Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-25-24 | Patriots v. Commanders +7 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
At 8:00pm ET, my Sunday Hook N Ladder selection is on the Washington Commanders. When I played on Las Vegas a couple of days ago, I said this: "A large line move is presenting us with excellent value with Las Vegas. The move is a result of Shanahan and the 49ers stating that they will play some of their starters. Just because the starters will play some doesn't mean that they'll be in there the entire way. Last year in the final Week 3 preseason game, Shanahan gave Purdy and the starters some run. They forced a 3-and-out and then Purdy scored a touchdown on a 9-play drive. They got outscored 23-6 the rest of the way though, losing 23-12. I want the points." The 49ers did get off to an early lead but Vegas came back and the game finish tied. This game is a similar in that there's been a large line move. We're now getting value with the home underdog Commanders. Even if New England does get an early lead and that's far from a sure thing, Washington will fight the entire way. Just like the Patriots, they'd like something to build on for the start of the season. I want the points. Play on Washington |
|||||||
08-23-24 | 49ers v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 24-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:00pm ET, my #1 NFLX GOW is on the Las Vegas Raiders. A large line move is presenting us with excellent value with Las Vegas. The move is a result of Shanahan and the 49ers stating that they will play some of their starters. Just because the starters will play some doesn't mean that they'll be in there the entire way. Last year in the final Week 3 preseason game, Shanahan gave Purdy and the starters some run. They forced a 3-and-out and then Purdy scored a touchdown on a 9-play drive. They got outscored 23-6 the rest of the way though, losing 23-12. I want the points. Play on Las Vegas |
|||||||
08-22-24 | Colts -5 v. Bengals | Top | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 76 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:00pm ET, my AFC GOW is on the Indianapolis Colts. None of their starters played Saturday night in the team's preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals, but the rest of the Colts rose to the occasion to beat the Cardinals 21-13. That performance by the backups will serve the Colts well on Thursday. The Bengals will be playing their backups. They lost to Washington in Week 3 of last preseason. The Colts were also in action on Thursday night in Week 3 last preseason. They went on the road and defeated the Eagles 27-13. They racked up 393 yards in what was a fairly dominant victory. They will go on the road and close out the 2024 preseason with another big win. Play on Indianapolis. |
|||||||
08-17-24 | Jets v. Panthers +4 | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 124 h 36 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my NFLX GOY is on Carolina. The Panthers need wins where they can get them. They lost their preseason opener 17-3 against New England. That was against a New England team which was anxious to get a victory. Carolina didn't take that game too seriously as most of the starters didn't play. Having taken some criticism for that decision, the Panthers should now be the more motivated squad. Remember, the preseason team which wants it more is usually the team which covers the spread. Giving most of the backups a chance to start and get lots of reps last week should serve them well. We won with the Jets in their victory over the Commanders. Off that victory, they've got nothing to prove or to gain with a preseason win over one of the worst teams in the opposite conference. Always happen to grab points in a game where I expect the underdog to win outright. Play on Carolina. |
|||||||
08-11-24 | Broncos v. Colts -1.5 | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
At 1:00pm ET, my NFL Network Flea-Flicker is on the Indianapolis Colts. Yesterday we won with an AFC South team hosting an AFC West team. This afternoon, we will do so again. Both clubs will give their starters some time. Coach Shane Steichen said this about his quarterback Anthony Richardson: "He got some experience last year with the games he played in. We obviously had a good offseason and training camp's been good so far, so I'll be excited to see him out there." The Broncos have a QB battle (Stidham expected to start today) but I prefer the Colts rotation. After Richardson's short stint, the Colts have backup Joe Flacco and third-string Sam Ehlinger. The home team will take this one. Play on Indianapolis. |
|||||||
08-10-24 | Commanders v. Jets +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
At 12 ET, my selection is on the NY Jets. Getting points with the better team is rarely a bad thing, even in preseason. Much of the attention will be placed on Washington QB Daniels, the 2nd overall pick. He'll start for the Commanders. Aaron Rodgers won't play but the Jets still have an edge inexperience at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor will get the start. Taylor has been in the league for 13 years. He's a quality backup and he's going to be ready to go. The Jets starters won't see much time but Washington's starters won't either. The Jets have more quality depth at many positions. I've got them winning this game outright. Play on New York. |
|||||||
08-08-24 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:00pm ET, my NFC NFLX GOY is on the New York Giants. The Lions were a bad team for many years. They needed to take wins anywhere and any way that they could get them. Things have changed. The Lions are now a good team. They easily won the NFC North last year and they're favored to win the division again this year. Now that they've become a good team, winning a Week 1 preseason road game takes on less importance. The Giants are in a different position. They were 6-11 last year and they are projected to finish last in the NFC East this season. They are now a team which could use wins any way that they can get them. They don't need to give the home fans a reason to start piling on them already. The Giants will take this game more seriously and will win and cover the spread. Play on New York. |
|||||||
08-25-22 | 49ers -3.5 v. Texans | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
