Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-29-17 | Texans v. Seahawks -6 | 38-41 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 15 m | Show | |
-Houston had a bye at the worst possible time; expect that break to have a negative impact -Seattle is playing terrific football right now; they are on a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS run 10* Play SEAHAWKS (-). |
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10-29-17 | Panthers +1.5 v. Bucs | 17-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
-Carolina comes into this game off back-to-back losses; expect strong bounce back effort -Tampa Bay has lost three straight games and four of their last five games overall 9* Play PANTHERS (+). |
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10-28-17 | Lakers v. Jazz -10 | 81-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
-Los Angeles in a bad scheduling spot; third game in four days on a back-to-back set in altitude -Utah returns home off back-to-back road losses; bounce back since they’ve had two days off 9* Play JAZZ (-). |
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10-28-17 | Mississippi State v. Texas A&M +2 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 47 m | Show | |
-Mississippi State is off back-to-back blowout wins where they scored 80 points; regression here -offense has been much worse on the road where they only average 23.3 ppg 5.1 yards per play -Texas A&M off a bye with revenge; lost 35-28 as 10.5-pt road favorites at Miss State last season 9* Play TEXAS A&M (+). |
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10-28-17 | Utah v. Oregon +3 | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
-Utah is 0-3 SU over their last three games while getting out-scored 81-57 in those games -Oregon returns home off back-to-back ugly offensive games; strong bounce back here -offense is averaging 43.5 points per game on 6.6 yards per play at home this season 9* Play OREGON (+). |
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10-28-17 | Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -6.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
-Vanderbilt has lost their last four games by an average of 31.5 points per game -South Carolina returns home off a bye for homecoming; expect a strong performance here -passing offense is averaging 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and 6.0 yards per play overall at home 9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (-). |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | 38-39 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
-Penn State is in a terrible situational and scheduling spot after their big home win over Michigan -Ohio State off a bye with revenge; lost 24-21 as 19-pt road favorites at Penn State last season -offense is averaging 7.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.7 yards per play 10* Play OHIO STATE (-). |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Astros | 3-5 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
-LA’s Yu Darvish is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.83 ERA and 1.24 WHIP -righty projects to have an 8.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.4 strikeout/walk ratio -Astros have hit just .197 (31-157) with a terrible .557 OPS against Darvish in his career -Houston’s Lance McCullers projects to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.79 ERA and 1.23 WHIP -righty in poor current form; 5.27 ERA after giving up 8 earned runs on 12 hits in his last 3 starts -Dodgers have hit .450 with a strong .979 OPS against McCullers in his career 9* Play DODGERS (+1.5 runline). |
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10-27-17 | Thunder -2 v. Wolves | 116-119 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
-Oklahoma City’s lone home loss came by 2 points to Minnesota; quick turnaround revenge spot -Minnesota comes into this game in bad current form; back-to-back losses by 23 and 21 points 10* Play THUNDER (-). |
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10-26-17 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -7.5 | 91-96 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
-Dallas got their first win of the season last night in their 103-94 home win over Memphis -Memphis comes home off an ugly road loss in Dallas last night; quick turnaround revenge spot 10* Play GRIZZLIES (-). |
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10-25-17 | Jazz -6.5 v. Suns | 88-97 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 3 m | Show | |
-Utah off a 102-84 loss in Los Angeles last night; bounce back, especially on offense -Phoenix is just 1-3 SU on the season, and they are off a 117-115 win over Sacramento 10* Play JAZZ (-). |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans v. Blazers -4.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
-New Orleans will play their fourth game of the season, and this will be their third road game -Portland comes home off a road loss, and with this being their home opener, expect strong effort 9* Play TRAIL BLAZERS (-). |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +5.5 v. Eagles | 24-34 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
-Washington lost 30-17 at home to Washington in Week 1; just a 2-pt game with 2 minutes left -Philadelphia is 5-1 on the season, but they’ve played an extremely weak schedule so far 10* Play REDSKINS (+). |
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10-22-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Steelers | 14-29 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
-Cincinnati comes into this game off their bye fresh and ready for a divisional opponent -Pittsburgh returns home after handing the Chiefs their first loss of the season; letdown here 10* Play BENGALS (+). |
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10-22-17 | Jets +3 v. Dolphins | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
-New York hits the road after a 24-17 home loss to New England; expect bounce back effort -Miami returns home off their big upset win at Atlanta as 14-point road underdogs; letdown spot 9* Play JETS (+). |
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10-22-17 | Titans v. Browns +6 | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
-Tennessee off high-scoring home win on Monday night vs. division rival; letdown here -Cleveland is winless on the season, but returning home, expect a strong performance here 9* Play BROWNS (+). |
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10-21-17 | Wyoming v. Boise State -14 | 14-24 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 15 m | Show | |
-Wyoming has played an easy schedule for a 4-2 record; lost 49-13 to Oregon and 24-3 at Iowa -offense is below average; 24 ppg on 4.8 yppl versus defenses that allow 28.9 ppg on 5.9 yppl -Boise State has this game circled after losing as 14.5-point favorites at Wyoming last season 10* Play BOISE STATE (-). |
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10-21-17 | Magic +11.5 v. Cavs | 114-93 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
-Orlando off a 126-121 road loss in Brooklyn last night; bounce back, especially on defense -Cleveland will be playing their third game in five days with a travel spot in between 9* Play MAGIC (+). |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
-USC has played 5 of their 7 games at home this season; toughest road game to date -offense has been much worse on the road where they are only averaging 5.1 yards per play -Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after getting embarrassed 45-27 at USC last season 9* Play NOTRE DAME (-). |
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10-21-17 | Oregon +6.5 v. UCLA | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
