The Philadelphia Eagles we’ve seen the extreme red flags with the offense before just two seasons ago. Last week’s defensive win does not mask the ten points the offense put up, which is the fewest under Jalen Hurts in a game he started and finished. Now we are seeing the lowest home spread offering for the Eagles over the last couple of seasons. Take Detroit as the offense continues to find rhythm with Dan Campbell as play caller.

The Chicago Bears have won six out of their last seven games, but needed miraculous come backs the last two weeks to get the job done. Examining their schedule the weak link has been in the division where they are 0-2 on the year. Stretching it back to last season Caleb Williams is 1 and 7 against NFC North opponents. The one win was with the Packers backups in week eighteen. Even though JJ McCarthy is unpolished take the Vikings on the small number.

The Carolina Panthers have won four straight games with Bryce Young as quarterback. Last week was the big shocker winning as a double digit underdog on the road against Green Bay. Now they will face a Saints team that is 1-8 on the year, benched Spencer Rattler, and traded away Rasheed Shaheed. Still, look for Tyler Shough to play a bit better than his debut, and for the Panthers to have a back to reality game. Take the Saints.

The Chicago Bears had it as easy as they could last week offensively, against the worst defense in football in the Cincinnati Bengals. Now they have won five out of their last six games, boosting their spread value against a Giants team that is 0-5 on the road.  In the second half of last week’s loss Jaxson Dart showed some confidence and growth in the passing game down the field. Look for that to be an x-factor Sunday, as the Giants hang around against the Bears.

Playing through injuries can only get you so far. The 49ers fell flat in last week’s loss against the Houston Texans, and now will travel on the road in consecutive weeks to face the Giants. As beat up as they are expect Kyle Shanahan to do his best to keep time of possession in his favor. Mac Jones is also undefeated in his career in MetLife stadium with a 3-0 record, and all wins by five points or more. Take the 49ers in what might be the sloppiest game of the day. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are beat up offensively with quarterback Joe Flacco, and have the worst defense in yards and points per game. A defense that allowed the winless Jets to mount a double digit comeback win last week. Still, this is a game they have to have similar to Baltimore a week ago against this Bears team. Chicago without De’Andre Swift is going to put more of a focus on Caleb Williams to make plays. Take the Bengals plus the points.

The New England Patriots are tied with the Denver Broncos for the best win streak in the NFL at five games. The win streak featured all covers ATS by the Patriots, which I believe has finally forced the oddsmakers to adjust aggressively on New England. Keep in mind New England had a rigorous three game road trip, before returning home last week. Sometimes it’s the second home game that a team has their slip up moments, which we have seen from New England against the Raiders and Steelers. Take the Falcons plus the points after two poor showings against the 49ers 

Prime time has been very tricky this season, but I look for the Packers to get the road win against Pittsburgh. With Mike Tomlin’s Steelers we’ve seen the hot starts but also the wall that causes an extreme reverse in losses. Green Bay has had a heavy road schedule as this will be their fourth road game over their last five, but what they have been able to do is win. Low enough spread here that I’ll buy on the Packers side.

Sunday we have a matchup of prime time eyes just last week. Houston laid an egg in Monday Night football, while San Francisco shined creating a prime time inflation spot on the 49ers. Some teams struggle post bye week and that was the case for the Houston Texans. The offense assuredly may continue to struggle without key weapons at wide receiver including Nico Collins. Yet, I believe the Texans defense rises to the occasion winning the turnover battle and making things difficult for the 49ers. Take the Texans.

The Buffalo Bills have killed backers ATS this season, and even with that their number remains high on the road against the Carolina Panthers. Expect Josh Allen to settle back in off the bye week and also for the defense to perform better after getting gashed by the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots. Andy Dalton has shown to be serviceable backup but now has to step in and play with pressure as the Panthers have won three straight. Take the value on the Bills.

A year ago the Green Bay Packers blew out the Arizona Cardinals as a short three point favorite at home. Now they are more then double the favorite on the road, after failing to cover their last two games against Cincinnati and Dallas. Expect the Packers to overwhelm a Cardinals team that has been fighting but losing as of late. Packers roll in this afternoon game in Glendale, Arizona. 

