Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 151 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 13 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. The Saints moved to 10-2 with a Thanksgiving win in Atlanta and the NFC's current No. 1 seed (the 49ers at 10-1) have a real test at 9-2 Baltimore on Sunday (Ravens have won SEVEN in a row). Green Bay, which is tied with Minnesota atop the NFC North at 8-3, will be at the struggling 2-9 Giants on Sunday, so it's clear that this MNF contest between the 8-3 Vikings and 9-2 Seahawks (one game back of San Francisco in the NFC West, pending Sunday's outcome) at CenturyLink Field has a 'ton' of playoff seeding implications. Minnesota enters this contest off a bye, having won SIX of seven prior to getting a week off. The Seahawks are coming off a 17-9 win at Philly last Sunday (Seattle is 6-0 on the road in 2019) and have won four in a row since getting ambushed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens at home in Week 7. Will this game come down to which QB plays best? Minnesota's Kirk Cousins has upped the ante with his recent play, strengthening his league-best 114.8 passer rating by throwing for 18 touchdowns against one interception in his last seven games. Seattle's Russell Wilson trails his former Big Ten adversary in passer rating (112.1) but last Sunday he became the first QB in NFL history to begin his career with EIGHT straight winning seasons following the Seahawks' 17-9 victory in Philadelphia (Seattle's NINTH win of 2019). The oft-criticized Cousins is completing 70.6% of his passes for 2,756 yards with 21 TDs and only three INTs. He's supported by outstanding RB Dalvin Cook, who has run for 1,017 yards on 4.8 YPA with 11 TDs (Cook also has 45 catches for 455 yards). There were mid-season complaints about Minnesota NOT using its WRs enough but that seems to have settled down. Diggs has 46 catches on 19.1 YPC with five TDs and Thielen, despite missing three games, has 27 catches (14.5 YPC and six TDs). Thielen has had hamstring issues but he's listed as probable. The Minnesota defense has not gotten much 'pub' but its allowing just 18.6 PPG (6th-best). MVP 'talk' seems to have come down to Baltimore's Jackson and Seattle's Wilson. Wilson is completing 67.3 % for 2,413 yards with 24 TDs and only three INTs. He's always a threat to make plays with his feet and has regularly made the key play when Seattle's needed it most. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but while the Seahawks have not run the ball that well in 2019, they do rank 7th with 136.9 YPG. RB Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards in 2018(14 games) but with 879 yards (on 4.2 YPA and 4 TDs) through 11 games in 2019, is on pace for almost 1,300 yards. Then again, maybe not. Last week against the Eagles, Rashaad Penny was the star, rushing for a career-high 129 yards and a clinching 58-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Carson was relegated to a lesser role, getting only eight carries to Penny's 14 (we'll see). Tyler Lockett (63 catches / 13.2 YPC / 6 TDs) is Wilson's favorite target but Ole Miss rookie Metcalf owns a team-best 16.6 YPC average on 38 catches with 5 TDs. Defensively, the "Legion of Boom" days are past , as Seattle allows 23.9 PPG (21st) on 370.2 YPG (24th). That said, Seattle IS, 9-2! I noted that Seattle is 6-0 on the road, so doing the math reveals that the Seahawks are just 3-2 at home. However, Wilson has eviscerated the competition at home with 14 TD passes (only one INT in 177 attempts) plus has added two more TDs on the ground in just five games. I wondered at the top, will this game be won by the better QB? My bet says yes and that means I'm 'on' Wilson and the Seahawks. How does on ignore the following. Wilson has a history of shining in prime-time games, while Cousins is 0-7 SU on Monday night. What's more, the Vikings are 1-9-1 ATS the past 11 times they have been on the road against an opponent which owns a winning record. This marks Seattle's first home game in four weeks (two road games sandwiched around a bye week) and it means SOOO much! One last thing. Seattle sports a 28-5-1 record (.838) in prime-time regular-season games with Carroll at the helm, including 18-2 at home. Monday update: The 49ers did lose at Baltimore and a Seattle win now means the Seahawks would move into a tie atop the NFC West with San Francisco. A Seattle win also means the Seahawks, 49ers and Saints would all be 10-2, with San Francisco and New Orleans meeting in Week 14, meaning ONE would have to lose for the third time this season. GREAT opportunity here for Seattle and I expect them to get that "W!" |
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12-02-19 | Jazz v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi 76ers at 7:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The Pats were dominated at Baltimore 37-20 in a Week 9 SNF contest but that's the LONE blemish on the defending champs 2019 resume. The Pats survived a pair of "close call's' after the loss at Baltimore, winning 17-10 at Philly and last Sunday at home against the Cowboys, 13-9. That victory set an NFL mark, as the Pats have now won at least 10 games in 17consecutive seasons. New England is tied with San Francisco (both at 10-1) for the NFL's best overall record and own a slim one-game lead over the 9-2 Ravens, in a race for the AFC's No. 1 seed. Knowing that Baltimore holds the tie-breaker due to that Week 9 win, could keep New England focused all the way until Week 17. The 7-4 Houston Texans welcome the Pats to NRG Staium with a one-game lead over the Cols and Titans (both 6-5) in the AFC South. Tennessee is at Indianapolis at 1:00 on Sunday, so by the time Houston takes the field against the Pats, the Texans will know which team is 'lurking' at 7-5 and rooting for a New England win. Texans head coach Bill O'Brien worked in New England under Bill Belichick from 2007-11, before leaving to take over at Penn State and then here in the NFL with Houston. The Texans have always had a tough time against New England and are 1-8 in the series (0-4 under O'Brien), with their only win coming back on Jan. 3, 2010. Defense continues to carry New England, which scored just a combined 30 points in back-to-back victories over Philadelphia and Dallas. The playing conditions were miserable in New England last Sunday and Tom Brady completed a season-worst 45.9 percent of his passes. It didn't help that he had two rookies as WRs, although Julian Edelman had eight catches for 93 yards (he has 76 catches on the season). Brady's struggled all season, posting mediocre numbers for him (62.2% for 2,942 yards with just 15 TDs, five INTs and a QB rating of 88.5). The Pats have rarely featured a strong running game but this year's group is averaging just 91.9 YPG (23rd), with leading rusher Michel gaining a modest 600 yards on a poor 3.4 YPA. However, while the Pats rank just 18th in total offense (352.8 YPG), they are scoring 27.3 PPG (5th-best). The defense held Dallas with a TD last Sunday and is allowing a league-low 10.6 PPG on 256.4 YPG (2nd). There are times that Houston DeShaun Watson gets compared to Jackson and/or Wilson but too often, he throws in a 'clunker.' He's completing 69.0% for 2,899 yards with 20 TDs and seven INTs ( QB rating) plus has 301 yards rushing with five TDs. RB Carlos Hyde has 'saved' the running game (Lamar Smith was lost for the year at the end of the preseason schedule), as he's run for 836 yards on 4.8 YPA. Watson got WR Will Fuller back at last week (had missed more than a month with a hamstring injury) and he had seven receptions for 140 yards (has 41 catches in eight games). DeAndre Hopkins caught two TDs in Houston's 20-17 win over Indy and has 81 on the season with six TDs. However, while Houston ranks 7th in total offense (to New England's 18th), the Texans are scoring a more modest 24.1 PPG (a FG less than the Pats). Houston's D comes nowhere near matching New England's, allowing 22.6 PPG (12 points more than the Pats) to rank 17th, while allowing 367.3 YPG (over 100 YPG more) to rank 20th. Here's the bottom line. The Pats find ways to win, something the Texans have yet to master (more at the end), especially when playing New England (see above). Brady's NOT having a vintage season but he will likey get WR Phillip Dorsett back (he was cleared from the league's concussion protocol on Wednesday) and he'll be throwing against a Houston pass D allowing 66.0% completions with just five INTs (in 429 attempts against 22 TDs (opposing QB rating of 101.0). In comparison, Watson faces a New England pass D allowing 53.9% completions, while allowing just four TD passes against 20 INTs (opposing QB rating of 50.5!). The Pats have the league's best turnover ratio (plus-19), EIGHT better than any team. Getting back to Houston, the Texans are 2-9 ATS (just 18.2%ATS) when playing an opponent with a better than .500 record since the start of the 2018 season. Safe to say the Pats are a "winning team!" Good luck...Larry |
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12-01-19 | Jazz v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 110-130 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Crusher is on the Tor Raptors at 6:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Thunder v. Pelicans -2 | Top | 107-104 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NO Pelicans at 5:05 ET.
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -1 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.
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11-30-19 | Tulane v. SMU -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.
Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 71 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET. Wisconsin opened the 2019 season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll. The Badgers won their first six games by outscoring their opponents by an amazing 255-29 margin. However, Wisconsin visited Illinois on Oct 19 and as a four-TD road favorite got beat 24-23. The Badgers then lost at Ohio St 38-7 the following Saturday, leaving the team's hope of winning the Big Ten West bleak. The reason being that Minnesota, coming off a a 7-6 season, got off to a blazing start. PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 and his Golden Gophers would win their first NINE games of 2019, the school's first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in the Nov 10 AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus rose to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. However, the Badgers lost a tough one 23-19 at Iowa on Nov 17. Minnesota bounced back with a 38-22 win at Northwestern last Saturday but with Wisconsin winning THREE in a row, the Badgers come to Minneapolis 6-2, one game behind the 7-1 Gophers " I don't think you could write a better story at least from a college football world perspective," P.J. Fleck told reporters. "College Gameday, the Twin Cities and Big Ten championship on the line in the longest-standing rivalry in college football."Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-30-19 | Florida International v. Marshall -7 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.
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11-29-19 | Utah State v. St. Mary's -3 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
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11-29-19 | VCU +3 v. Purdue | Top | 56-59 | Push | 0 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on VCU at 9:30 ET. Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams have opened teh current season 6-0 and will take their No. 20 ranking in the latest AP poll into the Emerald Coast Classic (Niceville, Fl) with 3-2 Purdue. The Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll but after a 79-57 win over Green Bay, Purdue lost at home 70-66 to Texas and then 65-55 at Marquette.Home wins of 93-49 over Chicago St and 81-49 over Jacksonville St prove little. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team is guards Evans (15.2 & 3.2 APG)) and Jenkins (10.0) plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (11.5 & 10.5). Five guards get time in teh backcourt along with Evans and Jenkins, chipping in between 4.0 and 7.0 PPG. The 6-6 Vann (8.0 & 2.5) is really the only other frontcourt contributor helping Santos-Silva. "Shaka Ball” is back at VCU, even though Shaka Smart has been at Texas since the 205-16 season. Rhoades is a Shaka 'disciple' and the Rams are again employing withering, relentless pressure for 40 minutes as they did for the best of the Shaka years. VCU is among the nation’s leaders in TO margin and TOs forced (21 per game!). Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from last year's team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0). The Boilermakers have nowhere near VCU's depth. Guards Proctor (15.6-3.4-3.2) and Hunter (10.0 & 3.4) are the biggest backcourt contributors, while the 7-3 Haarms (12.0 & 6.6) and the 6-9 Wheeler (7.6 & 8.0) are team's top frontcourt players. Matt Painter-coached teams always play good D and this year is no different, as Purdue has held all five opponents to fewer than 70 points to start the season (58.0 PPG on the season to rank 16th nationally). 'Plodding' Purdue has already lost to the real Shaka Smart and Texas at Mackey Arena back on Nov 9 and I expect them to be at LEAST a step or two behind Rhoads' "Shaka 2.0" team. VCU is the better team getting points. Luv it! Good luck...Larry |
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11-29-19 | Pelicans v. Thunder -4 | Top | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the OKC Thunder at 8:05 ET.
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11-29-19 | Cincinnati v. Memphis -11.5 | Top | 24-34 | Loss | -109 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.
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11-29-19 | Michigan v. Gonzaga -2.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Atlantis Championship Showdown play is on Gonzaga at 2:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (why?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who would have to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but now finds itself in the championship game of the Battle 4 Atlantis after beating Iowa St (83-76) and No. 6 North Carolina (73-64). Waiting in the title game will be 8-0 Gonzaga, which is ranked No. 8 in the latest AP poll. You may have heard of Gonzaga and its head coach, Mark Few. When Few arrived in Spokane, the "Zags" had been to two NCAA tourneys in school history. All Few has done is go 20-for-20, entering this season on a streak of FIVE consecutive Sweet 16 appearances (reaching at least the Elite 8 in THREE of those five). Gonzaga eased past Southern Miss 94-69 on Wednesday but then needed OT to get past No. 11 Oregon 73-72 on Thanksgiving (this just in...the Ducks are an excellent team!). Michigan's style under Howard has been to push the offensive tempo. The win over North Carolina marked SIX straight in which the Wolverines scored at least 70 points, as the Wolverines are SIXTH in the nation in field-goal percentage (52.7) and 34th in scoring (82.5 PPG). PG Simpson is the team leader (12.2-4.5-9.2) but junior guard Brooks connected on 9-of-14 from the floor, including 4-of-6 from beyond the arc on Thursday to score 24 points. That raised his scoring average on the season to 13.7, second on the team behind 6-7 junior forward Isaiah Livers (16.3). 7-1 senior center Jon Teske has chipped in 12.3 PPG plus adds a team-best 8.8 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. Gonzaga lost a 'ton' off last year's team, including a pair of 6-8 forwards who both went in the first round of the NBA draft, Hachimura (19.7 & 6.5) and Clarke (16.9 & 8.6). Also moving on were guards Norvelll (14.9-4.3-3.1) and Perkins (11.0 & 6.3 APG) but the refrain at Gonzaga is, "no worries." Gonzaga is 'loaded' up front with the 6-11 Petrusev (Serbia), who leads with 17.0 PPG and 8.6 RPG. The 6-7 Kispert (14.1), the 6-10 Tillie (11.7 & 5.7 in just three games) plus 6-10 freshman Timme adds 11.1 & 5.6. A&M transfer Gilder (11.0), No. Texas transfer Woolridge (9.5-5.5-3.9) and returning guard Ayayi (9.3-6.5-3.6) are the main contributors on the perimeter. Gonzaga is averaging 87.1 PPG (7th) on 50.9% shooting (13th), while allowing 61.9 PPG (plenty good enough with its scoring output at the other end). Michigan came to Paradise Island in the Bahamas for the Battle 4 Atlantis unranked, but can leave with a championship. However, after upsetting North Carolina, I don't see back-to-back wins over top-10 teams being 'in the cards.' The Bulldogs led Oregon by 17 points in the early going and by five points with a minute left in regulation, before having to rally in overtime. Mark Few has too many options and could counter a fast Michigan team with a big lineup, a strategy the Bulldogs employed against Oregon. Few often paired the 6-foot-10 Tillie with 6-foot-11 Petrusev, utilizing the former in the high post and wing and Petrusev on the low block. Kudos to Howard's fast start but he's got a LONG way to go to match Few's coaching acumen. Good luck..Larry |
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11-28-19 | Creighton v. San Diego State -1 | Top | 52-83 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on San Diego St at 10:30 ET.
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 55 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Thanksgiving Roast is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.
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11-28-19 | Ole Miss +3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Seton Hall v. Oregon -1.5 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Oregon at 9:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Wichita State +1 v. West Virginia | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Wichita St at 8:30 ET.
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11-27-19 | Heat v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Hou Rockets at 8:05 ET.
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11-26-19 | Colorado -4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 71-67 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Bailout Blowout is on Colorado at 11:30 ET. Tad Boyle took the Colorado job in 2010-11 and won 20-plus games in FIVE of his first six seasons (three NCAA appearances). However, mediocre 19-15 and 17-15 seasons followed, before Colorado went 23-13 last year. The Buffs didn't make the Big Dance last season but all FIVE starters returned and big things were expected. The Buffs have opened 4-0 and and are currently ranked 23rd in the AP's latest poll. Colorado played an 'ugly' first half last night against Wyoming (game was tied at 15-all) but the Buffs pulled away for a 56-41 victory. Clemson opened the season with a 67-70 home loss to Va Tech but has since won FIVE in row, after erasing a 15-point deficit to force overtime and eventually edge TCU, 62-60. I really like this Colorado team, which is holding opponents to 54.5 PPG (11th) and is led by three double-digit scorers. The 6-7 Tyler Bey (14.0 & 12.0 ) is a terrific player and is joined in double figures by PG Wright (12.8-4.0-3.8) and the 6-7 Schwartz (12.5). Some inside 'muscle' comes from the 6-8 Bailey (7.8 & 7.3) and the 6-7 Siewert (6.8 & 5.5), who comes off the bench. 6-8 junior forward Aamir Simms (10.0 & 8.2) is the lone returning starter for the Tigers but led Sunday night's comeback by scoring all 13 of his points in the second half, to go with 12 rebounds. Clemson's best player is 6-6 senior forward Tevin Mack, a grad transfer from Alabama. He scored 22 points and grabbed nine rebounds in the win over TCU. He leads the team in scoring (16.2) while also shooting 44.7 percent (17-of-38) from three-point range. Sophomore guard John Newman III and freshman PG Al-Amir Dawes are tied for second in scoring (10.8) and have combined for 32 assists and 14 steals. Just how good is Clemson? The loss to Va Tech is understandable (Hokies are 6-0 and just beat Mich St) but before scoring the final 15 points of the game Sunday to send the contest to OT (and win), the Tigers' previous four wins all came at home over Coppin St, South Carolina-Upstate, Lehigh and Delaware St. I don't see Clemson "coming back" against this talented, balanced and excellent defensive team in Colorado. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-26-19 | Dayton -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 89-62 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Dayton at 8:00 ET.
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11-25-19 | Northwestern v. Bradley -3 | Top | 78-51 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Late-Breaker is on Bradley at 8:30 ET.
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | Top | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:15 ET.
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11-25-19 | Jazz v. Bucks -5.5 | Top | 118-122 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 8:05 ET.
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11-25-19 | Loyola-Chicago -1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 55-66 | Loss | -113 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Loyola-Chicago at 1:30 ET.
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.
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11-24-19 | Cowboys v. Patriots -6 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -117 | 105 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.
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11-24-19 | Mavs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 137-123 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Southwest) is on the Hou Rockets at 3:35 ET.
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11-24-19 | Broncos v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. It would hardly be a stretch to say that the 7-3 Buffalo Bills have been among the biggest surprises among AFC teams, while the 3-7 Denver Broncos have shown NO improvement from the 5-11 (2017) and 6-10 (2018) seasons that got Van Joseph fired. The Bills are in prime position to make a real run at an AFC wild card spot but they are facing a tough schedule down the stretch (more later). As for Denver, apologists say the 3-7 Broncos could be 7-3 with luck, as four of the team’s losses have been by a combined 10 points. However, as Bill Parcells once famously said, "You are who you record says you are!"
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11-23-19 | Blazers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Por Blax\zers at 8:05 ET.
