Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-02-22 | North Texas +8.5 v. UTSA | 27-48 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Chaparral Birds enter on a 9-game win streak following a 1-2 start, but have cashed a ticket in just four of those games. The fact that UTSA has been double-digit chalk in six of its last seven contests makes the opening line of -8.5 look mighty appealing against a North Texas team that lost on this field six weeks ago, 31-21. However, sub .600 teams in conference championship games seeking same-season revenge are 6-0 ATS since 2000. The Eagles also own a profitable 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS mark against foes who surrender 22 or more PPG this season. While the game host’s 7-2 and 6-3 ATS success in C-USA title bouts points to the Roadrunners, consider that same-season revengers taking on opponents coming off a win who scored 34-plus points in their last contest, are 10-2 ATS since 2010. That, and UNT’s 22-point demolition of UTSA last year – Traylor’s worst loss with the Roadrunners – is enough to put us on the dudes from Denton tonight. |
|||||||
12-02-22 | Senators v. Rangers -172 | 3-2 | Loss | -172 | 5 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Senators are looking to even up the score and pull off the upset on the road. The problem is that the Rangers have looked promising and look to control this game from the opening puck drop. The Rangers should find the back of the net at will against a Senators defense that is allowing 3.36 goals per game with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanjad, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Rangers, who allow only 2.79 goals per game, should also limit the Senators' offense with Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net while goaltender Igor Shesterkin blanks shots on the net. The Rangers should win the game with a dominant performance on their home ice. |
|||||||
12-02-22 | Wake Forest v. Clemson -150 | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I am going to argue that Clemson is undervalued in the betting market right now due to Hall’s injury that caused him to miss some time early in the season. He is not only one of the best players on the team, but he is also among the best players in the conference. His performance earlier this week showed flashes of his vintage self, which does not bode well for Wake Forest on Friday. Clemson also comes into this contest on an eight-game home winning streak, and the Tigers have won nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams. They have also won nine straight at home in this series, making them the clear pick |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Raptors -2.5 v. Pelicans | 108-126 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is a tough spot for the Pelicans. While they are home, where they have only lost three times all year, they face a suddenly healthy and surging Raptors team that has back all of its key players. The big boost is Siakam, who is off the injured list. But also, Scottie Barnes and VanVleet, who have spent time on the shelf, are back in the fold. We haven't seen that much of a fully loaded Raptors team, so look for this unit to do some damage. Meanwhile, the Pelicans have been bitten by the injury bug with McCollum out and Ingram questionable. So, while New Orleans is a tough place to play, I like the Raptors to cover here. Take the Raptors. |
|||||||
11-30-22 | Ohio State +5.5 v. Duke | 72-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Ohio State Buckeyes are the real deal. Their only loss of the season occurred against a ranked San Diego State team. They beat Cincinnati 81-53 and defeated #21 Texas Tech 80-73 on Wednesday. Offensively, the Buckeyes are more efficient than Duke, averaging 115.9 points per 100 possessions, ranking them sixth in DI compared to Duke with 112.3 points. The Buckeyes' defense has also been spectacular. Duke will take a lot of threes, averaging 22.4 three-point attempts per game and the Buckeyes are limiting foes to 26% shooting from deep. Duke has been inconsistent in the offensive end. They only scored 56 points in Sunday's loss and have yet to prove themselves offensively. They are shooting a poor 41.7% and are relying heavily on the defense. |
|||||||
11-29-22 | Charlotte v. Davidson UNDER 127.5 | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
|||||||
11-29-22 | Jackson State v. Miami-OH -4.5 | 78-95 | Win | 100 | 1 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
|||||||
11-28-22 | Pittsburgh v. Northwestern -7 | 87-58 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Pitt may have three straight wins coming in but they are facing a Northwestern team that is battle tested in the early going. The Wildcats have beaten Georgetown on the road and took Auburn to the limit before falling a point short in Cancun. While Northwestern does miss the presence of Pete Nance, the fact remains that they have plenty of returning talent, led by Buie and Audige, to keep the Wildcats in games. The major difference we’ve seen between these teams so far is what we’ve seen on the defensive end of the floor. Pitt, while they have been average, has to contend with a Wildcats team that has stifled opposing teams to the tune of 32.1% shooting from the floor, which is second in the nation. Look for Northwestern’s defense, and home-court advantage, to be the difference in this one. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Senators v. Kings -148 | 3-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Senators finally got a monkey off their backs with that victory on Friday, but they have not been good on the road. While the Kings have not been great at home, Ottawa is 2-6-1 on the road, however, they have won two of their last four road contests, so this club may be finding some answers. The challenge is that they need outstanding goaltending to win on the road. The team is 2-4 on the road in November and allowed 17 goals in the four losses, but only two total goals in the wins. They are not able to find consistent goaltending to shut opponents down and L.A. is solid enough offensively to come away with a two-goal victory. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Packers +6.5 v. Eagles | Top | 33-40 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Prime Time Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units The ‘return to the norm’ is simply too strong to overcome as ATS losses begin to pile up with each passing week. With it the Eagles enter this week on a 3-game ATS losing skid while having been out yarded in half of their last six games. Granted, the Packers are facing demons of their own, but Aaron Rodgers thrives in these situations, and we expect nothing less today. With it the Pack checks in 7-1 ATS in game versus .750 or greater foes the past two seasons, as well as 8-2 ATS when coming off a Thursday contest. Meanwhile, the Green Birds enter 1-8 ATS versus foes off a SU home favorite loss, and just 3-8 ATS against foes coming off a Thursday game. To cap it off, Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers is 10-1 SUATS as a dog when the Packers are coming off a SU favorite loss, including 7-0 ATS versus .700 or greater foes. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Mavs v. Bucks -7 | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Mavericks have struggled on the road and are having to play in back-to-back nights. They have gone 1-8 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a winning record and are winners of just one of their last six games ATS when playing on zero day’s rest. This does not even include the fact that the Mavericks play in Canada, then have to cross the border to take on Milwaukee. This is not a good scenario at all. The Bucks have been incredible at home this season. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record on the road and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee has the benefit of an extra day off and are at home. Should be a big night for the Bucks. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Wizards v. Celtics -7.5 | 121-130 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston has been a team on fire in the early going this season as the transition from Ime Udoka to Joe Mazzulla behind the bench has been seamless. The Celtics continue to pile up gaudy offensive numbers as the addition of Brogdon brought in another scoring option in the backcourt. Washington has been good on the defensive end of the floor but their offensive struggles are hard to overcome. Ranking second-worst in the league in scoring more than a month into the season is a tough sell, especially when you’re facing the league’s top scoring attack. Playing at home with all the weapons that they boast, you have to give the upper hand to the Celtics in this one. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | 76ers v. Magic -125 | 133-103 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Philadelphia 76ers defeated Orlando in the opening game of this 2-game set over a three-day period but will find it hard to win two straight on the road against the same opponent in such a short span. Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs will step up their game on Sunday at home against the 76ers. Even if Philadelphia’s Joel Embiid can go today, do not expect the big man to be 100%. Orlando lost by only eight points to Philadelphia on Friday and will reverse that today at home against the 76ers. Philadelphia has failed to cover the spread in 13 of its last 19 games played on the road. Orlando likes to play at home today, covering the spread in six of the last nine games in that situation. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I like the Knicks here bouncing back from a bad home loss against the Blazers, who played without Damian Lillard. The Knicks committed 35 fouls and that was the difference. The Grizzlies are a very physical team, but the Knicks have the size to match them inside, especially with Mitchell Robinson back. I just think this is a good spot for the Knicks, at home, after a bad loss, playing a Grizzlies team that hit the road after a big win over a divisional rival. The Grizzlies are 7-12 against the spread this season and have lost 4 of their last 6 ATS. Take the Knicks here to cover. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Raiders v. Seahawks -3.5 | 40-34 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units If Carroll can guide this team to 10 or more wins and make the postseason sans Wilson and Wagner, he’s almost certain to win Coach of the Year.” Fast forward from June to November and 6-4 Seattle is more than halfway to the 10-win season few thought they could achieve. While the Seahawks have been a major surprise, the 3-7 Raiders have dutifully taken their place as one of the worst teams in the NFL, disappointing eyepatch fans everywhere as they stumble to their fourth losing season in the last five years. Things won’t get any easier after today, either, with Vegas lining up against New England, San Francisco, and Kansas City down the stretch. When it comes to today’s contest, Las Vegas has run out of luck in its last fi ve meetings with NFC West teams, going 1-4 ATS. Not so for Seattle, who boasts a 7-1 ATS record off a SUATS loss versus foes off a SUATS win. It’s not a stretch to suggest that these two are headed in opposite directions, and we won’t be on the one heading south. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Chargers -138 v. Cardinals | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Stamina. It’s something that enables some athletes to keep going when others fall by the wayside. And it’s clearly something that Kliff Kingsbury has not enjoyed in his head coaching career. Kingsbury’s first seven games of the season with Texas Tech: .643, with Arizona .661... rest of the season with Texas Tech .242, with Arizona .323. And that summarizes the state of the Cardinals this season. Obviously, someone has got to go, and it’s either going to be Kingsbury or the eternal malcontent QB Kyler Murray, engineer of the biggest heist this side of Russell Wilson’s robbery of the Denver Broncos. The NFL has been in hot pursuit of Murray as a face of the sport, hoping to prove that someone who can’t see over his offensive linemen can be a star. But the former Oklahoma QB can’t seem to make it to the end of a season without injury or subpar play, and after missing two weeks with a hamstring problem, his return will be too little too late for the 4-7 Cardinals. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Warriors v. Wolves +2 | 137-114 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden State Warriors have been horrible on the road this season, as they are (1-9). I see their struggles continuing in this one, as they will allow the Timberwolves to score enough points to cover this spread. Golden State is currently allowing the 28th most points per game and they have the 21st-highest adjusted defensive rating in the league. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | North Carolina +1.5 v. Alabama | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tar Heels had their five-game winning streak snapped by the Pilots in their last game. They will try to bounce back from the loss with a win over the Crimson Tide, which will give them their sixth win in their last seven games. North Carolina is averaging 79.5 points per game. They scored 65 points in their last game, making 44 percent of their field goals and 16.7 percent of their three-pointers. R.J. Davis led the Tar Heels with 15 points and three rebounds. Armando Bacot finished with 13 points and nine rebounds, while Caleb Love added 12 points and three assists. North Carolina has played well defensively, giving up 70.5 points per game. They gave up 70 points in their last game and will need a similar effort if they want to get the win. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +110 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 35 m | Show |
AFC Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The ground game has really come to the Bengals aid of late as Nate Davis of the USA TODAY notes that the Bengals one-two running back punch of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, former teammates at Oklahoma, have eight TDs the past two games. But the hottest team in the league – read: Tennessee – also know they are 6-0 ATS off an away game versus a foe also off an away game. They are also 5-0 ATS off a Thursday game. Finally, Tennessee is 12-0 ATS off an ATS win versus a foe off an ATS win. |
|||||||
11-27-22 | Falcons v. Commanders -3.5 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Commanders are 6-1 ATS when coming off consecutive SUATS wins as well as 4-1 ATS versus NFC South opponents. Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds enter 4-9 SU and 3-10 ATS at home when coming off a win, and are 0-7 ATS in Game Twelve of the campaign. They are also riding a 10-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak, currently the longest in the NFL. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Jazz v. Suns -7 | 112-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Utah is playing their third game in four nights here and this marks their 14th road game this season against eight home games. The Jazz have sputtered on the defensive end of the floor lately and missing Conley is a big blow as he is a floor general on both ends. Phoenix has dealt with their share of injuries as well though Paul could be on the comeback trail in the near future. The Suns have the edge of playing at home the last couple of games so there is no travel involved for them leading into this contest. Phoenix has quality depth and they have been stellar at home this season: that’s enough to get by a tired, banged-up Utah squad here as they even the season series. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC -180 | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The host in this series has covered seven of the last eight meetings. The loss of USC running back Travis Dye in the Colorado game was every bit as sad and unfortunate as the injury Hendon Hooker suffered in Tennessee’s game on Saturday, but senior Austin Jones stepped in ably against UCLA, rushing for 120 yards and 2 TDs. In addition, All-American WR Jordan Addison returned from his own knee injury with a bang, catching 11 balls for 178 yards. The 13th-ranked Irish looked unstoppable while shutting out Boston College last week, and smoked Clemson two weeks earlier, but remember, they have losses this season to both Marshall and Stanford. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | East Carolina +4.5 v. Old Dominion | 50-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pirates enter with a far better as they have won 5 games and only dropped one this year. The Monarchs are 3-3 this year and are coming off a close loss to Davidson this week. Eastern Carolina is led by Javon Small, who is scoring over 20 points per game. East Carolina has shown that they score big with four of their fives wins coming by double figures. The Monarchs have lost two of their three losses by single digits. The scoring ability of the Pirates will keep them in this game and show that they can win on the road. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Blues v. Panthers -190 | 5-4 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There is definitely a difference in the offensive production this season as St. Louis is scoring 2.84 goals while Florida is averaging 3.4 goals m thus far. Thomas Greiss and Spencer Knight are going to be in the net and obviously Knight is the better player on the ice at the position and should dominate in this game. All in all, go with the Florida Panthers |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +6.5 | Top | 48-51 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 4 Units App State is 2-7 ATS in lined games, 1-7 ATS as a favorite (!) and 0-4 ATS when coming off a victory. Georgia Southern is the opposite going 4-0 ATS in regular season finales and a sturdy 5-1 ATS in last home games. Finally, Eagles Coach Helton has never lost four straight (even though Southern Cal die-hards thought he lost every game there) and is 6-2 SUATS when coming off consecutive losses. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Iowa State +10 v. TCU | Top | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Mont Rating: 5 Units Iowa State has out-yarded each of their last five opponents, including a 422-246 margin over Texas Tech in last week’s 14-10 loss. They have also held eight opponents to a season-low – or 2nd low – yardage this year, and that is just enough to apply the slip-knot on the TCU noose. When you consider that the Clones are 5-1 ATS in this series over the last six matchups (3-0 ATS as a dog), and that they own a 6-0 ATS mark as conference road dogs, you’ll find your winner. Finally, playing on any CFB dog off two losses, both as a favorite, if they allow 21 or fewer PPG and they are facing an undefeated opponent is 13-2-1 since 1980. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +2.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Oregon is only 8-15 ATS in this series when the Beavers are playing with revenge, including 1-5 ATS as a single-digit favorite. Oregon State has been formidable of late as a home dog of 7 or fewer points, going 6-1 ATS the last seven. Even more amazing is the fact that OSU has gone 9-1 SU and 9-0 ATS in its last ten home games, plus the Beavers have held their last three foes to season-low yards. Finally, head coach Jonathan Smith is 19-11 ATS in games where the Beavers are seeking revenge, including 6-0 SUATS the last six games. |
|||||||
11-26-22 | New Mexico State v. Liberty -24 | 49-14 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Freeze loves to catch fish in a barrel with hand grenades: 18-2 SU and 14-3 ATS versus sub .333 opponents by an average of 46-13. This includes a perfect 7-0 SUATS in lined games. This batch of ricin-infused tea also features an evil 18-6-1 ATS mark against teams coming off a SUATS loss, which is a specialty of all college football teams coming out of New Mexico. NMSU is 0-10 ATS off a dog loss while playing a foe off a SU favorite loss and 1-11 ATS in the last 12 Game 11’s. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Jets v. Stars -155 | 5-4 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The home team has had their way between these teams this season. Dallas defeated Winnipeg at home on October 17, 4-1, and the Jets responded with a 5-1 victory at home on November 9. That has given the home team nine victories out of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Dallas also enters this game playing exceptionally well. They have earned points in six straight games, going 4-0-2 in that span. In fact, the club is 7-2-2 in November. They are getting outstanding performances across all four lines, and the goaltending has been spectacular. This is only the fourth game on the road this month for the Jets, and they are 1-2-0 through the first three, with the only victory being in overtime win against Seattle. Not exactly stellar performances. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Blues v. Lightning -170 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Lightning are having a strong season behind an offense that is scoring 3.37 goals per game with 21 goals in the last five games. Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point have scored 26 goals and 41 assists to lead the top two lines but the rest of the offense has been great as well. Alex Killorn, Nick Paul, and Brandon Hagel have combined for 19 goals and 22 assists while defensemen Mikhail Sergachev and Victor Hedman have added five goals and 23 assists from the point to overwhelm opposing defenses. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Iowa -7.5 v. Clemson | 74-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes have some of the best offensive stats in college basketball. While they clearly haven't been playing world-beaters so far, what's even more impressive than their record is their execution. Individual performance may vary game-to-game, but a well-coached team that executes well will always put itself in a position to succeed. It's also a game between a great shooting team versus a squad that sucks at defending the three-point line. Iowa is 4-0 ATS this season and Clemson is 1-4. Bet the trend and take Iowa to cover. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Arkansas v. Missouri +4 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman’s goal is to avoid the pangs of a letdown versus Mizzou, but the fact is the Hogs bring a 4-11 SU and 2-13 ATS record into this contest when coming off a SU upset win, including 0-7 ATS versus foes coming off a win. Sitting at 5-6 in their final regular season game, the Tigers are a ‘Shaky 16’ team this week as it’s win or you’re not in time for Missouri. The good news for MU head coach Eli Drinkwitz, who just signed a contract extension several weeks ago, is the host in this series is 7-1 ATS. Drinkwitz also stands 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS versus a foe coming off a SU underdog win, as well as 3-0 SUATS versus sub .560 foe coming off a SU underdog win. Finally consider that Missouri is 9-3 ATS in Last Home Games versus foes coming off a win, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a win of fewer than 20 points. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | NC State v. North Carolina -6 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Simply expect the unexpected when Tars perform. Led GaTech 17-0 in 2nd, but no pts thereafter for UNC's 4th-ranked "O" vs GT's 95th-ranked "D". 'Pack on 1-7 ATS slide, & winless ATS away. In addition, 'Pack is 2-9 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and 2-9 ATS as conference dogs of 8 or fewer points. Can't run, & Finley not the answer. Maye & Co bounce back. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It is hard to go against a team that is undefeated at home this season, and Boston has shown no signs of slowing up. The Bruins have completely shut down opponents at TD Garden this month, allowing a single goal in four of their five home contests and have allowed six total goals in five games. That is just ridiculous and is a primary reason why opponents have no chance of winning in Boston. In fact, the team has won all five of their games by at least two goals. Carolina enters this contest slumping. They are winless in their last four, producing six total goals in that span. That is not a good combination against the Boston team that is shutting opponents down while lighting up opposing goaltenders. |
|||||||
11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units BU is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off a loss and its opponent is coming off a win. The Bears are also 7-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, plus they outgained TCU, 501-442, in last week’s last-second loss to the charmed Frogs. For more anti-Longhorn ammunition, defending Big 12 champs like Baylor are 10-5 ATS when coming off two losses. Yes, the Texas offense has looked downright scary lately, scoring 34.3 PPG in its last six outings, but the Longhorns are 4-8 SUATS in LHGs, including 0-4 SUATS when coming off a double-digit win. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Patriots +2.5 v. Vikings | 26-33 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Minnesota was a team that I had overrated heading into its abysmal showing against Dallas, although that turned out worse than anyone could have imagined. The Vikings’ stats do not match their record, as they have actually been outscored overall this season. Plenty of bettors are going to look at the records of these teams and back Minnesota, but I like New England here. The Patriots have quietly been playing very solid football, covering the spread in six of its last seven games. They have the much better defense and have won five straight meetings between these teams. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Connecticut -3 v. Oregon | 83-59 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Huskies have won five straight games. They played well offensively in those games, scoring more than 87 points per game while making over 51 percent of their shots. They do a good job finding the open man and they’re aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They have also done a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Ducks a lot of easy scoring opportunities. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Ole Miss | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While the visiting Bulldogs haven’t done much better down the stretch, a litany of strong trends support Mississippi State in this battle for the 3rd spot in the SEC West between these intrastate rivals. While Ole Miss owns the better record overall at 8-3 / 4-3 compared to the 7-4 / 3-4 Bulldogs, the Rebels are just 1-6 ATS as conference favorites of fewer than 7 points, and 1-5 ATS in LHGs. Across the field, MSU head coach Mike Leach is backed by an 8-0 ATS mark when playing with double conference revenge, a 10-1 ATS record after an unlined home game, and a 6-1 ATS skein as a series visitor versus Ole Miss. MSU looks to improve to 5-1 ATS as an SEC dog of 8 or fewer points. |
