Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-11-25 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 12-32 | Loss | -115 | 88 h 57 m | Show |
Chargers/Texans 4:30: Both teams are solid and disruptive defensively; however, I believe the Chargers have the better balanced and more disciplined offense, which should ultimately decide the game. Now that JK Dobbins is healthy, the identity of Los Angeles (run the rock and play action frequently) is in full force. Houston, on the other hand, is in the bottom of the league in penalties, interceptions, fumbles. Moreover, Stroud has been sacked an average 3.2 times a game (30th). That doesn't bode well against the sack happy Chargers that also lead the league in points allowed. Chargers find ways to win by limiting mistakes and making plays and the right calls in critical situations. Houston not quite there yet. Chargers the call. |
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01-05-25 | Vikings +3 v. Lions | Top | 9-31 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
Vikings/Lions 8:20: Stakes are high. Winner receives NFC #1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. Loser drops to wild card on the road to face either Rams, Bucs or Falcons. Lions snuck by the first game. Vikings cleaned up turnover problem since and functioning well on both sides of the ball. Vikings are fully loaded offensively with Jefferson, Addison, TE Hockenson, RB Aaron Jones and add Jalen Nailor to the mix. Darnold brimming with confidence and should be able to attack the back end of the Lions' defense that's been vulnerable most of the season (32nd in pass yards allowed). Vikings' defense has its issues too and Jeff Goff is as dangerous as they come at home vs heavy blitzing teams. As this game plays itself out, I look for O'Connell to make the right critical decisions and deliver. Vikings 12-4 ATS on the year including 4-0 ATS run. Vikings the call. |
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01-01-25 | Ohio State -132 v. Oregon | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
Ohio State/Oregon 5:00: Rematch from October 12th 32-31 shootout. In that game, Ohio State had costly fumbles that stressed the defense. And Will Howard is still steamed he slid on the Oregon 26-yard line as time expired in defeat. Both teams have improved since that game, but Ohio State has gotten situated on the offensive line - their Achilles Heel - as of last week against the formidable front of Tennessee. Oregon didn't play since December 7th and could be shaking off rust. Both offenses are explosive but like the edge the Buckeyes control defensively. Ohio State delivers! |
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12-29-24 | Packers v. Vikings | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 37 m | Show |
Packers/Vikings 4:25: Playoff implications for both teams. Vikings fighting with Detroit for the top spot in the division and Green Bay jockeying for position to improve playoff seeding. Green Bay is looking to avenge earlier season loss when they were nearly run out of Green Bay in the first half before a strong second half comeback that just fell short. But Green Bay defense not at full strength and that's a concern. WLB Quay Walker plus C Alexander and Safety Evan Williams are out. Minnesota's QB Darnold has a wealth of talent at his disposal with Justin Jefferson, Addison, Aarron Jones and throw in a healthy TE Hockenson, can't see GB stopping them. On the other hand, QB Love won't have vertical threat Watson (knee) to go to. Vikings' defense still playing at an elite level and mostly healthy. We'll grab Minnesota here. |
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12-22-24 | Titans +4 v. Colts | Top | 30-38 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Titans/Colts 1:00: A highly contested series in the AFC South here. Titans in a revenge mode from Week Six 20-17 loss. Titans now have a fighting chance without interception king - Will Levis. Mason Rudolph, who's actually 9-6-1 as a starter in his career with Pittsburgh and here in Tennessee, will get the nod. He should be able to utilize his pretty decent skill cast in a more disciplined way. And defensively, the Titans, which are #2 in yards allowed, won't be thrust into defending the goal line as often in quick change turnover mode - as Levis put them in so often. On the other hand, not confident in Colts' QB Richardson, who completes a meager 47% of his passes and regressed over the last few weeks. Titans 4-1 ATS last 5 at Indianapolis. Titans the call here. |
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12-15-24 | Dolphins +3 v. Texans | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Dolphins/Texans 1:00: Texans getting by in their wins and comfortable atop the weak AFC South. Stroud has been sacked way too much, and defensively - defensive back Pitre (pec) is a big loss. Dolphins, meanwhile, have rallied around Tua. Tua has completed at least 70% of his passes in 7 straight games. Since the weather will be Dolphins' friendly (62 degrees), Hill, Waddle, TE Jonnu Smith and RB Achane should be too much for the Texans to contain. Texans 2-7 ATS in last 9 as a favorite against a less than .500 team. Miami 7-1 ATS after the Jets. And don't trust the Texans off a bye. Remember last year after their bye week, they got beaten outright by the lowly Carolina Panthers. Dolphins looking to hold on for their playoff lives should deliver. |
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12-08-24 | Bills v. Rams OVER 49.5 | Top | 42-44 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Bills/Rams 4:25: Projected a 50 point total and lines makers came in accurate. Bills have scored 30 or more points in six straight games. Rams' defense has its moments but remains inconsistent under DC Shula. Bills' offensive line is similar in strength to Philadelphia's. And a few weeks back, the Eagles ran roughshod (314 yards) over the Rams. Bills' offense every bit as potent. Defensively, Bills' defense could yield some points here. Stafford has Nacua and Kupp back in the fray, and he could have his old go-to big target TE Tyler Higbee (off IR) make a cameo. And RB Kyren Williams could have a solid game; after all, Bills' defense allows a generous 4.9 YPC (30th). McVay 13-1 O/U as a dog vs an opponent off a double digit SU win. "Over" the call. |
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12-07-24 | Iowa State +1.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 19-45 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
Iowa State/Arizona State Noon: Arizona State is one of the surprise teams in the Big 12. In pre-season, they were projected to be a bottom feeder of the conference; however, first year HC Dillingham hammered the transfer portal and established a great identity to this team, including a bruising run game with RB Skattebo and solid pass game with QB Leavitt; however, Leavitt won't have his top vertical threat - Tyson (out) to go to. And that's a big loss. Next leading receiver is Guillory with an underwhelming 291 yards receiving. Cyclones are one of the most disciplined secondaries in the nation. The Cyclones were projected to be a contender for the Big 12 Title. They didn't disappoint. Iowa State did have a rough patch in early November losing back-to-back games but battled back strong winning three straight. Iowa State has a veteran team with few weaknesses. A good QB in Rocco Becht, run game and solid defense under one of college football's best - DC John Heacock. Cyclones have taken a lot of slack for giving up a ton of yards on the ground and that scares potential backers with breakaway RB Skattebo. However, Cyclones control a Top 20 defense where it counts most - on the scoreboard - allowing under 20 PPG. And let's not forget Iowa State's HC Matt Campbell is a sweet 30-12 ATS as a conference dog, including 14-2 ATS vs foes coming off a SU/ATS win. Iowa State the call. |
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12-01-24 | Chargers -1 v. Falcons | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Chargers/Falcons 1:00: Analysis to follow... |
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11-30-24 | Notre Dame v. USC +8 | Top | 49-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
ND/USC 3:30: Last season, football was going great for the first six weeks of the season for Lincoln Riley's Trojans. The 6-0 Trojans went into South Bend and got demolished 48-20. That demolition was the beginning of the end for their then DC Grinch - as USC plunged on a 1-5 SU slide for the rest of the regular season. USC is more equipped to handle top tier teams now. They're new DC Lynn is doing a respectable job keeping them in games. USC offense not as potent as last year's but Riley made a good move with QB Maiava as he led them to back-to-back wins. USC stays in games and a dangerous dog here. They're playing well at home and 4-0 ATS at the Coliseum vs ND. ND, coming off a blowout win over Army, must now reconfigure their defensive scheme from assignment football to the wide open, well balanced attack of USC. We'll grab the points. |
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11-30-24 | Illinois -8 v. Northwestern | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Illinois/NW Noon: Last season, NW snuck up on teams to produce a magical season including a win at Illinois in the regular season finale. This season, NW is having trouble generating offense. Their pedestrian offense is ranked dead last in a variety of categories including on the scoreboard at 16.9 PPG. They're outmatched against winning teams and coming off back to back blowouts. Illinois, ranked 23rd and likely out of the CFP, is set on revenge here. Bielema has a good QB in Altmeyer, decent defense, and likes going on the road vs teams below .500 where he's 12-4 ATS laying points. We'll lay the points here. |
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11-24-24 | Cardinals v. Seahawks | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 5 m | Show |
Cardinals/Seahawks 4:25: Going to stay on the hot Cardinals. They've won four straight and coming off a bye. Unlike last season, when coming off a bye they were out of the playoff picture, they're atop the leader board of the division and Gannon is doing a nice job steering the ship. QB Murray is having a career season passing (69% completions/ 12 TD/3 INT) along with being a big part of the #5 rushing offense in the league and #2 in YPC. Seattle's defense has fallen off from the 3rd week and vulnerable here. TE McBride turning into a big time target and go-to guy. And Harrison Jr. is living up to his billing. Seattle offense is humming but passing too much and never a good thing for Geno Smith. Arizona defense primed to grab some interceptions here. Cardinals a sweet 5-0 ATS vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Arizona looking to finally beat Seattle after 5 failed attempts. This sixth meeting should be a charm. |
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11-23-24 | Illinois +2 v. Rutgers | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Illinois/Rutgers Noon: Rutgers feeling good on a 2-0 SU/ATS run. Against Minnesota, they got a big jarring hit from their linebacker Powell to force a fumble late to upset the Gophers. That's a rare situation for Rutgers; after all, they're 3-14-1 ATS vs greater than .500 conference opponents. Illinois, which captured 3 of the last 4 wins and covers in this series, will surely be focused. And if Rutgers does stall out the run game of Illinois, Altmeyer is capable of airing it out successfully against a Rutgers' secondary that's struggled to defend the pass. On the other hand, Rutgers' QB Kaliakmanis does not pose a threat to a well disciplined Fighting Illini secondary. Kaliakmanis has completed just 55% of his passes and averages a meager 2.1 YPC running. Illini will surely focus on stopping 1000+ rusher Monangai. Illinois has shown strength on the road under HC Bielema. They're 11-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 2 points or more since 2021. Illinois the call. |
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11-17-24 | Ravens v. Steelers +3 | Top | 16-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Ravens/Steelers 1:00: Steelers still not getting respect. They've won 7 of the last 8 in this series and this is, by far, the best Steelers' team over that span. Wilson has given the Steelers a deep ball game and the running game is cooking. Moreover, Steelers control the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. That's Steelers football! Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to struggle with that secondary coverage under new DC. Tomlin is 30-12 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins, including 12-2 vs their division. Steelers the call. |
