Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 104 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units Baltimore QB, Jackson is 31-11 in his NFL career, including 15-6 at home. With it, he’s been a home dog only once back in 2019 when he took 3 points from New England and beat the snot out of Tom Brady and the Patriots, 37-20. And then there is Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh, who brings a lofty 19-4 SU and 15-8 ATS career record at home during the month of September. To top it off, consider, that defending NFL Super Bowl loser as an away pick or favorite vs. a non-division opponent that won 9 or more games last season is 1-12-1 ATS since 1990. |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Chargers | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Prescott is 5-2 SUATS as an underdog when coming off a loss in his NFL career, including 4-0 SUATS the last four games. In addition, the Cowboys are 10-3 ATS as non-conference road dogs. The Chargers completed an uncanny 14 of 19 third downs in last week’s win over Washington. We don’t see that happening two weeks in a row. Not with the Bolts sporting a 6-10 SU and 3-12-1 ATS record when favored in games before taking on division rival Kansas City. In addition, NFL teams coming off a SU loss and ATS win on Thursday are 15-7 ATS away since 1986, including 5-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win |
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09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | 25-48 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in games before facing the Rams and 2-8 ATS after taking on the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Atlanta invades off a deeply disappointing 32-6 home loss to the Eagles in new head coach Arthur Smith’s debut. NFL head coaches, coming off a season-opening loss of 20 or more points are 12-7 ATS the following game, including 9-3 ATS away. With the Dirty Birds sporting an 11-1 ATS record in Game Twos, we’ll join the Super Bowl Champ fade-train today. |
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09-19-21 | Rams v. Colts +4 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford’s, has a 10-15-1 ATS record as a road favorite in the NFL, including 2-9 ATS versus foes coming off a double-digit loss – with a 0-4 ATS mixer added in when Stafford is coming off a win in its last game. Colts head coach Frank Reich is 17-8-1 ATS in his NFL career as a head coach against foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS versus greater than .750 opponents |
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09-19-21 | Bills -3.5 v. Dolphins | 35-0 | Win | 102 | 97 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units In the Dolphins’ takedown of once-mighty New England, QB Tagovailoa went 16-of-27 for 202 yards, one touchdown, and an interception. He nearly had a second pick, but a Patriot defender dropped the pass. Miami is also famous for post-Patriot letdowns, just 2-11 ATS since 2013, including 0-5 ATS when coming off a win over New England. |
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09-18-21 | Stanford v. Vanderbilt +12 | 41-23 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 UnitUpset of the Week Teams who beat USC are 4-15 ATS the following game against non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. In addition, the Cardinal as a favorite in games after pulling off an upset as an underdog, are 10-22-1 ATS. HC David Shaw checks in at 3-8-2 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win themselves, including 0-8-1 ATS in the last nine games. The Commodores picked up their initial win under new head coach Clark Lea last week, when they surprised the Rams at Colorado State, 24-21, as +6.5-point underdogs. It was the first time Commies put one in the win column since November of 2019. Today they’ll look to make amends for the ugly home loss to East Tennessee State that opened the season two weeks ago, knowing they are 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS at home in lined games versus non-conference opponents when coming off a win, including 7-0 SUATS against foes also coming off a win. Also consider that .500 College football teams in Game Three of the season are 1-8 SU and 1-7-1 ATS since 1980 in non-conference games when coming off a SU win as a dog of 14 or more points. |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -6 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 82 h 8 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units SEC dogs of 7 or fewer points are 8-18 SU and 9-17 ATS in battles with the Big Ten, including 3-10 ATS of late. Also, HC Bryan Harsin, in his first season in Auburn after leaving Boise State, has a shaky 1-5 SUATS mark versus non-conference foes coming off a SUATS win. Penn State is on a 6-0 SUATS win skein since starting the 2020 season on a 0-5 skid. James Franklin is also 8-4 ATS at home versus SEC opponents – he beat Auburn, 17-13, in his only meeting from his days with Vanderbilt. In addition he is 8-2 SU at home versus undefeated opponents, including 6-1 SUATS when his team is coming off a win. But also consider that Nittany Lions’ head coach James Franklin is 17-4 SUATS in his career when coming off consecutive SUATS wins, including 12-0 ATS over the last twelve games. |
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09-18-21 | South Carolina +32 v. Georgia | 13-40 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Georgia is just 3-8 ATS as conference home chalk of more than 17 points. Meanwhile, South Carolina is 7-1 ATS as conference dogs of more than 15 points, and the Gamecocks are playing hard under new HC Shane Beamer. Also consider that Drilling down, if the 2-0 teams managed to beat the spread in each of their first two games, they’ve gone on to beat the spread only 45% of the time in Game Three. And worse, if they are facing an avenging foe who they defeated in their most recent meeting, they fall to 38-60-2 ATS. Put these same teams up against a conference foe and they erode to 14-37-1 ATS, including 0-11 ATS when favored by more than 23 points. |
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09-18-21 | Mississippi State v. Memphis +3.5 | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 79 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The last time Memphis dressed up as a home dog versus the SEC, they knocked off Ole Miss, 37-24, as a 10-point underdog. Memphis HC Ryan Silverfield also took down UCF and Houston last season, winning and covering as a home dog. And in case you didn’t know, Memphis is 9-3 ATS against SEC foes who own a winning record, including 6-1 ATS at the Liberty Bowl. Finally, consider that College football home dogs in Game Three of the season who scored 40 or more points each in a pair of season-opening wins are 13-2 ATS since 1991. |
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09-18-21 | Alabama v. Florida +15 | 31-29 | Win | 100 | 52 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Alabama HC, Nick Saban is 8-18 ATS as a favorite of more than 14 points with Alabama in games in which the Tide’s average rushing offense is less than its opponent’s average rushing offense, including 1-11 ATS during the first six games of the season. Florida head coach Mullen comes in a lofty home dog log (2-0 SUATS with Florida), including a glitzy 5-0 ATS when taking double-digits. Bama has won seven straight games in this series, but then again, Utah had won seven consecutive games against BYU until last week! Saban is also just 30-33 ATS with the Tide as a favorite of 17 or fewer points in SEC games, including 1-4 ATS within the first three games of the season. Getting in and out of the Swamp may not be an easy task for Alabama this Saturday, so we’ll swim against the Tide on the back of the Gators. |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +8 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -108 | 76 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating; 3 Units Last week’s narrow victory over the Rockets puts the Fighting Irish at just 1-5 ATS in their last six tries as home chalk. That’s not good considering Purdue is 8-1 ATS as a dog of 7 or more points, and the Boilermakers have cashed in the last three series meetings. Head coach Jeff Brohm brought back 18 starters from a squad that squandered a 2-0 start last year by going 0-4 SUATS thereafter, and they’ve taken care of business so far against Oregon State and UConn. With Notre Dame just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight games versus Big Ten foes, and 2-6 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, we just can’t go with Kelly’s heroes this afternoon. |
