Wolves vs Hornets 
6 EST, Saturday 
7-Unit bet on the Hornets priced as a 5.5-point underdog. 

The following NBA betting algorithm has compiled a 17-18 SU record and a 23-12 ATS mark good for 66% ATS winning bets since 2017. The required criteria are: 

Bet on home underdogs of 3.5 or more points. 

They are shooting 46% or better from the field. 

They are out rebounding their foes by 5 or more rebounds per game. 

The opponent is scoring an average of 111 PPG. 

USC vs Nebraska 
10-UNIT BET on USC priced as a 4.5-point underdog. 
7:30 EST, Saturday, Week 10 

Game Preview: USC Trojans vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers — Why the Trojans Will Pull the Upset in Lincoln 

The No. 23 USC Trojans head into Memorial Stadium on Saturday night as 4.5-point underdogs against Big Ten rival Nebraska, but advanced analytics and matchup dynamics suggest this is a prime opportunity for USC to not only cover—but win outright. 

From the Predictive Models and the Omnipotent Database: USC has been a great bet for decades coming off their BYE week and have compiled a 51-15 SU (77%) and 40-26 ATS for 61% winning bets; when priced between a 3.5- and 7.5-point favorite has seen them go 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS for 80% winning bets.  

The predictive model shows a high probability that USC will score 31 or more points, have fewer turnovers (win the turnover margin) and have more minutes of time of possession than Nebraska. In past games in which USC met or exceeded these performance measues has seen them compile a 34-0 SU and 27-6-1 ATS record good for 82% winning bets.  

Elite Offense vs. Vulnerable Defense 

USC boasts the No. 1 offense in the nation per SP+ rankings, averaging a staggering 530 total yards per game, including 326.1 passing yards and 203.9 rushing yards. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been electric, throwing for 2,180 yards, 15 touchdowns, and completing 68.1% of his passes. His top target, Makai Lemon, averages 108.3 receiving yards per game and ranks among the top receivers in the country.  

Nebraska’s defense, while statistically strong against the pass (allowing just 127.5 yards per game, 2nd nationally), has not faced a top-50 passing attack all season. USC’s aerial assault will be the first true test for the Cornhuskers’ secondary, and the Trojans’ explosive play rate—10.6% of plays gaining 20+ yards—is likely to expose cracks in Nebraska’s coverage.  

Advanced Metrics Favor USC 

According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, USC has a 72.1% chance to win, the fourth-highest FPI grade in the Big Ten at 23.4, compared to Nebraska’s 9.3, which ranks 10th. SP+ also projects a USC win by 1.7 points, with a final score of 30-28, reinforcing the notion that the Trojans are undervalued by the betting markets.  

Key Matchups and X-Factors 

Red Zone Defense: USC ranks No. 2 nationally in red zone defense, while Nebraska is 125th, a glaring mismatch that could decide the game.  

Quarterback Pressure: Nebraska QB Dylan Raiola has been sacked 26 times, and USC’s defense ranks 6th in pressure rate and 14th in sack rate, suggesting Raiola will be under duress all night.  

Turnovers and Discipline: USC has committed fewer penalties and has a better turnover margin than Nebraska, which could be crucial in a tight road game.  

Narrative Momentum 

Despite a 2-6 road record dating back to 2024, USC is coming off a bye and has historically performed well in such situations. Their earlier win over Michigan after a bye week shows they can reset and dominate when rested. Nebraska, meanwhile, has struggled to secure signature wins and barely escaped Northwestern last week despite being outgained.  

Prediction 

USC’s offensive firepower, defensive pressure, and advanced analytics all point toward a Trojan victory. While the betting line has shifted from -6.5 to -4.5, indicating growing confidence in Nebraska, the underlying data suggests USC is poised to silence the blackout crowd in Lincoln and keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. 

Final Score: USC 34, Nebraska 27 

Penn State vs Ohio State 

Noon EST 
7-Unit bet on Penn State priced as a 20.5-point underdog. 

If you get a decent price on the money line, I would put no more than 1 extra unit on that bet – just in case. There are already 15 games in which a 17.5 or more-point underdog won the game outright, which matches last season’s tally of shocking upsets. In 2023, there were 23 dogs of this size win outright, which is the most in any season since 1980. The trend of these major upsets has been on a steady rise and two other games involving ranked favorites are in serious upset situations, which are available on the site for purchase and one of them is my 10-UNIT Upset Game of the Year.  

The following betting algorithm has compiled a remarkable 49-20 ATS record good for 71% winning bets since 1992. The required criteria are: 

Bet on underdog between 10 and 21 points. 

They average 45 or fewer penalty yards per game. 

They dominated the time of possession in their last game holding the ball for 36 or more minutes. 

Before the season even started the Circa had opening lines for all major games and in some cases, top-rated teams had lines for almost every game. This game opened back in August with OSU priced as a 3.5-point favorite and given the turmoil surrounding the PSU team and losing record has seen this line explode to 20.5 points. Moves of double-digits or more from the preseason opening line are an excellent and highly profitable starting point to play against the trend.  

New head coach and new quarterback but the rest of the team is the same and they had a BYE to get their act together. Penn State is tied for the most on-score losses this season and had a 7-point lead in OT against Oregon. That loss just hurt the team more than anyone thought possible.  

Only 30% of the tickets bet and 28% of the handle as compiled by 7 of the largest book sin the world is on Penn State. Contrarian bets in college football underdogs in weeks 8 through 12 have seen the shocking games pushing their ranked opponent to the brink of losing. Most of the time, these large, ranked favorites win the game, but they rarely cover the spread when on the road. 

New Mexico vs UNLV 
3 EST 
7-Unit bet UNDER 61.5 points. 

The following CFB betting algorithm has compiled a highly profitable 36-14 record good for cashing 72% of tickets placed. The requirements are: 

Bet the Under priced between 56.5 and 63 points.  

The home team allowed 50 or more points in their previous game.  

That team is averaging 34 or more PPG. 

If the game [pits conference foes and occurs after week 8, the UNDER has gone a jaw-dropping 21-5 for 81% winning bets. 

College Football Week 10 
Georgia Tech vs NC State 
7:30 EST 
7-Unit bet on NC State priced as a 5.5-popint underdog. 

Betting on home dogs between pick and 9.5 points facing an undefeated foe from game number 9 on out to the end of the season and with that foe coming off a win and an ATS cover have gone a highly profitable 16-16 SU and 23-9 ATS good for 72% winning bets. Betting against undefeated road favorites from week 9 on out that are coming off a win and ATS win hve gone a terrible 105-26 SU (which is quite good) but 51-79-1 ATS. So, they win, but in a game that is much closer than most believe possible.