11-21-21 |
Old Dominion v. Pennsylvania +2.5 |
|
63-71 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Quakers have looked really good even with a 2-4 record. They have had a tough schedule. The Monarchs have had an easy schedule but have looked terrible. Their offense is a mess. The last two games, they scored 96 points combined on 30.4 percent shooting. The wrong team is favored in this game.
|
11-20-21 |
Capitals -115 v. Sharks |
|
4-0 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 54 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Sharks have lost 5 of their last 7 games while the Caps have won 5 of their last 6 games. The Caps were the best team in the league last season on the road and they are 5-1-2 on the road this season. Adin Hill is expected to start for the Sharks and he is 4-4-0 with a 3.11 GAA this season. The Caps have won five of the last 7 games between these teams in San Jose and 5 of the last 6 meetings overall.
|
11-20-21 |
76ers v. Blazers -6 |
|
111-118 |
Win
|
100 |
13 h 60 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Doc Rivers has already said Joel Embiid isn’t playing Saturday night at Portland, and the Sixers come off a huge win at Denver without him after five straight losses (0-5 ATS). Last game of a road trip. My theory: the Sixers are content with their Denver win and go back to being lousy without Embiid. The Blazers are 7-1 at home and have covered their last four as favorites. Huge home edge. Blazers to cover.
|
11-20-21 |
Jazz -7.5 v. Kings |
|
123-105 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 8 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units After a win over the Pistons, the Kings have reverted back to their struggling ways, losing both of the last two games by at least 10 points. Playing at home hasn’t helped them much this season, either, given their 2-5 record there ATS. This isn’t part of a back-to-back situation for the Jazz, so there shouldn’t be any rest days to worry about. This has plenty of blowout potential.
|
11-20-21 |
Blue Jackets v. Golden Knights -138 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
11 h 42 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Knights are still missing many key players, but they have still won 7 of their last 10 games and 5 of their last 6 home games. Elvis Merzlikins has looked much worse lately, allowing at least three goals in each of his last three games. Robin Lehner has been much better since the start of the season, and I think the Blue Jackets will have a tough time against the Golden Knights defense. I like the Knights at home.
|
11-20-21 |
Texas-Arlington v. San Diego State UNDER 128 |
|
62-68 |
Loss |
-110 |
10 h 0 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Aztecs have one of the best defenses in the country. They are only allowing 60.7 PPG and they have had some tough competition to start this season. Now they face the Mavericks who are terrible offensively. They only average 64 PPG which doesn’t tell the entire story. They scored 104 against a non-division I school and they had a game go into overtime. According to Kenpom, they are 324th in adjusted offensive efficiency. These teams are terrible from behind the arc and at the free throw line which helps the under a lot. The Aztecs like to play at a slow pace and have a defensive mentality. This is going to be a boring game to watch with points being very hard to come by. Under is the play.
|
11-20-21 |
Red Wings v. Coyotes +132 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
132 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Coyotes aren’t as bad of a team as their record shows, and they have played each of their last two games close. The Red Wings have been struggling losing four of the last five games and losing three straight road games allowing five goals in every game. Scott Wedgewood has been very good for the Coyotes after picking him up on waivers. The Coyotes have just one home win this season, but the Red Wings are 3-7-0 on the road. Take the home dog.
|
11-20-21 |
Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech |
|
23-0 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 39 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units OSU’s tough-as-nails defense has limited five foes to a season low yardage, including each of the last three games. The Pokes are ranked third in the country in Total Defense (4.58 yards per play allowed), are tied with Marshall for the top spot in Sacks (37), and allow just 14.8 fi rst downs per contest (ranked 5th). They held TCU QB Chandler Morris to just 103 yards passing in Saturday’s 63-17 win, one week after Morris lit up Baylor for 461 yards. Consider that the 'Pokes are getting better by the week, as 9-0 ATS & 10-1 SU runs attest.
|
11-20-21 |
Western Illinois v. DePaul -9.5 |
|
80-84 |
Loss |
-103 |
8 h 4 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units My numbers have DePaul winning this by 13 points and I would play 9.5 or -10 as well. DePaul has yet to lose ATS, going 2-0-1 to open the season. On Thursday they notched an upset win against Rutgers and now are less double digit favorites against Western Illinois. This is mostly because the Leathernecks beat Nebraska, but Nebraska just isn't playing well, and DePaul will be a much tougher test for Western Illinois. Trust the model.
|
11-20-21 |
Oregon +3.5 v. Utah |
|
7-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
72 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 3 Units Kyle Whittingham has made Utah a West Coast powerhouse, and no fun to play at all, but despite his great work over the years, Kyle is just 10-18 ATS versus .900 or greater opponents, including 2-11 ATS as the favorite. Oregon won at Ohio State earlier this year, and winning a game at the Horseshoe is a Get Out of Jail Free card in our minds. Ducks’ Head Coach Mario Cristobal, the dream candidate in the hearts of Miami Hurricanes fans hyperventilating to replace Manny Diaz, is 6-1 SUATS away versus .700 or greater foes. Much like Baron Von Raschke applying the Claw to another helpless opponent in the ring. Consider that Cristobal is 32-12 SU in games with the better record, including 3-0 SUATS as a dog.
|
11-20-21 |
Flames v. Islanders -108 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-108 |
10 h 55 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Islanders finally get to play in their brand-new arena after 13 straight road games to begin the season. New York has a lot of talent and is well-coached, but its has scored just six goals in its past five games. The Islanders lost 6-1 to the Panthers on Tuesday, and Barry Trotz's teams usually play inspired hockey after allowing six or more goals. This will be the Flames' sixth road game in nine days and New York will be playing with three days of rest. Take the hungry host.
|
11-20-21 |
Bruins v. Flyers +126 |
|
5-2 |
Loss |
-100 |
8 h 40 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Linus Ullmark is starting for the Bruins and he is just 3-3-0 with a 3.01 GAA on the season. Martin Jones is 3-1-0 this season with a 2.27 GAA and .931 save percentage, so he isn’t much of a downgrade from Hart. The Bruins won 6 of 8 games in the shortened season last year but they lost the only matchup between these teams this season. The Flyers are a little banged up without Ryan Ellis or Kevin Hayes, but the Bruins are 2-4-0 on the road. I like the value in the home dog.