2022 likely won't be the Texans' year and in spite of their success in preseason, we will start to see that in their third preseason game. It will likely be starters vs starters for a good part of the game. Look for Trey Lance to come out like gangbusters. With a good run in practice and a brief but successful appearance in the preseason, the likely 49ers' heir-apparent and the 49ers' offense still have much to prove and the star-power to prove it with. In spite of the wins, Mills and the Texans' offense has not looked steady or ready. They are not a match against the 49ers defense and will struggle to move the ball. The Texans' defense has looked solid vs rookies and 2nd stringers in the first two games, but this game will be more of front line conditions. 3.5 points is just not enough against the super-motivated 49ers. Take San Francisco to win and cover. 8*! |
|||||||
08-20-22 | Broncos v. Bills -6.5 | Top | 15-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Some teams put more emphasis on a competitive preseason. For the Broncos in week two, we will apparently not see Russell Wilson or any of the other starters participate. We will see the Bills treat this game competitively, including Josh Allen. The word is the starters will play "a healthy amount". The Bills have continuity on offense this year, and who better to scrimmage against than the Bill's reworked defense including Von MIller.. No Wilson, second stringers, and a new coaching staff and offense for the Broncos vs a healthy and focused Bills team. Take Buffalo to win and cover. |
|||||||
08-19-22 | Panthers v. Patriots -4.5 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
The 1-0 Panthers nearly blew their first game and were outscored badly in the 4th quarter last week. The Panthers have injuries to deal with and are rumored not to be playing their starters, including QBs, in week two. There has been bad blood between these two teams in joint practices, so play on the field may be more intense than one might expect. The Patriots, 0-1 in the preseason likely will play their starters today, including Jones to some degree. It would be unlike Belichick not to take today’s game seriously, so look much more intensity after a loss last week. Expect to see almost a full Patriots complement on defense, bad news for the Panthers’ back-ups and youngsters . The Patriots are the favorite today: take them to win and cover against an in-flux Panthers lineup. 7* |
|||||||
08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks -3 | 27-11 | Loss | -130 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Neither the Bears nor the Seahawks are expected to contend this season, so what can we expect in their preseason match-up? Even though one of the QB wannabees is out for Seattle on Thursday, I still expect another offense-heavy game as the Seahawks look to continue to resolve the quarterback question. For the Bears, it seems that Fields is the heir-apparent, and we may not see much of him yet. We didn’t see much offense from the Bears last week. In spite of a win against KC , they didn’t score until the second half, when it appeared that the Chiefs were very much just going through the motions. The Seahawks gave up a ton of yards in their last game so hopefully some defensive issues were worked on over the week. The Bears defense this year may very likely be just a shadow of its former glory. This is a very new coaching staff for the Bears, and I expect all systems are still a work in progress. Seattle is favored this week, and I am playing the favorite. I think Thursday’s game is more meaningful to Seattle, and that there will be opportunities to score some points against an unbaked Bears squad. Take Seattle to win and cover. |
|||||||
08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints It's great to have some Monday night football. Much of the buzz around tonight's game surrounds Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Exciting, yes. Keep in mind that the #1 pick will be facing a formidable Saints defense though. New Orleans ranked in the top five of most defensive categories last year. Lawrence should get the Week 1 start for Jacksonville. The Saints have a QB controversy of their own though. Hill and Winston both have their eyes on the job. Both are going to be going all out tonight. Expect them to enjoy success on offense. The Saints turned the ball over six times in Week 1. That's not going to happen again. Peyton will make sure of it. He's not going to want Trevor Lawrence and Urban Meyer to stroll into his team's home and beat them either. Preseason or not. The number is reasonable. I'm laying the points with the Saints on Monday night. |
|||||||
08-29-19 | Titans v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 19-15 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team will start any of its starters tonight. So that means that the home field advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in my opinion. Tennessee was 0-4 SU/ATS last year and it’s 2-9 SU/ATS in the preseason dating back to 2017. The pick: Chicago comes in off a win over Indianapolis last weekend, erasing a 17-7 deficit by scoring 20 straight points. Keep your eyes on kick Eddy Pineiro, who had three extra points and two FG’s in the victory. I’m banking on Chicago’s backups carrying over that Week 3 momentum. Lay the points. Chicago Bears 10* play |
|||||||
08-19-19 | 49ers +1.5 v. Broncos | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This will be Denver’s third preseason game, as it played in the Hall of Fame Game as well. The Broncos lost four straight to end the regular season last year and they have high hopes with veteran QB Joe Flacco. Denver fell in Seattle last week and Flacco saw limited time in that one. He should see a bit more here, but the veteran will of course be saved for the official Week 3 preseason contest. The pick: San Francisco was just 4-12 in 2018 and it’ll be expecting big things from QB Jimmy Garappolo. But the 49ers’ defense was impressive in its Week 1, 17-9 win over the Cowboys. Backup San Fran QB CJ Beathard had a TD pass in the victory. With Denver’s starting defense seeing limited time, I believe Beathard is a difference maker in this one tonight. Grab as many points as you can. 10* COACH’S CLINIC on the San Francisco 49ers. |
|||||||
