Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-21 | TCU v. Iowa State -14.5 | Top | 14-48 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
#140 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Iowa State -14.5 over TCU, Friday 4:30 PM ET - Vegas is begging us to bet on TCU here and we won’t bite. The Horned Frogs are attracting a lot of public action, yet the line is not fluctuating down. TCU has had a disappointing season which cost longtime head coach Gary Patterson his job and has Jerry Kill as the interim coach. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 3-point win over 2-9 Kansas who has an average +/- on the season of minus -22.8PPG. TCU has been blown out on the road this season by 46 at Oklahoma State, by 19 at Kansas State and 21 at Oklahoma who are all on par with this Iowa State team. The Cyclones are a disappointing 6-5 this season, but they are much better than their record indicates. Even with 5 losses, ISU has a +10.3 average MOV which is incredible. Iowa State has a bad taste in their mouths after two straight 1-score losses on the road and will look for atonement at home. ISU is 4-1 SU at home this season with a +/- of +14.8PPG. Iowa State has a top 50-offense in several key statistical categories and should have success moving the ball against a TCU defense that ranks 113th in yards allowed per game at 454. On the other side of the football the Horned Frogs will have a tough time moving it against the top 10 defense of the Cyclones. This one has all the makings of a blowout. |
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11-26-21 | Boise State -2.5 v. San Diego State | 16-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 46 m | Show | |
#119 ASA PLAY ON 8* Boise State -2.5 over San Diego State, Friday at 12 PM ET - Fishy line here with Boise (7-4) favored @ San Diego State (10-1) with the Aztecs playing for the MWC West title. We agree that Boise should be favored but to most this looks like any easy play on SDSU. Boise started the season a little slow but they’ve kicked it in gear and are playing as well as anyone in the conference. They’ve won 5 of last 6 with only loss vs Air Force. The Broncos have also shown they can get it done on the road with wins @ BYU, @ Utah State, @ Fresno State (blowout), and @ Colorado St. After struggling to run the ball early in the year they’ve really started to become balanced offensively running for 178, 187, 160, and 239 last 4 games. SDSU is very good defensively but their offense is not. They rank 114th overall and 125th in passing. When they’ve played step up games vs the other top teams in the MWC West the Aztecs lost by 10 at home vs Fresno and beat Nevada at home on a last second FG. In their last 4 games with San Diego State making their title push they beat Hawaii by 7 but were outgained in that game, lost by 10 at home vs Fresno, beat Nevada at the buzzer at home, and struggled with UNLV winning by 8 last week but getting outgained by 100+ yards. Boise gets the win and cover in this one. |
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11-25-21 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -2 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
#112 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Mississippi State -2 over Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - We’ve kept a close eye on Ole Miss for a number of weeks now. We used their game vs Vandy Under last week and cashed easily. The Rebels are running out of gas. They are now playing their 9th consecutive week and now on a short week on the road. This team is banged up at a number of positions including QB where Matt Corral has not been able to practice which has limited Lane Kiffin’s game planning to his own admission. They struggled a bit last week beating Vandy by 14 (Ole Miss was favored by 35) and that was a Commodore team that had lost their first 6 SEC games by an average of 26 points including a 45-6 loss to Mississippi State. Because this team is fatigued, their scoring has dropped drastically especially in the 2nd half where they have scored a grand total of 44 points over their last 6 games (7.3 PPG in 2nd half during that run). Speaking of the Bulldogs, they are peaking right now which can’t be said about the Rebels. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with their only setback during that run coming @ Alabama. Throw out that game and MSU has outgained their last 6 opponents by an average of 203 YPG. While Ole Miss QB Corral gets most of the press, how about the run by MSU QB Rogers? He is completing 80% of his passes with 20 TD’s over the Bulldogs last 5 games. They have outgained every SEC opponent they’ve faced with the exception of Bama. MSU’s offense is rolling right now as we discussed and their defense gives up a full 100 yards less per game than Mississippi. This is a rivalry revenger as MSU lost @ Ole Miss last season 31-24. We like MSU to win this one and we’ll lay the small number. |
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11-20-21 | Colorado State v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 45-50 | Win | 100 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
