Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-27-22 | Braves -140 v. Phillies | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Getaway Game of the Month. Atlanta continues to make its move up the National League East as it is two games behind the Mets and while it was on a two-game slide, it came back with a big win on Tuesday to keep pace with New York. The Braves are 26-19 on the road and while they are not hitting great, they are averaging 4.7 rpg on the highway so they have been clutch when it counts. The pitching has been solid and the bullpen has led the way with a 2.90 ERA on the road and they face a Phillies offense that has been struggling. Charlie Morton had a bad start against the Mets prior to the All Star game but bounced back by shutting out the Angels over six innings in his last outing and he has allowed two runs or less in six of his last seven starts. The Phillies are now three games over .500 including a .500 record at home and they are running out of time in the National League East as they are nine games out of first place and have fallen three games out of the final Wild Card spot. Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in 11 of its last 15 games and is in a tough spot here to get the bats going that were on fire at one point. The Phillies send Kyle Gibson to the hill who has put together a pair of good starts over his last five but the other three have been awful and his ERA over this five-game stretch is 6.75. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with an on-base percentage of .350 or less and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with a WHIP of 1.35 or better. This situation is 233-101 (69.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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07-26-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +155 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 155 | 21 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The anticipated series between the Giants and Dodgers did not live up to the billing as San Francisco got swept in the four-game set. The Giants are now just a game over .500 and have fallen three games under .500 on the road and now sit five games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. Both hitting and pitching has taken a dive as they are No. 23 in batting average and No. 24 in batting average allowed and the former has really taken a plunge on the road where they are hitting just .231, seventh lowest in baseball. Carlos Rodon will be a very public favorite here based on the short price as well as the fact he is coming off a poor start against the Dodgers in his last game. He has been great at home with a 2.05 ERA but that rises to 3.55 on the road and that includes a poor start here earlier this month where he allowed four runs in five innings in an 8-3 loss. Arizona is six games worse than the Giants but have the same record at home as the Giants have on the road and that is where the value lies along with the home/road splits of its own starting pitching. The Diamondbacks are 10-11 over their last 21 games which is nothing good but playing against a team that is 10-17 over its last 27 games makes sense. Tyler Gilbert has been good in his six starts but the damage has come on the road where he has an 8.00 ERA compared to a 1.46 ERA at home. Here, we play on National League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .250 or less and with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.10 or better and WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 39-16 (70.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-26-22 | Rays v. Orioles +182 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 182 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. We won with Baltimore on Monday and will back them again for a lot of the same reasons. Tampa Bay has lost three straight games and is a game back for the top spot in the American League Wild card race. The Rays are now 21-26 on the road and are laying the number here based on name as well as starting pitching name, who is very good no doubt. The offense has struggled away from home as they are averaging just 4.1 rpg with a .241 batting average but the pitching has been the real problem of late even though their ace takes the hill. Shane McClanahan has been nasty and is laying a big price because of it as he has allowed two runs or less in 13 straight starts and this will be his first start in Baltimore. Prior to the Monday win, the Orioles lost two of three against the Yankees but has been solid at home with a 27-19 record and have been playing better over the long haul after a poor 6-14 start and are 21-11 over their last 32 games. The offense was on a great roll before facing Nestor Cortes on Sunday, averaging 6.9 rpg over their previous 14 games and put up five runs on Monday. Spencer Watkins has been pitching nearly as good, over a shorter period of time as he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his 12 starts. This has been a favorite underdog situation of late as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 151-151 (50 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +63.1. 10* (912) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-25-22 | Padres v. Tigers +142 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 142 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. After a split with Oakland to start the second half, the Tigers lost both games against the Twins over the weekend and have found themselves in a funk. Detroit had been on a solid run in early July but has faded down the stretch, losing 11 of their last 13 games and are 8-11 over their last 19 games and getting a good number here with no real disadvantage in the home/road splits or the pitching matchup. The Tigers are two games under .500 at home which is 14 better than their performance on the road so there is huge value in this home dog number. Drew Hutchison has a 4.38 ERA on the season but that improves to 3.95 at home and has been reliable as a starter since getting back into the rotation last season after a three-year layoff. The Padres took the first two games against Mets to open the second half but they dropped the finale on Sunday and the offense continues to bring then down as they managed only seven runs during the three-game set. They have been better on the road than at home and are favored here because of that and while many will call for a bounce back, it is not an ideal situation. Sean Manea has had a very similar season with additional starts as he has a 4.11 ERA and has struggled over the last five weeks with a 5.40 ERA over his last six starts and that is an issue with a struggling offense behind him. Here, we play against National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start. This situation is 51-31 (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (974) Detroit Tigers |
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07-25-22 | Rays v. Orioles +115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 115 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. Tampa Bay closed the weekend with a pair of losses against Kansas City and has no business being favored here again on the road and are now further back in the American League Wild card race. The Rays are now 21-25 on the road and are laying the number here based on name as well as starting pitching name. The offense has struggled away from home as they are averaging just 4.1 rpg with a .241 batting average but the pitching has been the real problem of late. Corey Kluber has been having an ok season with a 3.73 ERA but has not fared as well on the road as he has a 4.09 ERA and is coming off a poor outing in his last start against Baltimore. The Orioles lost two of three against the Yankees but has been solid at home with a 26-19 record and have been playing better over a long haul after a poor 6-14 start and are 20-11 over their last 31 games. The offense was on a great roll before facing Nestor Cortes on Sunday, averaging 6.9 rpg over their previous 14 games. Austin Voth has made five starts this season and each one has been good as he has allowed no more than three in those games and he is starting to ramp it up, going longer in each outing. He has gone longer in each game and has nearly doubled his pitch count from 41 in Game One to 76 in his last start and should climb more with the added bonus of a great bullpen behind him. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 scoring 4.4 or fewer rpg on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. This situation is 61-31 (66.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-24-22 | Astros v. Mariners +107 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our A.L. West Game of the Year. Houston ended the Seattle 15-game winning streak on Friday and backed it up with a 3-1 win on Saturday and the Astros continue their dominance of the American League West as they are now 31-16 against divisional opponents which has certainly helped their 12-game lead and counting. That being said, they have a tough matchup here as they are hitting just .239 against left-handed pitching while averaging just 4.1 rpg. Framber Valdez has been great all season as he has a 2.66 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in his 18 starts but has shown signs of bad command of late as he has walked 15 over his last five starts and Houston is just 2-2 in his last four road outings after a 3-0 start. Houston is 29-38 against the money line in its last 67 road games after having won five or six of their last seven games. Seattle went into the break with some of the best momentum a team could have and has come out flat on offense by scoring just three runs in the first two games. Julio Rodriguez missed the first two games with a sore left wrist, home run derby related most likely, but is expected to be back on Sunday. Robbie Ray gets the ball for the Mariners and after a not so great start where he posted a 4.97 ERA in his first 12 starts but has a 1.36 ERA over his last seven outings with a solid 58:10 K:BB ratio. Seattle is 12-2 against the money line in its last 14 games against teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game this season. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a team on base percentage .320 or worse on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 75-47 (61.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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07-23-22 | Twins v. Tigers +156 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Minnesota and Detroit got a late start to the second half as they get their series started on Friday. The Twins have been pretty average over the last month as they are 12-15 over their last 27 games and maintain a two-game lead over Cleveland in the American League Central. They are a game over .500 on the road and while the bats have been good away from home, the pitching has been average. Joe Ryan has been above average with a 2.90 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in six road starts but he does not warrant a favorite price like this. Detroit had been on a solid run in early July but has faded down the stretch, losing nine of their last 11 games and are 8-9 over their last 17 games and getting a good number here with no real disadvantage in the home/road splits or the pitching matchup. The Tigers are two games under .500 at home which is 14 better than their performance on the road so there is huge value in this home dog number as they are on the plus side. Michael Pineda gets the ball for the Tigers and he was pitching well with a 3.58 ERA through his first eight starts before getting roughed up in his last outing before the break against Cleveland as he allowed eight runs in two innings. That was on the road where he has a 10.22 ERA and 1.86 WHIP but at home he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. This has been a favorite underdog situation of late as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 149-145 (50.7 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +65.1. 10* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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07-23-22 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox +124 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. It is safe to say Boston is pretty embarrassed from its Friday loss and it is time for a regroup on Saturday and quickly. It has now lost seven of its last eight games and the Red Sox now 16 games behind the Yankees in the American League East so that is long gone but they are still in the Wild Card hunt as they are four games back with a lot of baseball left. Boston is now 23-21 at home and overall, the offense has been solid as they are No. 8 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 4 in batting average and look to get that going in what will be a difficult matchup. Kutter Crawford has made two starts since re-entering the rotation and has made the most of it with a 3.27 ERA over 11 starts. The Red Sox are 6-2 in their last eight home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Toronto exploded on offense in its first game after the break and while the overall total was an aberration, this is the potent offense that has been more on display after a slow start as it is No. 9 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 2 in batting average. The Blue Jays have moved three games ahead of the Red Sox after falling behind them for a short spell and have won four straight and six of their last seven. All Star Alek Manoah has been excellent this season but after a spectacular start, he has come down to earth of late, posting a 3.46 ERA over his last six starts which is still very good but not like his 1.67 ERA in his first 12 outings. Blue Jays are 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start, playing on Saturday. This situation is 70-35 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (970) Boston Red Sox |
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07-22-22 | Angels +135 v. Braves | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. The Angels are another team where the All Star break came at an opportune time as they went in with a 2-12 record over their last 14 games and will look to regroup in a difficult spot but with their ace on the hill catching a great number. Los Angeles is 17-26 on the road which is certainly not good but Shohei Ohtani is responsible for nearly a quarter of those wins where it is 4-3 in his seven road starts as he has a 2.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in those games. He has been on a run of all runs with a 0.45 ERA in his last six starts, all Angels wins. This is a great price and with a run like he is on, it cannot be overlooked and the time off can only be a benefit. The Braves are on a 14-6 run over their last 20 games and continue to keep pace in the National League East, trailing the Mets by 2.5 games heading into the weekend. Atlanta is 31-20 at home but is up just over one unit as it has been overpriced, losing a ton of games as a sizeable favorite. Charlie Morton has been up and down with a 4.45 ERA on the season including a 4.31 ERA in nine home starts as the long ball has hurt him, allowing nine in those nine games. He has had some great starts but has also allowed four runs or more in eight of his outings including his last one. Here, we play on American League road teams averaging 4.2 or fewer and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up against a National League starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. This situation is 38-16 (70.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (927) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-22-22 | Padres +164 v. Mets | Top | 4-1 | Win | 164 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. San Diego could not have asked for a better time for the All Star break as it was stuck in neutral with an 11-18 record over its last 29 games and went from a short stint in first place to now sitting 10 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres start off with a stern test in New York against the Mets and Max Scherzer but there is really good value here with an offense that could pop. Yu Darvish has a 3.41 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in his 17 starts and while his 5.25 road ERA is not good, his 1.27 WHIP is as he does not walk many and has to avoid giving up the long ball. San Diego is 16-8 against starting pitchers who strikes out five or more batters per start this season. The Mets closed on a 10-5 run before the break including a much needed 5-2 roadtrip that gave then a 2.5-game lead in the National League Easy over Atlanta. New York is in the top seven in baseball in runs scored per nice innings and batting average on both sides so being a big favorite for that makes sense but they face one of the top road teams in baseball. Scherzer has been dominant since his return to the hill with a 1.40 ERA and 0.72 WHIP in three starts but has had his struggles against the Padres. The Mets are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 hitting team .250 or worse going up against a team with a bullpen ERA of 3.75 or better, in July games. This situation is 30-22 (57.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (907) San Diego Padres |
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07-21-22 | Hamilton +8.5 v. BC | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the HAMILTON TI-CATS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Hamilton has gone from a team that was a win away from winning the Grey Cup to a team that is off to a 1-4 start but has some momentum on its side following a win over Ottawa last week. Quarterback Dane Evans completed 21 of 28 passes for 342 yards and two touchdowns and that is a big confidence boost. The Ti-Cats have not played as bad as the record shows as two losses have come by a combined seven points and they have outgained three of their five opponents. This is a big contrarian play as reading the Canadians papers shows that everyone loves the Ti-Cats to fall big but momentum is a big thing, especially against a team continuing to be overpriced. Hamilton is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams averaging 325 or more passing ypg. B.C. came back down to earth after a dominant 4-0 start as it lost to Winnipeg by 21 points two weeks ago and while it is coming off a bye week, the real Lions may have finally been exposed. Despite that, they are still being priced as the undefeated team and it is hard to be sold on a team that was so bad last season and has turned it around at the flip of a switch. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a division rival, in July games. This situation is 33-11 ATS (75 percent) since 1996. 10* (693) Hamilton Ti-Cats |
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07-21-22 | Rangers v. Marlins -114 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. Miami went into the break with three straight losses as the bats got stymied by Philadelphia as it scored just one run in the entire three-game set. This is just a one-game series from a makeup from the early cancellations and the Marlins could use it before hitting the road to face the Pirates and Reds where they can make up some ground in the Wild Card. They are currently 7.5 games out but with plenty of time left. Pablo Lopez has been solid over his last three starts with a 2.20 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and while he posted a couple poor starts prior to that, those were on the road and he brings in a 2.54 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in eight home starts. Miami is 20-8 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season. Texas got swept at home against the red hot Mariners at home in the four-game set prior to the time off and it is now 10 games under .500 overall and in worse shape in the American League Wild Card, sitting back further with more teams in front. The Rangers have admittedly been better on the road as they are three games under .500 but that is helping keep this number down. Jon Gray has put together a great run where he has allowed three runs or less in his last seven starts and that is also playing into this number where we can go contrarian. Texas is 5-24 against the money line in its last 29 road games after four or more consecutive losses. Miami falls into a simple yet effective situation where we play on home teams after getting shut out in two straight games. This situation is 109-62 (63.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (962) Miami Marlins |
