Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-02-13 | Tampa Bay Rays v. Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 102 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Tampa Bay Rays/Cleveland Indians UNDER 7 (8:05pm EST) It's the AL Wild Card game tonight in Cleveland as the Indians host the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays earned their way to this game by beating the Rangers in a one-game playoff on Monday night 5-2. David Price dominated the opposition in that game and we expect to see another great pitching performance by Tampa Bay starter Alex Cobb tonight. Cobb is one of the more underrated pitchers in the league as he comes in 11-3 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 22 starts. He relishes big spots and they don't get much bigger than today in a winner take all game. His mound opponent is Danny Salazar, a 23-year old who has pitched lights out since coming up from the minors two months ago. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.13 WHIP and is striking out a whopping 11.2 batters per nine innings. The Rays have never seen Salazar, so he should have the advantage the first couple of times through the order. Both of these can hit, but their lineups aren't overpowering. If either one should happen to struggle, the managers won't hesitate to call to the pen given the circumstances. Runs are generally hard to come by in these types of games and with these two pitchers going, we should stay Under the total tonight.
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10-01-13 | Cincinnati Reds v. Pittsburgh Pirates -125 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (8:05pm EST) The playoffs have finally arrived and it begins with a National Wild Card game between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday night. These NL Central foes are certainly familiar with one another and they've also played six times over the last week and a half of the season. The Pirates won four of those six games and took the season series 11-8. The Pirates were also the better team this season, winning 94 games versus 90 for the Reds. That earned them home field advantage for this game, which was vitally important given their 50-31 home mark. The Pirates will also have the edge in the starting pitching department today, as Francisco Liriano goes up against Johnny Cueto. Liriano has been dominant this season at 16-8 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. Cueto was injured for most of the 2013 campaign and this will be only his third start since returning from the disabled list. He was pretty good in his last two starts, but you don't know what you're going to get from him in this pressure-packed game. All signs point to Pittsburgh today. They were the better team in the regular season, won the season series, are at home for this game and have an edge in the pitching matchup. Take the Pirates to advance at a relatively low price here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-25-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Seattle Mariners -106 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners over Kansas City Royals (10:10pm EST) The Kansas City Royals have had a great season. They won't be in the postseason, but they certainly exceeded expectations this season and are relevant once again on the diamond. They technically aren't mathematically eliminated at 83-74, but they know it's not happening with three teams ahead of them and only five games left to make up a four game deficit. After yesterday's 4-0 loss, defeat probably began setting in and this team has to be deflated after a valiant effort to make a return to the postseason for the first time in 28 years. This is their last game in Seattle before heading on a plane back to Chicago to close out the season. The Mariners didn't have a great season, but they're better than most people think. They have a terrible 19-29 record in one run games and are just 6-15 in extra-inning games. They have several young players on the horizon and have improved throughout the season despite what their record indicates. Hisashi Iwakuma has established himself as one of the better starting pitchers in the AL and today he'll get one final start to cap off a great season. On a team that is 20 games under .500, Iwakuma checks in at 13-6 with a 2.76 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. He should have the advantage today against a Royals lineup that will probably be hanging their heads a little lower. Take the Mariners as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-17-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Washington Nationals -129 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #952 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm EST) The Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals will play two today after the horrific incident in Washington D.C. yesterday. It should be an emotional day for Washington fans and players, which could give the team a bit of an edge today. We're focusing on Game 2 of the doubleheader for a couple of reasons. First off, the Braves have the division locked up and will probably be looking to rest a few guys on the back end. There's no reason to wear anyone down with the playoffs just two weeks away. For the Nats, these games are virtually must wins. They are still five games back in the wild card chase and can't afford too many more losses. There's no question manager Davey Johnson will utilize the lineup that gives his team the best chance to win, including the best arms out of the bullpen. That Nats also get to face veteran Freddy Garcia in the nightcap. Garcia is 37-years old and really doesn't belong in the league anymore. He is 4-6 this season with a hefty 4.86 ERA and a significantly decreasing strikeout rate of only 4.5 per nine innings. Washington has been swinging the bats better of late and could bounce Garcia very early. That could spell trouble in a doubleheader where Atlanta will surely use some of their weaker arms to avoid wear and tear. The Nats are 19-6 in their last 25 games and I think they win the second game of the doubleheader against the Braves today.
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09-11-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks v. Los Angeles Dodgers -121 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 Los Angeles Dodgers over Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10pm EST) The Los Angeles Dodgers have come back to earth a bit after a torrid run, but this is still the most complete team in all of baseball. They have one of the best lineups in the league, a great bullpen and the best 1-2-3 top of the rotation pitchers. The #3 guy in that rotation is left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu. He doesn't get as much attention as Kershaw and Greinke do, but Ryu has eclipsed expectations in his first season in the major leagues. He comes in 13-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 26 starts. He knows how to attack hitters and is adept and keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding the home run ball. He'll face an Arizona Diamondbacks team that has just fallen out of contention recently. They're probably not in the best state of mind at the moment, so the Dodgers are catching them at the perfect time. The Dodgers are 45-28 at home this season, while the D-backs have struggled on the road. These last couple of weeks are important for playoff positioning and home field advantage, so I expect the Dodgers to get back on the winning track. Take them today at a very reasonable price at home.
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08-28-13 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (8:40pm EST) The season has long been over for the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies. The defending World Series champs fell well short of expectations in 2013, but one bright spots continues to be left-hander Madison Bumgarner. He comes in 11-8 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.04 WHIP - his best season yet as a major leaguer. He'll get a tough assignment today pitching in Coors Field, but the Rockies offense has been as good lately and is without Carlos Gonzalez. On the other side is right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The 25-year old has put up the best numbers of his career as well, but he's not at the level of a Bumgarner yet. His peripheral statistics show a pitcher who is about a run worse than his ERA indicates. The Rockies offense is also a bit overrated due to the inflation of Coors Field. They are a middle of the pack hitting team that looks a lot better on paper than they really are. Their biggest problem is on defense, where they are at the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. That doesn't do their pitchers any favors and is even more frustrating in a big park like Coors Field. The Giants are the better team and have the favorable pitching matchup today. Take San Francisco here.
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08-25-13 | Boston Red Sox v. Los Angeles Dodgers +102 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Los Angeles Dodgers Boston Red Sox (8:05pm ET) The rubber game of the series goes today in Los Angeles as the Dodgers host the Boston Red Sox in the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week. These are two of the best teams in the game and it could be a potential World Series matchup in October. But clearly no one has been playing at the level that the Dodgers have recently. They are 46-11 in their last 57 games and have not lost the last 18 series they competed in. Today is the series deciding game, so they'll need to win to keep that streak alive. I'm sure they are well aware of their accomplishments and will be 100% focused to try and keep the run intact. Our money is on the hottest team in baseball. They are an underdog at home, which is complete disrespect. Take the Dodgers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-24-13 | Washington Nationals -107 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #979 Washington Nationals over Kansas City Royals (7:10pm ET) We mentioned it yesterday, but it certainly bears repeating. If this game was taking place during the first week of April this season (with these pitching matchups), the line would certainly be 40-50 cents higher for the Nationals. Now that's not the only reason to make a play on Washington today, but it's a good start. Jordan Zimmermann is one of the better pitchers in the National League at 14-7 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He is coming off of one of his worst performances of the year and was embarrassed after giving up eight runs in five innings against the Cubs last time out. That should motivate him to pitch well today in Kansas City, as good pitchers don't let themselves get knocked around on back-to-back occasions very often. The Royals are feeling pretty down about themselves after losing 9 of 11 and falling out of contention for a playoff spot. They were on the cusp of the wild card race after a very strong run at the end of July and beginning of August. But now they are on the verge of falling back to .500 with a loss today. Wade Davis pitches for the Royals and he has been a ticking time bomb this season. He's 6-9 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.75 WHIP and it's a bit surprising he's still in the Royals rotation. Washington has been hitting better recently and I have no doubt that they'll get some good hacks on the struggling right-hander. Take the Nats as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-21-13 | Washington Nationals -105 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Washington Nationals over Chicago Cubs (8:05pm ET) The Washington Nationals have had a terrible season, but they think they still have a shot for a wild card. It's not going to happen, but as long as they believe it they may be a valuable team to back. They still have plenty of talent and they haven't made a big run yet. Today they are essentially an even bet against an inferior opponent in the Cubs. If you just purely at numbers, this line seems about right. However, when you are looking at betting opportunities you have to project what's going to happen and not what already happened. This Nationals team is far superior to the Cubs and we'll gladly take them at even price today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-20-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +100 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Tampa Bay Rays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) We played the Tampa Bay Rays over the Baltimore Orioles in game one of this series, and we like them again today for all of the same reasons. The Rays are just better in every important phase of the game from hitting, to bullpens, to defense and to today's starting pitchers. People may forget, but there was a long stretch earlier this season where Alex Cobb was the best pitcher on the Rays' staff and one of the best pitchers in the league. But then he was struck by a line drive in the head and it changed his season and his life. He's back in the rotation now making his second start since coming off the disabled list. In watching his first star back he looked just like the old Cobb. He went five innings (on a pitch count) and only allowed one run, three hits and two walks while striking out six. He'll have a stiffer challenge today against a dangerous O's lineup, but I expect him to do well. Take the Rays here at the underdog price.
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08-17-13 | Washington Nationals +110 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 8-7 | Win | 110 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Washington Nationals over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) Stephen Strasburg was once the talk of baseball and everyone's favorite young pitcher. But a mediocre season by the Washington Nationals has taken a lot of the attention off of the Nats ace, and that bodes well for us today. Strasburg has pitched brilliantly in his last five outings, registering a 2.37 ERA and 0.79 WHIP to go along with a nice 44-6 K/BB ratio. That's pure dominance and the Strasburg that everyone expected to see after breaking on the scene in 2010. He'll face a red hot Braves team today in Atlanta. The Braves are 18-2 in their last 20 games and have a stranglehold on the division now. The Nationals are 15.5 games back in the NL East and their only hope is a long shot at a wild card spot should one of the teams in the NL Central falter. The fact that Atlanta has such a big lead could play to Washington's advantage here today as this game is much bigger for them than it is for Atlanta. Mike Minor will toe the rubber for the Braves and he's put together a pretty good 2013 campaign. He's 12-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.04 WHIP and has improved his peripherals across the board. However, he's coming off of back-to-back subpar outings against the Marlins and these Nationals. This game is all about Strasburg though. He's pitching about as well as anyone in the league right now and is a steal at an underdog price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-13-13 | New York Mets v. Los Angeles Dodgers -113 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #912 Los Angeles Dodgers over New York Mets (10:10pm ET) Since 1950, only one team has had a better stretch over 45 games than the Dodgers have right now. Los Angeles is 37-8 during their current run and they |
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08-09-13 | Milwaukee Brewers v. Seattle Mariners -126 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -126 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Milwaukee Brewers (10:10pm ET) We've been pumping up the Seattle Mariners for quite some time. They haven't been knocking anyone's socks off, but they've been good enough to cash more tickets than they lose and bad enough to keep the spotlight off of themselves. That's the perfect scenario in the betting world and we'll continue to look to play them when the line is right. Today is one of those opportunities as they host the Milwaukee Brewers in the first of three games in Safeco Field. The Brewers aren't too familiar with Safeco and it's a fairly long flight from Milwaukee. That should give the M's a little more home field advantage than normal in today's matchup. And speaking of home field advantage, Seattle starter Joe Saunders certainly knows how to use Safeco to his advantage. He has better numbers there than anywhere else during his career and 2013 is no exception. His ERA on the road is a puffy 5.33, but in Seattle he checks in at a cool 3.62. The Brewers are also a mess on offense right now with all of their injuries. Starting third baseman Aramis Ramirez is hurt along with second baseman Rickie Weeks. And of course Ryan Braun is gone for the season due to his PED suspension. That leaves the Brewers with some pretty big holes and some easy outs in the lineup. Take Seattle tonight as our 10-unit Game.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-07-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -120 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #914 Seattle Mariners over Toronto Blue Jays (3:40pm ET) A quick glance at the names in the lineups and pitching staffs wouldn
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08-01-13 | Seattle Mariners -110 v. Boston Red Sox | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #917 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (7:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners have cooled off a bit, but they are still an undervalued commodity in the betting markets. They are 15-9 in their last 24 games and have brought home bettors over six units during that stretch. Today they send their ace Felix Hernandez to the hill to take on the Boston Red Sox. Hernandez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last few years, but this year he is taking it to another level. He
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08-01-13 | St. Louis Cardinals v. Pittsburgh Pirates -111 | Top | 13-0 | Loss | -111 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #904 Pittsburgh Pirates over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates look to earn a rare five game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals tonight in PNC Park. This was the biggest series for the Pirates franchise in 20+ years and they are definitely answering the bell. They came into the series down 1.5 games in the NL Central and now have a 2.5 game lead coming into today's contest. Right-hander Charlie Morton goes for Pittsburgh and he's done a fine job after being inserted into the rotation mid-season due to injuries. He comes in 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.29 WHIP and hasn't had a really bad outing in his eight starts. The Cardinals have not been hitting the ball lately and are now without team leader Yadier Molina, which will hurt significantly on offense and defense. St. Louis is averaging a meager 1.4 runs per game over the last seven games. St. Louis will turn to Joe Kelly as they look to stop the bleeding. Kelly has pitched out of the bullpen for most of the season but was added to the rotation about two weeks ago. He's pitched alright but surely won't be able to give the Cardinals more than five or six innings. That leaves three of four innings for the shaky bullpen in the late innings - where the Pirates thrive. Pittsburgh has one of the best bullpens in baseball, so if this one is close late in the game the Pirates are big favorites. Pittsburgh has too much momentum here and I think they complete the five-game sweep tonight.
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07-27-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -137 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -137 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #972 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm ET) The Seattle Mariners have continued to put money in our pockets and today we get another great opportunity to back them. The M
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07-24-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners +100 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Seattle Mariners over Cleveland Indians (3:40pm ET) Until the Seattle Mariners are taken seriously, we will continue to call their number at the betting window. The M's are an underdog at home versus a team that they are playing much better than right now and probably will have a better record than very shortly. The Mariners are now 16-9 in their last 25 games despite playing the toughest schedule in the majors during that span. Two left-handers take the hill in today's matchup - Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. Both of them are better pitchers than their surface stats give them credit for, but Saunders is a totally different pitcher in Seattle than he is anywhere else. In 2013, his ERA is over two runs better at home versus the road at 3.11. Kazmir has had a nice comeback this season, but he's slipped up enough lately to heed some warning. He's walked three batters in each of his last three outings and his strikeouts have been declining steadily as the season has worn on. Coming into this season, Kazmir had pitched a total of only 1 2/3 innings in two seasons, so it would understandable if the 92 innings he's thrown this season is starting to take its toll. We'll continue to ride the streaking Mariners today.
