#702 ASA PLAY ON Houston +1.5 over Florida, Monday at 8:50 PM ET - We think the better team is the dog here and we’ll grab the Cougars in this match up. What a run they’ve had beating Gonzaga, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke in the NCAA, all top 15 teams per KenPom and 3 of those were top 8 teams. Houston beat the best team in the country (per KenPom) on Saturday holding the 4th best shooting team in the nation a full 10% below their season average (Duke shot 40% vs Houston). Duke was averaging 1.30 PPP (#1 in the country) and the Cougars D (ranked #1 in efficiency) held the Devils to only 1.10 PPP. The Florida offense is very good as well, but they don’t shoot it nearly as well as Duke ranking outside the top 50 in FG% and outside the top 90 in 3 point FG%. The Gators offense averaged only 1.10 PPP vs Auburn on Saturday and they’ve now been held below their season PPP average in 5 of their last 6 games. Now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve faced this season. The Gators have had a problem with turnovers offensively this season, including in the NCAA tourney where they coughed it up 18%, 18%, 23%, 17% and 22% of their possessions in their 5 NCAA tourney games. None of the defensive units they’ve faced create turnovers like this Houston team does (24th nationally). In a close game, those extra possessions for Houston could be the difference. On the other end of the court, the Cougs can shoot it. It’s not discussed as often as their defense, but this team ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. They faced 2 top 5 defenses in their last 2 games (Duke & Tennessee) and made 19 of their 47 triples (40.4%) vs those 2 teams. They averaged 1.17 PPP and 1.15 PPP in those 2 games vs defenses (both top 5 defensive efficiency) that are both rated higher than this Florida team. The Gators often have a positive shot volume due to their offensive rebounding (5th in the country) but we feel that will be offset by the Cougars who are great on the offensive glass as well (10th in the country). This Houston team will again be playing with a chip on their shoulder as they’ve been tabbed an underdog again in the National Championship game after getting points in the Final 4 as well. They’ve only been an underdog twice since the start of the 2022 season and won both of those games outright (vs Duke & Kansas). They have won 18 straight games, 3 of their 4 losses this season have come in OT, and they have 1 loss since December 7th and that was in OT by 1 point vs a very good Texas Tech team. We like the coaching match up as well with veteran Kelvin Sampson (coaching in his 51st NCAA tourney game) vs newcomer Todd Golden (coaching in his 8th NCAA tourney game). Sampson outcoached Jon Sheyer and Duke on Saturday and we like his chances to do the same on Monday night. Let’s take Houston to win it all.

#679/680 ASA PLAY ON Under 137 Points – Houston vs Duke, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - These 2 met in the Sweet 16 last season and it was a 56 possession grinder with Duke coming out on top 54-51.  While we don’t expect the scoring to be that low in this one, we still anticipate a low possession game with 2 very high level defenses that will lead to an Under in this one.  Houston ranks as the #1 defense in the nation (efficiency) and they allow only 58 PPG which is also #1 nationally.  They have held 3 of their 4 NCAA tourney opponents to 60 points or less including Purdue (7th nationally in offensive efficiency) and Tennessee (17th).  The Big 12 had 5 teams ranked in the top 20 in offensive efficiency and Houston played 9 games vs those opponents.  Only 1 topped 65 points in those 9 games and those teams averaged 61 PPG vs Houston.  We don’t expect them to hold Duke, the #1 offense in efficiency, to those numbers but we also don’t look for the Devils to go wild offensively in this one.  The Blue Devils have fantastic offensive numbers but they’ve played a very weak schedule of defensive teams this season which lends to those stats.  They haven’t faced a team in the NCAA tourney that is ranked in the top 20 in defensive efficiency and the only ACC team that ranks in the top 20 in that metric was Clemson (17th) who held the Devils to 71 points.  What doesn’t get talked about enough is how good Duke is defensively.  They rank 4th in the country in efficiency and 7th in PPG allowed (62 PPG).  They have held 3 of their 4 tourney opponents to 66 points or fewer including limiting the #1 scoring team in the country, Alabama, to only 65 points in their most recent game.  That’s the same Bama team that was averaging 91 PPG on the season and had scored 90, 80, and 113 points in their first 3 NCAA games before hitting a wall vs this Duke defense.  The Blue Devils have played 38 games this season and have allowed more than 70 points only 7 times.  As we stated, we expect a low possession game as Houston is one of the slowest paced teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and Duke is a slower paced team this season as well (268th).  Both defenses make opponents work incredibly hard for shots with Houston’s opponents getting a shot off every 18.7 seconds (12th longest in the country) and Duke’s opponents every 19 seconds (5th longest).  A tough shooting venue in the Alamo Dome and we like the Under here.

#681/682 ASA PLAY ON Under 160 Points – Auburn vs Florida, Saturday at 6 PM ET - These 2 met once this year in early February and that total was set at 156. The game was played @ Auburn and the Gators pulled off the 90-81 win pushing it Over the total. There were 74 possessions in that game but we expect a slower paced game here as most teams reign it in a bit this late in the season. Every possession is huge. These 2 have combined to average 69 possessions per game in their 8 NCAA tourney game which is below their average for the season. We don’t think this rematch gets anywhere near the 171 posted in the first game. This game is being played at the Alamo Dome which is a huge arena meant for football, not basketball. It’s a tough shooting venue which has hosted 4 other Final 4’s and the average total points scored here in those previous games was 146. Of the 12 games played in the Final 4 and National Championship game at the Alamo Dome, only 2 reached 160+ total points. These 2 defenses are elite. They both rank in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. Auburn’s offense has posted PPP numbers (offensive efficiency) below their season average for 8 consecutive games. Defensively they have not allowed more than 70 points in this tourney. The Gators have been held under their PPP season average on offense in 4 of their last 5 games but they’ve held each of their opponents in this tourney below their offensive efficiency average. Once you hit the Final 4, it’s really tough for both teams to put up big offensive numbers in a game. In fact, over the last 15 seasons, there have been 45 Final 4 & National Championship games and only FOUR have reached 160+ total points. Both teams being from the SEC, they know each other very well and we don’t think either team gets to 80 points which keeps this Under the total.

#684 ASA PLAY ON Boise State -130 over Nebraska, Saturday at 1:30 PM ET - Both teams have 2 wins in this tourney but the Huskers have been fortunate with the teams they’ve faced to date.  In their opener they faced an Arizona State team that was missing 3 of their top 6 scorers.  It took a 51% shooting effort from Nebraska to hold on for an 8 point win in a game they trailed for the majority of.  On Wednesday they faced Georgetown who was almost massively short handed down 3 starters, who are the Hoyas 3 leading scorers, who combined to average 45 PPG this season.  The Huskers finally get a full strength team in Boise State that is absolutely rolling on offense right now.  The Broncos have scored 89 and 100 points in their 2 games vs George Washington and Butler winning both easily.  Their GW game was a 30 point win and their Butler game, while a 7 point win, they were more dominant than that scoring leading by 16 late and still held a 12 point lead with 45 seconds left.  Butler’s only lead of the entire game was right out of the gate at 3-0.  Boise is one of the top rebounding teams in the country (+15 in the first 2 games) and we expect them to win the glass again here vs a Nebraska team that ranks near the bottom of the Big 10 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  Boise has the better offensive efficiency, eFG%, and FT% at 78%.  The Broncs have won 13 of their last 16 games with their only losses coming vs Colorado State (twice), who won the conference and beat Memphis in the NCAA before losing by 1 point vs Maryland, and San Diego State who also made the Big Dance.  The Huskers lost 6 of 7 entering this tournament before getting some fortunate breaks with a number of players missing from their opponents in the last 2 games.  Boise is the better team right now and at this small number we get a reasonable price on the money line which is a great value here. We’ll side with the Broncos.

#674 ASA PLAY ON UC Irvine -3.5 over Chattanooga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We faded UCI on Tuesday vs a very good UNT team and they showed some serious resolve getting down 24-9 early and battling back for a 69-67 win.  We were prepared to side with either UCI or UNT in this game no matter who they played if the line was fair.  We’re actually getting a cheap line at -3.5 as our power ratings have Irvine as a 5 point favorite on a neutral.  Chattanooga was impressive in their win on Tuesday over Loyola but they now run into a serious defense for the first time in NIT play.  They shot 52% from the field and 43% from deep vs a Rambler defense that ranks 98th in efficiency.  All 4 teams that the Mocs have faced were ranked 98th or lower in defensive efficiency and now they face a UCI defense that ranks 21st in the nation in that metric.  The best defense in the SoCon was ETSU ranked 131st so this Chattanooga offense hasn’t faced a top 98 defense since facing Indiana back on December 21st.  They had only 2 games this season (out of 37) where they faced a defense ranked in the top 90 and lost both.  Defensively, the Moccasins are at a huge disadvantage here ranking outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Both offenses shoot the ball well overall and from 3 and while Chattanooga has the better numbers, that surely has something to do with the easy defensive slate of opponents they faced this season.  In yesterday’s win, Irvine shot 50% vs a UNT defense that ranked in the top 35 in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed.  We have no doubt UCI’s offense will have success vs a porous Moc’s defense.  UCI should also have a decent advantage on the boards vs this small Chattanooga team that is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the nation.  The Anteaters should also have an advantage at the FT line where they shoot 80% as a team and they get there a lot (21st nationally in made FT’s per game).  On the other end, UCI fouls very little (7th in FT attempts by opponents) so it will be tough for the Mocs to keep up at the charity stripe.  Irvine has been the better team all year (+30 spots in KenPom) and we’ll lay it in the NIT Championship game.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Cincinnati -5.5 over UCF, Thursday at 7 PM ET - These 2 Big 12 foes met once this season and Cincy won by 10 at UCF. A few things that stood out in that game was the fact the Bearcats dominated inside making 33 of their 49 two point attempts (67%) which should take place again here as the Golden Knights are 243rd defending inside the arc. Secondly, UCF turned the ball over at a 21% rate in that home loss and we expect a solid advantage for Cincy in the turnover department again as they rank much higher offensive (lower turnover rate) and defensively (higher turnover rate). Lastly, UCF’s leading scorer in that game (and on the season) was Hall with 23 points and he has opted out of this tournament. The Knights beat Oregon State 76-75 yesterday which wasn’t overly impressive as OSU played that game without their 3 top scorers who combine to average 41 PPG on the season. The Beavers put up 75 points on 47% shooting despite missing their 3 best offensive players which is a huge concern. UCF’s defense has been poor all season (15th out of 16 Big 12 teams in defensive efficiency) and allowed Cincinnati to put up 93 points (their 2nd highest point total of the season) on 1.22 PPP in their lone meeting. The Bearcats defense is far superior (20th nationally in defensive efficiency) and on offense they are the better shooting team at 45% (173rd in the country) compared to UCF’s 42% (323rd). Central Florida has a negative FG% differential, 3 point FG% differential and PPG differential while the Bearcats are positive in all of those stats. We like Cincinnati here.

#671/672 ASA PLAY ON Under 154 Points Nebraska vs Georgetown, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - The Crown Classic had a high scoring first day with all 4 games going Over the total but evened out yesterday with a 2-2 mark to the Over. Because of day 1, the totals were getting steamed up on Tuesday and this one is set too high. Both Nebraska and Georgetown went Over in their match ups vs Arizona State and Washington State respectively. The Huskers were on pace to go way Under the total vs a fast paced ASU team when the 2 went crazy in the final minutes. They scored 32 points in the final 3 minutes of the game and with just 1:20 remaining they still only had 146 total points (ended with 164). The Huskers shot 51% for the game which is well above their season average of 45%. We don’t expect a duplicate performance vs a Hoya defense that allows opponents to shoot 42% and gives up just 69 PPG on the season. On the other end of the court, we think Georgetown will struggle offensively vs a solid Nebraska defense (42nd nationally in defensive efficiency). The Hoyas will most likely be without their top 3 scorers again in this game and playing with only 5 scholarship players. They only had 1 starter available on Monday, Malik Mack, who averaged 11 PPG on the season and he went crazy scoring 37 of their points (45% of their total points) and made 8 of 12 from deep. Mack shot 31.9% from 3 on the season and that performance from Monday won’t be duplicated here. Neither team shoots the 3 very well (240th and 267th nationally) and both teams do a good job of not sending opponents to the FT line (both top 75 in opponent FT attempts per game). Nebraska games averaged 148 total points this season while Georgetown games averaged 141. We’re getting some solid value here because of their opening round games and the way this tourney has been trending the first 8 games. Let’s take this one Under the total.

#657 ASA PLAY ON North Texas -120 over Cal Irvine, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - The NIT semifinals are being played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, home of the Butler Bulldogs. This will be Irvine’s first game away from home in the NIT so they’ve had the much easier path to this game. They topped Northern Colorado by 10 and then had 2 very tight wins at home beating Jacksonville State by 5 and UAB in OT. While UCI had 4 days off prior to their first game in the NIT AND they were able to play all home games, they caught Jacksonville State and UAB in really rough spots. JSU was playing their 5th straight game away from home and had to travel from Georgia Tech to California after beating the Jackets in their first NIT game. Not an ideal travel spot. UAB had it even worse as they faced UCI on the road for their 7th straight road game and still took the Anteaters to OT. Now we get Irvine away from home and long travel to the Midwest. They’ve played 22 of their last 25 games overall in California and their lone trip east of the Mississippi this year resulted in a 16 points loss @ Duquesne. UNT’s route to this game was more impressive. They beat 2 top 100 teams (Arkansas St and Oklahoma St) including a win @ Okie State who was 13-3 at home with their only 3 setbacks prior to losing vs UNT were vs Houston, Texas Tech, and Arizona, who all made the NCAA Sweet 16. The Anteaters want to play fast but the Mean Green will slow this game to a crawl (362 in adjusted tempo). North Texas should win the shot volume battle here as they are much better taking care of the ball and creating turnovers defensively. They are also the better offensive rebounding team so those situations should give them extra possessions. The Mean Green are also the better 3 point shooting team and defend the arc very well (17th in opponent’s 3 point FG% compared to 184th for UCI). UNT head coach is Ross Hodge is very well respected by his players and despite the fact he accepted the West Virginia job, he wanted to see this through so he is coaching them here. Listening to the players’ comments, they would love to win the NIT for him before he heads out. We like North Texas to win this game.

#650 ASA PLAY ON Butler Pick'em over Utah, Monday at 3 PM ET - Our power ratings have Butler a few spots ahead of Utah and a 1 point favorite which is dead on with what the oddsmakers believe as well.  However, we think the Bulldogs hold some key advantages which will be the difference in this game.  First of all, Utah bad FT shooting team and in what is expected to be a tight game, that can play a huge factor.  The Utes make less than 64% of their FT’s on the season (357th out of 364 teams) and on top of that they won’t get their very often as Butler fouls very little.  Bulldog opponents have scored only 13.5% of their points from the FT line this season which is the 6th lowest mark in college basketball.  So when Utah gets there, they better take advantage and they’ve proven throughout the season they struggle at doing that.  Butler, on the other hand, hits just over 74% of their FT’s and they get there a decent amount with almost 21% of their points come from the charity stripe.  They should have a solid advantage from the FT line as well as from beyond the arc.  Both teams rely fairly heavily on making 3’s (114th and 115th in percentage of points from 3) but the Bulldogs are simply better at shooting it and defending it.  They rank 43rd in the country in 3 point FG% and 49th in the country in opponents 3 point FG%.  Utah ranks 234th and 174th respectively in those 2 key stats.  Neither team has been great when away from home but the Utes have been worse with only 1 road win (road or neutral) the entire season.  They shoot less than 40% overall away from home, less than 30% from 3 and average only 64 PPG while allowed 78 PPG.  Butler has 4 road/neutral site wins on the year and much more stable right now with long time solid head coach Thad Matta at the helm.  Utah, on the other hand, just hired a new head coach, Alex Jensen, but he is on the Dallas Mavs coach staff until the end of the season while this year’s interim and now soon to be leaving, head coach Josh Eilert will be coaching in this tourney.  We like Butler to win this one on Monday afternoon.

#645/646 ASA PLAY ON Under 148.5 Points – Michigan State vs Auburn, Sunday at 5 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine all season with a 25-11 mark. We were on the Under in the MSU vs Ole Miss game on Friday which cashed and we’re jumping back on here. Both of these defenses are elite ranking 4th (MSU) and 8th (Auburn) nationally in defensive efficiency. They both defend the arc at a top 10 rate as well (MSU 2nd and Auburn 7th). Sparty is a poor 3 point shooting team (318th) and the simply don’t attempt many triples (356th in percentage of points from deep). The Tigers are better shooting from 3 but not elite (55th in the country) and MSU limits opponents to around 6 made 3’s per game. We don’t expect a ton of points from deep in this game. Both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to adjusted tempo (134th and 179th) but they’ve played at a slower pace during the tourney which is to be expected. Especially MSU who tallied only 64 possessions on Friday vs Ole Miss (who has a similar tempo to Auburn) and 65 possessions vs New Mexico who is one of the fastest paced teams in the country (7th). Sparty has allowed 62, 63, and 70 points in their 3 games in the NCAA tourney and the 70 game vs Ole Miss who made a near half court heave as time expired or they would have been at 67. Auburn has allowed just 63, 70, and 65 points in their 3 games. Michigan State’s offense has been held under their season efficiency average in 5 of their last 6 games while Auburn has been held under their offensive efficiency average in 7 straight games. Now with each offense facing a top 10 defense, we don’t think they get anywhere near their average efficiency numbers in this one. Pressure packed game to get to the Final 4 where the defenses are the best units on the court. Under is the call.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Duke -6.5 over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday and they went crazy.  They took 66 total shots from the field and a ridiculous 51 of those were from 3.  They made 25 triples (49%) which set the NCAA tourney record.  While the Crimson Tide are a solid 3 point shooting team, they aren’t great ranking 75th nationally.  We just don’t see that as a sustainable situation here vs a Duke defense that 5th nationally in efficiency (BYU was 82nd defensively).  If the Tide need to rely a huge number of 3’s again, they’re probably in trouble.  Duke dominated Arizona more than the 100-93 final score.  They led by 19 in the 2nd half before the Cats made a final push.  The Devils shot the 3 well (made 11 triples) but dominated at the rim hitting 61% of their shots inside the arc and now facing Bama defense that isn’t great defensively inside.  Duke was extremely efficient (1.41 PPP) vs a Arizona defense that compares favorably to this Alabama defense (35th and 27th respectively in defensive efficiency).  The Blue Devils were much more well rounded on offense Thursday taking 66 shots but only 19 from deep so they aren’t completely reliant on making 3’s compared to the Tide.  Duke has been the better team all season long and is the only team in the country in the top 5 both offense and defense efficiency wise.  They are in the top 10 in the country in both 2 point FG% and 3 point FG%, shoot FT’s better (79% to 72%), turn the ball over less (16th to 143rd for Bama), and they are the much better defensive rebounding team limiting 2nd chance points.  They had a huge lead vs a very good Arizona team and almost blew it.  We don’t think that happens in back to back games.  Lay it with Duke.

