Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-22-18 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +3.5 | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 7 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (12:20 ET): To say the Tar Heels are a desperate team entering their third game of the season would be putting it mildly. Larry Fedora's team is 0-2 SU and off a bye. You have to remember that it was not the best offseason in Chapel Hill. Fedora has some questionable commenatary on CTE. Then 13 players were suspended for selling Nike gear. The latter has certainly has had more impact than the former, but there's no denying that something is awry w/ this program right now. Was losing the opener at Cal acceptable? Sure, they were seven-point underdogs and that was the final margin (24-17). But a 41-19 loss at East Carolina (as 15-pt chalk!) was a clear step in the WRONG direction. Last week's game vs. UCF had to be cancelled due to Hurricane Florence, so I expect the Tar Heels to come out HIGHLY motivated as a home dog this week. Take the points. Pitt was a home dog itself last week and pulled the outright upset over Georgia Tech. It was a much needed bounce back for Pat Narduzzi's team after getting walloped by Penn State, 51-6, the week prior. This will be the Panthers' first road game of the year and they were just 1-4 SU away from Heinz Field last season. They were slightly outgained by Ga Tech last week, but did lead comfortably (as in 24-6) heading into the 4th quarter. But again, that was at home. It was a yeoman's effort defensively LW holding Ga Tech to five plays or less on six of the first seven drives. But they also got a big break early, thanks to some questionable decision making by Yellow Jackets' HC Paul Johnson, who elected to run a fake punt from his own 28-yard line. It was stuffed and Pitt responded w/ its second TD of the game, thanks to the short field. The game was basically "in the bag" at that point. Since joining the ACC, Pitt has never beaten North Carolina. They are 0-5 SU, though all five losses have been by a TD or less. I do think the bye is huge for North Carolina. Yes, they are still dealing with suspensions plus the issues as a result of Florence. But I suspect Fedora is going to have his players ready for Saturday in an emotional spot. Pitt really delivered w/ its own "back against the wall" last week, but it will be very challenging to duplicate that kind of performance on the road. Consider that the Panthers are just 3-8 ATS when favored the L3 seasons. 8* North Carolina |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Kent State +29 v. Ole Miss | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show |
8* Kent State (12:00 ET): Both of these teams gave up 60+ points to top 10 teams last week. One is now being asked to lay four touchdowns. Obviously, there's a massive talent gap that exists between Kent State and Ole Miss, but consider the former actually hung w/ Penn State for about a half before the inevitable took place. It was actually the second time this year the Golden Flashes have had to play a Big 10 team on the road. They covered the first, at Illinois. While 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs. SEC schools, Kent State is catching Ole Miss at the right time. The Rebels were flat out embarrassed last week, here at home, losing to Alabama 62-7. Make no mistake about it; the Rebels' pysche was severely wounded by that result and they won't be "up" for this game, which comes right in between Bama & LSU. Take the points. Kent State was tied w/ Penn State early on last Saturday, 7-7, midway through the first quarter. It was only 21-10 late in the second when the Nittany Lions tacked on another TD right before halftime. That drive started w/ a long kick return after a Kent State field goal. The second half was all Penn State. Still, this offense is much improved from LY when it averaged just 12.8 PPG, which was second fewest in the country. That's owed to 1st year HC Sean Lewis, who was the former OC at Syracuse at Dino Babers, and that means the offense is going to play "fast." Consider the Ole Miss' defense is giving up 43.3 points and 544 yards per game. Before you go thinking that's heavily skewed by Alabama, consider the Rebels gave up more yards to Southern Illinois (629!) the week prior, not to mention 41 points. Remember that Ole Miss still is facing a bowl ban from the disgraced Huge Freeze era. So motivation is going to be a big question all year w/ this team. I thought HC Matt Luke did an admirable job in guiding this team to a 6-6 record last year (his 1st on the job), but the 2018 version of the Rebels is going to struggle as they figure to be a dog in every SEC game. They still have LA Monroe on the schedule, so this probably won't be their last victory. But it'll be closer than the "experts" think. Consider Ole Miss was down 49-7 at the half (at home) last week. Those thinking it will be an easy bounce back are likely to be disappointed. 8* Kent State |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Navy v. SMU +7 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 41 h 47 m | Show |