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07-17-22 | Brewers +161 v. Giants | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our National League Game of the Month. Make it two late wins for San Francisco in this series. On Friday, the Giants trailed the Brewers 5-2 entering the ninth inning but a pair of solo home runs started the scoring and then Mike Yastrzemski completed the comeback with a grand slam to win. On Saturday, it was a bases loaded walk in the eighth inning that sent the winning run across. The Giants improved to 25-22 at home but are down over eight units of profit as they have been overpriced in spots and this is another one of those. The big reason is the performance of Logan Webb as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts. The Giants have been favored by more than -150 in seven times and those were against Arizona, Washington twice, Colorado twice, Kansas City and Cincinnati and the common theme is those teams are all at least six games under .500. The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Milwaukee heads into Sunday with just a one game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central and it needs to rebound from the last two games in this series. The Brewers are 29-23 on the road and showing a small net profit as they too have been overpriced in spots but are getting a huge number here. Aaron Ashby has made 11 starts for the Brewers and the majority have been solid including the last two where he has allowed three runs on nine hits over 9.1 innings and overall, the Brewers have won five of his 11 starts and this is easily the biggest underdog price over that stretch. The Brewers are 10-4 in their last 14 games following a loss. Here, we play on road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher who strikes out three or less batters per start going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 31-18 (63.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-16-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +126 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. Seattle has been red hot as it has won 12 straight games, 15 of 16 and 20 of its last 23 games to vault all the way up into the No. 2 spot in the American League Wild Card race. The offense and pitching have both been above average but neither has overly dominated as both have coincided well when the other has been a letdown. This is a contrarian play by going against the Mariners and we have laid off until now as this is a good pitching matchup as everyone sees the overall numbers and not recent. Logan Gilbert was awesome early in the season but has been leaking some oil lately with a 4.67 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over his last three starts and he has been part of that fortunate run support. Texas was playing very well but has run into a slump as it has lost 10 of its last 15 games to fall five games under .500 but has performed well from a money standpoint. The Rangers are three games under .500 at home which is nothing great but they can get it here in an undervalued spot and with a bullpen that has been really good. Spencer Howard is making just his fourth start of the season and his third since re-entering the rotation and he settled down last time out by allowing just one run in five innings against Oakland and he can build from that in his longest start since dating back to 2010. Texas is 17-9 in its 26 games against the money line as an underdog of +125 to +175 this season. This has been a favorite underdog situation of late as we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 149-141 (51.4 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +69.1. 10* (970) Texas Rangers |
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07-15-22 | Calgary +4 v. Winnipeg | Top | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. While 3 is a key point spread number in football, it does not really pertain to the CFL as much but there is still value in this number as we can give 3 to home field and Calgary is getting value over that and as of this point in the season, it has been the better of the two undefeated teams. The Stampeders are off to a 4-0 start and while the opposition has not been great, that can be said for both sides and they have been more dominant. Calgary is ranked No. 2 in total offense while ranked No. 5 in total defense and it has outscored its opponents by 14 ppg while winning the yardage battle by close to 45 ypg. Bo Levi Mitchell has been as solid as always, completing 69 percent of his passes for 1,112 yards with six touchdowns and just two picks. Calgary is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as an underdog while going 18-8 ATS in its last 26 games against the West Division. Winnipeg is 5-0 and it has not been overly impressive with the exception of the win over B.C. last time out but the Lions are not the team many think that started off. The Blue Bombers have gotten off to a slow start on offense is they are ranked No. 7, ahead of only Hamilton and Edmonton while the defense is ranked No. 6 in total defense but to their credit, they have kept the points off the board but those were against some anemic defenses. Overall, Winnipeg has been outgained by 34.8 ypg and it still gets the love based on the last two Grey Cup wins and the undefeated start. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a division rival, in July games. This situation is 47-16 ATS (74.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (683) Calgary Stampeders |
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07-15-22 | White Sox +123 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 123 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Both Chicago and Minnesota have been playing pretty mediocre of late and we are grabbing the White Sox in a contrarian spot with the more established and successful starter coming off a poor some poor outings. Chicago has fared better on the road than at home as it is four games over .500 on the highway compared to six games under .500 at home. The offense has struggled with injuries all season and they were finally back to full health before Eloy Jiminez got hurt Wednesday and was held out Thursday but could be back here. Michael Kopech as been on a rough stretch as he 6.15 ERA over his last five starts as he has allowed seven home ruins after allowing just two in his first 11 starts. Minnesota has lost four of its last six games and after jumping out to a big lead in the American League Central not that long ago, the Twins lead is down to 4.5 games over the Guardians and five games over the White Sox. They have been good at home at 26-19 but this should be more of a pickem with the pitching matchup. Devin Smeltzer opened the season with a 1.93 ERA in his first five starts but has been all over the place since, putting up a 5.67 ERA over his last six starts and while has been better at home, he cannot be trusted during this run as his limited career innings of 69.2 over three years prior to this season seem to be already catching up. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 79-51 (60.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (927) Chicago White Sox |
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07-15-22 | Phillies +146 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 146 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Both plays today are contrarian based on recency pitching bias and that is the case here for both teams in this matchup. The Phillies had a much needed day off as they were swept by Toronto in the two-game set and have lost four straight games following a 5-1 run. They are nine games behind the Mets in the National League East but the Wild Card is going to be very much in play as they are currently three games out with a lot of games left. They hope to get this offense going again as they have averaged 2.0 rpg over their last six games but are still No. 6 in baseball in runs scored per nine innings. Kyle Gibson settled down after a horrible six-game stretch as he shut out the Cardinals over seven innings but everyone will be more concerned about everything before that. Miami won the final two games against Pittsburgh to settle for a series split and it is now two games under .500 and is also in the Wild Card hunt at 5.5 games out. The line is based on the starters no doubt and Sandy Alcantara has been sensational as it the current odds on favorite to win the Cy Young but it begs the question why is this line not higher? There is still value on the Phillies though as he is coming off two starts where he allowed no runs and while he had 10 strikeouts in one of those, his K numbers have come way down and the Phillies have been a low strikeout team. Here, we play against National League teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 36-16 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (903) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-14-22 | Padres v. Rockies +123 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 123 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. We played on Colorado Wednesday and will back the Rockies again Thursday in this series finale. The Rockies have struggled on the road where they are 15-27 but have been much better at home and while the pitching has been poor at Coors Field, this is the second straight starter that has been decent here. Colorado is hitting .280 at home while averaging 5.8 rpg and have scored six runs or more 24 times at Coors Field. Overall, on the season, they are averaging 5.2 rpg while hitting .280 against left-handed pitching and can get it done here. Kyle Freeland does not have great numbers at home but that is due to his first two games of the season where he allowed 10 runs in 11 innings and take those out and his ERA drops a full run in his other seven starts. Colorado is 46-21 against the money line in home games against National League teams with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. San Diego continues to struggle on offense as it remains in a slump as it has averaged 2.9 rpg over its last 13 games and its time on top of the National League West was short-lived, one day to be exact, and it now sits 8.5 games behind the Dodgers. The Padres have been solid on the road and has a hot starter which is why they come in as a road favorite again. Blake Snell has seen limited action and is coming off his two best games in his nine overall outings as he has allowed two runs over 11 innings while striking out 23 and walking six which makes this a great contrarian spot to go against him. Here, we play against National League teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 36-16 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) Colorado Rockies |
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07-13-22 | Padres v. Rockies +152 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 152 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our N.L. West Game of the Year. The Rockies are going nowhere as they are 11 games under .500 but the damage has been done on the road where they are 15-27 and are sitting at .500 at home and catching a good number facing one of the best pitchers in the league but in what could be a great spot. Colorado is hitting .280 at home while averaging 5.8 rpg and have scored six runs or more 23 times at Coors Field. Chad Kuhl has been pretty good this season with the exceptions of a few bad outings but he has been very good at home with a 3.27 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in seven starts. Colorado is 44-21 against the money line in home games against National League teams with a slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season. San Diego continues to struggle on offense as it remains in a slump as it has averaged 2.5 rpg over its last 11 games and its time on top of the National League West was short-lived, one day to be exact, and it now sits 7.5 games behind the dodgers. The Padres have been solid on the road but have not exactly lit it up of late and while they send their best pitcher to the hill, this is not a great environment. Joe Musgrove is coming off another gem as he allowed one runs on one hit in seven innings against the Giants at home and while he has dominated the Rockies in four starts since coming to San Diego, those were all at home. San Diego is 31-51 in its last 82 games against the money line in the second half of the season against teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game. Here, we play against National League road teams averaging between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg and going up against a starter with an ERA between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 32-11 (74.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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07-12-22 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +137 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 137 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. St. Louis had lost eight of ten games including the first two games of this homestand against the Phillies as it was shoutout in both games but bounced back with a pair of wins over Philadelphia on Sunday and Monday. The Cardinals trail the Brewers by two and a half games in the National League Central and they remain home where they are 26-18. St. Louis is ranked No. 7 in runs scored per nine innings and the pitching has been flirting with the top ten as well. Matthew Liberatore will be making his seventh career start and while he has been up and down but has not allowed a run in two home starts, allowing just five hits over 10 innings. The Cardinals are 5-1 in their last six games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Dodgers were in a funk for a while and saw their lead in the National League evaporate and they actually fell into second place for a day but they have now won seven straight games and 11 of their last 12 and now have a 7.5-game lead over San Diego in the division. Los Angeles has the best record in the National League and currently is three and a half games ahead of the Mets for the Top Spot. Mitch White gets the ball in the series opener and he has been solid with a 2.93 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven starts and is coming off one of his best starts against Colorado at home and has been as effective on the road while the Dodgers have lost his last two road outings. The Dodgers are 0-4 in their last four road games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on National League underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 27-12 (69.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-11-22 | Tigers +120 v. Royals | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. We have been riding Detroit a few times recently and it has come through but Sunday was a tough loss as they could not muster anything after scoring two runs in the first inning in an extra inning defeat. While the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball overall, the bats have picked up of late, averaging 4.8 rpg over a recent 21-game stretch. Detroit has struggled on the road but has won three of its last five and while it is 11 games under .500, the Tigers are down just under two units of profit showing the value has and is still there. Alex Faedo has been average but consistent, allowing three runs or less in nine of his 11 starts and has performed well on the road with the exception of a bad start in Boston. The Tigers are 4-1 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. Kansas City took two of three against Cleveland over the weekend and it comes into Monday with a 16-26 record at home where it is averaging just 3.4 rpg while hitting only .245. The Royals have averaged only 2.8 rpg over their last four games after a solid run. The pitching has been even worse as the team ERA is 4.87 at home including a 5.14 ERA and 1.63 WHIP from the bullpen. Daniel Lynch is coming off a pair of good starts but has been bad at times since mid-May as he had a five-game run with an ERA of 8.25 over his previous five starts which includes a 9.45 ERA in three home outings. The Royals are 10-23 in their last 33 games against right-handed starters. Here, we play against favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 34-20 (63 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (919) Detroit Tigers |
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07-11-22 | Mets +108 v. Braves | Top | 4-1 | Win | 108 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. The Mets wasted an incredible effort from Taijuan Walker who tossed a three-hit effort over seven innings but he got no offense as they faced Sandy Alcantara who has been spectacular this season. Coupled with the Braves win Sunday, they are now only a game and a half ahead of Atlanta and opening this series with their horse is optimal. New York is 25-18 on the road which is the third best road record in the National League and it brings in an offense that is ranked No. 4 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 5 in batting average. Max Scherzer was awesome in his first start off the IL as he allowed just two hits and no runs while striking out 11 in six innings and tossed only 79 pitches and will be extended here. The Mets are 25-6 in their last 31 games following a loss. The Braves won in extra innings on Sunday as they swept the Nationals as they continue to ascend up the division after a poor start with their World Series hangover. Most of the recent success has come against inferior opposition which has made the pitching number skyrocket as they have allowed three runs or less in 11 of their last 13 games. Max Fried has been on a roll with a 1.35 ERA over his last four starts and he has pretty similar home and road splits but he has not gotten a ton of run support here as the offense has given him only 3.7 rpg in his 11 home outings and that should go down on Monday. The Braves are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Braves are 2-5 in their last seven games against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Here, we play on National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 68-37 (64.8 percent) since 1997. 9* (905) New York Mets |
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07-10-22 | Tigers +170 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. One of the hottest teams in baseball entering Saturday of all teams was Detroit as it had won six straight games but that winning streak came to a crashing halt early as the Tigers fell behind 6-0 after two innings and it was over at that point. While the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball overall, the bats have picked up of late, averaging 5.0 rpg over a recent 20-game stretch. Detroit has struggled on the road but has won three of its last four and while it is 10 games under .500, the tigers are down just under a unit of profit showing the value has and is still there. Drew Hutchison is making his fourth start since entering the rotation and he has been dependable with a 3.95 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Detroit is 8-2 in road games against teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more rpg this season. The White Sox got that much needed win Saturday and while momentum is on their side, it can be very short-lived and while one of their two aces takes the hill on Sunday, they are overpriced similar to Thursday as Chicago has no business laying this number. They are 7-10 over their last 17 games and are five games behind the Twins in the American League Central and are having a tough time trying to get over the .500 mark as Chicago is three games under .500 and has struggled at home, going 18-25 while losing a huge 16.2 units of profit. Michael Kopech got lit up last time out against Minnesota and over his last four starts, he has a 7.08 ERA. The White Sox are 4-10 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 147-135 (52.1 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +72.8. 10* (969) Detroit Tigers |
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07-09-22 | Marlins v. Mets -167 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our National League East Game of the Month. After a 10-0 win on Thursday, the Mets dropped Game Two on Friday as they were held to just two runs and five hits. New York is one of the top offenses in baseball as it is ranked No. 3 in runs scored per nine innings, No. 4 in batting average and No. 9 in OPS and look to bounce back on Saturday. The Mets have seen their lead shrink to 2.5 games over the Braves in the National League East and are in a good spot to at least retain that and get some momentum rolling prior a series with Atlanta starting on Monday. Carlos Carrasco bounced back from a pair of bad starts against the red hot Astros and he has been solid with the exception of a few bad starts with all of those coming against some quality teams and he has a 3.63 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in nine home starts. The Mets are 24-8 against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher while going 25-10 against the money line against division opponents this season. Miami had a six-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Angels Thursday and busted out of a mini slump where is averaged 1.8 rpg over its previous four games. The Marlins are 20-25 on the road with an offense that is hitting just .227 on the highway. Braxton Garrett will be making his seventh start of the season and he has been ok as he has posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over his first six starts. Miami is 7-27 in its last 34 games against the money line as a road underdog of +150 to +200. Here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and an ERA of 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 63-14 (81.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (904) New York Mets |
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07-08-22 | Astros v. A's +170 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND ATHLETICS as part of our MLB Friday Underdog Double Play. Houston had an eight-game winning streak snapped with a loss to the Royals on Wednesday but bounced back with a win Thursday afternoon as Justin Verlander pitched another gem in what has been an incredible season after missing almost two years. The Astros retained their huge lead in the American League West and now hit the road where they have been great with a 27-16 record thanks to stellar pitching but the bats remain below average where they are hitting .235 with a .305 OBP. Jose Urquidy has been pitching well of late, allowing only one run in each of his last three starts but he was not pitching well before that, posting a 4.99 ERA and 1.52 WHIP going in and he has a 5.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in nine road starts. Oakland won its series against Toronto after winning the first two games and dropping the third game and that was just its second home series win of the season where it has been awful with a 10-30 record, obviously the worst in baseball but the Athletics are catching a great price because of it. The bats have been listless but the pitching has kept them competitive and the bullpen has been great of late with a 1.57 ERA over the last seven games. Paul Blackburn has had a very good season with a 2.90 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 16 starts as he has allowed three runs or less in in 13 of those and two runs or less in 11 outings. Here, we play on home teams after a game where they had four or less hits, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 10 games. This situation is 107-48 (69 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Oakland Athletics |