#638 ASA PLAY ON Houston -8 over Purdue, Friday at 10 PM ET - The only “sort of” advantage Purdue has in this game is the fact it’s being played in Indianapolis which is 70 miles from their campus. However, this game is being played in Lucas Oil Stadium, home of the Colts, and not at Gainbridge Fieldhouse (home of the Pacers) where the Big 10 tourney was located. So beyond the PU fanbase, that mitigates the home court as neither team has played here this season. The Boilers offense is predicated on the pick n roll with PG Smith and Kaufman-Renn but the problem is, Houston is by far the best PnR defense in the country. Their hard aggressive hedge with long athletes makes is very tough on opposing offenses that rely in PnR. Purdue is not great at protecting the ball and in fact they turned it over a whopping 28% of the time vs McNeese State in the round of 32. That would normally be lights out, however PU did hit 11 triples and gather 41% of their missed shots to counteract the turnovers. That won’t happen here. They will turn the ball over (Houston 18th in the nation at creating turnovers) but the Cougs are very good on the glass AND they will capitalize on the turnovers, something McNeese did not do posting a 0.91 PPP number. On the other end, Purdue’s 2 point defense is very poor (341st nationally) but they also allow a lot of 3 points attempts (262nd). That’s bad news facing a Houston offense that ranks #1 in the nation hitting 40% of their triples. Purdue has had the benefit of facing High Point and McNeese State (2 double digit seeds) to get to this point. Houston just faced vastly underseeded Gonzaga (top 10 team per KenPom) and controlled the entire game never trailing and leading by as much as 14 points. They led by 11 with only a few minutes remaining when the Zags made a late push losing by 5. Houston has lost ONE game since December 1st and that was in OT vs a very good Texas Tech team that is also in the Sweet 16. The Cougs 4 losses have all come by 5 points or less and 2 were in OT so conceivably their 31-4 record could be better. They are the much better team across the board in this game and we’ll lay it.

#635/636 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 points – Michigan State vs Mississippi, Friday at 7 PM ET - We have 2 very defensive minded coaches in this game with Izzo and Beard. Both defenses rank in the top 21 in efficiency (MSU 5th and Ole Miss 21st). MSU’s defense has been top 10 all season long. They allow just 67 PPG on the season and held Bryant to 62 points and New Mexico to 63 in their 2 tourney games. Both of those teams like to play very fast (both top 10 tempo) and have good offensive efficiency numbers and Sparty shut them down to 0.87 and 0.97 PPP. The Spartan have played 35 games this season and only 11 of those opponents topped 70 points. In their 2 tourney games, Ole Miss held a red hot UNC, who had scored at least 80 points in 7 of their previous 12 games, to just 64 points. Over the weekend the Rebs had a high scoring game vs Iowa State (91-78 final) but Ole Miss had an outlier offensive performance hitting 58% of their shots AND 58% of their 3 pointers. Even with that, the game was at 130 total points with 5:00 minutes remaining and with ISU down by double digits, they pushed the pace and the 2 teams scored 39 points from that point on. MSU shoots very few 3’s and when they do the hit only 31% (323rd nationally). On the other end, the Rebels are an OK 3 point shooting team (122nd nationally) however the Spartans are the #1 three point D in the country allowing 27.8%. Both offenses haven’t been overly efficient away from home this season with MSU averaging 1.04 PPP and Ole Miss 1.07. This game is being played at State Farm Arena, home of the Atlanta Hawks, and an unfamiliar venue to both teams which could affect shooting. MSU has been an Under juggernaut all season with a 24-11 mark and we look for another one on Friday. Both defenses allow less than 0.96 PPP on the season they are the 2 best units on the floor. Play the Under here.

#627 ASA PLAY ON BYU +5.5 over Alabama, Thursday at 7 PM ET - We think BYU has a very solid chance at winning this game outright and we like the points as a cushion if they do not. The Cougs are on quite a roll winning 11 of their last 12 games with their only loss during that stretch coming at the hands of Houston with impressive wins vs Wisconsin, Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas (blowout). Since February 1st, BYU is ranked as the 4th best team in the country per Bart Torvik behind only Duke, Houston, and Florida. The Cougars struggle with turnovers offensively when they face aggressive defenses that create havoc. That won’t be the case here as Bama simply doesn’t have a defense that creates turnovers (352nd nationally). If we look at their tourney run (Big 12 and NCAA) the BYU offense has put up 1.23 PPP (vs VCU), 1.28 PPP (vs Wisconsin), and 1.38 PPP (vs Iowa State), all teams that rank in the top 27 in defensive efficiency. Their lone loss in their tourney run was vs Houston who is the best defense in the country (#1 in efficiency) while creating a lot of turnovers (18th nationally). Bama’s defense rates behind all 4 of the BYU’s opponents listed above and since February 1st, the Tide rank outside the top 100 in eFG% defense, 2 point FG% allowed, and defensive rebounding. BYU’s defense isn’t great either so this will come down to who can consistently make shots and mainly 3’s as both rely pretty heavily on arc offense. The fact is, BYU has the better eFG% and 3 point FG% (28th nationally to 116th for Bama). We actually trust BYU’s offense more in this match up as they have a better chance to get hot and stay hot. We mentioned they’ve averaged at least 1.23 PPP in 3 of their last 4 games while Alabama’s offense hasn’t hit 1.20 PPP in any of their last 4 games (SEC and NCAA tourneys). BYU continues to be undervalued as they won outright and covered 5 of the last 6 when tabbed a dog. Let’s take the points here in a game that BYU can absolutely win.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma State -117 over North Texas, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - OSU has had an impressive 2 game run in this tourney topping Wichita State by 10 and then going on the road and beating a very solid SMU team as a 9 point dog. Now the Cowboys are back at home where they’ve been very good this season. They are 13-3 at home including wins over Iowa State, Kansas St, and Cincinnati. Their only home losses came at the hands of Houston, Arizona and Texas Tech who are all in the NCAA Sweet 16. Their offense has been potent at home averaging 79 PPG and they are facing a UNT offense that only puts up 64 PPG on the road this season (they average 71 PPG at home). The Mean Green had a very good season but 6 of their 8 losses this season came away from home. They only had 1 road win vs a team that was in the top 100 (per KenPom) and that was way back in November. Their efficiency drops from 1.15 PPP at home to 1.02 on the road where they shoot just 42%. UNT has played 2 home games in the NIT topping Furman and then holding on Sunday to beat Arkansas State 65-63 despite being +7% from the field and +8% from 3 (shooting percentages). This will be their first NIT road game. While OSU finished 7-13 in the Big 12, if you put them in the AAC which is UNT’s conference, they would rate as the 3rd best team in the league (per KenPom). On the other side, while UNT finished 14-4 in the AAC, put them in the Big12 and they rate as the 11th best team in the same range as Utah, UCF, Arizona State, and Kansas State who all lost @ Oklahoma State by 9 or more points. Short number here in our opinion so let’s lay it with the Cowboys at home.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -7.5 over Colorado State, Sunday at 7:10 PM ET - We’ve documented the Mountain West teams struggles historically in the NCAA tourney including dogs hitting less than 30% ATS dating back to 2001. The MWC teams are 2-2 SU and ATS so far in this tourney and their historical struggles are not the reason for this play but we mention it. We were on Maryland on Friday when it seemed the whole world was on Grand Canyon. The Terps took care of business winning 81-49 as 10 point favorites. This Maryland team is really good and underrated right now. They are the 2nd highest rated team in the Big 10 per KenPom and that conference is showing their dominance so far in the NCAA tourney. They finished 15-7 in the Big 10 however all 7 of those losses came by 6 points or less so the Terps were really close to having a fantastic conference season. They are 1 of 7 teams in the country that rank in the top 22 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Maryland’s starting 5 is as good as any in the Big 10 and maybe the country with all 5 averaging between 12 & 16 PPG. They don’t turn the ball over (21st in offensive turnover rate) and hit their 3’s at a high level (26th in 3 point FG%). This team is very complete. We appreciate CSU’s 11 game winning streak but they’ve only played 2 NCAA teams during that stretch. They topped MWC foe Utah State, who lost by 25 points in the opening round vs UCLA, and them beat Memphis in round 1. Their win over the Tigers wasn’t surprising as CSU was favored despite being a lower seed. That’s because Memphis was drastically overseeded and playing without one of the top players and point guard Tyrese Hunter (14 PPG). The Tigers were a 5 seed but had 14 teams ranked higher than them in KenPom that received lower seeds to give you an idea of how overrated they were. Maryland has the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better rebounding team, turn the ball over at a lower rate, and shoot the 3 at a higher percentage. We like the Terps to cover and advance.

#877/878 ASA PLAY ON UNDER 137.5 points - Arkansas State vs North Texas, Sunday at 7 PM ET - We were on Arkansas State in their first round NIT match up with St Louis and picked up an easy win with the Red Wolves rolling up huge offensive numbers (103-78 Final). They shot 54% overall and 46% from deep in what was a very fast paced game with 75+ possessions. That won’t happen here. First of all, UNT will slow this game to a crawl as they do with every game. Secondly, UNT’s defense is outstanding ranking 46th in efficiency, 27th in eFG% allowed, and 19th in 3 point FG% allowed. The Mean Green played a number of games vs high potent, fast paced offenses and for the most part they shut them down in low possession games. They held a high scoring Memphis team (80 PPG) that plays very fast (28th in tempo) to just 68 points on 1.05 PPP (just 65 possessions). They held UAB (81 PPG), who also plays very fast, to just 61 and 66 points in games of just 60 and 64 possessions. Arkansas St averages 79 PPG but they aren’t a great shooting team. They rank 294th in FG% and 288th in 3 point FG%. When they played slow paced, good defensive teams in the Sun Belt (App State and South Alabama) they totaled 116, 120, and 145 points (on only 65 possessions in that last game). UNT is back at home here where they beat Furman 75-64 in a game that had only 58 possessions. The Mean Green are an average shooting team (45%) but hit just under 55% in that game vs a Furman D that ranks 200th in efficiency. Now they face a top 100 D in Arkansas State. Both teams defend the arc at a high level (both top 20) so we don’t expect a ton of points from deep. UNT has allowed 70+ points since December and ASU’s defense allowed 70+ only 6 times in their 18 regular season conference games. This has the makings of a very low possession game where the defenses dominate. Under.

#861/862 ASA PLAY ON Under 150.5 Points - St Mary’s vs Alabama, Sunday at 6:10 PM ET - This total is set too high. We think this gets to the mid 40’s at best and most likely lower. We understand why it’s set high with the Crimson Tide leading the nation in scoring at 91 PPG. We don’t see them getting anywhere close to that in this game. That’s because St Mary’s will slow the heck out of this game (4th slowest team in the country) and the Gaels are also a high level defensive team (7th in the country in D efficiency). It’s much easier to slow a fast team down rather than speed up a slow team. Nobody has been able to get STM going at a high pace. While they are facing the #1 scoring team in the nation on Sunday, the Gaels have already taken on the #2 scoring team (Gonzaga) 3 times. The Zags average 87 PPG on the season and play very fast. In their games vs St Mary’s, they averaged only 61 PPG and held the Zags under 60 points twice. None of those 3 match ups topped 63 possessions. In Friday’s game, STM faced Vandy who is a very high tempo team that ranks 32nd in the country in offensive efficiency and the final score was 59-56 on only 59 possessions. This team has zero chance to win this game in a shootout and they’ll make sure it doesn’t turn into that. On the other end, we’ve talked about Bama’s offense, but their defense is very sold ranking 34th in efficiency. They defend the arc very well (26th) as does St Mary’s (44th). Both teams limit with only 26.9% of STM’s opponents points coming from deep (335th) and 27.1% of Bama’s opponents points coming from 3 (329th). If this one plays out as we expect, we just don’t see how this gets to 150 points unless both teams shoot lights out. We’re on the Under.

#824 ASA PLAY ON Houston -5 over Gonzaga, Saturday at 8:40 pm et - We were hoping for this match up in the round of 32 but weren’t sure the overhyped Zags would get by Georgia in the first round. We were on UGA in that game and it wasn’t pretty. The Bulldogs got down 27-3 out of the gate, because of some scorching shooting by Gonzaga along with a putrid offensive effort on their part (19% from 3). Zags shot 60% from 3 in the game and averaged 1.25 PPP but now they face the best and most physical defense they’ve seen this season by far (#2 nationally in defensive efficiency allowing 0.87 PPP). The only other top 10 type defense they faced this year was St Mary’s and they lost 2 of those games and averaged only 61 PPG. Thus we don’t expect a repeat offensive performance on Saturday. Houston rolled as well in their first round winning by 38 points so both should be rested. The Cougs played in the much tougher Big 12, went 22-1 (regular season + tourney) and their only loss was in OT to a very good Texas Tech team (3 seed in the Dance). Meanwhile Gonzaga lost 4 games in the weak WCC and 8 games overall, twice as many losses as Houston despite the much easier schedule. Houston was an impressive 14-3 in Quad 1 games this year and if we throw in Quad 2 they were 20-4 overall vs their higher level opponents. Gonzaga was 5-5 vs Quad 1 and 10-8 vs Quad 1 & 2. Where Houston has really improved this year is shooting the ball where they are shooting the 3 at 40% which is 4th best in the nation while the Zags rank outside the top 100 from beyond the arc. The Bulldogs need to score inside (they take very few 3’s) but the problem is Houston’s defense ranks 4th nationally defending inside the arc. We think Gonzaga is getting way too much love and now they face the best team they’ve seen this season by a wide margin. This number is too short. Take Houston.

#827/828 ASA PLAY ON Over 154.5 Points – BYU vs Wisconsin, Saturday at 7:45 PM ET - Two of the most efficient offenses in the country going at it in Denver in what we expect will be a high scoring game. BYU ranks 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and Wisconsin ranks 13th and they both average 80 PPG which puts them in the top 35 in the country. These 2 teams shooting the highest percentage of 3’s in the tourney (both around 48% of their shots are triples) and they make them at a high rate (37% and 35%). The weakness of both teams on defense is defending the arc with the Badgers ranking 183rd allowing 33% and BYU ranking 243rd giving up 35%. We think both teams will scoring in bunches from deep. This should be a fairly quick tempo as well with Wisconsin completely changing their philosophy and pushing the ball this season while BYU prefers the same. We shouldn’t have many empty possessions as the Badgers are among the best in the country at taking care of the ball (25th in turnovers per game) and while the Cougs do have a tendency to turn it over, Wisconsin doesn’t create many takeaways (327th). We should see plenty of freebies as well with the Badgers getting to the FT line a lot (30th in FT attempts per game) and they make them at over 83% (#1 in the nation). These two have a combined record of 40-29 to the Over this season and we see another shootout on Saturday.

#787/798 ASA PLAY ON Over 160 Points – Xavier vs Illinois, Friday at 9:45 PM ET - Two fast paced teams with high level offenses should equal a high scoring game here. The Illini average 84 PPG on the season and they are a top 15 offense in terms of efficiency. They are also a very good offensive rebounding team (18th nationally) so extra opportunities on the offensive end should be available. They are not a good 3 point shooting team, however that speaks to how good their offense is despite that (PPG & efficiency). If they shoot above average from deep, this offense can up piles of points (they put up big time points without doing that). They should do plenty of damage inside ranking 18th in 2 point FG% facing an undersized XU defense that ranks 159th defending inside the arc. Xavier is the 9th best 3 point shooting team in the country and facing an Illinois defense whose weakness is guarding the arc (143rd nationally). Both teams are very good at taking care of the ball so wasted possessions will be few. We should get a bunch of extra points from the FT line as both shoot it very well (79% for XU and 76% for Illinois). The Illini are 18th in adjusted tempo and Xavier is 76th so we’ll have plenty of possessions in this game. A fast paced team with 2 teams that rank in the top 65 nationally in PPP vs OK but not great defenses should lead to big points. We like both to get to 80 in this game giving us an Over.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Oklahoma +5.5 over UConn, Friday a 9:25 PM ET - Too many points here for 2 teams we have power rated almost dead even.  UConn is obviously getting respect for their back to back National Championships but this team is nowhere near the caliber of those 2 teams.  This team is ranked 34th per KenPom while those 2 were #1.  The Huskies are solid offensively but their defense simply isn’t very good this year, barely ranked inside the top 100 in efficiency.  The only teams in the Dance that have a worse defensive efficiency than UConn are all seeded 10th or lower.  They were 14-6 in Big East regular season play but 9 of those wins were by 8 points or fewer or in OT.  The Sooners have a very good offense averaging 79 PPG and shooting inside the top 35 nationally both eFG% and 3 point FG%.  They should be able to take advantage of a Connecticut defense that struggles to defend the arc (257th).  They also hit 80% of their FT’s and UConn fouls a lot with 23% of their opponent’s points coming from the stripe (17th most in the country).  On the other end OU defends the arc very well (20th) and they have the better overall defensive efficiency.  Down the stretch the Sooners were playing quite well beating tourney teams Miss State, Georgia. Texas and Missouri.  Their losses down the stretch were all tight losing to Kentucky by 1 point twice and Ole Miss by 3 points.  Oklahoma has covered 7 in a row as a dog winning 4 of those outright.  This will be a battle and we’ll take the points.