8* SMU (12:00 ET): SMU has had to play two very good teams the last two weeks, TCU and Michigan (both ranked in the top 20). For at least a half, the Ponies played both tough. After a long weather delay, they jumped out to a 9-0 lead on TCU. They only trailed 14-12 at the half, but from there it was all Horned Frogs, who scored the game's final 28 points. Keep in mind though that TCU scored three non-offensive TD's in the contest, somewhat robbing SMU of the cover as 23.5-pt dogs. The Mustangs did cover last week, at Michigan, as they were getting 36.5 from the oddsmakers. It was only a 15-pt game early in the 4Q, but still SMU found a way to lose a third straight game by 20 or more. Back as a home dog this week, I like them to cover. Take the points. Navy's last venture as a road favorite did not go well at all as they lost outright to Hawaii, 59-41. They were 13.5-pt chalk in that contest. They've since bounced back w/ a pair of wins over Memphis and Lehigh, but neither was very impressive. The win over Memphis was a come from behind effort that saw the Middies rally from down 21-9 to pick up an outright win as a 6.5-pt home dog. They scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the game-winning one coming w/ just 2:37 left on the clock. Navy was outgained in the contest, but clearly benefited from a +3 TO margin and massive edge in time of possession. There was also a driving rain during the game that played to their strength (running the ball!) on offense. Last week's win came against FCS Lehigh, who turned it over five times. Looking at this week's forecast, it appears as if rain is all but assured. But don't think that means Navy will be able to take advantage again. Yes, SMU has lost to Navy eight straight times, including a 75-31 debacle the last time here in Dallas (two years ago). But last year was a lot closer (SMU lost 43-40 in Annapolis) as the Ponies rallied back from a 34-11 deficit, only to come up just short. One thing to keep an eye on here is the SMU defense, which ranks top 25 nationally in tackles for loss. That's key when facing the triple option. SMU comes in 0-3 SU, so they're a desperate home dog here and when desperate is often the best time to take a home dog. They've actually played three good teams (North Texas too) and a pretty easy case can be made that Navy is the weakest opponent they have faced so far. 8* SMU |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -4 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
10* USC (10:30 ET): If you're into treating teams like stocks, this is a REAL "buy low" spot on Southern Cal. The Trojans have lost B2B games and are laying just a short number in a revenge game. Both losses have come in primetime, national TV games, so the public has certainly soured on them. The USC offense has managed just 17 total points the last two games while averaging 324.5 yards game behind freshman QB JT Daniels. But both of those losses took place on the road. Clay Helton's team has won 12 straight PAC 12 home games and is 25-7 SU their L32. I realize the Washington State defense is seemingly improved, but you have to factor in the opposition when looking at their numbers. USC's defense just held Texas to a 45.5 completion percentage and 3.3 yards per carry. I'll lay the points. So Wazzu is 3-0, both SU and ATS. But they've played Wyoming (who was on a short week), San Jose State (very bad) and Eastern Washington (FCS team). So take this "defensive improvement" w/ a grain of salt. Yes, last year's defense was the best of the Mike Leach era, but they lost an All-American in Hercules Mata'afa. That Wyoming team the Cougars beat has scored a total of just 49 points its last three games and needed a late TD to get by Wofford (FCS team) last week. San Jose State is 0-3 and one of the worst teams in FCS, including a loss to a FCS school (UC Davis). So this will be a considerable step up in class for a Washington State team that has just one win at the Coliseum this millenium. Last year's game saw Washington State beat a Top 5 team for the first time since 1992. It was a 30-27 upset (as four-point dogs) and also on a Friday night. Notable is that USC was down THREE starting offensive linemen for that game and also coming in unbeaten following WINS over Stanford and Texas. This script has totally been flipped this year. The Trojans did lose by 23 last week in Austin, but they were only down 9 when a blocked field goal was returned for a touchdown. Like I said, the defense played well. This is basically a "must win" for Helton, which of course does not guarantee victory, but I think he will and cover comfortably. 