Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-30-13 | Miami Dolphins v. New Orleans Saints -7 | 17-38 | Win | 102 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -7
The Key: I'm not sold on the Dolphins. They are fortunate to be 3-0 considering they have been outgained in each of their games and rank just 18th in total defense and 27th in total offense. Ryan Tannehill has made strides as the Dolphins rank 14th in passing offense with 249.0 ypg. However, he's up against a New Orleans defense that ranks second against the pass at 184.3 ypg allowed. The Saints are 9-0 ATS in home games since the start of the 2011 season versus teams that average 235 or more passing yards per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 38.0 to 17.6. While the Saints are a pass-first team, they know the importance of running the football to keep the defense off balance. They ran it effectively last week, and I expect them to have success on the ground versus a Miami defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games since the beginning of the 2011 season versus teams that allow 4.5 yards or more per carry. They have won these games by an average score of 38.0 to 21.5. Drew Brees has won eight consecutive Monday Night Football contests while throwing for 24 TDs against 5 INTs, and the Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Monday nighters. He should have a comfortable night in the pocket with Miami DE Cameron Wake expected to miss with a knee injury. New Orleans is 10-1 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since the start of the 2011 season. Lay the points. |
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09-29-13 | New England Patriots v. Atlanta Falcons -129 | 30-23 | Loss | -129 | 104 h 41 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Falcons -129
The Key: I expect the Falcons to cover the spread, but I'm taking them on the money line at an affordable price to take away any possibility of a push or backdoor loss. New England is 3-0 but hasn't been very impressive. It could easily be 1-2. Now, it travels to one of the toughest venues in the NFL, and I don't expect it to make it out alive. The Falcons are a ridiculous 34-7 at home in the regular season the last 5+ seasons. Atlanta is 8-1 ATS under coach Smith in September home games. It is 12-4 ATS under Smith in home games in the first half of the season. It is also 19-5 ATS under Smith following 1 or more consecutive losses. Take the Falcons. |
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09-29-13 | Philadelphia Eagles +11 v. Denver Broncos | 20-52 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
6* Late Afternoon Annihilator on Eagles +11
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back losses and having had nine days to prepare, the Eagles are showing value catching double digits against a Denver squad playing on a short week. Chip Kelly's offense has been a nightmare for teams to prepare for, let alone on a short week. The Eagles rank No. 2 in the NFL in total offense with 461.7 ypg and No. 1 in rushing with 209.0 ypg. Denver has yet to be challenged on the ground as its opponents have fallen behind by so much early, but I believe they'll be challenged here. Philly's run game will keep the Denver offense off the field enough to cover this hefty number. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Also, Philly is on a 9-1 ATS run after a game with a turnover margin of -4 or worse. Denver is on a 2-12 ATS slide after scoring 30 points or more in 3 straight games. Take the points. |
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09-29-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +9 | 37-3 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 21 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Jaguars +9
The Key: This is a sandwich game for Indy, which is coming off a big win over the 49ers and has Seattle on deck. It won't give a Jacksonville team that has suffered three consecutive double-digit losses the attention it deserves. You want to play against favorites that are coming off a win of 14 points or more if they are matched up against an opponent that is coming off back-to-back double-digit losses. Doing so has produced a 25-6 ATS record the last 10 seasons. You also want to take underdogs or pickems that average 17.0 points or less per game following a game where they allowed 40 points or more as doing so has produced a 76-37 ATS record since 1983. The Jags have given the Colts problems. Jacksonville has won 3 of the last 4 meetings. It has also won or lost by fewer than 9 points in 18 of the last 22 meetings. Take the points. |
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09-29-13 | Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions -3 | 32-40 | Win | 100 | 96 h 5 m | Show | |
6* NFC North Annihilator on Lions -3
The Key: The Bears are very fortunate to be 3-0. They needed late comebacks to beat the Bengals and Vikings and then capitalized on one Pittsburgh miscue after another. They'll have a tough time getting past a Detroit squad that will be out for revenge after getting swept in the season series a year ago. The Lions are one of the best offensive teams in the league, and I like their chances against a Chicago defense that is giving up 383 ypg. Detroit wins this game if it can take care of the football, which is something it has done a good job of thus far. The Lions have committed only one turnover in each of their last two games. The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win of more than 14 points, 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game and 0-8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Bears are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus NFC North foes and 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games following a non-conference contest. The Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Detroit. Lay the points. |
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09-29-13 | NY Giants +4.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 40 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Giants +4.5
The Key: Fueled by an 0-3 start and last week's 38-0 loss at Carolina, you can bet Eli Manning and company will be ready to go Sunday. I'm not sold on the Chiefs, who have benefited from turnovers the last two weeks. New York has had major turnover issues, but I just don't see it continuing. Manning has been far too good throughout his career for the poor decision making to continue. It's far too early for the Chiefs to deserve this much respect at home. Consider that they are 0-6 ATS as a home favorite since the 2011 season and have lost these games by an average score of 24.5 to 11.0. Carolina got whatever it wanted on the ground last week, but the Giants tend to respond after getting torched in the run game. They are 6-0 ATS since 2011 after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game. They have won by an average of 13.3 points in these contests. Lastly, the Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Chiefs. 5 of these wins were SU with the other a 3-point loss in KC. I'll take the points as the Giants have an excellent chance to win this one outright. |
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09-26-13 | San Francisco 49ers -3 v. St. Louis Rams | 35-11 | Win | 100 | 32 h 48 m | Show | |
6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on 49ers -3
The Key: Motivated by back-to-back embarrassing losses, I expect the defending NFC champs to bounce back strong here. You want to back road teams that check in off an upset loss of 10 points or more, provided the line is +3 to -3, as doing so has produced a 35-12 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. It is also worth noting that the 49ers are on a 30-14 ATS run following an upset loss. You also want to fade home teams when the line is +3 to -3 that are outscored by 5.0 points or more per game in the first half, provided they were held to 14 points or less last game, as doing so has produced a 27-7 ATS record the last 5 seasons. St. Louis has really struggled to run the football, and that bodes well for San Francisco as it has struggled to stop the run in its last two games. The Rams are on a 4-17 ATS slide after being held to 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Additionally, the 49ers are 11-3 ATS under coach Harbaugh versus poor defensive teams that allow 5.65 yards per play or more. Lay the points. |
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09-23-13 | Oakland Raiders +15.5 v. Denver Broncos | 21-37 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Raiders +15.5
The Key: The Broncos are being overvalued because of how dominant they've been in their first two games. They have yet to be tested on the ground because Baltimore and the New York Giants were forced to take to the air due to big deficits. They'll be tested on the ground tonight, however, by the league's second-ranked rushing offense, which averages 198.5 yards per game. Terrelle Pryor and Darren McFadden have been explosive, and I expect them to run the ball effectively tonight. Doing so keeps the Denver offense off the field. Denver has been dealt a big blow with Peyton Manning's blindside protector, Ryan Clady, being lost for the season. His replacement, Chris Clark, has made six career starts at tight end but none at tackle. The Broncos were already without starting center Dan Koppen. These losses are big tonight because Oakland has shown the ability to rush the passer. It has nine sacks through the first two games. The Raiders are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 division games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes. The road team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings, and the Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Denver. The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday Night Football games. Take the points. |
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09-22-13 | Chicago Bears v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | 40-23 | Loss | -130 | 106 h 43 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3
The Key: With its back up against the wall, I fully expect this proud Pittsburgh franchise to respond in a big way. The Steelers easily could have defeated the Bengals Monday had it not been for a pair of costly turnovers. The Steelers are not in as bad of shape as the media would like you to believe. The Bears are 2-0 but are very, very fortunate to be so. They trailed the Bengals 21-10 in the second half of the first game, and they trailed the Vikings 30-24 late in the 4th last week. The Bears are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win. The Steelers are on a 19-8 ATS run in home games following a loss to a division rival. They are also 11-3 ATS in home games after being held to 14 points or less under coach Tomlin. Pittsburgh has won by an average score of 27.4 to 11.1 in this situation. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-22-13 | St. Louis Rams +4 v. Dallas Cowboys | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 97 h 45 m | Show | |
6* NFC Game of the Week on Rams +4
The Key: A Dallas team that could easily be 0-2 is being overvalued here. The Cowboys are consistently one of the most overvalued teams every season because of their huge public backing. As a result, the Boys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are also 4-12 ATS as a home favorite under coach Garrett. It is also worth noting that they are 6-18 ATS since the start of the 2011 season versus NFC opponents. The Rams have been a terrific investment on the road where they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7. Take the points. |