#426 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Hawaii +2.5 over Colorado State, Saturday at 11PM ET - We have you covered for the late-night tilt on the Big Island in Hawaii when the Rams visit the Rainbow Warriors. This is a tough scheduling situation for Colorado State as they travel to Hawaii after suffering their fourth straight loss last week to Air Force. After prepping for the Triple Option attack, they now must adjust to playing the more traditional attack of Hawaii. CSU cannot make a Bowl game at this point, and they face one of the best teams in the Mountain West next week in Nevada. Hawaii on the other hand still has a shot at notching 6 wins on the season with a win here and the at Wyoming to become Bowl eligible. The Warriors are a much different team at home than they are on the road. Hawaii has been competitive at home against some of the league’s best teams losing by 7-points to San Diego State, 4 to San Jose State and beating Fresno State. Hawaii has some horrible defensive numbers overall, but at home they allow 5.2-Yards Per Play and 25.4PPG which are better than the national average. The Rams offense has struggled this season, especially on the road where they average just 4.9YPPL and 3.6-Yards Per Rush. In comparison, Hawaii averages 5.8YPPL at home and 5.0YPR. Colorado State should not be favored here and with nothing left to play for don’t be surprised if they view this trip to the islands as a vacation of sorts. Grab the points. |
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11-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Ole Miss UNDER 65 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
#391/392 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 65 Points – Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET - The Rebels have really upped their defensive performance as of late holding 3 of their last 4 opponents to 19 points or less. Those 3 opponents were Texas A&M, Liberty, and LSU whose offenses are all far superior to Vandy. The Commodores rank 123rd in total offense and 128th in scoring offense averaging only 15 PPG. Take out their games vs the 2 defenses they’ve faced ranked lower than 100th (Mizzou & UConn) and Vanderbilt is averaging only 11.5 PPG. They will struggle offensively vs this Ole Miss defense that is playing much better than their season long stats indicate. Offensively the Rebels have slowed WAY down compared to early in the season. They have not topped 31 points since October 9th which has resulted in 5 straight Unders. Mississippi has a huge game on deck Thursday (Thanksgiving) with rival Mississippi State so they don’t want to do anything to jeopardize their performance in that game. Nothing special on offense from them here and if they get a comfortable lead as the point spread suggests they will we expect them to sit key players, including banged up QB Corral, in the 2nd half at some point. Of Vandy’s last 36 road games, 26 have gone Under the total and we expect another one here. |
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11-20-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Liberty UNDER 53.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 50 m | Show | |
#353/354 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER 53.5 Points - UL Lafayette @ Liberty, Saturday at 4 PM ET - The defenses for both teams are stingy and tough to score on. Liberty is 13th in the nation in scoring defense allowing just 18.7PPG. UL Lafayette is right behind them allowing 19.2PPG which ranks 17th. On average it takes teams 18.3 yards to score a point on ULL which is 13th best in the nation. Liberty is 28th in Yards Per Point defense at 16.1. The Flames defense is allowing 4.6-Yards Per Play on the season which ranks them 13th, Lafayette allows 5.0YPPL which is 32nd. You get the picture, this game is all about the defenses. Liberty is 101st in the country in pace of play, Lafayette is 66th. The Ragin Cajuns are on a 6-1 Under run, Liberty has stayed Under 6-3-1 on the season. |
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11-20-21 | Minnesota -7 v. Indiana | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
#357 ASA PLAY ON 8* Minnesota -7 over Indiana, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Indiana is in a free fall losing 6 straight games and they really have nothing left to play for. You could tell that last week when they hosted Rutgers and lost 38-3! That’s the same Rutgers team that lost 52-3 at home vs Wisconsin a week earlier. The Rutgers offense had not topped 20 points in a game since mid September and nearly put up 40 on IU. The Hoosiers are really banged up a QB with starter Penix still out, his back up Tuttle was re-injured last week and didn’t return leaving them with their 3rd and 4th team signal callers. Their offense has been terrible ranking 121st nationally and if you subtract their one decent offensive performance vs a bad Maryland defense, the Hoosiers have scored 0, 3, 6, 7, 7, and 15 points in Big 10 play. Minnesota’s defense is very good (6th nationally) and should shut this team down. The Gophs completely out played Iowa on the road last week outgaining them 409 to 277 and held the Hawks to just 70 yards on the ground (Minny had 190 rushing). A few bad breaks cost them that game. They already have blowout road wins @ Colorado & @ Northwestern along with a win @ Purdue. We like Minnesota to bounce back and win this one by more than a TD. |
