Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-21 | Borussia Dortmund -174 v. SC Freiburg | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -174 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
8* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): Borussia Dortmund is obviously one of the favorites to win the Bundesliga this season. They finished third last season with 64 points and were a lot closer to champion Bayern Munich than 14-point gap suggests. But their hopes of unseating the nine-time champs in 2021/22 suffered a bit of a blow Tuesday when they fell 3-1 to Bayern in the DFL-Supercup Final. Now it’s back to the Bundesliga for a date at Freiburg, who hasn’t been on the pitch since opening its season with a 0-0 draw against Arminia Bielefeld. Dortmund opened its Bundesliga campaign with a very impressive 5-2 thrashing of Eintracht Frankfurt on matchday one. So they shouldn’t be hanging their heads too much over the midweek loss to Bayern. Erling Haaland is still here as manager Marco Rose (over from Borussia Monchengladbach) inherited a tremendously talented club. Haaland scored twice against Frankfurt while assisting on the other three goals. A decisive win over a side that finished top five in the Bundesliga a season ago was quite the way to start the season. Even with some expected absences, BVB is still far more talented than their opponents on Saturday. Freiburg did have an unbeaten preseason and has made progress in the DFB-Pokal. However, failing to score last week against an Arminia Bielefeld side that barely avoided relegation last season was not promising. Dortmund was the second highest scoring side in the Bundesliga last year. They don’t have to worry about Robert Lewandowski today. I know that Freiburg were pretty strong on home soil in 2020/21, including a 2-1 win over Dortmund, but they are a middle of the table side that is not in BVB’s same class. 8* Borussia Dortmund |
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08-21-21 | FC Augsburg v. Eintracht Frankfurt -155 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
8* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 AM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt was one of my favorites to move up in the Bundesliga standings last season. And move up they did, from 9th to 5th. The disappointment of not finishing in the top four had to sting a little, but perhaps not as much as a tumultuous offseason which saw the manager, CEO and top goal scorer all move on. A 5-2 loss at the hands of Borussia Dortmund is certainly not how new manager Oliver Glasner hoped to open the new season. But the former VfL Wolfsburg manager has a much easier fixture on tap for matchday two, at home. Augsburg was similarly thrashed in its opener, 4-0 against Hoffenheim. While Frankfurt can at least “handwave” its opening week defeat by pointing to the level of opposition, the same cannot be said here for Augsburg. Granted, Hoffenheim finished ahead of them in the table last season (so did a lot of teams), but not by much. In terms of expected goals, Augsburg’s loss was one of the worst efforts of the entire weekend in the Bundesliga. Frankfurt did not lose a match at home last season and has beaten Augsburg in each of the last three meetings. This is a discounted price on the hosts, who are off a bad loss but facing a drop in class this week. 8* Eintracht Frankfurt |
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08-20-21 | Cadiz CF v. Betis -171 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -171 | 47 h 30 m | Show |
7* Real Betis (3:00 ET): Real Betis finished sixth in the La Liga table last season, so they are automatically a part of this season’s Europa League. I thought that they were a tad lucky to finish that high considering their goal differential was 0. There was a big gap between them and the top four. But considering it was the club’s highest finish since 2004/05, they’ll take it. Despite a relatively inactive summer, the Green and Whites have high aspirations for this campaign, so you have to figure they were quite disgusted with playing to a 1-1 draw with freshly promoted Mallorca on opening weekend. Cadiz is also coming off a 1-1 draw. They were behind until the 97th minute against Levante, so they ought to feel rather fortunate to have escaped with a point. I also think this side was fortunate to finish 12th in the table a season ago. They finished with the second lowest expected point total in all of La Liga and their goal differential (-22) was one of the worst in the entire league. The primary reason for that is they conceded the second highest number of goals. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Yellow Submarine finish in the relegation zone at the end of this year’s campaign. This is actually the 1st time since 1993 that Cadiz is in the Spanish top flight in back to back years. So history is against them in 2021/22. They lost 1-0 both times they faced Betis last season. I know Betis was a little fortunate in its own right to escape with a draw last week as their only score came on a Mallorca own goal. But they dominated possession (66%) in that match. They also dominated on home soil last year, picking up 35 points, which was only three fewer than Barcelona did at Camp Nou. I expect Betis to nab the full three points, just as they did in both fixtures with Cadiz last term. 7* Real Betis |
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08-16-21 | Granada v. Villarreal -180 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -180 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
10* Villarreal (2:00 ET): Reigning Europa League Champion Villarreal, fresh off a UEFA Super Cup loss to Chelsea, will look to bounce back Monday and open the La Liga campaign with a win. The annual match between the winner of the Champions League and winner of the Europa League was not settled after 90 minutes, nor 120, so things went to a shootout where the Yellow Submarine fell 6-5. Villarreal finished seventh in the La Liga table last season, quite a bit off the pace of the top four. I expect them to finish closer to the top this term and start the season by getting the full three points in this one. Granada, like Villarreal, has finished in the top half of the table each of the last two seasons. However, advanced metrics say they were lucky to do that - at least they were last season. Granada actually finished third worst in expected points in 2020/21, so I’m looking for a drop in the standings this year. While their opponents are coming off a high-profile match, Granada hasn’t played a competitive affair in three months. They did win three of five friendlies over the summer, but that hardly prepares them for what they are up against here. Granada hasn’t beaten Villarreal in the Spanish top flight since 2014. Now that’s a little misleading as they spent a couple seasons relegated in the Segunda Division. The B2B top nine finishes are impressive. But only one La Liga side (relegated Eibar) lost more times last season. They also conceded the most goals in the entire league! A top nine finish was a minor miracle. But now they have a new, unproven manager. If Villarreal hopes to finish in the top four this year, then this is a match where they must take the full three points. 10* Villarreal |
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08-14-21 | Leeds United v. Manchester United -172 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
7* Manchester United (7:30 AM ET): Manchester United finished second in the Premier League table last season. With 74 points, it was a distant second to runaway winner Man City. In doing my prep work for the 2021/22 season, it sure seems as if the expectation is for the Red Devils to fall down a few spots. While it is true they had a fortuitous record in one-goal games (won 11 of 14) and won a league-leading 10 times when conceding first, I think they certainly still “bring enough to the table” to outlast Leeds United in the season opener Saturday morning. Now last season, Leeds was the rare instance of a newly promoted side expected to do well in its return to the English top flight. They had a solid accounting of themselves, finishing ninth in the table. They were only six points off the Europa League positions. So it was a successful first year back. But I still don’t see the Whites being that close to the top Premier League clubs. While they did play to a scoreless draw in one of two fixtures with ManU last season, they lost the other 6-2. The pre-season did not go all that well for Leeds United as they suffered three defeats in six matches. They only won once. Man United will have several absences for this first fixture, but they came away with a 4-0 win in a friendly against Everton in the final preseason tune-up. They believe they still have the goods to compete with Man City and I view them as a top four side in the EPL. Look for them to get the full three points in this one. 7* Manchester United |
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08-13-21 | Arsenal v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -112 | 49 h 7 m | Show |
10* Over Arsenal/Brentford (3:00 ET): Brentford becomes the 50th club to compete in the English Premier League, having earned a promotion by finishing third in the Championship last season and winning a playoff over Swansea. The Bees have been in the English top flight before, but that predated the formation of the EPL and was all the way back in 1947-48! So they’ll be happy to be here. The campaign begins against Arsenal, a side that won’t be playing European football this season - for the first time in a quarter century. The Gunners finished eighth in the table last season, which is pretty much where they deserved to finish. They did win their final five fixtures of last season, though that was not enough to overcome Tottenham Hotspur for Europa League qualifying. Undoubtedly, the highlight so far under manager Mikel Arteta was winning the FA Cup. However, the pressure is on after a terrible preseason which saw the club lose to Tottenham, Chelsea and Hibernian. I think the interesting thing here is that Brentford was the highest scoring side in the Championship last year. They tallied 79 goals, which was well out in front of most of the second tier league. They are led by Ivan Toney, who scored 33 of those 79 goals a year ago. I absolutely anticipate the Bees breaking through with a goal or two in the first match of the season. Arsenal was not a terribly high-scoring club LY, but should be able to find the back of the net a couple times against the recently promoted side. 10* Over Arsenal/Brentford |
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08-01-21 | Mexico +132 v. United States | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10* Mexico (8:30 ET): So we’re down to the final matchup everyone expected in the Gold Cup with Mexico taking on the United States. This is a rematch of the 2019 Final, won by Mexico 1-0 in Chicago. This year’s Final takes place in Las Vegas. Mexico was the favorite coming into the Gold Cup and has conceded only one goal in their five matches. The same can be said for the U.S., who had the second lowest odds to win coming into the tournament. Both sides are off close calls in the semifinals, but at the end of the day Mexico is simply the better and more experienced side. I look for a repeat of two years ago. Mexico did need a stoppage time goal to edge Canada 2-1 in the semis but had largely been dominant before that in this Gold Cup run. It was their first time ever opening this tournament with four successive clean sheets. They finally conceded in the 57th minute vs. Canada, but still have never trailed in this tournament. They whipped Honduras 3-0 in the quarterfinals, scoring all three goals in the opening 40 minutes. It was Honduras’ worst loss in any competition in two years. With at least six shots on target in every match so far, El Tri probably should have more goals to its credit in this tournament. In my previous analysis, I mentioned how Mexico has now made it to seven straight Gold Cup semifinals. This is their 10th all-time appearance in the Final and they’ve conceded only three goals in the previous nine. They have a 6-1 record vs. the Americans in the Final match, but are out for revenge here after losing in the Finals of the Nations League last month. I just can’t see the U.S. beating Mexico two straight times. Not with the average age of the starting XI being just under 24 years. The US was outshot 17-6 by Qatar in the semis and has only scored one goal in four of its five matches so far. The lone goals scored their last two times out both came beyond the 80th minute. 10* Mexico |
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07-29-21 | Canada v. Mexico -169 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
7* Mexico (10:00 ET): Reigning champs Mexico are in their seventh straight Gold Cup semifinals and only seem to be getting stronger as this tournament wears on. Having yet to concede a single goal, they are off a dominant 3-0 win over Honduras. That was Honduras’ worst loss - in any competition - since 2019. El Tri scored three times in the opening 40 minutes, connecting on half of its shot attempts. Impressive as that was, this is the first time since Mexico has opened a Gold Cup with four successive clean sheets. Our neighbors to the north (I’m speaking as an American here) are far less accustomed to this stage. This will be only the fourth all-time semifinal appearance at a Gold Cup for Canada, who is coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Costa Rica. Some of the sloppiness that we saw from them in the group stage was not present in the quarterfinal victory. Unlike Mexico, Canada has lost a match in this tournament, 1-0 to the United States which decided Group B. The problem for Canada here is that Mexico is a “hill” they have been unable to climb in the past. They have not defeated El Tri in over 21 years. What’s remarkable about Canada having scored 10 goals in this tournament is the fact that they came in without their two primarily goal scorers. But here is where that catches up with them. Not only has Mexico yet to concede a single time here in the Gold Cup, they are working on a streak of seven consecutive clean sheets. In their last five Gold Cup meetings, Mexico has outscored Canada 17-4. Look for a return trip to the Finals to be booked inside 90 minutes + stoppage time. 7* Mexico |
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07-25-21 | Jamaica v. United States UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Under Jamaica/USA (9:30 ET): The quarterfinals of this year’s CONCACAF Gold Cup wrap up Sunday night in Dallas with the United States playing host to Jamaica. The U.S. won Group B with a perfect 3-0 record and they conceded only one time. The fact they scored eight goals, tied for second most among all sides in the group stage, is a little misleading though. Six of those eight goals came in a thrashing of overmatched Martinique. The other two fixtures were both 1-0 wins (over Canada and Haiti). The general consensus was that the Americans were a bit underwhelming in the group stage. Jamaica got here by finishing second in Group C. They conceded only two times in their three matches and like the US went into the final fixture knowing they did not need points to qualify for the quarterfinals. But unlike the Americans, who won 1-0 over Canada, Jamaica lost that final fixture - 1-0 to Costa Rica. Before that it was a 2-1 win over Guadeloupe and a 2-0 win over Suriname. However, achieving victory here figures to be a lot more challenging as the Reggae Boyz have beaten the Americans only once in six tries at the Gold Cup, including a 2-1 loss in the 2017 Final and a 3-1 loss in the 2019 semis. I think this matchup will be much lower-scoring than those two previous Gold Cup tussles. It remains to be seen if the Americans were simply being passive against Canada as they took only six shots in 90 minutes with only one of those being on target. Jamaica did control the possession against Costa Rica, allowing only five shots in the match. The Reggae Boyz are unbeaten in their last three Gold Cup quarterfinals, but so is the U.S., who hasn’t even conceded a single goal in this round in any of those three wins. All it may take to win here is one goal. 10* Under Jamaica/USA |
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07-24-21 | El Salvador v. Qatar -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
10* Qatar (7:30 ET): Qatar made quite the statement in winning Group D. The 2022 World Cup hosts claimed two victories and a draw, plus they finished as the highest scoring side in group play with nine goals scored. They are now unbeaten across their last 10 matches with the last loss coming in a friendly against South Korea back in November. It wasn’t just goal scoring where Qatar showed its prowess either; they’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets where they allowed just two shots on goal! El Salvador finished second in Group A as they knew they were already through to the quarterfinals when they lost to Mexico 1-0. Though they had their fair share of goalscoring opportunities in that final match of the group stage - and dominated possession - La Selecta was actually lucky they weren’t beaten worse than 1-0 as Mexico blew its own share of opportunities. They can’t be nearly as careless with the football if they want to win here against a team that has trailed only three times in its last 12 matches. Qatar is unbeaten in its last five against CONCACAF sides and last time out held Honduras w/o a shot for the entirety of the match. That’s very impressive. Don’t forget they won the Asian Cup two years ago and didn’t even concede a goal until the Final of that tournament. Their lone blemish here in the Gold Cup was the opening match draw vs. Panama where three different times they blew a one-goal advantage. Since then, they’ve allowed nothing and scored six goals. El Salvador has never made it past the quarterfinals in the Gold Cup and isn’t favored to do so here. Right before this tournament began, Qatar won a friendly 1-0 and this one figures to be more lopsided than that. 10* Qatar |
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07-20-21 | Guadeloupe v. Suriname -175 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
7* Suriname (7:00 ET): Group C action wraps up on Tuesday. Guadeloupe and Suriname have already been officially eliminated from reaching the knockout stage of the tournament, so there’s nothing but pride on the line here. Suriname has lost 2-0 to Jamaica and 2-1 to Costa Rica. Guadeloupe has lost 3-1 to Costa Rica and 2-1 to Jamaica. While both sides have the same goal differential (-3) through the first two matches and blew leads on Friday, I believe Suriname has pretty clearly been the better looking side so far. I’ll go with them to record their first ever Gold Cup victory on Tuesday. Seeing as this is their first ever appearance at a Gold Cup, the effort from Suriname has been impressive thus far. They gave Costa Rica all it could handle on Friday by opening up the scoring in the 52nd minute. Unfortunately for them, they led for just six minutes. They conceded the equalizer and go-ahead goal within a minute of each other. Still, as they did in the opener vs. Jamaica, Suriname won the possession battle vs. Costa Rica. They also have outshot each of the first two opponents. Guadeloupe’s early 1-0 lead on Jamaica seemed more fortuitous though as they got a deflection in the 4th minute. From that point forward, they were pretty much dominated. They’ve lost the possession battle in each match and been outshot as well. While this is their first Gold Cup appearance in a decade, Guadeloupe is on an 0-5 run in this event. Suriname is more deserving to leave with some points and I think they’ll get the full three here. 7* Suriname |
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07-18-21 | Haiti v. Martinique OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
10* Over Haiti/Martinique (5:00 ET): There is nothing on the line here except pride as Haiti and Martinique conclude Group B action on Sunday evening in Dallas. Neither side can advance to the knockout stage as both are 0-2. Haiti lost 1-0 to the United States and 4-1 to Canada while Martinique has been even worse, also losing 4-1 to Canada but 6-1 to the U.S. With nothing to play for, I expect a pretty wide open match here and will go with the Over. Haiti has never finished a Gold Cup without a point in seven all-time appearances. This is clearly their best shot to continue that streak as it was a tough draw with the U.S. and Canada being in the same group. The 2019 semifinalists actually played better than the 4-1 scoreline would indicate vs. Canada. There were numerous scoring chances at the end of the first half where they failed to convert. Now facing a side that has conceded 10 times in two matches, you can look for Haiti to put forth its highest scoring game of the tournament. I expect at least two goals from them. The reason I’m not going with Haiti here is a leaky final third. In three of their four defeats this year, Haiti has conceded in the opening 15 minutes. So I expect Martinique to score at least one goal here as well, just as they’ve done in each of the first two matches. Again, neither side has anything to play for, so there’s no reason to hold back. This is also Martinique’s best shot at salvaging at least a point. It should be wide-open and exciting tonight and if you like lots of goals, this one is for you. 10* Over Haiti/Martinique |
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07-17-21 | Honduras v. Panama OVER 2 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
10* Over Honduras/Panama (9:30 ET): Scoring was not in short supply for either side in the respective first group matches. Honduras crushed Grenada 4-0 while Panama played to a 3-3 draw with Qatar. Going by those two scorelines, it would certainly seem reasonable to expect more than two total goals being scored in this one and thus Over is the call Saturday night in Group D action. Four different players scored for Honduras in that opening match. They should certainly be able to now take advantage of a Panama defense that has become somewhat leaky of late. The Panamanians have conceded three times in B2B matches, the other being an International Friendly against Mexico prior to the start of this Tournament. Honduras has now gone two matches without conceding, but that should certainly change here as they are faced with a much better opponent than what they saw Tuesday. Panama had to rally from a goal down THREE different times against Qatar to share the points in their opening match. Given the fireworks that were on display in that one, it would shock me if both sides didn’t score at least once here. That puts the Over in play. This simply looks like a bad job from the oddsmakers. 10* Over Honduras/Panama |