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09-22-13 | San Diego Chargers v. Tennessee Titans -3 | Top | 17-20 | Push | 0 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on Titans -3
The Key: After showing well in a pair of road games against the Steelers and Texans, the Titans will be jacked up for their home opener. They'll also be incredibly motivated. Tennessee is 0-8 against the Chargers and was whipped 38-10 in San Diego last year so it will be out for blood. The Titans were a 6-point dog in last year's game, and they have caught 6 and 7 points, respectively, the first two weeks. Now, they're laying points against a team that has owned them and just upset a high-powered Philly squad? Odds makers clearly like Tennessee's chances here, and I couldn't agree more. Keep in mind the favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. The Titans are the better defensive team, and they have had success by committing to running the football and not turning it over. Tennessee hasn't committed a turnover this season while forcing 4. San Diego has committed 3 and forced only 1. The Chargers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Titans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 versus AFC foes and 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after being held to less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Take Tennessee. |
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09-19-13 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles -3 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles -3
The Key: The Eagles can't wait to get back on the field tonight after Sunday's narrow loss to San Diego. That defeat has them motivated and focused as they look to send their old coach back to Kansas City with his tail between his legs. Andy Reid is very familiar with Philadelphia's personnel, but he's not at all familiar with Chip Kelly's offense, which is averaging 477.0 yards and 31.5 points. The Eagles, on the other hand, are very familiar with the things that Reid likes to do offensively. The Kansas City defense has been pretty good thus far, but it played the worst team in the NFL (Jacksonville) in one of its games. Offense has been the big issue for the Chiefs as they rank 26th in total yards with 302.5 per game. The defense won't be able to get enough stops to give a mediocre-at-best offense enough possessions to get it done on the road tonight. The Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings with the Eagles. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-16-13 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 v. Cincinnati Bengals | 10-20 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
6* Monday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers +7
The Key: I'm taking the points in a game I expect to go right down to the wire. Pittsburgh has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 13 consecutive games against the Bengals. Even more impressive, Pittsburgh has won or lost by fewer than 7 points in 17 consecutive games in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh's defense was phenomenal in Week 1, and I'm confident it will have success against an opponent it knows very well. The Steelers held the Bengals to just 185 yards in last year's 24-17 win in Cincinnati. In addition to a stellar defensive performance, I expect the Pittsburgh offense to be much better than it was last week. The Bengals showed some vulnerability to the pass last week in Chicago, and Big Ben Roethlisberger is more than capable of having himself a game. Take the points. |
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09-15-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -2.5 | 3-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 23 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -2.5
The Key: Seattle's home field advantage is no joke. The Seahawks are an impressive 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 home games. They smoked San Francisco 42-13 in last season's home matchup and are 8-4 SU and ATS in their last 12 home contests in the series. Additionally, the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The Seahawks have been a phenomenal investment at 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall, including 10-1 ATS in their last 11 versus winning teams. Seattle went on the road and averaged 6.3 yards per play last week. That's a good sign because it is on a 7-0 ATS run going back to last season after averaging 6 or more yards per play in its previous game. They have won by an average score of 34.0 to 15.3 in these spots. It is also worth noting that Seattle is 6-0 ATS all-time in home games in the first month of the season under coach Carroll, winning these by an average score of 23.3 to 14.2. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS all-time under Carroll in home games when the total is between 42.5 and 45 points. It is also worth noting that the 49ers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 versus division foes. Lay the points. |
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09-15-13 | Denver Broncos v. NY Giants +5 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 16 m | Show | |
6* Manning Bowl *CA$H COW* on Giants +5
The Key: This line is an overreaction to the beating Denver put on the defending Super Bowl champs. The Giants have the offense to match the Broncos punch for punch. The G-Men are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 matchups with teams that have a winning record. Additionally, the way New York was able to move the football last week is a good sign. The Giants are 9-1 ATS since the beginning of the 2011 season after gaining 6.5 or more yards per play in their previous game. They have won by an average score of 28.4 to 19.9 in this situation. Look for Eli Manning and company to cut down on the turnovers and send home brother Peyton with a loss. |
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09-15-13 | New Orleans Saints v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 99 h 5 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Month on Buccaneers +3.5
The Key: Motivated by last week's upset loss to the Jets, and further fueled by a 41-0 beating the last time they played the Saints, the Buccaneers will be the hungrier team Sunday. Consider that Tampa Bay is on a 14-4 ATS run following an upset loss on the road, winning by an average score of 23.9 to 13.4 in this situation. In addition, the Saints find themselves in a letdown position following a big win over Atlanta. New Orleans was fortunate to win last season's matchup in Tampa Bay as it had to overcome a 14-0 deficit and was outgained 513-458. I don't believe the Saints will be as fortunate this time around. The Buccaneers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games versus teams with a winning record. Take the points. |
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09-12-13 | NY Jets v. New England Patriots -11 | 10-13 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Patriots -11
The Key: The Jets can't be trusted with a rookie QB making his first road start on a short week. New England has owned the Jets of late, going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) in the last 4 meetings. These 4 wins have come by an average of 15.8 points. Also, 4 of New England's last 6 victories in the series have come by at least 17 points. The Pats will function much better on a short week because they have Tom Brady calling the shots. The injuries they are dealing with aren't a major concern. They continually plug players in and Brady makes them into Pro Bowlers. The Pats are 9-1 ATS since the start of the 2011 season when coming off a win against a division rival. They have won by an average score of 38.5 to 16.5 in this situation. Lay the points. |
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09-09-13 | Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles +3.5
The Key: Robert Griffin III will get the start for Washington tonight, but I'm not expecting an All-Pro caliber performance from him. He didn't take a single snap in the preseason, and I believe he'll be rusty as a result. In addition, Washington's defense will have a tough time figuring out Chip Kelly's offense. Philly will look to play uptempo, which is always taxing on defenses, especially early in the season before they're in full game shape. Washington will really struggle with the read-option stuff, which will get LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick into space where both are extremely dangerous. You want to fade favorites that allowed 5.4 yards per play or more last season if they're matched up against a division opponent because doing so has produced a 49-23 (68.1%) ATS record the last 10 seasons. Also, Washington is a on a 28-47 ATS slide as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lastly, the road team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run in the series. Take the points. |
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09-08-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions -5 | 24-34 | Win | 101 | 46 h 22 m | Show | |
6* NFL Early Blowout on Lions -5
The Key: Look for the Lions to take care of business on their home field Sunday. Detroit will be incredibly motivated after grossly underachieving last year. The fact it was swept by Minnesota last season adds fuel to the fire. The Lions have more talent than the Vikings all over the field. I just don't see Minnesota being able to slow down a Detroit offense that averaged over 400.0 yards per game last season. The Detroit "O" should be even more dynamic this season with the addition of Reggie Bush. Everything Minnesota does stems from the run. That makes it very tough to comeback when it finds itself in a hole, which is exactly where it will be if Detroit doesn't give the ball away. The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 1. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. In head-to-heads, the winning team has won by at least 6 points in 7 of their last 8 meetings. Lay the points. |
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09-08-13 | Oakland Raiders +10.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 46 h 46 m | Show | |
6* NFL Public Burial on Raiders +10.5
The Key: The public is all over the Indianapolis Colts here, and I believe it will get buried for its support. The Colts won 11 games last season but were fortunate to do so. 9 of their victories came by 7 points or less. 6 of those were decided by 4 points or fewer with another decided in OT. With this info in mind, I don't think Indy is worth the double-digit lay. The Colts will rely on Andrew Luck to move the ball through the air, which plays to Oakland's strength. The Raiders are nice across the back with D.J. Hayden, Tracy Porter, Mike Jenkins and Charles Woodson. Luck had 18 passes picked last season, and I wouldn't be surprised if this group gets him once or twice. I also like the fact Terrelle Pryor is getting the start. He brings an element to the table that is impossible to prepare for. Take the points. |
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09-08-13 | Seattle Seahawks v. Carolina Panthers +4.5 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 57 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Panthers +4.5