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07-23-13 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners -111 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #978 Seattle Mariners (-110) over Cleveland Indians (10:10pm ET) This may sound like a broken record based on our selections over the last couple of weeks, but we like the Seattle Mariners. They are a perfect value team that flies under the radar and they've certainly proved that recently. They are 15-9 in their last 24 games despite playing the toughest schedule in baseball during that stretch. The M's don't look like much on paper, especially offensively, but when you consider the fact that they play in one of the best pitcher's parks in baseball they aren't too bad. We'll continue to put our money on the line with them while they're hot and not getting any respect.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-22-13 | Cleveland: U Jimenez v. Seattle: A Harang -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #926 Seattle Mariners over Cleveland Indians (10:10pm ET) They don't get much attention in the betting markets, but that's how we like it. The Seattle Mariners are quietly on the one of the best runs in the majors over the last three weeks. At 14-9 in their last 23 games, it doesn't sound like much of a run. But when you consider who they have played, it's spectacular. Over that stretch, they played against some of the toughest teams in the majors including the A's, Pirates, Rangers, Reds, Red Sox and Angels. To start the second half they squashed the hapless Astros with ease in a three-game sweep. The combined score in the series was 26-14. The Mariners now head back home to take on the Cleveland Indians in a three-game set. Right-hander Aaron Harang will toe the rubber for them. He's had an up and down season at 4-8 with a 5.38 ERA, but his peripheral numbers point to a much better pitcher than that. His WHIP is just 1.29 and he has had excellent control walking just 1.6 batters per nine innings. His home run rate is higher than he would like, but that shouldn't come into play as much in Safeco Field today. And due to that fact, Harang has pitched much better at home all season long as his ERA is over a run lower there. As inconsistent as Harang has been, the Indians' Ubaldo Jimenez can top it. The 29-year old right-hander has pitched some absolute gems this year and followed them up with some extremely short outings. You never know what you'll get from him, but I expect the hot swinging bats of the Mariners to produce coming off a series in which they scored 26 runs. Seattle is in a groove right now and we get a gift with this small price on them at home. I'm a believer, take the M's.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-19-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Chicago White Sox +125 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #980 Chicago White Sox over Atlanta Braves (8:10pm ET) The second half of the season is here, and for some teams It
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07-16-13 | American League v. National League UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 52 h 27 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take American League/National League UNDER 8 (Tuesday, 8:15pm ET) A collection of the best baseball players in the world will get together on Tuesday night for the 2013 All-Star Game at Citi Field. When most people think of All-Star games in the sports world, they immediately conjure up thoughts about high-scoring affairs with little defensive effort by each side. While that is true in the other three major sports, it doesn
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07-14-13 | Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -131 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -131 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #910 Los Angeles Dodgers over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) The red hot Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies to close out the final series before the break. The Dodgers have found every which way to win ball games over the last few weeks, catapulting themselves from the cellar of the NL West up to second place. They are 17-4 in their 21 games and are now just 2.5 games out of first place. Right-hander Ricky Nolasco will be entrusted to keep the momentum going today. The 30-year old was just acquired a week ago and he looked comfortable in the Dodger uniform from the get go. He shut down the Diamondbacks, holding them to just one run in seven innings to go along with five strikeouts and no walks. The Rockies lineup hasn't been producing much over the last couple of weeks with several guys banged up. They're starting to get healthier but things have yet to click for them. Nolasco should get a friendly welcome in Dodgers Stadium and I expect Los Angeles to come out on top today and keep their momentum going.
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07-12-13 | San Francisco Giants -108 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 San Francisco Giants over San Diego Padres (10:10pm ET) As we head into the final weekend series before the All-Star break, two teams that can't wait for a few days off match up tonight. The San Diego Padres host the San Francisco Giants in the second game of their four game series at Petco. There probably isn't a team in baseball that has been playing worse than the Giants or Padres have been playing over the last couple of weeks. The Padres are fresh off 10-game losing streak while the Giants are 2-14 after Wednesday's loss to the Mets. But somebody has to win today and I like the chances for the Giants. The Padres are nursing several key injuries to their everyday lineup right now, while the Giants recently got some of their guys back. Out are Yasmani Grandal, Jedd Gyorko, Cameron Maybin and Yonder Alonso for the Pads. Those are four significant contributors for San Diego and are the main reason that they've really struggled to plate runs. They'll also be sending Sean O'Sullivan to the mound, who will be making his first major league start since 2011. The young right-hander has spent most of his career in the minors but is getting a shot to show what he's got today. He hasn't been particularly impressive against weaker competition, so it's tough to picture him having success at the highest level. The Giants are a smart hitting team and should be patient enough to put some pressure on the youngster in the early innings. Chad Gaudin gets the nod for the Giants, and he's been solid since being moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He's made five starts and has an ERA of 2.86 and a 0.99 WHIP. That's much better than anyone expected from a guy that's spent the last three years in the pen. And I like his chances of keeping it up against a depleted Padres lineup. Take the Giants today laying a small price.
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07-10-13 | Boston: F Doubront v. Seattle: A Harang +120 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #954 Seattle Mariners over Boston Red Sox (10:10pm ET) The Red Sox and Mariners battle today in Seattle in the third game of their four game set. There
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07-09-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins +1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Miami Marlins (+1.5 RL) over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm ET) The Miami Marlins have lost four straight, but don't let that skew your opinion on this team right now. They've actually gone 19-15 over their last 34 games and are a much better team than they were in April and May. One of the biggest reasons for their struggles had to do with injuries. They had as many as five of their regulars on the disabled list at one time including superstar Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton and most of the others are back now and they've been scoring more runs ever since. Today they send right-hander Henderson Alvarez to the hill. He was on the disabled list for most of the season as well, and just came back last week. He looked pretty good in his minor league rehab starts and also in his first outing back against the Braves. The Atlanta Braves have a nice record on the season at 51-38, but since June 9th they are just 12-14 and have been very inconsistent at the plate. They go with youngster Julio Teheran today and he's put together a pretty good season to date. However, he hasn't been nearly as sharp on the road where his ERA is a run and a half higher. The Marlins are a big home underdog in this matchup and I don't think it's warranted based on how these teams are playing right now. We'll take Miami.
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07-08-13 | New York Mets -106 v. San Francisco Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 New York Mets over San Francisco Giants (10:15pm ET) We're past the halfway point of the 2013 season and the New York Mets' Matt Harvey is still dominating big league hitters on a consistent basis. In fact, if the Cy Young were being given out right now, Matt Harvey would be able to make a heck of a case that he deserves it. He comes in 7-2 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 18 starts. His strikeout rate is off the charts at 10.3 batters per nine innings and he's walking less than two batters per nine innings. He doesn't have any weaknesses and today he will face a San Francisco Giants team that has really scuffled at the plate for the last few weeks. Over their last 20 games the Giants are averaging just 2.2 runs per game, which is dead last in the majors over their time frame. The next closest team has scored 17 more runs than the Giants over that span! So Matt Harvey is absolutely the last guy the Giants want to see tonight. On the other side, Tim Lincecum will be in charge of holding down the Mets hitters. Lincecum has had another inconsistent campaign in 2013, registering a 4.66 ERA in 17 starts. That is on the heels of a season in which he held a 5.18 ERA and where he was demoted to the bullpen in the playoffs. Lincecum is in danger of losing his job once again, and I fully expect it to happen shortly. He just doesn't have the control anymore and can't avoid the big inning. The Mets don't have a powerful offense by any stretch of the imagination, but Lincecum almost always allows at least three or four runs no matter the opponent. Take New York behind Matt Harvey here at a very short price.
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07-07-13 | Miami Marlins +1.5 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #957 Miami Marlins (+1.5 RL) over St. Louis Cardinals (2:15pm ET) It's been the tale of two seasons for the Miami Marlins in 2013. In April and May, this team was simply abysmal. On May 31 they were 13-41 and they have now gone 19-13 in 32 games since then. There's no question that this still isn't a very good baseball team, but they are certainly undervalued at this point. Their lineup has been producing ever since Giancarlo Stanton returned from the disabled list and their starting pitching has been very good. One of the guys that has made the rotation good is rookie phenom Jose Fernandez. The 20-year old is making his case for Rookie of the Year as he comes in at 5-4 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 16 starts. He throws in the upper 90's, averaging nearly 95mph on his fastball and he's striking out more than a batter per inning. The St. Louis Cardinals will definitely have their hands full. They faced Fernandez about a month ago and were beaten by him soundly. Fernandez struck out 10 batters in seven innings in that game and he only allowed two earned runs. I expect more of the same today and we get an excellent underdog price on the Marlins. The Cardinal will also be without their leader Yadier Molina, who is nursing a knee injury, making this price even sweeter.
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07-05-13 | Atlanta Braves v. Philadelphia Phillies -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta Braves (7:05pm ET) Two veteran starting pitchers go at it as the Philadelphia Phillies kick off a weekend series with the Atlanta Braves. Tim Hudson and Cliff Lee have been solid pitchers for quite some time, but only one of them has continued his dominance. Cliff Lee is a like a fine wine - he's been getting better with age. His last couple of seasons have been excellent and this season he's putting up some of the best numbers of his career at the age of 34. So far in 17 starts he's 9-2 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and he still has excellent control walking only 1.5 batters per nine innings. In only two of his starts he has allowed more than three earned runs, so he is giving his team a shot to win each and every game. He'll face a Braves lineup that has had a hard time hitting him in the past, so I expect that continue today. Hudson has stayed in pretty good health and managed to keep a spot in the Atlanta rotation at the age of 37. However, he hasn't been nearly as effective as he was a few years back. He's having his worst season ERA wise since 2006 and the Braves have lost more games than they've won when he's been on the mound. I think this Braves ballclub is overrated even though they've been sitting atop the NL East for the entire season. Since getting off to a hot start in April at 12-1, they are just 37-35 in the 72 games since. They have some glaring holes in the lineup and have been extremely inconsistent in scoring runs. I like the Phillies today at home behind on of the NL's best pitchers.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-29-13 | San Francisco Giants -103 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) It's been a difficult year Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants, but things are starting to come together. The veteran right-hander comes into today's start in Colorado with a 5-4 record and 4.45 ERA on the season, but his last four starts have been the old Cain. He has a 2.02 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in those outings and his control has been getting a lot better. He hasn't walked a single batter in his last two outings and has 18 strikeouts to his name. Pitching in Coors Field won't be easy, but he has an excellent track record against the Rockies' regulars in his career so I expect him to pitch well today. The Giants haven't been swinging the bats very well lately, but a lot of that had to do with injuries. Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro were both out for a bit, but they have returned and are contributing again. Jorge De La Rosa gets the ball for Rockies. He's had a nice season, but he hasn't looked as sharp recently walking three batters in each of his last three starts. The Rockies will also be without the heart and soul of their team today - Troy Tulowitzki. His absence hurts on both the offense and defense and in the clubhouse. I'll take Cain and the Giants in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-22-13 | Minnesota Twins v. Cleveland Indians -146 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #920 Cleveland Indians over Minnesota Twins (7:15pm ET) He's one of the hottest starting pitchers in baseball and most baseball fans couldn't pick him out of a lineup. His name is Corey Kluber and he's been amazing in his last six starts for the Cleveland Indians. During that stretch the right-hander has a 2.19 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with an exceptional 40-6 K/BB ratio. There's no telling if Kluber can keep this up for an entire season, but right now he's untouchable. The Minnesota Twins don't have a daunting lineup, so there's no reason to believe they can break through against the youngster. The Indians have been playing great ball lately winning seven of their last nine and their pitching has been the main reason. Over those nine contests, they have held opponents to an average of just 2.33 runs per game. They face right-hander P.J. Walters for the Twins today and he doesn't have very good stuff. He's only had five starts this season and has managed to keep his team in the game in most of them, but he's not the type of guy that will dominate. I like the Indians to get an easy win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-21-13 | Texas Rangers -102 v. St. Louis Cardinals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Texas Rangers over St. Louis Cardinals (8:15pm ET) Two of baseball's best go at in a rematch of the epic 2011 World Series. What the St. Louis Cardinals have been doing on offense has simply been amazing in 2013.They lead the majors in runs scored, but it's how they are doing it that is mind-boggling. They are only 11th in home runs in the NL, but they are hitting a ridiculous .340 with runners in scoring position. That's 65 points higher than the next best team in the league! Their on-base percentage with runners in scoring position is .410 - which is 36 points higher than the second best. This has obviously been the key to their success in 2013, but the fact is they simply cannot sustain that level of success going forward. There is going to be obvious regression and that should supply us with some value in the near future. The Texas Rangers will get a crack at them today, and I like the pitching matchup for them. A pair of left-handers face off as veteran Derek Holland goes against rookie Tyler Lyons. Holland is having a banner year in 2013 while Lyons has had his bumps in the road for sure. I made the line on this game close to -120 for the Rangers, so we'll gladly take them at close to a pick em price here.
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06-11-13 | New York Yankees +101 v. Oakland A's | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees at Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) The New York Yankees have been a mash unit this season, but the troops are slowly coming back. Mark Teixeira and Kevin Youkilis are back in the daily lineup and Curtis Granderson isn't far behind. It's amazing that New York was able to stay afloat without so many key parts, but they have a lot of veterans and leadership on this team and it's definitely shown. CC Sabathia is one of those leaders, and despite a few bumps here and there he looks like he finally has it together. He pitched a complete game in his last outing while striking out nine and walking just one. He did allow four runs, but the Yankees jumped out to an early 6-0 lead and Sabathia cruised from there. In the outing before that, Sabathia struck out 10 batters with no walks against the Red Sox. He won that game as he only allowed one run in 7 1/3 innings. His velocity has also been steadily climbing since the end of April and that's a good sign for the tall left-hander. Bartolo Colon and the Oakland A's will face the Yankees tonight. Colon has put up solid numbers this season but he'll have his hands full with a Yankees lineup that features lots of lefties. He faced the Yankees earlier this season and surrendered three runs in just 5 1/3 innings in a loss. He's been throwing the ball very well lately, but he doesn't throw hard and relies on pinpoint control. The Yankees have a veteran lineup that has seen Colon plenty of times before, so they know what they're up against and have had good results against him in the past. Both of these teams come into today's game playing good baseball. The Yankees have won six out of seven and the A's are 18-5 in their last 23 contests. I give the Yanks the edge with the better starting pitcher and the better bullpen in case things are tight in the late innings. Play New York as our 10-unit Game.