08-18-19 | Seahawks +3 v. Vikings | Top | 19-25 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes rolled to a big 34-25 road victory in New Orleans, but I believe they’ll have a much more difficult time here vs. the hard-hitting Seahawks. Seattle enters off a 22-14 home win over Denver. Seattle was 10-6 in the regular season last year, but 0-4 in the preseason. That included a 21-20 loss to these very Vikings. Can anyone say “revenge” spot? The pick: The Vikes offense looked great against a terrible Saints secondary, but Seattle used six of its 11 draft picks on the defensive side of the ball and it just held Denver to 291 total yards. Outright victory?! Very possible of course, but in the end I’m grabbing the points. Seattle Seahawks 10* play |
|||||||
08-09-19 | Bucs v. Steelers -1.5 | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have gone through significant changes in the off-season. Tampa Bay has a new coach in Bruce Arians. The Steelers move forward without RB Le’Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. I’ll point out though that the Bucs haven’t finished a preseason above .500 since going 3-1 in 2008, while Pittsburgh hasn’t lost a preseason since going 1-3 in 2016. The pick: The Bucs were just 5-11 last year, while Pittsburgh was a subpar 9-6-1 (for its lofty standards year in and year out.) With both team’s backup’s seeing the majority of time today, I think the advantage falls to the home side, who rides the wave of emotion. The Steelers compete in the preseason and I expect that trend to continue to open 2019. Lay the points. Pittsburgh Steelers 8* play |
|||||||
08-01-19 | Broncos -3 v. Falcons | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: There’s no more meaningless game of the entire year than the first pre-season game. That said, this is the coaching debut of Broncos’ Vic Fangio and because of that, I believe he’s going to be out to win tonight. Fagio was the defensive coordinator of the Bears’ top-ranked defense in 2018. Joe Flacco likely won’t see much or any time for Denver, meaning that rookie Drew Lock from Missouri will be given the green light. The pick: Atlanta is just 5-11 in the preseason under head coach Dan Quinn. The Falcons still have more questions than answers after a 7-9 season and I think the Falcons are going to get “out-coached” in Week 1 (note that ATL star receiver Julio Jones is out for the preseason with a foot injury.) I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout in Fangio’s debut. Denver Broncos 10* play |
|||||||
08-30-18 | Dolphins v. Falcons | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -107 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 0-3 as we head into the final week of the preseason. Does either even care what happens in Week 4? Probably not. So where’s the advantage? For this meaningless contest, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Miami lost 27-10 to Baltimore last week, while Atlanta fell 17-6 to the Jags. The teams: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill looked decent last week, going 11 of 16 for 115 yards and a touchdown. Backup Brock Osweiler though struggled, going for 23 yards and one interception. With Tannehill shelved in Week 4, the battle between Osweiler and David Fales continues (Fales has been horrible as well with a 0:2 TD/INT through three games.) Atlanta struggled against the Jags’ aggressive defensive attack last week. Matt Ryan was just 5 of 12 for 57 yards. Ryan won’t be suiting up today, meaning Matt Schaub will see the majority of time under center. So far Schaub is 20 of 26 for 194 yards and a TD in the preseason. The pick: Note that this is a revenge game of sorts after the Fish bested the Falcons 20-17 last October. I think Schaub continues his decent preseason and I look for Atlanta to find a way to get the job done for the home town crowd at the end of the night. Lay the points.
|
|||||||
08-30-18 | Browns v. Lions +2 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is 1-2 so far in the preseason, while Cleveland is 2-1. I think the Browns simply go through the motions today though as they look ahead to Week 1. Conversely, I believe the Lions will be looking for a little more momentum as they head into the Regular season and as such, I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover in front of the home town crowd. The teams: The Browns come in off a very satisfying win over the defending champion Eagles at home in Week 3. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Baker Mayfield will see the majority of snaps today. Last week he was 8 of 12 for 76 yards, while RB Nick Chubb added 46 rushing yards. Matt Stafford won’t be suiting up for Detroit, meaning Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock will continue to battle it out for the official No. 1 backup QB spot. Cassel and Rudock though looked great in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win, combining to go 16 of 23 for 118 yards and two touchdowns. The pick: As mentioned off the top, I think Cleveland is already “looking ahead” to the “real thing.” The Lions will look to take advantage and send the home side crowd home happy on Thursday night. Lay the points. |
|||||||
08-24-18 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I simply feel that the Seahawks are going to be the “hungrier” team tonight. The Hawks are 0-2 in the preseason so far, while Minnesota is 1-1. The teams: Seattle fell 19-17 to Indianapolis in Week 1 and then lost 24-14 at LA last week. Russell Wilson has been decent in his limited time so far in the preseason with 236 yards and a TD, while the other offensive standout is David Moore, who has 106 receiving yards on four catches. The defense was supposed to be a weak point for the Hawks this year, but so far it’s been decent by allowing 293.5 YPG, including only 167.5 through the air. Minnesota beat Denver 42-28 in Week 1, before then taking a step back in last week’s 14-10 loss to the Jaguars. The Vikes offense struggled against the Jags backup defensive unit and I think it’ll have its hands full with this “under the radar” Hawks defense as well. Note that QB Kirk Cousins was just 3 of 8 for 12 yards. Minnesota’s defense looked sharp and it’ll be a strength of the team this year for sure. The pick: Seattle’s first two weeks of the preseason have been building to this moment and I think the Hawks come to play today. Cousins and the offense struggled last week for the Vikings and it’s not going to get any easier facing Seattle’s defensive starters. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I am grabbing as many points as I can.
