Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-25-22 | Feyenoord +0.25 v. Roma | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -116 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
9* Feyenoord Goal Line (3:00 ET): The inaugural season of the Europa Conference League has a Final of Roma (representing Serie A) vs. Feyenoord (representing the Dutch Eredivisie). Neither came close to winning their respective domestic leagues this season as Roma was sixth (23 points off the pace) while Feyenoord was third (12 points off). Serie A is rightfully considered the stronger league and thus Roma is unsurprisingly the favorite for this fixture. I did play Jose Mourinho’s side (Roma) in the semis (as a Game of the Year) when they defeated Leicester City 1-0. But Feyenoord has been the better side throughout this particular competition and thus is worth the play on the goal line Wednesday. Feyenoord has gone undefeated in the Europa Conference League, scoring 28 goals in the process. Remember that by playing them this way (on the goal line), all we need is Feyenoord to be even at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. A win would not surprise me considering how dominant the contingent from Rotterdam has been. They were unbeaten across their last 11 competitions before taking a meaningless loss in the Eredivisie finale. The Europa Conference League’s leading scorer is in Feyenoord’s ranks as Cyriel Dessers has tallied 10 goals. I think the big key here is Feyenoord’s attack, which is a stark contrast to the Roma approach under Mourinho. Serie A wasn’t particularly impressive in European football this season with no Italian club making the quarterfinals of the Champions League and only one making the quarterfinals of the Europa League. Roma did win for me in the Serie A finale, 3-0 over Torino, but before that they hadn’t prevailed in any of their previous five league games. Feyenoord scored three times in the first leg of its semifinal vs. Marseille and was pretty close to Ajax in xG this season in the Eredivisie. 9* Feyenoord (Goal Line) |
|||||||
05-22-22 | Manchester United v. Crystal Palace +0.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace Goal Line (11:00 AM ET): While most will be focused on the race for the Premier League Title (Man City or Liverpool), the race for the fourth Champions League spot (Tottenham or Arsenal), or the relegation battle (Burnley or Leeds), there is one other race to be settled in the EPL on Sunday. It is to determine who finishes sixth and joins either Tottenham or Arsenal (likely the latter) in the Europa League. The “contestants” are Manchester United, in action here, and West Ham. Man U enters the final matchday with a two point lead over the Hammers, but likely needs more than a draw here based on their inferior goal differential. I’m not convinced they get it. Crystal Palace has been one of the EPL’s more underrated sides this campaign. The Eagles may only sit 13th in the table, but they actually have a better GD than Manchester United. Not only do they sit seventh in the league in GD, they are sixth in expected points! Quite frankly, Palace has played better football this season than has United, especially of late. While the Eagles did just blow a 2-0 lead Thursday at a highly motivated Everton side (who was looking to secure safety from relegation), they had previously gone unbeaten in their prior four matches. Palace could finish as high as 10th with a win here, which would be their highest Premier League finish in some time. Remember that they made it all the way to the FA Cup semis as well. Manchester United hasn’t played in almost two weeks, when it suffered arguably its most humiliating defeat of the season, 4-0 at the hands of Brighton & Hove Albion. Honestly, it’s difficult to make the case that the Red Devils are deserving of the Europa League. They will finish with their worst ever point total in a Premier League season. No matter what happens Sunday, all will not be lost as they’ll still end up in the Europa Conference League if West Ham does end up jumping them in the table. Playing for a lame duck manager, I can just not see United doing better than a draw in this circumstance. Palace has been the better side and is deserving of a Top 10 finish. Play the underdog on the Goal Line. 10* Crystal Palace (Goal Line) |
|||||||
05-19-22 | Hamburger SV +0.5 v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* Hamburger SV Goal Line (2:30 ET): This is the relegation playoff in the Bundesliga. For those that are unfamiliar, here’s how it works. The team that finished with the third worst record in the top flight (in this case, Hertha Berlin) faces the third place finisher in the 2. Bundesliga (Hamburger SV). There are two legs (matches) played with each side hosting one. After both legs are complete, whomever is ahead on aggregate score will be in the top flight next season. Note that I’m playing the goal line here, feeling that the underdog (Hamburger) will do no worse than a draw. Typically, when you have a team from the top flight taking on a team from the second tier, you’d expect the former to have a significant edge. But I don’t think any such edge exists here. Hertha Berlin finished with the second worst goal differential in the Bundesliga this season, ahead of only last place Greuther Furth. Meanwhile, not only did Hamburger finish with the best GD down in the 2, they also made it all the way to the semifinals of DFB Pokal, the second most prestigious club title in all of Germany. So this side is battle-tested. They won their last five league games by an aggregate score of 16-5. After three straight years of finishing fourth down in the 2, Hamburger is ready to earn itself a promotion and will be all about this opportunity. Now when looking at the statistics, you must obviously factor in the level of competition. Only once in the last nine years has the team from the 2 won the Bundesliga Relegation Playoff. But Hamburger did defeat one top flight team (FC Koln) during their run in the DFB Pokal. Something else that must be considered is the way Hertha landed in this spot. It looked as if they would avoid the Relegation Playoff and claim safety, but Stuttgart getting a late goal (92nd minute) vs. Koln moved them ahead in the table. This is just a brutal spot for Hertha as up to nine first-teamers may miss this match, including the goaltender! Back the Red Shorts! 10* Hamburger SV (Goal Line) |
|||||||
05-15-22 | Atalanta +0.75 v. AC Milan | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -111 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
10* Atalanta Goal Line (12:00 ET): There are implications for both sides in this matchup of traditional Serie A powers on Sunday. Obviously, AC Milan is looking to extend its lead (currently just two points) over Inter in the race for the Scudetto (league championship). Atalanta (currently) eighth is just trying to get in the mix for European football next season, something they have been a part of each of the last five seasons. I see the underdogs escaping with at least a point in this critical match. Just to be safe, play them on the goal line. Though they are tied with both Roma and Fiorentina for the sixth most points in Serie A (59), Atalanta has a negative head to head record vs. both of those European contenders, so right now they are on the outside looking in when it comes to continental football next season. With both Roma and Fiorentina taking on bottom of the table sides this weekend, picking up points here is a must for La Dea, who has the 5th best goal differential in the league right now (+20). I’m a little perplexed as to how they find themselves down in eighth place. They have 20 different goal scorers this season (most in Serie A) and have picked up the third most away points. I won with them last week as they easily beat Spezia by a final score of 3-1. Though in control for their first Scudetto in 11 years, AC Milan is actually just third in the league in both goal difference and xPts (expected points), so they should feel a little bit fortunate to be at the top of the table. They’ve won four straight Serie A matches, though one could argue they’ve been a little lucky to win all of the last three. They conceded the first goal of the match against both Lazio and Verona and against the former didn’t take the lead until stoppage time. Two weeks ago vs. Fiorentina, the lone goal of the match did not come until the 82nd minute. These are great odds on Atalanta here. 10* Atalanta (Goal Line) |
|||||||
05-14-22 | VfL Bochum v. Union Berlin -1.25 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -56 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin Goal Line (9:30 AM ET): It’s all in front of Union on the final matchday of the Bundesliga season. A win here would guarantee the Iron Ones a spot in next year’s Europa League and possibly their highest finish ever in the German top flight. It has been a breakout campaign for this side in 2021/22. Union comes into Saturday sixth in the table, only one point behind Freiburg and three behind fourth place Leipzig. Because of goal differential, Union has no chance of overtaking Leipzig for the fourth Champions League spot, but they’ll want to leave nothing to chance here as 7th place Koln sits just two points back with a relatively similar GD. I think Union will show no mercy on their opponents, who have no reason to be motivated for this fixture. Union is unbeaten over its last six Bundesliga matches. Ironically, the only one they didn’t win was against Greuther Furth, who sits at the bottom of the table, ready to be relegated. After that disappointing 1-1 draw, the Iron Ones stormed back to destroy Freiburg 4-1 last week, a massive result for both sides. Now if Freiburg fails to win this week at Leverkusen, Union can jump them into fifth with a win. I’m confident here that the favorite can win this one by multiple goals. A big reason for that confidence, as alluded to earlier, is that Bochum has absolutely NOTHING on the line here in this final matchday. Promoted back into the top flight this season, Bochum’s only goal was survival and they achieved that rather easily in what will be a mid-table finish. Bochum is coming off B2B victories, a 4-3 shocker over Dortmund (won on a late penalty after the equalizer came four minutes earlier), then an undeserved 2-1 result last week over relegation threatened Arminia Bielefeld on an 89th minute “own goal.” Their hosts on Saturday, with much to play for, will show no mercy and win by multiple goals. 10* Union Berlin (Goal Line) |
