Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-23-18 | Sweden v. Germany -192 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
6* Germany (2:00 ET): There have been many shockers so far at this year's World Cup, but perhaps all pale in comparison to Germany dropping its first match, 1-0 to Mexico. Now there's a real sense of urgency for Die Mannschaft, the reigning World Cup champs, who are desperate for a win Saturday against Sweden. Given the stakes and the gap in talent here, I was positively stunned that the favorites were available at such an affordable price here. Go with Germany in a must win! It has been 80 years since a German team failed to make it through the Group Stage at a World Cup. So history certainly favors the favorite here. While you can certainly say Mexico outclassed and outhustled them Sunday, Joachim Loew's side had significant edges both in possession and shots on goal. Let's also be sure to recall that when it came to World Cup qualifying, Low's side was impeccable as they won all 10 matches, conceding only four goals in the process. Let us also not forget they won the Confederations Cup last year (arguably w/ a "B-squad"). Sweden won its first match, but they were also fortunate to be taking on a rather anemic South Korean side that could muster little, if anything. Truthfully, South Korea's only real chance to score came in the 92nd minute. They managed just five shots for the game, none on goal. This will be a huge step up in class for The Blue-Yellow, who are still searching for the replacement to the retired Zlatan Ibrahimovic among other departed veterans. Unlike the first match, Sweden's top-end talent will be severely outclassed here. I'm all in on the favorites in this one. 6* Germany |
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06-23-18 | South Korea v. Mexico -141 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
10* Mexico (11:00 ET): Through the first round of group play, it would be difficult to argue that any side had a more impressive performance than the one put forth by Mexico. El Tri stunned heavily favored Germany (making me look foolish in the process!), 1-0, in a real gutty performance. Now comes having to avoid the obvious letdown spot against South Korea. That shouldn't be a problem though as South Korea was blanked 1-0 in its own opening match (by Sweden) and is a team w/ minimal experience at the highest level. Most of the individual players don't play abroad. Yes, the country has qualified for every WC since 1986. But they are outgunned here as was evident by a 4-0 loss the last time these sides took the field against one another (back in '14). Back Mexico. Germany wasn't only the favorite to take Group F. The defending WC champs were favored to repeat here in Russia. So beating them was no small accomplishment for El Tri. To me, the only possible enemy would be themselves as they have to avoid that letdown. They were outshot 2:1 by Germany and had possession of the ball less than 40 percent of the time. But those issues should not persist against this particular opponent. In its opening game, South Korea didn't have many chances and had only five shots, none requiring a save by the goaltender! The only real scoring chance they had came in added time, in the 92nd minute. South Korea is winless in six straight WC matches, a streak that dates back to 2010. Recent form is hardly impressive either as they are 1-3-1 their L5 matches having been held w/o a goal in the last two. They hardly impresed during Asian qualifying, basically getting here due to the process of elimination. Despite conceding just the one goal to Sweden, there are major issues defensively for the Taeguk Warriors and expect Mexico to have a field day w/ set pieces Saturday. El Tri is sound defensively (as we saw vs. Germany) and by winning that opening match, they now seem to have a clear path to the Round of 16. 10* Mexico |
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06-21-18 | Croatia v. Argentina +110 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
10* Argentina (2:00 PM ET): A disappointing showing in the opener (drew Iceland 1-1) coupled w/ Croatia's very impressive 2-0 win over Nigeria has the price on Argentina far too low here and I'll take advantage. While the starting XI may not be up to the usual standard we're seeing from La Albiceleste, certainly there is a reason this team entered the draw as the Group D favorite. That (primary) reason would be Lionel Messi, who is coming off quite the disappointing showing vs. Iceland where he missed on a penalty kick. But I fully expect Messi and La Albiceleste to bounce back w/ a spirited effort on Thursday. They are my pick to win and seize control of the group. I was on Croatia Saturday as they blanked Nigeria. As is the case w/ Argentina here, I though the price was far too low on Vatreni that day. Nigeria was the lowest rated team in the group according to FIFA (#48), so this is a rather massive step up in class to the #5 ranked team in the world. (For the record, Croatia ranks #20). Let