Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-03-24 | Clippers +8 v. Mavs | Top | 101-114 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
Give me all those points with the Los Angeles Clippers! Down 3-2 in the series, the Clippers are in a must win situation. When previously trailing in the series, they responded with an outright 116-111 road win in Game 4. Though its perhaps not quite as close as the NY/Philly series, most of these games have also been extremely close. Including that 5-point win by the Clippers in Game 4, we've see 3 of the 5 games in this series decided by 5 points or less. Bear in mind that LA is 27-16 on the road and that Dallas is 26-17 at home. The Mavericks only outscore teams by an average of 3.6 points here. The Clippers have come back from down 3-2 to the Mavericks before and still believe that they can do it again. Harden will be better than he was in Game 5 and they will keep this one close the whole way. An outright upset is entirely possible. Grab the points! |
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05-02-24 | Bucks v. Pacers -8.5 | Top | 98-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Bucks prolonged the inevitable in Game 5 but this series ends tonight. Milwaukee hasn't been quite right all season. The mid-season coaching change didn't exactly fix things. No matter who suits up tonight, the Bucks are far from healthy. The Pacers have been strong all season. They are ready to take the next step. The Bucks are 5-11 versus the spread the last 16 times that they were off an upset win as an underdogs. The Pacers are 13-5 versus the spread off an upset loss as a favorite. The Pacers are also 26-13 ATS versus teams which 116+ points/game. Haliburton said: "We've just got to understand that they're a team that's on the brink of their season being done ... we've just got to be better top to bottom." Knowing that they want nothing to do with a Game 7, the Pacers will be better from top to bottom and they will blow the Bucks out of the building! |
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04-28-24 | Knicks +5 v. 76ers | Top | 97-92 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
It was a gutsy performance by Embiid and the 76ers to get back in the series with a big win last game. Doing it again will be much harder. Embiid still is far from healthy. The Knicks are 10-6 versus the spread after a loss of 10 points or more, 12 of those were outright victories. On the season, the Knicks were 22-10 straight up and 21-11 versus the spread, when off a loss. This NY team rarely plays consecutive bad games. You saw what happened in the 2nd game at MSG. It was a wild final 30 seconds of a game decided on the final play. This 2nd game at Philadelphia may also be decided at the buzzer. Grab the points! |
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04-20-24 | Suns v. Wolves -1.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show |
The Suns soundly beat the Timberwolves to close out the regular season. When it really matters, on April 20th, we will see a much different result. The Suns are 9-17 versus the spread after a win by 10 points or more. The Timberwolves are a perfect 10-0 their last 10 tries, both straight up and against the spread, when playing with revenge from a home loss. Minnesota is also 9-4 ATS And 11-3 SU after an upset loss. Minnesota allows the fewest points in the entire NBA. The Wolves were 30-11 at home and only allowed 103.7 points a game here. Lay the small number! |
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04-14-24 | Bucks v. Magic -4.5 | Top | 88-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
This is the biggest game of the season for Orlando. The Magic have their sights set on a top 6 position which would mean avoiding the play-in round. A win over the Bucks gets them there. "We control our destiny in this situation," said Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley, "so the way in which we have to play, the focus we have to have, and the attention to detail in how we start games and how we finish games is going to be very important." "We just need one win and we're good," Magic forward Franz Wagner said. "One more game and we have to focus on that one and get a win." The Bucks are still without Giannis Antetokounmpo and have lost 7 of their last 10 games. A win gets them the #2 seed but they don't seem overly concerned about it. "You're going to play somebody good in the playoffs no matter what. There is no easy path. We learned that in the past before -- winning it and also losing it. The Magic are 25-11 versus the spread, when favored. They've had a great season and they will finish it strong. Lay the points! |
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04-12-24 | Suns v. Kings +5.5 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
This is a lot of points to be giving a desperate home underdog. The Kings are playing with 0 days rest but the last time that they did that, they lost by only 1 point at Boston. This is a Sacramento team which badly needs to get on track before its too late. They will fight with everything they've got. The Suns are 8-9 in division games, the Kings are 10-6. The Kings are 9-4 versus the spread after allowing 130 points or more. The Suns are 9-16-1 versus the spread off a win by 10 points or more. The Suns are also 8-20 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game. The Kings are 17-10 ATS as underdogs. Grab the points! **Pacific Div. GOM** |
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04-07-24 | Rockets +8.5 v. Mavs | Top | 136-147 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The Houston Rockets can't afford any losses. The Rockets are four games behind the Warriors with only five remaining in the regular season. That obviously doesn't give them much of a chance. They have fought all year though and they are going to continue to battle until the bitter end. Rockets coach Ime Udoka: "Just finishing on the right step, on the right foot and playing the right way." Dallas isn't entirely healthy and wants to make sure it it for the playoffs. Doncic missed the Mavericks last game and is questionable. So is Kleber. Those guys would play if this was a playoff game but they may not for this one. Rookie sensation Lively is out. Green remains out. The Rockets are 7-3 versus the spread after 3 or more consecutive losses. Grab the points! **Southwest GOY** |
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04-04-24 | Warriors v. Rockets +4.5 | Top | 133-110 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The Rockets have many factors in their favor tonight. They are playing with Double-Revenge with the Warriors having won both of this season's previous meetings. Golden State has been strong on the road this season but the Rockets are even better at home. The Warriors need wins but the Rockets need them even more! The Warriors play at Dallas tomorrow night. Its a really big game and a rematch from Tuesday. If there is a game to look ahead to, its a game against Luca Doncic and the Mavericks! The Rockets have been underestimated all year. They are 13-7 versus the spread as home underdogs and they won 11 of those game outright. They are 12-3 ATS against Pacific Division teams and they will have their revenge on Thursday night! |
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03-26-24 | Mavs +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 132-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
If you pay attention to how teams fare in certain situations, you'll understand why this the case of the wrong team being favored. Both teams are off a victory last night. That works in favor of Dallas. The Mavericks are 8-3 versus the spread their last 11 tries, when playing with 0 days rest. The Kings are only 4-8 ATS when doing so. The Kings played great defense last night. The problem is that they are only 2-9 ATS their last 11 tries, after allowing 105 points or less. The Mavericks are 29-18-1 ATS (30-18 straight up) when revenging a home loss, 12-5 ATS their last 17. The Kings won twice at Dallas but the Mavericks get them back tonight! |
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03-25-24 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -15.5 | Top | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
This is as essentially as big a mismatch as it gets in the NBA. The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions. They need to keep winning and they dominate teams at home. The Memphis Grizzlies are playing for nothing. This is a team which is beleaguered by injuries. The last time that these teams faced each other, the Nuggets won by 37 points. The Nuggets have won 41 of 50 meetings here and many of them have been blowouts. The last 5 Denver home wins over Memphis have all been by at least 13 points. With the Grizzlies only 4-7 versus the spread their last 11 tries with 2 days rest, this one will see the Nuggets win by at least 20! **WESTERN CONF GOM** |
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03-19-24 | Nuggets v. Wolves +7.5 | Top | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
Give me the points with Timberwolves! The situation is that the Nuggets are off a buzzer beater loss on Sunday and the Timberwolves are off a comeback win last night. Because of the lack of rest, the Nuggets are laying a hefty number as a road favorite. Too hefty! If we look at Minnesota's 10 games with 0 days rest we find a 7-3 straight up record. Closer examination reveals that all 3 losses came on the road, the last 2 both by single-digits. The Timberwolves are 4-0 straight up when playing a home game after playing the previous day. Twice they've played a home game after playing an away game and they won those games by an average of 118-107. On the season, the Timberwolves have a better home record than Denver does a road record. Give the me points! *Northwest GOW |
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03-18-24 | Hawks v. Lakers -8.5 | Top | 105-136 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
I wasn't surprised that the Hawks showed up for last night's game. I don't believe that they'll be able to do it two nights in row though. Atlanta is 4-7 versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. When playing the 2nd of back-to-back road games, the Hawks are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread. They lost those 2 games by an average score of 120-111. Overall, the Hawks are only 12-19 ATS as underdogs. They are really bad when they are off an upset victory. In that situation, they've gone 10-27 ATS their last 37 tries, 3-7 ATS this season. The Lakers lost at Atlanta in January but they smashed the Hawks by 16 the last meeting here. Another big win coming up tonight! |
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03-06-24 | Thunder -13 v. Blazers | Top | 128-120 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Off three straight road games, Portland returns to the Pacific Northwest. Playing at home is not an advantage for the Trail Blazers. They are 10-18-1 versus the spread here. The Trail Blazers are also 16-31-1 versus the spread, after playing 3 consecutive road games. The Thunder average 120.9 points per game. The Trail Blazers average only 107.6. When matched up against low-scoring teams like Portand, the Thunder tend to dominate. They are 31-9-1 versus the spread their last 41 versus poor offensive teams - those. scoring |
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02-26-24 | Heat +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 121-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
I had the Kings last night. Great game by them. They went to LA and hammered the Clippers, a hated division rival. That puts them in a difficult position tonight. They are 3-5 versus the spread when playing with 0 days rest. They are also 3-5 versus the spread when off an upset win as an underdog. The Heat are playing their best basketball and they come in fresh and well-rested. They are 8-1 versus the spread since end of January, 7 of those wins coming outright. That streak began with a 9 point win over Sacramento. Last season's games were both close, decided by 4 and 6 points. With the schedule in their favor, grab the points with the red hot Miami Heat. |