Portland won 53 games last season and advanced to the Western Conference Finals. At 5-11 to open the current season, Portland is at least in the running for this season's "Most Disappointing Team." It sure hasn't helped that center Jusef Nurkic is not expected back until mid-Feb or that promising power forward Zach Collins' shoulder will keep him sidelined until March. The team's best player, Lillard (28.6-4.9-7.1), has missed the last two games with a back issue (is listed as probable here) plus center Hassan Whiteside (14.9 & 12.0) has fought nagging injuries all season and is listed as questionable for this one. The Blazers opened this six-game road trip with a win at San Antonio (everyone is beating the Spurs these days!) but then have lost at Houston, New Orleans and Milwaukee, while allowing an average of 128 points! The Blazers wrap up the trip with this game in Cleveland and then a Monday game at Chicago. The 4-11 Cavs are in a three-way tie with the Knicks and Hawks for the East's worst record and only the sad-sack 3-14 Warriors own a worse record in the entire NBA. Cleveland welcomes Portland to town on a SIX-game losing streak, after getting routed 143-101 at Dallas on Friday. Porzingis sat for Dallas but the magnificent Doncic had 30 points and 14 assists (missed a triple-double with seven rebounds), as the Cavs allowed Dallas to shoot 58% from the floor, including a blistering 20 of 37 on threes. That's some defense? It will sure help if Lillard returns to join McCollum, who is averaging 22,3-4.6-3.9. Hood has started all 14 games he has played in for the Blazers, averaging 11.4 PPG. A sign Portland may be desperate is that the team signed 'Melo, who did not play all last season. He's averaged 14.0 & 5.0 in two games but when has this guy ever been a "good influence" on a team? PF Kevin Love (17.9 & 11.8) and center Thompson (14.1 & 9.9) are solid players for the Cavs plus second-year guard Sexton (17.7) is proving he belongs in the NBA. Clarkson chips in 13.5 PPG off the bench. Neither team has shown much interest in playing much defense these days (see above). The Cavs are going nowhere this season, as Cleveland's supposed best player (leader?) is Love. The last time I checked, he was averaging ONE offensive rebound per game. The Cavs' six-game slide is no fluke, as there will be plenty of losing the rest of the way for this team. Meanwhile, the Blazers WILL get things straightened out. Even without a healthy roster, the Blazers will "take care of" the Cavs, who are playing on back-to-back nights for just the second time this season. The first time saw them lose 123-105 at the pathetic Knicks. The Blazers beat the Cavs 129-112 in Portland last season and 123-110 in Cleveland. That ounds about right to me, here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | California +3 v. Stanford | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET. California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West. Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” Good luck...Larry |
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11-23-19 | UCLA +13.5 v. USC | Top | 35-52 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | Texas +6 v. Baylor | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -113 | 72 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | SMU v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 42 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET. It's been quite a year for the American Athletic Conference in 2019, as in both the Nov 3 and Nov 10 AP polls, the league had FOUR schools represented in the top-25. Three of those schools remain in the most recent AP poll (Nov 17) entering Saturday games. Cincy checks in at No. 17, Memphis at No. 18 and SMU at No. 21 (all are 9-1). The AAC school that dropped out this past Sunday was Navy, which was manhandled 52-20 last Saturday at Notre Dame. The good news for 7-2 Navy (5-1 AAC-West) is that it has a chance to quickly bounce-back from that crushing loss, as it hosts SMU on Saturday. 9-1 SMU (5-1 AAC-West) squandered a chance to take command of the AAC West when it lost 54-48 at Memphis on Nov 2 (Memphis is 5-1 in the West, like Navy and SMU). The Mustangs survived 59-51 at home over ECU on Nov 9, keeping its chances of advancing to the AAC championship game intact and had last weekend off, giving them an extra week of prep time. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. QB Shane Buechele (Texas transfer) has thrown for 3,195 yards with 28 TDs against eight interceptions this season. WR James Proche, named a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist as the nation's top wide receiver, established season highs with 14 catches for 167 yards and two scores against the Pirates to extend his touchdown streak to nine games and eclipse 1,000 yards for the second straight year (he has 88 catches and 12 TDs on the season). While SMU's passing game gets most of the credit for the team's 45.1 PPG average (6th), RB Xavier Jones has rushed for 1,063 yards (5.4 YPA) and 18 of his school-record 20 TDs have come on the ground (note: he has scored in every game!). Of concern for SMU is its defense, which is allowing 32.7 PPG (104th). More on SMU's D in a bit. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and he led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expected a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and it has "backed me up" by going 7-2. Navy entered its game at Notre Dame last Saturday at 7-1 and ranked 21st but the Midshipmen got 'rolled' (see above). Navy was averaging a nation-best 357.9 yards rushing but was limited to 281 against Notre Dame. That included 117 by QB Malcolm Perry (his sixth straight game reaching the century mark) but Perry fumbled three times and was replaced in the third quarter. One of the biggest turnarounds for Navy this season has been a defense that was allowing 310.6 YPG on the season, before yielding nearly that many in the first half last week (Navy allowed 410 for the game). However, even after that poor effort, Navy enters this contest still No. 1 in rushing ( 349.7 YPG / 5.9 YPA) and averaging 37.9 PPG (13th). The Navy D comes in allowing a modest 21.9 PPG (34th) on 321.9 YPG (22nd). Here's the situation facing BOTH teams. There's a three-way tie for first in the AAC-West but like SMU, Navy has also lost to Memphis. The bottom line is, this is basically an elimination game for both schools, if they want to keep their West Division and conference title hopes alive. What Sonny Dykes has accomplished at SMU is impressive but how can one trust SMU on the road vs a quality team like Navy (note: Midshipmen are 5-0 SU at home this season, averaging 39.4 PPG)? Look at SMU's last five games. Except for an impressive 45-21 home blowout over Temple on Oct 19, SMU has allowed 37, 31, 54 and 51 points. Yes, SMU lost just ONE of those games but that was to Memphis, when the Mustangs allowed 514 yards and the six-point margin was aided by two 4th Q TDs (and a two-point conversion), after SMU had fallen behind by 21 points. The three wins in that stretch came 43-37 at home over Tulsa in three OTs (Tulsa ran up 500 yards). SMU allowed 510 yards at Houston in a 34-31 win and then allowed a WHOPPING 644 yards in its 59-51 win at home over ECU, as a 27-point favorite last Saturday. Let me remind all that Tulsa , Houston and ECU are each 3-7 on the season, while going a combined 2-16 in AAC games.I STRONGLY believe Navy is the superior team and will prevail here comfortably, putting the Notre Dame 'disaster' in the rear-view mirror. Good luck..Larry |
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11-23-19 | Arizona State v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on St John's at 2:30 ET.
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11-23-19 | Central Florida v. Tulane +6 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.
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11-22-19 | Temple v. USC -10 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on USC at 11:00 ET. Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has FOUR teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona, Colorado and Washington). However, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points, for the first time since 1963, USC has won its first five games by at least seven or more points. The 5-0 Trojans will try to keep that streak alive on Friday night when they host unbeaten Temple (3-0). The Owls return three starters and 10 lettermen from a 23-10 team that lost to Belmont in the First Four in the NCAA Tournament. However, longtime head coach Fran Dunphy (who led Penn and Temple to a combined 17 NCAA appearances), finally retired. Yes, Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll but comes in off a 70-65 Big-5 win over La Salle on Saturday plus also has won home games over Drexel (70-62) and Morgan State (75-57). Junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis posted his third straight double-double vs LaSalle and is averaging 18.1-11.0-4.3. Senior guard Quinton Rose (16.0) and fellow guard Alanui Moore (10.3) join Pierre-Louis in double figures.The frontcourt consists of the 6-7 Perry (7.7), the 6-7 Moorman (5.0 & 6.3) and the 6-11 Damion Moore (4.0 & 5.5). USC is coming in off a 91-84 home victory over Pepperdine on Tuesday that saw 6-9 freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu score a career-high 33 points, the most by a Trojan freshman since O.J. Mayo scored 37 in a 2008 game against Arizona State. Okongwu (18.2 & 9.4) helped lead Chino Hills High School to three state titles and is already a star in LA. However, Okongwu is just part of an impressive Trojan front line that also includes 6-11 senior Nick Rakocevic (16.4 & 9.8), who was a preseason first team All-Pac-12 pick, as well as 6-10 freshman Isaiah Mobley (9.4 & 5.0), a McDonald's All-American who had 14 points in 18 minutes off the bench against the Waves. Senior guard Mathews (11.8) is a steadying influence and along with Rakocevic, became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark earlier this season. Temple flies a long way for this contest and does not own the quickness nor the SIZE to match the Trojans. Temple already has FOUR players averaging 30-plus minutes and comes in shooting a putrid 39.2% (307th) on the young season. USC is averaging 80.8 PPG and the Trojans are 33-4 SU in their last 37 home non-conference games. Make that 34-4, with tonight's win coming "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Rockets v. Clippers -4 | Top | 119-122 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET. The 11-4 Houston Rockets will visit Staples Center tonight to take on the 10-5 LA Clippers. The two teams met back in Houston on Oct 13, with the Rockets winning 102-93, as James Harden poured in 47 points. However, unlike in that meeting in Houston, when the Clippers take the court tonight against the Rockets, BOTH Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be in the starting lineup. LA's "dynamic duo" were part of a victory in their first time together on the court Wednesday night, as the Clippers survived OT to beat the Celtics 107-104. As for the Rockets, they had an eight-game winning streak snapped in Wednesday's 105-95 loss in Denver. It was Houston's lowest scoring output of the season plus James Harden scored "just" 27 points, snapping a streak of at least 36 in EIGHT straight games. Harden only took 16 shots against Denver (in comparison, he hoisted 41 against Minnesota on Saturday), as Houston was just 12-of-38 from three-point range. That said, Harden gave Denver's defense little (no?) credit for Houston's shooting woes. "They just double-teamed every possession," Harden told reporters. "They got lucky. They got away with one. We didn't execute how we needed to." OK, if you say so James. Harden continues to post remarkable numbers (38.4-5.8-7.5) and I guess he and Westbrook (21.8-7.9-6.9) have found a way to work together, However, I'm just not sold (I had Denver on Wednesday). I noted in my Wednesday write up that center Clint Capela (13.9 & 13.7) "is one of the NBA's least appreciated big men," and he scored 12 points while pulling down 21 rebounds in the loss at Denver. Note: He's recorded 20 or more rebounds in five straight games, the best such streak since Ben Wallace of the Pistons also had five straight in March of 2003. However, I also noted on Wednesday that the Rockets are without Eric Gordon (a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career) and that the team's depth is VERY questionable. Leonard (25.8-8.6-5.7) scored 17 points but was just 7-of-20 shooting, while George (28.3-6.3-4.8 in four games) recorded 25 points and eight assists in the successful first pairing in terms of the victory column. "The fact of the matter is we are going to have growing pains, and I think the most positive thing is we understood that," George told reporters afterward. "Nobody was pointing fingers or dropping their heads in huddles. ... At no point was this team ever dysfunctional." While Leonard and George were drawing double teams, Lou Williams (22.5 & 5.7 APG) scored 27 points and Patrick Beverley (7.7-6.9-3.0) had a superb all-around game with a career-best 16 rebounds to go along with 14 points and seven assists. Leonard and George each played 37 minutes against Boston and their fitness could be tested by the fast-paced Rockets as they learn to play with one another. "It's pretty much just finding each other's spots and knowing the plays," Leonard said of potential improvement. "It's still tough. We are both kind of on a minute restriction - hard to get into a flow. But just knowing plays and each other's spots and the language on the defensive end. Repetition is what we need right now." I've NEVER been a fan of Harden or Westbrook and I expect the Clippers to "take care of business" tonight, avenging that Nov 13 loss (sans George). While Houston's depth can be rightly questioned (note: Danuel House, averaging 11.2 PPG, departed the Denver game and is unlikely to play Friday), the Clippers own an OUTSTANDING bench led by Williams (see above), Harrell (18.1 & 7.3) plus Green (8.1 & 7.0in 22 minutes). Green flies a little under the radar, as he's played in all 15 games, scoring in double digits seven times and grabbing 10-plus rebounds three times. It's Kawhi and Paul over James & Russell, with an assist from the LA bench. Good luck...Larry |
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11-22-19 | Houston v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. |
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11-21-19 | Colts v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 First (AFC South) is on the Hou Texans at 8:20 ET. Many (most?) assumed that the sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck meant that Indianapolis would have little chance of repeating the team's unexpected 10-6 record from 2018, which ended a three-year playoff drought by the Colts. However, while Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck, he's led the Colts to a 6-4 start and Indy will visit Houston for this Week 12 matchup tied with the 6-4 Texans atop the AFC South. Indianapolis rebounded from a stunning home loss to lowly Miami in Week 10 by rolling up a season-high point total in last Sunday's 33-13 win over the Jaguars. As for Houston, the Texans' D was 'carved up' by Lamar Jackson and Co. in last week's 41-7 shellacking at Baltimore, ending a two-game winning streak. Brissett did not play in Indy's 16-12 home loss to Miami and was hardly needed in Sunday's win, as the Colts ran for a season-high 264 yards (highest total since 2004!) and the defense held the Jags to just 13 points (the third time in four weeks the Colts have limited an opponent to 16 points or less). Brissett threw for just 148 yards (one TD / one INT) against the Jags but on the season is completing 64.6% with 15 TDs and just four INTs for a 97.6 QB rating. The Colts rank 4th in rushing (141.1 YPG) but the bad news is RB Marlon Mack (862 YR / 4.5 YPA) fractured his hand during the game and is out indefinitely. Yes Jonathan Williams stepped in and gained 116 on 13 carries, but he entered the contest with just ONE rushing yard on the season. Wideout T.Y. Hilton, who has torched the Texans throughout his career, is hopeful of returning after sitting out three games due to a calf strain but he's still listed as questionable. On the season, Indy's D is allowing 20.6 PPG (15th) on 325.6 YPG (11th). There are times Deshaun Watson looks the equal of Lamar Jackson (even Russell Wilson) and he threw for five TDs and zero INTs in back-to-back wins over Oakland and Jacksonville in Weeks 8 and 9. However, he put forth a dismal effort in Baltimore, absorbing a season high-tying six sacks, throwing for only 169 yards without a TD plus throwing one INT and losing one fumble. RB Carlos Hyde has been a solid addition to the backfield with 769 yards (4.9 YPA / 4 TDs) for a rushing game ranking just barely behind Indy at 140.7 YPG (5th). WR DeAndre Hopkins is second in the NFL with 75 receptions and enters the contest with at least seven catches in his last SIX games. Houston's defense is not the same without J.J. Watt and checks in allowing 23.2 PPG (19th) on 374.4 YPG (25th). The Colts beat the the Texans back in Week 7 at home, 30-23. Brissett had a season-high four TD passes while throwing for 326 yards. It marked Indy's THIRD straight win over Houston, winning a Week 14 game in Houston 24-21 and then a wild card game 21-7 (also in Houston) last season. However, with Mack out and TY Hilton still FAR less than 100% (even if he plays), I'm going side with the Texans to bounce back off last Sunday's humiliating loss at Baltimore. Watson has thrown eight TD passes and zero INTs in his last two home games and has FIVE games this season with QB ratings over 100.0 (including a perfect 158.3 rating in a Week 5 win over the Falcons). The winner of the AFC South advances to the postseason but there's hardly a guarantee that the second-place finisher will earn a wild card berth in a VERY crowed field. I'll echo the sentiments of Texans linebacker Zach Cunningham who said, "It's definitely good that we've got that quick turnaround. You really have no choice but to look on to the next game." Playing the home team on Thursday nights during the second half of the season has proven to be a MONEY-MAKING proposition, as home teams have gone 20-5-3 ATS (that's 80%) since 2016 from Week 8 until the end of the season. Good luck...Larry |
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11-21-19 | Texas -5.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 4-0 Texas entered the latest AP poll this past Monday at No. 22 (first time ranked in nearly a year) and will take that ranking to Madison Square Garden to meet 3-1 Georgetown in the 2K Empire Classic. Thursday's game marks just the third meeting between Texas and Georgetown (first since 2012) with the series tied at a game apiece. Texas won last year's NIT, which holds its Final 4 at MSG (Longhorns beat TCU in the semis and Lipscomb in the title game). As for Georgetown, "The Garden" is a VERY familiar venue, as the Hoyas have played roughly 100 games there, most coming in the Big East Tournament. Missing from last year's NIT champs are big men Osetkowski (11.1 & 7.2) and Hayes (10.0 & 5.0), who was a one-and-done (8th overall pick of the 2019 draft by Atlanta). Guard Roach was suspended THREE different times in his stay at Austin but he ended his Texas career by being named the NIT's most outstanding player. All will be missed but Texas has an experienced group of players back. Depth on the perimeter is a strength, led by PG Coleman (14.5-4.5-4.3) and Jones (13.3), who are supported by Ramey (9.0 & 5.3), Febres (8.0) and freshman Williams (5.3). Taking over up front for Osetkowski and Hayes are the 6-8 Liddell (9.3 & 5.0) and the 6-9 Sims (8.3 & 7.3). This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news is, FOUR starters are back, although the loss is a big one. Govan averaged 17.5 & 7.5 in making the all-Big East first team. 7-0 senior Yurtseven (17.0 & 12.5) is Georgetown's best player this season, joined up front by a trio of fowards who have combined to average right about 30 points and 11 rebounds per game. The Hoyas start three guards, PG Akinjo (12.3 & 4.5 APG), McClung (12.3) and Mosley (7.5 & 3.30. Georgetown's three wins have come over 'nobodies,' while its lone loss came 81-66 at home to a Penn St team that was just 14-18 last season. Shaka Smart came to Texas with great fanfare, after a terrific run at VCU (Google it). However, his Texas teams have made just two NCAAs in his first four seasons at Austin, with both teams getting bounced in the first round. Last year's NIT title was 'nice,' but Smart was not hired to win NIT championships. Smart's trademark has always been "team defense" and Texas has held all opponents to 66 points or less, allowing 55.2 PPG (18th) on 36.3% shooting (45th). Texas has won its lone 'test' of the young season, winning 70-66 at then-No. 23 Purdue. A win here and Texas will get a chance at current No. 1 Duke in Friday's tourney championship (assuming the Dookies beat Cal). I look forward to seeing how Texas fares against Duke but first, the Longhorns will have to dispatch Georgetown. My bet says that win comes convincingly! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | San Diego State -5 v. San Diego | Top | 66-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on SD State at 11:00 ET. It may come as a surprise to some that San Diego St has won at least 19 games for each of the last 14 seasons and owns the NCAA's 14th-best winning percentage (.733) in that time frame. The Aztecs entered last season having made SEVEN of the last nine NCAA tourneys and played in the postseason in 12 of the previous 13 years. However, the team's 21-13 record left them "sitting out" postseason play last year. San Diego welcomes SD St to the Jenny Craig Pavilion off a a 21-15 season that earned them an NIT bid. SD St enters 3-0 to open the current season, while San Diego is off to a 2-3 start. The Aztecs rely on a trio of guards and frontcourt players. The backcourt features Flynn (15.3 & 6.3 APG), Schakel (13.0) and Feagin (10.0), while the frontcourt consists of the 6-6 Mitchell (9.0 & 5.3), the 6-10 Mensah (8.7 & 10.3) and the 6-10 Wetzell (6.0 & 7.0). As always, the Aztecs are a strong defensive team, allowing 58.0 PPG (34th). San Diego lost its top-four scorers from last season and like SD St, relies on three key perimeter players and three more in the frontcourt. Guards Calcaterra (16.8), Hartfield (11.4 & 6.8) and Humphrey (9.0) team with the 6-10 Massalski (11.0 & 5.0), the 6-7 Jean-Marie (8.6 & 8.4) and the 6-7 Floresca (7.0 & 4.4). San Diego may be at home but it is in a tough spot here. The Toreros are averaging just 66.2 PPG (278th) on 40.2% shooting (286th). SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher was an assistant for 18 years under Steve Fisher, first at Michigan and then here at SDSU, where he was known as a "head coach in waiting." He took aver at SDSU when Fisher retired and took the Aztecs to an NCAA appearance in 2017-18 but as noted above, fell short of ANY postseason bid last year. I expect this year's team to be back in postseason play and tonight, to avenge last year 's 73-61 loss at home to local rival San Diego. Revenge works here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Texas State v. UNLV -3.5 | Top | 64-57 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on UNLV at 10:00 ET. Danny Kaspar led the Texas State Bobcats to a 24-10 record last season (his 1st at San Marcos), the school's most wins in 25 years. Kaspar had the challenge this season of replacing three starters and the Bobcats visit the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas at 3-2 (more in a little bit). UNLV was unhappy with Marvin Menzies and he was let go after three seasons. The Rebels brought in TJ Otzelberger, who in three seasons at South Dakota St, took the school two to NCAA tourneys, including winning 28 games in the 2017-18 season. However, UNLV has opened a disappointing 2-3. Texas St is led by guards Pearson (15.0 & 4.0) and Harrell (8.4 & 45.0) and its best frontcourt player is the 6-8 Small (12.2 & 8.6), a JC transfer. Six more players are getting 14-plus minutes per game , while chipping in 5.2-to-7.6 PPG. Hardy was UNLV's top returning scorer and the junior guard is leading the way averaging 19.0-3.4-3.0. Texas graduate transfer Mitrou-Long has been an excelelent backcourt partner, adding 12.6-4.6-3.2. Up front, the 6-7 Tillman (the Pac 12's 6th man of the year last season), has been allowed to play this season and is scoring 12.4 PPG with 4.4 RPG. The 6-11 Diong is averaging 7.2 PPG and a team-high 10.6 RPG. Texas St has won all three at home but the opponents were 'cup cakes' Texas Lutheran, PV A&M and Jackson St. The Bobcats have lost both road games, at Air Force and Baylor. Yes, UNLV is 2-3 but the losses have in OT vs Kansas St and on the road vs Pac 12 schools Cal (also in OT) and UCLA. The Rebels haven't beaten anyone of of note yet, winning at home against Purdue-Fort Wayne and Abilene Christian. A victory over Texas St will not be considered a "quality win" but UNLV could sure use a "confidence-builder." I say the Rebels get a "W" (and cover) in this one, as Texas St is just 5-12-1 as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. Good luck...Larry |