|
|||||||
08-24-18 | Giants +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Week 3 of the NFL Preseason sees the Giants hit the road to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Giants. The teams: The Giants come in with a ton of momentum after knocking off the Lions 30-17 in Week 2. And that was with Eli Manning, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. sitting on the sidelines. QB Davis Webb was 14 of 20 for 140 yards and a TD. Even without Barkley in the backfield the Giants’ run game looked sharp, with Wayne Gallman, Kyle Lauletta and Robert Martin all with a rushing touchdown. The Jets are 1-1 in the preseason, most recently coming off a disheartening 15-13 road loss at Washington. QB Sam Darnold was mediocre by going 8 of 11 for 61 yards and an INT. Backup Teddy Bridgewater was 17 of 23 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and an INT. The pick: The Giants looked good with their offensive stars on the sideline last week, but now Manning, Barkley and Odell are expected to see some snaps in Week 3. And despite Bridgewater clearly outplaying Darnold last week, the Jets are expected to instead give the rookie considerable time under center tonight. I like the veteran players of the Giants to step up early and believe that’ll be enough in the end. |
|||||||
08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins -2.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver travels to the Nation’s capital looking for an identity on both sides of the ball. The Redskins have many questions marks as well, but I think Washington’s superior strength at the QB position will prove to be the difference in this Week 3 preseason contest. The teams: Denver enters off a deflating 24-23 loss to the Bears on Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was 5 of 11 for 39 yards. QB Chad Kelly was 7 of 9 for 90 yards and a TD. RB Phillip Lindsay was a bright spot though with 32 yards. Defensively the Broncos looked terrible and I think they’ll have their hands full again here in this difficult venue. Washington comes in with momentum after a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2. Alex Smith was 4 of 6 for 48 yards, while the combination of Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy would go 19 of 27 for 198 yards. The pick: The Broncos have major QB questions. The Redskins don’t. No need to overthink this one in my opinion as I look for the home side to play like the “hungrier” team and to find a way to get the job done in the end. |
|||||||
08-23-18 | Eagles +4 v. Browns | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia is so far 0-2 in the preseason, but I think the defending champs come to play in the Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Most recently the Eagles fell 37-20 on the road in New England in a clear statement game by the Pats. After a Week 1 win, the Browns predictably came back down to Earth in last weekend’s 19-17 loss at home to the Bills. The teams: Nick Foles and Carson Wentz have seen limited time so far in the preseason, but each is expected to see some today for the Eagles. Foles was three off nine for 44 yards last week. A bright spot though was the play of third string QB Nate Sudfeld, who was 22 of 39 for 312 yards, posting three TD’s and one INT. Rookie Dallas Goeddert also impressed as he had three catches for 57 yards and when teamed up with TE Zach Ertz, the Eagles remain one of the top offensive threats in the league. There’s lots to be optimistic about if you’re a Cleveland Browns fan as well though. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield was 7 of 13 for 75 yards last week and the run game posted 164 on the ground, with rookie Nick Chubb leading the way with 53 yards and a TD. The team is now loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Chemistry would seem to be the only thing standing in its way at this point, and I do indeed think it’ll be a contributing detrimental factor working against Cleveland here today as well. The pick: Despite all of the improvements the Browns have made, they still don’t match up well with Eagles and I believe Philadelphia’s depth will in fact be the deciding factor in this Week 3 NFLX preseason contest. Take the points. |
|||||||
08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: After back-to-back victories to open the pre-season and with the all important Week 3 dress rehearsal next weekend, I think the Ravens have a letdown here and get caught “looking ahead” in this meaningless Week 2 Monday Night contest. Indianapolis though will look to carry over its momentum from a 19-17 road victory in Seattle in its first game in front of the home town crowd. The teams: Ravens’ rookie QB Lamer Jackson was 7 of 18 for 119 yards last week, while also rushing for 21. RB Gus Edwards had 58 yards on 12 carries. Baltimore looked sharp defensively against the Rams’ backups, but I think it’ll have a much more difficult time at Lucas Oil Stadium. Colts’ backup QB Jacoby Brissett was 6 of 8 for 35 yards last weekend. Starter Andrew Luck returned and was 6 of 9 for 64 yards. Indianapolis also looked sharp defensively, holding the Seahawks to 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Keep your eyes on Hassan Ridgeway, who had two sacks in the victory. The pick: Baltimore may have won ten straight preseason games and covered in nine of those, but I think that run of excellence comes to an end here. Luck will see some time at home and Brissett continues to excel. I’m banking on the home side figuring it out and getting it done. Play on the Colts. |
|||||||
