Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-13-22 | Texans +4.5 v. Giants | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON TEXANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Giants went 6-2 before their bye week, arguably one of the worst 6-2 teams we have seen in a while, and they lost at Seattle by 14 points before their week off. They have been underdogs in six of eight games and in the games they were favored, it was by one and three points so this has been the most they have been favored by due to playing a poor team. They have relied on Saquon Barkley who looks like he did a couple years ago as he is fully healthy and he will be the key target for the Houston defense. The Giants are ranked No. 24 in total offense and No. 17 in total defense and this against a schedule ranked No. 20 in the league. The quarterback play has hindered the offense as Daniel Jones has been okay but not above average and he has been able to use his scrambling ability to keep drives alive. The Giants are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 home games after covering the spread in four out of their last five games. Yes, Houston is a poor team but the linesmakers take that into consideration and the Texans are 4-3-1 ATS which includes a 2-1-1 ATS record on the road. The lone ATS came at the Raiders but that was a game they actually outgained Las Vegas but the game was sealed on a 73-yard interception that was returned for a touchdown so that was a 10-14 point swing. The offense is not the worst but it is near the bottom in most categories and Houston will once again rely on the strength of its running game which can have success against a poor rushing defense. Quarterback Davis Mills has not been great but has not had any blowup games so as long as he can manage with minimal mistakes. Receiver Brandon Cooks has shown frustration and did not play last game for personal reasons, aka he weas benched, but is back this week. The Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites in a game involving two defensive teams allowing between 18 and 23 ppg, after a loss by 10 or more points. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (245) Houston Texans |
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11-13-22 | Browns +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 17-39 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Sunday Ultimate Underdog. Miami could be the biggest fraud in the NFL and the analytics could be proving that. Despite six wins, 10 teams are ranked ahead of the Dolphins that have fewer wins. To their credit, the quarterback carousel that occurred in the middle of their nine games because of the injuries definitely held them back and Miami is still the No. 2 ranked passing team in the league thanks to big plays and it is middle of the pack in third down conversions. The major problem for the Dolphins has been the defense as they are No. 23 overall and No. 25 in scoring defense as they have allowed 27 or more points in five of their eight games including four of the last six games and all of this is a problem against an underrated Cleveland offense. The short line is going the public lined up on the home side here but sharp money has dropped this line and while we would love the opener, this is more than good. Miami 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 6.5 or more yppl in two consecutive games. Cleveland is coming off a big win over Cincinnati two weeks ago which snapped a four-game losing streak and the Browns have been part of some bad fortunes this season. They are 3-5 and four of those losses have been by three points or less and two of those have come on the road where they actually outgained the opposition and the only time they were outgained in those four games was against the Chargers by only 22 total yards. Point being, Cleveland has hung around in every game but one which was against New England where turnovers did them in. The Browns are again abusing defenses with their running game as they are No. 3 in the league in rushing offense and have amassed 171 yards or more in six games. The Browns are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play against home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after allowing 5.5 or less passing ypa last game going up against an opponent after gaining 7.0 or more passing ypa in two straight games. This situation is 37-9 ATS (80.4 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (251) Cleveland Browns |
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11-13-22 | Thunder v. Knicks -5 | Top | 145-135 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK KNICKS for our NBA Game of the Week. New York is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday to get to .500 once again and it improved to 4-2 at home. The four wins have comes against some bad teams in the Pistons twice, the Magic and the Hornets while the two losses came against solid teams in Boston and Atlanta and the Knicks will be facing another team from that former group. Overall, the Knicks are 1-5 against the top ten teams and 5-1 against teams outside that top ten with the one defeat coming against Brooklyn. Their defense has been one of the best in the league as they are ranked No. 3 in shooting defense including No. 8 in three-point shooting defense and face a below average offense. New York is 28-14 ATS in its last 42 games when playing six or more games in 10 days. Oklahoma City snapped a four-game losing streak with a win over Toronto on Friday but the Raptors were again shorthanded playing without Pascal Siakam. The Thunder has not been as horrible as expected as they are 5-7 but only one of those wins have come against a team that was at least close to 100 percent healthy which was a surprising win at Dallas as a 10.5-point underdog in October. As mentioned, the offense, despite scoring points because of pace, is just No. 22 in shooting including No. 28 from behind the arc and Oklahoma City is ranked No. 28 in overall offensive efficiency. The Thunder are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Here, we play against underdogs coming off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games. this situation is 34-14 ATS (70.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (518) New York Knicks |
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11-12-22 | Blazers v. Mavs -5 | Top | 112-117 | Push | 0 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Saturday Enforcer. Dallas has been a non-cover disaster for bettors as it has failed to cover the number in seven straight games, going 4-3 straight up over that stretch. The Mavericks are coming off a mini two-game roadtrip to Orlando and Washington and lost those games by seven and eight points respectively as favorites to fall to 1-4 on the road. They head back home for the start of a five-game homestand to try and break that two-game slide and improve their 5-1 record in Dallas that includes four straight wins and we are getting value here based on the recent ATS skid. The Mavericks have played solid defense as they are No. 8 in defensive efficiency and while scoring has been down, this is mostly due to pace as the come in ranked No. 11 in offensive efficiency. Dallas is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. Portland opened its six-game roadtrip with a split in Phoenix but has won its last three games including a solid win on Thursday at New Orleans by 11 points as a nine-point underdog. The Blazers have been one of the bigger surprises in the Western Conference as they are 9-3 and are currently in second place in the conference behind the more surprising Utah Jazz. They have gotten it done on the road with a 6-1 record which is also keeping this number down and Portland has been the best cover teams in the league at 10-2 ATS and this is a good spot to go against them in the final game of this trip that has had them on the road for the last 12 days. Portland is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 road games after allowing 100 points or less. Here, we play on favorites off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off an upset win as a road underdog. This situation is 102-59 ATS (63.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (516) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-12-22 | Washington v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the OREGON DUCKS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Washington defeated Oregon St. on a late field goal to improve to 4-2 in the Pac Ten and 7-2 overall but now finds itself in a tough spot facing one of the hottest teams in the country. The Huskies are just 1-2 on the road and those losses both came when favored and this is the first time this season that they have gotten points which shows the slate they have faced. The passing attack is the best in the country but it is a very unbalanced offense as Washington is ranked No. 99 in rushing offense. The defense allows 26.9 ppg which is just No. 75 in the country and the one offense it has faced that is potent was UCLA and they allowed 500 yards. Oregon has reeled off eight straight wins following its loss against Georgia in the season opener where it could muster only three points and 313 yards of offense. Since then, the Ducks have scored at least 41 points in every game and has gone over 500 yards six times. The run has put the Ducks at No. 6 in the CFP rankings with the loss against the Bulldogs obviously not being a bad one as they are the top ranked of the three 8-1 teams from the Pac 12. Quarterback Bo Nix has been outstanding with 2,495 yards passing and 22 touchdowns and just five interceptions while rushing for 457 yards and 13 touchdowns. There is one key stat that is skewed as Oregon is ranked No. 117 in passing defense but a lot of those yards have come because of teams needing to play catch up and yards piled up in garbage time. Ony a backdoor cover by Washington St. back in September has prevented Oregon from being on a perfect 8-0 ATS run which shows the dominance it has put forth. Here, we play on home favorites averaging 440 or more ypg and after gaining 7.25 or more yppl in two consecutive games going up against teams allowing between 330 and 390 ypg. This situation is 71-27 ATS (72.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (194) Oregon Ducks |
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11-12-22 | Bruins v. Sabres +169 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO SABRES for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Buffalo opened the season red hot by winning seven of its first ten games but has lost four straight and this is the middle game of a tough three-game stretch at home. Losses at Carolina and Tampa Bay were certainly not bad but the Sabres returned home and put up a stinker against Arizona with a 4-1 loss as a -230 favorite. We played on the Sabres Thursday against Vegas but were ambushed in a 7-4 loss and face another tough opponent and are catching an even bigger number. The power plays remains solid for Buffalo as after going 0-4 against Seattle, the Sabres are 11-31 in the man advantage over their last eight games and have scored at least one power play goal in each. This is a strong offense that is ranked No. 2 in the NHL and can give the Boston defense some problems. Boston lost in Toronto last Saturday but has bounced back with a pair of home wins to improve to 12-2-0-0 and the Bruins remain in first place in the Eastern Conference, two points ahead of New Jersey and three points ahead of Carolina. They are a perfect 6-0-0-0 at home but are 4-2-0-0 on the highway where the defense has been not so great, allowing 3.00 gpg compared to just 1.75 gpg allowed at home. To their credit, they have allowed only one power play goal on the road but the Sabres power play is ranked No. 7 in the league at 29 percent. The Boston offense is scoring 4.33 gpg but it averages just 32.8 shots per game so it has been efficient and Buffalo will be looking for a better effort from goalie Eric Comrie who gave up six goals against the Golden Knights. Here, we play against road teams against the money line after allowing one goal or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after allowing five goals or more. This situation is 29-14 (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (66) Buffalo Sabres |
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11-12-22 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -3.5 | Top | 28-43 | Win | 100 | 68 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Kansas has been the story on the Big 12 Conference and it made it into the AP Poll for the first time since 2009 and became bowl eligible with a win over Oklahoma St. last week for the first time since 2008. With that demon having left the building, we can see a letdown this week. The offense has led the way as the Jayhawks are No. 36 overall and No. 15 in scoring with quarterback Jalon Daniels being a big part of that but he remains out after missing the last four games but Jason Bean has performed well in relief yet he has been on the wrong side of their three losses. The defense was the big problem in those games and has been all season as Kansas is No. 113 in total defense including No. 121 in passing defense which falls right into the Texas Tech wheelhouse. Kansas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game. Texas Tech has lost two straight games and four of its last five following a 3-1 so it needs to more wins to make it to a bowl game and this is essentially a must win with remaining games at Iowa St. and at home against Oklahoma. The Red Raiders held their own against TCU last week as they lost by just 10 points on the road and was outgained by only 83 yards. The home team has dominated their games this season, going 8-1 including Texas Tech going 4-1 at home. The Red Raiders are ranked No. 11 in passing offense and while quarterback Behren Morton was forced to leave last week against TCU and is questionable this week but this is not as there is experience behind him that has seen plenty of time. Texas Tech is 6-0 ATS in its last six games coming off a road loss. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a home win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off two consecutive losses by 10 points or more to conference rivals. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) since 1992. 10* (158) Texas Tech Red Raiders |
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11-12-22 | Georgia v. Mississippi State +16.5 | Top | 45-19 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSISSIPPI ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. Georgia is coming off a comminating performance against then CFP No. 1 Tennessee as it allowed fewer than 300 total yards against one of the best offenses in the country but its own offense was not very good as the Bulldogs had a season low 387 yards and a second lowest 27 points. That was against a pretty average defense at home, granted in some wet weather, and now it hits the highway for only its third road game against a much better defense. Georgia has not played a true game since October 1st and narrowly escaped at Missouri and is now a heavy favorite in a very tough spot. Add to the fact this is a night game in the SEC that Georgia has yet to encounter and we all know how these home field edges can make a huge difference. While they stifled the Tennessee offense, they will be seeing a different Air Raid attack here and will be unlikely to even come close to the seven sacks registered last week. Mississippi St. had a scare last week but was able to take out Auburn in overtime to avoid a third straight loss and moved to 3-3 in the SEC and 6-3 overall. The home team is a perfect 6-0 in the Bulldogs six conference games this season and while we cannot call the outright upset here to keep that undefeated run alive, this is just too many points in a situation like this. Known for its offense, Mississippi St. has not been great but the passing game is on point as it is ranked No. 9 in the country behind Will Rogers who has thrown for 2,544 yards with 23 touchdowns and just four interceptions. As mentioned though, the other side will play a pivotal role as Mississippi St. is ranked No. 46 in total defense and No. 49 in scoring defense and it is going to apply a kind of pressure to Stetson Bennett that he has yet to see so another below average effort from the Bulldogs offense is in the cards. Maybe not the upset but a close one is expected. 10* (214) Mississippi St. Bulldogs |
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11-12-22 | Texas State v. South Alabama -16 | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 66 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SOUTH ALABAMA JAGUARS for our Sun Belt Game of the Year. South Alabama is coming off a pair of road wins including against Georgia Southern last week as it rallied from a two-touchdown third quarter deficit to improve to 7-2 overall including 4-1 in the Sun Belt Conference but is not in the best shape to make it to the championship game as it trails Troy by a half-game and that one conference loss came against the Trojans. The Jaguars lost that game by only four points as they were stifled by a strong defense and the other loss was by only one point at UCLA. Both sides of the ball have played above average and should name the score here and there is some added incentive as this is a big revenge game for South Alabama as it lost at Texas St. last season by two points in four overtimes as a road favorite. The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Texas St. has lost three straight games to fall to 3-6 so it needs to win out to be considered for a bowl game which is very unlikely at this point even though those final two games are at home but the Bobcats will have a tough time competing here. A lot of that is due to their horrible road play as they are 0-5 while getting outgained by an average of 114 ypg in those games. They are coming off a tough loss last week against UL-Monroe as they opened up a 21-0 lead but gave all of that back and had a chance to win but missed a 38-yard field goal to end the game that would have won it. The offense has been up and down, mostly the latter, as the Bobcats are No. 121 overall and No. 104 in scoring and this is not a good matchup against a very strong defense that has dominated lesser opponents. Texas St. has been outgained in seven of eight games against FBS teams. The Bobcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. 10* (176) South Alabama Jaguars |
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11-12-22 | Notre Dame v. Navy +15.5 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 61 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NAVY MIDSHIPMEN for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. Navy is coming off a 10-point loss at Cincinnati, the first of four games away from home to close the season which is not ideal as it needs three wins to become bowl eligible. The running game is not the best it has been but it is still very dependable as it is ranked No. 9 in rushing offense and while facing a solid rushing defense here, Notre Dame has struggled at times. The Midshipmen possess an above average defense, ranked No. 49 overall which shortens the games and keeps the offense on the field. Navy is 6-0 ATS in its last six games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 and it makes logical sense because it is so good at ball possession while being a sizable underdog against those top teams which is the case here. Additionally it has covered all four games this season as a double-digit underdog for the same reasoning. The Irish are coming off a big upset as they exposed Clemson last week in a 35-14 victory. It has been three straight wins for Notre Dame thanks to some solid defense that has depended on turnovers but the offense has averaged just 359.8 ypg over its last four games. Notre Dame has been a mystery all season as many are aware of already and there is one pattern that cannot be overlooked. The Irish have taken points four times this season and covered all of those, winning three of those outright over North Carolina, Syracuse and Clemson and in the five games they have laid points, they have covered only once as a 3.5-point favorite against BYU while losing two of those outright against Marshall and Stanford at home no less. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs that are an excellent ball control team averaging 32 or more minutes in time of possession. This situation is 72-34 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (134) Navy Midshipmen |
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11-11-22 | Fresno State -9.5 v. UNLV | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -109 | 83 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our MWC Game of the Month. This could very well have been a contrarian play with Fresno St. having won four straight games and UNLV losing four straight games but we are going with the current momentum in this one as the Bulldogs are finally playing to their potential. They went 10-3 last season and returned 15 starters but got off to a horrible start as following a win over Cal Poly of the FCS, the Bulldogs lost to Oregon St. by three points and then got blown out by USC prior to their bye week. Fresno St. then went to Connecticut and lost as a 22.5-point favorite and then got destroyed at Boise St. before starting its current four-game winning streak. The Bulldogs are a win away from bowl eligibility but more importantly, they control their own destiny at 4-1 in the MWC West Division and have two wins over the only remaining contenders so win out and they are in the championship game. They welcomed back quarterback Jake Haener two games back and all he has done is throw for 722 yards with seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. The defense can dominate here as Fresno St. is ranked No. 49 overall and No. 43 in points allowed and will be facing a below average offense. UNLV opened the season 4-1 but the biggest win came against North Texas and it has been downhill since as mentioned with its four consecutive defeats. There as been a consistency with the Rebels are the favorite has won all nine games involving UNLV so the Rebels have won the games they were supposed to and lost the games they were supposed to as well. Their offense has been pretty bad as they are ranked No. 101 overall and No. 82 in scoring and they have averaged only 11.3 ppg over the last four games. The defense has played better than expected but it is still not very good, ranking No. 67 overall and No. 84 in points allowed and they should get scorched here. Here, we play on road teams averaging between 5.6 to 6.2 yppl and after gaining 525 or more total yards in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl. This situation is 56-22 ATS (71.8 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (123) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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11-11-22 | Stanford v. Wisconsin -3.5 | Top | 50-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the WISCONSIN BADGERS for our CBB Friday Enforcer. College hoops writeups limited due to time constraints. Stanford heads east to take part in the Brew City Battle and while this is a neutral site game, it is in Milwaukee and the Badgers will have the crowd on their side. The Cardinal defeated Pacific by only 10 points despite shooting 60 percent from the floor as it dominated down low but will not have that same luxury here. Forward Spencer Jones who averaged 11 ppg and 4.3 rpg missed the last game and is questionable and his defense will be missed if he cannot go. Wisconsin is coming off a 26-point win over South Dakota at home and while not playing at home, this is an easier trip. Combatting the Stanford size is forward Tyler Wahl who scored 19 points and grabbed 10 rebounds and he is ready for a breakout season. This is a completely different environment for both teams playing on a baseball field and the Badgers should be better prepared as they embarked on a summer tour into France so not only do they have more experience playing together as a team in actual games, but they also have the edge of playing in non-typical arenas which should help with the shooting eyes. 10* (678) Wisconsin Badgers |
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11-11-22 | Michigan State v. Gonzaga -11 | Top | 63-64 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the GONZAGA BULLDOGS as part of our CBB Friday Early Three Pack. College hoops writeups limited due to time constraints. This might be perceived as a sucker line by some as it is rare to see a Michigan St. team getting this many points but it is more a reason. Gonzaga rolled to a 41-point win over North Florida in its opening game as All-American Drew Timme led the way with 22 points on 10-19 shooting and behind him, this team is loaded with athleticism and depth in the backcourt with Rasir Bolton, Nolan Hickman, Malachi Smith and Hunter Sallis. Overall, this team is deep with an eight-man rotation that can rival any team in the nation and the relentless pace will be too much. The Spartans are sill very good but not on pace with some of the more recent editions and it may take a while to get the chemistry right. Michigan St. is coming off a relatively easy win over Northern Arizona by 18 points in its season opener and this is the beginning of a brutal seven-game stretch that will likely give the Spartans the No. 1 toughest ranked schedule in the country when all said and done. Gonzaga is too deep and talented for the Spartans this early in the season. 10* (640) Gonzaga Bulldogs |