#808 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -10 over Grand Canyon, Friday at 4:30 PM ET - We’re hearing a lot about the fact that Grand Canyon had some success last year waltzing into the Dance last season and upsetting St Mary’s as a 5 point dog in the round of 64. First of all, GC’s team this year is nowhere near as good as last year’s team. This year they rank 96th per KenPom and last year they were 52nd entering the tourney. This year they rank 151st in offensive efficiency and 69th in defensive efficiency compared to 74th and 32nd respectively last year. The Lopes have faced the 255th strength of schedule which is the 8th easiest in the entire NCAA tournament. They only played one Quad 1 game this year (lost to Georgia) and if we add in Quad 2 they were 1-3 including losses to Arizona State (who finished 4-16 in the Big 12), La Tech, and Utah Valley. Maryland will be BY FAR the best team they’ve faced this season. The Terps rate as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 (per KenPom) behind only MSU and if we dropped Grand Canyon in the Big 10 at their current rating they would rated 2nd to last. The Terps shoot the 3 much better (ranked 27th to 284th for CG) and they turn the ball over far less (23rd in offensive turnover rate compared to 270th for CG). The majority of the Lopes scoring comes inside the arc and at the FT line but the problem here is Maryland defends very well at the rim with two 6’10 players and they rarely send teams to the foul line. The Terps were 15-7 in the Big 10 this year (regular season and tourney) but they were really close to winning the conference as all 7 of their losses came by 6 points or less. This team is undervalued in our opinion as they are 1 of 10 team in the country that rank in the top 30 in offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. Both teams love to play up tempo and the more possessions gives the better team a chance to win by margin. We’ll lay it with Maryland on Friday.

#790 ASA PLAY ON St Mary’s -4 over Vanderbilt, Friday at 3:15 PM ET - St Mary’s will take Vandy out of their comfort zone and slow this game down. The Gaels rank 359th (out of 364 teams) in adjusted tempo and the Commodores rank in the top 65. They like to play fast and STM will get the pace here (much easier to slow down a team rather than speed up a team) and Vanderbilt is not used to that tempo. Every team in the SEC, with the exception of Tennessee, South Carolina, and UGA, like to play fast. When the Dores’ were slowed down, they were 1-2 SU in those games with their lone win coming by 3 points vs South Carolina who finished with a 2-16 conference record. The Gaels should dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the nation (#2 in the nation) vs a Vandy team that ranks just 178th on the defensive glass. The Commodores won only 4 of their final 12 games to squeak into the Dance. They rank 14th out of 16 SEC teams and benefitted from the conference affiliation and really shouldn’t be in the Dance. Their defense has been suspect ranking 278th in eFG% allowed and 337th defending the arc while St Mary’s ranks inside the top 15 in eFG% allowed, defensive efficiency, and 2 point FG% allowed. They are also solid defending the arc (43rd in the nation) vs a Vandy team that struggles to make 3’s (240th in 3 point FG%). Their defense ranks outside the top 300 in both FG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. We like the Gaels in this one.

#758 ASA PLAY ON UCLA -5.5 over Utah State, Thursday at 9:25 PM ET - We’re hearing lots of love for Utah State by the talking heads and we’re not so sure they deserve the 12 vs 5 “upset” tag here. First of all, the Mountain West has been a terrible NCAA tourney conference going 30-63 SU and 29-61-3 ATS their last 93 games in the Big Dance. That includes Tuesday night’s game where San Diego State, the 4th highest rated team in the MWC which is higher than this Utah St team, getting blasted 95-68 by a UNC team that was the final bid to the tourney. As underdogs in the tourney, MWC teams have covered the spread only 27% of the time since 2001, a sample of 55 games. Now to the match up. USU is rated by KenPom as the 5th best team in the conference and while their offense is solid, their defense ranks 151st nationally which is the 4th worst mark in the conference and ahead of only 11 teams in this tournament. UCLA ranks in the top 35 in both offense and defensive efficiency while playing the much more difficult schedule. The Bruins with some extra motivation here after getting blitzed by Wisconsin in the Big 10 tourney as the Badgers made 19 of 32 triples (60%). The Bruins have high level wins over Gonzaga, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Oregon and Arizona among others. USU is 3-6 vs teams ranked inside KenPom’s top 50 and UCLA will be the 2nd highest rated team the Aggies have faced this season. Let’s lay it with UCLA.

#765 ASA PLAY ON Drake +6.5 over Missouri, Thursday at 7:35 PM ET - This is just a flat out bad match up for the Missouri Tigers.  They like to play fast and Drake will slow this game to a crawl.  The Bulldogs are the slowest tempo team in the entire country averaging a shot every 22 seconds which is the slowest mark (per KenPom) in the last decade.  Worse yet, if they miss that shot, their offensive rebounding rate is stellar (17th in the nation), and then the defense has to immediately play another long possession.  Missouri is a very poor defensive rebounding team (300th in the country) and their defense isn’t great (9th in the SEC in defensive efficiency and outside the top 100 nationally since Feb 1st).  The Tigers struggled down the stretch with a 2-5 record their last 7 games and one of those wins came vs South Carolina who finished 2-16 in the SEC.  Drake is in the top 75 in both offensive and defensive efficiency.  They shoot the ball very well ranking 21st in FG% and 75th in 3 point FG%.  They’ve already shown the can beat the big boys as they topped Vandy (NCAA tourney team) by 11 on a neutral site (outrebounded Vandy by 19) and they also beat a decent Kansas State team on the road.  They’ve won 18 of their last 19 games with their only loss coming by 2 points to a good Bradley team.  We expect very few possessions in this game which will make it very tough for Tigers to win by margin, if they win at all.  Take the points.

#771 ASA PLAY ON Yale +8 over Texas A&M, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - We think A&M has a chance to get upset early in this tourney because they don’t shoot the ball well ranking outside the top 300 in both eFG% and 3 point FG%. The Aggies have the 2nd worst eFG% in the entire NCAA tournament ahead of only Alabama State. They rely very heavily on offensive rebounds (#1 in the country) for 2nd chance scoring opportunities and Yale has a chance to negate that somewhat. The Bulldogs are a big team that ranks 22nd nationally in defensive rebounding. Those numbers might be a bit inflated due to their weaker schedule but they are at the very least a decent rebounding team. Yale is the much better shooting team (41st in eFG% and 9th in 3 point FG%) and they were easily the best team in the Ivy going 15-1 in their 16 games. They not only rebound the ball well they also rank in the top 20 nationally on offensive turnover rate. They gave Purdue trouble in West Lafayette this season losing by 8 (despite making 15 fewer FT’s) in one of the tougher places to play in the country. This team, with many of the same players, beat Auburn last year in the opening round of the NCAA so they have the pedigree to keep this close and have a shot to pull off the upset. If this is tight late, as we expect, FT’s could be key and the Aggies hit less than 70% as a team. Yale coach James Jones is excellent leading this team to 20+ wins in 5 of their last 6 seasons and he’ll have them very well prepared as they were last year in round 1. Take the points.

#745/746 ASA PLAY ON Under 134 Points - McNeese State vs Clemson, Thursday at 3:15 PM ET (Providence, RI) - These are 2 of the slowest paced teams in the tourney facing off so we do not expect many offensive possessions.  Clemson ranks 327th in adjusted tempo and McNeese ranks 283rd.  What we really like about this match up in regards to the Under, is both defenses make opposing offenses really work to get a decent shot.  Clemson’s opponents average a shot every 19.1 seconds which is the 2nd best mark in the country.  McNeese opponents average a shot every 18.6 seconds which is 19th in the country.  The Tigers had the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the ACC behind only Duke and 16th best in the nation.  The Cowboys were by far the best defensive team (efficiency) in the Southland and they rank 66th nationally.  Against higher level offensive teams early in the season, McNeese held Alabama (#1 scoring offense in the country) to 72 points, the Tide’s 2nd lowest point total of the year and 19 points below their season average.  They also held Mississippi State to 66 points (they average 80 PPG) and they held Liberty, NCAA tourney team and one of the best shooting teams in the country, to 62 points which was also their season low.  Both create defensive turnovers at a high rate (both #1 in their conferences) which leads to empty possessions for their opponent.  Clemson held 11 of their final 13 opponents to less than 70 points with only Duke (#3 nationally in offensive efficiency) and Louisville (#29 in offensive efficiency) topping that number.  McNeese only allowed 7 of their 31 opponents this season to top 70 points.  This has the makings of a low possession (low 60’s?), defensive battle and we’ll grab the Under.

#747/748 ASA PLAY ON Over 152 Points – High Point vs Purdue, Thursday at 12:40 PM ET - We expect both offense to have a lot of success in this one. Both rank in the top 10 nationally in FG% and Purdue ranks 7th nationally in offensive efficiency while High Point steps in at 25th in that metric. While the Panthers are really good offensively (18th nationally averaging 82 PPG) they are really poor defensively. Their defensive efficiency ranks 227th which is the 6th worst mark in the 68 team NCAA field. Their pick and roll defense is really poor which is bad news facing a Purdue team with PG Smith and F Kaufman-Renn are as good as any duo in the country at P&R offense. The top P&R offense in the Big South, UNC Asheville, lit the High Point defense up for 103 and 86 points in their 2 meetings and they are nowhere near the same level as this Purdue offense. On the other end, High Point should be able to put up points vs this Purdue defense that was way down from previous editions ranking 12th in the Big 10 in eFG% allowed and dead last in 2 points FG% allowed. The Panthers are a very good 3 point shooting team (36.6% and all of their top 7 players hit at least 33% from deep) but they like to work inside the arc as well where they rank 15th in the country in 2 point FG% which matches up well against the Boiler defense. Both offenses are very solid at protecting the ball and above average offensive rebounding teams so both should have decent shot volume numbers in this game (both top 70 in FG’s made per game). High Point is going to have to put the ball in the hoop to keep up here because they won’t be able to stop Purdue. We think the Panthers can do that and this one sails Over the Total.

#712 ASA PLAY ON St Joes -5 over UAB, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - This is a brutal spot for UAB. They just played on Friday, Saturday, and on Sunday in the AAC championship game. They lost that game 84-72 vs Memphis ending their hopes for an NCAA tournament berth. Now after 3 games in 3 days in Texas, the Blazers have to travel to Philadelphia and play a little more than 72 hours after losing to the Tigers. Just a really tough situation both physically and mentally for this UAB team. St Joes lost on Saturday in the A10 tourney vs George Mason and that tourney was in Washington DC which is only 150 miles from Philly. They were home on Saturday night and have had plenty of time to rest up and get ready for this home game. Both teams are potent offensively but St Joes has a huge edge on the defensive end. The home team Hawks rank 72nd in defensive efficiency and 28th in eFG% allowed while UAB ranks 268th and 226th in those 2 key stats. STJ finished 8-1 at home in A10 play (6-1 ATS their last 7 as a home favorite) with their only loss coming vs VCU the conference champion. The Blazers were just 5-5 in true road games this year with all wins coming vs teams outside the top 115 (St Joe’s is ranked 79th per KenPom). The situation heavily favors the host and they are the better team. We’ll lay it.

#708 ASA PLAY ON American -2.5 over Mount Saint Mary’s, Wednesday at 6:40 PM ET - We like the experience and “age” of American here as they are one of the oldest teams in the country. They start 5 seniors (2 fifth year Super Seniors) who have all played their entire careers for American. They were rated as the 2nd best team in the Patriot league behind Bucknell but won the conference tourney including double digit wins in the semi’s and finals. Since January 5th, this team has won 16 of their last 20 games. We like the scheduling situation much better for this Eagles team. They won the Patriot League championship last Wednesday so they’ve had a full week off. Mount Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, played last Thursday, Friday, and Saturday to win the MAAC title and now have to take the road just a few days later. The Mountaineers were rated as the 5th best team in the MAAC and were tabbed as dogs in each of their 3 conference tourney games and pulled upsets in each. They caught some breaks as the 3 teams they faced in their tournament went ice cold from deep with a combined 15 of 75 three point attempts (20%). MTSM was 28 of 75 from 3 during their tourney run (37%) which is above their season average. American should have a solid advantage in turnover margin here as Mt St Mary’s turns the ball over at a rate of 22% which is 5th worst in the nation. American created turnovers al almost a 19% rate in Patriot League play which was the best in the conference and they won the turnover battle in 11 of their final 12 games. That should lead to extra possession for the Eagles which will be very important in a potential close game. These teams are pretty close offensively with American having a slightly better eFG%, a slightly better offensive efficiency, and they do make almost 77% of their FTs which could be key in this one. We’ll lay the small number with American.

#680 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas State -4.5 over St Louis, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Arkansas State was the highest rated team in the Sun Belt the entire season and lost in the Conference Championship game to Troy. That game was last Monday so they’ve had more than a week to recoup and get ready for the NIT. They are excited to be hosting this game on National TV (ESPNU) as they rarely get that opportunity. It’s the first time ASU has hosted a post-season game since 1991. The Red Wolves are 13-2 at home this season and 23-5 since the start of last season. Their average score at home is 80-64 and they should easily win the shot volume stat in this game. ASU is 12th nationally in FG attempts per game as they take advantage of their opportunities by not turning the ball over (36th nationally in offensive turnover rate) and they get extra chances on the offensive boards (61st in offensive rebounding). St Louis is on the opposite end of the spectrum as they rank 308th in FG attempts per game because they turn the ball over a lot (283rd in offensive turnover rate) and they get very few offensive rebounds (337th). The Billikens have been poor on the road (4-8 record both SU & ATS) and struggle to score away from home (68 PPG). They’ve taken care of lower tier opponents, but when stepping up vs similar or higher tier teams, STL is just 1-11 SU this year (vs Quad 1 and 2 teams). This is a big home game for Arkansas State and we expect them to bring their top effort and cover this number.

#676 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -6 over Jacksonville State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Rough spot here for Jacksonville State who played for the CUSA Championship and an auto bid to the Dance on Saturday night. They lost by 12 points to Liberty ending their dream of making it to the NCAA tourney for the 3rd time in school history. On top of that, they played last Wednesday, Friday, and Saturday for the title and now are on the road again just a few days later. Georgia Tech has been off since last Thursday when they played Duke very tough losing by 8 in the ACC tourney. The Jackets had no hope of making to the NCAA tournament unless they won the ACC tourney so we expect them to bounce back nicely here. Tech has solid wins this season over both Clemson (on the road) and Louisville (at home) who tied for 2nd in the ACC regular season with a record of 18-2. Their only 2 home losses in conference play this season were vs Duke (#1 per KenPom) and Clemson (#18 per KenPom). Georgia Tech will be the 3rd highest rated team JSU has faced this season and vs top 100 team the Gamecocks are just 1-3 SU. Tech is 12-4 SU vs teams ranked outside the top 100 (JSU is 123rd) and it sounds like they are rejuvenated with 5 days off and able to play at home. We think JSU might be out of gas here and emotionally drained. Lay the points.

#643/644 ASA PLAY ON Under 144 Points - Florida vs Tennessee, Sunday at 1 PM ET - This total opened 140 and has crept up to 143.5 and 144.  Too high in our opinion.  We understand why with the Gators coming of 2 very high scoring games in this SEC tourney vs Missouri (176 total points) and Alabama (186 total points).  Florida went off on offense averaging 1.30 and 1.33 PPP in those 2 wins.  Those were ultra fast paced games with 73 and 78 possessions vs defensive teams that didn’t match  up very well with the Gators.  Now we have a Tennessee team that will slow this game down and they match up very well defensively vs Florida who like to get out in transition.  In the first meeting the Vols did allow 18 points on the break which was the most they’ve given up this season.  They made adjustments in the second meeting and Florida had only 8 fast break points.  You can bet UT will make sure the Gators can’t get out and run today.  On the other side, the Vols aren’t a great shooting team ranking 8th in the SEC in 3 point FG% and 11th in 2 point FG% and they are running into a high level Florida defense that is 7th nationally in defensive efficiency (Tenn is 3rd nationally in that metric).  When it comes to eFG% defense, Tennessee ranks #1 in the country and Florida #6.  Both of these defenses are elite.  In their 2 meetings this year they totaled 116 points (73-43 Florida win) and 110 points (64-44 Tennessee win).  As you can see, only 1 team topped 70 in those 2 meetings and twice they were held under 50 points.  These 2 defenses are fantastic defending the arc (1st and 7th nationally) and it showed in those 2 meetings where they combined to go 20 of 98 from 3.  These teams know each other very well and obviously know how to defend the opposing offense.  They’ve had 4 straight Unders in this series with 3 of those games failing to top 123 total points.  We don’t think either team gets to 70 points here so grabbing the Under.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Maryland -4.5 over Michigan, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - We faded Michigan last night and it turned out to be a poor pick.  Purdue shot the ball very poorly 34% from the field and never had a chance.  Our main concern in that game for the Boilers was defending inside the arc.  They haven’t been good at that this season, although much better as of late, and the Wolverines took advantage of that making a ridiculous 69% of their 2 point shots which led to 52% overall.  That shouldn’t happen today vs a Terp that ranks in the top 50 nationally defending inside the 3 point line.  That means Michigan may have to be hot from deep to pick up a win here and they are not a great outside shooting team ranking 17th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG%.  They only shot 30% from deep last night but it didn’t matter because they were scoring at the rim as a very high rate.  The other outlier last night was Michigan only had 6 turnovers.  This is a team that has been terrible at taking care of the ball ranking 330th in offensive turnover rate.  Today we expect them to struggle vs a Maryland defense that can cause problems ranking in the top 45 nationally at creating turnovers.  The Terps destroyed an Illinois team that had been playing at the top of their game coming in.  It was a huge revenge game for the Illini after getting smoked at home by Maryland and they still went on to lost 88-65 yesterday.  To be honest it wasn’t even that close as the Terps led by almost 40 points at one point in the 2nd half.  These 2 met once this season and Maryland traveled to Ann Arbor 10 days ago and won by 5 despite shooting only 38% for the game (Michigan shot 44%).  The Wolverines also shot above their average from deep hitting 35% of their triples and still lost at home.  They turned the ball over 22% of the time in that game which is what we expect today.  Maryland is the better team across the board and we’re not going to let one data point (yesterday) for Michigan change that.  The Wolves were playing terrible over the last month plus entering the tourney and caught Purdue on a night where they shot poorly and Michigan took advantage of poor inside defense.  We’ll lay it here.

