Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-18-22 | Green Bay v. Oregon State -16 | 56-65 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Beavers aren't bad, but they'll look like a very good team versus Green Bay. They're a solid offensive club who didn't quit on themselves after a poor first-half shooting versus Seattle, pouring in 48 second-half points. They'll carry momentum from that shooting performance into this matchup, putting the Phoenix away early enough to coast to a comfortable victory. The Beavers' defense (189th in defensive efficiency) should also have no problems containing Green Bay (354th in offensive efficiency). The Phoenix has not shown up in these non-conference matchups, as Georgetown and Stanford blew them out. Against in-state Wisconsin, they couldn't take advantage of an ice-cold Badgers squad (30.2 FG%), as the Phoenix scored just 15 first-half points and 45 total points. |
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12-18-22 | Senators v. Wild -195 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Senators have won four games in a row and can easily win the upcoming game and provide great odds in the process as road Underdogs. The problem is that they face a Wild team that looks like one of the best in the Western Conference and looks to control this game from the opening puck drop. The Wild, who average 3.10 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes. The Wild, who allow only 2.87 goals per game, should also limit the Senators' offense with Jared Spurgeon, Jacob Middleton, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Filip Gustavsson to make plenty of easy saves. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars +4 | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Jaguars’ QB Trevor Lawrence, has over the course of his last three games sport a 111.7 QB Rating with 0 INTs. Meanwhile, the not-so-big news in the Dallas receiver room is that WR TY Hilton will be joining the Cowboys, not Odell Beckham, Jr. The feeling here is OBJ may still be in play for America’s Team, but not until he’s able to take the field. Yes, the Boys are confident, riding an 8-game ITS (In The Stats) win skein entering today’s game. But we can’t ignore that playing against any sub .800 NFL non-division road favorite coming off three straight home games from Game 11 out is 12-1-1 since 1980. |
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12-18-22 | Lions +2 v. Jets | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 3 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This is not a matchup that NFL fans would have circled on their calendars heading into the season, but it is going to be an electric atmosphere on Sunday. I would rather fade the Jets than the Lions right now, especially with some of the injury issues that New York is dealing with, most notably to White, who is out for this game. Detroit’s offense has been among the best in the NFL all year, and the Lions have gotten even better of late. They have covered the spread in six straight games and are the pick to cover the number on Sunday. |
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12-17-22 | Islanders v. Golden Knights -160 | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Knights are topping the Pacific Division and have the best record in the Western Conference. However, they’ve only won one of their previous five games at T-Mobile Arena, and the fans will demand a victory when the Islanders come to town. Vegas is arguably a better offensive team than the Islanders, who rank 22nd in the league in 5-on-5 high-danger scoring chances. The Golden Knights need to remain focused and disciplined, as they commit the fewest penalty minutes per game. The Islanders have to deal with fatigue on the second day of a back-to-back, so I’m going with Vegas to win even though Jack Eichel (G13, A16) is on injured reserve. |
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12-17-22 | Predators v. Avalanche -160 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Predators are looking to snap out of their losing streak but the Avalanche look to bounce back from a rough loss and dominate this game on their home ice. The Avalanche, who average 3.04 goals per game, should pile on the goals with Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Compher, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes while Cale Makar and Devon Toews generate shots on the net from the blue line. Speaking of Makar and Toews, they should lead an Avalanche defense that is only allowing 2.82 goals per game and limit the Predators offense, which is scoring only 2.46 goals per game by creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Alexandar Georgiev to make plenty of big saves. The Avalanche should win the game and cover the spread in a dominant win on their home ice. |
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12-17-22 | Sabres -168 v. Coyotes | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Coyotes are looking to win on their home ice but I like the Sabres to build off two strong wins and dominate this game on the road. The Sabres, who average 3.93 goals per game, should find the back of the net at will with Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with quick passes near the net. The Sabres should also limit a Coyotes offense that averages only 2.74 goals per game with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the neutral zone and defensive zone while goaltender Craig Anderson steps up and blanks the shots on the net. The Sabres should win the game with a strong performance on the road to win their third game in a row. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills -7 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Buffalo pulled a win-no cover against the Jets last week, (Miami 0-6 ATS off SUATS loss versus a win-no-cover foe) and now own a one-game lead over the Fish. If you got to see that game, you know the weather in Buffalo was miserable – and it’s going to get worse tonight. All of which spells trouble for the Floridians. Hey, it’s bad enough that they have to play a third straight road game, where they are 1-6 SUATS in this role of late, but it’s borderline criminal to send them up into the arctic-cold of a city that may as well be in Canada. Buffalo QB Josh Allen will take time out from his busy commercial shoots to take care of a little business, namely revenge from a loss to Miami back in September. With the Bills now 5-1 ATS playing at home off a home game, look for the Dolphins to go down again. |
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12-17-22 | Blazers v. Rockets +4 | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Surprising and sudden defensive prowess had fueled the Houston Rockets through a five-game homecourt winning streak, highlighted by consecutive victories over the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns earlier in the week. Against the Miami Heat on Thursday, the Rockets proved unable to maintain that defensive momentum, falling 111-108 in the third game of a seven-game homestand that continues on Saturday against the Portland Trail Blazers. Central to the Rockets' struggles against the Heat was on-ball defense, namely against Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler. Herro poured in a career-high 41 points while sinking 10 3-pointers, also a career best. He torched several defenders in his wake. Butler finished with 20 points and 10 rebounds, and he added seven assists by routinely finding teammates in the corners after beating his defender off the dribble. Houston will face a similar challenge against Portland and its guard tandem of Damian Lillard -- who will enter the game 46 points shy of surpassing Hall of Fame guard Clyde Drexler atop the franchise career scoring list -- and Anfernee Simons. However, what should embolden Houston is the manner in which it competed against Miami down the stretch despite the sharpshooting of Herro and the all-around brilliance displayed by Butler, who also chipped in four steals. Finally, the Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. |
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12-17-22 | Grizzlies v. Thunder +9 | 109-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. While the Thunder are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss. |
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12-17-22 | BYU +4.5 v. SMU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units History is not riding with the Ponies as they are 0-5 ATS as a front-runner plus 0-3 SU all-time in this series. SMU is also 0-4 ATS versus foes off an ATS win, and 0-6 UNDER on a neutral fi eld. It’s Mustangs’ boss Rhett Lashlee’s first bowl game as a head coach, and first timers are 16-32 ATS vs. teams coming off a win. BYU is 5-0 ATS as a dog off three wins and 5-1 ATS versus a .500 or better AAC team not coming off consecutive wins, plus Cougars head coach Kalani Sitake is a stern 16-7 ATS when a dog of 12 points or less. He will be without star RB Lopini Kotoa but is holding out hope his number one QB Jaren Hall can play on a bum ankle. Finally, BYU is 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS vs. foes with an identical record, including 5-0 when the Cougars are coming off a SUATS win. |
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12-17-22 | Rangers -167 v. Flyers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Even though the Flyers snapped a four-game slide on Thursday, beating the New Jersey Devils 2-1, it is quite difficult to look beyond the fact that Philadelphia was still outshot by a double (49-24), had a tremendous performance by its goalie Carter Hart and won largely because of a cross-ice pass go-wrong by New Jersey’s defenceman Damon Severson. Three wins in 19 games is a terrible statistic for the Flyers, who, based on just current form, are no match for the Rangers. New York is riding a five-game winning run, having triumphed by more than one snipe in three of those matchups, and is an excellent 5-0-1 in its most recent six meetings with Philadelphia, having beaten the Flyers by a margin of at least two tallies in three of those fixtures. |