|||||||
05-10-22 | Liverpool v. Aston Villa +1.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 50 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
7* Aston Villa Goal Line (3:00 ET): First off, please note I’m taking Aston Villa on the goal line. So a win by them, a draw or 1-goal loss would all equal a winning ticket! Liverpool’s chances of winning the Premier League title took a serious hit last week when they ended up sharing the points with Tottenham (1-1 draw) and Man City thrashed Newcastle 5-0. Those results leave the Reds three points back in the chase for the EPL title. So a win here would bring them level, although Man City still has a match in hand. Keep in mind though that this is a busy time for Liverpool as they seek to become the first English side EVER to win a “quadruple” (EPL, Carabao Cup, FA Cup, Champions League). They’ve already bagged the Carabao Cup, but sweeping the other three pieces of hardware now looks exceedingly tough. Man City no longer is involved in the Champions League, so their full attention is on the EPL. Liverpool’s opponent in the UCL Final, Real Madrid, has the La Liga title all wrapped up and thus can turn its full attention to being champions of Europe. On top of that, Liverpool must face Chelsea this weekend in the FA Cup final. All things considered, I just can’t see the Reds winning today (on the road) by more than one goal. Aston Villa enters Tuesday’s fixture on a three-match unbeaten streak, including B2B wins over Norwich City and Burnley. Those are obviously bottom of the table sides, but let us not forget what happened the last time the Lions hosted Liverpool in league play. It was a 7-2 thrashing by them! Now Liverpool has since avenged that defeat with three wins over Villa, but it’s fair to question the motivation and tactics of Jurgen Klopp’s side today. Aston Villa still has hopes of a top half finish this season and like I said earlier, they’ll keep this one within a goal (at worst). 7* Aston Villa (Goal Line) |
|||||||
05-05-22 | West Ham United v. Eintracht Frankfurt | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* West Ham +0.0 (3:00 ET): Neither of these two sides has any chance at gaining entry into next season’s Champions League through their respective leagues. West Ham currently sits seventh in the Premier League table, 11 points adrift of Arsenal, who just beat the Hammers 2-1 on Sunday (a win on the end as well!) Eintracht Frankfurt sits 11th in the Bundesliga and it’s a mathematical impossibility for them to finish top four. So winning the Europa League (which sends you to the UCL next season) now has an added importance for both clubs. Eintracht Frankfurt won the first leg, 2-1 in London, giving them a surprising one-goal edge going into the second leg. What’s a little fascinating about Frankfurt’s run to the Europa League semis, which has seen them oust Real Betis and Barcelona in the knockout stages, is that they haven’t won a single Bundesliga match going back to March 13th! They were just shut out 2-0 by Leverkusen on Monday and I don’t think the short turnaround does them any favors for this second leg. Monday marked the fourth time since March 20th that Frankfurt was held goalless on the domestic front. They’ve also gone six straight matches without picking up a win here at home. So West Ham absolutely has a chance to erase this one goal deficit on Thursday. I’m taking them here on the “draw no bet line” just to be safe, but I expect them to win here. To be clear, all we need for this bet to cash is the Hammers to be winning the match at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. If they are up by only a goal, there will be added time to decide who moves onto the Final, but that will be no concern of ours. The Hammers are pretty clearly the better side in this fixture. Given the season they have had in the Bundesliga, it would be quite the shock if Frankfurt was playing any European football next season. 10* West Ham (Draw No Bet) |
|||||||
04-30-22 | FC Koln v. FC Augsburg | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
9* FC Koln (9:30 AM ET): Augsburg is somewhat fortunate to be safe from relegation from the moment, considering they are third from the bottom in expected points (xPts) and have an expected goal differential of -22.34 (actual GD is -11). Last week’s 2-0 win over Bochum moved Augsburg seven points clear of the relegation playoff, so they’re in good shape with just three fixtures left in the Bundesliga season and one of them against last place Greuther Furth. But their current position also sets them up for a nice fade this week as they face FC Koln, who is still in contention for the Europa Conference League entering matchweek 32. Quite frankly, Koln may have even bigger European dreams than the Europa Conference league right now. They are still only five points back of the top four in the Bundesliga and a win here *could* move them into fifth in the table, although that depends on FC Union Berlin’s result Friday (not complete as of this writing) and what Freiburg does (vs. Hoffenheim) later on Saturday. But there’s no sense relying on those sides not to pick up points if you’re Koln. Playing any kind of European football next season would be a bit of a dream come true for Koln, considering they were in the relegation playoff at the end of last season. Koln won last week, 3-1 over Arminia Bielefeld, which was their third straight win. They’ve scored three times in all three wins and now face an Augsburg side which has the second highest xGA (expected goals allowed) in the league this season. (Only Bielefeld is worse). There’s definitely some defensive regression in store for Augsburg down the stretch as they’ve conceded 11 goals fewer than expected this season, the third highest “overachievement” in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues. This is a great spot to fade Augsburg. 9* FC Koln (Goal Line - Draw No Bet) |
|||||||
04-30-22 | Verona v. Cagliari | Top | 2-1 | Win | 107 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
10* Hellas Verona (9:00 AM ET): There were some favorable midweek results for Verona with Fiorentina losing 4-0 to Udinese and Atalanta drawing Torino. That means Verona’s faint hopes of playing European football next season are still alive, though in eighth place and six points back of Atalanta, it will require one heck of a finish to get there. This week’s fixture vs. struggling Cagliari is basically a must win for the visitors, who could use the three points regardless, just to ensure a top half finish in Serie A. Considering Cagliari’s poor form as of late, I expect Verona to get the win here and think they are a great value on the goal line (where a draw = no bet). Cagliari is fighting for its life right now as they are only three points ahead of suddenly surging Salernitana and Genoa in the race to avoid relegation. The remaining fixtures seem favorable as Rossoblu will face two of the sides (Salernitana, Venezia) currently in the relegation zone. But this looks to be a bad matchup as Verona is a good pressing team, something Cagliari struggles with mightily and the Rossoblu are also in line for some defensive regression as they are third from the bottom in Serie A in xGA (expected goals allowed). Verona’s matches have been much more high scoring compared to last season, which was inevitable. That said, they’ve notched more than one goal just one time in their last seven. This is where they should find the back of the net a few times, however, for the reasons mentioned above. After recording an impressive 2-1 victory over Atalanta two weeks ago, Verona had to settle for a 1-1 draw with Sampdoria last week. But most metrics (possession, shots, xG) say they should have won that fixture. With just one win in their last seven, the metrics aren’t saying many positive things about Cagliari right now and I expect them to lose Saturday. 10* Hellas Verona (Goal Line - Draw No Bet) |
|||||||
04-27-22 | Villarreal +1.5 v. Liverpool | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
10* Villarreal +1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool is obviously playing as well as any side in the entire world right now as they’ve won 12 straight here in Anfield and 14 of 15 overall. But it was a bit of a struggle Sunday against relegation-threatened Everton, despite the match ending up as a 2-0 final. The Reds were tied 0-0 until the 62 minute and now face their fourth fixture in the last 11 days and it’s a big one against Villarreal, the “surprise” semi finalist of the Champions League. The Yellow Submarine are fresh off a shocking upset of Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and must be taken seriously in this tie. I’ll go with them on the goal line in the first leg, thinking they can easily keep this one within a one-goal margin. Villarreal may only currently be seventh in La Liga, but don’t let that fool you. They have the third best YTD goal differential in the Spanish top flight and won last year’s Europa League. Unlike the other three semifinalists though, there is no clear path back into next season’s Champions League for the Yellow Submarine. They won’t make the top four in La Liga, so all their focus is on this fixture whereas Liverpool must also stay concerned with its ongoing battle for the top spot in the Premier League, not to mention the FA Cup Final against Chelsea in a couple weeks. Already in the knockout stage, Villarreal has toppled two heavyweights, Juventus and Bayern. This is their biggest mountain to climb, but they should be up for the challenge. Only once since the start of December have the Yellow Submarine been beaten by more than one goal. Liverpool did concede four times in the quarterfinals to Benefica, a much lesser side. While Gerard Moreno is out for Villarreal, the schedule sets up quite nicely for them here as they were off last weekend and haven’t been on the pitch in over a week. They’re also unbeaten in five straight competitions, having scored in all of them. 10* Villarreal Goal Line (+1.5) |