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11-20-19 | Rockets v. Nuggets -2 | Top | 95-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. It's the 11-3 Houston Rockets and the 9-3 Denver Nuggets meeting tonight at Pepsi Center in a matchup of two of the Western Conference's best teams.The Rockets have won EIGHT in a row led by James Harden (more in a bit), while the Nuggets open a four-game homestand looking to break through against Houston, which has won 10 of the last 11 meetings between the two teams. Harden scored 36 in Monday's 132-108 rout of the Portland Trail Blazers (Rockets' 8th straight win), while PGF Russell Westbrook contributed 28 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists for his 141st career triple-double. Harden is averaging an NBA-best 39.2 PPG (also 5.7 RPG and 7.6 APG), while Westbrook checks in at 21.6-8.4-7.1. Center Clint Capela (14.1 & 13.1) is one of the NBA's least appreciated "big men" but the Rockets are without Erc]ic Gordon, a 16.6 PPG scorer in his career. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season and have opened 9-3. Center Jokic led Denver in scoring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). However, Jokic has not quite been that good so far this season, although his line does read 16.4-8.8-6.0. Recent good news is that PG Jamal Murray (19.2-4.8-4.8) established season bests of 39 points and seven 3-pointers Sunday at Memphis, when the Nuggets had their highest point total of the season in a 131-114 road win. PF Paul Millsap (14.1 & 6.1) matched his season high of 23 points against Memphis and has reached double digits in six straight contests. Some (many?) thought it would be a problem having two ball-dominant guards on the floor at the same time in Harden and Westbrook, but through 14 games the plan has worked. Then again, the Rockets are just 7-7 ATS this season. Yes, the Rockets are a slight underdog here so a win means a cover but I believe Denver's depth will be the difference. Jokic and Murray typically carry the main offensive load but Millsap (see above), Barton (14.8 & 7.4) and Harris (10.7) are also capable of big offensive nights. Denver arguably owns the NBA's deepest bench and was one of the main reasons Denver had the NBA's best home record last season at 34-7. Tough two-game road trip for the Rockets (here and at the Clippers on Friday) and I think they will be fortunate to win either one. I won't get ahead of myself, so tonight the play is on Denver. Good luck...Larry |
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11-19-19 | Montana State v. Grand Canyon -6 | Top | 56-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Grand Canyon at 9:00 ET. Danny Sprinkle attended Montana St and back in 1996, scored 30 points in the Big Sky championship game to lead the Bobcats into the "Big Dance." The Bobcats haven't been back since. However, on April 4, 2019, Sprinkle was hired as the 23rd head men's basketball coach at Montana State. He took over at a school which has won between seven and 16 games the last five seasons. Dan Majerle had a 14-year NBA career and was the associate head coach for the Phoenix Suns from 2008–2013. On March 15, 2013, it was announced that Majerle would coach for Grand Canyon University in their its season as a Division I team. In Malerle's third season, he led the Antelopes to 27 wins and into the CIT quarterfinals, then followed with 22, 22 and 20-win seasons. Each of the last two seasons, Grand Canyon has lost in the WAC championship game, to New Mexico St (one win shy of an NCAA berth). Sprinkle has an "international cast of characters," led PG Frey (17.2-5.8-6.0) from Noway. Two London-born players are the 6-9 Belo (11.2 & 6.2) and guard Adamu (9.8 & 4.2) plus guard Paulo (9.4) hails from Toronto. The Bobcats are off to an impressive start at 4-1, which includes three wins in THREE days in Greensboro, NC playing in the Spartan Classic. Mon St beat App St 59-56, host UNC-Greensboro 67-66 and Ten Tech, 52-39. Meanwhile, Grand Canyon stumbled out of the gate with THREE straight losses, before beating Arkansas-Pine Bluff 67-54. Grand Canyon lost two key players from last year's team in the 6-10 Finke (12.1 & 5.1) and PG Milstead (10.3 & 3.6 APG) but Majerle has a solid team. Guard Johnson (13.5 & 6.8) leads the team in scoring and rebounding plus four more players average in double figures. That group includes guard Brown (12.8 & 4.2), freshman Blacksher (12.2 & 5.2) and 6-7 graduate transfer swingman Jenkins (10.2 & 3.8) plus the returning 6-10 Lever (11.5 & 2.8). I can't explain Grand Canyon's early stumbles but Montana State just finished playing three games in three days in Greensboro (Fri-Sun) and now flies to Phoenix with only ONE day between playing a FOURTH game in five days! That's asking A LOT! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs -4 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:15 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs won the AFC West with a 12-4 record in 2018 behind a MVP performance by QB Patrick Mahomes. KC then opened 2019 win FOUR straight wins, averaging 33.8 PPG with Mahomes averaging 377.5 YPG passing with 10 TDs and zero INTs. However, the Colts and Texans then 'solved' Mahomes to some extent, handing KC back-to-back losses. KC visited Denver for a Thursday game to kick off Week 7 and while the Chiefs won 30-6, Mahomes suffered a dislocated right kneecap. Moore filled in admirably for Mahomes the next two games, with KC losing a hard-fought game to Green Bay but then edged the Vikings, 26-23. Mahomes didn't miss a beat in his return from that two-game absence, completing a career-high 36 passes for 446 yards and three TDs but Kansas City lost 35-32 at Tennessee. The Chiefs' once sizable advantage in the AFC West is now gone, following losses in FOUR of their last six games. The 6-4 Chiefs look to stem the tide on Monday night when they travel to Mexico City to face the Los Angeles Chargers, tied with the 6-4 Oakland Raiders for first-place in the division. The 4-6 LA Chargers saw their two-game "mini" winning streak end in Week 10, losing 26-24 at Oakland. Philip Rivers entered Week 11 leading the league in passing yards (2,816) but was also third in interceptions (10). He had three in LA's last game against Oakland, including a "pick-6" that loomed large in that 26-24 loss. The Chargers were among the league's better teams in not committing turnovers the last two seasons but they have 16 giveaways this season and their TO ratio of minus-6 is better than only FIVE teams. More notably, FIVE of their turnovers have occurred in goal-to-go situations! Last year's game between the Chiefs and Rams was relocated to Los Angeles less than a week before the game when the field at Mexico City's Azteca Stadium was deemed unplayable because of rain and the stadium having hosted concerts less than a month before the game. Both coaches said they have received favorable updates about the turf going into the game. The Chargers have spent the week at the Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs to get acclimated to the altitude, while the Chiefs have kept their same routine. Mahomes enters this game with no health issues and KC has to be thrilled with the play of WR Tyreek Hill. He become the first player in franchise history to record at least 140 receiving yards and a touchdown in consecutive games, as he followed up his 140-yard effort in a 26-23 win over Minnesota on Nov 3 (with Moore at QB) with a career-best 11 catches for 157 yards and one TD against the Titans (Mahomes was back at QB for that one). RB Damien Williams had a season-high 24 touches resulting in 109 scrimmage yards (77 rushing, 32 receiving) against Tennessee. His backfield partner McCoy could use more work, as he's averaging 5.2 YPA but has a modest 72 carries on the season. Mahomes has a deep group of receivers, as besides Hill, there is TE Klece (56 catches), Watkins (40 catches despite missing two games) plus Hardman and Robinson. The KC defense is allowing 148.1 YPG on the ground (30th) and 23.9 PPG on the season (20th). Sure Rivers is on pace for another 4,000-yard season (maybe 4,500 yards?) but the running game has given him little support all season (86.1 YPG ranks 25th) and the Chargers come in averaging a very modest 20.7 PPG (21st). Melvin Gordon did rush for a season-high 108 yards in the loss at Oakland but he's still averaging just 3.5 YPA and I'm not even a little convinced he's back to being the player we saw from 2016-18. The D is good though, allowing 19.4 PPG (6th) on 318.3 YPG (5th). This is a HUGE game for KC, as the Chirefs have a bye in Week 12 and then in Week 13, will host the Raiders. The Raiders are at the Jets this coming Sunday, so could very well move to 7-4, meaning if KC doesn't win here, the Chiefs could be a game back of the Raiders in that Week 13 contest. Mahomes had little troiuble against LA's defense last season, passing for six TDs and zero INTs, posting QB ratings of 127.5 and 110.3. Yes, the Chargers did beat the Chiefs 29-28 in a Week 15 contest but that win eended a NINE-game losing streak for the Chargers against the Chiefs. "Series form" returns here, as KC gets the win AND cover! Good luck...Larry |
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11-18-19 | Cavs v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 105-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Knicks at 7:05 ET. Two of the East's worst teams square off tonight at MSG, as the 4-8 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the 3-10 NY Knicks. The Cavaliers come to New York having dropped three straight, after losing 114-95 to Philadelphia at home on Sunday afternoon. The Knicks were off on Sunday, after suffering a last-second 103-102 loss Saturday night to the visiting Charlotte Hornets. The Cavs' last win came over the Knicks, 108-87 in New York back on Nov 10. The Cavs took an 18-point halftime lead in that one, as Collin Sexton finished with 31 points on 10 of 16 shooting. Sexton is in his second season and is averaging 18.2 PPG, tying him with Kevin Love (18.2 & 12.1) for the team lead. Love scored just 12 points in Sunday's loss, after averaging 20.5 in his previous two games. Center Tristan Thompson (14.9 & 10.5) was just a rebound shy of his ninth double-double of the season (12 & 9) against Philly. Cleveland has a fourth double-digit scorer in guard Clarkson (14.8). New York owns its only two wins this month over improving Dallas but has yet to post back-to-back victories this season. The Knicks followed a Nov 8 win at Dallas with the above-mentioned home loss to the Cavs and then after beating Dallas again this past Thursday, lost 103-102 to visiting Charlotte on Friday. The Knicks could not hold an eight-point lead in the final six minutes, as the Hornets won on a three-pointer with 2.8 seconds remaining. “We didn’t take the game,” Knicks forward Julius Randle told the New York Post. “We let them stay around instead of us really taking the game.” Randle (15.5-9.5-3.9) leads the team in rebounds and assists, while fellow forward Morris (18.2 & 5.9) leads in scoring, with rookie RJ Barrett justifying being picked third overall in last June’s draft by averaging 15.8-5.8-3.8. The Knicks were riding high after beating the Mavs on Thursday night and then leading by as many as 15 points Saturday vs Charlotte, before 'spitting out the bit.' I doubt I'll be 'on' the Knicks very often this season but they are catching the Cavs on the second of a back-to-back and if head coach David Fizdale can't get his team to win in a spot like this, his 'seat' will go from 'hot' to 'boiling.' Cleveland is 'ripe for the taking' in this one and I'll back the Knicks. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams -6 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams won the NFC West for the second straight year in 2018 and went on to play New England in the Super Bowl. The Chicago Bears rode the NFL's best defense (in terms of points allowed) in 2018 to a 12-4 record and an NFC North title. Both teams entered 2019 with expectations that they would defend their respective division titles. However, as the Bears come to LA Memorial Coliseum to take on the Rams in Week 11, they sit at 4-5 in their division, well behind 8-2 Green Bay and 7-3 Minnesota. As for the 5-4 Rams, they are looking up at 8-1 San Francisco and 8-2 Seattle in the NFC West. There is NOTHING wrong with Chicago's defense, as the Bears are allowing 17.4 PPG (4th), which is actually slightly better than the team's NFL-leading 17.7 average in 2018. However, Chicago's QB play has generally stunk (that's a highly technical NFL insider term!) and its running game also sucks (another highly sophisticated one). Trubisky is coming off a three-TD game in last week's 20-13 win over Detroit (one which snapped a four-game losing streak) but he has just eight TD passes in his eight games (he's missed two due to injury). A closer look reveals he has not thrown a TD pass in FIVE of his eight starts in 2019, accounting for his eight TD throws in last week's game with Detroit, a two-TD effort in a Week 7 loss at New Orleans and a three-TD game in the team's MNF Week 3 win at Washington. As for the running game, the Bears are averaging 80.6 YPG (28th) on a woeful 3.5 YPA. What's more, just as rookie David Montgomery appeared to have found his stride by rolling up 235 yards and three TDs over his last three games, after totaling 231 and two TDs in his previous six, an ankle injury in practice is raising doubts about his availability for this contest. If Monty doesn't play, here's the situation. No other Chicago player has as much as 100 rushing yards on the season. Sean McVay has been labeled a "boy genius" for leading the Rams to back-to-back division crowns in his first two seasons at the helm, which included a Super Bowl appearance in just his second season. However, the Rams' once-high octane offense has gone missing since prior to last season's Super Bowl appearance, with QB Jared Goff taking large steps backward behind an offensive line that has been ravaged by injury. McVay himself realizes there's a strong argument to be made that the Bears ended the Rams' two seasons of offensive brilliance with their 15-6 victory at Soldier Field last season in Week 14. LA was 11-1 but Chicago reduced McVay's offense to a shadow of its usual self. RB Todd Gurley produced only 28 yards rushing, Goff went 20 of 44 for 180 yards, and the Rams managed only 214 yards, less than half of their season average. The current Rams' offense continues to be a shadow of its former self, averaging 25.1 PPG (10th) on 375.8 YPF (12th), after an inept performance at Pittsburgh last Sunday in which it scored only THREE of the team's 12 points. OK, so why am I on the Rams? I go back to those technical terms regarding Trubisky (he stinks) and the state of Chicago's running game (it sucks). Chicago dominated the Rams in that Week 14 contest in Chicago, benefiting from the weather conditions of a chilly, biting night last December. The weather report for Sunday is sunny and in the mid-80s and don't forget that this is a 5:20 local time start (FB conditions will be perfect). This is a make-or-break game for LA, as while it plays Arizona twice in its final six games after this one, it also faces Baltimore, Seattle, Dallas and San Francisco. A loss here and LA can basically 'cancel' the rest of the 2019 season. Expect the Rams to 'show some life' against a VERY mediocre (I'm being nice here) Chicago team. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Wizards v. Magic -6.5 | Top | 121-125 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Orl Magic at 6:05 ET. The Orlando Magic ended a six-year playoff drought last season, finishing 42-40. They returned the core of that team intact and entered the season healthy but opened 2-6. However, the Magic have won THREE of the their last four as they get set to host the Washington Wizards on Sunday.The Wizards will play the entire season with All Star PG John Wall and are not expected to compete for a playoff spot. Washington has opened just 3-7 The Wizards wrap up a three-game road trip here in Orlando, after losing 140-133 at Boston and winning 137-116 at Minnesota. Bradley Beal was expected to have a "career year" with Wall sidelined and coming off a 44-point effort in Friday's win at Minnesota, he's doing just that. He's averaging 29.7-4.6-4.9 with FIVE more Wizards averaging between 11.4 and 14. PPG. One of those players is the 6-11 Mortitz Wagner (2nd-year pro out of Michigan), who turned in a 30 & 15 effort against the T-wolves.The Wizards can score (117.3 PPG ranks 3rd) but they are also allowing 119.6 PPG, which ranks 28th in a 30-team league. Speaking about scoring, after being held to just 95.1 PPG during a 2-6 start, the Magic have averaged 109.8 PPG over their last five games, including 110.8 over the first four of a five-game homestand in which they've one THREE of four. Orlando's starting frontcourt of center Nikola Vucevic (17.82& 11.7) plus forwards Aaron Gordon (14.0 & 6.3) and Jonathan Isaac (12.1 & 6.5) is a formidable one that had started together in the team's first 11 games. Isaac (ankle) sat out Friday but returned to practice on Saturday and is probable to return. SG Fournier (16.2) is a scorer on the perimeter and is coming off a season-high 26 points in Friday's 111-109 win over the Spurs PGs Fultz (9.8 & 3.2 APG) and Augustin (9.6 & 4.5 APG) have each played in all 11, with Fultz starting seven and Augustin, five. Terrence Ross (10.3) has done a great job off the bench and after missing back-to-back games in early November (knee), has averaged 15.0 PPG in his three games back. The Magic have begun to resemble the playoff team of last year recently and that should continue here, as they can conclude their homestand with a 4-1 record by winning tonight. As good as Beal is, I'm betting "under 44 points" for him this game, as well as going "under" 30 points and 15 points for Wagner, who checks in with season averages of 12.8 & 5.9. Washington has lost SIX of eight, allowing a 131.3 PPG in its six losses. As noted, Orlando's offensive woes of its first eight games is behind them and I'm looking for a "comfortable" win here. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Patriots -3.5 v. Eagles | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. New England entered its Week 9 game at Baltimore (SNF) at 8-0, leading the league in points allowed (7.6), interceptions (19) and sacks (31),. However, its aura of defensive invincibility was punctured in a 37-20 loss, as the Pats had no answer for Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson (BTW...few teams have here in 2019). The Pats also saw Tom Brady get held to just one TD pass in 46 attempts, the FOURTH time in his last six games in which he had had one or none! New England's bye week couldn't have come at a better time but the defending champs return to play against the Philadelphia Eagles, who are tied with Dallas at 5-4 for the NFC East lead (note: as it stands, the loser of that division race will have a tough time earning a wild card berth in the NFC). The Eagles are also coming off a bye week, after getting their season back on track with wins at Buffalo and home to the Bears in Weeks 7 and 8, respectively. 2019 has not been a "vintage Brady season," as the six-0timer Super Bowl-winner owns a modest 14-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and a 93.1 QB rating. The Pats' running game offers little support, as Michel leads the team with 482 yards (just 3.3 YPA), with no other player rushing for as much as 150 yards (Pats rank 23rd in rushing at 92.9 YPG). The good news coming out of the Baltimore loss was the fact the Brady established a rapport with recent acquisition Mohamed Sanu, as the WR hauled in 10 receptions for 81 yards and a score in just his second game with the team. New England's defense enters Sunday No. 1 in both points allowed (10.9 PPG) and total D (249.3 YPG) but the loss to the Ravens sure gives pause to the possibility that the Pats' D just may not be as dominant as once thought. Philadelphia had absorbed lopsided road losses at Minnesota and Dallas before rebounding with an impressive 31-13 victory in Buffalo and a 22-14 win over Chicago. Conventional wisdom says Carson Wentz is having an "off year" but he has 11 TDs vs just two two INTs over his last seven games and has thrown a TD pass in 12 straight games, the second-longest active streak in the NFL. That said, WR Alshon Jeffery (ankle) did not practice for a second straight game (he's expected to miss) and fellow WR DeSean Jackson was placed on injured reserve. The Eagles may need to lean more on the RB tandem of Jordan Howard (525 yards on 4.4 YPA with 6 TDs) and rookie Miles Sanders (336 yards on 4.4 YPA) but Howard is listed as questionable with a stinger. Philadelphia's defense is getting healthier but its still ranks just 19th in allowing 23.7 YPG. Here's the bottom line. The Pats come into this contest as the MUCH healthier team plus are coming off a loss. FYI...The Pats are a remarkable 41-16 ATS (that's 72%) off a SU loss going back to Dec 29, 2002. If that's not enough, the Pats are returning to the field off a loss (and a bye), to face the team that beat them 41-33 in Super Bowl LII (February 2018). It's not too often that the New England has failed to come out on top in a high-profile match but one of the most noteworthy examples in recent memory was the above-mentioned Super Bowl loss. Tom Brady has acknowledged there was a lot of "mental scar tissue" from the 41-33 loss to Philadelphia. "They deserved it that year and now a couple years later we get a chance to play the organization again," Brady said. "We’ve had a lot changes. They’ve had a lot of changes. It’s totally different circumstances. Huge game for us. Big game for them. The better team is going to win." Isn't New England the better team? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry |
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11-17-19 | Falcons v. Panthers -4 | Top | 29-3 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC South) is on the Car Panthers at 1:00 ET. The Carolina Panthers nearly came back against the Packers in the snow of Green Bay last Sunday but fell fell short in a 24-16 loss. The Panthers are now 5-4 and with 8-2 Seattle and 7-3 Minnesota holding down the two NFC wild card spots, Carolina's playoff hopes are in serious jeopardy. Visiting Charlotte on Sunday will be the Atlanta Falcons, who returned from a Week 9 bye to shock New Orleans by beating the Saints 29-6 on the road. The Falcons' win snapped a Atlanta's six-game losing streak but the Falcons remain an afterthought in the 2019 season at 2-7. Ironically, Atlanta's win in New Orleans was fueled by a heretofore non-existent running game and defense.The Falcons ran for 143 yards and their defense held Brees and the Saints without a TD (just three FGs). Last week notwithstanding, Atlanta still boasts one of the most prolific passing attacks in the league, although in fairness, that has something to do with how much the Falcons have played from behind this season. Atlanta is averaging 300.9 YPG through the air (2nd-best in the NFL), as Matt Ryan is completing 69.4% with 17 TDs and nine INTs. He needs just 254 passing yards to surpass Warren Moon (49,325) and move into the top-10 in NFL history. Kyle Allen will QB the Panthers the rest of the season, with Cam Newton officially on injured reserve. The second-year QB has been solid (6-2 as a starter, including one start in 2018) and he passed for a career-high 307 yards last week. It sure doesn't hurt that he's supported by one of the NFL’s most versatile players in RB Christian McCaffrey. He has rushed for 989 yards (5.3 YPA / 11 TDs) and caught 48 passes for 396 yards with three TDs. 2nd-year WR Moore has 54 catches (he had 55 as a rookie) plus TE Olson (35 catches) and WR Samuel (34 catches with four TDs), give Allen plenty of options. Defensively, the Panthers are allowing 25.3 PPG (22nd) and have trouble stopping the run (allow 136.7 YPG, which ranks 29th). Here's the bottom line. I'm not buying Atlanta's ONE-game resurgence. Yes, the Falcons ran for 143 yards last Sunday but even with that effort, the Falcons enter this contest averaging a woeful 76.8 YPG (29th) on 3.8 YPA. Yes, the Falcons held the Saints to NINE points but they are allowing 28.8 PPG (28th). Am I supposed to believe that Atlanta all of a sudden has found a pass rush after they sacked Drew Brees SIX timea? Are you kidding me? The Falcons entered that game with just SEVEN sacks in their first eight games. One last thing, the Falcons come to Carolina having gone 5-16 ATS in road games since the beginning of the 2017 season. That's a 76% "go-against." Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | USC -2 v. Nevada | Top | 76-66 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Bailout Blowout of the Month is on USC at 11:00 ET. 3-0 USC visits Reno, Nv on Saturday night to take on 2-1 Nevada. The Trojans have won their first three games by an average of 19.3 PPG but are playing on the road for the first time, after going 2-8 away from home last season. The Wolf Pack have won 44 of their last 47 home games but after three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29, Nevada entered this season with a new head coach (more in a bit) and having lost all FIVE starters from last year's team. Speaking of head coaches, Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 and the Pac 12 has three teams currently ranked in the AP top-25 (Oregon, Arizona and Colorado). The good news is that seniors Jonah Mathews (1,009) and Nick Rakocevic (1,007) just became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark. The 6-11 Rakocevic is averaging 14.0 & 9.0 and guard Mathews chips in 11.7 PPG. The better news is that neither is the team's best player, as that's reserved for 6-9 freshman Onyeka Okongwu, who averages 17.3 points and 10.3 rebounds plus has recorded 10 blocked shots. Also "keep an eye on 6-10 freshman Mobley, who is averaging 8.7 & 6.7. Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to the success stated above. He left for Arkansas this season and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana start had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He takes over a team that lost all FIVE starters but he does have a deep and pretty good perimter group. Holdover guards Drew (20.3-7.7-6.3) and Johnson (17.3) are off two excellent starts, joined on the perimeter by La Tech transfer Harris (12.0 & 5.5) and the returning Zouzoua (11.3). Yes, Nevada has won 44 of its last 47 at home but one of those losses came this year at home to Utah, a Pac 12 team not as good as USC. The Trojans wil surely remember getting outscored 39-26 in 2nd-half of last year's 73-61 home loss to Nevada and again, that was a totally different team than this year's Nevada edition. Revenge will be 'sweet' for USC, with a bonus being Enfield getting some extra satisfaction in besting former UCLA mentor Alfird. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Raptors v. Mavs -3.5 | Top | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Dal Mavericks at 8:35 ET. The Toronto Raptors opened defense of the franchise's first-ever NBA title in October with Kawhi in LA playing for the Clippers plus starting guard Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) also in LA, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news was that head coach Nick Nurse (reigning Coach of the Year) still had a familiar cast. Pascal Siakam was the NBA's Most Improved Player and then averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry's been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without (he was a former Defensive Player of the Year). Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believed Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). Toronto has opened 8-3, despite the fact that Kyle Lowry (21.8-4.3-6.5) and Serge Ibaka (14.0 & 6.5 while averaging just 23 minutes) have each missed the last three games. Lowry ( fractured thumb) is out until at least late-November and Ibaka (sprained ankle) is listed as "out indefinitely." Toronto is playing the finale of a five-game road trip on Saturday and has won THREE of the first four stops. The Raptors bounced back from a 98-88 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday (Raptors got outscored 25-10 in the 4th quarter, one night after beating the Lakers 113-104 on the same court) with a 114-106 triumph at Portland on Wednesday. VanVleet went off for a season-high 30 points in Wednesday's win and is averaging 22.3 PPG over the last three contests (with Lowry sidelined). Siakam is averaging 27.2 & 9.2 on the season, as he's turned into an All-Star. The Dallas Mavericks were playoff 'regulars' from 2000-01 to 2015-16, making the postseason in 15 of those 16 years (won lone NBA title in 2011). However, the Mavs opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing years, with win totals of just 33, 24 and 33. However, after Luka Doncic won rookie-of-the-year honors last season (21.2-7.8-6.0), expectations were that Dallas would be a playoff team in 2019-20. Kristaps Porzingis was acquired from the Knicks last season in a trade and he was healthy and ready to go to open this season. He's averaging 18.5 & 8.2 and with Doncic putting up Westbrook-like numbers (28.7-10.3-9.3), the Mavs surely have shown signs of being a playoff team. Five more players have played in all 11 games this season, with two others playing in 10 of 11. That group consists of guys averaging anywhere from 6.4-to-11.6 PPG. However, the Mavs check in at a modest 6-5 and that includes TWO losses to the pathetic NY Knicks, home and away, in a seven-day span. Dallas has yet to convince me that "it is back," but the Raptors are in a tough spot, playing their FIFTH game in nine days. With no Lowry or Ibaka for Toronto, I expect Dallas to get a much-needed, confidence-building win here at home, against the defending champs. Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +11 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 47 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State. Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs). The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st). Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2). Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016, completing an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season. Minnesota's 31-26 win at home last Saturday over previously unbeaten Penn St gave the Gophers to their first 9-0 start since 1904. Minnesota earned a No. 7 ranking in last Sunday's AP poll (highest since ranking 5th back in the 1962 season) plus jumped from No. 17 to No. 8 in the latest CFP rankings. 6-0 Minnesota leads 4-2 Wisconsin by TWO games in the Big Ten West and can take a big step towards their first Big Ten West Division title by winning in Iowa City on Saturday against 6-3 Iowa (3-3 in Big Ten). Iowa's hopes of winning the West Division are on 'life support' after dropping a 24-22 decision last Saturday at Wisconsin, missing a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion try late in the fourth quarter. The Hawkeyes are THREE games behind the Golden Gophers with three contests remaining. P.J. Fleck 'surfed' the locker room after what non-believers would call an upset over Penn State last week, then asked his players to grab a hand. "Whatever you believe in, whoever you believe in, this is what sport does, bring so many people together," Fleck told the group after his 18-second ride. There is NO doubt he's a motivator! QB Tanner Morgan had one of the best games of his career against the Nittany Lions, completing 18-of-20 passes for 339 yards and three TDs, improving to 13-2 as the starting QB. He's completing 67.9% on the season with 21 TDs and just four INTs. He has two quality targets in Johnson (50 catches / 14.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and Bateman (38 catches / 22.3 YPC / 7 TDs) plus RB Smith leads a running game averaging 195.2 YPG (38th) with 940 yards on 5.5 YPA with 7 TDs. Minnesota is averaging 37.6 PPG (15th), while allowing 20.7 PPG (27th). It's been a "close but no cigar" season for Iowa in this year's Big Ten, as the Hawkeyes have lost THREE games all against ranked teams. Iowa lost 10-3 at then-No. 18 Michigan, 17-12 at home to then-No. 10 Penn St and 24-22 just last Saturday at then-No. 13 Wisconsin. QB Nate Stanley (60.7% with 12 TDs and 5 INTs) threw for 208 yards and two TDs in the loss to Wisconsin, overtaking Ricky Stanzi (7,377) for third place on the program's all-time passing yards list with 7,509. He leads an offense that averages just 24.1 YPG (98th) and one which can't match Minnesota's skill players at RB or receiver. However, Iowa's defense is allowing only 11.7 PPG (4th) on 289.3 YPG (11th). I like Fleck but this is not Kirk Ferentz's first 'rodeo.' He's in his 21st year at Iowa and after going 4-19 in 1999 and 2000, he's led the Hawkeyes to 16 bowls in 18 seasons (make that 17 of 19, here in 2019). I called Minnesota's upset against Penn St last Saturday but let's look closer at its entire "body of work." Here's Minnesota's first four games. It opened with a 28-21 home win over SD St, which averages just 20.8 PPG. Minnesota needed OT to win at Fresno St 38-35 (Bulldogs are a 4-5 team) plus beat Ga Southern only 35-32 as a 17-point favorite. Minnesota then won 38-31 at Purdue (Boilermakers are just 4-6 in 2019). Yes, Minnesota comes into this contest having outscored its last five conference opponents 199-67 but note that Penn St almost 'caught' Minnesota late in last Saturday's game, with the Minnesota D allowing 518 yards. How did Penn St's offense fair at Iowa vs the Hawkeyes? The Nittany Lions scored just 17 points (they average 37.1 PPG) and gained only 294 yards (they average 434.8 YPG). Iowa has won FOUR straight vs Minnesota and note that THREE of those wins came over bowl-bound Minnesota teams. Minnesota has won 11 consecutive games (tied for the third-longest streak in the nation with Baylor) but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has captured EIGHT straight Floyd of Rosedale trophies at Kinnick Stadium! Make that NINE in a row! Good luck...Larry |
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11-16-19 | Belmont v. Boston College -1.5 | Top | 100-85 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on Boston College at 2:00 ET. Belmont and Boston College meet Saturday afternoon in Chestnut Hill in an on-campus Gotham Classic matchup. Belmont is coming off a 27-6 season which included an upset of 6th-seeded Maryland in the NCAAs, before losing 81-70 to Temple in the second round. However, the Bruins saw legendary head coach Rick Byrd retire (805 career wins), plus lost the 6-7 Windler (21.3 & 10.9) and guard McClain (16.8-3.6-3.9) from that team. Windler was a 1st round NBA draft choice and led Belmont with 35 & 11 in its upset of Maryland. McClain was a 1st-team All-OVC guard, who led Belmont with 29 points in the Temple loss. Boston has struggled to find its way into the top-half of the ACC and went just 14-17 (5-13 in the ACC) last season. Replacing Windler and McClain will be difficult but Belmont feels great about new head coach. Casey Alexander, who played for Byrd at Belmont, was his assistant for 16 years and then as Lipscomb's head coach, led them to a 29-8 record last year, including a runner-up finish in the NIT. The Bruins have a solid guard duo in Kunkel (20.5) and Murphy (10.0-8.5-5.0) plus up front, the 6-11 Muszynski has averaged 17.5 PPG and 6-7 grad transfer Scanlon has averaged 10.0-6.4-4.5. BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). However, BC is off to a 3-0 starts and seeks its first 4-0 start in 12 years. BC will really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but USC grad ttansfer Derryck Thornton has averaged 17.3 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic averaged 14.5 & 7.2 last season and in BC's 3-0 start, has averaged 12.7 & 5.7. The 6-8 Mitchell is also back up front and he's averaged 5.7 PPG and 10.7 RPG. A pair of freshman have also looked good in the early going, as guard Heathchecks in at 12.7 & 4.3 plus the 6-7 Felder has added 6.3 & 5.3. It's hard NOT to be impressed by the Belmont program in recent years but this is just the team's third game, owning a home win over Samford and then taking a 79-72 loss at Illinois St, which lost FOUR starters off last season's 17-win team. Meanwhile, BC opened with a conference win over Wake Forest (77-70) and has also won 74-60 at South Florida, last year's NIT champs. Belmont was picked to win the Ohio Valley Conference in coach Casey Alexander's first season but this visit to Boston does NOT end well. Good luck...Larry
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11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | Top | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 41 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch). Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF. Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards. A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here! Good luck...Larry |
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11-15-19 | West Virginia v. Pittsburgh +1 | Top | 68-53 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Pittsburgh at 7:00 ET. Bob Huggins became famous while coaching Cincinnati, leading the Bearcats to 16 straight postseason berths, including 14 straight NCAA bids. He was 'forced out' and after spending a year out of the coaching profession, accepted the head coaching job at Kansas State. It was a one-year 'pit stop' (23-12), as he returned to Morgantown (where he was born) to take the West Va job. As expected, he's led West Va to postseason berths in NINE of 12 seasons but is coming off just his second losing season with the Mountaineers, as they were just 15-21 in the 2018-19 season (4-14 in the Big 12 left them in last-place). West Virginia held off Akron 94-84 in its season opener on Nov 8. Pittsburgh welcomes the Mountaineers to the Petersen Events Center on Friday, with the Panthers off to a 2-1 start. Jeff Capel's first season at Pitt (2018-19) was a disaster, as the Panthers went 14-19 (3-15 in the ACC). Capel, a former standout at Duke, has previously led both VCU and Oklahoma to NCAA tourney bids. Early indications are that Jeff Capel is making some progress at Pitt. Here's how Huggins described last season. "You can't lose four starters (during the season) and be successful," he said. "We lost our PG, the best shot-blocker in the nation and two other starters who were pretty good , too, You can't do that!" The 6-10 Culver is back and he opened with 16 & 7 against Akron. The 6-7 Matthews looked good as well, chipping in 13 & 7 plus highly-touted 6-9 freshman Tshiebew added 5 & 5 in 10 minutes. The backcourt is deep with senior Harley (16-7-3) and freshman McBride (11-6-4) contributing the most in the team's season opener. Pittsburgh actually has three games under its belt, although the Panthers would like to forget getting upset 75-70 at home by Nicholls State, which was picked to finish 11th in the Southland Conference. However, the Panthers will want to build on their71-57 win at Robert Morris on Tuesday. The victory snapped a 24-game, true-road losing streak. Pittsburgh impressively overcame an 18-0 Colonials' run in the first half to record a true-road victory for the first time since Feb.8, 2017, at Boston College. The 6-10 Terrell Brown had eight points, nine rebounds and five blocks in his first start of the season (9.7 & 5.7). "Brown was really the difference in the game," Robert Morris coach Andrew Toole said. "His ability to protect the rim, and make it hard for our guys to finish around the basket had a huge impact on us offensively." Pitt is basically a perimeter-oriented team, with junior guard Murphy (17.0 & 3.7) leading all scorers, joined by sophomore guards McGowens (15.0-6.7-4.0) and Johnson (10.0-5.7-3.7) plus 6-6 freshman guard Champagnie (7.7 & 4.7). This is the 187th edition of the "Backyard Brawl," one which West Va won last season, 69-59. However, I noted above that Pittsburgh snapped its 24-game, true-road losing streak but that's 'chump change' compared to West Va's road woes. The Mountaineers will be seeking their first true road win in 633 days, since a win at Baylor back on Feb 20, 2018! What's more, they will have to do accomplish that against a hated-rival in Pittsburgh, which is 70-3 all-time in the month of November at the Petersen Events Center. At this price, Pitt is the ONLY way to go! Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-19 | Michigan State v. Seton Hall +6.5 | Top | 76-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* No. 3 vs No. 12 Showdown is on Seton Hall at 8:30 ET. The Gavitt Tipoff Games wrap up a week-long schedule when No. 3 Michigan State travels to South Orange, NJ to take on No. 12 Seton Hall. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history but lost 69-62 to then-No. 2 Kentucky on Nov 5 in the Champions Classic played at MSG. Kentucky rebounded from that season-opening loss with an easy 104-47 home win over Binghamton this past Sunday. Seton Hall returned four starters from last year's 20-win NCAA team and opened as the No. 12 team in the AP's preseason poll. The Pirates have opened 2-0 and held their spot in the first regular season poll but the Hall's 74-57 Saturday home win over Stony Brook came at a high 'price.' Senior guard Myles Powell averaged 23.1 PPG last season and scored 27 in the team's season-opener but he suffered a severe ankle injury early in Saturday's contest (he will NOT play here). Michigan St's loss to Kentucky was a disappointment but paled in comparison to the death of Zachary Winston, the younger brother of Spartans senior PG Cassius Winston (Preseason P-O-Y). Zachary died of an apparent suicide on Saturday night and he was friends with many players on the Spartans squad. However, Winston (19.0 & 7.5 APG) played the very next day and was outstanding against Binghamton, finishing with 17 points, 11 assists and just one turnover. 6-8 junior forward Xavier Tillman (12.0 & 8.5) rebounded from a disappointing opener with 17 points and eight rebounds against Binghamton. He's one of five MSU frontcourt players averaging between 7.5 and 12.5 PPG (the 6-6 Henry leads at 12.5). MSU's weakness is on the perimeter, as outside of Winston, Izzo's team does not have a consistent outside shooter with Langford (15.0 PPG last season) not expected to be available until January at the earliest. Myles Powell was voted the preseason Big East Player of the Year and according to head coach Kevin Willard, his sprained his left ankle will cause him to miss multiple games, although the ankle has reportedly responded well to treatment. Powell will be missed but PG McKnight (12.0 & 5.0 APG) is hardly alone in the backcourt. Rhoden (11.5) and Reynolds (9.0) each played extra minutes after Powell went down, as Rhoden played 27 minutes (11 points) and Reynolds played 28 (9 points). Willard's team features a HUGE frontcourt, with the 6-11 Mamukelashvili (14.0 & 5.) being aided by a pair of two 7-footers, Gill (9.0 & 6.0) and Obiagu (7.5 & 2.5). I'm a HUGE fan of Izzo but Kevin Willard can coach. He's led Seton Hall to four straight 20-win seasons, earning a bid to the "Big Dance" in each one. I had Kentucky when it beat Mich St back on Nov 5 and wrote, " I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), the 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8) from LY, will NOT get Langford back as expected (until Jan) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain." Nothing much has changed. Seton Hall took down Kentucky 84-83 (OT) last Dec 8th at MSG and here on its home court, does the same to Mich St. Take the points but expect a SU win by the Pirates. Good luck...Larry |
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11-14-19 | Steelers v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the Cle Browns at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI and they were expected to take a major step forward behind 2nd-year QB Baker Mayfield. Being on the cover of SI has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death" and the Browns opened the season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans. Cleveland snapped a 4-game losing streak last Sunday, edging the Bills, 19-16 to 'improve' to 3-6. However, the Browns are still holding out hope of making a run at a postseason berth and welcome their longtime time rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers, to Cleveland on Thursday. Cleveland is hoping to emulate Pittsburgh's turnaround, one which has seen the Steelers win FOUR in a row after a 1-4 start. The Steelers lost starting QB Ben Roethlisberger in Week 2 but have surged into playoff contention and currently hold down the 6th and final playoff spot in the AFC. Pittsburgh's defense does not remind anyone of "The Steel Curtain" but it has scored in THREE of the past four games. "They are playing like the ‘85 (Chicago) Bears," QB Mason Rudolph said of his defense following Sunday's 17-12 win over the LA Rams. "It seems like, every week, forcing turnovers every other series." Safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has made an enormous impact on Pittsburgh's defense since he was acquired from Miami in mid-Sep, returning a fumble 43 yards for a TD on Sunday and bringing back an interception 96 yards for a score in the previous week's two-point win over Indianapolis. Rudolph has settled into his role and while he's not prolific, he has completed 64.5% for 1,933 yards with 11 TDs and just four INTs for a 93.0 QB rating. He's 4-2 as Pittsburgh's starter, losing only a 4-point decision at San Francisco and a 3-point OT game at home to Baltimore. Mayfield energized the Cleveland fan base during his rookie campaign (63.6% for 3,725 yards with 27 TDs and 14 INTs / QB rating of 93.7), but he has regressed in Year 2, completing only 59.9 percent with 9 TDs and 12 INTs for a QB rating of 75.2. However, the Browns have quality 'skill' players in RB Nick Chubb (919 rushing yards on 5.3 YPA with 6 TDs) plus WRs OBJ and Landry have 'tons' of talent, underachieving due to Mayfield's poor play (Landry has two TD catches and OBJ just one). The Cleveland D is allowing 24.6 PPG (21st). Here's the rub. Kudos to Pittsburgh's improved defensive play and Rudolph's better-than-expected QB play. However, I am NOT convinced that the Steelers aren't doing it "with mirrors." They have no running game at all (average 83.2 YPG to rank 27th) and while Connor may return here, he reminds no one of Bell, with 380 YR on 3.9 YPA. As for Pittsburgh's passing game, it also ranks 27th, averaging 205.6 YPG. The Browns were able to snap a 4-game losing streak vs Buffalo,as Mayfiled directed a 10-play, 82-yard TD drive in the closing minutes. He's completing 66.3% the last two games, averaging 255.5 YPG thru the air with three TD passes and zero INTs in 80 attempts. Chubb ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing and eclipsed 100 yards for the 4th time in six games last week (he's had EIGHT straight games with at least 90 yards from scrimmage). Joining the backfield mix last Sunday after serving an 8-game suspension was former Kansas City RB Kareem Hunt, a former 1,000-yard rusher who picked up 30 yards rushing and added seven catches for 44 yards in his season debut. Also, Landry caught nine passes and a TD last week, while OBJ had five catches, his 4th straight with at least five receptions. I'm not buying into Cleveland's hope of making the playoffs but I would not be surprised to see the Browns play MUCH better down the stretch with a .500 record within reach. FOUR of Cleveland's last six games (after this one) feature Miami, two vs 0-9 Cincy and a game with 3-6-1 Arizona. Pittsburgh's traveling on a short week and I think FIVE straight wins for this mediocre team is a 'bridge too far!' Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -2 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET. The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season. Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019. Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th). Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th). The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here? Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | Clippers v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 7:35 ET. The LA Clippers and Houston Rockets have each opened 7-3 and will square off in the first game of Wednesday's ESPN doubleheader. Kawhi Leonard led the Toronto Raptors to an NBA championship in his lone season with the team last spring and helped the Clippers to a 98-88 victory over his former team on Monday. Leonard struggled in going just 2-of-11 from the floor on Monday but finished with 12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists and three steals. The Rockets played on Monday night as well, winning 122-166 at New Orleans, as James Harden scored 39 points (more on him in a bit). Leonard is the 'face' of the Clippers, averaging 26.9-8.5-5.9 but Paul George is expected back soon, giving LA a formidable "1-2 punch!" As good Leonard and George are, LA's outstanding bench will be a huge part of any success the Clippers will have this postseason. Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (22.3 & 5.6 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.8 & 7.1) and Green (9.1 & 6.3), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. Houston's Monday win was its FOURTH in a row and Harden's 39 points was the fourth straight game in which he has scored at least 35 points. Harden's average of 37.3 points through the first 10 games is the highest the league has seen through a 10-game start since the NBA-ABA merger, besting Michael Jordan's 36.9 points in 1988-89 and 1986-87.Westbrook (21.9-8.7-7.4) has meshed well with Harden and both will be counted on even more than usual with third guard Eric Gordon (16.6 PPG scorer in his career) undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery on Wednesday, sidelining him for about six weeks.One of the league's best-kept 'secrets' is center Clint Capela, who is averaging 13.5 & 11.7. Kawhi has sat out two games due to "load management" and both were in games against quality opponents. He missed LA's game at Utah Oct 30 and then missed the team's home game on against Giannis and the Bucks (still don't get that one?). The Clippers will play at New Orleans tomorrow and one would expect Kawhi to play here but you just never know. The Clipper may have held Toronto to just 10 points in the 4th on Monday and to 88 points for the game but the Clippers have allowed a WHOPPING 120.7 PPG in their only three road games this season and here, face the NBA's top-scoring team (Rockets average 120.3 PPG). 'LOVE' the Rockets at the opening number but if Kawhi sits, I'll lay the higher number, as well. Good luck...Larry |