The Miami Dolphins have shown fight since Darren Waller got his first action in week four against the New York Jets. Miami had leads late before losing by three points to Carolina, and two points to the Chargers. Sunday could be the complete bottom spot for Miami against a Browns team that is now settled in after playing in Europe two weeks ago. Tail the home favorite here in Cleveland.

The Philadelphia Eagles just two weeks ago had a 20-1 streak going. Now they head into their road game against the Vikings having lost consecutive games. It’s a similar down turn we saw at the tail end of the 2023 season when the Eagles went 1 and 7 over their final eight games. Look for the Eagles to get in their own way, as the Vikings do just enough to get the home cover.

From a coaching and player stand point there is not a team in the NFL that has to answer with an urgent performance Sunday more than the Raiders. They have been torched defensively over the last three weeks giving up an average of 35 points, and Geno Smith has thrown nine interceptions. It’s the right opponent in the Tennessee Titans who are coming off a fortunate win over the Cardinals. Lay the number with the Raiders.

It’s always tricky when a team is on the road in the east coast time zone in consecutive weeks. Yet, this Dallas Cowboys team was sparked by an embarrassing road loss against the Chicago Bears. Carolina may be 2-0 at home as an underdog, but defied the odds last week against Miami with a 200 yard game from Rico Dowdle. They also converted two improbable fourth downs. Take the Cowboys as Bruce Young has shown throughout his young career to not be trustworthy in consecutive weeks.

The LA Chargers fell from the undefeated ranks last week, but it was in the making. They were very flat in the second half of their Monday night win over the Raiders, and were outplayed by Denver even though they got the win. Look for the Washington Commanders with Jayden Daniels back to have enough to offset their injuries. Take Washington.

The Miami Dolphins picked up an important win on Monday against a winless New York Jets team. They utilized having the extra rest advantage over New York. Now they have to travel on the road and face a Carolina team eager to bounce back after an embarrassing loss last week against the Patriots. Take Carolina where the Panthers only home game this year was a shutout 30-0 win.

Spencer Rattler has yet to get a win in his career as he is 0-10. Yet, he has had the Saints in position in several games this year, and now New Orleans returns home after a two game road trip. Over the Saints last ten games their only win was against the Giants. An x-factor is new Coach Kellen Moore as he is 6-0 in his last six games against the Giants as a play caller with the Eagles and Cowboys. Take the Saints.

Sometimes a bad loss can spark a team. Green Bay got content late up 10 to 0 on the Cleveland Browns, and had a poor game offensively in all phases. Josh Jacobs did not establish the ground game, the offensive line allowed five sacks, and Jordan Love threw a costly late interception. With all of that they have a dominant history against Dallas, and have won five straight games overall in Dallas. Take the Packers as they surge past the Cowboys.

The Kansas City Chiefs are getting healthier with the return of Xavier Worthy, but the lack of a ground game is still there. Baltimore ran into a Detroit team playing peak football on Monday night, look for the Ravens to use that as fuel to clean up issues on both sides of the football. It’s also a value angle seeing the Chiefs for the second time this season as a home underdog. Grab the Ravens.

The New York Giants are coming off an embarrassing performance on Sunday night football, and will now turn to Jaxson Dart at quarterback. The Giants had six players upgraded from questionable giving the offense a boost, and the Chargers are one of the more road heavy teams to begin the year. They played in Brazil, Vegas, and now make the cross country flight to New York. Grab the big points here with the Giants.

The New England Patriots had one of the worst self destruction games a team can have last week against the Steelers. They turned the football over five times, and did not get the necessary stop defensively with the game tied at 14. Carolina for a second straight week has covered the spread, but in a non divisional game I expect more of what we saw for a full game against Jacksonville and three quarters against the Cardinals. Lay the number with New England.

One of the toughest elements for a team is starting the year on the road consecutive games. The 49ers had to do so, and despite covering the number as favorites find themselves as slim home favorites Sunday. Arizona swept the series last year, and can play the same clock management game that Kyle Shanahan is well known for. This comes down to the wire, but grab the Cardinals to execute in the end.

The New Orlean Saints have lived right on the number in their first two games against the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers. That captures the betting market, and is an opportune spot for me as the big let down occurs. Spencer Rattler still is winless in his career with an 0-8 mark, and Seattle has the tools on both sides of the football to make this a pull away game in the second half. Take the Seahawks.