08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams -3 | Top | 15-19 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off 16-10 home win over Detroit in its opener and I think it goes through the motions today as it gets caught looking ahead to the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” LA on the other hand comes in much more motivated after a humbling 33-7 road loss in Baltimore in Week 1. The teams: Oakland’s offense didn’t look great last week, but it didn’t have to with the defense playing so well. Last year the Raiders were 23rd in the league in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed. Slowing down the Lions’ back-ups at home is one thing, but trying to contain a Rams team which led the league in scoring last year (29.9 PPG) is quite another obviously. The ground game was a positive on offense with 147 total yards. It must be noted that starting QB Jared Goff didn’t play in the Week 1 setback for LA, so I’m reading absolutely nothing into the Rams’ inefficiency on the offensive side of the ball. Brandon Allen and Sean Mannion were decent, but not spectacular. The ground game looked decent with 121 yards. The defense looked horrible and clearly the unit will be looking for a better effort with a few more starters in the line-up this time around. The pick: Connor Cook and EJ Manuel looked decent under center for the Raiders against Detroit, but in my opinion they look poised for a step back in this difficult venue. I’m expecting the Rams to come out much more focused on both sides of the ball in this one and their added motivation proves to the be the difference in my opinion. Lay the points. |
|||||||
08-17-18 | Cardinals v. Saints -3 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with big aspirations collide in Week 2 of the preseason at the Superdome on Friday night. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The teams: Arizona comes in contented after last week’s 24-17 win in which it used a goal line stand as time expired to earn the dramatic victory. QB Josh Rosen was 6 of 13 for 41 yards. Chad Kanoff was 3 of 5 for 66 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is expected to see a couple of snaps, but the Cards will be looking ahead to Week 3 here in my opinion after getting the Week 1 victory under their belts. The Saints come in off a win as well, pulling away for a 24-20 victory over Jacksonville. QB Tom Savage was 10 of 14 for 70 yards. In all three different players scored rushing touchdowns, including starting RB Mark Ingram. New Orleans’ defense looked sharp as well, as Jayrone Elliot led the way with 2.5 the teams six total sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. I like the Saints to take care of business at home. Lay the points. |
|||||||
08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 93 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami opens its NFL preseason with two straight on the road. With the important Week 3 match-up in their first game at home in Week 3, I do expect the Dolphins to simply go through the motions tonight as they get caught looking ahead. The teams: Miami threw everything it had at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and still came up short in the 26-24 setback. David Fales and Brock Osweiler combined to go 18 of 32 for 198 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. Ryan Tannehill went 4 of 6 for 32 yards. The Panthers beat the Bills 28-23 on the road last week and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over into their home opener. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert was 7 of 12 for 93 yards a TD, while Taylor Heinicke was 7 of 9 for 121 yards. Cam Newton looked good in his limited time as well, going 6 of 9 for 84 yards. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Miami is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the short points. |
|||||||
08-17-18 | Chiefs v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams comes in at 0-1 SU/ATS after Week 1. The Falcons will be particularly eager to atone after their 17-0 setback at the Jets last weekend, while the Chiefs fell 17-10 at Houston. The teams: KC QB Patrick Mahomes was five of seven for 33 yards in last week’s loss. The Chiefs would use four QB’s last week and Chad Henne was the only one of them who was able to post a TD. Henne would hit Demarcus Robinson for the major score. The Falcons’ backups looked poor last week, but starters on both sides of the line are expected to see more time in Week 2 at home. Matt Schaub was a bright spot in the setback by going 9 of 9. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Expect a much better effort in Week 2 from The Dirty Birds in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. |
|||||||
08-11-18 | Vikings v. Broncos +1 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX pre-season, I don’t talk about what I think the teams will do over the upcoming campaign, or what they did over the off-season. If you want to get up to date information about that, there are plenty of other better places to do that. I’m here to simply let you know why this team of back-ups and wanna-be’s is going to win this meaningless Week 1 NFLX contest. In Week 2, I’ll touch on what each side did in Week 1. Reasoning: Kirk Cousins comes over to Minnesota, but he’ll see limited to no time here. He’s working under a new offensive co-ordinator anyways, so immediate success seems a stretch at this point to me. The Vikes’ strength last year was on the defensive side, but none of the starters is expected to suit up today. Even though it’s Week 1 of the pre-season, I think this one “means” a lot more to the Broncos. Case Keenum is the new man under center for Denver after a better than expected job in Minnesota. Denver is admittedly a work in process, but this is Week 1 of the pre-season. I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
|||||||
