Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 144 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee finished the regular season four games better than the Dodgers, stormed through the NLDS with three straight wins on top of eliminating the Cubs in Game 163 and their current winning streak stands at 11 straight games yet they are getting no respect here. The betting public is all over the Dodgers in Game One with two-thirds of the tickets on their side so Milwaukee is catching a fantastic number at home. The Brewers quietly went 51-30 at home, the best home record in the National League, and they are 20-7 in their last 27 home games against teams with a winning road record. The story all season for the Brewers has been their bullpen and rightfully so. Milwaukee's 3.47 ERA in relief was second in the National League only to the Cubs. The bullpen went 2-0 with a save and a 1.17 ERA in the three-game Division Series sweep over Colorado. But Gio Gonzalez is getting overshadowed here in what is a great spot. It has been quite a rebound since being acquired in a deal with the Nationals, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts with Milwaukee. Gonzalez is 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in six career starts against the Dodgers. Clayton Kershaw is the reason the Dodgers are big road favorites and he has been solid since his return from the disabled list. But the postseason demons still linger. While Kershaw has thrown 12 consecutive scoreless innings in the postseason dating back to last year's World Series, he is 2-4 with a 4.65 ERA in five career starts in the NLCS. Here, we play on home underdogs after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs, in October games. This situation is 41-23 (64.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (902) Milwaukee Brewers |
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10-09-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -119 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Divisional Series rounds have been nothing short of duds as we have seen a pair of sweeps and a near sweep with the Dodgers and it is up to the Yankees to finally have one go the distance. They were trounced last night as the Red Sox erupted for 16 runs on 18 hits as they got to every New York pitcher that entered the game as all six arms allowed at least one earned run and walked at least two. This included the use of catcher Austin Romine in the ninth inning which was a smart move to preserve pitchers for tonight. The Boston highlight was Brock Holt hitting for the first cycle in postseason history and the Yankees probably took offense to it by leaving him in as he hit a two-run home run in the ninth inning to make history. C.C. Sabathia will try to repress the Boston offense and he has a good chance to do just that as the Red Sox are hitting just .250 against left-handed pitching which is middle of the pack and they have hit just 37 home runs which is ninth lowest in baseball. Sabathia has been solid at home with a 3.12 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Rick Porcello counters for Boston and has been decent all season but this is not a good time or place. He is 0-2 with a 5.85 ERA in four postseason starts and while he was tremendous against the Yankees this season, going 2-0 with a 2.31 ERA in four starts, the ERA at home is 0.50 in three starts and 8.44 ERA in the one start in New York. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 to .279 with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (922) New York Yankees |
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10-08-18 | Astros v. Indians -118 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -118 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. It is do or die for Cleveland which lost the first two games of this ALDS as the offense was handcuffed by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. A return home should help that where Cleveland finished 49-32 during the regular season and hit .267 which was second best in the American League behind Boston. Houston possessed the best road record in baseball at 57-24 so the challenge for Cleveland to stay alive will not be easy but the price reflects that. Houston has just three wins in their last 11 playoff road games. Dallas Keuchel used to be the ace of this staff but he has taken a step back. After winning the Cy Young in 2015, he followed that up with a poor 2016 and after a bounce back last season, he has a 3.74 ERA and 1.31 WHP which are good by most standards but not his. His home/road and day/night splits are very similar but he has struggled on the road with a 5.40 ERA in his last five road starts and he comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.85 WHIP over his last three starts overall. He faced Cleveland twice this season and was average with a 4.91 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Mike Clevinger has been on a great run as he has a 2.31 ERA and 1.03 WHIP since the All Star Break, covering 13 starts. He made 13 daytime starts as well and posted a 2.04 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. While the Astros tagged him for eight runs in 11.2 innings, both of those were early in the season in back-to-back starts in May. The Indians are 6-0 in his last six home starts. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less two straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 168-81 (67.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (916) Cleveland Indians |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -152 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -152 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We played on Colorado on Friday and unfortunately, a solid performance from Tyler Anderson was ruined by the offense that has suddenly gone ice cold. The Rockies have scored just six runs over their last four games but all of those games have come on the road and we know what this offense is capable of at home where it leads all of baseball in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. We expected a line move here after opening at -140 and it did go up but not to a point where it is unplayable as Colorado looks to avoid elimination. Milwaukee remains the hottest team in the postseason a it has reeled off 10 consecutive wins as both offense and pitching have been spot on. The Brewers are headed to a tough spot however based on venue and matchup as they will be facing one of the hottest starting pitchers in all of baseball. German Marquez was not at his finest in Los Angeles last time out but it was just two pitches that cost him, snapping a 12-game quality start streak. While going back to Coors Field for some pitchers is not a good thing, it is for Marquez as he has posted a 1.90 ERA there since July over seven starts. Wade Miley has had a breakout season but he is leaking some oil down the stretch as he has posted a 4.24 ERA over his last four starts and gets the tough task of facing Colorado at the wrong place at the wrong time. Here, we play against underdogs after allowing two runs or less in three straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less three straight games. This situation is 67-25 (72.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (956) Colorado Rockies |
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10-06-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES/BOSTON RED SOX OVER for our MLB Saturday Totals Dominator. The Yankees dug themselves into a 5-0 hole last night and could not get out of it although they gave it their best and look to build on that tonight. They outhit Boston 10-8 but managed only four runs and the offense has a chance to break out in a big way on Saturday. Boston was unable to get to the Yankees bullpen last night but this offense remains red hot as the Red Sox have averaged 7.6 rpg over their last seven games which have all come at Fenway Park. They finished as the best hitting team at home in the American League and have a chance to tee off again tonight. Masahiro Tanaka had a solid run from mid-August to mid-September but he has struggled over his last two starts allowing eight runs over eight innings. One of those games came against Boston which has been his least favorite team to pitch against this season as he has posted a 7.58 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in four starts. The Yankees have scored 31 runs in their last four games when facing a left-handed starter and one of those came against David Price where he was tagged for six runs in 5.1 innings. This is another bad pitching matchup as Price has a 10.34 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in four starts against the Yankees which led baseball with 82 home runs against lefty pitching, nine of which were against Price. 10* Over (953) New York Yankees/(954) Boston Red Sox |
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10-05-18 | Rockies +145 v. Brewers | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Game of the Week. Milwaukee took Game One of this NLDS yesterday on a walk-off single after blowing a 2-0 lead in the ninth inning and the Brewers remain the hottest of all teams still playing with nine straight wins. The offense led the way toward the end of the regular season but the pitching has carried Milwaukee of late as it has allowed just three runs over the last three games and the bullpen start on Thursday proved to be the right move. The Rockies finished with only four hits yesterday and they have scored only six runs over the last three games since ending the regular season tied with the Dodgers in the National League West. Fatigue and travel can be blamed for the lack of production but an offense of this caliber cannot be kept down for long and Friday presents a great opportunity to bust out. Jhoulys Chacin has had a great season and he has been efficient of late, allowing three runs or less in 11 straight games. The issue here is that since September, he has not gotten out of the sixth inning of any of his six starts which poses a problem for the bullpen tat was utilized a great deal yesterday. Colorado has won eight of its last 11 games against right-handed starters and it is hitting a solid .279 against right-handed pitching over its last 10 games. The backend of the rotation is in play again with Tyler Anderson getting the ball today but he has been dealing of late with a 1.83 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over his last three starts. While he has a 5.02 ERA on the road for the season, he has a 1.20 WHIP to go along with that which shows he has been pitching better than the ERA indicates and as long as he keeps the ball in the yard, he will be fine. Look for the Rockies to tie this series up before heading home for Game Three on Sunday. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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10-04-18 | Braves +165 v. Dodgers | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Braves ascension to the top of the National League East took less time than expected as this team went from last place in the National League East in 2016 with 68 wins to third place last season with 72 wins to winning the division this year with 90 victories. Reading some articles online about this series, I came across one and the first sentence from some dolt was "The Dodgers are really good, and the Braves are really not." That is exactly the mindset of the betting public as Atlanta finished one game worse than Los Angeles, had three more road wins than the Dodgers had home wins during the regular season and yet come in as massive underdogs for the series and for Game One. Mike Foltynewicz is getting no respect, which has been the case most of the season, and he has been an underdog higher than this price only four times this season and those came against Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg and Scherzer again. do disrespect to Hyun-Jin Ryu, but he should not be in that group. Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, good for fifth and sixth best in the National League respectively. His ERA on the road is over a half-run less than it is at home and the Braves have won four of his last five road starts. The Dodgers decided to move Clayton Kershaw out of Game One and into Game Two so he would be guaranteed the Game Five start should the series go that far and it was a smart move. Ryu has had a great season but this is an extremely tough matchup as the Braves are hitting .269 against left-handed pitching this season, third best in baseball. The Dodgers are 5-12 in his last 17 starts when playing against a team with a winning record. 10* (903) Atlanta Braves |
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10-03-18 | A's v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 102 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S/NEW YORK YANKEES OVER for our MLB Total of the Year. After a pitching duel last night in Chicago, we should be in for some offense tonight from the Bronx. We all know about the Yankees offense and what it is capable of and it comes in blazing hot, averaging 8.2 rpg over its last six games and that with putting up two runs in the season finale with the starters seeing limited action. The Oakland bats have been firing since the end of August as it has averaged 6.4 rpg over its last 27 games. Oakland employed the bullpen approach once against the Yankees with Liam Hendricks starting and while the game stayed under the total, it was due to the Oakland bats being ice cold against J.A. Happ. Hendricks gets the call tonight and he will be just the fourth pitcher to start a postseason game after a regular season of no wins, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. He has been solid when starting with the bullpenning approach but now comes the biggest test of them all. Luis Severino counters for New York and while he has been great at home this season, most of that success came in the first half. He has a 5.47 ERA in his last five starts in Yankee Stadium. He dominated Oakland in his first start, but that was in May, and he was rocked for six runs in 2.2 innings in Oakland a month ago. There is no team in the postseason that has hit better on the road than the A's. Oakland leads all playoff teams in road hits, road homers, road slugging and scoring and it ranks second in road on-base percentage. They even set a Major League record by homering in 25 straight games on the road. Here, we play the over involving road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 after a loss by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a combined score of 12 runs or more in four straight games. This situation is 32-9 (78 percent) since 1997. 10* Over (939) Oakland A's/(940) New York Yankees |
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10-02-18 | Rockies +125 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 125 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Tuesday Wild Card Annihilator. Yesterday was obviously important for the Rockies and they did not come through as a dropped third strike played a big part, so instead of hosting the Braves on Thursday, they have to travel east to play another game today in a one-and-done situation. While Colorado seems to be at a huge disadvantage since the Cubs were able to stay right where they were yesterday, the Rockies are the play. The public is all over Chicago in what might be considered a short number but yesterday showed what this team has had issues with over the second half of the season and that is the offense. The Cubs had just three hits yesterday and going back to September 10th, they have averaged just 3.7 rpg over the last 21 games. The Rockies got handcuffed last night by rookie Walker Buehler but this offense can explode at any moment and why not tonight. Jon Lester has been a postseason force throughout his career so he will not be feeling any pressure tonight. But he faces a murders row of left-handed crushers with Nolan Arenado posting a .368/.451/.747 line against lefties and Trevor Story posting a .326/.389/.680 line against lefties while Ian Desmond goes from a .216 to a .280 hitter facing lefties. And then there are DJ LeMahieu at .330/.360/.540 and Charlie Blackmon at .293/.352/.464 that bring together a team that has hit 247 RBIs, the most in baseball. Not many know who Kyle Freeland is but he has quietly put together a fantastic season. The Denver native has probably dreamed of this moment since he was a kid and there will be no pressure with this scenario having been replayed many times. He has a 2.85 ERA on the season which is fifth best in the National League and his 2.49 ERA since the All Star Break is fifth best in baseball. Even better, in his last 11 starts, Freeland is 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA and the Rockies are 12-2 in his last 14 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (937) Colorado Rockies |
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10-01-18 | Rockies +159 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Both the Rockies and Dodgers won huge yesterday for force game 163 and this is a huge game for both sides. The winning team will be the National League West champion and the second seed in the National League playoffs, hosting the Atlanta Braves on Thursday night. The losing team will be the second National League Wild Card team and will have a quick turnaround as they will travel to play the winner of the Cubs-Brewers Game. Colorado is 44-37 on the road which is the same as the Dodgers record at home yet Los Angeles comes in as a favorite that shows it is significantly better at home, which it is not, or has a huge starting pitching matchup, which it does not. German Marquez gets the ball for Colorado and he has been outstanding after a slow start. He has posted a 2.16 ERA over his last 12 starts and he has pitched well against the Dodgers including going 2-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 15 innings this season in Los Angeles. Hitters currently on the Dodgers roster have hit a combined .188/.259/.386 in a total of 113 plate appearances against Marquez. Walker Buehler is having a solid rookie season as he has tossed three straight quality outings. He has been very good at home but he has struggled during the day with a 4.91 ERA in five games. The Rockies are 23-8 in their last 31 games against right-handed starters. 10* (953) Colorado Rockies |
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09-30-18 | Nationals v. Rockies -166 | Top | 0-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Washington got to Colorado last night for five runs in the first two innings to make Sunday a big day for the Rockies and Dodgers. Colorado caught a huge break with Los Angeles winning last night as strange as that may sound but because the Dodgers clinched a playoff spot, Washington elected to replace Max Scherzer with Erick Fedde. The Rockies need to win today to avoid a trip to either Milwaukee or Los Angeles tomorrow should either or both of those teams win today. The Rockies are 6-1 in their last seven games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is in spoiler role still and with Scherzer getting scratched, we could see some offense taking the day off as well. The Nationals are 7-15 in their last 22 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. The Rockies turn to Tyler Anderson who was scratched in his last start and the rest should do him good in a big spot today. He was in the midst of a horrible run but he posted a pair of quality outings in the last roadtrip, including one against the Dodgers, so he can bring some confidence back home. It is not a fluke either as he made an adjustment with his delivery. Fedde has been average as he has gone six straight starts without a quality outing including his last four since re-entering the rotation. He was shelled by the Rockies in his lone start against them last season and this is his first trip to Coors Field. Here, we play against teams with a slugging percentage of .440 or better over their last 20 games and starting a pitcher who walked four or more hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 36-18 (66.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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09-29-18 | Braves +150 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. We are going back to the well tonight with the Braves after they won last night to remain tied with the Rockies for second place in the National League. They do have a tough matchup tonight but with everything on the line, grabbing them at this price is a must. They continue their solid road play where they are now 47-32 on the season including going 10-1 in their last 11 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Phillies continue to reel since being eliminated from playoff contention as they have lost nine straight games. Both sides of the ball have been a disaster as Philadelphia has scored three runs or less in seven straight games while allowing 10 runs or lore in four of their last five games. During this losing streak, they are getting outscored by an average of 6.6 rpg and they have dropped 12 straight games against teams with a winning record. Aaron Nola is the reason this price is as big as it is but he has faded slightly down the stretch. Coming into September, his worst month was June where he posted a 3.23 ERA in five starts but in five starts this month, he has a 4.60 ERA and this includes a 5.51 ERA in three home starts. The Braves are 19-7 this season against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.05 or better. Anibal Sanchez continues his solid turnaround season as he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 23 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in his last eight road outings. The Braves fall into a great situation where we play against National League teams that are hitting .200 or worse over their last five games, after a game where the bullpen allowed six or more earned runs. This situation is 50-24 (67.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (957) Atlanta Braves |
