Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-01-18 | Brewers -131 v. Reds | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -131 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
8-unit Play Take #903 Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds (1:10pm EST) The Reds are getting a lot of attention after a recent red hot 12-3 run. But they're still in last place and miles from where the Brewers are. Matt Harvey is slated to go for the Reds here and I don't think he's going to survive the season in the starting rotation. He's put up a horrible 5.28 ERA in 2018 and things are just as bad as they were with the Mets. Milwaukee goes with Freddy Peralta here. The young hurler is 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.71 WHIP in his first four major league starts. Not bad for a 22-year old. This is a colossal mismatch and I have the line almost 30 cents higher. Play Milwaukee in our National League Game of the Year. |
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06-15-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -127 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -127 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Chicago White Sox over Detroit Tigers (8:10pm EST) On only the Tigers could starter Mike Fiers find a job this season. The 32-year old right-hander has had a tough go of it the last couple of seasons and he hasn’t been very good for Detroit this season either. He’s 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA, but Fiers is striking out just 6.7 batters per nine innings and he’s seen a considerable drop in his groundball rate as well. I’m selling high on this Tigers team right not as well. Detroit is only four games below the .500 mark right now and that’s a far cry from where they’ll be come season’s end. Miguel Cabrera is now lost for the season and there are just too many holes in the lineup and pitching staff to continue counting on veterans past their prime. The White Sox, meanwhile, has been playing better after a very rough start to the 2018 campaign. Chicago is 6-4 in its last 10 games and there’s marked improvement from some of their youngsters. The White Sox are a couple of years away from contending, but they’ll continue to get better as the season goes on. Take the White Sox on Friday. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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06-09-18 | Mariners v. Rays -135 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Tampa Bay Rays over Seattle Mariners (4:10pm EST) Blake Snell is no long a future MLB ace - he already is one. The 25-year old southpaw is 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA and he's still getting better. Snell has one of the best curveballs in the game and has the pitching acumen of a cagey veteran. On Saturday he'll go up against the Seattle Mariners. What a season it has been for the first place M's. They're 40-23, but they're run differential is barely ahead of the amount of games they are above the .500 mark at just +23. Clearly, Seattle has had plenty of good fortune to get to this point. I'm worried about the lineup continuing to produce without Robinson Cano. There are several guys hitting above their abilities and that's not going to last all season. Felix Hernandez goes in this one and I think he's closer to hanging it up than people think. King Felix has a 5.33 ERA and his peripherals continue to deteriorate. At this point he's just hurting his team. Take Tampa in our Saturday big play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-30-18 | Cubs -122 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -122 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Chicago Cubs over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs haven’t hit their stride yet in 2018. But they’re still sitting in second place in the NL Central and have the best run differential in the National League by a pretty healthy margin. The offense has been terrific thus far and the bullpen has been lights out as well. It’s the starting rotation that has been the biggest problem in Chicago, but that won’t be an issue on Wednesday. Kyle Hendricks gets the ball for the Cubs and he’s rock solid once again with a 3.16 ERA in 11 starts. He isn’t flashy but he doesn’t walk many and knows how to induce weak contact. The Pirates counter with Joe Musgrove, who will make just his second major league start this season. Musgrove was terrific in his debut with the Pirates last time out versus the Cardinals. He went seven innings without allowing a run and issues just five hits and a walk. I think too much emphasis is being placed on that one start, however, as the line for this game is about 10-15 cents too low. Take the Cubs on the road as small favorites here. |
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05-27-18 | Reds v. Rockies -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Colorado Rockies over Cincinnati Reds (3:10pm EST) This is the game where it hits the fans for Matt Harvey. I’m not a believer that he has all of a sudden figured things out after getting traded to the Reds. His 2.57 ERA with Cincinnati is not indicative of how he’s pitched in his three starts with them. Harvey has a 4.12 xFIP in those games and benefited from a .231 BABIP and 88% strand rate. Now he goes to Coors Field where his low groundball rate is going to hurt him badly. The Rockies are quietly in first place in the NL West despite playing more road games than any team in baseball up to this point. Since they have one of the biggest home field advantages in the game, that bodes well for Colorado going forward. German Marquez gets the ball for the Rockies in this one. He comes in with a 4.62 ERA but that’s mostly due to a couple of poor outings in Coors. The Rockies should be favored by at least 20 cents higher in this one. Take Colorado. |
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05-24-18 | Astros v. Indians +117 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Cleveland Indians over Houston Astros (6:10pm EST) The Cleveland Indians have put together a mediocre season up to this point. They're just 24-23 coming into today, although that is good enough for the top spot in the AL Central. But the Tribe are showing some signs of life. They just completely an impressive two-game sweep of the Cubs in which their staff allowed just one run. The bats are also starting to wake up. This team is too good to stay around the .500 mark for much longer. Houston is 32-18 and clearly the best team in baseball. They've won six of seven and have looked impressive in doing so. However, I don't think they are justified laying this price in Cleveland. Charlie Morton has been great at 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA, but his peripherals show that he's been fortunate. He deserves an ERA over 3.00 at this point. Mike Clevinger goes to the mound for the Tribe. Clevinger has been terrific with a 2.87 ERA. He has a tremendous groundball rate and he knows how to pitch to contact. I like Cleveland as the home underdog. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-08-18 | Indians v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 120 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Milwaukee Brewers over Cleveland Indians (7:40pm EST) The Milwaukee Brewers won 86 games last season and they’re on pace to win even more than that in 2018. Still, they get no love in the betting markets. On Tuesday, Milwaukee is a huge underdog at home to the Indians. Sure, Corey Kluber is on the mound. But this is a Cleveland team that is right at the .500 mark this season and has shown some vulnerabilities offensively and in the bullpen. The Brewers trot out Wade Miley for this contest, which doesn’t exactly get bettors all excited. I get that, but the Brewers have done well working with pitchers and Miley looked good in his first outing in a Brewers uniform last time out. This line is about 20 cents too high, so we’re on Milwaukee here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-27-18 | White Sox v. Royals -115 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Kansas City Royals over Chicago White Sox (8:15pm EST) The Kansas City Royals aren’t the same team they’ve been in recent years. They lost their two best players from last year’s roster in Eric Hosmer and Lorenzo Cain. They were also without Salvador Perez for some time, who just came back from an injury. Getting Perez back was big and they still have Mike Moustakas, who is putting up phenomenal numbers so far. Kansas City has the worst record in the American League, but I don’t expect that to continue. That’s because their opponent on Friday, the Chicago White Sox, are worse. Chicago has one of the youngest teams in baseball and there are holes all over the roster. They’re on the right track from a rebuilding standpoint, but it’s going to get worse before it gets better. The Royals have a big edge on the mound here with Danny Duffy going up against Reynaldo Lopez. Duffy has started slow, but he’s one of the more underrated arms in the league. Lopez comes in with a 1.50 ERA in four starts, but he’s been extremely fortunate. He has a 4.23 FIP and a 5.01 xFIP. He’s stranded a ridiculous 91% of runners and has a 7% HR/FB rate – both of which are unsustainable. Take Kansas City here at home. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-23-18 | A's -123 v. Rangers | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Oakland A’s over Texas Rangers (8:05 pm EST) The Texas Rangers are a banged up unit right now. They’re missing their double play combination of Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus along with a few arms from their pitching staff. They’ve had to plug several guys into the lineup who just aren’t ready and it’s led to a rough 8-15 start to the 2018 campaign. On Monday, Texas lefty Matt Moore toes the rubber against the A’s. Moore has fallen apart in recent years and it’s surprising that he’s still making starts in the big leagues every five days. Moore posted a 5.43 ERA in 2015, a 4.08 ERA in 2016, a 5.52 ERA in 2017 and has started 2018 with a 5.59 ERA. His control has gotten gradually worse and there doesn’t seem to be any signs of hope for the 28-year old. Meanwhile, the A’s are off to a solid 11-11 start and have won six of their last seven overall (including two of three over Boston). Both their pitching and hitting are clicking right now. Trevor Cahill goes for Oakland and he’s coming off of a really nice effort the last time out versus the White Sox (7 innings, 0 runs, 5 hits and 8 strikeouts). Oakland is the right side in Monday’s game. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-20-18 | Giants v. Angels -134 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -134 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Angels over San Francisco Giants (10:05pm EST) The San Francisco Giants had big problems scoring runs last season. They finished 14th in the National League in runs scored last year. So they decided to add Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria in the offseason in an effort to shore up the offense. It hasn’t worked. The Giants are now dead last in the National League in runs scored and McCutchen and Longoria have played poorly. This is an aging team that has finally hit the proverbial wall in their playing careers. On the other hand, the Angels have been sparked by Shohei Ohtani and the team is off to a great 13-5 start. There are no longer any holes in the lineup and Mike Trout doesn’t have to do it all by himself. Andrew Heaney goes to the hill for the Halos on Friday. Heaney has been injured for the majority of the last two seasons and now he’s as healthy as he has been since 2015 when he posted a 3.49 ERA in 18 starts. He struck out seven batters in five innings of work in his only start this season and I think he’s going to be an asset to the Angels’ rotation. Derek Holland goes for the Giants. Holland doesn’t deserve a spot in a big-league rotation, but when Madison Bumgarner went down with an injury, San Francisco was desperate. Holland has a terrible 4.60 ERA in three starts this season, despite all of them being played in strong pitcher-friendly parks. He won’t last much longer in the rotation. Take the Angels in our MLB Game of the Week. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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04-18-18 | Red Sox +111 v. Angels | Top | 9-0 | Win | 111 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #925 Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) Two teams off to hot starts will square off in Anaheim as the Angels host the Red Sox. The Angels are an impressive 13-4 to open the 2018 campaign and have a +39 run differential. The Red Sox are even better at 14-2 with a +51 run differential. Much of the success of the Angels is because of phenom Shohei Ohtani. The Halos are 10-1 in games in which he appears as a hitter or pitcher. Without him, just 3-3 overall. Ohtani won't be in the lineup tonight due to a blister problem. The BoSox go with Rick Porcello and he's been amazing this season, going 3-0 with a 1.83 ERA in 19.2 innings of work. Tyler Skaggs has been equally as good for the Angels going 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 16 innings. I believe more in Porcello and I think Boston sports the better lineup as well. And with no Ohtani, the Angels are a mediocre bunch. Take the Red Sox tonight. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-17-18 | Rockies v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Colorado Rockies/Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER (7:05pm EST) The Colorado Rockies were tops in the National League in runs scored last season and have been near the top for years. Commentators consistently talk about how dangerous their lineup is and how tough they are to face. They consistently get mentioned in discussions about the best lineups in the league, but I don’t think that’s the case. The Coors Field effect is well-documented, but I don’t think people understand just how big of an impact it has. Last season, the Rockies were 12th in runs scored on the road and 1st at home – and that translated to the most productive offense overall. That’s very telling. Road numbers are better measures for Colorado because park factors are no longer much of an issue. This isn’t a great Rockies lineup, and now they’re without their leader and best producer in Nolan Arenado (suspended). He’s one of the better hitters in baseball and now teams can pitch around guys like Charlie Blackmon without the protection. The Pirates are also a little banged up as Josh Harrison is out and can’t set the table anymore. The Pirates currently lead the National League in runs scored, but they have gone up against some pretty weak staffs in the early going (Cincinnati, Detroit, Minnesota). All signs point to a lower scoring game on Tuesday, so we’re on the UNDER here. |
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04-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +104 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 104 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #910 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (9:40pm EST) The Los Angles Dodgers haven’t looked good early on. In their opening four-game series of the season against the Giants, Los Angeles was not able to muster very much offense (shutout in the first two contests). I think some of their struggles are due to the postseason hangover from last year. The Dodgers went all the way to the seventh game of the World Series and teams that play that deep into the season typically start a big sluggish. Arizona had a great 2017 winning 93 games, but were unfortunately overshadowed by the Dodgers spectacular season. I think the D-Backs will be right in the mix again. They made some nice acquisitions brining in Steven Souza, Jarrod Dyson, Alex Avila and Brad Boxberger in the off-season. I’m a big fan of Taijuan Walker, who broke through with his best season of his young career in 2017 with a 3.49 ERA. Take Arizona as the home underdog in this one. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-14-17 | Indians v. Red Sox -105 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Boston Red Sox over Cleveland Indians (6:10pm EST) Red Sox starter Doug Fister struggled mightily early on but lately he's regained his old form. Over his last four outings, the veteran right-hander has a 3.57 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and a 15-4 K-BB ratio. The Red Sox have been red hot of late, registering a 10-1 record over their last 11 contests. That included a huge series they just won in Yankee Stadium. The offense has been clicking and they've gotten some great efforts from the starting rotation and bullpen over the last few weeks. Today they play a makeup game against the Indians and the Red Sox and this one should favor Boston. The Indians have to travel up to Boston from Tampa to play this single game, before heading back on the road to Minnesota. It's obviously not an ideal situation for the Tribe, while the Red Sox just go back home from New York to get ready for this one. Cleveland sends Trevor Bauer to the bump today. Overall it's been a tough season for Bauer, but he has pitched much better of late. But today he gets a tougher challenge in Fenway Park against a surging BoSox lineup. I like Boston to get the job done in our MLB Game of the Week. |