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11-11-22 | Toledo v. UABĀ -4 | Top | 93-85 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS as part of our CBB Friday Early Three Pack. College hoops writeups limited due to time constraints. This is a neutral site game in Philadelphia, part of the Barstool Invitational, and the Blazers are between a four and five-point favorite which does not seem close to enough. This is arguably one of the best UAB rosters in a very long time and it showed why it comes into the season as one of the top mid-major teams in the country as the Blazers hung 111 points on Alabama St. in their 44-point, season opening victory. UAB pushes the ball relentlessly and has one of the top backcourts in the country in Jelly Walker and Eric Gaines which we already knew would be a lethal combo but now they add in SE Missouri and ETSU transfer wing Ledarrius Brewer who put in 14 points in the opener after averaging just over that in his first four seasons. Toledo will be a top team in the MAC and also likes to run but there are some questions following the loss of Ryan Rollins. The frontcourt is solid but the Rockets will be tested much more than they were against Valparaiso in their opener. 10* (634) UAB Blazers |
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11-11-22 | Detroit +9 v. Boston College | Top | 66-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TITANS as part of our CBB Friday Early Three Pack. College hoops writeups limited due to time constraints. Both Detroit and Boston College are coming off wins in their season openers although the Titans are coming off the must easier route. They defeated Rochester College by 28 points and while they take a step up in competition, they are the better team here getting points with one of the top scorers in the country. Antoine Davis, a fifth year senior, has averaged at least 23 points in each of his first four seasons and has averaged 25.8 ppg overall. Detroit is picked to finish No. 6 in the Horizon League which is not lofty but this is a team that will make noise. Boston College won its opener on a buzzer beater against Cornell and this is a very raw team and could be without two key pieces again on Friday as forward Quinten Post, 8.9 ppg and 5.4 rpg last season and guard Demarr Langford, Jr., 11.1 ppg and 4.7 rpg, are both questionable which made the rotations hard to figure out against Cornell and will likely be the case again. 10* (631) Detroit Titans |
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11-10-22 | Cal-Riverside +6.5 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 81-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the UC RIVERSIDE HIGHLANDERS for our CBB Thursday Enforcer. UC Riverside is coming off a loss against Colorado on Monday by 16 points but after a very slow start, the Highlanders outscored the Buffaloes by a bucket in the second half in a very tough environment. The home team had several advantages coming into that game and it showed as Colorado went to the free throw line 26 times compared to only 10 times for Riverside and the Highlanders could not buy a long range bucket as they went 4-21 from behind the arc and had only seven assists. They take a big step down in competition here and while the line is certainly much lower, it can be argued the wrong team is favored here. UC Riverside has never made the NCAA Tournament and this could be a team to watch out for coming out of the Big West Conference as it is picked in the top half and is the third ranked team in the country to make the Big Dance among teams that never have. Loyola-Marymount opened the season with a 50-point win over Life Pacific but that was no indication of how this Lions team is and they are not expected to be very good. They have been tabbed to finish ninth in the 10-team West Coast Conference following a 10-18 season including a 3-12 conference record. This is not a very deep team with no true player that can take a game over as the Lions top returners are seniors Dameane Douglas (10.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg in 13 games) and Keli Leaupepe (9.2 ppg, 4.8 rpg) and will be relying on a lot of transfers and while that did not affect the play on the court against the Warriors, that glorified exhibition win is driving this line with the public backing Loyola-Marymount which has steamed the number even more and again, this line does not seem right. 10* (621) UC Riverside Highlanders |
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11-10-22 | Falcons v. Panthers +3 | Top | 15-25 | Win | 100 | 60 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA PANTHERS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. Carolina is back home following a pair of road losses where it is now 0-4 on the season but a much more respectable 2-3 at home. The Panthers were blown out in Cincinnati this past Sunday, the same way Atlanta was three weeks ago, and the home slate includes an impressive win over Tampa Bay and while their season has not been anything close to consistent, they find themselves only two games out of first place in the NFC South. They are considered the worst of the four teams by a big margin but as we have seen, anything can happen in this league especially what we have seen this season and Carolina is tied with Tampa Bay with a 2-1 record within the conference with that game at hand. The quarterback play has been the problem on offense and P.J. Walker will get another shot after getting benched last week but he was solid in his last home game against the Buccaneers and was decent after that on the road at Atlanta. Carolina had that game won on two separate occasions but the kicking game blew it so there is revenge in play Thursday night. Carolina is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games after allowing 40 points or more last game. It has been a strange season for Atlanta as it has overachieved with its 4-5 record which puts it tied for first place with Tampa Bay in the division but the numbers show it should not be 4-5. The Falcons outgained New Orleans in their first game of the season but they have been outgained in all eight games since then and this is a great historical spot of playing against favorites that have been outgained at a percentage like that. The running game has kept the Falcons afloat but that can only go so far as in the eight games they have outrushed their opponent, they are 3-5. The one game that Atlanta was outrushed happened to be the game against the Panthers so their strength was taken away and now they take that matchup on the road where they are just 1-3. The Falcons are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. 10* (114) Carolina Panthers |
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11-10-22 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Lafayette -3 | Top | 17-36 | Win | 100 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the UL-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS for our CFB Thursday Enforcer. This is the classic matchup of strength against strength and weakness against weakness. Louisiana is coming off a brutal loss and an even more brutal bad beat for bettors as the Cajuns had a 17-0 lead heading into the final play of the third quarter but allowed Troy to tie it up with 2:41 left and then instead of kicking a game-winning field goal with 10 seconds left, the Trojans scored on a 22-yard touchdown run for the win and cover. It was the second straight loss for Louisiana as it fell to 4-5 so it needs to win two of its final three games to become bowl eligible and this is a must win as it has Florida St. on deck on the road. The final two games are on the road so this is the final home game of the season so Senior Night takes place in Lafayette. The strength of the Cajuns is their defense as they are ranked No. 33 overall and No. 36 in points allowed and on the season, they have given up 23 points or less in seven of their nine games. The offense has been the letdown as they are just No. 94 overall and No. 85 in scoring but face a very bad defense. Louisiana is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games off a home loss against a conference opponent. Georgia Southern is also coming off a loss as it fell at home against South Alabama and it dropped to 2-3 in the Sun Belt Conference East Division which eliminated it from a chance at the championship game. The Eagles have now been outgained in six straight games and while the offense has done its job, the defense has not. They are ranked No. 18 in total offense but faces the strength of their opponent while the defense is No. 129 overall so that is where the Cajuns will have success. Georgia Southern needs just one more win to become bowl eligible and will likely get one of those over its last two games which take place at home. Here, we play against teams averaging 400 or more total ypg on offense, after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in four consecutive games. This situation is 67-32 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (118) UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns |
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11-10-22 | Golden Knights v. Sabres +155 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the BUFFALO SABRES for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. We played against Vegas on Tuesday and it was another fast start for the Golden Knights which eventually prevailed into an overtime victory. Vegas is on an absolute role as it has won eight straight games and this is the fifth game of a seven-game roadtrip that has opened 4-0 with a pair of overtime wins and another one goal victory. The Golden Knights have done it on both sides as they are ranked in the top ten in scoring and shots per game on each end which is obviously a great combo to have and they can thank this to great starts as they are outscoring opponents by close to one goal per game in the first period compared to a +.28 goal per game in the second and third periods combined. Buffalo opened the season red hot by winning seven of its first ten games but has lost three straight and this is the start of a tough three-game stretch at home. Losses at Carolina and Tampa Bay were certainly not bad but the Sabres returned home and put up a stinker against Arizona with a 4-1 loss as a -230 favorite. The power plays remains solid for Buffalo as after going 0-4 against Seattle, the Sabres are 9-28 in the man advantage over their last seven games and have scored at least one power play goal in each. This is a strong offense that is ranked No. 2 in the NHL and can give the Vegas defense some problems. The Sabres are 9-1 in their last 10 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. In the four years of the Golden Knights existence, the home team has won seven of the eight meetings with Buffalo taking the last three by two goals each. Here, we play on home underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line in non-conference games, off a home loss by three goals or more. This situation is 23-9 (71.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (38) Buffalo Sabres |
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11-09-22 | Davidson -3 v. Wright State | Top | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the DAVIDSON WILDCATS for our CBB Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. This will be the second game for Davidson after defeating Guilford College by 23 points on Monday which was not a spectacular win considering the Quakers are from Division III but for a team that lost some talent from last season, that first game is always big no matter the opponent. There is a new coach in place as longtime leader Bob McKillop retired and his son takes over who has been the lead assistant for a while and in the program for 14 years so there is no drop off. The Wildcats lost three starters but two great ones are back in guard Foster Loyer who is a preseason A-10 First Team selection and is coming off a 30-pojnt game in the opener and forward Sam Mennenga is a force down low. There is depth and transfer help and they are in much better shape than their Wednesday counterpart. Wright St. head coach Scott Nagy is in his 28th season as the head coach and he is entering a season of unknowns and he has rightly admitted it. "We're starting Wednesday against a good team. I don't know what that'll look like. There's still a lot of stuff for us to work on." Going into the season opener, the starting five is not set as the frontcourt is a big shortcoming while depth is an issue as the Raiders took a hit with the transfers of stars Tanner Holden and Grant Basile. They have been pegged to finish fourth in the Horizon League which is not saying much and they are underdogs here for a reason as there is potential but it will be a rough start especially with the early nonconference schedule that is a difficult one. Chemistry is always tough early in the season in college hoops with all of the turnover and that will be very evident here, especially playing against a team with a game under their belt. 10* (763) Davidson Wildcats |
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11-09-22 | Mavs -6 v. Magic | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. Dallas is coming off a 4-1 homestand which is solid but it did not play particularly well as three of the wins were by three points or less and the Mavericks ended up 0-4-1 ATS and that is a streak we like to go against as they are due for a maximum effort especially against one of the worst teams in the league. Their schedule has been home heavy where they have played six of nine games and they come into Wednesday with a 1-2 road record with the two losses coming at New Orleans and Phoenix by a bucket apiece. While they have mostly won close games, the three losses could have gone eight way with two of those by two points and the other in overtime. Dallas is 20-5 ATS in its last 25 games after scoring 100 points or less. Orlando is off to a miserable start as it is 2-9 and while that includes a 0-6 record on the road, the Magic are just 2-3 at home and while that includes a win over Golden St., the Warriors have been playing awful everywhere. This team should improve somewhat as the season goes on once they start getting healthy as they are a banged up. There is no veteran leadership on this team the Magic still have some key players out on Wednesday with Moritz Wagner, Markelle Fultz and Gary Harris unavailable along with Jonathan Isaac who is still out after missing all of last season and now No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero has been added to the injury list after averaging 23.5 ppg and 8.3 rpg through the first 11 games but he is questionable with an ankle injury. Orlando is 9-20 ATS in its last 29 home games after having lost four or five of their last six games. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after a game where they failed to cover the spread going up against an opponent after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. This situation is 40-15 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (535) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-08-22 | Ohio v. Miami-OH +2 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI REDHAWKS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Ohio defeated Buffalo last week, which came into the game first place in the MAC East Division, but the Bobcats victory put them into a tie with the Bulls and Falcons at 4-1 and they hold one of the tiebreakers and have a meeting with Bowling Green in their season finale. Ohio has won four straight games and has covered five straight but four of those outright wins were at home and it enters Tuesday just 1-3 on the road and while two came against power five teams, the other was against 3-6 Kent St. where it was outgained by 286 total yards and allowed a whopping 736 yards to the Golden Flashes. The defense has shown promise of late but the Bobcats are still ranked No. 127 in total defense and No. 115 in scoring defense and that should give Miami life here. The Bobcats are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. While Miami is likely out of the chase in the MAC East, it kept its season alive with a win over Akron last Saturday which gives it a little extra time for this home matchup. The RedHawks improved to 4-5 overall so they avoided having to win out over their last three games to become bowl eligible even though they have two winnable games to close out the season. Six of their nine games have been away from home and they have gone 2-4 in those games but two of those losses were against Kentucky and Cincinnati and the other two were against first place Buffalo and Bowling Green by four points apiece so this team has played a lot better than its record shows. The defense is good enough to win games as they are No. 36 overall and No. 31 in points allowed and will be a factor here. The RedHawks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 10* (104) Miami RedHawks |
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11-08-22 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS for our NHL Revenge Game of the Month. Vegas is on an absolute role as it has won seven straight games which started with a home win over Toronto back on October 24 so we are a solid home revenge spot for the Maple Leafs. The Golden Knights have done it on both sides as they are ranked in the top ten in scoring and shots per game on each end which is obviously a great combo to have and they can thank this to great starts as they are outscoring opponents by close to one goal per game in the first period compared to a +.39 goal per game in the second and third periods combined so Toronto needs to slow them down early and they will be fine. Of their 13 games, only two have come against the top ten ranked teams in the power rankings. That loss to Vegas last month was the start of a four-game losing streak for the Maple Leafs so that adds to the revenge factor here. Following that skid, the Maple Leafs have won three straight games including an impressive win over Carolina on the road Saturday 3-1 and they are now 3-1 against teams ranked in the top ten with that lone loss coming against the Golden Knights. They are 5-1-0-0 at home as the defense has led the way by allowing only 2.17 gpg in those six games while outshooting opponents by over 11 shots per game. the Maple Leafs are 6-0 in their last six games when their opponent scores five goals or more in their previous game. Here, we play on home favorites against the money line after a three or more consecutive wins going up against an opponent after five or more consecutive wins. This situation is 67-23 (74.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (12) Toronto Maple Leafs |
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11-08-22 | Mercer -1.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the MERCER BEARS for our CBB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. East Carolina checks in as a home underdog for its season opener so it will likely be a popular play here based on playing in a better conference with what should be better players but this is depleted. The Pirates lost their top seven players that returned last season to either graduation or transfers so this is going to be a complete rebuild for new head coach Mike Schwartz who has a good pedigree and is coming off six years as an assistant at Tennessee so he has solid experience from a top level program but it is not going to happen overnight. He has a pair of transfers from Tennessee and Iowa St. that are expected to contribute right away but this is all about chemistry early on in the season which there will be a lack of. They return center Ludgy Debaut, guards Javon Small and RJ Felton, and forward Brandon Johnson which combined for 14.2 ppg with Felton leading the way with 5.1 ppg. Not ideal. Mercer presents a fairly significant challenge right out of the gate as it is coming off a 16-17 season including an 8-10 record in the SoCon. Head coach Greg Gary has compiled a 51-43 record during his tenure with the Bears and they bring back a good amount of experience which helps on the offensive end and defensively, they will be strong again and will utilize pressure against a team lacking in experience everywhere. The Bears were picked No. 6 in the preseason SoCon poll and actually received one first place vote so are a top half team in the conference that can start the season off with a solid win against a team from a better conference even though one of the worst as the Pirates were tabbed to finish No. 11 in the 11-team ACC. 10* (757) Mercer Bears |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE RAVENS for our NFL Monday Star Attraction. Baltimore has won two straight games following a win at Tampa Bay last Thursday so they have had some extra rest heading into their second straight road game. The Ravens have a good advantage against this Saints defense with Lamar Jackson being a running quarterback as they have struggled against mobile quarterbacks and Jackson can go off here while the overall running game has been important throughout the years as Baltimore is 37-8 with Jackson under center and it runs the ball 30 or more times. After getting outgained in its first four games, Baltimore has won the yardage battle in three of its last four games and the road has been no issue as they are 3-1 away from home with one bad fourth quarter against the Giants preventing a 4-0 road record. New Orleans is coming off a 24-0 win over Las Vegas last week which was its best overall effort of the season and coming off that game does not bode well next time out as NFL teams playing at home after coming off a home shutout are 1-4 straight up and ATS over the last five occurrences. The offense has been surprisingly good as New Orleans is ranked No. 3 overall and No. 9 in scoring and it has averaged 29.6 ppg in its last five games, all with Andy Dalton under center which makes it more surprising but the Baltimore defense got an upgrade with the addition of linebacker Roquan Smith. The Saints used to possess one of the best home fields in the league but they are just 3-6 straight up and against the number over their last nine home games. Here, we play against home teams averaging 385 or more total ypg, after gaining 400 or more total ypg over their last three games. this situation is 80-42 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (473) Baltimore Ravens |
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11-07-22 | Oilers -139 v. Capitals | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. Edmonton closed its three-game homestand with a pair of losses against New Jersey and Dallas to fall to 7-5-0-0 which puts the Oilers into fourth place in the Pacific Division and sixth place overall in the Western Conference. The offense remains potent as Edmonton is No. 4 in scoring and No. 10 in shots per game and one of the biggest advantages has come from special teams. The Oilers are ranked No. 2 on the power play at 31.9 percent as their 15 power play goals lead the NHL. The defense has not followed suit as Edmonton is near the bottom in scoring allowed, shots given up and the penalty kill but face a poor offense tonight to get that right. The Oilers are 35-16 in their last 51 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game. Washington has dropped four straight games including the last two as a favorite and the Capitals are now 5-6-1-1 on the season. The Capitals 12 points puts them at No. 6 in the Metropolitan Division and has then well out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference and while the season is still very young, there have been some consistently bad traits. Their defense has been okay enough to keep some of their games within reach to win but the offense has struggled as they are averaging only 2.7 gpg on 28.5 shots per game, No. 28 and No. 29 in the league respectively. They have scored two goals or less in five of their last six games. The Capitals are 1-7 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on road favorites against the money line after two or more consecutive losses going up against an opponent after four or more consecutive losses. This situation is 106-48 (68.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (69) Edmonton Oilers |