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07-07-22 | Tigers +213 v. White Sox | Top | 2-1 | Win | 213 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Thursday Underdog Double Play. Detroit took the series against the Guardians as it swept the four-game set and it playing some good baseball. While the Tigers have one of the worst offenses in baseball overall, the bats have picked up of late, averaging 5.3 rpg over a recent 17-game stretch and they have a good chance to keep it going against another division rival that is struggling and overpriced based on pitching. Detroit has not played well on the road but is at 5-5 in its last 10 road games after getting swept at the Yankees. Beau Brieske has been up and down but has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 13 starts. Detroit is 9-4 in its last 13 games revenging five or more consecutive losses. The White Sox are coming off a dramatic 9-8 win over the Twins on Wednesday to snap a two-game slide. They are 6-8 over their last 14 games and are 5.5 games behind the Twins in the American League Central and are having a tough time trying to get over the .500 mark as Chicago is two games under .500 and has struggled at home, going 17-23. Dylan Cease is on a solid run as he has allowed one run or less in seven straight starts and this is the reason for the price. The White Sox are 4-13 home games against starting pitchers who gives up 5.5 or fewer hits per start. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 144-133 (52 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +70. 10* (923) Detroit Tigers |
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07-06-22 | Rangers -105 v. Orioles | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our American League Game of the Month. Texas has lost five of its last six games following a pair of losses to open this series against Baltimore but it has been decent on the road at 20-22 that includes 2.3 units of profit and overall, the Rangers have been right in the middle of baseball in both offense and pitching and are in a good matchup in the series finale. Texas is well out on the American League West but it has a good young nucleus that has played well after a bad start, going 31-26 after a 6-14 start. Glenn Otto got hit hard twice this season, both at home against Washington and Boston, two of the best road hitting teams in baseball and taking those out, his ERA drops from 5.63 to 3.35 and his ERA on the road this season is 3.60 in five starts. Texas is 26-19 against starting pitchers who give up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. Baltimore has won three straight games following a four-game losing streak and it too has been playing well to close out the first half of the season as it has gone 14-9 over its last 23 games. The Orioles are 38-44 overall and they send Spencer Watkins to the hill who has been on a roll since coming back from the IL as he has allowed one run in 11 innings after posting a 6.00 ERA in his first eight starts. Here, we play against American League home underdogs with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.20 to 5.70 on the season. This situation is 52-16 (76.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Texas Rangers |
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07-05-22 | Cubs +126 v. Brewers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 126 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
his is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Underdog Double Play. The Cubs had a four-game winning streak come to an end against Boston on Sunday in extra innings and then had their game in hand on Monday against the Brewers but allowed a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth inning and lost on a three-run home run in the bottom of the tenth inning. Chicago has played better on the road than at home and while still not great, it gets to face a rookie pitcher for a second time in just his sixth start. Kyle Hendricks has some below average numbers but that can be attributed to four bad outings in his 15 starts as he has allowed three runs or less 10 times. The Cubs are 15-7 against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last two seasons. Milwaukee has now won three of its last four games and has a two-game lead in the National League Central over the Cardinals. The Brewers have won three in a row at home where it is 20-15 which is good but not great and has lost money in the process. The offense has struggled here with a .237 batting average and .312 OBP and have a tough matchup here. They send Jason Alexander to the hill and he has gotten off to a solid rookie season with a 3.82 ERA but more reflective is his 1.70 WHIP as he has given up a lot of contact and walking 11 in five starts. Milwaukee is s 11-18 against the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 hitting .250 or worse going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better, in July games. This situation is 27-15 (64.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (907) Chicago Cubs |
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07-04-22 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +171 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 171 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Monday Underdog Double Play. San Francisco has lost four straight games after getting swept as home by the White Sox and they are now 8.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National Leaue West. They are two games over .500 on the road and they do not warrant to be favored by a number like this away from home especially with the offense in a tough spot. The Giants are hitting .238 on the road and have struggled of late especially with a .202 average over their last seven games. Carlos Rodon has had a great first season with the Giants as he has a 2.62 ERA and 1.09 WHIP but the Giants just are nor winning as they are 7-8 in his 15 starts including a 3-5 record on the road. The Giants are 1-5 in their last six when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Arizona lost two of three at Colorado over the weekend but has won four of its last six games following a five-game losing streak. The Diamondbacks are 19-22 at home and despite playing in what is considered a hitters park, they have been led by the pitching which is the case tonight. Madison Bumgarner has a 3.63 ERA on the season and he has been very good at home, posting a 2.98 ERA in eight starts. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last six starts with those other two being on the road and this is his fourth start against his former team and he has a 3.93 ERA in the first three meetings. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is worse than .300 and with a team slugging percentage of .390 or worse on the season. This situation is 24-10 (70.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-03-22 | Angels +200 v. Astros | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Sunday Underdog Double Play. Despite losses in the first two games of this series, Los Angeles has won eight of its last 14 games and it has the potential on offense to bust out but it has been held to only two runs thus far. The Angels are banking on Mike Trout to get back together as he has gone 0-7 with seven strikeouts in this series and as a while, Los Angeles is ranked No. 20 in runs scored per nine innings but still have a strong OPS despite getting handcuffed by Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Angels turn to Jose Suarez to try and stop the bleeding and he has been pitching well as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his eight start. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four games during Game Three of a series. Houston has won five straight, seven of eight and 13 of its last 16 games as it continues to pull away in the American League West with the closest pursuer being the Rangers which are 12.5 games back. The Astros pitching has been unreal as they have allowed one run or less in seven of their last eight games, giving up an average of 1.4 rpg over that stretch. The offense has picked it up over the last two games as it belted five home runs on Saturday after scoring two runs each in its previous two games. Framber Valdez has been at the top of the rotation but his command has been inconsistent, walking 14 over his last six starts. The Astros are 1-5 in their last six games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on American League underdogs with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 137-129 (51.5 percent) over the last five seasons and while the percentage seems low, the units are at +64.9. 10* (919) Los Angeles Angels |
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07-02-22 | Padres +136 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Saturday Underdog Double Play. After snapping a three-game losing streak on Wednesday, the Padres have dropped the first two games of this series as the offense has been handcuffed by scoring just one run in each game. The Padres are now 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West and they really could use a win and not get too far back in the standing as the All Star break looms. The Padres are 25-17 on the road which is the fourth best record in baseball behind the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros and the second best in the National League. Pitching has dominated overall and San Diego gives the ball to Yu Darvish who is having a very solid season and over his last four starts, he has a 1.61 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. The Padres are 20-7 in their last 27 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Dodgers have won three straight games after the Friday win behind another great performance from Tony Gonsolin who improved to 10-0 on the season. Los Angeles avoided a series sweep at Colorado with an 8-4 win on Wednesday to maintain its lead in the division which has now been extended. The Dodgers have been up and down over the last month as they are 15-14 over their last 29 games and they are back home where they are 22-11 but that includes a 7-7 record in their last 14 games here. Tyler Anderson had a great run of three straight starts by not allowing a run, covering 20 innings but has come back down to earth with a 4.83 ERA over his last four outings. The Dodgers are just 23-24 in their last 47 games when playing against a teams with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. Here, we play on National League road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that are hitting .250 or less going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 or better, in July games. This situation is 27-13 (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (959) San Diego Padres |
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07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan -4.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the SASKATCHEWAN ROUGHRIDERS for our CFL Game of the Week. This is the second of a home-and-home between Montreal and Saskatchewan after the Alouettes rolled over the Roughriders last week 37-13. Montreal is now 1-2 on the season and has covered all three games as it lost to Toronto by a point and Calgary by a field goal, both on the road. The win last week was deceiving however as the Alouettes outgained Saskatchewan by only five total yards as they returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown and took advantage of two interceptions by Cody Fajardo, one returned for a touchdown. Additionally, the Roughriders did not help their cause by committing 11 penalties for 106 yards. That win was the first this season by a team from the East over a team from the West and on the season, the East is 1-9 against its counterpart division. Saskatchewan opened the season with a pair of double-digit wins against Hamilton and Edmonton and while those are two of the worst teams in the league, Montreal is not that much better and the loss last week can be blamed on the intangibles more than anything. To be fair, Fajardo was not good last week as he threw for only 191 yards to go along with those two picked and had a passer rating of 51.3 after posting ratings of 110.3 and 118.6 in his first two games. The Roughriders are ranked No. 2 in overall defense and No. 1 against the run and they held Montreal to just 60 yards on the ground last week. Expect the defense to come up strong again against either Trevor Harris or Vernon Davis, Jr. Here, we play on home teams that are averaging between 385 and 420 ypg going up against teams averaging between 345 and 385 ypg, after allowing 7.6 or more yppl in their previous game. this situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (686) Saskatchewan Roughriders |
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06-30-22 | BC v. Ottawa +2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. B.C. has been the early season surprise in the CFL as it is off to a 2-0 start which is one win shy of its win total from all of last season. The Lions have destroyed both of their opponents by a combined score of 103-18 while winning the yardage battle by an average of 247 ypg but those were against two teams not expected to make much noise this season. B.C. hits the road for the first time this season and are travelling cross country on a short week and while playing another team that is not predicted to do a whole lot, the situation is not a good one. Quarterback Nathan Rourke has shredded the first two defenses he has faced as he has completed an amazing 87.8 percent of his passes while throwing seven touchdowns and no interceptions but we will see what he can do against a defense that has had plenty of time to prepare. Ottawa is off to a 0-2 start but has looked good in doing so if that makes sense. The RedBlacks have played two-time Grey Cup Champion Edmonton twice and shut down the potent Blue Bombers offense both times, allowing only 19 points in each game. They outgained Winnipeg by 152 and 82 total yards and while it is only a two-game sample, they have the No. 2 ranked defense in the CFL and while the results are opposite of B.C., it can be argued their start is just as impressive. The offense has not produced on the scoreboard but quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has thrown for 355 ypg and 9.9 ypa and will test the Lions defense for the first time this season as they have faced Nick Arbuckle and McLeod Bethel-Thompson. Overall, the RedBlacks are ranked No. 2 in total offense so it is up the unit to produce in the clutch which has been the issue. Ottawa is coming off its first bye week which adds to the situational advantage as it has not left home in 19 days. 10* (682) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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06-30-22 | Yankees v. Astros +111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 111 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS for our MLB Game of the Week. The Yankees are coming off a home sweep over Oakland following a series split against Houston and hit the road to face the Astros in a one-game series that is a makeup from the early season lockout. What can you say about New York other than it has been one of the best all around teams in recent years through this many games. They are 10-6 on the road against teams with a winning record. Luis Severino has very similar numbers to those of Garcia and the Yankees have lost four of his last six starts, accounting for 20 percent of the total New York losses on the entire season, and the two wins came against the Tigers and Cubs at home which are a combined 58-91. The Astros are coming off a two-game sweep against the Mets on the road by a combined 11-1 score and they are back home where they are 20-11. Those 31 games are 12 games fewer than what they have played on the road so the schedule has been tough yet they have flourished. Houston is 18-9 over its last 27 games and 35-16 over its last 51 games so it too has been playing at a high level since a relatively average start to the season. The Astros send Luis Garcia to the hill and he has been very consistent with a 3.68 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through 13 starts and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of those outings. Houston is 11-2 against the money line against teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more rpg this season. Here, we play against road teams batting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 over his last five starts. This situation is 63-19 (five) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Houston Astros |
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06-29-22 | White Sox +166 v. Angels | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Wednesday Underdog Double Play. The White Sox got their offense going as they exploded for 17 hits, eight for extra bases and scored 11 runs, the first time they have scored double-digit runs since June 15 and we like the momentum to carry forward in a tough pitching matchup. Chicago stopped a 1-5 run with the victory and it is now 19-17 on the road and is still hanging around in the American League Central, trailing the Twins by six games, despite a rough start after early season injuries. Michael Kopech left a game three starts ago with right knee discomfort after 13 pitches and two-thirds of an inning but he ended up being fine and has made two starts since and overall, he has a 2.59 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 13 starts. The White Sox are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams with a losing record. The Angels remain inconsistent as they are 3-5 over their last eight games and since the firing of Joe Madden, they are 9-12 and still well back in the American League West. Los Angeles belted three solo home runs on Tuesday and its 95 home runs are No. 6 in baseball which is where most of the production has come from but Kopech has allowed just four all season. Shohei Ohtani is coming off his best start of the season and has not given up a run over his last two starts while going 16 straight innings without allowing a run but is in a tough spot yet this number has been steamed after opening at -135. The Angels are 5-19 against starting pitchers who allows 0.5 or fewer home runs this season. Here, we play on road underdogs with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 after having lost five or six of their last seven games, playing a losing team. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (923) Chicago White Sox |
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06-28-22 | Padres -114 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Padres blew an early 5-2 lead against the Phillies on Sunday, allowing six unanswered runs as they dropped their final two games of their homestand. San Diego is a game and a half behind the Dodgers in the National League West and this is the start of a two-game series before the Padres head to Los Angeles for a four-game series. They are 24-14 on the road which is the second best record in baseball behind the Yankees and the best in the National League. Sean Manea has been solid with a 3.87 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with his numbers being even stronger on the road. San Diego is 7-0 in road games against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better this season. Arizona salvaged the series finale against Detroit on Sunday which snapped a five-game losing streak that includes three losses against the Padres by a combined score of 17-7. The Diamondbacks remain home where they are 18-21, one of just five teams in the National League with a losing home record. The Diamondbacks averaged just 2.2 rpg during the five-game skid and offense has been a problem all season as they are hitting only .216, the second lowest average in baseball as is their .213 average at home. Zac Gallen has been one of the bright spots in the Arizona rotation as he has a 2.92 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through 13 starts and while he had a solid start last time out against the Padres, he has lost four straight against San Diego going back to last season. Arizona is 19-65 in its last 84 games against starting pitchers who strikes out five or more batters per start. Here, we play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after three straight games where they had seven or less hits, with a bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (961) San Diego Padres |