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07-11-21 | England v. Italy OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* Over Italy/England (3:00 ET): So last night’s Copa America Final may not have been as high-scoring as I’d anticipated, but you can look for Sunday’s Euro Cup final to go Over the total. This despite the fact England has conceded only one goal this entire tournament. But that one goal came in the semifinal win over Denmark and it certainly felt as if they could have conceded one more. Italy has scored more times than anybody in Euro 2020 (12 goals), but they’ve also conceded in every match here in the knockout stage. Over the course of an incredible 33-match unbeaten run, Italy has outscored the opposition by 76 goals. But making the task tougher here is the fact that this Final will be played at Wembley Stadium where England has won 15 of its last 17 matches. The Three Lions are also unbeaten in their L12 across all competitions with 11 wins and one draw. So this is a matchup certainly worthy of being a Final. While most probably are expecting a tightly played match, I think there will be more fireworks than anticipated. Italy allowed Spain to control 70% of the possession in the semifinal, plus they allowed 16 shots on goal. I know that England has only two games with multiple goals in this tournament, but it “feels” like they are on the cusp of another goal-scoring breakthrough. Maybe not the likes of what we saw vs. Ukraine, but look for them to score at least once inside of 90 minutes Sunday. Also expect at least one goal from Italy, who has scored at least once inside of 90 in every match in the tournament. 10* Over Italy/England |
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07-10-21 | Argentina v. Brazil OVER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -111 | 44 h 17 m | Show |
10* Over Brazil/Argentina (8:00 ET): There were certainly many “trials and tribulations” just to get the 2021 Copa America Tournament underway. But in the end, it’s come down to the two sides everyone expected. Brazil, the reigning champs, will look to win this event for a 10th time. Argentina has 14 Copa America titles to its credit, but the last one came 28 years ago. It’s a matchup where I don’t feel comfortable predicting a winner. However, I do anticipate both sides scoring at least once inside of 90 minutes and thus Over is my call for Saturday’s Final in Rio. Neither side has been beaten in this tournament and each have just one draw as the lone “blemish.” Argentina opened with a 1-1 draw vs. Chile, but then ran through the rest of the group stage in impressive fashion. After downing Uruguay and Paraguay by identical 1-0 scores, they smoked Group A bottom feeders Bolivia 4-1. Then came a 3-0 win over Ecuador in the quarterfinals. Having won four straight while keeping three clean sheets had La Albiceleste very confident heading into the semis vs. Colombia. But they actually needed to go to penalties to outlast La Tricolor after things were tied 1-1 after 120 minutes. Brazil, like Argentina, has scored at least one goal inside 90 minutes in every match in this tournament. Their draw, 1-1 vs. Ecuador, came in the final match of the group stage. They’ve since claimed a pair of 1-0 victories over Chile and Peru in the knockout rounds. Having conceded only twice in the entire tournament is impressive, but a motivated Lionel Messi and Argentina will prove difficult to keep off the scoresheet. None of the L4 H2H meetings have seen more than two goals scored, but this one breaks the streak. 10* Over Brazil/Argentina |
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07-07-21 | Denmark +0.75 v. England | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
10* Denmark +0.75 (3:00 ET): Note that I am playing the goal line here. While I do think Denmark has what it takes to win this semifinal in “normal time,” playing the goal line only requires them to be tied at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. England is the favorite here as they are at home (Wembley) and have yet to concede a single goal in this tournament. But Denmark will be their toughest test yet (yes, even tougher than Germany) and at the very least this match will be level at the end of regulation. You can definitely expect the Danes to be the first to score on The Three Lions. England may be the favorite on the money line, but Denmark is the sentimental favorite after what happened with Christian Eriksen in the very first match of the tournament. After losing their first two matches, Denmark looked to be in real trouble. But they’ve since won three in a row, all in normal time. They scored four goals against both Russia and Wales, then outlasted the Czech Republic 2-1 in the quarterfinals. The goal conceded in the quarterfinals is the lone non-penalty conceded by Denmark during the three match win streak. In other words, they’ve been almost as stingy as England while also displaying far more offensive firepower. Denmark leads England in shots on goal (86 to 37), expected goals (10.1 to 7.8) and actual goals (10 to 8) in this tournament. I did play England in their quarterfinal match against Ukraine, but noted it was a clear fade on the underdog, who was easily the weakest of the eight teams remaining. Winning at Wembley will be tough as Denmark won’t have the crowd support that they’ve relied on for much of this run. But all we need is for them to be even after 90 minutes. This is a side that has trailed for only 20 total minutes in their last four matches. England had scored only four goals in its first four matches. 10* Denmark +0.75 |
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07-06-21 | Colombia v. Argentina -113 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* Argentina (9:00 ET): Argentina has had a much better Copa America tournament compared to Colombia and I’m surprised to see their odds dropping here for this semi-final clash. Since opening with a 1-1 draw vs. Chile, La Albiceleste has won four straight while keeping three clean sheets. They won Group A and then easily dispatched Ecuador (3-0) in the quarterfinals to get to this round. I expect them to win this one inside of 90 minutes and advance to face Brazil in the Final on Sunday. Colombia has definitely underperformed expectations in this tournament. They lost twice in the group stage. There’s no shame in going down 2-1 to Brazil, but a loss by the same score to Peru was certainly disappointing. As was a goalless draw with Venezuela. They did beat Ecuador, 1-0, in the opening fixture of the group stage, but that is their only win inside of 90 minutes in this tournament. They made the semifinals after outlasting Uruguay on penalties Saturday. So inside of 90 minutes, Colombia has scored only three goals this entire tournament! Argentina has scored a total of seven in the last two matches alone. Lionel Messi has scored more goals in this tournament than the entire Colombia team. The favorites haven’t lost here in the Copa America and nor will they tonight as they look to win their first Copa America since ‘93. An Argentina-Brazil final seems quite logical at this point. 10* Argentina |
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07-03-21 | England -215 v. Ukraine | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
6* England (3:00 ET): Underdogs have been on a great run of late here in Euro 2020, but I’m going with England to win inside of 90 minutes today. The Three Lions drew the best quarterfinal matchup as they’ll be facing a Ukraine side whose only normal time win in this tournament came against North Macedonia (the weakest of the 24 sides). It took the latest game-winning goal EVER in a Euro Cup competition for Ukraine to beat Sweden (who was down to 10 men) in the Round of 16. Meanwhile, England has not conceded a single goal in this tournament. They are a pretty easy call to advance. It was 2-0 over Germany in the Round of 16 for England. Getting past an old nemesis should give the Three Lions some added confidence moving forward. Not that they needed the added confidence after giving up zero goals in four matches. They’ve allowed only 35 shots and the fact that the line for Ukraine goals sits at 0.5 (-125) pretty much tells you all you need to know about what to expect from them. Ukraine had only one quality shot at scoring pre-red card vs. Sweden and they converted. But that’s the only even strength goal they have in the last two matches. They have the 2nd fewest shots on goal among the eight quarter finalists. I even entertained the notion of laying the -1 ¼ on the goal line in this one, but opted for the three-way line just in case England only notches one goal here. I think there is potential for them to score multiple goals today, as they did vs. Germany. There’s too much talent on hand for Gareth Southgate for this team to have just four goals scored in four matches. Ukraine plays a similar style to Germany, only they aren’t as talented. They are easily the weakest team remaining and I can’t resist fading them in this spot. 6* England |
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07-02-21 | Spain -150 v. Switzerland | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -150 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
10* Spain (12:00 ET): Two sides that required extra time to advance past the Round of 16 meet here in the quarterfinals with Spain taking on Switzerland. In the case of Spain, they blew a two-goal lead in the final six minutes of regulation against Croatia. But they still got through thanks to TWO extra time goals. It was a little different for Switzerland, who had to rally from a late two-goal deficit against France and then win on penalties. Despite how those two matches went down, I think Spain looked far better than Switzerland. Had La Roja simply finished things off inside of 90 minutes, we’d be looking at a much steeper price. I say take advantage of the discount. There seems to be a perception that Spain is underperforming here at Euro 2020, but I don’t think that’s really the case. They are #1 in possession (72%), goals scored (11) and expected goals scored (11.6). Perhaps it was the slow start to the tournament (just one goal in the first two matches) or it coming down to extra time vs. Croatia, but I think La Roja is being really undervalued here. They’ve scored 10 times in the L2 matches! They’ve had at least 2.4 expected goals in all four matches in the tournament. Crazy as it may sound, the highest scoring team in Euro 2020 should have even more goals to its name. As for the number of goals conceded last time out, not only did two come in the final six minutes but the first was an own goal. Those things should be “cleaned up” here. They’d conceded only once in the three group stage fixtures. Switzerland is in the quarterfinals of this tournament for the 1st time ever and that’s despite having just one win in normal time (against Turkey). Against France and Italy, there were 6.6 expected goals allowed and they were outshot 39-17. La Nati has not fared well in the past against Spain, winning only one time in the last 22 fixtures with 16 defeats. They won’t have Granit Xhaka for this one due to yellow card accumulation. He was the team leader in touches and passes completed in the tournament. I think the Swiss were quite lucky to defeat France. They won’t be so lucky here. 10* Spain |
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06-28-21 | Switzerland v. France -146 | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -146 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
10* France (3:00 ET): Coming into Euro “2020,” everyone knew that Group F was going to be the toughest. It was reigning World Cup Champion France that won the “Group of Death,” although they did so with just five points. After opening with a win over Germany, Les Blues then drew with both Hungary and Portugal. It was the draw with Hungary that “raised some eyebrows,” but I don’t think there’s anything to worry about here heading into this Round of 16 clash with Switzerland. Look for France to wrap this up in 90 minutes + added time. I took Switzerland in their final group match, which ended up being a commanding 3-1 trouncing of Turkey. That win is what got them into the knockout stage. I took them while noting that it had really been an underwhelming start to the tournament with a 1-1 draw against Wales and a 3-0 loss to Italy. The Swiss are a top 13 ranked team in the world right now, but they are not in France’s class. One would have to go all the way back to a 1992 friendly to find the last time the Swiss defeated Les Blues. France remains unbeaten across their L10 competitions, so there’s no real reason for anyone to be “down” on this side. They were unbeaten in a tough draw. Switzerland, on the other hand, had the one good performance but getting clobbered by Italy and drawing Wales was not good. They have been knocked out in this round in the last two World Cups and the last Euro Cup. France is the best defensive team in the world and has conceded only once in this tournament excluding penalties. 10* France |
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06-27-21 | Czech Republic v. Netherlands -144 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 38 h 37 m | Show |
10* Netherlands (12:00 ET): I think a pretty clear case can be made that there were three dominant sides in the group stage. Those would be: Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands, all of whom won all three matches. In the case of the Netherlands, who I am taking here, there seems to be a pretty clear path to the semis. They’re obviously favored here and likely would be so against whomever prevails between Wales and Denmark. After a shaky first match here at Euro 2020 (3-2 win over Ukraine), Oranje blew past both Austria and North Macedonia by a combined score of 5-0. The Czech Republic got here by being one of the four best third place teams. They opened with a 2-0 win over Scotland and 1-1 draw with Croatia. But then, just like those two sides, they could not score against England in a 1-0 loss. Still, four points was another to get them here. But just two wins in their last six across all competitions is not exactly inspiring. Yes, the Netherlands had a weak group and all three matches were in Amsterdam. This will be the first time playing away from home in this tournament. But they are the in-form side here and favorites for a reason. They’ve also got some revenge to exact after losing the last two times they faced the Czech Republic. The new-look 3-4-1-2 set up certainly seems to be working and I’ll call for Oranje to head to the quarterfinals. 10* Netherlands |
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06-26-21 | Austria v. Italy -207 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -207 | 47 h 6 m | Show |
6* Italy (3:00 ET): This clearly looks to be the biggest mismatch in the entire Round of 16. Italy ran through the group stage, winning all three of its matches with a +7 goal differential. That was the best GD of any side in Euro 2020 and a continuation of an exceptional run of form by the Azzurri. Not only are they perfect here in Euro 2020, but they’ve won their last 11 matches across all competitions and are unbeaten in a record-tying 30 straight! After easily dispatching both Turkey and Switzerland by identical 3-0 scores, Italy beat Wales far worse than the 1-0 final would seem to indicate. Look for them to easily make it through to the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Austria is in the knockout round for the first time ever in the European Championship. They won twice in the group stage, defeating Ukraine and North Macedonia. But their 2-0 loss to the Netherlands doesn’t bode well for them here when the Austrians face an even taller task. Their draw to get to the knockout round seemed to be a relatively easy one as a win over North Macedonia was all but assured and then all that was needed was some positive result vs. Ukraine, which they got in a relatively sloppy affair. Not only has Italy won their last 11 international matches, they have not conceded a single time during that win streak! That’s remarkable. I do not expect them to concede Saturday. While this match is in London, not Stadio Olimpico, Italy will still have the edge in fan support as the Austrian faithful are being discouraged from attending due to COVID-19 concerns. The Azzurri also have the edge in confidence, knowing no Italian side has lost to Austria since 1960 and they’ve won the last four tournament meetings. 6* Italy |
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06-21-21 | Denmark -138 v. Russia | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
10* Denmark (3:00 ET): Thus far, there have been only two instances of a Euro Cup side scoring the first goal and losing the match. The more recent instance was Portugal against Germany on Saturday. The other was Denmark vs. Belgium earlier in the week. It has been a cruel and unfortunate situation for the Danes at Euro 2020 with Christian Eriksen collapsing just before halftime of the first match. Truth be told, the team had no business finishing the match later in the day. They ended up suffering a shocking 1-0 defeat at the hands of Finland, then came the blown lead against Group B favorite Belgium. Despite opening with the two straight losses, Denmark still has a chance to progress to the knockout stage. But they MUST win this final match of the group stage against Russia. Eriksen visited the team during practice on Saturday and that should be an inspirational lift. If they were to win by two goals on Monday, which is not out of the realm of possibility, and Finland loses to Belgium (likely!) then Denmark would automatically qualify for the Round of 16. It would be foolish to write this team off, considering how they were expected to make it to the knockout stage. Against Belgium, the #1 ranked side in the world, they led for 53 minutes and dominated in shots. Russia has also lost to Belgium (3-0), but did beat Finland 1-0. They were really dominated by the Belgians and failed to impress against Finland, who had an early goal disallowed due to VAR. Prior to their match against Belgium, Denmark had conceded only two goals in six matches and they kept the favorites off the scoresheet in the first half. I think they are going to come out aggressive here and looking for goals. They are due for a breakthrough and what a story it would be if they moved on to the Round of 16. 10* Denmark |
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06-20-21 | Peru v. Colombia -148 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 32 h 13 m | Show |
10* Colombia (8:00 ET): Coming off a very disappointing 0-0 draw against undermanned Venezuela, Colombia should have a “take no prisoners” approach against Peru. A win here would put Colombia through to the quarterfinals as they were 1-0 winners over Ecuador in their Copa America opener last week. Meanwhile, Peru has played only one fixture and that was against Brazil. That went even worse than you’d expect as they were crushed 4-0. Look for La Tricolor to get the full three (points) here. Not being able to beat Venezuela was certainly disappointing, but the fact Colombia has yet to concede a single goal in this tournament is definitely an encouraging sign. The gap between the top two sides in Group A (Brazil, Colombia) and the bottom three (Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela) is thought to be rather large. Not taking full points for a second straight outing before facing Brazil is a position the Colombians don’t want to find themselves in and would really be considered unfathomable. They’ve won three straight against Peru, keeping a “clean sheet” in every match. Peru conceding four goals in the opening match puts them behind the 8-ball in terms of qualification for the quarterfinals. Their best path would be to simply defeat both Ecuador and Venezuela. So if things get out of hand early here, and I expect they will, look for the underdogs to simply throw in the towel. As for Colombia, they have every reason to want to finish in the top two of Group A as that would allow them to avoid Argentina and Uruguay in the quarters. 10* Colombia |
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06-20-21 | Turkey v. Switzerland -147 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
8* Switzerland (12:00 ET): Despite underperforming so far in the Group stage, Switzerland still has a strong chance of qualifying for the Round of 16 in the Euro Cup. But they have to win Sunday. An in-form side with six straight wins heading into Euro 2020, a draw and a loss is not what the Swiss faithful were expecting from the first two matches. There’s no shame in losing to Italy, who came is as the favorite to win Group A. But 3-0 was a terrible result for the 13th ranked team in the world. I expect Switzerland to bounce back here. Turkey has been outscored by five goals in their two matches, both of which ended in defeat. They too were 3-0 losers to Italy, then came a 2-0 loss to Wales. With that kind of goal differential, odds are against Turkey qualifying for the Round of 16. Their only way in at this point is to be one of the four third place teams, but that goal differential which is currently the worst of all 24 sides in this Tournament is going to be a pesky problem. Switzerland has underperformed in previous Euro Cups, but this one was supposed to be different. They made the knockout stage five years ago and were unbeaten going back to November coming into the Championship. I’m willing to “throw away” the result vs. Italy and instead look to what happened vs. Wales when the Swizz controlled 62% of the possession. They scored first in that opening match and later thought they’d broken the 1-1 stalemate as Haris Seferovic put one in the back of the next in the 85th minute. But VAR (replay) reared its ugly head, leaving them with the draw. I expect them to get the full three points here. 8* Switzerland |
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06-18-21 | Bolivia v. Chile UNDER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
10* Under Chile/Bolivia (5:00 ET): It was certainly an “ominous” road to the Copa America tournament, but here we are. Chile is likely thrilled to have shared the points with Argentina in a 1-1 draw in their opener. Meanwhile, Bolivia got buried by Paraguay 3-1 and is looking to bounce back here. I see a pretty low-scoring match taking place on Friday, much lower scoring than Bolivia’s first encounter as all three goals they conceded came after a red card. Chile will be without the lone player that scored for them against Argentina. I’m on the Under here. After a Lionel Messi free kick put Chile in an early 1-0 hole, Eduardo Vargas was able to equalize in the 57th minute, giving La Roja a key point. It was their third consecutive 1-1 draw across all competitions. Certainly, an argument could be made that Chile could have easily lost the opener as Argentina missed several scoring opportunities. But the good news here is that Bolivia lacks the firepower of Argentina. In addition to being without Jaume Cuellar, who drew the red card vs. Paraguay, five other Bolivian players are out due to COVID-19. Thus, I’d be surprised to see Chile concede at all on Friday. At the same time, I don’t see them rolling like Paraguay did in the second half against Bolivia. When these sides met earlier this month in World Cup Qualifying, it was another of those 1-1 draws for Chile. Bolivia has scored only four goals in its last five fixtures with Chile. La Roja is not only going to be without Vargas, their lone goal scorer from the first match, but also Alexis Sanchez as he’s been ruled out for the rest of the group stage. It’s tough to see where the goals come from in this one. 10* Under Chile/Bolivia |
