Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 15-49 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 28 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 47.5 Points - Arizona @ Carolina, Sunday at 6:40 PM ET We are going to play UNDER in the Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers NFC Championship game. We will put ourselves on the opposite bet of the general public in this game and play 'under' the total. At first glance many bettors will look and say these two teams have the best offenses in the NFL, they'll score 30+ each but we really don't feel that will be the case. Let's first look at last weeks misleading results concerning both teams final scores. Green Bay and Arizona combined for 46 points but 6 of those came in OT, 7 came on a hail Mary at the end of regulation and 10 of Arizona's points came in the final 3:44 of the game. In last week's Seahawks versus Panthers game the Panthers scored just a couple minutes in, then immediately returned an INT for a TD for a quick 14-point lead. Carolina also benefitted from a short field after an INT for their third score. Then Seattle put up 10 points in the final 6 minutes of the game for 55 total points. A lot is being made of these two team's offenses but the defenses for both have been equally as good. Carolina allows just 5.0 yards per play overall (3rd) and 4.0 yards per rush (8th). Arizona gives up just 5.3YPPL (9th) and 4.0YPR (8th). When it comes to defensive efficiency ratings the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL while the Cards are 7th. The Cardinals have stayed 'under' the total in 6 of their last seven games overall (3 games versus top 15 scoring offenses) but the Panthers have gone over in 8 of their last 11. Carolina's recent 'over' run is misleading though as only one of those teams (Seattle) rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency ratings. Last year when these same two teams met in the Playoffs they combined for 43 total points and we see similar results here. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots -3 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 | Loss | -103 | 48 h 55 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET These two met right here in Denver in late November with New England as a slight 2.5 point favorite. The Pats led the game 21-7 with under 13:00 minutes remaining but the Broncs put on a furious rally and won 30-24 in OT. Brock Osweiler was the Denver QB in that one and they relied heavily on the ground game with 29 combined carries for Anderson and Hillman for 172 yards. You can bet New England and Bill Belichick will shore up their run defense here and force a less than stellar Peyton Manning to beat them. We don’t think he can do it as his skills and arm strength have diminished considerably. In fact, in last Sunday’s 23-16 win over an injury riddled Pittsburgh team, Manning’s QB Rating was just 35.9 which was his 2nd worst rating in any of his playoff games over the last decade. The Broncos struggled to beat a Pittsburgh team with a QB that couldn’t throw down field due to an injured shoulder (Roethlisberger) and a team without their top WR or RB. Even with that, Denver was trailing with 3:00 minutes remaining when they scored their go ahead TD. Despite the shoulder injury, Roethlisberger was able to put up 339 yards through the air and a 53.2 QB Rating. Needless to say, we expect Brady to have a big day on Sunday. Pittsburgh dominated the all telling yards per play stats averaging 6.7 per snap compared to just 4.6 for Denver. The Broncs had only TWO drives the entire game of 40 or more yards against an “OK” but not great Pittsburgh defense. We feel the Broncos were a bit lucky to come out of last week with a win despite facing a beat up team playing their 4th consecutive week on the road. New England led 21-6 in the 3rd and held on to top a red hot KC team 27-20. That was despite New England running 27 FEWER offensive plays! The Pats, unlike Denver, dominated the yards per play stat with 6.1 yards per snap compared to 4.6 for KC. New England has the coaching edge and a huge advantage at the most important position on the field, QB. We don’t think Denver can do enough offensively to win this game. Take the PATRIOTS. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 44.5 | Top | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 48 h 53 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44.5 Points - New England @ Denver, Sunday at 3:00 PM ET To say the Broncos offense is struggling would be putting it lightly. This team simply is not good offensively. Last week vs an average Pittsburgh defense the Denver offense had only TWO drives of 40 or more yards. That’s it and one was basically their final game winning drive. They scored 23 points but in reality they should have gotten nowhere near that number. They actually scored 10 of their 23 points in the final 3:00 minutes of the game. In fact, the two teams combined for 25 points in the first 57 minutes of the game and 14 in the last 3 minutes. Obviously Peyton Manning doesn’t have it anymore. He can’t get the ball downfield taking big plays almost entirely out of the equation. His QB Rating last week of 35.9 was his 2nd lowest in his NFL playoff career. The Pats offense has tailed off the last 3 games scoring 20, 10, & 27 points. In 2 of those 3 games they failed to reach 300 total yards. They will be facing the #1 defense in the entire NFL so we don’t look for those recent numbers to improve on Sunday. These two met earlier this year and Denver won the game 30-24 in OT. That was a deceivingly high score as it was just 14-7 entering the 4th quarter. With the total sitting where it is right now, the oddsmakers see a final score of New England 24, Denver 21. We’d be shocked if Denver was able to get to 20 points in this game and we don’t expect New England’s offense to go off. Take the UNDER here. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 114 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43.5 Points - Seattle @ Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We feel these two should easily eclipse this total. Seattle has scored at least 29 points in 7 of their last 9 games. The failed to do so last week in Minnesota but we can throw that out the window as the conditions were brutally cold and windy. We actually think that 10-9 outcome actually kept this total from pushing higher. Carolina’s offense is vastly under rated as they’ve now put up 27 points or more in 13 of their last 14 games! That includes topping 30 points 9 times during that stretch. Many may not even realize that the Panthers are the highest scoring team in the league at 31 PPG. Seattle ranks 9th at 26 PPG but their offense is playing much better than that right now. They were held to 20 points or less in 4 of their first 8 games which means their overall numbers aren’t up to par with how they are actually playing offensively right now. These two met earlier this season in Seattle and totaled 50 points and 720 yards of total offense. They also met in the playoffs last year and totaled 48 points and put up over 700 yards of offense. We see both these teams easily getting to the mid 20’s or higher and pushing this OVER this total. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers -1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 66 h 7 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Carolina -1 over Seattle, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET They had plenty of doubters, but the fact is Carolina was the best team in the NFL pretty much all season long. Getting them at home and rested at this number is a gift. Let’s not forget that the Panthers already faced off against Seattle this year and that was on the road in what many consider to be the toughest venue in the NFL. Carolina won that game 27-23 outgaining the Hawks 383 to 334. Seattle’s used up their “rabbit’s foot” last week when they won at Minnesota 10-9 as the Vikes missed a chip shot field goal to win. Minny dominated the first 3 quarters leading 9-0 heading into the 4th and Seattle had just 162 total yards at that point. While Carolina is rested and ready, Seattle is traveling for the 3rd straight week as they closed out the regular season @ Arizona. Hard to believe a team that went 15-1 is undervalued but that is the case here. The Panthers were 8-0 at winning by an average margin of 16 PPG and they are currently laying under a FG here. Seattle’s “luck” runs out on Sunday. |
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01-16-16 | Packers v. Cardinals -7 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -100 | 99 h 38 m | Show |
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast Dec 20th in Oakland then came home, went to Arizona the following week, then home to face Minnesota. And last week they went to the East coast to face Washington and now travel back to Arizona on short week having to play on Saturday. Green Bay beat Washington handily last week but we're not buying them. The Skins were over-rated and won a bad NFC East division yet they still managed to outgain the Packers despite getting beat 18-35. The Packers offense has been OK, but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona averages nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. In the recent meeting the Cards absolutely destroyed the Packers 38-8. When you factor in sacks (Arizona had 9 for minus 78 yards) the Packers and Aaron Rodgers had 77 net yards passing! Arizona racked up over 380 yards of total offense and outgained the Pack by 200 yards. After jumping up 17-0 the Cards were able to play conservative too and save 60-70% of their playbook for this rematch. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career there is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 4-14 SU their last 18 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they won by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs +5 v. Patriots | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City +5 over New England, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET New England was headed in the wrong direction at the end of the season. They had two very meaningful games to close out the year and they couldn’t win either. The Pats simply needed to win one of their final two games and they would have clinched home field throughout the playoffs. On Dec 27th the Pats lost to the Jets 26-20 and were outgained by 144 yards. Even more disturbing they then lost to Miami 20-10 and outgained by a whopping 242 yards in a game they needed to win. That was against a Miami team that had lost 5 of their previous 6 games with their only win (before New England) coming by 2-points vs a decimated Baltimore team. The big problem for them offensively is they can’t run the ball. Since losing RB Blount 3 games ago, they’ve tried to piece together a backfield by signing a slow and aging Steven Jackson to go with their current roster of James White & Brandon Bolden. In their final 3 games New England rushed for a total of 226 yards on 75 carries or just 3 YPC. Don’t expect that to change against a KC defense allowing just 99 YPG on the season. That will allow a very good KC pass rush (3 sacks per game) to tee off on an immobile and banged up (ankle) Tom Brady. Not only that, the Chief defense leads the NFL in opposing QB pass completion percentage allowing just 56%. The KC offense will be conservative and try and limit mistakes (turnovers). They will do enough to stay in this game the whole way. They have all the confidence in the world that they can win this game entering on an 11 game winning streak. Tom Brady is just 11-15 ATS in the playoffs as the Pats usually come in a bit over valued. That is the case here and we wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chiefs win this game outright. We’ll take the points as for a nice cushion. |