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11-13-19 | LSU v. VCU -3 | Top | 82-84 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on VCU at 6:00 ET. No. 23 LSU (1-0) visits Richmond, Va to take on VCU on Wednesday, which opened No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out in Monday's new poll, despite opening 2-0. LSU head coach Will Wade returns to the place where he won 51 games and made a pair of NCAA Tournaments in two seasons as the school's head coach. Wade was 51-20 at VCU from 2015-17 before taking the job in Baton Rouge,where he helped the 28-7 Tigers win their first SEC regular-season title since 2009 last season Lost in the Sweet 16). Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. Most likely remember that Wade was suspended by LSU last March due to allegations over illegal recruiting charges. He's back (for now), so let's talk basketball. Gone from last year's team are PG Waters (15.3 & 5.8 APG) plus frontcourt players the 6-9 Reid (13.6 & 7.2) and the 6-11 Bigby-Williams (7.9 & 6.7). Key players returning this this year are guards Javonte Smart (in the center of LY's recruiting scandal) and Skylar Mays. Smart had 21 points in Friday's 88-79 home win over Bowling Green, while Mays had 18 & 8. Sophomore forward Emmitt Williams had 21 points on 5-of-9 shooting from the floor, after averaging just 7.0 PPG last season. Fellow sophomore forward Davis had 13 points and seven rebounds, coming off averaging 5.3 & 4.0 last year. The team's most promising freshman is the 6-9 Trendon Watford, who debuted with 10 points and seven rebounds. The Rams return all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley. He started 23 games and chipped in modest totals of 4.2 & 2.5 (no real loss). The core of this year's team will be senior guards Jenkins (14.0 & 4.5) and Evans (12.5), plus 6-7 junior Santos-Silva (12.0 & 12.5). However, don't dismiss senior guard Mike’L Simms just yet, as while he's gone just 2-of-9 from the floor in the first two games, he as just ONE turnover in 49 total minutes. “VCU is a great place,” Will Wade told reporters. “As a coach you travel around a lot. That’s the longest I’ve been in one place. I was there four years as an assistant. I was there two years as the head coach. They’ve got tremendous fans. … It will be rowdy, but it should be fun.” My bet follows the saying, "You can't go home." VCU is well-balanced and well-coached and will be looking to get back into the top-25 by knocking off LSU in this one. This contest is VCU's lone real test before playing in Niceville, Fl (Emerald Coast Classic) Nov 29-30. Wade and his Tigers will fine "nothing fun" about this visit to the Siegal Center! Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Memphis v. Oregon -3.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Top-15 Showdown is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. Penny Hardaway's first season as head coach of his alma mater (Memphis) resulted in a 22-win season. The Tigers lost all FIVE starters from that team but they've been replaced by what most considered the best recruiting class of the 2019-20 season. However, the situation is not without drama, as the 'jewel' of that class, 7-1 freshman James Wiseman, is the center of an NCAA investigation which ruled him ineligible. Attorneys for Wiseman have since sued the NCAA and while the legal process continue Wiseman, has averaged 22.5 & 10.0 in the Tigers' 2-0 start. Memphis is ranked 13th in the latest AP poll and tonight visits the Moda Center (home of the Trail Blazers) to take on 2-0 Oregon, which is ranked 14th. Oregon opened with a 14-point win over Fresno St and then shot 70 percent from the floor (including 13 of 19 from three-point range), in a 106-75 rout of Boise St. Wiseman leads the consensus top recruiting class in the country, which also includes guard Ellis (15.0), the 6-9 Achiuwa (12.0 & 7.5) and the 6-7 Jeffries (9.5 & 4.0). There's more, in freshman guards Quinones (7.0-3.5-4,.0) and Baugh (4.0 & 6.0 APG). Sophomore guards Alex Lomax and Tyler Harris, the only prominent holdovers from last season’s team, have combined to average 16.5 points in the wins over South Carolina State and the UIC. Oregon's Bol Bol is gone plus a trioo0f 6-9 players, King, White and Wooten, who were major contributors in Oregon's Pac 12 tourney title and Sweet 16 runs, are also gone. However, PG Ptrichard (21.5-6.5-7.0) leads an excellent cast. He teams with fellow senior Mathis (19.5) plus JC transfer Duarte (11.5-6.0-3.5) in the backcourt. Up front, 6-7 freshman Patterson (8.5) joins 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (10.5-4.5-5.0) and 6-9 sophomore Okoro. Okoro missed Saturday’s game after posting 10 points and 10 rebounds in the opener. He was struck by a car and is listed day-to-day. The Phil Knight Invitational (named for the Nike co-founder) is technically a neutral-court game, but it's less than two hours from Eugene, home of the Ducks. Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and owns a HUGE coaching edge over the still untested Hardaway. In 'friendly surroundings,' I 'love' the Ducks at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Thunder v. Pacers -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team but there is still no timetable for his return. Indiana opened the current season 0-3 but the Pacers now look like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference with SIX wins in their last seven games. As for OKC, it seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Thunder were in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, as the team's top-four scorers are in their first season with OKC. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (21.0-5.8-3.4) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (18.6 & 5.0, while shooting 43.7% on threes), Paul (16.1-3.6-5.2) and Schroder (14.7-5.2-34.7).The Thunder pushed the Milwaukee Bucks to the brink on Sunday, before falling 121-119. Gallinari suffered through one of his worst shooting games (was just 4-of-17 from the floor) but made a key three-pointer down the stretch to keep his team close. Backup PG Dennis Schroder helped keep the Thunder in the game with a season-high 25 points on 9-of-12 shooting. OKC features a balanced attack but it could sure use a healthy Steven Adams. The center is averaging 8.3 & 10.1 but sat out the Milwaukee game and has missed THREE of OKC's last five with a knee issue (he's listed as questionable for this one). The Pacers welcome the Thunder to Bankers Life Fieldhouse with center Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) and newly-acquired SG Jeremy Lamb (17.0& 6.4) both dealing with ankle sprains and neither will play. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has become the team-leader this season, averaging 20.8-5.2-8.9. However, the 6-11 Sabonis is quietly becoming a star. He had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season. The Gonzaga posted his fourth straight double-double with 21 points and 16 rebounds in Sunday's 109-102 victory at Orlando plus matched a season high with seven assists (he's averaging 20.0-13.0-4,1 on the season). Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs McDermott and Sampson are seeing more time, as is reserve point guard T.J. McConnell. McDermott has averaged 17.0 PPG over his last three games and McConnell has scored 29 points and handed out 17 assist over his last two. Indiana is on a roll, going 6-1 SU & 5-1-1 ATS its last seven. The Pacers are a very tough matchup for OKC, which seemed to be developing a defensive identity, allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3) heading into a Thursday game at San Antonio. However, the Thunder have allowed 116.7 PPG over their last three games and now take on an Indiana team averaging 112.9 PPG over its last seven games. OKC has four wins this season, two over 2-9 Golden St and one each against 2-8 New Orleans and 3-7 Orlando. One last thing, the Thunder are 0-3 on the road, allowing 112.3 PPG. "Batten down the hatches" and lay the points with Indiana. Good luck...Larry |
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11-12-19 | Missouri v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 58-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Game of the Month is on Xavier at 7:00 ET. Missouri and Xavier have both opened 2-0, as the two teams meet Tuesday night in Cincinnati (Cintas Center). The Tigers are coming off a 15-17 season and in the preseason, were picked to finish 13th in the 14-school SEC. Xavier is coming off a 19-16 season, although the Musketeers were ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll (despite a 2-0 start, Xavier was ranked 21st in the first regular season poll). This marks Cuonzo Martin's third season at Missouri. He led theTigers to an NCAA appearance in his first but the Tigers had no such success last season. Missouri has opened 2-0 while holding opponents to 49.0 PPG but the team's opening win was over Incarnate Word. SEVEN of last year's top-nine scorers are back, led by 6-10 junior Jeremiah Tilmon. He's averaging 14.5 & 6.0 but the only other Missouri player in double digits is sophomore guard Xavier Pinson (11.5-3.0-5..5), who comes off the bench. Mark Smith, a 6-5 junior guard who missed the final seven games of last season with a foot injury, failed to score in an opening win over Incarnate Word but rebounded with 19 points in Friday's victory over Northern Kentucky (note: No. Ky won 26 games last year and made the "Big Dance"). Evansville transfer Dru Smith starts alongside of Mark Smith in the backcourt and is averaging 8.5 PPG. Travis Steele was hired by Sean Miller at Xavier for the 2008-09 season. He was retained by Chris Mack after Miller accepted the Arizona head coaching position and has been a part of a Musketeers program that has been to eight NCAA tournaments, including an Elite Eight run in 2017. Steele was promoted to head coach when Mack took the Louisville job. Following Miller and Mack was NOT expected to be easy and it wasn't. However, Xavier rallied to win EIGHT of its final 11 regular season games and went to a postseason tourney (NIT) for the 13th time in 14 seasons. Xavier lost just ONE starter off last year's team, the 6-11 Hankins who averaged 10.6 & 5.3. The Musketeers feature a terrific forward duo, as 6-9 senior Jones is averaging 18.5 & 8.5 plus 6-7 junior Marshall is averaging 18.45-7.0-5.5. Some bad news is that returning guard Paul Scruggs (12.3 PPG last season), who had 12 points against Jacksonville before suffering a knee injury , did not play against Siena and appear s unlikely to play against Missouri (he was a preseason honorable mention all-Big East selection). However, 6-9 freshman Zach Freemantle and 6-8 Ohio U transfer Jason Carter, could play play big roles for Xavier this season. Freemantle is off to a promising start (9.0 & 5.5), while Carter (5.5 & 2.0), not so much. This will be Xavier's first 'test' of the season, or is it? Martin did lead Missouri to the NCAAs in his first season, despite a 5-6 road record. However, the Tigers had gone an "hard-to-believe" 0-30 on the road in the previous three seasons and last year reverted to form by going 2-8 on the road. Why should Missouri win here, where Xavier has gone 88-16 (.846) since joining the Big East back at the start of the 2013-14 season. What's more, 'ringing in Xavier's ear' will be Missouri's 71-56 home win over the Musketeers last season. REVENGE works in a "big way": in this one! Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-19 | Yale v. San Francisco -5.5 | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on San Francisco at 9:00 ET. Yale's James Jones is the longest tenured coach in the Ivy League. He's led the Bulldogs to three Ivy championships in the last five seasons, including two NCAA appearances. The 2015-16 season was special, as Yale won 23 games (the most since 1906-07) and advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 54 years where the Bulldogs upset Baylor to earn the first NCAA Tournament victory in Yale history. Last season wasn't bad either, as Jones guided Yale to Ivy League regular season and tournament titles and a 22-8 overall record. The Bulldogs knocked off Harvard in a thrilling Ivy League Tournament championship game and then nearly upset third-seeded LSU in the NCAA Tournament. Yale has opened 2-0 but gets a real test tonight, when the school visits the San Francisco Dons, who have also started 2-0. San Francisco saw head coach Tyler Smith, after three straight 20-win seasons, leave to take the Washington St job. However, his assistant coach, Todd Golden takes over. The Dons are thrilled with his promotion, as he played at St Marry's and has worked under Smith at Columbia and here at San Francisco, with a 'pit stop' under Bruce Pearl at Auburn, in between. Yale lost four starters (as well as its top-three scorers) of last year's team. Most notable, is the loss of Ivy League POY Miye Oni (17.1 & 6.3). However, Jones feels that the 6-10 Atkinson and guard Swain are almost returning starters, as each played in every game last season. He may be right about that, as Atkinson is averaging 19.0 & 4.5 and Swain 14.0 & 4.5. The team's lone returning starter, the 6-9 Bruner (10.4 & 8.3 LY), is averaging a double-double to open this season at 10.0 & 10.5 The Dons love Golden's pedigree but he will have to replace the heart and soul of last year's team, PG Ferrari (14.7 &5.5 APG). That said, the current team looks very solid and balanced. The Dons have started a trio of guards in Mineland (15.5 & 4.), Bouyea (13.0 & 6.0) and Ratinho (13.0), while Central Washington transfer Shabazz (11.0 & 6.5) looks like an excellent addition. The 7-0 Lull (12.0 & 8.0) and the 6-8 Kunen (7.5 & 7.0) start up front, with the 6-9 Raitanen (6.5 & 5.5) coming off the bench. This contest begins a tough stretch for Yale, which plays at Oklahoma St (11/17) and Penn St (11/23) a part of the NIT Season Tip-Off. San Francisco opens with SIX of its first seven at home and will take the court tonight on a nine-game November winning streak. The Dons went 7-0 in November of 2018 and have opened 2-0 here in 2019. The Dons beat two Ivy League schools in last November's 7-0 run (Harvard and Dartmouth) plus beat Princeton by 10 Saturday at Chase Center (Warriors new home) and will take a seven-game winning streak against Ivy League opponents into tonight's contest. "The Price is Right" and I'm taking the home team. Good luck...Larry |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 126 h 11 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Nov Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:15 ET. Who'da thunk it? Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 his first two seasons but here in 2019, when the Ravens knocked off the Pats in Week 9's SNF game, the San Francisco 49ers found themselves as the NFL's lone remaining undefeated team. The 49ers have some extra rest (played the Thursday night game in Week 9) and they'll need every edge they can get, as Russell Wilson (leading MVPcandidiate?) leads the Seattle Seahawks into Levi's Stadium. Seattle is 7-2 and win would leave them just a half-game back of San Francisco in the NFC West. This once-fierce rivalry between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco had a bit of everything during a heated stretch early this decade but with the departure of Harbaugh, most of the steam came out of the rivalry. In fact, this is the first time since Thanksgiving night in 2014, where both teams have a winning record. No QB is playing better than Russell Wilson, who has a 22-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has posted a passer rating of 102 or higher in eight of nine games. He's completing 68.3% for 2,505 yards and his QB rating of 118.2 is tops in the league. Tyler Lockett (team-high 59 catches and six TDs) has developed into Wilson's top target but note that rookie DK Metcalf is a star in the making, with 29 catches (18.1 YPC) with five TDs. Seattle led the NFL in rushing last season (160.0 YPG) but the team checks in averaging 131.7 YPG on the ground this season (7th). However, RB Carson is coming on strong. After totaling only 158 yards in Seattle's first three games, he's had 100-plus in FOUR of his last six (764 yards on the season). Seattle is a legitimate NFC title contender but its "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past, as the Seahawks are allowing 25.6 PPG (22nd) on 380.8 YPG (25th). While QB Jimmy Garoppolo takes up a lot of 'oxygen' (more in a bit), one HAS to start with San Francisco's defense. The 49ers rank first in total D (24.10 YPG) and second in scoring D (12.8 PPG). However, the 49ers suffered a big loss last week when LB Kwon Alexander went down with a season-ending torn left pectoral muscle. He was considered the heart and soul of the defense. "Since Day 1, the defense has been what it is because of him," starting MLB Fred Warner said. "He was playing at a Pro Bowl level, but the things people didn't notice is what really made him stand apart." Getting back to Garoppolo, he threw for a personal-best four TDs and eclipsed 300 yards (317) for the third time in his career in San Francisco's 28-25 victory over Arizona on Oct 31. He's completing 70.3% of his passes but even with that four-TD effort, his ratio on the season is 13-7 (not 22-1 like Wilson). Garoppolo's 'LEGEND' is based on his record as a starter (16-2, including 14-2 with the 49ers). He's greatly helped by the NFL's second-best rushing attack (171.1 YPG), led by Matt Beida (524 yards on 5.3 YPA) plus supported by Coleman (355) and Mostert (307). Seattle had won 10 straight in the series before a 26-23 (OT) loss at Levi’s in Week 15 of 2018. However, as noted above, San Francisco was in a "rebuilding mode" in that stretch. What has me 'loving' Seattle is this spot is Seattle going 4-0 SU on the road in 2019 and covering SIX in a row as an underdog going back to early in the 2018 season. I called Baltimore's upset in Week 9 over the Pats and predict it will be "deja vu all over again" here in Week 10, with Seattle handing San Francisco its first loss of 2019. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). However, the Vikings lost a close one last Sunday at KC 26-23, despite the Chiefs playing without Pat Mahomes. The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG but the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest and after a bye week, a 37-18 victory at the New York Giants in a MNF Week 9 contest. The Cowboys now play a THIRD straight primetime game, as they welcome the Vikings to Arlington on Sunday night in Week 10. The Vikings got a nice break last week when the Chargers upset the Packers, so Minnesota remains just one game back of Green Bay in the NFC North. Kirk Cousins remains an enigma. He's completing 68.8% for 2,217 yards with 16 TDs and three INTs on the season (112.0 QB rating) but while hew threw fthree TDs last Sunday, he has still not guided Minnesota to a victory when trailing entering the fourth quarter. He fell to 0-10-1 in such games after Kansas City kicked two FGs in the final 2 1/2 minutes last week. Some bad news comes in the fact that WR Adam Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) aggravated a hamstring injury in Sunday's loss and will not play. RB Dalvin Cook has run for an NFL-leading 894 yards (5.1 YPA / 9 TDs) and may get more work. Minnesota's D has been very good, allowing 17.6 PPG (4th) on 320.9 YPG (8th). Dak Prescott is having an excellent season, averaging 297.5 YPG passing and completing 69.6 percent of his passes (both would be career highs). He leads an offense that tops the NFL with 436.8 YPG, although Dallas is averaging 28.4 PPG (just 5th-best). WR Amari Cooper (42 catches / 16.7 YPC / 6 TDs) was diagnosed with a bruised knee that prevented him from practicing Thursday but he is expected to play Sunday. We can also expect Dallas to lean on RB Ezekiel Elliott (741 yards on 4.7 YPA with six TDs), as he's rushed for at least 100 yards in three straight games, including 139 on 23 carries last week against the Giants. The Cowboys' D hasn't gotten enough credit, as it is allowing 17.8 PPG (5th) on 318.1 YPG (6th). Here's the bottom line. Minnesota fell back into some bad habits at KC, as Kirk Cousins was again subject to the sort of pressure that often gets him rattled. The Vikings rarely played from behind their four-game winning streak but Cousins is now 0-10-1 SU in his career with Minnesota when trailing in the fourth quarter. Adding 'insult to injury,' Minnesota enters this contest winless in its last 10 road games (0-9-1) versus teams with a winning record. One more thing, Prescott, is 4-0 head-to-head against Cousins! Good luck..Larry |
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11-10-19 | Ravens v. Bengals +10.5 | Top | 49-13 | Loss | -135 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Baltimore Ravens have been the 'kings' of the preseason (have won 17 straight!) but since winning the Super Bowl after the 2012 season, Baltimore has missed the playoffs in FOUR of the last six seasons. However, the 2019 Ravens are winners of FOUR in a row, after handing the Patriots their first loss of the season last Sunday night. Baltimore's convincing 37-20 victory over the Patriots leaves them 6-2 in the AFC North but more importantly, the victory could be the kind of signature win to propel the team to greater heights. Baltimore heads to Cincinnati this Sunday to take on the 0-8 Bengals, the NFL's only remaining winless team. The Bengals are coming off their bye week and decided to pull the plug on longtime starting QB Andy Dalton. Fourth-round draft choice Ryan Finley (NC St) will be making his first NFL start. Many teams questioned whether Heisman-winner Lama Jackson had "the goods" to become an NFL starter but few (if any) have ny doubts now. Jackson has turned the Ravens into an offensive juggernaut that leads the NFL in scoring offense at 31.4 PPG. Baltimore is also first in rushing with 204.9 YPG (5.5 YPA) and second in total offense (427.0 YPG). Jackson is completing 64.3% for 1,813 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs, plus leads the team with 637 rushing yards (6.4 YPA and 5 TDs). Another former Heisman-winner, RB Mark Ingram, has 585 rushing yards, while averaging 5.1 YPA and leads the team with seven rushing TDs. Baltimore's defense is no longer in the mold of the Ray Lewis era but with its "new and improved" offense, allowing 22.0 PPG (16th) on 348.8 YPG (15th) is good enough. The Bengals out-played the Seahawks in Week 1 at Seattle (429 yards to 232) but lost 21-20. It's been all downhill since, as the Bengals have gone 0-7 SU & 2-5 ATS and now will turn the starting QB duties over to Finley, who has never taken a snap in an NFL regular-season game. Cincinnati's offense ranks 29th in scoring (15.5 PPG) and 25th in total offense (317.9 YPG) plus the team's turnover margin of minus-9 isn't helping a defense ranks last in yardage allowed (435.8 YPG) and 24th in scoring defense (26.3 PPG). The good news? How can it get worse? No Dalton at QB just may be a good thing. "I think I'm ready for it," Finley told reporters. "I'm confident in my ability to play, and I'm confident in this team's ability to bounce back and get some wins." So why play Cincy? Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in its nine division games since the beginning of last season (that's an 89% "go-against) and believe it or not, Cincinnati has won SIX of the last seven times it has hosted Baltimore. Baltimore is 'ripe' for a letdown after its Sunday night domination of the Pats and enters this game on an abysmal 2-12 ATS run when favored (an 86% "go-against), going back to Week 7 of last season.. Good luck...Larry |
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11-10-19 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC North) is on the Chi Bears at 1:00 ET. The 3-4-1 Detroit Lions and the 3-5 Chicago Bears meet Sunday at Soldier Field and while neither team looks "playoff-bound" (or playoff-worthy), the loser of this contest can pretty much start preparing for the 2020 draft and season. The Lions lost 31-24 at Oakland last Sunday, falling to 1-4 in their last five games. QB Matthew Stafford passed for 406 yards and three TDs but failed to connect on a fourth-down attempt in the waning moments. As for the Bears, they went three-and-out on their first five possessions and managed a meager nine total yards of offense in the first half at Philly, falling behind 19-0 in a 22-14 loss, the team's FOURTH in a row. Stafford will take the field today for his 150th career game and his numbers look good again in 2019. He's completing 64.3 percent and ranks second in TD passes (19), fourth in yards (2,499) and fifth in QB rating (106.0). He has thrown for more than 300 yards, and three-plus TDs (with just one INT / has five on the season in 291 attempts) in each of the last three games, but the Lions are just 1-2 in that span (more on that, later). Then again, he gets almost no help from a running game averaging just 96.0 YPG (21st) and Detroit's defense ranks among the worst in the NFL, allowing 424.1 YPG (31st) and 27.1 PPG (27th). The Bears won the NFC Central last season with a 12-4 record, led by a defense that ranked first in points allowed (17.7 per) and third in total defense (299.7 YPG). However, Chicago's postseason ended with Cody Parkey's double-doink FG misfire in a 16-15 home loss to the Eagles. Chicago's defense remains solid, allowing 18.0 PPG (6th) on 323.6 YPG (9th) but the team's offense has been a HUGE problem.The Bears are averaging 17.8 PPG (27th) on 266.8 YPG (29th). Most of the blame is falling on the shoulders of QB quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who is averaging 180.4 YPG passing (Stafford is averaging 312) with five TDs and three INTs for a QB rating of 80.0. Trubisky has gone so far as to publicly request that televisions are turned off inside Halas Hall in a bid to shield the sputtering team from outside criticism. Some good news on offense is that rookie RB David Montgomery appears to have overcome a slow start and is headed in the right direction after rushing for his first multi-TD performance of his career at Philly last Sunday (he ran for 135 yards the week before in a one-point loss to the Chargers). As noted above, Stafford had a HUGE game at Oakland last Sunday but in the end, failed to convert. His pass to Logan Thomas from the one-yard-line was broken up in the end zone with three seconds remaining. And so it goes...Stafford had a breakout season in 2011 (5,038 yards) and followed with SIX straight seasons of better than 4,000 yards, before falling short with 3,777 in 2018. He's averaging 312 YPG in 2019, putting on pace to challenge 5,000 passing yards again. However, the Lions are 1-4 after a 2-0-1 start. So what else is new? For all of Stafford's 'pretty' numbers (and HUGE contract), his record as a starting QB sits at 69-79-1. The Bears won both meetings last season, 23-16 at Detroit, and then 34-22 at home. Stafford threw FOUR 'picks' in the two contests and note that while Trubisky missed the win in Detroit because of an injury, he threw for a career-high 355 yards (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in that 34-22 home win. Chicago snaps its four-game losing skid here. Good luck.,..Larry |
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11-09-19 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -1 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4. The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama. Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El. Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Celtics v. Spurs -1 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the SA Spurs at 5:05 ET. The Boston Celtics had no answers for the the 76ers in Philly back on Oct 23, losing 107-93 in their season-opener. However, Boston has won SIX in a row, since. Boston's 6-1 record is tops in the Eastern Conference and the Celtics look to make it SEVEN straight wins when they visit AT&T Center in San Antonio for a game with the 5-3 Spurs. The Celtics easily won 108-87 Charlotte Hornets on Thursday night,while the Spurs snapped a two-game slide with a 121-112 win over OKC the same night. It seems like Boston is happy with Kemba Walker as its PG, instead of Kyrie, who is now in Brooklyn. Walker (24.3-5.1-4.0) has been an easy fit within Brad Stevens' offense plus the return to form of SF Gordon Hayward has put a smile on Stevens' face. The former All-Star battled through an inconsistent 2018-19 season while recovering from a leg injury but has averaged 20.3-7.9-4.6 so far, looking more like the star from his Utah years. He joins Jayson Tatum (21.6 & 7.7) to give Boston an outstanding starting forward duo. Boston also got swingman Jaylen Brown (16.0 & 6.3) back against the Hornets and he scored 12 in the win. He had missed three games with a leg infection that he said required five hospital trips. Center Enes Kanter (knee) has missed the last six games and is not expected to play Saturday but reports are, "he's close." San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.0-4.5-5.0) and PF Aldridge (19.0 & 6.6) give the team a solid "Big 2." That said, San Antonio had been waiting for a breakout game from Aldridge and finally got one on Thursday, when he went off for a season-high 39 points on 19-of-23 shooting. Aldridge had averaged 12.3 points on 39.1 percent shooting in the four previous games (Spurs were just 1-3). More good news came in that PG Dejounte Murray added 17 points, 10 assists and eight rebounds on Thursday for his first points-assists double-double of the season. Murray (12.9-8.0-5.4) looks fully recovered from his knee injury and is off his minutes restrictions. He joins FOUR other Spurs (no counting DeRozan and Al\ldridge), scoring in double digits. The group includes Forbes (14.5), backup PG White (11.9), Mills (11.6) and SF Green (10.5 & 6.9). Tre Lyles starts at center and while he's not much of a scoring threat (4.2), he's averaging 7.8 RPG in only 20 minutes. Here's the bottom line. The Spurs' domination of the Celtics has 'long legs,' as San Antonio is 44-13 in their matchups with Boston since 1990. However, recent history, is more applicable.The Celtics last won at San Antonio in March 2011, before proceeding to drop 14 of their next 15 to Gregg Popovich's squad (Spurs are 11-3-1 ATS, 79% in that span, dating back SEVEN years). Brad Stevens has bested Popovich only ONCE, a 108-94 home win in October 2017. What changes here? NOTHING! Especially at this price. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET. David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12). Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change. While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th). Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert! Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Baylor v. TCU +3 | Top | 29-23 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on TCU at 12:00 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 after surviving a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite. Baylor owns a 10-game winning streak and currently is ranked 11th in the latest AP poll, while opening No. 12 in the first CFP rankings. The Bears head to Forth Worth on Saturday to face the 4-4 TCU Horned Frogs (2-2 in Big 12). TCU beat then-No. 15 Texas 34-27 on Oct 26 but then lost 34-27 at Oklahoma St last Saturday. Head coach Gary Patterson but it well telling reporters last Saturday, "We're just good enough we can beat anybody we got in this league, and we're just good enough we can get beat by anybody in this league." , Baylor's latest win was a 17-14 Halloween night victory over West Virginia in which it found a way to eke out a win by fending off the Mountaineers' big plays. Baylor outgained West Virginia 453-219 but lost three fumbles. QB Charlie Brewer is completing 67.6 percent for 2,143 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. FIVE players have over 160 yards rushing, led by Lovett (495 YR / 6.4 YPA) and Hasty (439 RY / 6.3 YPA). Baylor owns a very balanced offense, averaging 280.9 YPG passing and 199.4 YPG rushing, leading to averaging 36.1 PPG (24th). The defense has played well all season, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG (20th) on 341.1 YPG (31st). TCU played a bad game at Stillwater last week. The Horned Frogs allowed 223 rushing yards to Chuba Hubbard, the nation's leading rusher, the most ever by an opponent in coach Gary Patterson's 19-season tenure in Fort Worth. The Frogs also committed four turnovers. QB Max Duggan was knocked out in the fourth quarter of last week's loss with a finger injury but Patterson has told reporters he expects Duggan to play. The freshman has thrown for 1,405 yards with 12 TDs and just four INTs (three coming vs OSU). Like Baylor, TCU has excellent offensive balance, passing for 221.5 YPG and rushing for 220.2 YPG, while averaging 33.4 PPG (42nd). The defense is allowing a modest 326.2 YPG (25th) but 26.1 PPG (59th). Rhule has done a great job at Baylor but the Bears begin a brutal three-game stretch, starting with this game at Fort Worth. Baylor returns home next Saturday to host No. 9 Oklahoma and then travels to Austin to play Texas the following Saturday. More importantly, how many times can Baylor "pull a rabbit out of its hat?" The Bears edged Iowa St 23-21, needed two OTs to beat Texas Tech (now 3-5) and in its last game, beat West Va (now 3-5) by three points. Even Baylor's 45-27 win over OSU was deceiving. The Bears actually trailed 27-24 in the 4th quarter, before scoring the game's last three TDs. How tough has TCU been at home under Gary Patterson. He took over at TCU full-time in 2001 and since that first season, the Horned Frogs are 89-22 SU at home, including 3-1 in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-22.2 PPG. The Horned Frogs have won FOUR straight over Baylor and ruin the Bears perfect season with a win here. Good luck...Larry |
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11-09-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota +7 | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET. 8-0 Penn St is ranked 5th in the AP poll but entered the first College Football Playoff rankings at fourth, a first-ever for the school. Penn St's last game was an Oct 26 win at Michigan St (28-7), so the Nittany Lions head to Minneapolis with a week of rest. Like Penn St, Minnesota is also 8-0 (both are 5-0 in the Big Ten but Penn St is in the East and Minnesota in the West) and the Golden Gophers are also coming off a bye week. Minnesota routed Maryland 52-10 on Oct 26, reaching 8-0 for the first time since 1941 (note: Minnesota has not started a season 9-0 in 115 years!). Penn St is tied with Ohio St in the East and will meet the Buckeyes, who were No. 1 in the 1st CFP rankings, at Columbus on Nov 23. However, that upcoming game with the Buckeyes won't mean as much if the Lions cannot solve the Gophers.Sophomore QB Sean Clifford is second in the Big Ten in passing yards (1,931) and TDs (20), while throwing just three INTs. The Penn St running game is nothing special, averaging 172.4 YPG (57th). Freshman Noah Cain leads a fleet of running backs with 350 yards (hardly impressive). However, Penn St is averaging 38.5 PPG (13th) and that's "plenty good enough" with the team's OUTSTANDING defense. Penn St will enter TCF Bank Stadium allowing just 9.6 PPG (2nd) on 280.5 YPG (10th). Minnesota head coach PF Fleck came to national prominence when he "rowed the boat" at Western Michigan in 2016 when the Broncos completed an undefeated regular season at 12-0 (first for WMU since 1941). WMU then defeated Ohio in the MAC Championship Game for its first conference championship since 1988. Fleck and the Broncos lost to Wisconsin in the 2017 Cotton Bowl Classic 24-16 and it was then "on to Minnesota." The Golden Gophers were just 5-7 in 2017 but a bowl win in 2018 gave them an 7-6 record. 2019 has been a breakout season, although Penn St will be the first ranked team Minnesota has faced. QB Tanner Morgan has similar numbers to Clifford, completing 65.3% for for 1,761 yards with 18 TDs and four INTs. Minnesota's running game is better than Penn St's, averaging 204.5 YPG (31st), led by senior Rodney Smith (889 YR / 5.8 YPA / 7 TDs), who has rushed for at least 100 yards in all five Big Ten games. Minnesota's D is allowing just 283.8 YPG (13th) but has allowed 20.0 PPG, about 10 1/2 points more per game than Penn St. The QB matchup is 'a push,' but Minnesota has the best RB in the game (Smith). Take note that Penn St's offense has slowed, averaging under 300 YPG its last three games, while scoring just 24.3 PPG (that's two TDs below its season average). I'm 'rowing the boat' with Fleck by "taking the points" with Minnesota. Good luck....Larry |
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11-08-19 | Bucks v. Jazz +2 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET. Reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a historic start, as he is the first player in NBA history to exceed 200 points (232), 100 rebounds (114) and 50 assists (61) in the first eight games of season, as he's averaging 29.0-14.2-7.6. Giannis had a season-high 38 points to go with 16 rebounds and nine assists while leading the Bucks to a 129-124 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday, a contest Kawhi sat out (???). The 6-2 Bucks visit the 5-3 Utah Jazz on Friday in search of their fifth straight win. Utah snapped a two-game slide with a 106-104 home win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday, as star guard Donovan Mitchell had 24 points and a season-best eight assists. Middleton (18.6 & 5.2) continues too provide Milwaukee with a solid "second scoring option" to Antetokounmpo, while guards Bledsoe (14.5-5.8-4.5) and Hill (11.4) plus center Brook Lopez (10.4 & 4.4) also are averaging in double digits. The Bucks also own a deep bench, helping Milwaukee to average an NBA-high 122.1 PPG, while shooting a league-best 47.7% from the floor. Mitchell (25.5-4.8-3.9) is Utah's best player but he hardly stands alone. SF Bojan Bogdanovic (20.1 & 4.4) is making a smooth transition to the team while shooting 49.5 percent from the floor and 44.4 percent from beyond the arc plus new PG Conley is finding his 'sea legs' after a poor start. He scored 15 points against the 76ers for his third 15-point outing in four games and he is averaging 17.8 points during the stretch. Let's NOT forget Rudy Gobert (11.2 & 12.5), who is the centerpiece" of the NBA's stingiest defense. Utah allows an NBA-low 96.6 PPG on 41.6% shooting (3rd). This game features the top-scoring team in NBA against its best defensive one. I'm "all in" on Milwaukee being the East's best team but winning in Salt Lake City is NEVER easy for any team (more in a bit). First let me note that the Jazz are 4-0 SU at home outscoring opponents 107.2-to-94.0 PPG. to open the current season (have beaten the LAC & Sixers). Let me also add that the Jazz are in the rare role of being a home dog in this one, having gone 19-9 in their last 28 games in that role (68%). Milwaukee comes in playing its THIRD road game in five days (note: Hill took an elbow to his eye at the end of Wednesday's game and could be limited) and how does one IGNORE this factoid? The Bucks have lost their last 15 visits to Utah, going a money-burning 2-13 ATS, which is an 87% "go-against". Case Closed, as Archie Bunker liked to say! Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division (Central) Game of the Month is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. Not sure I've seem this before but Friday night, Central Division rivals Detroit and Indiana meet for the THIRD time in the season's first 18 days. The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG, but the Pistons have won both meetings this season, 119-110 at Indiana back on Oct 23 and then 96-94 in Detroit on Oct 28. Both teams come in off impressive offensive performances on Wednesday, as the Pistons routed the Knicks 122-102 and the Pacers beat the Wizards, 121-106. Detroit's Tony Snell (9.7) made all nine of his shots and became the first player in NBA history to shoot 100 percent from the floor with at least six 3-pointers in a 24-point effort. Center Andre Drummond (21.9 & 18.6) added 27 & 12 plus Markieff Morris (11.9 & 3.9) chipped in 22. Detroit shot 55.7 percent from the floor and recorded 37 assists (a season-high for the team). However, Detroit remains with out Blake Griffin (24.5-7.5-5.4 ), who has yet to play. What's more Derrick Rose (21.8 & 6.3 APG) has sat out the last two with a hamstring injury and won't play, starting PG Jackson has missed the last seven games and is expected to be out another month plus backup PG Tim Frazier remains listed as doubtful with a shoulder injury. Victor Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down with a season-ending knee injury (possible return in Dec). The 6-11 Myles Turner (14.8 & 6.8) is questionable with an ankle injury and SG Lamb (17.0) will not play, also because on ankle issue. However, Indiana has won FOUR of five following an 0-3 start. Malcom Brogdon (former Milwaukee Buck) has carried the load through the ups and downs of the current season, averaging 22.2-5.0-9.9. The 6-11 Sabonis had a breakout season last year (14.6 & 9.3) but is even better this season, averaging 20.3 & 12.3. Small forward TJ Warren was a scorer for the Suns and he's done the same for the Pacers, averaging 18.0 PPG. With injuries to Turner and Lamb, SFs Sampson (7.2) and McDermott (7.1) had big games vs Washington, as Sampson had 14 & 6 and McDermott 19 & 7. Detroit is 4-5 with HALF of its wins coming against the Pacers. Detroit's other two wins have come over the 3-4 Nets and 1-7 Knicks plus the Pistons have yet to win on the road (0-3 SU & ATS), except for their first game at Indiana. Indiana did lose at home to the Pistons to open the season but have gone 3-0 SU & ATS, since. The third time IS the charm, as the Pacers win this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
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11-08-19 | Davidson +2 v. Auburn | Top | 66-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Tourney Takedown is on Davidson at 6:00 ET. Auburn made an incredible run to last year's Final 4, before losing 63-62 to eventual champ Virginia. The Tigers lost a 'ton' off that team, most notably guards Brown (15.9) and Harper (15.3) plus the 6-8 Okeke (12.0 & 6.8). However, the Tigers will start four seniors in 2019-20. In contrast, Davidson comes off a 24-10 season and returns all five starters. The two schools square off in the Veterans Classic in Annapolis at 6:00 ET with Auburn coming off a nine-point home win over Ga Southern on Nov 5 and Davidson playing its season-opener. The Wildcats return their entire starting lineup from last season, led by Atlantic 10 Player of the Year , PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson (16.9-7.3-4.8). He's joined on the perimeter by Kellan Grady, an all-conference pick who averaged a team-high 17.3 PPG last season and Luke Frampton (10.3 PPG last season). Starting up front are the 6-6 Pritchett (6.9 & 3.6) and the 6-10 (Drogkovic (11.1 & 6.0). Sure Auburn lost five contributors from last season, the Tigers opened this season starting FOUR seniors plus freshman Isaac Okoro, who head coach Bruce Pearl called the best defensive guard he's ever signed. Okoro scored 12 points and added five points in Tuesday's win. He joined those four seniors in the starting lineup. SF Doughtly led with 20 points, while frontcourt mates center Wiley (13 & 9) and PF Purify (13) also scored in double digits. Starting PG McCormick had nine points and four assists. Auburn snuck into the bottom of AP's preseason poll at No. 24, while Davidson was unranked. However, many think (including myself), that the Wildcats could easily be a top-25 team this season. For those "in the know," it should NOT go unnoticed that the Blue Ribbon CBB Yearbook ranked Davidson 17th! Auburn struggled against Ga Southern on Tuesday, most notably turning the ball over 21 times (averaged just 11.7 TOs per game last season). Bob McKillop starts his 31st season as Davidson's head coach and he's had quite a run (578-350 overall, with nine NCAA teams). His best-known team was the 2007-08 edition, when Steph Curry led the Wildcats into the Elite 8. Not ready to say this year's team can match that one but the Wildcats are the A-10's best team and I expect they will be NCAA-bound. Expect the Wildcats to earn a "quality win" right out of the gate. Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-19 | Thunder v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 8:35 ET. The San Antonio Spurs opened the season 3-0 but the team's 0-3 ATS start was a sign that everything wasn't "quite right." Right on cue, San Antonio dropped three of its next four games (1-3 ATS), with its lone win and cover coming over the depleted Golden St Warriors. The Spurs are hoping to bounce back during a three-game homestand that starts tonight with the 3-4 OKC Thunder coming to San Antonio. The Thunder are looking for their first road win (0-2 SU & 1-1 ATS) but are coming off back-to-back victories at home, beating the Pelicans 115-104 on Saturday and the Magic 102-943 on Tuesday. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that OKC was in the NBA Finals, led by Durant, Westbrook and Harden (it was 2012). Harden left that year as a FA to sign with Houston. Durant famously left to sign a FA deal with Golden St in 2016 and then this past offseason, Westbrook was traded to Houston (note: George was traded to the Clippers, as well). It's a 'Whole New World' these days for the Thunder, who trying to develop a defensive identity. So far, it seems to be working, as OKC is allowing 100.7 PPG (3rd), while leading the NBA in defensive FG percentage (40.3) and three-point percentage (27.3). Speaking of "new," the team's top-four scorers are in the first season with the Thunder. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (22.1-6.6-3.1) leads the way, followed by Gallinari (17.7 & 4.7), Paul (15.6-3.4-4.7) and Schroder (13.6-5.3-3.9). San Antonio's "Big 3" is a thing of the past, although guard Derozan (20.6-4.9-4.1) and PF Aldridge (16.1 & 6.7) give the team a solid "Big 2." FIVE more players are averaging in double digits with Forbes (14.6), White (12.4), Murray (12.2-8.0-4.7) and Mills (11.9) joining DeRozan to give San Antonio a strong perimeter group. SF Gay (11.7 & 7.6) has been solid off the bench up front, while Tre Lyles starts at center, averaging 3.7 PPG but 8.3 RPG in just about 20 minutes (note: Lyles has pulled down double-digit rebounds in two of the last three games). Pop-coached teams used to be known for defense but these days, the Spurs are a middle-of-the-road defensive team (109.6 PPG allowed ranks 14th). San Antonio has a 63-23 all-time record against the Thunder franchise at home and the home team has won the last seven meetings between these two teams. Does that mean all that much? I'm not sure it does. However, let's look at the "new-look" Thunder's three wins in the current season. ALL have come at home and the victories have come over the 2-6 Warriors, 1-6 Pelicans and 2-6 Magic. Those three teams are a combined 5-18 (.218) SU, going 6-16-1 ATS (27.3%). This is not your father's Spurs but I expect them to easily avoid a a third straight loss by earning a "W' and with a modest impost, grab the ATS win, as well.. Good luck...Larry
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 8:20 ET. The 4-5 LA Chargers and the 4-4 Oakland Raiders are still both 'alive' for a playoff spot in the AFC but both teams will need to finish strong. The Chargers opened 2-5 but eked out a 17-16 win at Chicago in Week 8 and then played their best game of the year in beating the Packers 26-11 in LA last Sunday (Green Bay entered the game 7-1). The Chargers dominated the first half on both sides of the ball gained 250 yards in the first half, while holding the Packers to just 50 yards. However, LA led just 9-0, before RB Gordon added two rushing TDs and PK Badgley kicked a fourth FG for a 15-point win. The Raiders went just 4-12 in 2018, in Jon Gruden's 1st year back as the team's head coach. All in all, Oakland has to be happy to be 4-4 midway through its 16-game schedule, as after opening with two home games (a win over Denver and a loss to KC), the Raiders played their next FIVE games away from home (four road games and a contest in London). Oakland's game last Sunday against the Lions was the team's first home game since Sep 15. The Raiders needed a last-second goal-line stand to hold off Detroit 31-24 but moved within a game of the sixth and final playoff slot. "I love this place. It's special," QB Derek Carr said of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. "To come home in front of them and get a win, especially the way we did it. It would be nice to win something 40-0 some time. But when you win one like this, it does so many good things for a team." LA fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt following the team's 17-16 victory in Chicago and in last Sunday's win over Green Bay, there was clearly more of an effort to run the ball. Melvin Gordon ran for 80 yards and two TDs, while Austin Ekeler added 70 yards, as the Chargers established a season-high of 159 yards rushing against Green Bay. Rivers threw for 294 yards on a season-low 28 attempts but as noted above, the result was LA's best game of the year. Rivers is averaging 292.6 YPG through the air and is well on his way to another 4,000-yard passing season (his 11th in the L12 years) but he's got a modest 12-7 TD-to-INT ratio. LA's defense has been solid all season, ranking 8th in both points allowed (18.7 per) and total D (322.8 YPG). Rumors were that Gruden and QB Carr were not quite on the same page but Derek Carr is having an excellent season, completing 71.2% for an average of 251.4 YPG with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs (105.1 QB rating). Rookie RB Jacobs (from Alabama) is blossoming into a star, rushing for 740 yards on 4.9 YPA with six TDs. Carr has capable WRs in Williams (23 catches / 15.4 YPC / 5 TDs) and Renfro (24 catches / 10.7 YPC / 2 TDs) but his "go-to" guy has been TE Darren Waller, who leads the team with 48 catches and 548 receiving yards. Oakland's D has been a problem, allowing 27.0 PPG (26th) and an NFL-high 299.9 YPG. Los Angeles has won four in a row in the series (including a pair of double-digits victories by a combined 46-16 last season) but Oakland is NOT a 4-12 team in 2019. I'm not ready to accept that the Chargers' rushing attack is now back on track because of ONE game, as after all, the Chargers rank 28th in the NFL by averaging 79.4 YPG on the ground on a 3.6 YPA. Meanwhile, Oakland's Jacobs has become the first rookie since Cincinnati's Ickey Woods to rush for two TDs three times in his first eight contests, while to leading a running game averaging 136.4 YPG on the ground (4th). Jacobs and Oakland's OL, which has permitted only one sack the last four weeks, have sure helped Derek Carr in playing mistake-free football. Carr has nine TDs and just one INT over his last five games, while posting QB ratings of 119.2, 125.0 and 116.2 in his last three. This is a HUGE game for the Raiders, as after the Chargers, they play the Bengals (0-8) and Jets (1-7). Beat the Chargers and the Raiders could reasonably be 7-4 through 11 games! Good luck...Larry |
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11-07-19 | Temple -1 v. South Florida | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Temple at 8:00 ET. Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF have put what could have been a special season for the Owls on 'life-support.' The USF Bulls went 11-2 (2016) and 10-2 (2017) but after a 7-0 start in 2018, finished with SIX straight losses. The Bulls opened the 2019 season 1-3 but have rebounded by winning THREE of four to reach 4-4 Temple’s vet QB Russo (1,873 passing yards / 16-8 ratio) has thrown for just 370 yards in the Owls' back-to-back losses, while Temple's ground game was non-existent (114 yards on 1.6 YPA). Temple does have two solid RBs in Davis (655 yards on 4.9 YPA) and Gardner (405 yards on 4.0 YPA), with both scoring five times. It's hard NOT seeing them being able to run against South Florida rush D allowing 199.2 YPG (103rd). Temple's D has been gored the last two games but in the team's 5-1 start, had allowed a modest 19.0 PPG. USF has used two QBs this season and neither has been effective. Barrett is completing 51.9% with four TDs and two INTs and McCloud is completing 55.6% with 10 TDs and six INTs. The Bulls ran for for 347 yards in beating East Carolina 45-20 but the Pirates are an awful defensive team, allowing 204.3 YPG on the ground. USF's four wins have come over South Carolina St (FCS) plus UConn, ECU and BYU. The BYU victory is the team's "marquee win" and note that the Cougars are only 4-4 (Bulls won just, 27-23 in Tampa). UConn and ECU are a combined 5-13. USF has has averaged 43.8 PPG in the team's four victories but just 8.5 PPG in losing to Wisconsin, Ga Tech, SMU and Navy. USF led 17-0 at the half last year at Temple, but the Owls came back to win 27-17, with QB Russo passing for 264 yards. I'm looking for Temple to 'shake off' its back-to-back losses and avoid the team's first three-game losing streak since 2014 (Owls' last non-bowl team, which finished 6-6). Temple becomes bowl-eligible with a win here and could be well on its way to matching, or surpassing, last year's eight wins. Good luck...Larry |
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11-06-19 | Cincinnati v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 56-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Ohio St at 8:30 ET. Ohio St and Cincinnati met in last year's season opener with the Buckeyes winning 64-56 at Cincinnati. It was the first regular-season meeting in 98 years, as the school's renewed a dormant in-state rivalry. The two school's open their respective 2019-20 seasons again on Wednesday night, this time in Columbus. The Bearcats are off a 28-7 season, while making their NINTH straight NCAA appearance. However, head coach Mick Cronin has "taken his talents" to Westwood (UCLA), after a terrific 13-year run at Cincinnati. Taking over will be John Brannen, who comes from No. Kentucky, where he won 20-plus games in each of the last three seasons, earning the Norse NCAA bids in 2017 and 2019. Ohio St's Chris Holtmann took over at Butler for Brad Stevens and three NCAA bids later, got the job in Columbus. His first season was a 25-win one but last year, while the Buckeyes did get an NCAA bid, they lost in the first round to finish just 20-15. Senior guard Jarron Cumberland, was the 2019 American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, averaging 18.8-4.4-3.6 assists. He was the ONLY Cincy player to score in double digits. Guards Jenifer and Broome (8.6 & 8.3 PPG) have graduated and the 6-11 Brooks (8.1 & 6.3) transferred to Miami. Returning starters joining Cumberland are senior 6-8 forward Tre Scott (9.3 & 6.9) and junior guard Keith Williams (9.9 & 3.2). However, the Bearcats do have an influx of roster additions including 7-1 transfer Chris Vogt, who followed Brannen from Northern Kentucky plus two highly regarded freshman guards, Zach Harvey and Mika Adams-Woods.Throw in Jarron Cumberland's cousin Jaevin, a graduate transfer from Oakland (17.2 PPG) and the Bearcats will again be a top-contender in the AAC. The centerpiece of Ohio St's team this season will be will be 6-9 junior center Kaleb Wesson, a preseason All-Big Ten pick who shed some weight and could offer more mobility this season (he averaged 14.6 & 6.9 LY). Wesson led the Buckeyes with 23 points and seven rebounds in Ohio State's 95-52 exhibition victory over Division II Cedarville on Oct 30 plus Holtmann saw 5-star freshman recruit PJ Carlton score 15 points. Carlton is a PG but so is FSU transfer CJ Walker (he started for FSU's Elite 8 team in 2017). Ohio St will have a deep backcourt with Carlton and Walker plus returning guards Woods (8.1), Muhammad (7.6) and Washington (7.0). The 6-8 Young (6.0 & 4.4) joins Wesson up front, along with freshman Gaffney (6-9) and Diallo (6-10). Cincinnati's trip to Ohio State marks the teams' first game in Columbus since 1921 and the Bearcats' first opener on the road since 2001 at Oklahoma.What's more, Cincy takes the court with a new head coach for the first time in 14 years! As for Ohio State, the Buckeyes begin a challenging non-conference schedule that includes No. 10 Villanova at home, No. 11 North Carolina on the road, No. 2 Kentucky (now likely No. 1 after the MSU win!) in Las Vegas and West Virginia in Cleveland. However, Ohio St was 12-1 with its non-conference schedule last season, before struggling in the Big Ten. Cincinnati was a 28-win team last season, yet couldn't beat a lesser Ohio St team than it will face here, losing 64-56 at home. The Bearcats first visit to Columbus since 1921, "doesn't end well!" Good luck...Larry
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11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons -4.5 | Top | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Det Pistons at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry this season but health will play a big factor. Poor health has already played a HUGE factor in Detroit's 3-5 start, as guards Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Reggie Jackson (back) were on the sidelines when the Pistons lost 115-99 at Washington on Monday plus Blake Griffin (hamstring) has yet to make his season debut. The Pistons welcome the NY Knicks to Detroit on Wednesday, who enter the contest with the worst record in the Eastern Conference (1-6) including an 0-4 mark on the road. New York fell behind by 26 points after three quarters at home against Sacramento on Sunday before falling 113-92. That embarrassing loss followed an excellent effort Friday in Boston, when the Knicks lost just 104-102. Forward Marcus Morris (17.9 & 5.4) scored 28 points in the loss to the Kings, but the other frontcourt starters, Julius Randle and Bobby Portis, combined for 10 points on 5-for-19 shooting. Randle scored 25 points in NY's season opener but has since averaged 11.5 PPG on shooting 38.4 percent from the floor, while missed all 14 of his three-point attempts.Portis is averaging 10.4 & 7.7. Rookie guard RJ Barrett (18.3 & 6.1) leads the team in scoring and had 22 points in the loss to the Kings, but he is 17-for-48 from the floor (35.4%) over the last three games, plus is 3-for-15 (20.0%) from three-point range over the last four. Remember Frank Ntilikina, the 8th pick of the 20187 Draft? He's averaging less than 20 minutes while averaging 3.2 PPG on 29.6% shooting (23/2% on threes). Detroit has played its first eight games this season without Griffin, who is still waiting for medical clearance after rehabbing hamstring and knee injuries. Starting point PG Reggie Jackson will miss at least a month of action due to a stress reaction in his lower back plus Jackson's backups, Derrick Rose (hamstring) and Tim Frazier (shoulder), have missed the past two games. However, the makeshift backcourt of Luke Kennard and Bruce Brown has been a bright spot for Detroit, as the pair is averaging a combined 42 points and 11.5 assists over the last two contests. Kennard has back-to-back 24-point efforts and is shooting 46 percent from beyond the arc overall and is now averaging 17.4 PPG on the season. Center Andre Drummond saw his 20-20 streak come to an end at three games in Monday's loss but he still managed his NBA-leading eighth straight double-double (15 & 24) ) out of the gate. Drummond's been a 'beast,' averaging 21.3 & 19.4! "It's the NBA. There are no excuses," Detroit head coach Dwane Casey told reporters after his depleted team scored just 38 second-half points on Monday. "We got enough guys in that room to compete, to fight." While Jackson will miss several more weeks, Rose is day-to-day and Griffin has indicated he is close to playing his first game. The good news is, the Knicks should (will) provide a soft landing spot for the Pistons, as they won and covered all FOUR meetings with the Knicks last season. "The Price is Right," and I'm "all over" Detroit! Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Michigan State v. Kentucky +3 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* No. 1 vs No. 2 Showdown in on Kentucky at 9:30 ET. For only the second time in NCAA Division I history, the No. 1 and 2 teams will open their seasons against each other, as No. 1 Michigan State takes on No. 2 Kentucky in the Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden in New York on Tuesday. The Spartans are coming off a run to the Final Four last season and were voted the AP's preseason No. 1 time for the first time in school history. Kentucky reached the Elite Eight of the 2019 NCAA Tournament and is ranked No. 2 in the AP poll, the NINTH straight top-five preseason ranking for the Wildcats (who says One-and-Done can't work?). The leader of Tom Izzo's squad is senior PG Cassius Winston, who averaged 18.8 points and 7.5 assists in winning Big Ten Player of the Year honors a season ago. The 6-8 Xavier Tillman emerged in the second half of the season in 2018-19, finishing with averages of 10.0 points and 7.3 rebounds. MSU also expected SG Joshua Langford (15.0 PPG before getting hurt last season) to be back but his ankle is now expected to keep him out until mid-January. Gone are the 6-9 Ward (12.9 & 6.1), tje 6-7 Goins (7.9 & 8.9) and SG McQuaid (9.8). Winston is getting lots of "pub" (Blue Ribbon named him Player of the Year) but Kentucky also has an outstanding returning PG in Ashton Hagans, who is the team leader in points, assists and steals among returnees. There is a lot of buzz for Hagans' backcourt partner, freshman Tyrese Maxey, a McDonald's All-American who was named to the All-SEC preseason second team before he's stepped on the court. However, like MSU, Kentucky lost guards Herro (14.o) and Johnson (13.5) plus forwards Washington (15.2 & 7.2) and Travis (11.2 & 7.2). The key for me here is that Calipari has become the 'master' of the One-and-Done era and as he has in the past, quickly sees his team mesh. The starting-five will consist of two freshmen and two sophomores, plus graduate transfer Nate Sestina from Bucknell. He figures to be a welcome addition, as he will provide some needed experience. The 6-9 forward averaged 15.8 points and a Patriot League-best 8.5 rebounds a season ago,. I think MSU is a bit overrated. The Spartans lost a lot (see above), will NOT get Langford back as expected (until 2020) and additionally, 6-6 forward Kyle Ahrens (4.7 & 2.5) is nursing a high ankle sprain. I'm calling for a Kentucky "W" and will take the points. Don't call it an upset. Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Heat v. Nuggets -4.5 | Top | 89-109 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Den Nuggets at 9:05 ET. Jimmy Butler missed the first three games of the season for the Heat (attending the birth of his child) but returned to score 21 points on Oct 29, as the Heat routed the Hawks in Miami, 112-97. He was held to just five points in a rematch with Atlanta on Oct 31 (Heat won in Atlanta) and then scored a modest 18 as the Heat beat the Rockets, 129-100 in Miami. That contest is notable in that the Heat sprinted to a 46-14 first-quarter lead, with the 32-point margin being the third largest in the shot-clock era! The 5-1 Heat open a three-game road trip tonight in Denver, taking on the 4-2 Nuggets. Denver opened 3-0 but then lost 109-106 at home to Dallas, before losing 122-107 at New Orleans on Halloween (more in a bit). Denver struggled to find an offensive rhythm in Saturday's 91-87 road win at the Orlando Magic, as it shot just 37 percent from the floor. Miami has opened well, notably posting an impressive overtime win at Milwaukee in the second game of the season without Jimmy Butler. EIGHT Miami players are averaging double figures in scoring and the big offseason acquisition, Butler, is just sixth on the team at 14.7 PPG, after missing the first three games of the season. Some bad news could be that Justise Winslow (14.8-8.5-5.8) is questionable (back), after sitting out the last two games. The team's guard play has been outstanding, with undrafted rookie Nunn (played at Oakland) leading the way by averaging 19.5 PPG, joined by vet Dragic (16.2 & 4.2 APG) and Kentucky rookie Herro (15.7 & 6.0). Murray (18.5-4.8-3.5) is leading the Nuggets in scoring, while Jokic (15.8-10.5-6.0) is right behind him. Denver is without question, the NBA's deepest team (at least 10-deep) and former HS prodigy Michael Porter Jr could lend a helping hand, as he made his NBA debut with 15 points on Halloween. Speaking of that Halloween game, head coach Michael Malone didn't hold back when he ripped his team's performance in that blowout loss at New Orleans. He called out the effort and commitment to defense, and the players responded with a win at Orlando two days later. The Nuggets were a 'sexy' pick to go deep in the playoffs in the 2019-20 season but so far they haven't shown any killer instinct in Denver. They needed overtime to beat the Phoenix Suns in their home opener and then got outworked by the Dallas Mavericks in a home loss a few nights later. That said, Denver owned the NBA's best home record last season, going 34-7! Jokic led Denver ins coring (20.1), rebounding (10.8) and assists (7.3) last season and then upped those numbers in 14 postseason games (25.1-13.0-8.4). Jokic is NOT off to a great start (see above), as he entered the Orlando contest averaging just 10.7 PPG over the previous three contests. Malone made it clear he wants his big man to take more shots. "For us to be at our best we need him to take at least 15 shots a night," Malone said in reference to Jokic taking just 14 total shots in back-to-back losses prior to the win over the Magic. " Denver was 2-0 against Miami last season and has won FOUR of the past five meetings. I'm pretty 'high' on this Denver team and it is overdue for a breakout home game. How about tonight? Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Kent State v. Toledo -7 | Top | 33-35 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 7:00 ET. The Kent State Golden Flashes do not have much of football hiistory, unless you consider the school's ineptness, noteworthy. Darrell Hazzell led KSU to an 11-3 season in 2012, the school's first winning season since 2001 (6-5). FYI, prior to 2001, KSU had 13 consecutive losing seasons. Hazzell used that 2012 season to get the job at Purdue and by the way, he was fired after 3 1/2 seasons in which he was 9-33. Getting back to KSU, the Golden Flashes have had SIX straight losing season since Hazzell jumped ship, including current head coach Sean Lewis' 2-10 record in 2018 (his first at the school). The Golden Flashes are 3-5 here in 2019. In stark contrast, Toledo has had 21 winning seasons in its last 25. The Rockets entered the current season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 5-3, is well on their way to another winning season and bowl appearance in 2019. Both schools have been off since Oct 26, as the month of November brings "MACtion,"with the conference playing a plethora of non-Saturday games through the day after Thanksgiving. Head coach Sean Lewis started the season with Woody Barrett under center but he was quickly replaced by junior Dustin Crum, a decision that has turned out well. Crum is completing 67.0% for 1,345 yards with 10Tds and just one INT. He is also the team's leading rusher, as KSU is averaging a middle-of-the-road 170.8 YPG on the ground (61st). Kent is averaging only 23.9 PPG (100th) on 365.8 YPG (96th). Defensively, KSU is allowing 30.9 PPG (93rd) on 467.8 YPG (119th). Toledo has some QB issues, as both Mitchell Guadagni and Carter Bradley are dealing with injuries. Toldeo turned Eli Peters in its last game and Peters completed 9 of 18 for just 138 yards but threw two TDs and zero INTs (note: Peters threw 18 TDs vs 7 INTs in 2018). RB Bryant Koback ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and he has run for 985 yards on the season (6.6 YPC and 8 TDs). Toledo ranks 13th in rushing, averaging 245.0 YPG. Toledo is NOT in good shape in the highly competitive MAC West but Toledo faces an excellent matchup here, as its excellent running game (see above) faces a KSU rush D which is allowing 128th in the nation at 250.9 YPG. Kent St is 1-4 SU on the road in 2019, getting outscored on average, 36.2-to-17.4 PPG. This marks Kent's first game against a West opponent in 2019 and it can't be ignored that the Golden Flashes are just 1-12 vs West opponents going back to 2014. Series history reveals that Toledo has won 11 of 13 vs Kent since 1988 and that Kent has not won at Toledo since 1977! I noted earlier that Toledo has posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and the Rockets entered the current season 43-12 SU at home . The Rockets are 4-0 SU and ATS at home in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 35.2-to-19.8 PPG. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry |
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11-05-19 | Kansas -2 v. Duke | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
My NCAAB 10* Season Tip-Off is on Kansas at 7:00 ET. Duke reached the 30-win mark for the 15th time in 39 years under Coach K in 2018-19 but despite being led by three top-10 picks in the 2019 NBA Draft, the Blue Devils fell short of a national championship, falling to Michigan State in the Elite Eight. Kansas know more than a little about failing to meet expectations last season, as the Jayhawks did not win the Big 12 for the first time in 15 years, then bowed out of the NCAA Tournament in the Round of 32 against Auburn. Kansas enters this contest No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll and Duke checks in at No. 4. Duke owns a 7-5 series advantage over Kansas but the Jayhawks have won the last THREE meetings, including an Elite Eight overtime thriller at the end of the 2017-18 season. However, only two players from each side that played in that game remain on the roster of their respective teams (turnover is the rule in college hoops these days). Kansas had its season disrupturd early on last year, as center Udoka Azubuike was limited to nine games in 2018-19 due to a torn ligament in his right hand,. However, he's back healthy (averaged 13.0 & 7.0 in his last full season) and it should not go unnoticed that he was voted Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year by the league's coaches. Devon Dotson (12.3 PPG) was also a preseason all-conference first-team selection, after withdrawing his name from NBA Draft consideration this summer. Key new additions are Iowa graduate transfer Isaiah Moss (9.2 PPG and 42.1% from three-point range last season) plus when Michigan head coach John Beilein left for the NBA this summer, Self was able to land the highly-touted Jalen Wilson. The 6-8 freshman will help ease the loss of the 6-9 Dedric Lawson (19.4 & 10.3). PG Tre Jones (9.4 & 5.3 APG) was the only one of the four, five-star recruits from last season's recruiting class to delay his NBA dream (Zion, RJ and Cam all left. Jones is expected to be the only non-freshman starter on this year's team. Vernon Carey Jr. was ranked as the sixth-best recruit in the nation and gives the Blue Devils an interior presence at 6-10 and 275 pounds. that only Zion Williamson was typically able to provide a season ago. The 6-9 Matthew Hurt was Duke's other five-star from the most recent recruiting class, after averaging 36.8 points, 12.4 rebounds and five assists as a senior en route to being named Minnesota's Mr. Basketball. Checking the history books, Duke is the only one of the four programs (Kansas, Kentucky and Michigan State are the others) with a winning record in this event at 5-3. However, it has lost both times it has faced Kansas (2013, 2016). As for Kansas, it has won its Champions Classic game in each of the past THREE seasons. Azubuike's return is a BIG deal, as the Jayhawks have won 47 of 56 career games. as for the Blue Devils, Duke used 11 players in the opening eight minutes of its second exhibition game, so will will have to see if Coach K has settled on which combinations to use. It could take some time. Kansas is the play! Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYG at 8:15 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened the season 3-0, averaging 32.3 PPG. However, the Dallas offense then got shut down in a 12-10 loss at New Orleans, fell behind the Packers 28-0 in a 34-24 home loss and followed that contest with a shocking 24-22 loss at the then-winless NY Jets! All of a sudden, the Cowboys looked like a fraud. However, Dallas responded with a dominating 37-10 home win over the Eagles in a Week 7 SNF contest. Dallas had last week off and returns here for a MNF game vs long-time rival, the NY Giants. The Giants benched Eli after Week 2 and rookie Daniel Jones led them to two straight wins, 32-31 at Tampa Bay and then 24-3 at home over Washington. However,New York comes in on a FOUR-game losing streak, after dropping a 31-26 decision to Detroit last Sunday. The 4-3 Cowboys look to record their THIRD straight season sweep of the New York Giants on Monday night, after beating them 35-17 back on Sep 8 (Week 1). Dak Prescott has been under center for each of Dallas' last five starts against New York, including throwing for 405 yards and a career high-tying four TDs back in Week 1. Prescott is completing 70.6% for 2,213 yards with 12 TDs and seven INTs (102.6 QB rating). RB Ezekiel Elliott ended his preseason holdout just in time to find the end zone in the opener versus New York and he's scored in SIX of Dallas' in seven games. He ran for 111-yards against the Eagles and has 602 rushing yards on 4 .5 YPC with six TDs on the season. "I think I've gotten into the groove," Elliott said. "The last game was the best I felt this season, so build on top of that and keep that thing going."The Dallas D is allowing 17.7 PPG (5th) on 324.1 YPG (9th). Jones, the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft, starred in his first career start (Week 3 at Tampa Bay), . However, he then averaged 197.8 YPG passing with a 4-7 ratio over his next four games (NYG went 1-3). Yes, the Giants lost last Sunday at Detroit, but Jones joined Prescott as the ONLY rookie QBs with two games of 300-plus yards, two-plus TD and zero INTs in NFL history, after he threw for 322 yards and four TDs vs the Lions. RB Saquon Barkley’s return to health (136 rushing yards and 87 receiving yards on 11 catches the last two games) has given the G-Men balance plus WR Sterling Shepard and CB Corey Ballentine are both expected to return to action, as each player was a full participant in practice this week. My take is that the Cowboys are nothing more than an average team and they enter this Monday matchup fat and happy, having destroyed their lone rival to the NFC East Division 37-10 in Week 7. I'm NOT sure having a bye week after that win was helpful and let's NOT forget that Dallas entered the game vs Philly off THREE straight losses. The Cowboys make a return to "the scene of the crime," the team's low moment of 2019 in which Dallas lost on this same MetLife field to the Jets on Oct 13 (see above). Barkley's healthy, WR Tate has 20 catches for 267 yards in his last three games (back from a suspension) and now Shephard rejoins the team, after catching 25 passes in the first four games of 2019. Take the points, as a win will "not come easy" for Dallas, if at all. Good luck...Larry |