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09-28-18 | Dodgers v. Giants +176 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Giants are significant underdogs tonight despite having a massive starting pitching advantage as Los Angeles is favored big due to its needing to win based on the National League playoff race. The Dodgers dropped the final two games against Arizona and things are dicey at this point as they enter the series with a chance to win the National League West, capture a National League Wild Card spot or miss the playoff entirely, all to be determined within three games against a team that has beaten them nine of 16 this season. The Giants season has been over for a while but they have one goal left and that is to play spoiler against their hated rivals. They have lost six of their last seven games, including a three-game sweep last week at the hands of the Cardinals, who gained ground on the Dodgers in the process. The major problem has been on the road where San Francisco has the second worst record in the National League but it has been dependable at home with a 42-36 record and it is 19-8 after having lost six or seven of its last eight games this season. Madison Bumgarner specifically asked to pitch in this series as he had his final start of the year pushed back from Wednesday to Friday so you know he is going to be dealing. The fact it is at home is where the pitching edge comes into play as after a rough outing here against the Cardinals on July 8, Bumgarner has a 0.79 ERA over his last five home starts including three straight of allowing no runs. Hyun-Jin Ryu has not allowed a run over his last two starts but both of those were at home where he has a 1.15 ERA. In contrast, he has a 4.15 ERA on the road. 10* (914) San Francisco Giants |
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09-28-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays -165 | 7-6 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 60 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Toronto was able to salvage the series finale against Houston which was its last home game of the season and last home game for manager John Gibbons. The Blue Jays hit the road where they are 32-46 on the season and have struggled of late as they are 2-8 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning record. The offense has struggled as they have scored just nine runs over their last four games and Toronto is hitting only .239 on the road. Tampa Bay lost three of four against the Yankees to be officially eliminated from the playoffs but it was a successful season. Expectations were low but the Rays exceeded everything as they are 17 games over .500 and currently possess the fourth best home record in baseball at 49-29 and more recently, they have won 38 of their last 52 home games. Tyler Glasnow is making his 11th start since joining Tampa Bay from Pittsburgh and while his 4.11 looks average, his 1.01 WHIP is not. He is riding a three-game quality start streak and is getting added rest. Since his previous start came Saturday in Toronto, he was available to pitch Thursday on his normal four days of rest, but they decided to give him an additional day off. The Blue Jays are 6-20 in their last 26 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Thomas Pannone counters for Toronto and he looks to close out what has been a solid run after his late call-up. Four of his five starts have been quality performances but he is in a tough spot here in his season finale. He has pitched much better at home than on the road, has allowed seven home runs over his last four starts and faces a Rays team that is 10-2 in their last 12 home games against left-handed starters. 8* (922) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-28-18 | Braves -135 v. Phillies | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. This line came out late due to the Braves pitching situation. Atlanta dropped the final two games in New York which eliminated it from capturing the top spot in the National League but can still grab the No. 2 spot which comes with home field advantage in the NLDS. Despite losing two straight games in New York, Atlanta is still 46-32 on the road which is the best road record in the National League and while it still needs help in grabbing the second spot, the Braves have to do their own part. Atlanta eliminated Philadelphia from playoff contention last week and the Phillies have not been the same since. They have lost eight straight games and going back further, they have lost 11 straight games against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia has been solid at home this season but it has struggled of late with losses in 11 of its 17 games while going 1-9 in its last 10 home games against right-handed starters. The Phillies face Mike Foltynewicz who has been the most consistent starter in the rotation and his 2.88 ERA is fourth best in the National League to go along with a 1.11 WHIP. His numbers are even better on the road and the Braves are 6-2 in his last eight starts against teams with a losing record. After missing most of the season with a nerve problem, Jerad Eickhoff will make his first start of the year. He has n=made two relief appearances and neither have been very good. The Braves are 10-2 in their last 12 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Here, we play against National League home underdogs that average 4.0 to 4.5 rpg with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 10 games going up against a starter with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 53-16 (76.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (905) Atlanta Braves |
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09-27-18 | Braves -112 v. Mets | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with the Mets last night but that was with Jacob deGrom and the starting pitching difference for tonight is over 4.5 runs as far as ERA is concerned. So while last night was all about deGrom, the real Mets come back into play tonight and the results are not good. They are still nine games under .500 at home and despite the win last night, the Mets are 3-16 in 19 home games this season against teams outscoring their opponent by 0.5 or more rpg. Additionally, New York is 1-6 in its last seven games when its opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. If the season ended today, the Cubs would host the Wild Card winner and the Braves would host the Rockies in the two NLDS matchups but Atlanta has only a half-game on Colorado so the final four games of the season will determine home field so these are huge. Atlanta is 30-10 in its last 40 games against National League teams with a slugging percentage of .400 or worse while going 10-4 in its last 14 games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The pitcher referred to earlier is Jason Vargas who has been throwing batting practice all season long. To his credit, he has pitched better as his 8.60 ERA before the All Star break has been nearly cut in half as he has a 4.37 ERA over his last nine starts but that is still nothing to get excited about. Atlanta is hitting .260 on the road against left-handed pitching which is the highest average in the National League. Julio Teheran has been pretty steady this season as proven by his 1.19 WHIP that drops to 1.15 on the road. In four starts against New York this season, he has a 1.69 ERA and 0.98 WHIP and the Mets are 4-15 at home this season against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. 10* (953) Atlanta Braves |
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09-26-18 | A's +107 v. Mariners | Top | 9-3 | Win | 107 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Oakland lost a tough one last night as it allowed a pinch-hit, two-run home run in the 11th inning which eliminated the A's from winning the American League West. They have clinched a Wild Card spot and they are still in the mix for getting to play it at home as they trail the Yankees by 2.5 games so they likely need to win out and hope New York falters over the weekend against the Red Sox. Despite the loss last night, Oakland is 33-11 in its last 44 games against American League teams with an on base percentage .320 or worse. Seattle has struggled down the stretch by going just 8-23 in its last 31 games following a win. While he does not have enough starts to qualify, Edwin Jackson would be a candidate for comeback player of the year. For a team starved with quality starting pitching, Jackson has stepped up big time as he has a 3.18 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 16 starts. For some reason, one team he has struggled against is Texas as he has a 10.03 ERA in three starts against the Rangers and take those out, and his ERA is 2.13 in his other 13 starts. Oakland is 13-1 in his 14 starts against American League teams with an on base percentage of .330 or worse while going 6-0 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in the previous game. Felix Hernandez will be making his final start of the season as he has not pitched since September 8 due to a strained hamstring. Hernandez has struggled much of the year, going 8-13 with a 5.46 ERA, which is more than a full run higher than last season's career-high 4.36 ERA. It is a short line tonight based on who he is and not what he has done and on the season, Seattle is 0-8 in his eight starts against teams averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game. 10* (927) Oakland A's |
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09-26-18 | Tigers v. Twins -135 | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. It was a rare road victory for the Tigers last night which are 26-50 overall while going 16-45 in their last 61 road games against teams with a winning home record. Detroit is hitting just .235 on the road and that includes a .228 average against right-handed pitching and the pitching has not been any better as their 4.95 ERA is sixth worst in baseball. It seems a lot longer than a year ago when the Twins made it to the Wild Card game as they have struggled with consistency. To their credit, they have been solid at home and have been at their best of late. Minnesota is 23-11 in its last 34 home games including a 17-4 record against teams averaging 2.75 or fewer extra base hits. It has been an up and down season for Jake Odorizzi who comes into tonight with a 4.35 ERA but he has been more good than bad. He has allowed five runs or more in six games this season with five of those coming against the Astros, Red Sox, Rays. Yankees and Indians which are five of the top offenses in baseball and the final one was an anomaly against Texas. He has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last nine starts including a quality outing at Detroit last time out. The Twins have won six of his last seven home starts and the Tigers are 15-40 in their last 55 road games against right-handed starters. Matthew Boyd is coming off a very poor start against the Royals which was surprising considering how dominant he has been at home and still has a 2.63 ERA at Comerica Park. The road has been a different story however as he has a 5.52 ERA in 16 starts on the highway with the Tigers going just 5-11 in those games. Additionally, the Tigers are 1-9 in his last 10 road starts against teams with a losing record. 9* (924) Minnesota Twins |
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09-26-18 | Braves v. Mets -160 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Atlanta won its sixth straight game last night and it is just two games behind the Cubs for the best record in the National League so there is still a lot to play for. Unfortunately, they could not avoid the Mets in this series which concludes tomorrow before facing the Phillies over the weekend. The Braves have the best road record in the National League and that is keeping this number lower than it should be. It has been a long season for the Mets but they are a decent 14-9 in September and they are 16-5 in their last 21 games following a loss. This is the final start of the season for Jacob deGrom to impress voters in going after the National League Cy Young. A wrench got thrown into it last night when Max Scherzer became the 17th pitcher in Major League history to record 300 strikeouts in a season and he now has 41 more strikeouts than deGrom and voters will sway his way based on that. deGrom is just 3-6 at home despite a 1.66 ERA and 0.89 WHIP and that comes down to run support and he should get some tonight in his final outing. He has allowed three runs or less in 28 straight starts and has tossed 23 consecutive quality starts. A contrarian aspect to this is the fact the Mets are 0-5 in his five starts against Atlanta despite a 1.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. We are thinking the sixth time is a charm. Sean Newcomb had a great start to the season with a 2.71 ERA through June but it has been a struggle since then as he has posted a 5.92 ERA over his last 13 starts. Here, we play on National League favorites with a moneyline of -150 or more with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse and batting .240 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 161-65 (71.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (904) New York Mets |
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09-26-18 | Astros v. Blue Jays -102 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 12 m | Show | |
**Note 4:07 ET Start** This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Adding a play on Toronto this afternoon after lineups were confirmed. Houston clinched the American League West with its win last night coupled with the Oakland loss in Seattle and while starters usually get the next day off after clinching a division, were not sure of the Houston mindset here since they can still break the franchise record for wins. Instead, they will give most starters the day off and they will be sending Chris Devenski to the hill for his first start of the season after spending the year in the bullpen. This is the final home game of the season for Toronto and while that is always a good edge for the home team, it is even more so today for the Blue Jays. Early this afternoon, the team announced it is going to part ways with manager John Gibbons at the end of the season and it was a smart PR move to announce it now to give the home fans a chance to show appreciation of what he did for the city, taking the Blue Jays to the playoffs in consecutive years. He certainly wants to go out here a winner and so do his players. The starting lineup consists of most starters so Toronto has a big edge there. Sean Reid-Foley is making his seventh start and while he has been inconsistent, facing a depleted lineup is just what he needs for his final start of the season. He has faced the Yankees twice, Cleveland and Tampa Bay, three of the best offenses in baseball. Here, we play on American League home teams allowing 4.9 or more rpg after scoring and allowing five runs or less last four games. This situation is 110-69 (61.5 percent) since 1997. 9* (916) Toronto Blue Jays |
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09-25-18 | Padres v. Giants -110 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. San Francisco has lost five straight games as the normally solid pitching has gone south as it has allowed an average of 6.4 rpg over this stretch after allowing an average of 1.8 rpg in its previous six games. It was a rough end to August for the offense and that has carried over into September as the Giants have now scored three runs or less in 28 of their last 37 games. While that is normally something to steer clear from, the line is taking this into consideration but does not seem to be taking the pitching matchup into consideration. The San Diego offense has not been as bad during the last month sand a half but it is worse overall as it is second to last in hitting and has only scored 10 runs more on the season than the Giants. The Padres got a solid pitching effort from Bryan Mitchell last night as he was a third of an inning away from a complete game shutout but San Diego has not been good in stringing such games together as the Padres are 15-40 in their last 55 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Chris Stratton gets the ball for San Francisco and he has had a decent season that could be better if not for a few bad outings. He is back home where he has a 0.78 ERA over his last three starts and he will be out for payback after San Diego got to him last week. The Giants are 13-4 in his last 17 home starts. Robbie Erlin has gone six straight starts without a quality outing and he has none on the road in six starts where he has a 6.09 ERA. The Padres are 0-6 in his last six starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. 9* (964) San Francisco Giants |
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09-25-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -137 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -137 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Chicago lost the series opener last night as the offense could manage just one run and it has scored three runs or less in nine consecutive home games dating back to August 28. The Cubs have averaged only 1.9 rpg over this nine-game home stretch and while the opposing starter tonight may seem intimidating, that is far from the case. The Cubs are now just a game and a half ahead of Milwaukee in the National League Central and 4.5 games up on St. Louis for the second Wild Card spot with a closing three-game series looming against the Cardinals. The Cubs are 23-8 in their last 31 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates continue to play hard as they close out the season knowing no playoffs in sight. They are 7-2 over their last nine games, but they are still five games under .500 on the road including wins in three straight where they have allowed a total of four runs. The name Chris Archer is keeping this number down way lower than it should be as he has been a bust since coming to Pittsburgh. He has a 4.86 ERA in nine starts and while he is coming off a quality start last time out, it was against the Royals so that is not saying much. He has been decent in pitcher-friendly PNC Park but he has been horrible on the road with a 6.12 ERA and the Pirates have dropped his last four road starts. Mike Montgomery comes back home for the first time since August 2nd as he has made five straight road starts He has allowed three runs or less in all six home starts for a 2.70 ERA and the Pirates are 7-21 in their last 28 road games against left-handed starters. 10* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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09-25-18 | Royals v. Reds -157 | 4-3 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Cincinnati is 3-8 over its last 11 games and while it has had worst win/loss runs, the production has been awful as it has averaged 1.2 rpg over this stretch. The road portion of the Reds schedule is complete where they finished 30-51, which is guaranteed to be the second worst record in the National League and the goal this week is to finish strong at home and creep over .500. The Reds are 36-16 in their last 52 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. After losing the first four games of this roadtrip, the Royals took two of the final three games against Detroit including the series finale Sunday and they remain on the road where they have been awful, possessing the third worst record in all of baseball including going 13-38 in their last 51 road games. We are going to suck it up and lay the price with Matt Harvey who has not been too bad of late. He got lit up by Milwaukee last time out but the Brewers have had his number all season and take away two Milwaukee starts since August 11 and his ERA is 1.96 in his other six starts. Eric Skoglund is coming off a quality start but the last time that happened, he got shelled next time out. The Royals are 0-8 in his last eight starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game and the Reds fall into a situation where we play on National League favorites with a moneyline of -150 or more with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse, after scoring four runs or less three straight games. This situation is 164-60 (73.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (980) Cincinnati Reds |