us not forget something I wrote in my analysis of that Croatia-Nigeria matchup - that since becoming an independent nation Croatia has NEVER qualified for the Round of 16 in World Cup play. Coming off an easier than expected win over Nigeria, might they actually be too overconfident heading into their toughest matchup of the groups stage? Remember that Nigeria had a suspect goaltending situation as well. Even with that, Croatia's 2-0 victory was somewhat misleading. They scored on an own goal and a penalty. Other than those two decisive plays, the teams looked pretty even as Croatia struggled to penetrate the Nigerian defense and was often off-target w/ its shot attempts. In fact, possession was basically even in the contest and the Super Eagles finished w/ more shots on goal. Another developing story here is that Croatia has sent home striker Nikola Kalinic after he refused to come in as a late substitution. Note Argentina outshot Iceland 26-9 in the opening contest and controlled the ball 73% of the time. Messi will be better here and Argentina gets the three points. 10* Argentina |
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06-20-18 | Morocco +1 v. Portugal | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Morocco +1 (8:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here where all we need is a draw. Morocco got the proverbial "raw deal" in its opening match, losing on an "own goal" (in the 95th minute!) to Iran, 1-0. I had the Under in that game, an easy winner. I did not have a play in Portugal's opener where they drew Iberian rival Spain, 3-3, as all three of their goals came off the foot of the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo. Prevailing wisdom here is that a mentally beaten Morocco will be no match for Ronaldo and company. But I contest that theory. What If Ronaldo isn't at the same level we saw him at against Spain? The Atlas Lions can certainly earn a draw here. Realistically, Morocco probably needs a win here to have any chance of advancing past the group stage. Therefore, look for them to be a lot more aggressive than they were against Iran. That said, this is still a team that "should have" played to a scoreless draw vs. Iran. Had they done so, they would have added to their already impressive total of recent "clean sheets." As I said in my analysis for the matchup w/ the Iranians, Morocco went unbeaten in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches. That's really impressive. It should also be stated that while they lost to Iran, the Atlas Lions truly did outplay Team Melli. They had 13 shots on goal (to Iran's 8) and also had possession of the ball 63% of the time. The reigning Euro Champs would seem to have a clear path to advancing to the Round of 16. Beating Morocco and Iran would get them there and Selecao has lost just two competitive matches since the '14 World Cup. Both times Ronaldo was injured and did not play. However, it needs to be reiterated how this isn't the deepest of teams. Other than Ronaldo, who can score? No one did vs. Spain and they also conceded three goals. Considering the "stinginess" of the Moroccan side, Portugal won't be scoring as many times here as they did in the opener. Count on that. A goal from the Atlas Lions all but assures us this won't be a losing bet. 8* Morocco +1 |
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06-19-18 | Egypt v. Russia +115 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 115 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
8* Russia (2:00 ET): I'm kind of shocked that the host nation is available at plus odds here against an Egyptian side that has to feel extremely devastated after losing 1-0 to Uruguay on Friday, as they conceded the lone goal in the 90th minute. Meanwhile, I know Saudi Arabia was the opposition, but no team won its first match by a wider margin than the Russians, who prevailed 5-0 in the opener of the entire Tournament. Let's not discount the slight edge Russia gains here by having an extra day to prepare for Game #2, not to mention the massive advantage that comes along w/ being the host nation. Great value on a Russian side that so far has had a very fortuitous draw. Egypt elected not to use its best player, Mohammed Salah, in the opener vs. Uruguay and that may have cost them dearly. I know I was happy as I was on Uruguay. While the Egyptians certainly played their hearts out in that match and probably feel they should have come away w/ a draw, the fact is they were outplayed for 90 minutes. While possession numbers weren't too lopsided, Uruguay had far more shots on goal and better chances. Watching the game, I had been very frustrated w/ Uruguay's inability to score before they finally broke through late. Victory obviously won't come as easily for the Russians here as it did vs. Saudi Arabia, but they'll still have plenty of chances to find the back of the net. I said Egypt wouldn't score if Salah didn't play and that's precisely what happened. They are entirely too dependent on him as he accounted for 71% of his team's goals scored during qualifying. Russia seems confident they can neutralize him and the fact he's not 100 percent is a huge help as well. The Pharohs are winless in their L5 matches (0-3-2) and have been held w/o a goal three times. With their top player not fit and playing the host country, this is not an ideal draw for them. Remember, this is their first WC appearance since 1990 and they are also one of the lower ranked teams in the entire draw (according to FIFA). 8* Russia |