The Key: The Seahawks are being overvalued on the road as oddsmakers are looking to exploit the public perception of them. Seattle was not the same team away from home last season. It went 3-5 on the road during the regular season with one of the wins coming by just 4 points and the other coming in OT. It was these Panthers that played the Seahawks to the aforementioned 4-point game and did so despite totaling only 190 yards of offense. This speaks to how well Carolina defended the Seahawks. Plus, we know the Cam Newton-led Panthers are capable of a much better performance offensively. NFL teams headed up by Pete Carroll are 4-13 ATS all-time as a road favorite of 7 points or less. Furthermore, the Seahawks are 0-6 ATS all-time in road games occurring in the first month of the season under Carroll. They have lost these by an average score of 24.5 to 10.5. Take the points. |
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09-05-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos -7 | 27-49 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
6* NFL Opening Night *CA$H COW* (NBC) on Broncos -7
The Key: The Broncos defeated the Ravens 34-17 in Baltimore last regular season, and they should have earned a 7-point home victory over the Ravens in the playoffs, but Joe Flacco connected on a 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones and the rest is history. That loss has fueled the Broncos this offseason, and I fully expect them to have their revenge this evening. Excluding pushes, Denver is on a 10-2 ATS run as a favorite and has won by an average score of 31.8 to 16.5 in these games. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games while the Ravens are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Also, the favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Lay the points. |
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02-03-13 | Baltimore Ravens +4 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 99 h 21 m | Show |
7* Super Bowl *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens +4
The Key:The Baltimore defense has come alive at the perfect time. The Ravens held the New England Patriots, the No. 1 ranked offensive team during the regular season, to only 13 points in the AFC Championship. They also held the Indianapolis Colts to just nine points in the wild-card round. They gave up 35 points to the Denver Broncos in the divisional round, but 14 of those points were scored on kick returns. In other words, they held Peyton Manning and the explosive Denver offense to only 21 points. If they can hold down these offenses, they can limit the 49ers. It is no secret that San Francisco will look to run the football. Baltimore, however, has proven itself against good running teams for years. Consider that the Ravens are on a 22-9 against the spread run in games played in the second half of the schedule versus good running teams that average 130.0 rushing yards or more per game. The Ravens have defeated these foes by an average of 3.3 points. Baltimore held the 49ers to just 74 yards on the ground in last season |
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01-20-13 | Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots -8.5 | 28-13 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 15 m | Show | |
6* AFC Championship *CA$H COW* on Patriots -8.5
The Key: The public is piling on Baltimore after watching it upset Denver last week but consider that road underdogs or 3.5 to 10 points that are coming off an upset win, provided they have a winning record and are playing another winning team in the second half of the season, are 72-36 ATS since 1983. Teams fitting into this situation have lost by an average of 10.3 points. The Ravens won the regular-season meeting but the Pats are 13-4 ATS all-time under coach Belichick when out for revenge for a same-season loss to an opponent. New England is also 8-2 ATS this season as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. It has won these games by an average of 18.0 points. Baltimore benefited from a pick-six and a couple bombs against the Broncos. It can't be counted on to make the same big plays this week. Lay the points. |
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01-20-13 | San Francisco 49ers v. Atlanta Falcons +5 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 46 m | Show |
7* NFL Conference Championship *HEAVY HITTER* on Falcons +5
The Key: The 49ers looked dominant against the Packers last week, and the public is jumping all over them as a result. That game, however, was at home. San Francisco hasn't been the same team on the road where it has 3 losses, including a 42-13 loss to a Seattle team the Falcons just defeated. Atlanta must be taken seriously at home where it is 8-1 this season and 34-8 in its last 42 games. The numbers suggest the public's kneejerk reaction to back the 49ers isn't the right move. Consider that San Francisco is on a 14-31 ATS slide in road games following a win of 14 or more points. The Niners have lost these games by an average of 2.4 points. It is also significant that Atlanta failed to cover the spread last week. That's because it is 22-8 ATS all-time under coach Mike Smith after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. It has won these games by an average of 8.0 points. Take the points. |
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01-13-13 | Houston Texans +10 v. New England Patriots | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
7* AFC Divisional Round *HEAVY HITTER* on Texans +10
The Key: The Texans lost 42-14 in New England on Dec. 10, but consider this: road teams that are out for revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent, provided both teams have winning records, are 29-7 ATS the last 10 seasons. In addition, the Texans are 9-2 ATS all-time under coach Kubiak when out for revenge for a loss of 14 points or more to an opponent. They have won these contests by an average of 4.8 points. It is also worth noting that New England is 1-9 ATS all-time in home games under coach Belichick when playing with 2 weeks of rest or more. The Pats have won these contests by an average of only 2.7 points. Houston is good enough defensively and has a good enough running game to have its revenge against the New England. |
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01-13-13 | Seattle Seahawks +3 v. Atlanta Falcons | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 96 h 7 m | Show | |
6* NFC Divisional Round *CA$H COW* on Seahawks +3
The Key: The Falcons haven't shown they can be trusted in the playoffs. They are 0-3 in the postseason under coach Mike Smith and have been absolutely destroyed by the Packers and Giants the last 2 years. Seattle is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt over the last 2 seasons, 7-0 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS vs. good teams outscoring opponents by 6.0 points or more per game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Also, the Seahawks are 6-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game this season. The Seahawks are playing outstanding football. They held the Redskins, one of the best offensive teams in the league, to just 203 yards last week. Take the points. |
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01-12-13 | Green Bay Packers +3 v. San Francisco 49ers | 31-45 | Loss | -119 | 79 h 27 m | Show | |
6* NFC Divisional Round *CA$H COW* on Packers +3
The Key: The Packers lost to the 49ers clear back in September, but I expect them to have their revenge. Green Bay is 13-2 against San Francisco dating back to 1996 and is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in road games during this span. The lone road loss came by only 3 points. The Packers are 37-22 ATS in all road games under coach Mike McCarthy and 24-13 ATS as an underdog under his watch. In addition, they are 16-6 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less under McCarthy and have won these games by an average of 4.3 points. I have a lot more faith in Aaron Rodgers than SF rookie Colin Kaepernick here. Take the points. |
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01-12-13 | Baltimore Ravens +10 v. Denver Broncos | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
7* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year on Ravens +10
The Key: The Ravens fell 34-17 to the Broncos on Dec. 16, but that won't keep me off them here. Consider that underdogs of 3.5 to 10.0 points that are looking for revenge for a loss to an opponent that scored 28 points or more on them, provided it is the second half of the season and both teams have winning records, are 23-4 ATS the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting into this system have lost by just 0.7 points on average. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. With last week's win over Indy, Baltimore improved to 6-4 in the postseason dating back to 2009. It is worth noting that only 1 of these defeats came by more than 9 points. Not playing last week is the worst thing that could have happened to the Broncos as it gets them out of rhythm and takes away their momentum. The Ravens are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with Denver. Take the points. |
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01-06-13 | Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Washington Redskins | 24-14 | Win | 111 | 75 h 31 m | Show | |
6* NFC Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Seahawks -3
The Key: Defense wins games this time of year, and Seattle definitely has the better defense. The Seahawks finished the season ranks No. 1 in the NFL in scoring defense with 15.3 points allowed per game. They ranked No. 4 in total defense with 306.2 yards allowed per contest. The Redskins, meanwhile, ranked 22nd in scoring defense (24.2 ppg allowed) and 28th in total defense (377.7 ypg allowed). Washington was one of the top offensive teams in the league, but just look at what the Seahawks have done to good offenses lately. Seattle is 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams that average 24 points or more per game over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these teams by an average of 7.5 points. The Seahawks are also 7-0 ATS versus good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons. They have defeated these foes by an average of 6.4 points. Furthermore, the Seabirds are 7-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.5 yards or more per carry over the last 2 seasons and have defeated these teams by an average of 10.0 points. Lastly, Seattle is 6-0 ATS all-time in the second half of the season under Pete Carroll versus poor defensive teams that give up 24.0 points or more per game. The Seahawks have won these contests by an average of 20.5 points. Lay the field goal. |
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01-06-13 | Indianapolis Colts v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | Top | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 47 m | Show |
7* NFL Wild Card *HEAVY HITTER* on Ravens -6.5
The Key: Hats off to the Colts for a fantastic bounce back season, but the playoffs are a different animal. The Colts are very inexperienced. Nine of their starters have no postseason experience at all. Baltimore, meanwhile, has a roster stacked with playoff experience. Plus, we're talking about a team that is 4-0 in its opening playoff game the past 4 seasons and won each of them by at least 7 points. The Colts will depend on their rookie QB (Luck) in this one. And while he's had a good season, it shouldn't go unnoticed that he's thrown 18 picks and has a passer rating of just 76.5. The Baltimore pass defense has been outstanding down the stretch. It has held each of its last 3 and 5 of its last 7 foes below 200 yards passing. It is very significant that it has held its last 2 opponents below 150 yards passing because the Ravens are 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Harbaugh after giving up 150 or less passing yards in 2 straight games. The Ravens have won by an average of 10.2 points in this situation. Lay the points. |