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02-25-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 123-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Give me the points with Sacramento in this important Pacific Division battle. The Clippers won both this season's meetings but both of those were in 2023. The Kings have been playing well on the road since losing here earlier and they are 44-25-1 versus the spread their last 70 tries in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 230. The Clippers are 1-5 versus the spread their last 6 games. Their last 4 wins have all been by 6 or less. The Kings are off consecutive wins and their alst loss was by only 5. This game is also likely going to be decided late. Grab the points. **PACIFIC DIV GOM** |
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02-09-24 | Hornets v. Bucks -14 | Top | 84-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The Milwaukee Bucks played last night but that won't save the Charlotte Hornets from the beating which is coming their way. The Bucks won this season's earlier meeting by 31. Charlotte definitely hasn't gotten any better since then and is walking into a hornet's next. The coaching change to Doc Rivers hasn't paid immediate dividends for Milwaukee. The Bucks have now lost 3 straight games and 5 of their last 6. To be fair, 5 of those games were on the road and last night's was against a top level team from the West, the one with the most road wins of any team in the NBA. Clearly, this is a big drop in class. Charlotte lost at Detroit back on January 24th. That marked the first loss of the Hornets' current 9-game losing streak. Seven of their last 8 have come and the Hornets still couldn't get a win. The only road game over that time resulted in a 20-point loss. The Bucks next 2 games come against the defending NBA champions and the defending Eastern Conference champions, Denver and Miami. After that, the Bucks go on the road again. Rivers knows his team needs a big win and that he needs one, too. He will make sure that that the Bucks don't squander this opportunity. |
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02-08-24 | Bulls v. Grizzlies +6.5 | Top | 118-110 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The Bulls have the talent edge and are healthier. They've got plenty of their own injuries though and they're on the road. They're also the type of team that the Grizzlies can outwork. When they're at their best, the Bulls can be quite good. They beat Minnesota last game. That was at Chicago. They are only 9-15 on the road. They've got Orlando on deck and the Magic beat them twice. A look-ahead spot past Memphis. The Grizzlies are 20-5 against the spread their last 25 against teams from the Central. Grab the points. |
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02-04-24 | Blazers v. Nuggets -13.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The Trail Blazers hung with the champions for most of Friday's game but they will not be able to do do twice in a row. There was still some question about Jokic's health before Friday but the Denver big man dominated and is fully ready to go for this one. The Trail Blazers may have covered 48 hours ago but they are still 14-26-1 against the spread in divisional game the past 2 years. Portland was practically patting itself on the back for losing by only 12 on Friday. Denver will demonstrate its dominance from the opening tip tonight. The Nuggets are simply much stronger at both ends of the floor. A win of greater than 15 points is expected! |
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02-03-24 | Warriors +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 134-141 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
With both teams off a game last night, its important to know how these teams typically handle playing 2 games in 2 days. A quick look shows that Golden State tends to do a much better job than Atlanta. The Warriors are 5-3 against the spread, when playing 2 games in 2 days. Upon closer examination, we find that they are 3-0 ATS when playing a road game after also playing on the road on the previous day. The Hawks, 1-13 against the spread after a non-conference games, are 1-7 against the spread when playing 2 games in 2 days, 0-2 ATS when playing a home game after playing at home the previous day. The Warriors had an easier time last night than the Hawks. They are 6-1 ATS off a win by 10 points or more. Give me the points. |
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02-02-24 | Heat -8.5 v. Wizards | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Great setup for the Heat. After a long stretch of pointspread futility, they answered with a win and cover last game. Now they are off a win, had a day off and have tomorrow off. Better yet, they get to take on one of the weakest teams in the NBA. Though they've managed 6 wins on the road, the Wizards have the worst home record in basketball. They are 3-19 here, 7-15 against the pointspread. Visiting teams outscore them by an average of 10.6 points. This has been a profitable venue for Miami for years. The Heat are 37-16-2 against the spread their last 55 trips here. Expect them to win convincingly. |
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01-31-24 | Bulls v. Hornets +5 | Top | 117-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
Charlotte isn't a good team. Bad teams can still be profitable, if you back them at the right time. This is one of those times. Charlotte is rested and facing a mediocre Chicago team which lost against Toronto less than 24 hours ago. Chicago is only 3-5 straight up and against the pointspread when playing 2 games in 2 days. The last time that the Bulls were in that situation, the team that they were playing (San Antonio) was in the same boat. No advantage. The previous time, when up against a rested team, the Bulls lost by 16. They are 1-3 against the spread when playing a road game after playing at home the previous day. The win was the previously mentioned Spurs game. The Bulls have beaten them 3 times already this season. The Hornets want to avoid a sweep. Chicago is only 8-15 on the road. Grab the points! |
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01-29-24 | Magic v. Mavs -4 | Top | 129-131 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Nice win for the Magic over Phoenix yesterday. Defeating Dallas on the second leg of a 2 games in 2 nights situation will be much harder. The Mavericks have owned the Magic here for years and beat them by 9 here last season. The Magic have only 2 wins in 9 tries when playing 2 games in 2 days. They just lost by 27 points at Cleveland less than a week ago, after beating Miami the previous day. The time before in that situation, they lost by 12. Playing their 2nd game in 2 days, the Mavericks lost their last game. They since had yesterday off. Refreshed, they bounce back and handle their business, moving to 17-11 against the spread, as favorites. |
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01-23-24 | Knicks v. Nets +4 | Top | 108-103 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
Give me the points with the home underdog Nets! The Nets are 12-6-2 against the spread at home. The Knicks are 6-10 against the spread, when off a double-digit win. The Knicks have won 3 straight games. They are only 2-4 against the spread after winning their previous 3. The Nets lost to the Clippers to close out their trip. They pounded the Lakers before that though. Two of their last 3 losses have been by 2 points or less. The Knicks won here last month but the Nets have still won 4 of the past 5 meetings here. Nets get some payback by upsetting the Knicks on Tuesday! |
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01-22-24 | Grizzlies v. Raptors -7 | Top | 108-100 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
Both teams are off consecutive blowout losses. That's OK for Memphis but the Raptors demand better. Despite dealing away some of their top players with the hope of improving in the future, this organization still has pride and expects to compete. Currently extremely depleted, Memphis is a team they can handle. The Raptors beat the Grizzlies last month and now they catch them at home. The Raptors are much healthier than Memphis. The Grizzlies' injury list is long and filled with their best players. Take the injured Memphis players and put them up against the team which will take the court tonight and my money is on the injured players. The Raptors are 4-1, both straight up and against the spread, after scoring 100 or less. They will blow out the Grizzlies tonight. |
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01-19-24 | Hawks +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 109-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Miami won the first two games of the season series but the third meeting comes at the wrong time. The Hawks are showing some real signs of snapping out of their season long funk. They're off back to back victories and have won 3 of their last 5 games. The Heat just got destroyed by a short-handed Toronto team. In their previous game, they only beat Brooklyn by 1 point. Games here are usually quite close between these teams. Five of Atlanta's last 6 visits here have been decided by 10 or less. The only exception was an 11 point win by the Hawks. The Hawks average 120.9 points a game. Miami averages 111.5. The Heat are only 7-11-1 against the spread against losing teams. Grab the points. |
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01-17-24 | Bucks -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-135 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
The Cavaliers have built up their recent run against weak opposition. Their last 5 games have come against Washington, (twice) San Antonio, Brooklyn and Chicago. The Wizards and Spurs are both 7-32 and the Nets and Bulls are both below .500. Before that, they faced the Raptors and the. Bucks and lost both games. The Cavaliers limited Chicago to 91 but are only 2-4 against the spread after allowing 100 or less. The Bucks are healthier than the Cavaliers. The Bucks are also fresh. They've had the past 2 days off, after playing 4 straight at home. They are 18-8-1 their last 27 against the spread (24-3 straight up) after playing their previous 3 at home and they will improve on that streak tonight. |
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01-10-24 | Wolves v. Celtics -7.5 | Top | 120-127 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
The Timberwolves are walking into a hornet's nest. Minnesota had an easy time with Orlando last night. Revenge-minded Boston presents a far more difficult challenge. The Wolves are 0-2 against the spread when playing their 2nd game in 2 days. The only time that they played a road game after playing the previous day, they lost by 18! Boston, 8-2 SU its last 10 in a revenge spot, hasn't forgotten a 114-109 loss early in the season. The Celtics are also still angry about a 133-131 loss at Indiana on Monday. They're 9-1 against the spread the past 10 tries, after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game. The Celtics beat this team by 12 here last season and this will be another double-digit win. ***REVENGE GOM*** |
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01-08-24 | Suns +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 111-138 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
These teams are both off close losses last night. The Suns fell by 6 to Memphis. The Clippers lost by 3 against the Lakers. This will be the second meeting in less than a week. The Clippers won at Phoenix, on 1/3. The Suns are better than the Clippers when playing their 2nd game in 2 days. They're 4-1 SU in that situation this season, 20-11 their past 31. The Clippers are 2-3 SU in that situation this season, just 13-21 the past 34. The only time that the Suns lost a back-to-back spot was a very competitive game. They lost by 4 at Brooklyn. The 4 wins came by 56 combined points. The Suns aren't going to want to lose twice in a week to this team. They will continue their success when playing 2 games in 2 days. ***PACIFIC DIV GOM*** |