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06-09-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Arizona Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (4:10pm ET) The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Francisco Giants in the rubber game of the series this afternoon. They don't get a lot of attention, but the Diamondbacks have been leading the National League West for most of the season. They are a balanced team without any big superstars, but they don't have any big weaknesses either. They're also very deep and have been able to stay atop the division despite missing several key players for large chunks of time. One of the guys who have stepped in due to injury is today's starter Tyler Skaggs. And just like the replacements before him, he has fit in beautifully. In his first two starts he is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with a 13-3 K/BB ratio. Skaggs was a highly touted prospect in the system that couldn't make the team in the spring due to the ascension of Patrick Corbin, but he clearly has some talent. He may never be demoted back to the minor leagues again if he can continue to pitch like this. The Giants will have their hands full with Skaggs today, especially since Pablo Sandoval is getting a day off. He's been nursing a foot injury, so San Francisco is letting him rest in this one. Reliever Chad Gaudin gets the ball for the Giants today. He is filling in for the injured Ryan Vogelsong in the rotation. Gaudin filled in well as a starter last time out, but I don't think he has the stamina to go more than five or six innings on a regular basis. He hasn't been a regular starter since 2007, so the expectations are certainly low. The Diamondbacks are the better overall team and have the better starting pitcher throwing today. They're also at home, so we get a steal of a price in this one.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-07-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates -109 v. Chicago Cubs | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 56 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 Pittsburgh Pirates over Chicago Cubs (2:20pm ET) The Pittsburgh Pirates have their best team in over 20 years and this will be the year they are above .500 at season's end. They have a good lineup, a phenomenal bullpen and some good arms in the rotation. One of those arms is left-hander Francisco Liriano. The 29-year old missed the first few weeks of the season, but since coming back he's been pitching better than ever. He comes into today's start with a 2.17 ERA and 1.21 WHIP and is striking out a ridiculous 12.1 batters per nine innings. He's also walking fewer batters than usual and inducing ground balls at a higher rate. Expect him to continue his domination today as he faces a Chicago Cubs lineup that really struggles against southpaws. The Cubs will go to battle with a left-hander of their own - Travis Wood. He's putting together a nice season in his own right, but he's been fortunate to post a 2.75 ERA. His strikeout and walk rates are very average and he doesn't keep the ball down either. He's just an averaged pitcher disguised as someone who looks improved. We should see some regression from Wood the rest of the season and I think the Pirates lineup can get that started this afternoon. Even if Wood keeps the Cubs close, the game probably comes down to the bullpens. That's where the Cubs have given away countless games over the last couple of seasons and 2013 is no exception. The Cubs bullpen ranks 14th in the National League in ERA while the Pirates rank 2nd. The Pirates have the edge in all departments in this game and barely favored. That puts us on Pittsburgh as our 10-unit Game for June.
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06-05-13 | Texas Rangers v. Boston Red Sox -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 Boston Red Sox over Texas Rangers (7:10pm ET) When the Boston Red Sox were getting a lot of publicity due to their turnaround earlier on the in the season, the names Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz were being tossed around for the primary reason. However, veteran pitcher John Lackey has been pitching fantastic as well but has sort of been lost in the shuffle. Coming into today's start, the 34-year old has a 2.96 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go along with his 8.9 strikeout rate per nine innings. Those numbers are even better than the version of Lackey before his big injuries. It's only been eight starts, but I think it's safe to say that Lackey is back. He'll go up against a tough Texas lineup today, but one that's not as potent as it's been in the past. The Rangers are just 7th in the AL in runs scored, which isn't very impressive given that they play in a hitter-friendly environment. They're also without Ian Kinsler right now and Adrian Beltre is also banged up. Texas will counter with Alexei Ogando, who is coming back from a bicep injury. The Rangers aren't 100% sure that Ogando should stay in the rotation due to his inconsistency, as he might be a better fit in the bullpen where he excelled last season. I would have to agree, as Ogando has trouble with the batting order the second and third time around. The Red Sox have been swinging the bats very well lately, which will make things even harder on Ogando today. Boston leads the AL in runs scored and 41 runs in their last five games, including a 17-run barrage last night. The price on this one is just a little bit too low. Take Boston at home here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-02-13 | Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees -110 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 New York Yankees over Boston Red Sox (8:05pm ET) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox. This is the rubber game of the series as these teams split the first pair in two games that weren't very close. The Yankees haven't been playing very good baseball of late as they've dropped six of seven and have been struggling to put runs on the board. But that's sure to change as the Bronx Bombers just welcomed back Kevin Youkilis and Mark Teixeira on Friday. The replacements for New York have done pretty well overall given the vast amount of injuries to the team, but these are definitely major upgrades and it changes the entire complexion of the infield. In short, expect the bats to start waking up and the Yankees to put more runs on the board. Hiroki Kuroda goes for the Yanks today and he's put together another solid season. The 38-year old veteran is 6-3 with a miniscule 2.39 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 starts in 2013. Unlike his teammate Phil Hughes, Kuroda is fit to pitch in Yankees Stadium as he's good at keeping the ball down and avoiding the home run ball in a park where the ball jumps. Clay Buchholz gets the ball for the BoSox and he's had a nice year as well at 7-0 with a 1.73 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. However, Buchholz missed his turn in the rotation last time around due to a collarbone injury. He's giving it a shot tonight, but there's no guarantee that he's 100% for this one. Even if Buchholz pitches well, I think this will be a close game that comes down to the bullpens. And if that's the case, the Yankees have a huge edge with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th innings. Take the Yankees at home tonight.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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06-01-13 | New York Mets -107 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #951 New York Mets over Miami Marlins (4:00pm ET) The Miami Marlins are on pace to lose nearly 110 games and it could be even worse if they don't get healthy soon. Baseball's most embarrassing team is winning just 25% of its games and their disabled list is starting to stack up. They currently have a dozen players on the list and most notably superstar Giancarlo Stanton. The Fish are averaging only 2.76 runs per game in 2013 and without Stanton their lineup is Triple-A grade. The linesmakers and betting markets haven't quite caught up to just how bad this team is, evidenced by the fact that they are still down 20 units on the season as a team. Today's line also doesn't reflect it as they are basically even with the Mets. Now the New York Mets aren't a great team at 22-30 on the season, but they have much more talent than the Marlins do. In fact, they just swept the Yankees in four games earlier this week in impressive fashion. The starting pitching matchup does favor Miami today as they send rookie Jose Fernandez to the mound. He's been one of very few bright spots on this club, but his last three starts haven't been as good. The league is catching up and I don't expect much more success in his first season on a team without any support. In all other areas, the Mets are clearly the better squad. Take the Mets at a gift price against one of the worst teams in the modern era.
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05-31-13 | Washington Nationals -106 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #909 Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves (7:30pm ET) The Washington Nationals haven't been playing to their talent level this season at just 27-27. However, there are still over 100 games remaining in 2013 and I feel like this team has it in them to eventually turn this ship around. This weekend is a good place to start as they go up against the first place Atlanta Braves starting on Friday night. Stephen Strasburg gets the ball for the Nats and he's coming off of his best outing of the season last time out. He pitched a season high eight innings against the Phillies allowing just one run while strikeout out nine and walking none. He hasn't been as sharp as he was last season, but this might be the start he needs to get himself over the hump. Rookie Julio Teheran will pitch for the Braves in this one. He has lots of potential but is still trying to figure things out at the major league level. The Braves are also extremely depleted in their bullpen with three of their top guys out. That could be a huge factor if Teheran struggles, or if the game is tight in the late innings. I like Strasburg and the Nats to notch a win today in Atlanta.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-29-13 | Oakland A's v. San Francisco Giants -123 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland A's (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants and Oakland A's shift their series to AT&T Park on Wednesday night. Right-hander Tim Lincecum goes up against southpaw Tommy Milone in what should be a good game. Lincecum has pitched much better than his 4.75 ERA indicates. His biggest problem has been his control and avoiding the big inning. He's striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings and is getting enough groundballs, so I think he can overcome the occasional walk with the kind of stuff he has. His mound presence has also been a lot better than it was last season. The Giants have been swinging the bats well and are the best offense in the National League on a park-adjusted basis. They should be able to give Milone some problems, as he's a much different pitcher away from home. He had some of the biggest home/road splits last season and that's carried forward into this season. Both of these teams have good team chemistry and send out two capable starters to the hill today. I just like this Giants team more than the A' s and prefer Lincecum at home to Milone on the road. San Francisco is the play.
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05-25-13 | Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers -123 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -123 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #906 Milwaukee Brewers over Pittsburgh Pirates (4:10pm ET) Not all trends in baseball mean anything, but today we have one that is worth looking at. Since 2006, the Pittsburgh Pirates are just 10-50 in their 60 games in Miller Park. That is the worst such mark of any team versus any other team away from home during that span. These are just two strong home teams, so it makes some sense that the Brewers have done really well against the Pirates and can expect the domination to continue. Two fairly weak starting pitchers square off in this one, so I'm expecting this game to be decided more by the offenses than anything else. The Brewers and Pirates have scored about the same number of runs this season, but Milwaukee hits much better against left-handers and they are facing southpaw Jeff Locke today. The Brewers have a potent lineup that may feature three All-Stars this summer - Ryan Braun, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez. Don't forget that they also have Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks as well. This one could turn into a slug fest and I like the Brewers chances to outslug the Pirates if that's the case. Take Milwaukee at a very acceptable price given the history.
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05-24-13 | Colorado Rockies v. San Francisco Giants -144 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #964 San Francisco Giants over Colorado Rockies (10:15pm ET) The San Francisco Giants host the Colorado Rockies as the two teams begin a three-game set in AT&T Park this weekend. These teams met last week in Colorado and the Rockies took three of the four games in that series. However, the Rockies are a very tough team to beat in Coors Field, so I expect this series to be a complete 180 from last week. Both teams have identical 26-21 records overall, but the Giants are 17-8 at home this season while the Rockies are just 10-12 on the road. The Giants are also better than the Rockies in every phase of the game. They have the better starting pitcher today, the better bullpen, they play better defense and they also have a better offense after taking into account park effects. Tim Lincecum is the Giants starter and he's looked really good overall despite a few rough outings. His peripheral numbers have improved from last season and he's slowly getting back to his old form. Tyler Chatwood goes for the Rockies and he's been a great bet against guy during his career. He's struggled with his confidence and I've never really liked his stuff very much. This game has the Giants written all over it.
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05-21-13 | New York Yankees +106 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm ET) Phil Hughes has given up 13 runs in his last two starts and has a ridiculous 18.47 ERA in those outings. In the four starts previous, he had a 1.93 ERA and a 30-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio. But that's who Hughes is - an inconsistent pitcher who has more than his share of ups and downs. But one thing can definitely be said for Hughes is that he shouldn't be allowed to pitch in Yankee Stadium. He's a right-handed fly ball pitcher, and that's not good in a stadium with a short porch in right field. Today we get him on the road, where he's been more comfortable his entire career. The Baltimore Orioles are sliding a bit lately, losing six straight games. I didn't think this team was as strong as advertised last season, and expected significant regression in 2013. After a hot start, I think we're starting to see it. The ageless Freddy Garcia will get the ball for the O's today, and that's not a good sign. Sweaty Freddy has a 5.51 ERA and is only striking out 3.3 batters per nine innings. He's just a stopgap filling in for injuries right now, so Baltimore would be happy to just get five innings from him each start. The Yankees offense has been surprising this season given all of their injury problems. Now they're starting to get guys back, and that's scary for the rest of the league as the Yankees are in first place at the moment. If this game should happen to come down to bullpens, the Yanks have an advantage there with Robertson and Rivera in the 8th and 9th. I like the Yanks to continue their hot start and get the win today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-20-13 | Washington Nationals v. San Francisco Giants -138 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #962 San Francisco Giants over Washington Nationals (10:15pm ET) It's been a tough year for San Francisco's Ryan Vogelsong. At 1-4 with an 8.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP he's been one of the worst pitchers in the National League. Manager Bruce Bochy has already hinted that this might be his last chance to save his job in the rotation. Vogelsong has never been a great pitcher, but has always gotten the job done and put up decent numbers over the course of his career. He's 35-years old, so he's obviously past his prime, but I think he can get it together and still be effective for the Giants. His peripheral numbers indicate an ERA in the mid-4's, so he is obviously experiencing some bad luck during this stretch. He's pitching at home today and that's where he's been most comfortable over the last few seasons. He'll face a Nationals lineup that hasn't been able to produce much this season. Washington is 13th in runs scored in the league and they're without Jayson Werth and maybe Bryce Harper today. Washington is just 3-6 in their last nine games and this will be their fourth different city in nine days. They're also going with reliever Zach Duke as their starting pitcher today to replace the injured Ross Detwiler. Duke has an 8.40 ERA in nine relief appearances this season and barely made the Washington roster to begin with. He's only pitched one complete season over the last four years, so he's obviously struggled to keep it together recently. I like Vogelsong to come up with a strong start today and get the win over the Nationals.