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09-18-21 | Cincinnati v. Indiana +4.5 | Top | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Indiana HC, Allen stands 15-7-1 ATS when coming off a win, including 9-1 ATS the last ten. Not many good ATS numbers for Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are a surprising 3-6 ATS as road chalk. With Top 10 teams dropping like flies the last two weeks, we’ll take the Hoosiers to spring yet another upset today. Also consider that Cincinnati HC Fickell is 1-5 SU on the Big Ten road in his career, including 0-5 when his team sports a winning record. |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida -6.5 v. Louisville | 35-42 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Louisville defense is allowing 402.0 yards per game and is going to have a tough time slowing Dillon Gabriel and the UCF offense, which is averaging 583.0 yards. The Louisville offense, led by QB Malik Cunningham, won’t be able to keep up, much the same way the Cardinals fell short against Ole Miss. I’m on UCF to cover. Consider that UCF is 6-1 ATS as non-conference road chalk, while the Cardinals have slammed into the ground as dogs of 10 or fewer points, currently on a 0-7 ATS dive. |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Giants QB, Jones is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS versus Washington, and his OC Jason Garrett was 14-5 against Washington while with the Cowboys, including 3-1 SUATS as a dog. Consider also that New York is 7-1 ATS in its last eight division road games while Washington is 1-6 ATS in its last seven as division home chalk |
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09-16-21 | A's v. Royals +1.5 | 7-2 | Loss | -144 | 2 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Still irked the Royals came up one run short of a RL cover last night with the bases loaded and none out in the bottom of the ninth. That's just how my day went. Ah well. We'll go back to the RL as Oakland remains without slugger Matt Chapman again and starts Paul Blackburn, who is 0-2 with a 7.00 ERA in two road starts. Meanwhile, in four home starts vs. teams not named the White Sox, Royals left Daniel Lynch is 2-0 with a 2.59 ERA. KC is 4-1 in its past five after a loss. |
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09-15-21 | Padres v. Giants +1.5 | 9-6 | Loss | -165 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Completely agree with John Bollman that it's hard to fathom the Giants are home dogs again -- yes, San Diego's Joe Musgrove is a fine pitcher, but he has been worse away and has a 8.10 ERA in two starts vs. the Giants. It apparently will be another bullpen game for SF. Unlike John, I'm going to take the runline safety net on San Francisco at -160. |
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09-15-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -143 | 2 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle has generally been the American League runline version of Colorado in that the Mariners have been money at home on the RL. The M''s also are 30-22 in day games, while Boston is 24-28 for what that's worth. Seattle lefty Marco Gonzales is 7-0 with a 2.54 ERA in his 11 starts. The Sox are 3-10 in their last 13 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Boston rookie Tanner Houck has been a bit worse on the road (4.12 ERA) and during the day (4.08 ERA). A couple of Sox regulars are taking a seat (but none of their All-Stars). |
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09-15-21 | Marlins v. Nationals +1.5 | 8-6 | Loss | -150 | 1 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Marlins are starting a really weak lineup with Jesus Aguilar and Jorge Alfaro injured and stellar rookie second baseman Jazz Chisholm getting the game off. Miami rookie lefty Trevor Rogers hasn't been the same guy he was in the first half of the season. The Nats have scored five runs in 10 innings off him. It's rookie lefty Josh Rogers for Washington and he has been pretty good in his first two big-league starts. This will be the first matchup between two rookie starters with the same last name since brothers Greg and Mike Maddux squared off on Sept. 29, 1986. |
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09-14-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 2 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting a pretty cheap price on the Dodgers runline at -125. Six of their past seven wins are by multiple runs, including 5-1 Monday vs. the Snakes. Closer Kenley Jansen is available after being activated off the injured list, although I am obviously hoping there isn't a situation where he's needed in a one-run game in the ninth. Arizona starting pitcher Luke Weaver has been great at home this year but has an 8.20 ERA in four road starts. He also has a 7.25 ERA in 22.1 innings career vs. LA. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens v. Raiders +4 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 100 h 60 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units Playing three road games in a row is always tough, as since 2014, sixteen other teams have been in that same situation: playing their last two preseason games on the road and then opening the regular season on the road. Those sixteen teams are 6-10 SU and 5-10-1 ATS in Week One, including 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS if they failed to make the postseason the previous year. Both Baltimore and Jacksonville played their last two preseason games on the road, and then open the season on the road. That makes their Week One game their third road game in a row. MNF favorites dip to 4-12 SU and 1-15 ATS when laying less than 6 points in a game in which the Over/Under total is set at 40 or more points |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 103 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Chicago will be starting Andy Dalton, who brings a 6-19 SU and 9-16 ATS record into this game in his last twenty-five starts. With it, the Bears lug along a 1-7 ATS mark as dogs of 5 or more points and an 8-18 ATS dog log under the Sunday Night lights. On the home front, there’s a reason that head coach Sean McVay and general manager Les Snead were comfortable trading multiple first round picks for 33-year-old quarterback, Matthew Stafford, with one career Pro Bowl. The former fi rst pick in the 2009 draft, he gives them a missing ingredient and a key factor that nearly every Super Bowl winning team possesses – a top-flight quarterback. His career Passer Rating actually ranks higher than the likes of Terry Bradshaw, Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Bart Starr and Roger Staubach, all Hall of Fame Super Bowl winning QBs. Given the hard-heads’ 4-0 SUATS record in season openers under McVay and the host team going 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, consider also that NFL away teams in their first game of the season who made the playoff the previous season with 9 or fewer wins are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 2001. |
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09-12-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Mets | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This isn't backing the Yankees at all but fading the Mets (on the runline anyways) and their starting pitcher, Carlos Carrasco. In five home starts, he's 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA. Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt isn't very good, either, but he won't be out there long. I of course will be watching Bears-Rams but at least now I'm interested enough in this one to flip over during commercials. Wait, you can watch sports on computers now |
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09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints +4.5 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 99 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units For what it’s worth, Winston is 28-42 SU and 30-36-4 ATS as a starter in the NFL, including 12-21-3 ATS at home and 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite. However, he is 15-9-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. With that, the Saints are 43-23-3 ATS as dogs under Sean Payton, including 9-2-1 ATS at home as well as 25-9-3 when seeking revenge (New Orleans lost 37-30 as a 3.5-point favorite to Green Bay in September last year). Additionally, the Saints are 6-0-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or fewer points. |