-Oregon has played two straight poor games against strong defenses; strong bounce back here -offense is averaging 37.9 points per game on 6.3 yards per play; now face a terrible defense -UCLA is just 1-3 SU over their last four games, losing those games by an average of 14.7 ppg 9* Play OREGON (+). |
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10-21-17 | Louisville v. Florida State -6 | 31-28 | Loss | -103 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
-Louisville is on a 2-game losing streak, and they are stepping way up in defensive class -offense has faced opponents that allow 29 points per game on 5.9 yards per play -Florida State playing with revenge after losing 63-20 as road favorites in Louisville last season -offense is averaging 5.4 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 4.8 yards per play 9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-). |
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10-20-17 | Hawks v. Hornets -5 | 91-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
-Atlanta will play their second consecutive road game to open up the season -Charlotte returns home off a 102-90 road loss in Detroit on Wednesday; expect strong effort 9* Play HORNETS (-). |
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10-18-17 | Rockets -7.5 v. Kings | 105-100 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
-Houston off big win in Golden State last night, so expect momentum to carry over tonight -Sacramento will play their season opener tonight, but it’s a disadvantage versus Houston 9* Play ROCKETS (-). |
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10-18-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -2.5 | 108-100 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
-Milwaukee will play their season opener tonight; disadvantage since Boston played last night -Boston returns home off 3-point loss in Cleveland; expect emotional effort after Hayward injury 9* Play CELTICS (-). |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos -11.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
-New York is only scoring 16.4 points per game versus defenses that give up 22 ppg -Denver returns off a bye, so expect a fresh and healthy team; big edge vs. injury riddled Giants 9* Play BRONCOS (-). |
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10-15-17 | Cubs +1.5 v. Dodgers | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
-Chicago’s Jon Lester is slated to give up 2.2 earned runs with a 3.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP -lefty projects to have an 8.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio -Dodgers have hit just .218 (36-165) with a mediocre .659 OPS against Lester in his career -LA starter Rich Hill projects to give up 2.0 earned runs with a 3.59 ERA and 1.28 WHIP -lefty is just 7-5 at home and 8-5 in night games; gave up 118 hits in 180 innings combined -Cubs are averaging 5.4 runs per game versus left-handed starters this season 9* Play CUBS (+1.5 runline). |
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
-Pittsburgh is off an ugly 30-9 home loss to Jacksonville, so expect a strong performance here -Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS, but off high-scoring game on Sunday night, letdown here 9* Play STEELERS (+). |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show | |
-Tampa Bay is just 2-2 on the season despite playing a weak schedule with three home games -Arizona returns home off an embarrassing 34-7 loss in Philadelphia; expect bounce back effort 9* Play CARDINALS (+). |
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10-14-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +4.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
-Michigan State off their big rivalry win at Michigan as 13-point underdogs; natural letdown spot -offense is below average; 22.4 ppg on 5.4 yppl versus defenses that allow 23 ppg on 5.4 yppl -Minnesota off back-to-back losses, and returning home, expect a peak performance here 9* Play MINNESOTA (+). |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
-Auburn has scored 144 total points in their last three games against terrible teams and defenses -LSU returns home off a 17-16 win at Florida; strong effort after losing their last home game -offense is averaging 6.2 yards per play versus defenses that only give up 5.5 yards per play 9* Play LSU (+). |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama v. Troy -15 | 19-8 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
-South Alabama is 1-4 on the season with three of their four losses coming by 18 points or more -offense averages just 23.6 points per game versus defense that give up 31.6 points per game -Jaguars defense is giving up 40.5 points per game on 7.4 yards per play on the road -Troy has won four straight games after losing their season opener 24-13 at Boise State -offense is averaging 6.0 yards per play versus defenses that give up 5.8 yards per play -Trojans defense is excellent; allow just 12 points per game on 3.9 yards per play at home 10* Play TROY (-). |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans +1.5 | 42-34 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 16 m | Show | |
-Kansas City is 4-0 SU/ATS on the season, but this is a bad spot after playing on Monday night -Houston is getting a rare national TV game at home, so expect a strong effort tonight 9* Play TEXANS (+). |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +1.5 v. Rams | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
-Seattle has some good momentum after their 46-18 home win over the Colts last Sunday night -Los Angeles returns home off back-to-back high-scoring road wins; natural letdown spot here 10* Play SEAHAWKS (+). |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
-Buffalo is off back-to-back SU underdog wins, and now on second straight road trip; letdown -Cincinnati returning home off a big, confidence-building 31-7 win over Cleveland last Sunday 9* Play BENGALS (-). |
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10-08-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Giants | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
-Los Angeles is 0-4 on the season, but three of their four losses have come by 3, 2, and 2 points -New York is also 0-4 on the season, and they’ve lost back-to-back high-scoring games 9* Play CHARGERS (+). |
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10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas -5 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
-Kansas State is 3-1 on the season, but all three wins have come at home; lost 14-7 at Vanderbilt -offense is below average; 37.5 ppg on 6.7 yppl versus defenses that allow 36.9 ppg on 6.8 yppl -Texas hell bent on revenge after losing 24-21 at Kansas State last season 10* Play TEXAS (-). |
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10-07-17 | Arkansas v. South Carolina +3 | 22-48 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
-Arkansas will play their first true road game of the season against a superior defensive team -South Carolina returns home off a 24-17 loss at Texas A&M; expect a strong bounce back here -passing offense averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt; Arkansas has faced all running teams 9* Play SOUTH CAROLINA (+). |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | 24-31 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
-West Virginia has played an extremely easy schedule, but their stats are unimpressive -TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 4-0 SU so far in 2017 9* Play TCU (-). |
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10-07-17 | Miami-FL v. Florida State +3.5 | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
-Miami, FL is 3-0 vs. awful teams: Bethune Cookman, Toledo and Duke -Florida State has won seven consecutive games against their in-state rival -Seminoles have faced the much tougher schedule vs. teams like Alabama and NC State 9* Play FLORIDA STATE (+). |