|||||||
11-24-22 | Giants +10.5 v. Cowboys | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Dallas is 31-22-1 all-time on Thanksgiving Day, but only 4-7 SU and 1-10 ATS the last eleven years – including 0-3 SUATS the last three. Meanwhile, the Cowboys return home as an annual Turkey Day host, on the heels of last week’s 37-point win at Minnesota. It was the largest road win in Dallas’ history – and you know how we love fading teams coming off record setting performances. The Boys have now won 11 of their last 12 division games. However, the Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games when coming off a SU favorite loss. To clinch it, consider that winning NFL division road dogs with triple revenge from losses in their last three meetings are 12-1 ATS when facing a foe coming off a win of 7 or more points. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Nets v. Raptors -130 | 112-98 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have covered the spread in 64% (14-8) of their games when they have the rest advantage dating back to last season, and Brooklyn is just 4-14 against the spread when playing on a back-to-back over the same stretch. I am riding with the Raptors. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Tennessee -6.5 v. Butler | 71-45 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Volunteers are a tough team and they have been sound defensively in the early going. Tennessee will shoot the ball better than we’ve seen so far and it’s tough to have faith in Butler given the fact that they struggled mightily against Penn State. The Volunteers make life extremely difficult for the Bulldogs and that gets them to the semifinals. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Wolves v. Pacers +2 | 115-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Timberwolves have the 16th-highest adjusted defensive rating, as they will struggle to consistently slow down the Pacers. Indiana is the better offensive team in this matchup, and they have shown that they will continue to contest shots inside the paint. They are holding their opponents to the seventh-lowest field goal shooting percentage, as they don't give up many easy looks around the basket. They will make consistent stops and keep the Timberwolves from scoring enough points to cover. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | 76ers +5.5 v. Hornets | 101-107 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I understand that Philly is without the majority of their superstars, but I still see them being a better team than the Hornets. Charlotte has had a horrible start to the year and if Lamelo Ball can't get back on the court, then I don't see this season turning around. Ball is listed as questionable for this game, but I'm not worried about him if he returns. The Hornets will be extra cautious with him, as the other Charlotte players will have to continue to carry the load. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Jets +1.5 v. Wild | 1-6 | Loss | -185 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jets have won three of their last four games and three of their last five road games. They are playing well offensively, scoring three or more goals in three of their last four games. They have also played well on special teams, converting 20 percent of their power play opportunities. The Wild have played well defensively this season, but they struggled in recent games, giving up nine goals in their last three games, and will have a hard time slowing down the Jets. |
|||||||
11-23-22 | Flames +1.5 v. Penguins | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins are looking to win on their home ice but the Flames look to extend their winning streak to three games and control this game on both ends of the ice. The Flames, who average 3.17 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Nazem Kadri, Elias Lindholm, and the rest of the forward unit controlling the puck in the offensive zone and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Flames should also limit the Penguins' offense with Nikita Zadorov and MacKenzie Weegar creating turnovers at the blue line and limiting the Penguins from establishing an offensive zone presence while goaltender Jacob Markstrom makes plenty of big saves in the net. |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Rangers v. Kings +105 | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings are currently enjoying one of their best starts to a season in the last few years, largely due to their solid domestic form, which most recently has brought in five consecutive wins. The Rangers have triumphed on four of their past six travels, but have been quite inconsistent overall, recording just three victories in their previous eight outings, going just 2-5 in their past seven matchups following a win. They have also managed to beat the Kings on just two of the most recent seven occasions, dropping their very last four trips to L.A.. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is 7-2 in its past nine Tuesday games and has been a force against teams from the Metropolitan Division, winning 10 of the previous 14 meetings. |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Lakers v. Suns -10 | 105-115 | Push | 0 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Phoenix has dominated Los Angeles of late, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven encounters. Also, each of the Suns’ last six victories over the Lakers has come by ten or more points. The Suns are 8-2 ATS in their previous ten contests versus the Western Conference, while the Lakers haven’t covered in five consecutive outings on the road. |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sixers are dealing with a ton of injuries and they are only scoring the 28th most points per game. They will continue to struggle in this one and the Nets will be able to keep this game close. Philadelphia won't play well without their stars, as the 76ers will continue to slide in the wrong direction. |
|||||||
11-22-22 | Bowling Green +16.5 v. Notre Dame | 66-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Notre Dame has been favored by double-digits in each game this season but it has yet to cover a spread, all while facing the 312th strongest schedule according to KenPom. The Irish should also win this game outright, but it will be important to Bowling Green what the final score is in this game. For Notre Dame, this is just another game, but playing the Fighting Irish will motivate the Falcons. Bowling Green likes to get up and down the court quickly, rating 55th in adjusted tempo, while Notre Dame is 333rd. With the fast-paced style of play, the Falcons should be able to limit the effectiveness of Irish big man Nate Laszewski at times. Take Bowling Green to cover. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Jazz v. Clippers -155 | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers went just 8-for-33 from beyond the 3-point line in that eight-point loss to the Jazz three weeks ago, losing the fourth quarter 26-17. I’m expecting a much better display this time around, especially because the Clippers just dropped 21 triples on the Spurs. Even if Paul George misses Monday’s game, the Clippers will have enough firepower to outlast the Jazz, who’ll probably miss Mike Conley (10.2 PPG, 7.9 APG). Utah is 1-5 ATS in its previous six road games against the Clippers, who have gone 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Golden Knights v. Canucks +140 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knights have managed to gather just a single victory in their most recent four contests. And while their road form has been exceptional throughout the whole current campaign (8-1-1, including 6-0-1 on the last seven travels), the ‘Nucks themselves have done great when playing on own ice, notching a 3-1-1 showing on the past five occasions. Vancouver has also gone with 11 victories in its previous 13 outings played on a two days rest, while Vegas has dropped a whopping seven of its most recent 10 games contested on Mondays. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals +10.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Arizona’s Kliff Kingsbury is the only coach in NFL history with a better outright record as a dog than as a favorite with the Cardinals, going 17-16-1 SU taking points and 11-14 outright laying them. McCoy is 3-0 ATS as a dog as a starting quarterback for Arizona – winning all three games outright. Murray is 3-1-1 ATS in his starts in this series, including 2-0-1 ATS as a dog. On the Niners side, Frisco is 8-1 ATS on Mondays in division games, but only 1-7- 1 ATS as of late in this series. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans -9.5 | 83-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is virtually unbackable away from home right now. The Warriors had lost all straight of their road games prior to Sunday’s win, but it took a ridiculous performance from Thompson and Curry to get the job done against a bad team. They are now having to play on the back-end of a back-to-back against a New Orleans squad that is expected to have its best player back on the court. This is not a good scheduling spot for Golden State, while New Orleans is rested and motivated coming into this matchup. The Pelicans are also the more balanced team, as they are good on both ends of the court. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Hawks v. Cavs -130 | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is scoring the eighth most points per game and they have the 10th-highest team shooting percentage. They will continue to consistently score on the Hawks throughout this game, as they have continued to give up points this season. According to dunskandthrees.com, the Hawks have the 15th lowest adjusted defensive rating and they are giving up the 18th most points per game. Mitchell has been on fire and I see him carrying his team to victory in this one. The Cavaliers are also (5-1) at home this season, as they have continued to play well in front of their own fans. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Oilers v. Devils -148 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Devils have won 12 straight games and seven of their last eight home games. They have been on a roll offensively, scoring at least four goals in eight of their last 10 games. They have also played well on special teams, converting over 20 percent of their power play opportunities. The Oilers are one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to killing penalties and they gave up at least three goals in eight of their last nine games, so expect them to have a hard time slowing down the Devils. The Oilers have lost five of their last eight games and split their last four road games. |
|||||||
11-21-22 | Louisville v. Arkansas -15 | 54-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 units The Cardinals were favored to win their first three games, but they lost all three games by one point. Their offense has been their biggest problem so far, with the team scoring less than 70 points per game while making less than 45 percent of their shots. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Razorbacks and they’re very careless with the ball, which will be a problem against the Razorbacks, who are averaging more than 12 steals per game. They are facing a defense that held its first three opponents under 60 points and will have a hard time scoring against them, so go with Arkansas to cover the spread. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Chiefs -5 v. Chargers | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Chiefs enter this fray knowing they are 14-3 SU in the last 17 games in this series. Meanwhile, KC is 10-3 ATS as division road chalk of 10 or fewer points, while LA is 3-9 ATS the last dozen games as a home dog. We’d love to hop on the arm of Justin Herbert as he looks to avenge a 27-24 loss at Arrowhead in Game Two this season, but the fact of the matter is both Herbert and the Chargers are struggling, and the Bolts are only 4-38 ATS as home dogs in games they lose outright. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Warriors v. Rockets +10.5 | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Warriors have not shown proper respect to weaker opponents, resulting in losses to the Hornets, Pistons, Magic, and Kings outright as a road favorite. It's hard to love the Rockets, but this will be a game in which their young players will give their best effort. Golden State should win its first road game of the year this season, but they cannot be trusted to cover as a double-digit road favorite. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Hornets v. Wizards -5.5 | 102-106 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units These are two teams heading in opposite directions right now. The Hornets are playing terrible basketball, losers of 1o of their last 11 games, and their defense has been a problem. Also, it seems as if LaMelo Ball is banged up again and is questionable for Sunday's game. The Wizards quietly have a pretty balanced solid team that has the ability to hurt you inside and outside, and has improved their defensive capabilities, ranking 8th in the league in points allowed. Plus, the Hornets are 1-8-1 against the spread in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-4 against the spread in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning straight up record. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Baylor -130 v. UCLA | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units With Keyonte George, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer all leading the way, this is the chance for the Bears to stamp their mark on the season early, and if they can bring their all around game that we saw in their first three performances this year, then there's few teams in college basketball with the capability of slowing them down. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
Divisional Game of the Month Rating: 5 Units The Bengals are 8-0 ATS when coming off a non-division game when facing a foe that is also coming off a non-division game, as well as 7-0 ATS off a win versus foes coming off a win. And then there is Burrow, who brings a 9-1 SUATS career record into this game when facing an NFL opponent coming off a SUATS win. Meanwhile, the Black-and-Gold are at home following last week’s home win with a 0-4 SUATS ledger at home when coming a home game. Mike Tomlin’s troops are also 1-8 ITS (In The Stats) this season while being outgained an average -85 YPG. Finally the Bengals are 25-1 ATS in their last twenty-six division games they win outright |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Mike McCarthy, not the sharpest knife in the NFL coaches’ drawer, decided to go for it on fourth-and-3 from Green Bay’s 35-yard line in overtime rather than kicking a field goal to go up by 3 points. The Cowboys failed to convert and the Packers then proceeded to kick the game-winning field goal. Another knock at the door is Dallas’ 3-10 ATS log in this series, including 1-10 ATS without rest. To clinch it all, Dallas is 3-18-1 ATS as a conference favorite versus .666 or greater opponents, including 3-11 SU and 0-13-1 ATS as a favorite of fewer than 4 points. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Browns v. Bills -7.5 | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bills are 31-11 SU and 32-10 ATS when coming off three consecutive ATS losses, and they are also 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 8 points when coming off a home loss. In addition, NFL non-division home favorites who scored 30-plus points and lost as a favorite are 14-5 ATS the following game since 1980. For what it’s worth, despite hitting a recent two-game speed bump, Buffalo is winning the total yards on an average of +104 yards per contest this season. It’s closest pursuer, San Francisco, is 25 YPG lighter than the Bills. With QB Josh Allen’s MVP chances having taken a major hit, look for a bounce back. |
|||||||
11-20-22 | Bears +3 v. Falcons | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today.It’s hard to fathom the 4-6 Falcons would be only two spots out of an NFC postseason berth were the playoffs to begin this week. And that’s behind a team that is being out-yarded -82 in net YPG (only Houston is worse), thanks to a league worst 1-9 ITS (In The Stats) record this season. And it’s beginning to catch up with them, as their 4-game ATS losing streak waters down a 6-0 ATS mark to start the season. With Atlanta 1-7 ATS against NFC North opposition, we’ll back the dog today. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Utah v. Oregon +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show | |
Today is a huge double revenger for the Ducks, who lost last season 38-7 at Utah and then 38-10 in the Pac-12 title game two weeks later. The fact that Oregon is 23-1 outright in its last 24 home games, and is coming off a home loss. Consider that the Ducks are 5-0 ATS at home with revenge when coming off a home loss since 1996. The Utes are 5-0 ATS as conference road dogs of less than 10 points and it’s always difficult laying points into this team, but it’s justified in this contest. Remember that all 6 of the Utes’ losses over the last two seasons have occurred away from Salt Lake City. Their defense has looked especially vulnerable in several games this season, and the Quack Attack is coming off a 592-yard effort in the loss to Washington last week. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Rangers -145 v. Sharks | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units San Jose has not been a good team at home this season, going 1-6-3 in San Jose. This is why it is not surprising that the Rangers are prohibitive favorites. They have not been great on the road (4-3-1), but have clearly been better away from Madison Square Garden than San Jose has been on their own home ice. The goaltending situation definitely favors the Rangers. Shesterkin has turned into one of the top netminders in the NHL, and the Rangers are a better team 5-on-5. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Ducks v. Blues -210 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Anaheim is a mess, as the Ducks are last in the Pacific Division, 17 points behind first place. Anaheim is next to last in goals against average at 4.24 goals per game and is 29th in scoring with an average of just 2.65 goals per game. St Louis has not played excellent hockey but the Blues are allowing an average of only 3.50 goals per game which is much less than Anaheim is giving up. Anaheim has won only 13 of its last 52 games overall, while St Louis has had much success against teams from the Pacific Division, winning 15 of the last 20 in that situation. The Blues will be riding a five-game winning streak when hosting Anaheim, while the Ducks have lost four of the last five. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Magic v. Pacers -6 | 113-114 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Magic are dealing with injuries as scoring leader Paolo Banchero is likely out again with an ankle injury. Gary Harris made his season debut but likely won’t play big minutes in the second game of a back-to-back. The Pacers have fared well when playing their second game in as many nights, going 2-0 and covered in each win. Furthermore, the Magic continue to stumble, winning just four out of their last ten games. The Pacers have been stellar, logging a victory in seven out of their last nine clashes after beating Houston by eight points on Friday. The Pacers have been as reliable as it gets in the NBA, miraculously covering the spread in nine consecutive games. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Flames v. Panthers -127 | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 6 h 22 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames hold an excellent recent record against the Panthers, having beaten the Cats on eight of the past 11 occasions. Calgary has, however, struggled to put good-enough performances together lately, managing to win just two of its previous 10 overall fixtures and just one road outing during the current season so far. The Cats, on the other hand, have been solid on own ice throughout the past few campaigns, going 53-16 in their very last 69 domestic matchups. They have triumphed in two of their most recent three home meetings with the Flames and are set to welcome back Aleksander Barkov, who is likely to return from a non-Covid-related illness. He has amassed nine points (2 goals, 7 assists) in 12 career contests against Calgary |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Iowa +2.5 v. Minnesota | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Gophers polished off the tarnish of a 3-game losing streak to become Golden again thanks to three straight wins. Not surprisingly their defense is allowing an average of 250 YPG during the run of victories. History lines up against Minnesota though, as only once in the last 15 meetings have they been the betting favorite and in the series Iowa has bullied them, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the last six games. Iowa beat Wisconsin last week with one of their most explosive offensive days this season…146 yards. Iowa is a DIA DIA in this one, too (Dominating Dogs in Action, Doing it Again). |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Providence v. Miami-FL -130 | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Providence has used its athleticism to beat down on a few bad teams since its narrow win to open the season, but the Friars are not going to be able to do that this afternoon. They have less height and experience than Miami, so their offensive rebounding numbers are going to dip. Miami also likes to play at a faster pace, which is going to be frustrating for a Providence team that is still trying to get used to several new faces on the roster. Larranaga is going to pick up career win No. 700 on Saturday, as his team will advance to Sunday’s title game. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Illinois +18 v. Michigan | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 72 h 31 m | Show |
Big-10 Play of the Day Rating: 4 Units Good numbers for the visitors, though, as they’re 4-0 ATS as double-digit conference road dogs this season, and 6-2 ATS in their last eight run-ins with undefeated conference foes. Michigan counters with a superb 11-1 ATS mark as Big Ten home chalk of less than 20 points, but the Maize-and Blue can’t be trusted to cash a ticket in their final home game, as they’ve gone 2-6 ATS in the last eight such affairs. And let’s face it, Harbaugh will work from a strictly “vanilla” playbook today to avoid tipping off Ohio State’s Ryan Day. Meanwhile, with two rough defenses doing battle today – and Ohio State on deck for Michigan – points could be hard to come by. Finally, playing against any 10-0 college football double-digit favorite in Game Eleven if they are facing a .700 > foe is 16-2-2 ATS since 1980. |
|||||||
11-19-22 | TCU v. Baylor +2.5 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
Big-12 Game of the Month Rating: 5 Unit We realize TCU is 12-1 ATS in LRGs (Last Road Games), but they weren’t undefeated then and carrying the weight of being in the position they are in this year. Meanwhile, some of the numbers look very good when studying Baylor: 5-0 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back home games, 7-1 ATS after scoring fewer than 10 points in previous game, and 3-0 ATS with double conference revenge (Bears lost 30-28 as 7.5-point favorites at TCU last season, one of only two defeats they were dealt in 2021). Meanwhile, back to the Horned Frogs, whose numbers are less-shiny: 1-6 ATS versus double conference revenge and 2-12 ATS after playing Texas. It is extremely strange to imagine, but the Frogs can possibly afford a loss and still make the College Football Playoff – but why take the chance? One thing we know for sure is Baylor is 13-1 ATS as a dog with conference revenge versus a foe coming off a SUATS win, including 8-0 ATS at home |
|||||||
11-19-22 | Connecticut +10.5 v. Army | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units A year ago, the spot on this one would have been around the 17-pt margin, or similar. Fact is that the Cadets are once again among the leaders in overland production (#2 behind only Air Force), but among the dregs, defensively, ranking just 71st, with that coming against such powers as Villanova, GeorgiaSt, Colgate, & Monroe, with mighty UMass on the horizon. Their current 3-0 SU/ATS run has lowered the spot on this, much to the delight of their backers. Not only is UConn bowl eligible, but is also a weekly profit producer, covering its last 7 games, the latest in its upset of Liberty, resulting in a +17 pt cover. |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Pacers -190 v. Rockets | 99-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Indiana Pacers continue to dazzle, winning four out of their last five games propelled by consistent offensive production. The Rockets are stumbling. While they collected a rare win against Dallas on Wednesday, they only have two wins in their last 11 games. The Pacers are in a groove, averaging a remarkable 123 points in their last four games. This is key as the Rockets' defense is abysmal. They remain second last in the NBA in defensive efficiency and have squandered at least 116 points in five out of their last six games. The Pacers continue to defy the odds, literally. They have covered in eight consecutive games and will cover again. |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Bucks +1.5 v. 76ers | 102-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Bucks won their first matchup with the Sixers this season, a two-point win in Philadelphia in October. The Sixers had Harden in that matchup while the Bucks played without Middleton and Connaughton. They should have Connaughton back for this matchup even while Middleton remains out. Lopez size and length can give Embiid problems and that showed through in the first matchup as Embiid was held to just 15 points. The Sixers have been off since Sunday so expect them to be rusty to start in this one. With Antetokoumpo back to full strength, he provides additional support in the paint against Embiid. And, not that many teams do, but the Sixers don't have anyone that can match up effectively with the Greek Freak. |
