Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings UNDER 47 | 24-29 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Under 47 |
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01-13-18 | Titans v. Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
Pats at home in the divisional round is usually a no-brainer: since their last loss vs the Jets in 2011, they went 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in that round. But this game is interesting because we don’t know which offense is gonna show up from Tennessee, Mularkey's or Mariota's. There were rumours that Mariota started calling the plays by his own since the 2nd quarter at Kansas City. The No-huddle up-tempo offense from shotgun is perfectly suited for Mariota, but Mularkey desperately wants to rely on his ground-and-pound approach. He wants to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down with DeMarco Murray and let Mariota make a precise pass on 3rd down from a tight formation. It’s not a surprise that Mariota has four game-winning drives this season because on game-winning drives he is put into an up-tempo offense from shotgun and can dictate the offense by himself. He is a very good pocket passer and showed that at Kansas City in “his” offense. I also believe that Derrick Henry is a better and more efficient runner than DeMarco Murray. The Mariota-offense is definitely capable of putting up points at New England, the Mularkey offense will be out coached from start to finish. New England has a highly efficient defense by yards per point – they somehow avoid being scored on. The Patriots’ front seven isn’t great and they are lacking speed. I think the Titans’ offensive line has a very solid matchup and a few Mariota runs could absolutely take care for some damage and first downs.The Chiefs offense showed a great gameplan in the first half against the Titans as they tried to avoid that good run defense (4th in YPC, 7th in DVOA) and moved the ball through the air. KC receivers had a few costly drops, otherwise they would have scored a TD more. The Patriots are going to do the same: pass the ball, avoid the opponent’s strength. They will pick their matchups and the zone blitz scheme by Dick LeBeau is generally something Tom Brady highly prefers to play against. I don’t think the Pats will have any troubles moving the ball through the air because there isn’t anything the Titans can throw at Brady IMO. If the Titans play Mariota-ball, they can be competitive in that game, but if they wake up too late, it could be over too soon. Patriots also don’t want to be the Chiefs all over again and they know that it’s hard to run the clock down vs the Titans so I expect them to look to score early and often. I think this game could end up in the 50's, because the Pats are capable to score 30+ and the Titans have a solid matchup as soon as they play Mariota ball and they should get garbage time opportunities in no-huddle mode if they lose in the fourth quarter. Over 47 |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 71 h 30 m | Show |
The Falcons defense has been the key as they played the run pretty aggressively and played tight against those Rams WR's. A couple of special teams turnovers helped for field position. I am expecting a close game at Philly in the divisional round. The Eagles obviously aren’t the same without Carson Wentz. Wentz is able to avoid 2-3 sacks/throwaways per game because of his crazy ability of scrambling away from pressure. I don’t think that offense is lost, but Foles is a downgrade from Wentz. With the way the Falcons are playing on defense right now, it’s tough for me to see the Eagles moving the ball efficiently. They must try to take pressure off Foles. They have to try to not win the game with him, but the rest has to work to let Foles deal with the last 20%. I trust Doug Pederson to put together a competitive offensive gameplan, but with Nick Foles, he will be somehow limited. On offense, Atlanta will have a big advantage against the Eagles secondary because their cornerbacks are the weak spot and Julio Jones should feast on them. Eagles have a stout defense with a great defensive line and they rank 7th in pass DVOA / 3rd in run DVOA, so we shouldn’t expect the Falcons to move the ball easily on the ground to grind it out like at Los Angeles. All season, the Falcons had their issues in key situations like red zone, as they only convert 50% of their trips into touchdowns for rank 23rd. I think both teams will struggle to score many points. If the Eagles play tough on defense, get the home crowd going and take pressure off of Foles by getting their running game going, they will be in a very good position to succeed, however the value lies on the total. Under 41.5 |
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01-08-18 | Nuggets v. Warriors OVER 226 | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 2 h 2 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 226 |
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01-03-18 | Rockets v. Magic UNDER 218.5 | 116-98 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
Subscriber Only Pick Under 218.5 |
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12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 217 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
*Subscriber only pick* |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 49 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 3 h 48 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 49 |
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12-17-17 | Jets v. Saints UNDER 47 | Top | 19-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 11 m | Show |