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11-04-19 | Pelicans v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 125-135 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season (Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). The Nets surprised last season going 42-40, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. However, the Nets have struggled out of the gate by going 2-4 but hope to pick up a home win against another sub-.500 team before beginning a challenging road trip. That opportunity comes Monday against the visiting New Orleans Pelicans, who are 1-5 (only the 1-6 Knicks are worse). A.D. wanted out of New Orleans and the Pelicans traded him to the Lakers. The Pelicans remain without No. 1 overall pick Zion Williamson (out until mid-Dec) and starting center Derrick Favors (8.7 & 6.3) has missed the last three games with a knee injury. The Pelicans opened 0-4 of the season but last Thursday upset the Nuggets 122-107, with a complete effort that included the return of guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7 LY) . He scored 19 points and went 5-of-9 from three-point range in Thursday's win. However, the Pelicans lost 115-104 at OKC on Saturday, when leading scorer Brandon Ingram left the contest with a head injury. Ingram (23.5-7.5-4.2), Hart (13.5 & 7.7) and Ball (12.0-5.0-7.3) came from the Lakers in the deal for Davis. Ingram is listed as probable but Favors is more of a question. If he does not play Monday, Jahlil Okafor likely will be the starting center for the third straight game (Okafor has 41 points and 17 rebounds in his two starts). Irving (30.5-6.5-7.5) recorded his third career triple-double with 20 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists in Saturday's. He's joined by fellow guards Caris LeVert (1318.8-4.5-3.5) and Spencer Dinwiddie (15.2 & 5.0 APG). Joe Harris led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and is averaging 14.3 PPG and shooting 57.1% on threes, so far. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and he's averaging 15.5 & 6.3. Allen (7.7 & 9.7) and Jordan (6.5 & 1.0) have each made three starts at center (they form a solid duo). Here's the deal. The Pelicans are a poor defensive team, allowing 122.5 PPG (29th) on the season and have opened 0-3 on the road, allowing 123.7 PPG. The Nets upset Houston 123-116 here on Friday but then blew a 14-point lead at Detroit on Saturday, in the second contest of their first back-to-back set of the season. Back at home, the Nets figure to have few problems with the struggling New Orleans Pelicans. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 94-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the LA Clippers at 9:05 ET. The LA Clippers strongly believe that the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George make them STRONG contenders for an NBA championship this season. George is not expected to be ready until mid-November and until then (and likely all season), the Clippers will manage Leonard's workload. The 4-2 Clippers "did just that" last Thursday in Salt Lake City, resting Leonard for Friday night's home game with the Spurs. With Leonard 'sitting,' LA hung around until halftime (trailed by one) but then got outscored 38-20 in the third quarter, as the Jazz coasted to 110-96 victory. Lou Williams (in a rare start) scored a team-high 24 points, JaMychal Green had 23 points & 8) and Montrezl Harrell chipped in 10 points but NO other LA reached double figures PG Mike Conley enjoyed a breakout game with his new team in the win over the Clippers, going off for a season-high 29 points on 11-of-17 shooting, including 5-of-8 from three-point range. Leading scorer Donovan Mitchell (24.0 & 4.8) added 24 points in the victory, as the Jazz shot 55.0% as team and scored 110 points. SF Bojan Bogdanovic (20.4) & 4.4) is making a smooth transition to the team while shooting 51.5 percent from the floor and 48.4 percent from beyond the arc but the Jazz are known for defense, not offense. Utah ranks first in points allowed (94.0 PPG) but although the Jazz are shooting 47.4% from the floor (5th), they are averaging only 101.0 PPG (27th). It's more than fair to say that Leonard and the Clippers are expecting a different outcome (from Thursday in SLC) when they host the Jazz on Sunday. Leonard was rested against the Jazz but the next night, 'dropped' 38 points on the Spurs (that had to feel good), as the Clippers remained unbeaten (3-0) at home. Leonard leads the team in scoring (29.2 points), rebounds (7.6) and assists (6.2). His play-making in the absence of a true PG on the roster is a big bonus for Los Angeles. "Kawhi's been easy to integrate," Clippers head coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "You just give him the ball. I'm no fool. But the spacing, what we've learned about Kawhi is how well he sees the floor and the type of passer that he is." Three-time Sixth Man of the Year Lou Williams (20.8 & 5.0 APG) plus forwards Harrell (19.3 & 5.5) and Green (10.0 & 4.7), give the Clippers one of the NBA's deepest and best group of bench players. "Big-time revenge" on tap here and it works well, as the Jazz are 0-3 ATS on the road to open the 2019-20 season. The team's lone road win was in a one-point, non-covering victory at Phoenix.The Jazz are averaging 94.3 PPG on the road and that won't cut it against the revenge-minded Clippers, who shoot an NBA-best 49.6% from the floor, averaging 114.2 PPG. Remember Conley's effort Thursday night against the Clippers (see above for a reminder)? Take away that game and he's shooting 24.1% from the floor, including 20.7% on threes. Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 53 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the Bal Ravens at 8:20 ET. |
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11-03-19 | Colts v. Steelers +1 | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error G.O.M. is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Most felt that Andrew Luck's sudden retirement (he stunned his teammates and the rest of the league by announcing his retirement near the end of training camp), pretty much meant a 'lost' 2019 season for the Indianapolis Colts. However, the Colts play their eighth game of a 16-game schedule with a 5-2 record. The Colts sit a half-game ahead on the Texans in the AFC South, with the Jags and Titans lurking at 4-4. The Colts are hoping to push their winning streak to four in a row when they visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. Pittsburgh knows all about losing a starting QB, a Big Ben was lost for the season in Week 2. The Steelers opened 0-3 but have won THREE of four and with the 5-2 Ravens hosting the 8-0 Pats Sunday night, the Steelers could close within a half-game of 1st in the AFC Central with a win and a Baltimore loss. Forget Baltimore, a win puts Pittsburgh very much alive in the AFC wild card race at the midpoint of the season. Indianapolis is becoming accustomed to executing late with the game on the line. The Colts' three-game winning streak has come with victories over Kansas City, Houston and Denver (average MOV just 5.0 PPG). QB Jacoby Brissett is completing 64.5% for 1,590 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs. Indy's OL is very good, paving the way to an average of 128.4 YPG on the ground (11th), led by Marlon Mack's 590 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). Pittsburgh is starting getting its offense settled behind QB Mason Rudolph, who threw for 251 yards with two TDs and no INTs in Monday's win over the Dolphins. RB James Conner ran for 145 yards and a touchdown. However, he injured his shoulder late in the game and his status against the Colts is uncertain at best. The good news is that Jaylen Samuels returned to practice this week and is expected to play Sunday (he hasn't played since undergoing knee surgery on Oct 7). More notably, the Steelers continue to improve on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 3.8 YPC, thanks to Michigan rookie LB Devin Bush. The Colts are 5-2 but this team is no better than average both offensively (22.6 PPG ranks 16th and 345.9 YPG ranks 18th) and defensively (21.6 PPG allowed ranks 14th and 349.4 YPG allowed ranks 15th). Mike Tomlin believes the Steelers have already endured the worst of what 2019 has to offer and QB Rudolph showed Monday that he has the ability to be much more than just a caretaker (something Brisset can relate to). The Steelers own the third-best home record since 2001 (106-41-1) and the Colts haven't had a winning road record since 2004 (Colts entered 2019 with a 13-19 SU road mark). At this price, Pittsburgh is a STRONG play! Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Vikings v. Chiefs +4 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Minnesota Vikings lost 16-6 at Chicago in Week 4, falling to 2-2. In the aftermath of that loss, there were rumblings that the Vikings were depending too much on RB Dalvin Cook and not using their passing game to the fullest. Whether that was the spark or not, Kirk Cousins averaged 325.7 YPG passing with 10 TDs and just one INT the next three games, as the Vikings went 3-0 SU & ATS while averaging 36.0 PPG. Minnesota made it FOUR straight wins in Week 8, although that "W'" in a fairly listless effort over the sad-sack Redskins (Minnesota won 19-9). The Vikings are 6-2 and trail 7-1 Green Bay in the NFC North but also have themselves in excellent wild card position, as they visit Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs opened the season 4-0 behind the marvelous Patrick Mahomes but then got shocked 19-13 at home by the Colts in Week 5 (SNF). A 31-24 home loss to Houston followed and then at Denver in Week 7 (Thursday night), Mahomes dislocated his kneecap. Matt More took over and played well enough for KVC to easily down the Broncos, 30-6. Mahomes was unable to go in KC's Week 8 game at home vs the Packers (SNF) and the Chiefs lost a close one, 31-24 (more later). Mahomes was limited in practice during this week and in the end was ruled out again for this contest. KC is 5-3 and with no other AFC West team above-.500, (Oakland is 3-4 and in 2nd-place), there is NO need to rush Mahomes back. Dalvin Cook is the league’s leading rusher with 823 yards (5.3 YPC) and an NFL-best nine TDs (Vikings rank 3rd in rushing at 160.1 YPG). Cook also has 29 catches for 293 yards plus WRs Diggs (37 catches / 19.1 YPC / 4 TDs) and Thielen (27 catches / 14.5 YPC / 6 TDs) are also happy now that they are getting more opportunities. Cousins is completing 72.1% for 1,997 yards with 13 TD s and just three INTs. Minnesota's D doesn't remind anyone of "The Purple People Eaters" but it ranks 3rd in allowing 16.5 PPG on 313.9 YPG (5th). KC's defense has been the team's weak spot but the Chiefs have 13 sacks for 128 yards over the past two games, with an increase in pressure dialed up by new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo being a big reason for it. Overall, the defense is now allowing 22.6 PPG, ranking 16th in a 32-team league. It's hard to list KC offensive numbers with Mahomes sitting out. However, Matt Moore has been solid filling in for last year's MVP. He went 10 of 19 for 117 yards with one TD and zero INTs at Denver and then did his best in trying to stay with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers last Sunday night. The hard-fought loss could NOT be blamed on Moore, as he was 24 of 36 for 267 yards with two TDs and again, ZERO interceptions (had a QB rating of 107.1). Kansas City has lost three of its last four (all by seven points or less), with all three losses coming at Arrowhead Stadium (home teams have struggled league-wide in 2019). Ironically, this is the second straight week that KC faces an old Super Bowl foe. It was a SB I rematch last week with Green Bay and this game with Minnesota is a SB IV rematch. The Chiefs famously beat the Vikings 23-7 in the final Super Bowl before the 1970 merger (remember "65 Toss Power Trap?"). Why am I taking the 'injured' Chiefs here? Kirk Cousins can’t be trusted to make tough throws in a hostile road environment (he's NO Aaron Rodgers) and going back to 2016, the Vikings are 0-11-1 SU & ATS (that's a 100% "go against") in outdoor road games vs winning teams. Good enough for me to "take the points," with Hank Stram 'smiling from up above.' Good luck...Larry |
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11-03-19 | Fresno State v. Hawaii -1 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -117 | 83 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Hawaii at 11:55 ET. Jeff Tedford came to in 2017 and led a team which went 1-11 in 2016 to a 10-4 record in 2017and then to a 12-2 record in 2018. However, most anticipated that 2019 would be a rebuilding one for the Bulldogs and that has been the case. Fresno is 3-4 overall (1-2 MWC) and travels to Hawaii off a 41-31 home loss to Colorado St. Hawaii checks in at 5-3 (2-2 in MWC) and this contest with Fresno St opens a stretch in which Hawaii will play FOUR of its final five games at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu (13-game schedule). Fresno State QB Jorge Reyna is completing 62.8% for 1,655 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs.The team has suffered injuries to its RB group and checks in averaging 166.9 YPG (70th). That said, FSU has averaged 33.0 PPG (36th). The problem for FSU in 2019 has been a defense that allowed just 14.1 PPG (2018) and 17.9 (2017), has allowed 31.0 PPG (95th) in 2019. Hawaii QB Cole McDonald is completing 65.5% for 2,521 yards with 24 TDs and 11 INTs (Hawaii ranks 3rd in the nation, averaging 354.5 YPG through the air). Hawaii's defense is even worse than Fresno's, allowing 35.4 PPG (120th) on 437.8 YPG (104th). Fresno has won SEVEN of the last eight meetings but TY's Fresno edition only has wins over Sacramento St (FCS), New Mexico St (0-8) and UNLV (2-6). The Rainbow Warriors have a much more balanced offensive attack and are staring down a bowl bid with this contest, as well as home games with San Jose St and Army still to go. Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | New Mexico v. Nevada -3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 82 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Nevada began 2019 with a 34-31 home upset of Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. The Wolf Pack edged San Jose St 41-38 at home to open October but have since lost 36-10 at Utah St and 31-3 at Wyoming. The Wolf Pack return home this Saturday at 4-4 (1-3 in MWC) to host 2-6 New Mexico (0-4 MWC). The Lobos enter this contest on a five-game slide. Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos beat Sam Houston St (FCS ) and New Mexico St (currently 0-8) in its first three games but as noted above, has now lost FIVE in a row. New Mexico owns a solid running game (211.8 YPG ranks 25th) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 37.6 PPG (126th) on 505.6 YPG (129th). Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii but the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.1 PPG (117th) on 357.2 YPG (100th). However, here's the rub. These schools have met just seven times (series is tied 3-3-1) but the home team is 5-1-1. Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 61-28 SU since 2005 and a victory here puts Nevada just ONE win away from bowl eligibility, with games at Fresno St (3-4) and home to UNLV (2-6) still left on the schedule. As for New Mexico, it's time for Davie to go! Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | Oregon v. USC +5 | Top | 56-24 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET. Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning SEVEN in a row (including a 5-0 start in Pac-12 play). The Ducks outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG in winning the first five games of that streak, then won nail-biters 35-31 at Washington and 37-35 at home over Washington St. USC was unranked in the AP's preseason poll (received just ONE point) but after opening 3-1, including wins over then-No. 23 Stanford and then-No. 10 Utah, the Trojans were ranked 21st when they lost 28-14 at Washington on Sep 29th. USC lost its next game 30-27 at then-No. 9 Notre Dame. USC enters his contest off back-to-back wins over Arizona (41-14) and Colorado (35-31), giving them a modest 5-3 record overall but at 4-1 in the Pac-12 South which puts them in a tie with Utah for the division lead. Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick, with some projecting him being a strong candidate for the top pick . He completing 68.3% for 2,104 yards with 21 TDs and just one INT. He had thrown a TD pass in 35 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, but that steak was broken in last Saturday's win over Washington St. He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (194.4 YPG ranks 42nd, averaging 5.1 YPC). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG (25th) on 470.2 YPG (24th). The defense allowed just 8.7 PPG (on 267.7 YPG) through six games, but after allowing 66 points in its last two wins, Oregon's D is allowing 14.8 PPG (9th) on 310.6 (YPG). Freshman QB Kedon Slovis is one of three starting QBs USC has used in 2019 but the Trojans have to be very happy he's now their No. 1 guy. He ranks second in the Pac-12 and sixth nationally in completion percentage (72.3) and was 30-of-44 for 406 yards, four TDs and an interception in the Trojans 35-31 victory at Colorado last Friday, giving him a 13-5 ratio on the season. His job is made easier by the fact that he has a trio of NFL-caliber WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (50 catches, 755 yards, seven TDs), Tyler Vaughns (50 catches, 638 yards, five TDs) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (40 catches, 432 yards, four TDs). USC's defense is allowing 24.9 PPG (49th) on 429.5 YPG (98th). Oregon almost has the Pac-12 North locked up, while USC is in a tug-of-war with Utah, although USC holds the head-to-head tiebreaker with South Division co-leader Utah by virtue of its 30-23 victory over the Utes on Sep 20th. Oregon is still 'dreaming' it can somehow slip into the CFP Final 4 but USC can burst that bubble with a win here. USC went just 3-3 at home last during 2018's 5-7finish, losing its final three home games. However, USC entered that late-season stretch in 2018 having won 19 straight at the Coliseum. USC is back to dominating at home in 2019, going 4-0 while outscoring opponents 36.8-to-20.0 PPG. Oregon's CFP hopes will be "Gone with the Wind' after this one, while USC moves closer to a rematch with Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game (a Washington win over Utah would help). Good luck...Larry |
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11-02-19 | SMU v. Memphis -4.5 | Top | 48-54 | Win | 100 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Memphis at 7:30 ET. Could anyone have possibly imagined at the start of the 2019 season that this Nov 2 game featuring SMU at Memphis would find ESPN's "GameDay" descending on Memphis for its pregame show. However, that's what we have as 8-0 SMU is one just NINE unbeatens in CFB and carries its No. 15 ranking into the Liberty Bowl to battle 7-1 Memphis, which is ranked 24th. In less than two seasons, Sonny Dykes has done what his seven predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU is off to its best start since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982. Memphis' Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl. The winner of this game will likely hold the "inside track" on a New Years' Day Bowl (highest-ranked school from the Group of Five will earn a berth in the Cotton Bowl). SMU didn't quite meet Dykes' standards last weekend at Houston but the Mustangs never trailed and managed to hold on for a 34-31 victory for their first 4-0 start in conference play since 1986. Texas transfer QB Shane Buechele is completing 63.2% for 2,325 yards (AAC-best 290.6 YPG with 20 TDs and just three INTs. RB Xavier Jones leads SMU with 884 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 15 TDs) for a team averaging 202.8 YPG on the ground (32nd). That nice balance has seen SMU score at least 34 points in every game and enters the contest ranked sixth nationally in scoring offense (43.0 PPG). Defensively, SMU is no better than middle-of-the pack, allowing 27.8 PPG (67th) on 387.5 YPG (60th). Memphis knows all about "close calls," after holding on for a 42-41 comeback victory last weekend, when Tulsa's Jacob Rainey missed a 29-yard FG attempt as time expired. As the press release from Memphis' sports information department noted following that one-point victory, "Sometimes, a memorable season needs the assistance of a fortunate break." RB Kenneth Gainwell posted his sixth consecutive 100-yard game and scored a season-high three TDs for the Tigers. He's got 979 yards on the season (7.1 YPC / 11 TDs) and currently owns an FBS-best average of 177.4 scrimmage yards per game. QB Brady White's numbers rank right with Buechele's, completing 69.0% for 2,014 yards with 20 TDs and just four INTs. The Memphis D is better than SMU's, but not by all that much. Memphis is allowing 23.0 PPG (42nd) on 375.0 YPG (54th). Sure, Memphis was fortunate last week at Tulsa but SMU has also had some good fortune, with FOUR four wins by seven points or less, including a 34-31 win over a 3-5 Houston team last Saturday (note: SMU was outgained 510-385) plus a 43-37 three-OT win back on Oct 5 at HOME, over the same Tulsa team that almost beat Memphis last Saturday (note: Tulsa sits just 2-6). Dykes has done a remarkable job at SMU but this team is 'ripe for the plucking' and Memphis has all the tools to put an end to the Mustangs' perfect season. The Tigers' ONLY loss of 2019 was a two-point one at Temple, when the Tigers committed FOUR turnovers. Memphis has been great at home under Norvell, going 18-4 SU in his tenure, including 4-0 in 2019, outscoring opponents on average, 38.0-to-18.5 PPG. Looking for a 'clincher?' How about two? Memphis has won FIVE straight over SMU (average score 43-13) and under Norvell (1st season was 2016), Memphis is 10-1 SU and ATS (that's 91%), in the month of November, averaging 49.0 PPG. Good luck...Larry |