|||||||
11-18-22 | Baylor -190 v. Virginia | 79-86 | Loss | -190 | 8 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units While it’s only been two games but the Cavaliers are giving ups threes. Last year the three-point defense was exploited. They ranked 240th in three-point defense last season and so far opponents are shooting 36.7% from deep against them, ranking them 283rd. Baylor is a prolific offensive squad that has connected on 51.3% of their field goals. The Bears are averaging 2.1 more points per 100 possessions than the Cavaliers. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Nets v. Blazers -130 | 109-107 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Portland has covered the spread in four of its last five games and has been outstanding on the defensive end of the court. Brooklyn does not have enough firepower to keep pace with the top teams in the league right now, as Irving’s absence leaves the Nets severely shorthanded. They have gone 1-6 in their last seven games against Western Conference teams, and I do not expect that trend to change. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | 27-17 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in this series when both teams are coming off a win. On the flip side, Green Bay is 7-0 ATS in games in which they were an underdog in their last game and their opponent was favored in its last contest. The emergence of Packers rookie WR Christian Watson may be just what the doctor ordered as he scored three touchdowns to go with 8 receptions and 107 yards in last week’s stirring overtime win against Dallas. With QB Aaron Rodgers 5-1 SUATS in his last six games following a SU underdog win. To clinch is, Green Bay is 7-0 SUATS in their last seven Thursday games, and Tennessee is 0-4 SUATS in their last four appearances on Thursdays. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Ducks v. Jets -199 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has stepped up but the defense has been one of the best in the league, allowing only 2.36 goals per game with only eight goals in the last five games. Josh Morrissey and Brenden Dillon have combined for 2.1 defensive point shares and 42 blocked shots while Nate Schmidt, Neal Pionk, and Dylan DeMelo have combined for 2.5 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. Furthermore, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been great in the net with a .935 save percentage and a 2.08 goals-against average on 356 shots. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -150 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units SMU is 1-5 ATS record as a dog of 7 or fewer points, and is 2-10 ATS playing in the second of back-to-back conference road games. Right on cue we see that Tulane is 6-1-1 ATS in the second of consecutive home games and a register-ringing 11-2 ATS as chalk of less than 6 points. It will be interesting to see how the Wave behaves following last week’s downer versus UCF. We feel a bounce back is in order. |
|||||||
11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's -9.5 | 50-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I see St. John's being the better team on both ends of the court. They are currently scoring the 23rd most points per game and they have the 14th-highest team shooting percentage in the country. Nebraska won't be able to consistently stop them, as they will slowly pull away. Nebraska has had a great start to the season, but they aren't as talented as this St. John's team. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Kings v. Oilers -132 | 3-1 | Loss | -132 | 15 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kings have failed to win any of their last three road contests, posting just a single win on their most recent six trips. That will definitely be a problem when facing off against the Oilers, who, despite dropping their previous two home matchups, have still recorded a whopping 12 triumphs in their most recent 16 encounters with Los Angeles in Edmonton. The Oilers have also beaten the Kings on seven of the past 10 occasions overall, winning by more than one strike in five of those outings. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Gonzaga v. Texas -130 | 74-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Texas Longhorns have a chance to avenge last season's opening loss in Gonzaga, 86-74. The Longhorns were welcoming a new coach, Chris Beard, and a new scheme against the #1 ranked team in the country at that time. This season, Texas returns three starters from last season's 22-win team and have a better understanding of Beard's offensive and defensive philosophy. More importantly, Texas will be playing this one in front of a raucous home crowd. The Longhorns have started this season off on the right foot with two-straight home wins. The Texas backcourt has been the story with Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter combining for 51 points through the first two games. Texas is coming off of a 50-point win over Houston Christian in which the defense held them to just 31 points. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Thunder v. Wizards -182 | 121-120 | Loss | -182 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Beal should be ready to go after missing over a week in health and safety protocols. His return should help the Wizards both on the perimeter and to nullify some of the offensive firepower of Gilgeous-Alexander. Beal's presence should also allow Porzingas more room in the paint as the Thunder will have to respect his shooting on the perimeter. The Wizards also are catching the Thunder on the next to last game of an Eastern Conference swing. Look for the Wizards to expose the Thunder in the paint and do just enough on the perimeter to bother the hot shooting Thunder. |
|||||||
11-16-22 | Miami-OH +1.5 v. Northern Illinois | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hard to believe head coach Thomas Hammock is winding up his 4th season with the Huskies. After last year’s 9-5 finish, NIU – who ranked No. 8 nationally in Returning Player Production and welcomed 18 starters back – was expecting more of the same in 2022. After ten games, Northern Illinois is just 3-7 SU. Consider that Miami Ohio is 8-0 ATS coming off a SU loss as a dog, and 6-1 ATS off a loss versus a foe off a win. You should also know Northern Illinois is a money-burning 1-7 ATS in the last eight get-togethers with Miami, and 0-7 ATS coming off an outright away win. |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -125 | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 1 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units I cannot justify a wager on the Grizzlies in this spot, as they could be without most of their key scoring production. They need everyone healthy in this type of game, as New Orleans has a ton of offensive firepower. Neither team has been great on the defensive end, and the Pelicans are the much healthier team. They have covered the spread in five of their last six home games against Memphis. |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Capitals v. Panthers -195 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 1 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Florida Panthers backup goalie Spencer Knight is seeing much more action and is 5-2-0 with a 2.3 1 goals-against average and is expected to be between the pipes again on Tuesday night when the Panthers host Washington. In seven appearances, Knight has one shutout and has allowed three goals or less in 6 of 7 starts. Florida has dominated this matchup, winning four of the last five games overall between the two and four of the last five games played on their home ice against the Capitals. The visiting team, in this case, Washington, has lost seven of the last 10 games between the two. |
|||||||
11-15-22 | Canucks v. Sabres -103 | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 1 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Both teams are desperate to snap out of their losing streaks but I like the Sabres to snap out of their slump on their home ice. The Sabres should pile on the goals against a Canucks defense that allows 4.06 goals per game with Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with strong centering passes. The Sabres should also limit the Canucks offense with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers at the blue line and limiting the Canucks from establishing a strong offensive zone presence while goaltender Eric Comrie makes plenty of big saves in the net. |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Kings v. Flames -170 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames have looked promising to start the season but hope the offense can step up, scoring only 2.93 goals per game. Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli, and Elias Lindholm have scored 17 goals and 15 assists to lead the top two lines but the rest of the offense has struggled. Only four skaters have scored five goals or more while only five skaters have added five assists or more to the offense and opposing defenses can limit the top-heavy offense as result. |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Butler v. Penn State -5.5 | 62-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Bulldogs played well defensively in their first game, they were facing an overmatched team and will have a hard time slowing down the hot-shooting Nittany Lions. The Bulldogs also played well offensively in their first game, but they didn’t shoot the ball well, especially from three-point range where they made less than 20 percent of their shots. They also struggled from the free throw line, making less than 70 percent of their free throws. They rebounded the ball well and will get extra scoring opportunities that will help them keep the score close. They were very careless with the ball and they’re facing a defense that has done a good job forcing turnovers, which will lead to easy scoring opportunities for them. With the Nittany Lions holding their first two opponents under 70 points per game, the Bulldogs will have a hard time keeping up, so go with Penn State to cover the spread. |
|||||||
11-14-22 | Hornets v. Magic +105 | 112-105 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Hornets will be without Hayward while Dennis Smith Jr. is questionable. They are stumbling offensively, netting 100 or fewer points in five out of their last seven games. The Magic are playing stifling defense, conceding only 87 and 97 points respectively in their last two games against the Suns and Mavs. The Magic were able to hold Charlotte to only 38% shooting in the first meeting. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Nuggets v. Bulls +100 | 126-103 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nuggets have continued to struggle to defend on the road. They are currently allowing the 23rd most points per game and the fourth-highest shooting percentage. They will struggle to slow down the Bulls, as I see DeRozan having a big game in this one. Chicago has also shown that they can consistently knock down shots from deep, as they have the 12th-highest team shooting percentage from behind the arc. The Nuggets will leave their perimeter shooters open and continue to give up points throughout this game. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Capitals v. Lightning -171 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Things did not go Tampa Bay’s way on Friday, when pucks refused to go into opposing Washington’s net and the team’s power play remained stale (0-for-3; 1-for-10 in the last three games). A return to Amalie Arena, though, will be highly appreciated, as the Bolts have already posted a decent 3-1-1 record in their most recent five domestic fixtures and will once again be facing off against the Capitals, who have only managed to win two of their past five trips to Tampa. Currently holding just two triumphs in its last seven outings overall, having posted just a single victory on its previous four travels. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Wolves v. Cavs -5 | 129-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Cavaliers look to pull out of their funk against an opponent experiencing a more pronounced dip. Minnesota's losing streak equals Cleveland at three games, but the Timberwolves have dropped six of their last seven with Friday's 114-103 defeat against Memphis. Each of the last three Minnesota losses have been by double-digit-point margins, and none of the six in this slide have been any closer than nine points. A 46-33 Grizzlies rebounding advantage turned into a 32-9 edge in second-chance points Friday. Minnesota also yielded a 62-46 disparity for points in the paint. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Sharks v. Wild -227 | 3-2 | Loss | -227 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Fleury had a 3.71 goals-against average while starting 1-2-1 but owns a 1.70 GAA while winning five of seven since for the Wild, who hope to improve on a 2-4-0 home mark. In his last 11 starts against San Jose, with Vegas, Chicago and Minnesota, Fleury is 9-1-1 with a 1.54 GAA. Backup Filip Gustavsson (1-3-0, 3.10 GAA) has never faced San Jose. The Wild have won two straight and five of the last six against the Sharks, who ended their 2-3-0 slide with Friday's 5-4 victory at Dallas. San Jose ranks near the bottom of the NHL by allowing 58 goals, with 28 coming in the last six games. However, the Sharks have scored 23 times during that span, while coming out of a hostile environment in Dallas with just their fourth win in 16 games could potentially spark a needed run. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Cowboys -4 v. Packers | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Cowboys bring with them a league-best 33 sacks in eight games led by game-wrecker Micah Parsons. Dallas is rested following its bye week. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games with four of those victories achieved when back up quarterback Cooper Rush was under center. Mike McCarthy has had this matchup circled from the start in his return to Green Bay having been the Packers’ head coach for 13 seasons. Dak Prescott is back in healthy form. The Packers won’t have injured Rashan Gary, their best pass rusher. Despite having Kenny Clark at nose tackle, the Packers’ disappointing run defense ranks 26th. Green Bay’s special teams still remain bad, too. There is a bigger gap between these two teams than the point spread indicates |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 22 m | Show |
Upset of the Week Rating: 5 Units Coming off their Bye week, the Browns look to be as healthy as they’ve been all season with star DB Denzel Ward and OT Wyatt Teller due back after resting lingering injuries. They are also as hungry as they’ve been this season as they now trail AFC North Division-leading Baltimore by 2.5 games and need to up their game in anticipation of the return of QB Deshaun Watson in three weeks. The Browns secondary better sharpen up, though, going against the top 1-2 WR duo in the league in Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle. Hill is on pace for a record 2,085 yards and could become the first ever receiver to surpass 2,000. Nonetheless, Miami arrives 3-8 ATS following consecutive NFC contests, while Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in this series, 4-0 ATS in first of back-to-back roadies, and 5-1 ATS following a division home game. Consider that Cleveland HC is 11-6 ATS as a dog with his current team, including 5-0 ATS against opponents he defeated in a most recent meeting. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Broncos +3 v. Titans | 10-17 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating; 2 Units Mike Vrabel’s supermen have out-yarded just one foe this year while losing the stats an average -86 net YPG. For what it’s worth, only Houston and Pittsburgh are worse, and they own a collective record of 3-12-1 this season. Making matters worse for the Nashville cats, the well-rested Broncos are 5-0 ATS when coming off a Bye week, as well as 7-1 ATS in this series. In addition, Denver sports a 7-1 ATS mark in this series, including 5-0 ATS in games in which it has a losing record. With the Titans 2-6 ATS at home coming off back-to-back road games, we’re all over Denver here. |
|||||||
11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears -145 | 31-30 | Loss | -145 | 15 h 40 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units The Lions are likely still feeling giddy after beating the Packers, 15-9, last week. They’d better not live too long in the moment as they ride a 5-game ITS (In The Stats) losing streak entering this game. They are also 2-13 ATS as a dog in first of consecutive away games, 0-4 ATS with double division revenge, not to mention 2-7 SUATS in division games after holding a division foe under 10 points in their previous game. With the bad news Bears 6-0 ATS in first meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS at home off a home game, look for the Lions to fall asleep here today. |