10* Under Troy/GA Southern (9:00 ET): The last time these teams met, it was quite the high scoring affair. Georgia Southern won, 90-82, on the back of some lights out shooting. The Eagles finished that game w/ an overall field goal percentage of 61.0 (season-high, obviously) and were 10 of 19 from three-point range. Overall, they are a pretty good shooting team. Actually, they are one of the nation's best as one of only five teams to be above 50% overall for the year. But I don't see them matching the efficiency from that first meeting. I look for this game to stay Under the total.

Despite Ga Southern's sharp shooting, they're still only fourth in the Sun Belt. Troy is close to the bottom and coming off a bad game where they made only 40% of their field goal attempts in a 77-63 loss to Georgia State. That loss took place just two days ago, so it's a quick turnaround here for the Trojans. The poor shooting was probably long overdue after a three-game stretch where they connected on nearly 50% of their three-point attempts. They made only 25% from behind the arc in that first meeting w/ Ga Southern. On the road, Troy averages about seven fewer points per game than they do at home. 

The last six times these teams have played, the Over has cashed. But not tonight. We've already established how Georgia Southern is unlikely to shoot as well as they did the first time they played Troy this season. Well, the Under has also cashed in the Eagles' last five home games vs. teams w/ losing road records. Troy is just 3-8 SU in "true" road games this season. Their games, on average, see about 151 total PPG scored. Ga Southern may be one of the highest scoring teams in the country, but this is a pretty high total and they play much better defense here in Statesboro. 10* Under Troy/GA Southern

8* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider's shocking downfall hit a new low earlier this week when they lost 98-88 to Quinnipiac ... in overtime. That was the Broncs' fifth straight loss, a stunning turn of events for a team that started MAAC play a perfect 5-0. But even moreso than Rider fans, it's those who have bet on the team left scratching their heads. This team has failed to cover nine in a row, all as favorites, including six outright losses. You just don't see that very often. Friday finds the Broncs looking to avenge one of those losses as they host Monmouth. Enough is enough. They get the job done here. 

Rider had already suffered four straight losses by seven points or less before losing to Quinnipiac in OT Tuesday. It was a close game most of the way, but w/ 49 seconds left in regulation, the Broncs led by nine. They led by seven w/ just 24 seconds remaining. Then came a real "comedy of errors" that saw them allow consecutive three point baskets. They were at least able to split a pair of free throws - twice - so they still led by three in the closing seconds. But then they fouled the shooter on a three-point attempt (w/ :01 left!). Three FT's later, we were going to overtime and by that point Rider was dispirited and done for. Bottom line is that they're NOT as bad as recent results suggest nor anywhere close, for that matter. Here at home, they still have an 8-2 SU record. 

Monmouth has pulled out four consecutive wins as a pick 'em or underdog, one of them coming against Rider. That upset came on 2/2 and the Hawks were 4.5-pt dogs in a 75-71 outright win. Monmouth closed the game on a 12-2 run. At the time, Rider was still leading the MAAC, but that loss started their downfall and they haven't won since. Monmouth is now in 1st place (despite a 10-16 SU overall record). Five of the Hawks' nine league wins have come by four points or less. Last week, they beat the two bottom teams in the MAAC (Fairfield, St. Peter's) on the road, holding the latter to just 27.1% shooting. I think it's telling that Rider is still such a decisive favorite here. Lay the points. 8* Rider

10* Over Rangers/Sabres (7:05 ET): The Blueshirts travel from the city to upstate NY on Friday for this post-Valentines Day date w/ the Sabres. We've been through this before, but the Rangers aren't good (nor were they expected to be) as they are one of six Eastern Conference teams that have little hope of making the postseason. As for Buffalo, they're hoping for at least a Wild Card, but find themselves currently six points back in that race. The reality is that outside of that 10-game win streak (back in November), they too have been a below average club, one that is 18-21-7 otherwise. 

The Sabres' last three games have all ended w/ an identical 3-1 score. They've won two of them, including their last time out on the ice, which was against the Islanders. That was here at home and a pretty impressive win, all things considered. They limited the Isles to just 25 shots, making it three straight games w/o allowing more than 30. But this seven-game homestand (which ends tonight) certainly got off to a dicey start defensively w/ them allowing 17 goals on 105 shots in the first three games. I think that's more representative of the kind of play we'll see here. 

The Rangers don't seem to pose much of a threat offensively as they rank 27th in the league in goals per game. But they are off a 4-3 loss in Winnipeg, which was actually the fourth time in five games they scored at least three goals. Given that they've won only two of those games, defense is obviously an issue for them as well. They've allowed three or more goals in six of their last seven contests. Goaltending could be an issue for both sides, especially the Rangers as likely starter Georgiev has an .882 save percentage on the road. Buffalo has gone Over in 11 of its last 16 games overall. 10* Over Rangers/Sabres