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08-09-17 | Orioles v. Angels +121 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 121 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles (3:35pm EST) We notched a winner with the Angels last night and are going back to the well again here tonight. The Orioles are just a different team on the road, and are just 21-34 away from Camden this season. The Angels are quietly still in the playoff hunt, led by superstar Mike Trout. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for the O's today and he's basically been a bust. Big things were expected of the right-hander, but Gausman comes in with a hefty 5.15 ERA. You could assume that a lot of that damage, but he actually has been much worse on the road this season (5.77 ERA). The Angels counter with youngster Troy Scribner. This will be just the second big league start for Scribner, but he's a crafty hurler who knows how to pitch. This price is at least 10 cents off, so we're on the Halos again Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-08-17 | Orioles v. Angels -112 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels have been flying under the radar a bit this season. They're probably not going to be a playoff team (although they are only three games out of the second wild card), but Halos are a respectable 55-58 on the season and that includes missing Mike Trout for over a month. Parker Bridwell gets the ball for them tonight against the Orioles. Bridwell is 5-1 with a 3.20 ERA in 59 innings of work. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he induces weak contact and doesn't get himself into too much trouble. The newly-acquired Jeremy Hellickson goes for Baltimore. His numbers in Philadelphia this season were not good, and I don't think coming over to Baltimore is going to help at all. The Angels are a better team right now and the O's have really struggled on the road at 21-33. Play the Halos at home today. |
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08-07-17 | Padres v. Reds -109 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Cincinnati Reds over San Diego Padres (7:10pm EST) We're into the dog days of the summer and the San Diego Padres may be a little more gassed than usual for today's game. That's because they played 12 innings yesterday in Pittsburgh and had to jump on a plane to Cincinnati afterwards. To make matters worse, they lost 5-4 on a walk-off home run by Sean Rodriguez, who just returned to the Pirates. The Pads have exceeded expectations this season in the win column, but they do have the worst run differential in baseball by a pretty wide margin. The Reds have been in the NL Central cellar for most of the season, but they've held their own at home (26-30). Take the Reds in today's matchup. |
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08-03-17 | Tigers v. Orioles -134 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -134 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #962 Baltimore Orioles over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles have won five straight games as they try to get back into the wild card race in the American League. The O's have been dominant at home this season, posting a 33-21 mark (the most wins in the AL). The Tigers roster is depleted after the trade deadline. They traded away JD Martinez along with Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. This line should be about 10-15 cents higher, so we're on Baltimore today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-29-17 | Rays v. Yankees -153 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 0 m | Show |
8-unit Play Take #916 New York Yankees (-150) over Tampa Bay Rays (1:05pm EST) Yankees' rookie pitcher Caleb Smith has a 8.10 ERA in just 6.2 innings of work, but manager Joe Girardi said that Smith ?earned another turn in the rotation.? The 26-year old throws hard and has some pretty good stuff. He struck out seven batters in those 6.2 innings and has strong strikeout numbers in the minor leagues at every level. This will be his first outing at home. The Yankees are second in the AL in runs scored and at home they have a league-best .833 OPS with 84 home runs (also tops in the AL). Needless to say, this lineup likes to hit here. Blake Snell of the Rays was supposed to be a potential ace and he still may be at some point. But right now he's a little lost out there on the mound. Snell is 0-6 with a 4.86 ERA and he's walking 5.4 batters per nine innings. Over his last five starts, Snell has issued 16 free passes in just 26.2 innings. His ERA over that span is 6.08 ERA. The Rays as a team are in a slump as well. Tampa is just 2-7 over their last nine contests and all but two of those games were at home. This is a big series for both teams, but I think the Yankees have a pretty big edge in this one. The line is about 20-25 cents short of where it should be, so we're on the Yankees in our AL Game of the Year. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-25-17 | Orioles +109 v. Rays | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm EST) It's hard not to respect what the Tampa Bay Rays have done with no superstars on their roster. Manager Kevin Cash utilizes all 25 guys on his squad and they're getting production from a lot of different spots right now. However, they've lost five straight games and really need a win today before things start to unravel. Jake Faria makes his ninth start of his career tonight in Tampa against the O's and he's been great so far in his rookie campaign. He has good stuff and is pitching like a veteran at the tender age of 23. The O's counter with Wade Miley, who has really struggled in 2017. Miley checks in with a 5.58 ERA and has had some major control problems. He's walking 5.4 batters per nine innings and it's gotten worse of late. In addition, the O's have really struggled away from Camden Yards this season (18-30). Take Tampa tonight in our 7-unit MLB Game of the Month. |
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07-21-17 | Marlins v. Reds -108 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Cincinnati Reds over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) It's been a tough season for the Miami Marlins and the frustration finally came on a couple days ago. Giancarlo Stanton voiced his disgust with the team losing a series to the lowly Phillies after a 10-3 thrashing on Wednesday. Stanton commented in the postgame, ?If you can't win a series against the worst team in the league, there's not much going for you, right there.? The Marlins have now dropped five of six and the team is looking to move several players. Pitcher David Phelps was just moved to the Mariners and there are several teams eyeing AJ Ramos. Even several big names like Marcel Ozuna, Christian Yelich and Stanton have been discussed by some teams. Clearly the team isn't very focused right now and it's probably going to get worse before it gets better. The picture isn't too much brighter in Cincinnati, but at least there doesn't appear to be any unrest in the locker room. Take the Reds to get the job done in our MLB Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-12-17 | Reds +110 v. Padres | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #957 Cincinnati Reds over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds are playing respectable at 29-33 to open the 2017 season. It's certainly better than they were pegged in the spring, but it doesn't appear that anyone is buying in. The Reds are underdogs in San Diego tonight as they take on probably the worst team in the sport. The Padres are 24-40 and are heading into tonight's game on a 1-7 skid. In fact, the Pads have been getting trounced lately. Over those eight contests, San Diego has been outscored by a combined 68-26. That's about as ugly as it gets, and I'm pretty sure we can mark the Padres down for 100+ losses this season. Two awful pitchers get the ball tonight, but the Reds have the better offense and defense here. Take Cincinnati at a great price in our MLB Game of the Week. |
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06-09-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -128 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #910 Arizona Diamondbacks over Milwaukee Brewers (9:40pm EST) We are over a third of the way through the long marathon of a season, and it's time to declare that the Arizona Diamondbacks are in fact for real. They are 37-25 coming into today's action and have outscored their opponents by 72 runs this season. The Brewers are having a nice season as well, sitting atop the NL Central at 32-29 currently. However, I don't think the Brewers can sustain it long-term. They've had a favorable schedule to date, including far more home games than away games. The Brewers also have some major holes in the starting rotation and in the bullpen. Today's starter Zach Davies has struggled all season with a 4.69 ERA and 1.55 WHIP over his 12 starts. He's looked a little better of late, but I'm not sure he's ready to be a full-time starter at the major league level yet. Arizona counters with Randall Delgado today. He's making just his fourth start in 2017, working from the bullpen for the most part. Delgado owns a nice 3.24 ERA in 41.2 innings of work and has looked good over his last three starts, giving up just one run in each contest. He's fortunate that Ryan Braun is out of the lineup with an injury, which really changes things for Milwaukee. Arizona can now pitch around Eric Thames and try to let someone else on the roster beat them. The D-Backs head into today's series versus the Brewers on a three-game win streak and I think they extend it here. Take Arizona in our MLB Game of the Month. |
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06-04-17 | Rays v. Mariners -127 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Tampa Bay Rays (4:10pm EST) Look for the Seattle Mariners to make a run in June. They've played a ton of road games already this season, but they're mostly at Safeco Field this month and play much better their historically. This team also saw a lot of turnover in the offseason and it's taken some time to put all of the pieces together and figure out everybody's role. In addition, the Mariners have fought a lot of injuries in the early going but are mostly healthy now. Tampa Bay is off to a decent start at 29-29, but they are a couple of players short of competing for the postseason in 2017. Given their budgetary restrictions, that's not likely to happen. The Mariners have the edge on the mound today and I think they're the better team as well. Play Seattle here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -149 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Toronto Blue Jays over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) The Toronto Blue Jays have almost done it. After starting the season with an ugly 1-9 record, the Jays are just one game away from getting to the .500 mark. That's impressive considering that Josh Donaldson has missed the majority of the season and Edwin Encarnacion is in Cleveland. This Jays team still has plenty of firepower and the pitching staff has stepped up its game as well. Today's starter Marco Estrada is 4-2 with a tidy 3.15 ERA and continues to dominate with 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Considering he's averaged just 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings over his career, Estrada has definitely figured something out in 2017. He's also walking fewer batters and going deeper into games. Today he gets a true test against a loaded Yankees lineup. However, I'm not sure I'm a long-term believer in the Yankees just yet. They've gotten some off-the-charts kind of production from some places they didn't expect it, so a little regression is probably in order. Give me the Blue Jays at home today. |
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05-31-17 | Yankees v. Orioles -106 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Baltimore Orioles over New York Yankees (7:05pm EST) I'm still not a full believer in the New York Yankees. Their offense can't continue to put up these numbers, and there's trouble looming ahead in the rotation. One of the guys that's been struggling on the mound is today's starter Masahiro Tanaka. He comes in with a 5.86 ERA in 10 starts and hasn't looked comfortable out there. He may be pitching through an injury or may be having trouble with some mechanics. Baltimore's Chris Tillman has also had a really rough time this season (6.17 ERA). As a result, I think this one comes down to which offense can take advantage the most. The O's have been really good at Camden Yards this season and their hitters are built for this park. Value with the Orioles today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-23-17 | Marlins v. A's -130 | Top | 11-9 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Oakland A's over Miami Marlins (10:05pm EST) The Miami Marlins are off to a brutal 15-28 start. They clearly have more talent than that, but right now things aren't clicking and superstar Giancarlo Stanton has voiced his frustration on a couple of occasions. They'll eventually get it going, but right now we're going to continue fading away. The Oakland A's are a respectable 20-24 in the tough AL West. It's probably the most competitive division in baseball overall. The A's have the edge on the mound today with Jesse Hahn over Jose Urena, and we're taking Oakland today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-21-17 | Diamondbacks -118 v. Padres | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres (4:40pm EST) This is just another fade of the San Diego Padres. The betting markets don't think they are a terrible team, which they certainly are. You'll see much higher lines against them as the season wears on, but for the meantime there is value on their opponents. Today's starter Clayton Richard doesn't belong in a big league rotation at this point in his career. Richard is 2-5 with a 4.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, despite the fact they half of his starts are in pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Take the Arizona Diamondbacks in today's matchup. |
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05-15-17 | Braves v. Blue Jays -126 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Toronto Blue Jays over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm EST) After a horrible 1-10 start to the 2017 campaign, the Toronto Blue Jays have found their groove. The Jays have won five straight and seven of eight games against some pretty good competition. The offense is missing some key guys, but the pitching staff has clearly stepped it up in recent weeks. Today Mark Bolsinger makes his second start of the year for Toronto. He's coming off of a forgettable year with the Dodgers, but Bolsinger was great in Triple-A this season and looked good against the Indians last week. Today he faces a slumping Braves offense. Atlanta has lost eight of 11 and heads to Toronto for a rare series with the Jays. The American League has dominated the National League once again this season, with a 35-21 record thru Sunday. That win percentage equates to a 101-win team over 162 games. Bartolo Colon gets the ball for the Braves and he's been horrific so far in 2017. Colon comes in with a 7.22 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in seven starts. His control isn't as sharp as it's been in recent years and location is the entire key to Colon's game. I look for the red hot Jays to bounce Colon early and gain an early advantage that they should hold onto. Play Toronto in our MLB Game of the Year. |