The Denver Broncos were a non penalty away from securing a tough win at Indianapolis. Instead they went to 1-1, but expect that loss to drive the team to prove themselves early against the LA Chargers. Bo Nix and Sean Payton found their offensive rhythm, and you also have the ex-factor of JK Dobbins facing his old team. Take the Broncos plus the points.

Teams having back to back road games early in the season can devalue them ATS. For the Rams they have that on a small number, against an Eagles team that has won eleven straight home games. The revenge angle is also in play after the Rams cost themselves a trip to the NFC Championship game with two fourth quarter fumbles, and failed on their final drive that got all the way to the Eagles thirteen. Take the Rams in what is the fourth meeting over the last three years. 

Small home favorites off a poor week one I’m willing to buy. For the Houston Texans they are once again dealing with key injuries offensively, with Joe Mixon out at running back. CJ Stroud needs to find his confidence and do so quickly though the air. Look for the small wins as the Texans play solid defense, win special teams, and the big key is have the advantage in the turnover battle. Take the Texans on the spread.

The Chicago Bears collapsed in a prime time spot on Monday, and now have to show resolve in a six day turn around against the Lions. Close game losses typically resulted in blowouts last season for the Bears in the following game. Look for the culture change under Ben Johnson to have an impact at least in terms of the spread. Chicago has had short term success against the Lions as well, in three out of the last four matchups they have either won or lost by five points or fewer. Grab the points here.

The San Francisco 49ers have a big microscope on them in week one. Their quarterback in Brock Purdy has had a knack of raising his game in Seattle. In his career he is 3-0 there, and has put on a clinic with big game performances. A rare spot where the 49ers are small favorites, proves beneficial. Take the 49ers in week one over Seattle.

Sometimes a key number is all it takes to get a cover in the NFL. Jacksonville was a team last year that wins and losses were so close. Nine of their losses were by five points or less. Carolina has a young roster that showed flashes of success last season. I’m expecting a tight game where we possibly see a walk off field goal for the win. Grab the points here with Carolina.

We have seen two divisional underdogs start the season off with covers. Washington as sizeable favorites will see a different level New York Giants team. Still, I anticipate the Commanders playing at the Giants level for the first half, before making the key plays to get past the number. The NFL is always outlier plays, and we saw this last year with Malik Nabers dropping a key fourth down ball, and an abundance of costly plays. Take the Commanders on the spread.

The LA Chargers were in both games last season against the Kansas City Chiefs. They lost after having a 10-0 Sunday night prime time lead, and also had another close loss late in the season. The Chiefs dynasty is far from over, but winning at the rate they did last season is not sustainable. Look for the Chargers to do what Dallas did against Philadelphia, and hang around a divisional opener to begin the season. Take LA plus the points. 

The Buffalo Bills for the fourth time in the last five seasons will get their shot on knocking off the Kansas City Chiefs. Unlike years past Josh Allen has put an emphasis on protecting the football, which has led to a career low in interceptions. The Bills with Josh Allen have four capable runners with James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis. Expect the Bills to build on their regular season blue print which was a near ten minute time of possession advantage over the Chiefs. Grab the Bills in the AFC Championship.

For years the Ravens have faltered and not been able to get over the hump in the postseason with Lamar Jackson under center. That burden now has strong support with the addition of Derrick Henry. Henry’s playoff ability to sway a team we have seen before with the Titans, ending Tom Brady’s Patriots career, beating the Ravens, and helping build a 17-7 lead in the AFC championship on the Chiefs. His hunger combined and skill put the Ravens past the Bills and onto the AFC championship.

A wild card team that gets hot at the right time, usually gets that redemption game in the postseason. For the LA Rams they get that chance today on the road at Philadelphia. An Eagles team that routed the Rams on their own home field in front of a Sunday night football audience, 37-20. Since that performance the defense has excelled, and Sean McVay has put on a masterclass of preparation. Take the Rams to put forth another great effort even in cold weather snow conditions in Philadelphia.

The Kansas City Chiefs had their most regular season wins in the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era, but it was also their lowest regular season point differential with Mahomes at quarterback. That speaks to how close most of their wins were. Off a bye teams can be slow out the gate. Houston is a common opponent from December 21st, that can adjust quicker to what they see in-game today. Look for the game to be played similar to their December matchup, which would give us the edge on the Texans. Grab the points with Houston.