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06-19-18 | Senegal +0.5 v. Poland | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
8* Senegal +0.5 (11:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the "Asian Handicap" for this play, which means we win if the game is a draw OR (obviously) if our side prevails outright. I like Senegal getting a half-goal in this situation as I believe them to be every bit as talented as their favored counterparts in Poland, if not more. Group H is perceived to be the most "wide-open" of the entire draw and if there is to be an "upset," I believe it would be here and that could have major ramifications for the rest of the group and possibly have Senegal advance to the round of 16 alongside group favorite Colombia. The +0.5 is a nice luxury to have here. Qualifying for this year's WC came fairly easy for Senegal. The Lions of Teranga took 14 points in their six matches (four wins) and scored 10 goals in the process. They didn't lose and one of the two draws saw them give up the lead in the 88th minute. It's a talented group, led by Sadio Mane, who was Liverpool's second best player this past Premier League campaign, behind only Mohamed Salah. It's the first World Cup appearance since that miraculous run to the quarterfinal round in 2002 (which included an opening rd win over France) and while no African side has ever won a WC, I believe this one can certainly make some noise in the group stage. Poland comes in at 8th in the FIFA rankings, but I have to wonder if that's too high. The team is highly dependent on Robert Lewandowski, whose 16 goals were tops in UEFA qualifying. However, some of the other key players simply did not have impressive seasons w/ their respective clubs. Quite frankly, I don't think it's a stretch to say Senegal is the deeper side here. This will be Poland's first WC appearance since '06 and they haven't made it out of the group stage since 1986. They are likely going to be w/o defender Kamil Glik on Tuesday, which would be a key absence. I see a draw being a likely scenario here (which would be potentially huge for Senegal) and that's all we need. 8* Senegal +0.5 |
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06-19-18 | Japan v. Colombia -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 45 h 51 m | Show |
10* Colombia (8:00 AM ET): Already in the first "round" of group play, we've seen a number of the favorites struggle or out-and-out disappoint. Brazil and Argentina had to settle for draws in their respective first matches while over in Group F, Germany was beaten by Mexico. Uruguay and France needed late scores in their games to come away w/ three points, leaving only Belgium (beat Panama 3-0 Monday) as the lone group fave who really performed as you might expect (even then, the Belgians were tied 0-0 at half). That brings us to Group H, which ironically enough was perceived to be the most "wide open" in the draw. Colombia is the betting favorite to win, but still at plus odds. However, I believe Los Cafeteros to be priced far too low for this opening match against group long shot Japan. This looks like a real value play to me. Now there is a reason for the value and an "elephant in the room" that certainly needs addressing. Colombia is expected to be w/o its best player, James Rodriguez, on Tuesday. Considered to be one of the best players in the entire world, Rodriguez missed a training session on Friday due to muscle fatigue as his left calf had been bothering him. On the short list to win the "Golden Boot" (tournament's best player) here is Russia, Rodriguez won that very honor four years ago in Brazil by scoring six goals (led all players) in five matches. He found the back of the net six times during qualifying for Russia. As big a loss as Rodriguez would be, there are a number of players that could step up and collectively fill the void. It also helps to be playing a team you beat 4-1 four years ago in Brazil. Japan has its own issues coming into Russia as just two months ago, they sacked manager Vahid Halilhodzic, leaving replacement Akira Nishino ill-prepared for the biggest event in the sport. The Japanese team is comprised of a lot of veteran players, but only two teams in the entire draw are ranked lower in the FIFA rankings (Saudi Arabia and Russia). It's the top tier teams that usually give Colombia trouble and the Blue Samurais simply are not in that class. Rodriguez or no Rodriguez, I believe Los Cafeteros will roll in their WC opener. 10* Colombia |
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06-17-18 | Mexico v. Germany -195 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -195 | 42 h 0 m | Show |
