At 1:00pm ET, my Bowl Game Of the Year is on Texas. Happy New Year everyone! Last year, I played against the Longhorns in their New Year's Day loss against Washington. That was a very good Texas team. Washington was extremely strong though. This year, Texas is even better. Much better, as a matter of fact. Plus, the Longhorns' opponent isn't nearly as strong as last year. The Sun Devils had a great season but they don't have the talent or the athleticism to hang with Texas. The Sun Devils benefitted from a soft schedule and didn't face any teams on the level of Texas. They lost to Cincinnati and Texas Tech and they squeaked past BYU, UCF, Kansas and Texas State. The long layoff (Sun Devils haven't played since 12/7) doesn't help them either. The Longhorns, who handled Clemson on 12/21, are on a mission and they're determined to get rid of the bad taste from last year. They will score early and often and Arizona State will not be able to keep up. Lay the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my TNF Game Of the Year is on Chicago. We've got Seattle playing a must win game against a Chicago team which has lost 9 in a row. Unless they're from Chicago, not too many recreational bettors are likely to want anything to do with the Bears. This is not an easy spot for Seattle though and the Bears are going to view this is a big game. This is their chance to be relevant. Seattle knows that even if it wins this game, it might not matter. The Seahawks also know that playing on the road, on a short week through Christmas, will not be easy. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith said this: "We got a tough Chicago team on the road. I know their record isn't the greatest, but if you watch film on those guys, they got a tough team with a lot of talent. We got to be ready coming off a short week, traveling on Christmas. Guys got to get their minds right." The Bears might be 0-7 on the road but they are still 4-4 at home. I will take the points, as this will likely be a close game. But I was tempted to go money-line, as I've got the Bears scoring the upset! Play on Chicago. 

At 1:00 pm Et, my AFC Game Of the week is on Pittsburgh. The Chiefs have been finding ways to win all year. Their good fortune will run out on Christmas Day, at Pittsburgh. Both teams have had to deal with the same schedule. They're each playing their 5th game in December. This will be a very short week for both. With that difficult schedule and short week, playing at home should make things a little easier. The Steelers have been much better at home all season. They've beaten Baltimore here. They're 5-1 here compared to 5-4 on the road. The Chiefs are tough to beat anywhere but their only loss came on the road. The only other time that Tomlin's team was off consecutive losses, the Steelers responded with a 32-13 win. Grab the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my December Bowl Game Of the Month is on South Florida. San Jose State had a really fine season. They had very few returning starters and a new head coach. Going 7-5 and getting to a bowl game should be considered to be a successful season, no matter what happens here. Laying more than a field goal against a USF team which is arguably more talented than they are is a tall order though. The Spartans weren't necessarily expected to get to a bowl but the Bulls absolutely were. After a 2-4 start to the season, it didn't look good for the Bulls. They showed a lot of resolve though and won 4 of their final 6 to get here. With a 6-6 record, they badly want to win this game and finish with a winning record instead of a losing one. I won with the Bulls in their Bowl game last year, mentioning how important winning the bowl was to the USF program. You might remember that game, they were underdogs and they beat Syracuse 45-0! Byrum Brown threw three touchdown passes and became the second USF quarterback with 4,000 total yards in a season. Brown has been out since September but has been working hard to get back. With or without Brown, this USF team is coming here on a mission to secure another victory. The Spartans are off 3-point win, their 3rd game decided by 4 or less. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm Et, my Revenge Game Of the Year is on the Cleveland Browns. If asked, both Browns' fans and Bengals' fans would probably say that Pittsburgh is their biggest rival. (The Steelers would say that their biggest rival is the Ravens.) That doesn't mean that these 2 Ohio-based NFC North rivals don't share a special type of hatred for each other. The Browns season might be over but misery loves company. They can do serious damage to the Bengals' chances by beating them on Sunday. At the same time, they will exact revenge from an earlier loss at Cleveland. The Browns had a 336-223 edge in yards in that 21-14 October loss. They dominated time of possession and limited the Bengals to 12 first downs. The reality is that the Bengals aren't likely going to make the playoffs, even if they win this game. They need to win all 3 of their games. They need to also have either the Broncos are the Chargers lose out. Additionally, they would still need both Miami and Indianapolis to lose at least one game. The Browns don't care about all that. They know that if they win on Sunday that Cincinnati will not be going to the playoffs. That'll be the sweetest type of revenge. Grab the points.

At 1:00 PM ET, my AFC Game Of The Year is on the Tennessee Titans. On Monday night, the whole world was reminded of how dangerous the Burrow/Chase duo is. They were the main story-line and took attention away from the fact that the Bengals defense remains atrocious. They couldn't stop the Cowboys running game. Nor could stop the Cowboys passing game. The 27.7 points allowed per game is the 4th worst in the NFL, 2nd worst in the AFC. (The Raiders allow 27.8 ppg.) The Bengals allow 365.5 yards per game, 7th worst in the NFL. The Cowboys, playing with Prescott, Tennessee allows just 291.8 yards per game, 2nd best in the NFL and best in the AFC. The Bengals are off the big Monday night win and before that they had a big division game against the Steelers. Next up is another division game against instate rival Cleveland. A road game against the Titans, on a short week, is going to spell trouble. Even the Titans will be able to move the ball against this Bengal defense. They'll want this game more and they'll play harder. Give me the points!

At 1:00pm ET, my NFL Game Of The Year is on Tampa Bay. Excellent setup for the Buccaneers. The Bucs have gone through their low point, 4 straight losses, and come out on the other side. They're off consecutive victories and are now in a dogfight with the Falcons for the NFC South division lead. You'd have to forgive the Raiders if they don't really care about Tampa. The Raiders just put everything they had into beating the rival Chiefs, the defending world champions. They deserved to win but didn't. The kicker Daniel Carson deserves some of the blame but this is a 2-10 team which finds ways to lose. After coming so close to defeating the champs, the Raiders won't have much left in the tank on Sunday. When the Bucs win, they've shown that they can win big. They gashed the Giants 30-7. They smashed the Saints 51-27. They obliterated the Eagles 33-16 and they waxed Washington 37-20. Each of their home wins have come by more than 14. Before the close defeat at KC, the Raiders last 3 losses all came by double-digits. Lay the points.

At 8:00 PM ET, my Conference Championship Game Of the Year is on Clemson. Dabo Swinney and the Tigers aren't happy. They're not happy with themselves for losing to South Carolina last week and they're not happy with hearing everyone talking about them backing in here. (After losing against the Gamecocks, they wouldn't be in this game if not for Syracuse upsetting Miami last week.) Swinney will use the talk to motivate his team. They're going to mess everything up (for the playofs) when they win too, as Clemson would then get the automatic berth leaving SMU's fate to be determined by the selection committee. Swinney had this to say: "We didn't accomplish all of our goals during the regular season, but we've got two goals left: Win the conference and win the closer. If we do that, we'll be national champions. We were the first 15-0 national championship team," Swinney said of the 2018 season. "Maybe we can be the first three-loss national championship team. Boy, that would upset some people." SMU's had a great season but Clemson has the talent to match the Mustangs and the Tigers experience here can't be overlooked. The Tigers have won eight of the last ten ACC championships. Don't forget that this game is played in Chalotte, which is only a couple hours away from Clemson. SMU is playing more than 1000 miles away from home. Grab the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFC North Game Of The Year is on Detroit. The NFC North has 3 of the best teams in the NFC. The Lions, Vikings and Packers all have 9 or more wins. No single team in the NFC South has more than 6. Only Seattle, which has 7, has more than 6. Of the 3 NFC North teams with 9 or more, the Lions stand alone at the top with 11. They beat the Packers at Lambeau and now they will seize control of the division by completing the series sweep. I've been around a lot of years and this may be the best Lions team I can remember. (This is their best record through 12 games in team history.) They've won 10 straight. Other than a game at Philadelphia, the Packers have faced some weak teams on the road. Their 4 other road games came against teams who are a combined 15-33, none of them above .500. They won't benefit from the elements at Lambeau and will be exposed by a superior Lions team. Lay the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC Game Of The Year is on Minnesota. This line could and should be higher. Minnesota is better on both sides of the ball and is playing at home. The Vikings got up against the Bears last week and let the lead slip away. They found a way to win their 4th straight and are now 9-2 on the season. Arizona went the other way, losing 16-6 to Seattle. Those teams are now tied atop the NFC West, each with 6-5 records. QB Murray got hurt in the loss at Seattle. He's expected back but might not be quite right and he may be susceptible to getting hurt again. He's obviously very important for Arizona but they're in trouble even with him. The Vikings have outscored opposing teams by 77 points this season. Arizona has outscored teams by just 8 points. Even assuming Murray and the Arizona offense is fine, the Cardinal secondary is going to struggle against a dangerous Viking attack. The Cardinals are 4-2 at home but 2-3 on the road. All 3 road losses came by 6 or more points. Off the game on the West Coast at Seattle in the Pacific Northwest, they now play an early game, their 2nd straight on the road. When they played 2 straight road games earlier, they lost the 2nd won 34-13. The Vikings can win anywhere. Their only home loss came by 2 points to the 10-1 Lions. All 4 home wins came by at least 6 points. The Vikings need to keep winning and they will. Lay the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my SEC GOW is on LSU. The Sooners are a strong team but today's setup favors the Tigers. Ripe for a letdown, Oklahoma comes off an emotional, bowl-clinching win over Alabama. That was at home. The Sooners are 1-2 on the road, 0-2 their last 2. Both losses came by 7 or more points. The Tigers have also had some issues on the road but they are 5-1 at home. LSU got on track last game and will be looking to build off the Vanderbilt win, which had snapped a 3-game skid. The Tigers are breaking out alternate purple uniforms for this game, which is Senior Night. They will celebrate by defeating the Sooners by 10+ points.