#609/610 ASA PLAY ON Under 145.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Saturday at 1 PM ET - We were on MSU vs Oregon Under yesterday and we’re coming right back with another Under on Saturday. MSU ranks 5th in the nation in defensive efficiency and since mid February they rank 1st in the country in that metric. Yesterday they completely shut down Oregon from beyond the arc (21% shooting) and allowed just 64 points. The Spartans have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 66 points or less including limiting Wisconsin to just 62 points on March 2nd. The Badgers shot just 34% and made only 5 triples in that 71-62 loss. On Friday they lit up UCLA shooting 52% and hit 19 three pointers and we anticipate they come nowhere near that on Saturday vs Sparty. While Wisconsin’s offense has been talked about all season, their defense has quietly become really good. Their defense has moved into the top 30 nationally in efficiency and since February 1st they rank 23rd in that metric. They held the Spartans to less than 1.00 PPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. MSU did hit 47% of their 3’s yesterday (and the game still only reached 138) and that is not the norm for this team who averages 30% from beyond the arc (324th nationally). The Spartan defense is set up perfectly to defend Wisconsin’s 3 point attack as they allow just 27% on the season (2nd nationally) and held the Badgers to 5 of 32 from deep on March 2nd. This has been a defensive series with only 1 of the last 6 meetings topping 134 points and the average total points scored in those 6 meetings was 134. Tired legs could be a factor in shooting success on Saturday with Wisconsin playing their 3rd game in 3 days and MSU playing their 2nd in back to back days. These teams know each other very well and we’ll call for a lower scoring game than expected.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -2 over Michigan, Friday at 9 PM ET - We were on Purdue last night and while they topped USC they did not get the cover winning by 5.  We’re coming back with the Boilers tonight vs a Michigan team that was on a sharp decline to end the season.  The Wolverines lost their last 3 games and 4 of their last 6 to end the regular season with their only wins coming by 3 vs Nebraska and by 2 vs Rutgers.  They’ve been extremely lucky in tight games winning their last 9 games that were decided by 4 points or less.  In fact, Michigan has not won a game by more than 4 points in 2 months while 4 of their last 5 losses have come by double digits!  They faced Purdue twice this season and got destroyed on the road (91-64) and barely escaped at home (75-73).  The Wolverines finished tied for 2nd in the Big 10 gathering a double bye for this tourney, however KenPom has them ranked as the 7th best team in the conference, well behind this Purdue team.  If we simply look at the Wolverines efficiency over the last month (since mid February), Bart Torvik has them rated as the 14th best team in the 18 team Big 10 conference.  Purdue, despite finishing behind Michigan in the Big 10 standings, is better at most of the key statistics in league play.  They rank #1 in the conference in offensive efficiency (Michigan is 14th), #1 eFG% (Michigan is 8th), #1 in 3 point FG% (Michigan is 17th), defensive efficiency is almost dead even and Michigan turns the ball over the most in the Big 10 at nearly 20%.  The Boilers are comfortable playing in Indy having played last night and earlier this season while Michigan will be playing their first game here this season.  Right down the road from Purdue this will be a “semi” home game with the crowd factor and we like the Boilermakers to take care of business in this one as they get revenge for the road loss at Michigan (started a 4-game losing streak for Purdue) in the most recent meeting! Payback for the Boilers in this one!

#811 ASA PLAY ON St Joes +1.5 over Dayton, Friday at 7:30 PM ET - Our power ratings have St Joe’s as the slightly better overall team and they are getting points in this one.  We like the fact that STJ played yesterday to get acclimated to the large NBA arena (Cap One in DC) while Dayton did not play.  Fatigue won’t be a factor in the 2nd of back to back games but it could be if they continue to win.  The Hawks won 75-70 over LaSalle in what looked like a tight game but it really wasn’t at STJ led by 21 points with just under 4:00 minutes to go in the game before the Explorers went crazy and made 5 triples in the last 3:30 of the game to make the game look like it was competitive.  LaSalle made a ridiculous 65% of their 3’s on the night and still trailed by 20+ points late.  These 2 met once this season back in January and Dayton took that game at home by a final score of 77-72.  The Flyers shot 49% from the field (42% for STJ), 42% from 3 (27% for STJ) and made 4 more FTs yet the game still went to the wire.  Dayton finished 1 game ahead of St Joes on the A10 standings (12-6 record vs 11-7) but if we look at conference only stats, the Hawks were better almost across the board.  STJ had the better offensive and defensive efficiency, better offensive and defensive eFG%, they were the much better rebounding team, and had a better PPG margin (+6.4 to +2.2) despite having 1 fewer win.  The Flyers could be getting an extra bump here because they beat the best team in the A10, VCU, to close out the regular season but the Rams played that game without one of their top players who was injured.  We like this spot for St Joes getting points.

#825/826 ASA PLAY ON Under 148 Points - Wichita State vs Memphis, Friday at 1 PM ET - In their 2 meetings this season, these AAC foes totaled 114 and 142 (in regulation) and both games were under 70 possessions in regulation (one went to double OT).  The teams dominated on the defensive end in those meetings with PPP numbers (efficiency) of 1.09, 1.03, 0.90, and 0.77.  Both of these teams turn the ball over a lot (12th and 13th in the AAC in offensive turnover rate) and that leads to empty possessions.  In fact, in their 2 meetings this season there were a whopping 60 combined turnovers.  Memphis likes to play fast but it was obvious with the tempo results of the 2 games that Wichita wants to make this a slower paced game.  Their offense isn’t good enough (283rd in offensive efficiency and 349th in 3 point FG%) to win a high scoring affair so we expect another game with the possessions in the 60’s.  Both defenses are very solid ranking #1 (Memphis) and #4 in efficiency in conference play.  Neither team takes many 3 pointers with the Shockers ranking 358th in 3 point attempts and the Tigers 299th.  They only combined to make 23 triples in their 2 games this season and shot just 39% from the field.  Neither team topped 71 points in either game in regulation and we don’t think they will here.  Under.

#821 ASA PLAY ON Kennesaw State +7.5 over Liberty, Friday at 12:30 PM ET - Kennesaw has proven to be a tough match up for Liberty who ranks as the top CUSA team. In their 2 meetings this season Liberty won by 8 @ Kennesaw and the Owls return the favor winning by 5 @ Liberty late in the season. KSU scored 85 at Liberty which was the highest point total the Flames allowed all season. The Owls won that road game by 5 points in early March despite Liberty making 17 more FTs! KSU won the shot volume by a huge margin (+28 shots in the 2 games) in part because they dominated the boards pulling down 24 more rebounds and that should stick in this game. The Owls are tied for the top rebounding team in CUSA +11.5 per game and they rank 2nd in offensive rebounding. Liberty is the 2nd worst rebounding team in the conference getting outboarded by 6 per game. The Owls are very athletic and they are a top notch dribble creation team which gave Liberty’s defense big problems especially in the recent meeting where they hit 51% of their shots. Defensively KSU matches up well with Liberty’s offense with the Owls ranking in the top 75 nationally in eFG% allowed and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to speed Liberty up in their 2 meetings (70 possessions average) which is not the Flames game. If they are ahead late and need to hold on, Liberty makes only 65% of their FT’s which ranks 345th in the country. KSU has now played 19 conference games, including last night’s win over NM State, and they’ve been topped by more than 8 points just 3 times. This one stays tight like the first 2 meetings and we’ll take the points.

#813/814 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Michigan State vs Oregon, Friday at 12 PM ET - MSU is one of the top defensive teams in the country (5th nationally in defensive efficiency) and Oregon is no slouch (30th nationally in defensive efficiency).  Sparty has been great on defense all season long and the Ducks have upped their game on that end of the court over the last month.  In fact, Oregon has held 5 of their last 7 opponents to less than 1.00 PPP including a Wisconsin offense that ranks 12th nationally averaging 1.23 PPP.  In fact, since mid February the Ducks defense ranks 12th in the country in efficiency and MSU ranks 2nd.  The Spartans have held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 66 points or less including potent offensive teams Wisconsin, Purdue, and Illinois (all top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency).  Oregon has had 2 OT games over their last 7, however if we strictly look at regulation, they’ve also held 6 of their last 7 opponents to 68 points or less.  These 2 met once this season and they total was set at 146 and despite the 2 teams going well Over the total hitting 160 total points, the total for this game is set lower.  In that first meeting, there were 69 possessions which isn’t a lot, although we expect fewer today, MSU’s defense was terrible (very rare) in the first half allowing 50 total points to the Ducks, then held them to 24 in the 2nd half.  Then Sparty put up 50 in the 2nd half after scoring just 36 in the first half.  Both teams offensive efficiency was MUCH higher than these defenses normally allow, they combined to make 40% of their 45 three point attempts and they combined to make 40 FT’s.  We don’t see either repeating that offensive performance against defenses playing at their peak right now in a tense, tournament format.  Oregon is 50/50 on Over/Unders this season but MSU is 21-10 to the Under this season.  Buckets will be tough to come by in this game.  Let’s go Under.

#752 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -10 over USC, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Tough spot for USC here after making the long travel to Indianapolis and then playing a double OT game in the late game last night. They topped Rutgers 97-89 and every USC starter played more than 40 minutes as they have a very short bench. Only 1 bench player topped 8 minutes last night. That’s going to be a tough turnaround vs a Purdue team that is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (8th nationally & 1st in the Big 10). The Trojan defense is already poor ranking 14th in the conference in efficiency, 13th in eFG% allowed, and giving up nearly 80 PPG in league play. They’ve been even worse defensively on the away from their home court giving up 90, 82, 95, 88, and 90 in their last 5 road games alone. Some of the Trojans losing margins away from home this season include -27 vs UCLA, -18 vs Purdue, -21 vs Oregon, -17 vs Maryland, and -13 vs Indiana. While this is not a true home game for Purdue, they are very used to this venue in Indy (played here already this year) and they should have a huge crowd edge. As we mentioned above, PU already beat USC by 18 this year and they actually led by 26 late in the game and dominated the offensive glass pulling down 47% of their misses. We’d expect a similar rebounding performance vs a tired USC team that ranks outside the top 200 nationally in both offensive and defensive rebounding. That should lead to extra opportunities for the Boilers who are a solid shot volume team (20th among Power 5 teams) while USC is not (bottom 15 among Power 5 teams). Let’s lay it with the Boilers

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Under 132.5 Points - Abilene Christian vs Seattle, Thursday at 9 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season and totaled 130 and 134 points and this number is basically set right in the middle of those 2 performances. Neither team topped 1.04 PPP in either game and 2 of the 4 offensive data points were less than 1.00 PPP. We don’t expect that to change here in a do or die setting on a neutral site (unfamiliar court). Both defenses are high level ranking the top 100 nationally in efficiency while offensive they both rank outside the top 325 in eFG%. Neither team scores much from 3 (270th and 361st in 3’s made per game) and they simply don’t shoot well from deep when they do get looks (257th and 321st in 3 point FG%). The shot volume for each team should be low in this one as both create turnovers at a high level (which leads to wasted offensive possessions) and neither are good offensive rebounding teams (which limits 2nd chances). In their 2 meetings this season, both teams in both games had turnover rates of higher than 20% which is really poor. Seattle is the slowest paced team in the WAC and while ACU prefers a faster pace, the slower team usually gets their tempo so expect a lower possession game (67.5 average possessions in first 2 meetings). Seattle’s defense allows just 59 PPG in league play and they’ve allowed 67 points or less in 8 of their last 9 games, including 5 of those opponents failing to reach 60 points. In ACU’s games vs the 3 slowest paced teams in the league (Seattle, Cal Baptist and Tarleton St) the total points scored were 130, 134, 119, 143, 123, and 114 points for an average of 127. Let’s go Under in this one.

#740 ASA PLAY ON Xavier +2.5 over Marquette, Thursday at 2:30 PM ET - With a win here XU solidifies their spot in the Big Dance as ESPN currently has them as one of the last 4 in. A loss could push them out of the tourney. The Musketeers have been playing at the top of their game with 7 straight wins and 12 of their last 15. Their top player and leading scorer, Zach Freemantle, missed the first few games of the Big East season including their first meeting with Marquette but since he’s come back this team is on a roll. They faced the Golden Eagles twice this year and both teams won on the road by exactly 2 points. In their win @ Marquette, the Musketeers made only 2 of 17 from beyond the arc, were outscored by 18 points from beyond the arc, and still led by 19 points in the 2nd half (won by 2). That terrible 3 point effort was absolutely an outlier as Xavier ranks 11th nationally hitting 38.5% of their triples. In their tight home loss vs Marquette back in December, they played without Freemantle (as we mentioned above) and still had a shot to win. The Eagles started the Big East season winning 9 of their first 10 games but since they are just 4-6 with their wins during that stretch coming vs Seton Hall, DePaul, Georgetown, and Providence, all teams that ended with losing records in conference play. Since mid January XU ranks as the better team by nearly 20 spots (24th in the country to 42nd for Marquette per Torvik). Xavier is the better shooting team, the much better 3 point shooting team, and they make almost 80% of their FT’s. We’ll take the points here as we expect an XU win.

#745 ASA PLAY ON Indiana +2 over Oregon, Thursday at 12 PM ET - Indiana continues their late season push to try and solidify a spot in the Big Dance. Right now ESPN has them as one of the last 4 in and a win here might come close locking it up. In early February the Hoosiers looked dead in the water after losing 7 of 8 and dropping to 5-8 in the Big 10. At that point head coach Mike Woodson decided he would retire at the end of the season and they rallied around him winning 5 of their final 7 games including wins over Michigan State on the road and Purdue at home. One of their losses during that final stretch run was @ Oregon. The Ducks won by 9, however that final score was very misleading as the Hoosiers actually led with 1:35 remaining in the game and Oregon went on to make 7 FT’s in the last 1:20 while not making a single shot. The Ducks made 19 FTs in the game to just 3 for IU and their largest lead of the game was the final score. During this final 7 game run the Hoosiers have worked their way up to the 32nd best team in the nation (per Torvik) while ranking 63rd in offensive efficiency and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are just 1-4-1 ATS as a favorite away from home this year and they are already locked into a solid seed in the Dance (5 or 6 seed as of now). We like IU to pull the upset here.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Syracuse +9.5 over SMU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - This line is set too high in our opinion due to the fact that SMU is in must win mode to try and push back onto the NCAA bubble as they’ve fallen completely off over the last few weeks. You don’t think Cuse has the same mindset as they set out to try and win this tourney which would put them in. The fact is, the Mustangs have been in must win situations over the last month and yet they are just 3-4 SU their last 7 games and 2 of those wins came by 2 and 4 points. One of those wins was at home vs this Syracuse team with the Stangs winning 77-75 on March 4th. SMU shot 54% in that game and never led by more than 2 points. The Orange actually led that game by 12 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the game and blew it and that was on the road. Over the last month (since mid Feb), Syracuse rates as the better team ranking 48th nationally to 75th for SMU (per Bart Torvik) and we’re getting nearly double digits here! We also like that the Orange were able to already play a game here yesterday and get acclimated. They beat Florida State despite making only 2 of 14 three pointers and just 12 of their 22 FT attempts, both well below their season averages. We think Syracuse gives SMU all they can handle here in a game that should be much closer than double digits.

#659 ASA PLAY ON Kansas State +5.5 over Baylor, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - KSU started the Big 12 season with a 1-6 record but they’ve since won 9 of their last 14 games including wins over Kansas, Arizona, and Iowa State.  They are getting healthy with starter Hawkins is back in the line up after missing 3 games and 2 of those were losses.  Since late January, KSU rates better than this Baylor team at 29th in the country compared to 33rd (per Bart Torvik).  The Wildcats have been lock down defensively during that stretch with the 2nd best defensive efficiency numbers in the country since January 24th.  It took the Cats and head coach Jerome Tang some time to get their talented transfers on the same page but now they are humming and can make a run in this tourney.  Baylor has limped into this tournament losing 5 of their last 8 games since losing starting center Ojianwuna for the season to an injury.  Two of those three wins came by 3 points.  In their lone meeting this season @ Baylor, the Bears won by 8 points but made 12 more FT’s and only had 4 turnovers in the game.  With those numbers they should have handled KSU easily by double digits but they never led that game by more than 9 points (KSU had a 12 point lead at one point).  The Bears continue to be overvalued by the markets with an 0-6-2 ATS run and a spread record of 9-18-2 on the season.  Too many points here as we give Kansas State a decent shot at winning this game outright.

#663/664 ASA PLAY ON Under 138.5 Points - Charlotte vs Rice, Wednesday at 1 PM ET - These 2 met twice this season in 2 very slow paced games and we expect the same on Wednesday. In their first meeting Rice won 66-58 in a game that had only 57 possessions. The Owls averaged 1.19 PPP in that win which is way above their AAC average of 1.08. Rice averaged only 0.96 PPP which was good but not far off their 1.03 PPP in conference play. The teams combined to shoot almost 42% which is dead on their season averages. The 2nd meeting only had 60 possessions but the 2 offenses went crazy for a 78-75 final score. They averaged 1.23 and 1.28 PPP which is WAY above their averages which we posted above. They also combined to make 23 of 47 three pointers and 38 made FT’s. The 49 attempts FT’s in the 2nd meeting were 10 more than these 2 allow combined on the season. Definitely an outlier offensive performance from both teams. Both teams rank outside the top 300 nationally in offensive FG%. Along with that they rank 298th and 183rd in 3 point FG% so we don’t look for a lights out shooting game on a neutral site in Denton, TX. If they don’t send each other to the FT line 50 times like the 2nd meeting, this should stay in the high 120’s, low 130’s. Under.

