Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-20-21 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 230.5 | Top | 100-102 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - The Warriors are in the 2nd game of a back to back and yesterday's game at Orlando flew over the total. Look for this to do the same as the over is 12-4 in the Hornets last 16 games. Charlotte comes in with fresh legs as they have not played in nearly a week. Look for the Hornets to push the pace here as they are averaging 119 points per game last 9 games. Golden State is averaging 123 points their last 5 road games and they continue to pile up points in recent weeks. Non-conference match-up with very little defense expected here. Recent meetings between these teams stayed under the total but the situation here as well as the way these teams have been playing of late dictates an over. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-16-21 | Nuggets v. Celtics OVER 221.5 | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #535 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are off back to back unders but this was preceded by a 4-1 run to the over. Also, after an embarrassing loss at Washington where they scored just 91 points, Boston will bounce back on the offensive end and score a pile of points here at home. However, the Nuggets will score plenty here as well even if down a few guys. Keep in mind, players missing for Denver can also impact defensive play and I am certain that is why this total is in the 220 range even though the Nuggets are without some guys. The fact is that Denver is on a 10-3 run to the over. The Nuggets have scored an average of 120.4 points per game in those 10 games that went over the total. The Celtics respond off the embarrassing loss to the Wizards but do not be surprised if the Nuggets continue their high-scoring ways as well and this turns into a shootout. I also do not expect the defensive intensity of Denver to be at its best (not even close actually) considering that they are coming of a huge revenge win over the Lakers. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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02-15-21 | Bulls v. Pacers OVER 226.5 | Top | 120-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #519 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - The Bulls Markkanen got hurt a few games back and including that game and through their most recent game Chicago has also been without Porter and Carter. That said, the Bulls scoring must be way down, right? After all, these are 3 of their top scorers. That is what is funny about how things often work. Without these guys one could say Chicago has been a little more disjointed. What happens then? Teams play a different style often when guys are out and others are stepping in. For the Bulls, this has led to them still scoring quite well - 114.6 ppg their last 5 games - but really starting to slip up on the defensive end as Chicago has allowed 120.5 ppg their last two games. Long-term the over is 6-2 in Bulls road games as their defense certainly is not known for traveling well and that is even when their healthy. That said, and with this total dropping from a 230 to the mid-220s this morning, we have excellent line value here. The Pacers have averaged 118 points their last two games plus are off a very high-scoring win at Atlanta which totaled 238 points. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams and they totaled 231 points in their only meeting this season. Their most recent home game was low-scoring but it came against a strong Utah team. Prior to that, 6 of Indiana's last 7 home games totaled at least 227 points and this one will too! 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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02-14-21 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 229 | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #507 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a big win at Atlanta where they totaled 125 points despite being able to back off and score only 15 in the 4th quarter! The Hornets are also off a big win as they scored 120 points in their win over Minnesota which was also on Friday like the Spurs. That said, I like to look for overs when teams are off of high-scoring wins as there tends to be a natural let up on defense. Essentially it is just a case of thinking your offense can bail you out of anything so why worry too much about defense? Note that the Hornets have scored an average of 120 points their past 8 games. Also, holding true to what I mentioned earlier, when Charlotte is 5-1 to the over the last 6 times when off a win. Being at home here, the Hornets will continue to push the pace and the Spurs come into this one with plenty of confidence after their big win at Atlanta. Overall, the Hornets are 11-3 to the over their last 14 games. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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02-09-21 | Knicks v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 96-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs New York Knicks @ 7:30 ET - We have got a low total to work with here and I know it is because of the Knicks long-term reputation this season as they have a penchant for unders. However, the fact is there is great value here. The total has gone from as high as a 209 to as low as a 206.5 and even though the Knicks are on a run that is only 2-3 to the over, all 5 of those games totaled at least 209 points. Also, even though the Heat have long been known as a lower-scoring grinder-type team, that has not been the case this season. Miami has averaged 110.3 points per game their last 6 games. The Heat have allowed an average of 112.1 points per game their last 16 games. These teams just met on Sunday and the game totaled "only" 212 points but that was enough for the over and was the 3rd straight over in meetings between these teams. That game was on pace for 238 points as of halftime and I feel the fact the scoring pace died in the 2nd half helps to give us even more value here in coming right back with another over. Look for the over trend to reach 4-0 in meetings between these teams. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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02-08-21 | Raptors v. Grizzlies OVER 223.5 | Top | 128-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #563 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors @ 8 ET - The Grizzlies have trended under this season but Memphis has scored an average of 113.8 points during their current 7-3 run their last 10 games. The Grizzlies are on a 3-game losing streak, in part, because they have allowed 122.3 points their last 3 games. Now they host a Raptors team that is on a 5-0 run to the over and is 8-4 to the over in road games this season. Toronto has scored an average of 121.2 points per game their last 5 games. But the Raptors have allowed 121.5 points their last 4 road games. We get a rather low total here because of the long-term reputation of the Grizzlies. The key here in this situation is the set-up is perfect for big points from Memphis but the Raptors will not slow down either. As a result the Grizzlies and Raptors get into a back and forth tussle here with plenty of scoring. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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02-05-21 | Pelicans v. Pacers OVER 226 | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #515 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - The posted total on this one is much higher than the first meeting between these teams a month ago. Big mistake by the odds makers right? Of course not. The fact is that both these teams have been trending over the total since that meeting and that game also flew well over the total. The Pelicans are off a high-scoring win and the Pacers are off a high-scoring loss. The over is now 13-2 in the last 15 games for New Orleans. The over is now 8-2 in the last 10 games for Indiana. Last season both meetings went over the total and I look for another season series sweep for the over this season as well! The Pacers will score well at home but they have allowed 117.1 points per game their last ten games. The Pelicans have allowed 116.9 points per game their last 15 games. You can easily see why I would not be surprised to see this game get into the mid-230s and yet we are dealing with a total in the mid-220s. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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01-31-21 | 76ers v. Pacers OVER 223.5 | Top | 119-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #519 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:05 ET - The 76ers are off back to back unders but this was preceded by a 9-2 run to the over. The Pacers are off an under but this was preceded by a 5-1 run to the over. Philadelphia allowed just 94 points to a bad Minnesota team Friday but this was preceded by allowing 115.6 points per game their preceding dozen games. Also, the Pacers have allowed 115.1 points per game their last 7 games. Given the above as well as the fact each team is averaging 113 points per game on the season, I expect this game to get well into the 230s. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 in Indiana's last 6 games. The Pacers have scored 120 or more points in 2 of their last 3 games but this is a team that has been struggling defensively. Also, the 76ers are known for their struggles on the defensive end when away from home. Consider their game against the Timberwolves an aberration as Philadelphia entered that game having allowed 106 points or more in a dozen straight games. Both teams are rested plus neither team has a game tomorrow either so they can each go all out here. Look for a high-scoring game as a result. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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01-29-21 | 76ers v. Wolves OVER 224 | Top | 118-94 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
Non-Conf Total of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #577 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:05 ET - I know that between covid and injuries, there are couple of big names on the injury report for tonight's game. However, ask yourself this question...who is going to play defense and why? This is a non-conference game for one thing. For another thing, the 76ers are off a massive win over the Lakers that will likely leave them flat-footed defensively after giving so much effort against LeBron and Company. As for the Timberwolves, they will simply be running and gunning here because what do they have to lose? Minnesota has lost 13 of its last 15 games and is going nowhere this season. So Minny is 3-0 to the over in their last 3 games and has allowed an average of 120 points per game their last 4 games. Philly is off an under in their hard-fought win versus LA but the Sixers entered that game on a 9-2 run to the over. Philadelphia allowed an average of 117.4 points per game during that 11 game run and I expect this game to get into the 230s and possibly even the 240s as I just don't foresee much defense in this non-conference affair. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets OVER 228.5 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
TNT Smash Pass - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Thursday NBA 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 7:35 ET - I am very much aware of the fact that Rockets games have been trending under but the Blazers are in town and this one promises to get quite wild in terms of scoring. Portland is averaging 120 points per game on the road this season but allowing 116 when away from home! The Trail Blazers defensive numbers are ugly including allowing opponents to hit 48% from the field. As for the Rockets, they are scoring an average of 113 points per game their last 5 games and the last match-up between these teams a month ago totaled 254 points. Both teams have fresh legs as they come in rested and also do not have a game on deck for tomorrow either. All out effort with plenty of points and this one will surprise some by turning into a bit of a track meet with quick running and gunning. The over improves to 4-0 in Portland's last 4 games with a high-scoring shootout here. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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01-18-21 | Suns v. Grizzlies OVER 218.5 | Top | 104-108 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #560 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns @ 5:05 ET - The last time I checked Jonas Valanciunas gets a lot of rebounds and is a key part of the Grizzlies defense around the rim and in the paint. In all seriousness though it is sometimes almost comical how the markets react to things. This total has been driven down severely because Jonas Valanciunas is out and everyone just looks at his offensive production. Let me remind you that Ja Morant just came back for Memphis and his game against the Sixers was only his 4th game out of 12 Grizzlies games this season. The point is that Morant is a huge scorer that Memphis just got back plus they are going to have play a bit of small ball in this one plus the Suns offense is going to take advantage of Jonas Valanciunas being out and will be able to score more than usual around the rim. So you combine all those factors plus about a 5 point drop on this total and you can count me in every single time. Yes the recent match-ups between these teams have trended under but each of the last 3 totaled at least 223 points which of course would put this one into the win column. Also, the Suns have allowed 116.4 points per game their last 5 games and 4 of the 5 went over the total. Phoenix will score well against a Grizzlies interior defense that has been depleted but the Suns certainly haven't been playing good defense of late as you can see. That said, the play here is the over. Phoenix has averaged 113 points per game their last 5 road games. The Grizzlies enter this game on a 4-game winning streak in which they have averaged 107.5 points per game and 3 of those games were without Ja Morant. This one, per the above, should get well into the 220s. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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01-16-21 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 217 | Top | 91-103 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets @ 5 ET - These teams just met Thursday and that game stayed just under the total despite the complete reshuffling of the Rockets roster (the big Harden trade) plus some unusual shooting stats. The Spurs shot just 29% from three point land and Houston shot just 63% from the free throw line. Keep in mind San Antonio is shooting 37% from beyond the arc this season and the Rockets are knocking down 75% of their free throws. After those unusual stats and the fact that the Spurs are hungry and playing with revenge here after the upset loss, look for this one to easily fly over the total. This total is even lower than the Thursday one but that is simply not justified and we'll step in and take advantage of the corresponding value. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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01-14-21 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 219 | Top | 108-111 | Push | 0 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #569 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - Charlotte's game died in the 4th quarter last night in terms of scoring and that cost us our play on the over. However, that 38 point 4th quarter is now serving us to give us some value here as this total has plummeted by a couple buckets from its opener and I am happy to jump in on the lower number. Toronto is back "home" in Tampa for this one and certainly happy to be back on the East Coast after a West Coast trip. Look for the Raptors, averaging 117.5 points their last 6 games, to put up plenty here as they catch the Hornets in a back to back. As for Charlotte, they had averaged 113.3 points per game their last 3 games before that horrible effort against the Mavericks last night. The Raptors have allowed 118.3 points per game their last 6 games. Look for a high-scoring affair as both teams look to respond off losses. The Raptors have lost two straight by just a single point each defeat while the Hornets are off the 93 point effort last night. Both teams get back on track offensively here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets OVER 219.