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01-05-13 | Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 55 h 54 m | Show | |
6* NFC Wild Card *CA$H COW* on Packers -7.5
The Key: Historically speaking, the numbers aren't in Minnesota's favor. Plays against any team off an upset win over a division rival at home, as long as it has a winning record and is playing another winning team, are 37-13 ATS since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. Also, plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent and are coming off an upset loss are 61-28 ATS since 1983. This system is 10-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. The Packers are 7-1 at home and won this season's home meeting against the Vikes by 9 points despite giving up 240 yards rushing. The Vikings are just 3-5 on the road this season and are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last 3 visits to Lambeau, losing them by an average of 17.0 points. Green Bay was gashed for 217 yards on the ground in Week 17 but is a perfect 6-0 ATS after allowing 175 or more rushing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points. |
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01-05-13 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -4.5 | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 18 m | Show |
7* Wild Card Game of the Year on Texans -4.5
The Key: The Bengals closed the season strong but only beat two playoff teams all season. One of those wins came against Washington early in the year before it had rounded into form. The other came in Week 17 versus a Baltimore team that rested its starters the majority of the game. Houston crushed Cincy 31-10 in a wild-card matchup last season and did so without Matt Schaub under center. The Bengals are improved, but so are the Texans. This is one of the most talented teams in the NFL, one a lot of folks picked to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. I still like its chances. Houston is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 meetings with Cincy dating back to 2008 and has won these by an average of 15.5 points. Houston's running game was way too much for the Bengals to handle in last season's playoff meeting as the Texans rushed for 188 yards. I expect it to be too much again. The Bengals are 9-18 ATS under coach Marvin Lewis versus strong running teams that average 130 yards or more per game on the ground. Lay the points. |
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12-30-12 | Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Washington Redskins | 18-28 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 38 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Cowboys +3.5
The Key: The Cowboys have been a solid investment on the road where they are 5-2 ATS this season. They lost the season's first meeting but had won 3 in a row and 6 of 7 against the Redskins prior. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings, and the underdog is 23-6 ATS in the last 29 meetings. It is also worth noting that Washington is on a lousy 34-58 ATS slide as a home favorite. I'll grab the points with the Cowboys in this winner-take-all matchup. |
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12-30-12 | St. Louis Rams +11 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 44 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Year on Rams +11
The Key: Plays against home favorites that are out for revenge for a loss to an opponent, provided they check in off 2 consecutive covers as a favorite, are 23-5 ATS the last 10 seasons. The Rams are 10-3 ATS in the underdog role this season and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NFC West foes. Seattle rolled San Francisco last week but is a pathetic 2-17 ATS in its last 19 games following a home blowout win of 21 points or more. The Seahawks' chances of capturing the NFC West are slim as they need to win and have the 49ers lose at home to Arizona. The chances of that happening aren't very good. There will be some scoreboard watching so Seattle could be resting some players before the game is through. Take the points. |
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12-30-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Buccaneers +5.5
The Key: The Buccaneers will be the more motivated team. They have lost five in a row and don't want to end the season with another lengthy losing streak. They have also lost their last two against the Falcons so they would love to bring an end to that two-game slide as well. Win or lose, the Falcons will own the best record in the NFC. In other words, they don't have anything to play for. The most important thing for them is to head into the playoffs healthy, which means there |
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12-23-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks +1 | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 79 h 52 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Seahawks +1
The Key: The Seahawks are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS at home this season. They are also 7-0 ATS in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games when looking for revenge for a road loss to an opponent over the last 3 seasons. In addition, Seattle is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 7 or more passing yards per attempt over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average 4.5 rushing yardsor more per carry over the last 2 seasons. The Seahawks have been tough as nails at home all season. Plus, it will be tough for San Francisco to bounce back emotionally following such an emotional win at New England last week. Seattle only lost by 2 points to the 49ers in last season's home meeting, and I believe it has what it takes to get the job done this time around. |
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12-23-12 | Cleveland Browns +13.5 v. Denver Broncos | 12-34 | Loss | -113 | 74 h 28 m | Show | |
6* NFL Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Browns +13.5
The Key: The Browns are being undervalued here considering they have lost just one road game by more than 13 points this season. That was a 14-point setback to the defending Super Bowl champion NY Giants. Their other 4 road defeats have all come by 7 or less points. They are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Browns check in off a 17-point loss to Washington but are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of at least 15 points. They are also 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss. Take the points. |
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12-23-12 | Washington Redskins v. Philadelphia Eagles +6.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 21 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Eagles +6.5
The Key: The Eagles were whacked by the Bengals in last week's Thursday night game, but with the extra time to prepare and extremely motivated to avenge last month's ugly loss at Washington, I expect a strong performance by Philly this week. The Eagles are an awesome 9-0 ATS off a home blowout loss of 21 points or more over the last two decades. They have bounced by from such defeats to win by an average of 7.2 points in these spots. It is also to our benefit that RG3 isn't at full strength. It's likely that he'll play Sunday, but I don't expect him to be the same player he has been throughout his rookie season. Take the points. |
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12-22-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Detroit Lions +4.5 | Top | 31-18 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 25 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions +4.5
The Key: The Lions were embarrassed in Arizona last week but played the Packers (twice), Texans and Colts very tough before that (3 of the losses came by 4 points or less). A matchup with arguably the best team in the NFC should get Detroit's juices flowing again. Atlanta shutout the Giants last week but is 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points in its previous game. The Lions, meanwhile, are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after being held to less than 15 points in their previous game. Detroit is also on a 15-5 ATS run following a loss of 28 or more points. The Lions are a much better team than their record shows, and I expect them to prove it here. |
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12-17-12 | NY Jets +2 v. Tennessee Titans | Top | 10-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on NY Jets +2
The Key:The Jets fall under a great situation tonight playing against favored home teams with terrible defenses. Trend has hit consistently at 66% since 1983 (51-26). Tennessee is also one of the worst home teams in the NFL this year, going just 2-4 both ATS and straight up. Their home defense also ranks among the worst in recent memory, allowing visiting teams to rack up 422 yards per game for 32 points per game so far this season. |
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12-16-12 | San Francisco 49ers +6 v. New England Patriots | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 103 h 20 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on 49ers +6
The Key: analysis coming... |
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12-16-12 | Green Bay Packers v. Chicago Bears +3 | 21-13 | Loss | -108 | 96 h 50 m | Show | |
6* NFC North *CA$H COW* on Bears +3
This game falls into a great situation where the bears are a solid 77-40 against the spread! |
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12-16-12 | Denver Broncos v. Baltimore Ravens +3 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 51 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Month on Ravens +3
The Key: Baltimore dominates versus divisional oppnenets, going 14-3 against them since 1992. |
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12-13-12 | Cincinnati Bengals -4 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Bengals -4
The Key: The Bengals have cleaned up against poor teams in the second half of the season under coach Marvin Lewis, even on the road. In fact, they are 6-0 ATS in road games under their current coach when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season and have won these games by an average of 14.3 points. The Bengals are also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 versus the Eagles. Cincy desperately needs this game to keep pace for the final AFC wild-card slot. That's all the motivation it should need to get the job done against a Philly squad that has lost 8 of 9. Lay the points. |
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12-10-12 | Houston Texans v. New England Patriots -4 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Patriots -4
The Key: I love the Pats at home tonight considering how good they have been late in the season. They are 20-0 in regular season games played in the second half of the season since 2010 and have won their last 12 December contests. Also, plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with a winning record on the season that are coming off 2 straight road wins and are matched up against a winning team are 30-9 ATS since 1983, including a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Lay the points. |
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12-09-12 | Detroit Lions +7 v. Green Bay Packers | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 100 h 39 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Lions +7