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05-12-17 | Astros v. Yankees +107 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #916 New York Yankees over Houston Astros (7:05pm EST) The New York Yankees are for real. Not only are they 21-11, but they are backing it up with the best run differential in all of baseball at +55 runs. Much of their damage has been done at home, where the Yanks are an impressive 12-4. Today they're in Yankees Stadium versus the first place Houston Astros. Jordan Montgomery gets the ball for New York and has been impressive in his five starts, posting a 3.81 ERA in 28.1 innings of work. He's also a left-hander, which is a nice advantage at home with the short dimensions out in leftfield. The Astros counter with right-hander Lance McCullers. It's hard not to like what McCullers has done this season. He owns a nice 3.40 ERA and has some exceptional peripherals, including a 10.6 strikeout rate per innings. He's a future ace, but there's going to be some bumps along the way. The Yankees lead the American League in runs scored and will give McCullers all he can handle today. This should be a good, but I think the Yankees come out on top in our MLB Game of the Week. |
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05-10-17 | Red Sox +115 v. Brewers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 Boston Red Sox over Milwaukee Brewers (8:10pm EST) The Boston Red Sox haven't hit their stride yet in 2017, but they will. The roster is loaded and it's only a matter of time. Meanwhile, the betting markets are treating the Sox like they're an average team. Today in Milwaukee they are an underdog. Kyle Kendrick gets the ball for Boston and he had an excellent audition this spring with a 2.18 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 33 innings of work. The team has been working with him on his secondary stuff and I think Kendrick could be an asset for this club. The Brewers haven't been hitting as much lately and I think there are potential problems with their bullpen. This series is going to be a good measuring stick for this team, but I think Boston gets this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-02-17 | Rockies -108 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Colorado Rockies over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies sit atop the National League West division and I think they have a chance to stay there for a bit. New manager Bud Black has these guys believing that they can win and the everyday lineup will strike fear in even the most confident of pitchers. One of the reasons the Rockies have been successful this season is due to their winning ways on the road. They've really struggled away from Coors Field historically, but they are off to a nice 9-4 road record so far in 2017. Right-hander Tyler Chatwood gets the ball for Colorado today as the team faces the Padres. Chatwood hasn't been sharp so far this season but if he can limit the damage from home runs, he'll be just fine. So far this season he has given up seven home runs in five starts. Some of that is Coors Field (five homers allowed at home and just two on the road), so I think he'll be fine today in San Diego. The Padres go with Trevor Cahill, who came over from the Cubs in the offseason. I think Cahill is much better suited for the bullpen, but he'll get a long look in San Diego. His peripheral numbers are actually quite good right now, but I'll be surprised if he can keep it up. Take the Rockies to get this one. |
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04-29-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox +110 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (4:05pm EST) Great matchup today in Boston as the Red Sox host the Cubs in a potential World Series dream matchup. I mentioned yesterday how familiarity could be a big issue for the Cubs, who rarely travel to Fenway Park for a game. It's not an easy stadium to adjust to and it definitely impacts the game for unfamiliar opponents. John Lackey will get the ball for the Cubs as he goes up against his old team. Lackey has yet to get comfortable in 2017, posting a 4.88 ERA in his four starts. He's gotten a little wild at times and the home run ball has been an issue. That's not a good combination against a dangerous Red Sox lineup. Boston goes with knuckleballer Steven Wright today. Wright has been horrid so far this season with an ugly 8.66 ERA and 2.09 WHIP, but he will figure it out at some point. Last season he posted a 3.33 ERA and was an All-Star. He'll have a leg up on the Cubs today, who haven't seen a knuckler in quite some time. The Red Sox are 8-4 at home and I think they should be the favorite in this one. It's not often they are an underdog at home. Take Boston in our MLB Game of the Year. |
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04-28-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox +103 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 103 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Boston Red Sox over Chicago Cubs (7:10pm EST) The Chicago Cubs head into Boston for a rare meeting with the Red Sox. This is a potential World Series matchup and it will get a lot of fanfare over the weekend. Ballpark familiarity could play a big role today as Fenway Park isn't the easiest place to play for opponents - especially for teams that don't see it on a regular basis. The Cubs are favored with Jake Arrieta on the mound against Drew Pomeranz. I don't like what I've seen from Arrieta this season and during the second half of last season. His numbers are solid, but he hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was during his Cy Young campaign. The Red Sox will give him some problems and I think they win as a home underdog today. |
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04-24-17 | Reds v. Brewers -102 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Milwaukee Brewers over Cincinnati Reds (7:40pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds got off to a hot start to the 2017 season and they're now getting a lot more respect from the betting markets. However, they've cooled off considerably over the last 10 games going 3-7 with some really bad losses. That included three of four losses at home versus the Brewers last weekend. Now they head to Milwaukee to match up against the Brewers once again. Cincinnati is rebuilding for the future, as is Milwaukee. However, the Brewers seem to be much further along in their rebuilding efforts and most of the credit for that goes to the front office. Milwaukee General Manager David Stearns came over from the Astros organization and brought over a similar blueprint for success to the Brewers. They've brought in some underrated players including this year's big surprise Eric Thames. The big slugger spent the last three years in Japan and didn't seem to be getting much interest from other teams despite putting up some huge numbers. The Brewer scouted him extensively and now it appears that Thames could be a perennial All-Star. Smart organizations make these kinds of moves and I think the Brewers are going to be better than people think this season because of it. I like the pitching matchup today for Milwaukee, as veteran Matt Garza tries to make a strong first impression in 2017 after making a couple of mediocre minor league starts. The Reds counter with rookie Amir Garrett, who comes in with a sparkling 1.83 ERA in his first three starts. Garrett's minor league numbers have been nothing more than mediocre over the last five years, so don't expect him to become a strong starting pitcher out of nowhere. He needs time to develop and the league will start to hit him now that they have some more video to dissect. Take the Brewers at home in our National League Game of the Year. |
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04-20-17 | Diamondbacks -110 v. Padres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres (9:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres are going to be a good fade candidate all season long. Last season they lost 94 games and their roster this season isn't any better. They had a tough time filling out their rotation over the winter, and that led to signing Clayton Richard to fill a hole. Richard has been alright out of the bullpen over the last couple of seasons, but I'm not confident of his ability to navigate the lineup multiple times. He just doesn't have good enough stuff and his peripheral numbers are already showing it through his first three starts. Richard is striking out just 4.5 batters per nine innings while walking 3.2 batters. He's managed a respectable 3.60 ERA so far, but that will rise in a hurry if he can't improve on the K/BB ratio. The Diamondbacks are to a fast 10-6 start to the season with a nice +15 run differential. This team has the ability to compete for a playoff spot if they stay healthy and get good production from the bullpen. Today's starter Patrick Corbin owns a tidy 2.81 ERA this season, although he has had trouble with his K/BB ratio as well. However, I think Corbin figures it out as he has a great repertoire and just needs to put it all together. Take Arizona in this one. |
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04-18-17 | Diamondbacks -115 v. Padres | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Diego Padres (10:10pm EST) The San Diego Padres have the worst roster in baseball by far. They are 5-9 to open the season and they currently have the worst run differential in baseball at -23 runs. Don't expect things to get much better for the Pads. Today the linesmakers have this line close to even and that's a gift of a price when the Arizona Diamondbacks have the much better pitcher going. I'm looking for a huge bounce back season from Shelby Miller, who is striking out 10.1 batters per nine innings so far this season. I like Arizona in this one easy. |
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04-17-17 | Marlins v. Mariners -138 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Seattle Mariners over Miami Marlins (10:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins face a tough spot tonight as they travel cross country to Seattle to open a three-game series. This is the longest trip in baseball and they don't even get a day off before embarking in their West Coast roadie. The Marlins are off to a nice 7-5 start to the season, but it's tough to picture them being serious playoff contenders with the holes in their rotation. Today's starter Tom Koehler has a career 4.15 ERA, and half of those games were in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. Seattle has a potent lineup that has a little more balance this season and I think they'll give Koehler everything he can handle. The Mariners have won three straight games after a dismal opening two weeks. The M's notched an exciting ninth inning rally to beat the Rangers yesterday and complete the sweep. Today they send Ariel Miranda to the hill to make his third start of the 2017 season. Seattle is high on Miranda and his stuff is certainly better than his numbers indicate. He has had a problem with the home run ball, but pitching in Safeco Field should take care of that to a certain extent. We're taking Seattle in our Game of the Month. |
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04-06-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays +115 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm EST) If you haven't seen Blake Snell pitch yet, you need to watch him. The young 24-year old sports an old-fashioned 12-to-6 curveball that might be one of the better ones in the game already. He has a ton of poise at his young age and is a future ace of Tampa. He'll go up against a dangerous Toronto Blue Jays lineup today. But the Jays aren't the same without Edwin Encarnacion in the middle of the order. They're going to miss him a lot more than people think, as Jose Bautista is on the decline and they can pitch around Josh Donaldson now. Marcus Stroman takes the mound for Toronto and he had that memorable performance in the World Baseball Classic in the championship game. As a result, he might be getting a little bit too much love in the betting markets. Play the Rays today as the home underdog. Additional Plays |
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10-25-16 | Cubs -113 v. Indians | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 Chicago Cubs over Cleveland Indians (8:05pm EST) Game 1 of the World Series gets underway as two franchises starved of championships square off. The Cubs were clearly the best team in baseball all season long and I don’t think there was a particularly close second. They have it all – great starting pitching, a deep lineup, a strong bullpen, exceptional defense and a great manager. The Indians clearly have earned their way to this series, but the Cubs are the better team in nearly every phase of the game. The one area where you can say Cleveland has the advantage is the bullpen with Andrew Miller and company (not that the Cubs are chopped liver). However, with today’s starting pitching matchups, the bullpens aren’t going to be as big of a factor as they will be later in the series. Jon Lester and Corey Kluber are two of the best hurlers in baseball and you can probably count on seven innings or so from both of them. And as good as Kluber has been throughout his career, he doesn’t have the resume that Lester does – especially when you look at the postseason. Lester has been a rock in the playoffs throughout his career and this postseason is no exception. The Cubs also introduce a wild card tonight in Kyle Schwarber, who returns from a knee injury suffered in the first week of the season. Adding a hitter the caliber of Schwarber to an already dangerous lineup just doesn’t seem fair, but his power from the left side creates a great matchup against the Indians right-handed heavy pitching. The Indians have been off since last Wednesday and those six days may be enough to throw off their timing a bit. I expect some rust the first few innings and that combined with the better pitcher in Lester and better overall team in the Cubs, the only way to look is Chicago at this price. Take the Cubs. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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09-15-16 | Cardinals v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take St. Louis Cardinals/San Francisco Giants UNDER (10:10pm EST) Expect a playoff-type atmosphere in San Francisco tonight as the Giants host the Cardinals in the first of four games that will go a long way in determining who gets the NL Wild Card. These teams are separated by a single game in the standings and they've let the Mets into the race with their recent struggles. The Cardinals have been playing below .500 baseball since the end of July and have been dealt several big injury blows along the way. The Giants have been even worse as they are an abysmal 20-35 since the All-Star break. Scoring runs has been an issue for both clubs of late, so we expect a low scoring affair tonight. Adam Wainwright takes the hill for the Cards. He's not having a banner year, but lately the results have been much better for the veteran right-hander. Over his last three starts Wainwright owns a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP to go along with a 19-5 K-BB ratio. Johnny Cueto gets the ball for San Francisco in this one. Cueto has been amazing in 2016 and he almost always comes up big in big spots like tonight. The same can be said of Wainwright, so I expect both starters to keep the struggling offenses at bay. The last five games for the Cardinals have gone UNDER the total. For Giants games, the UNDER is 8-3 over their last 11. This one feels like a 3-2 type of contest, so we'll play the UNDER as our 8-unit MLB Total of the Year. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-16-16 | Twins v. Braves +120 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Atlanta Braves over Minnesota Twins (7:10pm EST) Two of the worst teams in baseball square off in Atlanta tonight as the Braves host the Twins. It hasn’t been a good season for either club, but these teams clearly haven’t given up. The Braves are 11-8 over their last 19 contests and are playing their best baseball of the season. Atlanta has a lot of quality young talent and they might be a little fresher than some of the more veteran teams at this point in the season. The Twins haven’t been playing that poorly since the All-Star break either, registering a .500 record since then. They too have some good young talent and it’s starting to come along nicely. Ervin Santana gets the ball for Minnesota today as he looks to continue his solid 2016 campaign. Santana comes in with a 3.62 ERA and 1.23 WHIP and has been locked in over the last month or so. The Braves trot out rookie Joel De La Cruz who has put up decent numbers between the starting rotation and bullpen. I don’t see much of an edge on either side in this game, so we’re going with the home underdog Braves today. |