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12-17-22 | Nebraska v. Kansas State -170 | 56-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units First-year coach Jerome Tang only has two players back from last year’s team. However, he snagged former Florida star Keyontae Johnson in the offseason, and that move has paid major dividends thus far. Johnson leads Kansas State with 17.3 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. Senior guard Markquis Nowell is the only other player in double figures, averaging 14.1 points and 8.2 assists per game. Junior forward Nae’Qwan Tomlin has been a key contributor as well, averaging 9.9 points and 5.7 boards. Kansas State has decent offensive numbers, with its weakness being a high turnover rate. The Wildcats are facing a Nebraska defense that is No. 67 in adjusted efficiency. |
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12-17-22 | UCLA -125 v. Kentucky | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units UCLA has won six straight games and has played the 76th toughest schedule in the country. This is the 4th Top-25 team they've played this year. They have the 3rd most efficient offense in the country and shoot the ball over 50% per game. Kentucky has played the 165th most challenging schedule thus far and have been off for the last week. UCLA also has the 18th most efficient defense and, more importantly, force nearly 18 turnovers per game. The Bruins' ability to cause turnovers can keep the game from turning into a game played in the paint, which would shift the advantage to the Wildcats. Take the Bruins with their experienced backcourt and active defense in the passing lanes. |
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12-17-22 | Heat v. Spurs +7.5 | 111-101 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Spurs have played six games in Mexico, most recently a 121-119 overtime win over Phoenix as part of the NBA Mexico City Games 2019. It will mark Miami's second game ever in Mexico, with the other a 101-89 loss against the Brooklyn Nets in December 2017. San Antonio got in a vigorous workout on Friday to acclimate to the higher elevation of Mexico's capital city. San Antonio defeated the Heat 115-111 in Miami on Dec. 10 in the first matchup of the year between the teams. Consider that the Heat are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win. |
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12-17-22 | Florida +9 v. Oregon State | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 3 Units If UF finds the red zone, they’ll find the nation’s best red zone defense but that’s about the best number for Beavers fans because the gambling numbers favor the orange and blue. OSU West is 0-4 SU vs SEC foes, 1-4 SUATS in bowls against a team not coming off a double-digit loss. The Pac-12 is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS vs. the SEC… and it gets a little worse for Oregon State. UF is 5-1 ATS versus Pac-12 teams, all as the underdog, and 7-2 ATS as a bowler not favored by 7 or more points. First year head coaches are 10-4 ATS as a double-digit dog and UF coach Billy Napier is 17-6 ATS as a puppy backed up by a powerful 8-0 ATS run in the last eight. The Pac-12 also limps in with a 15-34-1 ATS record as a bowl favorite. This is a classic conflict of favorable numbers for UF, but the other team is favored and facing a QB that’s never played a meaningful down since his senior year at Chaparral High in Scottsdale, AZ. And our head coach is 17-5 ATS as a dog. |
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12-17-22 | Colts +4 v. Vikings | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Colts have dropped three straight, while failing to reach the 20-point mark in scoring. Still, the blowout loss at Dallas was a 4th-quarter fluke (Cowboys outscored Indy, 33-0) and defeats against Pittsburgh and Philadelphia came down to the final minutes. The Colts are on an 11-0 ATS run when playing off a double-digit loss, plus they’ve cashed SEVEN straight tickets versus NFC North opponents. The Colts also counter with the league’s 7th ranked stop unit, 89 YPG superior to that of Minnesota. |
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12-17-22 | Alabama v. Gonzaga | 90-100 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The betting trends, though, do not look favorably on Gonzaga's chances. The Bulldogs are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 1-12-3 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight-up win. They're even performing poorly ATS in neutral site games (1-9-1 ATS in their last 11). I'll bet the more balanced squad playing closer to home to cover the spread. |
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12-16-22 | Nuggets v. Lakers +2 | 108-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Denver beat LA 110-99 as a 5-point home fave in their first meeting of the season on October 26, and the Lakers responded with a 121-110 home victory four days later, playing as 2.5-point home dogs. It was the Lakers’ first win in 2022-23. They held Denver to 42.7% shooting from the field while making 13 of their 30 attempts from beyond the arc. The Lakers nearly defeated the Celtics last Tuesday, and I’m expecting them to grab this one over the Nuggets, whose defense will struggle to cope with both LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Of course, the Lakers will have to bring their best defense and slow down Nikola Jokic as much as possible. Los Angeles is defending the 3-point line well, but Davis has to contain Jokic in the paint. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Western Conference, while the Nuggets have covered the spread just once in their previous six games overall. |
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12-16-22 | Weber State v. Cal Poly -5 | 74-45 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Besides Dillon Jones, the Wildcats lack a decent scoring option. Cal Poly is arguably a better defensive team than Weber State, and the Mustangs own three guys who average points in double digits, so I’m backing the hosts to come out on top and cover a 5.5-point spread. The only thing I’m worried about is the fact that Cal Poly’s defense ranks 309th in the nation in free throw rate, while Weber State’s offense ranks 48th in free throw rate. Anyway, the Wildcats have been one of the worst defensive units in the nation thus far (358th in effective field goal percentage, 58.8%). Weber State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games overall and 1-7 ATS in its previous eight showings on the road. On the other side, Cal Poly has covered in five straight contests and seven of its last eight outings on the home court. |
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12-16-22 | Creighton v. Marquette -155 | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Friday's matchup is a tale of two teams going in opposite directions right now, with momentum dictating how this one will go. For Creighton, they are trying to re-find their identity, which is not going to be easy to do on the road, against a group that already has some impressive wins in their own right this season. Adding to that, Creighton continues to be without one of the best centers in the country, and until he can be counted on to play consistent minutes, this team can't be counted upon to win games. The Golden Eagles have been strong at home this season behind one of the most efficient offenses in the Big East, with no signs of that changing. Additionally, according to covers.com, Marquette is 7-2 ATS in their last nine Friday games. |
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12-16-22 | Knicks v. Bulls -135 | 114-91 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Knicks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. While the Knicks are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. |
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12-16-22 | Magic +13 v. Celtics | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Orlando has had a season full of streaks, as its current run of four wins in a row follows a nine-game skid that spanned more than two weeks. The Magic will begin a four-game trip after Wednesday's 135-124 win over Atlanta, which extended the team's longest win streak since early in the 2020-21 season. "These guys are just continuing to learn to trust each other," Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley said. "The rhythm that they're finding, the continuity, being willing to make the open pass." Against the Hawks, Franz Wagner scored 24 points to lead an offense that had a 50-point first quarter, the highest-scoring period in Magic history. Bol Bol had 21 points, Paolo Banchero added 20 points and six rebounds, and Markelle Fultz finished with 16 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Consider that the Magic are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. |
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12-16-22 | Nets v. Raptors +1.5 | 119-116 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors have dropped three in a row for the first time this season after losing 124-123 to the visiting Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. Brooklyn has won all three games with Toronto this season. The Raptors continued to have problems in shooting 3-pointers on Wednesday, going 6 for 21 (28.6 percent). However, Toronto is 10-4 at home. Brooklyn is 7-7 on the road. |
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12-16-22 | Hawks v. Hornets -135 | 125-106 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Neither team is in good form coming into this game, but several injury situations are creating value on Charlotte at home. The Hawks lost Capela to an injury for the next week of action, which is going to make it tough for them to close out possessions with rebounds. They are facing a Charlotte team that got Ball back from an injury on Wednesday, and Gordon Hayward has been upgraded to questionable for Friday’s game. Atlanta is not a strong defensive team, which makes this a solid matchup for Charlotte’s high-scoring approach. The Hawks have only covered the spread once in their last six games and have gone 1-7 in their last eight road games, so I like Charlotte on Friday. |
