10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking Cleveland +1.5. It certainly feels as if the Indians’ season is on the brink here as the franchise recently announced a name change (Guardians), manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence and the team fell victim to a late rally last night against the White Sox. It was a game they never trailed by more than a run until the 8th when a HBP made the final score 6-4. The White Sox haven’t been all that good since the All-Star Break, losing 7 of their last 11. I don’t see the Indians doing any worse than a one-run loss today. 

The White Sox also got a very fortunate Yoan Moncada HR in the second inning off Cleveland starter Mejia. The ball only went over the fence after two Indians’ outfielders collided on what should have been a routine fly out. Cleveland has been very competitive with the AL Central leaders this season, going 6-6 against them in H2H play. The six runs scored by Chicago last night were the most in any of their L9 games. The last time they faced Triston McKenzie, the Indians starter for Saturday, they struck out 10 times in 5 ⅓ innings. McKenzie is also coming off a solid start where he allowed just two runs in six innings. The team won that game 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay. 

Dallas Keuchel will get the baseball tonight for the home team. He has a 5.73 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cleveland this season. He also allowed three home runs in his most recent start, which was a 4-3 loss to Kansas City. Given the White Sox recent offensive woes, I just don’t see them being able to win this game by multiple runs. 10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5)

8* Under Royals/Blue Jays (3:07 ET): This is a series that Toronto probably should sweep. For a second straight day, they are north of -200 on the money line and they figure to be heavy favorites on Sunday as well. The series got off to a good start on Friday with a 6-4 win. That puts the Jays at 52-48 through their first 100 games, but really they should have a much better record considering their YTD run differential is +99 (only five teams better). They are 4.5 games back of the Wild Card. Meanwhile, Kansas City was an obvious seller at yesterday’s trade deadline. They are 12 games below .500 w/ a -84 YTD run differential. 

Toronto bolstered its starting rotation with a deadline deal, acquiring Jose Berrios from Minnesota. That will help in the run suppression department moving forward and I also don’t see them giving up a ton of runs tonight when they send Alek Manoah to the bump. Through eight starts, Manoah has a 2.90 ERA and his last two at home have seen him not give up a single ER in 13 IP. The Royals came into this series averaging just 3.6 rpg on the road while batting a collective .228. The Under is 8-1-2 in their L11 games. 

Last night marked the first time the Jays got to play in Toronto in almost two years (due to the pandemic). Playing “home games” in Dunedin and Buffalo this year, the team has not been shy about scoring runs, averaging 5.8 per game. That’s the most by any team at home all season. While they were right in line with that average Friday night, I do think that the return to Rogers Centre will lead to a decrease in runs per game moving forward. A benefit here is that they probably won’t have to come up to bat in the bottom of the ninth (assuming they are ahead). In eight career appearances against Toronto, Royals starter Mike Minor has a 2.59 ERA. He’s coming off B2B quality starts as well. The Under is 9-1 in Toronto’s L10 games vs. a left-handed starter. 8* Under Royals/Blue Jays