Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-20 | Cowboys v. Washington Football Team OVER 44.5 | 3-25 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 36 h 48 m | Show | |
The Giants are really hyped for this national TV game in a key divisional confrontation. If they win they will be 2nd in the division so their motivation factors are clear. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is over rated and their one win vs a banged up 49ers team was not as impressive as one might think or the media might have us believe as is evident by their favorite status in 3 games this season in which they did not win. The Giants are 19-0 ATS L/19 vs a divisional opponent that has at least one victory on the season and has forced fewer than 1.2 turnovers and has allowed 70-plus rushing yards per game season-to-date with no loss coming by more than 3 points. NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. NY GIANTS are 10-0 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. The Giants are 10-0 ATS as road dogs when coming off a division home victory. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) - after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 5-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against for a 83% conversion rate. Play on NY Giants to cover |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 15 m | Show | |
Only 31 teams have failed to cover a single point spread through the first five weeks of a season. But here we are with Dallas on the edge of such a precipice. The good news for Boyz betting betting backers are that teams are 22-9 (ATS) under those perimeters, with underdogs like Dallas holding an even bigger edge cashing 19 of 25 times for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. It must also be noted that sides with sub par ATS records at 30% or less going against the teams with winning ATS records are 174-110-11 in Weeks 6-17 for a 61% conversion rate for bettors. I know top gun QB Dak Prescott is out for the Boyz, but his backup Andy Dolton has had top tier success in this league, and has a boatload full of experience and respected by his teammates making him a viable pivot to back in this spot vs a up-trending but still not top tier Arizona side, that is 0-7 ATS in Monday night affairs sporting a .500 or better record. Dallas is 5-1 ATS as a home dog dating back 40 seasons, and tonight Im betting they add to those positive numbers. DALLAS is 12-2 straight up against ARIZONA since 1992 Play on Dallas to cover |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills UNDER 57.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 69 h 11 m | Show | |
Im not letting recency bias take away from my own projections that estimate this total to be closer to 54 giving us top tier value with an under wager. v KC has gone under in 12 of their L/14 after playing the Raiders. Buffalo has gone under in 5 of their L/6 as conference home dogs. BUFFALO is 9-1 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 34.8 ppg scored.BUFFALO is 8-1 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 31.6 ppg scored. NFL Home teams against the total (BUFFALO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5 | 26-17 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 7 m | Show | |
The defending Super Bowl Champs suffered their first loss last time out against Las Vegas, and with that said it must be noted, that when that has happened in the past these elite teams are just 12-25 straight up in their following game . Thats not a good omen for the Chiefs vs a hungry Buffalo team with something to prove. Ill be taking points here all the way against Mahomes in company. |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 55 m | Show | |
Jimmy G had a crap game last week connecting on just 7 of 17 passes. However, he must not be counted out in his ability to bounce back even on a bum ankle. You have to remember Garoppolo is 25-8 in his career and 7-3 SU/8-2 ATS as a dog and 1-0 SU/ATS when hosting as a pup. Add to that the embarrassment associated with being benched , and you have a motivated talented competitor to deal with. Also after three straight home losses, the 49ers as a team will be ready to avert another embarrassing effort. There is not such thing as due, but Im betting on the Jimmy G train steaming into the proverbial station tonight and for the Niners to give the Rams more of a battle than the lines-makers expect them to. Play in San Francisco to cover |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 52 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 9 m | Show | |
Im betting on a rockem sockem hard fought affair that will be played fairly conservatively. I know after Miami upset the Niners and made their D, look lazy a huge bounce back effort will be on the agenda. Rams hardcore D, remains ready to adjust on the road here which Im betting leads to a lower scoring affair than the linesmakers expect. LA RAMS are 8-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 45 ppg going on the board. NFLHome teams against the total (SAN FRANCISCO) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 25-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams against the total (LA RAMS) - after 1 or more consecutive wins, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a losing record are 32-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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10-18-20 | Bears v. Panthers -1 | 23-16 | Loss | -106 | 45 h 9 m | Show | |
My projections make the Panthers -3 favs at home this week, thus giving us value on the line. Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in October.Panthers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in road games after the first month of the season over the last 2 seasons. CAROLINA is 6-0 ATS off a upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival are 2-28 L/10 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (CHICAGO) - off an upset win as a home underdog, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 29-63 ATS L/37 seasons for a 69% go against conversion rate. Play on the Carolina Panthers to win |
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10-18-20 | Browns +4 v. Steelers | 7-38 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh is 4-0 for first time since 1978 and 1979 but make no mistake this team is not a tough as the steel curtain group that dominated opponents and won Super Bowls, and are being over rated here based on recency bias. Meanwhile, Cleveland has finally gotten to a point where they deserve respect , behind top tier QB Baker Mayfield. With Browns bring sporting a 5-0 ATS record as division road underdogs of 7 or less points Im betting they bring the heat here in this important early season game and get us the cover.
Play on Cleveland to cover |
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10-11-20 | Vikings v. Seahawks -7 | 26-27 | Loss | -102 | 35 h 3 m | Show | |
Seattle has owned this series in the recent past winning 6 of the L/7 meetings. The Vikings are 0-10 ATSL/10 coming off a win as a dog where they scored at least 24 points. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS L/8 coming off a win as a dog where they gained at least 400 yards. NFL Favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 23-1 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.8 which qualifies for a ATS selection. NFL- Road underdogs vs. the money line (MINNESOTA) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better are 1-25 L/10 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at -13.3 which qualifies under a ATS selection. Play on Seattle to cover |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 69 h 26 m | Show | |
Indianapolis is 1-9 SUL/10 on the AFC North road, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 SU/ATS when coming off a victory. Considering Cleveland actually looks viable and up-trending in my power rankings Im betting on them bringing us home cash here tonight. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) - off a upset win as an underdog, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better) are 32-6 L/37 seasons for a 84% conversion rate. Play on Cleveland to cover |
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10-11-20 | Dolphins v. 49ers UNDER 50.5 | 43-17 | Loss | -103 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
Miami QB Fitzpatrick has thrown five interceptions, tied for third most in the NFL. His passer rating ranks 28th and now this week I expect he will be out to protect the ball and make shorter smarter passes buoyed by his teams running game which Im betting eats up alot of clock time. Meanwhile, the Niners struggled on the offensive line last week, allowing 16 pressures, which is not a good omen for offensive flow here today. With that said, Im betting this number is just a bit bloated and should be closer to 47.5/ giving us value to the under. Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable Sunday vs Miami ( Ankle ) and if he does play will be less than 100%. MIAMI is 34-19 UNDER versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play with a combined average of 45.1 ppg scored.MIAMI is 27-10 L/37 UNDER in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. Play on the UNDER |
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10-11-20 | Raiders +12.5 v. Chiefs | 40-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
Raiders-Chiefs has long been one of the NFL's bitter rivalries. The teams have met 122 times since their days together in the AFL, and the animosity has been there regardless whether the Raiders played in Oakland, Los Angeles or now Las Vegas. With that said, Im betting on this being a closely contested and very physical game. NFL Home favorites of 10.5 or more points (KANSAS CITY) - after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, in weeks 5 through 9 are 14-44 ATS L/37 seasons for a 75% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on LAS Vegas to cover |
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10-11-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. Steelers | 29-38 | Loss | -120 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
Philadelphia after floundering for much of their earlier games finally got things going with a impressive 25-20 win over San Francisco as 8 point dogs . It must be noted that the Eagles are 9-0-1 ATS L/10 covering by more than 10 ppg off a game as a dog where they covered. Meanwhile, last time out the Steelers, came back to beat Houston 28-21 covering as short chalk. But its interesting to note the Steelers are just 0-8 ATS L/8 as a favorite of more than three points off a game as a favorite that they covered. the Eagles look to be up-trending following a ugly start and thanks to a defense that's nearly Pittsburgh's equal when it comes to getting after the quarterback we have value taking points . .... take the points with the under rated underdog vs a very big public favorite. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 45 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show | |
Tom Brady and company have accumulated a whopping 97 points (32.3 points per game) in their L/3 trips to the gridiron. Knowing this Im betting on the Bears coming up with a very conservative game plan here on the road and try to slow this tilt down to a crawl. Note: With Tarik Cohen out for season the Bears offense in no way behind QB Foles is going to be fluid. (The Bears ran for just 28 yards last week) Also with Buccaneers WRs Chris Godwin (hamstring) and Mike Evans (ankle) missing this week TBs offense may not be as fluid. CHICAGO is 12-4 UNDER in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 34.6 ppg. Play UNDER |
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10-05-20 | Falcons +7 v. Packers | 16-30 | Loss | -111 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
These teams record are the polar opposite of each other with the Packers at 3-0 and the Falcons at 0-3. Truth is though neither side is as good or bad as their records might indicate. Bottom line here is the Falcons behind star QB Ryan will be able to move the ball fluently vs a Packers defense that has allowed an NFL-worst 6.9 yards per play so far this season. I know Atlantas defence and coaching have looked atrocious from a defensive perspective blowing tow huge DD leads for losses, but getting points in this situation behind an explosive offense has me taking points here tonight. GREEN BAY is 8-20 ATS in home games versus terrible defensive teams - allowing 6 or more yards/play since 1992.ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS after allowing 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games since 1992. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -7 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 50 m | Show | |