10* USC |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Fresno State -2 v. UCLA | Top | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 55 h 54 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It has not been a great return to College Football for Chip Kelly at UCLA. Last week's blowout loss at Oklahoma was to be expected. But considering they barely covered a 30-point spread (scored late TD), that should tell you all you need to know about the current state of this once proud program. There was also the embarrassing showing in the season opener, a 26-17 home loss to Cincinnati where they were favored to win by double digits. That game saw a freshman QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson pressed into duty when grad transfer Wilton Speight (from Michigan) was injured. Speight didn't play against Oklahoma and his status for this Saturday night vs. Fresno State is unclear. But what is clear is that Chip Kelly's team simply is not very good right now. Fresno State was one of the unheralded stories in all of College Football last season. They went from 1-11 SU to 10-4 SU in Jeff Tedford's first season at the helm. They are expected to regress some this year and did lose last week at Minnesota. But that game wasn't decided until the final minutes when a halfback pass resulted in an INT in the endzone. Fresno State even led, on the road, in the fourth quarter. It's a much weaker defense they're going up against this week, one that was horrible at stopping the run last year (worst in the country) and not showing much improvement in that department so far this year (186.5 YPG allowed). Fresno State's inability to run the ball last week (just 87 yds) really hurt them, but they did run for 239 yds in the opener vs. Idaho. Look for better success running the ball in this game, at least compared to last week. With Tedford and Kelly patrolling the respective sidelines, this will at least have the "feel" of a Pac 12 style game when these two used to match up at Cal and Oregon. But it's Tedford who has a team that more closely resembles the "good old days." Kelly has a lot to sort through here in Westwood and seems determined to play a lot of his own recruits, even if they aren't really ready. I anticipate some real "growing pains" w/ this Bruins squad and those thinking an 0-2 home team is a lock to win are being far too optimistic. Fresno State is 19-7 ATS the L3 seasons while UCLA is just 9-18 ATS. Eventually, the Bruins will get better, but it won't be during this game or maybe even this season. 8* Fresno State |
|||||||
09-15-18 | UMass +4.5 v. Florida International | Top | 24-63 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
10* Massachusetts (7:30 ET): This is the third consecutive week UMass is playing on the road and the last two have not gone well. They lost 55-21 at Boston College and then 34-13 at Georgia Southern. But both of those teams are far better than what they face this week, that being Florida International, who is coached by Butch Davis. FIU is off a win last week, as a favorite, against Old Dominion. It was a road game (FIU was favored by three) and a 28-20 final, but they had to rally back from 17 points down and there was a two-hour rain delay that impacted the game. It's hard to credit the weather w/ giving either team an edge, but FIU was clearly sharper afterwards as Old Dominion never scored in the second half. UMass is better than what they've shown the last two weeks and I have them going down to Miami and recording an outright win. Take the points. It was a 17-0 deficit for FIU midway through the 2nd quarter last week and it appeared as if they were well on their way to a second straight loss to open the season. The opener was a real disappointment as they were beaten 38-28 by Indiana here at home. Then came a traumatic week w/ two FIU players - starting RB Anthony Jones and offensive lineman Mershawn Miller - being the victims of a drive-by shooting. Both thankfully survived, but their football futures are in doubt. Kudos to their teammates for rallying around them and coming from 17 down to beat ODU last week. The key was three straight long TD drives, one right before halftime and the other two opening the third quarter. That took them from a 20-7 deficit to a 28-20 lead, which was the final score. The weather delay came before the two second half scores and ODU was not the same offensively afterwards. This will actually be the fourth consecutive season these schools have met. The home team has won all three times so far, including a wild 63-45 game here in Miami last season. That was FIU's highest-scoring effort EVER and landed them in the Gasparilla Bowl (where they got blown out by Temple). It was also a game that was a late addition to the schedule. Hurricane Irma caused both teams to cancel games earlier in the season and each needed to add a 12th onto the schedule. Interestingly, UMass was favored by 2. The Minutemen are a better team this year and more experienced, plus I like the revenge factor. Even though they started 0-6 last year, UMass had the first down edge in five of those games. They would go onto beat both Appalachian State and BYU while also playing two SEC teams (Tennessee, Miss State) tough. I like senior QB Andrew Ford and this should be a rare road win for the Minutemen. 10* Massachusetts |
