Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-21-19 | Nationals -143 v. Pirates | 11-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 42 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Following a 7-1 run, Washington spoiled a solid performance from Stephen Strasburg with the bullpen allowing four runs in the eighth inning capping a 4-1 loss. The Nationals are still in the Wild Card lead in the National League as they are a game up on Chicago and three games up on everyone else. The Nationals are 26-8 in their last 34 games against teams with a losing record. The Pirates are not even close to being in contention as they possess the second worst record in the National League. The win snapped a three-game losing streak as the offense continues to struggle, averaging just 2.4 rpg over their last five games. The Pirates are 3-13 in their last 16 home games. Patrick Corbin has been a great addition to the rotation with a 3.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 25 starts. His road numbers are not great but it was due to a bad stretch in late May and early June. Washington is 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Joe Musgrove has struggled this season with inconsistency and while he is coming off a quality outing, he has an 8.62 ERA over his last three home starts. 9* (905) Washington Nationals |
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08-21-19 | Angels v. Rangers -123 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Angels have dropped two of the first three games of this series to fall three games under .500 on the season and five games under .500 on the road. The Angels are 1-5 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Texas was in the thick of the American League Wild Card race but a recent slump derailed the Rangers which are just 2-5 on this current homestand. That is keeping the number down in a pitching mismatch and the Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing road record. The resurgent season for Mike Minor continues as he cis coming off three straight quality outings to improve to a 2.94 ERA and 1.18 through 25 starts. His numbers at home are not as good but they are very respectable still and in his career against the Angles, he is 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 36.2 innings. Patrick Sandoval counters for the Angels and he has been average in his first two starts with the team following a strong relief appearance in his Major League debut. Overall, he has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in just 14 innings of work. 9* (918) Texas Rangers |
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08-20-19 | Padres v. Reds -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Reds got another solid home start from Trevor Bauer but the offense failed to get anything going as they lost their second straight game. Cincinnati is still four games over .500 at home and going back, the Reds are 6-2 in their last eight home games against teams with a losing record. After dropping the opener in Philadelphia, the Padres have won their last three road games thanks to solid pitching but the offense has still been struggling. They are 3-7 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Sonny Gray has been everything the Reds could have asked for after getting him following his rough time with the Yankees. He has a 2.98 RA and 1.12 WHIP over 22 starts and he has been exceptional of late with a 1.59 ERA over his last nine starts which includes three straight start of allowing no runs. Cal Quantrill has been very solid in his 12 starts although he does not go deep in games and the Padres bullpen is one of the worst in baseball with a 4.89 ERA on the road. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-19-19 | Royals v. Orioles -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for out MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Baltimore enters Monday riding a seven-game losing streak while going on a 1-12 streak but seven games were against the Yankees, three against the Red Sox and three against Astros. Kansas City is coming off a 1-4 homestand and head out on the road where it is 20-41 on the season. John Means will start for the Orioles, and the left-hander has had troubles since making the All-Star team. He's dropped his last three starts and hasn't made it out of the fourth inning in any of them. That being said, the last two outings came against the Yankees and the other in hitter-friendly Chase Field against Arizona. He has been very good at home with a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 11 starts and the six Baltimore wins in those games account for one-third of its total wins at home. Jorge Lopez is making his second start since coming back into the rotation and he was lit up by the lowly Tigers last time out, allowing five runs, four earned, in just 1.1 innings. Overall, he has a 6.51 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 11 starts and 19 relief appearances. Here, we play against American League underdogs with an OBP of .310 worse and batting .190 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 61-17 (78.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Baltimore Orioles |
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08-18-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -101 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Francisco has won the first three games of this series and will be out for the series sweep behind its ace but we are going the contrarian route. The Giants have gone from one game behind the Diamondbacks to two up on them in the National League Wild Card chase. The Diamondbacks have lost four straight games overall and are 4 .5 games back of the second Wild Card spot, with four teams ahead of them. While must wins are thrown around a lot, this is one of those for Arizona. The pitching has been a disaster and the bullpen has logged a lot of innings and it is up to Merrill Kelly to put in a good workload. He was hit hard in his last start but that was at Coord Field against Colorado. He has a 3.84 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 11 home starts. Madison Bumgarner is coming off a pair of gems but both of those were at home where he has a 2.95 ERA. The road has been a different story as he has a 4.64 ERA in 11 starts. Here, we play on National League home teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.70 to 5.20 on the season, with a bullpen that has tossed nine or more innings over the last two games. This situation is 69-32 (68.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-17-19 | Padres v. Phillies -107 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. After their dramatic walk-off grand slam on Thursday, the Phillies were able to carry that into Friday with an 8-4 win over the Padres in the series opener. They have now won four straight games to take over the second Wild Card spot from the Cubs in the National League. The Phillies are 13-6 in their last 19 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. San Diego has lost four of its last five games to fall to nine games under .500 on the season yet are priced tonight like a much better team. Yet, the Padres have struggled in this spot as they are 3-12 in their last 15 games against National League teams with a batting average of .255 or worse. Part of the reason for the number is the pitching matchup as Zach Eflin has been brutal of late. He returns to the rotation for the first time since July 27, when he gave up six earned runs in 2.2 innings as part of a 15-7 loss to the Braves. He has appeared in four games out of the bullpen since then, allowing one run in 5.2 innings, striking out seven. San Diego counters with Dinelson Lamet who has been solid of late but has faced no one. The Padres are 0-11 in his last 11 starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League favorites with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season and whose WHIP is 2.00 or higher over his last three starts. This situation is 106-40 (72.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (906) Philadelphia Phillies |
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08-16-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Arizona got shutout in the opener of this series last night to make it two straight losses and has fallen back to .500 on the season. It has not been particularly good at home at 27-29 but that is keeping this number down and going back, the Diamondbacks are 5-2 in their last seven games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. San Francisco has now won four of its last five games to also sit at .500 on the season and it has been a great run over the last month. The Giants are 2-7 in their last nine games following a win. Mike Leake had a positive first start with Arizona but was shelled last time out although that was against the Dodgers on the road. He has been solid in these spots as his teams are 11-1 as favorites of -110 or higher over the last two seasons. Jeff Samardzija has been on a great run but he does not like it here and in two starts this season, he has a 6.35 ERA at Chase Field. 10* (964) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-16-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -137 | 13-4 | Loss | -137 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. We won with the Reds last night and we will be backing them again tonight in another strong pitching situation. Cincinnati is now 34-28 at home and it is the only team in baseball with a losing record that possesses a positive scoring differential which is at +27. St. Louis fell to 29-33 on the road but still remains in a tie with the Cubs in the National League Central. St. Louis is now 0-13 after a five-game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better this season. Luis Castillo continues to dazzle with his 2.69 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as he has tossed three straight quality outings. He has a 2.35 ERA and 0.94 WHIP at home and has a 1.50 ERA in two starts against St. Louis this season. Adam Wainwright is having a good yet unspectacular season and the home/road splits are the story. He has a 2.19 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 11 home starts but a 6.96 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 11 road starts. 9* (958) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-16-19 | Indians v. Yankees -143 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. It is rare to be on the Yankees but typically they are overpriced and they actually come in with some value tonight. They were embarrassed last night by allowing 19 runs with the game basically being over after the first inning. Despite the defeat, the Yankees are 54-18 in their last 72 home games against teams with a winning road record while going 13-2 after a game where the bullpen allowed four or more earned runs this season. Cleveland snapped a two-game skid with the win but are in a tough spot tonight with a rookie pitcher making his first start at Yankee Stadium. Aaron Civale has posted three quality starts to open his career including two in August. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off one of his best starts of the season and returns home where he has a 3.29 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 13 starts. He got hit hard in Boston a couple weeks back but the Yankees are 10-1 over his last 11 starts. 9* (966) New York Yankees |
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08-15-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Game of the Week. St. Louis has moved into a tie for first place with the Cubs in the National League Central following its fifth straight win. The Cardinals swept the Pirates at home and then went on the road and posted back-to-back shutouts over the Royals which makes this a great time to play against. St. Louis is 0-12 this season after a five-game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better. Cincinnati has dropped four in a row following a 17-7 loss last night in Washington and it heads home with a 33-28 record and a very winnable stretch coming up. The Reds are 8-3 in their last 11 home games against teams with a losing road record. Michael Wacha looks to bounce back from an atrocious performance in his latest outing as he was throttled for six runs on seven hits, including two homers, in 3.2 innings of an 8-0 setback at the Dodgers. It was his first start in over a month after getting back into the rotation and is has been a struggle all season with a 5.54 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 15 starts. The Cardinals have dropped five of his last seven road starts. Sonny Gray has been everything the Reds could have asked for after getting him following his rough time with the Yankees. He has a 3.10 RA and 1.13 WHIP over 23 starts and he has been exceptional of late with a 1.74 ERA over his last eight starts. The Reds are 7-0 in his last seven home starts against teams with a winning record. 10* (906) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-14-19 | Mets v. Braves -135 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The red hot Mets have cooled off with a pair of losses and they are now two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. They had great success at home and while the road was good as well, three victims were the White Sox, Marlins and Pirates, all of which are at least 12 games under .500. The Mets are 8-20 as a road underdog of +100 to +150 this season. Atlanta remains six games in front of Washington in the National League East following its second straight win to improve to 33-25 at home. The Braves have won five of their last six games against teams with a winning record. Dallas Keuchel is coming off a rough start as he allowed eight runs on 10 hits in justv3.2 innings against the Marlins. That was on the road however where he has a 6.40 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in six starts. He has been a different pitcher at home, where in four hone outings, he has a 2.96 ERA and 0.84 WHIP and all of those have ben quality performances. The Mets are 1-5 in their last six road games against left-handed starters. Steven Matz is similar where he has been much better at home than on the road. He has a 2.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 11 home games while posting a 6.79 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine road games. 10* (960) Atlanta Braves |
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08-13-19 | Mariners v. Tigers -155 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Seattle has lost eight of its last nine games following a three-game home sweep at the hands of the Rays and it hits the road where it is just 21-35 and the slumps have really carried over. The Mariners are 15-46 after having lost four or five of their last six games this season. Detroit is the worst team in baseball at 35-80 yet comes in as a favorite tonight which has many shaking their head but it is for good reason based on the matchup. The Tigers 16 home wins are the fewest in baseball but we are backing them here behind Matthew Boyd. He is coming off one of his worst start on the season but prior to that, he posted a 2.50 ERA over his previous three starts and has struck out at least eight hitters in seven straight starts with an average of 9.9 per game. That makes this matchup a big advantage as the Mariners have struck out 1,179 times this season, the most in baseball. Detroit is 13-4 in his last 17 starts against American League teams with an on base percentage .330 or worse. The Mariners counter with Yusei Kikuchi has struggled this season, especially on the road where he has a 5.55 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in 12 starts. The Mariners have dropped his last six road starts. Here, we play against underdogs after two straight losses by two runs or less going up against an opponent after a loss by six runs or more. This situation is 59-18 (76.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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08-12-19 | Red Sox v. Indians +107 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 107 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Cleveland busted loose for four runs in the 10th inning yesterday to win the series finale against Minnesota and reclaim a share of first place in the American League Central. The Indians have been one of the hottest teams in baseball as they are 37-14 over their last 51 games and yet they come into this series opener as underdogs. Because it is the Red Sox name and nothing else. Boston is hovering at just four games over .500 as it is 3-13 over its last 16 games and has fallen 7.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox are 0-8 in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. Zach Plesac takes the hill for Cleveland and he has been solid with a 3.12 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 13 starts, 10 of which the Indians have won. He has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six starts including three games allowing no runs. Cleveland has won his last six outings. Eduardo Rodriguez has been up and down with a 4.17 ERA and 1.34 WHIP including a 4.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 12 road starts. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities, starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 35-13 (72.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (962) Cleveland Indians |
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08-11-19 | Rockies +108 v. Padres | Top | 8-3 | Win | 108 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. San Diego has won three straight games over Colorado to open this homestand where it is just 28-30 on the season. Despite the recent run, the Padres are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a win. Colorado looks to avoid a four-game sweep today against San Diego and put an end to a five-game losing streak, all coming on the road. Going back, the Rockies have lost seven straight road games and are 3-15 in their last 18 road games. So why bet them? The pitching matchup is finally in their favor. German Marquez will be facing the Padres for the third time this season and owns a career 4-2 record against them, with a 5.13 ERA over 47.1 innings. He is 2-0 against the Padres this season with a 7.15 ERA, but both starts were at Coors Field, where the Rockies have supported him with 26 runs so that ERA is skewed. He started twice at Petco Park last season and posted a 2.77 ERA. Dinelson Lamet counters for the Padres and while he is coming off his best start of the season, it was on the road against the Mariners which are the second worst hitting team in baseball since the All-Star Break. Colorado meanwhile is fifth with a .270 average and Lamet has struggled in both of his home starts this season with a 6.30 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. 10* (909) Colorado Rockies |
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08-10-19 | Indians v. Twins -140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Game of the Month. Minnesota has officially blown a massive lead after 104 days at the top following its fourth straight loss which came on the heels of a four-game winning streak. The Twins pitching has been abysmal as they have allowed 9.0 rpg over this slump but their best starter since this takes the hill tonight. The Twins are 20-7 in their last 27 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Another great performance from Shane Bieber sent Cleveland to its fourth straight win and put the Indians into a tie for first place with the Twins in the American League Central. The Indians are now 10 games over .500 on the rod and are one of the hottest pitching teams in baseball as they have allowed an average of 2.0 rpg over their last eight games. That being said, the Twins are in a great spot to get the lead back with Jake Odorizzi taking the hill. He got lit up by the Yankees three starts back but has allowed just two runs over his last two outings. He has a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP at home and the Twins are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts while going 15-4 over his last 19 starts total. Adam Plutko has been on a roll as well but it is hard to ignore his 5.31 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in his three road starts and one relief appearance. Minnesota is 12-4 in its last 16 games playing with double-revenge. 10* (974) Minnesota Twins |
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08-09-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -137 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. St. Louis has lost five straight games to fall four games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but all five of those losses came on the road and a day on Thursday was just what it needed. The Cardinals are 31-23 at home and they have won five straight games against teams with a losing record. The Pirates come in losers of five straight games as well and their playoff hopes are completely done. They are 7-21 in their last 28 road games. Chris Archer has been a disaster since coming over from Tampa Bay last season although he is coming off a rare quality outing. Still, he brings in a 7.14 ERA on the road and the Pirates are 0-6 in his last six starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Dakota Hudson is having a fine season as he has allowed three runs or less in all but two of his 22 starts. The Cardinals are 8-0 in his last eight starts against teams with a losing record. Here, we play against road underdogs with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 2.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 66-24 (73.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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08-09-19 | Braves -134 v. Marlins | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Atlanta dropped the opener of this series last night 9-2 as Dallas Keuchel got lit up for eight runs in just 3.2 innings of work. The Braves lead is now 5.5 games over Washington in the National League East and going back, they are 10-2 in their last 12 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Miami snapped a six-game losing streak with the victory and it is still just 23-35 at home. The Marlins are 2-9 in their last 11 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Julio Teheran gets the ball for Atlanta and he has now allowed three runs or less in seven straight starts. He has dominated Miami this season in three starts, going 18 innings and not allowing a single run. Caleb Smith is having a strong season for Miami which is keeping this number in play. He has been tough to beat of late but the Atlanta bats, which scored 23 runs in their previous two games, should come to life tonight. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -125 or more revenging a loss as a road favorite, starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 61-17 (78.2 percent) since 1997. 9* (901) Atlanta Braves |
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08-09-19 | Cubs v. Reds +104 | 2-5 | Win | 104 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Cubs offense is humming as they have averaged 7.0 rpg over their last seven games including putting up 22 runs over the last two games. Chicago is 6-1 over this stretch but most of that came at home and it is just 22-33 on the road. More recent, the Cubs are 9-20 in their last 29 road games. Cincinnati had a three-game winning streak snapped with the defeat last night and a run at the Wild Card is still in play as it is just 4.5 games out of the final spot in the National League. The Reds are 4-0 in their last four games following a loss. Trevor Bauer did not have a good start in his first with the Reds but that came on the road in Atlanta and he now makes his home debut. In three regular season starts against the Cubs, he is 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA. Yu Darvish has been very up and down and while his control has gotten better, Chicago has lost his last three road outings. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season but batting .280 or better over their last 20 games. This situation is 60-35 (63.2 percent) since 1997. 9* (904) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-08-19 | Indians v. Twins -105 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. After opening its homestand with four straight wins, Minnesota dropped the final two games against the Braves as the pitching blew up by allowing 23 runs. The Twins lead in the American League Central has shrunk to two games over the Indians which makes this a big series for both teams but we give the sided edge to the home team which are 35-23 at home. Additionally, the Twins are 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss. Cleveland had a successful 6-3 homestand including wins in five of the final six games to continue pushing Minnesota. The Indians are a solid 30-22 on the road but that helps with our number here as the short price is on our side. Kyle Gibson is coming off a pair of quality outings and he has been on a solid run overall with just two bad starts over his last 11 games and those were against the Yankees and Red Sox. While his 4.02 ERA at home is not great, his 1.08 WHIP is. Mike Clevinger has been on a roll over his last six starts but he hits the road where he has not been good and his three road starts where he has had success have come against the Royals twice and the Blue Jays. The Indians are 3-10 in his last 13 starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on American League teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 3.50 or better, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 40-22 (64.5 percent) since 1997. 10* (966) Minnesota Twins |
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08-07-19 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -134 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Game of the Week. After losing Game One of this series, the Diamondbacks won yesterday and will be going for the series win tonight as they look to keep pace in the National League Wild Card race. They have not been a great home team this season, siting at two games under .500, but that is a big reason the line is very short. The Phillies are even worse on the road and going back, they are 22-44 as road underdogs of +150 or less. Additionally, Philadelphia is 3-17 in its 20 games as an underdog between +125 and +175 this season. Zac Gallen is making his Arizona debut after coming over from Miami in a prospect trade and he has been sensational. Between Triple-A and MLB, he has a 2.04 ERA with 155 strikeouts in 127.2 innings and in his last two starts with the Marlins, he tossed 14 innings and allowed only two runs. While this may look like a poor move going to a notorious hitters park, when looking at Run Factor, Arizona has actually been better for pitchers (35 and 53) than Miami (18 and 33). The Phillies counter with Jason Vargas who had a solid debut in a Philadelphia uniform as he posted a quality outing against the White Sox. But that is the White Sox. He now faces a Diamondbacks team that is third best in baseball against lefties with a .283 average. The Diamondbacks are 4-1 in their last five games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Here, we play against road teams that are hitting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 48-15 (76.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-06-19 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -128 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona lost the opener of this series last night to fall a game under .500 but it remains in the playoff chase as it is just 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League. The Diamondbacks have been very average at home as they are 25-28 but that is keeping this price modest. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a loss. Philadelphia sits in one of those two Wild Card spots but despite being six games over .500, the Phillies are -17 in scoring differential and that is a cause for concern. The Phillies are 7-19 in their last 26 games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and they square off against Mike Leake who is making his first start in Arizona since coming over from Seattle. He had a couple bad starts here and there but was strong for the most part. Jake Arrieta is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow and has failed to complete six innings in each of his past five starts, maxing out at 88 pitches in that span. 9* (956) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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08-06-19 | A's v. Cubs -135 | 11-4 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. After another win last night, Chicago has now won four straight games and coupled with the Cardinals losing three straight games, the Cubs now have a 2.5-game lead in the National League Central. They are the fourth team in baseball to reach 40 home wins and the Cubs are 23-7 in their last 30 home games against teams with a winning record. The loss snapped a three-game winning streak for Oakland as it remains a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The A's are 14 games over .500 at home but just a game over .500 on the road. Jon Lester is coming off a poor outing against the Cardinals but that was on the road. He has a 2.95 ERA at home and the Cubs are 10-1 in his 11 starts when favored by -110 or higher. Brett Anderson is having a solid season but is coming off a pair of poor outings. Oakland is 1-5 in his last six starts following a team loss in their previous game. 9* (976) Chicago Cubs |
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08-06-19 | Angels v. Reds -138 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Reds won the opener of this series as they jumped out to a 6-0 lead after two innings and never looked back. Cincinnati is not in a playoff race sitting five games under .500 but it is 30-26 at home and the Reds are 5-1 in their last six games against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles was making a Wild Card push but it has lost five straight games and is now nine games back. The Angels are 20-46 in their last 66 road games against teams with a winning home record. Anthony DeSclafani gets the ball for Cincinnati and while he has been rather average, he has been particularly good at home with a 3.40 ERA in 10 starts which includes a 1.59 ERA over his last five starts at Great American Ball Park. Jose Suarez has made nine starts and none have resulted in a quality outing and he did not make it through five innings in any of his five starts in July, posting an 0-1 mark and 5.75 ERA. 10* (974) Cincinnati Reds |
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08-05-19 | A's v. Cubs -142 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Cubs came through for us on Sunday with a 7-2 victory over Milwaukee to culminate a three-game sweep over the Brewers and they now have a game and a half lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Chicago improved to 39-18 at home which is the second best home record in the National League and going back, the Cubs are 22-7 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning record. The A's head to Chicago with three straight wins and are a half-game behind Tampa Bay for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. Oakland is 14-7 since the All-Star Break and 28-12 going back to June 17. The A's are also a great home team but average on the road with a 27-25 record and going back, Oakland is 17-35 in its last 52 Interleague road games against teams with a winning record. Kyle Hendricks has a 2.25 ERA in his last six starts and has a scoreless streak of 12 innings entering Monday. He allowed seven hits and no runs in seven innings in his last start and has allowed two runs or less in each of those last six outings. The Cubs are 22-6 in his last 28 starts when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game and his 1.89 ERA at home is third best in baseball. Chris Bassitt gets the ball for Oakland and he is having a good year with a 3.84 ERA but the home/road splits tell the story as he has posted a 3.06 ERA at home but has a 4.53 ERA in 10 road starts. 10* (926) Chicago Cubs |
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08-04-19 | Cardinals v. A's -135 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
This is a play on the OAKLAND A'S as part of our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Oakland won the series opener yesterday as it jumped out to a 5-0 lead and never looked back. The A's remain a half-game out in the American League Wild Card race following their second straight win. The Cardinals now trail the Cubs by a half-game in the National League Central and the loss last night snapped a five-game road winning streak but St. Louis is still a struggling road team overall and going back, they are 6-14 in their last 20 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Tanner Roark is making his Oakland debut and is certainly in a good spot. Roark, who was 6-7 with a 4.24 ERA and 108 strikeouts in 110.1 innings for Cincinnati, has been given new life in Oakland and he looks to take advantage. Adam Wainwright counters for St. Louis and while his 2.26 ERA at home is exceptional, his 7.16 ERA away from home is not. Only two of 10 road starts have been quality outings and the Cardinals are 0-6 in his last six road starts against teams with a winning record. 9* (980) Oakland A's |
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08-04-19 | Brewers v. Cubs -138 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS as part of our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. After a disappointing roadtrip, the Cubs have won the first two games of this series to take a half-game lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. Chicago has the biggest home/road splits in baseball as the 71 wins by the home team in its 110 games is the most in MLB. The Cubs are 21-7 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning record. The Brewers are very well alive in the National League Wild Card race, sitting just two games out but like most teams, they struggle on the road and their 24-31 road record is worst among the top seven Wild Card contenders. The Brewers are 5-12 in their last 17 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Yu Darvish has not been great this season but he is on a great stretch with a 2.25 ERA over his last four games. Adrian Houser is coming off his best career start but when that start was just five innings, you know he has not pitched good at all. 9* (956) Chicago Cubs |
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08-04-19 | Reds v. Braves -121 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -121 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Atlanta looks to clinch the series with a win on Sunday and the matchup and the line makes it very playable. The Braves won Game Three on Saturday in extra innings after squandering a 3-0 lead and they can carry that momentum forward into today. The Braves are 36-16 in their last 52 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Reds fell to 22-32 on the road with the loss yet are still short underdogs today and that is due to the starting pitching name. Cincinnati is 5-11 in its last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. Sonny Gray is the aforementioned pitching name as he is having a solid season but he is just 1-4 on the road and he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings in his lone start against the Braves this season. Julio Teheran posted a 1.48 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in five July starts and looks to continue his home domination where he has a 2.26 ERA in 10 starts. 10* (952) Atlanta Braves |
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08-03-19 | Tigers v. Rangers -106 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. Texas held on for a 5-4 win last night in the opening game of this series as the bullpen nearly squandered a 5-1 lead and another gem performance from Lance Lynn. The Rangers remain seven games out in the American League Wild Card race so while those chances are slim of making a big move, Texas indicated it is not giving up and the remainder of this series is big as the Rangers travel to Cleveland and Milwaukee after this. The Rangers are 42-20 in their last 62 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Detroit is not putting a scare into anyone with its 32-73 record yet comes into this game as nearly even money. The Tigers are 2-6 on this current roadtrip and going back, they are 21-60 in their last 81 road games against teams with a winning home record. We have a lot of respect for Matthew Boyd as do the linesmakers for setting this line where it is but there is no reason it should be this short based on his strikeout ability. He has struggled on the road with a 4.50 ERA and prior to a pair of quality outings, he posted a 6.62 ERA in his six previous starts. He is 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA in seven starts against Texas and the Tigers are 0-8 in his last eight starts against teams with a winning record. Adrian Sampson has had a tough run but the schedule has not been in his favor with four straight road games. He is solid at home with a 3.36 ERA and the Tigers have been absolutely anemic against right-handers this season, ranking dead last in wRC+. 10* (926) Texas Rangers |
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08-02-19 | Red Sox v. Yankees -122 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. The Yankees will be out for some payback this weekend. They were able to salvage the series finale in Boston last Sunday but still dropped the series three games to one. They have a seven-game lead in the American League East over Boston which seems pretty comfortable but New York does not want to make this division interesting and winning the opener would be a big start. The Yankees are 55-17 in their last 72 home games against teams with a winning record. Since that series finale loss to New York, the Red Sox have yet to win as they were swept at home against Tampa Bay and the pitching has been abysmal during this losing streak as they have allowed an average of 8.0 rpg and while the Yankees poor pitching gets more press, the Boston pitching is even worse as its 4.74 ERA is 20th in baseball and it has reared its ugly head the last four games. James Paxton has been a huge disappointment for the Yankees as his 4.72 ERA is not what was expected. His splits tell a different story which helps here as he has a 5.83 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in eight road starts but he has a 3.75 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in 10 home starts. One of those home starts came against Boston and he allowed no runs on two hits in eight innings. Eduardo Rodriguez counters for Boston and he has been on a decent run as he has won five straight starts including one against New York last weekend. But it was his worst of the bunch and in his last six starts against the Yankees, he has a 5.87 ERA. 10* (966) New York Yankees |
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08-01-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals -111 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. We won with St. Louis on Tuesday and the Cubs were able to even up the series with a 2-0 shutout win last night behind a strong pitching performance from Kyle Hendricks. The Cardinals will try to win the rubber match against their longtime division rivals as the teams are tied for first place in the National League Central with two months remaining in the regular season. Before Wednesday, the home team had won all 10 of the meetings in the season series and we see that resuming tonight. St. Louis has won 13 of its last 18 games while the Cubs improved to just 21-32 on the road which is the second worst road record in the National League only ahead of Miami. The Cubs are 1-5 in their last six games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Jack Flaherty get the ball for the Cardinals and he has been red hot. He has posted a 1.48 ERA over his past four starts, with seven walks and 30 strikeouts during that span. He has been up and down against the Cubs but has a 1.80 ERA in two career home starts. Jon Lester has been pitching well also but has not been nearly as hot over his four-game stretch and despite a solid out in Milwaukee in his last start, he possesses a 4.42 ERA on the road. 10* (904) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-31-19 | Astros v. Indians +120 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 120 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. This line came out late due to Zach Plesac making a late start over Adam Plutko. The Astros took the opener of this series last night with a 2-0 win behind a gem from Justin Verlander. It was the second straight win for Houston to remain eight games ahead of Oakland in the American League West. The Astros are 2-6 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. It was the second straight loss for the Indians as they are now three games behind Minnesota in the American League Central. Cleveland has been playing its best baseball of the season as it is 18-6 over its last 24 games and going back, the Indians are 12-3 in their last 15 games following a loss. Plesac has been brilliant since entering the rotation as he has a 3.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP through 11 starts and that is with a start in Baltimore where he allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings. He has been strong at home with a 2.86 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in five starts with Cleveland winning four of those. Many will question whether his strong ERA can continue to stave off his 5.10 xFIP over the long term. Opposing batters have hit him hard on just 37.4 percent of batted balls, and he is limiting fly balls to 37.8 percent, with a 42.4 percent ground ball rate. Houston counters with Jose Urquidy who will be making just his fifth career start. After a pair lackluster outings to open, he has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts covering 13 innings. This will be his biggest road test of the season thus far. 10* (968) Cleveland Indians |
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07-30-19 | Cubs v. Cardinals +111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 111 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The home team has dominated this series this season, winning all nine meetings, and we can expect that to continue in this series opener. The Cubs snapped a 1-5 run with a win at Milwaukee on Sunday as the 11 runs scored were the most since July 4th as this offense has been in a slump, averaging just 4.3 rpg in the 15 games between those 11-run efforts. Chicago is favored tonight and has no business being the favorite with its 20-31 road record, including a 5-14 record against divisional opponents. Additionally, the Cubs are 7-16 in their last 23 road games against teams with a winning home record. St. Louis lost the final two games of its series against Houston which put a halt to a 12-2 run that temporarily put it into first place in the National League Central. The Cardinals have won four straight series openers and are banking on Adam Wainwright to keep that going, his last two starts have not been good but both were on the road where he possesses a 7.16 ERA and 1.61 WHIP in 10 starts. At home however, he has a 2.33 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Yu Darvish put together a pair of good starts after the break but allowed four runs in six innings last time out against the Giants. His 4.07 ERA on the road is nothing is nothing special nor is the Cubs 3-7 record in his 10 starts on the highway. 10* (908) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-30-19 | Twins -136 v. Marlins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Minnesota took three of four against the White Sox to maintain its lead over the surging Indians. The Twins are two games ahead of Cleveland in the American League Central after leading the division by as many as 10.5 games in June so every game has become big at this point. Minnesota is 33-20 on the road which is the best road record in baseball so getting a price like this against the worst team in the National League is worth it. The Twins are 11-4 in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage below .400. We played against the Marlins last night and lost as they put up six runs in the second inning in the 11-6 victory which won the series against the Diamondbacks three games to one. Despite the recent hot stretch, we are not sold on Miami especially against a team that is 23 games over .500 on the season. The Marlins are 8-20 in their last 28 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Jake Odorizzi gets the ball for Minnesota and while he is coming off his worst start of the season where he allowed nine runs in just four innings but that came against the Yankees. He is 2-1 with a 3.81 ERA in five career starts against the Marlins and he is even better in two career starts at Marlins Park where he is 1-0 with a 0.90 ERA. Zac Gallen is coming off his best career start but that was against the White Sox and this marks the perfect time to go against him. 9* (925) Minnesota Twins |
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07-30-19 | Giants v. Phillies -122 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Phillies are keeping pace in the National League East but are still six games behind the Braves so it will take a big push over the final two months to make that move. They are more likely to compete for a Wild Card spot as they are just one game out of the second place spot and only a game and a half behind the Nationals for the top spot. The Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 games when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. San Francisco is surprisingly part of the National League Wild Card race after struggling at 12 games below .500 as recently as June 29. But the Giants have won 19 of 24 games and they are a stunning 7-0 in extra-inning games since the All-Star break. San Francisco is 11-2 on the road over this stretch but six games came at San Diego while another four came at Colorado where anything can happen. The Giants are 55-113 in their last 168 road games against teams with a winning record. Tyler Beede gets the ball for the Giants and he had a three-game quality start streak snapped last time out against the Cubs and while he has been solid at home, he has a 5.54 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the road. Drew Smyly will be making his second start for Philadelphia after a successful debut after coming in from Texas as he allowed one run in six innings against the Pirates. 9* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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07-29-19 | Diamondbacks +101 v. Marlins | Top | 6-11 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Arizona looks to salvage the series finale on Monday and earn a split which would be big as it heads to New York to face the Yankees for a two-game set. Now at .500 on the season, the Diamondbacks are very much alive in the Wild Card race in the National League, sitting 3.5 games out. The Diamondbacks are 4-0 in their last four games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Miami has won four of its last five games but still possesses the worst record in the National League as well as the worst home record at 20-33. The Marlins are 1-6 in their last seven games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Caleb Smith gets the ball for Miami and he is having a fine season with a 3.30 ERA and 1.02 WHIP and he has allowed three runs or less in four straight starts. He is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, beating the White Sox on Tuesday as he allowed just two hits, two walks and one run in seven innings, striking out nine. Arizona is second in baseball in hitting lefties and third in slugging percentage. Merrill Kelly counters for Arizona and while he is coming off an awful start against Baltimore, he did allow three runs or less in eight of his previous nine starts. He also has the edge of never having faced Miami. 10* (953) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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07-28-19 | Giants -111 v. Padres | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. We won with the Padres last night but will be going against them today as the advantageous pitching matchup on Saturday goes opposite for them, on Sunday. San Diego partially halted a 3-10 run with the 5-1 victory while snapping an eight-game home losing streak. The offense has averaged just 3.6 rpg over its last 10 games and the Padres are 2-7 in their last nine games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. San Francisco is still 17-5 in its last 22 games and remains very much in the hunt in the National League Wild Card race. The offense has managed just four runs over the last three games but we can expect a breakout here. The Giants are 6-0 in their last six games following a loss. Madison Bumgarner is still rumored to be on the trading block but that is becoming more unlikely with San Francisco back in playoff contention. He has been exceptional of late with a 2.00 ERA over his last six starts with the Giants suffering just one loss in that stretch. The Giants are 6-1 in his last seven starts against teams with a losing record. Adrian Morejon has made just one career start and it lasted only 2.1 innings. The Giants are 5-0 in their last five games against left-handed starters. Here, we play on teams batting .165 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.20 the last 10 games. This situation is 150-85 (63.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (913) San Francisco Giants |
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07-27-19 | Giants v. Padres -129 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. This line came out late due to the Padres late starting pitching announcement. The Giants roll continues as they have now won 17 of their last 21 games and are sitting just two and a half games out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. They are the hottest team in baseball that has come quietly without a lot of fanfare but find themselves in a tough spot tonight. San Diego has lost 10 of its last 13 games including four straight at home dating back to its last homestand and going back further, the Padres have lost their last eight home games. That is keeping this number down however in what is a favorable pitching spot. Cal Quantrill has pitched to a 3.76 ERA this season in 52.2 innings, 41.1 of which have been in the role of a starter. He has a 1.18 WHIP, possesses great control and has strikeout upside. On the other side, Shaun Anderson has been poor with a 4.91 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in 13 starts which includes a 5.45 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in seven road starts and yet he has only two losses on the entire season. This is due to above average run support that includes 7.8 rpg over his last five starts. This production will not last. 10* (964) San Diego Padres |
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07-26-19 | Yankees -122 v. Red Sox | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -122 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK YANKEES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Masahiro Tanaka is coming off his worst career start as he allowed seven first inning runs and 12 runs overall in just 3.1 innings to hand Boston a 19-3 victory. The Yankees have allowed 54 runs over their last five games and they hope to have that come to an end tonight which is more than possible. The Yankees are 30-6 in their last 36 games after allowing nine runs or more. Boston has now won three of its last four games and is now just one game out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox are 7-15 in their last 22 home games after a win by 12 runs or more. James Paxton has not been the pitcher the Yankees had hoped when acquired from Seattle but he has had more ups than downs. He has allowed two runs or less in five of his last seven starts and the Yankees are 6-1 in his last seven starts with four days of rest. Andrew Cashner was acquired from Baltimore and his two starts in Boston have been anything but good as he has allowed nine runs over 11 innings and those were against the Blue Jays and Orioles. Here, we play on road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher that are batting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a slugging percentage of .480 or better over their last five games. This situation is 36-8 (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (917) New York Yankees |
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07-25-19 | Twins v. White Sox +128 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Game of the Week. After dropping two of three games against the Yankees, Minnesota is in a tough letdown spot hitting the road for a four-game set against the White Sox. It has been a struggle of late as the Twins are 3-7 in their last 10 games while going 1-4 in their last five games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Chicago lost two of three against Miami to open this 10-game homestand and the White Sox are still a respectable 26-22 at home. The White Sox are 15-5 in home games against division opponents this season. Lucas Giolito gets the ball for Chicago and after posting a bad outing in his last start prior to the All-Stat Break, he has posted two straight quality starts. He has a 3.12 ERA and 1.09 WHIP on the season and taking out two poor starts against the Cubs, his Era drops to 2.33 in his other 17 starts. The White Sox are 7-1 in his last eight starts following a quality outing in his last start. Jose Berrios is having another successful season but he has been unable to go far of late as he has tossed just 15.2 innings over his last three starts. Here, we play on teams after scoring one run or less going up against an opponent after scoring and allowing six runs or more two straight games. This situation is 52-27 (65.8 percent) since 1997. Additionally, we play against American League teams averaging 5.1 or more rpg against a pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better, after scoring and allowing six runs or more two straight games. This situation is 49-24 (67.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) Chicago White Sox |
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07-24-19 | Rangers -132 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -132 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. Texas snapped an eight-game losing streak with a win over Seattle last night as it jumped on the Mariners for six runs in the first three innings to cruise from there. The Rangers are back to a game over .500 and are 6.5 games back for the final Wild Card spot in the American League with still a third of the season left. Texas is 16-6 this season as a favorite of -150 or less while going 4-1 in its last five games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Seattle has lost three of four games while going a miserable 4-16 over its last 20 games. The Mariners 32 home losses are third most in the American League and going back, they are 8-24 in their last 32 home games against teams with a winning record. Mike Leake was unable to get out of the first inning two starts back against the Angels and faced them in his next start and nearly tossed a perfect game. We can expect him to regress after that effort as he has been wildly inconsistent all season. Mike Minor is coming off a pair of average outings but both were against the Astros, one of the best hitting teams in baseball. He has dominated Seattle in two outings, allowing just three runs in 13 innings while striking out 24. 10* (915) Texas Rangers |
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07-23-19 | Cubs v. Giants +104 | 4-5 | Win | 104 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Plays. The Giants have been on a role with 15 wins over their last 18 games and have played themselves right into the National League Wild Card race. They are two games out of the second spot and have just Milwaukee and Philadelphia in their way. San Francisco is 17-4 in its last 21 games against National League teams scoring 4.5 or more rpg. The Cubs have dropped two straight games but still have a game and a half lead over the Cardinals in the National League Central. The road has been a struggle for Chicago as it is 18-28 and going back, it is 4-15 in its last 19 road games against teams with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better. Yu Darvish has put together back-to-back quality starts as he shut out both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati over six innings each but he has been horribly inconsistent this season. Madison Bumgarner has allowed two runs or less in five straight starts, posting a 1.55 ERA in those games. Here, we play on National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .250 or worse on the season, while hitting .280 or better over their last 20 games. This situation is 59-31 (65.6 percent) since 1997. 9* (960) San Francisco Giants |
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07-23-19 | Reds v. Brewers -132 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Plays. Cincinnati blew a three-run lead last night in Milwaukee but managed to pull out the win thanks to a two-run ninth inning. The Reds are still just 20-29 on the road for the season and are well back in the Wild Card race in the National League. Cincinnati is 2-10 against the money line off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog this season. The Brewers are two games behind the Cubs in the National League Central and just a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. Milwaukee is 30-22 at home while going 15-3 in its last 18 games off a loss to a division rival as a home favorite. Zach Davies has quietly put together a sensational season as he has a 2.79 ERA in 20 starts and that Era is fifth lowest in the National League. He has been exceptionally hot of late with a 0.77 ERA in his past four outings, covering 23.1 innings. The Brewers are 22-7 in his last 29 home starts against teams with a losing record. Tanner Roark counters for the Reds and he is having a strong season with a 3.97 ERA but a 1.37 WHIP shows it has not been great. He has now gone four straight starts without a quality outing and he has a 7.16 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last three starts. 10* (958) Milwaukee Brewers |
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07-23-19 | Phillies v. Tigers +134 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Plays. The Phillies look to build off a series win at Pittsburgh but they are still just 22-27 on the highway this season. Philadelphia is 9-24 in its last 33 road games after scoring three runs or less in two straight games while going 0-7 in their last seven games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Detroit snapped a six-game losing streak with a win over Toronto on Sunday as its miserable season goes on. While they are in rebuilding mode, the Tigers can be played in favorable spots and this is one of those. Matthew Boyd has struggled of late with the long ball but he has still been missing bats as well with 42 strikeouts over his last four games. Detroit is 7-1 in his last eight games as a home underdog of +125 to +175. Aaron Nola is having a fine season but he does have a 5.08 ERA on the road. Going back, the Phillies are 1-4 in his last five starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Here we play against National League teams averaging 4.7 or more rpg with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season going up against a good AL starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better. This situation is 75-49 (60.5 percent) since 1997. 9* (972) Detroit Tigers |
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07-22-19 | Yankees v. Twins +112 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 112 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The Yankees had a five-game winning streak snapped with a loss against Colorado yesterday and head out on a seven-game roadtrip. They have been solid on the road for sure but they have no business being a road favorite here based on who they are facing and the pitching matchup. The Yankees are 2-5 in their last seven road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Minnesota has opened this homestand with a 2-4 record but it is coming off a win on Sunday to maintain its three-game lead over the Indians in the American League Central. The Twins are 30-19 at home and they are 5-1 in their last six home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Martin Perez takes the hill for Minnesota and while he has struggled on the road, he has a 3.49 ERA and 1.18 WHIP at home. The Twins are 5-1 in his last six starts after allowing five runs or more in their previous game while the Yankees are hitting just .241 on the road against left-handed starters. C.C. Sabathia is a similar pitcher where he has excelled at home but struggled on the road where he has a 5.84 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in seven road starts. The Yankees are 0-4 in his last four road starts against teams with a winning record while Minnesota is 19-6 against starting pitchers who gives up one or more homeruns per start this season. 10* (914) Minnesota Twins |
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07-21-19 | Nationals v. Braves -145 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Atlanta has lost two of the first three games of this series with Washington but still holds a 5.5-game lead over the Nationals in the National League East. Evening the series and upping that lead would be big for the Braves which are 20-8 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Washington is just one game over .500 on the road after two of the three wins in Atlanta and going back, the Nationals are 19-32 (-against the money line after five or more consecutive road games. Atlanta gives the ball to Kevin Gausman, who started for Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday and struck out 10 in seven innings while allowing two runs. He was making a rehab start in his recovery from plantar fasciitis in his right foot and this is his first start for the Braves since June 10th. Joe Ross will be making his first start for the Nationals after 17 bullpen appearances and spending some time down in the minors. Here, we play against National League underdogs that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse, after allowing four runs or less three straight games. This situation is 33-6 (84.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (954) Atlanta Braves |
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07-20-19 | Cardinals v. Reds -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Cincinnati built a 7-0 lead yesterday but allowed 10 runs in the sixth inning and a late rally fell one run short. The Reds have now lost four straight games and are now just one game over .500 at home but the line is in their favor with their ace taking the hill. St. Louis has won three straight games to keep pace with the Cubs in the National League Central, 2.5 games out. The Cardinals are still four games under .500 on the road and going back, they are 8-19 against the money line in their last 27 games after scoring nine runs or more. Luis Castillo is having a great season with a 2.41 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 19 starts which includes a 1.69 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 10 home starts. He has tossed three straight quality starts and the Reds are 15-7 in his last 22 home starts. Miles Mikolas gets the ball for St. Louis and he is coming off one of his best outings of the season as he tossed a complete game shutout against the Pirates. That was at home though and he has a 7.40 ERA and 1.67 WHIP in nine road starts. Here, we play against road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 off two straight road wins against a division rival going up against an opponent off a one run loss versus a division rival. This situation is 44-18 (71 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (908) Cincinnati Reds |
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07-19-19 | Red Sox v. Orioles +230 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 230 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Boston took three of four to start the week against Toronto as it remains two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League. The Red Sox have been much better on the road than at home and that is playing into this line which is overpriced. The Orioles have not been hitting well since the All-Star break but snapped out of that with a 9-2 victory in their most recent game against Washington on Wednesday. That snapped a three-game slide and their best starter takes the hill tonight as John Means gets the ball and the All-Star is coming off one of his worst outings of the season as Tampa Bay touched him up for six runs in six innings five days ago. He has a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP and that drops to a 2.50 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at home where his five wins account to over a quarter of the Orioles wins at home. David Price is having a solid season but only three of 10 road starts have been quality outings and Boston is just 5-5 in those starts which does not justify this number. Here, we play against American League teams hitting between .265 to .279 going up against a starting pitcher with an ERA of 4.20 or better, with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games. This situation is 44-15 (74.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Baltimore Orioles |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -128 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the MINNESOTA TWINS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Oakland has won six straight games and is 22-7 over its last 29 games to move to 4.5 games of the Astros in the American League West. Additionally, they are in a tie with the Indians for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. While the A's have been surging, Minnesota has been in a bit of a slump including losses in three straight games. After having a commanding lead in the American League Central, the Twins are just four games ahead of Cleveland, which has won four in a row. Going back, the Twins are 21-7 in their last 28 games after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Kyle Gibson gets the ball for Minnesota and he is coming off a poor outing against the Indians where he allowed three runs in 3.2 innings. He has been solid at home with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight starts and the Twins are 9-1 in his last 10 starts following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. Mike Fiers counters for Oakland and he has been on a role with 10 straight quality outings. Most of those dominant starts have come at home however and overall, he has a 5.03 ERA on the road. Here, we play against teams after a game where they hit five or more home runs, starting a pitcher who gave up earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 32-18 (64 percent) since 1997. 10* (922) Minnesota Twins |
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07-17-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +110 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Game of the Week. Arizona won the first game of this two-game series 9-2 on Tuesday night, beating Rangers ace Lance Lynn which snapped a two-game skid for the Diamondbacks. While well out of the National League West race, they are still just a game out of the Wild Card spot in the National League and that is playing into this line for sure. The Diamondbacks are 3-7 in their last 10 games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. The Rangers have lost nine of their past 13 games after reaching a season-high 10 games above .500, although they are also chasing a Wild Card spot. Texas is just four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and despite three straight home losses, the Rangers are 31-20 at home yet some into tonight as home underdogs. The Rangers are 7-1 in their last eight games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Jesse Chavez has pitched well since entering the rotation and while he is coming off his worst outing, that came against the third best hitting team in baseball. Texas has won both of his home starts this season. Robbie Ray is known for strikeout potential but he has been inconsistent beyond that with a 4.05 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his 12 road starts. The Diamondbacks are 0-5 in his last five starts with four days of rest. Here, we play against National League teams averaging 5.0 or more rpg going up against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better, after a win by four runs or more. This situation is 67-31 (68.4 percent) since 1997. 10* (980) Texas Rangers |
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07-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -128 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO CUBS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Cubs lost the opener of this series on Monday 6-3 as they blew a 3-1 lead by allowing five runs over the final four innings. Despite the loss, the Cubs are 50-18 in their last 68 home games against teams with a losing record while going 14-4 revenging a loss as a home favorite this season. The Reds snapped a 1-4 streak with the win yesterday and it was just their 19th road win of the season. Cincinnati has lost five of its last seven games following a win. Alec Mills will be making his season debut for the Cubs. Though he has not looked great this season at Triple-A Iowa, he is capable of missing bats and his 6-2 record is an indication that he has at least kept his team in most games. He has given up at least four earned in four of his last 10 starts, but he has allowed two or fewer in five more. Anthony DeSclafani counters for Cincinnati and he has struggled with a 4.26 ERA in 17 starts including a 4.63 ERA in nine road starts. The Reds are 6-13 in his last 19 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game while the Cubs are 18-5 in home games against a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits per start this season. 10* (906) Chicago Cubs |
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07-15-19 | White Sox -115 v. Royals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. The White Sox will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak after getting swept at the Oakland A's over the weekend. The Royals took two of three against the Tigers but dropped the finale on Sunday and comes in at just 18-29 at home. Lucas Giolito will start the opener of a four-game series in Kansas City on Monday and this is his first start since prior to the All-Star Break so he is extremely fresh. He got lit up in his last outing against the Cubs but faces a favorite opponent tonight. He has overpowered the Royals in four starts this season, going 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA. He's racked up 34 strikeouts in 25 innings in those outings. Over his career against Kansas City, he is 6-0 with a 2.13 ERA in 10 starts. He is opposed by Jakob Junis who has been up and down this season, mostly the latter. He has a 5.33 ERA and 1.45 WHIP on the season and his numbers are home are slightly worse, a 5.89 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over 10 starts. Here, we play against American League home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season, after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more in a game. This situation is 40-16 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (967) Chicago White Sox |
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07-14-19 | Dodgers v. Red Sox +101 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
This is a play on the BOSTON RED SOX for our MLB Sunday Star Attraction. The Dodgers snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 11-2 win yesterday against Chris Sale to improve to 24-21 on the road. Clearly, they are a much better home team than road team and going back, the Dodgers are 1-4 in their last five Interleague road games. With the loss, Boston snapped a five-game winning streak as the offense was held in check for the first time in a long time. The Red Sox averaged 8.2 rpg during that winning streak and they are in a good spot for a bounce back. Los Angeles hands the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu who is having a remarkable season. He has been unbeatable at home, literally, as the Dodgers are 9-0 in his nine home starts but are just 3-5 in his eight road outings. Going back, the Dodgers are 3-15 in his last 18 road starts against teams with a winning record. David Price counters for Boston and he is also having a very solid season with a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and both of those averages go down at Fenway Park. The Red Sox are 25-5 in his last 30 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 averaging 5.0 or more rpg against an American League starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 or better with a starting pitcher allowing 1.75 or fewer walks per start. This situation is 40-19 (67.8 percent) since 1997. 10* (930) Boston Red Sox |
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07-13-19 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals lost the series opener last night to make it three straight losses going back before the All-Star Break and they are now three games behind the Cubs in the National League Central. St. Louis is still a solid 26-20 at home and going back, the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 games when their opponent allows two runs or less in their previous game. Arizona is now a half-game out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League after its fourth straight win but it has a challenge tonight. The Diamondbacks are 4-15 in their last 19 games after allowing three runs or less in four straight games. While his numbers do not jump off the paper, Dakota Hudson has had a solid season in his first in the rotation. He has a 3.51 ERA and that is mostly due to consistency as in 17 starts, he has allowed more than three earned runs only once. After allowing eight home runs in his first four starts, Hudson has allowed just five home runs over his last 13 starts. Additionally, he has posted four straight quality outings at home and the Cardinals are 6-2 in his eight home starts. Merrill Kelly has had a decent season but not nearly as consistent and he has struggled on the road to a 4.94 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 10 starts. 10* (960) St. Louis Cardinals |
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07-12-19 | Twins v. Indians -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
This is a play on the CLEVELAND INDIANS for our MLB Game of the Month. Cleveland closed the first half with six straight wins to move to within 5.5 games of the Twins in the American League Central. The Indians have made up a decent amount of ground since mid-June and have an ideal chance to shrink the deficit even more this weekend. They are 8-1 in their last nine series openers. The Twins have been the surprise of the American League but they have faltered of late, going 9-11 over their last 20 games. Mike Clevinger made a pair of starts after getting activated and they were dreadful but he bounced back in his previous start before the break by blanking the Royals over six innings, allowing just four hits and no walks while striking out nine. All three of those starts were on the road and prior to getting hurt, he allowed no runs in two starts at home covering 12 innings. Kyle Gibson is having a decent but unspectacular season with a 4.09 ERA overall including a 4.47 ERA in nine road starts. He has a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts against Cleveland. Here, we play on American League home favorites of -110 or higher with an OBP of .320 or worse against a starting pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or better, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 58-17 (77.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (920) Cleveland Indians |
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07-11-19 | Astros v. Rangers +129 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 129 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Rangers slumped a bit heading into the All-Star Break but they still enter Thursday just three games behind Cleveland for the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The home success has put them where they are as they are 29-17 at Globe Life Park in Arlington and going back, the Rangers are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning road record. Houston has a comfortable 7.5-game lead in the American League West over Oakland thanks to an American League best 33-14 record at home. The Astros are five games over .500 on the road however, they are 3-8 in their last 11 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Lance Lynn will start Thursday for Texas and he has been on a roll. He is second on the Rangers in bWAR (3.9) and he is 5-0 with a 2.85 ERA over his last seven starts with 53 strikeouts and just four walks over 47.1 innings. Houston counters with Framber Valdez and he has not been as good. After opening June with a pair of quality starts, he closed June with a 15.63 ERA in his last two starts covering just 6.1 innings. The Rangers are 7-2 in their last nine home games against left-handed starters. Here, we play against road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher off a one run win over a division rival, with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 46-24 (65.7 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Texas Rangers |
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07-07-19 | Rockies -135 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES for our MLB Game of the Week. Arizona has won the first two games of this series to pull even with Colorado in the Wild Card standings in the National League as both teams sit at .500 with one game left heading into the break. This has not been a god spot for the Diamondbacks which are 6-16 in their last 22 home games following two or more consecutive wins. The Rockies have lost five in a row as well as 10 of their last 14 games and will be looking for their four All-Stars at the top of their batting order to get something going before the All-Star break. Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado and David Dahl are a combined 4-28 with 12 strikeouts in the series. They get to do so against Alex Young who is making just his second ever start and his first at pitcher-friendly Chase Field after his debut was at AT&T Park against the Giants, the worst hitting team in baseball. German Marquez counters for Colorado who has been excellent on the road with a 3.06 ERA and an even better 0.88 WHIP. The Rockies are 13-3 in his last 16 starts with four days of rest. Here, we play on National League favorites with a moneyline of -125 to -175 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season, with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games. This situation is 61-15 (80.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (959) Colorado Rockies |
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07-06-19 | Cubs v. White Sox +112 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX for our MLB Saturday Sweet Spot. The Cubs have opened just 2-5 on this current roadtrip and are 17-26 on the road for the season compared to 29-16 at home. Jose Quintana is responsible for both of those wins but the rest of the staff has been trash as Chicago has allowed 8.6 rpg in the other five games. The Cubs are 5-13 in their last 18 road games against teams with a winning home record. The White Sox are coming off a pair of series wins at home over the Twins and Tigers and improved play at Guaranteed Rate Field, where they are 13-6 in their past 19 games, has helped the club approach the break-even mark. Chicago is a respectable six games out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League and the White Sox are 5-0 in their last five games following an off day. Jon Lester has had a decent yet underperforming season and he has really struggled of late. He had a 1.16 ERA through his first seven games but since then he has posted a 7.02 ERA over his last nine starts. After opening the season with three straight quality road starts, the highway has not been kind to him as in the four starts since then, he has posted a 9.15 ERA covering 20.2 innings. Lucas Giolito has allowed three runs or less in 12 of his last 13 starts and while the one bad outing was against the Cubs, it was on the road. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP in eight home starts where the White Sox have won his last six. Here, we play against teams after a win by eight runs or more against opponent after a combined score of 15 runs or more two straight games. This situation is 32-13 (71.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (930) Chicago White Sox |
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07-06-19 | Yankees v. Rays -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS for our MLB Saturday Afternoon Dominator. The Yankees have won both games in the series by identical 8-4 scores, and each victory occurred in extra innings after they blew a lead. New York has now won three straight games and eight of its last nine games to increase its lead to 8.5 games over the Rays in the American League East. On top of losing the first two games of this series and six straight to the Yankees, Tampa Bay also is 8-12 in its past 20 games, going from a half-game division lead to the current large deficit. The Rays had won four straight games prior to this series so all was not bad and they look to turn it around with ace Blake Snell. He was lit up for 13 runs in 3.2 innings in a combined two starts but those were both on the road where he has struggled. He bounced back with a quality outing in his last start at home against the Rangers, allowing two runs on three hits in six innings while striking out 12 and he has posted a 3.32 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in eight home starts. Going back, the Rays are 17-4 in his last 21 home starts against teams with a winning record. C.C. Sabathia is making his first start since June 24 and that is likely not good as he was coming off a pair of quality outings. Those were at home and he has a 6.30 ERA on the road and the Yankees are 1-6 in his last 7 road starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play against American League teams with a .450 or better slugging percentage and batting .300 or better over their last 15 games going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better. This situation is 32-15 (68.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (918) Tampa Bay Rays |
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07-05-19 | Marlins +170 v. Braves | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the MIAMI MARLINS for our MLB Friday Sweet Spot. Atlanta is coming off a huge series against the Phillies where it took the final two games to maintain a six-game lead over Washington in the National League East and increase its lead to 6.5 games over Philadelphia. This could spell letdown tonight yet the Braves are significant favorites. Miami has dropped four straight games following a three-game sweep in Washington to start the week but it is in good position to steal Game One with a solid pitching matchup. Jordan Yamamoto has been excellent since entering the rotation despite coming off his worst outing. He is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in four starts with the Marlins winning all four of those. Julio Teheran counters for the Braves and after a very solid stretch, the end of June was not good as he posted an 11.91 ERA and 2.74 WHIP over his last three starts. Overall, only six of his 18 starts have been quality outings. Here, we play against National League home favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (that are averaging 5.0 rpg on the season, after scoring 12 runs or more. This situation is 31-21 (59.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (955) Miami Marlins |
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07-04-19 | Angels v. Rangers -111 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Texas play yesterday turned into no action for most as Griffin Canning was scratched by the Angels late in the day. The Angels won for the second consecutive game since honoring No. 45 to move back to a game over .500 but going back, the Angels are 15-37 in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record. Texas has now lost four straight games but is still just a game and a half out of the second Wild Card spot in the American League. The Rangers are 15-6 in their last 21 games when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Part of the reason for the play against Texas yesterday was because of Canning who has been good but only one of five road starts has resulted in a quality outing. Lance Lynn has been on a roll with quality outings in nine of his last 10 starts and he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 17 starts. After going 4-0 in June with a 2.90 ERA, Lynn will be trying to win four straight starts for the first time in just over two years. 10* (922) Texas Rangers |
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07-03-19 | Angels v. Rangers +106 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 29 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Wednesday Sweet Spot. The Angels won a very emotional game last night in honor of Tyler Skaggs but are still a game under .500 on the road yet come into tonight as a significant road favorite. The win snapped a three-game losing streak which came after four straight wins and despite the victory, the Angels are 9-23 in their last 32 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Texas has lost three straight games following a six-game winning streak but it still comes in at 28-16 at home while winning nine of its last 13 games following a loss. Ariel Jurado has been solid since entering the Rangers rotation as he has had just one bad outing in eight starts and take that one game away against the Reds and his ERA is 2.96 in his other seven starts. Jaime Barria is making the start over Canning and it is still a play. He has a 5.55 ERA over six games and two starts. Here, we play against American League teams when the moneyline is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.10 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.40 to 1.500 on the season. This situation is 93-52 (64.1 percent) since 1997. 10* (968) Texas Rangers |
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07-02-19 | Giants v. Padres -151 | 10-4 | Loss | -151 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Padres will be out for some immediate payback as they got lit up 13-2 last night to suffer their second straight loss following a four-game winning streak. San Diego is sill 5-2 in its last seven home games. The Giants have won two straight games but it will be tough getting past that as they have not won more than two straight games since early June. Tyler Beede has shown a couple good flashes but he has struggled mostly with a 6.45 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in seven starts including a 7.11 ERA and 1.93 WHIP on the road. Matt Strahm has been much better than his 4.95 ERA indicates as he has a 1.23 WHIP including 1.14 at home. Here, we play against road underdogs that are hitting .230 or worse over their last 15 games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three starts. This situation is 75-29 (72.1 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (912) San Diego Padres |
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07-02-19 | Astros v. Rockies -126 | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Houston was on a 2-9 slide before sweeping the Mariners over the weekend but gets a tough matchup to try and build off of that. The Astros have dropped six of their last seven road games to fall to a pedestrian 22-19 on the highway. Colorado is coming off a home split with the Dodgers but it is still a solid 24-12 over its last 36 home games after a 0-5 start to open the season. German Marquez gets the ball for the Rockies and while he has a 4.29 ERA, he backs that up with a 1.21 WHIP. Colorado is 25-7 in his last 32 starts as a home favorite of -110 or higher. Jose Urquidy missed the 2017 season due to Tommy John surgery but returned to pitch 57.1 innings of 2.35 ERA ball in Class-A last season. This year, he has posted a combined 3.40 ERA with 12.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and 0.94 HR/9. Urquidy is more of a fly-ball pitcher, so drawing his first MLB assignment at Coors Field is not necessarily ideal. 10* (928) Colorado Rockies |
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07-02-19 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays +148 | 10-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Toronto celebrated Canada Day with an 11-4 win over the Royals to take three of four and it looks to build off that facing a road-weary Red Sox team. It has been a struggle for the Blue Jays this season but they have been playing better including taking two of three against Boston last week. The Red Sox have lost three straight games including a pair in London against the Yankees where they allowed 29 runs. David Price has been solid for the most part but only two of eight road starts have been quality which brings the poor Boston bullpen into play. Trent Thornton does not have great numbers but he has had a tough run of four straight road games. Here, we play against American League road teams 5.1 or more rpg against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70), batting .340 or better over their last three games. This situation is 30-11 (73.2 percent) since 1997. 9* (914) Toronto Blue Jays |
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07-01-19 | Brewers v. Reds -103 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Milwaukee closed out a 5-5 homestand with a pair of wins over the Pirates and it hits the road where it has lost six of its last eight games on the highway. Additionally, the Brewers are 4-12 in their last 16 road games in the second half of the season when playing against a team with a losing record. Cincinnati opened its homestand with a series win over the Cubs to improve to 21-18 at home on the season. The Reds are 6-1 in their last seven home games against teams with a winning record. Cincinnati sends Tyler Mahle to the hill who possesses a 4.35 ERA but his 1.22 WHIP is a better indicator of how he has been pitching. He has had bad luck on the road with the Reds going 0-10 in his 10 road starts but they are 4-1 and he has a 2.96 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in those five games. The Brewers counter with Adrian Houser who has made three spot starts. In his last outing, Houser needed 64 pitches to record six outs and in those three starts, he has a 9.00 ERA. Here, we play against National League road teams with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better on the season after a combined score of four runs or less two straight games. This situation is 39-14 ATS (73.6 percent) since 1997. 10* (954) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-30-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +106 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 106 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. The Giants' homestand, which began with two losses in three games against Colorado, hasn't been what they needed to get any sort of momentum going. They are 2-4 heading into the finale following a 4-3 loss yesterday after nearly coming back from a 4-0 deficit in the ninth inning. Arizona remains two games out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League as it has won five of its last seven games but faces a tough test today. Madison Bumgarner had tossed five straight quality outings before getting lit up against the Dodgers two starts back. He bounced back with another quality outing in his last starts against the Rockies and he has been much better here with a 3.88 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in nine home starts. Robby Ray has been decent this season yet inconsistent. He has struggled in his last three starts, going 0-2 while allowing 11 runs and 13 hits in 18.1 innings. The Giants are 5-1 in their last six games against starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. 10* (910) San Francisco Giants |
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06-29-19 | A's v. Angels -140 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS for our MLB Game of the Week. The Angels had a four-game winning streak snapped last night in a 7-2 loss despite outhitting Oakland 8-6. The loss also snapped a five-game home winning streak against teams with a winning record and they are in good shape to get back in the win column with Justin Upton and Andrelton Simmons back in the lineup after having last night off. Oakland has won three of four on this current roadtrip but it is still just .500 on the road and going back, Oakland is 2-5 in its last seven games after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Tyler Skaggs gets the ball for Los Angeles and he has been on a roll. In a win over Toronto on June 18, he gave up just one run and three hits in 7.1 innings. In his latest start, he threw five scoreless innings in a 6-4 victory over St. Louis on Sunday. The Angels are 5-0 in his last five starts against teams with a winning record. Oakland counters with Brett Anderson who got crushed last time out, allowing seven runs in three innings against Tampa Bay. Oakland is 4-9 in his last 13 starts after allowing two runs or less in its previous game. Here, we play on home teams with a starting pitcher allowing less than 1.75 walks per start after a game where the bullpen threw eight or more innings. This situation is 72-34 (67.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (978) Los Angeles Angels |
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06-28-19 | Rangers v. Rays -128 | 5-0 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
This is a play on the TAMPA BAY RAYS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Tampa Bay salvaged the series finale in Minnesota to conclude a 3-7 roadtrip that has put it 6.5 games behind the Yankees in the American League East. The Rays are 6-1 in their last seven home games following a road trip of seven or more days. Texas has won five straight games to move into the second Wild Card spot in the American League and while it is coming off a road sweep to open this roadtrip, it came against the 26-50 Tigers and going back, the Rangers are 6-22 in their last 28 road games against teams with a winning home record. Yonny Chirinos gets the start for the Rays and it will be big for him to last a while after the 18-inning marathon yesterday. Chirinos has pitched in 16 games this season and the last six appearances have all been starts where he's allowed three earned runs or fewer in five of them including four straight quality outings. Lance Lynn has an eight-game quality outing stopped after allowing five runs against the White Sox and has a tough matchup here against the fifth best hitting team in the American League. 9* (920) Tampa Bay Rays |
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06-28-19 | Cubs v. Reds +105 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 105 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
This is a play on the CINCINNATI REDS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Cubs were able to salvage a split against the Braves with a come-from-behind victory and they improved to 29-16 at home but now they hit the road where they are just 15-21. Going back, the Cubs are 2-8 in their last 10 road games against teams with a winning home record. Cincinnati closed out its roadtrip with four straight losses to fall to 17-25 on the season away from home. This is now a big stretch as the Reds begin a nine-game, 10-day homestand with much at stake, as the results of this stretch heading into the All-Star break could go a long way in determining the club's future. Cole Hamels has been red hot with five straight quality starts but has not been as effective on the road with just four quality outings in eight starts. Sonny Gray has allowed three runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts and the Reds are 6-0 in his last six starts against teams with a winning record. Here, we play on National League teams that are allowing four or less rpg on the season, after two straight losses by four runs or more. This situation is 36-13 (73.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (902) Cincinnati Reds |
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06-28-19 | Indians v. Orioles +175 | 0-13 | Win | 175 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the BALTIMORE ORIOLES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Cleveland is coming off a 5-1 homestand and is now eight games behind Minnesota in the American League Central. The Indians are just one game over .500 on the road and come in as massive favorites for obvious reasons but there is not a huge edge here. Baltimore has the worst record in baseball at 22-58 including a dismal 9-30 at home following a pair of losses against the Padres but the Orioles have the right pitcher on hill tonight. John Means has been sensational at Camden Yards with a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP over seven starts and he has accounted for four of the nine wins at home. Mike Clevinger is coming off a rough outing and the Indians are 4-10 in his last 14 road starts. Here, we play against American League favorites with a money line of -150 or more with a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.25 or better on the season going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.20 or better on the season. This situation is 89-88 (50.3 percent) over the last five seasons. While that percentage seems low, it has gained a massive +59.3 units. 9* (916) Baltimore Orioles |
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06-27-19 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -105 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. Arizona won three of its last four games from its recent homestand after a six-game losing streak but it has struggled against teams like this, going 3-11 on the season against teams allowing 5.0 or more rpg. The Giants have had their own struggles but have been competitive at home going 5-3 over their last eight games and they have won six of their last seven series openers. Tyler Beede has not pitched well this season since being added to the rotation but the schedule against him has been brutal as five of his six starts have come on the road. But the results for the team have worked out as the Giants are 5-1 in his starts this season, having scored 31 runs in those games. Arizona hands the ball to Alex Young who is making his Major League debut. Young was 4-3 with a 6.09 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 20 games (eight starts) for Reno and this is a more of a desperate move than anything for Arizona which has gotten nothing from the fifth spot in its rotation. Here, we play against National League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 that are averaging 4.7 or more rpg with a slugging percentage of .350 or worse over their last five games going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or higher. This situation is 55-20 (73.3 percent) since 1997. 10* (960) San Francisco Giants |
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06-26-19 | A's v. Cardinals -140 | 2-0 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. We lost with St. Louis last night as Jack Flaherty was cruising along until he allowed six runs in the fifth inning before getting yanked. The Cardinals have now lost two straight games and are now a half-game out of the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Cardinals are 8-3 in their last 11 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Oakland remains a game under .500 on the road but it too remains in the Wild Card race. The A's are 2-6 in their last eight games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game. Daniel Mengden is coming up for his second stint with the A's this season and he has bounced back and forth between Oakland and Triple-A over much of the past four years and he struggled his first time up this season, going 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA. Adam Wainwright counters for St. Louis and he has been far the dominant pitcher he once was but he has been effective, especially at home where he has a 2.68 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in seven starts. 9* (924) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-26-19 | Rangers v. Tigers -104 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Texas won its third straight game with a 5-3 victory last night and the Rangers are now tied with Boston and Cleveland for the second Wild Card spot in the American League nearly halfway through the season. They are still six games under .500 on the road where they are hitting just .225 against left-handed pitching. Detroit lost its fifth straight games last night and like New York, the Tigers are in good position for a rebound. They are struggling with the bats and the bullpen but the rotation has not been horrible and part of that is on display tonight. Matthew Boyd is coming off a pair of tough outings but those were on the road and he comes in with a 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP at home. Detroit is 12-3 in his last 15 home starts against American League teams with an on-base percentage of .330 or worse. He will be opposed by Mike Minor who is having a good season as well but the Rangers are just 4-4 in his eight road starts as lack of run support has been the issue. 10* (918) Detroit Tigers |
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06-26-19 | Mets +146 v. Phillies | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Mets are in a prime bounce back spot tonight after blowing a 5-2 lead last night to drop the first two games of this series and to fall to 3-6 on this current roadtrip. The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven games after losing the first two games of a series. Philadelphia is three games over .500 which is not great considering expectations coming into the season and it is now 5.5 behind the Braves in the National League East. The Phillies are 2-7 in their last nine games against teams with a losing record. Jason Vargas has quietly put together a solid season with a 3.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. He has allowed three runs or less in 10 straight starts and the Mets are 6-2 in his last eight starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Nick Pivetta has been inconsistent all season with a 5.54 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in nine starts, only two of which were quality outings. The Phillies are 0-9 in his last nine starts during game three of a series. 9* (905) New York Mets |
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06-26-19 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +131 | 2-8 | Win | 131 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Wednesday Afternoon Dominator. The Dodgers had a six-game winning streak snapped on Monday but bounced back with a 3-2 come-from-behind win last night. Los Angeles is still average on the road at 21-17 and are hefty favorites this afternoon. Arizona fell back to under .500 with the loss but it remains right in the Wild Card hunt, sitting just two games back. Tony Gonsolin will be making his Major League debut today. This year, in his first Triple-A experience, he has recorded a terrific 2.77 ERA/3.57 FIP with 10.74 K/9 against 4.5 BB/9 in 26 innings. Gonsolin has averaged only a little over three frames per start in eight appearances this year, in part because of an early season oblique injury so that means the poor Dodgers bullpen will be asked to carry a heavy workload against after tossing six innings last night. Taylor Clarke has been all over the place for Arizona but his credit, five of seven starts have come on the road and his best home start came against the Dodgers where he allowed two earned runs over five innings. 9* (902) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -119 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. Oakland is coming off a 6-4 homestand to improve to 24-19 at home but it is just 17-19 on the road and the bullpen is a big reason as it has a 5.57 ERA in those 36 games. St. Louis dropped its series finale against the Angels on Sunday and it is now 4-3 on this current homestand. The Cardinals are 24-16 at home this season and are a perfect 10-0 at home against teams averaging 1.5 or more home runs per game. Additionally, the Cardinals are 23-7 as favorites of -150 or less. Jack Flaherty gets the ball for St. Louis and while he has a 4.24 ERA, his 1.18 WHIP more than makes up for it and he is much better at home where he has a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in eight starts. Chris Bassitt counters for Oakland and he is having a decent season as well which is keeping this price at a good range. He does not go very deep into which is an issue because of the bullpen and going back, Oakland is 4-11 in his last 15 starts after allowing five runs or more in its previous game. 10* (978) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies -125 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Philadelphia is 2-11 over its last 13 games including losses in seven straight and has now fallen 6.5 games behind the Braves in the National League East. The Phillies are still a game over .500 and right in the Wild Card mix but the streak needs to end and this is an important series after getting swept by the worst team in the National League. The Phillies are 19-7 in their last 26 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of less than .400. The Mets are 3-4 on this current roadtrip which is actually above the norm as they are still 8-22 in their last 30 road games. Steven Matz gets the call for New York and he has been up and down this season, especially on the road. He has a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in eight starts on the highway with only two of those being quality outings. The Mets are 6-21 in his last 27 starts when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game. The Phillies counter with Zach Eflin who has tossed three straight quality starts and on the season, he has a 2.83 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 14 outings. This includes a 2.13 ERA and 0.99 in six home starts, five of which have been quality performances. The Phillies are 5-0 in his last five home starts against teams with a losing record. 10* (902) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-23-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS for our MLB Sunday Sweet Spot. Arizona has dropped the first two games of this series and has now lost six straight games including the first five of this homestand. The Giants had dropped three in a row prior to the weekend and they have yet to produce a road sweep this season. The Giants are 10-28 in their last 38 games during game 3 of a series while the Diamondbacks are 5-1 in their last six games during game 3 of a series. Merril Kelly posted three straight quality outings but got lit up for six runs in six innings against the Rockies in his last start but gets a much better matchup today. He dominated the Giants in one earlier head-to-head this season, shutting them out over 5.1 innings in a 7-0 home win in May. Shaun Anderson has been solid for the Giants but his worst start of the season came against Arizona where he allowed six runs over five innings. Here, we play against National League teams with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season, after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 144-93 (60.8 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (964) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -123 | 11-7 | Loss | -123 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. The Brewers have dropped their last four games to fall a game and a half behind the Cubs in the National League Central after losing the series opener yesterday with the offense scoring just one run. The Brewers are 37-18 in their last 55 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Cincinnati meanwhile has now won five straight games with the pitching making the difference by allowing an average of just 2.2 rpg. The Reds are still five games under .500 on the road as the offense is hitting just .223, the worst average in baseball. Sonny Gray is having a solid first season in Cincinnati but he has not been able to go deep into games and he has not been able to make it through six innings in each of his last three starts. Chase Anderson is having a very similar season of not being able to go deep but he has been solid at home and going back, the Brewers are 8-3 in his last 11 home starts against teams with a losing record. 9* (960) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-21-19 | Astros +142 v. Yankees | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. After a 10-6 loss last night, the Astros have now dropped five straight games but they still have a comfortable 7.5-game lead in the American League West over the Rangers. Nonetheless, the losing has to stop and Houston is in good position to end the skid tonight and at a great price. The Yankees meanwhile have won six straight games to take a 4.5-game lead in the American League East but they are overpriced here because of the pitching matchup hat is not even that significant. James Paxton is having a solid season but it is nothing over the top as he has a 3.93 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through 11 starts. The Astros are 37-14 in their last 51 road games against left-handed starters and their .278 average this season against lefties is sixth best in baseball. Brad Peacock is having a better season with a 3.67 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his 13 starts and the Astros are 9-2 in his last 11 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. 9* (965) Houston Astros |
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06-21-19 | Padres v. Pirates -112 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a play on the PITTSBURGH PIRATES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Following a home sweep of the Brewers, San Diego has now won four straight games to move back over .500 on the season and while it is well behind the Dodgers in the National League West, the Wild Card race is very alive. This being said, the Padres are -32 in scoring differential which is by far the worst of any team in playoff contention. Pittsburgh is having a lousy season as a seven-game losing streak to open its most recent roadtrip knocked it way down in the standings. The Pirates are coming off a win against Detroit after falling behind 7-3 so there is some positive momentum heading into this weekend series. Joe Musgrove has pitched better than his 4.87 indicates as he comes in with a 1.27 WHIP through 14 starts and he faces a Padres offense that is the eighth worst hitting team in baseball. Eric Lauer has been all over the place and he has been especially poor on the road with a 7.81 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in six starts. 10* (958) Pittsburgh Pirates |
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06-20-19 | Reds v. Brewers -126 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Reds are coming off a home sweep of Houston to open the week and extend their winning streak to four games. They are now 5.5 games behind the Cubs in the National League Central but are still four games under .500 overall which includes a 15-21 road record. The Reds are 5-11 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Brewers are coming off a 2-6 roadtrip that included a series sweep at the hand of the Padres to fall out of first place in the division. Milwaukee is 22-13 at home including four straight wins and going back, the Brewers are 39-17 in their last 56 home games against teams with a losing record. Jimmy Nelson is making his third start since missing a year and a half and while the results have not been promising, he is being brought back slowly and is in a prime at home. Cincinnati counters with Tanner Roark who had a good start in May but has been up and down since then. He has a 4.09 ERA over his last six starts and a 6.10 ERA in two starts against Milwaukee the last two years. Here, we play on teams batting .190 or worse over their last three games, with a bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.20 the last 10 games. This situation is 416-299 (58.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (910) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-19-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a play on the ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. Arizona returned home from a 10-game roadtrip which went very well with a 7-3 record but the Diamondbacks were unable to carry any momentum forward as they got hammered 8-1 last night in the series opener. While Colorado and Arizona are not going to take out the Dodgers in the National League West, both are right in the Wild Card race and Arizona has to get better at home where it is just 14-17 on the season. Five of those wins can be attributed to Zack Greinke as he continues to dominate at home despite Chase Field being a hitter-friendly park. He has a 2.48 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in six home starts where the Diamondbacks have won 35 of his last 51. Additionally, the Diamondbacks are 22-7 in his last 29 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Jon Gray has struggled with control and the long ball this season and he has especially struggled on the road of late, posting a 7.16 ERA in his last five starts on the highway. Here, we play against underdogs that are hitting .333 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 41-8 (83.7 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (960) Arizona Diamondbacks |
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06-19-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals -163 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ST. LOUIS CARDINALS as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Cardinals shut out the Marlins on Monday but got that favor returned to them last night as they got handcuffed by Jordan Yamamoto for a second straight time as they have not scored a run in his two starts against them over 14 innings. St. Louis is much less of a favorite tonight and it comes in 6-2 in its last eight games after scoring two runs or less in its previous game. Meanwhile the Marlins are 7-19 in their last 26 games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Daniel Ponce de Leon takes the hill and he has been fantastic in his short career as he has posted a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP over 13 games including six starts. This includes a 2.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in two starts this season. Trevor Richards counters for Miami and while he is having a good season, he is not getting the wins as he is just 3-7 while the Marlins are 4-10 in his 14 starts. Going back, they are just 2-9 in his last 11 road starts. Here, we play on favorites of -150 or more that are hitting .190 or worse over their last three games and starting a pitcher who gave up one or fewer earned runs in his last two outings. This situation is 49-7 (87.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 8* (958) St. Louis Cardinals |
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06-19-19 | Mets v. Braves -147 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show | |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Wednesday Triple Play. The Braves came up small for us last night but we will back them again tonight in a more favorable pitching matchup. Atlanta is 13-4 over its last 17 games and the Braves are 6-0 in their last six games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Despite the win last night, the Mets are still just 15-24 on the road and the pitching allowed fewer than four runs for the first time in eight games. Max Fried goes for Atlanta and while he has struggled of late with allowing home runs, the Mets are an average power team and he has pitched well against them in two career starts, allowing just two runs in 10.1 innings. The Braves are 7-3 in his last 10 starts when their opponent scores five runs or more in their previous game. Steven Matz is having a good season but the success has come at home where he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP compared to a 5.79 ERA and 1.53 WHIP on the road. Here, we play on National League favorites of -150 or more with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.20 to 4.70 on the season but with an ERA of 7.50 or more over his last three starts. This situation is 54-11 (83.1 percent) since 1997. 9* (956) Atlanta Braves |
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06-18-19 | Mets v. Braves +113 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES for our MLB Tuesday Sweet Spot. The Braves won the opener of this series last night to make it 13 wins in their last 16 games and they have stretched their lead over the Phillies to three games in the National League East. Despite the run, they come in as home underdogs with history from last season being the biggest reason. Last season, Jacob deGrom was dominant in winning the Cy Young thanks to a 1.70 ERA but he was the least profitable pitcher in the rotation going 14-18 (-10.35 units) and this year has been even worse. He is having a solid season with a 3.37 ERA but New York is just 4-10 in his 14 starts while going 0-6 in six starts against winning teams. Julio Teheran was a big name involved in trade rumors last season at the deadline and the Braves are thankful they never dealt him. After an average start where he posted a 5.35 ERA through his first seven starts, he has put up a 0.81 ERA over his last eight outings and has not allowed more than one run in any of those. Going back to last season, the Braves are 14-2 in his last 16 starts as an underdog of +150 or less including a perfect 6-0 at home. 10* (904) Atlanta Braves |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers +121 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 121 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on the TEXAS RANGERS for our MLB Monday Sweet Spot. Cleveland is coming off a 3-0 sweep in Detroit and heads to Texas sitting 10 games behind the Twins in the American League Central. The Indians are just one game over .500 on the road and they again come in as road favorites and of all teams in the American League with a winning record, they have the lowest scoring differential. Texas went 4-3 on its recent roadtrip and heads back home where it is 24-12 on the season which has kept the Rangers right in the Wild Card mix. The Rangers are 4-0 in their last four home games against teams with a winning road record. Cleveland gets a key piece back into the rotation as Mike Clevinger, who has been out since early April with a significant lat injury, will make his return to the mound on Monday. He started the season red hot before suffering the injury, tossing 12 shutout innings with 22 strikeouts before leaving his second start of the year because of the injury. Texas counters with Lance Lynn who got off to a poor start with a 5.75 ERA through his first seven outings but has posted seven straight quality starts, good for a 3.18 ERA. Here, we play against American League road teams hitting .265 or worse with a pitcher working on a layoff of more than seven days going up against a pitcher with an ERA between 4.20 and 4.70. this situation is 32-9 (78 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (966) Texas Rangers |
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06-16-19 | Cubs +157 v. Dodgers | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
The Cubs handed the Dodgers just their eighth home loss of the season yesterday as they closed as a +167 underdog and they come into tonight as an ever bigger dog. Chicago has been below average on the road but for a team that is tied atop the National League Central, this price is too good to pass up. The Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. Los Angeles is now 9.5 games in front of the Rockies and Diamondbacks in the National League West and it remain World Series favorites at 4-1. It has been a pretty lethargic run however as the Dodgers are just 4-5 over their last nine games with all five of those losses coming as significant favorites. Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a remarkable season with a 1.36 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through 13 starts and he has been unbeatable as home, going 6-0 with a 1.01 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in six starts. This is the reason he is priced so high but he faces the third best hitting team in the National League and the Cubs are 28-13 against National League starting pitchers whose WHIP is 1.15 or better. Jose Quintana had one bad start early in the season and he has allowed three runs or less in 11 of his last 12 starts including all five on the road. The Cubs are 13-6 in his last 19 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. 9* (913) Chicago Cubs |
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06-16-19 | Indians v. Tigers +157 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
The Indians have won the first two games of this series to move to three games over .500 on the season but they still trail the Twins by 11 games in the American League Central. Cleveland is right at .500 on the road yet it checks in once against as a heavy road favorite and as favorites this season, the Indians are -10.2 units with a lot of the forecasting based on past results and not what is happening this season. The Tigers are rebuilding and the record shows that but it is hard to beat this price with their best starting pitcher on the hill. Spencer Turnbull is in his first full season in the rotation and he has been outstanding with a 2.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through 14 starts. He has allowed three runs or less in 13 of those outings and going back, Cleveland is 3-19 against starting pitchers whose ERA is 2.90 or better. Trevor Bauer has been up and down all season and while he is coming off a quality start, he has not been able to string together too many as he has posted a 6.23 in his last four starts following a quality outing. Here, we play against American League road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 team with a OBP of .320 or worse going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.30 or better, with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start. This situation is 35-17 (67.3 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (920) Detroit Tigers |
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06-15-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -130 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Game of the Month. St. Louis rallied from a 5-4 deficit last night by scoring five runs in the eighth and ninth innings to take the first two games of this series against two solid starters. The Cardinals run into another one tonight and we are thinking the bats will not be as fortunate. They are now two games over .500 for the season and St. Louis has not been three games over .500 since it was 23-20 following a loss on May 15. Despite the decent wins, the Cardinals are 4-10 in their last 14 road games against teams with a winning home record. The Mets got hurt by the rain on Thursday and then by its own bullpen last night as they continue to fall further back in the National League East. They are 7.5 games behind the Braves with a lot of this due to poor play on the road. The Mets are 13-5 in their last 18 home games against teams with a losing road record. Noah Syndergaard had one of the best starts of his career last Sunday as he seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball against Colorado. It was just the second time in 100 starts that he has limited an opponent to one hit over six or more innings. The Mets are 6-2 in his last eight home starts against team with a winning record. Michael Wacha is also coming off a great start but he has not been nearly as consistent as it was his first quality start since April 17. The Cardinals are 3-10 in his last 13 starts during Game Three of a series. 10* (958) New York Mets |
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06-14-19 | Brewers -131 v. Giants | 3-5 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Milwaukee is coming off a two-game split against the Astros, winning the second game in 14 innings and having the day off yesterday is a huge bonus because of that. The Brewers are 10-5 over their last 15 road games and they remain a game up over the Cubs in the National League Central. The Brewers are 21-8 in their last 29 games following an off day. San Francisco took both games against San Diego after losing two of three against the Dodgers to open this homestand and it is still a dismal 13-20 at home. Going back, the Giants are 8-21 in their last 29 home games against teams with a winning road record. Zach Davies has quietly put together a solid start to the season as he has posted a 2.41 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 13 starts, allowing more than three runs only once. He has yet to lose and his road numbers are even better with a 1.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in seven starts. Drew Pomeranz is coming off one of his better efforts on the season but he still has a 7.16 ERA and 1.75 WHIP in 11 outings. He has gone six straight games without a quality start and now faces a Brewers team that has hit the third most home runs in baseball. Milwaukee is 18-4 this season against National League teams allowing 5.0 or more rog. 9* (913) Milwaukee Brewers |
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06-14-19 | Phillies +127 v. Braves | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. Atlanta has won seven straight games to take over first place in the National League East by a game and a half over the Phillies. The offense has been crushing it by averaging 6.9 rpg during this winning streak but the pitching has been fortunate for this run support, especially of late as Atlanta is allowing 6.0 rpg over the last five games. The Phillies are coming off an average 3-3 homestand and they hit the road where they are a game under .500 on the season and that is playing into this value number. The Phillies are 20-8 in their last 28 games following an off day. Nick Pivetta takes the hill for Philadelphia and he has been excellent since getting back into the rotation with a 1.80 ERA and 0.70 WHIP over his last three starts. He has made just one road start this season but it was a great one as he limited the Dodgers to just three hits and no runs over six innings. The Phillies are 11-4 in his last 15 starts after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Max Fried has been solid overall but has put up a couple poor outings of late and has a 6.89 ERA and 1.91 WHIP over his last three starts. The Braves are 2-5 in his last seven series opening starts. 10* (907) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-14-19 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -168 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show | |
This is a play on the WASHINGTON NATIONALS as part of our MLB Friday Triple Play. This number is right at our max and the backing of it is part of a contrarian scenario that will be broken. Washington got shutout last night to open this series behind a brilliant effort from Zack Greinke who allowed just two hits over 7.1 innings which was its second straight loss. The Nationals are six games under .500 for the season but just one game under .500 at home where they have won five of their last seven. Arizona meanwhile has won seven of its last eight games to remain in the hunt in the playoff scenario in the National League. The Diamondbacks have struggled in similar spots in the past as they are 41-139 against the money line as underdogs of +175 to +250. Max Scherzer takes the hill for Washington and he is the contrarian play here as despite a 2.89 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in seven home starts, the Nationals are 0-7 in those games. He has tossed nine straight quality starts and the Diamondbacks are 2-5 in their last seven games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Robbie Ray has been good but not great with a 1.43 road WHIP and in five career starts against Washington, he is 0-4 with a 6.26 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. 8* (902) Washington Nationals |
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06-13-19 | Cardinals v. Mets -123 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -123 | 10 h 39 m | Show |
This is a play on the NEW YORK METS for our MLB Thursday Sweet Spot. The Cardinals are 2-4 to open this roadtrip and that includes a 9-0 loss in Miami last night where they managed only three hits. St. Louis is 2-9 this season after a game where it had four or fewer hits. With the win in the second game of the Tuesday doubleheader, the Mets moved within one game of .500 for the seventh time since May 16, when they fell two games under .500 for the first time this season. New York has gotten to .500 just once in their previous six tries. Despite the Braves being on a six-game winning stream, New York is just 5.5 games out of first place in the National League East. Jacob deGrom has been not nearly as close to his dominating season from a year ago when he broke the consecutive quality starts streak on his way to the Cy Young but he is still having a great season. He has had a couple duds along the way but eight of his 13 starts have been quality outings and while this price is not considered a steal, it is loaded with value. DeGrom saw his winless streak reach five starts on Friday, when he took the loss despite allowing just two runs and striking out 10. He is 0-2 with a 3.77 ERA since his most recent win May 11 and he has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past four starts. In three career home starts against St. Louis, he is 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA over 20.1 innings. Jack Flaherty is having a decent season, at home. His ERA at Busch Stadium is 2.25 to go along with a 0.85 WHIP in seven starts but he has a 6.67 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in six road outings. 10* (956) New York Mets |
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06-12-19 | Padres -126 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a play on the SAN DIEGO PADRES for our MLB Game of the Week. The Padres lost the opener of this two-game set to make it three straight losses and they are in good shape for a bounce back tonight. They are still above .500 on the road which is good considering four of their last five road series have come against the Yankees, Dodgers, Rockies and Braves. The Giants snapped a two-game slide with the win and the six runs scored were just one game loess than their previous five games combined. San Francisco is hitting .222 on the season which is the lowest average in the National League. The Giants are 7-21 in their last 28 home games against teams with a winning road record. He was roughed up for seven runs and seven hits in four innings during his loss in San Francisco but that was back in April, which came 12 days after he blanked the Giants on three hits over 5.1 innings in his season debut for the Padres at home. He has been hurt by the long ball of late, allowing five home runs in his last four starts but the Giants are not a big power hitting team as they have hit the third fewest home runs in all of baseball. The Padres are 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a losing record. Shaun Anderson has been a solid addition to the rotation as he has made five starts and has allowed three runs or less in four of those including a pair of quality outings in his last two trips to the hill. The long ball has hurt him also as he has allowed four home runs in his last three starts and the Padres are an above average power team. Here, we play against National League underdogs with a poor OBP of .310 going up against a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.25 or better, with a good bullpen that converts on 75 percent or better of their save opportunities. This situation is 189-79 (70.5 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (909) San Diego Padres |
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06-11-19 | Tigers +133 v. Royals | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
This is a play on the DETROIT TIGERS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Tigers hit the road after losing four of their last five games of their recent homestand to fall to 11-21 at home. They have been better on the road and while they are far from dominant, they are significant underdogs for no apparent reason. Detroit has won five of the six meetings so far this season. Kansas City is on a horrible run where it is 1-8 over its last nine games and in those eight losses, it has averaged a mere 1.9 rpg. The Royals have struggled at home with a 12-22 record including losses in five of their last six games. Spencer Turnbull gets the call for the Tigers and while not many people have even heard of him, he is having a solid season with a 3.01 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 13 starts and those numbers drop to a 2.86 ERA and 1.5 WHIP in six road starts. The Royals are 18-40 in their last 58 games against right-handed starters. Jakob Junis allowed five runs in 4.2 innings in his last start and he has been overly inconsistent with a 5.62 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 13 starts. Here, we play on American League teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less home runs per start going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.50 to 1.60 on the season. This situation is 35-14 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (969) Detroit Tigers |
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06-11-19 | Brewers v. Astros -115 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
This is a play on the HOUSTON ASTROS as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. The Brewers swept the Pirates over the weekend to make it four straight wins to conclude a 4-2 homestand and they hit the road sitting in first place in the National League Central by a half-game over the Cubs. The Milwaukee offense is hitting just .241, tied for fifth worst in the National League. The Astros won their last series at home against the Orioles and they have not lost a series since losing three of four in Minnesota at the start of May. They own the best home record in the American League at 24-9 and are laying an incredibly short price here for what they have accomplished at home. The Astros are 13-3 in their last 16 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. Brad Peacock gets overlooked by Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole but he is having a great season especially at home with a 2.38 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Houston is 15-3 in his last 18 starts when the money line is -100 to -150. Freddy Peralta is coming off a rare quality start after posting a 10.43 ERA in his previous four starts. Here, we play against road teams hitting .325 or better over their last three games going up against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is less than 2.50 over his last five starts. This situation is 45-12 (78.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (976) Houston Astros |
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06-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -131 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a play on the PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES as part of our MLB Tuesday Triple Play. Arizona won its fifth straight game last night as the offense continues to pound the ball as they are averaging 8.8 rpg over their last four games but run into a tough situation tonight. The Diamondbacks were able to sweep Toronto over the weekend which is not saying much and prior to that, they were 4-10 in their last 14 road games. The Phillies have lost two straight games and are now tied with the Braves in the National League East at 37-29. Philadelphia is 11-1 in its last 12 games after scoring and allowing eight runs or more in a game. Jake Arietta is coming off a couple rough starts where he allowed five runs each against the Dodgers and Padres but the schedule has been against him as those were the third and fourth consecutive starts on the road. This is his first home start since May 15th. Arizona counters with Jon Duplantier who is making just his third start of the season and in his career and both of those were at home. The Phillies fall into a solid contrarian situation where we play against National League road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 with a team slugging percentage of .440 or better going up against an opponent starting a pitcher who walked five or more hitters last outing. This situation is 88-43 (67.2 percent) since 1997. 10* (952) Philadelphia Phillies |
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06-10-19 | Cubs v. Rockies -125 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show | |
This is a play on the COLORADO ROCKIES as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. Colorado is coming off a 2-4 roadtrip including losses in the last two games against the Mets to fall to 15-19 on the road. The Rockies head home where they have been much better with an 18-12 record on the season and even that is a bit skewed as after a rough start at Coors Field, the Rockies are 13-3 in their last 16 home games including wins in their last eight games here. The Cubs are coming off a home sweep of the Cardinals to conclude a 6-1 homestand and they too are much better at home than on the road. Chicago has the second best home record in the Nationals League but they are just 13-16 on the highway and the Cubs are 1-6 in their last 7 road games against teams with a winning home record. Colorado sends Yu Darvish to the hill and he has been all over the place with a 4.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP in 13 starts. He has faced Colorado four times and the results are not good with an 8.20 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. German Marquez counters for Colorado and he is out for immediate revenge after allowing eight runs last week in Chicago. The Rockies are 6-0 in his last six home starts. Here, we play against National League teams with a starting pitcher who gives up 2.75 or more BB per start with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season. This situation is 68-38 (64.2 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (908) Colorado Rockies |
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06-10-19 | Nationals v. White Sox +145 | 12-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
This is a play on the CHICAGO WHITE SOX as part of our MLB Monday Triple Play. This line came out late due to the late decision on the starting pitcher for the White Sox. We won with Washington yesterday in the series finale against the Padres but it has an ace on the hill and that is not the case tonight. The Nationals, despite two straight wins, are only 15-20 on the road and nine of those won have come with either Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg making the start. The Nationals are 0-5 in their last five Interleague road games against teams with a losing record. The White Sox won their final two games in Kansas City over the weekend and head home just two games under .500 and are three games over. .500 at home. Chicago has won six of its last seven home games. Anibal Sanchez has been on a solid run by allowing just one run over his last three starts over 12.2 innings. He has struggled on the road though with a 4.35 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in six starts with Washington winning just one of those. The White Sox are 6-1 in their last seven home games against right-handed starters. Odrisamer Despaigne is lined up to start on Monday, as the he is set to get his first taste of Major League action in the 2019 season. Despaigne joined the White Sox in mid-May on a minor league contract, and over 59.1 combined innings in the Minors, Despaigne has produced some pretty solid numbers with a 3.34 ERA, 8.5 K/9, and 2.8 K/BB rate. 9* (916) Chicago White Sox |