|
11-20-21 |
Predators -117 v. Canadiens |
|
3-6 |
Loss |
-117 |
8 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Predators were shutout in their last game, but they were hitting posts along with getting shutdown by Jack Campbell, who has been very good this season. However, tonight they won’t have as tough of a test against the porous Canadiens. The Predators have won 7 of their last 10 games and Juuse Saros has been very good for them. The Canadiens have lost 7 of their last 8 games and Jake Allen is expected to be out again. Take the Preds on the road.
|
11-20-21 |
Minnesota -7.5 v. Indiana |
|
35-14 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 23 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Back-to-back SUATS losses to a pair of I’s (Illinois and Iowa) have knocked the boat-rowers out of the water; however, IU presents a great chance to get the oars in the water again. The Hoosiers have had a miserable fall after 2020. Indiana stands 2-8 / 0-7, including 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in the last four games, and are surrendering 192 YPG more than what they gained. IU has gone bowling the last two seasons, and this season they will also have time to go bowling, play bocce, and fi nd out if Mike Woodson is the right choice for Hoosiers hoops. It’s not an easy fi x for Hoosier football, and we don’t have the solution here.
|
11-20-21 |
Illinois +13 v. Iowa |
|
23-33 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hawkeyes are 0-4 ITS (In the Stats) in their last six games, after beginning the season holding opponents to seasonlow or second low yardage in the fi rst six. Iowa is also a shaky 2-9 ATS as a conference home favorite of more than 10 points, and are 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games. In the blue corner we have the Illini, who are 4-1 ATS on the road after a bye. Dick Butkus’ alma mater is also 7-2 ATS as a conference road dog of 17 or fewer points. While Iowa is leaking oil, our very own “impervious to leaks” Well Oiled Machine says 4-6 teams coming off a win, while taking double digits in Game Eleven of the season, are a Chunky Soup hearty 35-20-1 ATS since 1980,
|
11-20-21 |
Northern Arizona v. UT-Rio Grande Valley +4 |
|
89-87 |
Win
|
100 |
2 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I have the wrong team favored on this one as the model is making the Vaqueros -2. We've been pretty successful with the home underdogs so let's look to keep it rolling with this sizable edge. I'd play it all the way down to +1.5 but it's been going the other way today so you might be able to get an even better number before the 2 p.m. tipoff.
|
11-20-21 |
Richmond v. Drake -4.5 |
|
70-73 |
Loss |
-110 |
4 h 54 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Drake has played two games so far, and the stat line already looks like a Drake one from last season when the team started 18-0. The Bulldogs shoot at a high percentage (53.5), defend well (37.7 shooting percent allowed) and are shooting 51.1 percent from 3-point land. They also have all five starters back. A well coached team of upperclassmen doesn't make mistakes often. The home edge for Drake against Richmond gives this more value than the number indicates. Bulldogs cover.
|
11-20-21 |
Stanford v. Baylor -14.5 |
|
48-86 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 2 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Bears have looked incredible to start this season. They have been dominant on both sides of the ball as they are ranked sixth in the nation in adjusted efficiency margin, per Kenpom. The Cardinal are 3-1 but haven’t looked good. In their one road game, they lost by 16 as a 3.5 point favorite. Now they have to go to Waco to face the reigning champions. The Bears amazing offense and fast pace should carry them to a huge win and cover.
|
11-20-21 |
Iowa State +4 v. Oklahoma |
Top |
21-28 |
Loss |
-115 |
64 h 12 m |
Show
|
4* Big-12 Play of the Day Iowa State is a solid 5-1 ATS away with conference revenge, and 4-1 ATS as dogs of less than 10 points. Meanwhile, the deflated Sooners have the look of “bubble burst” written all over them after falling to the Baylor Bears, and we’ll look for the Clones to stick another pin in their balloon today, especially since Oklahoma is 0-5 ATS at home in this series when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Sooners are also 6-10 ATS in games when coming off their first loss of the season, including 2-7 ATS versus foes who allow fewer than 23 PPG. ISU head coach Matt Campbell going against teams coming off an upset loss, is 6-0 ATS as a dog when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite, as well as 8-2 ATS in games when his team was upset. Also, playing against any unrested college football favorite from Game Eight or later who allows 13.3 or more PPG on the season coming off its first loss of the season if they were favored by 4 or more points in the loss and lost to the spread by 14 or more points, if they are facing an opponent coming off a loss is a perfect 22-0 since 1980.
|
11-20-21 |
Michigan v. UNLV +13 |
|
74-61 |
Push |
0 |
14 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This seems like a big number considering how mediocre Michigan has looked and that UNLV is unbeaten, a veteran team and at home, although technically a neutral site at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas in something called the Roman Main Event. I'd expect this game to do massive betting action because of the start time: 12:30 early Saturday morning ET. People love to chase on late-night games -- why Hawaii football home games do so well. That unusual tip time might affect the Wolverines a lot more than the Rebs as well.
|
11-19-21 |
Mavs v. Suns UNDER 212 |
|
104-112 |
Loss |
-110 |
12 h 13 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Unit This total is perplexing considering these teams combined for 203 points in the same gym on Wednesday when the Mavs were without Luka Doncic. He's listed as doubtful tonight. Why would the score change much? Dallas only got 98 points in the first game despite shooting 16-for-32 from deep, and the Mavericks aren't repeating that.
|
11-19-21 |
Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken UNDER 6 |
|
7-3 |
Loss |
-105 |
13 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units You know the rule: 6.5 goals means Under. Should have won on Under 6 in the Avs' last game but they scored an empty-netter with 11 seconds left to push. Colorado remains without a handful of key offensive players led by Nathan MacKinnon. The Kraken are really starting to fade offensively, scoring two goals in each of their past two. I see a 4-2 final here in Colorado's first trip to Seattle.
|
11-19-21 |
Air Force +2 v. Nevada |
Top |
41-39 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 26 m |
Show
|
5* MWC Game of the Week The Wolf Pack is yet another team that appears to have hit the wall, going 2-2 the past four games following a 5-1 start to the season. Nevada is also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS as a dog or as a favorite of fewer than 4 points versus military teams. Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun checks in with a 10-4 ATS mark as a dog against foes with an identical record. Consider as well, that .700 teams playing in Game 11 pretty much have their holiday bowl plans in the making, it is also a major letdown time for these teams dressing up without rest as contented home favorites in these contests. That’s confirmed by the fact that these chalk artists are just 74-82-1 ATS (47%) in this role since 1980. And when these teams are coming off a loss and facing .500 or greater opponents, they fall to 11-26 ATS. Worse, these teams tumble to 1-14 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points.