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01-01-24 | Pacers v. Bucks -7 | Top | 122-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is the 4th meeting. The first two saw Indiana win 126-124 (at Indiana) and 128-119. The second of those was the Eastern Finals for the In-Season-Tournament, in Las Vegas. That loss didn't sit very well with the Bucks. With the third meeting being played at Milwaukee, they beat up the Pacers 140-126. The Pacers have won 3 straight for the 3rd time this season. Each previous time they lost their next game. Each defeat came by 9 or more. The Pacers are 7-9 ATS against winning teams. The Bucks are 8-4 ATS against winning teams. Lay the points with Milwaukee! **CENTRAL GOM** |
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12-29-23 | Spurs v. Blazers -4 | Top | 128-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
San Antonio won here last night. Portland won't let it happen again. Last night's game was over before it started. The Spurs were up 38-14 by the end of the first quarter. The Trail Blazers will get off to a better start tonight. San Antonio's star rookie Victor Wembanyama had 30 points, six rebounds, six assists and seven blocks last night. He won't play tonight. The Trail Blazers are 3-0 against the spread the last 3x they played 2 games in 2 days. The Spurs last 3 tries in a b2b spot all resulted in double-digit losses. They are 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 when playing 2 games in 2 days. The Trail Blazers have a long road trip after this game. They can't afford to get swept by the Spurs. Portland wins big! ***REVENGE GOW*** |
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12-25-23 | Warriors +6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
Give me the points with the Warriors. Warriors lost by 3 points here in November and GSW is 55-38 against the spread in the revenge role last few years. Last 2 meetings have both been decided by 3 or less. Warriors are 5-2 against the spread last 7 visits here. Nuggets have won 4 in a row but they failed to cover the last game which brought them to 1-7 ATS after 3 or more straight wins. They are 18-34 against the spread their last 52 in that situation. In another close encounter, Warriors will move to 4-1 against the spread when off a win by 10 or more. **Western Conf GOM** |
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12-21-23 | Jazz v. Pistons +1.5 | Top | 119-111 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
This is it! The Pistons Christmas wish will be answered. In their final home game before the holiday, the Pistons get to face a Utah team which is terrible on the road and which is playing in a back-to-back situation. Well-rested and happy to be back home, the Pistons will extend a 13-8-1 against the spread record, after playing their previous 3 games on the road. Detroit covered the spread last game and has shown signs of fighting, despite playing much better teams than Utah. The Jazz are 2-13 on the road. This will be their 6th game in 9 days. Stop the presses. Detroit wins a game! ***Underdog GOY*** |
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12-20-23 | Knicks v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is the first meeting of the season between these Atlantic Division rivals. The home team won all 4 meetings last season. The Knicks won by 24 and 18 points at Madison Square Garden. The Nets prevailed by 7 and 27 points when they where the host. Both teams were recently on the road against Western Conference opposition. Off 3 straight losses to close their trip, the Nets are going to be going all out to stop their losing streak. The only previous occasion where they lost 3 in a row saw the Nets respond with a 15 point win over Miami. The Knicks are 1-2 against the spread off an upset win. The Nets are 10-2-1 against the spread at home, 4-0 ATS at home when the total was 230 or more. Brooklyn gets it done! ***ATLANTIC DIV GOM*** |
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12-19-23 | Celtics v. Warriors +6 | Top | 126-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Boston is good but this is too many points. The Celtics aren't as strong on the road as they are at home. Warriors are better at home. The Celtics were favored here last season but the Warriors won by 16. They also lost by only 3 at Boston. Warriors are 66-45 against the spread at home last 2 years. Celtics are already 0-2 against Western Conference opponents. They will have a difficult time again tonight. Grab the points! ***Underdog GOW*** |
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12-18-23 | Rockets v. Cavs -4 | Top | 130-135 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Strong spot for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Cleveland scored 127 in Saturday's 8-point win over Atlanta. The Cavaliers had Sunday off. Not so for the Rockets. They played at Milwaukee on Sunday. The last time that the Rockets played 2 games in 2 days saw them lose by 10. The Cavaliers won by 17 points and by 18 points in last season's 2 games with the Rockets. Even dealing with some injuries, the Cavaliers, 4-1-2 against the spread in December, will win big again on Monday. ***NBA GOW*** |
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12-16-23 | Knicks v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 122-144 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
The Knicks beat the Clippers 111-97 on November 6th, at MSG. They pulled away in the second half and spoiled the debut of James Harden. Six weeks later, the Clippers will have their revenge. The Clippers have won 6 straight games and they are 4-1 against the spread their last 5. They didn't play on Friday. The Knicks played last night at Phoenix. The Knicks are 2-3 against the spread when playing the second of back to backs. The Clippers won by 11 last meeting here. Look for NY to fall to 3-8 against the spread against winning teams. ***Revenge GOM*** |
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12-15-23 | Pistons +16.5 v. 76ers | Top | 92-124 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a case of too many points, given the scheduling situation. The 76ers just destroyed the Pistons at Detroit. They will be over-confident tonight. With a Saturday road game to follow, they will take it easy late in the game. The Pistons are 2-0 against the spread when they were road underdogs of 12.5 or more points. They play with 2x revenge and will play with a chip on their shoulder. This season's first meeting was close, the 76ers winning by 8. This will be too. Grab the big points. ***Eastern Conf GOW*** |
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12-14-23 | Jazz v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
I won with the over when these teams faced each other earlier this month. This time, the play is on Portland. The Jazz won yesterday but have dropped all 4 games when playing 2 games in 2 days. Their 3 road games in that situation all lost by double-figures. One of those was a 16 point setback at Portland. The Jazz are only 1-11 on the road overall, the worst road record in the league. The Trail Blazers are 9-5-1 against the spread their last 15 in a revenge situation. Lay the small number and look for a big win for the home team. ***Northwest Div GOM*** |
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12-09-23 | Pacers v. Lakers -4 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
The Pacers have been scoring points at a high rate and have done very well to get this far. Lebron may be downplaying it but he is on a mission to add in-season tournament champion to his resume. James, Davis and the Lakers will not be denied. The Lakers have allowed only 89, 103 and 97 points over their last 3 games. Indiana will get more but not as many as it normally does. The Lakers superior defense will be on display on ABC TV and will separate them from the Pacers. ***Non-Conf GOM*** |
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12-08-23 | Kings v. Suns +2 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
No Durant. No problem. Even though they're short-handed, the Suns will be bringing their best on Friday night. Remember, that Booker carried the load before Durant arrived and that he can still do so. With Durant out, we get the Suns as underdogs and don't have to worry about laying any points. The Kings are 4-8 against the spread as favorites and they're 3-6 against the spread the past 9 times that they played with 3 or more day's rest. The Suns are 74-31 straight-up their last 105 in this building. They score 118.2 at home compared to Sacramento's 112.9 on the road. Booker will have a monster game and the Suns will move to 12-8 against the spread their last 20 home games with a total of 230 or more. ***Pacific Div GOY*** |
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12-05-23 | Suns +1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
The Lakers have managed to win both of this season's games. That changes tonight. The Suns had Durant for the first 2 games but not Booker. Tonight, they'll have both. Booker is averaging 27.9 points, 5.8 rebounds and 8.4 assists through 11 games. Each of the first 2 games were very close. Adding Booker to the Suns makes them far more dangerous than the team that LA saw in those first 2 games. The Lakers are 0-3 against the spread on the season, after allowing less than 100 points in their previous games. In two of those instances, they allowed more than 130 points in losing the next game. Booker, Durant and the Suns will take this one. ***Pacific Div. GOM*** |
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12-04-23 | Celtics v. Pacers +5 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The Celtics humbled them 155-104 at the beginning of November and the Pacers haven't forgotten! Indiana is 9-4, both straight up and against the spread, its last 13 times in the revenge role. The Pacers lost by 4, in OT, the last time that they hosted the Celtics. The previous meeting here saw Indiana win decisively. The Pacers are averaging 128.8 points a game, most in the league. They just beat Miami 144-129 and they are 14-8 against the spread the past 22 times that they were off a game where they scored 130 or more. Grab the points! ***Eastern Conf. GOM*** |
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12-01-23 | Wizards +11 v. Magic | Top | 125-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
It's not easy to blow a team out two games in a row. Orlando hammered Washington a couple of days ago. It won't happen again! The Wizards have been at their best when off a bad loss. They're 71.4% against the spread when off a loss of 10 or more. Magic 12-15-1 against the spread last 28 when off a win of 10+. Washington coach Wes Unseld Jr: "We just have to get there with a little more urgency..." The Wizards will play with a sense of urgency and they will improve to 13-7 against the spread their last 20 tries after giving up 130+. **southeast GOY** |
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11-30-23 | Pistons +13.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
I can understand that some bettors don't like taking a team like the Pistons. Personally, I don't like to pass up opportunities. The Pistons got blown out last night. That has allowed us to get a couple of extra points. Detroit doesn't mind playing 2 games in 2 days though. They have been in that situation 4 times this season. They won 1 game and the other 3 losses all came by 11 or less. They almost upset Denver. They are 17-13-1 against the spread in back to back situations the last 2 years. The Knicks have a division road game tomorrow night. They will be tested. Grab the points! ***Eastern Conf GOW*** |
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11-29-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -4 | Top | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Grizzlies are going to really want this game. They're still winless at home and need to fix that. They're also 0-2 against Utah already this season. They're going to want to fix that, too. Adding to the revenge angle, the most recent of those games had some controversy. Memphis player Jared Jackson got ejected with a double-technical. Coach Jenkins said: "One of the most poorly officiated games I've ever seen," which led to him being fined $25,000 by the NBA. He went on to say: "Our team is competing their tails off, and this is what happens? The interaction right now with the officials, complete disrespect. It's unbelievable. ... I don't understand it." Grizzlies are 40-30-2 against the spread in the revenge role last 2 years, 12-8-2 against the spread when avenging a home loss. They will improve to 16-8 against the spread their last 24, after scoring 100 or less. ***Revenge GOM*** |