At 3:30pm ET, my #1 ACC Game Of The Month is on SMU. The Mustangs are one of the top teams in the country and they are going to show the world that today. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee said: "You've got the College Football Playoff, so every game matters. That's what's so cool about it now. The regular season is important. We'd like to finish well in everything we do, particularly on Saturday, to finish off the regular season, continue our momentum into the following week. Hopefully, continue to show the committee and others that we're worthy of continuing to play this year." The Mustangs are 10-1 on the season and their only loss was out of conference, a 3-point setback to BYU at the start of the season. They've been dismantling ACC teams and the Golden Bears are just the next one in line. Cal is off an emotional win over its biggest rival and that clinched a bowl. That's a tough situation and they will get blown out by the better and more motivated team this afternoon. Lay the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my #1 Underdog Game Of The Year is on Utah. This is a lot of points to be giving a dangerous Utah team. Too many! The Utes have had a very disappointing season. The same goes for the Knights though. They also hoped for a lot more. They're off consecutive losses and are 1-7 their last 8 games. Asking them to win is asking a lot. Asking them to win by more than a touchdown is too much! The Utes still play good defense (they rank #3 in the Big 12 for points allowed and #3 for yards allowed) and still are a proud program. Three of their last 4 losses came by 3 or less and 5 of their last 6 losses came by 8 or less. This is a team which very rarely gets blown out. UCF coach Gus Malzahn said of the Utes: "They play really good defense. They hold onto the football and we're going to have to do a good job on special teams. They're really good on special teams, too." In 1-score game, give me the points with Utah.

At 7:30pm ET, my AAC Game Of The Month is on Memphis. Tulane was much better than Memphis at the betting window this season. The Green Wave were 9-2 versus the spread and the Tigers were 5-5-1. Both teams were 9-2 straight-up though. Tulane has been crushing a lot of teams but nobody has done that to Memphis. The Tigers' 2 losses both came by 12 points or less. They'd be a perfect 14-0 ATS if they were getting this many points every game! Entering the season, Memphis was rated higher than Tulane by some. The Tigers are giving nothing away talent-wise. These teams are at the top of the AAC for wins the last five years and the last 3 meetings were all decided by 10 or less. This game is also going to be close. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Game Of The Week is on Toledo. Akron beat Kent State last week. That's expected though, as the Golden Flashes are terrible and every team beats them. The Zips are still a bad team themselves. They are 3-8 overall. They lost their last game here overall. Off a loss to Ohio last game, Toledo is 7-4. The Rockets have done a great job at responding to losses as they were 3-0 straight up and 2-1 versus the spread after their previous 3 defeats. They have beaten Akron 4 straight times and none of those games were remotely close. Scores were 49-14, 45-28, 48-21 and 48-17. Superior on both sides of the ball, another big win is in store for Toledo tonight. Lay the points.

At 8:20pm ET, my SNF Game Of The Month is on the LA Rams. Philadelphia is in a difficult scheduling spot. The Eagles are off back-to-back divisional victories and they've got a showdown at Baltimore ahead of them. With a small cushion atop the NFC East and only Washington to worry about, they may overlook the Rams. The Rams don't have that luxury as they in a 4-team dogfight in the NFC West. The Eagles are getting a lot of respect for their 6-game winning streak but the Rams have won 4 of their last 5 themselves. Matthew Stafford is 4-2 in his career versus the Eagles and he has 12 touchdown passes against only one interception. Rams coach Sean McVay said of the Eagles: "We have a lot of respect for this group. But you know, these are the moments that you love as a competitor. This is what is the best part of the NFL." He will have the Rams ready to go and they will score the upset on Sunday Night Football!

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC South Game Of The Year is on Tennessee. The Texans are a solid football team but there are still opportunities to go against them. I won with the Jets when they defeated the Texans on Halloween and this is another strong spot to play against. Houston plays on a short week after defeating instate rival Dallas on Monday Night football. These teams tend to play close games. The Texans did handle the Titans easily at the end of last season but the previous 7 meetings were all decided by single digits. In 11 games this season, Monday's win over the Cowboys marked only the 2nd time that Houston has beaten a team by more than 6 points. Playing in the AFC South, where every other team is below .500, the Texans don't have any urgency to win. They will face a Titans team which ranks 1st in the AFC (2nd in NFL) in terms of yards allowed per game and which is first in pass defense. This is just Tennessee's 2nd divisional game. The first was decided by a field goal and this one will also be close. Take the points.

At 7:45pm ET, my SEC Game Of The Month is on LSU. From an ATS perspective, Vanderbilt has had a great season. LSU has not. The Tigers are still the better team though and tonight they will make sure everyone knows it! The Tigers are off 3 straight losses and they have Oklahoma on deck for their regular season finale. They need to restore order! Things aren't as bad as they might seem. Two of their last 3 losses were on the road and the other was versus Alabama. The Tigers are still 4-1 at home, 3 of those wins coming by 17 or more points. The Commodores are off a 28-7 loss last week. They were no match for South Carolina and they won't be able to keep up with LSU. The last 2 meetings saw the Tigers win 41-7 and 66-38. Lay the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC North Game Of The Year is on Chicago. Some might think that I need to have my head checked to back the Bears in a game against the Packers. The Bears have dropped 3 in a row. They looked bad against the Patriots. They just fired their offensive coordinator. The Packers are off a bye. Green Bay has beaten the Bears 10 straight times. We need to understand that all those things are factored into the line. We're getting a lot more points than we would have been a month ago. Things change fast in the NFL. It wasn't long ago that the Bears were 4-2 and looking like a good team. They can get back there! Firing Shane Waldron was a good start. He wasn't working out. This move will help Caleb Williams. Thomas Brown has been here before and will be an upgrade. Brown was Carolina's offensive coordinator last year. With the Panthers, he took over play-calling duties for a three-week stretch in the middle of the season, when coach Frank Reich got fired. The Panthers covered the spread in 2 those 3 games with Brown calling plays, including the first, a 20-17 game at Tampa. The Packers are off a 10-point loss and before that, 7 of their previous 9 games were decided by 6 points or less. There will be no better way to quiet the voices than for the Bears to finally beat the Packers. It's going to be close and I believe they'll do it. Take the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my MAC Game Of The Year is on Akron. Given the way these teams are playing close games, this is an awful lot of points. The Huskies have seen each of their last 8 games decided by 14 or fewer points. Their only game that wasn't this season was against the Western Illinois Leathernecks. The Zips have seen each of their past 4 games decided by 11 points or less. They scored 20 or more points in all 4 of those games. The road team has won each of the past 2 meetings. Last year, NIU won big at Akron. In 2022, Akron was having a bad year and was winless in MAC play. As a matter of fact, the Zips were 1-9 and on a 9-game losing streak. They came here for a late November contest as substantial underdogs. They won outright 44-12! That game will provide them with the confidence that they can come here and shock the Huskies again. NIU has a showdown at Miami next, a big game worth looking ahead to. Even if things go badly for them, they still have a home finale against CMU to ensure bowl eligibility. Like each of the last 8 NIU games, this one will be decided by 14 or less. Grab the points.

At 10:15pm ET, my Big 12 GOM is on Utah. This year's Holy War doesn't have the setup many would have envisioned entering the season. It was Utah which was expected to be the better team. That didn't play out as BYU comes in with an undefeated record and Utah is 4-4. Don't count out the Utes though. They've won 9 of the last 10 in this series and still have an elite defense. Utah desperately needs a victory and will fight like a wounded animal. My expectation is that Utah plays its best game of the season and wins outright. A close game should also be anticipated. BYU had a recent 3-point win and Utah is off a 3-point loss. Grab the points.

At 7:30pm ET, my MAC Conf. GOW is on Central Michigan. This is too many points for Bowling Green to be laying on the road against a Central Michigan team which plays much better on its home field. With an 0-4 road record, if this game was at Bowling Green, the Chippewas would be in a big trouble. They are 3-1 at home though. As a matter of fact, their only loss at Kelly/Shorts Stadium was by 2 points. Bowling Green did win by 15 at Toledo but was 1-2 in its other 3 road games and that other win was by 7. CMU's last 3 games here were decided by 2, 1 and 3 points. This is going to be another tight one. Grab the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Game Of The Month is on Tampa Bay. This is too many points to be giving a competitive Tampa Bay team. The Buccaneers are off a 5-point loss. The Chiefs are off a 7-point win. The Bucs have played 3 road games. They have 2 wins and a 6-point loss to show for them. Baker Mayfield is giving Tampa great QB play and the Bucs offense is tough to stop right now. Two of the Chiefs' 3 home games were very close. They beat Baltimore by 7, a game the Ravens were inches away from tying. They also beat the Bengals by 1 here. Eight of their past 10 games, since last year's playoffs, have been decided by 7 point or less. Nine of those 10 were decided by 10 or less. The Chiefs are happy to win the close ones. Mahomes commented: "However we have to win the football game, I'm good with it." This is going to be another close one. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC East Game Of The Year is on Miami. The Dolphins may not have won last week's game but Tua Tagoavailoa returned and he brought the Dolphins offense back with him. They're an entirely different team with their starting QB under center. They scored 27 points last week, Tua going 28 of 38. After the game, the Dolphins star QB said that he felt good: “It feels good to be able to come back and play with my teammates to hopefully help in any way I can to get a spark going for us offensively. Or get the mojo going for the entire team. It was good today, but tough loss against a really good team." Expect Tua and the Dolphins to be ready to go against Buffalo. The Bills are returning from the West Coast. They played 3 road games in October and are dealing with a lot of injuries. Their big wins have come against weaker opposition. Their last divisional game was a hard-fought 3 point win over the Jets. The Bills won big at Miami, the game Tua got concussed, but the stats show that the Dolphins held them to 247 yards and 13 first downs. The Dolphins desperately need this game to turn their season around. They've got their leader back and will battle the Bills until the final whistle. Grab the points.

