Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-04-21 | Jets v. Canadiens -150 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: After a 5-2 win over Vancouver, I believe the Jets, who have actually won five of their last six, will take a step back here on the road. Winnipeg averages 3.36 GPG, and it allows 2.64. The pick: Montreal, by far in my estimation, comes in as the "hungrier" team in this situation. The Habs had lost five in a row before a win over Ottawa last time out. Overall the Habs average 3.24 GPG, while allowing 2.81. Montreal has also lost three straight in this series, so the TRIPLE revenge-factor also comes into play here. I'm banking on the Canadiens finding a way to get the job done at the end of hte night. Lay it! This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on the Habs. |
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02-26-21 | Kings v. Wild -159 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in hot, but Minnesota's offense has been ridiculous of late and I like it to carry that momentum over here at home. LA has been exceptional of late as well, winner of five straight. But winning on the road is tough in the NHL and the Wild have conceded two goals or less in four straight games. The pick: Also note that LA is just 2-6 in its last eight after a five-games or longer unbeaten streak, while Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine after scoring six or more goals in a road victory in its last outing. I'm laying the price and expecting a lop-sided outcome. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Wild. |
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02-24-21 | Kings v. Blues -154 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -154 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis has been scuffling lately. LA has won five in a row. The Kings started off terribly, but they've arguably been the best team in the league over the last two weeks. One of the Kings most recent victories was a 3-0 win over these very St. Louis Blues in this very building just two nights ago. Can anyone say "letdown" spot for LA here finally? Especially with a tough back-to-back set in Minnesota just two nights from now. The pick: St. Louis has two whole nights off before a game at the lowly Sharks, so the Blues can absolutely put their full focus onto this contest as they look to avenge that poor effort vs. the Kings last time out. St. Louis is still 6-2 at home and I like it improve on that here. Lay the price, expect a blowout. This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on the St. Louis Blues. |
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01-29-21 | Blue Jackets v. Blackhawks +106 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This NHL season is based a lot on the "situation," and I definitely think this one sets up well for the Blackhawks. Colubmus comes in off a much-needed 3-2 SO win over the Panthers just last night. The win moved the team to 3-7 on the year. The Jackets have been consistently inconsistent and I just can't trust this "on-again, off-again" offense (or defense for that matter!) The pick: Chicago started the season with a few injury issues to key players, so the Hawks 2-6 record at this point isn't a big surprise. Chicago's only two victories this year have come at home. Granted, that's been over the Red Wings, but the Hawks have for sure been better at home on the road in the early going. Also note that Colubmus is just 2-7 in its last nine when coming off a win and playing a road game in the second game of a back-to-back. All things considered, this is what great line value is all about! The is a 10* ULTIMATE BODY-CHECK on the Chicago Blackhawks. |
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01-28-21 | Panthers v. Blue Jackets -132 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Columbus jumped out to a 2-0 lead vs. the Panthers two nights ago, and it had a 3-2 lead with just moments to go in the game before then giving up the tying goal, and then eventually losing in extra time. Who is the more desperate team in this matchup? Columbus has only two victories this year and six losses. The Panthers have played three games and they have three victories. The Jackets have to hit the road to take on an equally as hungry and desperate Blackhawks team tomorrow night as well, putting added incentive to finally get off the schneid here with a decent full three-period performance. The pick: I do think Florida finally has a letdown here after its torrid start to the season, as it has a night off before a two-game set in lowly Detroit. A great price here on the home side for sure in my opinion considering the circumstances. The is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Blue Jackets. |
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01-18-21 | Canadiens v. Oilers -106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The NHL season is a different one for sure. Teams will face each other at least twice in a row in the same building (not always on back-to-back nights.) After this the Habs actually play three straight in Vancouver, so I think the visiting side is going to get caught looking ahead to that difficult journey. The Oilers on the other hand are now just 1-2 after getting destroyed 5-1 by Montreal two nights ago. The exact same thing happened to Edmonton on opening night, as it lost badly to the Blues in that first game, before then bouncing back and easily taking the second. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting the exact same thing to happen here. The pick: Note as well that Montreal is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring five or more goals in a four-goals or greater road victory in its last outing. This one is extremely important to Edmonton and less so for the Habs. I'm laying the very reasonable price on the much "hungrier" team. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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01-17-21 | Capitals v. Penguins -109 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Capitals blew out the Sabres in their first game of the year, and then managed to hold on for the 2-1 win in the second. Now 2-0 and on the road again, I think the Capitals have a predictable letdown here. The Pens on the other hand are 0-2 after losing two in a row to the Flyers, most recently a 5-2 setback. Motivationally speak, this one sets up very well for Pittsburgh early today. The pick: Clearly if we went just on what these teams have done over the first two games, Washington is by far the better side. But let's not over-react after just two games. Washington is still probably the better overall team, but the Penguins are going to have a decent season and I expect them to dig deep here and find a way to get the job done for their first win of the year(great price too.) This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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01-15-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -139 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oilers lost to the Canucks on Opening night, but then bounced back in the second game. Colorado lost to St. Louis on Opening night, and now I look for it to do the same here, bounce back in fine fashion and get a lot more pucks on net in Game 2. These teams will play each other seven more times after this game, but I expect Colorado to risk life and limb here to avoid the 0-2 start to their conference rival. The pick: Colorado has done extremely well in this spot for bettors as well, going 4-0 in its last four after scoring two or fewer goals in a loss in its last outing. The Avs have also won 45 of the last 65 games when playing on one days worth of rest. I think the Blues are just happy that they've already earned the split, while it's "all hands on deck" for the Avs. Lay the price. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Avalanche. |
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09-23-20 | Lightning v. Stars +139 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This series is all tied up. Tampa's been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks though. Dallas took an uncharacterisitc 12 minutes worth of penalties in Game 2 and that was the difference in the end. And despite that, Dallas had a chance at the end for another victory. The pick: Tampa has to be "gassed" here after it seven game series previous and it's still banged up. The Stars are very disciplined and they're 6-1 in their last seven after allowing three or more goals in a one goals loss to an opponent in their previous outing. I'm expecting Dallas to respond in Game 3! This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Dallas Stars. |
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09-21-20 | Stars v. Lightning -150 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes, Tampa lost Game 1, but it was only its sixth game out of 20 so far in the bubble that it's dropped. The Stars have won four in a row, but I think that mental regression is imminent here. I also expect the Lightning to give their best shot to try even this series. The goaltenders are a "wash" for me in this series, so that particular factor is eliminated for me when figuring this series out. The Lightning started out flat footed and let in the early goal vs. Dallas, but I don't expect "lightning" to strike twice. The pick: Winning can lead to complacency. Obviously this is the Stanley Cup Final and each team is equally as "hungry" and motivated. TB is too deep and talented and I think it'll easily make adjustments to counter and considering all of the above factors, I do indeed feel we're getting a very good price as well in Game 2. So that's the pick, lay the price on Tampa Bay. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tampa Bay Lightning. |
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09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -149 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -149 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa's only lost five of its 19 bubble games. Dallas has lost eight of 21 in the bubble. This is a revenge game for the Lightning, in fact, DOUBLE revenge. Dallas won both regular season contests, both in OT. These teams are evenly matched in net, but I think Tampa is the much deeper and more skilled offensive club. Tampa's strength this season has been its adaptability, able to play a slower-paced defensive affair, or a faster-paced "shootout" without any issues. The pick: The Lightning are 7-2 in their last nine when playing with two or more days rest. The Stars have been off for five days and I believe that "rest" is going to lead to "rust." I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive victory. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tampa Bay Lightning. |
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09-11-20 | Lightning v. Islanders +140 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 140 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: New York threw in the "white towel" in its Game 1 loss, in which it was humbled 8-2. The Islanders came out fying in Game 2 and posted an early goal, which held late into the third period. The Lightning then scored with only eight seconds remaining in regulation to win the game. Do I think that the Islanders are going to get swept in this series? I absolutely do not. New York is well coached, it's disciplined, it's deep and it's blessed with World class goaltending. Tampa is the better team on paper and on the ice, but I think it has a mental letdown here vs. this determined and now very desperate Islanders team. The pick: Finally note as well that the Islanders are 8-3 in their last 11 after back-to-back losses. This is essentially "do or die" for the Islanders, as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for it to climb out of. I look for New York to get back into this one with a resounding victory! This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Islanders. |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -155 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 34 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Do we really need to overanalyze this pick? This Islanders have great goaltending and they're a very deep and disciplined team. The Lightning have fantastic goaltending and they are filled with talent, especially on the offensive end. The Bolts have been off for a few days healing up though, while the Islanders just went through a gruelling seven game series, one which they held a 3-1 lead at one point. One of these teams is fresh, and the other is dog tired. I think this will play a significant factor in Game 1. The pick: Note as well that Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine after a victory and playing with three or more days of rest. I think this is going to be a competitive series, but I don't think Game 1 will be. This price is great, the play is Tampa. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Lightning. |