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01-10-16 | Packers v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | Top | 35-18 | Win | 100 | 49 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 44.5 Points - Green Bay @ Washington, Sunday at 3:40 PM ET Much has been made of the Packers offensive struggles down the stretch and we think that all changes here. Green Bay has scored just 8 & 13 points in their final two games but those came against Arizona & Minnesota, two of the top 8 scoring defenses in the NFL. Coming into those final 2 games, the Pack had scored 27 or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. We look for them to get back to that production against a below average Washington defense. Look for Aaron Rodgers and company to be much more comfortable throwing the ball against one of the worst pass defenses NFL allowing 258 YPG passing (25th in the NFL) and 7.3 yards per pass attempt (25th in the NFL). Look for Mike McCarthy to lean heavily on his best player (Rodgers) to win this game. The Packer offense will look much, much better this week. On the other side of the ball, the Washington offense played lights out down the stretch scoring at least 30 points in each of their final 3 games. QB Kirk Cousins had a great season finishing 5th in the NFL in QB Rating behind only Wilson, Dalton, Palmer, and Brady. In those final 3 games Cousins threw 11 TD’s and no interceptions. The Skins have averaged 26 PPG at home and we see no reason they don’t hit that number or at least close. Add that to what we expect to be a much improved Green Bay offense vs a poor defense and this one gets OVER the total |
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01-09-16 | Steelers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati +3 over Pittsburgh, Saturday at 8:15 PM ET These two teams met a few weeks ago with the Steelers prevailing 33-20 in Cincinnati. The Bengals actually outgained the Steelers in that game but lost their starting QB Andy Dalton on the opening drive of the game. Backup AJ McCarron played OK in relief and is a serviceable 2nd string NFL QB. The Bengals are arguably the most talented team in the playoffs and have an edge defensively here. Cincinnati is 2nd in the league in points allowed per game at 17.4PPG, 1st in opponents points per play (.270), 10th in yards per play allowed and 2nd in opponents TD’s allowed per game (1.8). The Bengals ‘weakness’ on defense is stopping the run, but as of this writing the Steelers will have a hard time exploiting that as RB DeAngelo Williams is in a walking boot (listed as doubtful). Williams had 76 yards and 2 TD’s versus the Bengals in the most recent meeting. The Bengals should exploit a Steelers secondary that is 30th in the NFL in passing yard allowed per game, giving up more than 270YPG. Early in the season when these two teams met in Pittsburgh the line was a pick’em. Then most recently in Cincy the Bengals were minus 1-point and now they are getting a full field goal at home. Home teams in the Wildcard rounds are on a 65-35 SU run and we feel the Bengals get a home win here. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans OVER 40 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 40 Points - Kansas City @ Houston, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET These two defenses played very well down the stretch but we feel their numbers during that run are a bit skewed due to the competition. The Chiefs held their final 4 opponents to 17 or fewer points but those games came against San Diego, Baltimore (without Flacco), Cleveland, and Oakland. Three of those four finished the season ranked 25th or lower in scoring and the only outlier, Oakland, finished 17th. In fact, the only offense that KC played down the stretch (final 9 games) that ranked higher than Oakland in scoring (17th) was Buffalo at 12th. Thus, the Chief defense didn’t face a single top 10 scoring offense in their final 9 games. The Houston defense has a bit more to “brag” about as they at least faced a few good offenses down the stretch including New England, New Orleans, and Buffalo. However 2 of those 3 (Pats & Bills) scored 27 or more in those games. The Texans final 3 games they faced Indy, Tennessee, and Jacksonville, all below average offenses. Now they face a KC offense that averages 25 PPG ranking them in the top 10. The Chiefs are also ranked as the 6th most efficient offense in the NFL. Houston’s offensive numbers are a bit deceiving in our opinion. When Hoyer has been the starting QB, the Texans throw the ball much more and look much better offensively. Hoyer came back last week after nearly a month off and helped the Texans put up 30 points vs Jacksonville. He has averaged just under 35 pass attempts per game and with Hoyer under center Houston has scored at least 20 points in 9 of those 11 games. With this total set so low, 20 points out of Houston will probably be more than enough to push this over. When these two met earlier in the season they scored 47 and we look for similar numbers here. Let’s also throw in the fact that we’ll have perfect weather conditions playing in Houston. We expect both teams to get into the 20’s which pushes this one OVER the number. |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3 | Top | 30-0 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Houston +3 over Kansas City, Saturday at 4:40 PM ET The Chiefs come in on a well-publicized 10 game winning streak. However, they have been far from dominant during this run outgaining those 10 opponents by an average of just 11 YPG. Turnovers have been the key as they are +16 during that 10 game run and that can’t be counted on to continue game after game. Especially vs the Texans who’ve protected the ball very well with just 10 turnovers total in their last 11 games. Let’s also not forget that while that 10 game run is impressive, they beat only 2 teams during that stretch that ended the year with above .500 records and there needs to be an “asterisk” placed by both of those games. They topped Pittsburgh with Roethlisberger out and beat Denver in the game that Peyton Manning went out and was replaced by Osweiler and didn’t come back until last week. These two met here in the season opener and KC was a 1-point favorite. The Chiefs won 27-20 but were outgained by almost 70 yards but +2 in turnovers. Down the stretch run KC was favored by 3 @ Oakland and by 3 @ SD, two non-playoff teams. Now they are laying the same or even a bit more in some places which gives us value on the host. Since 2003 NFL playoff dogs are 71-58 ATS and that trend continues in this game. |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 43.5 | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Under – Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers - 8:30 PM ET - This is a winner take all battle for the NFC North crown and we expect a defensive battle. Green Bay is still viewed as one of the better offenses in the league but the fact is they are not. They are a middle of the pack team in scoring (23 PPG) and they are averaging only 333 YPG which ranks them 24th in the NFL. They don’t have any downfield threats on the outside and Aaron Rodgers has had the play the dink and dunk game for much of the year. Their offensive line is banged up and we look for the Packers to struggle offensively again tonight. They allowed 38 points last week to the top scoring team in the league (Arizona). However the Cards scored 2 defensive TD’s in the game which really skewed their final point tally. In their 6 games leading up to last week’s match up in Arizona, the Packer defense had allowed 18, 13, 17, 23, 7, and 20 points. Minnesota comes in with one of the top defenses in the NFL (#6 in scoring allowing 19 PPG) and a so-so at best offense (scoring 23 PPG). The Vikes have looked very good offensively the last two weeks putting up a lot of points but those games were against Chicago & the NY Giants, two teams out of the playoff race with suspect defenses. They love to turn the ball (30 attempts per game) which eats up clock. The Vikes passing game is below average (31st in pass attempts per game) and lacks big play ability just as the Packers do. GB win the first match up 30-13 but the Pack had only 320 yards of total offense so they were lucky to put up 30. Even with that, that score still stays under this number. These two have been under teams all season long going a combined 9-20-1 to the UNDER. The windchill in GB tonight will be in the low teen’s and we look for a defensive battle. Take the UNDER. |
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01-03-16 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42 | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -101 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
UNDER San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos - 4:25PM ET - We will play UNDER in the San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos game. The Broncos need a win here and control their own destiny. San Diego is looking forward to the off season. The Broncos gameplan is obvious here as they'll let their defense dictate the tempo, play conservative offensively and win a game without making mistakes. The Denver defense is the best in the league: 4th in PPG allowed at 18.4, 1st in opponents yards allowed 280.9, 3rd opponents points per play .286, 1st in opponents yards per play etc...etc...etc...In the first meeting of the season the Broncos held the Chargers to less than 280 total yards of offense and just 3 points. The Chargers offense is one dimensional and predictable as their offensive line has been decimated by injuries, they have no running game and injuries at the wideout position. San Diego has scored just 3 in three of their last 6 games. They did top 20 points in three of their last six games but that came against three defenses that rank 21st or worst in the NFL...NOT 1ST! Denver runs the football on average 25 times per game but in the first meeting against the Chargers they ran it 39 times. San Diego allows 4.7 yards per rush which is 30th in the league and Denver will look to exploit that weakness again on Sunday. More running plays means less clock stoppage and a lower scoring game. Denver has topped 27 points just 4 times this year and one of those games was an OT affair. The Under is 5-1 the last six meetings including a 22-10 (32 points) game last year in Denver. The bet here is obvious...UNDER! |
