This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Lakers.

A couple of bottom feeders go head to head here and as we can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think these two inept teams are pretty evenly matched. I agree of course, but think that the home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this one and with a strong revenge factor working in its favor, in my opinion the savvy move in this contest is indeed on LA. The C’s won 113-96 in LA back on December 5th. The Lakers will also be especially motivated after falling 114-105 at home to Brooklyn on Friday. This is a great situational play though as Boston comes to town without top scorer and leading rebounder Jared Sullinger, who will be out for the foreseeable future with a stress fracture in his left foot. Boston comes in with zero momentum as well after falling 109-101 to Sacramento on Friday. Note that the Celtics are interestingly just 9-11 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while the Lakers are 19-18 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 10-7 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the LAKERS as the correct move in this one.

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This is an 8* WEST-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Thunder rolled into the All-Star break with five wins in six games and sitting just a half-game behind eighth-place Phoenix, I expect the home side to make the most of this game. Dallas is in fifth in the West and is expected to have Rajon Rondo back in the line-up after missing six games due to fractures in his nasal passage. Note though that the Mavericks once prolific offense sputtered over the final month of the first half and I think that the newly acquired Amare Stoudemire will not have an immediate impact for the team. As mentioned off the top, OKC dominated its way into the break, PG Russell Westbrook had 41 points in the All Star game to earn MVP honors and he’ll be eager to help his team earn a rare win here, the Thunder actually play with triple revenge, most recently losing 112-107 on December 28th. Note that Dallas is just 8-16 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records, while OKC is 14-10 ATS in front of the home town crowd. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to OKLAHOMA CITY as the savvy move in this contest.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST DESTRUCTION on the Memphis Grizzlies.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. What more can be said about Atlanta right now that hasn’t literally been said a million times by every NBA analyst in America, after a 19-game win streak ended in New Orleans, the team has bounced back with two straight victories, including a 124-116 home win over Golden State on Friday. But now the team travels across the country to face the West’s second best team and in my opinion, this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors (note that the Hawks were outrebounded 51-38 in the win over the Warriors). This is also a revenge game for the Grizzlies after they fell 96-86 in Atlanta back on January 7th; note though that the Grizzlies were playing the tail end of a 4-7 stretch and did not have the services of Zach Randolph at the time. Memphis has won 12 of its 14 games since that setback. The home side will also be particuarly motivated after falling 90-89 at West-worst Minnesota on Friday. And a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered as the Grizzlies are 8-1 vs. the East at home this year. A great situational play in my opinion, play on MEMPHIS.

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This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Clippers.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the Clippers will be the “hungrier” side today, they’ve lost three straight and one more setback would represent the teams longest slide this season. LA returns to OKC for the first time since the Playoffs in which the team lost Game and 5 on some controversional calls, and then eventually the series in front of the home town crowd in Game 6: “That game is still on my mind," Clippers’ forward Blake Griffin said last night. "It's the one game I've probably watched the most in the year's time. I couldn't tell you how many times I watched that over the summer." While LA did beat the Thunder 93-90 on October 30th, it would fail to cover the spread in that one, and the “revenge” could not have felt all that great with Oklahoma City star Kevin Durant sitting out due to injury. Durant returned in his team’s 116-113 loss to New Orleans on Friday, but note that home side will be without the services of backup center Kendrick Perkins, who was suspended for one game by the NBA on Saturday for head butting the Pelicans’ Tyreke Evans. "Guys need to step up, we need to find a way and we need to be better," Griffin continued. "You can't get too low, but our sense of urgency needs to go sky high right now." Note that LA is 5-4 ATS this year after playing three consecutive road games, while OKC is just 12-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. This one is coming right down to the wire in my opinion, grab the points with the CLIPPERS.

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This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Orlando Magic.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a great situational play, Orlando will be playing its first game after firing coach Jacque Vaughn and will be despertately trying to avoid losing 11 straight for the second time in three seasons. The Magic will be clearly motivated tonight and a date vs. the inept Lakers who have lost eight straight on the road is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion to turn things around. This is a great spot bet as Orlando has looked pretty decent of late for the most part, most recently coming off a competitive 110-103 setback to the Spurs on Wednesday. This is also a revenge game for the Magic after falling 101-84 to the Lakers back on January 9th; note that since that win LA has dropped 11 of 12, most recetly a disheartening 113-105 OT loss at Milwaukee on Wednesday. And note that LA is just 7-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season, while Orlando is 22-17 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to ORLANDO as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Whether Thunder star Kevin Durant plays or not, I think that there are enough motivational and situational factors working in favor of the visitors today and expect them to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This sets up as a natuarl let down spot for Anthony Davis and the Pelicans after they beat the Hawks 115-110 on Monday, breaking Atlanta’s winning streak at 19 straight. If you watched that game, you may have thought that New Orleans had won Game 7 of the NBA Finals after the win. While it was a solid victory, it was a bit dramatic in my opinion and suffice it to say, after that emotional and clearly satisfying REGULAR SEASON win, in my opinion all signs do indeed point to a letdown here for the home side. Not only does this set up as a letdown spot, but it’s also a double revenge scenario for OKC, most recently a 101-99 setback at home on December 21st to the Pelicans, a game in which Durant sat out due to injury as well. The Thunder can still win and play without Durant, Russell Westbrook and company will also be highly motivated to end a four-game road losing streak; however, take note that the visitors do come in with some momentum after beating Orlando 104-97 on Monday, Westbrook posted his second triple-double of the year with 25 points, 14 assists and 11 boards. A great spot bet, two classic “spots” are working against the home side, I think the THUNDER can take advantage and take this one down to the wire.

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This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Washington Wizards.

I think this is a great situational play and while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the “hungry” Wizards to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Atlanta finally fell in a 115-110 loss to New Orleans on Tuesday and I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side. It’s hard not to imagine the Hawks having a mental lapse today after winning 19 straight, equaling the fifth-longest single-season winning streak in league history; note that the team would go 9-0 on the road during the epic win skein. Now also throw in the “look ahead” factor with West leading Golden State coming to town on Friday, then this play gets even stronger. And then now also throw in the fact that the Wizards play with “double revenge” from this season alone, including an embarrassing 120-89 rout on January 11th. And finally, Washington will clearly be focused on the task at hand, it’s dropped three straight overall coming into this one, the last two both coming by just four points. The Hawks run was impressive, but I’m not even close to “crowning their asses” yet, the situational factors are overwhelming and they all point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different reasons I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Wizards are on the verge of their longest skid of the year in front of the home town crowd after a 21-point rally came up short in a 120-116 OT setback to the Raptors on Saturday. Whether John Wall plays or not matters not in my opinion, Washington is loaded and will certainly be the “hungrier” team here in my opinion. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Hornets have won three in a row over the Wizards, including three of the past four in the Nation’s capital. But with a game between the teams in Charlotte on Thursday, I think it just lends weight to the home side playing its heart out tonight. And note that Charlotte is just 3-5 ATS vs. division opponents this year, while Washington is 25-22 ATS in its last 47 after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visiting side to find a way to get the job done and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. As I always say: “desperation breeds motivation,” and in my opinion, Dallas will clearly be the “hungrier” team tonight as it looks to snap out of a season-worst losing streak. Here’s a perfect opponent to take your frustrations out on as the Heat will be without stars Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. Miami has come apart at the seams of late, it most recently allowed the Bucks to shoot 54.9 percent while also sending them to the line 30 times in a 109-102 setback on Tuesday. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much better than this, Dallas is clearly under-achieving and it will be all hands on deck today to break the slide; conversely, Miami is now playing its first game without star Wade, making this a prime spot for a letdown. Now also throw in the fact that the Mavs play with revenge after falling to the Heat 105-96 on November 9th (a seventh straight victory in the series for Miami), and this play becomes extremely strong motivationally as well. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, all signs point to DALLAS as the sharp move in this one.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I played this line right when it came out, it’s since gone up a bit as of writing, but may settle back down to 16.5, but regardless, I love this pick and think that the lowly Wolves can catch the surprising home side a bit complacent here and expect them to comfortably sneak in through the back door as the game comes down the stretch. What more can be said about the Atlanta Hawks right now that hasn’t literally been said by every NBA analyst across North American a million times by now, obviously the team is playing at an extremely high level on both ends of the court. I won’t try to convince you that the Wolves are a good team which has just been unlucky this season, injuries and other factors have Minnesota in the cellar for a reason, it’s a club which is in transition this season. However, what I would point out is that after covering 13 straight games and with contests vs. Minnesota today and Brooklyn (just 18-25) on Wednesday, there’s no question in my mind that this short stretch vs. the league’s worst teams definitely sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the home side. Conversely, the Wolves have lost three straight (both SU and ATS) and will be “hungry” to not get blown out here with the knowledge that the eyes of the basketball World are all on the city of Atlanta right now. I think this is a few too many points, grab as many as you can with the WOLVES.

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This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago has been struggling of late, but a game vs. the defending and surging NBA champions is just what the doctor ordered to get re-focused in my opinion, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Bulls are most recently coming off a 108-94 loss at Cleveland on Monday, the team’s sixth setback in its last eight games. There’s no time like the present to turn things around though, Chicago next visits Dallas, Miami and then NBA-best Golden State: “We've got to decide when enough is enough," Bulls’ coach Tom Thibodeau assessed last night. "We're going to look at everything, come in, look at the film, get to work; we've got to get better. It's that simple. The way we are playing is not acceptable, so we've got to change it." Clearly the issue with the Bulls has been their play on the defensive end of the court, normally the strength of the team, Chicago has given up more than 100 points in five consecutive games, something it hasn’t done since 2010: “It's just that no matter who is on the floor or who is out or who is coming back we just have to compete," star guard Derrick Rose said. "My biggest thing is competing and making sure we let the opponent know we've come to play. We're midway through the season; it's no excuses." San Antonio endured a tough stretch as well but comes in red hot, it’s won four straight and eight of ten, most recently thumping Denver 109-99 on Tuesday. Two teams moving in opposite directions, but as I always like to say: “desperation breeds motivation.” I think we’ll see a highly concerted effort from the home side in this one, this game is basically a must win with three tough road contests in a row on the horizon. Chicago may be a bit banged up, but from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Spurs are just 3-5 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU wins and only 7-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that the Bulls are 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. As I said off the top, I’ll hardly be surprised if CHICAGO wins this one outright.

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This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Rockets.

Some times I believe it’s necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational, motivational and strong trend based factors, and in others I feel that a more “common sense” approach is the best way to handicap a game. That’s the case here. These are a couple of the league’s best and hottest teams going head to head, but so far Golden State has gotten the better of Houston this season, it’s taken all three games both SU and ATS. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor and one which simply can’t be overlooked today in my opinion, while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up and look for the visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Also note that this is a spot the Rockets have performed admirably in for bettors already this season, 12-8 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and 3-1 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. And note, this is in fact a position in which the Warriors have struggled in going just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 after allowing 85 points or less. Grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Indiana Pacers.

For a number of different reasons I expect the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Anyone that’s followed me for any length of time knows that I am primarily a situational handicapper. That said, I don’t conform to any one particular handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one’s approach is the best way to take advantage of longterm profits. One angle that I do always like to take advantage of is lopsided numbers or trends. Atlanta is playing unbelievably this season, it’s 18-2 SU in its last 20 and an amazing 17-3 ATS, covering the spread in its last 11 straight. Indiana had more questions than answers coming into this season and wasn’t expected to do that well, it’s certainly been struggling of late, not only has it lost five straight SU, it’s also lost six straight ATS. While I will admit that the “Law of averages” is flawed in many ways, I have always believed that lop-sided numbers and trends have a way of naturally “correcting” themselves over the short, mid and long term. These two massively lop-sided trends collide on Wednesday night, in my opinion clearly putting the value on the Pacers in this one. Now throw in the fact that the visitors play with double revenge from two losses this season, and this play becomes even stronger. But finally, take note that this is a spot that Indiana has actually performed very well in for bettors as it’s 14-9 ATS on the road this year and 13-6 ATS after a non-conference game. And note that this is a position in which the Hawks have actually struggled in, they’re a poor 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less (coming off a 93-82 win over the Pistons on Monday). While I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright win, I do think that the writing is on the wall and a competitive game is in the cards, grab as many points as you can with the PACERS.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons.

