Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-02-18 | Rhode Island +2.5 v. Davidson | Top | 61-63 | Win | 100 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +2.5 over Davidson, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - On CBS Sports Network URI had their most embarrassing performance of the season on Tuesday night. The best team in the A10, who already had the #1 seed clinched heading into Tuesday’s Senior night, was blasted at home by St Joes 78-48 as 13.5 point favorite. After the game Ram’s head coach Danny Hurley didn’t mince words. “Disappointed in this group of guys going out that way in their last home game,” Hurley said. “Brutal night. We’ve got to respond quickly.” You can bet the best team by a long shot in this conference (full 2 game lead even with the loss) will come to play on Friday night. Now add in the fact they are an underdog and you know this team will have a chip on their shoulder. They are catching Davidson in a great spot here. That’s because the Wildcats played in a huge game on Tuesday night battling St Bonnies on the road for 2nd place. The game went to triple OT (Davidson lost 117-113) , didn’t end until almost 1:00 AM ET, and 3 of Davidson’s starters played 50+ minutes in the game. The Wildcat’s are already a thin team (321st nationally in bench minutes) that basically plays a 7 man rotation. Now they must turn around after that extra physical & emotional road battle and play a deep team who’s seniors (5 senior starters) will be out for blood. URI (23-5 overall & 15-2 in the A10) is a physical team who is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Atlantic 10 in turnovers forced which is a bad match up for a tired team playing their 3rd game in 6 days. Davidson shot 49% from the field in their first meeting and still lost by 13. URI bounce back with a big performance and gets a road win. |
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03-02-18 | Michigan v. Nebraska +4.5 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +4.5 over Michigan, Friday at 2:30 PM ET The Huskers should absolutely be the fresher team here as they did not play yesterday while the Wolverines were pushed to OT by Iowa. Michigan relies more heavily on the 3 pointer than any other team in the Big Ten with 38% of their points coming from deep (most in the conference). Thus when they don’t shoot it well from deep they can be in a bit of trouble. That happened on Thursday when they hit only 3 of 19 from beyond the arc and were almost taken down by an Iowa team that was just 4-14 in league play. The problem for Michigan in this one is they now face the best team in the Big Ten at defending the arc. Nebraska allows just 29% from deep (#1 in the Big Ten) and they also rank 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency. It’s a bad match up for Michigan. In their lone meeting this year the Huskers held the Wolverine shooters to just 4 of 18 from 3 point land and cruised to an easy 20 point win. Nebraska is also playing for their NCAA lives. They are a true bubble team and need to win this game and probably one more to have any chance to make the Big Dance. They are red hot coming into this tournament winning 8 of their last 9 games and we like them to keep this close throughout. And if it is close as we expect, Michigan’s 65% FT shooting (334th nationally) will come into play. Nebraska wins this one. |
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03-01-18 | Troy State v. Georgia State -7.5 | Top | 83-70 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Georgia State -7.5 over Troy, Thursday at 7:15 PM ET We went against Georgia State on Saturday as UT Arlington won a big game for us beating GSU 89-81. It was a perfect set up for an undervalued UTA team and facing GSU coming off a big road win. Now we get the Panthers in a great spot off that loss on Saturday. They need one more win to clinch 2nd place in the Sun Belt and they’ll get it here. They are 10-2 at home but could easily be undefeated as their two home losses both game in OT. The Panthers gave Sun Belt regular season champ UL Lafayette (15-1 Sun Belt record) their only conference loss of the season here and they did it handily winning by 14 points. Troy has won 5 of their last 7 coming into this game, however they’ve had a very favorable schedule playing at home in 5 of those 7 games. The Trojans have just 2 road wins in Sun Belt play and one of those game in OT. Georgia State has some extra motivation here as well after blowing a 20 point 2nd half lead @ Troy in a 68-66 loss. They shot just 39% in that game and their 66 points was their 2nd lowest offensive output of the conference season. Expect a bounceback here as this GSU team is the best shooting team in the Sun Belt ranking #1 in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%. GSU is happy to be back at home for the first time since Feb 10th after a 3 game road trip and off a road loss we think they roll up an easy win here. |
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02-28-18 | Fordham v. George Washington -9 | Top | 56-72 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* George Washington -9 over Fordham, Tuesday at 7:00 PM ET GW is just 6-10 in Atlantic 10 play, but they are playing much better than their record right now. The Colonials are actually playing as if they are one of the better teams in the conference right now. They have won 4 of their last 6 games with their 2 losses both coming on the road @ SLU and @ George Mason. Their last 3 home games have all be blowout wins as they rolled Richmond 103-77, crushed VCU 80-56 and topped LaSalle 80-69. All three of those opponents are far superior to GW’s foe on Wednesday. Over their last 5 games George Washington is shooting 50% from the field while allowing their opponents to hit only 39% of their shots. Fordham ranks as the worst team in the conference. They have been terrible on the road with a 1-9 record. Their road losses have come by margins of 24, 22, 17, 16, 13, 13, 12, 10 and 8 points. Thus only one of their road losses have come by single digits. The Rams are 9-19 on the year and they have a grand total of ONE win vs a team ranked inside the top 200 and that was a win over Duquesne who ranks 193rd. The Rams are a terrible offensive team averaging 62 PPG while ranking dead last in the A10 in both offensive efficiency and 3 point FG%. On top of that they are one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation ranking last in the conference in BOTH offensive and defensive rebounding. Fordham is obviously a bad team with really nothing to play for in their final road game. We’re sure their home finale this weekend vs VCU is probably the game they are looking forward to. On top of that the Rams have been a money burner covering just 7 of their last 26 games! On the other hand, GW is playing their home finale here and playing well. You know they will play hard here and we expect this one will get ugly. |