|
11-19-21 |
Georgia Tech v. Georgia +4 |
|
88-78 |
Loss |
-109 |
11 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Ah, the Clean Old-Fashioned Hate rivalry. This spread seems a bit off -- bet it drops by morning -- so I'll happily take the Dawgs and the points. Tech's lone loss is at home to a MAC school, while Georgia's is at a good Cincinnati team. The SportsLine Projection Model has Tech currently winning by a point and a few others I've checked list UGA as the favorite. Coach Tom Crean's club is led by three good veteran transfers in Aaron Cook, Kario Oguendo and Braelen Bridges.
|
11-19-21 |
Stetson v. Lamar +1.5 |
|
60-59 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Respect to readers if you can tell me where both Stetson and Lamar are located. Or if you know anyone named Stetson or Lamar personally (I don't know them but Georgia QB Stetson Bennett and of course Ravens QB Lamar Jackson). Anyways, this line seems off. The SportsLine Projection Model has Lamar winning by 5. So does ESPN's power rankings. Sagarin has the Cardinals by 2. Stetson has been blown out in both road games and had a quick turnaround/travel after losing Wednesday at Miami of Ohio.
|
11-19-21 |
Southern Illinois v. Colorado -7.5 |
|
67-63 |
Loss |
-102 |
10 h 53 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Early projections show the Buffs should be around 10-point favorites for this Paradise Jam matchup in the Virgin Islands -- I actually attended that once. Quite fun. Colorado hasn't been challenged in a 3-0 start. The Buffs are averaging 90.3 points and shooting 51.5 percent from the field. Southern Illinois lost at Little Rock and beat Austin Peay so an obvious step up here for the Salukis. CU has outrebounded its three foes by 17 per game and will have a massive size advantage here. I'm thinking this spread rises a few points by tipoff.
|
11-19-21 |
Florida International v. Green Bay UNDER 135.5 |
|
63-60 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating; 2 Units These teams have terrible offenses. The Panthers' numbers are inflated from their game against a non-Division I opponent, and the Phoenix went to double overtime in their first game. The Phoenix like to slow the game down and should have no problem doing that against the Panthers. FIU is strong defensively, and both teams are on a back-to-back, which will hurt the offenses. Under is the play.
|
11-19-21 |
Magic +12.5 v. Nets |
|
113-115 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Orlando is truly terrible, but there are rumors Kevin Durant will take the game off -- frankly, the Nets should still win, but not by more than 12 points without the NBA's No. 2 scorer.
|
11-19-21 |
Pacers v. Hornets -1 |
|
118-121 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 9 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hornets recently had a tough road trip where they went 1-4. However, they have bounced back on their current home-stand with a 3-0 record. All three wins were against quality opponents in the Knicks, Warriors and Wizards. With LaMelo Ball leading the way, I like the Hornets to continue their recent hot streak at home.
|
11-19-21 |
Warriors v. Pistons +113 |
|
105-102 |
Loss |
-100 |
5 h 37 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I'm so irked at myself. I had a feeling the Dubs would rest Steph Curry in this game last night after hearing him talk following a win in Cleveland. The spread was 9 then. I was going to play/post it then. However, it was late so I let it go until the morning and it was -7. Then I got tied up in other things. Long story short: Steph, Draymond Green, Otto Porter and Andre Iguodala are all out. If the Pistons at home facing that depleted team on the second of a B2B at the end of a road trip can't win this game, well, the Pistons either need to move back to Fort Wayne or be relegated like AFC Richmond in Ted Lasso.
|
11-19-21 |
George Mason v. James Madison +3 |
|
64-67 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 23 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units we'll take this solid edge and continue to bet on home teams getting points. George Mason is coming off a big win over Maryland, which is probably what is giving JMU the value here (i.e. letdown for Patriots).
|
11-19-21 |
Hofstra +11.5 v. Maryland |
|
67-69 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 39 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This pick is a fade on the Terrapins, who have looked terrible to start this season. They are 3-1, but it is easy to see this team isn’t good. The Terrapins have struggled on both ends but play at such a slow pace it doesn’t show up in the stats. Now they have to play against a good Hofstra team. The Pride are 1-2, but they have looked good and are elite from three-point range. That is where Maryland has had most of its defensive struggles. If the Pride get hot from downtown, they should win this game outright. But for safety, take the points.
|
11-19-21 |
Siena v. Georgetown -15.5 |
|
65-83 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units this spread is too small for Georgetown. Siena has lost all three games by at least 18 points (0-3 ATS). The Saints were given +3 and +3.5 in their two most recent games, and they lost by 20 and 28. Those were against Delaware and Yale, and Georgetown is a level above those teams. Fade Siena until the Saints show they can keep a game anywhere near close.
|
11-19-21 |
Norfolk State +9.5 v. Bowling Green |
|
90-84 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 25 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units We won on a good Norfolk State team -- won the MEAC last year and a game in the First Four of the NCAA Tournament -- on Tuesday against William & Mary and I'm pretty surprised at this number at Bowling Green. The 1-2 Falcons were picked to finish sixth in the MAC and have a loss to Western Carolina, which isn't as good as Norfolk Sate. The SportsLine Projection Model has BGSU winning by 4. So does Sagarin. I will be quite shocked if the Spartans don't cover this spread and frankly think they can win outright.
|
11-18-21 |
Wyoming +1.5 v. Washington |
|
77-72 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 38 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Cowboys have looked great to start this season, dominating on both ends of the floor. Dating back to last season, Wyoming has covered its last eight games. The Cowboys' defense has been spectacular, holding both teams they played under 50 points. The Huskies have struggled offensively to start the season, shooting 33.9 percent. Take Wyoming.
|
11-18-21 |
76ers v. Nuggets -7.5 |
|
103-89 |
Loss |
-105 |
10 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both teams have been hammered by injuries, which makes things a little tricky. The Nuggets likely will be without both Michael Porter Jr. (back) and Will Barton (back), while the 76ers are expected to be missing Joel Embiid (COVID-19), Matisse Thybulle (COVID-19) and Danny Green (hamstring). With those three out on Tuesday, Philadelphia lost by 35 points in Utah. Add in the Sixers' 2-6 record ATS as underdogs and I like Nikola Jokic to lead the Nuggets to a cover.