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09-12-21 | Eagles v. Falcons -3 | 32-6 | Loss | -107 | 96 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Falcons have endured three straight non-winning seasons fi ve times since 1990. They bounced back with winning efforts every year, making to the postseason all five times! The bad news for Philly is the Eagles allowed a league-worst 65 sacks in 2020. The good news is Philadelphia will face the league’s softest strength of schedule versus foes who were a combined .430 last season. The Falcons’ luckless 1-8 mark in one-score games, including four in their first five games (all losses), sealed Atlanta’s fate last season. Nevertheless, they were not as bad as their 4-12 record indicated. With Matty Ice now 11-2 SUATS in home openers with the Falcons, and Philly a puzzling 1-12 ATS in domed that last five years, we’ll side with the home team. |
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09-11-21 | Liberty -4 v. Troy | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 79 h 31 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Liberty HC Freeze is 8-3 SUATS as a favorite in his college football head coaching career against opponents with an identical record, including 6-0 SUATS in non-conference contests. On the flip side, the Trojans have hit a rough patch, going just 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS the last two-plus seasons, including 2-7 ATS in games when coming off a win. With both teams loaded to the gills with returning talent, look for these numbers to continue here today. |
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09-11-21 | Memphis v. Arkansas State +5.5 | Top | 55-50 | Win | 100 | 78 h 25 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Arkansas State is 8-1 ATS as a nonconference home dog and now move forward with new head coach Butch Jones (popular Blake Anderson left in the off-season for Utah State) and Red Wolves cruised past Central Arkansas, 40-21, in Jones’ first game last week as a -13.5-point favorite. ASU has assumed the role as a “mission team” this season, suffering its first losing season last year after having been a bowler the past ten seasons. Today, they will look to avenge a 37-24 loss at Memphis to start last year’s campaign knowing that Red Wolves head coach Butch Jones is 18-3 SU at home in his career when coming off a win of more than 8 points. Consider that any college football non-conference home dog of 3 or more points in Game Two with 17 or more returning starters if they are seeking revenge against a foe off a win of 7 or more points is a perfect 11-0 ATS since 1990. |
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09-11-21 | Houston v. Rice +8 | Top | 44-7 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 39 m | Show |
Rating: 3 Unit Upset of the Week The Owls seem to have taken on a different demeanor under HC Mike Bloomgren, who has improved his team’s defense each year since coming aboard. Also, Bloomgren is 15-10-1 ATS as a dog with the Owls, including 11-4-1 ATS with revenge. Consider that Game Two dogs returning 17 starters and coming off a SUATS loss of 15 or more points, are 18-2 ATS when facing a foe coming off a loss. |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 5 m | Show |
Rating: 10 Unit NCAAF Game of the Year While the Cyclones are the choice of many to meet Oklahoma |
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09-11-21 | Texas A&M v. Colorado +17 | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 75 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Buffs opened with a 35-7 win over Northern Colorado last week by outgaining the Bears 281-17 on the ground, while getting TDs from four different RBs. Freshman Brendon Lewis started at QB after beating out two other freshmen (last year’s starter Steven Noyer transferred to Oregon State this summer), going 10 of 15 for 102 yards. This Colorado home game will be played at Empower Field in Denver – the home of the Broncos – instead of Boulder, but consider that Buffs HC Dorrell is s 19-8 ATS as a dog in his career, including 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS at home. |
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09-11-21 | Toledo +16.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 29-32 | Win | 100 | 74 h 49 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Units ND HC Kelly is 0-4 ATS in his career versus .500 or greater MAC foes when his team is not coming off a double-digit win, and 4-8 ATS Game Two since 2008, and 5-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite when coming off a win-no-cover. Coach K must also take a closer look at an anemic Notre Dame ground game that averaged a feeble 1.9 yards per rush against FSU. Jason Candle’s Rockets just happen to be 10-4-1 ATS when undefeated and coming off a win of 28 or more points, including 5-0-1 ATS the last six away. And when the Irish find themselves favored by less than 20 points in Game Two of the season, they have no luck at all, currently standing 5-18 ATS in that role of late. And just when you thought we couldn’t heap any more abuse on Kelly? Also consider that the Irish head coach is 0-5 ATS as a favorite of more than 6 points when coming off a win before facing a Big Ten opponent. |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army -6.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 5 Units Cadet "D" was best in land LY, & holding Georgia State under 180 yards may just signal repeat (allowing |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +9.5 v. Bucs | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Since 1980 teams who won a Super Bowl as an underdog are 84-102-5 ATS as a favorite the following season, including 50-80-4 ATS versus foes that won 6 or more games the previous season. Also, last year’s champs are just 12-24-1 ATS as favorites of more than 6 points during the first two games of the season. With the Bucs being weighed down by their overdone Super Bowl rings and just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS on Thursdays, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home, look for the Brady bunch to fall to 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven NFC East skirmishes tonight. |
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09-09-21 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -109 | 1 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Not risking the Braves at -220 as that is the sort of thing that got me into a funk. So, runline at -115 it is. Not clear which Washington relievers will be available after the team went with a bullpen game yesterday, and it's not like Erick Fedde (6-9, 5.27) likely will last long as the starter here. He has been hammered the past two times out and has an 11.12 ERA in three starts against the Braves this year. They counter with Huascar Ynoa, who has faced the Nationals twice this season and has yet to allow an earned run. |
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09-09-21 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Going to change betting tactics a bit as I'm tired of late-inning losses. Will wager lines the night before where I think there's value and hit the runlines where possible ... at least for a while (not perhaps where an obvious pitching mismatch like in MIN-CLE on Thursday). Won't win as much but should lose a lot less and had been pretty successful for the most part. Not sure why I got off it. Not sure why the Blue Jays are even underdogs here with how they've played in the Bronx so far this week. Pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. has been a huge surprise for the Yankees, but I still trust Toronto's Jose Berrios more. The Yanks haven't seen him since 2018. Cortes, meanwhile, has to turn back into a pumpkin at some point because he was garbage his first three seasons in the majors. |
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09-08-21 | Giants v. Rockies +1.5 | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units As I expected, the Giants are resting two regulars, although I thought one might be Kris Bryant because he's a bit banged up: It's Evan Longoria and Buster Posey. The SF players could be running on fumes without a day off as a whole since Aug. 23 and probably looking ahead to Thursday's day off. Anthony DeSclafani has a 6.26 ERA in six day starts this year. Colorado's Jon Gray comes off the IL and has been better at home (3.67 ERA) and during the day (3.38 ERA). The Rox have been a RL money machine at home but have failed to cover the past three. They are due. |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 80 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Norvell was hired last year after the Seminoles suffered consecutive losing seasons after coming up winners the previous 42 years, but the plague continues. Meanwhile, former Miami head coach Randy Shannon was brought in to clean up the defense. QB transfer McKenzie Milton was “fully cleared to play” after playing five seasons, and going 26-6 at UCF before suffering a gruesome right knee injury, after which he spent five months in a wheel chair and on crutches. And 5-star recruit RB Demarkcus Bowman transfers in from Clemson after backing up Travis Etienne. Florida State underclassmen tallied the most player starts (52.3%) in the ACC last season. Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is 27-5 SU and 17-9-1 ATS at home in his college career, including 3-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. In addition, only two of his 5 home losses have been by more than 7 points. |