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11-26-23 | Hornets +7.5 v. Magic | Top | 117-130 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Orlando has been rolling but Charlotte is also a lot better than people realize. Myles Bridges has made a big difference. The Hornets are off back to back victories, of those coming against Boston. LaMelo Ball is playing his best. Ball had 34 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds last game. That's 7 times in 9 games that he's scored 30 or more. Bridges said this of Ball: "He's playing at an unbelievable level. He's made the leap into being a superstar. He was an All-Star, but now he's a superstar. If he's not on any of the All-NBA teams I'll be surprised. He's a winner." The Hornets are 5-1 against the spread the past 6 times that they played with 3 or more day's rest. Grab the points. ***Southeast GOM*** |
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11-21-23 | Pacers v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 157-152 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
After playing 3 games in 4 days, the Hawks got a nice break. They are coming in rested and ready to go. After this comes Brooklyn and then a long stretch on the road. It's imperative that the Hawks make hay while the sun is shining. The Pacers can't be trusted on the road. They are getting outscored by an average score of 132.7 to 121.7 in their away games. The Hawks scored 143 against them last meeting here! They will drop a massive number on this defensively challenged team once again. Indiana will score a lot, just not enough. Let's go Hawks! ***Eastern Conf. GOM*** |
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11-19-23 | Thunder v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 134-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Portland rested yesterday. OKC played against the Warriors. This will be the first time this season that the Thunder play a "road" game after having played the previous night. The Thunder got destroyed in their only previous division game. The Thunder won all 4 meetings last season. All four games were won by 9 or fewer points though and 3 of them were decided by 6 or less, 2 by 3 or less. Really close games from these division rivals! Portland has a great chance of winning this game and will at least keep it close again. Grab the points! **Northwest Div. GOY** |
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11-18-23 | Mavs v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 125-132 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Bucks have finally gotten it going. Mavericks are at the end of a road trip. Bucks swept last year's 2 games. and they won by 9 in their home game. Bucks coach Adrian Griffin said the following after last night's big victory: "I love how we shared the ball and moved the ball and we're looking for each other. That's something we've been stressing in the last probably week or so." Mavericks are only 24-38-4 against the spread last 66 in Non-Conf action. The Bucks will get this done! ***Non-Conf GOW*** |
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11-17-23 | Celtics v. Raptors +7.5 | Top | 108-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
The Celtics are definitely playing well but they've got a few question marks for tonight. Brown and Porzingis are questionable. Horford is probable but not 100%. Those are 3 important players to this team. Even if all 3 go, they could play at less than their usual potential. Regardless of what lineup the Celtics ultimately settle on, they are going to face a very competitive Toronto team. The Raptors just got blown out by the Bucks. They are 20-14 against the spread their past 34 times they were off a loss of 10 or more points, 21 outright wins. Over the same period, they are 49-42 against the spread in the revenge role, 54-40 against teams with a winning record. Boston is only 30-39 against the spread against losing teams over that time. Both the Celtics losses have come on the road. The Celtics allow 108.7 points on the road and the Raptors allow 108.8 at home. The last time Boston played here, it was a 2-point game. The time before that, it was a 4-point Toronto win. Grab the points! ***Atlantic Div GOY*** |
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11-09-23 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 124-126 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
Both teams won last night. The Bucks won a close one and the Pacers won a blowout. Milwaukee is better suited to play two games in two days. The Bucks' only against the spread victory came the only previous time that they played the second back-to-back games. The Pacers lost outright to Charlotte when they previously played the second of back-to-back games this season. It's only November 9th but this will already be Indiana's 6th game this month. The Bucks have played one less this month and this season. In this back-to-back situation, that extra game will contribute to Indiana's tired legs. The Bucks are 6-2 against the spread their last 8 against the Pacers, a perfect 4-0 in games played at Indiana. Go Bucks! ***Central Div GOY |
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11-08-23 | Blazers v. Kings -8 | Top | 118-121 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The Kings are the much better team and they will blow out the TrailBlazers tonight. They beat Portland 138-114 last meeting and 120-80 the previous meeting. The one before that was a 17-point win for Sacramento. Portland is a terrible 43-68 against the spread in the underdog role the last 2 years. Kings are 18-7 against the spread their last 25 times that they were off 3 or more losses in a row. Sacramento in a blowout! ***western conf. GOW |
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11-03-23 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | Top | 116-121 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is what I said before Cleveland's last game: "The Knicks beat up on the Cavaliers last night in Cleveland. As they say, turnabout is fair play. With a chance to immediately right that wrong, the Cavaliers will elevate their intensity for the rematch ... They start the new month with an upset." Sure enough. The Cavaliers delivered me an upset victory, holding NY to 89 points. Once again, they get an early chance to exact some revenge against a team which has already beaten them. The Pacers caught them in a back-to-back situation the first game but that's not happening this time. The Cavaliers won by 19 last time they were on this floor and they'll win again tonight! ***eastern conf gow |
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11-02-23 | Spurs v. Suns -8 | Top | 132-121 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a bad spot for the Spurs. They just stunned the Suns a couple of days ago. The Suns let them hang around and the Spurs took advantage with a last second victory. Rest assured, the Suns won't make the same mistake twice. It's a new month and these teams are going to go in opposite directions, starting tonight. The Spurs were 10-18 against the spread the past two Novembers, winning only five games straight-up. The Suns were 20-11 against the spread the past two Novembers, 26 of those resulting in outright victories. The Suns have been at their best off an upset loss the last 2 years. They're 21-11 against the spread in that situation. Expect a decisive victory! ***nov gom |
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10-28-23 | 76ers -4 v. Raptors | Top | 114-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Raptors fought really hard only to lose by a point to the Bulls last night. It was a game that they had seemingly locked up. Blowing the lead will hurt their play today. Philadelphia rested. The 76'ers won the last three meetings. Last game in Canada resulted in a 112-90 victory for the visiting 76'ers. The 76'ers are 91-34 from a straight-up perspective the past 125 times that they were favored. They're more talented than the Raptors and they'll have much fresher legs. With their coach looking to get back at his former team, the 76'er will improve on that record while also covering the pointspread. *Atlantic Div GOM |
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10-26-23 | Suns v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 95-100 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
We played against the Lakers in their Opening Night loss. That was at Denver, Jokic and the defending champions were getting their rings. A home game against a Suns team expected to be without Beal is a different story. Phoenix is only 30-41 ATS last 71 after allowing 105 points or less. Lakers beat the Suns by 14 last meeting here. The home team won all four meetings by double-figures. Lebron and the Lakers get it done in front of the home fans. *Western Conf. GOM |
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10-25-23 | Wizards v. Pacers -7 | Top | 120-143 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The Pacers haven't won a season opener since 2020. That changes this evening. The Wizards beat the Pacers here in last year''s opener. This year, Washington has gone through a major rebuild and won't be ready to compete the entire way with Indiana in this one. Wizards only 34-45-3 ATS last 82 on the road. Pacers lost the opener against the Wizards but are still 36-14 SU the last 50 meetings and they won by 10 the last time they hosted the Wizards. I've got them taking advantage of the favorable matchup and winning this one by at least that many. *Eastern Conf GOM |
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06-07-23 | Nuggets -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 109-94 | Win | 100 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
You know the setup. The Nuggets won Game 1 and the Heat came back to win Game 2. The Heat may have stolen homecourt advantage but the Nuggets are still heavily favored to win the series. Most shops have them in the -275 range to do so. That means that they're expected to win at least one game at Miami. No time like the present to make that happen either. The only other time that the Nuggets were tied in a series was Game 5 against the Suns. Denver won by 16 and only trailed for 14 seconds of that entire game. The Nuggets are 3-0 straight-up and ATS their last three when tied in a series and they're 12-7-2 ATS when coming off an upset loss as favorite. The Heat are only 7-13 ATS when playing with 2 day's rest. Lay the small number with the Nuggets in Game 3. *Playoff GOY |
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05-27-23 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The Celtics have now done what only 14 teams previous to them have accomplished. That is to force a Game 6 after falling 0-3 in a playoff series. Now they seek to do what only three other teams have done after falling behind 0-3 - force a Game 7. (No team has ever come back to win the series after being down 0-3). Boston’s confidence has to be booming after the 110-97 win in Game 5. Basically, they led for double digits the entire game. Meanwhile, Miami’s confidence has to be waning. This was a Heat team that was really overachieving; they finished the regular season with a negative point differential and negative net efficiency. The Heat are 5-11 ATS this season following a double digit loss. Gabe Vincent (ankle) remains questionable for tonight and we know Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are already out. This team is running out of bodies and is really reliant on Jimmy Butler carrying the scoring load. Boston, on the other hand, had four 20+ point scorers in Game 5. They’ve shot 51% as a team the last two games including 40% from three. It’ll be difficult to maintain those percentages, but there is no denying which of these two teams has the deeper roster. The thing about Miami is they actually shot well in Game 5 and still ended up with only 97 points. All the momentum in this series has shifted and I’m laying the short number with the better team. 10* |