For a number of different reasons I think that the surprising Detroit Pistons will keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door vs. the surprising Atlanta Hawks. The Pistons have won seven straight on the road and have been a completely different team since releasing Josh Smith. I think Atlanta finally has a letdown here, it’s coming off back to back victories in Chicago and Toronto, Saturday’s 107-99 victory over the Bulls matched the franchise’s second-longest win streak. While obviously not always, success does breed complacency, there’s no question in my mind which will be the “hungrier” team today, the Pistons play with “double revenge” from this season alone, the latest was a 106-103 setback in Detroit on January 9th. After a 5-23 start, Detroit has gone 4-1 its last five, which is part of an 11-2 stretch that now has it just one game out of the final playoff spot in the East. Most recently the Pistons destroyed Philadelphia 107-89 on Saturday. Note that during their win streak on the road, the Pistons have won by an average of 11.6 points per game with big time wins in San Antonio, Dallas and Toronto. Simply put, Detroit is a team that competes away from friendly confines. From a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that the Pistons are 5-1 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 5-1 ATS after a win by 10 points or more. And note that Atlanta is just 11-15 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points. I think the writing is on the wall and an extremely competitive battle is in the cards, while I do think the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder are coming off a resounding 127-115 victory over Western Conference leading Golden State on Friday and I think will carry that momentum over here. Oklahoma City will also be looking to avoid a fifth straigh road loss in this one as well as trying to move back to the .500 mark. This is also a revenge game for OKC after falling 103-102 in Orlando back on February 7th, a win which snapped a five-game losing streak in the series for the Magic. A date vs. defensively challenged Orlando is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked offensively as it’s is giving up 111.0 PPG on 51.2 percent shooting over its last three. The Magic are coming off a 106-96 loss to Memphis on Friday and is just 7-11 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year. I think a very focused and hungry OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER teams leaves Orlando with a decisive victory on Sunday night.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the San Antonio Spurs.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side is the savvy move here. Despite Phoenix being one of the hottest clubs in the league right now, it’s rarely had any success whatsoever in San Antonio and I definitley think that strong trend of futility continues in this one. The Spurs will be especially motivated to return to their winning ways after losing 105-104 to Detroit on Tuesday, a game in which they were ahead by three with ten seconds, only to fall for the eighth time in 12 games. Phoenix is 10-2 since mid December, but needed to hold on for dear life in Tuesday’s 113-111 victory over Minnesota. But as mentioned off the top, the Suns have struggled in San Antonio, losing nine of the last ten there. Also note that the Spurs will be playing with the revenge factor after falling 94-89 in Phoenix back on October 31st. It’s a perfect situation for us to take advantage of, the home side is without question the “hungrier” team, while the Suns come in a bit complacent. And from a trend based stand point, this selection is about as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that Phoenix is just 8-9 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more, while San Antonio is 6-2 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into consideration, all signs do indeed point to the SPURS as the correct call in this one.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings.

While I do believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question in this one, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the home side to keep this game a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Thunder are coming off a 117-91 loss at Golden State on Monday. Note that OKC is not expected to have guard Dion Waiters available for this one yet; and that’s bad news for a bench which, other than Anthony Morrow who had 17 points, combined to score just 20 in the loss to the Warriors. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Thunder have won the last 12 straight in this series, including two already this year (both SU and ATS). But here’s a big opportunity for the Kings to bounce back, this is the first of six straight in front of the home town crowd, note that Sacramento is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range. It’s my opinion that this spread is just a little large, play on the KINGS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST ASSASSIN on the Chicago Bulls.

A couple of the league’s top teams meet on Monday night and for a number of different situational and strong trend basesd reasons, when the smoke clears at the end of this one I expect the home side to a find a way to get the job done. The Bulls come in with plenty of momentum, they’ve won nine of their last ten games and are expected to welcome back gritty guard Jimmy Butler to the lineup (Butler missed Saturday’s 109-104 OT win over Boston to attend a funeral); note that Butler was named the NBA player of the week on December 29th. Chicago is riding high with Pau Gasol, the four-time All-Star is averaging 18 points and leading the team with 11.2 boards; note that Gasol scored a season-high tying 29 with 16 rebounds in the win over the C’s: “I’m a confident guy," Gasol reflected afterwards. "I'm a competitor. You always have to hope for the best and be positive and optimistic. I didn't know what was going to happen, how I was going to fit in. But I knew I was going to try and do my best to provide everything and give us the best chance to win a title." I chose the Rockets to cash as champion at 15-1 this year and for the most part the team looks pretty solid, it’s 23-10 after crushing Miami 115-79 on Saturday. Home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this one though, note that Houston is a poor 0-3 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Chicago is a solid 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all do indeed point to the BULLS as the sharp move in this one.

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This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different situational and strong trend based reasons, I think the Wizards can at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think New Orleans comes in flat/complacent today, it’s coming off a big 111-83 victory over the Rockets on Friday. Conversely, there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier”, this is the final game of four-game trip for Washington and it’s dropped the first three vs. some very stiff competition in Dallas, OKC and San Antonio. And as mentioned off the top, from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, note that Washington is already 6-5 ATS in 11 non-conference games this year and 41-29 ATS in the same position over the last two. And note that New Orleans is a poor 3-4 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest and just 4-6 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the WIZARDS as the savvy move in this one.

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This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Sacramento Kings.

While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, sneak in through the back door in what should be a highly competitive affair. The Pistons have been on quite a roll since waiving Josh Smith, winning four in a row. Detroit hasn’t won five in a row in more than five years and suffice it to say, I think the “wheels come off the bus” today. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games I keep my eyes open for, in my opinion this definitely sets up as a ledown spot for the suddenly over achieving Pistons; and note, it’s not hard to imagine Detroit getting caught looking ahead to its lengthy road trip starting against the defending Champions on Tuesday. Sacramento has definitely been struggling, but is coming off a 110-107 victory over the Wolves last time out. However, bettors have been getting killed betting on the Kings of late as the team has failed to cover the spread in 11 straight contests (you may not know, but one angle that I always try to exploit is “lopsided” numbers or trends; this play falls directly into that system). This is also a revenge spot for the Kings after they fell 95-90 to Detroit at home as 5.5 point favorites on December 13th. It’s interesting to note that Sacramento is 3-1 ATS this season after playing three or more consecutive road games, while Detroit is a poor 4-12 ATS in front of the home town crowd and just 2-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the KINGS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the New York Knicks.

A couple of cellar dwellers face off in the Big Apple on Friday night and only one will leave MSG with a victory; in my opinion, there are enough situational, motivational and strong trend based factors working in favor of the home side to indeed pull the trigger on the Knicks in this matchup. New York is now on the cusp of another 10-game losing streak, its second of the year. The Knicks are also in the midst of their longest home losing streak in franchise history. Now also throw in the fact that the Pistons beat New York in Detroit at the start of the season, and there’s no question in my mind which of these two teams will be the “hungrier.” This also sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the suddenly over-achieving Pistons who have won three straight after Tuesday’s 109-86 effort in Orlando. Here’s a quote from Carmelo Anthony that you’ve never heard before: "I've never been 5-29," said Anthony yesterday. "It's getting testing not to get frustrated and it's tough to keep a smile on my face." As mentioned off the top, there are several strong ATS trends working in favor of New York here, the most pertinent being that Detroit is just 1-8 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and only 5-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Knicks are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 after playing three or more consective road games. While I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on NEW YORK.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Dallas Mavericks.

It likely doesn’t come as a big surprise to learn that the Mavericks are the highest scoring team in the league, however it may come as a surprise to learn that the Thunder are the best team defensively this year. This two dynamic teams meet on Sunday night and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect the “offense” to overcome the “defense.” The Thunder have won two in a row and have done so with the strong play of Russell Westbrook, filling in once again for an injured Kevin Durant. Most recently OKC beat Charlotte 98-75 on Friday. Dallas became even more dangerous after adding point guard Rajon Rondo to the lineup, the Mavericks are coming off a 102-98 win over the Lakers on Friday: "Just getting a lot more comfortable," said Rondo after scoring 21 vs. LA. "Coach (Rick Carlisle) just told me to try to get in the paint. I try to take what the defense gives me. We basically just have to communicate on the floor. The game is still the same." In my opinion, Westbrook and the Thunder have been playing over their heads without Durant and I think it finally catches up to them tonight; note that OKC is just 4-5 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Dallas is 8-4 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records. I’m playing the MAVERICKS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Antonio Spurs.

A loss on Sunday would mark the Spurs seventh loss in their last eight games, something San Antonio has not done since 1997 when big man Tim Duncan was still playing at Wake Forest. Suffice it to say, I think this proud, revenge minded champion comes to play today and finds a way to get job done at the end of the night. Houston signed Josh Smith and then went out and beat Memphis 117-111 in overtime on Friday, Smith would score 21. In my mind, this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Rockets after that big victory. Conversely, there’s no question which team will be the “hungrier”, not only will the Spurs be looking to atone for their recent lacklutre efforts, they’ll also be looking to avenge a listless 98-81 setback to the Rockets on November 6th, a game in which San Antonio played without Duncan and Manu Ginobili; both are expected to be in the line-up today (the Spurs have in fact lost six straight in this series). Whether Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard play today or not doesn’t matter in my opinion, note that Houston is a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while San Antonio is 12-8 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational opportunity, play on the SPURS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Detroit Pistons.

While I obviously believe that the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. There’s no question which team will be the “hungrier” here. Detroit returns from the X-Mas break without Josh Smith in the lineup, the high-priced forward was let go: "He's taking the most shots," Detroit coach Stan Van Gundy argued yesterday. "He's got the ball in his hands a lot. We would have had to have reduced his role offensively. I don't think he would have been happy with that at this point in his career. ... I thought it was best for him, I thought it was best for us. If we were 12-16 or 10-18, we probably wouldn't be here. We're 5-23. That calls, in every respect, for some adjustment. Some things had to be different." There’s no sugar-coating Detroit’s play to date, it’s struggled on both ends of the court, but from a situational stand point I think this is a golden opportunity to take advantage of, whenever an organization makes a big move like the one that the Pistons just made, invariably the team will respond with a resounding effort across the board and that’s exactly what I expect here. And to say this is a revenge spot would be a bit of an understatement I think as Indiana has won eight of the last nine in the series. I also think that the Pacers come in a bit complacent here after winning two straight and who could be without the services of big man Roy Hibbert who is listed as day to day. Note that Indiana is just 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 85 points or less, while Detroit is 30-16 ATS in its last 46 after scoring 105 points or more. Grab as many points as you can with DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat.

This is a situatioally based selection. I played on the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday and they’d fall apart down the stretch and fail to cover with the large 14 point spread in Cleveland, an unfortunate setback, but we can make up for it here. The Cavaliers have won three in a row SU and back to back ATS, and after tonight play in Orlando on Boxing day. Miami on the other hand has lost three of its last four, including an embarrassing 91-87 home loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. Of course LeBron will be “pumped” today, but in my opinion the Heat will clearly be the “hungrier” team in this position. Not only will Miami be eager to beat its old teammate, but it will also be extremely focused to atone for the recent lacklustre overall play of late. From strictly a motivational stand point, there’s no question in my mind which team has the advantage. And note that one area that the Cavs have consistently been mediocre in this year is their play on the road, while they do come to town with a 6-5 SU record away from friendly confines, note that they’re just 4-7 ATS. Also note that Cleveland has already shown a penchant for having a “letdown” in this position as it’s a poor 3-5 ATS this season after three or more consecutive SU victories. It would be great to have Chris Bosh in the line-up for us, and if I were 100% sure he was going to play, then this selection likely would have garnered a 10* rating, but regardless of whether he plays or not, I think MIAMI is indeed the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic.