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02-28-18 | Illinois v. Iowa | Top | 87-96 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois (pick-em) over Iowa, Wednesday at 5:30 PM ET We like the way the Illini are playing down the stretch. This team started the Big Ten season 0-8 but finished their final 10 games with a 4-6 record. Over their final 4 games besides their big loss @ Michigan State, they beat a very good Nebraska team, won by double digits at Rutgers, and lost a tight game vs Purdue. Over those four games they’ve really started to hit their groove from beyond the arc averaging 9 triples per game. That should continue here as they face an Iowa defense that is among the worst in the nation at defending the arc (308th nationally and last in the Big Ten). The Illini also have limited their turnovers down the stretch coughing it up only 7 times per game. They should have a huge advantage in that key stat in this game as Illinois forces more turnovers than any other team in the Big Ten and Iowa turns the ball over more than any other team in the conference. As expected with teams that are seeded 12th and 13th in the Big Ten, neither was good on the road. Both finished with identical 1-10 road records, however the Illini were at least competitive away from home for the most part with 8 of their 10 losses coming by 10 or less. The same cannot be said for Iowa who had 8 road losses by more than 10 points and 6 of those were by at least 15 points. The Illini should have a little extra motivation here as well as they blew a 20 point lead vs Iowa in early January year and lost in OT. It was their only meeting of the year and it was a miracle that Illinois was even able to stay in they game, much less blow a huge lead and lose in OT with Iowa’s huge edge at the FT line (40 FT attempts for Iowa to 14 for Illinois – Hawkeyes were +22 FT’s made in the game). Illinois beat Rutgers on the road on Sunday and they were able to stay in NYC all week to get ready for this game which we feel is an advantage as well. We like Illinois to win and move on. |
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02-27-18 | Boise State v. San Diego State -3 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego State -3 over Boise State, Tuesday at 11 PM ET - On CBS Sports Network This is a must win for San Diego State as they are battling Wyoming for the 5th seed in the MWC tourney and that is key as the top 5 seeds get a bye. The Aztecs need to win this game and then close out the season with a win at home over Nevada and hope Wyoming loses one of their final 2 games. Boise, on the other hand, is already locked into the #2 seed for the upcoming conference tournament. We are handicapping this game as if the Aztecs Malik Pope will not play. He was suspended for their previous game @ San Jose but is back practicing and his status tonight is up in the air. If he does play it’s simply a bonus. SDSU is playing their best basketball right now winning 4 straight including double digit home wins over two of the better teams in the MWC (UNLV & Wyoming). They have lost just 1 game at home in conference play and that was a 4 point setback to Fresno and the Aztecs blew a double digit 2nd half lead in that game. Their scoring margin at home is +21 PPG which is easily the best in the conference. Boise has just 4 MWC losses this year however 3 of those have come on the road to Nevada, Utah State, and Wyoming. These two met earlier this season in Boise where the Broncos are nearly unbeatable. However, SDSU gave them a run in that game losing by just 3 points in a game that was tied at 77 with under 2:00 minutes left in the game. In that game BSU star Chandler Hutchison scored 44 points, the Broncos made 55% of their shots including 14 of 28 from beyond the arc and still held on for dear life late. We don’t foresee BSU putting up those offensive numbers on the road here which leads to a San Diego State win and cover at home tonight. |
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02-22-18 | Georgia Southern v. Texas-Arlington -5 | Top | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* UT Arlington -5 over Georgia Southern, Thursday at 8:00 PM ET This UTA team has definitely underachieved this year. They came into the season as one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt but they are just 7-8 in conference play. The main reason for that is their poor showings on the road where they are just 1-7 in conference play. Their only home loss in the Sun Belt was to Louisiana Lafayette who is the top team in the league a full 3 games ahead of 2nd place Georgia State. The Mavericks have been great at home over the last few years going 38-5 here at College Park Center. Arlington is led by NBA prospect Kevin Hervey who is among the best few players in the Sun Belt. The Mavericks are also bolstered by the return of one of their top players Kaelon Wilson who missed some games in early February but has returned and this will be his 3rd game (first home game) he’s been back in the lineup. Head coach Scott Cross eased Wilson back in game one of their recent 2 game road trip and then played him 32 minutes in their most recent game @ conference leader ULL. He’ll be a full go tonight. Speaking of that game vs ULL, the Mavs were embarrassed 100-79. Their defense was terrible and you can expect a much better effort at home vs Georgia Southern. The Eagles are 8-6 in conference play sitting just ahead of UTA. They are coming off a huge home win vs their arch rival Georgia State so it could be tough to duplicate the emotion they put into that game. They also beat UTA at home earlier this year 74-59. The stats were pretty even in the game except at the FT line where Southern was +10. Different scenario here with Arlington at home where they’ve been outstanding. UTA is 13-4 ATS their last 17 games following an ATS loss while Georgia Southern is 3-12-1 ATS their last 15 following an ATS win. This one sets up nicely as the Mavericks are a dangerous team when at home and when motivated. They have both going for them tonight and we’ll side with Texas Arlington. |