Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-15 | Steelers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 46 h 26 m | Show | |
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 Value has finally shifted enough for me to back the Seahawks Sunday. Pittsburgh may be coming off a bye but that's an overrated alleged handicapping advantage. At this point of the season you can find prime value by forecasting playoff teams. This is a great spot for Seattle as they face the Vikings the following week. After weeks of inconsistency offensively and defensively both sides of the football are starting to ascend on the field. That goes a long way for a team that has lost key games by slim margins. Home field and improved play has me on the Seahawks side Sunday. |
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11-29-15 | Saints v. Texans -3 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston Texans -3 The firing of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not going to turn around anything. Personnel is still horrid for the Saints defense and throughout Drew Brees career he has struggled against physical defensive lines. The Texans bring that too the table which will key Houston. Brian Hoyer has been an underrated starter against mediocre teams. A few seasons ago he had the Browns rolling before a season ending knee injury and did the same last year before facing stiffer competition. The Saints are a below average team that will not have answers for the Texans defensive front. Grab the Texans. |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7 v. Patriots | 13-20 | Push | 0 | 70 h 38 m | Show | |
Buffalo +7.5 The undefeated Patriots nearly lost a week ago and are having to adjust without two key players. Julian Edelman is out for several weeks and Dion Lewis out for the year. Tom Brady does not have the safety valve out of the backfield he has had in recent years with Woodhead, Shane Vereen, and Lewis this season. I believe that'll cause problems and allow Buffalo to apply more pressure than they did in week two. Remember, in week two the point spread shifted from -2 on the Patriots side to the Bills favored by a point before kickoff. I'm not falling for an 8.5 point swing with the Bills improving and Patriots hurting with injuries. Play the Bills |
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11-22-15 | Packers +1 v. Vikings | 30-13 | Win | 100 | 42 h 32 m | Show | |
Green Bay +1 I've commented a few times this season that the Packers are notorious for 2-3 game in-season lulls. It's happened time and time again for Aaron Rodgers and Mike Mccarthy. Now that the bandwagon has shifted against them I believe they'll snap out of it like they have in years past. Minnesota has piled up the wins but they're doing so with a meager point per game average offensively. Rodgers will get things back and order for the Packers Sunday |
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11-22-15 | Colts +5.5 v. Falcons | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 38 h 7 m | Show | |
Indianapolis +5.5 The focus for Indianapolis is how they're going to perform with Andrew Luck out of the lineup. It should be but my focus on this play will be the opposing starting quarterback in Matt Ryan. Ryan's play has been horrific over the last four to five games, and I don't see him snapping out of it anytime soon. Atlanta's defense just is not strong enough to support an offense struggling. The difference with Matt Hasselbeck in the lineup over Luck is the turnover battle. The Colts will win that battle and get the cover Sunday. |
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11-22-15 | Cowboys v. Dolphins +1 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
Play Miami +1 Tony Romo is going to come back tomorrow and start the Cowboys playoffs surge. Not exactly. Although the Cowboys do welcome Romo back it's going to be tough on the veteran quarterback to upstart a team that has lost severe confidence on both sides of the football. The team Romo is stepping into the huddle with is not remotely the team it was in week two or last year when Romo came back after missing the Cardinals game. Miami has worked too hard on offense and defense under Dan Campbell to lose to an unconfident Cowboys team at home. This is not last season and a miracle to the Cowboys season is not going to happen. |
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11-15-15 | Vikings +3 v. Raiders | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 75 h 12 m | Show | |
Play Vikings +3 |
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11-15-15 | Saints v. Redskins | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 39 h 31 m | Show | |
Redskins Pick The Saints have been a puzzling team over the last month. They've been able to win games against the Giants, Colts, and Falcons thanks to turnovers and rather poor play from opposing teams. Washington has the perception as one of the worst teams in football but have been tough at home. They've won three of their four games and played well enough to defeat Miami in week one. We'll back the Redskins to dictate the style of play Sunday and grab the win over the Saints. |
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11-12-15 | Bills +3 v. Jets | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 51 m | Show | |
Play Bills +3 |
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11-09-15 | Bears +4 v. Chargers | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show | |
Chicago Bears I rarely play any games ATS for or against the Chargers. But I like the prime time setup for Monday’s game. Both the Bears and Chargers have lost countless games in dramatic fashion. While the praise has been more centered on quarterback Philip Rivers, people are ignoring the quiet production of Jay Cutler. He is making less mistakes by playing more within the offense. The loss of Matt Forte does hurt but Cutler will be able to utilize Alshon Jeffrey and Bennett against a pour Chargers defense. Grab the Bears Monday. Play Bears plus 4 |
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11-08-15 | Eagles v. Cowboys +3 | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