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10-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
-Arizona starter Taijuan Walker projects to give up 2.7 earned runs, 4.41 ERA and 1.46 WHIP -righty is in terrible current form; owns a 5.27 ERA and 1.68 WHIP over his last three starts -Dodgers have hit a respectable .295 (18-61) with a terrific .803 OPS against Walker in his career -LA starter Clayton Kershaw slated to give up 1.8 earned runs with a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP -lefty projects to have a 10.8 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.4 strikeout/walk ratio -Diamondbacks have hit just .208 (40-192) with a poor .613 OPS against Kershaw in his career 10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline). |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5.5 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 16 m | Show | |
-New England was in a bad spot last Sunday, and that loss was not surprising; bounce back here -Tampa Bay survived the Giants last week; team is loaded with injuries and stepping up in class 10* Play PATRIOTS (-). |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees -1.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
-Twins starter Ervin Santana projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a 4.82 ERA and 1.44 WHIP -righty has given up 60 earned runs on 120 hits in 131.2 innings of work in night games this year -Yankees have hit a respectable .270 (43-159) with a solid .794 OPS against Santana in his career -Yankees starter Luis Severino slated to give up 2.1 earned runs with a 3.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP -righty projects to have a 10.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.2 strikeout/walk ratio -Twins have scored just 6 total runs in their last three games against New York 10* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline). |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs -7 | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show | |
-Washington playing their 2nd straight primetime game; beat Oakland 27-10 last Sunday night -Kansas City comes into this game at 3-0 on the season; the only unbeaten team remaining 10* Play CHIEFS (-). |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show | |
-Indianapolis is only scoring 17.7 points per game versus defenses that give up 25.2 ppg -Seattle returns home off a 33-27 loss to Titans; expect strong bounce back, especially on defense 9* Play SEAHAWKS (-). |
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
-New York is 0-3 SU and desperate; much improved showing last week; expect more of the same -Tampa Bay returning home off a shellacking at Minnesota; team is besieged with injuries 10* Play GIANTS (+). |
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10-01-17 | 49ers +7 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
-San Francisco is 0-3 SU, but they’ve had extra time to prepare after last playing on a Thursday -Arizona playing another home game after losing on Monday night to Dallas; injury riddled team 9* Play 49ERS (+). |
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10-01-17 | Panthers +9 v. Patriots | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
-Carolina has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that -New England is set to regress after scoring 36 points in each of their last two wins 9* Play PANTHERS (+). |
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09-30-17 | Ole Miss v. Alabama -27.5 | 3-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
-Mississippi stepping up in class after playing California, Tennessee-Martin and South Alabama -Alabama is averaging 41.2 ppg on 6.9 yppl versus defenses that allow 24.2 ppg on 5.4 yppl -offense is averaging 6.5 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 10* Play ALABAMA (-). |
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09-30-17 | Florida State -7 v. Wake Forest | 26-19 | Push | 0 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
-Florida State is 0-2 on the season, and with a bye on deck, expect a peak performance -Seminoles have faced Alabama and NC State, so taking a big step-down in class here -Wake Forest is 4-0 vs. awful teams: Presbyterian, Boston College, Utah St and Appalachian St 9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-). |
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09-27-17 | Rays v. Yankees -1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 45 m | Show | |
-Rays starter Matt Andriese projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a 4.61 ERA and 1.43 WHIP -righty is in terrible current form; owns an 8.25 ERA and 1.83 WHIP over his last three starts -Yankees have hit a solid .323 (32-99) with a terrific 1.018 OPS against Andriese in his career -Yankees starter Luis Severino slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a 3.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP -righty projects to have a 11.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio -Rays have hit just .239 (17-71) with an average .753 OPS against Severino in his career 10* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline). |
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09-26-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
-Giants starter Matt Moore projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a 4.79 ERA and 1.49 WHIP -lefty owns a 6.51 ERA and 1.69 WHIP on the road after giving up 54 earned runs on 93 hits -Diamondbacks have hit a solid .310 with a terrific .885 OPS against Moore in his career -Arizona starter Robbie Ray is slated to give up 2.3 earned runs with a 3.36 ERA and 1.15 WHIP -lefty projects to have a 10.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.7 strikeout/walk ratio -Diamondbacks have hit just .242 (23-95) with a weak .670 OPS against Ray in his career 10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline).
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
-Dallas is looking to bounce back strong off their poor performance in Denver; a 42-17 loss -Arizona playing their home opener after splitting their first two games on the road 9* Play COWBOYS (-). |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 5 m | Show | |
-Seattle has yet to play their best football, but they get a favorable matchup to do just that -Tennessee set to regress after beating Jacksonville by 21 points (37-16) last week 10* Play SEAHAWKS (+). |
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09-24-17 | Giants +6 v. Eagles | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
-New York is 0-2 SU and desperate; expect a strong effort with this being a divisional game -Philadelphia returning home off a pair of road games; line is inflated after Giants recent results 9* Play GIANTS (+). |
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09-24-17 | Broncos v. Bills +3.5 | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
-Denver’s first road game after a Monday night win and high-profile win over the Cowboys -Buffalo plays much better at home than on the road; they beat the Jets in their home opener 9* Play BILLS (+). |
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09-23-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan State | 38-18 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
-Notre Dame hell bent on revenge after losing 36-28 at home as 7.5-point favorites last season -Michigan State’s two wins this season have come against less talented MAC teams -offense is below average; 31.5 ppg on 6.1 yppl versus defenses that allow 37.3 ppg on 6.3 yppl 10* Play NOTRE DAME (-). |
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09-23-17 | Mississippi State +4.5 v. Georgia | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
-Mississippi State is one of the most improved teams in the country after going 6-7 in 2016 -Georgia’s lone win against a ‘real’ team came by just a single point (20-19) over Notre Dame 9* Play MISSISSIPPI STATE (+). |