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06-27-22 | Twins v. Guardians +118 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Revenge Game of the Month. Cleveland was able to catch Minnesota in the American League Central last week but has since lost four straight games as the offense has done nothing, averaging only 2.0 rpg over this skid. The Guardians are now two games behind the Twins and get them at home to try and close the gap and may even overtake Minnesota. Cleveland has fallen to 16-13 at home and it has the numbers that should make that record better to go along with this matchup as it is hitting .258 against right-handed pitching while posting a 3.42 ERA which is fifth best in the American League and have a solid arm going Monday. Triston McKenzie has a 3.51 ERA and 1.01 WHIP following a poor outing in his last start and while his career ERA on 4.23 in 42 starts, his 1.08 WHIP is outstanding. This season, he has a 2.76 ERA at home in three starts while having 10 road starts so the scheduling has been not in his favor and he is getting it done. The Guardians are 6-2 in their last eight games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Minnesota has won two straight and three of its last four games but it been plodding along for a while now as since a six-game winning streak was ended on May 24, the Twins are 13-17 and have seen a big lead evaporate. Minnesota is 18-16 on the road and are an overpriced favorite here with a lot of that based on Sonny Gray who is having a great season but has been trending the wrong way in his duration as he has decreased his innings pitched over his last four games and has struggled against Cleveland with a 5.40 ERA in two starts. The Twins are 2-12 in their last 14 games following a win. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 299-173 (63.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) Cleveland Guardians |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche -115 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE for our NHL Game of the Week. Tampa Bay staved off elimination with a 3-2 win on Friday to send the series back home for Game Six and while momentum is on its side, this matchup has not been even though it possesses two wins. The Lightning are 35-9-3-4 at home including a win and an overtime loss in this series and the defense has led the way, allowing 2.41 gpg overall at home but after outshooting Colorado in Game Four, they were outshot yet again Friday but got away with it. Tampa Bay is one win away from tying this series up and it has stayed in it in an unconventional way as it is tied with Colorado with 12 goals apiece at even strength as it has not been able to keep up on special teams, going just 2-18 on the power play while allowing six power play goals in 15 man down chances and that could doom them here. Colorado continues to pepper goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy as it has at least 30 shots in all five games and has done so in 12 straight playoff games, averaging 38.6 shots on goals. This has been a dynamic spot for the Avalanche as they are 30-8 on the season following five straight games where they had at least 30 shots so the game plan is simple to use their speed and forecheck to get some easy opportunities. Andrei Vasilevskiy has picked up his game after two bad games to open this series and while the word due can be overused, he could be due with all of the shots he has encountered. The Avalanche are 42-10 in their last 52 games after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites of -200 or less against the money line in the second half of the season scoring on more than 19 percent of their power play chances after five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. This situation is 53-20 (72.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (31) Colorado Avalanche |
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06-26-22 | Phillies v. Padres -148 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego had a 4-1 run snapped with a 4-2 loss on Saturday and the Padres remain one game behind the Dodgers in the National League West. They are 21-15 at home as the pitching has led the way with a 3.08 ERA that includes a 2.74 ERA from the bullpen. Overall, San Diego is No. 4 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opponent OPS. Yu Darvish has been on a great roll as he has a 0.82 ERA and 0.59 WHIP over his last three starts while lasting at least seven innings in all three games. He has been nasty at home with a 1.34 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in six starts with the Padres going 5-1 in those outings. San Diego is 13-3 against the money line in its last 16 games against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. Philadelphia moved back to two games over .500 with the Saturday victory to remain nine games behind the Mets in the National League East. The pitching has been below average and while the offense is ranked No. 9 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 10 in OPS, the Phillies took a bad blow as Bryce Harper fractured his thumb after getting hit by a pitch and could be out for a lengthy spell. Kyle Gibson has been throwing it well as he has put together three straight quality outings, putting up a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP covering 20.1 innings but two of those were at home and the one road game resulted in a 7-0 loss at Texas. He has a 3.21 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight home starts but a 5.40 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in six road starts. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg and batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75. this situation is 34-11 (75.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) San Diego Padres |
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06-25-22 | Mariners v. Angels -120 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our American League West Game of the Month. The Angels have leveled out after a 2-18 run as they have gone 7-7 over their last 14 games which is certainly nothing great but they have a good matchup here. Los Angeles is three games under .500 at home which included a 1-10 run but both dies have been much better here than its 16-18 record on the road as it is hitting .249 while the starting staff has posted a 3.12 ERA. Patrick Sandoval is having a solid season with a 2.70 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, allowing three runs or less in 10 of his 11 starts. The Angels are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the American League West. Seattle has won four straight games after the series opening win on Friday and is now six games under .500 on the season, which has been a colossal disappointment as the projected offense has been a major downer. Seattle is ranked No. 24 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 23 in batting average and has scored two runs or less in eight of its last 12 games and the Mariners 5-0 run on the road is keeping this number down. Logan Gilbert has been on a great run as he has allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts but the Mariners have gone just 4-3 in those games as the run support has been minimal, averaging 3.6 rpg. Seattle is 10-24 against the money line as an underdog of +100 to +150 this season and the Mariners are 6-16 in their last 22 games following a win. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent hitting .230 or worse over their last 20 games. This situation is 60-40 (60 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-25-22 | Toronto +5 v. BC | Top | 3-44 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO ARGONAUTS for our CFL Game of the Week. Both Toronto and B.C. are just one game into the season and while both are 1-0, the results were much different and because of this, we have seen the line climb from 3 to 4.5 and the big value is on the road team. Toronto escaped in its season opener following a bye in Week One as it defeated Montreal by a point, avoiding a loss with the Alouettes missing a field goal in the final seconds. The Argonauts were the top team in the East Division last season and hosted a playoff game but lost to Hamilton and they are coming into this season with some high expectations once again. They have failed to cover six of their last seven games going back to last season and that could also be playing a factor into this number. They have the edge of playing last week while B.C. had some momentum cut short with a week off. The Lions rolled in their season opener over the worst team in the CFL as they defeated Edmonton 59-15 thanks to a huge first half where they scored four touchdowns on four red zone trip while also adding rushing touchdowns of 36 and 21 yards. It was a very impressive victory based on final score and overall production but B.C. takes a big step up in competition here. The Lions were just 5-9 last season and did not do much to improve on the offensive side. They lost veteran Mike Reilly at quarterback who retired and while Nathan Rourke was impressive in his first starts, that was against the Elks and he will have a bigger challenge here against a defense that was average last season and made some strong upgrades. Here, we play against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points off a win over a division rival, in the first month of the season. This situation is 33-9 ATS (78.6 percent) since 1996. 10* (697) Toronto Argonauts |
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06-24-22 | Phillies v. Padres +108 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 108 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our National League Game of the Month. San Diego had a three-game winning streak snapped with a 6-2 loss on Thursday as Joe Musgrove suffered his first loss of the season after an 8-0 start. The Padres have fallen into second place in the National League West, a game behind the Dodgers and head into Game Two of this series with a 20-14 record at home. The offense has been up and down this season but the pitching remains consistent despite the Thursday result as they have a 3.14 ERA at home. MacKenkie Gore got off to a great start with a 1.50 ERA over his first nine starts but has been lit up over his last two outings, allowing 14 runs against the Rockies and we can expect a big bounce back here. The Padres are 18-6 in their last 24 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies snapped a three-game slide with the victory last night and the offense has struggled, averaging 2.6 rpg over the last four games. They are now a game over .500 on the road which is very respectable after losing 12 of 16 games that led to a manager change but are in a contrarian situation tonight. Aaron Nola is a big name pitcher who was off to an average start but has posted a 0.78 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts which is the main reason for the Phillies being road favorites on Friday. The Phillies are 5-16 in their last 21 games against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record. Here, we play against teams when the money line is +125 to -125 starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who allowed seven or more runs last outing. This situation is 26-8 (76.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (958) San Diego Padres |
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06-24-22 | Lightning +155 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-2 | Win | 155 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Friday Breakaway. A great Game Four between Colorado and Tampa Bay ended in controversy as the Avalanche won in overtime but it was proven after that they has too many men on the ice during the game winning goal. Colorado now enjoys a 3-1 series lead with two home games remaining should the Lightning extend the series to a full seven games. We all know how tough Colorado is at home as it improved to 39-6-3-2 at home after the Game Two win and has won four straight following a pair of losses against St. Louis and this is a very similar matchup. This will be the seventh meeting this season and while Colorado has won all three at home, two were by just one goal and four of the six overall meetings were decided by a single goal, three in extra time. Many expected this series to go the distance and now it is up to the Lightning to steal a game on the road and head back home to make that happen. A positive for Tampa Bay from Game Four is that it outshot Colorado for the first time in this series and it registered its most shots on goal with 39 with equaled the amount from the first two games in Colorado combined so that is something to build on. We have backed Tampa Bay numerous times this postseason and pointed out how the experience is a big factor and never more so than here. The Lightning are 91-27 in their last 118 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Here, we play on road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line after having lost three of their last four games going up against an opponent having won eight or more of their last 10 games. This situation is 37-24 (60.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (29) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-23-22 | Saskatchewan v. Montreal +4 | Top | 13-37 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the MONTREAL ALOUETTES for our CFL Thursday Enforcer. Montreal is off to a 0-2 start but both games could have gone either way. The Alouettes opened the season with a three-point loss at Calgary and followed that up with a one-point loss at Toronto last week as they missed a field goal in the last seconds of the game. They are now back in Montreal for their home opener and look to build off those first two impressive performances. Montreal outgained the Stampeders by 31 total yards and were outgained by just 19 total yards against the Argonauts and the season has started like what happened all of last season as the Alouettes lost four of their seven games by five points or less so they have been close to turning the corner. Vernon Adams, Jr. is out at quarterback but that is not a bad thing as Trevor Harris is the best backup in the league and threw for 270 yards in relief last week. The Roughriders are off to a 2-0 start , but those results are a little skewed. They opened the season against Hamilton and it was a close game until they pulled away in the fourth quarter and then last week against Edmonton, they trailed going into the final quarter and ended up with another double-digit win. The defense has carried the team thus far late in games and are at a scheduling disadvantage here. Saskatchewan heads east for the first time and has had two fewer days off than Montreal which is an issue as the shortened turnaround hurts when trying to prep for two quarterbacks as it had to early in the week. Saskatchewan is 5-15 ATS on its last 20 games after two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Here, we play against teams off a win over a division rival, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 25-5 ATS (83.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (692) Montreal Alouettes |
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06-23-22 | Astros v. Yankees -121 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The two best and hottest American League teams square off in New York for a four-game series. The Yankees had another come-from-behind win on Wednesday as they trailed Tampa Bay 4-1 going into the sixth inning and then scored four unanswered runs to take home the 5-4 victory. This team is scary good on both sides as they are ranked No. 1 in runs allowed per nine innings and No. 2 in runs scored per nine innings and while they have a tough matchup here, the price is right. Jameson Taillon has had only one poor outing this season as he brings in a 2.70 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and he has allowed two runs or less in 10 of his 13 outings. The Yankees are 17-4 against the money line against American League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.30 or better this season. Houston has won three straight games and six of its last seven and like the Yankees, it has pulled away in its division as it has a 10-game lead over Texas in the American League West. The Astros are 23-14 on the road and all of the numbers are pretty similar except for the offense which is ranked No. 17 in runs scored per nine innings. Framber Valdez is also having a sensational season with a 2.78 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 13 starts and while his numbers are even better on the road, six of his seven games have come against teams with a losing record with his worst start coming against the only winning in a loss at Toronto. The Astros are 2-6 in their last eight games as an underdog. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 297-171 (63.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) New York Yankees |
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06-22-22 | Avalanche -102 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE for our NHL Game of the Week. Coming into Game Three, Tampa Bay was 7-1 at home in the postseason, including seven straight wins, while Colorado was 7-0 on the road in the playoffs so something has to give and it was the Lightning that kept its streak alive. Colorado struck first with a goal midway through the first period but the Lightning pinned their ears back and ran off three straight goals and when the Avalanche made it a one goal game, Tampa Closed with three more unanswered goals. Tampa Bay is one win away from tying this series up and it has stayed in this series in an unconventional way as it is tied with Colorado with eight goals apiece at even strength as it has not been able to keep up on special teams, going just 1-12 on the power play while allowing five power play goals in 11 man down chances. Colorado continues to pepper goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy as it has at least 30 shots in all three games and has done so in 10 straight playoff games, averaging 38.9 shots on goals. This has been a dynamic spot for the Avalanche as they are 29-7 on the season following five straight games where they had at least 30 shots so the game plan is simple to use their speed and forecheck to get some easy opportunities. The Avalanche are now 31-15-3-0 on the road and while the away numbers are down on the highway compared to at home, this style of play is going to derail the Lightning. The Avalanche are 21-5 in their last 26 games following a loss of three or more goals. Here, we play on road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 in the second half of the season that are allowing a penalty kill of 17.5 or more and having gone five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. This situation is 57-17 (77 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (27) Colorado Avalanche |
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06-22-22 | Guardians v. Twins -145 | Top | 11-10 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our American League Central Game of the Month. Cleveland is coming off an 11-inning win over Minnesota on Tuesday and the Guardians has made it move in the American League Central. They have won two straight, seven of their last eight, 10 of their last 12 and 16 of their last 20. Cleveland now sits in first place in the division, percentage points ahead of the Twins and can take over sole possession for the first time since April 23 when it has a half-game lead over Minnesota. The Guardians are ranked in the top eight in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS and send Triston McKenzie to the mound and he is having a solid season with a 2.96 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 11 starts and one relief outing. His numbers are equally as good on the road but Cleveland is just 4-4 in his eight road starts. Minnesota has lost two straight and has been below average over the last month as it has gone 11-15 over its last 26 games. The Twins are still 20-15 at home where they are hitting .253 while posting a 3.66 ERA and while they have been plodding along, they have avoided big losing streaks which has kept them afloat and the Twins are 7-1 in their last eight games following a loss. The rotation has been led by an unlikely starter who is making a resurgence as Sonny Gray is off to one of the best starts in his career as he has made only eight starts after an early stint on the IL and he has a 2.09 ERA and 0.93 WHIP and he has allowed two runs or less in every start. Over his last three outings, he has a 0.50 ERA and 0.56 WHIP while posting a 17:1 K:BB ratio. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 297-171 (63.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Minnesota Twins |
