, but I still think he’s over-classed on the mound tonight. The pick: LA bounced back from a series opening loss to win convincingly last night and while the outright win isn’t out of the question here either, in a contest which I see being decided late or in extra frames, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs. 6* RUN-LINE BLOWOUT |
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07-13-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa -9 | Top | 36-19 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The RedBlacks suffered a humbling 29-14 loss at home to the Blue Bombers last weekend and I believe they’ll take out their frustrations on the very contented Alouettes, who scored the 36-29 upset win at home over the Ti-Cats last time out. Montreal got 203 yards and three rushing TD’s from William Stanback last weekend, but I have a hard time seeing the RB producing the same effort here. Ottawa didn’t help itself last week either by posting 110 penalty yards on ten flags. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Montreal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 7.5 to 14 points range, while Ottawa is still 11-6 ATS in its last 17 vs. the division. The stage is set for a big bounce back performance for the RedBlacks. Lay the points. 10* COACH’S CLINIC on Ottawa. |
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07-13-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -1.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -158 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: The massive talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the reasonable mid-sized price in my opinion. New York comes in off a satisfying 4-0 win in yesterday’s opener and I believe an even bigger blowout is in the cards here. The visitors hand the ball to Clayton Richard, while the home side goes with JA Happ. The pitchers: Richard (1-5, 6.23 ERA) is so far 0-1 with a 4.22 ERA in two stars vs. the Yankees this season. Happ most recently allowed three runs over six innings in an 8-1 loss to the Orioles. Happ (7-4, 5.02) is 14-4 with a 4.05 ERA overall since coming over to the Yankees from Toronto. Most recently he gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Rays. The pick: Happ has dominated his former team in the past, going 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA in four career starts vs. Toronto. I expect Happ to easily out duel his volatile counterpart. Lay the 1.5 runs. 8* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on New York Yankees. |
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07-06-19 | Phillies +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies destroyed the Mets 7-2 last night and I think they carry that momentum over here. While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, in a contest which I envision being decided late or even in extra frames, I’m going to lay the very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Noah Syndergaard. The pitchers: Arrieta (8-6, 4.43 ERA) won his second straight start on Sunday, giving up four runs over six innings to beat the Marlins 13-6. Syndergaard (5-4, 4.56) returned from the IL last weekend and he received a no-decision after allowing three runs over five innings vs. the Braves. The pick: New York has gone 13-23 since May 27th to fall out of contention and its relievers have posted an atrocious 8.01 ERA in that span. Look for Philadelphia to take advantage again. Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 10* play |