The deep Niners rallied around backup QB Nick Mullens last week as the pivot was 25-of-36 for 343 yards and was exceptional in key down situations. I cannot say the same about Carson Wentz of the Eagles. Traveling from East to west is not an easy task especially in a letdown state after a come from behind 23-23 OT tilt last week. Niners all the way here. The Eagles are 1-5 ATS L/6 seasons as road dogs against NFC West opposition. NFL away teams, following an overtime tie like the Philadelphia Eagles – are 0-15 SU dating back 32 seasons. NFL Home teams vs. the money line (SAN FRANCISCO) - team with a turnover diff. of +0.75/game or better against a team with a diff of -0.75/game or worse, after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better are 27-1 L/10 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average margin deficit clicking in at +12.8 ppg which qualifies under this side call. Play on San Francisco to cover |
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10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 50 h 20 m | Show | |
I know we have to good QBs on the field today with Carr and Allen taking snaps, but because of this and some recency bias we have a total that is bloated and only good for public consumption. BUFFALO is 9-0 UNDER vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 30.2 ppg scored. McDermott is 6-0 UNDER in road games after a win by 6 or less points as the coach of BUFFALO with a combined average of 33 points per game going on the board. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (LAS VEGAS) - after 1 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 22-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders +3.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 50 h 14 m | Show | |
The Bills built a 28-3 lead last week vs the Rams before running out of gas, and finally had to come from behind in their last drive of the game to come up with a win. Now winded and in a emotional letdown spot, Im betting the Raiders who will be primed to bounce back off a loss to make a game out of this here in Vegas in their new diggs and get us the cover. NFL Favorites (BUFFALO) - off a home win, in the first month of the season are just 43-81 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 65% for bettors. Raiders are 5-0 SU L/5 meetings in this series. Play on Las Vegas to cover |
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10-04-20 | Colts v. Bears +3 | 19-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
Acquired from Jacksonville in the offseason, Foles took over in the third quarter at Atlanta last week and threw three touchdowns in the fourth as Chicago wiped out a 16-point deficit to win 30-26 and now the team feels confident and re-energized and are viable home underdogs here today. |
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10-04-20 | Jaguars +3 v. Bengals | 25-33 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 30 m | Show | |
Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow gets little to no protection from his offensive line. The kid was sacked 8 times last week and the pressure he faces from DLs is fascinatingly ugly. This no 1 draft pick spends more time on his back than a Bunny Ranch sub -contractor. After getting public money and being favored in both their games so far this season and falling flat on their faces, I wont be surprised if their upset again, and more importantly I really dont believe they should be chalk against anyone in the NFL just yet despite of the promise of their young pivot. Note: The Jags are 9-0-3 ATS against the AFC North while the Bengals are 0-4 ATS L/4 vs AFC south as hosts. NFL Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 49-20 L/37 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Jacksonville Jags to cover |
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10-04-20 | Browns +5 v. Cowboys | 49-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show | |
10-01-20 | Broncos v. Jets UNDER 41.5 | 37-28 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
Denver and the NY Jets have showed very little flow on offence this season. Denver ranks 30th in DVOA and the NY Jets ranks 31st in DVOA. Both sides have offensive ,line and QB issues, not a good recipe for a high scoring affair, which favors the under. DENVER is 6-0 UNDER in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.2 ppg going on the board. DENVER is 7-0 UNDER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons for a combined average of 33.9 ppg scored. NY JETS are 6-0 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 33 ppg going on the score board. NFL Home teams against the total (NY JETS) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after 3 straight losses by 10 or more points are 26-6 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rate. Play UNDER |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 9 m | Show | |
I really feel comfortable taking points with the Chiefs . You have to remember Mahomes has in his pro football career never lost a game in the month of September , going 9-0 SU and must be respected getting points here vs a huge public favorite in Baltimore. Baltimore is 0-10 ATS as a single-digit favorite when coming off consecutive SUATS victories. Chiefs’ 11-0 ATS mark away off consecutive wins when facing AFC. KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. NFL Underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate. NFL Road underdogs or pick (KANSAS CITY) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 25-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play on KC Chiefs to cover |
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09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 7 m | Show | |
Saints lost to Vegas last time out, which to some was surprising. I was not surprised after an emotional win vs Tom Brady in week one that had the Saints in a let down state vs aa Raiders side that wanted to make a big impression out of the gate in their new diggs. Now Im betting QB Drew Bress will be ready to bounce back here against a Green Bay team getting alot of media play after huge offensive outputs in their first two tilts. It must be noted that Saints QB Brees is 24-10 ATS in his career in non-division games when coming off a non-division defeat and the Saints are a perfect 8-0 SUATS in their last eight home games on Sunday night football. Payton is 20-10 ATS against NFC North division opponents as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 34-17 ATS off a non-conference game as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. Payton is 28-13 ATS off a road loss as the coach of NEW ORLEANS. NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a division rival, in September games are 18-47 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. New Orleans to cover |
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09-27-20 | Cowboys +5 v. Seahawks | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 25 m | Show | |
Seattle QB Russell Wilson has looked explosive in the early going this season and Dallas has been less than sizzling and that in part is why we getting an off line to bet into here with the underdog Cowboys. It also must be noted that the Seahawks despite of their offensive fireworks behind a deep flow offense has been blitzed defensively and out-gained in each of their two wins as is evident by allowing a whopping 970 yards . Key to this game: Dallas leads the NFL with 41 plays of 10 yards or more through the first two games. Seattle has allowed the most plays of 10 yards or more with 47. Cowboys are a live dog based on current status of both sides real data. DALLAS is 16-4 ATS in road games after trailing in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half since 1992. (They came back big last time and carry that momen tun into this tilt) McCarthy is 14-4 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite in all games he has coached since 1992. NFLHome favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-25 ATS L/37 years for a go against 89% conversion rate for bettors. NFLUnderdogs or pick (DALLAS) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 7 or more passing yards/attempt last game are 28-5 ATS L/10 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Dallas to cover |
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09-27-20 | Bengals +4.5 v. Eagles | 23-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show | |
The Bengals have had success for their betting backers in this series covering 10 straight times and get my support here again today.PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons. Im not liking what I see from the Eagles so far, and according to my power rankings this game should be closer to the FG thus giving us a line advantage edge. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | 23-23 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show | |
Both teams have been plagued by injuries on the offensive line and because of this Im betting offensive flow will be hampered here this week. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score clicking in at 40.4 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 UNDER in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 37.8 ppg scored. Pederson is 8-1 UNDER in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread as the coach of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average score of 35.8 ppg going on the board. CINCINNATI is 9-1 UNDER in road games off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992 with a combined average of 32.2 ppg scored. NFL Home teams against the total (PHILADELPHIA) - off an upset loss by 14 points or more as a favorite are 24-2 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 92% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
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09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
Quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills - a team previously known for having a defense-first reputation now look to have an offense to go with their defense and good easily be in my humble opinion dark horse for a super bowl win. Don't laugh to loud, but it took him some time but Allen after looking NFL ready in his final College campaign with Wyoming is finally coming of age after a slow start to his career as is evident by his 729 yards passing, which ranks the Bills first in yards passing, third in yards gained and are tied for sixth in scoring 58 points. Im a believer and will take my stand with them today at home as short favs. BUFFALO is 21-9 ATS against NFC West division opponents since 1992. NFL Underdogs vs. the money line (LA RAMS) - off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a close wins by 7 points or less over a division rival are 2-27 L/10 seasons for a go against 93% conversion rate. Play on Buffalo to win |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins +3 v. Jaguars | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
Miami has started their season at 0-2 despite of a big game vs Buffalo last week where they almost pulled off the upset. Note: QB Fitzpatrick is 7-0-1 ATS in his last eight games as a underdog when coming off consecutive losses. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have played like their hair is on fire in their first two games, behind franchise QB Minshew and could easily be energetically drained making them susceptible to being upset as favs. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MIAMI) - poor defense from last season - allowed 5.4 or more yards/play, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 22-4 ATS L/37 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home favorites (JACKSONVILLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 3-24 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 89% conversion rate. Play on the Miami Dolphins to cover |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +5.5 | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 85 h 44 m | Show | |