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08-09-16 | Padres v. Pirates -139 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates over San Diego Padres (7:05pm EST) It’s been a mediocre season in Pittsburgh, but this isn’t the kind of team that is going to just give up down the stretch. We’re seeing discounted lines for the Pirates lately and today is certainly no exception. They’re at home versus an awful Padres team and are laying only -135. It’s not like San Diego has any kind of advantage on the mound, as Luis Perdomo and Chad Kuhl have been equally unimpressive in their first seasons. We’re keeping this one simple. The Pirates have just been downgraded too far, and this line is too good to pass up. Take the Pirates. |
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08-05-16 | Phillies v. Padres -109 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies (10:40pm EST) Both the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Diego Padres are playing for the future. But it certainly doesn’t appear that the Padres are dogging it the rest of the way in 2016. San Diego is a respectable 9-10 since the All-Star break and just won a series versus the Brewers where they outscored them by a combined 21-9 score. Getting rid of Matt Kemp last week might have been a blessing in disguise for the Pads. Kemp was a terrible defender in the field and didn’t have the kind of clubhouse attitude that you want on a young team. The Phillies have had a solid season overall, but they are in a tough spot tonight. This will be their 10th road game in their last 13 games. They just played back-to-back extra innings games in Philadelphia versus the Giants, and now travel cross country to begin this series. No question, their bullpen is going to be a bit fatigued today as well as some of the position players. Meanwhile, the Padres had a day off yesterday and that’s a pretty big advantage this time of year during the dog days of summer. The Phils have a small advantage as far as the starting pitchers go, but I don’t think that’s enough to justify where this line is at. San Diego should be a decided favorite, so we’ll gladly take the Pads as our Game of the Week. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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08-02-16 | Rangers v. Orioles +109 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 109 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Baltimore Orioles over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) The Texas Rangers made some huge moves at the trade deadline, bringing in Carlos Beltran, Jonathan Lucroy and Jeremy Jeffress. That’s a lot of talent and there’s no question that the Rangers are a better team with the additions. However, I think it could inflate their lines a little bit too much in the short-term. Today they’re favored in Baltimore against an Orioles team that has been amazing at home. In 2016, the O’s are 37-16 in Camden Yards – best in the big leagues. Yes they’re at a disadvantage as far as starting pitchers go in this game, but that’s almost always the case for Baltimore. Yu Darvish and Dylan Bundy go for their respective squads and both have been good in limited action. But if this game is tight late, the O’s have a big advantage in their bullpen. The middle relief is very good and when it comes to closers there might not be a better one in baseball. Zach Britton has a 0.00 ERA since the end of April and is at a miniscule 0.60 on the season. He’s producing an amazing 80% groundball rate to go along with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The O’s also have an edge when it comes to the lineup, so it’s a bit surprising they are underdogs today. Take Baltimore. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-30-16 | Red Sox -125 v. Angels | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #927 Boston Red Sox over Los Angeles Angels (9:05 PM, Saturday, July 30) The Boston Red Sox will look for back to back wins over the Los Angeles Angels when the two teams meet at Angel Stadium in Anaheim, CA on Saturday night. Drew Pomeranz (8-8, 2.84 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) will get the start for the Red Sox and he will be opposed by Hector Santiago (9-4, 4.28 ERA, 1.31 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the call on the hill for the Angels. Boston has posted a 7-3 record in their last ten games following a win and they have gone an excellent 15-7 in their last 22 games where they faced a team from the AL West Division. The Angels, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in here tonight as they have gone just 3-7 in their last ten Game #3's of a series and they have lost 18 of their last 25 games versus a team from the AL East. They are also just 2-6 in their last eight home games where they faced a left handed starter and they are an awful 3-9 in their last twelve games after scoring two runs or less in their previous contest. Throw in the fact that the Sox are a perfect 4-0 in their last four games where they faced a left handed starter and that Pomeranz has held Mike Trout and Albert Pujols to a .100 average (2/20) combined and we'll lay the small price with them here to get the road win in Anaheim on Saturday night. |
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07-26-16 | Mariners v. Pirates -120 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Pittsburgh Pirates over Seattle Mariners (7:05pm EST) The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a challenging season, but they are a scrappy bunch and have managed to get to four games above the .500 mark. They’re squarely in contention and things are looking brighter. One of the more positive signs of late is Francisco Liriano’s last outing versus the Brewers. He struck out 13 batters in 6.2 innings of work – easily his most impressive performance of the 2016 campaign. Overall it hasn’t been a good season for the veteran left-hander, but he’s been a streaky pitcher throughout his career and this could be the beginning of a nice run. He’ll face a Mariners team that doesn’t match up well against southpaws, so Liriano should have the edge. The M’s have been disappointing after a great start to the season. The pitching staff has been the biggest issue and today’s starter Felix Hernandez certainly hasn’t been his usual self. Hernandez has managed a decent 3.23 ERA, but all of his peripherals have slipped including a subpar 7.1 strikeout rate per nine innings. He still knows how to pitch, but King Felix is more hittable than ever. The Pirates also have one of the better home field advantages in baseball and Seattle isn’t very familiar with PNC Park. That’s a subtle edge that is the icing on the cake in this game. All signs point to the Pirates today. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-21-16 | Padres v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
10-Unit Play. Take #958 St. Louis (-1.5 RL) over San Diego (7 p.m., Thursday, July 21) I am going right back to them for my National League Game of the Year here on Thursday! The Cardinals pulled the sweep yesterday, hitting the runline in the first game and then winning 3-2 in the second. That's now three straight win over the Padres and I think the Cardinals will win big again today. This St. Louis team knows it needs to play great baseball down the stretch to have a prayer at catching the Cubs or making the playoffs. This is one of the best organizations in baseball and I think they are going to be strong in the second half. The Cardinals have dominated this series for nearly a decade! St. Louis has gone 48-15 at home against the Padres and are 86-40 in their last 126 games against San Diego overall. Today the Cards are going with Adam Wainwright, the staff leader. They are 40-17 in his last 57 home starts and 40-19 when he starts on regular rest. Wainwright has three straight quality starts and a 0.39 ERA in those outings. He has thrown seven of eight quality starts and has been awesome at home this year. The Padres are going with Andrew Cashner. He has been a huge disappointment and has an ERA over 5.00 on the season. Cashner has been even worse on the road! He has lost four straight road starts and has a 7.83 ERA this season away from home. Everything in this game points to the Cardinals winning and winning big. Take St. Louis. |
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07-19-16 | Brewers v. Pirates -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Pittsburgh Pirates over Milwaukee Brewers (7:05pm EST) A quick look at the standings in the NL Central shows the Pirates at just 47-45 on the season with a -2 run differential overall. That's not exactly what Pirates fans expected coming off of three straight playoff appearances. But I think there's still hope for Pittsburgh, as they've addressed some of the issues they had earlier in the season. The bullpen has been shaken up some as well as the starting rotation in an effort to get in some younger talent. One of the guys they promoted is today's starter Jameson Taillon. The young right-hander has been pretty impressive in his five starts, posting a 3.86 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. He has a lively fastball and a plus curveball to go along with it that keeps hitters off balance. Today he gets the struggling Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew is getting ready to unload some assets before the trade deadline and the team knows it. They are just 9-18 over their last 27 games and have been particularly bad away from home. The Brewers are just 16-29 on the road this season, which is the third worst record in baseball. Pittsburgh has one of the best home field advantages in the game and I think they're underpriced today. Play the Pirates. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-16-16 | White Sox v. Angels -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox (9:05pm EST) James Shields has had a tough 2016 season, but some are pointing to his last three starts as reason for hope. I’m not buying it. Yes Shields has put up a nice 2.21 ERA over his last three outings, but his peripheral numbers tell the real story. He still has major control issues and continues to leave the ball up in the zone. The only thing that has been better in his last few starts is his ability to strand runners. He’s still getting himself into jams, but has been fortunate to escape on several occasions. Since joining the White Sox, Shields has a 7.68 ERA and he’s deserved every bit of it. Today he takes on a mediocre Angel’s lineup, but I’m not sure it matters who he is going up against. Triple-A teams could probably knock Shields out early the way he’s pitching over the last two months. On the other side if Matt Shoemaker, who has turned himself into a really nice starting pitcher this season. Not many hurlers have improved as much as Shoemaker has during the 2016 season. His seasonal numbers don’t show it, but you can see a huge difference in his stuff and the K-BB ratio is vastly improving. Don’t be surprised if Shoemaker is the ace of the staff heading into next season. The White Sox are a team on the decline and I think Shoemaker makes easy work of them today. Take the Halos here. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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07-09-16 | Angels v. Orioles -121 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Baltimore Orioles over Los Angeles Angels (7:05pm EST) AMERICAN LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR. The Baltimore Orioles have been atop the American League East for most of the season, but they still aren't getting much respect in the betting markets. Manager Buck Showalter has consistently helped the O's exceed expectations over the last few seasons and they've been a great team to back because of it. Once again they're undervalued as a smallish favorite over a last place Angel's team. Most bettors are afraid of backing the Orioles starting pitchers, but they don't realize that they don't need great starting pitching to win games. The O's have a tremendous offense, they play above average defense and boast one of the best bullpens in baseball. They just need their starters to keep them in the game, and that's exactly what they've done so far in 2016. At home, Baltimore has been an absolute force to be reckoned with. They enter today's action at 31-14 in Camden Yards and have put up some crooked numbers along the way. The Halos are playing for the future and will be sellers when the deadline comes in a couple of weeks. Los Angeles does have a small edge as far as starting pitchers go in this matchup, but the O's dominate in every other department. Lay the small price with the O's in our Game of the Year. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-07-16 | A's v. Astros -123 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Houston Astros over Oakland A's (8:10pm EST) We've been riding the Houston Astros quite a bit lately and there's no reason to stop now. The Stros are 29-11 over their last 40 contests, including a current 14-3 hot streak the last couple of weeks. Today they start a series against the lowly A's, who come into today's game 16.5 games out of first in the AL West. Oakland players know that their team is going to be a seller come the trade deadline, so it's tough to imagine them being particularly focused right now. The All-Star break is just a few days away and some of these guys are probably looking forward to some time off. Houston, on the other hand, clearly doesn't need a break as they're the hottest team in baseball right now. The A's have the pitching edge in today's game (Rich Hill versus Doug Fister), and that allows us to pick up a reasonable price on a hot team at home. Houston has been one of the better home teams in baseball the last couple of seasons and we'll call their number again today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-04-16 | Royals v. Blue Jays -180 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Toronto Blue Jays over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm EST) It's difficult to go against the defending champs because they seem to have a way of surpassing expectations and consistently winning games they shouldn't. But the Kansas City Royals do have a pretty big chink in their armor - they aren't very good on the road. Kansas City is just 16-27 away from home this season versus 27-11 at home. Last season wasn't as extreme, but it's clear that the Royals have some big advantages playing in Kaufman Stadium. It's one of the biggest outfields in baseball and they have excellent outfield defenders who can get go get em out there. They also don't bring much in the way of home run power offensively, so the stadium plays to their strengths in that regard as well. Today they go into the Rogers Center, which is about as diametrically opposite as you can get. Balls fly out of that stadium and whoever hits the most home runs usually walks away victorious. The Blue Jays are starting to swing the bats much better and is one scary team right now for opponents. Toronto will have a big edge on the mound today with Aaron Sanchez going up against Edinson Volquez. Sanchez is 8-1 with a sparkling 3.08 ERA and a strong 8.2 strikeout rate. Volquez, on the other hand, comes in struggling with a 4.80 ERA and 1.43 WHIP on the season. Over his last three outings, Volquez has a hideous 10.29 ERA. The price is a little steeper than we usually like, but all signs point to an easy Toronto win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-16 | Orioles v. Mariners -142 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #924 Seattle Mariners over Baltimore Orioles (10:10pm EST) We rode the Seattle Mariners yesterday to an easy victory and we'll look their direction once again today for many of the same reasons. The Orioles are having a great season, but almost all of their damage has been at home in Camden Yards. They are 18 games over .500 at home versus three games under .500 on the road. Safeco Field isn't built for power hitters, which is what Baltimore brings. The M's have a more balanced lineup that can manufacture runs when needed. The pitching matchup today is decidedly in the M's favor as James Paxton takes the hill against Tyler Wilson. Paxton has shown amazing stuff since being called up a month ago. He's increased his velocity significantly and is striking out 10.6 batters per nine innings. Paxton has been a bit unlucky with only a 65% strand rate and .415 BABIP, but his peripheral statistics are pointing to a future ERA under the 3.00 mark. He won't be flying under the radar for long, so we'll take Seattle here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-30-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays +105 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland Indians (7:10pm EST) The Blue Jays offense hasn't hit its stride yet in 2016, but a trip to Colorado may have them headed in the right direction. The Jays scored 24 runs in three games in Colorado and now head back home to take on the red hot Indians. Toronto has one of the better home field advantages in baseball, but has actually played the fewest amount of home games in the AL so far this season. R.A. Dickey makes the start for the Jays and he's given most of the Indians hitters' problems in the few times they've faced him. Carlos Carrasco goes for the Tribe and he's coming off of a complete game shutout against the Tigers last time out. He threw 117 pitches in that game (his season high), so we could see a bit of a hangover against a difficult lineup. The Indians have won 12 games in a row and that has forced linesmakers to inflate this line a little bit. I don't like going against extreme streaks, but getting a plus price at home is too good to pass up for Toronto. Play the Jays. |
