12-20-18 |
Texas Tech v. Duke -8.5 |
|
58-69 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 57 m |
Show
|
|
12-12-18 |
LSU v. Houston -6 |
|
76-82 |
Push |
0 |
20 h 55 m |
Show
|
LSU/Houston 9:00: Houston is a veteran team with a stable backcourt in Brooks and Davis who can light it up. The Cougars have won 21 straight at home and most of the team hasn't forgotten the two straight losses suffered in consecutive years to the Tigers. Tonight, we'll look for sweet revenge. LSU coming off two comfortable wins against lightweights Grambling and Incarnate Word. This will be LSU's first true road game of the season and they should struggle despite getting back some players. LSU is a money burning 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 road tilts. Houston the call.
|
12-08-18 |
Mississippi State -4.5 v. Clemson |
|
82-71 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 51 m |
Show
|
Clemson/Mississippi State 4:00: Both teams have taken on relatively light schedules but will side with the better team here in Mississippi State. Bulldogs' HC Howland has historically built his teams on defense and rebounding. He's gradually recruited the tough, gritty student athletes in the program and this should be a solid year for him and the program. He's got a good inside presence with F Reggie Perry and PG Lamar Peters is blossoming in to a really good floor leader with a good shot. On the other hand, Clemson is dangerous with G Marcquise Reed leading the show; however, he sprained his knee Tuesday and he's not going to be at his dangerous mobile self today. Clemson struggled against St. Peter's on the perimeter (4 for 12) and should carry over here as a traveler. Miss State the call.
|
12-08-18 |
Houston +3 v. Oklahoma State |
|
63-53 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 8 m |
Show
|
Houston/Oklahoma State 4:00: Oklahoma State struggling to take care of the ball (300th in turnover %) and face an in-your-face undefeated Houston team. Houston is somewhat height challenged here but utilized speed and quickness to take out a taller Oregon team earlier this year. Houston's veteran HC Sampson should once again have his men well prepared to handle a wild road assignment. Houston is 5-0 ATS vs a team with a home win % above .600. And they're solid on Saturday at 18-7-1 ATS. Houston has a veteran backcourt in Davis and Brooks playing at high level now and able to withstand momentum shifts at a hostile arena. Cowboys just 1-4 ATS vs AAC and we'll take the points here.
|
12-07-18 |
TCU v. USC +2.5 |
|
96-61 |
Loss |
-103 |
21 h 48 m |
Show
|
|
12-06-18 |
Maryland +7 v. Purdue |
|
60-62 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 17 m |
Show
|
Maryland/Purdue 7:00: Maryland has a young but talented team. Yes, they're turning the ball over too much but they execute on both sides of the floor well enough to win. They have two NBA prospects in Fernando and Jalen Smith. They also have enough perimeter shooters to give Purdue trouble; after all, Purdue allows a generous 36.4% from 3 point range (298th in nation). MD is 13-6 ATS on the road against a team with a home win % above .600. Terrapins are 3-1-2 ATS in this series and the road team is 2-0. Purdue has stumbled in Big 10 play at 7-18-2 ATS, and they're not delivering on their home floor at 4-11 ATS. Value with MD.
|
12-04-18 |
Notre Dame +3.5 v. Oklahoma |
|
80-85 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
|
11-28-18 |
Virginia -3.5 v. Maryland |
|
76-71 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 27 m |
Show
|
Virginia/Maryland 7:30: Maryland erupted on a defenseless Marshall team last Friday. Sure, you can score 100+ on the 310th defense in the nation but face the #2 scoring defense in the nation and Maryland will be searching for answers quick. Virginia just got through locking down another Big 10 opponent in Wisconsin. The Cavaliers are 17-6-1 ATS after allowing less than 50 points. Road team in this series is 4-1 ATS and Virginia should deliver.
|
11-27-18 |
Michigan State v. Louisville +5 |
|
78-82 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 9 m |
Show
|
|
11-06-18 |
Duke +2.5 v. Kentucky |
|
118-84 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
Duke/Kentucky 9:30: Like to take points in this one with the Blue Devils which got the best of Kentucky in this series 7 of the last 9 meetings. Coach K landed the top 3 recruits in the nation: Zion Williamson, Barrett and Reddish. He surely can mold talent and according to inside sources, their meshing well. In addition, freshman PG Tre Jones, who passes very well, has established a nice rhythm offensively with his teammates. Of course, Kentucky is loaded with talent including Stanford transfer Reid Travis; however, I'll look for Duke to eke out the win here on this neutral floor. Duke a solid 11-5 on neutral floors and 10-4 ATS in non-conference. Duke the call.