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12-28-15 | Bengals v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -3 over Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Bengals clinched the AFC North with Pittsburgh’s loss on Sunday to a bit of a letdown might be in order here. It’s also their 2nd straight week having to travel west after beating SF on the road 24-14 last week. It’s not an ideal spot for the Bengals. In that game last week in San Fran the Bengals were actually outgained by what many consider the worst team in the NFL but benefitted from 4 Niner turnovers and 11 SF penalties. It was QB AJ McCarron’s first NFL start and he was OK at best throwing for 192 yards against the NFL’s 27th ranked overall defense. Now he faces the NFL’s top defense in the 2nd start of his career and he’ll have to play a whole lot better than he did last week to give Cincinnati a chance here. We’re getting some value here at home with Denver. They are off 2 straight losses and really need a win here. Both losses were of the “deceiving” nature. Two weeks ago they lost here to Oakland 17-15 despite outgaining the Raiders by almost 200 yards. Last week they had Pittsburgh on the ropes at home leading 27-10 before a furious Steeler comeback netted them a 7 point win. Two very disappointing losses should have this team very focused in front of a national audience on Monday. This becomes a HUGE game for Denver as a loss here opens the door for KC to possibly win the division. In this situation, we’re definitely willing to lay a small number with the home team that has won 30 of their last 36 games here. Take Denver! |
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12-27-15 | Giants +7 v. Vikings | Top | 17-49 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +7 over Minnesota, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET After back-to-back losses Minnesota bounced back with a convincing win over the Bears and a strong game from Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikings have not officially clinched a playoff spot but they are in a great position as they simply need a win earlier in the day by either Carolina or Seattle (both big favorites) and Minny will be headed to the post-season. That may cause a bit of a "letdown" here knowing they are in. The bigger game is next week in Green Bay which will most likely be for the NFC North Title. While the Giants were officially eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, this line has been adjusted WAY too much in our opinion. The Giants have been competitive in all but one of their 8 losses including last week's 3 point loss to the undefeated Panthers. In fact, 7 of NY's 8 losses have come by 6 points or less. This number is now set too high with a over valued Minnesota team who is just 9 points better than the Giants in point differential. Take the points. |
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12-27-15 | Packers v. Cardinals -5.5 | Top | 8-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
We like the Arizona Cardinals over the Green Bay Packers. This is a great spot to play on the Cardinals and against the Packers. Both need to win for playoff positioning so that's a wash. Green Bay is not in the best scheduling situation here having played on the West coast last week against the Raiders and now having to travel to Arizona to face the Cardinals. Green Bay won by 10 last week over Oakland but they did get outgained in the game by 80+ total yards. The Packers offense is pretty good but did you know they average a full yard less per play offensively than the Cardinals. Arizona average nearly 100 more yards per game too. Defensively the numbers are pretty similar as both give up around 5.7 yards per play but Green Bay is much worse at stopping the run as they allow 4.4 yards per rush (26th in NFL) compared to Arizona's 3.9YPR which is 10th best. The Cards have a new found weapon in running back David Johnson who has rushed for over 378 yards in the past three games and has 12 TD's on the season. With all the success Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has for a career their is one area of concern for Packer fans and that's his record on the road versus winning teams. Rodgers and the Pack are just 3-13 SU their last 16 away from home against a team with an above .500 record. Arizona gets it done at home where they win by an average of 11PPG on the season. Cards big. |
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12-27-15 | Rams v. Seahawks OVER 41.5 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41.5 Points - St Louis @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET The Seahawks offense has been on an absolute tear scoring 30 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games. The one game they didn’t reach 30 points during that stretch they put up 29. Many believe the Ram defense is one of the tops in the NFL but they look to be running out of gas. They have allowed 23 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. Last week they “held” Tampa to 23 points but the Bucs put up over 500 total yards of offense so that number was quite deceiving. The problem has been the Ram offense but they looked to have gained some momentum the last few weeks scoring 21 & 31 points. With this number set very low, St. Louis may have to get to only 14 or so points to push this over the total. We’ll look for Seattle’s offense to continue their onslaught and top 30 by themselves. The first meeting between these two (first game of the year) they put up 65 points. While we don’t expect those type numbers today, we think they can absolutely get to the upper 40’s pushing this OVER the TOTAL. |
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12-27-15 | Bears v. Bucs -3 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay -3 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET We don’t see the Bears showing up for this one. They are officially out of the playoff race and they didn’t show up to play last week vs division rival Vikings – a 21-point loss. Now on the road again in a meaningless game we think the Bears are probably done here. Tampa is off a loss @ St. Louis but they easily won the battle of the stats outgaining the Rams by nearly 200 yards! Tampa continues to play hard as they have now outgained 6 of their last 7 opponents. We realize the Bucs are out of the playoff mix as well but with a young team and young QB, they are building for next year. The Bucs have exceeded expectations this year while Chicago was anticipating a run at the playoffs and fell far short. Tampa has outgained their opponents by an average of 35 YPG and probably should have a better mark than 6-8. The weather also calls for 85 degrees and humid in Tampa which definitely favors the team that is used to those conditions. Look for Chicago to wear down in the 2nd half as Tampa pulls away. |
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12-24-15 | Chargers v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 45 m | Show |
#102 Oakland Raiders (-5.5) over San Diego Chargers - Thursday, 7:25PM CT - We are going to play on the Oakland Raiders minus the points over the visiting San Diego Chargers. As happens so often late in the season a bad team like San Diego gets a much needed win (last week over Miami) and then take the following week off in preparation for the off-season. We think that's the case this week as a bad San Diego team, that has scored just 3 points offensively in three of their last five games, and coming off a home game which might be their last in San Diego, doesn't show up. Oakland on the other hand outgained Green Bay at home last week but still lost by 10-points. San Diego is beat up on the O-line, at the receiver position and running back offensively. Oakland rates a solid edge in the running game as the Chargers have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 120.6 yards per game. Oakland also has the pass defense that can contain what the Chargers do best offensively and that's throwing the football. Oakland is 10th in opponents yards per pass (6.6) and 16th in opponents completion percentage defense. Earlier this year when these two teams met the Raiders beat the Chargers 37-29 but that final is misleading as the Bolts scored a meaningless TD with 6 seconds left in the game. San Diego is just 1-5 SU on the road this season with that win coming at Jacksonville but their other losses have all come by an average of 8PPG. Oakland has lost three straight at home but they came against Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota who are all VASTLY better than the Chargers. The Raiders will give their home fans a big win here over a Chargers team that will be more interested in Christmas and the off-season. Lay the points. |
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12-20-15 | Bengals -5 v. 49ers | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati -5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE YEAR This line is set too low. No need to over react with Bengal QB Andy Dalton out here. Let’s not forget that his replacement AJ McCarron actually had decent numbers last week if you minus his 2 picks (22 for 32 for 280 yards and 2 TD’s). Let’s also not forget that McCarron will have the entire week to prepare with the starters AND it’s not as if he needs to light it up as the QB on the other side is Blaine Gabbert who has a lifetime record of 7-25 as a starter. Even if we call it “even” at the QB spot, the Bengals are superior almost everywhere else. This is a 10-3 team, off a loss, that is still fighting for their division title playing one of the worst teams in the NFL. The Bengals have the most efficient offense in the NFL and the 8th most efficient defense. The Niners are 30th and 31st in those categories. Sure San Fran is a respectable 3-3 at home but since catching Minnesota off guard here to start the year, their other home wins have come by 1 point over Atlanta (who has lost 6 straight games) and by 5 over Baltimore (who has a 4-9 record). This is a huge game for the superior team and the line is more than manageable. Take Cincinnati. |
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12-20-15 | Browns v. Seahawks OVER 42.5 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42.5 Points - Cleveland @ Seattle, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The odds are pretty good that Seattle will put up big numbers in this game. This offense has been rolling behind QB Russell Wilson who has had one of the best 4 game runs of any QB ever in the NFL. Going back 5 games, the Seahawks have scored at least 32 points 4 times. The one time they did not reach that number, they scored 29. Now they are facing a Cleveland defense that looked solid last week holding SF to 10 points but let’s face it, the Niners have one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Prior to last week the Browns defense had allowed 5 straight opponents to reach at least 30 points. We expect that to happen again on Sunday. Cleveland’s offense had been dreadful but received a spark last week with Johnny Manziel inserted as starting QB. He responded last week putting up 24 points on almost 500 total yards. He will put them in position again this week to put points on the board but also is prone to turnovers which may give Seattle a defensive TD or a few “short” fields as well. Either way, Manziel is a positive for scoring in this game. This number is set too low and we think it goes OVER easily. |
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12-20-15 | Bears +5.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5.5 over Minnesota, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH We’ve felt all season that Minnesota was playing above their heads and they weren’t as good as their record might indicate. After starting the year winning 7 of their first 9 games, they are now proving us correct losing 3 of their last 4 games. Despite their 8-5 record, the Vikes are getting outgained by 25 yards per game. The Bears have lost 2 straight but as usual, both went down to the wire. In fact, Chicago has been right there in the vast majority of their games and could have a much better record. In fact, since their poor 0-3 start to the season, the Bears most recent 5 losses have all come by 3 or fewer points or in overtime. Despite their losing record, Chicago is outgaining their opponents by 30 YPG. These two met earlier this year and the Bears blew a TD lead with under 2:00 minutes left in a 23-20 loss. The Bears are just 1-6 at home but have a winning 4-2 mark on the road with wins over Green Bay & KC. These two NFC North rivals have had each of their last 5 meetings decided by 8 points or less. Another close game here and we’ll grab the points. |