For a number of different situational, motivational and trend based reasons, I expect the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The Magic will certainly be the more motivated as they look to snap a four-game slide. Boston would win its first game without Rajon Rondo in the lineup, but then quickly fell apart in the second, a 100-84 setback at Miami on Sunday. Boston shot just 39.8 percent in their lowest-scoring game of the year and unfortunately for the C’s, a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as the Celtics have lost five of their last six away from friendly confines. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, Boston would beat Orlando 109-92 on Wednesday, the C’s 12th win in the last 13 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, this is a very solid play, note that Boston is just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 after scoring 85 points or less, while Orlando is 10-6 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest. Play on ORLANDO.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

For me, this is strictly a situationally based selection; I believe this to be a classic “letdown/lookahead” spot for the home side and like the visitors to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Of course, this is going to be a “weird” game for the Cavs’ Kevin Love, he’ll be playing his first game against his former team for the first time. And not to be outdone, Cleveland then plays on Christmas day in Miami, LeBron James in South Beach for the first time since his trade. This is a perfect situation that both the Wolves (and us!) can take advantage of. And for me, it’s as simple as that. I believe the Cavs’ big weapons come in a bit distracted, leaving the back door open just enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Houston Rockets.

A couple of the best in the West face off on Monday night and as you can tell by the line, the oddsmakers pretty much think this is a pick-em game. And why not? The Blazers are the hottest team in the league right now, but the Rockets start has been equally as impressive and they clearly have the home court advantage working for them. So where’s the value? In my opinion, home floor advantage is a factor which can’t be overlooked, I look for Houston to take care of business in its own building. We also can’t overlook the massive revenge factor, as it was Damian Lillard’s buzzer-beating 3-pointer in Game 6 in last season’s Western Conference playoffs which sent the Rockets packing for the summer. Portland has been fantastic of late, it’s coming off a 114-88 win over New Orleans on Saturday, which was on the heels of beating the Spurs 129-119 in a triple OT thriller the night before. Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Portland. Houston on the other hand comes in razor focused, it’s already lost back to back games for the second time this season. There are a ton of situational and motivational factors working in favor of the Rockets today, but also note that the Blazers are just 6-7 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Houston is 9-7 ATS this season versus good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. This number should be a little larger in my opinion, play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* PACIFIC CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Sacramento Kings.

After losing to the Lakers earlier in the month and looking to avoid a season-high sixth straight loss overall, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Sacramento was SO close to stopping the slide last time out as well, big man DeMarcus Cousins returned to go 8 of 12 for 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists, but it wasn’t enough as the Kings would fall 108-107 to the Bucks for their tenth loss in their last 12 games. Sacramento went 2-8 with Cousins sidelined, but I think the team will come in focused here. Also note, the way in which the Kings lost to the Lakers this year will not be sitting well with them, they allowed Kobe Bryant to score nine of his 32 points over the final 3:15, LA would rally from a seven point deficit to win 98-95 (Cousins did not play in that one). Note though that there is some room to read between the lines in that performance, Black Mamba shot only 11 of 27 that night and he’s been even worse since, he was just 12 of 15 on Friday and was held to just nine points in a disheartening 104-103 home to loss to Oklahoma City. The Kings will also be hungry to avoid a five game slide in front of the home town crowd. It’s a perfect set of motivational and situational factors that we can take advantage of. Also note that LA is already a poor 5-6 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points or more per contest and 1-3 ATS vs. divisional opponents, while Sacramento is already 2-1 ATS vs. division opponents this year, 2-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 6-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more in its previous contest. After considering all of the above factors, I believe this number is just a little low; play on SACRAMENTO.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

For a number of different reasons I think that the home side can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this matchup. I believe that Toronto finally comes in a bit complacent here, it’s won four straight; conversely, there’s no question in my mind that Detroit will be the “hungrier” team tonight as it’s looks to avoid a 13th straight home loss, the Pistons worse such run in nearly half a century. I also believe this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for Toronto which would hammer Brooklyn 105-89 at home on Wednesday, getting some minor revenge after the Nets knocked it out of the playoffs last year. Detroit has lost 11 straight at The Palace of Auburn Hills after falling to Dallas 117-106 on Wednesday. There are now plenty of trade rumors swirling around the Pistons, which will only have Detroit players on their toes in my opinion. This is also a “revenge” spot for the home side after Toronto took all three meetings last year. And with a game vs. the lowly Knicks at home on Sunday, it’s hard not to imagine Toronto taking this stretch of play a little lightly. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that the Raptors are a poor 4-7 ATS this year after a win by 10 points or more, while Detroit is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 after scoring 105 points or more. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, there’s no question in my mind that the PISTONS are the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I jumped on this line before the news of the Rajon Rondo trade, but regardless of whatever it closes at, I love this selection for obvious reasons and look for the hungry Wolves to take advantage of a suddenly discombobulated Celtics team. Boston shipped Rondo to Dallas for Jameer Nelson and some draft picks and suffice it to say, without their general on the floor conducting the flow of the game, I think the C’s suffer badly tonight. From a situational stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this. And then when you add on some incredibly strong ATS trends working in Minnesota’s favor, there’s no question in my mind where the value lies; note that the Wolves are 5-4 ATS in their last nine following three or more consecutive SU losses, while Boston is just 2-6 ATS in non-conferenc contests this season. Grab as many points as you can and unload on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the LA Clippers.

After a sluggish start, the Pistons have looked a lot better of late, especially against the spread. And after a torrid run, the Clippers have come back down to earth for bettors recently. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting “normalcy” to return today and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA has won seven straight in this series and I don’t expect anything to change tonight. A big reason behind the lop-sided domination has been the play of dynamic PG Chris Paul who has averaged 20.8 points and 11.6 assists in going 5-0 vs. the Pistons since joining the Clippers. Most recently Paul would score 23 points in the third frame in his team’s 104-98 road win in Detroit back on November 26th. While LA won SU in that one, it did not in fact cover the spread, which I feel only strengthens today’s pick. Paul and the Clippers will also be looking to atone for Friday’s 104-96 setback in Washington in which he finished with six turnovers and also for Saturday’s 111-106 setback to Milwaukee on Saturday in which he had the same amount: “We have to defend," Paul assessed after the back-to-back losses. "We have to play better." Detroit has won two in a row, ending a 13-game slide in Friday’s 105-103 victory at Phoenix, before then beating Sacramento 95-90 the following night. As I like to say, even the sun has to shine on a dog’s bum-hole every now and then; suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting the Pistons to return to mediocrity tonight. Note that LA is among the top-shooting teams in the league at 47.9 percent, while Detroit ranks dead last at just 40.9. And note that Detroit is just 5-10 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while LA is 4-1 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. In my opinion, after taking all of the above factors into account, I feel that this line should in fact be a bit larger and do indeed believe the value lies with the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ATS BEATDOWN on the Dallas Mavericks.

Both of these teams are surging, but I think the home side comes to play today and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Warriors haven’t lost in more than a month, but I think will be in for a big surprise today as they face the league’s highest scoring team on its own floor. It’s not too hard to imagine Golden State coming in a bit complacent here, it’s won 14 straight by an average of 13.3 points, most recently pulling away for a 105-93 victory over Houston on Wednesday. Golden State has been getting the job done with tough defensive play, but Dallas is among the NBA’s best in field-goal shooting at 48.2 percent and averages a league-best 110.5 points. Dallas also comes in with considerable momentum, it’s gone 7-2 SU in its last nine and has scored at least 105 in nine straight overall. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be an understatement I think as Golden State would win the final three meetings between the teams last year. Also note that many of the Mavericks best players are playing much better at home than compared to the road, Montae Ellis is shooting 51.3 percent in Dallas compared to 43.0 percent away from friendly confines (not surprisingly, the Mavs are averaging 115.5 points on their own court to lead the league). Also Dirk Nowitzki has been much better at home where he’s averaging 20.8 points on 56.3 percent shooting. Note that Golden State also comes in with some injuries, David Lee remains out with a hamstring issue, so too does Andrew Bogut with a knee issue. As good as Golden State has been this year for bettors, note that it is in fact 0-1 ATS this season as a road dog of 3.5 points or less, and note that Dallas is 16-12 ATS in its last 28 when playing with two or more days of rest. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the MAVERICKS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Wizards.

For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done, and while I obviously think the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Both teams come into this contest red hot, I simply feel that LA is going to finally have a letdown here after winning nine straight though. The Wizards will be looking to post their best home start in franchise history and move to 11-2 in the nation’s capital. Washington is coming off a couple of close contests, a 133-132 double OT victory over Boston before a 91-89 effort in Orlando on Wednesday. Note that the Wizards would commit a season-low ten turnovers and had 26 assists in that one; there’s no question that Washington is playing at an extremely high level right now: "When we play that way, it makes it hard for the other team," Wizards coach Randy Wittman assessed afterwards. "If we're getting 10 or 12 assists, we're going to get beat every time. We move bodies, we move the ball and we don't worry about who's getting shots. Normally we have guys on the floor who can score." One big reason why the Clippers have been playing so well has been because of point guard Chris Paul, but his play will be negated here by the Wizards’ John Wall. This is area is a wash. And without their “energizer bunny” leading the charge, I think the rest of LA will suffer tonight. And as good as the Clippers are offensively, note that the Wizards rank eighth in the league in allowing just 92.2 per contest. And to say this is a “revenge” game for the home side would be a bit of an understatement I think, including dropping both contests last year, the Wizards have in fact lost 10 of the last 11 in the series. And from a trend based stand point, they don’t get much stronger than this, note that LA is 3-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest, while Washington is 3-1 following a divisional contest this year, 2-1 ATS in non-conference games and 3-2 ATS vs. clubs with winning records. I think the home side comes to play today and when taking into account all of the above factors, all signs do indeed point to the WIZARDS as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

Boston is coming off a heart-breaking 133-132 double OT loss to Washington on Monday and I think will come out flat today. Conversely, the Horents finally got off the schneid in breaking a ten game slide by winning a thrilling 103-102 contest vs. the Knicks on Friday. With a few extra days off to refocus on the task at hand, I believe the stage is set for the home side to lay a real whooping on the C’s. Note that Charlotte will be welcoming back offensive spark plug Michael Kidd-Gilchrist after he missed 12 straight games with a foot injury. This is a great situational play, but it becomes even stronger when looking at it from a trend based stand point; note that Boston is 4-6 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more and 4-5 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. And note that Charlotte is 2-1 ATS this season as a home favorite of 3 points or less. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Portland Trailblazers.

Detroit is coming off its first ATS victory in quite some time but has lost 12 straight SU coming into this one and suffice it to say, I think the high-flying visiting side takes full advantage of this scuffling home side. These two teams are obviously moving in complete polar opposite directions right now as Portland is looking for a 14th win in 15 games. Home court advantage has been anything but for the struggling Pistons as they’ve lost nine in a row in Detroit; their last game was particularly heart-wrenching as they’d lose 96-94 to OKC, thir third conecutive winnable contest that got away from them. It was a narrow loss vs. the Blazers last December 15th, as Portland would escape with a 111-109 win thanks to star Damian Lillard’s shot as time expired. LaMarcus Aldridge would lead the way with 24 points and 11 boards in his team’s 103-99 win at New York on Sunday; keep your eyes on the Portland big man as he comes in having strung together a season-best five consecutive double-doubles. I simply can’t see Detroit slowing down or keeping up with the Blazers who come into this contest averaging a whopping 108.5 points during a six game win skein away from friendly confines. It’s also super important to note that Portland has given up an average of just 91.8 points in starting a perfect 9-0 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year (note, conversely that Detroit is just 1-9 vs. the West this year). Note that Portland is 7-2 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while conversely (once again!), Detroit is a poor 2-6 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest. In my opinion, this line should in fact be a lot larger, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Phoenix Suns.