#648 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -110 over Virginia, Wednesday at 12 PM ET - The Yellow Jackets have played really solid since late January winning 8 of their final 12 games including wins over Clemson & Louisville who tied for 2nd place in the ACC. They are coming off one of their more embarrassing performances of the season getting held to just 43 points @ Wake Forest (69-43 loss). Tech’s 43 points, 29.6% shooting from the floor and 13% from 3-point range against Wake Forest were all season lows and we expect a bounce back on Wednesday. UVA finished the ACC season with an 8-12 record and they had only 1 win vs a conference foe that finished the season with a winning ACC record. The Cavs 2nd best win of the conference season was at home vs this Georgia Tech team which was their only meeting of the season. UVA won that game 75-61 and they caught Tech in a flat spot coming off their back to back wins over Clemson & Louisville. The Cavs simply had one of those nights offensively averaging 1.27 PPP (they average 1.07 PPP) in that win which was their 2nd highest mark of the conference season. That was vs a GT defense that has been very good ranking 5th in the ACC allowing 1.05 PPP. You can bet the Jackets will be extra focused defensively after their poor performance over the weekend and that game @ Virginia still in the back of their minds. Believe it or not, they have a huge advantage on that end of the court as the Cavs rank 16th out of 18 ACC teams in defensive efficiency. On top of that, Virginia is the worst rebounding team in the league, the lowest scoring team in conference play average 66 PPG, and they rarely get to the FT line (324th nationally in percentage of points from the charity stripe). Tech is the better team, off one of their worst performances of the year, and we’re getting them near a pick-em here in a big revenge spot. We’ll take Georgia Tech.

#629/630 ASA PLAY ON Over 145.5 Points – Montana State vs Northern Colorado, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We’re getting some value on this total in our opinion. These 2 faced off twice this season and the totals set in those games were 152.5 and 149.5 and now we’re getting a total set 2+ possessions lower than that. Their first meeting was high scoring with NCU winning 83-82 coming back from 20 points down to pick up the road win. The more recent meeting in February ended with a final of 73-66 with NCU again coming out on top. In that game both teams played below their season offensive efficiency numbers (conference play) and by a decent margin. They combined to shoot barely 40% from the field which was also well below their season averages of 51% for NCU and 46% for MSU. Even with the offensive struggles, they still nearly got to 140 and this total is only 5 to 6 points higher than that. Montana State’s offense has been really good their last 3 games since benching leading scorer, big man Brandon Walker who was a high usage, ball stopper when it came to offensive ball movement. Since his benching, the Bobcats have topped their season PPP average (efficiency) in each of those 3 games. They are shooting 53% during that stretch while putting g up 81 PPG. They really don’t need to come close to those numbers in this game for it to go Over, just keep playing well offensively which we expect them to do. NCU is one of the top shooting teams in the nation at 51% (#1 in the country) and 38% from beyond the arc (28th in the nation). They average 81 PPG on the season and they’ve put up at least 75 points in 13 of their 18 Big Sky games so far this season. The Bears last 2 games were fairly low scoring, however they were both vs Weber State who is a slow paced team with a bad offense (275th in offensive efficiency). Prior to that NCU had 4 straight games that reached at least 153 total points. This should be a close game so we don’t anticipate one team grabbing a big lead and coasting, both will have to “keep up” offensively. Over is the play in this Big Sky semifinal game.

#612 ASA PLAY ON Virginia Tech +3.5 over California, Tuesday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a rough spot for a Cal team that simply isn’t playing all that well. They’ve lost 9 of their last 11 games with their only 2 wins during that run coming at home vs BC and NC State, by far the 2 lowest rated teams in the ACC. The Bears have been on the road since Monday, March 3rd not heading home for 9 straight days. They played, and were blown out, @ Louisville last Wednesday, then lost in 3 OT’s @ Notre Dame on Saturday now playing in Charlotte just a few days later. In their loss @ ND, the Bears never had a lead in the 2nd half but were able to push the game to OT (3 of them in fact). They had 3 starters play 50+ minutes in that loss (and one played 44+ minutes) so we’re expecting a tired team for this afternoon tilt. After a terrible start to the ACC season, the Hokies went 5-6 down the stretch with 4 wins coming on the road. That actually had 5 true road wins this season (5-5 record) while Cal was 2-11 on the road this season. One of Va Tech’s road wins came @ Cal as they topped the Bears 71-68 in their only meeting this year despite the fact the Bears outscored the Hokies by 15 points from 3 + FT line. Not an ideal situation for a Cal team that ranks outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive FG%. The Bears haven’t been favored in a road or neutral game this season and in fact the last time they were laying points away from home was in November of 2022. We don’t think they should be laying points in this one. Let’s take the points with Virginia Tech in this one.

#837 ASA PLAY ON Wofford +1.5 over Furman, Monday at 7 PM ET - These 2 just played on March 1st to close out the regular season and Furman pulled the road upset winning by a final score of 78-75. The Paladins outscored Wofford by 12 points from 3 and FT line yet the game still went to the wire. Wofford shot just 27% from deep in that game while Furman hit 40% of their triples. What kept the Terriers in the game? Rebounding. They are the top rebounding team in the Southern Conference by a wide margin ranking #1 on the offensive and defensive glass. They were +15 on the glass in that loss and pulled in 46% of their missed shots. In the first meeting the Terriers had a similar edge on the glass and shot the ball much better in a 19 point win on the road. In their 2 meetings, Wofford was +32 on the boards and pulled down a whopping 37 offensive rebounds. Despite finishing 1 game below Furman in the SoCon regular season standings, Wofford is rated as the better team (per KenPom) and getting points here. They are also coming off a blowout win yesterday with not a single player logging over 28 minutes and in their 2 games in this tourney (Sat & Sun) only 1 player played more than 30 minutes. Furman, on the other hand, had to go to OT last night vs Chattanooga and picked up a tight win vs a very good Mocs team that was playing without their 2nd leading scorer. Wofford had the better offensive efficiency numbers in conference play this year while on the defensive end the numbers for these 2 teams were almost identical efficiency wise. If they play to their averages and Wofford dominates the boards as we expect, the Terriers will win this game.

#832 ASA PLAY ON Towson -6 over Delaware, Monday at 6 PM ET - Towson won the CAA by 2 full games and topped this Delaware team twice.  One of those wins was by 10 points and the other by 5 in a game they led by 10 with 3:00 minutes remaining.  The Tigers led both games by double digits while Delaware’s largest lead in either game was just 6 points.  Situationally Towson gets a huge edge here.  They are playing their 2nd game in 2 days and had 8 guys play double digit minutes yesterday while the Blue Hens are playing their 4th game in 4 days in this CAA tourney with a short bench (336th in bench minutes).  They had lost 11 of their previous 12 games entering the conference tourney and they’ve simply gotten red hot from beyond the arc.  In yesterday’s easy win over W&M, the Hens scored 100 points and shot a ridiculous 63% from deep on 29 attempts. In their 3 tourney games they are hitting just over 49% of their 3’s.  While they are a solid 3 point shooting team on the season, we expect the Hens to come back to earth here with tired legs vs a Towson defense that ranks 4th in the CAA defending the arc and held Delaware to under 32% from deep in their 2 meetings.  Towson should get plenty of extra opportunities as we expect them to dominate the glass vs a poor rebounding team that should have weary legs.  The Tigers rank in the top 35 nationally in offensive rebounding while the Blue Hens are outside the top 300 in both offensive and defensive rebounding.  In their 2 meetings Towson was +24 on the boards including +16 on the offensive glass.  They also turned the ball over at a lower rate (21st nationally in offensive turnover percentage) so the shot volume in this game should be heavily in favor of Towson.  The only downside to this game is the Tigers are not a great FT shooting team but that may not matter if this one isn’t really close late as we don’t expect it to be.  Lay it in this one.

#783 ASA PLAY ON Minnesota +5.5 over Rutgers, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Minnesota has been on an impressive run since mid January going 7-6 during that stretch after starting the Big 10 season 0-6. Even more impressive, they’ve been very good in the road winning 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Their only road loss since January 14th was @ Michigan State who just clinched the Big 10 regular season title. The Gophs are one of just 5 Big 10 teams that have a winning record on the road for the season. Rutgers has 5 home losses already this season so they are far from invincible at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Knights have 7 conference wins and 5 have come by 7 points or less so they struggle to win by margin. They are just 4-5 SU at home vs Big 10 opponents this season with a point differential of -21. Tough to lay 2 possessions worth points with a Rutgers defense that ranks outside the top 300 in FG% allowed, PPG allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed (actually 299th in this stat). Minny has covered 9 of their last 13 as a dog while Rutgers is just 4-7 ATS as a chalk this season and has only been favored 3 times in Big 10 play this year so a role this team is not used to. The Gophers have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and even if they don’t get a W here, we expect the game to go to the wire so we’ll take the points.

#710 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -6 over Duquesne, Saturday at 8 PM ET - We were on St Louis last Saturday at home and they delivered with a huge 98-67 win over Loyola Chicago, a team that ranks 10 spots higher than this Duquesne squad per KenPom. The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 13-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 6-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense and 2nd in eFG% defense. The Billikens sit at 10-7 in league play and the Dukes are just 8-9 despite playing the easier schedule. Duquesne is just 2-7 SU on the road this season and they struggle to score averaging just 67 PPG away from home on 42% shooting. That’s not a great recipe vs STL at home who averages nearly 80 PPG and shoots 48% overall and 38% from deep. Duquesne is coming off their biggest game of the season hosting 1st place VCU a game they lost by 9. Could be a letdown spot for them in their final game of the season and away from home. STL should have some extra incentive after losing @ Dayton on Tuesday, a game they led by 13 at halftime. The Billikens are the better shooting team (FG% and PPG), the better defensive team (FG% and PPG allowed) and they should have a distinct edge at the FT line as the Dukes send teams to the charity stripe a lot (last in the A10 in opponent’s percentage of points from the FT line). Let’s lay it with St Louis at home.

#690 ASA PLAY ON WVU -7.5 over UCF, Saturday at 5 PM ET - We faded UCF on the road last Saturday @ TCU and came up with a nice win with the Frogs winning by 9. We’ll go against the Golden Knights again on the road where they’ve been flat out bad this season. They are 2-7 SU on the road this season and they’ve lost 6 straight road games and they’ve won only 3 of their last 11 games. Those 3 wins all came at home vs Utah, Oklahoma St, and KSU who all have losing records in the Big 12. We expect UCF to be flat for this somewhat meaningless game after they won on Senior Night at home on Wednesday. That was their big game. The Knights are most likely going to be seeded in the 12 to 13 range for the upcoming Big 12 tourney. WVU has lots of motivation in this one. It’s their home finale and they will honor 6 seniors playing their final game. They also can ill afford a loss as they attempt to make the NCAA tourney and they are currently seeded around a 9 or 10 seed by most bracketologists so far from a lock. They face a UCF offense that is not a great shooting team (320th in FG%) and this WVU defense is a terrible match up for them as they allow only 58 PPG at home on 39% shooting. Huge defensive edge for the Mountaineers in this game as they rank 16th nationally in defensive efficiency while UCF ranks 16th in the CONFERENCE (dead last) in defensive efficiency. The Knights will also be without 2 key players on Saturday with starting guard Ivy-Curry (13 PPG) and key reserve Mikey Williams both injured. A bad shooting team that is also not good defensively makes it really tough to win on the road. We think the Knights will be simply playing out the regular season here and focusing on the Big 12 tourney while WVU will have lots of motivation. Lay it.

#632 ASA PLAY ON Tennessee -15.5 over South Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - South Carolina is locked into the #16 seed (last) in the SEC tourney with a 2-16 conference record and nothing to play for in this game. Our guess is they are as flat as a pancake in this one playing away from home with nothing really to play for as next Wednesday starts their “new” season. On top of that, the Gamecocks have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. They are 0-8 SU on the road in SEC play and 1-9 SU on the season with their only win coming @ Boston College who currently sits with a 4-15 record in the ACC. Their average score on the road PPG margin this year is -16 PPG allowing 80 PPG while scoring just 64 PPG. Here are some the South Carolina’s road results this season…lost by 30 @ Missouri, lost by 23 @ Kentucky, lost by 21 @ Florida, lost by 35 @ Mississippi St, lost by 20 @ Oklahoma and the Vols are rated higher than all of those teams with the exception of the Gators. Every road loss they’ve had this season has been by double digits with the exception of their game @ Vandy. The Vols will be very motivated on Senior Day coming off a 2 point loss @ Ole Miss. Head coach Rick Barnes called his team out for being “soft” in that game and UT guard Jordan Gainey didn’t disagree. “We’re a tough group of guys,” Tennessee senior guard Jordan Gainey said after the game, “and whenever we get out toughed, it’s personal. It felt more personal than anything because they did the things we usually do.” Bad news for South Carolina who will really struggle offensively in this game. The Vols allow just 60 PPG at home on 37% shooting and they will bring extra energy to this one. On top of that, the Gamecocks upset Tennessee here last year (SC was MUCH better a year ago) and the Vols haven’t forgotten that one. A win here locks up a double bye in the SEC tourney for Tennessee and this has the makings of a blowout. The Vols take out their frustrations in the home finale and roll to a huge win.

#841/842 ASA PLAY ON Under 141.5 Points – Colorado State vs Boise State, Friday at 10 PM ET - These 2 MWC rivals met in late January and CSU won 75-72 with the total set at 140. There were only 62 possessions in that game but both offenses performed above their average efficiency in conference play. They scored 20 points in the final 3:00 minutes (game was at 127 with just over 3:00 remaining) to push it over. They combined to shoot 49% overall and 40.5% from beyond the arc, both above their season averages. This is a battle for 2nd place in the MWC and we expect the intensity level on the defensive end to be high for this match up in another low possession game. Both teams are playing outstanding right now on the defensive end of the court. Per Haslam Metrics, CSU has outperformed their expected defensive metrics in 5 of their last 6 games while Boise has done the same in 7 of their last 10 games. Per Bart Torvik analytics, since mid February, CSU ranks in the top 10 nationally in defensive efficiency and Boise in the top 60. The Rams are on a 6 game winning streak in which they’ve allowed an average of 59 PPG. Boise has allowed just 62 PPG over their last 10 games and they’ve allowed just 1 team to reach 70 points during that run. CSU has allowed only 3 teams to reach 70 points in their last 10 games. We expect another low possession game (241st and 265th in adjusted tempo) with not a lot of scoring opportunities (these 2 rank 294th and 312th in shot attempts per game). We don’t think either team tops 70 in this game which lands us on the Under.

#838 ASA PLAY ON Illinois -4 over Purdue, Friday at 8 PM ET - We were on the Illini on Sunday as a dog @ Michigan and they rolled to an easy 20 point win. As we mentioned in our analysis for that game, we feel Illinois is undervalued as they approach the end of the regular season. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season however they Illini are now getting healthy. They finally had everyone back in the line up last week and they blasted both Iowa and Michigan by 20 points. They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. The Boilers are coming off back to back home wins vs UCLA & Rutgers but on the road it’s been a different story this season. They are 5-5 SU away from home but as of late they’ve lost 3 in a row away from home @ Michigan, @ Michigan St, and @ Indiana. The Boilers average 85 PPG at home on 1.24 PPP but on the road that drops like a rock in the ocean with an average of 70 PPG on 1.05 PPP. Their defense has been a sieve inside the arc ranking 337th and dead last in the Big 10 defending inside. That’s a problem vs a full strength Illinois team that has been great inside ranking 14th nationally in 2 point FG%. That inside advantage for the Illini will also pay off on the boards where they rank inside the top 40 in both offensive and defensive rebounding with Purdue ranking outside the top 150 in both. PU will have to be red hot from deep to have a chance here and we like Illinois to win and cover in their home finale.

#306504 ASA PLAY ON Radford -3.5 over Presbyterian, Friday at 2:30 PM ET - These 2 Big South rivals split 2 games this season with Radford winning on the road by 13 and Presbyterian winning on the road on Feb 22nd by 7. In the most recent meeting @ Radford in late February PU averaged 1.27 PPP, way above their season average of 1.05 PP and made 27 of 32 FT’s (84%) which was unlikely from a team that shoots 69% from the foul line this season. Presbyterian also outrebounded Radford, the much better rebounding game. So there were definitely some outliers in their most recent match up and the better team, Radford has some extra motivation after losing at home late in the season. Radford finished 4th in the conference but is rated by KenPom as the #2 team in the Big South behind only High Point, the 1st place team in the conference. 6 of Radford’s 7 conference losses came by 7 points or fewer with their only loss by more than that margin was vs High Point, the best team in the league. PU finished with a losing Big South record at 7-9 and over half of those losses (5) were by double digits. Radford ranks 2nd in the Big South in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they are the top 3 point shooting team in the conference hitting almost 40% of their triples. They also hit nearly 80% of their FT’s in conference play and almost 24% of their points come from the charity stripe (15th nationally). The most recent match up had a number of outliers including a bad FT shooting team Presbyterian hitting 12 more FT’s than Radford, and if everything plays to the averages here, Radford covers this number.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 149.5 Points – Illinois Chicago vs Valparaiso, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - These 2 just played to close out the regular season on Sunday and hit 150 total points with UIC winning 77-73.  That game had 75 possessions, which was to be expected with these teams ranking 3rd and 4th in Horizon League tempo.  They got to 150 points despite the offensive efficiency numbers being quite low with UIC averaging 1.01 PPP (they average 1.08) and Valpo put up just 0.96 (they average 1.07).  That was their 2nd meeting of the season with the first one hitting 155 total points (with UIC winning 81-74).  In the 2 meetings they shot just 43% (108 of 250) overall and 33% from beyond the arc (27 of 81) so nothing great.  In fact those numbers are below both team’s season average and both meetings still pushed into the 150’s.  Defensively both teams rank outside the top 200 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  If these teams step it up on offense and just hit their averages, this should get well into the 150’s or higher.