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Dallas Mavericks @ 7:05 ET - As long-time followers know I like taking overs particularly when each team is off a win and, if they are on a winning streak, it is even better. That is because winning can mask other issues and then there just tends to be a natural tendency to relax on the defensive end because you are so confident you are going to win the game with your play at the other end. The Mavericks have won 3 straight games and averaged 116.3 points per game in doing so. The Hornets have won 4 straight games and averaged 110.5 points per game in doing so. That puts this game in the 227 range and it did open up in the low 220s but the markets are pushing it below 220 now which means even more value for us. Note that the Mavericks offense has been better on the road than at home this season as they are averaging 114.3 points per game away from home plus shooting 47% from the field as travelers. As for the Hornets, they are hitting 37% from three point land at home this season. Also, look for the Mavs to get an additional boost with the return of Kristaps Porzingis expected tonight. He will be making his season debut and this is a big boost for the energy of the club even if he is on a minutes restriction. The Mavs will feed off the positive energy and I look for a back and forth high-scoring affair here. By the way, when on the road this season and coming off an under (which is the situation for this game), the Mavericks have gone a perfect 3-0 to the over this season. Also in match-ups between these teams last season that had a posted total of 220 or less, the over went a perfect 2-0. Double perfect spot and I love this situation and the value. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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01-11-21 | Knicks v. Hornets OVER 210 | Top | 88-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - I am well aware of the fact that the Knicks are on a long under streak right now. However, so too are the odds makers. That is why they pushed this total a little lower and now the betting markets are pushing it lower as well and it is down to as low as a 210 as of gameday morning. That is significant because the Knicks had one outlier this season as they had a game in which they allowed only 86 points. In their other 9 games this season New York has allowed an average of 107.2 points per game and they have allowed at least 100 in all 9 games. Now, off back to back losses, I expect the Knicks to respond on the offensive end as well. As ugly as yesterday's game was New York did score 51 points after halftime and will carry some momentum from that into this game. Also, the Knicks had a 3 game winning streak prior to these back to back losses and New York scored an average of 110.3 points per game in those 3 wins. Charlotte enters this game on a 3-game winning streak so they are rolling with confidence and are averaging 111 points per game during this win streak. Overall, the Hornets have had one outlier this season which was a game versus Memphis in which they scored only 93 points. In their other 9 games they have averaged 110.1 points per game and so you can see why I am projecting that the posted total on this game will prove to be too short. This is particularly true considering the situational factors as the Knicks respond on offense after back to back poor games while the Hornets continue rolling on their 3-game win streak and might be a little complacent on the defensive end as a result. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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01-08-21 | Thunder v. Knicks OVER 208.5 | Top | 101-89 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET - When the hunter becomes the hunted, things tend to change. Now I know the Knicks aren't necessarily a top team in the NBA but they are certainly much improved and, interestingly enough, this is the first time this season that New York is favored in a game. Of course some of that has to do with playing a Thunder team that has a new coach as well but has not responded as well to the coaching change. My thought process here is leading me to the over. The Knicks have won 3 straight games and are playing with plenty of confidence. Oklahoma City also is off a win and the Thunder are actually 3-1 SU and ATS in road games this season. So they play well away from home and when teams are off wins they can be prone to some let up in defensive intensity in their next game. Oklahoma City has allowed an average of 114 points per game this season when off a SU win. The Knicks have been strong on the defensive end but this is still the lowest total we've seen posted for either one of these teams this season and New York has averaged 111.2 points per game in their 5 wins this season. Oklahoma City has averaged 104.5 points per game on the road this season. I see this game getting into the 215 range and we're dealing with a total much lower than that. Lets take advantage as both these teams off outright upset wins as 8 point dogs in their most recent game. Confidence running high for both teams on the offensive end of the floor right now. 10* OVER the total in New York Knicks |
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01-02-21 | Knicks v. Pacers OVER 214.5 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The Knicks are off a ridiculous performance against the Raptors in their most recent game and that has given us great value here with this over. After scoring just 83 points on an insanely ugly 3 of 36 shooting performance from beyond the arc, the Knicks will bounce back on the offensive end here. New York's first match-up with Indiana this season totaled 228 points and this one will likely get to that range as well. Indiana, having already beaten the Knicks plus entering this game off a win, could be a little lax on the defensive end in this one. The Pacers are scoring an average of 117 points per game this season and they allowed at least 106 points in each of their first 4 games this season. That said, coming off a strong effort against an injury-depleted Cavaliers team that saw them allow just 99 points, don't be surprised if there is a let up on defense in this one. The Knicks are hungry for a strong offensive showing after back to back bad games on that end of the floor followed a 130 point outburst against Milwaukee. That said, I am looking for this one to easily get over the rather low posted total considering all the factors. We've got a value number to work with here. 10* OVER the total in Indiana |
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12-31-20 | Knicks v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 83-100 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #519 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs New York Knicks @ 7:35 ET - the knicks are off a game which totaled only 181 points and the raptors are off a game which totaled only 193 points...the books were certainly not oblivious to those results but hung a 217 on this game...now the markets are acting like they know something the odds makers don't and that this is some major mistake and the line has dropped to as low as a 214.5 as a result...off course long time followers know how i feel about supposed mistakes by the odds makers...so in this one i am happy to fade the line move and go with the over...keep in mind the knicks prior game totaled 240 points in a win over the bucks and the raptors prior game totaled 233 points in a loss at san antonio...in other words, lets not make the mistake of over-reacting to one game when looking at the total posted on this one...the way i see this one playing out is the the knicks could be a little lackadaisical on the defensive end because they are off rare back to back wins and probably feeling a little too good about themselves...at the same time, the raptors need a big win and are off a horrible 4th quarter that cost them their game versus the 76ers tuesday...that means toronto will want to push the pace here and go for a huge win and i expect them to get a big win and for this game to fly over the total as they force new york into a run and gun type affair...10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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12-30-20 | Grizzlies v. Celtics OVER 217.5 | Top | 107-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #571 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:35 ET - Do you remember run and gun basketball you played in the games that didn't matter? For example, those on the playground for fun and for the right to brag about how you "went off" and poured in bucket after bucket? The point is that this game has the look and feel of "playground basketball". Why is that? Well it is a back to back for Boston. It is a non-conference game. The Celtics are coming off a win. The Grizzlies are also coming off a win but now don't have Ja Morant for this game. Of course he is a playmaker and their leading scorer and is a fantastic player. But his absence has resulted in the posted total on this game plummeting from its opener. That means we have been afforded great line value here with the over in this one. The Grizzlies will not have their usual structure in this game. So what happens then? Half court sets are out the window! This one will play out as a very wide open affair with a lot of points in my transition. We should see some turnovers and some sloppy play as the Celtics are in a back to back and Memphis will be a little unstructured without Morant. I like overs in spots like this. It is a contrarian approach but yet it makes perfect sense and with this being a non-conference match-up and both teams off wins it sets it up been better for plenty of lapses on the defensive end. The focus just won't be there for a match-up like this and Boston is likely to naturally "let up" on defense just because of knowing the fact that Morant is out. It is almost an unconscious reaction but it is a real one and happens often in situations like this. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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12-28-20 | Pistons v. Hawks OVER 223 | Top | 120-128 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #543 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:35 ET - The Pistons are expected to rest some guys including Blake Griffin which is why the spread is now up to double digits on the Hawks. However, the total has moved the other way as it has moved lower and that means great value on the over in this one in my opinion. The Hawks are off to a red hot start this season and scoring very well and those two games were on the road. Atlanta will now be going "all out" in their home opener and the Pistons will be forced to join in on the run and gun action here which means a much higher scoring game than many expect. Keep in mind, each of the last 3 meetings between these teams in Atlanta have gone over the total. Also, Detroit has averaged 132 points in their last two games against the Hawks and though the Pistons most recent game went to OT after a poor 4th quarter for them, they did score 86 points through the first 3 quarters of that game. They were on pace for 115 points in that game and they resume that pace here but there will be no stopping the Hawks as their hot start to the season continues. Could we see a 125-115 type game here? You bet...literally! 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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12-22-20 | Warriors v. Nets OVER 229.5 | Top | 99-125 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:00 ET - The Nets are going to be one of the best teams in the NBA this season with Kevin Durant back and healthy. I look for them to put on a show tonight at home to open up the season the right way. Of course that is why they are priced as a fairly heavy favorite in this one but where I see the value is with the total. That's because the Nets should score plenty here but I also expect Steph Curry and company to let loose tonight with a strong offensive showing. After all the injury issues last season, though Golden State enters this season with some problems, it is time for a response this season. The Warriors will hit the floor running (literally) and I look for a very high-scoring and entertaining match-up here. It will be raining threes for Golden State in this one but the Warriors will absolutely not be able to stop a potent Brooklyn attack at the other end. The Nets put up 129 points against the Warriors last season and will have another huge game here but this time Golden State keeps the game much closer and that means we are looking at a game that should easily get into the 240s. Take advantage of the line here and cash in with what should be easy over in this one. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics UNDER 209 | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #702 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat @ 7 ET - The Celtics lost in OT in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday and that was just their 4th loss of this post-season. So how does Boston react after a defeat? They turn to their defense! After their first 3 losses of this post-season their next game has stayed under the total all 3 times. The Celtics have allowed an average of only 92 points per game when off a loss in these playoffs. Boston has scored an average of only 99 points per game when off a defeat in this post-season. With numbers like that this game is unlikely to get to 200 let alone 210. This is particularly true when you also consider that is unlikely the Heat again knock down 44.4% of their three pointers and score 48 points from beyond the arc in the process. Miami's defense is good too and they'll do everything they can to go up 2-0 in this series. That said, look for a low-scoring grinder on Thursday night. 10* UNDER the total in Boston |
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09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 219 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #715 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:10 ET - Game 3 of this series was on pace for 250 points as it was 64-61 at halftime. Game 2 of this series went over the total even though the 4th quarter totaled just 44 points. That game was on pace for 243 points after three quarters. With this total coming down to as low as a 219 this morning I feel we have great value on the over here. The Rockets have performed well for stretches in this series but then they ultimately falter. This is a must win game for them as a 3-1 hole will prove to be too much. The Lakers scored 117 points in Game 2 after making adjustments after looking like they didn't even want to be there in Game 1 - a loss for LA. Then, in Game 3 the Lakers had one bad quarter (the 3rd) but the rest of the game they were on pace for 121 points. That would put Los Angeles at about a 119 average last two games and they are favored by 5 here. 119-114 sounds about right for me with this one and that puts it more than a dozen points above the number. I'll take the value as I expect a huge game from the Rockets in the offensive end in a do or die situation but they can't get stops on the other end when they need to. The result, in my opinion, is a high-scoring game that could go either way. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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09-08-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 217.5 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #705 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 6:30 ET - I am expecting Giannis to play for the Bucks but, even if he doesn't, we saw what Milwaukee is capable of without him as they rallied the troops to win in overtime in Game 4. I am well aware of the fact that, without OT, Sunday's game would not have gone over the total. However, I am also well aware of the fact that the only reason it needed overtime to go over was because of a horrific 4th quarter performance in terms of scoring. I don't expect a repeat of that here and look for this game to comfortably fly over the total. Each team should shoot a little better from 3-point land overall and Miami fired up a bunch of them from long range in Game 4. The Heat had scored well in this series prior to Sunday's loss and I expect them to bounce back here. But the Bucks proved they are not going to go down without a fight. That said, higher scoring game than many are expecting here as the defense of Milwaukee has not been good in this series but the Bucks, on the other end, will keep the pressure on the Heat and I really don't expect Giannis to miss this. The turn of his ankle bothered him in Game 4 because it was already so tender. But the fact is it did not look severe at all and he'll be good to go here. I would recommend playing this one early because I expect the total to rise later. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 219 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #745 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:30 ET - The Heat have scored at least 115 points in every game this series and the Bucks are certainly not showing any signs that they can slow them down. At the same time though, I just don't see Milwaukee getting swept right out of the playoffs without at least putting up a fight to avoid the sweep. That said, the Bucks won't stop until the final buzzer sounds on this one and they need to push the pace a bit and try to get Miami back on their heels a bit. Keep in mind, Milwaukee averaged 29 points per quarter through the first 3 quarters of what was essentially a must win Game 3. After the epic fourth quarter collapse in that one I look for the Bucks to come up with a much better "close out" in Game 4. Does that mean that Milwaukee wins and avoids the sweep? Not necessarily and that is why I am not touching the side in this game. However, what it goes mean is we should see plenty of points in this one as I expect the Heat to reach at least the 115 mark again and, this time, the Bucks are right there with them when the final buzzer sounds. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #741 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors @ 6:30 ET - Each of the first three games in this series stayed under the total so we're now seeing some value here with the over in Game 4. I look for both teams to shoot better from three point land after the Celtics made just 9 of 29 and the Raptors only 13 of 40 in Game 3. Also, Toronto was just 9 of 16 from the free throw line in Game 3. Just some crazy numbers that I don't see being repeated here and, keep in mind, that game still totaled 207 points. That is not far from the number we're looking at with this total so a few more made threes and a few more made free throws and this game is over the total. That is precisely the call I am making here as the Celtics respond with a little more emphasis in the offensive end coming off the loss. At the same time Toronto feels like they are absolutely back in it after the clutch shot to win Game 3 and will ride a wave of momentum to a strong showing in the offensive end in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-24-20 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets @ 4 ET - I am aware that it took overtime for Saturday's Game 3 between these teams to go over the total. However, the odds makers are also aware of that fact too! They set this total at 221 and it has dropped to as low as a 219 as of early game day morning. Keep in mind that would make this one about 5 points lower than the opening total for the Game 3 match-up. That said, do you really think the Rockets are going to again make just 30% of their threes (15 of 50 Saturday) or that James Harden is going to have a 3rd straight bad game from beyond the arc? Me neither! Yes I aware that Luguentz Dort is now back for the Thunder and guarding him but Harden will get his open looks from deep and start knocking them down. Adjustments are made throughout a series. Additionally, I liked the response I saw from an Oklahoma City team that showed on Saturday that they are not just going to pack it in for this series. Last but not least, Game 3 did have 120 points at halftime so it was on pace for 240 before things tightened up the rest of the way. All signs point to good value, from a situational standpoint, with this low total. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | Top | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets @ 4 ET - Not only are the Jazz scoring very well so far in this series, Mike Conley is expected to clear quarantine and return to the floor for this one! He gives Utah another dangerous scorer and is expected to be back in the lineup Friday. The Jazz saw Donovan Mitchell go off for a ton of points in Game 1 and then in Game 2 he became more of a distributor and Utah was equally as dangerous on the offensive end. That said, I don't see Denver suddenly slowing the Jazz down in this one. Utah is simply playing with too much confidence and have looked great on the offensive end. However, I certainly do expect the Nuggets to respond in a big way after dropping Game 2 in ugly fashion and that means plenty of points expected from Denver in this one too. We are getting line value because the totals continue to be set somewhat based on long-term numbers and, the fact is, the Jazz are playing a different style of basketball right now than they were during the regular season. Utah, had they not lost Game 1 in OT, could easily be up 2-0 in this series. That said, the old adage of "if it ain't broke don't try to fix it" applies here and the Jazz keep piling up points. However, in this one the Nuggets end up keeping pace with them in what should be a dandy of a game as they respond off of Wednesday's loss. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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08-14-20 | Thunder v. Clippers OVER 222 | Top | 103-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #719 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:30 ET - I am sticking with the pattern that has been working very well for me. Two teams involved that will both be playing back-ups and that means very little defensive pressure is likely and we should see a run and gun high-scoring affair. The Clippers enter this game with having played 6 straight games that totaled 229 points or more. The only game that has been low-scoring for LA under the bubble in Orlando was their very first game which was against the Lakers. Of course you will see nothing like the defensive intensity of that game here. In fact you will see the exact opposite and the back-ups will score just fine. In fact, look at Oklahoma City's most recent game. They rallied from a huge deficit thanks in large part to bench production and they beat the Heat 116-115 on Wednesday. The bench led the way to the comeback win. The Thunder reserves showed me a lot with that performance there but it was also the 3rd time in 4 games that OKC has allowed 115 points or more. That said, I look for this game to get into the 230s with plenty of scoring on both ends of the floor as it plays out with the defensive intensity of an All-Star game. In all seriousness this is like an All-Star game but without all the all-stars. It will be free flowing with a lot of great looks at the basket and I'll take advantage of the rather low total posted on this game which is based more on historical data than the true situation here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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08-13-20 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 226 | Top | 127-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter – Rickenbach NBA Rotation #701 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9 ET – In a meaningless game I am looking for a very free-flowing affair with very little defense and a ton of points scored. The Magic are locked in as the #8 seed in the East while the Pelicans are eliminated from playoff contention in the West. New Orleans has allowed 125 points per game in their last 4 losses. The Pelicans have averaged a respectable 114.2 points per game in their last 5 games on the other end of the floor. The Magic have lost 5 straight games and not scored well. But in their first two games under the bubble they averaged 130 points and those games got into the mid-240s. Again, there is no pressure here and this will be a free-flowing game where the shooters can run and gun and without any concern about the end result. This will play out like an All-Star game except with very few stars involved! Just a ton of offense and no defense. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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08-11-20 | Suns v. 76ers OVER 226 | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns @ 4:35 ET - I used the Suns over here yesterday and it cashed and I will come right back with it again today. Phoenix has yet to lose a game under the bubble. Yesterday's win was their 6th straight and they've averaged 120 points per game during this red hot stretch. Of course that is why they're such a huge favorite here against a 76ers team that will be playing entirely back-ups in this one. A combination of rest and injury factors mean 2nd and 3rd stringers take the floor for this one. I know that may concern some in terms of whether Philly will score enough here. But with no pressure on the Sixers I am expecting them to play a very free-flowing game with a lack of defense on one end and some hot shooting on the other end. Again, no pressure on these 76ers and the Suns have proven their very happy to "run and gun" with teams. The result should be a nice pace to this game and one that easily eclipses the rather low total on this one considering the Suns are averaging 120 points per game in the bubble and are facing a Philly team that is already counting down the days to the playoffs beginning. Little resistance from the Sixers in this one and a ton of points as a result. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #737 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:35 ET - The Suns are 5-0 in the bubble thanks in part to offensive production. Indeed, Phoenix is averaging 116.4 points per game in their 5 games in the bubble. On the other end of the floor the Suns have allowed 112 points or more in 4 of the 5 games. The Thunder are off a win versus Washington yesterday and scored 121 points in that game. OKC has been a little "hit or miss" in terms of their offensive production and their tempo. However, the red hot Suns control the tempo in this one and the Thunder are going to be forced to pick up the pace if they want to keep up. As a result, look for plenty of points in this one. The Suns want to try and run the Thunder right out of the arena as Phoenix knows that Oklahoma City is in a back to back. The Suns continue to push for a playoff spot and they'll run and gun again here as a result. 10* OVER the total in Phoenix |
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08-08-20 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 232 | Top | 122-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #713 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 1:05 ET - Both teams off high-scoring wins and are shooting the ball extremely well. Portland off a particularly red hot shooting performance from beyond the arc. The Trail Blazers, not including OT, have scored 124 points or more in 3 of their 4 games in the bubble. They'll be helped by the fact that the Clippers Patrick Beverley (awarded twice to the All-Defensive team in his NBA career) is expected to miss a 2nd straight games. LA, after that fierce battle with the Lakers in their first game within the bubble, has averaged 122.3 points per game since then. You can see why I am forecasting this game to get into the 240's per the above. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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08-07-20 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 4:05 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and has added value to the over in this spot. The Thunder are off a fantastic effort against the Lakers and allowed 86 points in that win. Usually after a big win like that a team comes out and allows a bunch of points in their very next game. That plays right into our hands in terms of this play on Friday. Memphis is off a loss to Utah and needs to respond big as the losses keep piling up for them as they cling to the #8 seed. The problem for the Grizzlies though is they have been giving up plenty of points and seem incapable of getting key stops when they need to. Look for them to have another subpar game on the defensive end and note that the Thunder allowed 121 points to the Nuggets in their game immediately prior to the win over LeBron James and company. Look for plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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08-06-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #777 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 4:05 ET - Off an embarrassing loss as a nearly 20 point favorite against the Nets, the Bucks respond in a big way here. Milwaukee also is getting a couple players back too for this one. The Bucks have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA in the bubble and that will lead to plenty of points in this one. Milwaukee also has a respectable bench which is one of the tops in the NBA. The way I see this game playing out is the Bucks coming out with plenty of tempo combined with better offensive efficiency than we've been seeing from them. They are healthier, they are going to play their starters more, and they're looking for a big-game effort from everyone. The Heat will be forced to "run and gun" to keep up with them as the Bucks force the tempo. The result should be a big Bucks win that lands close to the number ATS but, in my opinion, crushes the total and flies over. That is why I am going with a big game play here on this total. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 221.5 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #771 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This total, as of early game day morning, has already made a big downward move from 224.5 to 221.5 in early action on the game. I look for the Magic defense to struggle in a back to back situation and they have allowed an average of 118 points per game in their first three games. But even though they continue to give up piles of points, Orlando is in a battle for a playoff spot and they'll continue to battle hard in that regard. That means they'll have to turn to the offensive end to try and get an upset win here and the Magic are averaging 123 points per game in their first 3 games back. Though the Raptors, one of the top teams in the East, have been involved in a pair of lower-scoring games since the reboot I look for a different story here. The first two games for Toronto were against the Lakers and the Heat and, as a result, were more intense defensive-minded battles. The Raptors have dominated the series with the Magic and could easily overlook them here as a result. The point is a little less defensive intensity and a free-flowing game is likely. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the early line move here but that is with good reason as explained above. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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08-04-20 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 229 | Top | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets @ 1:35 ET - Don't look for the Bucks to take their foot off the gas in this one. Yes, they'll be resting guys late with a huge lead but their bench will be just fine against the Nets. That said, I look for a very high-scoring game here as the Bucks take out their frustration on an over-matched Nets team. Milwaukee lost a tight one to the Rockets on Sunday because they scored just 4 points over the final 3 minutes of the game. Brooklyn is off a key win over Washington that same day and that built confidence in the offensive end. Yes it was only the Wizards but just getting a W and having a successful effort and scoring 118 points means something. Now the Bucks will impose their will on the Nets and then after establishing a huge lead this game turns into a free-flowing high-scoring run and gun affair as the Bucks bench players get to enjoy their time on the floor too against an out-classed Brooklyn team in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-11-20 | Hornets v. Heat OVER 211 | Top | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - The Heat are off a low-scoring win over the Wizards and that was the 3rd time in the past 5 weeks they have held a team under 90 points. Their next game flew over after each of the first two occurrences and I expect the same result here. When Miami is a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 12 points, the over is 26-11 including 11-4 this season! The Heat have averaged 121.4 points per game their last 7 games at home. Miami scored 117 points in their only other game against Charlotte this season. The Hornets, not including OT, have averaged 111 points per game their last 4 games while allowing 110 points per game during this same stretch. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 home games for the Heat. The over is 6-2 in Charlotte's divisional games this season. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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03-10-20 | Knicks v. Wizards OVER 227 | Top | 115-122 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - Both teams are coming off unusually low-scoring games on Sunday. The Knicks got a big home win over the Pistons and the over is 4-1 this season when they are off a home win by a double digit margin this season. The last time they faced the Wizards it was in New York and the Knicks got embarrassed in an ugly home loss. When playing with revenge from a home loss by a double digit margin, the over is 10-5 this season. The Wizards are off an ugly home loss to the Heat and are a long-term 17-6 to the over the past 3 seasons when off a loss to a division rival. Also, when Washington is off a loss this season the over is 26-13 this season. After being held to just 89 points at home on Sunday, the Wizards give a huge effort on the offensive end in this one. However, their season-long struggles in the defensive end continue here and this game turns into a shootout as a result. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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03-09-20 | Hornets v. Hawks OVER 224 | Top | 138-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Early Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - Both teams were off yesterday and both teams needed that. The Hawks in particular had some issue the last few games with injury and illness but having both Trae Young and Cam Reddish ready to go for this one is a real positive. On a 3-game losing streak, look for the Hawks to push the pace here in an effort to play the role of spoiler against a division rival. Atlanta doesn't win with defense, they win with offense. Though the Hornets playoff hopes are slim they still have some glimmer of light and the Hawks would like to turn out the lights tonight! Atlanta's last 4 home games against the Hornets have all resulted in an over. Charlotte has scored better of late and averaged 108 points per game their last 3 games after some ugly efforts. The Hornets are 3-1 in their last 4 road games and also have averaged 126 points per game in their last two visits to Atlanta while the Hawks averaged 122 points per game in those two as a host. Atlanta is favored here for a reason and they are expected to win. Why is that worthy of note? The Hawks enter this game on a 3-game losing streak and all 3 games stayed under but 6 of their last 7 SU victories have resulted in an over. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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03-08-20 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 225.5 | Top | 112-103 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Pacific Div Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 3:35 ET - The first two games between these foes this season went under the total but one was way back in October when the season was first getting going and the other was on Christmas Day. That being said, this situation is much different as both teams come into this game rolling red hot and I fully expect plenty of points in quite the showdown between these two rivals. Yes the rivalry is real now that LeBron James is with the Lakers and Kawhi Leonard is with the Clippers. This battle likely goes down to the wire but with plenty of points along the way. The Lakers enter this game having scored 111 points or more in 14 of their past 15 games (no OT points included). The Lakers had one ugly game (at Memphis) during this stretch but they averaged 119.2 points in the other 14 games! The Clippers enter this game having averaged 120.5 points per game during their current 6-game winning streak. This game getting to 240 is certainly not out of the realm of possibility given those numbers and I expect 230 at a minimum. Both teams stay hot in this one. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles |
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03-06-20 | Magic v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 132-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Orlando Magic @ 8:05 ET - Revenge game for the Wolves as they lost at Orlando last week so they won't take their foot off the gas here and they do love to run and gun. That match-up last week totaled 261 points and continued the over trending in this series. The over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings between Minnesota and the Magic. Also, Orlando enters this game on an incredible streak with their totals. The over is now 9-0 in their last 9 games. As for the Wolves, they have also been trending the same direction. Prior to their most recent game, a win versus Chicago staying under the total, the over was on a 9-2 run in their 11 preceding games. Night in and night out, both of these teams are constantly getting involved in high-scoring games. I see no reason not to expect more of the same here! Yes the total is a big one here but the over is 8-1 this season in Magic games with a posted total of 220 or more points. The over is 7-2 this season in Timberwolves games against teams from the Southeast Division. Look for another one high-scoring shootout here! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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03-04-20 | Pacers v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
ESPN Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:05 ET - The Bucks won't take their foot off the gas in this one. They are at home off an ugly road loss. Also, Milwaukee lost their most recent match-up with the rival Pacers at Indiana. We're getting some line value with this total because the Bucks are off back to back low-scoring efforts on the road. They are a different team when they are on their home floor! Milwaukee has scored an average of 125 points per game in its last 11 home games. The spread on this game is currently -11 so if the odds makers are right about the line and the Bucks hit their recent scoring average, you have this game total pushing 240. Of course we don't need that number to win but you get my point. I am aware of Victor Oladipo possibly not playing tonight but he has played in a total of only 10 games this season anyway. The Pacers, even without Oladipo, would still score a ton of points here as the Bucks are going to play an uptempo game here. Milwaukee will look like they have been shot out of a cannon throughout this game. As for Indiana, they are off back to back overs and the over is now 11-5 in their last 16 road games. That trend continues here. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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03-03-20 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 214 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a home loss to the Pacers last night that flew over the total. The over is now 8-2 in San Antonio's last 10 games. We're getting some line value here because this total has moved lower as a result of some recent scoring struggles for Charlotte. The Hornets have been held under 100 points in 4 of their last 5 games. However, off an ugly 85-point showing at home against the Bucks, look for Charlotte to bounce back strong here against a Spurs team that may not be at its best defensively in the 2nd game of a back to back. In fact, San Antonio is 24-10 to the over, including 6-1 to the over this season, when playing the 2nd game of a back to back. A lot of time defensive intensity is not as strong in non-conference games and the over is 5-2 in Hornets games against Southwest Division opponents. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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03-01-20 | 76ers v. Clippers OVER 218 | Top | 130-136 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
Daytime TV Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #565 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 3:35 ET - The Sixers are without both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons but don't look for the Clippers to show them any mercy. That said, Los Angeles is averaging 117.5 points per game at home this season and opened up as a 12.5 point favorite here. A 118-106 type game seems perfectly logical here given those numbers and yet this total is about a half dozen points below that. Also note that the Clips have averaged 123.8 points per game in their last 5 wins. The Sixers have allowed 119.8 points per game in their last 6 losses. This game could easily approach the 230 mark in total points as the Clippers won't hold back. LA is playing their final home game before a 2-game road trip and they won't be back on their home floor until next Sunday. The Clippers will make the most of the opportunity and run and gun here. The Sixers, though wounded, do have fresh legs from two off days preceding this game and we'll see plenty of points here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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02-29-20 | Nets v. Heat OVER 222.5 | Top | 113-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #549 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - Total opened up at a 225.5 and has dropped to a 222.5 as of very early game day morning. I understand this is a back to back spot but both teams were involved in high-scoring games yesterday that flew over the total and I expect more of the same today. The over is a perfect 6-0 in Miami's last 6 games. Heat home games are on a perfect 4-0 run to the over. The Nets have scored an average of 113 points per game their last 4 games. Brooklyn is a 7 point dog here. A game ending up in the 120-113 range here would not be shocking in any way whatsoever. That said, we have got a total that is now about 10 points below where it could easily land in my opinion. I'll grab the big value and look for the high-scoring trending to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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02-28-20 | Hornets v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 99-96 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #529 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are off a home loss but it is because they faced the best team in the NBA, Milwaukee. Prior to that low-scoring loss to the Bucks, Toronto had scored an average of 125.6 points per game in their 7 preceding home games. The point spread in this game is 14 and a 125-111 type game certainly is not out of the question and that crushes this total and goes over by 20 points. I know Charlotte occasionally has some ugly games but the Hornets do have a good history of piling up points when facing the Raptors. That is why the over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings. Also, Charlotte enters this game off a win that went over the total. When the Hornets are off a win and playing on the road, they have scored an average of 108.3 points per game the last 3 times. That would translate to a 122-108 game here if the spread is correct at 14 points. Either way, you can see why I am liking the over here given the situation. The fact is the Raptors won't take their foot off the gas considering they are off a loss. Toronto will force Charlotte into a fast-paced game and the Hornets have allowed 117.3 points per game in their last 8 losses. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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02-23-20 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 221.5 | Top | 103-131 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #551 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs @ 7:05 ET - The Spurs are off a win at Utah Friday which stayed just under the total. That was preceded by a stretch in which San Antonio games recorded 5 straight overs. As for the Thunder, they are also off a victory which stayed just under the total and this was preceded by a stretch in which Oklahoma City games recorded 3 straight overs. 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams have resulted in an over. The Spurs have allowed an average of 116.6 points per game in their last 10 road games. The Thunder have allowed an average of 110 points per game in their last 10 home games. The over is 10-3 in games in which the Spurs are road underdog of 6 or less points this season. The over is 9-5 this season when the Thunder enter a game having scored 105 points or more in 5 straight games. The fact is that both teams are "feeling it" right now and will stay hot as this one turns into a high-scoring affair. These teams each scored 65 points in the 2nd half of their game two weeks ago and the up and down style featured throughout the 2nd half of that game carries right into the rematch as OKC seeks revenge for that home loss and is ready to run and gun for the full 48 minutes in this one. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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02-21-20 | Suns v. Raptors OVER 228 | Top | 101-118 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #517 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Phoenix Suns @ 7:35 ET - The Suns are getting healthier as a number of players expected to return tonight in the first game for Phoenix since the All Star break. The Raptors are fired up after a loss right before the All Star break ended their 15-game winning streak. In that defeat, Toronto was held to just 91 points. Keep in mind, in their prior 15 games the Raptors scored an average of 121.2 points per game. The Suns enter this game having averaged 111.2 points per game their last 10 road games. There were just 3 unders for Toronto during their 15 game winning streak. I look for the Raptors to get right on back with a win here out of the break and, as per usual throughout their recent winning streak, the game goes over the total. The Suns are rejuvenated with better health and love to run and gun. The Raptors will happily oblige a fast-paced game here as well. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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02-20-20 | Bucks v. Pistons OVER 223.5 | Top | 126-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons are in a state of flux but don't expect any mercy from the Bucks in this one. Milwaukee has dominated Detroit including last season's sweep in the first round of the playoffs. The Bucks welcome back Giannis Antetokounmpo after he missed the last two games before the All Star break. Also, Milwaukee did lose their final game before the break so there will be no let up in this game no matter the score. The Bucks want to put a beating on their next opponent after a rare loss. That said, the Pistons are the victim by default. I do like the fact that Detroit scored 108 points in regulation time in their final game before the All Star break. The Pistons have also averaged 108 points per game this season. However, the Bucks are 13 point favorites here with good reason and a road rout is likely. I don't trust laying the huge points here with Milwaukee as double digit road favorites as double digit road favorites in the NBA aren't a big favorite of mine! But I do trust the Bucks not to take their foot off the gas and this could turn into a very wild high-scoring game as a result. These teams tend to get a little testy with each other and that means plenty of free throws too. The last meeting here in Detroit was quite a rough and tumble affair and that one totaled 230 points. This one should get into that range as well. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams in the Motor City. The over is 7-3 in the Pistons last 10 home games. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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02-12-20 | Hawks v. Cavs OVER 232.5 | Top | 105-127 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:05 ET - The Cavaliers attempted 95 shots in Monday's home loss to the Clippers but had a horrific shooting night. Certainly the pace was there for much more than the 92 points they had to show for it on the offensive end. Look for Cleveland to bounce back strong here. as they now face the Hawks instead of the Clips. Both the Cavs and Hawks have made some personnel changes but that really won't have much of an impact on these teams and the way they play until after the All Star break. There just isn't enough time now to make big changes. That being said, I look for this game to have a very fast tempo with plenty of points. Note that the over is 11-0 with 1 push in the last 12 meetings between these teams. Also, the over is 8-0 in the last 8 meeting between these teams at Cleveland. The Hawks enter this game on a 12-3 run to the over their last 15 games. Prior to the Cavs loss to the Clippers staying under the total, the Cavaliers were on an 10-1-1 run to the over in their prior 12 home games. That over trending at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse resumes here. These are two of the worst teams in the NBA and that is particularly true on the defensive end. With the pace they have each been playing with coupled with a lack of success on the defensive end, we should see plenty of points in what is the final game before the All-Star break for these teams. They'll go all out and push the pace hard throughout. It has been the "m.o." of both these teams for a long time now. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards OVER 229.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #577 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are coming off an embarrassing 4th quarter performance at home against the Grizzlies on Sunday. That collapse in the final stanza allowed Memphis to pull away late as it resulted in Washington only scoring 99 points in a game they should have scored 120. Look for the Wizards to make up for it here. This should be a wild high-scoring game played at a frenetic pace as Washington was on a 7-1 run to the over in their 8 games preceding the low-scoring loss to Memphis. As for Chicago, they enter this game on a perfect 7-0 run to the over their last 7 games. The Bulls have allowed 126.3 points per game their last 4 games. The Wizards are allowing 120.4 points per game on the season! 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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02-10-20 | Kings v. Bucks OVER 227 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Sacramento Kings @ 8:05 ET - Non-conference match-ups tend to lack defensive intensity and this particular one has an incredible run of overs as a result. Keep in mind, non-conference foes meet only twice a year so it is tough to build up a lot of animosity toward one another. Games can tend to be a little more free-flowing with plenty of offense. This one has been nothing short of amazing in that regard as the over is a perfect 14-0 in the last 14 meetings between these teams. Considering that factor as well as the fact that the Kings are 4-0 to the over the last 4 times they have been a dog of 6 or more points, you can see why I like the over here. Overall Sacramento has shown sharp trending to the over the past 5 weeks. The Bucks are 3-0 to the over their last 3 home games against Western Conference opponents. Milwaukee averages 121.5 points per game at home this season. Sacramento has averaged 115.7 points per game their past 7 games. Look for this to fly over the total and it supported by combined trending of 21-0 to the over as noted above. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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02-09-20 | Jazz v. Rockets OVER 232 | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA TV Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz @ 7:05 ET - Off an ugly loss at Phoenix by a count of 127-91, the Rockets will respond here at home. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 the last dozen times that Houston was off a loss by a margin of 15 or more points in a game in which they were a favorite. Indeed that was embarrassing and the Rockets will explode with plenty of offense here at home. Yes, Utah has revenge against Houston from last year's playoff exit as well as this year's home loss to the Rockets. However, the fact is that the Jazz struggle to slow down the Rockets. Not only that, Utah has been getting involved in higher-scoring games now for many weeks. This is not the old plodding, defensive-minded Jazz we were use to seeing. Utah is off a high-scoring win over Portland. That went over the total at home. How about recent road games? The over is 7-1 in the last 8 road games involving the Jazz. Given the situation, look for that trend to continue here! 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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02-08-20 | Nets v. Raptors OVER 222.5 | Top | 118-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Divisional Blowout - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #535 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:35 ET - The Raptors are red hot. With their win at Indiana last night, Toronto has won 13 straight games. This is a tough spot for them however as they are now in a back to back and Brooklyn comes into this game with plenty of confidence as they have won 4 of 5 games. When teams are confident they tend to shoot the ball well and, of course, the Nets also like to run and gun. The Nets will look to take advantage of the Raptors in a back to back spot as Brooklyn has had two days of rest heading into this game. That means we should see a good pace to this game and I feel the total is too low when you consider how hot each of these teams are. The Raptors have scored an average of 120.2 points per game during their 13-game winning streak. The Nets have scored an average of 122.6 points per game in their last 5 games. None of these games for either team were OT games either. In other words, just great pace and solid shooting and I look for more of the same here on Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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02-07-20 | Pistons v. Thunder OVER 216 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #517 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Detroit Pistons @ 8:05 ET - This total dropped big this morning when it was announced that the Pistons would be without a few players. News flash folks...none of the guys on the injury report played in Detroit's game versus Phoenix on Wednesday and the Pistons scored 116 points in that win. Certainly Detroit is a bad team and they have issues but they can score some points and, at the same time, their defense so often leaves a lot to be desired! That said, Oklahoma City is a huge double digit favorite here with good reason and the Thunder should pile up the points but don't be surprised when Pistons players like Drumond, Jackson, Wood, and Galloway have big scoring games again tonight just like they did against the Suns. The Thunder enter this game red hot as they have won 8 of their last 9 games. Oklahoma City has averaged 118 points per game in those 8 victories. I am looking for a 120-105 type game here and that crushes this total by nearly a double digit margin. Grab the value. The over is 14-5 in Detroit's last 19 games. Before their non-covering win versus Cleveland Wednesday stayed under the total, the Thunder had seen the over go 5-1 in their last 6 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. That over trending resumes here. 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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02-05-20 | Hawks v. Wolves OVER 236.5 | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Ugly Beauty - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #579 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Atlanta Hawks @ 8:05 ET - Sometimes the ugliest games produce the prettiest results when it comes to sports wagering. That is what I expect here with an easy over. The Timberwolves are favored by a half dozen points in this game despite having lost a dozen straight games. How can that be? Well is the road-adverse Hawks that are in town and I expect Minnesota to put the hammer down early in this one against Atlanta. However, the Hawks (especially with Trae Young in the mix - probable here) can score plenty of points! The Wolves will be happy to run and gun and look to run Atlanta right out of the arena. Both teams are woeful defensively and we should see an absolute track meet here in Minneapolis tonight. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. The Hawks are 9-2 to the over in their past 11 games. The Wolves have allowed 126 points per game in their past 3 home games. Atlanta has allowed 131 points per game in its last 3 road games! This game should get well into the 240s and might even hit the 250s as it is simply the style these two teams play. The Timberwolves are desperate for a win and will push the tempo all night long in this one to impose their will at home. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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02-03-20 | Warriors v. Wizards OVER 235 | Top | 125-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off a rare low-scoring win. The over was on a 5-0 run in Washington's games prior to the tight win over Brooklyn. Now the Wizards host a Warriors team that also is off a win and which also has been getting involved in plenty of high-scoring games of late. Golden State games are on a 5-1 run to the over and the Warriors have averaged 116 points per game in their past 4 road games. Golden State has allowed an average of 122.2 points per game in their past 6 games. The Wizards have allowed 124.5 points per game in their past 10 games. That is why, despite the big total posted on this game, it will prove to not be big enough. A match-up of two bad teams, but both off wins, means a drop-off in defensive intensity here. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams and that trend continues here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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02-02-20 | Nuggets v. Pistons OVER 215.5 | Top | 123-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #535 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Denver Nuggets @ 12:35 ET - This is a bad scheduling spot for the Nuggets. The result should be plenty of points. I don't expect a lot of defensive intensity from Denver here. They are off a huge win (at Milwaukee) Friday. The Bucks are the #1 team in the NBA this season. On deck for the Nuggets are divisional battles versus Portland and at Utah. In other words, this is an ideal "flat spot" for Denver. Normally that would mean to fade the Nuggets but there is no way I can fade them with a team playing as poorly as Detroit. The Pistons enter this game on an 0-5 SU/ATS run. What I do expect here is plenty of offense. Detroit is off a rare low-scoring home game. Prior to the ugly home loss to Toronto, Pistons games were on a 14-4 run to the over. Detroit had averaged 114.1 points per game their 9 previous games. The Nuggets enter this game having scored an average of 115 points per game their past 10 road games. This total opened up at a 218 and has dropped to 215 as of early game day morning. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move but, as always, it is not without reason. Per the analysis above, a bit of a sub-par defensive game expected from Denver here but they can (and will) come roaring back on the offensive end against a bad Pistons team. That helps send this one flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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02-01-20 | Nets v. Wizards OVER 239 | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #521 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Brooklyn Nets @ 8:05 ET - Neither team known for its defense. Bradley Beal currently red hot for the Wizards. The Nets Kyrie Irving is off a game in which he scored 54 points last night. Also, in his most recent road game, Irving tallied 45 points. Even though this is a back to back for Brooklyn, they were able to rest guys thanks to winning by a blowout margin. Irving only had to play 32 minutes and no other Net played more than 30 minutes. That sets this one up well for Brooklyn to still have plenty left in the tank! That spells trouble for a Wizards team that has allowed an average of 137 points per game in its last 3 games. But Washington certainly scores well at home and the Nets have allowed 117 points per game their last 9 games. This total may seem "big" at 239 but folks you have to look at the numbers and Beal is "feeling it" right now for the Wizards and the Nets are coming off a huge win last night and are certainly "feeling it" too with their shots right now. Brooklyn has now scored more than 120 points in 3 of its last 4 games. More of the same expected here. The over is 7-2 in the Nets last 9 games. The over is 5-0 in the Wizards last 5 games. Those trends continue in DC on Saturday. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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01-31-20 | Bulls v. Nets OVER 219.5 | Top | 118-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Chicago Bulls @ 7:35 ET - The over is 6-2 in the Nets last 8 games. Brooklyn is averaging 110 points per game this season but also allows 112 points per game. Speaking of sub-par defense, the Bulls are allowing 110 points and 47.3% from the field in their road games this season. The over is on a 3-0 run in Chicago's games. Granted the Bulls most recent game did involve overtime. However, prior to that one Chicago had allowed an average of 110 points per game over their past 7 games away from home. The key to the over here is that the Nets are happy to play at a fast pace at home and the Bulls have been scoring well when facing teams with a losing record. There has been only one exception for Chicago in recent weeks when facing a team with a losing record and that is when they had a horrific shooting effort at home against the Kings. Other than that, in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record, the Bulls have averaged 115.6 points per game! You can see why I am expecting both teams to eclipse the 110 mark in this one and that will send this one flying over the total. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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01-30-20 | Hornets v. Wizards OVER 227.5 | Top | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #571 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - The Hornets tend to play lower-scoring games and the Wizards tend to play higher-scoring games. Something has to give here. I feel strongly that Washington, at home and off back to back losses, is going to dictate the pace here. That will mean plenty of points in this one. Note that Charlotte was happy to be coming off a win but certainly not happy about being held under 100 points. They do have fresh legs because of their recent road trip to Paris, France to take on the Bucks. Though that resulted in a lot of travel for the Hornets it also has resulted in plenty of rest. Charlotte's offensive production is likely to enjoy a huge uptick here as they have averaged 118.2 points per game in their last 6 games against Washington! The Wizards, in regulation time of their last 4 games, have scored an average of 126.5 points per game. The over is 4-0 in Washington's last 4 games. The Hornets are well rested and no that they can afford to be in a higher-paced game here and get plenty of good looks against a Wizards team that is one of the worst in the league defensively. The result is plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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01-29-20 | Grizzlies v. Knicks OVER 224 | Top | 127-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:35 ET - Both teams are off games yesterday in which they allowed less than 100 points. Memphis held Denver to just 96 points in a big win over the Nuggets and so I am fully expecting a more lax defensive effort here after that big home win. As for the Knicks, though it was surprising they allowed just 97 at Charlotte last night it was also surprising that they scored just 92 points. Look for a huge bounce back on the offensive end now that they are back home for tonight's game. New York averaged 111 points per game in their past two home games. The Knicks also are allowing 112 points per game this season and the Grizzlies are allowing 116 points per game on the season. After last night's unusual results, look for normalcy to return tonight. Memphis has allowed 112 points or more in each of its last 6 road games. The over is 7-3 in the Grizzlies last 10 non-conference games. The over is 4-2 in the last 6 road games for Memphis. More of the same expected here after last night's unusual results for each team. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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01-27-20 | Cavs v. Pistons OVER 220 | Top | 115-100 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #527 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - Both teams enter off losses by a double digit margin in Saturday's action. The Pistons game did go to OT but Detroit already was on a hot run in terms of "overs" prior to that game. The over is now 14-4 in the Pistons last 18 games. I like looking for overs when two struggling teams are matched up. Neither team has been too focused on the defensive end. Note that Cleveland's games are on a 10-3 run to the over! When these teams are matched up the over is now a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 meetings. Pistons home games are on an 8-1 run to the over. The Cavaliers over is 8-3 when they enter a game on a losing streak of 7 or more games. The over is 12-4 this season when Cleveland enters a game off a home loss. The over is 11-1 this season in Detroit's home games with a posted total of 220 points or more. The Pistons have averaged 116 points per game their last 7 games. They should get even more than that here (against a struggling team) and this game should get into the 230 range and yet is currently in the 220 range as of early Monday morning. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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01-24-20 | Rockets v. Wolves OVER 233.5 | Top | 131-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #573 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - A big total but definitely justified. The Rockets are off a big win versus the Nuggets and have a rematch at Denver on deck too. After holding the Nuggets to 105 points don't be surprised if Houston suffers a bit of a letdown on defense in this one. The Rockets certainly aren't known for defense in the first place! The same holds true for Minnesota. The Wolves have allowed 114.6 points per game this season and the Rockets have allowed 114 points per game this season. Minnesota has allowed an average of 127 points per game in its last 3 games against Houston. The Rockets most recent visit here stayed under the total but that was preceded by a 5-1 run to the over in meetings between these teams in Minneapolis. These teams have jacked up an average of 87 three pointers per game in their last 3 meetings and, of course, that lends itself well to plenty of points. The Timberwolves are fired up as they have lost 7 straight games and also have not been shooting well of late. Even with that, the over is still 7-3 in Minnesota's last 10 games and I am expecting a bounce back here in a game in which the Rockets will absolutely be willing to run and gun throughout this one. The over is 5-2 this season when Houston enters a game having lost 2 of their 3 prior games. The over is 23-12 when the Wolves are a home dog. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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01-23-20 | Wizards v. Cavs OVER 232 | Top | 124-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #555 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Wizards are off an OT loss at Miami last night. However, when you look at minutes played, Washington actually spread the workload quite well. You don't see excessively heavy minutes for anyone really and, in essence, that makes this a normal back to back situation. The over is 22-12 (including 4-1 this season) when the Wizards are playing the 2nd game of a back to back. As for the Cavaliers, they are off an embarrassing home loss on Monday in which they had a horrific shooting night and scored just 86 points. Note that the over is 10-4 this season when Cleveland is off a home loss. Also, prior to that under, the Cavaliers had been 8-2 to the over so far this month. The Cavs are fired up after their embarrassing performance against an equally bad Knicks team. Their game plan tonight, coming in rested and with the Wizards in the 2nd night of a back to back, is to try and run Washington right out of the arena. Of course the Wizards do like to play fast so the result is a game with a ton of points that will look like a track meet with guys running up and down the floor and trying to get quick open shots in transition. Yesterday's Washington game had a total of 229 and that flew over the total (in regulation too) and plus the Wizards entered that game having gone 8-2 to the over this season in road games with a posted total of 230 or more. Tonight's Cavaliers game falls into that category and I look for another high-scoring match-up. Washington plays this game with revenge from a home loss to the Cavs and the over is 8-4 this season when playing with same season revenge. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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01-22-20 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 222 | Top | 106-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #531 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons total burned me Monday at Washington when the teams had a great first half but then both teams struggled to score in the second half. With Detroit back at home for this one, I expect to get immediate payback here as they host the Kings. Note that the Pistons are 5-1 to the over in their last 6 home games. Overall Detroit was on an 11-3 run to the over before their ugly low-scoring loss to the Wizards Monday. As for Sacramento, they enter this game having recorded overs in 5 straight games overall. Also, in Kings road games, the over is on a 5-1 run. Both these teams struggle defensively but have also been scoring well of late. It is the perfect recipe for a non-conference match-up with very little defensive intensity to fly over the total. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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01-20-20 | Pistons v. Wizards OVER 232.5 | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons @ 2:05 ET - The over is on an 11-3 run in Pistons games. Detroit scored 136 points at Atlanta on Saturday. The Wizards allowed 140 points at Toronto on Friday. Now two teams that are both content to play at a fast pace and that focus very little on the defensive end are matched up in what should be a track meet. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. Washington averages 116 points per game at home this season but the Wizards also are allowing 120 points per game. That is why, though this total is a big one, I have no hesitation in grabbing the over in this match-up! The line is right around a pick'em in this game and in a match-up where the Wizards have a chance to win it generally means to expect a ton of points because this team simply does not play defense! In games with a posted total of 230 or more points, the over is 13-6 in Wizards games this season. Washington is playing this game with road loss revenge and that is a situation that has seen the over go 11-3 this season. Detroit is 4-1 to the over this season when off a game in which they scored 120 points or more. Indeed, expect a track meet style of play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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01-19-20 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 221 | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #567 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Miami Heat @ 3:05 ET - The Spurs are off back to back losses and they continue to respond off losses with more offense rather than defense. San Antonio games are 8-1 to the over the last 9 times they've been off a loss. Also, when off a loss by 6 or less points this season the Spurs are 8-0 to the over (1 push). In non-conference action this season, San Antonio's games are 13-4 to the over with one push. The Spurs enter this game have averaged 117.5 points per game their last 10 games. The Heat have been red hot on the offensive end and have averaged 116.5 points per game their last 6 games. Both of these teams, overall, have trended over the total this season. They just met in Miami on Wednesday and that game stayed under the total but that has been the exception, rather than the norm, for both of these teams of late. Heat road games with a total posted at 220 points or more are 4-1 to the over. Miami's games against teams with a losing record this season have gone 13-5 to the over. You can tell by the line (roughly pick'em) on this game that it is expected to be a tight battle. That said, I have no hesitation in expecting each of these teams to get to at least 110 points here and, of course, that would result in an over in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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01-18-20 | 76ers v. Knicks OVER 220 | Top | 90-87 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks will be in "run and gun" mode as they are at home and catching the Sixers in the 2nd night of a back to back situation. Philadelphia allowed just 89 points in their home win over the Bulls last night. However, Philly used a lot of defensive energy in holding Chicago to just 18 points in the 4th quarter and to 24 points or less in each of the other 3 quarters as well. Sometimes a team needs a "night off" from the defensive intensity even when they're playing. In other words, the 76ers still have another game to be played tonight but don't be surprised if it is a much more open-floor affair after last night's grinder game with the Bulls. The Sixers have allowed an average of 112 points per game in their last 5 road games. The Knicks have allowed an average of 124 points per game their last 8 games. 76ers Saturday games are 6-2 to the over this season. New York is off an embarrassing home loss to the Suns on Thursday and they are 4-2 to the over this season when off a home loss by a double digit margin. Plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in New York |
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01-17-20 | Wizards v. Raptors OVER 228.5 | Top | 111-140 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Total of the Year - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA defensively as they are allowing 120 points per game on the season. The Raptors are a big favorite here with good reason and they won't take their foot off the gas in this one. Toronto's games are 7-2 to the over this season when they are a home favorite in a range of 6.5 to 12 points. Washington's games are 12-4-1 to the over this season when they are playing against a team with a winning record. Also, the Wizards are off back to back non-covers and that is a situation that has seen the over go 7-0-1 in Washington's game this season. When these teams get together it has been a track meet in recent match-ups and I am expecting another one tonight with plenty of run and gun action. Will gladly test the perfect trends noted above. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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01-15-20 | Pistons v. Celtics OVER 218 | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #503 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Detroit Pistons @ 7:05 ET - The Celtics are known for being a solid team defensively. They have earned that reputation. But sometimes that helps lead to value going the other way when certain situations arise and that is precisely what we have here. It is hard for Boston to be be excited about facing a slumping Pistons team when they have a huge game tomorrow night at Milwaukee! Undoubtedly these are the types of games where the superior team - in this case, the Celtics - has a drop-off in defensive intensity. That said, don't be surprised when the Pistons score very well in this game. However, Detroit leaves much to be desired on the defensive end. That said, I look for a solid over in this match-up. Overall, 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams have gone over the total. Also, 3 of the last 4 times they have met in Boston, the games have gone over the total. The over is 9-3 in the Pistons last dozen games. The Celtics have averaged 119 points per game in their past 4 home games. Look for them to get at least that here and for the Pistons to eclipse the century mark as well and, as a result, this flies over the total. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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01-14-20 | Rockets v. Grizzlies OVER 238 | Top | 110-121 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #575 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Houston Rockets @ 8:05 ET - These are two of the fastest teams in the league in terms of possessions per game. The opening total of 238 will scare many away but the fact this game should be an absolute track meet going both ways. Memphis is a very young team and they want to play fast and look to score plenty of points in transition. Of course the Rockets are one of the top teams in the league for efficiency on offense. That said, I have no hesitation in expecting these teams to combine to average 60 or more points per quarter in this one. Memphis is playing with a lot of confidence thanks to a 5-game winning streak. The Rockets sit atop of the Southwest Division standings and enter this game having rolled to big point totals in 4 of their last 5 games. They're looking to make up for that one dud (on the road) by coming up with a huge effort in their first road game since then. In the other 4 games the Rockets have averaged 127 points per game. As for Memphis, they have averaged 127 points per game during their current 5-game winning streak. You can see why I would not be surprised to see this game get into the 255 range. The over is 4-2 in Houston's last 6 games. The over is 12-4 in the Grizzlies last 16 games. Look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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01-12-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets OVER 220.5 | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 53 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #553 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 8:05 ET - Paul George is out for this game but of course that is factored into the side and total. Look for a higher scoring game than many are anticipating here as the Nuggets are off a home loss yesterday to Cleveland. Of course that is in an inexcusable loss and I look for Denver to respond by looking to run the Goerge-less Clippers right of the arena tonight. The Nuggets will push the pace and, prior to back to back unders (including yesterday just barely staying under) Denver had gone over the total in 6 straight games and 11 of last 13. Los Angeles. prior to their low-scoring win over Golden State Friday, had gone over the total in 3 straight games. The Clippers have allowed an average of 122 points per game in their last two visits to Denver and the Nuggets are only a 2 point favorite in this match-up. Would a 122-120 Denver win surprise me here? Not in the least! In other words I feel this total is set too low and I look for others to again step up for LA (like they did versus GS) with George being out. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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01-07-20 | Thunder v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #555 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:35 ET - Both teams in a back to back spot and coming off losses yesterday. The Thunder gave up 120 points at Philadelphia but did score 113 and should get at least that here tonight. As for the Nets, they were at Orlando and struggled but I expect a bounce back tonight at home after being held to just 89 points by the Magic last night. This was an embarrassing effort for a Brooklyn team which has averaged 110 points per game this season. The Nets should get at least that tonight after last night's poor effort but the Thunder are favored here for a reason. In other words, based on simple math you can see why I am expecting this game to get well into the 220s. The over was 3-0 in the Nets last 3 games before last night's snooze-fest at Orlando. Now playing at home and facing a Thunder team that is also happy to play at a faster tempo, look for the pace of this game to be conducive to a high-scoring battle. 10* OVER the total in Brooklyn |
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01-06-20 | Nets v. Magic OVER 210 | Top | 89-101 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Brooklyn Nets @ 7:05 ET - This total's first move saw it drop a couple points from its opener and I feel too much weight is being given to Orlando by the betting markets. The fact is that, although the Magic tend to play lower-scoring grinder type games, the Nets "average" game this season totals 222.5 points this season. Also, Brooklyn enters this game having gone over the total in 3 straight games and 5 of their last 7. The Nets last 3 games have seen the totals average 221 points per contest (adjusted for OT in the Wolves game). Brooklyn has allowed 121 points or more in each of its past 2 games. Orlando is off B2B unders but that had a lot to do with facing Miami and Utah. Both these teams are better defensively than the Nets. I look for this game to be played with a better tempo and Brooklyn - losers of 5 straight - will be working hard to push the pace in this one. The over is 4-1 in Nets last 5 January games. 3 of the last 4 games between these teams totaled 215 or more and this one, given all of the above, should too. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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12-26-19 | Wizards v. Pistons OVER 229.5 | Top | 102-132 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Thursday OVER the total in Detroit Pistons vs Washington Wizards @ 7:05 ET - The Pistons are mired in a 5-game losing streak both SU and ATS. During this 5 game stretch Detroit has allowed an average of 120.6 points per game. The Wizards have allowed 121.7 points per game on the season! That is why this total opened up at 233.5 (which still wasn't high enough in my opinion). Now with the total dropping to as low as 229.5 points early this morning, I won't hesitate to step in on the over in this one. The last two meetings between these teams in Detroit have both gone over the total and have averaged 242.5 points per game! Overall, the Wizards enter this game with the over having gone 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Pistons enter this home game with the over having gone 7-2 in their last 9 games as a host. With both teams in action on Monday, that means they come into this game rested but NOT rusty as they have had just 2 days off between games. Both teams will be ready to go here and I again expect a ton of points in this match-up. The over is an incredible 16-6 this season when the Wizards are an underdog. The over is 5-1 this season when the Pistons are at home and the posted total on their game is 220 or more. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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12-25-19 | Celtics v. Raptors OVER 212.5 | Top | 118-102 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #523 Wednesday 10* OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Boston Celtics @ 12:05 ET - The Celtics most recent road game stayed under the total by the slimmest of margins! Prior to that the over was a perfect 3-0 in Boston's 3 previous road games. The Raptors enter this game on a perfect 3-0 streak to the over. Toronto is 8-4 to the over in their past dozen home games. The Raptors last half dozen games have averaged 117 points per game. The Celtics last eleven games have averaged 112.6 points per game. I know in an Atlantic Division battle we should see a little more defense but you can see why I going with the over here based on the above. Also, the over is 4-1 this season when the Celtics are off a blowout win by a margin of 20 or more points. The over is 5-0 this season when Toronto is revenging a loss in which they allowed 110 or more points. With the Raptors having lost at Boston in October it is payback time here and I am looking for plenty of points. They score well at home (11-5 to the over this season) but won't be able to stop the Celtics. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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12-20-19 | Grizzlies v. Cavs OVER 223 | Top | 107-114 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
East-West Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - After opening up at a 224 we're going to see some downward movement on this total. The betting markets are wondering how the odds makers can "screw up" and set this total so high. But I will tell you why we have a big total here. Both the Grizz and the Cavs are having rough seasons but are playing with more confidence of late. Both teams are willing to push the tempo here and neither team is known for their defense. Look for a shootout in this one. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the Grizzlies last 4 games. Memphis is scoring an average of 117 points per game past 7 games. The Grizz have allowed 116 points per game their past 7 games. Memphis is off a loss but had won 4 of 5 prior to that defeat. The Cavaliers are off their 2nd win in 4 games and feeling a little more confident as a result. Though that victory stayed under the total it ended a 3-0 streak to the over for Cleveland. The Cavs have had one recent OT game (at San Antonio) but even subtracting out the OT points, the stats are impressive if you're looking for an over tonight! Cleveland has allowed an average of 118 points per game, not including OT points, in its past 7 games. The Cavaliers had averaged 108.5 points per game in their 4 games prior to the low-scoring win over Charlotte Wednesday. That game died late in terms of scoring. But this one won't...not with high-scoring Memphis in town. Non-conference battles have a tendency to be played with a little less defensive intensity and neither one of these teams likes to "D up" much anyway! 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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12-18-19 | Hornets v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 98-100 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #517 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:05 ET - Two bad defenses matched up here and I like the value we're getting here with the total having dropped a little from its opener as well. The Hornets are in the 2nd game of a back to back and they are allowing 111 points per game this season while the Cavaliers are allowing 114 points per game this season. Cleveland has one OT win in recent games but other than that it has been nothing but losing. A big reason for that is the Cavs don't get defensive stops. Even removing the OT period from the equation, Cleveland has allowed 121.3 points per game its last 6 games! As for Charlotte, they had a recent ugly low-scoring win at Chicago but in their other half-dozen recent games the Hornets have gone 3-3 and allowed an average of 107 points per game. Given the season to date averages and recent averages in terms of the points these two teams have been allowing, you can see why I am expecting this game to get into the 220s. In terms of technical support for this play, the over is a perfect 3-0 the last 3 times Charlotte has played the 2nd game of a back to back. The over is 9-5 this season when the Hornets are a road dog. The over is 6-2 this season when Cleveland enters a game having allowed 105 points or more in 3 consecutive games. The Cavs are off an ugly loss and the over is 49-28 when the Cavaliers are off a game in which they allowed 115 points or more. With Charlotte having tired legs on defense after last night's upset home win, and the Cavs continued defensive ineptitude, this game should fly over the total. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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12-13-19 | Pacers v. Hawks OVER 222.5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #535 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Hawks vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks have been an over machine. The over is 15-3 in their past 18 games. The Pacers are off a high-scoring win versus Boston. Off a big win against a strong team, this is the type of letdown game where you're likely to see Indiana lacking a bit in defensive intensity. The Pacers have allowed 108 points per game their last 11 games. You can see why, especially given the situation, I would not be surprised to see the Hawks put up 110 points here. Keep in mind, Atlanta is particularly hungry because they are playing at home for just the 3rd time in about a 3-week span. The issue for the Hawks, again, will be their defense, so the Pacers getting into the 120 range here certainly would not be a surprise in the least. That puts this one into the 230 range and I like the value here with this total in the low 220s. The over is 6-3 this season when the Pacers are off a home win and, again, that was a very satisfying one for Indiana. The over is perfect 13-0 this season when the Hawks enter a game after losing 5 or 6 of their past 7 games. Look for that trend to remain perfect here as plenty of points expected in this one. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta |
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12-07-19 | Pacers v. Knicks OVER 207.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Indiana Pacers @ 7:35 ET - After having to battle in a divisional match-up with a hard-nosed Pistons team yesterday, the Pacers will now take advantage of facing the porous defense of the Knicks in this one. Additionally, I look for New York to respond on the offensive end here after being held to just 92 points on their home floor by the Nuggets on Thursday which followed a similarly poor effort at home against the powerful Bucks too. That sets this one up well for plenty of points. New York has allowed an average of 130.5 points per game their past two games. The Pacers are allowing an average of 108 points per game in the first four games of this lengthy road trip. The over was on a 5-1 run in Indiana's last 6 games before their last two match-up stayed just under the total. This one makes up for those in a big way. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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12-06-19 | Magic v. Cavs OVER 211.5 | Top | 93-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #511 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Cavs were held to just 94 points in their most recent game but, in typical contrarian fashion, I am playing their very next game to go over the total. Cleveland, prior to the ugly home loss to Detroit, had scored at least 100 points in 7 straight games and had averaged scoring 105 points per game during this stretch. The Cavaliers have allowed at least 100 points in 10 straight games. In fact they have allowed an average of 118.6 points per game during this rough stretch. Taking on a Magic team that scored 116 points against them last week won't help matters for the Cavs struggling defense. Also, Orlando scored 116 without Aaron Gordon in the lineup. He is back now from his ankle injury and Gordon scored 32 points in Wednesday's big win for Orlando over Phoenix. Now the Magic have won 4 of 5 games and have averaged 118 points per game in those 4 victories. The over is 9-3 in Orlando's last dozen games and I look for another high-scoring game here as the over improves to 6-3 in the Cavaliers last 9 games. Cavs will respond with stronger game tonight after being embarrassed and scoring just 94 points at home on Tuesday but they won't be able to stop the hot-shooting Magic as they are red hot from all the floor right now. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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12-04-19 | Warriors v. Hornets OVER 209.5 | Top | 91-106 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #557 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Golden State Warriors @ 7:05 ET - With the Warriors off a game in which they scored a season-low 79 points Monday and the Hornets off a game in which they were held to just 39 points in the first half Monday, it may seem enticing to take the under in this match-up. However, in typical contrarian fashion I am backing the over in this one as it is actually those low-scoring results that are leading to excellent value with this total. Both teams are determined to bounce back on the offensive end in this one and will be willing to push the pace all game long. Golden State was averaging 108 points per game their past 11 games on the road before that awful effort against the Hawks. Charlotte is averaging 109 points per game at home this season. The over is 9-5 this season when the Warriors enter a game having lost 3 of their last 4 games. The over is 6-3 this season when the Hornets enter a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Two teams hungry to bounce back here and you'll see that first-hand here with good tempo and plenty of scoring in this match-up. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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12-03-19 | Magic v. Wizards OVER 226.5 | Top | 127-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Wizards vs Orlando Magic @ 7:05 ET - The Magic are off a rare win and the over is 5-1 the last 6 times when Orlando enters a game off a SU victory. Though known as a lower scoring team, the Magic saw their first meeting with Washington this season fly over the total as it reached 246 points! The Wizards enter this contest off allowing 150 points to the Clippers in Los Angeles over the weekend. Washington continues to ignore the importance of playing defense as they simply try to just outscore teams. That may work against the Magic but I am not playing the Wizards as I just can not trust them to get defensive stops. The value that is created here by the way this one should play out is the situational value that is clearly available with the total in Washington. The over is now 7-3 in the Wizards past 10 games. The over is also 4-1 in Orlando's last 5 road games. With the Magic off a rare win and trending over when in that situation this season, don't look for much defense in this match-up as the Wizards will simply try to again run and gun their way past Orlando. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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11-29-19 | 76ers v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | Top | 101-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #561 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 7:35 ET - The Knicks are off an ugly loss at Toronto where they were held to 98 points. New York head coach Fizdale was talking more about the lack of execution and hesitation on offense that was plaguing the Knicks in that game. In other words, it was not so much about the fact that New York gave up 126 points but the fact they scored just 98 points that has his attention. I am looking for a high-scoring game here. These teams put up 213 points when they recently met in Philly and the Knicks should score better here at home. We've got a low total to work with because of the market move here - first numbers globally posted on this game were in the 210.5 range. Particularly after the drop on this total I feel we have great value here. The Knicks are averaging 102 points per game this season and the 76ers are favored by as much as 8 points in this game as of early game day morning. A 110-102 Philly win gets us well above the posted total here. The over is a long-term 24-12 when the Sixers are a road favorite in a range of 6.5 to 12 points. The Knicks have trended under this season but there has been an over-adjustment on this total in my opinion and keep in mind New York's last 7 meetings with the Sixers have all totaled at least 208 points! 6 of the 7 totaled at least 213 points and this one should as well. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-27-19 | Wolves v. Spurs OVER 229 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #545 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves @ 8:35 ET - The over is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Also, each of the last 4 meetings in San Antonio have gone over the total. Minnesota has scored 120 points or more in 6 of its 8 road games this season! The Spurs are off a home game in which they were held to 104 points by the Lakers but consider that Los Angeles has been one of the best teams in the league this season and has already frustrated the Spurs twice this season at San Antonio. Against the rest of the NBA, the Spurs home games have seen them average 117 points per game. San Antonio is a small favorite in this game and there is reason to believe that each team will be in the 120 range in this one based on the above as well as their history of getting involved in shootouts. The Timberwolves have knocked down 14 or more threes in 3 of their last 4 games while the Spurs have knocked down 10 or more threes in 3 of their last 4 games. They hit 10 of 25 against the Lakers and had knocked down 12 in 2 of their 3 prior games - all on the road. With the Spurs at home and shooting better and the high-flying Wolves in town, this game should feature a ton of points. as the over goes to 7-0 the last 7 times these two teams have squared off. 10* OVER the total in San Antonio |
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11-21-19 | Blazers v. Bucks UNDER 231.5 | Top | 129-137 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #524 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 8:05 ET - The Blazers are so banged up right now that they are going to struggle to score well here. However, they got blasted and gave up 143 points in their last visit to Milwaukee. They have been reminded of that heading into this contest. I feel very strongly that the Trail Blazers are going to play some tough D in this one! The Bucks are off an easier than the final score looks 135-127 win last night at Atlanta. That means this is the 2nd night of a back to back plus travel is involved. Milwaukee absolutely should win this game handily but I don't see them wanting to turn this into a track meet given the situation. This is the Bucks 5th game in 8 nights. This is the Blazers 4th game in 6 nights. Given all of the above factors, this total is shaded too high in the 230 range! When the Trail Blazers enter a game having allowed 110 points or more in 4 straight games, the UNDER is PERFECT with 5 straight wins when in this situation. When the Bucks are off a game in which they scored 122 points or more this season, the UNDER has cashed in 4 of the last 5 times in this situation. 10* UNDER the total in Milwaukee |
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11-20-19 | Knicks v. 76ers OVER 213.5 | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #501 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks @ 7:05 ET - The opening line on this game had Philly -13 with a total of 213. Assuming the odds makers are correct in their assessment that means the forecast here is Philadelphia 113, New York 100. Giving consideration to that, I love the over in this match-up. The reason is because I feel there is adequate support to believe the Knicks will do better than 100 points here and, at the same time, the Sixers are ready for an offensive explosion at home. Philadelphia has had a tough road-heavy schedule to begin this season so they are excited about this opportunity to finally play again at home and improve on their perfect 4-0 mark. First, about the Knicks, they have scored 102 points or more in 6 of their 7 road games this season! In those 6 games New York has averaged 105.3 points per game. The 76ers had averaged 112.7 points per game at home in their first 3 games before a rare dud in their 4th one. But they are also finally healthy again with all hands on deck for this one plus Tobias Harris is heating up. That means plenty of scoring options with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons in addition to two guys each averaging 15 points per game in Al Horford and Josh Richardson. Both the Knicks and Sixers enter this game having had yesterday off and also having tomorrow off as well. There will be no hesitation to run and gun here and I expect plenty of points. The 76ers were on a 6-2 run to the over before their most recent game stayed under the total. Look for the Knicks to get to 105 here which will put Philly at about 120 in this one. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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11-19-19 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 114-95 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #577 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors @ 8:05 ET - I am aware of the Warriors injuries but lets not forget that Golden State is allowing 119 points per game this season and the Grizzlies are allowing 118.8 points per game this season. Neither one of these teams do a good job defending. The Warriors have allowed 48% shooting this season including 39% from beyond the arc! Memphis had one good defensive effort in their last 6 games (against defensive-minded Utah) but allowed 46.7% or more from the field in their other 5 games. In those five games the Grizzlies 122.6 points per game! The Warriors come into this one having stayed under the total in 3 straight games but this was preceded by a 5-0 run to the over. Golden State is off a low-scoring loss at New Orleans but the over is 4-1 this season when the Warriors are off a road loss. Both teams view this game as a winnable game and I see the Grizzlies young guns pushing the pace in this one and we see a back and forth high-scoring game in this one as a result. 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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11-16-19 | Hornets v. Knicks OVER 212 | Top | 103-102 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Knicks vs Charlotte Hornets @ 7:35 ET - A helluva lot of defensive intensity in the 4th quarter led to New York getting the win Thursday over former Knicks star Kristaps Porzingis and Dallas as the Mavericks were in town. That game was practically like "winning it all" for the Knicks as they wanted that game against their former star and also got the win at Dallas earlier this season too. What that will lead to here is a very flat effort on the defensive end and that means the Hornets, in a back to back, will score plenty. I like taking the over (when the situation is right) in a back to back spot because it is tough to play solid defense back to back nights and Charlotte is off a hard-fought home win last night. Note that this total opened up at a 215.5 and then dropped a couple buckets from there and, in typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the move and grabbing the over in this one. The over is 3-1 this season when Charlotte is a road underdog. The Hornets are allowing 113 points per game this season. New York is allowing 110 points per game this season. The Knicks have trended under this season but this is the right situation, off winning a huge home game that was practically like a championship game, for that trend to be reversed. 10* OVER the total in New York |
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11-13-19 | Grizzlies v. Hornets OVER 218.5 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #579 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Memphis Grizzlies @ 7:05 ET - Perfect situation here. The Hornets are at home and hungry off a loss but can't play defense. The Grizzlies are on the road off a huge upset win and that sets this one up well to see very little defense. I had Memphis as a double digit dog when they upset the Spurs on Monday and now I want to make note of the fact that the Grizzlies are 6-2 to the over when off an outright upset win over a division rival. Charlotte has allowed an average of 114 points per game their past 4 games and that is not a huge surprise given the fact that the Hornets have allowed opponents to shoot 53% or better in 3 of those 4 games! As for the Grizzlies, they are allowing an incredible 119 points per game on the season! Charlotte enters this game having lost 3 straight games. The over is 13-7 when the Hornets enter a game on a losing streak of 3 or more consecutive games. More of the same expected here as, given the situation, this one should fly over the total with the defensive inefficiencies I am expecting in this one. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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11-09-19 | Pelicans v. Hornets OVER 231 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #525 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 7:05 ET - Both these teams are coming off unders so immediately I was looking at potential for playing the over here as teams tend to bounce back off low-scoring losses. The Pelicans were held to just 104 points at home against the Raptors last night. The Hornets were held to an embarrassing 87 points at home versus Boston on Thursday. Now you have a situation where two bad teams are matched up and both of them are coming into this one looking to explode on offense after being bottled up by superior defenses in their most recent game. In terms of additional situational support here, the Hornets have yet to have consecutive unders this season. The Pelicans also have yet to have back to back unders this season and, in fact, the over was 6-1 in their 7 games that preceded last night's low-scoring defeat. New Orleans is allowing 126.5 points per game in road games and the Hornets are allowing 118.5 points per game in home games this season. Don't be surprised if this one indeed gets into the 240s. 10* OVER the total in Charlotte |
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11-08-19 | Cavs v. Wizards UNDER 232.5 | Top | 113-100 | Win | 100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #504 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:05 ET - These teams each come in struggling and are off to 2-5 starts this season. That means each is viewing this game as an important game and a winnable game which means you're going to see some defensive intensity in this one. In fact, the Wizards come into this game talking about needing to get some stops and, lets face it, the Cavaliers are not exactly an offensive powerhouse. As for Cleveland, they want the same thing, they are a young team with guys trying to prove themselves and so they're willing to give strong effort on defense. With that said, lets also give credit to the odds makers as they are pretty damn sharp. That being said, I love the fact that this total opened as low as 226.5 and then shot up to as high as 232.5 and I am happy to grab the value on the other side of the move and play the under. The fact is that the Wizards had a 3 game stretch of some crazy games but their first two games this season and their most recent two games heading into this one have averaged a total of only 208 points per game. That is two dozen points below the number that is posted on this game as of mid-morning Friday. As for the Cavaliers, they have scored an average of just 97 points per game in their 3 road games. Keep in mind, young teams tend to struggle to score on the road. The Wizards are only favored by 4.5 here too. So that means a low-scoring home team win is quite likely and even if the game gets "a little crazy" at times I still would see it struggling to get over this big of a number. A lot of value here in my opinion as I forecast this game to stay below 220 so we've got a lot of cushion here. Cleveland games have stayed under in 17 of 29 when they are a road dog of less than 6.5 points. Wizards games against teams with a losing record (3 this season) have all stayed under the total. 10* UNDER the total in Washington |
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11-06-19 | Kings v. Raptors OVER 217.5 | Top | 120-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #557 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Sacramento Kings @ 7:35 ET - The Kings are off a blowout win but it came against a bad Knicks team. It is a confidence-booster nonetheless because that followed an upset win for Sacramento over Utah. In fact the Kings have now played well on the offensive end in 3 straight games as they have shot 48% from the field in their last 3 contests. That is why I am projecting a high scoring game here because the Raptors are off a loss and rested here. Toronto won't take their foot off the gas in this one. Not including OT points of course, the Raptors are averaging 115 points per game at home this season where they are 3-0. Hungry for a bounce back win after losing at Milwaukee on Saturday, Toronto brings a huge effort in this one. Each team has another non-conference match-up on deck so the full focus is on this game and I like the way the Kings have been playing. The point is Sacramento will be able to hang around in this game better than they normally would and that means, with the Raptors scoring plenty in a spot like this, we're looking at a very high-scoring game. The over is 13-6 the past two seasons when Sacramento entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more games. The over went 6-1 the past two seasons when Toronto was off a game they had trailed by 15 or more points at the half. The over also went a solid 8-4 the past two seasons when the Raptors were playing with 3 or more days of rest between games. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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11-05-19 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 213.5 | Top | 119-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #541 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Cavaliers vs Boston Celtics @ 7:05 ET - Contrarian here as Boston is known for defense. I don't see the Celtics D being too "amped up" about this game though as they face a downtrodden Cavaliers team that is much different than the Cleveland team they were facing in the LeBron James seasons here. That said, what I like about the over here is that I expect this game to play with a good pace. The Cavs are not a very good basketball team but they have gone 2-1 at home and they have averaged 112.7 points per game here. The Celtics are a good team and they enter this game on a 4 game winning streak in which Boston has averaged 112.5 points per game. If both teams simply hit their "average" performances this game should land double digits higher than the posted total. The fact is the Cavaliers are going to bring a strong effort after starting the season 2-0 at home but then getting blasted by 20 points in their most recent game. They will come out looking to push themselves to a much better performance and they will have to score plenty to hang around in this game. That's because the Celtics enter this game with fresh legs as they have not played since Friday. When they have played a game with no rest or with more than the usual 1 day of rest between games (so an atypical rest situation) they have scored 118 and 116, respectively. I am looking for another big game here as the over improves to 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The over is 24-16 when Boston is off a divisional game and note that the last 36 times that the Celtics have been a road favorite of 6 points or less, only 13 of the 36 games have stayed under the total. After getting blasted in their last game you might expect some defense here but the over is 12-6 when the Cavs are off a game in which they allowed 130 points or more. Another high-scoring one here. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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11-04-19 | Bucks v. Wolves OVER 230 | Top | 134-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Timberwolves vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 8:05 ET - This is contrarian because with Karl-Anthony Towns out for a 2nd straight game (suspension from fight with Joel Embiid) many might be looking under here because of his production on the offensive end. However, don't forget how important he is on the defensive end and now the Wolves go from facing one of the worst teams int the league (Wizards) to one of the best (Bucks). Don't be surprised if Milwaukee puts up a ton of points here. They have scored an average of 119 points per game this season. The issue for the Bucks could be a lack of defensive intensity in this one and that will open up things in the offensive end for Minnesota here. Milwaukee is coming off a huge revenge win over the Raptors (beat Bucks in Eastern Conference finals) and they dialed up the intensity for that one. The game stayed under the total but the Bucks have not been involved in back to back unders yet this season and I don't expect that streak to come to an end here either. The Timberwolves are averaging 118 points per game this season and coming off a confidence-boosting blowout win at Washington on Saturday. Both teams were off yesterday so we'll see rested legs in this one and both teams happy to play at a fast pace in this one. The Bucks should score plenty in the paint too with the Wolves missing Towns down low. As a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, Milwaukee is 10-5 to the over. Off an upset win as an underdog, Minnesota is 18-7 to the over. The Timberwolves are also 18-9 to the over as a home underdog. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-03-19 | Rockets v. Heat OVER 233.5 | Top | 100-129 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #519 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets @ 6:05 ET - The Heat are expected to have Dion Waiters make his season debut in this one. He is a key contributor. I am aware of Miami's Jimmy Butler being listed as questionable on the injury report. He generally plays through injuries like the one he is currently dealing with and I expect him to play tonight. Even if he doesn't, keep in mind the Heat played the first 3 games of this season without him. I like taking the over here with the Rockets off a loss that stayed under the total. Houston had a rare poor game offensively on Friday at Brooklyn (we cashed the under here in that game) and I like coming back with the over after a game like that. Note that these teams both have been putting up big point totals early this season. Also, Miami's defense is going to be in "shock mode" as they try to adjust to the Rockets quick-firing offense after facing the struggling (and injured) Hawks in back to back games. I look for the Heat to struggle with the Houston attack here. The over is 8-4 when the Rockets enter a game after allowing 110 points or more in 4 straight games. Miami has not lost ATS in any of their games this season (one push) and the over is 6-1 when the Heat enter a game on an ATS undefeated streak of 4 or more games and they are now 4-0-1 ATS after covering versus Atlanta. The over is also 5-2 when the Heat enter a game having scored 105 or more points in 5 straight games. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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11-01-19 | Rockets v. Nets UNDER 242 | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #568 Friday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Brooklyn Nets vs Houston Rockets @ 7:05 ET - This total is up in the 242 range which I fully understand based on the over-reaction of the market place after Houston's most recent game was a 159-158 win. Of course this crazy result in the Rockets win at Washington Wednesday has led to an over-adjustment in this game. Brooklyn has played 4 games so far this season and 2 of them went to overtime. Of course that holds some significance when looking at their numbers as half their games have had extra time. When you back out the overtime periods for the Nets, Brooklyn has not had a game total more than 240 this season. Also, the average of their 4 games in regulation time is 229.5 points scored. As for the Rockets, prior to their wild game against the Wizards, they had played 3 games and 2 of the 3 totaled 228 points. Even including the other game (a high scoring one) those 3 games averaged 235 points. Again, the point being that if these teams play their "average" game we're looking at a point total that is about 10 points below the current number posted on this game. As a result, I am going under the total in this one. After a close win (by a margin of less than 4 points), the Rockets have stayed under in 10 of 14 games. Also, in a game with a posted total of 230 or more, Houston has stayed under the total in 27 of 43 games. The Nets were favored in their most recent game and yet lost by a double digit margin! The last 5 times they are off a game like that, the under has cashed in 4 of 5 times! More of the same here. 10* UNDER the total in Brooklyn |
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10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat OVER 223 | Top | 97-112 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #533 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks @ 7:35 ET - The Hawks game had 128 points at halftime last night and yet still went under the total. That's because Atlanta allowed the game to slow down in the second half and the 76ers took it to them and got the win. The Hawks won't make the same mistake here at Miami and that means we should see plenty of run and gun in this one. Speaking of mistakes, the Heat led by 7 going to the 4th quarter at Minnesota Sunday and then allowed the Wolves to outscore them by 14 points in the final stanza and Miami lost by 7. The Heat won't make the same mistake here as they know they need to keep their foot on the gas when they get a lead like that. As a result of the types of games both these teams are off of as well as the fact this total has dropped about a bucket to 223 as of early game day morning, I am going with the over in this match-up. Look for the over to improve to a perfect 4-0 on the season in Heat games. As for the Hawks, the over was a perfect 2-0 in their two visits to Miami last season. Also, the over is 16-7 when the Heat are installed as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. The line is in that range for this one and I look for both teams to favor a fast tempo in this game per the above reasoning. 10* OVER the total in Miami |