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11-07-22 | Pelicans -5 v. Pacers | Top | 122-129 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW ORLEANS PELICANS for our NBA Monday Enforcer. New Orleans fell to 5-4 on the season following a loss in Atlanta on Saturday in overtime. In fact, three of its four losses have come in overtime by a combined seven points and the Pelicans have followed up their three previous losses with wins next time out and this is another get well game before a trip to Chicago for their next game. The offense remains potent as they are No. 2 in scoring and No. 4 in shooting percentage and they have been strong down low, being ranked No. 2 in points in the paint. New Orleans should see little resistance from the Indiana defense. The Pelicans are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The Pacers are coming off an upset win over Miami at home on Friday to make it three wins over their last four games, covering all four of those after a 1-4 straight up and ATS start. Indiana has won two straight games at home with the other victory coming against hapless Detroit and this is a tough spot to keep it going. The aforementioned defense is ranked No. 27 in points allowed and No. 21 in shooting percentage allowed and overall, the Pacers are No. 24 in defensive efficiency. Indiana has been better on offense but not enough to compensate as it is No. 9 in scoring thanks to pace but just No. 24 in shooting. Indiana is 8-18 ATS in its last 26 games after scoring 105 points or less. Here, we play against home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a close home win by three points or less, in November games. this situation is 32-5 ATS (86.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (507) New Orleans Pelicans |
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11-07-22 | Quinnipiac +9 v. Rhode Island | Top | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the QUINNIPIAC BOBCATS for our CBB Opening Night Enforcer. The Rams open the season in rebuilding mode as they have a new head coach in Archie Miller who replaces Jamion Christian after he was fired following finishes of No. 10 and No. 11 in the Atlantic Ten Conference the last two seasons and the cupboard is pretty bare. The Rams have only five players returning on the roster with just a combined 37 starts last season between Abdou Samb, Sebastian Thomas, Jalen Carey, Ishmael Leggett and Malik Martin with Leggett accounting for 30 of those so there is very little experience to work with. Rhode Island was pegged No. 9 in the preseason conference poll so clearly there are not many expectations heading into the new season. Quinnipiac is coming off a 12-16 season including a 7-13 record in the MAAC during the regular season but made a solid run in the conference tournament and things are looking up this year thanks to a combination of experienced veterans and newcomers to the program. The frontcourt does have some question marks but that is usually not a big issue early in the season, especially in this matchup, a they have a clear advantage up top. With the frontcourt consisting of mostly transfers and newcomers, the backcourt is the opposite as the Bobcats return six guards from last season, all of which have the ability to contribute. Five of the six returning guards averaged at least eight points per game last season and are led by senior Matt Balanc who was named to the Preseason All-MAAC First Team. While this line will seem low to many, it is low for a reason and has actually gone up based mostly on name and not rosters. 10* (635) Quinnipiac Bobcats |
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11-06-22 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. We played against Utah on Friday and while looking good for a while, the Jazz were up by just two points late in the third quarter but outscored the Lakers 33-21 the rest of the way to win their third game over their last four. Utah is currently in third place in the Western Conference with its 7-3 record and it is the biggest surprise team in the Western Conference in the early going after what seemed to be a rebuilding or tanking year but that is definitely still in the cards. They play at a fast pace as they are No. 3 in scoring but only No. 17 in shooting and that is coming off a plus 50 percent shooting performance against the Lakers where they made a season-high 52 field goals. Utah is 6-20 ATS in its last 26 games after playing two consecutive road games. After a rough stretch of four straight losses, the Clippers have rebounded with three straight wins to get back over .500 at 5-4 and have some good momentum with a favorable line. The Clippers play at a slower pace that Utah as they are ranked near the bottom in scoring but make up for it with a solid shooting effort by hitting 46.8 percent from the floor. The absence of Kawhi Leonard is obviously a big loss but have made up for it with great balance down low and Paul George has picked is up after a slow start by averaging 31.7 ppg and 6.3 apg over his last three games. The Clippers are 24-10 ATS in their last 34 games after failing to cover five or six of their last seven games against the spread. Here, we play against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games. This situation is 33-13 ATS (71.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (574) Los Angeles Clippers |
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11-06-22 | Chargers -3 v. Falcons | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. The Falcons blew the cover last week against Carolina as they allowed a 62-yard touchdown pass with 12 seconds remaining yet were bailed out by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty and kicking failures from the Panthers. Atlanta sits at 4-4 at leads the NFC South by a game over the Panthers and Buccaneers but they are a fraud as it is the worst .500 or better team in the league as after outgaining the Saints in its season opener, the Falcons have been outgained in their last seven games and by an average of 113 ypg. The offense has been held together by a strong running game and should have some success here but the passing game is non-existent. Defensively, the Falcons are in a tough spot here as they are ranked second to last in DVOA. Atlanta is 8-20 ATS in its last 20 games after a divisional win by three points or less. This is a great spot for the Chargers as they are coming off their bye week which gives quarterback Justin Herbert extra time to rest his ribs and the time off also gave receiver Keenan Allen more time to rest as he will return after leaving the last game with a hamstring injury. He can have a field day against the Falcons defense that is ranked No. 31 in total defense and No. 32 in passing defense and the secondary is banged up with cornerback Casey Hayword out with two other starters, cornerback A.J. Terrell and safely Jaylinn Hawkins highly questionable with a concussion and hamstring injuries respectively. The Falcons have the worst pressure rate in the NFL, so Herbert will have all the time he needs and we saw what Joe Burrow did to them two weeks ago. The Chargers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. Here, we play against home teams averaging 7.3 or more ypa and after gaining 8.0 or more ypa last game going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 ypa. This situation is 34-9 ATS (79.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (461) Los Angeles Chargers |
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11-06-22 | Packers v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 9-15 | Win | 100 | 51 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. We were on the Lions last week and they blew a few double-digit leads and ended up not covering by a half-point but we are back on them here in what is a stupid line. Detroit was getting 3.5 points against the Dolphins and now it is getting an identical number against a listless Packers team. While the overall schedule for the Lions has not been the toughest, every team they have played is .500 or better on the season and four of their six losses have been by four points or less. The defense has been one of the worst in the league but facing this offense neutralizes that and their own offense should thrive, especially with the running game. Jared Goff has had success against blitz-heavy teams which is what the Packers do and Amon St. Brown is back to normal and coming off a solid game. The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Packers have lost four straight games and while they may have looked decent against the Bills last week, that is more of Buffalo playing vanilla in the second half after building a big lead. The other three losses came against the Commanders, Jets and Giants and while all three are .500 or better, all three are overrated. Green Bay is ranked No. 24 in the league in EPA over the last six weeks as Aaron Rodgers has looked pedestrian all season with his lack of weapons and the fact they did nothing at the trade deadline is telling. Defensively, the Packers are ranked No. 29 against the rush and is at a big disadvantage in this matchup with a healthy D'Andre Swift, who is on the injured list again but is just fine. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after failing to cover the spread in three out of their last four games, in November games. this situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (460) Detroit Lions |
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11-06-22 | Raiders -1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the LAS VEGAS RAIDERS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. The Raiders were embarrassed last week as they were shutout at New Orleans 24-0, managing only 183 yards of total offense, and teams coming off shutout losses tend to bounce back if they are good and this is still a good team. NFL teams coming off a shutout loss and facing teams off consecutive losses are 15-3 ATS over the last 29 years. Las Vegas was hit hard last week with an injury bug that decimated the roster with 15 players affected but that is gone and at 2-5, it is easily the best two-win or less team in the NFL. The other four losses have come by one possession and the Raiders were outgained by an average of only 19.8 ypg. The Raiders are making their second straight trip out east but that is not a disadvantage here with Jacksonville coming off their annual game in London. The offense is ready for a bounce back. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Jacksonville has lost five straight games and while all have been by just one possession, the last four have been against the Broncos, Giants, Colts and Texans, all of which are ranked in the bottom half of the league in the latest power rankings. They face an equally bad team record-wise but not in talent and while the offensive numbers have been above average, the quarterback play is still not where it should be. Trevor Lawrence showed some promise early in the season with two great games against the Chargers and Colts but has regressed since then and his 84.8 passer rating is No. 22 in the NFL. Defensively, the Jaguars are No. 18 overall which is not horrible but there is little pass rush and they have been one of the worst teams on third down over the last month. Jacksonville is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games against teams allowing 350 or more ypg. Here, we play on road favorites with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 off an upset loss as a favorite, playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 40-12 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1983. 10* (465) Las Vegas Raiders |
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11-05-22 | Phillies +135 v. Astros | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Game of the Month. Houston was able to regain home field advantage by taking the two final games in Philadelphia and while it has what seems to be a big edge needing to take just one of two games at home but the Astros know well that is not so easy after losing the final two games of the 2019 World Series at home against Washington. The Astros came into the World Series on a nine-game winning streak including six straight home wins but showed their vulnerability in Game One and have another challenge against the Phillies bats that are ready to wake up even though the pitching for Houston looks unbeatable in this matchup. Framber Valdez had a fantastic season and has been great in the postseason but he does possess opposite home/road splits and while not expecting a blowup, it only takes a few with Houston going up against the Phillies ace. While the Phillies had the momentum after their Game Three 7-0 win where they smacked five home runs, it showed momentum does not mean a whole lot in the fall classic as they succumbed to a Game Four no-hitter and a heart-breaking loss in Game Five. Philadelphia is 5-3 on the road in the postseason so there is no fear of playing on the road. Zack Wheeler looks to put forth a better effort in Game Six after he allowed five runs, four earned, on six hits in just five innings in Game Two. He blamed it on arm fatigue but says he is better and the better news is that he tossed only 69 pitches and in his last four starts since mid-September after coming off a game throwing than fewer 80 pitches, he posted a 0.37 ERA over 24.1 innings so that last start could actually be a blessing. Here, we play on underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 batting .200 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games. this situation is 61-49 (55.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) Philadelphia Phillies |
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11-05-22 | James Madison +7.5 v. Louisville | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the JAMES MADISON DUKES for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Louisville rolled over Wake Forest last week 48-21 but it was not because it dominated the Demon Deacons but because it benefitted from eight turnovers gained that included two interceptions returned for touchdowns. The Cardinals improved to 5-3 with the victory as they have won three straight games but they have been fairly average on both sides of the ball, ranked No. 55 in total offense and No. 50 in total defense. This is not a good spot coming off three straight conference wins with a game at Clemson on deck. The Cardinals are 4-14-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points. James Madison opened the season 5-0 in its first season at the FBS level and got into the AP poll at No. 25 but it has dropped its last two games as a double-digit favorite despite winning the combined overall yardage in those games. The Dukes are ranked in the top 20 in both total offense and total defense so they have edges on both sides and while the schedule has come into play, this team is loaded and the transition into the upper tier of college football has not affected them at all after being a dominant program at the FCS level. The Dukes are 5-1 ATS in their last six games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Here, we play on road teams averaging 6.1 or more yards per play, after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play in their previous game. This situation is 30-5 ATS (85.7 percent) since 1992. 10* (337) James Madison Dukes |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee +8.5 v. Georgia | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS as part of our CFB Saturday Afternoon Three Pack. This is the marquee game of the week as Tennessee was expected to be good but it has proven to be one of the top teams in the nation that included a win against Alabama. There have been a couple other close calls along the way but it is impossible to ignore the fact the Volunteers possess the top ranked offense in the country, both overall and in scoring. This is obviously going to be a tough road environment but they got a good scheduling time slot and while they have played only two road games, one of those was a 40-13 win at LSU, a team that has showed how good it is of late. The Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Georgia is rolling again after a couple of hiccups a month ago against Kent St. and Missouri and it has still been the most dominant team in the country, outgaining opponents by close to 270 ypg but has played no one since its opener against Oregon. The two best opponents since then have been Florida and Auburn, the former sitting at 4-4 and the latter coming off just firing their coach. The Bulldogs are the most complete team in the country but now face their toughest opponent by far. Georgia is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games against teams averaging 275 or more passing ypg. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 525 or more total ypg over their last three games going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 30-7 ATS (81.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (399) Tennessee Volunteers |
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11-05-22 | Oklahoma State +1 v. Kansas | Top | 16-37 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA ST. COWBOYS as part of our CFB Saturday Afternoon Three Pack. Oklahoma St. started off 5-0 and the preseason prediction of a Big XII Championship were in full focus but an overtime loss at TCU after blowing a big lead cut into that but last week was the real dagger as the Cowboys lost at Kansas St. 48-0, the first time they have been shutout in close to 13 years. They came in ranked No. 3 in scoring offense in the country but were held to less half of their season average on offense as they managed only 217 total yards. This is a good bounce back spot with a good number and Oklahoma St. is 21-9 ATS in its last 30 games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half in two straight games. The magical season for Kansas has abruptly come to an end as it opened 5-0 and made it into the AP Poll for the first time since 2009 but has since lost three straight games. The Jayhawks have been outgained in five of their seven games against FBS opponents and the offense has decreased its production over the last three games as the absence of quarterback Jalon Daniels has hindered the offense and he is out at least two more weeks. One thing that has not changed is the defense that is ranked No. 113 overall and No. 102 in scoring and faces a fired up offense here. Kansas is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games after two or more consecutive straight up losses. Here, we play on road teams averaging 425 or more total ypg, after gaining 3.75 or less yards per play in their previous game. This situation is 26-6 ATS (81.2 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (341) Oklahoma St. Cowboys |
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11-05-22 | UTSA v. UAB +1 | Top | 44-38 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the UAB BLAZERS for our C-USA Game of the Year. UAB is 4-4 on the season and has been all over the place but a return home is just what it needs. The home team is 8-0 in its eight games and the four road losses they have sustained have all been by one possession and the Blazers won the yardage battle in half of those games. At home, all four victories have been by at least two touchdowns and while this is the toughest opponent of the bunch, the line is indicative of that as is the fact UAB has failed to cover its last three games. The Blazers have a big edge on offense as they are No. 33 overall including No. 5 in rushing in the country. UAB is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games coming off a loss against a conference rival and 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games off an upset loss as a favorite. UTSA has won five straight games but covered only one of those against Middle Tennessee St. and while it brings in a very solid offense, it goes up against a Blazers defense that is once again stout. The other side here is the problem as the Roadrunners are ranked No. 105 in total defense and No. 92 in scoring defense which gives the Blazers offense that advantage. UTSA has dominated in its last two road games but those were against FIU and Middle Tennessee St. The Roadrunners are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. This situation is 111-53 ATS (67.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (410) UAB Blazers |
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11-05-22 | Baylor +3.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the BAYLOR BEARS as part of our CFB Saturday Afternoon Three Pack. Oklahoma looked as though it may not have missed head coach Lincoln Riley jumping ship to USC as it opened 3-0 but that was against weak opposition and the Sooners then lost three straight games when they faced teams with a pulse. They have bounced back with a pair of wins but those were against Kansas which was missing its starting quarterback, and Iowa St. that has one of the worst offenses in the conference. Now they again face a quality opponent with a defense that is one of the worst in recent years as the Sooners are No. 114 overall. The Sooners are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Baylor is also 5-3 on the season but has played much better than that as after getting outgained by BYU in their second game of the season, the Bears have won the yardage battle in six straight games including a pair of losses against Oklahoma St. and West Virginia with turnovers being the difference. they have the offense that can take advantage of this porous defense as they are ranked No. 27 overall and No. 15 in scoring while their defense is also in the top 30 overall and can shut down the Sooners rushing game. The Bears are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against teams with a winning home record. Here, we play against home teams after being beaten by the spread by 49 or more points in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13. This situation is 48-18 ATS (72.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (359) Baylor Bears |
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11-05-22 | Air Force v. Army +7.5 | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 45 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS for our CFB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. After a 1-4 start, Army has won two straight games to move to 3-4 which is a very disappointing start after going 9-4 last season. Over the last three years, Army has improved in the final rankings, finishing No. 89 in 2019, No. 66 in 2020 and No. 43 in 2021 and the 2022 version was supposed to be even better but the defense has fallen short. After finishing No. 15 in total defense last season, the Black Knights are No. 92 overall and No. 93 in scoring defense but facing a similar attack should produce better results. Army is 19-10 ATS in its last 29 games away from home after playing a game at home. Air Force is coming off a 19-14 home loss against Boise St. which was its third loss this season as a favorite. The Falcons have failed to cover three of their last four games which includes a 13-10 win over Navy which is a very similar matchup as the one they have here with the Midshipmen similar to Army in their schemes and the knowledge known how to defend. The possess the No. 1 rushing offense in the country and facing the No. 2 rushing offense this week so while they also have the knowledge that Army has, the fact they are laying over a touchdown is too much. The Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. Here, we play on neutral field underdogs averaging 225 or more rushing ypg, after gaining 225 or more rushing yards in four straight games. This situation is 25-3 ATS (89.3 percent) since 1992. 10* (322) Army Black Knights |