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11-16-24 | Kansas +2.5 v. BYU | Top | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
Kansas/BYU 10:15: Last week, BYU got bailed out by the refs and delivered a dramatic victory. They have to take on a surging Kansas team that is peaking at the right time. Upset alert here. If there is a chink in the armor of BYU, it's their run defense which has given up 4.5 YPC vs conference foes. Right now, Kansas has the run game cooking with Daniels and Neal. Kansas is 10-3 ATS as a dog of less than 8 points vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. Kansas the call. |
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11-10-24 | Broncos +8 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Broncos/Chiefs 1:00: Chiefs coming into this one off a short week (MNF). Overall, their health is good, including Mahomes (ankle); however, Denver is more hungry to get back in the win column after a double-digit thrashing by Baltimore. Sean Payton is a sweet 20-9 SU / 22-7 ATS vs division opponents coming off a win, including 10-1 ATS as a dog of 4 or more points. We'll take the points. |
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11-09-24 | Georgia -1 v. Ole Miss | Top | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Georgia/Ole Miss 3:30: Ole Miss is on the outside looking in at a CFP spot. Blocking the entrance way is the SEC heavyweight Georgia. Bulldogs have won 11 of the last 12 in this series. Sure, Kiffin has, once again, one of the most explosive offenses in the nation, but usually sputter in the big games. Georgia's defense is ramping up again off two strong showings. And offensively, if Smart can keep interception prone QB Beck settled down, Bulldogs have enough fire power to deliver again. Georgia the call. |
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11-03-24 | Chargers -1 v. Browns | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
Chargers/Browns 1:00: Chargers have been solid vs losing teams and should deliver. They have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL with a ball hawking secondary and Bosa (hamstring) - listed as questionable - could aid in bolstering their sacks. Browns' QBs have been sacked more than any other QBs in the NFL at a rate of 4.6 per game. Winston does give the Browns life and the offensive line is getting healthier. However, defensively, Browns won't have their leading tackler Onusu-Koramoah (out) and starting MLB Hicks (Out). Harbaugh is all about establishing a run game and that doesn't bode well for Cleveland's run stop unit. QB Herbert found his range with McConkey last week. Browns' secondary won't have their top corner - Denzel Ward (out). Cleveland is coming off an emotional win last week but should come up short here. Stefanski a poor 2-10 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS win vs greater than .500 opponent. Weather should be seasonably warm (63 degrees game time) in Cleveland as well. Chargers the call. |
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11-02-24 | Vanderbilt +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Vanderbilt/Auburn 12:45: Hugh Freeze has been a winner at every stop he made as a HC. His Kryptonite, however, has been Vanderbilt's QB Diego Pavia. Pavia, while playing for New Mexico State in 2022, beat Freeze when he was at Liberty - 49-14. Freeze left for Auburn in 2023, and hosted New Mexico State late in the season only to have Pavia and his Aggies beat him decisively again -31-10 as a 25 point dog. Today, Freeze has to face Pavia with his new team - Vanderbilt - and he's going to have the cold sweats again. All Pavia has done was lead the Commodores to outright upsets over Virginia Tech as a 13 point dog, almost outright at Missouri as a 17' point pup, outright vs SEC powerhouse Alabama at +23, and followed up with an outright at KY as a 13 point dog. Last week, the Commodores made a fierce comeback late to put a scare in Texas as a 17 point dog. Vanderbilt HC Lea did a super job in the transfer portal filling his roster on both sides of the ball and struck gold with Pavia. We'll look for gritty Pavia and the Commodores to no longer take a back seat to anyone in the SEC this season. |
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10-27-24 | Bears v. Commanders +1.5 | Top | 15-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Bears/Commanders 4:25: Bears winning games with great defense; however, they have a few key cogs in the secondary out and that could be costly vs the #1 scoring offense in the NFL. Rover - Brisker and Nickel Back - Gordon are important as run stoppers in zone defense in addition to their solid coverage. With Washington QB Daniels (ribs) getting the green light to play, we'll look for the offense to keep clicking under OC Kingsbury. Defensively, Commanders not great but making progress weekly. Bears' offensive line has been shaky in spots allowing 3.3 sacks per game. And you know how much Dan Quinn loves exotic blitzes. Quinn is a sweet 15-4 ATS as a dog off a SU win. Commanders 7-0 ATS off double digit ATS win. We'll grab the more well balanced Commanders. |
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10-26-24 | Kansas +10 v. Kansas State | Top | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 18 h 51 m | Show |
Kansas/Kansas State 8:00: Kansas had a breakout season last year in Lance Leipold's third year as HC; this year, they've underachieved and, although staying in games, unable to close. Last week, they got it together with a blowout win over Houston. Kansas fired up to save their season with a win against their in-state rival whom they haven't beaten in their last 15 attempts. Kansas clearly not as bad as their record indicates. QB Jalon Daniels is a baller and he's got run game help from Devin Neal. Defensively, they're respectable too. We'll look for the Jayhawks to keep this one tight. |
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10-20-24 | Chiefs +2 v. 49ers | Top | 28-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Chiefs/49ers 4:25: No one makes better use of bye week than Andy Reid at a staggering 21-4 SU including 8-3 SU with KC. And he owns the 49ers' head man. Shannahan 0-7 SU as an assistant and head coach vs him. KC has their share of injuries but manage to resurrect careers of former guys like Smith-Schuster and RB Hunt. It's what they do. Statistically, numbers mediocre at best. Mahomes has thrown as many INTs as TDs. He won't win you lots of fantasy points but will find a way to win the football game. He's not always great, just great when he has to be. As for the defense, DC Spagnuolo dialing up the right formula early this season - #6 scoring defense in the league. We'll grab the Chiefs again. |
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10-19-24 | Colorado +2.5 v. Arizona | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Colorado/Arizona 4:00: Arizona not the same team they were under Fisch as they are under Brennan. Arizona QB Fifita already has nine interceptions. His top receiver - All American - McMillan will surely be shaded by two-way superstar Colorado's lockdown CB - Travis Hunter (shoulder) who is good to go. Colorado is looking to avenge last year's close 34-31 loss. This season, Colorado an overall better team while Arizona has regressed under Brennan. Arizona has a disturbing trend of 1-10 ATS off a double-digit SU loss vs an opponent with revenge. Edge to Colorado today. |
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10-12-24 | Iowa State -3 v. West Virginia | Top | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
Iowa State/West Virginia 8:00: Respect the Mountaineers but Iowa State is rolling. The Cyclones have a much more well balance team now. Iowa State, which is very experienced with a ton of returning production from last year, is on a mission with QB Rocco Becht at the helm. Becht has a veteran surrounding cast including a strong run game with RB Jackson. Defensively, Cyclones may yield yardage but are outstanding keeping teams out of the end zone at 10 PPG (6th nationally). Cyclones 7-1 ATS vs opponent off back-to-back SUATS wins (last as a dog). We'll lay a FG with Iowa State on the road. |
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10-06-24 | Jets v. Vikings OVER 40.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Jets/Vikings 9:30: This one is in London on the sport turf field of Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Rain in the forecast and no field protection from the elements. Total driven down to a reachable level. Vikings' defense has been strong under DC Flores. He likes to blitz 41% of the time (2nd only to Denver) and in the process yields more passing yards than any other team. Teams haven't been able to cash in on explosive plays. Look for seasoned veteran Aaron Rodgers to dissect man coverage with Wilson, Lazard and Mike Williams - all with top end speed. And TE Conklin has been a reliable move-the-chain target, and Breece Hall a solid check down. On the other hand, brilliant offensive mind of Kevin O'Connell has his guy in QB Darnold who is distributing the ball well to his talented receiving corps, including uncoverable Justin Jefferson. Jets 12-1 O/U as a road dog of less than 7 points vs a .666 or greater opponent. "Over" the call. |
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10-05-24 | Rutgers v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 7-14 | Push | 0 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
Rutgers/Nebraska 4:00: Jury still out on Rutgers. 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS but not all impressive. Last week, Washington ran all over them (207 Yards) and Will Rogers dropped 314 on them through the air. I do give the Scarlett Knights credit for limiting them in scoring; however, unlikely today in Lincoln. Nebraska HC Rhule is doing his thing in turnarounds, and I see it with the Cornhuskers. The Black Shirts appear to be back. 'Huskers sport a Top 20 defense and #9 nationally in scoring allowing just 12.2 PPG. Rutgers main weapon is RB Monangai who is an absolute beast; however, this is the best run stop unit the 'Knights have faced. Rutgers too one dimensional - relying on Monangai too much and QB Kaliakmanis not adept enough to pick apart the solid secondary of Nebraska. On the other hand, Rutgers' defense yields lots of yardage but believe 5* Freshman QB Dylan Raiola (70% completions/ 9 TD/2 INT) can deliver in the red zone. Rutgers history of 1-12-1 ATS vs above .500 conference opponents is a concern. And remember, Schiano, in his 2nd term with Rutgers, served 16 years with this program. Take Nebraska! |
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09-29-24 | Commanders v. Cardinals OVER 48.5 | Top | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
Commanders/Cardinals 4:05: These two teams not the usual slothing offenses of yesteryear. Former Arizona HC Kingsbury doing a great job mentoring #! pick Jayden Daniels. He finally got a guy who can utilize the weaponry - McLaurin, Noah Brown, McCaffrey, and resurrecting career of former Pro Bowl TE Zach Ertz. Daniels completing an astonishing 80% of his passes without an interception. Arizona defense - middle of the road at best. And the big news is they got a run game in Brian Robinson Jr. Another testament to a solid offensive line. On the other hand, Arizona OC Petzing doing a decent job fueling the #4 scoring offense. Murray has found his range with #1 pick Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. And, like Washington, Arizona sound in running the rock - Conner. Both defenses struggling in sacking the QB and stopping the run. These teams are a combined 4-2 O/U on the season and we'll stay on the "over" here. |
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09-28-24 | UL-Lafayette v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 41-38 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
ULL/WF 3:30: WF Clawson a pretty good HC who's been keeping his team in the thick of things in ACC for years. His Demon Deacons have fallen on hard times recently and coming off a couple of tough losses, including a blowout loss to heavyweight Ole Miss. Clawson had an extra week to coach up his men and he's been pretty successful at that to the tune of 6-1 ATS the last 5 years off a bye. Moreover, He's 5-0 ATS at home off back-to-back SU/ATS losses vs .600 or less opponent. Furthermore, he's 15-6 ATS at home off a home game, including a sweet 9-0 ATS when opponent is coming off a loss. Ragin' Cajuns lost a shootout to Tulane last week. Cajuns got a few victories early in the season against lightweights Grambling and Kennesaw State before last weeks loss. Cajuns were tearing up the league in four seasons under Billy Napier with a +26 in net turnovers but now minus 8 in that role under Desormeaux. We'll look for the more established program of WF to get it together this week. Wake Forest the call. |