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09-23-17 | TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season; 3-0 SU so far in 2017 -Oklahoma State off three straight blowout wins causing this pointspread to be inflated 9* Play TCU (+). |
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09-23-17 | NC State v. Florida State -12.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
-NC State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team -Florida State playing just their second game of the season after losing to Alabama 3 weeks ago -offense will be led by QB James Balckman; an edge since NC State has zero film on him 9* Play FLORIDA STATE (-). |
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09-22-17 | Utah v. Arizona +4 | 30-24 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
-Utah comes into this game with a 3-0 SU record, but the Utes had to travel on a short week -Arizona returns home off 47-point road win; lost their previous home game so focused spot -offense is averaging 47 points per game on 6.5 yards per play; big step-up for Utah’s defense 9* Play ARIZONA (+). |
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09-20-17 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Orioles | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
Boston will conclude their 3-game series in Baltimore against the Orioles on Wednesday night. The Red Sox will send Chris Sale to the mound tonight. Sale projects to have a fantastic outing against Baltimore’s lineup based on my numbers. He is slated to give up 2.5 earned runs with a terrific 3.46 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game. The lefty also projects to have an incredible 12.0 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a sterling 8.3 strikeout/walk ratio against the Orioles tonight. The Boston starter has been fantastic away from home where he has given up just 38 earned runs on 91 hits in 118 innings of work while earning a fabulous 2.90 ERA and a tremendous 0.98 WHIP this season. Sale has dominated Baltimore’s offense in the past. The Orioles have hit just .213 (32-for-150) with a weak .623 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Sale during his career. 10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline). |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 11 m | Show | |
-Detroit is not nearly as good as they looked by the score of their 35-23 win over Arizona -New York was in a bad spot for their opener in Dallas; a team playing with double revenge 10* Play GIANTS (-). |
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09-17-17 | Bills v. Panthers -6.5 | 3-9 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
-Buffalo only beat the Jets (worst team in the league) by 9 points at home last week -Carolina dominated the 49ers in San Francisco in their 23-3 win last week 9* Play PANTHERS (-). |
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09-16-17 | Stanford -8 v. San Diego State | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 30 m | Show | |
-Stanford off a 42-24 loss at USC; head coach David Shaw is 20-4 ATS off a SU loss -San Diego State is very young; only 11 returning starters and they lost 23 seniors from last year 9* Play STANFORD (-). |
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09-16-17 | Georgia State v. Penn State -37 | 0-56 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show | |
-Georgia State faced Tennessee State and lost 17-10; big step-up in class for first road game -Penn State most experienced team in the Big Ten with 18 returning starters; 2-0 this season -offense averaging 42.5 points per game on 7.5 yards per play versus defenses that allow 6.3 yppl 10* Play PENN STATE (-). |
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09-16-17 | Oregon -14 v. Wyoming | 49-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 56 m | Show | |
-Oregon is one of the most improved teams in the country this season -Wyoming’s lone win this season has come against FCS Gardner Webb 9* Play OREGON (-). |
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09-16-17 | Colorado State v. Alabama -28.5 | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 55 m | Show | |
-Colorado State will play their first true road game of the season against a superior team -Alabama playing second straight home game before hitting the road for their first SEC game -offense is averaging 5.9 yards per rush versus defenses that only give up 4.3 yards per rush 9* Play ALABAMA (-). |
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09-12-17 | Mets v. Cubs -1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
New York will begin a 3-game series in Chicago against the Cubs on Tuesday night. The Mets will start Robert Gsellman in this game. My numbers project a poor outing for Gsellman against Chicago’s lineup. He projects to give up 3.0 earned runs with a terrible 4.96 ERA and an ugly 1.59 WHIP in this game. The righty also projects to have a weak 6.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio against the Cubs tonight. Gsellman has been at his worst away from home this season. The New York starter owns a woeful 7.44 ERA and an awful 1.87 WHIP after giving up 27 earned runs on 46 hits in just 32.2 innings of work on the road. Gsellman’s road struggles will continue in this game, especially since the Cubs are averaging 5.1 runs per game at home this season. He is backed by a New York bullpen that has a horrible 5.47 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the road this year. 10* Play CUBS (-1.5 runline). |
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09-11-17 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 83 h 39 m | Show | |
-San Diego has played much better on the road recently; 10-6 ATS their last 16 away games -defense will be very good this season, and they’ll limit scoring opportunities in this game -Denver went 9-7 in 2016, but we expect a losing record at the end of the 2017 season 10* Play CHARGERS (+). |
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09-10-17 | Giants v. Cowboys -4 | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 57 h 50 m | Show | |
-New York’s offense was absolutely abysmal last season, and not much looks it will change -Dallas’ offense was terrific in 2016, and with the same personnel, expect more of the same 9* Play COWBOYS (-). |
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09-10-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
San Diego will conclude their 3-game series in Arizona on Sunday afternoon. The Padres will start Luis Perdomo in this game. My numbers project a poor outing for Perdomo against Arizona’s lineup. He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a terrible 5.18 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in this game. The righty also projects to have a weak 6.3 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.7 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks in this game. Perdomo has been at his worst away from home this season. The San Diego starter is just 2-5 with a poor 4.55 ERA and 1.65 WHIP after giving up 30 earned runs on 74 hits in just 59.1 innings of work on the road. Perdomo has also struggled mightily against Arizona’s offense. The Diamondbacks have hit a terrific .358 (24-67) with an outstanding 1.113 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Perdomo in his career. Arizona will send Robbie Ray to the mound today. Ray projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers. He is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.46 ERA and an excellent 1.16 WHIP in this game. The lefty also projects to have a strong 10.5 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a solid 3.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres in this game. The Arizona starter comes into this game in tremendous current form. Over his last three starts, Ray has given up just 2 earned runs on 9 hits in 19.1 innings of work while earning a fantastic 0.93 ERA and a sterling 0.67 WHIP in those games. Ray has had a lot of success against San Diego’s offense in the past. The Padres have hit just .190 (12-63) with a weak .541 OPS against Ray in his career. We’ll back Arizona on the run line in this game on Sunday afternoon. 9* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline). |