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05-19-13 | Detroit Tigers v. Texas Rangers -115 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Texas Rangers over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm ET) It's the ESPN Sunday Night Game of the Week, and we have a good one. Derek Holland and the Texas Rangers host the Detroit Tigers in a battle between division leaders. Holland has really elevated his game in 2013, improving from a 4.67 ERA last season to a 2.93 ERA this season. He's done it by increasing his strikeout rate and significantly reducing his walk totals. Manager Ron Washington has pointed to Holland's enhanced work ethic as the reason for his success. Right now the confidence level for the 26-year old is at an all-time high and that will come in handy against a difficult Detroit lineup. The Tigers lead the American League in runs scored, but they don't have a lineup built to hit lefties very well. The Tigers have also had some trouble scoring runs in Arlington, especially in this series where they've averaged only 2.7 runs per game in the first three contests. The Rangers have averaged 6.0 runs in this series. Right-hander Doug Fister goes for the Tigers and he's as steady as they come, but hasn't been dominant in 2013. The Rangers lineup is not easy to navigate either and they've been swinging it well of late. In their last eight games, the Rangers have averaged 6.4 runs per game. This should be a fun game to watch, but I like Holland over Fister and the way that the Rangers are swinging the bats.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-17-13 | Kansas City Royals -113 v. Oakland A's | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #925 Kansas City Royals over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) Jarrod Parker hasn't been himself this season for the Oakland A's. He enters today's start at 2-5 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in eight starts. His biggest problem has been his control, as he's walking 4.9 batters per nine innings and his strikeout rate has declined from last season. He's battled some neck injuries, which obviously is affecting him more than he is leading on. Today he goes up against a Royals team that is swinging the bats pretty well lately. In their last series in Anaheim, the Royals scored 22 runs as they took two of three from the Angels. Kansas City will also have their ace James Shields on the mound today and he probably won't need very much run support. Shields is one of the best in the American League and comes in with a 2.48 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in his first season with Kansas City. He's also great at going deep into games as he's averaging over seven innings per start. That makes it much easier for the Royals bullpen, which has some great arms at the backend. Until Parker shows that he's back to his form from last season, he's going to be on the fade list. With Shields going, you couldn't get a much bigger starting pitching edge for the Royals. Take Kansas City today as our 10-unit Game.
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05-15-13 | Kansas City Royals v. Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take Kansas City Royals/Los Angeles Angels OVER 8.5 (10:05pm ET) We generally don't focus on totals very often, but we have an opportunity today that we can't pass up. Two starting pitchers that I don't have much respect for are squaring off and we should see plenty of runs in this one. Wade Davis has been about as inconsistent as it gets this season, and he really belongs in the bullpen where he excelled last season. He just doesn't seem to have the right mental makeup to stay focused for an entire game, so pitching in short bursts is preferable. He comes into today's matchup with a 5.86 ERA and I really don't think it's going to get much better for him. The Angels' rotation this season has been an absolute disaster this season and now they're forced to use Barry Enright again today. Enright was getting absolutely hammered in Triple-A with a 9.61 was it was a bit of a head scratcher when he was brought up. He was shelled again in his first major league start of the season giving up five runs in 3 1/3 innings. He just doesn't have very good stuff and I'd be surprised if he can last five innings today. The Angels bullpen has also been atrocious this season so it won't get much better when they get into the game. Runs are usually a bit harder to come by in Anaheim, but I don't foresee any issues in getting Over the total in this one.
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05-14-13 | San Francisco Giants v. Toronto Blue Jays -129 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #980 Toronto Blue Jays over San Francisco Giants (7:05pm ET) I don't think very highly of the Toronto Blue Jays at the moment, but they are certainly better than their 15-24 record indicates. I also don't like the way that today's start R.A. Dickey is pitching either, but he is much better than his 5.06 ERA indicates. In order to find value on a game, you have to look past the pure numbers and project ahead. With Dickey and the Jays, I think the betting markets have given up on them after continuously failing to meet expectations. We know this team has talent, so now is the time to jump aboard and take advantage of some great prices. Today's game at home versus the Giants presents such an opportunity. The Giants go with lefty Barry Zito today and that's good news for the Jays. Over the past few years, Zito has been horrendous on away from San Francisco. In fact, in 2013 Zito has a 0.55 ERA at home and a 14.21 ERA on the road. His numbers obviously aren't going to continue to be that extreme, but the point is clear - Zito really struggles away from the pitcher's ballpark that he is accustomed to. The Jays have a very tough lineup to navigate and I'd be surprised if Zito can get through more than five innings today. I like the Jays at home as a short favorite here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-12-13 | Atlanta Braves v. San Francisco Giants +101 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 101 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #960 San Francisco Giants over Atlanta Braves (4:05pm ET) Tim Lincecum wasn't the same pitcher that we were accustomed to seeing last season. He struggled with a 5.18 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and his control was horrid. He showed up big in the postseason however, and many thought we'd see a return to form for the two-time Cy Young award winner. But he had a tough spring and then walked 11 batters in his first two outings in the regular season. But since then Lincecum has been very good. In his last five starts, the right-hander has a 34-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has slowly regained his confidence. He has still yielded some big innings, keeping his ERA higher than usual, but he's definitely on the right track. The opposite can be said of Atlanta Braves starter Kris Medlen. In the second half of 2012, Medlen was the hottest pitcher in all of baseball and the Braves had won 23 straight games in which he started. But in 2013 he's looked very ordinary on the mound. His strikeout rate is down 20% and his walks have nearly doubled from last season. What he did last season was simply not sustainable and his results this year are probably more in line with the skill set he owns. The Giants dominated the last two games against the Braves by a combined 18-3 score and will look to make it three of four in the series. They are 14-7 at home so far this season, which is more wins at home than anyone in baseball. It's hard to believe that they're underdogs in this one, so we'll take Lincecum and the Giants.
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05-11-13 | Philadelphia Phillies -101 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #911 Philadelphia Phillies over Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10pm ET) Despite what the records say, I think this Philadelphia Phillies team is a little bit better than the Arizona Diamondbacks. Their lineups are both very balanced and both teams have a couple of guys in the lineup that can take advantage of mistakes. In the bullpens, I like the Phillies options better as they have a dependable back end guy in Jonathan Papelbon. The D-backs are working with Heath Bell as the closer right now and that's not going to end well. As for the starting pitchers in today's game, the Phillies are better there as well. Cliff Lee is sort of a forgotten man and is still one of the best pitchers in the National League. He's 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.07 WHIP and still has excellent control. Opposing Lee will be right-hander Trevor Cahill. I like what Cahill brings to the mound. He's a smart pitcher that doesn't make many mistakes and is about as consistent as they come. However, he rarely dominates a game and that might be what Arizona needs from him if Lee is on top of his game tonight. This will be a good game to watch, but I think the Phils come out on top in the end.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-07-13 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Tampa Bay Rays -127 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #918 Tampa Bay Rays over Toronto Blue Jays (7:10pm ET) How long does it take before you can call the Toronto Blue Jays a bad baseball team? They have one of the most talented clubs in baseball, but have really scuffled since the season started and are now just 12-21. Most people around the game think the Jays will eventually snap out of it and be competitive, but I'm not so sure. They have been outscored by a whopping 46 runs this season in only 33 games. That's 29th in the majors, ahead of only the pathetic Houston Astros. Even the Marlins have played their opponents closer in overall run differential, and that says a lot. Toronto is struggling in every phase of the game and today they send one of their worst starting pitchers to the mound. Left-hander J.A. Happ doesn't deserve to be in a starting rotation for a team that expects to win. The 30-year old is walking 5.1 batters per nine innings and has a low 29% groundball rate. He's been lucky to manage a 3.98 ERA, but he's heading for some regression soon. In his last outing he walked seven batters in 3 2/3 innings and was lucky to only let two men cross the plate. The Rays are a patient team at the plate and will make Happ work for everything he gets. Don't be surprised if he has another short outing today. Roberto Hernandez pitches for the Rays and he's been really good for his new club in 2013 despite a high ERA. The right-hander is striking out nearly a batter per inning and is keeping the ball on the ground to the tune of a 52% rate. His numbers will improve as he starts to catch some breaks. The Rays offense has finally started clicking and should be able to give him some solid run support today versus Happ. Take Tampa Bay as our 10-unit Game today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-06-13 | Arizona Diamondbacks -106 v. Los Angeles Dodgers | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 Arizona Diamondbacks over Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10pm ET) It hasn't been pretty for the Los Angeles Dodgers so far this season, and this past weekend it got much worse. After a huge spending spree and several big name acquisitions, the Dodgers find themselves just a half game from the cellar in the National League West after getting swept by their rival the San Francisco Giants over the weekend. The offense has been the biggest problem, as they're 14th in the NL in runs scored. And they suffered another blow when Hanley Ramirez went back on the disabled list and Adrian Gonzalez has been nursing a bad neck recently. Today they'll try to halt a four-game losing streak with left-hander Chris Capuano. The 34-year old veteran is coming off the disabled list where he was with a calf injury for a couple of weeks. He made a rehab start, but he still may not be 100%. He'll face a gritty Arizona Diamondbacks team that comes in at 16-15 so far in 2013. Arizona is a deep team with a balanced lineup and should be able to give Capuano some problems. Trevor Cahill pitches for the D-Backs and he's about as reliable as it comes. He will never dominate a game, but he always gives his team a chance to win. With a struggling lineup facing him, he should be able to hold them to just a couple of runs. We'll take Arizona in this one as the Dodgers morale is at a season low.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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05-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays +102 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 8-3 | Win | 102 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #929 Tampa Bay Rays over Colorado Rockies (4:10pm ET) The Tampa Bay Rays and Colorado Rockies play the rubber game of their three-game interleague series this afternoon in Coors Field. When you stack up the numbers between these two clubs, the Rockies look to have the upper hand on the surface. However, the season is young and what's more important is projecting the future and not looking too closely at the past due to a small sample size. This Rockies team has overachieved through the first month of the season. They have seven regulars batting over .300 and have scored 21 runs more than the next best team in the National League. Some of that has surely been aided by Coors Field, but even so they're playing above their normal abilities. Their team OPS is nearly 70 points higher than anyone else in the league and that's just not sustainable for a long season. We've already seen the Rockies start to stumble a bit lately. After a red hot 13-4 start, the Rockies are just 5-8 since and they haven't scored more than four runs in any of their losses. On the mound today for the Rockies will be Jhoulys Chacin. This will be his first start off the disabled list, which is always a tough situation the first time out. He'll go up against Alex Cobb of the Rays. Cobb is putting together a really nice season with a 2.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in his five starts. He keeps the ball down, which will be big in Coors Field where the ball flies over the fence with ease at times. When you bet on the Rays, you always know that you're going to get a max effort and a team that plays the game the right way. They are always excellent on defense and they have the best manager in the game in Joe Maddon. Those intangibles are definitely worth something, and it's not always in the line. The line on this game should be closer to -140 for the Rays than even according to our model, so we are on Tampa for our 10-unit MLB Game of the Year!
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05-04-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -113 v. Milwaukee Brewers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #953 St. Louis Cardinals over Milwaukee Brewers (4:05pm ET) One of the National League's hottest starting pitcher takes the mound today for the St. Louis Cardinals. Adam Wainwright has been nothing short of amazing in the beginning of the 2013 campaign. He's 4-2 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in six starts on the season. He's also only walked three batters in 44 1/3 innings of work, against 43 strikeouts. In addition, Wainwright has fared well against the hitters he'll see in today's Brewers lineup. The same can't be said for Milwaukee's starter Yovani Gallardo. No team has dominated him like the Cardinals have in his career. Earlier this season he yielded six runs in 5 1/3 innings in a loss at St. Louis. It hasn't been a good season for Gallardo overall as he's been up and down with a 4.25 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. His strikeout rate is down from 9.0 batters per nine innings to only 5.0. And to top it all off, Gallardo was arrested for DUI a couple of weeks ago. These teams are very similar apart from the starting rotations. They both top notch offenses and bullpens that have been shaky in 2013. We like the Cardinals today for the huge edge in the starting pitchers.
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05-02-13 | BOS RED SOX -125 v. Toronto Blue Jays | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 Boston Red Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Two teams heading in opposite directions square off today in Toronto. The Blue Jays are 10-18 and fading fast after big expectations were placed on them to begin the season. Nearly everyone is their entire lineup is struggling at the same time, and that's just the way it goes sometimes. Hitting can be infectious and it goes both ways. For the Red Sox, it's going the right way as they are one of the hottest hitting teams in the league right now. They come in 2nd in the American League in runs scored and their best hitter David Ortiz is on a rampage since returning from the disabled list. Big Papi is hitting .487 with three home runs and 15 RBIs in just 10 games since his return. The Red Sox will also send a red hot pitcher to the mound in Ryan Dempster. The veteran right-hander has a 3.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in his five starts. More impressive is his strikeout rate of 12.9 batters per nine innings, which is well above his career mark. With the way the Jays are struggling right now, it's hard to envision them scraping together too many runs against him. J.A. Happ will be tasked with the job of holding Boston at bay, and that won't be easy for the southpaw. He's a fringe starter who doesn't have great stuff and has had trouble keeping a spot in the rotation throughout his career. All signs point to a Red Sox victory here today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-30-13 | Los Angeles Angels +105 v. Oakland A's | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 Los Angeles Angels over Oakland A's (10:05pm ET) After a marathon game last night that went 19 innings, the Angels and A's are back at it again tonight in Oakland. The bullpens were taxed to the maximum in yesterday's game, so the starting pitchers are extremely important today. And when you look at it from that angle, the Angels have a big advantage today. Jarrod Parker of the A's hasn't been himself in 2013. At 0-4 with an 8.10 ERA and 2.14 WHIP, the young right-hander is in danger of losing his job in the rotation. It was just a year ago that Parker was amazing as a rookie. My guess is that he has some kind of injury going on, but it could be all mental at this point as well. Whatever the case, he's really struggling and not the kind of guy you want to count on to get you six or seven innings when you really need it. The Angels' Garrett Richards has put together a nice season so far early on. He started out in the bullpen but was moved to the rotation because of injuries. He comes in with a 3.65 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings and has really improved his control this season. He's walking about 50% less batters than in 2012 and also inducing about 10% more groundballs. With that kind of improvement, he'll likely be holding onto a spot in the rotation for quite a while. Los Angeles is going to ask him to pitch deep into the game today and I think he will be up to the task. Take the Angels today.
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04-28-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -140 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (4:05pm ET) The Oakland A's and Baltimore Orioles were the two biggest surprises in baseball last year. This year they're not sneaking up on anyone, but they both have still managed to stay above .500. But the A's have another surprise up their sleeves for 2013 and it's been Bartolo Colon so far. The 39-year old right-hander is pitching like a Cy Young candidate at 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's also walked only one batter in 26 innings of work thus far! With control that good in pitcher's ballpark in Oakland, Colon can continue to have great success. His counterpart Miguel Gonzalez has put up good numbers this season and last season, but his peripherals haven't been as good as his ERA. He's due for some regression and I wouldn't be surprised if a strong hitting Oakland lineup jumps all over him. The A's lead the entire MLB in runs scored and that is really impressive considering where they play their home games. They've been struggling a bit lately, but that allows us to get a lower price here today. Take the A's.