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09-22-24 | Chargers +2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 10-20 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Chargers/Steelers 1:00: Harbaugh putting his stamp on the Chargers early. Harbaugh coached teams have a strong run game and play strong defense. Chargers #2 in the NFL running the football and #2 defensively in yards allowed. Tomblin takes a similar approach. Steelers' ground game in the mid-range tier and defensively keeping teams out of the end zone (allowing 8 PPG). Today, Pittsburgh enters with a thin line due to injuries. RT Fautanu and G Seumato out. Consequently, look for the Chargers' defense to win the line of scrimmage battle. On the other hand, QB Herbert (ankle) should be good to go. RB Dobbins having a resurgence in his career. Chargers should do enough to get er done. Harbaugh a strong 32-13 ATS in his NFL coaching career vs non-division opponents, including 8-2 ATS as a dog. Chargers the call. |
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09-21-24 | Baylor +2 v. Colorado | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -109 | 91 h 32 m | Show |
Baylor/Colorado 8:00: Still not sold on Colorado. Some real good players but glaring weaknesses. Their run game is not getting it done (2.9 YPC). If Sanders thinks he's going to torch the well-disciplined secondary of Baylor, he's got another thing coming. Baylor's defensive minded - Coach Arranda has the personnel to continue to stop the run and tee off on the QB. Offensively, Baylor improved dramatically from a year ago. A new OC Spavital and QB - Finn - transfer from Toledo headline an offense with a loaded backfield and experienced offensive line. Baylor a sweet 12-1 ATS off a non-conference game vs a conference opponent. The Bears should give a rude welcome to the Big 12 to the Buffaloes. Baylor the call. |
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09-15-24 | Raiders v. Ravens -8 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Raiders/Ravens 1:00: Last week, Raiders had trouble establishing the run (3.2 YPC); consequently, Chargers recovered 2 fumbles and teed off on Minshew (4 sacks), INT. It will not get easier against another strong defense. Ravens had a few extra rest and prep days to stew over close loss to KC. Ravens' offense should be much better this week as they look to get RB Henry going. QB Jackson has a new go-to target in TE matchup nightmare Likely. Ravens 5-0 ATS off a Thursday Night game. Baltimore cruises. |
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09-14-24 | Indiana -3 v. UCLA | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
Hoosiers/UCLA 7:30: Hoosiers should give the Bruins an unruly welcome to the Big 10 tonight. Bruins laid an egg in Hawaii with poor offensive line play resulting in a sluggish run game (3.6 YPC) forcing QB Garbers (2 INTs) to win it with his feet and arm. Fortunately for the Bruins, they squeaked by in a 16-13 come from behind win but failed to cover the 13' point spread. Sure, they had an extra week of prep to get it together but I'm not sure it's enough time. Indiana, with new Coach Cignetti, calling the shots, could be a contender in the Big 10 almost immediately. Cignetti led former FCS powerhouse James Madison to a successful season in its inaugural season in the FBS going 10-1 SU in the Sun Belt Division. And the Hoosiers' former HC Tom Allen kept the cupboard stocked with 21 returning starters and solid returning production. Cignetti nabbed a rock-solid QB in 5th year man Kurtis Roarke (Ohio U transfer) to lead a potent offensive attack. Hoosiers blew out their two lightweight opponents and should give UCLA a tough time. Hoosiers' defense line - alone- collected 11 sacks in the first two games. We'll lay a field goal with the better constructed and coached team - Indiana. |
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09-08-24 | Rams +4.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
Rams/Lions 8:20: Road team in this series covered last 3. Rams held their own in last year's playoff game, nearly getting the SU win on a 24-23 defeat. This season, Rams' offense is loaded with a healthy Kupp, NFL Offensive Rookie of Year - Nacua, bolstered offensive line, 1100+ rusher Kyren Williams, and a healthy Matt Stafford. Stafford is 6-1 ATS in season opening games. McVay is 6-1 SU/ATS in season openers. As for the defense, new DC Shula has youth so there can be growing pains. With Aaron Donald (retired) gone, transition should not be too difficult. Florida State high draft choices Fiske and edge rusher phenom Verse should impact immediately. Detroit is loaded and hungry but overvalued and we'll grab the points. |
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08-29-24 | North Dakota State +10.5 v. Colorado | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
NDS/Colorado 8:00: Putting NDS on the early schedule may be a questionable decision after tonight. Bison have stunned a number of FBS programs and almost stunned Arizona in 2022. The Bison do have a new HC Polasek. He has good experience, including serving on the Bison staff years ago. He controls a deeply rooted football program that continues to grit out winning football. They rely on a strong run game and solid defense. Colorado is saw 40 exits and 35 additions this offseason. They have talent and returning production but question the discipline. They committed the third most penalties in the nation last season. And Sanders was 1-3 ATS as a favorite last year. Take the points. |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +1 | Top | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 330 h 56 m | Show |
49ers/Chiefs 6:30: At first glance, after 49ers and Chiefs won their respective games in the championship round, I expected KC to be a 1' or even 2-point favorite in this matchup; after all, KC, after an underachieving regular season with numerous wide receiver mishaps, drops, offensive line holding penalties, cleaned their game up when it really counted - playoffs. SF, on the other hand, ravaged through regular season opponents, for the most part but struggled at times during the playoffs. Therefore, Chiefs should be that slight favorite after second and third glances. KC Spagnuolo not only had KC playing at a high level during the regular season (2nd in points allowed at 17.3 PPG) but kept them playing at a high level during the playoffs, including a virtuoso performance against Baltimore, as I predicted. Look for Spagnuolo to dial up the confusion against SF's Brock Purdy, who is reduced to mediocrity facing zone coverage - which KC doesn't show much but could Sunday. KC secondary has been consistently strong with C Sneed and company. And disruptive forces Chris Jones and Karlaftis have gotten it done rushing the QB and helping against the run. Sure, McCaffery and company will get their yards, but Bolton and, now healthy, Gay make plays when needed. Offensively, Pacheco should get the run game generated against an underachieving run-stop-unit that promises to be better tonight. They haven't fulfilled that promise the last two playoff games and I'm not buying it tonight vs a solid KC offense that proved G Allegretti could step in for All Pro Thuney without missing a beat. And then there is Mahomes - 3-0 vs SF and on the precipice of history as one of 4 other QBs with 3 Super Bowl wins. In addition to Kelce and Rice, Moore is off the IR and should contribute to his success. Chiefs the call. |
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01-28-24 | Chiefs +4.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 58 m | Show |
Chiefs/Ravens 3:00: Ravens surely seem like world beaters now. I was on them last week vs Houston but I'm fading them here. Sure, KC offense not as explosive as it was the past few years but an improved defense has created a good balance. Like I said last week when I was on KC (+2') vs Buffalo, Spagnuolo does a nice job scheming and preparing his unit. He'll find a way to limit Lamar Jackon's effectiveness. Offensively, KC won't have their G Thuney (pec) but his replacement - Allegretti has seen plenty of action in the trenches for KC and well respected among his peers. And Pacheco is good to go. As for Mahomes, few teams limit him this time of year; after all, he's 13-3 as a playoff starter. His teammates seem to rally around him in big games as exhibited by Rice two weeks ago and even Valdes-Scantling last week. And he's 3-1 vs Lamar Jackson. Jackson will be this year's MVP but as Ric Flair said, "To be the man, you got to beat the man." I'll side with Mahomes and the Chiefs. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +7 v. Lions | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -120 | 64 h 15 m | Show |
Bucs/Lions 3:00: This time of year, I like teams that are road strong. TB has been that team. They're 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games, and that includes trips to current playoff battling Green Bay, San Francisco, Houston and Buffalo. TB has been dismissed by lots of pundits this year, but the Buccaneers believe in themselves. Bucs and Mayfield do their best as a dog. TB has covered 9 of their last 12 dog roles. And guess who's 3-0 ATS in the playoffs? Yes, Baker Mayfield. Goff sports a 2-4 ATS mark in the same role. Sure, Detroit worked TB in Florida in Week Six 20-6. Buccaneers no joke seeking same season revenge against teams above .500 at 8-1 ATS. Bucs' Bowles will be well prepared to bracket St. Brown and dial up a combination of blitzes. Detroit definitely a tough out but they've given up leads throughout Campbell's tenure. And TB OC Canales has done a fine job pushing the right buttons for Mayfield. We'll take the points. |
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01-14-24 | Rams +3 v. Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 43 h 13 m | Show |
Rams/Lions 8:15: Love the enthusiasm and high energy Campbell and his men bring to the field; however, that very energy and enthusiasm may be their downfall here. Campbell has made many an aggressive play calls, including fake punts and 4th down go-for-it plays. Some worked, some didn't. In a big game like this, it could come back to bite him and his Lions in the rear. McVay is shrewd Super Bowl winning coach who has his men in the thick of things a lot quicker than any of the pundits would have thought. Since the Rams bye week, they're on a 7-1 SU tear including an OT loss at AFC Top Seed Baltimore. The Rams' offensive line has improved dramatically, protecting Stafford and opening holes for RB Keyren Williams (1350 combined rush and receiving yards). Rookie WR Nacua has been amazing and Kupp is nearing his top form. Lions' TE LaPorta laboring with sprained knee. And the Lions' defense has shown vulnerability in the secondary frequently. We'll grab the points with the Rams. |
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01-07-24 | Jaguars v. Titans +5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Jaguars/Titans 1:00: On the surface, it appears that the Titans are down and out before this game even starts. Jacksonville will need this game to claim control of the AFC South en route to the playoffs while the beat-up Titans will be an afterthought. Titans, however, still have players looking to add bonuses or improve market value for next year. Hopkins, Henry and Burks, to name a few, give QB Tannehill viable weaponry against a Jaguar defense that allows 245 YPG through the air and have trouble sacking (25th) the QB. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Lawrence is probably good to go. Vrabel no easy out vs division opponents, especially at home where the Titans are 4-2-1 ATS. And keep in mind that the 2 losses both went to OT and no loss was more than a field goal. Vrabel a sweet 15-7 SU/14-8 ATS with same season revenge. Take the points with Tennessee. |
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01-01-24 | Alabama +2 v. Michigan | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 209 h 1 m | Show |
Alabama/Michigan 5:00: Can't ignore the Wolverines 0-6 bowl mark in its last six attempts. Four of those teams were from the SEC and a few of them ugly losses. Sure, Michigan brings to the field the power run game behind a well-disciplined offensive line. But keep in mind that Alabama has faced some explosive run games in the SEC and fared quite well; as a matter of fact, they're in the top quarter percentile in rush yards allowed and yards per carry. And QB McCarthy was shaky down the stretch. Alabama has dynamic cornerbacks in McKinstry and Arnold. And another dominant edge rusher in Turner in a unit that averages 3 sacks per game. Offensively, QB Milroe progressed substantially since that early season benching after Texas. He's had a sensational season 23/6 TD/INT 2716 yards passing. He has a strong supporting cast in a productive offense that is much better than what the stats indicate. Wolves have the #1 defense, but this is the best offense they faced all season. Alabama the call. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens +6.5 v. 49ers | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
Ravens/49ers 8:15: 49ers a hot team but a bit overpriced here. Ravens come into this game with a lethal run game (164 YPG) behind a strong offensive line. SF's defensive line is thin which is a concern. Armstead is out and Hargrave is battling a hamstring issue. And their strongside outside backer - Burks is out. Gus the Bus and Lamar Jackson can cover lots of grass. Moreover, TE Lively is somewhat filling the void for Mark Andrews. And versatile Zay Flowers is living up to his #! draft choice billing while Beckham Jr. has a few miles left. Defensively, Ravens relatively healthy and balanced. Sure, SF is loaded with offensive weaponry in a dynamic Shannahan scheme. But Baltimore is well coached, travel well, and Lamar Jackson has been money vs NFC teams at 19-1! Moreover, he's 11-1 ATS as a dog! Throw in the fact that 7 straight MNF dogs have covered, and you got to take the points here. |
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12-17-23 | Commanders v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
Commanders/Rams 4:05: Rams still in the playoff hunt while Washington will have to wait till next year. Rams lost a tight one in OT to Baltimore last week. Rams have covered 3 straight and offensively torched two of the best defenses in the NFL in back-to-back weeks. They hung 36 on Cleveland and followed up with 31 on Baltimore. Today, they face the worst defense in the NFL. Commanders' fired DC Jack Del Rio after the 45-10 demolition to Dallas. And then followed up by allowing Miami another 45. Commanders are allowing an average of 30 PPG this season. Commanders got rid of their two best edge rushers - Sweat (Chicago) and Young (SF) and struggle to fill those edge voids. Stafford has been well protected this season [1.8 sacks per game (4th)]. And he has a plethora of weapons (Nacua, Kupp, Atwell, Higbee) including a run game with versatile Kyren Williams (800 yards/5 YPC). Hard to believe Commanders can trade points. Howell has shown promise but heavily under duress (4.5 sacks per game - 30th) that lead to INTs (16). Rams' DC Morris is licking his chops despite the loss of Donald (groin). Rams the call. |
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12-16-23 | Georgia Southern v. Ohio +3 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
Georgia Southern/Ohio University 11:00: Physical vs finesse, we'll grab physical most of the time. The more physical Bobcats of Ohio University sports the #5 scoring defense in the nation (15.4 PPG) and #4 in yards allowed (264). Their offense compliments their defense by pounding the ball with RBs Bangura and Allison behind a sturdy offensive line. And veteran QB Rourke has been in Athens seemingly forever. Georgia Southern under former USC HC Helton brings a pass happy offense (#1 in pass attempts) with QB Davis Brin. He can air it out yet has little run support (104th nationally with 104 YPG). He's been sacked 2.4 times per game. That does not bode well vs the opportunistic Ohio defense that thrives on forcing turnovers. And the GS defense is yielding to the tune of allowing nearly 400 YPG and 30 PPG - both in bottom tier nationally. GS lost its bowl game last year to another MAC team - Buffalo. This year, look for the Bobcats to the do the damage to them and record their first ever back-to-back 10-win seasons. |
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12-10-23 | Bucs +2 v. Falcons | Top | 29-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
Bucs/Falcons 1:00: All seams well with Atlanta. They're sitting on top of the lackluster NFC South. They've won two straight and going for the season series sweep here. I'm not buying into it. They're coming off a physical battle in NY and a bit banged up. QB Ridder has been sacked 28 times, 6 fumbles and 8 INTs. Division opponent - TB has a good run stop unit and rookie Diaby has 5 sacks in the last 6 games. TB has a decent secondary that overachieves with a healthy FS Winfield Jr. Offensively, QB Mayfield is at his best as an underdog. And as long as perennial All Pro Mike Evans is healthy, there is a chance to win. Falcons' HC Arthur Smith can't be trusted here. he's 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent with revenge. TB the call. |
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12-03-23 | Chargers v. Patriots +5.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Chargers/Patriots 1:00: Heavy action on Chargers but I don't believe it's warranted. After all, they've lost three straight including a physical battle at home vs Baltimore last week. Teams coming off Baltimore are usually banged up and sluggish going into the next game. Chargers have to travel cross country into cold and rainy Foxborough. Herbert is 0-2 vs Belichick and his top go-to receiver - Keenan Allen is laboring with a quad injury. No doubt, Patriots are pathetic offensively. Mac Jones is benched, and Zappe will start. That's surely not a vote of confidence in New England but fortunately, they face a defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed. Patriots put in a package for elusive QB Malik Cunningham by activating him off practice squad. Perhaps a good wrinkle against a leaky Chargers' run stop unit that gets up the field fast to sack the QB. Defensively, Patriots still sound and should make this an ugly game for NE to deliver. Belichick is a sweet 19-8 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU loss. Also, a strong 14-2 ATS off a non-division game vs a less than .500 opponent off a SU loss of more than 4 points. Value with the Patriots! |
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11-26-23 | Ravens -2.5 v. Chargers | Top | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
Ravens/Chargers 8:20: Physical over finesse. Ravens bring to LA the #2 scoring defense in the NFL. They lead the league in sacks and yards per play allowed (4.5). Sure, Herbert is an elite QB but he can only do so much. The receiving corps is thinning (Williams & Palmer on IR) and Allen, at his age, only has so much juice, and Quentin Johnston won't sneak up on the well-disciplined Ravens' secondary after stepping up his game recently. Chargers' OC Moore wanted to establish a run game early in the season, but since the Chargers are 18th in the NFL running the football, they're becoming more pass happy quickly. And they surely won't establish the ground game vs the Ravens with Roquan Smith manning the middle. On the defensive side of the ball, Chargers are 32nd vs the pass and 31st in allowing yards. Ravens' offense is rolling this year with Jackson. Sure, TE Andrews is out but look for Likely to fill some of the void. And the punishing ground game of Gus Edwards and Hill combined with the speed of Keaton Mitchell too much for the Bosa (IR) less Chargers. And yes, Lamar Jackson is 13-5 SU/15-2-1 ATS as a dog or favorite of fewer than 3 points. Ravens the call. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Ohio State/Michigan Noon: Both teams know this is for all the marbles. Ryan Day, especially, aware of the grumblings from boosters, fans, administrators demanding a win after going 0-2 vs that school up north. A few really good OSU coaches were run out of town for losing this game. This season, OSU has the best player on the field - Marvin Harrison Jr. who shows up in big games, as exhibited against the stalwart defense of Penn State. And Egbuka, Stover, and versatile RB Henderson give QB McCord plenty of weaponry behind a very good offensive line. Michigan does have the #1 scoring defense in the nation, but this is undoubtedly the best offense they've faced. Defensively, Buckeyes sport the #2 scoring defense in the nation behind DC Knowles. Knowles acknowledged his errors during this game last season and spent hours tweaking his system for this specific game. Michigan, offensively, has been more one dimensional with only OC Sherrone Moore on the sidelines. His QB McCarthy struggled (52%) last week at Maryland. Not having Harbaugh on the sidelines for support here could be costly in critical moments. Interesting to note that Michigan is 0-15 SU in their final Big Ten game of the season since 2001 when not favored by more than 5 points. On the other hand, OSU a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Buckeyes the call. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
Vikings/Broncos 8:20: Broncos flourishing in the dog role with impressive wins over Kansas City and Buffalo. But now they go back as a favorite where they struggle (0-3 ATS). Vikings quietly turning it around themselves. After a 1-4 start, they reeled off 5 straight wins. Minnesota's O'Connell doing an amazing job keeping the Vikings in the hunt with veteran journeyman QB Dobbs. Fortunately, the surrounding cast - from the offensive line, TE Hockenson and WR Addison, to their no-name running game behind Mattison and Chandler. What's more, is the great defensive play behind DC Flores. Like last season, O'Connell finds ways of winning close games and he's flourishing as a dog this season. We'll take the points. |
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11-18-23 | Washington v. Oregon State -1 | Top | 22-20 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
Washington/Oregon State 7:30: Revenge game for Oregon State. The Beavers lost 24-21 at Husky Stadium last season. Tonight, they have the undefeated Huskies in their dominant confines of Reser Stadium where they are 16-1 SU since 2021. Washington's QB Penix Jr. is having a phenomenal year but face a tenacious defense that gets after the QB (3.5 sacks per game). Washington's run game not the greatest (101st nationally). On the other hand, Beavers a bit more balanced with RB Martinez carrying a lot of the load and it's helping QB Uigalelei turn in a solid season. We'll look for Oregon State to deliver tonight. |
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11-12-23 | Titans +3 v. Bucs | Top | 6-20 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Titans/Bucs 1:00: Titans had a few extra prep days for this after coming off Thursday night (11-2) loss to Pittsburgh. In that game, QB Will Levis showed he has what it takes to be the starting QB. He hung tough and delivered well enough to win that game; consequently, he won the starting job over Tannehill. Meanwhile, his counterpart - Mayfield - turned in a good enough performance to win; however, the TB secondary was lit up like a torch. Bucs' defense allows 7.4 yards per pass - which is second to last (Denver). Like our chances here with Levis running the offense as RB Henry and Spears can assist in softening up the TB defense to allow Hopkins and company to stretch the field. Tennessee has historically done well on extra rest at 7-0-1 ATS, and also control a 10-2 SU mark in this series. Can't side with TB here. Mayfield strong as a dog but as a favorite a money burning 10-22-2 ATS including 1-9 ATS in his last 10 as chalk. Tennessee the call. |
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11-11-23 | New Mexico State +4.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
New Mexico State/Western Kentucky 3:30: Hilltoppers QB Austin Reed can sling it and gets a lot of press; however, over the course of the game with a limited run game (114th nation) and a yielding defense (130th in yards allowed), they've eked out a 5-4 SU record this season. On the other hand, Jerry Kill's Aggies are 7-3 SU and gaining momentum just like they did last year down the stretch on their way to a bowl win. Their 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and tough as nails QB Pavia is running their offense to perfection. Like their chances here, especially with their solid ground game and a defense that allows just 20 PPG. NMS the call. |
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11-05-23 | Seahawks +6.5 v. Ravens | Top | 3-37 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Ravens/Seahawks 1:00: Seahawks are as healthy as they've been all season. And acquiring versatile lineman Leonard Williams over the trade deadline was huge. He adds the much-needed depth to shore up the run game and disrupt Lamar Jackson in the pass game. Seattle defense has gotten better every week. And they have a talented well-versed secondary. And Ravens won't have starting RT Moses (out). On the flip side, QB Geno Smith getting comfortable distributing the rock to multiple weapons, including #1 draft pick Smith-Nijigba. And with the O-line getting healthy, Walker III and Charbonet can keep the chains moving. Technically, Seattle a sweet 9-0 ATS as a dog of less than 7 points off SU win vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Seattle the call. |
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11-04-23 | Army v. Air Force -17.5 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
Army/Air Force 2:30: Army really struggling to gain traction this season. The primary reason for their demise is the inexplicable decision to go to a shotgun spread offense. They don't have the personnel with speed, quickness and accuracy at QB to stretch a field and win on one-on-one matchups. And their undersized offensive line won't intimidate the attacking defense of Air Force ranked #3 in the nation in yards allowed and #4 in points allowed. On the other hand, Air Force ground game #1 in the nation -grinding out 300 YPG led by steady QB Zac Larrier. Army's run-stop-unit is allowing a generous 183 YPG. Army has covered four straight in this series but the Falcons are laser focused on this one to bring home the coveted Commander-in-Chief's Trophy. This one is played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. Lay the wood with Air Force. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals +5.5 v. 49ers | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Bengals/49ers 4:25: Bengals starting to heat up while SF is cooling off. Bengals off two straight wins and had a week to prep and get healthy. Meanwhile, SF off two straight losses while their QB Purdy clears concussion protocol and preps for a defense that can make good QBs look average. Not having Deebo Samuel also advantage Cincinnati. And LT Trent Williams is still questionable. How good has Cincinnati been in the Joe Burrow era? Think about this: They're 16-3 SU in their last 19 games vs teams above .500. And they're 18-5 SU/18-4-1 ATS in their last 23 non-division games. Yep, I'm on Cincinnati. |
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10-28-23 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
Kentucky/Tennessee 7:00: Tennessee was within grasp of knocking off Alabama last week; as a matter of fact, prior to that game, Vol's HC Heupel was 22-0 with a lead at halftime. Tonight, look for Tennessee to bounce back strong. Vol's are 9-1 ATS in the 2nd of back-to-back road games. They've covered at Lexington five straight times. Kentucky is coming off back-to-back losses after a strong start. They're off a bye week but just 1-6 ATS with rest. Kentucky defense has struggled against fast tempo offenses. Defensively, they're not deep enough up front and have been shredded in the secondary to the tune of 68% completions. Look for Tennessee QB Milton to get back on track. Kentucky offense has a run game but QB Leary not getting it done. They're facing a very good Tennessee defense that's well rounded across the board. Tennessee the call. |
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10-22-23 | Browns v. Colts +3.5 | Top | 39-38 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
Browns/Colts 1:00: Browns feeling really good after upsetting class of NFC San Francisco; moreover, Deshaun Watson is most likely to play today. The excitement ends there. Watson has played one decent game this season, against an inept Tennessee offense. His QBR is an underwhelming 46.7. And the Browns have been consistently inconsistent by alternating losses and wins over their last 10 games dating back to last December. Browns' backers should be concerned with the availability of three key players: RB Hunt (thigh), LB Takitaki (out), and arguably their best cornerback - Newsome (hamstring). Colts are a dangerous team here. They have lots of speed at LB and in the secondary along with a formidable defensive front led by Buckner. Offensively, they're in for a big challenge. Browns have a legitimate #1 defense; however, they sell out repeatedly and we won't discount Gardner Minshew despite his 3 INT game last week. He's a smart veteran QB who has some very good skill players and good offensive line. Running game with Jonathan Taylor overdue to get untracked. And we won't overlook the fact that the Colts are an amazing 8-0 ATS off a double-digit ATS loss vs an opponent off a SU win. Colts the call. |
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10-21-23 | Ole Miss v. Auburn +6.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
Ole Miss/Auburn 7:00: Auburn on an 0-3 SU slide including last week's 48-18 demolition in Baton Rouge. Don't count the Tigers out. Hugh Freeze is a sweet 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS as an SEC dog of less than 7 points. The Tigers have covered 3 of the last 4 in this series. And although Ole Miss looks like the clearcut favorite to thrash the offensively challenged Tigers, they have their weaknesses. Rebels' secondary has been torched repeatedly this year (261.5 YPG -112th nationally) and it may be what the doctor ordered for the struggling QBs of Auburn. Fortunately, the Tigers have a ground game (192 YPG) and a respectable defense that is stewing over last week's no show. Ole Miss a money burning 4-24-2 ATS as a road favorite of less than 16 points. Auburn the call. |
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10-15-23 | Colts +4 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
Colts/Jaguars 1:00: Colts in good hands with Minshew at the controls. And now that Jonathon Taylor got his feet wet last week, he'll chime in with overachieving Moss to fuel that run game. Jaguars are a team to reckon with but could still be in a London fog after back-to-back games in the United Kingdom. Colts seeking revenge from opening day defeat at home. Today, they're much more equipped to get even. Colts' defense getting healthy as LBs Shaq Leanard and tackling machine Franklin on the field at the same time. Jacksonville's HC Pederson a money burning 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off a SU dog win. And the Jaguars are a brutal 6-20 ATS off back-to-back SU/ATS wins vs division opponent. Jaguars do their best work as a dog. As a favorite: 4-8 SU/3-9 ATS last 12 as chalk. Colts the call. |
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10-14-23 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Texas A&M/Tennessee 3:30: Two SEC heavyweights clash but scheduling advantage to Tennessee. Both teams equipped with productive offenses and aggressive defenses that can get after the QB. We'll give the edge to Joe Milton and company. Tennessee is well rested after their 21-point burial of South Carolina back on 9/30. They've had this past week to rest and heal. Meanwhile, Aggies coming off a bruising battle in a loss to Alabama. HC Fisher now sports a money burning 2-10 SU/2-9-1 ATS mark as a dog of less than 5 points. And the Aggies are a dismal 1-11 ATS vs an opponent with rest off a SU/ATS win. With the Volunteers at a sweet 10-1 ATS vs conference opponent off SU/ATS loss, we'll jump on the Volunteers here. |
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10-12-23 | West Virginia -3 v. Houston | Top | 39-41 | Loss | -107 | 4 h 2 m | Show |
West Virginia/Houston 7:00: West Virginia has a sound football team this year that isn't flashy but gets the job done. After an opening season loss to Penn State, the Mountaineers have reeled off four straight wins. They're winning with a solid run game, limiting mistakes, and playing tough defense. QB Greene won't overwhelm you with stats but he's a good leader, can run the football and limits mistakes (0 interceptions). On the other hand, Holgorsen (former WV head coach) and his bunch got blown out by two teams (TCU & Texas Tech) the Mountaineers beat. And they also lost to their in-state stepbrother - pass happy Rice. The Cougars' offense is good but their defense leaves much to be desired. Cougars sport a sluggish 106th ranked defense that allows a generous 4.6 YPC. Both of these teams are well rested, dormant since 9/30. Houston is a money burning 0-5 ATS at home with rest. WV a sweet 5-0 ATS on weekdays. We'll lay a FG on the road with West Virginia. |
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10-09-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
Packers/Raiders 8:15: Hard to jump on a Raiders team off three straight losses with a coach (McDaniels) who's not getting it done. Offensive minded McDaniels oversees an offense in the bottom tier of the league. QB Jimmy G, who cleared concussion protocol, leads the league in interceptions (6) despite having one of the best receivers in the league (Davonte Adams) at his disposal. And the running game with Josh Jacobs is not getting generated (2.7 YPC). Raiders are minus 9 in turnover margin - bottom of the league. Packers' defense was not good against the explosive offense of Detroit, which ran all over them; however, they had a few extra days to address those issues under DC Barry. And Packers do have the horses to rush QBs. On the other side of the ball, QB Love will have 4 of his 5 preferred offensive linemen suited up and a full arsenal of skill weaponry. Raiders' secondary has multiple injuries including their top defensive back Hobbs (out). Raiders' do have a great pass rusher in Crosby but his bookend partner Jones is no longer there and Tyree Wilson (#1 pick) has yet to impress. Look for Matt LeFleur to script a solid game plan in designing a script to get the best out of Love and company tonight. GB 10-1 ATS as non-division dog the last 3 seasons including 2-0 ATS this season. As for the Raiders, 1-7 ATS off SU division road loss. Packers the call. |
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10-07-23 | Boston College v. Army -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
Boston College/Army Noon: Boston College coming off a satisfying come from behind win over struggling Virginia. Meanwhile, Army had the week off to stew over their second half collapse against Syracuse on 9/23. QB Bryson Daily threw two costly interceptions to seal Army's fate. The well-disciplined Knights have made a winning history of avoiding getting behind the sticks. This year, they've gone into the shotgun but still have the run-game a staple of their offense. Army has grinded out 219.5 YPG this season. Look for Army to attack a Boston College run-stop-unit that allows 4.2 YPC. Getting on the scoreboard early against the BC defense which allows 162 YPG, will be crucial. BC offense is notoriously slow out of the gate this year scoring a paltry 2.8 points average in the first quarter. We'll look for Monken's well-disciplined Black Knights to start strong and this time finish. |
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10-01-23 | Chiefs -8 v. Jets | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 59 m | Show |
Chiefs/Jets 8:20: Chiefs turned it up a few notches last week when their offense was under scrutiny for lack of production. With a defense (#4 scoring defense) already in surprisingly good form, KC is a dangerous team. Hopefully, Chris Jones (groin) and Nick Bolton (MLB) are able to go, which add significant value to the defense. Actually, thought this line was going to be at double digits given the pathetic nature of the Jets' offense. Without Jones and Bolton, betting line remains tight. Good news is the KC offense is relatively healthy. Last time Mahomes faced this New York Jets team (2020), he scorched it for 460 yards and 5 TDs. Jets' defense significantly improved since but offensive woes and the lost confidence of Zach Wilson stress that defense too much to hold up the duration of a game. A defense that should be a Top 5 NFL unit across the board is reduced to average (12th scoring defense). Technically, Andy Reid a sweet 12-2 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit ATS win. We'll roll with KC |
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09-30-23 | East Carolina v. Rice -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
East Carolina/Rice 7:00: Rice is 3-1 ATS, including covers at Texas and an outright win at home vs Houston. Defensively, they're yielding and give up yards and explosive plays. Today, however, they face a pedestrian offense (4.3 YPP) with little explosive play potential. And that's including last week's 44-0 demolition over lightweight Gardner-Webb. They're unsettled at QB after record setting QB Ahlers left. Flinn and Garcia rotate in at QB in an offense that produces a paltry 282.5 YPG. On the other hand, Rice has an offense capable of outscoring its opponent. Vagabond QB J.T. Daniels, who went from USC to Georgia, West Virginia, and now calling the signals at Rice. He airs it out in a pass happy offense. He sports a respectable 11/3 TD/INT. East Carolina has exhibited little pass rush at 0.8 sacks per game. Daniels should put up some big numbers today and outshoot the Pirates. |
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09-24-23 | Saints v. Packers -1 | Top | 17-18 | Push | 0 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Saints/Packers 1:00: Packers catching Saints on a short prep week. Saints feeling really good at 2-0. Offense, however, has looked choppy in both games. They really miss RB Kamara. Saints' defense has been stellar though. Today, however, they won't have starting C Adebo (hamstring) and starting S Maye (suspension). And those are big losses. Packers' QB Love possesses the best QB rating in the league at 118.8 with 6 TD passes and no INTs. Run game could get a boost with Aaron Jones (questionable) back. Packers' LaFleur are 5-1 SU/ATS vs undefeated foes and 9-1 ATS before the Lions. Saints are a money burning 1-7 ATS as a road dog of 3 or less off a SU win vs a .500 or greater opponent off a SU loss. Packers the call. |
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09-23-23 | Maryland -7.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
Maryland/Michigan State 3:30: Michigan State program in tatters as Mel Tucker (suspended) is on his way out and defensive back coach - Harlon Barnett trying to hold the program together. Last week, Washington walked into East Lansing and dropped a 41-7 whitewashing on them. Maryland has very good skill players including QB Taulia Tagovailoa (Tua's little brother) who's having another solid season (67% completions). Michigan State can rush the passer but their strength is also a big weakness. The overly aggressive blitz packages the Spartans dial up result in repeated explosive plays given up; as a matter of fact, they're 99th in the nation vs the pass and 121st in completion % allowed at 67%. Maryland HC Locksley usually strong in early season action and should follow up with win and cover here. |
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09-17-23 | Packers +2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 24-25 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Packers/Falcons 1:00: Last week, Packers didn't miss a beat with Love replacing Rodgers as the starting QB vs the Bears. Packers didn't have vertical threat Watson last week and probably not today either; however, others stepping up to fill receiving void. TE Musgrave (#2 draft choice) had a big game as well as Doubs. Packers could be without RB Jones (hamstring) but Dillon is capable of carrying load. Defensively, liked how Joe Barry's bunch stepped up to stall out the Bears. Atlanta is loaded with offensive playmakers, but offensive line was not that impressive. Carolina shot itself in the foot offensively to open the door for Atlanta. GB more disciplined. GB a sweet 8-0 ATS off a SU division win vs non-division opponent off a SU win. They're also 8-1 ATS as a non-division dog. And Lafleur is a sweet 5-0 ATS as a dog off a double-digit win. Packers the call. |
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09-16-23 | Virginia Tech v. Rutgers -6.5 | Top | 16-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Virginia Tech/Rutgers 3:30: Rutgers boasts a Top 10 defense taking on a VT squad that still has difficulty generated a run game in the 2nd year of Brent Pry's offensive system. Moreover, Hokies' QB Grant Wells, who completed just 53% of his passes so far, is hobbling on a bad ankle. And his top targets Jennings (ankle) and Lane (hamstring) may not play. Rutgers' defense allows just 1.7 YPC and should shut the Hokies pedestrian offense down. Offensively, Rutgers' HC Schiano is old school and likes to wear opponents down with stout defense and a run game with play action. So far so good for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers is 10-0 ATS after scoring more than 35 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Rutgers the call. |
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09-10-23 | Packers v. Bears | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Packers/Bears 4:25: Value with the Bears. The #1 rush team in the league last season will have more weapons at Justin Fields disposal. D.J. Moore (via Carolina) was a huge addition, and #1 draft choice OT Darnell Wright and G Nate Davis (free agency) will add to the protection depth. Packers' defense in good hands under DC Barry but the lack of offense should do them in; after all, QB Love won't have vertical threat Watson (out) and Doubs is questionable with a hamstring issue. They'll likely lean on their run game behind Jones and Dillon who ran roughshod over the Bears last year at Lambeau Field for 193 yards. Bears were 31st vs the run last year but addressed those issues in the offseason with good additions along their front seven. We'll look for the Bears to break the dismal 0-8 slide vs their division rival. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs +2 v. Eagles | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
Chiefs/Eagles 6:30: On paper, Eagles the better complete team. On the field, with the lights at their brightest, I'll go with the league MVP (Mahomes) and experienced "big game" coaching staff. Chiefs' DC Spagnuolo draws up good defensive game plans post season. He did it with the Giants and has done it well with the Chiefs. Eagles' offense very dangerous but every offense has its weakness to exploit, and Spagnuolo should find it. Andy Reid has been highly effective with additional rest and off bye weeks. Strategizing is a big part of big games and Reid is near top of the heap in that category. Eagles' defense tremendously aggressive and the best sack team since the '84 - '85 Bears. That defensive line gets up the field fast; consequently, look for the Chiefs to work a quick pass game (Kelce/Toney) and establish run game with slasher back Pacheco and newly activated Edwards-Helaire. Coaching experience in big games and proven big game winner Mahomes checks the mark for taking the points here. Chiefs the call. |
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01-08-23 | Chargers +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Chargers/Broncos 4:25: Regardless of the playoff seeding scenarios for the Chargers, they've clinched a spot. A win by the Bengals in the earlier game gives speculation that Staley will sit a lot of his starters; however, he has no plans for that and wants momentum going into the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to continue their winning surge. The defense has been one of the key driving forces in their winning run down the stretch. Their previous 4 opponents were held to 11 PPG or less. Their defensive efficiency went from #26 to #5. LB Van Noy has been pivotal in their success as he's had a sack in 4 straight games. Chargers' offense now in rhythm with receivers Williams and Allen healthy for machinelike QB Herbert. Broncos gave a strong effort vs KC last week and are on a nice run covering 4 of their last 5. But Chargers are a lot better now than their October 17th OT win over Denver. And the Broncos cannot be trusted in the favorite role. Dog is 5-2 ATS in this series. Take the points with the Chargers. |
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01-01-23 | Vikings v. Packers -3 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
Vikings/Packers 4:25: Really impressed with the secondary play of Green Bay this season (#3 vs pass) especially last week vs elite receivers Waddle and Hill. They'll face some very good ones today in Jefferson, Theilen, TE Hockenson, and RB Cook. We'll look for the Packers' DC Barry to continue to make the right adjustments. Offensively, Rodgers a bit off the mark but got in a groove with his receiving corps and the Pack is rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run. Green Bay offense should run through the Vikings' soft defense like a hot knife through butter. Vikings in the bottom tier vs the pass, total yards and points allowed. LaFleur a sweet 11-2 ATS as a favorite vs a .500 or greater team off a SU win. And the Packers are 9-1 ATS vs a division opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Packers can win out and have a good chance at the playoffs. Green Bay should get sweet revenge from Week 1 loss. |
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12-30-22 | Clemson -5.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
Tennessee/Clemson 8:00: Tennessee was well on its way to play in the CFP when QB Hooker went down vs South Carolina. Former Michigan QB Joe Milton, who has a rifle of an arm, came in to save the season but couldn't, as the 2nd loss of the season sent them to this bowl. Milton did lead the Volunteers to a decisive blow out win over Vanderbilt, albeit the run game is what gutted the Commodores defense. That won't happen against the well-disciplined Top 20 defense of Clemson. And although Joe Milton has the arm strength to stretch a defense, he doesn't have the accuracy to do it against Clemson's. Furthermore, he won't have his top two receivers - Hyatt and Tillman (NFL draft opt outs). On the other hand, Clemson won't have their starting QB D.J. Uiagalelei who already transferred to Oregon State. And that's a good thing because Klubnik, who came into the game in the ACC Championship and lit up the UNC secondary, is the better option and should have been the starter. Tennessee's secondary (127th in the nation) is not very good. Klubnik should light it up like a torch. Clemson HC Swinney has an excellent bowl record and should have his men finishing strong as a springboard for next year. Clemson the call. |
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12-24-22 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 47 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Philadelphia/Dallas 4:25: This series has gone 'over' 4 straight and 5 of the last 7 in Dallas. Philadelphia offense shouldn't slow down with Minshew at the helm. He would most likely be a starting QB on at least 3 NFL teams this season. And he's got a lot of skill weaponry at his disposal, including TE Goedert back for this one. Cowboys have injuries on the back end of their defense, and with Dallas LB Vander Esch out, Eagles run game won't miss a beat with arguably the best offensive line in the league leading the way. Cowboys' run stop unit 24th in the league vulnerable. On the other hand, Eagles only soft spot is their run stop unit. They're in the lower echelon of the league stopping the run (19th). And Dallas can run the football when they're devoted to it. With heavy "over" trends for these teams in December, we'll go "over" here. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 51 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota/Detroit 1:00: Both of these teams have heavy "over" trends. And this series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings and 4-1 O/U in Detroit. Lions on a 10-4 O/U overall run. Not a surprise considering their defense allows 27 PPG (last in the league). But Goff and company have been machine-like this season averaging 26.3 PPG. OC Ben Johnson has done an outstanding job working with Goff and the offense. They should be able to frequent the end zone against the worst pass defense in the NFL that allows 283.6 YPG. We'll go "over" here. |
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12-04-22 | Titans +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Titans/Eagles 1:00: Titans a dangerous road team that's won 5 straight ATS on the road (4-1 SU). Eagles are a legitimate NFC contender with a potent Top 3 offense. But Titans have an underrated defense that stiffens in the red zone (18.6 PPG allowed. Eagles on the other hand, have few flaws; however, they're missing their ball hawking S Gardner-Johnson (lacerated kidney), and although Blankenship looked solid in that reserve role last week, he's still just a rookie. Look for King Henry and the play action game of Tannehill and company to get it going this week. Eagles have been vulnerable to strong run games this season. Titans are a sweet 18-7 ATS on the road vs the NFC East including 9-1 ATS in the last 10. Tennessee the call. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | Top | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show |
Purdue/Michigan 8:00: Michigan off a huge upset of Ohio State. Harbaugh should have them prepared and at even keel tonight facing the Boilermakers. Michigan is well rooted in the CFP so this won't be an absolute must win. For Purdue, they have nothing to lose. And let it be known, Purdue is dangerous under HC Brohm vs ranked opponents going 7-6 SU; moreover, he's an incredible 22-6 ATS as a dog of 4+ points including 2-0 SU/ATS in that role this season. Take the points. |
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12-02-22 | Utah v. USC -2 | Top | 47-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
Utah/USC 8:00: USC a win away from playing in the CFP for the first time. With OSU on their tail, they must win and possibly convincingly to deliver no doubt in CFP Management Committee's mind. Utah no joke; after all, they're well coached under Whittingham and will always play hard. And on paper, Utah has a much better defense, solid special teams and a productive Top 20 offense. However, a closer look reveals Utah has not covered all season vs a winning team (0-4 ATS). And Cameron Rising had a big opportunity at Oregon November 19th to take Utah to another level but flopped miserably with three interceptions costing his team the win. Sure, he helped deliver a controversial SU win (loss ATS) over USC October 15th in the comfortable confines of Rice-Eccles Stadium. Tonight, in Las Vegas, I see the Heisman Trophy frontrunner - Caleb Williams and the explosive, yet efficient (1 turnover) USC offense getting the job done. And don't put a whole lot of stock into the yielding defense of USC (allow 405 YPG). They have a ball hawking secondary and created 21 takeaways - 2nd nationally! USC delivers! |
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11-25-22 | Baylor +10 v. Texas | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Baylor/Texas Noon: Two teams near evenly matched in a lot of ways. Both with solid run games, good defenses, well coached. Baylor has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series including an outright last season. And Baylor will surely not roll over here after heartbreaking loss last week to TCU. Bears are 5-1 ATS off a SU loss, and they're 5-1-1 ATS in Austin. They'll surely try to establish the run game vs Texas; after all, Baylor has grinded out 230+ yards in 4 of its last 5 games behind a mammoth OL. Reese has carried a majority of the load. Shapen is at his best when the run game is cooking. On the other side of the ball, Aranda has developed another rock-solid defense to counter explosive NFL bound RB Bijan Robinson and a solid QB in Ewers. Baylor leads the conference in interceptions in 13. Too many points to give this team. Baylor an amazing 16-0 ATS as conference dogs of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win. Texas has failed to cover in two attempts this season coming off blowout wins. Baylor the call. |
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11-20-22 | Bears +3 v. Falcons | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Bears/Falcons 1:00: All of a sudden, the Bears are turning into an NFL offensive powerhouse. They've notched 33, 29, 32, 30 points in their last 4 games, respectively. And in the process, they've played some pretty good defenses in New England, Dallas, Miami. Coming off a loss at home vs Detroit, Bears should get it done against the yielding defense of Atlanta which is in the bottom tier of the NFL for yardage and points allowed. Versatile QB Justin Fields has been the focal point of the offense launching the Bears to the #1 rushing attack in the NFL. Although Herbert (IR) won't play, Montgomery is very capable of getting the bulk of carries. And don't be surprised if Claypool emerges as a pass threat now that he's been worked in the fray for a few weeks; after all, Atlanta has the worst pass defense in the NFL. Offensively, Atlanta one dimensional as QB Mariota struggling to create a passing game ranked 31st in the NFL. Sure, Bears defense no longer Monsters of the Midway, and getting rid of Roquan Smith is still a mystery to me; however, his replacement Sanborn had 12 tackles, 9 solos and 2 sacks last week. Bears are 6-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points vs the NFC South. And they've covered 5 of the last 7 in Atlanta. Falcons started a red hot 6-0 ATS but have dropped 4 straight. Take the Bears today. |
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11-19-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota -2.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Iowa/Minnesota 4:00 Iowa has owned this series to the tune of 7-0 SU/6-0-1 ATS. But in the bitter cold of Huntington Bank Stadium where temperatures are dropping to 10 degrees with 14 MPH winds, Gophers should pull this one out today. Sure, Iowa is winning games with a Top 10 defense and special teams with little contribution from an offense ranked 130th in the nation. But Iowa offensive struggles should prove to be costly here. Gophers should hitch the wagon to their horse - RB Mo Ibrahim who has 18 consecutive starts with 100+ yards. And he's tough. 70% of his 1261 rush yards have come after contact - most of any Power 5 player. Four quarters of pounding him behind the mammoth Minnesota offensive line which averages 6'5" 318 pounds per person, should eventually cave in the Iowa defense. On the other hand, Gophers' defense very stout - 8th in the nation in yards allowed and 4th in the nation in points allowed. Going to be tough for Iowa to move the football. And I do realize the Hawkeyes are rolling on a 3-0 SU/ATS run; however, they're 0-12 ATS after three consecutive ATS wins. Minnesota the call. |
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11-06-22 | Panthers v. Bengals OVER 42.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
Panthers/Bengals 1:00: Both secondaries have thinned out with injuries. Carolina has S Burris (concussion) out and C Donte Jackson laboring with a sprained ankle. Bengals' QB Burrow should bounce back strong today despite the loss of Chase (hip). He still has Boyd, Higgins, TE Hurst and RB Mixon to go to. Bengals' ground game not good but could start cooking today vs the mediocre run-stop-unit of Panthers (23rd). On the other hand, Carolina will stay with P.J. Walker as their QB. And they should! He's in rhythm with receivers and putting points on the board; moreover, RB D'onta Foreman filling the RB void for McCaffrey (SF). He's running the rock hard and opening up the passing game. Bengals' secondary thinning with Awuzie (knee), Flowers (hamstring), Hilton (finger) all laboring. And the run stop unit of Cincy leaves much to be desired (21st). We got about 3 points of value with this total and I'm going "over". |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Baylor/Oklahoma 3:00: Both teams run the football well, have above average QBs and athletes who can make plays; however, the difference is in the defensive execution. Oklahoma has been gutted on the ground to the tune of 198 YPG. Baylor's defense allows just 113 YPG. Baylor will surely attempt to exploit the Sooners' run stop unit with leading rusher Reese; consequently, that should eventually open the RPO windows vs the Sooners' linebackers. On the other hand, defensive minded Baylor HC Aranda should have his unit well prepared to face QB Gabriel and company. Baylor's covered this series for 4 straight and finally have near equal talent as Oklahoma. Oklahoma 1-5 ATS before West Virginia and 0-5 ATS at home vs an opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Baylor the call. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
49ers/Rams 4:25: 49ers are 7-0 SU vs the Rams during the regular season but the eighth won't be a charm. 49ers off two straight losses you would think be ready to get it rolling like they did last season after four straight losses, but injuries to key personnel will make it tough here. Major playmaker Deebo Samuel (hamstring) is out and key blocking component FB Kyle Juszcyk (finger). And defensively, SF will continue to miss DT Armstead, and solid run-stopper WLB Greenlaw (calf) won't play. Meanwhile, LA Rams had a bye week to heal up and find a way to finally beat the 49ers. This is a pretty good spot for them to get er done; after all, Rams are 11-4-1 ATS off a bye week, and 9-1 ATS with rest vs an opponent with winning percentage less than .666. Stafford will have an extra target with speedy target Van Jefferson (off IR) to stretch the field. Moreover, having starting C Brian Allen back will help stabilize an offensive line that's been in a state of flux for most of the season. Dog 7-1 ATS in this series and take the point with the home team. |
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10-29-22 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State +1.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Iowa State Noon: Both teams coming off bye weeks but Iowa State a bit healthier. Sooners S Bowman still on the mend. Iowa State has dropped four straight conference games yet competitive (by a combined 14 points). The Cyclones are looking to avenge last season's 28-21 loss at Norman. Cyclones' HC Matt Campbell has a deeply rooted staff including a terrific DC in Jon Heacock. Cyclones have a Top 10 defense in not only yards allowed but points allowed (15.1 PPG). They play the pass well and should be able to contain Sooners' QB Gabriel. On the other hand, Sooners' defense has been atrocious - allowing 31 PPG (103rd nationally) with a poor run stop unit allowing 207 YPG. Cyclones have good weapons offensively including NFL bound Xavier Hutchinson (758 yards). And QB Hunter Dekkers is gradually living up to his potential coming out of high school as one of the most prolific passers in Iowa HS football history. He'll have RB Brock to help alleviate some pressure. Matt Campbell a dangerous conference dog at 25-8 ATS including 17-3 ATS when opponent is coming off a win. Iowa State should deliver. |
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10-23-22 | Texans +7 v. Raiders | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Texans/Raiders 4:05: Both teams coming off a bye. Texans went into their bye feeling pretty good after knocking off Jacksonville. Las Vegas went into theirs following a heartbreaking loss to KC. Raiders are 0-5 ATS following a bye week. Raiders can hang with top opposition, as exhibited in all their games. They do, however, have finishing games as demonstrated vs the Chargers, Titans, Cardinals, and Chiefs. Moreover, they're 0-4 ATS vs teams under .500. And their coach - McDaniels fits right in for he went 0-4 ATS with Denver as a less than .500 team taking on a less than .500 team. Houston is a team that shows ugly stats at the bottom of the league in offensive production and giving up yards defensively; however, a closer look reveals a strong defensive secondary that's given QBs fits getting in the end zone. Texans have given up just 19.8 PPG and are opportunistic creating turnovers (8). We'll look for Houston to do what they do best - stick around and make it interesting. Take the TD |
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10-22-22 | Purdue +2 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
Purdue/Wisconsin 3:30: Wisconsin has amazingly gone 15-0 SU in this series. Purdue has competed well in Madison though at 3-0 ATS under Brohm. Today, the Boilermakers should notch their 5th straight win and defeat the Badgers to become bowl eligible. They're catching the Badgers off a double-OT defeat at Michigan State. They're 1-1 SU/ATS since DC Leonhard took over for fired Paul Chryst. Both teams are similar in defensive philosophy, highly opportunistic, and good run stoppers; however, where the Badgers lack is the passing game under Mertz. He's doing well, but run game isn't what it was in years past with RB Allen the leading rusher. As for Purdue, RB Mockobee emerged last week with a big game as another strong runner to give support to QB Aidan O'Connell - who's well-groomed under Brohm. Today, we'll look for the Boilermakers to finally break the losing streak vs Wisconsin. |
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10-16-22 | Bills -2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Bills/Chiefs 4:25: Chiefs inability to fortify their secondary, could be their downfall here. Chiefs are in the bottom tier of the NFL in defending the pass - allowing a generous 255.6 YPG. KC no longer equipped with playmaker Tyrann Mathieu (Saints) and #1 draft pick Trent McDuffie on IR, could be in for a long night here. Bills' QB Josh Allen leads the NFL in yards with 1651, should be able to pick apart the secondary. DC Spagnuolo threw everything but the kitchen sink at Josh Allen in the AFC Division round last season, and Allen was unstoppable. It was the breakout game for Gabe Davis. This week, Spagnuolo had to call up secondary reserves for his thinning secondary. And Buffalo offensive line has done a decent job opening holes for the ground game as well as protecting Allen. Don't see KC stopping the #1 offense in the NFL today. Defensively, Bills sport the #2 defense and have gotten healthy over the last few weeks, including adding additional depth to the defensive line as Ed Oliver is good to go. Road team 9-4 ATS in this series. Bills have covered 6 of last 8 in KC. And with the dramatic win over Las Vegas last Monday, we'll take the team that had an extra day of rest/prep. Take Buffalo. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Bengals/Ravens 8:20: The well-rested Bengals should do well here; after all, last season, Burrow carved up the Baltimore's secondary to the tune of 941 yards, 7 TDs in 2 wins! Back in the day, that would be a good season for a QB. Since then, Harbaugh fired DC Martindale at season end and went in-house with secondary coach Mike McDonald as the DC. The Ravens are now 32nd (last) in the NFL in pass yards allowed (315 YPG). Burrow and company surely licking their chops. Bengals 4-1 ATS at Baltimore, and they're 8-1 ATS vs a division opponent with revenge. Bengals are respectable defensively and rank 4th against the rush and a solid eighth in points allowed (17'). Ravens not a good team in October at 11-27-2 and just 4-12 in Week 5. We'll take the points and the Bengals. |
