10* Boston (7:08 ET): The Red Sox have now lost five in a row to the Yankees and are tied with them in the Wild Card race. Now both teams can make the playoffs and then face each other in the WC Game. But homefield advantage for said WC Game is still at stake plus you’ve got Toronto and Seattle both lurking not far behind, looking to steal one of the WC spots. This head to head rivalry has taken a dramatic swing in the second half of the season as the Red Sox had won 10 of the first 13 meetings. I’ll take them to avoid the sweep Sunday night as a big play.

It sure looked as if the Red Sox were headed for victory Saturday night. They led 2-1 entering the 8th, which was when disaster (for them) struck and Giancarlo Stanton hit a grand slam. Thus a perfectly good start from Nick Pivetta was wasted. The Yankees finished with only four hits for the game, but when one of them results in four runs scoring, sometimes that’s all you need. Still, you can’t help but feel the home team “should have won.”

The Yankees have won five in a row overall but so had the Red Sox coming into this series. The Sox are 49-31 at Fenway this season while averaging 5.9 runs per game. No team averages more rpg at home. Southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez has a 3.64 ERA since Aug 1. But most important of all, he has a 4-0 TSR this year vs. the Yankees. Meanwhile, I’m not that impressed by how few runs that Yankees starter Jordan Montgomery has given up recently as more often than not, he doesn’t go that deep into games. He has an 0-2 TSR vs. Baltimore this month & a 1-3 TSR vs. Boston in 2021. 10* Boston

8* Miami (4:05 ET): The fact there’s been no real line movement since it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would be starting in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa says a lot. Surprisingly, the line has even come down a bit. I thought the opening number was a bit of an overreaction to Las Vegas’ 2-0 start, which has seen them upset the Ravens and Steelers. This game was listed as pick ‘em on the lookahead line. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses and 10-1 ATS after giving up 30+ points. Take the points.

I really don’t think that the dropoff from Tua to Brissett is that severe. Sure, the Dolphins lost 35-0 last week at home to Buffalo. But Brissett was obviously not expecting to play. Now he gets a full week of practice to face a Raiders’ defense that gave up the second most touchdowns in the entire league last year and over 30 PPG. Vegas is a little lucky to be 2-0 as they beat Baltimore in OT and then Pittsburgh suffered multiple key injuries on defense. This is the first time the Raiders have been favored in 2021. They are just 3-7 ATS L10 as chalk with four outright losses.

Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Flores. They have also won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. the Raiders, including seven of the last eight. Last year, they pulled out a last second 26-25 win to officially eliminate Vegas from playoff contention. I’m just very skeptical of this Raiders team and it’s hard for me to see them moving to 3-0. The Dolphins’ defense will keep them in this game. 8* Miami  

10* NY Jets (4:05 ET): The Jets are not being given much of a chance in this game, and for good reason, but make note of the fact they did outgained New England pretty significantly last week (336-260) despite losing on the scoreboard 25-6. Growing pains were obviously expected here with a rookie coach (Robert Saleh) and QB (Zach Wilson), but the team does need to show SOMETHING this week in Denver. It’s a big spread and I feel comfortable taking the points against an opponent unaccustomed to being this large of a favorite.

Denver was the only team in the league not to be favored a single time in 2020. This year has seen them favored on the road each of the first two games and now laying double digits in the home opener. How rare is this? It’s the first time the Broncos have been double digit favorites since a 2017 game vs. the Giants that they lost outright by 13 points! QB Teddy Bridgewater has an outstanding career ATS mark (37-15-1) but has NEVER been a double digit favorite before. The largest spread he’s faced previous to this one was laying eight points against Carolina in 2018 when he was with the Saints. He lost that game outright.

The biggest problem for the Jets last week was four turnovers. That’s how they lost by 19 despite holding an edge in total yards. In what promises to be a low-scoring game, I think grabbing the points is prudent. Denver has not started 3-0 since 2016. They’ve only averaged 25 points the first two games and despite two double digit wins, this isn’t a team that’s normally going to win big. 0-2 ATS teams have covered at a 60% rate in Week 3 over the last decade. 10* NY Jets

8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer is looking for answers right now as he’s off to an 0-2 start in his professional head coaching career. Jacksonville has lost 17 games in a row going back to last season, the last six all coming by double digits. Now virtually all of that predates Meyer’s tenure here. However, the legendary college coach can certainly ill-afford a third straight DD loss. Predictably, the public is all over the other side (Arizona) in this matchup but I’m seeing some value with the home dog getting more than a touchdown. Take the points.