#815 ASA PLAY ON Wright State +6.5 over Robert Morris, Thursday at 7 PM ET - This is the team #1 seed Robert Morris did not want to see in the Horizon League tourney. Wright State finished 8-12 in the conference but they are much better than their record and a dangerous team in this tourney. They are a fantastic offensive team that ranks 14th nationally in FG% and 6th in the country in 3 point FG%. They’d have a much better record but they’ve lost a bunch of really close games with a 3-9 SU record this year in games decided by 6 points or less. 9 of their losses this season have come by 4 points or fewer or in OT. In their 2 games vs Robert Morris this season, Wright State won by 2 at home and lost by 3 on the road and last season the Raiders won both games big by 25 & 30 points. RM is a very solid overall defensive team but their Achilles heel is defending the arc where they rank 214th nationally. WSU shot nearly 50% from beyond the arc in their 2 meetings combined and that’ll be a problem for RM again in this game. Wright just hit 14 of 30 from 3 point land on Monday in their round one 98-85 win over IU Indy. The Colonials do come into this tourney winning 13 of their last 14 games, however their one loss during that stretch was vs this Wright State team. It’s not a great match up for the #1 seed Robert Morris and we look for another close game. While Robert Morris has the better record this season, Wright State has been the better program with 9 consecutive winning seasons prior to this year while the Colonials are sitting on their first winning season since 2020. Take the points.

#707/708 ASA PLAY ON OVER 160.5 Points - Missouri vs Oklahoma, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - One very interesting aspect of this match up is that this total is set 9 points higher than the first meeting on February 12th despite that game going Under the Total. That’s a tip off in our opinion. When these to met @ Mizzou the final score was 82-58 in favor of the Tigers so well Under that posted total which was 152. Both teams played well under their offensive efficiency averages in that game (PPP) with Missouri putting up 1.11 PPP (they average 1.26) and Oklahoma 0.78 PPP (they average 1.18). The teams combined to make only 9 three point shots in 34 attempts (26%). On the season they combine to average 18 three point makes per game and both shoot around 37% from deep so that meeting was way below expectation. Both like to play up tempo and there were 74 possession in the first meeting and we’d expect a similar number here. The Sooners offense averages 83 PPG at home and they rank in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. Defense is not their specialty as they’ve allowed at least 80 points in 7 of their last 80 games. The Missouri offense ranks 5th in the country in offensive efficiency and they’ve scored at least 80 points in 9 of their last 10 games. While we expect both offenses to play to a much higher efficiency in this game, the one thing we can probably count on is a lot of points from the FT line. In the first game they combined to make 43 FT’s which isn’t a surprise as they each rank in the top 15 nationally in FT’s made per game. If they duplicate, or even get close, to that number while pushing their averages in offensive efficiency, this should be an easy over. Both get to at least 80 points pushing this one Over.

#681 ASA PLAY ON Maryland +2.5 over Michigan, Wednesday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on Illinois +3 @ Michigan on Sunday and the Illini destroyed the Wolverines 93-73. We’re on the Terps tonight, a team that rates better than that Illinois team and they sit 15 spots higher than Michigan in KenPom’s rankings. The Terps are surging winning 9 of their last 11 games with both of those losses coming by 3 points vs Ohio St and Michigan St. The Wolverines are trending down losing 2 of their last 4 games with their 2 wins during that stretch coming by 2 points vs Rutgers and by 3 vs Nebraska. As we’ve stated in our other Michigan write ups, this team has not won a game by more than 4 points since January 12th. They are now in 2nd place in the Big 10 behind MSU, but their PPG margin in conference play in barely above water at +0.9 PPP which is 7th in the league. Maryland is 4th in the conference in that state at +6.8 PPG. The knock on the Terps early in the season was they couldn’t win on the road. That narrative is now gone as they’ve won 4 of their last 5 road games with their only loss during that stretch coming by 3 points @ OSU in a game Maryland led by 17 points. The Buckeyes first lead in the 2nd half in that game was with under 2:00 minutes remaining. Maryland is simply the better team, and not by a small margin, across the board in this game. They have better efficiency numbers both offensively and defensively, shoot it better from 3, turn the ball over at a much lower rate (Michigan is last in the Big 10 in offensive turnover percentage), and Maryland is better from the FT line. Michigan has a huge revenge game on deck @ MSU and they remain a money burner as a favorite with a 3-11 ATS record in Big 10 play. We like Maryland to win this game outright.

#652 ASA PLAY ON Virginia -4 over Florida State, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - UVA began the ACC season with a 1-6 record and they’ve since gone 6-5 to pull into a tie with FSU and Pitt with a 7-11 conference mark. FSU is headed in the other direction losing 8 of their last 11 games with a lame duck (retiring at the end of the season) coach Leonard Hamilton and they’ve played below their expected efficiency in 4 of their last 5 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Cavs are the much better 3 point shooting team ranking in the top 25 nationally at almost 38% while FSU struggles from deep (280th nationally). They make an average of only 6 triples per game which ranks 327th and on the road they make closer to 5 per game. Adding fuel to the fire, the Noles are a poor 3 point defensive team ranking 12th in ACC games giving up almost 37% from deep. Needless to say, we expect the home team to have a big advantage from beyond the arc in this game. The Noles are just 2-8 SU on the road this season with one of those wins coming @ Miami, the worst team in the ACC. Their other win came by 2 points @ Wake Forest in a game they trailed by 16 points with just 8:00 remaining and outscored the Deacs 28-9 from that point on. FSU wants to play fast and when they’ve faced the slowest paced teams in the ACC and forced them to play in a half court game, they haven’t done well. There are 5 teams in the conference that rank 250th or lower nationally in adjusted tempo (UVA, Clemson, NC State, Va Tech, and Notre Dame) and FSU has a record of 1-4 SU in those games. UVA is one of the slowest teams in the country (360th in adjusted tempo) and they will force the Seminoles to play at a pace they do not like. If this is close late, the Cavs have made nearly 78% of their FT’s in ACC play. It’s their final home game of the season and we expect a huge effort from UVA. Not so sure about FSU on the road. Lay it.

#628 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech -9 over Miami, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Tech should have a huge motivation edge in this game as they played their final home tilt of the season and they are fighting to stay in 8th place to avoid the first day games (seeds 10 thru 15 play the first day).  A win tonight would give the Yellow Jackets their 10th ACC win for the first time in the last 4 seasons.  They have 13 home wins and have won 5 in a row at home.  They’re coming off a 87-62 win here over the weekend vs NC State and they’ve easily handled the lowest rated teams in the conference here at home.  The 5 lowest rated teams in the league are Miami, NC State, Boston College, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse and GT is 3-0 at home vs that grouping winning by an average margin of +18 PPG.  Keep in mind Miami is the worst of all of those teams.  On the other side of the court, Miami was just eliminated from the ACC tourney with their blowout loss @ UNC over the weekend so they have nothing to play for.  The Canes have been terrible all season (2-16 ACC record) and if they decide to bring the intensity for one final game, our guess would be it is this weekend when they host NC State and have a chance to end the season with a home win.  The Canes are 0-9 SU on the road losing by an average of 15 PPG.  Their defense has been atrocious ranking 363rd in opponent FG% and 364th defending the arc and that’s out of 364 D1 teams.  Miami has to be distracted with interim coach Bill Courtney gone after these final 2 games and rumors swirling about who will be the next head coach (sounds like Duke assistant Jai Lucas has the inside track).  They may also be without starting C Kidd (12 PPG and 7 RPG) who has an injured ankle and missed their game over the weekend.  The Canes are 9-20 ATS and this one has blowout potential.

#863/864 ASA PLAY ON Under 131.5 Points - UCLA vs Northwestern, Monday at 9 PM ET - This game should have very few offensive possessions with these teams ranking 317th and 318th in adjusted tempo, 16th and 17th in conference play only out of 18 teams. NW has slowed the pace down even more since losing their 2nd and 3rd leading scorers (Barnhizer & Leach) for the season to injuries. The only way they can compete after losing that offensive firepower, those 2 combined to average 32 PPG, is to turn their games into slugfests which is exactly what they’ve done. After going on a big run of Overs this season, the Cats have now gone Under the total in 3 of their last 4 games. Their most recent game vs Iowa was a snapshot of exactly how they want to play. The Hawkeyes are one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and are averaging 82 PPG on the year which puts them in the top 15 nationally. Last Friday night, the Cats slowed their game with Iowa to a crawl (just 61 possessions) and held the high scoring Hawks to just 57 points (68-57 final score). The NW defense has been lights out holding 4 straight opponents to 1.00 PPP or less holding those 4 opponents to 59 PPG. The Wildcat offense has actually played OK during that stretch averaging 69 PPG, however now they run into a physical UCLA defense that has much better numbers efficiency wise (17th nationally in defensive efficiency) than any of NW’s recent opponents. The Bruins have held 7 of their last 10 opponents to 68 points or fewer with only Purdue, Illinois, and USC topping that number. Those offenses rank 1st, 3rd and 8th in offensive efficiency in the Big 10. Tonight the Bruins face a Northwestern offense thar ranks 18th (dead last) in the conference in eFG% and that was with 2 of their top scorers playing the vast majority of the season to this point. With those 2 gone, we don’t see much success for the Cats offense in this one. This should be a low possession, low scoring game with both defenses dominating. Take the Under.

ASA PLAY ON Illinois +3.5 over Michigan, Sunday at 3:45 PM ET - We faded Michigan as a 10 point favorite earlier this week at home vs Rutgers and cashed easily with the Wolverines winning by 2 points on a 3 point shot at the buzzer. They trailed for most of the game vs a lower tier Big 10 team and Michigan simply cannot be trusted as a favorite. They are tied for 1st place in the conference with a 14-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was over a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG margin beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. Illinois sits in 7th place in the Big 10 but they are vastly undervalued in our opinion. They’ve dealt with injuries and illness for much of the conference season prompting head coach Brad Underwood to state he’s never seen anything like this in all of his years of coaching. However, the Illini are now getting healthy. They had everyone back in the line up earlier this week and blasted Iowa by 20 points (we were on Illinois for that one). They rank in the top 5 in the conference in both offensive and defensive efficiency despite missing a number of players on and off throughout the season. When they were heathy, this team rolled Oregon and Indiana on the road (by 32 and 25 points) and nearly upset MSU on the road losing by 2. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-10 ATS. We like Illinois to win this game on Sunday.

ASA PLAY ON Under 147.5 Points – Wisconsin vs Michigan State, Sunday at 1:30 PM ET - MSU has been an Under machine with 19 Unders in their 28 games so far this season and they are 6-2 to the Under at home in Big 10 play.  They have the top defense in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed.  Sparty is allowing just 66 PPG in league play (#1 in the conference) and they allow that same number at home for the entire season.  Sparty has been able to slow down some very high level offenses this season limiting Illinois to 65, Purdue to 66, Michigan to 62, and Maryland to 55, all top 5 Big 10 offenses (efficiency).  MSU is one of the slower paced teams in the conference (14th in adjusted tempo) and while Wisconsin is playing faster this year, they still rank just 11th in the Big 10 in adjusted tempo.  The Badger defense struggled at times early in the season, but they’ve really played well over the last month and half or so vaulting all the way up to 3rd in the conference in defensive efficiency and 4th in defensive scoring allowed.  Since late January the Wisconsin defense is rated in the top 25 in efficiency per Bart Torvik.  They’ve held 10 of their last 14 opponents to less than 70 points.  This game has huge implications in the race for the Big 10 Title with MSU in 1st place and Wisconsin in 3rd.  We think defense rules the day in this one.  These 2 have only reached 150 points twice in their last 10 meetings and the average total points scored in those match ups is just 136.  Take the Under.

#676 ASA PLAY ON TCU -3 over UCF, Saturday at 4 PM ET - TCU has played #1 most difficult Big 12 schedule to date. UCF has played an easier schedule (5th SOS in conference) yet TCU has the better record at 8-9 in Big 12 play compared to 6-11 for UCF. We’re catching the Horned Frogs on a good bounce back spot at home coming off back to back road losses @ Cincinnati and @ WVU. Now they are back home where they have a 13-2 record with some impressive wins over high level opponents including Texas Tech, BYU, and Xavier. The Golden Knights are off back to back home wins after a 7 game losing streak. Their recent home wins vs Utah and Kansas State were both down to the wire with margins of 4 points. The Utes are the 3rd lowest rated team in the Big12 and fired their coach following that tight loss. KSU went on a nice run winning 6 in a row but have since lost 4 straight and played at UCF without key starter Hawkins (11 PPG and 7 RPG). Now Central Florida goes on the road where they’ve been terrible 2-6 record and they’ve lost 5 straight away from home. TCU will be extra motivated for this one of their worst losses of the season was @ UCF losing 85-58 as a 4 point dog. The Frogs shot 20 triples in that game and made ONE! They were outscored in that game by 43 points from the 3 point line + FT line. Just one of those games where everything went wrong for TCU. The Knights are a poor shooting team ranking 312th in FG% and on the other end they rank dead last in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency. Not a good recipe for success on the road. We’ll lay the small number here with the Horned Frogs.

#672 ASA PLAY ON St Louis -2.5 over Loyola, Saturday at 4 PM ET - These 2 met two weeks ago and we were on Loyola -2.5 in that game and picked up a win with the Ramblers winning by 9. However, it was much closer than that final score as the game was actually tied with 3:00 minutes remaining. Loyola shot a higher percentage in that game and made 50% of their 3’s (12 of 24). We don’t expect a repeat performance from deep for Loyola as St Louis leads the conference defending the arc allowing only 30% on the season (A10 games). The Billikens have struggled all year on the road but at home they have been very good with a 12-3 SU record including a win over A10 leading VCU who only has 2 conference losses this season. They are 5-2 ATS at home in league play. The Billikens have played the #1 strength of schedule in conference play yet they still rank 1st in eFG% offense AND defense. The Ramblers have a losing record on the road in conference play (3-4 SU) and their 3 road wins have come vs LaSalle, Richmond, and Davidson. The first 2 are the lowest rated teams in the A10 and Davidson has a 6-9 league record. Loyola has a negative point differential on the road this season while STL is outscoring their opponents by +11 PPG at home. The Ramblers offense is averaging just 0.985 PPP on the road (1.08 at home) while allowing 1.042 PPP (they allow 0.933 at home). Quick revenge for STL in a game that was close for 37 minutes on the road just 2 weeks ago. Lay it.

#642 ASA PLAY ON Ole Miss -7.5 over Oklahoma, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Ole Miss is in must win mode at home coming off 3 straight losses including a 30 point setback at #1 Auburn on Wednesday night. It was an embarrassing performance, especially on the defensive end where they allowed the Tigers to score 1.50 PPP while shooting 60% from the field. A definite outlier as the Mississippi defense on the season allows 0.95 PPP (21st nationally) and just 42% from the field. You can bet that head coach Chris Beard, a defensive specialist, will have this team ready to go full speed ahead on Saturday. They are facing a down trending Oklahoma team that has lost 6 of their last 7 games and the Sooners are coming off a gut wrenching 1 point home loss vs Kentucky who scored the go ahead bucket with only a few seconds remaining. After that tough loss OU goes on the road where they’ve been really poor this season with a 1-6 record. Their numbers drop off a cliff away from home where they have lost by an average of 17 PPG while scoring just 66 PPG and giving up 83 PPG. The Sooners are shooting only 39% away from home and all but 1 of their SEC road losses have come by double digits. We expect with the Ole Miss defense being completely focused here that the Oklahoma offense will really struggle in this game. The Rebs should also get plenty of extra possessions in this game as they rarely turn the ball over (#2 nationally in offensive turnover percentage) while OU coughs the ball up quite often ranking 14th in the SEC in that key stat. Ole Miss needs a ‘get right’ game as they’ve dropped to a projected 8 seed in the NCAA after their rough 3 game stretch. The Rebels win by double digits.

#890 ASA PLAY ON Purdue -5.5 over UCLA, Friday at 8 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue at the bottom of the market and in a must win spot after 4 straight losses. 3 of those losses were on the road and their 1 home setback during this stretch was vs Wisconsin who rates as the Big 10’s best team per KenPom. The Boilers were favored by more vs the Badgers (-6) than they currently are vs UCLA (-5 at the open) despite Wisconsin being ranked 20 spots higher than the Bruins per KenPom. Another recent comparison was UCLA’s trip to Illinois where they were 7 point dogs and now only 5 vs Purdue despite the Boilers being the higher rated team. We’re getting some home value with PU because of their losing streak. The Bruins game @ Illinois looks like a down to the wire affair if you simply look at the final score which was 83-78 but the fact is the Illini led that game by 16 points with 4:00 minutes remaining and never trailed once in the contest. UCLA is 4-4 on the road this season and 2 of those wins were short trips to lower tier Big 10 teams USC and Washington. When they’ve had to make long travel going east, the Bruins have losses @ Illinois, @ Rutgers, @ Nebraska, and @ Maryland. On the road averages only 68 PPG (they average 80 PPG at home) on just 0.994 PPP (they average 1.177 PPP at home). The Boilermakers are 28-2 SU at home since the start of last season and Mackey Arena is widely respected as the most difficult road venue in the Big 10. UCLA has never made the trek to Mackey so unfamiliar territory for the Bruins. These 2 are tied in 4th place in the conference with 11-5 record, however Purdue has played the more difficult slate and they have better offensive and defensive efficiency numbers in league play. We like the desperate Boilers to win and cover at home on Friday night.

#819 ASA PLAY ON Rutgers +10.5 over Michigan, Thursday at 9 PM ET - Too many points here as the Wolverines tend to play close games win or lose. Michigan is tied for 1st in Big Ten (with MSU) with 13-3 record but they rarely beat anyone handily. In fact, the last time they won by more than 4 points was nearly a month and a half ago on Jan 12th. While they do sit in 1st place in the league, they rank just 7th in PPG beating teams in Big 10 play but just +2 PPG. It’s also not an ideal spot for the Wolverines as they’ve already beaten Rutgers and have a HUGE game on deck with Illinois so a look ahead is highly possible. In that first meeting Michigan won on the road by 3 points but Rutgers played without their leading scorer Dylan Harper (5th leading scorer in the conference) who averages just under 20 PPG. Speaking of Harper, the Scarlet Knights are obviously much better with him in the line up and he’s been in and out all season with injuries and illness. They are 7-10 in Big 10 play, however when Harper is healthy they are 6-6 so a .500 SU record. Rutgers has been very competitive with a PPG margin in the conference of -4 PPG and of their 14 losses (14-14 overall record) the Knights have only lost 2 of those games by more than 14 points. Because Michigan plays close games, they’ve been dreadful in conference as a favorite. In fact, when favored by -3 or more in league play, the Wolverines are 1-9 ATS. We think Rutgers will give Michigan all they can handle here and we’ll take the generous points.

#793/794 ASA PLAY ON Over 160.5 North Dakota vs St Thomas, Thursday at 8 PM ET - St Thomas is back home where their offense has been unstoppable. They are averaging 91 PPG at home, shooting 51% overall and 43% from deep. They are in the top 10 nationally in 3 point FG% and in Summit League play only the Tommies rank #1 in offensive efficiency, eFG%, offensive turnover rate, and they make 78% of their FT’s. Their offense should thrive in this game facing a UND defense that ranks outside the top 350 nationally (out of 364 teams) in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. We expect North Dakota to have success offensively here as well. They are far better offensively than they are defensively averaging 77 PPG and ranking in the top 145 in the country in offensive efficiency. In Summit League play the Fighting Hawks are averaging 80 PPG and have scored at least 70 in every game but 2. They are facing a St Thomas defense that ranks 7th in the Summit in defensive efficiency and 8th defending the arc (out of 9 teams). Both teams also like to play up tempo and in the first meeting they had 72 possessions and 168 total points with STM winning on the road 88-80. In that game St Thomas hit this conference offensive efficiency numbers dead on with 1.22 PPP while UND actually fell short of their 1.14 PPP average and only scored 1.11 PPP. They combined to make 24 three point shots in that game and we would expect similar results as these are the 2 worst teams in the conference defending the arc. We look for both teams to get to at least 80 which would put this Over the Total.

#754 ASA PLAY ON Oregon State -2.5 over San Francisco, Wednesday at 11 PM ET - This is the Beavers final home game of the season which should bring some extra motivation to this contest. Not that extra motivation is needed as a loss @ USF earlier in this season will take care of that. In the first match up, the Dons won at home 81-70 as a -4.5 point favorite. The box score for San Francisco was ridiculous as they shot 60% overall for the game and 59% from beyond the arc hitting 13 of 22. They’ll have a tough time getting anywhere near those numbers tonight as USF shoots just 41% on the road and 32% from deep barely averaging 1.00 PPP. Along with the Dons hitting everything in sight in the first meeting, OSU was just 1 of 9 from beyond the arc (11%) so they were outscored by a whopping 36 points from beyond the arc and lost by only 11 points on the road. At home, OSU has been outstanding offensively hitting 51% of their shots, 40% of their 3’s and averaging 1.18 PPP which is top 30 in the nation (for home teams). The Beavers poor offensive numbers from the first meeting should rise dramatically at home tonight. The one thing OSU did have an advantage on offense in that meeting was at the FT line where they made 21 to USF’s 14. We anticipate the Beavs will have an advantage again tonight as they get to the FT line more than any team in the WCC (percentage of points from the FT line) while USF sends opponents to the line more than any team in the conference. When Oregon State gets there, they make 80% in WCC play. They are 15-2 at home (14-2 ATS) with their only losses coming vs Oregon (by 3 points) and St Mary’s who already clinched the WCC Title. San Franciso has a losing road record (4-5 SU & 4-4-1 ATS) and a negative point differential away from home on the season. This number is too small and we’ll take advantage of the value with the home team. Take Oregon State.

#746 ASA PLAY ON Arizona State +5 over BYU, Wednesday at 9:30 PM ET - Great spot for ASU to pull the upset here. The Devils had lost 6 in a row, including 3 vs top 12 teams (KenPom) and they finally picked up some momentum with a solid 12 point win @ Kansas State over the weekend. Because of their losing streak, we’re still getting some value here despite the solid road win. BYU recently played @ WVU and @ Cincinnati and the Cougs were 2 point dogs in those 2 games vs teams that rate almost identical to Arizona State but now they’re laying 4 on the road in this game (opening number). It’s a terrible spot for BYU playing their 2nd straight road game after pulling off a big upset @ Arizona late on Saturday night. It was a crazy, controversial ending with BYU getting fouled with just 3 seconds remaining and hitting both FT’s to win by 96-95. The Cougars went crazy on the offensive end hitting 55% overall and 45% of their 3’s (made 13 triples). They also averaged a ridiculous 1.37 PPP, this from a BYU team that is averaging 1.06 PPP on the road this season. Defensively they continued to struggle allowing 1.36 PPP and 54% from the field for Arizona. Not all that surprising as BYU allows opponents to hit nearly 50% and 40% from 3 away from home. They rank 11th in the Big 12 in defensive efficiency, 13th in eFG% and 3 point FG% allowed. BYU has a losing road record (4-5) and they are getting outscored by an average of 5 PPG. Not only do they have a negative point differential on the road, they also have a negative PPP differential (efficiency) and a negative FG% and 3 point FG% differential. We think ASU has a great shot to pull this upset. Take the points.

#631 ASA PLAY ON Georgia Tech +9 over Pittsburgh, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Pitt isn’t playing well enough to be nearly a double digit favorite in this game.  They have won just 4 of their last 13 games and none of those wins have come by more than 11 points and that 11 point win came at home vs Syracuse who is rated as the 3rd worst team in the ACC.  They rank 357th in Haslam Metrics Momentum category (out of 364 teams) solidifying how poor they’ve been playing as of late.  The Panthers are just 2-5-1 ATS as a home favorite in conference play losing 3 of those games outright and they’ve already lost 6 games SU as a chalk this season.  They are ranked 74th nationally per Bart Torvik metrics however since mid January the Panthers are ranked just 131st (14th in the ACC during that stretch) while Georgia Tech is in the top 100 during that time.  During that stretch since mid January Pitt ranks 97th in offensive efficiency, 193rd in defensive efficiency, and 356th defending the 3 point shot.  Tech has won 4 of their last 6 games including topping 2 of the ACC’s best teams, Clemson & Louisville.  The Jackets defense has been very good all season ranking in the top 85 and this month they rank 58th nationally in defensive efficiency.  They’ve done a great job of not fouling ranking #1 in the ACC in opponents percentage of points from the FT line.  We think Tech keeps this game very close and we’ll take the points.

#876 ASA PLAY ON Florida State +3.5 over North Carolina, Monday at 7 PM ET - The Heels have won 3 straight which may look to some like they are surging but those wins came vs Syracuse, NC State, and UVA, all ranked outside the top 100 and 2 of those wins were at home. Their 1 road win during that stretch came by 6 points @ Syracuse (5-11 record in conference play) in a game they outscored the Orange by 27 points from beyond the arc and it was still a down to the wire (2 point game with 40 seconds remaining). Despite that road win vs one of the ACC’s lowest rated teams, the Heels have been poor away from home. They are 0-7-1 ATS away from home this year and lost 4 in a row SU on the road before beating the Cuse. UNC has a losing record on the road and they are getting outscored by 4 PPG away from home. Offensively the Tar Heels average 1.15 PPP (efficiency) at home and that drops to 1.04 on the road. Defensively they allow just 0.96 PPP at home but that jump drastically to 1.09 PPP on the road. FSU has won 3 of their last 5 games with their 2 losses during that stretch coming vs Louisville and Clemson, 2 of the top 3 rated teams on the ACC. Their 8 points loss @ Louisville on Saturday (easy cover for FSU) was fairly impressive to be honest as they were -26 points in that game from the 3 point line and FT line combined and still kept it close vs a very good team on the road. The Noles are 10-4 at home this season with a +7 PPG margin. While UNC’s numbers fall off on the road, FSU’s are much better at home especially on defense where they allow just 0.94 PPP which is the 3rd best mark in the conference. The Noles are one of the tallest teams in the nation and are top 25 in block shot percentage and top 55 in creating turnovers (defensive turnover percentage). We think FSU has a great shot to pull the upset here (not even sure it’s an upset if they do). Take the points.

#858 ASA PLAY ON UCF -2.5 over Utah, Sunday at 4 PM ET - We’re absolutely catch UCF at the bottom of the market after they have lost 7 straight games. We’re also catching Utah off 2 huge home wins over Kansas & Kansas State and now going on the road where they’ve been terrible this season. This isn’t just any road game as the Utes make their furthest trek of the season (over 2,300 miles) to Orlando. Utah is 1-6 SU on the road this season and they are losing those games by an average of 15 PPG. They shoot just 39% on the road while hitting only 28% of their triples and averaging a paltry 61 PPG on only 0.932 PPP. It’s going to be tough for them to keep up with a UCF offense that averages 79 PPG on the season. While the Golden Knights have been in a funk, they are 10-5 at home and all 5 of those losses have come vs teams that rank at least 20 spots higher than Utah per KenPom including high level opponents Houston, BYU, Kansas, and Iowa State. UCF has played the most difficult strength of schedule in league play while Utah has faced the 11th most difficult slate yet still has a losing record in the Big 12. If this game was played a month ago, we’d be looking at UCF laying 2 or 3 more points. We like them to break their losing streak at home on Sunday afternoon.

#835/836 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 points - Marist vs Niagara, Sunday at 2 PM ET - These 2 are each coming off rare high scoring games on Friday evening and we think they get back to their lower scoring ways on Sunday. Marist faced off vs Canisius with a total of 131 and the final score was 89-81 going way over the total. They put up 1.29 and 1.41 PPP which is WAY above their averages of 1.03 and 1.00 PPP. Niagara faced Siena on Friday with the total set at 136 and the final score was 94-60. Niagara didn’t do much offensively with 60 points on 0.90 PPP but their defense was horrendous. Siena, the 3rd most efficient offense in the league, put up 94 points on 1.40 PPP. Two very slow paced teams (both outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo) so we won’t see many possessions here. In their first meeting these 2 scored 132 total points and that was in OT with Marist winning 67-65. At the end of regulation it was 57-57 and they totaled just 65 possessions and that included OT. It wasn’t as if the offenses were terrible either as both hit their average efficiency (PPP) in that game. That total was set at 126.5 so we’re getting some solid value with this opener at 130. These 2 MAAC rivals have gone Under the total in 4 of their last 5 with their only Over being the game in OT earlier this season. Low scoring, low possession game here.

#774 ASA PLAY ON Arkansas +2.5 over Missouri, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Razors are coming off 2 tight road losses vs top 10 teams losing at Auburn by 7 and @ Texas A&M by 8. They had won 3 of 4 prior to that and Arkansas is now in must win mode at home as they sit squarely on the bubble. This is their final regular season “statement” type game for the NCAA tournament committee as their 4 remaining conference games are vs Texas, South Carolina, Vandy, and Mississippi State all ranked outside the top 25 per KenPom. Head coach John Calipari has already said that every game from here on out is a tournament game for his team. They catch Missouri in a huge letdown spot after they upset Bama at home on Wednesday. They caught the Tide in a letdown spot as Alabama was coming off a home loss vs Auburn when the two rivals were ranked #1 and #2 in the AP Poll. On top of that, the Tigers already beat Arkansas handily at home by 18 points so another reason to possibly overlook this game. That first meeting @ Missouri was the Razors 5th consecutive loss as they were playing as poorly as they have all season. However, since that loss, the Razorbacks have been playing much better topping their projected efficiency and 6 of their last 8 games (per Haslam Metrics). The Tigers really thrive on making 3’s and getting to the FT line with very little coming inside the arc (325th nationally in percentage of points from 2 point land). The Arkansas defense matches up nicely in that regard as they keep opponents off the FT line and defend the arc very well (37th nationally). This one has upset written all over it. We’ll take the points with Arkansas.

#689 ASA PLAY ON Portland State -2.5 over Weber State, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Weber State has been playing terrible basketball since losing 2 key senior starters in the last month. They lost their 2nd and 3rd leading scorer and they have won only 2 of their last 11 games and after losing their 2 key seniors, the Wildcats are playing more underclassmen than any other team in the Big Sky. It’s not as if they’ve had a home court advantage this season with just a 1-6 SU record at home in conference play and 1-9 overall at home vs D1 opponents. Their one win came by 4 points vs Northern Arizona who is 6-9 in conference play. The Wildcats have the worst defense in the Big Sky allowing 1.13 PPP and today they are facing a Portland State team that has the best defense in the conference allowing 0.99 PPP in Big Sky games. PSU ranks #1 defensively in efficiency, eFG% allowed, 3 point FG% allowed, and defensive turnover rate. The Vikings are coming off a road loss @ Idaho State on Thursday but still sit in 3rd place in the conference despite playing the 2nd most difficult strength of schedule in the league. They have been solid on the road with 5 wins which is more wins than Weber has at home. These 2 met already this season and PSU rolled to an easy 74-56 win dominating the glass (+13 boards) while holding Weber St to just 0.86 PPP and 35% from the field. Not only that, the PSU defense did that when Weber was a full strength prior to their 2 key injuries. The Vikings averaged 1.14 PPP on 49% shooting and that success should continue on offense. They rank 31st nationally hitting 48% of their shots and facing a Weber State defense outside the top 300 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. This line is light as it factors in the Wildcats playing at home where they haven’t been winning. We’ll take the much better team laying this small number.

#647/648 ASA PLAY ON Under 137.5 Points – Stony Brook vs North Carolina A&T, Saturday at 2 PM ET - We were on the NC A&T Under on Thursday night vs Campbell and cashed easily with a final score of 53-50 in favor of A&T. As we mentioned on Thursday, NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 56th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 5 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 5 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62, 66, and 64. Not one of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. Stony Brook’s offense isn’t much better ranking 266th in efficiency, 336th in FG%, and 342nd in scoring at just 66 PPG. On top of that, the Seawolves are very slow paced (314th in adjusted tempo) so the possessions in this game will be very limited. When these 2 met in January it was a high scoring game with Stony Brook winning 89-74. That was vs a completely different A&T team that was playing fast paced at the time and was very poor defensively. The Aggies have turned the corner on the defensive end holding 5 straight opponents to under their season PPP average and none of those opponents topped 1.06 PPP. Both teams averaged well above their season offensive efficiency average in that game but we expect them to come back to their averages and if that happens, this stays way Under. The oddsmakers still haven’t caught up to A&T’s drastic change and we’ll take advantage with another Under on Saturday.

#885 ASA PLAY ON Michigan State +3.5 over Michigan, Friday at 8 PM ET - Huge game in Michigan on Friday as the Wolverines sit in first place in the Big 10, a half game ahead of Sparty. The Wolverines have been extremely fortunate with 9 of their 12 Big 10 wins coming by 4 points or less. Their last 7 wins have come by margins of 4, 4, 3, 4, 3, 2, and 3 points with 4 of those 7 wins coming vs teams ranked in the bottom half of the conference. We think their tight game luck runs out tonight. Despite being just behind the Wolverines in 2nd place, MSU is the better team. If we look at Big 10 games, the Spartans are more efficient offensively (3rd in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan), more efficient defensively (1st in the Big 10 vs 7th for Michigan) and they rank #1 in offensive rebounding, FT% (80%), percentage of points from the FT line, eFG% defense, and 3 point FG% defense. Michigan State has been a dog just 5 times this season and they are 3-1-1 ATS in that role winning those 3 games outright. They have a very solid 16-9-1 ATS record on the season. Michigan, on the other hand, has gone 7 straight games without covering as a favorite and they are 2-9 ATS as a favorite in conference play. The one thing MSU does not do well is shoot the 3 but they shouldn’t be at a huge disadvantage in this one as Michigan ranks only 10th in the Big 10 in 3 point FG% and they are facing MSU’s defense who ranks #1 defending the arc. This one should be tight so we’ll grab the points.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Elon +2 over Towson, Thursday at 7 PM ET - Elon is 7-7 in the CAA yet opened up as favored over first place Towson who is 13-1? That line is telling you who you should side with here. Elon’s most recent home game was an embarrassing loss to NC A&T which gave the last place Aggies their only conference win of the season thus far. The Phoenix bounced back nicely after that terrible loss topping the highest rated team in the CAA (UNC Wilmington) 81-70 on the road on Saturday. Now they get a chance to redeem that home loss vs the first place team in the conference. It’s a nice match up for Elon as their defense has been lights out ranking 16th nationally in FG% allowed (39%) and 45th in the country allowing just 31% from beyond the arc. They are facing a Towson offense that shoots just 41% on the season (340th in the country) while scoring only 68 PPG (307th). The Tigers have 1 loss in conference play but they’ve been quite fortunate winning a number of very tight games. In fact, their record in CAA games decided by 7 points or less or in OT is a perfect 9-0 and overall for the season in that role (all games) they are 13-3 in that situation. This team has won 12 straight, many were decided in the final few minutes, and they are due for a loss. This is not a great match up for Towson and we think they go down here. The Phoenix have the 2nd best spread mark in the CAA at 15-9 ATS and we like them to get it done at home tonight.

#775/776 ASA PLAY ON Under 138 Points – Campbell vs North Carolina A&T, Thursday at 7 PM ET - NC A&T has lost a number of key players this season for various reasons and as of now they are down to a rotation of only 6 players. They’ve only played 6 players in each of their last 4 games and because of that they’ve gone from an up tempo team to a slow paced team as that’s the only way they can compete with their roster shortage. For the season A&T ranks 48th nationally in adjusted tempo yet over their last 4 games their possession numbers have dropped off a cliff. Over their last 4 games their possessions were 66, 63, 62 (vs Campbell tonight’s opponent), and 66 and not of those games reached 130 total points. That’s from a team that averages just over 72 possessions per game on the season so you can see the change in philosophy. They are not only shortening games but this team is just outright poor offensively ranking outside the top 320 nationally in offensive efficiency, eFG%, and 3 point FG%. They are facing a Campbell defense that ranks #1 in the CAA in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed so we don’t expect much success offensively for the Aggies. When these 2 met less than 2 weeks ago they totaled 128 points (66-62 Campbell win) on just 62 possessions. They combined to shoot almost 48% and both hit well above their season average FG% in that game yet still didn’t reach 130 total points. We look for a similar outcome tonight which leads to another Under.