Dallas Cowboys Has Chip Kelly corrected his team’s inefficiencies? No. Dallas may have lost five games in a row but with a win Sunday they’ll be right back in the thick of the NFC East. There last win was over the Eagles in which they controlled the time of possession 2 to 1 with over forty minutes on their side. As many issues as the Cowboys have they have a quiet confidence against the Eagles. Grab Dallas in a favorable position of plus 3. Play Cowboys plus 3 |
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11-08-15 | Falcons v. 49ers +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
San Francisco 49ers +7.5 In any profession a shakeup amongst a team that’s lagged gets reenergized with new pieces. Kaepernick’s poor stretch over the last three weeks produced dismal results. Add to that the 49ers traded Vernon Davis. A season that has little hope left for it will turn to quarterback Blaine Gabbert. I expect the 49ers to play adequately against the Falcons with new life. It likely won’t last beyond this week but this a great opportunity to buy the difference from 5.5 to 7.5. Is a two point spread increase worthy for players such as Kaep and Davis? Not in my opinion. Grab the points. |
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11-08-15 | Giants -2.5 v. Bucs | 32-18 | Win | 100 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
Giants -2.5 The string of success by Tampa Bay is enough to lure people on them this weekend against the Giants. Not me. Jameis Winston is still a rookie and has benefitted from a great run game and poor opposing offensive execution. Atlanta practically gifted the Bucs the win last week thanks to Matt Ryan’s awful play. New York may be on a bit of a slide themselves but they’re as potent as they come offensively. Odell Beckham and company should have a big day against the Buccaneers. Expect Winston to look a bit more like a rookie Sunday. |
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11-02-15 | Colts +7 v. Panthers | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 70 h 38 m | Show | |
Indianapolis +7.5 The drastic jump of oddsmakers hike in value on the Panthers is alarming. Yes they’ve won ten straight but they have not been a team that necessarily blows teams out. I think the value here is on the Colts. For as bad as they’ve played the last two weeks they still have only lost by a touchdown or less. Don’t fall for the back to back prime time lure on the Panthers. Grab the Colts. |
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11-01-15 | Packers v. Broncos +3 | 10-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 49 m | Show | |
Denver plus 3 Shop around to find the plus 3’s out there, or if you have to buy the hook. This should be everything it’s planned to be and more. Green Bay has the best quarterback in the league and a defense that has shown tremendous growth. The headliner that has drawn Green Bay as a road favorite is the poor play of Peyton Manning. Hey folks, get over it. Manning is who is he at this stage in his career and his team has adjusted. Frankly it’s shocking to me that people still have not seen the odd value shift from the Broncos a season ago to now. Last year they were favored by near double digits every game with a horrid defense and failed to cover repeatedly. This season they’ve been low favorites the majority of games with a top tier defense and keep covering the number. I’ll back them at home as the same recipe of strong defense and timely offense will key the win for the Broncos. |
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11-01-15 | 49ers +8 v. Rams | 6-27 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 17 m | Show | |
Play San Francisco plus 8 Todd Gurley has been as impressive of a player over the last month of the NFL season. But concern has to be high with the play of Nick Foles. Foles has not had a solid outing since the Rams win over the Cardinals. There are strong concerns with San Francisco and how they’ll operate with Carlos Hyde out of the lineup. Hyde has been playing through an injury anyways which makes him being out less of an issue. Some quarterbacks have a quiet confidence against certain opponents and Colin Kaepernick is one against the Rams. He has had some of his best performances against the Rams and I expect him to showcase that confidence Sunday. Buy the 49ers on an inflated line. |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens +8.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | 18-26 | Win | 100 | 75 h 36 m | Show | |
Baltimore Ravens plus 8.5 Baltimore has had issues galore to for the first half of the NFL season. But to say they should be 8.5 point underdogs is a bit of a stretch. Arizona has stumbled in two of their last three games and seem to be having issues on both sides of the football. All of Baltimore's losses have been close affairs and winnable games in the fourth quarter. As stated in a prior column, Arizona's strong home record under Carson Palmer and Bruce Arians at 12-3 is impressive. Before this season the Cardinals were only 4.5 point favorites or higher just once during that span. Oddsmaker's have adjusted to the public and sharp money that has been coming in on Arizona this season. Grab Baltimore to play another competitive game win or lose and stay within the number. |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Carolina Panthers | 16-27 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 36 m | Show | |
Philadelphia Eagles +3 Earlier in the week my mindset was to take the streaking Carolina Panthers. But upon further review I’ll grab the points with the Philadelphia Eagles. Sometimes matchups just don’t bode well for an opponent and I believe that to be the case for Carolina here. Tempo has been dictated by the Panthers in the majority of games this season especially in second halves. Second halves are where the Eagles thrive on Chip Kelly’s adjustments. The Eagles have momentum and confidence with the NFC East division in their hands after a poor start. Look for the Eagles to play a great brand of football and play similar to last year’s performance against the Panthers. |
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10-25-15 | Oakland Raiders +4 v. San Diego Chargers | 37-29 | Win | 100 | 46 h 12 m | Show | |
Oakland Raiders +4 Philip Rivers has done a fantastic job at this stage in his career at keeping the Chargers afloat. But sooner or later it has to take its toll on the veteran. He has an inefficient run game and the Chargers defense is extremely vulnerable. Oakland can utilize a simplistic game plan with the run and passing attack to keep this game close. San Diego has difficulty pulling away from teams and that’ll leave a fourth quarter opportunity for the Raiders. Expect a kneel down cover or the Raiders to win this outright. |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 7-27 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 22 m | Show | |
Giants +5 The NY Giants travel to face their division rivals the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday night football. The division has had its typical parity with the Giants leading the division by one game over Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington. To see the Giants as a road dog here is quite surprising. They do have some injury concerns but their defense has been playing well and the Eagles just have not been consistent enough to back on this steep of a line. Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin together are 30-14-2 ATS in the month of October. They’ll grab another cover here Monday night. |
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10-18-15 | New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +9.5 | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 23 m | Show | |
Colts +9.5 This spread in August was -3 on the Colts side against the Patriots. It opened at 7 and has shot up to as high as 11 in some markets. There comes a point in time in any market where saturation becomes too much. This is probably that highest moment of any game this NFL season. For the first time this season the Patriots are not receiving buyback on the opposing team, as was the case against the Steelers, Bills, Jaguars, and Cowboys. Boiling down those opponents they faced a backup quarterback in Brandon Weeden, a first year starter in Tyrod Taylor, a struggling second year quarterback in Blake Bortles, and did not cover week one against the Steelers. The Colts will finally play a competitive game against the Patriots and cover this inflated number. |
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10-18-15 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 39 h 8 m | Show | |
10/18 01:05 PM NFL (267) CAROLINA PANTHERS VS (268) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS edit
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10-18-15 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Buffalo Bills +3 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 54 m | Show | |
Play Buffalo plus 3.5 The Bengals are undefeated thanks to superb play in fourth quarters against the Seahawks, Ravens, and Chargers. Sooner or later their way of waiting until the fourth quarter to pull off games is going to bite them. Even with the Bills quarterback situation uncertain I like the Bills home edge here. They’ve won in the past with backup quarterbacks in emergency spot starts with a lengthy list of quarterbacks. One of the reasons for that is their home field edge. The defense, which has been subpar for the past few weeks, should be ready to respond and the Bills will have LeSean Mccoy and possibly Sammy Watkins back. Grab the Bills plus 3.5. |
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10-11-15 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. NY Giants | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 102 h 58 m | Show | |
10/11 05:30 PM NFL (473) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (474) NEW YORK GIANTS edit
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10-11-15 | New England Patriots v. Dallas Cowboys +10 | 30-6 | Loss | -130 | 98 h 54 m | Show | |
10/11 01:25 PM NFL (469) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (470) DALLAS COWBOYS edit
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10-11-15 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 v. Detroit Lions | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 98 h 35 m | Show | |
10/11 01:05 PM NFL (467) ARIZONA CARDINALS VS (468) DETROIT LIONS edit |
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10-11-15 | Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 95 h 31 m | Show | |
10/11 10:00 AM NFL (451) JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS (452) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS edit
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10-11-15 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 95 h 30 m | Show | |
10/11 10:00 AM NFL (465) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (466) CINCINNATI BENGALS edit
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10-05-15 | Detroit Lions +10.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 21 m | Show | |
10/05 05:30 PM NFL (277) DETROIT LIONS VS (278) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS edit
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10-05-15 | Dallas Cowboys v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
10/04 05:30 PM NFL (275) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (276) NEW ORLEANS SAINTS edit
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10-04-15 | NY Giants v. Buffalo Bills -5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 53 m | Show | |
10/04 10:00 AM NFL (259) NEW YORK GIANTS VS (260) BUFFALO BILLS edit
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10-04-15 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Cincinnati Bengals -4 | 21-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
10/04 10:00 AM NFL (265) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS (266) CINCINNATI BENGALS edit
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10-04-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Redskins plus 3 The daunting task of Sunday hails with a Washington Redskins franchise on the brink of another failure. They'll try and avoid a 1-3 start by defeating the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia avoided an 0-3 start a week ago against the Jets but did so yet again with poor play from quarterback Sam Bradford. Bradford threw for under 130 yards and has yet to shown the skills Chip Kelly needs from him. Washington is coming off extended rest and should be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Teams have shown an ability to respond well off of a Thursday night loss over the years. Grab Washington to stay in this game and get the field goal cover over their division rivals. |
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09-27-15 | Denver Broncos -3 v. Detroit Lions | 24-12 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show | |
09/27 05:30 PM NFL (487) DENVER BRONCOS VS (488) DETROIT LIONS edit
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09-27-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets -1 | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
09/27 10:00 AM NFL (467) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (468) NEW YORK JETS edit
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09-27-15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Houston Texans | 9-19 | Loss | -130 | 47 h 55 m | Show | |
09/27 10:00 AM NFL (465) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS (466) HOUSTON TEXANS edit
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09-20-15 | Seattle Seahawks v. Green Bay Packers -3 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show | |
09/20 05:30 PM NFL (287) SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS (288) GREEN BAY PACKERS edit
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09-20-15 | Dallas Cowboys +5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 45 h 14 m | Show | |
09/20 01:25 PM NFL (285) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (286) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES edit
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09-20-15 | San Francisco 49ers +7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 18-43 | Loss | -130 | 42 h 51 m | Show | |
09/20 10:00 AM NFL (265) SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS VS (266) PITTSBURGH STEELERS edit
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09-20-15 | New England Patriots -1 v. Buffalo Bills | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 42 h 50 m | Show | |
09/20 10:00 AM NFL (269) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS (270) BUFFALO BILLS edit
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09-14-15 | Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Atlanta Falcons | 24-26 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 10 m | Show | |
09/14 04:10 PM NFL (489) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS (490) ATLANTA FALCONS edit
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09-13-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos -4 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 74 h 28 m | Show | |
09/13 01:25 PM NFL (485) BALTIMORE RAVENS VS (486) DENVER BRONCOS edit
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09-13-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Buffalo Bills +2.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 71 h 1 m | Show | |
09/13 10:00 AM NFL (469) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS (470) BUFFALO BILLS edit
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09-13-15 | Cleveland Browns +3.5 v. NY Jets | 10-31 | Loss | -106 | 37 h 33 m | Show | |
09/13 10:00 AM NFL (467) CLEVELAND BROWNS VS (468) NEW YORK JETS edit
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09-13-15 | Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Washington Redskins | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
09/13 10:00 AM NFL (471) MIAMI DOLPHINS VS (472) WASHINGTON REDSKINS edit
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01-18-15 | Green Bay Packers +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 110 h 60 m | Show | |
Play Green Bay +7.5 For an NFC Title game you would think the Packers were a 6th seed that made it this far with the point spread. Seattle has been a money backer as of late and seem to be getting a bit too much value in this one. Green Bay's balanced offensive attack is going to be extremely tough for Seattle to shut down. Defensively Green Bay can do just enough to keep the Seahawks out of the end zone and keep this close. In the end 7.5 is too many points. Grab the Packers. |
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01-11-15 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | 24-13 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
01/11 01:40 PM NFL (119) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS (120) DENVER BRONCOS edit
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01-11-15 | Dallas Cowboys +6 v. Green Bay Packers | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
01/11 10:05 AM NFL (117) DALLAS COWBOYS VS (118) GREEN BAY PACKERS edit
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01-04-15 | Detroit Lions +7.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
01/03 12:00 PM NFL (101) DETROIT LIONS VS (102) DALLAS COWBOYS edit |
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01-03-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 30-17 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
01/03 05:15 PM NFL (103) BALTIMORE RAVENS VS (104) PITTSBURGH STEELERS edit
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12-28-14 | Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show | |
12/28 01:25 PM NFL (301) DETROIT LIONS VS (302) GREEN BAY PACKERS edit
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12-28-14 | Carolina Panthers +3 v. Atlanta Falcons | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show | |
12/28 01:25 PM NFL (315) CAROLINA PANTHERS VS (316) ATLANTA FALCONS edit
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12-21-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
12/21 10:00 AM NFL (117) KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS (118) PITTSBURGH STEELERS edit
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