At the end of the season there is value to be had on low win teams. We’ve seen the Raiders, Giants, and Jaguars win last week. Jacksonville accomplished the task of defeating the Tennessee Titans twice, and now can do the same against the Indianapolis Colts. A game back in week five that was the Jaguars first win of the season, and not as close as the final score suggested. Indianapolis got some late big plays to make the game close. Take the Jaguars to continue to show some pride to close out the season plus the points.

Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders incredible season featured yet another thrilling final drive from their rookie quarterback in last week’s victory over Philadelphia. Still, the Commanders have been playing with fire over their last couple of matchups. The Saints nearly walked them off on a two point conversion, and the Eagles were in command last week. Atlanta has new energy on both sides of the football with the quarterback move to Michael Penix. Take the Falcons to show that fire on the road.

Cooper Rush’s adaptability has been remarkable as Dallas has won four out of their last five games. But now the Cowboys will be without their big play receiver in Ceedee Lamb. The Eagles will also be able to game plan for Cooper Rush for a second time the season, the first team to be able to against Rush. They limited him and the Cowboys to just six points on November 10th. Even with Kenny Pickett as the starter grab the Eagles to roll.

On a short week the Las Vegas Raiders will host the Jacksonville Jaguars. After ten straight losses expect the Raiders to take out their frustrations against the Jaguars. They have regained some starters and will have Aiden O’Connell back under center. Jacksonville also has incentive to lose to be tied with the Raiders for fewest wins in the NFL. Take the Raiders to end their ten game losing streak.

Towards the end of the season it’s rare but there are cases of poor teams finishing strong. The New York Jets may have a 4-10 record, but they have been in position to win a majority of games. After finally breaking through against the Jaguars, look for the Jets to show some confidence against the Rams. This is a pressure spot for LA to maintain in the NFC West in a cold environment. Take the Jets plus the points.

The Tennessee Titans struggles this season have been hard to watch. Two weeks ago they fell to the Jaguars at home, and last week were blown out with Will Levis struggling once again. Mason Rudolph will get the start and this is an opportunity for the Titans as the Colts have a predictable offense with Tony Richardson’s struggles. Grab the points here with the Titans. 

The LA Chargers are a team that has changed their team identity with the loss of JK Dobbins. They have to win ugly, and rely more on their defense. It’s worked in low scoring games and covers against the Chiefs and Falcons. Expect the cross country travel to effect the Buccaneers offense to a degree. Baker Mayfield has had turnover issues with fumbles and four interceptions over his last two games. He’s also taken a lot of hits with twelve sacks over his last five games. Lay it with the Chargers.

The Kansas City Chiefs are one of the top conundrums of the season. Somehow they have a 12-1 record that has featured a bevy of close wins. Each of their last four victories has been by three points or fewer. They’ve also failed to cover in seven straight games. Take the Browns to give the Chiefs their latest battle and possibly even win outright. Grab the points with the home underdog.

The Jets continue to find ways to lose, but last week they outplayed the Miami Dolphins for the majority of the game. The offense moved the football well, and defensively they limited Miami to field goals until late in the second half. After consecutive weeks of covers for the Jaguars look for the team to have trouble outside the division. Lay the points with the Jets.

The Carolina Panthers market has been fascinating to watch and grow with quarterback Bryce Young’s transformation. The market has flipped from steep underdogs to being a favorite for the first time in three years. Dallas I do believe is going to limit the Panthers offense, but their defense is also going to be able to handle Cooper Rush. Rush has been inaccurate at times and not a reliable quarterback in second halves. Tail the Panthers as favorites. 

The Cincinnati Bengals are 4-8 on the season but one bright spot has been they are 3-0 SU and ATS when favored on the road. They had wins and covers against the Browns, Giants, and Panthers. They also have experience traveling on the road to Dallas with Cooper Rush at quarterback losing two seasons ago. Look for the Bengals to ramp up their play and get their fifth win of the season. Lay it -5.

There probably was not a team that played well, and still lost last week like the Arizona Cardinals. They controlled the game against Minnesota for almost the entirety, before a collapse in the fourth quarter. I expect a bit of a letdown early on against a Seattle team that defeated them two weeks ago. Additionally, the Seahawks defense limited Arizona to just six points in the win, and scored a defensive touchdown. Grab the points with Seattle.