The Las Vegas Raiders debut at Allegiant Stadium this Monday night will come against the explosive New Orleans Saints who took out Tom Brady and company last week. .The Saints now in a letdown spot are 0-5 ATS on the Monday Night road tilts when coming off a victory. Im betting a very motivated Raiders side to play lights-out here and get us a cover as home dogs. Play on the LV Raiders to cover |
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09-20-20 | Patriots +4 v. Seahawks | 30-35 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
Seattle looked amazing last week and really exploded in their win vs Atlanta. But it must be noted that HC Carrol is is just 0-4 ATS in his NFL career as a home favorite against AFC East foes when they are off a victory. Meanwhile, Belichick is 22-9 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of NEW ENGLAND and must not be disrespected here this week. SEATTLE is 8-19 ATS off an upset win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1992. Seattle is 1-4 ATS L/5 at home in this series as favs. NFL Home favorites (SEATTLE) - team with a poor scoring defense last season - allowed 24 or more points/game, after scoring 30 points or more last game are 2-24 ATS L/37 seasons for a 92% go against conversion rate for bettors. Play on the New England Patriots to cover |
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09-20-20 | Vikings +3 v. Colts | 11-28 | Loss | -106 | 69 h 38 m | Show | |
The Vikings lost last week and now they are in a bounce back mode. It must be noted that the Minnesota Vikings are 19-3-1 ATS in games off a loss under HC Mike Zimmer when facing non-division opposition. This is two good of a team to lay down again this week and get my support getting points vs a good but slightly over rated Colts team. Zimmer is 30-19 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of MINNESOTA. NFL Road underdogs or pick (MINNESOTA) - poor defense from last season - allowed 335 or more total yards/game, after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game are 24-3 ATS L/37 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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09-20-20 | Falcons +4.5 v. Cowboys | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 50 h 55 m | Show | |
QB Matt Ryan played a great game last despite of his team losing to Seattle,. He connected on 37-of 54 for 450 yards and two TDs and according to my O-line/QB vs D-line/secondary power rankings matches ups well in this matchup vs Dallas. Dallas’ 0-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of 7 or less. points . NFL Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - excellent passing team from last season - averaged 275 or more passing yards/game, after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in their last game are 21-3 ATS L/37 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Atlanta to cover |
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09-17-20 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43.5 | 30-35 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
The Browns averaged just 4.5 yards per play in offence and scored just 6 points in Week 1 while the Bengals produced data that came in at 4.4 yards per play and just 13 points . Im betting both sides offensive woes will continue here this Thursday night and this total will stay on the low side of the number. Week one and two non divisional games have been ATMs for totals bettors hotting the under as is evident by a 44-23-1 record dating back to the 2005 season for a 66% conversion rate. Under is 8-1-1 in Bengals last 10 games as a road underdog. Under is 5-0 in Browns last 5 Thursday games. Under is 15-5-1 in Browns last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Under is 20-7 in Browns last 27 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Under is 5-1-1 in the last 7 meetings in Cleveland. Play UNDER |
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09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos +3 | 16-14 | Win | 103 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
The Titans reached the AFC championship game last season thanks to a second-half surge that followed a shutout loss in Denver in which coach Mike Vrabel benched Marcus Mariota for Ryan Tannehill. For whatever reason it seems that this Titans franchise has not faired well vs the Broncos and have now lost the last 4 road meetings in this series straight up dating back to 1992. Note: the key to the Titans offence is Derrick Henry who was the NFL's rushing leader last season with 1,540 yards, but he has struggled in two games against Denver. Henry ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec. 11, 2016, and he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That easily was Henry's worst game last season. I know the Titans now want payback, but it will not come easily vs a side that maybe vastly under rated by the linesmakers here tonight with QB Drew Lock under center. Remember when this line opened the Broncos were 3 point favs and now its turned all the way around to Tennessee being favored. Just to much of swing in my humble opinion and now Im taking the Broncos plus the points. Denver to cover |
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09-14-20 | Steelers v. Giants UNDER 46 | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 80 h 53 m | Show | |
New York has revamped one of the NFL's worst defenses under new coordinator Pat Graham. Defence will now be their priority behind what is expected to be a slower paced offence that will key on using RB Barkley to move the chains consistently. Meanwhile ,the Steelers Im betting will have flow problems behind the wobbled Roethlisberger who returns after another season of injuries. It must also be noted The Steelers led the NFL with 54 sacks, 18 fumble recoveries and 38 takeaways last season, finishing ranked fifth overall on defense and that will Im betting remain consistent in a tilt I have projected to stay under the the total. PITTSBURGH is 7-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. Play UNDER |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Rams | 17-20 | Loss | -120 | 58 h 32 m | Show | |
The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy, with quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott leading an offense that was one of the NFL's best last season and now tonight in this big Sunday nighter Im betting they get the road win. Rams are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Play on Dallas to cover |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals +7 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 53 h 19 m | Show | |
SF is a fine team, but could easily be in hangover mode here after last seasons Super Bowl loss. It must be noted the defending Super Bowl loser in Game One of the season as a dog or favorite of 8 or less points if they are facing a division opponent are 0-10 ATS L/32 seasons. Also Arizona has played the 49ers tough of late covering the last 3 meetings and are much improved side. Once again its important to note that Game One division underdogs who won eight or fewer games last season are 39-10-1 ATS. |
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09-13-20 | Bucs +3.5 v. Saints | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 17 m | Show | |
In each of HC Arians his past 11 seasons , his teams have ranked in the Top Ten passing attacks in football , and now with Future Hall of Famer Tom Brady under center that will happen again . Today against a New Orleans side that has a tendency of starting slow as is evident by a 0-6 ATS first game record the L/6 years I look for Brady and the Bucs offence to be fluent enough to cover vs another future Hall of Fame QB Drew Brees . Note: Brady is 36-16-1 ATS NFL career mark as an underdog and gets my support getting points in this key spot play. Tampa Bay to cover |
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09-13-20 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +6 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show | |
09-13-20 | Jets +7 v. Bills | 17-27 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
“It’s very challenging to prepare for a Gregg Williams defense because of just all the things that he has,” Bills offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said. “Not just the different calls but the different packages that he has with his players.” This statement is key to how Im looking at this game, which makes getting points according to my projections an important factor. Jets’ own a money making 16-5-2 ATS record in road openers, including 5-0 ATS when seeking revenge in a division tilt. Jets QB Josh Allen is 3-5 ATS in his career as a home favorite in the NFL action, and is getting far to much respect here on this line. NY Jets to cover |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
With some game time PTSD , permeating the sidelines of the Chiefs as they remember going down 21-0 to this same Texas team in last years play offs before mounting a huge comeback win . Now with that in mind Im betting the Chiefs to be primed for a fast start and build a substantial lead. At that point QB Mahomes would be directed by Reids side line coaching crew to take the foot off the proverbial pedal and for the Chiefs defense to go hog wild on Deshaun Watson as he is forced to open up and go down field. Reid is 9-1 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average score of 40.1 ppg scored and is 15-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 38.2 ppg. Play UNDER |
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02-02-20 | 49ers +1.5 v. Chiefs | 20-31 | Loss | -103 | 76 h 19 m | Show | |
SF HC Shanahan, has gone 21-5 . SU with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB , and overall the 49ers have the edge in rush offense, rush defense and pass defense. I know the best player on the field is considered to be young QB super star Patrick Mahomes, but the complete package is on the side he is facing today. Considering the Chiefs were down by two TDs to the Pats , and were down 24-0 to the Texans, and 10-0 to the Titans, the feeling here for me here is, that as explosive as the Chiefs are there karmic regression is coming and their consistent flirting with disaster is essentially going to bite them on the proverbial butts vs a side that if in the lead will grind them into the ground via a concerted ground attack. All in all Im all in here on the 49ers being this years super bowl champs. Play on the SF 49ers to cover |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs UNDER 54.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show | |
Super Bowl LIV - Hard Rock Stadium - Miami Gardens, FL I know most bettors who look at this Super Bowl matchup see a back and forth see saw offensive affair taking place. However, after watching how extraordinarily tough the 49ers D is and how this team plays (run baby run ball) whether behind or ahead it gives me pause in my assessment of this total and its value to the under . I also dont see alot of penalties called here today by the officiating crew, which will result in less first downs and offensive flow and that will directly effect output. Note: KC HC Reid is 20-5 UNDER when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest in all games he has coached since 1992 with the combined average score of those games , clicking in at 39 ppg. NFL team against the total (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 28 or more points total in their last three games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 37-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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01-19-20 | Packers +7.5 v. 49ers | 20-37 | Loss | -130 | 151 h 50 m | Show | |
After being embarrassed by a 37-8 count by the SF 49ers back in November, Im betting the Packers learned a great deal from thier humiliation and will be prepared to bounce back here and make a game of this behind a defence that prior to win vs Seattle last week had held their L/5 regular season opponents to an average of 14.2 ppg. The Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, has been a bankroll expanding 11-6 ATS (24.9% ROI), as an underdog this season while the 49ers have seen underdogs cash at a 11-5-1 ATS clip against them this season. LaFleur was the offensive coordinator for Shannahan on three separate teams in his career and knows him as well or better than anyone in football. Green Bay to cover |