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04-27-13 | Chicago Cubs -128 v. Miami Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #907 Chicago Cubs over Miami Marlins (7:10pm ET) The Chicago Cubs go for a third straight win in Miami as they take on the Marlins on Saturday night. And when the Cubs are beating up on you, you know your team is bad. Things have gotten pretty ugly for the Marlins organization in recent days. Owner Jeffrey Loria ruffled some feathers in the clubhouse when he dictated the pitching rotation for a doubleheader in Minnesota earlier in the week. The players didn't like it and it may have gotten under the skin of a team that was already struggling to begin with. The Cubs have an edge in the pitching matchup today as southpaw Travis Wood takes on youngster Alex Sanabia. The Marlins really struggle with lefties and Wood is pitching pretty well right now. Sanabia is only 24-years old and has a lot to learn at the big league level. I question if he's ready to pitch in the majors and I doubt if he'd be up here if he was on any other team. The Cubs should take advantage as they have a few good hitters in their lineup that have been swinging the bat well. Take the Cubs in this spot today.
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04-21-13 | Minnesota: S Diamond v. Chicago (A): G Floyd -138 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -138 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #924 Chicago White Sox over Minnesota Twins (2:10pm ET) The Chicago White Sox host the Minnesota Twins in the second game of a rain-shortened two-game set today. Both teams have had trouble scoring runs this season as the White Sox are 12th in runs and the Twins 15th in the American League. These teams have been led more by their pitching in 2013, which is a bit surprising given the rosters. Today's starters Gavin Floyd and Scott Diamond are both reliable middle of the rotation guys that give you good innings. I like Floyd better though as he's been pretty consistent in getting AL hitters out over the last few seasons. This is only Diamond's second full season and although he put up some good numbers as a rookie, it's always tougher to face the league for the second time around so he may be in store for a sophomore slump. The main reason I like the White Sox today though is their superb bullpen. They are tops in the league with a 1.74 ERA this season and have several great options to turn to in the late innings. Minnesota has put up good numbers in the pen too, but their guys aren't quite as proven and I'd be surprised if they're still this good at season's end. Chicago is the better ballclub and should grind out a victory today at home versus the Twins.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-19-13 | Atlanta Braves -121 v. Pittsburgh Pirates | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Atlanta Braves over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm ET) The Atlanta Braves are the hottest team in baseball with a record of 13-2 on the season. They've mashed the ball offensively, leading the league with 29 home runs with Justin Upton amassing nine of them. Last night they tattooed opposing Pirate pitchers for four dingers. They definitely take their cuts at the plate so you'll probably see lots of hot offensive stretches with this team throughout the season. When they're making contact, they will bludgeon people. When they don't, they will struggle to score runs. I generally like staying away from team's that everyone knows is playing well, but I think they have a chance to do some serious damage to today's starter for the Pittsburgh Pirates Wandy Rodriguez. The left-hander has been struggling with a hamstring injury and skipped his last turn in the rotation. He wasn't very effective in his two starts before that so there's no telling how good Wandy will be on the mound today and how many innings he can give them. For the Braves it will be the dependable Tim Hudson. The 37-year old is no longer dominant but he keeps this team in the game nearly every time out. With the way the Braves are swinging the bats, he should have no problem picking up a win today. Go Braves!
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04-18-13 | St. Louis Cardinals -110 v. Philadelphia Phillies | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #955 St. Louis Cardinals over Philadelphia Phillies (7:05pm ET) We have what looks like it could be a great pitcher's duel between the St. Louis Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies. Based on the names alone, Adam Wainwright versus Cole Hamels certainly feels like a prime time matchup. But a closer look reveals that it could be a big mismatch. Adam Wainwright has been spectacular in his three starts in 2013 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.00 WHIP to go along with a terrific 24-0 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It doesn't get much better than that, but the same can't be said for Hamels. The left-hander hasn't won a game in his three starts with a 7.56 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. His control has been awful as Hamels is walking twice as many batters as his normal rate. There hasn't been any talk about mechanical issues or an injury, but something clearly isn't right with Hamels right now. It could be that he's not throwing to him normal catcher Carlos Ruiz, who is still suspended from last year. With the way Wainwright is throwing, the Phillies aren't going to be able to get too many runs today - especially since they've been swinging the bats poorly. That puts even more pressure on a struggling Hamels and I think this one could get ugly as a result. Take the Cardinals today at a very small price.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-15-13 | Chicago (A): G Floyd +125 v. Toronto: M Buehrle | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #913 Chicago White Sox over Toronto Blue Jays (7:05pm ET) Mark Buehrle goes up against his former team as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Chicago White Sox tonight. Buehrle has had a really tough time in his first couple of starts with the Jays, getting torched in both of his outings against the Indians and Tigers. The White Sox also have a lineup that does well against left-handers, which will make it even tougher on the veteran. The Jays are in some trouble right now and are feeling the pressure at 5-7 to begin the season. Expectations were really high for this club after all of the acquisitions they made in the offseason. But they've had some tough breaks losing Brett Lawrie to injury in the spring and now Jose Reyes, who could miss as much as three months. Those are two key pieces to this Toronto lineup and they don't have the depth to compensate for it. The White Sox send out one of the more dependable starters in the league in Gavin Floyd. He hasn't had a great start to the 2013 campaign, but his 5.56 ERA is deceiving because he's actually had a really nice K/BB ratio and is inducing more groundballs than ever. That tells me that he's pitching well and just not catching that many breaks. He's the better starting pitcher today and I like the White Sox to win this one behind him.
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04-10-13 | Baltimore Orioles v. Boston Red Sox -135 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #972 Boston Red Sox over Baltimore Orioles (7:10pm ET) We've been riding the Boston Red Sox pretty hard this season and are 3-for-3 so far. I still think that the betting markets are underrating just how much this team has improved over last year when they won only 69 games. There bullpen is definitely better after making some key additions in the offseason, and adding Ryan Dempster in the starting rotation is a plus as well. Dempster is a gamer who always puts up better numbers than what his stuff looks like in person. Anyone who can win more games than he loses pitching for the Cubs definitely has my respect. Today he'll go up against the Jake Arrieta and the Baltimore Orioles. Arrieta is a young up-and-coming pitcher that has good stuff, but he still has a lot to learn at the big league level. In 24 games last season he posted a 6.20 ERA and had a propensity for giving up the long ball. He certainly has better stuff than his ERA indicates, but he's still a below average pitcher at the moment and is a guy that a balanced Red Sox lineup should take advantage of. I think the Orioles are also getting a little too much credit as a team based on what they did last year. They're going to struggle to win anywhere near the 93 games they won in 2012, and I'm projecting them for the basement in the AL East. Take the Red Sox at home at a good price that you won't see for long.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-09-13 | New York (A): A Pettitte -125 v. Cleveland: C Carrasco | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Cleveland Indians (7:05pm ET) The New York Yankees are a beleaguered squad right now with half of their everyday lineup on the disabled list and very few good options on the bench to plug in. However, if there's a team out there that can face the pressure of having to perform without all of their weapons, it's the Yankees. This is where playing in New York actually works to your advantage. No one is expecting much from this team right now and they have the chance to prove everyone wrong. They have a guy on the mound that knows something about winning under desperate circumstances and that's Andy Pettitte. The 40-year old left-hander can still pitch as he posted some of his best numbers in half a season last year. He was sharp in his 2013 debut and he still has good enough stuff to win close to 20 games if he stays healthy. He'll get a Cleveland Indians lineup full of left-handed bats, which should make it even easier on him in this one. I like what the Indians did in the offseason, but they are going to have a tough time of it today. Their starter Carlos Carrasco is making his first start in two seasons after he had Tommy John surgery. He looked pretty good in the spring but you can expect plenty of nerves today as he hasn't pitched since September 2011. The Yankees offense isn't spectacular with all of the injuries, but they showed that they can still mash scoring 11 runs against Cleveland yesterday. I like the Yankees to beat up on the Tribe again today.
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04-06-13 | San Diego Padres +132 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #961 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm ET) The Colorado Rockies have an awful starting rotation this season. But no matter how bad it gets, resurrecting Jon Garland from the dead just doesn't seem like a wise decision. Garland has only made nine starts since the end of the 2010 season as he's battled injuries and ineffectiveness. I give him credit for trying to make a comeback and persevering, but he picked the wrong place to make it happen. Garland is a fly ball pitcher that pitches to contact. Those are two qualities that don't translate well in Coors Field - the site of his 2013 debut. It could get really ugly for the veteran, so the Colorado bullpen better be ready. Pitching for San Diego is former A's starter Tyson Ross. He had a very tough year in 2012 with Oakland, but a lot of that to do with an abnormally high BABIP and strand rate. He's a groundball pitcher and that should suit him well today. We should see plenty of runs in today's contest, but I like the Padres to score more of them. Take San Diego in this spot.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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04-04-13 | Detroit Tigers -135 v. Minnesota Twins | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -135 | 3 h 31 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #959 Detroit Tigers over Minnesota Twins (1:10pm ET) There weren't many starting pitchers who threw better than Rick Porcello did during Spring Training. The 24-year old righty went 4-1 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, in addition to posting 21 strikeouts and no walks. That's pretty impressive and this could be the year that Porcello finally breaks through and realizes his potential. He was one of Detroit's most highly touted prospects when he broke into the big leagues, and this will be his fifth season. He'll go up against a weak-hitting Minnesota Twins lineup today. Last year the Twins were 10th in the American League in runs scored - and that was with Denard Span and Ben Revere, who have both departed. I like the fact that Porcello gets an easier lineup to deal with in his 2013 debut, as it could be a huge confidence builder for him. Even if Porcello runs into some trouble, he is backed by one of the best offenses in all of baseball. Returning from injury is Victor Martinez, who didn't play a single inning last season for the Tigers. He's an offensive machine and slots in right behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Detroit also added outfielder Torii Hunter, who had one of his best seasons last year. New addition Mike Pelfrey will be tasked with trying to slow down the Tigers lineup. The right-hander is returning from reconstructive elbow surgery last year, so there's no telling if his arm strength is going to be up to snuff or not. Even if it is, Pelfrey comes over from the National League where posted a career 4.36 ERA in eight seasons with the Mets. Coming to the American League won't be any easier, and he's going to get a nice welcome by the Tigers today. Take Detroit in what has the makings of a blowout.
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04-03-13 | Philadelphia Phillies v. Atlanta Braves -132 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Atlanta Braves over Philadelphia Phillies (7:10pm ET) We keep a list of pitchers to fade based on the Spring Training results, and Roy Halladay tops the list for 2013. The 35-year old right-hander posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in six spring games against major leaguers. He also walked nine batters in 16.3 innings of work and his velocity was down 4-5 mph. There was absolutely nothing positive about Halladay's spring and it would be difficult to imagine that he can just flip the switch for the regular season. And to add even more of a challenge for Roy, he'll go up against his nemesis the Atlanta Braves today. Over the last three seasons, Halladay is only 3-3 with a 4.84 ERA against the Braves - his second worst mark in the National League in that time frame.
The Braves will counter with left-hander Paul Maholm today. The 30-year old came over from the Cubs last season in a trade and fit in very well with Atlanta. Maholm put up sensational numbers in the spring going 4-1 with a 1.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in seven starts. Many pitchers have come to the Braves from other teams and turned into studs, and I think Maholm can do the same. The Phillies don't hit southpaws very well, and there's a chance that Ryan Howard may not be in the lineup with a lefty taking the hill. If Maholm can get this game into the 7th inning, the Braves should have no problem finishing the game off with the best bullpen in the league. Craig Kimbrel is as close to automatic as you can get, and he has several quality setup men in front of him. This price seems much to low given Halladay's struggles, so we'll take Atlanta at home today as our 10 unit game. |
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10-18-12 | New York Yankees -114 v. Detroit Tigers | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -114 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #917 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (8:05pm EST) A day off. Sometimes that's all a team needs to regroup and clear their minds. Down 3-0 in the series, the New York Yankees could use definitely use any kind of break to thwart the momentum of the Detroit Tigers. Yesterday's rain out may have provided that as the teams showed up to the park to find out that the game was postponed until Thursday. If you're the Yankees, you have the guy you want on the mound in CC Sabathia. He's been the horse for this team for years and has been pitching well of late. Over his last five starts (including two in the postseason), Sabathia is 4-0 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. His strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is 44-7. It certainly doesn't get much better than that. He'll also go up against a Tigers team that really struggles against left-handed pitching, making Sabathia even more comfortable on the mound.
On the other side will be right-hander Max Scherzer for the Tigers. The 28-year old enjoyed his best season to date but it didn't end the way that he wanted. Scherzer suffered from weakness in his pitching shoulder down the stretch and also injured his ankle during a postgame celebration. He wasn't the same after he came back. His velocity was down several miles per hour on his fastball and he couldn't go deep into the game. The Tigers are reporting that he is fine now, but I'd be surprised if he can go more than six innings today. That means we'll get a heavy dose of a Tigers bullpen that hasn't exactly been reliable this postseason. There's no longer very much pressure on the Yankees in this series as almost everyone has penciled the Tigers into the World Series. They should play better as a result and get a win this afternoon. Take the Yankees at a small price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-12-12 | St. Louis Cardinals +126 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 9-7 | Win | 126 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #941 St. Louis Cardinals over Washington Nationals (8:35pm EST) It's Game 5 of the National League Division Series between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals tonight in the nation's capital. Each team has won two games in this series, but in very different ways. In the two games that the Cardinals won, they absolutely dominated by a combined score of 20-4 behind their potent lineup. The Nationals won each of their games by the slimmest of margins - one run. And those wins included a late rally in the 8th inning to win one game and a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth in another. Those were both coin flip games that the Nats came out on top. Needless to say, they're lucky to still be alive in this series.