AT 4:15pm ET, my NCAA Game Of The Year is on Mississippi State. College football may feature more parity than it once did but this game will demonstrate that there is still a massive difference between the SEC and a school from a lesser conference. Or, in this case, no conference at all. (Massachusetts will join the MAC next season but is currently an Independent.) The Minutemen are a little better than they used to be. They had back to back 1-11 seasons in 2021 and 2022. Last year, they got to 3-9. This year, they're 2-6. That's as many wins as they'll get this year though and if you look at their 2 victories, you see that they both came at home and that they were against Wagner and Central Conn. State. They're both FCS schools. The Minutemen are 0-4 on the road, 3 of the 4 road losses were by 14 or more points. They faced one SEC opponent (Missouri) and they lost 45-3. This is a game where the Bulldogs can finally snap their losing streak. They've had a long season and first year coach Jeff Lebby will be fully focused on the opportunity which presents itself to them here. The Minutemen can't effectively stop the run and Mississippi State will be gaining big chunks at a time. The Bulldogs have only been favored by more than 14 points once this season and they crushed Eastern Kentucky by a 56-7 score. They're 4-1 ATS the past 5x times that they were favored at home by more than 14. With a rare reprieve from SEC play, the Bulldogs will be more than happy to run up the score against an outmatched opponent. Lay the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my NFL Non-Conf. GOW is on the New York Giants. We're getting extra points with the Giants because of them being on the road. But they've been terrific on the road. In 3 road games, the G-Men are 2-1. They won at Seattle. They won at Cleveland. Their only road loss came by just 3 points, at Washington. The Steelers are riding high off their big wins over the Raiders and Jets. Their first 5 games were all decided by 10 or less though. They're 0-1 against the NFC East. Four meetings over the years were all decided by 10 or less. We saw that the Jets couldn't even beat the Patriots yesterday. So the Steelers having a big win against the Jets wasn't that special. Same with their win over the Raiders, who were really struggling at the time. They will have a far more difficult time with a Giants team which has talent and which is hell-bent on bouncing back with a victory. Grab the points.

At 8:20pm ET, my NFC Game Of the Month is on San Francisco. Both teams were probably hoping to be in a better place right now. Dallas started the season with a convincing win at Cleveland. Since then, America's Team is 2-3, just 1-3-1 versus the spread. The Cowboys had a bye last week but are still licking their wounds after a 47-9 shellacking at the hands of the Detroit Lions. The 49ers are off a loss to the defending world champions. Purdy didn't play well and they were still in position to win. A visit from the Cowboys will bring out the best in Purdy and the 49ers. San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS in 3 meetings with Dallas since January 2022. Purdy was 17 of 24 with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the last game. SF had a 25-8 edge in first downs. The Dallas run defense is a mess right now. Jordan Mason will have a big game and that will take pressure off Purdy. Shanahan out-coaches McCarthy and the 49ers beat the Cowboys for a 4th straight time.

At 1:00pm ET, my AFC North Game Of The Year is on the Cleveland Browns. One never wants to see a player injured and I'm sorry for Deshaun Watson that he got hurt. It happened though. (Some Browns fans actually cheered about the injury.) That gives us some extra value with the Browns betting line this week. We're getting more than a touchdown with t the home underdog in a bitter divisional rivalry. Better still, the Browns are going to be better for the change at the quarterback position. Watson has been a disaster for him. They'd invested too much in him to pull the plug but now that their hand has been forced, they can move on. For now, Jameis Winston will be an upgrade and will breathe some life into the Browns. The Ravens are playing well but they aren't unbeatable. Three of their wins came by 7 or less and their only divisional game was decided by 3 points. The last h2h meeting was decided by 2 points, a 33-31 win by the Browns. They have beaten Baltimore outright 3 of the past 5 meetings. Only 1 of the last 7 meetings has resulted in a Baltimore win of more than 6. This game will come down to the wire and the Browns have a great chance at the upset. Grab the points.

At 7:00pm ET, my CFB Underdog Game Of The Week is on West Virginia. Line movement has provided us additional value with the visiting Mountaineers. WVU is off bad losses to Iowa State and K-State. Those teams are both better than the one they'll face today. They've played well in their 2 road games, blowing out Oklahoma State and losing by 4 at Pittsburgh. Though the Mountaineers have some injury issues, the Wildcats' injuries may be even worse. Should Greene not be able to go at QB for WVU, Arizona native Nicco Marchiol will be ready to go. Coach Brown said: “He’s going to get a bunch of reps, so if his number’s called he’ll be ready and I expect him to play at a high level." Arizona will be without linebacker Jacob Manu, one of the team's captains, and offensive tackle Rhino Tapa'atoutai Last week, the Wildcats got the news that starting safeties Gunner Maldonado and Treydan Stukes likely were done for the season. Arizona is off 3 straight losses and has dropped 4 of its last 5. The last 2 losses were by a combined score of 75-26. They have no business being favored by more than a field goal in this game. Grab the points.

AT 5:00pm ET, my Sun Belt Conf. Game Of the Year is on South Alabama. UL Monroe has the better record. But South Alabama is a substantial favorite. Hmmm. No, there's nothing fishy going on. The Jaguars are just a much stronger team. When these teams played last year, the Jaguars had a +339 edge in yards! (589-250) They were up 31-0 by the 2nd quarter and won 55-7! Bryant Vincent has done a terrific job in his first year coaching ULM and has the Warhawks improving faster than expected. But they aren't yet ready to erase such a gap in one season. South Alabama can beat you both ways. On offense, the Jaguars scored 87 points in a game earlier this season and 48 in another. Last game they showed the defense can do it too. They held Troy to 9 points and 172 total yards, only 36 yards, on 22 carries, on the ground. Playing their best football of the season and in need of a victory, the Jaguars will be too much for ULM again this season. Lay the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my CUSA Game Of the Week is on UTEP. This is what I said about UTEP last week: "The Miners knew that they faced some challenges under first year coach Scotty Walden. They've endured those struggles and will ultimately be better for them. They've been fighting hard and a Wednesday home game against FIU provides them the opportunity to break through with a victory. The Panthers have only won 1 game by more than 7 points and that was over a month ago, at home. They are 0-3 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 16.3 points. The Miners won 27-14 at FIU last season and they smashed the Panthers 40-6 here in 2022. The Panthers need this win to help their bowl chances but the Miners need it to avoid being the first team eliminated from bowl contention. They know that a bowl isn't in their future (as the upcoming schedule includes a road game at Tennessee) but they are going to go all out to get that first win. They'll be able to trade points with FIU and have an excellent shot at the upset." Sure enough, the Miners got that upset. Off the 30-21 win, rewarded for their hard work, they are suddenly feeling good about themselves. LA Tech is not feeling nearly so good. The Bulldogs are off a gut-wrenching 33-30 Double OT loss. They are 1-4 their last 5 games and 2-8 their last 10. One of the 2 wins was against Nicholls State and LA Tech didn't even win that one very easily. With the Miners suddenly feeling good about things and the Bulldogs off a double-OT loss, I smell another upset. Grab the points.

At 1:00pm ET, my NFC East Game Of The Year is on the Philadelphia Eagles. The last time that these teams played each other, Saquon Barkley scored the first 2 touchdowns of the game. With Barkley paving the way, the Giants got off to a 24-0 lead and won 27-10. Prior to that, the Eagles had beaten the Giants 5 straight times, each win coming by more than 5 points. The problem for the Giants, or at least one of them, is that Saquon is now going to be playing against them. He's already got 574 yards with five touchdowns (four rushing, one receiving) in five games this season. Complementing Barkley, the Eagles got top receiver A.J. Brown back last week and he immediately had a huge game. The Giants could use Barkley back, as their offense is a mess. They're averaging 16 points a game, fewest in the NFC. The NY defense has been good but not good enough to make up for the lack of offense. The Giants scored only 7 points last week. Their kicker missed both FG's. The team has lost some confidence in him and he will have lost some himself. The Giants have been decent on the road but they are 0-3 at Met Life Stadium. Look for the home fans to turn hostile with Barkley and the Eagles walking away with a convincing win and cover.

At 3:30 ET my AAC Game Of The Year is on Rice. Tulane destroyed UAB in its last game. That result is one of the reasons that this line is so high. Its an over-reaction, in my strong opinion. Tulane does deserve to be favored but not by nearly this much. We've got an over-valued team against one which is flying under the radar. The Owls are playing much better now than they were at the beginning of the season but their lines haven't adjusted yet. They beat UTSA last game and they lost by only 1 in their previous game. On the subject of close games, take a look at the scores from the last three meetings between these teams. Last year, it was 30-28. Tulane may be better but Rice arguably also has a better team this year than last. Two previous meetings were 49-47 and 17-13. With a big showdown versus North Texas on deck, the Green Wave may look past the Owls. I'm anticipating another close game. Playing their best football, grab the points with the upset-minded visitors.

At 4:05 ET, my AFC West Game Of The Year is on the Los Angeles Chargers. Some might have been surprised to see the Chargers open as small road favorites. Those same people would likely have been even more confused when the line climbed and the Chargers became an even larger favorite. Rest assured, the oddsmakers got this one right. LA deserves to be favored. (Sharps would be pounding the Chargers all day if they weren't favored.) The Chargers just had a bye at the perfect time. They were off back-to-back losses and dealing with some injuries to key players. They're healthier now, well-rested and well-prepared. The Broncos are known for their defense but with 12.6 points allowed per game, it's the Chargers who come in allowing the fewest points in the NFL. On offense, though Nix has impressed as a rookie, I'll side with the far more experienced Herbert, JK Dobbins and the Chargers. We're backing what I believe to be the better team, in a situation where they are coming off a bye and where they badly need a victory. Lay the small number.