08-10-18 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX season, I don’t give out season previews/predictions or give an update of what team’s did over the offseason. In Week 1 I simply give out a reason on why I think the back-ups and wannabe’s will win this contest. Reasoning: The Lions will be playing backup Jake Rudock in this one. He completed 37 of 56 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and a pick in the pre-season last year. This is a big game for Oakland’s new coach Jon Gruden, who has blown up a lot of his team after last year’s disappointing season. Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four against the Raiders and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright, straight-up upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions. |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Colts +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
incorrectly entered play. please disregard. |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Panthers v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Buffalo has three QB’s who are all fighting for the No. 1 QB position in the preseason (AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen.) Buffalo improved itself on defense in the offseason as well. Carolina has injuries to its defense though including Julius Peppers and Ross Cockrell. Lay the points. |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Steelers +3 v. Eagles | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Philadelphia won the Super Bowl and it’ll be out to prove the pundits wrong that it was a “fluke.” But Pittsburgh has a lot to prove as well this season. This is a big year for both teams, but this is a truly meaningless contest to open the preseason for each. Look for a spirited battle between these two in-state rivals and grab as many points as you can. |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Bears v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: The Bears fought valiantly in the Hall Of Fame Game last Thursday and while they covered for bettors, they came up short in the end. They’ll be feeling pretty good about that effort, but I think the back-to-back road games aren’t doing them any favors this week. The Bengals were a disaster last year and this is a make or break campaign for many involved in the organization. Even though it’s the back-ups and wannabe’s for the most part playing tonight, clearly the team will be out to leave a good impression in front of the home town crowd to kick off the 2018/19 season. Note as well that Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. Lay the points. |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played on Thursday, August 2nd at 8:00 PM EST at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who comes over as the former offensive coordinator of the KC Chiefs. Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in three years and if Joe Flacco can’t step up, surely there’s going to be some major changes upcoming for the Ravens. The teams: We’re going to see a battle for backup QB in Chicago during the preseason between Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray, with Mitchell Trubisky having already secured the starters position. There’s talent at receiver as well in Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. Baltimore used its No. 1 draft pick to grab QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens also have Robert Griffin III as another backup. The Ravens also have a lot of new faces in the receiver position, including Michael Crabtree and Willie Sneed. The defense should be a strength of the team, but don’t expect to see any starters playing on Opening night. The pick: For arguments sakes, let’s call every position on every line on both sides of the ball a “wash” in this game, except at QB, which we’ll look at here subjectively. If this was Trubisky going against Flacco, we’d look at this one differently, but the experience that the Ravens’ backup QB’s bring to the table will turn out to be the difference in my opinion. Daniel and Bray lack experience, while RG III and the gifted Lamar Jackson clearly have the advantage in that department. And for me, that’s the difference make in this matchup. Play on Baltimore. |
|||||||
08-31-17 | Ravens v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens are one of four NFL teams looking to complete a perfect 4-0 preseason, as they head to New Orleans off a 13-9 home win over Buffalo in Week 3 win that gave them a 3-0 SU & ATS record. The Saints are 2-1 SU & ATS, after a 13-0 home win over Houston last Saturday. Both teams are hoping to return to the playoffs in 2017, after going 8-8 (Baltimore) and 7-9 (New Orleans) in 2016. Baltimore: The Ravens are 3-0 despite the fact that Joe Flacco has not taken a snap in the preseason. Ryan Mallett led the team with 58 yards on 8 of 10 passing while Josh Woodrum completed 8 of his 13 pass attempts for 55 yards and a TD in last week's win. Flacco is dealing with a back injury and he and the rest of the starters will sit this one out. Backup QB Ryan Mallett and third-stringer Josh Woodrum will continue to handle duties under center on Thursday. New Orleans: Chase Daniel led the Saints with 108 yards on 9 of 12 passing while Drew Brees completed 11 of 15 for 76 yards in last week's win. It should be noted that with Drew Brees at the helm, New Orleans managed to score only three points while gaining 124 yards against Texans. The pick: In a rare twist, the Saints may actually play some starters in their fourth and final preseason contest. After all, RBs Mark Ingram and Adrian Peterson have not taken the field yet and the offense looked flat in last Saturday’s date with Houston. With that in mind, I'm making the Saints a 10* play. |
|||||||