The Key: With the playoffs out of the picture, this game becomes Detroit's Super Bowl. There's nothing the Lions want more than to win in Green Bay, where they have lost 20 in a row. 6 of Detroit's losses have come by 7 points or less. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these 2 have been decided by 4 points or less. The Packers are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record, and I expect this negative trend to continue as they are being overvalued against a team that is capable of knocking them off. Take the points. |
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12-09-12 | Tennessee Titans +6 v. Indianapolis Colts | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 12 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Titans +6
The Key: The Titans took the Colts to OT in the first meeting, and I expect them to give Indy all it wants and more again Sunday. Plays on road teams that are looking to avenge a loss to an opponent that held them to 14 points or less are 160-101 ATS the last 10 seasons. The "play on" side has been valued as an underdog of 5.4 points on average but has lost by just 2.9 points on average. Also, the Colts are just 10-23 ATS in their last 33 home games in the 2nd half of their schedule versus teams that have a losing record. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Take the points. |
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12-09-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Carolina Panthers +3.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 92 h 13 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Panthers +3.5
The Key: The Carolina Panthers gave up 30 points in a 2-point loss at Atlanta in the first meeting, but they are 28-11 ATS all-time when out to avenge a loss to a foe that they allowed to score 28 points or more. The Panthers have won by an average of 0.4 points in these spots. Carolina is also 9-1 ATS all-time in home games in the 2nd half of the schedule versus good offensive teams that rack up 375.0 ypg or more. It has won by an average of 3.7 points in these spots. The Panthers are a better team than their record indicates. They don't have anything left to play for other than pride, and that will be enough Sunday. The Falcons were fortunate to win the first meeting, and they won't be as fortunate this time around. Take the points. |
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12-06-12 | Denver Broncos v. Oakland Raiders +11.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -120 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
7* AFC West Game of the Year on Raiders +11.5
The Key: Plays on home underdogs or pickems in the second half of the season that have failed to cover the number in 2 of their last 3 games, provided they have won 25% or less of their games on the season and are matched up against a team with a winning record, are 22-6 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system lets us know the value clearly lies with Oakland. Plus, the Broncos are just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 games against teams that have won 25% of their games or fewer on the season. Denver has won by only 1.9 points in these games. Lastly, the underdog is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings. The Raiders haven't quit. That was evident when they played Cleveland tough last week. I have no doubt they'll be the more motivated team tonight as they look to end a 5-game skid and avenge an embarrassing loss to the Broncos in the season's first meeting. |
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12-03-12 | NY Giants v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Redskins +3
The Key: The Redskins are a better football team than they were when they lost to the Giants by 4 in New York Oct. 21, and they have had a great deal of success against the Giants recently. They have won 2 of the last 3 meetings with those wins coming by double digits. Plus, teams coached my Mike Shanahan are 13-4 ATS in home games when looking to avenge a same season loss to an opponent over the last 2 decades. His teams have won by an average of 10.1 points in these spots. Take the points. |
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12-02-12 | Philadelphia Eagles +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 2 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Eagles +10.5
The Key: The Eagles are in the midst of a terrible stretch, but the Cowboys are not deserving of this much respect from oddsmakers. Taking road teams in the second half of the season that have lost 7 or more consecutive games has produced a 42-16 ATS mark since 1983. Also, Dallas is just 6-20 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons and 2-11 ATS in home games over the last 2 seasons. Take the points. |
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12-02-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Denver Broncos -7 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 37 m | Show | |
6* Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Broncos -7
The Key: This is a nightmare matchup for the Buccaneers, who rank last in the NFL is pass defense with 315.5 ypg allowed. Led by future Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning, the Broncos rank 5th in passing with 287.5 ypg. I just don't see Manning and the Denver "O" being stopped in this one. Also, Denver is one of the top defensive teams in the NFL. It ranks 4th in total defense with 308.4 ypg allowed. The TB offense will have its work cut out for itself against this unit. Lay the points. |
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12-02-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Detroit Lions -4.5 | Top | 35-33 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 33 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Lions -4.5
The Key: The Colts can't be trusted on the road where they have been crushed by Chicago, the New York Jets and New England and were fortunate to beat Tennessee in OT. The ball has not bounced Detroit's way this season, but I believe it is primed for a breakout performance. The Lions are the better team on both sides of the football, and the statistics back it up. Playing on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points that have outgained their opponents by 40-100 yards per game and are matched up against a team with a +/- 40 ypg differential, if the "play on" side totaled 400 yards of offense or more last game, has produced a 33-10 ATS mark the last 10 seasons. Teams fitting this scenario have won by an average of 13.6 points. Lay the points. |
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11-29-12 | New Orleans Saints +3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 13-23 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Saints +3.5
The Key: We saw in the season's first meeting, and in plenty of other meetings in recent seasons, that the Atlanta defense isn't good enough to slow down the Saints, who are 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams like Atlanta that allow 5.65 yards or more per play. The Saints are also 8-0 ATS in the 2nd half of the season the last 2 seasons versus teams that allow a pass completion percentage of 61% or higher. The Saints have won 4 in a row and 11 of 13 versus the Falcons. Plus, they really need this game to stay in the wild card race. Take the points. |
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11-26-12 | Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 30-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Panthers -3
The Key: Plays against Monday Night Football underdogs or pickems that check in having lost 5 of 6 of their last 7 games are 42-15 ATS since 1983. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 3 seasons. The Eagles have given up. They have lost each of their last 4 games by double digits and will be lacking some serious offensive punch with Vick and McCoy sitting this one out. Plus, the offensive line has been horrible. The Panthers are continuing to fight. 6 of their losses have come by 6 points or less, and they'll be chomping at the bit to take it to the Eagles here. Lay the field goal. |
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11-25-12 | Green Bay Packers v. NY Giants -2.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 17 m | Show |
7* Sunday Night Football Game of the Year on Giants -2.5
The Key: Extremely hungry following two straight losses, and extremely prepared following a bye week, I expect the Giants to take care of business at home against a team they defeated 37-20 in last season's playoffs. The G-Men have won 3 of their last 4 at home and should be able to take advantage of Green Bay's 21st-ranked pass defense here. Eli Manning, who connected on 21 of 33 throws for 330 yards with 3 TDs and 1 INT the last time these two met, leads the NFL's 9th-ranked passing attack. I also like the New York pass rush to have success in this one. It sacked Aaron Rodgers 4 times in the last meeting. The Green Bay pass rush has been good this season, but the New York offensive line has allowed Manning to be sacked only 12 times - the lowest total among QBs who have started the majority of the games. New York is on a fantastic 9-2-1 ATS run versus opponents that have a winning record. Lay the points. |
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11-25-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. Miami Dolphins +3 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Seattle is 6-16 ATS in its last 24 games following a bye week, 0-7 ATS in its last 7 road games after covering the spread in 6 or 7 of its last 8 games and 1-16 ATS in its last 17 games following a home blowout win of 21 points or more. Also, Pete Carroll's NFL teams are just 3-12 ATS all-time as a road favorite. The Dolphins are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the points. |
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11-25-12 | Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs +11.5 | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Chiefs +11.5
The Key: Denver is 0-9 ATS in its last 9 games in the 2nd half of the season vs. terrible teams that are outscored by 10+ points per game on the season. It has lost these games by an average of 7.8 points. The Broncos are also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road games in the second half of the season versus teams that commit 2.5 or more turnovers per game. They have lost these games by an average of 11.5 points. Lastly, the Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half. They have won these by an average of 5.7 points. Take the points. |
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11-22-12 | Washington Redskins v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
7* NFL Thanksgiving *HEAVY HITTER* on Cowboys -3
The Key: The Cowboys get the call on Thanksgiving day against a Washington team they have owned. The Boys have won 6 of the last 7 matchups, including each of the last 3, and they have long dominated the Redskins at home where they are 17-3 in the last 20. Dallas is better equipped to play on such a short week because it is far superior defensively. It has the 7th best stop unit in the NFL in terms of yards allowed per game while Washington ranks 26th in total defense. Plus, the Boys have fared well on Thursday going 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. They are 28-15-1 on Thanksgiving Thursday, and I expect them to continue their Turkey Day dominance here. |
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11-19-12 | Chicago Bears +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +7