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09-05-21 | Braves v. Rockies +1.5 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Getting the Rockies at plus-money at home? No-brainer as I've said many times. Yes, it's the MLB debut of Rox pitcher Ryan Feltner, but he has some very good minor-league numbers and the Braves obviously don't have a "book" on him. All three games in this series have been decided by one run. |
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09-04-21 | Georgia v. Clemson -3 | 10-3 | Loss | -108 | 56 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Swinney is 5-0 SU in his career in opening games of the season when coming off a bowl loss the previous campaign – by an average winning score of 38-14. Then tack on Clemmie’s 7-1 ATS mark in neutral site games (it was 7-0 until the playoff loss to the Buckeyes). And remember – the Tigers had 26 players make their first-career start during the 2020 season, which tied for the most in the country with Mississippi State, while new QB D.J. Uiagalelei looked mighty impressive in his starting debut against Notre Dame last season. Simply put, Clemson does not have another game on the schedule right now that would offset a tough neutral-site loss to Georgia. Yes, Clemson can still get to the College Football Playoff for the seventh year in a row if the Tigers win out, but they need rivals like Boston College, Florida State and NC State to become quality teams in 2021. Also, playing on any college team in their first game of the season if they lost SU as a bowl favorite of -7 or more points last season and they’ve won 17 or more of their previous 22 games is 14-2 ATS since 1990. |
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09-04-21 | UTSA +5.5 v. Illinois | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
Rating: 5 Units Jeff Traylor came to San Antonio with strong credentials, but he blew the roof off the Alamodome in his first season with the Roadrunners in 2020 – leading them to seven wins and a bowl game. The former associate head coach at Texas, SMU and Arkansas was also a four-time Texas High School Coach of the Year, and led his squads to five state championship game appearances, three state titles and a dozen district crowns. Whew! Safe to say UTSA hit a home run with the hire of this legendary high school coach. It’s paid off at the recruiting window, too, where UTSA moved up 31 spots this season. Behind a team loaded to the gills with experience, it only looks to get better. Las Vegas oddsmaker and Power Rating guru Kenny White pegged the Roadrunners as the deepest team with the most returning experience in 2021. We’re all-in with Kenny. Since joining the FBS, UTSA is 18-12-1 ATS as a non-conference dog, including 6-0 ATS when taking fewer than 8 points, and 3-0 ATS versus foes coming off a SU underdog win. |
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09-04-21 | UL-Lafayette +8 v. Texas | 18-38 | Loss | -102 | 53 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 4 Units A whopping 16 players promptly transferred out of Texas when it was announced that Herman had been replaced. Sarkisian announced that redshirt freshman Hudson Card would be the team’s starting quarterback, as he replaces four-year starter Sam Ehlinger. Card is a four-star prospect, where he was ranked as the second-best dual threat quarterback and seventh-best recruit in Texas in the 2020 recruiting class by 247Sports. Also back for Texas are 5 experienced offensive linemen and a dangerous running back in Bijan Robinson. With the experience card weighing heavily in the Cajuns’ favor today, consider that ULL is 11-3 ATS away as either a dog of a favorite of -7 or more points under Napier, including 4-0 SUATS versus foes who won 8 or fewer games the previous year. |
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09-04-21 | Alabama v. Miami-FL +19.5 | 44-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I realize Alabama always wins these Kickoff Games in blowouts and I'm not saying Miami wins -- although I don't think it's impossible. In terms of returning experience/starters, UM is among the national leaders and Alabama near the bottom. Nick Saban lost a TON of talent off last year's championship team. Sure, he simply reloads with five-stars, but it might take a few games to get going. I'll be stunned if the Tide cover this number. Consider as well that playing on any ’17 returning starter’ underdog in its first game of the season, your win percentage zooms to over 58% with a 98-71-3 ATS winning record. Better yet, put dress these same guys up as double-digit dogs who won 3 or more games the previous season and they become a 40-22-1 ATS winning proposition. |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Northwestern hosts Michigan State tonight they will do so with a dose of 'double-revenge' on their minds – including a 29-20 loss as -13.5-point chalk at MSU last season. Given the Wildcats 9-1 ATS record as conference favorites of 10 or fewer points the last six years, and a 12-3 ATS overall mark when seeking revenge from a Big Ten loss, we'll opt for the better team and the better coach in this payback this evening. |
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09-03-21 | Braves v. Rockies +1.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Won yet again on the Rockies RL on Thursday, and I see no reason to stop Friday at -120. Their pitcher Thursday, Chi Chi Gonzalez, is one of the NL's worst (probably why they lost 6-5), but Friday's starter Antonio Senzatela has always been better in Denver (3.89 ERA this year) and has a 2.93 ERA in five starts overall since coming off the injured list. Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa is a fine young pitcher, but this will be his first time at Coors Field. It's a totally different experience. I'm going to take the Rox +1.5 at home pretty much always when they are -120 or better. |
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09-03-21 | North Carolina v. Virginia Tech +5.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fuente finds himself on the hottest of hot seats in his sixth season-opener at Blacksburg. Recent ATS history is not on UNC’s side here, as Va Tech owns six covers in its last eight games with the Heels, plus the series host is on a 4-0 ATS run. We also prefer the Hokies’ recent 5-1 ATS mark with conference revenge to North Carolina’s surprisingly feeble 1-5 ATS effort as chalk of 7 or |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee -35 | Top | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NCAAF Play of the Day Will Josh Heupel be the answer for the Vols, who've not only hit the skids (245-118 point deficit 7-of-last-8, & must overcome transfer losses). But if there ever was a tonic, the Falcons provide it, with 0-9 ATS road record, ceding 43 point per game in their last 24 tilts |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota +14 | 45-31 | Push | 0 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I was waiting for this to get back to 14 jic. Don't think will get higher. Ohio State coach Ryan Day just named CJ Stroud his starting QB. That's fine. Minnesota's Tanner Morgan is one of the best returning QBs in the Big Ten. The Nuts lost so much talent. Yep, they will rock but will take a while. My boy PJ Fleck (Western Michigan) and the Row The Boats bring back 20 starters and will cover if not pull the upset. |
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09-02-21 | Brewers +1.5 v. Giants | 1-5 | Loss | -130 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I can't fathom the Giants being swept four games at home and was going to back them here ... until I saw their lineup. No Buster Posey. Down to their fourth-string second baseman due to injuries. A starting outfield of Austin Slater, Darin Ruf and Mauricio Dubon. Yikes! So, I'll take the Brewers RL at -130 behind Eric Lauer (2.76 day ERA). I'd take the Under if the wind wasn't blowing out a bit. |