Adam Wainwright will go up against Gio Gonzalez in tonight's showdown. From a pure numbers standpoint, Gio had a little bit better year than Wainwright did in 2012. However, Wainwright was much better in the second half of the season as he was slow to recover from Tommy John surgery early on. Gonzalez scuffled a bit down the stretch and was much better in April and May. Wainwright has also pitched in many more big games that Gio has, and experience like that is invaluable in pressure situations like this one. The Cardinals as a team have also been through this before (most notably last season) and that should be an advantage over a Nationals team that hasn't even appeared in the playoffs before. There aren't really many reasons to like Washington in this game. The Cardinals are swinging the bats better in this series, have the starting pitcher in better current form, and have more playoff experience as a team. It's hard to believe St. Louis is an underdog in this one, as I have them as a slight favorite. We'll gladly take the price on St. Louis here to advance. |
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10-08-12 | Washington Nationals v. St. Louis Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-12 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take St. Louis Cardinals/Washington Nationals UNDER (4:37pm EST) Game 2 of the National League Division Series gets underway as the St. Louis Cardinals host the Washington Nationals. The first game of the series was a pitcher's duel with a 3-2 final score and there are several reasons to believe that today's game will be very similar. For starters, this game is being played in the afternoon where the shadows will impact the batter's eye at the plate. We saw many at bats in Saturday's game where pitchers had a huge advantage throwing in the sun while the hitters were in the shade trying to pick up the ball. Expect to see the same phenomenon today. Not that today's starting pitchers really needed much of an edge though. Jordan Zimmermann has quietly emerged as one of the best starters in the National League, but he doesn't get much attention with Stephen Strasburg as the ace of the team. Zimmermann comes in at 12-8 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.17 WHIP on the season. He was pretty consistent all year and turned it up a notch down the stretch going 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his last five outings. Opposing the Nationals will be left-hander Jaime Garcia. The 26-year old had some injury issues earlier in the season but has come back better than ever. His last four starts were dominating as he went 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He's definitely pitching his best baseball of the season right now. Neither team has very deep bullpens, but in the playoffs you only need a couple of guys to rely on and both teams have that. I look for a final score in the same neighborhood as the last game, so we'll play on the Under here today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-03-12 | Texas Rangers v. Oakland A's -106 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #968 Oakland A's over Texas Rangers (3:35pm EST) The regular season is finally coming to end, but there is still meaningful baseball today in Oakland. The American League West division is up for grabs as the Texas Rangers and Oakland A's come into today's matchup with identical 93-68 records. What a season it has been for the A's. Nobody expected them to contend with a payroll less than half of the Rangers and one-third of the Angels, but they're here now. The key to the success of the A's has been the development of their young pitching, and today's starter A.J. Griffin is one of those guys. The rookie right-hander has only played half of the season, but has made a huge impact filling in for injured starters. He comes in at 7-1 with a 2.71 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the season and no start is bigger than the one he is making today. Today's game will decide who the division winner is and who the wild card is.
Ryan Dempster gets the ball for the Rangers this afternoon. He was acquired from the Cubs near the trade deadline to bolster the team's starting rotation. Since the acquisition, Dempster has had a bit of trouble adjusting to life in the American League. His ERA in the AL is only 4.64 ERA to go along with a 1.39 WHIP. The Rangers will need to give him plenty of run support today, but I'm not confident that they are going to be able to do that. The Rangers offense gets a bit overrated playing in Arlington, and they are only 6th in the AL in runs scored on the road while Oakland is actually 3rd. As a result, the stadiums these teams play in are actually masking the fact that the A's have a better offense than the Rangers. If you're measuring momentum at this point, the A's are off the charts right now and Texas is slumping. Oakland is 50-25 since the All-Star break for an amazing .667 winning percentage. The Rangers, meanwhile, have been sputtering down the stretch going 16-16 in their last 32 contests. Oakland is simply the better team right now, they have the better starting pitcher on the mound today and they're at home. Why this line isn't at least -130 is beyond me. Take Oakland this afternoon as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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10-02-12 | Los Angeles Angels v. Seattle Mariners +110 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Seattle Mariners over Los Angeles Angels (10:10pm EST) It's official - the Los Angeles Angels have been eliminated from playoff contention. After Oakland's victory last night over Texas, the Angels were dealt with the reality that all of their big spending in the offseason hasn't paid off yet. There was a lot of pressure on this team to win, but that's no excuse for not making the postseason. I don't expect the team's heart to be in today's game against Seattle given the circumstances. They're likely to sleep walk through these last two regular season games as they look ahead to the offseason. Today's starting pitcher for the Halos is Dan Haren. It's been a difficult season for the 32-year old. He's fought off injury issues for the first time in his career and comes in at 12-12 with a 4.32 ERA and 1.29 WHIP - his worst numbers in eight years. His mound opponent is right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma. The rookie has flown under the radar this season posting some really good numbers. He's 8-5 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.28 WHIP on the season and has gotten better in each start. In his last eight starts, Iwakuma is 5-2 with a 2.06 ERA. The M's definitely have the better starting pitcher going today and are at home. Throw in the fact that the Angels will be a bit deflated and that adds up to a nice underdog play on Seattle today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-26-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers v. San Diego Padres -120 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 San Diego Padres over Los Angeles Dodgers (6:35pm EST) We've been riding the Padres bandwagon for quite some time now and it's paid off. Since the All-Star break, San Diego is 40-27 and has done a good job of playing spoiler down the stretch. Clayton Richard gets the ball for the Pads today and he loves pitching in Petco Park. On the road, Richard carries a hefty 4.64 ERA but it goes all the way down to 2.75 pitching in his home park. The Dodgers struggle against southpaws, so he'll have another advantage against their lineup today. Los Angeles sends right-hander Aaron Harang to the hill in this one. It hasn't been pretty for the 34-year old of late. In his last five starts, Harang hasn't complete six full innings in any of them and his ERA is 4.62 during that span. Even more discouraging, his strikeout-to-walk ratio in those five starts is only 13-12. He's either wearing down from a long season or battling a hidden injury. In any event, he's definitely someone you want to be fading at this point. The Dodgers are actually 0-7 in his last seven starts against teams with losing records. San Diego has been a juggernaut at home lately at 24-7 in their last 31 games in Petco. The Padres are just a better team right now and I have no problem laying this short price against a pitcher who can't locate his pitches right now.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-20-12 | San Diego Padres +106 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-5 | Win | 106 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 San Diego Padres over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) Not many people know it, but the San Diego Padres are one of the best teams in the league in the second half of the season. Since the All-Star break, the Pads are a cool 37-25 and have climbed back to respectability. They suffered a lot of injuries in the early part of the season and were getting some younger players up to speed. Now they have an above average squad and the betting markets are still pegging this as a bad team. Left-hander Clayton Richard gets the ball this afternoon for San Diego. He isn't going to wow anyone with his stuff, but he generally keeps his team in the ball game and pitches deep into the game. That's all they should need today going up against Tyler Skaggs of the Diamondbacks. Skaggs is a rookie who was given a shot in the rotation a few weeks ago. In his five starts, all he has proved is that he's not quite ready for the big leagues yet and needs more grooming at the lower levels. He carries a 5.55 ERA and hasn't faced any great offenses so far in his outings. The long ball has been a problem for Skaggs as he's given one up in each of his starts. His control is also spotty and that's expected from a 21-year old rookie. The Padres are playing much better baseball right now and I think they'll get to Skaggs early and often today. Take San Diego here.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-18-12 | Oakland A's v. Detroit Tigers -144 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #922 Detroit Tigers over Oakland A's (7:05pm EST) Another big series starts tonight when the Detroit Tigers host the Oakland A's in Comerica. While both teams are in the playoff race, this series is much bigger for the Tigers as they're currently on the outside looking in while the A's are holding the top wild card spot. And Detroit certainly has the right guy on the mound tonight to make up some ground. Max Scherzer is the hottest pitcher in all baseball at the moment. Over his last seven starts, the right-hander is 6-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He's shown excellent command of the strike zone and his strikeout-to-walk ratio over that span is a stellar 60-9. There's no question that Scherzer is reaching a new level. The good news is that the betting marketplace hasn't quite figured out yet and the line on this game is relatively cheap.
Oakland counters with starting pitcher A.J. Griffin tonight. He's been throwing the ball really well lately as well, but not in the same stratosphere as Scherzer. The rookie right-hander has made only 11 starts this season, so he still has a lot to prove despite his 6-0 mark with a 1.94 ERA. It's always tough for a rookie pitcher to maintain success, as opposing hitters start to take notice and adjust accordingly. Against a Tigers team that crushes right-handed pitching, I'll expect Griffin to allow a few runs. That should be more than enough for Scherzer to work with. The Tigers have been one of the best home teams in baseball over the last few years, and are a very strong 43-28 in 2012. I like the Tigers in this one. |
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09-15-12 | Washington Nationals +110 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
The Washington Nationals and Atlanta Braves both appear to be safely locked into the playoffs. Barring some kind of miracle, the Nats will be taking home the division crown and the Braves the top wild card spot. But these teams are both still competing hard and want to finish the season on a high note after scuffling a bit of late. Right-hander Edwin Jackson gets the start for Washington today. He's had an up and down year at 9-10 with a 3.85 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. As far as stuff goes, he has the goods. It's just a matter of harnessing it all and pitching a smart game. On the other side is Tommy Hanson of the Braves. Hanson has had a very frustrating season and he may never be the same. Coming up through the Atlanta organization and in his first couple of seasons with the big league club, all indications were that he would be an ace. His numbers were phenomenal and it didn't appear that he had any major weaknesses. That however, was all before injuries plagued him last season. He hasn't fully recovered and his numbers are now below average with a 4.35 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 2012. He is now in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation and likely won't be pitching any meaningful baseball in October. That's a far cry from where this guy was heading before the season started. The betting markets seem to think Hanson will get things figured out as they have installed him as a solid favorite against the best team in the National League. I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Washington has the best run differential in all of baseball and still plays as an undervalued team in my eyes. Take the Nats at a good price here.
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09-14-12 | Baltimore Orioles v. Oakland A's -144 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #957 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (10:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles come into Oakland as one of the hottest teams in baseball. They're 26-11 in their last 37 games and have clawed their way into a first-place tie with the Yankees in the American League East. Everyone knows the story by now, but it's hard not to appreciate the scrappiness of this team. However, they head into tonight's game off of two very dramatic wins in Baltimore against the Rays and then had to fly across country to Oakland after a 13-inning game yesterday. Needless to say, they will be emotionally and physically drained to start another important series. The pitching matchup today heavily favors the A's. Tom Milone pitches for Oakland and he has been a beast at home in 2012, sporting one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball. On the road Milone owns a 5.13 ERA, while he maintains a current 2.77 ERA at O.co Coliseum. The park plays to his strengths as a fly ball pitcher and he's quickly learned how to take advantage. Baltimore has also never seen Milone before, so it's going to be tough for them to get a good read on him until they go through the lineup a couple of times.
On the other side is the newly-acquired Joe Saunders for the Orioles. The southpaw will be making his fourth start with the team, and he's been a bit shaky so far. He has two wins, but his ERA in his three starts is 4.24 and his all-important strikeout-to-walk ratio is only 8-6 in those outings. Pitchers who have been traded from the National League to the American League in 2012 have not fared well (see Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Ryan Dempster). There's no reason to believe the mediocre Saunders is going to be any different, so I'll call for the A's to knock him around pretty good today and get the win against an Orioles team that has to be a bit exhausted. Oakland is the play. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-07-12 | Detroit: M Scherzer -108 v. LA Anaheim: E Santana | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #977 Detroit Tigers over Los Angeles Angels (10:05pm EST) The Detroit Tigers head to Anaheim to take on the Los Angeles Angels in a huge series for both teams. The Tigers are just one game out of first in the American League Central and 3.5 games out in the wild card race. The Angels, meanwhile, sit 8.5 games out of first and just three away from the wild card. So this series could go a long way in deciding the wild card. For Detroit, they send their hottest pitcher to the bump today in Max Scherzer. In fact, no one in baseball is throwing better than Scherzer at the moment. In his last five starts, the right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.03 ERA and 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 44-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Confidence has long been an issue for Scherzer and now that he has it, he's one of the most dominating pitchers in the league. Ervin Santana throws for the Halos today, and it's been quite a rocky ride for him in 2012. He enters today's game at 8-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He has shown flashes of brilliance, but Santana has always been an inconsistent pitcher that you can't count on. In 10 of his 26 starts this season, he has yielded five runs or more. The only reason that he's still in the starting rotation is due to lack of options for the Angels with all of the injuries they have suffered.
The Tigers are 29-21 since the All-Star break and are finally clicking on all cylinders after a mediocre start to the season. With the hottest pitcher in baseball on the mound and one of the hottest teams, it's hard to believe that the price on this game is so low against a struggling pitcher. Take Detroit here as our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-03-12 | LA Anaheim: C Wilson v. Oakland: T Milone -101 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -101 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #976 Oakland A's over Los Angeles Angels (4:05pm EST) If this sounds like a broken record, it's not -the Oakland A's are the hottest team in baseball, again! Winners of nine straight games and 15 of their last 17, the A's have catapulted themselves into the top wild card spot and are now only three games behind the Texas Rangers in the American League West. They're not exactly playing the same brand of Moneyball that they have in the past, but their results have been great. Much of the credit has to be given to pitching coach Curt Young who has molded this young pitching staff into one of the best in the American League. They are currently 2nd in the league with a team ERA of 3.41. They've had four different rookies make significant contributions in the starting rotation, and today we'll get to see one of them. Tom Milone may be the best of the bunch. At 11-9 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, this 25-year old knows how to pitch. He was acquired from the Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez trade and has been the rock of the rotation since day one. He also excels at home, owning one of the biggest home/road splits in baseball with a 2.34 ERA in O.co Coliseum and a 5.30 ERA on the road. The spacious ballpark in Oakland plays to his strengths as Milone is a fly ball pitcher who can locate his pitches very well. He'll have a tough task going up against a dangerous Angels lineup, but he's already beaten them twice this year and I like his chances to do it against a struggling C.J. Wilson. Take the winners of nine straight to extend their streak today.
Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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09-03-12 | Arizona: P Corbin +100 v. San Francisco: B Zito | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Arizona Diamondbacks over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks head to San Francisco to take on the Giants for this Labor Day afternoon tilt. Two left-handers take the mound, one of which is an up and coming youngster and the other who is a declining veteran. Arizona's Patrick Corbin is the youngster and he's quietly putting together a solid rookie season at 5-6 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He's gotten better as the season has progressed and is close to securing a spot in the rotation for 2013 if he can keep this up. Veteran Barry Zito is 10-8 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His skills are clearly declining and he's been very inconsistent for the entire season. You never know if you're going to get the bad Zito or the mediocre Zito when he takes the ball. The good news for Arizona is that there is no longer a good Zito anymore. Arizona hasn't been playing very good baseball lately, but I like their chances today with the matchup on the mound. Take the D-backs at a very reasonable price.
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09-01-12 | San Diego Padres +109 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 San Diego Padres over Colorado Rockies (8:10pm EST) The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres in a game with no playoff implications or very much interest from fans. Both of these teams have long been cast away and are essentially just playing for the future at this point. However, one team hasn't given up and is playing a lot better than most teams that are still contention and that's the San Diego Padres. Over the last six weeks, San Diego is 28-17 and has won 10 of their last 11. It's hard to pinpoint the strengths of the Padres team, as they get contributions from every player and aren't really great at anything. On the other hand, the Rockies can't wait for the 2012 season to end. They've endured injuries to several key players throughout the season, including shortstop Troy Tulowitzki who is still out. They've also performed very poorly in front of the home fans at only 25-36 in Coors Field, where they usually have a decent edge.