At 7:45pm ET, my SEC Game Of The Year is on Kentucky. The Commodores are off the biggest upset in school history. It was their first ever win against a #1 team and the first time that they'd beaten Alabama in 40 years. If there's ever a time for a letdown, this is it. Letdown or not, the Commodores remain winless on the road. Now they go on the road to face a Kentucky team which has beaten them 7 of the past 8 meetings including a 17-point win by the Wildcats last year. Kentucky is also off a big upset as it went on the road and knocked off Ole Miss. The Wildcats have had a bye since the game though and it wasn't as big an upset as Vanderbilt just had. Plus, Kentucky had very nearly defeated Georgia earlier. They believed that they could win at Ole Miss. Even the Vanderbilt players never dreamed of defeating the Crimson Tide. In the Wildcats last home game, they thrashed Ohio by a 41-6 score. Stoops hasn't forgotten that the Commodores pulled the upset last time here. He will make sure it doesn't happen again with his Wildcats pulling away to win by more than 20.

At 10:30pm ET, my Big 12 Game Of The Month is on Utah. The Utes enjoyed a bye after their loss against Arizona. They are itching to get back on the field and will be extremely determined to avoid another loss. The Utes hope to have QB Rising back and the bye helps his chances. They've been piling up games without him though and will be fine if he doesn't play. The Utes have beaten the Sun Devils four straight times after crushing them 55-3 last season. Rising didn't play in that game and Utah still won by more than 50! The Sun Devils managed only 7 first downs and 83 yards of total offense. Utah had 26 first downs and more than 500 yards of offense. The Utes vastly superior defense will be the difference again on Friday night.

At 8:15pm ET, my Thursday Night GOM is on San Francisco. Each of these teams lost last week. Both are coming in very hungry for a win. San Francisco coughed up a double-digit 4th quarter lead, something previously unheard of under Kyle Shanahan. Everyone is focusing in on the blown lead but its also important to recognize that the 49ers were up big in the 4th and in a position to cover. The 49ers are still a well-coached Super Bowl contender. They're still very probably going to win the NFC West and winning Thursday's game in Seattle will be a big step towards that. The Seahawks are not a Super Bowl contender. They got off to a hot start, thanks partly due to a soft early schedule, but have come back down to earth. They have the youngest coach in the NFL. The 49ers average the 2nd most yards in the NFL, the most in the NFC. Not only do they average more yards than the Seahawks, they also allow less. The 49ers have won 5 straight games in the series, 2 of those coming in Seattle. All 5 victories came by more than a touchdown. Make it 6 straight after Thursday.

At 7:00pm ET, my CUSA Game Of The Month is on Liberty. There is a serious difference in class between FIU and Liberty. Both brought back many players from last year. For Liberty, that's a good thing. The Flames were 13-0 in the regular season before losing to Oregon on New Year's Day. They're undefeated again this season. Returning a large number of starters hasn't been as helpful for FIU. The Panthers were 4-8 last season and they're 2-3 to start this year. A home loss to Monmouth says a lot about this team. They lost their only road game by 18 points and that was against rival FAU. This is a far more formidable opponent. The Flames were involved in a couple of closer games last season but by the time they got to FIU, they smashed the Panthers 38-6. Liberty had a 520 to 211 advantage in total yards, 324-135 at half. This will be another big-time blowout. Lay the points.

At 8:15pm ET, my MNF Game Of the Month is on Kansas City. The Chiefs have won some close ones and the Saints have won some blowouts. That has some people thinking the Saints are better than they really are and that the Chiefs aren't as good as they really are. Otherwise, this line could easily be -7 or higher. The Chiefs do have some injuries to a couple of key offensive weapons and that's getting a lot of attention. Mahomes still has weapons though and he and Kelce are finally on the same page again. Also, the Saints have their own injury issues that aren't getting talked about nearly so much. New Orleans tight end Taysom Hill, guard Cesar Ruiz, center Shane Lemieux, linebacker Willie Gay Jr. and defensive end Payton Turner were all ruled out and their list is much longer than that. The Saints 2 blowout wins came in the first 2 weeks. Since then, they've had a close win and a close loss. That close loss (to the division rival Falcons) in their last game was a costly one. It was a game they let get away and it will still be replaying in their minds. Off that painful loss and with another division showdown on deck, they are now taking on the world champs while playing their 2nd straight road game. The Chiefs get a bye next week. They beat Miami by 7 before their bye last season and they smashed SF 44-23 before their bye the previous year. The year before was a 10-point win over Dallas. They will be ready to do it again tonight. Lay the points.

At 4:05pm ET, my NFC West Game Of the Year is on Arizona. The 49ers are a strong team but they will have their hands full with the Cardinals on Sunday. At 1-3, Arizona is coming in desperate. The Cardinals could have a better record and have played pretty well in 3 of 4 games. Their only road game was a 6-point loss at Buffalo and they very nearly won that game. The 49ers earned a big victory last week. That was against a New England team which isn't very good. This divisional opponent has a lot more teeth and comes in needing and expecting to win. The 49ers have a plethora of injuries. Key players Fred Warner and George Kittle both missed Wednesday practice. Whether or not they play remains to be seen but either way this team is not healthy. Before the win over New England, the 49ers were off consecutive losses. Things aren't all better yet and they will get surprised by their upset-minded guests. Grab the points.

At 8:00pm ET, my Mountain West Game Of The Year is on San Diego State. The Aztecs really need this one. They kicked off the season with a big win here against a lesser opponent. That was followed by a loss to Oregon State and then back-to-back road losses. Its taken some time to adjust to their new coach and new system but they've been showing signs of improvement though and did some good things in last week's 1-point road loss. A game against Hawaii comes at the right time. The Aztecs have won 4 in a row against the Warriors. Also, playing at Snapdragon Stadium will provide the Aztecs with an important advantage. The Warriors can be tough at home but they are winless on the road. (The Warriors only road game resulted in a 31-13 loss at Sam Houston State.) In the end, homefield will make a difference and the Aztecs will come away with the important win and cover.

At 8:00pm ET, my Rivalry Game Of The Year is on New Mexico State. This line is very generous given that I believe that the Aggies can easily win outright. New Mexico is 0-4. New Mexico State is 1-3. Those records were expected as the Lobos have been big underdogs in all 4 of their games while the Aggies were underdogs in 3 of theirs but favored in the other. It's true that New Mexico was more competitive in losing against their one common opponent (Fresno State) than New Mexico State was. The Lobos got to host the Bulldogs though and the Aggies has to go to Fresno. The Aggies have played really well at home. They won the game that they were supposed, a 23-16 victory over S.E. Missouri State. They rallied in the 4th quarter for the victory and that will help their confidence should this one also be close in the 4th quarter. In the Aggies other home game, they only lost by 6 points in the final minute to Liberty. That's very impressive when factoring in that Liberty was 13-0 last season and is undefeated again this year. New Mexico lost both its road games by more than 20 points. The Aggies are 7-1 versus the spread the last 8 h2h meetings and the underdog is 11-2 ATS the last 13. Though the opposition was tough, with an 0-4 record New Mexico hasn't shown it can win yet. Now the Lobos are being asked to go on the road and win by more than a touchdown. The Aggies won by 10 last year and 12 the year before that. New Mexico's last 2 wins in the series both came by single-digits. This one will be close! Grab the points.

At 7:45pm ET, my Blowout GOW is on LSU. The Tigers haven't covered a spread yet. They've won 3 in row straight up though and they have been getting better each week. They narrowly missed covering in a win at South Carolina 2 weeks ago and then the same thing happened in last week's win over UCLA. Now they face a weaker opponent which is susceptible to giving up a lot of points. South Alabama gave up 550 yards and 52 points in a loss against North Texas. The Tigers are going to have a field day offensively. The Jaguars have been scoring a lot but they haven't seen a defense like this one. Things get harder for LSU after this game. The Tigers face Ole Miss and then go on the road for 2 games. Then comes Alabama. They need to take advantage of this lesser foe and build confidence by running them out of the building. That's what will happen. They will keep piling up the points and the Jaguars will be unable to match. Statement blowout for the Tigers!

At 7:30 ET, my Monday Night Football Game Of The Month is on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Always nice to get treated to 2 Monday night games! The first features the Bills hosting the Jaguars. Buffalo is 2-0 and Jacksonville is 0-2. Both teams are 1-1 versus the pointspread. The Jaguars won't panic but they know they need this game. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence said this: "We can't hit the panic button, but we've got to have some real conversations. We've got too good of a team to come out here and perform two weeks in a row like this. I mean, these games are precious and you don't get them back, and we're 0-2 to start the year and it's not going to get any easier. We'd better fix it quick." The Jaguars have a couple of ex-Bills on the roster and they are going to be extra motivated to take on their old team. Josh Allen didn't have to do much last week against Miami. The Dolphins' QB got knocked out. Buffalo benefitted from short fields and just had to run the ball. Things will be different on Monday. The Jaguars beat the Bills in 2021 and 2023, both very close games. That's 7 straight h2h meetings decided by 7 or less. This will be another close one and I'll take the points!

At 3:30 ET, my Big Ten GOY is on Michigan. The Wolverines' loss to Texas really put a bad taste in a lot of bettors' mouths about Michigan. Many wrote them off as a bad team after that loss. That's not really fair though. The Longhorns are very powerful this season and the Wolverines have a lot of new players and a new coach. The Wolverines had beaten Fresno State by 20 the previous week, when laying 20.5. Last week, they shook off the Texas loss by defeating Arkansas State by 10. Now, they get to reset and start Big Ten play. USC has been playing well but the defense is still nowhere near the level of the Texas defense. The Wolverines are going to have a much easier time moving the ball against the Trojans than they had against the Longhorns. The new players and coach have had a chance to play together and last week's bounce-back victory will help bring them together. The run-defense was dominant. This is the first true road game for USC. LSU was a good team but the Trojans haven't faced a defense like this one. In a game which will likely be close, the Wolverines' superior defense will ultimately win the day. Play on Michigan

AT 8:15pm ET, my NFL GOW is on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta stumbled 18-10 at home to Pittsburgh in Week 1. That wasn't what they wanted but I think the Falcons will bounce back and keep this one competitive with a really decent shot at the upset. Atlanta QB Kirk Cousins looked out of sorts with his new offense, but the veteran will settle down here in his second start. Bijan Robinson rushed for 68 yards on 18 carries. The silver-lining? Clearly it was Atlanta's defense. And now Atlanta faces this suspect Philly defense. Though I won with them, the Eagles looked anything but dominant in their 34-28 win over the Packers from Brazil in Week 1. Jalen Hurts had 278 yards passing, two TDs, but also two INTs. Now Hurts will be without his favorite receiver with A.J. Brown on the sidelines. Philly also committed seven penalties and was just 4-of-14 on third down. Coming back from Brazil is a new dynamic and may not be as easy as people expect. Give me the points with the Atlanta Falcons. 