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12-16-22 | Florida Gulf Coast v. St Bonaventure -155 | 71-58 | Loss | -155 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This one is going to be a clash of teams that are very solid on the defensive end of the floor while putting up mediocre numbers on the offensive end. Florida Gulf Coast gets a decent chunk of their offensive production from beyond the arc but they may find it to be tough sledding here against the Bonnies. St. Bonaventure gives up the seventh-fewest three-pointers per game (4.8) in the nation while they are fourth in three-point field goal percentage defense (24.5%) on the year. The Eagles are just 2-3 on the road this season while the Bonnies are a perfect 5-0 within the confines of the Reilly Center. With St. Bonaventure clamping down from the outside and with the home crowd in support, you have to give the edge to the hosts in this contest. |
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12-16-22 | Troy +2.5 v. UTSA | 18-12 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trojans held three teams to season low yardage this year. Troy’s defensive 11 held the seven bowl teams they faced to 17 PPG/326 YPG. They’re 5-0 ATS when receiving points and after all isn’t receiving what the holiday season is all about? UTSA struggles defensively against bowlers, 29 PPG/409 YPG and has yet to win a bowl game, going 0-3 and that includes not covering once. Troy’s first year head coach Jon Sumrall knows his Trojans have won their last four bowl games. |
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12-16-22 | Miami-OH v. UAB -10.5 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Trent Dilfer is perhaps the most maligned winning QB in Super Bowl history fairly or unfairly, but after a strong stint coaching HS ball in Tennessee, he’s the coach in waiting for UAB. Bryant Vincent has this bowl assignment, and his Blazers have gone 3-0 ATS in bowls since 2018. Yes, the RedHawks are 4-0 ATS in bowls since 2011, but this year against bowl teams M-OH has had its problems going 0-5 SU, 1-4 SUATS and ITS (In The Stats). Chuck Martin’s Miamians are also a scary 3-8 In the Stats this season and against fellow bowlers are an average -131. Yecch. Toss in the MAC’s inability to conquer C-USA in the bowls, going 5-18 SU and 7-15-1 ATS, and it’s hard to get excited about Miami winning. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a hearty 15-7-1 ATS as double-digit chalk, including 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. UAB has also held four foes to season-low yardage, and Martin seems to be conservative in bowl games for some odd reason. Blazers’ players who plan on coming back next season will be very invested in putting on a good show for the incoming Dilfer, and motivation is perhaps the biggest non-numerical reason to pick with or against a team during bowl season. |
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12-15-22 | Suns v. Clippers -115 | 111-95 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Keep tracking the Suns’ injury crisis. If Devin Booker remains on the shelf and both Deandre Ayton and Cameron Payne don’t suit up, take the Clippers to cover. On the flip side, Kawhi Leonard wasn’t on the injury report Wednesday, so he could easily get a day off on the back end of a back-to-back set. The Suns are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five outings, while the Clippers have covered the spread in three straight contests. LA has won five of its previous seven home games, and the Clippers will improve their record if the Suns cannot count on some of their best players. |
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12-15-22 | Seattle University -125 v. Oregon State | 58-73 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Redhawks have won seven of their last eight games and three of their last four road games. They are playing well offensively, even on the road where they are scoring more than 77 points per game. They rebound the ball well and they were very aggressive on the offensive glass in their last three games, grabbing more than 13 offensive boards per game, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job limiting turnovers and they’re giving the ball away less than 12 times per game, so don’t expect the Beavers to get a lot of easy scoring opportunities. Even though the Beavers play well defensively, they’ve struggled against good offensive teams and will have a hard time slowing down the Redhawks. The Beavers have lost six of their last 10 games. They aren’t very good offensively, even at home where they are scoring less than 67 points per game. They don’t rebound the ball as well as the Redhawks and won’t get a lot of extra scoring opportunities against them. They’ve also been careless with the ball, especially at home where they are turning it over 16 times per game, which will be a problem against the Redhawks, who averaged more than six steals per game in their last three games. Even though the Redhawks are giving up more than 73 points per game on the road, they won’t be tested by the Beavers, so go with Seattle to cover the spread. |
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12-15-22 | Pelicans v. Jazz +1.5 | 129-132 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units For years, a stifling defense was one of the Utah Jazz's calling cards, which made sense considering they had a three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year patrolling the paint. If you ask Jazz coach Will Hardy, Utah's recent performance against Zion Williamson and the red-hot New Orleans Pelicans could be considered its best defensive performance since the franchise traded defensive powerhouse Rudy Gobert to Minnesota this past offseason. Whether the Jazz defense can stymie the Pelicans again will be an intriguing aspect of the teams' turnaround rematch today in Salt Lake City. In their 121-100 blowout win over the Pelicans on Tuesday, the Jazz held New Orleans -- previously the league's third-ranked scoring offense -- to its second-lowest scoring total of the season. The visitors, who saw their seven-game winning streak get snapped, only shot 39.8 percent overall and made only 4 of 27 3-point tries. Consider that the Jazz are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. |
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12-15-22 | Sabres v. Avalanche -175 | 4-2 | Loss | -175 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Sabres boast the highest-scoring offense in the league, but their defense has been pretty much awful thus far. On the other side, the Avs haven’t impressed offensive-wise, and MacKinnon’s absence is a massive blow for the reigning champs, but their defense is doing a good job. Hereof, I’m expecting to see a tight battle between Buffalo and Colorado. The Avs would be my pick only because of their blue line. A couple of weeks ago, the Avalanche outshot the Sabres 33-28 in a 6-4 victory. MacKinnon scored two goals and had three assists. Colorado is undefeated in eight straight meetings with the Sabres, who have dropped 13 of their previous 19 games overall. |
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12-15-22 | Blues v. Oilers -155 | 4-3 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Oilers are undoubtedly a much better offensive team than the Blues. Both Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are coming off strong performances, and I’m expecting more of the same when the Oilers square off against the Blues. Edmonton will be fired up to get revenge for a shutout home loss against St. Louis, while Stuart Skinner will aim for his second straight victory over the Blues. Skinner has gone 5-2-0 over his previous seven starts. The Oilers have scored 20 goals in their last four games and are 5-1 in their previous six showings on the home ice. The Blues, on the other side, are 2-4 in their last six outings on the road. |
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12-15-22 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | 21-13 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Seattle is 4-0 ATS at home off a home game, as well 8-2-2 ATS in Thursday pressure cookers. Frisco has failed to cover in three straight Thursday appearances, and the Niners are a lousy 2-7 ATS as favorites versus a foe off a SU favorite loss. Look, we don’t expect Brock Purdy to match last week’s eye-popping performance against a desperate Seattle ‘D’, and 49ers all-world star Deebo Samuel is out with a sprained ankle and MCL, though he is expected back before the playoffs. No Deebo and a 2-game cushion for San Francisco in the division race means the hungry, hungry Seahawks find a way to win tonight. |
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12-15-22 | Heat v. Rockets +4 | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Houston Rockets will need many more defensive performances similar to their two most recent efforts in order to climb from the bottom five in the NBA in defensive rating, but the results produced against the Milwaukee Bucks and Phoenix Suns are nonetheless noteworthy. Houston extended its homecourt winning streak to five games with its 111-97 victory over the Suns on Tuesday, marking the second time this season the Rockets have held consecutive opponents below 100 points following their 97-92 home triumph over the Bucks on Sunday. The Rockets will look to extend their homecourt winning streak, and their stretch of tenacious defensive efforts. Consider that Heat are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up win. |
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12-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Middle Tennessee -5.5 | 82-73 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Mocs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. While the Blue Raiders are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 Thursday games, and 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win. Additionally, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. |
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12-14-22 | Canucks v. Flames -171 | 4-3 | Loss | -171 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Flames have lost their last three games, making it easy to think that the Canucks will pull off the upset and provide great odds in the process. However, with the Flames returning to their home ice, they look to step up and control this game from the opening puck drop. The Flames look to rebound after scoring only six goals in their last three games and pile on the goals with Nazem Kadri, Tyler Toffoli, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Flames also look to limit a Canucks offense that was shut out in their last game with Nikita Zadorov, MacKenzie Weegar, and the rest of the defensive unit stepping up and creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Jacob Markstrom to make plenty of big saves. The Flames should win the game with a much-needed bounce-back performance on their home ice. |
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12-14-22 | Charleston Southern v. Tennessee State -5.5 | 91-87 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Consider that the Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday Games, 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games following an ATS loss, and 0-3-1 in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss. While the Tigers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. |
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12-14-22 | Knicks +4.5 v. Bulls | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Knicks come into this matchup playing their best basketball of the season. The Bulls have had trouble at two spots this season, the power forward and point guard. Those happen to be the Knicks two strongest spots with Randle and Brunson the team's two top scorers. The Knicks should dominate the glass in this matchup with the 3rd ranked rebounding team matched up against the Bulls 24th ranked rebounding unit. The Knicks are also 7-6 on the road and 8-5 ATS away from Madison Square Garden. The Knicks are also 6-3-1 ATS in their last ten games. Look for NY to make it five straight wins in this matchup. |
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12-14-22 | Red Wings v. Wild -225 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The improvement the Red Wings have shown this season is undeniable. Still, the team has currently found itself in a bit of a slide, having registered just two victories in its past eight matchups, being on the verge of matching its season-worst run of four consecutive defeats. Playing on the second night of a back-to-back set, with the team having already dropped 40 of its last 59 no-rest decisions, does not help, nor does the loss of top-scorer Dylan Larkin to injury. Minnesota, meanwhile, is enjoying its hockey, with eight triumphs in its previous 11 games serving as a great indication of quality. Besides, the Wild have already beaten the Red Wings in five of their most recent six overall meetings, winning by more than two strikes in three of those fixtures. |
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12-14-22 | Pistons v. Hornets -162 | 141-134 | Loss | -162 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Livers (shoulder) suffered an injury on December 1 against the Mavericks and is expected to miss some time according to coach Dwane Casey. Cunningham (shin) hasn’t played since November 9 and his return date is up in the air as he could require surgery to deal with the injury. It was announced on December 11 that he will undergo season-ending surgery. Consider that the Hornets are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400 and 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games playing on 2 days rest. |
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12-14-22 | Warriors v. Pacers +1.5 | 119-125 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This will be the second game of a back-to-back for the Warriors and they have not been the same team on the road this season. They have only picked up two wins on the road, as I see this game staying very close until the very end. The Pacers are solid on the offensive end of the floor, as I see these two teams attacking one another until the very end. Neither team is special on the defensive end of the court, but they have shown that they can efficiently score. The Pacers are scoring the 12th most points per game and they have the 12th-highest three-point shooting percentage. The Warriors are surrendering the 23rd most points per game and they have been horrible on the road. They won't be able to slow down the Pacers and Indiana will be able to keep this game close until the end. The Warriors were forced to battle the Bucks on Tuesday night, as they will be exhausted for this game. According to dunksandthrees.com, the Pacers have the 16th-highest adjusted offensive rating, as they will continue to attack in this game. The Warriors have not been impressive on the defensive end of the court to begin this season. |
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12-14-22 | DePaul +3.5 v. Duquesne | 55-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units DePaul ranked 60th compared to the Dukes' 75th ranking, while they are far more efficient on defense - 122nd to 249th. In addition, DePaul has played a much more challenging schedule thus far, with the 111th-ranked schedule. Duquesne ranks just 287th in terms of strength of schedule thus far. I expect the Blue Demons to exploit the Dukes' shaky perimeter defense and put up high 3pt numbers. Roll with the Blue Demons for a critical road win. |
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12-14-22 | Stephen F Austin v. Louisiana Tech -195 | 80-79 | Loss | -195 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Lumberjacks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record. While the Bulldogs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss. |
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12-13-22 | Pelicans -120 v. Jazz | 100-121 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 46 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pelicans have been one of the hottest teams over the past few weeks and I don't believe the Jazz are good enough defensively to win this game at home. New Orleans currently has the sixth-highest adjusted offensive rating and the third-lowest defensive rating, according to dunksandthrees.com. They will show up on both ends of the court and slowly pull away throughout this game. They are the better overall team and the Jazz has continued to give up points. Utah is surrendering the 21st most points per game and they have the 25th-lowest adjusted defensive rating. New Orleans will continue to attack them throughout this game, as they are scoring the third most points per game and they have the fifth-highest shooting percentage. They can attack the rim or make it rain from deep, as I see them lighting up the scoreboard in this game. They are also good enough defensively to shut down this Jazz offense. They will get consistent stops throughout this game and slowly pull away. |
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12-13-22 | Capitals v. Blackhawks +1.5 | 7-3 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blackhawks are cognizant of the effort they're receiving from goaltender Arvid Soderblom, who made 29 saves against Winnipeg and consistently has kept the team competitive during its month-long malaise. "He's working his (butt) off in there and backdoor saves left and right," defenseman Seth Jones said. "We're obviously giving up too many chances. Your goalie's got to make timely saves for you, but you've got to do a little bit better job. "He's part of this team, and he's a guy that's never going to complain or show his emotion." Since winning their first two games against Eastern Conference foes this season, the Blackhawks have lost eight of nine. However, head to head, the home team is 13-4 in the last 17 meetings. |
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12-13-22 | Memphis +8 v. Alabama | 88-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Tigers (8-2) roll into the matchup with the Tide riding a six-game winning streak following an impressive 82-73 win over No. 11 Auburn in Atlanta on Saturday. Kendric Davis, the reigning American Athletic Conference Player of the Year, had a season-high 27 points and nine rebounds in the victory over Auburn. DeAndre Williams (16 points, team-high 11 rebounds), Alex Lomax (13 points, four boards) and Keonte Kennedy (nine points, three rebounds) also played key roles in the upset, as did Memphis' scrappy defense. The Tigers limited Auburn to 38.1 percent shooting from the field (24 of 63) and 25 percent from behind the arc (6 of 24). Finally consider that Crimson Tide is 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 home games. |
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12-13-22 | Golden Knights v. Jets -135 | 6-5 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jets offense has stepped up but the defense has been dominant, allowing only 2.56 goals per game with only 12 goals in the last five games. Josh Morrissey and Nate Schmidt have combined for 4.1 defensive point shares and 78 blocked shots while Brenden Dillon, Neal Pionk, and Dylan DeMelo have combined for 4.2 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. Moreover, goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has been great in the net with a .930 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average on 700 shots. |
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12-13-22 | Prairie View A&M v. Illinois-Chicago -180 | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Flames are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs a team with a losing SU record, and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall. |
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12-13-22 | Warriors v. Bucks -150 | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Golden State is just 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Tuesday games, while the Bucks are on an 11-2 Tuesday ATS run. Milwaukee is also 10-5 ATS at home overall and will be motivated to bounce back from their loss to Houston. The Bucks have also won their last two home games against the Warriors by 19 points on Jan. 13, 2022, and by 39 points on December 25, 2020. I am backing Milwaukee. |
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12-13-22 | Stars v. Devils -145 | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has been great but the defense has also been phenomenal, allowing only 2.33 goals per game. Hamilton and Seigenthaler have combined for 4.8 defensive point shares and 71 blocked shots while John Marino, Ryan Graves, and Damon Severson have combined for 5.1 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. Furthermore, backup goaltender Akira Schmidt has stepped up in the net with a .940 save percentage and a 1.70 goals-against average on 133 shots. |
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12-13-22 | Kings v. Sabres -103 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Kings look to rebound from a rough loss but I see the Sabres stepping up on their home ice and controlling this game. The Sabres, who average 3.86 goals per game, should pile on the goals against a Kings' defense that is allowing 3.61 goals per game with Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Sabres should also limit the Kings' offense with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net while goaltender Craig Anderson blanks shots on the net. The Sabres should win the game with a much-needed bounce-back performance on their home ice. |
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12-13-22 | Marshall -140 v. NC-Greensboro | 67-75 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Marshall is one of the hottest teams in the nation having won each of the last nine games after opening the season with a loss. Taevion Kinsey is a tough player, who is leading Marshall in scoring with an average of 24 9 points per game while shooting an impressive 55.3% overall and 42.9% from behind the three-point line. The Thundering Herd are shooting an above average 47.3% overall and are grabbing 42.4 rebounds per game, while in contrast UNC Greensboro is scoring 65.4 points per game while shooting only 39.4% and pulling down an average of just 36.2 rebounds per game. The advantage here obviously is obviously Marshall’s. Although UNC-Greensboro covered the number in its most recent outing, the Spartans failed to cover each of the four previous games. |
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12-12-22 | Creighton -154 v. Arizona State | 71-73 | Loss | -154 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Creighton is ranked higher than Arizona State according to Ken Pomeroy's ratings. The Bluejays are the much better offensive squad here. They are averaging a remarkable 111.9 points per 100 possessions while Arizona State is only at 105.9. ASU is shooting a poor 43.4% as a team and this is the best team they have seen all year. Creighton has registered victories against Texas Tech and Arkansas and will earn the victory in this one. |
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12-12-22 | Patriots -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month Rating: 4 Units When up against the wall, we’ll back Bilichick with every shot. For openers, he is 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS in his last 15 contests when coming off two losses, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS away. And then there is his 8-1 ATS career record away with a .500 record when coming off a loss. On the flip side, Arizona coach Kliff Kingsbury checks in at 12-18 ATS home with the Redbirds, including 5-15 ATS when not taking more than two points. Kingsbury is also 1-3 SUATS on Mondays, including 0-3 SUATS the last three. With the Pats 8-1 ATS when coming off a home loss, there’s no better time to take the Pats. Finally, Pats head coach Bill Belichick is 22-9 SUATS against NFC West foes in his NFL career, including 13-0 SU and 12-1 SUATS versus those coming off a loss |
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12-12-22 | Hawks v. Grizzlies -9.5 | 103-128 | Win | 100 | 2 h 37 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units NBA home favorites that have gone under the total by 30 or more combined points in their last three games are 129-72 ATS (+49.8 units) in the first half of the season, covering the spread by an average of +8.8 points per game. Since 2016, NBA home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points with a +3 to +7 points per game differential are 64-26 ATS following two or more consecutive unders versus teams with a +3 to -3 points per game differential. This situation has covered the spread by an average of +11.3 points per game and is 32-11 ATS over the last three seasons (2-0 ATS this year). Since January 17, 2022, the Grizzlies are 17-3 ATS off a game in which they made fewer than ten 3-pointers versus opponents with less than three days of rest. |
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12-12-22 | Heat v. Pacers +3.5 | 87-82 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Heat have allowed an average of 117 points in their last three road games which is above their season average of 110 points. The Pacers have a better offensive efficiency rating than the Heat, posting 109.4 points per 100 possessions while the Heat has dipped to 107.9 points per 100. Indiana continues to shine offensively, averaging 120 points in its last four games. They already beat the Heat by a 101-99 score in the lone meeting. Indiana is hot from deep, sinking at least 40% of their threes in three straight clashes including a 48% performance on Saturday. |
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12-12-22 | Stars v. Penguins -121 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 1 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins, who average 3.54 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and overwhelming the Stars' defense with speed and quick passes near the net. The Penguins, who allow only 2.96 goals per game, should also limit the Stars' offense with Jan Rutta, Jeff Petry, and the rest of the defensive unit stepping up and creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shooting lanes, allowing goaltender Tristan Jarry to make plenty of easy saves. The Penguins should win the game to win their sixth consecutive game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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12-11-22 | Capitals v. Jets -121 | 5-2 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Capitals are looking to extend their winning streak and pull off the upset on the road and provide great odds in the process. The problem is that they face one of the best teams in the Western Conference in the Jets that look to overwhelm them on both ends of the ice. The Jets, who average 3.35 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Kyle Connor, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Jets, who allow only 2.46 goals per game should also limit the Capitals' offense with Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to make plenty of big saves. The Jets should win the game to win their fifth game in a row with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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12-11-22 | Tennessee -5 v. Maryland | 56-53 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Tennessee comes in as the hotter of the two teams with seven straight wins and the more impressive resume that includes wins over Gonzaga and Kansas. They have the #1 ranked defense in college basketball and are holding the opposition to 33% shooting. They are 3-1 in neutral games thus far and also possess the 35th most efficient offense in college basketball. Maryland has played well to date and does have quality wins over Miami and Illinois thus far. With the game played at a neutral site, expect defense to travel better than offense. With that in mind, the relentless Volunteers' defense will carry the day and add an 8th straight win to the Volunteers resume. |
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12-11-22 | Panthers v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
Mismatch of the Week Rating: 5 Units So why is it, that the Seahawks a measly 3.5-point favorite at home against the 4-8 Panthers? Is Vegas telling us something? They may be trying, but we’re not buying. Not with Carolina 0-3 SUATS in NFC West division duke outs this season, and 0-3 SUATS the last three games in this series. And not with the Panthers a pussycat-like 0-4 ATS in games when coming off a Bye week. Turn it around and you’ll find a Seahawks squad 7-3 ATS against foes coming off a Bye week. Better yet, the Seahawks are 25-3 SU and 21-6-1 ATS in games when coming off consecutive ATS losses under head coach Pete Carroll, including 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS at home. |
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12-11-22 | Bucs +3.5 v. 49ers | Top | 7-35 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
NFC Game of the Week Rating: 4 Units Brady is simply the best as an underdog, going 41-17-1 ATS in his illustrious career, including 19-4-1 ATS when his team is seeking revenge and 17-5 ATS when his team is coming off an ATS loss. He also stands 21-6 SU in his career in games in which his team is .500 on the season. Perhaps even more impressive is Brady’s 45-14 SU and 43-12-4 ATS mark in games against foes with a better record, including 24-6 ATS when taking points. With Monday night’s stirring comeback win over the Saints, the Bucs currently hold down the No. 4 seed in the NFC playoff picture while the Niners lay claim to the No. 2 seed. Frisco is just 1-7 ATS as non-division home chalk of fewer than four points and Tampa Bay is 7-1-2 ATS as a dog after being a favorite the previous game. Finally consider that playing against any .666 or greater single-digit NFL regular season home team coming off consecutive home wins if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is 14-2-1 since 1983. |
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12-11-22 | Jaguars v. Titans -170 | 36-22 | Loss | -170 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Jacksonville squad that stands 0-11 ATS in the second of consecutive away games. Once again we’ll take a stand and back the better team, one who brings a 9-0 ATS record into this division duel in games when both teams were taking points in their last game. Besides, head coach Mike Vrabel has slayed it in his NFL career, going 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in his career, including 6-0-1 ATS when not a double-digit favorite. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants +7 | 48-22 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 33 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units There have been 26 games that played to an overtime tie in the NFL since 1980. The good news for Big Blue is that home teams not favored by 3 or more points are 9-2 SUATS when coming off a kiss-you-sister-contest, including 6-0 SUATS versus foes coming off a win. The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in the first of consecutive road games, 1-5 ATS in their last six division road games, and 2-8 ATS as road chalk of three or more points, and the G-Men 6-2 ATS when seeking revenge in this series, the points are the play in this fray. |
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12-11-22 | Browns +6 v. Bengals | 10-23 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Watson dresses up today sporting a 10-2-1 ATS NFL career mark as a dog of six or fewer points versus sub .700 opposition, as well as 9-3-1 ATS as a road dog against sub .700 foes. Meanwhile, the Bengals enter off last week’s hard-fought battle with the Chiefs at just 1-6 ATS as division home chalk of fewer than seven points, as well as 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in Game Thirteen of the season when taking on division foes. |
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12-10-22 | Celtics v. Warriors +3 | 107-123 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units |
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12-10-22 | Thunder v. Cavs -5.5 | 102-110 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland is playing the second game of a back-to-back situation here but on the plus side, at least there was no travel involved for them as both games are at home. The Cavaliers have gotten healthier over the last week or so with Love and Allen both returning to action to bolster their frontcourt. Oklahoma City has played decent basketball but they lack much of a frontcourt presence to contend with Cleveland’s low block presence. The Thunder are second-worst in the league in scoring defense this season and that is going to be problematic, especially since the Cavaliers are #1 in that category. While fatigue could be a small factor, Cleveland’s depth and talent is enough to get them the victory here. |
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12-10-22 | Arizona v. Indiana | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units We have a pair of elite teams on the floor in this contest with no home court advantage to speak of as this one takes place on a neutral floor. These teams are two of the top three shooting teams in the country, so it is going to be a highly entertaining contest. Arizona is a very team-oriented offense and they are good on the glass. The Wildcats do have issues on the defensive end of the floor as the Hoosiers have the advantage in that department. With that said, Arizona has four guys that average in double figures this season, two others that put up more than nine points a night and a dynamic point guard in Kriisa, who seems to be a step ahead of opposing defenses. The Wildcats scratch out a win in a terrific basketball game. |
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12-10-22 | Nets v. Pacers -113 | 136-133 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Because Saturday is the second night of a back-to-back for the Nets, Ben Simmons is not expected to play after returning Friday following a four-game absence caused by a calf injury. Neither is T.J. Warren, who returned Dec. 2 from missing nearly two years while recovering from foot injuries. Vaughn was non-committal about whether Durant would play as the Nets are hoping to limit his minutes. Indiana is 3-5 since its last encounter with the Nets. After losing five times on a seven-game road trip, the Pacers improved to 8-4 at home with a 121-111 victory over the Washington Wizards on Friday night. The Pacers hit 18 3-pointers vs. Washington after making 19 in a loss at Minnesota on Wednesday. Indiana limited the Wizards to 40 percent shooting in the second half after Washington made 64.3 percent of its field-goal attempts in the first half. Indiana's Buddy Hield scored a season-high 28 points on 12-of-19 shooting, including 4 of 10 from 3-point range. He has made at least four 3-pointers in four consecutive games, and he put up 26 points in the last meeting with the Nets. Consider that the Nets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. |
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12-10-22 | Clippers v. Wizards +5.5 | 114-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Despite the emotional return of Wall, the Clipper come into this game very banged up and with a compromised bench. Jackson and Powell represent two of the Clippers better shooters from long range and will be missed against a Wizard team that has been scoring at a high rate despite their losing streak. In addition, Washington is 3-1 this season in the second games of back-to-backs. The Clippers have staked their claim this season on scoring defense and rebounding but the Wizards are nearly as effective on the glass and are shooting the ball at a high rate. Look for the Wizards to snap their losing streak against an inconsistent Clippers team. |
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12-10-22 | Navy v. Army +3 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Ken “Nine Lives” Niumatalolo and the Midshipmen, who are staring down the barrel of their third straight losing campaign. Even so, a win against Army can cure a lot of ills, and Navy backers appear to be on board, moving the line from Army -1.5 to pick in just a few hours – not that strange considering the Mids have gone 16-4 SU in the last 20 meetings while being made the favorite 17 times. However, note that the team with the better win percentage in this series (Army this season), is 11-1 SU and 8-4 ATS since 1980 in games in which Air Force has already claimed the CIC trophy. Then there’s the matter of the Black Knights’ 17-13 loss to Navy in 2021 as 7-point chalk. Revenge is the ultimate weapon in military battles, especially for those seeking it against foes sporting a losing record, as they’ve gone 15-5 SU and 13-7 ATS in this role in these military matters since 1995, including 5-0 ATS for those teams who score 34 or more points in their previous game. The series has also seen Army go 7-1 ATS with revenge when coming off a win, including 4-0 ATS the last four years. |
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12-10-22 | Senators v. Predators -129 | 3-2 | Loss | -129 | 4 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Nashville is currently 11th in the Western Conference with 26 points but only two points behind the current eighth-place team Minnesota. The Predators at home are 7-3-2. Ottawa is next to last in the Eastern Conference. The Senators have just 22 points and are far off the pace for one of the top eight places in the conference. Ottawa is 4-6-2 on the road this season. Ottawa has lost 14 of the last 20 overall and has lost 39 of the last 58 when playing an opponent from the Central division. Nashville dominates this matchup with the Predators winning each of the last seven played on their home ice against Ottawa and nine of the last 12 overall against the Senators. |
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12-10-22 | Drexel v. La Salle -155 | 65-58 | Loss | -155 | 2 h 8 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units La Salle has the momentum coming into this one. Not only have the Explorers won the last two games in this rivalry by at least eight points, when it comes to this season, they have covered the spread in three of their last four games as a favorite. Drexel has struggled recently, and has failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as an underdog. I will back La Salle in this one. |
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12-09-22 | Washington +16.5 v. Gonzaga | 60-77 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 20 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Zags will keep their home streak intact with a win in this game but this is too big a spread for the Zags based on their recent play. They are turning the ball over too much and haven't necessarily been suffocating on the defensive end. Washington should be able to hang close enough in this game thanks to the Zags turnover issues and Washington's efficiency on the defensive end, ranked 55th in the country. Gonzaga has not yet hit their stride and are still trying to find themselves. They have only beaten two opponents by more than 16 points this season. The Huskies will hang in this game enough to cover the point spread. |
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12-09-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +1.5 | 117-128 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units They say styles make matchups and, in this case, the style of the Pelicans should give Phoenix problems. With Ingram out, Williamson has gotten the bulk of the touches for the Pelicans and his playing his best basketball in two seasons. In truth, he is a nightmare matchup for most teams but particularly a nightmare for Phoenix as they continue to play without Cameron Johnson. Williamson should dominate the paint against the rather light Suns. In other news, while it will obviously benefit the Suns going forward having Paul back, he has a lot of rust to shake off his 37-year old body and looked to be at least a step slow on Wednesday night. If Alvarado is cleared to play, the pesky point guard will surely cause fits for Paul as he tries to get up to speed. This feels like a chance for the Pelicans to make an early statement at home against the recent class of the Western Conference. |