*Top Total of the Week* The Jets are probably the worst road team in 2017. They are 1-5 SU away from home, getting outscored 14.5 – 24.8. Their lone win was at Cleveland in a game the Browns out gained them by around 200 yards and committed three turnovers inside the 5. Last week at Denver they were shut 0-23. And now with Josh McCown landing on the IR, the Jets will start Bryce Petty at QB this week – let me tell you this as a Jets fan: he is awful. Small sample size, but over 142 career passes he has a completion percentage of 54%, 3 TD, 7 INT and 5.8 YPA. The Jets aren’t going to move the ball at New Orleans, because the Saints won’t respect the pass and can stack the box heavily with Lattimore locking down Anderson or Kearse. The Saints’ offensive philosophy is to get a lead and sit on it by running down the clock and rest the arm of Drew Brees. As they are already preparing for the Falcons game next week which seems to be their personal Super Bowl, they won’t be interested in running up the score against the Jets. They will jump a lead and hand it off to Kamara/Ingram in the second half. Sustain drives as much as possible, keep a slow pace to keep offense and defense as fresh as possible. If you ask Sean Payton, he would sign a 10-7 win without injuries right now. I am seeing this game being played out similar to the Bucs/Saints game when the Bucs weren’t able to score and the Saints just took shots when given opportunities. Under 47 |
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12-14-17 | Knicks v. Nets UNDER 213 | Top | 111-104 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Neither team has a point guard which pushes the pace and with a couple key injuries on both sides, I expect this to be a half-court offensive fair. Nets PG Spencer Dinwiddie is a classic set up the offense or high pick and roll/pop type player. Note that Brooklyn is missing faced paced Lin and Russel. On the other side of the ball, Jarrett Jack may be the slowest paced PG in the league. He reminds me a lot of Sam Cassell where by he hurts you at certain spots on the floor, but never in transition. The other positive surrounding this under play is Hardaway Jr. still out. He's shown the ability to light it up beyond 3 and push the pace when needed. When these two teams met earlier this year the total was set at 222.5 and the game finished 29.5 points below that mark at 193. Yes the Lakers went over the number on Tuesday in New York, but that game went into OT and Lonzo was the one pushing the pace the entire way. Brooklyn meanwhile as seen the number go under the total in five straight games. Under 213 |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
At the beginning of the year the Super Bowl contending New England Patriots were said to be in big trouble due to their horrible defense, ranking near last in every category. As usual, Bill Belichick and company figured it out and have held opponents to 17 or less points in their last 8 games, winning all 8. On Monday night they visit the Miami Dolphins who rank near last in every offensive output category. They are 29th in Total Yards per game, 29th in Rushing Yards, and 27th in Points Scored. However on Defense they can hold their own, 16th in Total Yards allowed including 14th in Passing Yards allowed. With Gronk being out for the Patriots, I expect the Dolphins to be able to key in on other important matchups such as WR Hogan & Cooks and their trio of running backs. Being a road division game, I don't expect the Patriots to take a ton of chances, rather I see them keying on ball control and the clock management to grind out a win - largely with a rushing attack. Where as with the Dolphins, I expect to play a motivated game on Defense (especially with Gronk out) and Cutler to struggle in the air as usual. Under 48 |
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12-10-17 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 48.5 | 15-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Pick Only* Over 48.5 |
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 45 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 1 h 4 m | Show | |
*Subscriber Only Pick* Over 45 |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys UNDER 48 | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 69 h 16 m | Show |
While the Chargers come off a 50-pt outing and the Cowboys got blown out by their divisional rival, the perception favours the Chargers and I agree with it. Zeke and Tyron Smith are the two most important offensive players along with Dak Prescott. Sean Lee is the most important defensive player. Missing those three would probably kill most teams in the league outside of Boston. I think Prescott still played as good as he possibly could, but the offense was simply over-matched by a good Eagles defense. We have two interesting coaching angles going for this game. Jason Garrett is the worst short-rest coach in the league at 2-14 ATS, while Anthony Lynn is a rookie head coach on a short week who comes off a big emotional win against his former team who didn’t want to have him as their head coach. While I cannot make many cases for the Cowboys as a side, I am making one for the total. The latter is simply too high. I expected it to be in the 44-45 range. I am struggling to see any of these teams scoring significantly north of 20. I expect the Chargers to come out a little bit flat after that huge win and Lynn not being capable of putting together a good offensive gameplan on a short week. Before playing against one of the current-worst defenses with a lot of short fields, they averaged 17.9 offensive PPG. DeMarcus Lawrence will be all over anyone who lines up at RT this week, forcing some throw aways by Rivers. I also believe that both teams are trying to attack the opposing defense on the ground which is gonna eat the clock. I think the Chargers’ ceiling in this game is in the low 20s. On the flip side, this Los Angeles defense is really good. Denzel Perryman being back helps that defense, but they are still vulnerable on the ground and that’s how the Cowboys are going to attack them, because their passing attack will be lost against this defense. In Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the Chargers are in “charge” of the Los Angeles “Nippers” which will be all over La’el Collins and Byron Bell in pass protection. The pass offense won’t work and I think their ceiling is in the high 10s, around 17 to 20. 23-17, 20-16 likely scores. I am seeing a low scoring affair and that’s why I'm playing on the Under. |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 37.5 | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
