Matt Josephs NCAA-F Top Picks
Date |
Match Up |
Rating |
Score |
Result |
Profit |
Lead Time |
Analysis |
10-05-19 |
James Madison v. Stony Brook OVER 41 |
Top |
45-38 |
Win
|
100 |
42 h 55 m |
Show
|
I've made so much money betting on the overs in JMU games because for some reason Vegas is tragically underrating the Dukes. JMU has scored 44, 63, 37 and 45 in their FCS games this season. They racked up over 300 yards of rushing in the win over Elon last week and is now playing their third straight road game in a semi sandwich situation. They are coming off a win against the head coach's former school and have a home game against 5th ranked Villanova next week. I have to think this defense which has been fantastic will give up some points. Granted, they've allowed 7, 12, 14 and 10 so far. Stony Brook is 4-1 and is coming off a 31-27 win over Rhode Island last week. They have the best offense in the CAA and are averaging nearly 30 points per contest. Last year's contest was a 13-10 game in Harrisonburg which is a concern, but I think both teams are better in 2019. Give me the over at this really low number. These two defenses could stop the other, but I'll take a shot that the offenses rule the day.
|
09-14-19 |
Akron +3 v. Central Michigan |
Top |
24-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
64 h 29 m |
Show
|
Central Michigan enters this one coming off a 61-0 loss to Wisconsin in a contest that saw them lose quarterback Quinten Dormady and running back Jonathan Ward who are their two best weapons. David Moore will start at quarterback while sophomore Kobe Lewis will work with the first team. Moore came in relief and threw for one yard against the Badgers. CMU just doesn't have the offensive ability to overcome something like this and they have issues on defense. On the other side, it's been a rough start for the Zips who lost to UAB at home and Illinois on the road. Still, there are many picking Akron to win their half of the MAC led by Kato Nelson under center. They played CMU last year and beat them 17-10 at home. The Zips are on the road so that's not great, but I can't imagine there's too much of a homefield advantage for the Chips.
|
09-29-18 |
Mercer v. Virginia Military OVER 57 |
Top |
48-38 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
|
I very rarely dip into the FCS level for my selections, but this one stood out to me. VMI is 0-4 on the season, but their spread offense is starting to take flight. The Keydets put up 50 in a 52-50 loss at Western Carolina last week. This came after they scored 24 at home against East Tennessee State. The problem for them is that their defense has been a major issue allowing 52, 27, 59 and 66 already this season. In comes Mercer who has had some mixed bag results themselves. The Bears beat Jacksonville 45-3 and Samford 30-24 on the road. They also lost 38-31 to the Citadel and 66-14 to Memphis. I think this one is a bit of a shootout. Mercer has been vulnerable to the pass as evidenced by the Memphis and Samford road games. Jacksonville and the Citadel want to run it so the numbers are skewed a bit there.
|