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06-18-21 | Slovakia v. Sweden -116 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show |
10* Sweden (9:00 AM ET): I think it’s fair to say that both of these sides walked away happy from their respective first Euro Cup matches. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to jump out to the early lead in Group E. But I was far more impressed with Sweden, who kept a clean sheet in a crucial draw with Group E favorite Spain. The winner on Friday will find themselves in GREAT shape when it comes to progressing on to the knockout stage and I think that’s going to be Sweden, who has won five of its last six across all competitions. Slovakia definitely had some things go their way on the opening matchday. An “own goal” by Poland (18th minute) gave the Falcons the early 1-0 lead. Then after letting things get tied up, the match took a dramatic swing in the 62nd minute when Poland’s Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off with a red card. Just seven minutes later, Slovakia got the game winner from Milan Skriniar. Such good fortune is unlikely to go their way again, so look for the Falcons to struggle to find the back of the net in this second match. They actually lost the possession battle to Poland. Sweden also lost the possession battle vs. Spain and certainly they could have conceded on multiple occasions. But they were able to hold on for the 0-0 draw and pick up a point. They are the better side here and deserve to be favored. Having failed to make the knockout stage of any Euro Cup since 2004, Sweden will be the more motivated side here. They’ve never lost to Slovakia in five all-time meetings (two wins, three draws) and while Slovakia is also unbeaten in their last six across all competitions, only two of those were wins. Going back further, Slovakia has only won twice inside of 90 minutes in their L13 chances. 10* Sweden |
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06-15-21 | Germany v. France UNDER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show |
10* Under France/Germany (3:00 ET): What a matchup we have here in the “Group of Death” as Euro Cup favorites France take on Germany in the opening matchday for Group F. Les Blues are considered the odds on favorite to win this event (+475), although coming out unscathed in a group that includes not only Germany, but Portugal as well, will prove difficult. I like the Under in the first match as France simply doesn’t concede many goals and this should be a supremely tightly contested affair. France was the runner-up in Euro 2016 and won the World Cup three years ago. So they are certainly justified as being the betting favorite for Euro 2020. One would have to go all the way back to the very 1st Euro Cup (in 1960) to find the only time France has dropped an opener in this event. Recent form has been very strong, including four consecutive clean sheets (shutouts). So Germany, who isn’t what they once were, has its work cut out for them on Tuesday. But don’t look for Die Mannschaft to concede many either here. The last World Cup saw Germany go out in the Group stage for the 1st time ever. But possibly forgotten is the fact France wasn’t all that prolific in the Group stage either as they tallied just four goals in three matches. Germany has never lost a Euro Cup opener and has big-time revenge here for five straight losses to Les Blues, including the 2016 semifinal. They will be content to play for a draw here. The problem is that I don’t see Germany scoring. 10* Under France/Germany |
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06-13-21 | Croatia v. England -150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 34 h 55 m | Show |
10* England (9:00 AM ET): The first match from Group D is a rematch from the 2018 World Cup semis, a result that England will look to avenge here. The Three Lions have actually already somewhat avenged that crushing 2-1 defeat from three years ago with a win in the Nations League. But a win Sunday would be much bigger as England looks to snap an embarrassing opening match run here in the European Championships. They are winless in nine attempts to win their Euro Cup opener, a streak that I believe ends today as this is one of the best teams to come out of England in some time. England is unbeaten in their six across all competitions and they were almost flawless in qualification for this event. I know there’s a general feeling that neither of the recent Int’l Friendly victories were all that inspiring, but they didn’t concede a single time against Austria or Romania. I think they’ll come out more aggressive here. There is a ton of firepower with this side. Croatia’s recent form has not been good as they have just two wins in their last six, including a 1-1 draw with Armenia and a 1-0 loss to Belgium this month. While England has yet to be successful in nine tries at winning the Euro Cup opener, they are unbeaten here at Wembley in all major tournaments. I think the home advantage is going to be huge here for The Three Lions as they look to take the full three points in this opening match. 10* England |
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05-29-21 | Chelsea v. Manchester City -114 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
10* Manchester City (3:00 ET): It’s an all-EPL final in this year’s Champions League with Chelsea taking on Man City in Porto. The latter were this season’s Premier League Champs by a comfortable margin as the Citizens finished 12 points ahead of second place Manchester United and 18 points ahead of their fellow Champions League finalists. For my money, Man City was not only the top English club this season, but the top side in all of Europe. In addition to bagging their 5th EPL title, they dominated the EFL Cup and won 11 of their 12 UCL fixtures thus far (7-0 L7). That includes wins over Gladbach, Dortmund and PSG in the knockout stages. Chelsea did finish 2nd in the EPL in expected points and there is no denying the campaign took a turn for the better once Thomas Tuchel became the manager. In the 29 matches since he took over, Chelsea has conceded 1 or 0 goals 27 times. But one of the exceptions came in the final matchweek of the season, a 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. That’s a little troubling seeing as how the Blues were looking to cement their place among the EPL’s top four (they ended up finishing 4th). Recent form hasn’t been great for Tuchel’s side as they’ve dropped three of their last four across all competitions. They did beat Atletico Madrid, Porto and Real Madrid in the knockout stages to get here. Manchester City had the EPL title wrapped up months ago, so the fact they’ve lost two of their last four fixtures is a lot less concerning. Honestly, this just “feels” like it is the season for the Citizens to win this tournament for the very first time. The fact it is a double revenge spot - Chelsea beat them 1-0 in the FA Cup semis and then 2-1 at Etihad Stadium on May 8th - only “sweetens the pot” as far as I’m concerned. In that loss on home soil, there was a crucial missed penalty for Man City and then they gave up the winning goal in added time. Man City was the only EPL side to concede fewer times than Chelsea this season and their 83 goals also led the league. No one came close to the +51 GD (#2 GD was +29). They are clearly the better side here, in my opinion. 10* Manchester City |
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05-23-21 | Roma -167 v. Spezia Calcio | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -167 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): With a win on the final matchweek of the season, Roma can solidify a seventh place finish in the Serie A table. That means a place in the new Europa Conference League next season. So the Giallorossi definitely have something to play for here. While winless in their last four away matches, they probably couldn’t have asked for a better final opponent. Spezia has just one of their last seven league games and have the fourth worst goal differential (-20) in all of Serie A. Look for the favorite to pick up all three points here and guarantee themselves European football next season. Roma bounced back nicely from a 3-1 loss to Scudetto winners Inter with a 2-0 win of their own overl Lazio last week. Though the gap between those two rivals (Lazio and Roma) is seven points, they are much closer (in terms of quality) than that margin would seem to indicate. Ironically, Lazio will be playing the side Roma would like to lose this week, that being Sassuolo. But again, the Giallorossi can make that result irrelevant simply by winning Sunday. They already the reverse fixture, 4-3, on home soil back in January. It was a rare win for Spezia last week and it came in convincing fashion, 4-1 over Torino. Considering their opponents had just been assured of safety (from relegation) midweek, that was an ideal spot for Spezia. In their first ever season in Serie A, Spezia has done better than expected, though they have conceded 70 times. Prior to the last three seasons, that was a number which all but guaranteed relegation in Serie A. The recently promoted side should feel lucky for the likes of Crotone and Parma in this, their maiden voyage in the Italian top flight. Roma has not lost five straight on the road since 2008. They win here. 10* AS Roma |
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05-23-21 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Arsenal -141 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 15 m | Show |
8* Arsenal (11:00 ET): A 25-year run of playing European football is still alive for Arsenal, thanks to last week’s stunning come from behind effort against Crystal Palace. I was also certainly happy to see the Gunners prevail as I had them in the “must-win” spot. Tied 1-1 for the majority of the match, things weren’t looking good. But then came TWO stoppage time goals and the 3-1 win allowed Arsenal to keep alive its hopes of finishing 7th in the Premier League table. To do so, they’re going to have to win again this week and hope for both Tottenham (against Leicester City and Everton (vs. Man City) to NOT win. Odds are actually in the Gunners’ favor. Brighton & Hove Albion is the side Arsenal must defeat on the final matchweek of the season. I believe that B & HA is going to be the most improved club in the entire EPL, if not all of Europe NEXT season. But for now, they’ve got nothing to play for. They are off their own thrilling win last week, a come from behind effort against league champs Man City. However, note that Brighton was playing with a man advantage for 81 minutes of the match, so it was only a matter of time before they broke through (turns out they didn’t grab the lead until the 76th minute). They were actually down two goals in the 48th minute before mounting their three-goal comeback. Brighton certainly can’t count on Arsenal picking up a red card in the 10th minute or rallying from a 2-0 deficit again. Their safety from relegation was achieved a few weeks ago and nothing significant can be achieved from victory here. As for Arsenal, a quarter-century streak is at stake and their recent form (four straight Premier League wins) is difficult to ignore. The Gunners have won nine straight season finales, so history continues to be on their side. It was a 1-0 win over Brighton in the reverse fixture back in late December. 8* Arsenal |
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05-22-21 | Real Sociedad -157 v. Osasuna | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
8* Real Sociedad (12:00 ET): A win here and Real Sociedad would clinch 5th place and a spot in next season’s Europa League. Anything less than the full three points and they’d have to “sweat out” results elsewhere involving Real Betis (vs. Celta Vigo) and Villarreal (vs. Real Madrid). Even if the “doomsday scenario” (getting passed by both) were to take place, Sociedad would still have an opportunity to qualify for the Europa League by finishing 7th. But why leave things up to chance. Look for what I feel IS the fifth best side in La Liga to finish in fifth place by picking up a win Saturday over Osasuna. Osasuna could finish in the top half of the table with a win here, but that’s unlikely to occur given the opposing side’s motivation. Plus, recent form has not been great with them winning only one time in the last five matches and that was against Cadiz. They’ve been beaten three times in their last five including last week, 2-1, by Atletico Madrid. Real Sociedad has not been a favorable opponent for Osasuna in recent memory as they are unbeaten in the last nine fixtures. Their last loss here at El Sadar was all the way back in May 2012. I’ve come out on the correct end of each of La Real’s last three matches. Three weeks ago, it was a 2-0 win with them against bottom of the table Elche. That was easy as was last week’s 4-1 win over Real Valladolid, another side facing the prospect of being relegated. In between, I faded Sociedad as they were up against Atletico Madrid and they lost that one 2-1. Osasuna falls somewhere in the middle of the spectrum of those last three opponents, but they are much closer to the bottom than they are to the top. Sociedad’s YTD goal differential (+20) is actually ahead of fourth place (and Champions League bound) Sevilla. 8* Real Sociedad |
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05-22-21 | Valencia v. SD Huesca -140 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -140 | 37 h 13 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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05-22-21 | Bayer Leverkusen v. Borussia Dortmund -160 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show |
7* Borussia Dortmund (9:30 AM ET): Both sides here have already secured their spots for European football next season, making this final match of the season just about pride. However, it is hard to overlook the recent form of Borussia Dortmund, who is closing this campaign with a flourish. Dortmund’s Champions League hopes looked dead in the water in early April, but an unbeaten run since then has secured them a UCL berth for next season as they can finish no lower than fourth in the Bundesliga table. I think this is easily a top three side in the league and assuming they keep Erling Haaland, next year they will challenge Bayern Munich for first place. Bayer Leverkusen’s recent form has not been nearly as inspiring as Dortmund's as they have just one win in the last four fixtures including B2B draws. But it’s still enough to ensure a top six finish in the Bundesliga table, meaning Leverkusen is headed to the Europa League next season. As is the case with Dortmund, Leverkusen has already announced a managerial change for next season as Young Boys’ manager Gerardo Seoane will come over. Ironically, it was Seoane’s Swiss side (Young Boys) that knocked Leverkusen out of this season’s Europa League competition. Leverkusen is dealing with some key injuries heading into the final match week of the season. Even at full strength, they couldn’t be trusted to defeat red hot Dortmund, who just picked up some additional hardware by winning their fifth ever German DFB Pokal over RB Leipzig. Dortmund is unbeaten across all competitions (won seven straight) dating back to their Champions League exit in mid-April. During that 7-match win streak, they’ve scored multiple times in every match, including three or more goals five straight times. Only one of the seven were decided by fewer than two goals. 7* Borussia Dortmund |
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05-19-21 | West Ham United -150 v. West Bromwich Albion | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
8* West Ham (3:15 ET): An ill-timed slump for West Ham has all but ruined their chances of Champions League qualification (which admittedly would have been a stunner) and now qualifying for the Europa League is even in danger. The Hammers have won just one of their last five (with three losses) and are level with Tottenham at 59 points. But an inferior goal differential has them in seventh and in desperate need of three points this week. Thankfully for the cause, West Brom should be totally demoralized after suffering a heartbreaking 3-2 defeat last week against Liverpool. I look for West Ham to take this one. In the Tottenham writeup, I mentioned there’s a quintet of clubs behind Man City that should be viewed as being “pretty equal.” Based on their goal differential, I do not consider West Ham to be among that quintet. However, there’s no denying their superiority over West Brom, who is headed back to the Championship next season as their relegation has been confirmed. Last week was a new level of heartbreak for the Baggies as Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson Becker scored on a header in the 95th minute to break a 2-2 tie. That ensured West Brom would stay even with Fulham for the fewest number of EPL wins this season (5). Also no other side has conceded more goals than West Brom’s 70. West Ham’s 28 away points this season match a club record set in 1985-86 when they finished third in the table. So even a draw here and it’s a new record, but that isn’t what the Hammers want as they try to cement their place among the top seven. Given my affinity for Tottenham and Arsenal this week plus Everton having a chance to pick up points at the expense of the Wolves, anything but the full three here for West Ham would be unsatisfactory. They won the reverse fixture 2-1 in January and should complete the first league double over West Brom since 2005-06. 8* West Ham |
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05-19-21 | Arsenal -182 v. Crystal Palace | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 46 h 50 m | Show |
7* Arsenal (2:00 ET): Unbeaten in the last four competitions (3 W 1 D), ninth place Arsenal has been able to stay alive in their pursuit of European football next season. They are four points adrift of 7th place, which is where they would need to finish to get into qualifying for next season’s Europa League. Given the recent struggles of both West Ham and Everton - the two sides directly ahead of them in the EPL table - the Gunners chances of moving up seem more likely than not, especially with favorable upcoming matchups against Crystal Palace (here) and Brighton Hove & Albion these final two weeks. What I like about this matchup for Arsenal is they’ve had more time off to prepare. A full week has passed since their impressive 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge over top four Chelsea. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace was in action Sunday when they came from behind to defeat Aston Villa 3-2. Arsenal has won three straight and prevailing at Stamford Bridge is obviously not easy, but then again the Gunners have done quite well on their travels this season, going six in a row w/o a defeat. While Arsenal’s away record is strong, Crystal Palace has not exactly been stout on home soil this season. Only West Brom and Newcastle have conceded more home goals than CP’s 29 and they’ve given up eight in the last three home matches. While the Eagles have won two of three to move up to 13th place, they can finish no higher than 11th and chances of moving up are slim with Arsenal and Liverpool as the final two fixtures. Remember that Arsenal has a 25-year streak of playing European football on the line here. You’ve got to figure they’ll continue to finish strong and having failed to beat CP five straight times adds to the motivation. 7* Arsenal |
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05-19-21 | Aston Villa v. Tottenham Hotspur -182 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -182 | 45 h 50 m | Show |
7* Tottenham (1:00 ET): This was most definitely Man City’s “year” in the Premier League. They’ve already been rewarded for being the dominant team, but behind them are five sides I view as being pretty equal. Tottenham is among that quintet. While it’s looking less and less likely the Spurs will be able to qualify for the Champions League (must finish in the top four), European football (Europa League) is still a lock for next season if they are able to finish in the top six. They are currently level with West Ham in sixth place following last week’s dominant 2-0 win over Wolverhampton. I see another dominant win here. Aston Villa is a middle of the table side, but unfortunately for them it’s not looking like they will finish in the top half. Their poor run of form continued last week with a 3-2 loss to Crystal Palace as they blew a 2-1 halftime lead. Villa has now won only two of their last 12, a run which goes back to the beginning of March. Truthfully, this side was never really able to get back on track following a COVID-19 outbreak at the start of 2021 and the absence of Jack Grealish (returned vs. CP) didn’t help matters either. They’ve also conceded multiple times in five of the last seven matches. Tottenham has not been a friendly opponent for Villa in recent seasons. The Spurs have won 12 of the previous 13 fixtures (only loss in 2015) including 2-0 back in March. With Harry Kane’s impending departure looming, it’s critical that the Spurs finish in the top six. It has been said that Kane is fully “committed” for the final two matches of the season and he should be as he’s currently level with Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah for the “Golden Boot” (most individual goals scored) and he’s struck each of the previous four matches vs. Villa. This one means so much to the Spurs and I expect them to get the full three points. 7* Tottenham |
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05-18-21 | Leicester v. Chelsea -134 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (3:15 ET): After losing 1-0 to Leicester City in the FA Cup Final Saturday, Chelsea can get a measure of revenge here at Stamford Bridge AND increase its chances of finishing in the top four of the Premier League table. Just two points separate these sides currently with Leicester in third (66 points) and Chelsea (64) in fourth. So as it stands now, both would be headed for the Champions League next season. But with fifth place Liverpool (63 points) lurking not far behind, the three points on the line Wednesday will go a long way in cementing one of these clubs’ place in the top four. I like Chelsea. As I’ve previously discussed, Chelsea’s campaign took a dramatic turn (for the better) when Thomas Tuchel took over the reins in January. The Blues have won 17 of their last 27 across all competitions all while conceding only 13 goals in the process. Ironically, Tuchel took over not long after Chelsea lost the reverse fixture with Leicester City, 2-0. Since he took over, they have conceded more than one goal only one time in 28 matches! Tuchel has the Blues in this year’s Champions League Final, against fellow EPL side Manchester City. While that affords them a second opportunity at Champions League qualification (if they were to fail to make the EPL top four), I think the revenge factor is big here for Chelsea. That the Blues have dropped two straight - both by 1-0 scores - doesn’t concern me too much. In fact, they dominated the shot and possession count in both losses. Expected goals had them on top of Arsenal last Wednesday when they were in a clear look ahead to the FA Cup Final. One bad pass is what cost them. Chelsea has the 2nd most “expected” points in the league this year (only behind Man City) and 13 more than Leicester. It was the Foxes’ first ever FA Cup win Saturday at Wembley and I think there’s going to be a bit of a “letdown” factor for them here, despite what’s at stake. Chelsea moves into third place. 10* Chelsea |
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05-16-21 | Real Madrid -175 v. Ath Bilbao | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
7* Real Madrid (12:30 ET): I’ve “carried the flag” for Athletic Bilbao before, but the reality is that they’ve got nothing left to play for this season. Finishing in the top half of the table is a nice achievement as is being one of only eight La Liga sides with a positive YTD goal differential this campaign. They are likely to better LY’s 11th place finish, but aren’t likely to finish higher than their current spot of 9th. Having lost TWO Copa del Rey Finals in the last month (2020’s was rearranged), you’ve got to question their level of motivation heading into these final two fixtures. Meanwhile, Real Madrid has a TON left to play for. Entering Sunday, they are just two points back of table leaders Atletico Madrid. A win here and they keep their La Liga title hopes alive. There’s a chance, if Atletico loses or draws with Osasuna, that Real could go into the final week of the season on top by itself or tied for first. They are coming off a pretty dominant 4-1 win over Granada midweek, which extended their unbeaten run in the Spanish top flight to an unbelievable 16 straight. Los Blancos have been very strong on their travels this season. They also defeated Bilbao 3-1 in the reverse fixture back in December. They are unbeaten against them in La Liga action going all the way back to March 2015. While Bilbao had its own nine-match unbeaten run heading into Wednesday, a 1-0 loss to Huesca should certainly raise concerns over the aforementioned motivation level. Barcelona is way out ahead of the field on the score sheet this La Liga campaign, but Real Madrid is second with 64 goals scored and they’ve also conceded the second fewest at 27. 7* Real Madrid |
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05-16-21 | Real Valladolid v. Real Sociedad -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
8* Real Sociedad (12:30 ET): After being beaten 2-1 by table leaders Atletico Madrid midweek, Real Sociedad looks to preserve its top five status in La Liga with what looks like a very winnable match against bottom of the table Real Valladolid, who is looking to fight off relegation. These teams met in the very first fixture of the season and played to a 1-1 draw. But now we’re now looking at a sizable 25 point gap between the two with very different respective fates potentially awaiting them. Go with the favorite Sunday. It’s a steep drop in class for Sociedad compared to Wednesday’s opponent. You may recall that I faded Sociedad against Atletico, noting the latter’s sense of urgency to remain at the top of the table. While Valladolid desperately needs some sort of positive result here to increase their chances of safety, the fact is they are simply not a very good side. They were just beaten 2-0 on Thursday by a Villarreal side that’s quite comparable to Sociedad. In fact, both those clubs are currently battling it out for Europa League slots. All Sociedad has to do is finish in the top six and they automatically qualify for European football next season. They enter Sunday in fifth, but only one point ahead of both Real Betis and Villarreal. A win here is critical as it would keep them in control of their own destiny. Valladolid has the fewest number of wins (5) in all of La Liga this season, so them getting relegated would not be a surprise. Look for La Real to get all three points. 8* Real Sociedad |
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05-16-21 | Sassuolo Calcio -185 v. Parma Calcio 1913 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
7* Sassuolo (12:00 ET): Already assured of a top half finish in the Serie A table, Sassuolo still has an outside chance of Europa League qualifying for next season. They have to finish in the top seven though and yesterday’s result between Lazio and Roma, a 2-0 win by the latter, did the Neroverdi no favors. They are now five point back of Roma for 7th, but shortening that gap should not be a problem on Sunday when they face last place Parma, a side that has only three wins all season and has lost seven in a row. It sure looked as if Parma was going to end its losing streak on Wednesday as they were locked into a goalless game with Lazio entering stoppage time. But five minutes into stoppage time, they conceded the game-winner. That crushing defeat, coupled with Crotone’s surprise 2-1 over Hellas Verona on Thursday, has landed Parma in last place for the first time since X-Mas. Their relegation fate has already been sealed as they know they’ll be playing down in Serie B next season. Having come so close to a positive result, only to lose again, will be crushing for the spirit of Parma and I think they’re primed to be run off the pitch Sunday. During the seven-match losing streak, they’ve conceded three or more goals five different times. They are also tied with Benevento for the fewest number of goals scored (38) in all of Serie A. Sassuolo, who I felt outplayed Juventus in a 3-1 loss Wednesday, will be eager to bounce back from that defeat. Before that, they’d been unbeaten in six straight. Should be an easy three points here after only taking one from the reverse fixture back in January. 7* Sassuolo |
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05-16-21 | Crotone v. Benevento -198 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -198 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
6* Benevento (9:00 AM ET): We’ve got two, bottom of the table Serie A sides here, but only one (Benevento) has a shot of escaping relegation. Crotone has been at or near the bottom all campaign and their 27 losses are easily a league-high. But what I like about this one is not only that Benevento is basically in a “must-win” situation, but also that Crotone is off a VERY rare win. At no point this season have they produced B2B wins. In fact, there’s been only one time (back in December) that they’ve gone two straight w/o suffering a loss! Crotone’s surprise 2-1 win over Hellas Verona came Thursday, meaning they’ve had a shorter turnaround time compared to their opponents for Sunday. Getting two goals against Verona seemed fortunate and the one they conceded tied a rather dubious mark as they’ve now given up 91 goals this season. One more and that’s a new Serie A record. I think they’ll likely concede multiple times here. The win on Thursday allowed Crotone to escape the league basement for the first time since X-Mas, but be aware they have picked up just five points (just one win) away from home all season. Benevento, like Crotone, was a newly promoted side for 2020/21. Unlike this week’s opponent, they have a chance to remain in the Italian top flight next season. Admittedly, their recent form has been poor with only one victory in the last 20 matches. Them dropping from 10th to 18th in the table is not all that surprising when you looked at their goal differential, however they haven’t had this golden an opportunity for a win in a LONG time. A win here would pull Benevento within one point of Torino and within two of Cagliari heading into the final week of the campaign. They obviously need this one badly. 6* Benevento |
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05-16-21 | Napoli -238 v. Fiorentina | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
10* Napoli (6:30 AM ET): Napoli has seen a huge surge in price for this fixture and for good reason. A win here would not only move them into Champions League qualification, but back into second place in the Serie A table. We know that Inter has already bagged the Scudetto and will finish first. After that, it’s a four team fight for the three remaining UCL spots between Napoli, Atalanta, Juventus and AC Milan. Based on both goal differential and expected points, Napoli is a top four side in the Italian top flight. I expect them to get the full three points early Sunday against a side that has little to play for at this juncture. A dominant 5-1 win midweek over Udinese temporarily moved Napoli into second in Serie A, but the Partenopei are now back in fifth following the results of Wednesday and Saturday. But considering this side is unbeaten in its last seven, I have every reason to believe they should continue to roll Sunday. They’ve outscored their last two opponents 9-2 and are averaging the second most goals per match in the league this season. Only Inter and Atalanta have outscored their opponents by a wider margin. Fiorentina, like Napoli, has been on a bit of a roll of late. They come in unbeaten in their last five fixtures. But they haven’t been nearly as dominant with only two of those being wins. It was a goalless draw with lowly Cagliari on Wednesday, which leaves Fiorentina 13th in the table heading into the final two matches. The reverse fixture did not go well - at all - as Napoli drubbed them 6-0 at Stadio Maradona back in January. This one won’t be THAT lopsided, but Napoli is clearly better and has much more at stake. 10* Napoli |
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05-15-21 | Stuttgart v. Borussia Monchengladbach -141 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -141 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
10* Borussia Monchengladbach (9:30 AM ET): With a win here, Gladbach can clinch a top seven finish in the Bundesliga and thus have an opportunity to qualify for next season’s Europa League. After taking it on the chin last week (lost 6-0 to Bayern Munich), you’ve got to think we’re getting an inspired effort from the hosts on Saturday, given what’s at stake. Losing to the Bundesliga champs is no big deal, even if it was by a sizable margin. Recently Die Fohlen had dished out a couple of its own blowout victories - 5-0 over Arminia Bielefeld and 4-0 over Eintracht Frankfurt. So I look for the bounce back to take place. Stuttgart is probably looking at a top 10 finish, which is impressive when you consider they were a newly promoted side for this season. But before downing Augsburg 2-1 last week, Stuttgart had suffered four straight losses where they conceded multiple goals every occasion. Snapping the long losing streak was a little fortunate when you consider Stuttgart had fewer shots on goal and actually lost the expected goal battle, 2-1. Winning with a stand-in goaltender is also a bit fortunate and the backup is expected to be called into duty again Saturday. Midfielder Naouirou Ahamada is out w/ a red card and two other attackers are injured for Stuttgart. It’s going to be a patchwork starting XI this week. Meanwhile, for Gladbach, things weren’t really as bad as the final score made it out to be last week. They just got caught in the wrong place at the wrong time against the wrong opponent. I again point to the fact that it wasn’t that long ago Gladbach smashed top five Eintracht Frankfurt by a four goal margin. With 8th place Union Berlin level on points with them, but facing Leverkusen this week and Leipzig next, this is a golden opportunity for Gladbach to secure its place in European football next season. 10* Borussia Monchengladbach |
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05-12-21 | Real Sociedad v. Atletico Madrid -156 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
9* Atletico Madrid (4:00 ET): By the time this fixture takes place, Atletico Madrid could find itself out of first place in the La Liga table. That’s dependent on Barcelona’s result Tuesday vs. Levante. Given that Barca is such an overwhelming favorite (almost 5/1!), you’d expect them to gain the full three points. If so, they’d move one ahead of Atletico, who still has three left to play. Having been at the top of the table most of this season, anything short of finishing first will be viewed as a massive disappointment for Atletico. That makes Wednesday’s clash with top five hopeful Real Sociedad that much more important. It was a 0-0 draw Saturday between Atletico and Barca, thus preserving the former’s two point edge in the standings. Note Real Madrid is also just two points back entering the week. It has been some shaky play down the stretch from Atletico as they’ve picked up just 15 points from the L9 league fixtures. But they’ve still got the most wins in all of La Liga (23) while conceding - by far - the fewest number of goals (22). Saturday’s was the club’s 18th clean sheet as they go for their 1st La Liga trophy since 2014. The top four is out of reach for Real Sociedad, but as I mentioned Friday, they can still gain a spot in next year’s Europa League by finishing in the top six. Fifth is where they are currently at following an easy 2-0 win over Elche, a spot where I backed them. But there’s a big difference in facing the side I consider to be the worst in all of La Liga (Elche) and the one that’s led most of the season. Sociedad was actually tied 0-0 (despite Elche playing with only 10 men) until breaking through in the 72nd minute and then added another in stoppage time. Atletico won the reverse fixture (2-0) back in December and I see them making it a league double on Wednesday. 9* Atletico Madrid |
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05-09-21 | AC Milan v. Juventus -125 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
10* Juventus (2:45 ET): The Scudetto has already been decided (congrats to Inter Milan), but the three remaining Champions League spots in Serie A are still to be determined. Here, we’ve got a battle of top five teams in the table on Sunday as Juventus hosts AC Milan. While Juve’s nine-year run as Serie A champs has officially come to end, they are actually #1 in expected points this campaign, slightly ahead of Inter. The importance of this match really can’t be understated as one point currently separates second from fifth in the Serie A table. I like Juve to get the full three today. While both of these sides come in with the same number of actual points (69), expected points tell a different story. I already mentioned that Juve is #1 in all of Serie A in expected points (w/ 72) and there’s a decided gap between them and Milan (59). I’d say Inter, Juve and Atalanta are clearly the three best teams in the league and likely to finish 1-2-3. The race for the fourth spot should come down to Milan and Napoli, who won for me yesterday (4-1) over Spezia. The reverse fixture back in January was won by Juve, 3-1, in San Siro. The former nine-time champs have been pretty dominant on home soil this season, taking the maximum points on 13 of 17 occasions. Only Inter has been more successful at home. AC Milan has lost nine straight times here and overall they’ve been fading in 2021, getting ousted in the Europa League by Manchester United and most of their wins in the Italian top flight coming against bottom of the table sides. They’d dropped B2B games before a 2-0 win over Benevento last week. Thanks to Cristiano Ronaldo scoring twice, Juve was able to come back against underrated Udinese last week. Ronaldo has now scored multiple goals in nine different matches this season. 10* Juventus |
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05-08-21 | Bayer Leverkusen -116 v. SV Werder Bremen | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Bayer Leverkusen (9:30 AM ET): Two sides with very different goals meet Saturday on the pitch as slumping Werder Bremen hosts top six Bayer Leverkusen. I’m quite shocked at the cheap price on the visitors here. Werder Bremen has lost seven straight in the Bundesliga and is now in grave danger of falling into the relegation playoff for a second straight year, or even worse. They are just one point clear of safety after Hertha Berlin won on Thursday. As badly as Bremen needs points right now, I don’t see them getting any Saturday as Leverkusen looks to cement their spot in the top six of the table. By finishing in the top six, Leverkusen would earn a chance to play European football next season in Europa League qualification. Under new manager Hannes Wolf, they have earned 10 points out of possible 15. The only loss in those five fixtures was to Bayern Munich and there’s no shame there. Prior to last week’s break, Leverkusen bounced back from that loss with a very solid 3-1 win over top four Eintracht Frankfurt. They’ve played two other bottom of the table sides under Wolf (Koln and Schalke) and won both with a 5-1 goal advantage. Even stepping outside Bundesliga action could not right the ship for Werder Bremen last week. While Leverkusen was on break, Bremen lost 2-1 in the DFB-Pokal semi final to RB Leipzig in extra time. They’ve now lost eight of nine across all competitions, including the aforementioned 0-7 run in the Bundesliga. The last time Bremen beat a team in the German top flight was 3/10, a 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld, another side in danger of being relegated. That was also the last time they scored more than one goal in any fixture. Having played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture (back in January), Leverkusen will not be taking this one lightly. 10* Bayer Leverkusen |
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05-08-21 | Napoli -189 v. Spezia Calcio | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
6* Napoli (9:00 AM ET): After failing to take all three points from Cagliari, Napoli looks to bounce back and continue their pursuit of a top four finish in Serie A. Giving up a (very) late equalizer last week proved very costly as two points is now the difference between Napoli and the three sides they are chasing for Champions League qualification. But having scored at least one goal in 22 consecutive matches and unbeaten in their last five, there’s no reason for the Partenopei to panic. This week they’ll be facing Spezia, another bottom of the table side, and I don’t see the full three points slipping through their fingers again. A newly promoted side for 2020/21, Spezia looked as if it would easily remain in the Italian top flight with a decent start to the campaign. But recently they’ve fallen on hard times. Winless in their last four, they’ve earned just five points since the start of April and that’s left them dangerously close to the relegation zone entering the stretch run. Currently, they are only three points clear. But the final four fixtures of the season won’t be easy, meaning it will be a tough battle with Benevento and Cagliari to see who is the third relegated Serie A side (alongside Parma and Crotone). Spezia is unbeaten in its last six home matches, but I don’t see that streak lasting any longer. Yes, the Bianconeri did win the reverse fixture 2-1 back in January, but it was a much different story in the Coppa Italia (4-2) only a few weeks later. Spezia pulling off a “Serie A double” seems highly improbable given Napoli’s scoring punch. Napoli has also won six of the last seven head to head battles with Spezia. Over their last 11 fixtures, Napoli has been beaten only once and that was by nine-time champion Juventus. They’ve won eight. Only Atalanta has scored more goals this season. Should be an easy one for the visitors. 6* Napoli |
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05-07-21 | Elche v. Real Sociedad -178 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 49 h 53 m | Show |
8* Real Sociedad (3:00 ET): So we’ve got a side trying to finish in the top five taking on a side trying to escape relegation here. The former is Real Sociedad, who suffered a bit of a head-scratching 1-0 defeat to Huesca last week on an own-goal. They are still fifth in the table, with no chance to finish fourth (17 point difference), but both Villarreal and Real Betis are hot on the 2020 Copa Del Rey Champions’ heels (just one and two points back, respectively). Sociedad doesn’t dare blow a second opportunity to pick up three points at the expense of a bottom of the table side and I’ll go with them here at home. The drama over who finishes fifth (and qualifies for the Europa League) in La Liga actually pales in comparison to what’s going on at the bottom of the table. The fight to avoid relegation sees just five points separating the bottom five sides. In the mix is Elche, in 19th place, but only a win away from safety. While Elche has played decent football the last two weeks, beating Levante 1-0 and losing by the same score to 1st place Atletico Madrid, Understat still has them with the fewest number of “expected points” in all of La Liga. Their -21 goal differential is second worst in the league. I can see them getting relegated. A big reason for this play is that no other La Liga side has been worse on their travels than Elche, who has picked up only 10 points from 17 away matches this season. In terms of expected goals scored and allowed, they are the worst in the league in both categories. Real Sociedad has been a solid home team for most of the campaign and this is among the easiest fixtures. They won the reverse 3-0 back in September. Like I said at the outset, Sociedad can’t have a second straight miss on the full three (points). 8* Real Sociedad |
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05-03-21 | Parma Calcio 1913 v. Torino -164 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