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01-19-20 | Titans +7.5 v. Chiefs | 24-35 | Loss | -118 | 79 h 39 m | Show | |
We all know how explosive the Chiefs offence is , but Im sure the Titans plan is to try to keep QB Patrick Mahomes off the field as much as possible by pounding the rock on the ground via Derrick Henry . It must be noted that the Titans offense has averaged 198 rushing yards per game with him hugging the ball over his last 8 games (5.9 yards per carry) . Odds are highly likely that more success is on board this Sunday vs a Chiefs D, that has allowed 4.9 yards per carry and were ranked 29th in defensive rushing DVOA. TENNESSEE is 6-0 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons. Reid is 4-13 ATS in home games against AFC South division opponents in all games he has coached since 1999. Teams like the Titans off breaking the 100-yard plateau on the ground, 29-16 SU and 31-13-1 ATS in the followup and are a bankroll expanding 20-5 ATS for their backers against opposition coming off a big double-digit win like the Chiefs achieved . Also, underdogs +7 or more have gone 37-26-1 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs, including 9-2 ATS in conference championships or later. Add to that NFL teams who are off scoring 40 or more points in a playoff game like KC are 1-14-1 ATS L/15 as chalk dating back 24 seasons. Play on the Tennessee Titans to cover |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | 23-28 | Loss | -116 | 105 h 14 m | Show | |
I know the public sees a shootout when they look at the starting QB situation, but what I see is two defences, that will be prepared to grind it out today in the cold tundra air of Northern Wisconsin. For long stretches this season, the Packers have struggled to score consistently, despite the reputation of their stud Qb Rodgers who has by the way according the metrics, not performed as well as he did earlier on his career, as is evident by a almost a full yard regression , 8.2 yard per play output in the first decade of his career , and a 7.3 ypp output in recent seasons. Meanwhile, Colin Wilson the Seattle star QB , is dealing with injuries on his offensive line, with his top center and left tackle injured, which has tempered his teams offensive output of late as was evident when they scored only 17 points last weeks win vs Philadelphia to advance and their 13 and 21 point respective output in their two previous tilts. GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 39.5 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games this season with a combined average 36.2 ppg scored.GREEN BAY is 7-0 UNDER after a 2 game road trip over the last 3 season with a combined average of 35 ppg scored. SEATTLE L/13 in a road game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 42.7 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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01-12-20 | Texans v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 31-51 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 26 m | Show | |
AFC Divisional Playoffs Bottom line here today is that Arrowhead at the best times is a tough place to play in for both the home side and visitors. Here at home since Andy Reid came to town to coach the Chiefs t have gone under at a 36-22-1 clip including playoffs for a 20.9% Return on Investment. Part of that is the difference in their offensive output at home as compared to their offensive production away from Arrowhead. Dating back 6 seasons, the Chiefs have scored about a FG less at home, which has resulted in a combined 43.4 ppg output on average, as compared to more than 51 combined points in away games. Thats a huge difference . Add to that Outdoor NFL play off games games have been going under more often than not notching a 75-56-4 UNDER record for a close to 11% return on investment and you can see which way Im leaning here as I go directly against media and public perceptions. HOUSTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 38 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 8-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons. with a combined average of 38.6 ppg scored. Play UNDER |
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01-11-20 | Titans +10 v. Ravens | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 84 h 26 m | Show | |
All season long the Ravens have had the pedal to the metal.All season long I could not get the feeling out of my head, that they would eventually run out of gas before hitting the proverbial finish line. So here they are in their first play off game of the season , as a huge public favorite , going up against a upstart group Tennessee group fresh off a upset of the New England Pats. Bottom line :The Titans with momentum and confidence on their sides. and a physical defense and strong running game are a team built to compete with a side like the Ravens. It must also be noted that since QB Ryan Tannehill became the starter, the Titans are 7-3-1 ATS for an impressive 35.4% ROI. But about football god, QB Lamar Jackson, he surely can make this a cake walk. I say hold your horses, on that concept, as road underdogs are 8-3 ATS for a 41% Return on Investment against the Ravens in Jackson’s starts under center. Play on the Titans to cover |
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01-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. 49ers | 10-27 | Loss | -109 | 80 h 37 m | Show | |
I have said all season long, that the Vikings were going to be a dark horse favorite of mine entering the play offs, because of their hardcore work ethic, and bruising defense, and ability to play up to opponents and hand out a smash mouth type of performance. I know the public just loves SFs super star QB Jimmy G, but like the old saying goes defense travels well, and here today against a 49ers side, that not seen play off football for a while, the wheels may come off at the worst possible time. Look for QB Cousins of the Vikings to do just enough to help us get the cover today. Dating back 16 seasons Divisional Round road underdogs are 36-24-1 ATS for a 16.3% Return on investment . Minnesota s HC Mike Zimmer dating back 5 seasons has been a ATM for Vikings betting backers when going up against non-divisional foes recording a massive bankroll expanding 44-19-1 ATS record for a 35.4% ROI. NFL Home teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - off a road win against a division rival, a top-level team (75% or more ) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-26 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Minnesota Vikings to cover |
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01-05-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles UNDER 45 | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Philadelphais hard core defense and a offence that will be primed to the run ball and make this a gridning affair in the trenches has me firmly on the under. PHILADELPHIA is 6-0 UNDER in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. this season. PHILADELPHIA is 7-0 UNDER in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 11-3 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.Pederson is 10-0 UNDER in home games off a division game as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. Pederson is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing 7.5 or less yards per return as the coach of PHILADELPHIA. ( all the above totals averages were below this listed total) Carroll is 9-2 UNDER in road games against NFC East division opponents as the coach of SEATTLE. Play UNDER |
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01-05-20 | Vikings +9 v. Saints | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 46 m | Show | |
NFC Wild Card Playoffs I firmly believe that the Vikings are dark horse playoff contenders, and Im will to put my money where my mouth his here today vs the mighty Saints. The big concern with New Orleans is their D, and despite of their good over lying numbers, the metrics tell a different story, as they have been torched for 28 or more more points in 3 of their L/6 games. Vikings HC Mike Zimmer, responds owns a 43-18-2 ATS career record in non-division tilts, including 18-3-1 ATS when coming off a loss which they did in their last game of the regular season. The Vikings are also 13-0 ATS L/13 covering my more than 12 ppg as a dog when their opponent is off two double-digit win and they are not off a double-digit win. NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games off a division game over the last 3 seasons. MINNESOTA is 19-9 ATS in dome games over the last 3 seasons. NFL Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, in the second half of the season are 13-35 ATS L5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road win against a division rival, a top-level team (75% or better) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 7-25 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Minnesota to cover |
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01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 63 h 36 m | Show | |
The Pats may not be a real Super Bowl contender this season, and Tom Brady may have lost a few steps as Father Time catches up to him . However, this experienced New England team is more than capable of knocking off a Tennessee team that did not play against the Pats this season, and have no real gauge as to handle their attack or perceived weaknesses, other than film and scouting reports. The same can be said for Beliichik and company, but it must noted that the Pats are 17-1 SU in playoff games behind Bill Belichick in games against opponents they did not face during the regular season. It must also be noted that QB Ryan Tannehill has no experience in the play offs while, Tom Brady is the god of play off football, and is always one patented series of plays away from a key TD,making the Pats the side to back today. Hey guys I know recency bias comes into play here as NE looks horrendous last week vs Miami. However, as outlandish as it might sound I would not be surprised if Bellichick and company really wanted to win last week as badly as many might have thought and instead were playing possum. I know , this sounds like a whacky conspiracy theory , but this HC is a football and mad genius like no other , and who. knows where his degenerate thoughts go. He's proven he is not beyond doing anything to win games and this might be his physiological peace de resistance . Time will tell, but Im betting on the Pats to advance and more importantly cover in a short line. The Titans are 2-22 ATS L/24 when they are off a win and they are facing a team allowed more than 370 total yards in their last game. NEW ENGLAND is 31-10 ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) in the second half of the season since 1992. NEW ENGLAND is 20-8 ATS in home games against AFC South division opponents since 1992. Play on the NE Pats |
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01-04-20 | Bills v. Texans OVER 43.5 | 19-22 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
AFC Wild Card Playoffs The lines-makers are estimating this will be a very close. game and I agree as my projections estimate each team will score in the vicinity of 20 points each. Note: BUFFALO is 8-0 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average 54.6 ppg going on the board.HOUSTON in their L/22 tilts when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 3 seasons a combined average of 57.3 ppg scored. In a coin flip game that could be won by a late FG or OT, the total looks much more viable than the side. Play OVER |
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12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 37 | 10-28 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