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08-31-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 1 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Baltimore pitcher Keegan Akin is 0-5 with an 8.25 ERA on the road and was shelled for six runs in 4.1 innings in his lone 2021 start vs. Toronto. The Blue Jays offense, which already is the best at home in the AL, welcomed back George Springer from injury Monday. In 50 games as a Blue Jay, he has now scored 42 runs and reached base safely 79 times. Toronto pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu is 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA this year vs. the Birds (who are resting one of their top hitters in Trey Mancini). Obviously not going to risk -320 or whatever so Jays at -150 on runline it is. |
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08-30-21 | Twins v. Tigers +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Generally speaking, teams that have to travel to a city for a one-game makeup and then fly right back out to another location don't fare well in that makeup game because they just don't want to be there. That's the position the Twins are in here. They played a home series over the weekend vs. the Brewers, now have this meaningless game and then fly back home for another series starting Tuesday vs. the Cubs. Minnesota is a pretty lousy road team as it is. We'll take the Tigers on the RL -- behind former No. 1 overall pick Casey Mize on the mound -- to be safe. |
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08-29-21 | Patriots -3 v. Giants | 22-20 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units New England has a three-game rest advantage over the Giants, having played their last preseason game on a Thursday, while New York played a week ago today. The clincher: The favorite (New England) scored more than 17 points and beat the spread by 7 or more ponts, and won 1 or more preseason games last year, is 15-0-1 since 1983. |
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08-28-21 | Bucs -3.5 v. Texans | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units When Tampa Bay travels to Houston in the final preseason game for both teams tonight the Bucs will do so knowing that defending Super Bowl champions are 6-0 SUATS away in exhibition games when facing foes coming off consecutive wins, with the last coming as an underdog. For what it's worth five of the wins came SU as underdogs. In addition, Tampa head coach Bruce Arians is 8-3-1 ATS away in his NFL preseason career, including 5-1 ATS in his first road traveller. And for what its worth, winless defending Super Bowl champions are also 3-0 ATS in their final preseason game since 1995. |
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08-28-21 | Bears -2.5 v. Titans | 27-24 | Win | 105 | 33 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NFL teams who open the preseason with a pair of home games are 31-15 SU and 31-12-3 away in Game Three when facing a foe in its preseason home opener, including 26-9-1 ATS when taking points. Not only is Chicago 3-0 SUATS in Game Three of the preseason, including 2-0 SUATS under head coach Matt Nagy, the Bears pair up nicely in this matchup with added fuel from THE CLINCHER: Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS at home in preseason games under head coach Mike Vrabel |
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08-28-21 | Ravens -3.5 v. Washington Football Team | 37-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is just simply a play on HC John Harbough as he is 19-0 SU and 17-1-1 ATS in the preseason since 2016. |
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08-28-21 | Hawaii +18 v. UCLA | 10-44 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Chip Kelly has a horrible track record in nonconference games, particularly at UCLA where he's 1-5 so far. The lone cover came as a huge dog to Oklahoma, and the two times the Bruins have been favored in noncon games under Kelly they lost outright. I don't think that happens here, but with LSU looming, the Bruins will keep it pretty basic in their opener. |
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08-28-21 | Connecticut v. Fresno State -27.5 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 5 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a lot of points to lay, but I think the number is still short and maybe not accounting for a home field that has Connecticut making its longest trip of the season. This is the first opener for the Huskies since 2019. They have lots of experience returning from teams that went 3-21 in 2018-19. They might be rated too high. I believe Fresno State, with its running and passing games and most of their starters returning, buries the Huskies. Fresno State to cover. |
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08-28-21 | Nebraska v. Illinois +7 | 22-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This line has dropped back to 6.5 at some books, so let's go ahead and jump now. I'm not sure that Nebraska should be a 7-point road favorite over any Big Ten team considering how much it has underachieved under Scott Frost. The Huskers are 5-11 ATS when favored under Frost and were blasted last year at home by Illinois, which should be better-coached in 2021 under Bret Bielema. It's a very veteran team with three super seniors along on the offensive line and a senior QB in Brandon Peters. |
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08-27-21 | Vikings +4.5 v. Chiefs | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota HC Zimmer has a 37-16 SU and 36-17 ATS career log in games against AFC foes, including 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS in NFLX games. While defending Super Bowl losers are 7-15 SU and 5-16-1 ATS in Game Three of the preseason since 1998. |
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08-25-21 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | 5-6 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I expect Houston to take off now that Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman are both back from injury/COVID -- Bregman is being activated today. The Astros should rough up Royals lefty Mike Minor (5.34 ERA) as Kansas City has lost his past four overall, and he's a bit worse away from home. Houston leads the AL in OPS vs. southpaws. The Astros' Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.21) has a 2.73 ERA in five career starts vs. the Royals. Tempted to take Houston without the runline (at -120), but -245 is a big number. |
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08-23-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Braves | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be only the third game in MLB history in which both teams enter on nine-game win streaks (or better) and the first since 1901. Perhaps small advantage Yankees in that their Sunday game was rained out so they will have a full bullpen -- but also lose the DH (Giancarlo Stanton is playing right field). Maybe it's a bad thing the Braves are at home? They are on a franchise-record 13-game road winning streak. I was going to take whichever team here was getting +1.5 on the runline. Do trust Yanks starter Jordan Montgomery a bit more than Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa. New York has won its past six vs. the National League, while the Braves are 1-9 in their past 10 at home vs. the AL. |
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08-23-21 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Makeup of Sunday's postponed game and the only matinee on Monday. The Red Sox should be able to tee off on Texas lefty Kolby Allard, who has a 5.59 ERA on the road and 5.11 in day games. Boston's Nathan Eovaldi leads Sox starters in wins (10), ERA (3.91), innings (138.0), and WHIP (1.20). He has been quite a bit better at home (3.24 ERA). |
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08-22-21 | Giants +6 v. Browns | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Broncos v. Seahawks +5.5 | 30-3 | Loss | -117 | 59 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Raiders v. Rams +7 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 59 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Colts v. Vikings -2.5 | 12-10 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We’re riding yet another NFL coach who realizes the importance of winning in the preseason, Mike Zimmer. Then again, between Zimmer’s 37-16 SU and 36-17 ATS career log in games against AFC foes, including 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS in NFLX games, he commands our attention. Toss in the fact that last season’s 28-11 loss at Indy in Week Two of the regular campaign contributed to |
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08-21-21 | Lions +6 v. Steelers | 20-26 | Push | 0 | 56 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Playing against any Game Two favorite of 4 or more points off a SUATS win versus an opponent off a SU loss is 25-7-1 (78%) ATS. |
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08-21-21 | Ravens -3 v. Panthers | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 4 m | Show |