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06-21-22 | Nationals v. Orioles -135 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Washington snapped an eight-game winning streak with a home win over the Phillies on Sunday. That concluded an 11-game homestand for the rebuilding Nationals as they hit the road where they are 6-15 over their last 21 away games where they are 12-20 overall. Washington has the worst pitching in baseball and it is ranked No. 30 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS while having a 5.98 ERA in its 32 road games. Erick Fedde has been part of the problem as he has a 4.71 ERA in six road starts. He has hit six innings only twice in 13 overall starts and that is bad news for a bullpen that has a 6.18 ERA on the highway. Baltimore is another team that is playing well as it has gone 6-3 over its last nine games following a series win over Tampa Bay to open this short five-game homestand. The Orioles are a game over .500 at home compared to having a 13-22 record on the road and one big factor has been the bullpen where they 2.34 ERA, one of the best in baseball. Jordan Lyles has been below average this season with a 5.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 13 starts but his damage has come away from home as his home/road splits are some of the biggest. He has a 6.70 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in eight road starts compared to a 2.93 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in five home starts to go along with a 26:8 K:BB ratio. Here, we play om American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season after allowing two runs or less. This situation is 114-73 (61 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (926) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-20-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning -105 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 34 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Monday Breakaway. We lost with Tampa Bay in Game Two as it forgot to show up and now faces a must win game at home on Monday to avoid a 3-0 series deficit. The Lightning could not handle the speed and forecheck of the Avalanche in Game Two as they turned it over constantly which led to open space and too many shot opportunities for Colorado. It was the second straight game Tampa Bay allowed three first period goals and while it was able to come back to tie it up in Game One, it was unable to do so on Saturday. The turnovers in Game Two killed the offense as the Lightning managed only 17 shots and led to 30 shots for Colorado which was down from the 38 shots in Game One. Tampa Bay is 34-9-2-4 at home this season including a 7-1 record in the playoffs where it is riding a seven-game winning streak. The Lightning are 18-2 against the money line in its last 20 home games revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals. Colorado has shown its speed and athleticism can even take down one of the top defensive teams but carrying that over into Game Three on the road can be a challenge against a desperate team that was in this same spot in the last series. The Avalanche are 31-14-3-0 on the road which is solid but they are not nearly as effective on away ice as they are at home. This will be their toughest test of the postseason thus far and they do fall short. Here, we play on home Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing three goals or more in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in four straight games. This situation is 40-12 (76.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (26) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-19-22 | Padres -130 v. Rockies | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Padres have dropped the first two games of this series following a Saturday loss where they allowed the winning home run in the bottom of the eighth inning. The Padres have won 11 of 16 games and are off to the best start in franchise history and while the nine-year drought of being in first place this late in a season was short-lived, they are just a half-game behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The pitching has been solid as it is ranked No. 4 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS. Blake Snell has allowed three runs or less in four of five starts and will be looking for his first win. San Diego is 15-5 against the money line in its last 20 road games when playing against a team with a losing record. Colorado was on a three-game slide but the offense has come alive with 15 runs scored in the two games after averaging 3.1 rpg in its previous 10 games. The Rockies are eight games under .500 overall and are 1-7 in their last eight games following consecutive wins with the offense averaging just 2.8 rpg in those seven losses. Pitching has been the biggest downfall as Colorado is ranked No. 29 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS and Antonio Senzatela has played a part with his 4.79 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. The Rockies are 11-27 in their last 38 games as an underdog. Here, we play on National League road teams hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against a team with a bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse. This situation is 94-49 (65.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (911) San Diego Padres |
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06-18-22 | Saskatchewan v. Edmonton Elks +8 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON ELKS for our CFL Game of the Week. Saskatchewan opened the season with a 30-13 win over Hamilton but it was not overly dominant as it outrushed the Ti-Cats by just 49 yards and outpassed them by just 41 yards. The Roughriders benefitted from five Hamilton turnovers and the ones that happened late decided the game as Saskatchewan was up by just a score of 15-13 with less than four minutes left and scored 15 unanswered points over that final stretch. Hamilton also hurt itself by getting in tough situations as on 17 occasions, it faced a second and long and those catch up quickly. Sure, the Roughriders defense can be given some credit on those first down stops but overall, it was a clearly misleading final score as Saskatchewan in now overvalued hitting the road for the first time. The Roughriders are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with a losing record. Edmonton is coming off an awful opening game against B.C. as it lost 59-15 but was outgained by a more respectable 153 total yards which is by no means good, but that does not correlate to the final score. Quarterback Nate Arbuckle was 20-29 for 254 yards but tossed three interceptions and falling behind 42-6 at halftime was an insurmountable deficit. The Elks are coming off a 3-11 season and not much is expected this year as they are +2,500 to win the Grey Cup, easily the longest odds in the league but there are improvements even though they were not fully on display in the first game. The Elks are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (688) Edmonton Elks |
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06-18-22 | Lightning +141 v. Avalanche | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Non-Conference Game of the Year. Tampa Bay nearly pulled off the comeback in Game One as it fell behind 3-1 after the first period but shutout the Avalanche the rest of the way in regulation but lost in overtime on a goal within the first two minutes. It was a tough loss for the Lightning but this has been a very lucrative spot during the Stanley Cup run. In Game Two of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Lightning came off their first loss following a loss in the postseason in three years after winning 16 straight games in that situation but bounced back with a win in Game Three and are now 17-1 in the postseason over the last three seasons following a loss. Tampa Bay is 29-19-2-1 on the road including a 5-5 record in the playoffs that includes three losses by one goal. Tampa Bay is 30-9 against the money line in its last 39 games revenging a loss where opponent scored four or more goals. Colorado had nine days off prior to the Stanley Cup opener and there was no rust as it scored three first period goals but slowed down considerably despite outshooting the Lightning 22-14 over the final two periods. The Avalanche improved to 38-6-3-2 at home and have won three straight following a pair of losses against St. Louis and this is a very similar matchup as this was the third meeting this season, all won by Colorado, but all were won by one goal, two coming in extra time. Colorado is 68-83 against the money line in its last 151 games after two straight games where both teams scored three goals or more. Here, we play against teams against the money line after winning six or more consecutive games, playing three or less games in 10 days. This situation is 67-44 (60.4 percent) since 1996. 10* (23) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-18-22 | Braves -160 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. The Braves had their 14-game winning streak snapped with a 1-0 loss on Friday afternoon. The Atlanta offense was held in check for the first time during this stretch as it had not scored fewer than three runs while averaging 7.2 rpg in those 14 games. The Braves got off to a slow start this season but has narrowed the gap to 5.5 games behind the Mets in the National League East with a great chance to start another streak over the weekend before hosting the Giants and Dodgers next week. Kyle Wright looks to keep the solid string of pitching going and he brings in a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP including a 2.13 ERA over his last six outings. Atlanta is 34-11 against the money line in its last 35 games as a road favorite of -125 or more. Chicago snapped a 10-game losing streak with the victory but the lethargic offense still managed only one run and the Cubs are averaging a mere 2.8 rpg over their last 11 games. Chicago is 12-24 at home which is the third worst home record in baseball behind Washington and Oakland and while the offense has had little success, the pitching has been just as bad with the exception of a solid effort from Keegan Thompson yesterday as the cubs allowed 9.0 rpg during the losing skid. Justin Steele has been solid of late but he catches the wrong offense at the wrong time. The Cubs are 1-10 against the money line in their last 11 home games against a National League starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. Here, we play on National League road teams hitting .255 or worse and with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against teams with a bullpen ERA of 4.50 or worse. This situation is 94-47 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (951) Atlanta Braves |
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06-17-22 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa +4.5 | Top | 19-12 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. This is the second of a home-and-home between Winnipeg and Ottawa with the Blue Bombers escaping with a 19-17 win and it should have not been that close, going the other way. The RedBlacks outgained Winnipeg 441-289 but had some costly penalties and were forced into three field goals and a single as they could not execute deep when needed while ending the first half at the Winnipeg 22-yard line with timeouts remaining but inexplicably let the time run out. Jeremiah Masoli had a big game in his first start for Ottawa as he was 24-34 for 380 yards with a touchdown and an interception and despite losing, Ottawa has to be encouraged in its season opener. The game was decided by a Winnipeg field goal with six seconds left which left the RedBlacks despondent but an early revenge spot at home will have them ready. The RedBlacks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in June. Winnipeg should be better but this is clearly a bad matchup and a big factor here is the line. The Blue Bombers closed as a 6.5-point favorite at home and now they are favored by just a couple points less on the road which is not the typical line swing based on home field. The fact Winnipeg won is the one thing that the common bettor will look at and not take advantage of digging deeper into the game to see exactly what transpired. The Blue Bombers are the team with the bulls-eye on its back and they continue to be overvalued going back to last season as they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Here, we play against favorites after one or more consecutive straight up wins, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season. This situation is 30-9 ATS (76.9 percent) since 1996. 10* (684) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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06-17-22 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +104 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Yankees keep rolling along as they have won seven straight games to increase their lead to 10 games over Toronto and 12 games over Tampa Bay following the three-game sweep of the Rays. New York improved to 29-7 at home where it has played nine more games than on the road and while it is nine-games over .500 on the highway, the numbers drop. Pitching has led the way as the Yankees are ranked No. 1 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opponent OPS. Jordan Mongomery has been very good with a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP but New York is just 6-6 in his 12 starts, accounting for over a third of its losses on the season. Toronto is coming off a disappointing split with the Orioles culminated by a 10-2 loss on Thursday as Kevin Gausman got lit up in his worst outing of the season. The Blue Jays are 20-12 at home which is third best record at home in all of baseball so they have an opportunity and this is a big series for Toronto as it can cut into this lead and needs to avoid falling back further in the standings and at the very least, stay in first place in the current Wild Card standings. Ross Stripling is off to a solid start as he has a 3.14 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 15 games which includes a 2.81 ERA in seven starts. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 297-169 (63.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Toronto Blue Jays |
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06-16-22 | Angels -115 v. Mariners | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The managerial change for Los Angeles has not done much as it is 2-5 in the seven games since Joe Maddon was fired but to their credit, the recent schedule has been very tough. During their 2-18 run, they have played just two teams with a losing record and that was just one game against the Rangers and three against the Phillies when they got hot after Joe Girardi got let go as the other 16 games have come against the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Dodgers. The offense has dipped while the pitching has remained steady and one of those parts has been Shohei Ohtani. He has a 3.64 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the season and over his last eight starts, he has allowed two runs or less in six of those and the two outliers came against the Yankees and Blue Jays. Seattle dropped its series with the Twins after getting shutout 5-0 on Wednesday which was its second series loss on this homestand that concludes with a five-game series against the Angels. The Mariners are a game over .500 at home but have struggled on both sides, especially the starting pitching that has posted a 4.75 ERA and a bullpen that has a 4.44 ERA. The Angels bats have cooled down considerably but the pitching they have faced has been off the charts and can definitely get to George Kirby who has been inconsistent in his seven starts and he has allowed seven home runs in his last five outings. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a winning percentage between .460 and .499 after having lost six or seven of their last eight games, playing a team with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. this situation is 29-7 (80.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (965) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -115 | 58 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Thursday Enforcer. Game Five continued the common theme of the series as a close game was opened up by a big, late run as Golden St. opened the fourth quarter on a 10-0 run and Boston could not recover. Going in, if you said Steph Curry would have 16 points and not make a single three-pointer, then Boston would be back home with a series advantage but Andrew Wiggins stepped up and gives the Warriors a shot on Thursday for their fourth NBA Title in the last eight years. Golden St. is just 4-5 on the road in the postseason, one win coming here in Game Four where Curry went off and obviously Boston has to contain him again to force a Game Seven. The other big difference was Golden St. committed only six turnovers compared to 18 for Boston. The Warriors are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Boston is coming off consecutive losses in the postseason for the first time and it will haver to avoid its first three-game losing streak since dropping three in a row from December 25-December 29. The Celtics have gone 4-0 since then following consecutive losses and are 16-3 over their last 19 games following a loss, covering 15 of those against the number. Boston returns home where honestly it has not been great in the playoffs with a 6-5 record but the positive energy here in a must win game needs to be taken advantage of. Jayson Tatum did his best, scoring 27 points and grabbing 10 rebounds while going 5-9 from long range, but the rest of the team combined to go just 6-23 (26.1 percent). Boston is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games off a road loss by 10 points or more. Here, we play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. this situation is 67-28 ATS (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (528) Boston Celtics |
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06-15-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche -156 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 80 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO AVALANCHE for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. Tampa Bay rallied from a 2-0 series deficit to win four straight games and eliminated the Rangers to make it to its third straight Stanley Cup final after winning the last two. The Lightning have ridden the outstanding play of goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy as over the last four games, he allowed only five goals with a .955 save percentage but more impressive is that only one of those was at even strength where he made 100 saves on 101 shots for a .990 save percentage. He will be facing a whole different animal now however and this total defense will be put to the test. Tampa Bay is 4-10 in its last 14 games against the money line after having won eight or more of their last 10 games. Colorado has rolled into the finals as it went 12-1-1 in its first 14 playoff games and while it will be nine days between games, that will not hurt the Avalanche as the rest will only benefit this high flying offense. In the four-game sweep over Edmonton, Colorado tallied 47, 40, 43 and 42 shots and that is hard to overcome as the Avalanche averaged 5.5 gpg in the series. St. Louis was the only team to keep the offense somewhat in check as it allowed 3.7 gpg to Colorado on 37 shots per game but that has been right around the season average. The Avalanche are averaging 4.15 gpg at home, the same average as during the regular season which was No. 2 in the league. Colorado is 13-2 against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .600 and .750 this season. Here, we play road underdogs of +100 to +150 against the money line after allowing one goal or less in two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three goals or more in two straight games. This situation is 123-54 (69.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (12) Colorado Avalanche |
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06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees -131 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB American League East Game of the Month. This is a big early season series in the American League East and while Tampa Bay is 10 games back, they can cut into the lead but are already off a loss. The Rays are a game over .500 on the road and while the pitching has been good, the offense has struggled with a .233 average while averaging only 4.5 runs per nine innings. Shane McClanahan has flown under the radar with a 1.87 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in 12 starts and Tampa Bay has won his last seven starts which is keeping this number down and while he pitched well in a 4-2 win last month against New York, that was at home where his last five starts have taken place and nine of 12 overall. The Rays are 3-7 in their last 10 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. New York is 27-7 at home and has easily gained control of the entire American League with a 45-16 record. While the offense is scary from pretty much top to bottom, the pitching has really dominated as the Yankees are ranked No. 1 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opposing OPS. Nestor Cortes was humming along with a 1.50 ERA and 0.87 WHIP through his first 12 starts but is coming off his worst start of the season as he allowed four runs, including a pair of home runs, on seven hits in just 4.1 innings. He dominated Tampa Bay last month in an eight inning gem. The Yankees are 17-5 in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 63-22 (74.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) New York Yankees |
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06-14-22 | Guardians v. Rockies +152 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Interleague Game of the Month. The Rockies are back home following a successful 4-3 roadtrip in San Francisco and San Diego and they bring in a 16-16 record at Coors Field. Colorado is seven games under .500 no thanks to its horrible 11-18 record on the road and heading back home, they average 5.8 rpg while hitting .271 which overall is the best home production in baseball. Antonio Senzatela takes the hill for the Rockies and while he has struggled throughout the season, he has actually pitched better at home with a 3.76 ERA compared to a 6.75 ERA on the road. Colorado is 17-7 against the money line in its last 24 home games after allowing two runs or less. Cleveland is playing its best baseball of the season as it has won 10 of its last 13 games and is now two games over .500 on the season. The Guardians trail the Twins by three games in the American League Central thanks to strong offense and pitching but they have not been nearly as good on the road as they are four games under .500. the numbers go down considerably on the highway and while the offense could get a Coor Field boost here, the pitching could be in trouble despite the ace taking the hill. Shane Bieber has been excellent this season with a 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and while he has been even more solid on the road, that is negated with him pitching at Coors Field. The Guardians are 5-17 in their last 22 games against National League West teams. Here, we play on National League home underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.65 or worse on the season and who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 28-10 (73.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (978) Colorado Rockies |