At 6:00pm ET, my CUSA GOY is on Liberty. These teams are very much at opposite ends of the Conference-USA spectrum. Liberty may be the most talented team in the conference and is the clear favorite to finish on top. The Flames were 13-0 last season and this year's team returned 14 starters. Last year, they won by 14 at UTEP. This year, they host the Miners. Plus, this year's UTEP team isn't nearly as good as last year's. Not only do the Miners have a new coach but they only returned 9 starters. Its a rebuilding year and that's been evident through the first 2 games. Getting smashed 40-7 at Nebraska was expected but the Miners also just lost at home to Southern Utah. The Flames were tested at New Mexico State last week but came roaring back in the 4th quarter. Off that close call, they will make sure to keep their foot on the gas the whole way here. This will result in a one-sided destruction. Play on Liberty.

At 8:00pm ET, my Big 12 GOY is on K-State. Both these teams are 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS. Arizona wasn't able to cover the 28-point spread over New Mexico in its 61-39 victory in Week 1, or in its 22-10 victory over Northern Arizona as a 37-point favorite. I'm expecting the underwhelming (Arizona) Wildcats to once again struggle in their first road game of the season and also their first foray into Big 12 play. Arizona QB Noah Fifita has been "OK," going 37 of 57 so far with a 5:2 TD:INT, but the defense has yet to be truly tested. This could be a very real problem, as AZ features four new starters up front on the defensive line this season. Arizona also has a new coach. K-State enters looking to move to 3-0 after beating Tulane 34-27 last time out. As mentioned, K-State has also been unable to cover the spread yet this season, but that's only also helped in driving this line down a bit lower than it normally would or should be in my opinion. I had marked the (K-State) Wildcats down as -10 for this game going into the season. The Cats were trailing by double-digits against Tulane and rallied to come back. That will serve them well here. Loaded on defense, K-State is a legitimate contender to win the Big 12. They have an experienced coach who knows his team. They are 4-0 ATS their last 4 Big 12 home openers. More talented, healthier and playing at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, look for Kansas State to pull away and take over this game down the stretch.

At 8:15pm ET, my AFC East GOM is on Miami. Want to hear an amazing stat? We have to go back several years but Miami has won ten straight divisional home contests as a favorite. Of course, this number is low enough that a victory will very likely also result in a cover. The Fish have to be feeling confident here after their 20-17 home win over Jacksonville. Tua had over 300 yards passing with a TD and the defense looked great overall in holding the Jags to just the 17 points. The short week shoujld also benefit Miami. No travel and sleeping in their own beds. This is a revenge game as well for the home side after it fell 21-14 in Week 18 at home to the Bills, the victory clinching the AFC East title for Buffalo at the time. As a matter of fact, that was the Bills' 4th straight win (and 9th win the last 10) in the series. The time is right to snap that series skid as Buffalo's defense left a lot to be desired after its come-from-behind 34-28 win over the Cardinals. Lay the small number. 

At 8:20 ET my NFL GOW is on the SF 49ers. While some may think the underdog Jets have a chance on Monday night, I'm not among them. This is still just Aaron Rodgers second game ever for his new team after suffering a season-ending injury on his first snap from scrimmage last year. The books out on the veteran's performance and he clearly has a difficult assignment here in San Francisco. The very well-coached 49ers will be very wary of trying to avoid a "Super Bowl hangover." They are Super Bowl contenders and they want to come set the tone for the season. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are both healthy and ready to go on opening night and they'll present a difficult challenge for this admittedly talented Jets' defensive unit. Rodgers is a big question mark, as is his chemistry with Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Purdy's receiving corps though is stacked, with tight-end George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. I think Rodgers will improve as the season goes on, but I'm not getting behind a 40-year old on the road, coming off such a serious injury. The pointspread is low and I will lay the points with San Francisco.

At 8:20 ET, my NFC GOW is on the LA Rams. Last year the Detroit Lions went on the road and upset the Chiefs 21-20 in Week 1. This year it's the LA Rams looking to pull off a similar upset and in my opinion, the visiting side does indeed have much more than just a "punchers chance" to win this one outright. This is a playoff rematch that saw Detroit hold on for the tight 24-23 home win in the Wild Card, unable to cover the three-point spread. I'm expecting a similar battle until the end here in the opener. That means the underdog is offering real value, particularly with the spread having climbed since it came out. This has some really interesting story lines, with Matthew Stafford once again returning to his old team, and the Rams squaring off against former QB Jared Goff. But note, the last regular season game between the team's was back in 2021 and Stafford had 334 passing and three TD's, while Goff had 268 yards, a TD and two picks. Expectations are sky-high for the Lions, as all I hear around the "water cooler" is that Detroit has the best shot coming out of the NFC. I'm not completely convinced though and believe there could be some regression this year. Either way, this Week 1 contest will come down to the wire. The Rams are 6-3-1 versus the spread their last 10 as underdogs. Grab the points.

Ohio State is 1-0 SU, but it was unable to cover the ridiculous 49-point spread in its 52-6 home win over Akron last week. Now with a much "smaller" spread this week, I believe the Buckeyes will once again blow out their opponent in front of the hometown crowd this week, while also going on to cover the more "manageable" spread at the same time. It's another case of "David vs. Goliath" this week, as Western Michigan comes to town after a 28-14 loss at Wisconsin. It covered with the 24-point spread, but I just can't see the visiting side keeping pace with the Buckeyes down the stretch. Western Michigan finally returns for its first home game of the season next week, a "cream puff" vs. Bethune Cookman. Lance Taylor struggled for the most part last week, and so did the defense for WMU (especially against the run allowing three rushing TD's.) Will Howard should be even better this week for OSU after debuting with 228 passing yards and three touchdowns in the blowout victory over Akron. The Buckeyes also return seven starters on defense and as stated, I foresee WMU really struggling to move the ball at all this weekend. The Broncos are 0-6 SU/ATS their last 6 against the Big Ten. Lay the points with confidence, the play is on the Buckeyes to win in a rout.

At 9:00pm ET, my Flea Flicker is on Northwestern. Two 1-0 teams collide here, and only one will leave with a perfect record. In my estimation, home-field advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. The Wildcats held on for the 13-6 win at home over Miami Ohio as a three-point favorite, while Duke posted the uninspiring 26-3 home victory over Elon as a -24.5-point favorite. The Blue Devils have a new coach here in Manny Diaz and while Duke came out on top at home, I believe they'll struggle in their first away game. Duke's Maalik Murphy is still adjusting to Jonathan Brewer's air-raid system and I think he'll struggle to match Mike Wright at home. Wright passed for 178 yards last week and added a game-high 65 rushing yards as well. Duke saw a ton of player turnover in its defense in the offseason and I say that becomes really apparent here on the road in Week 2 against a much tougher opponent. Look for Northwestern's balance down the stretch to prove to be the difference-maker in the outcome of this one.

At 7:30 ET, my CFB GOW is on USC. I enjoy playing College Football over the first week and here we have an opportunity to take advantage of a rare Sunday night matchup between LSU and USC in Las Vegas. Both teams have new defensive coordinators after each struggled on that side of the ball. Both will be better on that side of the ball but USC's improvement will likely be even greater. Both teams are also replacing their starting QB's, with Jayden Daniels leaving LSU and Caleb Williams departing USC. Brian Kelly has won ten games in back-to-back seasons, but to get to the next level his defense will need to take the next step to ever be considered a serious CFB Playoff contender. USC coach Lincoln Reily also enters his third season for the Trojans. This is USC's first game as a member of the tough/crowded Big Ten and after finishing 8-5 last year, Riley will have his hands full trying to duplicate that success, but I really like USC QB Miller Moss, who has plenty of weapons around him, including RB Woody Marks. LSU lost many other key players to the draft last year. The Tigers have dropped 4 straight season openers and I'm not convinced that they'll be ready to go. Grab the points with USC.

At 8:00pm ET, my August GOM is on Jacksonville State. These teams played early in the season last year, at Coastal Carolina. It was really even (10-9) for a half before the Chanticleers went on a run in the 3rd quarter. The final statistics were quite equal. Now we get a stronger, deeper Jacksonville State team playing at home. The roles are reversed as they get Coastal Carolina, which has many new faces on the roster, playing it first road game. Rich Rodriguez will have the Gamecocks ready to kick off their season by getting revenge for last year. The line is low, all 9 of the Gamecocks wins came by at least 3 points last year. Play on Jacksonville State.

The Lions won't have the Detroit fans to support them. They're thousands of miles away on the West Coast. Last week was a fortunate matchup as they faced Tampa Bay, a team which was only in the playoffs because of the division it plays in. Now, they face the top team in the NFC.

The 49ers didn't play nearly their best against the Packer and they still won. They'll be better this week. Not having to travel will prove to be helpful. Now is also when the 49ers will benefit from their Wildcard Rd bye, a luxury which the Lions didn't have.

This is the best Detroit team in some time but the 49ers are better on both sides of the ball. San Francisco was third in points scored per game while Detroit finished fifth. The bigger difference is on the other side of the ball. The 49ers’ defense finished third in points allower per game while the Lions finished 23rd in that category.