8* Torino (2:45 ET): Still fighting off the prospect of relegation, Torino is a club due a better fate. They’ve got a better YTD goal differential than the four sides directly ahead of them in the table. Understat has their expected point total at 39, which would have them 13th. But the reality of the matter is they’ve had poor luck throughout the Serie A campaign, are tied for 17th and only technically safe (from relegation) based on GD. Cagliari’s late goal against Napoli on Sunday did them no favors, but a win today could go a long way to bring Il Toro to safety as it would bring them three points clear and ahead of Cagliari. Parma’s fate is basically sealed at this point. They are 11 points adrift of safety and following a 4-3 loss to bottom of the table Crotone last week, Parma will almost certainly be heading back to Serie B next season. Four straight losses have all but guaranteed their relegation after three straight years in the Italian top flight. They were a middle of the table side in 2019/20, but this season has seen them score a league-low 36 goals while conceding the second most times (70). Only Crotone, who beat them last week, has a worse YTD goal differential. Parma has the fewest number of wins in Serie A (3) this season. Incredibly, Parma has earned just 11 points against sides currently in the bottom half of the table this season. That’s easily the fewest - by six - in the entire league. Torino beat them 3-0 in the reverse fixture and has been playing better at home recently. Though it was a 2-0 loss to Napoli last week, prior to that Torino had an unbeaten run of three matches, which included wins over Roma and Udinese. Parma will deal with multiple absences Monday and this is honestly as winnable a match as Torino has had all season long. They are underpriced. 8* Torino |
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04-29-21 | Roma v. Manchester United -170 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 49 h 48 m | Show |
7* Manchester United (3:00 ET): This may finally be the year that a trophy is lifted by Manchester United. No, they aren’t going to win the Premier League (10 points back of Man City), but they are the favorites to win the Europa League, a competition where they’ve done quite well in the past. This year’s run, in particular, has been quite impressive. They’ve eliminated La Liga’s Real Sociedad and Granada both 4-0 on aggregate and in between got rid of Serie A side AC Milan. For this Europa League semi final matchup, it’s another Italian side, AS Roma, whose recent form couldn’t be worse coming into this one. Roma is winless in its last four across all competitions, including perhaps its most embarrassing loss of the Serie A season on Sunday as they fell 3-2 to a Cagliari side that may end up being relegated. The recent downturn has Roma off the pace to play European football next season. Not only have they lost two of three to bottom of the table Serie A sides, but it was a 1-1 draw against Ajax Amsterdam the last time we saw them here in the Europa League. While that was still good enough to allow Roma to progress 3-2 on aggregate, the semis will be a giant step up in class. Manchester United, who is looking to finish off an unbeaten April across all competitions, is working on a six-match unbeaten streak coming into this one. They are also unbeaten in their last 17 home matches in the Europa League, winning 13. While United has infamously flamed out in multiple past semifinals since the start of last year, Roma has not been to a final in European football in 30 years. Roma has just one win in England in their last 17 tries, including 10 losses. They’ve won just one of their last eight Serie A matches on the road and I don’t see them being successful today at Old Trafford. 7* Manchester United |
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04-28-21 | Real Valladolid v. Ath Bilbao -114 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
10* Athletic Bilbao (1:00 ET): Two La Liga sides desperate for a win - albeit for different reasons - clash midweek as Athletic Bilbao hosts Real Valladolid. Bilbao is fresh off a surprise 2-1 victory over table leaders Atletico Madrid. While Atletico has been in a recent slump, Bilbao gladly took the three points as it ended an ugly winless run that spanned eight straight across all competitions. Still though, Bilbao sits in 10th in the table, with a +7 YTD goal differential, and can surpass two teams with another win on Wednesday. I feel this is a fairly underrated La Liga side, one that deserves to finish higher in the table. Meanwhile, Real Valladolid continues to feel the heat of relegation as they could only manage a 1-1 draw with Cadiz over the weekend. Their winless run has now hit six and they now sit in 18th place, which would mean they are out of the Spanish top flight for next season. However, only one point separates them from safety, so you have to figure they’ll come into today properly motivated. Problem is there’s nothing in Valladolid’s recent form to suggest they are in line to pick up a win here. They have just two road wins the entire season and only one win of any kind in their previous 15 fixtures. Furthermore, Bilbao have been tough on their home turf this season. They are unbeaten in their last seven here and have failed to score only once. The last time Valladolid picked up an away victory over Bilbao was the 2003-04 season! While Bilbao had been winless in eight straight fixtures prior to the last time out, it is also true that they are unbeaten in the last six here in La Liga as they played to five consecutive draws before beating Atletico 2-1. They are “due” for another win as they try and get back in striking distance of Europa League qualification. They’ve also got revenge for a 2-1 loss in the reverse fixture back in November. 10* Athletic Bilbao |
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04-27-21 | Chelsea v. Real Madrid UNDER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
10* Under Chelsea/Real Madrid (3:00 ET): It was back on January 26th that Chelsea hired Thomas Tuchel to be its new coach, replacing Frank Lampard, and save its floundering 2020-21 campaign. The Blues spent a lot of money in the offseason and floundering in the middle of the Premier League table is not where they felt they belonged. Sure enough, Tuchel has turned things around by guiding Chelsea up to 4th place in the EPL standings. A top four finish and Champions League qualification is very much in play for them at this point. Of course, there is also the matter of winning THIS year’s Champions League. Since Tuchel took over, Chelsea matches have become incredibly low-scoring. Of the 21 total, both domestic and European, 18 have seen two or fewer total goals scored. They have allowed multiple goals just once under Tuchel with an average of 0.7 expected goals per match. 1-0 wins have become rather commonplace and that was the final score when they beat West Ham over the weekend. That was the club’s third consecutive clean sheet (shutout) as well. Here in the Champions League, there were just three combined goals scored in the two legs of the quarter final with FC Porto. Semifinal opponent Real Madrid, like Chelsea, is still wiping the egg off its face over the Super League implosion. Then there was a disappointing 0-0 draw with Real Betis in La Liga play over the weekend. Embarrassment and disappointment aside, Los Blancos have now turned in four consecutive clean sheets and have never allowed more than one goal in a current 17-match unbeaten run! The thing is, three of their last four fixtures (including the second leg of the CL quarters vs. Liverpool) have been goalless draws. Goals should be especially hard to come by in this first leg of the semis and I’ll take the Under. 10* Under Chelsea/Real Madrid |
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04-25-21 | Barcelona FC -149 v. Villarreal | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 19 m | Show |
10* Barcelona (10:15 AM ET): In stark contrast to the other three major European football leagues, the top four has long been decided in La Liga. We know who is getting the Champions League spots, however the precise order of finish is very much “up in the air” between Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Sevilla. Just six points separate the four sides. First place Atletico got off to such a red hot start and has largely overachieved most of the way. But with them cooling off a bit recently and second place Real Madrid playing to a draw (w/ Real Betis) on Saturday, the door is still open for Barcelona, who has the best goal differential (+43) and expected point total in the league. I really like Barca to handle its business on Sunday as they face seventh place Villarreal. Now I very much respect what Villarreal is capable of, and normally would NOT be looking to fade them here. However, they have the Europa League semi-final vs. Arsenal this Thursday. Normally, I’d look at the fact they are just one point out of fifth in the La Liga table and say they have similar motivation to Barca. But if the Yellow Submarine can win the Europa League, then finishing fifth is no longer a concern. They just lost Wednesday, 2-1 to Alaves, which was the second loss in the last three fixtures. Barcelona buried Getafe 5-2 on Wednesday. They have, by far, scored the most goals in all of La Liga this season with 74 (Atletico is 2nd with 59). It was a 4-0 win over Villareal in the reverse fixture back in September. Their form is every bit as good now as they’ve won five of their last six here in the Spanish top flight and scored four or more goals in four of those five victories. I will not be surprised if Barca ends up finishing first in the table this year. 10* Barcelona |
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04-25-21 | Juventus -180 v. Fiorentina | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -180 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
7* Juventus (9:00 AM ET): It would appear as if Juve’s nine year run atop Serie A is going to end this season. They are currently 11 points back of first place Inter Milan entering Sunday and barely hanging on to a Champions League spot. Behind Inter, only three points separate second from fifth in the Serie A table and right now Juve finds itself tied with Atalanta for third (65 points). However, surging Napoli (who I just won w/ Thursday) is lurking, only two points behind. Of course, there’s been just as much drama “off the pitch” with the catastrophic Super League failure that Juve was a part of. But with that behind them (for the time being), they can now go and focus on finishing in the top four. The irony of this being the season Juventus fails to finish in first is that their expected point total happens to the best in all of Serie A. That particular metric says they, Inter and Atalanta are the clear class of this league, which I won’t disagree with. Juve looked rather impressive in its most recent fixture, a 3-1 win over bottom side Parma. It was their third win in their last four matches, the lone loss being a critical one, where I did successfully fade them against Atalanta. Fiorentina is also coming off a win midweek as they downed Hellas Verona by a score of 2-1. However, they’d previously dropped three of four and are still just five points clear of the relegation zone. Fiorentina, who has won just two of its last 10 league games, owned just ⅓ of the possession time against Verona on Tuesday. This is a big time revenge spot for Juve, who was shocked 3-0 in the reverse fixture back in December. Not only has Fiorentina failed to win B2B matches at any point in 2020-21, they haven’t pulled a double over Juve since 1968-69. Juve is the much better side and needs the full three badly. 7* Juventus |
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04-24-21 | Brighton & Hove Albion -128 v. Sheffield United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -128 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
10* Brighton & Hove Albion (3:00 ET): In terms of expected points vs. reality, Brighton & Hove Albion has to be considered the unluckiest team in all of the Premier League this season. The reality is that they currently sit 16th in the table, only seven points clear of relegation. That’s a really tough lot for a club whose “expected” point total is 52.97, which is actually FIFTH best in the whole EPL and nearly 19 points higher than their actual total. Not to mention their YTD goal differential (-5) is better than the four teams directly ahead of them in the table. But getting to face an already relegated side this week, it should be an easy three points for Brighton as they inch closer to safety. Last week’s 1-0 loss to Wolverhampton (which I called) assured last place Sheffield United a fate we all knew was coming -- relegation. In terms of number of matches played, it equaled the fastest relegation for any side in Premier League history. At one point, it looked as if they might set a new EPL record for fewest points in a season. They avoided that, but not relegation as last week’s loss was their fifth in a row and 26th this campaign (eight more than the next worst team). United has scored only 17 goals all season (in 32 matches) and has now been kept clean a shocking 18 different times, including last week. Coming off back to back goalless draws, Brighton clearly knows what it’s like to not score as well. But they should break out here against the second worst defensive side in the entire EPL. United has kept only two clean sheets all season. Brighton has actually kept three clean sheets in their previous four fixtures. The two straight 0-0 draws aren’t all bad as they came against a pair of top eight sides (Chelsea & Everton). This should be among the easiest three points of the season for Brighton as Sheffield has no motivation left after being assured of relegation. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion |
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04-22-21 | Lazio v. Napoli +106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 106 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
10* Napoli (2:30 ET): In the race for the four Champions League spots in Serie A, the “dropoff” (in terms of points) seems to be around eight or ninth place. Beyond that, no club has a realistic shot of catching the current top four. However, goal differential paints a narrower picture with just five teams well ahead of the pack. Currently in fifth is Napoli with 60 points and a GD of +31. Right behind them (in sixth) is Lazio, last season’s overachievers, with 58 points but a GD of only +10. I think that this match Thursday is an excellent chance for the home side (Napoli) to put some distance between them and their fellow competitors. Napoli’s GD is right on par with the teams they are chasing. While they are not going to catch Inter Milan for the Scudetto (no one is), finishing second in Serie A is within reach for the Partenopei. Second place Milan (66 points) lost Wednesday and both third place Juventus and fourth place Atalanta have very similar YTD goal differentials (+35 and +34). Napoli trails those clubs by five and four points respectively. They have a much better GD than Milan’s +22 and a higher expected point total as well. Over the past two months, the only Serie A side with fewer defeats than Napoli is Inter, who they just played to a 1-1 draw last week. Lazio is also in good form, having won five on the bounce in Serie A. But that good form is an obvious byproduct of facing weak competition. Last week’s wild 5-3 win over floundering Benevento was yet another win over a bottom of the table side. They’ve also previously beaten Verona, Spezia, Udinese and Crotone - all by one goal apiece. It was a stoppage time goal that beat Verona 1-0 two weeks ago. Other than that, every team Lazio has beaten during the current win streak is currently 12th or lower in the table. Napoli has revenge here for a 2-0 loss in the reverse fixture back in December. They’ll get it. 10* Napoli. |
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04-21-21 | Union Berlin v. Borussia Dortmund -178 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 51 h 42 m | Show |
7* Borussia Dortmund (2:30 ET): To some, the price may seem surprisingly high on Borussia Dortmund. After all, Union Berlin isn’t too far behind (just six points back) as they have their own hopes of playing European football next season. But Dortmund, whose form certainly slipped about a month ago, is seemingly in the midst of a resurgence with B2B Bundesliga wins. After recently being eliminated from this year’s Champions League, BVB can qualify again with a strong finish. They enter the day five points behind fourth place Wolfsburg and desperately need three points to keep pace. Union Berlin, now tied for seventh, ended a three-match winless run with a 2-0 win against Stuttgart over the weekend. They have never even qualified for the Europa League, so a fifth place finish would be considered a monumental achievement for the club. Keep in mind that FCUB had never even competed at the top level of German football prior to last season. So to even be in seventh, just one year after being promoted, is an achievement of its own. They’ve only lost six times this entire Bundesliga campaign! The reverse fixture, back in January, saw FCUB emerge victorious by a score of 2-1. But since that time, they have just one win over a team currently in the top seven and that was 1-0 over Leverkusen. Those two are the ONLY wins they have against top seven sides all season. Pulling off a “Dortmund double” seems far-fetched from where I sit, especially with BVB coming off a very impressive 4-1 win over Werder Bremen. Erling Haaland is the best player on the pitch almost every time he steps on it. 7* Borussia Dortmund |
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04-21-21 | Sevilla -139 v. Levante | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 49 h 13 m | Show |
8* Sevilla FC (1:00 ET): With Champions League qualification all but wrapped up, Sevilla can now turn its eye to an even bigger prize. The hottest side in all of La Liga is just six points out of first place and three behind second entering Wednesday’s clash with Levante. Unbeaten in their last seven across all competitions, a sixth win in their last seven would match table leaders Atletico Madrid for the most wins in all of La Liga this season. It could also potentially draw Las Palanganas level with Real Madrid for second by day’s end. Last time out, Sevilla came from behind to defeat 5th place Real Sociedad 2-1. After conceding in the opening five minutes, they tied the game and took the lead within a three minute span. It was the second straight come from behind victory as they defeated Celta Vigo 4-3 two weeks ago. But what’s impressive here is that three of their past five victories have come against sides in the top seven of the La Liga table. Though still in the top half of the table themselves, Levante has been really inconsistent down the stretch. They’ve dropped four of six and last week’s 5-1 loss to Villarreal was the worst result of the bunch. Goal scoring has been an issue with only three total in those six matches. One would have to go all the way back to late February, a span of nine matches, to find the last time Levante scored more than one goal. The reverse fixture against Sevilla back in October was a 1-0 loss. 8* Sevilla FC |
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04-21-21 | Southampton v. Tottenham Hotspur -120 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 49 h 51 m | Show |
9* Tottenham Hotspur (1:00 ET): With all the drama surrounding Tottenham right now, they better come up with the full three points on Wednesday. On top of their recent middling form, the Spurs sacked manager Jose Mourinho and are a part of the big controversy over in Europe right now, that being the mass exodus to the proposed European Super League. But I’m not ready to give up on this side being able to finish in the top four in what could be their final season in the Premier League. Look for them to get the old “new manager bounce” when they play host to Southampton in this one. With so much controversy currently circling around Tottenham Hotspur, it would be easy to forget that Southampton was just eliminated from the FA Cup with a 1-0 semifinal loss to Leicester City over the weekend. That about does it for the Saints’ motivation this season. They’ve lost 11 of their last 14 Premier League fixtures and are virtually guaranteed a bottom half finish in the table this season. They’re not really in danger of relegation though (nine points clear), so again it’s difficult to find where the motivation comes from this final month of the campaign. No team has fewer points since the turn of the year than Southampton’s 10. Not saying it will be easy here Tottenham Hotspur in their first match under interim boss Ryan Mason. The club is winless in its last three EPL fixtures and won’t have top goal scorer Harry Kane. Six days from now the Spurs will seek to end their trophy drought in the EFL Cup Final. But if the players have any sense of pride, they’ll rise up here and get the win at home as they attempt to draw nearer to fourth place West Ham, who is currently up five points. They defeated Southampton 5-2 in the reverse fixture back in September. 9* Tottenham Hotspur |
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04-20-21 | Schalke 04 v. Arminia Bielefeld -124 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
10* Arminia Bielefeld (2:30 ET): While it may seem strange to select a match between two bottom of the table sides as our biggest Bundesliga release of the month, this one has major implications for Bielefeld as they try to remain in the German top flight next year. Having gone unbeaten in their last three, last season’s Bundesliga 2 champs are now one point clear of the relegation playoff and four clear of automatic relegation. The cause has certainly been helped by the fact that Hertha Berlin, the team directly below them, has been on pause due to COVID-19. Three points here would be HUGE and Bielefeld couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent Tuesday. Schalke has just 15 points to play for this season and they are 14 points back of safety. So unless they win out and the three teams above them all lose out, their relegation fate is all but sealed. Considering this side has just TWO wins this entire Bundesliga campaign, the idea of winning out seems downright laughable. There was a rare 1-0 win (over Augsburg) two weeks ago, but coming off that I couldn’t wait to fade Schalke on Saturday. Sure enough, they were beaten badly in a 4-0 defeat. As was the case Saturday, this price is shockingly cheap to go against the last place team in the table, on the road no less. Schalke’s YTD goal differential now sits at an abhorrent -57, more than twice as bad as the next worst team (Koln is -26). They have 10 fewer points than 17th place Koln. Relegation is inevitable. That’s not the case though for Bielefeld, who won the reverse fixture 1-0 back in December. Making matters even worse for Schalke is that they’ll be without a number of first team regulars here. The team they field Tuesday will be about as bad as it gets in this league. 10* Arminia Bielefeld. |