#724 ASA PLAY ON Washington State +12.5 over Gonzaga, Thursday at 9 PM ET - We’re absolutely catching value on Washington State here as we get them at the bottom of their market so to speak. They’ve lost 6 of their last 7 games which has driven this line quite a bit higher than in should be in our opinion. 5 of those 6 losses during that stretch for the Cougars came on the road and their 1 home loss was by 5 vs a very good St Mary’s team that beat Gonzaga already this year. To give you an idea of the line value, in that loss vs St Mary’s the Cougars were +6 at and now plus more than double that vs a Gonzaga team that lost by 4 vs the Gaels. Along with that, Gonzaga has been overvalued by the oddsmakers all year with a 10-17 ATS record. Wazzu is 9-2 at home (losses by 1 and 5 points) this season and their home splits are much better than their road numbers. They already rank 12th nationally hitting almost 49% of their shots overall, but at home that number jumps to 52% and they average 88 PPG in Beasley Coliseum, which is by the way sold out for this game. We feel it’s going to be difficult for the Zags to pull away from this really solid offensive team. 5 of Gonzaga’s 7 losses have come away from home (road or neutral) and in the first meeting with Washington State this year, the Zags were favored by 17 at home and won by 13. Now they are laying close to the same number on the road. In that first meeting Wazzu played without starter Watts (13 PPG) and he is now back and healthy. In that win, Gonzaga shot 56%, made 48% of their 3’s and made 7 more FT’s. Also, keep in mind that the Zags have a look ahead game on Saturday with St Mary’s who beat them a few weeks ago. We think Washington State brings everything they have in this game and it stays closer than most think. Take the points.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Dakota State -6.5 over North Dakota State, Wednesday at 8 PM ET - South Dakota State has been unbeatable at home this year with a 12-0 SU record (7-2 ATS) and all but one of those wins has come by double digits.  They just faced the 2 teams currently battling them for 1st place in the Summit League, Omaha and St Thomas, and beat those 2 teams by 13 and 16 points respectively.  The Jackrabbits are shooting 53% overall at home, 39% from deep, and winning by an average score of 90-69.  While SDSU just easily took care of Omaha and St Thomas, North Dakota State is 0-5 SU vs those 3 teams (including SDSU) who sit in the top 3 spots in the conference.  The Jackrabbits already beat North Dakota State by 10 on the road this season limiting the Bison to just 7 of 30 (23%) from beyond the arc.  Not a huge surprise as South Dakota State is the #1 team in the Summit defending the arc.  NDSU is a team that relies more than any other team in the country on scoring from beyond the arc and if they aren’t hitting from deep they are in trouble.  While the Bison may struggle offensively here, don’t expect SDSU to have any problems on that end of the court.  NDSU ranks outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency and they are allowing 78 PPG away from home.  The Bison simply aren’t playing well right now as they faced the 2 worst teams in the Summit at home last Thursday and Saturday (Denver & Oral Roberts – both ranked outside the top 300) and went to OT with both (ultimately winning 2 tight games).  We like South Dakota State to get another double digit home win tonight.

#615 ASA PLAY ON Purdue +3.5 over Michigan State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - We’re catching Purdue off a bad home outing vs Wisconsin and Michigan State off an upset win @ Illinois. We really like this situation for the Boilers. Their 10 point home loss on Saturday vs a red hot Wisconsin team was a game where the Badgers simply couldn’t miss hitting 62% of their shots overall and 40% of their triples. The Boilers, who thrive on creating turnovers (#1 in the Big 10) only forced 3 turnovers by the Badgers. Deadly shooting and almost no giveaways led the Badgers to that win on the road. Purdue’s other 2 Big 10 losses went to the wire losing by 3 vs OSU and by 2 vs Michigan. The Spartans shouldn’t be able to exploit the Boilers from deep as they are simply not a good 3 point shooting team as they rank 353rd nationally making only 29% of their triples this season (350th in made 3’s per game). They also turn the ball over a lot (15th in the Big 10 with a 17% turnover percentage) so that also plays directly into the Boilers defensive strength of creating giveaways. PU should have a big advantage from deep ranking 26th nationally hitting 38% of their 3 balls. While they are off an upset win @ Illinois, the Spartans have cooled off drastically after their 9-0 start to the conference season losing 3 of their last 5 games including a setback at home vs Indiana, the Hoosiers only win in their last 7 games. We like looking for really solid teams off bad performances and that’s what we’re getting here with Purdue. Not only that, they are underdogs so we have some cushion here. We like Purdue to keep this very close and have a shot on the road win (5-2 SU on the road in the Big 10 this season).

#306545 ASA PLAY ON Lipscomb -3.5 over Eastern Kentucky, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Lipscomb sits in 1st place in the Atlantic Sun and they are easily the best team in the league ranking 86th nationally per KenPom.  No other team in that conference ranks above 114th.  We’re getting the best team in the league with some extra motivation as they lost at home vs EKU just a few weeks ago.  In that game the Bisons shot only 39% which is well below their season average of 48% in league play which ranks them #1 in the conference.  EKU ranks 9th defensively in the ASun in FG% allowed at 46% so it’s not as if they are a lock down defensive team.  It was just one of those games for the Lipscomb offense.  Speaking of #1, here are the stats that Lipscomb leads the Asun in…FG%, scoring margin (+12.4 PPG), defensive FG%, defensive 3 point FG%, defensive scoring (allowing 67 PPG), and defensive rebounding.  8 of their 11 conference wins have come by double digits and none by less than 5 points.  On the road this team has only lost once in league play vs Northern Alabama who is tied with Lipscomb for 1st place in the conference.  The Bison were favored by 9.5 in their loss vs EKU and now we’re getting them at a low number because they are on the road.  Great value as this team is outstanding on the road and EKU doesn’t  have a great home court advantage (already 3 home losses this season).  All 3 of those losses came vs teams ranked 112th or lower, well below this Lipscomb team.  EKU is 10-4 in the conference but they rank middle of the pack in the league (5th per KenPom) and they have a negative FG% differential and 3 point FG% differential in conference games.  Lipscomb is the much better team and extra motivated for this one.  We’ll lay it.

#306533/306534 ASA PLAY ON Under 143.5 Points – Texas Southern vs Southern, Monday at 9 PM ET - The 2 top defensive efficiency teams in the SWAC face off tonight in Baton Rouge. They are also #1 and #2 in the conference in eFG% allowed while giving up just 65 PPG (Southern) and 66 PPG (Texas Southern). In league play Texas Southern’s defense allows opponents to shoot just 38% (best in the SWAC) while Southern is allowing just 40% from the field (2nd best). We could also see a number of wasted possessions in this game as both teams rank in the top 100 nationally at creating turnovers while both offenses rank outside the top 240 in turnover rate. These 2 met back in January and totaled just 125 total points with Southern winning 68-57. That’s been a common theme in this rivalry with the total points scored in their last 7 meetings looking like this (starting with most recent)…125, 124, 119, 147, 126 (in regulation), 128, and 113. These teams do like to play up tempo but that didn’t matter in the first meeting as the defenses are absolutely the strength of both teams with the offenses ranking outside the top 300 in both efficiency and eFG%. If we look at these teams vs the top 5 defensive teams in the SWAC (defensive efficiency), they’ve faced those teams a total of 8 times combined and only one of those games has topped 143 total points. Six of those eight games didn’t even reach 130 total points. The total points scored in those 8 games vs the top 5 defensive teams in the conference was 131. We don’t see this match up reaching 140 total points so we’ll grab the Under.

#857 ASA PLAY ON Utah State +6.5 over New Mexico, Sunday at 4 PM ET - These 2 played just over 2 weeks ago and USU was favored by 4 at home in that game. They lost big, which is a rarity, and now we’re getting value here with the Utes getting a full +6 at the opener. USU’s loss at home vs the Lobos was by far their worst performance of the season. They lost 82-63, shot just 38% and from beyond the arc the Utes were 5 of 31 (16%) and made only 10 of 23 FT’s. That’s from a team that leads the Mountain West in conference games hitting over 37% of their triples. Just one of the games where nothing was going in which happens even to the best teams from time to time. We don’t expect a repeat performance from Utah State who is one of the best shooting teams in the nation (5th nationally in FG%) and they lead the MWC in offensive efficiency, eFG%, 2 point FG%, and 3 point FG%. All those factors along with the fact they rarely turn the ball over (#1 in the MWC in offensive turnover rate) is why this team is so good on the road. They have a near perfect 7-1 record away from home with their only loss coming by 3 points. They have already topped some really good teams on the road including San Diego State, St Mary’s, and Nevada. The Utes shoot better on the road than they do at home (51% on the road) and they are allowing just 68 PPG away from home. The Lobos sit in 1st place in the MWC and USU is one game behind them so this is a big one. New Mexico is very good but this is too many points for a team that is also very good and has some extra incentive after getting embarrassed a few weeks ago. USU is 22-3 on the year with a 2 point loss, a 3 point loss, and then their poor performance vs the Lobos. The Utes have actually won 9 of the last 16 @ New Mexico and we think this one goes to the wire. Take the points.

#833/834 ASA PLAY ON Under 129.5 Points – Rider vs St Peters, Sunday at 2 PM ET - This game should be a slow paced, low possession affair. Both teams rank outside the top 310 in adjusted tempo and in their first meeting they only had 60 possessions. The total set on that game was 124.5 and the final score was 67-64 so we’re now getting some solid value on the Under which is set 5 points higher (at the open) compared to the first meeting. In that game they had combined for just 123 points with 25 seconds remaining in the game and they went on to score 8 points from that point on. Both teams played well above their average offensive efficiency with Rider putting up 1.12 PPP (they average 1.01 PPP on the season) while St Peters averaged 1.07 PPP in that game (they average 0.96 PPP on the season). These are 2 poor offenses going at it on Sunday. St Peters is dead last in the MAAC in efficiency, scoring, FG%, and 3 point FG%. Rider ranks 348th nationally in scoring, 317th in FG%, and 345th in 3 point FG%. Neither team gets to the FT line very often both ranking outside the top 200 in FT made per game. In their 13 MAAC games, St Peters has gotten to 70 points just one time and they’ve been held to 65 or less 9 times. Rider has been a little better scoring wise but they’ve been held below 70 points in 10 of their 14 conference games. If these teams don’t play well above their offensive efficiency as they did in the first meeting, we just don’t see this game getting into the 130’s. Under is the call.

#769/770 ASA PLAY ON Over 156.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs St Thomas, Saturday at 8 PM ET - This is a very similar spot to Thursday night when Omaha traveled to South Dakota State and we were on the Over in that game and it cashed easily. In this one we have 2 teams that like to play up tempo and 2 of the best offenses in the Summit. These 2 rank #1 and #2 in the conference in offensive efficiency and they both average 84 PPG in conference play. They each shoot over 41% from beyond the arc (top 2 in the conference) and when they get to the FT line they convert at 75% and 76%. St Thomas is one of the best shooting teams in the nation ranking 3rd in the country in FG% and 7th in 3 point FG%. Those numbers get better at home where they average 90 PPG. Nebraska Omaha put up 85 on Thursday vs the #1 defensive efficiency team in the conference, South Dakota State, and they have scored at least 80 points in 10 of their 12 Summit League games. These offenses should have big time success as the defenses are nothing to write home about. Both allow 77+ points in conference play and for the season these defenses each rank outside the top 260 in efficiency, eFG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. In their first meeting less than a month ago, they combined to score 187 points in an up tempo game with 72 possessions. The Mavericks hit their conference average in PPP (efficiency) in that game while St Thomas played well below their PPP average. Both offenses are by far the best units on the court here and we expect each to get to 80 points minimum. Over.

#768 ASA PLAY ON Western Kentucky -2 over Middle Tennessee State, Saturday at 8 PM ET - WKY had a needed week off since playing last Saturday as they look to get some players back in the lineup. Last Saturday they battled valiantly with just 8 players available at 1st place Jacksonville State before losing 85-83. The Hilltoppers blew a 19 point lead in that game simply running out of gas in the 2nd half due to the short line up. It looks like starter Kalambay (9 PPG) will return after missing last week with an illness and key bench player Edelen could be back as well. WKY is 11-2 at home this season with their only conference home loss coming vs Jax State who as we mentioned sits in 1st place. MTSU will be playing their 3rd straight road game and they are 3-3 away from home in CUSA play with their wins coming by 1, 2, and 4 points. They are coming off a road upset win @ Kennesaw State where they shot 50% from the field and still only won by a single point. Despite their 5-6 league record, Western Kentucky is still rated as the 3rd best team in CUSA behind only Jacksonville State and Liberty who are in 1st and 2nd place. The Toppers have played the strongest strength of schedule in the league and have 3 wins over teams ranked in the top 5 in CUSA including a win @ Liberty who is ranked #1 (per KenPom). They’ve only played 4 home games thus far in their 11 game conference slate. These teams met a month ago @ MTSU and the Blue Raiders won 71-57 with WKY shooting only 33% from the field and 20% from deep. It was by far their worst offensive output of the entire season and we like them to bounce back tonight at home where they are averaging 84 PPG. If this one is tight as the line suggests, FT’s could be a key and WKY hits 76% from the stripe in CUSA play while MTSU makes only 65%. We’ll lay this small number.

#772 ASA PLAY ON Tarleton State +5.5 over Seattle, Saturday at 8 PM ET - Huge quick revenger for Tarleton who just played @ Seattle 10 days ago and lost 91-54 as a 9 point dog. Seattle shot lights out in that game hitting 57% of their shots overall (they average 42%) and 60% of their triples hitting 15 of 25. Seattle scored a ridiculous 1.54 PPP which is WAY above their season WAC average of 1.04 PPP. The Texans strength is their defense so you can bet they’ll put some extra emphasis on that end of the court and won’t let that happen again. Tarleton hasn’t been great on the road but at home they’ve been very feisty winning 8 of 10 overall (average margin of +11 PPG) with just 1 home loss in WAC play on Thursday by just 4 points vs Grand Canyon, the highest rated team in the conference. Seattle, on the other hand, has been a poor road team. They have yet to win on the road in WAC play and just lost by 16 @ Abilene Christian on Thursday night now 48 hours later they are on the road again. Seattle is shooting just 39% away from home and losing by an average margin of -7 PPG so don’t expect them to make everything in sight as they did at home 10 days ago vs this TSU team. As a road favorite the Redhawks are now 0-3 ATS this season and 2-9 ATS their last 11 in that role. Tarleton, on the other hand, is 3-0 ATS as a home dog this season winning 2 of those games outright. TSU won both meetings last year before getting clobbered a few days ago and you can bet they’ll be more than ready for this rematch. We like Tarleton to win this game outright so we’ll take the points.

#870 ASA PLAY ON Loyola Chicago -2.5 over St Louis, Friday at 7 PM ET - Loyola is 12-1 at home this season where they average 1.078 PPP compared to 0.972 on the road. Going back to last season they’ve won 19 of their last 20 home games. They’ve been outstanding defensively at home as well allowing 0.934 PPP on 40% shooting giving up only 64 PPG. Their only home loss came back in early January vs VCU who is by far the highest rated team in the A10 (per KenPom) currently sitting with a 20-5 record. The Ramblers have played 2 other top 5 A10 teams here at home and beat them both (St Joes and St Bonnies). St Louis began the conference season winning 5 of their first 6 games but they’ve been heading in the wrong direction for a few weeks now losing 4 of their last 6. They have not been a good team away from home with a 3-6 record both SU and ATS and 2 of their 3 wins came vs Fordham and Richmond, 2 of the 3 lowest rated teams in the conference. They average less than 1.00 PPP on the road (0.985) while allowing nearly 1.10 PPP. Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Billikens coughing it up over 20% of the time in A10 play (dead last) and they’ve turned it over more than 20% in 4 of their last 5 games. Tonight they face a Loyola defense that ranks in the top 100 nationally creating turnovers which should lead to some extra possessions for the Ramblers. We think STL continues their road struggles and Loyola gets the win and cover.

#785/786 ASA PLAY ON Over 151.5 Points – Nebraska Omaha vs South Dakota State, Thursday at 8 PM ET - Two of the best offenses in the Summit League are facing off here in what should be a high scoring game. Omaha and SDSU both average 84 PPG in league play. UNO has scored at least 77 points in all 11 of their conference games and South Dakota State has reached at least 80 points in 6 of their 10 conference games. The Jackrabbits have actually topped 100 points twice in Summit League play and they’ve been an offensive juggernaut at home averaging 90 PPG. In their home games in league play, SDSU has not been held under 84 points and they’ve scored at least 90 in 4 of their 5 at home. They should have plenty of offensive success here vs an Omaha defense that ranks 318th in eFG% allowed. SDSU’s defensive numbers are decent, but they’ve allowed at least 70 points in 8 of their 10 Summit League games. Both teams shoot the 3 very well (#1 and #4 in conference play) and both like to play up tempo. In their first meeting Omaha picked up the 87-80 win for an easy Over. In that win, the Mavericks hit their conference season average in PPP (efficiency) and South Dakota State actually played below their offensive efficiency average and these 2 still nearly got to 170 total points. Four of the last five meetings between these 2 rivals have reached at least 152 points with 3 of those games topping 160. This one should be a track meet and we’ll take the Over.

#702 ASA PLAY ON South Carolina +5.5 over Ole Miss, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Ole Miss is in a rough spot here having just come from behind late to win @ LSU and they have a revenge match with arch rival Mississippi State on Saturday. The Rebels had to come from 11 down with 3:00 minutes remaining in the game as a 6 point chalk @ LSU to win by 2 points on a tip in at the buzzer. The final score of 72-70 was the only time that Mississippi led in the second half and that was vs an LSU team that is ranked lower than South Carolina per KenPom. Now the Rebs have to face a South Carolina team that is 0-10 SU in SEC play so don’t be surprised if they aren’t fully focused on this game. They better be because the Gamecocks, despite their record, have been very competitive at home vs the top teams in the SEC. They’ve faced the toughest home schedule in SEC play having already faced the 4 teams in 1st or 2nd place in the conference along with Mississippi State who is ranked 31st nationally per KenPom. The only non-competitive game in that stretch was vs Bama way back on January 8th Since then they lost to Auburn by 3, Texas A&M by 4, Florida by 1, and in OT vs Mississippi State. Just prior to the SEC conference slate the Gamecocks beat Clemson here at home and that’s a Tiger team that just beat Duke and UNC and sits in 2nd place in the ACC. This team is more than capable of pulling off this upset and it’s a perfect situational spot for them to do so. We’ll take the points.