Today's starter for the Pads is Edinson Volquez. He's been pretty erratic in his first season in a San Diego uniform, but pitching in Coors Field should play to his strengths. He's a groundball pitcher who can get a strikeout when he needs it and that's important in a ballpark where balls fly over the fence often. Volquez is also coming off of back-to-back strong performances in his last two outings where he went 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA and 1.02 WHIP against the Diamondbacks and Pirates. His opponent on the mound will be right-hander Jhoulys Chacin. The 24-year old fought back from a pectoral injury which caused him to miss about half of the season. He's only made seven starts in 2012 and they haven't been particularly good. Chacin comes in at 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. And unlike his counterpart, he is a fly ball pitcher - bad news in this park. The Padres enjoy the underdog role and are 10-1 in their last 11 games as a dog. They're a small underdog here again today, so I like them to keep the streak alive with another victory. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-29-12 | Cincinnati Reds -120 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #903 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40pm EST) The Arizona Diamondbacks aren't quite dead yet, but they're close. At 64-66 and 7.5 games behind in the wild card hunt, the chances are slim that the team can find a way to squeeze into the playoffs. Arizona might be mailing it in as they've dropped five straight and 15 of 24 games while not looking very focused. Rookie Patrick Corbin goes today for Arizona. The southpaw is 5-5 with a 3.91 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 15 games in 2012. Those aren't bad numbers but he's struggled in his last couple of outings with a 6.54 ERA against the hapless offenses of the Padres and Astros. Rookies generally start to wear down towards the end of the season, so this isn't a surprise. The Reds offense is much better especially when they go up against left-handers. They are 14-3 in their last 17 starts versus lefties, so Corbin may be in for a rough day.
While the Diamondbacks have been struggling, the Reds have been working on trying to wrap up the National League Central title. Even without their star slugger Joey Votto, the Reds have gone 35-14 in their last 49 games for an amazing .714 winning percentage. Pitching has been the name of the game for Cincinnati as they've had steady starting pitching combined with a lights out bullpen led by flamethrower Aroldis Chapman. Mat Latos gets the ball today and he's been solid after a slow April. The right-hander is 10-4 with a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. The Reds are 13-5 in Latos' last 18 starts overall. The attitude on these two teams is very different right now and I think Cincinnati should be a much bigger favorite in this one. Take the Reds to complete the sweep today. |
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08-28-12 | Cincinnati Reds -108 v. Arizona Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #963 Cincinnati Reds over Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40pm EST) There are a handful of pitchers in each league that don't get the respect that they deserve for one reason or another, and Johnny Cueto is definitely on that list. At 16-6 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, Cueto should be getting some serious Cy Young consideration but his name is rarely brought up when the so-called experts talk about candidates. This is on the heels of a season in which he had a 2.31 ERA, so there's nothing flukish about the numbers for this right-hander. He's remarkably consistent and has only given up more than three earned runs in four of his 26 starts this season - and even those starts weren't that bad as he was able to pick up the win in two of them. Cueto is only 26 years old and entering the prime of his career, so it's scary to think about the damage he could do as he continues to learn how to pitch.
The Arizona Diamondbacks have been scuffling a bit of late after climbing their way back into the National League West race just a couple of weeks ago. They've dropped four straight and are just 9-14 in their last 23 games overall. They'll try to weather the storm with left-hander Wade Miley tonight. The rookie is 14-8 with a 2.80 ERA on the season, but he's at 151 innings pitched and that's a lot more than he's thrown at this point in the season at any level. That may be an issue as we head down the stretch and I wouldn't be surprised to see some drop off in his numbers. Today will be a tough challenge against a Reds lineup that feasts on southpaws, with the best left-handed splits in the major leagues as a team. With two very good pitchers throwing today, this game very well could be decided in the bullpen and that would be a huge advantage for the Reds. They have arguably the best closer in the game and very capable 7th and 8th inning arms. The Reds are 24-9 in Cueto's last 33 starts and the Diamondbacks have lost five of six games against right-handed starters. Take the Reds today at a great price. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-27-12 | Chicago (A): F Liriano v. Baltimore: W Chen -114 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #914 Baltimore Orioles over Chicago White Sox (7:05pm EST) We're heading down the stretch in the MLB season and the Baltimore Orioles are still hanging around. They are tied for the second wild card spot at 69-57 and aren't showing any signs of letting up. They begin a four-game set with the Chicago White Sox today and rookie Wei-Yin Chen will get it started for the O's. The lefty import has been a steady force in the rotation all season at 12-7 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Many expected him to struggle in the second half once the league saw him a few times, but he's only gotten stronger and more confident as time has gone on. He'll go up against fellow left-hander Francisco Liriano of the White Sox today. As usual, it's been an up and down season for Liriano. He's 5-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.42 WHIP overall with the Twins and Sox. With all of the talent that he has, it's hard to comprehend how he can't put up better numbers. Most of his problems stem from his confidence and mental game. As the White Sox enter the stretch run and the pressure intensifies, I'd expect Liriano to crumble even more than he has so far. He's not built for pressure situations. The Orioles have also done very well against southpaws this season and are 10-3 in their last 13 games versus lefties. Baltimore isn't going anywhere this season and I like them to continue their winning ways against Chicago tonight.
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08-24-12 | Toronto Blue Jays +101 v. Baltimore Orioles | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #969 Toronto Blue Jays over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) The Blue Jays lineup is all of a sudden potent again. That's because slugger Jose Bautista will be hitting in the middle of it and he changes the entire dynamic of the offense. Bautista spent four weeks on the disabled list and the Jays consequently fell apart as a team. In his absence, Toronto went 10-23 over 33 games and averaged less than 3.6 runs per game in the process. The Jays have also suffered with a host of other injuries, but getting their best player back will make a world of difference today. They'll go up against left-hander Zach Britton of the Orioles today. The 24-year old has had a difficult season fighting back from injuries early on and spending most of his season in the minor leagues. He's been up with the big club and has made six starts so far without much success. He is coming off of a strong performance his last time out, but his ERA is still at 6.23 and he's struggled with control.
The Jays have their hottest starting pitcher on the mound in Carlos Villanueva. The right-hander started in the bullpen this season and was moved to the rotation with all of Toronto's injuries there. Since the transition, Villanueva has a 3.02 ERA and 1.10 WHIP - numbers that are even better than when he was a reliever in shorter stints. That's pretty impressive, especially given the fact that he's went up against some of the better offenses in the American League in his nine starts. He'll stand on the mound against an Oriole offense that has struggled lately and fallen to 10th in the league in runs scored. They are an all or nothing kind of hitting team, and with a hot pitcher going up against them that could spell trouble. I look for the Jays to come with an inspired effort with their leader back, and they are a solid play as an underdog here. |
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08-22-12 | Atlanta Braves -115 v. Washington Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
10 unit Play Take #957 Atlanta Braves over Washington Nationals (7:05pm EST) The fans in Atlanta were calling for it for quite some time, but nobody expected this from Kris Medlen. The 26-year old right-hander had been working in the bullpen for the majority of the season, but a spot opened up when Tommy Hanson was placed on the disabled list a few weeks ago. The Braves had a couple of options, but eventually decided to give Medlen a chance based on his success in the pen. Up until that point, Medlen had pitched very well in relief with a 2.48 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and everyone knew he had great stuff. But since he was placed into the rotation, he has been unstoppable. In four starts, Medlen is 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA and 0.90 WHIP as well as a 22-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His last time out he pitched a complete game shutout in front of the Atlanta fans. This is why they were calling for him to start and he has certainly answered the bell. Today he
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08-21-12 | Cincinnati: H Bailey v. Philadelphia: C Lee -154 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -154 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #902 Philadelphia Phillies over Cincinnati Reds (7:05pm EST) The Philadelphia Phillies are no longer in the National League playoff picture - they never really were this season. However, that doesn't mean that this team isn't still dangerous. With Ryan Howard and Chase Utley back in the lineup and their top two aces 100% healthy, this team is better than their 57-65 record indicates. They've won 10 of 16 and have taken turns winning games with their bats and with their stellar rotation. Cliff Lee gets the ball today and he's finally found a groove in 2012 after a rough start. Over his last four starts, Lee has a 3.34 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in addition to an eye-popping 30-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's no longer is his prime, but Lee is still one of the better pitchers in the National League and I think he might be flying under the radar a bit now.
The Cincinnati Reds send right-hander Homer Bailey to the mound today. He's had an up and down year and checks in at 10-8 with a 4.28 ERA. He hasn't been sharp of late as he's surrendered at least four earned runs in his last four outings and his control has been wild. The Reds are without slugger Joey Votto. So far they've managed pretty well without him, but at some point the role players aren't going to be able to keep picking up the slack and I think the Red's offense will suffer. Cincinnati is also only 2-9 in their last 11 games as a road underdog. I think this Philadelphia team will do a good job of playing spoiler down the stretch here as they no longer have any pressure on them. I like them today behind a surging Cliff Lee. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-19-12 | Minnesota Twins v. Seattle Mariners -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #928 Seattle Mariners over Minnesota Twins (4:10pm EST) The Seattle Mariners host the Minnesota Twins in the series finale this afternoon in Target Field. This definitely won't be one of the highest rated baseball games on the card today, but that doesn't mean there isn't a good opportunity to cash in. The Mariners could have easily thrown in the towel in this season shortly after the All-Star break. At 40-55 in last place in the American League West on July 20th, the M's were clearly not going anywhere this season - but they continued to play hard. That effort has paid off lately as the team has went 17-9 in their 26 games since then. There are a lot of young players on this team fighting for spots on next year's edition, so I don't expect them to let up from here on out. They'll be backed by right-hander Blake Beavan today. Over his last five starts, the 23-year old has started to show signs that he might be a part of the Seattle rotation going forward. He has a 3.41 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in that span and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is an impressive 21-2. This is a big confidence booster for Beavan who has had problems with consistency in his young career.
Speaking of young careers, Samuel Deduno pitches today for the Twins. Although he's 28-years old, this is his first full season in the majors. He's pitched admirably in his seven starts going 4-0 with a 3.38 ERA, but he won't be able to maintain it. Deduno is somehow getting by even though he's walking 6.8 batters per nine innings. That's one of the worst rates in baseball. It would be somewhat acceptable if he was at least striking out a high amount of batters as well, but at the moment he's walking more than he strikes out. He's also been aided by an obscene 81% strand rate, a mark that will fall precipitously as time goes on. 28-year old pitchers making the majors for the first time usually isn't a good sign. If he had great stuff or something to hang his hat on, he would have been up with the big club long ago. It might not be long before he is sent back down to where he truly belongs - Triple A. And it's there where he probably ends up making a career. The Mariners have been playing great baseball lately and they have a much better pitcher throwing today, so we'll gladly go to the window here. They look for the sweep at home today in our Game of the Day. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-17-12 | Los Angeles Dodgers +115 v. Atlanta Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #905 Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the National League. At 11-8 with a 3.11 ERA, the left-hander has quietly given the Dodgers over 150 quality innings this season. He doesn't throw hard, barely getting above 90mph with his fastball, but he certainly knows how to pitch. Capuano is coming off one of his better efforts of the season where he pitched eight shutout innings against the Marlins while striking out 10 batters. The Braves aren't particularly adept at hitting southpaws so I don't expect them to threaten Capuano much today.
On the other side, Tommy Hanson gets his first start since going on the disabled list with a bad back issue. Backs are a tricky type of injury and pain can flare up at any time, so I wouldn't be surprised if Hanson isn't too effective in this one. It's been his worst season of his professional career as he comes in with a 4.29 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. He's managed to earn a 12-5 mark, but don't let that fool you as he's received great run support in his starts. Both of these teams have been playing great baseball lately, but I think the Dodgers are a better team after making several big acquisitions at the trade deadline. Adding Shane Victorino and Hanley Ramirez to put some talent around Kemp and Ethier was a smart move and puts the Dodgers up there as one of the more potent lineups in the league. This line feels just a little bit too big today and I like Los Angeles to escape with a win. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-14-12 | Texas: M Harrison v. New York (A): H Kuroda -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #970 New York Yankees over Texas Rangers (7:05pm EST) Two first place clubs go at in the Bronx as the Yankees host the Rangers tonight. Hiroki Kuroda gets the ball for New York and he has been on an absolute mission lately. Over his last five outings, the right-hander has a 1.82 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The key to his dominance has been his control as he's only walked three batters over those five starts combined. Kuroda has also been spectacular in Yankee Stadium this season as he's 7-4 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.04 WHIP - not too shabby for pitching in a hitter-friendly environment.
Pitching for Texas is left-hander Matt Harrison. He's been a little off his game of late as he's posted a 5.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last four starts. Texas as a team has also struggled lately. Since July 1st, the team is 17-18 and has seen the Angels and A's close the gap in the American League West. Their hitting has been inconsistent and their pitching staff has had some major breakdowns in both the rotation and the pen. The Yankees are 54-26 in their last 80 games against left-handed starters dating back to last season, and I look for them to continue that dominance at home today. Take the Yanks. |
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08-11-12 | Cincinnati: B Arroyo -149 v. Chicago (N): T Wood | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #901 Cincinnati Reds over Chicago Cubs (4:05pm EST) The Cincinnati Reds just broke a five-game losing streak yesterday against the Cubs in a 10-8 win. Despite their recent struggles, the Reds still hold a 3.5 game lead in the National League Central, which is a testament to how good they've been all season. The key to Cincinnati's success has been their strong bullpen. Sure they have a decent offense and some good starting pitchers, but their bullpen has been lights out from the middle men all the way to the closer. The Reds have amassed a 2.59 bullpen ERA in 2012, which is first in all of baseball by a wide margin. At the back end, no end is better than stopper Aroldis Chapman. The flame throwing left-hander has been clocked at over 105mph this season and is striking out a ridiculous 16.9 batters per nine innings. He holds a 1.31 ERA and 0.69 WHIP as he rarely gets himself into any trouble at all. If the Reds have a lead late, you might as well chalk up a victory with the Reds' pen.