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04-18-21 | Real Madrid -137 v. Getafe CF | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -137 | 48 h 44 m | Show |
10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Compared to the other three “big” European leagues (EPL, Bundesliga, Serie A), first place in La Liga is very much up for grabs. Atletico Madrid has led most of the way, thanks to a dominant start to the campaign. But they’ve been far less dominant over the last couple months and that has opened the door for both Real Madrid and Barcelona to inch closer to the top. Real Madrid will be looking to make it five straight victories here in the Spanish top flight as they pay a visit to Getafe on Sunday. This should be an easy three points and by the end of the day, Los Blancos could find itself first in the table. Now Real Madrid is not at full strength here (injuries and suspensions) and must avoid a hangover from their advancement to the Champions League semi finals. Wednesday’s 0-0 draw with Liverpool was enough to get by on aggregate as Los Blancos took the first leg, 3-1. In between the two legs, they picked up another significant win, 2-1 over rival Barca in El Clasico. Prior to the goalless draw at Anfield on Wednesday, Real Madrid had won six straight across all competitions. While Getafe has been a much tougher “out” at home as opposed to their travels this season, they have not beaten Real Madrid in La Liga action since 2008! Furthermore, they haven’t even scored a single goal in any of the last three fixtures. This season’s reverse ended up 2-0. Entering Sunday, Getafe sits 15th in the table and is only four points clear of the relegation zone. While a win (or even a draw) would do them wonders, I just don’t see it as they are simply not in the same class as the second place side (and now Champions League semi finalists). 10* Real Madrid |
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04-17-21 | Sheffield United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers -139 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
8* Wolverhampton (3:00 ET): The Wolves are having a pretty disappointing Premier League campaign. They currently sit 12th in the table. But a late goal enabled them to take the full three from Fulham last week and now they’ve got a golden opportunity to make it back to back wins for just the third time in 2020-21.This one is especially important to them as they’ve lost two in a row here at home. One would have to go all the way back to 2018 to find the last time the Wolves dropped three straight at Molineux. The opposition this week is last place Sheffield United, so I don’t think Wolves’ fans need to worry about matching that dubious mark. United, whose relegation is all but confirmed at this point, has turned in an absolutely dreadful campaign. At one point, it seemed as if they might set the Premier League record for fewest points in a season. That’s not going to happen, but they still have 10 fewer points than 19th place West Brom and are 18 adrift from where they’d need to be to avoid relegation. Making up that gap isn’t going to happen. Over the previous four fixtures, all losses, United has produced a goal differential of -11 as they’ve conceded 12 times while scoring only one goal of their own. On their travels this season, they have incredibly picked up just four points (out of a possible 45!) while scoring only seven goals in the process! So things are rather dire here. For the Wolves, the 1-0 win over Fulham snapped a five-match winless run. But the previous two home defeats came against Liverpool and West Ham, both of whom are top six sides right now. United is obviously at the opposite end of the spectrum and they are also winless in their last seven trips to Molineux. The reverse fixture was 2-0 back in September and I’m looking for a similar result Saturday. 8* Wolverhampton |
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04-17-21 | Schalke 04 v. SC Freiburg -134 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
8* Freiburg (9:30 AM ET): Something happened last week that had occurred only one other time during this entire Bundesliga campaign. Schalke actually won a match. Now the club’s second win of the season isn’t about to save them from relegation. The last place team in the table has only 13 points (10 fewer than the next worst team) and a -53 goal differential. To put that GD in perspective, the second worst (GD) in the Bundesliga is Arminia Bielefeld’s -24. There is a good chance that Schalke’s impending relegation fate will be officially sealed by this weekend (to be determined by results elsewhere). I think being off a win sets Schalke up as a clear fade on Saturday as they visit Freiburg. Given how poorly Schalke’s season has gone, it seems downright shocking that the price is so cheap here to go against them on the road. Now Freiburg is dealing with some injuries, but this middle of the table side still has more than enough to get the full three points here. Now I know they’ve lost four of five overall. But that should only serve to have them extra motivated for this very winnable match, especially on the heels of a BRUTAL 1-0 loss to Bielefeld where an own-goal was the difference maker. Despite the recent poor form, Freiburg is very much a “middle of the table” side and should remain there by season’s end. A win here could actually move them up into a 7th place tie, depending what else happens on Saturday. The idea that Schalke would win two in a row seems almost ludicrous seeing as they’ve haven’t gone two straight w/o losing at least one time since November! The reverse fixture, played back in December, was 2-0 Freiburg. 8* Freiburg |
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04-15-21 | Arsenal -130 v. Slavia Praha | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
10* Arsenal (3:00 ET): The first leg of this quarterfinal was a 1-1 draw as Slavia Prague was able to get a stoppage time equalizer after Arsenal opened the scoring in the 86th minute and seemingly had the match won. That precious away goal by Slavia puts some pressure on the Gunners here as they will now need either a win here or a draw with at least two goals scored. I believe they are likely to get the win against their overmatched opponent the second time around. Now I’m not saying it will be easy as Slavia Prague is unbeaten in its last 23 matches across all competitions and has yet to lose here at home this season. They have 11 wins and two draws here in Prague, although it should be pointed out that both times they failed to win, it was against an English side. Arsenal is unbeaten in its last six away matches, including a 3-0 win at Sheffield United over the weekend where they looked especially dominant. Now Sheffield United is the last place side in the Premier League and nowhere near the test that Slavia Prague will be. But keep in mind the Czech side, as dominant as they’ve been, does not face the caliber of competition that Arsenal regularly faces in the EPL. Because they are 9th in the EPL table with little chance of catching the top five, winning this year’s Europa League seems like the only viable path for the Gunners to continue their streak of playing European football next season. I like them to get it done (today). 10* Arsenal |
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04-11-21 | Atalanta -179 v. Fiorentina | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
10* Atalanta (2:45 ET): A huge 10-point gap exists between 7th and 8th place in the Serie A table. However, to me, the “real dividing line” is between 5th and 6th. The top five can all claim a vastly superior YTD goal differential compared to the rest of the field. Atalanta is among the top five, currently fourth, in what is shaping up to be a tight Champions League race (top four qualify). Atalanta’s domestic form has been strong of late as they come into Sunday having won six of their last seven Serie A fixtures. Fiorentina is eight points clear of relegation, but sitting in 15th place there’s not much to play for the rest of the way. Finishing in the top half seems unlikely and recent form doesn’t suggest such a run is even conceivable at this point. The Tuscan side has picked up only five points from its last six matches. They’ve got just one win during that stretch, although they did play to a 1-1 draw with Genoa before the last International Break. Furthermore, Fiorentina has recorded the second fewest points against sides in the top half of the table this campaign. Only last place Crotone has fewer. Atalanta won the reverse fixture 3-0 and is coming off another high-scoring effort, 3-2 over Udinese, which really wasn’t that close. With fifth place Napoli only two points back, Atalanta can’t afford a letdown here. Best case, they could move into third (past Juventus) with a win Sunday. They are tied w/ Juve for the second best GD in Serie A (+32) and I very much believe La Dea could end up finishing as high as second when all is said and done. They are tied with 1st place Inter for most goals scored this season (68). 10* Atalanta |
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04-11-21 | Osasuna v. Villarreal -143 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Villareal (8:00 AM ET): The top four is probably out of reach for Villareal. However, they are still in a three-way tie for fifth. If they can finish in fifth, that still means European football next season (Europa League). Recent form has been great as they’ll be looking to make it seven straight wins across all competitions on Sunday. They are coming off a win in this year’s Europa League, 1-0 over Dinamo Zagreb Thursday, in the first leg of their quarterfinal tie. All signs point them getting the full three points here. Osasuna is at the other end of the La Liga table, just trying to avoid relegation. Currently, they are five points clear and in 14th place. Each of their last fixtures have ended 0-0. Those were against Getafe, Huesca and Real Valladolid, all fellow bottom half sides. Osasuna has actually gone four consecutive matches without scoring as they lost 2-0 to Barcelona prior to the three draws. Incredibly, they’ve scored just ONE goal in the previous six fixtures and there’s been just one time in the L10 they’ve scored more than one time. Only two sides have scored fewer goals this season than Osasuna’s 23. That’s across 29 matches, by the way. Villareal has scored 42, fifth most. The Yellow Submarine won the reverse fixture 3-1 back in December. They’ve conceded only twice during the six-match win streak. It’s an 8-2 scoring edge across the last three La Liga fixtures. 8* Villareal |
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04-10-21 | Chelsea -179 v. Crystal Palace | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
10* Chelsea (12:30 ET): Fresh off an impressive win in the 1st leg of their Champions League quarterfinal, Chelsea will look to get back on track on the domestic side of things Saturday at Crystal Palace. The Blues currently sit in 5th place in the Premier League table, one point out of the top four. The reason they are no longer in the coveted top four is because of an absolutely embarrassing loss they took last weekend at the hands of bottom three West Brom. Based on what I saw Wednesday, I’m willing to chalk that up as an aberration and will call for them to get the full three points here against a side in the bottom half of the table. Crystal Palace is pretty safe when it comes to remaining in the English top flight for next season. They currently sit in 12th place and are 12 points clear of the relegation zone. However, only four clubs have a worse YTD goal differential than CP’s -16. They’ve won only one time in their last five matches, drawing three, including 1-1 against Everton on Monday. It’s a relatively short turnaround here for them, although not as short compared to Chelsea, who recorded its 2-0 win over FC Porto in the Champions League on Wednesday. Still, despite the shorter turnaround, Chelsea remains the clearly stronger side in this matchup. It’s not just that they’re chasing the top four, other sides such as Liverpool and Tottenham are hot on their heels. So a win here is a real must. They had no problem with Crystal Palace in the reverse fixture, winning 4-0 at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season. Only 1st place Man City has conceded fewer goals this campaign than Chelsea, so I’ll reiterate that the shocking loss (5-2!) to West Brom last week was a total aberration. 10* Chelsea |
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04-07-21 | Paris Saint-Germain v. Bayern Munich -152 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -152 | 377 h 54 m | Show |
10* Bayern Munich (3:00 ET): So the big story heading into the 1st leg of this Champions League quarterfinal is that Bayern Munich, the reigning champions of Europe, will be without their best player Robert Lewandowski due to a strained knee ligament. Lewandowski’s absence from the pitch will certainly loom large here. However, as we’ve seen throughout their march to a 9th straight Bundesliga title, Bayern doesn’t necessarily NEED their best player to defeat a top European side. Over the weekend, minus Lewandowski, they defeated the second place team in the Bundesliga (RB Leipzig) by a score of 1-0. The recent form of Paris Saint-Germain, the perennial French powerhouse, has been a lot less inspiring. While Bayern Munich has won seven straight across all competitions - including a 6-2 aggregate over Lazio in the Champions League Round of 16 - PSG has been stumbling over in Ligue 1. They’ve failed to win three of their last five domestic fixtures and just took a 1-0 loss in their weekend showdown with Lille, thus ceding the top spot in the table. The shocking 4-1 win over Barcelona in the 1st leg of the Round of 16 here in the Champions League does deserve praise. But it also feels like an outlier performance. The second leg resulted in a 1-1 draw. Bayern Munich doesn’t only dominate the Bundesliga. They are also on a 19-match unbeaten run here in the Champions League with 18 of those being victories (one draw). Of course, they defeated PSG in last year’s Final, 1-0. Considering Bayern has scored a goal in 63 consecutive matches, I say they find a way to score without Lewandowski on Wednesday. That they’ve kept two consecutive clean sheets may be more significant. PSG is also dealing with a couple key absences right now and I see Bayern taking this first leg at home, a place where they have not lost - to ANYONE - in over a year. 10* Bayern Munich |
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04-04-21 | Tottenham Hotspur -139 v. Newcastle United | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -139 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10* Tottenham Hotspur (9:05 ET): Two weeks ago, before the international break, the Spurs were victorious against Aston Villa. That 2-0 clean sheet vaulted them into sixth in the Premier League table, three points back of Champions League qualification. They are now down in seventh after Liverpool won Saturday, but not all yday’s news was bad as 4th place Chelsea suffered a shock 5-2 defeat at the hands of West Brom. Therefore a win here and Tottenham could still move into a fourth place tie with the Blues. I think they will get the full three (points) here against a Newcastle side that’s in really poor form right now. With an embarrassing exit from the Europa League, Tottenham’s only path to next season’s UEFA Champions League is to finish in the top four here in the EPL. Including the 2-0 win over Aston Villa, the Spurs have won four of their last five Premier League matches and boast a YTD goal differential (+19) that suggests they belong in the conversation to finish in the top four. They are certainly in a better place than Newcastle United, who is down in 17th place and just two points clear of safety. The Magpies’ YTD goal differential is -20, third worst in the league. They flashed arguably the worst form of anyone in the English top flight, going back to December 12th. Since that time, their 11 points are the fewest of any EPL side. They are also winless in their L6 matches. The upcoming run of fixtures looks daunting and they finish against Fulham, a match which ultimately may decide who gets relegated and who stays in the top flight. Newcastle was beaten 3-0 (by Brighton & Hove Albion) its last time out and has scored only three goals during its six-match winless run. 10* Tottenham Hotspur |
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04-03-21 | FC Koln v. VfL Wolfsburg -182 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 41 h 11 m | Show |
7* VfL Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): With an eight-point cushion between them and fifth place, third place Wolfsburg (51 points) should feel pretty comfortable about its chances of qualifying for next season’s Champions League. As the 4th (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 5th (Borussia Dortmund) place teams face off on the pitch Saturday, this match with a FC Koln side struggling to avoid relegation looks to be an ideal opportunity to pick up three points and further widen the gap they already enjoy. Wolfsburg has conceded the second fewest number of times (22) this season in the Bundesliga. Before the International Break, they defeated Werder Bremen 2-1 for their eighth win in the last 10 league matches. They’ve not conceded any goals in 9 of their last 12 across all competitions, which is obviously impressive. When you consider Koln has scored the third fewest number of goals in the league this season, it seems reasonable to think they may not even score here. Wolfsburg has scored at least once in every match since Jan 3. Koln is currently in 16th place with 23 points. That would mean the relegation playoff against whoever finishes third in the Bundesliga 2, but even worse would be slipping down to 17th, which would mean automatic relegation. They are only one point ahead of Arminia Bielefeld and one behind Hertha Berlin and Mainz, so there’s obviously no reason for Koln NOT to be motivated here. But motivation alone can’t carry the day. With the second fewest wins (5) in the Bundesliga, things look grim. 7* VfL Wolfsburg |
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03-20-21 | Newcastle United v. Brighton & Hove Albion -139 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 32 m | Show |
10* Brighton & Hove Albion (4:00 ET): BH&A and Newcastle United, sitting 16th and 17th respectively in the Premier League table, are both fighting off relegation. That makes the three points critical on Saturday and I’m taking the home side, who I think has been better for the majority of this season. The Seagulls were finally able to break through with a Premier League victory last week, beating Southampton 2-1. That snapped a three-game losing streak and now they look to secure B2B EPL wins for the first time since early February. Newcastle United has drawn three straight times here in the English top flight, most recently 1-1 against Aston Villa on March 12th. Newcastle was very fortunate to get to share the points in that one as they got the equalizer in the 94th minute of action. That came just eight minutes after an own goal looked to sink them. Over their last five matches, Newcastle has scored only three goals and one would have to go all the way back to Feb 6th to find the last time this side tasted victory. It just so happens that was against Southampton as well. What sticks out to me in this matchup are the team’s respective YTD goal differentials. Brighton & Hove Albion is at -7, which is not great, but it’s also better than four teams ahead of them in the table. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s -17 GD is much more indicative of a side you’d expect might get relegated. In fact, it’s worse than 18th place Fulham, who could pass the Magpies if they were to win Friday. Brighton took the reverse fixture 3-0 back in September and are unbeaten against Newcastle dating back to February 2017. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion |
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03-16-21 | Atalanta v. Real Madrid OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
10* Over Atalanta/Real Madrid (4:00 ET): Real Madrid is in the driver’s seat going into the second leg of this Round of 16 matchup in the Champions League. They won the first leg 1-0 away and did so without a number of key players on the pitch. The lone goal occurred in the 86th minute. So now Atalanta will need to win while scoring at least twice here in Madrid. That’s not that improbable of a scenario when you think about it, but the need for goal scoring will also leave the Serie A side open to attack. I feel the best course of action Tuesday is to play the Over. Real Madrid, surprisingly, haven’t fared all that well in the Champions League, winning just five of their last 11 in this competition. But they have done quite well against Italian sides, winning three in a row in this year’s UCL. On the domestic front, they are currently third in La Liga, maybe not where they want but they are in a good position to make it back to the UCL next season. Key to their recent success is the fact they’ve conceded no more than one goal in each of the last nine fixtures. That run will be put to the test here by Atalanta, who can score goals with the best of any European side. La Dea have the second most goals (63) this season in Serie A and just tallied three over the week against Spezia. This opponent will obviously be more difficult to crack, but - like I mentioned earlier - the need for goal scoring here will leave them open to attack. This should be higher scoring than the reverse fixture with a 2-1 outcome (either way) quite likely. 10* Over Atalanta/Real Madrid |
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03-14-21 | Juventus -185 v. Cagliari | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
6* Juventus (1:00 ET): After their disappointing (and somewhat shocking) exit from the Champions League, Juventus will try and “right the ship” here in Serie A this week as they face a Caligari side that’s only two points clear of the relegation zone. This is clearly a match where Juve should get the full three points. They’ve beaten Cagliari in eight of the last nine league matches keeping a clean sheet seven times. Though Cagliari is on a three-match unbeaten run since a managerial change, I’m not buying it. This was the year Juve’s run of dominance in Serie A was supposed to come to an end. To be fair, a lot of people thought the same last season and they went on to win their ninth straight league title. Currently, they sit third in the table and have the second best goal differential (+30). I think a return to the Champions League next season is a given, even if they don’t win the Scudetto. Let’s not forget they did defeat Porto on Tuesday. They only failed to advance due to the away goals tiebreaker. That was their third straight win across all competitions and they’ve scored three goals in each of those victories. Cagliari’s own unbeaten run appeared to be over last week as they trailed Sampdoria 2-1 before getting the equalizer in the sixth minute of added time. That incredible fortune followed wins over Bologna and Crotone, two sides in the bottom half of the table with the latter being in the basement and almost assured of relegation. Cagliari has scored the fourth fewest number of goals in all of Serie A and Juve had only conceded six times in their previous 13 matches across all competitions before Tuesday. 6* Juventus |
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03-14-21 | Real Sociedad -154 v. Granada | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -154 | 47 h 41 m | Show |
10* Real Sociedad (11:15 AM ET): I faded Granada last week and got lucky as they conceded an added time goal (91st minute) to lose 2-1 to Athletic Bilbao. It was their third loss in the last four La Liga matches and they’ve won only twice in the last 11. A win midweek in the Europa League (2-0 over Molde) is cause for some optimism, but now Granada must turn around and face a Real Sociedad side that’s not only in position to be playing European football next season, but maybe even in the Champions League. La Real have won four of six here in the Spanish top flight all while conceding only three times. They are now fifth in the table, just three points back of Sevilla, who has suddenly hit the skids. Sociedad’s goal differential is superior to Sevilla’s, so a win here could move them into the top four (Sevilla faces a tough test this week from Real Betis). History says that winning this week should not be a problem as they’ve beaten Granada in six of the last seven La Liga fixtures. That includes 2-0 in the reverse back in November. The case against Granada finishing in the upper half of the table is something I laid out in full in last week’s analysis. They have a negative goal differential (-12) that’s in line with the clubs closer to the bottom of the table. That negative goal differential is largely owed to the fact no side has conceded more goals in all of La Liga than Granada’s 44. They have not beaten a side that’s currently in the top half of the table since December. La Real should roll to the full three points Sunday. 10* Real Sociedad |
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03-08-21 | Alavés v. Betis UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
10* Under Alaves/Real Betis (3:00 ET): Real Betis has climbed its way up the La Liga table and is now in a position (6th) where they can at least start thinking about Europa League qualification (need to finish in the top 5). They are still a full nine points back of the top four, so Champions League qualification may be a “pipe dream.” Truthfully, I’m stunned to see this side so high in the table given that they’ve got 10 losses and a YTD goal differential of -5. In my opinion, several clubs below them are actually stronger. Alaves is not stronger. In poor form, they’ve dropped three straight here in La Liga and sit 19th in the table, meaning the threat of relegation is very real at this point. They are tied with Eibar (18th), but behind on goal differential. A win Monday would actually get them into safety as they’d leapfrog two teams. But picking this side to win, even against an overachieving club like Betis, seems far-fetched right now. They have not scored more than one goal in 12 consecutive matches. With just one goal scored during the current three-match losing skid, Alaves is tied for the fewest number of goals in the league this season. Real Betis is hardly a “scoring machine” either. They’ve netted only 33 goals from 25 matches, putting them firmly in the middle of La Liga in that regard. They are coming off B2B 1-0 victories over Getafe and Cadiz, two bad teams, and that very well could be the final score again Monday. It was the score in the reverse fixture back in September. 10* Under Alaves/Real Betis |
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03-07-21 | Granada v. Ath Bilbao -171 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
10* Athletic Bilbao (3:00 ET): I’ve been waiting for a matchup like this for awhile now. This is probably my favorite La Liga play since the Game of the Year winner with Barcelona (over Real Betis) last month. Reason being Athletic Bilbao is a much better side than Granada despite being lower in the table. That positioning creates a bit of line value here and I’m all on the home side Sunday. While currently 8th in the table, Granada has a -11 goal differential, which would put them in line with clubs closer to the bottom. Bilbao has a +6 YTD goal differential, better than the four teams directly above them and sixth best in all of La Liga. It’s already been a successful week for Bilbao as they’ve advanced to the final of the Copa del Rey, thanks to an added time goal against Levante on Wednesday. The fact it’ll be this club’s second year in a row in that particular final tells you what they are capable of. They also won the Spanish Super Cup earlier this season. The arrival of boss Marcelino has totally transformed their fortunes and now it’s time to move up in the Spanish top flight. A full three points here and they would leapfrog Granada into eighth place. They are unbeaten across their last seven in all competitions. Granada has conceded the most goals (42) in all of La Liga, so the fact they are currently 8th is a minor miracle. Having progressed into the Europa League Round of 16 (ousted Napoli) is a feather in the cap and they did beat Elche 2-1 last week in their return to domestic action. However, that win also snapped a six-game winless run here in La Liga, which includes losses to the likes of Huesca and Osasuna. They have not beaten a side in the top half of the table since December. Bilbao has triple revenge here and they lost the reverse fixture 2-0 in November. They’ll be motivated for the full three. 10* Athletic Bilbao |
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03-07-21 | Bologna v. Napoli -180 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
8* Napoli (2:45 ET): Napoli’s chances of finishing in the top four of Serie A took a hit midweek with an extraordinary 3-3 draw against Sassuolo. The sixth place Azzurri seemed ready to grab all three points when Lorenzo Insigne booted in the apparent game-winner in the 90th minute via penalty. However, a costly penalty was doled out against them in the fifth minute of injury time and Sassuolo responded with the equalizer. Keep in mind the score was only tied 2-2 due to an “own goal” that went against Napoli. All three goals conceded in the match were either via penalty or own goal. That’s tough. Napoli can be maddeningly inconsistent, but there is no doubt this side is worthy of Champions League qualification. They are currently five points back of that benchmark, though the gap could further widen depending on how Roma performs earlier on Sunday. But the Azzurri have the fourth best goal differential in all of Serie A (+24) and have four victories while keeping a clean sheet in the last eight fixtures. That’s they have three losses while conceding at least twice, during the same time frame, is where the inconsistency kicks in. Only Inter and Atalanta have scored more goals this campaign. Bologna was unbeaten in February, winning twice and drawing twice, but March got off to an awful start with a 1-0 loss to Caligari, who is fighting off relegation. The fact Bologna is still only 12th in the table should tell you all you need to know about them. They are actually only eight points clear of safety (relegation) and the truth is I don’t see them finishing in the top half. They have just two away victories all season and only Crotone and Fiorentina have a lower point percentage on the road. The reverse fixture was 1-0 Napoli back in November. 8* Napoli |
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03-06-21 | Barcelona FC -182 v. Osasuna | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
7* Barcelona (3:00 ET): Barcelona continues its chase of Atletico Madrid in the La Liga standings as it travels to face bottom of the table Osasuna on Saturday. It was not that long ago that I considered Atletico’s stranglehold on 1st place to be impenetrable, but now the gap has been closed to just five points and Barca actually owns the superior YTD goal differential (+33 to +31). Osasuna can only dream of being in such a position as they are 30 points off the pace and a full 20 behind Champions League qualification. Now I will acknowledge the fact that Osasuna has taken nine points from their previous four La Liga matches to vault into 12th place. But there is a huge gap in this league between the top teams and everyone else and it wasn’t that long ago that Osasuna was staring down the possibility of relegation. Still only six points clear of safety, they are not “out of the woods” yet. They did defeat Alaves 1-0 last week, but have not beaten a top seven side all season. They lost 4-0 to Barca in the reverse fixture back in November. Meanwhile, Barca seems to be peaking right now with two recent wins over previously red hot Sevilla. It’s not just that they beat Sevilla twice, once in the Copa del Rey, it was that they did so by a combined score of 5-0! Unbeaten in three straight across all competitions, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 8-0. They are now La Liga’s highest scoring side (55 goals) and that’s big trouble for Osasuna, who has scored only 23 goals or an average of less than once per match. 7* Barcelona |
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03-06-21 | Borussia Dortmund v. Bayern Munich -162 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
8* Bayern Munich (12:30 ET): Bayern Munich looks to remain atop the Bundesliga table Saturday as it renews acquaintances with rival Borussia Dortmund in Der Klassiker. While it’s certainly a surprise to see Bayern’s league lead at only two points, Dortmund’s position is obviously a lot more tenuous. With eight losses already to their name this season, they currently occupy the fifth spot in the table, three points back of Champions League qualification. Sixth place Leverkusen is also just two points behind them. Bayern has suffered a nasty habit of falling behind this season and a leaky defense hasn’t helped. But when I played them in the 1st leg of the Champions League Round of 16 (against Lazio), I said it was time they’d start to assert themselves and resemble the dominant side we are all used to seeing. Sure enough, they won 4-1. Then came a 5-1 demolition of FC Koln last week here in the German top flight. Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry both returned to the pitch and made immediate dividends for a side that has 67 goals in 23 Bundesliga matches. That’s 19 more goals than anybody else (Dortmund is #2). Making matters worse for Dortmund today is the fact they’ll be without Jadon Sancho, Raphael Guerriero and Giovanni Reyna. Even at full strength, I did not like their chances here. Now it could very well get ugly in a hurry. Dortmund has won four straight across all competitions mind you, but their last two Bundesliga victories came against sides facing relegation. They have lost four straight in Der Klassiker including 3-2 earlier this season. When Bayern is at full strength, they are almost impossible to beat and they’ll be focused here. 8* Bayern Munich |
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03-06-21 | Arsenal -149 v. Burnley | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -149 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
8* Arsenal (7:30 AM ET): By their own admission, Arsenal may be nothing more than a “middle of the table team.” But they are certainly in better shape this Premier League season when compared to Saturday counterparts Burnley. The Clarets currently sit 15th in the table (with 29 points) and relegation is certainly NOT out of the question considering they’ve scored only 19 goals in 27 matches. The fewest goals ever scored by a non-relegated team in any EPL season is 28. So unless they pick up the pace or the defense holds, they could be in some trouble. Burnley did win the reverse fixture, 1-0 back in December. So the Gunners are out for revenge here. Certainly, they are in much better form now than they were two months ago. They carried a seven-match unbeaten streak in the EPL through January and are now coming off an impressive 3-1 victory over third place Leicester City last week. That’s in addition to progressing to the Round of 16 in the Europa League. A win here would make it three straight across all competitions and they’ve tasted defeat only three times since X-Mas! Burnley has not swept a season series from Arsenal since 1962-63, so history is definitely against them on Saturday. Recent form is not encouraging either. The Clarets are winless in their last four and while three of those were draws, they were hammered (4-0) in the one loss. They’ve already suffered 11 losses this Premier League season, only one shy of their record for a 38-match campaign and even worse is the fact they’ve failed to score 10 times. They’ve NEVER scored more than one goal in a EPL match against Arsenal. 8* Arsenal |
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02-28-21 | Burnley v. Tottenham Hotspur -183 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
7* Tottenham (9:00 AM ET): Fresh off advancing to the Europa League’s Round of 16, the Spurs return to the English top flight Sunday looking to reverse their recent Premier League form. They’ve lost five of their last six matches to drop down to ninth in the table, a position few expected them to be in. However, four of those five losses came at the hands of sides closer to the top of the table. This week they are facing bottom of the table side Burnley, who is just six points clear of safety and sitting in 15th. Burnley is also the EPL’s second lowest scoring side (Sheffield United) with only 18 goals scored in their 25 matches. While they are on a four-match unbeaten run here in the Premier League, three of those results have resulted in draws including a scoreless one vs. West Brom last week. They also have the fourth worst away record in the EPL and haven’t beaten Tottenham away since 1983! Advancing in the Europa League on an aggregate score of 8-1 should give the Spurs some confidence heading into this one. With this match to be followed by fixtures with Fulham and Crystal Palace, Tottenham definitely has a chance to inch closer to the top four. I still feel this is a better club than what they’ve shown recently on the domestic front. They should have more than enough firepower to get the full three (points) today as Burnley has been held to one goal or less in six of its last seven matches. 7* Tottenham |
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02-27-21 | Brighton & Hove Albion -103 v. West Bromwich Albion | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 4 m | Show |
10* Brighton & Hove Albion (10:00 AM ET): It was a puzzling defeat for Brighton & Hove Albion last week on the pitch as they fell 2-1 to Crystal Palace. Not just because I had them and they gave up the game-winner in the 95th minute. But also because the Seagulls dominated possession (74%) and shots (25-3). As previously discussed, Brighton is probably deserving of a better place than 16th in the table and only four points clear of the relegation zone. Their goal differential is better than three teams above them. Last week also snapped a six-match unbeaten streak in the Premier League. West Brom seem destined for relegation at season’s end as they currently sit second from the bottom (19th) and have a long way to go (11 points) to reach safety. On the bright side, they have picked up two points from their last two matches, playing to draws with both Manchester United and Burnley. The former, in particular, is impressive. But the Baggies are still winless over their last six and have scored a total of just one goal in their last three. They have the worst goal differential (-36) in the entire EPL as they’ve conceded 55 times in 25 matches Last week’s loss as well as a league-high 11 draws have Brighton in an unfortunate position, but I think this fixture is tailor-made for them to pick up three points. They’ve already picked up 16 points from their previous 12 away matches and West Brom has the worst home record in the league. Tariq Lamptey is expected back from a two-month absence due to a hamstring injury. West Brom has only two wins this entire campaign and unlike the reverse fixture (1-1 on Oct 26), I don’t see the sides sharing the points. 10* Brighton & Hove Albion |
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02-27-21 | Hertha Berlin v. VfL Wolfsburg -133 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
8* VFL Wolfsburg (9:30 ET): With Eintracht Frankfurt’s shocking defeat Friday, Wolfsburg can now have third place in the Bundesliga table all to themselves. They were already (slightly) ahead based on goal differential, but now they can move ahead on points. Frankfurt’s loss also means Wolfsburg can now claim to have the fewest number of losses (2) in the entire Bundesliga this season. They are on a nine-match unbeaten run in the German top flight and only seven points back of leaders Bayern Munich. While they may not be able to get any closer, Saturday marks an excellent opportunity to at least keep pace. Hertha Berlin’s current position is far less envious. They sit 15th, but sit ahead of the relegation playoff only based on a better goal differential than Arminia Bielefeld. Wolfsburg actually did them a favor by thumping Bielefeld 3-0 last week. Unfortunately, Hertha could not help themselves as they were beaten by that same score against a determined RB Leipzig. With that defeat, Hertha remained winless over their last eight Bundesliga fixtures. Even more frightening is the fact Hertha has not scored a goal in five of those eight matches. Now they face a Wolfsburg side that has kept a ridiculous seven consecutive clean sheets across all competitions! The Wolves have conceded only 19 goals all season, second fewest in the entire Bundesliga and they can taste Champions League qualification. This is very much a legit top four side in the league as they’ve won six of the last seven. The fact they shared the points in a 1-1 draw with Hertha back in November should have them properly motivated here. 8* VFL Wolfsburg |
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02-27-21 | Schalke 04 v. Stuttgart -185 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show |
7* Stuttgart (9:30 ET): While Stuttgart may be “nothing more” than a top half (of the table) side this season, they are clearly better than Schalke and it should be an easy three points on home turf Saturday. Nothing short of a miracle can save Schalke from being relegated at season’s end as their nine points are eight fewer than everybody else and a -41 goal differential is quite easily the worst in all of Europe’s top leagues. They have won only one time all season. Stuttgart won 1-0 in Koln last weekend and should have no problem remaining in the German top flight next season. The recently promoted side got off to a great start this season, but then began to stumble a bit. They’ve taken only nine points at home all season (just one win) and last won B2B matches back in December. But if ever there was a time for an easy win, it would be here. Now believe it or not, Stuttgart is actually winless in the last five fixtures vs. Schalke. The reverse fixture was a 1-1 draw back in October. But again, I see those past results motivating the favorite in this one (same as the other two plays in this 3-pack). Unlike in October, Schalke now knows its future fate. It’s going to be tough for them to drum up ANY motivation on a weekly basis from this point forward. No side has scored less or conceded more. 7* Stuttgart |
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02-25-21 | Young Boys Bern v. Bayer Leverkusen -164 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -164 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
8* Bayer Leverkusen (3:00 ET): Swiss side Young Boys took the first leg of this Round of 32 tie by a score of 4-3. But by mounting a second half comeback in that one, Bayer Leverkusen positioned themselves well to still move on to the Round of 16 in this year’s Europa League. They still have to win Thursday, mind you. But a win is likely all they need as their three away goals from the first leg are likely to ensure they move on if the overall aggregate score ends up tied. For those unfamiliar, the aggregate (overall) number of goals scored is the first tiebreaker if the two sides end up splitting the two legs. The next tiebreak is the number of away goals scored. So as long as Leverkusen is able to win Thursday and keep Young Boys under three goals, then they progress to the Round of 16. That scenario seems likely to happen as far as I’m concerned. I know Leverkusen got off to a very “sleepy” start in the first leg, falling behind 3-0 in the first half. And a 1-1 draw with Augsburg in the Bundesliga over the weekend doesn’t exactly inspire a ton of confidence. However, winning the Europa League now seems to be taking on an added importance given it’s looking less likely Leverkusen finishes in the top four of the German top flight. Young Boys have won seven straight across all competitions, but remember they are generally not facing the same caliber of opponent. Yes, they did defeat Leverkusen before. But it’s a virtual guarantee that the fast start they enjoyed at home is not going to repeat itself here. If Young Boys fall behind here, and I expect they will, then they’re going to have to “open things up” (in an effort to score), which leaves them more vulnerable on the back end. 8* Bayer Leverkusen |
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02-24-21 | Manchester City -170 v. Borussia Monchengladbach | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 359 h 23 m | Show |
2/23 UPDATE: Wednesday's Champions League play on Manchester City was released two weeks ago. Since then, the line has skyrocketed. If you do not feel comfortable playing that large of a favorite, I'd recommend passing rather than the goal line. 7* Manchester City (3:00 ET): Man City has been the most dominant side in all of Europe this season and thus enters the Round of 16 as the favorite to win this year’s Champions League. I just took them on Sunday when they rolled to a 1-0 win over Arsenal in the Premier League. They scored the lone goal just two minutes in. It was a surprise that they failed to find the back of the net again, but at the same time it was the Citizens’ 23rd clean sheet this season and 13th in the last 17 EPL matches. It’s not just the Premier League that Man City is dominating. They’ve won 18 straight across all competitions, outscoring the opposition 47-6 during the run! Here in the Champions League, they topped Group C with 16 points, winning five and drawing once. They conceded only one goal in the six matches, the fewest of any side in the Group Stage. They finished tied with Bayern Munich for the best goal differential at +12. Drawing Man City here in the Round of 16 was a bad break for Gladbach, but their own recent poor form gives even more reason for pessimism. They’ve fallen to eighth in the Bundesliga following a 2-1 loss to Mainz (a side that will almost surely be relegated) and now nine points adrift of the top four, it’s highly unlikely we’ll see them back in the Champions League next year. Even worse is that they’ve become a bit of a “lame duck” with manager Marco Rose already announcing he’ll be heading to rival Dortmund this summer. Gladbach may have been the best side in Group B, but they finished just 2-2-2 and they enter Wednesday’s 1st leg having won only once in their last five fixtures. This is their 1st ever appearance in the knockout stage and it’s likely to be a short stay. 7* Manchester City |
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02-23-21 | Bayern Munich -152 v. Lazio | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 335 h 23 m | Show |
10* Bayern Munich (3:00 ET): Despite a recent “downturn” in domestic form, there is no denying that Bayern Munich knows how to “turn it on” when it comes to European Football. The reigning champs of the continent are unbeaten in their last 17 Champions League fixtures and they easily won Group A this season by taking 16 out of a possible 18 points. After losing 2-1 to Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday, Bayern’s Bundesliga lead has been trimmed down to just two points. I believe they’ll respond “in kind” here in the 1st leg of the Round of 16 against Serie A side Lazio. Lazio looked good in Saturday’s 1-0 win over Sampdoria, moving them up into a fourth place tie in Serie A. They probably should have won by more, however, let’s not be quick to forget the previous week’s result, that being a 3-1 loss to Inter. Despite LY’s top four finish in Serie A, I’m skeptical we’ll see Lazio back in the Champions League next season. They obviously weren’t nearly as dominant in the Group stage as was Bayern Munich. It was second place in a fairly weak Group F that was topped by another Bundesliga side, Dortmund. So Bayern is actually on a two-match winless run with the loss to Frankfurt and a 3-3 draw against Arminia Bielefeld (where they fell behind 3-0). Two matches without a win is usually no big deal, but it’s a little stunning when you’re THIS side. My view is that they are going to come out firing Tuesday. Fixing a leaky defense is easier said than done, but if Bayern plays the way it did in the 2nd half vs. Frankfurt, then they’re going to win here. Lazio can’t match Bayern’s goal-scoring capability (who can?). 10* Bayern Munich |
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02-22-21 | Crystal Palace v. Brighton & Hove Albion -127 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -127 | 25 h 16 m | Show |
10* Brighton Hove & Albion (3:00 ET): Brighton comes into this Monday match three points back of Crystal Palace and 16th in the table, only four points clear of the relegation zone. However, I think there’s a pretty clear argument to be made that BH&A is the superior side on the pitch today and should probably be much higher in the table. Their -5 YTD goal differential is actually 12th “best” in the Premier League. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace has the league’s 4th worst goal differential (-15) and I feel they are the ones that should be more concerned with the possibility of relegation at season’s end. While still seven points clear of the relegation zone, Crystal Palace has dropped B2B matches with an aggregate score of 5-0. They lost 2-0 to Leeds United, then 3-0 to Burnley last week. Those are middle of the table sides (at best) and other than a 1-0 triumph over Wolverhampton on Jan 30, the Eagles haven’t beaten anybody outside the top four since November. They’ve lost 11 times this season, which is three more than BH&A. Brighton is actually on a six-match unbeaten run in the Premier League heading into today, more proof that they are probably deserving of a better “current lot in life.” They’ve won three and drawn three during this stretch. Wins over the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham demonstrate what they are capable of and I like the fact they’ve conceded no more than one goal in 10 consecutive matches (5 clean sheets). Crystal Palace is still without top goal scorer Wilfried Zala, so this is a golden opportunity for Brighton to snap a three-game losing skid to this particular opponent. 10* Brighton Hove & Albion |
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02-21-21 | Roma -189 v. Benevento | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -189 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* AS Roma (2:45 ET): This is a critical three points here for Roma, who enter Sunday in a third place tie with Lazio (ahead on goal differential) in Serie A table. But 5th place Juventus is just one point behind and has a game in hand. Then you’ve got the fact that the winner of 6th place Napoli vs. 7th place Atalanta (earlier on Sunday) will draw even with Roma. So it’s imperative that the Giallorossi come through with what would be a third straight win here in the Italian top flight. I think they will. Benevento has not been in good form for a while now and has fallen to 15th in the table. They actually have the third worst goal differential (-17) in the league with only the hideous marks of Parma and Crotone being worse. So they’re lucky to not be even lower in the table and it’s not difficult to envision a scenario where they are fighting off relegation by season’s end. Last year’s Serie B champs are winless in the last six Serie A fixtures, though they’ve played to a 1-1 draw in each of the last two. But those were against Bologna and Sampdoria, two sides nowhere close to the quality of the side they’ll face here. Benevento has conceded 42 times this season. Again, only the bottom two (Parma, Crotone) have conceded more. They’ve lost three straight to Roma, by an aggregate score of 14-4, conceding at least three goals every time out. The reverse fixture, back in October, was a 5-2 final. Roma won 3-0 last week in Serie A competition (against Udinese), then was able to rest some key contributors in an easy midweek win over Braga in the Europa League. They have a 26-match win streak against newly promoted sides, the longest active streak in all of Serie A. 10* AS Roma |
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02-21-21 | Manchester City -194 v. Arsenal | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
7* Manchester City (11:30 AM ET): Man City has emerged as the best side in all of Europe this season. They are better than Bayern Munich and better than Atletico Madrid. They are better than everybody. Not only have they won 12 straight times here in the EPL, but they’ve won 17 in a row across all competitions, an all-time record for an English side. The last time they lost was November 21st to Tottenham, which was 25 matches ago. Since then, they’ve kept 12 clean sheets in 16 EPL matches. Their 22 clean sheets this season are the most of any side in Europe’s “Big 5” leagues. You can’t go against ‘em right now. All this dominance has opened up a 10-point lead on the rest of the field. On Sunday, The Citizens head to Emirates Stadium to take on Arsenal, who are firmly a middle of the table side at this point. The hosts are currently 22 points back of Man City and 10th in the table. A 4-2 win last week over Leeds snapped a three-match winless streak in the Premier League for the Gunners, but they simply have not fared well in this fixture - losing the last seven EPL meetings. It was 1-0 in the reverse fixture back in October. They’ve also failed to score a single goal against Man City in any of the last three home league games. It’s not just how many times Man City has won in a row, it’s HOW they’re winning. All those clean sheets speak to their dominance over the rest of the league. They did concede a goal last week to Everton, but also scored three of their own. That was the fourth straight match Man City scored at least three times, one of those coming in the FA Cup. All five wins in February have been by 2+ goals. In addition to a 1-0 win in the reverse fixture, they also hold a 4-1 win over Arsenal in the EFL Cup this season. 7* Manchester City. |
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02-20-21 | Real Madrid -192 v. Real Valladolid | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 43 h 8 m | Show |
10* Real Madrid (3:00 ET): Second place Real Madrid will be gunning for their fourth consecutive La Liga victory on Saturday as they look to continue their pursuit of Atletico Madrid. Los Blancos currently trail the table leaders by six points as of this writing, but that gap could very well be widened to nine by the time they get on the pitch Saturday night (Atletico plays Levante earlier in the day). Fortunately for Zidane’s side, this should be an easy three points against a struggling side facing the prospect of relegation. Real Valladolid currently sits 18th in the table with 21 points. That would mean relegation, although it should be noted they are tied with Eibar. However, they are behind on goal differential and the two teams behind them are just one win away from tying them. This is a top heavy league this year with the top six having clearly separated themselves and the top four likely already determined. After that, there’s not much difference, especially in the bottom half of the table. Real Valladolid are off a 1-1 draw with Eibar, however the issue here is that they are facing the #2 team in La Liga. The reverse fixture earlier this year ended 1-0 in Real Madrid’s favor and Valladolid has not beaten Los Blancos in more than 12 years. Tied for the 4th worst home mark in the league this season, it’s not going to happen here. Real Madrid had no problem with Valencia last week, winning 2-0, and with two tougher fixtures on the horizon, this is one where they’ve got to take the full three. Valladolid is winless in their last six in La Liga, three of those being losses. This price is VERY cheap, all things considered. 10* Real Madrid |
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02-20-21 | Levante v. Atletico Madrid -175 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -175 | 38 h 24 m | Show |
7* Atletico Madrid (10:15 AM ET): The La Liga table leaders are out for revenge Saturday as they face the same side that played them to a surprising 1-1 draw on Wednesday. This immediate rematch is brought about by rescheduling due to COVID. When I say that the 1-1 draw Wednesday was “surprising,” I mean in multiple ways. First off, Levante is a middle of the table side that’s 10 points back of Europa League qualifying. Also, Atletico Madrid had substantial edges in possession time and shots on goal. I’ve said it before, but Atletico Madrid just may be the best team in all of Europe this season. They’ll get a chance to prove that when they face Chelsea as Champions League play resumes Tuesday. But here on the domestic side of things, there is no denying just how dominant Atletico has been. While two of their four draws have come over the previous three fixtures, they’ve still suffered only one defeat this entire campaign. They are six points clear of second place Real Madrid (with a match in hand) and a +31 YTD goal differential. Levante is winless in its last 14 away matches here. It’s difficult to imagine them earning a second consecutive draw, even with Atletico having “bigger things” on its mind (ie. Tuesday’s 1st leg vs Chelsea). Levante has also conceded 33 times this season, more than double the number of time Atletico has, and among the most in all of La Liga. They’ve won just once in their last six La Liga matches. Scoring early on Wednesday was key to earning the point. Don’t see that happening again. 7* Atletico Madrid |
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02-19-21 | VfL Wolfsburg -150 v. Arminia Bielefeld | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 47 h 0 m | Show |
8* VfL Wolfsburg (2:30 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Bundesliga table meet Friday when Wolfsburg travels to face Arminia Bielefeld. Wolfsburg is tied with another surprising side, Eintracht Frankfurt, for third place and can have that position to itself. Given Frankfurt is facing Bayern Munich Saturday, this represents an excellent chance for the Wolves to make a move. Arminia Bielefeld is simply trying to fight off relegation and move out of the bottom three as they are in 16th place right now. Both these sides played to a draw last week. I’d argue that Bielefeld’s draw was both more impressive and more disappointing. They had Bayern Munich on the ropes, twice holding a two-goal lead. But they had to settle for a 3-3 final against the kings of Europe, a result they gladly would have taken going into the fixture, but are probably disheartened over given they probably should have taken the full three points. Meanwhile, Wolfsburg played to a 0-0 draw with Gladbach, which had to be hugely unsatisfying given they held an edge in both shots and possession. That draw may have been a disappointment, however, Wolfsburg had won their four previous Bundesliga matches and have only been beaten twice the entire campaign. That’s tied for the fewest losses in the entire league. They’ve got a huge matchup advantage here in that they have conceded only 19 goals this season, second fewest in the league, while Bielefeld has scored the second FEWEST goals in the league (18). Before we go giving Bielefeld “too much credit” for last week’s draw, note they had an extra week to prepare and were outshot badly. 8* Wolfsburg |
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02-18-21 | Tottenham Hotspur -165 v. AC Wolfsberger | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
6* Tottenham (12:55 ET): Tottenham Hotspur looks to shake off its recent poor domestic form and return to its winning ways in the Europa League on Thursday. The Spurs’ opposition for the Round of 32 is Wolfsberger, an Austrian Bundesliga side that is competing in the knockout stage of a major European competition for the very first time. As the odds indicate, anything but a comfortable win for Tottenham in this first leg would be a major shocker. I expect a comfortable win. Note: this match is being played in Budapest (Puskas Arena) due to COVID-19 protocols. So there’s no home turf advantage for Wolfsberger, making the mountain an even more difficult climb. They finished second in Group K, which didn’t include any teams from Europe’s Big 5 leagues. They won three, lost two and drew once in the Group Stage, finishing with a +1 goal differential. Quite frankly, that’s not all that impressive and they are not used to the level of competition they’ll face here in the Round of 32. Wolfsberger is only sixth in the Austrian Bundesliga currently, so it’s not like they’re even dominating the lesser competition. In the midst of a disappointing Premier League campaign (six points out of the top four), Tottenham can still salvage some dignity by winning the Europa League. They are among the favorites to do so after winning Group J by taking 13 of a possible 18 points. They had a goal differential of +10. This is Tottenham’s 10th time in the Europa League knockout stage and Jose Mourinho hasn’t lost an away knockout match since 2002. 6* Tottenham |
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02-14-21 | Sassuolo Calcio -101 v. Crotone | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
10* Sassuolo (12:00 ET): I can’t say I’m surprised to see that Sassuolo has tumbled down the table a bit as I’ve previously faded them multiple times. Their winless run in Serie A now stands at five straight matches with three of those being defeats. This poor form has them down in 8th place and nine points out of the top four. However, it would certainly appear that we are able to get them at a real “bargain” on Sunday as they travel to face bottom of the table Crotone, whose recent form has been even worse. It will take nothing short of a miracle for Crotone to escape relegation. Sure, they are technically only five points away from safety, but conceding at a rate of 2.5 goals per match is certainly not a recipe for success. Their 50 goals allowed this season are easily Serie A’s most with the second most being Spezia’s 42 and Crotone has a game in hand compared to them. The Squali have now lost five of six after being drubbed 4-1 by Milan last week and there are few signs of hope for this side right now. The reverse fixture took place back in October and saw Sassuolo prevail by a score of 4-1. At the time, the Neroverdi were in the midst of three consecutive matches with four goals scored. They haven’t matched that output in any fixture since, but with Domenico Berardi set to return, they very well could do it here. Last week’s surprising 2-1 loss to Spezia still fresh in the mind, Sassulo can’t let the opportunity for three points bypass them here after previous draws against the likes of Cagliari and Parma. 10* Sassuolo |
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02-14-21 | FC Koln v. Eintracht Frankfurt -189 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
6* Eintracht Frankfurt (9:30 AM ET): Frankfurt looks to continue its incredible recent form on Sunday as they host FC Koln. Their last loss occurred all the way back on 12/11 to Wolfsburg, a side they can pass by picking up the three points here. Since losing to Wolfsburg, Frankfurt is unbeaten in nine consecutive Bundesliga matches, winning seven and drawing two. They are currently 5th in the table, but if things break right, they could end up as high as third (and back in Champions League qualifying position) were they to win here. I believe they will. Koln is at the other end of the table, sitting in 14th place. But they have won three of their last four Bundesliga fixtures and are currently four points clear of the relegation zone. Just last week they ended an 8-match unbeaten streak of Gladbach, so they will be the proverbial “tough out.” However, they still have a -13 goal differential on the season and have scored only half the number of goals that Frankfurt has. The reverse fixture may have been 1-1, but this is a much different Frankfurt team that Koln will be facing this time around. Even as someone who expected Frankfurt to improve this campaign (go back and check my early season analysis!), even I have been taken aback by the recent form. They’ve scored at least two goals in nine consecutive matches and found the back of the net 11 times in just the last three. Andre Silva and Filip Kostic are as potent as any duo in Europe right now and I just see too much firepower for Koln to keep up. With both Dortmund and Leverkusen held to a draw yday, the door is now wide open for Frankfurt to move back into the top four and I say they take advantage and get the full three. 6* Eintracht Frankfurt |
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02-13-21 | AC Milan -196 v. Spezia Calcio | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -196 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
6* AC Milan (2:45 ET): Table leaders AC Milan look to extend their advantage over Inter as they travel to face surprising Spezia. AC Milan has not won Serie A in a decade, but right now sits at the top with 49 points. However, Inter (47) is hot on their heels and you can never count on nine-time defending champion Juventus (42). Getting the full three points here is somewhat of a must and certainly achievable considering Milan won the reverse fixture 3-0 back in October and has a much better record away than Spezia does at home. When I called Spezia “surprising” earlier in the analysis, I was referring to the fact that most considered the Serie A first timers a lock for relegation at the start of the season. But here they are sitting 16th and several points clear of the bottom three. They defeated Sassuolo 2-1 last week, a side in the top half of the table, so Milan must be “on guard” Saturday. But before that win, Spezia had been winless in their last three Serie A competitions, twice failing to score a single goal. While they’ve had some shocking victories this season, only once have they won at home. After exiting the Coppa Italia in the quarterfinals and losing 3-0 at home to Atalanta, AC Milan has bounced back with two straight victories. Last week it was a convincing 4-0 clean sheet against last place Crotone. No side has been better on the road this year as Milan has nine wins and one draw in 10 away fixtures and they are now on a 17-match unbeaten run away from Stadio Giuseppe Meazza dating back to last season. With a tough upcoming schedule, there will be a clear focus here on gaining the full three points. 6* AC Milan |
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02-13-21 | Genoa v. Torino -100 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
10* Torino (9:00 AM ET): Believe it or not, Torino has not won at home since last summer! Then again, maybe that should not be all that surprising as the Granada have just two wins this entire Serie A campaign. But there have been recent signs of improvement on the pitch, namely last week’s thrilling 3-3 draw with Atalanta which saw Torino battle back from a three-goal deficit. It was their fourth consecutive draw in Serie A and fifth across all competitions. That run of points has allowed them to escape the relegation zone, albeit barely, as they are now 17th in the table and one point clear. Genoa has engineered a more shocking turnaround as they’ve climbed from the depths of Serie A to a respectable 12th in the table. They’ve done so by winning four of their previous five matches, including 2-1 over Napoli last weekend. A change in coaching and top goalscorer Mattia Destro getting hot have been the primary reasons for this turnaround, but I’ve also got to point to the fact they’ve mostly been beating the bottom teams in the league, such as Crotone, Cagliari and Bologna, two of which currently occupy spots in the relegation zone. For the record, Genoa has not won four straight Serie A matches since 2009. Torino’s last home victory, ironically enough, came against Genoa by a score of 3-0. While I don’t think it will be that lopsided this time around, I do expect the home side to pick up the three points here. In some more irony, current boss Davide Nicola was the coach for Genoa back then. He, like counterpart Davide Ballardini, has led a bit of a turnaround and certainly last week’s result should have the players “smelling victory.” They’ve had Genoa’s number the last few seasons with a 7-match unbeaten run that has seen them outscore the Ligurians 11-3. Today will be Torino’s day to win at home - finally. 10* Torino |