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11-04-22 | Jazz v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 130-116 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. We played against Utah in its last game at Dallas and while it lost outright, it stayed within the number to make it three straight covers. The Jazz are 6-3 which is still a solid start for a team expecting to rebuild as they are 4-0 at home but just 2-3 on the road and those two wins came in overtime albeit against good teams in Minnesota and New Orleans so those could have gone either way as the home teams came up small in the extra time. The offense has been fairly average however as the Jazz are No. 16 in offensive efficiency and No. 22 in floor percentage while the one big issue has been in transition as Utah is No. 25 in fast break efficiency. Utah is 5-17 ATS in its last 22 games coming off a road loss. The Lakers have found something as they have won two straight games after opening the season 0-5 and while moving Russell Westbrook to coming off the bench might not seem like a big deal, it really has been as the rotations have been a lot cleaner and efficient and he gives them a better scoring option in those spots. The two victories have been impressive over solid teams in New Orleans and Denver and this is the third game of an important four-game homestand where they can make up some big ground. The offensive efficiency is still dead last in the league but that was because of the awful start and they have improved over the last three games and they have been excellent in transition, raking No. 2 in fast break points. Here, we play on home teams where the line is +3 to -3 after beating the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games in the first half of the season. This situation is 61-28 ATS (68.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (550) Los Angeles Lakers |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State v. Washington -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON HUSKIES for our CFB Friday Supreme Annihilator. Oregon St. is ranked for the first time since 2013 as it comes in at No. 23 in the AP Poll following three straight wins but those have come against teams that are a combined 3-13 in the Pac 12. The Beavers two losses came against two of the best teams in the conference in USC and Utah, the latter coming on the road by 26 points and their two road wins were against Fresno St. and Stanford by a combined four points. They are ranked in the top 50 in six of the eight major statistical categories on both sides but are not ranked higher than No. 30 in any of those so while consistent, they do nothing real outstanding and while the offense has an edge on the Washington defense, is will have a big disadvantage going up against the Huskies offense. Oregon St. is 6-17 ATS in its last 23 road games after allowing nine points or less last game. Washington was ranked as high as No. 15 in the country early in the season but a loss at UCLA at the end of September knocked it out and that was followed a bad loss at Arizona St. but the Huskies have rebounded with a pair of wins albeit against some poor opposition. They have some momentum back and return home where they are 5-0 on the season and have played here only once since late September so they will be fired up to be back and facing a ranked team. Washington is 0-4 ATS in its last four games so we are catching some value because of that and on the season, it has covered four of its five home games. the defense has been a disappointment for this normally stout unit but have made up for it with an offense that is No. 7 overall and No. 10 in scoring as quarterback Michael Penix, Jr. has been outstanding, throwing for 2,934 yards with 22 touchdowns and four interceptions. Here, we play on home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win against a conference rival going up against an opponent off three straight wins against conference rivals. This situation is 87-42 ATS (67.4 percent) since 1992. 10* (320) Washington Huskies |
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11-04-22 | Raptors v. Mavs -4 | Top | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. Toronto has been on a roll the last two games, defeating Atlanta and San Antonio by 30 and 43 points respectively, and the Raptors have won four of their last five games after a 1-2 start. They have won two in a row on the road but are 2-2 after losing at Brooklyn and Miami albeit by just a total of seven points. Those last two victories provide an ideal go against spot as it provides line value because the action will certainly favor their side. Despite a 5-3 record, they are ranked No. 15 in both shooting offense and shooting defense and while great in transition, they are just No. 21 in points in the paint. The Raptors are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. Dallas is coming off a win but non-cover against Utah last time out to make it two straight to move over .500 for the first time this season. The Mavericks are 4-3 but two of those losses came by a bucket at Phoenix and at New Orleans with the other defeat coming in overtime against Oklahoma City to they could very well be closer to undefeated than .500 if some of those breaks went their way. Two of their four wins came at home by nine and 41 points. Dallas is ranked No. 9 in scoring offense and has been very efficient as it is No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in floor percentage. Dallas is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons. Gere, we play on home teams after allowing 105 points or less two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring 130 points or more. This situation is 29-8 ATS (78.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (542) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-04-22 | Cavs v. Pistons +6.5 | Top | 112-88 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT PISTONS as part of our NBA Friday Triple Play. Cleveland has been the surprise of the Eastern Conference as it is off to a 6-1 start which is still not good enough for first place because Milwaukee is 7-0 but the Cavaliers have been red hot. They have won their last six games, covering all of those but they have been pretty fortunate with three of those victories coming in overtime and four of the last five wins have come at home. They are banged up on the perimeter with point guard Darius Garland and shooting guard Donovan Mitchell dinged and are listed as questionable and while they should go, neither are 100 percent. The Cavaliers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Detroit is off to a rough start as expected as it is 2-7 but both wins came at home, including one against Golden St., where it is 2-2 and one of those losses was by just five points against Atlanta. The Pistons have lost their last two games but those came against those 7-0 Bucks on the road so no harm there and they bring in a 3-1 ATS record at home. This is clearly a young team in transition but it is all about spots and this one is set up perfectly where they are getting the same number as the one against the Warriors as the Cavaliers recent ATS stretch is helping inflate it. Detroit is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games against teams shooting 39 percent or better from long range. Here, we play against road favorites with a winning percentage of .750 or better after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games, playing a team with a winning percentage of .250 or worse. This situation is 28-7 ATS (80 percent) since 1996. 10* (534) Detroit Pistons |
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11-03-22 | Astros -150 v. Phillies | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Astros came through for us on Wednesday with a combined no-hitter and we are backing them again as they clearly have the momentum going into Game Five and they now know they are heading back home which can give then an extra jolt. We played against Justin Verlander in Game One as he started strong with three shutout innings but was lit up for five runs over the next two frames as his World Series woes continue but like we saw at one point with Clayton Kershaw and his postseason demons that were shook, we can see that here with Verlander who is just too good to put up another dud. With the series now tied, there is not nearly the same pressure if Houston was down 3-1 in the series. The numbers do not lie as in eight career World Series starts, Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA and the linesmakers are clearly on his side for a rebound but the number is still fine to play. The Phillies dropped their first postseason game at home in the 5-0 loss as the bats went from knocking out five home runs to not being able to register a hit. A bounce back will be expected but it is not that easy especially against the best pitcher in baseball to go along with the best bullpen in baseball. Those five home runs on Tuesday were all hit off Lance McCullers who was tipping his pitches from his leg angle so no advantage like that will do them in here. Noah Syndergaard was scratched from his start in Game Three after a rainout and he comes back in Game Five what will essentially become a bullpen game as he will not be stretched as he has gone only 5.1 innings in the postseason while tossing only 68 pitches. The Houston bats had only one scoring inning in Game Four but have a shot to get out early here following a solid 10-hit performance on Wednesday. 10* (965) Houston Astros |
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11-03-22 | Bruins v. Rangers -121 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -121 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Month. We lost with the Bruins on Tuesday as they rallied from a 5-2 deficit and defeated Pittsburgh 6-5 in overtime to improve to 9-1-0-0. Boston still leads the Eastern Conference by four points over the Rangers and Devils and its four-game roadtrip continues after a 2-0 start to move to 3-1-0-0 on the highway. They are the highest scoring team in the league with 4.4 gpg and that goes up to 5.0 gpg in those four road games despite only averaging 34.75 shots per game. They will be facing another tough defense on home ice although that did not pan out for Pittsburgh but this is a whole different test against one of the top goaltenders in the league. The Bruins are 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. The Rangers have won three straight games following a four-game losing streak and are now 6-3-1-1 on the season including a 3-1-1-1 record at home. The offense has not been scoring much as they are averaging only 2.9 gpg but it has not been because of lack of opportunities as they are averaging 36.5 shots per game which is No. 5 in the NHL so they have not caught the breaks and found the holes. This will eventually come around and it very well could be here as the Bruins are allowing 3.5 gpg on the road which is ninth most in the NHL. Defense has been the story for New York and it starts between the pipes. Reigning Vezina Trophy winning goalie Igor Shesterkin has been great as he is allowing just 2.22 gpg and has a .921 save percentage and that is the sixth highest save percentage for a goalie that has made at least 200 saves and fifth best percentage among goalies that have seen at least 227 shots. The Rangers are 11-1 in their last 12 home games off a win against a division rival. Here, we play on home favorites against the money line after three or more straight wins going up against an opponent after five or more straight wins. This situation is 67-22 (75.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (6) New York Rangers |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina +3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the COASTAL CAROLINA CHANTICLEERS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Coastal Carolina was coming off a tough stretch where it snuck out close wins over Georgia Southern and UL-Monroe as a double-digit favorite and then lost to Old Dominion by 28 points, also as a double-digit favorite. The Chanticleers bounced back with an impressive road win at Marshall last week as a slight underdog and they come back this week as a small home underdog which has out heads shaking and this has been their wheelhouse as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as home underdogs. Quarterback Grayson McCall has followed up his record-setting season by completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 2,061 yards with 19 touchdowns and only one interception and this has been done with less talent than last year. It is not just him however as it is a balanced attack as the running game is potent with C.J. Beasley and Reece White combining for 891 yards on 5.7 ypc. There will be some added motivation here as Coastal Carolina lost at Appalachian St. by three points last season which cost it a trip to the Sun Belt Championship. Appalachian St. is 5-3 on the season with tough losses against North Carolina and James Madison while also losing ugly to Texas St. The Mountaineers do have a big win at Texas A&M but it has become less impressive by the week with the Aggies struggles. The schedule has been in their favor as six of their eight games have been at home including five of their last six and travel on a short week for this one. The numbers favor Appalachian St. overall but the aforementioned schedule has had a lot to with that. Both teams are coming off solid defensive efforts and that has favored Coastal Carolina going forward based on the past as the Mountaineers are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game while the Chanticleers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Here, we play on home teams with a winning percentage of .800 or better off a double digit road win, playing a team with a winning record. This situation is 62-28 ATS (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (314) Coastal Carolina Chanticleers |
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11-02-22 | Grizzlies -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. Memphis is one of many teams in the NBA expected to make a run to the top but have struggled early. The Grizzlies are 4-3 which is not horrible but the last two losses were bad ones at the overachieving Jazz and are now 2-3 on the road and we see value here in what is a great bounce back spot. The offense is humming along as they are No. 4 in scoring as they are again a great team in transition, ranked No. 8 in the league in fast break points and No. 7 in fast break efficiency. Memphis also has a big edge down low as it is No. 2 in points in the paint with 56 ppg and while the defense has struggled, they catch a short-handed Blazers team. The Grizzlies are 39-13 ATS in their last 52 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Portland opened the season 4-0 before losing at home to Miami by 21 points yet rebounded after that with a 14-point win but that was against the 1-7 Rockets. The Blazers won that game without Damian Lillard who is out until later this month with a calf injury and that puts them in a tough spot playing against a solid team, especially one that is in need of a win after two favorite losses. Anfernee Simons now has to shoulder the load up top and he responded with a 30-point game against Houston but it is a big drop off after that. To their credit, the Blazers do own two solid win over Denver and Phoenix but those were at full strength and their 5-1 ATS record is giving us value here. The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Here, we play on road favorites coming off two or more consecutive upset losses as a favorite going up against an opponent off a home win. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1996. 10* (519) Memphis Grizzlies |
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11-02-22 | Jazz v. Mavs -5.5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS MAVERICKS for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The Jazz have been one of the early season surprises in the league as they are off to a 6-2 start which includes a pair of back-to-back wins over Memphis in their last two games but those were at home where they are 4-0 to start the season. Utah is 2-2 on the road but those two wins came in overtime albeit against good teams in Minnesota and New Orleans so those could have gone either way as the home teams came up small in the extra time. The offense has been fairly average however as the Jazz are No. 16 in offensive efficiency and No. 22 in floor percentage while the one big issue has been in transition as Utah is No. 26 in fast break efficiency. Utah is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after having won three of their last four games. The Mavericks are just 3-3 but two of those losses came by a bucket at Phoenix and at New Orleans with the other defeat coming in overtime against Oklahoma City to they could very well be closer to undefeated than .500 is some of those breaks went their way. Two of their three wins came at home by nine and 41 points. Dallas is ranked No. 6 in scoring offense and has been very efficient as it is No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in floor percentage. The Mavericks have a scheduling advantage having two days off following their last two games being at home so they have not travelled in a week while Utah has to hit the road following a home game on Monday and note its last tine in this situation, it won at home against the Rockets and then lost at Denver by 16 points two days later. The Mavericks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Here, we play against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog, in November games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (518) Dallas Mavericks |
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11-02-22 | Astros -101 v. Phillies | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We won with the Phillies on Tuesday as they used to long ball to pull away with an easy winner, hitting five home runs enroute to the 7-0 victory. That home run production will not be duplicated here and as much as we hate going against Philadelphia at home, this is a good spot for Houston for the offense to get back up after the shutout and coming off 10 runs in the first two games. The bats are top heavy in their lineup but for the most part have not produced as taking away the Game One performance from Kyle Tucker, the top four have gone 7-42 with just one home run and like the Phillies on Tuesday, they are ready to bust out. This is where we see the depth of the Astros rotation as the rainout benefitted Philadelphia to give the starters an extra day of rest so they are going back to their Game One starter while Houston is keeping the top two guys fresh as the No 4 guy could be a no. 1 for a lot of teams. Christian Javier was solid in his last start as he went 5.1 innings and allowed no runs at New York so the experience of succeeding in a tough road environment is a big advantage. He is not the best in home run allowance but not the worst either as over the last three seasons, he is ranked No. 20 in home run percentage among 76 pitchers that have thrown at least 300 innings. Aaron Nola struggled in Game One, allowing five runs in 4.1 innings that included a pair of home runs and he has allowed 11 runs on 13 hits in two postseason starts that covered nine innings which includes four home runs. Houston is 30-10 in 40 games against the money line after having lost two of their last three games this season and the Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. 10* (959) Houston Astros |
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11-02-22 | Western Michigan v. Bowling Green -4.5 | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOWLING GREEN FALCONS for our MAC Game of the Month. Bowling Green has won two straight games to move to 4-4 on the season as it has already matched its season win total from last year. Last season, Bowling Green was one of the most inexperienced teams in the country as it played numerous underclassmen so it can be excused but this season, the Falcons have the most experienced team in the nation as far as returning production and that is starting to show. The Falcons opened the season with a pair of losses, one at 7-1 UCLA and the other being a bad one against Eastern Kentucky of the FCS by two points in overtime. The other two losses since then were against Mississippi St. and a resurgent Buffalo team. They have outgained three of their last four opponents and while the defense has not been great, Bowling Green faces a very poor offense and it is 23-10 ATS in its last 33 games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in two straight games. Western Michigan kept its slim bowl hopes alive with an upset win at Miami to move to 3-5 following a pair of blowout losses. The only other victory over an FBS team came against Ball St. in the second game of the season with the third win coming against New Hampshire which happened to be the only game the Broncos won the yardage battle. Take that game out, and they are getting outgained by an average of 100.9 ypg against FBS opponents. The season comes as no surprise as they lost a lot from last season and their returning production on offense was one of the worst in the country. They are ranked No. 119 in total offense and No. 112 in scoring offense and they have scored 16 points or less in five of their eight games. Western Michigan is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games against teams allowing a completion percentage of 62 or worse. Here, we play against road underdogs off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of six or more points going up against an opponent off a double digit road win. This situation is 59-23 ATS (72 percent) since 1992. 10* (308) Bowling Green Falcons |
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11-01-22 | Ducks v. Sharks -120 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN JOSE SHARKS as part of our NHL Tuesday Hat Trick. Both San Jose and Anaheim have gotten off to poor starts and the home team has the edge here at a good price. The Sharks opened the season 0-3 but have gone 3-3 over their last six games by alternating wins and losses and coming off a one-goal loss to Tampa Bay last time out, the pattern continues. The San Jose defense will be the difference here as it has played well by allowing 3.1 gpg which is No. 17 and have limited opposing shots to 29.7 per game which is No. 9 in the league. Additionally, the Sharks are ranked No. 3 in the penalty kill with a .938 percentage and face the second worst offense in the NHL. San Jose is 14-6 against the money line in its last 20 home games after allowing three goals or more in three straight games. The Ducks picked up a 5-4 in overtime against Seattle in its season opener but then went on to lose seven straight games before an improbable 4-3 overtime win over Toronto on Sunday at home. Anaheim now hits the road where it is 0-5-0-1 and has averaged 1.5 gpg on away ice, getting outscored by 3.0 gpg. The Ducks have been outshot by over 10 shots per game both over and on the road which has led to an offense ranked No. 31 at 2.2 gpg and is only one spot higher in shots. In that first game against the Kraken, they scored two power play goals but since then, they have gone 0-23 on the power play while on the other side they have allowed 12 power play goals. Anaheim is 0-10 against the money line in its last 10 games coming off a home win by one goal. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage of .300 or less off a home loss by one goal, playing a team with a losing record in the first half of the season. This situation is 115-86 (57.2 percent) since 1996. 10* (64) San Jose Sharks |
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11-01-22 | Devils v. Canucks +114 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the VANCOUVER CANUCKS as part of our NHL Tuesday Hat Trick. Vancouver opened the season 0-5-2-0 but after the seven-game losing streak, the Canucks have won two straight games including an impressive 5-1 win over Pittsburgh on Friday in their last game. This is some positive momentum they can keep going here against one of the hottest teams in the NHL yet the line is telling us different as they were a +170 underdog against the Penguins last time out and are no where near that tonight despite the nearly opposite records. Special teams have played well after a slow start as Vancouver is 6-12 on the power play over its last four games which is important facing one of the penalty kills in the league. The Devils opened the season 0-2 with a pair of identical 5-2 losses against Philadelphia and Detroit but they have responded with wins in six of their last seven games. New Jersey is tied with the Rangers for first place in the Metropolitan Division with 12 points and it does bring in some impressive numbers. New Jersey has been the most impressive team when it comes to opportunities as it leads the league in both shots per game and shots allowed per game with a differential of over +18 per game. That has translated into a positive scoring differential but not by much as the Devils are outscoring opponents by only 0.8 gpg and while the defense has allowed only two power play goals, the offense has scored only five goals in the man up edge. New Jersey is 1-9 against the money line in its last nine games off a win against a division rival. Here, we play against teams against the money line after allowing one goal or less in their previous game going up against an opponent after scoring five goals or more in two straight games. this situation is 46-21 (68.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (60) Vancouver Canucks |