Neither one of today's starters is very impressive as Bronson Arroyo and Travis Wood are just you're average #3 or #4 type starters. However, Cincinnati is going to have a much easier time of it today as Wood is a southpaw and the Reds love raking against lefties. With Joey Votto currently on the disabled list, the Reds are typically playing seven right-handers in their everyday lineup. As a result, it's no mystery why they've racked up much better numbers against left-handers and have won six of their last seven games against them. The Cubs come into today's game struggling in every phase of the game and have lost nine of their last 10. They're starting to bring up some of their Triple-A prospects to audition them for 2013, so the worst lineup in baseball just got even worse. The Cubs are dead last in most major batting categories already, and it might get downright embarrassing in the last two months now. The Reds are the much better team here and I think they take this one rather easily. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-10-12 | St.Louis Cardinals v. Philadelphia Phillies -121 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #954 Philadelphia Phillies over St. Louis Cardinals (7:05pm EST) My how things have changed. If today's game between the St. Cardinals and Philadelphia Phillies were being played in early April, the line with this pitching matchup would probably be close to -180 for the Phillies. However, with the Phillies disappointing season and the good fortunes of Kyle Lohse, Philadelphia comes in at only a slight favorite. Roy Halladay has missed most of the season with a shoulder injury, but this will be his fifth start back from the disabled list and he's gotten stronger in each outing. In his last start against the Diamondbacks, Halladay pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out five and walking only one. His control has been pinpoint, something he has struggled with earlier on in the season, and he's only walked a total of three batters in his last four starts since returning. While he may not be quite the pitcher he was in the last few seasons, Halladay looks about 90% or so and that's much better than most pitchers in baseball.
Lohse is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career at 12-2 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. However, his numbers don't quite add up as none of his skills have really changed much. At 34-years old, starting pitchers don't generally improve this much after being in the league for over 10 years. Lohse is still striking out 5.4 batters per nine innings, which is the same as his career mark. His groundball rate is actually worse than his career levels at only 41% in 2012. He hasn't developed any new pitches or come back from any serious injuries either. The only improvement he has made is that he's walking one less batter per nine innings than his career average. While that is a significant reduction, it doesn't justify an ERA that is 1.7 runs lower than his career mark. Bottom line - expect some regression from the veteran from here on out. The Phillies lineup hasn't hit to its potential this season, but they're still dangerous with Chase Utley and Ryan Howard starting to get comfortable at the plate. This will also be one of the few matchups where the Phillies can say that they have an advantage in the bullpen, as the Cardinals pen has been a complete disaster over the last couple of months. With Halladay getting back into his old form, the line on this game is just way too low and that's why we've made it our 10-unit Game of the Day |
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08-08-12 | New York (A): C Sabathia -136 v. Detroit: A Sanchez | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #975 New York Yankees over Detroit Tigers (7:05pm EST) CC Sabathia is on the mound for the Yankees today and he looks as good as ever. The burly left-hander is 11-3 with a 3.53 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on the season, and in last outing he went the distance against the Mariners striking out 10 and only walking one. Sabathia is a rare breed as he's always been one of those pitchers who get better as the season goes along. He doesn't wear down like many other pitchers do, and he seems to find himself a nice groove in the second half of the season. He'll face a Tigers lineup that struggles against southpaws, hitting only .250 against them for a 10th place ranking in the league. It surely won't be any easier with Sabathia in his second half groove either.
The Tigers made some moves at the trading deadline to improve their team for the stretch run, and one of the guys they acquired was today's starter Anibal Sanchez. The 28-year old right-hander is having a decent season at 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but most of those starts were against much weaker National League hitters. There aren't many lineups comparable to the Yankees in the National League and Sanchez didn't look too incredibly comfortable against the Indians and Blue Jays in his first two American League starts. Sanchez will need to be extremely sharp going up against Sabathia, but I don't think he's comfortable enough to do that yet. Take the Yankees at a low price with Sabathia on the hill. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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08-06-12 | Seattle: J Vargas v. Baltimore: C Tillman -135 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #966 Baltimore Orioles over Seattle Mariners (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles host the Seattle Mariners in the first of a three-game set in Camden Yards. The Orioles come in riding a high after outlasting the Rays 1-0 in a 10 inning affair yesterday afternoon, making that five wins in their last seven games. Despite all of the doubters, the O's have stayed in the thick of things in the American League and are now at 57-51 on the season. Right-hander Chris Tillman will toe the rubber for Baltimore today and he's been a nice boost to the rotation in the place of the injured Jason Hammel. In his five starts, Tillman is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Four of his starts were on the road as well, making it even more impressive. Tillman also already beat Seattle in his first start of the season where he almost went the distance. He pitched 8 2/3 innings in that contest without giving up an earned run and only allowing two hits and two walks.
The Mariners counter with left-hander Jason Vargas. The 29-year old is 12-7 with a 3.71 ERA on the season, but a closer look at his splits reveals an important fact. Vargas is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. At home, Vargas checks in with a cool 2.63 ERA and on the road he has a mediocre 4.67 ERA - one of the biggest differentials in the league. He's been that way for most of his career and a lot of that has to do with his pitching style and the fact that he pitches in Safeco Field at home. Baltimore is much more hitter-friendly and isn't as kind to extreme fly ball pitchers. Baltimore hits southpaws very well on top of it, so Vargas will have his work cut out for him today. The Orioles may not be quite as good as their record indicates, but this is a much better team than the Mariners with just about any pitching matchup except versus King Felix. Baltimore also has a stronger pen and much more pop in their lineup, so this line should be closer to -150. Take the O's at a good price. |
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08-03-12 | Toronto: B Cecil v. Oakland: D Straily -145 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #930 Oakland A's over Toronto Blue Jays (10:05pm EST) The Oakland A's host the Toronto Blue Jays in game that features Daniel Straily's major league debut for Oakland. Straily was just called up from Triple-A Sacramento where he simply dominated. He went 5-2 with a 1.36 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in eight starts there after being promoted from Double-A. At Double-A Midland he had a 3.38 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. In both places he struck out 11.4 batters per nine innings and was the minor league strikeout leader when he was called up. He also has excellent control and only walks 2.4 batters per nine innings. Needless to say, this 23-year old has some great stuff and has a high ceiling. Oakland has waved the magic wand in regards to bringing along their young pitchers. This year alone they've developed Tom Milone, Jarrod Parker, A.J. Griffin and Travis Blackley into formidable major league starting pitchers. That's a great track record and should bode well for the fortunes of Straily, as the A's have deemed him to be ready for the show.
The Blue Jays' season is all but over as they sit in the cellar of the American League East with too many teams in front of them for the two wild card spots. If they were 100% healthy, they might have a shot, but without their original starting rotation and slugger Jose Bautista it's a lost cause. Injuries have forced today's starter Brett Cecil into the rotation, and he's been mediocre at best. The left-hander is 2-4 with a 5.56 ERA in eight starts and he's probably one bad start away from being demoted back to the minors. The Jays have dropped five straight and the mood isn't very good in Toronto. The A's, on the other hand, have won 20 of 26 and are vying for a wild card spot as baseball's hottest team right now. Straily should have a big edge against the Jays as no one has seen him before and I think he'll pitch well and get good support from one of the best bullpens in the league. Take Oakland as our American League Game. |
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08-01-12 | Cleveland Indians -103 v. Kansas City Royals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #927 Cleveland Indians over Kansas City Royals (8:10pm EST) Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Zach McAllister is quietly putting together a very solid rookie campaign. The 24-year old right-hander is 4-2 with a 3.18 ERA and has the skill set to get even better. He's averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings and only 2.3 walks. His fastball gets up to the mid-90's and he has good mound presence for a youngster. Today he'll face the Royals for the first time in his career - a definite leg up for the rookie. The Royals have also struggled at the plate for most of the season; ranking 13th in runs scored in the American League. They're clearly a team looking ahead to the future rather than in the present. In fact, the Royals are only 6-21 in their last 27 games overall.
The Royals starter today is right-hander Luis Mendoza. At 4-7 with a 4.47 ERA, the 28-year old is still trying to find his way in his first full season. He spent six years in the minor leagues combined with the Red Sox, Rangers and now the Royals organization. That's usually not a great sign for a big league pitcher as the most talented prospects are generally given a legitimate shot well before then. The biggest problem for Mendoza is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. He only strikes out 5.3 batters per nine innings while walking 3.9. That ratio will need to improve for him to stay up with big club. The Indians are an underrated offense that has endured quite a few injuries this season. They're also a patient team at the plate, evidenced by their number two ranking in walks in the league, so they can put pressure on opposing hurlers who struggle with their control. Neither one of today's teams is playoff bound, but the Indians look to be playing a lot harder and they have a definite advantage on the hill today. Take the Indians at a nice price today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-31-12 | LA Anaheim: J Weaver -101 v. Texas: D Holland | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #971 Los Angeles Angels over Texas Rangers (8:05pm EST) Division rivals go at it again as the Los Angeles Angels look to close the gap even further against the first place Texas Rangers. The Angels rocked the Rangers 15-8 last night in Arlington to pull within four games of first place in the American League West. It was a statement game for the Angels as they continue to put pressure on the struggling Rangers. Los Angeles ace Jered Weaver gets the ball in this one and he's been as good as it gets in the American League this year at 13-1 with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. On the other side is Derek Holland who has struggled this year at 7-5 with a 4.74 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Holland has fought through injuries for part of the season and his stuff hasn't been as sharp recently as a result.
There's no question that the Angels are the hotter team right now. On May 21st, the Angels were 18-25 in last place in the division while the Rangers were 26-17, eight full games ahead. Since then the Angels have went 38-22 while the Rangers are 33-25. The Angels have also won five of the last seven meetings between the teams and are 41-15 in Weaver's last 56 starts overall. This one should be a great game but I like the Angels' chances with the way they've been playing and the much better starting pitcher. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-28-12 | Oakland: B Colon +103 v. Baltimore: T Hunter | Top | 6-1 | Win | 103 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #923 Oakland A's over Baltimore Orioles (7:05pm EST) Two right-handers go at it today in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Oakland A's. Veteran Bartolo Colon gets the ball for the surging A's today. Oakland comes at 17-3 in their last 20 games and has been a wrecking ball offensively. Over those 20 games, the A's are averaging 5.3 runs per game including 41 runs over their last four contests (10.3 per game). The current streak has propelled the A's into the second wild card spot in the American League and this young team is finally starting to believe that they might be able to pull off a miracle this season. Colon has been a reliable starter for the A's this season and always keeps the team in the game. He's 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA, but has only given up more than four runs twice in his 19 starts this season. He's also done a really good job of eating innings this season and giving the bullpen a little more rest when they need it.
Right-hander Tommy Hunter goes today for the O's. The 26-year old has been like a pinball for the last couple of seasons bouncing back and forth between the major leagues and minor league systems. He was recently called up due to injuries and has pitched decent in his first two starts. However, his stuff wasn't great as he only punched out a total of five batters in 14 1/3 innings against Cleveland and Minnesota. One of the reasons that he was sent down originally was his propensity for giving up the long ball. He's served up 22 home runs in his 15 starts this season and one each in his last two outings. Oakland hits well on the road and they've shown lately that they can take advantage of weak pitching. The Orioles, on the other hand, have struggled at the plate lately averaging only 3.6 runs per contest over their last 17. The A's have had a big upper hand in this series for the last several seasons going 64-26 in the last 90 meetings, including 36-17 the last 53 meetings in Baltimore. The A's are the hottest team in baseball right now and they still aren't getting enough respect to be the favorites against a struggling Baltimore team. Take Oakland as our 5-unit Game of the Day. |
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07-24-12 | Atlanta Braves v. Miami Marlins +105 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10-unit Play Take #908 Miami Marlins over Atlanta Braves (7:10pm EST) A pair of veterans square off as the Miami Marlins host the Atlanta Braves tonight. The 33-year old Mark Buehrle takes the ball for the Marlins and he's been on a nice run of late. In his last five starts, Buehrle is 4-1 with a 1.87 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He seems to be getting more comfortable with National League batters in each start and is making better adjustments against them than his opposition is. You can always count on Buehrle to keep you in the game, as he has only surrendered more than four earned runs on one occasion in 19 starts this year. He'll have a decent advantage today against a left-handed heavy Atlanta lineup as well.
On the other side is Tim Hudson. The right-hander is a bit older than Buehrle as 37-years old, and his age is definitely starting to show this season. Statistically he's having his worse season since 2006 and the peripheral numbers back it up. He's still respectable at 8-4 with a 3.70 ERA, but he's lost a ton of velocity on his fastball, especially in his last five starts. There could be a hidden injury for Hudson or he could be making some mechanical changes to compensate for losing some of his stuff. Either way, he's not the same Hudson that we've seen over the last decade or so. The Marlins made a big trade yesterday in unloading Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante for prospects. It basically put up the white flag and signaled that the Marlins are now looking towards the future instead of the playoffs this year. At 45-51 it was smart move, and I think this deal will actually allow the Marlins to play without pressure for the first time all season. It's been a tough year with a new stadium and all of the expectations for the team due to the heavy spending in the offseason. I like the pitching matchup in this one and think a loose Miami team will come through with a win today. Best of Luck - Doc's Sports |
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07-21-12 | Colorado Rockies -102 v. San Diego Padres | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
We don't have the sexiest of matchups today in San Diego, but that doesn't mean there isn't value to be found. The Colorado Rockies take on the Padres in a game that features a couple of subpar starting pitchers. The Rockies send left-hander Jeff Francis to the mound. Francis is only 2-2 with a 4.76 ERA in his eight starts on the season. Opposing pitcher Kip Wells is 1-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his four starts in 2012. On the surface, it appears that Wells is having the better year, but that would be an inaccurate assumption. Wells has simply been luckier than Francis so far and pitches in a much friendlier environment. Francis comes in with a 1.41 WHIP while Wells checks in at an astronomical 1.61. That will eventually catch up with him as he's putting way too many guys on base. Wells also made half of his starts in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, one of easiest places to pitch in all of baseball, while Francis' home park is the dangerous Coors Field. Adjusting for these factors, you can easily identify Francis as the superior pitcher right now and should put out a better effort in this matchup.
In addition, the Padres have a very difficult time against southpaws and Francis throws from the left side. They carry a .628 OPS against lefties, which places them 15th in the National League. Going back to last season, the Padres are also only 18-41 in their last 59 games versus left-handed starters. The Rockies haven't proven to be a great hitting team on the road, but they have won six of Francis' last seven starts. Colorado has also won 13 of the last 19 contests in San Diego, so they should be comfortable in this one. The numbers point to the Rockies in this one and I think they get the job done tonight. |