|||||||
04-19-22 | Manchester United v. Liverpool -1.25 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
8* Liverpool -1.5 (3:00 ET): Liverpool fans are now dreaming of an elusive “quadruple” as the club has already bagged the Carabao Cup this season and finds itself in position to pick up three more pieces of hardware over the next month. Over the last week, the Reds booked their place in the Champions League semifinals and the FA Cup Final, the latter coming by way of 3-2 win over Manchester City. In the Premier League, Liverpool still trails Man City (they played to a 2-2 draw in league action two weeks ago), but only by a single point. So a win today would move the Reds to the top of the table, albeit maybe just for the time being (Man City faces Brighton tomorrow). Now, looking at the odds, a Liverpool win doesn’t seem to be in question for today. They have not lost a single Premier League match here at Anfield this season (12-3-0), turning in a phenomenal +32 goal differential in the process. They’ve won 10 straight here and come into today’s fixture having scored 2+ goals in each of their last five competitions. So considering the available options, I’m going with the goal line here as this should be a multi-goal victory for the home side. When they faced Man U at Old Trafford earlier this season, it was a 5-0 demolition. That’s part of a disturbing trend for United, who has not fared well against the top EPL sides this season. Against the top three this season, they’ve been outscored 12-2 and the xG (expected goal) difference isn’t far off. The highest amount of possession Man U held in any of those three losses was 37% (in the 5-0 loss to Liverpool, ironically). United comes in fifth in the table, three points behind Tottenham, but considering they could barely beat last place Norwich City last week (needed a Cristiano Ronaldo hat trick), it’s difficult to like their chances here. Before LW, they’d scored only one goal across three fixtures. 8* Liverpool -1.5 (Goal Line) |
|||||||
04-17-22 | Leicester +0.5 v. Newcastle United | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -138 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
8* Leicester City (9:15 AM ET): Taking Leicester City on the goal line here, so all we would need is a draw to cash a winning ticket. That doesn’t seem like a “big ask” considering the side they are facing, Newcastle United, has spent the bulk of the year near the bottom of the table. Though the Magpies have recently seen an uptick in performance, and thus are likely to avoid relegation, they are still sitting in 15th place. Only three sides in the league (as of Saturday) are worse off in terms of goal differential and only two are lower in xPts (expected points). I really like only needing a draw in this fixture. Though the 2021/22 season has seen Leicester slip a bit, down to ninth in the table (they finished fifth last season), the Foxes have improved their own form recently by going unbeaten in their last five across all competitions. Most recently they progressed to the semis of the Europa Conference League, defeating PSV Eindhoven 2-1 on their own turf. That was midweek (Thursday), so the Foxes are at a bit of a disadvantage schedule-wise, but I still think they’re being undervalued in this spot. Last time in the league, Leicester defeated Crystal Palace (who is in the semis of the FA Cup) 2-1. Leicester is also the last team to defeat suddenly surging Brentford and they drew Manchester United earlier this month as well. The return of Johnny Evans to the starting XI has helped defensively. As for Newcastle, they’ve been overachieving since the transfer window closed, both on GD and xPts. It was a 4-0 thrashing at King Power (in favor of Leicester) when these teams met in the reverse back in December. Leicester is still gunning for a top half finish. That and the Europa Conference League will keep their motivation high down the stretch. Newcastle’s goal of avoiding relegation has been achieved and they’ve failed to score more than one goal in any of the L4 matches. 8* Leicester City |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Torino +1 v. Lazio | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
10* Torino +1 (2:45 ET): Playing Torino on the goal line this week as they have turned it around the last two weeks, not conceding a single goal. Last time I took them was a 1-0 win over last place Salernitana, which may not sound all that impressive, but sharing the points with Serie A leaders AC Milan last week in a goalless draw certainly was. Over its last five matches, Torino has now conceded only two goals and they’ve shared the points not just with this year’s league leaders but also the reigning Scudetto holders. I’m willing to bet that they can at least share the points with Lazio on Saturday. No team in all of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has overperformed its xG (expected goal) total more than Lazio. They have scored 64 times in Serie A matches this season, second most to Inter, but have an xG total of just 47.76. To put that discrepancy into its proper perspective, only Verona has exceeded its xG total by more than seven. The overperformance continued last week with four goals against 19th place Genoa when the xG total was just 2.16. Eventually, Lazio is going to have a match where it underperforms offensively. I think this is the fixture where that happens. Now Lazio certainly has much to play for here as they are sixth in the table and seven points back of the top four. But a Torino side that has a top five defensive mark in the league is a bad matchup and these clubs shared the points in a 1-1 draw back in September. It even took a late penalty, in stoppage time, for Lazio to earn the draw. I just can’t see the favorite winning by two goals here, so the goal line is the way to go in this one. 10* Torino |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Rayo Vallecano v. Alavés | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rayo Vallecano (10:15 AM ET): Rayo has managed to share the points in three of its last four matches, including Monday’s 1-1 draw with Valencia. But they have actually not won in the league since December and that 12 match winless run (eight losses, four draws) has left them only six points clear of safety heading into this weekend. But Rayo seems to have the perfect opponent to snap their winless streak, that being an Alaves side that is not only last in the La Liga table, but also the last time Rayo defeated. Take the away team on the “draw no bet” line, even though I expect them to get the full three points here. Rayo has been fairly unlucky down the stretch, especially two weeks ago when it had to settle for a 2-2 draw with Granada after jumping out to an early 2-0 lead. That match swung on a red card in the 51st minute and Granada got the equalizer in stoppage time on a controversial penalty. Last week against Valencia, it was Rayo that got the late equalizer, but they also won the possession battle and had more shots than Valencia. During the winless streak, Rayo has 12.84 xPts so they are incredibly unlucky to have taken only four. As for Alaves, there’s really nothing unlucky about their current last place standing. El Glorioso now has the worst goal differential in the league (-29) and most losses (19). They’ve lost four in a row and are winless over the last seven fixtures. No La Liga side has scored fewer goals this season than Alaves’ 24 and they’ve been outscored 9-3 over the four-game losing streak. Rayo dominated the first meeting, winning 2-0, and should do the same again here. 10* Rayo Vallecano (Draw No Bet Line) |
|||||||
04-16-22 | Brentford v. Watford | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET): Brentford is an “in-form” side right now, having won four of its last five matches. This run has all but guaranteed that the Bees will be back in the English top flight next season, which is well deserved as this club is actually 7th in xPts (expected points) in the entire Premier League. Unfortunately, I can’t say the same for Watford, another side that was promoted before the start of this season. The Hornets currently sit 19th in the table and are six points clear of safety following last week’s results. So I’ll gladly take Brentford on the “draw no bet line” Saturday. Each of the L2 weeks have seen Brentford take down a top six side in the Premier League table. Who could forget what they did to Chelsea two weeks ago, scoring four times at Stamford Bridge? Then, last week I played them this same way (draw = no bet) against West Ham and the Bees walked away 2-0 winners at home. Now 12 points clear of the drop zone, Brentford can move past Aston Villa, Brighton & Crystal Palace with a win here and into 10th place. As for Watford, they have not won here at Vicarage Road since November (lost 9 in a row!), conceding 25 times during that particular losing streak. Only last place Norwich City and Leeds Unitied have conceded more goals this season and Watford’s three clean sheets are the fewest in the whole league. In the reverse fixture, Brentford dominated far more than the 2-1 final suggests and now that they’re in even better form, it should be an easy three points. 10* Brentford (Draw No Bet Line) |
|||||||