I understand that taking Jacksonville right now may cause you to hold your nose. But the idea of Arizona laying this many points on the road should bolster your confidence. It’s extremely rare to find the Cardinals as this size of a road favorite. Going all the way back to 1993, it’s happened only TWO times! Situationally, it’s not a great spot for the Cards either as this is their second trip to the Southeast in the first three weeks and they’ve got a big division road game next week at the Rams.

There’s no denying how good Kyler Murray has looked in the first two games, but the Cardinals were very lucky to defeat Minnesota 34-33 last week. The Vikings missed a “chip shot” field goal on the final play of the game to seal the deal. I had the Vikes plus the points (they obviously covered) as Arizona dropped to 3-10 ATS its L13 games as a favorite in any setting. The Jags fall into several key angles that are 60% ATS or better, long term. 8* Jacksonville

8* Washington (1:00 ET): The Football Team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite so far, but let’s try them as a dog this week. They did prevail on the field last Thursday, getting a gift from the inept Giants, who were offsides on the first game-winning FG attempt. After missing that first attempt, Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins then made the G-Men pay on his second try, putting the 43-yarder through the uprights and giving Washington a 30-29 win. I was impressed with the play of QB Taylor Heinicke, who completed 34 of 46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick.

This will be the Bills’ second straight week facing a backup QB. But I think it’s pretty obvious that Heinicke is better than Jacoby Brissett, who was called into emergency duty last week (Tua injured) as Buffalo blitzed Miami 35-0. Remember that Heinicke started last season’s playoff game for Washington and threw for 300+ yards against eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay. The Football Team has also had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to the Bills. That will help Heinicke.

The “mini-bye” should also help a Washington defense that’s gotten off to a surprisingly slow start. This was one of the best defenses in the league a year ago. I know Buffalo scored five touchdowns last week, but three of those drives were 52 yards or shorter. Josh Allen is completing just 56% of his passes so far and is 27th in yards. The Bills’ offensive line was overwhelmed against the Steelers and the Football Team is capable of doing the same. Washington is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog, so this role suits them well. They’ve won three of those five games outright. Take the points. 8* Washington

8* Rayo Vallecano (12:30 ET): The three newly promoted sides in La Liga are all faring better than you’d expect. But Rayo Vallecano is clearly faring the best of the three. Los Vellecanos currently sit sixth in the table, which would be good enough for Europa League qualifying at season’s end, with 10 points taken from the first six matches. After their return to the Spanish top flight began with understandable losses to Sevilla and Real Sociedad, Vallecano is unbeaten its last four and coming off B2B wins. 

Cadiz earned promotion last season and really surprised me with a 12th place finish. The advance metrics clearly said they were fortunate to be a mid-table side as Los Piratas actually finished with the second fewest expected point total (xPts) in the league. I pegged them to regress back towards the relegation zone before this season got underway and again am a bit perplexed at how competitive they’ve been. They just drew Barcelona (0-0) midweek after earning a 2-1 win over Celta Vigo last Friday. 

That said, the win over Celta Vigo represents Cadiz’s lone victory this season. They were dominated in terms of possession by Barca and fortunate that their opponents were down to 10 men after Frenkie de Jong was sent off (red card) in the 65 minutes. So for roughly one-third of the match, Cadiz had a man advantage on the pitch and still couldn’t net a goal. Vallecano didn't get the game-winner until the 96th minute against Athletic Club, but had previously left nothing to chance in dominant wins over Getafe and Granada. They are clearly the better side here and will nab the full three points. 8* Rayo Vallecano

7* Alexander Volkanovski (11:50 ET): This is the main event of UFC 266, scheduled for five rounds between Featherweight Champion Volkanovski and challenger Brian Ortega. Volkanovski is 22-1 overall in his career including a perfect 9-0 in the UFC. Ortega is 15-1 overall and 7-1 in the UFC. I look for the champ to retain Saturday night with a convincing victory. 

Volkanovski is the superior striker here, which should be the difference. Granted he has only had three finishes in the UFC, but the two wins over former champ Max Holloway (a great champ in his own right) were incredibly impressive. Ortega does not have the best defense when it comes to getting hit, so if Volkanovski can execute his game plan, then he’ll be at least winning on the scorecards. 

Ortega is going to look to get this fight on the ground, but the problem with that approach is he only has a 21% takedown success rate. Volkanovski has shown great takedown defense in the past, so he’s not going to go down easily, if he goes down to the mat at all. It’s difficult to look past the fact Ortega was dominated by Holloway, who Volkanovski defeated twice. 7* Alexander Volkanovski