They say that defense wins championships. Lay the points and expect that saying to ring true of the NFC Championship game on Sunday.

We've grown used to the Chiefs having a great offense and Patrick Mahomes working magic in the playoffs. It's hard to think otherwise. The Chiefs offense isn't great right now though. And Mahomes has never had to play a road playoff game. He's played in 3 Super Bowls but that's not a true road environment. Mahome's other 12 playoff games have all come at home. Now, he plays in cold, hostile Buffalo where he'll go up against some of the most passionate fans in the league and be opposed by a Bills teams which is playing its best football.

After a sluggish start, Buffalo has been winning for weeks. This team is ready to get the KC monkey off its back. Twice, the Chiefs have eliminated them from the playoffs. The Bills beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the regular season to earn the right to play this game here. At home, the Bills are are better on both sides of the ball They're 8-1 here, outscoring teams by a 29.7 to 15 average score. The Chiefs' regular season issues will rear their heads and the Bills will win and cover on Sunday night.

This is a great storyline as it pits Jared Goff against Matthew Stafford. You probably know that those two quarterbacks were traded for each other. Stafford played many years in Detroit. Goff played several for the Rams. Both QBs are still extremely capable. Both did well to guide their teams this far. The Lions have some important other advantages.

It stars with playing at home. With Michigan having just won the championship and the Lions favored to win this one, fans in Detroit are in a frenzy. They will play a role. The Lions won 6 of 8 games here, covering 5. The Rams were a modest 5-4 on the road.

Goff has better weapons than Stafford. The Lions score more than 27 points a game. The Rams score less than 24. Both defenses allow roughly the same number of points overall but the Lions allow 21.6 per game at home compared to the Rams' 23.8 allowed on the road.

The projected high-scoring game favors the Lions. They are 11-2 ATS their last 13 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher, 6-1 ATS in home games wiht a total of 49.5 or higher. The Rams are just 3-6 ATS their last 9 when the total was set at 49.5 or higher. Lay the small number! ***WC GOY***

Two undefeated teams, playing for the title. What could be better? For all the complaining, it ended up working out. As much as I love this Washington team, its magical run comes to an end on Janurary 8th.

The Huskies were able to dominate time of possession against Texas. That's not going to happen against Michigan. They were also able to throw for more than 400 yards. That's also not going to happen against the Wolverines.

Defense wins championships and Michigan's defense is the real deal. One of the best we've seen in recent years. The Wolverines held Alabama to less than 100 yards in the first half. Their 9.5 points allowed per game during the regular season was the best in the nation.

These teams met in 2021. The Huskies were able to move the ball through the air but the Wolverines dominated them on the ground. Michigan went on to win 31-10. A young Blake Corum carried the ball 21 times for 171 yards and 3 touchdowns. (Haskins also ran for 155 yards.) Now its Corum and Edwards instead of Corum and Haskins, Corum leading the charge. He'll have his way with Washington and carry Michigan to the title.

Miami wasn't good last week. That will cause a lot of people to stay away or to back Buffalo. When handicapping the NFL, its important to learn from the previous week but its also important to be able to "wash away" recency bias. Many bettors base too much of their handicapping on what they just saw, forgetting about what may been going on all season.

Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel provided some perspective: "If we had said that after Week 4 that we're going to play this Buffalo team again, and it will be the last game of the season for the division crown, I think everyone would have accepted that. That's some perspective that I talked to the team about. Their eyes were laser focused -- they will be eager to wash away this past game. The only way you can do that is to prepare for the next one."

Miami was on the road for the bad Baltimore loss and for the previous loss to Buffalo. The Dolphins are now at home where they are 7-1 on the season. The Bills are also 7-1 at home but they're only 3-4 on the road.

They haven't fared well in the series for years but the Dolphins did win 21-19 the last game played at Miami. In what will likely be another close game, homefield will again make the difference. Grab the points! ***GAME OF MONTH***

When you get this far, it goes without saying that all the teams are excellent. Texas was 12-1. Washington was 13-0. Texas lost against Oklahoma but beat Alabama. Washington beat Oregon (twice) and USC.

I backed Texas in its last game, a blowout of Texas Tech. The Huskies are not the Red Raiders. The Longhorns average 36.2 points a game. The Huskies can score with anyone though. They average 37.7.

The biggest reason that the Longhorns are favored is that they are considered to have a superior defense. Maybe so. But the Huskies are better on that side of the ball than the public realizes. They held 3 opponent to 10 or less. If they couldn't stop a team, the Huskies just outscored them.

Another reason that the Longhorns are favored is that Washington won a lot of close games. The Huskies won 4 games by 3 points or less. Each of their last 9 games was decided by 10 or less. All those narrow margins give people the impression that the Huskies were lucky to win some of those. I like that they won all those close games though. This team finds a way to get it done!

There's also the perception, by many, that the Big 12 is superior to the Pac-12. I disagree. The Pac-12 was stronger this season than people think. There were a lot of good teams and Washington beat every one of them which it faced.

The Longhorns are 1-3 ATS their last 4 tries when playing with 2 or more week's rest. Off their bye this season, they won by only 7 when listed as a 24 point favorite. The Huskies, who beat Oregon when off their bye, are 7-3 ATS their last 10 non-conference games. This game will likely be very close and I'm taking the points. ***BOWL GOY***

The Ravens looked pretty convincing against the 49ers but the Dolphins are a different type of team. Miami averages more than 30 points a game and the defense has gotten progressively stronger.

Baltimore scores a lot but Miami scores more. Last season, the Ravens scored 38 against the Dolphins and it still wasn't enough. Miami won 42-38.

The Ravens are off that big statement win on National TV. That was on Monday night on the West Coast. They're now traveling back across the country to play an early game on a short week.

The Dolphins have something to prove and Baltimore linebacker Queen added fuel to the fire by talking about "teams being cute and playing basketball on grass."

The Dolphins have won 5 of their last 6 and the only loss came by 1. They will prove to the world that they aren't soft on Sunday. ***AFC GOY***

Off consecutive losses, the Cowboys really need this one. They are still fighting the Eagles for first place in the NFC East. The Lions do still want a first round bye but they are off consecutive wins and have already locked up first place in the division. In my estimation, this game is more important to the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home. They pounded the Eagles 33-13 last game here. They are outscoring teams 39.9 to 15.4 in games here. I played against them in the only game that they didn't cover here but the Cowboys are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread in their 7 home games.

Prescott has 20 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions in the games here, completing 74% of his passed. Coach McCarthy said this of the Cowboys' homefield advantage: "We've been able to get into a rhythm early and be able to just keep your foot on the gas. The crowds have been great."

Detroit gets a reality check and Dallas stays perfect at home. ***NFC GOM***

The Titans are dealing with injuries but they are still giving everything they've got. Seattle, which has its own injury problems, kept its hopes alive with a big win last week but that was by 3 points on the final play. The Seahawks had lost their previous 3 and are now playing on a short week. They are 2-5 on the road. The Titans are 4-2 at home. Since a 7-point win to close out November, the Titans have seen all 3 of their games decided by 3 or less. The Titans won the last meeting by 3 points, in OT. They are 15-6-4 against the spread their last 25 against AFC West opposition. This will likely be another close one. Grab the points.

Georgia Tech is happy just to be here and is looking to build on next year. The last time that the Yellow Jackets were in a bowl was 2018 and they got blown out. Coach Key said: "What I want to do is to be able to get as many opportunities as we can early on to keep our guys in shape to hone their skills so we haven't lost what we've been able to build through the season. Get guys a lot of situational football, a lot of third downs, red area, two-minute, four-minute-type situations." UCF is here to win. Senior quarterback John Rhys Plumlee returned from injury down the stretch and that coincided with the Knights' hot November. This will mark their 3rd Gasparilla Bowl win in five seasons. So, they're very familiar. We saw the Bulls thrive in their home state yesterday and this venue should also favor the team from Florida. UCF dominated GT in 2022 and also in 2020. The Jackets have improved but not enough. They've struggled outside of their conference with 3 wins in their last 12 tries. Lay the points! ***BOWL GOM***

Give me the points with Jacksonville. The Ravens are strong but Jacksonville plays best against good teams. The Jaguars are 5-2 against the spread against winning teams. It helps their cause against the Ravens that the Jaguars are the 4th best team in the NFL at stopping the run. They allow only 92.2 yards on the ground, per game. The offense is in good hands with an improving Trevor Lawrence. The Jax QB said this: "It's feeling better. Thankfully, I made out of the game pretty clean. I didn't re-aggravate it anymore. I'm just trying to keep getting better every day. Hopefully it feels even better this week. I was able to move around decent on Sunday, so that was positive." The Jaguars beat the Ravens by 1 point last year. That was an exciting 28-27 victory. This will be another close one and I look for the Jaguars to again get it done. ***SNF GOY**

Miami may be the flavor of the month but this is far too many points. The Titans manhandled this Miami team last season. Henry didn't even play and they still rushed for 198 yards. The Titans sacked Tua 4 times. He threw an interception and fumbled 3 times. Granted, that was in cold, rainy Nashville and this will be in much warmer Miami. The point remains that Tennessee matched up very well with Miami les than a year ago. This season, six of the Titans' 8 losses came by 14 or less. Vrabel's is liked and respected by the Titan players. They are well aware that is job could be in jeopardy. This is their chance to go out and play hard for him under the National spotlight, going all out for their first road win. This game will be close and I'm grabbing the points. ***MNF GOY***

I had a big win with Philadelphia in the first meeting. I remember that game well. So do the Cowboys, who will be thinking payback when they host the hated Eagles on Sunday night. Their loss at Philadelphia continued a disturbing trend for Dallas of losing against top teams. The Cowboys will be determined to change that and make things right. They want to prove to themselves and to the world that they don't just beat the bad teams. The setup is perfect. The Cowboys have had had some extra time to rest up and prepare, due to their Thanksgiving game. The Eagles just got a reality check out from the 49ers. Before that, they'd taken on the Bills and Chiefs. All those games against elite teams are going to take a toll. Dallas outscores teams by an average of 14 points. The Eagles outscore teams by an average of 3 points. Dallas is undefeated at home this season and is 7-2 against the spread last 9 as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Give me the Cowboys. ***Revenge GOY***