Phoenix will look to get back to its winning ways and to also avenge an earlier loss to LA, while I obviously feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Clippers have won nine of their last ten and I think will finally come in a bit complacent, just the opportunity the Suns (and us!) can take advantage of. The Pelicans were the Clippers latest victim, LA would cruise for a 120-100 victory on Saturday. Phoenix will also be looking to atone for a somewhat listless effort vs. the Rockets on Saturday, a 100-95 setback after shooting a combined 53.0 percent in back-to-back victories. From a trend based stand point, this play becomes even stronger, note that Phoenix is 6-3 ATS this season vs. teams that average 99 plus points per contest and 6-4 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. Conversely, note that LA is just 4-6 ATS in front of the home town crowd this year and only 3-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. In my opinion, this situation, the numbers and the trends do indeed all point to PHOENIX as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers.

Atlanta comes in having won six straight and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot as Indiana will look to avenge an earlier loss and take advantage of what I think is a great situational spot. The Hawks have looked a lot better of late, but I think there is some room to read between the lines, their win skein has come against teams that currently own losing records. It’s not hard to imagine Atlanta coming in a bit complacent here as well, after Indiana the Hawks host the lowly 76ers on Wednesday before opening a home and home set with the Magic on Friday. Also note that the Hawks are coming off a game just last night, a 96-84 victory over Denver. After a decent start to the year, the Pacers have taken a step back of late, they return home off a winless four-game trip which concluded with a tough 102-101 OT loss at Sacramento. Note that Atlanta is in fact just 3-4 ATS this season as the underdog, while Indiana is 8-0 ATS this year following a non-conference game and 8-4 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99 plus points per contest. I’m backing the PACERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks.

For a number of different reasons I like the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Dallas has won the last four straight in this series and will be motivated to return to its winning ways after Friday’s 118-106 loss to Phoenix which snapped a four-game win streak. While the Mavericks did beat the Bucks 107-105 in Milwaukee on Wednesday, they did not cover the spread. One player to keep your eyes on is big man Tyson Chandler who had 18 points and 20 boards in the win over the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off a 109-85 win over Miami on Friday (I successfully played on the UNDER in that one), the victory snapped a three-game slide. Note though that the Bucks are a poor 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 85 points or less. And note that Dallas is 50-42 ATS in its last 92 vs. teams with winning records. In my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the MAVERICKS as the sharp move here.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ATS DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Pistons.

Philadelphia has been losing, but it’s been covering the spread, including last night’s game vs. the Thunder. The Pistons have been losing (10 straight), both SU and ATS, but I definitely feel that the conditions are finally right for Detroit to get off the schneid and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Philadelphia is 0-9 vs. Eastern Conference foes this year. This is the opportunity that the Pistons have been waiting for as they look to avoid losing 11 straight for the first time since 2010. Detroit had a shot in its last game but came up short in a 109-102 setback in OT at Boston, Andre Drummond had 27 points and 14 boards. And if history is any precedence, then the Pistons have to be loving their chances as Philadelphia has lost 13 of its last 18 in Detroit. From a trend based stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, note that the 76ers are just 1-2 ATS this year as road dogs in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while the Pistons are 2-1 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to DETROIT as the savvy move here.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Charlotte Hornets.

A great situational play here in my opinion, New York is coming off a game just last night at home vs. the Cleveland Cavaliers, this definitely sets up as letdown spot for the visitors in my opinion. Conversely, the desperate home side has lost ten in a row SU. This is also a revenge spot for the Hornets after falling 96-93 in New York back on November 2nd. From a “situational” stand point, this is as solid as a selection as you could possibly ask for. However, it becomes even stronger when taking into account some poweful ATS trends, note that the Knicks are just 2-8 ATS vs. teams with losing records this year, while the Hornets are 4-2 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. I like CHARLOTTE to pull away down the stretch for its long awaited victory.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets.

Despite being down a few pieces, I think the home side comes to play today. These are the league’s best defensive clubs and each comes in with considerable momentum. Houston will once again be without the services of big man Dwight Howard, but that’s not going to matter today for the revenge minded Rockets in my opinion. Memphis comes in on a five-game win streak, but will have its hands full today after beating Houston 119-93 back on November 17th, a season high for points allowed for the home side. A closer look at the numbers in that game reveal that Memphis shot season highs in that contest; simply put, I don’t see the visitors being able to accomplish that twice against the Rockets. Houston has already played without Howard for six straight games, so it is now fully accustomed to their current lineup, the Rockets are coming off a 117-103 win at Milwaukee in which James Harden scored 34 points, dished out seven assists, grabbed six boards and posted four steals. Note that Houston has hit a league-best 207 3-pointers so far this year as well. Note that this is in fact a spot that Memphis has struggled in for bettors, already 0-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games, it’s just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 in the same position over the last two. And note that Houston is 6-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records. Play on the ROCKETS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Boston Celtics.

For a number of different reasons I believe the visitors can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I believe is a healthy amount of points afforded to them in this one. I think Atlanta comes in a bit complacent here, it’s been playing much better of late, but I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spott after its big 105-75 home win over Charlotte on Saturday. The Hawks also beat the Pelicans 100-91 on Friday. As I always like to say, desperation breeds motivation and there’s no question that the C’s will be hungry here as they come into this game having dropped seven of their last eight after Sunday’s 111-89 setback to San Antonio. These teams split four games last year, but note that Boston is already 3-2 ATS on the road this season and 2-1 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Atlanta is 1-2 ATS this year when playing with two days of rest and just 2-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. A great situational play, this is a few too many points to be giving up here in my opinion, play on BOSTON.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the Utah Jazz.

While I feel the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I feel we’re getting excellent value here on the home side. The Nuggets have won seven of their last nine, most recently a 122-97 thumping of Phoenix on Friday and suffice it to say, I definitely think the team comes in complacent. It’s hard to get a true read on the Nuggets at this point, while they’ve looked a lot better of late, they started the year so poorly, in my opinion the book is still out on this team. Utah will be plenty motivated, Denver is still giving up an average of 110 PPG and the Jazz have yet to top the 100-point plateau in their last seven games. Utah is most recently coming off a 112-96 loss to the Clippers on Saturday, wasting a huge 30-point effort from team leading scorer Gordon Hayward. To say this is a “revenge game” as well would be an understatement as the home side has lost four of the last five in the series. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question this is a strong play as well, as note that Denver is just 3-5 ATS this year away from friendly confines, while Utah is a perfect 5-0 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. In my opinion, the situation, the numbers and the trends do all indeed point to the JAZZ as the sharp wager in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the LA Lakers.

With Toronto’s leading scorer DeMar DeRozan sidelined, I think the home side can at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel to be a healthy amount of points afforded to it in this one. LA is a poor team, but will be motivated here to avoid a fifth straight loss and take advantage of the absence of DeMar DeRozan who is averaging 19.4 point for the Raptors; DeRozan torn the tendon in his left groin in Friday’s 106-102 home loss. Toronto still has plenty of weapons, but I think there will be a small adjustment period for the visitors, the perfect opportunity for the hungry Lakers (and us!), to take advantage of. LA will certainly be motivated here as well after falling 120-119 to Minnesota on Friday. Kobe Bryant continues to lead the charge, he’s averaging a league best 26.4 points. Note that Toronto is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite in the 6 to 9 points range, while LA is 5-4 ATS this season after allowing 105 points or more. Consider sprinkling a little on the money line as well, play on the LAKERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Dallas Mavericks.

A couple of the league’s best go head to head and as you can tell by the spread, the oddsmakers think this game will come down to the wire. So do I and as such, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. Toronto has won six straight and hasn’t won seven in a row since Vince Carter’s reign North of the border. Both teams can put the rock in the hole, I don’t see any point in talking about or analyzing individual player matchups on the offensive end of the court. For me, this is mainly a situationally based play: Dallas comes in with momentum, it had lost two in a row before rallying past New York in Wednesday’s 109-102 win in OT. This is also a big contest for Dallas as it’s the first stop on a four-game road trip. And lastly, Dallas plays with double revenge after losing both in the series last year, Toronto overcoming deficits of at least 19 points in each victory. Note that the Mavs are 4-2 ATS on the road already this year and 2-1 ATS vs. good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. And note that Toronto is just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 after three or more consecutive SU wins. While the outright win isn’t out of the question obviously, grab the points; play on DALLAS.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Charlotte Hornets.

This is a great situationally based selection. Desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded tonight. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the surging Warriors, they’ve won seven straight. Conversely, Charlotte already has its back against the wall at this point of the season as it’s lost seven straight. This is also a “revenge” game for the home side after it fell 112-87 in Golden State on November 15th. Note that the Hornets weren’t overly horrible in their 105-97 setback to red-hot Portland on Wednesday as Brian Roberts come off the bench to score a career-high 24, while big man Al Jefferson added 21 points and 14 boards. Interestingly, the Warriors have dropped 13 of the last 15 in Charlotte and are just 28-31 ATS the last two seasons after a victory by ten points or more. And note that Charlotte has been money in this spot for bettors, 5-3 ATS in its last eight following a non-conference contest. While I won’t go so far as to call for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair and will ultimately recommend in grabbing as many points as you can; play on the HORNETS.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* UNDERDOG SUPER PLAY on the Minnesota Timberwolves.

I think the Spurs come in a bit complacent here and the underachieving home side at least keeps it close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the healthy amount of points it’s been afforded here. Missing a few key pieces, the Wolves would get a season-high 37 points from Kevin Martin and pull away for a 115-99 win over New York on Wednesday to snap a five-game slide. San Antonio has won five of six, including a 92-90 win at Cleveland on Wednesday, playing over its head with Marco Belinelli, Matt Bonner, Tiago Splitter and Patty Mills all sitting because of injury. San Antonio is notorious in playing down to the level of its competition and I think comes out a bit flat here; note that the Spurs are just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this year, while the Wolves are already 3-0 ATS at home this season and 2-0 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in their previous contest. While I won’t call for an outright upset win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up, play on MINNESOTA.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Raptors.

Both of these teams are playing well but I think the home side will take care of business and pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover once the final horn sounds. Milwaukee hasn’t won three straight on the road in over two years and I don’t think will be able to knock off the top dog in the East today. Toronto is coming off a convincing 96-92 home win over Memphis on Wednesday, another big fourth quarter was the difference as the team is averaging an NBA-best plus-5.4 margin in the final frame. Also note that the Raptors are allowing just 21.2 PPG in the final 12 minutes and have outscored all but two teams, sporting a plus-53 advantage in their last five. Let’s give the Bucks credit, they look a lot better this year, but I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot after Wednesday’s 122-118 triple OT win at Brooklyn. This is a big game for Toronto as it looks to close out a seven-game home stand on a strong point; note that the Raptors are allowing just 93.4 PPG while going 7-1 at the Air Canada Centre. And note that Milwaukee is 1-5 ATS in its last six after three consecutive victories, while Toronto is already 5-3 ATS this year in front of the home town crowd. Look for the RAPTORS to do just enough to cover this spread.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Charlotte Hornets.

The Magic are coming off a beatdown loss at home at the hands of the Clippers and I think are ripe for the picking here as well. As I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets leave it all on the court today as they look to avoid a season-high fourth straight loss. Charlotte will be extra motivated here as well after the way it lost last time out, giving up the decisive basket with just 0.7 seconds left in the 88-86 setback to Indiana on Wednesday. Note that Orlando has really struggled in this spot for quite some time, a deplorable 29-50 ATS the last two seasons when playing against a team with a losing record and just 14-18 ATS in its last 32 divisional contests. And note that this is a spot that the Hornets have excelled in, already 2-0 ATS vs. division opponents this year, they’re also 3-2 ATS in their last five as a home fav in the 3.5 to 6 points range. In my opinion, this line should be a lot higher, play on CHARLOTTE.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the LA Clippers.

This is a big game for the Clippers who play the first of seven on the road and suffice it to say, I like this underachieving visiting side to take control of this contest from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA will be extra motivated here as it looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this year, most recently coming off a listless 105-89 setback to Chicago on Monday. It was a pathetic effort, it was the second time in three games that the Clippers were held to under 90 points, already matching their total from last year. Orlando has actually played the Clippers tough recently, they’d split both meetings in each of the last two seasons. Orlando has played better than expected at 5-7, living and dying with the 3-ball, knocking down a season-high 13 in 26 attempts in Monday’s 107-93 win at Detroit. However, take note that Orlando has struggled in this spot for bettors for a LONG time, it’s a deplorable 36-48 ATS the last two seasons in front of the home town crowd and oddly enough, just 29-44 ATS in the same time frame vs. poor defensive teams which give up 99-plus points per game. Conversely, this is a position that the Clippers have been money in, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 24-15 ATS in their last 39 off an upset loss as a favorite. As I said off the top, this is a very important game for LA, while I also think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Magic; play on the CLIPPERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the New York Knicks.