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09-24-18 | Phillies v. Rockies -145 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB National League Game of the Month. A three-game sweep over Arizona enabled the Rockies to finish 4-5 on their most recent roadtrip which got off to a horrible start. The Rockies remain 1.5 games behind the Dodgers in the National League West while sitting 1.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second National League Wild Card spot. Basically, they need to keep winning and the schedule is in their favor as the final two series are against teams that will not be making the playoffs. Headed back to Coors Field, Colorado is 30-13 in its last 43 home game which is the best winning percentage over that stretch. Additionally, the Rockies are 5-0 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. The Phillies playoff chances ended over the weekend as they were swept against the Braves in Atlanta. It has been a miserable end to the season as the Phillies were 63-48 on August 5th, which was the second best record in the National League, but since then they are 15-29, which is the worst record in the National League over that stretch. Philadelphia is now 15 games under .500 on the road as it has the fourth worst road record in the league and more recent, the Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven games against teams with a winning record. Jon Gray is pitching in place of Tyler Anderson and he is coming off a pair of poor outings but those were against the Diamondbacks and Dodgers. He has been pitching much better after the break as he came in with a 3.41 ERA in his previous nine starts. Zach Eflin has tossed two straight solid outings as well but with no playoff possibility, he will not be stretched out. Aaron Nola was limited to 90 pitches yesterday and the Phillies are not going to take a risk with the young arms. 10* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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09-23-18 | Royals +112 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 112 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Even though the Royals possess the second worst record in baseball, arguably the wrong team is favored here. Kansas City has dropped two of three to open this series and are on a 1-6 run, but it has a distinct edge on the hill this afternoon and can take advantage of a slumping Detroit offense. The Tigers are not playing much better as they are 4-9 over their last 13 games and have lost four straight games following a win. Additionally, the Tigers are 2-8 in their last 10 home games. Brad Keller gets the ball for the Royals and he is coming off an average start against the Pirates but that was the first time in seven starts he allowed more than two earned runs. Overall, he has a 3.17 ERA in 19 starts and the Royals are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit counters with Daniel Norris and he has struggled this season with a 5.71 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six starts. He was able to put together his longest outing of the season last time out but it reached just 5.1 innings and to add to the disadvantage, Detroit is averaging only 3.0 rpg in his starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher that are hitting .260 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better. This situation is 39-18 (68.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (971) Kansas City Royals |
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09-22-18 | Brewers v. Pirates +107 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. As the season winds down, lines are adjusted based on teams that are still vying for playoff spots and we are seeing that here with the Brewers. We won with Milwaukee last night as road favorite but the pitching matchup was in it favor even though the game eventually came down to the bullpen because of a lengthy rain delay. Tonight, the Brewers have no such advantage yet they come in as a favorite as they trail the Cubs by a game and a half in the National League Central and while this is not a must win game, it is being treated like that. The Pirates had their five-game winning streak snapped last night as the bullpen allowed six runs in the sixth inning and seven runs total on four home runs. They hope to get a longer outing from the starter tonight and Trevor Williams will be up to the task. After a rough first half of the season, he has been outstanding of late, posting a 1.10 ERA in his last 11 starts since early July. He has one below average outing in St. Louis and he has allowed no earned runs in seven of the other 10 starts. Zach Davies counter for the Brewers and he is making just his fourth start since May. He has been okay as he has not allowed more than two runs in the three starts but he has lasted only five innings each time. That is not ideal after the bullpen had to go five innings last night. The Pirates are 5-1 in their last six home games against right-handed starters. 10* (904) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-21-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -113 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Take Colorado out of Coors Field and bad things happen to the offense. The Rockies are hitting a MLB-best .284 at home but on the road, they are hitting just .226 which is good for second worst in baseball. It is certainly showing on this roadtrip as they have scored three runs or less in all six games, averaging just 1.5 rpg. While the National League West and the Wild Card playoffs are wide open, no series this weekend is bigger than it is for the Diamondbacks. They can play themselves right back into the playoff chance or by Sunday night, they could be eliminated. Getting off to a strong start is huge and they hand the ball to their ace to do so. Zack Greinke has been great at home with a 2.43 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and in two home starts against Colorado this season, he has allowed just two runs in 13.2 innings. German Marquez has been outstanding since the All Star Break with a 2.78 ERA and 1.02 WHIP in 11 starts, all of which have been quality outings but all that does is keep this number down. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20. This situation is 65-32 (67 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-21-18 | Reds v. Marlins +136 | 0-1 | Win | 136 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Reds took the opener of this series last night to move to 3-4 on this current roadtrip but have not won consecutive games and are just 30-48 on the highway for the season. Miami is six games worse than Cincinnati in the overall record are five games better with home/road marks yet the Marlins come in as significant underdogs. Luis Castillo is partly responsible for that as he has put together four straight solid outings but it is hard to ignore his 5.56 ERA and 1.42 WHIP on the road in 16 starts with just four of those resulting in quality outings. One of the hard to explain phenomenon in baseball is the home/road splits for pitchers as some just feel more comfortable in their own park and at the top of the list is Wei-Yin Chen. He is coming off another poor outing on the road where he allowed five runs in four innings against the Phillies to drop his ERA to 9.29 and WHIP to 1.85 in 12 road starts and he returns home where he has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts. Miami falls into a solid contrarian situation where we play on teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 that are hitting .215 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.00 over his last three starts. This situation is 42-18 (70 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (956) Miami Marlins |
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09-21-18 | Brewers -130 v. Pirates | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. It goes without saying this is a big series for the Brewers as they come in 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but they are 4.5-game clear of the Rockies who sit outside the Wild Card standings. Milwaukee has won six straight series openers. Pittsburgh continues to fight as it has won five straight games, the last four coming by one run. This includes a three-game sweep of the hapless Royals but it also includes a pair of wins in Milwaukee where they held the Brewers offense to three runs but that changes here. Jhoulys Chacin continues to dominate as he has a 3.54 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 32 starts as he has been stable and consistent all season. He has two bad starts against the Dodgers and Cardinals and take those out and his ERA drops to 2.87. Ivan Nova has been on a solid run as well as he has tossed two straight quality outings including one last week in Milwaukee but he is in a tough spot facing a hot offense. The Pirates are 3-13 in his last 16 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20. This situation is 82-34 (70.7 percent) since 1997. 9* (953) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-20-18 | Phillies +137 v. Braves | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is the final home series of the season for the Braves and the biggest series of the season for both teams. Philadelphia and Atlanta meet seven times over the final week and a half of the season including this four-game set that could go a long way in helping decide the National League East. The Braves have a 5.5-game lead over the Phillies so we could see a huge swing over the weekend have not much movement at all but this game is huge for Philadelphia in trying to close the gap. The Phillies took the final two games against the Mets to close out a disappointing homestand at 4-5 and at least gain a little momentum heading into this series. Atlanta has faltered this season in this price range at home as it is 13-22 -17.5 units as a home favorite between -125 and -175 while going 26-16 +11 units in all other games. Additionally, the Braves are 3-12 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning record. Vince Velazquez looks to keep the solid pitching going and while he has electric stuff, he has had a rough stretch since early August which is adding to the underdog price he is getting. The Braves counter with Kevin Gausman who has been a great addition to the rotation since coming over from Baltimore. Atlanta has yet to lose any of his four home starts, which is also affecting the line, but it is hard to look past his only start this season against the Phillies in mid-July when he was still with the Orioles as he allowed five runs on 12 hits in just five innings. 10* (905) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Cubs offense erupted for nine runs last night ss they had the luxury of facing Matt Andriese who was making his first start since July 4 when he was with Tampa Bay. It was a rare outburst as the Chicago offense has been struggling, averaging just 2.8 rpg going into last night and it will be challenged tonight facing a left-handed starter. Arizona has now lost four straight games and 14 of its last 18 games as it has played itself into a situation where it cannot lose anymore. The Diamondbacks trail the Dodgers by six games in the American League West and are also six back in the Wild Card race but the good news is that the next six games are against Colorado and Los Angeles at home so ground can be made up quickly. Robbie Ray has the task of keeping the Cubs at bay and while he has been inconsistent this season, he has been pitching his best of late, posting a 2.74 ERA over his last eight starts including a 1.99 ERA in four home outings. Cole Hamels has been an excellent addition to the rotation but he has had the luxury of facing just one team that is vying for a playoff spot. Here, we play on home teams with a moneyline of -100 to -150 and with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 after having lost eight or more of their last 10 games, playing a winning team. This situation is 51-18 (73.9 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-19-18 | Reds v. Brewers -165 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. For the next 12 days, every game is a playoff game for the Brewers as their loss last night dropped their lead in the National League Wild Card to two games over St. Louis. They are 3.5 games ahead of Colorado so nothing is safe at this point and with a six-game roadtrip looming against teams with winning records, this is a must have. Milwaukee is 20-7 in its 27 games as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season while winning eight of its last nine games following a loss. The Reds are trying to play spoiler at this point as they are now 2-3 on this roadtrip thanks to solid pitching as the offense continues to struggle. They have scored three runs or less in each game while averaging just 1.4 rpg over the five games. Despite the win, Cincinnati has lost 21 of its last 28 road games. Matt Harvey has turned the corner as he has been pitching really well of late. He has posted three straight quality starts and he has allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts. The problem is the Reds have lost all four road starts with the offense being the culprit again, averaging 1.8 rpg. Gio Gonzalez had a solid opening start with the Brewers and while his second one was not nearly as good, this is a good bounceback spot against a struggling offense and he brings in a 2.61 ERA since joining Milwaukee. 8* (956) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-19-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -144 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. This line came out late as an opening line was not posted due to the fact Boston had a chance to clinch the American League East last night but failed to do so in the 3-2 loss. Clearly, the Red Sox are going to clinch the division but the goal for the Yankees is not to let it happen in their house and Boston has not exactly been dominant on the road, going 5-7 over its last 12 games and going back, the Red Sox are 0-5 in their last five road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. The Yankees are pretty much assured of a Wild Card spot as they are eight games ahead of Tampa Bay but they need to keep winning as they are ahead of Oakland by just 2.5 games so they want to keep hold of the top spot. The Yankees are 58-23 in their last 81 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Luis Severino was the early Cy Young favorite but he has been up and down over the last couple months but he loves these spots as the Yankees are 15-2 in his last 17 home starts against teams with a winning record. David Price has become everything Boston had hoped for as he has been pitching great. But he has been inconsistent on the road and facing New York has been a challenge. Since joining Boston, he has made 10 starts against the Yankees and has posted a dreadful 7.81 ERA including a 10.44 ERA in five starts at Yankee Stadium. 9* (970) New York Yankees |
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09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves -135 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Game of the Month. As soon as Mike Foltynewicz walked the bases loaded in the first inning last night, we knew we were in trouble and he put up his shortest and arguably the worst outing of the season. Despite the defeat and the third straight loss at home, the Braves inched closer to clinching the National League East as their magic number was reduced to seven when the Phillies lost to the Mets. Atlanta cannot solely rely other teams however as it has to get out of this funk with less than two weeks left in the regular season. Despite the loss last night, the Braves are 28-14 in their last 42 games against National League teams with an on base percentage .315 or worse. St. Louis moved into sole possession of the second Wild Card spot in the National League with Colorado losing, so each remaining game is big for the Cardinals as well. While the offense exploded last night, pitching remains a concern as they have allowed more than three runs in 13 of their last 16 games, giving up an average of 5.9 rpg. There have been several career resurgences this season from pitchers and Anibal Sanchez is part of that group. He has a 3.01 ERA through 19 starts and this is significant considering he posted a 5.67 ERA over the previous three season in Detroit over 88 starts. The Braves are 7-1 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Austin Gomber had a very good run going but got lit up for seven runs against the Dodgers last time out and he could be in trouble again here as Atlanta is hitting .271 against left-handed pitching this season which is third best in baseball. 10* (906) Atlanta Braves |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -130 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Arizona lost two of three in Houston after losing three of four in Colorado so it was not the roadtrip it envisioned and the Diamondbacks have not won a series since taking two games from the angels back on August 21 and 22. Arizona remains 4.5 games out of first place in the National League West and four games out of the second Wild Card spot. They have won 12 of 17 games after allowing five or more runs and the Diamondbacks are 10-4 in their last 14 home games following a road trip of seven or more days. The Cubs took their series with Cincinnati but did lose Sunday to remain 2.5 games ahead of the Brewers in the National League Central. The offense is struggling and Chicago is just 7-13 this season after batting .200 or worse in a three-game span. Patrick Corbin is having a very solid season with a 3.05 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 30 starts, half of which have come at home and 10 of those resulted in quality outings. He has faced the Cubs at home twice and he allowed one run over 12.2 innings. He is third in the league in strikeouts and that is not ideal for a Chicago team that is showing no life on offense. The Cubs are 2-5 in their last seven games against left-handed starters. Kyle Henricks has been on a decent run but he has not looked great on the road with a 3.89 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 14 starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a moneyline of -110 or higher starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings, with a struggling bullpen whose WHIP is over 2.00 the last five games. This situation is 43-6 (87.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-17-18 | Cardinals v. Braves -127 | 11-6 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Braves lost their last two games over the weekend against the Nationals which followed a six-game winning streak that saw their lead improve to 7.5 games and now sits at 6.5 games over the Phillies. Surprisingly, home field has not been great this season as Atlanta is just two games over .500 here but it keeps the line within reason and this is a big series against another team fighting for the playoffs. St. Louis was able to salvage the series finale against the Dodgers to avoid the four-game sweep and pull back to even with Los Angeles for the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals finally got some good pitching on Sunday as they came into yesterday allowing three runs or less just twice over their previous 15 games, allowing 5.9 rpg over that stretch. Atlanta turns to Mike Foltynewicz and he continues to dominate with a 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 28 starts. He has allowed one run or less in six of his last seven starts and faces a Cardinals team that is 1-4 in their last five games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Miles Mikolas has put together a great season with a 2.99 ERA and 1.12 WHIP but he is starting to fade as he has a career high in innings and fatigue looks to be setting in. the Braves are 12-3 in their last 15 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Here, we play on National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are hitting.255 to .269 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.00 or better. This situation is 33-7 (82.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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09-17-18 | Royals +160 v. Pirates | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. We lost with the Royals yesterday as Jakob Junis came up small by allowing three home runs in three innings before getting the hook. The now go from a slight home favorite to a large underdog and it is took much of an adjustment. Kansas City has been playing pretty well of late and the offense tore it up against Minnesota, averaging 7.5 rpg during the four-game series. The Royals are 9-3 in their last 12 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game and they have won six of their last seven series openers. Pittsburgh has won two straight games to conclude a 3-3 roadtrip to remain at .500 and remain seven games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The problem is there are only 14 games left and five teams are ahead of the Pirates so any chance of a playoff spot is gone. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Brad Keller has made 18 starts and he is by far the best starter in the rotation as he has a 3.04 ERA. Over his last six starts, he has allowed two runs or less in each and has a 1.85 ERA in those games with Kansas City winning five of those games. Joe Musgrove goes for the Pirates and he is having a solid season as well but has struggled of late with a 6.04 ERA over his last four starts. Kansas City falls into a great underdog situation where we play on American League underdogs that are hitting .265 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 to 1.40 going up against a National League starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20. This situation is 28-14 (66.7 percent) since 1997. 9* (973) Kansas City Royals |
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09-16-18 | Rockies -113 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. With its second straight shutout loss, Colorado is now a half-game behind the surging Dodgers in the National League West but it still holds a half-game lead in the National League Wild Card over St. Louis. Even though this is a pitcher-friendly park, this lineup is too good to be held down and based on the pitching matchup, we are getting a ridiculously low price. The Rockies are 6-2 in their last eight games after losing the first two games of a series. The Giants have received two outstanding pitching performances from Chris Stratton and Madison Bumgarner and they could very well get another one today but it is impossible to ignore the fact that they have scored three runs or less in 10 straight games and 16 of their last 18 games. Dereck Rodriguez has had an outstanding rookie season and despite allowing three runs or less in four straight starts, the Giants have lost all four games due to no offense and a bullpen that allowed 13 runs. Antonio Senzatela has been pitching very well since the All Star break and has only one bad start in this stretch. The Rockies are 5-2 in his last seven starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are hitting .250 or worse and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.15 or better going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 5.20. This situation is 114-63 (64.4 percent) since 1997. 9* (911) Colorado Rockies |
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09-16-18 | Twins v. Royals -105 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. While this could typically qualify for a contrarian play based on the Royals having won the first four gamers of this series, we will back Kansas City to get the sweep as the price is too good in this matchup. The Royals have won five of their last six games and 14 of their last 20, They will be trying to close out their first four-game sweep since taking four straight from the Twins in August of 2016. Minnesota are now 4-10 in September and with the exception of two 10-run outbursts, it has averaged 2.7 rpg in the other 12 games. The Twins are 8-21 in their last 29 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Jakob Junis has been dealing as he has a 1.88 ERA and 0.62 WHIP in his last three starts and he has allowed two runs or less in seven straight outings. Kyle Gibson has had a solid season for Minnesota but he has been inconsistent of late and he has taken the loss in four straight games. He is getting just 3.1 rpg of support on the road and the Twins are 4-11 in his last 15 starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kansas City falls into a solid situation as we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season but with a recent WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 39-12 (76.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) Kansas City Royals |
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09-16-18 | White Sox -113 v. Orioles | 4-8 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 9 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We won with the White Sox yesterday behind a strong pitching performance from Reynaldo Lopez and we will back them again today in another strong advantage but with another small number. Chicago has won three straight games and despite being 11 games under .500 on the road, the White Sox are 14-5 in their last 19 road games. The Orioles cannot wait for this season to end as they continue to showcase young players after falling a ridiculous 64 games under .500. they have lost eight of their last nine games and 12 of their last 14, averaging a mere 2.7 rpg. Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Chicago and while his numbers are gaudy, he has turned a corner thanks to a tweak in his mechanics and a renewed pitch sequence. Five of his last six starts have been quality outings and the White Sox are 7-1 in his last eight road starts against teams with a losing record. David Hess has shown some improvements as well but not to the same extent. He has made 16 starts and Baltimore has lost 13 of those with part of the problem being bad pitching and part of the problem being no run support. Chicago falls into a great situation where we play against American League teams averaging 4.2 rpg or worse with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20. This situation is 38-13 (74.5 percent) since 1997. 9* (913) Chicago White Sox |
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09-15-18 | White Sox -120 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Chicago has won two straight games after a seven-game losing streak which killed momentum from a nice 14-6 run for the young White Sox as they vow to continue to play strong to end the season. Despite being 12 games under .500 on the road, the White Sox are 13-5 in their last 18 road games. It has been a brutal season for the Orioles which are 2-11 over their last 13 games and are almost an unfathomable 63 games under .500. While it was a rebuilding year, no one expected this as they have been outscored by 252 runs overall. Yet they come in as a slight underdog despite no offense and a major pitching disadvantage. Yefry Ramirez will be making his tenth start of the season as he comes back out of the bullpen for a spot start. He has pitched well in relief but in his nine starts, he has a 7.34 ERA which consists of no quality outings. Reynaldo Lopez counters for Chicago and he is on a solid run as he has tossed three straight quality outings, posting a 0.90 ERA and 0.80 WHIP in those games. Here, we play on American League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with an on-base percentage of .320 or worse and a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against a team with a bullpen WHIP of 1.55 or worse. This situation is 89-54 ATS (62.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (969) Chicago White Sox |
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09-15-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +126 | 17-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. St. Louis has dropped the first two games of this series to make it three straight losses and with the dodgers three-game winning streak, the two are tied for the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals had won three in a row prior to this but with a chance to fall out of the playoff picture, we expect a rebound on Saturday, at an underdog price. The Cardinals are 4-1 in their last five games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles also moved to within a half-game of Colorado in the National League West as the winning streak comes on the heels of a 3-5 run but we feel that the wrong team is favored today. John Gant looks to stop the bleeding and he is having a great season with a 3.16 ERA and 1.21 WHIP through 16 starts. He has allowed two runs or less in seven straight starts, posting a 1.60 ERA in the process and despite what is thought to be a scary Dodgers offense, they are hitting just .223 in their last 10 games against right-handed pitching. Rich Hill is having a similar season to Gant yet comes in as the favorite despite tossing just two quality outings over his last seven starts. He has a 4.35 ERA over this stretch and the Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight home games against left-handed starters. 9* (952) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-14-18 | Rockies v. Giants +126 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 126 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Colorado is coming off a very important series win over Arizona as it took three of four to maintain its lead in the National League West at two games over the Dodgers. Despite being 16 games over .500, the Rockies are just +5 in run differential as they have been fortunate to win a lot of one-run games along the way. They have been a solid road team all season and going back to mid-August, this is their seventh straight game as road favorites, having gone just 3-3 in those previous six. San Francisco has been in a major funk as it has lost 11 straight games. The pitching has been okay during this stretch but the offense has been downright offensive as the Giants have scored three runs or less in 10 of those games including eight in a row. The last time they scored more than three runs came against the Rockies and Tyler Anderson who has struggling in a major way. He was cruising along with a 3.57 ERA through his first 21 starts but over his last eight starts, he has posted a 9.42 ERA with only one quality start over that stretch. Colorado has lost eight of his last nine starts and in three starts at AT&T Park, he has a 7.04 ERA. Chris Stratton has been up and down but has put together a solid stretch where he has a 2.84 ERA over his last four starts. The Giants are 8-0 in his last eight home starts against winning teams. Here, we play on National League home underdogs that are hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.50 or worse over his last 10 starts. This situation is 33-18 (64.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (912) San Francisco Giants |
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09-14-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -130 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Milwaukee took two of three games against the Cubs to start the week to pull to within a game of Chicago in the National League Central but that was expanded to a game and a half with the Cubs win yesterday. The Brewers are back home where they have won three straight, five of six and their 45-27 home record is second best in the National League. Additionally, Milwaukee is 18-5 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Brewers do not play the Cubs again this season which is good and bad as far as gaining ground but the good news is that 12 of their last 15 games are against teams with a losing record. The Pirates are 18-39 in their last 57 road games against teams with a winning record. The new environment has already paid off for Gio Gonzalez who was dealt from Washington last week and in his first start with the Brewers, we allowed no earned runs and three hits in 5.2 innings against the Giants. His August in Washington was his worst month ever as he posted a 7.47 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in six starts and a change of scenery was needed. He is far from elite but that helps to keep the number within reason in a spot where every game counts and where the home/road record split sits at 12.5 games. Chris Archer has not been as fortunate in his new surroundings. He has a 5.24 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in seven starts and opposing batters are hitting a healthy .270 against him. He was extremely solid from 2013-2015 and while he is still considered an ace, his numbers do not show that as since 2016, he has a 4.18 ERA over 91 starts and that is hardly ace-like. 9* (908) Milwaukee Brewers |
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09-14-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -160 | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. With 17 games remaining in the season, this weekend series could determine the playoff fate of the Phillies. Just 2.5 games behind Atlanta one week ago, Philadelphia is now 7.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East following its fifth straight loss coupled with five straight wins for Atlanta. This is a sweepable series and it likely has to take place to go along with some help. The Phillies are 20-5 in their last 25 home games against teams outscored by one or more rpg on the season and 14-2 in their last 16 games revenging a one run loss this season. The Marlins took two of three against Philadelphia last week but has dropped five of six games on this current roadtrip to fall to a National League worst 23-48 on the road. They have lost 12 of their last 15 series openers and hand the ball to Wei-Yin Chen who has some of the most drastic home/road splits in baseball. He is an All Star at home with a 1.77 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 12 starts but when he leaves Marlins Park, he has a 9.13 ERA and 1.82 WHIP over 11 starts, with only one of those being a quality outing. That came against the Orioles, the worst team in baseball. Zach Eflin has not exactly been lighting things up but he has been pretty solid at home with a 3.81 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. In two starts against Miami this season, he has a 2.57 ERA and 0.50 WHIP. Here, we play on National League favorites with a moneyline of -150 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and 7.50 over his last three starts. This situation is 54-11 (83.1 percent) since 1997. 8* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-13-18 | Cubs -124 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. This is a makeup game from the game that was rained out on Sunday and it is a big one for the Cubs. They are coming off a series loss against the Brewers and saw their lead shrink to one game in the National League Central so this one game trip means a lot at this stage of the season. The Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is coming off a three-game sweep of the Phillies in Philadelphia to make it five straight wins but it is likely too little, too late for the Nationals. They are back home where there has been no home field advantage this summer as they are just one game over .500. Mike Montgomery has been solid with a 3.85 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in 15 starts and those numbers improve on the road. He benefits for this being his first start against the Nationals and one of his strengths is he keeps the ball on the ground and has allowed only seven home runs this season. Washington is just 12-21 against pitchers who gives up 0.5 or fewer home runs per start this season. Joe Ross counters for the Nationals and he looks to get in his first full start in 14 months. He rejoined the rotation last week, but his start, which was his first since undergoing Tommy John surgery in July of 2017, was rained out after just 1.2 innings. Coming off an injury like that, we are not sure what to expect and the Cubs are 12-5 in their last 17 games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Chicago Cubs |
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09-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -130 | 3-10 | Push | 0 | 6 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. The Rockies took Game three of this series last night and they can provide more separation this afternoon by taking this four-game set. They maintained their game and a half lead in the National League West over the Dodgers while extending the lead to 3.5 games over Arizona. Colorado looks to keep the offensive momentum going as the Rockies are 21-7 in their last 28 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Arizona is in the midst of a prolonged slump at the wrong time as it is 6-13 over its last 19 games, going from first place to third place and the offense has been the issue. This is a loaded lineup that has underperformed all season and during this recent skid, the Diamondbacks have averaged just 3.3 rpg during this 19-game stretch. Kyle Freeland gets the ball for the Rockies and he has been exceptional all season with a 2.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP and he has been better at home with a 2.21 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 13 starts. Colorado lost his first start at Coors but is 11-1 since. Clay Buchholz has had a career resurgence in Arizona and he does not shoe signs of slowing down. The problem? This is his first start at Coors Field. Here, we play on National League home favorites that are hitting .255 to .269 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up again teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This situation is 33-7 (82.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (952) Colorado Rockies |
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09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. Like Tampa Bay, Seattle is 8.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and while getting there seems unlikely, the Mariners have to keep fighting because you just never know. They are coming off a tough loss last night as they managed only one run and gave up the winning run in the top of the ninth inning. It has been a poor homestand as they are just 3-4 although three of those games were against the Yankees. Seattle needs to close out strong as it heads out on a 10-game divisional roadtrip after today. San Diego is 4-3 on this current roadtrip and the win last night was a rare one against a left-handed starter as the Padres are 16-41 in their last 57 road games against left-handed starters while going 13-32 against left-handed starters this season. The bad news is they face another one and one that is red hot as Wade LeBlanc, who is having a great season overall, has posted a 0.47 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over his last three starts after a couple of rough starts in August. Those two bad outings came against the Astros and Dodgers however and he gets a great matchup tonight. Joey Lucchesi counters for San Diego and he is having a solid rookie season with a 3.59 ERA and 1.265 WHIP and while his numbers are better on the road, he gets no run support and the Padres are 1-4 in his last five road starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (930) Seattle Mariners |
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09-12-18 | Indians v. Rays -102 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. With 18 games to play, Tampa Bay is 8.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. Unlikely to get there for sure but not impossible, just ask the 2007 Colorado Rockies. The Rays need help from Oakland along the way but they can only control themselves which makes the loss last night a tough one as they fell 2-0 against Shane Bieber after beating Corey Kluber the night before. They have won four straight games following a loss and are 14-3 in their last 17 home games against teams with a winning record. The magic number is 3 for the Indians to win the American League Central and there is not a whole lot to play for at this point as the goal is to stay healthy and keep the arms fresh before facing Houston is the ALDS. Blake Snell continues his dominating season as he has a 2.06 ERA and 1.01 WHIP and he has been even better at home with a 1.23 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 12 outings. Tampa Bay has won his last six starts against winning teams while the Indians are 1-6 in their last seven games against left-handed starters. Carlos Carrasco has been up and down his last few starts and he has the memory of facing Tampa Bay two weeks ago where he allowed five runs on nine hits in 6.1 innings. 9* (918) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-11-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -132 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee has won four straight games and coupled with the Cubs three-game skid, the Brewers have moved just one game back in the National League Central. They are two games back in the loss column which is the problem but if anything, they do have a firm hold on the first spot in the National League Wild Card. Milwaukee is still just 38-35 on the road and the Brewers are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. The Cubs lost for just the 25th time at home which are the fewest losses of any team in the National League. Chicago has had its issues with lefties of late but have been crushing righties and the Cubs are 21-6 in their last 27 home games against right-handed starters. They face Jhoulys Chacin who is putting together a career season as he has tied his career win total and currently has his best WHIP ever. Since August, he has been laboring however and he has been fortunate he has not allowed more runs as he has a 1.41 WHIP over his last seven starts. After a pair pf gems against the Cubs earlier in the season, they got to him for three runs on seven hits in just 4.2 innings last week. Jose Quintana has put together two straight quality starts and has allowed two runs or less in four straight games following a rough stretch before that. With the exception of one bad outing last month, he has dominated the Brewers since coming to Chicago, posting a 1.05 in the other six starts. The Cubs are 16-5 in his last 21 home starts and going back, he excels later in the season as his teams are 19-4 in his last 23 home games in the second half of the season. 10* (958) Chicago Cubs |
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09-11-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -133 | 3-1 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 39 m | Show | |
**DH Game One 3:05 ET** This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Tuesday Supreme Annihilator. The Phillies are coming off a dreadful 2-4 roadtrip against the bottom two teams in their division as they now trail Atlanta by 4.5 games in the National League East. They are back home where they are 43-26 and this includes a record of 34-15 as home favorites of -110 or higher. Washington took two of three against the Cubs to conclude a 4-5 homestand. The Nationals hit the road where they have dropped 10 of their 15 games on the highway. We played against Erick Fedde yesterday but the game was rained out. He is making his second start since getting activated from the 60-day disabled list and taking the place of Gio Gonzalez. His first outing back was not a good one as he allowed four runs in four innings against the Cardinals. He has made seven starts this season and only one of those was a quality outing. While Washington has won both of his road starts, he has an 8.10 ERA as he has benefited from over the top run support. Jake Arrieta has been scratched and Nick Pivetta takes over this afternoon and it is a fairly even tradeoff as this is more of a play against Fedde anyway. Pivetta has been better at home than on the road with a 4.28 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Washington ate him up by scoring seven runs in 1.2 innings in his last start against them in June but the coaching staff made a great move and put him in two days later where he tossed a scoreless inning to get past it mentally. Here, we play on teams with a winning percentage between .501 and .540 off a loss to a division rival as a favorite, playing a team with a winning percentage between .460 and .499. This situation s 45-21 (68.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (982) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-09-18 | Phillies v. Mets -159 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Not much has gone right for the Mets this season but they continue to play hard and compete, with the last month being pretty successful. They have been one of the worst home teams in baseball but that helps us with value in this particular situation. The Phillies are now 3.5 games behind Atlanta in the National League East as well as 3.5 games behind the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot. They have dropped five of their last seven games and they caught a tough break this weekend in having to face Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom. The fact that deGrom is only 8-8 and the Mets are 12-16 in his 27 starts is the reason this line is as low as it is because a pitcher with his numbers should be priced much higher. Barring a complete meltdown, he should win the National League Cy Young as his 1.68 ERA is top in the league by a wide margin. He has allowed three runs or less in 25 straight games with the last 20 being quality outings. Vince Velazquez is a quality pitcher but he has not been good of late with a 5.75 ERA over his last five starts. Here, we play against National League underdogs with a moneyline of +150 or more that are hitting .255 or worse including a .225 average or lower over their last 10 games going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 2.70 or better. This situation is 68-13 (84 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (952) New York Mets |
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09-09-18 | Cardinals -114 v. Tigers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We lost a tough one with the Cardinals last night as they rallied from a 3-0 deficit to tie the game in the ninth inning only to end up losing in the bottom half of the frame on a wild pitch. St. Louis has now dropped five of its last seven games to fall two and a half games behind Milwaukee for the first Wild Card spot in the National League and is fortunate to still be a game up on the Dodgers. Despite losses in the first two games of this series, the Cardinals possess the second best road record in the National League, winning 12 of their last 16. Detroit has won four straight games as the pitching has been spot on but comes to an end eventually and that thought is today. Michael Fulmer has been a tough luck pitcher all season as Detroit has given him only 2.7 rpg through 22 starts but he has not helped matters with his 4.57 ERA. Going back, the Tigers are 6-23 in his last 29 starts. John Gant has pitched very well since entering the rotation and after a poor outing against the Pirates to open August, he has posted a 1.38 ERA over his last six starts. The Cardinals fall into a great situation where we play against American League teams with an OBP of .310 or worse and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs last outing going up a National League starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.25 or better. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (979) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-08-18 | Yankees v. Mariners +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the SEATTLE MARINERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Yankees got a gem last night from Masahiro Tanaka who tossed eight shutout innings in a 4-0 victory. They improved to 40-29 on the road but overall, it has been a pretty average stretch as New York is just 5-6 over its last 11 games as is 8.5 games behind Boston in the American League East. A Wild Card spot is likely but the one team that can make things interesting in Seattle which is 6.5 games back following the loss last night. The Mariners fell to 2-2 on this current homestand but are still 40-30 at home and have won four straight games following a loss while the Yankees are 4-13 in their last 17 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Felix Hernandez is far from the ace he used to be but he is in a good spot here at home where he has pitched much better than on the road. He has always pitched well against the Yankees and one of his better road starts this season came in New York. Lance Lynn was exceptional in his first two starts with the Yankees but he has been awful since then. In his last four outings, he has a 9.50 ERA and all four of those starts came against teams not even sniffing the postseason. He has struggled in opposing ball parks all season as he has a 6.42 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 13 road starts and while most of those came with the Twins, he cannot be trusted in the role of a road favorite even though it is a short number. 10* (928) Seattle Mariners |
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09-08-18 | Cardinals -157 v. Tigers | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Supreme Annihilator. We won with Detroit last night in a contrarian spot play but we will be backing St. Louis tonight in a nice bounce back spot with a lot at stake. The Cardinals fell a game and a half behind Milwaukee for the second Wild Card spot in the National League but more important, they saw their lead shrink to a game over the Dodgers and two games over the Diamondbacks. Detroit moved to over .500 at home with the win last night and the Cardinals are 8-2 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Tigers have won three straight games as the offense has scored 23 runs over this stretch. This can be considered an anomaly as Detroit had scored three runs or less in nine of its previous 13 games. The pitching matchup favors Jack Flaherty who is having an excellent season with a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 23 starts. His home/road splits are nearly identical which is important in the home stretch and the Cardinals have won five of his last six starts while the Tigers are 15-36 in their last 51 games against right-handed starters. Matthew Boyd is very good at home with a 2.56 ERA and 0.97 WHIP across 12 starts but digging in shows that 11 of those games came against non-playoff teams. St. Louis can take advantage and the Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 games against left-handed starters. 8* (929) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-07-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -151 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We lost with Arizona last night in a tough way as it rallied from a 4-0 deficit and eventually tied the game in the ninth inning before losing in extra innings. The Diamondbacks are now 2.5 games behind the Rockies in the National League West with time running out but this is a good spot as they are 9-1 in their last 10 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Atlanta has a 3.5-game lead once again in the National League East over the Phillies but despite the win last night, the Braves are 11-22 in their last 33 games against teams with a winning record including 1-5 over their last six games. Patrick Corbin looks to cool down the Braves offense and while he has been great all season, he has posted a 2.35 ERA over his last six starts. The Diamondbacks are 5-0 in his last five starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game while Atlanta has dropped five straight games against left-handed starters. Kevin Gausman has been a huge pickup for the Braves as he has yet to allow more than three runs his six starts since coming over from Baltimore. He has a 1.50 ERA on the road but he has yet to face a team fighting for the playoffs and this will be his first ever start at one of the best hitters parks in baseball. 9* (964) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-07-18 | Cardinals v. Tigers +138 | 3-5 | Win | 138 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. This is the ultimate contrarian play as we back a team 26 games under .500 going up against a team that is currently sitting in a Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals took two of three against the Nationals with the offense going off for 18 runs over the last two games helping snap a three-game losing streak. Surprisingly, this has not been an ideal spot for St. Louis as it is 5-11 this season when playing against poor teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. Detroit has also won two in a row, scoring an identical 18 runs in the process which concluded a 4-5 roadtrip. The Tigers are 23-49 on the road which is third worst in the American League but they are a respectable .500 at home where they are the sixth most profitable team in baseball with the help of going 10-5 as a home underdog between +125 and +175. The other contrarian aspect of this is going against Cardinals pitcher Austin Gomber who has yet to lose in a Cardinals uniform. They are 7-0 in his seven starts and while his 2.77 ERA looks good, his 1.32 WHIP is average and that balloons to 1.43 on the road. Detroit is second in the American League against left-handed pitching, hitting .263 and trailing only Houston. Daniel Norris is back for his second start since coming off the disabled list and his first one was a solid one against the Yankees. 9* (980) Detroit Tigers |
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09-07-18 | Phillies -145 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Phillies are playing themselves right out of the playoffs as they dropped two of three in Miami and are now 1-4 to start the month. They were in great position in the division but after losing 18 of their 28 games, they are 3.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East. This continues a stretch of 12 of 15 games against the Mets and Marlins so Philadelphia has to take advantage and especially tonight with their ace on the hill. The Mets closed their roadtrip with a 4-1 record but they have been a much worse team at home as they are 11 games under .500 and possess the second worst home record in the National League. Aaron Nola has been dominant at home with the Phillies going 12-2 in his 14 starts but his numbers are just as good on the road and they are 11-1 in his last 12 starts against teams with a losing record. Steven Matz has put together a pair of quality outings but this is not a good spot as the Mets are 2-9 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a winning record. Philadelphia falls into a great situation where we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 that are hitting .255 or worse with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 3.70 and 4.20. This situation is 81-33 (71.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (957) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-06-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -150 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Atlanta was in great position to salvage the series finale against Boston yesterday as it held a 7-1 lead going into the eighth inning and the Red Sox did it again by scoring eight runs over the final two innings to pull off the 9-8 win. That type of loss is tough to overcome and the Braves head west for a seven-game roadtrip that starts off in a tough spot tonight. Arizona had a rare Wednesday off day after a 6-0 shutout of the Padres on Tuesday but the Diamondbacks fell two games behind Colorado in the National League West following the Rockies fifth straight win last night. This is the start of 20 straight games against teams ahead of them in the playoffs so the schedule is not in their favor and tonight is the type of game they have to take advantage of. Zack Greinke gets the ball as he looks to continue his home domination where he has a 2.16 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts, allowing two runs or less in 13 of those. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in a spot like this over the last few years as his teams are 100-30 as favorites of -150 or more. Anibal Sanchez looks to stop the bleeding for the Braves as he looks to continue his improbable comeback. He has a 2.98 ERA through 19 starts but Atlanta is 2-7 over his last nine outings as he has received three runs or less in eight of those and that should continue tonight. Arizona falls into a spectacular situation where we play on favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a slugging percentage of .390 or worse over their last 20 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better over his last 10 games. This situation is 38-5 (88.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (906) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-05-18 | Giants v. Rockies -150 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Rockies won their fourth straight game behind another solid outing from German Marquez as they kept their lead in the National League West at a half-game over Los Angeles. They are playing for their playoff lives as it is a possibility that a Wild Card team will not come out of this division. Colorado has been playing better at home after a slow start and they have been able to keep momentum rolling as the Rockies are 22-7 in their last 29 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Giants are playing out the final few weeks as they are no longer a part of the playoff pitcher following their fourth consecutive loss. They fell to 29-42 on the road and have not dropped eight of their last 10 on the highway. The offense has been dreadful over the last five weeks and the Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Antonio Senzatela has been serviceable for Colorado as hew has made only two bad starts in eight games and those came against two solid offenses. He has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five starts. Anthony Suarez is coming off a pair of seven-inning shutout efforts but those were at home and he now faces the third best lefty-hitting team in baseball. The Rockies are 11-3 in their last 14 games against left-handed starters. 8* (962) Colorado Rockies |
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09-05-18 | Mets +175 v. Dodgers | 7-3 | Win | 175 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. It has been a lost season for the Mets but they have been playing good baseball of late and are catching a great price tonight. They had won three straight games but were unable to keep it going behind Jason Vargas as he had a 4-0 lead but gave it all back in the third and fourth innings. The Mets are 10-3 in their last 13 games following a loss. The Dodgers remain a half-game behind the Rockies in the National League West as they improved to 4-2 on this current homestand. They are just four games over .500 at home and their -23.6 units are second worst in all of baseball. The big bright spot for New York has been the pitching of Jacob deGrom which has kept Zack Wheeler in the shadows and that is good for betting purposes. He has allowed two runs or less in eight straight starts while posting a solid 53:10 K:BB ratio. Run support has been an issue here and there but the spot is good as they Mets are 5-0 in his last five starts following a team loss in their previous game while going 6-1 in his last seven starts following a quality outing in his last start. The oft-injured Hyun-Jin Ryu looks to be healthy after a strong August where he posted a 2.38 ERA over four starts. That is a big reason this line is so big and we will take a shot in what is not a disadvantage for the Mets. 9* (957) New York Mets |
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09-05-18 | Rays -127 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -127 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. While making a run at the playoffs will not happen for Tampa Bay, it has to be encouraged for the season it has had. The Rays are now 12 games over .500 following their fourth straight win and are 13-2 over their last 15 games. The offense has been hitting the ball better but it is the pitching that has led the way as Tampa Bay has allowed an average of 2.5 rpg over the 15-game stretch. With the win last night, the Rays are 6-0 in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Toronto is going the opposite way as it has lost seven of its last nine games and it is one of just seven teams that has a scoring differential of more than -100. The Blue Jays have been better at home than on the road but with all of the trades and call-ups, there is not much chemistry going on right now. Toronto is 3-8 in its last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. The bullpen pitching approach has been working for Tampa Bay but so has the insertion of Tyler Glasnow into the rotation. Since coming from Pittsburgh, the Rays eased him in and he is now being stretched out and it is working as he has a 3.23 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in six starts. Aaron Sanchez has allowed 11 runs in two starts since coming back from the disabled list but the offense has bailed him out, something we do not expect here. The Rays are 16-5 in their last 21 games against right-handed starters. 10* (965) Tampa Bay Rays |
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09-04-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -168 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona was coming off a poor roadtrip where it went 2-5 including three straight 3-2 losses against the Dodgers to close it out and it could not take advantage of San Diego coming to town last night. The Diamondbacks put up their fourth straight game of scoring two runs and with the loss, they are 1.5 games behind the Rockies in the National League West. This is the last game of a short two-game series and the next six series are against Atlanta, Colorado, Houston, Chicago, Colorado and Los Angeles so things will not be getting any easier. The Padres possess the worst home record in the National League but the road record is not much better and going back, this is not an ideal spot as they are 15-40 in their last 55 road games against left-handed starters. Robbie Ray gets the call for Arizona and he has been very average. He has not been able to get through six innings since late July but he has allowed an average of just 1.8 rpg over his last five starts. The Diamondbacks are 20-6 in his last 26 starts against team with a losing record. Joey Lucchesi is having a solid rookie season but he is stuck on a team in a tough division and the results have proved it as the Padres are 0-8 in his last eight starts within the National League West. Additionally, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -150 or more in the second half of the season that average between 4.0 and 4.5 rpg against a starter with an ERA of 3.70 or better. This situation is 79-20 (79.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (912) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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09-04-18 | Angels v. Rangers -112 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Los Angeles is 3-2 on this current roadtrip following a series opening win last night behind a solid outing from Matt Shoemaker, who made his first start since the season opener, and the bullpen as it allowed just one run. the offense continues to struggle however as the angels have scored three runs or less in four straight games and nine of their last 11. Despite the win last night, the Angels have lost 10 of their last 14 divisional games. Texas could not keep the momentum going after scoring 18 runs on Sunday as it managed to plate just one run yesterday but we expect the Rangers to bounce back tonight. The Rangers are 4-1 in their last five games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game and while home field has not been great this season, Texas is still a solid 37-20 in its last 57 home games as a favorite of -150 or less. Additionally, the Rangers are 11-5 in their last 16 home games against teams with a losing record. Mike Minor has been a pleasant surprise to the Rangers rotation as his 4.33 ERA looks average but backs it up with a 1.11 WHIP through 24 starts. His pitching has been better at home than on the road, and by a big margin, so the price here is a good one. Andrew Heaney is coming off one of his best starts of the season but this is not an ideal situation as in three starts in Texas, he has a 10.39 ERA. Here, we play on American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 and with a WHIP of 1.00 or better over his last five starts. This situation is 37-12 (75.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Texas Rangers |
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09-04-18 | Red Sox v. Braves +116 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Boston took the opener of this three-game set yesterday with an 8-2 victory thanks to pulling away late to increase their lead in the American League East to 8.5 games over the Yankees. The foot has started to come off the gas pedal and it has been a pretty average run as the Red Sox are just 7-8 over their last 15 games while going 1-4 in their last five road games against teams with a winning home record. Atlanta remains four games up on the Phillies in the National League East as Philadelphia has dropped three straight games. The Braves fell to 3-4 on this current homestand and their two runs on Monday matched their low in the seven games but they bounced back with a win next time out in the first instance and going back, they are 7-1 in their last eight games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Sean Newcombe is coming off a poor start and he has been in a big time slump since mid-August so facing the Red Sox may seem daunting but he is very solid overall and Boston is hitting just .241 on the road against left-handed starters. Additionally, the Red Sox are 3-7 in their last 10 road games against left-handed starters. Rick Porcello counters for Boston and he too has been in a tough stretch as he has just one quality outing over his last five starts. While he has dominated during the day, he has a 4.65 ERA in 23 starts under the lights with just 11 of those resulting in quality outings. The Red Sox are 1-5 in his last six starts when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. 9* (930) Atlanta Braves |
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09-03-18 | Mets +120 v. Dodgers | 4-2 | Win | 120 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Dodgers took three of four games against Arizona to move into first place in the National League West by a half-game over the Rockies and a full game over the Diamondbacks. This is where they expected to be when the season began but it has been a struggle to get here and they have been fortunate the bullpen has held its own the last few games as they were able to win the final three games against Arizona all by identical 3-2 scores. New York took two of three in San Francisco so it brings in some momentum and going back, the Mets are 10-1 in their last 11 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. We backed Jacob deGrom in his last start and he came through once again but the offense let him and us down with another loss. He has dominated the Dodgers throughout his career and they have a tough task facing him tonight as the Cy Young candidate continues to dominate. He has tossed 19 straight quality starts and the magic number here is three as it was last time out but did not pan out. The Mets are 11-4 when they score three runs or more in his starts while going 0-12 when they do not. Alex Wood has been good this season but nothing spectacular with a 3.42 ERA including a 3.61 ERA at home in 13 starts where the Dodgers have gone just 5-8. While the Mets are considered a bad offense, they are hitting .254 on the road which is fifth best in the National League. Additionally, the Dodgers are 0-4 in his last four home starts. 9* (961) New York Mets |
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09-03-18 | Reds v. Pirates -132 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. The Reds won in extra innings yesterday despite getting outhit and they took the final two games against the Cardinals to win their first road series in six weeks. This is a great time to go against them as Anthony DeSclafani lasted only 3.2 innings so the bullpen was nearly maxed out yesterday which puts added pressure on Matt Harvey this afternoon. Despite the win, the Reds have the second worst road record in the National League and they have dropped 15 of their last 20 games on the highway. The Pirates are all but done in the National League Wild Card race following a 3-6 roadtrip but they head home where they have a winning record and are laying a short number in what is a huge pitching advantage. Trevor Williams has quietly put together a very strong season as he has a 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 26 starts and he has been consistent as his home and road splits are nearly identical. He has been at his best most recent as over his last eight starts, he has posted a 0.75 ERA, allowing one run or less in seven of those games. The Pirates are 6-1 in his last seven home starts against teams with a losing record. Matt Harvey had a decent three-game stretch but was shelled by the Brewers in his last game and he hits the road where he has just one quality outings in 11 starts. The competition has not mattered as the Reds are 1-6 in their last seven road games against teams with a losing record. 10* (956) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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09-03-18 | Phillies -141 v. Marlins | 1-3 | Loss | -141 | 3 h 50 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. We were on the Phillies and Aaron Nola yesterday and it did not go well as pitched okay, allowing just five hits while striking out 11, but three of those hits were home runs which is an anomaly for him as he allowed only eight homers on the whole season prior to that. The lead is now four games for the Braves in the National League East and Philadelphia is in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs. This is a big stretch as 12 of the next 15 games are against the Marlins and Mets and the winning starts today. The Phillies are 12-4 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Miami has lost five of its last six games and is just one game from possessing the worst record in the National League. The Marlins are 5-17 in their last 22 games against teams with a winning record. Vince Velazquez had a very inconsistent August as his last four starts were not good but he did face quality opposition. He has a 3.02 ERA on the road in 12 starts and he owns the Marlins with a 2.25 ERA over eight career starts. Jose Urena has had a bad season and is coming off his worst month where he posted a 5.33 ERA in five starts. He opened the season with a quality start against the Phillies in his first outing against them but that was back in May and since then, he has posted an 11.00 ERA in two starts. The Marlins are 3-15 in his last 18 starts following a team loss in their previous game. 9* (953) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-02-18 | Pirates v. Braves -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. We won with the Braves last night and we will back them again tonight in another great pitching situation. They snapped a three-game slide and saw their lead in the National League East grow to three games over the Phillies and with Boston coming to town for three games, this has turned into a big series ending game. After the victory last night, the Braves are 9-2 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Pittsburgh continued its offensive woes as it managed only three runs which was the 14th time is their last 18 games they have scored three runs or less. Pittsburgh is hitting just .209 over its last five games and going back, the Pirates are 17-41 in their last 58 road games against teams with a winning home record. We used Julio Teheran in his last start and quite frankly, he stunk, but the offense carried him in a 9-5 win over Tampa Bay. We will tail him again as he was solid heading into that outing as he posted three straight quality starts and he allowed three runs or less in five straight home outings. He ha dominated the Pirates in four starts since 206 as he has a 0.33 ERA. Nick Kingham returns to the rotation after being demoted in early August and them being recalled last week to work out of the bullpen. As a starter, he has struggled with a 5.02 ERA in 12 starts. Here, we play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 70-28 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (914) Atlanta Braves |
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09-02-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -152 | 6-4 | Loss | -152 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. The Cardinals offense could not solve Luis Castillo last night as it managed only two hits, with one of those by a pitcher, in a 4-0 loss that dropped them 4.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. They are 3-2 on this homestand and the Saturday loss was a disappointment after a 22-6 August that has put them in first place in the Wild Card race, possessing the second best record in the National League. It was a rare win for the Reds which came into yesterday on a 1-8 run in their previous nine games as the pitching continues to be a detriment. The Castillo gem was an aberration as in their previous six games, they allowed an average of 8.8 rpg. Going back, the Reds are 3-13 in their last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Luke Weaver is making a return to the rotation after being demoted to the bullpen and this is a golden opportunity to prove he belongs. While his last starts were not perfect, they were far from horrible in most cases as in his last seven outings, he did not allow more than three earned runs. Anthony DeSclafani heads to the mound for the Reds and he has been as inconsistent as they come. In 15 starts, he has just five quality outings and in his 87 innings, he has allowed 18 home runs which is the worst ratio in baseball. Here, we play on home teams after a game where they had two or less hits, starting a pitcher who walked one or fewer hitters each of his last two outings. This situation is 37-14 (72.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (906) St. Louis Cardinals |
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09-02-18 | Cubs v. Phillies -140 | 8-1 | Loss | -140 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. After a loss on Saturday, the Phillies desperately need to close out this homestand with a victory to avoid falling further back in the division and in the Wild Card standings. They are three games behind Atlanta in the National League East as well as three games out in the Wild Card with all three teams in the National League West ahead of it behind St. Louis and Milwaukee. Despite the Saturday loss, Philadelphia still has the fourth best home record in baseball. The Cubs are now 4.5 games up on the Cardinals in the National League Central as they are getting healthy and peaking at the right time. This is the perfect spot to close the homestand with the victory as the Phillies hand the ball to their ace Aaron Nola. He has been incredible as home with a 1.94 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 13 starts. Philadelphia has won his first 12 home outings before losing last time out against Washington but it was far from his fault as he allowed just one earned run with the bullpen blowing the game for him. He faced off against Max Scherzer and Nola was the underdog and the Phillies remain a perfect 12-0 when he is favored. Jon Lester is again having a good season with a 3.67 ERA in 27 starts but the concern is his 1.32 WHIP as he allows a ton of hits, above average walks and his 23 home runs allowed are tied for seventh most in the National League. The Phillies are 21-7 in their last 28 home games against left-handed starters. 9* (904) Philadelphia Phillies |
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09-01-18 | Rockies -140 v. Padres | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. This is a huge game for Colorado which is suddenly going the wrong way. The Rockies go into tonight having lost four of their last five games to fall from a tie for first place to third place in the division. They are looking up at first-place Arizona and the Dodgers in the standings and the Padres are a team they cannot ruin their playoff hopes against. San Diego has won four straight games for the first time this season as it went into last night 0-4 following three straight victories. Even worse they are 4-17 in their last 21 games following three or more consecutive wins. Getting to five in a row will be a challenge as they go against Jon Gray, who is coming off a rough start against the Angels but had posted a 2.59 ERA over his previous seven starts. He is 3-1 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in four starts against San Diego this season. Robbie Erlin counters for the Padres and he has been decent yet unspectacular since entering the rotation vas he has a 4.21 ERA in five starts covering just 25.2 innings. Here, we play on National League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with an on-base percentage of .350 on the season and .310 over their last 20 games going up against a team with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.35 or better. This situation is 92-34 (73 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (961) Colorado Rockies |
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09-01-18 | Pirates v. Braves -137 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. The Braves have lost three straight games and their lead in the National League East has shrunk to two games over the Phillies following a 3-2 loss last night. This line opened at -160 and has come down considerable as sharp money poured in on the Pirates and Chris Archer which makes sense at that price. However, at this price, the Braves are the team with value as Archer has been anything but good since coming over from Tampa Bay. He has a 6.45 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in five starts and opposing batters are hitting a healthy .313 against him. He was extremely solid from 2013-2015 and while he is still considered an ace, his numbers do not show that as since 2016, he has a 4.20 ERA over 89 starts and that is hardly ace-like. The Braves counter with Kevin Gausman and he has been just the opposite. After being acquired from Baltimore, he is 4-1 and has a 1.69 ERA in five starts for the Braves and worked eight scoreless innings in a victory over the Pirates in Pittsburgh two starts back. The Braves fall into a great situation where we play on home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 with a slugging percentage of .370 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 70-28 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (958) Atlanta Braves |
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09-01-18 | Rays +113 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 113 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Saturday Triple Play. Cleveland took the opener of this series last night with a 3-0 victory thanks to a solid outing from Corey Kluber. The Indians will not have that type of advantage tonight as they continue to coast with a 14-game lead in the American League Central and likely third place among the three division winners. The big news yesterday was the acquisition of Josh Donaldson from Toronto but that does not come into play as there is no timetable for his return from a calf injury. Tampa Bay has lost two of three but is 9-2 over its last 11 games and has a solid edge tonight on the bump. When you can get an ace, and a real ace, at an underdog price, you have to jump on it. Blake Snell is a name not many know of but he is having a Cy Young type of season with a 2.05 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in 25 starts and he posted a 1.38 in five August starts, allowing no more than a run in each outing. The Rays are 11-4 in his 15 starts when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Shane Bieber is 8-2 in his 14 starts but that record does not tell a true story as he has posted a 4.52 ERA and his numbers are worse at home. Since the start of July, he has a 7.08 ERA in four home outings and that is bad news as the Rays are 9-2 in their last 11 games against right-handed starters. 10* (971) Tampa Bay Rays |
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08-31-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -125 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES DODGERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We are getting fair value on the Dodgers which are in dire need of a win following a loss in the series opener last night. They are now two games behind in the National League West and are 2.5 games out of the second spot in the National League Wild Card race. Los Angeles has been a disappointment at home all season as after going 63-26 for +14.6 units last season, it is just 35-34 for -25.2 units this year. The Dodgers have laid some big numbers but that is not the case tonight. Arizona has won two straight games and while the pitching has been dominant of late, the offense has done nothing as the Diamondbacks have averaged just 2.4 rpg over their last seven games. Zack Greinke is a big reason this line is low as he is still a top line pitcher with a 2.93 ERA and 1.03 WHIP on the season. However, his ERA on the road is a run and a half higher than it is at home. He was great as a Dodger here but since coming to Arizona, he has a 7.04 ERA in four starts at Dodger Stadium. Hyun-Jin Ryu has made only nine starts but he has been solid with a 2.18 ERA and 1.01 WHIP which includes a 1.26 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in five home starts with the Dodgers going 4-1. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ARIZONA) - after allowing two runs or less in four straight games going up against an opponent after scoring three runs or less in two straight games. This situation is 68-32 (68 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Los Angeles Dodgers |
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08-31-18 | Mariners v. A's -133 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Oakland had a golden opportunity last night to gain ground on Houston as it was given a rare Justin Verlander loss but failed on its side to cash in. the situation was not great as the A's are an average 27-22 against left-handed starters but they catch a righty tonight where they are 53-33 on the season. They still trail Houston by just 2.5 games in the American League West and even more importantly, they are 4.5 games up on Seattle for the second Wild Card spot so they need to take advantage of their home field and not let that gap close even more. The Mariners snapped a three-game slide with the win and they are the most fraudulent team in baseball. Seattle and Colorado are the only teams in baseball that have winning records but have negative scoring differentials and the Mariners are the worst at -42 despite being 16 games over .500. The Mariners are 2-9 in their last 11 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game while Oakland is 15-4 in its last 19 games following a loss. Mike Fiers has made four starts for Oakland since coming over from Detroit and he has been awesome with a 1.50 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and .188 BAA and there is no reason to see it not continue. Mike Leake has been very good as well of late but he is at a distinct disadvantage here as this is the fourth time the A's have seen him so earlier efforts against them are meaningless. 9* (928) Oakland A's |
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08-31-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox +148 | 1-6 | Win | 148 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Red Sox found a way to win yet again as trailing 4-0 last night, they scored the last nine runs to make it three straight victories. Stepping in front of this train is not for the faint of heart but we have a good spot to do so here. The White Sox have been in rebuilding mode since day one of the season but have been playing much better as they have won five straight series while going 11-6 over their last 17 games. Additionally, they are 11-6 in their last 17 games against American League team averaging 5.4 or more rpg. We have backed Michael Kopech in his first two big league starts and while the first resulted in a loss no thanks to a rain delay, he won last time out by tossing a quality outing against the Tigers. He is the real deal as he is the top pitching prospect on the team while being the overall No. 9 prospect in baseball as of last month. He posted a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts this season at Triple-A Charlotte with 170 strikeouts in 126. innings and was outstanding over his past seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA over that stretch. Added motivation tonight since Boston drafted him in the first round but traded him away in the Chris Sale deal. Nathan Eovaldi started his tenure with Boston by not allowing a run in his first two starts over 15 innings but it has been a struggle since as he has a 7.41 ERA over his last four starts. 9* (922) Chicago White Sox |
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08-30-18 | Rockies -143 v. Padres | 2-3 | Loss | -143 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. Colorado had a rare off day on a Wednesday following a series split against the Angels but it fell a half-game behind the Diamondbacks in the National League West following the Arizona win last night. With the possibility that the second place team in the National League West might not make the Wild Card game, every game has become crucial, especially those against the last place team in the division. San Diego took both games against Seattle following a five-game losing streak and those wins were rare. The Padres have the third worst home record in baseball and they are 3-11 in their last 14 home games against teams with a winning road record. Colorado hands the ball to German Marquez who has been on a solid run with six straight quality starts, posting a 2.16 ERA over 41.2 innings. He has been great on the road with a 2.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 13 starts and the Rockies are 8-2 in his last 10 starts. Eric Lauer was shut down in late July with a forearm strain and is back following a rehab start where he tossed just 61 pitches so he likely will not be stretched out here. The Rockies are 9-2 in their last 11 games against left-handed starters while going 20-8 in their last 28 games against starters with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 9* (959) Colorado Rockies |
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08-30-18 | Cubs v. Braves -123 | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. The Braves are coming off a split with Tampa Bay in its two-game series and they saw their lead over the Phillies drop to 3.5 games in the National League East. This is a makeup of a game that was rained out on May 17th and Atlanta has a big edge based on the travel situation. The Cubs had a seven-game winning streak snapped with a 10-3 loss to the Mets yesterday and they are in a tough spot here. Today was supposed to be a travel day for Chicago but instead had to travel here before heading to Philadelphia for a weekend series. Mike Foltynewicz gets the ball for Atlanta and he has been excellent during his five starts in August as he is 3-1 with a 1.38 ERA in 32.2 innings with 36 strikeouts. The Braves have won five of his last seven home starts. Mike Montgomery counters for Chicago who has been sidelined since August 14th with inflammation in his shoulder. The Cubs are 2-6 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on favorites that are hitting between .255 and .269 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better. This situation is 97-33 (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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08-30-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -106 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Thursday Triple Play. The Pirates cooled off the red hot Cardinals last night as Trevor Williams and the bullpen shut out St. Louis which was the first time the Cardinals have not scored since July 11th. August has been a great month for St. Louis as it is 20-6 which has propelled it into the top spot in the National League Wild Card race. They are still in the divisional hunt as well as they trail first place Chicago by just 4.5 games. St. Louis is 17-4 this season after scoring and allowing three runs or less. The Pirates have been going in the opposite direction as they have lost 11 of their last 15 games as the offense has completely shut down. Pittsburgh has averaged a mere 2.6 rpg over this 15-game stretch. Going back, the Pirates are 16-39 in their last 55 road games against teams with a winning home record. John Gant has been on a roll as he has posted a 1.99 ERA over his last four starts, allowing two runs or less in each game. He has struggled against Pittsburgh but all three career starts came on the road. Joe Musgrove has been a solid addition to the Pirates rotation but the wins have been few and far between as they have gone 1-4 over his last five outings. 10* (954) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-29-18 | Brewers -139 v. Reds | 13-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Cincinnati took the series opener last night to snap its five-game losing streak but we expect the Brewers to get it back tonight. The Reds are still three games under .500 at home so there is no real home edge and it was a rare victory over a quality opponent as the Reds are 2-10 in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. Milwaukee has been on a poor run this month as the Brewers are 10-13 in August and they have now actually fallen behind St. Louis into third place in the National League Central, trailing the first place Cubs by 5.5 games. Milwaukee sill hold down the second spot in the National League Wild Card race but there are four teams behind it that are all within 2.5 games so every game is big at this point. We are not sure what to make about this Matt Harvey stretch as he has tossed three straight solid outings where he has allowed three runs or less and for the most part, he has been pretty good for the Reds since coming over from New York. He is always capable of blowing up however and this could be the prime spot for that. Milwaukee hands the ball to Freddy Peralta who is coming off a pair of quality starts and he is having a solid season as he has allowed three runs or less in 10 of 13 starts. His overall ERA is 4.02 which is due to those three poor outings but he still possesses a 1.12 WHIP which is a truer indication of how he has pitched. 8* (905) Milwaukee Brewers |
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08-29-18 | Rays v. Braves -141 | 8-5 | Loss | -141 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Braves came through for us last night as they scored four runs in the eighth inning to pull away and coupled with the Phillies loss to Washington, they now have a 4.5-game lead in the National League East. Atlanta has a bigger advantage tonight on the mound than last night but the line is not significantly bigger so we are jumping on them again albeit at a smaller rating. The Braves are 8-0 in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. The Rays had their eight-game winning streak snapped with the loss but that was not impressive to begin with. During the winning streak, four wins came against Boston which looks impressive, but the Rays were fortunate to square off against the bottom of the rotation in all four of those games. The other four wins came against the Royals, so the recent streak comes with an asterisk. The Rays are 5-14 in their last 19 road games against teams with a winning record. Tampa Bay is going with the bullpen start again tonight and we continue not to buy that concept, especially when coming off one last night where the Rays used five pitchers. Diego Castillo has looked in two starts but they totaled just 3.1 innings. Sean Newcombe has had a few rough starts over the last couple months but he is coming off a quality start and the Braves are 13-3 in his last 16 starts against teams averaging 2.75 or fewer extra base hits per game. 8* (926) Atlanta Braves |
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08-29-18 | Blue Jays +103 v. Orioles | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Orioles have won the first two games of this series which snapped a 10-game losing streak against Toronto as the offense has exploded for 19 runs. It has not been a good spot though as the Orioles are 8-21 in their last 29 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. Baltimore has not won three straight games since the end of July and even with the win last night, it is 1-6 in its last seven games following a win. Toronto has dropped three in a row following a five-game winning streak as the pitching has been dreadful, allowing 27 runs over the three-game skid. Ryan Borucki gets the ball for Toronto and he has seven quality outings in his 11 starts. Of the four that were not, three came against the Red Sox and Yankees so we can expect another strong outing tonight. Alex Cobb has been pitching a lot better after a horrible start to the season but it is impossible to ignore the fact Baltimore is 0-9 in his nine home starts and there is no reason to believe this streak gets broken. His run support has been poor and his 5.86 ERA has not helped. Toronto falls into a contrarian situation where we play on American League teams averaging between 4.4 and 4.9 rpg while hitting .250 or worse over their last 20 games going up against a starter with an ERA between 4.70 and 5.70. This situation is 300-198 (60.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (917) Toronto Blue Jays |
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08-28-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -154 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. St. Louis continues to roll along as it is coming off a 5-1 roadtrip against playoff contenders Los Angeles and Colorado to improve to 19-5 in August. The Cardinals have the lead in the National League Wild Card race but there is not much separation as five teams are within 2.5-games in trying to lock down one of the two spots. St. Louis has won five straight series openers and the Cardinals are 12-2 in their last 14 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Pirates were in the hunt for a while, but they have dropped 10 of their last 13 games to kill any chance of a playoff run. Ivan Nova has been on a solid run, but his success has mostly come at home. In his last eight road starts, he has three quality starts and none have come against playoff contenders. The Pirates are 1-11 in his last 12 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Jack Flaherty has been on a better roll as he has tossed four straight quality outings to lower his ERA to 2.97 over 21 starts, He has faced the Pirates four times and has been solid with a 2.86 ERA covering 22 innings. 8* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-28-18 | Mets +116 v. Cubs | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Mets lost the series opener last night as Chicago was able to get to Noah Syndergaard in the 7-4 loss. New York was a slight underdog which is the case again tonight, but it has a much better pitching matchup on its side. The Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss. The Cubs have won six straight games to open up a 4.5-game lead in the National League Central as both offense and pitching make picked it up. They have a tough task facing Jacob deGrom tonight however as the Cy Young candidate continues to dominate. He has tossed 18 straight quality starts and the magic number here is three. The Mets are 11-4 when they score three runs or more in his starts while going 0-11 when they do not. The Cubs are 3-7 in their last 10 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Cole Hamels has been a great acquisition as he has allowed one run or less in all five of his starts and all have resulted in Cubs victories. We do not expect this run to continue as he has had early leads in four of the five games to alleviate some of the pressure. 9* (955) New York Mets |
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08-28-18 | Rays v. Braves -125 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Atlanta is coming off a successful 5-2 roadtrip and it has been able to widen the gap over the Phillies in the National League East to 3.5-games. This is the first time the Braves have been home since getting swept by Colorado in a four-game set to there will be plenty of motivation back in front of the home crowd. Additionally, the Braves are 7-0 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. A big reason why this line is so low is because the Rays have won eight straight games. While they are thinking of a playoff push, it is not going to happen despite the pitching dominance of late. Tampa Bay has allowed three runs or less in all eight of the victories as it continues to utilize the bullpen pitching for the majority of the games. Ryan Stanek has been used the most with mixed results as the Rays are 9-21 in the 21 games he has started, and he has been average, especially on the road where Tampa Bay has gone 1-7 in his eight starts. Julio Teheran counters for Atlanta and he is in a good stretch with three straight quality starts and he has allowed three runs or less in five straight home outings. 10* (974) Atlanta Braves |
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08-27-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +131 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 131 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. We played against Toronto yesterday and will do so again on Monday as it comes in as a significant road favorite for all of the wrong reasons. The Blue Jays had won five straight games before the defeat on Monday and now they hit the road where they are 11 games under .500 and going back they are 1-5 in their last six games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. The Orioles are the worst team in baseball as they have lost eight straight games including a four-game sweep to the Yankees to end the week. Included in there were three losses to Toronto which made it 10 consecutive losses to the Blue Jays, but the schedule has played a big role in that as all 10 of those games came in Toronto. The Orioles are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a losing road record. David Hess has some bad numbers, but he has turned the corner by posting a 2.89 ERA over his last three starts with each of those getting progressively better. In addition, all of those came on the road and if ever there is a contrarian play, this is it with the Orioles having lost his last 10 starts. That includes two against Toronto, but both were quality road starts. Sam Gaviglio gets the ball for Toronto and this is the most he has been favored by on the road all season. He has just one quality outing in nine road starts where he has posted an 8.36 ERA. An argument can be made he is facing the worst team in baseball but in his last road start, he was rocked by Kansas City, the second worst team in baseball. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks -162 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Arizona has lost the first two games of this series and has fallen into a tie for first place in the National League West with the Rockies and additionally, the Dodgers have made up two games in two days. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 games following a loss. Seattle is hanging in there as it trails Houston by 5.5 games in the American League West and Seattle by four games for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Mariners are just 1-4 in their last five games following a win and are at a big pitching disadvantage today. Zack Greinke is back home where he has a 2.34 ERA on the season and while Arizona has dropped three of his last four starts., it has not been his fault as he has a 2.08 ERA over that span. In those 26 innings, he allowed 6 runs while the bullpen allowed 12 runs in 10.2 innings. Mike Leake counters for the Mariners and he is on a roll with six straight quality outings, but this is more of an anomaly than the norm as he came into this stretch with a 4.36 ERA in 19 starts. While all games are big at this point for both sides, we give the edge to the home team before it has to travel on a seven-game roadtrip. 7* (980) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-26-18 | White Sox -110 v. Tigers | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. Chicago will be going for the series win today after taking two of the first three games of this four-game set. The White Sox have been solid on the road, going 5-1 in their last six on the highway. Detroit remains ahead of Chicago in the standings, but it has had a rough stretch of late as after winning its first game in August, it has gone 6-15 over its last 21 games and is now just a game over .500 at home. We played on Michael Kopech is his Major League debut, but it was cut short by rain. In his brief appearance, he was solid though. As mentioned then, he is the top pitching prospect on the team while being the overall No. 9 prospect in baseball as of last month. He posted a 3.70 ERA in 24 starts this season at Triple-A Charlotte with 170 strikeouts in 126. innings and was outstanding over his past seven starts, going 4-0 with a 1.84 ERA over that stretch. Jordan Zimmerman is having a career resurgence of sorts as his 4.18 ERA may not look great to some, it is solid for him considering his ERA was 5.60 in his first two years in Detroit. He does not like facing the White Sox as he has a 7.66 in eight starts against them including a 9.42 ERA in three outings this season. 9* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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08-26-18 | Phillies -111 v. Blue Jays | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Sunday Triple Play. It has been a rough stretch for the Phillies as they have dropped six of their last seven games but luckily, Atlanta has not been playing well either as they trail the Braves by just two games in the National League East. The Phillies are 14-3 in their last 17 games after losing the first two games of a series. Toronto meanwhile is going for a sweep of this homestand as it has won the first five games as the offense has averaged a healthy 6.2 rpg during the winning streak. However, the Blue Jays are 1-4 in their last five games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Vince Velazquez looks to stop the bleeding for Philadelphia and while a quick glance shows a recent poor stretch, it has not been that bad. He was limited to in his last start because of a rain delay and he was pitching well against Washington. He has a 2.97 ERA in 11 road starts and the fact the Phillies has lost his last six is keeping this number in a good place. Marco Estrada has been up and down, but it has mostly been the latter as he has just one quality outing over his last seven starts. The Blue Jays are 2-9 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (975) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-25-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -140 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Rockies were a big letdown last night as they generated 15 hits but managed only five runs as they left 24 men on base. Colorado remains a game behind Arizona in the National League West and has also fallen a game out of the Wild Card chase. St. Louis is now 4-0 on this current roadtrip following last night and a three-game sweep of the Dodgers. The Cardinals are rolling with the best record in baseball for August which propelled it into the first Wild Card spot in the National League. That is keeping this line down and despite the loss on Friday, the Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 home games against teams with a winning road record. German Marquez has been on a roll as he has tossed five straight quality starts as well as eight of his last nine. This includes three quality outings at home and he is on pace to keep it going. The Rockies are 7-2 in his last nine starts against teams with a winning record. Miles Mikolas struggled in his first start at Coors Field and we are expecting the same for John Gant. He has just two quality outings in his five road starts and those came against the Marlins and Giants, two of the three lowest scoring teams in the National League. The Cardinals are 3-8 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. Additionally, we play on National League home favorites of -125 to -175 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better. This situation is 132-59 (69.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (910) Colorado Rockies |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies +104 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We won with the Rockies yesterday as things were looking bleak before Ian Desmond hit a two-run home run with two outs in the ninth innings to pull off the 4-3 victory. Colorado remains a game behind Arizona in the National League West and while home cooking has not been as great as it has been in previous years, being a home underdog here is not justified in looking at the big picture. St. Louis is rolling right now, winning 17 of its last 21 games following a three-game sweep over the Dodgers to open this roadtrip. The Cardinals are now right in the playoff mix as they are just three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and they hold a half-game lead in the Wild Card standings. Miles Mikolas has to be a frontrunner for comeback players of the year as he has been great with a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 25 starts following a three-year stint in Japan after a dreadful year in Texas in 2014. He is 7-0 on the road despite an ERA that is higher than it is at home and he gets his first taste of Coors Field tonight with the wind blowing out on top of it. Antonio Senzatela gets the ball for Colorado and he is making his seventh start since entering the rotation. It has been uneven but what he has pitched great at home with a 0.71 in two home starts. On top of that, his best road start of the season came in St. Louis where he allowed just one run in six innings. 10* (960) Colorado Rockies |
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08-24-18 | A's -134 v. Twins | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Just like that, Oakland is now a game and a half out of first place in the American League West after a loss in the series opener last night for its second straight defeat coupled with a pair of Astros wins. We expect the A's to get it back tonight as they are catching a good number in a good spot and continue its torrid run that goes back two months. Oakland is 24-6 in its last 30 games after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. Minnesota is on a bit of a run, having won seven of its last 10 games and while it is much better at home than on the road, the Twins cannot be trusted with their 4.26 home ERA. Jake Odorizzi is partly responsible for that with his 5.12 ERA at Target Field and it has been ever worse of late as he has posted a 6.38 ERA over his last four home starts. Last night, Trevor Cahill was a bigger favorite than tonight and his home/road split differential is the biggest in baseball of any starting pitcher but for Sean Manaea, his ERA is better on the road than it is at home. He is coming off one of his worst starts of the season, but it was against Houston and prior to that, he allowed three runs or less in 13 consecutive starts, so we cannot fault him for his last outing against a top ranked offense. Oakland has won nine of his last 12 starts following a loss and the A's have won his last five outings against teams with a losing record. 9* (969) Oakland A's |
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08-24-18 | Yankees v. Orioles +170 | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We are going contrarian here as the public is all over the Yankees for obvious reasons. We played against New York in its last game against the Marlins and we are fading the Yankees again as they are banged up and going nowhere, sitting 9.5 games behind Boston in the American League East. Granted, Baltimore is going nowhere as well but situations like this do not come along very often with blind public backing based on records. The Orioles are coming off a 1-5 roadtrip and while the home field has not been much better that what has taken place on the road, a visit from the Yankees can get any team going. At first, we see that Alex Cobb is 0-7 at home with Baltimore going 0-8 in his eight home starts but he has not pitched nearly close to what that record indicates. Overall, he got off to a horrific start but after his first three starts, he has allowed three runs or less in 15 of his last 20 starts and over his last seven outings, he has a 2.14 ERA over his last seven starts. C.C. Sabathia is back after he was placed on the disabled list on August 13th with inflammation in his right knee. He has been great at home with a 2.44 ERA, but his road ERA is nearly two runs higher at 4.42. Here, we play against road favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 revenging a loss as a home favorite, starting a pitcher who is working on seven or more days rest. This situation is 28-14 (66.7 percent) since 1997. 9* (964) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-23-18 | Padres v. Rockies -154 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Thursday Supreme Annihilator. After losing Game One of this series on Tuesday, the Rockies came back with a 6-2 win last night and they are in a good spot again to keep it going and at a much better price. Colorado closed as a -255 favorite yesterday and that number is significantly better despite what may be considered a better matchup today. The Rockies are still a game and a half behind Arizona in the National League West and they need to continue to take care of business at Coors Field where they are 21-8 in their last 29 home games after starting off 11-20. The Padres have just 16 wins in their last 57 games as this season cannot end any quicker. Kyle Freeland takes the hill today for Colorado and he has been lights out all season, especially at home. The Colorado native has a 2.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 home starts where the Rockies have gone 9-2 in those games. San Diego is hitting .192 in its last 10 games against left-handed pitching and the Padres are 7-20 in their last 27 games against left-handed starters. Joey Lucchesi has had a solid season and he is the reason this price is low, but fatigue is starting to set in. He has only one quality road start and while it was here, that was all the way back in April. The Rockies are second in baseball against lefties with a .274 average and are 8-1 in their last nine games against left-handed starters. 9* (906) Colorado Rockies |
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08-23-18 | Giants v. Mets -145 | 3-1 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Thursday Afternoon Dominator. The Mets came through last night as Noah Syndergaard put up a solid effort and we expect the run to continue this afternoon. New York managed five runs on Wednesday which is far from explosive, but it has scored five or more runs in six of its last nine games. The Mets are 6-2 in their last eight home games against teams with a losing road record. San Francisco is officially cooked as it has dropped six of its last seven games and the worse offense in baseball in the month of august has a brutal matchup today. The Giants have scored three runs or less in seven of their last eight games and in he one game the offense put up four runs, they allowed 11. Now they get to face Jacob deGrom who has been dominating all season and while his eight wins are keeping people hesitant about the Cy Young, he is clearly the frontrunner. He has tossed 17 consecutive quality starts and this Giants offense is not going to intimidate him. The reason the line is playable is because Madison Bumgarner is the opposing pitcher and while he is still solid, he is far from what he was. He has been good at home, but he has a 4.70 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in seven road starts and while the Mets have struggled overall against lefties this season, they are hitting .314 against southpaws over their last 10 games. 8* (904) New York Mets |
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08-22-18 | Yankees v. Marlins +172 | 3-9 | Win | 172 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Wednesday Ultimate Underdog. The Yankees won a pitching duel last night in Miami as they took the game 2-1 in 12 innings. It was a game that could have an effect tonight as New York used seven relievers in that game, so the bullpen could shorthanded tonight which will put extra pressure on Lance Lynn. Additionally, Aroldis Chapman got hurt and had to leave the game and will likely be unavailable for tonight. New York has won four straight games and has closed the gap to eight games in the American League East, but that race is likely over, so the only thing left is waiting to see who they are going to face in the Wild Card playoff game. The Yankees are just 3-10 in their last 13 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game. Miami has its two-game winning streak snapped with the loss last night and the offense was handcuffed after scoring 19 runs against Washington over that two-game span. It has been a tough season for Miami, but it has played better than most expected and the Marlins have been profitable at home over the last couple months, going 13-12 over their last 25 games. Lynn got lit up in his last game after putting up two solid efforts in his first two starts with the Yankees. He was awful in Minnesota and we could see him start to slide back in that direction. The Marlins counter with Trevor Richards who has had an up and down season but pitches well here as he has a 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight home starts including a 1.53 ERA over his last three starts. 9* (976) Miami Marlins |
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08-22-18 | Braves v. Pirates -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. After getting swept in four games at home against Colorado, the Braves have responded with a pair of wins to open this series as the pitching has led the way by allowing just one run total. They got a gem from Kevin Gausman last night and they now have a two-game lead over Philadelphia in the National League East. Atlanta has been a solid road team this season, but a lot of that success came early as the Braves are just 10-10 over their last 20 road games. The Pittsburgh offense continues to struggle as the Pirates have scored four runs or less in 10 straight games which has come right after a four-game stretch where they plated 34 runs. So far on this six-game homestand, Pittsburgh has been shutout three times and has scored 1, 2 and 3 runs in the other three games. While all of this may seem as a reason not to back the Pirates, they are facing Julio Teheran who can be a very good pitcher, but he has his moments of blowing up and that is especially the case on the road. Over his last three road games, he has a 9.00 ERA, allowing 15 runs in 15 innings and while one of those games was against the Yankees, the other two were against the Mets and Marlins, two of the lowest scoring teams in baseball. The Braves are 0-4 in his last four starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Trevor Williams meanwhile has been outstanding as he has posted a 0.75 ERA over his last six starts, allowing not a single run in four of those. 10* (954) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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08-22-18 | Twins v. White Sox -103 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. We lost with the White Sox last night as the debut of Michael Kopech was cut short because of a rain delay as he only went two innings, but the bullpen did do its job up until the ninth inning when the Twins scored three runs off of Dylan Covey, one of the worst pitchers in baseball. We will be backing the White Sox again this afternoon as they are getting a good price at home with arguably their best arm in the rotation. The Twins got a rare road win last night as they are now 3-8 over their last 11 games on the highway and their 22-39 road record is fifth worst in baseball. Minnesota is 9-18 this season in 27 road games against teams with a slugging percentage of .410 or worse. Carlos Rodon has made only 12 starts this season as he opened on the disabled list after having arthroscopic shoulder surgery last September, but he has made the most of it. He is 4-3 with a 2.69 ERA in 12 starts and in his past seven starts, he has posted a 3-0 record with a miniscule 1.60 ERA. He is limiting hitters to a .159 average in that span. Additionally, he is dealing at home with a 1.50 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in five starts. The Twins are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against left-handed starters. Kyle Gibson is having his best season in Minnesota, but it has been far from dominating as he has a 3.51 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 25 starts. While he has pitched better on the road than at home this season, he has a 4.34 ERA over his last six road starts. 9* (966) Chicago White Sox |
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08-21-18 | Padres v. Rockies -174 | 4-3 | Loss | -174 | 11 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Colorado heads back home following a solid roadtrip where it went 5-1 including a four-game sweep in Atlanta where the pitching was outstanding. The Rockies trail Arizona in the National League West by just a half-game and can finally take a breath after a brutal portion of the schedule. The series with the Braves also ended the Rockies National League-record tying stretch of 46 consecutive games against teams with a winning record and they were a fantastic 30-16 over that stretch. Colorado cannot take San Diego lightly however especially with a series against St. Louis on deck and going back, the Rockies are 20-7 in their last 27 home games after starting off 11-20 at Coors Field. It has been an expectedly tough season for the Padres as their offense has been nonexistent while their pitching has been inconsistent. Robbie Erlin has been on of the consistent ones albeit most of coming out of the bullpen. He was added to the rotation at the start of the month and has been solid with a 2.81 ERA in three starts but heading to Colorado is not a good thing as the Rockies are hitting .301 against lefties at home and have won 12 of their last 14 games against left-handed starters. Tyler Anderson has been exceptional at home and dreadful on the road over the last two months. He has a 12.56 ERA in three road starts but in five home starts, he has a 1.35 ERA. He has a 2.27 ERA in six career starts against San Diego and here, we play on National League favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 4.20 and 4.70 but with an ERA of 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 53-10 (81.4 percent) since 1997. 7* (910) Colorado Rockies |