Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-11-24 | 49ers v. Chiefs +2 | 22-25 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
49ers vs. Chiefs 6:30 PM ET Pick: Chiefs +2.0 Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Kansas City is 10-1 SU&ATS in away games or at a neutral site when their point-spread was +3.0 to -3.0. During that exact time span, Kansas City was also a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS as an underdog in away or neutral site games. Andy Reid teams in both Philadelphia and Kansas City have been phenomenal when coming off a bye week. Give me Kansas City plus points. |
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01-28-24 | Lions v. 49ers -7 | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Lions @ 49ers 6:30 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: 49ers -7.0 The difference in this game will be the 49ers passing game against a Detroit defense which has allowed 319 yards or more through the air in each of their previous 5 games. Additionally, the 49ers defense is allowing just 17.7 points and 305.4 yards per game this season which ranks among the league’s best in both categories. Lastly, the 49ers are the more experienced team in big game situations such as these and Detroit takes to the road for a first time this postseason. Give me the 49ers plus points. Props · Brock Purdy over 276.5 passing yards. · 49ers over 30.5 points scored. · Chrisian McCaffery under 84.5 (-115) rushing yards. · Chrisian McCaffery over 36.5 (-115) receiving yards. |
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01-21-24 | Chiefs v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
Chiefs @ Bills 6:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Bills -2.5 (10*) Despite all the success that Patrick Mahomes has had in his career postseason career, this will be his first start on the road in the AFC Wildcard Round, AFC Divisional Round, and AFC Championship Game. Technically Mahomes does have 1 postseason road start and came versus Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl which the Chiefs lost. Buffalo is 8-1 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 14.7 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, the Bills are 5-1 SU in their postseason home games. Additionally, this will be just the 3rd time in that stretch they’ll be a home favorite of 4.5 or less. The previous 2 time they beat Baltimore 17-3 in 2021 and New England 47-17 in 2022. The Bills enter this contest on a 6-game win streak while 4 of those 6 opponents finished with regular season action with a winning record. The Bills suffered 6 losses this season, and they all came by 6 points or fewer. So, a strong case can be made for them being an even better team than their current 12-6 record indicates. It’s been well documented how Buffalo will be shorthanded due to several injuries to starters and most notable on the defensive side of the board. However, they do have quality depth on the defensive side of the ball. Buffalo began their current win streak with a 20-17 win at Kansas City. The Bills are coming off a 31-17 home win over Pittsburgh last week, and they covered as a 10.0-point favorite. The current total on today’s game is 45.5. This sets up a 100% betting angle that has remained unscathed since 2009. NFL postseason home favorites of 7.0 or less with a total that’s 51.0 or less and they’re coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 10.0 or less, resulted in those postseason home favorites going 6-0 ATS since 2009. The average line in those 6 contests was 4.9 and those home favorites won by an average of 13.7 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-21-24 | Bucs +6 v. Lions | 23-31 | Loss | -105 | 42 h 59 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Lions 3:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Buccaneers +6.0 The Lions escaped with a 24-23 home win over the Rams in the Wildcard Round last Saturday night but failed to cover as a 3.0-point favorite. You may be surprised to know, that marked their first win of the season at home versus an opponent that finished regular season action with a winning record. They were 0-2 SU&ATS in their previous 2 games in that role while losing to Seattle and Green Bay. Now they’re better than a touchdown favorite versus a Tampa Bay team which has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 on the road which included an impressive 34-20 win at Green Bay. As a matter of fact, Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games. The Buccaneer quarterback and former first overall draft pick Baker Mayfield is arguably enjoying the best season of his career. As a matter of fact, Mayfield has thrown for 283 yards or more in 4 of his last 5 games. Mayfield will be facing a Detroit defense which has allowed 323 yards or more passing in each of their previous 4 games. The Tampa Bay defense has allowed just 18.6 points per game this season. Additionally, Tampa has allowed only 11.0 points and 272.5 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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01-20-24 | Packers v. 49ers -9.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Packers @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: 49ers -9.5 The public is certainly in love with Green Bay after watching them blow out Dallas as a 7.5-point road underdog in last week’s Wildcard Round. The question then becomes, if they beat the NFC #2 seed easily as a 7.5-point dog, then why are they 9.5-point dogs on Saturday night. The oddsmakers aren’t deterred by what they saw last week, and neither am I. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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01-15-24 | Steelers v. Bills -10 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Bills 4:30 PM ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Bills -10.0 Since the 2011 NFL postseason, playoff home favorites of between -10.0 and -1.5 are 9-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 16.1 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL regular season, the Steelers are 0-4 SU&ATS as an away underdog of 7.5 or greater and they were outscored by 26.0 points per game. Under current head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS as a conference favorite of between 8.0 to 13.5 and won by an average of 17.8 points per game. McDermott’s Bills are also 3-1 SU&ATS versus Mike Tomlin’s Steelers since 2019 and outscored them by an average of 11.4 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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01-14-24 | Packers v. Cowboys -7 | 48-32 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
Packers @ Cowboys 4:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: Cowboys -7.0 Dallas is 8-0 at home this season while outscoring their opponents by an average of 23.5 points scored per game. The Packers enter the postseason on a 3-game win streak but none of those opponents they faced finished with a winning record. Their offense has steadily improved throughout the season to the point they were impressive down the final stretch of regular season action. Much of that success centered around quarterback Jordan Love who has quietly put together a stellar season which saw home throw for 32 touchdown passes against just 11 picks. However, this will be his first career postseason start and, on the road, no less against a Dallas defense that finished regular season action #5 in yards and points allowed per game. Furthermore, Dallas’ offense finished 1st in scoring at 29.9 points scored per game and #5 in total yards at 371.6 yards per game. Throughout the previous 3 seasons, Dallas has gone an outstanding 12-5 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 to 9.5 and outscored their opponents by a substantial margin of 15.4 points per game. |
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01-13-24 | Dolphins v. Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
Dolphins @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 143-144 Play On: Chiefs -4.5 Miami enters the postseason mentally deflated. They lost their last 2 games of regular season action which included last Sunday night’s home loss to Buffalo that dropped them from a #2 to #6 seed. Putting things into perspective, they blew a 3.0 game lead over Buffalo in the last 5 games of the season and choked away a chance to end Buffalo’s 3-year reign as AFC East Division champions. It’s also well documented the recent struggle that Miami has endured when playing teams with a winning record since early last season. To make matters worse, they’ll be facing a Kansas City team which is 8-1 SU & 6-3 ATS in their last 9 postseason home games and that includes 3-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 6.5 or less. NFL postseason home favorites of 5.0 or less with a win percentage of .625 or better versus an opponent coming off 2 consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1996. The average margin of victory in those 7 contests came by an average of 18.9 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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01-13-24 | Browns v. Texans +2.5 | 14-45 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
Browns @ Texans 4:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Texans +2.5 The Browns are getting a lot of love as a Super Bowl sleeper pick out of the AFC. However, getting by Houston on the road will be no easy task despite them currently being a small favorite in the contest. Here’s the thing, Houston has committed just 14 turnovers this season. Conversely, Cleveland has managed to go 11-6 this season despite an alarmingly high 37 turnovers committed. That 37-14 disparity is the largest ever for an NFL postseason game. Let alone, the team that’s -23 is a road favorite. Additionally, Houston is 6-1 SU in their last 7 at home when C.J. Stroud is their starting quarterback. Stroud is a stone-cold lock for NFL Rookie of the Year while throwing 23 touchdowns versus just 5 interceptions in his 15 starts. Compare that to his counterpart Joe Flacco who has thrown 8 picks in just 5 starts. Cleveland’s overall defensive numbers are extremely good. But they’re magnificent at home and average at best on the road where they’re allowing 29.6 points per game. Since 1980, NFL Playoff home underdogs have gone 31-16 ATS including 10-0 ATS and 8-2 SU when they were a dog of 2.0 or less. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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01-08-24 | Washington v. Michigan -4.5 | Top | 13-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Washington vs. Michigan 7:30 PM ET Game# 287-288 Play On: Michigan -4.5 The Wolverines defense will be the difference in this contest and will be the best stop unit that Washington’s offense will have faced all season. The Huskies star quarterback Michael Pennix is adept when it comes to getting rid of the ball quickly and with pinpoint accuracy. Those traits have given opposing secondaries fits this season. However, the Wolverines defense is extremely good and will force Pennix to hang on to the ball a lot more than he’s been used to and in turn will make Michigan’s stellar front 7 a relevant factor. The Wolverines have allowed 24 points or fewer in all 14 games this season and 15 or less on 11 separate occasions. Additionally, Michigan has also allowed less than 200 yards passing in 12 of 14 games. Conversely, Washington has allowed 31 points or more 6 times this season. Here’s another thing that favors Michigan. They’re +16 in the turnover margin this season while Washington is only +1. This is the Wolverines year and they’ll be out to make an emphatic statement tonight. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bills -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
Bills @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -2.5 Buffalo has had Miami’s number in recent season while winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Their lone loss in that sequence was 21-19 on the road in September of 2022. The Bills deserved a better fate in that defeat when considering they outgained Miami 497-212. Additionally, Josh Allen’s career passing and rushing statistics are far and away the best against Miami than any other NFL team. Buffalo has been as healthy as they’ve been in quite some time, while Miami has sustained many key injuries heading into this matchup. Give me Buffalo minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Rams v. 49ers -4 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 47 m | Show | |
Rams @ 46ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: 49ers -4.0 The 49ers have clinched the NFC #1 seed and will rest starters Brock Purdy (QB) and Christian McCaffery (RB) just to name a couple. However, I like the 49ers chances much more with Sam Darnold at quarter than the Rams expected starter Carson Wentz. The Rams have clinched a wildcard berth and will be either a #6 or #7 seed. Hence Sean McVay has chosen to rest starters Mathew Stafford (QB), Aaron Donald (DT), Cooper Kupp (WR), and Kyren Williams (RB). I also like the quality depth on the 4ers roster much more than that of the Rams. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Eagles -4 v. Giants | 10-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Giants 4:25 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Eagles -4.0 The Eagles have pretty much squandered what looked to be a commanding lead in the NFC East with their late season swoon that seen them go 1-4 over their last 5 games. The epitome of that collapse occurred last week when they blew and 15-point halftime lead in a 35-31 home loss versus the Arizona Cardinals (4-12) that allowed the Dallas Cowboys to surpass them in the standings. The bottom line is this, Philadelphia needs something to feel good about heading into the postseason especially where it’s likely they’ll require 3 road wins to get back to the Super Bowl for a 2nd straight season. The Giants (5-11) playoff hopes have long been gone and they enter their regular season finale on a 3-game losing streak. The Giants have lost 5 straight games to the Eagles and by a substantial average of 19.0 points per contest. The Eagle defense has been anything but playoff caliber over their previous 6 games while allowing 31.5 points and 398.8 points per contest. Nonetheless, they don’t figure to get exposed by a Giants offense which has averaged 12.3 points scored and 277.9 yards gained per contest over 7 home games. Give me the Eagles minus points. |
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01-07-24 | Bears v. Packers -2.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
Bears @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Packers -2.5 The Bears have played terrific down the final stretch of regular season action with all being considered. Chicago has won 4 of their last 5 and is 6-1-1 ATS during their previous 8 contests. The Packers have been no slouches as well while winning 5 of their last 7 and averaged 31.2 points scored per game. The Packers are 9-0 SU&ATS in their last 9 versus Chicago including a 38-20 blowout win at Soldier Field in their regular season opener. Urgency and desperation will be on the side of the Packers since with a win earns them an NFL Wildcard spot. Give me the Packers minus points. |
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01-01-24 | Texas -3.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
Texas vs. Washington 8:45 PM ET Game# 279-280 Play On: Texas -3.5 This is one of those situations where many bettors will be lured into taking the underdog Washington Huskies. After all, Washington enters this matchup 13-0 and is the higher ranked team versus the favorite Texas Longhorns (12-1). Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Keep in mind, Washington’s last 9 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. So, it’s not like they’ve been dominating the opposition. Both offenses will be able to move the ball. But I like Texas’ defense much better than that of Washington’s stop unit. Despite their undefeated record, the Washington defense allowed 500 yards or more on 3 separate occasions this season. Give me Texas minus points. |
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01-01-24 | Liberty v. Oregon -17.5 | 6-45 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Liberty vs. Oregon 1:00 PM ET Game# 277-278 Play On: Oregon -17.5 Liberty comes into this New Year’s Fiesta Bowl game undefeated at 13-0 and will take on a Power 5 Conference team for the first time this season. Although they look forward to the challenge and tough task at hand, it may be one of those be careful what you wish for scenarios. 6th year quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Bo Nix will play for Oregon. All Nix did this year was throw for 4145 yards and 40 touchdowns against only 3 picks. Nix also ran for 228 yards and 6 scores as well. Oregon will be without some key offensive skill position players who have opted out. But the Ducks annually bring in top recruiting classes and have high quality depth. Oregon is 11-2 and their only losses were a pair of 3-point defeats against #2 Washington (13-0). Additionally, Oregon is #10 nationally in scoring defense at 17.2 points per game. Oregon is also #2 in both scoring and total offense. Liberty is #1 nationally when it comes to rushing offense at 302.9 yards per game and #3 in total offense. However, Oregon is 12th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 97.9 yards per game. Give me Oregon minus the points. |
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01-01-24 | Iowa v. Tennessee -5.5 | 0-35 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show | |
Iowa vs. Tennessee 1:00 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Tennessee -5.5 Yes, Tennessee starting quarterback Joe Milton Jr. opted out of this bowl game. But, I’m not so sure that’s a bad thing. Tennessee will go with 5* true freshmen Nico Iamaleava who projected to be a star. Iowa’s offense is anemic and that might be kind. On the other hand, the Hawkeye defense is excellent and the main reason they went 10-2 during regular season action before losing to Michigan 26-0 in the Big 10 Championship Game. By, the way, the Tennessee defense is a pretty good unit as well and faced a lot more explosive offenses in the SEC than Iowa faced in the top heavy Big 10. Give me Tennessee minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Bengals +6.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 17-25 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
Bengals @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Bengals +6.5 The Chiefs are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 as a favorite of 8.5 or less. Furthermore, Kansas City is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 at home, and 0-3 SU&ATS at home this season versus opponents that currently own a winning record. The Chiefs are also a concerning -10 turnover margin throughout their previous 8 games. Since taking over at starting quarterback for an injured Joe Burrow, Jale Browning has made 5 starts and averaged 303.0 yards passing per game, threw for 7 touchdowns, and ran for 2 scores. That’s a respectable job done from a backup quarterback. The Bengals are coming off last week’s extremely disappointing 34-11 loss at Pittsburgh which halted their 3-game win streak. Cincinnati is 8-7 and still contending for a Wildcard berth. Here’s the odd thing about the Bengals record this season, they’re a dismal 0-5 versus division opponents, and an impressive 8-2 in their other 10 games. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Cincinnati is a very profitable 9-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.5 to 9.5-points, and they won 7 of those 10 contests SU. Give me the Bengals plus points. |
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12-31-23 | Steelers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 4 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Seahawks 4::05 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Seahawks -3.5 Pittsburgh is coming off a 34-11 home win over Cincinnatti that kept their AFC Wildvcard hopes alive. I’m extremely confident that we’ll see a gross overreaction from the sports betting public as a result. The fact of the matter is I’ve been calling the Steelers a fraud for the last 2 months and 1 dominating performance with a 3rd string quarterback playing over his head isn’t about to change my mind. Although they haven’t attained the results they would have hoped for, Seattle has played very well down the stretch while going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. During that span, they faced San Francisco (11-4) twice, Dallas (10-5), Philadelphia (11-4), and the LA Rams (8-7). Furthermore, Seattle is 4-0 SU in non-division home games this season. Give me the Seahawks minus points. Play on any NFL favorite versus an opponent coming off a SU underdog win by 14 points or more who has a win percentage of between .450 to .550, resulted in those NFL favorites going 52-23 ATS (69.3%) since 1983. |
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12-31-23 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 19-56 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Ravens 1:00 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Ravens -3.0 The Dolphins have played an extremely soft schedule this season that has seen them face 11 teams that currently have a losing record in their first 15 games. Miami finally defeated a team with a winning record for the first time in 29 contests last Sunday in a 2-point home win over Dallas. The previous time they accomplished that feat was in September of 2022 and a 21-19 home win over Buffalo. It’s been quite a while since Miami defeated a team with a winning record on the road. Additionally, Miami has gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 not played at home versus teams with a winning record and allowed 33.3 points per game. The Baltimore defense has played extremely well this season and they’ll be challenged on Sunday by a Miami team which averages 30.9 points scored per game. However, the Ravens are 6-0 SU&ATS this season when they faced a team that was averaging 24.0 or more points scored per contest and with an average victory margin of 21.8 points scored per game. Baltimore also will enter this extremely important AFC matchup on a 5-game win streak in which they outscored those opponents by an average of 12.0 points scored per game. The Ravens have also scored 31 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games played. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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12-31-23 | Raiders v. Colts -4 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Colts -4.0 The Raiders are coming off a emotional 20-14 win at Kansas City as a double-digit underdog. Nevertheless, let’s keep things in perspective because both Raiders touchdowns were scored by their defense, and they faced a Kansas City offense which had been struggling offensively of late and turning the ball over way too much. Truth be told, the Raiders offense produced just an atrocious 205 yards of total offense in that win at Kansas City. They’ve been anemic offensively on the road this season while averaging a scant 14.7 points scored and 236.9 yards gained per game while also being outscored by an average of 9.3 points per contest. The Colts started the season by losing 4 of their first 5 games at home. But they won their last 2 in Indianapolis with victories over Pittsburgh 30-14 and Tampa Bay 27-20 both of which currently have 8-7 records with each still alive for a playoff berth. Unlike the Raiders offensive struggles on the road, the Colts are averaging 27.0 points scored and 375.9 yards gained per game at home. The Colts are engulfed in a 3-way tie for first place in the AFC South standings with Houston and Jacksonville. Urgency, desperation, and playing at home will be instrumental to the Colts getting the win and cover. Give me the Colts minus points. |
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12-30-23 | Auburn -4.5 v. Maryland | 13-31 | Loss | -108 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
Maryland vs. Auburn 2:00 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Auburn -4.5 Auburn is an excellent running team that’s rushed for 144 yards or more in all 7 games versus SEC opponents. That includes running for 244 yards vs. #4 Alabama (12-1) and 219 yards against #6 Georgia (12-1) in near upsets of both those highly ranked foes. Maryland will be without their starting quarterback who opted out to prepare himself for the NFL draft. That’s an issue when considering Marland averages only 109 yards rushing per game and 56.7% of their offensive plays have been pass attempts. Last, the Terrapins defense allowed their last 4 opponents to rush for 152 yards or more (170.8 YPG). Give me Auburn minus points. |
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12-28-23 | Rutgers v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Rutgers vs. Miami Fla. 2:15 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Miami Fla. +2.5 Despite going 3-5 in their last 8 regular season games, Miami still finished at 7-5. Since the start of last season, Rutgers has gone 1-9 ATS when facing a team with a winning record and were outscored by a substantial margin of 26.6 points per game. The Rutgers offense relies heavily on their running game. The Scarlett Knights have run the ball on 62.9% of their offense plays and 54% of their total yards have come on the ground. However, Miami ranks 16th nationally in rush defense while allowing just 96 yards per game and a mere 3.1 yards per rush attempt. Miami will go with 3rd string quarterback Jacurri Brown against Rutgers. Brown will be seeing his first action of the season in the Pinstripe Bowl. Nevertheless, he played in 8 games a season ago which included 2 starts. Brown is a big 240-pound quarterback with agility as evidence by his 223 yards rushing in limited playing time. He also threw for 3 touchdowns and was intercepted just once in those 2 starts. Give me Miami plus points. |
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12-27-23 | Texas A&M v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Texas A& M vs. Oklahoma State 9:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: Oklahoma State -3.5 Texas A&M will be playing with an interim coaching staff while Mike Elko waits in the wings to take over as head coach. The A&M roster has been decimated by opt outs and players entering the transfer portal. Notably starting quarterback Max Johnson and 5 defensive starters that logged 365 plays or more this season. That’s not good news when facing an Oklahoma State team that made it to the Big 12 Conference Championship game and scored 39 points or more in 5 of their last 8 games. Additionally, the Cowboys roster was hardly dented by the transfer portal and opt outs in comparison to the rest of this season’s bowl teams. |
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12-27-23 | North Carolina v. West Virginia -5 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
West Virginia vs. North Carolina 5:30 PM ET Game# 243-244 Play On: West Virginia -5.0 North Carolina will be without their 3 top players in quarterback Drake Maye, wide receiver Tez Walker, and linebacker Cedric Gray. If there’s a reason to call an 8-4 team disappointing, then North Carolina fits the bill. The Tar Heels began the season 6-0 but finished the regular season by going 1-4 versus Division 1 teams. The elephant in the room for North Carolina has been their porous defense and that’s especially been the case during the final stretch of regular season action. North Carolina has allowed 31 points or more in their last 6 games versus Division 1 competition. Conversely, West Virginia has scored 34 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games and surpassed 500 yards of total offense on 4 of those occasions. The Mountaineers have overachieved this season by going 8-4 when considering there wasn’t much expected this season. Furthermore, the Mountaineers roster remains virtually intact in comparison to most of this season's bowl participants when it comes to losing players to the transfer portal or opt outs. Give me West Virginia minus points. |
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12-25-23 | Ravens v. 49ers -6 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
Ravens @ 49ers 8:15 PM ET Game# 481-482 Play On: 49ers -6.0 The 49ers are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 as a favorite of 13.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by 22.0 points per game and with an average line of -6.3. As a matter of fact, San Francisco will enter tonight’s matchup on a 6-game win streak. Since the 2021-2022 season began, San Francisco is 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home after winning 4 or more games in a row and with an average victory margin of 19.3 points per game. Baltimore and Lamar Jackson have put together an excellent winning track record against NFC teams. Buth this 49ers squad is a whole different animal. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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12-24-23 | Cowboys +1.5 v. Dolphins | 20-22 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 7 m | Show | |
Cowboys @ Dolphins 4:25 PM ET Game# 471-472 Play On: Cowboys +1.5 Miami is 0-3 SU&ATS this season versus teams that currently have a winning record and they were outscored by an average of 16.3 points per game. As a matter of fact, the Dolphins are 0-7 SU in their last 7 versus an opponent with a winning record. They haven’t accomplished the feat since beating Buffalo 21-19 during Week 3 of last season. Putting that into perspective, Miami has played 29 consecutive games without beating a team with a winning record. Dallas is coming off a humbling 31-10 loss at Buffalo in a game they were physically manhandled. I look forward to them coming back this week with a superlative effort. Dallas has gone a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss and won by a substantial margin of 23.3 points per game. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season, Dallas has gone 8-0 SU&ATS immediately following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more with an average victory margin of 16.7 points per game. During that same time span, they’re also 6-0 SU&ATS on the road following a SU loss and won by 15.8 points per game. Give me the Cowboys. |
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12-24-23 | Cardinals v. Bears -4 | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Bears 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Bears -4.0 The Bears are coming off a tough 20-17 loss at Cleveland last Sunday. However, Chicago is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Chicago defense has forced an impressive 14 turnovers during their previous 4 games. Chicago is 3-3 at home but probably deserves better when considering that they were a +72.7 yards per game in those contests. On the other hand, they’ll be facing an Arizona team that 1-6 SU on the road with a -9.7 point per game differential and were outgained by 83.6 yards per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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12-23-23 | Bills -12.5 v. Chargers | 24-22 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 24 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chargers 8:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Bills -12.5 The Chargers are a team in disarray and are playing with an interim head coach after the firing of Brandon Staley this past week. The Chargers were embarrassed before a Monday night national televion audience during a 63-21 loss at Las Vegas in a game they trailed 49-0 at halftime. Los Angeles has now lost their last 2, 5 of the last 6, and are now 5-9 (.357) on the season. Furthermore, the Chargers are 0-5 ATS this season as an underdog while being outscored by 14.4 points per game. During their current 1-5 funk in their last 6 they own an atrocious turnover margin of -11. Their only win in that span came at New England (3-11). Any NFL favorite of 10.5 or greater that has a winning record, versus an opponent that possesses a win percentage of .250 to .400 and has lost 2 or more games in a row, resulted in those favorites going 28-3 ATS (90.3%) since 2014. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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12-23-23 | Duke v. Troy -6.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 8 m | Show | |
Duke vs. Troy 12:00 PM ET Game# 221-222. Play On: Troy -6.5 This line speaks volumes to me when considering we have a Sun Belt team that’s a touchdown favorite over a Power 5 Conference opponent. Duke started the season 4-0 which included quality wins over Clemson and Northwestern. Then they went 3-5 the rest of the way. Following that 4-0 start they lost a heartbreaker to Notre Dame in which their starting quarterback Riley Leonard was injured. Leonard was never fully healthy the rest of the season and sat out several games. Ironically Leonard has since transferred to Notre Dame. The quality of depth at quarterback behind Leonard leaves plenty to be desired. Troy started the season 1-2 with their losses coming at Kansas State and versus James Madison (11-1) by a narrow 2-point margin. Since that time, they’ve reeled off 10 wins in a row. Their most recent of those wins came in a 49-23 blowout over Appalachian State in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. The Trojan’s defense has been stout all season while allowing a mere 17.2 points and 308.3 yards per game. Troy is +14.0 points and +117.9 yards per game on their way to a stellar 11-2 record. Give me Troy minus points. |
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12-22-23 | Central Florida v. Georgia Tech +5.5 | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
Georgia Tech vs. UCF 6:30 PM ET Game# 219-220 Play On: Georgia Tech +5.5 UCF started the season 3-0 and then proceeded to go 3-6 during their last 9 games. The Golden Knights are 0-5 ATS this season as a favorite of 8.0 or less and were outscored by an average of 7.8 points per game. Georgia Tech is coming off a 31-23 loss to #6 Georgia in their regular season finale which dropped their record to 6-6. However, the Yellowjackets have gone a perfect 5-0 SU this season immediately following a loss with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per contest, and they were an underdog on 3 of those occasions. Georgia Tech will be facing a UCF team which is averaging 32.3 points scored per game this season. Nonetheless, since the start of last season, Georgia Tech has gone an unscathed 9-0 ATS versus opponents who average 31.0 or more points scored per game. Give me Georgia Tech plus points. |
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12-19-23 | UTSA -10.5 v. Marshall | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show | |
Marshall vs. UTSA 9:00 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: UTSA -10.5 The Roadrunners were the far better team even before the multitude os Marshall players going into the transfer portal. Now they’re the far superior side and the only team that will be UTSA in this matchup is UTSA. Marshall not only has on the field issues but the off the field problems have been equally as troubling. Their current head coach isn’t liked by not only the players but the Thundering Herd’s loyakl fan base as well. There are also no viable sources for NIL money. Hence the inordinate number of players jumping ship once the regular season concluded. Speaking of the regular season, Marshall began the 2023 campaign 4-0 and has gone a dismal 2-6 since. The Thundering Herd are 0-5 SU&ATS this season as an underdog of 2.0 or greater and were outscored by an average of 17.0 points per game. UTSA began the season 1-3 and then proceeded to win 7 of their last 8 contests with their lone defeat coming against eventual AAC champion Tulane 29-16 on the road. The key to UTSA winning and covering in this spot is 7th year senior quarterback Frank Harris Jr. who when healthy like he is now makes the Roadrunners a very difficult offense to defend. UTSA is 8-2 this season with Harris as their starting quarterback. UTSA has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 14.0 or less while outscoring those opponents by an average of 22.0 points per game. Give me UTSA minus points. |
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12-18-23 | Eagles v. Seahawks +3.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Seahawks 8:15 PM ET Game# 327-328 Play On: Seahawks +3.5 Philadelphia star quarterback Jalen Hurs is listed as questionable as he’s been battling an illness the last few days. The Eagles are 1-2 in their last 3. They’re lucky not to be 0-3 in those previous 3 if not for a 61-yard field goal by Jake Elliott on the last play of regulation time which sent the game to overtime and enabled them to escape with 37-34 win over Buffalo. The Eagles defense is a major concern of late. During those previously mentioned 3 contests they allowed 33 points or more on each occasion and an alarmingly high 451.7 yards per game. The Seahawks have lost 4 straight and are now 6-7 but still very march alive for a possible NFC Wild Card spot. It must be noted, those previous 4 losses were to San Francisco (11-3) twice, Dallas (10-4), and a Rams (7-7) team that’s won 4 of their last 5. Additionally, Seattle was an underdog in all 4 of those losses and covered on 3 of those occasions. Any NFL team like Seattle that’s facing an opponent like Philadelphia that’s allowing 24 or more points per game and gave up 30 points or greater in each of their previous 4 games, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 39-9 SU (81.3%) since the start of the 2019-2020 season. Since this money line betting angle supports the underdog in this matchup it takes on added significance. Give me the Seahawks plus points. |
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12-18-23 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion -6 | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 52 m | Show | |
Old Dominion vs. Western Kentucky 2:30 PM ET Game# 201-202 Play On: Old Dominion -6.0 Western Kentucky will be without senior starting quarterback Austin Reed and several of their starting offensive linemen. Old Dominion has faced 8 bowl teams during regular season action and that doesn’t even include James Madison (11-1) that was ineligible to play in postseason action. They went 4-5 in those contests. The monarchs finished regular season play with wins over Georgia Southern and Georgia State to become bowl eligible and will surely be motivated to play the Famous Toastery Bowl at Jerry Richardson Stadium in Charlotte which is the home of the NFL Carolina Panthers. Give me Old Dominion minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bears v. Browns -2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Bears @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Browns -2.5 The Bears are getting a lot of love from bettors this week after going 3-1 in their last 4 and covering on each occasion. However, let’s not get carried away. Cleveland is 6-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Baltimore in a game that starting quarterback Deshaun Watson was a late scratch and was replaced by rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson who was brutal. With Watson gone for the year due to injury, the Browns signed veteran Joe Flacco off the couch and in 3 has played more than respectable. Additionally, the Browns defense has been sensational in their 7 contests at home while allowing a mere 12.6 points and 192.4 yards per game. Give me the Browns minus points. |
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12-17-23 | Bucs +3.5 v. Packers | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
Buccaneers @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Buccaneers +3.5 It will be unseasonably warm in Green Bay with little chance of rain and winds below 10 MPH. That’s good news and a pleasant surprise for a warm weather team like Tampa Bay playing at Green Bay in December. The key to the Bucs covering and giving them a strong possibility of winning this game outright will be their ability to run the ball effectively. Hence, opening up plenty of favorable play action pass opportunities for Baker Mayfield and company. Green Bay’s run defense has been brutal despite them making a midseason postseason push. During their previous 5 contests, the Green Bay defense has allowed 170.4 yards per game on the ground and an alarmingly high 6.1 yards per rushing attempt. The Bucs running game was anemic for most of this season. However, during their last 3 outings they’ve rushed for 133.7 yards per game and averaged a healthy 4.7 yards per attempt. Tampa Bay enters this week in a 3-way tie atop the NFC South Division. The Bucs have been very profitable on the road this season while going 6-1 ATS. Green Bay had their bubble burst and 3-game win streak halted in last Monday’s 24-22 road loss to the New York Giants. Give me the Buccaneers plus points. |
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12-17-23 | Texans +3.5 v. Titans | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Texans @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Texans +3.5 Yes, C.J. Stroud will not play for Houston this week after suffering a concussion during last Sunday’s 30-6 road loss to the Jets. However, his backup Davis Mills was the Texans starter the previous 2 seasons and is more than capable of giving them an reasonable opportunity to win and especially so against a below average team like Tennessee. You may be surprised to know that Houston has gone an extremely profitable 6-1 SU&ATS in division road game since the start of the 2021-2022 season. That includes a 37-17 blowout win over Jacksonville in their only division road game this season. Keep in mind, that means Davis Mills was 5-1 SU&ATS as a starter in division road games the past 2 seasons. Since Week 3, Houston is 4-0 SU following a loss. Tennessee is coming off last Monday’s huge 28-27 upset win over Miami in a game they were a 13.0-point underdog. Nonetheless, the Titans haven’t won 2 in a row all season and are 0-4 SU&ATS following a win. Lastly, the visiting teams are 5-0 SU in the last 5 games between these division rivals. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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12-16-23 | California +3 v. Texas Tech | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 48 m | Show | |
California vs. Texas Tech 9:15 PM ET Game# 211-212 Play On: California +3.0 When it comes to minor bowl games such as this, it’s just a matter of what team is more motivated. I firmly believe that the team will be California in this matchup. There were high expectations for Texas Tech heading into the season being that they had 17 returning starters including all 11 on offense from a team that went 8-5 the year before. But they finished regular season action with a very uninspiring 6-6 record to barely qualify for postseason action. On the other hand, not much was expected from California heading into the year and it came as no surprise that they were 3-6 through their first 9 games. However, the finished their regular season slate by going 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 including a pair of road wins to close out the campaign over Stanford and UCLA which made them bowl eligible. I look for an inspired effort from the Golden Bears in this one. They key to victory will be California being able to run the ball with a high degree of success. Throughout their last 3 contests, Texas Tech allowed 207 yards or more on the ground during each occasion, and opponents averaged an alarmingly high 5.9 yards per rushing attempt. Cal averaged an impressive 182.7 yards per game on the ground this season and a healthy 4.7 yards per rushing attempt. Give me California plus points. |
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12-16-23 | UCLA -5.5 v. Boise State | 35-22 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
Boise State @ UCLA 7:30 PM ET Game# 209-210 Play On: UCLA -5.5 This game will almost be like a home game for UCLA with it being played at So-Fi Stadium in Los Angeles. Boise State’s starting quarterback Taylen Green entered the transfer portal following the Broncos MWC Championship Game win over UNLV. The Broncos are set to start freshmen C.J. Tiller at quarterback who hasn’t thrown a pass this season. Boise State will rely on their ground attack and star running back Ashton Jeanty who ran for 1262 yards this season. However, he’ll be facing a UCLA defense that was 5th nationally in rushing defense at 68.6 yards per game. The Bruins starting cornerbacks entered the transfer portal, but I would be more concerned if Boise State had a more experienced signal caller than C.J. Tiller. Give me UCLA minus points. |
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12-16-23 | Steelers +2 v. Colts | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 7 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Colts 4:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Steelers +2.0 The Pittsburgh quarterback situation leaves a lot to be desired with backup Mitchell Trubisky under center. However, the Steelers running game will be the difference in this matchup. During their previous 7 contests the Colts have allowed an alarmingly high 147.0 yards rushing per game in addition to 4.6 yards per attempt. Conversely, throughout their previous 6 contests the Steelers have rushed for 151.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt. The Steelers ability to run the ball effectively will set up some favorable play action passing opportunities for Trubisky and take a huge load off his shoulders. Furthermore, the Steelers are 2-0 SU&ATS this season as a non-division away underdog. Additionally, the Colts are 5-2 this season in neutral site and away games but a poor 2-4 at home. Since the 2021-2022 NFL season began, Pittsburgh is 7-2 SU&ATS on the road when the point-spread is between +3.0 and -3.0. On the other hand, during that identical time span, the Colts are 4-8 SU&ATS at home when the point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Once again since the 2021-2022 season consummated, Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU&ATS as a road underdog of 3.0 or less. Give me the Steelers plus points. |
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12-16-23 | Miami-OH v. Appalachian State -6.5 | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 5 m | Show | |
Miami-Ohio vs. Appalachian State 3:30 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Appalachian State -6.5 This opening line and the ensuing movement speak volumes to me. We have an Appalachian State team who was blown out in the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game by Troy as currently better than a touchdown favorite the MAC champion Miami-Ohio Red Hawks. Truth be told, the Sun Belt was far and away better than the MAC this season from top to bottom. There were 10 of 12 Sun Belt teams that were bowl eligible and the MAC was extremely top heavy and with a lot of bad teams. Despite that loss to Troy, the Mountaineers enter the bowl season 8-5 and with their other 4 losses coming by 7 points or fewer. Miami was terrific defensively during conference play while allowing just 12.0 points per game. However, in 3 non-conference games versus FBS opponents the Red Hawks surrendered 30.0 points and 445.7 yards per game. The Redhawk’s offense leaves much to be desired. Throughout their previous 6 contests they averaged only 21.5 points scored and 281.0 yards gained per game. They’re going to be facing a Mountaineers offense that averages 34.8 points scored and 452.2 yards gained per game. Give me Appalachian State minus points. |
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12-16-23 | Vikings v. Bengals -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 46 h 39 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bengals -3.0 Both teams have lost their starting quarterbacks for the season due to injury. However, I give a huge edge to Cincinnati when it comes to the backup quarterback situation. Jake Browning will be making his 4th start since taking over for Joe Burrow. During his first 3 starts he’s been nothing short of superb with all be considered while completing 79.3% for 856 yards and 4 touchdowns and ran for 2 scores. The Bengals are coming off a pair of wins over the Colts 34-14 and 34-31 at Jacksonville as a 10.0-point underdog. Conversely, the Vikings escaped with a 3-0 win at Las Vegas last Sunday. It was the 2nd straight listless offensive performance for Minnesota who 2 weeks ago lost 12-10 at home to Chicago. Cincinnati is 4-1 in non-division home game this season. Cincinnati has also been very good at protecting the football this season while committing just 11 turnovers through 13 games. That hasn’t been the case for Minnesota who has committed 24 turnovers this season. Finally, under current head coach Zack Taylor, Cincinnati has gone an extremely profitable 8-1 SU&ATS in regular season games 13 through 17. Give me the Bengals minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Eagles v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 13-33 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
Eagles @ Cowboys 8:20 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Cowboys -3.5 Let’s start with this. The Cowboys are averaging 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home while averaging a massive 4141.0 points scored and 438.0 yards gained per game. Conversely, the Eagles have allowed 29.4 points and 433.0 yards per game throughout their previous 4 contests. The stout Dallas defense had an uncharacteristically bad game during last week’s 41-35 home win over Seattle in which they allowed the Seahawks to rack up 406 yards of total offense. Since the start of the 2021-2022 season Dallas has gone 10-0 SU&ATS after a contest in which they allowed 400 yards or more and won by an average of 17.5 points per game. During that identical time span, Dallas went 7-0 SU&ATS following a game in which they allowed 30 points or more and won by an average of 15.1 points per contest and held their opponents to a mere 14.9 points scored per outing. The Cowboys will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia earlier this season. Dallas deserved a better fate in that contest when considering they outgained the Eagles in total yards by a margin of 406-292. Give me the Cowboys minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Bills +1 v. Chiefs | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
Bills @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Bills +1.0 This point-spread jumped off the screen when I first looked with the Chiefs only opening as a 3.0-point home favorite. My eyes opened even wider this morning when I saw this line drop to 1.0 or a pick depending on the sportsbook. After all, Buffalo is 6-6 and the defending world champion Chiefs are 8-4. Especially since Kansas City has been so good at home and extremely tough to beat following a loss under Andy Reid. The Chiefs are 20-4 SU in their last 24 at home. However, 2 of those 4 losses came versus Buffalo. Additionally, the Chiefs are 10-0 SU in their last 10 and 15-1 SU during their previous 16 immediately following a loss. The flip side to that equation is that Buffalo is 5-1 SU under head coach Sean McDermott following a scheduled bye week. The Bills are also much better than their 6-6 record with all those 6 defeats coming by a combined 26 points and each loss came by 6 points or fewer. Not to mention, 2 of those setbacks came in overtime. Buffalo will be in desperation and urgency mode knowing they have virtually no more room for error when it comes to making the playoffs. Give me the Bills in this one. |
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12-10-23 | Vikings -2.5 v. Raiders | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
Vikings @ Raiders 4:05 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Vikings -2.5 After going through a stretch in which they went 5-0 SU&ATS, the Viking have lost their last 2 contests and by just a combined 3 points. They shot themselves in the foot in both losses by committing 7 turnover which were mostly the fault of starting quarterback Joshua Dobs. After much speculation earlier this week, Dobbs will remain the starter and will gladly welcome back star wide receiver Justin Jefferson back from an injury that forced him to miss 7 games. The Raiders (4-8) are a mess, and their offense has been anemic while scoring 17 points or fewer in 10 of 12 games. The Vikings are 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS on the road this season when facing teams like the Raiders who currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. Their lone SU loss in that sequence was 21-20 at Denver in which they led for much of the game. The Vikings defense is a very underrated unit which has allowed only 20.2 points and 320.3 yards per game. Give me the Vikings minus points. |
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12-10-23 | Lions -3 v. Bears | 13-28 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
Lions @ Bears 1:00 PM ET Game# 109-110 Play On: Lions -3.0 The Bears have received a lot of love this week with regards to public betting. I am not one of those individuals. Yes, the Lions needed a late 26-14 deficit in their first meeting against Chicago by scoring 17 unanswered points in the last 3:05 to win 31-26. Let’s keep things in proper perspective, the Lions turned the ball over 4 times in that contest and had a -3 turnover margin and were still able to win. The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS as a road favorite this season and with an average victory margin of 9.0 points per game. Conversely, the Bears are a miserable 0-7 ATS in their last 7 and 1-10 SU&ATS during their previous 11 as a division home underdog. The Lions are coming off last Sunday’s 33-28 win at New Orleans in which they covered as a 5.0-point favorite. The Bears are coming off a 12-10 win at Minnesota in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. NFL division road favorites that are coming off a non-division road ATS favorite cover, versus an opponent that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a game in which they allowed 20 points or fewer, resulted in those road favorites going 11-0 ATS since 1984. Those road favorites won those 11 contests by a decisive margin of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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12-07-23 | Patriots v. Steelers -5.5 | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Steelers -5.5 The Steelers are coming off a 24-10 loss to Arizona in a game they closed as a 6.5-point home favorite. However, Pittsburgh has yet to lose 2 straight games this season. As a matter of fact, the Steelers are 4-0 SU&ATS this season following a loss. New England is coming off a 6-0 home loss to the Los Angeles Chargers. The Patriots have now gone 0-5 SU&ATS in their last 5 games. Since winning their road season opener versus the Jets, New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in true away games and lost by an average of 14.0 points per contest. Pittsburgh is at a +10-turnover margin for the season while New England is -9 in that category. Since the start of the 2021-2022 NFL season, Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU&ATS at home following a game in which they scored 14 points or fewer. During that identical time span, New England is 4-10 ATS as an underdog and 2-8 SU/1-9 ATS following 2 straight games in which they scored 17 points or fewer. Any NFL favorite of 8.0 or less with a winning record, versus an opponent like New England that’s coming off 3 losses in a row in which they scored 7 points or fewer on each occasion, resulted in those favorites going 8-0 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 13.9 points per game. Give me the Steelers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Panthers v. Bucs -3.5 | 18-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Buccaneers 4:05 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Buccaneers -3.5 Carolina is an awful 1-10 and has been an underdog in all 11 games this season but still is a money-draining 1-8-2 ATS. Furthermore, they’re 0-7 SU and 0-5-2 ATS when facing fellow NFC teams. Carolina has scored 15 points or fewer and gained 275 yards or less during each of their previous 5 games. The Panthers have failed to force a turnover in each of their last 3 games. They have a -7-turnover margin for the season while Tampa Bay is +5 in that category. The Bucs are a more than respectable 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS this season when facing a team that currently has a win percentage of .500 or worse. Despite their 4-7 season record, Tampa Bay is just 1.0 game behind New Orleans and Atlanta for the NFC South Division lead. This will only be the 4th time the Bucs are a favorite this season and they covered 2 of the previous 3 in that role. Give me the Buccaneers minus points. |
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12-03-23 | Lions v. Saints +4 | 33-28 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Saints 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Saints +4.0 The Lions have committed 7 turnovers in their last 2 games. During those contests they needed a miracle comeback to beat Chicago 31-26 and lost to Green Bay 29-22 as an 8.5-point favorite with both played at home. The Saints are coming off a disappointing 24-15 road loss as a 1.0-point favorite at Atlanta that dropped their season record to 5-6. However, New Orleans is in a tie for 1st place with Atlanta in a weak NFC South Division and has plenty of incentive heading into this match against an 8-3 Lions tea. Any NFL home underdog of 5.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off an away favorite SU loss and they’re playing after Game 7, versus an opponent coming off a SU&ATS loss, resulted in those home underdogs going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The home underdogs won those 8 contests by an average of 8.4 points per game. |
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12-02-23 | Michigan v. Iowa +22.5 | 26-0 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
Iowa @ Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Iowa +22.5 Let me start by stating the obvious, Michigan is unequivocally the far superior team in this matchup as this current point-spread indicates. I just think this sets up for a potential flat spot for the undefeated Wolverines as it applies to covering this big a number. Michigan comes off a huge emotional when over bitter rival and then undefeated Ohio State this past Saturday. Awaiting them is a semifinal game in the College Football 4-team Playoffs. Sandwiched between is the formalityof playing in the Big 10 Championship game in which they’re installed as a better than 3-touchdown favorite against an offensively inept Iowa (10-2) team that averages a mere 18.0 points scored per contest. However, the Hawkeyes defense has been nothing short of excellent while holding opponents to 16 points or fewer in 11 of 12 games. Iowa’s defense will keep them in this contest for a long period of time and play a big part in staying inside of this huge number. Give me Iowa plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Georgia v. Alabama +5.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Alabama vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Alabama +5.5 Stop the press, Alabama is an underdog for just the 8th time since 2008 and they went a very profitable 5-2 SU&ATS in their previous 7 and all with Nick Saban as their head coach. Ironically enough 4 of those 7 games were against Georgia and they 3-1 SU&ATS in those contests. If the Crimson Tide has any chance of reaching the College Football Playoffs they absolutely must beat Georgia on Saturday. One of those wins came in the 2021 SEC Championship Game when they knocked off Georgia 41-34 as a 6.0-point underdog then only lose to the Bulldogs 5 weeks later in the National Championship Game 5 weeks later. That defeat put a halt to Alabama winning 7 straight over Georgia. This game goes right down to the wire. Give me Alabama plus points. |
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12-02-23 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -14.5 | 21-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Texas -14.5 Texas’ chances to reach the College Football 4-Team Playoffs are very real. Their first order of business is taking care of Oklahoma State, or every other scenario is moot without that transpiring. It wouldn’t hurt to have some style points while doing so which is namely winning by a large margin. A narrow victory will likely not be good enough to sway the committee. The Longhorns will also be playing with revenge stemming from a 41-34 loss at Oklahoma State last October. Oklahoma State had an impressive 5-0 SU&ATS streak earlier this season which included upsets of Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Since then, they’ve gone 2-1 with an inexplicable 45-3 blowout loss to UCF, allowed Houston (4-8) to give them all they can handle in a 43-30 win, and then last week needed overtime to beat BYU (5-7) at home. They also were blown out at home by South Alabama earlier this season. Give me Texas minus points. Any College Football favorite of 3.0 or greater that’s playing with revenge in a conference championship game like Texas will be doing, resulted in those favorites going 7-0 ATS and with an average victory margin of 18.9 points per game. Give me Texas minus points. |
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12-01-23 | Oregon -9.5 v. Washington | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
Oregon vs. Washington 8:00 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Oregon -9.5 This line jumped right off the screen at me last Sunday night. Oregon opened as a 7.5-point favorite, and it was quickly moved to 9.5 with the game being played on a neutral field in Las Vegas. Keep in mind, the Ducks sustained their only loss of the year earlier this season in a 36-33 heartbreaking setback at Washington. The Ducks missed a 38-yard field goal with no time left in that contest and deserved a better fate when considering they outgained Washington is that contest by a wide margin of 126 yards while also not committing a turnover. The Huskies are 12-0 but have won their last 8 games by just 10 points or fewer. Washington’s defense and received acclaim for being so good in the 4th quarter of games down the stretch. However, the Huskies stop unit has allowed 500 yards or more on 3 occasions this season which included 545 versus Oregon. Oregon is a terrific 9-2 ATS as a favorite this season. Oregon has amassed 500 yards or more of total offense in 9 of their 12 games. Furthermore, over their previous 4 contests the Ducks are averaging 44.7 points scored and 562.0 yards gained per game. Since 1993, favorites of 3.0 or more in conference championship games that are playing with revenge went 7-0 SU&ATS. The favorites average line in those contests was -9.1 and their margin of victory came by 18.9 points per game. All 7 wins came by 14 points or greater. Give me Oregon minus points as my College Football Conference Championship Game of the Year. |
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11-26-23 | Ravens v. Chargers +3 | Top | 20-10 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
Ravens @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Chargers +3.0 The Ravens are coming off a 34-20 home win over the Bengals. However, that win came at a heavy expense as they lost star tight end Mark Andrews to an injury that will keep him out for an indefinite period. Additionally, the Ravens are 0-4 SU&ATS over the past 3 seasons following a division win. The Chargers are coming off a 23-20 loss at Green Bay as a 3.0-point favorite. That dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 4-6. Nonetheless, it’s a deceiving 4-6 when considering they’ve now suffered 5 losses by 3 points or fewer. Throughout the past 3 seasons, the Chargers are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS after Game 2 and following a SU favorite loss. Since the start of the 2018-2019 NFL season, underdogs of 5.5 or less who are playing after Game 8 that possess a losing record and are coming off a SU favorite loss, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .333 or better, resulted in those underdogs going a spotless 11-0 ATS. Those underdogs of 5.5 or less also won 10 of those 11 contests SU. Give me the Chargers plus points as my Sunday NFL Top Play. |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
Bills @ Eagles 4:25 PM ET Game# 267-268 Play On: Bills +3.0 When you look at the raw data on this game, you have to question how Philadelphia is only a small favorite. After all, the Eagles are the defending NFC champion and are currently 9-1. On the other hand, Buffalo has vastly underachieved this season thus far on the way to a 6-5 record. However, the Bills 5 losses came by just a combined 23 points. Buffalo is coming off a 32-6 blowout home win over the Jets. The Eagles are 4-0 at home but with only a +7.0 point per game differential. As a matter of fact, 3 of those 4 wins came by 6 points or fewer. The Eagle defense has been a bit of concern over their last 3 contests while allowing 23.7 points and 404.6 yards per game. Over the past 3 seasons, the Bills are 5-0 SU on the road in Games 10 through 13 and with an average victory margin of 15.2 points per game. Any NFL non-division away team playing in Games 10 through 13 who are coming off a division win by 10 points or more, and they’ve won 14 or more of their last 32 away games, resulted in those away teams going a perfect 9-0 SU&ATS since 2019. The average victory margin in those 9 wins came by an average of 16.6 points per game. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-25-23 | Florida State -6.5 v. Florida | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Florida State @ Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 153-154 Play On: Florida State -6.5 Both teams lost their starting quarterbacks to injury last season and will go with backups under center on Saturday. However, the Florida State defense is far superior to Florida’s stop unit. The Gators have allowed 41.5 points and 537.2 yards per game during their previous 5 contests. Additionally, Florida has lost 4 straight since starting the season 5-2. Florida State is allowing just 13.7 points and 278.7 yards per contest throughout their previous 7 games. I look for the Seminoles to have a high degree of success running the ball in this game when considering Florida has allowed 214.0 yards per game rushing over their previous 5. Give me Florida State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | BYU v. Oklahoma State -16 | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
BYU @ Oklahoma State 3:30 PM ET Game# 215-216 Play On: Oklahoma State -16.0 BYU started the season. However, since that time they’ve lost 4 straight and by an average of 24.5 points per game. Additionally, the Cougars are 0-4 SU&ATS in conference road games this season and with another sizable loss margin of 25.7 points per contest. Oklahoma State has won 6 of their last 7, including quality home underdog upset wins over Kansas (7-4), #19 Kansas State (8-3), and #13 Oklahoma (10-2). During those conference home wins the Cowboys averaged 35.0 points scored and 512.3 yards gained per game. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Ohio State @ Michigan 12:00 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: Michigan -3.0 Since the start of the 2021 season, Michigan has gone a perfect 21-0 SU at home. That includes 3-0 SU&ATS as an underdog or favorite of 7.0 or less with an average victory margin of 19.7 points per game. Michigan has beaten Ohio State in emphatic fashion during the last 2 meetings by scores of 45-23 and 42-27. Michigan went without a turnover committed in 7 of 11 games this season and are a +11 turnover margin for the year. Ohio State has forced only 10 turnovers in their first 11 games. So, there’s very little chance that Michigan will be themselves on Saturday. The total in this contest is currently 46.5. Since the start of last season, Michigan is 6-0 SU&ATS whenever the total was 42.5 to 49.0 and with an average victory margin of 32.6 points per game. Give me Michigan minus points. |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets +10 | 34-13 | Loss | -125 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
Dolphins @ Jets 3:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Jets +10.0 The Jets are coming off a 32-6 blowout loss at Buffalo and didn’t come close to covering as a 10.0-point away underdog. That defeat dropped their season record to 4-6 (.400). They’ll be playing the AFC East Division leading Miami Dolphins who are 7-3. NFL division home underdogs of between 1.5 to 13.0 with a win percentage of .636 or worse that are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they scored 6 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those division home underdogs going 18-0 ATS since 1999. Those division home underdogs also went 10-8 SU during those contests. Give me the Jets plus points. |
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11-23-23 | Packers v. Lions -7.5 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 3 m | Show | |
Packers @ Lions 12:30 PM ET Game# 105-106 Play On: Lions -7.5 The Lions are 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games versus Green Bay. Under current head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone a perfect 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite of 7.5 or less when facing an opponent coming off a SU win with an average victory margin of 13.0 points per game. Green Bay is coming off last week’s home upset 23-20 win over the Chargers. The Packers are 0-3 SU following a win this season and failed to cover on 2 of those occasions. Any NFL division home favorite of between 7.0 to 14.0 that playing in Game 3 through 12, and they scored 34 points or fewer in their previous contest, versus an opponent coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 ATS since 2002. Their average margin of victory during those 13 contests came by a decisive margin of 19.0 points per game. Give me the Lions minus points. |
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11-20-23 | Eagles v. Chiefs -2.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 12 m | Show | |
Eagles @ Chiefs 8:15 ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chiefs -2.5 No head coach in NFL history has his teams more prepared when coming off a regular season bye week than Andy Reid. He was the head coach for the Eagles for 14 years and followed that up with his current tenure in Kansas City which began in 2013. During that time, Reid’s teams have gone 23-3 SU in regular season games when coming off a bye week. Those SU results take on added significance in tonight’s game considering the Chiefs are laying such a small number. This year’s version of the the Chiefs isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as what we’ve become accustomed to in recent years. However, this may be the best defense they’ve had since Reid arrived in town. Kansas City has allowed 21 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games this season while holding opponents to less than 300 yards or total offense 5 times. Since the 2020-2021 season began, Kansas City is 4-1 SU&ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 or less. Additionally, the Chiefs are 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 12.0 or less when the total was between 42.5 and 49.0. They won those 7 contests by a decisive margin of 18.1 points per game. Since losing their home opener to Detroit 21-20, the Chiefs have gone 3-0 SU&ATS at Arrowhead Stadium with an average victory margin of 18.7 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Vikings +3 v. Broncos | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
Vikings @ Broncos 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Vikings +3.0 The Broncos are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. But it comes with an asterisk since they has a massive +8 turnover differential in those contests that were instrumental in them prevailing. During that stretch, the Broncos offense has only averaged 293.0 yards of total offense per game. Additionally, Denver has been outgained in 8 of 9 games this season with the line exception being +8 in total yards versus Green Bay. The Viking are a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games in which 4 of those came as a pick or underdog. Minnesota is also 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 on the road. Granted those 4 wins all came over teams that currently have a losing record. However, despite their recent win streak, Denver is still only 4-5 this season. The Vikings defense has been a very formidable unit since Game 4 of their season. During their last 7 contests they’ve allowed just 18.1 points and 297.9 yards per game. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-19-23 | Cardinals v. Texans -5.5 | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Texans 1:00 PM ET Game# 453-454 Play On: Texans -5.5 Arizona got a much-needed spark last Sunday with the season debut of star quarterback Kyler Murray and pulled out a 25-23 home win over Tampa Bay. However, this still isn’t a very good Cardinals team even with Murrays’ return. The Cardinals are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS on the road this season while losing by an average of 15.4 points per game. After losing their first 2 games of the season Houston proceeded to win 5 of their next 7. The only losses in that sequence both took place on the road and came by exactly 2-points on each occasion. With a little bit of luck we could be talking about team on a 7-game win streak. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud is the prohibitive favorite to win NFL Rookie of the Year. The former Ohio State Buckeye has thrown for 15 touchdowns and has only been intercepted twice. He’s been especially exceptional over the last 2 games while throwing for 826 yards, 6 touchdowns, and was picked off just 1 time. Both those efforts were catalysts in Houston’s 39-37 win over Tampa Bay and 30-27 victory at Cincinnati. Furthermore, the Texans rushed for a season high 188 yards in last Sunday’s win over the Bengals. Any NFL non-division favorite of 3.5 or greater like Houston that’s playing after Game 8, and they’re coming off 2 consecutive wins in which they scored 30 points or more, versus an opponent like Arizona who’s coming off a SU underdog win resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 ATS since 1995, and with an average victory margin of 17.3 points per game. Give ne the Texans minus points. |
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11-19-23 | Giants v. Commanders -8.5 | 31-19 | Loss | -111 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Commanders -8.5 Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for the Giants, they were crushed at Dallas last Sunday 49-17 and even failed to cover as a mammoth 17.0-points underdog. That came on the heels of a 30-6 blowout loss at Las Vegas the week before. The Giants defense allowed Dallas to rack up a massive 650 yards of total offense which included 472 yards through the air. Now they’ll be facing a young quarterback in Washington’s Sam Howell who’s truly come into his own during recent performances. Throughout his previous 3 games, Howell has gone 97-141 (68.8%) passing for 934 yards and 8 touchdowns versus 2 interceptions. The Commanders will be out to atone for an embarrassing 14-7 road loss to the Giants earlier this season. The Commanders defense will be facing a Giants offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their previous 8 games. Now they’re down to 3rd string undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito. DeVito was an average at best quarterback in college at Syracuse and Illinois where he underperformed as a 4-Star recruit coming out of high school. DeVito was 14-27 passing for 86 yards in his NFL starting debut at Dallas last week. When you have a 4-6 team like Washington that’s better than a touchdown favorite, it speaks to the ineptitude of the opponent they’re about to go up against. Give me the Commanders minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Kansas State -9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
Kansas State @ Kansas 7:00 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Kansas State -9.5 So let me get this straight, both teams have identical 7-3 records and are ranked in the Top 25. Yet, one team (Kansas State) comes up as better than a touchdown road favorite. They’re begging yo to take the home underdog Kansas Jayhawks. Nonetheless, I’m not taking the bait. Give me Kansas State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma State -6 v. Houston | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ Houston 4:00 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Oklahoma State -6.0 Oklahoma State is coming off an embarrassing 45-3 loss at Central Florida as a 2.5-point favorite last week. That halted a Cowboys red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS winning run. The oddsmakers seem undeterred by that result when considering they made them a touchdown road favorite this week. The Cowboy’s enigma has been their defense. However, they’ll be matchup against a Houston offense that’s averaged a mere 13.0 points scored and 238.3 yards gained per game over their previous 3 contests. Despite last week’s poor offensive showing at Central Florida, Oklahoma State had averaged 36.0 points scored and 497.0 yards gained per contest during their previously mentioned 5-game win streak. Look for that offensive firepower to return on Saturday against a 4-6 Houston team. Furthermore, Houston is at a -6 turnover margin throughout their previous 3 games and Oklahoma State is +6 over the previous 6 contests. Give me Oklahoma State minus points. |
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11-18-23 | Georgia v. Tennessee +9.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 12 m | Show | |
Georgia @ Tennessee 3:30 PM ET Game# 329-330 Play On: Tennessee +9.5 If it’s possible to say that a 10-0 team like Georgia has shown steady improvement every week then that’s certainly true in this instance. Tennessee is coming off a 36-7 shellacking at #11 Missouri last Saturday in a game they closed as a 2.0-point favorite. Despite that defeat, Tennessee is still a very good 7-3 this season with their other losses coming at #6 Alabama 34-20 and were upset at Florida. Otherwise, the Volunteers are a perfect 4-0 SU&ATS at home when facing FBS opponents with an average victory margin of 28.8 points per game. Granted those 4 wins and covers didn’t come against any team currently ranked the Top 25, but it does speak to confidence playing at home and even more of a psychological boost when facing the 2-time defending national champion. The fact of the matter is that even if Georgia happens to lose this game, if they defeat Georgia Tech next week and Alabama in the SEC Championship game, they’ll in all probability be part of the 4-team College Football Playoffs. I wouldn’t be shocked to see an outright upset here, but I won’t be foolishly greedy and gladly take the points being afforded to me. Give me Tennessee plus points. |
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11-18-23 | Louisville v. Miami-FL +1 | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Miami Fla. 12:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Miami +1.0 This line makes no sense to me and when that occurs more times than not, I go against what seems to be the obvious choice. We have the #9 team in the country in Louisville at 9-1 as a pick versus an unranked Miami team that’s 6-4 that’s lost the last 2 and 4 of their previous 6 games. Additionally, Louisville game after Miami comes against in state bitter rival Kentucky. If it looks too good to be true pertaining to sports betting it usually is. This is a prime example of such. Give me Miami Fla. on the money line. |
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11-18-23 | SMU v. Memphis +9.5 | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show | |
SMU @ Memphis 12:00 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Memphis +9.5 Memphis enters this American Athletic Conference matchup on a 4-game win streak, and it’s improved their season record to 8-2. Conversely, SMU is coming off a SU&ATS 45-21 win over North Texas. SMU is also 8-2 but all 7 of their wins over FBS opponents this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record and have a combined record of 21-50 (.296). College Football home underdogs of between 2.5 to 14.0 Like Memphis that are coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like SMU who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 2018. The home underdogs also went 14-2 SU in those games. Give me Memphis plus points. |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens -3.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Ravens -3.5 The Ravens are coming off a home favorite 33-31 SU loss to Cleveland last Sunday. That dropped their season record to a still very good 7-3 (.700). The Ravens will be able to move the ball with a high degree of efficiency against a vulnerable Cincinnati defense. Cincinnati is coming off a 30-27 home upset loss to Houston in a game they allowed the Texans to rack up 544 yards of total offense. That marked the 4th time in 9 games this season that the Bengals defense surrendered 400 yards or more. As a matter of fact, the Bengals defense ranks 30th total yards allowed and also 30th at stopping the run. Baltimore leads the NFL in rushing offense while averaging 154.9 yards per game. Conversely, the Baltimore defense is #2 in yards allowed per game and they’re #1 at sacking the quarterback. Any regular season NFL favorite like Baltimore with a win percentage between .600 to .750 that’s coming off a home favorite SU loss, and they’re playing after Game 8, versus an opponent like Cincinnati that’s coming off a loss and has a win percentage of .181 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS since 2016. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a substantial margin of 21.9 points per game. Give me the Ravens minus points. |
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11-14-23 | Toledo v. Bowling Green +11 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Toledo @ Bowling Green 7:00 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Bowling Green +11.0 Toledo began their season with a narrow 2-point loss at Illinois, and since then has won 9 straight games. Bowling Green began the season 2-4 and then proceeded to win 4 in a row to get to their current 6-4 record. Additionally, 2 of their 4 losses came on the road against nationally ranked Liberty 34-24 and Michigan 31-6 who as of this writing are a combined 20-0. Any College Football home underdog of 13.0 or less like Bowling Green currently is that’s currently coming off 4 or more wins in a row, versus an opponent like Toledo who’s coming off a conference SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 2018. Those home underdogs were also 14-1 SU in those 15 games. Give me Bowling Green plus points. |
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11-13-23 | Broncos v. Bills -7 | 24-22 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Bills 8:15 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Bills -7.0 The Broncos are coming off last week’s 24-9 upset win as a 7.0-point home underdog over Kansas City. That victory improved their season record to 3-5 (.375). Since 2014, Denver is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in Monday night away games. The Broncos are also an abysmal 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 on the road when their point-spread was between -2.0 to +9.5 while losing by an average of 12.0 points per game. Buffalo is coming off a Sunday night 24-18 loss at Cincinnati in a game they also failed to cover as a 1.5-point underdog. Despite the Bills offense falling under heavy criticism, they’re still #7 in total yards, #7 in scoring, and #2 in 3rd down conversion rate. They’ll be facing a Broncos defense that’s dead last in the NFL when it comes to points and yards allowed per game. The Denver stop unit has especially struggled in non-division contests while allowing 36.2 points and 464.6 yards per game. The Bills struggles have come on the road where they’re 1-4. However, Buffalo is 4-0 at home with an average victory margin of 16.3 points per game and outgained their opponents by 79.0 yards per contest. Any NFL home favorite of 4.5 or greater like Buffalo that’s coming off an away underdog ATS loss, versus a non-division opponent like Denver with a win percentage of .333 or better who’s coming off a home underdog SU win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1998. The average victory margin came by a decisive 19.0 points per game. Give me the Bills minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Commanders +6 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
Commanders @ Seahawks 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Commanders +6.0 Seattle was hammered in last week’s 37-3 loss at Baltimore in a game the Ravens held a total yard advantage of 515-151. Since the 2021-2022 season, Seattle is 2-8 ATS as a home favorite of between 3.5 and 7.0. Furthermore, they lost 6 of those 10 games outright. Washington is coming off a confidence building 20-17 win at New England last Sunday in a game they closed as a 3.0-point underdog. The Commanders are now a perfect 4-0 ATS as an away underdog this season and won 3 of those contests SU. Washington’s 2nd year quarterback Sam Howell has been terrific in the last 2 games while going 68-97 (70.1%) passing which accounted for 696 yards. Since 2021-2022, Washington is 7-0-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in Games 10 through 13. Give me the Commanders plus the points as my Top Play of the Week. |
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11-12-23 | Texans +7 v. Bengals | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Texas @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 245-246 Play On: Texans +7.0 The Bengals are surging while having gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. However, this has a good possibility of being a flat spot for them on Sunday. They will be without starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and their #1 pass catcher Jamaar Chase is listed as questionable. Additionally, Cincinnati is coming off a 24-18 home win over Buffalo in front of a national television audience and up next is a showdown with AFC North Division leader this coming Thursday. Sandwiched in between is this low profile game against a 4-4 Houston team. Furthermore, despite their 5-3 record, Cincinnati has been outgained by an average of 71.7 yards per game. Houston’s rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud is coming off a massive performance in last Sunday’s 39-37 home win over Tampa Bay. Stroud has thrown 14 touchdown passes this season while being intercepted only once and has averaged 283.8 yards passing yards per game. Give me the Texans plus points. |
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11-12-23 | 49ers -3 v. Jaguars | 34-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
49ers @ Jaguars 1:00 PM ET Game# 247-248 Play On: 49ers -3.0 Talk about a fishy line. Jacksonville is a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5. Conversely, San Francisco is 0-3 SU&ATS during their previous 3. Yet, it’s the 49ers who come up favorite in this spot. They’re pleading with you to take the home underdog here. My answer is thank you for the offer but I’m not taking the bait. Here’s the other thing, although Jacksonville is 6-2, both losses took place at home versus Houston and Kansas City. Their lone home win came over the Colts 37-20 in a game they were outgained in total yards by a wide margin of 354-233. Give me the 49ers minus points. |
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11-12-23 | Saints v. Vikings +3 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show | |
Saints @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 249-250 Play On: Vikings +3.0 After starting the season 0-3, the Vikings have rebounded well and are now 5-4. That includes going 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 games. Throughout their previous 6 contests, the Minnesota defense has been superb while allowing only 18.0 points and 300.8 yards per game. New Orleans is a respectable 3-2 on the road thus far. However, all 3 of those wins have came over teams that currently have a win percentage of .500 or worse. As a matter of fact, this will be their first road game of the season versus a team that currently has a winning record. Give me the Vikings plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Iowa State v. BYU +8 | 45-13 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 1 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ BYU 10:15 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: BYU +8.0 Iowa State had their 3-game win streak halted last Saturday during a 28-21 loss to #17 Kansas. Following this game against 5-4 at BYU they’ll be hosting #7 Texas next. Needless to say this is a potential flat spot for the Cyclones. All 4 losses by BYU have come on the road. The Cougars are a perfect 4-0 at home including conference wins over Cincinnati and Texas Tech. This is good situation and spot to back the home underdog. Give me BYU plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Florida v. LSU -14.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show | |
Florida @ LSU 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: LSU -14.5 The most alarming statistic for Florida is the fact they’ve allowed 40.3 points and 482.3 yards per game over the last 3 contests. That highly problematic when facing the prospect of facing an explosive LSU offense that’s averaging 54.0 points scored and 566.3 yards gained per game while going 4-0 at home. Florida is a poor 1-3 on the road this year. LSU is 4-0 SU & 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 versus Florida. Give me LSU minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Utah +9 v. Washington | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show | |
Utah @ Washington 3:30 PM ET Game# 177-178 Play On: Utah +9.0 Do you want to know why Washington is 9-0 and is on the outside looking in when it comes to the College Football Playoff picture? Well I’m glad you asked. The Huskies last 5 wins have all come by 10 points or fewer. The Washington defense has allowed 33 points or greater and 499 yards or more during 3 of their previous 4 games. Conversely Utah is 7-2 with their only losses coming to #6 Oregon and #12 Oregon State. Utah has scored 34 points or great and gained 445 points or more in 3 of their last 4 contests. The Utes productive running game will be highly effective in this game and in turn control time of possession while limiting offensive possessions for thus high scoring Huskies. Give me Utah plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Oklahoma State v. Central Florida +2.5 | Top | 3-45 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
Oklahoma State @ UCF 3:30 PM ET Game# 141-142 Play On: UCF +2.5 Oklahoma State has been a resurgent team after a an uninspiring 2-2 start to the season. The Cowboys have gone a red-hot 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 games which included wins over nationally ranked teams Kansas, Kansas State, and Oklahoma. Yet, here they are as just a 2.5-point favorite over a UCF team that’s 4-5 and has been a huge disappointment considering their preseason expectations. If it looks to good to be true when pertaining to sports betting it usually is. College Football teams like UCF that are +3.0 to -3.0 that’s playing an opponent like Oklahoma State who’s coming off 4 or more ATS covers in a row, resulted in those teams going 35-13 ATS (72.9%) since 2019. Give me UCF plus points. |
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11-11-23 | Arizona -10 v. Colorado | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
Arizona @ Colorado 2:00 PM ET Game# 169-170 Play On: Arizona -10.0 After a promising 3-0 start that saw them ranked in the Top 25, Colorado has lost 5 of their last 6 and will be hard pressed to become bowl eligible. During this current 6-game funk, Colorado has allowed 33.9 points and 469.0 yards per contest. They will be play against a surging Arizona team that’s gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 while allowing 13.3 points and 304.0 yards per game. Their last 2 of those wins coming off quality wins over UCLA and Oregon State. These are 2 teams headed on opposite paths. Give me Arizona minus points. |
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11-11-23 | Texas Tech +4 v. Kansas | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Texas Tech @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On Texas Tech +4.0 Kansas is coming off back-to-back upset wins versus Oklahoma and at Iowa State. Now they find themselves as just a small home favorite versus a 4-5 Texas Tech team. Additionally, up next for the #17 Jayhawks is #7 Texas. This seems like a fishy line and a potential flat for Kansas. Speaking of Texas Tech, they’re coming off a 35-28 home win over TCU. The Red Raiders are 1-3 SU on the road but have played much better during those contests than that poor record indicates. During those 4 away contests they are a +0.8-point differential and +78.0 yard per game differential. Give me Texas Tech plus the points. |
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11-10-23 | North Texas v. SMU -17 | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
North Texas @ SMU 9:00 PM ET Game# 119-120 Play On: SMU -17.0 SMU has gone 4-0 SU&ATS during the previous 4 seasons versus North Texas and won by an average substantial margin of 28.3 points per game. The Mustangs are 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 contests with an average victory margin of 39.3 points per outing and outgained those opponents by an enormous 339.4 yards per game. Furthermore, SMU is 4-0 SU&ATS at home this season and won by a massive average margin of 42.7 points per game. SMU will be facing a 3-6 North Texas team which allows an average of 36.7 points and 469.0 yards per game. Any college football home favorite of between 10.0 and 31.5 like SMU with a win percentage of .777 or better, and they’re coming off 3 wins in a row in which they scored 36 points or greater on each occasion, versus an opponent like TCU with a win percentage of .200 or better that’s coming off 2 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those home favorites going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2002 and they won by an average of 32.8 points per contest. Give me SMU minus points. |
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11-09-23 | Panthers v. Bears -3 | 13-16 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
Panthers @ Bears 8:15 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: Bears -3.0 The Bears will stick to their offensive strength and that’s running the ball. Although the Bears are a poor 1-3 at home this season, they’ve averaged 157 yards rushing per contest and 4.7 yards per attempt. Conversely, Carolina is 0-4 SU&ATS on the road while losing by an average of 15.8 points per game and they surrendered 149 yards rushing per contest. Give me the Bears minus points. |
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11-07-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +7.5 | 20-10 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Ohio @ Buffalo 7:00 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Buffalo +7.5 Buffalo went an abysmal 0-4 in the non-conference portion of their schedule. However, since conference action began, they are a respectable 3-2 while only allowing 16.8 points and 285.8 yards per game in addition to forcing 13 turnovers. Ohio is 6-3 overall but just 3-2 in MAC action. The Bobcats have lost 2 of their last 3 and failed to cover on each occasion. Give me Buffalo plus points. |
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11-06-23 | Chargers -3 v. Jets | 27-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers @ Jets 8:15 PM ET Game# 475-476 Play On: Chargers -3.0 This line doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me and when that occurs, I predominately go against what appears to be the obvious choice. The Chargers are 3-4 and the Jets 4-3. New York has won 3 consecutive games. However, it’s the Chargers who are better than a field goal road favorite versus an opponent with a better record. The Chargers are coming off a 30-13 home win over Chicago in which they covered as a 9.5-point favorite. Any NFL away favorite of 3.5 or less with a losing record that’s coming off a home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 25.0 or less and scored 21 points or more, versus an opponent with a .400 or better win percentage, resulted in those away favorites like the Chargers going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 1984. Give me the Chargers minus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bills +2.5 v. Bengals | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
Buffalo @ Cincinnati 8:15 PM ET Game# 8:20 PM ET Play On: Buffalo +2.5 A lot of people have written off Buffalo but I’m not one of them. Granted they’ve looked anything like a serious Super Bowl contender during a listless 5-3 start to the season. Now they’re about to face a Cincinnati team that’s rounded into form over the last 3 games and very much appears like they’re going on another deep postseason run. However, why are they just a 2.5-point home favorite? This looks like a huge trap to take the small home favorite that’s on a red-hot roll right now. However. keep in mind that Buffalo hasn’t been an underdog very much in recent seasons but when that occurs, they’ve been money in the bank. Specifically speaking, the Bills are 6-0 ATS including 5-1 SU in their last 6 as a regular season underdog of 3.0 or less while averaging a massive 39.2 points scored per game. Their only SU loss in that sequence came when Kyler Murray hooked up with Deandre Hopkins on a miracle Hail Mary pass on the last playoff the game which enable Arizona to defeat Buffalo 34-32. Give me the Bills plus points as my NFL Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-23 | Rams +3 v. Packers | 3-20 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Rams @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 459-460 Play On: Rams +3.0 I don’t care if it’s Mathew Stafford or Brett Rypien at quarterback for the Rams. I’m fading the Packers either way. Packers quarterback Jordan Love is looking more and more like a genuine first round bust. The Packers are 0-4 SU&ATS in their last 4 contests. Furthermore, their previous 3 losses came versus Las Vegas, Denver, and Minnesota, none of which currently possess a winning record. The Rams are coming off back-to-back losses versus Pittsburgh and Dallas who have a combined 10-5 record. Any NFL road underdog of 3.5 or less like the Rams that’s coming off a SU loss who has a win percentage of .300 or better, versus an opponent like Green Bay who’s playing after Game 7 and has lost 4 or more games in a row with the last defeat coming by 10 points or more, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 SU&ATS since 1981. Those underdogs won all 15 of those contests SU and by an average of 8.5 points per game. Give me the Rams plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Bucs +3 v. Texans | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay @ Houston 1:00 PM ET Game# 461-462 Play On: Tampa Bay +3.0 Despite their uninspiring 3-4 record which includes a current 3-game losing streak, Tampa Bay is still very much a contender in a wide open NFC South race. The Bucs have been much better on the road than at home this season while going 2-1 SU&3-0 ATS during those contests. Houston is coming off a 15-13 road loss to then winless Carolina which dropped their season record to 3-4. Any NFL away underdog of 4.0 or less like Tampa Bay that has a win percentage of .400 to .490, versus an opponent like Houston that’s coming off a SU loss and they possess a win percentage of .400-.490, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-1 ATS (93.8%) since 2012. The away underdogs also won 14 of those 16 contests straight up. Give me Tampa Bay plus points. |
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11-05-23 | Commanders +3 v. Patriots | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Commanders @ Patriots 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +3.0 New England is 0-4 SU&ATS in non-division contests this season while losing by an average of 19.5 points per game. The Patriots are also a poor 1-3 SU&ATS at home and the only time they were a favorite in those 4 contests they failed miserable during a 34-0 blowout loss to New Orleans. New England has been anemic offensively in their dismal 2-6 start to the season while averaging a mere 14.8 points scored per game and 284.8 yards gained per contest. Washington is coming off a disheartening 38-31 home loss to the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles and pushed as a 7.0-point underdog. They outgained the Eagles in that contest by a wide margin of 472-374 and also squandered an early 14-3 lead. However, Washington is a more than respectable 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Commanders are also a profitable 3-1-1 ATS as an underdog. Give me the Commanders plus points. |
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11-04-23 | LSU +3.5 v. Alabama | 28-42 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
LSU @ Alabama 7:45 PM ET Game# 383-384 Play On: LSU +3.5 Alabama has won 6 straight games since being upset at home by Texas. Nonetheless, 2 of their last 3 wins came by 6 or less and the lone exception was a 34-20 win over Tennessee in which they trailed 20-7 at halftime. The Crimson Tide has scored 26 points or fewer in 5 of the last 7 games. That can be problematic when considering they’ll be facing a dynamic and explosive LSU offense that averages 47.4 points scored and 553.1 yards game per game. That includes 44.2 points scored and 554.6 yards gained per game while going 4-1 in SEC contests. Alabama hasn’t bee this low a home favorite since 9/22/2007 when they were -3.0 versus Georgia and lost 26-23. The current line speaks volumes to me, and the sportsbooks are begging you to take Alabama as a small home favorite. I’m not taking the bait. Give me LSU plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Washington v. USC +3 | 52-42 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
USC @ Washington 7:30 PM ET Game# 371-372 Play On: USC +3.0 USC barely escaped with a 50-49 win over California last Saturday. The trojans national championship aspirations ended after losing back-to-back game to Notre Dame and Utah. The Trojan offense led by star quarterback Caleb Williams is championship caliber, but their defense has been an enigma and a huge liability. However, USC would like nothing better than to hand Washington their first loss of the season and put a dent into their College Football Playoff hopes. They’ll certainly be motivated since they’re an underdog at home. The undefeated Huskies and star quarterback Michael Pennix are very good. However, they haven’t exactly been blowing away the competition of late. As a matter of fact, their last 4 wins have all come by 9 points or fewer. That includes the last 2 versus Arizona State (2-6) and Stanford (2-6). Give me USC plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas +3 v. Iowa State | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
Kansas @ Iowa State 7:00 PM ET Game# 379-380 Play On: Kansas +3.0 Everyone and their Uncle are banking on the fact that Kansas (6-2/.750) is going to in for an emotional letdown after upsetting undefeated Oklahoma at home last Saturday. On most occasions I would agree with that logic, but not in this instance. Yes, Iowa State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Nonetheless, those victories came over TCU, Cincinnati (2-6), and Baylor (2-5). This is also an Iowa State team that lost to the Ohio Bobcats earlier this season and was blown out by 50-20 against Oklahoma. Additionally, since 2021, Iowa State has gone 1-6 SU when facing fellow Big 12 Conference teams with a win percentage of .750 or better. Give me Kansas plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Penn State v. Maryland +9 | Top | 51-15 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
Penn State @ Maryland 3:30 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Maryland +9.0 #9 Penn State (7-1) struggled mightily is last week’s 33-24 home win over Indiana in a game they closed as a 31.0-point favorite. Granted they were coming off a deflating 20-12 loss at Ohio State the week before and were extremely flat as a result. However, a string case can be made for the Nittany Lions to be flat again on Saturday when factoring in that they’ll be hosting #2 Michigan 7 days later, and they’re facing a Maryland team which has lost 3 straight contests. Don’t sleep on Maryland because of their recent funk. The Terrapins are still 5-3 even with their recent struggles. They’ll be out to atone for 2 consecutive losses as a double-digit favorite against Northwestern and Illinois. Their other loss was a 37-17 defeat at #3 Ohio State in which the game was much closer than the final score indicates. The Terrapins trailed that contest 20-17 with less than 11 minutes to play before Ohio State finished the contest with 17 unanswered points. Give me Maryland plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Jacksonville State +15.5 v. South Carolina | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Jacksonville State @ South Carolina 12:00 PM ET Game# 331-332 Play On: Jacksonville State +15.5 This will be the largest crowd that Jacksonville State will play in front of all year. The Jaguars enter this matchup versus a team from the mighty SEC with a stellar 7-2 record and this game has far greater meaning to them as opposed to South Carolina. Afterall, the Gamecocks are taking a break from their hear of their SEC schedule to face an opponent who’s a first year FBS participant. Additionally, it’s not like the Gamecocks (2-6) carry a lot of momentum with them heading into this contest considering they’re currently on a 4-game losing streak. It’s also worth noting, Jacksonville State is at a +9 turnover differential this season while South Carolina is -6. Give me Jacksonville State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Kansas State +3.5 v. Texas | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Kansas State @ Texas 12:00 PM ET Game# 405-406 Play On: Kansas State +3.5 Considering Texas is without their starting quarterback Quinn Ewers, and how both teams have performed during recent game, I strongly believe the underdog is the better team at this juncture. To be clear, I didn’t say the more talented squad, but the better team. Kansas State has lost the last 6 versus Texas, but 5 of those 6 contests were decided by 7 points or fewer. Since Quinn Ewers went down with an injury, the Texas offense has put up pedestrian numbers of 362 and 354 total yards in those 2 games which is well below their season average of 454.4. Since being upset at Oklahoma State, #25 Kansas State has gone 3-0 SU&ATS and outscored their opponents (Houston, Texas Tech, TCU) by a cumulative score of 120-24. Give me Kansas State plus points. |
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11-04-23 | Arkansas v. Florida -3 | 39-36 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
Arkansas @ Florida 12:00 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Florida -3.0 The public has hammered the underdog Razorbacks in this contest to the point this line went from 5.5 to 3.5 over the last 24 hours. Granted. Arkansas has been a tough luck team this season when considering that 5 of their 6 losses have come by 7 points or fewer. Nonetheless, all 6 of those defeats have come over their previous 6 games. The Razorbacks have found ways to lose games they deserved to win on a couple of occasions. When teams are stuck in that mode for a prolonged period, they become mentally fragile. Furthermore, the Razorbacks offense has been anemic over their last 4 contests while averaging a mere 16.5 points scored and 227.5 yards gained per game. They’ll be facing a Florida Gators team that’s a perfect 4-0 at home this season with an average victory margin of 23.5 points per game and includes an upset win over #19 Tennessee. I’ll be in the minority with this pick, but that’s perfectly fine with me. Give me Florida minus points. |
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11-03-23 | Boston College +3 v. Syracuse | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show | |
Boston College @ Syracuse 7:30 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Boston College +3.0 Syracuse has been consistent with their recent trend under current head coach Dino Babers on getting off to fast starts while facing a soft schedule, and then tailing off once getting into the heart of ACC action. The Orange began the season 4-0 while facing opponents the likes of Colgate (2-5), Western Michigan (3-6), Purdue (2-6), and Army (2-6). Since that time, they’ve gone 0-4 SU&ATS while being outscored by 29.0 points and outgained by 298.8 yards per game. The low point may have come in last week’s 38-10 loss against an average at best Virginia Tech team where they were outgained in total yards by a decisive margin of 528-138. They’ve scored 14 points or fewer and amassed 286 yards or less of total offense in each of those 4 losses. Conversely, Boston College enters this week on a 4-game win streak and is just 1 victory shy of bowl eligibility. The Eagles have already far exceeded College Football so-called expert’s preseason predictions. The Eagles are coming off a 21-14 home win over Connecticut in a game they outgained the Huskies 433-222 and wasn’t as close as the final score indicates. Any College Football away team like Boston College that’s won 4 or more games in a row and their previous victory came by 9 points or fewer, versus an opponent like Syracuse who’s lost 4 or more consecutive games in a row, and their last defeat came by 6 points or more while also allowing 30 points or more, resulted in those away teams going 26-2 SU (92.3%) since 1986. The SU betting angle takes on added value since it backs the underdog in this matchup. Give me Boston College plus points. |
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11-02-23 | Titans +3 v. Steelers | 16-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
Titans @ Steelers 8:15 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Titans +3.0 Tennessee is coming off a much needed 28-23 win over Atlanta in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. 2023 first round draft choice quarterback Will Levis was brilliant in his starting debut while throwing for 4 touchdowns against 0 interceptions. Pittsburgh is coming off a 20-10 loss to Jacksonville in a game they closed as a 2.5-point home underdog. The Steelers have a deceiving 4-3 record. I say that because they’ve been outscored by 4.9 yards and outgained by 110.9 yards per game. Not exactly the type of numbers that’s conducive to a winning record. Their defense has been very good, but the offense has been a polar opposite and that’s atrocious. The Steelers have scored just 9 offensive touchdowns throughout their 7 games this season. Any NFL non-division away underdog of 3.0 or less like Tennessee that’s coming off a home underdog SU win in which they covered by 6.5-points or greater, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-0 ATS since 2019. Give me the Titans plus points. |
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10-29-23 | Bengals v. 49ers -5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
Bengals @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: 49ers -5.0 Cincinnati is coming off a home favorite ATS 17-13 win over Seattle. Nevertheless, that Bengals win was a bit deceiving since they were outgained in the contest by a wide margin of 169 yards. It was more a result of Seattle failing miserably to cash in on their scoring opportunities more than anything else. San Francisco started the season 5-0 and looked like the best team in the NFL while doing so. However, they’re coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses against Minnesota and Cleveland. NFL betting history has shown that teams like San Francisco in this exact situation have done very well. NFL home favorites of 3.0 or more that are coming off 2 straight away favorite SU losses and their facing an opponent like Cincinnati who’s coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0-1 ATS since 1980, and with an average victory margin of 14.5 points per game. |