6* Germany (11:00 AM ET): No country has repeated as WC Champs since Brazil in 1962 (the days of Pele!). But that won't stop the Germans from trying to do the honors here in Russia. The 2014 champs come in as a decided Group F favorite w/ an experienced group guided by Joachim Low. Note the difference in odds between them and Mexico, the perceived "second choice" to make it through Group E. Based on that and the German talent on hand, I'm more than willing to lay the price here in what should be an easy victory for the favorites on Sunday. Recent form has been far from impressive (just one win in the last six International affairs!), but I have little concern over the top ranked team according to the FIFA World Rankings. When it came to World Cup qualifying, Low's side was impeccable as they won all 10 matches, conceding only four goals in the process. Let us also not forget they won the Confederations Cup last year (arguably w/ a "B-squad"), routing Mexico 4-1 along the way. Going all the way back to 1985, Die Mannschaft has lost only one time to the Mexicans. Lackadaisical starts plagued them in those recent friendlies plagued them, but given the stage, I would not expect that to be an issue here. Germany scored 43 times during qualifying (again, conceded only four goals), which was tied for the highest total among all European nations. In the last World Cup, they scored more times from set pieces (5x) than any other team. Not only are they the defending champs, they've made the Final 4 each of the last three WC's. While Germany has been extremely successful in recent World Cups, the same cannot be said for El Tri, who has been eliminated in the Rd of 16 six straight times. In terms of depth, there is simply no comparison between the two sides here. I would not be shocked at all if this one is decided by multiple goals, so at less than a 2:1 favorite, Germany looks like a true bargain for this opening match. While Mexico isn't bad on the back end, they struggled to gain possession in the midfield and that will cost them severely against an opponent this talented. 6* Germany |
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06-16-18 | Nigeria v. Croatia -126 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
10* Croatia (3:00 ET): Behind favorite Argentina, the race for second place in Group D is a little wide open. Croatia is the team getting the nod from the oddsmakers to make it through the group stage and I fully expect The Blazers to advance. This first match, against Nigeria, will likely set the tone in the group. To me, Group D has only been dubbed "the Group of Death" because one group has to get that designation. The top two are pretty clear cut to me here, moreso than some other groups in this year's draw. I'm on Croatia to win big here. Granted, Nigeria has plenty of potential. But there are also plenty of reasons to expect the Super Eagles to fall short of that potential here in Russia. First off, they have not exactly been in top form of late. Their last four International Friendlies produced zero victories and - according to FIFA - they are actually the lowest rated team in the group at #48 in the world. Then, you have the issue of Coach Gernot Rohr and the controversy he created with his own country's media, accusing them of accepting bribes for favorable player coverage. That seems like it would serve as a distraction heading into the team's biggest game in four years. Since becoming an independent nation, Croatia has never advanced past the group stage. That could change this year however as the team definitely has the potential - and favorable draw - to do so. What Vatreni must do here though is take advantage of Nigeria's suspect goaltending situation. There are no real viable options for Rohr to turn to here and his preferred option - 19 year old Francis Uzoho - has only 180 minutes of La Liga experience under his belt and is likely to be exposed. Croatia had its issues in qualifying in UEFA Group I, finishing behind Iceland (who ironically has longer odds to make it through the group stage), but this team also sports one of the most talented midfields in the draw - specifically Luka Modric. I see a motivated Croatian side coming up big Saturday afternoon as this - to me - is their best shot at three points in the group stage. 10* Croatia |
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06-16-18 | Australia v. France OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 50 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