Rating: 4 Unit NFLX Game of the Week The critical keys to successfully handicapping the NFL preseason |
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08-20-21 | Chiefs v. Cardinals +2.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units KC head coach Andy Reid has struggled in Game Two of the preseason, going 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS since 2009, including 1-5 ATS if coming off a win. Reid has also struggled against NFC West division foes during these fake games, including 0-6 ATS when not taking points. Flip the script and you’ll find an Arizona squad that stands 12-5 ATS at home when not favored in Game Two of the preseason. Play the percentages. Play the Cardinals. |
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08-20-21 | White Sox v. Rays +1.5 | 7-5 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I'm a White Sox fan so I hope they win (and probably would go to one of these games if the Trop wasn't such a dump and in an out-of-the-way location), but the Pale Hose are basically a .500 team on the road and the Rays are an absolute juggernaut at home. Yes, Tampa starting pitcher Michael Wacha has been pretty bad lately as Larry Hartstein mentioned on Early Edge in playing a Wacha Under prop, but the Rays have a very deep bullpen and I'm guessing Wacha has an incredibly short leash. On the flip side, the White Sox's Lucas Giolito has been wildly inconsistent. Frankly, whichever team was the underdog I would have taken at +1.5 in this one. Rays it is at -150. |
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08-20-21 | Twins v. Yankees -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota rookie lefty Charlie Barnes probably will be a bit intimidated in his first-ever start at Yankee Stadium, and he was roughed up in his lone road start so far (Cincinnati). On the flip side, Yanks pitcher Nestor Cortes Jr. continues to surprise and has a 1.45 home ERA. |
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08-19-21 | Patriots -1 v. Eagles | 35-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Eagles QB Jalen Hurts looked comfortable in his preseason debut last weekend, moving the ball efficiently down the field. So did Joe Flacco in reserve. And while New England's quarterbacks didn't have the same success as Philadelphia's, its running game did as rookie Rhamondre Stevenson went over 100 yards. The Eagles' defense still is a work in progress, and I would expect the Patriots to have a much better outcome in the second half. |
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08-19-21 | Angels v. Tigers +1.5 | 13-10 | Loss | -147 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even at a big price of -160, going to take Tigers +1.5 runline as a safety net (they probably win outright) only as I believe they will be -1.5 by the morning because the Angels scratched starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has been quite good. He's headed to the injured list. In his place will be lefty Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.12). He has been decent as a reliever this year but awful starting (7.22 ERA). The Tigers are five games over .500 vs. southpaws -- have won their past four -- and their rookie pitcher, Matt Manning, has been much better at home. |
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08-17-21 | Pirates v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units On Monday, the Dodgers did not light up the scoreboard, scoring just two runs against Pittsburgh. After completing a six-game road trip and a late Sunday flight from New York, that offensive struggle was expected. On Tuesday, L.A.'s bats should be back in order against the struggling Pirates and pitcher Will Crowe. Since the money line price is heavy, take the better price with the run line. Play the Dodgers. |
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08-16-21 | Padres v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We've said this over and over, but no team is better at home on the runline than Colorado. I get you can't really favor the Rockies over a very good Padres team, but I'll happily take +1.5 at only -125. San Diego pitcher Ryan Weathers has been absolutely obliterated in his past three starts overall and has a 9.00 ERA in three outings vs. Colorado -- which is above .500 vs. lefties. Rox starter Antonio Senzatela is nothing special but always pitches better in Denver. The Friars are 1-5 in their past six as road favorites. |
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08-16-21 | Indians +1.5 v. Twins | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Should the Indians even be underdogs? I'm not sure they should, but I'll take the +1.5 runline gift behind Cal Quantrill. While the Tribe lost his last outing, it wasn't Quantrill's fault as he allowed just two earned over six -- his sixth straight start allowing two earned or fewer. Meanwhile, Minnesota's Griffin Jax has a 6.14 ERA at home. The Twins are just 3-10 in their past 13 following a win. |
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08-14-21 | Bengals +6 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 97 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The motivation edge in this contest is clear. The invading Bengals bring plenty while the host Bucs have next to none. That’s been the case for defending Super Bowl champions, who have been money burners when laying points during the preseason, going 45-62-2 ATS since 1983, including 4-14 ATS since 2011. Then there is Tampa head coach Bruce Arians and his 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS career mark when laying points at home in these exhibition contests. We doubt seriously if we’ll see Tom Brady tonight, yet fully expect to see Joe Burrow operating behind a new offensive line as Cincy looks to meld together ASAP, knowing the Bengals are 4-1 SUATS versus NFC South foes in the preseason since 2011. And finally, game one preseason favorites of 6 or more points are 10-5 SU but only 5-10 ATS. |
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08-14-21 | Saints v. Ravens -2.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 198 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units No coach in the league makes winning a priority during the preseason more than John Harbaugh, especially right out of the gate. His outstanding 7-0 SUATS ledger at home in preseason openers – and the Black Birds’ 5-0 SUATS record in preseason openers when facing NFC South foes – confirms it. On the flip side, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton enters with a cold hand in the preseason, as evidenced by his 7-14 SU and 6-15 ATS mark in his last twenty-one preseason contests. Consider also that Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh is 17-0 SU and 15-1-1 ATS in the preseason since 2016. |
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08-14-21 | Broncos v. Vikings +2.5 | 33-6 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Mike Zimmer has coached the Vikings for seven preseasons, and he's won his opening game in all seven en route to putting together an impressive 20-5 record overall. And yet we're catching a point at home here, likely due to Minnesota's so-so depth behind Kirk Cousins while Denver brings in two fringe NFL starters batting to be named QB1. But it's not like the Vikings were stacked at QB in those previous 20 wins for Zimmer, so I'm trusting the excellent coach to give us a win here. |
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08-13-21 | Cowboys v. Cardinals -1.5 | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 38 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Looking at this matchup from a defensive perspective, the Arizona Cardinals have tremendous depth at all three levels. When you combine that with scheme continuity, you are more than likely going to get a consistent performance from their reserves, as you would from their starters. Offensively speaking, when dealing with the preseason, you're mainly dealing with the QB depth chart and the decision will come down to who do you trust the most. For the Cardinals we are likely to see Kyler Murray, albeit briefly, then Colt McCoy and then Chris Streveler. McCoy is a long-time vet, and Streveler has been in this offense for two full seasons, starting a game last year late in the season. I trust all three more than I trust the trio of Cowboy QBs we'll see in this game. |
