Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-17-18 | Marlins v. Orioles -168 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): I know that it seems very difficult to back the Orioles right now. An already disastrous season is approaching its nadir (already there?) as the team has now dropped nine in a row to land at 19-50 for the season, which is the worst record in all of baseball. They're on the verge of being swept - at home, no less (!) - by the worst team from the National League. Miami has come in this weekend and taken the first two games - by scores of 2-0 and 5-4 - each time holding off a late rally attempt by the home team. But despite all that, I believe the "third time will be the charm" here today for the Orioles as Dylan Bundy is on the mound and he's at least been the club's most reliable starter in 2018. Bundy has been particularly sharp in day games this season, with a 4-2 TSR and 1.08 ERA. He also has a 2.39 career ERA in Interleague play. Coming into this game w/ a streak of four straight quality outings, Bundy has not even allowed a single run in the last two. He comes into Sunday riding a 15-inning scoreless streak, having allowed a total of just six hits during that time. Last time out, he was facing Boston, and sadly that ended up being one of the worst "beats" Bundy will have to deal w/ in his career. He threw eight scoreless innings against one of the best teams in baseball, but received no support (literally!) and the Red Sox ended up winning 2-0 in 12 innings. That was the fourth time this year Bundy hasn't allowed a single earned run and the team's record is 3-1 in those starts. Nine of his 14 starts so far have been quality ones and the current four start stretch includes a complete game against the White Sox where Bundy finished w/ 14 K's. Baltimore has now lost 11 straight at Camden Yards, matching a franchise record set back in '07. This is also the franchise's worst 69-game start since that infamous 1988 team opened w/ 21 straight losses. I'm not saying "the worm is going to turn" completely here (missing closer Zach Britton to start the year definitely hurt), but this is a game they "should" win. Miami has the third worst run differential in all of baseball and while they've won five of six, they're a team that's still been outscored by roughly 2.0 rpg on the road this season. Trevor Richards is the starter Sunday and he's yet to taste victory away from home w/ an 0-2 record (four starts) to go along w/ a 5.71 ERA and 1.788 WHIP. Facing an American League lineup (DH) is something he hasn't done since his 1st start of the season when he went up against Boston and gave up five runs in 4 1/3 IP. And that was in a NL park where the opposing pitcher had to come up to bat. In fact, last time out marked Richards' first career victory. If the O's don't win Sunday, then when? 8* Baltimore |
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06-16-18 | Twins v. Indians -195 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -195 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): The Indians lost as big favorites (w/ Corey Kluber on the mound) last night, 6-3 to the Twins, but I fully anticipate them bouncing back w/ a win this afternoon. The truth of the matter is that the Tribe can virtually "sleepwalk" its way to another AL Central crown this year as none of the other four teams in their division profile as any better than .500. In fact, I'm not sure there's another team from that quartet that will end up w/ more than 75 wins by season's end! The Twins might be the second best team in the division, but that's "faint praise" and they were an obvious candidate for regression this year after making the Wild Card game LY. Winning B2B games in Cleveland as a big ML dog seems like an order too tall to climb. It'll be Carlos Carrasco pitching today for Cleveland, looking to make it three straight dominant starts. Against Chicago (White Sox) and Milwaukee, Carrasco fanned 21 hitters in 14 IP and allowed just one run. He's no stranger to the Twins as today is the third time he's faced them in 2018. Both of the previous two took place in the Twin Cities. The last one was not good (allowed six runs), but the first one was as he delivered seven shutout innings. Obviously, I feel a repeat of the first is far more likely here. Minnesota came into this series batting just .220 as a team the L7 days. They shockingly got to Kluber last night, but I view that as a total aberration. Minnesota will go w/ rookie Fernando Romero and he's been shaky of late. In his L5 starts, his ERA is 6.20 and the last three, it's 8.52 (not to mention, a 1.894 WHIP as well). Now a lot of those poor numbers has to do w/ one poor start he had at Kansas City. But the fact he struggled against arguably the worst team in the sport doesn't exactly bode well either. Cleveland came into this series averaging 5.8 rpg at Progressive Field and is 11-3 here vs. AL Central foes. Simply feasting on their division rivals seems like a viable track to 90 wins for the Tribe this season and though they're now just 2-5 vs. the Twins this season, I see that record getting "squared away" sooner rather than later. I'll be in attendance at this game, by the way, and expect to be celebrating the victory in person. 6* Cleveland |
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06-15-18 | Cubs -111 v. Cardinals | Top | 13-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (8:15 ET): The last time the Cubs came calling to the Gateway City, the Cardinals swept them right out of town. This time should go much differently. I say that knowing full well the Cubs were shut out in their last two games, both against Milwaukee. But St. Louis last two games were no better as they dropped a pair - at home - to the lowly Padres. The revenge angle is something I believe in (see Arizona last night) as it's tough to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, especially if it's a division rival. The Cubs' +89 run differential is the NL's best currently and indicates to me that they are set to make a run to the top of the Central Division. I really like them on Friday. We have - on paper - what appears to be a strong pitching matchup in this series opener. Let's start w/ the Cubs' Jon Lester, who is 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA and 0.80 WHIP his L3 starts. He's allowed 1 ER or less in five of his last six starts and comes into tonight working on a 14 inning scoreless streak. Furthermore, he's allowed all of three hits in his last two starts! He has a 1.63 ERA his L8 starts and won't have to worry about facing the Cardinals' top hitter - Jose Martinez - who is back in his native Venezuela on paternity leave. In each of their last three series, the Cardinals were up against a last place team. Sadly, they were able to go just 4-5 overall and two of the series were here at home. That doesn't bode well when stepping up in class to face what I still consider the Senior Circuit's best team. Michael Wacha is set to face Lester again and while he has been just as sharp of late (1.33 ERA, 0.787 WHIP L3 starts) and unbeaten at home (7-1 TSR), I don't think we'll be seeing a repeat of May 6th when he was able to outduel Lester for a 4-3 win. Yes, Wacha has allowed 2 ER or fewer in an amazing 10 straight starts, but I'll call for that streak to come to a halt tonight as he's up against a lineup averaging an impressive 5.0 rpg on the road this season. In fact, the Cubs "should" be a lot better than only 19-14 away from Wrigley as they're outscoring opponents by two full runs per game while holding them to a .204 average. Lester should handle the heavy lifting here while Anthony Rizzo (18 for 40 lifetime vs. Wacha) and company should give him the requisite amt of support. 10* Chi Cubs |
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06-15-18 | Marlins v. Orioles -147 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): With a terrible run differential (currently -116) and the fewest number of wins in all of MLB (19), it's tough to offer up an endorsement of the Orioles, especially right now as they've lost seven in a row. But they come in laying juice on Friday and that must mean they are in a good spot. They welcome in a Miami team that happens to be the National League's worst. The Marlins did just take three of four (at home) from the Giants to start the week, but they've still been outscored by 106 runs. Playing yesterday while Baltimore had off puts the visitors at a pretty distinct disadvantage here and it should be noted that the O's aren't quite as terrible here at Camden Yards. A "rousing endorsement" I know, but after an off day, they should be able to beat the Marlins at home. Facing Jose Urena also helps Baltimore's cause Friday. Urena has been one of the best pitchers to bet against this season as his team start record is a horrifc 1-13. He actually hasn't pitched quite as poorly as you might think given that record, but facing an American League lineup w/ the DH won't help matters. Ironically, Urena's one win this season came in a game where he allowed a season-worst 10 hits in 5 IP. That was two starts ago vs. St. Louis. Last time out, he allowed three runs in 6 IP, but Miami still lost 3-1 to San Diego. Coming off a five-hour marathon game vs. the Giants yday (went 16 innings) does this young team no favors today, especially considering a 12-22 road record (-2.2 runs per game!). Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman has not exactly been Cy Young lately w/ a 9.20 ERA and 1.772 WHIP his L3 starts. But he's had his moments in 2018. He threw a complete game shutout at Oakland earlier in the year and again didn't allow a run over six innings vs. Chicago late last month. He's got a nice KW ratio of late (38-5 L5 starts), which is a good omen. When you're losing more than you're winning, a great closer doesn't matter a whole lot, but it's definitely worth pointing out that closer Zach Britton is back. His absence definitely has a lot to do with this poor start to the season. Him being back isn't likely to change the Orioles' fortune that much (they should probably deal him at the deadline) the rest of the way, but this is the rare series where the team should take care of business. 8* Baltimore |
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06-15-18 | Nationals -129 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these teams have been struggling at the plate recently. The Nationals were shut out in both the final game of a series w/ the Giants over the weekend and then the opener of a brief two-game set in New York Tuesday. But at least they were able to then bounce back and earn a split vs. the Yankees by winning 5-4 on Wednesday. Toronto just got swept down in Tampa Bay, scoring all of one run in the last two games. Though it wasn't necessarily a huge help in the two games at Yankee Stadium, I suspect the use of the designated hitter will benefit the Nats this weekend where they will face a much weaker pitching staff, particularly in the back end. Look for the road team to come in and roll tonight. The National League has been a lot better in IL play this season, compared to past years. They haven't won the season series from the AL since '03, but that appears poised to change now w/ the Senior Circuit currently holding a 55-42 advantage. Really, two NL teams in particular have done the most damage and the Nats happen to be one of them (the Pirates, curiously, are the other at 10-2). Washington is 6-1 vs. the American League so far in '18, the only loss coming Tuesday to a good Yankees team. Toronto is an opponent that has been struggling for awhile. Not only were they just swept in the last series, but they are just 17-32 the L49 games. Washington is also one of the better road teams in baseball. Their record is 22-12 and they're outscoring teams by nearly a full run per game. Toronto, meanwhile, continues to be a losing proposition at home (16-19, -5.6 units). Gio Gonzalez gets the baseball here for the Nats. The team has won his last four starts, even the last one where he clearly was not at his best. Gonzalez lasted only 3 1/3 innings while giving up a season-high four runs. Yet that doesn't change the fact he's been an effective starter for this team. He has a 2.65 ERA and 1.31 WHIP w/ a 75-32 KW ratio in 74 innings of work. He'd gone 7+ innings in each of his three starts prior and allowed just seven runs total his previous six outings. Toronto's offense scored only five runs on 18 hits the last series. They'll counter Gonzalez w/ Aaron Sanchez, who - quite frankly - has not been that effective of late. He has a 5.19 ERA and 1.443 WHIP his L3 starts and has been walking a lot of batters recently (7 in L2 starts). At home, he has yet to win a decision this year in seven tries and it's easy to see why w/ a 1.526 WHIP. Washington is simply the much better team here. 8* Washington |
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06-14-18 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -144 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Note: the Mets made a pitching change to Jason Vargas, but this play still stands! 10* Arizona (9:40 ET): The Diamondbacks had their five-game win streak (scored 51 runs during it!) snapped yday afternoon w/ a 5-4 loss to Pittsburgh. But I expect them to recover quickly in what is an obvious revenge spot against the slumping Mets. Since starting 11-1 for 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, the Mets have gone 17-35, one of the worst records in all of MLB during that time. The team was shutout yday afternoon, 2-0 by the Braves, and that's not a good sign considering an 0-5 record following a shutout loss this season. Overall, the Mets have now lost 10 of their last 11 games. Really, their lone "highlight" since that 11-1 start was sweeping Arizona at home last month. This is the D'backs chance for revenge though and I believe they'll exact it. Offensively, the Mets have been a disaster this month. Yesterday was the third time they've been shutout in June alone and they've gone 12 consecutive games w/o scoring more than four runs. Incredibly, they've scored only 19 runs - total - in those 12 games. In addition to being shutout three times, they've also been held to just one run in four other games during that stretch. This all has to be "music to the ears" of today's starter for the D'backs, Matt Koch, who tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball in his last home start. He did not face the Mets in the previous series. Arizona has some work to do at the plate as well (they rank 30th in MLB in team batting average), but we've already started to see them improve that number by scoring all those runs this week. The increase in offensive production not coincidentally coincides w/ the return of John Jay to the lineup as the leadoff man. The D'backs have been a strong home team this year, thanks in large part to allowing just 3.6 rpg here. They'll now face Jason Vargas, not Steven Matz, and Vargas has generally been pretty bad this year as is evident by his 7.71 ERA and 1.747 WHIP. He's even worse on the road w/ those numbers climbing to 10.34 and 1.978 respectively. He's yet to last more than five innings in any start this season and this is a hitter-friendly ballpark, generally speaking. The D'backs also have the far better bullpen of the two teams here. 10* Arizona |
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06-13-18 | Twins -153 v. Tigers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -153 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:10 ET): I had the Over in last night's series opener between the Twins and Tigers, which thankfully cashed due to a flurry of runs scored in the late innings. The final score was 6-4 in favor of Minnesota Tuesday and I expect them to win again here on Wednesday. A two-run home loss wasn't the only bad news for Detroit as the team lost Miguel Cabrera for the remainder of the season as the slugger ruptured a biceps tendon on a swing last night. While Cabrera's production had certainly "fallen off" in recent seasons, manager Ron Gardenhire called the injury "a big blow for our ball club." He's right and now Gardenhire is poised to lose to the team he once managed yet again. It's not like the Tigers had been performing well at the plate w/ Cabrera in the lineup anyway. Going into last night, the team was batting a collective .202 its last seven games, scoring two runs or less four times in that stretch. Without the former batting champ, the home team's offensive struggles figure to continue tonight against Jose Berrios. Berrios has pitched very well this season and his 8-5 TSR isn't really indicative of his overall performance. He brings a 0.92 WHIP into Wednesday after throwing a complete game last week vs. the White Sox, which came w/ 10 strikeouts. It was the fourth time the Twins have won in his last five starts w/ Berrios going at least 7 1/3 innings and giving up two runs or fewer four times during that stretch. One of those came at the expense of the Tigers as on 5.21, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on three hits. The Twins won 4-2. Safe to say, with a 44-5 KW ratio in those L5 starts, Berrios has emerged as the clear ace of the Minnesota starting rotation. Matthew Boyd, arguably Detroit's best starter this year, will get the nod opposite Berrios tonight. The Tigers are 3-0 in Boyd's last three starts and he has a 0.991 WHIP at home this season (six starts). But look for him to struggle early here as Twins leadoff man Brian Dozier has hit Boyd well in the past (.406 career average!) and that inevitably will lead to more trouble for the Tigers. Including last night, Minnesota has now scored six or more runs in each of the last four games played here at Comerica Park. They're also 10-2 head to head w/ the Tigers the L12 meetings overall. 8* Minnesota |
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06-13-18 | Rockies v. Phillies -139 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies held off the Rockies last night for a 5-4 win in a battle of struggling ballclubs. The Phils had lost four in a row prior to beating Milwaukee (here at home) on Sunday while the Rockies' losing streak has now hit five in a row (they were swept at home by Arizona over the weekend). Tonight, we have a battle of struggling starters (both 0-3 TSR L3 starts), but I'll side w/ the home team as I don't see Colorado's woes being permanently cured anytime soon. While the pitching improves rather dramatically outside the confines of hitter-friendly Coors Field, just as predictable is the decline on the other side of the ledger, that being the number of runs they score. Homefield advantage means a lot to these teams as Philly is now 21-11 at Citizens Bank Park this season. Go w/ them. Nick Pivetta gets the nod here for the Phils and despite him having no success recently, he's pitched well here at home throughout the course of the season. We're talking a 2.20 ERA and 0.976 WHIP in seven starts. Five of those have resulted in team victories. His last two starts were both on the road, so that partly explains the lack of success. But, more than anything, it's been a lack of run support that's doomed Pivetta. His last home start saw him give up just two runs and the team still lost (5-3 to Toronto). There's been only one start at home all year that saw Pivetta allow more than two runs. Three times, he hasn't allowed any! Going up against a Colorado lineup that is averaging just 3.9 rpg away from home (and batting a collective .222) seems pretty ideal. It was pretty interesting to see the Phillies come away w/ the 5-4 victory last night despite getting outhit 11-4. But they were never really in danger until the ninth inning, which is when the Rockies scored three of their runs. Starter Aaron Nola was dominant yet again. That's just the way things have gone for the Rockies of late as they've dropped 9 of 11 and been outscored 41-24 during their five-game losing streak. Note they've now been outscored by 43 runs over the course of the season, meaning they should feel fortunate to even be within two games of .500. Starter Tyler Anderson, despite being off a solid outing, has not won a decision in almost a month and has a 5.27 ERA his L7 starts overall. The Phillies are simply the better team here. 10* Philadelphia |
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06-12-18 | Cubs v. Brewers -103 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): The Brewers got a "taste of their own medicine" last night and now are no longer in first place in the NL Central. What I mean by that - is a team that had been feasting on winning close games - dropped one in 11 innings last night - 7-2 to the Cubs. Now that final score is misleading when you consider the Cubs scored five runs in the deciding 11th frame (helped me cash the Over!) and Milwaukee led 2-1 going into the eighth. In fact, twice the Cubs rallied from one-run deficits before finally putting things away in the 11th. Given the respective run differentials here, it was only a matter of time before the Cubs (1st in NL in run diff) passed the Brew Crew, but w/ the home team still having revenge for a prior sweep (took place in Wrigley back in April), I'm on them again Tuesday. Milwaukee is now 23-14 since going 1-7 against the Cubs back in April. You can now make it 1-8 following last night and that probably could go a long way in determining the NL Central. Incredibly, the Brew Crew have scored more than two runs in only one of the nine head to head meetings w/ the Cubs this season, that being (not ironically) their lone win, which was a 5-4 decision here at Miller Park back on April 6th. The team is better than what it's shown vs. the Cubs, that's for sure, and can still claim to be 17-9 off a loss this season. What transpired last night was quite rare in that the Brewers' bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season (tops in NL in ERA) and the reliever that gave up the key hit in the eighth - Josh Hader - had previously allowed only two hits in 36 at bats vs. left-handed hitters (Jason Heyward got him). The offensive woes that have plagued Milwaukee against the Cubs so far this season should take a turn for the better Tuesday. That's because they'll be up against Tyler Chatwood, who is probably the weak link of the Cubs' starting rotation. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts and a 3.86 ERA for the year, but what sticks out like a "sore thumb" is his 1.783 WHIP. He's had major control issues, especially of late, with a stunning 22 walks in his L4 starts (which have spanned just 14 1/3 innings). Those 22 walks have come against just 13 strikeouts as well, obviously a terrible ratio for any pitcher. Chatwood has been extremely fortunate of late to still be successful, but I look for that to run out tonight. He has a stunning 56 walks in 58 1/3 IP this season and has walked at least five batters in 8 of his 12 starts. The Brewers counter w/ Chase Anderson, who has a 2.79 ERA his L3 starts vs. the Cubs. Sadly, the offense failed to score for him in any of those three contests (two of them coming this year), but that will change here. 10* Milwaukee |
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06-10-18 | Braves v. Dodgers -161 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): After taking Friday's series opener in relatively convincing fashion (won 7-3), the Dodgers lost to the Braves last night by a score of 5-3. I continue to maintain that the Dodgers are far better than their .500 record would seem to indicate as they have a run differential of +43 that is actually tops in their division. While both the Rockies and Giants are also 32-32 on the year (same record as LA), those teams have respective run differentials of -37 and -29. The one team ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West, Arizona, had their number early in the season. But despite the injuries and heavy losses at the pay window, I'm nowhere near ready to sell on Dodger Blue. Take them Sunday. While the Dodgers have underperformed to this point, the Braves have been one of baseball's most pleasant surprises. They are 37-27 and have their division's best run differential (+64) as well. Their 21-15 road record has been huge as has been the pitching of today's starter Sean Newcomb. But realize that a lot of Newcomb's success has been predicated on run support as the team has scored a total of 59 runs in his 12 starts. Now, Newcomb has largely held up his end of the bargain as well by turning in a 2.49 ERA and 1.194 WHIP. But it's also easy to win when the offense scores 14 times as it did in his last outing. Newcomb's recent strikeout numbers are hardly impressive either; he has almost the same number of walks (11) as he does K's (14) over his L4 starts. The Dodgers send Ross Stripling to the mound Sunday and he's been even more impressive than Newcomb this season, especially of late. Over his L3 starts, Stripling is 3-0 w/ a 0.48 ERA and 0.857 WHIP. He's allowed just five runs total his last five starts and one of them was unearned. Last time out, he tossed five shutout innings of four-hit ball at Pittsburgh w/ seven strikeouts. His KW ratio is far better than Newcomb's as it's 42-2 those L5 starts. Atlanta has not won a series at Dodgers Stadium dating back to 2012 and home is where the Dodgers are likely to improve the most moving forward. Go w/ them here. 8* LA Dodgers |
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06-10-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -144 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-09-18 | Cardinals v. Reds +100 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Fortunately, I had the Reds on the run line (+1.5) last night, which allowed me to cash them in a one-run loss in extra innings (fell 7-6 in 10). They rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth to tie the game, so truthfully I was fortunate to cash as the Reds never led. Losing to the Cardinals has become an all-too "familiar script" in Cincinnati as head to head they're now 0-8 this season vs. their NL Central rival. Certainly, this can't go on forever right? Note while they never led last night, they did outhit the Redbirds, 13-8. Facing Michael Wacha today will be a challenge, but I feel that this time the Reds break through w/ that elusive victory over St. Louis. It's obviously not been a good season in the Queen City thus far. The Reds were the first team to fire its manager, doing so after only 18 games. At the time, the club was off to a franchise worst 3-15 start. Ironically, the first series under interim manager Jim Riggleman was a sweep at the hands of the Cardinals, the second time that happened in 2018. But since that disastrous 3-18 opening to the campaign, the Reds are at least a more respectable 19-24 overall. Today, they'll send Luis Castillo to the bump. They've gone 6-7 in his 13 starts, though they've dropped the last two. But both were on the road and prior to, Castillo had allowed 2 ER or fewer in five consecutive outings and turned in a 4-1 team start record. He did face St. Louis earlier this year and gave up only three runs in 5 IP. This losing streak to the Cardinals extends beyond this season. It's now 12 straight losses to their division rival for the Reds, which is almost unconscionable. Wacha has certainly had their number. He's 10-1 all-time against them, including 9-0 his L12 starts (12-0 TSR!). His last loss to the Reds came all the way back in 2014! Last time out, Wacha took a no-hitter into the ninth inning (vs. Pittsburgh), continuing what has been a strong stretch for him. But, as far as the team is concerned, today marks the first time in over a month that St. Louis is in off B2B wins. I just have to believe the Reds are "due" to win here. 8* Cincinnati |
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06-09-18 | Mariners v. Rays -133 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:10 ET): Today "has" to be the day for Tampa Bay, right? Seattle beat them by one-run (again) last night as both wins in this series have come by that exact margin. The Rays are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Mariners this season, four of those losses being of the "dreaded" one-run variety. Quite frankly, Seattle has lived off one-run wins this season. They're won a MLB-high 20 such games and have also been involved in the most such decisions (29). They're also 6-0 in extra inning games. That certainly helps explain how they're in front of a Houston team that Pythagorean win expectations says should be THIRTEEN games ahead! I'm willing to "stick to my guns" here and reiterate how I'm just not a believer in what has been a very lucky M's team. Unlike the last two games, the Rays will go w/ an actual starter on Saturday. Manager Kevin Cash elected to go the "opener" route both Thursday and Friday, but to no avail. By "opener," I mean that Cash used a reliever to start the game, but only for a couple of innings before turning to the bullpen. Such is life w/ a Rays' rotation that is somewhat in shambles due to injuries. But here, they'll turn to their most effective starter of the 2018 campaign, that being Blake Snell, who owns a 7-3 record to go along w/ a 2.36 ERA and 0.943 WHIP. Opposing teams are batting only .220 at Tropicana Field this season and Snell has certainly played a key role in that as he has a ridiculous 0.86 ERA and 0.83 WHIP at home this season (five starts). Over his L3 starts, Snell has allowed just one run (and it was unearned) in 17 2/3 innings of work. In his last start, Snell faced off against the same pitcher he'll go up against today. That would be Felix Hernandez. Seattle won the game, 2-1 (by one run, of course!), but that doesn't tell the "true" story. Snell tossed six scoreless innings of two-hit ball w/ 12 strikeouts before the bullpen blew the game in the bottom of the eighth. Hernandez obviously pitched well too; he went eight innings and gave up just one run on five hits. But this is not the "King Felix" of old, I assure you. He'd allowed 4 ER or more in each of his five starts previous and has a 5.33 ERA (and 1.332 WHIP) for the year. The numbers on the road are even worse (7.03 ERA, 1.531 WHIP), so the fact Hernandez has a better TSR (8-5 compared to 7-6) than Snell is highly misleading. I really can't overstate how fortunate Seattle has been to this point as their 20 one-run victories are the most in MLB HISTORY through the first 63 games of any season. Snell has a 0.55 career ERA vs. them, so for the first time in June and the first time this year vs. the Mariners, the Rays will win in what shapes up as a massive revenge spot. 10* Tampa Bay |
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06-08-18 | Padres v. Marlins -134 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:10 ET): I assure you that endorsements of the Marlins will be few and far between this season, but tonight is a good spot to take them as they are at home, hosting the Padres, and have revenge. San Diego just took three of four from the Fish at Petco Park to end May. That's part of a 7-2 run for the Padres, but I'm not buying it at all. That entire run came at home with two of the series against fellow last place teams. They haven't been all that bad (surprisingly!) on the road so far (11-14 record), but moving forward I have as little faith in the Padres as I do the Marlins. The avenging home team should take this series opener in a battle of cellar dwellers. Of course, neither of these clubs were expected to be good in 2018. San Diego started 10-20, but has actually been above .500 since then (19-15) thanks to the recent run. They've won three straight series for the first time in almost a full calendar year. However, Miami also outscored St. Louis 18-7 in the first two games of its last series (before losing 4-1 yday) and will send rookie Caleb Smith to the bump this evening. Smith leads all rookies w/ 74 strikeouts so far and he has a 0.962 WHIP his L3 starts. He was also the only Marlins starter to get a win in the last series vs. the Padres. Starting the opener (sound familiar?) of that four-game set, Smith went seven innings and allowed only one run on four hits. His K/9 innings rate of 11.0 is in the top 11 in all of MLB. He followed up that start at San Diego by allowing five runs in four innings at hitter-friendly Chase Field (Arizona), but still has a 3.03 ERA his L7 starts overall. Opponents are batting just .101 against his slider for the season. Smith will be opposed by the same pitcher he faced the last time he went against San Diego. That would be Eddie Lauer, who has been - by far - the more inconsistent of the two pitchers here. He lasted only 2 1/3 innings against Miami last time and gave up five runs in the process. For the season, he has a 6.82 ERA and 1.981 WHIP in eight starts and the team has gone just 2-6, including 0-4 on the road. The fact that the Padres head to Miami off an off-day while the Marlins played yday does not matter in my eyes as SD is 1-5 playing w/ a day of rest anyway. 8* Miami |
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06-08-18 | Mariners v. Rays +120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Well, the Rays failed to come through for me yesterday as a late rally fell short and Seattle won another one-run game (5-4). But I'll come right back w/ the home team Friday, noting the same elements/rationale that was present for Thursday's play still persists here. The Mariners are not as good as their 39-23 record would seem to indicate as they've only outscored opponents by 22 runs over the course of that season. Their "win expectancy" (based on YTD run differential) is actually only 34. To put this in some perspective, the team they lead by one game in the AL West (Houston) has a run differential of +121 and a win expectancy of 46! The Rays still have revenge for a prior sweep in Seattle and three of their four losses to the M's this season have been by one run. Their record in one-run games (MLB-best 19-9) helps explain that discepancy between actual and expected wins for the Mariners. It also helps that they're a perfect 6-0 in extra inning games. This all sounds very unsustainable to me, however, and I'm on the record as calling for them to regress moving forward. They got a strong starting effort from Mike Leake last night and tonight will hand the baseball to the red-hot Marco Gonzalez. His L3 starts have seen Gonzalez go 3-0 w/ a 0.44 ERA and 0.934 WHIP. Impressive as those numbers might be (and his last start was against the Rays), I remain a bit skeptical as Gonzalez's ERA prior to the three start stretch was 5.31. While Seattle is trotting out the same starters we saw in the last series vs. the Rays, TB is going with the "opener" approach, meaning a reliever gets the "start," but only goes an inning or two. It's a "by committee" approach from there. This didn't work out for manager Kevin Cash last night w/ Austin Pruitt giving up three runs in the second after he came on in relief of Ryne Stanek, who had worked out of a bases loaded jam himself in the first. That said, visiting teams came into last night's game batting just .219 for the season at Tropicana Field. It should also be pointed out that Pruitt settled down yday after the rough second innings. The Rays outhit the M's last night (10-8). Tonight, they throw out Wilmer Font in the "opener" role. Since joining the team last month, Font has made four appearances and has a 1.50 ERA, having allowed only one run on three hits in six innings of work. At the end of the day though, this one simply boils down to my continued skepticism of Seattle's success. 10* Tampa Bay |
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06-08-18 | Brewers v. Phillies -123 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Brewers are another of those teams I remain quite skeptical of moving forward. They've started to slip in recent days as well, dropping three in a row and scoring only four runs in the process. The last two losses took place in Cleveland on Tuesday & Wednesday. The Brew Crew remain in first place in the NL Central, however, their lead is shrinking as it's currently down to one-half game over the surging Cubs. To this observer, there's no arguement that the Cubs are the better team and that seems to be confirmed by their +91 run differential compared to Milwaukee's +26. The Phillies just did the Brewers no favors by dropping B2B games to the Cubbies, but now can do more damage while improving their own lot. I like the home team in this one. Philly has been a lot better at Citizens Bank Park this season as they've got a 19-9 home record and have outscored their visitors by nearly two full runs per game. They are roughly the equivalent of Boston for best run differential at home in all of baseball. But while the Red Sox score the most runs per game at home, the Phils allow the fewest. The number is just 3.0 rpg coming into tonight when they'll hand the baseball to Vince Velasquez. While he has an 0-3 team start record, that's actually highly misleading. Velasquez has a 2.20 ERA and and 1.225 WHIP during that time as well. While he has not shared in his team's success at home (three of their nine losses here have come w/ Velasquez on the hill), it's only a matter of time before that changes. Last time out, Velasquez went 6+ innings and allowed only one run on five hits. Sadly though, his offense failed to score for him in a 2-0 loss to the Giants. But Velasquez did have nine strikeouts, improving his K/9 innings rate to 12.0 over his L6 starts. The Brewers come in averaging just 2.3 rpg over their L7 contests, so I expect Velasquez to perform well here. Starting for Milwaukee will be Jhoulys Chacin, who has pitched well in his own right. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last six starts and threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings his last time out. But that also came against an anemic White Sox team. Chacin has a 10-3 team start record so far this year, including 6-2 on the road. But his ERA/WHIP away from home are 3.82 and 1.300, pretty pedestrian numbers. Neither team has been at its best of late, but I don't believe the Phillies are getting enough respect from the oddsmakers given their success at home while I'm still skeptical of the Brewers. 8* Philadelphia |
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06-07-18 | Mariners v. Rays +105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Now that the Mariners' win streak came to an end (at 5 games), it's probably a good idea to continue to play against them. I was on Houston last night and if you read my analysis, then you're already aware that I've been pretty steadfast in calling for this team's regression. If you haven't read and are wondering why, well, read on. Tampa Bay has revenge here for a three-game sweep they suffered at the hands of the M's less than a week ago. (That series was contested at Safeco Field). Two of the Mariners' three victories came by one run, and that's part of the larger rationale as to why I think this team is set to regress. They are a MLB-best 18-9 in one-run games so far (6-0 in extra innings) and I simply don't believe that to be sustainable. Despite being 38-23 on the year, they've only outscored the opposition by 21 runs, which works itself out to a win expectancy of 33. No team in baseball has overachieved its expected win total more than this one has. Now the Rays have yet to win a game in June and have lost six in a row overall. They were hammered yday, 11-2, at the hands of the Nationals. But at least that game was contested in the afternoon, allowing them to get a "head start" on this series (Seattle didn't wrap up in Houston until roughly 11 PM ET). Tampa Bay's problem during the losing streak has been pretty simple and it's that they're not scoring. They've been held to three runs or fewer in all six losses, but I'll call for them to break out of that mini-slump tonight. Seattle starter Mike Leake has clearly overachieved in getting to a 4-1 TSR on the road, given his ERA and WHIP are 5.46 and 1.393. Leake did beat the Rays in the last series, but did allow two solo home runs. Obviously, he was fortunate no one was on base either time as the M's won by only a 4-3 margin. The Rays have done a lot better on the run suppression side of the ledger here at home. Opponents are scoring just 3.7 rpg at Tropicana Field while batting a collective .219. Ryan Stanek will get the start tonight, but is expected to go only an inning or two as manager Kevin Cash continues to get creative w/ his staff. In 2 2/3 previous innings vs. Seattle, Stanek hasn't allowed any runs and gave up just one hit. As a "starter" this year, he's gone three innings (two starts) and the last one was some tough luck as he gave up two runs despite only one hit. That followed him going 1 2/3 IP while allowing no hits his first try. Look for Stanek and the Rays to exact revenge against the overrated Mariners tonight. 10* Tampa Bay |
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06-06-18 | Mariners v. Astros -181 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): While last night's result certainly "flew in the face" of my working theory, I'll still cling to the notion that run differential is a far great predictor of future outcomes than is a team's actual won-loss record. Even w/ a surprise 7-1 win last night, the Mariners' cut into the Astros' massive edge in run differential was barely a "drop in the bucket." Seattle might be in first place in the AL West right now (two games up on Houston), but they've only outscored opponents by a meager 23 runs this season (despite a 38-22 record). Meanwhile, the reigning World Series Champs are +116 in run diff, easily the best in all of baseball. I'll again lean on run diff and call for the Astros to earn a split of this short two-game set against their main AL West rival. Just to give you an idea, run differential says the Astros should currently have an 11-game lead over the M's. Instead, they are down two and the respective records in one-run games have a lot to do w/ that. Seattle is a MLB best 18-9 in one-run decisions (not to mention 6-0 in extra inning games), the best such record in all of baseball. On the other hand, Houston is a MLB-worst 4-12 in one-run games. One would suspect that those disparate marks would start to "even out" as the season progresses. Last night may not have been a one-run defeat for the Astros, but does set them up well for a revenge spot. It was just their third loss all season by five runs or greater, two of those coming in the last two games! While Seattle has won 9 of 11 (incl 5 straight), six of those wins have come by exactly one run. Houston had to deal w/ James Paxton yday and he got all the run support he needed early. It was a 6-0 game after the top of the second and that was "all she wrote." Expect better here from Lance McCullers Jr than what we got from Dallas Keuchel last night. McCullers has a 1.97 ERA and 0.906 in his five home starts thus far and has allowed 3 ER or fewer in eight of his last nine starts overall. One of those was vs. Seattle as he dominated at Safeco Field in April, allowing just one hit (a solo HR) over 7 IP. He finished w/ a season-best 11 K's as well. Starting opposite McCullers here is Wade LeBlanc, another of Seattle's surprising starters. LeBlanc has allowed just six runs in his six starts, but has yet to pitch more than six innings. He has a 5.00 career ERA vs. Houston, making three starts and three relief appearances. As for McCullers, he is 6-2 all-time vs. Seattle w/ a 2.75 ERA (10 starts). 8* Houston |
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06-06-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (3:45 ET): There was a welcome sight on the bump last night in AT&T Park. That would be Madison Bumgarner, who made his season debut for the hometown Giants. Unfortunately for the majority in attendance, the end result was a disappointment. The Giants lost, 3-2, which snapped their five-game win streak. Unlike last year's disastrous campaign, the Giants performed admirably w/ MadBum on the DL as they were a .500 team through the first 60 games (despite being outscored by 31 runs). Even after yday's loss, they still only trail the first place D'backs by 2.5 games in the NL West. They beat Arizona on Monday, 10-4, and I like their chances in the rubber match this afternoon as this has generally been a strong offensive team at home. San Fran will send Chris Stratton to the bump this afternoon. They've won each of his last four starts w/ the last one seeing him toss six scoreless innings of four-hit ball (against the Phillies). That was here at home where Stratton is 4-1 in six starts (5-1 TSR). Stratton has pitched against the D'backs once already this season, albeit on the road, and it went very well w/ him allowing just one run on five hits over 7 IP. In fact, the Giants are 3-1 vs. Arizona the L2 seasons w/ Stratton on the mound as he's allowed just eight runs in 24 innings of work (2.64 ERA), making three quality starts. Going back to last season, the Giants are now 10-1 in Stratton's 11 home starts. Though 19-13 at Chase Field, the D'backs are just 13-15 on the road. Homefield advantage would appear to matter here. Taking that a step further, San Francisco has been a pretty bad road team so far (12-20), but is 18-11 at home and averaging above 5.0 rpg here. Today, they'll face Clay Buchholz, who has been shockingly good through three starts. But I remain skeptical. Buchholz may have allowed just 3 ER in 18 IP thus far, but he's gotten to face two of the bottom three offenses (in terms of runs per game). One of those came his last time out as he held Miami, who ranks dead last in MLB in scoring, to just one run over seven innings. Buchholz "scattered" six hits across the outing and also had nine strikeouts, which was nearly double the number he had in his first two starts combined. The Arizona offense has also been rather anemic away from Chase Field, scoring just 3.8 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .212. What's pretty shocking though is that those numbers aren't down too much from where the offense is at overall. The D'backs .217 BA for the year is easily last in all of MLB. The gap between them and the 29th team (Toronto) is actually larger than the gap between the Blue Jays and the #22 team! 8* San Francisco |
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06-06-18 | Brewers v. Indians -179 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (1:10 ET): A battle of division leaders finishing off a brief two-game set here and the home team won yday by a score of 3-2 behind seven strong innings from Corey Kluber. While it maybe fair to call the Indians a "disappointment" at this juncture of the season ("only" 31-28 on the season), trust me when I say that they can easily run away w/ the AL Central, a division which is likely to finish no other .500 team come October. Meanwhile, Milwaukee has been a bit of a surprise so far, at least to me. They may lead the NL Central, but run differential says they're clearly the #2 team in the division behind the Cubs. A 15-6 record in one-run games (NL best) has really propped them up in my view and that's due to change moving forward. Go w/ the Tribe in this one. For years, the American League has dominated Interleague Play (last losing season was '03). Therefore, it's a bit of a surprise to see the Senior Circuit sporting a 48-37 record currently vs the AL. Then again, the AL has only six teams that are more than a game above .500 right now. But Cleveland is one of them and has gone 5-2 vs. the NL this season, including yday's win. They split a pair of games in Milwaukee early last month and have proven themselves to be a better team here at Progressive Field where their record now stands at 19-11 for the year. Today being a day game also helps Cleveland's cause as the Brewers are just 12-12 in day games so far (as opposed to 25-12 at night). The Indians are also averaging a healthy 6.0 rpg at home this season. Starting today for the Tribe will be Carlos Carrasco. A key part of a fearsome rotation LY, Carrasco has struggled a bit here in '18. He's coming off B2B poor outings, but I like his chances here against a Brewers lineup that has been held to three runs in five of its previous six games. Let's also keep in mind that Carrasco was 4-0 through his first five starts w/ a 2.31 ERA. Milwaukee counters w/ Chase Anderson, who is having issues of his own lately. Anderson has allowed 4+ runs in four of his last five outings and the last one did come in an American League park as the Brew Crew lost to the lowly White Sox, 8-3. Anderson again has to face a lineup w/ a DH here and one that's a lot more potent than the White Sox to boot. Even w/ the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup, the Brew Crew can't match the Indians run for run as they're only averaging 4.2 rpg for the year. The Tribe should take this one easily. 6* Cleveland |
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06-05-18 | Mariners v. Astros -120 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:10 ET): This series will put to the test my theory that run differential is a far better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. For Seattle, who is in first place in the AL West, is only +17 in run diff for the season despite the 37-22 record. Houston, just two games back in the loss column, has outscored its opponents by a MLB-best 122 runs. Moving forward, I expect the Astros to run away w/ this division for a second straight year. I also like them tonight in the start of a key three-game set. They took three of four from the Mariners up in Safeco Field back in April. This series is a chance to teach the M's "who's boss" in the AL West. Pitching has been the Astros' calling card so far this season w/ the team giving up only 2.9 runs per game. Surprisingly though, former Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel is no better than third in the rotation at this point and actually might be the weakest of the five! Keuchel has struggled some of late, but didn't when he faced Seattle earlier this year, tossing a complete game and giving up just two runs on six hits. Unfortunately though, James Paxton was better and the Mariners won the game, 2-1. But Keuchel, who defeated Seattle three times last season, still sports a career 2.67 ERA against this opponent and I believe he'll pitch well tonight as he has done for most of his career at Minute Maid Park. He has a 1.097 WHIP in five home starts so far this season. Paxton has been really good for the surprising M's as he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 10 of 12 starts, including seven in a row. Therefore, given the team's success, you'd expect Paxton to have a better TSR than 7-5. The key to the fact Seattle is ahead of Houston in the standings has been one-run games. The Mariners are 18-9 in such games (best record in MLB) and 9 of their last 13 victories have come by that exact margin. Simply put, that's not sustainable. Houston is 4-12 in one-run games (worst in MLB!), but 16-2 when the game is decided by five runs or more. Based on expected win total, the Astros should have a 12-game lead on the Mariners in the division right now. That discrepancy will start to get rectified tonight. 10* Houston |
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06-05-18 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Oakland (8:05 ET): Even though run differential clearly states that Houston is the best team (and I would concur!), the AL West is shaping up to be a suprisingly competitive race w/ four teams currently above .500. Texas would be the outlier as they are 12 games below the Mendoza Line and have given up the second most runs in all of baseball. The gap between them and fourth place Oakland is larger than the gap that exists between the A's and first place Seattle! Starting today, the A's and Rangers play a three-game set in Arlington. They played seven times in the month of April with the teams splitting a four game set in Oakland and then the A's took two of three here at Globe Life Park. Oakland would seem to have a rather decided edge on the mound this evening and I'll side w/ them. Sean Manaea toes the rubber tonight for the visiting team, bringing in a disappointing 6-6 team start record. I say "disappointing" because despite a string of recent subpar efforts, his WHIP for the season is still 0.973. While he's allowed 4 or more runs in six consecutive starts, note he allowed 2 or fewer in each of the first six! So which half-dozen start sample size is more indicative of the way Manaea will pitch moving forward? I say the first. Remember he threw a no-hitter during that stretch. Texas is not a strong offensive team as the team is batting a collective .225 its L20 games w/ only two hitters above .250 during that time. When Manaea faced the Rangers earlier in the year, he held them to just one run on three hits over eight innings. Maybe Manaea has struggled some of late, but that's nothing compared to the kind of season starter Matt Moore is having for the Rangers. Moore has an 8.02 ERA and 2.022 WHIP for the season (10 starts) and has allowed fewer than three runs just once. He's also lasted six full innings only one time this season. He's given up five runs in B2B starts and this Texas offense shouldn't be counted on for much support. I talked about the batting average above, plus they've scored a total of only five runs the last four games. Oakland has won three of its last four games, including a 16-0 win over KC on Friday. For the season, the A's are averaging 5.5 rpg on the road (#3 in MLB) while the Rangers are giving up 6.0 rpg at home (29th, trailing only Colorado). 8* Oakland |
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06-03-18 | Dodgers -138 v. Rockies | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (3:10 ET): Anyone who follows my picks on a regular basis knows that I'm pretty clear about the notion of a team's scoring differential being a better predictor of future success than the actual won-loss record (this goes for any sport). So, I can't say I'm surprised that the change in the NL West that run differentials foretold is starting to take hold this weekend at Coors Field. The Rockies fall out of first place in the division was pretty easy to predict if you'd noticed that they'd actually been outscored by a pretty healthy margin over the course of the season. They've dropped the first two games of the series and now sport a YTD run differential of -28. Meanwhile, the Dodgers (who I had in the first game (on Friday)) own the division's best run differential at +34. They are a fourth place team "in name only" and I'll call for them to finish off the sweep Sunday afternoon. The Dodgers have taken advantage of the thin air of Coors Field to score 23 runs in the first two games. A eight-run seventh was the difference in last night's victory as they improved to 4-1 head to head vs. the Rockies this season. Alex Wood gets the start today and while he has just one win in 11 starts, that's highly misleading. Wood has pitched pretty decently (1.043 WHIP), save for his last outing when he gave up three home runs in a loss to San Diego. But prior to that, he'd allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts. He's allowed three runs or less in 8 of his 11 starts overall. Note that Wood is working on extended rest here as he was initially set to start Friday's opener, but that got pushed back. That aforementioned last start in San Diego came last Saturday or eight days ago. Strangely, the Rockies have NOT been hitting well in their home park this season. More or less, this is a franchise defined by Coors Field, skewing both its hitting and pitching numbers rather dramatically when it comes to home vs. road splits. They are up to 5.0 rpg at home this year, but at the same time they're also giving up 5.8. As a result, the home record is only 11-14. The Dodgers, winners of 12 of their last 16 overall, are currently on a six-game win streak on the road. Starting today for Colorado will be Chad Bettis, who has been just plain awful so far at Coors. He has a 7.06 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in four starts here, far different than what we've seen from him outside this tricky environment. Last time out, Bettis allowed five runs on 10 hits here to a pretty weak hitting San Francisco team. He's allowed a total of 12 runs on 20 hits in his last two starts here, which have spanned only 11 innings. Strikeout numbers also remain unimpressive for Bettis, who has a 6.95 ERA his L4 starts overall while allowing an .869 OPS. Opposing hitters are batting .315 against him during that span. 8* LA Dodgers |
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06-03-18 | Cubs v. Mets +140 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): I can't say that I'm terribly surprised to see the Cubs having come into Citi Field and taken the first three games of this four-game set. After all, their NL-best run differential (now +91) indicated that a run was forthcoming. However, as I talked about in Thursday's winner on the A's (against Tampa Bay), it's very hard for a road team to come in and sweep a four-game series. So, it's time to step in and grab the Mets at what I feel is an inflated price Sunday. Last night marked a brutal loss for the home team as they fell 7-1 in 14 innings. That despite their pitchers striking 24 Cubs hitters out over the course of the game! It's a quick turnaround, but history indicates the Mets will avoid the sweep here. That 11-1 start to the season for the Mets is now a distant memory as the club has gone just 16-28 its L44 games under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan. They've dropped 8 of their last 10. Both teams had ample reasons to be frustrated over last night, but particularly the Mets as they wasted a great start from Jacob deGrom and also left the bases loaded in the bottom of the 13th. All told, they stranded 11 baserunners in the game. Today's starter Steven Matz is not as strong as deGrom, but I feel has the capability to get the job done. Remember; the Cubs did strikeout 24 (!!) times yday. Matz did exit his last start early (after three scoreless innings) due to a middle finger strain. However, he threw his usual bullpen session on Friday and is ready to go. Matz hasn't allowed a single run over his last 9 IP and has allowed 1 ER or fewer in four of his last five turns. The Cubs will turn to Jon Lester here, making it a battle of southpaws on the mound. Lester had been pitching well before his last start when he gave up four runs in six innings against Pittsburgh. The Cubs still won the game mind you, 8-6, but it was far from the veteran Lester's "finest hour" as he gave up two home runs. Something to keep in mind when Lester starts is that the Cubs basically have an eight-hitter lineup. For his career, Lester is a .094 hitter. Matz isn't Ty Cobb by any means, but he's at least better than .094. The Cubs have only two win streaks longer than three games this year (both 5) and the last one came at the expense of the White Sox and Marlins, possibly the two worst teams in baseball. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost more than three in a row only one time this season and that was at the start of May. 8* NY Mets |
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06-02-18 | Rangers +161 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 161 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
8* Texas (9:05 ET): Well, the Rangers certainly didn't work out last night (my only loss) as they lost 6-0 here in LA, dropping to 0-4 head to head YTD vs. the Angels in the process. But that won't stop me from grabbing them at a greatly inflated price here tonight. It's tough to sweep the same opponent two times, especially if it's a division rival, so it's only a matter of time before Texas breaks through in this AL West battle. I feel tonight's the night as Cole Hamels toes the rubber. Hamels has pitched very well in the past here in Anaheim, posting a 2.16 ERA in five starts and never allowing more than 2 ER. The Angels are still -7.5 units for the season at home (13-17 overall). Last night marked just the second time all season that the Rangers were shutout. The only previous occasion was on 5.20 vs. the White Sox. They would respond by scoring 33 runs over the next three games. I like the chances of a similar outburst taking shape starting tonight as they face Garrett Richards. Richards has not beaten Texas since September of 2015, going 0-3 in five starts since. Richards is also 0-3 his L3 starts overall coming into tonight's game, due in large part to a 1.465 WHIP. He had five walks in his last start as he lasted only 2 1/3 innings against the Yankees. That ended up being a 3-1 loss for the Halos, who have scored a total of just four runs in Richards' last three starts as well. The Angels' offense is still averaging only 3.9 rpg at home this season w/ a .223 batting average. Richards has a 4.21 ERA at home as well. Over the L3 seasons, the team is only 8-17 when coming off a shutout win. Though he struggled in his last start (gave up five runs to KC), Hamels is still deserving of a far better team start record than his current 3-8. Prior to struggling Sunday, he'd allowed 2 ER or fewer five times in a row (allowed just nine runs total in 30 1/3 IP). He was priced at -190 on the ML in his last start, so this seems like a really good value. In his last road start, he outdueled Houston's Justin Verlander (won 1-0) to cash at +225 on the ML! The Angels did not have to face Hamels in the previous series between the teams, back in April. Texas did face Richards however, and while they lost, they did draw five walks and the Angels started exited after just 4 1/3 innings of work. Richards has made it past the sixth in only two of his last six starts while Hamels routinely pitches deep into games. Also, the Rangers' bullpen actually did a good job last night, not allowing any runs over the final five innings. 8* Texas |
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06-02-18 | Blue Jays -129 v. Tigers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -129 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toronto (4:05 ET): Since getting off to a 13-6 start to the season, it's been "tough sledding" for the Blue Jays. They're a money-burning 12-26 the L38 games and the current losing streak has hit four following last night's 5-2 setback here in Detroit. (They've also lost 11 of 14). Meanwhile, the Tigers have now won five of their last six, including three in a row. But I look for a "reversal of fortune" this afternoon in the Motor City. It's a "sign o' the times" when your manager says about your starting pitcher: "(Jaime) is going to be successful when he throws the ball over the plate." That's what Toronto skipper John Gibbons had to say about yday's starter Jaime Garcia, but Saturday finds him handing the baseball to J.A. Happ, who has been red hot on the mount of late. Happ is 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.74 ERA and 0.774 WHIP. The last time Toronto won, Happ was the one pitching, leading his team to a 5-3 victory at Philadelphia. There he went 6 2/3 innings and allowed just three runs (one unearned) w/ eight strikeouts. It was his third straight quality outing, a stretch that has seen him produce a 23-5 KW ratio w/ no HR's allowed. Happ has now allowed 3 ER or fewer in six of his last seven turns and has become Toronto's best starter. He's pitched well in the past vs. the Tigers, going 3-1 w/ 3.74 ERA in eight career outings. Detroit does have Miguel Cabrera back in the lineup and is averaging 5.0 rpg at home this year. But I'm not buying into any goose (look it up!) or really this team, long-term. The Blue Jays do struggle to hit left-handed pitching (.224 BA) and this is a battle of southpaws here w/ Happ being opposed by Matthew Boyd. Boyd threw five scoreless innings his last time out and is having every bit the good season that Happ is having. Only Happ's team start record of 8-3 is better than Boyd's 5-5. Boyd also doesn't have the most impressive strikeout numbers as he has just four total (all of those coming in his last start) against seven walks. He's lasted a total of only nine innings in his last two starts - combined. I think it's telling that Toronto has been priced on this range, on the road, and I'll "follow the money." 8* Toronto |
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06-01-18 | Phillies v. Giants +104 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 104 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): The Giants were dead last LY in net units (-37.2) in a disaster of a campaign that saw them never really "get out of the blocks." Despite being w/o Madison Bumgarner again at the start of the season, 2018 has gone better for them as the team is a respectable 26-30, even though their -49 run differential indicates that record should be worse. Tonight though, they have some revenge to exact against Philadelphia, who earlier this year swept them in a four-game series. The rematch will be contested out on the West Coast though and that's significant considering the Phillies are below .500 on the road. After an off-day, the revenge-minded Giants should break through against the Phils Friday night. After dropping six of seven, SF finally came through on Wednesday, beating the Colorado Rockies by a score of 7-4. Note that the recent schedule has been pretty challenging for the Giants. They wrapped up May by taking on the Rockies (first place in the NL West) twice and also the Cubs and Astros, who have the top run differentials in the respective leagues. Not to undersell Philadelphia, who has emerged as a playoff contender out of the NL East. The Phillies are a better team than the Rockies, but not in the same class as the other two previous Giants' opponents. Looking at that previous sweep, it was a dominant performance by the Phils (outscored SF 35-8), but that was at home where they've gone 19-9. On the road, they average less than four runs per game. Another key in that previous series is the Giants were very banged up. Three players that were on the DL at the time - Joe Panik, Hunter Pence and Hunter Strickland - are all set to return this weekend, possibly as early as tonight. This is also a starting pitching rematch of one of those four games w/ Chase Stratton facing Nick Pivetta. Both have 8-3 team starts records, but Pivetta has the better numbers. That said, Stratton hasn't lost for the Giants since his awful showing in Philly, going 3-0 his L3 starts. Pivetta has been sharp, but also doesn't often go longer than five innings. The Giants aren't a good road team, but are 14-10 at home and they're not getting swept again by the Phillies this weekend. 8* San Francisco |
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06-01-18 | Dodgers -102 v. Rockies | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 38 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (8:40 ET): Run differential is often the best predictor of future outcomes, as opposed to a team's actual won-loss record. Now, many times a team's number of wins "matches up" well w/ its run differential thereby "justifying" its record. However, other times it does not. Case in point, Colorado being a first place team in the NL West at 30-26. They've been outscored by 17 runs over the course of the season. On the flip side, the Dodgers are having quite the unlucky season. They have their division's best run differential (+23), yet are in fourth place at 26-30. Arizona is a rival that's given them plenty of trouble this year (4-8 head to head record), so they can't let the same thing happen w/ Colorado. Fortunately, they took two of three from the Rockies at Chavez Ravine last month. I see them starting this series w/ a win as well. The Dodgers' poor luck continued yday w/ not only a 2-1 loss to the Phillies, but Clayton Kershaw having to exit early due to an injury. Making his return to the rotation after biceps tendinits cost him nearly a month, the former Cy Young winner now has back issues. Tonight the team will have to rely on Alex Wood. While Wood's TSR is just 1-4 after 11 starts (and he pitched poorly his last time out), that record is not really indicative of how he's performed over the balance of the season. He has a 1.043 WHIP overall, including 1.020 on the road where his ERA is also 2.88. Wood has allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his starts this year. Colorado has won 10 of its last 14, but a franchise that has largely been defined by its home park (throughout its existence) has not performed as well as you might think at Coors Field in 2018. Especially at the plate. Shockingly, they are averaging less than 5.0 rpg here and being outscored for the season. They have a losing home record (11-13) as well. Starter Tyler Anderson has struggled of late too, posting a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP his L3 starts. That's facing some pretty weak opponents as well (Reds, Padres, Giants). Note there's a chance LA does NOT start Wood here and goes w/ a "by committee" approach, but in that case, the play still stands as I lean heavily to what the respective run differentials of the two teams say. 10* LA Dodgers |
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05-31-18 | Cubs -157 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (7:10 ET): The Cubs may have missed out on a chance to sweep the Pirates yesterday (lost 2-1), but I like the team's chances this weekend in Queens, particularly in tonight's series opener. In terms of gaps between expected (based on run differential) and actual wins, these two clubs happen to own two of the largest, albeit on opposite sides of the ledger. The Cubs are already starting to make their move in the NL Central (now in second place), but a +76 run differential (NL's best!) indicates that even "better times" are forthcoming. Meanwhile, the Mets' 11-1 start is largely a "distant memory" as they've been outscored by 16 runs on the season and gone just 16-25 since under first year skipper Mickey Callahan. Cubs win, Cubs win today. Other than the Astros (who have baseball's best run differential), no team has "underperformed" in terms of actual wins and losses more than the Cubs. Based on them outscoring their opponents by 76 runs this year, we should "expect" 34 wins out of them at this point. They have only 29. I'm not concerned though and fully expect Joe Maddon's team to start asserting itself. We'd already started to see signs with a three-game win streak going into yesterday where the offense totaled 23 runs and 39 hits. They had no answer for the Pirates' Joe Musgrove yday, but facing the Mets' Seth Lugo (making 1st start of season) tonight should be a different story. Lugo is only in a starter's role here due to Noah Syndergaard being on the 10-day DL. We last saw him in a relief role on Monday as he allowed three runs in 1 1/3 innings to Atlanta and took the loss. Over the L7 games, the Mets have allowed an average of 6.6 rpg w/ opponents batting .303. Yikes! Lugo is only expected to go 50-60 pitches here. The Cubs are only 14-12 on the road this season, but "should" have a much better record given that they've outscored their opponents by almost two full runs per game outside of Wrigley. The pitching staff has limited opposing hitters to a .215 average on the road, which is really impressive. Jose Quintana gets the starting nod here and while he's failed get past the fifth inning in three of his five May starts, it's not like he's been pitching that poorly. It was the second time through the order that got him Saturday vs. San Francisco, but prior to that he'd tossed 10 straight scoreless innings of one-hit ball w/ 13 K's. In two career starts vs. the Mets, Quintana has a 1.93 ERA. The Cubs are 13-8 off a loss this season and I like them quite a bit Friday. 8* Chi Cubs |
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05-31-18 | Rays v. A's -138 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oakland (3:35 ET): This series has certainly not gone well for the home team as they've dropped three in a row to the visiting Rays. The first two losses were both by one run, but last night was much uglier as the A's fell 6-0 as they were no-hit for six innings by Nathan Eovaldi (who was then pulled!), someone who had not pitched at the big-league level in almost two years (two Tommy John surgeries). To add insult to injury, there weren't even many people there to witness the game. The announced attendence was 6,295, the lowest number in Oakland since '03. With today's finale being a day game, it should be another sparse crowd, but those who do venture to the ballpark will be rewarded w/ a win by the home team. I say that due to the fact the A's have their best pitcher going Thursday afternoon and you just don't see teams get swept at home in four-game series very often. Despite losing each of the last three days, Oakland is still a .500 team on the season. That includes a 7-4 record when Mengden starts as he's gone 3-0 his L3 outings w/ some ridiculous numbers, like a 0.41 ERA and 0.591 WHIP. He's coming off B2B scoreless efforts (16 IP) including a complete game two-hit shutout of Arizona on Saturday. Prior to that, he also allowed just two hits over seven scoreless innings in a win at Toronto. Going back further, Mengden has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, including five straight. He's allowed just four runs over his last 33 2/3 IP. While strikeout numbers are by no means dominant, he did induce 13 outs via groundball last time out, which is typically a good sign. Now the Oakland offense is going to have to "wake up" here as they've been shutout twice in the series and scored just three runs in 31 total innings vs. Rays pitching. Fortunately, the team's home run leader (Khris Davis) is expected to be back in the lineup today. While the home run ball hasn't really been a problem for the A's during Davis' absence (they've hit five - but all were solo shots), still they've scored just 15 total runs in nine games w/o him. Tampa Bay continues to be extremely creative w/ its pitching staff (like it!) and has actually used 12 different arms in this series. Today, they'll go w/ Ryne Stanek as the starter for just the second time all season. His first start was Saturday, but he faced only five batters (retired them all). He also pitched on Monday, in relief, and got the win thanks to 1 2/3 scoreless innings. As creative as TB skipper Kevin Cash has been, I don't see the Rays "solving" Mengden and the A's avoid the sweep. 10* Oakland |
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05-30-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers -171 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Well, after they came from behind to "steal" the series opener Monday night, turns out that it was a mistake jumping on the Dodgers' bandwagon Tuesday as they fell 6-1 to the Phillies. Given that they scored all of one run the entire game, maybe this didn't matter, but starter Kenta Maeda had to leave early (in the second inning) and to me that was the clear culprit in what ended up being a bad night. Facing a red-hot Jake Arrieta didn't help matters either for Dodger Blue. But this team is still due for better results, given it has not only outscored its opponents this season, but also owns the best run differential in the entire NL West! They've dug themselves a bit of a hole to start the season, but it's not something that they can't climb out of. Last night's win was just the second for the Phillies in the L3 seasons at Chavez Ravine. Granted, they haven't been very good the last two years. But this team, despite its "breakthrough success" early on in 2018, is surprisingly just 14-15 off a win so far and has a losing road record. There's no Arrieta to lean on tonight as it will instead by Zach Eflin on the bump. Eflin has lasted only 4 2/3 innings each of his last two starts and has given up a total of 10 runs. Three of those were unearned, but there's really no sugarcoating his last time out when he gave up six runs (five earned) to an American League opponent (Toronto) that was sans its DH. The Dodgers counter w/ Ross Stripling, who is only in the starting rotation due to injuries suffered by both Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill. However, Stripling has certainly pitched as if he "belongs" in this starting group as he's averaging a very impressive 10.89 K's per nine innings. Over his L3 starts, he has a 26-0 KW ratio over 18 IP. He's allowed just four runs total his last four starts (one unearned) and now has a 1.74 ERA in 41 1/3 innings of work. Last time out may have been his sharpest performance to date as he threw 10 K's in 6 2/3 innings and gave up just an unearned run. He's also allowed zero home runs over those last four starts. Stripling has a much better WHIP than Eflin recently (0.889 vs. 1.437 L3 starts respectively) and I see the Dodgers going up in this series. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals -116 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -116 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (1:10 ET): The NL Central looks to have the potential to be the tightest pennant race this season w/ every team - sans Cincinnati - having a legit shot at winning the division. Two of the four teams in question play a rubber match this afternoon after splitting a pair of battles Monday and Tuesday. The Brewers are in first place right now, at least 3.5 games up on the rest of the field, which includes St. Louis. But the Cards won here yday, in pretty dominant fashion, by a score of 6-1. That put them four games back of the division lead and in third place. My view on the Brew Crew is that they are being "artificially" propped up by a rather fortunate 14-5 record in one run games (best in MLB), not to mention they're also 4-1 in extra inning affairs. I look for their "luck" to take a turn for the worse moving forward and I believe they'll lose this series finale. Milwaukee had won four in a row going into yday, but quickly found itself down to the Redbirds on Tuesday and never really got back in the game. Three home runs, plus 6 2/3 strong innings from starter Michael Wacha, keyed the St. Louis victory which was their third in the last four games. Today, we'll see Alex Reyes make his first big-league start since 2016. He missed all of LY due to Tommy John surgery, but his minor league performance should give St. Louis plenty of reason for optimism. Reyes has pitched 23 scoreless innings "down on the farm" while striking out an incredible 44 of the 82 batters he faced (allowed only 14 baserunners)! That sounds a lot like his 2016 performance when he struck out 52 in 46 IP w/ a 1.57 ERA. Like I said, there's plenty of reasons to be excited here. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra survived allowing two solo home runs in his last start and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season. But his strikeout numbers remain pretty unimpressive while his walk totals are pretty high. Over his L3 starts, he has a KW ratio of only 10-6 and that's w/ no free passes his last time out. The team has actually not done that well w/ Guerra on the hill, going only 2-4 his last six starts after winning each of his first three. He's already faced St. Louis already this season and allowed just one run in 5 1/3 IP. But in five career starts against them, his ERA is still just 4.74. While these division rivals have split eight games so far this season, three of the Cards' four wins have been by four runs or more while Milwaukee's four wins have come by eight runs total (three by one run). 8* St. Louis |
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05-29-18 | Marlins v. Padres -146 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Endorsements of the Padres this season will be few and far between, but this series represents one of the few times they'll be favored on the money line, and for good reason, as they're at home facing an opponent that is actually inferior on paper. Now Miami did come in and take yday's series opener, by a score of 7-2. But this Marlins team is really bad and I love the idea of fading them off a win. Not only do the Fish own one of the worst records in the entire National League (20-33), they also have the worst run differential (-90) in all of baseball. As bad as things have been for them so far this season, one could argue that they should be even worse. Case in point, they're somehow 10-15 on the road despite being outscored by 2.2 rpg! Because they are almost always underdogs, the Marlins have actually not dropped many units at the pay windown (only -1.3 for the season). By far, their most profitable starter has been Dan Straily, who will get the baseball tonight. The team has won all five Straily starts this season, even though his numbers haven't exactly been dominant. We're talking a 3.12 ERA and a pretty pedestrian 1.38 WHIP. He is a pretty remarkable +7.5 units for the year after cashing as a +210 dog on the money line against Jacob deGrom and the Mets his last time out. But I don't see it lasting. His KW ratio (for the season) is an unimpressive 19-17. Miami is just 7-12 off a win this season. San Diego will counter w/ its best pitcher on Tuesday, that being Tyson Ross. The team has gone 7-3 in Ross' 10 starts so far this season, including a perfect 3-0 here at home. His recent string of performances (he has a 1.93 ERA and 1.071 WHIP) has led to trade speculation, but while the Padres still have him, they might as well take advantage. Last time out, Ross allowed just 1 ER (on on a solo HR) and 5 hits in 6 2/3 IP. He also struck out nine batters, nearly half the number we've seen Straily strike out in his five outings this year. Earlier, I talked about the Padres not being favored on the ML very often. Well, they are a perfect 2-0 in 2018 as a home fave in the -125 to -175 range. They're also 16-5 in that same range the L3 seasons! 8* San Diego |
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05-29-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers -158 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -158 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): For a Dodgers team that has had no luck (except the bad kind!) in 2018, last night was most definitely a welcome result. Down 4-0 to the Phillies after just two innings, they easily could have chalked things up as "another loss," but instead they came all the way back to win, 5-4, thanks to a three-run eighth. While Dodger Blue is still sitting below .500 (at 25-28), they do continue to own the NL West's best run differential (now +23), which bodes well for their future. If it wasn't for such a poor head to head mark w/ the D'backs, they'd certainly already be ahead of them and first place Colorado looks especially vulnerable given its own -21 run differential. I expect the Dodgers to win tonight and continue to move up the division standings. Philadelphia has fallen to third in a competitive NL East that includes surprising Atlanta and stalwart Washington. They've dropped four of six overall and it's been nearly two weeks since they won B2B games. One area in need of improvement is their play on the road. They enter this game having lost 13 of 23 away from home this year (71-114 L3 seasons) and have been outscored by 0.6 rpg. The offense batting a collective .220 in road games certainly doesn't help. Tuesday starter Jake Arrieta has had his own personal struggles as well. He has a 5.12 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in four road starts so far w/ the team going 1-3. He made it through only three innings the last time he started a road game. Save for a no-hitter back in '15, Arrieta has never won here at Dodgers Stadium, coming up short in the other four tries. The Dodgers counter here w/ Kenta Maeda, who is on a roll. He's coming off B2B scoreless efforts (14 2/3 IP total) w/ 20 K's and only four total hits allowed. Over the L7 games, LA pitching has held opponents to a .196 batting average and run suppression has generally never been a problem for them here at Chavez Ravine. For the season, they allow just 3.8 rpg here and a .232 BA. Maeda didn't allow a hit through five innings last time out and induced 19 swinging strikes. His strikeout rate this season (11.7 batters per nine innings) would qualify as a career-best and his 12 K's in that last start were a career-best for any individual outing. I'm still a believer in this Dodgers club, moreso than Philly, and am "all in" on them Tuesday. 10* LA Dodgers |
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05-28-18 | Angels -158 v. Tigers | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (1:10 ET): I played the Angels both Friday and Saturday and won both times. Now the run line came in handy in Friday's game as they lost to the Yankees by one run. After winning Saturday, 11-4, they reverted back w/ a 3-1 loss on Sunday. The team is now 1-8 head to head w/ the Red Sox and Yankees in 2018, but 28-16 against everyone else. Fortunately for them, they're now done with the top two from the AL East w/ the exception of a series in Beantown next month. This week is the proverbial "drop in class" as they'll take on the Tigers and Rangers. Up first is a visit to Detroit. Considering LA is still 17-7 on the road and the Tigers aren't a very good team, I'll gladly throw my support behind the visitors in this one. LA has pushed back Shohei Ohtani's next start in an effort to decrease the two-way phenom's workload. It would appear as if he's in line to toe the rubber Wednesday. That means he'll DH Monday while Tyler Skaggs gets the starting nod. Skaggs has struck out six or more batters in five straight outings (35 total in 27 2/3 IP) against just eight walks. He's unbeaten on the road (3-0 in five starts) w/ a 1.88 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. Really, Skaggs has pitched better than his TSR (5-5 indicates) as he's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of his 10 starts. The offense should produce more w/ both Ohtani and Mike Trout in the lineup today. If the former is getting the start Weds, then he'll be given off Tuesday as per usual. The latter had a career night at the plate Saturday, going 5 for 5 w/ four extra base hits. Detroit is off the rare winning weekend, but keep in mind they were playing the White Sox. I played against them Saturday when they lost 8-4. The Tigers have been a winning proposition here at Comerica Park so far this season, but I'm not convinced that will last. Matt Boyd gets the baseball Monday and while he's pitched well here (0.945 WHIP in four starts), his last outing (was on the road) was certainly an interesting one. It lasted just four innings and while he allowed just one hit, he actually gave up two runs as he had control issues (four walks). On top of that, he didn't strike a single batter out. The Angels are the better team here and I expect them to come in and show that Monday afternoon. 8* LA Angels |
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05-28-18 | Astros -127 v. Yankees | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:05 ET): The Astros may have had to settle for a split in Cleveland over the weekend (4-game series), including a 14-inning loss on a Sunday. But there's no denying that the defending World Series Champs are a very good team. That's confirmed by a MLB-best +122 run differential (45 runs better than #2 team), which says their 34-20 record should be even better (run differential of a 42-12 team). Armed w/ revenge and perhaps the top pitcher in baseball so far in '18, I like them Monday afternoon at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees took three of four from the 'Stros to start the month, including a pair of shutouts, but I see a very different result taking place in this series opener. Let's talk a bit about Verlander, shall we? With 10 quality starts in 11 tries, he leads all of MLB in both ERA (1.08) and WHIP (0.71). So its pretty stunning his team start record is only 7-4, which works out to money-losing proposition (-2.5 units). It's only a matter of time before that works itself out. Verlander has allowed more than 2 ER in only one start and that was back on April 3rd. Since then, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in eight of nine starts, including all five here in May! He did pitch in the previous series vs. the Yankees and was absolutely dominant. He tossed eight scoreless innings of three-hit ball w/ 14 strikeouts! Unfortunately, the bullpen and offense betrayed him in what ended up being a 4-0 loss. After tossing a complete game, five-hit shutout on 5.16 vs. the Angels, Verlander closed north of -300 on the money line in his last start and responded in kind by allowing just one run on three hits. The Astros won (over the Giants) 3-1. After starting the season 26-10, the Yankees have gone just 7-6 the L13 games. They did take two of three from the Angels over the weekend, doing Houston a favor in the process, but were actually outscored in the series. That's thanks to losing the middle game, 11-4. (Both wins, 2-1 on Friday and 3-1 Sunday, were quite low-scoring). Having Domingo German start opposite Verlander seems like the definition of a mismatch. German has allowed 6 ER in B2B outings. That's more than Verlander has allowed this season in his 11 starts! The Astros are 18-9 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by more than a 2:1 margin. I realize that they were able to beat up on a beleaguered Indians bullpen in the last series, but w/ Verlander on the bump today, they shouldn't need much offense. The best team in baseball w/ perhaps the best pitcher in baseball sounds like a good bet to me! The number of times from here on out that we can get Verlander at this price will be few and far between, if non-existent. 10* Houston |
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05-27-18 | Giants v. Cubs -175 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The Cubs lost to the Giants last night, so I'm basically willing to back them at any decent price Sunday night and fortunately the oddsmakers are giving us one. Despite currently languishing in fourth place in the crowded NL Central, the Cubs actually own the division's best run differential (+65) - by a pretty wide margin. In fact, that's the best run differential in the entire National League! Meanwhile, the Giants might only be two games below .500, but they've been outscored by 39 runs on the season. So what we have here is one of baseball's biggest underachievers and overachievers, in terms of record vs. scoring differential, facing off. In such instances, I'll almost always side w/ the team that has the better run differential. I just can't see the Cubs dropping two in a row here at Wrigley to the Giants. Yu Darvish was set to start this game for the Cubbies, but he's back on the DL w/ right triceps tendinitis. Darvish signed a big deal in the offeseason, but there might already be some "buyer's remorse" here given he's only 1-3 w/ a 4.95 ERA. So the fact he'll be absent from the mound tonight really does not concern me. Instead, Tyler Chatwood moves up a day to take the spot in the rotation. Chatwood's team start record is only 3-6 and he has a 1.620 WHIP, but he figures to pitch better here than he did vs. Cleveland on Tuesday where he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. Chatwood has largely been immune to the home run ball, giving up only two all season, and the Giants are hardly the most fearsome offense in the game. In fact, on the road this season, they are averaging just 3.2 runs per game. In 16 career starts, Chatwood has a 2.84 ERA vs. the Giants The win yday snapped a three-game skid for San Francisco where they had scored all of five runs. They twice rallied from deficits, 2-0 and 3-2, to get the win. But I don't see them following that up w/ another win as Ty Blach is starting and he's not been good at all this season as is evident by a 7.11 ERA and 1.896 WHIP his L3 starts. He's failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of those three starts, yet has still given up 12 runs. Shockingly though, the team is 5-1 his L6 starts. The Giants are still just 11-17 on the road though, getting outscored by 1.5 runs per game. 6* Chi Cubs |
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05-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's -147 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
10* Oakland (4:05 ET): Arizona snapped what had been an ugly seven-game slide w/ a 7-1 win in Oakland last night. But I don't look for the good times to last here for the D'backs as their up against Daniel Mengden Saturday afternoon and a ML underdog for good reason. Mengden's 4-4 record (6-4 TSR) is in no way indicative of the way he's pitched for the A's as he comes into this game carrying a 3.30 ERA and 1.081 WHIP. He's been even sharper of late w/ a 1.37 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. During their losing streak, Arizona wasn't scoring many runs (just 12 total!), so this would certainly appear to be a bad matchup for them on paper. Not even the addition of the designated hitter to their lineup can save them here. The D'backs are a team I expected to regress in 2018. I think that's a pretty logical take considering last year saw them jump from 69 wins (in '16) to 93 and a surprising Wild Card berth. In no way am I intimating that they'll drop to 2016 levels, but certainly they won't be hitting last season's win total either. Now, I recognize I looked pretty foolish early on as they were 20-8 at the end of April. But then came what we'll call a rather huge "market correction." Not only had the club dropped seven in a row going into yday; they'd lost 13 of 14 overall! They scored two runs or fewer in 11 of those 14 games, including the lone win (2-1 over Milwaukee on 5.15). They've now fallen out of first place in the NL West as they currently trail the Rockies by one-half game. Though the offense was able to "break out" last night, I don't see that happening again today against Mengden, who has given up 2 ER or fewer in six of his last seven outings. He's off arguably his best; having thrown seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball at Toronto Sunday. While his strikeout numbers are far from dominant, the bottom line is he's allowed just four runs this month, in 24 2/3 IP. I don't see Clay Buchholz, who is starting for just the second time this year, matching him. Buchholz made his season debut on Sunday and while he pitched well (allowed just one run on two hits), the D'backs still lost, wasting that effort. Buchholz has never pitched well here in Oakland (9.58 ERA in three career starts) and remains a huge question mark having gone 13 months in between big-league starts. 10* Oakland |
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05-26-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Pirates | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (4:05 ET): The Cardinals dropped to 0-4 head to head w/ the Pirates this season as they had a poor showing last night here at PNC Park, losing 8-1. In a crowded NL Central field (absent Cincinnati), such a poor head to head mark against any division rival could come back to haunt you. St. Louis is currently fourth out of the four-team logjam, but just four games out of first place. They're only one game back of the second place Pirates, despite the 0-4 record, so they're lucky there. I can't see the Cards getting swept again by the Bucs this weekend, so I'm back on them today as the revenge angle continues to be prevalent. Overall, the Cardinals have now dropped three in a row. Prior to last night's series opener, they'd embarrassingly dropped two at home to the lowly Royals. This is the third three-game skid for the Cards so far in 2018. The good news is that they have yet to lose four in a row. Over the L3 seasons, they are 23-8 when on a losing streak of three or more games. Charged w/ being the "stopper" here is Jack Flaherty, who has pitched well for them of late. Flaherty was flat out dominant in his last start, striking out 13 over 7 2/3 innings and giving up just one run on two hits against a good Phillies team. Flaherty has allowed 1 ER in three of his four starts this year. Ironically, the one he did not was against Pittsburgh, but even then, he gave up only three. Flaherty's WHIP over his L3 starts is an impressive 0.927. Now runs may be tough to come by for the Redbirds as well considering they're up against Trevor Williams, who has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 13 of his last 15 starts here at home (dating back to last season). Williams did outduel Flaherty last month, giving up just two runs over six innings. But I don't see that result repeating itself here as I'm simply not a believer in this Bucs team long-term. They'd lost five of six coming into this series w/ those games coming against two last place teams: San Diego and Cincinnati. All were here at home as well. St. Louis is too good (and too proud) to be swept for a second time by the Pirates. 8* St. Louis |
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05-25-18 | Twins v. Mariners -185 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): While I remain unsold on the Mariners long-term (too many one-run victories lately), it's tough NOT to like them here, or any time when James Paxton is starting, for that matter. Despite being only 3-1 (6-4 TSR), Paxton has certainly been one of baseball's best pitchers in 2018 w/ 1.021 WHIP and two complete game shutouts to his credit, one of them a no-hitter back on 5.8 @ Toronto. He again went the distance his last time out, this time allowing just three hits in a 7-2 win over the Tigers. Tonight, he faces a Twins team that is just 26th in runs scored. Outside the division, AL Central teams are a woeful 54-98 so far (.355 win percentage) and I just can't see Minnesota beating Seattle for a second time w/ Paxton starting. These teams have already met three times before, all in the Twin Cities. Two of those games were played in early April, then a rainout was made up on 5.14. Back in one of the early April games, the Twins beat the M's w/ Paxton on the hill. Paxton went only five innings and allowed two runs in a no-decision. (Twins won 4-2 in a very cold home opener). Paxton has made eight starts since and seven of them have been quality, including each of the last five. Over those five consecutive quality outings, he's allowed just seven runs total in 37 IP. He has a ridiculous 45 strikeouts during that time as well. He's been particularly great at home where his WHIP is 0.975. He won't have to worry about the cold weather this time around and still has a 2.91 ERA in four career starts vs. Minnesota. Facing a pitcher who has a 0.542 (which Paxton does) over his L3 starts is problematic enough for a team. That's what the Twins are dealing w/ here and they're just 2-5 as a road underdog of +125 to +175 on the ML this season (29-46 L3 seasons in that range). They send Fernando Romero to the bump on Friday and while he's unbeaten (2-0) in four starts (2-2 TSR though), he's off his weakest effort to date as he gave up four runs in five innings against Milwaukee on Sunday. The Twins lost that game, 5-4, and while they "recovered" to win their next three, they're off a home loss here to Detroit on Wednesday. Playing after an off-day, the team is only 2-5 this season, so I don't think the rest advantage matters here. Seattle had won five in a row (four by one-run) before losing by one-run yday afternoon in Oakland. Paxton leads them to victory at home tonight. 8* Seattle |
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05-25-18 | White Sox +103 v. Tigers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): As most though it would be, the American League Central is very bad this year. Despite being only a .500 team entering Friday, Cleveland figures to run away w/ the division as I don't believe any of the other four teams figure to finish w/ a wining record at season's end. Collectively, the AL Central has a win percentage of .355 outside the division (54-98 overall) and the last place White Sox have been the biggest "offenders" w/ a 9-23 mark in such games. They were also swept at home by the Tigers very early on in the season and tonight have their shot at avenging that. The theme of this three-pack has been taking teams looking to avenge a prior sweep and I won't deviate from this game plan here! The White Sox have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (15), but have played better of late as they've won five of their last eight, even after a loss yday. That loss resulted in four-game split w/ fellow cellar-dwellars Baltimore, that coming after taking three of four from the AL's other last place team, Texas. It's not much of a step up in class facing the Tigers, who ended an ugly five-game losing streak w/ a win at Minnesota on Wednesday. The last time Detroit scored more than four runs in a game was 5.15 vs. Cleveland. That bodes well for Chicago starter Reynaldo Lopez, who didn't allow any runs in his last start. He went eight innings against the Rangers on 5.20, allowing only two hits. It was the seventh time in nine starts this season that Lopez allowed 2 ER or fewer. So, he's certainly deserving of better than a 3-6 team start record. Sure enough, he has a 2.98 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. Lopez has lost only three decisions and one of them was in that previous series vs. Detroit. But in his start there, he allowed only an unearned run in 7 IP. Note that he was priced at -170 on the ML for that matchup, so it's solid value on him in the revenge spot. Again, he'll be matched up against Michael Fiers, who threw six innings of shutout ball in that first meeting. But Fiers has been quite inconsistent so far this season, including his last time out where he allowed four runs, which is far too many when facing James Paxton. Despite owning the better TSR, Fiers has an ERA that's a full point and a half higher than Lopez and his WHIP is higher as well. While the Tigers are a respectable 14-11 in day games this season, they are only 7-17 at night. Make it 7-18. 8* Chi White Sox |
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05-25-18 | Cardinals +109 v. Pirates | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:05 ET): Taking the woeful Reds out of the equation, the NL Central may be shaping up as baseball's toughest division in 2018. Entering the weekend, the two clubs here find themselves involved in a four-team race where everyone is separated by just 3.5 games. Milwaukee currently has the lead, but I'm not really buying into them as their record is being propped up by a somewhat fortunate 12-5 mark in one-run games. For my money, the Cubs are probably the division's best (confirmed by a +62 run differential?). That brings us to the two teams in question here, St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals enter in off B2B disappointing losses to Kansas City (had yday off) while the Bucs have lost five of six, all of the setbacks coming at the hands of San Diego or Cincinnati at home, no less. The Cards have revenge here for getting swept here at PNC Park back in April and I'm on them in the series opener. Losing twice in a row to Kansas City at home is pretty unforgiveable, if you're St. Louis, or really any other team for that matter. The Cards didn't score much in either game (just three runs total) and lost the series finale in extra innings Wednesday. They're just 4-7 the L11 games, but I look for them to turn it around here as they give John Gant the baseball. Gant is off a strong showing w/ a career-best seven strikeouts (in just 4 1/3 innings). In the rotation only due to an injury to Adam Wainwright, Gant is -sadly - still looking for his 1st win (as a starter) since 2016. He got a no decision his last time out and the offense failed to score for him in his first outing. Tonight though, he faces a Pittsburgh offense that has scored three runs or less in five of the last 10 games and topped five just once during that same span. The Pirates counter w/ Joe Musgrove, who is making his '18 debut. He was considered the prize in the haul acquired for Gerrit Cole in the trade w/ Houston. Truthfully, he wasn't all that great w/ the Astros last season as he finished up in the bullpen (after failing as a starter) and went 7-8 w/ a 4.77 ERA. The Pirates' rotation will be relying on him from here on out, which perhaps "speaks volumes." Musgrove started in four different places in Pittsburgh's minor league system while working his way back. But even though the Redbirds struggled at the plate the L2 games, they'll present Musgrove w/ a greater challenge than he's faced in a while. I like the revenge angle and the visitors here. 8* St. Louis |
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05-23-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -169 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): By all rights, the Dodgers should be dead and buried right now. A myrid of injuries (among other issues) have them currently six games below .500 and they're also down an unspeakable 23.8 units at the betting window. Yet, the rest of the NL West is doing a "good job" of keeping the Dodgers alive. Dave Roberts' ballclub actually owns the best run differential in the division following a win over the Rockies last night. They're +13 for the year, which is an interesting contrast to their opponents, who are in first place (26-23), but -25. The fact that LA is only 4.5 games back of the division lead is pretty incredible and given what those respective run differentials say about the individual teams' records, I'll call for the Dodgers to win again Wednesday! There were signs of life from the Dodgers over the weekend when they went to D.C. and swept the Nationals. But upon returning home Monday, they lost to the Rockies, 2-1. It was the kind of frustrating setback that's all too indicative of the season at Chavez Ravine w/ the Dodgers losing despite giving up only three hits. But credit them for bouncing back yday. I've written about this extensively before, but the Rockies are a franchise that has been largely defined by its home park through their history. This year has seen them "step up" on the road w/ a 19-12 record (most road wins in MLB), but I find it interesting that they've barely outscored opponents in those games. The offense, and this has always been the case throughout the history of the franchise, has generally been lifeless outside of Coors Field, averaging just 3.8 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .217. Dodger pitching has held opponents to a .175 BA over its L7 games and I like starter Kenta Maeda's chances here tonight. He's been inconsistent, but is coming off an absolute gem as he tossed eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball at Miami last week. Maeda has pitched well in the past vs. Colorado, holding them to a .200 BA in seven career starts w/ a 36-5 KW ratio. He's 4-2 w/ a 2.56 ERA. Maeda will be opposed tonight by Kyle Freeland, who has been perfect so far in May w/ a 3-0 record, 1.35 ERA and 0.950 WHIP. But I sense a "slip up" is forthcoming as he's 1-2 w/ a 4.26 ERA in five career starts vs. Los Angeles. Simply put, the Rockies are not as good as their record while the Dodgers are better than theirs. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-23-18 | Orioles -119 v. White Sox | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:10 ET): Even by the American League's generally low standards, these two teams are pretty lousy. Only five A.L. teams are currently above .500, a stark contrast to the N.L., and these two also-rans happen to reside near the bottom w/ the fewest and second fewest number of wins in all of baseball. Chicago has the fewest (14), but avoids the dubious distinction of being a last place team thanks to Kansas City, who has two more losses. Meanwhile, Baltimore is 15-33 including a dreadful 5-20 away from Camden Yards. However, they are favored on the ML here, which should tell you all you "need to know" about the sorry state of the White Sox. Thus far in the series, the teams have exchange 3-2 victories, but I'll call for the Orioles to win big in the rubber match. There have been just four instances all year of the O's winning B2B games. They failed to make it five last night when they gave up three runs in the bottom of the eighth. Shame on the bullpen for wasting a perfectly fine start from Kevin Gausman, who tossed 6 1/3 scoreless innings and matched a career-best w/ 10 K's. Since a 17-run outburst against Tampa Bay back on 5.13, Baltimore has managed just 18 runs total in its last seven games. Six of those have seen them get held to three runs or fewer. But I'll call for them to break out of the slump here tonight against Dylan Covey, the White Sox starter who has never won in the big leagues in 14 tries. He's 0-8 lifetime, w/ a 7.58 ERA, and this is just his second start of 2018. He allowed four runs in six innings in the first, a 5-2 loss to the lowly Royals. As we saw last night, Baltimore desperately misses closer Zach Britton. But it's not like this is an opponent they can't take advantage of. Through the first 16 innings of the series, O's pitching had allowed just two runs total. Alex Cobb gets the nod tonight, coming off his first win of the season in seven tries. He held Boston to only three runs in 6 1/3 innings of work for what was his third quality effort in the last four outings. It's not like the White Sox are a good home team; their seven wins are tied for the fewest in all of MLB and they're getting outscored here by 1.7 rpg. Only KC and Miami have worse overall run differentials. Again, I think it "speaks volumes" that Baltimore is favored on the ML here and I'll take 'em. 10* Baltimore |
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05-22-18 | Padres v. Nationals -180 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals romped their way to victory on Monday, beating down the Padres 10-2 in the opener of this three-game series. I suspect we'll be seeing similar results over the next two days, particularly tonight as the Nats send the red-hot Jeremy Hellickson to the bump. Over his L3 starts, Hellickson has a 0.52 ERA and 0.519 WHIP and the team has gone 3-0. On a staff that includes names such as Scherzer and Strasburg, Hellickson is right there w/ them, battling for the team lead in ERA and WHIP. He'll be opposed tonight by Eric Lauer, whose numbers currently reside on the opposite end of the spectrum. Lauer has an 8.14 ERA and 2.095 WHIP through five starts, ugly numbers that don't figure to subside here facing a lineup that just scored 10 runs yday. Washington had been swept over the weekend, here at home, by the Dodgers. But a visit from a far weaker NL West foe (on paper, at least) figures to bring a much different result. San Diego came to the Nation's Capital riding a three-game win streak, all at the expense of the Pittsburgh Pirates, but this is a team destined for last place in its division. Consider last year's team, which wasn't very good (lost 91 games), should have had even more losses based on its run differential of -212 (was easily MLB's worst LY). That's a run diff of an 105-loss team, for the record. The Padres might be 9-11 on the road this year, but they're not scoring much (3.9 rpg) or hitting well either (.222 team BA). They had just two runs on four hits yesterday. Hellickson has allowed a total of just one run his L3 starts w/ 17 strikeouts and just one walk. While he's pitched more than six innings only once (in six starts) this year, he's yet to allow more than 3 ER. Back on May 8th, he threw 6 2/3 scoreless innings (longest start to date) of two-hit ball against these Padres. He also finished that game w/ a season-high eight strikeouts. As for Lauer, he's allowed a total of 10 runs in his last two outings - more than Hellickson has given up all season. It's only taken seven innings for Lauer to give up that many as well. After allowing 4 HR's in an ugly loss to St. Louis on 5.11, he allowed "only" four runs in 4 2/3 innings his last time out. But he certainly "fell apart" the second time through the order and that's a troubling sign. The Nationals are "due" to start performing far better at home and the insertion of 19-year old rookie Juan Soto into the lineup seems to have provided somewhat of an offensive "spark." 8* Washington |
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05-21-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -173 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -173 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Ask any regular client of mine and they'll tell you that I'm a firm believer in a team's scoring differential being a far better predictor of future results than an actual won-loss record. This goes for any sport. In baseball, as I look at the current NL West standings, I can't help but think the Dodgers are ready to climb while the Rockies are set to fall. Though the latter currently holds a 4.5 game edge over the former, it is Dodger Blue that has actually outscored its opposition over the course of this season (+12 run differential, despite a 20-26 record) while the Rockies have been outscored by 24 runs (despite being 25-22). This series could go a long way in rectifying those disparities. I'm on the Dodgers in Monday's series opener at Chavez Ravine. We've already started to see some "signs of life" from this Dodgers club as over the weekend they swept the Nationals, in D.C., in impressive fashion. They won every game as a ML dog, but are still "well in the hole" for the season at -23.0 units, which right there should tell you how short of expectations they've been thus far. A lot of that has to do w/ injuries. But w/ tonight being the start of a season-long 10-game homestand, it's a "golden opportunity" to turn things around. Rookie Walker Buehler gets the start tonigt and while it's tempting to say "he's only here" because of injuries to Kershaw and Hill, Buehler is proving he belongs w/ a 2.67 ERA in five starts. His last start, which was on the road, was his weakest to date. In each of the first four, he gave up 2 ER or less (just 4 total) in 22 IP. Colorado is a franchise largely defined by its home park and the advantage it provides to hitters, both its own and the opponents. But the last two years have seen this team perform much better on the road than in years past. They are off to an 18-11 start away from Coors Field this season due in large part to their pitching allowing an average of just 3.8 runs per game. But lost in that is their hitters are scoring just 3.9 rpg w/ a collective .221 average. Typical then is that we find tonight's starter German Marquez w/ better numbers on the road than at home. But his WHIP in five road starts is a fairly pedestrian 1.214 and that's facing some pretty bad offenses. The Rockies did lose both games over the weekend (to San Francisco) and the fact they've been outscored by so many runs this season says to me that they are not as strong as their record shows. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-20-18 | Tigers v. Mariners -168 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:10 ET): You've got to give a lot of credit to the Mariners in this series as they easily could have rolled over like dogs in the wake of the Robinson Cano suspension. Instead though, they've roared like lions and are now in a position to take three of four from the visiting Tigers. After the teams exchanged one-run victories in the first two games of this series, Seattle won easily last night, 7-2, behind another strong effort from starter James Paxton, who threw a three-hit complete game. Detroit has now lost 9 of its last 10 games at Safeco Field and tonight must deal with another hot Seattle starter, that being Wade LeBlanc. Look for the M's to make it three in a row here. LeBlanc has a 0.60 ERA and 0.733 WHIP after three starts and has been outstanding in all of them. He's allowed just one run in 15 innings of work (on a solo homer) and has a 10-1 KW ratio. He's allowed just 10 hits. Last time out, he tossed six scoreless innings against Minnesota in his longest - and strongest - effort to date. Whether or not he can maintain this over a full season - he's 33 and been designated for assignment seven times in his career - remains to be seen. But I'm confident that he should keep rolling against these Tigers, who I'll remind you are just 79-106 on the road the L3 seasons. Detroit has also scored just nine runs total in this series. The Tigers counter here w/ Francisco Liriano, who is off his roughest outing of the season to date. He allowed five runs - and gave up two home runs - in just 4 2/3 IP against Cleveland. Fortunately for him though, he was bailed out late and the team won 9-8. Liriano had certainly pitched well before that, but he also hasn't made it past the fifth inning in B2B starts. I just don't like his - nor his team's chances Sunday against a Seattle team that is a "sneaky good" 26-19 this year, just 2.5 games back of the division leading Astros! 8* Seattle |
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05-19-18 | Rays v. Angels -179 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -179 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (9:05 ET): Well, the Halos haven't treated me well the last two days, but I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm." Certainly, their woeful 11-16 mark at home has to improve, right? They've dropped four in a row here in Anaheim, the first two to Houston and the last two to Tampa Bay. Last night's 8-3 setback dropped LA to third in the AL West, one half game below Seattle (who just lost Robinson Cano). But here is the spot where they get back on track as they'll get a chance to face spot starter Sergio Romo (1st career big league start), who is a career reliever. The Rays have won five straight, but three of those were against the Royals. I can't see this stretch of winning on the road continuing for them. The last time the Angels won, Andrew Heaney was on the mound. He'll get the call again tonight, hoping for a repeat of that last performance when he held Houston to one run on four hits over eight innings. He also finished w/ 10 K's. He's gone four straight starts w/o allowing a HR and has allowed just six runs (five earned) over that same stretch, which has lasted 25 IP. A big key for the Rays in this series (so far) has been the long ball. They came to Anaheim having hit only 37 home runs in 41 games, which was 13th in the American League. They have hit six over the L2 games. Expect regression in this department. Mike Trout stepped up to the plate in the eighth inning last night on a career worst 0 for 21 slump. He hit a home run in that final at-bat, and you have to think it's just a matter of time before he starts performing at his usual MVP level. Though Romo is starting here only b/c of the Angels' right-handed heavy lineup, he's someone I can see Trout taking full advantage of facing. This current four-game slide is tied for the longest of the entire Angels' season. I said it before and I'll say it again. Why they are 3-9 vs. the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros (three top teams in the AL), they entered this series 22-9 against everyone else. 8* LA Angels |
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05-18-18 | Rays v. Angels -138 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -138 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): Well, the Angels failed to come through for me last night, instead getting blasted by the Rays, 7-1. The loss dropped them to 11-15 at home for the year, which is not something I thought I'd see. Don't blame starter Tyler Skaggs though; he held Tampa Bay to just one run on six hits over six innings while striking out seven. Though the Angels finished the game w/ just one run on three hits themselves, the real damage came once Skaggs was lifted as the Rays scored a total of six runs over the next two innings. I believe we'll see the home team bounce back tonight though as the pitching matchup is in their favor and Mike Trout is "due" to breakout. Trout is currently on the longest hitless streak of his career, at 19 at-bats. He has seven walks during that time, but it's not as if the rest of the lineup is contributing as the Angels have scored a grand total of six runs in the last four games. But we should start to see that all change tonight going up against Tampa's Blake Snell, who allowed three home runs in what was a disastrous last start that ended up being a 17-1 loss to Baltimore. Snell wound up lasting only 3 1/3 IP and gave up five runs total. It was pretty easily his worst start of the season to date. The Rays haven't lost since, but remember that three of the four wins during the current streak came against the hideous Royals. Meanwhile, the Angels are coming off a series w/ the rival Astros, so this - theoretically - should be a drop in class where the offense gets going. Nine of the team's 19 losses this year have come to either the Astros, Yankees or Red Sox, easily the three best teams in the American League. Getting the starting nod tonight will be Nick Tropeano, who has a 1.019 WHIP his L3 starts despite being winless during that stretch. In his last three starts against teams not named "Houston" or "Boston," Tropeano has allowed only a total of three runs in 19 innings. This is just the third time so far this season that the Angels have lost three more games in a row. They should bounce back. 8* LA Angels |
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05-18-18 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -159 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:05 ET): Here's two teams that both got off to tremendous starts to the season, but only one (Arizona) remains in first place of its division and they happen to have dropped seven of their last eight, never topping more than four runs in any one game. The Mets started 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have gone just 9-19 ever since, including an ugly 12-1 loss here at home to Toronto on Wednesday. (Both teams had Thursday off). The Mets are now only fourth in their own division (NL East), which is shaping up to be a lot tougher than Arizona's division (the NL West). But w/ Jacob deGrom starting tonight, I'm siding w/ New York in this one. Though deGrom pitched on Sunday, he should be very well rested here. That's because he is off the shortest outing of his career, one that lasted just one inning. Callahan pulled him due to throwing 45 pitches, the most deGrom has ever thrown in one inning in his career, which may have been short-sighted in retrospect. It's not as if deGrom was "roughed up" (though he did issue three walks) as he didn't allow any runs, extending a personal scoreless streak to 19 1/3 innings, which spans four starts. The last time deGrom allowed a run was 4.16 vs. Washington. He's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his eight starts and never more than four (more than three just one time). Tonight he goes against a struggling Arizona offense that has scored two runs or fewer in six of its past eight games. Furthermore, the D'backs have topped four runs only one time in May (15 games played). It's not as if the Mets are hitting the cover off the baseball either (though they did scored 12 runs in a win over Toronto on Tuesday). But the big difference here is that while the D'backs must deal w/ deGrom, the Mets only must deal w/ Zack Godley, who has a 5.40 ERA and 1.754 WHIP on the road this season (4 starts). Godley has allowed 4 ER in B2B starts as well as three of his last four. He allowed three home runs his last time out. As a team, Arizona comes into this game batting only a collective .220 and they are now w/o CF A.J. Pollock, who will be out four to eight weeks w/ a broken left thumb. Look for the Mets to win tonight's series opener. 8* NY Mets |
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05-17-18 | Tigers v. Mariners -162 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -162 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
10* Seattle (10:10 ET): It's certainly been a trying week for the Mariners. It began w/ them thinking they might be w/o Robinson Cano for an extended period of time when the star second baseman fractured his hand on Sunday. But things then went from "bad to worse" as MLB stepped in and ensured Cano would be missing significant time. They announced Tuesday that he would be suspended 80 games for a positive drug test. This is a severe blow as Cano was the ONLY player in baseball to play in at least 150 games each of the last 11 seasons. His 1,783 games played since '07 were by far the most of any player during that time. If losing Cano wasn't enough, Nelson Cruz has also gone down after being hit by a pitch Tuesday. But through it all, the M's are still persevering. They did lose yday, 5-1 to the Rangers, but are still 24-18 for the year and just 2.5 games behind the Astros, if you can believe that. Though I don't like their chances of staying in the pennant hunt long-term, I do really like them tonight as they welcome in the Detroit Tigers for a four-game weekend set. These teams just met last week in the Motor City w/ the Tigers taking two of three. One of those games saw Detroit's Matt Boyd outduel Seattle's Marco Gonzales in a battle of southpaws. Considering Gonzales and the M's were -145 on the ML in that game, they would appear to be a real "bargain" here in the rematch. This is actually one of my favorite "handicapping spots" in MLB where you have two pitchers facing off in B2B starts and you take the one who lost the first encounter. Gonzales has gone exactly six innings in four consecutive starts for the Tigers. The team won the first three before they simply couldn't support him enough against Boyd and the Tigers last Saturday. Giving up 10 hits certainly didn't help Gonzales's cause as that was a season-high. He's now allowed 4 ER in B2B starts, but ended April by allowing just five runs total in three starts, three of those unearned. Boyd, who grew up in Seattle (so this is a homecoming for him), has delivered five quality outings in seven tries this season. But he's still winless on the road and the team is only 7-13 in road games this year (not to mention 78-104 the L3 seasons). The Tigers had won four in a row, including two over Cleveland, before getting shutout yday. But all those games came at home. Gonzales and the Mariners get revenge tonight! 10* Seattle |
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05-17-18 | Rays v. Angels -152 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -152 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): The Angels are coming off a tough series w/ the division rival Astros (dropped two of three) where they simply could not put up enough runs (just five in three games) against the top pitching staff in all of MLB. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay just went to Kansas City and swept the lowly Royals w/ relative ease. I look for a "reversal of fortune" here though as the Halos have to start performing better at home moving forward (just 11-14 so far) and the Rays aren't a club to be feared. Note that half (9) of Los Angeles' losses this season have been to either the Yankees, Red Sox or Astros (i.e. the top three teams in baseball). Against everyone else, they are an impressive 22-9 overall. I like them to win big in Thursday's series opener. Angels' starter Tyler Skaggs certainly deserves better than an 0-3 team start record his L3 starts. He did allow 2 HR's his last time out, but still sports a 3.24 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over that three start stretch. He allowed just 2 ER in each of them (16 2/3 IP total) and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in all but one of his seven starts this season (the exception coming against Boston). While the Angels have performed below par at home overall so far this season, they are 8-4 as ML favorites of -125 to -175, the range they find themselves in tonight. That speaks to the level of competition they've faced so far. The Rays are clearly not in the same class as the Red Sox or Yankees. Over the L3 seasons, LA is 42-24 in the aforementioned proce range. What Skaggs needs here is some run support and that he should get this evening as TB is allowing 5.5 rpg on the road this season. The Rays are even still allowing 6.6 rpg over the last seven contests even after sweeping the sorry Royals. That's largely owed to one disastrous game at Baltimore last weekend (17-1 loss), but still, this pitching staff will be a major drop in class for the Angels after facing Houston's trio of McCullers, Cole and Verlander. It will be a former All-Star they go up against here in Chris Archer, but he's a former All-Star in "name only" as he's no longer performing anywhere near that level. In nine starts this year, Archer has a 5.64 ERA and 1.405 WHIP and he just got hammered to the tune of six runs (allowed 3 HR's) his last time out, in Baltimore. That's the same number of runs Skaggs has allowed in his last four starts combined, which have spanned 23 2/3 innings. Really like the home team to get back on track in this one. 8* LA Angels |
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05-13-18 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks -123 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -123 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:05 ET): The D'backs have led the NL West wire to wire so far, but this series has NOT gone their way as they've managed all of three runs and lost all three games. They'll get a chance to avoid the sweep by beating the surging Nationals on ESPN Sunday night. The Nats have won 12 of 14, but have still been money losers at the betting window overall. Meanwhile, Arizona continues to be the most profitable team to bet on in the entire sport. That dichotomy speaks to the respective starts of the two ballclubs here and I simply don't think anyone would have anticipated a sweep, by Washington no less, as a likely result coming into this series. You just don't see home teams get swept in four game series very often, especially good ones like the D'backs. The good news for Arizona here is that they won't be facing Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg. Those two held the D'backs' bats in check to the tune of two runs and nine hits in over 13 IP. They also fanned 20. Now, on the mound tonight for Washington will be Jeremy Hellickson, who has a 0.827 WHIP in five starts himself. He's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start and hasn't given up ANY in his last two, a stretch of 12 1/3 IP. However, Hellickson has not found much success in his career against Arizona. He's winless in five career tries against them and that includes a no-decision last month where he allowed two solo home runs and the team ended up losing 4-3 in 11 innings. I'm just not sure I'm ready to fully buy into Hellickson just yet. Arizona is one of two teams that allow fewer runs per game than Washington. At home, they are allowing just over 3.0 rpg w/ opponents batting just over .200! Starting tonight will be Zach Godley, who has a 1.96 ERA and 1.091 WHIP at Chase Field. In four of seven starts this year, Godley has given up 2 ER or fewer, all three exceptions. He did win at Washington last month, opposite Stephen Strasburg, as a +150 ML dog. Note that this is the first series all season that the D'backs have lost and the current four-game skid is their longest of the season. They'll get the win tonight. 10* Arizona |
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05-13-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -146 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -146 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (4:05 ET): The Dodgers likely qualify as the biggest early season disappointment in all of MLB (currently 16-23 and over -23.0 units), but the indignity of being swept at home by the Reds would probably qualify as a new nadir. They have a chance to avoid that fate, mind you, but must win Sunday here at Chavez Ravine. Now, there are signs of being unlucky (not just injuries) rather than simply "bad" for Dodger Blue. The team has actually outscored its opponents this year (by all of one run) despite being seven games below .500. They've lost six of seven overall, not just the three in a row here, but I'll call for them to avoid the sweep as I simply can't see that result taking place. Cincinnati, who is still a league-worst 13-27 overall, has won five in a row. That right there should tell you what an awful start to the season it has been. They were the first team to make a change at manager (Bryan Price fired very quickly), but Jim Riggleman has hardly made a difference. The Reds have still allowed the second most runs in the National League (only Miami has allowed more) even after holding the Dodgers to just six total in the three games here. The newly acquired Matt Harvey (yes, him) gave his team four innings of one-hit ball last night in the latest surprise victory. Today, it's Luis Castillo on the mound. He begat the current win streak w/ a pretty solid effort last Tuesday against the Mets. He retired the first 14 batters he saw, but then seemed to hit "a wall," leaving after 5 2/3 innings and allowing two runs. Consider that even after that effort, Castillo still has a 6.47 ERA and 1.537 WHIP in eight starts this season. Rich Hill will get the nod for the Dodgers and he needs to be better than he has been lately. But, perhaps facing someone other than Arizona is all the help Hill needs. Hill has faced the D'backs in each of his last two starts and been rocked both times. He spent considerable time on the DL between those two starts, so it could also have been a case where he was rusty his last time out. In his first two starts of the season (both against the Giants), Hill allowed just three runs in a total of 10 IP. He is 4-2 w/ a 3.80 ERA lifetime vs. the Reds. Perhaps the simple fact that this is a day game will help the Dodgers. Cincy is just 3-12 in such affairs this season. 8* LA Dodgers |
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05-12-18 | A's v. Yankees -179 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
6* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): Oakland came in and surprising the Yanks on Friday, taking the series opener, 10-5 as big ML underdogs. I do not see the same thing occurring today. This is the first time since April 8th-10th that the Yankees have dropped B2B games. Previously, they'd won eight straight and 20 of the last 23 games. The A's have never found much success here in the Bronx as yday marked their first double-digit run effort here since 2007. Perhaps it was somewhat ironic that it was former teammate Sonny Gray who they roughed up on Friday for four home runs. Oakland is now .500 for the season, but has been outscored by 11 runs. The Yankees are tied w/ rival Boston for the best record in baseball and have a +60 run differential. Oakland had not been scoring prior to yday's big win. In fact, they'd been held to three runs or fewer in eight of nine games, including two or fewer in five straight. They'd totaled only five runs in the previous series, which saw them get swept at home by Houston. They scored more runs yday then they had the previous five games combined! I believe the quick turnaround favors the home team (early start today), specifically starter Domingo German, who looked fantastic in his big league debut last week. While he received a no-decision, German did blank Cleveland for six innings, allowing no hits and striking out nine! He retired 18 of the first 20 hitters he saw (two walks) and was the 1st pitcher since 1893 (!) to throw six hitless innings while striking out at least nine! The A's have actually beaten the Yankees five straight times dating back to last season. But four of those wins were in Oakland. Unlike the A's, the Bronx Bombers have had little issue swinging the bat this season as they came into the series averaging an impressive 6.5 rpg at home. Save for Aaron Judge, some of the bats are starting to slow down, but I suspect that changes today. Oakland starter Andrew Triggs is off his best start of '18, but it also came against the lowly Orioles. Triggs has also alternated bad and good starts over his last four outings. The Yankees are 10-3 in day games this season, outscoring opponents by nearly three full runs per game. One would have to go all the way back to last August to find the last time this team lost three in a row. They win big Saturday! 6* NY Yankees |
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05-10-18 | Cardinals -143 v. Padres | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (10:15 ET): The Padres got one over on me last night as they beat the Nats 2-1, thus avoiding a sweep. However, my read on the club overall has not changed. This was a team that was outscored by 212 runs a season ago, easily the worst margin in all of MLB. Thus a case could be made that they were actually FORTUNATE to even win 71 games. I think they're a lock for last place in the NL West this season and the basement is where they currently reside w/ a 14-24 mark. Only fellow last place teams in the Senior Circuit, Miami and Cincinnati, have worse records and run differentials. St. Louis had Wednesday off, which was well needed. They'd just been swept, at home, in a short two-game set by the Twins. Yet, the Redbirds remain in first place in the NL Central w/ a 20-14 mark. Dropping both games to Minnesota was as surprising as it was disappointing, especially considering how they were dominated (outscored 13-1 and managed only six hits). But I really like their chances to bounce back, not only tonight, but in this entire series, against a far lesser opponent. It starts w/ Miles Mikolas being on the hill. He's unbeaten in six starts this year for the Cardinals (4-0) w/ a 2.70 ERA and a 0.975 WHIP. Last time out, he threw seven shutout innings agianst the Cubs. He's allowed just four runs total in his last four starts, which have spanned 28 innings total (gone seven innings each time). San Diego is a weak-hitting team (.226 BA), so I see Mikolas having little difficulty here. Also, it should be pointed out that going into yday's game, the Padres were being outscored by 1.7 rpg here at home! They send Jordan Lyles to the mound for the first time in 2018 tonight. Lyles, who has made 13 relief appearances this season, is only starting due to the ineffectiveness of Bryan Mitchell. Lyles has started before, but w/ little success. He's 0-3 all-time pitching at Petco Park (16 appearances) w/ a 4.91 ERA. He's also allowed eight runs and issued seven walks in 19 total IP this season. 8* St. Louis |
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05-10-18 | Giants v. Phillies -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): The Phillies have absolutely dominated this series, outscoring the Giants 26-5, and go for the sweep Thursday afternoon w/ Vincent Velasquez on the hill. They rolled to victory last night, 11-3, behind seven scoreless innings from starter Nick Pivetta. Carlos Santana supplied the offense w/ three hits and five RBIs as the Phils improved to 14-5 at Citizens Bank Park. What's really remarkable is that they are outscoring teams by well over two full runs per game here. Given how this series has gone so far, I'm calling for the Phillies to finish off the sweep. From the Giants perspective, this has obviously been a terribly disappointing series. Not only the way they have been dominated, but also because they came in fresh off sweeping the previously red-hot Braves in Atlanta. They've scored just five runs total in the series and that's actually pretty par for the course for visiting teams in this ballpark. Phillies' pitching is holding opponents to a .216 batting average at home so far this season. That makes today a tall order for San Fran starter Ty Blach. While Blach has allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his last six starts, his strikeout numbers are unimpressive and his WHIP is still 1.378 for the season. The Giants' offense is barely averaging 3.0 rpg for the season on the road. Velasquez will try and keep the string of strong starting Phillies pitching efforts intact. So far this season, Velasquez has been rather feast or famine as he's allowed 1 ER three times, but 4+ ER three times as well. He's coming off one of his stronger efforts to date as he held Washington to just one hit over 5 IP (that one hit was a solo HR). Given how Philly has performed at home so far, the offense should be able to pick Velasquez up even if he's not that effective here today. The Phillies are averaging 5.5 rpg at home for the season. The team is 7-2 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 and I'll call for them to win again in that price range. 10* Philadelphia |
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05-09-18 | Nationals -123 v. Padres | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -123 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
10* Washington (9:10 ET): Irregardless of what transpires between these teams on Tuesday night, I'm backing the Nationals at this price in Wednesday's finale. I had them in Monday's opener as well and a power-surge (no pun intended!) led them to an 8-5 victory at Petco Park. The Nats homered three times in the game, accounting for five runs, and that was more than enough for starter Stephen Strasburg, who allowed just three runs in seven workman-like innings. Though you look at where the Nats currently are in the NL East standings (4th) and can't help but be disappointed, note that the team heads into Tuesday having outscored its opposition by 26 runs so far. San Diego, who I have little regard for, is sitting in last place in the NL West w/ a run differential of -41. Gio Gonzalez will make his eighth start of the season here for the Nationals and he's yet to permit more than three runs in any of them. Granted, he hasn't always gone deep into games, but last time out saw him toss five scoreless innings of two-hit ball and that was more than enough as the team prevailed 7-3 over Philadelphia. Gonzalez has also allowed only one home run all season. I think he should find pitching in Petco Park to be quite friendly (as most starters do). Note the reason for that last start being cut short was that there was a 39-minute rain delay. He'd already thrown 89 pitches by that point, but 55 were for strikes. Gonzalez is top 10 in the National League in ERA (2.33) and should not have much trouble w/ a team batting only .229 on the season. San Diego will counter here southpaw Joey Lucchesi. It's a tall order facing Bryce Harper and a Washington lineup that is averaging over five runs per game against left-handed starters. The Nats also average 5.6 rpg on the road, Tuesday pending. Lucchesi has actually pitched pretty well, but never beyond six innings. Last time out, his offense failed to score for him in a 4-0 loss to the Dodgers. While he only allowed three runs in 5 IP, note he did give up two home runs. He's now allowed a HR in three consecutive starts. Note that the Padres are being outscored by 1.6 rpg at home heading into Tuesday. Look for Washington to win this series (possible sweep depending on what happens Tuesday). 10* Washington |
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05-08-18 | Pirates -131 v. White Sox | Top | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:10 ET): The Bucs will wrap up a nine-game road trip w/ what will be a short two-game visit to the Southside of Chicago. Thus far, the trip has not gone well. They're just 2-5, though they did win on Sunday, 9-0 over Milwaukee. Still 19-16 on the season however, I give them a substantial edge in this Interleague series ove the White Sox, who are really in a bad way right now. Most, myself included, figured the White Sox would be one of the worst teams in the American League this year. They haven't "disappointed," starting 9-23 and they've lost seven of their last eight. I'm going with the NL contigent here. Pirates' pitching has not been too bad so far, but don't tell that to Ivan Nova, who really struggled his last time out. He gave up eight runs - three unearned - on 11 hits in a 9-3 loss at Washington. He lasted only 4 2/3 innings. But prior to that, he'd been pitching well, most notably against another AL opponent. On 4.26, he tossed eight shutout innings vs. Detroit and that was on the heels of allowing just one run and five hits in 6 IP at Philadelphia. I expect him to bounce back from last week's rough outing as he's 4-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA in seven career starts vs. the White Sox. Though the Bucs aren't expected to be contenders this year, they do have two players - catcher Francisco Cervelli and CF Corey Dickerson (replaced Andrew McCutchen) - that lead their respective positions in WAR. The team has also gone 6-2 in Interleague play thus far. Chicago is 0-2 vs. the NL and quite frankly its difficult to find any situation the team thrives in, other than playing Kansas City. While they are 5-2 vs. the Royals in 2018, they are just 4-21 vs. everyone else! They're also 3-13 at home. Interleague play has not been kind to this club the last several seasons as they're just 15-27. Having Lucas Giolito on the bump tonight hardly inspires any confidence as he has a 7.03 ERA and 1.562 WHIP in six starts and things appear to be going from bad to worse for him. Giolito allowed multiple home runs his last time out and his last home start was a disaster as he allowed nine runs to the Astros in just two innings. Incredibly, the White Sox are being outscored by 2.3 rpg at home for the season, which is as bad as it gets. The Pirates come in averaging 4.8 rpg and get the benefit of the DH added to their lineup. 10* Pittsburgh |
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05-08-18 | Tigers v. Rangers -157 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -157 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:05 ET): Statistically speaking, the Rangers are coming off two of the "odder" seasons in recent memory. Two years ago they managed to win the AL West w/ 95 wins. But they only outscored opponents by a paltry eight runs over the course of entire season! That was owed to a historically fortunate 36-14 record in one-run games. Last year, they dropped down to 78 wins, but their run differential was only -17. The key difference? They were a MLB-worst 13-24 in one-run games. I bring this up because last night saw the Rangers come back and win by exactly one-run, beating Detroit 7-6. That record in one-run games is destined to even out in year three. How they perform in other games is still up for debate, but I like them tonight in Arlington. Texas made the most of its seven hits last night, scoring seven times. A four-run sixth saw them collect four hits w/ two outs to tie the game at five apiece. Detroit quickly regained the advantage w/ an unearned run scored in the top half of the seventh, but then a Jurickson Profar triple wound up being the difference in the home half. That's just a brutal loss for the Tigers, who scored more than three runs for just the second time in nine games and still came up short. They've now dropped four of five on the current road trip, which started w/ them losing three of four to another last place team, Kansas City, over the weekend. Outside the Motor City, the team is being outscored by more than a full run per game. Only a handful of teams (four to be exact) have a worse run differential on the road this season. Texas will send Mike Minor to the mound on Tuesday. He's been pretty solid in six starts this season, especially considering the competition. Five of his six starts have been against Boston, Toronto and Houston. Last time out, he delivered a quality start vs. the Red Sox, holding them to just three runs in six innings of work. The Rangers won that game, as +135 ML dogs, 11-5. Here at home, Minor has been pretty good as his ERA in four starts in 2.86. I certainly prefer him over counterpart Michael Fiers, who has not only allowed 4 HR's his last two starts, but has a 5.87 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his last three. Even more daunting is Fiers' career marks vs. the Rangers. He's 0-3 in five starts w/ an 8.90 ERA. Injuries and a flu bug are also affecting the Tigers' everyday lineup right now. Texas is due to start performing better at home and makes it two straight tonight. 8* Texas |
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05-07-18 | Nationals -157 v. Padres | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
8* Washington (10:15 ET): The Nationals rallied to beat the Phillies yday, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth to win 5-4. Kind of ironic that the final margin was one run as I had pointed out in my analysis for the game (had the Nats) that they had been quite unfortunate to go 2-8 in one-run games this season while (also 0-3 in extra innings) while Philadelphia had enjoyed a 6-2 mark in one-run games (4-1 in extra innings). Funny how those things work themselves out, no? Now the Nats head West to take on the lowly Padres, who did just win B2B games against the Dodgers over the weekend. But Washington has won eight of nine and allowed four runs or fewer in 15 of their last 16 games. This sure seems like a great price on Stephen Strasburg to me. Washington got a strong effort off the mound from Max Scherzer yday afternoon as he fanned 15 batters in just 6 1/3 innings. All four runs the Nats allowed came after Scherzer exited. The bullpen remains an issue, but like Scherzer, I anticipate a strong start tonight from Strasburg. He has 28 K's his last three starts, which have spanned 20 1/3 IP. His team start record is only 3-4, but he still sports a 1.05 WHIP, which is top 10 among all NL starters. He's also second in IP and third in strikeouts. A native of San Diego, Strasburg has had little issue beating his former hometown team in the past. He's gone 6-2 lifetime vs. the Padres w/ a 2.94 ERA. Here at Petco Park, which is known to be friendly to pitchers, he has allowed just 6 ER in 19 IP (three starts). The Padres have hit just .176 against him in those games. Overall, they have faced Strasburg a total of 49 innings and struck out 66 times. Before winning both Saturday and Sunday, the Padres had been no-hit on Friday. They've won three straight only one time before this season. Sunday marked their 1st shutout of 2018 and they're only 7-13 L3 seasons off a shutout win. Here at home, they are still giving up 5.6 runs per game. Remember, the Dodgers series took place in Mexico City. It will be interesting to see how the team reacts to being stateside w/ no days off. Tyson Ross gets the baseball here and while he's generally been pretty sharp of late (especially when throwing his slider), I'm not sure I'd trust him to go "toe for toe" w/ Strasburg. San Diego is still a team that's been outscored by 38 runs this year while Washington has a run differential of +23 (despite being just a game over .500). I like the Nats big in this one. 8* Washington |
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05-06-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -189 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
6* Washington (1:35 ET): The Nationals had their six-game win streak snapped yday (lost 3-1 here to the Phillies), but you have to believe they'll get "right back on the horse" due to Max Scherzer being on the mound Sunday. One streak that did NOT end Saturday was the Nats allowing four runs or less. That's happened eight games in a row now as well as 14 of the last 15. The one exception, they gave up five runs. It's pretty hard to lose when you're giving up so few runs, but shockingly the Nats are only 8-7 during this stretch. Runs should again be at a premium Sunday w/ Scherzer being opposed by Jake Arrieta in a battle of former Cy Young award winners. But I believe it's the home team that comes out on top of this NL East rubber match. Looking at the division as its currently stands now, four of the five NL East teams could be a factor in the pennant chase. (Miami being the obvious exception). The Nats are still only .500 even after winning six in a row, but they've fallen prey to some "bad luck" so far, namely a 2-8 record in one-run games and they're 0-3 in extra innings. Contrast that w/ the Phillies, who are 6-2 in one-run games and 4-1 in extra innings. Thus, the Nats actually have the better YTD run differential despite being two games worse. However, the Nats have had no problem winning when Scherzer takes the mound (6-1 TSR), doing so each of his L5 outings. In three home starts, Scherzer has a ridiculous 0.403 WHIP. He's also posted four double digit strikeout games thus far and has allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of the six starts overall. Bottom line is he'll hold up his "end of the bargain" here against a Phillies lineup averaging just 2.7 rpg its last seven contests. Arrieta had likewise been "rolling along" for Philly, that was until his last start when he was tagged for six runs in Miami of all places. He lasted just 3 2/3 innings. That snapped a string of three straight quality outings from the former Cub. He'll be facing a Nationals lineup that seemed to have turned a corner going into yday. The turnaround can be attributed to Bryce Harper now batting leadoff as he'd homered four times in four games before going 0 for 4 on Saturday. But this one boils down to the fact I simply like Scherzer more than Arrieta and why wouldn't I considering he's a) at home and b) dominated the Phillies in his career. April's NL Pitcher of the Month owns a 9-1 career mark versus this opponent, posting a 2.58 ERA and 108-19 KW rate in 14 starts (94 1/3 IP). Four Phillies hitters - Herrera, Hernandez, Franco and Santana - are a combined 23 for 129 against him. Meanwhile, Arrieta has a 5.49 career ERA vs. the Nationals in nine starts. 6* Washington |
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05-06-18 | Rockies v. Mets -175 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -175 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (1:10 ET): If there was ever a time that the Mets needed their "stopper," it would be right now, as they've dropped five in a row (all here at Citi Field) and trying to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Colorado Rockies here. They send Noah Syndergaard to the bump on Sunday and he has a 5-2 team start record w/ a 3.10 ERA and 1.131 WHIP. Those aren't the most overwhelming numbers in the sport, but it's Syndergaard, who continues to deliver quality starts w/ a strong strikeout rate. Meanwhile, I'm still not buying Colorado or more specifically its starting pitching. Even after four straight wins to get to 19-15, the Rockies have still been outscored by 11 runs this year, a worse margin than the slumping Mets. As a team, they are batting just .213 on the road. That 11-1 start from the Mets is now a distant memory as the team has dropped 13 of 19, including the five straight, and here they look to avoid their first 0-6 homestand in six seasons. What has gone wrong? Well, for starters, the team simply isn't scoring. During the five game losing streak, they've been shutout three times (yday included) and scored a total of just nine runs. Seven of those nine came in a failed rally attempt Friday when, down 8-2, they put five runs on the board in the final two frames. They had no answers for Colorado's Chad Bettis on Saturday as he pitched seven scoreless innings of six-hit ball. A Rockies team never known for its pitching has now seen its starters produce a sparkling 1.61 ERA the L10 games, which includes six straight six-plus inning efforts. Yet, the staff ERA is still north of 4.00 (4.27), which ranks 12th in the NL. Yes, that has a lot to do w/ Coors Field, but I also don't think what we're seeing of late is sustainable. The road is obviously where Rockies pitching has been at its best lately as they haven't even played a home game since 4.25. But that hasn't translated to today's starter Kyle Freeland, who is still winless in four road starts w/ a 5.57 ERA and 1.381 WHIP. I mentioned earlier that it's not just the Rockies pitching that gets severely affected by leaving the confines of Coors Field; it's the team's hitting as well. They are averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road and have scored three times or fewer six times on this nine-game road trip (which ends today). So I fully anticipate Syndergaard holding up "his end of the bargain" here and provided the Mets can finally put some runs on the board, they'll snap this ugly losing skid. 6* NY Mets |
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05-05-18 | Giants v. Braves -148 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:10 ET): It was a rude return home for the Braves Friday night as they lost to the Giants by a score of 9-4. Both teams came into this series playing their best baseball of the season w/ the Braves winning five straight and the Giants 8 of 11. I was surprised to see Atlanta fall given the way they so thoroughly dominated the Mets in the previous series, outscoring them 21 to 2 w/ a 41-15 edge in hits. In fact, the Braves had outscored the opposition 35-4 over the course of their five-game win streak. They gave up more than twice that number of runs last night, but I view that as a "temporary speedbump" and will look for them to bounce back tonight behind the undefeated Brandon McCarthy, who is 4-0 in his six starts w/ a 3.09 ERA. Go with the NL East leaders. I'm buying these Braves as legit. Whether or not they can sustain the current lead in the division remains to be seen, but right now they have the top run differential in the entire National League. Only three heavyweights from the American League - Houston, Boston and the Yankees - have outscored their opponents by a greater margin this season. The Braves have scored - by far - the most runs of any NL team and w/ the call up of Ronald Acuna, may have the best top of the order of any lineup in baseball. The team had gone 7-1 w/ Acuna in the lineup prior to losing last night. But he was 0 for 4 in the series opener. Another new face in the Braves' lineup is Jose Bautista. I suspect the offense is going to perform a lot better here than it did Friday night. The Braves are averaging 6.4 runs per game at home so far. McCarthy will hopefully give the home team a better start than Mike Foltynewicz did last night. As mentioned earlier, McCarthy has yet to drop a decision in 2018 (5-1 TSR) and he's given up 3 ER or less in all but one start. In three of his previous four trips to the mound, he's allowed exactly one run. I don't fear a Giants lineup that came into yday batting just .222 on the road and averaging 2.5 rpg. Their starter, Ty Blach, has improved since a disastrous first outing of the year. But, he often has been the victim of poor run support. After scoring nine runs in B2B games, I expect the Giants' offense to "cool off" substantially on Saturday night as I'll note the team has only one three-game win streak to its credit so far this season. 8* Atlanta |
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05-04-18 | Astros -192 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:40 ET): The lone Interleague matchup on the weekend slate pits the defending World Series Champion Astros against the team w/ the best record currently in the National League, Arizona. The D'backs play host (where they have gone 11-5), but as you tell from the money line, the oddsmakers don't like their chances in tonight's series opener. No do I. That has a lot to do w/ who is pitching for Houston, that being Gerrit Cole. Pirates fans have to be wondering where "this Cole" was during his tenure there as he's off to a fantastic start to his Astros' career. Through six starts, Cole has a 1.73 ERA and 0.792 ERA. That's what makes Houston such a prohibitive favorite tonight and note they are already 7-1 this season as a road fave of -175 or higher. Now, it's not all "wine and roses" right now for the 'Stros as they just dropped three of four to the Yankees (at home) in a rematch of LY's ALCS. They got shutout twice and scored only seven runs in this series, five of those coming yday in a game they blew in the top of the ninth (gave up three runs and lost by one run). But this offense has actually been more prolific on the road (5.8 runs per game) and should thrive this weekend in hitter-friendly Chase Field despite the loss of the designated hitter. Tonight, they'll be facing Kris Medlen, who is making his first start of 2018. He is starting here in place of the injured Robbie Ray. The fact that Arizona has been able to keep it together despite so many injuries is impressive, but I'm not sure it is sustainable. This is a pretty brutal spot for them, coming off a series w/ the "rival" Dodgers (lost last two games). It is the first time in MLB history that a team has had to host BOTH World Series representatives from the previous year in consecutive series. I expect Houston's offense to get going here and Cole should take care of the rest. The Astros have allowed the fewest number of runs in baseball, including only 2.3 per game on the road. Cole has been a big part of that as all six of his starts thus far have been quality ones and he has a 61-8 KW ratio in 41 2/3 IP. He is seventh in the NL in ERA as well as sixth in WHIP. He's familiar w/ Arizona and pitching in this park from his time spent in the Senior Circuit. Not sure how Medlen, who hasn't started a big league game since 2016 (Tommy John surgery) can match him. He was 0-3 w/ a 6.00 ERA in three starts at Triple A Reno this Spring. 8* Houston |
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05-04-18 | Twins -167 v. White Sox | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:10 ET): It has been a pretty dreadful stretch for the Twins, who have dropped 12 of the last 14 games. Last night was one of the more painful losses of the bunch as they fell in walk-off fashion, 6-5, after blowing an early 5-1 lead. It was Trayce Thompson winning the game w/ a HR in the ninth (w/ two outs) for the White Sox, but as we know this is a flawed team as well. With Jose Berrios pitching tonight for Minnesota, I have to think they get back into the win column. Yes, I'm on the record as saying 2018 would be a "regression year" in the Twin Cities, but Chicago also projects to be the worst team in the American League when all is said and done. Even w/ the Twins losing 12 of their last 14 games, they still have a better record than the White Sox. Go w/ the visitors here. How could you not think Minnesota would regress in 2018? Last year, they were the biggest surprise in all of baseball. After losing 100+ games in 2016, they stunned everyone by making the AL Wild Card Game (which they lost to the Yankees) w/ 87 wins. So, it's only natural that they'd finish "somewhere in between" this season. Starter Berrios, however, is doing his best to counteract any regression. In six starts, he's posted a 3.63 ERA and 0.923 WHIP. His team start record is only 3-3 as he's off B2B subpar outings. In three of his six starts, Berrios has gone at least seven innings w/o allowing a run and given up three hits or fewer. One of those was a CG effort. His KW ratio in those three starts is 22-1 and the Twins are 3-0. However, he's also allowed four or more runs in the other three starts (all losses), failing to go even five innings in any of them. His KW ratio remained solid overall (42-5 first five starts) before turning in his worst effort of the year last time out (vs. Cincinnati), a zero strikeout performance w/ three walks. Berrios lasted only three innings in that one. The good news for Berrios here is that he'll be facing the White Sox, a team he's dominated in the past. He's 4-1 w/ a 1.67 ERA in five career starts against them and that includes seven shutout innings back on April 12th (was a -200 favorite on the ML). That start also saw him post a season-high 11 strikeouts. Yesterday's win was only the third of the year for the White Sox (in 13 tries) here at Guaranteed Rate Field. They're being outscored by 2.2 rpg here at home. It's been a tough stretch for the Twins, but note four of their last 12 losses have come in the game's final at-bat. Their luck turns tonight behind what should be a quality effort from Berrios. I don't see White Sox starter Carson Fulmer being able to match him, even though he (Fulmer) is off B2B quality starts. Fulmer has allowed seven runs in just 3 IP lifetime vs. the Twins. 8* Minnesota |
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05-02-18 | Orioles v. Angels -143 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:07 ET): I won w/ the Angels last night and won't deviate from that script tonight. Most of what I wrote in yday's analysis still applies tonight as the Halos' uncharacteristic slow start to the season at home (now 6-10) can be attributed to an 0-6 record against the Yankees and Red Sox. Against everyone else in the league, their record is now 17-6 w/ a run differential of +40. They took last night's series opener by a score of 3-2 following a wild ninth inning where they first blew a two-run lead, only to win the game in walkoff fashion. While Baltimore treated me kindly this past weekend (including a 10* Game of the Week winner on Sunday), this is not a good team as they now have the second worst record and run differential in the sport. Besides the win, the other good news for the Angels on Tuesday was the return of Shohei Ohtani to the lineup. (It was his first time back in the everyday lineup since injuring his ankle against the Yankees on Friday). He doubled, marking the 11th time in 12 games as a DH that he got at least one hit. He'll DH again tonight as his next scheduled start (two-way player, remember!) isn't until the weekend. Taking the mound tonight will be Andrew Heaney, who hopes to give his team something similar to what Nick Tropeano delivered last night w/ seven scoreless innings. It hasn't exactly been a great start to 2018 for Heaney, but he did strike out nine batters in five innings of work vs. the Yankees last week (no decision). Having made only three starts so far, Heaney's YTD numbers are still skewed by the one poor outing he had against San Francisco. This is Baltimore's worst start to a season since 2010 when they were also 8-21. Before that, you'd have to go back to the infamous 0-21 start in 1988 to find a time when an Orioles team dug itself a bigger hole. I do not see them escaping this one quite frankly. They are 3-11 on the road and giving up over six runs per game and a .303 batting average. Dylan Bundy gets the baseball tonight and while he's arguably been the O's most consistent starter thus far, that's not really saying much. He has a 2-4 TSR and a 1.714 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he was shelled for eight runs in 4 2/3 innings. I realize that the Angels have not scored more than three runs in any of the L5 games, but I'm expecting an offensive "explosion" of sorts tonight as they certainly have the pieces in their lineup to do so. 8* LA Angels |
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05-01-18 | Orioles v. Angels -172 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): It was not a good weekend for the Angels as they were swept here at home by the red hot Yankees. They've dropped four in a row overall, the second time that's happened to them this season. Interestingly, each of those losing streaks saw them get swept at home by an AL East power (Red Sox the other time). But while they're 0-6 so far against the Red Sox and Yankees, the record against everyone else is a strong 16-6. That includes a pair of wins at Houston last week. Despite coming in on a losing streak, I don't envision the Halos having much difficulty defeating the lowly Orioles this week, tonight in particular. Baltimore is one of a number of American League teams that pretty soon will have to start thinking about 2019 and beyond. That said, the Orioles are coming off a successful weekend. They took two of three from the Tigers, which was their first winning series at home this season. That right there should tell you what kind of start to the season it's been for the O's. Now, I did have them in both wins over the Tigers, Sunday's being my 10* Game of the Week. But again, those games were contested at Camden Yards. The team's road record is just 3-10. They've also still been outscored by 54 runs overall, the second worst differential in the sport right now (Kansas City worse). That number figures to only get worse w/ the likes of Alex Cobb on the bump. Cobb, a former rival pitcher w/ the Rays, continues to do the O's no favors as he's off to a 0-3 start w/ a truly horrific ERA (13.11) and WHIP (2.828). He's allowed 20 runs on 30 hits in 11 2/3 IP! The team has been outscored 31-15 in his three starts. The Angels were outscored 17-5 by the Yankees over the weekend and are now just 5-10 at home for the year. But again, if not for an 0-6 record against the Red Sox and Yankees, things would look a lot better. Having to play w/o Shohei Ohtani isn't ideal, but it can easily be overcome here, given the weak opponent. Nick Tropeano will get the baseball instead, looking to shake off a couple of subpar showings. Tropeano missed much of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but did have a quality start against Baltimore. He dominated Kansas City earlier this year and I expect similar results against the Orioles team which is batting a collective .224 overall. 8* LA Angels |
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04-30-18 | Pirates v. Nationals -109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): The Pirates have to be feeling pretty good about themselves coming into this series as they just swept the Cardinals over the weekend. They've won five in a row overall and lead the NL Central w/ a record of 17-11. But the entirety of the current win streak took place at home. Now they have to hit the road and face the Nationals in the Nation's capital. The last time the Bucs hit the road, they were swept in Philadelphia. Washington comes into this series w/ surprising 4-9 home record and they're just 12-16 overall. They avoided a sweep on Sunday by beating the Diamondbacks, 3-1. Despite the losing record, the Nats have outscored the opposition this season (admittedly, by only three runs). I like them tonight in the series opener. Gio Gonzalez led the way Sunday afternoon w/ eight strikeouts in seven innings. The Nats will be hoping for something similar here from tonight's starter, Tanner Roark, who despite a 1-4 TSR has a 3.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Over his last three starts, Roark has a 0.895 WHIP, yet has nothing to show for it w/ the team going 0-3. He's allowed just 11 hits in 19 IP, yet been charged w/ eight runs. That's unlucky just like the team start record. One would have to think if Roark continues to pitch the way he has, that the wins will start coming. He has thrown eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball against Pittsburgh before, in this ballpark no less (back in 2016). Visting teams are batting just .194 so far here in D.C.. At the same time, I have to think the Nats' hitting will start to improve here at home as they're averaging just 3.2 runs per game here thus far. Pittsburgh also got a strong starting pitching performance yday, theirs coming from a rookie that was making his big-league debut. Nick Kingham retired the first 20 batters he saw, striking out nine in the process, en route to a 5-0 win over the Cards. If I'm a Pirates fan, I'd be less optimistic about Jameson Taillon tonight. Tallion got off to a good start in 2018, but has delivered B2B poor outings, including his last time out where he surrendered seven runs on 10 hits in just 3 2/3 IP. That followed up a 1 2/3 inning outing where he allowed five runs. Supporters will point to Taillon's B2B scoreless efforts before that, but note those came against the Reds and Marlins, the two worst teams the Senior Circuit has to offer. I was not high on the Bucs coming into the season while the Nats have been one of the NL's bigger disappointments thus far. I believe things begin to start "working themselves out" tonight. 10* Washington |
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04-29-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -145 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:05 ET): The Orioles returned to their losing ways on Saturday, falling 9-5. This on the heels of a 6-0 victory Friday that I was on. In my analysis for Friday's opener, I made mention that the O's came into this series w/ revenge as the Tigers had swept them (in Detroit) earlier in the month. The outlook is admittedly looking bleak for Baltimore in 2018, but I still have faith they can fight back and take this series. It's not as if the Tigers are any "great shakes" this season either. This game carries a lot of importance to the home team as it has a chance to mark the Orioles' first winning home series of the season! They send Kevin Gausman to the bump and after a rocky first outing, he's been much better of late. Go w/ Baltimore, who has been the bettors choice throughout this three-game set. In his 1st start of the year, Gausman was tagged for six runs in a loss to Minnesota. Since then, he's been a lot better, posting a 3.24 ERA in four starts. Last time out, he went eight innings and allowed just two runs on four hits. The team still lost mind you, but that was to a good Cleveland team (2-1). That makes it three straight quality starts for Gausman, two of them the team has failed to take advantage of. Coincidentially, one of them came against these Tigers as he went six innings and allowed just two runs (both on solo HR's). Baltimore lost that game 6-5 despite scoring four times in the final two innings. A three-run eighth temporarily gave them a 4-2 lead, only for the bullpen to give it right back. The O's then tied the game back up at 5-5 w/ a run in the top of the ninth, only to lose on a Dixon Machado walk-off HR. It's been "that kind of season" in Baltimore, quite frankly. The Tigers' offense came into yesterday's game on a 22-inning scoreless streak, having been shutout in B2B games. They were able to jump out to a 7-0 lead though and that proved to be more than enough despite the Orioles' late attempt at a rally. Baltimore's offense has scored 16 runs total the L3 games. Tonight, they'll face Daniel Norris, who has made only one start in 2018 for the Tigers and it came against the sorry Royals. Sadly for Norris, he was not successful as the team lost 3-2. He only allowed one run on three hits, but he lasted only 4 2/3 innings and had three walks as well. Norris has worked out of the bullpen this season (four additional appearances), including in the second game of Wednesday's doubleheader vs. the Pirates. There he allowed one run and two hits in 2 IP. At the end of the day, I have to think Baltimore takes this one as they're due to start playing a little better, at least at home. 10* Baltimore |
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04-28-18 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -165 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
8* Toronto (4:07 ET): The Rangers came North of the Border and surprised the Blue Jays yday, winning 6-4 as +135 underdogs on the money line. Will they do it again? Not likely. The last two seasons have been quite interesting to evaluate in Arlington. In 2016, the team won the AL West w/ 95 wins, but only outscored its opponents by EIGHT runs the entire season! That disparity was owed to the best record EVER (in MLB history!) in one-run games as they went 36-11. Last year, they predictably dipped to 78 wins and were just 13-24 in one-run game (worst mark in MLB!). Obviously, you'd expect the record in one-run games to be somewhere in the middle for 2018 (currently 1-2), but the overall outlook is not particularly rosy for a team that is in last place w/ a -37 run differential despite B2B wins. Third place in the division is probably this team's "ceiling" and even that might be generous. As for Toronto, a bounce back season was to be expected this year. They got off to a 14-8 start, but have now dropped three in a row following yday's result. They've dropped six of eight overall w/ the other losses coming to the Red Sox and Yankees. With those two in the same division, Toronto's ceiling is probably also third place this year, but a Wild Card is a real possibility for a team that has still outscored opponents by 25 runs. This is their longest losing streak to date in '18 and I see them bouncing back this afternoon against what is pretty clearly an inferior foe. After going a MLB-worst 5-14 in extra inning games LY, you'd think the Blue Jays would be afforded some better luck this year. The ageless Bartolo Colon finally had a bad start for the Rangers his last time out. After allowing only one run in B2B starts, including a stunning one-hit effort (for 7 2/3 innings) at Houston, Colon came back down to Earth exactly seven days ago when he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP to Seattle. Texas lost the game 9-7, though I'll concede that was more the bullpen's fault. The Rangers' bullpen has been surprisingly good on the road thus far, but I don't see that continuing. Toronto counters w/ Jaime Garcia, who should give them a better effort here than Marcus Stroman did yday. Garcia already pitched against the Rangers once this year and beat Cole Hamels. He's backed by a Toronto offense that is still averaging 6.0 rpg at home and should have scored more yday, given all the problems in the field Texas had. But the Blue Jays' own baserunning gaffes cost them. Today should be a more "normal" affair w/ the home team winning. 8* Toronto |
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04-28-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -169 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Many (not me) were high on Milwaukee coming into this season due to a bevy of offseason activity. But I view them as pretty clearly the third best team in their division (NL Central) even though they're off to a 16-11 start and have spent a good deal of time in first place. One thing is for certain and that's the Brew Crew are having problems w/ the Cubs, whom they are now just 1-5 against this season after taking two one-run losses to start this series. Normally, that might make me more "sympathetic" to the Brewers' cause, but consider they had a record propped up by a 6-2 mark in one-run games before coming to Wrigley Field this weekend. I was on the Cubs in the series opener Thursday (won 1-0) and will go back to them today as they look to make it three in a row in the Freindly Confines. While 5-1 against the Brewers and 8-9 vs. everyone else, the Cubs own a +30 run differential for the season. That's three times the number Milwaukee has outscored its opponents by (+10) despite the Brewers having the better overall record. To me, scoring differential has always been a better predictor of future outcomes than a team's actual won-loss record. The Brew Crew are having a really tough time scoring against the Cubs this season as they've already been shutout THREE times by them. In the six head to head matchups, they've managed only nine runs total and five of those came in the lone victory. For the Cubs, it's been nice to win w/o having to score a lot of runs. Prior to this series beginning, they'd gone just 6-5 their last 11 games. In the six wins, they never scored fewer than eight runs. In the five losses, they never scored more than three. Both of Saturday's starting pitchers have been successful each of the L3 starts. However. Milwaukee's Junior Guerra has a far better ERA and WHIP than the Cubs' Jose Quintana. Why side w/ Chicago, then? Well, for starters (pun intended!), Quintana already shut this Brewers offense down once this season, holding them scoreless for six innings back on April 8th. He allowed only three hits and that was one of the three times Milwaukee failed to score against the Cubs in 2018. Quintana has since been shaky his L2 starts, but we'll excuse him as one (vs. Atlanta) came in a torrential downpour w/ very cold temperatures while the other was in Colorado (high altitude). Guerra has yet to go a full six innings in any start this year and two of his three starts came against Miami and Cincinnati (two worst teams in the National League). Oh, by the way, Quintana has a 0.75 ERA in five career starts vs. the Brewers. 8* Chi Cubs |
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals -131 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): In this weekend battle of miserable teams, the White Sox took the series opener by a score of 6-3 on Thursday. For tonight's rematch, we've got one "heck" of a pitching matchup with Reynaldo Lopez starting for Chicago and Danny Duffy going for Kansas City. The two pitchers have combined for an 0-9 team start record thus far (Lopez 0-4, Duffy 0-5), so something is going to have to give here. It's going to take a lot for me to endorse KC in 2018 (won't happen much!), but at the same time going against the White Sox at this price seems very reasonable. Following a win, Chicago is only 1-4 this season. The White Sox have won only six games this season. Three of those wins have come against the Royals. They actually opened the season by taking B2B games from KC here at Kauffman Stadium. Going into yday, they'd lost 16 of 19 games since and were 0-4 off a win. (So, yes, the 2-0 start is the only time all season they've won B2B games). I don't see history repeating itself here, however. Last night saw KC actually outhit Chicago, 11-9, but the Southsiders made their hits count as every run scored came via a home run. There were five total HR's hit, four solo shots. That's just bad luck if you're a Royals fan. Now Duffy did allow three longballs in a somewhat disastrous start vs. Chicago to open the year. But he's allowed only one since and had gotten a lot better, that was until his most recent start, which came on the road (at Detroit). Prior to that, Duffy had allowed 3 ER or less in three consecutive outings. Lopez actually deserves far better than an 0-4 TSR. The White Sox starter has allowed just four runs total this year in 24 IP. However, he does have control issues w/ 13 walks the L3 starts. Last time out, he had twice as many walks (4) as strikeouts (2), which is never a good sign. Incredibly, the offense has scored just four times in the four starts he's made. Something to note here is that Chicago will be w/o its manager Rick Renteria due to the passing of his mother. The Royals are just 1-10 at home this season and while that's not encouraging, the record can only get better. I'm on Kansas City tonight. 10* Kansas City |
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04-27-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -107 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): This is the first of two plays today where I'll be taking the team that is looking to avenge a prior sweep. It was just a little over a week ago that the Tigers swept the Orioles in a three-game set in the Motor City. But they've since gone just 3-4 over the last seven games. Their last series was played under NL rules vs. Pittsburgh. Now Baltimore is not a good team and its outlook appears to be quite bleak for 2018. They've started 6-19 and have dropped five in a row. Chris Tillman gets the starting nod tonight and he's 0-4 in four starts w/ a 9.87 ERA and 2.366 WHIP. But I'm a firm believer in this revenge angle and this is the rare spot that the O's should handle. Thanks to the current losing streak, Baltimore has passed both Miami and Cincinnati for the worst run differential in all of MLB. So I concede that this price may not represent the best value, especially w/ Tillman pitching. Now having already faced the likes of Boston, the Yankees, Cleveland and Houston this year (inarguably the top four teams in the American League), it should come as no surprise to see the Orioles floundering. That said, they did just drop two games here at home to the Rays (opener was rained out). Tonight may be "it" for Tillman, if he doesn't pitch well, but the good news is that he's 6-1 all-time vs. Detroit w/ a 3.12 ERA. Also, the Tigers don't hit as well on the road (.237 BA). I know it was under NL rules, meaning the pitcher had to bat, but they were shutout yday in Pittsburgh thanks to going 0 for 9 w/ RISP. It was already the third time this season that the Tigers have been shutout (two of those on the road). With the AL Central projected to be very weak this season, I thought there was a chance Detroit would bounce back a bit after losing 98 games in 2017 (had AL's worst run differential as well). They certainly should be better than the Royals and White Sox. Right now, the Tigers are in second place in the division, but only 10-13 overall. They're also - curiously - only 1-8 in night games. Starting tonight will be Michael Fiers, who is off to a reasonably good start, but that's pretty much owed to his first start when he got to face the White Sox. Last time out, he was fortunate to surrender only four runs (just two earned) as he allowed 10 hits in 5 1/3 IP. He also finished w/ ZERO strikeouts. His start before that saw him hammered to the tune of six runs in 5 2/3 IP. If only for a night, I see Tillman and the Orioles turning things around here. 8* Baltimore |
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04-26-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): These teams met earlier this month in Milwaukee w/ the Cubs taking three of four. The Brew Crew enter this second season series (at Wrigley) red hot as they've won eight in a row. But that win streak comes w/ a caveat as it's been built up at the expense of three of the very worst teams in baseball: the Reds, Marlins and Royals. Those three teams own a combined 17-53 record right now, so this is definitely a step up in class for Milwaukee. The Brewers might be 16-9 overall, but they've only outscored opponents by a 12-run margin this year and that run differential was firmly "in the red" (-19) before the current win streak began. The 11-10 Cubs actually own a significantly better run differential (+28) compared to the Brewers. Like Milwaukee, the Cubs are coming off an Interleague series that was played on the road, meaning it's back to NL rules tonight. The Cubs split w/ the Indians on Tuesday/Wednesday in what was a rematch from a great 2016 World Series. Offensively, the Cubbies continue to be "feast or famine" as they've scored eight or more runs in five of the last eight games. All five times, they won. In the three losses, they've scored a total of six runs, including just one on five hits last night. Though Brewers' starter Chase Anderson has a 4-1 TSR along w/ some solid numbers (3.25 ERA, 1.048 WHIP), I see a pitcher that has already allowed six home runs this season. The Cubs were the ones that handed Anderson his only loss to date, beating him 3-0 back on April 8th. The Cubs are also 7-2 this year off a loss, so that speaks to a bounce back effort at the plate tonight. So does a return home where they are averaging a lofty 6.3 runs per game so far. The offense is both top five in slugging percentage and OBP. As for starting pitching, tonight Joe Maddon will give the baseball to Kyle Hendricks, who has allowed 3 ER or fewer in three of his previous four outings. Last time out, which was at Colorado (always a difficult place to pitch), Hendricks posted his best KW rate of the season at 6-0. A big key here for Hendricks is that he won't have to deal w/ Brewers 1B Eric Thames, who is out w/ a UCL tear in his thumb. Hendricks has pitched well in this past vs. Milwaukee, turning in a 3.01 ERA in 16 starts. While the Brewers have lost a key bat from their lineup, the Cubs may be getting Kris Bryant back here. Were it not for disparate records in one-run games (Brewers 6-2, Cubs 0-3), the NL Central standings would look much different coming into this game. The Cubs are the better team and I'll call for them to end Milwaukee's win streak. 8* Chi Cubs |
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04-26-18 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -118 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:05 ET): The surprising Phillies squared this series up at one game apiece, beating Zack Greinke 5-3 last night. While Arizona has led the NL West virtually the entire way so far in 2018 (they're now 16-7 w/ a +33 run differential), Philly is right there w/ them at 15-8 and having a +31 run differential (even though they're not in 1st place in the NL East). This afternoon sees the two teams wrapping up this three-game set and I'm going with the undervalued Phils in this situation as they've already beaten the D'backs' top pitcher (Greinke), so I see them having little difficulty w/ Matt Koch, despite what the right-hander may have done in his 1st and only start of the season. The Phillies are now 10-2 at home this year, outscoring opponents by 3.4 rpg. The Phillies have won 14 of their last 18 games overall and last night saw them overcome more poor fielding to get the 'W.' They made three errors last night, upping their YTD total to 22 in 23 games, yet that shockingly has not hurt them. After a shaky fourth inning last night, Jake Arrieta settled down and allowed little else in his seven innings of work. The D'backs managed only five hits for the game, so I like the chances for tonight's starter Blake Lively, who already has a 3-1 team start record this season. Lively is coming off his best outing of the season so far as he allowed just one run on five hits last Friday vs. Pittsburgh. As alluded to earlier, the Phillies have been dominant here at Citizens Bank Park w/ the opposition averaging just 2.6 rpg while batting a collective .201. At the same time, the Phillies offense is averaging 6.0 runs per game! Given Arizona couldn't overcome all of Philly's mistakes in the field last night, it's difficult envisioning them winning here, presuming a cleaner effort by the home team. Starter Matt Koch looked good in his 2018 season debut last Friday, but keep in mind that was against lowly San Diego. Now the D'backs have won all seven series so far this season and are a perfect 6-0 off a loss, streaks that are on the line today/ But this is as tough a spot as they've faced to date as Philly is a dominant home team and we really don't know how trustworthy Koch really is. He's only in the D'backs rotation b/c of the season-ending injury to Taijuan Walker. Today marks just his fourth big-league start. 10* Philadelphia |
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04-25-18 | Red Sox -123 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Following a historic 17-2 start (w/ one of the losses taking place Opening Day!), all of a sudden the Red Sox have dropped three in a row. They've scored just four runs total in losing to the A's twice (were no-hit in one of the games) and then here in Toronto last night. They've also struck out a total of 34 times. But I'll call for them to get back on track Wednesday. Over the previous three seasons, Boston is 14-5 when entering a game on a losing streak of three or more games and let's not forget the Blue Jays weren't exactly playing well coming into this series either. They'd dropped three of four in New York and while they won last night in spite of giving up two runs in the top of the ninth, they did so on a walk-off HR (in the 10th) and were held to only five hits. Before Curtis Granderson's walk-off, the Blue Jays had done all of their scoring in the second inning last night. They put three on the board in that frame, but from there could manage little else. The big play was an infield single that scored two runners, something you rarely see happen. The Blue Jays were retired in order in six of the game's first eight innings. This is an offense that has gone five straight games w/o collecting 10 hits and in the previous three, they've managed just 13 total. Tonight, they'll face the unbeaten Eduardo Rodriguez, who has a 3-0 team start record. The southpaw Rodriguez is off B2B quality outings, holding the Orioles and Angels to only three runs total in 12 innings of work. Toronto seems fortunate to be averaging 5.6 runs in games where they face a left-handed starter as they are batting just .229 at the same time. Despite the three straight losses, Boston has still scored roughly twice as many runs as they have allowed and that puts them in a class all by themselves. Their run differential of +63 is the best in baseball w/ Houston (+55) the only other club north of +35. They had won seven straight here in Toronto prior to taking the loss last night. I believe the offense gets back on track tonight facing Anibal Sanchez, who has an 0-2 TSR at home thus far w/ a 5.40 ERA and 1.628 WHIP. The Red Sox are simply much better on the runs allowed side of the ledger than is Toronto and they deserve to be ML favorites in this spot North of the border. 10* Boston |
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04-25-18 | Twins v. Yankees -164 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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04-24-18 | Mets v. Cardinals -162 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -162 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): Thanks to a hot start, the Mets continue to lead the NL East, but it's been 10 days since they've won B2B games and signs of regression are in the air. While 14-6 overall, they've only outscored the opposition by 16 runs. That latter number is less than the two surprising division rivals Philadelphia and Atlanta and in fact ranks only fifth in the Senior Circuit. Starting Tuesday, they'll be at one of the teams ahead of them in run differential, that being St. Louis. The Cards just swept Cincinnati for a second time this year and while they're only 6-8 against teams "not named the Reds," I believe tonight's opener is likely to go their way. Look for starter Lance Weaver to bounce back from a rough outing last Thursday, which happens to be the ONLY game the Cards have lost over the past week. These teams opened the season against one another w/ the Mets taking two of three at Citi Field. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom pitched NY to victories in the first two games of that series, but the Metropolitans could not overcome Weaver in the series finale, losing 5-1. That happened to be the Mets' lone loss in the first 12 games, but they've since fallen back down to Earth, losing five of their last eight. Over the weekend, they dropped two of three to Atlanta (Sunday rained out) w/ the one win coming in extra innings. Moving forward, I seriously doubt the Mets are going to be able to continue scoring 5.0 rpg on the road as their team batting average away from Citi Field is just .215. Starter Zach Wheeler did not pitch in that first series vs. St. Louis, but is 0-2 all-time against the Cardinals w/ a 4.76 ERA. Wheeler has started only two times thus far, but he'll start to come up in the rotation more often now that Matt Harvey has been jettisoned. The good news for Wheeler is that he was great in his first start, which saw him go seven innings and allow just one run on two hits. But that was also against sorry Miami. Last time out, he did offer a quality start by going six innings and allowing just three runs. But he had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2), which isn't a good sign. Meanwhile, Weaver has a 17-3 KW ratio and should bounce back from the rough effort vs. the Cubs last week. In his first three starts, Weaver allowed 2 ER or less and just 4 total. His one home start thus far saw him hold Arizona to just one run on three hits in 6 1/3 IP. 8* St. Louis |
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04-23-18 | A's -126 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Oakland (8:05 ET): Go ahead and tip your cap to the A's for what they did over the weekend, beating Boston twice. Lefty Sean Manaea pitched the first no-hitter in almost a quarter century vs. the Red Sox on Saturday, striking out 10, in a 3-0 win on Saturday. Then came Sunday when Kris Davis hit a game-winning, three-run homer in the bottom of the eighth to give the team a 4-1 victory. Consider that going into the weekend, Boston had lost only two times all season and one of those ocurred on Opening Day! Oakland's own record is now "squared away" at 11-11 as they head to Arlington to face Texas. While concern over a "letdown" is legitimate in this spot, I'm not overly worried as these Rangers are not a good team. They own the AL's fourth-worst record and run differential. Overall, the A's have won six of their last seven ballgames. In five of those wins, they've allowed two runs or fewer. They'll hand the baseball to Trevor Cahill tonight, hoping he cotinues the trend. Cahill is responsible for one of those five gems as his 1st start of '18 really could not have gone any better as he pitched seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball w/ 8 K's. Granted, it came against the White Sox, but Texas isn't much better. The Rangers rank in the bottom third of the league in runs scored per game and even w/ yday's 7-4 win over Seattle (allowed them to avoid a sweep), they're just 3-10 at home this season. Cahill is 10-4 w/ a 2.79 ERA in 17 career starts vs. Texas, who has posted B2B wins only one time this season. It also helps Cahill's cause that the Oakland offense has been rounding into form. Over the last seven games, the team is averaging 6.0 rpg w/ a collective batting average of .279. Meanwhile, pitching has been the weak spot for this Texas club, who is 25th in runs per game allowed (5.2). They got a surprisingly strong effort from Martin Perez yday vs. the Mariners, but I wouldn't count on the same thing today from Matt Moore, who is struggling w/ a 5.59 ERA and 1.707 WHIP after four starts. That's even after a quality showing last week vs. Tampa Bay. But in his first three starts, Moore had allowed 12 runs in 12 1/3 IP and twice had more walks than strikeouts (that's never a good sign). He also is 1-2 all-time vs. Oakland w/ a 7.07 ERA. Visiting teams are averaging 6.4 rpg so far at Globe Life Stadium thanks to a stunning .296 batting average. 10* Oakland |
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04-22-18 | Cubs -131 v. Rockies | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (3:10 ET): After walloping the Rockies here at Coors Field on Friday (16-5!), the Cubs gave one back on Saturday, losing by a score of 5-2. If you're a regular client of mine, you know that I often point to run differential as an instructional tool for how a team is truly performing. Looking at that particular column for these two teams is particularly interesting. Colorado may be 12-10 on the year, but they have been outscored by 22 runs, "thanks" in large part to giving up nearly 5.0 runs per game. Sure, it's easy to blame "the Coors Field effect" for that, but note the Rockies have played 14 of their 22 games so far on the road. Meanwhile, the Cubs (who are only 9-9) have a run differential of +22 on the season, best in their division and 4th best overall in the Senior Circuit. To me, it's pretty clear that the Cubs are the better team here & I'll take 'em! Free agent acquisition Yu Darvish started yday for the Cubs and for the third time in four starts, he failed to make it out of the fifth inning. We'll certainly be hoping for a better outing from today's starter Carlos Martinez, whose early season returns have likewise not been that encouraging. Two of his three starts have been bad, but note in the third (at Milwaukee), he delivered six scoreless innings of three-hit ball. I'll excuse what happened his last time out as the conditions were miserable in Atlanta w/ 38 degree temperatures and steady rain. Martinez, a native Colombian, didn't really stand a chance. However, it should be noted that the Cubs (who I had in the game) came back and won 14-10. The last time Martinez pitched here at Coors Field, he was wearing a White Sox uniform for the final time and delivered 10 K's in 5 1/3 IP. Ironically, he got a no-decision in that start when his team blew the game. The Cubs' offense has largely been "feast or famine" these last eight games. In the four wins, they've scored eight runs or more, including 13+ three times. In the four losses, they've been held to three or fewer. One would think that Coors Field would make things conducive to a strong offensive effort and I suspect we'll get something a lot better than yesterday (even if it's not as impressive as Friday). They'll face German Marquez, who has a 3-1 TSR despite a 4.34 ERA and 1.393 WHIP. He hasn't lasted long in either home start (just 7 2/3 innings total) and gave up seven runs (w/ six walks!) in one of them. The Rockies' offense has been surprisingly scuffling in the early going of the season as they rank last in the NL in team batting average (.218) and they are next to last in OBP (.293). Even in victory yday, they managed only five hits and four of those came in the one inning where they scored all of their runs. 10* Chi Cubs |
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04-21-18 | Mariners -157 v. Rangers | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:05 ET): I tried coming into 2018 w/ a slightly more optimistic view of the Rangers than most, but this simply looks like a bad baseball team that won't be winning many games. They dropped Friday's series opener w/ the division rival Mariners by a score of 6-2 and thus have fallen to 7-14 on the season, including just 2-9 here in Arlington. They've already been outscored by 36 runs, which isn't the worst margin in all of baseball, but it's not far off (Miami is the worst at -55). Though Bartolo Colon has been one of the few pleasant surprises for the club and will get the starting nod tonight, I'm not sure how confident we should be in him continuing the performances we've seen in his first two starts. Go with the Mariners in this one. Seattle will counter Colon w/ James Paxton, who is already making his fifth start of the season (where does the time go?). After a shaky first outing, Paxton has rebounded to allow 2 ER or fewer in each of his L3 starts w/ 24 strikeouts in 23 IP. Last time out, he outdueled Houston's Dallas Keuchel in a 2-1 win as he allowed only one run (on a solo HR) on just three hits in six innings of work. Tonight, he'll face a Texas lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The Rangers are averaging only 3.3 rpg so far and have been held below that average in seven of the last nine games! They are also just 1-4 vs. left-handed starters this season. In his last start, Colon became the oldest pitcher to take a no-hit bid into the eighth inning or later since Gaylord Perry in 1983. He was actually perfect through seven innings. But I would expect steep regression in this spot as he faces a Seattle lineup that pounded out 14 hits last night. Yes, it was a four-run ninth that was the difference for the M's last night, but if not for some strong defense by Texas, the game wouldn't have been as close. Something else worth tracking is that the road team has won seven straight head to head meetings in this AL West rivalry. 10* Seattle |
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04-21-18 | Indians -171 v. Orioles | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Like many of the projected favorites to win their respective divisions, the Indians are scuffling right now. They're only 9-8, but I wouldn't worry yet as the American League Central looks very weak on paper in 2018 w/ only Minnesota likely to offer the Tribe anything closely resembling "competition." Furthermore, the Indians' pitching remains top-notch. They are currently top three in ERA, quality starts, WHIP and opposing batting average. Only Houston and Boston are allowing fewer runs per game. Therefore, this "slow start" is clearly "owed" to an offense, which ranks near the bottom of the league in most key categories. But after managing only one run last night here at Camden Yards, I'll call for them to get back on track this afternoon. Baltimore pitching has not been anywhere near as prolific as that of Cleveland as the O's have given up the third MOST runs per game in the league. Of course, starting pitching has never been a strength w/ this club, at least under Buck Showalter, who has managed to succeed here through a lot of "smoke and mirrors" and because of an excellent bullpen. But the bullpen hasn't been particularly great so far for the O's, due in large part to the fact they have been w/o closer Zach Britton the whole way. I do not expect the starting effort from Chris Tillman to be very good today either considering he's opened 2018 by going 0-3 w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.824 WHIP. Those are some of the worst numbers in the sport, though it should be pointed out he's had to face three of the top teams in the AL (NYY, BOS, HOU), all on the road. While they did win last night, Baltimore had lost six in a row before that. Cleveland has had an interesting last seven days as there were numerous postponements last weekend for their scheduled series at home vs. Toronto. Then, it was off to Puerto Rico where they split a pair of games vs. Minnesota. They scored their lone run in the first inning last night, but it should be noted they were facing a good starter in Dylan Bundy. Tonight, they should get back on track against the struggling Tillman. They've gone 1 for 22 w/ RISP the L2 games, which is certainly due to turn around. Mike Clevinger gets the starting nod and had 14 K's in 16 2/3 IP so far. Consider the Orioles are averaging just 2.1 rpg while batting a collective .183 at Camden Yards this season. As a road favorite of -175 or higher, the Tribe has gone 16-7 the past three seasons. 8* Cleveland |
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04-20-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -172 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -172 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): My belief was that this was the series where the Yankees would start to establish themselves in the AL East race and I was rewarded for taking them yday as they prevailed 4-3 over the Blue Jays. Now, I'll call for them to do what they did up in Toronto to start the year and that's take the first two games of a four-game set. The Bronx Bombers came into the year as the consensus favorite to win the division, but they have a lot of work to do now thanks to the historically great start by rival Boston (who is now 16-2!). The Yanks are just 9-8 and still 2.5 gms back of the Jays even after yday's result. But I see the home team continuing to ascend this weekend as they begin to live up to their vast potential. New York came into Thursday's series opener w/ a bit of an edge already as they were off Wednesday while Toronto had played three times in the previous two days (played a doubleheader on Tuesday). They were able to take an early 2-0 lead, but the Jays then rallied to tie in the top of the fourth. From there, the Yanks bounced back w/ two more, including an Aaron Judge home run. But the key was reliever David Robertson pitching his way out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the eighth. Of course, given the dollars invested in this Yankees' bullpen, perhaps that shouldn't be all that surprising. Defense is still a bit of an issue here in the Bronx (NY leads AL w/ 17 errors), but offense is not as they are averaging 6.1 rpg here at home. Keep in mind that's with less than stellar results from Giancarlo Stanton. Dating back to last season, Judge has now reached base safely in 23 consecutive home games. Starting tonight for the Yankees will be Sonny Gray. The veteran is off to a bit of a shaky start in 2018, but that has more to do w/ his last start where he allowed six runs in three innings to the red-hot Red Sox. He's had a lot more success in his career vs. Toronto as he has a 2.09 ERA in nine starts w/ the current Blue Jays lineup batting a collective .215 off him. Opposing Gray will be Marco Estrada, who owns an 11-5 lifetime TSR vs. the Yankees, including a perfect 6-0 in the Bronx. But his ERA in those 16 starts is 4.02, so he's hardly dominated them. Last time out, Estrada wasn't all that effective as he allowed four runs in four innings. He's also issued three walks in two of his three starts this year. He did beat the Yankees in his first start of the season, but did allow two home runs. It might seem like a high price on the Bombers here tonight, but I feel it's more than justifiable. 6* NY Yankees |
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04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies -105 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Two of the NL's bigger early-season surprises start a four-game series Thursday in an all-Pennsylvania showdown. The City of Brotherly Love will play host as the Phillies look to continue their hot start here at Citizen's Bank Park. They are 5-1 at home and 10-7 overall while outscoring opponents by 20 runs. The Pirates are 12-6, having just avoided a sweep at hands of Colorado at home last night (won 10-2). Their run differential is a comparable +21 and they've done a good deal of their damage on the road where they are 7-2. Something will have to give here and I believe it's going to be the Bucs, who I was not a big believer in coming into the season. I'm not entirely sold on the Phils yet either, but I did see a path to success for them coming into the year. Jake Arrieta will get the baseball Thursday night for the Phillies as he faces the highest scoring team in the National League. Arrieta is no stranger to the Pirates though, having faced them numerous times over the past several seasons when he was w/ the Cubs. Arrieta's last start, despite having only only strikeout, was very good as he held Tampa Bay to just three runs (only two earned) in 6 2/3 IP. Though the Rays aren't anything special, it's still impressive that he was able to do that against an American League lineup (game was played in TB). Arrieta is 10-6 all-time vs. Pittsburgh w/ a 3.18 ERA. Note that prior to dropping two of three at similarly surprising Atlanta, the Phillies had won six straight. Admittedly, that streak came against some weak competition, but you can say the same about the teams the Pirates have been racking up wins against as well. Pittsburgh won 10-2 yday, thereby avoiding what would have been a sweep at home at the hands of Colorado. While I mentioned earlier that this was the top scoring offense in the NL right now, note that before yday's 10-run outburst, they had been held to two runs or fewer in four of five games. Starter Jameson Taillon is off to a great start this year at 2-0 w/ a 0.89 ERA and 0.689 WHIP in three starts, but he's faced some weak teams. In particular, the Reds and Marlins, both of whom he shutout for a total of 15 innings. Taillon had more walks than strikeouts his last time out and he certainly isn't going to be able to sustain his current pace moving forward. While many teams have had some unexpected days off due to weather so far, tonight marks the 10th consecutive day the Bucs will be taking the field. That may catch up w/ them as well. 10* Philadelphia |
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04-19-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -148 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (6:35 ET): These two teams started the season by playing one another and ended up splitting a four-game set North of the Border. Since then, however, it has been the Jays taking flight as they are now 12-3 their L15 games after opening 0-2. The Yankees are a meandering 8-8 overall after they could only manage a split against the lowly Marlins and had multiple games vs. Detroit rained out. Both teams are currently staring up at the insanely hot Red Sox, who have gone 15-1 since their own Opening Day loss. But I suspect this series, tonight in particular, will see the team wearing pinstripes start to move up the AL East ladder. They're far too talented to have a mediocre record for long and they've hit quite well at home so far this season. The Blue Jays are one of just four teams to have crossed 100 runs scored this season, but in this matchup they're facing a team that averages a slightly higher number of runs per game (5.6 vs. 5.5) than they do. The Yankees average an impressive 6.4 runs per game here in the Bronx where they have not played in over 10 days. They've got a bit of a built-in advantage coming into Thursday in that they were off yday while Toronto was wrapping up its series w/ lowly Kansas City (won 15-5). The day before saw the Blue Jays play a doubleheader (swept that too). Meanwhile, the Yankees have played just twice since Saturday, so they're well-rested coming into this key early-season AL East showdown. Starting here for the Yanks is the hefty lefty CC Sabathia, who is not exactly off to the best of starts here in 2018. Last time we saw him was nearly two weeks ago vs. Baltimore and he gave up three home runs before exiting in the fourth inning. The Yankees have lost both of his starts so far. He spent sometime on the DL w/ sore hip, but like the team, the veteran southpaw is well-rested coming into this evening. He faced Toronto in the first start of the season and is 17-11 all-time against them w/ a 3.59 ERA. He'll be opposed by Aaron Sanchez, who is using a change-up a lot more often this year and having a good deal of success w/ it. But he also allowed four runs when he faced the Yanks in that first series of the year, lasting only 5 2/3 IP. In two of his three starts so far, Sanchez has had more walks than strikeouts, obviously not a good sign. 8* NY Yankees |
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04-18-18 | Red Sox v. Angels -125 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:07 ET): In what setup as a marquee early season showdown in the American League, the Angels came up "small" at home on Tuesday, losing to the Red Sox by a score of 10-1. Now, much of the "sizzle" of the matchup was taken away when Angels' starter Shohei Ohtani had to leave the game in the second inning due to a blister on his pitching hand. Not that Ohtani was pitching well anyway. He allowed the first three runs and from there, it was pretty much over as Boston ended up w/ a massive 33-4 edge in total bases for the game. The loss snapped the Halos' seven-game win streak. However, I expect them to bounce back tonight as - last night aside - I'm still a bit skeptical over Boston's start as they've racked up a lot of wins so far against bad teams. The Angels are still off to the best start in franchise history (13-4 overall) and though it was disappointing to lose yday in front of such a big crowd, they may be better positioned to win tonight. Tyler Skaggs will get the starting nod and he's looked great in each of his first three starts this season. He's yet to yield more than two earned runs in any of them and last time out he was able to overcome four walks in what ended up being an easy 11-1 win at Texas. Skaggs has allowed just three runs total in his 16 IP and hasn't given up a single home run. The long-ball doomed the Angels last night as Red Sox leadoff man Mookie Betts hit three himself. Something interesting to note, however, is that Boston has yet to homer in B2B games all season. Pitching has been the real key to Boston's sizzling start as they've allowed three runs or fewer in 13 of the last 15 games. They've lost just one time since Opening Day and that was to the Yankees. But, as mentioned in yday's analysis, they've racked up a lot of wins against bad teams, such as five against Tampa Bay as well as sweeps of Baltimore and Miami. Rick Porcello will get the baseball tonight after taking a no-hitter into the seventh innings his last time out. He's delivered complete game efforts each of his last two times starting here in Anaheim and won five straight decisions dating back to last year. He's 3-0 w/ 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP so far in 2018, but at this price I can't help but get down on the Angels. Porcello's career marks vs. LA are NOT good as he's 6-7 w/ a 5.82 ERA in 16 starts. Boston is the 1st team to start a season 14-2 since the '03 Giants, so they're due to drop a game. 10* LA Angels |
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04-17-18 | Dodgers -185 v. Padres | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): The Dodgers haven't had the best start to the season, thanks in large part to their struggles w/ the division rival Diamondbacks. But this series w/ a lesser NL West team, San Diego, should get them back on track. They easily took Monday's series opener, 10-3, at Petco Park and I anticipate they'll roll again tonight. While there may not be a "clear cut" worst team in MLB coming into the 2018 season, I submit the Padres as a contender to that dubious distinction as LY's team may have won 71 games (which isn't very good to begin with), but they were also outscored by a hideous 212 run margin, easily the worst in all of baseball. (The next worst margin was -159). Last year's NL West Champs move closer to a sweep after tonight. Alex Wood has an 0-3 TSR and a 5.09 ERA so far for the Dodgers and gets the baseball tonight. However, those numbers are highly misleading when you consider he also sports a 0.792 WHIP! How can one pitcher's ERA and WHIP be "world's apart" like that, you ask? Well, in his last start, Wood surrendered seven runs on seven hits, lasting only 3 2/3 IP. Of the 14 baserunners he's allowed this year, 10 have scored, which is highly irregular. Consider that opponents are batting just .209 against him and he has yet to issue a single walk. Needless to say, the percentage of baserunners scoring is going to decrease moving forward. Tonight seems like a logical place for that trend to begin as Wood has had plenty of success against the Padres in his career. He has a 2.62 ERA in 12 career starts against them w/ 54 K's in 57 IP. That includes a 2.25 ERA here at Petco w/ 35 K's in 28 IP. San Diego starter Bryan Mitchell has a 5.27 ERA and 2.121 WHIP, but unlike Wood, there's no "sugarcoating" those lousy numbers. He too has an 0-3 TSR, but while Wood hasn't walked a single batter, Mitchell has walked 14! That's in only 13 2/3 IP as well. He has just three strikeouts, so he has to have the worst KW rate of any starter in baseball right now. He's yet to go six full innings in any start and lasted only three his last time out. The last two times Mitchell has started, the Padres have been shutout. Including a win earlier this season, the Dodgers are now 27-14 as road favorites of -175 or higher on the money line. Padres' pitching has now given up at least nine runs the last four times they've faced the Dodgers. 8* LA Dodgers |
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04-17-18 | Red Sox v. Angels -148 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -148 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): What a matchup we have here as the two hottest teams in the American League square off in the City of Angels. Boston and Los Angeles have started the season at 13-2 and 13-3 respectively and have - by far - the two best run differentials in the sport so far (Angels w/ slight edge at +48 to +42). Something else the Halos have in this series is homefield advantage. While they're 9-1 on the road, that will certainly help against a team like the Red Sox, who have won 13 of 14 since losing on Opening Day. Making matters even more intriguing is the Angels have two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani on the mound as his scheduled start on Sunday was pushed back due to rain. Backed by the top offense in the game, I like Ohtani & the Halos tonight. Boston was also rained out yesterday for what was supposed to the annual Patriot's Day game (vs. Baltimore). They'd taken the first three games for the O's, so the team was probably pretty bummed they couldn't rack up another likely win. But as hot as the Red Sox have been, let's note that they've largely been feasting on some pretty weak competition thus far. They did take two of three from the rival Yankees last week (at Fenway), but other than that they've played the Rays (six times), Orioles and Marlins. Those could very well end up as three of the bottom five teams in baseball by season's end, so take Boston's MLB-best 2.06 ERA w/ a "grain of salt." It's rare to find tonight's starter David Price in the underdog role, but he hasn't had much success in his career against LA, going just 5-7 w/ a 3.53 ERA in 16 starts. This will be one of the rare times that Price is NOT the best pitcher taking the mound in a given matchup. That's because he's matched up w/ Ohtani, who is quickly becoming the talk of baseball w/ his two-way exploits. In addition to already hitting three home runs as a DH, Ohtani has won both starts (both against Oakland) thanks to a ridiculous 0.462 WHIP. Last time out, he carried a perfect game into the seventh inning. He exited after allowing just one hit and posting 12 K's. Having a pitcher of that caliber is enough for my endorsement here, but when you back it up w/ the top offense in the game, it becomes a no-brainer. The Angels lead MLB in team batting average (.291), home runs (26) and OPS (.825). They destroyed the Royals over the weekend and have won seven in a row overall. Also, take note that Price left his last start early (after allowing four runs in the 1st inning) due to numbness in his pitching hand. That is the only game Boston has lost since Opening Day. 8* LA Angels |
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04-17-18 | White Sox v. A's -162 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:05 ET): I'm not exactly "high" on the A's coming into the year, but that didn't stop me from taking (and cashing) them yday in what ended up being a relatively easy 8-1 win. Starter Daniel Mengden hadn't pitched well previously, but I said he would Monday night and sure enough he carried a shutout into the ninth inning. Of course, a large part of that endoresement had to do w/ who Mengden and the A's were facing, a lowly White Sox club that I'm expecting even less from in 2018. In only 13 games played this year, Chicago has already given up 71 runs. That's an average of over 5.0 per game, which obviously won't win you many ballgames. It's a similar read for tonight as I believe this series is one of the few all year that I'll be heavy on Oakland. Maybe it was the long layoff, but the White Sox appeared rusty Monday. Thanks to mother nature, they hadn't taken the field since Thursday and it showed, particularly in the field as they committed four errors. It was bad enough that they couldn't solve Mengden, a pitcher that came in sporting some pretty bleak numbers and was 0-10 all-time (in 13 starts) here at the O.co Coliseum. They had almost as many errors (4) as they did hits (6) in the game as the offensive numbers remain pretty sad. Not only have the White Sox scored only three runs total in the last three games, they've been held to two or fewer six times already. The bullpen is pretty bad too w/ a 5.97 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. This puts a lot of pressure on tonight's starter Miguel Gonzalez, who has been bad in both starts so far this season (8.68 ERA, 2.144 WHIP) and never beaten the A's in five career tries (0-3, 4.11 ERA). Gonzalez has given up three home runs already this season. Tonight marks the first time Oakland is coming off B2B wins. It's also going to be a unique atmosphere in the Coliseum as there will actually be people in the stands! Thanks to a giveaway where fans can attend for free, the A's are expecting their biggest house of the season tonight and have even opened the bleachers. This was done in conjuction w/ the 50th anniversary of the team moving to Oakland. Speaking of the past, the team has called up Trevor Cahill to start Tuesday's game. Cahill pitched here in Oakland from 2009-11 before being moved and was an All-Star in 2010. He made two starts for Triple-A Nashville and given what we saw Mengden do last night, this is a great spot for him. The White Sox are very bad and their record as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range is 18-46 the L3 seasons. 8* Oakland |
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04-16-18 | White Sox v. A's -140 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
8* Oakland (10:05 ET): Not much is expected from either of these two clubs in 2018, but neither is off a loss coming into today's series opener as the White Sox were rained out Sunday and the A's won. Chicago is off to a 4-8 start, playing fewer games than most due to Mother Nature. With the second fewest number of games played to this point (Twins have played only 11), the fact that the White Sox have given up 63 runs looks even worse, especially when you compare it to a team like the Red Sox, who have played in 15 games, yet given up only 47 runs. Now Oakland is near the bottom of the league in the number of total runs allowed, but on a per game basis, they're actually giving up the same number as Chicago (5.3). But they're scoring more and I like them at home. Reynaldo Lopez has a 0.69 ERA and 0.846 WHIP through two starts, yet nothing to show for it (0-2 TSR). Of course, pitching for the White Sox, that only "comes w/ the territory." Now, Lopez was supposed to pitch each of the L3 days, but each time the weather would not cooperate. In fact, the White Sox were only able to get in one game over the weekend at Minnesota and in it, they were shutout (4-0). So Lopez will be taking the hill here on a lengthy eight days' rest, which almost might be TOO much. Impressive as he's been, Lopez did issue five walks in his last start, which is obviously concerning. So too is the White Sox lack of offense. Not only were they shut out in their last game, they managed only three hits. In the last six games, they've not had more than nine hits and have scored just 12 runs total (being shut out twice). For Oakland, this will be Daniel Mengden's fourth start of the season and the team is hoping for something similar to what they got yesterday from Sean Manaea in Seattle. Manaea pitched seven innings yesterday, giving up only one run (on a solo HR) on two hits as the A's beat the Mariners 2-1. Thanks to Manaea, the team's bullpen should be ready to go, if needed here. Mengden has somewhat incredibly never won at home in 13 tries, going 0-10. Tonight's game marks as good a shot as any at ending that embarrassing streak. Oakland took five of six from the White Sox last season and this is the team's return home after an eight-game trip along the West Coast. While the A's have yet to post B2B wins this season, I can't see a bad White Sox team that hasn't played much baseball of late coming in and taking this one. 8* Oakland |
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04-15-18 | Phillies v. Rays -145 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:10 ET): A couple things right off the bat. One, yes, I'm well aware how "ugly" of a start it has been to the season for the host Rays (who are now 3-11 after losing again yday). Two, I'm also aware of the pitching change here as it will now be Ryan Yarbrough getting the starting nod. It probably won't be a long outing for Yarbrough though as he's primarily worked as a long reliever in his big league career. Sunday actually marks his first career start. In many ways, Yarbrough being called upon here is emblematic of the Rays start to the season. Their starting rotation is in tatters w/ only three healthy arms available. That has left manager Kevin Cash to go with "bullpen" days where it's a committee-like approach and the actual starter is expected not to go deep into the game. The thing is that these "bullpen days" have typically produced better results than have the actual starting pitchers. The team's three healthy starters - Chris Archer, Blake Snell and Jake Faria - have combined for a 6.00 ERA this season. In the team's other games, Rays' pitching has produced a collective 1.15 ERA. Archer lasted only four innings yday in a 9-4 loss. While starting pitching will always be an important "cog" in MLB handicapping, sometimes it's still about "playing the teams" and that's what I'm doing here as I'm more concerned w/ how the Rays are looking to avoid a sweep at home. Note that while the team is an AL-worst 3-11 thus far, seven of those losses have been by one run. I think the hosts are "due" for one on Sunday. The Phillies have won five in a row and are three games over .500 for the first time in almost two years. They've outscored opponents almost 2:1 during the five-game run (27-14), but I remain leery of a team that just picked up its second road win of the year yday. Phillies hitters are batting a collective .188 so far away from home. I also don't know how much I'd trust starter Blake Lively in this spot, seeing as he's facing an American League lineup and just allowed five runs his last time out to a bad Cincinnati team that was sending the pitcher up to bat. I guess what I'm saying is that you can "color me skeptical" of the Phillies right now and I just can't see them pulling off a sweep on the road at this point. 8* Tampa Bay |
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04-14-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -162 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -162 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (9:10 ET): What is in the water in the National League West. The D'backs beat the Dodgers again last night, 8-7, thus improving to 4-0 in the season series. Los Angeles may have gone to the World Series last year, including a quick three-game sweep of Arizona in the LDS. However, they have now lost TEN straight times to their division rival in the regular seasons! Arizona is off to its best start in franchise history (now 10-3), but I expect them to start regressing quickly, even if the numbers don't necessarily bear that out. They failed to avenge the earlier season sweep yday, but after a late rally ultimately fell short, I believe the Dodgers will do so today. Take them in what is a big-time spot. Last night saw Arizona jump all over LA starter Kenta Maeda, scoring five times in 2 2/3 innings. It was 7-2 before you knew it and they held on for an 8-7 win, their fourth victory of the season by exactly one run. Allowing the opponent to score first has been a major problem for the Dodgers so far this season as they are 0-7 when that happens. So starting strong tonight is of the utmost importance. They'll hand the baseball to Rich Hill, who thus far has only faced the Giants twice. He was far more impressive the first time around, which is not that surprising, and the good news is that start came at home. He allowed just five hits in six scoreless innings. While his career record vs. Arizona is not that great, Hill has limited their hitters to just a .238 average. I realize that the D'backs have eaten up southpaw starters thus far (6-0 against them!), but I do not see that continuing here. Hill will be opposed here by Taijuan Walker, who pitched well in both visits to Chavez Ravine last season. But the LA native wasn't nearly as sharp when he faced them earlier this month at Chase Field as he surrendered three runs in five innings of work. Just like Hill struggled more in the second go around against the Giants, I expect the same here from Walker against the Dodgers. It does appear as if the home team is picking things up at the plate as they've now scored a total of 13 times in the last two games. It is obviously very difficult to continue beating the same opponent time after time, especially if it's a division rival. The fact that Arizona has now beaten the Dodgers 10 straight times in the regular season makes little sense to me and I have to believe the home team is ready to claim its revenge here tonight. 10* LA Dodgers |
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04-14-18 | Braves v. Cubs -176 | Top | 10-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (2:20 ET): Enough is enough, Cubs! The team lost again Friday, 4-0 to Atlanta, dropping a game below .500. It was already the third time this season that they have been shutout and the fifth game they were held to one run or fewer. Yu Darvish's Wrigley debut was spoiled yday as the game basically turned on one inning, the fifth, when a Darvish balk opened the door for the Braves' only scoring of the game. Three of the four runs came via one swing of the bat, a Preston Tucker home run. That one inning was more than enough as the Cubs were three-hit by Atlanta starter Anibal Sanchez. Fortunately though, the Braves have not performed well when coming off a shutout win. They are just 3-12 in that role the L3 seasons and lost once earlier this year in that situation, getting shutout themselves. I like what I saw from Jose Quintana his last time out and thus will go w/ him today. The Cubs starter tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball on Sunday, striking out six, as the team beat Milwaukee 3-0. That was a dramatic improvement from his first start where Quintana allowed six runs. Today marks his 1st start of the season at Wrigley. Down the stretch last year, Quintana was excellent, posting a sub-1.00 ERA his final eight starts. Yes, the team did lose both times he started in the postseason, but he was also opposing Clayton Kershaw. Quintana has won both of his career starts vs. Atlanta, who isn't exactly hitting the cover off the baseball either right now. Over the first seven games of this road trip, Braves hitters are batting a collective .230 and averaging just 3.4 runs per game. It's pretty shocking to see Atlanta at 8-5 and having outscored its opponents by 30 runs. I suspect we'll start to see them fall down the standings sooner rather than later as I can't see the bullpen continuing to perform at its current level. Starter Sean Newcomb has two starts under his belt in 2018 and they've gone similar to his counterpart Quintana as he struggled the first time out before tossing six scoreless innings the last time we saw him (in Coors Field, no less). But he has struggled in his only two career starts vs. Chicago, losing them both while posting a 6.10 ERA. Something else to keep in mind is thatt he Cubs have outscored the opposition by nine runs this season despite having a 6-7 record. They'll get back on track this afternoon. 8* Chi Cubs |
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04-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -132 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -132 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): This weekend is all about revenge for Dodger Blue as they were swept out in Arizona roughly 10 days ago. Those three games are largely responsible for the discrepancy in the standings between these two NL West rivals as the D'backs are sitting pretty atop the division w/ a 9-3 record while LA is languishing at 4-7. But I expect things to go a whole lot differently here at Chavez Ravine. The Dodgers didn't do a whole lot of scoring in that first go-around w/ Arizona, getting held to 1 and 0 runs in two of the losses. Already, six of the Dodgers' games this season have been shutouts - one way or the other - and they are 3-3 in those games. Arizona has been propped up by its pitching thus far, but it's tough to like them here w/ the revenge angle plus the fact this is their third stop of the current road trip. While there's been an irregular number of shutouts so far in Dodgers' games, Wednesday's loss to the A's was the exception to that rule. They fell 16-6, giving up more runs than they had in the previous four games combined. But if Kenta Maeda's 1st start of '18 was any indication, then they can count on not needing to put up many runs tonight in order to achieve victory. Two weeks ago, Maeda blanked the Giants over five innings, striking out 10 batters. He also added one more scoreless inning, in relief, on April 7th after his second start (scheduled for the previous day) was rained out. Mother nature has not really cooperated for the Dodgers, who have already had four days off. Thus, they've failed to get into any kind of rhythm. Yet, I suspect this series will carry a ton of importance in the clubhouse. Arizona counters w/ Zack Greinke, who you might think would be in good spot due to his time spent pitching in a Dodgers' uniform. However, you would be incorrect. In three starts in an Arizona uniform at Dodger Stadium, Greinke has a 7.56 ERA. He also isn't exactly off to the best start here in '18. He does have a 14-0 KW ratio, but also allowed five runs in five innings his last time out and has surrendered a home run in both starts. Arizona has won all four of its series thus far, but I see that streak coming to an end this weekend. They certainly won't sweep the Dodgers a second straight time. I love the home team in this spot. 10* LA Dodgers |
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04-13-18 | Angels -143 v. Royals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (8:15 ET): The Halos are garnering a lot of attention right now, both for the overall team performance (off to an 11-3 start!) and for the individual accomplishments of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani. The team, which won its fifth straight game yday, is not only sporting the nice record, but also a MLB-best +45 run differential. They easily beat the Royals on Thursday, 7-1, led by Ohtani's three-run triple. Mike Trout also homered. I expect another easy win tonight. The Royals are at the opposite end of the spectrum right now and should remain there for the balance of this season. I've written about this before, but there's just no offense here and the strength of the club the past few seasons - the bullpen - has been dismantled. I had KC regressing in a major way in 2018 and it looks as if I was correct. For the second straight game, the Angels will send a pitcher making his 2018 debut to the mound. Last night, it was Nick Tropeano, who was coming off Tommy John surgery and making his first big-league start in almost TWO years. All he did was throw 6 2/3 scoreless innings. Tonight, it will be Andrew Heaney, already the seventh starter used (in just 15 games!) by the Angels this season. Heaney should have little difficulty w/ a Royals lineup that has scored an AL-low 32 runs so far. Making that number look even worse is the fact that 10 of those 32 runs came in one game. The team has yet to win a game this year in which it did not shutout its opponent (3-8 record) and they've been held to three runs or fewer nine times. Last night marked the fifth time in 11 games they scored just one run. While the Royals offense has been scuffling early on, the Angels' leads the league in runs scored. Tonight, LA faces Jason Hammel, who is off a strong showing at Cleveland last weekend, but ultimately it was not enough as the team fell 3-1. I don't look for a repeat of the six scoreless innings Hammel tossed on Sunday, for a number of reasons. One is that he traditionally pitches worse at home. He posted a 4.94 ERA at Kauffman Stadium last year. He also has not done well in the past against the Angels (5.30 ERA in seven starts). Something else to keep in mind is that Hammel logged career highs in number of starts and IP last season. Speaking of last season, KC was very fortunate to finish 80-82 as they were outscored by 89 runs. This year, we should find them at the bottom of the standings most of the way. 8* LA Angels |
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04-13-18 | Brewers v. Mets -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets are off to an absolutely blistering start as they've won eight straight and are 10-1 out of the gate. Making that record all the more impressive is that they're 6-0 on the road. We knew that, if healthy, this team had a top five rotation in all of baseball. Health, or rather lack of it, was the primary culprit in LY's ugly fall from grace that resulted in 92 losses. But this year (at least so far) has been a far different story w/ the team having given up the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. Clutch hitting has also helped them get off to the best start in franchise history. Today, they return home to host a Milwaukee teams whose 7-6 record is highly misleading as they have gone a totally unsustainable 5-0 in one-run games. Great price here on a vastly superior team playing at home. The Brewers, who were quite active in the offseason, are a trendy pick to make the playoffs. I'm not as high on them. After starting the season w/ a three-game sweep of the lowly Padres, they've gone just 4-6 w/ every victory coming by exactly one run. Three times during that stretch they've been shutout. Consider that their -15 run differential is the third worst in all of the National League. Starting tonight for the Brew Crew will be Zach Davies. He did not factor into the decision his last time out, despite allowing only one run on four hits in 6 IP. That performance was a marked improvement over his first start when he surrendered seven runs in 5 2/3 IP. While unbeaten in four career starts vs. the Mets, Davies has a 4.22 ERA. Now the Mets' historically great start has not come w/o some good fortune. They have five come from behind victories already and on Wednesday, they were able to come back after being no-hit for the first six innings. Over the L7 games, they are averaging 5.3 rpg despite a collective batting average of only .214. Still, I mentioned pitching earlier and tonight Steven Matz gets the baseball. He allowed only an unearned run in five innings of work his last time out. Unlike LY, the Mets have a fully healthy starting rotation of Syndergaard, deGrom, Matz, Harvey and Wheeler, which makes them a very legit threat in the Senior Circuit. The bullpen has been very good as well in the early going. Throw in the fact that Milwaukee is not a great team and I'm all over the home favorites in this one. 8* NY Mets |
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04-12-18 | Rockies v. Nationals -174 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -174 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): After starting the season 4-0, the Nationals have dropped six of eight including another home loss yday, this one to Atlanta. They'll stay in the Nation's capital this weekend, welcoming in a Rockies team that just avoided what would have been a very embarrassing sweep, at home to the Padres. They won yday 6-4, but keep in mind that was only the second time in seven games they topped three runs in a game despite only playing Atlanta and San Diego during that time, all but one of the contests coming at Coors Field. I don't see Colorado's offensive woes ending here and at the same time we should see the Nats' bats start to wake up. I like the home team to win big Thursday. It was a 12-inning loss for the Nats yday after they'd tied the game in the bottom of the ninth. That was the second time in the last four games they lost a 12-inning affair. Despite the team's mediocre start to the season, Bryce Harper has come out of the gates swinging, posting a .316 batting average w/ six home runs and 13 runs scored. But perhaps more key to tonight's game is the fact that Gio Gonzalez is starting. Gonzalez has never lost to the Rockies, going 4-0 in five career starts. He has been sharp in the early going of 2018 as he's allowed just 2 ER in 11+ IP. He had to settle for a no-decision his last time out (vs. the Mets), but did have six more strikeouts, bringing his YTD total up to 13. Note that Rockies' hitters have struck out at least 10 times in four of the last five games. While Washington is still favored to win the NL East this season, I expect Colorado to drop down the standings a bit after LY's Wild Card campaign. We know the hitting always dips outside of Coors Field, so considering how anemic they've been in their home park, things don't look too promising for this weekend. Chad Bettis will get the starting nod and while he's got a 2-0 TSR thus far, he's been far from dominant. He walked four batters in his first start and has only 7 K's so far. I just can't see the Nationals losing another home game and this price range seems justifiable. 8* Washington |
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04-12-18 | Cardinals -141 v. Reds | Top | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (6:40 ET): The Cardinals' lack of fortune to start the 2018 season continued yday w/ yet another one-run loss, this one coming by a 3-2 count to Milwaukee. It was their third one-run loss of the season (now 0-3 in such games), all of them coming at the hands of the Brewers. The loss dropped them to 5-7 overall. Of course, while the Redbirds may be a good team experiencing poor luck, Cincinnati is just a plain bad baseball team. They too have three one-run losses after taking another yday, 4-3 at Philadelphia. That was the Reds' fourth straight loss (were swept in Philly), dropping them to 2-9 overall. These two NL Central rivals start a series on Thursday and I like the Cards to take the series opener. In addition to being the better team, they enter w/ a slight edge having wrapped up yday's game in the afternoon while Cincy went to extra innings last night. Somewhat surprisingly, St. Louis struggled w/ Cincinnati last season, going only 10-9 against them. However, they have had no problem beating this particular division rival when Michael Wacha is on the bump and he'll get the baseball this evening at Great American Ballpark. In 16 career appearances vs. the Reds, 14 of them starts, Wacha is 8-1 w/ a 2.85 ERA. He faced them twice last season, both at home, and each time allowed only one run in 6 IP. He finished w/ 11 K's and just two walks. Now Wacha is off to a bit of a slow start this season and was plagued by control issues in his last start (vs. Arizona). But note the Cards still won, beating Zack Greinke, 5-3. St. Louis also swept the Reds in their final visit to Great American Ballpark last season. Timely hitting would likely change the Cardinals fortune in a hurry. While they're batting a collective .235 w/ 114 strikeouts, it's a .209 average w/ RISP that's really killing them. But enter Sal Romano, not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character, who starts today for the home team. Romano is now just 5-9 in his career as a starter w/ a 4.59 ERA after a pretty rocky start to this season. While the team did win his last time out, Romano didn't factor into the decision and has a 5.73 ERA and 1.455 WHIP in two starts. He has only 3 K's in those two starts, an alarmingly low number. The Reds' bullpen also remains as bad as ever. Manager Bryan Price already seems to be on the hot season as the team seems well on its way to another losing season. I'll play against them here. 10* St. Louis |
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04-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -112 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (7:05 ET): Toronto has taken the first two games of this three-game set, holding Baltimore to just one run each time. After rolling to a 7-1 victory Monday, it was a pitcher's duel yday (2-1) w/ the Jays' Aaron Sanchez getting the better of it, even taking a no-hit bid into the eighth innings. Keep in mind though that Toronto didn't score in the first seven innings either. I like the O's to salvage a game tonight though before hitting the road for the next week. It is interesting to note three of Baltimore's four wins have come in extra innings, but they've also taken on a challenging schedule and had only two home series. I expect the offense to wake up here. It's not as if the O's haven't had some chances to get the job done at the plate in this series. But they have gone 2 for 16 w/ runners in scoring position. Now, most of those failed opportunities came in the first game. But, typically this has been a strong offensive club under skipper Buck Showalter. They have struggled in the past against tonight's starter Marco Estrada, who is additionally off to a strong start in 2018. But note Estrada has allowed three home runs so far, so he's susceptible there. Eventually, we're going to see that Orioles offense start to connect, trust me. Toronto is off to an impressive 8-4 start and keep in mind they lost their first two games. But sweeping a division rival, on the road, is hard to do. Even w/ the B2B wins, the Blue Jays still have a losing record here at Camden Yards the L3 seasons. Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman was able to rebound from a terrible first start by allowing just two runs in five innings against the Yankees last time out and the team won 7-3 as +160 ML underdogs. When analyzing the O's record so far, note that their last two series came at Houston and at the Yankees. Gausman has pitched well against this Toronto team in the past, posting a 3.12 ERA in 18 games. The Orioles have always been a good home team through the years (97-70 since the start of '16) and I just don't see them being swept here. 10* Baltimore |