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06-29-16 | Orioles -137 v. Padres | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10-Unit Play. Take #971 Baltimore over San Diego (3:40 p.m., Wednesday, June 29) Baltimore is looking to complete a quick 2 game sweep of the Padres as Yovani Gallardo returns to a National League Park where he has spent most of his career. Gallardo hasn't been great on the road so far this year as he owns an ERA of 9, but he has faced 3 lineups (Kansas City, Boston, Texas) that are more formidable than the Padres. The Orioles have won 6 games in a row and they will be facing Christian Friedrich who has gotten knocked around at Petco Park. Friedrich is 2-1 with a 5.57 ERA at home this season and he allowed 6 runs over 6 innings in his last start at home in a 7-5 loss to the Nationals. Baltimore has averaged 7 runs per contest in their 6 game streak and I think they will be able to produce again tonight. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last 5 inter league games versus a left handed starter while the Padres are 1-5 in their last 6 inter league games versus a right handed starter. I like Baltimore to get out of town with another win under their belt. Best of Luck - Strike Point Sports |
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06-24-16 | Astros v. Royals +109 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Kansas City Royals over Houston Astros (8:15pm EST) The defending world champs take on the red hot Houston Astros tonight in what should be a really good game. Kansas City still doesn't get much respect after going to the World Series for two straight seasons. They are on pace for 87 wins this season and are right in the hunt for a playoff spot in the AL once again. Yet they are underdogs at home versus a team they've played better than so far in 2016. In addition, the Royals are an outstanding 25-8 at home this season. That's the best home record in baseball and it's pretty clear why they are so dominant in Kaufman Stadium. The big spacious outfield is a big advantage for the Royals who play the best outfield defense in the majors. Edinson Volquez gets the ball for Kansas City tonight and he's probably been their most consistent starting pitcher over the last two years. He's not going to go out and dominate, but he almost always keeps his team in the game. That's all you need when you have one of the best bullpens in baseball. On the other side is left-hander Dallas Keuchel for the Stros. It's been a really tough year for Keuchel, who took home the AL Cy Young award last season. He enters today's action with a robust 5.32 ERA in 15 starts. The Astros have been one of hotter teams in the league of late, but if anything that is making this line even more out of whack. The value is definitely with the Royals here and that's where we'll go with our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-23-16 | Padres -104 v. Reds | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds (7:10pm EST) Two bad teams go at it tonight in Cincinnati, but that doesn't mean it isn't a good betting opportunity. The Padres come in at just 30-43 on the season, but they've clearly played better baseball over the last three weeks. They're 10-10 over their last 20 contests, which have featured some pretty good teams. It seems like the comments from their owner saying what an embarrassment they are, have sparked the team in some way to play better. I'm not sure how long it will last, but for right now it seems like a confident bunch. Christian Friedrich gets the assignment on the hill today and he's really looked comfortable in the San Diego rotation. He's made seven starts and has a tidy 3.15 ERA. He's coming off of his worst start of the season last time out versus the Nationals, but I think he bounces back with a good effort against the Reds. Cincinnati is clearly a peg below, as they've been outscored by a whopping 103 runs through 72 games thus far. A lot of the veterans are struggling on this team and it's trickling down to the entire roster. Joey Votto has been banged up a bit and he might not play today, which would be a huge loss in the lineup. Pitching has been the biggest problem for the Reds, and today's starter John Lamb hasn't helped matters. He comes in at 1-4 with a 4.75 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in nine starts. Lamb has flashed some signs of brilliance at times, but he just hasn't been consistent from start to start or inning to inning for that matter. The Pads are swinging the bats pretty well lately, so I expect them to give Lamb problems today. San Diego is the better team overall and they're playing better baseball at the moment. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-16 | Red Sox v. Giants +115 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 San Francisco Giants over Boston Red Sox (10:15pm EST) A great interleague series gets underway in AT&T Park as the Giants host the Red Sox starting on Tuesday night. These are clearly two of the best teams in baseball, but they certainly do it in different ways. The Red Sox mash teams to death with their amazing lineup and hope that the pitching is just good enough to keep the opponents at bay. The Giants utilize a more steady approach that combines a good pitching staff, solid defense and a balanced lineup. Both approaches have obviously worked out well, but I think the Giants' success is a bit more sustainable as they don't rely on one particular facet of the game to win, and they have some of the intangibles that other teams covet. Today we have a pitching matchup of Rick Porcello and Albert Suarez. Porcello is having a nice comeback year for Boston, but he's regressed a bit in his last few outings. Porcello has a 5.79 ERA over his last four starts and has struck out just 16 batters in 23.1 innings of work. Suarez isn't a highly-touted prospect, but the Red Sox have never seen him and he doesn't have much of a track record to gauge yet. The Giants should have a decent home edge in this one, as Boston doesn't come often to visit. Value with San Francisco here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-03-16 | Yankees +112 v. Orioles | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #965 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) After a very slow start to the 2016 campaign, the New York Yankees are finally playing like their fans expect. The Yanks are 16-11 since May 5th and finally have a healthy squad at full strength. Several hitters have missed time this season along with closer Aroldis Chapman. Nathan Eovaldi goes for the Yankees tonight and he's quietly putting together a really nice season. He's 6-2 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 10 starts thus far. Even more impressive, Eovaldi is striking out a career-high 8.5 batters per nine innings and he's cut his walk rate significantly from last season. Eovaldi has even increased his groundball rate a couple of ticks in 2016. There are rumors that Eovaldi is being coveted by other teams if the Yankees decide to look towards the future at the trade deadline, but there's no way they are parting with such a powerful arm. Over his last three outings, Eovaldi has a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 0.78 WHIP so he's definitely found his groove. He'll have his hands full with a tough Baltimore lineup tonight, but I think Eovaldi is up for the challenge. The O's have exceeded expectations so far in 2016 and I don't think they can continue to play at this type of pace. Their starting rotation has been much better than anticipated, but we're already starting to see some regression there. Chris Tillman is one of those guys that came out guns a blazing, but we've seen him come back down to earth of late. Tillman has walked nine guys over his last three outings and had his second-worst outing of the season last time out in Cleveland. The Yankees are one of the few teams that Baltimore doesn't have an advantage against in the late innings if the game is tight. The trio of Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman can be counted on if the Yanks have the lead after six innings. Take New York as our big 10-unit MLB play today. |
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05-31-16 | Pirates v. Marlins -130 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Miami Marlins over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10pm EST) Two aces go at it on Tuesday night but there's one who definitely stands out in this matchup. Jose Fernandez had a slow start to his 2016 campaign, but he's finally gotten into a nice rhythm with four great starts in a row. Over his last four outings, Fernandez is 4-0 with a sparkling 1.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with 43 strikeouts. Fernandez has also been amazing at home throughout his career and the Marlins are a spectacular 25-2 over his last 27 starts in Miami. There's no question he's amongst the best pitchers in the game and he's getting even better. On the other side is Gerrit Cole, who is putting together another really good season in Pittsburgh. Cole is 5-3 with a 2.53 ERA in nine starts, but his peripheral numbers are weaker this season. His strikeouts are down 15% from last year, he's walking 40% more batters, and his groundball rate is way down. He's been lucky to get out of quite a few jams this season, but eventually the numbers are going to catch up to him. Miami has a bigger edge on the mound than meets the eyes, and there's plenty of value at this price. Take the Marlins at home. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-28-16 | Tigers v. A's -112 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Oakland A's over Detroit Tigers (4:05pm EST) Two unproven starting pitchers square off today in Oakland as the A's host the Tigers. Matt Boyd has just been called up for his first start in 2016. He pitcher for the Blue Jays and Tigers last season and looked completely lost on the mound for the majority of his starts. Boyd posted a 7.53 ERA and was really plagued by the home run ball, yielding an unheard of 2.7 per nine innings. The A's have some pop in their bats and could knock Boyd out of this one early on with the long ball. Left-hander Jesse Hahn gets the ball for Oakland in his fifth start of the season. Hahn has put together two very good seasons at the big league level but has had a tough time staying healthy and keeping his spot in the rotation. His numbers this season aren't great so far, but he's managed a 4.07 ERA and I think the best has yet to come for this 26-year old. The Tigers struggle with southpaws, so Hahn will be in the driver's seat for today's start. If this game is close late, I also give a big edge to the Oakland bullpen. They have several guys to call on, while the Tigers have struggled finding consistency amongst their arms. I like Oakland to get the win today at home at a reasonable price. |
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05-27-16 | Giants +109 v. Rockies | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) No one is hotter than the San Francisco Giants are right now. The Giants are 13-1 over their last 14 games with their lone loss coming against Jake Arrieta and the Cubs. After a slow start, all of the new parts are melding together nicely and this is looking like a team built to make yet another World Series run. Much like the overall club, Matt Cain struggled early on but has figured it out lately. Over his last three starts, Cain has a 1.71 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 21 innings of work. Those starts were against the Blue Jays, Diamondbacks and Cubs, so he was certainly tested and passed with flying colors. Today he has another tough assignment pitching in Coors Field against the Rockies offense. Colorado is off to a better than expected start, but I don't think they can sustain it as their pitching is overachieving. Tyler Chatwood is one of those guys throwing much better than his career numbers. He comes in at 5-3 with a 3.02 ERA in 9 starts. However, his home/road splits are amongst the worst in all of baseball on the home side. On the road Chatwood has a sparkling 0.53 ERA, but at home in Coors he owns a horrid 6.65 ERA. It's tough to understand how the red hot Giants are underdogs in this one, so we'll go that direction here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-24-16 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 New York Yankees over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm EST) Good spot today to the play the Yankees as they are at home versus the Blue Jays on Tuesday night. Nathan Eovaldi goes for the Yanks and he's had electric stuff so far in 2016. His ERA doesn't reflect it yet, but Eovaldi is throwing the ball extremely well with a healthy 45-10 K-BB ratio to go along with a strong 55% groundball rate. Those numbers will serve him well in Yankee Stadium, especially against a tough Jays' lineup. Toronto sends knuckle-baller R.A. Dickey to the mound today. Dickey is just 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA and nothing really stands out in his peripheral numbers. Yankees Stadium isn't the ideal place for him either as the home run ball has gotten him far too many times. The Yankee bats are finally coming around and that's more than the Blue Jays can say at the moment. Somehow Toronto is ranked just 7th in runs scored in the AL after demolishing big league pitching last year when they led the majors by a wide margin. On the surface this line looks about right, but a deeper dive shows the Yanks are the right side. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-09-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -142 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -142 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Colorado Rockies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:40pm EST) Every MLB team has played at least 30 games so far and now is about the time that we can start to get a decent gauge on what each team has going for it. One team that has caught my eye so far is the Colorado Rockies. They're only 15-16 overall, but the Rockies are playing much better baseball than they have the last couple of seasons. One of the main reasons is the improvement in their pitching staff. Today's starter Tyler Chatwood is one of a few Rockies pitchers who have made some nice strides in 2016. He comes in with an excellent 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in six starts. Chatwood didn't allow a single run over his last two outings, including an eight-inning masterpiece last time out versus the Padres. He allowed just three hits and a walk while striking out seven. Chatwood's game also fits well into Coors Field, as he likes to keep the ball down in the zone. His groundball rate is current at a very nice 52% on the season. He'll face an Arizona lineup that has been struggling a bit without their spark plug in A.J. Pollock. The D-Backs did just sweep the Braves after dropping six straight, but Atlanta is the worst team in the sport right now. Archie Bradley will toe the rubber for Arizona, and he looked horrendous in his only outing of the season on April 18th against the Giants. Bradley couldn't make it through the 5th inning, and walked four batters while striking out just two in allowing five earned runs. He'll have his hands full against a Rockies lineup that is even more dangerous this season with the red hot rookie Trevor Story. The 23-year old shortstop is second in the NL in home runs, behind only teammate Nolan Arenado. The Rockies as a team are third in the NL in runs scored. Colorado also one of the better home field advantages in baseball. They're off to a slow start (4-8) in Coors Field this season, but it's early on. Take the Rockies to earn the victory today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-16 | Phillies +110 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Philadelphia Phillies over Miami Marlins (7:10pm EST) No one expected much from the Philadelphia Phillies this season. They are in the midst of a challenging rebuilding effort which has the eyes on the future of the franchise. So after coming out of the gates fast, many have dismissed the hot start by the Phils. However, I think they have some staying power given the nice core they've developed and could be well ahead of schedule. Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco don't get much national attention, but they certain to be future All-Stars in this game. I also really like their starting rotation overall. Aaron Nola, Vincent Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff all have high ceilings and should anchor the staff for years to come. Today's starter Jeremy Hellickson is the elder statesmen at age 29. He doesn't have the stuff the other guys at the top have, but he keeps the team in the game and doesn't make many bad mistakes. It's also extremely encouraging to see his strikeout rate up at 9.5 per nine innings right now - a huge increase from last year's 7.5 rate. He'll face a Marlins lineup that is without their energy guy in speedster Dee Gordon. Without a good table-setter at the top, guys like Giancarlo Stanton just aren't as dangerous. Hellickson should be plenty of run support today as the Marlins are trotting out Tom Koehler to the mound in today's matchup. Koehler has been atrocious in five starts this season, amassing a 7.25 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in 22.1 innings of work. He's struggled with his command and has pitched his worst with runners on base. The Phils don't have a particularly balanced lineup, but even they should be able to get to Koehler today. Take Philadelphia as our Game of the Week selection. |
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04-22-16 | Dodgers v. Rockies +114 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 114 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Colorado Rockies over Los Angeles Dodgers (8:40pm EST) The Colorado Rockies were picked by many to bring up the rear in the NL West this season. But so far the Rockies have held their own and there's reason to believe they can sustain their success. One of the biggest reasons why is shortstop Trevor Story, who leads the majors with eight home runs after virtually coming out of nowhere. Adding him to the order with Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado make this lineup one the scariest in the league for opposing pitchers. Left-hander Scott Kazmir will face that lineup today in Coors Field, and the forecast says the wind will be blowing out. Kazmir has struggled mightily in his first three starts with the Dodgers, posting a 6.43 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 14 innings of work. He's given up three home runs already this season, and that's a huge problem that isn't likely to go away in Coors. Colorado sends youngster Jon Gray to the bump in his first outing with the big club this season. Gray started nine games for the team last season and pitched fairly well despite a poor ERA. He struck out nearly a batter an inning and that's important in a spacious park where hits fall in everywhere. The Rockies had the day off yesterday to prepare for this game, which is important for getting some guys rested up. Meanwhile, the Dodgers had to travel in from Atlanta after an extra innings in against the Braves. Colorado finds a way to win today's matchup. Take the Rockies as our April Game of the Month. |
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04-09-16 | Astros -144 v. Brewers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Houston Astros over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Houston Astros made a blockbuster move in the offseason when they traded five prospects to the Phillies in return for flamethrower Ken Giles. Many tabbed Giles as the missing link to this Astros team, especially after they blew a late lead in the ALDS against the Royals last year. However, another great move by the Astros they got far less attention was the signing of Doug Fister. The veteran starter had a down year with the Nationals last season posting a 4.19 ERA in just 103 innings of work. Part of the problem was injury issues that led to a dip in his velocity. This spring with the Astros, Fister was injury-free and his velocity was back to pre-2015 levels. That's great news for Houston who was able to nab Fister at a bargain one-year deal for $7 million. Today he'll make his Astros debut in Milwaukee against the Brewers. Milwaukee is in the process of rebuilding and it's definitely going to get worse before it gets better. Their two best players, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, are getting shopped around after unloading power threat Khris Davis to the A's a month ago. Wily Peralta goes for the Brewers in this one and he'll have his hands full against a powerful Astros lineup. Houston hit the second most homers in the majors last season, just two behind the potent Blue Jays club. Miller Park is known for home runs, so Astros hitters have a great chance to hit some dingers in this series. That includes young superstar Carlos Correa, who has already blasted three home runs in his first three games of the 2016 campaign. I think the Astros will be a little too much for Peralta too handle, and Fister should be pitching with a nice cushion most of the game. Take Houston as our MLB Game of the Week. |
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08-25-15 | Boston Red Sox +122 v. Chicago White Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #973 Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm EST) It's been a terrible season once again for the Boston Red Sox. This will be their third last place finish in four years, and it's caused a management shakeup in the process. The simple reason that this team failed is that their big free agent signings just didn't come though. One of their acquisitions was left-hander Wade Miley. A solid middle-of-the-rotation arm for the Diamondbacks, Miley was counted on for consistency and innings in Beantown. But for nearly the entire season, it's been Miley's inconsistency that has plagued him. However, over his last four starts, Miley has seemingly turned a corner. He has posted a respectable 3.33 ERA and 1.07 WHIP to go along with a strong 24-5 K-BB ratio over that span. Now that the pressure is off, I think Miley is comfortable and has found a nice groove. The White Sox season has pretty miserable as well, as they could never find their identity. The offense, or lack thereof, has been a huge source of problems throughout the 2015 campaign. Their 14th in the AL in runs scored, ahead of only the Rays. But their defense has been even worse, and their bullpen hasn't been pretty either. The starting pitching has been the only positive for the White Sox this season, and today's starter Jose Quintana certainly fits that bill. He's been rock solid once again with a 3.60 ERA, although his numbers are down a bit from last season. With the way Miley is throwing right now, you have to give him the edge in this matchup. In analyzing the rest of the team, the Red Sox are a bit better team overall as well. As a result, this line is about 10-15 cents too high. Take Boston as our Game of the Week. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Los Angeles Angels -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Los Angeles Angels over Chicago White Sox (10:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels hadn't been playing well lately. But it appears all they needed was a visit from the Chicago White Sox to get back on track. The Halos have taken the first two games of the series, and they half two left versus Chicago. Wednesday's matchup features two pitchers that aren't exactly having banner seasons - Jered Weaver and Jeff Samardzija. Weaver has battled some injury issues, so he could be given somewhat of a pass with his 4.78 ERA. Samardzija, on the other hand, has the same 4.78 ERA but has been healthy all season. In fact, Samardzija is seemingly in the midst of his worst stretch of his entire career right now. Over his last three starts, the tall right-hander is 0-3 with a 12.92 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. That's about as ugly of a stat line as you'll see for a starting pitcher. Both teams have struggled offensively this season, but the Angels clearly have more potential given that Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are still in the middle of their lineup. The bullpens may play an important role in this one as well, and we'll give the nod to Los Angeles there as well. Playing at home, it's hard to understand why the Angels aren't bigger favorites here. Take Los Angeles. |
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08-08-15 | Baltimore Orioles v. Los Angeles Angels -147 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -147 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Los Angeles Angels over Baltimore Orioles (9:05pm EST) Ubaldo Jimenez has had some unbelievable pitching performances throughout his career, as well as some absolute duds. In fact, his career has been marred by inconsistency. He looked like he might be turning a corner this season, but Jimenez is back to his old tricks once again. Up until his last four starts, Jimenez had an ERA in the low 3's with no blowups. But over his last four outings, he has an abysmal 10.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. He may eventually snap out of this funk, but now is the time to fade Jimenez. The Angels have been swinging the bats better of late, and I like their pickups before the trade deadline. David Murphy, Shane Victorino, and David DeJesus aren't stars, but collectively they add quite a bit of firepower to the offensive attack - especially considering who they replaced. Garrett Richards will take the ball for the Halos. He's been rock solid once again in 2015 after a breakthrough season last year. The Angels shouldn't need a huge effort from Richards, as the offense should do most of the work against Jimenez today. This line about 10-15 cents too low, so take Los Angeles as our Game. |
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08-07-15 | Los Angeles Dodgers -132 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 Los Angeles Dodgers over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) It's not often that you are going to get Clayton Kershaw at a price this low, and especially not when he's in the midst of a scoreless innings streak of 37. After a slow start to the 2015 season by his standards, Kershaw is now looking better than ever. The Dodgers as a team have also been playing really good baseball, winning six of their last seven heading into this series. Pitching has been the key during the run, as the starters are going deep into games and the bullpen is shutting the door. The Pirates are a formidable opponent for sure, but they've benefitted somewhat from one of the easiest schedules in baseball thus far. They're also a bit banged up at the moment with Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer on the disabled list. They brought in Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers, but I'm not sure that's much of an upgrade from what they already had. Gerrit Cole gets the ball for Pittsburgh and he's having a tremendous season. He checks in at 14-5 with a 2.29 ERA in 21 starts. This should be a fun one to watch, but you can't pass up the best pitcher in baseball at this kind of price the way he's throwing it right now. |
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08-06-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Chicago Cubs -118 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #912 Chicago Cubs over San Francisco Giants (8:05pm EST) A big series gets underway in Wrigley Field as the Cubs host the Giants in the first of four games. These teams are separated by just a half game in the wild card race as we enter the final third of the season. This matchup couldn't have come at a better time for the Cubs as they've won six of seven. They also manage to avoid Madison Bumgarner in this series as he pitched yesterday. Thursday's matchup will feature Chris Heston versus Jason Hammel. Both hurlers are having very good seasons, but each has struggled of late. I give a slight edge to Hammel today, as I think he can right the ship sooner than the rookie. Heston may be hitting the proverbial wall that first year pitchers often times do. He's thrown 130.2 innings this season, and the Giants probably want to limit him to 180 or so this season. Chicago's offense has been swinging the bats well, so I think they could bounce Heston early from this one. Take the red hot Cubs at home to win the first game of this important series. |
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08-04-15 | Seattle Mariners -111 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Seattle Mariners over Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) Once again the American League is beating up on the National League. Coming into today's action, the AL leads the NL by 11 games in interleague play. While the top teams in the NL are certainly holding their own, it's the bottom feeders that have really struggled against the AL. The Rockies are a miserable 2-13 against AL teams this season, including an 8-7 loss to the Mariners last night. These two squads will go at it again on Tuesday as Vidal Nuno and Jonathan Gray square off. This will be the first start of the season for both of these young hurlers. Nuno has made 21 appearances out of the bullpen for Seattle, and has posted an impressive 2.02 ERA. Going through the lineup multiple times is obviously a lot tougher than throwing one inning at a time, but Nuno does have plenty of experience as a starting pitcher. He's been pitching as a starter all through the minors and broke into the league as one in 2014 making 28 starts. He has good stuff has really improved in the area of putting guys away this season. He has a strong 9.6 strikeout rate per nine innings and is walking just a hair over two batters per nine. Pitching in Coors is no easy task, but I expect Nuno to hold his own for at least six innings today. Gray makes his big league debut in this one for the Rocks. He has been one of the top pitcher's in Colorado's system for a couple of years, so there will be lots of eyeballs on the youngster. Gray has great stuff but he couldn't really put it all together at Triple-A this season. He had a 4.33 ERA in 21 games and struggled with his command frequently. I trust Nuno over the rookie, and this Mariners team is the better team all around. Take Seattle at a gift of a price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-02-15 | Seattle Mariners -122 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #921 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm EST) Mike Pelfrey is back. After impersonating a good pitcher earlier this season, Pelfrey is finally throwing up beach balls for his opponents to hammer. Over his last five starts, the 31-year old has a bulky 6.84 ERA to go along with a lousy 12-9 K-BB ratio. On the season, Pelfrey is striking out just 4.3 batters per nine innings. That's not going to get it done at the big league level, and it's somewhat surprising that he's still in the Twins rotation. This isn't the same last place team that can let guys work through their problems. They are currently in a wild card spot in the AL and have to give themselves the best chance to win. But we're betting that the Mariners can take advantage. They send Hisashi Iwakuma to the mound for his ninth start of the season. Injuries have hampered the right-hander, but his peripheral numbers have been solid despite a high 5.10 ERA. Iwakuma knows how to pitch and should have few problems with a weak Twins lineup. This is a big mismatch on the mound and I think the M's get the victory here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-01-15 | Chicago Cubs -118 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #957 Chicago Cubs over Milwaukee Brewers (7:10pm EST) The Brewers have been playing good baseball of late, but all of that momentum is gone after the team unloaded several key veterans before the trade deadline. Gone are Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Aramis Ramirez, which has the Brew Crew in full rebuild mode. The Cubs send Kyle Hendricks to the mound for this one and he's quietly been one of the best back of the rotation starters in the National League. Hendricks carries a 3.81 ERA into this game, and is getting better in each start. Over his last six outings, the right-hander has a 2.43 ERA to go along with a 34-8 K-BB ratio. Take the Cubs to win their fourth straight today. |