The Jacksonville Jaguars showed a spark offensively late with Mac Jones at quarterback. The surge was enough to get a backdoor cover at home against the Houston Texans. Tennessee has showed some improvements over the recent weeks, which included a road win over the top team in the division in the Houston Texans. At home though they have yet to cover. Expect that trend to continue against the Jaguars.

The LA Rams had one of the worst defensive efforts when it comes to run defense on the season in the NFL. Saquon Barkley had a career game and got what he wanted each carry. Right before their bye week the Saints did the same to the Cleveland Browns with a Taysom Hill package. Yet, expect the Rams to force Derek Carr to have to beat them, who still has been lacking consistent halves of football. Grab the Rams in a bounce back spot.

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the few teams in the NFL that season could be vastly different. They started off 0-3, including a one point loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. They had two games against the Ravens that were winnable as well. Look for the Bengals to come out with expected heightened play post their bye week. As tough as it is for Mike Tomlin and Pittsburgh to lose consecutive games, the book is now out on Russ Wilson and the new look Steelers offense. Play the Bengals.

Since 2021, in Lamar Jackson’s career following a loss after week two and beyond the Ravens are 8-0. That’s certainly factored into the spread along with last year’s 20-10 Sunday night prime time win over the Chargers. For years, the narrative was the Chargers were a coach away from getting to the next level with poor losses under Brandon Staley. Under Coach Harbaugh we are seeing that, and like many instances this year with the Steelers/Cardinals we are seeing a home team on a winning streak devalued ATS. Tail the Chargers.

The forgotten team when it comes to the NFC West discussions are the Seattle Seahawks. They had lost five of six games prior to their bye week, and escaped with a final second win last week over the San Francisco 49ers. They now have new life and a chance to take the division lead. Arizona is a team they have defeated five straight times, and have not lost to against in the Geno Smith era. Back the Seahawks.

The Las Vegas Raiders six game losing streak began with a loss to the Denver Broncos in week five. Gardner Minshew was one of the main reasons for the loss, as he threw an ill-advised throw that led to a 100 yard pick six to tie the game at ten. It led to his benching, but there have been changes to the Raiders. Scott and Norv Turner added some life to the offense. Grab the Raiders to be sparked in the second matchup against Denver

The New England Patriots struggles against the Miami Dolphins in their first matchup, is why they shifted from veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett to rookie Drake Maye. Miami has been much more dynamic on offense with Tua, but are still vulnerable ATS at home. They needed a late broken play touchdown to get their first home cover of the season against the Las Vegas Raiders. Grab the Patriots on a spread that is a couple of points to high.

Jameis Winston gets to have some stability and a chance to settle in this year with the Cleveland Browns. It’s the first time since 2021 that he will start his fourth straight game. Pittsburgh, has went 6-1 in the division over the last two seasons. The one loss was to Cleveland, and frankly they were fortunate to win the other game on a scoop and score deciding touchdown by TJ Watt. Grab the points with Cleveland.

All signs appear that Kirk Cousins will give it a go Sunday against the Denver Broncos. Denver returns home after nearly ending the Kansas City Chiefs undefeated season. As great as they played offensively they were quiet after an early 14-3 lead. The prior week they also struggled in a blowout loss to Baltimore. Take Atlanta which even with a less than 100 percent Kirk Cousins is one of the more potent offenses in football.

The Chicago Bears have sustained three straight losses, and now will face a Packers team that has owned them. Additionally, the Packers are coming in with extra time to prepare off their bye week. Still, the Packers have had weaknesses offensively in the division this year with two of their three losses. On the first over adjustment on a Bears spread all season, take the value with the home underdog.

Sunday, there is no doubt that the Pittsburgh Steelers will have success offensively against the Ravens poor secondary that ranks last in the NFL. The question is can they consistently keep up with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense for four quarters on a small spread. With Baltimore having the rest advantage look for that to be the difference in the second half.

The Chicago Bears felt the effects of losing on a Hail Mary last week in Arizona. They were flat on both sides of the football, and just did not show any energy. Now from the coaches to the players this is a pressure spot where they have to respond against the Patriots. As great as Drake Maye game ending play was against the Titans, he did not perform well with four sacks and two interceptions. Take the Bears to do enough to cover the near touchdown spread.

After seven straight losses the Saints have moved on from Dennis Allen. Sunday’s matchup against the Falcons presents a rematch the Saints arguably should of won earlier in the season. Atlanta failed to get into the end zone offensively, in what was a back and forth contest. Expect the Saints to show some life after an embarrassing road loss last week to Carolina. Play the Saints.

The Arizona Cardinals have suddenly found themselves atop the NFC West. Over their last two games they have found a way to pull out close wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Miami Dolphins. Look for the Bears to shake off an embarrassing finish against Washington last week, and pull together on both sides of the football. Take the Bears plus the points.

A team that will continue to present big numbers spread wise are the Las Vegas Raiders. They have been decimated with a talent decline that started with the departure of DaVante Adams, and they have also been dinged up at the tailback position. Yet, they still give a solid effort on the defensive side of the football which should present challenges for a Bengals offense that is winless at home. Tail the road team here in the Raiders plus the points.

The New England Patriots are coming off a shocking upset win at home over the New York Jets. Now they will travel on the road against a Tennessee Titans team that has shown flashes of solid play over the last two weeks. They hung around in the first half against the Buffalo Bills, and also did some nice things offensively against the Detroit Lions. Look for the Titans to finally put it together in an advantageous spot against the Patriots.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are still a long ways away from the team they were a season ago. Yet, perhaps they found some new wrinkles offensively in Europe. Running back Tank Bigsby has proven he should be the feature running back, and rookie wide receive Brian Thomas Jr. continues to develop. With the Packers they have had extended travel this season to Brazil, Los Angeles, and now Jacksonville. Look for the Jags to perform well as they did after Europe last season against Indianapolis.

The Houston Texans are returning from two outdoor away games against the Patriots and Pacers. Returning home they will face an Indianapolis Colts team that has played them close the last three matchups. Anthony Richardson as sporadic as his play can be, has looked comfortable against the Texans last season and this year in which he led the Colts to a backdoor cover. Texans win, but Colts cover this aggressive number.

One of the toughest tasks for teams in sports is that first game at home after a lengthy road trip. That is the case for a Buffalo Bills team that has had issues with its offense lately. Josh Allen was just nine for thirty two starts ago against the Houston Texans, and last week scored just three second half points against the Jets. Take Tennessee that just needs a serviceable game from Mason Rudolph.

The Seattle Seahawks travel to Atlanta with a bevy of injuries. Yet, they still have one of the more octane offenses in football led by quarterback Geno Smith. Atlanta may have won four games in a row, but at home they have struggled in close calls. They failed to cover their first three home games against Pittsburgh, Kansas City, and the Saints. The lone cover was an overtime thriller against Tampa Bay. Take the value here with Seattle needing to end a three game losing streak.

The Denver Broncos have rolled off three straight wins, including last week’s blowout over the Las Vegas Raiders. Sunday’s game should be much different as the Chargers are coming out of a bye week. They’ll also be hungry to end a two game skid. With any rookie quarterback there are going to be highs and lows. Look for the Chargers to be prepared to limit Bo Nix effectiveness. Take the Chargers.

The New Orlean Saints find themselves on a short week against a Buccaneers team coming off a Thursday game. On top of that, they are going to be starting a rookie fifth round quarterback in Spencer Rattler. Look for the Saints to rely on their defense and have enough in the arsenal to move the ball with Rattler. The defense sparked the Saints in an upset late in the season during the Buccaneers four game win streak. Grab the home underdog here in the Saints.

The Kansas City Chiefs remain one of two teams left that are undefeated. With all their injuries on the offensive side of the football, it has caused the offense to look average. On top of that Patrick Mahomes has just six touchdowns to five interceptions. Yet, this Chiefs team showed in their Super Bowl run last year that they don’t need their offense to be elite to get wins and covers. Look for the defense to set their offense with manageable drives and keep the Saints offense in check.  Take the Chiefs as the favorite.

The Las Vegas Raiders have turmoil within the organization once again. It was this time a season ago that the falling out was nearing an end with Josh McDaniels. Antonio Pierce and the Raiders got away with a win last week against the Browns despite a poor first quarter down 10-0, and a fourth quarter they were completely outplayed. That plays into the hand of Sean Payton that has his team prepared for a four quarter battle. Take the home team here with the Broncos.

Sunday offers a buy low spot on the Jacksonville Jaguars. Who had opportunities in last week’s loss to Houston, and afterwards Doug Peterson took some heat. Often times we see a veteran backup quarterback come in and succeed. Joe Flacco did so filling in for Anthony Richardson in last week’s win over Pittsburgh, but getting a start is entirely different. Take Jacksonville as they get their first win of the season and cover at home.

The Minnesota Vikings have jumped out to a 4-0 season record, as underdogs in three of the four matchups. Now they find themselves as the biggest favorites they have been this season against the Jets in London. This should be an all out battle, but look for the way that the Vikings finished their game against the Packers to have lingering effects. For the first time they looked vulnerable as they barely held on after a four touchdown lead. Take the Jets to cover the small number.

The Cincinnati Bengals truthfully could be a 3-0 team. They were in position to win all three of their games against the Patriots, Chiefs, and last week’s loss against the Commanders. The offense has to help their struggling defense by turning drives from field goals to touchdowns. Often times we see veteran backups step in at the quarterback position and ignite their team in their first start before a big swing the other direction. Take the Bengals to pick up their first win of the season and cover.

The New Orleans Saints must recover after a poor showing offensively in last week’s home loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. With a bevy of injuries on both sides of the football the game plan is going to center on their defense. Atlanta is already 0-2 at home and there seems to be a lack of synergy to finish out a game. Take the Saints to manage through their injuries against the Falcons.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have the daunting task of traveling on the road once again after Monday’s blowout loss to Buffalo. The good news is they will be playing a divisional rival in the Houston Texans. It’s actually the last win Trevor Lawrence had under center back in November of 2023. Look for the offense to perform better without a ballooned deficit to work out of. Take the points with the Jaguars.

Over Trevor Lawrence’s last seven starts the Jaguars are winless. But this creates a value spot on an over reaction. Jacksonville was still in both of their games thanks to their defense, in two close losses. Additionally, Jacksonville excelled in last year’s London 25-20 win over Buffalo. The defense limited the Bills to just twenty nine rushing yards, and Trevor Lawrence had one of this two 300 yard passing games on the season. Grab the points with Jacksonville.

Detroit is fortunate they are not 0-2 on the season. Sometimes getting on the road for the first time can help alleviate some of the early season rust. Detroit gets to face an Arizona Cardinals team that is coming off their most lopsided victory since the 2016 season. Sell high spot here on the Cardinals, as the Lions gut out a tough road win in Arizona.

Tampa Bay’s start to the season has featured two strong performances over Washington and Detroit. Washington featured a rookie quarterback in his first start, and Tampa Bay had familiarity in their third matchup against Detroit in the past year. As poor as Denver has played offensively, they have lost both their games by a touchdown or less. Look for Denver to fight once again and get a road cover at Tampa.

Pittsburgh showed their defensive might in week one on the road against Atlanta. The offense did not have to show much, and now will have to go on the road for a second consecutive week. Denver’s rookie quarterback Bo Nix did not have a good first game, but stuck with it and got the Broncos into the end zone on their final drive. Take Denver at home to clean up the offense and battle defensively against the Steelers.

The Detroit Lions will be sizable favorites every week, and showed that with an enormous line move before Sunday night football last week. Now instead of a 3.5 point favorite they have ballooned double the number against Tampa Bay. This is a rare spot I don’t mind backing the big number. This is the third matchup between the Lions and Buccaneers over the last two seasons, and Tampa Bay has always been an untrustworthy team off a big win. Lay it with the Lions

The New York Jets throughout most of the summer were +5.5 against San Francisco, now we have seen the number bounce around to 3.5,  now back to 4.5. This is a key number to grab early in the AM as this likely will come down again. This is a 49ers team similar to Cincinnati that has had distractions with their premier wide receiver in Brandon Aiyuk, tackle in Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffrey is dinged up going into the season. Not to mention Brock Purdy was shaky in the preseason. Take the Jets plus the points.

The Washington Commanders are another team that have a new Coach in Dan Quinn and a new OC with Kliff Kingsbury. They got their rookie quarterback with Jaylen Daniels who is going to bring a versatile element that’s unexpected week one. Expect the Commanders to be ready on both sides of he football from a prep stand point. Take the Commanders. 