|||||||
09-15-18 | UL-Lafayette v. Mississippi State -32.5 | Top | 10-56 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (7:30 ET): Not quite knowing how good Mississippi State really was, I laid off them last week as they were road favorites going into Kansas State. The "Little Apple" is always a tough place for visiting teams, especially ones laying points, but the Bulldogs made quick work of Bill Snyder's Wildcats, demolishing them 31-10. MSU looked every bit the part of a Top 10 team in the country and those in Starkville that believe this could be the third best team in the SEC were made to look real smart. Given that the Bulldogs are off such an impressive road win and laying a big number this week, should I choose to abstain again? I don't think so. Louisiana Lafayette is no match for MSU and I suspect this one will get ugly in a hurry. Lay the points. QB Nick Fitzgerald did not even play in MSU's season opener, something that has still yet to be fully explained. But the team certainly didn't need him in a 63-6 whitewashing of FCS Stephen F. Austin. Fitzgerald had a major impact against Kansas State, however, throwing for 154 yards and running for 159 more. Coupled w/ RB Kylin Hill, who had 211 yds rushing last week, this looks to be a vicious offense that'll be tough to contain. Including Fitzgerald, they brough back nine starters from LY when they finished ranked #19 in the country. The defense is also very good, particularly up front, an area that also has plenty of experience. The spread doesn't concern me as I expect Fitzgerald to complete a far higher percentage of his throws this week against a much weaker defense. Louisiana has had two full weeks to prepare for this game, but they could get a month and it still wouldn't be enough to compete. The Ragin Cajuns beat Grambling in the opener, 49-17, but this is obviously a monumental step up in class for a team that has a 1st year head coach. The defense has only three starters back from last year, so it's going to be really tough to keep Mississippi State from scoring and Louisiana's own offense simply isn't going to be able to trade scores here. Something else that's tough is former Louisiana HC Mark Hudspeth is now the associate HC at MSU and that gives the Bulldogs a pretty clear insight into the players they'll be facing. But they don't need Hudspeth to let them know they're significantly better. That's already known and will be apparent Saturday night. 8* Mississippi State |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Oregon State v. Nevada -3 | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 37 m | Show |
8* Nevada (7:00 ET): Nevada has to be extremely disappointed with last week's showing in Nashville. They were blown out by Vanderbilt as 9.5-pt dogs, losing 41-10. Things really got away from the Wolfpack late as they were outscored 24-0 in the second half. Four turnovers certainly didn't help matters, especially considering they led to 21 Vandy points. The performance was a stark contrast to the team's season-opening win over Portland State where they scored 72 points. Granted, Portland State is a FCS school, but I (and I think they) definitely expected a better performance in that second game. Luckily, they're back in Reno this week and facing an Oregon State team that is getting a shocking amount of respect given they haven't won a road game since 2014! Lay the short number. Oregon State is on the short list for worst Power 5 team in the country. Even 40 points from the oddsmakers couldn't help them cover in Week 1 at Ohio State as they gave up 77 points to the Buckeyes. Last week brought the first win of the Jonathan Smith era, but it was a FCS opponent (Southern Utah) at home. And the Beavers' defense still surrendered a ghastly 488 yards in the win. The last time Oregon State beat a FBS team was the 2016 finale against Oregon, who was a lame duck (pun intended!) for a coach about to get fired. OSU was a double digit dog in eight of its final nine games last year, the lone exception coming in Corvallis. I know Nevada was only a 3-win team itself a year ago, but this is an awful lot of respect for a Beavers team that - again - HAS NOT WON A ROAD GAME SINCE 2014! They are 0-18 SU since then and have never been closer than a touchdown! Two-thirds of the losses have been by at least three touchdowns. Like I said last week, Nevada should improve this season for second year HC Jay Norvell. Of their nine wins the L3 seasons, eight have come here at Mackay Stadium. The offense we see Saturday night will more closely resemble what we saw vs. Portland State than what we saw vs. Vanderbilt. The best news for the Wolfpack coming out last week is that they won't have to face another SEC defense the remainder of the year. This is an opportunity that they should relish as the program's last win over a Power 5 team came back in 2014 vs. Washington State. Senior QB Ty Gangi posted the third worst QBR in any start of his career last week and should rebound against what I've already said is a much weaker defense. A "hidden" edge for the Wolfpack in this game is that they lead all FBS teams w/ an average of 27 yards per punt return. 8* Nevada |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Troy +11 v. Nebraska | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 44 h 48 m | Show |
10* Troy (12:00 ET): This is both a tricky and tough spot for Nebraska. Tricky in the sense that it's an early start time in Lincoln against a pretty good football team. Tough in the sense that it sure will be difficult to get over losing last week in Scott Frost's home debut. The Cornhuskers fell as a three-point favorite, 33-28 to Colorado, giving up the game-winning touchdown w/ just over a minute to play. It was a game Nebraska outgained its opponent, 565-395, only to be undone by an ugly -3 turnover margin. It wasn't just HC Frost's debut that they lost, though. They also lost starting QB Adrian Martinez to a knee injury and he looks to be questionable at best for this game. Nebraska has covered just 1 of the last 5 times it has been a double digit fave of three touchdowns or less and is 3-10 ATS its L13 home games. I don't get why this spread has moved the way it has. Troy is 8-3 ATS its L11 road games, so take the points. It's been a bit of a "baptism by fire" for Frost at his alma mater. He's already lost more games here than he did all of last season w/ UCF. The Cornhuskers' season opener (vs. Akron) had to be cancelled due to weather. That made the Colorado game even tougher as the 'Huskers had to play a quality opponent in their very 1st game under a new head coach. They looked good early, but the Martinez injury is when things turned. Remember that two different QB's transferred out of the program once Martinez was named the starter late in the summer. This leaves the very inexperienced Andrew Bunch, a sophomore walk-on, at the helm. Note that if somehow Martinez were to play, this selection still stands. I wouldn't expect him to very effective a week removed from injuring his knee. Troy went 11-2 SU last year and tied Appalachian State for the regular season Sun Belt title. This season got off to an auspicious start w/ a 56-20 loss at home to Boise State. I suspect that has played a significant role in this line being higher than it should. But Boise State is a better team than Nebraska. The Trojans righted the ship last week w/ a 59-7 beatdown of Florida A&M as they forced four turnovers and had a 477-287 edge in total yards w/ twice as many first downs (26-13). Turnovers are what hurt Troy vs. Boise State (had four of their own) and QB Kaleb Barker was making his first start. Barker is completing 65% of his passes so far. Neal Brown (4th season as HC) will have his team ready for this one. 10* Troy |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest OVER 53 | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
THIS IS NO LONGER A PLAY DUE TO HURRICANE FLORENCE |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Michigan State v. Arizona State +6.5 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 15 m | Show |
8* Arizona State (10:45 ET): The Herm Edwards hire has been met w/ great skepticism, at least outside of Tempe. Herm has been away from coaching for awhile (10 years!) and his last involvement w/ the college game was 1989 as a defensive coordinator @ San Jose State! But the Sun Devils' debut under Edwards definitely saw them "play to win the game" as they blew out UTSA 49-7. However, Edwards didn't seem all that impressed. "I didn't like what I was watching a lot of times," he said afterwards. I like that kind of reaction from a new HC despite holding the opposition to 220 total yards (lots of tackles for loss) and the QB turning in one of his better career performances. On the flip side, Michigan State did not look good in its season opener, barely escaping Utah State at home. There's no doubt that the respective results last week have contributed to this line shrinking some. But it was probably too high to begin with. Tempe is not a fun place to play if you're the visitor, especially in these late night affairs. Just ask Washington, who came in here ranked #5 last year (and unbeaten) and lost 13-7. The Huskies weren't the only ranked team to fall at Sun Devil Stadium last year. Two weeks prior, the same thing happened to Oregon. The Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS as a home dog the L2 seasons, pulling FOUR outright upsets. QB Wilkins, now a senior, threw 4 TD passes last week (career-high) and for 237 yds w/o an interception. Given how Utah State was able to move the ball last week (344 total yds) on the Spartans, I expect the Sun Devils to be able to do the same. Michigan State trailed Utah State 31-30 w/ just under five minutes to go. They then drove the ball 75 yards for a TD to avoid the upset. But throughout the game, they never really could pull away from the Aggies. Sure, a pick six heavily contributed to Utah State getting back in that game. But I wasn't all that impressed w/ Sparty QB Brian Lewerke overall. Over the past three seasons, Michigan State is a horrific 1-8 ATS as a road favorite. The lone cover came in last year's reg season finale at Rutgers. There have been five outright upsets in that stretch, granted three of them coming in that "lost" 3-9 season of 2016. But still, this spot just screams "potential upset" and I'll ride Coach Herm in what could be a statement game for him. 8* Arizona State |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Clemson v. Texas A&M +13 | Top | 28-26 | Win | 100 | 77 h 43 m | Show |
10* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Under the bright lights at College Station, I believe A&M is set to shine in their first real test under HC Jimbo Fisher. Fisher is of course quite familiar w/ the opponent, Clemson, having served all those years on the Florida State sideline. Fisher's FSU teams went 4-4 against Clemson, though things had turned near the end of his tenure in Tallahassee w/ the Noles losing each of the L3 years. Still, Fisher knows what he's up against Saturday night and while that's one of the best teams in all of college football, look for the Aggies to stay within this generous number. Even in the dying days of the Kevin Sumlin era in College Station, A&M still managed to go 2-0 ATS as DD home dogs last year. Before that, it had been some time since they'd been getting 10 or more here at Kyle Field. Take the points. Clemson is on everyone's shortlist for the College Football Playoff and why wouldn't they be seeing as they've gotten there each of the last three seasons. They enter 2018 w/ a bit of controversy on their hands though as they are playing two QB's - Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence. Said Dabo Swinney, "We definitely will play both quarterbacks," Swinney said. "There's no doubt about that. Nothing happened [against Furman] to warrant not playing both those guys." It wasn't a big deal against overmatched Furman, but playing two QB's can be an unneeded distraction. That's why Nick Saban quickly dealt away the idea down in Tuscaloosa. This just seems like a really large number to lay on the road, especially in an unfamiliar setting. A&M's first game went about as easy as Clemson's did. The Aggies won Fisher's debut 59-7 over Northwestern State w/ a 758-251 edge in total yards. Similarly, Clemson had no problem w/ Furman, beating them 48-7 w/ a 531-136 edge in total yards. But those were both tune-ups. Now we're about to find out what both sides are truly made of. We're pretty sure that Clemson is good, but I think A&M is also better than they're being given credit for. Fisher likes both his offensive and defensive lines and I believe playing well in the trenches keeps the Aggies in the game the whole way. This spread should be closer to a touchdown, in my estimation. 10* Texas A&M |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Iowa State v. Iowa -3.5 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
10* Iowa (5:00 ET): The battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy has typically been closely contested as five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or less. That would lead one to believe that the underdog is typically the "right side" in this rivalry, but note that the dog has actually covered only once in the past five years. Last year, Iowa won 44-41 in overtime after a late TD drive tied things up at the end of regulation. It was their third straight win over their main in-state rival. However, ISU still ended up finishing the year at 8-5 SU, same as the Hawkeyes. The Cyclones were a big surprise in the Big 12 and this year finds expectations a lot higher than normal in Ames (Matt Campbell's third year here). But I'm a bit concerned on how last week's cancellation (weather) will affect this team, which I am banking on regressing in 2018 anyway. Iowa State pulled a lot of upsets last season. They were an underdog in all but two conference games, the exceptions being the obvious ones (against Kansas and Baylor). This year's squad isn't quite as experienced and probably won't have a +10 turnover margin like 2017. Turnovers have actually been a MAJOR issue for the Cyclones in recent years vs. Iowa. They have committed 22 of them in the last nine meetings, leading to 68 Iowa points. That's roughly a quarter of all scoring from the Hawkeyes in those nine games. Their last visit here to Iowa City (two years ago) did not go well as they lost 42-3 in Campbell's second game. Despite the feel of Campbell having this program trending in a positive direction, I'm banking on ISU being somewhat of a disappointment in 2018. Kinnick Stadium (I visited there over the summer) is not an easy place to play. Just ask Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State. The Hawkeyes are 15-5 SU at home the L3 years after dismantling Northern Illinois last week 33-7. That was a game where a LOT of people liked the underdog. I've got the Hawkeyes finishing second in the Big 10 West this year (behind Wisconsin obviously) as this should be a better team than last year. As I briefly mentioned above, Iowa State did not play last week as their scheduled game vs. South Dakota State was cancelled due to the weather. Not getting a game under their belt could end up costing them here as Iowa looked good and ready to go in their opener. I get that Iowa State was a great underdog last season, but typically we see that kind of performance regress the following season. 10* Iowa |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Georgia v. South Carolina +10 | Top | 41-17 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 12 m | Show |
8* South Carolina (3:30 ET): This game is back to being played on the second weekend of the season after a couple year hiatus. These teams finished 1-2 in the SEC East last year (UGA obviously #1), but oddsmakers had it as a total mismatch w/ UGA favored by 23 in Athens. The Bulldogs did win comfortably, but "only" by two touchdowns as it was the Gamecocks who covered the spread. It was UGA's third straight double digit win in the rivalry, and it looks like the same is being expected Saturday. But this is a lot of points to lay on the SEC road and I think Will Muschamp's defense keeps his team in this one. Take the points as the home team is on a 5-1 run in this series. Georgia was a pointspread juggernaut LY, covering 11 of its 15 games, including the National Title Game LOSS to Alabama. They opened #3 this season (behind Bama and Clemson) and clobbered Austin Peay 45-0 w/ a 508-152 edge in total yards. That really doesn't tell us much about this team. This team was pretty fortunate last year in that most of their "hard" games were at home. Their one regular season road game against a ranked opponent was a one-point win over Notre Dame. Something to watch here is that the 'Dawgs have only five returning starters on defense. South Carolina's offense is a lot more talented this year w/ both WR Deebo Samuel and RB Rico Dowdle back from injuries. Neither played in last year's game. Like Georgia, South Carolina's first game tells us little about what is yet to come. They blew out Coastal Carolina 49-15 and now find themselves ranked in the Top 25. Dowdle had 100 yards on 15 carries and the Gamecocks dominated (as you'd expect) w/ a 557-238 edge in total yards. This is easily the biggest home game of the Muschamp era (third year here), so expect a highly motivated underdog Saturday afternoon. It's also the national TV game on CBS. As good as Georgia may be, I don't see them coming in and blowing South Carolina out. To me, Georgia by about a touchdown seems like a pretty likely scenario, which means taking the points is the way to go here. 8* South Carolina |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Arkansas State +36.5 v. Alabama | Top | 7-57 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
8* Arkansas State (3:30 ET): You have to tip your cap to Nick Saban for the job done in yet another neutral site season opener. Last week's 51-14 demolition of Louisville (in Orlando) improved Saban to a perfect 12-0 SU (and 11-1 ATS) in season openers since coming to Tuscaloosa and the L8 wins have all come at neutral sites against Power 5 programs. He's covered the spot in seven of those. But as impressive as Bama has been in those games, they've been equally as disappointing the following week - at least to bettors. They are 0-6 ATS (w/ one no-action) in Week 2 the past seven years as they are almost always laying a big number in a game that just screams out "flat spot." It's the same setup this year and this is a play on the situation moreso than the points. Take Arkansas State plus the points. Arkansas State won its opener 48-21 over Southeast Missouri State. QB Justice Hansen threw 6 TD passes, all to different receivers, and completed 26 of 36 pass attempts for 423 yards. But the Red Wolves really didn't break away until the 3Q when they found the end zone four times. Dahu Green was NOT one of the six receivers who caught a TD pass from Hansen, nor will he be catching one the rest of the season as his 2018 is now over due to a broken ankle. Green was NOT a part of the team last year though (sat out as a transfer) when ASU went 7-5 SU, which was actually a DOWN year for them. This is a program that has been to seven straight bowls despite a myriad of coaching changes. While they're clearly NOT on Alabama's level, the Red Wolves are more than capable of staying within this huge number. I don't see Alabama trying to run up the score here. They proved their point against Louisville and have the SEC opener next week at Ole Miss (always a tricky place for Saban). The QB situation seems to have worked itself out here w/ Taovailoa predictably beating out Hurts to be the starter. But no matter who's started for the Crimson Tide, they have consistently failed laying these big numbers at the betting window in Week 2. Last year, they were 43-point chalk against Fresno State and won "only" 41-10 (I had FSU!). That was w/o a SEC game on deck. The Tide's defense is young on the backend (secondary), which should allow Hansen and the Arkansas State offense to make enough plays to stay comfortably within this spread. 8* Arkansas State |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Air Force +9.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 73 h 58 m | Show |