The Knicks have won six straight in this series and are looking to avoid falling to 1-5 at the Garden this year: "Losing is tough," said Carmello Anthony after the Knicks’ 97-95 home loss to Orlando on Wednesday. "I thought this was a game we could have went out there and gotten tonight, kind of get that monkey off our back. So this is a tough one to swallow." A date vs. the Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, New York has won six straight over Utah by an average of 17.5 points, Anthony has led the charge in averaging 31.5 points on 55.3 percent shooting in two victories last year. This is a tough spot then for the visitors who are making their fourth stop on a five-game trip, Wednesday’s 100-97 loss in Atlanta capped an embarrassing nine-point fourth quarter effort. Note that Utah is just 26-34 ATS the last two seasons after a non-conference game, while New York is 18-15 ATS in its last 33 off an upset loss as a favorite. I think the conditions are finally right for the struggling KNICKS to put it all together and look them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* NON-CONFERENCE SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Denver Nuggets.

As primarily a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of “situations” that I look for as I think that the home side is going to have a “letdown” here after it’s big win on the road over the Miami Heat. Conversely, the Nuggest come in desperate for a victory and as I’ve always said: “Desperation breeds motivation!” While the outright win is obviously not out of the question in my opinion, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. I think the Pacers come in a bit complacent here, they’re coming off back-to-back wins, while the Nuggets haven’t tasted victory since an 89-79 season opening win over the Pistons. Denver actually ranks near the top of the league with 101.5 possessions per 48 minutes, but is 29th in the league in points allowed: "It's not offensively, it's defense, and defense is about effort," head coach Brian Shaw said last night. "As a coach, I have to find a way to get that kind of defensive effort consistently out of whoever it is that I put out there." From a trend based stand-point, this is definitely a solid selection as well, note the Denver is 47-40 ATS the last two seasons following after scoring 105 points or more, while Indiana is a poor 9-15 ATS in its last 24 off an upset win as an underdog. Look for the NUGGETS to come away with at least the ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit has already foiled me twice this year, two late collapses which saw it unable to cover the spread. The Pistons have yet to cover the spread once yet this year but I think can finally keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch with that I feel is a healthy amount of points that they’ve been afforded in this one. The Wizards are off to a great start, but note that they haven’t won six of their first eight games since 1975. Note that these teams split the four-game series last year. Washington has been getting the job done defensively, meaning that Detroit needs to up its game here; the Pistons averaged 101 PPG last year, but rank 29th in the NBA with 91.9 this season. In fact, Detroit and New York are the only two teams left to yet score 100 points in a game this year; suffice it to say, I think that trend ends today, as the Pistons last went eight games without scoring 100 points in 2011. From a trend based standpoint, this is definitely a sound wager, note that Detroit is 15-10 ATS in its last 25 as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Washington is just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 when playing with three or more days of rest. Grab as many points as you can with the PISTONS.

AAA Sports 

This is a 10* play on the LA Clippers.

I think the home side will do just enough here to escape with the SU and subsequent ATS victory. LA would love nothing more than to kick the defending champs while they’re down. The Spurs are just 2-3 and hardly resemble the squad that won the title last year, most recently losing 100-99 to New Orleans on Saturday. San Antonio simply can’t score right now, it ranks in the NBA’s bottom third in scoring, field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and turnovers per game. Key injuries aren’t helping matters as the team will once again be without the services of Tiago Splitter, Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills. The Clippers are 4-2, but have yet to cover the spread, they beat Portland 106-102 on Saturday, unable to cover on the closing line. This plays gets stronger when taking into account the revenge factor, San Antonio took two of three in last season’s series, including the last two by double digits. Note that the Spurs are just 21-22 ATS the last two seasons following a divisional contest, while the Clippers are 43-32 ATS the last two years vs. teams with losing records. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, all signs point to LA as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Lakers.

If you didn’t know, Charles Barkley has vowed not to eat another meal until the LA Lakers can get a win. Chuck must know something though, we all know how much he enjoys eating. While the oddsmakers have the Lakers as the underdog here, I think they have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright, ultimately though I will recommend grabbing as many points as you can. A big advantage I think for LA today is the fact that it’s had four whole days off to refocus and prepare for this one. Kobe Bryant had 39 points in a 112-106 home loss to Phoenix on Tuesday: "Just get a damn win," Kobe said yesterday. "You can't listen to what everybody says. You can't listen to people. You've got to be stubborn as a mule. You've got to keep chipping away. Got to keep competing and going after it, and this thing will turn around. Just as easily as we lost five in a row, we can turn around and win five in a row." "It's good to have a few days to home in on a few things, and work on stuff that needs to be done," coach Byron Scott said. "There's a good vibe. Our guys understand that it's the start of the season and not the end." Charlotte is 3-3 and has won two straight, but note that it’s already 0-2 on the road this season, a place that it’s struggled in for a long time. Note that Charlotte is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while LA is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. Consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well, play on the LAKERS.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* INTERCONTINENTAL EXPRESS on the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons haven’t covered the spread once this year, in fact in their last two games they would collapse late and really screw backers over. However, I finally feel the conditions are right today and expect the home side to pull away down the stretch. The Pistons though have plenty to be optimistic about, they’ve won two straight and today’s contest represents the finale of a four-game home set, added motivation to finish strong before hitting the road. One player you’ll want to keep your eyes on today is Kentavious Caldwell-Pope who is shooting the lights out, 60 percent while also nailing 7 of 12 from behind the arc in the back-to-back victories. A date vs. the defensively challenged Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to keep the the momentum rolling, Utah is allowing opponents to hit 48.2 percent from the field which easily ranks among the worst in the NBA. And unlike the surging Pistons, the Jazz come in off their worst game yet, committing 23 turnovers in a 105-82 home loss to the Mavericks, also shooting a season-worst 42.6 percent. In all Utah is averaging 16.5 turnovers per game. Note, this is also a “look ahead” spot for the Jazz who have a game in Indiana tomorrow night. In my opinion, this line should be higher, play on DETROIT.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Clippers.

The Clippers have not covered the spread once yet this season, but I think will finally pull away down the stretch in this one for the comfortable ATS cover. And certainly LA will be ultra motivated here after a humbling 121-104 setback to the Warriors last time out: "For me, I need to do a better job," head coach Doc Rivers said afterwards. "I told the guys that. This is not their fault." But the home side needs no more motivation than simply looking at its upcoming competition (Portland, San Antonio, Phoenix and Chicago); suffice it to say, I think it’s all hands on deck this afternoon. Portland is coming off back to back satisfying wins, a 101-82 victory over Cleveland and then a 108-87 victory over Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are loaded with offensive talent and I don’t need to get into individual player matchups, this is a great situational play in my opinion; Portland is already 0-1 SU on the road this year and will get caught “looking ahead” to its game at home vs. Denver tomorrow night. And note, despite the ATS struggles this season, this is in fact a spot that LA has dominated in over the last two years for bettors, a superb 37-24 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. I think LA takes this one personally and pushes the tempo from the outset; all signs point to the CLIPPERS as the sharp move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SCORPION on the Phoenix Suns.

The Kings have reeled off four straight victories, both SU and ATS and suffice it to say, I think finally have a letdown here and look for the home side to take full advantage. Sacramento has been getting the job done with some great defensive play, although it was its offense which proved to be too much for Denver on Wednesday, a 131-109 blowout win. The Suns are coming off a tough 102-91 setback to Memphis on Wednesday, Eric Bledsoe led the charge with 23 points. In the wide open Pacific division, this is an important early contest; note that Sacramento is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 divisional contests, while Phoenix is 18-15 ATS in its last 33 vs. divisional opponents and 11-8 ATS in its last 19 off an upset loss as a favorite. Look for the Kings to finally take a step back today and for the SUNS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons play with revenge here and catch a deflated Knicks team which is coming off a loss just last night; when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The home side will certainly be the more motivated team, it hasn’t won a single game so far this year and I think that new coach Stan Van Gundy will have his troops ready to play. A bright spot for the home side has been the play of big man Greg Monroe, who had 18 points off the bench in his season debut, a 102-90 setback to Brooklyn on Saturday. The Knicks can empahtize with the struggling Pistons offense, they’ve averaged just 88.5 PPG as they try to get accustomed to the new triangle offense. After back to back victories over Cleveland and Charlotte, New York came out flat in last nights 98-83 setback to Washington. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of games that I keep my eyes open for, desperation breeds motivation and all signs point to the PISTONS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Brooklyn Nets.

If you’ve followed me for any length of time you know that I’m a situational handicapper which tries to exploit lop-sided numbers and trends. Minnesota is already 3-0 ATS this year, but I think will stumble here vs. what I feel is a severly undervalued Nets team in this situation. New head coach Lionel Hollins has New Jersey in position for its best four-game start since 2007. Big man Brook Lopez returned to pour in 18 points in the Nets last victory: "I can't put it in words," said Lopez afterwards. "It was great to be back out there. I've missed it for a long time." Note that the Nets rank near the top of the NBA with almost 108 points per contest on nearly 50 percent shooting. I’ll give props to the Wolves so far, the young team has played well, but they’re coming off a deflating 106-105 defeat at Chicago last time out. I think this sets up as classic letdown spot for the visitors and look for the surging NETS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* ART OF THE GAME on the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons play with revenge here and catch a deflated Knicks team which is coming off a loss just last night; when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The home side will certainly be the more motivated team, it hasn’t won a single game so far this year and I think that new coach Stan Van Gundy will have his troops ready to play. A bright spot for the home side has been the play of big man Greg Monroe, who had 18 points off the bench in his season debut, a 102-90 setback to Brooklyn on Saturday. The Knicks can empahtize with the struggling Pistons offense, they’ve averaged just 88.5 PPG as they try to get accustomed to the new triangle offense. After back to back victories over Cleveland and Charlotte, New York came out flat in last nights 98-83 setback to Washington. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of games that I keep my eyes open for, desperation breeds motivation and all signs point to the PISTONS as the savvy move in this one.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* WEST-COAST EXPRESS on the LA Lakers.

The winless Lakers are severly undervalued in this position in my opinion and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Lakers are off to their worst start since moving to the West Coast: "Just stay the course," said Kobe Bryant, who shot 12 of 28 and had 28 points in a 127-104 loss at Golden State on Saturday. "We still have a lot of room for improvement, but we're moving in the right direction." Both newcomers Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer have struggled, but desperation breeds motivation and after losing in Phoenix just last week, I think the Lakers play their best game to date. The Suns are coming off a poor 118-91 loss to Utah on Saturday. Note that Bryant was on top of his offensive game vs. the Suns, going 11 of 25 from the floor for 31 overall points. I simply don’t feel that the LAKERS are as bad as they’ve shown and like them to keep this one at least close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Clippers.

The Clippers are 2-1 but 0-3 ATS; suffice it to say I think the home side comes out focused and fired up after yesterday’s listless 98-92 setback to visiting Sacramento. The Clippers finished with a season-low 37.5 percent shooting and were just 9 of 31 from 3-point range: “Luckily, we've got 79 chances to get better. In the locker room after the game, I said, 'It finally caught up to us,'" Clippers point guard Chris Paul said half jokingly last night. "We've been in here the past other two games and made it ugly but still won. Tonight it caught up to us." A date vs. the 1-2 Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, LA has shot nearly 50 percent in winning the last nine straight in the series. I also think this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Jazz after their one sided beatdown 118-91 win over Phoenix on Saturday. Note that Utah had given up a combined 224 points in its first two games and has allowed an average of 104.8 in the last nine with Los Angeles. I look for a highly motivated and focused CLIPPERS team to take its frustrations out on the lowly Jazz.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Portland Trailblazers.

“Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor. Throw in the “opening night” in front of the home town crowd angle and that fact that the leagues leading scorer is sitting this one out with injury for the visiting side and all signs point to an epic one-sided rout in my opinion. The Thunder will have to make some major adjustments to start the year, but the Blazers are fully healthy and ready to go. OKC’s Russell Westbrook certainly has the talent to carry the load, but the Thunder will now become much more one dimensional. With teams being able to double team Westbrook without fear of getting burned by KD, I think he’s going to have some trouble, and especially tonight. KD isn’t the only injured Thunder player though, note that Reggie Jackson is out with an ankle injury, so to is guard Jeremy Lamb; Anthony Morrow, Mitch McGary and Perry Jones are also all out as well. This OKC team is ripe for the picking, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damien Lillard, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez are 100% for the Blazers. Note that Portland also added big man Chris Kaman and veteran guard Steve Blake to bolster a bench which was the leauge’s lowest-scoring last year. In my opinion, this line should be a lot higher, play on PORTLAND.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* play on the Orlando Magic.

I jumped on this line early and got only +9, most of you would have gotten +10 (or better). Regardless, I think Orlando is the savvy wager here as the majority of the public jumps on the “sexy” Pelicans. New Orleans has a great player in Anthony Davis, he’s coming off a great sophomore campaign in which he averaged 20.8 points, 10 boards and 2.8 blocks. Davis is expected to once again dominate, but in my opinion, his supporting cast is weak. I’m not reading too much into the Omer Asik or John Salmons signings. Those three are joined by Ryan Anderson and Jrue Holiday who are finally fully healthy. Despite Davis dominating the Magic last year, note that Orlando managed to split the season series. Orlando will once again be one of the East’s worst, but I think can surprise the Pelicans here and keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Magic drafted Aaron Gordon, the fourth overall pick this summer; he’s joined by Ben Gordon, Luke Ridnour and Willie Green; the biggest free agent signing was Channing Frye, who won’t be playing tonight due to injury. I simply don’t see a blowout happening on opening night and while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, do definitely feel that this is too many points to be giving up here; play on ORLANDO.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the San Antonio Spurs.

AAA Sports Has: +4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4.5

While I feel the outright win isn’t out of the question, I’ll ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect this one to once again be decided in the waning moments. With the air-conditioning working, the Heat looked a lot better in Game 2, and really the SU win could have gone either way. I expect another extremely competitive affair tonight. "They came out great. They played a great game," San Antonio guard Tony Parker said after the Heat’s 98-96 win in Game 2 "Now it's our turn to go over there and get one. We played pretty well all season long on the road and so we're going to have two great opportunities to try to come up with a win." Miami has been almost impossible to beat at home in the postseason the last few years, it’s won 11 straight, the last team to win their in the Playoffs are the Spurs in Game 1 of last season’s Finals: “We are in a tough situation because we've got to go to Miami and we've got to get one," Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. "We don't want to come back here 3-1 down. It's very hard to overcome that. Definitely going to be a great challenge for the team to play in an arena like that and having to win." If there is one thing that San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich has proved this post-season is that he’s been extremely adept at making necessary adjustments after a loss, specifically against the Mavericks and Thunder. Another all out war produces another nail-biter; grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat.

AAA Sports Has: +3.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4.5

As you can see, I jumped on an early line, most of you should be able to get 4 or better. Regardless, I think Miami has a real shot at stealing Game 1 outright, but will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Just like last year, I think this will be another incredibly close series: "I think it's great that these two franchises have this opportunity in back-to-back years to compete for a championship," Heat guard Dwayne Wade said Wednesday. "Last year was an unbelievable series and ... it went down to the very end. We won the series by a total of five points, you know? That's how close it was. But it was a very even series. I think this year it could be another great series." Both teams are healthier than they were a year ago, but I think a big difference maker in Game 1 is going to be the play of Wade, who will have a distinct advantage over the Spurs’ Tony Parker, who sprained his ankle in the series win over the Thunder. Wade was used sparingly throughout the regular season and has looked great in the Playoffs. San Antonio has looked very vulnerable at times during the postseason, and for the most part the Heat have quietly gone about their business this year and looked much better; I think that dominance gets carried over here. Grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

his is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the San Antonio Spurs.

AAA Sports Has: +4

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4

If the San Antonio Spurs want to win the NBA title this year, they’re going to have to win some tough ones on the road and with a chance to punch their ticket to the Finals and get their long awaited re-match with the Miami Heat, I look for them to do just enough today to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the handful of points they’ve been afforded in Game 6. While there have been some dramatic blowouts so far in this series, I think Game 6 sets up as a nail-biter. In retrospect, it’s quite obvious that the Spurs were taken off guard by the return of Serge Ibaka, it took a couple of games to adjust but San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich finally solved the puzzle and I’m looking for a repeat performance here. Popovich was able to get the spacing he needed by putting out perimeter-shooting post players alongside veteran Tim Duncan, which in turn forces Ibaka off the block, allowing San Antonio’s perimeter players to get to the hoop. So while home court advantage has played a big part so far in this series, I think that trend ends tonight, that the Spurs have figured out how to play Ibaka and while I do think the outright win is definitely not out of the question, I will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: +7

Worst Case Scenario Line: +7

I jumped on this one early, and the line would drop to 6, however, bettors were quick to jump back on the two-time defending champions and most of you should be able to get 8. Regardless, I feel that Indiana has a legitimate shot at winning this one outright. The Pacers took the Heat’s best punch and survived Game 5. The Pacers have won in Miami each of the last two seasons in the Playoffs, but have yet to do so this year; I like the hungry visiting side to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe is a very healthy amount of points. Miami has won ten straight at home and has not lost back to back games in the playoffs since 2012, so while it won’t be an easy task, I believe this is a great opportunity for Indiana to catch the Heat a bit distracted, the team clearly still rattled by what it thought was some pretty questionable calls in Game 5. The Pacers’ Paul George continues to shine, he had 27 points, while Miami All Star LeBron James was held to just seven. Miami looked horrible, sloppy, and it wasted a golden opportunity to put a dangerous team away. I expect this to come down to the wire again and will grab as many points as I can. 

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: +6.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +6

So far I’m a perfect 3-0 in this series. I had the Pacers in Game 1, the “under” in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3. With its back against the wall, I look for Indiana to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points that it’s been afforded. Remember, the Pacers took the Heat to 7 games last year and have won in Miami each of the last two postseasons. This is a do or die game for Indiana, a 3-1 deficit would be just too big of a hole to climb out of in my opinion. Momentum, motivational and situational factors and many other things have to be taken into account from game to game in the postseason. During the regular season, I primarily base my selections more on numbers and lopsided trends and statistics, but in the Playoffs, it’s a much more fluid process for myself. Indiana jumped out to a huge lead in Game 3, but would slow its attack and ultimately flail horribly down the stretch; I do firmly believe it’ll be much sharper today (note that Indiana had 19 turnovers which led to 26 Heat points): “The little brother (his team the Pacers) spends his whole life getting beat up by the big brother, getting beaten in sports, sporting events, 1-on-1 basketball and what-not," Indiana coach Frank Vogel assessed yesterday. "All those years of getting beat up builds him up to the point where he ultimately takes on the big brother." Note that the Pacers have actually led for 99 of the 144 minutes played so far in this series which equates to about 69 percent of the time. Miami could easily be in a 3-0 hole at this point but has used some epic rallying to save itself in each of its two victories. I expect another nail-biter and am grabbing as many points as I can.

AAA Sports

: This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: -2

Worst Case Scenario Line: -2.5

It’s do or die for the Thunder, a 3-0 hole will simply be too much for it to overcome and as such, I look for the home side to throw everything it has at the surging Spurs and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Serge Ibaka could be back in the line-up for the Thunder, but with or without him I love the home side to avenge the two losses. Ibaka is missed of course, but Kevin Durant is the MVP of the league and Russell Westbrook is enjoying a fantastic playoffs. The Spurs were just better in Games 1 and 2 and used home court advantage…well, to their advantage. Suffice it to say, I expect OKC to do the same here. Let’s not forget, the Thunder fell behind the Spurs 2-0 in the Western Conference Finals before then winning the series 4-2. No need to overanalyze this one, I expect the home side to ride the wave of emotion and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on OKC.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat.

AAA Sports Has: -7

Worst Case Scenario Line: -7

After getting blown out in Game 1, the Heat fought hard in Game 2 and in the final few minutes would pull away for the comfortable ATS cover. LeBron James and company “found their groove” and I look for that momentum at the end to be carried over here as I expect the home side to jump out to an early lead to and to never look back. Tied 1-1 and going back home for Game 3, I believe the pressure is on the Heat tonight. Note that Miami big man Greg Oden has been cleared to play: "If coach needs me, I'm ready to play," Oden said yesterday. "I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me." Miami is fully aware that the Pacers have won five straight away from friendly confines: “I don't know if the home court really matters right now in the playoffs," Heat coach Eric Spoelstra assessed last night. "It's more about your collective disposition, and you're imposing that identity on the other team. I think either team could win home or away." Note that the Heat are 5-0 at home in the playoffs this year, winning by an average of 10 points per game and shooting almost 50 percent from the field collectively: “Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years," James said. "We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play." I couldn’t agree more; play on the Heat.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: +6

Worst Case Scenario Line: +6

Despite being down big man Serge Ibaka, I think that the desperation level in which the visitors will be playing with today will turn out to be the difference in the end. I played the “over” in Game 1, my reasoning was that I believed the Spurs would relentlessly attack the rim with Ibaka sidelined. OKC would then be forced to play catch-up throughout. That’s exactly what happened. But this is (in my opinion), do or die for Oklahoma City. The loss of Ibaka is big, but it’s not so big that league MVP Kevin Durant and All Star Russell Westbrook can’t overcome his absence in my opinion. I think Westbrook and Durant will get some support from the role players today, I simply can’t see Kendrik Perkins, Thabo Sefolosha and Nick Collison combining to score just five points again. Impossible. With Durant and Westbrook turning up the pressure even more tonight, and the supporting cast contributing, I definitely expect OKC to sneak in through the back door with the healthy amount of points it’s been afforded here. We can expect some line-up changes from Thunder coach Scott Brooks as well; Brooks elected to go with a smaller line-up in Game 1, but will have to move in the big unit for Game 2. While it may be hard to believe, I think the Spurs come in a bit complacent here, it’s been pretty easy up to this point for them, but I think they’re in for a surprise tonight. Look for a much better defensive effort from Oklahoma City and grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5

So here we go, it’s the Eastern Conference Heavyweight bout that we’ve all been waiting for. These two teams are of course extremely familiar with each other, in the 2012 postseason Indiana led 2-1 before the Heat would then rebound to win three straight. Last season the Pacers would take Miami to a Game 7. In my opinion, the double revenge factor plays big into Game 1, I expect the home side to throw everything it has at Miami as it looks to defend home court. And home court is big, the Pacers were unstoppable in the first half of the season, and while it stumbled at times over the second stanza, that effort has now paid off big time as they control their own destiny: “I think we like being the underdogs," Indiana’s Lance Stephenson said yesterday. "We like when everybody is talking about us. I think it makes our game a little bit better. It makes us want to go out and play harder, so I like being the underdog and everybody talking about us and trying to bring us down but we stay together as a unit, stay poised in the locker room. It just makes us stronger." Bad news for the Heat, Pacers big man Roy Hibbert finally got untracked in the Washington series; Hibbert menaced Miami last year and he’ll play a pivotal role in the outcome of both this game and the series. Miami may be thinking about going small and trying to stretch the Pacers defense, but after surving two straight series of that game-plan, I think Indiana is ready for whatever the two time defending champs throw at them. So while the Heat have played good enough defense to beat the Pacers in the playoffs the last two years, I think the home side has finally matured and will be ready to take the next step. At least in Game 1 that is! Grab as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the LA Clippers.