|
04-02-18 |
Michigan +7 v. Villanova |
Top |
62-79 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 12 m |
Show
|
Michigan/Villanova 9:20: So far, it's been the tournament of the dogs - from UMBC doing the impossible, Nevada making its dramatic comeback against Cincinnati, and Cinderella Loyola-Chicago reaching the Final Four. Tonight, I'm staying with the Wolverines - my pre-tournament pick to win it all. From the NCAA Tournament inception, almost, every eventual champion had its "survival" moment that made them stronger. For Michigan, it was freshman Poole's last second three pointer which crumbled Houston. The Wolverines have that fantastic chemistry, trust and energy. They're stifling defensively, limit turnovers like no one else (#2 in nation behind Virginia) and run an efficient offense with somebody always stepping up. Yes, I realize Villanova is the Golden State Warriors of the NCAA with perimeter marksmen and an emerging big man (Spellman) who's dangerous anywhere on the floor. Nevertheless, the Wolverines have a matchup nightmare themselves in Wagner and a confident floor leader in Abdur-Rahkman who are surrounded by a plethora of well coached players. We'll look for one of the NCAA's most underrated coach's ever - Beilein - to have his men run the Villanova marksmen off the 3 point line, have them play their usual high energy defense, win the turnover battle and deliver the goods.
|
03-31-18 |
Kansas v. Villanova -5 |
|
79-95 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 2 m |
Show
|
|
03-31-18 |
Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5.5 |
|
57-69 |
Win
|
100 |
15 h 22 m |
Show
|
|
03-29-18 |
Penn State v. Utah +4 |
|
82-66 |
Loss |
-105 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
Penn State/Utah 7:00: Utah getting no respect from lines-makers despite impressive wins at St. Mary's and in NIT Semi-Finals vs a very good Western Kentucky team. On Tuesday, WK had Utah down 19-7 early and appeared to be a knockout; however, Krystowiak outcoached his counterpart (Stansbury) the rest of the way en-route to an impressive win to advance here. Utah has a versatile PG Bibbins who is underappreciated in comparison to Penn State's Tony Carr yet equally effective. And veteran front-liner Collette, who looks like a 40 something pick-up player, has been awesome in the low block on both ends of the floor. I thought this game would be a tight, competitive line; consequently, I'll take the two buckets and wouldn't be surprised with an outright.
|
03-27-18 |
Western Kentucky -105 v. Utah |
Top |
64-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
42 h 14 m |
Show
|
Western Kentucky/Utah 7:00: Been riding the Hilltoppers in this tourney and surely not getting off the bandwagon now. They're offense is efficient (49.7% from floor - 8th in nation), rebound well and limit turnovers. This team plays with poise on the road and not intimidated by non-conference (4-0 ATS) or upper echelon teams 12-4 ATS vs teams above .600. On the other hand, Utah has been solid too, off an impressive OT win at St. Mary's; however, just 1-5-1 ATS on neutral floors and struggled in non-conference games at Butler and UNLV. I like the toughness and road savvy from WK's upper classmen Bearden, Coleby, Thompson and the dominant Justin Johnson. And throw in the raw talent of freshman Hollingsworth - this team is rolling behind tournament primed head coach Stansbury.
|
03-25-18 |
Duke v. Kansas +3 |
|
81-85 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 20 m |
Show
|
|
03-25-18 |
Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova |
|
59-71 |
Loss |
-101 |
10 h 35 m |
Show
|
|
03-24-18 |
Florida State v. Michigan -4.5 |
|
54-58 |
Loss |
-107 |
20 h 42 m |
Show
|
|
03-24-18 |
Loyola-Chicago +2 v. Kansas State |
Top |
78-62 |
Win
|
100 |
17 h 47 m |
Show
|
Loyola-Chicago/K State 6:05: Loyola has proven their toughness knocking off #6, #3 and #7 seeds. No disrespect to #9 seed K State but not a fan of their offense. Wilcats' top player Wade was limited in Thursday's game and forced Sneed to be the go-to guy. He surely stepped up in that role but Loyola's well disciplined defense will be ready for him today. K State plays sound defense but doesn't have that smooth flow to their offense and it should cost them against the #5 defense in the nation in terms of points allowed. And offensively, the Ramblers don't put up many points but are very efficient with the rock; after all, they are shooting at a 50.7% clip from the field this season - good enough for 3rd in nation. And they're 19th in the nation from beyond the arc at 39.7%. Throw in some divine intervention from Sister Jean and the Ramblers proved they can hang with the big dogs. I'm rolling with the Ramblers here.
|
03-23-18 |
Texas Tech +2 v. Purdue |
|
78-65 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
Texas Tech/Purdue 9:55: Texas Tech is quietly working its way to the Elite 8 and wouldn't be surprised about an outright here. The Red Raiders have beaten seven Top 25 teams this season including an impressive win at Kansas earlier this year. The Raiders' floor leader Kennan Evans does an outstanding job running the show and he's got a solid surrounding cast. I do realize Purdue has a plethora of 3 point shooting marksmen but Haas (elbow) was a key ingredient in setting up those open looks for the perimeter guys. Sure, freshman Matt Haarms did a respectable job securing minutes against Butler, but he's no Haas. I like the toughness TT exhibits in the frontcourt and that could spell trouble for Painter's bunch. I'll take the bucket with Texas Tech.