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07-31-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Houston Astros -150 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Houston Astros over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm EST) For some reason not everyone is a 100% believer in the Houston Astros just yet. They've led the AL West for virtually the entire 2015 season and outscored their opponents by over 70 runs this season. Still they aren't getting priced like a legitimate contender. Add in a couple of big trades before the deadline, bringing in Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir. Still, no respect. The fact is, this Astros team might have a better shot in winning the American League than anyone else. They don't really have any glaring weaknesses, and most of their roster is very young and improving by the day. One guy who isn't young is today's starter Scott Feldman. One of the grizzled veterans, Feldman has been solid but unspectacular over the last few seasons. He won't go out and win the game all by himself, but he's also not going to lose it for you either. The Astros offense has had a nice boost after calling up the highly-touted Carlos Correa, and the addition of Gomez should being a similar spark. They'll face a Diamondbacks team that is certainly overachieving in 2015. Nobody expected Arizona to be hovering around the .500 mark this late in the season. I think we'll see them tail off a bit down the stretch, however, as the team eyes the future of the franchise. This line is almost 20 cents too low, so Houston is a huge 7-unit selection for us. |
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07-28-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Boston Red Sox -129 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -129 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Boston Red Sox over Chicago White Sox (7:10pm EST) Neither of these teams is going to be playing into October this season, but that doesn't mean we can't find some value in the matchup. From an offensive standpoint, the Red Sox are clearly the better of two teams. They've scored roughly 70 runs more than the White Sox on the season and have more proven bats in their lineup from top to bottom. It also appears that Adam LaRoche will miss tonight's game for Chicago due to personal issues. On the mound, Jeff Samardzija and Wade Miley will duel it out. Both pitchers have struggled this season, but Samardzija is slightly better in looking at the numbers overall. However, the White Sox have really struggled in 2015 against left-handers. In fact, they are batting just .226 against lefties with a .269 OBP. That gives Miley the nod, and we'll also give Boston the check mark when it comes down to the bullpens. Throw in defense, intangibles and home field advantage, and it's hard to understand why Boston isn't a bigger favorite today. The White Sox have won five straight games, but that's not something to put too much stock into on the baseball diamond. Take Boston here. |
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07-22-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Kansas City Royals -129 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Kansas City Royals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) We'll play Kansas City once again today after picking up the win yesterday 3-1 over Pittsburgh. The betting markets seem to have these teams rated fairly evenly, and I couldn't disagree more. The Royals play in a much tougher league and their numbers are better across the board in every category except for starting pitching. However, the pitching matchup in this one actually favors the Royals, as Edinson Volquez squares off against Charlie Morton. Volquez has fit in nicely in his first season in Kansas City, with an 8-5 record and 3.28 ERA in 19 starts. Having a superb defense behind him has surely boosted Volquez's confidence. Morton checks in with a 4.34 ERA despite pitching against a pretty weak schedule of opponents in his 10 starts. Should this game come down to the bullpens, the Royals surely have the advantage as they still have the best 7-8-9 combination in the late innings. Kansas City gets the money in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-21-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Kansas City Royals +111 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 111 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Kansas City Royals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) It's not often you're going to see the American-league leading Royals as an underdog at home. Yes they're going up a tough pitcher in Gerrit Cole, but nobody has performed better against ace pitchers than the Royals have this season. They make a ton of contact and are rarely dominated via the strikeout. The Pirates are certainly a good baseball team, but one thing to point out about them is their weak schedule to this point. They've played one of the softest schedules in all of baseball to this point, and now will face an extremely tough schedule the rest of the way. The Royals send Jason Vargas to the hill in this one, who is mediocre at best. But Kansas City doesn't win games because of their starting pitching. It's their offense, bullpen and defense and really carries the load. Take Kansas City. |
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07-20-15 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Kansas City Royals -123 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Kansas City Royals over Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the opener of a series that should be very entertaining. These two teams play similar brands of baseball, despite playing in different leagues. It's just that the Royals do it a little bit better than the Pirates do. Kansas City has the best record in the American League - five games better than the next closest team. That's impressive given how tough the league is this season without any really bad teams (Seattle at 42-50 has the worst record). The Royals have made their bettors nearly 20 units of profit this season, which is tops in all of baseball. Given that their starting rotation is mediocre at best, they don't attract as much money in the betting markets as some of the other top teams. That case applies to tonight's matchup, as Yordano Ventura pitches for the Royals against A.J. Burnett of the Pirates. Burnett is clearly having the much better season, but there are eight other guys on the field. Ventura has one of the best defenses in all of baseball behind him and an even better bullpen to close things out. Kansas City has also made major strides offensively this season, providing a lot more power than a season ago. The Pirates have been inconsistent at the dish, and it's worth noting they they've played one of the softest schedules up to this point. Put it all together, and the Royals are the superior team and should get a W in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-19-15 | Chicago Cubs -148 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Chicago Cubs over Atlanta Braves (5:05pm EST) The Chicago Cubs have finally arrived and there's still room on the bandwagon before the betting markets fully adjust. The Cubs have one of the youngest teams in the big leagues and they are getting better every day. I expect a big second half from this squad, assuming the offense can become a bit more consistent. The starting rotation has been the strong point of this squad and today's starter Jake Arrieta certainly has played a big role in that capacity. Arrieta is probably a top five starter in the National League, but he doesn't always get priced that way. The right-hander is 10-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 18 starts this season. One of the least talked about aspects of this Cubs team is their outstanding defense, which ranks tops in baseball as far as efficiency. That makes their pitchers even better and gives them a huge extra edge on the diamond. I wouldn't be surprised to see this Atlanta Braves team fall apart in the second half of the season. They exceeded expectations in the first half, but they can't expect to get the same kind of production from guys like Cameron Maybin and Kelly Johnson. The same can be said of today's starting pitcher Shelby Miller. He enters today's game with a 2.38 ERA, but his peripheral numbers point to an ERA in the mid-3's at best. The patient Cubs lineup should be able to get some good swings on Miller in this one. The Cubs are the better team in every facet, including in the starting pitcher matchup. And one final note, the Braves are missing their best player in Freddie Freeman, who is currently on the disabled list with a wrist injury. Take the Cubs to get the job done as our Game. |
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07-11-15 | San Diego Padres v. Texas Rangers -110 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Texas Rangers over San Diego Padres (8:05pm EST) The San Diego Padres were set up to fail by General Manager A.J. Preller, and the bottom has officially fallen out with the team dropping to ten games under the .500 mark coming into today's action. They've also dropped six straight games. Expect things to get even uglier in the second half, as the Pads may be sellers at the trade deadline. San Diego has the edge on the mound in Saturday's game in Arlington (James Shields over Colby Lewis), but I give the Rangers the check mark in every other area. Bad NL teams such as the Padres haven't fared well in AL parks this season, so that's another big advantage for Texas. Take the Rangers in this one. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-10-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. New York Mets -133 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #956 New York Mets over Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10pm EST) Noah Syndergaard is a star in the making, but he certainly isn't getting priced like it yet. The Mets are at home playing against an inferior team, and yet the price is reflecting just a small edge on the mound. Syndergaard comes in with a 3.38 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while striking out 9.1 batters per nine innings. He's getting more and more confident in each start and that's scary given how effective he's pitched already. Chase Anderson had a nice start to his 2015 season, but things have fallen apart for him recently. Over his last three starts, the young righty has a 7.64 ERA with only nine strikeouts and six walks. The D-Backs have certainly exceeded expectations so far this season, but I don't think they can keep it up offensively. We'll see some regression from this team in the second half of the season. The Mets have also been amazing at home this season at 29-15 - the best mark in all of baseball. This is an easy handicap. Take the Mets today. |
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07-06-15 | Atlanta Braves v. Milwaukee Brewers -132 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -132 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #958 Milwaukee Brewers over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm EST) It wasn't a bad first half of the season for the Braves at 40-42. That's far better than most had projected before the season. But I expect a much different second half of the season in Atlanta. They have been aided by one of the easiest schedules up to this point, and they have won more than their share of tight games. The Braves are in rebuilding mode and their team knows it. That means we'll probably see a different focus with this team in the second half. Their best player, Freddie Freeman, is currently on the disabled and that's a huge loss for a team that has trouble offensively. The Brewers had an atrocious first two months of the season, but they have been playing much better recently. They've won eight straight games and have been a wrecking ball at the plate. During that stretch, the Brew Crew has averaged 7.3 runs per game and has scored at least four runs in every contest. Despite the big difference in ERAs, I give Milwaukee the edge on the mound in this one with Kyle Lohse over Matt Wisler. The Brewers are cranking on all cylinders right now and should keep the streak alive here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-05-15 | Los Angeles Angels -123 v. Texas Rangers | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #927 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) The Los Angeles Angels are finally finding their rhythm and that could be bad news for an AL West that is seemingly wide open at the moment. C.J Wilson takes the mound for them on Sunday against the Rangers. Texas has struggled against left-handed pitching this season, so Wilson should fare well. Colby Lewis toes the rubber for the Rangers and he's putting up mediocre numbers once again in 2015. Albert Pujols is the hottest hitter in baseball and has the Angels offense in a nice groove. They pounded the Rangers 13-0 on Saturday night and I expect some of that to carry over into Sunday's game. Take the Halos here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-02-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Kansas City Royals -144 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) There couldn't be a better fit for Chris Young than the Kansas City Royals. The soft-tossing, pitch-to-contact style that Young has survived with plays right into the hands of the best defense in baseball. The Royals just love snagging grounders and chasing down fly balls, and they happen to rate as the best in the game at doing just that. Young doesn't have pretty peripheral numbers, but he comes in with a 2.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 69.2 innings of work. While he isn't likely to sustain numbers quite that good, Young will continue to flourish in a Royals uniform. He'll face a bad Minnesota Twins lineup that is 11th in the AL in OPS. The Twins are in a tailspin as they're 8-14 over their last 22 games overall. Everyone knew that they were playing over their heads during the first two months of the season, but this team is even worse than that. Minnesota is right there with the White Sox as the worst team in the American League when you starting breaking down all of the numbers. They have a bad starting rotation, a below average lineup and play horrible defense. Add it all up, and this team is going to continue to slide for the rest of the 2015 season. Take Kansas City at a very reasonable price today. |