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09-10-17 | Raiders v. Titans -2.5 | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 49 h 22 m | Show | |
-Oakland is set to regress this season after overachieving in 2016; bad stats for a 12-win team -Tennessee’s offense improved by 5 points per game in 2016; expect more improvement in 2017 10* Play TITANS (-). |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals -2 v. Lions | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 21 m | Show | |
-Arizona set to bounce back after failing to reach 10+ wins for the first time under HC Arians -Detroit is set to regress after making the playoffs in 2016 while getting out-scored on the year 9* Play CARDINALS (-). |
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09-10-17 | Jaguars +6 v. Texans | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show | |
-Jacksonville will be able to run the ball on Houston with bruising rookie Leonard Fournette -Houston had the 29th ranked offense last year, and with Tom Savage starting, expect similar 9* Play JAGUARS (+). |
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09-09-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
Colorado has won the first two games of this series in Los Angeles, but we expect a much different outcome tonight. Colorado will start Chad Bettis in this game. My numbers project a poor outing for Bettis against Los Angeles’ lineup. He projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a poor 4.90 ERA in this game. The righty also projects to have a weak 6.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Dodgers in this game. Bettis comes into this game in terrible current form. Over his last three starts, Bettis has earned a horrendous 7.63 ERA after giving up 13 earned runs on 18 hits in 15.1 innings of work in those outings. Bettis has also struggled mightily against Los Angeles’ offense. The Dodgers have hit a solid .314 (22-70) with a terrific .843 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Bettis in his career. The Dodgers will send Alex Wood to the mound tonight. Wood projects to have a fantastic outing against Colorado’s lineup based on my numbers. He is slated to give up 2.0 earned runs with a terrific 3.02 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game. The lefty also projects to have a strong 9.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a solid 4.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Rockies in this game. The Los Angeles starter has been fantastic at home where he is 8-1 after giving up just 20 earned runs on 51 hits in 65 innings of work while earning a fantastic 2.38 ERA and a sterling 1.02 WHIP in those games. Wood has had a lot of success against Colorado’s offense in the past. The Rockies have hit just .252 (31-123) with a weak .677 OPS against Wood in his career. We’ll back Los Angeles on the run line in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play DODGERS (-1.5 runline). |
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09-09-17 | TCU -3 v. Arkansas | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 68 h 54 m | Show | |
-TCU is one of the most improved teams in the country this season -Arkansas is very young; 9 true freshmen playing; 2 starting on the OL and in the secondary 9* Play TCU (-). |
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09-09-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse -10 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 43 m | Show | |
-Middle Tennessee State was terrible in their 28-6 home loss to Vanderbilt last week -Syracuse is experienced team with 19 returning starters in second year under HC Dino Babers -offense racked up 586 yards in their 50-6 win last week over Central Connecticut State 10* Play SYRACUSE (-). |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs v. Patriots -9 | 42-27 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 25 m | Show | |
-Kansas City went 12-4 SU in 2016, but their overall stats did not match up to that record -QB Alex Smith will lose his job to rookie QB Patrick Mahomes; it’s just a matter of when -Chiefs were +16 in turnover margin in 2016; a number which will certainly regress in 2017 -New England is the best team in the NFL, and there’s a decent gap back to second -offense is loaded with speedy playmakers; more potent than ever, even without Julian Edleman-Patriots have gone 13-3 SU and 10-4-2 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons 10* Play PATRIOTS (-). |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +3.5 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
-Tennessee was -70.6 ypg in SEC play last season despite an overall 9-4 SU record -Vols must replace dual threat QB Joshua Dobbs who accounted for most of their offense -defense gave up 28.8 ppg on 449 ypg, including 219 rushing yards per game on 5.0 ypr -Georgia Tech’s current roster is 5-1 SU against SEC teams -excellent triple option rushing offense that averaged 258 ypg on 5.5 ypr last season -head coach Paul Johnson is 6-2 ATS away from home as an underdog with this current roster 9* Play GEORGIA TECH (+). |
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09-03-17 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Padres | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Los Angeles will conclude their 4-game series in San Diego against the Padres on Sunday afternoon. The Dodgers will send Alex Wood to the mound and he projects to have a fantastic outing against San Diego’s lineup based on my numbers. Wood is slated to give up 2.1 earned runs with a solid 3.29 ERA and an excellent 1.13 WHIP in this game. The lefty also projects to have a strong 9.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a 3.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Padres today. The Los Angeles starter has been fantastic on the road where he is a perfect 6-0 after giving up just 13 earned runs on 43 hits in 58.1 innings of work while earning a fabulous 2.01 ERA and a sterling 0.99 WHIP in those games. He is backed by a Los Angeles bullpen that has an excellent 2.95 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 44 saves this season. Wood has dominated San Diego’s offense in the past. The Padres have hit just .146 (7-for-48) with a weak .389 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Wood during his career. San Diego has been awful at home versus left-handed pitchers this year, averaging just 2.8 runs per nine innings with a .210 batting average, compared to 4.4 runs and .234 versus RHP. 10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 run line). |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida +5.5 | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
This game is being played on a neutral field in Arlington, Texas. The line has gone higher since Florida suspended ten players this week, however it is an overreaction by the oddsmakers and betting public, and this has now created additional value with the underdog Gators. Florida went 9-4 SU last year, including an impressive 30-3 Outback Bowl win over Iowa as a 3-point favorite. This is a deep, veteran team that still has plenty of talent, even after the recent suspensions. Starting running back Jordan Scarlett will not play, but this means second-leading rusher Lamical Perine will get more carries. Scarlett will be joined by WR Antonio Callaway on the sidelines, however his loss might actually boost the team's morale as insiders report he was not well liked by his teammates. Head coach Jim McElwain announced Feleipe Franks will start under center and he has a strong arm and solid pocket presence. The posted total is a low in this game (O/U 43) which suggests a defensive, low-scoring game and that favors the underdog, especially since Florida is 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral field games with a low total in this range. |