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06-13-22 | Padres v. Cubs +125 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Cubs have to be happy to return home following a three-game sweep at the Yankees, getting outscored 28-5 in the process, which was their sixth straight loss and dropping them to 23-36 on the season. Home has not been kind to Chicago as it is 11-20 at Wrigley Field this season which is surprising considering it is actually outscoring opponents here with part of the reason going 4-8 in one-run games and a lot of the wins coming by huge amounts. The offense has been a little above average which obviously was not on display in New York but the Cubs are averaging 4.8 runs per nine innings at home which includes 5.1 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching. Yu Darvish has been adequate but the success has come at pitcher-friendly Petco Park as he has a 5.82 ERA in six road starts. San Diego was on a 7-1 run prior to losing the final two games at home against the Rockies and it was unable to take advantage of the Dodgers getting swept against the Giants and a chance to take over first place in the National League West. The Padres are 20-11 on the road and while the pitching has led the way, this is not the matchup for that to continue. The offense has been a big disappointment as they are ranked No. 16 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 22 in batting average. They will face Justin Steele whose overall numbers are bad but the road has been the problem and he brings in a 3.69 ERA in seven home starts while allowing only one home run in those games. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.05 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 5.20. this situation is 60-29 (67.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (908) Chicago Cubs |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Game of the Year. Steph Curry saved the day for the Warriors as he poured in 43 points to go along with 10 rebounds and four assists and it will likely take another effort like that here for the Warriors to take their first series lead. After four games, we are seeing Golden St. as fortunate to be tied in this series as Draymond Green has struggled with matchup disadvantages and Klay Thompson is a step or two slower and is not close to the same defender he was because of his past injuries. The Warriors are favored at home again thanks to their solid playoff record at home as they are 10-1 but the lone loss did come against Boston in what is turning into their toughest matchup in the postseason so far. The Warriors are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. All four games of this series have been decided by double-digits and we are so overdue for a competitive game late as it was once again a blowout in the fourth quarter in Game Four that was the deciding factor. That favors the underdog obviously which gives us two outs here with the better team as the Celtics cane win outright or lose a close one. While the Warriors home record is outstanding, the Celtics are a very solid 8-3 on the road in the playoffs while going a mediocre 6-5 at home. The one common theme in this series as the team that won the points in the paint battle went on to win the game and Boston is coming off a Game four where it was just 19-47 from two-point range which directly affects the paint numbers and we should see the Celtics have a much better effort down low. The Celtics are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Boston is 10-2 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season and that includes a 16-point win at home following a loss in Game Two. Here, we play on road teams revenging a same season loss against opponent off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog. This situation is 59-28 ATS (67.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (525) Boston Celtics |
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06-12-22 | Dodgers -125 v. Giants | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Dodgers came into Saturday with the possibility of falling out of first place in the National League West as they have been down of late with a 4-8 record over their last 12 games with the Padres right on their heels. They will be out to avoid the sweep as the offense, which is the best in baseball in runs scored per nine innings, has been handcuffed in the first two games by scoring just four runs total. The Dodgers send Julio Urias to the hill and he has been very strong with a 2.78 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 11 starts and this has been a great situation for him and the Dodgers which are 17-3 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175. San Francisco is hanging around in the division as well as the first two wins in this series has pulled it to within 4.5 games of Los Angeles. The Giants have used a strong offense to hang around as they are ranked No. 3 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 9 in OPS but have a tough matchup here. On the other side, the matchup could be even more tough as the pitching has been well below average as they are No. 20 in runs allowed per nine innings and No. 25 in batting average allowed. Carlos Rodon has been good but not great with a 3.51 ERA and has allowed four home runs in his last five games. The Giants are 3-9 in their last 12 games as an underdog. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 or more with an on-base percentage of .350 or worse and with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 or better. This situation is 225-97 (69.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (959) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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06-11-22 | Mets v. Angels +122 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 122 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Interleague Game of the Week. The Angels snapped their 14-game losing streak with a win over the Red Sox on Thursday but it was short-lived as they opened their series against the Mets with a 7-3 loss on Friday. The longer run of 4-19 over its last 23 games has put Los Angeles nine games behind the Astros in the American League West with a big hill to climb. Friday was the seventh time over the last 11 games that it has scored three runs or less and that once potent offense has fallen to No. 16 in both runs scored per nine innings and batting average and No. 14 in OPS. Michael Lorenzen is coming off one of his worst outings as he allowed five runs in 5.2 innings while walking a season-high five batters but he has allowed three runs or less in six of his nine starts. The Angels are 5-2 in their last seven Interleague home games. The Mets snapped a two-game slide with the win and are now 4-4 on this current roadtrip. The average New York run has led to the lead dwindle in the National League East as it is 6.5 games in front of the Braves which have won nine straight games. The offense remains one of the best as they are ranked No. 2 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 1 in batting average so it will be another test for the Angels. Carlos Carrasco has been a great addition to this starting staff and he is coming off arguably his best start of the season, allowing two runs in seven innings while striking out 10 and walking none. The Mets are 4-9 in their last 13 Interleague road games. Here, we play on American League teams with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season, and coming off an outing where he walked five or more hitters. This situation is 30-10 (75 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (932) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-11-22 | Rangers +163 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 10 m | Show |
06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Friday Enforcer. Boston gained control of the Finals with a 116-100 win on Wednesday to give it a 2-1 lead in the series and can put Golden St. in a world of hurt with a Game Four victory. The Big Three for the Celtics came up big in Game Three as Jaylen Brown led all scorers with 27 points while Jayson Tatum added 26 points and Marcus Smart chipped in 24 points. The third quarter has been the downfall of the Celtics as they have been outscored 106-63 in the first three games coming out of halftime. They have dominated other nine quarters in total with a 261-219 advantage but have not completely dominated individually as six of those quarter were decided by six points or less, split between the two teams. Boston is 6-14 ATS in home games after a win by 10 points or more this season. Golden St. rallied to within four points at the end of the third quarter in Game Three but the Warriors managed only 11 points in the fourth quarter, the second time in this series they were crushed in the final quarter and that has been the difference just like how Boston has been dominated in the third quarter. Golden St. is 3-5 on the road in the postseason but three of those losses came right after a win on the highway and the Wednesday loss was the first one in the first of back-to-back road games. The Warriors are in a great spot as they have been perfect in the postseason following a loss, going 5-0 after a defeat, winning those games by an average of 15.4 ppg. Golden St. is 20-6 ATS revenging a road loss this season while going 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. 10* (523) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-10-22 | Ottawa +10 v. Winnipeg | Top | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 81 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the OTTAWA REDBLACKS for our CFL Friday Enforcer. Winnipeg is coming off its second straight Grey Cup as it defeated Hamilton last December in overtime, coming back from a 20-10 fourth quarter deficit. The pieces are in place for another run but there has been some turnover in key areas that could take some time early in the season for this team to display its full potential. The Blue Bombers were the class of the West Division last year with an 11-3 record but the division is better and this line is based on the results from last season. Quarterback Zach Collaros had a solid season with Winnipeg last year and carried the Blue Bombers to their second straight Grey Cup but he has lost several key weapons on offense that includes running back Andrew Harris and league-leading wide receiver Kenny Lawler. They led the league in scoring and were by far the best defense in the league but with that repeat championship comes high expectations and every opponent will be out for the upset. Ottawa is the first one on the schedule and the RedBlacks have gone through an overhaul following a disappointing 3-11 record in 2021. The front office has changed and with that came numerous roster changes and many for the good as this is not really considered a rebuild but a retooling that looks much better on paper. Ottawa signed quarterback Jeremiah Masoli in free agency and he is a proven commodity and the RedBlacks also brought back running back William Powell who rushed for 2,389 yards in 2017-2018 before a couple solid years in Saskatchewan. The defense is a concern but holes were filled there too and this could easily be a team on the rise. 10* (693) Ottawa RedBlacks |
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06-10-22 | Rays v. Twins +102 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 102 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our American League Game of the Month. Minnesota is thankful the Yankees have finally left town as the Twins lost two of three, allowing 7.3 rpg in the series and last night they gave up 10 runs in a 10-7 loss despite the offense lighting up Gerit Cole for five home runs. The opponent does not get much easier this weekend but they will be facing an offense not even close to the same firepower. Minnesota has lost six of its last nine games and has seen its lead in the American League Central shrink to three games over the Cleveland Guardians. The Twins have improved on offense, averaging 6.5 rpg over their last six games and overall, they are No. 5 in baseball with a .251 average. Minnesota is 18-13 at home with the pitching leading the way with a 3.54 ERA despite a couple of recent hiccups. The Twins are 9-3 in their last 12 games following a loss. Tampa Bay is coming off a sweep over St. Louis which came after a series loss against the White Sox and it hits the road where it has yet to be tested. The Rays do have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball as they are ranked No. 5 in runs allowed per nine innings, batting average allowed and opponent OPS. The offense has been the issue as Tampa Bay is No. 21 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 24 in both batting average and OPS and its numbers drop on the road where it is 13-10 with all 13 of those wins coming against teams with a losing record. The Rays are 2-5 in their last seven games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against road teams hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 58-17 (77.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (972) Minnesota Twins |
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06-09-22 | Red Sox v. Angels -114 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a play on LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This has been one of the biggest contender tailspins we have seen in quite some time as the Angels have lost 14 straight games and are on a longer-term 3-18 run which has knocked them from first place in the American League West to now 9.5 games behind the Astros. Last night was the second 1-0 loss in three days for Los Angeles sixth time over the last nine games that it has scored one run or less and that once potent offense has fallen to No. 16 in runs scored per nine innings and No. 17 in batting average. Shohei Ohtani is coming off a pair of poor outings and will look to shut down the Red Sox whose own offense has not been great and he brings in a 3.74 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in four home starts. The Angels are 7-2 in their last nine games after losing the first three games of a series. Boston has won seven straight games and its pitching has led the way as it has allowed two runs or less in seven of its last eight games. The Red Sox are now three games over .500 and four games over .500 on the road and clearly has the momentum as they turn to Nick Pivetta who has been one of the top starters over the past month, posting a 1.32 ERA over his last six starts with Boston winning the last five. He has benefitted from the offense behind him that has averaged 9.6 rpg over those five games which has taken a lot of the pressure off. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer runs per game on the season going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 61-22 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (918) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-09-22 | Montreal v. Calgary -3 | Top | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 58 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY STAMPEDERS for our CFL Non-Division Game of the Month. The CFL season gets underway Thursday and this will be the first normal season in three years as COVID cancelled 2020 and minimized the schedule in 2021. Calgary plays host to the first game in Week One and while the Stampeders have made the playoffs 16 years in a row, it has been a mediocre last couple years. Last season, Calgary lost to Saskatchewan in the opening round of the playoffs in overtime which resulted in an overall record of 8-7 and things should be better this season. The main reason for the average 2021 campaign was the play of quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell who played through the season with shoulder injuries and managed only 10 touchdowns after averaging over 27 touchdowns in his previous four seasons and had a career low 83 quarterback rating. The good news is that he is fully healthy and has most of his weapons back including running back Ka'Deem Carey, wide receiver Reggie Begelton, and slot back Kamar Jorden. Calgary went just 3-4 at home last season but that changes this year beginning right out of the gate. Montreal went 7-7 during the regular season before losing to Hamilton in the playoffs and the Alouettes are in position to make another playoff run but catch a tough opener. Vernon Adams is back as the starting quarterback after going down with a season ending injury in October and he can be dangerous but faces a tough defense that finished third in the league in points allowed last season at 18.8 ppg. Montreal was just 2-4 against the West Division and will be tested right away against a team that is ready to make it back to the elite status in the CFL. 10* (692) Calgary Stampeders |
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06-09-22 | Lightning -130 v. Rangers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. The Rangers had Tampa Bay on the ropes as they led Game Three 2-0 in the second period but allowed three unanswered goals and then lost 4-1 in Game Four as the momentum has now completely shifted in this series. This will be considered a great bounce back spot for New York by some but the confidence of the team is shook and even though it is back home with home ice remaining but this is not a good spot. New York is 34-10-2-3 at home which is outstanding but faces a top road scoring offense that has averaged nearly four gpg in their last eight road games. The Rangers are 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog. It was a very efficient Game Four for the Lightning as they only had 31 shots on goal and went 0-3 on the power play but still managed three goals against Igor Shesterkin and have now outscored New York 7-1 over the last four and a half periods. Tampa Bay has shown how its playoff experience can take over as staring at the brink of a 3-0 series deficit did not affect them at all. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy has gotten stronger as the series has gone along by decreasing the goals allowed and increasing his save percentage in each game. The Lightning have allowed 31.8 shots per game which is right around their series average on the road and they are 36-15 in their last 51 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. Here, we play on road favorites of -200 or less against the money line in the second half of the season averaging three or more gpg on the season, after allowing two goals or less in two straight games. This situation is 79-42 (65.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (49) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 53 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Game of the Week. Golden St. got back into the series and avoided a 2-0 Finals deficit and while it lost home court advantage, it has new life. That being said, the Warriors are in a tough spot and not because of travel since both teams are doing the same thing, but because of being on the road against an elite defensive team looking for payback. The Warriors led by two points at halftime but outscored Boston by 21 points in the third quarter as the defense allowed only 14 points which put the game away. Golden St. is just 25-23 on the road and while going 10-1 at home in the postseason, the Warriors are just 3-4 on the highway in the playoffs. Their defense is really good and probably considered underrated since most everyone talks about the offense but the defensive rating goes down away from home. Golden St. is 4-12 ATS in road games when playing only its 2nd game in five days this season. Boston took Game One thanks to incredible efforts on both ends of the floor in the fourth quarter and while it allowed 107 points in Game Two, the defense played pretty well overall. The problem that the Celtics need to work is matching Golden St. down low. They have been outscored by 33 points in the first two games within the first 64 minutes with their lineup of two big men consisting of either Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Al Horford or Daniel Theus. Boston is 33-17 at home and while the playoff record is just 5-4, injuries played roles in some of those losses. The Celtics lead the league in defensive rating and steps up again at home. Boston is 10-1 ATS this season after scoring 95 points or less including 7-0 ATS after scoring 90 points or less this season. 10* (522) Boston Celtics |