AAA Sports Has: -4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -5

I believe we’re going to a Game 7 and expect the Clippers to put forth their best overall effort of this series. I took the Clippers in Game 1, the “under” in Game 2, the Thunder in Game 3 and then the “under” in both Game’s 4 and 5. LA actually had Game 5 in the bag before an unreal set of blunders committed by the usually sound Chris Paul; LA would blow a 13-point lead with just over four minutes to play. So does Paul dwell on the major “brain-fart”, or does the blunder galvanize him to lead his team to redemption in Game 6? I believe the latter. Paul’s teammates quickly came to his defense and will be unbelievably charged today to help their brother get some vindication tonight. Did you watch Game 5? Do you think Paul fouled the Thunder’s Russell Westbrook on that final 3-point shot? Pretty damn ticky-tacky in my opinion. Remember, OKC just blew a 16-point lead with nine minutes left in Game 4 at the Staples Center. These teams are now even. Ultimately though I believe the difference will be two factors: I believe the team rallies around Paul and that determination combined with home floor advantage leads to a comfortable cover for the Clippers. Lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH” on the Brooklyn Nets.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5

I took the Heat in Game 1 and won. I took the Nets in Game 2 and lost. I then took Brooklyn in Game 3 and won. After going 6-1 with the Nets in their first round match-up with the Raptors, I am now 2-1 with them in their second-round match-up with Miami. So here we are with Game 4; when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect Brooklyn to once again keep it close enough to at the very least escape with the ATS cover. In reality, the Nets very well could have easily won Game 2 as well, they were within 2-points of the Heat late in the fourth quarter, but the team collectively had its worst shooting performance all year. I like the home side to build of its last effort, and think it will look even sharper this time around; note that Brooklyn hit 15 of 25 from behind the arc and outrebounded Miami 43-27 in Game 3. The Nets have done a superb job in slowing down LeBron James, who is now averaging just over 20 PPG in this series after scoring just 20 in Game 3: “We just had a little success against them during the regular season. We played them well and we feel like we match up well with them," Nets star guard Deron Williams assessed afterwards. "And if we're on top of our game, we're playing defense the way we're capable of playing, like we did the last game, we put ourselves in a good position to win." Miami has been excellent in bouncing back after a loss in the Playoffs during its back-to-back titles, but I think that trend gets bucked tonight; the Nets are loaded with experience as well and I like them to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5

It’s do or die time for the Brooklyn Nets. Time to put up or shut up. The four regular season victories over Miami will be flushed down the proverbial crapper with another lacklustre effort. I played the Nets in Game 2 and they looked fantastic for 3.5 quarters, and then would implode down the stretch, we’d miss the cover by a bucket. I believe this is finally the spot that the Heat have a let down in the Playoffs, Brooklyn isn’t going to get swept and this is a prime situation to back this highly motivated home side. There’s no way that Nets’ star point-guard Deron Williams is going to go 0 for 9 again; the same can be said for the veteran Kevin Garnett who finished just 2 of 8: “We have a lot of confidence in ourselves," Garnett said. "We just have to go home and defend our home court." Brooklyn has done a very good job in defending LeBron James, he’s averaging just 22 points; all the Nets had to do was to hit a few open shots and there’s no question in my mind that they could have taken Game 2, coming home to Brooklyn all tied up. Despite all of the shooting woes Brooklyn endured, it was within just two points midway through the fourth quarter; with just a tiny bit of improvement, the Nets can win this one outright: “We need a win. It's a must-win," Williams commented. "We can't afford to go down 3-0. We need to get these at home starting with the one on Saturday." I think the writing is on the wall; the Nets’ finally play a full four quarters and at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door once the final horn sounds.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: +3

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4

If you’re like me, you are waiting patiently for the daily lines to come out. I often jump on lines right away, and some times this works beneficially and other times it doesn’t. In this case, I thought the line would move the other way, but it has not as the public was quick to jump on the home side. Regardless, I still like this selection at +3 and look for the Thunder to build off their big Game 2 win. OKC’s Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook were unstoppable and the supporting cast stepped up in the dominant Game 2 win which wasn’t as close as what the final score indicated. Durant had 32 points, 12 boards and nine assists, while Westbrook exploded for 31 points, 10 boards and 10 assists. Note that it was the second straight game that Oklahoma City outrebounded the Clippers: "We have to take that and then add to that," OKC coach Scott Brooks assessed afterwards. "You can't be satisfied. The intensity as the series goes along improves and it becomes greater, and we have to make the next jump." The Thunder were excellent defensively as well and I expect that momentum to be carried over here, holding Sixth Man of the Year Jamal Crawford to just seven points on 2 of 13 shooting. With the Clippers keying on Durant and Westbrook, look for the Thunders’ big men to assert themselves tonight. I think Oklahoma City exposed a major weakness of the Clippers in Game 2 and look for it to employ an identical game-plan tonight. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Brooklyn.

AAA Sports Has: +8

Worst Case Scenario Line: +7.5

I was 6-1 in Brooklyn’s opening round and am 1-0 in its second round series with Miami after taking the Heat in Game 1. I believe the Nets come to play today and expect them to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Heat were fresh and they caught the Nets tired, off of a brutal 7 game series vs. Toronto; I definitely feel that Brooklyn will make the necessary adjustments to keep Game 2 much more competitive. The Nets have been pretty damn good in this position all year, going 12-4 SU in games immediately following a 15 points or more setback: “We've been tested, beginning of the season, middle of the season, late in the season and in the first round," Nets’ coach Jason Kidd assessed yesterday. "It's nothing new to us. Hopefully we can draw from that experience and help us find a way to win Game 2." Despite the 21 point loss, Brooklyn can find a few silver linings in the performance as it kept the Heats’ Dwayne Wade and LeBron James away from the foul line, the two combining to shoot just two the entire night, as well as finishing with just 13 total turnovers. So while Wade and James were held in check, the Nets would allow the supporting cast to pad their stats, something they know they can’t let happen again if they expect to win this series: "That hurt," Brooklyn’ guard Joe Johnson said about Miami’s bench production. "Defensively, that's not us, man. We can't let the other guys around LeBron and Wade have 15, 17 points. To beat this team, you can't allow that." It wasn’t Brooklyn’s backcourt that struggled either, which is a good thing in my opinion; Johnson and Deron Williams would combine to go 14 of 21 and the Nets will need these two to keep the pressure up. Bottom line is, this is a do-or-die game for the visitors as they’ll be fully aware that James and Wade have never lost a series after being up 2-0. I won’t call for the outright upset but I do expect a much closer Game 2; grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat.

AAA Sports Has: -7

Worst Case Scenario Line: -7

Brooklyn managed to gut out a seven game series over the Raptors in its Opening round, while the Heat have been off after sweeping the Bobcats in four. Brooklyn took all four games off Miami this year, winning three by a single point and the other in double over time. Suffice it to say, unlike what Indiana did yesterday, I look for the higher seeded two-time defending champions to take advantage of the older and extremely tired Nets, to send a clear message in this opening game and to avenge the earlier setbacks at the same time: “They figured out a way to beat us four times and that hasn't happened," said Heat star Dwayne Wade yesterday. "So we've got to crack that code." For me this selection is simple, it’s situationally based; Brooklyn barely got by Toronto and now hits the road to play arguably the best team on the planet that’s rested and ready to do some damage. I’m expecting Miami to jump out to an early lead and to never look back; play on the Heat.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the LA Clippers.

AAA Sports Has: +5.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +5.5

Both teams are coming off tough seven game opening round battles; I believe tonight’s contest will be a war as well and will therefore grab as many points as I can. Both teams are going to look to get out and push the pace of this game; LA led the league in scoring during the regular season with 107.9 PPG, Oklahoma City ranked fifth at 106.2 per game. However, LA now has a blueprint to beat the Thunder as OKC is very similar to Golden State in many respects; I think the Thunder will have their hands full though as they had to play 7 games vs. an opponent that has an entirely different style than LA. The Clippers will look to take advantage of a shaky Kevin Durant who struggled throughout most of his opening round series. I think a big difference maker will be Blake Griffin though, he’s finally fully matured and is now a veteran. OKC big man Serge Ibaka is going to have his hands full with Griffin, who is now equally adept at firing away from the inside as he is at taking it to the rack. I look for the visitors to rally and to give the home side everything it can handle; while I do think the outright win is very possible, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -4.5

I played on Indiana in Games 6 and 7 in its opening round series vs. the Hawks. No doubt about it, that was a super interesting 7 games. Atlanta took the No. 1 seed to the brink, but the Pacers would “find” themselves in those two final games and I look for that confidence and momentum to get carried over into this contest. Washington is a very similar team to Atlanta and Indiana now has a blueprint in which to attack it: “I think (Atlanta) helped us in terms of understanding how to be in gaps, being there for one another, rotating, so we're ready for the next round," the Pacers’ Paul George said yesterday. Washington though also looks to establish its big men, its pivotal in its game plan to keep defenders honest and it opens up stuff from the outside for it sharp-shooters. However, Marcin Gortat and Nene will have their hands full on both ends of the court with the bigger and more athletic David West and Roy Hibbert. Indiana will also comes in sharp to this first contest, while the Wizards have had a full five days off; I think the visitors will be a little flat-footed and rusty to start. And finally, Washington has simply struggled in Indiana for years now, it’s lost 12 straight there including both times this year. I look for Indiana to send an early message with a convincing effort; play on Indiana.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “SUPER BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets.

AAA Sports Has: +3

Worst Case Scenario Line: +3

It’s all come down to this. I took the “under” in Game 1, the Raptors in Games 2, 3 and 4, the Nets in Game 5 and then finally lost in this series by taking the Raptors in Game 6. I’ve won with both teams so far in this series, but think that Toronto wasted a huge opportunity in putting way this dangerous Nets squad. Brooklyn was finally able to dictate the pace and flow of the game on both ends of the court and I expect this veteran laden club to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the handful of points it’s been afforded. Brooklyn came up just short in Game 5, erasing a 26-point deficit to score 44 points in the final frame, and that momentum was clearly carried over into Game 6: I think our momentum will carry over," the Nets’ Andray Blatche said yesterday. "I think we found the recipe." Let’s not forget, Brooklyn beat the Raptors in Toronto in Game 1. Toronto is stumbling, it barely held on for the win in Game 5 and was dominated thoroughly in all facets in Game 6. I believe the savvy experience the Nets bring to this contest can not be overlooked; the Raptors’ entire roster has played in a combined seven Game 7’s, which is one less than Brooklyn’s Paul Pierce alone. Here’s an interesting tid-bit which the oddsmakers were likely unaware of when setting this line; Toronto is just 3-7 SU this year in games which start before 6 PM EST. I believe the pressure is on Toronto, it was the higher seed which had a golden shot at putting away Brooklyn in Game 6, but stumbled horribly. Look for Brooklyn to employ an identical game-plan as what it used in Game 6 and grab those points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -5.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: 

I played on the Pacers in Game 6 and I look for the oft-criticized No. 1 seed to once again find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. Indiana All-Star Paul George has averaged more than 20 points in all six games and has double-doubles in five of them. George has also been the teams best defender, he’s done a much better job of slowing down Atlanta’s prolific scoring guard Jeff Teague. "My thing is that three of the last four times we've played these guys (in Indy), they built 20-point leads and beat us pretty good," Pacers coach Frank Vogel said yesterday. "So I don't think anyone from this team can think we're going to be OK just because we're back home." Atlanta has to be feeling pretty shaky coming off the Game 5 setback, it battled back from that nine-point deficit, even took a five-point lead late in the fourth quarter yet it still lost both SU and ATS. Vogel finally found a defensive match-up that was effective in slowing down the Hawks spread offense, a smaller line-up was the key. With what will be a wild crowd backing them, I like the home side to play its most complete game of this series and wrap it up with a resounding effort. Lay the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: +5.5

Worst Case Scenario line: 5

This has been a roller-coaster series, of my five-straight victories, none have been easy, all have been close and each has come down to the wire. In Game 1 I had the “under”, in Games 2, 3 and 4 I took the Raptors, I then took the Nets in Game 5, and their improbable fourth-quarter comeback would produce winner No. 5. In Game 6, while I do think the visitors have a legitimate shot at winning outright, I will in the end grab as many points as I can. "We have no doubt. We're very confident," Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez said yesterday. "We're not going to underestimate them, but we're going to go there with the mentality that we're going to fight and we're going to do whatever it takes to get this win. We're very humble, but at the same time we're very hungry. We need to leave it all on the court. We've got to win Friday. It's not going to be easy but that's what we're looking for." Brooklyn rookie coach Jason Kidd has his hands full now with a couple of disgruntled players in Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Pierce had just 10 points in Wednesday’s setback and his team would get outscored by a whopping 31 points while he was on the floor. The younger Raptors have the elder statesman just where they want them, they will be pushing the pace of this contest from the outset, a major advantage for sure. In another highly competitive contest, I’m grabbing the points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Memphis Grizzlies.

AAA Sports Has: +2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5

With a chance to dispatch Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder on their home floor, I look for the Memphis Grizzlies to keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak away with the ATS cover. Memphis gutted out a 100-99 OT win in Game 5 Tuesday night in OKC. The Grizzlies can become only the second No. 7 to take down a No. 2 in a best of seven series. "Still a race to four," Memphis’ Mike Miller said yesterday. "We like where we are, but we have a lot of stuff we have to accomplish yet." Four games so far have gone to overtime in this series and Memphis has blown big leads in each contest that has seen the extra frame: “I’m getting tired of it," Grizzlies’ guard Tony Allen remarked. "Hopefully, we do the things we need to do to try to avoid that, and that's taking care of the ball down the stretch." Durant and Russell Westbrook have been simply shut down in this series, and I don’t see that changing tonight; Memphis has held the Thunder to below 40 percent shooting in four straight games. Memphis is the deeper team and I look for its hard-nosed defensive play to once again be the difference tonight; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, as mentioned above, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -1

Worst Case Scenario Line: -1

With its back against the wall, I look for the beleagured No. 1 seed to play its most complete game of this series and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Atlanta has looked good. I wouldn’t go so far as to say great though. Indiana’s issues stem all the way back to when it traded Danny Granger, which is strange, because the sharp-shooter hardly played this year (or last), and the player that the Pacers picked up in Evan Turner is arguably as good, or better. But since that move, the Pacers have not been the “same” club. That said, I still believe they’re the better team; it’s better coached, it’s deeper and has more talented players. The Pacers won a pivotal Game 4 in Atlanta, holding the Hawks without a field goals over the final 4.5 minutes, Indiana will be playing with the extra confidence in that fact. All of my playoff selections are situationaly based picks, and that’s the case here. I think we’re getting great value on this line, Indiana has looked shaky but in this pressure packed situation, I like the No. 1 seed to rally on the road and to push this to a decisive Game 7; lay the short point/s.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets.

These two teams battled tooth and nail in the regular season and so far it’s been an all out war in the playoffs. Toronto came out on top 87-79 in Game 4 on Sunday. I had the “under” in Game 1 and have taken the Raptors in Games 2, 3 and 4. Toronto covered the spread by a single bucket in Games 2 and 3, before pulling off the outright upset in Game 4. With their backs against the wall, I look for the venerable visitors to keep this one competitive down the stretch and to come away with at least the ATS cover at the end. The Raptors and the media can talk all they want about being the underdog, but the Nets will be playing with the extra motivation of being the dog tonight. It’s safe to say that we’re going to see a heavy dose of the Nets’ Deron Williams who scored 22 and 25 points in Brooklyn’s two victories. We can also expect the Nets to press early; Brooklyn ranked fourth in the league with 8.6 steals per game is No. 2 so far in the playoffs with 9 per contest. And that’s bad news for the Raptors who had a whopping 59 turnovers through the first three games. The scheduling has also greatly favored the older Nets in this series, this is now the third time that they’ve had two whole days off between games. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, I’m grabbing as many points as I can.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Memphis Grizzlies.

AAA Sports Has: +6.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +6.5

I’m going back and forth in this series, last time out I had the Thunder, this time I like the Grizz to at the very least keep it close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe is a pretty healthy spread they’ve been afforded. OKC’s big men Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins did a great job on the Grizzlies Zach Randolph in Game 4, but struggled previous to that. I think Randolph returns to form here; note that Randolph averaged 17.4 points in the regular season, but has upped that mark to 18.3 in the playoffs. "We've got to try to get some motion with the ball movement from side to side, so when the ball does come back to him, he gets the ball at a better position closer to the basket," Memphis guard Mike Conley said of making sure Randolph gets some open looks. "I think he's been too far out having to work too hard to get to his spot." For the most part these games have been really close, decided late or in extras. There is nothing more I can add about each team’s strengths and weaknesses which hasn’t literally been said a thousand times at this point by all of the talking heads out there, even the most casual NBA fan is fully aware. I definitely feel that the writing is on the wall and that we’re going to see another war; I’m grabbing as many points as I can. Play on Memphis.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: +4

Worst Case Scenario Line: +4

New Jersey has played better than I had originally thought it would in this series. I had the “under” in Game 1 and the Raptors in Games 2 and 3, narrowly getting the cover in both. There’s defnitely no reason to think that Game 5 won’t follow suit; I fully expect it to come down to the wire again. Brooklyn won 102-98 last time out, Toronto got into some early foul trouble and was never able to really mount the comeback. In particular Kyle Lowry was roughed up pretty good, he had 15 points and four assists in 38 minutes and then fouled out: "They're paying so much attention to me, sometimes they're playing 4-on-4," Lowry assessed afterwards. "And honestly, it's one of those things where we as a team make an adjustment, but personally I've got to find a way to get the ball and get more aggressive." Keep your eyes on the visitors’ DeMar DeRozan who had his second-straight 30-point game. Also note that Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas was also in early foul trouble and took just four shots. You could see Brooklyn starting to get tired in that fourth quarter, the Raptors battled back from a 15-point deficit with just 5.5 minutes left; this is a major opportunity for Toronto which can finally take advantage of a tired/old Nets side. As stated off the top, the outright win is obviously not out of the question, but I’ll grab the points in the end just to be safe; play on Toronto.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “ASSASSIN” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

AAA Sports Has: -2.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -3

Oklahoma City has looked great for one half of basketball, other than that, Memphis has been the better team. Down 2-1, I finally expect the Thunder to play a full four quarters and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. OKC’s sharp-shooter Kevin Durant struggled in Game 3; in my opinion, I think it’s safe to say that he’s going to respond in a big way tonight: "I just didn't make shots," Durant assessed yesterday. "That's the name of the game. But I liked the way I cut, I liked the way I was aggressive. But I have to do a better job of maybe passing the ball a little bit more and also making shots. I've got to stay confident in myself." Durant still scored 30 in the 98-95 OT setback; Russell Westbrook also had 30; however, they were just a combined 4 of 21 from beyond the arc, KD missed all eight of his shots. The Thunder’s supporting cast will be asked to step up, they were just 5 of 28 for 17.9 percent. I’m anticipating that the Grizzlies are going to get caught off guard today and not be ready for the pace in which OKC is going to play at. Look for the Thunder to have made some major adjustments to finally get their shooters some open looks as the momentum once again shifts in this series; lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: +5

Worst Case Scenario Line: +5

I had the “under” in Game 1 of this series and the Raptors for a close cover in Game 2. I think the shift in venue will benefit the visitors, the home town spotlight is off of the younger club and while the outright win isn’t out of the question, ultimately I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Brooklyn was excellent at home down the stretch, but home court has meant little so far in this playoffs, and for the Nets to assume anything would be a big mistake. Especially because of how well the Raptors performed on the road this year, 22-19 away from friendly confines. Toronto won its first trip to Barclays Center this year and will have to play through the fall out of Toronto’s GM dropping the F-bomb on Brooklyn. I look for Toronto to answer the call here though, as it pushes the pace from the outset and runs the geriatrics off the floor down the stretch. Play on Toronto.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Oklahoma City looked like “OKC” in the first half of Game 1; since then, it’s been the Grizzlies who have dictated the tempo of this series. We shift to Memphis now tied at 1-1 and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Thunder to bounce back after a tenative effort in Game 2 and look for them to pull away down the stretch for a comfortable ATS cover. Winning on the road is something that the Thunder have done all year, they’re 25-16 away from friendly confines, the league’s second-best road mark during the regular season: “Everybody's going to be there. They're going to have T-shirts. They're going to be swinging towels," OKC star Kevin Durant assessed yesterday. "It's the playoffs. It's going to be hostile, but we've been there before." It’s no big secret what each team will do today; Memphis needs to slow the game down and to work the ball down low to its big men. OKC wants to push the pace every chance it gets. I think the momentu swings once again, the Thunder catch a somewhat complacent Grizzlies team a little flat footed to start and ekes out the SU/ATS win for us. Lay the short points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “OPENING ROUND SIDE OF THE YEAR” on the Charlotte Bobcats.

AAA Sports Has: +10.5 -105

Worst Case Scenario Line: +10.5 -130

Charlotte failed to cover the spread by a single bucket in Game 1. I think the Bobcats can duplicate or even better that mark in Game 2 and will therefore grab as many points as I can. Al Jefferson’s availability is in question, but I seriously don’t think it will matter here for the Bobcats, who for the most part played without Jefferson in the first game. The Charlotte big man was injured in the first quarter and then would hobble through the final three-quarters, completely ineffective. Note that the Heat also have a major injury concern, starting point guard Mario Chalmers was held out of practice yesterday with deep shin bruise. We can expect the visitors to get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist involved as much as possible, Charlotte would actually outscore the Heat by eight when he was playing in Game 1; Kidd-Gilchrist will need to be careful though as he was on the floor for a season-low 15 minutes because of early foul trouble. And that greatly effected the Bobcats on both end of the floor, as Kidd-Gilchrist was tasked to primiarly stop LeBron James. History though is definitely on our side, it was just the 14th time this enitre season that Kidd-Gilchrist had at least four fouls in a game. Miami’s Dwayne Wade was highly effective in Game 1, but he’s always a question mark from game to game, which also plays into our hands here; note that Charlotte was 13-4 in its last 17 such situations in the game immediately following a setback, which means that they’re a highly resilient bunch. In my opinion, a great situational play, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the Bobcats. Grab the points.

AAA Sports

This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors.

AAA Sports Has: -4.5

Worst Case Scenario Line: -5

Like the LA Clippers and the Indiana Pacers, the higher seeded Raptors find themselves down 0-1 to their lower-seeded opponent. Suffice it to say, I look for the younger, faster and extremely skilled home side to push the pace of this game from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. A longer lay over should supposedly favor the older Nets, but I’m not buying it. Fatigue at this point, right at the start of the Playoffs will not be a factor for either side, even the venerable visitors. Look for the refs to be more “even keeled” tonight; Brooklyn was whistled for 18 fouls through the first three quarters, but only one in the fourth. One player to keep your eyes on is the home side’s big man Jonas Valanciunas, who scored 17 points and a team playoff record 18 boards; Brooklyn had no answer for him and I expect him to play a pivotal role in Game 2 as well. No need to overanalyze this one I don’t think. This is a “do or die” game for the home side and the sense of urgency it plays with today will turn out to be the difference; play on Toronto.

AAA Sports 

This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers.

AAA Sports Has: -7

Worst Case Scenario Line: -7.5

I had a bad read on the “under” in the Warriors/Clippers yesterday. LA would bounce back in a big way, it put its foot on the gas from the opening tip and did not let up until the final horn sounded. Indiana finds itself in a similar position, down 0-1 in its Opening series to the Atlanta Hawks. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar result here as the underachieving home side jumps out to an early lead and never looks back. For all intents and purposes, this is a “do or die” game for Indiana as it’s won in Atlanta only twice since December 2006. Forget about what you’ve read on the internet about this team being “soft” or not geling; it’s true that the Pacers have struggled over the last month and a half, but this is obviously an elite team which is filled with some of the best players in the league. I think the Hawks spread offense which worked so well in the first game will be under assault from the get go; look for the Pacers to play to their strengths with a dominant defensive effort. I simply can’t see the No. 1 seed going down 0-2 and look for it to respond in a big way today. Lay the points.

AAA Sports.