8* Over Australia/France (6:00 AM ET): Prior to the complete of Spain-Portugal, every match (all 3 of them!) in this year's World Cup ended w/ a clean sheet. I don't expect that here and if it does, then it probably means it was a "long" 90 minutes for the Australians. France, the prohibitive Group C favorite, is expected to win its first match w/ relative ease. Their strength is on the offensive end, so one should reasonably expect a multi-goal effort here against an Australian side that should be completely overmatched on the back end. But, at the same, time Les Blues' own back end looked pretty shaky in its final WC warmup against the United States last week, despite conceding just the one goal. Over is the play here in the opener of Group C action. France has a legit shot at winning the whole thing this year, but will have to guard against overconfidence in the group stage. This team boasts incredible depth and should - theoretically - overwhelm the Australians rather easily. An early goal is not out of the question and from there, look for a wide open game. Again, a suspect defense from the French could - and probably will - lead to them giving up a goal here. Shaky depth on the backend has been exacerbated by the likely absence of Djibril Sidibe here. His likely replacement (Benjamin Pavard) is making his WC debut Saturday morning. Hugo Lloris is far from my favorite goalkeeper in this event. He allowed more goals (1) than he had saves against a subpar American team in the Friendly last week. Australia is inexperienced, has a new coach and as a result, the Socceroos are considered the longshot in Group C. Qualifying for this World Cup did not come easy as it required two-legged playoffs against Syria and Honduras. Expect an "underdog strategy" to be employed here, however, meaning an all-out assault on the offensive end. That's what worked for them during qualifying and I don't see new HC Bert van Marwijk changing much w/ such limited time to prepare with this team. 8* Over Australia/France |
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06-15-18 | Iran v. Morocco UNDER 2 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
10* Under Iran/Morocco (11:00 AM ET): With all the turmoil surrounding La Roja (Spain), all of a sudden, Group B is a bit of a wide open affair. The two Iberian rivals (Spain and Portugal) were the two presumed favorites to advance to the Round of 16, but w/ Spain firing HC Julen Lopetegui two days before the event was set to begin, Iran and Morocco have been given "new life." If one side were to pick up three points here, it has the potential to be huge. But what I see is an incredibly low-scoring affair, one with possibly no goals scored at all! Certainly, recent form from both sides indicates goal scoring will be difficult to come by in this one. Take the Under. Morocco overcame being grouped w/ the 2015 African Champs (Ivory Coast) to go undefeated in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches! That's pretty remarkable. On the back end, they are led by Mehdi Benatia, who has an arguement to be included among the top defenders in this entire tournament. But, as you might have guessed, goal scoring has been a bit of an issue for the Atlas Lions. Three of their first four matches in qualifying were 0-0 draws. Virtually all of their goals in qualifying came in two matches against two completely overmatched sides. Iran was similarly stingy in qualifying. They allowed just two goals in 10 matches and both game in the final one, once they knew they'd already qualified for the WC. Needless to say, nine straight clean sheets is really impressive and Team Melli can match Morocco in terms of pressing in the midfield. So this figures to be a pretty "ugly" match where neither side will have many scoring opportunities. Also, might the Moroccan players be a little "down" here after it was announced the country lost its bid to host the 2026 WC? Something to consider. 10* Under Iran/Morocco |
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06-15-18 | Uruguay -164 v. Egypt | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 94 h 58 m | Show |
8* Uruguay (8:00 AM ET): Given what a prohibitive favorite Uruguay is in Group A (which also includes tournament host Russia), I'm a bit surprised to see them priced so low for this opening match. They start w/ an Egypt side that is one of two widely expected NOT to advance past the group stage (Saudi Arabia being the other). Compounding the Egyptians problems Friday is the health of Mohammed Salah, who suffered a shoulder injury in the Champions League final playing for Liverpool. I feel the favorite rolls in this one. Uruguay has a nice combo of experience and youth that make them the clear favorite in Group A. Consider that La Celeste finished second in the CONMEBOL qualfying despite their two best players - Luis Suarez (four games) and Edinson Cavani (two games) - missing time. Cavani led all South American players w/ 10 goals during WC qualifying. Up the middle, the starting XI has been revamped w/ an infusion of youth. Suarez led his country to a semi-final berth back in 2010 and this year's group certainly appears to be stronger on paper. With the Egyptian side, all the talk centers around Salah, whose status likely won't be determined until a few hours before kickoff. Salah accounted for 71% of his team's goals during WC qualifying, so his absence would be an incredible blow and I can't see the Pharohs finding the back of the net w/o him. Even if he does make it on the pitch, he's just one player and clearly not healthy. Presence isn't nearly enough to beat a far more talented opponent. Note this is Egypt's 1st WC appearance since 1990 and they come in at #45 in the FIFA rankings. Only a handful of teams in this tournament place lower. Goalkeeper Essam El-Hadary is a nice story, but he's 45 years old. He would be the oldest player to take the pitch in WC history. The current price does not reflect what a mismatch this truly is. 8* Uruguay |