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12-20-15 | Panthers v. Giants +4 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +4 over Carolina, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET This is a MUCH bigger game for the host Giants. They are tied atop the NFC East with Washington & Philly and simply can’t afford a slip up. Carolina has already clinched the AFC South and a bye and they will almost assuredly be the top seed in the NFC. There has been talk about head coach Ron Rivera giving some of his key players a break down the stretch to get them ready for the playoffs. Rivera’s team is a bit banged up including QB Newton, RB Stewart (out), TE Olsen, and LB Kuechly all nursing injuries. Watch for him to be very careful with this team moving forward. The Panthers are coming off an easy home win over a struggling Atlanta team but in their previous road tilt they were taken to the wire in New Orleans. The G-Men are 3-3 at home but their losses have all come by 4 points or less including a 1-point loss to New England and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants have played nearly everyone close as 6 of their 7 wins have come by 6 points or fewer. We’ve got a feeling this one could be an upset. Take the points. |
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12-17-15 | Bucs +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -103 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay +2.5 over St. Louis - Thursday at 8:30 PM ET This is a bad match up for the Rams in our opinion. The St Louis offense stinks right now. They rank 31st in the NFL in total yards and they can’t pass the ball (dead last in the NFL) because of their QB situation. Case Keenum gets his 3rd start of the season tonight and in his other 2 starts STL has done nothing through the air (136 yards & 124 yards passing). The problem is, Tampa has a very good run defense (allowing 94 YPG) so we don’t see the Rams doing much offensively tonight. Really tough to lay points with an offense that averages only 16 PPG and team that has been outgained 5 straight weeks. The Rams have scored just 6 offensive TD’s in their last 5 games. The Bucs have been a surprise this year. They are still alive for an NFC playoff berth so this is a big game for them. Tampa has outgained 5 of their last 6 opponents and they are off a home loss to New Orleans so we look for them to be extra hungry here. After a rough start to the season rookie QB Jameis Winston has played very well with 12 TD’s and just 4 picks over his last 9 games. The 6-7 Bucs have actually played better than that record indicates outgaining opponents 6.0 YPP to just 5.3 YPP. Tampa is 3-3 on the year away from home with wins over the Eagles, Saints, and Falcons. The better team is the dog here and we like Tampa. |
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12-14-15 | Giants +1 v. Dolphins | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* NY Giants +1 over Miami, Monday at 8:30 PM ET The Giants still have much more to play for as a win tonight keeps them in a tie for 1st place in the NFC East. The Fins are way out of the playoff race. New York has lost 3 straight but they’ve been right there in every game. Those losses include a 1-point setback to New England, a 6-point loss @ Washington, and an OT loss to the Jets. The Giants led both the Pats & Jets with under 2:00 remaining in the game. Miami had a couple of high effort games immediately after the firing of head coach Philbin but they have tanked it since. After beating Tennessee & Houston after the firing of Philbin, the Fins have since gone 2-4. Their two wins were “lucky” in our opinion as they beat the Eagles by 1-point but got outgained by 150 yards and beat Baltimore (without Flacco) by 2-points but were outgained again by 150 yards. All 4 of their losses during this stretch have come by double digits. NYG are the better team with much more to play for. Take Eli Manning and company tonight. |
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12-13-15 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -3 over Houston, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET After winning their first 10 games of the season the Pats have now lost back to back games for just the 3rd time since the start of the 2010 season. New England has not lost 3 games in a row since 2002. They are now 31-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss. The odds are with us that they’ll get it done here. Last week’s loss to Philly can be tossed aside. New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead but had one of the “unluckiest” games we’ve seen. They outgained the Eagles by 180 yards but Philly scored on a 99-yard interception return, an 83-yard punt return, and an fumble returned for a TD. The Eagle offense actually only scored 14 points and had just 248 total yards in their 35-27 win. Houston had somewhat of a resurgence over the past month and a half but most of their wins came against lower tier teams. Heading into their game last Sunday @ Buffalo, the Texans had won 5 of 6 with their wins coming over Jacksonville, Tennessee, New Orleans, NY Jets, and Cincinnati (the only top tier team). Last week the Texans came back down to earth in their 30-21 loss @ Buffalo. Houston is decent, but New England and Tom Brady will be out for blood after losing 2 in a row and at this low number we have to take the Pats. |
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12-13-15 | Raiders +8.5 v. Broncos | Top | 15-12 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Oakland +8 over Denver, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET The Denver offense looked terrible last week against one of the worst defenses in the league (San Diego). The Broncos offense tallied just 293 yards and only scored 10 points (they have a defensive TD) against a Charger defense that has allowed 27 PPG and 370 YPG this season. The Broncos were able to still pick up the 17-3 win against a San Diego offense that can’t run the ball at all and has been held to 3 points in 2 of their last 3 games. Much has been made of QB Brock Osweiler and his 3-0 record but the fact is those wins were by 2 points vs Chicago, in OT vs a very depleted New England team that has now lost 2 straight games, and last week vs a Charger team heading south in a hurry. We still feel Denver is over valued and this is a nice spot to go against them with huge games vs Pittsburgh & Cincinnati on deck. The Raiders have had a rough go over the last month losing 4 of their last 5 games but they have been “right there” in most of them. They lost by 3 @ Pittsburgh, by 5 @ a now hot Detroit, and despite losing by 14 last week to the sizzling Chiefs, they actually outgained KC by 130 yards and they were +12 first downs. Oakland has been waiting for this game after losing 16-10 at home earlier in the year despite Denver not scoring a single offensive TD. The Raiders showed some life offensively last week and we think they do enough to keep this game close. Too many points here and we grab Oakland. |
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12-13-15 | Steelers +3 v. Bengals | Top | 33-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 30 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR We view this 7-5 Steeler team as one of the best in the NFL right now. They might be playing as well as anyone right now. They are off a game last Sunday in which they crushed Indianapolis 45-10 outgaining the Colts by almost 300 yards! A week earlier this Pitt team completely outplayed Seattle on the road outgaining them by over 100 yards but lost a close game due to a -4 turnover margin. With QB Ben Roethlisberger now back in the line up and healthy, Pittsburgh has outgained each of their last 5 opponents by a combined total of 718 yards. The offense is clicking as they are averaging 36 PPG over their last 4. In those four games the Steeler offense has put up 597, 538, 522, and 459 yards. Cincy is 10-2 but they are not playing their best football right now and we feel Pittsburgh is the better team at this point in the season. The Bengals are 3-2 their last 5 games but their wins in that stretch have come against Cleveland (twice) & St. Louis. Their losses were at home to Houston and @ Arizona. These two teams met back on November 1st and Pittsburgh knows they gave one away in that game. The Steelers lost 10-6 but outgained Cincinnati 356 to 296. The Black & Gold were leading that game with under 3:00 minutes remaining but gave up a TD & FG in the final minutes. If it weren’t for 3 Roethlisberger interceptions ALL in his own territory and leading to 10 of Cincy’s 16 points, we have no doubt the Steelers win that game. To say the Steelers have had success playing @ Cincinnati would be an understatement. Since 1991, the Men of Steel have won 20 of their 25 games @ Cincinnati. That includes an easy 42-21 whipping of the Bengals last year as a 3-point dog. This is a MONSTER game for Pittsburgh. Sitting at 7-5 they need this game to keep their playoff hopes moving forward. The Bengals are sitting in a much better spot and this is not a must win for them. Pittsburgh is the better team right and now and we’re getting points. We’ll take them. |
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12-13-15 | Bills -1 v. Eagles | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 93 h 22 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Buffalo -1 over Philadelphia, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Heading into last week it looked to most like the Eagles had quit. There were rumblings of a divided locker room and players not agreeing with Chip Kelly, thus quitting on their coach. They had lost 3 straight games and it wasn’t pretty. They lost at home to a bad Miami team and then were crushed in back to back games vs Tampa & Detroit. Did any of that change last week with their 35-27 win over New England? We don’t think so. Let’s face it, the Eagles had luck on their side last week. Despite the win, they were outgained by 180 yards but were able to score TD’s on an 83-yard punt return, a 99-yard interception return, AND a blocked punt return. The Philly offense only accounted for 248 total yards and 2 TD’s. They were also -12 first downs and minus nearly 10 minutes in time of possession. A very, very deceiving win. This team still isn’t very good and they don’t believe in their coach. They are facing a Buffalo team that is playing very well right now. The Bills knocked off a red hot Houston team last week and they have won 3 of their last 5. Their 2 losses during that stretch came on the road @ New England by 7 and @ red hot KC by 8. Those games both went to the wire and were undecided late. Buffalo is 3-3 on the road this year and still playing hard as they try to make the playoffs with a current 6-6 record. Philly has almost no home field advantage. They are just 2-3 SU here this year and 21-26 SU their last 47 home games. Their spread record during that stint is only 18-29 ATS. Despite their “lucky” win last week, this Eagle team is heading in the wrong direction getting outgained by 520 yards over their last 3 games. Take Buffalo here. |
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12-13-15 | Redskins v. Bears -3 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -125 | 93 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago -3 over Washington, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET The Bears are off a home OT loss last Sunday to San Francisco. Despite the loss, Chicago was +7 in first downs, +73 yards, and +13:00 minutes in time of possession. They also had 1 turnover (0 turnovers for the Niners) but it was a costly one as it was a Cutler interception returned for a TD. The Bears missed 2 FG’s and were in San Francisco territory on 8 of their 13 offensive drives. Conversely, the Niners only crossed midfield 3 times before their 71-yard TD pass on their first offensive play in overtime. Chicago should have won that game easily and we expect a huge effort on Sunday as they are now in desperation mode with a record of 5-7. Washington is working on a short week after losing to arch rival Dallas on Monday night. It will be a tough turnaround for the Skins after a huge division game. Not only that, Washington thought they had pushed the game into overtime scoring they tying TD with 44 seconds remaining only to watch the Cowboys quickly get into FG range and hit a 54 yarder to win 19-16. The Redskins have actually been fairly solid at home but they flat out stink on the road. They are 0-5 away from home losing by an average margin of -15 PPG. The Bears have the better offensive AND defensive numbers on the season. Chicago is +9 YPG on the year while Washington is -30 YPG on the season. We like the Bears to bounce back after a game they should never have lost and pick up a home win on Sunday. |
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12-07-15 | Cowboys v. Redskins -150 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
MONEYLINE WAGER: REDSKINS What an ugly Monday Night game tonight between the Cowboys and Redskins but somebody has to win (and cover) and we like Washington. Both have plenty to play for as neither is officially out of the Division playoff race. The Cowboys big problem with their offense that ranks 29th in points per game (18.5PPG), 26th yards per game (331.3YPG) and 28th in points per play (.298). They have been outrushed in three of their last four games so it's not just the passing attack in Dallas that is suffering. Dallas on the road without Romo has been horrendous this season averaging just 15.3PPG their last three away from home. Washington and QB Kirk Cousins has been dynamite at home this season with 5 straight wins and which have come by an average of 11.4PPG. Washington is better than average offensively in points per play, yards per play, 3rd and 4th down conversions and red zone TD's. The Redskins have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings and we like them to get a 7 or more point home win here |
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12-06-15 | Colts v. Steelers -9 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -9 over Indianapolis, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET The Colts have been outgained in 9 of their last 10 including last week’s win at home vs Tampa. Hasselbeck is 3-0 beating Tampa, Jacksonville, and Houston but Indy was outgained in all 3 of those games by a combined margin of -132 yards. Their luck runs out here against a very good Pittsburgh game. The Steelers, who in our opinion are one of the best teams in the NFL, are in must win mode with a 6-5 record. They outplayed Seattle on the road last week in a 39-32 loss outgained the Hawks by over 100 yards. 4 interceptions were the difference in that game. Roethlisberger has been cleared to play after a concussion last week and we look for Pittsburgh to put up big numbers again offensively. They have outgained each of their last 4 opponents by a combined 420 yards. On the season Pittsburgh is +0.7 YPP while Indy is -0.7 YPP. Last year the Steeler walloped a good Indy team 51-34 putting up almost 700 total yards. That was WITH Andrew Luck at QB. Pittsburgh is the much better team here and they are backed into a corner making them very dangerous. Steelers win by at least 2 TD’s on Sunday. |
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12-06-15 | Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 points - KC @ Oakland, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET We will play OVER in the Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders game. The Chiefs got off to a horrible start to the season but have found their 'groove' by winning 5 straight. After scoring 21 or less points in three straight games prior to the winning streak the offense has exploded for 29 or more points in 4 of 5 games and have averaged 32PPG their last five. Will they score against the Raiders today? You bet they will! Oakland's defense is all of a sudden hemorrhaging points as they've allowed 29 or more points in 3 of their last 6 games. Oakland 26th in the NFL in points allowed per game at 25.5PPG and rank 20th or worse in several key defensive categories. Offensively the Raiders have plenty of weapons with QB Carr and wideouts Crabtree and Cooper. Oakland is 10th in yards per game O, 8th in points per play at .387 and 12th overall in scoring at 24PPG. Going back to the KC offense they are 5th in scoring at 26.1PPG, 5th in points per play at .418 and 11th in yards per play O. The last three meetings between these two teams have all ended with 44 or more points. The bet here is obvious to us and the stats support it...OVER! |
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12-06-15 | Jets v. Giants OVER 46 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -107 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
Over 46 Points – NY Jets @ NY Giants – One flat out bad defense and an over rated defense are what we have in this game. The Giants are dead last in the NFL in YPG allowed at 420. They also allow over 6 YPP and they have been a bit lucky this year to allow only 24 PPG. With YPG & YPP stats like the ones above, a team will usually allow usually 27 to 30 PPG. The Jets defense began the season on a tear holding 3 of their first 4 opponents to 14 points or less. Since then they’ve allowed every offense they’ve faced to score at least 20 points (7 straight games). They’ve allowed 25 PPG during that stretch which would rank them 25th in the NFL if it was a season long stat. The Jet offense has scored at least 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. The only two times they were held under that number they scored 17 and both were against top of the line defenses (Houston & Buffalo). Against bottom of the barrel type defense like the Giants the Jets have looked very good scoring 38 & 27 vs Miami, 34 vs Washington, and 28 vs Jacksonville. We look for those type numbers on Sunday. The Giant offense is one of the best in the NFL averaging 26 PPG (6th in the league). They are off a poor performance last week scoring only 14 and we look for a bounce back this week. In their four games leading up to last week the G-Men put up 27, 49, 32, and 26 points. This total is set too low and we like the OVER. |
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12-03-15 | Packers v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | Top | 27-23 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
PLAY UNDER PACKERS VS LIONS The bet to make tonight is on the UNDER in the Packer/Lions game. These teams have clearly had some ups and downs but analyzing recent trends we find both teams defenses played extremely well. The Packers have allowed 18, 13 and 17 points their last three games and over 50 less yards per game defensively in that same time frame (7th best average in the NFL last three games). The same can be said about the Lions defense the last three games as they've allowed just 16, 13 and 14 points and 80 less yards per game defensively which is the 4th best average in the past three weeks. Both teams are playing exceptionally well in the defensive backfields and can neutralize both Rodgers and Stafford forcing each team to run the football. In the first meeting of the season these two teams combined for just 650 total yards of offense and 34 total points. The 'under' has cashed 4 of the last five meetings on this field and we expect another lower scoring game tonight. |
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11-30-15 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 41 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 41 Points - Baltimore @ Cleveland, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Two of the NFL's worst defenses square off tonight and we expect both teams to put up plenty of points to go over this number. Cleveland gives up 27.7PPG which is 30th in the league, 407.3 yards per game (30th), .421 points per play (30th), 6.2 yards per play (30th) and opponents red zone TD's per game at 3.2 (31st). Baltimore is slightly better in those same categories but this isn't the same Ravens defense that had Ray Lewis playing on it. Baltimore is 23rd in points allowed per game at 24.9PPG, 17th in yards per game, 23rd in points per play and 17th in yards per play defense. The Ravens have allowed 20+ points in 9 of their last 10 games overall. Cleveland has given up 26 or more points in 7 of their last eight and 30+ in 5 of their last seven. When these two met earlier this season (the last game QB Josh McCown started) the Browns put up 33 points, 25 first downs and over 500 yards of total offense with McCown racking up 457 through the air. Baltimore has a change at QB tonight too with Matt Schaub getting the start for the injured Flacco but we don't see a dramatic drop off as Schaub has been a starter in this league for years and should be ready for the opportunity (ie: Matt Hasselbeck for the Colts). The Ravens have gone over the total in 5 of their last 8 against the rest of the AFC North and Cleveland has gone over in 4 straight at home. Even mediocre offense will look good against subpar defenses tonight. BET OVER! |
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11-29-15 | Steelers +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -104 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +3.5 over Seattle, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's AFC vs NFC GAME OF THE MONTH The Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger healthy are definitely the better team here in our opinion. Seattle just isn’t the Seattle of last year. A team that was seemed invincible at home already has 2 losses here and their home wins have come against Chicago (without Cutler), Detroit by 3, and San Fran. Pittsburgh is better than their 6-4 record as 2 of their 4 losses have come with Roethlisberger out. The two losses with him in the line up were tight games vs two of the NFL’s best (New England & Cincy). When Big Ben is in the line up, the Steelers have outgained every opponent this season. They’ve also had 2 weeks to prepare for this one giving them a huge advantage. The Seahawks have beaten up on the weaklings of the NFL and struggled with the good teams. They are 5-5 and have yet to beat a team with a current record above .500. The Seattle defense, which was impenetrable last year, has already allowed 27 or more points 5 times this season. Seattle beat SF last week and they are 0-6 ATS their last 6 following an outright win. Pitt thrives as a dog with a 32-19-3 ATS mark since 2004. We like the Steelers on Sunday. |
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11-29-15 | Bills v. Chiefs -5.5 | Top | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -5.5 over Buffalo, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME CHALK GAME OF THE MONTH The Bills are in a tough scheduling situation here coming off a HUGE Monday night affair against the Patriots and now travel to Kansas City to face a Chiefs team playing extremely well right now. The Chiefs really struggled defensively to start the season but in their last six games they've allowed just 18, 16, 13, 10, 13 and 3 points or just 12.1PPG. In their last three games the Chiefs have allowed the second fewest yards defensively in the entire NFL They've also found their rhythm offensively by scoring 23, 45, 29 and 33 points their last four games and they outgained all four of those foes. Buffalo has now been outgained their last two games and they could struggle offensively here as starting QB Tyrod Taylor is out which means EJ Manuel will be the starter. Manuel is 2-2 SU this season in his starts with 3 TD's and 3 INT's. Lifetime he's 9-10 as a starter, 4-6 on the road. Kansas City is better in terms of yards per play offense and defense and they've won their last two games at home by 35 and 10 points respectively. Kansas City is a wallet stuffing 8-3 ATS their last eleven home games and we expect them to win this home game by more than a TD. |
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11-26-15 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +9 over Green Bay, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH The Bears are playing their best football of the year right now and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if they pull this upset. Chicago is 4-3 their last 7 games, however they are “this close” to being 7-0 as all three losses were down to the wire with losing margins of 2, 3, and 3 points. Last week they took Denver to the wire in a 17-15 loss. The Packers are getting too much credit here in our opinion. Let’s not forget that before last week’s win @ Minnesota, the Pack lost 3 in a row including here at Lambeau to a 1-7 (at the time) Detroit team. Now they are laying almost double digits to an improving Chicago team? We don’t think so. The Packers are not as good as their 7-3 record might indicate. They were outgained last week @ Minnesota and have been out yarded in 5 of their last 6 games. In fact, for the season Green Bay is -27 YPG and -0.3 YPP which aren’t the normal numbers for a team that has won 70% of their games so far this season. Chicago has better overall YPG numbers on both sides of the ball as they are +12 YPG on the season. These two met earlier in the year and Chicago outgained the Packers, had more first downs, and a better time of possession in a 31-23 loss. After their rough start, the Bears have been competitive for 7 straight weeks and we see no reason that changes vs on over valued Packer team. |
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11-23-15 | Bills +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
PLAY ON: BILLS - Tonight we play on the Buffalo Bills plus the points over the host New England Patriots. These two teams met earlier this year with the Pats winning in Buffalo by 8 points. Even though the Patriots have had dominating results this year (+14.9 point differential is best in NFL) we can't ignore the points in this matchup. Of the Patriots 9 wins this season 5 have been by 8-points or less and their 4 blowout wins have come against Jacksonville, Dallas (without Romo), Miami and Washington who have a combined record of 15-25 SU. New England put up nearly 470 yards of passing offense in the first meeting but that was with RB Dion Lewis and WR Julian Edelman who are both out here with injuries. Yes, Tom Brady will move on and still be great but he'll miss Edelman who was first on the Pats roster in targets at 88, 2nd in receiving yards and 2nd in TD receptions. The Bill are finally healthy on offense after QB Taylor, RB's McCoy and Williams and WR Watkins all missed time with injuries and they put up 55 combined points the past two weeks. Even though we feel Rex Ryan is over-rated as a head coach, he does know how to prepare for the Patriots. Earlier this season when the Bills lost by 8 it was a 5-point game with just over a minute to play. Including his time with the Jets, Rex Ryan and the Patriots games have been decided by 8 points or less in 6 of the last 7 meeting, 3-points or less in 5 of those. Grab the points here in what shapes up to be a close game. |
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11-22-15 | Bengals v. Cardinals OVER 48 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 48 points - Arizona @ Cincinnati, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET Two top 5 offenses and perfect conditions lead to a very high scoring game in this one. Arizona ranks 2nd in the NFL scoring 33 PPG and Cincy is 5th at 26 PPG. Arizona leads the NFL in total offense & Cincinnati is 7th. When it comes to offensive efficiency, these two rank 2nd (Bengals) & 3rd (Cards) in the entire NFL. Both QB’s are performing at a high level as well as Palmer is ranked 2nd in QBR and Dalton is 4th. These two teams have combined to play 18 games on the season and 12 of them have gone OVER the total. Cincy is coming off by far their worst offensive performance of the year scoring just 6 points vs Houston. We expect they’ll bounce back and play very well. Arizona is off a big division game and put up 39 points on a staunch Seattle defense. We expect they’ll continue to play well on that side of the ball. This one goes OVER the number. |
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11-22-15 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 33-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Diego +3 over KC, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET We like the Bolts getting points here. KC is coming off a HUGE win @ Denver and now they head west again for the 2nd consecutive week. San Diego is off a bye week where they were able to regroup and get ready for this one. The Chargers are much better than their 2-7 record and should be very hungry off a bye. San Diego is outgaining their opponents by 50 YPG. They have outgained 7 of their 9 opponents this season. Offensively the Chargers are 4th in the NFL in total offense (413 YPG), 6th in YPP (5.9), and QB Rivers is 8th in the NFL in QBR. Those numbers do not add up to a team with just 2 wins at this point of the season. Five of their seven losses have come by 8 points or less with four of those coming by 5 points or less. They’ve been right there in nearly every game and we think coming off the bye week they get in the win column on Sunday. This line has now been adjusted too far in our opinion as San Diego is a home dog for the first time this year while KC is a road favorite for the first time. Take the points. |
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11-22-15 | Broncos -1 v. Bears | Top | 17-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Denver -1 over Chicago, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Osweiler being inserted as the starting QB is actually a positive development in our opinion. He can’t be any worse than Manning was. Peyton’s QBR is 31st in the NFL and he has thrown 17 picks compared to just 9 TD’s. We think Osweiler will give the Broncos a better chance on offense. Defensively Denver is fantastic. They are #1 in the NFL in YPG allowed and YPP allowed. Not only that, they are coming off a “poor” performance allowing the Chiefs to score 29 points but still held KC to just barely over 300 total yards. Expect a solid performance here from the Denver defense. Chicago is now the flavor of the week after beating San Diego & St Louis on back to back weekends. Chicago’s 4 wins have come against KC, Oakland, St. Louis, and San Diego, all teams that currently have losing records. Three of those four wins came by 1, 2, and 3 points. They really shouldn’t be laying points to the 7-2 Broncos in our opinion. Denver has HUGE edges defensively allowing 4.3 YPP (to 5.8 for Chicago), 3.5 YPR (to 4.6 for Bears), and 5.3 yards per pass attempt (to 6.7 for Chicago). Bears are just 5-17 ATS their last 22 home games and we’ll gladly take the points here. |
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11-19-15 | Titans v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
PLAY ON: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS In breaking down this game we find the Jags rate slightly higher in terms of offensive efficiency rankings while the Titans are barely better than the Jaguars in defensive efficiency statistics. But Jacksonville has been able to score points while Tennessee hasn't. The Titans have scored 13 or less points in 5 of their last six games and the one game they did top 13-points it was against the Saints who don't stop anyone (defensive coach Ryan fired this week). Last week the Titans managed just 242 total yards of offense and 11 first downs against the Panthers. Jacksonville has put up 20+ points in 5 straight games with QB Bortles leading the way. Bortles has 19 TD passes this year which is the 7th best number in the league. The Jags are 5-2 ATS their last 7 games against a team with a sub .500 record while the Titans have just 2 spread wins in their last 16 games versus losing teams. Jacksonville won't need to score many points to cover this spread as the Titans offense is really struggling to put up points. Lay it. |
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11-16-15 | Texans v. Bengals OVER 46 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -108 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 46 Points - Houston @ Cincinnati, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Houston is the fastest paced offense in the NFL, even faster than Philly. They average 74 plays per game (Eagles are 2nd at 70) and run a play every 23 seconds. That also plays right into the Bengal’s offense as Cincy will run more plays as well. Getting to run more plays means more points for Cincy. The Bengals already average 28 PPG and they are the 2nd most efficient offense in the NFL. Playing in a fast paced game vs a lower tier defense gives us a reason to project that the Bengals will top their season average tonight, probably getting into the 30’s. Houston’s offense isn’t great but they do run a lot of plays (as we stated) and they have scored 20 or more points in 5 straight games. The weather looks perfect tonight and If Houston can get to 20 again tonight, we think they will, this game should go OVER this posted total of 46. |
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11-15-15 | Jaguars v. Ravens OVER 47.5 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -101 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
We like OVER in the Jacksonville @ Baltimore game (1PM ET kickoff). We expect plenty of points in this one as the Jags games are averaging just under 56 total points scored their last three games while Baltimore is averaging 48PPG in that same time frame. Jacksonville games have ended with 51 or more total points scored in 5 of their last six and include 3 games with 65+ points being scored. Neither team gets stops on 3rd downs (Jags 29th, Ravens 32nd) which translates to more scoring opportunities for opponents. Both teams also like to throw the football and we all know that more passing means more clock stops and higher scoring games. Baltimore is 7th in the NFL in passing attempts per game while Jacksonville is 9th and both throw it on more that 63% of their offensive possessions. The 'over' is 5-2 in Baltimores last 7 games overall and Jacksonville 'over' bettors have been rewarded with four straight cashes. Expect a shootout here with 50+ points. |
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11-12-15 | Bills v. Jets OVER 42 | Top | 22-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* OVER 42 points - Buffalo @ NY Jets, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET Both of these teams have been quite efficient on offense with Buffalo ranking 8th and the Jets 11th according to Football Outsiders. The Bills average 26 PPG on the year and have scored 30+ in half their games this season (4). The Jets average 25 PPG and have been held under 20 only one time this year. Buffalo came into the season with the experts raving about their defense. The fact is they’ve been a “middle of the pack” defense all season long allowing 353 YPG which is 16th in the NFL. The Jets stop unit has really fallen off their early pace which had them as the 2nd best defense in the NFL behind Denver. In their last 4 games New York has allowed 20, 30, 34, and 23 points. Tyrod Taylor came back from injury for Buffalo last week and led the Bills to 33 points vs Miami. He also has most of his weapons back on offense as RB LeSean McCoy and WR Sammy Watkins have returned. The Jets QB Fitzpatrick was injured vs Oakland two weeks ago but he was back under center last week throwing for 272 yards and leading the Jets to 28 points. Over the last 20 meetings, these two AFC East rivals have cashed the OVER 70% of the time (14 overs, 6 unders). Eight of the last 10 meetings between these two have reached at least 41 points and this number is set a just 42 or 42.5. Take the OVER. |
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11-09-15 | Bears +5 v. Chargers | Top | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Chicago +5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:30 PM ET Not sure San Diego should be this type of favorite tonight. Our line on this was -3 so the value is with Chicago crossing over key numbers 3 & 4. The Chargers are 2-6 on the year and their two wins have come against Detroit by 5 & Cleveland by 3, both at home. Close games against bad teams. The Bolts will be without QB Rivers top target tonight as WR Keenan Allen is out. SD’s offense is solid but they are held back by their lack of a running game. Rookie Melvin Gordon hasn’t been given many opportunities carrying the ball only 12 or 13 times per game usually. They average only 86 YPG rushing and their offensive line is in shambles. Rivers is pretty much what they have offensively. Chicago’s pass defense ranks 3rd in the NFL allowing only 214 YPG so they match up pretty well. The Chargers defense stinks. They allow 6.3 YPP on the year which is only ahead of New Orleans. A team with a defense that bad can’t be trusted laying points above those key numbers tonight. Chicago is playing better going 2-2 their last 4 games with both losses coming by just a field goal. We look for this game to be a field goal type game either way giving us value at +4.5 or +5. Take Chicago. |
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11-08-15 | Falcons v. 49ers UNDER 44 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 44 - San Francisco @ New Orleans, Sunday at 4:05 PM ET San Francisco has not scored an offensive TD in their last 2 games to to jumpstart their offense they will start Blaine Gabbert at QB. Well the Niners are last in the NFL averaging 13 PPG and they have been held to 7 points or less 5 times this season. Don’t look for much to change with the QB switch. Gabbert in his 27 career starts has led his offense to less than 20 points 20 times. He hasn’t played in a real NFL game since October of last year. That was the only game he played in last season. Add the fact that SF is down to their 4th string RB and we don’t see many points coming for the host. The Niner defense has been solid at home allowing just 15 PPG including holding Green Bay to 17. They have played 4 home games and nobody has topped 20 on this defense here in San Fran. After a hot start to the season offensively, the Falcons have really struggled as of late scoring 21, 10, and 20 points their last 3. There is a good chance neither team reaches 20 in this one. Take the UNDER. |
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11-08-15 | Raiders v. Steelers -4.5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh -4.5 over Oakland, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Many are now firmly on the Raider bandwagon and while we definitely think they are improved, this is a bad spot for them. The Raiders have won 2 straight but let’s look at each situation. Two weeks ago they beat a reeling San Diego team (2-6 record) with a banged up offensive line and the Chargers were off a long trip to Green Bay the week before. Last week they played host to the NY Jets and the flyboys QB Fitzpatrick only played a few plays before leaving with a thumb injury. That left Geno Smith at the helm in the 34-20 Jet loss. While Oakland may have won that game anyway, they have caught some breaks the last few weeks. The fact it they have been outgained in every game but 2 this year and they are -20 YPG on the season. Now they travel to Pittsburgh where they are just 1-15 their last 16 trips to the eastern time zone. The Steelers are off a loss 16-10 to the Bengals so this is a big game for them as they sit at 4-4. QB Roethlisberger is back for the 2nd straight game so he should be comfortable this week. The Steelers did lose RB Bell, however his replacement Williams has had a very solid season. Pittsburgh was a Playoff/Super Bowl type team entering the season but sit at .500 due to the absence of Roethlisberger. Oakland has come out of nowhere and not might even be a bit over valued. We like Pittsburgh with this low number at home. |
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11-08-15 | Titans +8 v. Saints | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Tennessee +8 over New Orleans, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET Not sure the Saints with their terrible defense should be favored by this number over anyone. The Saints rank 31st in YPG allowed and dead last (32nd) in YPP allowed. Now what makes the big points intriguing here is that the underdog has a very good defense. Tennessee ranks 5th in the NFL in total defense allowing just 316 YPG. The Titans are allowing a full TD less per game than New Orleans (22 PPG to 29 PPG). The Titans should get a jump start with a new coach as well. We like looking at “interim” coaches after a mid-season coach firing as teams tend to rally. Whisenhunt was fired after last week’s loss @ Houston and his replacement, Mularkey has head coaching experience with Buffalo. This is a very similar situation to Miami a few weeks ago when Philbin was fired and the team played a great few games after that. Tennessee QB Mariota is back and the Titans catch the Saints off a huge OT win over NY Giants (52-49). We like Tennessee to give New Orleans a run on Sunday. Take the points. |
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11-01-15 | Packers -2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 10-29 | Loss | -119 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Green Bay -2.5 over Denver, Sunday at 8:30 PM ET We’ve been looking for a good spot to fade this over rated Denver team and this is it. The Broncs, despite being 6-0, are just 8th in the NFL in point differential at +37. They’ve had a number of close games that could have gone either way. In fact, they’ve won only 1 game this year by more than a TD. We faded this team a few weeks ago @ Oakland (+4.5) but the Broncos got a little “lucky” again and won 16-10 without scoring an offensive TD. Speaking of offensive TD’s, Denver has scored just 9 of them this year in 6 games. Football outsiders has Denver ranked as THE LEAST efficient offense in the NFL. They are currently last in the NFL averaging only 5 YPP and Peyton Manning currently has the lowest QBR of any starting quarterback. That won’t get any better on Sunday as they face one of the better defenses in the NFL. Green Bay actually leads the NFL allowing only 16.8 PPG and they are rated the 7th most efficient defense. That tells us one thing. Denver’s defense is going to have to play the game of their life to win this one. Green Bay’s offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm is light years better than Denver’s offense. The Bronco defense has been really good this year but let’s look at the QB’s they’ve faces this year – Flacco, Alex Smith, Stafford, Bridgewater, Carr, and McCown. Hardly any Aaron Rodgers/Tom Brady types in there. These defenses are pretty close but we give Denver a slight edge. Offensively Green Bay has a huge edge. The Packers are 9-0 ATS off a bye under McCarthy and with this small number, we like Green Bay on Sunday night. |
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11-01-15 | Chargers v. Ravens OVER 50.5 | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 50.5 points - San Diego @ Baltimore, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH This one has high scoring written all over it. We have two fast paced offenses that run a lot of plays. San Diego ranks 2nd in the NFL at offensive plays run per game at 71 and Baltimore is 7th at 67. Neither run the ball a lot as just 33% of the Charger plays are on the ground while Baltimore comes in at just 36% running plays. San Diego is 2nd in the NFL in pass attempts per game at 45 and Baltimore is 6th at 41. There won’t be a lot of clock grinding running plays in this game. Defensively neither are good. Baltimore ranks 23rd in the NFL in defensive efficiency and San Diego is 30th. Neither defense stacks up well defending the pass as San Diego ranks as the 23rd most efficient pass defense and Baltimore the 26th. The weather looks fine (potential light rain but no winds) and we look for both teams to approach or eclipse 30 here. Take the OVER. |
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11-01-15 | Lions v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 10-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Kansas City -3.5 over Detroit, Sunday at 9:30 AM ET - London England KC is better than their 2-5 record in our opinion. Their losses have come at the hands of Denver, Green Bay, Cincinnati (all undefeated) Minnesota, and Chicago. Their lone “bad” loss in that group was vs Chicago, a game the Chiefs led throughout but allowed the Bears to kick a buzzer beating FG. We think the get a “boost” heading to London this week off a home win over Pittsburgh last Sunday. Detroit is 1-6 and unlike KC, they look like a 1-6 team. They are 31st in the NFL in point differential at -61. Only SF is worse. They are ranked 25th in the NFL in offensive efficiency and 28th in defensive efficiency. The Lions are 29th in scoring offense (19 PPG), dead last in rushing offense, and last in opposing QBR defense. This team just isn’t good. Now they are coming off a division home loss to Minnesota (19-28) and now win only 1 win we don’t look for them to put up much of an effort traveling to London. At this small number, we like KC on Sunday. |