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10-08-22 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +10.5 | Top | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Wisconsin/Northwestern 3:30: Two struggling Big Ten programs. Wisconsin, off their latest loss to Illinois last week to fall to 2-3 on the season, fired HC Paul Chryst. DC Leonhard takes over HC duties. Meanwhile, Northwestern fell to Penn State in a rain-soaked mess at Happy Valley. The Wildcats dropped to 1-4 with only win coming vs Nebraska in Week O in Dublin, Ireland. That was a Top Play then, and I'm back on Fitgerald as a Top Play here. Wildcats looking to avenge last year's 35-7 whitewashing in Wisconsin. Wisconsin doesn't have the run game this year that they've had in recent years. Last week, Illinois held them to 2 rush yards on 24 carries! And defensively, have slid this year as well (50th in scoring defense). Northwestern has been marred by turnovers (9) and need to clean it up quick. Weather calls for sunshine in Evanston with a bit of wind. We'll look for QB Hilinski to get it together this week. Northwestern has covered 9 of the last 10 at home vs Wisconsin; moreover, Fitzgerald is an amazing 10-1 ATS as a dog with revenge vs .500 or fewer opponent. Northwestern the call. |
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10-02-22 | Washington Commanders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 10-25 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Washington/Dallas 1:00: I don't see a falloff in production from the Cowboys, despite coming off a Monday game. Mccarthy a solid 5-1 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs a less than .500 opponent. Dallas is 4-0 ATS in October and 6-0 ATS vs less than .500 foes. They've dominated the NFC East to the tune of 21-7 ATS. Dec 26th of last year, the Cowboys destroyed Washington 56-14 in this stadium. Cooper Rush (3-0 SU/ATS as a starter) has been solid in his decision making and he's getting time from his offensive line. On the other hand, Wentz has already been sacked 6X. That's bad news as the Cowboys' pass rush has been brutal on QBs thus far (averaging 4.3 sacks per game). Parsons has been virtually unstoppable pressing and sacking QBs. And Washington's tattered offensive line has two linemen - Leno (shoulder) and Schweitzer (concussion) that most likely won't play. And not liking the Washington defense which has been unable to stop anybody this season. In October, Cowboys 9-2 ATS at home vs an opponent off SU/ATS loss. Dallas the call. |
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10-01-22 | West Virginia +9.5 v. Texas | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
West Virginia/Texas 7:30: I'm surprised the Mounties are getting these many points. In recent years, this series has been relatively close, and WV actually is 3-0 ATS in Austin. The Mounties played well on the road this season almost knocking off Pittsburg, destroyed Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. JT Daniels is poised in the pocket and has a serious run game (217.5 YPG) to lean on. Texas defense, however, having trouble stopping both the run and pass; consequently, that doesn't bode well laying 9' points! Texas got whipped 23-31 last year at West Virginia; however, they're a poor 1-6 ATS at home after allowing 35+ points vs an above .500 team. West Virginia the call. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers -1.5 v. Broncos | Top | 10-11 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
49ers/Broncos 8:20: In two games under Hackett, the Broncos have not looked like the power house they were projected to be in the AFC West. Mismanagement of the clock, poor decision making, and not getting plays in quick enough have culminated in an 0-2 ATS mark for the Broncos. Now Hackett has brought in a consultant (Rosburg) to advise him on play calling. With that kind of uncertainty at this stage of the game, we'll go with the defensively stout 49ers who lead the league in defending the pass, #2 vs the run, and #1 in total yards allowed. Bosa is a major disrupter when he's healthy and he'll be on the field. On the other hand, SF's Garoppolo, now 35-16 SU as a starter including playoffs, will have another weapon at his disposal as TE George Kittle is ready to go. And Deebo Samuel is happy Jimmy G is back. He can be utilized more in the offense like last season. We'll grab San Francisco here. |
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09-24-22 | Minnesota -3 v. Michigan State | Top | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
Minnesota/Michigan State 3:30: Gradual erosion taking place at Michigan State. Last season, defensively they yielded 46 YPG more than in 2020. And their secondary ranked 85th but managed an 11-win season and bowl win. They did make big plays, but the wagon is no longer hitched to Heisman finalist Kenneth Walker III. Last week, Washington exploited the Spartans' weaknesses as QB Penix lit up the secondary for 397 yards and 4 TDs. On the offensive side, the Spartans' offensive line couldn't get their top running back going (27 yards on 13 carries). QB Payton Thorne isn't a guy that can carry the team without a strong run game. Minnesota comes in to East Lansing off 3 blowout wins and hungry. Their offense is equipped with a mammoth front line that's opening truck sized holes for their horse Mohamed Ibrahim (464 yards rushing). And veteran signal caller Tanner Morgan is helped with the return of OC Ciarocca this season. Gophers lighting up the scoreboard (47.2 PPG). Minnesota has had success at East Lansing (4-0 ATS). With the road team in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll roll with the Gophers. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Colorado State/Washington State 5:00: Washington State coming off one of the most impressive non-conference victories in school history. They went into Madison, Wisconsin and knocked off the Badgers as a 17.5 point dog. The Cougars' defense held the vaunted Wisconsin run game to less than 4 YPC. Now, the Cougars will take on a Rams' unit that is 130th out 131 teams running the football with a paltry 36 rush YPG. And their QB Millen has been sacked 16 times! It's not that their skill personnel is bad, it's an offensive line that can't block anyone. Jay Norvell won't figure it out just yet. i don't believe Washington State will suffer a letdown here. Cougars covered 4 of last 5 at home and are 15-6 ATS at home vs a team with a losing road record. |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Packers/Vikings 4:25: Packers have lost 4 of the last 6 trips to Minnesota and I'm confident the Vikings can deliver again. Vikings' underrated QB Cousins loaded with weaponry and they're all healthy for a change. Thielen and Justin Jefferson spearhead one of the best WR duos in the NFL. And when RB Cook is doing his thing, Minnesota is hard to stop. Green Bay made some questionable off season moves including not re-signing one of their best pass rushers - Za'Darius Smith (44' sacks/53 tackles in 91 games). The Vikings, ironically, were glad to pick him up to add to their pass rush with Hunter. New DC Ed Donatell, who studied under one of the best defensive minds in the business - Vic Fangio, installed the 3-4 and more built to handle the teams that air it out. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers won't have dominant Devonte Adams (Raiders) to throw to. And Lazard (knee) is doubtful. He has rookie #2 draft pick Christian Watson as one of his go-to guys. Vikings addressed the defensive backfield in the draft and have a nice blend of talent to deliver. Minnesota the call. |
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09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy +5 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Navy 3:30: Memphis program eroding ever since Norvell left for Florida State. Silverfield now 0-10 ATS on the road with Memphis. I definitely don't feel comfortable laying points on the road here in a double revenge situation for Navy. Navy is coming off a disappointing loss to Subdivision Delaware Hens. Navy played uncharacteristically sloppy (3 turnovers) against the Hens. Look for the discipline to be instilled this week under well-organized Navy HC Niumatalolo. Memphis, which got lit up in the air against Mississippi State last week, must now turn their attention to assignment football against the Midshipmen Triple-Option. Not an easy transition. Navy sports a 5-2 ATS mark in this series and the home team is 5-0 ATS. Memphis is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Grab the points at home with the Midshipmen. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Houston/UTSA 3:30: Houston super hyped off their successful 12-win season and an eyeball focused on joining the Big 12 next season. And this one is heavily overweighted with betters pounding Houston. Hype has not been good for Houston; as a matter of fact, since 1949, each time they've come off a double-digit win campaign, they've averaged just 6.5 wins the following year. Holgersen will tease you with a modicum of success and let you down the next. Don't discount UTSA and HC Traylor. They're coming off a highly successful 12-win season themselves. And lots of great skill personnel coming back including QB Frank Harris who can flat out ball. Btw: Roadrunners are 10-1 ATS as a dog of 9 points or less. Grab the points. |
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02-13-22 | Rams v. Bengals +4.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 39 m | Show |
Rams/Bengals 6:30: Much ado about if the Bengals' offensive line can hold up against the formidable Rams' front line. Hypothetically, if the Bengals decide to employ a consistent deep route passing game, then Burrow will most likely be sacked more often than not. Fortunately for Cincinnati, they have the offensive flexibility to employ a quick pass game with their wealth of skill personnel Chase, Higgins and Boyd; moreover, TE Uzomah (MCL) is good to go to work a Rams' defense that has been vulnerable between the numbers throughout the season. Furthermore, Bengals have 1000+ rusher Mixon and Perine to run under the hard charging Aaron Donald, Floyd and Von Miller. And Burrow has developed a strong track record at quickly processing where his open receivers are. And yes, Jalen Ramsey is a solid corner but it's not within the Rams' defensive system to use him as a lockdown corner. When he has matched up against elite receivers, results were mixed; after all, Tampa Bay's Mike Evans worked him pretty well. And let's not forget that the Rams defense gave up 2,614 yards after catch (YAC) - that's the second most in the NFL! On the other hand, loved how Bengals' DC Anarumo has employed multiple blitz packages on opposing QBs in the playoffs. Hendrickson and company have proved to be a formidable line themselves. And with TE Higbee (MCL) not making the rehab progress the Rams had hoped, one less key target for Stafford to go to in taking off pressure from Kupp. Bengals' secondary has been well disciplined throughout playoffs and pose a serious threat. With Bengals possessing a well-rounded team, including special teams, they're a dangerous Super Bowl dog here and I'm taking the points. |
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01-30-22 | 49ers +3.5 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
49ers/Rams 6:40: 49ers have beaten their division rival 6 straight times and I'm taking the points today. 49ers' defense better in every aspect of the game and with the healthy SF defensive line rotation led by Nick Bosa, and the solid run stop unit with healthy MLB Warner, SF has what it takes to slow down the Rams' potent offense. They proved their mettle slowing down the #1 offense in the NFL (Dallas) and then going up to the frozen tundra of Green Bay and knocking the top seed out. Special teams, defense and enough offensive play making. Sure, Garoppolo has been quite mediocre throughout the process but ask any of his teammates who they want on the field with them, and it's a resounding affirmative for Jimmy G. And remember this: Garoppolo sports a 71.7 QBR vs the Rams en-route to a perfect 6-0 mark against them -better than any other NFL QB. He's overdue to post some good numbers today. Rams' defense vulnerable; after all, between the numbers (middle of field), Rams' defense has allowed 77% completions and 7 yards per attempt. Consequently, Shanahan will surely work an effective game plan to utilize his big-time weapons of Kittle, Samuel and even Aiyuk, RB Mitchell and FB Juszczyk to exploit that. SF the call. |