I’m taking the Cubs- Marlins UNDER on Sunday, mostly because of their starting pitching matchup. Chicago will counter Miami's Tyler Phillips with Clay Holmes, who is 6-6 with a 2.09 ERA.

Holmes has pitched his way out of any trouble recently, surrendering only one run over his past 25 innings (0.36 ERA) spread over four starts. He should help Chicago keep Miami's potent offense in the two-to-three-run range.

Meanwhile, Phillips has also been pitching very well lately. The Miami starter has allowed only one run over 9 2/3 innings over his past two starts. As long as he can pitch five or six innings of zeroes or tight knots, Sunday's game should remain quiet until the late innings.

While Saturday's game did total 6+ runs at 6-5, I still like the UNDER because starting pitching is deeper on Sunday. Both teams scored six or more runs on Friday, but the Cubs won 6-1 and Miami has continued to battle inconsistency scoring runs this series. Indoors also nullifies wind and weather at loanDepot park.

Jim's Play: 905. Cubs/Marlins UNDER 

I’m taking the Braves-Phillies UNDER here on Sunday. Aaron Nola's (4.93) and Tyler Mahle’s (4.25) season ERA's don’t jump off the page at Under, but both pitchers have been trending much better than their season numbers indicate. 

Mahle has been dominant lately. He's given up five earned runs over his last 30 1/3 innings pitched and pitched to one-run or fewer in four of his last five starts. His most recent outing was six innings and two-thirds of another while allowing one run and striking out nine against no walks in Colorado.

Nola has found his stride again as well. He has a 2.79 ERA over his last five starts while allowing two earned runs or fewer in four consecutive starts. Nola has also struck out 37 hitters over his last five starts, helping Philly have a chance to limit Atlanta's potent offense without it having to rely on balls in play.

Really, the UNDER is validated by the first two games of this series. Atlanta opened with a 5-2 win on Friday night, but Philadelphia evened the series with a 4-2 win Saturday. Only 13 runs combined through two games, and Atlanta managed five hits on Saturday. Both bullpens pitched well, too. Philadelphia's late-inning bullpen suffocated Atlanta's hitters, and Braves relievers were able to throw scoreless innings after Martin Perez exited the game.

Sunday will be another pitcher's duel, and with this NL East race being battled out with playoff intensity, I don’t expect either manager to hesitate to use their better relievers if their starter starts to struggle.

Jim's Play: 903. Braves/Phillies UNDER

I'll take Yankees-Padres UNDER pm Sunday. This is one of those fantastic starting pitching match-ups where Gerrit Cole will toe the rubber opposite Michael King. Cole is 8-7 with a 3.29 ERA. King hasn't been quite as good, but he's not far behind at 9-9 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. This will feature two legitimate top-of-the-rotation types squaring off at Petco Park, which means runs won't come easy early.

King is coming off back-to-back outings where he threw 13 straight scoreless innings. He has only allowed nine hits and struck out 13 during that stretch. Seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh were followed by six hitless innings against Cincinnati.

San Diego is hitting into a full-blown funk right now too. Padres hitters have scored just four runs total over the first two games of this series. They needed extra innings to get three runs Friday night, then managed just one run and three hits Saturday. During their slump, San Diego hitters are batting just .153 with runners in scoring position.

Aaron Judge will again sit this series out for the Yankees while Trent Grisham has now joined him on the IL with a hamstring strain. Losing yet another power bat means New York will have less pop against King’s offerings.

Friday's contest stayed at 1-1 until San Diego scored three times in the top of the tenth to win 3-2. Saturday's game ended with a final score of 5-1. Sunday will feature Cole vs. King, so I'm banking on another low-scoring game where the bullpens play a huge role.

Jim's Play: 929. Yankees/Padres UNDER

I'm taking the Diamondbacks-Astros UNDER on Sunday. There's a good starting-pitching match up to like in terms of limiting runs, as Houston will start Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.66 ERA) against Arizona southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez (14-5, 2.59). Rodriguez has emerged as one of Arizona's most reliable starters and his ability to minimize damage bodes well for the Diamondbacks chances of keeping Houston to three or four runs.