Off a loss to Arizona, the Steelers are 3-3 over their last 6 games. All 3 of their wins came by 6 points or less. The Patriots lost by 14 at Miami in October. That's the only of their past 7 games which was decided by more than 6 points. Every other game has been ultra-close. The defense has allowed 10 points or less in 3 straight. That makes beating the Patriots by more than 6 points very difficult. The Patriots may score the fewest points but the Steelers aren't far behind. They average only 16 a game. A bad Steeler offense against a great New England defense. With the Steelers 0-5 against the spread the past 5 times that they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7, I'm happy to take the points. ***TNF GOM***

The Bengals struggled in Browning's first start. He's gotten his feet wet now and will be better from the experience. He also expects to have Tee Higgins back, a luxury he didn't have against Baltimore. Browning, who did complete 19 of 26 passes for 227 yards against the Ravens, said this of Higgins: "Tee's one of the top receivers in the NFL. I don't think can really put into words how important he is to this offense ... there's just something that Tee brings the table being as big, as fast and having the experience he does, where it's always nice to have him and Ja'Marr on the outside." The Bengals are 15-7 against the spread their last 22 as underdogs. The Jaguars won by 3 last game and have only won one of their last 5 games by more than 10. Grab the points! **NFL GOW**

These teams met in October, at Indianapolis. The Colts won. That's not surprising given that the Titans are 0-6 on the road. The Titans are an entirely different team here at home though. They're 4-1 in games at Tennessee. They have outscored teams by an average of 24.8 to 15 here. They are 4-1 against the spread the last 5 tries as a home underdog of 3 or less. The Colts recent wins have been against bad teams. They are 5-11 against the spread in divisional play their last 16. Give me Tennessee at home! **AFC South GOY**

The Cowboys have been clobbering bad teams. The Seahawks aren't a bad team though and Dallas has far more trouble with better teams. Dallas is only 4-8 against the spread last 12 against winning teams. The Cowboys also have a very big game upcoming against the Eagles next week. Off their Thanksgiving Day romp and looking ahead to that game, Seattle could be overlooked. Seattle is 7-3 against the spread last 10 tries after losing 2 or more games in a row. Grab the points! ***NFC GOM***

Ridder is back and he will have learned from his time on the sideline. The Atlanta QB commented: "You get a different perspective of not only yourself but the offense as a whole. There are a lot of things where I'd like to have gone back and done better. I could've protected the ball better, but there are a lot of (instances) where I could've done things to not be in those situations, whether it's footwork or your reads or your progressions." The Falcons are 3-1 at home this season with Ridder starting. Last season's games were both decided by 3 or less and the game here at Atlanta was decided by a single point. The Saints are only 7-15-1 against the spread their last 23 as favorites, 2-5-1 as road favorites of a field goal or less. Falcons are already 2-0 within the division. Homefield will make the difference. ***NFC South GOM***

Baylor is playing for pride. Its the Bears' last game and it means a lot. West Virginia is already guaranteed a bowl. Baylor coach Dave Aranda knows that the Bears and their fans can really use a victory: "For the team, it would be a relief. It would be validation for working hard. When anything negative happens, you fight the attachment to all the negative things of the past. We're fighting that fight right now, and to get a win would be a victory over that." The Mountaineers have been road favorites four times the last few seasons. They were 1-3 against the spread. They were road favorites once this season and lost outright at Houston. Grab the points and look for the Bears to bring it! ***Big 12 GOM***

Texas needs to take care of business. No leaving anything up to anyone else. The Longhorns will punctuate a strong regular season with a statement blowout. They lost at Lubbock in Overtime last year and will get revenge from that game. Red Raiders are 2-5 against the spread last 7 tries on the road with total of 49.5 to 56. Texas is 3-0-1 against the spread last four tries at home with a total of 49.5 to 56. Longhorns are also 4-2 against the spread last six as home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points, 3-1 in that role this season. Texas wins big! **REVENGE GOW**

Getting extra value with the Jets due to the QB situation. The reality is that the QB change should only help. Wilson was terrible! Boyle has something to prove. The Jets defense is better than Miami's defense. The Jets are 6-3 against the spread the last 9 times that they were off a division loss. Last meeting was decided by 5 points. Three of last 4 meetings all decided by 7 or less and the other was a big NY win. Grab the points! **AFC EAST GOW**

The Rams have their number but the Seahawks will bounce back with a big effort on Thanksgiving! Seattle has won 8 of the past 10 home meetings against San Francisco. The two losses came by an average of 6.5 points. Pete Carroll likes Geno Smith's chances of starting: “"They’re taking a look at it but they pretty much know what’s going on there. It’s just see how soon it settles down. Like I said, it’s a good sign that he’s functional so that’s not the issue, so it’s just how sore he is. He’ll make it back." SF, which has a revenge game against the Eagles on deck, is 3-2 on the road. Seattle is 4-1 at home. The 49ers might fare better in the Dec. 10th rematch but Seattle is the right way to go on Thursday. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving!

Detroit fans have been waiting for a long time for this. A Thanksgiving Day game where they've got a good team and where they can count on a big win. That day is here! The Lions are the real deal. The Packers are not. I've had this opinion from Day 1. This is what I said prior to Detroit's 34-20 win at Lambeau in September:

Its early but this game will likely go a long way in ultimately determining the division champion. After years of suffering, Detroit and its fans desperately want this. You can't always get what you want but in this case, the Detroit faithful will finally be rewarded. The Lions have been stockpiling talent over the years and now have a better team than the Packers. That's why they're small favorites, despite the game being played at Lambeau. You may be surprised to learn that the Lions are 10-2 ATS their last 12 divisional games. They're also 3-0 ATS their past three Thursday night games. The Lions, who already won at Arrowhead, have arguably faced stiffer competition than the Packers. They'll find a way to win this game and to seize early control of the division. ***NFC North GOY

Now the Lions get to complete the sweep in front of the entire country. Their time has come. They are 16-6 against the spread their last 22 home games. They had a 211-27 edge in rushing yards in the first meeting! As they were in September, they will be too much for the Packers to handle! ***NFC North GOM

Last week, I won with Eastern Michigan Over the total, an easy 30-27 final score against Akron. This week, I will look to fade Eastern Michigan on the road. The Eagles are only 2-4 against the spread as underdogs. Eastern Michigan, 5-1 at home but 0-5 on the road, gets outscored by an average of 28 to 13 in away games. The Bulls beat this team 50-31 last year. The Eagles want that 6th win but they won't get it. The Bulls will show they've still got some pride and close out their season with a big win. ***MAC GOW***

The Chiefs won when it really counted but the Eagles will exact a little revenge tonight. The Chiefs are only scoring 23.1 points a game this season. The Eagles score 28. The Eagles have only lost once all season. They were winning that game entering the 4th quarter and had a big edge in yards and first downs. The Chiefs have two losses and they've had a few close wins. Remember, the Eagles were ahead 27-21 entering the 4th quarter in the Super Bowl. They've been waiting for this day. They're 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times they were off a division win. This night will belong to them! ***MNF GOM***

The Bills really shot themselves in the foot last week. What were they even doing in that close a game in the first place? Rest assured, they will emerge stronger from the experience. The Bills will be a team on a mission this week. Nobody will get in their way. Not the stumbling Jets, who scored 18 combined points in losing their last 2 games. The Jets average 16 points a game, the Bills average more than 26. The Jets are 1-4 against the spread (0-5 straight-up) in five tries when the total was between 35.5 to 42. The Bills are 5-2-1 against the spread (7-1 straight up) last 8 when up against an opponent with a losing record in the second half of the season. This will not be a friendly environment! Bills win big!

This game is bigger for the Red Wolves than it is the Bobcats. Texas State is already bowl eligible, for the first time in nine seasons. With a win on Saturday afternoon, Arkansas State will become bowl eligible for the first time in four seasons. Doing so against a Texas State team which lately always seems to narrowly defeat them will be extra sweet. The Red Wolves have been playing their best football the past few weeks. They lost at South Alabama last week. With an advantage in first downs, they covered the spread in that game. Before that, they'd won 2 games in a row by 10 and 20 points. The last 3 meetings have all been by 3 or less., each by Texas State. Arkansas State led 10-3 going into the 4th quarter last year but found a way to close. Not this year. It's payback time! ***Revenge GOY***

It would have been the hottest ticket in town if these teams faced each other earlier in the season. Colorado was the talk of the league and Washington State was also red hot. Everything changed. Both teams got brought down to size. Both teams will still really want this one though. Each is anxious to get back on track. That will make for a good game. Colorado still gets the hype because of Sanders. The Cougars are at home though and are the superior team. WSU quarterback Cameron Ward took some responsibility for last week's loss after he fumbled three times and had two returned for TDS. (He also threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns.) "I feel like I've grown in ball security, especially these two years once I first got here to Washington State but it showed up again that it's something that I gotta continuously work on. Any time you put your team in a situation like I did, it's hard to fight out of, and we did. We did end up doing that. But we didn't execute enough plays as a whole to win this game." Colorado is only 2-13 its last 15 road games. Ward will clean up the fumbles tonight and he will lead his team to a win and cover! ***pac 12 GOW***

Pittsburgh being favored in game tells us a lot. The Panthers have been bad all season. Pittsburgh coach Pat Narduzzi will have his worst year. So, what are the Panthers doing favored? Boston College is a fraud, that's why! The Eagles were exposed last week. They got outgained by a 600 to 262 yardage mark! That was against Virginia Tech - not a team like Georgia or Michican. Eagles are 3-9 against the spread last 12 times they were off a conf. loss. Narduzzi is 7-3 against the spread last 10 in November. Panthers will play their best game and salvage some price. ***ACC GOM***