The Baltimore Ravens have already clinched the top seed in the AFC playoffs and will rest several key starters, including quarterback Lamar Jackson, in Sunday's regular-season finale so needless to say the very capable defence of the Steelers should have a very good day . Meanwhile, behind less than dynamo back up QBs, the Steelers have not done much offensive damage this season, and despite of Devlin Duck Hodges going 4-1 its been his conservative efforts and his D, that has helped him to a positive record. Note: : All game 16’s tilts involving 2 above .500 sides are 13-2 UNDER L/5 seasons. The L/5 Steelers/Ravesn meetings have gone under with the average combined score clicking in at 35.6 ppg. BALTIMORE is 7-0 UNDER in home games after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs with a combined average of 31 pig scored. ( Thishappened in a 31-15 win vs Cleveland last week) BALTIMORE is 7-0 L/7 UNDER after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite with the combined average score of 25.4 ppg going on the board. NFLHome teams where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points (BALTIMORE) - team outrushing opponents by 40+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 175 or more rushing yards last game are 38-11 UNDER L/37 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-29-19 | Saints v. Panthers +14 | 42-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
Everyone just loves the Saints. After all they are exciting to watch, but it must be noted that they are just 2-5 ITS the last seven games since their bye week and have some flaws. The Saints are also just 1-7 ATS K/8 as a favorite of 13 points or more vs sub .500 opposition, and just 4-15 ATS as double-digit favourite in division tilts . I know Carolina looked terrible last week in. a loss , but are a solid 7-0 ATS at home after scoring less than 7 points last time out. Im betting they give the Saints a fight this week and get us the cover. CAROLINA is 9-1 ATS as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points since 1992. NFL Underdogs or pick (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 49 or more points total in their last seven games are 28-7 ATS L/5 37 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Carolina to cover |
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12-29-19 | Dolphins v. Patriots -16 | 27-24 | Loss | -117 | 17 h 32 m | Show | |
New England will grab the No. 2 AFC seed with a victory today vs the visiting Miami Dolphins.The Patriots beat the Dolphins 43-0 on Sept. 15, proving how well they matchup against the Fins. Im expecting the Pats to be ready to hammer the Fins here again today as they need a win here and a tune up for the play offs at the same time. NFL team (MIAMI) - average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a good defense (4.5 to 4.9 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games are just 2-23 ATS L/37 seasons for a go against 92% conversion rate for bettors. Play on New England to cover |
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12-29-19 | Chargers +10 v. Chiefs | 21-31 | Push | 0 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
This game means nothing for both sides, with the Chargers going golfing soon, and the Chiefs grabbing the No.2 seed in the AFC for the play offs. Expect a lot of wind here today in Arrowhead, and lower scoring game that impacts what will be a closer than anticipated matchup and cover by the road dog. Hey I know how ugly the Chargers looked las time out but they are 10-1 ATS off SU favourite loss 7 pts or more vs .500 or better opposition. Note:Things have been less rosy at Arrowhead Stadium, which is typically considered one of the toughest environments in the NFL. The Chief lost three consecutive games to the Colts, Texans and Packers. NFL Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-29 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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12-22-19 | Chiefs v. Bears +7 | 26-3 | Loss | -137 | 82 h 40 m | Show | |
Chicago is a physical team that matches up well vs the explosive Chiefs. Note: Chicago is 19-3 ATS with a .500 or less record when listed as a home dog against the AFC opposition. Note: QB Patrick Mahomes should feel rushed today which will make for a nightmare for the Chiefs offensive flow. This will be the first time the Kansas City Chiefs will go against super star Khalil Mack since he was traded. Mack used to be an Oakland Raider and totaled five and a half sacks against the Chiefs during his four year run in the AFC West. CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. excellent passing teams averaging 7.5 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (KANSAS CITY) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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12-22-19 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -9.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -109 | 80 h 35 m | Show | |
The Cards won last week vs the Browns, but this week Im betting they have their butts handed to them vs a explosive Seattle team that can very much take advantage of the Cards very porous defence, that allows, an average of 28.4 ppg on the road this season. Note: Carroll is 23-7 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 350 or more yards/game in the second half of the season as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +11.1 ppg. Carroll is 7-0 ATS in home games vs. awful passing defenses - allowing 260 or more passing yards/game after 8+ games as the coach of SEATTLE with the average ppg diff clicking in at +17.6 ppg. The Cardinals are 0-17 SU/ATS L/17 on the road off a game as a home dog in which their scoring output increased by more than ten points over the game before. NFL Road teams (ARIZONA) - revenging a loss against opponent by 14 points or more, after a home game where both teams scored 24 or more points are 6-24 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. ( Seattle beat Arizona back in Sept on the road by a lopsided 27-10 count- Rinse and repeat here today) Play on the Seattle Seahawks to cover |
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12-22-19 | Cowboys v. Eagles | 9-17 | Loss | -123 | 54 h 5 m | Show | |
Dak Prescott is banged up with a sore shoulder, a finger injury on his throwing hand, and took limited snaps in practice.Even with nagging - or worse - injuries, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones expects Prescott to be in "top form" against Philadelphia and I agree with the Boyz owner on this one, as its not hard to look good vs a consistently under performing Philadelphia D.There are jobs and reputations on the line, as well: Dallas coach Jason Garrett could save his job with a division title and a strong playoff run. DALLAS is 9-1 ATS versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Play on Dallas to cover |
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12-22-19 | Raiders v. Chargers OVER 45 | 24-17 | Loss | -109 | 54 h 45 m | Show | |
Two teams and two veteran QBS with nothing left to play for will let it all hang out today as they look to pad their stats . Carr vs Rivers projects to a shoot out that eclipses this total. My projections estimate both teams will score 21+ points. Note:OAKLAND is 11-2 OVER L/13 when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 57.8 ppg scored.LA CHARGERS are 11-3 OVER when both teams score 20 or more points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 53.5 ppg scored. Play OVER |
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12-22-19 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Falcons | 12-24 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 41 m | Show | |
The Jaguars have been completely stagnant of late, and are not getting much respect at all and they really don't deserve it , but neither does Atlanta and in no way according to my power rankings deserve to be a 7 point or more favourite vs anyone in this league including the lowly Jags. From a long term trends perspective it must be noted that NFL Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (JACKSONVILLE) - bad team - outscored by opponents by 7 or more points/game, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games are a long term good bet going 120-64 ATS L/36 seasons for a solid 65% conversion rate for their betting backers. ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) over the last 2 seasons and is 0-7 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Atlanta Falcons are 1-13 SU and 0-14 ATS in their last fourteen games against AFC opponents. Advantage Jacksonville getting points |
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12-21-19 | Texans v. Bucs OVER 49 | 23-20 | Loss | -114 | 50 h 5 m | Show | |
Two red hot offenses go head to head today. Tampa Bay owns the leagues 3rd ranked offence and Houston Ranks 7th. The Buccaneers have seen 11 of their L/12 go over the total with a combined 61 ppg going on the board.TAMPA BAY is also 6-0 OVER vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse this season with a combined average of 61 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense has popped 24 or more points on the board in their L/3 tilts and should go north of that today according to my projections that also lean towards a over shootout battle. TAMPA BAY is 11-3 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 56.1 ppg scored. The Texans have gone OVER in 6 straight away tilts vs the NFC South Division while the Buccaneers are 6-0 OVER at home vs the AFC South Division. Play OVER |
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12-16-19 | Colts +10 v. Saints | 7-34 | Loss | -130 | 85 h 54 m | Show | |
New Orleans took part in a run and gun dog fight last week vs San Francisco that they lost and now Im betting they will be in a bit of emotional let down state and due for regression. Actually the Saints have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 since Drew Bree's returned from injury, and definitely have some defensive issues at the worst possible time. Tonight they go against a motivated and desperate Indy side looking for a play off spot , that has the ability to score in bunches which makes getting points a viable investment option with he visiting underdog. Note: New Orleans is just 0-7 ATS L/7 when coming off a home loss and laying more than 7 points. INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons.NEW ORLEANS is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games over the last 2 seasons. Indianapolis is 9-0 ATS L/9 against .500 or better NFC opposition. Saints are 0-6 ATS L/6 as non-conference home favorite of more than 4 points and 1-10 ATS at home taking on AFC foes. NFL Road underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - off an extremely close road loss by 3 points or less, in the last 4 weeks of the regular season are 24-5 ATS L/36 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indy Colts to cover |
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12-15-19 | Bills v. Steelers -1.5 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 32 m | Show | |
The Bills are bruised and battered after a very physical game against the Baltimore Ravens last week, and Im betting they won't have enough left in the tank to significantly compete here against a another smash mouth type of team in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has won 6 of the L/7 meetings here at home in this series and get the nod again. The Bills are 0-15-1 ATS /0-16 SU on grass vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road with the average ppg diff clicking in at - 20.7 ppg. NFL Road teams (BUFFALO) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are 265-375 ATS dating back 37 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Pittsburgh to cover |
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12-15-19 | Browns v. Cardinals OVER 47.5 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 95 h 16 m | Show | |
The Browns are finally starting to click on offense, with an average of 27. ppg going on the scoreboard in their L/3 trips to the gridiron vs a Cardinals D ithat is porous , allowing more than 400 ypg on defense, ranking last in the NFL in ppg allowed 29 ppg . The Browns D looked fuzzy last week allowing 451 yards to the bumbling Bengals, and now go head to head with a Arizona team with a good looking young QB in Murray. Im expecting Murray after watching last weeks fBrowns film to be ready to exploit the Browns in this spot. With that said, I expect both teams to do fair amount of offensive damage here today in the desert in a game that Im betting goes over the total. The Cards will playing their 2nd game straight game vs an AFC opposition. In the L/3 seasons . NFC underdogs in their 2nd of back-to-back non conference games are 13-0 OVER. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CLEVELAND) - after playing a game at home against opponent after a 2 game home stand are 49-22 OVER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play on OVER |
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12-15-19 | Vikings v. Chargers +3 | 39-10 | Loss | -130 | 80 h 3 m | Show | |
The Chargers are starting to wake up from a season long slumber and are off a dominating 45-10 win last week vs the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile, visiting Minnesota despite of being consistent on the in the W/L column have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 overall and are not living up to the linesmakers expectations and vulnerable here to a desperate team with a chip on their shoulders. The Chargers are 15-0 ATS /12-3 SU L/15 as a dog when they are off a win as a favorite and they are averaging more than 27 points per game over their last three games. MINNESOTA is 5-18 ATS L/23 in road games off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite. Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 as underdogs. The home team has won the past five in the series. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA CHARGERS) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after a game where they committed no turnovers are 40-15 ATS L/36 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Chargers to cover |
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12-15-19 | Browns v. Cardinals +3 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show | |
The Browns were recently starting to turn a corner towards respectability . But that ended last week when despite of winning they lost the stats battle to Cincinnati by more than 188 yards. That is truly unacceptable, and now the inconsistent Browns travel out west to play a under rated Arizona team with a good looking young QB in Murray under centre. The kicker is that the Browns are 3 point road favs, which is not an optimal line to cover for this type of undisciplined unorganized team that takes a boatload full of penalties on a weekly basis . Note: The Browns are 0-4 ATS/SU L/4 on the road. The Cardinals are 21-0 ATS /19-2 SU at home when their line is between a three-point favorite and a five-point dog inclusive when they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games and they did not have more than 31 minutes of possession time in their last game. The Cardinals are 17-4 SU and 20-0-1 ATS as hosts off a non-division tilt when facing an opponent coming off a win of 8 or more points. The Cardinals are 15-0 ATS/SU on grass off a loss by more than a field goal when the line is within three of pick and they suffered a positive turnover margin in each of their last two games. Play on the Arizona Cardinals to cover |
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12-15-19 | Bears +5 v. Packers | 13-21 | Loss | -116 | 100 h 22 m | Show | |
Green Bay Packers are very over rated in their current form even though they hold down the No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC. Believe it or not the Packers have lost the stats battles in 4 of their L/5 games and now go against a Chicago side that has won 4 of their L/5 and coming into their own now as they season winds down. Earlier this season the Bears lost to the Packers by a 10-3 count,(despite of winning the stats battle) but now in revenge mode in their best form this season, Im betting on the Bears to bring home the cash as underdogs. The Bears are 5-0 SUATS with a winning record in division games with QB Mitchell Trubisky under center. NFLvUnderdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (CHICAGO) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, off a home win are 37-15 ATS L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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12-15-19 | Bucs v. Lions UNDER 46 | 38-17 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 39 m | Show | |
Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. DENVER is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-15-19 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | 3-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 44 m | Show | |
Denver in their road games this season have seen a combined average of 39.8 ppg scored which mostly the result of their lack of a cohesive offence. As usual the Broncos are going to depend on their strong D, to keep them competitive, which Im betting will make for a fairly low scoring affair here today. When these teams met earlier this season, the Chiefs took a 30-6 win and now in the rematch Im expecting a rinse and repeat situation and total combined score that wont reach the low 40s. Note: KCs Defence has rounded into top form, of late allowing 17,9,16 points respectively in their L/3 with all those tilts staying under the total. DENVER is 6-0 UNDER vs. very good offensive teams - scoring 27 or more points/game over the last 2 season with a combined average of 42.5 ppg scored. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 41.9 ppg. DENVER is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 41.6 ppg scored.DENVER is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 39.3 ppg. DENVER is 9-1 UNDER versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.8 ppg. DENVER is 11-2 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 40.1 ppg scored. KANSAS CITY is 7-0 UNDER as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons with a combined 39.4 ppg going on the board. Reid is 16-3 UNDER (+12.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record as the coach of KANSAS CITY with a combined average of 39.3 ppg scored . NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (DENVER) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, with a losing record are 109-63 UNDER L/36 seasons for a 64% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-15-19 | Seahawks v. Panthers +7 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
Seahawks lost RB Rashaad Penny for the season with a knee injury suffered in last week’s defeat, and will not have the same offensive flow without him in the lineup. Considering the Seahawks D, is ranked No. 26 in the league in overall there could easily be issues fr them covering today. CAROLINA is 21-9 ATS in home games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 375 or more yards/game. The Panthers are 12-0 ATS L/12 as a dog off a road SU and ATS loss. Play on Carolina to cover |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The mighty Ravens played a pretty good defence last week vs the Buffalo Bills and still were able to notch 24 points. I know that was a hard fought game and LeMar Jackson is experiencing some quad problems, but he is still set to to go , and extremely dangerous from a offensive standpoint. I know the Ravens have a couple big games to finish off this season, and some might think they are over looking the Jets. However , Harbaughs team has been full tilt since the preseason, and Im betting they bring it here tonight again and really light up the scoreboard for a national audience. They just don't lighten up, and that has me on the over. Note: Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receiver Robby Anderson are establishing a solid connection late in the season for a second straight year and Im betting they do more damage offensively than many might expect , which also help us cash an over wager here this evening. Ravens are 6-1 OVER L/7 vs AFC East and have gone over 5 of 6 times in Thursday nighter vs non-division opposition. Play OVER |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles -8.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia Eagles are now desperate to stop a three-game losing streak vs a quarterback in Eli Manning that hasn't played in three months and hasn't defeated them in three years.Manning is 10-20 SU against Philadelphia in his career and the Eagles have now won 9 of the L/10 meetings overall, and are 8-1 ATS L/9 on Mondays at home vs division opposition. The Eagles are not only in need of a win here but they are in redemption mode for a embarrassing 37-31 loss to Miami last time out, despite of previously holding opponents to 17 points or less in four straight games and allowing fewer than 225 yards passing in five consecutive games. Falling asleep at the proverbial wheel vs a side that they should have handily beaten was almost unforgivable and the entire Eagles team should be motivated in this national spot light affair. Play on the Philadelphia Eagles to cover |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams +1 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 61 h 2 m | Show | |
The Seahawks are off. s hard fought win vs Minnesota this past Monday night and are currently the No. 2 overall seed in the NFC .and garnering alot public support thanks to recency bias Meanwhile, the LA Rams look to now awoken from their mid season slumber behind the reenergized QB Jared Goff who threw for 424 yards in last week’s 34-7 beat down at Arizona in which the Rams tough D held the Cardinals to a season-low 198 yards of offense. I know the Rams have not looked particularly consistent this season but the numbers tell a different story as they have won the stats battles in 10 of their L/12 games this season. When these lines opened over the summer the books posted the Rams as 7.5 point chalk, and now with the line divergence this big their is obvious value with the Rams here playing at home vs a Seattle side that will have issues bringing the same energy to this game as they did vs the Vikings last week. LA RAMS are 6-0 ATS after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs over the last 3 seasons. NFL Road favorites (SEATTLE) - good rushing team - averaging 130 or more rushing yards/game, after outrushing opponent by 100 or more yards last game are 82-135 ATS L/36 seasons for a long term go against 62% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the LA Rams to cover |
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12-08-19 | Titans v. Raiders +3 | 42-21 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 41 m | Show | |
Tennessee took part in a hard fought affair last week against Indianapolis which resulted in a away win thanks to a great forth quarter . However, the Titans are being a little over rated because of recency bias, as is evident by having lost 8 of 12 stats battles and have given up season- high yards in two of its last three games . With that said, Tennessee looks vulnerable here in what looks a classic letdown situation on the road. Which coincindently their second straight road game and never an easy situation for any NFL team . I know the Raiders after 3 straight wins have looked bad in two straight losses , but they are better team than those down efforts and Im betting on a bounce back work order today vs a over rated side. Tennessee as a non-division favorite of more than 2 points, are 0-10-1 ATS l/11 against opponents coming off a loss. NFL team (OAKLAND) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games are 34-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 81% conversion rates. Play on Oakland to cover |
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12-08-19 | Chargers v. Jaguars +3 | 45-10 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 19 m | Show | |
The Chargers and the Jaguars are both having seasons to forget, and both enter this game desperate for a win. The Chargers are off a loss to the Denver Broncos and the Jags are off a ugly DD loss to the TB Bucs by a 28-11 count. Free agent QB Nick Foles just can't get it done, for the Jags, and young QB Minshew is expected to start. It must be noted that the Jags incumbent QB is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in his NFL career against opponents coming off a loss like the Bolts. My projections estimate that Jacksonville plays better with their young gun under center and have more flow to their games, and with hom expected to start there is value taking points. The Chargers are 2-7-1 ATS L/10 as a favorite. NFL Favorites (LA CHARGERS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (JACKSONVILLE) - average rushing team (95-125 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/G), after gaining 50 or less rushing yards last game are 47-20 L/36 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Jacksonville Jaguars to cover |
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12-08-19 | 49ers v. Saints -2 | 48-46 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 34 m | Show | |
Its Jimmy G vs Drew Bree's this Sunday in the Bayou. I know the public loves the 49ers a team that moved into the upper echelons of the NFL, but the Saints have thrived in this spot in the past and are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS L/14 record at home versus .800- plus opposition. My own projections make the Saints the superior side as hosts and they get my support in this spot. NFL Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off 3 straight wins against division rivals, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 27-1 SU L/ 36 seasons with the average ppg diff clicking in at +13.3 ppg. NFL Favorites (NEW ORLEANS) - after having won 3 out of their last 4 games against opponent hot team, after having won 8 or more out of their last 10 games are 29-8 ATS L/10 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Play on New Orleans Saints to cover |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons UNDER 47.5 | 20-40 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 19 m | Show | |
These teams offences have really slowed down a lot of late, with Atlanta averaging 20.4 ppg in their L/ 6 trips to the gridiron, and their opponents the Panthers averaging just 19 ppg in their L/6 overall tilts. In their most recent five meetings the average combined score clicks in a 38 ppg. Im betting on a real offensive sleeper again this Sunday when these teams meet. CAROLINA is 6-0 UNDER vs. struggling passing defenses - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att. after 8+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 35.6 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 6-0 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse over the last 3 seasons.ATLANTA is 8-1 UNDER in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (CAROLINA) - after being beaten by the spread by 21 or more points total in their last three games, in December games are 44-15 UNDER L.5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-08-19 | Colts +3.5 v. Bucs | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Indianapolis is off a 31-17 loss to the Titans last week which most believe will have them in a letdown spot this Sunday, but Im betting on the opposite reaction via a tough as nails group that will want redemption immediately. Note: The Colts are 14-0 ATS L/14 when they are off a double-digit ATS loss and they are facing a non-divisional opponent that has forced an average of fewer than five turnovers per game like the Buccaneers. The recency bias of Buccaneers win vs Jacksonville last week, and the Colts loss has a bad line attached to this tilt. In my betting opinion this inconsistent Buccaneers team is being over rated in a big way. INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game over the last 3 seasons TAMPA BAY is 4-14 L/18 ATS against AFC South division opponents . The Colts are 6-1 SU L/7 overall in this series and 3-1 SUL/4 visits to TB. NFL Home favorites (TAMPA BAY) - after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% in the second half of the season are 8-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 6 m | Show | |
Dallas is. strange team, as they are only 6-6 on the season, but rank high in both offence and defensive numbers, and have out-gained all their opponents but one this season. This team just does not know how to win consistently and can't be trusted to come out here and perform at a high level as road chalk vs a Bears team finally starting to up trend with 3 wins in their L/4 games. Value resides with the home dog. Cowboys are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 Thursday games.Cowboys are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 games in Week 14. Garrett is 8-18 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 90 or less rushing yards/game as the coach of DALLAS. Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December. NFL Favorites (DALLAS) - with a poor turnover defense - forcing 1 or less turnovers/game, after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse are 9-28 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |
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12-01-19 | Patriots v. Texans +3.5 | 22-28 | Win | 100 | 107 h 54 m | Show | |
Scoring has been a big an issue for New England of late, and I personally believe Tom Brady is starting to show regression with age as his 79.3 passer rating over the last 3 games gives testament to. Yes, the D, remains solid and the future HOF has as usual given the Pats just enough omph to get them Ws, However, tonight against young gun QB Deshaun Watson who is 10-4-1 ATS overall as a dog, including 8-2 ATS as a dog of more then 2 points in his career , the Pats are in trouble. NFL Road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - quick starting offensive team - scoring 14+ PPG in the first half, after allowing 14 points or less last game are 9-31 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - excellent offensive team - scoring 27 or more points/game, after allowing 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 7-27 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Texans to cover |
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12-01-19 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 58 m | Show | |
Two struggling teams go head to head here this week in the Mile High City. With Father Time taking its toll on QB Philip Rivers the Chargers are no longer an optimal force and are getting to much respect here.Note: Rivers has thrown seven interceptions in his last two games, the worst slump of his 16-year career. I know the Chargers are off a bye week but this has not been a recipe for success for them in a while as they are 1-8 ATS L/9 with rest. This is a bet against the Chargers and not really a bet for the Broncos. However, from a mathematical standpoint this is value line for a desperate home dog. Advantage Denver. Play on Denver to cover |
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12-01-19 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 33 m | Show | |
The Rams were blasted by the Baltimore Ravens last Monday night and will come into this game against the Cardinals feeling downtrodden. Im sure the natural inclination of most bettors would be to back the Rams after that ugly effort but the Cardinals are no pushovers and just wont lie down and die . Take the points. LA RAMS are 5-17 ATS L/22 after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game. NFL teams where the line is +3 to -3 (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season are 9-32 ATS L/10 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cardinals to cover |
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12-01-19 | Titans v. Colts -2.5 | 31-17 | Loss | -107 | 101 h 9 m | Show | |
The Titans lost a 19-17 home game to the Colts during the 2nd week of the season. This return matchup has big time play off implications attached to it for both clubs as they currently rank No. 8 (Indianapolis) and No.9 (Tennessee) in playoff seeding. This will of course be a hard fought game, but Indianapolis has better overall numbers and are playing at home . The Colts have also owned this series covering 6 of the L/7 overall meetings. INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. TENNESSEE is 12-31 ATS revenging a home loss against opponent since 1992. NFL Home favorites vs. the money line (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, with a winning record in the second half of the season are 26-2 L/10 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors with the average ppg diff clicking in at +10.2 ppg. Play on the Indianapolis Colts to cover |
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12-01-19 | Jets v. Bengals +3.5 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 77 h 20 m | Show | |
Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton is expected to start for the Bengals this Sunday which will boost their chances at a cover and possible outright win vs a over rated NY Jets team that is getting to much respect thanks to a recency bias based on a 3 game win streak . It must be noted that NFL winless sides like Cincinnati have covered 14 of 19 ATS during the second half of the season dating back 37 seasons when facing opposition coming off consecutive SUATS wins. Also Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton as a non-division underdog is 7-1 ATS against AFC East opposition coming off a victory, including 5-0 SUATS at home. Daltons is also 20-10-1 ATS in December in his NFL career, including 11-6 SU and 13-4 ATS versus non-AFC North opponents. NY JETS are 4-13 ATS L/17 in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread. NY JETS are 0-6 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons. NFL team (CINCINNATI) - in a game involving two poor defensive teams (23-27 PPG) in the 2nd half of the season, after scoring 14 points or less in 2 straight games are 18-42 ATS L/37 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the Cincinnati Bengals to cover |
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12-01-19 | Packers v. Giants UNDER 45 | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 57 m | Show | |
Green Bays D looked bad last week when they allowed 37 points to the 49ers in a loss. It must be noted that Game 15 or less conference chalk who allowed 35+ points on the road last week like Green Bay did are 1-16 UNDER L/4 seasons when the Total is listed at 49 points or less. Im betting last weeks ugly defensive effort was an anomaly and that the Packers concentrate on shoring up their defence vs a rookie signal caller and a team averaging just 19.7 ppg on offence this season. Meanwhile, the Packers offence also struggled, as Rodgers was sacked five times on Sunday night. Right tackle Bryan Bulaga injured his right knee and left the game. Alex Light replaced him but struggled. so offensive line issues could once again make things tough on Rodgers here in NY vs the Gmen this Sunday. This limiting GBs offensive output. Both these teams are ranked in the bottom 3rd in the league in offence and today Im betting we see why. NFL Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (NY GIANTS) - after 5 or more consecutive losses, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games, in the second half of the season are 24-5 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team against the total (GREEN BAY) - with a terrible passing D - allowing 7.5 or more passing yards/att, after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game are 32-10 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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12-01-19 | Eagles -9.5 v. Dolphins | 31-37 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
Last weeks loss by Philly to Seattle was nasty and the entire Eagles nation felt embarrassed as they lost 17-9 at home in inclement weather . Quarterback Carson Wentz continued his upside down circus act by being intercepted twice and tripping all over the place while giving up two fumbles . It hard to want to back the Eagles after that disgraceful effort, but this team still has pride, and need redemption quickly if Pederson hopes to retain his HC.job. Im betting on the Eagles coming out here and beating up on a Dolphins team that is still in tank mode. The Fins defense is ranked 31st against the run (148.2 yards per game), 31st overall (400.9) and last in points allowed per game (31.5). The Eagles are 13-1 SU and 14-0 ATS away after scoring 10 or fewer points in its last game. Play on Philadelphia to cover |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars UNDER 47.5 | 28-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