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05-20-23 | Nuggets +6 v. Lakers | Top | 119-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The Lakers (barely) covered the spread in both Games 1 and 2, but my view is that even at home in a desperate situation, they should not be laying this many points to the top-seeded Nuggets. Yes, LA did have the lead for most of Game 2 before succumbing late (but, again, still covering). However, they were largely dominated for most of Game 1 and did not deserve to get the cash in that game. I know Denver isn’t nearly the same team on the road as they are at home, but this is too many points considering their only three losses this postseason have been by a total of 18 points. LeBron James has been miserable from three in the playoffs (23.3%) including 0 for 10 in this series alone. The Lakers are not a good three-point shooting team, making it difficult to build/maintain the kind of lead they need to cover this number. Also, Reaves and Hachimura are due for some regression. Unless Anthony Davis steps up in a major way, I don’t see how the Lakers win this game, let alone cover. 10* |
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05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | Top | 111-105 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
Might as well start by pointing out that teams who lose Game 1 at home are 21-1 straight up and 20-2 ATS in Game 2 going back to 2019. Boston fits that profile tonight, so I’ll be laying the points. The Celtics were in this exact same situation in the last round. They dropped Game 1 to Philadelphia, 119-115 as a 10.5-point favorite. They immediately bounced back, winning Game 2 121-87, laying a similar number. The trend mentioned above is a perfect 7-0 SU this season, five of those wins coming by 14 points or greater. I can’t see Miami shooting 51% from three again nor do I see them shooting 54% overall from the field. The Heat have “stolen” Game 1 on the road in all three series this postseason. But they are 0-2 thus far in Game 2’s, losing at Milwaukee by 16 and New York by 6. The Celtics are 20-10 SU off a loss and should win big tonight. 10* |
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05-18-23 | Lakers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
For most of the 48 minutes in Game 1, Denver clearly looked like the better team. But the Nuggets did not cover the closing number, either pushing or failing to cover depending on your shop. I fully anticipate they will cover the spread here in Game 2. Both teams shot nearly 55% from the floor in Game 1 and roughly 46% from three. Playing on the road, it is the Lakers that are more likely to experience offensive regression in Game 2. This is a team that shoots the three at only 34.5% for the year. Denver is shooting 51% for the year here at home. The Nuggets are also typically much better at the defensive end at home. In Game 1, they gave up 72 points in the second half. This is a team that came into the WCF ranked #2 in the league, allowing just over 108 points/game on its home court. Not only do I not see Anthony Davis scoring another 40 for LA, Austin Reaves (23 points) and Rui Hachimura (17) won’t match their Game 1 scoring either. The Lakers are 2-9 against the spread this season following a game where they allowed 130 or more points. Denver is 41-7 SU at home, winning by an average of 10.3 points per game. |
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05-14-23 | 76ers v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 88-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
Going back to last Saturday, NBA home teams are 12-2 straight up and 10-3-1 against the spread. The only two SU losses both came in this series, the last two games where Philadelphia won Game 5 in Boston and then the Celtics returned the favor at Philly in Game 6. I look for “order” to be restored in Game 7, however. What a brutal loss for the 76ers Thursday as they shot 36.1% overall from the field including 8 of 34 (23.5%) from three. I had the Under, so I was happy with the final score being 95-86. The Celtics being +21 from beyond the three-point line was huge in Game 6. Since Game 1, there hasn’t been a game in the series where they were outscored from three. 76ers’ head coach Doc Rivers has blown three 3-1 series leads in his career. This would be “just” 3-2, but I have little confidence in Doc. He has lost NINE Game 7’s, by far the most of any coach in history. Home teams also win Game 7 at a very high percentage. The Celtics won Game 6 despite Jayson Tatum missing 14 of his first 15 shot attempts. You’ve got to figure he’ll shoot much better at home Sunday. Boston is the better team. 10* |
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05-12-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Heat | Top | 92-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The Knicks staved off elimination once, now let’s see if they can do it again Friday on the road. They obviously come into Miami as underdogs, but that’s okay considering the Heat’s somewhat lousy 22-37-2 ATS mark as favorites this season. I’m taking the points in Game 6 tonight. It was just a three-point lead at halftime for the Knicks in Game 5 as they got off to a really slow start (just 14 pts in the 1Q). From there, they took control in the second half, going up by as many as 19 before Miami made a late push. The trio of Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett and Julius Randle once again carried the scoring load (88 combined points) with Brunson’s 38 leading the way. The Knicks also shot much better than normal from three (38.2%), at least by this series’ standard. I don’t necessarily expect NY to shoot as well from three tonight. But I also don’t expect them to fall into an early hole like they did in the last game. Playing for their season, you know you’re getting their best effort for 48 minutes. I also have my doubts about Miami, who isn’t capable of scoring a ton without Jimmy Butler going off. The Heat are only shooting 43% from the field in this series and 31% from three. I’m not exactly sure why this spread is larger than both Games 3 and 4 at home. Going back to the start of the series against Cleveland, the Knicks are allowing just 100.1 points/game. Given that points figure to be at a premium again tonight, I want to be on the dog. 8* |
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05-11-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -3 | Top | 125-100 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The Suns need to win Game 6 to stay alive and I think they will, with room to spare, so I’m laying the points. Devin Booker and Kevin Durant have both been other-worldly in this series, combining to average 65 points/game. The thing is they need help. Last home game they got help from Landry Shamet, who scored 19 thanks to making five threes. Whether it’s Shamet or someone else on this Suns’ roster, expect someone to “lend a helping hand” at home tonight. Denver is 40-7 SU at home, but they are sub-.500 on the road with the scoring differential going from +10.3 at home to -3.0 on the road. So that’s why there’s such a drastic change in the spread from the last game to this one. In the two previous home games in this series, Phoenix averaged 125 points on 53% shooting. Denver is simply not the same team defensively on the road as they are at home. At home and trailing in the series, the Suns are a perfect 3 for 3 ATS. 10* |
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05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Golden State’s season is on the line tonight after blowing a double digit lead on the road in Game 4. They led the Lakers by as many as 12 in the second half, but a second straight uncharacteristically poor performance at the offensive end doomed them. In the two games down in LA, the Warriors shot below 30% from three. Steph Curry was only 3 of 14 on 3PA in Game 4. Now back home, you’ve got to expect a better showing at the offensive end from Curry and his teammates. After all, they are 36-10 straight up and 30-16 ATS at the Chase Center in 2022-23. But much of the reason the Warriors are so much better at home than on the road is because of their defense. They are basically allowing 10 fewer points/game at home compared to the road. The Lakers are not an efficient team offensively and have shot worse than 30% from three in all but three playoff games. After back to back road losses in Sacramento in the first round, the Warriors responded with a 17-point win here at home. Up 3-1 in the first round vs. Memphis, the Lakers lost Game 5 (on the road) by 17. I expect a similar result tonight. 10* |
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05-10-23 | Heat v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Knicks got strong performances out of Julius Randle (20 points), Jalen Brunson (32) and R.J. Barrett (24) in Game 4, but the rest of the team combined to score only 25 points and as a result, they are down 3-1 in this best of seven series. But the good news is that Game 5 is at Madison Square Garden. Last time here, the Knicks won 111-105 and shot 40% from three. The other three games have seen dreadful three-point shooting from NY. My hope here is that we’ll see a shooting effort along the lines of Game 2. I also don’t think the Knicks will be outrebounded the way they were in the two games at Miami. In the regular season, New York was the #2 rebounding team in the entire NBA. Defensively, the Knicks have little to worry about. They’ve given up an average of just 99.7 points/game this postseason, which is pretty remarkable in 2023. Miami hasn’t exactly shot the lights out in this series either, though Jimmy Butler has carried the load offensively. I’m not really a believer in this Heat team, which is an 8-seed and was on the verge of losing to Chicago in the play-in tournament. They had a negative point differential and net efficiency in the regular season. Them making a Conference Final (would be first 8-seed to do so since 1999) would be rather shocking to me. 10* |
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05-09-23 | Suns v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
Phoenix has come back to tie this series up 2-2, but they have needed herculean efforts from both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker, plus a breakout effort from Landry Shamet in Game 4. Durant and Booker have combined for a ridiculous 273 points in this series with Booker shooting 66.7% from three and 34 of 43 overall the last two games. Shamet’s breakthrough in Game 4 came out of nowhere (he’d scored just 14 points total this postseason, previously!) I just can’t see Durant and Booker continuing that pace, Booker specifically, and the Suns’ role players are unlikely to contribute much with the series moving back to Denver. At home, the Nuggets are allowing just 108.5 points/game for the year, second best in the league. They are simply a much better team at home where they’ve gone 39-7 SU (+10.2 PPG) as opposed to 20-25 SU (-3.0 PPG) on the road. Nikola Jokic (53 points in Game 4) won’t be suspended, so he’s a go. It’s also time for someone on the Nuggets other than Jokic or Jamal Murray to step up. Similar to Shamet for Phoenix in the last game, I expect someone will. Certainly, Denver will get more than 11 bench points tonight. Lay the points. 10* |
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05-08-23 | Warriors +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The last two games of this series have both been blowouts, each team winning at home. The Warriors now look to bounce back in Game 4 and even the series at two games apiece. I like the defending champs plus the points. It was a horrible shooting night for Golden State in Game 3 as they made only 39.6% from the field and 29.5% from three. They were also -20 in FT attempts. Meanwhile, the Lakers shot 52.5% from three and were an uncharacteristic 48.4% from three. I say “uncharacteristic” because six of the previous seven games saw LA shoot worse than 30% from three. Anthony Davis had 25 points last game, 11 of those coming from the charity stripe. Davis has yet to have back to back games this postseason with 20+ points. I know that Golden State has generally been terrible on the road this year, but they have won at least one road game in every series since Steve Kerr took over, including two in Sacramento last round. This is a team known for bouncing back from a bad loss. 10* |
