8* San Diego (9:40 ET): Along with the White Sox over in the American League, the Padres have emerged as one of the nice “success stories” of the 2020 MLB season. San Diego is in great shape right now, having scored the 2nd most runs in all of baseball. Their WL record is second only to the Dodgers among all NL teams and their run differential is third best in all of baseball. While they just dropped two of three at home to LA (disappointing), San Diego should find this series against bottom-feeder Seattle quite conducive to success.

A nice edge the Padres have coming into Friday’s opener is that they were off Thursday. Seattle was busy hosting San Francisco yesterday and lost 6-4. The Mariners dropped both games in that series and have lost six of their last nine overall. As was pretty much expected, the M’s are having a rough year as they’ve been outscored by 52 runs, which is the 6th worst differential in all of baseball. They are easily MLB’s “worst third place team” right now.

Oh, by the way - this game is being played in San Diego, NOT Seattle. This is due to ongoing issues with the air out on the West Coast. Again, like having yesterday off, it’s an added advantage the Padres have that they didn’t really need. But we’ll take it! Though they will still come up to bat first, I don't think that's as big a deal as the game taking place in Petco Park where the Padres have gone 19-8 this season. Chris Paddack gets the start. He’ll be looking to get back on track after spraining his ankle on Sept 10. He should be fine facing a Seattle lineup that hasn’t hit well its last eight games. The Mariners go with Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed 4 or more runs in three of his previous five starts. 8* San Diego

7* Cleveland (7:10 ET): So it turns out that all the Indians needed to snap an 8-game losing streak was a matchup with their favorite foe. Since the start of last season, the Tribe is 23-3 vs. the Tigers. They are now 4-0 at Comerica Park in 2020. While they may have struggled as of late, where Cleveland has been exceptional this year is as a road favorite of -125 or higher. They are now 14-2 when priced in that range and they’re back there again tonight as they look to make it two in a row over the hapless Tigers. Look for them to get it done.

Winning last night was no problem for the Indians as they had ace Shane Bieber on the mound (closed -300 on the ML!). Still, it had to feel good to win in 10-3 fashion considering the eight straight losses that preceded last night’s victory. Bieber didn’t allow a run until the 8th (not sure why he was left in when it was 10-0), meaning Detroit had gone 16 consecutive innings w/o scoring a run. The Tigers were also shutout on Wednesday by KC (I had the Royals!), the fourth time they’d been shutout this month. Had they not scored the three “meaningless” runs last night, it would have been the Tigers’ third shutout loss by 10+ runs in the L9 games. This team is sinking fast. 

Zach Plesac may not be Bieber, but he does have a 2.20 ERA and 0.78 WHIP in six starts. I also like his 39-3 KW ratio. Given those numbers, you’d think he’d have a better TSR than 3-3. Plesac is off his worst outing to date, but that was against Minnesota and he should easily bounce back tonight. Michael Fulmer gets the nod here for the Tigers and he still hasn’t won this year in eight tries. He has a 9.27 ERA and 2.149 WHIP to boot. In 10 career starts vs. Cleveland, Fulmer has a 7.46 ERA. 7* Cleveland

8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Kansas City has made a bit of a surprising surge, winning seven of its last eight ball games. I had them Wednesday when they downed the Tigers 4-0, which was their third shutout victory in the last seven games! But coming off consecutive series vs. lightweights Detroit & Pittsburgh, I think the Royals are in for a bit of a “rude awakening” tonight in Milwaukee as they face a Brewers team that has also posted three shutout wins in its L9 games including one the last time they took the field.

The Brew Crew just gone done playing a five-game series with St. Louis which featured two doubleheaders. It should be noted that the teams split both twin bills, but Milwaukee won the one “standalone” game, 18-3. Like the Royals, Milwaukee had Thursday off, which was much needed after playing five games in three days. Unlike the Royals, the Brewers are still very much alive in the playoff race. They should be the more motivated team this weekend.

While Friday starter Adrian Houser is not responsible for any of the Brewers’ three recent shutouts, I do think he’ll pitch well tonight. That might sound like a “leap of faith” considering recent efforts (he’s 0-5 L7 starts) including him being on the WRONG end of a 12-0 loss to the Cubs last Saturday. But five of the seven runs charged to Houser in that one were unearned. Danny Duffy goes for the Royals and it will be interesting to see how he does given an unexpected three extra days off between starts. Duffy was supposed to start Tuesday, but missed the team plane and thus got himself scratched. The bottom line is that KC is just 2-9 this season as a ML road dog of +125 to +175. They are 19-42 in that same range the L3 seasons. 8* Milwaukee