If you look at the points scored and allowed, the overall numbers are pretty close. Both teams score the same amount of points. The Chargers allow about 1 more point per game. Detroit does come in fresh, as last week was a bye. The Chargers are playing their best football now though and the Lions are playing thousands of miles away from home. They were obliterated their last road game. The Charger defense has especially improved of late. They will keep rolling and pull off the upset this afternoon! ***Non-Conf GOM

Air Force just blew its undefeated season with a 23-3 loss to Army last week. Off that disappointing result and now having traveled thousands of miles, it will be hard to get up for this game. Having a big game against UNLV up next makes things even more challenging. The Warriors are off a 27-14 win and feeling better about themselves. Warriors are now 6-2-1 against the spread their last nine November games. They will provide a tough test for the Falcons tonight. ***MWC GOW

The line has climbed and we're getting a lot of points with a very competitive North Texas team. Since a bad loss back in Week 1, before they really got their feet on the ground, the Mean Green have been in every game. Since that Week 1 loss, their other 5 losses have all come by 8 points or less. They could easily have won some of those and are better than their record indicates. After some big wins, the Mustangs had trouble with Rice last game, winning by only 5. The Mean Green aren't as good as SMU on defense. They do score 34.8 points a game though and have shown that they can keep up with just about anyone. They're 12-5 against the spread their last 17 road games and that includes a 2-0 against the spread record as road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points. Overall, they are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 tries as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points. Better yet, the Mean Green are 8-1 against the spread the past 9 times that they were off a conference loss. With a big game at Memphis on deck, SMU could be looking ahead. Give me the points! ***AAC GOY

I am grabbing the points with Central Michigan. The Chippewas scored 37 points to beat Northern Illinois in their last game. They've won four of their last 6. The Broncos are also off a win. Each of their previous wins has been followed by a bad loss and a 3-game losing streak. Western Michigan is bad defensively. The Broncos allow 32.8 points a game. That's tied with Kent State for the most points allowed per game in the MAC. The Chippewas won 42-30 the last time they played here. They're 6-2 against the spread their last 8 games in November and 10-4 against the spread the last 14 times that they were underdogs. They still need to win to become bowl eligible but Western Michigan realistically gave up dreaming about a bowl weeks ago. Go CMU! ***mac GOY

Big battle in Philadelphia! This is a heated rivalry and both teams come in hot. The Eagles have the significant advantage of playing at home. They're 3-0 here. Dallas is 2-2 on the road. The home team won both meetings last year. Cowboys by 6 at Dallas. Eagles by 9 at Philadelphia. The Cowboys are good at beating on the weak and mediocre teams. The last time they played a team currently with a winning record, they got destroyed! Heck, this team even lost by 12 at Arizona! The Eagles lost a close one against a really good Jets defense but otherwise have had no such slip-ups. Last time they took on a top level team, they throttled Miami. This season's seven wins have come by an average of more than eight points. Six of the wins were by 5 or more points and all 6 came by at least a field goal. Lay the points with the Eagles! ***nfc east goy

The Bruins have been waiting for this game as they have a score to settle. Last year, the Wildcats came to Pasadena and scored a major upset. The Bruins were ranked #12 at the time and the loss effectively eliminated any chance that they might make the College Playoff. This year's Bruins are arguably better on both sides of the ball. Arizona has a reasonably good defense but UCLA's defense is on another level. The Wildcats allow 21 points a game. The Bruins allow 15 points a game. Arizona allows 342.1 yards a game. UCLA allows an average of only 277 yards a game! On offense, UCLA averages 467.4 yards a game. Arizona averages 441.4 yards. The Bruins are a dominant 7-1 against the spread the past eight times that they were listed as road favorites. Their superior defense will be the difference. ***pac 12 goy

The Cowboys are an entirely different team at home than they are on the road. They've won all five at home but lost all three on the road. Those road games came at Boise, Air Force and Texas. None of those are easy places to win. Off consecutive road games, the Cowboys will be thrilled to be back home! They've beaten some decent teams here, including Texas Tech, App State and Fresno State. They will have no trouble disposing of a weak CSU club. I did back the Rams against UNLV but they've followed that up by getting crushed. They won't be ready for this difficult venue! The Cowboys won by 14 points last time they hosted CSU and by 10 before that. They win big again tonight! ***mwc gom

Much of the talk will focus on the quarterbacks. That's obviously important. Things like the Steelers getting back Cameron Heyward are also very important but will be mostly glossed over. He makes their run defense better. TJ Watt said this: "He's a difference-maker. He really is. He's been doing it for a long time. A guy that's played in this matchup more than a few times himself, and anytime you can plug in a player like him, it's going to make a difference, no matter what." Back to the QB's. The Titans' rookie had a big debut but he will find things more difficult on a short week, on the road, at Pittsburgh. The Titans are only 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games against teams from the AFC North. The Steelers are 13-6-1 against the spread the past 20 times that the played with a line ranging from +3 to -3. The Steelers are also 4-0 their last four against against the Titans. They continue their Tennessee dominance tonight! ***tnf goy

This was a game which South Alabama had circled as soon as the schedule game out. The Trojans have owned the "Battle Of The Belt" rivalry for five years and the Jaguars are determined to put an end to that. This is an experience South Alabama team. They aren't where they want to be but a win here will go a long way. Don't forget that they went on the road and won 33-7 at Oklahoma State. The Jaguars score 33.5 points a game. The Trojans score 27.1. The Trojans are 0-2 against the spread when playing a home game with a total in the 42.5-49 point range. They are only 7-14 against the spread their last 21 in that situation. Last year's game was close the whole way. Give me the points! ***sun belt gom

On a losing streak, the Bulldogs are exactly who the Tigers want to see. Auburn has dominated the Mississippi State in games here. Last time here, the Tigers won by 9. The previous game here, the Tigers won by 23. The game before that, the Tigers won by 39. Before that, they won by 8. The common theme is Auburn home wins of greater than a touchdown. Tigers are 18-12 against the spread the last 30x they were home favorites of 3.5 to 7 points. Bulldogs pulled off an upset last week but are still only 1-3 ATS as underdogs. Playing back-to-back road games for the first time this season will showcase their weaknesses. Last week's scores might say otherwise but the Tigers boast the better defense. They'll win this game by more than a touchdown. *SEC GOY

Really like that the division-leading Lions got crushed yesterday. Combine that with the Packer loss and the Vikings should have a little boost. A win tonight now has them with the second most wins in the division and with the Lions looking vulnerable. San Francisco is good but not invincible. The 49'ers are off a tough loss. They're dealing wih the injuries and playing their second straight on the road. The Vikings are off a win, their second in three games. The lone loss came by a touchdown against the Chiefs. Since a bad New Year's Day loss at Lambeau, the Vikings have played eight games. None of those eight games resulted in a loss of more than 7 points. One big Minnesota win and another Minnesota win by eight points. The other six were all decided by seven or less. Give me the points.

The wins haven't come but the Broncos have shown signs of life. My feeling is that they will break through with a victory this afternoon. The Packers are off back-to-back losses and have dropped three of four. The only win was by a single point. Green Bay coach La Fleur summed it up: "It's just a lot of inconsistent play. It's been very choppy. We haven't been able to get into a consistent rhythm." Wilson has an 0-4 record (54.3 QB rating) at Lambeau but he's 3-0 with a 107.6 QB rating against the Packers at home. Broncos win. *Non-Conf GOW

The Atlanta offense is showing real signs of life and we can expect Desmond Ridder to pick up his first road win. The result was disappointing but the Falcons dominated time of possession and racked up more than 400 yards against Washington. They had a 25-12 edge in first downs and outgained the Commanders 402-193! They also statistically dominated Houston the previous game. My feeling is that Atlanta is a team on the rise and that Tampa is likely going the other way. The Bucs got dominated last game and their only home win was against the Bears. Tampa is 2-5-1 ATS its last eight as a home favorite of a field goal or less. Atlanta is 3-1 ATS its last four as a road underdog of a field goal or less. Grab the points. *NFC South GOY

The Rebels have been lining the pockets of bettors this season. That comes to an end Saturday. UNLV's ATS success has led to us getting extra line value with Colorado State. The Rams have beaten UNLV four straight times. They're 17-3 the past 20 meetings. Two of those three Rebel wins were by only a field goal. Not only is this always a difficult opponent for the Rebels but this is also a challenging scheduling spot. They just beat instate rival Nevada and they've got a big showdown against Fresno State up next. That game is a big deal due to both teams having such strong records. The Rams have won 3 of 4 and just beat Boise last game. Rebels 3-6-1 ATS last 10 as a home fav in the -7.5 to -10 range. Give me the points. *MWC GOY

I wasn't at all surprised that the Bengals beat Arizona last week. It was a break-out game for Burrow, Chase and the Bengal offense. On the other side, the defense also elevated its play. Cincinnati will carry that confidence into Sunday afternoon's home game against Seattle. The Seahawks are off a bye. That's not always helpful! The Seahawks are 0-2 ATS their last 2 off a bye. Long-term? They're 12-23 ATS with a push, the last 36 times they were off a bye. Even off the bye, the Hawks aren't entirely healthy. The Bengals have won 15 of their last 21 home games and we don't have to worry about laying a big number. Arizona was a losing team but the Bengals are also 16-4 straight-up and 15-5 against the spread against winning teams. They''ll get back to .500 and add to those stats Sunday afternoon. *NFL GOY

Grabbing points with the Bruins. The Beavers are a good team and I know they've got a great home record. UCLA remains under-rated though. The Beavers allow 19.7 points each game. OSU has given up 38 or more points in two of their last three games.The Bruins only allow 12.2. No team has scored more than 17 against them. That makes it difficult to beat the Bruins by more than a field goal. Grab the points with the better defense! *Pac 12 GOM