08-31-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Panthers | Top | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Steelers are 2-1 SU & ATS this preseason and play their final game Thursday night at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte against the Carolina Panthers (also 2-1 SU & ATS). The Steelers advanced to last year's AFC championship game before losing to the Pats, while Carolina followed a 15-1 regular season and Super Bowl appearance in 2015, by laying an egg in 2016 with a 6-10 record. Pittsburgh: Most of Pittsburgh's starters will be rested in an effort to be ready for the team's regular season Week 1 visit to Cleveland (note: Browns are a surprising 3-0 this preseason) but that's not much of a change, considering the Steelers haven’t played their starters much anyway this preseason. Big Ben's backup, Landry Jones, is coming off a game in which he completed 21 of 31 passes and he’ll get majority of the snaps again, with rookie Joshua Dobbs (Tenn.) playing in the fourth quarter Carolina: Cam Newton didn't play all that much last week but the team seems convinced that he is ready to go. However, seeing some good production from backups Derek Anderson and Joe Webb would be a nice 'safety blanket.' Rookie RB Christian McCaffrey has had his moments this preseason and expect him to be a significant contributor to Carolina's offense in 2017. A bigger key could be the fact that Carolina’s patched up offensive line looks to be coming together. The pick: Carolina may go off as the biggest favorite here in Week 4 and I ask why? Pittsburgh has allowed just 14.7 PPG this preseason and Landry and Dobbs are a better QB duo in this contest than Anderson and Webb. Pittsburgh is the deeper team and that makes them an 8* play plus the points in this game. |
|||||||
08-27-17 | 49ers +5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The final game of NFL preseason action goes Sunday night at US Bank Stadium, as the 1-1 San Francisco 49ers meet the 1-1 Minnesota Vikings. The Niners surprised the Chiefs 27-17 in KC in Week 1 but then lost badly at home in Week 2, 33-14 to the Broncos. Minnesota beat the Bills 17-10 in their opener but then fell to the Seahawks last Friday by a score of 20-13. That defeat was just Minnesota's second in 15 preseason game sunder head coach Mike Zimmer. San Francisco: The 49ers finished 2-14 last season and Chip Kelly was fired after just one season,replaced by Kyle Shanahan. Some notable signings in the off-season by the Niners concentrated on an offense which averaged only 19.3 PPG in 2016 (27th). Those signings included WR DeAndre Carter, WR Pierre Garcon, QB Brian Hoyer, FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Aldrich Robinson and RB Tim Hightower. Brian Hoyer is taking over as the new starter with C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley fighting for the backup role. RB Carlos Hyde had a solid 2016 season, rushing for 988 rushing yards while averaging 4.6 YPC. Not sure what to make of the team's defense though, as the 49ers allowed 30.0 PPG in 2016, to rank dead-last in the NFL. Minnesota: The Vikings were an early season surprise in 2016, opening 5-0 but in the end the team finished 8-8 and out of the playoffs. It was quite a collapse and it will be interesting to see how the team responds in 2017.Sam Bradford is the starting QB and Case Keenum was signed to backup Bradford until Teddy Bridgewater returns. A.P. is no longer around but it looks like FSU's Dalvin Cook (rushed for 1765 yards with Florida State in 2016), will be the starter. The offense must improve, after averaging 20.4 PPG (23rd). The Minnesota defense was very good in 2016, giving up an average of just 19.2 PPG (6th). The pick; I noted Minnesota's preseason record under Zimmer at the top but I'm not so sure we can expect more of teh same from the Vikings. Expect to see a heavy dose of first-team starters in this one on both sides and I want all the points I can get in this one. Make San Francisco a 10* play. |
|||||||
08-26-17 | Colts +6 v. Steelers | Top | 19-15 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indianapolis Colts 0-2 (0-2 ATS) visit Heinz Field for a Week 3 preseason contest against the Pittsburgh Steelers 2-0 (2-0 ATS). Indianapolis is coming off a disappointing 8-8 season in 2016 which saw them finish third in the AFC South and the Colts, still playing without QB Andrew Luck, have scored a modest 29 points in their two losses. The Steelers won the AFC North with an 11-5 record in 2016 and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 36-17 to the Patriots. Pittsburgh opened the preseason with a 20-12 win at the NY Giants and followed with a 17-13 home win over the Falcons, the defending NFC champs. Indianapolis: Andrew Luck had shoulder surgery over eight months ago and while reports having him back to throwing the football, Jim Irsay told the Indianapolis Star that there is no guarantee that he will be back in time for the regular season. The Colts have scaled back the playbook for backup Scott Tolzien, who got the start and completed 10 of 14 passes for 70 yards and led his team to a FG in one of his five drives at the helm in last week's loss to the Cowboys. The Colts' lone TD came on a pass from Stephen Morris, who finished 11-for-15 for 111 yards and the score. The Indy D was terrible though, allowing 489 total yards (328 through the air)! Pittsburgh: The Steelers found themselves trailing the Atlanta Falcons 13-3 at halftime last week but rallied in the second half with two TDs to pull out the four-point comeback victory. Rookie QB Josh Dobbs (Tennessee ) got the start for the Steelers, completing 10 of his 19 passes for 70 yards and an interception. However, it was un-drafted free agent QB Bart Houston who would provide the winning touchdown pass. However, Pittsburgh's offense was able to generate just 189 total yards. The pick: Bell has still not reported but Big Ben should see extended playing time, after sitting out last week. Yes, the Steelers are a deep and well-coached unit (nothing new there) but I expect a good effort here from the Colts. Tomlin's an intense coach but after a 2-0 start, what's the big deal about beating the Luck-less 0-2 Colts? Surprise! Make the Colts a 10* play. |