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09-02-17 | South Carolina v. NC State -5 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
South Carolina went 6-7 SU last year in Will Muschamp's first year with the school. The defensive minded coach didn’t help the offense as that unit averaged just 20.8 points per game last year. In 2016, South Carolina played six games away from home and averaged a meager 15 points per contest and just 296 yards of total offense. The Gamecocks will have an extremely difficult time moving the ball consistently in this game against a strong defense like NC State. We expect the Gamecocks to struggle this year, especially since they’ll be playing the fourth toughest schedule in the country amongst FBS teams. 10* Play NC STATE (-). |
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09-02-17 | Akron v. Penn State -30.5 | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Akron went just 5-7 SU last season, and they only return 15 starters for this season. This is a group that failed miserably when they took a step up in competition. The Zips lost 54-10 at Wisconsin last year and 41-3 at Oklahoma in 2015 in two recent "paycheck" games. QB Thomas Woodson threw for just 108 yards in that loss to the Badgers. Akron is 2-6 ATS the last three seasons in the month of September. The Zips are just 3-6 ATS in non-conference games over the last three seasons. |
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09-01-17 | Utah State v. Wisconsin -27 | 10-59 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show | |
Utah State went just 3-9 SU last season, and they only return 10 total starters for this season. The Aggies’ biggest concerns come on the defensive line, and that’s a big negative for tonight’s game against Wisconsin. Utah State lost four of their top five defensive lineman, including their best player from a year ago. Even with an experienced group, the Aggies gave up 203 rushing yards per game on 4.4 yards per rush last season. Things will be even worse this season, especially against tonight’s opponent. Utah State also has a pedestrian offense that has averaged just 23.9, 29, and 26.9 points per game over the last three seasons. In their out of conference road opener last season, the Aggies only scored 7 points in a 38-point loss at USC. We expect a similar outcome tonight. Wisconsin went 11-3 SU last season, and the Badgers return 15 starters from that team that won the Cotton Bowl. Wisconsin is in their third season under head coach Paul Chryst, so we expect even more improvement this season. The Badgers are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS in home openers under Chryst, winning those two games by a combined score of 112-10. Wisconsin has a powerful running game that will move the ball at will in this game. Last season, the Badgers ran for 203 yards per game on 4.3 yards per rush. Wisconsin also possess a very strong defense that has given up just 15.6 and 13.7 points per game over the last two seasons. This game is a complete mismatch on both sides of the ball, so we’ll lay the points with the Badgers on Friday night. 10* Play WISCONSIN (-). |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Raiders | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll has reverted back to his winning ways in the preseason. The Seahawks are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this preseason, winning those games by a combined score of 94-43. Overall, Seattle is 21-10 SU in thirty-one preseason games under Carroll, including a solid 5-2 SU in Week 4 of the preseason. “This will be a game of a lot of opportunity for guys to play,” Carroll said. “This is a really exciting game. I can’t wait to get out there and see these guys go and see what they show us and all that. Don’t mistake it for being an unimportant game. Jobs are on the line Thursday.” Oakland head coach Jack Del Rio does not care about winning games in the preseason. Del Rio is just 2-9 SU in eleven preseason games with the Raiders, including 0-3 SU this season. Del Rio has already stated that none of his starters will play in this game, and his intentions for the team are very clear. “We’ll get our last look at guys we have to make decisions on,” Del Rio said. “That’s really what the last game ends up being about. We understand the challenges we’ll face with this schedule that we have starting on the road in Tennessee, so the bottom line is we’re going to be very diligent in finishing our preparation this week for the Titans” Seattle also has a significant quarterback rotation edge in this game with Trevone Boykin and Austin Davis in a spirited battle for the backup spot. We’ll back Seattle in this game on Thursday night. 9* Play SEAHAWKS (-). |
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08-27-17 | 49ers v. Vikings -6 | 31-32 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. San Francisco has a new head coach this season in Kyle Shanahan, and while he’s an exceptional offensive coordinator, he has zero experience as a head coach. That specific fact puts him and the 49ers at a huge disadvantage in tonight’s game against Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer, especially since this is the third preseason game which typically resembles a regular season game the most. San Francisco’s quarterback rotation of Brian Hoyer, C.J. Beathard and Matt Barkley is not a prototypical unit that has success in preseason games. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason. In fact, Zimmer is 13-2 SU in fifteen preseason games with the Vikings, including a perfect 3-0 SU in the third preseason game of the season. Zimmer was very clear of his intentions prior to the preseason games starting: “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.” The Vikings lost 20-13 in Seattle last week, and off that loss and with this being their most important preseason game, we expect a strong bounce back performance tonight at home. We’ll lay the points with Minnesota in this game on Sunday night. 9* Play VIKINGS (-). |
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08-27-17 | Brewers v. Dodgers -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
Milwaukee will conclude their 3-game series in Los Angeles on Sunday afternoon. The Brewers will start Jimmy Nelson in this game. My numbers project a poor outing for Nelson against the Los Angeles lineup. He projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a weak 4.94 ERA today. The righty comes into this game in terrible current form. Over his last three starts, Nelson has a horrendous 9.00 ERA and an ugly 2.20 WHIP after giving up 15 earned runs on 26 hits in his last 15 innings of work. The Milwaukee starter has also struggled against the Los Angeles lineup in the past. The Dodgers have hit a terrific .320 with an excellent .997 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Nelson during his career. He is backed by an inconsistent Brewers’ bullpen that has 30 losses and 19 blown saves this year. 10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 run line). |