The Key: I realize the line has shifted with breaking news that Alex Smith will be out in addition to Jay Cutler, but I still like the Bears as a 7* Top Play. Both defenses are good, but the Bears have the better defense because of their ability to force turnovers. They are tops in the league with 30 takeaways and 19 interceptions. This defense poses problems for the inexperienced Colin Kaepernick. Jason Campbell has a big edge in terms of experience, which I believe plays in Chicago's favor. The Bears are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 road games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Monday night games and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Chicago's defense gives it an excellent opportunity to win this one outright. |
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11-18-12 | Baltimore Ravens -2.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 19 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Ravens -2.5
The Key: This is a tough, tough spot for Pittsburgh which is playing on a short week and without star QB Big Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night contest. Baltimore took both of last seasons meetings SU and ATS, and I really like their chances of continuing their recent dominance of the Steelers. I just don't think Byron Leftwich will be able to make enough plays for Pittsburgh to keep this one close enough to cover. Lay the number. |
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11-18-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -105 | 114 h 57 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Raiders +5.5
The Key: This is a big-time letdown spot for the Saints after handing Atlanta its first loss of the season last week. Plays against favorites in the month of November that are coming off an upset win at home are 28-9 ATS since 1983. These teams have been favored by an average of 4.1 points but have lost by an average of 1.6. Also, plays on home underdogs or pickems that have a good offense that averages 5.4 yards or more per game, as long as the defense allowed 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games, are 30-8 ATS since 1983. These teams have been underdogs of 4.5 points on average but have won by an average of 1.4 points. This system is 8-1 ATS the last 5 seasons and 2-0 ATS this season. Take the Raiders. |
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11-18-12 | NY Jets +3.5 v. St Louis Rams | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 111 h 57 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Jets +3.5
The Key: This is a letdown spot for the Rams after last week's emotional tie against division rival San Francisco. Meanwhile, this is a major bounce back spot for the Jets, who have laid eggs in their last two games since taking New England down to the wire. The Jets are a better football team than they've shown, and I fully expect them to show up in a big way this week. Plays on road teams that are coming off a road loss in the month of November have produced an awesome 40-9 ATS mark the last 5 seasons. This system is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. Bet the Jets. |
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11-15-12 | Miami Dolphins +3 v. Buffalo Bills | 14-19 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
6* Thursday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Dolphins +3
The Key: Miami has been at its best in terms of an investment when playing on the road. It is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games, 8-1 ATS in road games following a home loss over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in road games after playing its last game at home over the last 2 seasons. The Phins have won by an average of 3.4 points in the six straight aforementioned covers. The Dolphins are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss of more than 14 points. They are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this series. Take the points. |
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11-12-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +12.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Chiefs +12.5
The Key: The Chiefs are being undervalued because they've lost 5 in a row. They've had 3 more days than Pittsburgh to prepare for this one, and I expect that to make a big difference. Plus, this is a look ahead spot for the Steelers, who have a big game with Baltimore Sunday. Pittsburgh is just 10-23 ATS in its last 33 as a favorite of 10 or more points while Kansas City 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992. The Chiefs are also on a sweet 9-1 ATS run in road games when coming off a road blowout loss of 14 points or more. Take the points. |
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11-11-12 | Houston Texans +1 v. Chicago Bears | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 76 h 55 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Texans +1
The Key: The Bears will meet their match Sunday night. The Bears don't have an impressive win in my opinion while Houston has impressive wins over Denver and Baltimore. The Bears have relied on their defense to make big plays against lesser opponents as they have struggled offensively, but their defense won't be able to bail them out here against against a Houston team that doesn't give the ball away. The Texans have had 0 giveaways in 5 games and just 6 total on the season. The Texans are on a 6-0-1 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Houston is 7-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons and 9-0 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Take the Texans. |
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11-11-12 | St. Louis Rams +11.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | 24-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 50 m | Show | |
6* Late Afternoon *CA$H COW* on Rams +11.5
The Key: The Rams are being undervalued here and the numbers support my claim. Underdogs of 10.5 or more points that allowed 30 points or more in their last game and have been outscored by an average of 4.0 points or more on the season are 28-9 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have only lost by an average of 8.5 points in this spot. Also, going against home favorites of 10.5 or more points that have won at least 60% of their games on the season and are coming off at least two consecutive victories has produced a 59-29 ATS record since 1983. These teams are only winning by an average of 10.3 points in this spot. Grab all the points you can and take the Rams. |
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11-11-12 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 20-55 | Loss | -127 | 68 h 25 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Year on Raiders +9.5
The Key: The Ravens are being way overvalued at home where they are just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games. The Raiders have a win over Pittsburgh and took Atlanta down to the wire at home so they are clearly capable of playing with anyone. Baltimore is a dismal 0-6 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons and 0-6 ATS vs. poor teams that are outscored by 6+ points per game on the season over the last 2 seasons. The Ravens are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Lastly, Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. Take Oakland. |
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11-08-12 | Indianapolis Colts v. Jacksonville Jaguars +4 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Jaguars +4
The Key: Indy's upset win at home against Miami last week puts it into a prime fade spot. Playing against favorites that have a winning record and are coming off an upset win at home has produced a perfect 9-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Colts have struggled against the Jags, losing each of the last 3 meetings both SU and ATS. They have also struggled on the road where they are 1-2 with their lone win coming in OT. Take the points. |
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11-05-12 | Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Eagles +3
The Key: Even though the Eagles have found ways to lose games, we can't ignore the fact that 5 of their 7 games have been decided by 3 points or less. In other words, they have been in virtually every game this season. We also can't ignore how bad the Saints have been defensively. They are dead last in total defense with 474.7 yards per game and dead last against the run with 170.1 yards per game. Their terrible run defense gives the an Eagles the clear advantage tonight. Philly ranks 11th with 117.7 rushing yards per game and is certainly capable of running all over the Saints with LeSean McCoy and Vick. Being able to keep the ball on the ground should also help the Eagles keep their turnovers to a minimum. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games, 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New Orleans. |
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11-04-12 | Dallas Cowboys +4.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 13-19 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 42 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Cowboys +4.5
The Key: The Cowboys are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Plus, they have never lost under coach Garrett when valued as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are a perfect 6-0 ATS in this situation. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS after outgaining an opponent by 100 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. Atlanta's last 2 home wins have come by only 2 and 3 points against lowly Carolina and Oakland teams. They'll have a tough time beating a Dallas team that ranks in the top 7 in both total offense and defense by more than a field. Take the points. |
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11-04-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. NY Giants | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 43 m | Show | |
6* NFL *CA$H COW* on Steelers +3.5
The Key: I'll gladly take the Steelers catching better than a field goal as they haven't lost by more than 3 points in their last 6 games. Pittsburgh has had no trouble getting up for elite competition. In fact, it is on a 34-15 ATS run against teams that have won at least 75% or their games. It has won these games by an average of 2.8 points. The Giants, on the other hand, are only 4-16 ATS in home games against teams with a winning percentage between 51% and 60%. They have lost to these teams by an average of 3.2 points. Pittsburgh is the better defensive team and Roethlisberger is playing the QB position better than Eli Manning right now. Take the Steelers. |
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11-04-12 | Denver Broncos v. Cincinnati Bengals +4 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Bengals +4
The Key: Fully prepared following a bye and in desperation mode following 3 consecutive defeats, look for the Bengals to get the job done at home. The Broncos won big last week at home against the Saints and are being overvalued because of it. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a victory of more than 14 points. The Broncos have won the last 3 meetings in the series but all 3 games went right down to the wire. 2 of the wins came by 2 points or less, and they would have lost the other had a deflected prayer not found Brandon Stokley with just 11 ticks left on the clock. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four matchups. It is also worth mentioning that the Broncos haven't been the same team on the road where they are 1-2 and could easily be 0-3 (trailed SD 24-0 at halftime). Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Bet the Bengals. |