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08-13-21 | Titans v. Falcons | 23-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating:2 Units The Falcons flipped from underdogs to favorites, and I agree with the move. Mike Vrabel is 2-6 ATS in the preseason since taking over in Nashville. Perhaps that's because he learned under Bill Belichick, who also doesn't care much about winning exhibition games. This is a much bigger night for Arthur Smith; the first-year Atlanta head coach spent nine years as a Titans assistant and wants to get off to a good start in front of the home crowd at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Although Matt Ryan won't play, rookie Kyle Pitts should. Look for Smith to showcase the new offense he's installed and feature Pitts, the highest-drafted tight end ever, for some potential big plays. |
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08-12-21 | Washington Football Team -2 v. Patriots | 13-22 | Loss | -107 | 49 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units "We're gonna play our guys." So says Washington coach Ron Rivera, which means the starters will get their uniforms dirty. One regular figuring to break a sweat is newly acquired QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Since taking over in D.C., Rivera is 7-5 in the preseason, and his teams have averaged 26 ppg in their openers — well above the norm. Who knows how coach Bill Belichick will dole out minutes for the Patriots, though his teams have gone 3-1 in each of the previous two preseasons. Mac Jones figures to accumulate some snaps, and rookie QBs often have a rough go in their debuts. Both coaches have declared their starting QB jobs open, and Fitz figures most likely of the four contenders on both teams to shine. |
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08-06-21 | Rangers v. A's -1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The A's rested Thursday while the Rangers dropped their third straight, 5-0 at home to the Angels, then had to fly west. Oakland is a 11-4 following an off day. Texas has scored four runs in its last three games, is 4-17 in its last 21 overall and starts Mike Foltynewicz, who has an 8.38 road ERA. Back Chris Bassitt and Oakland to get a convincing win, laying 1.5 runs at -125. |
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08-05-21 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | 3-16 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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08-05-21 | Red Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Let's try this again on Detroit after losing on the runline Wednesday. Boston lefty Martin Perez is really coming back to earth after a solid start to the season as he hasn't won in his past four and his July ERA was 6.26. Detroit has won five of its past seven at home vs. lefties. It's southpaw Tarik Skubal for the Tigers, and he has been better at home with a 3.74 ERA (also better during the day). The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Tigers at -135 on the RL. |
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08-03-21 | Braves v. Cardinals +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -135 | 2 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Atlanta has alternated wins and losses every game since the break, the longest such streak in MLB history. The Braves did lose their most recent game Sunday for what that's worth. They start Max Fried, who is 2-4 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. It's the Cards debut of Jon Lester, and he was solid in two starts vs. the Braves this year while with Washington. St. Louis has won 15 of its past 21 at home since June 9, the best home win percentage in the majors over that span. St. Louis’ .667 win pct. (10-5) on Tuesdays this season is tops in the NL. Not predicting an outright win here, but I'll take the runline at -135. |
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08-02-21 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 1 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Angels finally have announced their starting pitcher: Chris Rodriguez is being recalled but probably won't go more than a couple of innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 big-league innings and this will be the rookie's first start. I feel comfortable taking the Rangers at home on the runline behind Dane Dunning, who is 4-2 with a 2.58 ERA at home. Texas is actually pretty competent in its own ballpark |
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08-02-21 | Orioles v. Yankees -1.5 | 7-1 | Loss | -125 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Look for the Yankees to tee off on the Orioles' Jorge Lopez, who is 0-6 with a 7.43 ERA in his last nine starts. He owns a 7.23 career ERA versus New York, including an 8.44 ERA this season. Andrew Heaney makes his Yankees debut and is coming off two strong starts in which he allowed five earned runs over 13 innings while fanning 15. With D.J. LeMahieu expected back in the lineup, I'll back the Yanks -1.5 runs |
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08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Today is "Civic Holiday" in Canada so why this game is the lone matinee on the MLB schedule. I believe the Jays are going to have a massive home-field advantage this season with all the strict COVID protocols involving other teams. They will just want to get out of there because they are essentially under hotel lockdown (too bad because Toronto is awesome; I'd move there tomorrow if not so cold). Appears to be a huge pitching mismatch between Cleveland's Eli Morgan (1-7, 7.47) and Toronto's Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.04). Not much value on the Jays -260 on the money line, so we'll do the run line at -138. |
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07-30-21 | Twins +1.5 v. Cardinals | 1-5 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Twins will scratch ace Jose Berrios as he was traded to Toronto so I will jump the Cards at -150 on the runline while they are still moneyline underdogs. They won't be for long. I'd take St. Louis as a ML dog right now if I knew Nolan Arenado was playing, but he's in question with a bruised right forearm. Plus, not known yet whom Minnesota will start but I feel more than comfortable at the Cards +1.5 with it not being Berrios. Wade LeBlanc has been serviceable on the mound for the Redbirds. |
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07-29-21 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | 13-1 | Win | 100 | 2 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pretty even pitching matchup overall between lefties Hyun Jin Ryu and Eduardo Rodriguez, but Ryu has a 3.00 ERA this year in two starts vs. Boston and Rodriguez has a 5.73 in two vs. Toronto. What sways me toward the Toronto runline is that Sox WAR leader Rafael Devers (3.7 WAR, 27 HRs, 82 RBIs) isn't playing. He has been scorching hot of late. I almost never take outright MLB underdogs on the moneyline. |
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07-23-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | 2-6 | Loss | -185 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is the first time in his Yankees career that AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole is a betting underdog (see news feed), so I have to take NYY on the runline simply out of principle because I won't get Cole at +1.5 again. I'd probably take the Yanks on the moneyline if they weren't missing a few injured/COVID guys. While Cole struggled for a bit after the sticky stuff crackdown, he has dominated in his past two. New York should have won Thursday's opener at Fenway, but Aaron Boone for some reason didn't use closer Aroldis Chapman. Presuming he's available here. |
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07-22-21 | A's v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -131 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Should Seattle even be a home dog? Consider that starting pitcher Chris Flexen (9-3, 3.35) has a 1.77 ERA in his past seven starts overall and has a 1.76 ERA at T-Mobile Park, the third-best home ERA in the majors among qualified pitchers. The Mariners are 38-21 between Thursday and Sunday this season and way under .500 the other days. Yes, Oakland's Sean Manaea (6-6, 3.28) was brilliant in Seattle earlier this year, but he hasn't won since mid-June and has a 5.29 ERA this month. The Mariners are 7-1 in their last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter. We'll take the Seattle RL (-135) to be safe. |
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07-20-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks will aim to be the first team since the 2006 Miami Heat to go down 0-2 in the NBA Finals and win the next four games. The rising play of Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to go to new heights. Expect the Suns' letdown over Game 4’s final 90 seconds and squandering of a 16-point, first-quarter lead in Game 5 to haunt them. Look for Milwaukee to close out the NBA season with a championship. |
