Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-14-23 | Phillies -141 v. Reds | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
#901 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -145 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 6:40 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Phillies have struggled early this season but we like the way this sets up for them. The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Connor Overton and Taijuan Walker. Note that these pitchers just squared off and the Reds won that game but Walker had the better start though he had command issues. Both starters have struggled a bit early this season but Walker has allowed only 7 hits in 9 innings while Overton has allowed twice as many hits (14) in one less inning of work (8). Another key we like here is Overton has particularly struggled against lefties. The Phillies likely to have at least 4 left-handed bats in the lineup tonight. Then when you look at who their right-handed hitters are, the group includes some of their best, biggest, and most dangerous sticks. Guys like Bohm and Turner and Castellanos and Realmuto. Also another right-handed bat, Sosa has hit the Reds pitching very well this season. We feel that Overton will again struggle in this one while Walker's stuff will again prove tough to hit. In his 3rd start of the season Walker also should have better command in this one too. The Phillies lost to Lodolo and the Reds yesterday but entered that game having won 8 of last 10 games against Cincinnati. Also, Lodolo has been at the opposite end of the spectrum in comparison to how Overton is throwing. The Reds were 50-92 last season against NL opponents and they remain one of the worst teams in the league. Also, Cincinnati is just 2-6 this season against right-handed starters. The Reds have the slightly better record than the Phillies early this season but there is a reason this game is priced this way and it fact it opened up at an even higher price so we are happy to grab the extra value after the early market movement. Road rout for the Phillies with the edge in lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen. The value is on the Phillies here ... even at a -145 price.
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04-13-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | 5-0 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 38 m | Show | |
#954 ASA PLAY ON 8* St Louis Cardinals -1.5 on the Run Line (-120) over Pittsburgh Pirates, Thursday at 7:45 PM ET - Take action here as we grab the much better team at home and ready for a home blowout win regardless of the starters. The Pirates are expected to start Vince Velasquez. He struggled to find the plate in spring training and he has more walks than strikeouts so far this season. This will be his 3rd start of the young season and he rolled his left ankle so he is not quite 100% and this will not help him today either. That said, Cardinals bats should roll here and their expected starter is Jared Montgomery. While Velasquez has a 9.82 ERA so far this season, Montgomery has a 2.25 ERA in his first two starts and is coming off a dominating effort over the Brewers in his most recent start. He is 16-6 in night starts since the start of the 2021 season and Pittsburgh's 5 losses this season have all been by at least 2 runs and 4 of the 5 by at least 4 runs. In fact, the average margin of defeat in Pittsburgh losses has been 5 runs. The Pirates were shutout yesterday and have been held to 2 or less runs scored in 3 of last 4 games. The Cardinals have played a tough schedule but are off B2B wins and are starting to turn the corner after facing tough competition to begin their season. All 5 Cardinals wins this season have been by at least a 3 run margin. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and only having to lay a small price in the -120 range with the Cardinals. Lay it! |
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04-12-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Miami Marlins, Wednesday at 4:05 PM ET - As we mentioned Friday in the most recent start for Zach Wheeler, he had struggled in his first start this season but it was on the road. Sure enough, Wheeler bounced back at home Friday with a respectable start and he truly dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a mediocre (at best) Marlins lineup here. The Marlins got the 8-4 win over the Phillies yesterday but were 35-46 in road games last season. This season all 7 of the Marlins losses have been by at least 2 runs and actually Miami's average margin of defeat is 6 runs per loss which shows how bad their bullpen can fall apart in games. In this case that bullpen could be called upon early too because Edward Cabrera just can not find the plate this season. Sometimes starters will have a one-off game where they just can not throw strikes but something is not right with Cabrera. He walked 6 batters in his first start and 7 batters in his second start and this was in an average of only 3 and 1/3 innings per start! Phillies, including post-season, are on a 56-38 run in home games including 23-9 last 32. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler over Cabrera, the defending NL Champs over one of the weaker teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here as the Phillies are already a perfect 2-0 this season when at home off a loss and they won those two games by a combined score of 20 to 5. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it! |
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04-11-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show | |
#970 ASA PLAY ON 8* Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 on the Run Line (-135) over Detroit Tigers, Tuesday at 7:07 PM ET - The Tigers have lost 7 of 9 games this season. In those 7 losses Detroit has scored an average of only 2 runs per game! All 7 defeats were by at least a 3 run margin. Detroit just does not have the lineup to keep up with the high-powered Jays here. That is why we like this run line play with action on the pitchers but we will mention that the projected pitching match-up of Alek Manoah versus Matt Manning certainly does give the Blue Jays a starting pitching edge here. The Tigers have given up 7 runs per game so they have some bullpen issues too as you can see with that number. The big problem here for Detroit is an inability to score enough to keep up with the high-powered Jays. Toronto has won 5 of 6 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during that stretch and now this is their home opener. They should tee off on Manning as he was 1-4 with 6.63 ERA on the road in 2021 and had a 4.94 ERA in his 2022 road starts. This is his first road start this season while Manoah will be happy to be at home where he is 12-4 with a 2.39 ERA in his first two seasons. He also is coming off a start on the road last week in which he allowed 0 runs and just 1 hit in 7 innings. Regardless of the starting pitchers we have the much stronger team in their home opener and this match-up has dominance written all over it! We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Blue Jays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-10-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
#907/908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 11.5 Runs – St Louis Cardinals @ Colorado Rockies, Monday at 8:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their most recent starts. Expected starters are Steven Matz for Cardinals and German Marquez for Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have lost 6 of 8 and allowed 7.6 runs per game in the 6 losses and are off a high-scoring 7-6 win over the Nationals yesterday. As for the Cardinals they have lost 6 of 9 games this season and have allowed an average of 6 runs per game in the 6 defeats. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Marquez got destroyed in his home starts last season and of course Matz is unlikely to enjoy this start at pitcher-friendly Coors Field. In fact, Matz has been roughed up by the Rockies in his career and this is particularly true in his starts at Coors Field where he has been hammered in his visits here in recent years. Rockies offense slow out of the gate this season but Sunday it was apparent they garnered some momentum from Saturday's 9th inning rally that had fallen just short on the scoreboard. The Cardinals are a high quality team that has struggled recently on offense because of facing tough pitchers at Milwaukee and versus Atlanta. Facing pitching like that and then facing the Rockies at Coors Field is truly a night and day difference! St Louis will get their offense going here. Over is the call in this one Monday evening. |
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04-09-23 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
#957/958 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 11.5 Runs – Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies, Sunday at 3:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their opening starts. Expected starters are Chad Kuhl for Nationals and Ryan Feltner for Rockies. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Rockies have lost 6 of 7 and allowed 7.6 runs per game in the 6 losses and the Nationals have had two low-scoring games this season but have allowed 7 runs per game in the other 7 games. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Kuhl allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his season opener and Feltner had control issues and that helped lead the way to 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work. The total on this game is relatively low considering the last two games in this series have averaged 14 runs. We are going to challenge these starters and these bullpens to turn things around here. Rockies offense slow out of the gate this season but can garner momentum from yesterday's 9th inning rally. The Nationals offensive production has led the way to an average of 8.5 runs per game last two games. Over is the call this afternoon. |
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04-08-23 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | 0-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
#918 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Oakland A's, Saturday at 4:10 PM ET - Tampa Bay won 9-5 yesterday. The Rays are now 7-0 on the season while the A's dropped to 2-5 on the season. Only 1 of Oakland's 5 losses has come by a one-run margin and all 7 of Tampa Bay's wins have been by a multi-goal margin. That said, the odds favor any Tampa Bay win coming by a multi-run margin. So how about the likelihood of a TB win? Well, it certainly is not a mistake that they are favored by nearly a -300 price on the money line in this one. This Rays team has been dominating. Tampa Bay is scoring about 7 and 1/2 runs per game and allowing only 2 and 1/2 runs per game. The A's, on the other hand, are allowing 7 runs per game and scoring 4 runs per game. Our computer math model is showing a high probability of multi-run win for the hosts here. Yesterday the Rays hit 5 homers and also flashed stellar defense in the field. All facets of the game are going well for the Rays right now. TB should pound Shintaro Fujinami. He was rocked in his MLB debut for the A's and gave up 8 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings and that was at home. Now he is on the road and facing the hottest team in MLB. Jeffrey Springs gets the start for the Rays here and we will mention that we like this play no matter who the starting pitchers are but Springs was absolutely dominant in his first start this season. Springs went 6 scoreless and hitless innings and allowed just 1 walk and struck out 12 batters. He is 14-6 the past two seasons and had a dominant 2.46 ERA last season. This match-up has dominance written all over it again and we think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-07-23 | Reds v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 115 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
#978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 on the Run Line (+115) over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 3:05 PM ET - Extra rest is not exactly welcome this early in the season. Lineups are trying to get their timing going at the plate. Starting pitchers are trying to get settled into their regular routine. That said, this is a very tough spot for the Reds and particularly Hunter Greene. Cincinnati was supposed to play the Cubs Wednesday in the finale of that series but it was rained out. Then the opener of this series with the Phillies was rained out. Greene started the season opener for Cincinnati so he was supposed to pitch on more typical rest Wednesday but did not. Then Thursday's game was rained out and, remember, the Reds had an offday last Friday too. So they have played just 4 games in the past 7 days. The hitters are impacted and Greene is definitely impacted here. As for Wheeler, he pitched Saturday so he is in good shape here. Wheeler struggled in his first start this season, as did Greene, but Wheeler dominated at home last season with a 6-3 record and a 1.85 ERA and also the prior season he was 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA in starts in Philly and 4-0 at Citizens Bank Park in 2020. As a member of the division rival Mets prior to 2020, he dominated in terms of hits per innings pitched in starts in Philly. The fact is Wheeler loves it at CBP and dominates a bad Reds team here. This is Cincinnati's first road game and the Phillies first home game this season. Reds were 29-52 in road games last season. On the year last season, 77% of the Reds losses were by at least 2 runs. Phillies, including post-season, are on a 53-36 run in home games including 20-7 last 27. Phillies 6-1 L7 against the Reds and 4-0 L4 at home and the 6 wins by an average victory margin of 3 runs. The home/road dichotomy, the edge of Wheeler on good rest over Greene on too much rest, the defending NL Champs over one of the worst teams in MLB...it all adds up to a must play here. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +115 money range with the Phillies. Lay it!
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04-06-23 | Red Sox v. Tigers OVER 7.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 56 m | Show |
#911/912 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 7.5 or 8 Runs – Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers, Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in their opening starts. Expected starters are Chris Sale for Red Sox and Spencer Turnbull for Tigers. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as the Tigers are allowing 6 runs per game on the season and the Red Sox are allowing 6 runs per game as well. Both bullpens have had some struggles and, as for those expected starters, Sale got hammered at home by the Orioles in his season opener. Keep in mind, he has not logged much MLB action since the 2019 season. He still carries a certain reputation in the marketplace but is not exactly the same pitcher he once was. Sale had a 4.80 ERA and a .288 BAA in spring training and has been homer prone, including his regular season opener, so far in 2023. As for Turnbull, he had a 4.50 ERA and was decent in spring training but then got rocked by the Rays in his regular season opener. The total on this game is low considering and we like the downward move from an 8.5 to a 7.5 as we are going to challenge these starts and these bullpens to turn things around here. We just do not see that happening. Historically, Turnbull has struggled much more in day games than night games and this is an early start in Detroit today. Also, Turnbull trying to come back from Tommy John surgery and missed last season. Tigers offense slow out of the gate this season but this is their home opener and that should get them going. The Red Sox are averaging 6 runs per game in the scoring department this season and should bounce back off yesterday's disappointing home loss. Over is the call this afternoon.
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04-05-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
#969 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Wednesday at 1:05 PM ET - As mentioned here in our play on Tampa Bay run line in their 10-6 win over the Nationals, the fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are perfect on the season and the Nationals have just one win on the season. Washington, entering yesterday's action, was tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Though they finally scored well yesterday, the Nationals also gave up a pile of runs and, once again, Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 5-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 2. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 4 losses and by an average score of 7.5 to 2.8. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 6-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. As for the projected starters here, Corbin is off a nightmare season last year and then began this season with a horrific start versus Braves in which he allowed 7 hits and walked 3 in just 3 innings. The Rays are expected to start McClanahan here and he had a dominating first start of the season versus Detroit and he is coming off a stellar season for Tampa Bay. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one laying a moderate, but not huge, price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-04-23 | Rays -1.5 v. Nationals | 10-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
#925 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-110) over Washington Nationals, Tuesday at 7:05 PM ET - ACTION on pitchers is a key here as the Rays currently have Josh Fleming listed as a starter but he is really more of a long reliever and Tampa Bay could use a different pitcher as an opener. Overall, this is likely to be more of a bullpen game for the Rays. The Nationals are expected to start Chad Kuhl here and he went 6-11 with a 5.72 ERA with the Rockies last season. The key to this match-up though has nothing to do with the pitchers. The fact is that the Rays are the overall better team and are 4-0 on the season and the Nationals are 1-3 on the season and tied with the lowly Marlins for least runs scored (9) on the season. Washington just will not be able to keep up here. The Rays are 4-0 and with their wins by an average score of 7 to 1. That is domination. Speaking of domination, the Nationals have been on the wrong end of it. Washington has 3 losses and by an average score of 7 to 2. Neither team has been involved in a game decided by less than 3 runs so far. We look for continued domination from the red hot Rays here and they get the win and improve to 5-0 on the season. Better bullpen, better lineup, and better overall team. There have not been a lot of one-run games (24.6%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and take advantage of a pick'em price in what should be a Tampa Bay blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and not having to lay any big price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here! |
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04-03-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 126 | 16 h 11 m | Show | |
#976 ASA PLAY ON 8* New York Yankees -1.5 on the Run Line (+125) over Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 7:05 PM ET - Phillies are 0-3 to start the season and off a 1-run loss down in Texas last night. The first two defeats this season were blowout losses and this is tough spot for Philly as they had the Sunday night game down in Texas yesterday and then had to travel back to the Northeast for this one and lose an hour on the clock in the process. The Phillies are a shell of last year's team right now with Bryce Harper still out and Rhys Hoskins lost for the season. Those are two very big bats and the Phillies have scored just 4 runs total the last two games and now face a tough Yankees southpaw. They have very little experience with facing Nestor Cortes and what little they have has not been good. Conversely, the Yankees are quite familiar with Phillies starter Taijuan Walker. That's because he is a former Met and would face them annually in the Subway Series. They have a number of hitters that have pounded him and also he has been taken deep often in his starts versus the Yankees. Our computer math models project Walker gets hit hard and Cortes throws a gem. No matter the pitchers here, we like the powerful and healthier Yankees over a Phillies team struggling out of the gate. No team has a worse run differential than the Phillies -18 and also Philadelphia's 29 runs allowed is the worst mark in the majors and, keep in mind, 10 teams have already played 4 games this season and yet Phillies runs allowed worst of anyone in baseball. There have not been a lot of one-run games (22%) so far this season and the money line is a little too heavy on this one for our liking so we'll turn to the run line and look to cash some plus money on a New York blowout. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one and getting a nice comeback price in the +125 money range with the Yankees. Lay it! |
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04-02-23 | Angels -143 v. A's | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
#921 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -145 over Oakland Athletics, Sunday at 3:05 PM ET - The Athletics are headed for another rough season and this is a team that went 16-27 against southpaw starters last season. This one Sunday is a match-up of lefties and the Angels should hold the upper hand. The A's got 2 runs in the bottom of the 8th for a 2-1 win in the season opener between these teams. However, after what happened Saturday, that means they have barely held a lead in this series. Oakland's only lead has been heading to the top of the 9th Thursday. In Saturday's game they gave up an 11-spot in the top of the 3rd! The Angels should roll big again Sunday. Ken Waldichuk gets the start here and he has only 7 career MLB starts and those were just last season. Then, this year in spring training he went 0-4 with a 10.54 ERA. Not only did he get hit very hard, the A's lefty also walked an average of 1 batter per inning this spring. The Angels take advantage in this one and former Dodger Tyler Anderson, coming off a strong season, makes his Angels debut here and should shine. Unlike Waldichuk, Anderson is coming off a great spring in which he had a 1.35 ERA in his 3 starts. Also unlike Waldichuk, Anderson is entering his 8th MLB season! He is a veteran that just went 15-5 with a 2.57 ERA last season with the Dodgers. The Angels, when healthy, are a tough team and can challenge in this division. The A's are one of the worst teams not only in the division but in the entire league. There are no signs of an Oakland turnaround in sight and we think yesterday's blowout win is a sign of what is to come Sunday afternoon as well. Road rout for the Angels with the edge in lineup, starting pitcher, and bullpen. The value is on the Angels here ... even at a -145 price. |
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04-01-23 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
#959/960 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 8.5 Runs – Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres, Saturday at 8:40 PM ET - Both these pitchers struggled in spring training. Expected starters are Jose Urena for Rockies and Michael Wacha for Padres. We like the over here regardless of the starting pitchers as San Diego is now 0-2 on the season dropping the first two games of this series with the Rockies and we expect a response at the plate tonight. Colorado now has 11 runs on 26 hits in the first two games of this series. The Rockies are a confident bunch right now and getting some strong at-bats but the Padres have a very solid lineup and get back track here. Urena was hit hard last season and lefties hit him at a .327 clip. Keep in mind, San Diego had 5 left-handed sticks in the lineup Thursday versus the righty Marquez and will likely do the same against Urena. Then you look at their right-handed lumber and it is dangerous with guys like Boegaerts and Machado plus you have a red-hot Kim off a 3-hit game. The Padres will hit well but the Rockies too as Wacha had struggled 3 straight seasons before last year's success and we are not convinced, based on his spring too, that he is going to be able to come close to duplicating that 2022 success this season. That is particularly true early on as it looks like he could be slow out of the gate. Also, weather looks good tonight with temps in the low 60's to upper 50’s and light winds blowing. Over is the call tonight. |
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03-31-23 | White Sox v. Astros -153 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
#908 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -155 over Chicago White Sox, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - We like the value here with Houston off a loss yesterday and Cristian Javier on the mound. Javier is off a season in which he had a 2.54 ERA and he was solid in his only start versus the White Sox. As for Chicago's Lance Lynn, he has found Minute Maid Park to be a house of horrors in recent seasons. Overall, even when he faces them as a host, Lynn has struggled. Particularly in Houston though, the numbers are very ugly. He is 0-5 with 23 earned runs allowed in 31 innings the past 4 seasons in his starts at Minute Maid Park. Lynn has allowed 10 homers in those 5 starts at Minute Maid Park. The White Sox got a strong start from Dylan Cease yesterday and that keyed the win but we just do not see a repeat of that here with Lynn on the mound. That said, and considering Javier's ability to dominate starts, this looks like a great bounce back spot for the Astros. We like the Astros to have an early advantage here based on the starting pitchers and grab a lead then handing it off to a top notch bullpen. Yes, they blew the save yesterday but this is very unusual for this team and this bullpen and that is even more reason they respond with a stronger close-out in the final frames of this game. Houston also should hit much better today as, of course, there is only one Dylan Cease in this White Sox rotation (no one else in this rotation is on his level) and of course he will not be pitching today after going yesterday! The Astros, including post-season, have won 10 of the last 12 times in a game following a loss and the value is on Houston here - even at a -155 price. |
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03-30-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
#961 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -1.5 on the Run Line (-140) over Washington Nationals, Thursday at 1:05 PM ET - Atlanta dominated this series during the regular season last year including winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 10 of the 14 wins Braves had over the Nationals came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings last season, the Braves had a +49 run differential which equates to +2.6 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. Atlanta should have a big advantage on the mound here as they are expected to send Fried to start their season opener. Fried is 4-0 in his last 4 decisions vs Washington and is sporting a 52-20 record in the past 4 seasons combined and he finished last season with an outstanding 2.48 ERA. Corbin will be the likely starter for the Nationals here and he led the National League in 3 categories last season that no pitcher wants to lead in! Corbin had 19 losses and allowed 107 earned runs and gave up 210 hits! He is in trouble here against one of the best teams in the league and facing them as a member of a Nationals team that is one of the worst teams in the league. Corbin was poor against the Braves last year as well with a 9.42 ERA and OBA of .391 as Braves hit nearly .400 against hime! He faced Atlanta 4 times last season and was rocked for 15 ER’s in just 14 innings of work. The visitor has the better bullpen and, entering a new season, they of course have all the key arms available for this one other than injured closer Raul Iglesias. However, his short-term absence for Atlanta is mitigated by the fact they have such depth - including in the bullpen - and can lean heavily on guys like AJ Minter, Joe Jimenez and Collin McHugh. They are rested and ready and we're getting this Braves team with a top starter on the mound vs a Nationals team with a guy that would be a 4th starter on most teams and not an opening day guy. Corbin was one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball last season. We think we're getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one even at a price in the -140 money range with the Braves. Lay it! |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – Houston Astros vs Philadelphia Phillies, Monday at 8 PM ET - We like the value on the total here. We were on the Under in Game 2 which was 7 runs and that was with Philadelphia ace Wheeler and Houston #2 starter Valdez on the mound. Now these 2 push down to their #4 and #3 starters with McCullers and Suarez and the total went up only a half a run. The Phillies are back home where they excel offensively and put runs on the board. In their 5 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park they scored 35 runs for an average of 7 RPG. Most of those games were vs high level starting pitchers including Darvish & Musgrove for San Diego and Strider and Morton for Atlanta. On the season the Phillies scored the 4th most runs at home with an average of 5.3 per game. Houston has averaged 4.6 RPG over their 9 game post-season scoring at least 4 in 7 of those 9 games. That includes Houston putting up 10 runs in the first 2 games of this series facing Philadelphia’s 2 ace starters Wheeler and Nola. Those 2 starters allowed 9 ER’s in 9.1 innings pitched in games 1 & 2. The Astros have had more success vs left handers this year compared to right handed pitchers. They’ve hit .260 on the season vs lefties (.238 vs RH) and they are averaging 5.1 RPG (4.4 vs RH). Suarez pitched in relief last week in this series and the one start he had vs Houston (in early October) he was shelled for 6 ER’s in just 3 innings of work. The drop down in starters on both sides should provide both teams with a solid opportunity to be successful offensively. Weather will be much better tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing from left to right. We like OVER 7.5 Runs here. |
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10-29-22 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs - Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros, Saturday at 8 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 of the series in a higher scoring 6-5 game but we like tonight’s match up to stay Under 7. The Phils have their top starter on the mound tonight in Zach Wheeler. He has been outstanding all season long but he’s turned his game up a notch in the post-season. He has started 4 games in the playoffs totaling 25.1 innings and he’s allowed just 10 hits during that stretch and 5 earned runs. The Houston line up has seen very little of Wheeler with 11 total plate appearances among their entire team and he did not face them this season giving him a big advantage here in our opinion. The Phillies will face Houston starter Valdez and he has been lights out as well in the post-season. He’s pitched 12.2 innings in the playoffs giving up just 8 hits and 2 ER’s. Both are low HR pitchers allowing 0.76 and 0.50 per innings so the long ball will be tough to come by tonight after they combined for 3 round trippers last night. After these 2 exit, the Houston bullpen has been one of the best in baseball all season with a 2.67 ERA and while Philadelphia’s relievers weren’t as impressive during the regular season, in their 12 playoff games their ERA is just 2.81. Neither of these teams has a great batting average in the post-season, both right around .230, but the Phillies have been fortunate to hit .307 in the playoffs with runners in scoring position, well above their team batting average. Some regression is expected on that end, especially vs Valdez who has held this line up to a .135 batting average (lifetime) in 42 plate appearances. When Wheeler and Valdez have started in the post-season (4 starts) their games have averaged a total of 5 runs. We see another low scoring game tonight in Houston. |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
#971/972 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 7.5 Runs – San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 7:35 PM ET - Two polar opposite ballparks in this series as San Diego is a pitcher’s park that averages 7.32 total RPG on the season while Philadelphia is a hitter’s park that averages over 9 total RPG on the year. The Phillies averaged 5 RPG at home this season which was the 4th most in MLB. In their 2 post season games they scored 9 & 8 runs vs a very good Atlanta pitching staff and the shelled both starters – Strider and Morton – who are top of the line rotation guys. Philadelphia has scored at least 4 runs in 19 of their last 23 home games. They’ll be facing SD starter Musgrove who has been pitching well but struggled in his only appearance vs Philly this year where they lit him up for 6 ER’s in 6 innings pitched. The Padres will face Philly left hander Suarez who is considered their 3rd or 4th best starter. He has an ERA at home of 4.27 and his WHIP on the season is a rather high 1.33. San Diego has been a solid hitting team vs lefties averaging 4.5 RPG on the season and on the road they’ve put up almost 5.5 RPG vs south paws. Weather looks good tonight with temps in the 60’s and light winds blowing out. Over is the call tonight. |
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10-19-22 | Phillies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
#953/954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres, Wednesday at 4:30 PM ET - The Phillies took game 1 last night by a final score of 2-0 with the two teams combining for only 4 hits and 7 total baserunners. We see a similar result this afternoon. Both teams have high level starters taking the mound with the Phillies Aaron Nola and the Padres Blake Snell. Nola has been red hot in the post-season not allowing a single run in 12.2 innings pitched. Going back to the end of the regular season, he has not allowed an earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. He faced the Padres just once this season and allowed 1 earned run in 7 innings with 10 strikeouts. San Diego will counter with Blake Snell who held the high powered LA Dodger line up to 1 earned run in 5.1 innings of work last Friday. He has been sharp as of late allowing just 5 earned runs in his last 6 starts combined. In 78 combined plate appearances, the current Phillies line up is hitting just .191 lifetime vs Snell. Neither team has been lighting it up at the plate in the post-season with Philadelphia hitting .218 and San Diego hitting .219. Both have relied heavily on the HR to put runs on the board and that’ll be tough today as both Nola (0.83) and Snell (0.77) are allowing well less than 1 HR per 9 innings pitched. Petco Park is always known as a pitcher’s park and this year was no exception as the average total runs scored here is 7.32 for the season. With the wind blowing in from left field this afternoon at 10 MPH, this game sets up as another low scoring affair. Let’s take the Under in this one. |
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10-18-22 | Guardians +165 v. Yankees | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 36 m | Show |
#925 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cleveland Guardians +150 over NY Yankees, Tuesday at 4:05 PM ET - Game 5 with the winner moving on to face Houston in the ALCS. We like the value here with Cleveland and Civale on the mound. He has pitched very well down the stretch allowing 2 ER’s or less in 8 of his last 9 starts. Over his last 10 starts, he’s allowing just 1.9 ER’s per 5 innings pitched. While Civale’s ERA is 4.92, he’s pitched better than that with an xERA of 3.80 and an xFIP of 3.62. Yesterday the NY starter was scheduled to be Taillon and we really liked that match up for Cleveland. Now that Cortes will start, we still think the Guardians have some advantages. First he will be starting a very short 3 days rest after throwing 92 pitches. Cortes has only done that once in his career and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits in just 2.1 innings. Second, Cleveland has some decent success vs Cortes a few days ago with 9 baserunners in just 5 innings but they were only able to come up with 2 runs. After struggling at the plate but still getting the 2 game sweep of TB in their wildcard series, Cleveland has been the better offensive team here with 14 more hits so far in the first 4 games. They’ve outhit the Yankees in 3 of the 4 games with yesterday’s game ending with each team having 6 hits. NY is hitting just .177 in this series and we don’t see them breaking out tonight. The bullpens are nearly even with a slight edge on the season to Cleveland with a better ERA and WHIP. As of late the Cleveland relievers have been nearly unhittable with an ERA of 0.74 through the last 5 games and 1.73 over the last 10. There is an outside chance that Bieber will start this game for Cleveland and we’re still on board with that. He’ll be coming off 3 days rest similar to Cortes (discussed above) and at that point we’d call starters even (short rest & similar stats) but we like the way the Cleveland bullpen and hitters are performing more so than the Yankees. The Guardians have won their last 8 games following a loss and the value is on Cleveland here at +150. |
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10-14-22 | Braves v. Phillies OVER 6.5 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
#961/962 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 6.5 Runs – Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies, Friday at 4:35 PM ET - This total was sitting at 7.5 last night in anticipation of Morton starting for the Braves. They have since decided to start Spencer Strider and because of that the total dropped a full run to 6.5. Strider has been great this season but he hasn’t pitched in a month. He’s been on the DL and we can’t expect him to be at the top of his game in this one. His pitch count will also be limited in this game. On the season Strider had much better numbers at home compared to on the road where the Braves were just 7-7 in his 14 starts. Nola takes the hill for the Phillies. He’s off a very good outing @ St Louis in his only playoff start this year, however Atlanta has had solid success vs him this season as he allowed 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his 5 starts vs the Braves. These are 2 of the top offensive teams in baseball. They both rank in the top 9 in MLB in RPG, OPS, HR’s, and batting average. This is the lowest total set on a game between these 2 NL East rivals this season and we don’t think it’s warranted. Only 2 of their 10 meetings in Philly this year resulted in less than 8 total runs scored. They averaged 9.4 total runs per game this season when playing in Philadelphia. When playing at home this season (vs all teams), Philadelphia games averaged over 9 total runs. Weather looks good with temps in the mid 60s and light wind blowing out to right. We’ll take Over 6.5 in this one. |
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10-11-22 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
#924 ASA TOP PLAY ON LA Dodgers -1.5 on the Run Line (+100) over San Diego Padres, Tuesday at 9:35 PM ET - LA dominated this series during the regular season winning 14 of the 19 meetings and 13 of those wins came by at least 2 runs. In their 19 meetings this season, the Dodgers had a +63 run differential which equates to +3.3 runs per game and that includes their 5 losses. Pretty dominant to say the least. LA should have a big advantage on the mound here as they will send either Kershaw or Urias to start game 1. Both were outstanding vs San Diego this season with Kershaw sporting a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Padres and Urias came in with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts. Clevinger will be the starter for San Diego after they used their top 3 starters over the weekend in NY. He has not pitched since October 1st and is coming off an illness so he may not be at 100%. Clevinger was poor on the road this year as well with a 5.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.35. He faced LA 3 times this season and was rocked for 14 ER’s in just 13 innings of work. The host has had the better bullpen all season long (2nd in ERA and 1st in WHIP) and they have all arms available for this one. They are rested and ready while Padres are off emotional 3 game east coast series vs Mets. We’re getting this rested LA team with their top starter on the mound (either Urias or Kershaw) vs the Padres 4th starter. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at even money with the Dodgers. |
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10-07-22 | Rays v. Guardians UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
#945/946 ASA PLAY ON Under 6 Runs – Tampa Bay @ Cleveland, Friday at 12:05 PM ET - These 2 teams are very similar in that they are pitching and defense first and neither offense has much in terms of power numbers. They have the 2 lowest team ERA’s and they have hit the fewest HR’s of all the teams in the wild card round. These 2 offenses rank 26th and 29th in in HR’s per game and 21st and 25th in slugging percentage. With cold temps on Cleveland (low 50’s) and the wind blowing straight in at 15 MPH, we don’t expect any long balls in this one which should limit scoring. These two met 6 times this year, including 3 times last week, and averaged just 6.6 total RPG. To this total is set basically right at that number but each team has their top starting pitcher on the mound which tells us this number should be set lower. Cleveland’s starter Shane Bieber was very strong this season especially down the stretch allowing just 1.7 ER’s per game over his last 10 starts (Average of 6.1 IP per start). He allowed just 0.8 HR’s per 9 innings this season and as we mentioned with TB’s lack of power, this will be a station to station game. The Rays McClanahan’s numbers aren’t as solid in the 2nd half of the season but he still allowed just 2 ER’s or fewer in 5 of his last 6 starts. The lefty should have success vs a Cleveland offense who’s top hitters are left handed. The Guardians ranked 29th in MLB in OPS vs southpaws and 28th in slugging percentage. Both bullpens are very good ranking 5th and 7th in MLB in ERA and 3rd and 6th in WHIP. This shapes up to be a 2-1 or 3-2 type game in our opinion and we’ll grab the Under. |
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10-04-22 | Angels -135 v. A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
ASA top play on 10* LA Angels (Lorenzen) -135 vs. Oakland A’s (Irvin) – 9 :40PM ET - In the last 15 days the Angels are one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball with a .289 team average while producing 59 total runs in 13 games. Over the course of that same time the A’s are hitting just .222 as a team and have a 3-7 SU record their last ten games. LA is 8-2 SU their last ten games. These same two teams just met in late September and these two pitchers had opposite results. Irvin lost his start against the Angels 2-4 while allowing 9 hits, 3 earned runs and 2 homers in 4 innings of work. Lorenzen was a -170 favorite and won his start 4-1. He threw 5 strong innings allowing 3 hits and 0 earned runs while striking out 8. The Angles have a net +/- of runs per game of +1.90 per in their last ten contests. Oakland on the other hand has a negative differential of minus -1.30 runs per game in their last ten. Back the hot team here in Los Angeles. |
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10-03-22 | Cubs +116 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
#953 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs +115 over Cincinnati Reds, Monday at 6:40 PM ET - The Cubs are playing extremely well down the stretch despite their record and the Reds, who have 99 losses, are not. Chicago has won 10 of their last 11 games including a 3 game sweep of Philadelphia who is fighting for a wild card spot. The Cubs also just swept this Cincinnati team over the weekend and in a weird situation, they now close the season out with 3 more games vs the Reds on the road. In their series vs the Reds, the Cubs outscored Cincy 16-3. The Reds scored 1 run in each game and they have now averaged just 1.8 RPG over their last 10 with a team batting average of .170. They are not just 1-9 their last 10 games with their only win during that stretch coming at Milwaukee by a final score of 2-1. They have scored more than 3 runs just ONCE since September 17th. It won’t get any easier for the Cincinnati offense tonight facing Chicago rookie Wesneski who has made 3 starts since getting called up in September, allowing just 4 ER’s in 18.1 innings in those 3 starts. Opponents are hitting just .198 off Wesneski since getting called up. Chicago will face Hunter Greene who has made 3 starts since coming off the injured list. Those have been solid starts for Greene, but the fact is, because Cincinnati’s offense has been so poor, they’ve lost all 3 of those outings. Greene has made 23 starts this season and the Reds have won 5 of those starts. FIVE! He’s the Cubs twice this season pitching a total of 9 innings allowing 8 ER’s. Cincy continues to have one of the worst bullpens in MLB with an ERA of 4.66 and over their last 10 that number balloons to 5.36. The Cubs bullpen has been outstanding as of late with an ERA of 2.12 their last 10. We feel this is a very solid value play on the Cubs who should be favored in this one. |
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09-29-22 | A's v. Angels UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
#967/968 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – Oakland A’s vs LA Angels, Thursday at 9:30 PM ET - Two of the worst offenses in MLB squaring off in this one. The A’s rank 28th or lower (out of 30 teams) in RPG, batting average, OPS, and HR’s per 9 innings. The Angels rank 24th or lower in the first 3 categories listed above. In the first 2 games of this series these teams put up 7 and 5 total runs and tonight we have better pitchers on the mound for both teams compared to the first 2 meeting of this series. LA’s Ohtani is allowing an average of just 1.3 ER over his last 10 starts (average start of 5.2 innings). He’s been dominant at home this season with an ERA of 2.00 and in 81 innings pitched he has allowing only 63 hits with a 109 strikeouts. He’s faced Oakland twice this season and he has an ERA of 1.54 in those 2 meetings. Ohtani is one of the top strikeout pitchers in the Majors 12 per 9 innings pitched and the Oakland offense averages almost 9 K’s per 9 innings so lots of swings and misses tonight. Oakland goes with lefty Irvin tonight. He’s faced the Angels 3 times this season with an ERA of 2.54. He’s coming off a couple poor outings, however those were vs the Mets & Astros, two of the top offensive teams in MLB. We expect him to pitch much better tonight vs an LA team he’s had success against and the Angels are averaging just 3.5 RPG this season vs left handers. The 2 have faced off 15 times this season and 11 of those games have totaled 7 or fewer runs. The UNDER is 21-8-2 last 31 meetings between these AL West rivals. We’ll call for another UNDER tonight in LA. |
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09-27-22 | Cardinals v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* #957/958 OVER 8.5 RUNS St. Louis @ Milwaukee, 7:40 PM ET - St Louis is coming off two low scoring series against the Dodgers and Padres. The Dodgers have the best pitching staff in baseball with a league leading 2.83 ERA. The Padres own the 11th best team ERA but in the last 15 days they’ve been especially hot with a 2.62 ERA. The Cardinals have been shutout three times in their last seven games which has driven this total down from where it should be. These two teams are in the top 10 in total runs scored this season and the Brewers have been especially hot with 5.16 runs scored per game in their last 12. Milwaukee will send Adrian Houser to the hill with his 4.62 ERA and 6-9 record. He is 0-2 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts this season against the Cardinals, giving up nine runs (six earned) in 9 2/3 innings of work. The Cardinals will counter with Miles Mikolas who is 11-13 SU on the year with a 3.35 ERA. Mikolas has lost his last three starts and is 2-4 with a 3.07 ERA over his last seven. |
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09-23-22 | Angels v. Twins UNDER 7 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
#977/978 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 7 Runs – LA Angels vs Minnesota Twins, Friday at 8 PM ET - Terrible weather in Minnesota tonight with 10+ MPH winds blowing in, cool weather, and possible rain. Not conducive for scoring runs. The starting pitchers should also lend to a low scoring game. Ohtani starts for LA and he has been fantastic all season. He’s striking out almost 12 per 9 innings and over his last 10 starts he’s allowing just 1.7 ER’s with an average of 6 IP. Over his last 4 starts he’s allowed just 2 ER over 27 innings pitched. He’s facing a struggling Minnesota offense that is averaging less than 3 RPG over their last 10 and they rank 22nd in runs scored since the All Star Break. The Angel offense has been one of the worst all season long. They rank 26th in RPG, 25th in batting average and 26th in OPS. They also strike out nearly 10 times per 9 innings. They are 27th in runs scored since the All Star Break and are averaging just 3.5 RPG over their last 10. They face Minnesota’s Varland who is making his 3rd start of the season. He had one very solid start vs a talented Yankee line up (2 ER allowed), struggled a bit vs Cleveland, but has 10 strikeouts in 10 IP which should match up well with LA’s strikeout prone line up. Varland had fantastic numbers in the Minors and nobody in the Angels line up has ever seen him. Let’s go UNDER the total in tonight’s game. |