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11-01-22 | Bruins v. Penguins -105 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PENGUINS as part of our NHL Tuesday Hat Trick. Boston is off to a great start as it is 8-1-0-0 and leads the Eastern Conference by four points over the Rangers and Devils and its four-game roadtrip continues following a 4-0 win over Columbus and now it gets tough with the Penguins, Rangers and Maple Leafs to close it out. This is just the fourth road game of the season for the Bruins which is where their one loss occurred at Ottawa 7-5. They are the highest scoring team in the league with 4.22 gpg and that goes up to 4.67 gpg in those three road games despite only averaging 33 shots per game. they will be facing a tough defense on home ice that will be out for blood. Boston is 2-8 against the money line in its last 10 games after shutting out their opponent in their previous game. The season started great for Pittsburgh as it went 3-0-1-0 in its first four games that included a 3-0-0-0 record at home but then it hit the road that started well and closed horrible. The Penguins defeated Columbus 6-3 to open the trek and then closed with four straight losses where they were outscored 18-6. They finally return home where they are outshooting opponents by close to three shots per game while outscoring them by over four gpg. This is obviously their toughest opponent to see here but the line reflects that based on the Bruins red hot start and their own four-game skid and this is where to get right. Goalie Tristan Jarry will be back between the pipes after an off day Saturday and after two poor road starts, he is back home where he has allowed five goals in three games. Here, we play against road teams after two straight wins by three goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. this situation is 40-16 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (48) Pittsburgh Penguins |
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11-01-22 | Astros v. Phillies +113 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 113 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Phillies got what they wanted in the first two games and that is a split as they were able to gain home field advantage for the next five games and puts the Astros in a tough spot. While the NLCS series clincher was as clutch as it can get, the Game One win solidified what this team has accomplished over the second half of the season and that is to not give in as they rallied from a 5-0 deficit and got to Justin Verlander for five runs in the 6-5 victory. Philadelphia heads back home where the crowds have been incredible and the offense that has averaged 5.5 rpg over its last five games is putting up 5.0 rpg at home while hitting .262. The Phillies bullpen will be integral here as they did not allow a run on Saturday and have a 1.53 ERA over their last seven games as this is likely going to be mostly a bullpen game again even with Ranger Suarez getting the start after Noah Syndergaard got pushed out after the rainout and he is not expected to go very deep but has some relief experience. Philadelphia is 44-24 after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season. The Astros had their seven-game postseason streak come to an end in Game One and were able to hold on to another 5-0 lead in Game Two, eventually winning 5-2. While they have been a great team on the road this season, this is not a spot to be favored in by this much. The offense is hitting just .237 away from home while averaging 4.5 rpg and that offense has struggled with a .225 average over the last seven days. Lance McCullers was solid in his opening playoff start against the Mariners but struggles in his second one as he allowed four runs (three earned) on eight hits and one walk over five innings in Game Four of the ALCS against the Yankees. 10* (958) Philadelphia Phillies |
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11-01-22 | Warriors v. Heat | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Tuesday Star Attraction. Miami opened the season with four home games and went 1-3 before hitting the road for what was hoping to be a turnaround trip but after defeating Portland by 21 points to open, the Heat dropped the final two games against Golden St. and Sacramento. This does set up a revenge spot but they are now facing a team that is just as much in desperate mode but with a better roster to recover. Miami plays at a slower pace as it is No. 26 in scoring offense and No. 12 in scoring defense but the shooting percentages on both ends are not good. The slow start is being deemed due to too much individualism from the players whereas last season they played team basketball. Going back, Miami is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games. The Warriors have also lost two straight games to fall to 3-4 on the season and those were two bad losses against two of the expected worst teams in the league in Charlotte and Detroit so Miami will have their attention tonight. Golden St. fell to 0-3 on the road following those two defeats with the other coming against Phoenix and it has been outscored by an average of 16.6 ppg on the highway and no doubt teams are out to scorch the reigning champs, this team should not be allowing this to happen. Golden St. is playing at a fast pace as it is No. 3 in the league in scoring but sitting No. 29 in points allowed yet it has outshot opponents from the floor based on effective field goal percentages. Here, we play on road teams after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, in November games. this situation is 54-25 ATS (68.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (571) Golden St. Warriors |
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11-01-22 | Buffalo v. Ohio +3 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the OHIO BOBCATS for our CFB Tuesday Enforcer. Buffalo has won five straight games after a 0-3 start that included a bad loss against Holy Cross of the FCS and overall, the Bulls are 6-0-1 ATS against teams from the FBS. They have covered four of their last five games by double-digits which is a big reason they come in as a road favorite. Buffalo does nothing special on either side of the ball as it is ranked No. 58 or lower in all major statistical categories on offense and defense. The Bulls lead the MAC East Division with a 4-0 record but extending that will be difficult here as they face another hot team that can overtake them in the standings with a victory. Buffalo is now 3-2 on the road but one of those victories came against 1-7 Massachusetts and now will be facing a team that is also looking for revenge after Buffalo scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to win 27-26 at home last season. Not to be outdone, Ohio has turned it around as well as it has won three games in a row and four of its last five after a 1-2 start and the Bobcats have covered four straight games and the only outright loss over that stretch came in overtime at Kent St. The defense was atrocious early in the season but they have picked up their game of late as they have allowed only 31 points over the last two games which has moved them to 3-1 in the MAC East Division and they can leapfrog the Bulls because of the head-to-head tiebreaker. Digging deeper into the analytical numbers, Ohio is ranked No. 68 in EPA on offense and No. 117 on defense while Buffalo is ranked No. 67 in EPA on offense and No. 114 on defense so the numbers are nearly identical and with the Bobcats coming in with a 4-0 record at home, they have the edge as home underdogs. Here, we play against road teams off an upset win as a home underdog of seven or more points, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 51-21 ATS (70.8 percent) since 1992. 10* (304) Ohio Bobcats |
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10-31-22 | Bengals v. Browns +3 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND BROWNS for our NFL Monday Enforcer. The Bengals have won four of their last five games following a 0-2 start and they have covered five straight games which makes this a great go against spot as they come in as an overreacted road favorite. While the wins have come around, it has kind of been a sloppy way that has accomplished that as Cincinnati has been outgained in four of its seven games by 175 yards combined. Joe Burrow is coming off a spectacular game after a few subpar efforts before that and the issue has been protection with the offensive line struggling against good pressure defenses and while Cleveland is not the best, it is far from the worst as it saw last week against the Falcons. The running game, even with Joe Mixon, has been non-existent as the Bengals are ranked No. 30 in rushing offense. On the other side, Cincinnati has not been good at stopping the run and while it shut down Atlanta, the Falcons had no choice but to pass and Cleveland has the third best rushing offense in the league. Cleveland is off to a 2-5 start but it has played a lot better than that as it has outgained five of its seven opponents but that has not panned out as the Browns have lost four games by three points or less. The offense has struggled the last two games against New England and Baltimore but scored 26 or more points in four of their first five games and overall, the offense is ranked No. 7 in total offense and No. 11 in scoring offense so give Jacoby Brissett credit for doing what he was expected to do and manage games. Cleveland has been inconsistent on defense but it has limited most of the passing attacks it has faced including allowing just 94 yards to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens last week and while facing Burrow is no easy task, we cannot forget he is without his best weapon as Ja'Marr Chase is out for a few weeks. The Browns were gashed on the ground against the Falcons and Chargers but have allowed 104 yards or fewer on the ground to four opponents. 10* (278) Cleveland Browns |
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10-31-22 | Kings v. Blues -114 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Monday Breakaway. St. Louis opened the season 3-0 but has now lost its last four games and none have been close as the Blues have been outscored 20-7 in those four defeats. This comes after giving up five combined goals in those three wins. Goalie Jordan Binnington was responsible for six goals allowed on Saturday against Montreal and we can throw that one out the window as he allowed 1.75 gpg in his previous four starts before that. After allowing no goals on the power play in their first five games in 11 chances, they allowed three in five opportunities over the last two. The offense has also been a disappointment as the Blues are ranked No. 29 in scoring and No. 24 in shots per game and that should change here against a bad defense. St. Louis is 14-4 in its last 18 home games after two straight blowout losses by three goals or more. Los Angeles had a solid 2-1 homestand with the two wins coming against Tampa Bay and Toronto by identical 4-2 scores and are back on the road where they re 3-2-0-0 and that winning record is working in our favor with the number. The Kings have scored four goals or more in six of their last eight games while averaging 3.5 gpg overall which is No. 8 in the league. The aforementioned defense has been a different story as they are allowing 4.1 gpg, No. 29 in the NHL, and they have given up 10 power play goals in 45 chances so they are giving the opponent too many open opportunities on special teams. The Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games playing on one day of rest. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing four goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 165-89 (65 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (40) St. Louis Blues |
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10-31-22 | Pacers v. Nets -8.5 | Top | 109-116 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Monday Supreme Annihilator. We lost with the Nets Saturday but are back on them here in another get right game. Brooklyn has opened the campaign awful as is off to a 1-5 start to the season following that loss against the Pacers but we see some serious revenge here. The first five games were against teams all expected to make the playoffs and overall, the schedule is still ranked No. 9 in the league but above average teams should still have more than one win in those games and three of those were not even close with losses by 22, 10 and 11 points. Brooklyn is ranked No. 28 in point differential and No. 30 in defensive efficiency and its once top ranked offense is now No. 15 in efficiency. The Pacers opened the season by going 1-2 at home with the win coming against equally bad Detroit and started their five-game roadtrip with losses at Philadelphia and Chicago by 14 and 15 points respectively before playing at Washington on Friday that resulted in a win and then another upset over the Nets the following night. The defense has been atrocious as Indiana is ranked No. 26 in the league in points allowed and this is no surprise with so many new parts and young players dotting the roster. While the Brooklyn defense has been even worse, it has the more complete roster. We are getting excellent line value here as Indiana closed as 11-point underdogs in the first meeting. Indiana is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 games coming off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. Here, we play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a straight up loss as a favorite of seven or more points going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. This situation is 22-4 ATS (84.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (558) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-30-22 | Wolves -5.5 v. Spurs | Top | 98-107 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Minnesota continues its early season run of playing a very soft schedule and while San Antonio is off to a great start by their standards, that will not withstand and we are now dealing with a very manageable number. The Timberwolves are 4-2 which is okay but they should actually have a better record based on playing the easiest schedule in the league thus far and it shows in the spreads as they have been favored by at least seven points in all six of their games. This is already the third meeting with the Spurs and after losing the first one, they got their revenge two nights later and then followed that up with a win over the Lakers on Friday and this is the final game against the nonelite crowd as they have games with Phoenix and Milwaukee on deck. This will not be a lookahead spot based on their average record and the fact Minnesota has already lost once to the Spurs so they cannot take them lightly. San Antonio is the early surprise of the season as it is 4-2 as well with every outright win coming as an underdog and this has been a team that has clearly been coached up. The Spurs defeated Chicago on Friday by five points as a five-point underdog but the Bulls were shorthanded with no Zach LaVine and Minnesota is fully healthy. The offense has been playing very well but the defense still has a lot to be desired as the Spurs are ranked No. 29 in scoring defense and No. 28 in shooting defense and are again facing a strong offense that hung 134 points on them in the most recent meeting. Here, we play against home underdogs revenging a road loss of 10 points or more, off an upset win as an underdog. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (545) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-30-22 | Commanders v. Colts -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -100 | 94 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. Things cannot get much worse for the Colts on offense so a move from Matt Ryan to Sam Ehlinger is far from a downgrade as Ryan ended his time in Indianapolis with an 84.7 quarterback rating and leads the NFL with nine interception and nine fumbles and was sacked a league high 24 times. Part of that can be blamed on the offensive line but Ryan as a statue and Ehlinger is more mobile and has had a week to work with the first team offense. The Indianapolis offense is No. 30 in scoring but that is due to turnovers and sacks killing drive because it is a very respectable No. 16 in total offense so cutting down the mistakes will drastically help this offense. The running game has been back which is a sur[rise with Jonathan Taylor but he has been hurt and in his return last week, he ran for only 58 yards but it was on only 10 carries and we can expect a bigger workload this week against a below average Commanders rushing defense. The Colts are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game while going 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a divisional loss. Washington is coming off an upset win over Green Bay and has now won two games in a row, the other being against Chicago, following a four-game losing streak. Both of those wins were rather unimpressive with how those two teams are trudging along but the victories help us out here with the line in addition to the public being down on the Colts. The Washington defense held the Packers offense to 232 total yards as Green Bay went 0-for-7 on third and fourth down and while this looks impressive, the Packers offense has been broken all season. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke played ok in his first start as he was 20-33 for only 201 yards with two touchdowns and an interception but the running game made it up for it with a season high 166 yards and they will likely go that route again but the Colts rushing defense, while not the close to the best, can make a difference and force Heinicke to make more plays. This is a tough spot as well with Minnesota and Philadelphia on deck. 10* (272) Indianapolis Colts |
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10-30-22 | Panthers v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -107 | 99 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA FALCONS for our NFC South Game of the Year. We played against Atlanta last week as it got absolutely pounded by Cincinnati as it was over early with the Falcons having no answers for Joe Burrow and his sensational group of receivers but it is not the same this week against P.J. Walker and his receiving corps. The Falcons were gashed through the air for 481 yards as they had no pass rush to slow down Burrow but are now in a different spot against a raw quarterback with a shaky offensive line. Atlanta opened the season 6-0 against the number and because of the results from last week, this line that opened at -6.5 has dropped a couple points and there is now value on the Falcons that are in a great bounce back spot. They are now 3-4 having played the No. 9 ranked schedule in the league, going 1-3 against top 16 teams and 2-1 against teams outside that and are catching the Panthers at the right time. With the Buccaneers struggling, the Falcons are tied for first place in the NFC South heading into Week Eight and this is actually a big game as they are 0-2 in the division. The Panthers pulled off the big upset over Tampa Bay last week which snapped a three-game losing streak with all of those losses coming by double-digits. The Matt Rhule experiment did not last very long and part of the season was that Carolina could not beat the bad teams as going back, they are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. The schedule has been in their favor thus far as the Panthers have played five of their first seven games at home and this starts the stretch of three of their next four games taking place on the road. Carolina has been outgained in six of its seven games with the two plus games coming by just 10 and 21 yards as it possesses the worst offense in the NFL, being held to fewer than 300 total yards in five of their games including both games on the road. Carolina has failed to cover its last six games going back to last season while the Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points. 10* (258) Atlanta Falcons |
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10-30-22 | Bears v. Cowboys -9 | Top | 29-49 | Win | 100 | 94 h 38 m | Show |
This is a play on the DALLAS COWBOYS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. Dallas won its first game in the return of quarterback Dak Prescott and while it ended up being an 18-point win, the offense was not sharp until it was able to pull away late and a lot of this had to do with Prescott being rusty after having a few weeks off. Now that he has that first game back under his belt, he should be better off here and will look to keep pace with the Eagles in the NFC East. The defense did the job once again as the Cowboys have allowed fewer than 20 points in six of their seven games with the lone exception being their game against the Eagles and overall, Dallas is No. 2 in scoring defense and No. 6 in total defense. Offensively, it has been a struggle but Cooper Rush did just enough to manage the games and with the offensive line getting better after each week, this unit can start rolling and this matchup will allow that this week. the Cowboys have played a tough schedule and they come in a perfect 3-0 against teams ranked outside the top 16, winning those games by an average of 13.3 ppg. Dallas is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against teams with a losing record. We won with the Bears on Monday as they rolled over the Patriots but that was more of a play against New England and the spot it was in and that Chicago victory sets up a great spot to play against them here. The defense was excellent as thy allowed only 260 yards of offense but they face an offense that is nearly back to full strength for a second straight week. this is a classic overreaction that we talk about a lot and in this case, it is even more so because this was the Monday Night game that everyone saw. Chicago was able to move the ball on offense in some capacity against the Patriots but still managed only 390 total yards and the Bears are ranked No. 28 in total offense and No. 24 in scoring offense and while they possess the top ranked rushing offense in the NFL, the Cowboys will shut them down as they have dominated opposing rushing attacks the last three weeks. The Bears are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with a winning home record. 10* (254) Dallas Cowboys |
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10-30-22 | Dolphins v. Lions +3.5 | Top | 31-27 | Loss | -105 | 89 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT LIONS for our NFL Ultimate Underdog. The old Lions seem to be back but with the market soured on them, we will be backing them here. After opening the season 1-3 with the three losses by a combined 10 points, they have lost their last two games by a combined 53-6 but injuries have played a big role in that with the two top playmakers D'Andre Swift and Amon St. Brown missing most of the last three games but both are listed as probable this week so the offense should get back to what it was early in the season. The last two games have brought the numbers down but Detroit is still ranked No. 4 in total offense and No. 9 in scoring offense and have gone up against two top defenses the last two games but that is not the case here. Detroit has averaged 38.6 ppg in its three home games as the fast turf has been on its side. The Lions defense has been the real issue as they are deal last in total defense and scoring defense but they have performed much better over the last two games with no offense to back it up. The Lions are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami snapped a three-game slide with a 16-10 win over Pittsburgh on Sunday night but it was rather unimpressive with Tua Tagovailoa making his first start since being out with a concussion as it managed only 372 total yards but the public still loves the Dolphins. The offense is ranked No. 10 overall with the big game second half at Baltimore skewing those numbers and the Dolphins are ranked just No. 19 in scoring, putting up 21 points or less in six of their seven games. The defense has not been very good and while it is not on the level on the Lions, they are in the bottom third of the league overall, in passing defense and in scoring defense. The secondary has major issues going on and while they flourished against a rookie quarterback, they could be in trouble here. Safety Brandon Jones injured his knee and corner Byron Jones remains out while corners Nik Needham and Trill Williams were already placed on IR. The Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a losing home record. 10* (262) Detroit Lions |
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10-29-22 | San Diego State v. Fresno State -8.5 | Top | 28-32 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the FRESNO ST. BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Fresno St. has won two straight games following a four-game losing streak and it is another team that can still run the table. The Bulldogs opened Mountain West Conference play with a loss to Boise St. but bounced back with victories over San Jose St. and New Mexico. Fresno St. is tied atop the West Division with San Jose St. and San Diego St., and a victory over the Aztecs would give Fresno St. a tiebreaker edge over both teams. This team came into the season as the favorite in the MWC West Division and the Bulldogs are still in good position to represent the conference in the conference championship game. Quarterback Jake Haener has been out with a high ankle sprain and it likely out again but there is still a possibility he returns and while Logan Fife has struggled overall as his replacement, he is coming off a good game against New Mexico and while the Lobos are trash, so is the defense he will be facing this week as the last two games have skewed everything. San Diego St. is coming off a pair of wins to move over .500 for the first time this season but those wins came against Hawaii and Nevada which are the two lowest ranked teams in the MWC and it is not even close and the Aztecs did not look good in either win. They outgained the two doormats by a combined 165 total yards which is surely a positive but those two games should have seen bigger yardage differentials as this is not a very good team which was known coming into the season. They were outgained in four of their first five games with the only advantage being their game against Idaho St. of the FCS. San Diego St. did defeat Nevada on the road last week and in the previous road game against a team with a pulse, it had only 114 total yards against Boise St. The offense is ranked No. 123 overall and No. 116 in scoring and scoring only 39 points against Hawaii and Nevada is not good. This is an excellent situation for Fresno St. as we play on conference home favorites that won as a conference road favorite by 13 or more points playing a team off back-to-back wins as a conference favorite. This situation is 55-20 ATS (73.3 percent) the last 75 occurrences. 10* (170) Fresno St. Bulldogs |