04-12-22 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (3:00 ET): Chelsea, the reigning UCL Champs, finds itself in a large hole as they trail Real Madrid 3-1 after the first leg. Now, the Blues have certainly proven themselves to be resilient in the past. Case in point; after shipping a stunning seven goals in B2B losses (Real Madrid, Brentford), they came back to smoke Southampton 6-0 in the Premier League over the weekend. While I would not be confident in Chelsea repeating that kind of result on Tuesday, I do like them to at least win at Real Madrid. Take the visitors on the “draw - no bet line.” To progress in this competition, Chelsea must erase the two-goal disadvantage from the first leg. That’s going to be extremely hard to do here at the Spanish capital, but winning by a goal is not as tall an order. They have failed to score in only one of the last 15 Champions League matches as the away team. The 6-0 win over Southampton was also the Blues’ seventh in a row away from Stamford Bridge. The number of goals conceded in those B2B losses to Brentford and Real Madrid were highly uncharacteristic for Thomas Tuchel’s club. Though Real Madrid won the first leg 3-1, the xG (expected goal difference) was only +0.7, so the match was closer than the final score suggests. Chelsea had the edge in both shots (20-8) and touches in the penalty area (24-8). Los Blancos will be without Eder Militao for the second leg as he’s suspended for picking up a second yellow card. That’s a significant loss for the home side. Can Karim Benzema really keep carrying them the way he has? Remember that Madrid were recently thumped (4-0) by Barcelona in La Liga and also needed a huge comeback of their own to oust PSG in the Round of 16 of this competition. 10* Chelsea |
|||||||
04-10-22 | West Ham United v. Brentford | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
10* Brentford (9:00 AM ET): What a performance from Brentford last week as the Bees put FOUR goals on the board against Chelsea in a stunning win. Not only was it a huge win over a top three EPL side, but it moved the Bees further away from the relegation zone, nine points clear, and up into 14th place. Really, this side “deserves” to be even higher in the table. They are a shocking eighth in xPts (expected points) coming into the weekend, quite impressive for a club in its first year back in the top flight. It’s another chance to shock one of the top teams on Sunday and I will play Brentford on the “draw - no bet line.” West Ham currently sits sixth in the table, only three points back of the top four. But what has the Hammers at a slight disadvantage is the fact that everyone else in the top seven has at least a match in hand. I don’t think the spot for the Hammers this week either; they are coming off a 1-1 draw in the Europa League quarterfinals on Thursday (vs. Lyon) and their away form has been poor since the new year. They’ve lost each of their last four away matches (across all competitions) and have not won a Premier League away match since Opening Day! They lost at home earlier in the season to Brentford, 2-1, at London Stadium as well. Truth be told, West Ham was lucky to escape with a draw midweek as they played with just 10 men the entire second half. Of course, that was after taking advantage of a red card last week against Everton. Also remember that the Hammers have the second leg vs. Lyon looming this week, so Brentford may not have their full attention. That could very well lead to disaster considering Brentford has now won three of four with 10 goals scored in league play. Brentford always plays better at home and they are healthier than they’ve been in a while. Look for them to capture all three points Sunday. 10* Brentford - Draw No Bet |
|||||||
04-10-22 | Crystal Palace +0.5 v. Leicester | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -150 | 41 h 7 m | Show |
8* Crystal Palace Goal Line (9:00 AM ET): Crystal Palace still has a lot to play for: a top half finish in the Premier League and they are in the semifinals of the FA Cup. A win in the FA Cup (no small task as the other three sides remaining are Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea) would guarantee European football next season. Regardless if they can win that competition, the Eagles are probably deserving of a top half finish in the league front. They enter the weekend 9th in xPts and at +4, aren’t all that fair off from the teams chasing the European places in the table. It’s been nearly a month since I last took CP; the day they earned points against Man City in a 0-0 draw. I’ll take them here on the goal line. It’s been a remarkable run of form lately for Crystal Palace as they haven’t conceded a single goal in any of their last four matches. That includes the aforementioned 0-0 draw against Man City and also three wins (over Wolverhampton, Everton and Arsenal). Last week’s 3-0 demolition of top four chasers Arsenal was as impressive as it gets. The Eagles are now unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions with five wins. So you can see why the goal line is such an attractive option here. It was a 2-2 draw when they faced Leicester City earlier this season. These two sides are actually level with 37 points, but while CP has four more goals than what they’ve conceded, Leicester is just the opposite, having shipped four more than they’ve scored. It’s also a tough spot here for Leicester, coming off a goalless draw midweek in the Europa Conference League (with PSV), which is their main concern right now. The Foxes have now won just once in their last five competitions as they drew with Man U (1-1) in the league last week. European fatigue could be very real here for the Foxes. 8* Crystal Palace Goal Line |
|||||||
04-09-22 | Union Berlin v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
10* Union Berlin (12:30 ET): There are very different goals for the two sides in the Berlin derby this Saturday. FC Union Berlin currently sits seventh in the Bundesliga table, as it’s been a very good 2021/22 season, and they are only three points adrift of Europa League qualifying for next season. They are also still alive in the DFB-Pokal, so FCUB fans have to be feeling like their chances of European football next season are strong. There’s a lot to play for over the next two months and the club came out of the international break by picking up a huge 1-0 win over Koln last weekend. Union now is FIFTH in xPts (expected points), so they are a worthy European challenger despite a -4 YTD goal differential. As for Hertha, they are simply struggling to survive in the German top flight. Entering Saturday, they sit 17th in the table (based on GD with Arminia Bielefeld), which would mean automatic relegation to the Bundesliga 2 for next season. Only Greuther Furth has a worse YTD goal differential than Hertha’s -33. Recent form suggests relegation is a very real possibility for this once proud side, which is already on its third manager of the season! The “new manager bounce” did result in a shocking 3-0 win over Hoffenheim right before the international break, however that is Hertha’s only points earned over its L7 matches. In each of the six losses, they have conceded multiple goals. Because Union Berlin only returned to the top flight in 2019, this derby has been played infrequently; just nine times since 1963! But Union will be gunning to make it THREE wins over their capital rivals this season as they beat them 2-0 in the reverse back in November, scoring both goals in the opening 30 minutes. Then, more recently, came a 3-2 win in the DFB-Pokal quarterfinals. Don’t think for a second that Union isn’t relishing the opportunity to pull an ultra-rare triple over Hertha and possibly knock them out of the Bundesliga for next season. Union possesses several matchup advantages in this fixture, so I will take them on the “draw-no bet line” (meaning a draw would count as a “push” not a loss. I expect Union to get all three points though. 10* Union Berlin - Draw No Bet |
|||||||
04-08-22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers +0.5 v. Newcastle United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -140 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
8* Wolverhampton Goal Line (3:00 ET): The Wolves are very much in the mix for European football next season as - coming off a 2-1 home success over Aston Villa last time out - they sit just five points back of fourth (Champions League) and only two points back of sixth (Europa League). So a win here would move them into sixth position, ahead of both West Ham and Manchester United, although those two sides would have one and two matches in hand respectively. While I think a top four finish is stretching it, the Wolves will certainly be motivated here and I like them to claim at least a point against slumping Newcastle United on Friday. To be clear, by playing the goal line here, all we need is a draw from the Wolves to have ourselves a winning bet. Now I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Wolves get the win and claim all three points either. They won the reverse fixture 2-1 at Molineux back in October. However, the previous five encounters between these two sides in Premier League action all ended with the same 1-1 scoreline. I’ll take that here. Another key is the Wolves have the fourth best away record in the EPL this season. Only Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have been better on their travels. Newcastle did win six of their seven Premier League matches from Jan 22 to March 10, likely saving them from relegation, but recently the Magpies have hit the skids with three consecutive defeats. They conceded five times last week to Tottenham and have the fourth worst defensive record in the league. Meanwhile, the Wolves have conceded the fourth fewest goals this term. Therefore, it certainly doesn’t help that Newcastle’s leading scorer Callum Wilson is out injured. I’ve said before that Wolverhampton is a bit fortunate to be so high in the table, but they are being drastically underrated in this spot against a side that is still 18th in the league in xPts (expected points). 8* Wolverhampton Goal Line |
|||||||
04-03-22 | Mainz +0.5 v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
10* Mainz +0.5 (11:30 AM ET): These two Bundesliga sides are separated by only four points and two spots in the table. But goal differential (don’t we always go back to that?) says the gap should be a lot wider. Mainz, who doesn’t usually find themselves in the top half of the table, still has a chance at a top six finish which would have them playing European football next season. They have two matches in hand compared to everyone above them and as long as they can pick up points in each of the next two fixtures (this one and Weds vs. Augsburg), they’ll be in good shape. I don’t see Mainz doing any worse than a draw on Sunday and thus will play them +0.5 on the goal line. Back to goal differential, Mainz is actually +9 this season, which is sixth best in the entire Bundesliga! Despite having played two fewer matches than almost everybody in the league, they are seventh in xPts. Now compare that to Borussia Monchengladbach, who has a -13 GD in what has been a down year for them. While there has been a bit of a recent resurgence for Gladbach, winning two in a row, they still are only seven points clear of automatic relegation. Also, the two sides that Gladbach recently beat - Hertha Berlin and Bochum - are both in the bottom half of the table. Before the Int’l Break, Mainz ran out to a 4-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld, which was much needed following losses to Union Berlin and Dortmund. But they’d also previously beaten top three Leverkusen. I’m just very surprised at the pricing on this matchup as Mainz is the better side and seemingly has an edge when it comes to pressing against Gladbach’s poor transition defense. Also, Mainz has conceded the second fewest number of goals in the league this season. Gladbach is tied for third MOST conceded and over its L15 matches has only held two sides (Bielefeld & Hertha) under 1.0 xG. Again, betting the goal line means that all we need is a draw here. I think Mainz is likely to win. 10* Mainz +0.5 |
|||||||
04-02-22 | RB Leipzig v. Borussia Dortmund | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
8* RB Leipzig +0.0 (12:30 PM ET): This is a top four clash in the Bundesliga with the two sides separated by 12 points, but a lot closer on goal differential. I think Borussia Dortmund should feel extremely fortunate to be only six points behind first place Bayern Munich. BVB has greatly overperformed its xG total this season, mostly thanks to Erling Haaland, but he’s now listed as doubtful for Saturday after sustaining an injury in Norway’s international friendly against Armenia. That’s a big blow when facing a side like Leipzig, who has lost only once in 2022 (to Bayern Munich) and is unbeaten in its last nine matches. Leipzig may be in a tight three-way battle for fourth right now (with Freiburg and Hoffenheim), but they are a deserved top four side in my opinion, based on the similar GD to Dortmund and third place Leverkusen. Leipzig was actually first in the league last season in xPts (yes, ahead of Bayern!) and this season, they are second in that regard, just ahead of Dortmund. While they haven’t matched BVB in goal scoring this season, I think it’s just as important to note they’ve conceded eight fewer times. Also, since the turn of the year, no Bundesliga side has picked up more points than Leipzig has (23). Even if Haaland does play here, I don’t see Leipzig doing any worse than a draw. They deserved better than a 0-0 draw against Eintracht Frankfurt two weeks ago. There have been multiple frustrating draws for this team, which is why they’re not firmly in the top four, but I can certainly see Leipzig winning here as they’ve been the better side compared to Dortmund over the last few months. Even with Haaland on the pitch, BVB has scored only four times in the last four fixtures. Leipzig beat Dortmund 2-1 back in November and this is a huge fixture for them to get points. 8* RB Leipzig (DRAW = NO BET) |
|||||||
03-16-22 | Villarreal +0.5 v. Juventus | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
9* Villarreal (4:00 ET): I’m a little surprised at how the tide has seemingly “turned” against Villarreal, one of the hottest sides in all of Europe, following their 1-1 draw with Juventus in the first leg of this Round of 16 Champions League battle. Yes, it was terribly disappointing not to get the win on home soil. But I thought the Yellow Submarine looked like the better side in that match, winning both the possession and xG battles. They conceded a goal just thirty seconds in, but after that were the better team the rest of the way. So I am taking them +0.5 on the goal line in the second leg. (Must be at least even after 90 mins + stoppage time). Since Dec 10, when the UCL Group State ended, Villarreal has been averaging 1.95 xG per match while allowing just 0.93. That is very impressive. While still only seventh in the La Liga table, the Yellow Submarine have the third best GD in that league and should be higher. Looking at their current position on the domestic front, there’s probably a greater importance of winning this tournament, compared to the other remaining sides as there is far less of a guarantee that they will be returning next season. Juventus has moved up to fourth place in Serie A after what was a shaky start to the season. But their underlying metrics (in a weaker league) are not as strong as Villarreal’s. I know they are unbeaten in their last 12 fixtures across all competitions and have not lost at home in 2022. But It would not all surprise me to see Villarreal pull off the “upset” here, or like I said, at the very least be even at the end of stoppage time. Take the +0.5 on the goal line in this one. 9* Villarreal |
|||||||
03-16-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Mainz +0.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
9* Mainz 05 (1:30 ET): For the first time in nearly a month, Mainz will step back onto the pitch, looking to further its chase for the European places in the Bundesliga. We last saw this side back on Feb 26, losing at Union Berlin by a score of 3-1. With all that has unfolded since, Mainz now finds itself 10th in the table, which is higher than usual but also disappointing given that they have a better YTD goal differential than the four teams directly ahead of them. At home and rested, I think they do no worse than a draw on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund is still somehow within striking distance of first place Bayern Munich, only seven points shy of the summit. I feel that Bayern should be running away with another Bundesliga title (would be their 10th straight), but recent struggles from the table leaders have caused this race to stay interesting. Dortmund is unbeaten in its last four competitions, including a 1-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld last week. But, at what point does the transfer talk surrounding Erling Haaland (rumored to be headed to Man City) begin to affect the club? I think soon! Mainz has only lost once on home soil this entire season, fewest in the entire Bundesliga. So that’s a key advantage coming into Wednesday’s fixture. Also, I really feel they ought to be higher in the table. Between this and Saturday’s date with Bielefeld, they’ve got an excellent shot at making up points this week. Obviously, they’re well-rested. Finally, you’ve got the fact that Dortmund has been a massive overachiever when it comes to goal scoring this season. They are +14.53 over their xG total. 9* Mainz 05 |
|||||||
03-14-22 | Manchester City v. Crystal Palace +1.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace +1.5 (4:00 ET): Note that I’m playing the goal line (+1.5) in this fixture, so a Crystal Palace win, draw or even loss by one goal means we’re winners. Now fading Man City in this spot may seem a bit “risky,” but this will be the Citizens fourth match already in March, across three different competitions. Having already progressed in both the FA Cup and Champions League, the Premier League leaders also turned in an impressive 4-1 thrashing of rivals Manchester United last week. I think that there’s GOT to be some sort of letdown in store for them and CP has proven itself to be a “tough out” on home soil. Crystal Palace currently finds itself 11th in the table, with 33 points, however the Eagles should probably be higher given that they are eighth in the league in xPts. CP comes in on a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions, including their own advancement in the FA Cup. They ran out to a 2-0 win over Wolverhampton last week and have the edge here in the sense they haven’t played since last Saturday while Man City had to play the second leg of its Round of 16 Champions League tie with Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday. That ended up being a drab 0-0 draw. As mentioned earlier, Crystal Palace has been a “tough out” on home soil this season and should have more points. They are actually fourth in the league in xPts at home, so they are due for a positive result here. Remember that the Eagles shocked Man City earlier in the season with a 2-0 win at Etihad. The revenge angle, while in play for Man City, has clearly caused them to be overvalued for the rematch and I’ll gladly take the 1.5 goals in my “back pocket” with the underdog in this one. Man City comes into this one a little depleted on the back end. 10* Crystal Palace +1.5 |
|||||||
03-05-22 | Brentford v. Norwich City | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET) - Playing this one a little “safe” in that I’m taking Brentford as a “Draw No Bet” wager, which means a draw is a push instead of a loss in this scenario (different from playing the 3-way line). Make no mistake about it though, I expect Brentford to win here and get the full three points. The Bees are arguably the most underperforming side in the Premier League as they are actually 9th in xPts and have a xGD of just -3.69. The fact this newly promoted side is actually 15th in the table with a -17 GD is terribly unfortunate. I think, at this price, we are getting them in the ultimate “buy low” spot. Norwich City, who was also promoted to the top flight before the start of this campaign, is easily the worst team in the Premier League. They have a -40 GD and are at the foot of the table (i.e. in last place), looking like a lock to be relegated down to the Championship for next season. The misery continued midweek as the Canaries fell 2-1 to Liverpool in the fifth round of the FA Cup, thus eliminating them from that particular competition. It’s now four straight losses across all competitions for Norwich, who we just successfully faded last Friday against Southampton. They’ve been outscored 11-2 during the skid. Brentford is actually on an even worse run right now, having come up winless nine straight times. They’ve shipped multiple goals eight times during that stretch, but shouldn’t be overly concerned about conceding here as Norwich has scored only nine goals on home soil all season (fewest in EPL). This is a revenge spot for the Bees as they lost the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. Brentford won both the xG and possession battle in that first meeting; I simply cannot see them being swept by the basement side. Unlike the other two promoted sides (Watford, Norwich), I can’t see Brentford falling into the relegation zone, so this is a critical three points they need to pick up. I believe they will. 10* Brentford (Draw = No Bet) |
|||||||
02-19-22 | Everton +0.5 v. Southampton | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -121 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* Everton +0.5 (10:00 AM ET): I’m taking Everton to get at least a point on Saturday. To be clear, with this bet, a draw is a win and so too (obviously) is an outright win. This is a huge fixture for the Toffees, who can move further away from the relegation zone in the Premier League. Currently, they are in 16th place with 22 points, which is only five clear for safety. They picked up a much needed 3-0 win over Leeds last week, their second victory in the last three fixtures. I see them building off that here. Southampton is certainly in the midst of a surge. The Saints have picked up points in three consecutive matches, despite facing the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United. They drew with the two teams from Manchester and won away 3-2 at Tottenham. But I feel now is as good a time as any to sell high on the team from St. Mary’s. I just don’t see them being able to crack into the top half of the table and their -7 YTD goal differential isn’t all that much better than Everton’s -10. Moreover, Southampton may have seven more points than Everton, but that’s partly due to having played two more times. In the reverse, way back in August, the Toffees prevailed 3-1. They very much dominated that day and were deserved winners. Following the January transfer window, this side has some needed reinforcements and is finally healthy again. Southampton, who has drawn seven times in 11 home matches (most in EPL), isn’t 100 percent healthy coming into Saturday. The Saints were lucky to share the points last week with Man U. The three sides below them in the table all have better GD. 10* Everton +0.5 |
|||||||
02-19-22 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
10* Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): I’m taking Wolfsburg on the goal line, which means a draw is a no bet. Die Wolf has seemingly turned things around the L2 weeks, following a dreadful run of form that saw them go winless for 11 consecutive matches, including nine defeats. That had them dangerously close to the relegation zone, but now they’re back up to a more respectable 12th position in the table and only seven points off the top four (which is where they finished last season). A third straight win here would be gigantic. Now Hoffenheim is currently one of the four sides tied for fourth place in the Bundesliga with 34 points. I greatly prefer Leipzig in the race for the final Champions League spot, so don’t expect Die Kraichgauer to move past them. Like Wolfsburg, it had been a poor run of form recently with three consecutive losses for Hoffenheim before last week’s 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld. I find it very difficult to believe they can do any better than sharing the points here, given the poor defense that preceded last week’s victory. Last week was the first “clean sheet” for Hoffenheim since 11/20 vs. Leipzig. After opening 2022 with a 3-1 win over Augsburg (a bottom of the table side), Hoffenheim conceded at least two goals in four straight fixtures, all against teams in the top half of the table. So I expect Wolfsburg to get a goal or two here, continuing the offensive resurgence that has seen them find the back of the next six times over the L2 matches. Also, Die Wolf has revenge for a 3-1 loss in the reverse back in September. Again, no worse than a draw here for the home team. I like those odds. 10* Wolfsburg |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Bologna v. Cagliari | Top | 1-2 | Win | 107 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
8* Cagliari +0.5 (2:45 ET) - Take Cagliari +0.5 here (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this Tuesday Serie A clash, which had to be hastily rescheduled (because of COVID) after a Sunday postponement. Whereas my last Serie A play was a byproduct of projected mid-table reshuffling, this is a case where one side (Cagliari) is clearly in need of points so that it can escape the relegation zone. I think they’ll at least get one here, if not the full three. Cagliari is off a win as it returned from winter break with a huge 2-1 win over Sampdoria. That moved them past Genoa into 18th place with 13 points, but they are still four points adrift of safety and that’s why this fixture is so key. After hosting Bologna on Tuesday, the next four fixtures will all come against sides occupying spots in the top half of the table. So points will probably be few and far between in that stretch. Winning here is pretty key for survival, and given the visitors’ current circumstance, Cagliari’s chances of winning B2B matches looks pretty good. Prior to the postponement of this fixture, Bologna also had Thursday’s match vs. Inter Milan controversially waved off (at the last minute) due to a COVID outbreak in their ranks. They’ve been forced into isolation and unable to train for Cagliari. Throw in the fact that Bologna already felt like an overachieving side due to tumble (-4 YTD goal differential) and I don’t see how they win here. They’ve won just three times in nine chances away this season. 8* Cagliari +0.5 |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Sassuolo Calcio v. Empoli | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 40 h 3 m | Show |
7* Sassuolo +0.0 (6:30 AM ET): Take Sassuolo (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this early Sunday morning (EST) clash in Serie A. Both sides are in fact coming off draws mid-week: Sassuolo 1-1 with Genoa and Empoli 3-3 with Lazio. While they both feel like they left two points on the table, it’s Sassuolo that has the stronger claim and as I’m about to get into, I Neroverdi has actually been the stronger side this season (despite currently being three points adrift of Sunday’s opponent). Sassuolo fell behind just six minutes into its first fixture of 2022. Facing a bottom of the table side like Genoa, on home soil no less, that had to be a terrible feeling. But shortly after halftime, Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi was able to strike with an equalizer, allowing his side to at least earn a share of the points. Sassuolo had an incredible 28 shot attempts in the match (compared to just 4 for Genoa!) and dominated possession (74% to 26%), so they really should have been victorious. Empoli probably feels the same way after blowing an early 2-0 against Lazio and letting in a stoppage time equalizer. But the fact of the matter is that Empoli lost the possession battle (62% to 38%), had 12 fewer shot attempts and benefited from a VAR reversal of a Lazio goal. I had Lazio on Thursday and as I said in the analysis, Empoli should feel very fortunate to be sitting ninth in the table. They are actually sitting below Sassuolo in both xPts and GD right now. The visitors have suffered only one defeat in their last eight fixtures. 7* Sassuolo |
|||||||
12-20-21 | Valencia v. Levante | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
7* Levante (3:00 ET): Poor Levante. The Frogs are still winless this season and at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) with only eight points taken from their first 17 matches. They are seven points adrift of safety (meaning getting out of the relegation zone), so wins are desperately needed at this point. But with more than half (9 of 17) of Levante’s results this season ending up as draws, I thought it would be a wise move to play them on the goal line. Underlying metrics suggest Levante should be much higher in the table as they actually rank 13th in xPts (22.08) with the number of goals conceded seemingly being a very unlucky number. Now the opposition is in good form as Valencia is undefeated in eight straight across all competitions, including victories in each of the last four. That includes a couple wins this month in the Copa del Rey. Los Che currently sit 8th in the La Liga table, only four points behind fourth place Atletico Madrid. But this side has been a bit lucky throughout the campaign. Not just in a 2-1 win over Elche last week (where they lost the possession battle), but also coming from behind to beat Celta Vigo by the same scoreline two weeks ago. There was also a crazy draw with Atletico earlier in the season where Valencia was able to rally back from a two-goal deficit. On the flip side, Levante seemed a bit unlucky to end up with a 4-3 loss to Espanyol last week. Twice the Frogs blew a one-goal advantage. That they’ve yet to win since a managerial change is a bit surprising as typically there is a “bounce” after such a move is made. Note that three of Valencia’s last five results in La Liga have been draws and they lost the corresponding fixture here in Levante 1-0 last season. I have a “feeling” that it’s time for the hosts to pick up their first win of the season, but the GL protects us in case of a draw. 7* Levante |
|||||||
11-30-21 | Crystal Palace +0.25 v. Leeds United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace (3:15 ET): So for this particular bet to cash, all we need is our side to play to a draw. I like our odds, especially since I am expecting Crystal Palace to defeat Leeds United on Tuesday. CP just saw their seven-match unbeaten run come to an end Saturday with a disappointing 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. But the Eagles still sit in 11th place with 16 points on the year and only the top four teams in the table have suffered fewer defeats this campaign than CP’s three. While they only have three wins, their league-leading seven draws are something that should give confidence provided the nature of this bet. After earning promotion back into the EPL at the end of the 2019-20 season, Leeds had a strong return to this level of football, finishing ninth in 2020-21. But this season has seen them seemingly fall prey to the old “second season jinx” as the Whites currently sit 17th in the table and dangerously close to the drop zone, only three points clear. They enter Tuesday in especially poor form, having won just one of their last six EPL fixtures. That win came at the expense of dreadful Norwich City last month. In fact, both of Leeds’ wins this season have come against newly promoted sides. While Leeds did earn a 0-0 draw with Brighton over the weekend, they were quite lucky to do so after being outshot 2:1 and seeing Brighton hit the woodwork twice in the first half. It was actually the first clean sheet of the season for Leeds and now they must face a CP side that has scored two or more goals in four of its last five away matches, a run that includes fixtures with the likes of Arsenal, Man City and West Ham. Other than the top four, no Premier League side is looking all that impressive this season. A win here would get Palace into sixth place on GD and I simply don’t see them doing any worse than a draw. 10* Crystal Palace |
|||||||
07-07-21 | Denmark +0.75 v. England | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
10* Denmark +0.75 (3:00 ET): Note that I am playing the goal line here. While I do think Denmark has what it takes to win this semifinal in “normal time,” playing the goal line only requires them to be tied at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. England is the favorite here as they are at home (Wembley) and have yet to concede a single goal in this tournament. But Denmark will be their toughest test yet (yes, even tougher than Germany) and at the very least this match will be level at the end of regulation. You can definitely expect the Danes to be the first to score on The Three Lions. England may be the favorite on the money line, but Denmark is the sentimental favorite after what happened with Christian Eriksen in the very first match of the tournament. After losing their first two matches, Denmark looked to be in real trouble. But they’ve since won three in a row, all in normal time. They scored four goals against both Russia and Wales, then outlasted the Czech Republic 2-1 in the quarterfinals. The goal conceded in the quarterfinals is the lone non-penalty conceded by Denmark during the three match win streak. In other words, they’ve been almost as stingy as England while also displaying far more offensive firepower. Denmark leads England in shots on goal (86 to 37), expected goals (10.1 to 7.8) and actual goals (10 to 8) in this tournament. I did play England in their quarterfinal match against Ukraine, but noted it was a clear fade on the underdog, who was easily the weakest of the eight teams remaining. Winning at Wembley will be tough as Denmark won’t have the crowd support that they’ve relied on for much of this run. But all we need is for them to be even after 90 minutes. This is a side that has trailed for only 20 total minutes in their last four matches. England had scored only four goals in its first four matches. 10* Denmark +0.75 |
|||||||
12-11-20 | Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 v. VfL Wolfsburg | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 37 m | Show |
10* Eintracht Frankfurt (2:30 ET): Please note that this is a goal line selection where I’m taking Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25. Obviously, a win is what we’re looking for here. But by betting this way, we win even if the match is a draw. Given these two Bundesliga sides have drawn in 13 of their combined 20 league matches thus far, this seems like a savvy bet. The Bundesliga is shaping up to be an interesting league this season. You’ve got the three expected teams at the top - Bayern, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund - but also two unbeaten clubs, Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg. But Die Wolf still only sits 5th in the table because they’ve won just 4 of their 10 matches. They’ve played to a draw in the other six. I thought they were a bit lucky to remain unbeaten on the campaign as last week’s saw them barely escape with the 2-2 draw against FC Koln. Twice they were down a goal. Eventually this club is going to lose. Why not today? Eintracht Frankfurt is a side I was hoping to see improve this year and move up the table. Maybe that still happens? They are currently 9th in the table and are actually on a five-match unbeaten streak. Now all five of those matches did result in a draw. The latest was last week vs. BVB 1-1. Frankfurt’s last Bundesliga win was actually back on October 3rd vs. Hoffenheim. But they’ve only been beaten once the entire campaign and that was by Bayern Munich. Take that fixture away and Frankfurt has a positive goal differential on the year. They are desperate for the three points here. Don’t be surprised if they get them. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 |
|||||||
09-25-20 | Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (2:30 PM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt had to be terribly disappointed with the result from their first Bundesliga match of the 2020-21 season. Facing promoted Arminia Bielefeld, all the Die Adler could muster was a 1-1 draw. Considering how they really dominated possession, that should have been a win. This is a side that fell just four points shy of Europa League qualification last season, so turning these draws into wins is paramount. Meanwhile, Hertha Berlin is one of seven sides in the league that started out with a win. They downed Werder Bremen 4-1. That opponent was in total disarray from the outset, so I wouldn’t go reading too much into it. Hertha isn’t a team likely to finish near the top of the table this season. They actually finished one point behind Frankfurt last season. While Hertha has lost just one time in its previous five home affairs, that loss occurred to Frankfurt and it was by a score of 4-1. The sides also played to a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt last season. Coming off the disappointing draw, I expect an aggressive Frankfurt team here and taking the goal line is the way to go as it’ll give us a win in case of another draw. As I stated in last week’s analysis, Frankfurt is an underrated club this season. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt |
|||||||
07-11-18 | England v. Croatia +0.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
10* Croatia +0.5 (2:00 ET): As I said in my previous analysis, it's looking more and more like "the year" for England. I took The Three Lions in the quarterfinals when they blanked Sweden, 2-0, arguably their finest performance of this tournament to date. There's a real irony to the fact it was their lone loss (1-0 to Belgium) that set them up so well in this - clearly - weaker half of the draw. But make no mistake about it, their semifinal opponent - Croatia - is no pushover. Sure, it has taken penalty kicks for the Blazers to advance each of the last two rounds (over Denmark, then Russia). That left me unhappy as I was on them both times. But remember that it took PK's for England to get by Colombia as well in the Rd of 16. I see an even match here and Croatia will do no worse than a draw after 90 mins. A lot is being made of the extra football Croatia has had to play just to get here. But the reality is that they've played only 30 mins more than their English counterparts. I view that as a non-factor. More intriguing to me is how England handles its new role of the hunted (as opposed to being the hunter). They performed quite well against Sweden, their 1st match of the tournament where they did not concede. At the same time, it was also the first match where Harry Kane failed to find the back of the net. However, this is England's first trip to the World Cup semis in 28 years. The pressure is squarely on them Wednesday and I expect them to play a bit cautious. Croatia has scored 10 goals in the tournament, just one fewer than England. They've also been less reliant on set pieces. They clearly have the edge in the midfield as well, where led by Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, they may be as talented as any team in the entire draw. Also keep in mind that 6 of England's 11 goals scored in this tournament came against a lousy Panama side. Croatia is unbeaten in its last six matches overall. They will not go down easily and I feel England is overvalued in this particular spot. 10* Croatia |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Poland v. Japan | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
8* Japan +0 (10:00 AM ET): Note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here, meaning that in case of a draw, the result will be a 'push.' This is a nice way to "protect" ourselves in a situation where Japan, not Poland, should now be considered the favorite. Group H, already considered the most "wide open" when the draw was announced, quickly plunged into "choas" w/ the results of the first two matches here in Russia. Those results saw Japan stun Colombia and Senegal upend Poland. Japan didn't stop there though, earning itself a rather dramatic draw against Senegal and they are now the group leaders w/ four points. Poland, meanwhile, is winless and the only team in the group eliminated. So you can see how, from a motivational perspective, I'd side w/ Japan here. It wasn't supposed to be this way for Poland. Coming into the World Cup ranked #8 by FIFA, the Eagles were expected to advance past the Group Stage, led by Robert Lewandowski. But this isn't a deep team and that's why I played against them in the opener vs. Senegal (using the Asian Handicap). That was an ugly game and the sixth straight time Poland failed to win its first WC match. Then, a 3-0 loss to Colombia ensured a 32-year drought of not advancing past the Group Stage would continue. The lack of depth behind Lewandowski has been apparent in the first two games as they've scored just one goal (and it came late vs. Senegal and maybe shouldn't have counted) and had only six shots on goal. Having already been eliminated and off two brutal losses, I question this side's ability to find the adequate motivation on Thursday. Just like Poland at the bottom of Group H is a surprise, Japan at the top is equally (if not more) shocking. After stunning Colombia 2-1 in the opener, they pulled out a dramatic 2-2 draw vs. Senegal w/ Keisuke Honda coming off the bench to score in the 78th minute. All they need here is another draw and they're onto the Round of 16. But don't think for a second that the Samurai Blue will be satisfied w/ simply a draw here. This is an attacking group w/ plenty of experience. "I think we have to focus on getting three points rather than make calculations. We have four points after two games but we haven't accomplished anything yet," said captain Makoto Hasebe. They are the more motivated side here and I believe will be victorious here. 8* Japan |
|||||||
06-20-18 | Morocco +1 v. Portugal | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Morocco +1 (8:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here where all we need is a draw. Morocco got the proverbial "raw deal" in its opening match, losing on an "own goal" (in the 95th minute!) to Iran, 1-0. I had the Under in that game, an easy winner. I did not have a play in Portugal's opener where they drew Iberian rival Spain, 3-3, as all three of their goals came off the foot of the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo. Prevailing wisdom here is that a mentally beaten Morocco will be no match for Ronaldo and company. But I contest that theory. What If Ronaldo isn't at the same level we saw him at against Spain? The Atlas Lions can certainly earn a draw here. Realistically, Morocco probably needs a win here to have any chance of advancing past the group stage. Therefore, look for them to be a lot more aggressive than they were against Iran. That said, this is still a team that "should have" played to a scoreless draw vs. Iran. Had they done so, they would have added to their already impressive total of recent "clean sheets." As I said in my analysis for the matchup w/ the Iranians, Morocco went unbeaten in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches. That's really impressive. It should also be stated that while they lost to Iran, the Atlas Lions truly did outplay Team Melli. They had 13 shots on goal (to Iran's 8) and also had possession of the ball 63% of the time. The reigning Euro Champs would seem to have a clear path to advancing to the Round of 16. Beating Morocco and Iran would get them there and Selecao has lost just two competitive matches since the '14 World Cup. Both times Ronaldo was injured and did not play. However, it needs to be reiterated how this isn't the deepest of teams. Other than Ronaldo, who can score? No one did vs. Spain and they also conceded three goals. Considering the "stinginess" of the Moroccan side, Portugal won't be scoring as many times here as they did in the opener. Count on that. A goal from the Atlas Lions all but assures us this won't be a losing bet. 8* Morocco +1 |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Senegal +0.5 v. Poland | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
8* Senegal +0.5 (11:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the "Asian Handicap" for this play, which means we win if the game is a draw OR (obviously) if our side prevails outright. I like Senegal getting a half-goal in this situation as I believe them to be every bit as talented as their favored counterparts in Poland, if not more. Group H is perceived to be the most "wide-open" of the entire draw and if there is to be an "upset," I believe it would be here and that could have major ramifications for the rest of the group and possibly have Senegal advance to the round of 16 alongside group favorite Colombia. The +0.5 is a nice luxury to have here. Qualifying for this year's WC came fairly easy for Senegal. The Lions of Teranga took 14 points in their six matches (four wins) and scored 10 goals in the process. They didn't lose and one of the two draws saw them give up the lead in the 88th minute. It's a talented group, led by Sadio Mane, who was Liverpool's second best player this past Premier League campaign, behind only Mohamed Salah. It's the first World Cup appearance since that miraculous run to the quarterfinal round in 2002 (which included an opening rd win over France) and while no African side has ever won a WC, I believe this one can certainly make some noise in the group stage. Poland comes in at 8th in the FIFA rankings, but I have to wonder if that's too high. The team is highly dependent on Robert Lewandowski, whose 16 goals were tops in UEFA qualifying. However, some of the other key players simply did not have impressive seasons w/ their respective clubs. Quite frankly, I don't think it's a stretch to say Senegal is the deeper side here. This will be Poland's first WC appearance since '06 and they haven't made it out of the group stage since 1986. They are likely going to be w/o defender Kamil Glik on Tuesday, which would be a key absence. I see a draw being a likely scenario here (which would be potentially huge for Senegal) and that's all we need. 8* Senegal +0.5 |
|||||||
07-07-16 | France v. Germany | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
5* France +0.5 (3:00 ET): The tournament hosts only needing to be even after 90 minutes is a nice luxury to have here, even though the price to pay is somewhat steep. Ever since falling behind Ireland 1-0 early (3' penalty kick), France has looked really impressive. They poured it on in the second half vs. Ireland, scoring twice in a short time frame, and then absolutely blitzed and admittedly overmatched Icelandic side, 5-2, a match where I had the 1st Half Over and cashed in the 19th minute (four total goals scored in first 45 mins). Clearly, it won't be that easy here against Germany in the semis, but I feel that Les Bleus certainly won't be losing within 90 minutes. Playing in front of a partisan crowd, France doesn't need any extra advantages, but they'll have a big one here and that's being at full strength. Germany, meanwhile, could have as many as four key contributors missing here. Mats Hummels has been booked, so we know he's out and both midfielder Sami Khedira and striker Mario Gomez are injured. Making matters worse is tat Khedira's likely replacement Bastian Schweinsteiger is also probably out. While they didn't concede any goals during the group stage, it's not as if Germany was overly dominant against Ukraine, Poland and Northern Ireland. They saved their best for Slovakia in the Round of 16 (won 3-0), but then narrowly escaped Italy (penalty kicks) in the quarterfinals. Don't discount the impact that match with the Azzurri has on this team here. France has been the top-scoring side in this tournament w/ 11 goals. Obviously, that's heavily influenced by what they did to Iceland Sunday. Yet, the bottom line is that Les Bleus is unbeaten in their last nine matches overall, including four wins and a draw here at Euro 2016. Yes, Germany is unbeaten in its last six fixtures and has conceded just the lone goal at this tournament. But, short-handed, the Mannschaft are up against it here. 5* France +0.5 |
|||||||
06-27-16 | Iceland +1 v. England | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
10* Iceland +1 (3:00 ET): Note I am taking Iceland +1 here. This has been the Cinderella story of the tournament thus far as the Euro Cup neophyte has made the Round of 16. Iceland shockingly has yet to lose here in France, pulling off one win and two draws in group play. In each fixture, they conceded only one goal. The opposition will be stiff Monday as they take on heavily favored England, who made its way through the group stage w/ one win and two draws, same as Iceland. While those results were cause for celebration in Reykjavic and beyond, in London, they were considered quite disappointing. I'd be leery of trusting The Three Lions at this stage of the game. This one will at least be tied at the end of 90 minutes. Iceland is most likely to employ a defensive strategy here, one that can frustrate the English much the same way that Hungary and Portugal were left frustrated as well. There has been consistency with the Iceland Starting XI whereas I expect changes from Roy Hodgson. Yes, England has done well in terms of possession, but they are not converting at the rate you'd like to see. Even if The Three Lions were to win this in extra time, I imagine it's going to be another frustrating result for them. They have not won in the knockout round of a European Championship since 1996! Iceland is actually unbeaten in its last nine competitive fixtures. I really think that Hodgson blew it by making all those changes to his Starting XI prior to the Slovakia match. The result was a goalless draw w/ Slovakia that cost them the group. I look for there to be a sort-of "carry over" effect to this match, at least early on. Remember that this side also trailed Wales early and had it not been for a stoppage time score, they wouldn't have won at all in the group stage. All of their goals thus far have come from the 56' minute on. Again, Iceland is playing well right now and I expect them to do no worse than to get this thing into extra time. 10* Iceland (+1) |