The Jaguars got blasted last week by a 42-20 count at Tennessee. However is must be noted Jacksonville is 0-5 UNDER aft division road tilt and 1-7 L/8 UNDER after allowing 35 or more. pts . I know that this week they go against an explosive TB offence, but it must also be noted that JACKSONVILLE is 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 or more yards/play over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of just 30 ppg going on the board. The Jaguars have been crushed on the ground the last three games, allowing more than 200 yards rushing against Houston, Indianapolis and Tennessee. It was the fourth time in the last seven games an opponent topped 200 yards rushing against Jacksonville, a franchise record. Knowing this Im betting the Bucs will be pounding the ball on the ground alot today, in attempt to exploit the Jags major weakness, which in turn will eat alot of clock time which will effect the overall output of this tilt to the under. NFL team against the total (JACKSONVILLE) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a division rival, in December games are 30-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. NFL team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (JACKSONVILLE) - off 2 consecutive road losses, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 31-9 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 27 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 28-8 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys OVER 46.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show | |
Until last week against the Pats top tier defence the Cowboys offence was on a roll, scoring 35 or more points in 3 of 4 games. After regressing last week in a 13-9 slugest, facing the Bills will not seem like such a big challenge and Im expecting some conclusive output here by the Cowboys in place where they have averaged 30+ ppg this season. Meanwhile, defensively the Cowboys are now battered and bruised after the heavy battle last week and wont be as resistant to the Bills run game. Note: Garrett is 8-1 OVER in home games after allowing 14 points or less last game as the coach of DALLAS with . combined average of 54 points going on the board while the Boyz D allowed 28 points during that 9 game stretch. NFL Road teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (BUFFALO) - good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game. are 73-31 OVER L/10 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER |
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11-28-19 | Bears v. Lions +3 | 24-20 | Loss | -115 | 67 h 44 m | Show | |
A few weeks ago when these teams played the Bears squeaked by the Lions by a 20-13 score, now in revenge mode on their own home field Im betting on the Lions once again being competitive and getting us the cover . Yes, I know Detroit lost a 19-16 decision on the road to the Washington Redskins, who came into the game an NFL-worst 1-9, but here at home they have an advantage vs a Bears side that is highly inconsistent. Once again , I also know the Bears have won 2 of their L/3, but who did those victories come against .....the banged up Lions, and a 2-9 NY Giants team. Chicago is far from being a 3 point road favorite against anyone in this league, not even the slumping Lions. The the four other teams the Bears beat this season are a combined 10-33-1. Call me crazy but Ill take the Lions on Turkey day to cover. CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS in road games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. CHICAGO is 4-16 ATS in road games versus excellent offensive teams - averaging 6 or more yards/play in the second half of the season. CHICAGO is 8-22 ATS L/30 in road games vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. in the second half of the season. NFL Home teams (DETROIT) - revenging a road loss against opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite are 86-43 ATS L/36 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Detroit to cover |
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11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +3.5 | 45-6 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
The public and their dogs are all over the red hot Baltimore Ravens, but the LA Rams are no pushovers and must be respected as home pups. Note: The Rams have out yarded all their opponents expect one this season. Baltimore has outscored their oppositon 127-40 in the last three games behind the legs and arm of LeMar Jackson, and now becasue of recency bias we have value with the home side getting points. BALTIMORE is 6-17 ATS L/23 in road games after a win by 21 or more points. NFL Road favorites (BALTIMORE) - dominant team - outscoring opponents by 10 or more points/game, after a win by 10 or more points are 18-53 ATS L/10seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors. |
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11-24-19 | Packers v. 49ers OVER 47.5 | 8-37 | Loss | -104 | 57 h 40 m | Show | |
The Niners / Packers enter into this fray having had a recent history of fairly high scoring affairs with 6 of the L/7 meetings eclipsing the total, with an combined average of 50 ppg scored . It must be noted that NFL games involving two top tier sides with a .700 or better win percentage are a perfect 8-0 OVER L/8 in any game past week 8 ( 8 games played ) during the regular season! With QBs Jimmy G and Aaron Rodgers throwing the rock Im betting on a tilt that goes over this number. Both sides, have surprisingly bad defensive rush numbers against with GB ranking 27th and the 49ers 26th against the run. that will see both sides pound the ball, on the ground which in turn will open up the field for play action which I'm betting will result in big plays and a lot of scores. I know sometimes we try to read between the lines, and not trust our instincts , however, this is a tilt that smells like a blood bath for the books as sharps and the public will pound this number over at the current offering. Play OVER |
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11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 78 h 38 m | Show | |
Both these teams are coming off victories against sub par teams. Oakland defeated the Cincinnati Bengals 17-10. New York smashed the Washington Redskins 34-17. The Jets are now up trending in my power rankings and are coming off back-to-back wins and are now 3-0 ITS in their last three tilts overall and deserve our respect here as home dogs. With QB Darnold in a flow of late a big day Im betting is at hand vs a . Raiders side that are 21st in scoring defense and 25th in opponents’ yards per play. I know the Jets dont inspire bettors, but in their current form I like their chances to cover vs a Raiders team that despite of some good outings are getting way to much love from the linesmakers here on a line that should be closer to a pickem. OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS off a home win over the last 3 seasons. Gruden is 3-19 ATS vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game in the second half of the season in all games he has coached in his career. OAKLAND is 11-27 ATS L/38 when playing against a lower tier team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season. NFL Road teams (OAKLAND) - after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season are just 264-374 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 59% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the NY Jets to cover |
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11-24-19 | Seahawks +2 v. Eagles | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 76 h 24 m | Show | |
Philadelphia enters this game downtrodden after blowing. a 10-0 lead and losing a a 17-10 decision against New England last week . Carson Wentz the Eagles QB is down trending in my QB power rankings and from a visual standpoint is excruciating to watch under centre as he is currently not seeing the field well and wildly inaccurate when he thinks he ha a target. In the past when the Eagles are coming off a home loss and than playing at home the week after, they are 1-10 SUATS the last eight campaigns Meanwhile, Seattle is rested and off a bye week. and showing extreme confidence after back to back OT victories with the last one as a underdog. It must be noted that the Seahawks behind QB Russell Wilson. are 18-4-1 ATS as a dog when coming off a win. The Seahawks are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last ten away games vs NFC East . Seattle is 12-0 L/12 ATS as a regular season conference dog when coming off a SU/ATS win. SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons. SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. Carroll is 25-8 ATS in weeks 10 through 13 as the coach of SEATTLE. NFL Road underdogs or pick (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 24 or more points/game, after a win by 3 or less points are 79-42 L/36 seasons for a long term 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Seattle to cover |
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11-24-19 | Broncos +4 v. Bills | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 34 m | Show | |
According to my power rankings the Denver Broncos matchup well vs the Buffalo Bills. I know the Broncos (3-7) have their issues, particularly when it comes to fourth-quarter meltdowns. Denver has now blown four fourth-quarter leads, including last week's 27-23 loss at Minnesota, in which the Broncos became the first team in five years to squander a 20-point lead entering halftime. But what this team this Broncos team has been competitive and after last weeks embarrassing effort, Im looking for all hands on board this week, in a game where the team leaves everything on the field. Whether thats enough or not Im not sure, but what I do like is the number, and the Broncos ability to cover. BUFFALO is 12-27 ATS L/39 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival ( Beat Miami last week by DDs)and have failed to cover 8 of their L/9 at home after playing the Fins. NFL Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (DENVER) - after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, team with a losing record in the second half of the season are 37-12 ATS L/10 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NFL Road teams (DENVER) - mistake-free team (1.25 or less TO/G committed) vs a team with 1.25 or less TO/G forced after 8+ games, after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers are 30-9 ATS L/36 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on Denver to cover |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Mexico KC has shown itself to be vulnerable against viable ground attacks of late and currently rank 31 st in defensive run success rate and because of this I expect the Chargers will focus on their run game to move the chains and eat clock time . This strategy will keep the Chiefs star QB Mahomes out of his flow and off the field for long chunks of time which Im betting equates to a lower scoring grinding affair than the public expects. Note: LA CHARGERS is 9-2 UNDER (+6.8 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 or more rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 43.8 ppg going on the board. LA CHARGERS is 15-4 UNDER after playing their last game on the road over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 41.2 ppg scored. NFL Division games with high totals ( 44+) have gone under at a 180-109-3 62% clip since the 2003 season. NFL team against the total (LA CHARGERS) - off a road loss against a division rival, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the second half of the season are 25-7 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 78% conversion rate . NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (KANSAS CITY) - after going over the total by 21 or more points total in their last three games, versus division opponents are 46-19 UNDER L/10 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER |
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11-17-19 | Bears +7 v. Rams | 7-17 | Loss | -120 | 85 h 16 m | Show | |
There looks to me to be big trouble ahead for the Rams this Sunday after they lost their starting center and a starting OL to injury in the Steelers’ game last week a 17-12 loss. With QB Jared Goff looking like he has lost his flow recently facing Khalil Mack and the nasty Bears’ defensive line this week without key starters will be. a miserable task. Advantage Bears taking points. Rams have failed to cover 5 of their L/6 Sunday nighters. Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LA RAMS) - after going under the total by 35 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 8-28 ATS L/36 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors. CHICAGO is 9-2 ATS in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.CHICAGO is 53-26 ATS after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games. Play on the Chicago Bears to cover |