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08-26-17 | Cubs -1.5 v. Phillies | 17-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Chicago lost 7-1 in Philadelphia last night, but we expect a much different outcome on Saturday night. The Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound and he projects to have a fantastic outing against Philadelphia’s lineup based on my numbers. Hendricks is slated to give up 2.2 earned runs with a solid 3.66 ERA and an excellent 1.20 WHIP in this game. The righty also projects to have a strong 8.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.6 strikeout/walk ratio against the Phillies tonight. The Chicago starter comes into this game in terrific current form. Over his last three starts, Hendricks has given up just 4 earned runs on 16 hits in 16.2 innings of work while earning a fantastic 2.16 ERA in those games. Hendricks has had plenty of success against Philadelphia’s offense in the past. The Phillies have hit just .172 with a weak .476 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Hendricks during his career. He is backed by a solid Chicago bullpen that has a 3.32 ERA and 1.22 WHIP on the road this season where they have converted 77% of their save attempts (13-for-17). 10* Play CUBS (-1.5 runline). |
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08-26-17 | Bills v. Ravens -3.5 | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. Buffalo has a new head coach this season in Sean McDermott. He has zero experience as a head coach, so he’s at a huge disadvantage versus Baltimore’s John Harbaugh in this game, especially in a Week 3 situation. And this quote by McDermott prior to the preseason spoke clearly as to his intentions: “I know there’s a score and you want to win games,” he said. “That said, there are things that we want to see and the biggest thing for us is that we are fundamentally improving. There’s a journey.” The Bills are 0-2 in the preseason, and they’ll still be winless after tonight. Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh cares about winning games in the preseason, especially in the first three weeks. In fact, Harbaugh is 26-12 SU in thirty-eight preseason games with the Ravens, including a solid 6-3 SU in Week 3 of the preseason. “We’ve just got a plan that we’re sticking with,” Harbaugh said when asked about tonight’s game against the Buffalo Bills. Baltimore also has the significant quarterback rotation in this game. The Ravens will play Ryan Mallett, and then a combination of Josh Woodrum and Thaddeus Lewis who have specific skills that dominate second and third string defenses in the preseason. Buffalo will trot out Tyrod Taylor early, but they’ll finish the game with a mix of Nathan Peterman and T.J. Yates. We’ll back Baltimore in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play RAVENS (-). |
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08-25-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
San Francisco will begin a 3-game series in Arizona on Friday night. The Giants will start Ty Blach in this game. My numbers project a poor outing for Blach against Arizona’s lineup. He projects to give up 3.5 earned runs with a terrible 5.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP tonight. The lefty also projects to have a weak 5.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.8 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks in this game. Blach enters this game in awful current form. Over his last three starts, Blach owns a horrendous 6.87 ERA and an ugly 1.64 WHIP after giving up 14 earned runs on 24 hits in his last 18.1 innings of work. The San Francisco starter has also struggled against Arizona’s lineup in the past. The Diamondbacks have hit a terrific .364 with an excellent 1.326 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Blach during his career. He is backed by a Giants’ bullpen that has a horrible 5.25 ERA and 1.64 WHIP on the road this year. 10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline). |
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08-24-17 | Padres v. Cardinals -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
San Diego will conclude their 3-game series in St. Louis on Thursday night. The Padres will start Luis Perdomo who has a weak 4.93 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season. My numbers project another poor outing for Perdomo against the St. Louis lineup. He projects to give up 2.9 earned runs with a poor 4.96 ERA in this game. The righty also projects to have a weak 5.6 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Cardinals tonight. Perdomo has been awful in night starts this season. The San Diego starter owns a terrible 5.40 ERA and an ugly 1.68 WHIP after giving up 45 earned runs on 94 hits in 75 innings of work in those outings. The St. Louis offense is in good current form; the Cardinals have averaged 6.1 runs per game over their last seven games. 10* Play CARDINALS (-1.5 runline). |
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08-23-17 | Yankees -1.5 v. Tigers | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
New York beat Detroit 13-4 last night, and we expect another blowout win on Wednesday night. The Yankees will send Luis Severino to the mound and he projects to have a fantastic outing against Detroit’s lineup based on my numbers. Severino is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.51 ERA and an excellent 1.19 WHIP in this game. The righty also projects to have a strong 9.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a terrific 3.5 strikeout/walk ratio against the Tigers tonight. In road games this season, Severino is 5-1 after giving up just 22 earned runs on 68 hits in 82.2 innings of work while earning an excellent 2.40 ERA and a sterling 1.08 WHIP in those outings. Severino will face a Detroit offense that is in bad current form; the Tigers have averaged only averaging 3.9 runs during their past seven games. The Tigers have also been weaker versus right-handed pitchers this season, averaging just 4.7 runs per nine innings with a .250 batting average, compared to 5.5 runs and .282 versus LHP. 10* Play YANKEES (-1.5 runline). |
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08-19-17 | Bears +3 v. Cardinals | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. Chicago head coach John Fox cares about winning games in the preseason. In fact, Fox is 32-29 SU in sixty-one preseason games with three different teams. Chicago’s first-team offense was bad last week, especially quarterback Mike Glennon, so expect a much improved performance tonight: “I can’t wait to get to Arizona,” said Glennon. “We developed some rhythm during the week in practice. A lot of things that we struggled with in the first game, we’re looking to correct those.” Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky was terrific last week, so expect him to shine in the second half against Arizona’s backup defense. Arizona head coach Bruce Arians does not care about winning games in the preseason. Arians is just 8-10 SU in preseason games. Arians calls the offensive plays in the regular season, but he doesn't for the first few preseason games. That job goes to quarterback coach Byron Leftwich who has very little experience in doing so. The Cardinals’ starters will only be on the field for about 20 plays: “Once we get to the game it’s more about getting in shape,” Arians said. That direct quote says everything about Arizona’s mindset for tonight. We’ll back Chicago in this game on Saturday night. 9* Play BEARS (+). |
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08-18-17 | Vikings +4.5 v. Seahawks | 13-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason. In fact, Zimmer is 13-1 SU in fourteen preseason games with the Vikings, including a perfect 3-0 SU in the second preseason game of the season. “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.” We expect more of the same from the Vikings tonight. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll used to care about winning preseason games. But that was back when the Seahawks were an up and coming team. But once Seattle’s incredible depth dried up, Carroll’s preseason focus changed from winning to just preserving his veteran’s health for the regular season. Last week, Seattle put up an impressive 48 points on the Los Angeles Chargers, but don’t expect a repeat of that tonight. The Seahawks also won their Week 1 preseason game last season, but then they lost 18-11 in Week 2 to Minnesota. “We are hoping to continue to grow and see areas of emphasis and concern, and kind of get it taken care of so that we are making progress, but we don’t want to go take a big step and all that.” We’ll back Minnesota in this game on Friday night. 9* Play VIKINGS (+). |