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11-01-12 | Kansas City Chiefs +9 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Chiefs +9
The Key: The Chargers are not 10 points better than the Chiefs if Kansas City takes care of the football. After turning it over 6 times in the first meeting, you know Kansas City will be placing an emphasis on ball security. San Diego has struggled so much on offense lately that Kansas City isn't going to take a risky approach. I expect the Chiefs to try and grind it out. The Chargers have averaged just 286.5 yards or offense over their last two games. The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a loss. Also, the Chiefs are on an incredible 23-6 ATS run after giving up 25.0 points or more in two straight games. They have actually won by an average of 2.2 points in these contests. Take the points. |
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10-29-12 | San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals +7.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
7* MNF Game of the Month on Cardinals +7.5
The Key: The Cardinals have lost 3 in a row, but 2 of those were on the road. They lost by 7 points on the road last week to a Minnesota team that defeated the 49ers by 11. So there's no shame in that loss. Arizona has been at its best at home where it is 3-1 this season with its lone loss coming by only 3 points in overtime. The Cardinals won the most recent meeting in the series 21-19 at home as they held the 49ers to only 233 yards of offense. Arizona is one of the best defensive teams in the NFL, and I expect it to have plenty of success slowing down a struggling 49er offense that has scored just 16 total points in its last 2 games. Arizona is 26-11 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses the last two decades. It has won by an average score of 22.0 to 21.1 in these spots. It is also 6-0 ATS all-time under coach Whisenhunt in home games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better. The Cards have won in these spots by an average score of 33.7 to 22.2. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the Cardinals are even 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the points. |
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10-28-12 | New Orleans Saints v. Denver Broncos -6 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 74 h 17 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Broncos -6
The Key: The Broncos have been a sweet investment following a bye as they are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 in this situation and have won these by an average of 8.8 points. They have also won their last 3 against the Saints by an average of 12.7 points. Denver is 2-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to a Houston team that looks to be a Super Bowl contender. The 2 wins came by double digits. Not only does the bye week give them an advantage, but so does the high altitude which has given visitors problems for years. I also expect Denver's 4th-ranked passing offense (290.8 ypg) to be way too much for a defense that is last in the league with 465.5 ypg allowed. Lay the number. |
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10-28-12 | Miami Dolphins +3 v. NY Jets | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 67 h 47 m | Show | |
6* AFC Game of the Week on Dolphins +3
The Key: The Dolphins are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall and 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 road games. Look for them to continue to make money for their backers as they go up against a New York defense that hasn't been able to stop the run to save its life. The Jets are giving up an average of 147 rushing yards on 4.6 yards per carry, and these numbers increase to 162 and 5.3 at home. These numbers weigh in our favor as the Dolphins are 7-0 ATS versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry - over the last 2 seasons. Take the points. |
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10-28-12 | Atlanta Falcons v. Philadelphia Eagles -1 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 48 m | Show |
7* NFC Game of the Year on Eagles -1
The Key: Since Andy Reid was made head man of the Philadelphia Eagles, there's one thing we've been able to count on - his teams being ready to go following a bye week. In fact, the Eagles are 13-0 all-time under Reid in games immediately following a bye week. It is also worth noting that the Eagles are 6-0 SU and ATS all-time under Reid in home games against the Atlanta Falcons. They have won these 6 by an average of 15.5 points. The Eagles' offensive and defensive numbers are superior as they rank 7th and 11th in the league in total offense and defense, respectively. The Falcons rank 13th and 22nd, respectively in total offense and defense. Expect the Eagles to hand Atlanta its first loss of the season. |
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10-25-12 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 36-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
7* NFL Thursday Night Game of the Year on Buccaneers +7
The Key: The Bucs are showing major value at +7 considering they haven't lost a game by more than 7 points all season. Plus, they are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 games against the Vikings. Also, they have either won or lost by 7 points or fewer in 11 straight meetings with Minnesota. Plays against home teams with a good offense that averages 335-370 ypg and is matched up against a team with a poor defense that allows 370 or more ypg are 36-15 ATS the last 5 seasons. These teams have been favored by an average of 7.3 points but have only won by an average of 5.5. Bet the Bucs. |
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10-22-12 | Detroit Lions +7 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Lions +7
The Key: Each of Detroit's 3 losses have come by 8 points or less, and I fully expect it to take Chicago right down to the wire tonight. The Lions have either won of lost by 5 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Bears and are 3-1 ATS in those games as a result. The Bears have the NFL's top-ranked run defense (65.8 ypg) but Detroit is 10-1 ATS versus teams with excellent rushing defenses that allow 70 rushing yards or less per game the last two decades. It has defeated these teams by an average of 4.9 points. Also, Chicago is just 4-17 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games the last two decades. It has lost by an average of 4.3 points in these games. The Bears have yet to see an offense this season that's as explosive as Detroit's. We'll take the points. |
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10-21-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 76 h 34 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Steelers pk
The Key: I'm confident the Steelers are the better football team, and I expect them to continue their dominance of the Bengals in this highly motivated spot. In danger of falling to 2-4 and losing even more ground on Baltimore, the Steelers will show up in a big way here. Pittsburgh is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last 4 meetings with those wins coming by an average of 14.3 points. All four victories came by at least six points. The Steelers have been an awesome investment in bounce back spots as they are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss. The Bengals, meanwhile, have been a poor investment when entering with no momentum. They are 0-5-3 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. They are also a lousy 0-6-2 ATS in their last 8 division games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Steelers are on a 13-3-1 ATS run in their last 17 in Cincinnati. Take Pittsburgh. |
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10-21-12 | Washington Redskins +6.5 v. NY Giants | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 3 m | Show | |
6* NFC East *CA$H COW* on Redskins +6.5
The Key: The reigning Super Bowl champs are being overvalued here because of last week's impressive win in San Francisco. The fact of the matter is Washington won both of last season's meetings convincingly (by 14 and 13 points), and I believe they are a better team with Robert Griffin III at the controls. The Redskins have been a terrific investment in this point spread range at 60-39 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992. The Redskins have the second-best running attack in the NFL and are coming off a 183-yard performance on the ground last week. That's good for us as the Skins are on a 13-2 ATS run in road games after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game. They are also on a 6-2 ATS run versus NFC East foes. Take the points. |
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10-21-12 | Tennessee Titans v. Buffalo Bills -3 | Top | 35-34 | Loss | -125 | 68 h 5 m | Show |
7* AFC Game of the Month on Bills -3
The Key: The Titans cannot be trusted on the road. They have lost each of their three road games this season by an average of 25.0 points. Going back to last season, the Titans are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. They also haven't been able to string together back-to-back solid performances so the fact they enter off a win over Pittsburgh doesn't bode well for them. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win. The biggest thing here is we can expect coach Chan Gailey to have his Bills ready to go as they are at home and have a chance to go above the .500 mark. They enter with a little momentum on their side following a win at Arizona that ended a two-game skid. NFL teams under the direction of Gailey have never lost at home when entering a contest with losses in two of their last three games. They are a perfect 7-0 ATS all-time in this situation with an average winning margin of 13.3 points. Both teams have struggled defensively, but Buffalo is the superior offensive team. It has one of the best running attacks in the NFL while Tennessee has the worst. Expect the Bills to run away with a comfortable home win Sunday. |
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10-18-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. San Francisco 49ers -7 | Top | 6-13 | Push | 0 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on 49ers -7
The Key: We get the 49ers in a great situation tonight. No team in the NFL has responded better following an upset defeat the past few seasons, and you can bet they'll be hungry following Sunday's ugly loss to the Giants. The Niners are on a 7-0 ATS run after suffering an upset defeat in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. They've held their opponents to just 10.7 points on average in these games while scoring an average of 22.6 points. Additionally, San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last 3 home games against the Seahawks. These 3 wins have come by 16, 19 and 13 points. The 49ers are the best defensive team in the NFL while the Seahawks rank in the bottom 4 on offense. The Seattle defense has been good, but it won't be able to completely shut down a San Francisco offense that ranks 7th in the league. Expect the 49er defense to dominate this one and for the offense to do enough to cover the spread. Lay the points. |
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10-15-12 | Denver Broncos +1 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Broncos +1
