Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-05-11 | Denver Nuggets v. Los Angeles Clippers -1.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. These teams have met three times so far this season. In each case, the home team has come away victorious. I expect that to be the case again this evening.
While the Nuggets have fared very well since the Carmello trade, they're still only 11-19 on the road. That's not nearly as good as LA's 17-15 mark at home. True, the Clippers had been really struggling for some time. Much of that had to do with the fact that leading scorer Eric Gordon had been out for the past 18 games. Gordon finally returned on Wednesday and the Clippers promptly snapped a 5-game losing streak by beating Houston 106-103. It was the first time they topped the 100 point mark in nine games. Gordon led the way, scoring 24 points. Afterwards, he was quoted as saying: "I just started shooting the ball about a week ago, but I've been staying in shape. That's all I've been doing. I've been running every day. The toughest part was just sitting there, knowing that I could have been out there helping the team in some way. It was good to finally come back and help the guys get a win." Note that Gordon hit four "3-pointers" and scored 28 points when the Clippers beat the Nuggets by 13 here in January. True, the Nuggets seem like they can still score. The Clippers are a healthy 20-13 ATS against teams that score 99 or more points though. They're also 5-1 SU the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line of 210 or greater. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |
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03-05-11 | Nebraska v. Colorado -4.5 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
I'm playing on COLORADO. The Huskers won by double-digits when these teams faced each other earlier in the season. That was at Nebraska though, where the Huskers are very tough to beat. They're not nearly as good on the road. In fact, they're just 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS in "true" road games, 2-8 away from home overall. They're now an ugly 6-24 on the road the past few seasons.
Like their guests, the Buffaloes have had real trouble winning on the road. They're 4-10 away from Colorado. However, they're excellent here at home. They've only played two home games since 2/12. Those resulted in victories over Kansas State and Texas. Both those teams are ahead of Nebraska in the standings, both are better on the road than the Huskers. They're now an impressive 14-2 at home, going 8-3 ATS in lined games. While the Huskers are off a home win, the Buffaloes are off a road loss. That shouldn't stop us here though. Nebraska is 6-11 ATS (5-12 SU) the past few seasons, when off a conference win. During that stretch, Colorado is 20-12 ATS when coming off a conference loss, including 5-2 ATS its last seven in that situation. The fact that the Huskers won the earlier game is significant, as Colorado is typically a very profitable team when playing in the "revenge" role. In fact, the Buffaloes are 18-8 ATS the last 26 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. That includes a 6-2 SU/ATS mark their last eight in that role. Laying -2.5 points, the Buffaloes beat the Huskers by 12 points (72-60) here last season. I expect another win and cover here. *10 |
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03-05-11 | Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma +1 | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Cowboys are slight favorites in this game, based largely on the fact that they've got the superior overall record. However, the Cowboys have built up their overall record up by winning at home. Winning on the road has been a different story. Likewise, the Sooners have struggled on the road but are far more respectable at home. In fact, despite a recent skid, Oklahoma's home record (11-5) remains far superior to Oklahoma State's poor 1-8 SU (2-7 ATS) mark on the road.
While the Cowboys' lone road win came at La Salle, way back on 12/4, the Sooners have earned home victories against the likes of Baylor, Texas Tech and Colorado. While admittedly a young team, the Sooners should have plenty of motivation. Not only are they playing with "revenge" from a loss at Oklahoma City, but this is also their final regular season home game. Perhaps every bit as importantly, this game will be a "Salute to Bob Barry." The longtime voice of the Sooners has been involved in Oklahoma sports broadcasting for 50 years and this will be his final home radio broadcast. Naturally, the players would like to avenge the earlier loss and send Barry out with a victory. More importantly, the Sooners just want a victory. They didn't play well at Texas Tech last time out and it didn't sit well with coach Capel. He was quoted as saying: "I'm really embarrassed about our performance. I really felt that we would have come out ready to fight, desperate for a win. We came out the opposite, and Texas Tech came out that way and knocked us back early. We were never in the game." The Sooners are 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were listed as home underdogs in the pick'em to +3 range. They played the Cowboys tough at Oklahoma City (were winning at halftime and lost by 6) and they're 10-3 SU the last 13 times that they were a host in the series. They're also 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they attempted to avenge an earlier road loss. I expect them to improve on those stats here. *10 |