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08-11-17 | Padres v. Dodgers -1.5 | 4-3 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
San Diego will begin a 3-game series in Los Angeles against the Dodgers on Friday night. The Padres will start Clayton Richard who has an awful 5.17 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. My numbers project another poor outing for Richard against Los Angeles’ lineup. He projects to give up 3.1 earned runs with a poor 4.81 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in this game. The lefty also projects to have a weak 6.1 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Dodgers in this game. Richard has been at his worst in away games this season. The San Diego starter is just 1-5 on the road after giving up 33 earned runs on 78 hits in 63 innings of work while earning a terrible 4.71 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in those outings. Richard has also struggled mightily against the Los Angeles offense in the past. The Dodgers have hit a robust .377 (29-for-77) with an excellent 1.000 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Richard during his career. 10* Play DODGERS (-1.5 run line). |
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08-11-17 | Steelers v. Giants -4.5 | 20-12 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin was one who cared about winning preseason games. The Steelers would play with a sense of purpose, but that was during their up and coming days. Things have changed, and Pittsburgh is just 3-14 SU in preseason games over the last four years. Tomlin’s teams were 19-6 SU prior to that, so the record clearly shows that Tomlin takes a different approach to preseason games now. New York head coach Ben McAdoo will be in his second full season with the Giants. McAdoo went just 2-2 SU in the preseason last year, but with experience now, his preparation for tonight’s game shows a sense of urgency to win. “There is a lot of competition in camp, so the more competition, the more guys are on the bubble,” McAdoo said. “Compete your tail off on Friday night.” The Giants also have a fantastic quarterback battle that lends itself perfectly for preseason success. Veterans Josh Johnson and Geno Smith will get the majority of playing time tonight, and both will hold a big advantage over the second and third string defense of Pittsburgh. We’ll back New York in this game on Friday night. 9* Play GIANTS (-). |
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08-10-17 | Vikings -3 v. Bills | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show | |
NFL teams go about preseason games in different ways. Some teams will just go thru the motions, and others actually use the games to prepare them for the regular season. It all depends on the coach’s philosophy. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer cares about winning games in the preseason. In fact, Zimmer is 12-1 SU in thirteen preseason games with the Vikings, including a perfect 4-0 SU in the first preseason game of the season. “We want to be crisp, we want to look sharp and I want to see the things we’ve been practicing being taken to the game field.” We expect more of the same from the Vikings tonight. Buffalo has a new head coach this season in Sean McDermott. He has zero experience as a head coach, so he’s at a huge disadvantage versus Minnesota’s Zimmer in this game. And this quote by McDermott speaks to his intentions tonight: “I know there’s a score and you want to win games,” he said. “That said, there are things that we want to see and the biggest thing for us is that we are fundamentally improving. There’s a journey. We’re looking at fundamentals and making sure we’re getting better in those areas and that those are the things that are sinking into this football team and then obviously we’re going to evaluate the players as well.” We’ll back Minnesota in this game on Thursday night. 9* Play VIKINGS (-). |
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08-07-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Miami will begin a 4-game series in Washington against the Nationals on Monday night. The Marlins will start Chris O’Grady in this game. My numbers project a poor outing for O’Grady against Washington’s lineup. He projects to give up 2.7 earned runs with a poor 4.87 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this evening. The lefty also projects to have a weak 6.2 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Nationals. O’Grady comes into this game in poor current form. Over his last three starts, the Miami starter earned a woeful 5.52 ERA and an ugly 1.77 WHIP after giving up 9 earned runs on 16 hits in 14.2 innings of work. O’Grady has also struggled mightily against Washington’s offense in the past. The Nationals have hit a robust .429 with an excellent 1.286 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against O’Grady during his career. 10* Play NATIONALS (-1.5 runline). |
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07-26-17 | Red Sox -1.5 v. Mariners | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Boston will conclude their 3-game series in Seattle on Wednesday afternoon. The Red Sox have lost the first two games of this series, but we expect a much different outcome today. Boston will send Chris Sale to the mound who has an excellent 1.74 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in his past three starts. The ace projects to have another fantastic outing against Seattle’s lineup based on my numbers. Sale is slated to give up 2.4 earned runs with a solid 3.26 ERA and an excellent 1.03 WHIP in this game. The lefty also projects to have a strong 10.7 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and an outstanding 6.4 strikeout/walk ratio against the Mariners in this game. In daytime games this season, Sale is 5-1 after giving up just 13 earned runs on 31 hits in 56.1 innings of work while earning a terrific 2.08 ERA and a sterling 0.80 WHIP in those games. Seattle’s lineup has hit just .200 (20-for-100) with a weak .548 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Sale during his career. He is backed by a solid Boston bullpen that has a 2.97 ERA and 1.16 WHIP this season. 10* Play RED SOX (-1.5 runline). |
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07-24-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 105 | 10 h 60 m | Show | |
Atlanta will begin a 3-game series in Arizona on Monday night. The Braves will start R.A. Dickey and my numbers project a poor outing for him against Arizona’s lineup. Dickey projects to give up 3.2 earned runs with a terrible 5.19 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in this game. The righty also projects to have a weak 5.9 strikeout rate over 9 innings pitched, and a lowly 1.9 strikeout/walk ratio against the Diamondbacks tonight. Dickey has been awful away from home this season. The Atlanta starter is just 1-4 with a woeful 5.36 ERA and 1.49 WHIP after giving up 28 earned runs on 47 hits in 47 innings of work. Dickey has struggled against Arizona’s lineup throughout his career. The Diamondbacks have hit a solid .328 (22-for-67) with an .811 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage metric) against Dickey. Arizona averages 5.7 runs per game at home with a .275 batting average, so expect Dickey’s road struggles to continue tonight. 10* Play DIAMONDBACKS (-1.5 runline). |