I’m a proponent of backing a team with a new coach. For the LA Chargers they not only brought in John Harbaugh as coach, but they shifted a lot of personnel. No longer is Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Still defensively, they’ve had success against the Raiders including Khalil Mack having a monster sack game. Take the Chargers as Harbaugh comes out victorious on the small number

The Chicago Bears have heightened new expectations even with a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams. Last year the Tennessee Titans were one of the more frustrating teams because of their inability to compete in second halves. That’s a trait I don’t expect Will Levis to shake in week one against a strong Bears defense. Take the Bears to win by four points or more.

The Minnesota Vikings have veteran Sam Darnold leading the team with rookie JJ McCarthy out for the year. With all the issues the Vikings had the second half of the season at the quarterback position, the Vikings could be getting decreased attention from oddsmakers in week one. The New York Giants will be better than most anticipate offensively, but expect the rust to show for Daniel Jones who is as turnover prone as any starter in football. Take the Vikings.

Most of the week I was leaning towards the Rams side. But something about home field advantage typically carries over in the postseason. We saw this in both of yesterday’s postseason openers. On a small number I trust the Detroit potent offense to push the football down the field on a young Rams defense. Close game but Detroit cashes ATS.

With the Jaguars trailing at halftime now is where I see a bit more value on the Buffalo Bills side. Even with the Bills likely to be in with a Jags loss, they still want the momentum of closing out their season strong. Additionally, they could win the division with a win over Miami. Grab the Bills.

We have seen two scenarios so far where resting starters has led to an easy victory for the opposition. We saw Pittsburgh pull away from Baltimore, and Cincinnati blow out Cleveland. With Kansas City, I expect a different outcome. Blaine Gabbert is a long time veteran, and the Chiefs have filled their roster with complimentary players versus a couple of stars. Grab the Chiefs.

Kevin O’Connell has got a few wins simply by rotating quarterbacks. It started with Josh Dobbs, and although they did not win Nick Mullens had success with the offense. Look for Hall to have similar success but to cut out the turnovers. Green Bay is thin in their skill positions. Take the Vikings to complete the season sweep over Green Bay.

Buy the half point on the market here with the Saints. I’ve been big on the Buccaneers during their hot streak, but facing a divisional opponent is where team weaknesses can be exposed. The Bucs needed a last minute touchdown to escape in a recent win over the Falcons, and I believe they’ll be in for a true battle Sunday. Take the points on a sell high spot after Tampa Bay’s blowout over Jacksonville.

New England’s season of high losses is likely to to continue tonight against Denver. Yet, I think the spread is to high here. New England has been a bit better defensively, and Russ Wilson is showing a bit of an end of season slide. Take the points here with the Patriots.

Jacksonville has been dynamite on the road with a 5-1 record, but they did lose at Cleveland and are on a three game losing streak. Tampa Bay has opened up the offense a bit more and Baker Mayfield surprisingly has found a home. Jacksonville may get the early lead here but look for Tampa Bay’s strong end of season to continue. Take the Bucs.

Buffalo has taken care of business on their home field this season. Their issues have been on the road and in Europe. While Dallas projects as the better team I see this as a spot where the Bills continue their push. Look for their new way of grinding out wins to payoff as they handle the Cowboys. Grab Buffalo.

Late in the season we see teams start to over acheive for the following season. The Tennessee Titans could be in that boat with quarterback Will Levi. Houston has had issues with their own quarterback injuries, and depth issues. Take the Titans even on a short week Sunday.

Post bye week I expect the Vikings to have corrected issues with quarterback Josh Dobbs, who is still adjusting after being traded. The Vegas Raiders are going to also have success but this boils down to the Vikings being in a must win situation. Look for Coach O'Connell to utilize his tail backs more and get the play making needed to pull out the win. Grab the Vikings.

Quick write up here but the Bears strength on stopping the run should limit a Lions team offensively. Justin Fields tends to have some of his better games through the air in the division as well. Take the home underdog in the Bears.

To be down to an emergency starting quarterback in Joe Flacco is a rare site in the NFL. The veteran will step in for a team that did not do well offensively as a small road underdog last week against the Broncos. Still, this is a team that has managed to overcome a lot and has not folded multiple weeks in a row. Take the Browns plus the points. 

It is common knowledge that Arizona does not want to win as they try and keep their chances high for a top draft pick. Traveling to face a Pittsburgh team that is rejuvenated offensively is a tricky spot. Still, I expect a good effort more to the tune of what we saw a couple of weeks ago against Houston. Take the big number underdog Cardinals here.