From a numbers standpoint, Browns were the right side last week, but they beat themselves again. 6 red zone trips and they managed to lose by 14 – wow. That coaching staff seems to be inept, that’s why I stop playing them even though I lean them again this week. 7.5 points are too many in a good matchup. I played the Under, as I believe it’s a much better option this week. First of all, the weather forecast says it’s gonna be around 21 mph winds with as high as 25 mph. Games with 20+ mph of winds result in an average scoring total of 35. The weather condition that affects totals the most is wind, not rain or snow. In snow or rain, offenses aren’t forced to change their gameplan, because we pitches favor the offenses. It’s easier to change directions forwards than backwards or sidewards. Without wind, passes have the same velocity and trajectory in wet conditions as in dry conditions. Some coaches just think they need to run more in wet conditions. With wind it gets tricky and the magic number is 20mph. When you throw the ball in heavy winds, you cannot be as accurate as normal, because the force of the wind has such a high impact on the trajectory of the pass. A few inaccurate throws because of wind can kill drives. The first windy game of the year, CAR@TB, ended 17-3 and both QBs combined for 39/70 (55.7%) for 348 yds for 4.9 YPA when their season average is 61% and 62% completions and 6+ YPA. Last year’s game PIT@CLE was a wind game and ended 24-9. QBs combined for 44/77 343 yards, 4.5 YPA. With the Jaguars and Browns, we get a matchup that has a high probability of ending below 37.5 even without wind. The Jaguars have a phenomenal defense and improved against the run with the addition off Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars have a run-first offense with a bad matchup against the best run defense in the league. Take away the run and the Jaguars offense will be completely limited this Sunday. But so will be the Browns defense also, because they won’t move the ball on the Jaguars, no way. It wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see an offensive touchdown this week and the game ends somewhere around 17-12 with a defensive score. Loving the Under here. Under 37.5 |
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11-19-17 | Chiefs v. Giants UNDER 46.5 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
Subscriber pick. Under 46.5 |
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11-18-17 | Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 47.5 | Top | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
It looks like QB Richard Lagow will get the call this week to try and help the Hoosiers into bowl game contention. Lagow does not provide the mobility of Peyton Ramsey, but does have a powerful arm. Accuracy has been a bit of an issue (59%; 6 INT) but he has a really good receiving group. Indiana is ranked #12 in the Big 10 in rushing yards and #13 in yards per play and are going up against a a very capable Rutgers defense. The QB situation on the other side of the ball is rough (6 TD passes all year), but the good news is that the running game continues to work well. Their 1-2-3 RB combo has over 1300 yards and 12 TDs and should be able to do some work vs the Hoosiers (#9 Big 10 rush defense; #8 YPC allowed). Indiana will be able to shut down the passing game and are very good on 3rd downs (#15 FBS). It feels like tough sledding for Rutgers vs an underrated defense. The only teams ahead of Indiana in yards per play defense in the Big 10 are Wisconsin, Penn St, Michigan and Ohio St. Good company. Rutgers is giving max effort on defense and their offense is predicated on running the ball and limiting mistakes. Throw in the possibility of less than ideal weather (nothing horrible; but not balmy) and this feels like a decent under play. Under 47.5 |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers OVER 44 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is a matchup of two high-potential offenses with questionable defenses in a game with standard weather conditions. The Titans offense scores 24.9 PPG with Marcus Mariota as the starter which would rank 7th in the league (Matt Cassel started vs MIA). The Steelers defense ranks high by metrics and gives up only 15.2 PPG which ranks 2nd in the league. They seem to be much improved from last season, but they played an easy schedule and keep showing some big mistakes just like last week when corners blew their assignments in cover 2 and cover 3 on the long Colts touchdowns. Here are the offenses they have faced with their respective ranks in offensive scoring: Browns (29th), Vikings (6th) in their first game with Case Keenum, Bears (32nd), Ravens (27th), Jaguars (14th), Chiefs (5th), Bengals (30th), Lions (10th), Colts (24th). That’s not a tough schedule at all. Their defensive schedule ranks near last in the league in terms of strength. We can say they haven’t been tested a lot. This Titans offense is a tough challenge for this defense, especially since they give up 4.6 YPC (26th) on the 10th-toughest schedule. On an average schedule, the Steelers defense would probably give up around 17-20 PPG. The realistic ceiling for this Titans offense is 20-24 points at Pittsburgh. The production of the Steelers offense has been underwhelming, their 19.9 offensive PPG are far below expectations. With the personnel, they should be a 27ish PPG offense. But there is the same schedule-issue for the offense : they played a really tough schedule. Fortunately, they get to play one of the worse defenses in the league. The Titans recently played the Browns in a game in which they changed the QBs twice, the Ravens and Bengals, all three are bottom-five offenses in 2017. That’s why the perception is a little bit too high on them I guess. The Titans defense played an easy schedule and they rank 20th in scoring defense, giving up 22 defensive PPG. They aren’t good in stopping the run and their secondary is the weakest part. Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims can’t really match up with the Steelers – Pittsburgh should move the ball on the Titans. The ceiling for the Steelers is 24+ points in my opinion. I think if both teams run a lot without breakout runs and show red zone struggles, the score could stay below 44, but that scenario isn’t likely to me. I think the score should end atleast around 24-20 with potential for 35-24. This game should fly into the 50s. Over! Over 44 |