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12-09-22 | Jets -135 v. Blackhawks | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 25 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Currently riding a six-game losing streak on own ice, the Blackhawks will be hoping to notch just their second victory in their past 12 outings. Facing off against the Jets, though, is an event Chicago will not be looking forward to. The ‘Hawks have already dropped six of their previous seven decisions against Winnipeg, being beaten by more than one tally in five of those games. A whopping 10 of the most recent 13 overall defeats of the Blackhawks have also been by a margin of at least two markers, while the Jets have triumphed by a goal-gap of at least three (!) snipes in each of their last five wins. |
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12-09-22 | Kings v. Cavs -155 | 106-95 | Loss | -155 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Cleveland has won its last seven home games all by at least 10 points or more, and the Kings have dropped three of their last four home games by at least nine-points. Although the Kings losses were against good competition, Cleveland is the best home team in the NBA right now, and will be dialed in to get revenge from their loss to the Kings earlier this season. Even if Mitchell cannot play, the Cavs are deep enough to make this happen. Daris Garland also had a season low six points the last team he faced the Kings and should show up in a big way tonight. I like Cleveland. |
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12-09-22 | Raptors v. Magic +9 | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Raptors are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Friday games. The Magic will ride the momentum of Wednesday's victory, scoring 60-plus points in the paint against Toronto's sub-par interior defense. I'll bet the Magic cover the seven-point spread at Amway Center. |
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12-09-22 | Flames v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Consider that the Flames are 4-11 in their last 15 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game, 2-6 in their last 8 vs. Metropolitan, and 2-7 in their last 9 road games. While the Blue Jackets are 7-3 in their last 10 games following a home loss of 3 or more goals. |
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12-09-22 | Penguins -144 v. Sabres | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Pittsburgh Penguins are currently one of the hottest teams in the NHL. They are sporting a fantastic 8-1-1 record in their last 10 games and have won three bouts in a row, outscoring the opposition by eight goals in that three-game winning streak. The Sabres are an improved team and can score, but have only won six of their 15 home games on the season. The Penguins are dazzling in the offensive end, recording 14 goals in their last three games and rank fourth in the NHL with an xGF/60 minutes of 3.0 goals. Buffalo's top strength is the goal-scoring but only has an xGF/60 minutes of 2.71 goals at 5 on 5. Also, the Sabres allow a lot of goals, squandering 23 goals in their last five games. |
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12-08-22 | Michigan -190 v. Minnesota | 90-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Michigan is a lot better than their No. 47 KenPom ranking would indicate or their 5-3 record for that matter. Their three losses were all against excellent teams, falling at 8-1 Arizona State, losing by a bucket to No. 3 Virginia, and blowing a late lead before losing against No. 16 Kentucky. Minnesota does not yet have a quality win and got their doors blown in by Purdue most recently. They were manhandled by Zach Edey and a much larger, more physical Purdue team. Michigan poses the same type of problem for Minnesota with their dominant big man, Dickinson. I see an easy win for a superior Michigan team. Take the Wolverines to cover. |
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12-08-22 | Raiders -6.5 v. Rams | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 48 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units It’s now three consecutive wins for the Raiders, with RB Josh Jacobs off another monster game (26 carries, 144 yards, TD), and WR Davante Adams playing up to expectations (eight catches 177 yards, two TDs). The bottom line to this contest is there could be a Baker Mayfield sighting for the Rams tonight (signed but learning a new system), and Los Angeles falls to 2-13 ATS in games when coming off a loss as a dog against a foe coming off a win as a favorite. Back the better team as it keeps their playoff hopes alive. |
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12-08-22 | Clippers v. Heat -6 | 110-115 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Los Angeles Clippers will try to rebound from a confounding loss in the first half of a back-to-back set when they continue a four-game road swing today against the Miami Heat. After opening its Eastern Conference tour on Monday with a 119-117 victory over the Charlotte Hornets, Los Angeles coughed up an 18-point, first-quarter lead on Wednesday and lost in overtime to the Orlando Magic, 116-111. The Clippers went the final 3:22 of regulation without scoring against the team with the NBA's worst record, giving up the last six points. Los Angeles again was outscored 6-0 down the stretch of overtime. Since Nov. 19, Los Angeles is 5-5 and scored at least 114 points in each of the five wins. The Clippers scored 112 points or fewer in each of the five losses. Los Angeles' offensive woes were pronounced at Orlando. Consider as well that the Clippers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. |
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12-08-22 | Red Wings +1.5 v. Panthers | 1-5 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Panthers are facing two major issues: injuries among their forwards and uncertainty at goalie. Panthers coach Paul Maurice played Tuesday's game without four of his top nine forwards: captain Aleksander Barkov (non-COVID illness); Anton Lundell (upper-body injury); Anthony Duclair (foot); and Patric Hornqvist (upper body). Hornqvist and Duclair are on injured reserve, although the latter could return this month. Barkov and Lundell are day-to-day. Barkov (39) and Duclair (31) combined for 70 goals last season, and Lundell, 21, is a player on the rise with 22 goals in 89 NHL games. At goalie, Spencer Knight was pulled on Tuesday after allowing three goals on 15 shots. Sergei Bobrovsky, who opened the season as the starter, has struggled this season. He is 4-6-1 with a 3.84 goals-against average that is on pace to be the worst GAA of his 13-year career. Knight has been the better goalie this season, going 8-4-3 with a 2.64 GAA. But it remains to be seen if Knight getting pulled on Tuesday will open the door for a Bobrovsky start today. Meanwhile, the rebuilding Red Wings are much improved and will enter today on a two-game win streak. In fact, Detroit has won four straight road games. Overall this season, Detroit is 6-3-2 on the road. The Red Wings are getting excellent goaltending from Ville Husso, who is 11-4-3 with a 2.54 GAA. The 27-year-old native of Finland had a career year for St. Louis last season, going 25-7-6 with a 2.56 GAA. |
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12-08-22 | Kings v. Maple Leafs -165 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has stepped up but the defense has carried the Maple Leafs, allowing only 2.44 goals per game with only eight goals in the last five games. Mark Giordano and Justin Holl have combined for 3.7 defensive point shares and 101 blocked shots while Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Liljegren have combined for 3.0 defensive point shares to give the Maple Leafs two great defensive pairings. In addition, goaltender Ilya Samsonov has been great in the net with a .924 save percentage and a 2.09 goals-against average on 238 shots. |
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12-07-22 | Celtics v. Suns | 125-98 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 3 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units This game could easily go either way, as the two of the best teams in the NBA take on each other for the first time in 2022-23. Chris Paul will probably miss his 15th consecutive game, but the Celtics could be shorthanded, too. Both Malcolm Brogdon and Al Horford are important players for this Boston team, and if they sit out, I’m going with the Suns. Phoenix has won seven of its last eight games on the home court. The Suns will be highly motivated to bounce back from that heavy loss at Dallas and prove their worth against the NBA-leading Celtics. Phoenix is 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 encounters with Boston. |
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12-07-22 | Bruins -166 v. Avalanche | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The offense has been dominant but the defense has been great as well, allowing only 2.17 goals per game with only seven goals in the last four games. Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo have combined for 4.4 defensive point shares and 60 blocked shots while Connor Clifton, Matt Grzelcyk, and Charlie McAvoy have combined for 3.9 defensive point shares to add depth to the unit. In addition, goaltender Linus Ullmark has been solid in the net with a .936 save percentage and a 1.93 goals-against average on 486 shots. |
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12-07-22 | Nebraska v. Indiana -12.5 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 50 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Hoosiers have won seven of their last eight games. Even though they were held to their lowest offensive output of the season against Rutgers, they are very good offensively, especially at home where they are scoring more than 85 points per game while making 56 percent of their shots. They have also shot the ball well from the free throw line and they’re very aggressive on the offensive glass, which will give them more scoring opportunities. They also do a good job protecting the ball and won’t give the Cornhuskers a lot of easy scoring opportunities. |