|||||||
08-24-17 | Panthers +1 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars are both 1-1 as the two teams get set to square off in this Week 3 meeting Thursday night at EverBank Field. As most know, Week 3 games are typically called "dress rehearsal" contests. However, Cam Newton has yet to dress for the first two games, as the Panthers are being extra cautious with his shoulder. As for the Jags, they couldn't generate any offense in their 12-8 loss to the Buccaneers last week, and after the game head coach Doug Marrone voiced his displeasure with Blake Bortles. It appears the Jags now have a battle brewing for the starting QB role in the last two weeks of the preseason. Carolina: Head coach Ron Rivera confirmed Tuesday that his star QB will take first snaps against the Jacksonville Jaguars, barring a setback with Newton's surgically repaired shoulder. That said, Newton is only expected to play about eight to 10 snaps against the Jaguars. So far, Derek Anderson (11 of 17 for 164 yards with one TD and one INT) and Joe Webb (12 of 20 for 195 yards with three TDs and one INT) have seen the most work. After a brief appearance by Newton, those two should be competing for the backup role. The Panthers have shown great promise on the offensive side, combining for 54 points in two games, despite no Newton. Jacksonville: Clearly, the Jags are becoming frustrated with Blake Bortles but do they have a Plan B? Chad Henne has had very little success in the NFL, posting 58:63 TD to INT ratio and 75.5 QB rating in his career to-date. As for Brandon Allen, he's in his second season (from Arkansas) and has yet to attempt an NFL regular season pass. The pick: The 'talk' is that moving on from Bortles would breathe life into the entire Jacksonville team from a confidence standpoint. However, I just don't see that considering the options Jacksonville currently has. After scoring 31 points in an upset of the Pats, the Jags 'laid an egg' with an eight-point effort vs. Tampa Bay. This hardly 'feels' like a team ready for a dress rehearsal. I'm making the Panthers a 10* play. |
|||||||
08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Monday Night Football on ESPN at FirstEnergy Stadium, as the 0-1 New York Giants and the 1-0 Cleveland Browns wrap up NFL Week 2 preseason action. The Giants ended a four-year playoff drought in 2016 by finishing 11-5 and earning wild card berth. However, the team's postseason hopes were dashed in a 38-13 loss at Green Bay. The postseason has eluded the Browns for 14 straight years, after they finished 1-15 in 2016. Cleveland has had 13 losing season in that span and hit rock bottom with last year's franchise-worst record. |
|||||||
08-20-17 | Falcons v. Steelers +3 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 11 m | Show |
Atlanta: Matt Ryan saw limited action last week but made the most of it, going 3 for 3 with 32 yards and a TD. RB Devonta Freeman caught that 15-yard TD pass from Ryan but had just one rushing attempt, as did the backfield partner, Tevin Colemn (the two combined for four rushing yards). Simms, who owns just 39 regular season pass attempts in his NFL career (none since 2014), saw the most action at QB (10 of 20 for 104 yards). The Atlanta D had two 'picks' but also allowed two TD passes in the fourth quarter of the three-point loss. Pittsburgh: The Steelers won 20-12 last week but made just 10 FDs and gained a pathetic 226 yards. Fourth-round pick Joshua Dobbs saw the bulk of the game action at QB, going 8 for 15 with 100 yards, a touchdown but also two INTs. Pittsburgh's D led the way to victory, coming up with seven sacks, two takeaways (1 INT & 1 fumble) but consistently were able to stall New York possessions, holding the Giants to four FGs. The pick: Neither team showed much on offense in their respective Week 1 games and it's expected that both teams' starters will not see significant action until the third game of the preseason. That leaves me with the better defensive team which is the Steelers. Make Pittsburgh |
|||||||
08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday features just one NFL preseason contest, the Minnesota Vikings traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks at CenturyLink Field. The Vikings are off a 17-10 Week 1 win at Buffalo, as the team improved to an almost hard to believe 13-1 record in preseason contests under Mike Zimmer. Meanwhile the Seahawks opened their 2017 preseason schedule with a 48-17 pasting over the now-LA Chargers last Sunday, ruining the Chargers "return to LA" (Chargers played the AFL's 1960 season in LA before moving to San Diego in 1961).
Minnesota: Staring QB Sam Bradford saw very little action in Week 1 (5 for 7 for 35 yards) as Case Keenum saw the bulk of the workload and completed 11 of 16 passes for 121 yards. Taylor Heinicke completed three passes and a touchdown but also threw an interception. A.P. is now in New Orleans and second round pick Dalvin Cook (FSU) had five carries for 13 yards but also caught 4 balls out of the backfield for 30 yards. The Minnesota defense was solid, allowing 309 yards of total offense and just 10 points. Minnesota's preseason record under Zimmer is mind-boggling but I'm backing Seattle in this one, after the team's outstanding Week 1 effort. I don't believe Minnesota can match Seattle's 'firepower.' Make the Seahawks a 10* play. |