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11-20-21 | Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 66 | 38-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
#325/326 ASA PLAY ON 8* OVER 66 Points - Virginia @ Pittsburgh, Saturday at 3:30PM ET - The first aspect that stands out here is how fast both these teams play. Virginia ranks 36th in pace of play and has ranked as high as 28th. Pittsburgh is 17th in POP averaging 2.52 plays per minute. We also have two of the best offenses in college football squaring off as UVA ranks 5th in total yards per game (518YPG), while Pitt is 2nd at 533YPG. They are also both top 5 in passing yards per game and have big play capability with their passing attacks averaging 8.1-Yards Per Pass Attempt (Virginia 37th) and 8.8YPPA (Pittsburgh 19th). Last week the Cavs produced just 3-points against Notre Dame, but they were missing one of the best QB’s in college as Brennan Armstrong was out. Anderson is expected back for this game. Pittsburgh may have the best QB in the country with Kenny Pickett who is completing 67% of his passes for over 3,500 yards and 32 TD’s to 4 INT’s. Pitt just faced North Carolina and Vegas set a Total of 72 points. UNC and Virginia are very comparable offensively, but the Tar Heels are much better defensively. The Cavaliers at 98th in scoring defense, giving up 31PPG on the season and rank 120th in yards allowed. Pittsburgh has a weakness on defense and it’s against the pass as they allow 242PYPG which ranks 87th. If Armstrong is under center for Virginia, this sets up as a QB shootout. Bet Over. |
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11-20-21 | Illinois +13 v. Iowa | 23-33 | Win | 100 | 31 h 56 m | Show | |
#367 ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois +13 over Iowa, Saturday at 2:00 PM ET - We like this spot for the Illini. They are coming off a bye and have been very competitive on the road beating Penn State & Minnesota, while losing by 4 @ Purdue. Iowa is coming off a big home win last week vs Minnesota but they were outplayed in that game getting outgained by 132 yards. The Hawkeyes switched QB’s with Padilla making his first career start but it wasn’t overly impressive as he led the to just 277 total yards and the Hawkeyes averaged only 2.8 YPC. We see them struggling again this week vs an underrated Illinois defense. The Illini have not allowed more than 24 points in their last 7 games and they are allowing just 16 PPG in Big 10 Play (in regulation). Tough to lay nearly 2 TD’s when your offense is ranked 122nd nationally which Iowa’s is. Illinois HC Bielema won’t be on the sidelines here (Covid) but we expect the Illini to keep this one tight in a low scoring game as they have for most of the Big 10 season. They shouldn’t need to do all that much offensively to stay within this number. Take the points. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State OVER 68 | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
#339/340 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 68 Points – Michigan State vs Ohio State, Saturday at 12:00 PM ET - This is a terrible match up for MSU’s defense. Sparty ranks DEAD LAST in the country in pass defense allowing 351 yards per game through the air and 111th in total defense. They are facing an OSU offense that is rolling right now and ranks #1 nationally in total offense and #6 in pass offense. This Buckeye offense just put up 59 points and 624 yards last week vs Purdue who came into the game as the 20th ranked defense in the nation. It could have been much worse as Ohio State had 52 points with 11 minutes still remaining in the 3rd quarter in that game. And that was vs a top 20 defense and now they face a bottom 20 defense on Saturday. While MSU’s defense stinks, they can score points. They are averaging 31 PPG in Big 10 play which is 2nd in the conference behind OSU who is averaging 48 PPG. Even vs the 2 top defenses they’ve faced this year (Michigan & Purdue) the Spartans scored 37 and 29 points respectively. This total seems high at 68 but let’s compare it to OSU’s total last week when the faced Purdue. That number was 65 and the Boiler defense is FAR superior to and MSU’s offense is ranked 40 spots higher than Purdue’s, yet this total is only 3 points higher. Weather looks great in Columbus with high temps in the upper 40’s with very little wind. Shootout here and we like the Over. |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan OVER 66 | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* OVER 66 Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, 8:30PM ET - If you enjoy MACaction and a lot of scoring you will love this contest tonight. Both teams have plenty to play for with identical 6-4 SU records so energy will be high for this “Michigan” rivalry. Let’s start with the Eastern defense which has been atrocious in the past few weeks. Last week, EMU allowed 8.1-yards per play to Ohio U who averages 6.1YPPL on the season and gave up 34-points to a Bobcats averaging 24PPG on the year. The Eagles allowed 8.6YPPL, 672 total yards to Toledo the week before and 49 points. While we are talking about defenses, Western Michigan has given up 31 or more points in 5 straight games, in 3 of those they allowed 40 plus. WMU has racked up some gaudy offensive numbers in recent weeks with 533, 445, 398 and 648 total yards of offense in their last four games. The Broncos will have success on the ground against an EMU defense that gives up 195-rushing yards per game and ranks 107th in that department. Overall the Eagles give up over 430YPG which is 103rd in the nation. WMU is 29th in yards per game at 443.8 with 195 of those yards coming via the 34th ranked rushing attack. Ohio is the highest scoring team in the MAC and 22nd highest scoring team in the nation at 33.9PPG. Last season when these two teams met they combined for over 1,000 total yards of offense and 95-total points. The bet here is OVER. |
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11-13-21 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 54.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
#187/188 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 54.5 Points – South Carolina vs Missouri, Saturday at 4 PM ET - Mizzou has a very good offense and terrible defense. They have allowed at least 35 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only team that did not reach 35 was Vanderbilt and Mizzou allowed a bad Commodore offense to 28 in that game. FCS team Southeast Missouri State put up 28 points on this defense which ranks 122nd and total defense and 116th in YPP allowed. Offensively, this team can score points. Their only 2 poor offensive performances this year were vs Georgia & Texas A&M who rank 2nd and 7th nationally in YPP allowed. If we subtract those 2 games, Mizzou is averaging 38 PPG on the season. Starting QB Bazelak missed last weekend’s game @ UGA but has been practicing this week so we expect him to go. The South Carolina offensive numbers for the season aren’t great. However, the Gamecocks seem to be peaking late in the year on that side of the ball right now putting up 400+ yards in 2 of their last 3 games including last Saturday beating Florida 40-17. On top of that, Missouri will be the worst defense they’ve faced this season. South Carolina has a middle of the pack type defense this year ranking 53rd nationally. However, in SEC play they have allowed 30 PPG with 3 teams getting to at least 40 points. The weather looks perfect for scoring in Columbia, MO on Saturday with light winds and no precipitation in the forecast. We like the OVER in this one. |
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11-13-21 | Minnesota +4.5 v. Iowa | Top | 22-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
#127 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota +4.5 over Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET - Iowa started the season on fire and moved all the way up to #2 in the polls which we knew at the time was nowhere near an accurate perception of this team. They won their first 6 games of the season but that slate was quite easy. They played only 2 teams through the first 6 that currently have a winning record. Those games were tight wins vs Iowa State, who outgained Iowa by 166 yards, and Penn State, who had their QB Clifford leave with an injury with PSU up by 14 points. In those first 6 games, the Hawkeyes were plus a ridiculous 15 turnovers which masked their offensive problems and simply wasn’t sustainable. In their most recent 3 games the Hawkeyes have come back to the level we thought they would be playing at losing by 17 vs Purdue, by 20 vs Wisconsin, and beating a bad NW team by just 5 points. Iowa was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined 300 yards. That includes last week’s tight win @ NW vs a Wildcat team that had been outgained by a combined 720 yards in their 5 Big 10 games prior to facing Iowa. The Hawkeye offense ranks 121st in total offense and 124th in YPP offense this season. They have scored just 31 total points in their last 3 games and now face a very good Minnesota defense that ranks 7th nationally in total defense and allows just 4.9 YPP. The Gopher defense has allowed more than 16 points just ONCE in their last 7 games. On top of that, Iowa will be most likely be starting Alex Padilla at QB as Petras is injured. Padilla has never started a game in college and while he played decent in relief last week, they still only scored 17 points vs a NW defense that ranks 92nd nationally. Minnesota is coming off an embarrassing home loss vs Illinois. The Gophs had their chances in that 14-6 loss and outgained the Illini. In that loss, Minnesota was shut out on downs twice inside the Illinois 25 yard line, threw a pick in Illinois territory and missed a FG. Prior to last week Minnesota won 4 straight games and they have outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Gophers faced NW on the road a week prior to Iowa doing the same and won the game 41-14 outgaining the Wildcats by 200 yards – the same team the Hawkeyes struggled with last week. These defenses are both very good but we feel Minnesota has a big edge at QB with veteran Morgan vs a first time starter. They also have a large edge on the ground rushing for an average of 208 YPG compared to Iowa’s 114 YPG on the ground. This is expected to a be a low scoring grinder (total set at 37) and getting points, especially +5.5, will be key. We feel Minnesota has a great shot to win this game and if not we don’t see Iowa with their terrible offense winning by more than a FG. Take the points. |
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11-13-21 | Georgia State +10.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 42-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show | |
#123 ASA PLAY ON 8* Georgia State +10.5 over Coastal Carolina, Saturday at 2 PM ET - The big news here centers around QB Grayson McCall of Coastal Carolina who is out with an injured shoulder. McCall had led the Chanticleers to the 6th best completion percentage in the nation and an offense that was averaging 43.3PPG before his injury. Last week without McCall, Coastal managed just 28-points against Georgia Southern which ranks 99th in the nation in points allowed per game and 113th in yards given up per game. Coastal Carolina’s rush defense is 33rd in the nation allowing 129.9YPG but that unit is slightly overrated considering they’ve faced 5 rush offenses that rank 74th or worse. The Chanticleers will struggle to stop a Georgia State offense that is 12th in the nation in rushing at 222.3YPG. Coastal will lean on their rushing attack here too with a unit that averages 225YPG on the ground, but the Georgia State rush D isn’t as bad as their numbers would indicate. The Panthers have faced five rushing offenses that rank 32nd or better including #1 ranked Army. The Panthers are coming off a close 4-point loss against UL Lafayette and have covered 4 in a row. We predict a one score game here. |
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11-12-21 | Wyoming +14 v. Boise State | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wyoming +14 over Boise State, Friday at 9 PM ET - This line is an overreaction to Boise’s big win last Saturday @ Fresno. Our power ratings have this line around 10 so we’re getting value with Wyoming. In Boise’s 2 other conference home games they were favored by 3 vs Air Force (and lost) and favored by 4 over Nevada (and lost). They are taking on a Wyoming team that is coming in with confidence after playing their best game of the season last week beating Colorado St on the road 31-17 outgaining the Rams by 120 yards. Wyoming’s offense has struggled this year but they made the switch at QB to Levi Williams which gives them more of a running threat and he responded with 116 yards on the ground last week and their highest point total since mid September. And that was vs a CSU defense that ranks 10th nationally. The Cowboys are also an attractive big underdog because their defense is outstanding. The rank 18th nationally allowing just 325 YPG and they have allowed more than 27 points only once all season. Boise’s home field advantage isn’t what it used to be having lost 3 games here already this season and Wyoming has played them as tough as anyone. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by 10 points or less and we expect a closer than expected game here. Take the points. |
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11-11-21 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh -6.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -6.5 over North Carolina, Thursday at 7:30 PM ET - Love this spot for Pitt. UNC is off a back and forth energy draining 58-55 home win over Wake Forest last Saturday. The Heels trailed for much of the game, down by 18 points late in the 3rd quarter, but made a furious rally in the 4th scoring 24 points in a 10 minute span. That was facing a Wake defense that ranks 105th in total defense and the game was at home. They’ll have a much tougher time with this Pitt defense ranked 37th nationally. The North Carolina defense was shredded last week for over 600 yards and they were on the field for a whopping 90 plays so fatigue will be a factor here. The problem is, they face at Pittsburgh offense that is better than the Wake offense they faced last week. The Panthers rank #1 nationally is scoring averaging 45 PPG and #2 in total offense averaging 543 YPG. If the Heels couldn’t slow down the Deacs last week we don’t see them fairing very well in this contest. UNC has lost all 3 of their road games this season by 7 @ Va Tech, by 23 @ Georgia Tech, and by 10 @ Notre Dame. Pitt is significantly better than the first 2 listed and we have them power rated about 2 points better than ND on a neutral field. These teams have played a similar strength of schedule yet Pitt numbers are much better. The Panthers are +1.8 YPP, +1.1 YPC, +2.4 yards per pass attempt, and +198 YPG. UNC’s numbers are +0.9 YPP, +0.6 YPC, +1.5 yards per pass attempt, and +68 YPG. This Pitt team isn’t talked about much and they are flying under the radar. They continue to be undervalued covering 5 of their last 6 games by 81 points (average cover by 13.5 points). On the other side, North Carolina was an overhyped team coming into the season and they have not lived up to expectations. They are just 2-4 ATS their last 6 with their only covers coming vs a terrible Duke team and by a half point last week at home vs Wake. Pitt gets this one by double digits. |