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12-07-22 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets +1.5 | 9-4 | Loss | -170 | 3 h 51 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Luukkonen has conceded three or more goals in four of his five appearances this season, giving him a 4.17 GAA and .856 save percentage on the year. Columbus swept the three-game season series a year ago and is 10-3-2 against the Sabres over the previous six seasons. |
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12-06-22 | Mavs v. Nuggets -195 | 116-115 | Loss | -195 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Nuggets were quite shorthanded in those two games against Dallas in November, missing both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. This time around, Denver is without Michael Porter Jr. (heel), while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (wrist) is questionable to play. The Mavericks, on the other side, might miss Christian Wood due to non-COVID illness. I’m expecting Nikola Jokic to torture the Mavericks in the paint, especially if Wood remains on the shelf. The Nuggets should be motivated to improve on the defensive side of the ball after a couple of straight losses, while the Mavericks will continue to lean on their 3-point shooting. There will be tired legs among the Mavs after a tough matchup against the Suns on Monday night, so I’m going with the Nuggets to cover. |
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12-06-22 | Iowa +2.5 v. Duke | 62-74 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Duke has been overvalued in the betting market so far this season, covering the spread just twice in its last six games. Iowa has been undervalued dating back to the end of last year, covering in 11 of its last 15 contests. The Hawkeyes have won six straight games against ACC opponents and have been one of the top offensive teams in college basketball. Duke does not have good shooting numbers, which is going to be tough to correct in a neutral-site venue. |
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12-06-22 | Pistons +7.5 v. Heat | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Heat entered Monday night winners of four of their previous five games and stood tied for second in the Southeast Division with the Wizards, two games behind the Hawks for the top spot. Miami is 2-2 in the second game of back-to-back situations this season with a -2.7-ppg scoring differential (108.3 ppg for, 111 ppg against) in those contests. The Heat have posted an 8-4 record at home this season with a +1.7-ppg scoring margin (111 ppg for, 109.3 ppg against) in South Beach. Miami is 7-8 against Eastern Conference foes on the season with a -1.7-ppg scoring differential (108.6 ppg for, 110.3 ppg against) to date. |
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12-06-22 | Blues v. Islanders -163 | 7-4 | Loss | -163 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Blues are looking to pull off the upset but playing the second game of a back-to-back, the Islanders look to take advantage of a tired team. The Islanders, who average 3.15 goals per game, should find the back of the net throughout the game with Mathew Barzal, Brock Nelson, and the rest of the forward unit establishing a strong offensive zone presence and creating open shots with great puck movement while Noah Dobson and Ryan Pulock generate shots on the net from the blue line. The Islanders, who allow only 2.54 goals per game, should also limit a Blues offense that averages only 2.83 goals per game with Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net, allowing goaltender Ilya Sorokin to make plenty of big saves. The Islanders should win the game with a dominant performance on their home ice. |
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12-06-22 | Illinois v. Texas -145 | 85-78 | Loss | -145 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Longhorns can test their chops in this game away from the friendly confines of the Moody Center in Austin. The key to this game will be the Longhorns' ability to shut down the opposition, particularly from long range. The Illini have shot 48% from the field but have struggled against top-flight competition this season and this is the toughest team they've seen all year. Texas will force turnovers and turn them into transition baskets. The Longhorns are extremely efficient on both ends, 15th on offense and 3rd on defense. Texas will need to force turnovers to take away the Illini's advantage on the glass and keep them from pushing the tempo. Look for Texas to slow down the Illini's ability to run and cause enough turnovers to pull away from the turnover-prone Fighting Illini. |
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12-05-22 | Kent State +15 v. Gonzaga | 66-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Kent State is exactly the opposite of the type of team that you want to face after a crushing loss. The Golden Flashes are a sneaky-good opponent that are flying under the radar, covering the spread in every game this season. They are one of the most experienced teams in the country, led by a trio of seniors, so they are prepared for this type of game. Kent State gave Houston all it could handle, so I am not worried about the Golden Flashes being overwhelmed. I would be concerned about Gonzaga’s intensity level if I were a Bulldogs’ fan, as they are coming off a crushing loss and will not be motivated by the name on the jersey in this spot. They have been overvalued this year, covering the spread once in their last seven games. |
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12-05-22 | Capitals v. Oilers -145 | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Capitals look to pull off the upset but the Oilers, who have won four of their last five games, look to control this game on both ends of the ice. The Oilers, who average 3.48 goals per game, should constantly find the back of the net with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the rest of the forward unit carrying the puck into the offensive zone and creating open shots with great puck movement. The Oilers should also limit a Capitals offense that has scored only four goals in their last two games with Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, and the rest of the defensive unit creating turnovers in the defensive zone and limiting shots on the net while Stuart Skinner steps up and blank shots on the net. The Oilers should win the game with a strong performance on their home ice. |
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12-05-22 | Saints v. Bucs -170 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units The Saints have decided to stick with Andy Dalton, it appears, but the veteran signal-caller has not rewarded their faith. He has struggled with turnovers and has certainly suffered from a lack of a consistent running game. Both teams are laboring but the Bucs have more weapons and certainly more incentive and hope of winning this game. I like this line for the Bucs at slightly over a field goal after starting out at almost a touchdown. |
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12-05-22 | Celtics v. Raptors -122 | 116-110 | Loss | -122 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Boston may be ripe for an upset in this spot against the Raptors. The Raptors hold onto the ball better at home than on the road and possess the kind of wings that can cause Boston problems. Barnes, Siakam and Aunoby are all plus defenders that can interchange positions which can cause the Celtics problems. Toronto is a solid 12th in the NBA in defending the 3pt shot which is critical against a Celtics' team that thrives on ball movement and volume from the 3pt line. In addition, Boston will likely be without Horford in this one which will weaken an already suspect rebounding team. Keep an eye on Marcus Smart as well. He hurt his hip near the end of the Miami loss and it will be interesting how he responds to a back-to-back. This is a solid spot to take the points with a good home team. |
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12-04-22 | Oregon v. UCLA -9.5 | 56-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 21 m | Show | |
Rating: 2 Units Oregon has owned UCLA over the last two years, and I’m expecting the Bruins to get revenge today in front of the home fans. At the moment, UCLA looks like a better team than the Ducks, who have struggled to shoot the rock so far this season. I’m looking for the Bruins’ backcourt to make a difference, so keep your eyes on Jaquez, Bailey, and Tyger Campbell, who had eight assists against Stanford. On the other side, the Ducks will try to attack the rim and feed N’Faly Dante and Kel’el Ware in the paint. But without a solid shooting night from deep, I highly doubt their chances to keep it close or upset the Bruins in LA. |
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12-04-22 | Chiefs -130 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -130 | 49 h 21 m | Show |
AFC Blowout of the Month Rating: 5 Units Patrick Mahomes is on a path towards an MVP season. Thru 11 games this season he’s completed 66.1% of his passes for 3,585 yards, 29 TDs and 8 INTs. Mahomes is also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in starts during November and December when not favored by more than 3 points. And he’s 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in all games in which the Chiefs are seeking revenge. The revenge we’re referring to: last season’s AFC championship game loss which denied Kansas City a Super Bowl appearance, instead sending the Bengals to the big game. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 3-10 SU and 3-8-2 ATS as a home dog against greater than .400 opponents, including 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or fewer points. With the Bengals 3-7 ATS as non-division home dogs of fewer than 6 points. To cap it all off consider that Kansas City is 40-7 SU in Patrick Mahomes’ NFL starts from November out. He is also 26-0 in his last 26 starts in November and December. |