8* Air Force (2:00 ET): FAU looked shockingly ill-prepared for its season opener at Oklahoma to the point it appeared the team had been simply reading its own press clippings and not practicing over the summer. They lost 63-14, getting outgained 650-324 in the process. The game was 42-0 at halftime and could have been a lot worse had the Sooners not taken their foot off the gas pedal in the 2H. FAU also didn't score until late in the third quarter and their second TD came w/ just over four minutes to go in the game. As ugly as that display was, things won't get any easier this week as they have to turn around and defend the triple option of Air Force. Given how putrid the Owls' defense looked last Saturday, I give the AFA an excellent shot at coming in and pulling the outright upset. Take the points. Service academies always seem to make for good underdogs and Air Force has generally been no exception. They are 7-2 ATS in the L3 years as a road dog. Last week, they were a favorite and crushed Stony Brook 38-0. The Falcons' defense was not impressed w/ what the Sea Wolves had to offer, holding them to just 75 yards and 4 first downs for the game. It marked the 12th consecutive season that the AFA opened the season w/ a win over a FCS opponent at home. This week is going to be tougher, but I don't expect the contingent from Colorado Springs will be intimidated. To the contrary, I expect them to be highly motivated. The last three seasons have seen this team go 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS against non-conference competition. Florida Atlantic was one of the breakout teams in college football last season, going 11-3 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. It will now be interesting to see how they perform going from the "hunter" to the "hunted." I don't know what to make of last week's dreadful showing, other than to say it's looking like a surefire decline under HC Lane Kiffin in year two. The Owls were the most experienced team in the country LY, paving the way for massive improvement. They did bring back 10 starters on defense for this season, but some good that did them last week. They've got only five starters back on offense and looked totally one dimensional LW w/ RB Devin Singletary the only real threat. Air Force has covered 9 of the past 10 times it has been a road dog of 7.5 to 10 points. 8* Air Force |
|||||||
09-08-18 | Nevada +9 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -106 | 70 h 43 m | Show |
8* Nevada (12:00 ET): All summer long, Vanderbilt had to hear how Middle Tennessee was on "their level." Odds reflected that belief as the Commodores were only slight favorites, at home, going into last Saturday's Week 1 matchup. So much for that belief. The Commies easily dispatched of the Blue Raiders, winning 35-7 and covering the spread easily as 3.5-pt favorites. But now comes a potential "trap spot" as they're off a win over an in-state "rival" and have Notre Dame on deck. They may have gotten the job done last week, but Vandy has never really been a good choice as a favorite, going just 2-8 ATS the L10x it has been asked to lay between 7.5 and 10 pts at home. They're rarely even in this price range and Nevada is a dangerous dog. Take the points. Nevada hung 72 points on an overmatched Portland State squad last week, a nice start after going just 3-9 SU last season. I figure they're a lock to improve in the Mt West as this is Jay Norvell's second season and he's got seven returning starters on offense as opposed to the four he had last year. Things won't be as easy this week compared to last, but it won't have to be in the underdog role. Something else to consider here is that Nevada has had an extra day to prepare as their season opener took place last Friday. They rolled up 636 yards of total offense against Portland State and should be highly motivated going into "SEC country" for the 1st time since 2015 and just the fifth time ever. As lopsided as the game ended up being on the scoreboard, Vandy really didn't pull away until late against MTSU. A defensive TD in the second quarter is what swung the game as it was tied 7-7 at that point. After a 58-yard TD drive to open the game, Vandy's offense struggled to move the ball for the rest of the 1st half, gaining just 31 more yards. Their pass defense was also suspect, giving up 100 yds through the air in the 1st quarter alone. A +2 turnover margin obviously helped as well. Nevada QB Ty Gangi threw for 342 yards in the opener. While that obviously came against an inferior defense, he should put up solid numbers again in this one. Vandy is 1-4 ATS following its previous 5 SU wins and isn't as lucky as a last week when the number is so short. Look for the pointspread to be a factor in this one. 8* Nevada |