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06-08-22 | Phillies v. Brewers +120 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. We lost with the Brewers last night as they took a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning but gave up two solo home runs and went on to lose 3-2. Milwaukee has lost four straight games and six of its last seven but still sits nine games over .500 and their lead in the National League Central remains a half-game over the Cardinals. The Brewers are 15-10 at home and outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs per game and are catching another great line here. Adrian Houser has been outstanding at home with a 1.95 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in five starts, four of which he has allowed one or no runs. The Brewers are 14-5 in their last 19 home games against right-handed starters. Philadelphia has won five straight games including four straight since manager Joe Girardi was fired and they all of a sudden a clutch team. They rallied from a 5-0 deficit on Sunday and then the comeback last night as the offense has come to life but four of those recent wins have come at home and Philadelphia is 11-14 on the road and allowing 5.04 runs per nine innings. They are favored tonight based on the starting pitching matchup as well as the streaks but there is not much difference in the former. Aaron Nola is coming off a poor outing against the Giants and he has allowed four or more runs in three of his last five starts. The Phillies are 19-40 in their last 59 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg while hitting .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 33-10 (76.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -170 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. Tampa Bay found itself in a tough spot on Sunday as it fell behind 2-0 in the second period of Game Three and was staring at a 3-0 series deficit before reeling off the final three goals including the game winner with less than a minute remaining in the game. The Lightning have newfound life and carry that momentum into Game Four at home which is another must win before going back to New York. Tampa Bay was excellent on offense despite just the three goals scored as it took 52 shots and that is the style needed to defeat the best goaltender in the league. The Lightning are 32-9-2-4 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by over one gpg as both ends have played at a high level. Limiting the New York power play is vital as on the season, Tampa Bay is 19-8-3-0 when committing fewer penalties than its opponent. Tampa Bay is 16-1 against the money line in its last 17 home games after having lost two of their last three games. The Rangers remain on the road where they are 27-19-3-0 and outscoring opponents by just 0.04 gpg as the defense has been above average while the offense has been the opposite, averaging just 2.90 gpg mainly due to the lack of shots with only 27.5 per game. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games as a road underdog. 10* (46) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-07-22 | Phillies v. Brewers -101 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Phillies are on a mini-roll with four straight wins, three since manager Joe Girardi was fired and they seem to be a completely different team. They rallied from a 5-0 deficit on Sunday to defeat the Angels and the offense has come to life but all four of those wins have come at home and Philadelphia hits the road where it is 10-14 and allowing 5.2 runs per game. It is still sitting four games under .500 and 11 games behind the Mets in the National League East. Philadelphia is 15-23 against the money line against right-handed starters this season. Milwaukee has lost three straight games and five of its last six but still sits 10 games over .500 yet their lead in the National League Central has shrunk to a half-game over the Cardinals. The Brewers remain home where they are 15-9 and outscoring opponents by 1.4 runs per game and are catching a great line here which is based on the recent streaks and not the 14-game differential in the records. Milwaukee has to credit the pitching to the great start as it is top ten in all three major pitching categories. The Brewers are 44-22 against the money line in their last 66 games after a five-game span with an OBP of .285 or worse. Here, we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.7 or more rpg while hitting .240 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a team with a bullpen with an ERA of 3.75 or better. This situation is 33-9 (78.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-06-22 | Mets v. Padres -112 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Following a six-game winning streak, the Mets lost the first two games against the Dodgers but bounced back to win the last two games to split the four-game set. New York is 37-19 including a solid 18-11 on the road and it has an 8.5-game lead in the National League East. The Mets have been solid on both sides, ranking in the top five in runs scored and runs allowed per nine innings with a differential of over one run per game. The Mets are 22-45 in their last 67 road games vs. a left-handed starter. San Diego is coming off an extra inning win over the Brewers to make it three straight wins to move to 33-21 and is just two games behind the Dodgers in the National League West. The Padres went just 3-4 on their recent roadtrip and are back home where they are 13-10 and look to continue the recent offensive surge after a rough run and a lot of the season struggled can be attributed to the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. who has yet to take the field. The Padres are 14-3 in their last 17 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .460 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 77-40 (65.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (954) San Diego Padres |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers +116 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Western Conference Game of the Week. Edmonton finds itself in a nearly insurmountable hole as it is down 3-0 in the Western Conference Finals and will look to become only the sixth team in NHL history to win a series down 3-0. The Oilers are 32-14-1-1 at home, winning 20 of their last 27 games in Edmonton and things were looking good early in Game Three as they scored in the first minute of the game but were unable to sustain the momentum in the eventual 4-2 loss. The bad news for the Oilers is that Evander Kane was suspended for Game Four on his hit against Nazem Kadri but that is offset with the latter also missing the game because of the injury he sustained. The Oilers are 62-30 in their last 92 games playing on one day of rest. Colorado is in great position to make its first Stanley Cup Final since 2001 and certainly history is on its side but the Oilers will not go down without a fight. The Avalanche won the shots battle for the third straight game but have gone just 2-14 on the power play and that will be key for Edmonton to keep that going. The Colorado defense has stepped up over the last two games, allowing just two goals total thanks to backup goalie Pavel Francouz who has made 51 saves on 53 shots. Here, we play against road teams against the money line after two straight wins by two goals or more going up against an opponent after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. this situation is 126-84 (60 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (44) Edmonton Oilers |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Sunday Enforcer. Game One was typical of what we have seen throughout the playoffs where we have a team blowing a big lead only to get blown out. Golden St. had Boston against the wall as it took a 12-point lead after three quarters only to get outscored 40-16 in the fourth quarter. It was the first home loss in the playoffs for the Warriors which were 9-0 heading into Thursday and outscoring opponents by 13.4 ppg over that stretch. Now we can see what this team is capable of in a must win spot as one bad quarter cannot derail the mission they are on. The extra day off is good to kill off any Boston momentum and to make some necessary adjustments. Golden St. is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 home games after one or more consecutive losses. The three-point shooting for Boston was off the charts as it went 21-41 (51.2 percent) from long range and we do not expect to see that again. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown were just 3-11 but most everyone else were lights out, mostly in that final quarter. The Celtics have won eight of their last 10 road games which is hard to do in the postseason against quality opponents but this has been an atypical postseason where we have seen it all. Boston does have to given a lot of credit for making important adjustments defensively in the fourth quarter and now the strong Warriors defense will have to do the same in Game Two. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. this situation is 65-28 ATS (69.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (520) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning -169 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. The Lightning have their work cut out for them after dropping the first two games of this series and they are coming off their first loss following a loss in the postseason in three years after winning 16 straight games in that situation. A return back to Tampa is much needed as it is 31-9-2-4 at home this season where it is outscoring opponents by over one gpg as both ends have played at a high level. The Lightning are averaging 3.52 gpg on offense at home, where they finished No. 9 during the regular season, while allowing 2.48 gpg, coming in at No. 4 in regular season action. The Lightning are 37-15 in their last 52 games as a home favorite. New York has been playing its best hockey right now as it has won four straight games and six of its last seven against two of the very best teams in the league. The Rangers hit the road where they are 27-18-3-0 and outscoring opponents by just 0.7 gpg as the defense has been above average while the offense has been the opposite, averaging just 2.92 gpg mainly due to the lack of shots with only 27.5 per game. The Rangers were outshot in the first two games but goalie Igor Shesterkin has been great by allowing only two goals each in the first two games. The Rangers are 2-6 in their last eight games as an underdog. Here, we play against road teams against the money line off two or more consecutive home wins going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road losses. This situation is 238-149 (61.5 percent) since 1996. 10* (42) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers +116 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Western Conference Game of the Month. Through the first two games, Edmonton has not been able to show its typical firepower that has been on display all season as it has managed six goals and while all of those came in Game One, the shots are down as well. The Oilers have averaged 30.5 shots per game which is well below its average and a return home, where they average 36 shots per game can get them back in this series. Edmonton had averaged five gpg in its previous five games and on the other side, it has to play smarter and not allow seven power play chances like in Game Three. The Oilers are 32-13-1-1 at home, winning 20 of their last 26 games in Edmonton and this is the first home game since May 24th so it will be electric. Colorado did not budge at home as it scored 12 goals, 10 at even strength, while putting up 43.5 shots per game in the first two games. The Avalanche improved to 37-6-3-2 at home and they have been much more vulnerable on the road where they are 29-14-3-0 which is still great but this will be a tough spot against a veteran team desperate not to go down 3-0 in the series. The defense has been just as strong at home but they do allow 3.04 gpg on the road with a strong power play that has been inconsistent over its last 10 games but has gone 4-13 in its last four home games compared to 3-16 in its last six road games. Here, we play on teams in the second half of the season against the money line coming off a road loss where they were shut out, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team. This situation is 42-18 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (38) Edmonton Oilers |
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06-04-22 | White Sox v. Rays -117 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Tampa Bay took the opener of this series on Friday to make it three straight wins to improve to 31-21 and it remains six games behind the Yankees in the American League East. The Rays are 18-11 at home where the pitching has dominated with a 2.87 ERA which is third best in baseball and they are getting from both ends at starters and relievers have posted a sub-3.00 ERA. The hitting has not been as consistent but Tampa Bay averages 4.26 runs per nine innings at home against right-handed pitching. Tampa Bay is 10-1 against the money line against starting pitchers who strikes out five or more batters per start this season. The White Sox underachieving season continues as they have now lost four straight games while going 2-7 over their last nine. In those nine games, they have allowed an average of 7.7 rpg and the ERA from the starting pitching on the road is 4.29. The offense came into the season as one of the best on paper but injuries have really hurt as they are still without Eloy Jiminez and now Tim Anderson is on the shelf with a groin injury. Chicago is 12-14 on the road and going back, the White Sox are 12-41 in their last 53 games as a road underdog. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125with a starting pitcher whose lasts less than five innings per start, playing on Saturday. This situation is 67-31 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Tampa Bay Rays |
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06-03-22 | Lightning -122 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Friday Breakaway. The one concern we had with Tampa Bay going into Game One was the extended time off and the start was not horrible as it was a 2-2 game midway through the second period but then the Rangers ran off four unanswered goals to close the game. Now, the Lightning need Game Two to avoid a 2-0 deficit and this is just where we want them. Tampa Bay knows how to rebound as it has gone 16-0 in the playoffs during its two Stanley Cup runs plus this postseason following a loss and its offense has the power for another big rebound game which we have become accustomed to. The Lightning are 40-12 in their last 52 games following a loss of three or more goals. The Rangers have the momentum on their side but not the best of a matchup based on the Lightning ability to bounce back, especially after a loss that big. New York is 34-10-2-3 at home which is outstanding but faces a top road scoring offense that has averaged four gpg in their last seven road games. Goalie Igor Shesterkin was outstanding again as he allowed just one full strength goal but we expect the tide to turn here. The Rangers are 2-6 in their last seven games as an underdog. Here, we play on road favorites of -200 or less against the money line in the second half of the season revenging a blowout loss of three goals or more, with a winning percentage between .600 and .700. this situation is 33-7 (82.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (35) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-03-22 | Mariners v. Rangers +110 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Seattle won in extra innings on Thursday to improve to 22-29 on the season and also went to 10-19 on the road, both of which are very bad. The Mariners have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball through the first two months and while their overall rankings are not horrible, they have a -15 scoring differential and have gone 13-21 in non-one run games. Seattle is 4-15 against the money line in road games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Texas fell to Tampa Bay yesterday to make it two straight losses following a 6-1 run and the Rangers are now 24-26. Both pitching and offense are ranked in the top half of baseball and the numbers increase slightly at home. The pitching has made the most strides as Texas has posted a 2.88 ERA over its last 10 games and faces an offense that has been inconsistent the entire season. The Rangers are 6-0 in their last six games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against American League teams averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. This situation is 31-8 (79.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Texas Rangers |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our NBA Game of the Month. Boston knocked off top seed Miami to make it to the NBA Finals for the first time in long time for this storied franchise. The Celtics have the No. 1 defense in the league, but the Warriors finished the regular season with the No. 2 offense so it is strength against strength and playing Game One on the road will be a tough one. Going through the Nets, Bucks and Heat has put this team battle tested but the matchup here is not one they have seen. The Celtics are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following a straight up win. Golden St. is 9-0 at home in the playoffs, having outscored opponents by 13.4 ppg and have done it with an underrated defense that counters its great offense. The rest aspect is big here as the Warriors had two more days of rest before the Memphis and Dallas series and then went out and won each and this time, they have three more days of rest than the Celtics and the latter is moving cross country. The Warriors are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 home games against teams with a winning road record. Here, we play against road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after having covered four or five of their last six games against the spread, in a game involving two teams with winning percentages between .600 and .750. this situation is 65-27 ATS (70.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (518) Golden St. Warriors |
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06-02-22 | Mariners v. Orioles -102 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After getting shutout in the series opener 10-0, the Orioles responded with a 9-2 win on Wednesday and have now won eight of their last 13 games. Baltimore is 13-12 at home where it is hitting .247 while averaging 4.56 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching which is above average across the league. The pitching has been even better here as the Orioles have a team ERA of 3.32 at Camden Yards that includes a 2.62 ERA from the bullpen. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. Seattle fell to 21-29 on the season with the Wednesday loss and also dropped to 9-19 on the road. The Mariners have been one of the most disappointing teams in baseball through the first two months and while their overall rankings are not horrible, they have a -16 scoring differential and have gone 13-21 in non-one run games. Seattle is 3-15 against the money line in road games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse this season. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 4.2 or fewer rpg and with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season going up against a team with a very bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better. This situation is 41-13 (75.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-01-22 | Lightning -121 v. Rangers | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -121 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING for our NHL Wednesday Breakaway. The Rangers have had an interesting postseason as they have come back from a 3-1 deficit against Pittsburgh and then against a 3-2 deficit against Carolina. They were able to gain home ice for the Eastern Conference Finals but will be facing a proven team with experience that is riding a six-game winning streak. New York is 33-10-2-3 at home which is outstanding but faces a top road scoring offense that has averaged over four gpg in their last six road games. The Rangers are 1-6 in their last seven games as an underdog. The time off for the Lightning is a concern but this is a core team that has been here before and their time off is actually a benefit. Tampa Bay won its first two road games against Florida in the semis and has won three straight on the road with Andrei Vasilevskiy allowing just one goal in each of those games. The Rangers have their own top level goaltender in Igor Shesterkin who will win the Vezina Trophy and is coming off a great series against Carolina and while going 3-0 against Tampa Bay this season, he saw just 23.7 gpg in the three meetings. The Lightning are 22-8 in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. Here, we play against teams against the money line off a road win against a division rival going up against an opponent off a home win where they shut out their opponent. This situation is 23-4 (85.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (31) Tampa Bay Lightning |
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06-01-22 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Toronto took the series opener on Tuesday to make it six straight wins, the last four coming by one run. The Blue Jays have cut the lead in the American League East to 5.5 games with a 28-20 record and the offense, which got off to a slow start, has come around by averaging 6.8 rpg during this recent winning streak and that is a great upswing when facing a top level starter. The Blue Jays are 22-7 in their last 29 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Chicago is plugging along at a game under .500 after having lost four of its last six games and the White Sox are now five games behind the Twins in the American League Central. They are a game over .500 on the road but are averaging just 3.6 runs per nine innings on the highway. The White Sox are 4-17 against the money line in their last 21 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage between .540 and .620. Here, we play on American League home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 allowing 4.4 or fewer rpg going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who gave up no earned runs last outing. This situation is 61-20 (75.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (924) Toronto Blue Jays |
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05-31-22 | Oilers +163 v. Avalanche | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the EDMONTON OILERS for our NHL Tuesday Breakaway. This is a great matchup in the Western Conference Finals with two of the higher scoring teams in the league led by two incredible top lines. The Oilers have won six of their last seven playoff games since facing elimination in Game Six in the first round against Los Angeles. Edmonton has been great on the road including two straight wins in Calgary and while this test is arguably bigger, it matches up well. The Oilers have scored at least five goals in six of their 12 games this post-season and during the regular season, it went 1-0-1-1 with an overtime loss being the only blemish on the road. Edmonton is 18-6 against the money line in its last 24 games off a win by one goal over a division rival. Colorado had to go six games against St. Louis where the road team won the final five games of the series. The Avalanche have been tough to beat here but have dropped two straight here to make it 11 losses at home and while the favorite price is lower than it has been, it is for a good reason yet there is still value on the road team. The Avalanche are 7-0 this post-season when they have 37 or more shots on goal and Edmonton has allowed fewer than that in five of its last seven games. Here, we play against home Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 having won eight or more of their last 10 games. This situation is 36-23 (61 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (27) Edmonton Oilers |
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05-31-22 | Royals v. Guardians -122 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND GUARDIANS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Cleveland took the opener of this series on Monday with a 7-3 win and it remains up and down after a good start to the season. The Guardians are five games under .500 and have played a rugged schedule by playing 27 road games and just 16 home games where they are 8-8. Despite the record, they are in the top third in baseball in batting average and batting averaging allowed. Cleveland is 50-20 in its last 70 games against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175. Kansas City has lost two straight games and nine of its last 11 as it sits in last place in the American League Central at 16-31, 12 games behind the Twins. The Royals are 8-16 on the road and they bring in the third worst pitching staff in baseball as they are ranked No. 27 in runs allowed per nine innings while backing that up with rankings of No. 28 in batting average allowed and No. 27 in opposing OPS. Kansas City is 2-13 against the money line against teams with a bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season. Here, we play against American League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 48-17 (73.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (968) Cleveland Guardians |
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05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the CAROLINA HURRICANES for our NHL Eastern Conference Game of the Week. The home team has dominated this series with all six games being won on home ice. The Rangers controlled Game Six by scoring the first three goals and not looking back but it was the special teams that won it. New York scored on two of its five power play opportunities while shutting down the Hurricanes on their three chances. Overall, the Rangers were outshot 39-25 which was the fourth time in this series that they were outshot with another being 21-21. The Rangers are 1-5 in the postseason on the road and going back, the Rangers are 0-5 in their last five games as a road underdog. The Hurricanes are 7-0 at home in the playoffs to improve to 36-8-2-2 at home on the season and they bring in the best defense in the NHL with the fewest goals allowed and they have been spectacular here. Carolina has allowed only 12 power play goals at home and its 92 percent save percentage is the best in the league but it is the other side that needs to cash in. Carolina has gone 1-14 on the power play in this series and of course a lot of that has to do with having the best goalie in the game but we expect the chances to come here. The Hurricanes are 28-8 in their last 36 playoff games as a favorite. 10* (22) Carolina Hurricanes |
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05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON CELTICS for our NBA Eastern Conf. Game of the Week. Miami has been able to maintain its home court advantage thanks to a win in Game Six in Boston and it is back home where this series comes down to one game. The Heat are 36-14 at home while outscoring opponents by seven ppg. The Boston defense gets the most pub which is legit but Miami is ranked No. 4 in scoring defense, No. 4 in shooting defense and No. 2 in three-point shooting defense but we expect Boston to bounce back. Miami got a great effort from Jimmy Butler as he poured in 47 points and while that is great momentum, the Boston defense will make the adjustment. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog. Certainly, there is a lot on the line for not just now but Boston has gone 0-4 in its last four chances to make it the NBA Finals and the role from Butler to Jayson Tatum is key in this matchup. He is coming off a 30-point game and likely will need more as well as more help from the bench. Derrick White was the top guy off the bench in Game Six and that was basically it as the Celtics got only two other bench points. The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a straight up loss. Here, we play on favorites revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite of seven points or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite. This situation is 38-12 ATS (76 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (509) Boston Celtics |
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05-28-22 | Hurricanes v. Rangers -106 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK RANGERS for our NHL Saturday Breakaway. The Rangers have been here before as they fell behind 3-1 against Pittsburgh before coming back to win three straight games to take the quarterfinal series and once again find themselves in a hole needing to win two straight games. They are back home following a 3-1 loss in Game Five at Carolina and they can take this one to go back for another Game Seven. A return home will help and New York is catching a good number with the best goalie in the game as the Rangers are 32-10-2-3 at home where they are allowing only 2.30 gpg. Special teams has been a big part of this series as New York has allowed only one power play goal in 11 opportunities while converting on its own power play in three straight games. The Rangers are 39-13 in their last 52 games as a favorite. The Hurricanes have a great defense as well but they are not as strong on the road as at home where they are giving up 2.9 gpg and an issue is the penalty kill. They have allowed 30 power play goals on away ice and while the percentage is decent, it is because they have faced 168 man down opportunities and that is a problem. The Hurricanes are 0-5 in their last five road games. Here, we play on favorites against the money line in the second half of the season with a winning percentage between .600 and .700 revenging a loss where it scored one or less goals. This situation is 89-32 (73.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (14) New York Rangers |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Friday Enforcer. The broken record continues. The awful NBA basketball postseason keeps chugging along and this series is right at the top. There have been leads by at least 20 points in each game and overall, of the 35 games played since the start of the Conference Semifinals, 29 games have been decided by seven points or more with 22 of those being by double-digits with another taking place in the east on Wednesday. Boston took control of this series with a 13-point win in Game Five on the road and have a chance to meet the Warriors in the NBA Finals with a win on Friday at home. Because of the lead and the type of games we have seen, Boston is favored by its biggest amount in this series and a closer game either way cashes this one. Boston is 7-19 ATS in its last 26 home games after a win by 10 points or more. Despite opening with the home court advantage and having the top seed, Miami was not the favorite coming into this series and now it must win the final two games to advance. The Heat are coming off two bad games offensively and a lot of that can be put on Jimmy Butler. He has been injured but Boston has adjusted well as it is limiting his ability to drive and forcing him to take jumpers. The has scored 27 points the last three games combined following a 4-18 performance in Game Five and like Jayson Tatum in Game Four, the star needs to bring it. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a double-digit loss at home. Here, we play on road teams revenging a same season loss, off a home loss by 10 points or more. This situation is 116-66 ATS (63.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Miami Heat |
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05-27-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Friday Breakaway. St. Louis got a little bit of payback as after watching Colorado come back from early deficits in Games Three and Four, the Blues rallied from a 3-0 deficit in Game Five to eventually force overtime and win to keep their slim hopes alive. The Blues are dangerous at home as they are 28-13-4-1 even though it has lost the two games here in this series. St. Louis has a significant +1.0 gpg scoring differential at home and special teams has led the way as evidenced in this entire series as the Blues have stopped nine of 11 power play opportunities while scoring four goals in 11 chances on offense. Goalie Ville Husso has been solid if unspectacular in taking over for Jordan Binnington. The Blues are 36-17 in their last 53 games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. The Avalanche took Game One at home in overtime and since then, the road team has won the last four games in this series and that is putting the public behind Colorado in this possible close out game. Colorado is 28-14-3-0 on the road which is very solid but its numbers drop significantly on road ice as the scoring is down by close to a goal per game while the defense allows close to the same more on the road than at home. Colorado can score in bunches as we have seen the last three games and the St. Louis defense has to counter which it did at the end of Game Five. The Avalanche are 9-19 in their last 28 Conference Semifinals games. Here, we play on home teams against the money line after allowing four goals or more going up against an opponent after losing their previous game in overtime. This situation is 131-85 (60.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (72) St. Louis Blues |
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05-27-22 | Yankees v. Rays -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our A.L. East Game of the Month. The Yankees took the series opener on Thursday to increase their lead in the American League East to 5.5 games over Tampa Bay. New York has been solid on both sides as evidenced by its 32-13 record as it is ranked No. 6 offensively and No. 2 defensively in runs scored per nine innings with very similar OPS rankings as well. The Yankees are 15-6 on the road which is the second best road record in baseball based on winning percentage and as always, the public backs them and has cleaned up thus far but they have a tough matchup here. Jameson Taillon has been solid with a 2.95 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in eight starts and is being publicly backed here. Tampa Bay has won five of its previous seven games prior to Thursday and it can put a nice dent into the Yankees lead with a big weekend. The Rays are now 15-10 at home and the pitching has led the way with a 2.93 ERA that is equally solid from both the starting pitching and the bullpen. This has been a great situational spot as they are averaging 4.73 runs per nine innings against right-handed pitching and going back, the Rays are 40-14 in their last 54 home games against right-handed starters. Jeffrey Springs will be making his fifth start of the season and each start has been progressively better as his pitch count has increased and he has pitched to a 1.32 ERA and 0.80 WHIP and his numbers are even better in two home outings. Here, we play against American League road teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season. This situation is 287-166 (63.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (970) Tampa Bay Rays |
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05-26-22 | Oilers v. Flames -145 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
This is a play on the CALGARY FLAMES for our NHL Thursday Breakaway. Calgary came into this series as the significant favorite and now finds itself down 3-1 but it does have the edge of two more home games should the series go the distance. The Flames are 29-11-6-1 at home including a win in the series opener 9-6 before the string of three straight losses and the defense needs a big push. They have allowed an average of five gpg through the first four games and while the offense gets the most pub, this defense allowed 2.51 gpg during the regular season which was third fewest in the NHL and that drops to 2.39 gpg at home, which was also third in the league. Goalie Jacob Markstrom has been a disappointment and his season 2.22 GAA will be more on display tonight. The Flames are 7-3 in their last 10 games after allowing five goals or more in their previous game. Edmonton is showing how dangerous it can be when the offense is clicking but it has accomplished this with limited shots as the Oilers have attempted an average of 33.8 shots per game which is a healthy amount on average but not many for the amount of goals they have scored. Edmonton comes in with a 24-17-5-0 record on the road and the Game Two victory is the only road win in the eight meetings this season. The Oilers have stepped up the penalty kill as they have allowed only two goals in 17 opportunities and this is another ongoing issue with the Flames going back to the Dallas series. The Oilers are 7-15 in their last 22 games as an underdog. Here, we play on home teams when the money line is -100 to -150 after allowing three goals or more in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring four goals or more in four straight games. This situation is 25-3 (89.3 percent) since 1996. 10* (68) Calgary Flames |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | Top | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the GOLDEN ST. WARRIORS for our Western Conference Game of the Week. Dallas played with an inspired effort on Tuesday following the horrific tragedy in Texas as it remained alive in this series with a 119-109 victory in Game Four where it led by as many as 29 points. The Mavericks shot 50 percent from the floor including 47 percent from long range which was their best offensive effort in the series but they are now back on the road where they shot a combined 44.2 percent in the first two games. Dallas is 26-24 on the road and has been outscored and outshot overall and finds itself in another difficult spot against a defense that prides its game on defense. Dallas did get extra production from its bench in Game Four but those efforts have been few and far-between. The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with a winning home record. Golden St. definitely had a tough time on Tuesday as it was unable to close the series out but is still in great shape to make it to the NBA Finals. The Warriors return home where they are 39-10 including an 8-0 record in the postseason, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.4 ppg in those eight playoff games. As we have talked about before, this defense is the centerpiece which does not seem typical for this team but the Warriors are ranked No. 3 in points allowed, No. 2 in shooting defense and No. 3 in three-point shooting defense. Despite the loss, the Warriors still won the battle down low with a 44-36 advantage in the paint and they have done so in all four games and are still shooting over 60 percent from two-point range. Golden St. is 19-6 ATS revenging a road loss this season. 10* (504) Golden St. Warriors |
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05-26-22 | Red Sox v. White Sox -102 | Top | 16-7 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After a 16-3 bashing at the hands of the Red Sox on Tuesday, Chicago bounced back with a win on Wednesday to make it three wins in its last four games. The White Sox are back over .500 and they now trail the Twins by 4.5 games in the American League Central and can close out this series with a win in what is a good matchup. They are still a game under .500 at home as they have been hit hard with injuries as Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez are both on the 10-day IL but there is still plenty in the lineup that can get to Michael Wacha who will likely have a limited pitch count once again. The White Sox are 9-3 in their last 12 games against teams with a losing record. Boston had its six-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and the Red Sox remain in fourth place in the American League East, trailing the Yankees by 10.5 games. They are three games under .500 overall and three games under .500 on the road where the offense has struggled with a .210 average against left-handed pitching. Dallas Keuchel has struggled overall but his damage has come on the road with two awful starts against the Yankees and Guardians but brings in a 3.32 ERA in four home starts. The Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against American League road teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg and after scoring one run or less going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 6.20 or worse. This situation is 50-23 (68.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Chicago White Sox |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Wednesday Enforcer. The awful NBA basketball continues and this series is right at the top. There have been leads by at least 20 points in each game and overall, of the 33 games played since the start of the Conference Semifinals, 27 games have been decided by seven points or more with 20 of those being by double-digits. Miami has been able to maintain its home court advantage thanks to a win in Game Three in Boston and it is back home where this series should continue to be more chippy. The Heat are 36-12 at home while outscoring opponents by seven ppg. The Boston defense gets the most pub which is legit but Miami is ranked No. 4 in scoring defense, No. 4 in shooting defense and No. 2 in three-point shooting defense and has the edge with this line. Miami is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 home games after scoring 100 points or less this season. Boston picked up the must win in Game Four to prevent a 3-1 deficit in this series. We expected a big game from Jayson Tatum and he produced after an awful Game Two although he was just 1-7 from long range. Injuries have played a big role in this series and both teams have a key player questionable in Game five as Tyler Herro and Marcus Smart are both questionable but we will likely see both play. The Celtics are 28-20 on the road which is solid and they have been great against the top teams but catching Miami in this spot after that loss is a tough one. While Tatum bounced back, we will see the same from Jimmy Butler who scored only six points on just 3-14 shooting and this will be his game to take over. The Celtics are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight up win. 10* (502) Miami Heat |
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05-25-22 | Blues +235 v. Avalanche | Top | 5-4 | Win | 235 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS BLUES for our NHL Central Division Game of the Month. We lost with St. Louis in both Game Three and Game Four and both were nearly identical as the Blues jumped out to 1-0 leads in both games and then were outscored 3-0 in Game Two and 4-0 in Game Four and could not recover in either game. The Blues are in a tough hole now as they have to win three straight including two on the road but they have shown they can do it here. Overall, the Blues have accounted for two of the six home Colorado defeats as it won the first meeting of the season and Game Two of this series and St. Louis is 2-4-1 in the seven meetings with four of those being on the road. St. Louis is 10-3 in its last 13 road games playing with double revenge while going 10-2 in its last 12 games after allowing six or more goals. The Avalanche have taken control with an offense that is one of the best in the NHL and after accounting for 11 goals in the two games in St. Louis, they have some momentum heading back home and the line is accounting for that. Colorado is 35-6-2-2 at home and have absolutely dominated but this is the matchup that has given it the most trouble. Despite the record difference, the offensive and defensive splits are extremely similar and St. Louis have been very good in these spots this season even though this is a much different and important situation. Colorado is just 1-8 in the power play in this series and this is where the Blues have to continue to control. Here, we play on road teams against the money line off two consecutive losses of two goals or more to division rivals going up against an opponent off two or more consecutive road wins. This situation is 22-9 (71 percent) since 1996. 10* (63) St. Louis Blues |