|
11-18-21 |
Blue Jackets v. Coyotes +138 |
|
5-4 |
Loss |
-100 |
9 h 44 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Blue Jackets only score 2.2 goals per game on the road this season, 1.5 goals fewer than their home average. The Coyotes are coming off a big road win in St. Louis so I think some of that momentum should carry over. The Blue Jackets are significantly worse on the road and they have struggled lately. Elvis Merzlikins has looked human in net while the Coyotes goalies are both capable of putting together a good one. I like the value in the Coyotes at home.
|
11-18-21 |
Jets v. Oilers UNDER 6.5 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 16 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I am contractually obligated to go Under when a game gets to 6.5 goals even though the Oilers are starting backup netminder Stuart Skinner. He did blank Winnipeg for about 20 minutes in the Jets' 5-2 win Tuesday after Mikko Koskinen was pulled. That game only went Over 6.5 on an empty-netter with about 90 seconds left. Frankly, I believe that about 90 percent of losses on an Under 6.5 will only come via an empty-netter, but that's a risk I'm willing to take.
|
11-18-21 |
Washington State v. Idaho +19.5 |
|
109-61 |
Loss |
-110 |
5 h 50 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This spread is about five points too high for the Battle of the Palouse. Are you aware this is the longest continuous running rivalry in the country? It is now because the Ivy League didn't play last season. Wazzu hasn't won a game by more than 19 yet and those were at home. Idaho played both Long Beach State and Fresno State very tough in losses. Transfers Philip Pepple Jr. and Mikey Dixon have shined for the Vandals in the early going. It's a veteran team that is shooting 47.8 percent from behind the arc, ranking first in the Big Sky and 10th in the nation. Teams shoot better from deep at home.
|
11-18-21 |
Rutgers v. DePaul +3.5 |
|
70-73 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 60 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Rutgers is 3-0 but has failed to cover the spread in each game. All three of its wins have come against teams ranked by KenPom No. 230 or lower. The Scarlet Knights have struggled to find their rhythm offensively ever since losing guard Jacob Young in the transfer portal to Oregon. DePaul enters as one of the nation's top rebounding teams and has four players averaging 13 points or better. Take the home underdog getting more than one possession.
|
11-18-21 |
Clippers v. Grizzlies +1.5 |
|
108-120 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Clippers are really thin injury-wise right now as on top of Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and Marcus Morris all being out, which we knew, Nic Batum and Terance Mann probably are both sitting tonight as well. There's only so much Paul George can do by himself. This is also LA's first road game in 13 days and the front end of a B2B. Memphis is rested and healthy. I'd be willing to bet the Grizz are favored by tipoff.
|
11-18-21 |
Stars v. Wild -128 |
|
2-7 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 49 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Wild are 4-2 at home this season and they should bounce back after playing a dud in their first home game back from a road trip. Cam Talbot will be in net and he is 8-4-0 with a 2.91 GAA on the season. The Stars are just 3-4-1 on the road this season and they have been rotating goalies after Braden Holtby was injured. The Wild have won three straight games in this series and 6 of the last 8 home games.
|
11-18-21 |
Sharks v. Blues UNDER 6 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Blues have scored three goals or fewer in five of their past six and face San Jose's James Reimer, whose 1.77 GAA is second in the NHL. Yes, the Blues are starting backup Ville Husso, but he threw a shutout in his lone start this year. The Sharks have scored three or fewer in four of their past six.
|
11-18-21 |
Louisville -19.5 v. Duke |
|
62-22 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinals annihilated Syracuse at home last week, 41-3, and will win their 2021 golden bowl ticket by dropping another ‘L’ on the Duke tonight. The 5-5 Cards are relieved to see the Blue Devils here with Kentucky on deck, as they’ve torched the Devils in each of their only other two meetings in this series, winning both games by an average score of 32-9. We certainly can’t go into battle against that armed only with Duke’s near-lifeless 0-19 SU and 7-12 ATS mark as a 20-point or larger home dog.
|
11-18-21 |
Penguins v. Canadiens +136 |
|
6-0 |
Loss |
-100 |
7 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Penguins have now lost three straight games and they are 5-6-4 on the season with just 1 win in 5 tries on the road. They face the Canadiens, who have also been struggling, but they are much better at home going 3-5-1. Cayden Primeau looked good in his first game of the season against the Rangers despite picking up the loss. I like the value in the Canadiens at home.
|
11-18-21 |
UAB v. South Carolina +2.5 |
|
63-66 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units UAB, the preseason C-USA favorite, is unbeaten but has faced UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and Division III program Rhodes College. Thus, I'm pretty surprised the Blazers in their first road game against a good Power 5 program are giving 2.5 points at South Carolina. One issue for the Blazers in the early going is rebounding and USC has a +45 rebounding edge through three games. Every model I can find has the Gamecocks winning outright -- SportsLine's by two points.
|
11-18-21 |
Marquette v. Ole Miss -3.5 |
|
78-72 |
Loss |
-109 |
3 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Fading Marquette didn't work out for me against Illinois, but I'll try again tonight with Ole Miss. The Rebels have a deep roster, they should commit fewer turnovers than the Illini did, and they're shooting 39.2 percent from deep. The Golden Eagles won't have the home crowd to fuel their pressure. Lay the small number.
|
11-18-21 |
Ohio State v. Xavier +2.5 |
|
65-71 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 44 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units My model is currently at a 57 percent win rate this year, 55-41-1 on the season and 38-20 (66 percent) in the last week. I preface this pick with the full track record because going against a huge team like Ohio State takes some guts and full trust in the model. The numbers are coming back with this game as a pick'em. This is going to be a contest that likely comes down to the final possessions, and in that situation, I'll take the home team with the points. Don't go any lower than +2.5 though.
|
11-18-21 |
New Hampshire v. Providence -13 |
|
58-69 |
Loss |
-105 |
4 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Friars are already battle-tested, going on the road to Wisconsin and coming home with a 63-58 win. They are now hosting a New Hampshire team that recently lost to Marquette, 75-70, but don't let the score fool you. In that loss, New Hampshire made 12-of-27 3-point attempts after going just 3-of-16 from downtown in its season opener. I expect a worse shooting performance tonight, which should allow the much better Providence team to pull away.
|
11-18-21 |
Clemson -180 v. Temple |
|
75-48 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 42 m |
Show
|
Guess I'm in a Carolinas type of mind today as after picking Davidson and South Carolina, I'm backing Clemson in this Shriners Children's Charleston Classic game -- so, a neutral site but basically a home game for the Tigers. Temple might have the best player on the floor in guard Khalif Battle, but I expect Clemson to double him all day and force other Owls to win the game. Not sure they can do that. teams are shooting just 23 percent from deep against the Tigers. I'm not interested in giving Temple four points, and I'm starting to see this rise to five so let's hit this moneyline now before it's no value.
|
11-18-21 |
Green Bay v. NC-Greensboro UNDER 127 |
|
58-60 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 52 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both the Spartans and Phoenix like to play at a slow pace. And they're not good offensively. The Spartans rank 246th and the Phoenix 299th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Spartans are averaging 60.7 points and the Phoenix 55.5, and that includes both teams having played an overtime game. The Spartans' defense looks tough as they are allowing just 56.7 points per game. Go Under.
|
11-18-21 |
St Bonaventure v. Boise State UNDER 131.5 |
|
67-61 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 57 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both of these teams have elite defenses. The Bonnies have allowed just 53.5 points per game, the Broncos 57 points per game. Both play very slow offensively. Both teams like to score in the paint, but these defenses thrive at rim protection. These are two of the worst three-point shooting teams in the nation. Go Under.
|
11-18-21 |
Davidson -110 v. New Mexico State |
|
64-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
2 h 13 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is New Mexico State's first away game of the season at a neutral site in South Carolina -- obviously, pretty long trip for the Aggies but not for Davidson (located in North Carolina if didn't know). Per usual, Davidson is among the country's best shooting teams, hitting 51 percent. Michigan State transfer Foster Loyer has been tremendous. The SportsLine Projection Model has the Wildcats winning by 11. No other model is close to that: ESPN has Davidson by 1.9 points and Sagarin by a point. Thus, we'll do the moneyline.
|
11-17-21 |
Capitals v. Kings -105 |
|
2-0 |
Loss |
-105 |
6 h 28 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Second of a back-to-back for the Caps, who are without five of their top forwards due to injury -- Lars Eller was the latest to join them as out before Tuesday's OT loss in Anaheim. The Kings get back one of their top scorers Wednesday in Viktor Arvidsson. He had missed the past seven games in COVID protocols and has two goals, five points and 32 shots in eight appearances. Kings netminder Jonathan Quick has a 1.98 GAA this year. LA is on a four-game home win streak.
|
11-17-21 |
Bulls +1.5 v. Blazers |
|
107-112 |
Loss |
-105 |
9 h 59 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Both Damian Lillard (abdomen) and Norman Powell (ankle) are listed as questionable for Portland. Losing either player would be significant, considering how little amount of depth the Trail Blazers have. When Lillard sat out against Denver on Sunday, they lost by 29 points. The Bulls are hot right now, winning back-to-back games on the strength of DeMar DeRozan's offensive explosion. I think Chicago could win this game outright, even if Lillard and Powell play. If they don’t, the Bulls could run away with the victory.
|
11-17-21 |
Blackhawks +135 v. Seattle Kraken |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
135 |
3 h 45 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Hawks have won three straight games with their new head coach, but they are still winless on the road. They take on the Kraken who have lost four straight games and 7 of the last 10. The Kraken are just 3-4-0 at home and the Hawks won’t go winless on the road all season. There aren’t many good options tonight with just three games and I think this game is closer to a toss-up, so I like the value in the Hawks to get their first road win.
|
11-17-21 |
Utah Valley +3 v. Long Beach State |
|
84-78 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 43 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Let's grab the points with Utah Valley. The Wolverines are coming off a 12-point win against Pepperdine in which they were 3.5-point underdogs, and my model makes them one-half point favorites versus the Beach. This isn't the biggest edge, but there's a good chance Utah Valley can win outright, and we get to cash in if it's a one-point contest as well.
|
11-17-21 |
UC-Davis v. Pepperdine |
|
67-72 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 37 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Love those pick'em games because if we can't pick a winner outright, what are we doing here? I've had success on Pepperdine dating to last season and will back the Waves again at home. The SportsLine Projection Model has them winning by 11. I don't think that's right. ESPN power rankings has Pepperdine by 8.9 points. Also seems high. Sagarin by 1.5 points. This is the first-ever meeting between Pepperdine and UC Davis.
|
11-17-21 |
Valparaiso v. Stanford -13.5 |
|
60-74 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 10 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Cardinal did get beat by a strong Santa Clara team, but Valparaiso is going to be much easier to defeat. Stanford beat San Jose State by 14 points on Monday, and I think this opponent is similar on a talent level. The Beacons have yet to cover or win this season and allowed Illinois-Chicago to upset them in overtime on Saturday. Stanford should cover the spread.
|
11-17-21 |
Rockets v. Thunder -2.5 |
|
89-101 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is a nice payback spot for the Thunder, who fell 124-91 in Houston on Oct. 22. That remains the Rockets' lone win. OKC had won four straight before losing its last two. We should get a nice bounceback game from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored a season-low 10 points in Monday's loss to the Heat. Houston rookie Jalen Green was minus-37 in Monday's 34-point loss at Memphis, with three turnovers and one assist. He might have a bigger role as a creator if Kevin Porter Jr. (thigh) can't play. Lay the small number.
|
11-17-21 |
Central Arkansas v. Baylor -34.5 |
|
47-92 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 14 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Central Arkansas is off to a cold start. It lost by 35 and 32 to unranked opponents in its first two games. Now, it has to face a Baylor team that is red-hot. KenPom ranks Baylor as the sixth-best team in the nation, while Central Arkansas is terrible on both ends of the court. It is 322nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 346th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Both Bears teams play with pace, which favors a blowout. Lay the points with Baylor.
|
11-17-21 |
NC State v. Oklahoma State -180 |
|
68-74 |
Win
|
100 |
1 h 40 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units This is at a neutral site in Connecticut -- show on CBS Sports Network -- and both played Tuesday. NC State had to work pretty hard to dispatch Central Connecticut, while Okie State had no issues with UMass Lowell. The Pokes have two great transfer players in Bryce Thompson (Kansas) and Moussa Cisse (Memphis). The Wolfpack, meanwhile, lost maybe their best player, Manny Bates, to a season-ending injury in the opener. Like the Pokes to prevail as they are clearly the more talented, deeper team but not giving 4 points, so we'll risk the moneyline price.
|
11-17-21 |
Pacers -6.5 v. Pistons |
|
89-97 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 1 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Pistons already have a limited roster, but things are even worse now that Kelly Olynyk (knee) is out for an extended period. They did beat the Raptors without him, but they lost both of the other two games that he missed by at least 20 points. Those included a 22-point defeat at home at the hands of the Kings on Monday. Look for them to have a hard time scoring enough points to keep up with a Pacers team that should have Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert and Domantas Sabonis available.
|
11-17-21 |
Wizards v. Hornets +1 |
|
87-97 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 10 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Wizards have won five straight to get to 10-3, and Bradley Beal is coming back tonight. But I'll back the Hornets to win their fourth straight because what they're doing is more sustainable. Washington needed a 19-point comeback to beat the lowly Pelicans last time out. Spencer Dinwiddie is coming off amazing games versus New Orleans and Orlando; he'll find it harder to maintain that level versus LaMelo Ball. Back Charlotte to improve to 7-1 ATS in the last eight home meetings.
|
11-17-21 |
Drexel v. St. Joe's +1.5 |
|
78-75 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units ESPN has the Hawks by 2.2 points and Sagarin by 2.7. The Hawks are coming off a convincing 80-60 victory over NEC Champion Mount St. Mary's on Saturday. Drexel won this matchup by four last year, but the Hawks have won the past nine at home in the series.
|
11-17-21 |
Binghamton -140 v. Columbia |
|
77-85 |
Loss |
-140 |
2 h 16 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Sometimes it's hard to find out about key injuries with these smaller schools, but Columbia lost one of its best players, senior forward and captain Ike Nweke, in the season-opening loss to Fordham. He had 11 points, five rebounds and three assists. The Lions have lost both games this season by double digits and are projected as the worst team in the Ivy League. Binghamton has been boosted by St. John's transfer Jonathan McGriff, who is averaging 15.5 points and 5.0 rebounds. The Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. I'm a little ticked I didn't get this at -1 early today so let's do the moneyline to avoid an ATS loss on a very close win.
|
11-16-21 |
Spurs v. Clippers -7.5 |
|
92-106 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 60 m |
Show
|
Los Angeles is looking to begin another winning streak after having its seven-game run snapped by Chicago on Sunday. Paul George is among the top scorers in the NBA with an average of 26.5 points per game and is coming off his fifth double-double of the season as he had 27 points and 11 rebounds against the Bulls. The Spurs are just 1-7 against Western Conference rivals and have allowed at least 114 in three straight contests. Take the Clippers.
|
11-16-21 |
Hurricanes -130 v. Golden Knights |
|
4-2 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Golden Knights already are emaciated at forward due to injury/COVID and now they just lost another one in Jonathan Marchessault. He has nine goals and four assists in 15 games this season. Hard to see the short-handed Knights beating the excellent Hurricanes and Frederik Andersen (1.77 GAA).
|
11-16-21 |
Capitals v. Ducks UNDER 6 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 2 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Some books have this at 5.5 goals so let's grab 6 while Caesars has that available. Anaheim has been shockingly good offensively thus far, but I don't buy that continues. John Gibson, meanwhile, has been great in net overall and especially at home with a 5-1 record and 1.51 GAA. The Caps' Vitek Vanecek has a 2.34 GAA on the year. Washington already is down a few key offensive guys and now Lars Eller (eight points) is iffy. The Under is 4-1 in Ducks' last five games as a home underdog.
|
11-16-21 |
76ers +10.5 v. Jazz |
|
85-120 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The 76ers have gone 0-4 SU and ATS without Joel Embiid, but I like them to be competitive tonight at Utah. The Jazz have lost four of five and have been getting punished inside. Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond should have big games. The line is inflated based on Utah's performance at home last season. Take the points.
|
11-16-21 |
Nevada v. Santa Clara +4 |
|
74-96 |
Win
|
100 |
12 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Santa Clara has four guys averaging at least 14 points -- a lot of returning talent -- and ranks fifth nationally in shooting percentage (58.1) and eighth in assists per game (23.0). Nevada is solid but should not be giving 3.5 points on the road, and it wouldn't surprise me to see this number dip soon.
|
11-16-21 |
Seton Hall +8.5 v. Michigan |
|
67-65 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 30 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Michigan 7-foot sophomore Hunter Dickinson gets his first real challenge tonight against Seton Hall, which features 6-10 Tyrese Samuel and 7-2 Ike Obiagu. The Pirates are relishing the underdog role as they visit Ann Arbor as part of the Gavitt Tipoff Games. They shouldn't be fazed too much by the hostile atmosphere: their average age is 21.3 years old. The Wolverines, of course, are loaded again, but they are shooting 56.5 percent from the free-throw line. That could come into play late. Grab the points.
|
11-16-21 |
Sharks v. Wild -176 |
|
4-1 |
Loss |
-176 |
10 h 11 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Wild return home off a successful three-game road trip to open a brief two-game homestand against the reeling Sharks on Tuesday night. I like their chances of extending their home dominance. Note that the Wild check in 19-7 in their last 26 games following consecutive road contests, outscoring the opposition by 1.1 goals on average in that spot. On the flip side, the Sharks are a miserable 12-34 in their last 46 contests following consecutive road tilts over the last two-plus seasons, outscored by a wide margin of 1.4 goals on average in that situation.
|
11-16-21 |
Oilers v. Jets UNDER 6.5 |
|
2-5 |
Loss |
-120 |
7 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units A rare total of 6.5 in the NHL! I honestly don't care who is playing, I'll always take Under this. Edmonton can be awesome offensively at times but also has scored two goals in two of its past four. Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck has a 1.96 GAA at home this year. This, my friends, is a no-brainer. The only way I see losing this is a 3-3 tie at the end of regulation but we probably will not see a total of 7 in the entire regular season. The Under is 4-0-1 in Winnipeg's past five at home.