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06-26-15 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -149 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Detroit Tigers over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) The Chicago White Sox have no shot in 2015 and I think the players on the team know it. They have made far too many mental errors this season and their lineup just has too many holes to make up for it. The starting pitching has a couple of bright spots, but the usually reliable Jose Quintana hasn't been as sharp as previous years. The southpaw is just 3-7 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts this season. The White Sox fielders aren't doing their pitchers any favors either, as they rank at the very bottom in several defensive categories. The Tigers crush lefties, so Quintana is certainly going to have his hands full in this one. The Tigers go with Anibal Sanchez, who seems to be regaining his form after a slow start to the 2015 campaign. In his last three starts, Sanchez is 3-0 with a 1.14 ERA and 0.80 WHIP to go along with a 19-4 K-BB ratio. Detroit is the much better team and I think they get the victory tonight behind a red hot Sanchez. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-23-15 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -158 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm EST) This one is all about Chris Archer, who is virtually an auto-play right now. The 26-year old right-hander is 8-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP and has been the best pitcher in the American League thus far. His slider is the most devastating pitch in baseball at the moment. He'll face a very tough Blue Jays offense today, but I don't think Archer will be intimidated one bit. He pitched against Toronto twice this season and hasn't given up a run in 14 innings of work, while striking out 18 batters in 14 innings. That's very impressive against the best lineup in the league. This line is a bit higher than we usually like to play, but there's still value on the Rays here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-15 | Houston Astros v. Seattle Mariners -121 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -121 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Houston Astros (4:10pm EST) You can count on the Seattle Mariners making a big run at some point in the near future, and we might be seeing the beginning of it already. The M's have won three of four and are just too talented of a team not to get back into contention in the American League. Today's starter J.A. Happ has been really solid in his first season with the Mariners, and particularly so at home. He owns a scant 1.88 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 3.81 innings in Safeco Field this season. He'll go up against a dangerous Houston Astros lineup on Sunday afternoon, but one that will be missing their leader. Jose Altuve is the energizer at the top of the lineup and he has been nursing a hamstring injury for over a week now. It's doubtful he'll be in action on Sunday and if he is will probably be limited. The Astros send rookie right-hander Vincent Velasquez to the hill. Velasquez put up some great numbers in Double-A before being called up, but in looking at his first two starts he doesn't appear quite ready for the big leagues. He put up a 4.66 ERA against two bad offenses and has struggled with his control. He'll need some Triple-A seasoning to get become an effective major leaguer, and I'd be surprised if he's not there in the coming weeks. For now the Mariners can take advantage. Play Seattle. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-19-15 | New York Mets -135 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 New York Mets over Atlanta Braves (7:35pm EST) There aren't too many major league hurlers throwing the ball better than Jacob deGrom is right now for the Mets. Over his last six starts, deGrom is 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. His K-BB ratio is equally as impressive at 53-5 during that span. That's being locked in and I don't think there's anything a weak Braves lineup is going to be able to do to stop deGrom from continuing his conquest of the National League. To make matters worse for Atlanta, Freddie Freeman is nursing a wrist injury and may be out of action for this one. Matt Wisler will make his big league debut for the Braves after spending the early part of the season in Triple-A. He wasn't particularly good in the minor leagues, so this promotion is a bit puzzling. In 12 starts, Wisler managed a 4.29 ERA and only struck out 6.8 batters per nine innings. Last season in Triple-A for the Padres, Wisler had a robust 5.01 ERA in 22 starts. The Mets are missing a couple of key bats in their lineup, but that shouldn't matter tonight with the rookie Wisler out there. They also shouldn't need many runs with the way deGrom is pitching. Take the Mets here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-18-15 | Tampa Bay Rays -120 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 Tampa Bay Rays over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) Tampa Bay is looking to take three of four games from the Washington Nationals this week and I think they have a great chance to do it. Chris Archer is hands down the hottest pitcher in baseball and the front-runner for the AL Cy Young early on. He's 7-4 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP to go along with an elite 11.3 strikeout rate. Believe it or not, he's been even better over the last month or so. His slider might be the best pitch in baseball and it's amazing to think that Archer is still getting better at age 26. The Nationals don't have much experience against Archer, so he'll certainly have the leg up today. Doug Fister gets the nod for the Nats in his first start back from the disabled list today. He has been dealing with a forearm issue, so there's no telling if there are going to be any lingering effects. The team will probably play it safe and limit his pitch count lower than usual, so that could mean the Nats bullpen gets exposed today. I like how this Rays team is defying all odds and continuing to win despite all of the major injuries they have suffered this season. They lead a tough AL East division and are 11-4 over their last 15 contests. Take the Rays today. |
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06-17-15 | San Francisco Giants v. Seattle Mariners -133 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over San Francisco Giants (10:10pm EST) Great pitching matchup on Wednesday night as two of the very best in the game square off. Madison Bumgarner and Felix Hernandez meet up in Safeco Field in Seattle in what will be must see TV. I give Hernandez the slight edge overall, as he's posted better numbers throughout his career and in the 2015 season. I also think King Felix comes into tonight's game with a little extra motivation than usual. In his last start, he has the worst outing of his entire career giving up nine runs and eight hits in 0.1 innings of work. It doesn't get much worse than that, so I expect King Felix to come back with a vengeance against the Giants tonight. All great pitchers bounce back after a terrible outing, and he's one of the best. The M's have really been disappointing overall this season at 29-36 overall. The pieces are all there, so I think it's just a matter of this team finding their groove and playing a bit looser. Their stock is probably the lowest you'll see it all season, so now's the time to buy. For the Giants, they've kept their heads above water but aren't playing very good baseball either. Now Hunter Pence is back on the disabled list and he's the one of the leaders on the club. I think the Seattle is the better team, have the better pitcher and are playing at home against a team playing in unfamiliar territory. Take the M's here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-16-15 | New York Yankees v. Miami Marlins +106 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 106 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Miami Marlins over New York Yankees (7:10pm EST) The Miami Marlins struggled out of the gates this season, but they are playing their best ball of the season right now. The Fish have won 10 of 17 and their pitching has been the key during their run. Today's starter David Phelps has been an unexpected contributor in the rotation, but has filled in admirably. The offense is also picking it up with Giancarlo Stanton leading the league in home runs with 23. He's the most dangerous hitter in baseball and the guys around him have certainly benefitted. The Yankees have dropped four of five and just don't look like a contender for the long haul. Injuries are always going to surround this veteran team, and that's the case right now. Jacoby Ellsbury is disabled right now, along with closer Andrew Miller. Those are two important pieces that will be missed. The Marlins are home underdogs in this one and that seems generous. Take Miami. |
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06-15-15 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Angels -141 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
We have a big interleague mismatch on the slate here as the Los Angeles Angels host the Arizona Diamondbacks. Based on records alone, the line on this game seems about right or perhaps even a tad high. But as a handicapper, we're more worried about the future than we are about the past. The Diamondbacks aren't going to hover around the .500 mark very much longer, as there are plenty of holes on this team to drag them down. The pitching staff is the biggest problem and particularly the bullpen. There really isn't anyone you can really trust to be automatic and they've hinted at shuffling closers on several occasions. Today's starter Robbie Ray has been good in limited work, but I'm not sure he' s a good fit in Arizona with his extreme fly ball tendencies. Veteran Jered Weaver gets the call for the Halos today. It's been a rough season for the right-hander so far, but I think he figures out a way to right the ship. His stuff has declined, but his success has never really been about the quality of his stuff. I'm also confident that a struggling Los Angeles offense eventually figures it out. They are near the bottom in many of the AL hitting categories, but when you have guys like Mike Trout and Albert Pujols that shouldn't last much longer. Take the Angels here. |
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06-13-15 | Minnesota Twins v. Texas Rangers -123 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
The Minnesota Twins may be in the beginning of a freefall. After owning the best record in the AL, they've dropped six of seven and starting to revert back to the team we're all familiar with. Mike Pelfrey gets the ball in this one. He's put together a fantastic season at 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA, but his peripheral numbers just don't support it. He's only striking out 4.6 batters per nine innings and is stranding 83% of his baserunners. Those are huge red flags and point to regression going forward. The Rangers are also having a surprising winning season at 31-29, but injuries are starting to curtail any efforts to make them a contender. No team has endured as many health issues as the Rangers over the last two years, but this team is still battling. Rookie Joey Gallo has added as a nice spark and the team is 16-6 over it last 22 games overall. They are better than the Twins in just about every phase of the game and should be higher favorites in this one. The play is Texas. |
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06-12-15 | Colorado Rockies v. Miami Marlins -137 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
If you're making a list of the worst free agent signings of the offseason, the Rockies signing of Kyle Kendrick looks pretty foolish right about now. The veteran right-hander could barely hold onto a job in Philadelphia, so it wasn't hard to figure out he was going to struggle pitching in Coors Field. But to be honest, Kendrick has been horrible wherever he has pitched this season. He comes in 2-7 with a 6.16 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 starts and has seen his strikeout rate plummet to 4.4 per nine innings. At this point, the Rockies should probably look at other options, but after giving him $5.5 million in the offseason that's probably not going to happen. So we'll just look to take advantage and today is a great opportunity to do that. The Marlins are just small favorites at home in this one with youngster Jose Urena on the hill. I like what Urena has brought to the table from a stuff perspective and I think he has the chance to be a staple in the Marlins rotation going forward. I also think the Marlins are playing a bit looser now that new manager Dan Jennings has been here a few weeks. They're not going to be contenders, but I do think they have a lot of good young talent that's not going to just roll over. Take Miami. |
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06-10-15 | Kansas City Royals -107 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) We cashed a ticket with the Royals last night and we'll go there again on Wednesday. Kansas City is miles better than Minnesota, but the fast start by the Twins has really distorted people's reality. The starting pitchers in this game, Edinson Volquez and Kyle Gibson, are rated similarly so the line on this game infers that the Royals are just slightly better than Minnesota. That clearly isn't the case as the Royals are better in every single phase of the game. Take Kansas City today. |
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06-09-15 | Kansas City Royals -103 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #919 Kansas City Royals over Minnesota Twins (8:10pm EST) There isn't much not to like about this Kansas City Royals team. They play baseball the right way and do a lot of the little things that other teams miss the boat on. They run the bases well, play extraordinary defense and are good at moving runners along to set up scoring chances. Their bullpen been one of the best in the league for the last two seasons and their offense is much improved over last season. Their starting pitching is the one weak link, but they have can get by with one of the best defenses in the league backing them up. The Royals defense was built for guys like today's starter Chris Young. He's a contact pitcher that relies on his teammates, and it's worked beautifully so far. In 12 games this season, Young owns a 2.56 ERA and 0.99 WHIP between the bullpen and rotation. He's throwing harder than he has in years and his strikeout rate is up as a result. He'll get a Twins team with a weak lineup that has played over their respective heads in 2015. No team has been luckier than Minnesota has in 2015, so I expect some major regression from them going forward. They might be better than everyone thought they were coming into the season, but this isn't a team that is going to contend for the playoffs when it's all said and done. The Royals are the far better team and we get a steal of a price on them in this one. |
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06-05-15 | San Diego Padres v. Cincinnati Reds -109 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Cincinnati Reds over San Diego Padres (7:10pm EST) We've pointed out on several occasions why the San Diego Padres won't be a contender unless they make more moves. They have a porous defense, a subpar infield and their rotation is overrated. They've been hovering around the .500 mark for most of the season and that's probably the ceiling for this team. Tyson Ross gets the ball for them today and he's been struggling with his control a bit this season. His walk rate is 30% higher than last season and he just doesn't look as comfortable on the mound. He'll go up against an underrated Reds lineup today. Cincinnati doesn't rate as one of the top offenses, but part of the reason is because they have been terrible with runners in scoring position. Once that normalizes, the Reds have the potential to be an upper echelon offense. Raisel Iglesias will go today and he's been better than his 5.11 ERA indicates. Take Cincinnati here. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |