Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-10-21 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 47.5 | 48-37 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 40 m | Show | |
01-10-21 | Bears +10.5 v. Saints | 9-21 | Loss | -117 | 118 h 55 m | Show | |
The number here on this tilt is bloated according to my projections giving us value with the underdog. Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite. Saints are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play on Bears to cover |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 33 m | Show | |
NFC Playoffs - Wild Card Play on Washington to cover |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | 30-20 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 50 m | Show | |
Seattle beat the Rams 20-9 when they met in December and the L/3 most recent meetings in this series saw no more than 40 combined points go on the board . Rinse and repeat here on an under wager, especially considering Rams QB Jared Goff is out or less than 100%.
Seattle went under in 7 of their L/8 games overall, with the average combined score of those tilts ringing in 39.4 ppg.McVay is 8-1 UNDER revenging a road loss against opponent as the coach of LA RAMS with a combined average of 41.5 ppg going on the scoreboard. SEATTLE is 6-0 UNDER vs. poor punt return teams, less than 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 42.3 ppg scored. Under is 8-0 in Rams last 8 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game. NFL team against the total (LA RAMS) - as a #6 seed in the playoffs, playoff game are 23-4 under L/10 seasons . NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (LA RAMS/ SEATTLE) - in the Wild Card round of the playoffs are 36-10 UNDER L/10 seasons.Play UNDER |
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01-09-21 | Rams v. Seahawks -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -118 | 56 h 5 m | Show | |
eattle took out the Rams 20-9 when they they last met and with Rams QB Jeff Goff out or less than 100% the Seahawks look like viable bets for a rinse and repeat sitiuation again. Carroll is 16-5 ATS ( as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points as the coach of SEATTLE. |
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01-09-21 | Colts +6.5 v. Bills | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this total is closer to 41 points thus giving us value with a under wager. |
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01-03-21 | Washington Football Team v. Eagles +7 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
01-03-21 | Titans -7 v. Texans | 41-38 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
Tennessee was absolutely obliterated last week vs Green Bay and will now be primed for redemption here this week vs a Houston side with a 4-11 record and feeling less than motivated with nothing to play for as this season winds down. |
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01-03-21 | Chargers v. Chiefs +4.5 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 54 m | Show | |
It matters very little what the Chiefs do today. They have the No. 1 seed and get a bye week coming up, but that does not mean that they wont want to stay sharp. Take the points. |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
The Bears behind QB Mitchell Trubisky have scored 30-plus points in four straight games for the first time in team history and in their current form are more than capable of ending the Green Bay Packers 5 game win streak. I know the Packers really put the boots to the Bears when they faced them back in end of November by a 41-25 count but it must be noted that CHICAGO is 16-5 ATS L/21 in home games revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more and are desperate to get a win and here and garner a play off spot. CHICAGO is also 26-13 ATS L/39 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (GREEN BAY) - after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a team with a winning record are 5-28 L/10 seasons for a 85% go against conversion rate. |
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01-03-21 | Raiders v. Broncos +3 | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show | |
These two sides the Raiders and the Broncos are probably busy booking golf holidays instead of being fully focused on this tilt. But there is still some pride on the line here as the Broncos should be keyed up to reap some revenge on a Las Vegas side that smashed then 37-12 as home chalk back in mid-November . The Raiders are off three straight home losses and look lifeless setting up what Im betting is down performance here. Note: NFL visiting sides like the Raiders coming off three consecutive home losses are 1-8 SU in division games since 1980. LAS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. DENVER is 6-0 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse this season. NFL Home teams (DENVER) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 35 or more points, off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play on the Denver Broncos to cover |
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12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
The Bills who have clinched a play off appearance won 24-21 on Nov. 1 in Buffalo vs the Patriots. The Patriots haven't been swept by a division opponent in 19 seasons, and Im betting the Pats will primed to keep that streak alive, and wont go down without a fight vs a side that may be looking ahead to the play offs and just as importantly staying healthy. Note: New England when they are seeking a same-season division loss under Bill Belichick, are 16-0 SU and 15-1 ATS the L/16 opportunities. |
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12-27-20 | Eagles -3 v. Cowboys | 17-37 | Loss | -102 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
Philadelphia (4-9-1) looking good behind their rookie QB Hurts . He won his first career start before another solid showing by the rookie in a 33-26 loss to Arizona pushed the defending NFC East champion to the brink of elimination.Since 2017 when they won the Super Bowl, the Eagles are 11-2 in games they must win or they'd be eliminated from the playoffs or mathematically knocked out of contention. rinse and repeat with Hurts top tier QB effort to be the difference maker vs Dalton and a Cowboys team that is extremely inconsistent. NFL Underdogs or pick (DALLAS) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 9-36 ats L/5 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss, with a losing record are 18-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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12-27-20 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 50 | 17-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Both teams have dealt with plenty of injuries, the Cowboys hardest hit on the offensive line while the Eagles have had issues there and in the receiving group and that will help contribute to seeing this combined score to fail to eclipse the total.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game this season. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER after allowing 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 4 or more turnovers are 28-6 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-27-20 | Panthers +1 v. Washington Football Team | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
When these teams last met last season, Washington beat Carolina, and Rivera was fired two days later. Now he has the chance with some former players around to celebrate the improbable accomplishment of making the playoffs with a victory and a New York Giants loss to Baltimore. Revenge and a play appearance is a powerful motivator favoring Carolina. CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. NFL Home teams (WASHINGTON) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team are 11-37 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CAROLINA) - off a road loss, with a losing record are 41-18 L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate.
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12-27-20 | Bears v. Jaguars +7.5 | 41-17 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 23 m | Show | |
Ok we have gone crazy here with this chalk line in my opinion favoring Chicago. I know the Bears are much improved since Trubisky got back under center , but since when has he been considered to be a consistent QB. Im just not sold, and will take advantage of recency bias based on the Bears and Jaguars current proverbial opposite performance forms . By the way no I dont believe the Jags are in tank mode, as they look for Clemson pivot Trevor Lawrence in the draft.CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
Darnold was 22 of 31 for 207 yards and a season-best 71% completion percentage with a touchdown and no turnovers against the Rams last time out . Darnold's 99.8 quarterback rating was also a high for this season. Now brimming with confidence Im betting on the Jets to make the Browns work for a win here. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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12-27-20 | Falcons v. Chiefs UNDER 53 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Atlanta is missing two key starters for this tilt against KC on its offensive line, which Im betting will effect its ability to pass block for Matt Ryan which will mute the Falcons flow. Meanwhile, KC after knowing its play off destiny is firmly in place, will play conservatively and make sure they stay as healthy as possible. Plus its never easy playing in the windy confines of this stadium, and that also will effect both sides offensive flow in a game Im betting failts to eclipse the total. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +2.5 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
The Dolphins need this win badly to get into the plays offs which means their will be alot of pressure on them here on the road with a rookie QB at the helm of the offense. Its never easy traveling from west to east , which the Fins are doing. Also the Raiders have a few more days of preparation time for this tilt which Im betting gives them an edge. Gruden is 21-9 ATS after a loss by 3 or less points in all games he has coached. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LAS VEGAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread are 36-9 ATS L/10 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Raiders |
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12-25-20 | Vikings v. Saints -7 | 33-52 | Win | 106 | 23 h 50 m | Show | |
I know Drew Brees has looked rusty since returning from injury, but Im betting he will be ready to perform at a top level this week after having enough snaps last week to get back into a groove. He will especially primed to perform as will his team mates vs a Vikings side that defeated the Saints in overtime with a FG in last year’s Wild Card game. Revenge is a huge motivator and deserves attention. NFL team (NEW ORLEANS) - good offensive team (5.4 to 5.8 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (5.8 or more YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game are 37-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - good rushing team (125-150 RY/G) against a poor rushing defense (125-150 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game are 23-2 L/37 seasons for a 92% conversion rate SU for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.7 ppg. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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12-21-20 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 40 | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 60 h 11 m | Show | |
Im betting on Pittsburgh grinding away in methodical fashion here this week on the road in Cincinnati, while the Bengals offense will struggle to score on the Steelers top tier group. The Steelers are 0-20-1 UNDER L/21 on the road facing a team scoring less than 23 points per game. Play Under - Home teams against the total (CINCINNATI) - after being beaten by the spread by 42 or more points total in their last five games, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 25-4 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score of those tilts clicking in at 38.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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12-21-20 | Steelers -14 v. Bengals | 17-27 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 14 m | Show | |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | 20-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 17 m | Show | |
The Giants and Browns both are looking for a play off appearance but the Gmen are more desperate in a bid for their first playoff berth since 2016. The Giants had their four-game winning streak snapped by Arizona last weekend and fell a game behind first-place Washington (6-7) in the NFC East and will now be ready to rebound and play this game like its their last. The Browns are 0-8-2 ATS coming off a loss where they failed to cover. The Browns are 0-5 ATS L/5 as a road favorite. The Giants are 8-0 ATS L/8 when the total is over 46 and they are coming off a home game. |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings UNDER 47 | 33-27 | Loss | -104 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
The Bears have averaged 30.3 points over their past three games, with their revamped offensive line playing a part , but Minnesota will be ready for whats coming and have a better group on D than Houston and Detroit. Im betting on limited combined points.
The Bears are 0-9 UNDER L/9 coming off an upset win where they scored at least 24 points. NFL Home teams against the total (MINNESOTA) - after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 23-3 UNDER L/ 5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate fro bettors with a combined average of 38 ppg scored. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots +1.5 v. Dolphins | 12-22 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 41 m | Show | |
The Patriots (6-7) head into Sunday's game against the Dolphins and Tagovailoa with their NFL-record run of 11 consecutive playoff appearances in dire jeopardy, and their reign atop the AFC East at an end. Needless to say the Pats need this game badly and Im betting they leave everything on the filed here and get us a cover. |
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12-20-20 | 49ers v. Cowboys +3.5 | 33-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show | |
Dalton the Cowboys starting QB is currently in top form after four straight starts, while winning twice and coming off a season-high 122.6 passer rating in a 30-7 win at the Bengals. Im betting the under rated Cowboys will once again be a handful for their comeptetion here and get us the cover. |
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12-20-20 | Bears v. Vikings -2.5 | 33-27 | Loss | -122 | 3 h 17 m | Show | |
Minnesota had a 3 game winning streak end last time out, but Im betting they will be ready to rebound here this week vs the Chciago Bears a side getting far to much respect in my humble opinion. Hey I kniow Bears QB Trubisky is suddenly on fire, but he has shown throughout his career he not be counted on in big games and or with his consistency. Note: Vikings are 13-1 ATS with a win percentage of .400 or better at home off a loss. Also Kirk Cousins is 5-0 ATS at home in December when coming off a defeat , and has covered 14 of his L/18 off a loss. |
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12-20-20 | Texans +8 v. Colts | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
12-19-20 | Panthers +8 v. Packers | 16-24 | Push | 0 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
No way am I going to overlook the Teddy Bridgewater effect has his has been money in the bank when his team looks to be a non factor vs superior opposition. Note: that Bridgewater is 18-2 ATS in his NFL career in game as a non-division underdog, including 10-0 ATS when he is a 3 point or more underdog. Hey I know Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP season, but Im betting things will not come so easily today vs the Panthers . NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - off a road win against a division rival, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are just 8-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (GREEN BAY) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 6-28 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate. Play on Carolina to cover |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +6 | 48-19 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos UNDER 49 | 48-19 | Loss | -113 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Buffalo is off a huge win vs Pittsburgh last time out, and will be in an emotional letdown spot here this week, and could easily find themselves starting slowly on offence which will directly effect the total combined score here in this tilt vs a Denver side that almost always struggles on offense averaging just 15.7 ppg at home this season. The Broncos are 0-10-1 UNDER coming of a road game where they threw for at least 250 yards. DENVER is 11-1 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored. DENVER is 15-3 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 8-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5 over the last 3 seasons. BUFFALO is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. NFL Play Under - Road teams against the total (BUFFALO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more) playing a team with a losing record are 39-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. Play UNDER NFL Play Under - Any team against the total (DENVER) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games are 424-290 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 60% conversion rate. |
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12-14-20 | Ravens -3 v. Browns | 47-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
The Ravens have gotten most of their players back following a stretch of 10 straight days with positive COVID-19 tests and Im betting they will be primed to play hard tonight against a side they matchup well against as was the case in Baltimore in Sept as the Ravens rolled to a 38-6 win. I know the Browns are playing better, and want revenge but the matchups according to my projections tell me a different story. BALTIMORE is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. BALTIMORE is 8-0 ATS in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.BALTIMORE is 6-0 ATS in road games in December games over the last 3 seasons. CLEVELAND is 1-8 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.CLEVELAND is 0-6 ATS ( after allowing 6 or more yards/play in 2 consecutive games over the last 2 seasons NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - revenging a road loss against opponent by 14 points or more, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 4-22 SU L/37 seasons for a go against 85% conversion rate. NFL Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CLEVELAND) - after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored are 25-60 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. Baltimore to win/cover |
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12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 46 | 47-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
Tonight games is supposed to be a windy affair with gusts of 20 mph and average winds clicking in at 14-17 mpg. With that said, Im betting on both sides reverting to run heavy ground games, and short passes which will eat alot of clock time and help keep this score to the low side of the total. Note: Divisional under reg/playoffs since with a total of between 44.5 to 60 since 2005 are 204-124-4 UNDER for a 62% conversion rate. CLEVELAND is 22-10 UNDER L/34 in home games versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game with a combined average of 37 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 12-3 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 42.2 ppg scored. BALTIMORE is 15-6 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg going on the board. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win as an underdog, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season 104-53 L/37 seasons for a 66% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills OVER 48 | 15-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Pittsburghs offense has stalled in its last two games in recent weeks, but Im betting Tomlin and company will be more aggressive this week and get back to the 24 to 37 point output consistency they managed previous to those tilts. Meanwhile, Buffalo has really started to roll , scoring 44, 30,27, 34 points respectively in their L/4 trips to the gridiron and more than capable of piercing the Steelers top tier defence. The above combination will see this tilt eclipse the total. My projections estimate both sides will score 20+ points. Note: BUFFALO is 6-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points this season with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored. PITTSBURGH is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 54.7 ppg going on the board. BUFFALO is 7-0 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins this season with a combined average of 60 ppg going on the board. Play on the OVER |
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12-13-20 | Packers v. Lions OVER 54.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 49 m | Show | |
Detroit plays wide open football at home in the dome the past two years. The Lions are 11-0-1 OVER L/12 at home. DETROIT is 10-0 OVER L/10 in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 60.3 ppg scored. The Packers are 12-0-1 OVER L/13 on the road coming off a game where they allowed less than 310 total yards. Play OVER |
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12-13-20 | Falcons -1 v. Chargers | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
The Chargers are off a 45-0 embarrassment last week, and overall dont deserve alot of respect based on their three wins vs side that dont have more than 2 wins - the Jets (0-12), Jaguars (1-11) and Bengals (2-9). Meanwhile, Atlanta is exhibiting signs of life, with Raheem Harris as the coach winning 4 of 7, after a 0-5 start. The Chargers are 30th in DVOA, 18th in offense and 26th in defense and look like fodder here vs a Falcons side that is. 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record .Chargers are 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. |
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12-13-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Raiders | 44-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
Colts QB Philip Rivers is set to take on the Raiders for a record 29th time so he will feel comfortable here and that will be the edge needed for the his team to get by their hosts here this week. |
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12-13-20 | Jets v. Seahawks -14.5 | 3-40 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show | |
There is absolutely no value here on this underdog line with a Jets side that has shown very little cohesiveness this season, and now expected to without their most explosive offensive player rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims (personal). With Seattle looking to bounce back off a loss, I see very little mercy being shown here as Im betting on the Seahawks behind QB Wilson to blitz the Jets secondary all day long and for a Seattle D, that has finally rounded into top form having allowed an average of 19.5 ppg to take a dominant DD victory.NY JETS are 0-7 ATS vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at 22.5 ppg. Play on Seattle to cover |
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12-13-20 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 51.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Im betting the Titans explosive offense will tee off on a Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA. Meanwhile, on the flipside Tennesse ranks in the bottom five in DVOA and could easily get pierced by a Jacksonville side that has scored 25 or more points in 4 of their L/6 trips to the gridiron. These teams have seen 60 plus points go on the board in recent meetings. Note: Titans QB Tannehill has seen 21 of his L/25 games go over the set total in a regular season game. The Titans are 11-0 OVER L/11 facing a team Derrick Henry ran for at least 75 yards against last meeting. TENNESSEE is 11-2 OVER (+8.8 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with an average of 57 ppg going on the board in those gamesTENNESSEE is 8-1 OVER against conference opponents this season with a combined average of 58.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. Play OVER |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams OVER 44.5 | 3-24 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My projections estimate this total to be closer to 48 which gives us alot of value here based on that projection. I perception here by the lines-makers and much of the public is that this will be a field position chess match, but I do not see it that way. Last week , the Pats put 45 points on the board, and look ready to surge offensively behind Cam Newton, while the Rams bounced off a loss in their previous week to put 38 points on the board in a win. I know both sides have shown under the total tendencies, and New Englands overall offensive numbers might look like smoke and mirrors, but Im expecting enough fire works based on my models to recommend we take the over. This game is all about flow, and both come in here surging. Note: NFL home favorites like the Rams of 3+ points on artificial surface are 29-0 OVER when they are off a double-digit vicotry as a favorite and they are going against a side that has averaged more than 7.5 rushing first downs per game as visitors with a combined average of 55.4 ppg going on the board. Play OVER |
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12-08-20 | Cowboys +9.5 v. Ravens | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
Baltimore is obviously the superior side but the they do have some covid issues and injuries to key contributors. Also the truth is the Ravens are not as dominating as last season and have lost 3 straight games, and cant be trusted in their current form to cover, vs a Dallas team that also needs to get a victory here if they have any chance for a play off spot.BALTIMORE is 8-19 ATS in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 375 or more yards/game.Harbaugh is 11-22 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game as the coach of BALTIMORE. Play on the Dallas Cowboys to cover |
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12-07-20 | Bills v. 49ers +1 | 34-24 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
The Bills are 6-23 SU in prime-time tilts since the 2000 season, and have lost nine straight on Monday night since a victory at Miami on Oct. 4, 1999. Buffalo is 0-2 in night games this season, with losses at Tennessee, in a COVID-19 rescheduled Tuesday night outing on Oct. 13, and Kansas City the following week. After watching QB Nick Mullens top notch relief of injured starter Joe Garoppolo, which included a impressive victory last week on the road against the Los Angeles Rams Im betting the 49ers get the job done again vs a Buffalo side. that has lost 2 of their L/3 road games. SAN FRANCISCO is 33-12 ATS when playing on Monday night since 1992. The Niners are also 7-0 SU/ATS L/7 on Mondays vs AFC opposition . Play on SF 49ers to cover |
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12-06-20 | Broncos +13.5 v. Chiefs | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Drew Lock will be back under center when Denver visits Kansas City this week. Having a stable position player should give the Broncos some balance and confidence entering this tilt against a top tier opponent. Quote: ''Drew's going to be motivated,'' Broncos tight end Noah Fant said. ''I'm expecting him to come out and do good things.'' End Quote. Last week the Broncos were short at the QB position and were subsequently crushed and embarrassed by a 31-3 count vs the Saints and will be ready to bounce back and get some semblance of respect back. Note: DENVER is 6-0 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points over the last 2 seasons. Meanwhile, KC is also off a big effort last time out, squeezing by TB 27-24 in a physical game that could easily see them in a emotional letdown spot. KANSAS CITY is 0-7 ATS after gaining 450 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games over the last 3 seasons Also Reid is 1-11 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. Broncos enter 12-3-1 ATS in this series when the Chiefs own a .750 plus win percentage and get my support here as underdogs. Play on Denver to cover |
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12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 16-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
HC Reid of KC likes to play teams he deems as lower tier sides alot more conservatively than might be expected. I believe Reid trys not to exert to much energy against inferior opponents especially if his team has bigger goals ahead like this version of the team he resides over which will usually translate into the positive of less injuries. This type of game plan will Im betting see a lower combined score than the linesmkaers are expecting. Reid is 12-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor teams - outscored by 6+ points per game on the season as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. Reid is 9-2 UNDER as a favorite of 10 or more points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with the average combined score clicking in at 40.1 ppg. Reid is 16-4 UNDER in home games after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored in all games he has coached since 1992 with a combined average of 41.5 ppg scored. The Chiefs are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a home favorite of more than a TD when the line is more than seven points lower than last game. The Broncos are 0-9 UNDER L/9 as a dog of more than three points coming off a game where they failed to cover. Broncos have gone under in their L/7 division road games. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DENVER) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 26-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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12-06-20 | Eagles v. Packers OVER 48.5 | 16-30 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 3 m | Show | |
The Eagles won 34-27 at Green Bay last year, which marked the Packers' only home loss and Im expecting more surprising action from a Philadelphia side that is still looking for a ;possible play off appearance. My projections estimate a higher scoring affair than the linesmakers are estimating. The Packers are 14-0-2 OVER L/18 coming off a home game and playing a team below .535 on the season. Green Bay is 11-1 OVER L/12 after division home game. GREEN BAY is 21-8 OVER ( versus excellent rushing teams - averaging 5 or more rushing yards/carry with a combined average of 52.1 ppg scored. Over is 30-14 in Eagles last 44 road games. Philadelphia 7-0 OVER L/7 away vs NFC North. Play OVER |
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12-06-20 | Saints -2.5 v. Falcons | 21-16 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
The Saints (9-2) have won two straight games since star QN Drew Brees went down with a rib injury, extending their overall winning streak to eight in a row heading into Sunday's game against the Atlanta Falcons. The Saints can clinch a playoff spot with a victory and a loss by the Bears and I am predicting a top tier effort and win by them in this spot play vs a Falcons side that exerted alot of energy in a lopsided win last week.New Orleans has won five of the past six meetings in the twice-a-year rivalry.NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 season.NEW ORLEANS is 7-0 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons.ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS vs. excellent kickoff return teams, more than 24 yards per return over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 0-8 ATS in home games off a home blowout win by 21 points or more since 1992. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (NEW ORLEANS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 27-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.2 ppg. Play on New Orleans to cover |
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12-06-20 | Bengals +11.5 v. Dolphins | 7-19 | Loss | -117 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
The Dolphins played a conservative solid game last week notching a 20-3 victory vs the hapless Jets as a TD-plus road chalk . It must now be noted that NFL favorites like the Dolphins playing on a natural surface have failed to cover 22 straight times vs a non-divisional opponent when they themselves are off a 14 +point victory as a away favorite when they registered at least 28 minutes of possession time. CINCINNATI is 7-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. MIAMI is 3-15 ATS L/18 in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games . NFL Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (MIAMI) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a losing record are 29-66 ATS L/37 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Play on Cincinnati to cover |
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12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets UNDER 47 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
After losing for the 2nd straight time and being embarrassed by a 43-6 count last time out, I expect the Raiders to get back to basics and run the ball more consistently while playing a conservative game and a much better brand of defense. Today against a jets steam that struggles with offensive consistency as was evident by a 3 point output last week, Im betting we see a game that stays on the low side of the number this week. LAS VEGAS is 16-6 UNDER (L/22 in road games after allowing 35 points or more last game with a combined average score of 44.1 ppg. NFL team against the total (LAS VEGAS) - in conference games, off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a road favorite are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 49 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
These teams offenses do not run a very high speeds. Seattle is ranked in the middle of league in pace with the Eagles offense ranks 25th in pace. Both these offensive lines rank 31st and 32nd in adjusted sack rate, which will Im betting makes for some stalled plays and adjusted yards that see backward movement. Philadelphia offense overall rank 30th overall and 30th in passing offense and Im betting their lack of explosiveness will also hamper the combined points basket here. Meanwhile, the Eagles D, continues to improve, and deserves respect here against Wilson and company. On the flips side I know the caveat here is the Seahawks Defense, but it is uptrending in my charts, and now that they are getting heal-their could easily continue to improve. With Seahawks Carroll recently deciding to revert back to a more run heavy attack, Im projecting a more grinding game than the lines-makers might expect. Under is 9-4 in Seahawks last 13 games as a road favorite. Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 games overall.Under is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 Monday games.Under is 12-3 in Eagles last 15 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 4-0 in Eagles last 4 vs. NFC.Under is 13-3 in Eagles last 16 games in November.T he Eagles are 0-15 UNDER L/15 at home facing a team allowing more than 21 points per game with a combined average of 35.13 ppg going on the board with none of the 15 games going over this total. Play UNDER |
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11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -9 | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 33 m | Show | |
Mighty Indianapolis squeaked out a 34-31 win vs the Green Bay Packers last time out, and now the Im betting on the Packers to be primed to bounce back in a big way this week and take out their frustrations vs the Bears side that has lost four straight games . It must be noted that Under Matt Fleur, the Packers are a perfect 5-0 SU/ ATS off a defeat, winning every game by more than a TD. Also QB Rodgers’ owns a 7-0 ATS record in his last seven games when coming off a loss. Play on Green Bay to cover |
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11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
The Bucs are dealing with injuries along the offensive line with injuries to A.Q. Shipley, Ali Marpet and Donovan Smith and Im betting their offensive flow will be interrupted as they struggle to protect senior QB Tom Brady. Meanwhile, on the flipside as explosive as KC can be Im also betting they will be in tough here today vs an impressive Bucs defensive front. Under is 4-0 in Chiefs last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 9-4 in Buccaneers last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. NFL away teams like like the Chiefs that won more than ten games the previous regular season and are not on a four-plus game losing streak are 0-23 UNDER L/23 when they are off a away tilt, and have an average turnover margin of more than one-half, and they are now going against a side that has averaged more than 36.5 passes per game season to date. Play on the UNDER |
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11-29-20 | Titans v. Colts -3 | 45-26 | Loss | -120 | 98 h 50 m | Show | |
Indianapolis got the better of Tennessee in their first meeting of the season, and are just the better more balanced side in my opinion. Philip Rivers is on a mission and seeing the field well, and has been a sharp shooter fitting passes into very tight openings, while the Colts’ running game is now in top tier form making them the complete package thanks to an over powering D. The Tennessee Titans are 0-16 SU and 2-14 ATS L/16 as single-digit division road underdogs, including 0-11 SUATS the last eleven. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills -4.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
It must be noted that ESPN data says NFL rookie quarterbacks from California teams are 1-14 straight up since the merger in Eastern Time zones. This keys in on Chargers rookie QB Justin Hebert in his visit to play a strong Buffalo bills side that is well rested and off a bye week.. It must also be noted that the Chargers are 1-9 SU and 0-10 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Buffalo Bills to cover |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
The Jets have been eliminated from the playoffs and are showing no signs of life after losing the stats battle in 10 straight games. NYJ D is allowing a whopping 5.9 yards per play and 31st in defensive passing success and are allowing 8 yards per attempt, per game. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are ninth in passing success and averaging 7.2 yards per attempt through the air. With that said,Miami shut out the Jets, 24-0 earlier this season and now a rinse and repeat situation Im betting will be on todays agenda .Dolphins are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and get the nod again. Projected score: Miami 34 NY Jets 10 Miami to cover |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -3 | 41-16 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
The Cowboys are off a big win last time out vs the Vikings as underdogs, and are showing some signs life of late and more upward trajectory to come according to my projections as they still have a chance at a play off appearance . Last week the Cowboys converted converted 5-of-11 third downs at Minnesota and are looking viable in key spots which will make them dangerous vs a Washington side that was fortunate to get by Cincinnati last week and squeaked out a rather strange victory after Bengals QB Joe Burrow went down in the 2nd half. This week Im betting a good Dallas side that is getting it mojo back to find a way to get revenge for a loss earlier this season to the Football team and avoid the season sweep vs what my rating consider a over rated opponent. Thanksgiving Day favorites of 3 or less points are 24-9 SU and 22-10-1 ATS, including 6-0 SUATS the last six seasons. Dallas is 14-0 ATS L/14 on artificial turf after a road victory when they converted at least five third downs in each of their last two trips to the gridiron. DALLAS is 7-0 ATS after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game over the last 3 seasons. Play on Dallas to cover |
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11-23-20 | Rams +4.5 v. Bucs | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
Los Angeles Rams, who are coming off an impressive victory over Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks and are looking more confident and cohesive by the week and are viable underdogs vs public favorite Tampa Bay according to my projections . Note: TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. The Rams are 6-1 ATS L/7 in this series, including 4-0 ATS as visitors . The Rams also boast a 4-1 SU/ATS L/5 vs the NFC South. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay sport a ugly bankroll depleting 2-10 ATS as a chalk vs NFC West opposition. With that said, my money is on the under appreciated Rams. Play on LA Rams to cover |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -7.5 v. Raiders | 35-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 44 m | Show | |
The Raiders' defense is playing its best football in years heading into this game, allowing 14.7 points per game, but Im betting they will be tested in a big way vs a revenge minded Chiefs side that is well rested after a bye. Note: Raiders beat KC 40-32 at home earlier this season) Chiefs, head coach Andy Reid has proved to be money in the bank in the recent past recording a 39-19-1 ATS | 32.2% ROI on the road while the Chiefs also flaunt a 17-4 SU and 16-4-1 ATS record in their L/21 away games.The Chiefs are also 12-0-1 ATS away when coming off consecutive victories when going against an AFC opponent. Considering Patrick Mahomes, he is 29-14-2 ATS (32.3% ROI) career mark its never a bad bet putting a Chiefs ticket in your pocket. KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. NFL Road teams (KANSAS CITY) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 37-10 ATS L/37 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (LAS VEGAS) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 7 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games are 16-41 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings -7 | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 10 m | Show | |
Minnesota under Don Zimmer is 23-3 SU and 20-5-1 ATS as a favorite in non division home games and considering they are heating up with three straight wins including a MFL victory vs Chicago last week holding the Bears to just 148 yards of offense it will be an easy decision to lay the lumber here vs a Dallas side that has lost 4 straight games . Minnesota has accumulated a 10-1 ATS record L/11 matchups against Dallas.. The Vikings are 13-0-1 ATS (/14-0 SU as a favorite of more than three points when the total is at least 46. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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11-22-20 | Bengals +2 v. Washington Football Team | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 14 m | Show | |
After Alex Smith of Washington teed off last week in a big output (Alex Smith threw for a career-best 390 yards) Im expecting a letdown here this week. I looked at this game from a long term trend outlook looking for value on the line . Most will handicap this game from an empirical view point, but in a game that shows some long term negative trending algorithms on the home team , Im recommending we take a swipe with the road dog. Note: NFL teams like Washington that won less than six games in their last campaign are 0-22 ATS L/22 as a home favorite when they are off a defeat , and then are scheduled to play away games in each of the next two weeks, and they are facing a non-divisional foe like Cincinnati that has averaged more than 26 minutes of possession time. Add to that WASHINGTON is 9-23 ATS in home games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992. Also CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses this season which was the case last time out. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (CINCINNATI) - off a road loss, with a losing record are 41-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 73% conversion rate. Play on Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars UNDER 46.5 | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
Recently the Steelers run D, has struggled and today Im betting the Jags in a move to stay close and to try to pull off the upset will attack and try to move the chains via their ground game in very conservative fashion which will help keep the clock churning. Also on the flip side experienced HC Tomlin knows his team needs to take a significant step forward after failing to go over 50 yards rushing in any of their past three game. Im expecting Tomlin to be more aggressive than usual with the ground game , as it needs to improve as we head towards the play offs which will make his team less predictable. This Im betting also helps us cash on the under in what should be a grinding affair. Pittsburgh is 0-14 UNDER L/14 when they are off a home game and visiting a team that has lost at least their last two games. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 going under by more than a TD on the road coming off a home game when facing a team below .500. Jacksonville is 0-16 L/16 UNDER on a natural surface when they are off a road loss and they are facing a team that has forced at least 1.75 turnovers per game season-to-date. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - average passing team (5.9-6.7 PYA) against an average passing defense (5.9-6.7 PYA) after 8+ games, after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 35-10 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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11-22-20 | Steelers v. Jaguars +10.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh and Jacksonville have played some very close games in the recent past with 10 of their past 12 meeting decided in one-score tilts, including several decided on the final drive and a few on the final play. I know both teams are operating at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with the Jags on a 8 game losing streak and the Steelers on a 9 game winning run! But considering that Jacksonville has no chance at a play off spot this game this is about as close as they come to a Super Bowl, and with that said, Im expecting a monumental effort from this crew here today. Remember the Steelers run D, has been smashed lately, and the Jags will key on that which will make for. grinding fairly low scoring affair in my eyes, which bodes well for us to stay within the number. Note: PITTSBURGH is 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992. The Steelers are 0-8 ATS L/8 as a road favorite of more than three points coming off a game where they covered by at least seven points. NFL Road favorites (PITTSBURGH) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 20-53 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville to cover |
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11-22-20 | Titans +6.5 v. Ravens | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
The Titans have not played since last Thursday Night (more than a week ago), so their exceptionally rested and well prepared for the Ravens. I know the Ravens are a great team , and because of recency bias ( Tennessee loss last time out) this line is just slightly bloated enough for me to recommend we grab the points with a under rated side . Note: opposing sides are 11-5 ATS (33% ROI) against the Ravens when quarterback Lamar Jackson is a home favorite. Meanwhile, Tennessee is 5-1 SUATS in away games after partaking on Thursdays, including 3-0 SU/ATS when they lost.
Play on Tennessee to cover |
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11-22-20 | Lions +3 v. Panthers | 0-20 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
The Detroit Lions will be primed to compete here as they look to rebound from a 4-5 start and make a run at the NFC playoff. With Carolina star running back Christian McCaffrey and possibly quarterback Teddy Bridgewater at less than 100%, the Lions look like viable underdogs in this spot vs a side that has lost 5 straight grueling games and are pretty beat up overall. Note:Carolina is allowing opponents to convert a league-high 55.3% of third down chances and Im betting Lions QB Stafford really takes advantage of their inadequacies. CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.CAROLINA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. CAROLINA is 0-7 ATS in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. DETROIT is 7-0 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons. NFLRoad teams (DETROIT) - after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games against opponent after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 48-20 ATS L/37 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit |
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11-22-20 | Eagles v. Browns -2.5 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
RBS Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined to rush for 230 yards last week, and now looking healthy again Im betting the Cleveland Browns pound away again this week and find holes against a Eagles inconsistent run D. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game against opponent after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games are 25-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 13.9 ppg. NFL Road underdogs vs. the money line (PHILADELPHIA) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season are 2-26 L/5 seasons for a 93% go against conversion rate with the average ppg diff clicking in at 9 ppg. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -158 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
Cardinal QB Kyler Murray threw a Hail Mary to win his last game on the final play and now this team is in a huge letdown spot vs a very hungry Seattle side that is desperate for a victory. Carroll is 12-2 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses as the coach of SEATTLE.Carroll is 6-0 ATS in home games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival as the coach of SEATTLE. Carroll is 24-6 ATS vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - good passing team - averaging 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after allowing 6.75 or more passing yards/attempt in 4 straight games are 26-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate with the average margin ppg diff clicking in at 8.5 ppg, which qualifies here on ATS level trend. NFL Underdogs or pick (ARIZONA) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 8-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seahawks to cover |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks UNDER 58.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show | |
Arizona and Seattle are both known for scoring and allowing a boatload full of points but the lines-makers have over compensated here according to my projections. These teams have not had a 57 or higher Total attached to their games that I can find in my data base going back over a 30 year span. It must noted that teams like Arizona that have scored 28 or more points in each of their last four tilts have gone under 16 straight times when at least three of those games went over and their opponent is not undefeated on the season. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (ARIZONA) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 89-48 UNDER L/37 seasons. Play UNDER |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | 19-13 | Loss | -121 | 83 h 44 m | Show | |
Im betting on the Bears top 10 ranked stop unit to be the difference makers here tonight on their own home field. I know the Vikings have won a couple in a row, but their problems according to my own data are extreme, especially considering there is a 78 yard diff between these Ds, and with that consideration Im recommending we take the points. Vikings are 0-12-1 ATS L/13 on the road off a game as a favorite of more than three points. The Vikings have struggled on the road when playing MFF tilts , recording a ugly 1-8 SU mark and 0-9 ATS record. Also the The Bears are 17-1-1 ATS L/19 as home dogs when coming off consecutive losses and going against a foe coming off a victory. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | 16-23 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 52 m | Show | |
The Seahawks just lost in ugly fashion by a 44-33 count last time out to Buffalo, and now because of recency bias are not being under appreciated here by bettors. But it must be noted that Seahawks QB Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss and as an underdog is is 23-9-2 ATS.In 2020, away pups off a loss are 26-15 ATS for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. So it wont be a hard decision to back Seattle here vs a Rams side, that is. just 4-15 ATS as single-digit division home favorites. Finally HC Pete Carroll of the Seahawks has been money in the bank of a SU loss as chalk, going 11-1 SU and 9-2-1 ATS L/12. Seattle to cover |
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11-15-20 | Chargers +1.5 v. Dolphins | 21-29 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 60 m | Show | |
Miami is surprising some pundits of late, and their QB Tua is the real deal, but a closer look at their numbers suggest some major issues, as they have been out yarded in their two most recent upset wins by -228 yards. Note:Miami is just 8-23-2 ATS as division home favorites when coming off consecutive victories and 1-6-2 ATS at home when coming off consecutive underdog wins. I know the bad luck Chargers may not inspire bettors but with a up and coming QB all star Hubert under center they must be respected in a tilt that promises to end in a reversal of fortunes. The Chargers are 6-0-1 ATS L/7 as road dogs of 7 points or less. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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11-15-20 | Bills +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-32 | Win | 101 | 50 h 43 m | Show | |
Buffalo after a huge 44-33 win vs Seattle last week, could find themselves starting slowly here but Im betting they will get untracked as the game goes on even if Josh Allen shoulder cant play. Meanwhile, As was the case last time out the Cardinal found a way to lose to Miami and are not quite in elite status and do not deserve to be home chalk. Yes, I know that Buffalo might be in a letdown state after that big output last week, but this Bills team is proving itself to be viable contenders and wont be an easy out here. With that said, I feel comfortable taking points. Note:“Home favorites like Arizona that are off a SU and ATS loss as a home favorite and are now going against a team that is off a SU and ATS win and has an average turnover margin of less than plus one per game are 0-25 ATS L/25, as long as the total is 35 or more. Play on Buffalo to cover |
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11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 51 | 12-37 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that this Total is almost a FG higher than my number 48 - thus giving us value on a under selection. Yes, I know the Broncos, have allowed an average of 35.7 points over its last three games , but this team is much better defensively than their current run would suggest, and offensively they are extremely inconsistent scoring 18 or less points in 5 of their 9 games dating back to last season. Meanwhile, Vegas has recently found a groove in their run game churning out 209-yard day against Cleveland and followed it up with 160 yard against the Chargers and will want to keep that formula in play which in turn should churn up alot of clock time which will help us cash a under ticket. Under is 5-1 in Raiders last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-7 in Raiders last 29 vs. AFC West. The Broncos are 0-10 UNDER coming off a road game where they scored more points than expected. Under is 10-3-1 in Broncos last 14 vs. AFC West. Under is 20-8-1 in Broncos last 29 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game Under is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings. Play UNDER |
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11-15-20 | Chargers v. Dolphins OVER 48 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
The bad luck Chargers just cant seem to get breaks, which makes them even more dangerous from a offensive perspective , as Im betting their young up and coming super star Hubert will go balls to the walls here this week in very aggressive fashion. The Chargers have gone over 12 straight times when they are off a defeat when facing a team with at least one victory and their ATS margin has dropped in each of their last two games with the Chargers averaging more than 31 ppg. This aggressiveness Im betting will force another up and coming star Tua Tagovailoa to respond on this Sunday stage in competitive fashion, which will help get this total combined score over the number. Over is 7-1 in Chargers last 8 road games. Over is 5-0 in Chargers last 5 games overall. Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Dolphins last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. Play on the OVER |
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11-15-20 | Bucs v. Panthers +6 | 46-23 | Loss | -107 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay came tumbling back down to earth last time out as they were scorched by New Orleans in last Sunday night’s 38-3 massacre. Thats the 2nd straight game the Bucs D has been smacked around . With that said Im betting on Panthers elite RB Christian McCaffrey who accumulated 151 total yards last time out vs a staunch KC D, to have another top tier performance here and be key to a cover by the home dog . . With Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater 11-1 ATS as a dog off a loss we have a viable option here with the host getting points. Play on the Carolina Panthers to cover |
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11-12-20 | Colts +1 v. Titans | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
Tonight Im betting on a the Colts side that are allowing only 1.25 passing TDs per game to have a bounce back performance off a loss last time out vs a strong Baltimore side. Indianapolis also has the No. 2 ranked run defense and with Darius Leonard back in the lineup and at 100% this Colts team looks dangerous. Tonight is a classic top tier offence vs defence matchup and as usually the case the D will be key to a win. Note: The Colts have won 19 of the last 23 meetings and get my support to turn the trick again. Colts are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home.Colts are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. AFC.Titans are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Tennessee has failed to cash 12 of their L/15 as home favorites when coming off a win of 7 or more points. Meanwhile, the Colts are 10-2 ATS iL/12 in Thursday night tilts as visitors and are 9-1 ATS as underdog after scoring fewer than 14 points in their last trip to the gridiron. Colts are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Tennessee.Colts are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 meetings.Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. Play on Indianapolis to cover |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
The Jets have not scored more than 10 points in any of their last four games and overall are ranked last in the NFL in third-down offense (28.0%) and red-zone offense (28.0%). I just dont see them suddenly eclipsing they're recent point total here this evening. Meanwhile,The Patriots rank 2nd in the NFL in the amount of times they run the ball recording a 50.1% clock consuming average and Im betting they continue to pound the ball here , even though the Jets’ strength on defense is stopping the run. Tonight Im expecting a grounding conservative game that will be played at a slow pace. This will result in a combined score that fails to eclipse this number. These teams have gone under in 7 of the L/8 meetings. New England has gone under in 4 straight MNF tilts. NYJ have gone under in 5 straight division home games. Under is 5-0 in Jets last 5 games as an underdog. Play UNDER |
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11-08-20 | Saints +4.5 v. Bucs | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 59 h 46 m | Show | |
The Saints must not be discounted here as underdogs according to my projections. The Saints’ last five games have all been one-score tilts with the Saints notching the victory in their their last three trips to the gridiron, I know TB are now public darlings with Tom Brady at the helm of the offence, but their has been progressively more Chinks in the armour of the future HOF. Hes missing snap counts, and not seeing the field as consistently as he once did and his team also looked flat as big favs vs the giants last week . Father time remains undefeated and these type of inconsistent efforts will become more frequent Im betting. Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 9. Buccaneers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite.Buccaneers are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Buccaneers are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 home games. Saints are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. HC Sean Payton is 34-12-2 ATS as a dog versus .500 or greater foes, including 19-2-1 ATS as a dog of more than 3 points. Play on the Saints to cover |
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11-08-20 | Steelers v. Cowboys UNDER 42 | 24-19 | Loss | -105 | 56 h 50 m | Show | |
Dallas has not scored more than 10 points in the three straight games and against this top tier Pittsburgh D, point production will be at a premium again for the Cowboys. Meanwhile, with Pittsburgh off a big win vs Baltimore last week, should be in a hang over mode and highly likely to start slowly which will contribute to this contest staying on the low side of the total. Steelers are 0-20-2 L/22 UNDER when they threw for less than 205 yards last game. The Steelers are 0-19-1 UNDER L/20 on the road facing a team below .500. Play UNDER |
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11-08-20 | Steelers v. Cowboys +14 | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show | |
The Steelers are off a huge win vs the Ravens last week and will be in an emotional letdown state and susceptible to a slow start here and mediocre performance vs a side that Im sure they are over looking . Teams like Pittsburgh off a victory as at least 3-point dogs where they forced 4+ turnovers are a long term bad bet going 121-151-7 ATS . NFL teams like Dallas on a 0-8 ATS run are 8-3 SU and 7-3-1 ATS at home with none of the these teams going 0-9 ATS through the first nine games of the season. Play on Dallas to cover |
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11-08-20 | Raiders v. Chargers -1 | 31-26 | Loss | -112 | 140 h 56 m | Show | |
Last week the Chargers fell apart late and gave up a DD lead to the Denver Broncos and lost on a last second FG . Meanwhile, the Raiders upset the Cleveland Browns on the road. The Raiders are 0-10 SUATS L/10 away versus opponents coming off a SU favorite loss. Add to that bad omen shows the Raiders are 2-5 SU/ATS away in division games when coming off a straight up away victory , including 0-3 SUATS when going against an opponent coming off a loss . Chargers are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Raiders are 0-14 ATS L/14 wen the total is at least five points higher than last game which they won. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LAS VEGAS) - after allowing 6 points or less last game against opponent after a loss by 3 or less points are 8-34 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate. NFL Road teams vs. the money line (LAS VEGAS) - off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 5-33 L/37 seasons. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons -4 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 37 m | Show | |
The Falcons have won two of three under interim coach Raheem Morris, who was promoted from defensive coordinator after Quinn was fired following an 0-5 start. With that said Im betting on a Confident Falcons offense roll here vs a Denver side that had to use up alot of energy last time out coming back from a DD deficit to notch a win on a last second FG vs the Chargers. Huge letdown spot for the Broncos vs Falcons offence that is clicking as is evident by notching 28 first down last week . Play on Atlanta |
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11-08-20 | Lions v. Vikings -4 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show | |
The Vikings have owned this series recently, garnering a 5-0 SUATS run in the last five meetings. With Lions QB Stafford probably not cleared to play this week, this selection seems even stronger from a projections standpoint. Vikings to cover |
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11-08-20 | Panthers +10.5 v. Chiefs | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
The Panthers enter this game off a loss and are now big road underdogs . Recency bias and the fact they will play a top tier side, has this line floating on value for advantage players. Considering QB Teddy Bridgewater is 16-2 ATS in his career as a road dog and the fact that road underdogs off a loss are 24-13 ATS this season for a 65% conversion rate we have a viable wagering opportunity. The Panthers are 9-0 ATS L/9 as a dog of more than a TD coming off a home game where they scored at least seven points less than expected. Play on Carolina Panthers to cover |
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11-08-20 | Giants +3 v. Washington Football Team | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show | |
The last time these teams played earlier this season, the Gmen squeaked out a win vs this Washington football team. Now in a game I have pegged as a pickem Washington is being made FG favs which does not matchup with my projections, thus giving us value on the underdog. I dont believe that Washington should be favs against any side other than the Jets. Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog and are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record and also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Meanwhile, Football Team are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. Football Team are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a bye week. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
The 49ers may not inspire bettors in their current inconsistent form and with the amount of injuries thy have recently sustained but they are 12-3 SU L/15 at home against the NFC North, including 7-1 SUATS when they own a .500-record or better. Meanwhile the Packers Aaron Rodgers is just 2-13 SU l/15 in away in non-division games during the month of November. Tonight I expect HC Shanahan to work around his teams abscences with a run heavy attack behind capable backups JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon vs a Green Bay side that just gave up 163 yards and three touchdowns to the Vikings . To me this line move favoring the Packers is just to exaggerated which gives us value with the home underdog. Packers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 9. 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in San Francisco. . Play on 49ers to cover |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants UNDER 45 | 25-23 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 51 m | Show | |
The Bucs are the obvious superior team here, and Im betting they take a early lead and keep grinding away to notch the victory. There will no need to open up and considering how dominating the Bucs defense is Im betting the Giants do very little scoring tonight which will help this combined score to stay on the low side of the total. Note: Home dogs of eight points or more are 19-55-1 to the UNDER over the L/8 seasons. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (TAMPA BAY) - after a game where they committed no turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers. are 44-14 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER
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11-01-20 | Cowboys +11 v. Eagles | 9-23 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
Finally the Cowboys decided to bench Dalton in favor of the young Ben DeNucci . Wow it is a little surprising how the Boyz have fallen from grace and are now being touted as DD dogs . I know they looked horrible against Washington last week but Im betting their better than that.Im not trying to sell hopeimism but there is now some hope and a fresh start for a group that has not played well since Dak Prescott went down. With that said, Im betting the coaching staff of the Cowboys will orchestrate a run heavy attack and move the chains with short passes more consistently vs a banged up Eagles D that struggles vs the run as was evident giving up 160 yards on the ground to the Gmen last week . It must be noted that the Eagles have not won by more than five points, so this is a huge disparity considering Philly has not covered a single game as favs this season as is evident by their 0-4 ATS mark while failing by an average of more than 10 ppg. The Cowboys are 8-0-1 ATS L/9 on the road coming off a away game where they allowed 24 or more points. PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS in home games vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The Eagles are 0-18 ATS L/18 coming off a home game where they allowed at least 130 rushing yards . NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DALLAS) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are 122-66 ATS L/37 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.
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11-01-20 | Chargers v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
I know Denver looked bad last time out vs Kansas City but this team according to my power rankings is greatly under rated and should not be underdogs vs a over rated Chargers side off a win vs lowly Jacksonville and getting to much recency bias respect. What was interesting in the lopsided loss to KC was that they out yarded the Chiefs by 125 yards. Note: . Teams that lost by 14 points or more points last game while outgaining their opposition by 99 yards or more are bankroll expanding 43-18-1 ATS. Today Im betting on the Broncos to pound the ball the ground and to make the Chargers work hard here in the high altitude of the Mile High City and to get us the cover. LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS L/6 after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 2 seasons. LA CHARGERS are 0-6 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread over the last 3 seasons.DENVER is 12-3 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rivals. Fangio is 9-2 ATS vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse as the coach of DENVER. Denver is 9-1-1 ATS at home as an underdog vs below .500 sides and have won 14 of the 18 meetings in this series straight up. Play on Denver to cover |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns -1 | 16-6 | Loss | -128 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
Cleveland QB Mayfield completed 20 straight passes and finished 22-of-28 for 5 TDs last week in a Cleveland win and is finally coming into his own in the NFL. Im betting on his arm to be the difference mkaer here this week vs a Vegas side that is allowing an average of 33 ppg and has lost 3 of their L/4 games and are off a dd beatdown last week at the hands of the Buccaneers. LAS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 3 straight games over the last 3 seasons.LAS VEGAS is 6-18 ATS in road games against AFC North division opponents. Gruden is 1-9 ATS after a loss by 21 or more points in all games he has coached since 1992. NFL team vs the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival against opponent off a home loss by 10 or more points are 30-4 SU L/10 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +9.4 ppg. Play on Cleveland Browns to cover |
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11-01-20 | Colts v. Lions UNDER 50 | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
The Colts consider themselves a run first side , but are averaging an NFL-low 3.6 yards per carry. "No question, this is our identity. We are committed to the run," Colts head coach Frank Reich said. "Now, we have not been committed to the run as much as we would've liked to. That's who we want to be. We want to run the football. So after a week of rest, Im betting we see the Colts getting down and dirty and pounding the ball alot more which Im betting shortens the game and helps us stay under the number. Teams are 0-18 UNDER L/18 coming off a win where the total was under 53 where Philip Rivers threw more than 35 passes with the average combined score clicking in at 35.39 ppg with no combined score exceeding 44 points. NFL Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (DETROIT) - with a poor passing D - allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt, after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 33-10 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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11-01-20 | Steelers +4.5 v. Ravens | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
This Steelers team is for real, and play the type of smash mouth football that the old steel curtain group would be proud of. I know Baltimore are and have been public darlings for a while because of their ability to pound opponents senseless and deliver consistent ATS victories, but according to my projections this game is closer to a pickem and screams value with the underdog in what could easily be a last second FG win for one of these sides. PITTSBURGH is 10-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons. Steelers are 14-4 SU and 16-1-1 ATS L/18 as underdogs of less than 7 points against opposition with an above .500 record. The Ravens are 0-11-2 ATS L/13 as a favorite coming off a game as a favorite where they allowed at least 24 points. Play on the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover |
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11-01-20 | Jets +20 v. Chiefs | 9-35 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 16 m | Show | |
Two teams at the opposite end of the performance spectrum. huge line divergence here and slight value make this a take. KANSAS CITY is 9-22 ATS L/31 after gaining 6 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games. The Chiefs are 0-10 ATS L/10 as a favorite off a game as a favorite where they gained less than 300 total yards and lost the last 3 SU. NFL Road teams (NY JETS) - off a home cover where the team lost as an underdog, winless on the season are 28-6 ATS L/37 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on NY Jets to cover |
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11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals +7 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
When these teams played a couple of weeks ago the Colts win 31-27 and Im betting on another closer game here. The Bengals are 10-0 ATS L/10 off a game as a dog that went over the total by at least seven points. TENNESSEE is 3-13 ATS L/16 in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CINCINNATI) - off an extremely close loss by 3 points or less to a division rival, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 31-9 ATS L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on The Bengals to cover |
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10-29-20 | Falcons v. Panthers OVER 51 | 25-17 | Loss | -112 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams played earlier this season, with the final score clicking in at 23-16 . That was a low scoring affair that should have been much higher scoring thanks to both sides finishing a combined 1-4 in the red zone. Now this week in the rematch Im betting both offenses tee off on each others below average defenses as is evident by the following numbers that show the Atlanta Falcons ranking 25th in defensive DVOA while the Carolina Panthers ranking 21st. My projections estimate that both sides will score 27+ points. Note:CAROLINA is 11-0 OVER ( when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 57.1 ppg.ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with the average of 13 games clicking in at 58.5 ppg. Play OVER |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 18 m | Show | |
The Rams rank 19th in red-zone offense and tonight against Chicago’s No. 2 red zone defense scoring will come at a premium. On the flip-side the Bears are averaging just 4.8 yards per play, tied for fourth-worst in the NFL which is not a good omen vs Rams D, that allows the second-fewest yards per game to opposing wide receivers, Remember the Bears offense without Allen Robinson looks lost. Also Bears Trubisky( 56.4) and Foles (49.9) QB rating also tells a story of futility. The only place I see vulnerabilities and offensive flow is with the Rams run defense but with the Bears ranking 28th in rush offense that also draws up a lack of vertical movement which will also translate into muted offensive output. Everything points to this. being a lower scoring affair.These two teams combined for an average 22.5 points per game total the last two meetings. Bears are 0-13-1 UNDER L/14 off a game as a dog where they rushed for less than 87 yards with a combined average of 33.57 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 55 | 34-37 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
The Cardinals behind young QB Murray are a short passing conservative team overall, and despite of the accolades from the media are not yet a prolific offensive squad. Believe me this team Cards team knows its limitations and here vs a Seattle team that can put points on the board in a hurry I expect them to implement a slower pace in an effort to keep the Seahawks offense off the field as much as possible, thus limiting overall point production in this tilt. Remember they ran for 261 yards last Monday night in their win vs Dallas and will primed to pound the ball again which will eat alot of clock time. Add to that my power ranking suggest the Arizona D, is very under rated and much better than the lines-makers estimate and we have an under edge here on this line. None of the Cards games have seen more than 52 combined points scored so this line seems bloated as compared to trends. Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in Week 7.Under is 4-0 in Seahawks last 4 games in October.Under is 9-2 in Seahawks last 11 games as a road favorite.Under is 3-1-1 in Seahawks last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games overall.Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games on grass.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 vs. NFC.Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 games following a straight up win.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in Week 7.Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games in October.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-1 in Cardinals last 5 home games. The Cardinals are 0-12 L/12 UNDER at home facing a team over .500 when they are off a game as a favorite. Play UNDER |
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10-25-20 | Steelers +1.5 v. Titans | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 50 h 47 m | Show | |
Im going to label this game in Tom We Trust. Pittsburgh under Mike Tomlin in his career versus undefeated opponents, owns a 5-1 SUATS record when both teams are undefeated. TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 . PITTSBURGH is 10-2 ATS vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse over the last 3 seasons.PITTSBURGH is 9-1 ATS after allowing 99 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 22-2 L/37 seasons for a 92% conversion rate. NFL team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) - off a blowout win by 28 points or more over a division rival against opponent after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 29-8 ATS L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Steelers to cover |
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10-25-20 | Steelers v. Titans OVER 50.5 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
Both the Steelers and the Titans are among the scoring leaders in the NFL. The Titans have averaged 32.8 points per game while the Steelers have averaged 31.2 ppg .In quarterback Ryan Tannehill’s( (13 touchdowns, 113.5 passer rating) 15 regular-season starts with the Titans, the over has hit 13 of 15 times and Im betting today that we see another over. the Titans have the best red zone unit in the league, getting points on 78 percent of their possessions and can make the best of Defensces look average. Meanwhile Pittsburgh veteran QB Roethlisberger is performing at a high level season so far, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns, one interception, and a 109 passer rating (sixth in NFL). Im betting the old guy has a field day ,against the Titans 28th ranked D in total passing yards allowed (1,364) and 30th in touchdown passes (13). Play OVER |
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10-25-20 | Panthers +7.5 v. Saints | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
New Orleans has not looked very cohesive this season and are barely above .500 with a 3-2 record on the season with just the one win by more than six points and nothing has come easy for them , and today laying this many points is not a favorable situation again. I know Carolina may not inspire bettors, but it must be noted that Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater, is 15-2 ATS as a underdog in his career. Teams like the Saints which are more than TD favorites which have a record of less than .625 of are 302-398-14 ATS . Long term divisional road dogs in the NFL are profitable bets - Divisional Road Dogs: 544-479-33 ATS. .New Orleans are 28-56 ATS since 1980 at home as favorite. Play on Carolina Panthers to cover |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys +1 v. Washington Football Team | 3-25 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
I know Dalton is not getting alot of respect from linesmakers despite of his vast NFL starting experience. /Yes, he looked horrible last time out in a 38-10 loss to the Cards. But in week 6 when he took over for Prescott he got the W for the Cowboys, and and is more than capable of a bounce back effort here today vs a suspect Washington football team. The NFC East is a bad division and at 2-4 the Cowboys are not out of a play off appearance, so their alot more motivated than the pundits might think. there is alot of talent in this Dallas lineup and a feel confident backing them here today as they look to get some long lost respect and dignity back. Note: Washington is 0-8-1 ATS L/9 coming off a road loss where they allowed at least 100 rushing yards which was the case last week. Dallas to cover |