Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 42 h 41 m | Show | |
Indianapolis @ Minnesota 1:00 PM ET Game# 307-308 Play On: Indianapolis +4.0 (5*) This line makes no sense to me when considering the disparity between these team’s records. Minnesota is 10-3 while the Colts come in at 4-8-1 and that includes losing 6 of its last 7 games. Additionally, Minnesota is 6-1 at home this season and Indianapolis is 2-4-1 on the road including a 54-19 loss at Dallas in their previous game. Yet, the Vikings are just a 4.0-point home favorite. However, despite their 10-3 record the Vikings have average 24.0 points scored and 24.1 points allowed per game. Yes, the Colts allowed 54 points to Dallas in their previous outing, but more had to do with them committing 5 turnovers than shoddy defensive play. As a matter fact, the Cowboys outgained the Colts by only 73 yards in that 35-point win. Minnesota is coming off a loss of their own by a score of 34-23 at Detroit. NFL non-division away underdogs like Indianapolis who are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they allowed 40 points or more, and they’re facing a team like Minnesota who is coming off a SU loss, resulted in those away underdogs going 22-0 ATS since 1983. What’s even more astonishing is those away underdogs also went an incredible 19-3 SU in those contests. The average line in those 22 games was 6.3. Give me Indianapolis plus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Seattle 4:25 PM ET Game# 121-122 Play On: Seattle -3.5 (5*) Carolina is coming off a 23-10 home win over a hapless Denver team which is now on current 0-4 and 1-8 losing runs. They were also the lowest scoring offensive team in the NFL. That won’t be the case this week as Seattle posses the #5 scoring offense in the NFL and they’ve averaged a lofty 28.6 points scored per game over their last 6 contests. Moreover, Carolina hasn’t won 2 consecutive games all season long. Additionally, the Seahawks are coming off last week’s 27-23 road win over the Rams which improved their season record to 7-5. They’re tied with the Giants for the final NFC Wildcard spot and hold the tiebreaker over New York because they already beat them earlier this season. With the Giants facing Philadelphia (11-1) this week and considering this is a very winnable game for the Seahawks, it bodes well for Seattle playing with a high degree of urgency and desperation. Give me Seattle minus the points. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs v. 49ers -3 | Top | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco 4:25 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: San Francisco -3.0 (-120) (10*) Forget about the San Francisco’s injury issues at quarterback. They will win this game by a comfortable margin with their stout defense and effectively running the ball on offense. The 49ers enter this week on a 5-games winning streak with all 5 wins coming by 6 points or more and 4 of those by 13 points or greater. Even further impressive is the fact that their defense has allowed 11.4 points per game during this current win streak. Speaking of the 49ers defense, they rank #1 in both points and yards allowed per game. San Francisco has held 8 of 12 opponents to less than 300 yards of total offense this season. On the other hand, Tampa Bay has scored 22 points or fewer in their last 8 and 10 of its previous 11 games. NFL home favorites of 4.5 or less like San Francisco that are playing before Game 15 and they’re coming off home wins in their last 2 games, and they’re not undefeated, versus teams like Tampa Bay coming off a win and they have a win percentage of between .384 and .727, resulted in those home favorites of 4.5 or less going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1983. The average margin of victory came by 13.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
Chiefs @ Bengals 4:25 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Bengals +2.5 (5*) Some will make be a big deal about the revenge factor after Cincinnati knocked of Kansas City twice last season. As a matter of fact, one of the Bengals wins occurred in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. I’ll take the opposite approach and say Cincinnati has the confidence it can beat arguably the most dominant team in the AFC over the past 4 seasons. The Bengals are 3-0 SU&ATS this season in non-division home games. They’re also 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 in that exact role dating back to last season. Cincinnati is currently riding a 3-game win streak with the last 2 of those victories. coming in away games. NFL regular season home underdogs of 3.0 or less that are coming off 3 or more wins in a row with the last 2 coming in away games, and they possess a win percentage of .562 or better, versus an opponent (Chiefs) with a winning record, resulted in those home underdogs of 3.0 or less going a perfect 12-0 SU&ATS. Give me the Bengals plus the small number. |
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12-04-22 | Dolphins v. 49ers -4 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
Dolphins @ 49ers 4:05 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: 49ers -4.0 (10*) Miami is extremely explosive offensively. Nonetheless, this will be that high scoring unit’s toughest task of the season up until now. The 49ers defense has allowed 19 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. They also yielded fewer than 300 yards on 8 separate occasions. Miami is currently on a 5-game win streak but all those beaten opponents currently have a losing record and a cumulative season record of 15-31-1 (.326). The Dolphins are 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 this season when facing teams that currently have a winning record. By the way, San Francisco has won its last 4 and outscored those opponents by an average of 16.0 points per game. Give me the 49ers minus the points. |
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12-04-22 | Jets +3 v. Vikings | 22-27 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Jets @ Vikings 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Jets +3.0 (5*) This is another line that jump right off the screen at me, and it hasn’t budged all week. The NFL North Division leading Vikings (9-2) as only a 3.0-point favorite against an upstart Jets team (7-4). Public perception will clearly lean toward the Vikings. However, public perception is wrong more times than right. NFL road teams in regular season action Games 12 through 17 who have a point-spread parameter of +3.0 to 2.5 (Jets) and are coming off a home win by 21 points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .538 or better, versus an opponent (Vikings) with a win percentage of .300 or better, resulted in those road teams going 8-0 SU&ATS since 2015. The average victory margin came by 8.8 points per game. It’s a rare but perfect NFL betting angle which makes sense as it applies and aligns to my opening line. |
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12-03-22 | Clemson -7.5 v. North Carolina | 39-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
Clemson vs. North Carolina 8:00 PM ET Game# 321-322 Play On: Clemson -7.5 (5*) North Carolina was 9-1 to start the season before losing their last 2 regular season games versus Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Despite their still stellar 9-3 record, the tar Heels defense isn’t championship caliber. That’s been a common theme during Mack Brown’s second tenure as the Tar Heels head coach. His teams post winning records that are more of a result of superb offensive play than its defensive prowess. The Tar Heels are a misleading 6-0 this season in games not played at Chapel Hill. Nevertheless, they were just a +3.3 point per game differential in those contests and their opponents average 35.0 points scored per occurrence. Furthermore, 5 of those 6 wins came by 3 points or fewer and the other being a 7-point victory over Georgia State. Clemson has gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 ACC Championship games and outscored their opponents by an average of 25.8 points per contest. The Tigers are coming off a 31-30 upset loss to South Carolina in their regular season finale. Since the start of the 2012 season, Clemson is 14-0 SU following a loss. Those results include 5-0 ATS as a favorite of 14.0 or less and with an average victory margin of 13.6 points per game. Simply put, Clemson hasn’t lost 2 straight games since 2011 and with them laying a single-digit number on Saturday it creates a strong betting value. Give me Clemson minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Purdue +17 v. Michigan | 22-43 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 39 m | Show | |
Purdue vs. Michigan 8:00 PM ET Game# 323-324 Play On: Purdue +17.0 (10*) Since 2017, Purdue has gone an extremely profitable 18-4 ATS (81.8%) as an underdog of 4.0 or more and they won 11 of those 22 contests straight up. By the way, 2017 is the year Jeff Brohm took over as their head coach. The Boilermakers are coming off a 30-16 win at Indiana in their regular season finale and covered as a 10.0-point favorite. That victory improved their season record to 8-4 (.666). Conversely, Michigan comes off a huge 45-23 upset win at bitter rival Ohio State and did so as a 9.0-point underdog to conclude their regular season slate with an undefeated 12-0 record. It must be noted that college football neutral site favorites of 10.0 or greater that are coming off an away underdog of 9.0 or greater SU upset win, resulted in those teams going 0-6 ATS since 2002. College Football conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 that are coming off a conference away favorite ATS win, and they possess a win percentage of .666 or better, versus an undefeated opponent (Michigan) that’s coming off an ATS win in which they scored 56 points or fewer, resulted in those conference underdogs of 10.0 to 20.0 going 14-0 ATS since 1980. Give me Purdue plus the points. |
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12-03-22 | LSU v. Georgia -17.5 | 30-50 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
LSU vs. Georgia 4:00 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: Georgia -17.5 (5*) Georgia (12-0) is a tremendous defensive team that has allowed 14 points or fewer in 8 of 12 games this season. The Bulldogs have also allowed 22 points or fewer in all 12 of their regular season games. Additionally, Georgia has allowed 22 points or fewer in 29 of its previous 30 games. The offense will certainly do their part, but defense will ultimately earn us a cover. Brian Kelly has done a superb job in his 1st year as head coach at LSU. His Tigers are 9-3 and find themselves in the SEC Championship Game versus the nation’s top-ranked team. LSU was a shiny 6-1 SU&ATS at home this season. However, in all other games not played in Baton Rouge they were 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS. That basically tells me they’ve played far beneath expectations in those contests. Give me Georgia minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Fresno State +3 v. Boise State | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
Fresno State @ Boise State 4:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Fresno State +3.0 (5*) These teams just played one another on October 18th and Boise State walked away with a 40-20 final score. However, the final score was very deceiving when considering that Fresno State had a total yards advantage of 443-233. Since that defeat, Fresno State has won 7 consecutive contests and won by a convincing average of 21.3 points per game. The Bulldogs rushed for a season high 316 yards in that loss and only threw the ball 18 times. This is also a Fresno State offense that’s amassed 313 or more passing yards in 4 of its last 5 games while also posting a turnover differential of +8 during that stretch. Give me Fresno State plus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy -8 | 26-45 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ Troy 3:30 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Troy -8.0 (5*) Coastal Carolina is coming off a 47-7 loss at James Madison in their regular season finale. That dropped their season record to 9-2 (.818). The Chanticleers have been without starting senior quarterback Grayson McCall for the last 2 games and he’ll be sidelined for this Sun Belt Conference Championship Game. Without McCall, the Chanticleers have averaged just 16.5 point scored and 276.5 yards gained per game. Those offensive numbers are significantly below their season averages. Troy started the season 1-2 and since that time have reeled off 9 consecutive wins in a row to close out regular season play. Not only have they won 9 straight, but they also went an extremely profitable 7-2 ATS over that stretch. Troy will be playing with plenty of revenge after losing the last 3 versus Coastal Carolina. All those defeats came by 7 points or fewer. College Football conference home favorites of 16.5 or less with a win percentage of .800 or better who are playing after Game 3, and they’re coming off a road win by 14 points or more, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those conference home favorites going 17-3 ATS (85%) since 2018. Those home favorites also won all 20 of those contests SU and by an average of 15.8 points per game. Give me Troy minus the points. |
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12-03-22 | Toledo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
Toledo vs. Ohio 12:00 PM ET Game# 309-310 Play On: Ohio +3.0 (10*) These teams finished on opposite paths to close regular season action. Toledo has gone an uninspiring 2-3 SU and abysmal 0-5 ATS throughout their previous 5 games played. Ohio started their MAC schedule with a loss at Kent State. Since that time, they’ve gone 7-0 SU&ATS in their last 8 and with a substantial average victory margin of 17.4 points per game. Furthermore, over their previous 3 games, Ohio has averaged 35.7 points scored per contest while also owning an average time of possession of 38:06 per game. Which simply means, the Bobcats defense will be fresh and hard to score against considering how their offense has dominated time of possession. Give me Ohio plus the points as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. |
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12-02-22 | North Texas v. UTSA -8.5 | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show | |
North Texas @ UTSA 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: UTSA -8.5 (5*) UTSA started the season 1-2 with losses coming to Houston by 2 and at Texas 41-20. Since that time, they’ve won 9 straight including going 8-0 in Conference USA action. UTSA defeated North Texas 31-27 at home earlier this season but failed to cover as a 10.0-point favorite. However, looking inside the numbers they outgained North Texas (7-5) in that contest by a wide margin of 496-347 and on most occasions that would be good enough for at double-digit win at the very least. The Mean Green have also lost on the road 3 other times by 31 at UNLV, by 20 at UAB, and by 10 at Memphis. On those occasions they allowed an average of 47.7 points and 471.7 yards per game. North Texas has allowed 496 yards or more in 5 of 12 games this season. That’s hardly championship material defensive play. They will be tasked with stopping a UTSA offense that’s averaged 38.4 points and 480.5 yards per game in Conference USA action. Give me UTSA minus the points. |
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11-28-22 | Steelers v. Colts -2 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis 8:15 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Indianapolis -2.0 (5*) Pittsburgh is coming off a 37-30 division home loss to Cincinnati in their previous game. That defeat dropped the Steelers season record to 3-7 (.300). Any NFL team (Colts) that’s +2.5 to -2.5, versus an opponent (Steelers) with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a division loss by 7 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Indianapolis going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory came by 7.8 points per game. Give me Indianapolis minus the small number. |
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11-27-22 | Rams v. Chiefs -15 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Rams @ Chiefs 4:25 PM ET Game# 269-270 Play On: Chiefs 15.0 (5*) The Rams are reeling right now. They’ll be without their starting quarterback Mathew Stafford and all-pro wide receiver Cooper Kupp who will be sidelined by injuries. Los Angeles limps into this contest on a 4-game losing streak in which they were 0-3-1 ATS as well. The Chiefs offense is peaking right now. They have accounted for 319 yards or more passing in each of their previous 5 games. Kansas City’s offense has also amassed 486 yards or more of total offense in each of their previous 3 games. NFL home favorites of 10.5 or more with a winning record, versus teams with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that enter a contest on a on 2 or more game losing streak, resulted in those double-digit home favorites going 20-0 ATS since 2013. The average margin of victory came by an enormous 24.0 points per game. Give me the Chiefs minus the points. |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers -9 | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Saints @ 49ers 4:25 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: 49ers -9.0 (5*) New Orleans is coming off a 27-20 home win over banged up and struggling Rams team. However, the Saints have failed to win 2 games in a row all season and are 0-3 SU&ATS following a victory. New Orleans is also 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away games. San Francisco is coming off a 38-10 blowout win over Arizona and has the look of a team that’s primed for an extremely strong finish to their regular season slate. The 49ers defense has been tremendous in 9 of their 10 games played with the only exception coming against Kansas City who is arguably the NFL’s best offensive team. As a matter of fact, the 49ers are #1 in total defense while allowing a mere 283.9 yards per game, #3 in scoring defense at 17.3 points per contest, and has amassed the 4th most sacks at 32. |
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11-27-22 | Bengals v. Titans +1.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show |
Bengals @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Tennessee +1.5 (10*) Under the guidance of head coach Mike Vrabel, and since the start of last season, Tennessee has gone 8-0 SU&ATS as regular season underdog of 1.5 to 6.5. As a matter of fact, since the beginning of the 2020 season, the Titans are 11-1 SU&ATS in that identical role under Vrabel. Lastly, since the start of last season, the Titans are 4-0 SU&ATS as a home underdog. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State +3 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
Oregon @ Oregon State 3:30 PM ET Game# 125-126 Play On: Oregon State +3.0 (5*) You may be surprised to know that since the start of last season, Oregon State is 10-1 SU and 11-0 ATS at home versus FBS teams. The Beavers have won 5 of their last 6 overall with their only loss coming by 3 at Washington (9-2). Furthermore, each of the Beavers previous 4 wins have come by 14-points or greater, and their defense has allowed 10 points or fewer and 290 yards or less during 3 of its last 4 contests. This isn’t so much about why to fade Oregon and more aligned with my betting value concepts. Give me Oregon State plus the points. |
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11-26-22 | Louisville +3 v. Kentucky | 13-26 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 30 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Kentucky 3:00 PM ET Game# 159-160 Play On: Louisville +3.0 (5*) College Football away teams (Louisville) with a winning record, and they’re coming off a conference SU win by 30 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Kentucky) with a win percentage of .510 to .600 who’s coming off a SU loss in which they covered as an underdog, resulted in those away teams going 24-10 SU (70.6%) and 28-6 ATS (82.4%) since 1992. Give me Louisville plus the small number. |
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11-26-22 | Akron v. Northern Illinois -10 | 44-12 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 2 m | Show | |
Akron @ Northern Illinois 1:30 PM ET Game# 183-184 Play On: Northern Illinois -10.0 (5*) College Football home favorites of 6.5 to 14.0 (Northern Illinois) that are coming off a home SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 35.0 points or less, versus teams like Akron who have a win percentage of .250 to .400 and coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 18-2 ATS (90%) since 1986. The home favorites won all 20 of those games straight up and by an average of 19.7 points per contest. Give me Northern Illinois minus the points. |
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11-26-22 | Coastal Carolina v. James Madison -14 | 7-47 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
Coastal Carolina @ James Madison 12:00 PM ET Game# 175-176 Play On: James Madison -14.0 (5*) I’m aware of the fact that Coastal Carolina star quarterback was lost to a season ending injury. However, this is still a Coastal Carolina team that’s ranked #23 in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings with an outstanding 9-1 record. Yet, here they are as a 2-touchdown underdog versus an unranked conference opponent with a 7-3 record. Coastal is the sucker play of the week. Give me James Madison minus the points. |
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11-25-22 | Nebraska v. Iowa -10.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
Nebraska @ Iowa 4:00 PM ET Game# 131-132 Play On: Iowa -10.5 (10*) Nebraska is 0-5 in their last 5 games and scored 14 or less on 4 of those occasions. Iowa is a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 and allowed 13 points or less in all 4 of those games while also recording a turnover differential of +7. As a matter of fact, the Hawkeyes have allowed 13 points or fewer in 9 of 11 games this season. Iowa has defeated Nebraska 7 straight times. College Football conference home favorites of 10.5 to 17.5 that are coming off a conference win by 48 points or fewer, versus an opponent (Nebraska) coming off a loss by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those conference home favorites withing the above stated point-spread going 19-1 ATS (95%) since 2006. Give me Iowa minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
Game# 107-108 Play On: Dallas -10.0 (10*) Both teams are 7-3 but that’s where the similarity ends. Dallas is a legitimate contender to reach the Super Bowl and is getting better each week as the season has progressed. The Giants have been a nice story as they’ve vastly overachieved and the statistical numbers and analytic convincingly support those statements. Dallas is coming off a 40-3 win at Minnesota (8-2). While the Giants come off a home favorite SU loss to Detroit (4-6). NFL home favorites of 6.5 to 12 after Game 4 and are coming off an away win by 23 or more in which it scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponent (Giants) who is coming off a home favorite SU loss, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS since 1990. The average victory margin came by 22.0 points per game. |
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11-20-22 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
Kansas City @ LA Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Chargers +5.5 (5*) Kansas City has ruled the roost in the AFC West for several seasons. Although, the Chargers have enjoyed more success than most against them recently. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Kansas City. They were also 2-3 SU in those contests and their 3 losses came by just a combined 12 points. Los Angeles should also receive a huge boost with the return of starting wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams from injuries. The Chargers offense takes on a whole other level when both players have been healthy and on the field at the same time. If the Chargers have any hope of realistically winning the AFC West Division, then this is a must-win game. At the very worse this goes right down to the wire which favors underdogs of better than a field goal. Personally, I believe the Chargers are full capable of pulling off the upset in this spot. Nevertheless, I won’t be greedy and take the points. Give me the LA Chargers plus the points. |
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11-20-22 | Panthers v. Ravens -12.5 | 3-13 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Baltimore 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Baltimore -12.5 (5*) Carolina is coming off a 25-15 home underdog SU win over Atlanta. NFL betting historu throughout the past 29 season has shown that double-digit road underdogs coming off a home underdog SU win don’t fare well at all in the following game. Any NFL home favorite of 11.5 to 16.0 (Baltimore) that’s playing after Game 2, versus an opponent (Carolina) coming off a home underdog upset win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter going 26-2 ATS (92.8%) since 1994. The home teams also won all 28 of those games SU and by an enormous average of 23.4 points per game. Give me Baltimore minus the double-digit number. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons -2.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game# 465-466 Play On: Atlanta -2.5 (5*) Atlanta is 3-2 at home this season and their 2 losses came by only a combined 4 points. Although the Falcons are an uninspiring 4-6 this season, they still only trail 1st place Tampa Bay by 1.0-game in the NFC South standing. The Falcons enter Sunday on it’s 2nd 2-game losing streak of the season. The last time that occurred, they followed it up with an impressive 27-23 win at Seattle (6-4) who currently is the NFC West Division leader. By the way, Chicago is 5-15 SU and 6-14 ATS in their last 20 away games. Give me Atlanta minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Western Kentucky +5.5 v. Auburn | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky @ Auburn 4:00 PM ET Game# 365-366 Play On: Western Kentucky +5.5 This comes down to some fundamental college football handicapping principles. Auburn has endured a season to forget thus far and has lost 5 of its last 6 games. During their 3 wins versus FBS opponents this season they outscored their opponents by only a combined 14 points. Here’s the topper, up next for Auburn is a bitter rivalry game with Alabama. This is a text book flat spot for an already struggling Tigers team. Western Kentucky has gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in road games and won 3 of those contests straight up. Their only 2 SU losses came by exactly 3 points at Indiana and at UTSA. During those 5 away contests, the Hilltoppers averaged 40.2 points scored and 494.6 yards per game. Give me Western Kentucky plus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Texas -9 v. Kansas | 55-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Texas @ Kansas 3:30 PM ET Game# 363-364 Play On: Texas -9.0 (5*) Any conference away favorite of 4.5 to 10.0 with a win percentage of .44 or better, and they’re coming off a game in which they scored and allowed 17 points or fewer, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .285 or better, resulted in those away favorites going 28-4 ATS (87.5%) since 2009. Give me Texas minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Duke v. Pittsburgh -7 | 26-28 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
Duke @ Pittsburgh 12:00 PM ET Game# 333-334 Play On: Pittsburgh -7.0 (5*) College Football home favorites of 3.0 to 12.0 that are coming off a road win by 10 points or more, and have a win percentage of .600 or better, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .700 or better coming off 3 consecutive wins with all versus conference opponents, resulted in those home favorites going 41-9 (82%) ATS since 1996. Give me Pittsburgh minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Northwestern v. Purdue -17 | 9-17 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 40 m | Show | |
Northwestern @ Purdue 12:00 PM ET Game# 345-346 Play On: Purdue -17.0 (5*) College Football favorites of 13.0 to 20.0 with a winning record, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .250 or worse and is coming off 7 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those favorites going 19-0 ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by a substantial average of 29.8 points per game. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Connecticut @ Army 12:00 PM ET Game# 351-352 Play On: Army -10.0 (5*) File this one in the just doesn’t make sense category. We have a UConn football program that’s been revived to relevance under head coach Jim Mora Jr. The Huskies are bowl eligible with a 6-5 record and are about to an Army team that’s an awful 1-6 this season versus FBS opponents. Yet, Army is a double-digit favorite over the upstart Huskies. Can you say contrarian pick? I certainly can just out of a matter of principle. Give me Army minus the points. |
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11-18-22 | San Diego State -14 v. New Mexico | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
San Diego State @ New Mexico 9:45 PM ET Game# 317-318 Play On: San Diego State -14.0 (5*) San Diego State is 6-4 (.600) and is facing a New Mexico team who’s 2-8 (.200). Additionally, the Lobos have lost 7 consecutive games in a row heading into tonight, and they failed to cover on 6 of those occasions. This sets up an extremely profitable college football betting angle listed below. During this 7-game New Mexico losing streak, they were outscored by an average of 22.4 points per game. San Diego State has won 8 straight over New Mexico. College Football away favorites of 13.0 to 21.5 with a winning record, versus opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’re coming off 6 or more consecutive losses, resulted in those road favorites going 23-4 ATS (85.2%) since 2013. Give me San Diego State minus the points. |
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11-17-22 | Titans v. Packers -3 | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Green Bay 8:15 PM ET Game# 311-312 Play On: Green Bay -3.0 (5*) You may be wondering how 6-3 (.666) Tennessee is an underdog versus a Packers team with an uninspiring 4-6 (.400) record. Well, look inside the numbers and you’ll find that Green Bay despite their losing record has outgained their opponents by an average of 32.0 yards per game. Conversely, Tennessee is somehow 3 games above .500 despite being outgained 76.0 yards per game. The Titans also average a paltry 281.7 yards of total offense per game on the season. We must also keep in mind, that Green Bay is 24-3 in their last 27 home games and that includes 14-0 if after Game 6. The Packers are averaging an impressive 35:17 in time of possession in their 4 home games this season. The Packers are coming off a momentum building 31-28 home overtime win over Dallas in a game they overcame a 14-point 4th quarter deficit. NFL favorites of 9.5 or less that are coming off a SU&ATS win in which they covered by 4.0-points or more, and they possess a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .428 or better, resulted in those favorites going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2017. The average margin of victory in those 14 contests came by an average of 13.1 points per game. Give me Green Bay minus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Cardinals +3 v. Rams | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
Arizona @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Arizona +3.0 (5*) This will be a meeting between teams that have played well below expectations thus far. The defending world champion Rams have scored 14 points or fewer in 5 of 8 games this season. Conversely, although Arizona hasn’t exactly accumulated an enormous number of total yards during its past 3 game, they have been extremely opportunistic. Case in point, during that previously mentioned 3- game stretch, Arizona has an excellent 1 point scored per every 10.8 yards gained ratio. It’s also worth noting, that since the start of last season, Arizona is a perfect 7-0 ATS versus opponents that average forcing 1.0 or less turnover per game. The Rams have forced just 8 turnovers in 8 games and 7 of those takeaways occurred in the first 2 weeks of the season. Give me Arizona plus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys v. Packers +4.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show | |
Dallas @ Green Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Green Bay +4.5 (5*) Dallas looks like the sucker bet of the week. The Cowboys are coming off a bye week and their last game resulted in an impressive 49-29 home win over Chicago. On the flip side to this equation is a Green Bay team which has lost 5 straight and has looked pathetic offensively while doing so. However, only 1 of those 5 losses occurred at home. The fact remains, the Packers still possess an extremely strong home field, and couple that with being an underdog, equals betting value. How strong is their home field advantage? I’m glad you asked, Green Bay has gone 23-3 (.885) in their last 26 regular season home games. I’m taking the Lambeau Leap! Give me the Packers plus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Colts v. Raiders -4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
Indianapolis @ Las Vegas 4:05 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Las Vegas -4.5 (5*) The Raiders are in a rare situation in which they’re coming off away favorite SU losses in each of their previous 2 games. NFL betting history on home favorites within the current point-spread parameter have done have never failed to cover in that rarified air. That’s been especially the case of those games took place in the 2nd half of the season. Furthermore, they’ll be facing a Colts team that’s gone 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and scored a pathetic 9.7 points per game. NFL home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 like Las Vegas that are coming off back-to-back away favorite SU losses, and they’re playing after Game 8, resulted in those favorites within those point-spread parameters going 11-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The average margin of victory 11 contests came by a convincing 16.2 points per game. Give me Las Vegas minus the points. |
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11-13-22 | Browns +4 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 6 m | Show |
Browns @ Dolphins 1:00 PM ET Game# 251-252 Play On: Browns +4.0 (10*) Miami is currently on a 3-game win streak. However, those 3 victories came against Pittsburgh (2-6), Detroit (2-6), and Chicago (3-6) who have a combined season record of 7-18 (.280). Furthermore, all 3 of those wins came by 6 points or fewer. During their previous game which resulted in a 35-32 win at Chicago, they allowed the Bears to rush for 252 yards and an alarmingly high average of 6.3 yards per attempt. Miami will be facing Cleveland’s #3 rushing offense in the NFL that averages 164.6 yards per game on the ground and 5.0 yards per attempt. The only teams that rank higher than Cleveland in that department are the Bears and Ravens, and both have extremely mobile quarterbacks (Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) who have combined to rush for 1237 yards thus far this season. So, we can make a strong case that the Dolphins defense will be facing the best conventional rushing attack in the NFL. Cleveland is just 3-5 this season. However, 4 of their 5 losses came by just a combined 9 points. With a little bit of luck, they very easily could be 7-1. My point being, the Browns are a much better team than their record indicates. They’ll also enter this contest off a momentum building 32-13 home win over the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals and did so as a 3.0-point home underdog. Additionally, the Browns are coming off their bye week while Miami played last Sunday. The Browns will be able to run the ball with a high degree of success and in turn dominate time of possession. Hence, limiting an explosive Dolphins offense in terms of number of possessions. By the way, Cleveland has gone 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5 or greater and won 3 of those 7 contests straight up. Their 4 SU losses in that situation all came by 5 points or fewer. Give me the Browns plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-13-22 | Seahawks +3 v. Bucs | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 36 m | Show | |
Seattle @ Tampa Bay 9:30 AM ET Game# 241-242 Play On: Seattle +3.0 (5*) Seattle is coming off a 31-21 win over Arizona. The Seahawks have now gone a red-hot 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 with 3 of those coming as an underdog. Conversely, Tampa Bay is coming off a 20-17 home win over the Rams. Prior to that victory, the Bucs were 0-3 SU&ATS in their previous 3 and 1-5 SU&ATS over its last 6. What was perceived to be a potent Tampa Bay offense before the season began has fizzled to the tune of scoring 22 points or fewer in 8 of 9 games. NFL teams like Seattle that are coming off a division SU win by 8 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tampa Bay) with a win percentage of .888 or less and coming off a home win by 3 points or fewer, resulted in those teams like Seattle going 31-0 SU since 1993. If those teams were an underdog in those contests, they were 4-0 SU&ATS. The average point-spread in those 4 contests was 4.3 and the margin of victory came by a decisive 14.7 points per game. Give me Seattle plus the points. |
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11-12-22 | TCU v. Texas -7 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 2 m | Show |
TCU @ Texas 7:30 PM ET Game# 199-200 Play On: Texas -7.0 (10*) I have preached to whomever will listen, “think like an oddsmaker”. By doing so, you will have a huge edge when compared with many sports bettors in terms of your ability to pick winners. If the season were to end today, the unbeaten 9-0 TCU Horned Frogs would be the #4 seed in the College Football Playoffs. Yet, here they are as a sizable underdog versus a Texas team which enters this matchup with just a 6-3 record. It’s worth noting, despite their 9-0 record, TCU has won 6 of its last 7 by 10 points or fewer. The sportsbooks thrive off bettors who make which are perceived to be obvious picks, and they will again after this contest goes final as well. College Football conference home favorites of between 2.5 to 10.0 (Texas) who have a win percentage of .875 or less, facing an undefeated team (TCU) that’s playing after Game 7 and they’re coming off a SU win by 12 points or less, resulted in those home favorites going 13-0-1 ATS and 14-0 SU since 1983. The average victory margin during those 14 contests came by 15.6 points per contest. Give me Texas minus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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11-12-22 | Alabama -11.5 v. Ole Miss | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
Alabama @ Ole Miss 3:30 PM ET Game# 205-206 Play On: Alabama -12.0 (5*) Alabama is 7-2 and coming off an upset loss at Tennessee in a game they closed as a 13.0-point favorite. Yet, here they are as a double-digit road favorite 7 days later versus #11 Ole Miss (8-1) with a lot to play for with regards to College Football Playoff aspirations. We need to think like an oddsmaker in this spot and go against public perception. Besides, since 2001, College Football away double-digit favorites that are coming off an away double-digit favorite upset loss, resulted in those teams going 8-1 ATS and 9-0. The average margin of victory in those contests came by 26.7 points per game. Roll Tide Roll! Give me Alabama minus the points. |
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11-12-22 | Northwestern v. Minnesota -17 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
Northwestern @ Minnesota 3:30 PM ET Game# 171-172 Play On: Minnesota -17.0 (5*) Northwestern has been offensively anemic this season while scoring just 16.7 points per games. That ranks #126 out of 131 teams playing Division 1 football. Conversely, Minnesota is #4 nationally in scoring defense and allows only 14.2 points per game. The Golden Gophers are also #16 nationally in rushing offense while Northwestern is an abysmal #112 defending the run. Not exactly an ideal matchup for a mightily struggling Northwestern team. After winning their season opener versus Nebraska, the Northwestern Wildcats have lost 8 consecutive games. Minnesota is coming off back-to-back wins which has improved their season record to 6-3 (.667). This sets up an extremely profitable College Football betting angle displayed below. College Football favorites of 13.5 to 19.5-points with a winning record, facing opponents with a win percentage of .250 or worse and they’ve lost 6 or more consecutive games, resulted in those favorites going 26-4 ATS (86.6%) since 2013. The favorites were also a perfect 30-0 SU and won by an average of 238.1 points per game. Give me Minnesota minus the points. |
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11-08-22 | Ball State v. Toledo -11 | 21-28 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
Ball State @ Toledo 8:00 PMET Game# 105-106 Play On: Toledo -11.0 (5*) Toledo is coming off a 27-24 road win at Eastern Michigan. Ball State is coming off a 27-20 win at Kent State in a game they closed as a +6.5 underdog. This sets up an exceptional College Football betting angle displayed below. College Football home favorites of 9.5 to 23.5 (Toledo) that aren’t undefeated and they’re coming off a road win, versus an opponent (Ball State) with a win percentage of .636 or less who is coming off a conference win as an underdog of 6.0 or greater, resulted in those home favorites going 25-2 ATS (92.5%) since 2005. |
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11-06-22 | Rams v. Bucs -2.5 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show | |
LA Rams @ Tampa Bay 4:25 PM ET Game# 469-470 Play On: Tampa Bay -2.5 (5*) This is a battle of 2 NFC teams who are off to extremely disappointing starts to the season. Keep in mind, these teams are the last 2 Super Bowl winners. The good news, barring a push, 1 of these teams will get an ATS cover. The Rams are coming off a last Sunday’s 31-14 loss to their bitter rival San Francisco 49ers which dropped their season record to 3-4 (.428). The Rams offense has been ineffective over its last 4 contests while averaging only 14.3 points scored and 290.1 yards gained per game. Tampa Bay has gone a shocking 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 and 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS in their previous 6. They enter this week with a vastly underachieving 3-5 record. However, Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay offense have still generated an impressive 306.8 yards per game passing throughout their previous 5 contests. The Buccaneers will also be out to revenge a 30-27 home loss to the Rams in the NFC Divisional Round this past January. NFL favorites playing after Game 7, and they’re facing an opponent (Rams) with a win percentage of .400 to .490 that’s coming off a SU favorite loss by 10 points or more, resulted in those favorites going 17-1 SU&ATS (94.4%) since 2013. Give me Tampa Bay minus the points. |
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11-06-22 | Vikings v. Commanders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
Minnesota @ Washington 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Washington +3.0 (5*) Minnesota is coming off last Sunday’s 34-26 home win over Arizona. Washington is 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3 which includes last week’s upset win as an underdog at Indianapolis. NFL home underdogs of 3.5 or less (Washington) playing after Game 6 who have gone 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3, and their previous win came as an underdog, and they’re facing an opponent (Minnesota) coming off a SU win, resulted in this home underdogs going 16-0 ATS since 1981. The underdogs also went 15-1 SU in those contests. Give me Washington plus the points. |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 24 h 54 m | Show | |
LA Chargers @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game#461-462 Play On: LA Chargers -3.0 (5*) The Atlanta Falcons enter Week 9 of the season sitting atop the NFC South standings with a 4-3 record. Yet, they’re a home underdog against a Chargers team which has an identical 4-3 record. The Chargers will be able to move the ball through the air with ease in this matchup. The Chargers are #4 in pass offense through 8 weeks while averaging 279.4 yards per game. Conversely, Atlanta is dead last in the NFL when it comes to pass defense while allowing an alarmingly high 306.9 yards per game. The Chargers are coming off a 37-23 loss to Seattle as a 4.5-point home favorite. NFL away favorites of 7.0 or less (Chargers) coming off a SU favorite upset loss in which they allowed 35 points or greater, resulted in those road favorites going 20-1 ATS and 21-0 SU since 2015. The average victory margin in those 21 contests came by a decisive 13.6 points per game. Give me the Chargers minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt +6.5 | 38-27 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
South Carolina @ Vanderbilt 7:30 PM ET Game# 395-396 Play On: Vanderbilt +6.5 (5*) South Carolina cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season 2 weeks ago. However, it was short lived after being knocked off by Missouri 23-10 as a 3.5-point home favorite. Now they enter this matchup against lowly Vanderbilt as just a touchdown road favorite. The Vanderbilt Commodores have lost 4 straight since opening the season 3-1. However, 3 of those 4 losses came at the hands of #6 Alabama, #3 Georgia, and #11 Ole Miss. Their other loss came at Missouri 17-14 in a game they easily covered as a 14.0-point road underdog. This goes right down to the wire. Give me Vanderbilt plus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Auburn v. Mississippi State -12.5 | 33-39 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Mississippi State 7:30 PM ET Game# 397-398 Play On: Mississippi State -12.5 (5*) Since starting the season 2-0, Auburn has lost 5 of their last 6, and quite frankly were extremely lucky in the lone win in that sequence when Missouri handed them a 17-4 victory in overtime. The Tigers missed a chip shot 22-yard field goal on the final play of regulation time, and then fumbled at the Auburn 1 in overtime which would have given them the win. All the negativity surrounding the football program and its obvious lack of success resulted in head coach Brian Harsin being fired this past Sunday. Mississippi State has struggled in SEC away games which is evidenced by an 0-3 SU&ATS record in those contests. However, the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 at home, and each of those victories came by 18 points or greater. They’ve also scored 40 points or more in all 4 at home. On the other hand, Auburn has scored 24 points or fewer in 6 of 7 games versus FBS opponents. Auburn has also allowed 41 points or more in each of their previous 3 games. Give me Mississippi State minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Clemson v. Notre Dame +4 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 35 m | Show | |
Clemson @ Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: Notre Dame +4.0 (5*) Unlike other past Clemson teams that have contended for a national title, this 8-0 Tigers team has managed to escape with a trio of 1 score wins, and it includes each of their previous 2 games played. Those last 2 wins each came by exactly 6 points over Syracuse and Florida State. They also beat Wake Forest in overtime earlier this season. Notre Dame ran the ball down Syracuse’s throat last week while amassing 246 yards rushing and average over 5 yards per running attempt. Florida State showed a few weeks back that Clemson can be run on. The Seminoles had 206 yards rushing in that contest while also averaging a robust 6.1 yards per attempt. The strength of this Notre Dame team is running the ball behind an outstanding offensive line. This will be just the 11th time since 2008 that Notre Dame will be a home underdog. They went 7-3 ATS and 6-4 in their previous 11 in that role. Furthermore, if the Irish didn’t enter those games undefeated, they were a perfect 3-0 SU&ATS. The Irish started the season 2-0, but they’ve rebounded to win 5 of their last 6. Give me Notre Dame plus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Troy -3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show | |
Troy @ UL-Lafayette 5:00 PM ET Game# 391-392 Play On: Troy -3.5 (5*) Troy is coming off a Sun Belt Conference 10-6 win at South Alabama in their previous game. That victory was the 5th in a row for the Trojans and improved their season record to 6-2. Their only 2 losses came at nationally ranked Ole Miss 28-10 and at Appalachian State 32-28 when they allowed a miracle Hail Mary touchdown pass on the last play of the game. It’s been a to0ugh transition for UL-Lafayette in the first year since former head coach Billy Napier took the Florida job. They Rajun Cajuns are just 3-4 this season versus FBS teams. College Football away favorites of between 3.5 and 10.0 with a win percentage of .428 or better (Troy) who scored and allowed 17 points or fewer in their previous game, versus an opponent (UL-Lafayette) coming off a loss by 3 points or more, resulted in those road favorites going an unbeaten 8-0 ATS since 2018. It is a short sample size, but those 8 road favorites of 3.5 to 10.0 won those contests by an average of 32.1 points per game. This is a strong betting situation for the road favorite. Give me Troy minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -8 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ Georgia 3:30 PM ET Game# 399-400 Play On: Georgia -8.0 (5*) Here’s the thing, Georgia remains #1 and Tennessee #2 in the AP Poll. However, the first College Football Playoff Rankings came out this week and had Tennessee #1 and Georgia #3. As if the Bulldogs needed any more incentive while playing at home. I look for the defending national champion Georgia Bulldogs to win and easily cover. Both teams enter this game with identical 8-0 season records. Georgia is coming off a 42-20 win over Florida. Georgia has won 15 straight home games versus FBS opponents and includes going 5-1 ATS as a favorite of 7.5 to 19.0. Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 8.5 (Georgia) with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off a conference win by 21 points or greater, versus an opponent (Tennessee) with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 15-2 ATS and 17-0 SU since 2006. The average victory margin in those 17 contests was 17.6 points per game. Give me Georgia minus the points. |
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11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show |
Central Florida @ Memphis 3:30 PM ET Game# 403-404 Play On: Memphis +3.5 (10*) This has all the earmarks of a trap game for UCF. The Golden Knights are coming off last Saturday’s emotional 25-21 home win over perennial conference pow Cincinnati. Up next, they’ll travel to Tulane who ic currently the top ranked Group of Five team in the country. In between, it’s this Saturday’s matchup versus a 4-4 Memphis team who has lost each of their previous 3 contests. The good news for Tigers backers is their team is 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming in fluky fashion after blowing a 32-19 lead with less than 2 minutes left versus Houston and they fell 33-32. No miracles or flukes this time. Give me Memphis plus the points for my College Football Top Play of the Week. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
Kentucky @ Missouri 12:00 PM ET Game# 361-362 Play On: Missouri +1.0 (5*) Kentucky was blown out 44-6 at #1 Tennessee last Saturday. After starting the season 4-0, the Wildcats have lost 3 of its last 4, and had a turnover margin of -5. Missouri is coming off a 23-10 upset win at South Carolina last Saturday. Missouri is 4-4 (.500) this season but 3-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to #3 Georgia 26-22. The Missouri defense has been outstanding during their previous 3 games while allowing only 16.0 points and 268.3 yards per contest. They’ll be facing a Kentucky offense that over its last 4 games has averaged only just 16.5 points scored and 313.0 yards gained per game. College Football home teams with a in percentage of .500 or worse (Missouri) playing before Game 12 and they’re coming off an underdog SU upset win, versus an opponent coming off a road loss by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 2013. If those home teams had a point-spread parameter of +3.5 to -9.5 they were 11-0 SU&ATS since 2013 and won by an average of 16.4 points per game. Give me the Missouri Tigers in this one. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
Appalachian State @ Coastal Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 313-314 Play On: Coastal Carolina +3.0 (5*) Appalachian State enters this contest with a somewhat disappointing 5-3 record. That includes 2 Sun Belt Conferences losses to James Madison as a 6.0-point favorite and at Texas State as a sizable 19.0-point chalk. Coastal Carolina is coming off last Saturday’s 24-13 win at Marshall and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. That victory improved the Chanticleers season record to 7-1 (.875). Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6.0 and +11.0. The Chanticleers will also be out to revenge last year’s 30-27 upset loss at Appalachian State. Since 2020, Coastal Carolina is 5-0 SU&ATS at home when their point-spread is between -6 to +11.0 and with an average victory margin of 10.5 points per game. Any conference home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference win by 10 points or more, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 to .800, resulted in those home teams going 52-5 (91.2%) straight up since 2018. This SU betting angle takes on added significance since it supports the underdog in this matchup. Additionally, if those home teams had a point-spread parameter of between -6.0 and +11.0 they were 5-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.2 points per game. Give me Coastal Carolina plus the points. |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo -2.5 v. Ohio | 24-45 | Loss | -116 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
Buffalo @ Ohio 7:30 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: Buffalo -2.5 (5*) Ohio is coming off a 24-17 home win over Northern Illinois and did so as a 2.5-point underdog. The Bobcats are now 3-1 in conference action. However, there’s a red flag when considering they’re allowing 486.0 yards per game in those contests. Buffalo got off to a terrible 0-3 start in the non-conference portions of their schedule. Nonetheless, they’ve gone 5-0 SU&ATS in their last 5 and all versus conference opponents. Their most recent victory was a 34-27 home victory over Toledo. During their last 4 contests, the Bulls defense is allowing 15.3 points and 349.3 yards per game while also forcing 11 turnovers. Any conference road favorite of 1.5 or more that’s coming off a home win in which they scored 28 points or greater, versus an opponenta with a win percentage of less than .666 and off a conference SU underdog win, resulted in those home favorites going 15-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin came by an enormous 23.7 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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10-30-22 | 49ers v. Rams +1 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
San Francisco @ LA Rams 4:25 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Rams +1.0 (10*) The Rams are coming off a bye week and were a 24-10 home winner over Carolina in their previous game. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 44-23 home loss to Kansas City which dropped their season record to a disappointing 3-4. NFL home teams (Rams) off a home win by 10-points or more, versus an opponent coming off a home loss by 21 points or greater (49ers) and they have a losing season record, resulted in those home teams going 21-0 SU since 1984. The average margin of victory in those 21 contests came by 11.0 points per game. The SU betting angle takes on added significance because it backs the current 1.0-point underdog LA Rams. Give me the LA Rams for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-30-22 | Bears v. Cowboys -10 | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 50 m | Show | |
Chicago @ Dallas 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Dallas -10.0 (5*) Chicago is coming off a huge 33-14 upset win at New England this past Monday night in a game they closed as a 9.5-point underdog. Since 2020, the Bears have gone 0-5 SU&ATS as an away underdog following an away win in their previous game and lost by an average of 13.4 points per contest. Since the start of last season, Dallas has gone 7-0 SU&ATS as a favorite when facing teams with a losing record. The Cowboys won those 7 contests by an average of 18.6 points per game. The Cowboys lead the NFL in sacks with 29. Conversely, Chicago is dead last in the NFL in sacks allowed with 27, and that’s with an extremely mobile quarterback in Justin Fields. This isn’t exactly a good matchup for a Bears offense against an outstanding Dallas defense that allows just. That’s especially so if they fall behind by more than one score since their passing offense is also dead last in the NFL. NFL home favorites of 7.5 or greater (Dallas) with a win percentage of less than .750, versus an opponent (Chicago) coming off an away underdog of 7.5 to 14.0 ATS win, resulted in those home favorites going 9-0 SU&ATS since 2009. The average victory margin came by an enormous average of 23.9 points per game. Give me Dallas minus the points. |
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10-30-22 | Panthers +4 v. Falcons | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show | |
Carolina @ Atlanta 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Carolina +4.0 (5*) Carolina showed a ton of heart and character in last Sunday’s 21-3 home win over Tampa Bay in a gme they closed as a 13.0-point underdog. Atlanta received a dose of reality in last week’s 35-17 loss at Cincinnati in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. NFL away underdogs of 4.5 or less (Carolina) in Games 2 through 16 with a win percentage of .250 to .400, versus an opponent (Atlanta) coming off an away SU&ATS loss in which they failed to cover by 7.0 or more and they have a win percentage of .400 to .490, resulted in those away underdogs of 4.5 or less going 15-0 ATS since 1981. They also went 13-1-1 SU as well. Give me Carolina plus the points. |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +4 v. South Carolina | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
Missouri @ South Carolina 4:00 PM ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Missouri +4.0 (5*) Missouri is coming off an uninspiring 17-14 home win over Vanderbilt and they now possess a season record of 3-4. However, their previous 3 losses came by a combined 14 points versus Auburn, Florida, and #1 Georgia. Since a 40-12 loss at Kansas State, Missouri has allowed just 19.6 points and 319.8 yards per game during their last 5 contests. Missouri enters this game having gone 10-18 SU in their last 28 road games and that includes 0-3 this season. South Carolina is on a current 4-0 SU&ATS run. By doing so they’ve cracked the Top 25 for the first time this season. Their most recent win came at home 30-24 over Texas A&M. With all being considered, this is an extremely fishy line. We have a Top 25 teams at home laying a short number versus an opponent with a losing record. When it looks too easy in sports betting, more times than not it isn’t. College Football Road Underdogs of 9.5 or less (Missouri) with a losing record who are coming off a conference win by 7 points or fewer, and they’ve won 16 or fewer of their last 28 away games, versus an opponent (South Carolina) with a win percentage of .250 or better that scored 20 points or more during its previous game, resulted in those road underdogs of 9.5 or less going 13-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin for those 13 road underdogs came by 10.9 points per game. Give me Missouri plus the points. |
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10-29-22 | Wake Forest v. Louisville +3.5 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
Louisville @ Wake Forest 3:30 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Louisville +3.5 (10*) Wake Forest is coming off a 48-15 conference win at home over Boston College which improved their season record to 6-1. Louisville is coming off conference wins in each of their last 2 games and both came by double-digit margins. That improved their season record to 4-3. The Cardinals are showing positive signs regarding finishing this season strong. During their previous 4 games, Louisville is at an excellent +8 turnover margin and forced 13 turnovers by opponents. The Cardinals are just 15-13 SU in their last 21 at home, but that fits perfectly into the betting angle displayed below. Since 2018, college football home teams (Louisville) with a winning record that are +10.0 to -10.0 and are coming off back-to-back conference wins in which they allowed 33 points or fewer on each occasion, and they’ve won 23 or less of its previous 28 at home, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) with at least 1 loss on the season and coming off a conference win by 21 points or more, resulted in those home teams going 14-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 14 contests came by 17.1 points per game. Give me Louisville plus the points. |
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10-29-22 | Ohio State -15 v. Penn State | 44-31 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
Ohio State @ Penn State 12:00 PM ET Game# 135-136 Play On: Ohio State -15.0 (5*) Penn State is coming off an impressive 45-17 home win over Minnesota which improved their season record to 6-1. However, the sportsbooks apparently weren’t swayed by that result as they’ve made the Nittany Lions a better than 2-touchdown home underdog against #2 Ohio State (7-0). After failing to cover their first 2 games of the season, Ohio State is 4-0-1 ATS since with an average victory margin of 41.8 points per game. College Football away favorites of 13.5 to 21.0 with a win percentage of .625 or better, versus an opponent (Penn State) with a win percentage of .272 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those road favorites withing that point-spread parameter going 23-0 SU&ATS since 2018. The average margin of victory in those 23 contests came by 29.2 points per game. Give me Ohio State minus the points. |
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10-28-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Florida International +6.5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 25 m | Show | |
Louisiana Tech @ FIU 8:00 PM ET Game# 113-114 Play On: FIU +6.5 (5*) Louisiana Tech has gone a dismal 1-5 versus FBS teams this season and allowed 31 points or more in each contest. Additionally, they allowed 38 points or more on 5 of those 6 occasions. During those 6 games the Bulldogs committed an alarmingly high 15 turnovers. That’s especially concerning when considering FIU has forced 7 turnovers during its last 2 games. The Bulldogs are coming off a 42-41 home loss to Rice in their previous game. Since 2020, Louisiana Tech is 0-6 SU&ATRS on the road following a loss in their previous game. FIU is far from a good team. However, they’re coming off a confidence building 34-15 win at Charlotte in their previous game and racked up a season high 453 yards of total offense. That win improved their season record to 3-4 overall and 2-4 versus FBS teams. This is a case of taking the lesser of 2 evils and based on all the above, there’s plenty of betting value on the home underdog in this contest. Give me FIU plus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Steelers v. Dolphins -7 | 10-16 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Dolphins 8:20 PM ET Game# 473-474 Play On: Dolphins -7.0 (-120) (5*) The Dolphins will be desperate after spoiling their 3-0 start and losing each of their previous 3 games. They will be facing a Steelers team off a huge 20-18 upset win at home versus Tampa Bay and they did so as a 9.5-point underdog. Since 1998, NFL home favorites of 6.5 or greater (Dolphins) playing before Game 14, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off a SU win by 6 points or fewer and as an underdog ranging from 7.0 to 14.0, resulted in those sizable home favorites going 13-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin came by an enormous 22.3 points per game. Give me the Dolphins minus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Lions +6.5 v. Cowboys | 6-24 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Lions @ Cowboys 1:00 PM ET Game# 451-452 Play On: Lions +6.5 (5*) NFL away underdogs of between 6.5 and 10.0 (Lions) that are coming off an away underdog ATS loss in which they held scoreless, and they’re facing an opponent (Cowboys) with a season win percentage of .800 or less, resulted in those away underdogs going 11-1 ATS since 1984. Furthermore, those underdogs also went 9-3 SU during those contests. Give me the Lions plus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals -6.5 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Falcons @ Bengals 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Bengals -6.5 (5*) NFL home favorites (Bengals) of between 4.5 to 9.5 that are coming off a SU win, versus an opponent (Falcons) with a win percentage ranging from .450 to .550 and they’re coming off an underdog SU win by 14 points or more, resulted in those home favorites going 12-1 ATS since 1993. The home favorites also won all 13 of those contests SU and by a decisive margin of 14.8 points per game. Give me the Bengals minus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Packers -4.5 v. Washington Commanders | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Packers @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Packers -4.5 (5*) NFL favorites of 4.0 or greater (Packers) with a win percentage of .538 or worse that are coming off back-to-back SU favorite losses, and they’re playing after Game 5, resulted in those favorites going 12-1 ATS since 2003. Give me the Packers minus the points. |
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10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
Colts @ Titans 1:00 PM ET Game# 455-456 Play On: Tennessee -2.5 (10*) Indianapolis is coming off 2 straight wins but there were red flags to take into consideration moving forward. The Colts allowed an average of 184.0 yards rushing per game in those 2 wins, and that doesn’t bode well for this matchup since they’ll be facing a great running back in Derrick Henry. Tennessee is coming off a bye week and that’s a noteworthy from a betting perspective. Since Mike Vrabel has been their head coach, the Titans have gone 4-0 SU&ATS in regular season games following a bye week, and with a substantial average victory margin of 20.5 points per contest. Tennessee has gone 4-0 SU&ATS in their last 4 versus Indianapolis and that includes a 24-17 road victory on just 3 weeks ago. The Titans were a 21-17 winner at Washington in their previous game and that made them 3-0 SU&ATS in their last 3. Since 2014, NFL teams (Titans) with a point-spread ranging from +2.5 to -3.0 with a win percentage of .510 to .600 that’s coming off a SU&ATS win, versus an opponent (Colts) with a win percentage of .571 to .750, resulted in those teams going 10-0 SU&ATS. The average victory margin in those 10 contests was 13.1 points per game. Give me Tennessee minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-22-22 | Minnesota +5 v. Penn State | Top | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
Minnesota @ Penn State 7:30 PM ET Game# 409-410 Play On: Minnesota +5.0 (10*) Michigan exposed a huge weakness in the Penn State run defense last week while rushing for 418 yards including 7.6 yards per attempt. Minnesota will present them with similar challenges in attempting to stop the run. The Golden Gophers offensive rushing game has amassed 240 yards or more in 4 of 6 contests this season. Minnesota will get back on track in this one and wouldn’t be shocked if they won the game outright. We won’t get greedy. Give me Minnesota plus the points for a 10* Top Play wager. |
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10-22-22 | UCLA v. Oregon -6 | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
UCLA @ Oregon 3:30 PM ET Game# 375-376 Play On: Oregon -6.0 (5*) The #10 Oregon Ducks have reeled off 5 consecutive wins since suffering a humiliating 49-3 loss to #1 Georgia in their season opener. They will be facing #9 UCLA that comes in with an unbeaten 6-0 record. Yet, it’s the lower ranked 1-loss Ducks who come up as a touchdown favorite versus the undefeated UCLA Bruins. It comes as no surprise to me that greater than 60% of tickets bet and money wagered has gone on UCLA. I am taking the contrarian approach in this one. Give me Oregon minus the points. |
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10-22-22 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | 10-48 | Win | 100 | 24 h 58 m | Show | |
West Virginia @ Texas Tech 3:00 PM ET Game# 387-388 Play On: Texas Tech -5.0 (5*) West Virginia has gone just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference away games. The Mountaineers are 3-3. However, they’ve allowed an alarming 38 points or more in 4 of 5 contests versus FBS teams. Texas Tech is coming off conference losses in each of their previous 2 games by scores of 41-31 at #11 Oklahoma State and 37-28 at #17 Kansas State. As a matter of fact, all 3 of Texas Tech losses have come versus ranked opponents with the other defeat at #23 NC State. The Red Raiders had last week off and will be ready to go on Saturday against a West Virginia. They’ve beaten West Virginia in each of the previous 3 meetings. The Red Raiders are a perfect 3-0 at home thus far which includes quality wins over Texas and Houston. College Football conference home favorites of -5.0 to -21.0 (Texas Tech) who’s playing after Game 6, and they’re coming off back-to-back conference SU losses in which they allowed 31 points or more on each occasion, versus an opponent (West Virginia) with a win percentage of .500 or worse, resulted in those home favorites going 22-4 ATS (84.6%) since 2018. Give me Texas Tech minus the points. |
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10-20-22 | Saints +2.5 v. Cardinals | 34-42 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
Saints @ Cardinals 8:20 PM ET Game# 303-304 Play On: New Orleans +2.5 (5*) Arizona has lost 8 consecutive home games and we’re talking about a team that qualified for the playoffs last season. Furthermore, 5 of those 8 home losses came as a favorite. The Cardinals are also coming off a 19-9 SU favorite loss at Seattle last week that dropped their season record to an extremely disappointing 2-4. Conversely, since 2018, New Orleans has gone 27-8 SU and 24-11 ATS during its last 35 away games. That includes going 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 as an away underdog. The Saints have scored 25 points or more in their last 3 games. On the other hand, Arizona has scored 17 points or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games. Give me the Saints plus the small number. |
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10-17-22 | Broncos v. Chargers -4 | 16-19 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
Broncos @ Chargers 8:20 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Chargers -4.0 (5*) The Chargers are coming off back-to-back away favorite ATS covers. Denver is coming off a 12-9 home loss to Indianapolis. NFL home favorites of -4.0 to -15.0 that are coming off 2 consecutive away favorite covers, and they’re facing a team (Broncos) coming off a non-division loss, resulted in those home favorites going 19-3 ATS since 1957. The home favorites also won all 22 of those contests straight up by an average of 17.5 points per game. Give me the Chargers minus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Cowboys v. Eagles -6 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
Cowboys @ Eagles 8:20 PM ET Game# 273-274 Play On: Eagles -6.0 (10*) Dallas is coming off a 22-10 road win over the Rams. The Eagles are coming off a 20-17 win over Arizona and failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. That victory improved the Eagles record to a perfect 6-0. Philadelphia has now gone 16-16 SU in their last 32 games played. NFL home favorites of between 5.5 to 12.0 with a win percentage of better than .600 playing after Game 5 of the season, and they’re coming off an away win in which they scored 13 or more and allowed 24 or less and failed to cover, and they’ve won 24 or fewer of their last 32 games played versus an opponent who scored 31 or less in their previous game, resulted in those home favorites going 17-0 SU&ATS since 1982. The average margin of victory in those 17 contests came by an enormous 22.2 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals -2 v. Seahawks | 9-19 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Seahawks 4:05 PM ET Game#269-270 Play On: Cardinals -2.0 (5*) Arizona has unusual home/away splits to start the season. The Cardinals are 0-3 SU&ATS at home and 2-0 SU&ATS in away games. That road success isn’t out of the ordinary for Arizona. Since the start of last season, Arizona has gone 10-1 SU&ATS during regular season away games. The Cardinals are coming off a 20-17 loss to Philadelphia, but they covered as a home underdog of +5.5. That loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). Conversely, Seattle is coming off a 39-32 loss at New Orleans. NFL road favorites of 3.0 or less (Cardinals) with a win percentage between .250 and .600, and they’re coming off a SU loss but covered as an underdog, versus an opponent (Seahawks) coming off a SU loss by 16 or less in which they also allowed 20 points or more, resulted in the away favorites of 3.0 or less going 12-0 SU&ATS since 1986. The average victory margin came by a decisive 16.1 points per game. Give me the Cardinals minus the small number. |
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10-16-22 | Patriots v. Browns -2.5 | 38-15 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
Patriots @ Browns 1:00 PM ET Game# 257-258 Play On: Browns -2.5 (5*) The Browns are coming off a 31-29 home loss to the Chargers. New England is coming off a 29-0 home win over Detroit. New England has gone 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. That includes 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as a road underdog. Any NFL team with a point-spread between +3.0 and -3.0 (Browns) that’s coming off a SU loss by 3 or less, versus an opponent (Patriots) that allowed 6 points or fewer in their previous contest, resulted in those teams going 38-11 SU&ATS (77.5%) since 1982. Give me the Browns minus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Ravens v. Giants +6 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Ravens @ Giants 1:00 PM ET Game# 261-262 Play On: Giants +6.0 (5*) The Giants are coming off a 27-22 upset win over Green Bay last Sunday. That win improved their season record to a surprising 4-1 (.800). They will be facing a Baltimore team coming off a narrow 19-17 home win over Cincinnati last Sunday. NFL non-division home underdogs playing after Game 3 that are coming off a SU win by 2 points or more, and they have win percentage of .800 or better, versus an opponent coming off a SU win by 28 or less, resulted in those home underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1986. The average line in those 15 games was +3.1 and the underdogs won 12 of those contests straight up. Give me the Giants plus the points. |
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10-16-22 | Jets v. Packers -7.5 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
Jets @ Packers 1:00 PM ET Game# 259-260 Play On: Packers -7.5 (5*) Green Bay is coming off a 27-22 loss to the Giants in their previous game. That defeat dropped their season record to 3-2. The Jets are coming off a division home underdog SU win over Miami. NFL favorites of between 5.0 and 12.0 (Packers) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Jets) with a winning record and coming off a division home underdog SU win, resulted in those NFL favorites going 25-4 ATS (86.2%) since 1990. If those favorites were coming off a loss, this betting angle improves to 9-0 SU&ATS with an average margin of victory coming by 19.0 points per game. Give me the Packers minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Memphis v. East Carolina -5 | 45-47 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
Memphis @ East Carolina 7:30 PM ET Game# 147-148 Play On: East Carolina -5.0 (5*) Since the start of the 2016 season, Memphis has gone an abysmal 0-12 ATS as a road underdog of 1.5 or greater and lost by an average of 18.8 points per game. Furthermore, Memphis is coming off a gut-wrenching 33-32 home loss to Houston in a game they led 32-19 with less than 2 minutes to play. It’s hard to imagine that not taking a mental toll on players and the coaching staff. East Carolina is coming off a disappointing 24-9 loss at Tulane which evened their record at 3-3. The Pirates responded very well after their previous 2 losses with wins over Old Dominion 39-21 and South Florida 48-28. The Pirates offense averages 475 yards gained per game this season and its defense allows 1 point per 18.6 yards gained which is terrific by college football standards. This is a great spot for the Pirates. Give me East Carolina minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Nebraska v. Purdue -14 | Top | 37-43 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
Nebraska @ Purdue 7:30 ET Game# 145-146 Play On: Purdue -14.0 (10*) Nebraska started 1-3 but has bounced back to win their last 2 over Rutgers and Indiana. Don’t get carried away Cornhuskers fans as those 2 teams have combined to go 1-5 in Big 10 Conference play. This is the same Nebraska team that lost 49-14 to Oklahoma. Since then, Oklahoma lost its next 3 and were outscored by an average of 29.0 points per game. They also lost to Georgia Southern at home in a game they were a 23.5-point favorite and versus Northwestern in the Big 10 opener and once again as a double-digit favorite. Purdue is 4-2 on the season and is arguably one of the best 2-loss teams in the country. Their only losses came to #18 Syracuse (5-0) and #10 Penn State (5-0). As a matter of fact, those 2 defeats came by a combined 6 points. The Boilermakers are coming off back-to-back SU road underdog wins at Minnesota (4-1) and Maryland 4-2). Purdue has played a much tougher schedule than Nebraska at this point. The Boilermakers are much better than their record indicates, and they will make sure that’s known in this contest. Give me Purdue minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -3.5 | 40-43 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 15 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State @ TCU 3:30 ET Game# 185-186 Play On: TCU -3.5 (5*) TCU is coming off a 38-31 road win over previously unbeaten Kansas and improved to a perfect 5-0 on the season. Oklahoma State is coming off a 41-31 home win over Texas Tech and they also remain undefeated. TCU will be out to revenge last season’s embarrassing 63-17 loss at Oklahoma State. This sets up a very profitable college football betting angle displayed below. Any undefeated home favorite of 4.5 or less that’s playing with revenge and is coming off a conference win by 24 points or less, versus an opponent with a win percentage of .727 or better and they’re coming off a conference win, resulted in those home favorites within that point-spread parameter to go 18-3 ATS (85.7%) since 2001. Give me TCU minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Iowa State v. Texas -15.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show | |
Iowa State @ Texas 12:00 ET Game# 187-188 Play On: Texas -15.5 (5*) Texas will be playing with big time revenge after losing to Iowa State in each of the previous 3 meetings. I say this because it’s unlikely that Texas will take their foot off the gas peddle even if they possess a comfortable lead. Texas will be facing an Iowa State team with anemic offensive numbers. As a matter of fact, the Cyclones have scored 11 points or fewer in 3 of their 6 games this season. Conversely, Texas has allowed 20 points or fewer in 5 of its 6 games. Additionally, the Texas offense unlike Iowa State has been dynamic on most occasions thus far. Case in point, the Longhorns have scored 34 points or more in 5 of 6 games with the lone exception coming in a 20-19 loss to #3 Alabama. This isn’t a good matchup for Iowa State even despite of their stellar defense. Give me Texas minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Auburn v. Ole Miss -14.5 | 34-48 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Auburn @ Ole Miss 12:00 PM ET Game# 179-180 Play On: Ole Miss -14.5 (5*) This is another big-time revenge situation for the favorite. Ole Miss will be highly motivated to snap a 6-game losing streak to Auburn and I truly believe they’ll be more than up to the task. The #9 Rebels enter this week with a perfect 6-0 record and they’re allowing just 14.5 points and 334.2 yards per game. Their offense is no slouch as well at 39.7 points and 490.3 yards per game. On the other side of the coin is an Auburn offense which has scored 17 points or fewer in each of their last 4 games. During that 4-game stretch, the Tigers had an awful -9 turnover differential. Throughout that identical span, Auburn’s defense allowed 213.8 yards per game. They’ll have their hands full against an Ole Miss offense which averages 242 yards rushing per game and 5.6 per running attempt. Auburn doesn’t match up well at all in this SEC contest. Any college football conference home favorite (Ole Miss) of between 13.0 and 17.0 that’s coming off a conference away favorite cover in which they scored 41 points or more, and they have a win percentage of .750 or better, versus an opponent (Auburn) whose coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games, resulted in those conference home favorites within that exact point-spread parameter going 9-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average margin of victory in those 9 contests came by 24.3 points per game. Give me Ole Miss minus the points. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State v. Michigan -7 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
Penn State @ Michigan 12:00 ET Game# 127-128 Play On: Michigan -7.0 (5*) Any conference home favorite of 5.5 to 10.0 (Michigan) that’s playing after Game 5 and is coming off 3 straight wins which all came over conference opponents, versus a team (Penn State) coming off a conference win by 10 or more and allowed 27 points or fewer, resulted in those home favorite 17-0 SU and 16-1 ATS since 2017. The average victory margin for the home teams came by 22.9 points per game. Give me Michigan minus the points. |
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10-12-22 | UL-Lafayette v. Marshall -10 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
UL-Lafayette @ Marshall 7:30 PM ET Game# 101-102 Play On: Marshall -10.0 (5*) Marshall is coming off a 28-7 win in their previous game. UL-lafatette lost each of their previous 2 games by scores of 21-17 and 20-17. These results set up into a rare but unblemished college football angle which has gone unbeaten since 1981. Any college football home favorite of between 8.0 to 14.0 that’s coming off a win by 16 points or fewer, and they’re facing an opponent coming off back-to-back SU losses which each came by 4 points or less, resulted in those home favorites within these point-spread parameters going 7-0 SU&ATS since 1981. The average victory margin by the home favorites in those contests came by an average of 23.7 points per game. Give me Marshall minus the points. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders +8 v. Chiefs | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Raiders @ Chiefs 8:15 PM ET Game# 479-480 Play On: Raiders +8.0 (5*) This sets up as a potential flat spot for Kansas City. They’re coming off a 41-31 win at Tampa Bay in their previous game which avenged their 2021 Super Bowl loss to the Bucs. Next up for the Chiefs is what figures to be a mega-hyped home game versus a Buffalo team which is, and continues to be, the favorite to win the AFC. Sandwiched between those 2 contests is a game versus the 1-3 Las Vegas Raiders who they swept last season by blowout scores of 48-9 and 41-14. By the way, the Chiefs are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 regular season games as a home favorite of 9.0 or less versus an opponent with a win percentage of .750 or less. All 3 of those contests took place last season and Kansas City lost 2 of those games straight up. The Raiders are coming off their first win of the season after last week’s 32-23 win over Denver in a game they covered as a 2.5-point home favorite. Since the start of last season, Las Vegas has gone 4-0 SU&ATS as an away underdog of between 4.0 to 9.5. The average line in those 4 contests was +6.5 and the underdog Raiders won all 4 SU by an average of 6.3 points per game. Any NFL division away underdog of between 5.5 to 9.5 that’s coming off a dive home favorite ATS win in which they covered by 17.5 or less, and they’re facing a team that allowed 13 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away underdogs going 15-0 ATS since 1994. Those away underdogs also went 8-6-1 SU as well. Give me the Raiders plus the points. |
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10-09-22 | Bengals +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
Bengals @ Ravens 8:20 PM ET Game# 477-478 Play On: Bengals +3.5 (10*) Baltimore is a mentality fragile team right now. They’re 0-2 at home this season while blowing leads of 17 versus Buffalo and 21 points against Miami in doing so. This will be their first meeting with Cincinnati this season after losing twice versus the Bengals last year by scores of 41-21 and 41-17. The Ravens defense has looked vulnerable in 3 of their 4 games this season and I look for Cincinnati’s offense to expose them once again. After starting the season with a pair of narrow 3-point losses, Cincinnati has roared back with 2 straight wins and covered both of those contests as a favorite. It worth noting the obvious of Cincinnati having 3 days more rest than Baltimore heading into this matchup. This is a Bengals team that’s also gone an extremely profitable 10-5 SU and 12-3 ATS during its last 15 away games. That includes 9-0 ATS and 7-2 SU if they were an underdog of 2.5 or greater in those contests. Any NFL division road underdog of 3.5 or less that’s playing in Games 3 through 8, and is playing an opponent (Ravens) who will be playing with double revenge, resulted in those away underdogs going 12-0 SU&ATS since 2009. Now only did the away dogs cover all 12 contests but they won all of them SU by an average of 11.0-points per game. Give me the Bengals plus the points for a Top Play wager. |
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10-09-22 | Steelers v. Bills -14 | 3-38 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
Steelers @ Bills 1:00 PM ET Game# 457-458 Play On: Buffalo -14.0 (5*) Since winning at Cincinnati in their season opener, Pittsburgh has lost 3 consecutive games in a row. Rookie 1st round draft choice Kenny Pickett will make his first career NFL start on Sunday. He will be doing so in one of the most hostile environments that NFL visiting teams are subjected to. Pickett came on in relief of Mitch Trurbisky last week and went 10-13 for 120 yards. However, although that performance line looks impressive, he had 0 touchdown passes and his only 3 incompletions were all interceptions. During their 1-3 start to the season, Pittsburgh is being outgained by an average of 104.2 yards per game. Under head coach Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 0-6 SU&ATS in their last 6 on the road following a SU loss in its previous contest and was outscored by an average of 14.7 points per game. The Bills will be missing a minimum 4 starters on Sunday. However, we’ve seen very little if any line movement, and they possess as good or better, quality depth than any team in the NFL. Buffalo is 3-1 thus far and is outgaining opponents by an average of 178.0 yards per game. Under head coach Sean McDermott, Buffalo is 7-0 SU and 5-0-2 ATS in their last 7 as a home favorite of 10.0 or more and outscored those opponents by an average of 21.7 points per game. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or greater (Buffalo) with a winning record, versus an opponent (Steelers) coming off losses in each of their previous 2 games and they have a win percentage of .250 to .400, resulted in those home favorites going 19-0 SU&ATS since 2013. The average victory margin in those 19 contests came by an average of 23.4 points per game. Give me Buffalo minus the points. |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders +1 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show | |
Titans @ Commanders 1:00 PM ET Game# 463-464 Play On: Commanders +1.0 (5*) Since winning their opening game versus Jacksonville, Washington has gone a dismal 0-3 SU&ATS and lost by an average of 13.3 points per game. Nevertheless, they’re just a 1.5-point underdog versus an opponent that was the #1 seed in the AFC last season, and is coming off wins in their last 2 games. It’s seldom as easy as it looks when it comes to NFL betting. Tennessee is coming of 2 consecutive SU wins, and both came as underdogs. NFL teams haven’t fared well at all when in that exact situation over the past 5 decades. Specifically speaking, NFL teams coming off 2 consecutive SU underdog wins have gone a dismal 39-111-1 SU and 56-95 ATS (37.1%) since 1982 when facing non-division opponents. Give me the Commanders plus the small number. |
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10-08-22 | Washington State v. USC -12.5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
Washington State @ USC 7:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: USC -12.5 (10*) This USC team continues to get better every week under new head coach Lincoln Riley. If the Trojans have a glaring weakness, it’s defending the run. Conversely, although Washington’s offense has been productive in the air, the Cougars have struggled to get any consistency in their running game. During its 4 games versus FBS opponents this season, Washington State has averaged just 81.5 yards rushing per game while averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per attempt. During their only game versus a ranked opponent this season, Washington State allowed 44 points and surrendered 624 yards in a home loss to Oregon. Here's another key football handicapping component that stands out in this contest. Throughout their first 5 games, USC has yet to commit a turnover while also forcing opponents to turn it over 14 times. On the other hand, Washington State has committed 12 turnovers over their first 5 games. This isn’t a good matchup for the Washington State Cougars. Yes, the Cougars are 4-1 but their win have all come versus unranked teams that have been less than impressive to start their seasons. Any college football undefeated home favorite of -4.0 to -19.0 that’s coming off a home win, and they’re facing an opponent with a win percentage of .600 or better, resulted in those home favorites within this point-spread parameters going 11-0 ATS since 2018. The average victory margin in those 11 contests came by a decisive 22.5 points per game. Give me USC minus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-08-22 | Utah v. UCLA +3.5 | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Utah @ UCLA 3:30 PM ET Game# 367-368 Play On: UCLA +3.5 Utah is coming off a 42-16 home win over Oregon State and covered easily as a 10.5-point favorite. UCLA is coming off a 40-32 home win over Washington and did so as a 3.5-point underdog. That win improved the Bruins season record to 5-0. Any college football conference home underdog of 7.5 or less whose won 3 or more games in a row, and their previous game was against a conference opponent, versus a team (Utah) coming off a SU&ATS win, resulted in those home underdogs going 16-1 ATS (94.4%) since 2018. The home underdogs went 14-3 SU as well. Give me UCLA plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Louisville v. Virginia +3 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 36 m | Show | |
Louisville @ Virginia 12:00 PM ET Game# 315-316 Play On: Virginia +3.0 (5*) Louisville is coming off a 34-33 loss at Boston College in a game they closed as a 13.5-point favorite. That upset loss dropped their season record to 2-3 (.400). That record includes 0-3 SU&ATS versus fellow ACC teams. Virginia enters this week 2-3 while going 0-3 on the road but they’re 2-0 at home. Any college football home team (Virginia) with a win percentage of .363 or better, versus an opponent coming off a conference upset loss as a favorite of -10.0 to -17.0, and that road team has a losing record, resulted in those home teams 23-2 SU (92%) since 2007. The SU betting angle takes on added significance since it backs the hone underdog Virginia Cavaliers. Give me Virginia plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | TCU v. Kansas +7 | 38-31 | Push | 0 | 21 h 35 m | Show | |
TCU @ Kansas 12:00 PM ET Game# 337-338 Play On: Kansas +7.0 (5*) I was on TCU last week as a 6.0-point home underdog and they came through after blowing out Oklahoma 55-24. That win improved TCU to 4-0 on the season. However, my over 2 decades of experience reminds me that teams coming off an upset win at home versus a nationally ranked opponent are more times than not flat in their following game. I firmly believe that mental aspect will come into play when they travel to Lawrence, Kansas to take on an upstart Jayhawks team which has started the season 5-0. Any college football home underdog (Kansas) who’s undefeated and is playing after Game 5 of the season, and they won 24 or less of their previous 28 home games, versus an opponent coming off a SU win and they have a win percentage of .833 or better, resulted in those home underdogs going 18-1 ATS (94.2%) since 1982. Those home underdogs also went 17-2 SU in those 19 contests. Give me Kansas plus the points. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU +3 | 40-13 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
Tennessee @ LSU 12:00 PM ET Game# 377-378 Play On: LSU +3.0 (5*) Tennessee is coming off a 38-33 home win over Florida last week which improved their season record to 5-0. The bad news, they allowed Florida to rack up 594 yards of total offense. Since losing their season opener to Florida State 24-23, LSU has reeled off 4 consecutive wins and includes a 2-0 start in the SEC. LSU played a highly ranked team at home earlier this season and came away with a convincing 31-16 win over #24 Mississippi State. LSU also beat Auburn 21-17 on the road during its previous game. Any college football home team with a win percentage of .800 or better that’s coming off a conference away win, and is playing after Game 3 of the season, and they’re facing a conference opponent with a win percentage of .800 or better, resulted in those home teams going 41-9 SU (82%) since 2018. If the home teams were an underdog of 7.5 or less, they were an extremely profitable 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS. Give me LSU plus the points. |
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10-07-22 | Houston +3 v. Memphis | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 55 h 50 m | Show | |
Houston @ Memphis 7:30 PM ET Game# 305-306 Play On: Houston +3.0 (5*) Memphis lost 49-23 in their season opener at #23 Mississippi State. Since then, they have strung together 4 straight wins. It must be noted, their 4 wins came against opponents with a combined 8-12 (.400) record and none of those teams currently have a winning record. Memphis has also benefitted from a +9 turnover margin thus far. Houston on the other hand is exactly even in that category and against far better competition than Memphis has faced. Houston was a Top 25 ranked team in the AP Preseason college football poll. Nevertheless, the Cougars are off to a disappointing 2-3 start to the season. However, they have faced an extremely tough schedule to date with their five opponents currently possessing a cumulative 18-7 (.720) record. Furthermore, 2 of their 3 losses came by exactly 3 points to Tulane (4-1) and at Texas Tech (3-2) in overtime. The other came against #19 Kansas (5-0). Their 2 wins came over Rice and UTSA who both currently are at 3-2 on the season. Give me Houston plus the points. |
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10-05-22 | SMU +3 v. Central Florida | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
SMU @ Central Florida 7:00 PM ET Game# 421-422 Play On: SMU +3.0 (5*) Central Florida is coming off a 27-10 home win over Georgia Tech. The victory margin in that contest was a bit misleading since the Golden Knights were outgained 452-333 in that contest. UCF relies heavily on their running game which has encompassed 62.5% of their offensive plays this season in addition to 57% of their total yards. That is a winning formula when playing with the lead. However, they showed vulnerability in the 2nd half of their 20-14 home loss to Louisville when their running game stalled, and their defense couldn’t get off the field. Louisville forced the Golden Knights out of their comfort zone evidenced by them forced to throw the ball on 47.2% of their offensive plays. SMU is coming off a bye week that was preceded by 2 close losses against quality non-conference competition. They lost 42-34 to #17 TCU (4-0) and fell short in a 34-27 defeat at Maryland (4-1). Those losses evened the Mustangs record at 2-2. The SMU offense has been dynamic thus far while amassing 453 yards of total offense in all 4 of their contests while also averaging a healthy 38.5 points scored per game. If I may steal a boxer’s cliché, you most time than not have a puncher’s chance when betting on an underdog with high-powered offense. Additionally, SMU has faced the tougher competition compared to UCF and the Mustangs are coming off a bye week. Any college football conference away underdog of 4.0 or less (SMU) who is coming off 2 consecutive losses, and is coming off a bye week, and they possess a win percentage of less than .545, resulted in those away underdogs going 32-9 ATS (78%) since 1980. Those underdogs also went 30-11 SU in those contests. If they were facing an opponent (UCF) coming off a SU win this college football ATS betting angle improves to 12-1 ATS (92.3%) and 11-2 SU. Give me SMU plus the points. |
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10-02-22 | Patriots +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Patriots @ Packers 4:25 PM ET Game# 275-276 Play On: Patriots +10.5 (10*) I may be in the minority, but I’m not as high on New England starting quarterback Mac Jones as most others are. As a matter of fact, I truly believe that there’s very little drop off by going to the veteran Booby Hoyer who will get the start due to Jones being on the shelf with an ankle injury. New England is coming off last Sunday’s 37-26 home loss to Baltimore. Under Bill Belichick, New England has gone 26-6 SU&ATS following a loss in which they allowed 31 points or more. That also includes 13-1 SU in their last 14 if they’re coming off a home defeat. Green Bay is 2-1 thus far but it’s been the Packers defense that has far outplayed their offensive teammates. The Packers are averaging just 16.0 points scored per game. Furthermore, they are averaging 1.0 point scored per 22.2 yards gained which is terrible. They’ll be facing a solid New England defensive unit which is surrendering only 314.7 yards per game. NFL underdogs versus teams that average 17.0 or fewer points scored per game are 21-3 ATS (87.5%) since 2018. They also went 14-11 SU during those contests. Give me the Patriots plus the points for a 10* Top Play. |
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10-02-22 | Cardinals v. Panthers +1 | 26-16 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
Cardinals @ Panthers 4:05 PM ET Game# 271-272 Play On: Panthers +1.0 (5*) Arizona has gone 9-1 SU&ATS during its last 10 regular season away games. Nonetheless, the Cardinals are coming off a 20-12 division home loss to the Rams which left them with a 1-2 record. Arizona is 0-3 SU&ATS in their last 3 away following a division home loss and were outscored by 17.3 points per game. Carolina is coming off a 22-14 home win over New Orleans which improved their season mark to 1-2. The Panthers 2 losses have come by a combined 5 points. So, with a little bit of luck they could very easily be 3-0. The Panthers are a poor 7-22 during their last 29 at home, and last week’s home win over New Orleans snapped an 0-7 SU&ATS skid in games played at Charlotte. Additionally, 6 of those previously mentioned 7 home wins have come when their point-spread is +3.0 to -3.0. Any NFL home team with a win percentage of .250 to .400 that’s coming off a win in which they scored 22 points or more, versus an opponent with a losing record and is coming off a loss in which they scored 21 points or fewer, resulted in those home teams going 17-1 SU (94.4%) since 2016. If those home teams were -2.5 to +4.5, they were a perfect 6-0 SU&ATS with an average victory margin of 8.8 points per game. Give me the Panthers. |
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10-02-22 | Titans v. Colts -3.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show | |
Titans @ Colts 1:00 PM ET Game# 253-254 Play On: Colts -3.5 (5*) Tennessee’s offensive strength is their running game. However, that aspect of their game has been disappointing throughout their first 3 games of the season. It doesn’t get any easier against a Colts defense which has held their first 3 opponents to a mere 77 yards rushing per game and a paltry 2.6 yards per attempt. Furthermore, after trading away start wide receiver A.J. Brown to Philadelphia during the offseason, the Titans sorely are lacking a receiver that can threaten opponents in the deep vertical passing game. Another concern for Tennessee is their defense is allowing 145 yards per game rushing and will have the unenviable task of trying to slow down star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Give me the Colts minus the points. |
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10-02-22 | Jaguars v. Eagles -6.5 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show | |
Jaguars @ Eagles 1:00 PM ET Game# 265-266 Play On: Eagles -6.5 (5*) Philadelphia is coming off last Sunday’s 24-8 win over Washington and covered easily as a 6.0-point favorite. Jacksonville is coming off a 38-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in a game they closed as a 6.5-point underdog. This sets up an unbeaten NFL ATS betting angle which is shown below. Any NFL home favorite of 10.5 or less (Eagles) that’s coming off an away favorite ATS win in which they covered by 9.5-points or greater, versus an opponent (Jaguars) off an away underdog SU win and has a win percentage of .416 or better, resulted in those home favorites going 11-0 ATS. The average victory margin for those home favorites was 15.5 points per game. Give me the Eagles minus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Liberty v. Old Dominion +3.5 | 38-24 | Loss | -108 | 49 h 1 m | Show | |
Liberty @ Old Dominion 6:00 PM ET Game# 137-138 Play On: Old Dominion +3.5 (5*) Old Dominion is coming off a 29-26 home win over Arkansas State. The Monarchs are 2-0 ATS this season as a single-digit underdog. They upset Virginia Tech in their season opener as a 6.0-point underdog. Additionally, as a 9.0-point road underdog at Virginia, they lost 16-14 with the Cavaliers kicking a game winning field goal with only 0:02 left to play in the game. Any college football home underdog of 6.0 or less that’s coming off a home win by 3-points or fewer in which they scored 32 points or less, and they’re playing in Games 2 through 6, resulted in those home underdogs going 25-1 ATS (95.8%) since 1985. Those home underdogs also went 22-4 SU in those contests. Give me Old Dominion plus the points. |
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10-01-22 | Wake Forest v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 31-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 57 m | Show |
Wake Forest @ Florida State 3:30 PM ET Game# 123-124 Play On: Florida State -6.5 (10*) Florida State is off to a 4-0 start to the season which includes wins over LSU (3-1) in a game played in New Orleans, and conference victories at Louisville as well as last week’s 44-14 blowout of Boston College. Wake Forest is coming off last Saturday’s emotional and heartbreaking 44-38 overtime loss to #5 ranked Clemson. There’s very little chance they can come close to matching the intensity level they exhibited last week, especially so because of the nature in which they lost, and now playing another national ranked team on the road. Additionally, this is an opportunity for Florida State to make a huge statement to the nation that Seminoles football is once again highly relevant. I think Florida State will be more than up to the task. Any college football home favorite (Florida State) that averages 440 yards or more of total offense per game, and they averaged 7.25 yards or more per offensive yards per play throughout their previous 2 contests, versus an opponent (Wake Forest) who defensively allows 330 to 390 yards per game, resulted in those home teams going an exceptional 71-25 ATS (74%) since 1992. Those home teams also went 93-5 SU during those contests and outscored the visiting teams by an average of 25.9 points per game. Give me Florida State minus the points for a 10* Top Play winner. |