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03-04-18 | Chelsea v. Manchester City -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
8* Manchester United (3:00 ET): OK, this should be a walk in the park for Man U against Crystal Palace. No one is catching Man City this year (16 points up on the field), but the Red Devils are desperately trying to hold down the #2 spot in the table as both Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool are hot on their heels. Thus a visit to face the injury plagued Eagles will be welcomed. Crystal Palace is getting both Martin Kelly and Jeffrey Schlupp back in time for Monday's match, but that will make little difference for a club in poor form (zero wins in L5 matches). While Man U is second from the top in the table, Crystal Palace is second from the bottom. A total mismatch that the visitor will win w/ ease. Even with the returns, Crystal Palace is still missing a ton of talent and when you consider they'd stand little chance of winning at full strength, you start to see the value on Man U. Over its last five matches, Man U has conceded only two goals and I don't see them getting scored on here considering they've allowed an EPL-low (tied w/ Man City) 20 on the season. On the other side of the ledger, Crystal Palace has found the back of the net only 25 times in 28 matches. Only West Brom, Huddersfield, Swansea and Burnley have scored at a less prodigous rate this season. Crystal Palace was dealing w/ 12 injuries going into last weekend's match w/ Tottenham. It was a brutal 1-0 loss w/ the Eagles conceding the lone goal in the 89th minute. One would have to go back to January 2nd to find the last time this club didn't score 1 or 0 goals in a match. They were beaten 4-0 at Old Trafford back on September 30th. That drops them to 0-14-3 all-time vs. Man U in EPL play and they've been held goalless in 13 of those matches. The absence of Wilfried Zaha looms large as Palace has lost all eight matches when he has not been present this season, scoring only once and conceding 18 times. 8* Manchester United |
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07-07-16 | France v. Germany | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 78 h 2 m | Show |
5* France +0.5 (3:00 ET): The tournament hosts only needing to be even after 90 minutes is a nice luxury to have here, even though the price to pay is somewhat steep. Ever since falling behind Ireland 1-0 early (3' penalty kick), France has looked really impressive. They poured it on in the second half vs. Ireland, scoring twice in a short time frame, and then absolutely blitzed and admittedly overmatched Icelandic side, 5-2, a match where I had the 1st Half Over and cashed in the 19th minute (four total goals scored in first 45 mins). Clearly, it won't be that easy here against Germany in the semis, but I feel that Les Bleus certainly won't be losing within 90 minutes. Playing in front of a partisan crowd, France doesn't need any extra advantages, but they'll have a big one here and that's being at full strength. Germany, meanwhile, could have as many as four key contributors missing here. Mats Hummels has been booked, so we know he's out and both midfielder Sami Khedira and striker Mario Gomez are injured. Making matters worse is tat Khedira's likely replacement Bastian Schweinsteiger is also probably out. While they didn't concede any goals during the group stage, it's not as if Germany was overly dominant against Ukraine, Poland and Northern Ireland. They saved their best for Slovakia in the Round of 16 (won 3-0), but then narrowly escaped Italy (penalty kicks) in the quarterfinals. Don't discount the impact that match with the Azzurri has on this team here. France has been the top-scoring side in this tournament w/ 11 goals. Obviously, that's heavily influenced by what they did to Iceland Sunday. Yet, the bottom line is that Les Bleus is unbeaten in their last nine matches overall, including four wins and a draw here at Euro 2016. Yes, Germany is unbeaten in its last six fixtures and has conceded just the lone goal at this tournament. But, short-handed, the Mannschaft are up against it here. 5* France +0.5 |
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07-06-16 | Wales v. PORTUGAL OVER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 54 h 1 m | Show |
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07-02-16 | Italy v. Germany UNDER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 101 h 42 m | Show |
5* Under Italy/Germany (3:00 ET): The reigning World Cup champions have looked every bit the part of favorite here in France as Joachim Low's side has yet to taste defeat here in France with three victories and one meaningless draw to its credit. The latest win came via 3-0 fashion and Germany still has yet to concede a single goal in this entire tournament, the only team remaining in the field that can still make such a claim. However, many are still quick to tout Italy's defense as the best in the draw. They come off a "clean sheet" themselves, perhaps the most impressive result of the entire tournament, that being a 2-0 domination of defending Euro Cup champ Spain. The lone goal that the Azzurri has conceded thus far came in their own relatively meaningless third game. Take the Under here as this could very well be a scoreless draw at the end of 90 minutes. There have not been more than two goals scored in any Italy match so far in the tournament. The same held true, at least in the group stage, for Germany. They then blitzed Slovakia, but as alluded to earlier, penetrating Italy will prove to be far more difficult. The key here for the Azzurri would be to get the lead. That is something that Germany certainly doesn't want. Few, if any, are more adept at protecting a lead than the Italians, who simply didn't give Spain many chances in the Round of 16. By the way, Italy has dominated this head to head rivalry w/ a 4-0-4 record in the last eight competitive matches. They've kept a clean sheet in half of those fixtures and held Germany to just six goals total. But what about Italy scoring? We already know that midfielder Daniele De Rossi is out for this game w/ a high thigh bruise. Also, they'll need the ball to score. So far, Germany has controlled possession 69% of the time in its games, the highest rate of any side in the tournament. Then there's this little tidbit as Low's team hasn't conceded a goal in the last 480 minutes of major tournament play going back to the 2014 World Cup semifinal. If there's no scoring at all here, that would not surprise me. 5* Under Italy/Germany |
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07-01-16 | BELGIUM v. Wales UNDER 2 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
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06-27-16 | Iceland +1 v. England | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
10* Iceland +1 (3:00 ET): Note I am taking Iceland +1 here. This has been the Cinderella story of the tournament thus far as the Euro Cup neophyte has made the Round of 16. Iceland shockingly has yet to lose here in France, pulling off one win and two draws in group play. In each fixture, they conceded only one goal. The opposition will be stiff Monday as they take on heavily favored England, who made its way through the group stage w/ one win and two draws, same as Iceland. While those results were cause for celebration in Reykjavic and beyond, in London, they were considered quite disappointing. I'd be leery of trusting The Three Lions at this stage of the game. This one will at least be tied at the end of 90 minutes. Iceland is most likely to employ a defensive strategy here, one that can frustrate the English much the same way that Hungary and Portugal were left frustrated as well. There has been consistency with the Iceland Starting XI whereas I expect changes from Roy Hodgson. Yes, England has done well in terms of possession, but they are not converting at the rate you'd like to see. Even if The Three Lions were to win this in extra time, I imagine it's going to be another frustrating result for them. They have not won in the knockout round of a European Championship since 1996! Iceland is actually unbeaten in its last nine competitive fixtures. I really think that Hodgson blew it by making all those changes to his Starting XI prior to the Slovakia match. The result was a goalless draw w/ Slovakia that cost them the group. I look for there to be a sort-of "carry over" effect to this match, at least early on. Remember that this side also trailed Wales early and had it not been for a stoppage time score, they wouldn't have won at all in the group stage. All of their goals thus far have come from the 56' minute on. Again, Iceland is playing well right now and I expect them to do no worse than to get this thing into extra time. 10* Iceland (+1) |
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06-27-16 | SPAIN v. Italy UNDER 2 | Top | 0-2 | Push | 0 | 15 h 9 m | Show |
8* Under Italy/Spain (12:00 ET): Make no mistake about it, when it comes to the Round of 16, this is the marquee matchup. It's a rematch of the 2012 Final, won easily by Spain, 4-0. The defending champs ripped through their first two opponents during the group stage, beating Czech Republic and Turkey w/o conceding a goal, but then got surprised their last time out in a 2-1 loss to Croatia. Because they failed to win Group D, La Roja now draws Italy, who is also off a loss themselves. But in the case of the Azzurri, a 1-0 loss to Ireland didn't cost them Group E. Considering each side here didn't concede until their third game, I do not anticipate much scoring here. Take the Under. While some might be concerned over Spain's 2-1 loss to Croatia, I think that it's very important to recall just how well this side has played in past Euro Cup matches. They were unbeaten in their previous 14 w/ 11 wins and three draws. Before conceding twice against Croatia, La Roja had conceded only one time in its previous 11 fixtures and was actually working on a remarkable stretch of 690 minutes w/o conceding at all. Offensively, while they did bury Turkey, they had scored no more than one goal in any of their other last four matches. It's a similar story for Italy, who hadn't conceded in four competitive matches before losing 1-0 to Ireland. They haven't scored more than once in five of the past seven matches. Tactically, this is a sound side that can frustrate Spain. I expect this to be an incredibly defensive-minded battle where at most one goal will be scored. Quite frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if a scoreless draw resulted in penalty kicks here. I certainly do not anticipate a repeat of the 2012 Final. The Azzurri was one of only five sides during group play to concede 1 or 0 goals. 8* Under Italy/Spain |
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06-26-16 | Hungary v. BELGIUM -139 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
8* Belgium (3:00 ET): With the way the bracket is set up, I think you have to like Belgium's chances of possibly reaching the Final. After dropping their Euro Cup opener (to Italy), they've responded with B2B clean sheets against Sweden and Ireland, allowing them to finish tied with the Azzurri atop Group E. Their round of 16 opponent is Hungary, the surprise Group F winner (just five points) that finished with just one win and two draws. Suffice to say, Hungary has exceeded expectations thus far, but conceding the three goals vs. Portugal has to be at least a little bit concerning. I'm on Belgium here. Remember that Kevin De Bruyne did not play vs. Italy. That wasn't the sole reason Belgium lost that game, but it was certainly a contributing factor. But since his return, the team hasn't even conceded a goal. This is a club that came into Euro 2016 ranked second in the world. Hungary is ranked only 20th. The only time in the last 20 years where these two sides faced off came back in 2009 w/ Belgium winning easily, 3-0. Passing accuracy has actually been key so far for the Red Devils (80%) as only Spain and Germany have been better in that department so far. To put things in their proper perspective, it had been 50 years since Hungary had made it out of the group stage at a major tournament such as this one. Though they tied Wales (who awaits the winner of this one in the quarterfinals) for top scoring team in group play (six goals), three of Hungary's six goals came outside the box. I think that the "moment" might prove to be a little too big for Hungary here and having conceded the three goals their last time out (more than Belgium has conceded the entire tournament) is a little concerning given Belgian form and all the scoring options they possess. 8* Belgium |
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06-26-16 | Republic of Ireland v. France -205 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show |
5* France (9:00 AM ET): Much has been made over the "lopsided" bracket in the Euro Cup. Clearly, the half of the draw that contains Germany, Spain, Italy, France and England is going to be tough. But the host nation (France) should have little difficulty in reaching the quarterfinals as they draw Ireland early Sunday. Les Bleus finished group play w/ two wins and a draw and took Group A w/ seven points. Ireland, meanwhile, was a third place finisher in Group E as they had one draw, one win and one loss. Being the host certainly gives France some advantages and sure enough they are unbeaten in their last seven fixtures at Stade de Gerland. They are also unbeaten in their last five vs. Ireland (W3 D2) going back to 1981! Ireland has never played here in Lyon nor have they ever previously progressed to the knockout stage here in the European Championships. So the fact that France has lost three straight times themselves in the knockout stage seems fairly irrelevant. Ireland has scored just one goal against France in the last 35 years! Prior to the draw vs. Switzerland, France had won eight of nine fixtures. Their +3 goal differential during group play was tied for tops among all teams. Meanwhile, Ireland's goal differential was -2. They would not have gotten through if not for Robbie Brady's late goal vs. Italy. France has conceded just one time in the tournament and didn't allow a goal in either of the last two matches. Remember they had little to nothing to play for against Switzerland when it was a 0-0 draw. Meanwhile, Ireland's opponent (Italy) had little to play for in the previous fixture. Poor showings vs. Sweden and Belgium were more telling. Another key edge here has been the time to prepare for the hosts. They've been off for a full week while Ireland's had just three days between matches. 5* France |