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10-29-22 | Oilers v. Flames -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY FLAMES for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Edmonton is riding a three-game winning streak going into the second meeting in the Battle of Alberta where the Flames claimed the victory in the first matchup. The Oilers will be out for revenge from that but that is not an angle to be playing on the road especially in this run they are on as they are playing their third road game in four nights. The Oilers won at St. Louis, 3-1, on Wednesday and followed that up with a 6-5 victory at Chicago on Thursday that featured 17 penalties which resulted in five power play goals between the two teams. Edmonton has recorded 38 or more shots in only three games while staying under 30 shots in four games so it has been an inconsistent stretch to start the season. The Oilers were outshot 42-29 in the first meeting and the Oilers are 3-7 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record. The Flames are in the midst of an eight-game homestand and while the schedule has been home heavy, they have played some tough competition. Calgary has played just six games and has won five of those including two in a row. The Flames defeated Colorado, the road win over Edmonton and home wins over Vegas, Carolina and Pittsburgh with the only loss against surprising Buffalo. The Flames are averaging 3.67 gpg while outshooting opponents by close to nine gpg so they are playing at a high level and while they already got their revenge on Edmonton after getting bounced by the Oilers in the playoffs last season, they want some home revenge after losing the series clincher here in overtime. The Flames are 5-2 in their last seven games when their opponent allows five goals or more in their previous game. Here, we play against underdogs against the money line after having won four or five of their last six games, playing six or more games in 10 days. This situation is 132-54 (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (22) Calgary Flames |
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10-29-22 | Pacers v. Nets -10.5 | Top | 125-116 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a play on the BROOKLYN NETS for our NBA Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Brooklyn has opened the campaign awful as is off to a 1-4 start to the season following an overtime loss against Dallas on Thursday but this is the game to get things right. The first five games were against teams all expected to make the playoffs and overall, the schedule is ranked No. 2 in the league but above average teams should still have more than one win in those games and three of those were not even close with losses by 22, 10 and 11 points. How ugly is it? Brooklyn is ranked No. 28 in point differential and No. 30 in defensive efficiency and its once top ranked offense is now No. 17 in efficiency. Clearly, it is early and the play of Ben Simmons has been anything but good yet there is so much time to get it right and this starts the stretch of five straight games where they will be significant favorites so this is a big week and a half coming up. Indiana is off to a poor start as well but this one was expected. The Pacers opened the season by going 1-2 at home with the win coming against equally bad Detroit and started their five-game roadtrip with losses at Philadelphia and Chicago by 14 and 15 points respectively before playing at Washington on Friday that resulted in a win. The defense has been atrocious as Indiana is ranked dead last in the league in points allowed and this is no surprise with so many new parts and young players dotting the roster. This is a big number but a justified one and the first complete effort from the Nets comes Saturday. Here, we play on teams after two or more consecutive losses in the first six games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost four or more of their last five games. This situation is 104-61 (63 percent) since 1996. 10* (528) Brooklyn Nets |
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10-29-22 | Missouri +4 v. South Carolina | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the MISSOURI TIGERS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. South Carolina has won four straight games but it has been fortunate along the way with some deceiving victories. The Gamecocks started the streak with a blowout win by 36 points over Charlotte which just fired their coach and then came up with another blowout against South Carolina St. of the FCS. South Carolina then defeated Kentucky by 10 points on the road which looks impressive but the Wildcats were without starting quarterback Will Levis and last week, it was another upset against Texas A&M by six points but they were outgained by 112 yards as they jumped out to a 17-0 start thanks to returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown and then turning two Aggies turnovers into 10 more points. The special teams and defense have bolstered their scoring average as the offense is ranked No. 83 in the country overall as a strength coming into the season was supposed to be from transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma but he has underwhelmed by throwing for only 1,465 yards with five touchdowns and eight interceptions while getting sacked 15 times. The Gamecocks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win. The Tigers moved to 3-4 on the season with a tougher than expected win over Vanderbilt last week as the offense sputtered but the defense once again kept them in it. They are ranked No. 22 in total defense and both units have performed well at No. 32 against the pass and No. 46 against the run and they will be facing a below average offense once again. After allowing 40 points to Kansas St. in their second game of the season, they have given up just 19.6 ppg over their last five games. Missouri is 0-3 on the road but two of those losses came at Florida and at Auburn by a combined 10 points and it outgained the Gators and Tigers by 73 and 95 total yards respectively. The worst effort over that stretch was allowing 26 points and that came against Georgia which shows the high level that the Missouri defense has been playing. The public wants nothing to do with the Tigers this week and that is just how we like it. The Tigers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. 10* (127) Missouri Tigers |
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10-29-22 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida -1 | Top | 21-25 | Win | 100 | 46 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CENTRAL FLORIDA KNIGHTS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. Central Florida had a four-game winning streak snapped with a 34-13 loss at East Carolina last week but the game was a lot closer than that final score indicates as the Knights were outgained by only 32 yards but were -4 in turnovers and no team can overcome that. They are now 2-1 in the AAC which is good for a tie for third place and UFC can still run the table and it starts this week against Cincinnati. Last week, quarterback John Rhys Plumlee went 25-37 for 298 yards but he threw three interceptions which killed drives and the Knights are now No. 6 in total offense and No. 20 in scoring offense and while facing a tough defense, they can bounce back at home before hitting the road for a pair of tough games against Memphis and first place Tulane. The defense was not horrible against the Pirates but the points allowed were due to those turnovers and prior to that, they allowed an average of 14 ppg and now face a decent but far from powerful offense. The Knights are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. Cincinnati opened the season with a loss at Arkansas but has reeled off six straight wins including opening 3-0 in the conference but it has not been dominating. The Bearcats defeated SMU on its homecoming as a failed two-point conversion late in the game ended up being the difference and they benefitted from knocking out Mustangs quarterback Tanner Mordecai. They are ranked No. 17 in total defense but even that is a bit skewed as their two dominating games came against Miami Ohio and Kennesaw St. of the FCS and they have allowed 24 or more points in three of their last four games and will be tested here. Offensively, Cincinnati is ranked No. 45 overall and while it is No. 24 in coring, a lot of that is due to the defense setting up short fields and as mentioned, will be facing a strong defense that is a bit underrated. While they have been winning, they have not been covering at a high rate and they are underdogs for the first time since that Arkansas game for a reason. The Bearcats are 2-1 on the road but going back, they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five road games. 10* (146) Central Florida Knights |
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10-29-22 | Miami-FL -2 v. Virginia | Top | 14-12 | Push | 0 | 44 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HURRICANES for our ACC Game of the Year. Miami is coming off one of its worst games in recent history as it was blown out by Duke 45-21 as a 10-point favorite but committed a school record eight turnovers which completely wiped out any chance for the offense to get going as it was outgained by only nine yards. The Hurricanes were up 21-17 late in the third quarter when it all imploded as they were outscored 28-0 the rest of the way and they will be out for blood this week and laying a short price against one of the lowest ranked teams in the conference. Following a blowout win to open the season, Miami has failed to cover each of its last six games and by an average of over two touchdowns with miscues all over the place that has brought it down. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke left the game last week with a shoulder injury and backup Jake Garcia was trash but to his credit, he was forced into action with no practice time with the starters but he was able to work all week with them this week. The Hurricanes have outgained five of seven opponents and their numbers overall are very solid as they are ranked No. 33 in total offense and No. 34 in total defense so while their record is playing into this spread, the statistics are not. Virginia was fortunate to beat Georgia Tech last week as Yellow Jackets quarterback Jeff Sims went down and the offense went down with him as backup Zack Gibson could not move the offense, going 10-25 for 99 yards and Georgia Tech mustered just 202 total yards of offense. The Cavaliers also come in at 3-4 but they are a much worse 3-4 than Miami as they have been blown out in three of their losses while getting outgained by an average of 112.3 ypg. Virginia is ranked No. 90 in total offense and No. 123 in scoring offense and did nothing much against one of the worst defenses in the ACC last week. the defense has played at a higher level as the Cavaliers are ranked No. 38 overall and No. 43 in points allowed but do not have a ball hawking secondary that has only five interceptions on the season. Here, we play against home teams in the second half of the season averaging between 230 and 275 passing ypg and after allowing 4.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 230 and 275 passing ypg. This situation is 40-14 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1992. 10* (143) Miami Hurricanes |
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10-28-22 | Lakers +8.5 v. Wolves | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES LAKERS for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. The Lakers are 0-4 both straight up and against the number and they are obviously the talk of the league which is not a good thing. Yes, there is pressure but they are only four games in and the talent is too good for this team to be playing so poor and making this one more important is the fact they head back to Los Angeles for a four-game homestand and being 0-5 in front of that crowd is not ideal. We only care about the cover here though as this number is way too high as the public overreaction is working in our favor. The defense has not been great but it is one that can be worked around and it is the offense that needs to get it together. The Lakers are the second worst shooting team in the league at 41.6 percent and being in the mix with Detroit, Houston and Oklahoma City at the bottom of those rankings is not a good thing. Additionally, they are by far the worst three-point shooting team in the NBA at a mere 22.3 percent while averaging only eight makes per game but they have been at least better on the road in the two games compared to the two games at home. We won with Minnesota on Wednesday as it was able to win and cover the second game of a back-to-back with San Antonio and is again laying a big number at home. We know this is a very talented team but the Timberwolves have had the luxury of playing no one as they have played the easiest schedule thus far in the NBA. Many will put Los Angeles into this group but not quite yet and the fact it was getting five points at Denver in its last game and now are getting more than that which is too aggressive. The offense is in the top five in both shooting and scoring but that goes up against the strength of the Lakers as Los Angeles is top 11 in both and while both are small sample sizes, it is a benefit. While the Lakers have been brutal, it is too soon to lump them into the likes of those young teams like Utah and Oklahoma City and that is what this spread is telling us. Huge value on Los Angeles here. 10* (511) Los Angeles Lakers |
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10-28-22 | Phillies +156 v. Astros | Top | 6-5 | Win | 156 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. After a lengthy time off, baseball is back as the World Series opens on Friday with Houston hosting Philadelphia in Game One. The Astros have cruised in the postseason as they have not lost, going 7-0 so they are going to be ridden by many until they lose and we are banking on that in Game One. Six of those seven wins were by one or two runs so some of them could have gone either way but Houston has been clutch when needed but the same can be said for the other side. Justin Verlander gets the ball for the opener and he has had a season for the ages as Tommy John surgery did not deter him as he has posted a 1.99 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in 30 starts with Houston going 22-8 in those games and this will be just his fourth start this month so while he is rested, it might be a little too much. The one negative on his side is his World Series history as he is 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA in seven starts and while each situation is different, he is facing a red hot offense that has destroyed some elite pitching in the postseason. The Phillies are 7-2 in the playoffs and no win was more clutch than the NLCS clincher on a two-run home run from Bryce Harper to eliminate the Padres. Aaron Nola has also had an outstanding season but he was bit by some bad luck as despite a 3.24 ERA and 0.97 WHIP, he was hit with 14 losses but most of the damage was done early in the season when the Phillies were playing bad as the lost eight of his first nine starts. In three postseason starts, he has a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with an 18:3 K:BB ratio. Philadelphia is 31-13 against the money line after a win by two runs or less this season. Here, we play against home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 0.80 or better over his last three starts. This situation is 59-36 (62.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Philadelphia Phillies |
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10-28-22 | East Carolina v. BYU -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the BYU COUGARS for our CFB Friday Night Lights Winner. This has not been classic BYU football over the last few weeks as the Cougars have lost three straight games but it has come against some tough competition. They lost to Notre Dame, which is not having a good season but it is still Notre Dame with a load of talent, Arkansas from the SEC and Liberty, which is 7-1, the only loss coming by a point against Wake Forest. Overall, BYU has played a schedule ranked No. 32 and has gone 1-3 against top 30 teams while going 3-1 against teams ranked outside the top 30 and that is where East Carolina falls. The key number here is 0-6 and that pertains to the 0-6 ATS run that BYU is on which creates value and we can look back to two home games against Wyoming and Utah St. where they were favored by more than three touchdowns and while those two teams are ranked lower than East Carolina, the power ranking point spread differentials between them and the Pirates are seven and 12 points. The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game. East Carolina has won two straight games, taking out Memphis and UCF and now is in a bad scheduling spot as it goes out of conference right in the middle of the heated AAC race with games against Cincinnati and Houston on deck so this is the classic sandwich spot. The Pirates are 5-3 including a 3-2 record in the conference and this is just the third road game of the season after playing six of their first eight games at home. They have an edge with their offense but they scored only nine points against Tulane in their last road game and we can see this offense having a tough time on the road again. East Carolina is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better and 10-27 ATS in its last 37 games after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games. While this is a game for East Carolina to become bowl eligible, BYU is the more desperate team in need to right the ship. 10* (112) BYU Cougars |
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10-28-22 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets +140 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS for our NHL Friday Breakaway. Boston won on Thursday over Detroit 5-1 to move to 7-1-0-0 on the season and it has the early lead in the Atlantic Division by five points over Toronto and Florida and hits the road for the start of a four-game roadtrip. The Bruins have played a very favorable schedule as six of the first eight games were at home including the last four and they have played the second easiest schedule in the NHL which is part of the reason Boston is just No. 8 in the updated power rankings after last night. The Bruins possess the No. 2 scoring offense in the NHL with 4.25 gpg while putting up over 35 shots per game and this includes scoring five goals in each of the first two road games where they are 1-1 as the defense has allowed 4.50 gpg. The one strong aspect of that defense is the special teams and on the penalty kill, Boston has stopped 28 of 30 shots and that .933 save percentage is tied for second best in the league. Going back, the Bruins are 1-5 in their last six games playing on no rest and that includes the one loss in this situation this season. Columbus is off to an average start as it is 3-5-0-0 but is has gone 3-2 following a 0-3 start and have had a couple days to recover from its bad 6-3 loss to Arizona on Tuesday as more than a 2-2 favorite. Despite the loss against the Coyotes, the Blue Jackets got a big piece back as they activated Patrik Laine off injured reserve Tuesday, getting the winger back in the lineup for the first time since their season opener and while he did not produce a point, he had a team high five shots and he was third on the team last season with 56 points. This is an excellent spot catching the Bruins in the second of a back-to-back and Columbus is 8-4 against the money line in its last 12 games off a home loss by two goals or more. Here, we play against road teams with a winning percentage of .700 or better after having won five or six of their last seven games playing a team with a losing record. This situation is 43-31 (58.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (76) Columbus Blue Jackets |
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10-27-22 | Utah v. Washington State +9 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON ST. COUGARS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. Both Utah and Washington St. are coming off their bye week and they are sitting in the top and bottom half of the Pac 12 respectively. Washington St. is part of a group of six teams that have just one conference victory so it is not looking very good for a shot at the Pac 12 Championship but the schedule is in its favor down the stretch to get to five wins with a possible six with a victory here. It will not be easy but we are more concerned about the cover and this is a very good number. As a comparison, two home games back, the Cougars were getting 6.5 points against first place Oregon and are getting a bigger number here based on their two straight losses. Those were both on the road and they are 3-1 at home with the lone loss coming against that Ducks team by just three points. The Washington St. offense has been a letdown as it is ranked No. 89 overall and No. 95 in scoring but the splits are the reason as it averages 32.8 ppg at home compared to 13.7 ppg on the road. It will be facing a defense that has underachieved and they can have success here. Washington St. is 22-9 ATS in its last 31 home games after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game. Utah is coming off a big win over USC to improve to 3-1 in the conference but it has not been overly dominant as the Utes are only +31.3 ypg in Pac 12 games. The aforementioned defense has been the problem as they have allowed 42 points in back-to-back games against USC and UCLA and while Washington St, does not possess the same potent offense, it is more than capable. The Utes have relied on their offense that is currently No. 20 in the nation overall and No. 11 in scoring but will be squaring off against a Cougars defense that has allowed only 20.7 ppg which is No. 27 in the country. Utah has won only one of three road games with that coming against 2-5 Arizona St. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points after gaining 450 or more total yards in two consecutive games, with eight offensive starters returning. This situation is 54-19 ATS (74 percent) since 1992. 10* (108) Washington St. Cougars |
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10-27-22 | Ravens v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -108 | 69 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS for our NFL Thursday Star Attraction. Tampa Bay is a broken mess right now and this is the time to buy following a 1-4 run that includes two straight outright losses as a double-digit favorite and we are seeing a double-digit line shift. The 21-3 loss marks the sixth time in seven games the Buccaneers have failed to score more than 21 points, averaging just 20.2 ppg and it came against a team that had lost 12 of their previous 13 games and were down to their third string quarterback. The offense has struggled to maintain any consistency which is incredibly frustrating with all of the talent around Tom Brady but he is partly to blame as well. He has thrown only one interception but has been bad on third down as they are converting at a 35.1 percent clip which is No. 26 in the league after a 44.8 percent conversion rate last season which was No. 5 in the NFL. The defense remains strong as the Buccaneers are No. 7 overall and No. 5 in points allowed but the defense is experiencing a three-game takeaway drought. Tampa Bay is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 games coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Baltimore snuck out a win over Cleveland as it averted another late collapse and avoided becoming just the third team in the past decade to lose four times in the first seven weeks in games in which they held double-digit leads. For the third time in the last four weeks, the Ravens fell short of the 350-yard mark offensively and the last came against a defense ranked No. 29 in the league. The Ravens are still ranked No. 6 in scoring offense but have scored 23 points or less in their last three games. The defense allowed Jacoby Brissett and the Browns to stay within reach until the very end despite a ferocious Ravens pass rush and the defense is allowing 23.5 ppg which is No. 21 while allowing 366.4 ypg which is No. 23. They have a passing defense that has struggled so Brady can have that breakout game that everyone has been waiting for. The Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a losing record. 10* (102) Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