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10-29-15 | Dolphins v. Patriots -8 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 48 h 25 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* New England -8 over Miami, Thursday at 8:30 PM ET - ASA's NFL THURSDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH Miami is hot we get it. We’ve been on them the last two weeks and cashed in nicely with both. However, let’s not forget those two games were against Tennessee & Houston who have a combined 3-10 record. Sure Miami’s defense has looked much better the last two weeks but they’ve faced two of the least efficient offenses in the NFL (Houston 25th & Tennessee 27th). Two teams with questions at QB with the Titans starting a rookie (Mariota) and the Texans starting the equivalent of a back up (Hoyer). Now they face the most efficient offense in the NFL with Tom Brady at the helm. Brady and the Pats will be ready for this division battle and they get to show their worth as the “only game in town” on National TV. Brady loves the spotlight and he will perform well. The Pats are a remarkable 27-7-1 ATS at home when favored by less than 10 points. Against Miami, 9 of New England’s last 10 wins here in Foxboro have come by double digits. The Patriots are also 18-7 ATS their last 25 in this series. They are simply a dominating home team winning 54 of their last 61 games here. 12 of their last 14 wins here have come by at least a TD. We have one of the top NFL coaches of all time Bill Belichick takes on interim Dan Campbell and while the “rah-rah” approach worked for the Fins against poor competition, it won’t here. Lay the number with New England on Thursday. |
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10-26-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48.5 | Top | 18-26 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
PLAY ON 10* Over 48.5 Points - Baltimore @ Arizona, Monday at 8:30 PM ET These two teams have combined to go OVER the total in 9 of their 12 games so far this season. Since their season opener @ Denver, the Ravens have scored at least 20 points in every game. Arizona has topped 30 points in 4 of their 6 games and put up 40 or more points 3 times. The Cards are 2nd in the NFL in scoring at just under 34 PPG. They are 4th in the NFL averaging 405 YPG. They are coming off a game in which they put up just 13 points @ Pittsburgh despite rolling up almost 500 yards of offense. Obviously with those numbers a team would normally put up a much higher point total. The NFL average in that situation would be approx 30 points. Turnovers (4) killed them in that game. Expect a big offensive output tonight after that showing. Baltimore, despite their 1-5 record, has been good on offense ranking 11th in the league at 24 PPG. They are also 9th in the NFL averaging 370 YPG. Don’t be surprised if the Baltimore defense, who’s already struggling (25th in total defense), is a bit spent here making their 4th trip to the west already this year (@ Denver, @ Oakland, & @ SF already). Arizona’s defense has been pretty good but we expect Baltimore to throw it a lot (6th in passes attempted in the NFL) and score plenty. This one goes OVER the number. |
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10-25-15 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Under 45.5 Points - Philadelphia vs Carolina, Sunday at 8:25 PM ET - ASA's SUNDAY NIGHT TOTAL OF THE MONTH Here we have two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off on Sunday night. Both are in the top 8 in PPG allowed and both are in the top 5 in defensive efficiency. Carolina is a conservative type offense with no “difference making” receivers. They rank near the bottom of the NFL (28th) in both YPG (334) and YPP (5.0). The Eagles rank 20th in YPG offensively and while many think they “turned the corner” the last few weeks scoring 39 vs New Orleans and 27 vs NYG, we’re not buying it. First of all the Saints have THE WORST defense in the NFL so let’s discount that number. The Giants rank 28th in total defense so the same story with that game. Now the Eagles face one of the best defenses in the NFL with a struggling QB (Bradford has been bad). The Panthers scored 27 last week in Seattle but had just 14 with only 4:00 minutes remaining for a late rally. With these two top notch defenses, this number is set too high. We like the UNDER on Sunday night. |
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10-25-15 | Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins -4 | Top | 26-44 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Miami -4 over Houston, Sunday a 1:00 PM ET - ASA's AFC GAME OF THE YEAR We jumped on the Fins last week banking on them being “revitalized” with the coaching change and we were correct. They dominated the Titans 38-10 outgaining Tennessee by 135 yards and by a full 2 YPP. QB Tannehill looked better than he has all season completing 22 of 29 for 266 yards. The defense looked light years better with 6 sacks vs Tennessee after having just 1 in their first 4 games. The Fins were a 8-8 team last year and played very well in the pre-season when their starters were in the game. Everything we’ve heard is the players love interim coach Campbell so we expect the good play and emotion to continue this week. After losing 4 of their first 5 games, Houston picked up a win last week @ Jacksonville. The final was a bit deceiving though as the Texans were actually outgained by the Jags but benefitted from a pick 6 and 3 Jax turnovers (0 for Houston). Houston is just 6-16 SU their last 22 road games and this is their 3rd time away from home the last 4 weeks. At this small number and re-energized team, we like Miami. |
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10-19-15 | NY Giants +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
PLAY ON: NY GIANTS - We're not jumping on the Eagles bandwagon because of their win last week against the 2-4 Saints, who oh-by-the-way have the worst defense in the NFL. This week the Eagles face a far superior defensive team so we're predicting we'll see an Eagles offense that more resembles the unit we saw the first few weeks of the season over the one we saw against New Orleans. Prior to their game against the Saints the Eagles offense was averaging just 294 yards per game which was 30th in the NFL. We can also make a point that the 3-2 Giants could be 5-0 right now. In fact, there's a legitimate argument to be made that the Giants have quietly been one of the best teams in football this season. They're 7th in points per game, 7th in offensive efficiency, 8th in yards per play, 2nd in run defense allowing just 80.6 yards per game, 2nd in yards allowed per rush and 8th turnover differential. The Eagles 26th ranked pass defense will be exploited here by the Giants passing offense that is 8th in NFL in yards per game. Running back DeMarco Murray has been a bust for the Eagles averaging just 2.7 yards per carry and we don't see Philly running the ball here against a Giants D that is allowing a league-best 3.5 yards per carry. Teams that allow 90 or less rushing yards per game and an underdog have been very good ATS this season and the road team has covered 6 of the last 9 meetings in this series. We feel the better team is getting points here and will play on New York. |
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10-18-15 | Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* San Francisco +2 over Baltimore, Sunday at 4:25 PM ET - ASA's NFL HOME DOG OF THE MONTH Both teams come into this game with 1-4 records but we give SF the edge at home. The Niners had a few “ugly” losses @ Pitt (with Roelisberger healthy) and @ Arizona, two of the better teams in the league. At home they’ve played well beating Minnesota handily and giving Green Bay a decent game holding the vaunted Packer offense to just 17 points and 362 total yards. Last week they had a good NYG team beat on the road until Eli Manning threw a TD 20 seconds remaining in the game. At home they’ve only allowed 20 points in 2 games this season. We like Baltimore coming into the season but they are obviously vastly over rated. They have yet to cover the spread and they have already lost to Oakland and Cleveland. Last week’s demoralizing home loss could take the wind out of their sails here. That was a must win game against a bad team and they couldn’t get it done at home. Now the Ravens travel to the west coast for the 3rd time already this season! Take the points and we’ll call for the Niners to win outright. |
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10-18-15 | Houston Texans v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 43 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Over 43 points - Houston @ Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 PM ET -ASA's AFC SOUTH TOTAL OF THE YEAR These are two of the faster paced offensive teams in the NFL so expect a lot of plays to be run in this one. Houston is actually the fastest paced team in the NFL while the Jags are 6th. The Texans actually run an average of 77 plays per game which is a full 7 plays more than the team that ranks 2nd in that category (Atlanta). They are both in the top 10 in passing play percentage and Houston leads the NFL with 48 pass attempts per game. On top of that, these teams are not very good defensively with Houston ranking 26th in the NFL in defensive efficiency and Jacksonville 24th. These are also two of the worst scoring defenses in the NFL with the Jags allowing 29 PPG and Houston giving up 27 PPG. The Texans will be going with Hoyer at QB here which gives them a much better chance offensively in our opinion. Jags QB Bortles was questionable earlier in the week but he looks like a full go here. JJ Watt also came down with an illness on Saturday and may not play in this one. This number is too low and we like the OVER. |
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10-12-15 | Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
ASA PLAY ON 10* Pittsburgh +4.5 over San Diego, Monday at 8:25 PM ET We like the situation here with Pittsburgh and a strong rushing attack, off a loss, playing a weak rush defense and off a win. The Steelers and QB Michael Vick benefit from a couple extra days of prep time for this one after losing last Thursday night to the Ravens when the couldn't hold on to a 13-point lead in the 4th. Remember, Vick joined this Steelers late so the extra reps were critical this week with the offense. But for Pittsburgh to win they'll run the football (10th at 4.3 yards per carry) with Bell and Williams against a Charger rush defense that is one of the worst in the NFL. San Diego gives up 126 rush yards per game which is 28th in the NFL and 4.9 yards per carry which is 30th. We're not impressed with San Diego's 2-2 record as they beat two bad teams in the Lions and Browns, both at home by 5 and 3-points respectively. The Chargers are banged up along the offensive line and have really struggled running the football this season. They've had success throwing it but you can bet the Steelers will have a blitz heavy package in place tonight to take advantage of the Chargers weak O-line. Pittsburgh has covered 6 of their last seven when coming off a loss. They are also 4-0 their last four road games. The Chargers are just 1-6 ATS their last seven at home. 1-6 ATS when coming off a win. Pittsburgh is the play here. |