|
11-16-21 |
Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 |
|
21-22 |
Win
|
100 |
10 h 44 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units When Eastern Michigan hosts Western Michigan in Mac action tonight they will do so knowing the eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in Last Home Games when not coming off a double-digit loss and hosting a foe coming off a spread loss. EMU is also 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS on Tuesdays in conference play, including 4-0 SUATS as a dog. With the visiting Broncos riding a 0-4 ATS losing skid as favorites on Tuesdays in MAC games, we're going with EMU tonight.
|
11-16-21 |
Canadiens v. Rangers -180 |
|
2-3 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 33 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I expect this ML to only rise today -- Montreal has been obliterated by injury and probably will have to start third-string goaltender Sam Montembeault again, and he has struggled. The Rangers enter on a three-game winning streak and have the much better goalie in Igor Shesterkin. The Canadiens are 1-10 in their past 11 on the road.
|
11-16-21 |
Flames v. Flyers +107 |
|
1-2 |
Win
|
107 |
8 h 34 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Carter Hart is 4-3-2 with a 2.32 GAA and .931 save percentage on the season and Jacob Markstrom has been hit or miss since his incredible start to the season. However, Markstrom has lost 4 of his last 5 games while the Flames have lost 5 of their last 7 games overall. Ryan Ellis is out of the lineup for the Flyers but the Flyers at plus money at home is too good to pass up against a team who has lost 5 of 7. I like the value in the Flyers.
|
11-16-21 |
Islanders v. Panthers -165 |
|
1-6 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 27 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Islanders are coming off a loss last night in Tampa Bay but it was more the way they lost. They expended a lot of energy with all the badblood between these teams facing each other in the last two playoffs. Now they face the Panthers in Florida before they head back to New York for their first home game of the season on Saturday. Sergei Bobrovsky will face Ilya Sorokin and both goaltenders have been very good this season. However, the Islanders are still struggling to score, as evidenced last night, so they shouldn’t be able to keep up with the Islanders. The Islanders should be looking forward to their home opener and the Panthers have yet to lose a game at home this season.
|
11-16-21 |
James Madison v. Eastern Kentucky -160 |
|
79-78 |
Loss |
-160 |
10 h 31 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units EKU posted a 22-7 record in 2020-21 and finished eighth in the nation in scoring offense at 82 points per game. The Colonels have showed no signs of slowing down this year, putting up 91.0 ppg in a 3-0 start. Eastern Kentucky is 18-3 in its last 21 home games. James Madison plays its first road game of the season and that matters. ESPN's power index has it by 4.2 and Sagarin by 4. Thus, I'm going to take the money line.
|
11-16-21 |
William & Mary v. Norfolk State -2.5 |
|
74-91 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 19 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Spartans were named the team to beat in the MEAC after winning it last year and reaching the Big Dance and are 3-0 for the first time 1995-96. William & Mary has lost its first two games by double digits. These schools are about 45 miles apart on I-64 in Virginia. The Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games. I've seen this number rise to -3 already at some books so let's lock it in.
|
11-16-21 |
Winthrop -2.5 v. Middle Tennessee |
|
65-76 |
Loss |
-106 |
9 h 11 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Normally, I might worry that this is the school's first road game of the year, but the Eagles have the nation's longest road win streak dating back to last season with 12 straight. D.J. Burns Jr. leads Winthrop in scoring at 23.0 ppg while shooting an absurd 72 percent. Middle Tennessee is 2-0 but has played two cupcakes. Winthrop is 16-5 ATS in its past 21 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
|
11-16-21 |
Wright State v. Purdue -16 |
|
52-96 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 32 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Boilermakers are loaded with talent, and according to KenPom, they rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency. They won their first two games by 29 and 25 points. Now they get to face the Wright State Raiders, who let up 96 points to Marshall in their last game. Lay the points.
|
11-15-21 |
Long Beach State +29 v. UCLA |
|
79-100 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 56 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Long Beach State is not a bad team -- it has a handful of good fifth-year seniors and added Joel Murray, a former Division II All-American, via transfer. He had 28 points for the Beach in the opener. I'm not saying UCLA is going to lose this game obviously, but it would be natural letdown spot off last Friday's big win in a potential Final Four preview vs. Villanova. For what it's worth, two seasons ago the Beach only lost by four at UCLA. I'd think they can stay within this big number.
|
11-15-21 |
Bulls -1 v. Lakers |
|
121-103 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 41 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units These teams are in a similar spot. They both played Sunday (and won) and are missing a key star. The Lakers are without LeBron James (abdomen) and the Bulls are without Nikola Vucevic (COVID-19). On the bright side for the Bulls, Coby White is expected to make his season debut. The Bulls still have a lot of firepower with Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Lonzo Ball. I think Ball and Alex Caruso will make things difficult for Lakers guard Russell Westbrook and the Bulls get the win Monday.
|
11-15-21 |
Providence +5.5 v. Wisconsin |
|
63-58 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 35 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I believe Providence has a more complete roster than Wisconsin, returning four starters from last year's team - including big man Nate Watson. The Badgers will have no answer for Watson, who is averaging 18 points, eight rebounds and two blocks so far this season. I think the Friars are more than capable of winning the game outright, so I love taking them with the points here.
|
11-15-21 |
Rams -3.5 v. 49ers |
|
10-31 |
Loss |
-103 |
11 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units As far as the Rams are concerned, they will be monitoring QB Matthew Stafford’s inured back. At halftime last week he was just 9-of-16 for 62 yards and the pair of picks. A bigger problem looms on the other sideline where slumping San Francisco is just 1-11 the last dozen games when playing at home in Santa Clara. Frisco appears destined for its sixth losing season in seven years. With Los Angeles 5-1 ATS as a division road favorite of late, and the Niners 0-4 SUATS at home this season, as well as 1-3 SUATS in their last four games under the Monday Night lights, we’ll back the better team tonight.
|
11-15-21 |
Rockets +11 v. Grizzlies |
|
102-136 |
Loss |
-106 |
8 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Coach Stephen Silas suggested he's going to change the starting lineup of his 1-12 Rockets, and a good move would be benching Daniel Theis. Houston has been outscored by 21 points per 100 possessions with Theis on the floor. More minutes for 19-year-old Alperen Sengun (9.4 ppg, 4.8 rpg) would be a plus. Either way, look for Houston to be more competitive tonight against the NBA's worst defensive team. Before getting blown out by Phoenix, the Rockets had played seven straight games in which they lost by 13 or less. Take the points.
|
11-15-21 |
Suns -3.5 v. Wolves |
|
99-96 |
Loss |
-109 |
6 h 15 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Suns could be forced to play without Deandre Ayton (leg) for the sixth straight game. His absences haven’t slowed them down, though, considering that they are 5-0 with him out. They are 4-1 ATS on the road this season, which is where they will be again Monday. This could be another favorable matchup, considering the Timberwolves are just 1-6 ATS at home. They have lost five straight at home, four of which they lost by at least nine points.
|
11-15-21 |
Southern Miss +14.5 v. TCU |
|
51-83 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 5 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Southern Miss could not find the basket from long distance against Louisiana on Friday. The Golden Eagles went 2-for-19 from 3-point range and and committed 25 turnovers while losing by 21 points. I think we are seeing a reaction to that performance in this line. I don't know if TCU is good enough to win by 15. The Horned Frogs only beat McNeese by 16 points in their season opener, and McNeese is consistently ranked among the bottom 15-20 teams in the nation. Grab Southern Miss and the points.
|
11-15-21 |
Kings -4.5 v. Pistons |
|
129-107 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 46 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units We're getting strong value with them at this number. Sacramento has had two days off after a stretch of four games in six days during which it went 0-4. The Pistons are coming off a 2-1 road trip but have lost three straight at home and four of five overall on their own court. Take the Kings.
|
11-15-21 |
Celtics -2.5 v. Cavs |
|
98-92 |
Win
|
100 |
4 h 7 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units The Celtics have had two days to stew over blowing a 19-point lead in Saturday's 91-89 loss in Cleveland. For the rematch, they get Al Horford and Josh Richardson back in the lineup. Look for Jayson Tatum (1 of 8 from 3-point range, 8 of 22 overall, six turnovers) to play much better as the Celtics get payback.
|
11-15-21 |
Islanders v. Lightning -124 |
|
1-4 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 9 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units It's rare to find the Lightning, at home, in this price range. While the Isles can be fairly tough against bad teams, they're 0-6 their last six against teams with a winning record. They typically don't fare too well here either. The home team has taken each of the past four meetings. You may recall that those four games came in the playoffs last year. (Tampa won in seven, winning each of their final three here.) In fact, the Lightning won the last two meetings, here at Tampa, by a combined score of 9-0. Tampa was laying -180 and -187 in those games. The Isles are growing weary from a long road trip.
|
11-15-21 |
Red Wings v. Blue Jackets -125 |
|
3-5 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 36 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Columbus goaltender Elvis Merzlikins has allowed nine goals and lost both starts against the New York Rangers this season but given up just eight goals in five starts against everyone else and won them all. The Jackets are 5-1 in the past six at home vs. the Wings.
|
11-15-21 |
The Citadel +3.5 v. Presbyterian |
|
70-74 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 51 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units I'll take the Citadel to give Presbyterian some trouble Monday. The Bulldogs just beat Pittsburgh outright by 15 when they were +10.5-point underdogs at the close. I think they will again outperform their expectations. The model agrees, making this game a pick'em. Take the points.
|
11-15-21 |
Illinois -7.5 v. Marquette |
|
66-67 |
Loss |
-110 |
7 h 48 m |
Show
|
Rating: 2 Units Maryland transfer Darryl Morsell (23.5 ppg) is carrying Shaka Smart's new team, but the other Golden Eagles are 8 for 41 from 3-point range. Tonight they host a loaded Illinois team. The Illini are relishing the chance to show they go a lot deeper than Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. Dosunmo now plays for the Chicago Bulls, while Cockburn is serving the final game of a suspension. Led by Coleman Hawkins, Jacob Grandison, Trent Frazier and Andre Curbelo, the Illini have held their first two opponents to 33.6 percent from the field. Lay the points.
|
11-15-21 |
IUPU-Indianapolis v. Denver UNDER 133 |
|
47-63 |
Win
|
100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
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Rating: 2 Units These teams have looked terrible offensively. Out of 358 teams, the Jaguars are ranked 341st and the Pioneers 346th in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom. With the slow tempo that the Jaguars like to play at, this game won’t come close to this number. Under is the play.
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11-14-21 |
Blazers v. Nuggets -6.5 |
Top |
95-124 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 14 m |
Show
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Rating: 3 Unit NBA Play of the Day The Trail Blazers have been bad on the road this season, posting a 1-6 record there ATS. Now, they’ll have another uphill battle against the Nuggets with Damian Lillard (abdomen) ruled out. While he’s struggled with his efficiency, he’s still averaged 20 points per game. Filling in for him will be the likes of Anfernee Simons and Dennis Smith Jr. The Nuggets could roll here.
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11-14-21 |
Canucks v. Ducks -140 |
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1-5 |
Win
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100 |
10 h 8 m |
Show
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Rating: 2 Units The Ducks are the hottest team in hockey right now and they get to face a reeling Canucks team who has lost 3 straight and 7 of their last 9 games. The Ducks have won 6 straight games and the Canucks are playing the second game of a back-to-back. The Ducks are 5-2-1 at home this season so I will ride them while they’re hot.
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11-14-21 |
Texas State v. Vanderbilt -7 |
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60-79 |
Win
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100 |
6 h 8 m |
Show
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Rating: 2 Units Vanderbilt hosts a Texas State team that is coming off an 84-59 loss at LSU. The Commodores return two starters from last year's team - including Scotty Pippen Jr., who averaged 20.8 points last season and was a Preseason First Team All-SEC selection. In Vanderbilt's 91-72 season-opening win against Alabama State, it shot just 28.6 percent from 3-point range. Texas State allowed LSU to shoot 55 percent from beyond the arc, so I expect Vanderbilt to bounce back from long distance and cover at home.
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11-14-21 |
Minnesota v. Princeton OVER 131.5 |
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87-80 |
Win
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100 |
8 h 43 m |
Show
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Rating: 2 Unit The model makes this one 138.5, which is a very strong play on a total. I think we see a good deal of 3-pointers in this game, which should help us cash in. Princeton took 31 shots from long distance against South Carolina and Minnesota has averaged 20 3-point attempts in its first two games. If the deep shots fall at any decent rate, this one should get above 133. Take the Over.
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