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07-16-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If oddsmakers are going to keep giving me great prices on the Rockies +1.5 at home, I'll keep taking them. Their home record of 31-17 (same home RL record, best in majors) would put the Rockies on a better than 100-win pace over 162 games at Coors. Colorado also is above .500 overall against lefties and faces Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias (not Walker Buehler as was originally listed; "Ferris" will go Saturday). Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela is always much better in Denver (3.75 ERA this year) than away (6.03 ERA). He has allowed three earned or fewer in five straight at Coors Field. |
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07-16-21 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Yankees | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We were on the Red Sox RL for Thursday's game, which of course was postponed due to COVID issues on the Yankees. As of now, they are planning to play today, but New York will be without two big bats in Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela, who will go on the COVID list. Boston pitcher Martin Perez has a 2.04 road ERA. New York's Domingo German has a 5.02 home ERA. Let's hit the RL again. |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Jae Crowder and Deandre Ayton were a combined 14 for 18 from the floor in Game 3 and the Suns still lost. Devin Booker was clearly off of his game, well-defended by Milwaukee. Booker has responded recently after bad games. Leading their series 2-0 against the Clippers, Phoenix was beaten by 14 in L.A. when Booker went 5 for 21 from the floor. In the next game, Booker led both teams in scoring with 25 in the 4-point Phoenix road win. Even with that history, Phoenix has to make some major adjustments. They were casual in the last game and when Ayton was in foul trouble, Giannis Antetokounmpo did whatever he wanted on the floor. Milwaukee took the first-quarter punch that the Suns delivered on Sunday and then they won the middle quarters by a total of 25 points. Jrue Holiday and P.J. Tucker were picking up the Phoenix guards early and often and that made the Suns desperate to fight the shot clock. The biggest question coming into this series was the health of Giannis. Well, all he did was put up 83 points and 25 boards in the last 2 games. Khris Middleton has yet to have an explosive game and when he plays well and scores, it opens it up for the entire squad. In Games 1 and 2 of the Bucks’ four playoff series this season, Middleton averaged 18 points, shot it at 38% from the floor and 29% from deep. In Games 3 and beyond this post season, Middleton has shot 46% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc and has averaged 26 points in 12 games. Reserve guard Bryn Forbes is also due to heat up. His shot has been off a lot but he has 5 double-figure games in this post season, including a pair of 22-point games vs. Miami. If the Bucks can again continue to go to the rack and force Ayton into foul trouble, Phoenix will once again be extremely vulnerable in the paint. Milwaukee was not only a +14 in points in the paint in the last game but they were a +10 in fast-break points. |
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07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Early money has come in on the Bucks and I agree with it. They already have overcome a 2-0 series deficit in the playoffs, against Brooklyn, so the belief is there. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday aren't going to combine for 12-of-37 shooting in Milwaukee, like they did in Game 2 in Phoenix. After two full days of rest, they'll bounce back in front of their raucous fans and give Giannis Antetokounmpo the help he needs. Look for Milwaukee, with its season on the line, to dominate inside and try to get DeAndre Ayton in foul trouble. The Suns are thin inside with Dario Saric and Torrey Craig injured. |
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07-10-21 | Rockies +1.5 v. Padres | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Rockies are 7-34 on the road. But Arizona had lost something like 26 of 27 road games before winning in Dodger Stadium last night at odds of +$2.55. Ya’ gotta do what ya’ gotta do and German Marquez has been getting done what he’s had to get done. The Rockies have won his last four starts and he’s pitched 6, 8, 9 and 6 innings in them, allowing a total of only 9 hits in these 29 innings. The Padres’ Joe Musgrove has allowed 11 hits and 10 runs in his last two starts, with 7-4 K-BB in those 11 innings. Marquez had 11-1 K-BB in 6 innings six days ago. |
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07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4.5 | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These series usually come down to adjustments as the games continue. Milwaukee Coach Budenholzer failed to make any defensive adjustment for a sustained period of time in Game One. The Suns ate up Brook Lopez when he was forced to switch and attempt to guard either Devin Booker or Chris Paul. Offensively Lopez shot it well and was a disrupter in the paint but he was clearly exposed on D. You know that Giannis Antetokounmpo is not right when 3 of the Milwaukee starters had more shot attempts. Giannis played with heart but for the most part the explosiveness was not there. Listening to Giannis after the game, it became evident that the injury was on his mind: “The medical staff cleared me to play and out there I had my balance. Thought my knee was stable…at the end of the day, I’m out there...I can run. I can jump. I can set screens. I can rebound the ball. I can do stuff.” The ball boy can set screens, rebound in shoot arounds and do stuff. Giannis doesn’t sound like he thinks he can dominate games like he has in the past. Khris Middleton played well for the Bucks, clearly was the prime mover on offense and he was he was the aggressor even when Giannis was open. Dario Saric is gone with a torn ACL and the Suns are already light with big men. Frank Kaminsky could get more minutes and the ‘Tank’ has averaged double figures in 3 of his 6 years in the league and has shot it at 35% from beyond the arc in his career. The Suns will likely again rely on small ball and if Milwaukee doesn’t devise a way to keep Deandre Ayton off the glass, they will again be in trouble. Ayton was a vacuum cleaner off the glass in Game One. He only missed 2 shots from the field and was perfect from the free-throw line. Basically the Suns held Milwaukee in check as far as transition is concerned and Phoenix pushed the ball, something Chris Paul talked about after the game. Milwaukee was 56% from the charity stripe, Phoenix was 25 for 26 when they got free shots at the line. That could be the key to the entire series. |
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07-08-21 | Dodgers v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-1 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This year, Alcantara has been better with backup catcher Sandy Leon (1.61 ERA in five games) than with starter Jorge Alfaro (2.67 ERA in 10 games). In addition, it bodes well for Alcantara that the Thursday contest is a matinee since he has been better in seven games during the day (3-2, 1.51 ERA) than in 11 games at night (2-5, 4.02 ERA). Then again, Urias also has a better ERA during the day (2.91) than at night (3.57). The Marlins, who beat the Dodgers 9-6 on Wednesday on Jesus Aguilar's three-run, ninth-inning homer, are 4-1 since losing to the Atlanta Braves 1-0 on Friday. Marlins starter Pablo Lopez was ejected just one pitch into that game after hitting Ronald Acuna Jr. with a pitch. After that pitch, Miami's relievers had to eat up the innings missed by Lopez, and that issue had a ripple effect, causing the Marlins bullpen to become overworked. Despite that fact, Miami's bullpen has been brilliant since that point, posting a stellar 2.61 ERA in 31 innings. The Marlins are now 4-2 against the Dodgers this year, with one game left in the season series. |
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07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a fairly quick turnaround for the Bucks against the fully-healthy Suns. The home team in Game 1 of the NBA Finals has won seven straight by an average of 13.8 points. In addition, the home team is 15-1 straight-up in the last 16 NBA Finals openers. This likely won't be a quick series, but in Game 1, I expect the Bucks to have significant difficulty adjusting. They got every shot they wanted against the Hawks' porous defense, and now they're facing a rested Suns team that ranked seventh in defensive efficiency. |