The Key: San Diego is 3-2 while Denver is 2-3 but the Broncos have been the more impressive team as they have showed well against stiffer competition. San Diego's pass defense, which ranks 22nd in the NFL with 260 yards allowed per game, has been suspect. I believe it will be the downfall of the Chargers tonight as Peyton Manning is dialed in. He has passed for 1,005 yards with 8 TDs and no picks the past 3 weeks. Fading home favorites that have failed to cover the spread in 2 of their last 3 games - a team winning between 51-60% of their games against a team with a losing record - has produced a 32-8 ATS record the last 10 seasons. Bet the Broncos. |
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10-14-12 | Green Bay Packers +3.5 v. Houston Texans | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 79 h 33 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Packers +3.5
The Key: This is a huge game for the Packers, who can get back to .500 with a win. I like them in this motivated spot as they go up against a Houston team playing on a short week. The Packers are 15-5 ATS under coach McCarthy as a road underdog of 7 points or less. They have never lost under coach McCarthy on the road versus good defensive teams that give up 17 points or less. They are 6-0 ATS all-time versus these teams and have defeated them by an average of 8.1 points. |
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10-14-12 | Oakland Raiders +9.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 71 h 3 m | Show | |
6* Raiders +9.5
The Key: Atlanta is clearly being overvalued here because of its 5-0 start. Look for an Oakland squad that has had an extra week to prepare to give the Falcons a game. Atlanta has only defeated 1 of its past 4 opponents by more than 7 points. The Falcons are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 home contests when checking in off 3 or more consecutive victories. They have actually lost by an average of 1.9 points in this spot. Plus, the Raiders are on a 5-2-1 ATS run versus teams with a winning record. Grab the points. |
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10-14-12 | St. Louis Rams v. Miami Dolphins -3 | Top | 14-17 | Push | 0 | 71 h 4 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Week on Dolphins -3
The Key: Miami is really playing well, and I expect it to take care of business at home against a St. Louis team that's 0-2 on the road this season. The Rams are one of the worst offensive teams in the NFL, and they might even be the worse now that top playmaker Danny Amendola is expected to be out at least a month. They won't be able to keep pace with Miami, which ranks in the top half of the league on offense. With Amendola out, the Rams will likely have to turn even more to Steven Jackson and the running game. However, they won't get much done on the ground this week against a defense that leads the NFL against the run with 61.4 ypg allowed. The Dolphins are on a 9-0 ATS run against team with a winning mark. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. And, fading any team with a winning record that checks in off an upset win at home against a division rival has produced a 68-27 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons. |
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10-11-12 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans +6.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
7* NFL *HEAVY HITTER* on Titans +6.5
The Key: Pittsburgh is 0-6 ATS lifetime under coach Mike Tomlin when up against teams with a turnover margin of -1 or worse per game. The Steelers have lost by an average score of 19.3 to 18.7 in these games. The Steelers are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0-8 ATS in their last road games played on a grass field. They have lost these 8 by an average score of 23.0 to 14.9. Take the Titans and the points. |
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10-08-12 | Houston Texans v. NY Jets +9 | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 0 m | Show |
7* Monday Night Football *HEAVY HITTER* on Jets +9
The Key: I'll gladly get behind the Jets catching close to double digits because underdogs or pickems that average 18.0 to 23.0 ppg, and are checking into a matchup with a team that averages 27.0-plus ppg, following a contest in which they were held to 9.0 points or less are 33-11 ATS since 1983. These dogs have only lost by 3.3 points on average in this scenario. Plus, the Texans are only 1-10 ATS all-time under coach Kubiak when matched up against teams that give up 27.0 points or more per game. They have actually lost to these foes by an average of 0.6 points. The Jets are a more talented football team than they showed last week, especially on the defensive side of the football. They'll show up tonight. Take the points. |
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10-07-12 | San Diego Chargers v. New Orleans Saints -3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show | |
6* Sunday Night Football *CA$H COW* on Saints -3
The Key: The Saints are 0-4, but they're not going to fold, especially not at home, where they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. teams with a winning road record. New Orleans is 6-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Saints are also on a 7-0 ATS run at home vs. teams that allow 235 or more passing yards/game. They are on a 6-0 ATS run in home games after gaining 400 or more total yards in each of their last 3 games. This is the week the Saints finally put it all together. Lay the points. |
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10-07-12 | Denver Broncos +7 v. New England Patriots | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 40 m | Show | |
6* AFC *CA$H COW* on Broncos +7
The Key: I really like the Broncos, who haven't lost by more than 6 points this season and are beginning to jell, catching more than 6 points. Playing on road teams - slow starting team that has been outscored by 5-plus points per game in the first half after allowing 6 points or less last game - has produced a 23-4 ATS record the last 29 years. This system is 7-1 ATS the last 10 seasons. Basically, this system reveals that Denver has the defense to stay in the game even if the offense comes out slow. I don't think Denver will start slow against a New England defense that has really struggled in pass coverage. Take the points as Peyton Manning has himself a big day through the air. |
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10-07-12 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -120 | 69 h 20 m | Show |
7* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Year on Steelers -3
The Key: The Eagles, who are 0-3-1 ATS this season, are fortunate to be 3-1 as they have yet to put it all together. Their inconsistent play will catch up with them today as they go up against a hungry and prepared Steelers squad. The Steelers have been money coming out of a bye as they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week. They are also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games. Pittsburgh has also been money in bounce back spots. It is 9-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 28.6 to 9.0. It is also 8-0 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread over the last 3 seasons and 6-0 ATS in home games after playing their last game on the road over the last 2 seasons. Expect the Steelers to roll behind a dominant performance from their defense. |
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10-04-12 | Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams +2 | Top | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
7* NFC West Game of the Month on Rams +2
The Key: Arizona is getting treated like a 4-0 team by laying points on the road when it could easily be 2-2. The Cards were extremely fortunate to win at home last week as they gave up 480 yards of offense to a Miami team led by a rookie QB. Not only does the defense all of sudden look very human, the offense is one of the worst in the NFL. It ranks next-to-last in total offense with just 271.8 yards per game. The fact St. Louis is coming off an upset win at home over Seattle bodes extremely well for us. Consider that teams coached by Jeff Fishers are 7-0 ATS all-time following an upset win over a division rival as a home underdog. His teams have won by an average score of 27.1 to 19.0 in this situation. Take the Rams. |
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10-01-12 | Chicago Bears +3.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 34-18 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
7* MNF *HEAVY HITTER* on Bears +3.5
The Key: Fading Dallas as a favorite has been a golden investment. Doing so has produced a powerful 17-4 ATS mark the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 at home and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Monday games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Take the points as the Bears have an excellent chance to win this one straight up. |
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09-30-12 | Miami Dolphins +6.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 23 m | Show |
7* NFL Game of the Month on Dolphins +6.5
The Key: The Dolphins, who are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, are showing a ton of value catching this many points as they have an excellent chance to win this game straight up. Fading favorites that are coming off an upset win as a home underdog, if they have a winning record on the season, has produced a perfect 7-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. The Cardinals are being overvalued because of their 3-0 start, but I'm far from sold on them. They have had fewer total yards than their opponent in each of their games, and they rank 31st in the NFL in total offense with just 263.3 yards per game. It's going to be mighty tough for them to cover this number with no more offense than they've been able to generate. Take the points. |
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09-30-12 | Seattle Seahawks v. St. Louis Rams +3 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 91 h 18 m | Show | |
6* Rams +3
The Key: Expect a letdown from Seattle following Monday's emotional win. The Seahawks are 10-21-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU win and 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 road games. Playing against favorites off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season, has produced a 19-3 ATS mark the last 10 seasons, a 13-1 ATS mark the last 5 seasons and a 7-0 ATS record the last 3 seasons. |
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09-30-12 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 67 h 54 m | Show | |
6* Panthers +7.5
The Key: Playing against home teams - an opportunistic team (2.5+ TO/game forced) against a team with <=1.25 TO/game forced - after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers has produced a 22-4 ATS record since 1983. This system is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last 10 seasons. |
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09-30-12 | New England Patriots -4 v. Buffalo Bills | 52-28 | Win | 100 | 67 h 53 m | Show | |
6* Patriots -4
The Key: Playing on favorites that have covered the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a team winning between 25%-40% of their games playing a team with a winning record, has produced a 37-11 ATS mark since 1983. This system is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, New England is 6-0 ATS versus good rushing teams that average >=4.5 rushing yards/carry over the last 3 seasons. It has defeated these opponents by an average score of 38.7 to 18.5. Lastly, the Pats are 13-4 ATS in road games over the last 3 seasons. |