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10-27-22 | Wild -120 v. Senators | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA WILD for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. It has been a slow start for Minnesota as it is 2-3-0-1 but is coming off a win at Montreal to get some confidence rolling in the second game of this five-game roadtrip. The Wild opened the season with three straight losses at home as they allowed 20 goals which is basically unwinnable but the defense has stepped up over their 2-0-1-0 stretch by allowing just eight goals, seven in regulation. While that is a big boost, the offense has been consistent throughout the season, averaging 3.67 gpg on over 34 shots per game. They have outshot five of six opponents and the power play has been efficient as they are scoring at a 32 percent clip which is fourth best in the league and catch a team that has overachieved thus far. The Wild are 21-9 in their last 30 games against teams from the Eastern Conference. Ottawa opened the season with a pair of losses against Toronto and Buffalo but has responded with four straight wins as the offense has exploded. After scoring only three goals in those first two games, the Senators have scored 22 goals during their four-game winning streak all of which have come at home and despite that, they are the slight underdog here which is correct. They are catching a hot goalie as Marc-Andre Fleury who has picked it up over his last three starts after a rough opening to the season and he can slow this offense down. The Senators are 33-73 in their last 106 games when their opponent allows two goals or less in their previous game. Here, we play against home underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line off a home win scoring four or more goals going up against an opponent off a road win. This situation is 36-9 (80 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (53) Minnesota Wild |
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10-26-22 | Heat +1 v. Blazers | Top | 119-98 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Nonconference Game of the Month. Things have not started well for Miami as it is off to a 1-3 start and most troubling is the fact all four of those games were at home. Now the Heat hit the road on the west coast for the start of a three-game trip that includes a game at Golden St. on Thursday and while that would normally be a spot for this to constitute a lookahead, that is not going to happen with the brutal start. Hitting the road at this time may not seem ideal but heat coach Erik Spoelstra said playing on the road could be beneficial because of the bonding experience and that can help a team like this that has had past success and now dealing with some early adversity. Miami was an underdog 23 times last season and won 14 of those outright. Portland is coming off a win over Denver on Monday to improve to 4-0 and it is a surprise as the last time it opened 4-0 was 1999 and the Blazers are the lone undefeated team in the Western Conference. Damian Lillard finished with 31 points and eight assists for the Blazers and he has been on fire as he was the Western Conference Player of the Week prior to that and he is now averaging 33. 2 ppg on 50 percent shooting while averaging 5.5 rebounds per game and 5.2 assists per game. The Blazers have impressively won all four games as underdogs and now they are in the role of favorites, albeit a small one, and we will take the value on the other side against the desperate team. This is the perfect contrarian spot with Miami 0-4 ATS and Portland 4-0 ATS. Here, we play against home favorites off a win against a division rival in the first half of the season. This situation is 82-43 ATS (65.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (555) Miami Heat |
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10-26-22 | Spurs v. Wolves -8.5 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Wednesday Supreme Annihilator. Minnesota is in revenge mode following a Monday loss against San Antonio and we are backing the Timberwolves again for a lot of the same reasons from Monday. Minnesota is off to a 2-2 start against three of the worst teams in the Western Conference and have a rematch with another. They failed to cover in their win over Oklahoma City as they won by seven as an 11-point favorite and then fell to Utah in overtime as an eight-point chalk and then bounced back with another win over the Thunder on Sunday before getting off to a slow start against the Spurs and could not recover. A 2-2 start against this opposition is not good on this easy initial portion of the schedule and a bounce back is important even early on in the season. San Antonio has started 3-1 as it lost its season opener at home against Charlotte by 27 points but has won the last three games on the road, covering all three numbers and winning outright as big underdogs. It is another transition year for San Antonio as it sent All-Star point guard Dejounte Murray to Atlanta and got Danilo Gallinari, who eventually got waived, three first-round picks in 2023, 2025, and 2027 and a 2026 pick swap so it is clearly playing for the future even though it has not looked that way thus far. The offense has been efficient but the defense has been the opposite and despite a 3-1 record, the Spurs have been outshot and outscored overall through those four games. Here, we play on favorites off an upset loss as a favorite going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog. This situation is 63-29 ATS (68.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (550) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-26-22 | Oilers v. Blues +105 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Edmonton benefitted from a favorable early schedule as it opened the season with six consecutive home games and this is its first road game of the season, the last team in the league to head out on the highway. It has not been a great start as the Oilers are 3-3-0-0 but to their credit, they have played some tough opposition including a pair of games against Calgary, a game against Pittsburgh and a game against St. Louis. The game against the Blues resulted in a 2-0 shutout loss so there is revenge in play here but we all now how we feel about road revenge. Edmonton got the offense going against Pittsburgh in its last game as it recorded 47 shots while tacking on six goals to tie a season high and while the defense allowed just one power play goal in five opportunities, the Oilers have allowed at least one in every game and their .741 penalty kill percentage is tenth worst in the league and their 27 penalties are tied for fourth most. The Blues are back in St. Louis for only their second home game of the season following a three-game roadtrip where they went 2-1 and are off their first loss of the season in a 4-0 shutout at Winnipeg on Monday. The Blues have yet to outshoot an opponent in four games this season which is a concern especially against a team like Edmonton that can pepper the net on any given night but the blueline did a great job as they allowed only 23 shots on goal. The power play has gone 2-9 as they have not had many opportunities and based on the matchup, they should get more chances here. St. Louis has yet to allow a power play goal in nine man-down situations and Jordan Binnington will be back in goal after having Monday off as he has allowed just five goals in his three starts. Here, we play against road teams against the money line after a blowout win by three goals or more going up against an opponent after a blowout loss by three goals or more in their previous game. this situation is 175-121 (59.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (46) St. Louis Blues |
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10-25-22 | Sabres v. Seattle Kraken -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE KRAKEN for our NHL Nonconference Game of the Month. Buffalo has been an early season surprise as it is off to 4-1-0-0 start with all four wins coming as an underdog including huge upsets at Edmonton and Calgary. The Sabres are 3-0-0-0 on the road and have netted 5.6 units and it has not even been close as they have outscored their three opponents 15-5. They come in an underdogs once against albeit much smaller and they will be getting a lot of public action on Tuesday and that is an oxymoron for Buffalo as it has been one of the worst road teams in the league over the last few years. They have been doing it a very unconventional way as they have yet to outshoot an opponent and are getting outshot by close to 10 gpg but the special teams has been the edge as in the four wins, they have allowed only one power play goal in 12 chances and the offense has converted 30 percent of their opportunities over their three-game winning streak. Seattle is 2-3-2-0 and is coming off a loss on Sunday against Chicago 5-4 as it blew a two-goal lead going into the third period. The Kraken have yet to win at home as they are 0-2-1-0 and the issue has been the penalty kill where they have allowed four goals in 12 chances while mustering only two power play goals on offense. Unlike Buffalo, they have had more opportunities and they have outshot five of seven opponents including two of three at home and overall they are outshooting opponents by over five gpg. The goaltending needs to get better as they are allowing 3.86 gpg and have a .860 save percentage and whether it is going to be Martin Jones or Phillipp Grubauer, they should be fine. Here, we play on home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing four goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 164-89 (64.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (38) Seattle Kraken |
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10-24-22 | Bears +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 33-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO BEARS for our NFL Monday Game of the Month. Primetime football has been on an awful roll and it continued Monday night with a stinker between the Bears and Patriots but value can be found and we have it here. Chicago came into the season with no expectations and it has played surprisingly well and despite a 2-4 record, its last three losses have been by one possession and it can thank the defense which has kept it competitive. The Bears are No. 15 in total defense and No. 13 in scoring defense and while the rushing defense needs to shore things up, they have held their own and the passing defense has made up for it. That is mostly due to being able to get to the quarterback as the Bears are fifth in pressure rate and have not needed to blitz a ton to do so and they can certainly have success against a young quarterback no matter which one goes Monday. The Patriots have won two in a row following a 1-3 start but they defeated an overrated Lions team that has scored six points in their last two games as injuries have killed them and then blew out the Browns but benefitted from four turnovers that led to 24 points. The New England quarterback situation is still up in the air as Bailey Zappe has looked very good in his limited action and Mac Jones is a gametime decision but the difference between the two is small enough to not affect this line or change the dynamic of the Patriots offense. Defensively, this is where Patriots have thrived against young quarterbacks under Bill Belichick but they have been average overall this season and the Bears have enough again to keep this one close. Here, we play against home teams averaging 7.3 or more passing yards per attempt and after gaining 8 or more passing yards per attempt last game going up against teams allowing between 5.9 and 6.7 passing yards per attempt. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (475) Chicago Bears |
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10-24-22 | Spurs v. Wolves -10 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES for our NBA Monday Supreme Annihilator. Minnesota is off to a 2-1 start against two of the worst teams in the Western Conference and will be facing a fourth on Monday in a great situation as the Timberwolves are ready for another big breakout. They failed to cover in their win over Oklahoma City as they won by seven as an 11-point favorite and then fell to Utah in overtime as an eight-point chalk and then bounced back with another win over the Thunder on Sunday and we are not going to shy away from laying the big number here. Offseason moves have put Minnesota back on the map with the addition of Rudy Gobert and is teamed with Karl-Anthony Towns who finished fourth and third, respectively, the All-NBA voting for centers. In addition, this lineup is loaded with the backcourt of D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards along with defensive specialist Jaden McDaniels who has the length and wingspan that shuts down perimeter shooters. San Antonio has started 2-1 as it lost its season opener at home against Charlotte by 27 points but has won the last two games on the road, covering both numbers as underdogs. It is another transition year for San Antonio as it sent All-Star point guard Dejounte Murray to Atlanta and got Danilo Gallinari, who eventually got waived, three first-round picks in 2023, 2025, and 2027 and a 2026 pick swap so it is clearly playing for the future. Yes, they have played great on the road in the last two games with the offense showing great signs but will be facing a very strong defense that is No. 6 in shooting percentage allowed. This is a very young Spurs team and after having 22 straight postseason appearances, the Spurs will likely miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season. The future looks bright but not now and not in this spot. 10* (522) Minnesota Timberwolves |
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10-24-22 | Penguins v. Oilers -120 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Monday Breakaway. We lost with Edmonton on Saturday as it was shutout against St. Louis and while it has another tough matchup on Monday, the price is right here for a shot to recover. Edmonton outshot the Blues 23-21 which was a small positive but it been outshot in three of their five games which is surprising considering the fast paced offense with great puck movement that they possess. The offense has been unable to find a consistent rhythm as the Oilers are averaging 3.2 gpg which is not typical of this team after averaging 4.1 gpg through all of last season. Another positive from Saturday was the defense which was struggling but allowing only 21 shot was solid as the blueline finally settled down and avoided allowing so many quality looks. The Penguins are off to a great start as they are 4-0-1-0 while outscoring the opposition 26-11 and they lead the Metropolitan Division early on. They rolled at Columbus on Saturday with a 6-3 win and it was efficient with just 39 shots on goal and going 0-3 on the power play. They are averaging 5.2 gpg while allowing 2.2 gpg so they have been dominating but are facing their toughest opponent of the season based on the short line as they have been favored by a minimum of -163 in all five games. The lone loss came on the road at Montreal as it blew a 2-0 lead to lose 3-0 in overtime and this clearly the toughest place it has travelled to thus far. Pittsburgh is 3-9 against the money line in its last 12 road games after scoring four goals or more in two straight games. Here, we play against road teams against the money line after two straight wins by three goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring one goal or less in their previous game. This situation is 39-16 (70.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (18) Edmonton Oilers |
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10-23-22 | Chiefs -1 v. 49ers | Top | 44-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for our NFL Sunday Star Attraction. The Chiefs are coming off a loss against Buffalo at home and their brutal schedule continues this week. Kansas City has played the toughest slate in the NFL and have gone 2-1 against teams ranked in the top ten, where its opponent sits this week, with the two wins coming against the Buccaneers and Chargers. Despite the two losses, Kansas City is ranked No. 2 overall as it should be and this is a good bounce back spot in a scenario where it has excelled in. While Patrick Mahomes is just 8-6 ATS following a loss, Kansas City has won 11 of those 14 games as the majority of the follow up games have come with much bigger lines. Defensively, the Chiefs are in a good spot here as well as they possess the No. 6 ranked pass rush rate and will be going up against a beat up offensive line which will torment Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco has been all over the place with a 3-3 record and those three losses have come against the Bears, Broncos and Falcons. The 49ers have played the No. 32 ranked schedule in the NFL and the only top ten win came against the Rams which are not right either. San Francisco has rolled in its first two home games with the other coming against the overrated Seahawks and it is at a disadvantage on both sides. The acquisition of Christian McCaffrey is a huge one for sure but will surely be limited here so his impact should be minimal. The 49ers defense is banged up and while some pieces will be back but not at 100 percent, namely Nick Bosa and his balky groin, while Arik Armstead is out and Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga appear unlikely to play. Something is not right with this team and this is not the matchup to try and get things going the correct way. Here, we play against home teams outgaining their opponents by 1.25 or more passing ypa, after gaining seven or more passing ypa in three straight games. this situation is 31-8 ATS (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (469) Kansas City Chiefs |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals -6.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI BENGALS for our NFL Nonconference Game of the Month. Cincinnati has won three of its last four games after losing its first two games of the season and it has yet to dominate any team thus far and that should come to an end here. The weakness last season was the offensive line as Joe Burrow was sacked 70 times and it was looking like a repeat after the first couple games but the revamped line has gotten a lot better and is in a great matchup here. The Bengals had issues dealing with good pass rushing team with two of their losses coming against the Steelers, when T.J. Watt was still playing, and the Cowboys. Now Cincinnati faces the worst pass rush ranked team in the NFL and it has had its way on offense against weak rushing teams, scoring 27 points against Miami and 30 points against New Orleans. Overall, the offense is ranked No. 20 and face an awful Atlanta defense that comes in ranked No. 27 overall. Atlanta opened the season with a tough one-point loss against the Saints despite outgaining New Orleans slightly and while it has gone 3-2 over its last five games, the Falcons have been outgained in all five games. The one key thing that everyone will point to is the fact they are a perfect 6-0 ATS which makes this a timely spot to go against that as this line is a lot lower than it should be. The Falcons will try to rely on its rushing game that is ranked No. 3 in the NFL but Cordarrelle Patterson remains out and only one player has gained more than 59 yards in the last three games since he went down. Atlanta is just 1-2 on the road and face a team that is excited to be home with four of their last five games taking place on the road. This is definitely a letdown spot after a two-touchdown win over the 49ers last week despite getting outgained by 57 total yards. Here, we play against road underdogs or pickems off an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog, with a winning percentage of between .450 and .550 on the season. This situation is 37-11 ATS (77.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (458) Cincinnati Bengals |
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10-23-22 | Giants v. Jaguars -3 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS for our NFL Sunday Supreme Annihilator. This is probably the biggest bait bet for the public this week as the 5-1 Giants are going to see a lot of money come their way against a team two games worse but much better overall. New York is probably the biggest surprise through the first third of the season but it is not like it is playing that well as four of those wins easily could have been losses and in the six games, the Giants have been outgained three times including by 168 yards against Baltimore last week and in the three games they have won the yardage battle, it has been by 35, 29 and 37 total yards. The offense has done just enough as it is ranked No. 25 in total offense which includes a No. 31 rank in passing as it has relied on the running game but faces a tough run stop defense here. On the other side, the rushing defense is ranked No. 28 and the Giants have been outrushed in three games despite the strong push on offense. The Jaguars have lost three straight games including a tough one last week against the Colts as they blew a late lead. They are 2-4 overall and those four losses have all been by one possession which shows how competitive this team has been, something we have not seen in a very long time. Jacksonville is playing its third home game of the season, going 1-1 in the first two games but won the yardage battle in both of those games by 113 and 174 total yards. Like the Giants, they have a strong running game that is ranked No. 9 and unlike New York, they have been stout on defense, ranked No. 3 in rushing defense. This is a great spot with their season on the line and facing three AFC West teams in their next three games with just one of those taking place at home. Here, we play on teams where the line is +3 to -3 after three or more consecutive losses against the spread going up against an opponent after two or more consecutive wins against the spread. This situation is 34-8 ATS (81 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (454) Jacksonville Jaguars |
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10-23-22 | Colts v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the TENNESSEE TITANS for our NFL Sunday Enforcer. The Colts are off to a 3-2-1 start but are the fourth lowest ranked team in the league that has a winning record, ahead of only the Vikings, Giants and Jets. They are 1-1-1 on the road with the lone win coming at Denver in overtime by an ugly 12-9 score and were shut out at Jacksonville while tying the hapless Texans. Quarterback Matt Ryan had 389 yards and three touchdowns last week in the revenge victory last week and while he has looked much better in his last four games after a very bad start, he still looks old and clueless at times. Surprisingly, the rushing offense has been a big letdown with Jonathan Taylor being banged up and while he is going to go here, he is not right and will be facing a tough rushing defense. The defense has kept them around and have the edge on that side of the ball here with the exception of the running game as they are ranked No. 21 in rushing defense. Tennessee has won three straight games after opening 0-2 and it is coming off its bye week which can hurt the positive momentum but for a physical team like the Titans, the week off is a positive in this case. This game could go a long way in deciding the AFC South as the Colts would fall to 1-3-1 in the division with little wiggle room despite a lot of football remaining as Tennessee would have the big upper hand with two games still remaining against Houston. The Titans running game and Derrick Henry should be the difference here. In the first meeting, he accounted for 60 percent of the total offense as he ran for 114 yards, 99 in the first half, on 22 carries (5.2 ypc) and he is fresh coming off that bye. Last week, the Colts allowed 243 yards rushing on 33 carries (7.4 ypc) so the titans are catching them in a very vulnerable spot. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 revenging a loss against opponent with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 playing a team with a winning percentage between .501 and .600. This situation is 43-15 ATS (74.1 percent) since 1983. 10* (456) Tennessee Titans |