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05-06-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 97-127 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Golden State tied this series up with a convincing 127-100 victory in Game 2, shooting 50% overall and from three. But now they’re on the road - where they simply have not been the same team in 2022-23. The Warriors are 13-32 straight up and 14-30-1 ATS on the road this season. However, they have won their last two road games, both at Sacramento. My big concern with the Lakers is that they simply do not shoot the three well enough to stay with Golden State. In six of their eight playoff games thus far, LA has shot worse than 30 percent from behind the arc. Also, as I’m sure you’ve heard, the Warriors have won at least one road game in every playoff series under Steve Kerr. The Dubs flat out looked like the better team in Game 2 and I see no reason why we shouldn't take them as underdogs here in Game 3. 10* |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
I just can’t trust the Heat as favorites, especially with all the injuries. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are of course out for the season while, more importantly, Jimmy Butler remains questionable due to an ankle. Even at full strength, Miami is terrible as a home favorite. They are 13-23-2 ATS this season as chalk in South Beach, not to mention 20-37-2 ATS as favorites of any kind. If Butler can’t go, that’s two of the Heat’s three 20+ point scorers out of the lineup. I just don’t know where else the production would come from. They only scored 105 without Butler in Game 2. The Knicks lost Game 1, but they didn’t have Julius Randle, their top scorer. He, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett combine to average 68.7 points per game and they are all now healthy. Big edge in rebounding for the Knicks as well in the first two games (+25). This team is 26-18 SU/28-15-1 ATS on the road. 10* |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Golden State is only 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road while the Lakers have had two more days rest after finishing off Memphis with an emphatic 40-point win. But the Warriors are 21-4 straight up in Game 1’s under Steve Kerr including 19-2 at home (did lose Gm 1 at Sacramento in Rd 1) while LeBron James is just 4-14 SU in his career in road Game 1’s. So I’m going to go ahead and lay the points in this one. Golden State is simply a different team at home - where they are 35-9 SU and 29-15 ATS this year. Defensively is where we see the most improvement home vs. road with the Warriors. They allow just 111.8 points per game at home compared to 121.8 pn the road. In two of the three games at Memphis in the first round, the Lakers failed to score 100 points. This is a problem facing a Warriors team that scores an average of 119.2 points at home. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors are 66-37 ATS at home when the total is 220 or higher. 8* |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -6.5 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The Knicks really “gave” Game 1 away in my view. They were leading by double digits after the first quarter and then up 55-50 going into halftime. But ice cold shooting from three-point land doomed them. They finished the game a woeful 7 of 34 (20.6%) from long range. Let’s also not forget they missed 8 of 20 free throw attempts. So I’ll lay the points again in Game 2 … Miami was already without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Now Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and that is obviously a major problem. Butler is clearly the Heat’s best player and carried them again with 25 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1. If Butler were to miss this game, I’d say the Heat have zero chance of winning. Plus, NY could get Julius Randle back. Even if Randle doesn’t return, I expect Jalen Brunson to have a bounce back effort after he went 0 for 7 from three in Game 1. Miami is the ONLY playoff team that ended the regular season with a negative net efficiency rating. They also have a losing road record. After overperforming tremendously in the first round, at least at the offensive end, this is a team due for some serious regression - whether Butler can go or not. (Reports are that Butler’s ankle has swollen to the size of a baseball). 10* |
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05-01-23 | Suns +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Phoenix fell victim to some hot shooting from Denver, specifically from Jamal Murray, in Game 1 and that is why they came up short, 125-107. The good news for the Suns is that their two superstars - Kevin Durant and Devin Booker - both played well in Game 1. That duo combined for 56 points. Now they just need their teammates to “step it up.” The Nuggets were 16 of 37 from three and had 17 more FG attempts than the Suns in Game 1. Murray was 6 of 10 himself from three on his way to 34 points. I don’t see him matching that production in Game 2. Despite being the 4-seed, Phoenix is the betting favorite in this series and to win the Western Conference. I think they’re a great value as an underdog tonight. The Suns only attempted five threes in the 1H Saturday night, but then started launching in the 2H. They only made seven threes for the game, a number they should easily exceed tonight and thus I like them to cover the spread. 10* |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
I like the Knicks here in Game 1 of their second round series against the Heat. Miami clearly overachieved in Round 1 vs. Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple games vs. the Bucks, but more notably the Heat averaged 124 points/game in the series, a double digit increase over what they averaged in the regular season. I expect some offensive regression from the visitors on Sunday. New York just held Cleveland to an average of 94.2 points/game in the first round series. That’s a tremendous defensive effort. The Knicks have covered 24 of their last 35 games overall. The Heat are still only 19-25 SU and 18-26 ATS on the road this season. Just don’t think this spread is large enough. Miami comes in short-handed as both Herro and Oladipo have been lost for the season. The Knicks are at full strength. 10* |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Atlanta shocked us all by winning Game 5 in Boston, 119-117 as 13-point underdogs. Over the final nine minutes, the Hawks outscored the Celtics 30-15 with Trae Young putting the exclamation point on things with a three-point bomb to win it with just two seconds remaining. Atlanta made 19 threes in the game, none bigger than Young’s obviously, and making the result all the more shocking is that the Hawks were without Dejounte Murray (suspended). Murray returns tonight as the series returns to Atlanta. But it’s difficult to ignore the fact the Celtics dominated Game 5 for three quarters, outscoring the Hawks 60-38 in the paint and 24-8 in transition. I see Boston ending the series tonight and will lay the points. The Celtics are clearly the better team and have been ahead most of the series. The Hawks are awful defensively (119.3 points/game allowed in this series) and won’t shoot 46% again from three. 10* |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
It’s do or die in Game 4 for the Timberwolves, who are facing elimination at home. Denver has taken the first three games of this best of seven series, 109-80, 122-113 and 120-111. The Nuggets are shooting 52.1% for the series after going 57.1% in Game 3, which included 13 of 32 from three. Minnesota has outscored Denver in just one of the 12 quarters in this series. But I expect a fired up effort by the home team in Game 4 with the season on the line. Denver isn’t likely to shoot as well as it did in the last game. It’s absolutely worth noting that the Nuggets have only prevailed by single digits each of the last two games despite shooting over 55% from the field. Denver isn’t a great road team either. For the season, they have a losing record away from home, getting outscored by almost three points per game. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS this season following three straight losses. They are 8-3 straight up in those games as well. 10* |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Ja Morant remains questionable for Game 3, but regardless if the Memphis’ star plays or not, I’m rolling with the Lakers. LA took Game 1 128-112, thanks to four different players scoring 20 or more points. Predictably, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura cooled off in Game 2 and the Grizzlies, at home, were able to win without Ja, 103-93 as slight underdogs. But now the Grizz are on the road where they’ve gone just 14-26-2 ATS this season and they may be without their best player yet again. Outside of LeBron James and Hachimura, the rest of the Lakers shot just 24.2% in Game 2. That number will go up by a lot here in Game 3. Memphis is 0-5 ATS the last five games off a SU win and 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games after an ATS win. 10* |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -1 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Not like this is some big revelation, but the Cavaliers have a very young roster with little playoff experience. This will be the first road playoff game for most and I see the team struggling tonight at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 against the Knicks. Cleveland simply isn’t the same team away that they were at home. On the road this season, they are 17-21 straight up. Also, they are just 4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS in games where they are priced as an underdog. Give the Cavs credit for a good season, but they benefited from a fortunate 7-0 SU record in overtime games and really dominated the lesser teams on the schedule (30-5 SU vs. sub-.500 teams). Against teams that have a winning record, the Cavs are just 22-27 SU this year. The fact that the Knicks were able to escape Cleveland with a 1-1 split is actually encouraging when you consider they shot below 40% in the two games combined, including 15 of 58 from three. Back home, I expect far better offensive numbers tonight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 100 points or less. They scored 90 in Game 2. The Knicks are still 4-2 SU vs. Cleveland this year and I think they are really being undervalued in this spot. Look for a strong start by the home team tonight as they average more than 60 points per game in the 1H at home. That strong start should carry them to a Game 3 victory. 10* |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The Warriors are down 0-2 in a series for the first time under Steve Kerr and won’t have Draymond Green (suspended) for Game 3. But the good news for Warriors’ fans is that home teams down 0-2 in a series are 50-26 SU in Game 3. I wouldn’t be concerned about laying the points as the SU winner has also covered the spread in every playoff game this season and 44 straight times going back to last season. Plus Golden State is a much different team at home than on the road (where they are a woeful 12-30 ATS). They are 33-8 SU and 28-13 ATS at the Chase Center. Over the course of the first two games, the Warriors outshot the Kings - both overall and from three-point land. I worry about this young Kings’ team in its first playoff road game. Also, even after dropping Game 2, the Warriors are still 22-14 ATS off a playoff loss. 10* |
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04-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I will role with Phoenix in Game 1 as this is a completely different team when Kevin Durant plays (8-0 SU, outscoring opponents by 11.6 per 100 possessions) When Durant plays with Devin Booker, the Suns have a +18.4 net rating and average 124.7 points per 100 possessions. They are a deserved favorite to come out of the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Clippers don’t have Paul George for this series. They do have Kawhi Leonard, but I don’t think that’s enough to stay with the high-powered Suns, at least here in Game 1. In the regular season finale, when the Clippers needed a win to clinch the 5-seed, they could only beat Phoenix by five. And that was with the Suns sitting seven players, four of them being Durant, Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Clippers have underachieved all year and I don’t see that changing now. 10* |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
The Lakers earned the 7-seed by beating Minnesota in the Play-in Round back on Tuesday. But I felt LeBron and company were a little lucky to escape with a victory in that one. Not only did they need overtime to get the ‘W’ but they trailed by as many as 15 points in that game. The T’wolves scored just 16 points from the start of the fourth quarter through OT. Memphis, at home, is not going to wither like that. The Grizzlies finished the regular season with the best point differential in the Western Conference and are a much better team at home - where they’ve gone 35-6 SU on the year. They have the best point differential at home in the league, outscoring visiting teams by 10.6 per game. The Grizz also have the league’s second best defensive rating. LeBron is a somewhat shocking 3-14 SU on the road in Game 1’s in his career. Jaren Jackson Jr will need to stay out of foul trouble and Ja Morant will need to hit his threes, but I believe the Lakers are overvalued coming into this best of seven series. Lay the points. 10* |
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04-15-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is roughly a 2/1 favorite to advance to the second round, but I think the Cavaliers may have more trouble with the Knicks than anticipated. The Cavs’ 51-31 SU record was the franchise’s best in a non-LeBron James season in 30 years. But they really benefited from a 7-0 record in overtime games and their net efficiency is a little misleading due to the fact they typically blew out the bad teams. Against opponents with a .500 or better record, the Cavs have been a losing straight up proposition this season. The Knicks also had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, which includes a 3-1 SU/ATS record vs. Cleveland. Julius Randle is a question mark for Game 1 but so is Cleveland’s Isaac Okoro. Monitor their statuses, but regardless I’m taking NY plus the points for Game 1. While starters are called upon more come playoff time, it should be pointed out the Knicks’ bench really dominated their Cavaliers’ counterparts in the four regular season meetings. The Knicks also enjoyed a big edge in offensive rebounding in those games. 10* |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road. The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight. In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games. Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10* |
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04-09-23 | Pelicans v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
This is one of the more meaningful games on the NBA slate Sunday. We know both New Orleans and Minnesota will be in the postseason, but it’s just a matter of seeding at this point. New Orleans can finish anywhere between 5th and 9th, which is a huge range of outcomes, while Minnesota will be either 8th or 9th. Finishing 8th instead of 9th has its advantages as that would be the T’wolves would need to win just once, rather than twice, in the play-in tournament. New Orleans will also be motivated, especially by the prospect of avoiding the play-in altogether. But the Pelicans are just 15-25 SU on the road and I just don’t trust them as a small underdog in this spot. Earlier this season, these teams split a pair of games in New Orleans. Minnesota won the more recent game 111-102 after losing the first meeting by just a single point. Yes, the Timberwolves played yesterday. But no starter exceeded 30 minutes and they put up a season-high 151 points on lowly San Antonio. New Orleans has also been pretty bad against teams with winning records. They are just 15-28 SU and 15-27-1 ATS. Expect Minnesota, at home, to step up in the biggest game of the year. 10* |
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04-08-23 | Blazers v. Clippers -16.5 | Top | 125-136 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
I cashed with the Clippers earlier in the week as they beat the Lakers 125-118, a game which the Clips actually closed as a 1-point underdog (after opening -3.5) due to LeBron James and Anthony Davis both deciding to suit up for the other side. The Clippers still need wins, however. We now know that they’ll be in the playoffs, but it remains unclear if they’ll be a top six seed or forced to be in the play-in tournament. By winning these last two games (they close Sunday @ Phoenix), they’d guarantee themselves a top six spot (can finish as high as fifth). Clearly, the Clippers should have no problem winning at home Saturday against an unmotivated Portland team that has lost 14 of its last 16 games. The Blazers have been surprisingly competitive on their current road trip, but four of their last seven losses overall have been by 24 or more points. The Clips won 117-102 at Portland last month when the Blazers were far healthier. As of press time, the injury list for Portland contains 14 names, Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons among them. John Butler, Jeenathan Williams, Drew Eubanks, Skylar Mays and Trendon Watford was Portland’s starting five on Thursday. "These guys don't even know each other, to be honest with you," said coach Chauncey Billups. Sounds bad. 10* |
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04-07-23 | Grizzlies -7 v. Bucks | Top | 137-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Milwaukee has already clinched the 1-seed in the Eastern Conference, so their work is done for the regular season. Memphis still needs one more win to clinch the 2-seed in the Western Conference, so I’ll bet accordingly here as the Bucks figure to rest most, if not all, of their key players. Despite resting some key players, including Ja Morant, the Grizzlies took New Orleans to overtime the other night, eventually losing 138-131. Jaren Jackson had 40 points. Morant, Luke Kennard and Xavier Tillman are NOT on the injury list for tonight, so expect the Grizz to be at closer to full strength. Back in December, Memphis destroyed Milwaukee 142-101. When they are an underdog, the Bucks are 4-11 SU, 4-10-1 ATS this season. They’ve lost those games by an average of more than 10 points. This boils down to simple motivation. Memphis wants to win. Milwaukee doesn’t care. Yes, the line is inflated, but that shouldn’t matter with the lineup the Bucks are likely to trot out tonight. 8* |
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04-06-23 | Blazers v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 127-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Portland comes in at 33-46 on the year while San Antonio (20-59) is already guaranteed a bottom three record in the league. So the teams are just playing for pride in what is seemingly an “unattractive” matchup on Thursday’s NBA slate. Note this game is not being played in San Antonio, but rather in Austin at the Moody Center, which is the home of the Texas Longhorns. However, despite the lack of stakes and true home court advantage, the Spurs are the play here. Portland comes into this game with one of the more absurd injury reports you’ll ever see. Damian Lillard has already been shut down for the season. Three other starters (Grant, Nurkic, Simons) all missed Tuesday’s loss to the Grizzlies. Shaedon Sharpe, who has scored 20 or more points in seven of the last eight games, is listed as questionable for tonight. San Antonio also has a lengthy injury list. But I still see them winning this game with room to spare. Going back to March 10th, they actually have double the number of wins (4) compared to the Blazers (2). The Spurs just played three of the top four teams in the West, all on the road, so those results really have no bearing on my read here. (It should be noted they did win at Sacramento as 16-point underdogs though). This will be just the third time all year that the Spurs come in as the favorite. They are 2-0 SU/ATS the previous two instances, winning those games by an average of 15 points/game. 10* |
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04-05-23 | Lakers v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 118-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This would appear to be a tremendous spot to hammer the Clippers, who have been off for three days while the Lakers are coming off an overtime win last night. While not a true road game for the Lakers, they did just play four road games in the last six days and may have little in the tank here. With a 1:43 left to go in regulation last night, the Lakers appeared poised to be well on their way to a fourth straight win. They were up 10, but shockingly fell apart down the stretch against a Jazz team that was without three starters. Eventually, the Lakers got it done, winning 135-133 thanks to LeBron James. But those extra five minutes of action were totally needless and could end up costing them big time tonight. Furthermore, you’ve got to consider that the Clippers are 10-0 SU and 9-1 against the spread in the previous 10 meetings with the Lakers. Off the three-day break, the Clippers should come out angry as they’ve lost two straight games. They are now tied with the Lakers for the coveted sixth seed in the Western Conference. Obviously, both teams want to finish in the top six so that they don’t have to do the play-in tournament. The Clippers are 4-1 SU/ATS playing with three or more days rest this season. I can’t believe this spread is so low, considering how advantageous the situation seems to be for the “home team.” Lay it. 10* |
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04-02-23 | Suns v. Thunder +5 | Top | 128-118 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
On a four-game win streak, Phoenix seems to have solidified itself as a top four team in the Western Conference. They are fully healthy now with Kevin Durant and Deandre Ayton back in the lineup. Sunday they head to Oklahoma City to face a Thunder team in desperate need of a win. OKC is still holding onto that last spot for the play-in tournament, but it’s been a poor stretch with the team just 2-4 SU/0-5-1 ATS over its last six games. Even with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returning Friday, they suffered a head-scratching 121-117 defeat at Indiana as 5.5-point favorites. Going just 1-2 SU against the three worst teams in the Eastern Conference (Charlotte, Detroit, Indiana) isn’t a great sign, but I like the Thunder to bounce back here. They’ve got more to play for and are now back in their more comfortable role of underdog (31-19 ATS when taking points this season). Phoenix is just 16-23 SU on the road. They lost their only previous visit of the season to OKC, just last month, although it should be pointed out they were playing shorthanded at the time. Keep in mind that the Thunder didn’t have SGA in the two games prior to losing to Indiana. Take the points here. 10* |
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03-31-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -4.5 | Top | 130-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
This is a likely first round playoff series as the 4th place Cavs (48-29) take on the 5th place Knicks (44-33). New York has won two of the three prior meetings, but all of those were at least two months ago. Cleveland has been an excellent home team all season (30-8 SU) not to mention they own the league’s second best overall point differential this season (trailing only Boston). They are #1 in defensive efficiency as well. It would be hard to argue the Cavs aren’t the favorite to win a first round series, against the Knicks or anyone outside the current top three in the East. The Knicks are just 5-6 SU/ATS over their previous 11 games, though they have won the last two, beating Houston and Miami. But both of those victories came at home. They’ve lost two in a row on the road, falling at Miami and Orlando. The Cavs have already clinched a playoff berth and would lock up a top four seed with a win tonight. The Knicks would clinch a playoff spot with a win here, but unfortunately for them, they’ll be without Julius Randle. That is a significant loss as Randle is averaging 25.1 points, 10.0 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game Cleveland may be without some key pieces as well (Allen, Okoro), but being at home and wanting to wash away the bad taste of Wednesday’s loss in Atlanta should have them properly motivated in this one. The Cavs are 10-4-1 ATS L15 off a SU loss. 10* |
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03-29-23 | Wolves v. Suns -6 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
Barring an unforeseen setback, Kevin Durant is set to make his return to the Suns lineup on Wednesday. The team has gone 4-6 SU with Durant out of the lineup, but things have been trending up with two straight wins. I was on the Suns (-6.5) Monday as they beat the Jazz 117-103 on the road. Deandre Ayton returned to the lineup for that game and scored 14 points. So this team is finally at full strength. Phoenix is 4th in the West right now with a 40-35 record. Lurking not far behind in 6th is Minnesota. The Timberwolves are 39-37 following four straight wins, all of those coming by six points or less. Karl-Anthony Towns sat out the T’wolves’ 119-115 win at Sacramento Monday due to injury management. But even with his impending return for this game, I don’t like the spot for the visitors. It will be their third road game in four nights and some of these recent victories, such as the one at Golden State Sunday were a little fortunate. Minnesota still has a negative scoring differential this year. That’s a sign that they are unlikely to hold onto a top six spot. Four teams below them in the standings have better YTD point differentials. Having Durant, Ayton, Devin Booker and Chris Paul all in the starting lineup makes Phoenix one of the top teams in the league. Though this number has already been steamed up, I like the Suns minus the points. They’ve averaged 120 points over the last five games and should have their way with a Minnesota defense that is allowing 121.7 points over its last six games. 10* |
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03-27-23 | Suns -6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 117-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The Suns snapped a seven-game ATS losing streak their last time out, beating the Philadelphia 76ers 125-105 as a 2.5-point favorite. It was also just the second SU win for Phoenix over an eight-game stretch. Having been playing without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant, the team is currently 4th in the West. But they’ve got six teams behind them within 2.5 games. The good news is Ayton is expected to take the floor tonight for the Suns as they visit a Jazz team that is even less healthy. Utah’s three leading scorers - Markkanen, Clarkson and Sexton - all missed Saturday when the team lost for the third straight time, 121-113 to Sacramento as 9.5-point underdogs. The Jazz have fallen back into 12th place in the conference, meaning they’d be out of the playoffs. You have to remember that back at the start of the season, very little was expected from this team. They had one of the lowest season win totals coming into 2022-23. Utah has definitely overachieved, but shorthanded, they can’t match up with Phoenix here. Devin Booker went for 29 against Philly while Bismack Biyombo had 17 points, 13 rebounds and five blocks. Before losing at Sacramento, the Jazz lost back to back home games - one to Portland (Blazers’ only win in forever) and one to Milwaukee (gave up 144 points). 8* |
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03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | Top | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Denver returns home for a huge showdown with Milwaukee Saturday night. These are the top teams in each conference, Milwaukee is 52-30 and has a 2.5-game edge in the East while Denver 49-24 with a three-game edge in the West. The Nuggets have had two days off. They finished their road trip 3-2 SU/ATS after winning at Brooklyn and Washington. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is in the second night of a back to back after destroying Utah last night on the road. You can throw out the 107-99 win Milwaukee had against Denver back in January. The Nuggets rested most of their key guys in that game. Denver is 30-6 SU at home and outscoring teams here by about 10.5 PPG. I know it’s scary to fade a Bucks team that is 24-3 SU its last 27 games and 9-1 SU/9-0-1 ATS in the second night of a back to back. But playing at altitude without rest is a tough proposition, even if starters were able to rest in the 4Q last night. 10* |
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03-24-23 | Suns v. Kings -3.5 | Top | 127-135 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Phoenix is struggling mightily right now as over the last six games they are just 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS. They are without both DeAndre Ayton and Kevin Durant heading into Sacramento Friday night. A big problem for the Suns right now is free throw disparity. They simply are not getting to the line. The last time they attempted more FTs than their opponent was 2/26. This six-game ATS slide began with a 128-119 home loss to Sacramento (as four-point favorites). Ayton had 22 points and 12 rebounds in that game. The Kings are looking to bounce back from back to back losses to Utah and Boston. Prior to those losses, the team had won seven of eight. They gave up 132 to the Celtics, but are 5-1 ATS this season after allowing 130+ in the previous game. This is a key game in the Western Conference playoff picture. I just think it sets up well for the Kings, who are at home and clearly healthier than the Suns right now. 10* |
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03-22-23 | Blazers +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
Both Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant have been ruled out here for Portland, but Utah may be without some key pieces as well with Lori Markkanen having missed the last game and Jordan Clarkson still banged up. So I’m willing to take the Blazers plus the points in what is essentially a must win for them. Portland comes into tonight trailing Utah by four games in the race for the last play-in spot. The Blazers have lost six in a row, failing to cover the last four, to fall back in the playoff chase. Meanwhile, the Jazz are trending in the other direction with six straight covers and winning four of their last five straight up. But I still don’t see that much of a difference between these two Northwest Division clubs. Utah has been great as a dog this season, but they are only 12-19 ATS when favored. Having the seventh worst defensive rating in the league is also not ideal when the Jazz are laying points. The Blazers have won the previous two meetings and have shot 47% or better against the Jazz all three times they’ve faced them in 2022-23. The one loss came by only five points. Damian Lillard scored 60 the last time they played. With Milwaukee coming to town Friday, Utah may be looking past Portland. I just think the Jazz are due to “lay an egg” this evening. The only two times since the All Star Break where Utah has been asked to lay more than a point both came against San Antonio and they lost one of those games. Take the points. 10* |
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03-21-23 | Spurs v. Pelicans -11.5 | Top | 84-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
This is a spot where the Pelicans should absolutely roll. San Antonio is the worst team in the league and winning is not in their best interest at this point. The Spurs did win Sunday, 126-118 at home against Atlanta. However, I thought that was a phony result as they not only erased a 24-point deficit, but also were fortunate to go 14 of 28 from three while the Hawks were just 5 of 22. The Spurs main focus at this point should be to lose as many games as possible and thus better their chances in the Draft Lottery. They have the worst point differential in the league and are being outscored by 13 points/game on the road. New Orleans needs this game after only managing a split with another lowly team, Houston. The Pelicans are currently 12th in the Western Conference, but just one game back of the final play-in spot. Having a positive YTD point differential tells me this team is better than its 34-37 SU record. The Pelicans have already beaten the Spurs three times this season, putting up 129, 117 and 126 points. They are 22-13 SU at home. The Spurs have covered only 5 of 23 road games with a total of 230 or higher. 10* |
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03-20-23 | Kings v. Jazz +5 | Top | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
Utah has now covered five in a row, though they had to come back from down 19 on Saturday to stun Boston 118-117 (as 4.5 point pups) here at home. Nevertheless, oddsmakers continue to not give this Jazz team the respect it deserves considering a phenomenal 26-10 ATS mark as an underdog, which is best in the league. Speaking of a team that doesn’t get enough respect, Sacramento is tied for 2nd in the West (with Memphis) at 43-27 SU. The Kings are well-positioned to snap the longest active playoff drought in the four major North American sports. They last made the playoffs in the 2005-2006 season. But while the Kings come into Monday on a hot 6-1 SU/ATS run, this is not a great spot for them as it will be their fourth road game in the last six days. They’ve won each of the previous three, but two of those were by five points or less. Speaking of close games, these teams have already met twice this year and while the Kings are 2-0 straight up against the Jazz, those two wins were by a total of three points. Both were decided in the closing seconds. Sacramento shot almost 56% from the floor against Washington on Saturday, which included 22 of 37 from three. Don’t expect them to repeat those numbers here. This is too many points to lay to a competent team at the end of a road trip. 10* |
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03-18-23 | Heat v. Bulls +3 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
The Bulls have righted the ship a bit with three wins in the last four games. They are 3-1 ATS in that same stretch. Previously, they’d really struggled ATS, covering just 2 of 12 games. Chicago comes into Saturday in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. That’s obviously the last play-in spot. But it’s a tight lead with Indiana only one-half game back. The Bulls really need this one. Miami is 7th in the East and barring some late collapse will make the playoffs, or at least the play-in round. But what I find interesting is that Chicago has the better YTD point differential of these two teams. The Heat have been real money-burners when favored this season, going 15-32 ATS. They are just 4-15 ATS their last 19 games overall. Bottom line is I don’t think the Heat should be favored here. Take the points. 10* |
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03-14-23 | Bucks v. Suns +2 | Top | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
I went against the Suns last night and that was a wise decision as they got blown out of the water in Golden State, losing 123-112. Phoenix found itself down 43-21 at the end of the first quarter, so it was pretty much over early. But credit them for keeping things respectable over the final three quarters.
Tonight it’s back home for the Suns against the hottest team in the league, that being the Bucks. Since everyone just saw the Suns get blown out on national TV, my assumption is that the Bucks will take money in this matchup.
It’s also the second night of a back to back, the third game in four nights and Kevin Durant is still injured. But be aware that this Phoenix team is much better at home (22-11) than they are on the road (15-20).
But Milwaukee is also in the second night of a back to back and may also be shorthanded. Khris Middleton is likely to be rested and Brook Lopez could be suspended after a late ejection in last night’s 133-124 win at Sacramento. The Bucks shot 58% from the floor last night and got 46 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo. Don’t look for those kind of numbers here. This is a great value on Phoenix getting points at home. 10* |