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09-03-20 | Flyers v. Islanders -113 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Flyers in Game 4, but in Game 5 I look for the deep and talented Islanders to finally get the job done here and punch their ticket to the next round. With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And they are in all honesty. Goaltenders are a wash, but I do think that New York's depth over its four lines will prove to be the difference maker in Game 6 The pick: Additionally note that the Islanders are 7-2 in their last nine after allowing four or more goals in an OT loss in their previous outing. I expect New York's most determined effort so far of the playoffs as it puts the final nail in the Flyers' playoff coffin! The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Islanders. |
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09-01-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +106 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 106 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Philly will extend this series at least one more game. Down 3-1, I like Philadelphia to give its best effort yet of this series. Much like the Avalanche did last night vs. the Stars. Dallas came back down to Earth last night and I believe that the same thing is going to happen to the Isles here. One team is desperate and the other is complacent. With a line like this, the oddsmakers believe this is a very even game, but the motivation levels/factor tip the scales in favor of the Flyers in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that Philly is 7-2 in its last nine after a one-goal loss. The Flyers had a lead going into the third period last time out and messed up, but I don't expect that to happen again. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Flyers. |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -137 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado was a huge favorite in both Game's 1 and 2, but it's 0-2 in this series and now Game 3 is much closer to a "pick em." The Stars have looked great on both ends of the ice, but I think that the desperation in which Colorado plays with tonight will in the end be the difference maker. I don't expect Colorado to get swept and it'll be risking life and limb to try and avoid an 0-3 hole. The pick: Note as well that Colorado is 21-9-3 in their last 33 after getting outshot by its opponent, while Dallas is just 2-6 in its last eight after back-to-back victories on the road (technically, that's the case of course.) Look for this series to get a lot more interesting. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Colorado Avalanche. |
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08-21-20 | Flyers -129 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: With a chance to finally put the Canadiens away, I like the Flyers to dig deep here in Game 6 and to dominate on both ends of the ice. Montreal has definitely defied the odds to make it this far, getting past the Penguins in the first round and then winning two games so far in this series. Montreal has had a hard time stringing back-to-back victories together though and facing this skilled Flyers team, I think that'll again be the case here. The pick: Additionally note that Philly is 8-3 in its last 11 after a two goals or larger loss and allowing five or more goals at the same time. The Flyers were a significant favorite heading into this series and I think we're getting the "better" team at a great price in Game 6. Lay it. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH ON THE ICE on the Flyers. |
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08-20-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -111 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Capitals to continue their climb out of the 0-3 hole and push this series to a Game 6. Alexander Ovechkin had two goals in Game 4 and I love this experienced Capitals side to now respond, while all signs point to a classic letdown here for the Isles in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that the Isles are just 2-7 in their last nine after a one goal loss in the playoffs in their previous outing. "Momentum" becomes almost a tangible factor in the playoffs and if the Capitals really wanted to "bow out" they would have done that in Game 4. Washington is going to try and pull off the impossible here, but it's one game at a time. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Washington Capitals. |
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08-19-20 | Canucks +126 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canucks dominated the first two games of this series, but then the Blues managed to take Game 3 and then on the second game of the back to back, they also pulled out the Game 4. This series is all tied up now. Momentum is a funny thing, it has ebbs and flows and in this case, I believe Vancouver is going to come out firing and find a way to get the lead back in this series. The pick: These teams are very evenly matched (a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers), but I'll point out that Vancouver is 7-2 in its last nine after back-to-back losses. Great value on this double revenge side! This is a 10* UPPER-SHELF DESTROYER on the Vancouver Canucks |
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08-14-20 | Canucks v. Blues -144 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -144 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: This game was close until the third period and then the Canucks pulled away for the 5-2 win. The defending champs are still loaded with talent and veteran leadership though and I believe they're going to find a way here to bounce back. The Canucks young core is hungry, but they're in unchartered territory here now. I believe that St. Louis has the goaltending and pedigree to bounce back in this spot. The pick: And I also think this does indeed set up as a classic "letdown" position for Vancouver, which is 5-10 in its last 15 after scoring five or more goals and winning by three or more goals in its previous outing. The dogs were barking in Game 1, but look for St. Louis to deliver this time around. This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the St. Louis Blues. |
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08-13-20 | Flames -105 v. Stars | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Flames in Game 1 and if you didn't have a chance to read that analysis, I believe it's worth a look here, because for the most part the logic behind that selection, basically directly applies to this one as well: Calgary took two of three from Dallas in the regular season and considering these clubs recent form, I believe the Flames are going to find a way to get the job done in Game 1 of their opening round series. Interesting that these clubs have never met in the playoffs before. Yes the Flames finished the regular season with the 20th ranked offense, bu from January 1st on they moved up into the top seven. In fact Calgary averaged 4.0 GPG in its series win over the Jets. The Flames' special teams was solid with the power play producing at 29.4 per cent and the penalty kill at 88.2 per cent (while also adding a shorthanded goal.) A strong performance from Cam Talbot certainly didn’t hurt either. The netminder went 12-10-1 with average numbers in the regular season but posted a .945 save percentage, 1.51 goals-against average and one shutout in four starts against the Jets. The Stars looked terrible in their three round robin games, allowing an average of 36.5 shots per game to the opposition. Dallas was ranked 26th in the NHL in scoring before the break and it looked terrible on that end of the ice during the re-start. I'll back the better in form team here! The pick: Additionally note that the Flames are 7-2 in their last nine after allowing two or less goals in a victory in their last outing. Calgary looks better on both ends of the ice and I expect that trend to carry over here. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Calgary Flames. |
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08-09-20 | Bruins -120 v. Capitals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have lost both of their round robin contests, but the winner of this one will have the higher seed once the playoff begins. The last time these teams played together was on X-Mas Eve and the B's won 7-3. With one last chance before the playoff start and with the top seed on the line, I look for the league's No. 1 defense to dominate and to post a similar score here once it's all said and done. The pick: Additionally note that Boston is 7-2 in its last nine after back-to-back losses, while Washington is just 4-7 in its last 11 in the same position. I think the Bruins come with their "A" game here, so lay the short price. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Boston Bruins. |
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08-07-20 | Penguins -155 v. Canadiens | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -155 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Penguins are going to dip deep here and find a way to get the job done and push this series to a pivotal Game 5. Matt Murray is still 1-2 with a 2.50 GAA in this series. He also is 4-1-0 with a tiny 2.19 GAA lifetime vs. Montreal. The pick: Carey Price has been key in his clubs early success, as he's 2-1-0 with a 2.19 GAA. Overall though Price is only 13-14-5 with 3.01 GAA lifetime vs. Pittsburgh. Montreal has exceeded expectations and I believe a very predictable letdown is imminent here. The Pens are loaded with offensive talent and heart and I look for that to be on full display tonight. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout and then our first official Game 5. This is a 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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08-02-20 | Flyers v. Bruins -130 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -130 | 364 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched. On paper that would appear to be the case, as each pretty much dominated right up until the coronavirus break. Both teams have plenty of depth, talent and each is backed by superb goaltending. It honestly wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either team. All of that said though, I do indeed feel the best way to approach these opening games is from a "situational" stand point and in my opinion, Boston's experience is the trump card in this particular matchup. The Bruins have been among the league's best for many years and they lead the NHL in almost every offensive and defensive statistical category this season. The pick: "Momentum" is a very real, almost "tangible" thing in sports and I think the long lay off will absolutely throw the proverbial "monkey wrench" into the Flyers fantastic start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I'd say that this is the very definition of "great line value." 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Boston Bruins. |
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03-09-20 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -113 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Vegas comes in off a 5-3 win in Calgary just last night and I think the Oilers can take advantage of this now tired (and fully contented) visiting side in the second game of the back-to-back. Edmonton is off a convincing 4-1 win at home Columbus and it plays with revenge here after a 3-0 loss in Las Vegas at the end of February. Situationally this one definitely sets up nicely for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Edmonton is a super 22-15 (+9.9 units) this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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03-08-20 | Blue Jackets v. Canucks -144 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -144 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Columbus comes in off a terrible 4-1 loss in Edmonton just last night and at this price, I think the Canucks offer great value to post the victory. Vancouver finally broke a four game slide with a 6-3 win over Colorado (one of those four losses was a 5-3 setback at Columbus as well, setting this up as a revenge contest.) The Blue Jackets have three whole nights off after this before home games vs. the Penguins and Predators, so this also sets up as a "look ahead" for the visitors. The pick: Note that COlumbus is now just 9-18 (-10.3 units) in non-conference games this year, while Vancouver is 17-11 (+6.3 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest. All things considered, a great price on this one. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Vancouver Canucks. |
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03-07-20 | Predators v. Stars -143 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -143 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the second game of a home and home set. The Predators won the first one at home by a score of 2-0, snapping a three-game skid. Dallas has now lost four straight and I believe it'll risk life and limb here to try and avenge the loss in Nashville, while also breaking the slide. Nashville averages 3.16 GPG and it allows 3.09, while Dallas averages 2.63 GPG, while allowing 2.52. Clearly the margin for error is very slim for both teams on most nights, but situationally I think this one sets up fantastically for the home side and it definitely makes this a price in which I have on issues at all in laying. The pick: Note as well that Nashville is already just 2-3 (-1.3 units) this year after shutting out its opponent in its last game, while Dallas is 17-12 (+3 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent. I'm banking on a big time win for the Stars here. 10* NHL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Dallas Stars. |
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03-03-20 | Blues v. Rangers +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning seven straight and opening up a three-game road trip here, I believe the defending champs finally have a letdown in the Big Apple tonight. New York plays with revenge here after it fell 5-2 in St. Louis earlier in the season. New York had won five in a row, before back-to-back losses to the Flyers in a home and home set. The Rangers still have a shot at the playoffs, but they no longer have the luxury to look past anyone in the jam-packed Metropolitan. After a 4-3 shootout win over the Stars last time out though, I think the Blues do indeed finally have a letdown here vs. this desperate home side. Situationally everything sets up beautifully for the home side here. The pick: The Rangers are only six points behind third place Pittsburgh and note that they're 11-7 (+6.7 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. The stage is set for the minor upset in this one. 10* ULTIMATE SHOCKER on the New York Rangers. |
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03-01-20 | Capitals v. Wild +117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: These team's recent forms are polar opposities and I expect those trends to continue here. The Capitals are 3-6-1 in their last ten, while the Wild are 6-3-1 in their last ten. The Wild are peaking right now though and I believe they come in and fight to the death to try and win this game. The pick: Additionally note that Wasington is just 3-5 in its last eight as a non-conference road favorite in the -101 to -125 range, while Minnesota is 13-6 in its last 19 non-conference games. I think "home ice" matters big time in this particular matchup right now. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Minnesota Wild. |
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02-29-20 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens -121 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Carolina is likely the better team on paper in this matchup, but after its hard-fought 3-2 loss at home to Colorado last night, I believe the visiting side predictably comes in "flat footed" here. Montreal on the other hand won't be lacking for motivation here after two straight losses, including a 5-2 setback at home to the Rangers last time out. Situationally I believe this one definitely sets up great for the home side. The pick: Note as well that Montreal is 8-4 (+2.2 units) in its last 12 after suffering a two goals or larger loss in its previous outing. All things considered, I beleive this one falls under the defintion of "great line value." Play on the home side. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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02-15-20 | Predators v. Blues -125 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a win collide in St. Louis. This is the opener of a home and home set for the clubs, meaning that home ice is critically important to each. The Blues though also play with double-revenge after dropping both previous games to the Predators. Nashville looks poised for a letdown on the road here after a 5-0 home win over the Isles, while St. Louis enters on a three-game losing streak. Purely from a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for the home side. The pick: Also note that Nashville is a poor 1-3 (-2.5 units) already this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game, while St. Louis is already 5-1 (+3.6 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses. If not now, when for St. Louis? All things considered, a great price. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the St. Louis Blues. |
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02-13-20 | Flyers v. Panthers -130 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are equally as "hungry" for a win here. I am primarily a "motivational" handicapper, but this department is a "wash" tonight. The Flyers though are just 12-14-3 on the road this year, while the Panthers are 16-10-2. The pick: In fact note that the Flyers are ranked 28th in the league while on the road in goals allowed per game. They're also just 19th in goals scored per game as the away team. Florida is 28th in goals allowed per game on home ice, but it makes up for it on the other end by averaging the third most goals per game while in front of the home town crowd. Expect home ice to be the difference maker tonight. Great price as well in my opinion. 10* PLAY ON THE Florida Panthers. |
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02-11-20 | Rangers v. Jets -125 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg won't be taking this non-conference opponent lightly today, as it lost the reverse fixture in November by a score of 6-4. New York comes in off a 4-1 win at home over the lowly Kings, but a predictable letdown is imminent in this difficult road venue in my opinion. The Jets have won three straight and all signs point to this momentum getting carried over here. The pick: Note that the Rangers are a poor 7-10 this year after a win by two goals or more, while the Jets are 16-12 (+8.6 units) this season trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. All things considered, I think this is fantastic "line value." 10* BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Jets. |
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02-04-20 | Stars v. Islanders -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas beat the Rangers 5-2 last night, but I think it'll struggle on Long Island to find the back of the net vs. the stingy Islanders. Previous to last night's win the Stars beat the Devils 3-2 in OT on the road. It's difficult to win on the road and I think Dallas finally has a letdown here. The Isles on the other hand are eager to get back into the winners circle here after a 4-3 OT loss to Vancouver. Overall Dallas averages 2.59 GPG and it allows 2.49. Overall New York averages 2.86 GPG and it allows just 2.68. However note, not only do the Isles have the home ice advantage and the advantage of catching the Stars on the second game of a back-to-back, but they also play with "revenge" after falling 3-1 in Dallas earlier in the year. The pick: Despite the back-to-back road wins, I'll also point out that NY is just 40-44 (-13.8 units) in its last 84 non-conference games. The Isles on the other hand are 6-2 (+3.8 units) this season when playing with two days rest and 9-3 (+6.1 units) after allowing four or more goals in their previous outing. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Islanders. |
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01-31-20 | Flyers v. Penguins -163 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This is each team's first game back after the All Star break. Pittsburgh lost 3-0 to Philadelphia in each team's final game before the break, making this a prime "revenge" scenario for the home side. Note that the Pens are 18-5-3 at home this season, while the Flyers are just 10-13-2 on the road. The pick: Pittsburgh is 9-1 in its last ten vs. clubs with winning records, while Philly is just 1-4 in its last five on the road as an underdog in the -135 to -165 range. All things considered, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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01-29-20 | Maple Leafs v. Stars -110 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto can beat any team on any given night. Bust so can the Stars. Ultimately I believe we're getting great line value on this under-rated home team. Both teams came out of the break and posted a victory. Toronto's been decent offensively, averaging 3.60 GPG, but it's had to be, as it allows the eighth highest amount in the defensive end by conceding 3.26 GPG. Dallas is 16-7-2 at home this year. The Stars only average 2.57 GPG, but they only allow 2.43. The pick: Dallas plays with revenge here, as it's lost eight of the last ten in this series, including four of the last five in front of the home town crowd. This is the final home game before an Eastern road swing for Dallas, making tonight's game even more important. Toronto on the other hand can't help in getting caught looking ahead to a night off, followed by a "cream puff" at home vs. the Senators. I think Toronto's vastly over-priced in this one. 10* NON-CONF BLOWOUT GAME OF THE YEAR on Dallas Stars. |
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01-28-20 | Blues v. Flames -105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blues are off a 3-1 loss in Vancouver just last night and clearly they'll be "hungry" and "eager" to avoid the back-to-back losses, but Calgary plays with revenge on its home ice and it's well rested after the All Star break. Despite anything else that's going on on the ice in this one, these three situational factors are all clearly working heavily in favor of the home side tonight. The pick: Additionally note that Calgary is 4-0 in its last four vs. the Western Conference, while St. Louis is now 0-5 in its last five vs. clubs with winning records. This is a great price on Calgary considering all of the different favorable factors working in its favor listed above. In fact, I'll go so far as to say that this is the very definition of "great line value." 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Flames. |
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01-13-20 | Bruins v. Flyers +125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 125 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bruins have won three straight after beating the Isles in New York 3-2 in OT to open their road trip. I think this sets up a letdown spot for the B's though. Boston will be contending for the Cup for sure at the end and it comes in averaging 3.35 GPG and allowing 2.46. The Flyers got the better of the Capitals 3-2 to open their three-game stand, but they're out to bounce back after falling 1-0 to Tampa in their most recent outing. Philadelphis is 23-16--6 overall this year, but an outstanding 14-3-4 at home. The pick: Note as well that Boston is a devastatingly poor 4-6 (-4 units) this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent, while Philly is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in its last five after getting shutout at home in its previous contest. Great value on the much "hungrier" home side in this one. 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on the Philadelphia Flyers. |
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01-12-20 | Penguins v. Coyotes -110 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pens are 7-2-1 in their last ten, but after winning back to back road games, I think the visiting side has a letdown here. Conversely, the Coyotes are in full on bounce back mode. They're just 5-5 in their last ten and they enter off back to back losses. Pittsburgh has been playing great over the last month, but note that it's still ranked just 15th in the league in goals allowed per game when on the road. And note that Arizona is ranked seventh in the NHL in goals allowed per game when at home. The pick: Arizona is also 8-2 (+5.9 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game. I think the Pens finally have that road letdown vs. this now extremely focussed home side. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Arizona Coyotes. |