|
03-23-18 |
West Virginia +5 v. Villanova |
Top |
78-90 |
Loss |
-105 |
18 h 5 m |
Show
|
West Virginia/Villanova 7:25: Lots of action on Villanova after their convincing blow out tournament wins. They're clearly living up to their #1 seeded position. Bettors are convinced that 'Nova's blistering 44.5% trey dropping in 5 tournament games this season is a harbinger for lighting up a West Virginia defense that's 311th in the nation in defending the perimeter. And if we think about the Wildcats' 68 trey bombs dropping in at a 47% clip in the first two games of this tournament, West Virginia is in for a long night, right? As I see it, I'm going to look for those percentages to level out. WV's Huggins has been around a long time and achieved great success in tournament play. The "Press Virginia" strategy he's coached has thrived on turnovers and disrupting a team's flow. I do realize the extreme talent among the Wildcats backcourt and they don't disrupt easy but Villanova hasn't faced this kind of full court pressure all year and not easy to prep for. WV's Jevon Carter is a nightmare on both ends of the floor and will give Brunson all he can handle and more. Carter has a solid backcourt partner in Miles and a dominant frontcourt guy in Konate. Moreover, a pretty deep bench. Bottom line, West Virginia lost their legs in early January but got them back for this tournament and I'm going to look for the Mounties to pull the upset here.
|
03-22-18 |
Texas A&M v. Michigan -143 |
Top |
72-99 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 48 m |
Show
|
Analysis filled in later...
|
03-21-18 |
Western Kentucky +4.5 v. Oklahoma State |
Top |
92-84 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
Western Kentucky/Oklahoma State 8:00: Undervalued Hilltoppers squad with five players averaging double figures, a few senior floor leaders in F Justin Johnson and G Darius Thompson, and a coach (Stansbury) who did some good things in tournament hoops while with Miss State years ago. And keep in mind this team traded blows earlier in the year in tournament action with Villanova (easy cover) and won outright over Purdue. Sure, they had a brief rough patch in early March but came out with guns a blazing in Conference Tournament action and won first two NIT games in convincing fashion as a dog. I see them dangerous here too. They limit turnovers, play sound defense and can trade buckets with Oklahoma State. I'll gladly take the points, which has now bumped to near a touchdown!
|
03-20-18 |
Penn State +2.5 v. Marquette |
|
85-80 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 42 m |
Show
|
Penn State/Marquette 7:00: This would most likely be a Top Play if 6'9" Watkins (out) and Bostick (questionable) were available. Marquette likes to run and has a dangerous trifecta of perimeter shooters in Rousey, Howard and Cain; therefore, Penn State could use a nice 8 man rotation on the road. Nevertheless, I'll take the points with the better defensive and rebounding team. Tony Carr got back to his smooth offensive game at ND and he's got a pretty good supporting cast, including top rebounder Josh Reaves. The Nittany Lions have shown fight on the road most of the year, including an outright win at Ohio State, covers at Mich State and Purdue. And Penn State delivered a quality win in the 2nd Round of this tournament at Notre Dame; as a matter of fact, Penn State is 7-1 ATS as a traveler and like the fact they limit turnovers. Penn State the call.
|
03-19-18 |
Western Kentucky +5 v. USC |
|
79-75 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 18 m |
Show
|
Western Kentucky/USC 11:30: Value with Hilltoppers which are playing their best basketball. Trojans, which barely snuck by mid major UNC Asheville in double OT on Tuesday, have some key cogs out for various reasons. USC's inside bangers - Metu (resting with NBA more important), Boatwright (knee) will be a void against a pretty tough frontcourt of Western Kentucky. All Conference USA F Justin Johnson leads a formidable inside group that out-boarded BC in the first round. And WK Head Coach Stansbury is battle tested in tournaments; remember, he did a nice job when he was at Miss State. He's got a well balanced offense and disciplined defense to bring to the Galen Center tonight. Hilltoppers, if you recall, in November turned in solid tournament play - covering against Villanova and beating Purdue outright! Hilltoppers are once again in a solid tournament mode while USC on automatic pilot in an arena without much student body screaming support. WK the call.
|
03-18-18 |
Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 |
Top |
75-70 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 43 m |
Show
|
|
03-18-18 |
Clemson +2 v. Auburn |
|
84-53 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 50 m |
Show
|
|
03-18-18 |
Syracuse +9.5 v. Michigan State |
|
55-53 |
Win
|
101 |
3 h 40 m |
Show
|
|
03-18-18 |
Butler v. Purdue -3.5 |
|
73-76 |
Loss |
-110 |
1 h 39 m |
Show
|
|
03-18-18 |
Mississippi State +5.5 v. Baylor |
|
78-77 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 33 m |
Show
|
|