8* Missouri (8:30 ET): Auburn is now ranked #1 for the first time in program history. This puts a big target on their back every game. I know that it’s been a great run of form for Bruce Pearl’s team as they have covered the spread in each of their last eight games. But Tuesday is a total letdown spot as the Tigers are coming off a home win against Kentucky and have Oklahoma (SEC/Big 12 Challenge) and rival Alabama on deck. Laying double digits on the road, they are ready to be faded here. 

Missouri has been a bit schizophrenic of late. But they have covered the number in each of the last three games. They’ve not been favored in a single SEC game so far. So the fact they are 2-4 SU in conference play isn’t that bad. They beat Alabama, as a 14-point underdog, here in Columbia. They also won by 25 at Ole Miss last week, a game where the Tigers were +7.5. Over the weekend, they fell in a rematch with Alabama, but easily covered the 18-point spread. They actually led by as many as 14 in that game. 

Three-point shooting has been pretty lousy for Mizzou all year. But there were signs of a turnaround in their last game, as they made 11 of 24 from behind the arc against Bama. Auburn will not shoot 56.8% again like they did vs. UK on Saturday. They trailed at halftime in that game, but scored 51 points over the final 20 minutes. Auburn’s last four road games have brought three single digit wins. We don’t even need that tonight. Look for the home dog to stay within the number here. Take the points. 8* Missouri

10* Over Mavericks/Warriors (10:05 ET): While both of these teams have been very stout defensively, and the Warriors have really been that way all season, I’ve got to think tonight’s game on ESPN goes Over the oddsmakers’ total. For one, Dallas is on a preposterous run of Unders (eight straight, 13 of last 14 games) right now. Also, I think that Golden State, Steph Curry specifically, is due to break out of a shooting slump. This could end up as the lowest O/U line for any GSW game since 12/18, which went Over. 

Now there is no denying how good Dallas has been defensively during this 13-1 Under stretch. The most points they’ve given up in any of those games is 109 and only three teams have been able to top 100. In today’s NBA, that’s quite shocking. But eventually, you’re going to have a bad game defensively. The fact the Warriors have been struggling to make shots over the same stretch the Mavs have turned it on defensively tells me a “perfect storm” may be in order for tonight’s game. 

Even if both Klay Thompson and Draymond Green both sit out, the Warriors will top the 94 points they scored in the win over the Jazz Sunday. Steph Curry has been in a mini-slump, including 13 points on 5 of 20 shooting last game. He can still go off any night though. The Warriors scored just 11 points in the 4Q Sunday. They were on track for well over 100 before that. Holding the Jazz to 38% shooting was what allowed them to hold on for the two-point win. Dallas will shoot better than recent Warriors’ opponents have. 10* Over Mavericks/Warriors

8* Over Hornets/Raptors (7:10 ET): Both teams lost on Sunday, due in no small part to bad shooting. Charlotte, playing without Gordon Hayward, fell 113-91 at home to Atlanta. That was only the second loss in the last nine games for the Hornets though. I expect them to bounce back offensively in this one, especially after going a dreadful 4 of 36 from three-point range vs. the Hawks. They missed 18 straight attempts from behind the arc and finished the game at just 39.1% overall from the field. 

Toronto played a horrible game against Portland, falling behind by 34 in the first half. This was at home! While I am predicting Charlotte to bounce back offensively in this one, the same can be said for the Raptors. They were held under 40% shooting by the Blazers. Key to their projected improvement here is the fact Charlotte is dead last in the Eastern Conference in scoring defense, giving up 114.2 points per game. The Hornets’ defense has improved some over the last month, but the YTD numbers speak for themselves. 

The total was very high (233.5) for the Charlotte-Atlanta game Sunday. So it looks like we’re getting some solid value with this number. The Under is 7-1 in Charlotte’s last eight games and 12-3 L15 (4-0 L4). To me, that says things are “due” to go the “other way.” Same for Toronto, who had gone Under in seven straight before Sunday’s Over vs. Portland. Prior to the seven-game Under run, the Raptors had gone Over in 10 straight games. They are streaky when it comes to totals! 8* Over Hornets/Raptor

8* Under Nuggets/Pistons (7:10 ET): These teams just met Sunday with Denver winning 117-111. It came down to the final minute, which had to be less than thrilling if you’re a Nuggets’ fan as they led by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. What should have Denver “breathing easier” for tonight’s rematch is that it is HIGHLY unlikely the Pistons will shoot 56% again from the floor. The Pistons are last in the East in scoring (102.0 PPG) and shoot just 42.1% for the year. Only OKC is worse offensively. 

Though they were able to rally and tie the game up in the final minute, what killed the Pistons on Sunday were 22 turnovers, which were converted into 28 points by the Nuggets. They may not shoot as well tonight, but the home team should play a “cleaner” game. Defensively, they should be much better as well. While Detroit is allowing 115.1 PPG on the road, it’s a much more reasonable number (107.5) at home. The Under has also hit in the team’s last eight Tuesday games. 

Denver is on a six-game Over run, where scoring has been way up from normal. They’ve allowed four straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor. That can’t keep happening. As detailed above, this is an ideal opponent for the defensive woes to cease. I will not be the least bit surprised if the Nuggets win a close, low-scoring game here. 8* Under Nuggets/Pistons

8* Washington (7:10 ET): The Wizards got off to a pretty nice start to the season, winning 10 of their first 13 games. But I saw some “holes” in their resume and there were some clear signs that regression would eventually take place. This is a team with a league-high eight wins by three points or less. Only the Magic and Pistons, the two obvious worst teams, have a worse point differential in the East. Sure enough, the Wiz are now reeling as they’ve lost four of five, all at home. They are 1-9 ATS in the L10 games. 

But, tonight is a situation I expect them to take advantage of. With road games at Memphis, Milwaukee and Philadelphia looming on the schedule, this game vs. the Clippers is a virtual “must-win.” After Sunday’s embarrassing loss to Boston, you’ve got to expect Washington will come out fired up at home. They can’t possibly shoot any worse than they did against the Celtics. They were just 35.5% overall and 23.5% from behind the arc. The good news is that they usually bounce back from games like that. They are 8-2 ATS this season and 21-8 ATS L3 seasons after a game scoring 100 points or less. 

The Clippers are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Don’t look for them to make a move into the top six out West. Had LA not made a stunning comeback against Philadelphia on Friday, they’d be coming into tonight as losers of five of their last six. The situation clearly favors the Wizards, who are playing their eighth straight home game while the Clippers are playing their fourth road game in seven nights, and the front end of a back to back. 8* Washington