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01-11-20 | Canadiens -145 v. Senators | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have done poorly this year. But Montreal is set up nicely here to take this game vs. bottom feeders. The Habs are in fact 10-9-3 on the road this season, but they won't be lacking for motivation after going just 1-8-1 in their last ten. The Sens are 11-7-2 at home overall this season, but they're only 2-6-1 in their last ten overall. Ottawa also enters off a tough 3-2 road loss in Detroit just last night. Situationally as I stated above, this one does indeed set up well for the hungry Habs in my opinion. The pick: I believe the Sens come in with "heavy legs" after their close call in Detroit last night. Lay the price with confidence. 10* PRICE IS RIGHT on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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01-10-20 | Penguins v. Avalanche -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Avs. They've also lost two straight, so they definitely won't be taking anything for granted here. The Pens are 10-7-2 on the road this season and the Avs are 11-7-2 at home. Pittsburgh ranks fourth on the road offensively and 15th defensively. Colorado ranks second in the league offensively when at home and 28th defensively. Clearly on most nights that type of defensive performance isn't going to get the job done, but after back-to-back setbacks and with revenge on their minds, I believe the Avs risk life and limb tonight getting into shooting and passing lanes in an attempt to get off the schneid. The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-9 (-4.7 units) in its last 17 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Colorado is 10-3 (+7.6 units) this season after allowing four or more goals. I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive victory. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Colorado Avalanche. |
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01-09-20 | Oilers v. Canadiens -130 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal won't be lacking for motivation here after going just 2-7-1 in its last ten. The Oilers are 5-4-1 in their last ten. The Oilers average 2.83 GPG and it's defense has been shaky. The Habs are ranked 24th on the defensive end, but after two straight losses I believe they offer great value here to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. Overall the Habs average a respectable 3.24 GPG at home. The pick: Edmonton though has definitely struggled mightily in this spot for bettors all season, going a poor 9-15 (-7.7 units) vs. clubs with losing records and 2-4 (-2.3 units) after playing three straight road games. The Habs on the other hand are 9-6 (+3.5 units) this year in non-conference games. I think the "hungrier" team gets the job done tonight. Lay the reasonable price. 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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01-07-20 | Penguins +127 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-3 | Win | 127 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Pens offer great value to upset the Knights at home here. Pittsburgh comes in having lost two of its last three, so it won't be lacking for motivation here. Despite that the Pens still average the seventh most goals in the league this season. Las Vegas on the other is poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning four in a row. Good news for Pittsburgh tonight is that Matt Murray will start in net and he's 12-6-4 with a 2.92 GAA and it's won his last two starts. The Golden Knights counter with Marc Andre Fleury who is 18-8-3, but note that in his last two wins the Knights have allowed four goals in each. The pick: Note as well that Pittsburgh is 14-7 (+5.5 units) this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 9-4 (+5.2 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous outing, while Las Vegas is just 8-9 (-3.2 units) this season vs. clubs with winning records. 10* play on the Penguins. |
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12-29-19 | Islanders v. Wild -110 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Isles have done better than most expected they would this year, but I think their fast start is definitely over. The Isles come in having lost two straight and lack of offensive production has been the issue. The defense and goaltending carried the load in the early going, but now the team is starting to wear down. The Wild started the year terribly, but Minnesota has quietly started to turn things around with two straight wins and I look for it to carry over that momentum here. The pick: The Wild average 3.47 GPG at home and I think New York struggles to keep pace today on the road. Note as well that the Islanders are a poor 5-8 (-5.7 units) this season in non-conference games, while the Wild are 8-4 in their last 12 in the same position. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 10* BEST OF THE BEST is on the Minnesota Wild. |
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12-17-19 | Predators v. Islanders -137 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -137 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Predators come in off a 5-2 win over the Rangers last night and I think they'll have a hard time mustering up the same energy here vs. this stingy home side. New York has won three in a row and four of five, while last night's victory snapped a two-game slide for Nashville. The Isles only concede 2.32 GPG and I like them to take advantage of this content and now tired Predators side. Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne has lost two of his last three outings and in his last two trips to the next he's given up four goals in each. The pick: The Isles beat the Sabres 3-2 in OT in their last outing. Goaltender Semyon Varlamov is 11-3-2 with a 2.24 GAA. Notd as well that the Predators are just 2-7 in their last nine in the second game of a back-to-back after winning the first one by two goals or more, while New York is 6-1 (+5.3 units) this year when playing on two days rest. Considering the situation and these trends, I believe we're getting super value on the home side in this one. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Islanders. |
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12-14-19 | Red Wings +210 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 210 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The 13-17 Habs are a big favorite at home to the 7-24 Red Wings. In fact, too big in my estimation, swinging the value to the under-valued underdog. Clearly the Wings have struggled this year, but so to has Montreal. The Canadiens don't really have a clear advantage at any position either, with both teams sport decent goaltenders (Jonathan Bernier for the Wings and Carey Price for the Canadiens) and offensive talent (Dylan Larkin for Detroit and Shea Webber for Montreal.) The pick: With two nights off before an extended Western Canadian road swing, the potential to get caught "looking ahead" is also present for the home side. The Wings offer fantastic value to pull off the upset here vs. the over-priced Habs. 10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Detroit Red Wings. |
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12-13-19 | Golden Knights v. Stars -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: My NHL GAME OF THE YEAR was on the Blues last night and they eventually pulled away for a 4-2 win over the over-rated Golden Knights. At -120, that was a gift in my opinion, as St. Louis came into that contest having lost three straight. I think this is another great "situational" play here, as I think the "gassed" Knights get overwhelmed by the offensive minded home side. Dallas is 12-4-1 at home, led by one of the top defenses in the entire league. I have a hard time seeing the "flat footed" Knights mustering any offensive attack tonight. The pick: Note as well that Vegas is now a a poor 4-9 (-7.4 units) this season vs. teams with winning records, while Dallas is 7-1 (+5.9 units) when playing on two days rest. The Knights are getting too much respect here, as I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay it. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Stars. |
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12-12-19 | Golden Knights v. Blues -116 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I think at this price and considering the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, that the defending champs offer unreal value here. In fact, I feel so strongly about it, that this pick has now become my NHL game of the year! Vegas is 15-17 and the Blues are 18-13. Vegas lost 5-0 to the Rangers and then bounced back with a 5-1 win over the Blackhawks. Inconsistency from game-to-game has plagued the Knights and I believe they'll have their hands full vs. a Blues team which has dropped three straight. The pick: I'm primarily a situational handicapper and I think this one definitely sets up great for the hungry Blues. Also note that Las Vegas is already only 5-6 (-5.4 units) this season after scoring four or more goals in its previous contes and just 4-7 (-5.3 units) this year vs. clubs with winning records, while St. Louis is 10-6 in its last 16 after three or more straight losses, including 2-1 this year. I like Jordan Binnington to step up in this big game and for St. Louis to skate away with a comfortable victory once it's all said and done. 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Blues. |
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12-09-19 | Islanders v. Lightning -166 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -166 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa's won two of three and the Isles have dropped two of three. I think the home side is worth the price of admission here as I expect a decisive victory from start to finish. Most recently the Isles fell 3-1 at Dallas on Saturday. Overall the Isles average 2.82 GPG and they concede 2.43. The pick: The Lightning destroyed the Wild 7-1 on Saturday and I look for the surging home side to carry that momentum over here. Overall the Bolts lead the league in scoring with 3.74 GPG on average, while allowing 3.22. The Isles are struggling on the road and I think that trend continues here vs. this red hot home side. Lay the price with confidence. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Tampa Bay Lightning. |
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12-08-19 | Sabres v. Oilers -160 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I could break down the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams and carefully look at every stat and each individual player and how he'll impact the play on the ice, but none of those factors are what I'm basing this pick on whatsoever. Buffalo is 3-5-2 in its last ten games and after falling 6-5 to the Canucks in OT in Vancouver just last night, I expect a predictable letdown here. The pick: Buffalo allows 3.33 GPG on the road and the Oilers average 3.36 GPG at home. The Sabres also already a terrible 2-5 (-3.2 units) this season when playing on back-to-back days, while Edmonton is a fantastic 9-3 (+6.2 units) in its last 12 non-conference contests. 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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12-05-19 | Avalanche v. Canadiens -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I played on the Habs in their last game, as they finally broke the slide of eight straight losses with a win over the Islanders, who had played a game the night before. Whoever Montreal starts in net tonight, and whoever Colorado starts in net, I think the home side keeps the foot on the gas here after its recent huge losing run and I expect it to once again take advantage of a team that played (and won 3-1 in Toronto), just last night. This is a great situational play and the price is great too considering. The pick: Despite having gone through the losing streak, the Habs are still tied with Toronto in points. Now Montreal has a big opportunity to seperate itself (note that the Habs are a solid 7-5/+2.3 units this season vs. clubs with winning records.) For all the reasons listed above, play on the Canadiens. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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12-03-19 | Islanders v. Canadiens -111 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly on paper the Islanders are the better team. But after eight straight losses, I believe the Canadiens risk life and limb to secure a victory here. Montreal held a 1-0 lead for most of the game vs. the Bruins in Boston last time out, but it eventually fell apart down the stretch and lost 3-1. A week previous in Montreal they lost 8-1 to the Bruins. Over their last four games alone they've allowed almost 20 goals. The entire city of Montreal has to be on suicide watch right now. The pick: New York though comes in off a relatively simple 4-1 win in Detroit just last night and I do believe it'll suffer a letdown here finally in this difficult road venue. I'm a "situational" handicapper "at heart" and everything points to a blowout here in my opinion. Lay the short price and look for the Habs to finally "get off the schneid" on Tuesday. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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11-25-19 | Blues +118 v. Predators | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blues are 14-5-5 overall and 7-3-1 on the road. They come in off a 4-2 loss at home to these very Predators. Nashville though had lost six in a row previous to that victory, so to say that it was "desperate" would be an understatement. Now back home after its disastrous stretch and fresh off a victory which "got the money off their backs," I think the Predators do indeed suffer a predictable letdown here. St. Louis will be using the recent loss as motivation here and I expect it deliver. Situationally it sets up great for the visitors. The pick: But note as well that Nashville is 0-6 in its last six as the favorite, while St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine in revenging an in season loss of two goals or more vs. an opponent. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Blues. |
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11-16-19 | Senators v. Sabres -180 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I play plenty of underdogs, totals and favorites. Sometimes I feel that laying a larger price is warranted and this is one of those occassions. Ottawa has been playing a lot better over the last couple of weeks, but it enters off a hard-fought 2-1 win at home over Philadelphia just last night. The pick: Buffalo looked like the team to beat in the early going this season, but the Sabres come in desperate, as they've lost six in a row. If not now, when for Buffalo? Note that the Sabres are 22-8 in their last 30 games as a favorite in the -151 to -200 range, while Ottawa is a poor 19-42 in its last 61 as an underdog. The situation warrants a play of this size, so lay the price with confidence. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Buffalo Sabres. |
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11-14-19 | Hurricanes v. Sabres +114 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hurricans broke a four-game slide to the Senators at home last time out, but I think they'll return to mediocrity here vs. this hungry home side. And that's because the once blazing Sabres enter having lost five straight. This is the first time these teams have played this season, but Buffalo plays with triple revenge here as well after Carolina took all three meetings last year. The pick: Carolina averages 3.33 GPG, while Buffalo allows 2.76. The Sabres average 2.88 GPG, while the Hurricanes allow 2.89. Note though that the Hurricanes are already a poor 1-3 (-4.2 units) this year after a win by two goals or more, while Buffalo is already 4-1 (+3.1 units) this season after allowing four goals or more. I like the more desperate home side to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes today and I expect that intensity to pay dividends for us at the window once it's all said and done. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Buffalo Sabres. |
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11-12-19 | Predators -104 v. Canucks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators are 9-8 and the Canucks are 9-9. Both teams are struggling. The Predators have lost four of their last five and they're desperate to get off the schneid. Fortunately they now face a Canucks team which has lost four in a row. The pick: I'll point out though that the Predators are 4-1 (+2.7 units) already this year when playing with two days rest. They're also 19-12 (+3.1 units) in their last 31 after scoring one or less goals in their last contest, while the Canucks are only 33-55 (-5.7 units) in their last 88 vs. clubs with winning records, including only 2-3 this season. I think Vancouver's slide continues and I look for the desperate but rested Predators to take advantage. 10* COAST-TO-COAST SUPER ROAST on the Nashville Predators. |
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11-08-19 | Devils v. Oilers -145 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Devils lost 5-2 in Calgary just last night and I expect them to have a hell of a time vs. the Oilers team this evening, as they come in having lost two in a row. Edmonton scored a 4-3 OT win in New Jersey earlier in the season, but I expect a more decisive effort here as it faces these now weary Devils. The pick: New Jersey averages 2.85 GPG, but the Oilers only allow 2.65. Edmonton on the other hand averages 2.76 GPG, while New Jersey concedes 3.69. Additionally note that after last night's setback the Devils are now an atrocious 14-37 in their last 51 on the road, while Oilers are still 8-2 in their last ten as a home favorite. Look for Edmonton to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the price with confidence. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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11-07-19 | Wild v. Sharks -145 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are obviously not too thrilled with where they are right now. Minnesota is 5-10 and the Sharks are 5-11. The Wild come in off a rare road win over the Ducks and I think a predictable return to mediocrity is imminent vs. this hungry home side. The Sharks had lost five in a row before a win over the Hawks last time out, so clearly they're not going to be taking anything for granted. And if recent history is any precedence, then there's no question that San Jose has to be loving it chances here, as it would sweep all three contests a year ago. The pick: Note that San Jose is 8-3 in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while Minnesota is a poor 3-18 in its last 21 following a victory. I think this overall situation highly favors the home side and it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the San Jose Sharks. |
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11-06-19 | Blues v. Oilers -135 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 10-6. The Blues come in off a win in Vancouver just last night and I expect them to have a predictable letdown here vs. the an Oilers team which comes in off an OT loss to the Coyotes, after beating the Penguins in OT on the road. The pick: The Blues average 3.43 GPG, but the Oilers only allow 2.50. The Oilers are also 5-1 in their last six vs. teams with winning records and 4-1 in their last five as a home favorite, while St. Louis is just 2-10 in its last 12 vs. clubs with winning records. Look for the rested home side to throw everything it has at the defending champs. Lay the price. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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11-05-19 | Blackhawks v. Sharks -160 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago comes to the Shark Tank ranked as the worst offense in the Western Conference. The Blackhawks beat the Ducks 3-2 in Anaheim, but I think they'll struggle in this difficult road venue. The pick: San Jose is 4-10-1 and it won't be taking anything for granted here after its terrible start to the campaign. San Jose though is No. 1 on the penalty kill still, while ranked seventh on the power play. Additionally note that the Sharks are 7-3 in their last ten at home vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Hawks are still just 1-6 in their last seven as a road dog. I like the desperate home side to dominate from start to finish. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Jose Sharks. |
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11-04-19 | Coyotes v. Oilers -118 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Coyotes caught the Avs in the second game of a back-to-back in their last matchup and they left Denver with a 3-0 victory. The Oilers though ahve won two straight, most recently a 2-1 OT victory over the Pens. The pick: Arizona though has struggled with offensive consistency this season, especially on the road. Look for Edmonton to improve upon its 4-1 record as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range and for the Coyotes to fall to 0-5 in their last five after allowing two goals or less in their previous outing. A great price on a hot home side, lay it. 10* play on the Edmonton Oilers. |
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11-01-19 | Canucks v. Ducks -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canucks have been better than advertised to open the season, but I think they finally take a step back here after their 5-3 win in LA last time out. The Ducks have gotten out to a winning start as well this year and I believe they build off their recent 7-4 win over the Jets. The pick: The Canucks have the better numbers across the board over their counterparts today (offensive, defensive, goaltending, special teams), but not by much. And with a game in San Jose tomorrow night, I do think that Vancouver gets caught "looking ahead." Additionally note that the Canucks are still only 22-36 (-9.4 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous game, while the Ducks are 27-21 (+4.2 units) in their last 48 in the same position. All things considered, I think this is a great price on the hungry home side. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Anaheim Ducks. |
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10-29-19 | Flyers v. Penguins -147 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pens ended a three-game losing slide with a 3-0 win in Dallas and I think they carry that momentum over here and come in focussed on the task at hand. The Flyers on the other hand look primed for a letdown here after they had their three-game win skein snapped by the Isles in their latest outing. Philly goaltender Carter Hart is 2-3-1 with a 3.32 GAA after allowing five goals on 14 shots in that one. The pick: Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray posted a shutout vs. the Stars in his last outing and he's 6-3-0 with a 2.33 GAA so far. Additionally note that Pittsubrgh is 4-1 in its last five following a victory, while Philadelphia is a terrible 1-8 in its last nine on the road. The Pens have lost three of the last four in this series, but I expect that trend to tonight. Lay the reasonable mid sized price. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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10-27-19 | Kings v. Blackhawks -137 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: LA has now lost back-to-back games to the Blues and then 5-1 in Minnesota just last night. The Hawks are coming off a 4-1 home loss to the Flyers despite outshooting them 24-23. The pick: The Kings are the worst defensive team in the league and they're coming off a loss just last night. The Hawks have been poor offensively, but note that they're 6-2 in their last eight home games following a home loss by three or more goals. The situation and the trends both point to the home side as the correct call (and the price is excellent too in my opinion.) 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Chicago Blackhawks. |
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10-26-19 | Kings v. Wild -128 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are off to poor starts and each comes in off a loss. The Wild lost 4-0 to Nashville and LA fell 5-2 to St. Louis. Minnesota is only averaging 2.10 GPG, but the Kings are allowing 3.90 GPG. The Kings' goaltending has been terrible, so the advantage goes to Minnesota's Alex Stalock, who has a 2.22 GAA. The pick: Note as well that Minnesota is a sharp 6-1 in its last seven at home in this series, while the Kings are a poor 1-5 in their last six as underdogs in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, I think this is a great price on the home side. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Minnesota Wild. |
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10-24-19 | Coyotes v. Islanders -114 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams enter at 5-3, but I think the Coyotes take a step back on Long Island, after getting the better of the Rangers in The Big Apple. Arizona goalie Darcy Kuemper is 4-2-0 with a 1.68 GAA this year, but note that he's a sub-par 1-3 with 3.13 GAA lifetime vs. the Isles. So far Arizona is averaging 3.00 GPG and conceding only 1.88. The pick: New York netminder Thomas Greiss is 3-1 with a 2.20 GAA this season and he's 3-3-1 with a 2.11 GAA lifetime vs. the 'Yotes. So far the Isles are averaging and allowing 2.50 GPG this year. But winning on the road is difficult in the NHL and I think Arizona is definitely primed for a letdown here vs. this surging home side. The Isles have looked better offensively after a very poor start, so their early numbers on that end of the ice are skewed. The home side has won eight of the last nine in this series, so expect that strong trend to continue here. 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Islanders. |
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10-22-19 | Canucks v. Red Wings +105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Vancouver is 5-3 and Detroit is 3-5. Vancouver has already beaten the Wings 5-1 at home, but now Detroit will look to exact some revenge in its own building vs. a now road weary and contented Canucks team. Vancouver is getting great defensive play and goaltending, both from Jacob Markstrom and Thatcher Demko, but after beating the Rangers in New York and with this being the final contest on a long-trip, I believe this does indeed set up as a "letdown/look-ahead" spot for the over-achieving visitors. The pick: Detroit comes in having lost four straight, making this an early "do or die" game for the home side. The Wings' netminders have hit or miss, but note that the Canucks are just 28-42 (-12.5 units) in their last 70 vs. clubs with losing records, while Detroit is 6-2 in its last eight after playing three straight on the road. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Detroit Red Wings. |
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10-21-19 | Avalanche v. Blues -115 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the 7-1 Avs are going to have a letdown here. St. Louis on the other hand has lost four straight and it'll be risking life and limb here to secure a victory today. The Avs come off a 6-2 beatdown of the Lightning and I think they're going to suffer a classic letdown here. Philipp Grubauer has been on fie for the Avs, but note that he's 0-1-2 with a 3.24 GAA vs. the Blues lifetime. The pick: The Blues are clearly suffering a Stanley Cup hangover, as teams are relentless on the defending champs. Most recently St Louis fell 5-2 to the Habs. Note though that the Avs are still just 36-40 (-3.4 units) in their last 76 after scoring four or more goals in their previous contest, while the Blues are 30-20 in their last 50 after a loss by two goals or more in their previous outing. I like the depserate home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the St. Louis Blues. |
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10-20-19 | Canucks v. Rangers -126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -126 | 23 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canucks fell 2-0 in New Jersey and I think they'll now struggle here in the second game of the back-to-back vs. a Rangers team which enters off a 5-2 loss to the Devils on Thursday. Alexsandar Georgievj has the advantage in net over Canucks' netminder Jacob Markstrom (2-2-0, 2.23 GAA). Georgievj (1-1-0, 2.56) most recently allowed four goals vs. the Devils, but he's hungry to be the No. 1 goaltender in the Big Apple. The pick: The Rangers have lost three in a row and they're rested. Vancouver had been on a big run, but it finally had a letdown last night and now it has to try and muster up the energy for an early morning contest less than 24 hours later. This one sets up beautifully for the home side and the price is right too. 10* BODY-CHECK on the New York Rangers |
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10-19-19 | Panthers v. Predators -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Flordia had three whole nights off and then fell to Colorado 5-4 last night. The Panthers had a 3-1 lead at one point and now I think they falter again here vs. the rested Predators. Nashville has had a night off after a 5-2 loss at Arizona, which concluded a 1-2 road trip. This is the opener of three straight at home vs. difficult teams and I believe the Predators come in focussed on the task at hand (Ducks and Wild up next, followed by a road game at Tampa Bay.) The pick: Florida is a poor 28-32 (-5.4 units) in its last 60 non-conference games, while Nashville is 26-15 (+5.9 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. A great situational play and a great price considering the circumstances. Lay it. 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Nashville Predators. |
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10-17-19 | Rangers v. Devils -120 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
The setup: The Rangers are 2-1 and the Devils are 0-6. Clearly the home side has issues, but I believe New Jersey risks life and limb to try and get off the schneid tonight. Alexandar Georgiev is expected to be between the pipes for the Rangres, while Cory Schneider will get the nod for New Jersey. New York has been off since a 4-1 home loss to Edmonton on Saturday and I think that rest is going to lead to rust here vs. this determined/desperate home side. The pick: Note that New York has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 5-10 (-2.8 units) when playing with three or more days rest. I don't think that the Devils are as terrible as their win/loss record would indicate. I'm banking on the more desperate team delivering the goods. 10* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the New Jersey Devils. |
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10-16-19 | Hurricanes v. Sharks -116 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 33 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Carolina is 6-1-0 this year after its 2-0 win in LA just last night. The Hurricanes face a difficult task though in my opinion vs. the well rested Sharks team that hasn't played since a 3-1 win over the Flames at home on Sunday. The Hurricanes also get caught looking ahead to two more tough road contests at Anaheim and Columbus up next. The pick: As mentioned off the top the Sharks have had a couple nights off and then they enjoy two more nights off after this one before a home game vs. the Sabres. This one sets up beautifully for the rested home side, which started the year injured and without a couple of key players (Evander Kane), but who have since returned. This is the very definition of "great line value" in my opinion. 10* play on the San Jose Sharks. |
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10-15-19 | Lightning v. Canadiens +125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lightning are 2-2-1 this season, while the Habs are 2-1-2. Andre Vasilevskiy is the starter in net for TB, while Carey Price gets the nod for the home side. The Bolts have beaten up on the Eastern Conference at a prodigious rate over the last three years, but now teams can smell the blood in the water. The Lightning come to town looking very beatable, most recently falling 4-2 on the road in Ottawa, its third setback in their last four games. The pick: Montreal broke a two-game slide with a resounding 6-3 win over the defending champion Blues. The Habs are well rested and they have the Wild coming to town on Thursday night. Montreal has struggled with poor starts in each of the past two seasons, but it comes in healthy to this one and I expect it to pour it on here as it looks to kick this floundering Lighting team while its down. 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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10-13-19 | Flames v. Sharks -107 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary was detroyed 6-2 in Vegas just last night and I think it'll have its hands full with this rested and focussed home side. The Sharks are just 1-4, but they finally punched their first win of the season in a victory over the Hawks in their last matchup. The pick: San Jose is now back home and it's rested and ready to make a statement. Note that key players Evander Kane and Patrick Marleau weren't even playing during its 0-3 start to the season. But they're now both back on the ice tonight. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up great for San Jose as it looks to bounce back from its slow start and take advantage of this road weary Flames side. All things considered, I call this the very definition of great line value. 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the San Jose Sharks. |
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10-11-19 | Ducks v. Blue Jackets -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jackets got back on track with a win over a dangerous Buffalo team, which snapped a two-game slide last time out and I believe they're going to make the most of this one, before they have to hit the road themselves. Anaheim had a terrible season last year (injuries was the main reason), so establishing a quick start this season was paramount for it. The Ducks started off 3-0, but the wheels finally came off the bus in a 2-1 setback on Pittsburgh just last night. WIth a couple nights off after this before finally returning home to The Pond, I do definitely feel that this sets up as a massive trap/letdown for the visiting side. The pick: CBJ won't be "looking past" this opportunity, as it does indeed hit the road for a difficult trip up next. Additionally note that the Ducks are just 10-13 in their last 23 when playing on back-to-back days, while the Blue Jackets are 8-4 in their last 12 when playing with three days rest. Overwhelming situational factors and a favorable line make Columbus the correct call here. 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Columbus Blue Jackets. |
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10-10-19 | Ducks v. Penguins -140 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Anaheim was hampered by injury last year and it suffered through a terrible campaign. The Ducks have gotten out to a quick start this season though with 3-0 record thus far. The Penguins are just 1-2 and this is the final game of their home stand. From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully for the Pens. The Ducks come in complacent, the home side enters focussed. The pick: Additionally take into account Anaheim's wins, which have come over the Coyotes, Sharks and Red Wings. Yes Pittsburgh is dealing with some early injury issues (Malkin), but that's just part of the game. The season is young and Sid The Kid and Matt Murray are still fresh. I think the home side makes adjustments and then makes the most of this favorable home spot. Lay the price. 10* BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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10-09-19 | Kings v. Canucks -145 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Kings are now 1-1 after defeating the Flames 4-3 just last night in Calgary. Vancouver though is 0-2 and I believe the home side is going to risk life and limb today as it looks to get off the schneid and to record a victory here in front of the home town crowd. LA's Jon Quick is 0-1 with a 6.19 GAA The pick: Vancouver was blanked 3-0 by the Flames last time out, despite directing 33 pucks on the net. Canucks' netminder Jacob Markstrom looked good too in defeat, allowing two goals in 29 shots. Note as well that the Canucks are 7-2 in their last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400, while the Kings are just 2-6 in their last eight road games when playing the second game of a back to back and in which they scored four or more goals in a victory in the first. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price. 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Vancouver Canucks. |
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10-08-19 | Jets v. Penguins -140 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both non-conference opponents. The Jets are just 1-2, but I think the visitors are going to get caught "looking ahead" to their upcoming home and first home stretch of the season. The Jets looked poor in the 4-1 loss to the Islanders and I have a hard time seeing the team mustering much of an offensive attack tonight either. The visitors are expected to start Connor Hellebuyck, who is 0-1 with a 5.07 GAA after a 6-4 loss to the Rangers in regulation. The pick: The Pens looked flat in their opener, but great in their second game vs. the Blue Jackets, destroying them 7-2. Pittsburgh goalie Matt Murray stopped 28 of 30 shots and he's now 1-1 with a 2.55 GAA. Note that the Pens are a sharp 116-54 in their last 170 as a home favorite, while the Jets are a poor 2-8 in their last ten vs. the Eastern Conference. I'm expecting a decisive lop-sided destruction, so lay the price. 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Pittsburgh Penguins. |
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10-07-19 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets -109 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 2-0 and Columbus is 0-2. Despite losing many key players over the off-season and not being the same team as they were last year, I believe the Blue Jackets buckle down here and find a way to get the job done vs. the over-achieving Sabres. Carter Hutton has looked great early for Buffalo, but I believe he'll have his hands full here vs. the focused Columbus side.
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10-06-19 | Jets v. Islanders -125 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jets lost their opener 6-4 to the Rangers, and then needed a shootout to beat the Devils 5-4. The Jets are dealing with a rash of injuries and with transition to their core line-up after off-season moves. The Islanders are also dealing with new faces, but after dropping their home opener to the Capitals, I expect the home side to buckle down here and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The pick: Jets’ goaltender Connor Hellebuyck allowed five goals in the loss to the Rangers. New York will turn to Thomas Greiss in this one, last year he was 23-14-2 with a 2.28 GAA. Note that the Ises are 4-1 in their last five vs. the Western Conference, while the Jets are just 2-6 in their last eight vs. the East. Greiss is in a fight for the No. 1 spot in net and I believe he’ll be the difference maker for the home side tonight. Lay the very reasonable price. 10* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the New York Islanders. |
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10-05-19 | Stars v. Blues -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams fell in their respective season openers, with the Stars falling at home to the Bruins, while the Blues lost at home to the Capitals. Last year the Stars had the 28th offense in the NHL, averaging only 2.55 GPG, and after falling 2-1 in their opener, it definitely appears as if the offense is still “stuck in neutral.” Dallas goaltender Ben Bishop allowed two goals on 20 shots in the Stars’ opening night loss. The pick: The Blues finished 15th in the NHL last year on offense with 2.98 GPG. St. Louis actually had a 2-0 lead at one point over Washington, before collapsing and falling 3-2. Goaltender Jordan Binnington was solid in the setback, making 31 saves on 34 attempts. Additionally note that the Blues are 4-1 in their last five after scoring two goals or less in their previous game, while Dallas is 0-4 in its last four after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Lay the price. 10* EXPRESS on the St. Louis Blues. |
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10-03-19 | Canadiens +131 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Carolina made it all the way to the Conference Finals somehow last year, but then got swept by the Bruins. Montreal finished fourth in the Atlantic and it’ll be looking to get out to a much better start in 2019/20, after getting in an early hole in each of the last two years. The Hurricanes look poised for a massive letdown in my opinion, while the Canadiens look primed to deliver value in the early going. Five of Montreal’s top six scorers return. Last year Habs’ net minder Carey Price was 1-1-1 vs. the Hurricanes, allowing eight goals on 93 shots. The pick: Carolina goaltender Petr Mrazek faced Montreal once last year and he gave up five goals on 39 shots. I believe the stage is set for the slight upset on Opening Night. Play on the visitors. 10* play on the Montreal Canadiens. |
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06-09-19 | Bruins +105 v. Blues | Top | 5-1 | Win | 105 | 37 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: There’s no question that this has been a difficult series to predict. Boston feels it got robbed in Game 5, so clearly the visitors won’t be lacking for motivation here as they try to stave off elimination and push the Stanley Cup Final to a decisive Game 7. Boston doesn’t lack the talent or the experience in this position. St. Louis has plenty of talent clearly, but it’s in unchartered territory and I think that matters here. Honestly, it wouldn’t be hard to write a convincing argument for either team to win, but I think that Boston’s experience wins the day in the end. The pick: Note as well that the Bruins are already 4-0 (+4.2 units) this year when trailing in a playoff series, while the Blues are just 3-4 (-2.4 units) when leading in a playoff series. I think the writing is on the wall and an epic Game 7 is in the cards. Boston Bruins 10* play |
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06-01-19 | Bruins +106 v. Blues | Top | 7-2 | Win | 106 | 48 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston dominated Game 1, but then came out flat in Game 2. The Blues’ definitely fell apart in Game 1, but they rebounded large in Game 2. These are two evenly matched clubs, but I think the Bruins’ superior offense will pull through for them in Game 3. The Bruins lost Game 2 in OT, so if the bounces had gone their way, they could in fact already be up 2-0 here. The Blues are “lucky” in my estimation. The pick: Boston’s power-play continues to produce, scoring for a sixth straight game. Note that the Blues’ received bad news after Game 2 when Oskar Sundqvist was suspended for one game for an illegal hit to Matt Grzelcyk. Boston is 15-7 (+4.8 units) this year when playing with two days rest. Great value on the visitors in Game 3. Boston Bruins 10* play |
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05-27-19 | Blues v. Bruins -147 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 56 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: If you’re watching and wagering on this contest, then the story lines and strengths/weaknesses of each side is well known to this point. St. Louis has been one of the hottest teams in the second half of the season, riding the play of red hot rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington. The Bruins are loaded with talent and experience and they got “hot” at the right time at the end of the season. Boston has an equally adept net minder in Tuukka Rask. These teams are in fact very evenly matched, but I think that the home ice advantage can’t be overlooked in Game 1. The pick: St. Louis was 28-22 on the road, averaging 2.84 goals and allowing 2.40 in those contests. Boston is 35-15 at home, averaging 3.42 goals and allowing 2.40 in those contests. I expect the Bruins to ride the wave of emotion and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Boston Bruins 10* play |
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05-19-19 | Blues v. Sharks -125 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sharks were average on the road this year, but great at home. St. Louis had its hands full in Game 4 though, but it would hold on for a 2-1 win in front of the home town crowd. Note that St. Louis is 27-22 on the road, averaging 2.80 goals and conceding 2.45 in those contest. The Sharks are 32-19 at home though. averaging 3.67 goals and allowing 2.86 in those games. I do indeed think that “home ice” will be the difference for the Sharks this evening. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven playoff games as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range, while St. Louis is still only 7-16 in its last 23 playoff games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. All things considered, a great price in my opinion. San Jose Sharks 10* play |
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05-13-19 | Blues v. Sharks -130 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose destroyed St. Louis 6-3 in Game 1 and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in Game 2 as well. The Sharks average 3.70 GPG at home and rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington, who to this point has pretty much carried the Blues to this point, looked very average in the loss. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Binnington, but there’s no question that he’s in unchartered territory at the moment. Sharks’ goaltender Martin Jones looked decent though, stopping 28 of 31 shots to improve to 9-5 in the playoffs. San Jose is 32-18 at home so far this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Sharks are 53-38 (+4.7 units) the last two years after a victory by two goals or more. I think San Jose’s experience and home ice advantage proves to be too much for St. Louis again in Game 2. Lay the price. San Jose Sharks 10* play |
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05-09-19 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -147 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hurricanes went 22-10 after the All Star break. After falling behind Washington 2-0, Carolina has gone 8-1 since. Overall Carolina has scored 22 goals over its last six games. Petr Mrazek gets the start in net for the visitors and he’s 4-3 with a 3.09 GAA lifetime vs. Boston. Note though that Carolina is still only 25-22 on the road this year, averaging 2.74 goals and allowing 2.83 in those games. Boston posted 11 goals over its final three games vs. the Blue Jackets and it’s allowed an average of just 1.89 goals over its last nine games. Tuukka Rask is 9-7 with a 2.27 GAA lifetime vs. Carolina. Boston is 33-15 on home ice this year, averaging 3.33 goals and conceding 2.42. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still only 16-38 in its last 54 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 27-9 in its last 36 when playing on two days rest. A great price all things considered. Boston Bruins 10* play |
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05-08-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -135 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a great series and if you’re watching and wagering on this contest, then the story lines are likely very well known. The Stars and Blues played a Game 7 in St. Louis last night and after two OT’s, “home ice” proved to be the difference for St. Louis in my estimation. Colorado managed a 4-3 OT win at home on Monday night in Game 6, but I think the Avs will run out of steam in this difficult road venue. Note that the Sharks are 5-2 at home in the playoffs. The pick: Additionally note that Colorado is still only 28-71 in its last 99 as a road dog, while the Sharks are 7-2 in their last nine home games following at OT loss in which they allowed four or more goals in. All things considered, a great price on the home side. 10* SAN JOSE SHARKS |
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05-07-19 | Stars v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas is banged up. Including to veteran goaltender Ben Bishop. The Blues finally broke out of their offensive doldrums in Game 6 and I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that they can’t carry that momentum over here in front of the home town crowd. St. Louis has been much better at home than on the road and considering the circumstances, I think the line value in this one is tremendous. In fact, I’d say that this is the very definition of “great line value.” The pick: With Stars’ net minder Bishop indeed dealing with a minor injury, the scales definitely tip in favor of the Blues’ Jordan Binnington. Look for “home ice” to be the difference in this one and lay the price with confidence. STL Blues 10* play |
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05-04-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -128 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This has been a back and forth series. Colorado managed a 3-0 win in Game 4, but I think that San Jose offers great value to bounce back at home in this important Game 5. San Jose still has the home ice advantage over this three-game series and I expect it to make the most of it. Colorado’s weakness this year has been its play on the road and I think it’ll predictably struggle here. The goaltenders are a wash, but home ice and a few lop-sided trends swing the scales clearly in favor of the Sharks in my opinion. The pick: As note that the Avs are still just 3-11 in their last 14 as road dogs in the +110 to +150 range, while San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven as a favorite in the -110 to -150 range. For all the reasons listed above, lay the short price. San Jose Sharks 10* play |
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04-28-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m actually surprised that the Sharks aren’t a bigger favorite here. San Jose took all four regular season meetings with the Avs and they had little trouble pulling away for a 5-2 win in Game 1. I’m expecting a similar final beatdown here as well. The Avs achilles heel all year has been their play on the road where they’re just 19-26, averaging 3.11 goals and allowing 3.13. San Jose on the other hand is 29-17 at home, averaging 3.72 goals and allowing 2.87. The pick: Additionally note that Colorado is still only 24-50 in its last 74 as a road underdog in the +110 to +150 range, while San Jose is 6-1 in its last seven vs. teams with losing road records. Also note that the favorite if 40-16 the last 56 in this series. I’m banking on these trends continuing. Lay the reasonable price. San Jose Sharks 10* play |
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04-26-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -140 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 52 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado’s been off for over a week after steam-rolling the Flames in five games. The Avs’ momentum is lost, while San Jose comes in off a dramatic come from behind seven game series win over the Golden Knights. For the most part these teams are evenly matched, but the Avs DO NOT match up well with the Sharks at all. San Jose took all three regular season games between the clubs, posting 14 goals, including 11 at even strength. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Jose is 5-1 in its last six as a favorite between -110 and -150, while Colorado is just 2-11 in its last 13 as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. Home ice and momentum make the home side the correct move here. San Jose Sharks 10* play |
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04-24-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 5 saw the Capitals destroy the Hurricanes 6-0 in Washington. Carolina then posted the 4-2 win at home in Game 6, continuing the trend of having the home side win every game in this series to this point. So what’s going to change here? Carolina’s achilles heel has been its play on the road this year and it’s had major difficulties in the nation’s capital over the last few seasons. The defending champs have to be feeling confident in this spot. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is still only 14-38 in its last 52 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Washington is 35-17 in its last 52 following a loss of three or more goals. Carolina has outscored Washington 12-3 at home, but its been outscored 14-5 in three games so far in Washington. Lay the price. Washington Capitals 10* play |
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04-23-19 | Maple Leafs +122 v. Bruins | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: With the Bruins sitting as a -140 home favorite in Game 7 of the first round vs. the Leafs, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched. And they are. I could easily write a convincing argument for either of these teams to come out on top, but I think that the value lies with the hungry visiting underdog. Toronto lost 4-2 at home in Game 6, but it’s taken two of three in Boston already this season. The Leafs have a chance to revenge last years playoff loss and I expect them to make the most of it. Keep your eyes on Toronto’s Auston Mathews, who has scored in four straight games. The goaltenders (Frederik Anderson for the Leafs and Tuukka Rask for the Bruins) are a “wash” in my opinion. The pick: Toronto though is 21-10 (+5.6 units) this year after allowing four goals or more, while Boston is 1-4 (-4.8 units) in its last five when tied in a playoff series. I think many will be on the Bruins, but I’m going the other way and backing the “hungrier” team. Toronto Maple Leafs 10* play |
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04-20-19 | Hurricanes v. Capitals -133 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: So far home ice has meant everything in this series. The Capitals easily took both Games 1 and 2 at home, before the Hurricanes returned the favor on their home ice. Both teams followed a same regular season pattern in that they started slowly and then came on like “gang busters” to end the regular season. It wouldn’t be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these teams to win this game, but as stated off the top, so far “home ice” has been a big difference maker in this series and I see no reason at all for that pattern to snap here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is just 3-8 in its last 11 after back-to-back home victories, while Washington is 35-13 (+19.7 units) in its last 48 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, lay this reasonable price. Washignton Capitals 10* play |
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04-19-19 | Avalanche v. Flames -170 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -170 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Do or die for the No. 1 seed. Colorado leads 3-1 and if Calgary doesn’t find a way to win this one, it’ll become the second top seed in the Western Conference in three years to be ousted in the first round of the playoffs. Philipp Grubauer managed a Game 2 win for the Avs in Calgary, but overall he’s just 1-2-0 North of the border. “We’re not done yet,” Flames’ captain Mark Giordano to the Calgary Sun. “We have a big home game coming up and then get it back here.” The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is still just 18-27 (-6.5 units) vs. teams with winning records, while Calgary is 23-15 (+4.9 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. With the home town crowd behind them, I expect the Flames to step up and produce their best effort of this series. Look for the Avs to pack up their tents early as they head home for Game 6. Calgary Flames 10* play |
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04-18-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -118 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: A great price for a desperate home team. It’s “do or die” for the disappointing Sharks, who have squandered home ice advantage and likely this series. However, I do indeed believe that San Jose will dig deep here and find a way to send this one back to Las Vegas for another game. The pick: Also note that Vegas is just 1-5 in its last six on the road still. San Jose was knocked out of the playoffs by the Knights last year and I expect it to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight to get back into this series. No need to over think this one. Great value on the hungry Sharks. San Jose Sharks 10* play |
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04-17-19 | Flames -101 v. Avalanche | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Flames are going to bounce back here with a solid win on the road and tie this series up at two. Flames’ goaltender Mike Smith stopped 50 of 56 shots in the Game 3 setback. Calgary only mustered 29 of its own, but Smith is a difference maker here in my opinion. The veteran has a 2.87 GAA through the first three games, while Avs’ net minder Philipp Grubauer has a 2.24 GAA over his last two games. The pick: Calgary dominated the Pacific and its strength was its play on the road. After its big offensive outburst in Game 3, I expect the Avs’ to come back down to Earth here. Additionally note that Calgary is 16-7 (+8.9 units) this season after allowing four goals or more, while Colorado is just 11-20 (-12.2 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. Calgary Flames 10* play |
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04-14-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -139 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose took Game 1, but the Knights bounced back and earned the coveted “split” at the Shark Tank in Game 2. Now back home, few teams enjoy a bigger “home ice advantage” than the Golden Knights and I look for them to indeed take advantage here. San Jose went just 3-9 down the stretch of the regular season and it’s now just 4-10 in its last 14. Sharks’ goalie Martin Jones was 14-12 with a 3.14 GAA on the road. Overall San Jose was 21-20 on the road this season, averaging 3.44 goals and allowing 3.44 in those contests. Knights’ net minder Marc Andre Fleury is 18-15 with a 2.40 GAA at home. Overall Vegas was 24-17 at home, averaging 3.20 goals and allowing 2.41 in those contests. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Vegas is 26-8 in its last 34 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, while the Sharks are only 2-5 in their last seven in Las Vegas. Lay the reasonable price. VEGAS Golden Knights 10* play |