How the first two games of this series have played is another big Under sign for me. Houston took Friday's game 3-1 before Arizona won 4-3 on Saturday in 10 innings. That's a combined 11 runs over 19 innings so far. Saturday’s game needed extra-inning to crack seven runs total.

Arizona's offense has been particularly inept. The Diamondbacks scored a combined six runs over their last five games before Saturday, including one run over four straight contests. Saturday proved to be a step in the right direction, but Arizona still managed just three runs over nine innings.

Houston hasn't been blowing many games open either. The Astros mustered three runs Saturday and went an astonishing 2-12 with runners in scoring position. Those opportunities won't be nearly as plentiful with Rodríguez taking the hill.  Take the UNDER. 

Jim's Play: 927. D'backs/Astros UNDER 

Wisconsin had better days. But I'm willing to take the Badgers to cover the monstrous +20.5 spread against Notre Dame this weekend at Lambeau Field. Notre Dame is better and should be a double-digit favorite. But expecting three-touchdown coverages from the Irish in a season opener against a frenzied Big Ten squad is a tall task. 

Give me Wisconsin because of new quarterback Colton Joseph. The Old Dominion transfer broke out in Year 2 with the Monarchs, ranking as the 2025 FBS Offensive Player of the Year after throwing for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns while rushing for 1,007 yards and 13 touchdowns. His ability to keep plays alive with his legs gives Wisconsin a completely new wrinkle it didn’t have last season and presents a method for extending drives against Notre Dame pass rush.

Wisconsin also went out and upgraded its roster this offseason, adding over 40 new players. Luke Fickell has repeatedly said the biggest development coming out of training camp is how deep his roster is across the board. The Badgers simply need to be balanced enough to keep drives alive and keep teams from punching the ball in the end zone on every drive. They don't need to methodically drive 75 yards on Notre Dame's defense. Wisconsin just needs to protect the ball, shorten the game with the run and QB movement, and manufacture scoring drives to keep this game inside three touchdowns.

Lastly, Lambeau Field should favor Wisconsin. While it's technically a neutral-site game, Wisconsin should have a ton of support at Lambeau Field in Green Bay. Plus, the Badgers are 10-1 in their last 11 season openers and 3-0 in season openers under Fickell.

I think Notre Dame will win this game. But the points give Wisconsin too much cushion. If Joseph can create explosive plays with his legs, Wisconsin doesn't turn the ball over, and the Badgers D can slow down Notre Dame's rushing attack, we could see this game stay competitive until late in the second half.

Jim's Play: 227. Wisconsin

I'm taking Louisville plus the points against Ole Miss in Sunday night's ranked showdown in Nashville. The Rebels are the better team, and deserve to be favored. But I like the Cardinals keeping it close with enough offensive balance, experience up front and coaching to stay within one score.

My biggest reason centers around Jeff Brohm's history against the spread as an underdog. Brohm is 37-15 ATS in his career when catching points, including frequently designing potent offenses that can hang with more talented teams. Louisville also returns an experienced offensive line with 142 combined career starts that was assembled primarily through the transfer portal.

Quarterback play will be led by Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who hasn't had an opportunity to play extensively at the college level. But his presence as a passer creates matchup problems with his mobility that Brohm can use with RPOs, designed QB runs and play-action. Throw in an RB still healthy for the opener in Isaac Brown, who has already posted a 1,000-yard season, and Louisville has enough playmakers to keep pace.

While Ole Miss has elite skill players like Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy, there are still questions about how everything runs with a first full season under Pete Golding after Lane Kiffin was forced out. Chambliss passed for 3,937 yards and just three interceptions a season ago, while Lacy added 1,567 yards and 24 touchdowns on the ground. But there's just something about a brand-new coordinator in the SEC during a season opener that has me leaning toward the points.

It's also a neutral-site game at Nissan Stadium in Nashville rather than an outright road game in Oxford. That diminishes some of Ole Miss typical home-field advantage and should allow Louisville fans to make the drive from campus.

The market opened Ole Miss -6.5 and has mostly settled around Ole Miss -7 as we get closer to kickoff. That extra touchdown makes a difference in what I think will be a close game between two teams that should both rank in the Top-25 at the end of the season. Louisville has the offense to score with Ole Miss, and the experience to keep it close.

Jim's Play: 229. Louisville