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10-22-22 | Thunder +9 v. Nuggets | Top | 117-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER for our NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. We are fading the Nuggets here after their big win at Golden St. last night which followed a season opening loss at Utah. The Nuggets are playing their first home game of the season which is obviously a big edge but this line seems short based on the fact they are playing a team expected not to do much this season and the number has already gone up from its opening making this a decent contrarian play in going against the obvious side. Jamal Murray is questionable again with a knee ailment and they are not going to rush him along as he is going to be a vital part of how far this team can go. The Thunder lost their season opener at Minnesota but covered the 11-point spread and now they are getting a shorter number against what is considered a better team which is part of the contrarian aspect. Oklahoma City caught a bad break before the season even began as No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren was lost for the season but the Thunder have a very underrated player in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as he scored 32 points while grabbing six rebounds, dishing five assists, and nabbing three steals in their opener. As a team, they shot just 38 percent from the floor but face a porous defense that has allowed 123 ppg on 49.1 percent shooting. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off an road win scoring 110 or more points, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) since 1996. 10* (569) Oklahoma City Thunder |
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10-22-22 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS ST. WILDCATS for our CFB Saturday Star Attraction. This is a great spot to play on Kansas St. and play against TCU based on scheduling from both sides. The Wildcats are 5-1 on the season including three straight Big 12 victories and the winner of this game will take over sole possession of first place in the conference and remain the lone undefeated team in the Big 12. The lone loss for Kansas St. was a shocker as it fell at home by a touchdown to Tulane as a two-touchdown favorite with a lookahead to Oklahoma likely being a main reason for not showing up. After a low start, the offense has picked it up in conference action and it is backed by a strong running game that is ranked No. 7 in rushing offense with 244.8 ypg led by Nebraska transfer quarterback Adrian Martinez who is second on the team with 546 rushing yards. Defensively, the Wildcats are ranked No. 14 in scoring defense and is solid on both levels that can slow down the TCU offense. TCU comes in with a 6-0 record including a similar 3-0 record in the conference and while this is another big game, the recent run has taken a lot out of the Horned Frogs. They took out rival SMU at the end of September, winning the yardage battle by just 11 yards then followed that up with the blowout over Oklahoma. They were then the target on College Game Day in Kansas for the first time as they escaped with a seven-point win despite getting outgained by 88 yards and then last week, it took a big comeback to defeat Oklahoma St. in double-overtime. TCU is No. 3 in the country in both total offense and scoring offense with two games skewing those numbers, the game against the Sooners and another against Tarleton St. The weakness is the defense as they are ranked No. 89 overall and No. 70 in scoring and while the passing numbers allowed are inflated because of teams needing to pass, the rushing defense is only No. 53 while allowing 4.4 ypc. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up and after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against teams allowing between 4.8 and 5.6 yppl. This situation is 42-15 ATS (73.7 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (317) Kansas St. Wildcats |
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10-22-22 | Padres -102 v. Phillies | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Padres lost home field advantage with a split in the first two games at home and now have put themselves in a bigger hole as they now face a potential must win scenario to avoid a 3-1 series deficit. San Diego has to get off to a strong start here as they have fallen behind in all three games. The Padres are hoping they get the Mike Clevinger that pitched six innings and allowed just one run in his regular-season finale against the White Sox and not the prior one who struggled for a few starts prior to that or the one that allowed four runs in 2.2 innings against the Dodgers in the NLDS. He has not pitched great on the road this season but the Padres are 9-5 in his 14 road starts. Sean Manea is the likely guy behind him which could create some good matchups. The Padres are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. The Phillies are in excellent position but facing a team with its back against the wall will be a challenge in what could be a tough pitching matchup and will again come down to the bullpens. Philadelphia improved to 50-34 at home including a perfect 3-0 in the postseason which included a pair of blowout wins over the Braves to clinch the NLDS. Bailey Falter will make his postseason debut in what will essentially become a bullpen game for the Phillies. He struggled at home this season with a 5.49 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in seven starts and this is where the Padres have to strike first. The Phillies are 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 10* (901) San Diego Padres |
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10-22-22 | Blues v. Oilers -145 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -145 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. Edmonton bounced back with a win over Carolina on Thursday following a pair of home losses against Carolina and Buffalo. The Oilers have been outshot in three of their four games which is surprising considering the fast paced offense with great puck movement that they possess. Defense has been the issue early on as the Oilers have allowed 14 goals over their last three games and the Edmonton blueline needs to settle down and avoid allowing the opposition so many quality looks as the breakout passes need to be more efficient and then defensive zone coverage needs to be better. Edmonton is 13-1 against the money line in its last 14 home games off an home win scoring four or more goals. The Blues are off to a 2-0 start but have played two games against a pair of weak opponents as they won their first game of the season last Saturday by a score of 5-2 over the Blue Jackets and they beat the Kraken in overtime on Wednesday. This is a loaded offense with scoring potential at all four lines and so far, seven different Blues have already scored a goal after having nine different forwards reach the 20-goal plateau last season. This is a game where Edmonton can get to goalie Jordan Binnington. Here, we play on home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing four goals or more going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. this situation is 163-89 (64.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (60) Edmonton Oilers |
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10-22-22 | Ole Miss v. LSU -2 | Top | 20-45 | Win | 100 | 46 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the LSU TIGERS for our SEC Game of the Year. We have seen a line flip here as Mississippi opened as a slight favorite but LSU money came in early and the Tigers are now a slight chalk and it has remained steady despite more money coming in on the Rebels. LSU rolled over Florida last week in a game that was not as close as the 10-point final deficit indicates to improve to 5-2 overall and 3-1 in the SEC and can move into a tie for first place in the SEC West with Alabama with a victory here. Two games back, the Tigers lost to Tennessee 40-13 as they were outgained by 147 yards but as we saw last week, the Volunteers are the real deal so that loss does not look as bad. They have been steady on both sides of the ball and while nothing stands out, balance is the key and they possess that on both offense and defense. The only unit ranked higher than No. 51 in the rushing defense where they are No. 69 and it is that low because of that Tennessee game. Mississippi has quietly gotten off to a 7-0 start including a 2-0 record on the road but those victories came against Georgia Tech and Vanderbilt, two of the worst offenses in their respective conferences. The offense has rolled through almost every game with the exception of games against Troy and Kentucky with the similarities being those two teams possess above average defenses and it faces another one this week. The Rebels have outgained every opponent but the caveat to that is the fact they have played the No. 70 schedule in the nation which has been the easiest of all teams in the SEC while LSU has played the No. 27 ranked slate. The number is now telling us something as the Rebels, despite being ranked No. 7 and facing an unranked team, are underdogs showing this is the toughest test thus far. While we would prefer a night game in Death Valley, a late afternoon start is just fine. Here, we play against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 averaging 34 or more ppg and after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored going up against teams allowing between 21 and 28 ppg. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (384) LSU Tigers |
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10-22-22 | Georgia Southern +3 v. Old Dominion | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA SOUTHERN EAGLES for our CFB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. Old Dominion is a team that is hard to figure out right now as it is 3-3 and leads the SBC East with a 2-0 record that includes a very impressive win at Coastal Carolina last week by 28 points as an 11.5-point underdog. The other conference win came against 2-5 Arkansas St. by just a field goal and the numbers have not been in their favor. One positive aspect is the fact the offense has improved its production every game, opening with 245 yards against Virginia Tech and capping it last week with 525 yards against the Chanticleers but that game was the first time all season that the Monarchs won the yardage battle as they are getting outgained by 95 ypg against an overall weak schedule. The issue has been the defense as Old Dominion is ranked No. 118 in total defense including No. 118 against the and No. 100 against the run and it is coming off a game where the defense was on the field for 80 snaps against Coastal Carolina and a repeat close to that would not be surprising. The Monarchs are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing. Georgia Southern is a pass first offense which cuts down its time of possession but the Eagles are No. 2 in the country in offensive snaps so keeping that Monarchs defense on the field should not be a problem. The Eagles are coming off big win over James Madison last week to improve to 4-3 and picked up their first conference win after losing their first two SBC games by a single possession. Georgia Southern in ranked No. 3 in passing offense as it has thrown for at least 359 yards in four of seven games including a massive 578 yards passing last week. The offense is led by quarterback Kyle Vantrease, a transfer from Buffalo, after throwing for 1,861 yards in split time last season and he has had immediate success in this spread attack as he has been around the block for five seasons and has a plethora of receivers to throw to that are experienced and fast. The defense has struggled but have faced some very potent offenses along the way and get their first break in a while against a pedestrian offense. The Eagles are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 450 total yards. 10* (351) Georgia Southern Eagles |
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10-22-22 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech +3 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOUISIANA TECH BULLDOGS for our CFB Saturday Enforcer. Rice is off to a surprising 3-3 start to the season with two impressive wins over Louisiana and UAB as a double-digit underdog. The Owls were blown out by USC in their opener but the other two losses against Houston and Florida Atlantic were quality defeats as both were by one possession. All of this has led to a perfect 5-0 ATS run and that is clearly played into this line as they are road favorites for only the third time since late 2015, a span of 37 games. They rolled over McNeese St. from the FCS but in In five games against FBS opponents, Rice has been outgained four times despite a defense that has been pretty solid sitting No. 45 overall but No. 81 in scoring defense and that latter ranking is due to turnovers from the offense that has affected the defensive numbers. They have needed that defense to keep things close as the Owls are No. 102 in total offense and No. 74 in scoring offense and while they are facing a poor defense, they do not have a big edge in either rushing or passing. Louisiana Tech got rolled by North Texas last week to fall to 2-4 with the other three losses coming against South Alabama, Clemson and Missouri and while the second of the Tigers here are not very good, they are still a Power Five team while South Alabama and Clemson are a combined 12-1. The Bulldogs were a disappointing 3-9 last season and new head coach Sonny Cumbie brought in a new wide open offense that has not clicked yet because they have missed out on the clutch situations to score. They have the No. 20 ranked passing offense and while they have struggled running the ball, it should open up here as Rice is ranked No. 92 in rushing defense and it has been outrushed in all five FBS games. This line is a big overreaction and while the Bulldogs are not great, they should not be underdogs here. The home team is a combined 12-0 in games involving these two teams. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are getting outscored by opponents by 7.0 or more ppg, after allowing 31 points or more in three straight games. This situation is 76-36 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (370) Louisiana Tech Bulldogs |
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10-21-22 | UAB v. Western Kentucky -2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS for our C-USA Game of the Month. It has been an up and down start for the Hilltoppers which are 4-3 following a win at Middle Tennessee St. but they have played better than the record shows. All three losses came by one possession and by an average of 4.3 ppg and they have outgained six of seven opponents, the lone exception coming against UTSA as they were outgained by only five yards. The biggest offensive turnaround in the country took place at Western Kentucky as after averaging 291.7 ypg in 2020, which was No. 121 in the country, it boosted that to 528.4 ypg last season which was second in the nation behind Ohio St. Bailey Zappe, who has turned into a household name after his stellar play in New England, orchestrated that offense and now it is transfer Austin Reed not missing a beat after winning the Division II National Championship at West Florida. He has thrown for 2,317 yards on over 70 percent completions with 21 touchdowns and five interceptions and has the No. 6 ranked passing offense in the country. The defense has been the weakness but it has not been horrible as the Hilltoppers are ranked in the top 50 in both total defense and scoring defense. UAB is 4-2 following a pair of home wins against Middle Tennessee St. and Charlotte which are nothing special and the home team is 6-0 in Blazers games this season. They have dominated the stats the last three games by an average of 193 ypg with Rice being the other team in the mix and UAB has been outgained by its two toughest opponents, Georgia Southern and Liberty. While they are sound on both sides, they are heading into a tough spot on the road and going back, the Blazers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games after gaining 450 or more yards in two straight games. Here, we play against teams where the line is +3 to -3 after allowing 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game going up against an opponent after outgaining opponent by 125 or more total yards in their previous game. this situation is 108-51 ATS (67.9 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* (314) Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
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10-21-22 | Padres v. Phillies +103 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 103 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Philadelphia was able to earn the split in San Diego and grab home field advantage and the Phillies looked to be on their way to a 2-0 series lead but blew a 4-0 lead in Game Two. The Padres have the momentum from that victory but Philadelphia is back home and it will be a crazy environment for its first NLCS home game since 2010. The Phillies are 49-34 at home and with the recent schedule, this is just their third home game since September 25, a span of 19 games and since a five-game losing streak, they are 10-4 over their last 14 games. this is an important small stretch as they enter the middle of the starting rotation after Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola went in the first two games in San Diego. Ranger Suarez will make his second start of the postseason after struggling with his command in Game One of the NLDS against the Braves, allowing a career-high five walks in just 3.1 innings but limited the damage to just one run. The Padres have been a solid road team this season with a 48-38 record including a 3-2 record in the playoffs. Following the news of the suspension of Fernando Tatis, Jr., San Diego could have folded but have definitely played some of their best baseball since late August. Joe Musgrove has been a horse all season and it has continued in the postseason as he has allowed two runs over 13 innings. He was outstanding against the Mets in the Wild Card round, and against the Dodgers in the NLDS, he allowed just two runs. He opened the season with 12 straight starts of going at least six innings and allowing two or fewer earned runs but then allowed six runs in six innings in start No. 13 which happened to come against the Phillies as he also gave up two home runs in that outing. 10* (972) Philadelphia Phillies |
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10-20-22 | Saints v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 57 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA CARDINALS for our NFL Thursday Game of the Month. Arizona is coming off a second straight loss and it was ugly as it managed only nine points against the worst defense in the NFL and it ended up being its second worst offensive performance of the season with only 315 yards. The problem throughout the season has not been production overall as the Cardinals are No. 16 in total offense but the issue has been execution as they have had to settle for field goals. After getting hammered by Kansas City in the opener, Arizona has outgained its last five opponents but third down conversions are at just 34.1 percent which is No. 28 in the NFL but it has been much better at home at 39 percent despite facing the Chiefs, Rams and Eagles. The loss of wide receiver Hollywood Brown is a tough one for an offense that has struggled enough already but the timing is not bad as DeAndre Hopkins has served his six-game suspension and will return this week. Arizona is 6-0 ATS in its last six games against teams who force one or fewer turnovers per game. New Orleans is 2-4 on the season following a home loss against Cincinnati and this has come against a schedule ranked No. 27 in the league. The two wins came against Atlanta and Seattle, both of which have overachieved thus far and the Saints are heading into a tough spot here against a desperate team at home. This is their first true road game since September 25 after a game in London and then two home games and they have to travel on a short week. Overall, New Orleans has played better than their record shows, at least on offense, as it is ranked No. 5 overall and No. 11 in scoring but it has faced four defenses ranked No. 21 or worse and this will be the second toughest defense it has faced as the Cardinals are ranked No. 12 with Tampa Bay being the strongest it has seen. The Saints have struggled defensively to keep points off the board as they are No. 29 in scoring defense. Here, we play against teams with a winning percentage between .250 and .400 after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games. This situation is 24-3 ATS (88.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (304) Arizona Cardinals |
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10-20-22 | Yankees +146 v. Astros | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Game One might be considered a pitchers duel even though their were five home runs hit but all were solo shots which equated to nearly half of the total hits. That game stayed under by a run and the total is set for the same for Game Two and while we lost with the Yankees in the opener, these totals favor the dog, especially another sizeable one on the New York side. The Yankees have lost all four meetings in Houston this season but they have been by a combined six runs so any of those could have gone either way. Jameson Taillon did a decent job on Wednesday as he went 4.1 innings which was ok for the bullpen and the final three relievers threw a combined 30 pitches so all are back in play on Thursday. Luis Severino takes the hill for his fifth start after a long summer layoff and he is back to full form with his pitch counts increasing every start. He allowed three runs or less in all four starts and most important, he has not allowed a home run after allowing 14 home runs in his first 16 outings. His last three starts have been on the road so there is a comfort coming into this one. Houston has won six straight games and even though going up against a typically public backed New York team, which is the case here with early money around 70 percent on the Yankees, this line has seen a small jump the other way. The Astros bring in ace No. 2 in Framber Valdez and after an exceptional start to the season, he has not been at his best with a 3.56 ERA over his last seven starts. His best stuff has been on the road as he has a 2.27 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 17 starts but he has a 3.54 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 14 home starts which is very respectable but not a good resume in this situation in the postseason against a team he has not pitched well against in two starts. 10* (961) New York Yankees |
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10-20-22 | Virginia v. Georgia Tech -3 | Top | 16-9 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS for our CFB Thursday Star Attraction. The coaching change at Georgia Tech was just what it needed from what we have seen so far. Geoff Collins was fired on September 26 after a loss against UCF which was the ninth straight loss against FBS opponents and Brent Key took over on an interim basis. The Yellow Jackets have responded with a pair of wins including an upset of then No. 21 Pittsburgh and then won in overtime against Duke despite dominating the yardage by 134 yards but it was closer than it should have been as Duke returned a punt 81 yards for a touchdown. Even in the 17-point loss against UCF, they won the yardage battle by 119 yards as turnovers, special teams and penalties did them in. Overall, the numbers are not great but they have edges in the right spots in this matchup namely in the running game as Georgia Tech should be able to control the line of scrimmage because Virginia cannot run the ball on offense and cannot stop the run on defense. Virginia opened the season 2-1 but those wins were against Richmond of the FCS and against Old Dominion by just two points. Since then, the Cavaliers have lost three straight games, all within the ACC and they were outgained in all of those and by a combined 301 total yards. They are 0-3 on the road and are the only winless team in the conference and while it was expected to be another down year, things are going bad all over the place. As mentioned the running game has struggled as they are No. 93 in rushing offense and No. 90 in rushing defense. The one strength has been against the pass as they are No. 43 in yards allowed but that is totally skewed based on teams not passing against Virginia because there is no reason to when possessing significant leads. A much better indication is their No. 69 ranking in passing efficiency defense and while Georgia Tech does not have a potent passing game, it can have success here especially after getting the running game going. 10* (308) Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets |